德州儀器 (TXN) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到德州儀器第四季度和年終收益電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Ron Slaymaker.

現在我想將會議轉交給 Ron Slaymaker。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2011 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2011 年收益電話會議。

As usual, Kevin March, TI's CFO is with me today.

像往常一樣，TI 的首席財務官 Kevin March 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through TI's website.

此電話會議正在網絡上直播，可通過 TI 網站訪問。

A replay will be available to the web.

網絡上將提供重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from Management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the earning release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more recent distribution.

我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益發布中包含的安全港聲明，以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以了解最近的發行情況。

Our mid-quarter update is scheduled for this quarter for March 8.

我們的季度中期更新計劃於 3 月 8 日在本季度進行。

At that time, we expect to adjust the revenue and earnings guidance ranges as appropriate.

屆時，我們預計將適當調整收入和盈利指導範圍。

There are a number of important things taking place in our market and inside of TI.

我們的市場和 TI 內部正在發生許多重要的事情。

Similar to our October call, we will provide additional detail during today's call to help you understand our results and outlook.

與我們 10 月份的電話會議類似，我們將在今天的電話會議中提供更多詳細信息，以幫助您了解我們的結果和展望。

Let me start with the market environment.

先從市場環境說起。

As you can see, the fourth-quarter revenue of $3.42 billion was significantly stronger than the reduced outlook we had provided during the mid-quarter update.

如您所見，第四季度 34.2 億美元的收入明顯強於我們在季度中期更新期間提供的下調前景。

Higher-than-expected revenue came in all our major product lines.

我們所有主要產品線的收入都高於預期。

We believe this strength relative to our outlook is consistent with a historical bottoming pattern in the industry.

我們認為，相對於我們的前景而言，這種實力與該行業的歷史觸底模式是一致的。

The slowdown that began in the third quarter continued in the fourth, during which customers and distributors were significantly reducing inventory.

第三季度開始的放緩在第四季度繼續，在此期間客戶和分銷商大幅減少庫存。

In December, with low levels of customer inventory and short TI product lead times, we experienced significant strength compared to what our backlog indicated at the start of the month.

12 月，由於客戶庫存水平低且 TI 產品交貨時間短，與月初的積壓情況相比，我們的實力顯著增強。

Our belief, based on historical trends, is that the semiconductor market bottomed in fourth quarter 2011, or else will bottom in first quarter 2012.

根據歷史趨勢，我們認為半導體市場將在 2011 年第四季度觸底，否則將在 2012 年第一季度觸底。

Our important market indicators were consistent with this belief.

我們的重要市場指標與這一信念一致。

New orders declined 7% sequentially, booked-to-bill was 0.84, and distribution inventory dropped to historically low levels.

新訂單環比下降 7%，預訂出貨比為 0.84，分銷庫存降至歷史低位。

So despite low levels of backlog and visibility, we are forecasting that our first quarter revenue will decline only about 2%, compared with the seasonal average decline of about 4%, excluding baseband.

因此，儘管積壓和可見度較低，但我們預測我們第一季度的收入將僅下降約 2%，而季節性平均下降約 4%，不包括基帶。

Second, as we enter 2012, we are beginning the final phase of our baseband business.

其次，進入 2012 年，我們開始了基帶業務的最後階段。

Baseband revenue was $279 million in the fourth quarter, and we expect it will fall to about $75 million in the first quarter, and remain between $50 million and $100 million per quarter during 2012.

第四季度基帶收入為 2.79 億美元，我們預計第一季度將降至 7500 萬美元左右，2012 年每個季度將保持在 5000 萬至 1 億美元之間。

At that level, it will be only a couple percent of our total revenue.

在那個水平上，它只占我們總收入的百分之幾。

I believe investors will be pleased to see our Company results driven by our core businesses of analog and embedded processing, and not the decline in baseband.

我相信投資者會很高興看到我們公司的業績是由我們的模擬和嵌入式處理核心業務推動的，而不是基帶業務的下滑。

Third, the fourth-quarter results include a full quarter of the National Semiconductor operation now called Silicon Valley Analog.

第三，第四季度的業績包括美國國家半導體公司現在稱為矽谷模擬業務的整個季度。

Our confidence in accelerating the revenue growth from the national portfolio continues to grow, as we spend more time with customers and see the impact of our larger sales force.

隨著我們花更多的時間與客戶相處並看到我們更大的銷售團隊的影響，我們對加速全國投資組合收入增長的信心繼續增強。

Kevin will detail the accounting charges associated with National, both in the fourth quarter and the first, and provide an outlook across the remainder of 2012.

Kevin 將詳細說明第四季度和第一季度與 National 相關的會計費用，並提供 2012 年剩餘時間的展望。

Finally, we announced today our plans to close two older manufacturing sites.

最後，我們今天宣布了關閉兩個舊生產基地的計劃。

Kevin will detail both the charges and planned savings from these changes.

Kevin 將詳細說明這些變化帶來的費用和計劃節省的費用。

Let's now walk through the fourth-quarter results.

現在讓我們來看看第四季度的結果。

Total revenue of $3.42 billion declined 3% from a year ago, and was down 1% sequentially.

總收入為 34.2 億美元，同比下降 3%，環比下降 1%。

The positive contribution from a full quarter of Silicon Valley Analog revenue, and growth in wireless revenue, especially from OMAP applications processors, helped offset declines elsewhere.

矽谷模擬收入四分之一的積極貢獻，以及無線收入的增長，尤其是來自 OMAP 應用處理器的收入，幫助抵消了其他地方的下滑。

Our earnings per share were $0.25 on a GAAP basis or $0.48 when total acquisition-related and restructuring charges are excluded.

按 GAAP 計算，我們的每股收益為 0.25 美元，如果不包括與收購相關的總費用和重組費用，則每股收益為 0.48 美元。

Analog revenue of $1.7 billion grew 12% from a year ago and 9% sequentially, reflecting the inclusion of a full quarter of SVA revenue.

模擬收入為 17 億美元，較上年同期增長 12%，環比增長 9%，反映出包括 SVA 收入的整個季度。

Our other three analog businesses, HPA, Power, and HVAL declined sequentially, with HPA down most.

我們的其他三個模擬業務 HPA、Power 和 HVAL 依次下降，其中 HPA 下降最多。

Last quarter, we provided historical data for SVA on our website.

上個季度，我們在網站上提供了 SVA 的歷史數據。

If you compare its July through September revenue with the fourth quarter, it would have trended in a downward range similar to the remainder of our analog businesses.

如果將其 7 月至 9 月的收入與第四季度進行比較，它的下降趨勢與我們模擬業務的其餘部分類似。

Like HPA, SVA has exposure to the industrial market, which has been weaker than the overall market recently.

與 HPA 一樣，SVA 也涉足工業市場，該市場近期弱於整體市場。

I realize there's also interest in the impact of the Thailand floods.

我知道大家也對泰國洪水的影響感興趣。

Our area of most direct exposure is our analog storage product line.

我們最直接接觸的領域是我們的模擬存儲產品線。

This revenue declined over 20% compared with the year-ago period, and sequentially.

與去年同期相比，這一收入環比下降了 20% 以上。

Encouragingly, the month of December was our strongest month of the quarter, as our customers began to recover.

令人鼓舞的是，隨著我們的客戶開始復蘇，12 月是我們本季度最強勁的月份。

Embedded processing revenue declined 18% in both comparisons.

在這兩個比較中，嵌入式處理收入下降了 18%。

As we indicated at our mid-quarter update, communications infrastructure was especially weak in the quarter, with revenue down about 40% sequentially, and compared with the year-ago quarter.

正如我們在季度中期更新中指出的那樣，本季度通信基礎設施尤其薄弱，與去年同期相比，收入環比下降約 40%。

This decline was a result of market weakness, especially due to particular service providers in the US that had put a temporary hold on their capital spending.

這種下降是市場疲軟的結果，特別是由於美國的特定服務提供商暫時停止了資本支出。

Our position within our customer base remains strong, and by the end of the quarter we began to see some recovery in their demand.

我們在客戶群中的地位依然強勁，到本季度末，我們開始看到他們的需求有所復甦。

Nonetheless, these products are highly complex, and are some of our more profitable products, which also negatively affected our mix in this segment, and the Company overall.

儘管如此，這些產品非常複雜，並且是我們利潤更高的產品，這也對我們在這一領域的組合以及整個公司產生了負面影響。

Embedded processing catalog products, with their exposure to the industrial market, were also weak, with double-digit percentage declines in both comparisons.

面向工業市場的嵌入式處理目錄產品也表現疲軟，兩項比較均出現兩位數的百分比下降。

Products for automotive applications grew double digits from a year ago, and were about even sequentially.

汽車應用產品與一年前相比增長了兩位數，並且幾乎持平。

In wireless, revenue declined 6% from a year ago, but grew 24% sequentially.

在無線領域，收入較上年同期下降 6%，但環比增長 24%。

Sequentially, all of the product lines grew, including OMAP applications processors, connectivity products and baseband.

隨後，所有產品線都在增長，包括 OMAP 應用處理器、連接產品和基帶。

OMAP made up the strong majority of this growth as we benefited from new product introductions at multiple customers and their associated-channel sales.

OMAP 佔這一增長的絕大部分，因為我們受益於多個客戶的新產品介紹及其相關渠道銷售。

In our Other segment, revenue declined 20% from a year ago, and declined 29% sequentially.

在我們的其他部門，收入比一年前下降了 20%，環比下降了 29%。

Calculator revenue declined seasonal, a little more than $100 million compared with the third quarter.

計算器收入季節性下降，與第三季度相比略高於 1 億美元。

TLP revenue was also relatively weak following our strong third-quarter recovery from supply issues associated with the earthquake earlier in the year.

在我們第三季度從今年早些時候地震相關的供應問題中強勁復甦後，TLP 收入也相對疲軟。

Custom ASIC products declined, reflecting their high exposure to the communications infrastructure market.

定制 ASIC 產品下降，反映出它們對通信基礎設施市場的高度敞口。

I will note that the fourth quarter was the last quarter that we will receive revenue from Spansion as part of our transitional supply agreement following our purchase of the Aizu fab in Japan in 2010.

我要指出的是，第四季度是我們在 2010 年購買日本會津工廠後作為過渡供應協議的一部分從 Spansion 獲得收入的最後一個季度。

Revenue in the fourth quarter from this agreement was about $30 million.

該協議第四季度的收入約為 3000 萬美元。

In distribution, resales -- or sales out of the channel -- declined 8% sequentially.

在分銷方面，轉售（或渠道外銷售額）環比下降了 8%。

Growth was about the same, whether SVA was included or excluded from both periods.

無論 SVA 是否包含在兩個時期內，增長都大致相同。

Inventory at distributors, which now includes our SVA inventory, declined by about half a week in the quarter to 6.5 weeks.

分銷商的庫存（現在包括我們的 SVA 庫存）在本季度減少了大約半週，降至 6.5 週。

Now, Kevin will review profitability and our outlook.

現在，凱文將回顧盈利能力和我們的前景。

Thanks, Ron, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，羅恩，大家下午好。

Let me start by walking through some of the charges in the quarter.

讓我首先介紹一下本季度的一些費用。

Total charges in the quarter were $0.23, including $0.16 of total acquisition-related charges and $0.07 restructuring charges.

本季度的總費用為 0.23 美元，包括 0.16 美元的總收購相關費用和 0.07 美元的重組費用。

Let me explain each.

讓我逐一解釋。

As you will recall, we said in October that our total acquisition-related charges would be in two separate income-statement lines in the fourth quarter.

你會記得，我們在 10 月份表示，我們與收購相關的總費用將在第四季度的兩個單獨的損益表中顯示。

We've consolidated most of those costs, such as restructuring costs, transaction costs, retention bonuses, and amortization of intangibles on the income statement line that we've identified as acquisition charges.

我們已將其中大部分成本合併，例如重組成本、交易成本、保留獎金和我們已確定為收購費用的損益表中的無形資產攤銷。

In the fourth quarter, we had $153 million of acquisition charges on this line.

第四季度，我們在這條線上的收購費用為 1.53 億美元。

Also, we discussed last quarter, accounting rules require that we write up the inventory that we initially acquired as part of the acquisition to fair value, and then recognize this expense as part of cost of revenue as the inventory is sold.

此外，我們在上個季度討論過，會計規則要求我們將最初作為收購的一部分獲得的存貨記為公允價值，然後在出售存貨時將此費用確認為收入成本的一部分。

In the fourth quarter, we had $103 million of acquisition charges, primarily associated with the write-up of inventory.

第四季度，我們有 1.03 億美元的購置費用，主要與庫存增記有關。

Going forward, although we have now depleted the inventory we acquired directly from National, we will have one additional quarter of acquisition charges included in cost of revenue.

展望未來，雖然我們現在已經耗盡了我們直接從 National 獲得的庫存，但我們將額外四分之一的收購費用計入收入成本。

This is associated with our discontinuance of one of National's distributors.

這與我們終止了 National 的一位經銷商有關。

In this case, we acquired the distributor's entire SVA inventory at fair value.

在這種情況下，我們以公允價值收購了分銷商的全部 SVA 存貨。

Therefore, cost of revenue in the first quarter and include a $20 million acquisition-related charge.

因此，第一季度的收入成本包括 2000 萬美元的收購相關費用。

After the first quarter, we expect the ongoing acquisition-related expenses and cost of revenue to be immaterial, and we will not call these out separately.

第一季度之後，我們預計持續的收購相關費用和收入成本將不重要，我們不會單獨提出這些費用。

So the total acquisition-related charges in the fourth quarter are the $153 million on the acquisition charges line of the income statement, plus the $103 million including cost of revenue, for a total of $256 million.

因此，第四季度與收購相關的總費用為損益表收購費用行的 1.53 億美元，加上包括收入成本在內的 1.03 億美元，總計 2.56 億美元。

This negatively impacted EPS in the fourth quarter by $0.16.

這對第四季度的每股收益產生了 0.16 美元的負面影響。

Also in the quarter, we have restructuring charges associated with our planned closure of two factory sites.

同樣在本季度，我們有與計劃關閉兩個工廠相關的重組費用。

We announced today that we will close two older 6-inch wafer fabs in Hiji, Japan, and Houston, Texas.

我們今天宣布，我們將關閉位於日本日出市和得克薩斯州休斯敦的兩家較舊的 6 英寸晶圓廠。

Both of these sites have made significant contributions and demonstrate the tremendous cash flow potential associated with analog products where factory lives are literally measured in decades.

這兩個站點都做出了重大貢獻，並展示了與模擬產品相關的巨大現金流潛力，而模擬產品的工廠壽命實際上是以幾十年為單位來衡量的。

Our Hiji fab is 32 years old, and our Houston fab is 45 years old, and we are now at the point where it makes financial sense to transition the remaining products to more advanced factories.

我們的 Hiji 工廠已有 32 年曆史，我們的休斯頓工廠已有 45 年曆史，我們現在正處於將剩餘產品轉移到更先進工廠的財務意義所在。

Combined, these two factories supported about 4% of TI's revenue in 2011, and each employs about 500 people.

2011 年，這兩家工廠合計貢獻了 TI 約 4% 的收入，每家工廠約有 500 名員工。

The charge for these closures is estimated at $215 million, of which $112 million was taken in the fourth quarter, and the remainder will occur rateably over the next seven quarters.

這些關閉的費用估計為 2.15 億美元，其中 1.12 億美元是在第四季度收取的，其餘部分將在接下來的七個季度中按比例發生。

Annual savings will be about $100 million once the transition is complete.

一旦過渡完成，每年將節省約 1 億美元。

You can find the $112 million charge on the restructuring charges line of the income statement.

您可以在損益表的重組費用行中找到 1.12 億美元的費用。

This same line will carry the remaining charges in future quarters.

同一條線路將在未來幾個季度承擔剩餘費用。

The EPS impact in the fourth quarter of the $112 million charge is $0.07.

1.12 億美元費用對第四季度每股收益的影響為 0.07 美元。

So in summary, total acquisition-related and restructuring charges in the quarter reduced our reported EPS by $0.23.

因此，總而言之，本季度與收購相關和重組的總費用使我們報告的每股收益減少了 0.23 美元。

When you review our segment results, all of these charges are carried in our Other segment.

當您查看我們的分部結果時，所有這些費用都在我們的其他分部中進行。

Gross profit at $1.55 billion declined 11% sequentially.

毛利潤為 15.5 億美元，環比下降 11%。

There were three items that negatively impacted gross profit and gross margin in the fourth quarter.

對第四季度毛利和毛利率產生負面影響的項目有三項。

First, underutilization was significant in the quarter, as we reduced production load-ins to avoid excess inventory.

首先，本季度的利用率很低，因為我們減少了生產裝載量以避免庫存過剩。

We were utilizing just a little over half of our total factory capacity in the quarter, and the amount expensed with this underutilization was about $110 million, which is about $20 million higher than the third quarter underutilization charge.

我們在本季度使用了工廠總產能的一半多一點，未充分利用的費用約為 1.1 億美元，比第三季度的未充分利用費用高出約 2000 萬美元。

As demand returns and we increase factory utilization again, this expense will reduce.

隨著需求回升，我們再次提高工廠利用率，這筆費用將會減少。

Second, there was the recognition of the $103 million acquisition-related write-up that I previously described.

其次，承認了我之前描述的 1.03 億美元的與收購相關的增記。

Third, we took a charge for $44 million for excess baseband inventory.

第三，我們為超額基帶庫存收取了 4400 萬美元的費用。

Gross margin in the quarter was 45.3%.

本季度毛利率為 45.3%。

It's interesting to adjust this amount to exclude the impact of the acquisition-related charge, and the baseband inventory charge.

調整此金額以排除收購相關費用和基帶庫存費用的影響很有趣。

In that case, our gross margin increases 430 basis points to almost 50%.

在這種情況下，我們的毛利率將增加 430 個基點，達到近 50%。

The closest recent utilization comparison is 2Q 2009 when utilization was in the mid-50s%, or about 5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter.

最近的利用率比較是 2009 年第二季度，當時利用率處於 50% 左右，比第四季度高出約 5 個百分點。

In the second quarter of 2009, gross margin was 4 to 5 points below the adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter, despite the higher utilization level.

2009 年第二季度，儘管利用率水平較高，但毛利率比第四季度調整後的毛利率低 4 至 5 個百分點。

This improvement in gross margin reflects a combination of improved mix and more efficient and cost-effective factory operations.

毛利率的提高反映了產品組合的改善以及工廠運營效率和成本效益的提高。

As our utilization improves from here, so will our gross margin.

隨著我們的利用率從這裡提高，我們的毛利率也會提高。

Operating expenses of $918 million increased $135 million compared with the prior quarter.

營業費用為 9.18 億美元，較上一季度增加 1.35 億美元。

Most of this increase was the result of including a full quarter of Silicon Valley Analog's results, compared with only a few days in the last quarter.

這一增長主要是由於包括了 Silicon Valley Analog 的整個四分之一的業績，而上一季度只有幾天。

There was also a negative transitional effect associated with the catch-up adjustments that were made to the variable components of our compensation plans in the third quarter that did not recur in the fourth quarter.

第三季度對我們薪酬計劃的可變部分進行的追趕調整也產生了負面的過渡效應，而第四季度沒有發生。

Our annual effective tax rate was lowered from our 25% estimate to 24%.

我們的年度有效稅率從我們的 25% 估計下調至 24%。

The cumulative adjustment for this change and the net discrete tax benefit of $11 million lowered our tax rate for the quarter to 15%.

這一變化的累積調整和 1100 萬美元的淨離散稅收收益將我們本季度的稅率降低到 15%。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $298 million, or $0.25 per share.

第四季度淨收入為 2.98 億美元，合每股 0.25 美元。

Again, in the EPS calculation, please note that accounting rules require that we allocate a portion of net income to any unvested restricted stock units on which we paid dividend equivalents.

同樣，在 EPS 計算中，請注意會計規則要求我們將一部分淨收入分配給我們支付股息等價物的任何未歸屬限制性股票單位。

In the fourth quarter, the amount of net income excluded from the EPS calculation was $5 million.

第四季度，不計入 EPS 計算的淨收入為 500 萬美元。

If you don't make this adjustment, you will likely calculate EPS to be a penny higher than we had reported.

如果您不進行此調整，您計算出的每股收益可能會比我們報告的高出一美分。

I'll leave most of the cash flow and balance sheet items for you to review in the release, however, let me make a few comments.

我將把大部分現金流量和資產負債表項目留給您在新聞稿中查看，但是，讓我發表一些評論。

Cash flow from operations was $970 million, down $170 million from last quarter.

運營現金流為 9.7 億美元，比上一季度減少 1.7 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $152 million in the quarter, down from $193 million in the prior quarter.

本季度資本支出為 1.52 億美元，低於上一季度的 1.93 億美元。

We used $300 million in the quarter to re-purchase 10.4 million shares of TI common stock and pay dividends of $193 million.

我們在本季度用了 3 億美元回購了 1040 萬股 TI 普通股，並支付了 1.93 億美元的股息。

We reduced our inventory by $177 million in the quarter, a decline that's primarily due to the recognition of the fair value write-up of the acquired inventory as well as our action to produce production load-ins.

我們在本季度減少了 1.77 億美元的庫存，這主要是由於確認了所收購庫存的公允價值增記以及我們採取生產裝載的行動。

It also includes the baseband inventory charge.

它還包括基帶庫存費用。

Inventory days were 86, or 91 if you exclude the impact of acquisition charges from cost of revenue in this calculation.

庫存天數為 86 天，如果在此計算中從收入成本中排除購置費用的影響，則為 91 天。

The 91 days is comparable to the 92 days that we discussed in the third quarter.

91 天與我們在第三季度討論的 92 天相當。

Orders of $2.86 billion in the quarter were down 7% sequentially.

本季度訂單額為 28.6 億美元，環比下降 7%。

TI's booked-to-bill ratio was 0.84 in the quarter.

本季度 TI 的預訂出貨比為 0.84。

Turning to our outlook, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.02 billion to $3.28 billion in the first quarter, or down 12% to down 4% sequentially.

談到我們的前景，我們預計 TI 第一季度收入在 30.2 億美元至 32.8 億美元之間，環比下降 12% 至 4%。

Keep in mind that we expect baseband revenue to decline from $279 million in the fourth quarter to about $75 million in the first quarter.

請記住，我們預計基帶收入將從第四季度的 2.79 億美元下降到第一季度的約 7500 萬美元。

This means that the middle of our guidance range we expect the remainder of our revenue to decline about 2%, which is a little better than the seasonal average.

這意味著我們預計剩餘收入將下降約 2%，這比季節性平均水平略好一些。

As Ron said earlier, we expect baseband revenue to remain in a $50 million to $100 million range per quarter for the remainder of 2012.

正如 Ron 之前所說，我們預計 2012 年剩餘時間基帶收入將保持在每季度 5000 萬至 1 億美元的範圍內。

We expect earnings per share to be in the range of $0.16 to $0.24.

我們預計每股收益將在 0.16 美元至 0.24 美元之間。

We expect EPS will be negatively impacted by about $0.09 associated with total acquisition-related charges, including about $150 million of acquisition charges, and additionally, about $20 million of charges included in cost of revenue.

我們預計每股收益將受到與收購相關費用總額約 0.09 美元的負面影響，其中包括約 1.5 億美元的收購費用，此外，約 2000 萬美元的費用包含在收入成本中。

Also, restructuring charges associated with the planned factory closures that I previously discussed will be about a $0.01 impact on EPS.

此外，與我之前討論的計劃關閉工廠相關的重組費用將對每股收益產生約 0.01 美元的影響。

For 2012, our estimate for R&D is $2 billion, for capital expenditures is $700 million, and for depreciation is $1 billion.

2012 年，我們預計研發費用為 20 億美元，資本支出為 7 億美元，折舊費用為 10 億美元。

Our estimate for our annual effective tax rate in 2012 is 28%, 4 percentage points higher than in 2011, reflecting our expectation of higher profits in 2012, and the expiration of the R&D tax credit at the end of 2011.

我們對 2012 年年度有效稅率的估計為 28%，比 2011 年高 4 個百分點，反映出我們對 2012 年更高利潤的預期以及研發稅收抵免將於 2011 年底到期。

Our estimates for total acquisition-related charges for the remainder of 2012 are as follows.

我們對 2012 年剩餘時間的總收購相關費用的估計如下。

After about $170 million in the first quarter, we expect the charges in the second quarter to drop to about $110 million, and then continue to decline by about $10 million per quarter until we reach $80 million, which is the ongoing amortization of intangibles amount than will continue for eight to ten years.

在第一季度約 1.7 億美元之後，我們預計第二季度的費用將下降到約 1.1 億美元，然後每季度繼續下降約 1000 萬美元，直到我們達到 8000 萬美元，這是無形資產的持續攤銷金額將持續八到十年。

We will continue to update you on our expectations as we move forward, and we will make these charges visible for you as we report.

隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續向您更新我們的期望，並且我們將在報告時讓您看到這些費用。

To help you understand our transition from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, let me provide you some visibility this quarter beyond our traditional guidance.

為了幫助您了解我們從第四季度到第一季度的過渡，讓我為您提供本季度超出我們傳統指導的一些可見性。

First, at the middle of our guidance range, revenue will decline about $270 million in the fourth quarter, or 8%.

首先，在我們的指導範圍的中間，第四季度收入將下降約 2.7 億美元，即 8%。

The decline is mostly due to the decline of baseband revenue, although the completion of our expansion contract is also a contributor.

下降主要是由於基帶收入的下降，儘管我們擴展合同的完成也是一個貢獻者。

On a GAAP basis, gross profit should fall about $70 million to $1.48 billion.

根據公認會計原則，毛利潤應下降約 7000 萬美元至 14.8 億美元。

This includes the acquisition-related charge of $20 million that will be included in cost of revenue.

這包括將計入收入成本的 2000 萬美元的收購相關費用。

This charge is about $80 million lower than what it was in the fourth quarter.

這筆費用比第四季度減少了約 8000 萬美元。

Also, if you are comparing with the fourth quarter, we do not expect to repeat the $44 million charge for excess baseband inventory in the first quarter.

此外，如果您與第四季度進行比較，我們預計不會在第一季度重複 4400 萬美元的基帶庫存過剩費用。

Cost of revenue will reflect some seasonally higher expenses, as employees take less vacation and holiday time in the first quarter, and as annual pay and benefits increases and take hold.

收入成本將反映出一些季節性較高的支出，因為員工在第一季度休假和休假時間減少，並且隨著年度薪酬和福利的增加並佔據主導地位。

Also, the first quarter will include some additional costs as we move from attrition to hiring manufacturing employees in anticipation of stronger demand ahead.

此外，第一季度將包括一些額外成本，因為我們預計未來需求會更加強勁，因此我們將從裁員轉向僱傭製造員工。

We expect operating expenses of about $975 million in the first quarter, or about $50 million to $60 million higher than the fourth-quarter level.

我們預計第一季度的運營費用約為 9.75 億美元，比第四季度高出約 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元。

Again, this will reflect seasonally higher expenses due to less vacation and holiday time in the first quarter, as well as annual pay and benefit increases.

同樣，這將反映由於第一季度休假和假期時間減少以及年度薪酬和福利增加而導致的季節性支出增加。

Restructuring costs will decline to about $15 million in the first quarter.

第一季度的重組成本將下降至約 1500 萬美元。

This will be about $100 million less than the fourth-quarter level.

這將比第四季度的水平減少約 1 億美元。

The remaining acquisition charges that are not included in cost of revenue will be about $150 million, about the same as the fourth quarter.

未包括在收入成本中的剩餘收購費用約為 1.5 億美元，與第四季度大致相同。

Other income and interest expense will be about the same in the first quarter as the fourth quarter.

第一季度的其他收入和利息支出將與第四季度大致相同。

And finally, as I previously described, our estimated annual effective tax rate for 2012 is 28%, and that is the rate that you should model for the first quarter as well.

最後，正如我之前所述，我們估計 2012 年的年度有效稅率為 28%，這也是您應該為第一季度建模的稅率。

Therefore, net income in the first quarter should be about $235 million, or about $0.20 per share.

因此，第一季度的淨收入應該在2.35億美元左右，即每股0.20美元左右。

In summary, the market continues to show promising signs that the bottom has formed and that demand could begin to improve soon.

總而言之，市場繼續顯示出底部已經形成且需求可能很快開始改善的良好跡象。

When it does, we intend to be well-positioned with capacity and inventory.

當它發生時，我們打算在產能和庫存方面處於有利地位。

With that, let me turn it back to Ron.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給羅恩。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝，凱文。

Operator, you can now open up the lines up for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題隊列了。

In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question.

為了讓盡可能多的人有機會提問，請將自己限制在一個問題上。

After our response, we will provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

在我們做出回應後，我們將為您提供額外跟進的機會。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Glen Yeung, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Glen Yeung。

Thanks, guys, for letting me ask a question The first one is, what's your sense of the slope of the recovery that we're likely to see here?

謝謝，伙計們，讓我問一個問題 第一個是，你對我們可能在這裡看到的複蘇斜率有何看法？

In asking that question, I'm kind of interested to know, do you think your distributors and OEM partners are going to rebuild inventory?

在問這個問題時，我有點想知道，您認為您的分銷商和 OEM 合作夥伴會重建庫存嗎？

Could you also just clarify when you said inventories were low, was that on a dollars or days basis?

您是否也可以澄清一下您所說的庫存低是按美元還是按天計算的？

Glen I'll offer some comments and I'm sure Ron can add some additional color.

Glen 我會提供一些意見，我相信 Ron 可以添加一些額外的顏色。

Right now, as I mentioned or Ron mentioned, we have drained about $850 million of backlog over the last few quarters, so our visibility in the first quarter is quite low.

現在，正如我提到或羅恩提到的那樣，我們在過去幾個季度已經耗盡了大約 8.5 億美元的積壓訂單，因此我們在第一季度的能見度很低。

But looking at just the classic signs of what we've seen in many cycles in the past, we do believe we are at or near the bottom of this cycle.

但僅看看我們在過去許多周期中看到的經典跡象，我們確實相信我們正處於或接近這個週期的底部。

Our distributor inventories are at record lows, or about 6.5 weeks.

我們的分銷商庫存處於歷史最低水平，即約 6.5 週。

We would call that very lean.

我們稱之為非常精益。

It certainly looks like our customer inventories are very lean also, especially as evidenced by the unexpected up-tick in demand that we had in the second half of December.

當然，我們的客戶庫存看起來也非常少，尤其是我們在 12 月下半月的需求意外上升就證明了這一點。

From the standpoint of how quickly it slopes back up, that's probably a little bit hard to quantify with any kind of precision given the visibility due to our backlog, but I would point out that from an inventory standpoint, our days of inventory are well-staged.

從它以多快的速度回升的角度來看，考慮到我們積壓的可見性，這可能有點難以用任何精確度來量化，但我要指出的是，從庫存的角度來看，我們的庫存天數很好-上演。

If you compare that to the last time we saw a cycle that was probably somewhat similar was back in first half of 2009.

如果你將它與我們上次看到的可能有點相似的周期進行比較，那是在 2009 年上半年。

At that point in time, we came out of first quarter 2009 into second quarter 2009 with a days of inventory that was down in the mid-70s.

那時，我們從 2009 年第一季度進入 2009 年第二季度，庫存天數下降到 70 年代中期。

This time we're looking at about 91 days.

這次我們要查看大約 91 天。

In addition, as I mentioned we're beginning to increase our manufacturing staff in anticipation of increased demand.

此外，正如我所提到的，我們正開始增加我們的製造人員，以應對需求增加的預期。

So, we will be well-positioned for when the demand does come back.

因此，我們將在需求真正恢復時做好準備。

Just how steep that slope is a little bit tough to call.

很難判斷這個斜坡有多陡。

Ron, you might have some color on that.

羅恩，你可能對此有所了解。

The only thing else I was going to add, Glen, is you're right.

格倫，我唯一要補充的是你是對的。

Our view is that distribution inventory is on the low side, and probably does need some replenishment.

我們認為分銷庫存偏低，可能確實需要一些補貨。

They're not at that point yet where they've begun to replenish, but history would suggest that, in fact, that will occur.

他們還沒有達到開始補充的那個點，但歷史表明，事實上，這將會發生。

Just in general regarding the slope, we don't really know, but if you just look at history, our industry clearly doesn't have a history of smooth low-slope transitions in terms of how it recovers.

就一般而言，關於斜率，我們真的不知道，但如果你只看歷史，就恢復方式而言，我們的行業顯然沒有平穩低斜率過渡的歷史。

So, we will be prepared accordingly.

所以，我們會做好相應的準備。

Do you have a follow-on, Glen?

你有後續嗎，格倫？

I do.

我願意。

It's just regarding these fab closures.

這只是關於這些晶圓廠的關閉。

One part of this is, should I assume that -- how much of the $100 million savings is actually in cost of goods, and then sort of an as adjunct to that, are there any other things like this that you still see to do to reduce cost?

其中一部分是，我是否應該假設 - 節省的 1 億美元中有多少實際上是在商品成本上，然後作為它的附屬物，是否還有其他類似的事情你仍然需要做降低成本？

Glen, all of the $100 million savings that we were talking about will be in the cost of revenue line, and we'll begin to realize that in full order by the time we get to the end of the closure period, which will be over the next 18 months.

格倫，我們談論的所有 1 億美元的節省都將在收入成本線中，我們將開始意識到在我們到達關閉期結束時完全有序，這將結束接下來的 18 個月。

As far as the other actions, there are no other actions that we would have to talk about right now.

至於其他行動，我們現在不需要談論其他行動。

Okay Glen, thank you for your questions.

好的，格倫，謝謝你的提問。

We'll move to the next caller.

我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch

Vivek Arya，美國銀行/美林

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I'm curious, excluding baseband, can you give some color on what end markets are doing better or worse than what you expected at the time of your last update.

我很好奇，不包括基帶，您能否說明哪些終端市場的表現比您上次更新時的預期更好或更差。

Where does the rebound look sustainable, and where do you think it's just a temporary sort of inventory-filling bounce right now?

反彈在哪些方面看起來是可持續的，您認為它在哪些方面只是暫時的庫存填充反彈？

Yes, Vivek, that's a tough call to -- we see the demand, but it's very difficult for us to be able to kind of see through all the customers' channels to understand does it reflect a movement on in-demand, or is it just that their inventory correction is beginning to slow.

是的，Vivek，這是一個艱難的呼籲——我們看到了需求，但我們很難通過所有客戶的渠道來了解它是否反映了需求的變化，或者是只是他們的庫存調整開始放緩。

As you heard us say even back in third quarter, our customers, we believed, were reducing inventory.

正如您在第三季度聽到我們所說的那樣，我們相信我們的客戶正在減少庫存。

So even if demand were to remain stable, if the customers just slowed their inventory reduction, that would translate to growth on our end.

因此，即使需求保持穩定，如果客戶只是放慢減少庫存的速度，那也會轉化為我們的增長。

Again, what we saw late December was very broad-based growth, and again beyond, in terms of is that in-demand, or just slowing of inventory correction, we don't know.

同樣，我們在 12 月下旬看到的增長基礎非常廣泛，而且超出需求，或者只是庫存調整放緩，我們不知道。

By end market, to be honest, Vivek, we don't have at the mid-quarter update a detailed cut, but I would say, based upon the breadth that we saw upside in our product lines, our view is that it really went across almost all end markets, as well as almost all regions as well.

對於終端市場，老實說，Vivek，我們在季度中期更新中沒有詳細的削減，但我想說，根據我們在產品線中看到的上行空間的廣度，我們的觀點是它真的去了幾乎遍及所有終端市場，以及幾乎所有地區。

So, I don't have a lot of precision, but again, the feeling is that it was very broad-based across product lines, regions, as well as in markets.

所以，我沒有太多的精確度，但同樣，感覺它在產品線、地區和市場上的基礎非常廣泛。

Do you have a follow-on to that?

你有後續嗎？

Yes, thanks Ron.

是的，謝謝羅恩。

If I look at -- what I would like to understand is just the trajectory of OpEx in 2012, but more importantly, I think you're guiding R&D up 5% in 2012, if I just compare it to an annualized Q4-type number.

如果我看看——我想了解的只是 2012 年運營支出的軌跡，但更重要的是，如果我只是將其與年化 Q4 類型的數字進行比較，我認為你正在引導 2012 年的研發增長 5% .

I'm trying to align that with the cost synergy that you were expecting with the NSM integration before.

我試圖將其與您之前期望的 NSM 集成的成本協同效應保持一致。

Is the spending higher than what you had expected before, or were those cost synergies more in SG&A rather than R&D?

支出是否高於您之前的預期，或者這些成本協同效應更多地用於 SG&A 而不是研發？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vivek, R&D we kind of need to keep in mind that we've got a full quarter of -- one quarter of National in our numbers right now.

Vivek，R&D 我們需要記住，我們現在有四分之一的國民人數。

So to put it another way, in 2012 of course we'll have four quarters of National in our numbers, in 2011 we only had one quarter.

所以換句話說，在 2012 年，我們當然會有四分之一的國家銀行，而在 2011 年，我們只有四分之一。

That may be part of what you're seeing on that front.

這可能是你在這方面看到的一部分。

As far as where our OpEx is going, I think the best thing to do is probably just use the fourth-quarter guidance that we've given, and then go ahead and model from there, using the kind of seasonal history that you can pretty clearly see when you take a look at our reported financial results.

至於我們的 OpEx 的發展方向，我認為最好的辦法可能就是使用我們給出的第四季度指導，然後從那裡開始建模，使用你可以漂亮的季節性歷史當您查看我們報告的財務業績時，您會清楚地看到。

As we talked about, we expect OpEx to be up fourth quarter to first quarter in the 50 million to $60 million range.

正如我們所說，我們預計 OpEx 將在第四季度至第一季度上升至 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的範圍內。

If you start there and then model that, that will get you to a pretty good estimate I think of where 2012 will land

如果你從那裡開始然後建模，那會讓你得到一個很好的估計，我認為 2012 年會在哪裡著陸

Your observation or your question was in the right direction on the national synergies.

你的觀察或你的問題在國家協同作用方面是正確的。

We've said all along that the $100 million that we achieve in synergy from National will almost wholly be from G&A, and it was our intent to use to maintain the entire R&D.

我們一直說，我們從 National 獲得的 1 億美元協同效應幾乎全部來自 G&A，我們打算用它來維持整個研發。

That was part of the value that we purchased, as well as the sales force, and achieved synergies on the G&A side.

這是我們購買的價值的一部分，以及銷售人員，並在 G&A 方面實現了協同效應。

Okay, Vivek, thank you for your questions.

好的，Vivek，謝謝你的問題。

Let's move to the next caller.

讓我們轉到下一個來電者。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰皮策，瑞士信貸。

Yes, guys, thanks for letting me ask the question.

是的，伙計們，謝謝你讓我問這個問題。

Ron, I guess my first question is, given that the month of December came in a little bit better than expected from the mid-quarter update, are you now sort of at a run rate where you would expect bookings to grow sequentially in the March quarter and generate a booked-to-bill of greater than 1?

羅恩，我想我的第一個問題是，考慮到 12 月份的情況比季度中期更新的預期好一點，您現在的運行率是否符合您預計 3 月份的預訂量會連續增長季度並生成大於 1 的預訂到賬單？

John, let me not extrapolate that far out, but what I will say is the strength that we saw during the latter part of December has carried forward thus far into the quarter.

約翰，讓我不要推斷那麼遠，但我要說的是我們在 12 月下旬看到的力量已經延續到本季度。

Now what we don't know at this point is what'll happen through the Asian holiday period -- will things slow back down, and part of what we're seeing is pull-ahead of that demand, or how that'll translate.

現在我們現在不知道的是整個亞洲假期期間會發生什麼——事情會不會放緩，我們看到的部分情況是需求提前，或者這將如何轉化.

But again, the strength we saw late December has carried forward thus far in the quarter on the bookings side.

但同樣，我們在 12 月底看到的強勁勢頭在本季度的預訂方面得到了延續。

Do you have a follow-on, John,.

你有後續嗎，約翰。

Yes, my second question's on utilization.

是的，我的第二個問題是關於利用率。

You guys mentioned about 50% utilization.

你們提到了大約 50% 的利用率。

One, does that include kind of the R fab capacity that was idle going into this?

第一，這是否包括那種閒置的 R 晶圓廠產能？

I guess secondly, can you help me understand at what revenue level you start to approach that target margin you guys have historically talked about in the past of 55%.

我想其次，你能幫我了解一下你們在什麼收入水平上開始接近你們過去一直談論的 55% 的目標利潤率嗎？

I realize there's a lot of mix that goes into that as well, but I'm just trying to get a sense of how we should think about the model now with National included and the baseband business unwinding?

我知道其中也有很多混合因素，但我只是想了解一下我們現在應該如何考慮包括 National 和基帶業務在內的模型？

John on the utilization, it does include all of the capacity that we have been discussing over the last couple of years, including the new factories that we've brought on and the equipment that we've brought along inside those factories.

約翰關於利用率，它確實包括我們在過去幾年中一直在討論的所有產能，包括我們帶來的新工廠以及我們在這些工廠內帶來的設備。

In fact, we are in the low 50% utilization range -- the low 50s.

事實上，我們處於 50% 的低利用率範圍 - 低 50s。

To the question of what revenue level gets us to the kind of model GPM -- I'm going to defer that until we can actually produce and actual to represent that to you.

關於什麼收入水平讓我們達到那種模型 GPM 的問題——我將推遲這個問題，直到我們能夠實際生產並實際向你展示它。

Clearly it's higher than where we're at right now.

顯然它比我們現在所處的位置要高。

If you just go back and take a look in history, you can see there were a couple of times where we approached the 55% kind of gross margin.

如果你回頭看看歷史，你會發現有幾次我們的毛利率接近 55%。

You can go back into late 2010 and see those kind of numbers that were showing up.

你可以回到 2010 年底，看看那些出現的數字。

That might be one point of reference for you to just take a look at to anticipate where we'd need to be as we get back to those kind of gross margins.

這可能是一個參考點，你只需看一下，就可以預測我們回到那種毛利率時需要達到的水平。

John, I can give also give you a little more insight into where we actually are with our fab.

約翰，我還可以讓你更深入地了解我們工廠的實際情況。

Our fab utilization is about 25% currently, and that includes all the equipment that we've purchased, even though some of it may still be shrink-wrapped and in storage.

我們工廠的利用率目前約為 25%，這包括我們購買的所有設備，儘管其中一些可能仍處於收縮包裝狀態並處於存儲狀態。

So all the equipment that we've purchased for our fab, in that consideration we have 25% utilization, and again the equipped capacity that we're talking about today from a revenue standpoint is about $2 billion.

因此，我們為工廠購買的所有設備，考慮到我們有 25% 的利用率，從收入的角度來看，我們今天談論的裝備產能約為 20 億美元。

That means we have roughly $500 million of annual revenue in the form of starts that we have loaded at our fab currently.

這意味著我們的年收入大約為 5 億美元，以我們目前在工廠裝載的開工形式計算。

Okay, John, thanks for your questions, and we'll move to the next caller.

好的，約翰，謝謝你的問題，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

CJ Muse, Barclays.

CJ Muse，巴克萊銀行。

Yes, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你提出我的問題。

First question, curious on how we should think about seasonality for you guys, with no baseband and now adding Nat Semi.

第一個問題，很好奇我們應該如何考慮你們的季節性，沒有基帶，現在添加了 Nat Semi。

How should we think about typical seasonality into Q2?

我們應該如何考慮第二季度的典型季節性？

Oh boy, CJ it's going to be easier to measure seasonality when it's history than trying to project in advance.

哦，天哪，CJ，當它成為歷史時，衡量季節性會比嘗試提前預測更容易。

But just a couple of considerations.

但只是一些考慮因素。

I mean as baseband becomes smaller, baseband is probably a product line that was more depressed in first quarter.

我的意思是隨著基帶越來越小，基帶可能是第一季度比較低迷的一條產品線。

Therefore, that would tend to maybe mute out some of the normal seasonal lift that we would have going into second quarter.

因此，這可能會抵消我們進入第二季度的一些正常季節性增長。

I don't really -- we haven't done kind of a detailed analysis of National's seasonality and what impact that would have, but probably the bigger piece would be what we just talked about, which is less baseband, therefore less -- I'll just -- depressed seasonality or decline in the first quarter, and that impact, then, on the second quarter transition as well.

我真的沒有——我們還沒有對國家隊的季節性以及它會產生什麼影響進行詳細分析，但可能更大的部分就是我們剛才談到的，基帶較少，因此較少——我只是——第一季度季節性低迷或下降，這也會影響第二季度的過渡。

Keep in mind, a big part of our second-quarter seasonality is a significant growth in calculators in that quarter, which typically will add about three points of growth to the Company level, on top of what semiconductors do.

請記住，我們第二季度季節性的很大一部分是該季度計算器的顯著增長，這通常會在半導體業務的基礎上為公司層面增加大約三個點的增長。

Semiconductors, historically, including baseband, historically would have been up about 5%.

從歷史上看，包括基帶在內的半導體會上漲 5% 左右。

So again historical all-in seasonality for TI, just on a five-year average would be 8% at the Company level, with about three of those points coming from consolidators.

因此，對於 TI 來說，歷史上的所有季節性再次出現，在公司層面，五年平均水平為 8%，其中大約三個點來自整合商。

Do you have a follow-on, CJ?

你有後續嗎，CJ？

Yes, very helpful.

是的，很有幫助。

As a follow-up, in terms of gross margins, you told us about the $103 million, but then you didn't exclude the $44 million inventory charge from pro forma.

作為後續行動，就毛利率而言，你告訴我們 1.03 億美元，但你沒有將 4400 萬美元的庫存費用排除在備考之外。

So curious, was there anything else in there that's one-time related, and anything that we should be thinking about one time in the first half of 2012, as well?

很好奇，其中是否還有其他與一次性相關的內容，以及我們應該在 2012 年上半年考慮一次的任何內容？

No, the large things CJ were what we talked about there.

不，CJ 是我們在那裡談論的大事。

That's the $103 million of principle fair-market value write-up, the $153 million of acquisition-related charges that were put on the acquisition line, $112 million of restructuring costs that's on the restructuring line, and the $44 million we have not excluded.

這是 1.03 億美元的原則公平市值增記，1.53 億美元的收購相關費用，1.12 億美元的重組費用，以及我們沒有排除的 4400 萬美元。

In fact, those are the sort of things that we consider as part of our operations, and we need to manage to it.

事實上，這些是我們認為是我們運營的一部分的事情，我們需要設法做到這一點。

Okay, CJ, thank you for your questions and we'll move to the next caller.

好的，CJ，謝謝你的問題，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Ambrish Srivastava, BMO Capital Markets

Ambrish Srivastava，BMO 資本市場

Thank you, excuse me.

謝謝你，對不起。

Ron and Kevin, I just wanted to understand what is the right way to think about National, now that you have had a couple of quarters beyond all of the time that you spent before that.

Ron 和 Kevin，我只是想了解什麼是思考國家黨的正確方式，現在你們已經度過了幾個季度，超出了之前的所有時間。

If you think X percent growth for analog, what should be just order of magnitude?

如果您認為模擬的 X% 增長，應該是多少數量級？

How much should SVA under-perform, or not at all, and all the Sleeping Beauties that you've talked about.

SVA 應該在多大程度上表現不佳，或者根本不表現，以及您談到的所有睡美人。

Are they starting to wake up?

他們開始覺醒了嗎？

Help us understand the magnitude?

幫助我們了解震級？

Ambrish, I think we've discussed in the past where our anticipation in the acquisition of National was that it had been under-growing in the market for some time now.

Ambrish，我認為我們過去曾討論過我們對收購 National 的預期是它在市場上的增長已經有一段時間了。

As we looked at it, we expected it would probably continue to under-grow the market for the first year.

正如我們所看到的那樣，我們預計它可能會在第一年繼續低於市場增長。

By the second year, probably approaching the market-growth rate, and then by the third year exceeding market growth, similar to the expectations we have with our other analog businesses.

到第二年，可能接近市場增長率，然後到第三年超過市場增長率，類似於我們對其他模擬業務的預期。

At this point in time, of course just the design win cycle, and design end cycle, and then how long it takes for those design-ins to actually turn into production revenue, I don't think we would suggest that you change your expectation from what I just described.

在這個時間點，當然只有設計獲勝週期和設計結束週期，以及這些設計投入實際轉化為生產收入需要多長時間，我認為我們不會建議您改變您的預期從我剛才的描述。

That's not to say that we're not being a lot more aggressive internally to try to do off and do better than that, but I'd say it's too early for us right now to go off and change that expectation.

這並不是說我們沒有在內部更加積極地嘗試做並做得更好，但我想說我們現在離開並改變這種期望還為時過早。

Ambrish, I would just kind of underscore customer response.

Ambrish，我只想強調客戶的反應。

We thought there were some considerations that customers would probably be pleased with our acquisition of National, but as we've been out visiting customers and talking to them, they're enthusiasm over this acquisition has exceeded our expectations.

我們認為有一些考慮因素表明客戶可能會對我們收購 National 感到滿意，但由於我們一直在拜訪客戶並與他們交談，他們對此次收購的熱情超出了我們的預期。

Again, our aspirations are high, we're going to turn it into a lot of revenue growth, and we'll let you know probably as it happens, more so than trying to project it out too far in advance.

同樣，我們的願望很高，我們將把它轉化為大量的收入增長，我們可能會在它發生時讓你知道，而不是試圖提前太早預測它。

Do you have a follow-on, Ambrish?

你有後續嗎，Ambrish？

Yes I did, thanks Ron.

是的，我做到了，謝謝羅恩。

In the, just to the follow-up to Vivek's question earlier on.

在，只是對 Vivek 之前問題的跟進。

In the socket market, this is one you had called out as being very weak, particularly due to the North America CapEx.

在插座市場中，這是一個你認為非常薄弱的市場，特別是由於北美資本支出。

Is the bounce-back here something you're seeing just from inventory replenishment, or do you think in this market you're seeing some signs of sustainability?

這裡的反彈是你從庫存補充中看到的，還是你認為在這個市場上你看到了一些可持續性的跡象？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Boy, Ambrish, again, I don't know that we can say.

男孩，Ambrish，我不知道我們可以說。

Clearly, that market has not recovered.

顯然，該市場尚未恢復。

It was down 40% for the quarter, so we didn't see recovery in the fourth quarter.

本季度下降了 40%，因此我們沒有看到第四季度出現復甦。

I think you heard us say even at the mid-quarter update, part of what we had seen was that certain service providers in the North American market had slowed or put a temporary hold on some of their capital spending.

我想你聽到我們說，即使在季度中期更新時，我們所看到的部分情況是北美市場的某些服務提供商已經放緩或暫時擱置了他們的一些資本支出。

That's not to say there may not be some inventory correction taking place, as well, but it was also service providers putting a crimp on capital spending.

這並不是說可能不會發生一些庫存調整，而是服務提供商也在限制資本支出。

Again, we saw late in the quarter demand.

同樣，我們在本季度末看到了需求。

It's probably too early for us to say, was that the service provider's turning on again, or was it just the OEM customers that we serviced directly, coming out of their inventory correction.

我們現在說是服務提供商再次開啟，還是只是我們直接服務的 OEM 客戶，從他們的庫存調整中走出來可能還為時過早。

We don't know that.

我們不知道。

I think probably our expectation clearly is as we get into kind of the mid part of the year, the North American market overall sees recovery.

我想我們的預期很可能是，當我們進入年中時，北美市場總體上會出現復甦。

Again, I don't know how to translate what we saw in the few weeks late in December into an overall statement.

同樣，我不知道如何將我們在 12 月底的幾週內看到的內容轉化為一份總體聲明。

Okay, Ambrish, thank you for your questions, and let's move to the next caller, operator.

好的，Ambrish，謝謝你的問題，讓我們轉到下一個來電者，接線員。

Christopher Danely, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的克里斯托弗·丹尼利。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

One quick question on the guidance.

關於指南的一個快速問題。

It sounds like things are bottoming here and clearly getting a lot better.

聽起來事情已經觸底，而且明顯好轉了很多。

But the booked-to-bill was pretty low at 0.84.

但預訂出貨率非常低，為 0.84。

I'm just wondering why guide for better-than-seasonal with such a low booked-to-bill?

我只是想知道為什麼在預訂到賬單這麼低的情況下指南比季節性更好？

Is it just because the last six week has been so strong, or you kind got higher returns?

僅僅是因為過去六週表現如此強勁，還是你獲得了更高的回報？

Can you just talk about that a little bit?

你能稍微談談嗎？

Yes Chris, I'll add some comments and Ron can add, as well.

好的，Chris，我會添加一些評論，Ron 也可以添加。

Again, we're kind of looking back to a classic signals that we have seen in inventory cycles in the past, and that is a couple quarters of negative booked-to-bills and declining orders, which tend to then bottom out and be followed by some fairly nice revenue growth on a sequential basis.

再一次，我們回顧了過去在庫存週期中看到的一個經典信號，那就是幾個季度的負預訂出貨量和下降的訂單，這些信號往往會觸底反彈並受到關注通過一些相當不錯的連續收入增長。

From that standpoint, we've seen a couple quarters of negative booked-to-bill, a couple quarters of declining orders.

從這個角度來看，我們已經看到幾個季度的負預訂到賬單，幾個季度的訂單下降。

That's not to say that the fourth quarter is necessarily the bottom, or the first quarter is the bottom, but we believe we're darn close to it, whichever direction it's in.

這並不是說第四季度一定是底部，或者第一季度是底部，但我們相信我們非常接近它，無論它在哪個方向。

From that standpoint, and as evidenced by the demand that we saw in December and going into January, that's led us to the guidance that we've offered.

從這個角度來看，正如我們在 12 月和進入 1 月看到的需求所證明的那樣，這使我們得出了我們提供的指導。

Chris, I think also if you go back and look at historical cycles, at least with respect to TI's numbers, booked-to-bill really was not a leading indicator.

克里斯，我還認為，如果您回顧歷史週期，至少就 TI 的數據而言，預訂出貨量確實不是領先指標。

We came out of down-turns into very robust growth.

我們走出了低迷期，實現了非常強勁的增長。

Just go look at second quarter 2009, as an example, where we came into that quarter with a pretty weak booked-to-bill, and obviously had some pretty robust growth.

以 2009 年第二季度為例，進入該季度時，我們的預訂出貨量非常疲軟，但顯然增長強勁。

Again, we don't lean too heavily on booked-to-bill as -- it's a consideration, but it's not the only one.

同樣，我們不會過分依賴預訂到賬單——這是一個考慮因素，但不是唯一的考慮因素。

The other thing I would just ask you to keep in mind, that we have 40% of our revenue, and our largest customers, our highest-volume programs on consignment, where booked-to-bill, almost by definition in a consignment program, runs at 1.0.

另一件事我想請你記住，我們有 40% 的收入，我們最大的客戶，我們最大的寄售計劃，在寄售計劃中幾乎按照定義，預訂到賬單，以 1.0 運行。

Again, there we rely more on those customers' forecasted billed rates, as apposed to what you would see for example, externally, in the order trends or in the booked-to-bill.

同樣，我們更多地依賴於這些客戶的預測計費率，而不是您在外部、訂單趨勢或預訂到賬單中看到的情況。

Did you have a follow-on, Chris?

你有後續嗎，克里斯？

Yes, thanks, a bit of a longer-term question.

是的，謝謝，有點長期的問題。

In the past, you guys have talked about the target model -- I think it was 55% gross margin and 30% Op margin.

過去，你們談到了目標模型——我認為是 55% 的毛利率和 30% 的運營利潤率。

I think you guys pretty much hit that, and maybe even exceeded it a little bit towards the end of 2010.

我認為你們幾乎達到了這個目標，甚至可能在 2010 年底略微超過了它。

Now that the baseband is down to about 2% of revs and now that you're folding in the higher margin National business, can we assume that your peak gross margins and peak operating margins, and even maybe your OpEx should be higher now?

既然基帶已降至約 2% 的轉速，並且現在您正在放棄利潤率較高的 National 業務，我們是否可以假設您的峰值毛利率和峰值營業利潤率，甚至您的 OpEx 現在應該更高？

Chris, when we talked about that model, we talked as we average our way through a cycle, that's what investors should expect our business to be able to deliver to them.

克里斯，當我們談到這個模型時，我們談到了我們在一個週期中的平均方式，這就是投資者應該期望我們的業務能夠提供給他們的東西。

In fact, as you pointed out we exceeded that during certain points of the recent past, and right now we're operating, or about to operate, below that given what our outlook was given for first quarter.

事實上，正如您所指出的，我們在最近的某些時間點超過了這一點，而現在我們正在或即將運營，低於我們對第一季度的展望。

But all that being said, certainly we've got a portfolio that continues to average itself up with the fact that the lower margin businesses are becoming a smaller and smaller percent.

但話雖如此，我們肯定有一個投資組合，隨著利潤率較低的企業所佔比例越來越小這一事實，我們的投資組合會繼續保持平均。

I think it's probably too early for us to predict whether or not our peaks on the next cycle will exceed the peaks on the last cycle, but certainly we have put together a manufacturing cost model, and we're building product portfolio model that should allow us to continue to be very reliable when it comes to maintaining that model.

我認為現在預測下一個週期的峰值是否會超過上一個週期的峰值可能還為時過早，但我們肯定已經建立了一個製造成本模型，並且我們正在構建的產品組合模型應該允許在維護該模型時，我們將繼續非常可靠。

I would also remind you that we continue to be very focused on growth, and that is really our near-term objective, as opposed to trying to predict when, and by how much we would break out of the model we talked about.

我還要提醒您，我們將繼續非常關注增長，這確實是我們的近期目標，而不是試圖預測我們何時以及在多大程度上突破我們所討論的模型。

I think if you just look at a lot of -- just even pure companies.

我想如果你只看很多 - 甚至只是純粹的公司。

Obviously, analog, embedded processing, the part of the wireless market that we're now focused up on, are all what I would call very target-rich in terms of profitability, and I think from the investors' side, we're all going to be much better served just by TI driving a lot of growth in those areas, as opposed to kind of getting micro-focused on margins.

顯然，模擬、嵌入式處理，我們現在關注的無線市場部分，在盈利能力方面我稱之為目標非常豐富，我認為從投資者的角度來看，我們都是僅通過 TI 在這些領域推動大量增長，而不是微觀地關注利潤率，將會得到更好的服務。

Margins will be good if we grow the way we have, with the way we aspire to grow.

如果我們以我們擁有的方式和我們渴望的方式發展，利潤率將會很好。

Okay Chris, thanks for your questions, and let's move to the next caller.

好的，克里斯，謝謝你的問題，讓我們轉到下一位來電者。

Uche Orji, UBS.

Uche Orji，瑞銀。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ron, can I just quickly ask you about wireless, especially about connectivity, as well as OMAP?

Ron，我能不能快速地問你關於無線的問題，尤其是關於連接性的問題，以及 OMAP？

Can you talk about how you view the sustainability of the growth we've seen in the OMAP business, which obviously is a reflection of some of the design wins you've had recently.

您能否談談您如何看待我們在 OMAP 業務中看到的增長的可持續性，這顯然反映了您最近獲得的一些設計勝利。

But any insight as to what your commitment and the engagement with your customers out there?

但是關於您的承諾和與客戶的互動有什麼見解嗎？

Also in connectivity, the weakness there, how much of that was due to any specific and customer weakness, or how much was (inaudible) loss?

同樣在連接方面，那裡的弱點，其中有多少是由於任何特定的和客戶的弱點，或者有多少（聽不清）損失？

Okay, let's hit the back part of your question because then I think it leads into the other one.

好吧，讓我們回答你問題的後面部分，因為我認為它會引出另一個問題。

Connectivity, the decline that we saw in -- let's just say the year overall for 2011 -- we believe reflects almost wholly the success, or in some cases lack thereof, by our customers in that marketplace.

連通性，我們看到的下降——我們只說 2011 年的整體情況——我們認為幾乎完全反映了我們的客戶在該市場上的成功，或者在某些情況下沒有成功。

The reality is our two largest connectivity customers probably under-performed the smart phone market in 2011, and we love our customers, but our connectivity revenue is going to reflect the success of our customers.

事實上，我們兩個最大的連接客戶在 2011 年的智能手機市場表現可能不佳，我們熱愛我們的客戶，但我們的連接收入將反映我們客戶的成功。

So that would be the consideration.

所以這將是考慮因素。

Our share in connectivity has done well, and I would say has been reasonably consistent.

我們在連通性方面的份額做得很好，我想說一直相當一致。

I think you take that same thing over to OMAP.

我認為您將同樣的事情交給了 OMAP。

OMAP, there's nothing that says a customer cannot change processors, even applications processors, even application processors where they might have a pretty significant software investment developed.

OMAP，沒有什麼說客戶不能更改處理器，甚至是應用程序處理器，甚至是他們可能已經開發了相當大的軟件投資的應用程序處理器。

Our goal is to make sure they have no reason to change.

我們的目標是確保他們沒有理由改變。

To the extent that we continue to develop industry-leading products, and I mean that from a performance standpoint, from a power consumption standpoint, and as long as we continue to treat that customer with the respect they deserve as a customer, we think that business is sustainable over the course time.

就我們繼續開發行業領先的產品而言，我的意思是從性能的角度，從功耗的角度，只要我們繼續以客戶應得的尊重對待客戶，我們認為業務在整個過程中是可持續的。

Whether it's applications processors or embedded processors in general, or our deep history in DSPs, that business over time has tended to be relatively sustainable, and those customer relationships have tended to be strategic and long-lasting.

無論是應用處理器還是一般的嵌入式處理器，或者我們在 DSP 領域的深厚歷史，隨著時間的推移，該業務往往是相對可持續的，而且這些客戶關係往往是戰略性的和持久的。

Again, if a supplier gives a customer a reason to change, that customer will change, but we've been fortunate on that front, and we intend to continue to operate accordingly.

同樣，如果供應商給客戶一個改變的理由，那個客戶就會改變，但我們在這方面很幸運，我們打算繼續相應地運營。

Again, connectivity and OMAP, the reason we're enthusiastic about it is it's a great growth opportunity from the standpoint of the outlook for smart phones, and we believe our position within the customers where we're engaged is a sustainable one.

同樣，連接性和 OMAP，我們對其充滿熱情的原因是，從智能手機的前景來看，這是一個巨大的增長機會，我們相信我們在我們參與的客戶中的地位是可持續的。

Do you have a follow-on, Uche?

你有後續嗎，Uche？

Sure, I do.

當然，我願意。

Separate question for Kevin.

凱文的單獨問題。

Kevin, how should we think about your priorities for use of cash going forward?

凱文，我們應該如何考慮您未來使用現金的優先順序？

Obviously the buy-back rates has come down sharply from where it was last year -- A, because the stock probably has gone up, and B, all the cash usage you've used in terms of National Semi.

顯然，回購率比去年大幅下降——A，因為股票可能已經上漲，B，你在 National Semi 方面使用的所有現金。

Between dividends and buy-back, how should we think about your use of cash for this year?

在分紅和回購之間，我們應該如何考慮您今年的現金使用？

Uche, you summarized it pretty good, there.

Uche，你總結得很好，那裡。

We have, in fact, stepped down the amount of dollars we've allocated toward the buy-back, and we indicated we would do that as a consequence of the acquisition of National Semi, so that we can begin to allocate certain cash balances for repaying the debt when it comes due.

事實上，我們已經減少了分配給回購的美元數額，我們表示我們會這樣做是因為收購了 National Semi，這樣我們就可以開始為回購分配一定的現金餘額在到期時償還債務。

Our use of cash remains unchanged from priority standpoint, though.

不過，從優先級的角度來看，我們對現金的使用保持不變。

That is, first and foremost, we're directing the cash into activities that we believe can result in growth.

也就是說，首先，我們將現金投入到我們認為可以帶來增長的活動中。

The most obvious areas where you see that is in R&D, in capital, as in CapEx, and then followed by acquisitions.

你看到的最明顯的領域是研發、資本，如資本支出，然後是收購。

Most of those acquisitions, once again, aside from National, are usually quite small acquisitions.

再一次，除了National，這些收購中的大多數通常都是非常小的收購。

To the extent that we have cash then beyond our needs after that, then we do allocate it, of course, to dividends.

如果我們擁有的現金超出了我們的需求，那麼我們當然會將其分配給股息。

You see us increase the dividend fairly significantly, here.

你看到我們在這里相當顯著地增加了股息。

Almost 30% in the fourth quarter versus the prior quarter, and we also allocate it to buy-backs.

第四季度與上一季度相比增長近 30%，我們還將其分配給回購。

So that would be the order of cash use, but first and foremost is focused on opportunities that we believe we can push the top line for growth.

因此，這將是現金使用的順序，但首要的是關注我們認為我們可以推動增長的機會。

Okay Uche, thank you for your questions, and we'll move to the next caller.

好的，Uche，謝謝你的問題，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Edward Snyder, Charter Equity Research.

Edward Snyder，Charter Equity Research。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Couple here.

情侶在這裡

OMAP did particularly well and has done well last several quarters, but how should we think about the oncoming year?

OMAP 做得特別好，並且在過去幾個季度都做得很好，但我們應該如何看待即將到來的一年？

I'm sure you track competitor's products -- the 8960 from Qualcomm has been getting lot of adherence, and this is their first big push into the integrated -- baseband modem, which I'm sure you're feeling a little pinch at it in RIM and I doubt at Nokia yet.

我敢肯定你會跟踪競爭對手的產品——高通公司的 8960 已經得到了很多人的支持，這是他們第一次大力推進集成——基帶調製解調器，我敢肯定你對它感到有點緊張在 RIM 和我懷疑在諾基亞呢。

Do we extrapolate out?

我們外推嗎？

I know you're not giving guidance here, but why shouldn't we worry about what has been one of your strongest performers in the wireless group, given the landscape in the baseband side of the business -- or the applications processor side of the business over the last quarter or so?

我知道你在這裡沒有提供指導，但考慮到業務的基帶方面或應用處理器方面的前景，我們為什麼不應該擔心你在無線部門中表現最出色的公司之一呢？上個季度左右的業務？

Ed, again, whether it's the particular competitor you mentioned, or the many other competitors that would like to encroach upon our success in applications processors, first of all we take that threat as a real threat, but at the same time we view the opportunity in terms of players where we don't have share, and opportunities even within the customers where we're engaged -- but we don't have all those programs.

Ed，再一次，無論是你提到的特定競爭對手，還是許多其他想要侵占我們在應用處理器領域的成功的競爭對手，首先我們將這種威脅視為真正的威脅，但同時我們也看到了機會就我們沒有份額的玩家而言，甚至在我們參與的客戶中也有機會——但我們沒有所有這些計劃。

There's a lot more that we're missing than we have.

我們缺少的比我們擁有的多得多。

So will a competitor pick up a TI historical opportunity here and there?

那麼競爭對手會在這里或那裡抓住 TI 的歷史機會嗎？

Probably.

大概。

But our view is, we're not sitting here satisfied with our current share.

但我們的觀點是，我們對目前的份額並不滿意。

We are aggressively moving forward to take our success in OMAP today, and extend that share.

我們正在積極向前邁進，以取得我們今天在 OMAP 中的成功，並擴大這一份額。

We recognize fully that we'll be facing a lot of good competitors in the process.

我們充分認識到，在此過程中我們將面臨許多優秀的競爭對手。

Do you feel hobbled without a -- and this is kind of an adjunct to the same question -- a lot of LTE's product is coming through design cycle now for this year.

如果沒有 - 這是同一個問題的附屬物 - 今年很多 LTE 產品正在通過設計週期，你會感到步履蹣跚嗎？

Qualcomm's got probably the leading LTE solution.

高通可能擁有領先的 LTE 解決方案。

I see Ericsson's still struggling, who you're partnering with often in OMAP, and [Finion] -- we could go down the list.

我看到愛立信仍在苦苦掙扎，你在 OMAP 中經常與誰合作，還有 [Finion]——我們可以在名單上排名靠後。

There aren't that many LTE solutions.

LTE 解決方案並不多。

In fact, Samsung would have worked on their own, I think, if paired with maybe one of your products.

事實上，我認為，如果三星與你們的其中一款產品搭配使用，他們本來可以獨立工作的。

Are you feeling -- is there a risk that maybe not having a baseband, especially a 4G baseband could imperil that business?

您是否覺得 - 沒有基帶，尤其是 4G 基帶可能危及該業務是否存在風險？

Is it something that you're working with your partners on, or do you think it's all just going to equalize out in the next year or so, and that there will be a robust merchant market for LTE, and not one dominant supplier?

這是您正在與您的合作夥伴合作的事情，還是您認為這一切都將在未來一年左右平衡，並且會有一個強大的 LTE 商業市場，而不是一個占主導地位的供應商？

I guess part of that question comes with if there are limited suppliers of LTE base fans, will they be able to successfully, through heavy-handed approaches, leverage that into application processor business.

我想這個問題的一部分來自於如果 LTE 基礎風扇的供應商有限，他們是否能夠通過嚴厲的方法成功地將其用於應用處理器業務。

I guess what I would say is, I think the customers in this space tend to be pretty powerful, and those types of approaches by -- or suppliers try to bundle and leverage and all that kind of stuff, tend to be pretty short-term successes with those customers.

我想我要說的是，我認為這個領域的客戶往往非常強大，而這些類型的方法——或者供應商試圖捆綁和利用以及所有類似的東西，往往是短期的與這些客戶取得成功。

I don't think -- we think the momentum clearly is toward integrated applications processors -- I'm sorry to discrete applications processors versus integrated and a bundled chip set, I wouldn't put in that same category.

我不認為——我們認為勢頭顯然是朝著集成應用處理器發展的——我很抱歉將分立應用處理器與集成和捆綁芯片組放在一起，我不會將其歸入同一類別。

I don't think that's a good long-term success for a supplier, in terms of an approach to take.

就採取的方法而言，我不認為這對供應商來說是一個長期的成功。

We'll see, but we don't view that as a significant threat today.

我們會看到，但我們今天並不認為這是一個重大威脅。

Do you have a follow-on, Ed?

你有後續嗎，艾德？

I guess that was your follow-on.

我想那是你的後續行動。

Okay, thank you, Ed, and we'll move to the next caller.

好的，謝謝你，埃德，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆科維羅，高盛。

Great, good evening, guys.

太好了，晚上好，伙計們。

Thanks so much for giving me a chance to ask a question.

非常感謝給我一個提問的機會。

I want to go back, sort of a derivation to the good question that John Pitzer asked earlier on gross margins.

我想回到過去，有點像 John Pitzer 早些時候提出的關於毛利率的好問題。

First of all, looks like the implied gross margin guidance is down a couple hundred basis points for the first quarter.

首先，第一季度隱含的毛利率指引似乎下降了幾百個基點。

Just want to make sure I'm not too far off on the ballpark, there.

只是想確保我離球場不太遠，那裡。

Secondly, is there some sort of ratio or algorithm we could think about for gross margins ramping, X percent of revenue growth?

其次，我們是否可以考慮某種比率或算法來提高毛利率，即收入增長的 X%？

Again, I know mix is going to drive some of it, but X percent revenue growth is going to drive X percent margin expansion?

同樣，我知道混合會推動其中的一部分，但 X% 的收入增長將推動 X% 的利潤增長？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jim, I think you're about right on your gross margin modeling.

吉姆，我認為你的毛利率模型是正確的。

It is down.

它下來了。

To be very explicit, I gave the GPM dollar guidance that we were talking about, given the mid-point of our guidance, so in fact it is down, and I would remind you --

非常明確地說，鑑於我們指導的中點，我給出了我們正在討論的 GPM 美元指導，所以實際上它是下降的，我會提醒你——

So it would be down only if charges were excluded out of the fourth quarter number, correct?

所以只有在第四季度的數字中排除費用才會下降，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I would also remind you that the first quarter sees, as normal pay and benefits increases in our manufacturing operation, as well as our other support groups -- and plus, we've moved from an attrition environment and manufacturing to an increasing staffing environment in manufacturing.

我還要提醒您，第一季度看到，隨著我們製造業務以及我們其他支持團隊的正常薪酬和福利增加——此外，我們已經從人員流失環境和製造業轉變為人員配備增加的環境製造業。

So those things are going to be adding manufacturing costs from 4Q going into 1Q.

因此，從第四季度到第一季度，這些事情將增加製造成本。

To your question as to some algorithm, frankly we're sitting right now at a utilization level in the low 50s%.

對於您關於某些算法的問題，坦率地說，我們現在的利用率水平處於 50% 以下。

Any incremental level will follow-through quite well when you've got these utilization levels like that.

當您擁有這樣的利用率級別時，任何增量級別都會很好地跟進。

I think that we'll see our gross margins begin to back up rather nicely with fairly modest revenue growth.

我認為我們會看到我們的毛利率開始相當不錯地回升，收入增長相當適度。

There is no particular algorithm I can offer to you, though.

不過，我無法為您提供特定的算法。

I'd just simply say you can pretty much model it through on a delta basis as you have in the past.

我只是簡單地說，您幾乎可以像過去一樣在增量基礎上對其進行建模。

Just take your revenue assumption quarter-over-quarter and drop that through.

只需按季度計算您的收入假設，然後放棄即可。

I think many people drop that through at 60%-odd.

我想很多人都會放棄 60% 的機率。

That's a pretty good way to get to what you think your gross margins are going to be going forward.

這是獲得您認為未來毛利率的好方法。

Jim, I think we also gave you how much utilization impact was there in the fourth quarter, as well as where our Company utilization was overall.

吉姆，我想我們還給了你第四季度的利用率影響，以及我們公司的整體利用率。

So it'll give you a little bit of idea as to how to potentially map that going forward as utilization goes up.

因此，它會讓您了解如何隨著利用率的提高潛在地映射它。

Do you have a follow-on, Jim?

你有後續嗎，吉姆？

Yes, I guess just a simple follow-up.

是的，我想只是一個簡單的跟進。

The baseband falling away.

基帶脫落。

Is that simply a function of your competitor finally getting that product ramped up.

這僅僅是您的競爭對手最終提高該產品的功能嗎？

Is that the driver there, or is there assumption on underlying customer share loss?

是那裡的驅動因素，還是對潛在客戶份額損失的假設？

Maybe a little bit of both, but I think there are some competitors that are in the process of shipping more product into that customer, but there could be -- we'll just have to see how that customer translates their product positions into sales, but I think I would allow we have competitors that are now in the process of ramping.

也許兩者都有一點，但我認為有一些競爭對手正在向該客戶運送更多產品，但可能 - 我們只需要看看該客戶如何將他們的產品定位轉化為銷售，但我想我會允許我們有競爭對手，他們現在正處於發展過程中。

Okay, Jim, thanks for your questions and we'll move to the next caller.

好的，吉姆，謝謝你的問題，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Chris Caso, Susquehanna Financial Group

克里斯卡索，薩斯奎哈納金融集團

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

Just wondering, to follow-up on some of your earlier comments with respect to the 2009 cycle.

只是想跟進您之前關於 2009 年周期的一些評論。

Following the rebound that you guys saw in early 2009 that was followed by some supply shortages, as you guys weren't prepared for the business to come back as aggressively as it did.

在你們在 2009 年初看到的反彈之後出現了一些供應短缺，因為你們沒有為業務像以前那樣積極地恢復做好準備。

It sounds like -- and I guess, first part of my question, correct me if I'm wrong in the assumption -- that sounds like you're trying to put the manufacturing assets in place, at least the variable assets, to prevent that from occurring again.

這聽起來像是——我想，我的問題的第一部分，如果我的假設有誤，請糾正我——聽起來你正試圖將製造資產，至少是可變資產，以防止再次發生。

What does that mean going forward as we look through this next cycle?

當我們回顧下一個週期時，這意味著什麼？

What point do you guys decide to ramp up the manufacturing a little bit more, perhaps put some more inventory in place to avoid what happened during that cycle?

你們決定在什麼時候增加製造量，或者增加一些庫存以避免在那個週期中發生什麼？

Yes Chris, again, just to kind of look back, one of the easy metrics to look at -- although it is backwards-looking, but it's still somewhat instructive is days of inventory.

是的，克里斯，再次回顧一下，一個容易看的指標——雖然它是向後看的，但它仍然有點指導意義是庫存天數。

We were in the mid-70s back as that cycle began to spring back.

當那個週期開始回彈時，我們回到了 70 年代中期。

This time we're sitting about 90 to 92 days.

這次我們坐了大約 90 到 92 天。

Clearly, we've got more available inventory on hand.

顯然，我們手頭有更多可用庫存。

Also if you go back and recall the history from back in that point in time, we, like may others, fairly significantly reduced our total work force leading into that downturn.

此外，如果你回過頭來回顧那個時間點的歷史，我們和其他人一樣，相當顯著地減少了導致經濟低迷的總勞動力。

Consequently, when demand did snap back, it took some time to bring the work force back on, and get them trained and get them productive.

因此，當需求確實回升時，需要一些時間才能讓勞動力重新投入工作，並對他們進行培訓並提高他們的工作效率。

In this example that we've just gone through, we have not taken that same action.

在我們剛剛經歷的這個例子中，我們沒有採取同樣的行動。

In fact, what we did is we slowed our idle factories for a few days where it made sense, but other than attrition, we've maintained that staff on hand.

事實上，我們所做的是在合理的情況下將閒置工廠放慢幾天，但除了減員外，我們還保留了手頭的員工。

We have a trained work force already in place.

我們已經擁有訓練有素的員工隊伍。

As demand does snap back, we will have the benefit of largely already-trained work force and just having to add incrementally, and we'll have the benefit of starting out with considerably more inventory than we had the last time.

隨著需求的回升，我們將受益於大部分已經受過培訓的勞動力，只需逐步增加，我們將受益於開始時庫存比上次多得多。

You put those together and we think we're much better positioned this time to meet strong snap-backs and still be able to deliver reasonable lead times to our customers and deliver revenue and profit to our shareholders.

你把這些放在一起，我們認為這次我們處於更好的位置，可以迎接強勁的反彈，並且仍然能夠為我們的客戶提供合理的交貨時間，並為我們的股東帶來收入和利潤。

Do you have a follow on, Chris?

你有後續嗎，克里斯？

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

I guess as a follow-on about the OMAP business, and you talked about the business going forward with respect to your success in that business.

我想作為 OMAP 業務的後續，你談到了關於你在該業務中取得成功的業務發展。

Perhaps you could talk about what you're feeling is still about the synergies of that business with the analog business?

也許您可以談談您仍然認為該業務與模擬業務的協同作用？

I'm sure that you're getting some analyst sockets as a result of having the OMAP business, but I'd also assume that perhaps some of your competitors are more reluctant to put you on reference designs because you have that business.

我敢肯定，由於擁有 OMAP 業務，您將獲得一些分析師職位，但我也認為，也許您的一些競爭對手更不願意將您置於參考設計中，因為您擁有該業務。

How do you guys balance that internally?

你們如何在內部平衡這一點？

Chris, all the above are probably the cases, where by being in OMAP we'll pull through power management products just because we have the insight, first of all, so therefore we can have the companion power management ICs ready to go when we introduce the new OMAP products.

克里斯，以上所有情況都可能是這樣的情況，通過加入 OMAP，我們將推出電源管理產品只是因為我們有洞察力，首先，因此我們可以在推出時準備好配套的電源管理 IC新的 OMAP 產品。

In many cases, the customer just find it easier to use TI.

在許多情況下，客戶只是覺得使用 TI 更容易。

We also have competitors that will use TI as part of their reference design.

我們也有競爭對手將使用 TI 作為其參考設計的一部分。

Might they -- the fact that we're a competitor, is that a consideration?

他們可能——我們是競爭對手這一事實是一個考慮因素嗎？

I don't really know when, if they don't have an analog capability internally, but that could be the case.

我真的不知道什麼時候，如果他們內部沒有模擬功能，但情況可能就是這樣。

When it comes down to it, whether we are in OMAP or not, we don't look so much at potential synergies, I would say, between analog and OMAP.

歸根結底，無論我們是否在 OMAP 中，我們都不太關注模擬和 OMAP 之間的潛在協同作用。

Rather, we look at just the smart phone opportunity is a great growth opportunity, and it aligns well with the capabilities that we have in connectivity, and OMAP, and then also in analog.

相反，我們只看智能手機機會是一個巨大的增長機會，它與我們在連接、OMAP 以及模擬方面的能力非常吻合。

We really don't go so much across -- well, do we get pull-through of analog products because we're in OMAP.

我們真的沒有那麼多——好吧，我們是否因為我們在 OMAP 中而獲得模擬產品。

Some of that may occur, but boy we sure don't try to rationalize the OMAP business plan based on synergies with analog, is probably the best way to describe it.

其中一些可能會發生，但是我們肯定不會嘗試根據與模擬的協同作用來合理化 OMAP 業務計劃，這可能是描述它的最佳方式。

Okay operator, I think we have time for one final caller, please.

好的接線員，我想我們有時間請最後一位來電者。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel Nicolaus.

Tore Svanberg，Stifel Nicolaus。

Yes, thanks for squeezing me in.

是的，謝謝你把我擠進去。

First question, just going back to visibility, and I know you can't sort of predict what bookings is going to do this quarter.

第一個問題，回到可見性，我知道你無法預測本季度的預訂情況。

Just given the month of December and January, is it safe to say that booked-to-bill is positive for those two months?

僅給出 12 月和 1 月，可以肯定地說這兩個月的預訂到賬單為正嗎？

Tore, let me not get into breaking a quarter down in terms of booked-to-bill, because the tough part on booked-to-bill is you have multiple variables in the numerator and the denominator that can swing that number around pretty dramatically, and what we've seen in terms of strength thus far in January -- boy, I sure don't want to try to extrapolate that out through the end of the quarter.

撕裂，讓我不要在預訂到賬單方面打破四分之一，因為預訂到賬單的困難部分是你在分子和分母中有多個變量可以非常顯著地擺動這個數字，以及我們在 1 月份到目前為止所看到的實力——男孩，我當然不想嘗試將其推斷到本季度末。

We're optimistic, but again, let me wait until we get further along.

我們很樂觀，但再一次，讓我等到我們走得更遠。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes, that's fair.

是的，這很公平。

I'll have an easier follow-up to Kevin.

我將更輕鬆地跟進凱文。

Kevin, the $700 million CapEx for the year, should we model that to be fairly linear?

凱文，今年的資本支出為 7 億美元，我們是否應該將其建模為相當線性的？

For now, Tore, I would go ahead and recommend that's probably not a bad way to look at it.

現在，Tore，我會繼續並建議這可能是一個不錯的看待它的方式。

By the way, Tore, there's no requirement you give Kevin the easy questions.

順便說一下，Tore，你沒必要向 Kevin 提出簡單的問題。

In fact I would encourage otherwise.

事實上，我會鼓勵其他方式。

With that, I think we're about ready to wrap up.

有了這個，我想我們準備好結束了。

Thank all of you, so thank you for joining us.

謝謝大家，感謝你們加入我們。

A replay of the call is available on our website.

我們的網站上提供了通話重播。

Good evening.

晚上好。

That concludes the conference.

會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。