Ternium SA (TX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。我叫布倫特，今天我將成為你們的接線員。此時，我謹歡迎大家參加 Ternium 2023 年第二季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Sebastian Marti. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的電話轉給塞巴斯蒂安·馬蒂。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Marti, and I am Ternium's Global IR and Compliance, Senior Director. Ternium released yesterday its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2023. This call is complementary to that presentation.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我叫 Sebastian Marti，是 Ternium 的全球 IR 和合規高級總監。 Ternium 昨天發布了 2023 年第二季度和上半年的財務業績。本次電話會議是對該演示的補充。

Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, Maximo Vedoya; and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

今天加入我的是 Ternium 首席執行官 Maximo Vedoya；以及公司首席財務官 Pablo Brizzio，他將討論 Ternium 的商業環境和業績。在我們準備好的發言結束時，將舉行問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議包含前瞻性信息，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有所不同。可能影響結果的因素包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天網絡廣播演示文稿的第 2 頁中。

You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday.

您還可以在昨天發布的新聞稿中找到與最直接可比的 IFRS 指標一致的非 IFRS 財務指標的參考信息。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Vedoya 先生。

Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. In this quarter, we reported a strong set of results with adjusted EBITDA of $883 million equivalent to a margin of 23%.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。早上好，感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。在本季度，我們公佈了一系列強勁的業績，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.83 億美元，相當於 23% 的利潤率。

We also announced the location of Ternium's new upstream mill in our Pesqueria industrial center in Mexico, completing the integration of our facility in the country.

我們還宣布將 Ternium 的新上游工廠選址在墨西哥 Pesqueria 工業中心，完成我們在該國工廠的整合。

And finally, we completed the acquisition of additional shares in the control group of Usiminas, a change that enabled us to have a more direct involvement in the company's management and the implementation of its strategy.

最後，我們完成了對Usiminas控制集團額外股份的收購，這一變化使我們能夠更直接地參與公司的管理和戰略的實施。

Let me comment about the opportunities this positioning offer us in our main markets. In Mexico, Ternium is presented with 2 main opportunities: substitution imports in the market; and taking advantage of the near-shoring of manufacturing capacity.

讓我評論一下這種定位為我們在主要市場提供的機會。在墨西哥，Ternium 面臨兩個主要機會：市場上的替代進口；並利用製造能力的近岸外包。

Over the years, the flat steel market in Mexico has continually increased its sophistication. Before we began building our facility in Pesqueria, the manufacturing industrial sector in Mexico represented 50% of apparent flat steel use. Last year this went up to 66%, more than 15 percentage point increase. This sector demands high value-added products that require technology, know-how and lengthy certification process. On top of this, a good share of flat steel consumption in Mexico is still being served by imports, which represent about 40% of the market.

多年來，墨西哥扁鋼市場的複雜程度不斷提高。在我們開始在 Pesqueria 建設工廠之前，墨西哥的製造業佔扁鋼表觀用量的 50%。去年這一比例上升至 66%，增幅超過 15 個百分點。該行業需要高附加值的產品，需要技術、專業知識和漫長的認證過程。除此之外，墨西哥扁鋼消費的很大一部分仍然由進口提供，約佔市場的 40%。

Over the past 10 years, most of our investments in the country have targeted the growth in industrial customer consumption of high value-added products as well as a substitution of imports to this same market. A focus on sophisticated products and service enable us to compete based on differentiation, customer service and product development.

過去10年來，我們在該國的大部分投資都瞄準了工業客戶對高附加值產品的消費增長以及同一市場的進口替代。對先進產品和服務的關注使我們能夠在差異化、客戶服務和產品開發的基礎上進行競爭。

On the other hand, as we have mentioned several times, reassuring is something that is happening, and it is doing so faster than we expected. The 15% increase in the flat steel industrial market in Mexico is also linked to this dynamic.

另一方面，正如我們多次提到的，令人放心的是正在發生的事情，而且它的進展速度比我們預期的要快。墨西哥扁鋼工業市場15%的增長也與這一動態有關。

The pace of investment in the north of the country has been very significant, and it has so far captured more than 2/3 of the total re-assuring demand coming to Mexico. This is reflected in our updated expectation for steel consumption in Mexico in 2023 with a growth of 4.3% compared to 2022, [where] [steel] at our previous estimation released in April was 2.5%.

該國北部的投資步伐非常顯著，迄今為止已佔據墨西哥總安全需求的 2/3 以上。這反映在我們對 2023 年墨西哥鋼鐵消費量的最新預期中，與 2022 年相比增長 4.3%，而我們之前 4 月份發布的預測為 2.5%。

With this background in mind, the new slab mill in Pesqueria will be a key part of our growth strategy in the region. It will complement the integration of our facilities in Mexico, substantially accelerating our capacity to respond to changes in the market. And of course, it will significantly help with our decarbonization targets.

考慮到這一背景，佩斯克里亞的新板坯軋機將成為我們在該地區增長戰略的關鍵部分。它將補充我們在墨西哥的設施整合，大大加快我們應對市場變化的能力。當然，這將極大地幫助我們實現脫碳目標。

In addition, we are reinforcing our position as a leading steel supplier in the region with our downstream investment program. We are going deeper into new value-added products which will help us better serve our customers in the automotive, renewable energy and home appliance industries, among others. These projects represent an excellent opportunity for us to continue capturing demand from high-end steel products in Mexico.

此外，我們還通過下游投資計劃鞏固我們作為該地區領先鋼鐵供應商的地位。我們正在深入開發新的增值產品，這將幫助我們更好地服務汽車、可再生能源和家電行業等行業的客戶。這些項目為我們繼續抓住墨西哥高端鋼鐵產品的需求提供了絕佳的機會。

Let me now make some comments about Brazil. As a first step, after the increase of our (inaudible) steel has substantial opportunities to start growing consistently again under a new trend of industrialization which should support an increased intensity in the use of steel.

現在讓我對巴西發表一些評論。作為第一步，在我們的（聽不清）鋼鐵增長之後，在工業化的新趨勢下有大量機會再次開始持續增長，這應該支持鋼鐵使用強度的增加。

Turning now to Argentina, we currently continue to see stable steel demand from the third quarter, similar to shipments in the Southern region during the second quarter. But there is an election process underway that will be over by the end of the year. The country also need significant macroeconomic reforms and it's probably going to get them sooner rather than later. We expect this to negatively impact this market in the near future.

現在轉向阿根廷，我們目前繼續看到第三季度的鋼鐵需求穩定，與第二季度南部地區的出貨量類似。但選舉進程正在進行中，將於今年年底結束。該國還需要重大的宏觀經濟改革，而且可能宜早不宜遲。我們預計這將在不久的將來對該市場產生負面影響。

Before I wrap up my prepared remarks, I would like to make some brief comments about a very important matter, safety. 2 weeks ago, we celebrated our Annual Safety Day event. The event was scheduled with various activities throughout the week, including expert panels and the sharing of our team leaders' experience in the different countries where we operate. A recent change in this respect is that since the beginning of July, the position in-charge of safety, the EHS Vice President, has a direct report to me, enabling an even closer review of our safety performance.

在結束我準備好的發言之前，我想就一個非常重要的問題——安全——做一些簡短的評論。兩週前，我們慶祝了年度安全日活動。該活動在一周內安排了各種活動，包括專家小組討論以及分享我們團隊領導在我們開展業務的不同國家的經驗。最近這方面的一個變化是，從7月初開始，負責安全的職位，即EHS副總裁，直接向我報告，使我們能夠更仔細地審查我們的安全績效。

Finally, we issued last month our Sustainability Report. We included this -- included there a comprehensive description of our activities regarding climate change, environmental issues, human resources and our relationship with the communities where we operate which are all considered when assessing our business strategies. I encourage you to take a look.

最後，我們上個月發布了可持續發展報告。我們將這一點納入其中，全面描述了我們在氣候變化、環境問題、人力資源以及我們與經營所在社區的關係方面的活動，這些在評估我們的業務戰略時都會考慮在內。我鼓勵你看一下。

Let me now make some final comments to prepare or to close my prepared remarks. The regionalization of steel market recently exacerbated by nearshoring is a dynamic for which we have been preparing for a long time. With an aggressive growth strategy in Mexico, our expansion in Brazil and the new role for Usiminas, our new R&D capabilities, a unique product portfolio offering throughout Latin America and the integration of ESG into our business strategy, I believe we are a stronger company now, a regional leader with greater integration. We have significant opportunities for growth in markets that we know and have great potential. The next steps of development will transform our company once again, strengthening even more our competitive position.

現在讓我做一些最後的評論，以準備或結束我準備好的發言。最近因近岸外包而加劇的鋼鐵市場區域化是我們已經準備了很長時間的動態。憑藉在墨西哥的積極增長戰略、我們在巴西的擴張以及Usiminas 的新角色、我們的新研發能力、在整個拉丁美洲提供的獨特產品組合以及將ESG 納入我們的業務戰略，我相信我們現在是一家更強大的公司，一體化程度更高的區域領導者。我們在我們了解並具有巨大潛力的市場中擁有巨大的增長機會。下一步的發展將再次改變我們的公司，進一步加強我們的競爭地位。

All right. Pablo, please, you can now go ahead with the presentation of Ternium performance in the second quarter.

好的。 Pablo，請您現在可以繼續介紹 Ternium 第二季度的業績。

Thanks, Maximo, and good morning to everybody. Let's review Ternium's performance during the quarter. Expected improving market conditions during the second quarter, particularly in North America, together with a normalization of production costs derived in a robust set of results for the period.

謝謝馬克西莫，大家早上好。讓我們回顧一下 Ternium 在本季度的表現。預計第二季度市場狀況將有所改善，特別是在北美，加上生產成本正常化，將帶來一系列強勁的業績。

On Page 3 of the presentation, you can see the performance of Ternium's EBITDA and net income on a quarterly basis. Adjusted EBITDA reached $883 million in the second quarter on a margin of 23% of net sales or $296 per ton. The improved operating performance led to net income of $736 million in the period with an earnings per ADS of $3.19.

在演示文稿的第 3 頁上，您可以看到 Ternium 每個季度的 EBITDA 和淨利潤的表現。第二季度調整後 EBITDA 達到 8.83 億美元，占淨銷售額的 23%，即每噸 296 美元。經營業績的改善導致該期間淨利潤達到 7.36 億美元，每股美國存託憑證收益為 3.19 美元。

Before we continue, let me call your attention on the fact that so far, we have been accounting for Usiminas results as equity in earnings for nonconsolidated companies with no impact on Ternium's operating numbers. After the recent acquisition of additional shares of Usiminas, Ternium increased its stakes in Usiminas control group, and consequently, Ternium results in the third quarter of 2023 will fully consolidate Usiminas results. The consolidation of Usiminas' financial data will have a significant impact on Ternium reporting in the third quarter.

在我們繼續之前，讓我提請您注意這樣一個事實：到目前為止，我們一直將 Usiminas 的業績視為非合併公司收益中的權益，對 Ternium 的運營數據沒有影響。在最近增持Usiminas股份後，Ternium增加了在Usiminas控制集團的股份，因此，Ternium 2023年第三季度的業績將全面合併Usiminas業績。 Usiminas 財務數據的合併將對 Ternium 第三季度的報告產生重大影響。

Today's qualitative guidance on Ternium achievement, margin, adjusted EBITDA and CapEx for the third quarter will not account for the impact of Usiminas consolidation, because we believe it takes more sense that they remain comparable with the number reported in the second quarter.

今天對 Ternium 第三季度業績、利潤率、調整後 EBITDA 和資本支出的定性指導不會考慮 Usiminas 合併的影響，因為我們認為，它們與第二季度報告的數字保持可比更有意義。

Having said that, let me turn to our analysis of Ternium's second quarter results. [Let's] review now steel shipments on Page 4 of the presentation. In Mexico, steel volumes were 2 million tons in the second quarter, slightly below the first quarter, all-time high. On a year-over-year basis, shipment increased 21% in the second quarter supported by a remarkable market share gain in Mexico flat steel business over the last 12 months. However, Ternium shipments in Mexico in the second quarter fall short of our expectations mainly due to supply chain constraints with raw material and finished steel at our facility.

話雖如此，讓我來談談對 Ternium 第二季度業績的分析。 [讓我們] 現在回顧一下演示文稿第 4 頁上的鋼鐵發貨情況。在墨西哥，第二季度鋼鐵產量為200萬噸，略低於第一季度的歷史最高水平。受過去 12 個月墨西哥板材業務市場份額顯著增長的推動，第二季度出貨量同比增長 21%。然而，第二季度墨西哥的 Ternium 出貨量未達到我們的預期，主要是由於我們工廠原材料和成品鋼材的供應鏈限制。

Looking forward, we expect shipments to increase in Mexico in the third quarter. Apparent steel demand remains healthy. The industrial market continues to show strong activity, with special mention to the automotive industry as well as to the white-goods industry. For the time being, we have not seen any sign of restoration in the North American market.

展望未來，我們預計第三季度墨西哥的出貨量將增加。鋼鐵表觀需求依然健康。工業市場繼續表現出強勁的活動，特別是汽車行業和白色家電行業。目前，我們還沒有看到北美市場有任何復甦的跡象。

In addition, the commercial market in Mexico remains steady. It is a more volatile market and is more sensitive to price trends and to steel inventory levels, but we do not believe inventories are higher this time.

此外，墨西哥商業市場保持穩定。這是一個波動性更大的市場，對價格趨勢和鋼材庫存水平更加敏感，但我們認為這次庫存不會更高。

In the Southern region, shipments in the second quarter were 563,000 tons, slightly higher sequentially mainly as a higher shipments in Argentina, following a seasonally slow first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, volume decreased 5%, reflecting lower steel demand in Argentina and reduced export to other countries in the Southern region. Looking forward, we expect shipments to remain relatively stable in this region.

在南部地區，第二季度的發貨量為 563,000 噸，環比略有上升，主要是由於阿根廷的發貨量在第一季度季節性放緩後有所增加。銷量同比下降 5%，反映出阿根廷鋼鐵需求下降以及對南部地區其他國家的出口減少。展望未來，我們預計該地區的出貨量將保持相對穩定。

Turning now to other markets. Volume decreased concurrently with the company increase integration and growing presence in Mexico. In this regard, Ternium's slab facility in Brazil increased shipments to the company's downstream facilities in Mexico.

現在轉向其他市場。隨著公司整合度的提高以及在墨西哥業務的擴大，銷量也隨之下降。在這方面，Ternium 位於巴西的板坯工廠增加了對該公司位於墨西哥下游工廠的發貨量。

In the next page, #5, you can see that combining these developments, we arrived at a consolidated shipment of 3 million tons in the second quarter, slightly below the first quarter level. Looking forward and without taking into consideration Usiminas consolidation, we anticipate consolidated shipments to increase sequentially in the third quarter.

在下一頁#5 中，您可以看到，結合這些進展，我們在第二季度的綜合發貨量為 300 萬噸，略低於第一季度的水平。展望未來，在不考慮 Usiminas 合併的情況下，我們預計第三季度合併出貨量將環比增長。

Moving on to steel prices. Revenue per ton in the second quarter increased sequentially by close to $120 per ton. The main driver behind the sequential increase in revenue per ton was the strength of the North America in steel market during the period. We expect Ternium consolidated revenue per ton to decrease sequentially in the third quarter due to the impact of the current weaker steel pricing environment, which is expected to prevail over the positive impact of better contract prices in Mexico in the period.

繼續關注鋼材價格。第二季度每噸收入環比增長近 120 美元。每噸收入環比增長的主要推動力是期內北美鋼鐵市場的強勁。我們預計，由於當前鋼鐵定價環境疲軟的影響，第三季度Ternium每噸綜合收入將環比下降，預計該影響將蓋過墨西哥同期合同價格改善的積極影響。

Let's review now on Page 6 the main drivers behind the improvement, the performance of the second quarter. The sequential increase in EBITDA -- adjusted EBITDA was mainly the result of higher realized steel prices and to a lesser extent, lower costs, including lower purchase slabs and energy prices, partially offset by higher maintenance expenses and services costs.

現在讓我們在第 6 頁回顧一下第二季度業績改善背後的主要推動因素。調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長主要是由於實現的鋼材價格上漲，以及較小程度上成本下降的結果，包括採購板坯和能源價格的下降，但部分被維護費用和服務成本上升所抵消。

Looking forward, we expect a sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter on lower adjusted EBITDA margin driven by the decrease in revenue per ton, as explained, and slightly higher cost per ton, partially offset by higher shipments.

展望未來，我們預計第三季度調整後EBITDA 將環比下降，原因是每噸收入下降導致調整後EBITDA 利潤率下降（如前所述），以及每噸成本略有上升（部分被出貨量增加所抵消）。

The net income chart at the bottom shows that the sequential improvement was partially driven by better operational results. The income tax result was again very low in the second quarter with an effective tax rate of just 1%, reflecting a gain in deferred tax results as Ternium's Mexican subsidiary in connection with the Mexican peso, 6% appreciation during the quarter.

底部的淨利潤圖表顯示，連續改善部分是由於更好的運營業績所致。第二季度的所得稅結果再次非常低，有效稅率僅為 1%，反映出由於 Ternium 的墨西哥子公司與墨西哥比索相關的遞延稅結果的增長，本季度墨西哥比索升值了 6%。

Let's now turn to Page 7 to analyze changes in cash flow and net cash position. Cash flow operation was $48 million in the second quarter, which includes the negative effect of $605 million increase in working capital. This was mainly due to $414 million increase in steel inventories as we revealed our steel inventories in Mexico after the decrease in the previous quarters, and to an $89 million increase in trade and other receivables. We are not expecting working capital increases like this further on.

現在讓我們轉向第7頁來分析現金流量和淨現金頭寸的變化。第二季度運營現金流為 4800 萬美元，其中包括營運資金增加 6.05 億美元的負面影響。這主要是由於我們在前幾個季度減少後披露了墨西哥的鋼鐵庫存，導致鋼鐵庫存增加了 4.14 億美元，以及貿易和其他應收款增加了 8900 萬美元。我們預計營運資金不會進一步增加。

The development led to $150 million tons negative free cash flow in the second quarter of 2023 after CapEx of $198 million. As we progress with our investment plan in Mexico, we expect CapEx to continue increasing in the second half of the year, [$1 billion] by the end of June, decreased in $800 million in the second quarter. This reduction mainly reflects the free cash flow results, a dividend paid to shareholders amounting to $353 million and a dividend in kind paid to non-controlling interest accounting to $234 million.

這一發展導致 2023 年第二季度在資本支出 1.98 億美元之後出現 1.5 億噸負自由現金流。隨著我們在墨西哥的投資計劃取得進展，我們預計下半年資本支出將繼續增加，截至 6 月底為 [10 億美元]，第二季度減少 8 億美元。這一減少主要反映了自由現金流結果，支付給股東的股息為3.53億美元，以及支付給非控股權益會計的實物股息為2.34億美元。

Turning to Page 8 to review the numbers on the longer-term perspective. Consolidated shipments in the first half were 6 million tons, similar to shipment levels in the first half of last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion in the period and a margin of 19% of net sales. This led to a net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per ADS of $5.10.

請翻到第 8 頁，從長遠角度回顧這些數字。上半年綜合出貨量為600萬噸，與去年上半年的出貨水平相似。該期間調整後 EBITDA 為 14 億美元，利潤率為淨銷售額的 19%。這使得淨利潤達到 12 億美元，每股美國存託憑證收益達到 5.10 美元。

We also paid the second part of our real dividend in May with a payment of $1.80 per ADS. It has increased shareholder return over the last years, and we will strive to sustain or improve.

我們還於 5 月份支付了第二部分實際股息，每份 ADS 支付 1.80 美元。過去幾年它增加了股東回報，我們將努力維持或改善。

In slide #9, you can see that the cash flow performance with cash flow operation of $360 million in the first half of the year after working capital increase of [$387 million] volumes on trade receivables. This led to free cash flow of $265 million in the first half of this year after CapEx totaling $395 million.

在幻燈片 #9 中，您可以看到，在應收賬款營運資本增加 [3.87 億美元] 後，上半年現金流運營的現金流績效為 3.6 億美元。這使得今年上半年的自由現金流達到 2.65 億美元，資本支出總額為 3.95 億美元。

Okay. With this, we finish our prepared remarks. Thank you very much for your attention and participation today, and we are now ready to take your questions. Please, operator, proceed with the [Q&A].

好的。至此，我們準備好的發言結束了。非常感謝您今天的關注和參與，我們現在準備回答您的問題。請操作員繼續進行[問答]。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴（Carlos De Alba）。

So, several questions, but let me stick to maybe 2 right now. The first one is on Usiminas' consolidation. Pablo, you mentioned you're going to be fully consolidating the business, but obviously, the impact on the overall company number's negative given that Usiminas is struggling at the moment, and hence, I guess, the opportunity for Ternium going forward. But how are you planning on (technical Difficulty] and we all can appreciate what the trends are and what has been Ternium up until this time, and the new Ternium with the consolidation of Usiminas. Yes, that will be my first question. I will come back with the second.

那麼，有幾個問題，但現在讓我只回答兩個問題。第一個是關於烏西米納斯的整合。 Pablo，您提到您將全面整合業務，但顯然，考慮到 Usiminas 目前正陷入困境，這對整個公司的影響是負面的，因此，我想，Ternium 未來還有機會。但是你打算如何（技術難度），我們都可以了解趨勢是什麼，到目前為止 Ternium 是什麼，以及合併 Usiminas 後的新 Ternium。是的，這將是我的第一個問題。我會帶著第二個回來。

Let me take that one. Yes, you're right. This is an important -- and what you mentioned is completely right. We will be consolidating Usiminas and the impact of this consolidation in our numbers will be different depending on the line of our financial statements.

讓我拿走那個。你是對的。這很重要——你提到的完全正確。我們將合併 Usiminas，合併對我們數據的影響將根據我們財務報表的內容而有所不同。

Clearly, in the upper lines of our financial statement, in sales achievements and all these numbers, the impact will be not minor. But as you mentioned, looking at the results -- the current result of Usiminas, the impact at the net income, the EBITDA level will be minor in comparison to the other numbers.

顯然，在我們的財務報表的上半部分，在銷售業績和所有這些數字上，影響將不小。但正如您提到的，看看結果——Usiminas 目前的結果，對淨利潤、EBITDA 水平的影響與其他數字相比將很小。

Initially, we will be giving information on a segment basis separated between what we have today, which is the steel segment, the mining segment, and (inaudible) -- and then, of course, we have the consolidation of these 3 segments.

最初，我們將按細分市場提供信息，這些信息分為我們今天擁有的鋼鐵細分市場、採礦細分市場和（聽不清）——然後，當然，我們將整合這三個細分市場。

So, you will have -- I think you have the clarity you will need in order to analyze the numbers. And of course, you know that Usiminas continues to be a public company. So, there you will see also more details on the explanations on the numbers of Usiminas. But this will be at least our initial proposition to resolve the numbers. And then we will analyze if there is a need for changing that, if Maximo decides to look at the number differently. But I guess you will have initially very clear numbers to look at.

因此，我認為您將擁有分析這些數字所需的清晰度。當然，您知道 Usiminas 仍然是一家上市公司。因此，您還可以看到有關烏西米納斯數量解釋的更多詳細信息。但這至少是我們解決這些數字問題的初步提議。然後我們將分析如果 Maximo 決定以不同的方式看待這個數字，是否需要改變這一點。但我想你最初會看到非常清晰的數字。

And then just -- what are the expectation of how should we think from Brazil, you've -- given the greater integration that you have been having in the last few quarters?

然後，考慮到過去幾個季度的更大程度的一體化，我們對巴西應該如何思考有何期望？

Yes. I think it's going to be 0, to be honest. I mean, with Ternium together with Usiminas is going to need to continue buying slabs. So, most likely, all the slabs from Ternium Brazil are going to go either to Usiminas or to Ternium New Mexico or to Ternium Argentina. So, there's not -- probably not going to be any sales slabs.

是的。老實說，我認為它會是0。我的意思是，Ternium 和 Usiminas 將需要繼續購買板材。因此，最有可能的是，來自巴西 Ternium 的所有板坯都將運往烏西米納斯、新墨西哥州 Ternium 或阿根廷 Ternium。所以，可能不會有任何銷售量。

Your next question is from the line of Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco.

你的下一個問題來自蒂亞戈·洛菲耶戈和布拉德斯科的線路。

First question about Usiminas steel. Maximo, could you talk a little bit more about the strategy? You mentioned, the focus would be on the industrial side. So, the question is how much CapEx do you think you will need to deploy in Usiminas to bring the company back or up to the operating efficiency levels that you think is potentially -- your potential target or optimal? So, that's my first question.

關於烏西米納斯鋼鐵的第一個問題。 Maximo，您能多談談這個策略嗎？你提到，重點是工業方面。因此，問題是您認為需要在烏西米納斯部署多少資本支出才能使公司恢復或達到您認為可能的運營效率水平（您的潛在目標或最佳水平）？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is about the slab market demand globally and whether we should see the HRC's lab spread compressing or expanding from here?

我的第二個問題是關於全球板坯市場需求，以及我們是否應該看到 HRC 的實驗室價差從這裡壓縮或擴大？

I'll take the second one first. The slab market, as you know, it's always been not a very big market. I mean, there's not a lot of transaction with labs. We are the biggest, but it's a small number compared to whatever is trading in hot-rolled coils. And we don't see much changes in the gap today. I mean in the future, we think that the gap was more or less sustained at the levels we are.

我先拿第二個。如您所知，板材市場一直不是一個很大的市場。我的意思是，與實驗室的交易並不多。我們是最大的，但與熱軋卷材貿易相比，這個數字很小。今天我們沒有看到差距有太大變化。我的意思是，在未來，我們認為差距或多或少會維持在我們目前的水平。

We got some downs, and you can see that in the history, but today, it's at the level that -- it's the same level of the average for the last 5 or 6 years. Today is the difference., so, again, with the volatility, of course, of the steel industry, but we don't see why it's going to change.

我們經歷了一些下滑，你可以在歷史上看到這一點，但今天，它的水平與過去五六年的平均水平相同。今天是不同的。所以，同樣，鋼鐵行業當然也有波動，但我們不明白為什麼它會改變。

Regarding Usiminas strategy and CapEx, clearly, I mean, we don't have a number of CapEx yet. I'm not -- I don't think I'm able to give you today a number. We -- as I said, we are -- I mean our team is going to Usiminas. People are moving. Marcelo Chara took over as CEO.

關於 Usiminas 戰略和資本支出，顯然，我的意思是，我們還沒有大量的資本支出。我不——我想我今天無法給你一個數字。我們——正如我所說，我們——我的意思是我們的球隊要去烏西米納斯。人們在移動。馬塞洛·查拉 (Marcelo Chara) 接任首席執行官。

But the team of Ternium, some of them are arriving in the near future and we start changng our dynamics of how the company is managed. So, probably, we will spend some months before we can give you an exact number on the CapEx. Clearly, the agenda for Usiminas in the next few months is going to be increase the competitiveness of Usiminas, especially the competition of Ipatinga's upstream CapEx, the blast furnace, the steel shop number 2, and probably to finalize our plan for the coke batteries. So, we have to target the increased efficiency in Usiminas, and this will be the main focus.

但是 Ternium 團隊，其中一些人將在不久的將來到來，我們開始改變公司的管理方式。因此，我們可能需要花費幾個月的時間才能為您提供資本支出的確切數字。顯然，烏西米納斯未來幾個月的議程將是提高烏西米納斯的競爭力，特別是伊帕廷加上游資本支出、高爐、二號鋼廠的競爭，並可能最終確定我們的焦炭電池計劃。因此，我們必須以提高烏西米納斯的效率為目標，這將是主要關注點。

I think the other one is on the commercial side. As you know, several of the customers Usiminas are the same customers of Ternium. So, with this more, let's call it, integration, if you want -- but it's not exactly integration, but we can offer more solution to the customers in all our markets. And so, I think that's the second issue. But I think the first is that we have to focus on the efficiency of the industrial segment of Usiminas.

我認為另一個是商業方面的。如您所知，Usiminas 的幾個客戶也是 Ternium 的客戶。因此，如果您願意的話，我們可以稱之為集成，但這並不完全是集成，但我們可以為所有市場的客戶提供更多解決方案。所以，我認為這是第二個問題。但我認為首先我們必須關注烏西米納斯工業部門的效率。

And you just quickly mentioned about timing for this -- for us to be -- to know a more detailed CapEx number. Do you think this will be like (inaudible) until the end of the year or maybe like a couple of months, just for us to understand?

您剛剛很快提到了我們了解更詳細的資本支出數字的時機。您認為這會（聽不清）直到今年年底還是幾個月，才能讓我們理解？

I mean, we will have a rough idea by the end of the quarter probably, to be honest. But again, it's going to be a moving target in the first few months until the end of the year. But we will have a rough number by the end of the -- you have to take into account, Thiago, that today we are in the middle of the blast furnace, relining and the steel shop number 2, and the problems we have with the battery -- the coke battery.

老實說，我的意思是，我們可能會在本季度末之前有一個粗略的想法。但同樣，從頭幾個月到年底，這將是一個不斷變化的目標。但到年底我們將得到一個粗略的數字——蒂亞戈，你必須考慮到，今天我們正處於高爐、換襯板和 2 號鋼鐵車間的中間，以及我們在電池——可樂電池。

So, people are a little bit stressed in trying -- things are going well. I mean, there is some delay, but I think that we are going to end in the middle of September, but people are much more focused on that and try to finish that in a good way. And in parallel, we are working on these plans. So, by the end of September or at the end of the quarter, we should have something, but it's not going to be the definite one.

所以，人們在嘗試時有點壓力——事情進展順利。我的意思是，有一些延遲，但我認為我們將在九月中旬結束，但人們更加關注這一點，並試圖以良好的方式完成它。與此同時，我們正在製定這些計劃。因此，到 9 月底或本季度末，我們應該會有一些成果，但這不會是確定的。

Your next question is from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Timna Tanners 和 Wolfe Research。

I wanted to see if you wouldn't mind trying to help us refine a bit the comments on your margin outlook and the Mexican shipments. So, obviously, you guided to higher shipments in Mexico. We know that the demand there has been quite strong. And that without [USMCA] running, there's a gap in the market that's being fulfilled with even more imports than normal. I'm just wondering how much more can you ship or are you willing to ship, if you can give us an order of magnitude there?

我想看看您是否介意幫助我們改進對您的利潤前景和墨西哥發貨量的評論。因此，顯然，您引導墨西哥的出貨量增加。我們知道那裡的需求相當強勁。如果沒有[USMCA]運行，市場上的缺口將通過比正常情況更多的進口來填補。我只是想知道如果您能給我們一個數量級，您還能運送多少或者您願意運送多少？

Yes, to be honest, we had a plan that was a bigger shipment for this quarter, and we were not able to fulfill, as Pablo I think mentioned, because of some supply chain constraints. In the raw material coming to Mexico, some problem in one -- in some of our lines and supply chain constraints in the shipment to our customers.

是的，說實話，我們有一個本季度出貨量更大的計劃，但正如我認為巴勃羅提到的那樣，由於一些供應鏈限制，我們無法實現。在運往墨西哥的原材料中，存在一些問題——在向客戶發貨時，我們的一些生產線和供應鏈受到限制。

So, we have much more orders for this quarter than what we shipped. We don't like that. It's not very good for us. So, I think that the next quarter the plan is to ship at least 200,000 tons more, so, a 10% increase roughly. I think some of these constraints have been addressed, but I don't want to promise all of that because, again, it's very tight all the supply chains in Mexico. It's very, very tight, everything. So, but yes, the orders -- we have the orders, and we increased probably even a little bit more than that if we were able to ship them.

因此，本季度我們的訂單比發貨量要多得多。我們不喜歡這樣。這對我們來說不太好。所以，我認為下個季度的計劃是至少增加20萬噸，所以，大約增加10%。我認為其中一些限制已經得到解決，但我不想承諾所有這些，因為墨西哥的所有供應鏈都非常緊張。一切都非常非常緊。所以，但是，是的，訂單——我們有訂單，如果我們能夠發貨的話，我們可能會增加一點點。

You mentioned the other issue is the margin -- expected margin for the third quarter. I think that one important number to look at -- Of course, we have a very good margin during the second quarter, which was 23%. But if you look at the margin that Ternium made during the first part of this year, the first semester, we were at the level of 19%, which is, if you remind, when we have our prior conference calls and meetings that Maximo presented, as a target, for a company to be in the range that we always talk about which is 15% to 20%, but in the upper side of that range. So, we should be in the coming quarters more in line with this level than, of course, to what we have in the third -- in the second quarter.

您提到另一個問題是利潤率——第三季度的預期利潤率。我認為有一個重要的數字值得關注——當然，我們第二季度的利潤率非常好，為 23%。但如果你看看Ternium 在今年上半年（即第一學期）取得的利潤，我們的利潤率為19%，如果你提醒一下，當我們之前召開Maximo 介紹的電話會議和會議時，我們的利潤率為19%作為一個目標，公司要處於我們總是談論的 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，但要處於該範圍的上限。因此，我們在接下來的幾個季度中應該會比第三季度（第二季度）更符合這一水平。

So, usually, for us, it's better to look at the numbers of Ternium in a little more longer time frame than the quarter. But here, it's a clear example of, if we look at what happened during the semester, it is more in line with what we are expected to support.

因此，通常對我們來說，最好在比季度更長的時間範圍內查看 Ternium 的數量。但在這裡，這是一個明顯的例子，如果我們看看本學期發生的事情，它更符合我們期望支持的內容。

Your next question is from the line of Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Caio Ribeiro。

So, I wanted to take advantage of the fact that you'll start to consolidate Usiminas' results right in the coming quarter. I'll ask you a question specifically about the finished flat steel market in Brazil where prices have been coming down recently given the high import parity premiums, weaker demand and also the higher import penetration. I just wanted to get your perspective on how you see flat steel prices evolve in Brazil in the coming weeks and months?

因此，我想利用這樣一個事實，即您將在下個季度開始整合 Usiminas 的業績。我將具體問您一個有關巴西成品板材市場的問題，由於進口平價溢價高、需求疲軟以及進口滲透率較高，巴西成品板材價格最近一直在下跌。我只是想了解您對未來幾周和幾個月巴西扁鋼價格走勢的看法？

And then secondly, with Usiminas in the midst of carrying out maintenance of blast furnace in Ipatinga. So, I wanted to ask you if you have any perspective on what impact and the conclusion of that blast furnace maintenance could have on the margins of the company once it's back up and running at full capacity?

其次，烏西米納斯正在伊帕廷加進行高爐維護。因此，我想問您，一旦高爐恢復並滿負荷運行，您對高爐維護可能會對公司的利潤產生什麼影響和結論有何看法？

Yes. I mean, marketing in Brazil clearly has a problem today with imports. If you see the number of imports is coming monthly to Brazil, it's around 400,000 tons a month, which is the same number as it was in 2021, but with a higher market. For us, this is a very, very big number. And our target is -- to reduce this number should be our target and the target of the other steel companies in Brazil.

是的。我的意思是，如今巴西的營銷顯然在進口方面存在問題。如果你看到巴西每月的進口量，大約是 40 萬噸，與 2021 年的數量相同，但市場更高。對於我們來說，這是一個非常非常大的數字。我們的目標是——減少這個數字應該是我們的目標，也是巴西其他鋼鐵公司的目標。

I think that the other thing is that Brazil has to take into account that in some moment, some trade remedies against and further trade steel, they have to put – all the markets have done that from Argentina, to Mexico, to Colombia, U.S.A., Europe. I mean, everybody except Brazil has target unfair trade.

我認為另一件事是，巴西必須考慮到，在某個時刻，一些針對鋼鐵的貿易救濟措施和進一步的鋼鐵貿易，他們必須把——所有市場都從阿根廷做到了這一點，墨西哥、哥倫比亞、美國、歐洲。我的意思是，除了巴西之外，每個國家都以不公平貿易為目標。

And Brazil used to be a country with a very strong position in this. Somehow in the last years, this position has been a little bit more weak, but I think that we have to -- and I believe the government is -- it's willing to support this. And so, that's the strategy. From one side, we have to take into account that we have to -- let's put -- combat these imports with our commercial efforts, but on the other, unfair trade has to be in the agenda much sooner than later. So, that's your first question.

而巴西曾經是一個在這方面擁有非常強勢地位的國家。不知何故，在過去的幾年裡，這個立場有點軟弱，但我認為我們必須——而且我相信政府——願意支持這一點。這就是策略。一方面，我們必須考慮到，我們必須通過商業努力來打擊這些進口，但另一方面，不公平貿易必須儘早提上議程。所以，這是你的第一個問題。

The second question was about?

第二個問題是關於？

Impact on the -- after the relining of blast furnace on the numbers of Usiminas, (technical difficulty)?

高爐改襯後對烏西米納斯數量的影響（技術難度）？

Well, clearly, the margin will increase. I mean, the blast -- Usimina have 3 blast furnace. The 2 that are operating today, as you know, are very small blast furnace which are much higher cost of production because of the fuel rate. Blast furnace number 3 is a very big one and a very competitive one. So, the numbers are going to change very positive as soon as we start producing. That should be around middle of September. I hope, Caio, I answered the question.

嗯，很明顯，利潤將會增加。我的意思是，高爐——烏西米納有 3 個高爐。如您所知，今天運行的兩座高爐都是非常小的高爐，由於燃料消耗率的原因，生產成本要高得多。 3號高爐是一座非常大的高爐，也是一個非常有競爭力的高爐。因此，一旦我們開始生產，數字就會發生非常積極的變化。應該是九月中旬左右。 Caio，我希望我回答了這個問題。

Is there any way that you can give us a number that you expect? I mean, if margins will return maybe to double digit, above 10% or any sort of guidance on that front?

有什麼辦法可以給我們一個您期望的數字嗎？我的意思是，利潤率是否會恢復到兩位數、10% 以上，或者在這方面有任何指導嗎？

No, I don't have a number today to give you. Yes. No, Caio, not today. Probably next quarter. Even in Usiminas' conference call or on our conference, we can put a target or a number, but I'm not able to put it today.

不，我今天沒有電話號碼可以給你。是的。不，凱奧，今天不行。可能是下個季度。即使在烏西米納斯的電話會議或我們的會議上，我們也可以提出一個目標或一個數字，但我今天無法提出。

Your next question is from Leo Correa with BTG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTG 的 Leo Correa。

So, the first question is a little bit more conceptual, Maximo. I mean, everyone has been following the story for many years, right? And now with Usiminas being consolidated, you guys obviously made a move some years ago with CSA, which has now turned in Brazil, which is also super relevant. Just again -- I know there's no decision, and this is all very conceptual, but would it make any sense -- I mean, do you guys consider at some point entertaining the possibility of potentially merging Usiminas and Ternium Brazil, given the -- I mean, the clear synergies, right, that, that would potentially involve?

所以，第一個問題有點概念化，Maximo。我的意思是，每個人都關注這個故事很多年了，對吧？現在，隨著 Usiminas 的合併，你們顯然在幾年前就與 CSA 進行了合作，該公司現在已經轉向巴西，這也是非常相關的。再說一次——我知道還沒有決定，這都是非常概念性的，但這有任何意義嗎——我的意思是，你們是否考慮在某個時候考慮合併Usiminas 和Ternium Brazil 的可能性，因為— —我的意思是，明顯的協同效應，對吧，這可能涉及？

And the second question is moving more towards market questions. We're seeing, I mean, a bit of volatility, mainly in sheet markets in the U.S., right. We saw prices reacting very sharply early in the year to the upside. Now, we're seeing a bit of a correction. We saw few rounds of price hikes to try to stabilize prices. I mean, just wanted to get your view on where you think prices are headed towards the end of the year? So, those are the 2 questions.

第二個問題更多地轉向市場問題。我的意思是，我們看到了一些波動，主要是在美國板材市場，對吧。我們看到價格在今年年初的上漲反應非常劇烈。現在，我們看到了一些修正。我們看到了幾輪價格上漲，試圖穩定價格。我的意思是，只是想听聽您對今年年底價格走勢的看法？所以，這是兩個問題。

Usiminas and Ternium Brazil. Today, we don't have plans to do something like that. As you know, Usiminas is a public company, and we have an agreement with our partner, Nippon Steel -- that we changed this agreement, but it was clear what the agreement is or what the agreement -- So, for the time being, we are not analyzing anything of that. We do know and we do expect that there's going to be synergies between Usiminas and Ternium that are going to make a positive impact in both companies, not in Ternium or not in Usiminas, in both companies. Of course, the management practices, the complementation with slabs. I mean, clearly, Cubatao and Ternium Brazil are very close by, joining efforts in procurement in -- I mean, putting together the purchasing power of both companies should be a synergy for both companies.

烏西米納斯和巴西特尼姆。今天，我們沒有計劃做類似的事情。如您所知，Usiminas 是一家上市公司，我們與我們的合作夥伴新日鐵達成協議 - 我們更改了該協議，但很清楚該協議是什麼或協議是什麼 - 所以，目前，我們不分析任何內容。我們確實知道並且我們確實預計 Usiminas 和 Ternium 之間將會產生協同效應，這將對兩家公司產生積極影響，無論是 Ternium 還是 Usiminas，還是兩家公司。當然，在管理實踐上，與板坯的互補。我的意思是，很明顯，Cubatao 和 Ternium Brazil 非常接近，共同努力採購——我的意思是，將兩家公司的購買力放在一起應該會產生兩家公司的協同效應。

And also, I think the customers are going to see Usiminas as they are same -- at least industrial customers are the same in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, our shipments in U.S. also. I mean, they see our involvement in Usiminas as making Usiminas a little bit stronger. So, I think there's a lot of synergies with the way it is. So, that's the first question.

而且，我認為客戶會看到烏西米納斯，因為它們是一樣的——至少阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥的工業客戶是一樣的，我們在美國的發貨也是一樣的。我的意思是，他們認為我們參與烏西米納斯會讓烏西米納斯變得更強大。所以，我認為現有的方式有很多協同作用。這是第一個問題。

Prices in North America -- clearly, the volatility is there. Prices went up first quarter, went down second quarter. Now, went a little bit up. Today, I think they went $5 down. So, volatility is there, but I think that the range of prices, it's around today, $950.

北美的價格——顯然，波動是存在的。一季度價格上漲，二季度價格下跌。現在，上漲了一點。今天，我認為他們下跌了 5 美元。所以，波動是存在的，但我認為價格範圍目前約為 950 美元。

But as I said, I think there's a new level of prices in the U.S. or in the North American market that is around these [$900s]. And I think it's going to stay around there. The volatility is going [still] be. And I think we are going to have [steel] volatility in the next couple of quarters, but I think it's going to be around over there.

但正如我所說，我認為美國或北美市場的價格達到了新水平，約為 [900 美元]。我認為它會留在那裡。波動性仍然會存在。我認為未來幾個季度我們將出現[鋼鐵]波動，但我認為它會持續存在。

Why I said this, the demand is very strong. We see it in Mexico, and we are also seeing it in the U.S. I think demand is strong. Clearly, imports are taking a share in the U.S. market. But again, that share should be not that big that enables the U.S. mills to maintain a certain level of pricing.

為什麼我這麼說呢，這個需求是非常強烈的。我們在墨西哥看到了這種情況，在美國也看到了這種情況。我認為需求很強勁。顯然，進口產品正在佔據美國市場的份額。但同樣，該份額不應大到使美國鋼廠能夠維持一定的定價水平。

I mean -- 6 months ago we were a little bit more worried about the recession, and we talk about recession in this conference call, everybody was talking. I think that risk for the last -- for the next 6 months -- I really think that it's not much of a risk today. It's been lowered. And so, I think it should stay around there, the prices. I hope I make my point with this, Leo.

我的意思是——六個月前，我們對經濟衰退更加擔心，我們在這次電話會議上談論了經濟衰退，每個人都在談論。我認為最後的風險——接下來的六個月——我真的認為今天的風險並不大。已經降下來了因此，我認為價格應該保持不變。我希望我能表達我的觀點，利奧。

(Operator Instructions). Your next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）。您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Just a follow-up on the working capital. On working capital, so you consume a lot of cash this quarter. I think, Pablo, you mentioned that you don't expect that to continue in the coming quarters, but can you maybe give a little bit more color on the different moving pieces and maybe a range or a level of magnitude of the improvement on cash flow generation from working capital?

只是營運資金的後續行動。在營運資金上，所以這個季度你消耗了大量的現金。我想，巴勃羅，你提到你預計這種情況不會在未來幾個季度繼續下去，但你能否對不同的移動部分提供更多的信息，以及現金改善的範圍或程度流動資金來自營運資金？

Let me start with -- let me start answering, and then I give it to Pablo. But one of the things that happened is that we increased our stocks particularly in Mexico. And that takes -- I think it's like 75% or 80% of the $600 million was increasing in the stock.

讓我開始——讓我開始回答，然後我把它交給巴勃羅。但發生的事情之一是我們增加了庫存，特別是在墨西哥。這需要——我認為這 6 億美元中的 75% 或 80% 都在增加股票。

These have 2 things. First, if you remember, we generate a lot of cash from working capital in the last 2 quarters. I mean, in fourth quarter of last year and first quarter of this year, I think generation was like $1.2 billion. So, it's very natural that we were increasing shipments, prices are increasing, so working capital have to come up.

這些有兩件事。首先，如果你還記得的話，我們在過去兩個季度從營運資金中產生了大量現金。我的意思是，去年第四季度和今年第一季度，我認為發電量約為 12 億美元。因此，我們增加出貨量、價格上漲是很自然的，所以營運資金必須增加。

And again, this supply chain restrictions, we suffer it very much of not having enough stock and supplying to our customers in Mexico. So, that's the main reason why it went up that much, which we were not maybe expecting that much number, but we were expecting a high number of working capital.

再說一遍，由於供應鏈的限制，我們因沒有足夠的庫存和供應給墨西哥的客戶而深受其害。所以，這就是它上漲這麼多的主要原因，我們可能沒有預料到會有這麼多數字，但我們預計會有大量的營運資金。

Now for the future, Pablo?

現在是為了未來嗎，巴勃羅？

Yes. Let me add to that, that looking forward, first, we think that we have now the level of inventories that we need for the expectation of shipments in the coming quarter. And now, we should be seeing movements in working capital more in line with the normal issues that affect working capital increases in volumes, movement in prices and these type of things.

是的。讓我補充一點，展望未來，首先，我們認為我們現在的庫存水平足以滿足下一季度的發貨預期。現在，我們應該看到營運資本的變動與影響營運資本數量增加、價格變動等的正常問題更加一致。

So, that's why, as we said at the very beginning, we are not expecting to see a significant movement in working capital in the coming quarter. So, more in line with the normal change of working capital and significantly lower than what we saw, the absolute number significantly lower than what we showed you in this second quarter.

因此，正如我們一開始所說，我們預計下一季度營運資本不會出現重大變動。因此，更符合營運資金的正常變化，並且顯著低於我們所看到的，絕對數字顯著低於我們在第二季度向您展示的數字。

Sorry, just to -- so this is a great quarter. Just to clarify, it's not necessarily that you are going to generate cash from lower working capital?

抱歉，這是一個很棒的季度。只是澄清一下，您不一定會從較低的營運資本中產生現金？

No.

不。

It's just that it's going to go back to more traditional normal drivers and changes, right?

只是它會回到更傳統的正常驅動程序和變化，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think that we are going to see a generation of working cash from working capital in the next quarter. It's going to be up or down a little bit, but we are not seeing -- we are now at a level that is reasonable for the level of shipments that we have.

我認為我們不會在下個季度看到來自營運資金的一代營運現金。它會略有上升或下降，但我們沒有看到——我們現在的水平對於我們的出貨量水平來說是合理的。

Your next question is from the line of Jon Brandt with HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Jon Brandt。

Just 2 quick ones for me. The first is just on nearshoring. I know there's -- you said that there's lots of investment going into Northern Mexico. I'm wondering if you can try and quantify that somehow? How much are you actually seeing -- I mean, have you had negotiations with customers, particularly the auto customers, about their likely need for increased steel demands? I mean, we've seen Tesla and GM and a whole host of other auto producers announcing plans. I mean -- so, could you just sort of help us clarify or quantify exactly what you're seeing from the nearshoring impact?

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。第一個是近岸外包。我知道您說過有大量投資進入北墨西哥。我想知道你是否可以嘗試以某種方式量化它？您實際上看到了多少——我的意思是，您是否與客戶（尤其是汽車客戶）就他們可能需要增加的鋼鐵需求進行了談判？我的意思是，我們已經看到特斯拉和通用汽車以及許多其他汽車生產商宣布了計劃。我的意思是——那麼，您能否幫助我們澄清或準確量化您從近岸影響中看到的情況？

And then the second question just relates to cash and that's trapped in Argentina. What is -- I think there's still a fair amount of cash there. So, if you could help us understand what are the plans for that given there's not a whole lot of investment going into Argentina? It's still relatively free cash flow positive. Is the plan just to keep it there? Do you expect to dividend it out back to Ternium Inc., or sort of what should we expect with that cash flow?

第二個問題與現金有關，而現金被困在阿根廷。我認為那裡仍然有相當數量的現金。那麼，鑑於阿根廷沒有大量投資，您能否幫助我們了解這方面的計劃是什麼？它仍然是相對自由的正現金流。計劃只是將其保留在那裡嗎？您是否希望將其分紅給 Ternium Inc.，或者我們應該對這筆現金流有何期望？

I'll try to answer the first question, though it's a little bit difficult to answer it. I mean they -- part of nearshoring -- I mean, I cannot put it today in a number, to be honest. We are seeing a lot of customers investing in new lines and we are seeing customers that are coming to Mexico. Probably not right now in the big automotive industry, but more in the auto parts, I mean, small customers that are bringing production from overseas to Mexico that consumes steel.

我將嘗試回答第一個問題，儘管回答起來有點困難。我的意思是它們——近岸外包的一部分——我的意思是，老實說，我今天無法用數字來表示。我們看到很多客戶投資新生產線，並且我們看到客戶正在來到墨西哥。現在可能還不是在大型汽車行業，但更多的是在汽車零部件領域，我的意思是，將生產從海外轉移到消耗鋼鐵的墨西哥的小客戶。

We are seeing in white-goods, we are seeing in HVAC, we are seeing in electric motors, we are seeing a lot of different industries or segments that people are increasing capacity or in white-goods, for example, that they are putting new plants. Those are the ones that we are seeing today increasing our shipments.

我們在白色家電中看到，在暖通空調中看到，在電動機中看到，我們在許多不同的行業或細分市場中看到人們正在增加產能，或者在白色家電中，例如，他們正在投入新的植物。這些就是我們今天看到的出貨量增加的產品。

Of course, in a couple of years, there are some automotive -- like Tesla is coming to Monterrey, as you know. Kia is announcing that it's -- I don't know if it's doubling or not the capacity, but somehow, they are announcing a huge investment right beside our plant in Pesqueria. So, those are things that we are going to see, but in a couple of years.

當然，幾年後，會有一些汽車公司——比如特斯拉，如你所知，將來到蒙特雷。起亞宣布，我不知道產能是否翻倍，但不知何故，他們宣佈在我們位於佩斯克里亞的工廠旁邊進行巨額投資。所以，這些是我們將在幾年內看到的事情。

Today, we are seeing a lot of small or medium-sized companies, some of them the suppliers of the automotive industry, some of them in other industries that are increasing or coming for the first time to Mexico. And that's the increase in the consumption because, when you see even the increase in consumption in Mexico, although Mexico is not growing -- as a general, most of that increase comes from flat industries or flat products, which is a reflection of consumption in industry and does not come from long products. So, I mean, again, difficult to put a number, but most of our customers are increasing to [have] their consumption. I hope I answered that first part, Jon.

今天，我們看到很多中小企業，其中一些是汽車行業的供應商，一些是其他行業的供應商，它們正在增加或首次來到墨西哥。這就是消費的增長，因為當你看到墨西哥的消費增長時，儘管墨西哥並沒有增長——總體而言，大部分增長來自扁平工業或扁平產品，這反映了墨西哥的消費工業，並非來自長材。所以，我的意思是，很難給出一個數字，但我們的大多數客戶都在增加他們的消費。我希望我回答了第一部分，喬恩。

So, let me take this one, the cash situation in Argentina. Clearly, you're right. We have a cash position in Argentina -- a significant cash position in Argentina, which is first of all, a reflection of the reality of our business in Argentina that keeps generating positive results.

那麼，讓我來談談阿根廷的現金狀況。顯然，你是對的。我們在阿根廷擁有現金頭寸——在阿根廷擁有大量現金頭寸，這首先反映了我們在阿根廷的業務不斷產生積極成果的現實。

So, the way we have been dealing with that is in 2 different perspectives. One is paying dividend. So, we have paid dividends, last year, $300 million, this year, $600 million. So the idea is to continue to do that. But as you know, there are certain restrictions in the regulations, and the regulations of Argentina, unfortunately, are changed quite rapidly. So, there are certain restrictions for us to do a dividend payment again during this year. So, we need to wait under the current restrictions in Argentina until next year to do that.

因此，我們從兩個不同的角度來處理這個問題。一是支付股息。所以，我們去年支付了3億美元的股息，今年支付了6億美元。所以我們的想法是繼續這樣做。但如您所知，法規中有一定的限制，不幸的是，阿根廷的法規變化得相當快。所以，我們今年再次派發股息是有一定限制的。因此，我們需要在阿根廷目前的限制下等到明年才能做到這一點。

In the meantime, the other thing that we do is try to protect the cash that we have in Argentina against any fluctuation on the price of the dollar or the devaluation of the currency in Argentina. Of course, there is not a perfect mechanism to do that, but this is something that we are continually trying to get the best strategy possible to -- first, to sustain the value of the cash that we have in Argentina. In the meantime, in which we can distribute at least part of that as we have done during this year and during last year. I don't know if that was clear, but…

與此同時，我們做的另一件事是努力保護我們在阿根廷擁有的現金免受美元價格波動或阿根廷貨幣貶值的影響。當然，沒有一個完美的機制可以做到這一點，但我們一直在努力尋求最佳策略——首先，維持我們在阿根廷擁有的現金的價值。與此同時，我們可以像今年和去年所做的那樣至少分配其中的一部分。我不知道這是否清楚，但是……

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Timna Tanners 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

I just wanted to follow up actually on Argentina. If you could decipher a bit that comments there on stable demand, but negative impact in the near future from some of the government reforms? What exactly do you mean? Does that impact volumes, shipments or prices evaluation? What exactly are you trying to get out there? I'm sorry if I'm being (inaudible).

我只是想跟進阿根廷的實際情況。您是否能解讀一下其中關於穩定需求的評論，但在不久的將來會受到一些政府改革的負面影響？你到底什麼意思？這會影響銷量、發貨量或價格評估嗎？你到底想出去做什麼？如果我是（聽不清），我很抱歉。

I mean, we have been repeating this for the last, I think, several quarters, because every quarter, we -- I mean macroeconomics in Argentina is not doing very well. I mean we have more than 100% of inflation. The Central Bank has no dollars or anything. There is some restriction to imports of different things, even imports of some raw materials. In some of our customers, we don't have problems yet, but we don't know if we are not going to have it in the future.

我的意思是，我認為過去幾個季度我們一直在重複這一點，因為每個季度，我們——我的意思是阿根廷的宏觀經濟表現不佳。我的意思是我們的通貨膨脹率超過 100%。中央銀行沒有美元或任何東西。對不同物品的進口有一些限制，甚至某些原材料的進口。在我們的一些客戶中，我們還沒有遇到問題，但我們不知道將來是否不會出現問題。

So, Argentina is in an economic situation, it's very, very delicate. And to be honest, we were expecting change in this and a decrease in consumption of steel of everything for quite several quarters now. This has not come. And then for the last, I think 2.5 years, shipments have been very, very stable which are not -- I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense as how Argentina economic is doing. Now, there's going to be elections and the situation is decreasing, let's put it that way. So, at some point, our shipments should be -- should decrease at least, I think, in the fourth quarter now.

所以，阿根廷的經濟形勢非常非常微妙。老實說，我們預計這會發生變化，並且在接下來的幾個季度裡，所有鋼材的消耗都會減少。這還沒來。然後在過去的 2.5 年裡，出貨量一直非常非常穩定，但我的意思是，這與阿根廷經濟的表現沒有多大意義。現在，即將舉行選舉，局勢正在惡化，這麼說吧。因此，在某些時候，我認為，我們的出貨量應該至少在第四季度有所下降。

Let me -- Maximo, a little bit to that. In our history, for many years, of course, in Argentina -- this is usually what you see when you have an adjustment in the macro situation either through a revaluation, through different type of mechanism that the macro -- just in Argentina, you see that initially when you have this adjustment, you will see an impact in your shipments, in your volumes. But usually, they recover relatively soon if the plan implemented is a positive one. So, that's why what we are trying to say is that if there is a correction adjustment, the initial reaction of the market will reduce volume to then recover to the (technical difficulty). We will deliver, but this is usually what's happening in Argentina with this type of transitions. I hope that you know a little bit -- sorry?

讓我——馬克西莫，稍微說一下。當然，在我們的歷史上，多年來，在阿根廷——這通常是你在宏觀形勢進行調整時看到的，或者通過重估，通過不同類型的宏觀機制——就在阿根廷，你可以看到這種情況。請注意，最初當您進行此調整時，您將看到您的發貨量和數量受到影響。但通常情況下，如果實施的計劃是積極的，他們就會相對較快地恢復。所以，這就是為什麼我們想說的是，如果出現回調調整，市場最初的反應是成交量減少，然後恢復到（技術難度）。我們會兌現承諾，但這通常是阿根廷發生此類轉變的情況。我希望你知道一點——抱歉？

So, you're talking about shipments then for the most part with that kind of commentary?

那麼，您在談論的大部分內容都是這樣的評論嗎？

Yes. For the most part, it's shipments. Shipments and demand in Argentina. Yes.

是的。大部分情況下，都是發貨。阿根廷的出貨量和需求。是的。

And then I promise my last one. But the comments on the greater production from Mexico makes a lot of sense. We know you're capable and all that. Just wondering if and when we see USMCA restart, assuming that happens, would you expect to be able to maintain those levels or do you think that some of that is to displace just because of the displacement of tons?

然後我保證我的最後一個。但關於墨西哥產量增加的評論很有道理。我們知道你有能力等等。只是想知道我們是否以及何時看到 USMCA 重新啟動，假設發生這種情況，您是否期望能夠維持這些水平，或者您是否認為其中一些只是因為噸位的位移而發生位移？

That's a good question, Timna. Everyone is having good question. But I don't have a great answer for that. I mean, clearly, some of the market share, we are gaining [in] UMSCA, that's for sure. Nevertheless, again, there's a lot of imports and we think we are more than capable of fighting those imports if we have the volume or the production.

這是個好問題，蒂姆納。每個人都有很好的問題。但我對此沒有一個很好的答案。我的意思是，很明顯，我們正在 UMSCA 中獲得一些市場份額，這是肯定的。儘管如此，還是有大量的進口產品，我們認為，如果我們有足夠的數量或產量，我們完全有能力對抗這些進口產品。

But the other thing that you have to take into account, Timna, is that USMCA -- it's very difficult that USMCA come back at the level of production that they have when they stopped. I mean, USMCA was producing, I don't know, between 300,000 and 350,000 tons a month. I mean, being shut down for several months, and again, using only the information that is available in the public or in the press, it's very difficult that USMCA will come back to that number in the near future.

但蒂姆納，你必須考慮的另一件事是 USMCA——USMCA 很難恢復到停止時的生產水平。我的意思是，我不知道，USMCA 每月的產量在 30 萬噸到 35 萬噸之間。我的意思是，由於被關閉了幾個月，並且僅使用公眾或媒體上提供的信息，USMCA 很難在不久的將來恢復到這個數字。

You know that yesterday or 2 days ago, they informed that they were shutting down the coke batteries. That's something that you can fix in 2 or 3 years. So, I mean, we don't see UMSCA increasing a lot in the next quarters.

你知道昨天或者兩天前，他們通知要關閉焦炭電池。這是你可以在兩三年內解決的問題。所以，我的意思是，我們認為 UMSCA 在接下來的幾個季度不會出現大幅增長。

Just one thing there. When you refer to shipments of 300,000 tons, that was what they used to have.

只有一件事。當你提到30萬噸的出貨量時，那是他們以前的水平。

Yes.

是的。

The month prior to shutting completely, that number was a little over 100,000 ton, around that number. So, even if they return to the lowest number…

完全關閉前一個月，這個數字略高於 10 萬噸，大約是這個數字。所以，即使他們回到最低的數字……

Exactly.

確切地。

they were producing is not a significant amount of tonnage back to the market, and also take it to (inaudible) as Maximo say that it will take -- even if they decide to come back to production, it will take some time to reach a certain level of production.

他們生產的噸位並沒有大量回到市場，並且也將其帶回（聽不清），正如馬克西莫所說，這將需要 - 即使他們決定恢復生產，也需要一些時間才能達到一定的生產水平。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Terniums' CEO for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在，我將把電話轉回給 Terniums 首席執行官，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, and thank you very much all for participating in today conference. Very good questions. We are very glad we can answer. I hope we can answer all of them. And as always, feel free to contact us with any additional comments or any questions. If not, we'll see you or we'll talk with you in the next conference call. Thank you very much to all.

謝謝大家，也非常感謝大家參加今天的會議。非常好的問題。我們很高興能夠回答。我希望我們能夠回答所有這些問題。與往常一樣，如有任何其他意見或問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。如果沒有，我們會再見或在下次電話會議中與您交談。非常感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。