Ternium SA (TX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ternium Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Ternium 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Sebastian Marti, you may begin your conference.

Sebastian Marti，你可以開始你的會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Marti, and I am Ternium's Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。我叫 Sebastian Marti，是 Ternium 的全球投資者關係和合規高級總監。

Ternium released today its financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022. This call is complementary to that presentation. Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, Maximo Vedoya; and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

Ternium 今天發布了其 2022 年第三季度和前九個月的財務業績。本次電話會議是對該報告的補充。今天加入我的是 Ternium 的首席執行官 Maximo Vedoya；以及公司的首席財務官 Pablo Brizzio，他將討論 Ternium 的商業環境和業績。在我們準備好的發言結束時，將有一個問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued this morning.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議包含前瞻性信息，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有所不同。可能影響結果的因素包含在我們向證券交易委員會提交的文件中以及今天網絡廣播演示的第 2 頁中。您還可以在今天上午發布的新聞稿中找到與最直接可比的 IFRS 措施一致的非 IFRS 財務措施的任何參考。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Vedoya 先生。

Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning, and thank you all for participating in our conference call today. Ternium reported a good set of results for the third quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $679 million on a margin of more than $200 per ton. This is equivalent to adjusted EBITDA margin of 16% of sales, a level that is within Ternium's historical margin range. On top of this, we had a very strong cash generation in the quarter. Cash from operations was more than $1 billion, aided by a significant working capital release.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。早上好，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。 Ternium 報告了第三季度的一系列良好業績，調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.79 億美元，利潤率超過每噸 200 美元。這相當於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為銷售額的 16%，處於 Ternium 歷史利潤率範圍內的水平。最重要的是，我們在本季度產生了非常強勁的現金。在大量營運資金釋放的幫助下，運營現金超過 10 億美元。

Last year, we transitioned from -- with an advance in November and a final payment in May. I believe this change in our dividend payment schedule was a positive development that underscores our long-term commitment to the return to our shareholders. In this line, Ternium's Board of Directors announced today an interim dividend payment of $0.90 per ADS, equivalent to $177 million that will be paid on November 17. This represents an increase of $0.10 per ADS compared to last year interim dividend payment.

去年，我們從 11 月的預付款和 5 月的最終付款過渡。我相信我們股息支付時間表的這種變化是一個積極的發展，強調了我們對股東回報的長期承諾。在這方面，Ternium 董事會今天宣布每 ADS 支付 0.90 美元的中期股息，相當於將於 11 月 17 日支付的 1.77 億美元。與去年的中期股息支付相比，這意味著每 ADS 增加了 0.10 美元。

Looking ahead, we are facing a complex global economic situation with uncertainty driven by policy and geopolitics like monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine and China's economic slowdown. Rise in interest rates, combined with high inflation, are undermining economic confidence and slowing down investment as well as household spending.

展望未來，我們面臨著複雜的全球經濟形勢，貨幣緊縮、烏克蘭戰爭和中國經濟放緩等政策和地緣政治帶來不確定性。利率上升，加上高通脹，正在削弱經濟信心，減緩投資和家庭支出。

Focusing on the U.S., according to the World Steel Association short-term outlook that was just released, steel demand is not expected to get into negative territory despite a softening economy. Construction activity in the private sector will decrease due to a downturn in the housing market. But balancing this, the non-residential sector is still strong and an increase in infrastructure investments due to the infrastructure law and rising investment in the energy sector will support growth in steel demand. In addition, the automotive sector is expected to maintain a positive momentum on the back of pent-up demand and the gradual easing of supply chain constraints.

以美國為中心，根據剛剛發布的世界鋼鐵協會短期展望，儘管經濟疲軟，但預計鋼鐵需求不會進入負值區域。由於房地產市場低迷，私營部門的建築活動將減少。但平衡這一點，非住宅部門仍然強勁，由於基礎設施法和能源部門投資增加而增加的基礎設施投資將支持鋼鐵需求的增長。此外，在被壓抑的需求和供應鏈約束逐步放鬆的背景下，預計汽車行業將保持積極勢頭。

In Mexico, our expectations are very similar to those in the U.S. as both markets are very related. The construction sector recovery has been slow. And as a result, activity in this sector is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2023. In addition, the manufacturing sector, which has performed better since the pandemic, also faces a weakening output in relative industries like household appliances and small HVAC. On the other hand, like in the [EWS] the automotive sector will still see growth, thanks to an easing of supply constraints.

在墨西哥，我們的預期與美國非常相似，因為這兩個市場都非常相關。建築業復甦緩慢。因此，該行業的活動預計將在 2023 年保持在大流行前水平以下。此外，自大流行以來表現較好的製造業也面臨家用電器和小型暖通空調等相關行業的產出疲軟.另一方面，與 [EWS] 一樣，由於供應限制有所緩解，汽車行業仍將出現增長。

It is worth noting that even though our PBT in the North American region is slowing down, we are not expecting internal shipments in Mexico to decline. There are several forces at work that should help us sustain and probably increase our shipments in the market during 2023. Nearshoring of manufacturing capacity is a development that is gaining momentum as we speak. There has been a spike in investment announcements for new manufacturing capacity in the north of Mexico, the majority of which has been made by companies that are new to the region. As a result of this, construction activity related to industrial facilities has been strongly increasing there. In the future, many of these new facilities will also turn into steel consuming customers for us.

值得注意的是，儘管我們在北美地區的 PBT 正在放緩，但我們預計墨西哥的內部出貨量不會下降。有幾種力量在起作用，可以幫助我們在 2023 年維持並可能增加我們在市場上的出貨量。在我們所說的時候，製造能力的近岸化是一個正在獲得動力的發展。墨西哥北部新製造能力的投資公告激增，其中大部分是由該地區的新公司進行的。因此，與工業設施相關的建設活動一直在大力增加。未來，這些新設施中的許多也將成為我們的鋼鐵消費客戶。

Another aspect of our activity in Mexico is our progress with the certification of new products as we advance with the ramp-up of the new hot strip mill in Pesqueria. The capabilities provided by our new R&D center in this facility are significantly speeding up the certification of new products. This has enabled us to broaden our product range. And as a result, we are booking new supply contracts for 2023 that will help us grow our shipments gradually throughout next year. Over the last 10 years, we have invested in our facility to expand and enhance our product offering. This new capacity puts us in a unique competitive position in the Mexican market to take advantage of these new opportunities, enable Ternium to increase its market share against imports and other local producers.

我們在墨西哥活動的另一個方面是我們在新產品認證方面取得的進展，因為我們在 Pesqueria 新建熱軋帶鋼廠的產能增加。我們在該設施中的新研發中心提供的能力正在顯著加快新產品的認證。這使我們能夠擴大我們的產品範圍。因此，我們正在預訂 2023 年的新供應合同，這將幫助我們在明年逐步增加出貨量。在過去的 10 年中，我們對我們的設施進行了投資，以擴大和增強我們的產品供應。這種新產能使我們在墨西哥市場處於獨特的競爭地位，以利用這些新機會，使 Ternium 能夠增加其與進口和其他當地生產商相比的市場份額。

Turning now to Argentina. Steel demand remained stable as it has been for more than a year now. The construction sector is healthy and industries like household appliances, automotive and energy are working at good levels. Although we expect stable shipments in this market for the fourth quarter, we need to continue making a warning regarding the unstable macro situation in the country.

現在轉向阿根廷。一年多來，鋼材需求保持穩定。建築業健康，家用電器、汽車和能源等行業運行良好。儘管我們預計第四季度該市場出貨量將保持穩定，但我們仍需繼續對該國不穩定的宏觀形勢發出警告。

Let me now share some thoughts on safety. Two weeks ago, one of our employees was fatally injured in our Rio de Janeiro facility in Brazil. We are deeply moved by this development, and our thoughts reside with his family and friends. We hadn't had a fatality in Ternium for more than four years. I traveled to Brazil right after I heard the news and worked with our team there to understand what happened. And we will continue investigating the causes of this strategic event. And we are set to learn from our findings.

現在讓我分享一些關於安全的想法。兩週前，我們的一名員工在我們位於巴西的里約熱內盧工廠受重傷。這一發展讓我們深受感動，我們的思緒與他的家人和朋友同在。四年多來，我們在 Ternium 沒有發生死亡事故。聽到這個消息後，我立即前往巴西，並與我們在那裡的團隊一起了解發生了什麼。我們將繼續調查這一戰略事件的原因。我們將從我們的發現中學習。

Let me now make a brief note about our mining activity in the South of Mexico and the effects of September's earthquake in our facility and surrounding communities. On September 19, there was a 7.7 intensity earthquake in Michoacan, which center was about 120 kilometers from our mining facilities. After the event, we had our tailing dams both from Ternium and Pena Colorada inspected twice by a third-party expert and their findings were that the dams are in perfect condition. Unfortunately, the situation was not the same for some of our surrounding communities where infrastructure was significantly affected. As a result, we have created a fund to help rebuild some schools and a medical clinic in these remote communities.

現在讓我簡要介紹一下我們在墨西哥南部的採礦活動以及 9 月地震對我們設施和周邊社區的影響。 9 月 19 日，米卻肯州發生了 7.7 級地震，震中距我們的採礦設施約 120 公里。活動結束後，第三方專家對我們來自 Ternium 和 Pena Colorada 的尾礦壩進行了兩次檢查，他們的發現是這些尾礦壩狀況良好。不幸的是，我們周邊一些基礎設施受到嚴重影響的社區的情況並不相同。因此，我們設立了一項基金來幫助在這些偏遠社區重建一些學校和一家醫療診所。

To wrap up my prepared remarks, I would like to say that we are positive regarding our shipment levels for the following quarters, even in a softening macroeconomic environmental, as the one expected. We are confident. Our efforts to increase Ternium competitiveness and expand its product range will help us sustain us -- will help us sustain and gradually increase shipments during 2023, mainly by substituting imports in Mexican market that serves the manufacturing sector.

最後，我想說的是，我們對接下來幾個季度的出貨量水平持樂觀態度，即使在宏觀經濟環境疲軟的情況下，正如預期的那樣。我們有信心。我們提高 Ternium 競爭力和擴大其產品範圍的努力將幫助我們維持我們——將幫助我們在 2023 年維持並逐步增加出貨量，主要是通過替代為製造業服務的墨西哥市場的進口。

With this, I'll let Pablo go ahead with the analysis of our results in the third quarter. Thank you very much.

有了這個，我將讓 Pablo 繼續分析我們在第三季度的結果。非常感謝。

Thanks, Maximo, and good morning to everybody, and thank you again for your participation today.

謝謝，Maximo，大家早上好，再次感謝您今天的參與。

Let's move to the webcast presentation to Page 3. And you will see that over the last few quarters, we have been our transition to a more sustainable level of profitability, as we have already expected. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was firm $679 million and a margin of $229 per ton or 16%. The sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was mainly the result of lower fuel prices and higher cost of sales.

讓我們轉到第 3 頁的網絡廣播演示。您會看到，在過去幾個季度中，我們一直在向更可持續的盈利水平過渡，正如我們已經預期的那樣。第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.79 億美元，利潤率為每噸 229 美元或 16%。第三季度調整後 EBITDA 環比下降主要是由於燃料價格下降和銷售成本上升。

As we anticipated in last quarter's call, EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter will continue to decline, reaching a level below the company's typical range before reversing this trend in the first quarter of 2023. As a restart of the first-in-first-out accounting, our financials in the fourth quarter will have a temporary mismatch between prices and cost, in a way reflecting a price level of one point in time with costs that happened way more in the past.

正如我們在上一季度的電話會議中預期的那樣，第四季度的 EBITDA 利潤率將繼續下降，達到低於公司典型範圍的水平，然後在 2023 年第一季度扭轉這一趨勢。作為先進先出的重啟會計上，我們在第四季度的財務狀況將在價格和成本之間出現暫時的不匹配，在某種程度上反映了一個時間點的價格水平與過去發生得更多的成本。

In the fourth quarter, steel prices under quarterly contracts in Mexico will reset at lower levels than they did in the third quarter, but cost per ton will not account -- will not go with that decrease. So it will continue to reflect the gradual flow through the company's inventories of relatively high-cost raw material, which were purchased during the first half of the year when Russia invasion of Ukraine disrupted steel markets. Raw material purchased more recently on lower price will be reflected in our cost per ton from the first quarter of 2023 and on.

在第四季度，墨西哥的季度合同鋼價將重新設定在低於第三季度的水平，但每噸成本不會考慮——不會隨著這種下降而下降。因此，這將繼續反映公司在上半年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭擾亂鋼鐵市場時購買的相對高成本原材料庫存的逐步流動。從 2023 年第一季度起，最近以較低價格購買的原材料將反映在我們的每噸成本中。

Net income in the third quarter fell to $220 million, equivalent to earnings per ADS of $0.78. This includes a $0.57 per ADS loss related to a write-down of Ternium's investment in Usiminas. We pair our investment in Usiminas after the performance of an impairment test at the end of September. The main changes to the company's previous estimation of Usiminas value-in-use, which led to this impairment were related to the lower production availability of Usiminas coal facilities, which need further capital investments along with the current global macroeconomic situation. Net income in the third quarter was affected by the loss of $95 million due to the adjustment of the fair value of certain Argentine securities collected by Ternium as dividend in kind from its subsidiary, Ternium Argentina.

第三季度的淨收入下降至 2.2 億美元，相當於每股美國存託憑證的收益 0.78 美元。這包括與 Ternium 在 Usiminas 的投資減記相關的每 ADS 損失 0.57 美元。在 9 月底進行減值測試後，我們對 Usiminas 的投資進行配對。導致該減值的公司先前對 Usiminas 使用價值估計的主要變化與 Usiminas 煤炭設施的生產可用性較低有關，隨著當前的全球宏觀經濟形勢，這些設施需要進一步的資本投資。由於調整了 Ternium 從其子公司 Ternium Argentina 收取的作為實物股息的某些阿根廷證券的公允價值，第三季度的淨收入受到損失 9500 萬美元的影響。

Turning now to Page 4 in the presentation. You can see that steel shipments increased in Mexico in the third quarter of this year compared to the second quarter and on a year-over-year basis, reaching 1.7 million tons. Looking forward, shipments in Mexico are expected to increase slightly again in the fourth quarter despite a seasonal year end slowdown in demand as a result of an improvement in Ternium's market share in the region and restocking in the commercial steel market.

現在轉到演示文稿的第 4 頁。您可以看到，今年第三季度墨西哥的鋼鐵出貨量與第二季度相比和同比增長，達到 170 萬噸。展望未來，儘管由於 Ternium 在該地區的市場份額提高和商業鋼材市場的補貨，需求在年末季節性放緩，但預計第四季度墨西哥的出貨量將再次小幅增長。

In the southern regional, shipments decreased slightly sequentially. In Argentina, demand for steel products remains relatively stable, but the macro situation, as already mentioned by Maximo, continues to be quite uncertain. Shipments in the other market region in the third quarter was slightly below the level achieved in the second quarter. As you can see in the top right chart, the volume of slabs shipped to third-parties remain at relatively low levels in the period, reflecting a high level of integration of Ternium's slab facility in Brazil within the company's industrial systems.

在南部地區，出貨量環比略有下降。在阿根廷，對鋼鐵產品的需求保持相對穩定，但正如 Maximo 已經提到的，宏觀形勢仍然相當不確定。第三季度其他市場區域的出貨量略低於第二季度的水平。正如您在右上角的圖表中看到的那樣，在此期間向第三方運送的板坯數量仍處於相對較低的水平，這反映了 Ternium 在巴西的板坯設施在公司工業系統中的高度整合。

Turning now to Page 5. You can see that on a consolidated basis, Ternium's steel shipments were 3 million tons in the third quarter, very similar to the volume achieved in the previous two quarters. Compared to the third quarter of last year, consolidated steel shipments decreased in the third quarter, reflecting a decrease in the volume of slabs shipped to third-parties, partially offset by higher finished steel shipments.

現在轉到第 5 頁。您可以看到，在合併的基礎上，Ternium 第三季度的鋼鐵出貨量為 300 萬噸，與前兩個季度的出貨量非常相似。與去年第三季度相比，第三季度綜合鋼材出貨量下降，反映出向第三方發運的板坯數量減少，部分被成品鋼材出貨量增加所抵消。

Moving to realized steel prices. Revenue per ton in the third quarter declined sequentially and on a year-over-year basis, as expected. Realized steel prices decrease in Mexico or revenue per ton in this period reflected the quarterly reset of contract prices at lower levels and a downward trend in the market prices. As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate a further decrease in steel prices in Mexico in the fourth quarter as contract price continues to reset at lower levels, reflecting the downward trend of steel market prices over the last six months through September.

轉向已實現的鋼材價格。正如預期的那樣，第三季度每噸收入環比和同比下降。墨西哥實現的鋼材價格或每噸收入在此期間下降，反映了合同價格的季度重新調整在較低水平和市場價格的下降趨勢。正如我之前提到的，我們預計第四季度墨西哥的鋼材價格將進一步下跌，因為合同價格繼續處於較低水平，反映了截至 9 月的過去六個月中鋼鐵市場價格的下降趨勢。

Now on Page 6, let's review the main drivers we had the decrease of adjusted EBITDA and the net income in the third quarter. The sequential decrease was mainly due to the result of lower realized steel prices in Mexico, as already discussed, and higher steel costs in all sectors. The increase in cost in the third quarter reflected the gradual flow through inventories of high-priced steel slabs and raw material purchased during the first part of the year.

現在在第 6 頁，讓我們回顧一下第三季度調整後 EBITDA 和淨收入下降的主要驅動因素。如前所述，環比下降主要是由於墨西哥實現的鋼鐵價格較低，以及所有行業的鋼鐵成本較高。三季度成本上升反映了上半年採購的高價鋼板和原材料庫存的逐步流轉。

Regarding net income, at the bottom chart, we have the sequential decrease in operating income, and to a lesser extent, the two items I mentioned at the beginning of the call, a $120 million impairment of our investment in Usiminas and a $95 million decrease in the fair value of securities received as a lenient income from Ternium Argentina.

關於淨收入，在底部的圖表中，我們的營業收入連續下降，在較小程度上，我在電話會議開始時提到的兩項，我們在 Usiminas 的投資減值 1.2 億美元和減少了 9500 萬美元作為從 Ternium Argentina 獲得的寬鬆收入的證券的公允價值。

Let's now review the performance of our cash flow on balance sheet in Page 7. Cash flow from operations in the third quarter was $1 billion, including a working capital release of $548 million. Free cash flow in the third quarter of the year was almost $900 million after CapEx of $136 million that drove our net cash position to $1.8 billion by the end of September.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們在第 7 頁的資產負債表上的現金流表現。第三季度的運營現金流為 10 億美元，其中包括 5.48 億美元的營運資金釋放。在資本支出為 1.36 億美元之後，今年第三季度的自由現金流接近 9 億美元，這使我們的淨現金頭寸在 9 月底達到 18 億美元。

To finalize the presentation, let's review in Page 8, our cash flow performance on a year-on-year basis. Cash from operations in the first nine months of 2022 was $1.7 billion, slightly above the level achieved in the prior year same period. Looking forward, we expect Ternium will continue generating significant cash in the fourth quarter based on the CapEx estimated for the year of close to $600 million and further working capital release after significant working capital investment last year, as you can see in the top-right chart.

為了最終確定演示文稿，讓我們在第 8 頁中回顧一下我們的現金流同比表現。 2022 年前九個月的運營現金為 17 億美元，略高於去年同期的水平。展望未來，我們預計 Ternium 將在第四季度繼續產生大量現金，根據估計的接近 6 億美元的年度資本支出和去年大量營運資金投資後的進一步營運資金釋放，如右上角所示圖表。

Moving to the chart of dividends in the bottom of the page. We can see the $0.90 per ADS interim dividend that the Board of Directors announced early today. As already mentioned, 10% -- $0.10 per ADS higher than the interim dividend paid last year. We expect Ternium's Board of Directors to announce the yearly dividend corresponding to 2022 in February 2023 when they need to review the annual accounts. Looking forward, the company will continue striving to sustain, and if possible, improve shareholders' return.

轉到頁面底部的股息圖表。我們可以看到董事會今天早些時候宣布的每股 ADS 中期股息 0.90 美元。如前所述，比去年支付的中期股息高 10%——每 ADS 0.10 美元。我們預計 Ternium 的董事會將在 2023 年 2 月需要審查年度賬目時公佈對應於 2022 年的年度股息。展望未來，公司將繼續努力維持並儘可能提高股東回報。

I will stop here so that we can start taking your questions. Thank you very much for your time and attention. Please, operator, let's proceed with the Q&A session.

我將在這裡停下來，以便我們開始回答您的問題。非常感謝您的時間和關注。請接線員，讓我們繼續進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Caio Greiner with BTG Pactual.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Caio Greiner。

Two questions here. So the first one on your working capital release. So in 2021, you guys had $2.6 billion in working capital investment, that's from your presentation. And so far, you only reversed to a small part of that. And so my question is, are you guys expected to continue posting positive contributions from working capital in the next quarters? I mean, should we expect a full reversion of those $2.6 billion ahead or did something change that might lead you guys to claim only a part of that or even ahead of that going forward?

這裡有兩個問題。因此，您的營運資金釋放的第一個。所以在 2021 年，你們有 26 億美元的營運資金投資，這來自你們的介紹。到目前為止，你只扭轉了一小部分。所以我的問題是，你們是否有望在接下來的幾個季度繼續從營運資本中獲得積極的貢獻？我的意思是，我們是否應該期待這 26 億美元的完全恢復，還是做出一些改變，可能導致你們只要求其中的一部分，甚至在未來的那一步之前？

And my second question here on capital allocation. So I know that's pretty much the same question we have been asking for a while. But the truth is that free cash flow generation continues to be very robust, maybe even more than expected a while ago, and you guys continue to pile up cash, I mean, $1.8 billion already in net cash. So my question is, what can you guys do in the short-term? I mean, even with the projects that you guys have already announced, that you guys are expected to announce going forward, I mean, the CapEx outflow is only -- is supposed to take a few years. It's only -- it's going to outflow in quite some time. And you guys could be -- and you guys going forward, I mean, can you even finance that with free cash flow generation even if the first part of my question is true with working capital being reversed? So if that happens, free cash flow generation is still going to continue to be strong, it's still going to continue to be robust. So I mean, despite dividends rising, it won't materially change that.

我的第二個問題是關於資本配置的。所以我知道這與我們一段時間以來一直在問的問題幾乎相同。但事實是，自由現金流的產生仍然非常強勁，甚至可能超過前一段時間的預期，你們繼續積累現金，我的意思是，已經有 18 億美元的淨現金。所以我的問題是，你們在短期內能做什麼？我的意思是，即使你們已經宣布了這些項目，預計你們將在未來宣布，我的意思是，資本支出外流只是 - 應該需要幾年時間。只是——它會在相當長的一段時間內流出。你們可能是——你們繼續前進，我的意思是，即使我的問題的第一部分是真實的，營運資金被逆轉，你們甚至可以通過產生自由現金流來融資嗎？因此，如果發生這種情況，自由現金流的產生仍將繼續強勁，仍將繼續強勁。所以我的意思是，儘管股息上升，但它不會實質性地改變這一點。

So the question is, what can you guys do in the short-term in order to deal with that amount of net cash that you guys have been piling up? I mean, can you guys announce a buyback, I mean, extraordinary dividend? I know you guys have mentioned in the past that it's not really an option that the board is favorable of, maybe an M&A that you guys have been analyzing? So what can you guys do regarding that?

所以問題是，你們在短期內能做些什麼來處理你們積累的大量淨現金？我的意思是，你們能宣布回購，我的意思是，特別股息嗎？我知道你們過去曾提到，這不是董事會真正喜歡的選擇，也許是你們一直在分析的併購？那麼你們能做些什麼呢？

I would let Pablo answer the first question and then I'll try to answer the second one.

我會讓 Pablo 回答第一個問題，然後我會嘗試回答第二個問題。

You are very right. We have generated, because of the significant increase in prices of different raw materials, a significant level on working capital that we have started to reduce. As you mentioned, it's not the full amount that we have already reduced, but as I mentioned in our initial remarks, we are expecting to continue to do that during the fourth quarter and also into 2023. So you are completely right.

你說的很對。由於不同原材料的價格大幅上漲，我們已經開始減少大量營運資金。正如你所提到的，這並不是我們已經減少的全部金額，但正如我在最初的評論中提到的，我們預計在第四季度和 2023 年繼續這樣做。所以你是完全正確的。

Will we continue reducing working capital? Of course, this will depend on the prices of the different products and raw materials that we purchase. But it's -- at least a significant portion of the build-up of working capital we have in the past will be recovered.

我們會繼續減少營運資金嗎？當然，這將取決於我們購買的不同產品和原材料的價格。但它 - 至少我們過去積累的營運資金的很大一部分將得到恢復。

The second about capital allocation, Caio. It's true. We have a very strong financial position, that's true. But to be honest, given the uncertainty, I think the world is coming or it's going to. We feel a little bit comfortable having this strong position. Nevertheless, as you know, we have a very important investment to be made, mainly in Mexico with all the investments we already announced. And the ones that haven't been announced, but we have been very clear that we are committed to expand our steel shop capabilities to be USMCA compliant by 2027. So that's a huge investment we are making.

第二個關於資本配置，Caio。這是真的。我們有一個非常強大的財務狀況，這是真的。但老實說，鑑於不確定性，我認為世界即將到來或即將到來。擁有這個強大的職位，我們感到有點自在。儘管如此，如您所知，我們有一項非常重要的投資要做，主要是在墨西哥，我們已經宣布了所有投資。還有那些尚未宣布的，但我們非常清楚，我們致力於擴大我們的鋼鐵車間能力，到 2027 年符合 USMCA。所以這是我們正在進行的巨額投資。

And we are, I mean, giving a high yield of dividend, as you can see because of this interim dividend we are having. Buyback is not on the table, to be honest, as we have discussed in the past. So I think that -- and M&A, I never said no. We analyze, and you know that we analyze different opportunities, but we don't have anything to inform today. So there are things that are in the table and we are going to look for opportunities. But again, given the uncertainty that we are expecting the world to have, I think it's good to be in this position. We are very comfortable in this position, giving a huge amount of dividend, because if you calculate the dividend yield, well, we cannot until February, but it's going to be very high.

我的意思是，我們正在提供高收益的股息，正如你所看到的，因為我們擁有這種中期股息。老實說，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，回購不在桌面上。所以我認為——和併購，我從來沒有說不。我們分析，你知道我們分析不同的機會，但我們今天沒有任何信息可告知。所以有些事情已經擺在桌面上，我們將尋找機會。但同樣，鑑於我們對世界的期望存在不確定性，我認為處於這個位置是件好事。我們在這個位置上很舒服，提供了大量的股息，因為如果你計算股息收益率，好吧，我們要到 2 月份才能做到，但它會非常高。

Your next question comes from Jon Brandt with HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Jon Brandt。

Maximo, I first wanted to ask you about steel prices in 2023 and sort of what your view is there. Obviously, there's concern about the global economy and how much slowdown we'll see; higher interest rates, higher inflation, zero COVID in China and things like that. So I guess, what are your expectations for steel prices, particularly in the U.S. and Mexico as we head into 2023? Do you think we'll potentially see some more downside to current spot prices?

Maximo，我首先想問你關於 2023 年的鋼鐵價格以及你的看法。顯然，人們對全球經濟以及我們將看到多少放緩感到擔憂；更高的利率，更高的通貨膨脹，中國的零新冠病毒等等。所以我想，你對鋼鐵價格的預期是什麼，尤其是在我們進入 2023 年的美國和墨西哥？您認為我們可能會看到當前現貨價格出現更多下行空間嗎？

And then my second question just relates to the cost pressures that you're seeing, I understand they're temporary. But could you just give us a little bit more detail? Is it mostly the slabs that you're buying and iron ore prices or iron ore costs that are -- that had the impact on the margins this quarter? And if -- I don't know if there's a way to quantify it, but if you sort of take away the timing differences, if you look at sort of where spot slab is and spot iron ore, is there a way to quantify what your margins would have been if there wasn't this sort of timing impact?

然後我的第二個問題與您所看到的成本壓力有關，我知道它們是暫時的。但是你能給我們提供更多細節嗎？主要是您購買的板坯以及鐵礦石價格或鐵礦石成本對本季度的利潤率產生了影響嗎？如果 - 我不知道是否有辦法量化它，但如果你消除時間差異，如果你看看現貨板坯和現貨鐵礦石的位置，有沒有辦法量化什麼如果沒有這種時間影響，您的利潤會是多少？

I'll ask Pablo to start with the second one, because I think it's much shorter. And then I will try to make a summary of the first one because it's very broad, the prices issue, I think.

我會請 Pablo 從第二個開始，因為我認為它要短得多。然後我會嘗試對第一個問題進行總結，因為它非常廣泛，我認為是價格問題。

You're right. When you were making your question that, clearly, what we have is a mismatch between the price of our product and the timing of reflecting the cost of our product in our financial statements. The big issue here is that when you have a trend of prices going down, you will see what we are reflecting, which is a reduction in the margins. At the moment, you have the other -- the prices move the other way around, meaning prices going up, you will have higher margin than expected.

你是對的。當您提出問題時，很明顯，我們的產品價格與在財務報表中反映我們產品成本的時間不匹配。這裡最大的問題是，當您看到價格下跌的趨勢時，您會看到我們所反映的情況，即利潤減少。目前，你有另一個 - 價格反向移動，這意味著價格上漲，你將獲得比預期更高的利潤。

But to answer clearly your question, and it's something that we tried to pass the message during the opening remarks, both Maximo and myself, is that what we are reflecting today in our cost is the prices of slabs and iron ore and coal that we saw basically in the second quarter of this year or even in the first quarter of this year, where you saw prices of slabs reaching levels of, in some cases, $1,000 per ton or prices of coal that reached $600 per ton. You are seeing that these prices today are way below this level. And also, I don't know, prices are way below the prices that we saw in recent quarters.

但是為了清楚地回答你的問題，這是我們在開場白中試圖傳達的信息，Maximo 和我自己，是我們今天在成本中反映的是我們看到的板坯、鐵礦石和煤炭的價格基本上在今年第二季度甚至今年第一季度，您會看到板坯價格達到每噸 1,000 美元或煤炭價格達到每噸 600 美元的水平。你會看到今天的這些價格遠低於這個水平。而且，我不知道，價格遠低於我們最近幾個季度看到的價格。

So that's why we are very comfortable to say -- I'm trying to go to a specific number. But even though that next quarter we will be showing a level of course much higher than the real one or the replacing costs of these raw materials. We are expecting to go back to normalized level entering into next year. So that's why we said that we will probably go in the fourth quarter to a margin below the normal range of Ternium and we will return to at least to that level entering into first year -- into the first part of the year. So the is where this mismatch is coming from.

所以這就是為什麼我們可以很自在地說——我正試圖找到一個具體的數字。但即使下個季度我們將顯示出比實際水平或這些原材料的更換成本高得多的水平。我們預計進入明年會回到正常水平。所以這就是為什麼我們說我們可能會在第四季度達到低於 Ternium 正常範圍的利潤率，並且我們將至少回到第一年的那個水平 - 進入今年上半年。這就是這種不匹配的來源。

So the second semester of this year, both the third quarter and the fourth will be having this negative impact and then this should be over entering into the first half of the year. So that's why for us, the number for Ternium continues to be relatively good. If you take on average what we are presenting for 2022, you will see that the EBITDA that we're generating is pretty solid, clearly, because of the price levels we are expecting to see or reflect exactly the same, but we should be reflecting a decent and a good level of profitability entering into 2023.

所以今年第二季度，第三季度和第四季度都會產生這種負面影響，然後進入上半年應該會結束。這就是為什麼對我們來說，Ternium 的數量仍然相對較好。如果您平均計算我們為 2022 年提供的數據，您會發現我們產生的 EBITDA 非常可靠，顯然，因為我們期望看到或反映的價格水平完全相同，但我們應該反映進入 2023 年，盈利水平相當不錯。

I'll try to be short also, although I don't know if I'm going to be able. Price in 2023, clearly -- I mean, it's clear that steel prices in the North American region continued to decrease, reaching somehow a level of prices that were below our expectations. I still think that the base price or the normal price -- the normalized price is going to be higher, as I said in several conference calls, of course, between the range between $800, $900, even $1,000, that this is a new range of steel prices going forward. But in the short-term, clearly, what is happening in the world is affecting the steel price in North America. How much, is something that we have to still analyze. I think there are good news or there are some bad news, but there is a lot of good news.

我也會嘗試做空，雖然我不知道我是否能夠做到。很明顯，2023 年的價格——我的意思是，很明顯，北美地區的鋼鐵價格繼續下跌，以某種方式達到了低於我們預期的價格水平。我仍然認為基準價格或正常價格——正常價格會更高，正如我在幾次電話會議中所說，當然，在 800 美元、900 美元甚至 1,000 美元之間，這是一個新的範圍未來鋼價。但在短期內，很明顯，世界正在發生的事情正在影響北美的鋼鐵價格。有多少，還是要分析的。我認為有好消息或有一些壞消息，但有很多好消息。

Clearly, I mean, prices are going to be a reflection of what will happen in the economy in the next quarters. I think that some of the economies in the world are going to get troubled, no doubt. Europe is going to be much more harder impact than the Americas. The slowdown in China, it doesn't seem that it's going to end in the very, very short range. But I am confident that the recession in the Americas, as I said, is not going to be as hard, if there is a recession, as in other parts of the world. But clearly, prices in the short-term are going to be a reflection of how bad or how long or how hard this recession is. Again, our expectation is that it's not going to be as hard as in some other parts.

顯然，我的意思是，價格將反映未來幾個季度的經濟情況。我認為，毫無疑問，世界上的一些經濟體將會陷入困境。歐洲將比美洲產生更大的影響。中國的放緩，似乎不會在非常非常短的時間內結束。但我相信，正如我所說，美洲的衰退不會像世界其他地區那樣嚴重，如果出現衰退的話。但很明顯，短期內的價格將反映這次衰退的嚴重程度、持續時間或嚴重程度。同樣，我們的期望是它不會像其他部分那樣難。

The good news is that we are really seeing a change in the dynamics of the market. And we are seeing new customers and old customers, customers we have today, investing heavily in the region to nearshoring, reshoring; now there's a new term I heard the other day, friend-shoring. I mean, this is happening. If you take in the Mexican market, for example, our -- we have a very, very small -- so it doesn't make any sense in the numbers, but a very small division that make construction or industrial manufacturing buildings.

好消息是，我們確實看到了市場動態的變化。我們看到新客戶和老客戶，我們今天擁有的客戶，在該地區大力投資近岸、回流；現在有一個我前幾天聽到的新術語，朋友支持。我的意思是，這正在發生。例如，如果你以墨西哥市場為例，我們的 - 我們有一個非常非常小的 - 所以它在數字上沒有任何意義，而是一個非常小的部門，製造建築或工業製造建築物。

We are full for the next seven months. And we have [quotation] for the next two and a half or two years. So this -- and these are industrial manufacturers that are coming to Mexico, that are coming to the U.S. to be more -- I mean to put more facilities, the facility consumes steel, of course, and we are selling a lot of that steel. But the customers in the future, much of them are going to consume also steel. So you are seeing this trend coming. So I think that for the medium, long-term, there is a big opportunity for us, not only in volume, but to have a more stable prices. That's the good news. Clearly, what will happen with the supposed recession in North America is going to impact the short-term outlook of the prices. If it starts, it's going to be a little bit lower. I hope to give you a summary of this on, Jon.

接下來的七個月我們已經滿了。我們有未來兩年半或兩年的[報價]。所以這個 - 這些是來到墨西哥的工業製造商，他們來到美國的更多 - 我的意思是增加設施，當然，設施消耗鋼鐵，我們正在銷售大量鋼鐵.但是未來的客戶，他們中的很多人也會消費鋼鐵。所以你看到了這種趨勢。所以我認為，從中長期來看，我們有很大的機會，不僅在數量上，而且在價格上更穩定。這就是好消息。顯然，北美所謂的衰退將發生什麼將影響價格的短期前景。如果它開始，它會稍微低一點。我希望給你一個總結，喬恩。

Your next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

So coming back to the CapEx and the cash flow generation, can we talk about maybe the timing -- the potential timing of an announcement for the new electrical furnace in North America? And whether or not this might negatively impact the dividend per ADS or per share that the company pays in the coming years?

那麼回到資本支出和現金流的產生，我們能否談談時機——北美新電爐宣布的潛在時機？這是否會對公司在未來幾年支付的每份 ADS 或每股股息產生負面影響？

The second part, no, is the answer. Clearly, no. I mean, it's a huge investment, but I think Ternium is more than capable of doing. The first part of the question is the timing. I mean, we have been discussing this and we are working very hard on this in the engineering process. To be honest, this -- I mean, we have to have the facility running by 2027. That's the deadline of the new USMCA rule of origins. So we have time. And this uncertainty of the economy of the world, to be honest, it's giving us some time to think even how to -- what is the best technology to use, and that's the discussion we are having, and how we can be more competitive in both sense, competitive in the production cost and in the CapEx. So we are in that process. We don't have exact timing, but it should be soon.

第二部分，不，是答案。顯然，沒有。我的意思是，這是一項巨大的投資，但我認為 Ternium 有能力做到這一點。問題的第一部分是時機。我的意思是，我們一直在討論這個問題，並且在工程過程中我們正在努力解決這個問題。老實說，這 - 我的意思是，我們必須在 2027 年之前讓設施運行。那是新的 USMCA 原產地規則的最後期限。所以我們有時間。世界經濟的這種不確定性，老實說，它給了我們一些時間來思考如何——什麼是最好的技術，這就是我們正在進行的討論，以及我們如何才能在在生產成本和資本支出方面都具有競爭力。所以我們正處於這個過程中。我們沒有確切的時間，但應該很快。

And my second question is related to the risk of potential imports into the Mexican market mostly from North America, from the U.S., but mostly from other places. The situation in Europe on the demand side is complicated. And yeah, they are shutting down capacity as well. But prices are low, demand is weak and prices in Asia are also quite low. So how do you see the risk of imports into the Mexican market?

我的第二個問題與潛在進口到墨西哥市場的風險有關，這些進口主要來自北美、美國，但主要來自其他地方。歐洲需求方面的情況很複雜。是的，他們也在關閉產能。但價格很低，需求疲軟，亞洲的價格也很低。那麼您如何看待進口到墨西哥市場的風險？

The risk is always there. I think if you see the -- especially in flat products, which is where we can grow, we can -- we are at full capacity in long products. So speaking of flat products, if you see the last 12 months, there has been a steady decline in the amount of imports coming to Mexico. Last month was September, the information -- the last information in September, I think that is going to continue. Why, because we are very eager to get that market share. We said that when we put our hot strip mill running. So I think that we are gaining more contracts and we are going through that input.

風險始終存在。我認為，如果您看到 - 特別是在扁平材產品中，我們可以在這方面發展，我們可以 - 我們在長材產品方面處於滿負荷狀態。所以說到扁平材，如果你看到過去 12 個月，進入墨西哥的進口量一直在穩步下降。上個月是 9 月，信息 - 9 月的最後一個信息，我認為這將繼續。為什麼，因為我們非常渴望獲得那個市場份額。當我們讓帶鋼熱軋機運行時，我們說過。所以我認為我們正在獲得更多的合同，我們正在接受這些投入。

There is a risk, yes. I don't think there is a risk of a continuous export from European or Asian countries. There is a risk of spot export, yes. But to be honest, today, North America is very competitive in steel. So I don't think they have the competitiveness going forward in the long run. Some spot operation, probably at a substantial low level.

有風險，是的。我不認為存在從歐洲或亞洲國家持續出口的風險。有現貨出口的風險，是的。但老實說，今天，北美在鋼鐵方面非常有競爭力。所以我認為從長遠來看，他們沒有競爭力。部分現貨操作，可能處於大幅低位。

The other thing is to remember that in Mexico and in the U.S., in the U.S. you have the 232, which is very good. In Mexico, you also have a kind of 232. So there is some kind of level of -- it's not protection, because it's not protection, but helping when these countries make the dumping of steel to the North American region. So that's a second part that make it a little bit more difficult.

另一件事是要記住，在墨西哥和美國，在美國你有 232，這非常好。在墨西哥，你也有一種 232。所以有某種程度的——不是保護，因為它不是保護，而是在這些國家向北美地區傾銷鋼鐵時提供幫助。所以這是第二部分，使它變得更加困難。

The third, you asked about the U.S., probably, yes, our bigger competitor today is the U.S. Again, we think having the flexibility we have in our facilities and our cost structure that we are able to compete with them very good. So I think imports are going to continue, but the trend of the last 12 months is a trend that is going to continue in Mexico.

第三，你問到美國，可能，是的，我們今天更大的競爭對手是美國。同樣，我們認為我們的設施和成本結構具有靈活性，我們能夠與他們競爭非常好。所以我認為進口將繼續，但過去 12 個月的趨勢是墨西哥將繼續的趨勢。

Your next question comes from Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco.

您的下一個問題來自 Thiago Lofiego 和 Bradesco。

Maximo, actually one question on my side, on the demand side in Mexico. So you mentioned construction activity in Mexico is low. Can you give us more color on what you're seeing, maybe breaking it down by properties, residential, commercial, infrastructure? So if you could give us more color that would be very helpful.

Maximo，實際上是我這邊的一個問題，關於墨西哥的需求方面。所以你提到墨西哥的建築活動很低。您能否就您所看到的內容給我們更多的色彩，也許可以按房產、住宅、商業、基礎設施進行細分？所以如果你能給我們更多的顏色，那將是非常有幫助的。

Yes, Thiago, for sure. I mean, construction in the residential market is the one that is down in Mexico. And it's not happening in the same timing as in the U.S. I think in the U.S., residential housing is also starting to decline, but this is very recently. In Mexico, it has been for quite some time already this going down for residential. Because of that, some of the industries that sells also to the residential market, I'm talking about home appliances, for example, and that sells to both to Mexico and the U.S. export material to the U.S., those industries are not performing very well.

是的，蒂亞戈，當然。我的意思是，住宅市場的建設是墨西哥的下滑。而且它發生的時間與美國不同。我認為在美國，住宅也開始下降，但這是最近的事。在墨西哥，對於住宅而言，這種情況已經有很長一段時間了。正因為如此，一些也向住宅市場銷售的行業，例如家用電器，向墨西哥和美國向美國出口材料，這些行業表現不佳.

On the other hand, there is industries that are performing better. Construction in the non-residential is very high. As I told you, our example of our metal building facility, which again, is very small. So it doesn't make the numbers in Ternium.But that's huge to have more than two years of quotation in non-residential construction, it's never happened. There is no good statistic also in Mexico where you can say how many construction, non-residential construction are there. But if you take a survey that makes GLL, it's a broker, an American broker, they made a survey about how many million meter squares are constructed of industrial infrastructure. I mean, it is continued growing.

另一方面，有些行業表現更好。非住宅的建設非常高。正如我告訴你的，我們的金屬建築設施的例子，同樣非常小。所以它並沒有在 Ternium 中產生數字。但是在非住宅建築中有超過兩年的報價是巨大的，它從未發生過。墨西哥也沒有好的統計數據，你可以說那裡有多少建築，非住宅建築。但是如果你做一個調查，做GLL，它是一個經紀人，一個美國經紀人，他們做了一個關於有多少百萬平方米的工業基礎設施建設的調查。我的意思是，它還在繼續增長。

This quarter, the first semester of '22, they constructed the same amount as all the amount that was constructed last year in the first semester. And the occupation rate of this industrial -- a lot of these warehouses are rented. That usually works about 6%, 7%, today it's almost 3%. So there is a huge investment in these industrial parks, let's put it that way, Thiago. That is -- it's kind of balancing the other one.

本季度，即 22 年第一學期，他們建造的數量與去年第一學期建造的所有數量相同。而這個產業的佔用率——這些倉庫很多都是租用的。這通常工作大約 6%、7%，今天幾乎是 3%。所以對這些工業園區有巨大的投資，讓我們這麼說吧，蒂亞戈。那就是——這是一種平衡另一個。

And another thing that is balancing is other industries. Automotive industry, again, is not perfect, is not high enough as we thought it would be. They are still having some problems in the supply chain with some stoppage of different plants, but the demand they have is still very big. I mean, you cannot get a new car in Mexico. I think in the U.S., inventories are also very low. So I think that they are going to continue trying to increase a little bit capacity. And other companies, especially companies that works in equipment are also very high in demand. So it's a balance. I hope I answered the question, Thiago.

另一個需要平衡的是其他行業。同樣，汽車行業並不完美，也沒有我們想像的那麼高。他們在供應鏈上仍然存在一些問題，一些工廠停工，但他們的需求仍然很大。我的意思是，你不能在墨西哥買新車。我認為在美國，庫存也非常低。所以我認為他們將繼續嘗試增加一點容量。而其他公司，尤其是從事設備工作的公司，需求量也很大。所以這是一個平衡。我希望我回答了這個問題，蒂亞戈。

Yeah, you did, Maximo. Just a very quick follow-up. So on the auto sector. So is this more of an expectation that things will normalize and then auto production will ramp up or you're already seeing that? Because I get the demand side of the equation, which is definitely there is -- there is demand there, but is there enough production already happening or do you think this is more coming in in the coming months?

是的，你做到了，馬克西莫。只是一個非常快速的跟進。在汽車領域也是如此。那麼，這更像是一種期望，即事情會正常化，然後汽車生產會增加，還是你已經看到了？因為我得到了等式的需求方面，這肯定是存在的——那裡有需求，但是已經有足夠的生產了，還是你認為未來幾個月會有更多的生產？

Let me answer with my thoughts -- well, at least what is happening in Mexico. I think most of the automakers have in their plants to produce much more. And then there are searches of some kinds of semiconductors or other pieces that don't allow them to produce at the pace they want to produce. That is happening. I mean, from what we heard from them, it is easing, but it's not easing at the pace we thought it was going to be easing, these restrictions.

讓我用我的想法來回答——好吧，至少墨西哥正在發生什麼。我認為大多數汽車製造商的工廠都可以生產更多產品。然後是對某些類型的半導體或其他部件的搜索，這些部件不允許他們以他們想要的速度生產。這正在發生。我的意思是，根據我們從他們那裡聽到的消息，它正在放鬆，但並沒有像我們認為的那樣放鬆，這些限制。

So I cannot tell you a straight answer saying they're going to produce 10% more or 15% more. They're going to produce the same or more, for sure, but how much is that, we don't have exactly the number because it changed very rapidly. I mean, the stoppage are announced for one week for the other one. So that's what is happening.

所以我不能直接告訴你他們會多生產 10% 或 15%。他們肯定會生產相同或更多的產品，但那是多少，我們沒有確切的數字，因為它變化非常快。我的意思是，另一周宣布停工一周。所以這就是正在發生的事情。

And very last one. So balancing everything out here in terms of the steel demand in Mexico, your best guess is for flattish volumes for next year. Is that right?just confirming that.

最後一個。因此，根據墨西哥的鋼鐵需求來平衡這裡的一切，你最好的猜測是明年的銷量持平。對嗎？只是確認一下。

Yeah, it's an increase. Again, if you see the short grained outlook, I think it was an increase of 2% or 3% of the demand in Mexico, which I think is correct to think that way.

是的，是增加。同樣，如果您看到短期前景，我認為墨西哥的需求增加了 2% 或 3%，我認為這種想法是正確的。

So actually a small increase?

所以實際上是小幅增長？

No, it's not a big increase. Again, this is a balance, and it depends a lot -- I mean, we are being conservative saying that there is going to be a recession. That's our base case scenario in world steel. And so we are being conservative. Nevertheless, it is an increase in consumption -- in steel consumption.

不，這不是一個很大的增長。同樣，這是一種平衡，這在很大程度上取決於——我的意思是，我們保守地說將會出現衰退。這是我們在世界鋼鐵領域的基本情況。所以我們是保守的。然而，這是消費的增加——鋼鐵消費。

Your next question comes from Alfonso Salazar with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自 Scotiabank 的 Alfonso Salazar。

The question that I have is regarding global steel trade. What are your expectations, and not only for 2023, but in the long-term? And the question is regarding the problem of over-capacity and the fact that there is more capacity being built in North America. There could be excess capacity in China because of all the challenges that the country is facing. So just trying to understand or want to hear your thoughts about what's going to happen four, five years from now against the backdrop of lower demand in China, increased demand in the U.S. With the big difference in prices globally, do you expect more protectionism coming later in the decade? And also to what extent USMCA protection warrants the investments that you are making in Mexico?

我的問題是關於全球鋼鐵貿易的。您的期望是什麼，不僅是 2023 年，而且是長期的？問題是關於產能過剩的問題以及北美正在建設更多產能的事實。由於該國面臨的所有挑戰，中國可能存在產能過剩。因此，在中國需求下降、美國需求增加的背景下，只是想了解或想听聽您對四五年後會發生什麼的看法。隨著全球價格的巨大差異，您是否預計會出現更多的保護主義十年後？此外，USMCA 保護在多大程度上保證了您在墨西哥進行的投資？

Alfonso, it's a very good question, and I'll try to make the best effort to answer it. I think that global steel trade is growing at a trend that is going to decrease in the future, and we are seeing all this. I mean, today, there is more regionalization or whatever you want to call it. And I think that it's very clear that the Atlantic or whatever you want to call, the Atlantic Alliance is moving one way and China is moving another one.

阿方索，這是一個很好的問題，我會盡力回答。我認為全球鋼鐵貿易正在以未來將減少的趨勢增長，我們看到了這一切。我的意思是，今天，有更多的區域化或任何你想稱之為的東西。而且我認為很明顯，大西洋或任何你想稱呼的東西，大西洋聯盟正在向一種方向發展，而中國正在向另一種方向發展。

So of course, there's over-capacity in China. Of course, that over-capacity has to be dealt with. And we have been working or we have been very advocate that China has to work for that over-capacity. But I think that, as I said before, nearshoring is something that is happening. And so that demand, that steel consumption is going to come to the region. North America first, but there are also other parts, Brazil, for example, that will probably be benefit for this trend also.

當然，中國的產能過剩。當然，必須解決產能過剩的問題。我們一直在努力，或者我們一直非常主張中國必須為產能過剩而努力。但我認為，正如我之前所說，近岸外包正在發生。因此，需求，鋼鐵消費將來到該地區。首先是北美，但也有其他地區，例如巴西，這可能也會有利於這一趨勢。

So I think that in a sense, our operations, which are -- I mean, we are very well balanced or very well positioned in where we are producing steel because I think other places who are going to be benefit for this trend that is something that is going to happen and it will continue for the next several years. I am not concerned about over-capacity in the U.S. I think, yes, there are new plants being built. They are going to compete with us. But to be honest, there's a lot of inputs in the U.S., more than 25 million tons.

所以我認為，從某種意義上說，我們的運營——我的意思是，我們非常平衡，或者在我們生產鋼鐵的地方處於非常有利的位置，因為我認為其他將從這一趨勢中受益的地方這將會發生，並將在接下來的幾年中持續下去。我不擔心美國的產能過剩。我認為，是的，正在建造新工廠。他們將與我們競爭。但老實說，美國有很多投入，超過2500萬噸。

And second, I mean, there are also, I mean, some old facilities that in some time in the next five years, some of them has to be shut down, they're not very competitive. So I'm not worried about that. And I think this trend is helping us as Ternium of where we are positioned for the next five years. I hope I answered the question with that, Alfonso.

其次，我的意思是，還有一些舊設施，在未來五年的某個時候，它們中的一些必須關閉，它們不是很有競爭力。所以我對此並不擔心。我認為這種趨勢正在幫助我們作為 Ternium 確定未來五年的定位。我希望我能回答這個問題，阿方索。

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolf Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolf Research 的 Timna Tanners。

A couple of questions. One is, I know you just mentioned flat volumes in Mexico. But regarding Ternium's volumes, I wanted to get a little bit more color thinking ahead about both the mix and your ability to ramp up further. Obviously, you have spare capacity we've talked about in the past. But with the qualification process that you're going through or said you were going through ahead, like how do we think about the mix improving? And how do we think about potentially taking more share from import in light of AMSA ramping up and in light of just the competitive nature of the broader market?

幾個問題。一是，我知道你剛剛提到墨西哥的銷量持平。但是關於 Ternium 的音量，我想對混音和進一步提升的能力進行更多的色彩思考。顯然，你有我們過去討論過的空閒容量。但是隨著你正在經歷或說你正在經歷的資格認證過程，比如我們如何看待混合改進？鑑於 AMSA 的發展以及更廣泛市場的競爭性質，我們如何考慮可能從進口中獲得更多份額？

Let me try to answer that, Timna, because it's a good question. I think -- I mean, as I said, market in Mexico, there are some good and some bad news. So the market, as the World Steel put it in the SRO, is not going to grow a lot, but we are confident that we are going to grow more volume in the flat products. The ramp-up of hot strip mill in Pesqueria is doing very well. On October, it made 317,000 tons, which was a record. I know that we have the Churubusco mill running at lower capacity, but we have that to increase capacity as we are citing this input.

蒂姆娜，讓我試著回答這個問題，因為這是個好問題。我認為 - 我的意思是，正如我所說，墨西哥市場，有一些好消息和一些壞消息。因此，正如 World Steel 在 SRO 中所說的那樣，市場不會有太大的增長，但我們有信心在板材產品中增加更多的銷量。 Pesqueria 熱軋帶鋼廠的產能提升非常好。 10月份，它的產量為31.7萬噸，創歷史新高。我知道我們的 Churubusco 工廠以較低的產能運行，但我們有這樣的能力來增加產能，因為我們引用了這一投入。

The imports in Mexico of flat products are around 450,000 tons a month. So there's a lot of imports in Mexico. But of course, most of those imports are industrial customers. So that's that mix. And all -- most of those industrial customers needs to go through a certification process that takes time. And so we are seeing now new contracts that we are winning for 2023. We are discussing new contracts of products that we weren't able to do.

墨西哥平板產品每月進口量約為 45 萬噸。所以墨西哥有很多進口產品。但當然，這些進口產品中的大部分都是工業客戶。所以這就是混合。而且所有這些工業客戶中的大多數都需要經過一個需要時間的認證過程。因此，我們現在看到我們正在贏得 2023 年的新合同。我們正在討論我們無法完成的產品的新合同。

Regarding the other producers in Mexico, I think the two of them are in a different situation. So -- and I don't want to talk a lot about competitors, but some -- one of those are increasing production and the other one is in the other side. So we don't see a lot of change there.

關於墨西哥的其他生產商，我認為他們兩個處於不同的情況。所以——我不想過多談論競爭對手，但有些——其中一個正在增加產量，另一個在另一邊。所以我們看不到那裡有很大的變化。

So then the other questions I had, one is regarding how to think about EBITDA per ton and margins going forward. So clearly, Q3 hit by higher costs as prices fall. But even as costs fall, you should see more prices declining on a lag into the first quarter from the way that you price your product on a lag on quarterly contracts. So is this a good run rate margin do you think given that both prices and costs still have to decline into the next several quarters or how do you think about the recent run rate relative to how -- obviously, out earning perhaps a bit last year, maybe is this a good run rate or do you think that there's potential to see margin improvement from third quarter?

那麼我還有其他問題，一個是關於如何考慮每噸 EBITDA 和未來的利潤率。很明顯，隨著價格下跌，第三季度成本上升。但是，即使成本下降，您應該會看到更多的價格下降到第一季度，因為您對產品定價的方式滯後於季度合同。那麼，鑑於價格和成本在接下來的幾個季度中仍需下降，您認為這是一個良好的運行率利潤率嗎？或者您如何看待最近的運行率相對於 - 顯然，去年的收入可能有點，也許這是一個不錯的運行率，或者您認為第三季度的利潤率有可能提高嗎？

Timna, this is Pablo. Let me take this question. Clearly, what you saw during the third quarter, which is margin of 16%, is something that we are expecting to see a reduction over that in the fourth quarter because of the reason, which I explained. Your question is going more to a more sustainable level of margins, that is, what we are expecting to see in the coming quarters starting next year, starting the first quarter and moving to the second quarter to stabilize at the new level of prices.

蒂姆娜，這是巴勃羅。讓我來回答這個問題。顯然，您在第三季度看到的利潤率為 16%，由於我解釋的原因，我們預計會比第四季度有所減少。您的問題更多地涉及到更可持續的利潤率水平，即我們期望從明年開始的未來幾個季度，從第一季度開始到第二季度，以穩定在新的價格水平。

Taking into consideration the picture Maximo depicted on the view of prices, I will follow, of course, on that view. And if that's the case and with the reduction in the level of cost that we will be seeing entering into the first and second quarter with significant reduction in the input cost, we are expecting to return to normalized level of EBITDA margins entering into and after these two quarters of the year, we should be there and sustain that level. When I mean in historical levels, I mean between 15% to 20% of EBITDA margin. We were adjusting the low part of this range during the third quarter. We will not be there during the fourth quarter. And we will start recovering that level entering into the first quarter and moving into the second quarter and then sustain that during the rest of the year.

考慮到馬克西莫所描繪的價格觀點，我當然會遵循那個觀點。如果是這種情況，並且隨著我們將看到進入第一季度和第二季度的成本水平降低，投入成本顯著降低，我們預計在進入和之後的 EBITDA 利潤率將恢復到正常水平在一年的兩個季度中，我們應該在那裡並保持這一水平。當我指的是歷史水平時，我的意思是 EBITDA 利潤率的 15% 到 20% 之間。我們在第三季度調整了這個範圍的下限。我們不會在第四季度出現。我們將在第一季度開始恢復該水平並進入第二季度，然後在今年剩餘時間保持這一水平。

Of course, this will be subject to changes in the market, but this is the view that we have. This is the goal that we have. This will be helped by all the things that Maximo also mentioned, which is the new customers of new products and the substitution of imports. So that's our work in a scenario, and that's what we are seeing.

當然，這會受到市場變化的影響，但這是我們的看法。這是我們的目標。 Maximo 還提到的所有事情都會對這有所幫助，即新產品的新客戶和進口替代品。所以這是我們在一個場景中的工作，這就是我們所看到的。

And then the last one for me, if I could, was just on -- in the past, you've talked about some thoughts on CapEx heading into 2023, in particular, $1 billion investment in finishing lines. So I was just trying to get a sense of how much we might expect to see that increase year-over-year? And if those projects are still on track?

然後對我來說，最後一個，如果可以的話，只是在過去，你談到了一些關於進入 2023 年資本支出的想法，特別是對終點線的 10 億美元投資。所以我只是想了解我們可能期望看到同比增長多少？如果這些項目仍在進行中？

Yes, we are still expecting $1 billion in 2023, probably 2024 is going to be a little bit higher than that with all the things that we have been discussing.

是的，我們仍然預計 2023 年將達到 10 億美元，考慮到我們一直在討論的所有事情，2024 年可能會比這個數字高一點。

There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to CEO, Maximo Vedoya for closing remarks.

沒有進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給首席執行官 Maximo Vedoya 以結束髮言。

Thank you very much all for your participation today. As always, please contact us for any suggestion or additional questions. Have a very good day.

非常感謝大家今天的參與。與往常一樣，如有任何建議或其他問題，請聯繫我們。有一個非常美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。