Ternium SA (TX) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Cheryl, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Sebastian Marti, you may begin your conference.

謝謝你的支持。我叫 Cheryl，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Ternium 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）Sebastian Marti，你可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you all for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Marti, and I am Ternium's Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director.

謝謝你。早上好。感謝大家今天加入我們。我叫 Sebastian Marti，是 Ternium 的全球投資者關係和合規高級總監。

Ternium released yesterday its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. This call is complementary to that presentation. Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Maximo Vedoya and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

Ternium 昨天發布了 2021 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。本次電話會議是對該報告的補充。今天加入我的是 Ternium 的首席執行官； Maximo Vedoya 先生和公司首席財務官 Pablo Brizzio 將討論 Ternium 的商業環境和業績。在我們準備好的發言結束時，將有一個問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information, and the actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 of today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議包含前瞻性信息，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的有所不同。可能影響結果的因素包含在我們向證券交易委員會提交的文件中以及今天網絡廣播演示的第 2 頁中。您還可以在昨天發布的新聞稿中找到與最直接可比的 IFRS 措施一致的非 IFRS 財務措施的任何參考。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Vedoya 先生。

Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. 2021 was an amazing year for Ternium. EBITDA reached $4.9 billion, close to 4x the previous year's level. Net income was $4.4 billion and earnings per ADS were $19.5, almost 5x earnings in 2020. All of these are record levels. Last year, Ternium also finished latest expansion program with the start-up of its new state-of-the-art hot rolling mill at the Pesqueria facility in Mexico and of the rebar rolling mill greenfield project in Colombia. On top of these very positive results, the company had significant cash generation with free cash flow at $2.1 billion, which took our balance sheet to a net cash position.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。 2021 年對 Ternium 來說是驚人的一年。 EBITDA 達到 49 億美元，接近去年水平的 4 倍。淨收入為 44 億美元，每份 ADS 收益為 19.5 美元，幾乎是 2020 年收益的 5 倍。所有這些都是創紀錄的水平。去年，Ternium 還完成了最新的擴張計劃，在墨西哥 Pesqueria 工廠啟動了新的最先進的熱軋機，並在哥倫比亞啟動了螺紋鋼軋機新建項目。除了這些非常積極的結果外，該公司還產生了大量現金，自由現金流為 21 億美元，這使我們的資產負債表處於淨現金狀態。

Taking into consideration the company's strong performance and its solid financial position, Ternium's Board of Directors proposed a dividend for the year of $2.60 per ADS, equivalent to $510 million. This represents an increase of 24% compared to 2020, and it is the highest annual dividend on record, being more than double the annual dividend level the company was paid pre COVID pandemic.

考慮到公司強勁的業績和穩健的財務狀況，Ternium 的董事會提議每年派發每股 ADS 2.60 美元的股息，相當於 5.1 億美元。這比 2020 年增加了 24%，是有記錄以來最高的年度股息，是公司在 COVID 大流行之前支付的年度股息水平的兩倍多。

Another development is the company's recent offer to acquire from Ternium Argentina, the minority participation in Ternium Mexico that Ternium does not own directly. This transaction is primarily aimed at streamlining our corporate structure. A simplified corporate structure allows for both a more straightforward management of our operations, and an easier analysis of our performance and results by our stakeholders. The offer is still being analyzed by Ternium Argentina's Board of Directors and if deemed attractive, it would need to be put to the vote of its shareholders.

另一個發展是該公司最近提出要從 Ternium Argentina 收購 Ternium 墨西哥的少數股權，Ternium 並不直接擁有。該交易主要旨在精簡我們的公司結構。簡化的公司結構既可以更直接地管理我們的運營，也可以讓利益相關者更輕鬆地分析我們的績效和結果。 Ternium Argentina 的董事會仍在分析該要約，如果認為具有吸引力，則需要將其提交股東投票。

I'll turn now to the status of our main markets, beginning with Mexico. Ternium's shipments in Mexico decreased in the fourth quarter, more than what we expected in our last conference call. Even though the fourth quarter of the year is seasonally weak, there were additional factors that intensified the sequential fall in volumes. During the first 9 months of 2021, steel consumption grew significantly in Mexico. In an environment of increasing steel prices with the local steel industry working at full capacity, there was a large increase in import orders to cover for the extra need of the market.

我現在要談談我們主要市場的狀況，從墨西哥開始。 Ternium 在墨西哥的出貨量在第四季度有所下降，超過了我們在上次電話會議中的預期。儘管今年第四季度季節性疲軟，但還有其他因素加劇了銷量的連續下降。 2021 年前 9 個月，墨西哥的鋼鐵消費量顯著增長。在鋼材價格上漲、當地鋼鐵行業開足馬力的環境下，進口訂單大幅增加，以滿足市場的額外需求。

In the fourth quarter, where steel prices began to fall, imports arriving with a longer lead time as a result of supply chain disruption caused an increase in inventories and a decrease in apparent demand by the end of the year. In addition, an unexpected persistence of the semiconductor shortage for vehicles manufactured continue impacting Ternium's shipment, as the auto industry represents about 1/4 of our sales volume. This was not the only affected sector, as other industrial customers have been dealing with a similar environment. Our current view is that steel imports into the region will decrease in part due to the significant steel correction over the last few months.

在鋼鐵價格開始下跌的第四季度，由於供應鏈中斷，進口到貨時間較長，導致庫存增加，到年底表觀需求減少。此外，由於汽車行業約占我們銷量的 1/4，製造的汽車半導體短缺的意外持續影響繼續影響 Ternium 的出貨量。這不是唯一受影響的行業，因為其他工業客戶一直在處理類似的環境。我們目前的觀點是，該地區的鋼材進口量將減少，部分原因是過去幾個月鋼材價格大幅調整。

In addition, further normalization of the availability of semiconductor should support a recovery in apparent steel demand and a consequent increase in Ternium's volume, something that we're already seeing in the first quarter of the year. The company is ready for such scenario as its new hot rolling mill in Pesqueria continues to ramp up with the first million tons of production milestone already behind us, and with a whole new range of products at its disposal to readily substitute imports in the Mexican market.

此外，半導體供應的進一步正常化應該會支持明顯的鋼鐵需求的複蘇以及隨之而來的 Ternium 銷量的增加，我們在今年第一季度已經看到了這一點。該公司已準備好應對這樣的情況，因為其位於 Pesqueria 的新熱軋廠繼續擴大產能，第一個百萬噸的生產里程碑已經過去，並且可以使用一系列全新的產品來輕鬆替代墨西哥市場的進口產品.

Let's review now the situation of the Argentinian market. Shipments in Argentina have been steady during 2021, with a very healthy sales level, especially in agribusiness, the automotive industry and construction, and we expect this to continue for the rest of the first quarter. Having said this, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding Argentina's macroeconomic environment in ...

現在讓我們回顧一下阿根廷市場的情況。阿根廷的出貨量在 2021 年保持穩定，銷售水平非常健康，尤其是在農業綜合企業、汽車工業和建築業，我們預計第一季度剩餘時間這種情況將持續。話雖如此，阿根廷的宏觀經濟環境存在高度不確定性...

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. We -- there is a slight technical delay. Please remain on the line.

女士們，先生們，這是接線員。我們——有輕微的技術延遲。請保持在線。

Hello. Can you hear us now, Maximo?

你好。你現在能聽到我們的聲音嗎，馬克西莫？

Sebastian, you are live. We have lost Maximo.

塞巴斯蒂安，你活著。我們失去了馬克西莫。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Hello, can you hear us? Okay. Sorry, I think we have an issue with the communications. I don't know if it's Maximo -- we'll work out. As Maximo has been cut off now, so let me start with my remarks. And then when we have Maximo back on line, we will continue to hear his opening remarks.

你好，你能聽到我們的聲音嗎？好的。抱歉，我認為我們的通訊有問題。我不知道是不是馬克西莫——我們會解決的。由於現在 Maximo 已被切斷，所以讓我開始我的評論。然後，當我們讓 Maximo 重新上線時，我們將繼續聽到他的開場白。

So good morning to everybody. And let me start by going to the presentations and review the performance of Ternium for the full year 2021.

大家早上好。讓我首先參加演示並回顧 Ternium 在 2021 年全年的表現。

Sorry, Maximo, you are back in line.

抱歉，Maximo，你又回來了。

Yes. I'm sorry about that guys. Something happened here in Mexico. So I was speaking, I think, about Argentina. I mean regarding Argentina's macroeconomic environment in 2022, although the country has recently agreed with the IMF, I think I think I was saying, on the road map to refinance its debt, Argentina has very low levels of international reserves, a significant fiscal deficit and high inflation. If this imbalances are not addressed appropriately, instability in the main macroeconomic variables in the country could have a negative effect in Ternium sales in the market in the year ahead.

是的。我很抱歉那些傢伙。在墨西哥這裡發生了一些事情。所以我說的，我想，是關於阿根廷的。我的意思是關於 2022 年阿根廷的宏觀經濟環境，儘管該國最近與國際貨幣基金組織達成了一致，但我想我是在說，在為其債務再融資的路線圖上，阿根廷的國際儲備水平非常低，財政赤字巨大，而且高通脹。如果這種不平衡沒有得到適當解決，該國主要宏觀經濟變量的不穩定可能會對未來一年市場上的 Ternium 銷售產生負面影響。

I would like now to make a quick comment regarding Ternium's sustainability initiatives. In the last quarter's conference, I mentioned the company's carbon capture and usage capacity expansion projects in the Guerrero and Puebla facilities in Mexico. Since then, we launched the second phase of the project at the Guerrero facility with the aim at increasing by 42% our current capacity. This will result in a total CO2 capture and usage capacity of over 400,000 tons per year in Mexico, equivalent to the yearly emission of almost 90,000 cars.

我現在想就 Ternium 的可持續發展計劃做一個簡短的評論。在上一季度的會議上，我提到了公司在墨西哥格雷羅和普埃布拉設施的碳捕集和使用能力擴展項目。從那時起，我們在格雷羅工廠啟動了該項目的第二階段，旨在將我們目前的產能提高 42%。這將導致墨西哥每年的二氧化碳捕獲和使用總量超過 40 萬噸，相當於每年近 9 萬輛汽車的排放量。

Let me remind you that the technology we have installed at our DRI facilities is by no means common worldwide. These DRI models are among the greenest in the world. We have also launched a project at our slab facility in Rio de Janeiro to increase the scrap yard processing capacity with the aim at reducing the CO2 emissions rate of steel making in this location. In addition, Ternium reported its decarbonization strategy to CDP for the first time in 2020 and received a big score on the topic of climate change, in line with the steel sector average. Ternium's effort to improve its safety performance were recognized by World Steel with the safety and excellence recognition.

讓我提醒您，我們在 DRI 設施中安裝的技術在世界範圍內絕非通用。這些 DRI 模型是世界上最環保的模型之一。我們還在里約熱內盧的板坯工廠啟動了一個項目，以提高廢料場的處理能力，旨在降低該地區煉鋼的二氧化碳排放率。此外，Ternium於2020年首次向CDP報告其脫碳戰略，並在氣候變化主題上獲得高分，與鋼鐵行業平均水平一致。 Ternium 為提高安全性能所做的努力獲得了世界鋼鐵公司的安全和卓越認可。

And diversity, equality and inclusion continues to be a strategic topic in Ternium's ESG agenda. In December, the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, certified Ternium for the second consequent year as one of the best places to work in Mexico for the LGBT community.

多樣性、平等和包容性仍然是 Ternium ESG 議程中的戰略主題。 12 月，人權運動基金會連續第二年將 Ternium 認證為墨西哥 LGBT 社區最佳工作場所之一。

Wrapping up, after an outstanding year in 2021, the company expects to deliver solid performance in 2022 in a business environment with gradually normalizing steel prices and margin. Ternium plans to leverage on its new hot rolling mill in Pesqueria and healthy apparent steel demand in its main market in the USMCA. This, together with positive expectation for (inaudible) in the year to come, should put the company in a position to sustain attractive returns to its shareholders and to analyze opportunity for further profitability growth initiatives.

總結，在經歷了 2021 年的出色表現之後，公司預計在鋼鐵價格和利潤率逐漸正常化的商業環境中，2022 年將取得穩健的業績。 Ternium 計劃利用其在 Pesqueria 的新熱軋廠和 USMCA 主要市場的健康明顯鋼鐵需求。這一點，再加上對來年（聽不清）的積極預期，應該使公司能夠為股東維持有吸引力的回報，並分析進一步盈利增長計劃的機會。

Okay. I'll finish my remarks here. And Pablo, please go ahead with the review of the quarter and the full year performance.

好的。我將在這裡完成我的評論。巴勃羅，請繼續審查本季度和全年業績。

Thank you, Maximo, and good morning to everybody. I'm sorry for the inconvenience we had. So let me go back to comment on the presentation that we have today and reviewing Ternium performance for the full year 2021 and then I will be analyzing the performance of the quarter.

謝謝你，Maximo，大家早上好。對於給我們帶來的不便，我深表歉意。因此，讓我回過頭來評論我們今天的演示文稿並回顧 Ternium 2021 年全年的表現，然後我將分析該季度的表現。

So if you go to Page 3 in the webcast presentation, in this slide, you can assess the magnitude by which Ternium results in 2021 outpaced those of previous years. Regarding consolidated steel shipments, volumes were higher year-over-year in 2021, although they remain below the levels achieved in 2018 and 2019. The reason behind this was significant volume of slabs shipped to third party that followed the acquisition of Ternium Brasil in September 2017, as you can see in the chart. As Ternium progressed with the integration of the slab facility in Brazil, these volumes eventually (inaudible). The increase in finished steel shipments in 2021 reflected the ramp-up of Ternium's new facilities in Colombia and Mexico and the recovery in steel demand.

因此，如果您轉到網絡廣播演示文稿的第 3 頁，在這張幻燈片中，您可以評估 Ternium 在 2021 年的業績超過前幾年的幅度。在綜合鋼材出貨量方面，儘管仍低於 2018 年和 2019 年的水平，但 2021 年的出貨量同比有所增加。其背後的原因是 9 月收購 Ternium Brasil 後向第三方出貨的大量板坯2017 年，如圖所示。隨著 Ternium 在巴西整合板坯設施的進展，這些數量最終（聽不清）。 2021 年成品鋼出貨量的增加反映了 Ternium 在哥倫比亞和墨西哥的新設施的增加以及鋼鐵需求的複蘇。

Looking forward, we believe that slab shipped to third parties will stay at current or slightly lower levels, while finished steel shipments will continue growing as we increase our presence in our main markets particularly in the USMCA region. The EBITDA margin in 2021 reflected increase in steel prices along the year. Plate and pipe steel prices reached record levels in September 2021, and then started to decline, yet the prices remained at very good levels, with enough space for healthy margin despite increase in cost.

展望未來，我們認為向第三方發貨的板坯將保持在當前或略低的水平，而成品鋼發貨量將繼續增長，因為我們增加了我們在主要市場的影響力，特別是在 USMCA 地區。 2021 年的 EBITDA 利潤率反映了全年鋼材價格的上漲。 2021年9月板材和管材價格創歷史新高，隨後開始回落，但價格仍保持在非常好的水平，儘管成本增加，但仍有足夠的健康利潤空間。

Good profitability levels and continued strength in the steel demand supports our expectation for an overall solid performance for Ternium during this year 2022. In the bottom right chart, you can review the increase in dividend during the last few years. As for the year -- the current year that we're discussing, 2021, the company has already paid an interim dividend of $0.80 per ADS in November last year. This means that if the proposed Ternium dividend of $0.026 that Maximo commented, ADS is approved at the Annual Shareholders Meeting, a net dividend of $1.8 per ADS will be paid on May 11, 2022, with record date of May 6, 2022. We expect to pay an interim dividend again in November of this year.

良好的盈利水平和鋼鐵需求的持續強勁支持我們對 Ternium 在 2022 年整體穩健表現的預期。在右下角的圖表中，您可以回顧過去幾年股息的增長。至於今年——我們正在討論的這一年，即 2021 年，該公司已經在去年 11 月支付了每股 ADS 0.80 美元的中期股息。這意味著，如果 Maximo 評論建議的 0.026 美元的 Ternium 股息，ADS 在年度股東大會上獲得批准，則將於 2022 年 5 月 11 日支付每股 ADS 1.8 美元的淨股息，記錄日期為 2022 年 5 月 6 日。我們預計於今年 11 月再次派發中期股息。

Cap review on Page 4, the cash flow generation of 2021. Cash flow from operations was the strongest ever even after factoring in a working capital increase of the same magnitude. A large [share] of the increase in working capital was related to higher steel prices, but it has an effect on the value of trade receivables and also the increase in raw material costs with an effect on the value of inventories. That is also reflected in increase in the volume of steel products related in part to the ramp-up of Ternium's new facility and also to the recovery of steel demand.

第 4 頁的上限審查，即 2021 年產生的現金流量。即使考慮到相同幅度的營運資本增加，來自運營的現金流量也是有史以來最強勁的。營運資金增加的很大一部分與鋼材價格上漲有關，但它對貿易應收賬款的價值產生影響，原材料成本的增加也對存貨價值產生影響。這也反映在鋼鐵產品數量的增加上，部分原因是 Ternium 新設施的擴建以及鋼鐵需求的恢復。

Turning now to the free cash flow. The figures for 2021 was also the strongest on record. Capital expenditures during the year remained within Ternium's usual range. The company concluded the expansion plan during the first half of last year. And for this year 2022, we expect Ternium's capital expenditure to increase a little bit compared to last year, with a base of approximately $600 million without considering any further expansion plan.

現在轉向自由現金流。 2021 年的數據也是有記錄以來最強的。年內資本支出保持在 Ternium 的正常範圍內。公司於去年上半年完成了擴產計劃。而對於 2022 年，我們預計 Ternium 的資本支出將比去年略有增加，基數約為 6 億美元，不考慮任何進一步的擴張計劃。

Let's turn now to Ternium's performance in the fourth quarter in the following page. EBITDA in the last quarter of the year was down sequentially, but remarkably strong by historical standards. The result led to net income per ADS of $5.08, also a solid performance. Looking forward, Ternium expects EBITDA to remain at healthy levels by historical standards in the first quarter of 2022. The sequential decrease reflecting lower margin partially offset by higher consolidated steel shipments.

現在讓我們看看下頁中 Ternium 在第四季度的表現。今年最後一個季度的 EBITDA 環比下降，但按歷史標準衡量卻非常強勁。結果導致每 ADS 的淨收入為 5.08 美元，這也是一個穩健的表現。展望未來，Ternium 預計 2022 年第一季度 EBITDA 將保持在歷史標準的健康水平。環比下降反映出較低的利潤率部分被較高的綜合鋼鐵出貨量所抵消。

Going out to achievements, let's analyze the performance in each of our markets on Page 6. In Mexico, you can clearly see how the situation we have already described affected volumes in the last quarter. Again, we believe that by nature, this is a short-term situation. In the Southern Region, shipments were relatively stable and the asset that market had (inaudible). And in the Other Markets region, shipments increased sequentially, mainly due to higher finished steel shipments in all of Ternium markets, partially offset by lower shipments of slabs to third party. Looking forward, we expect finished steel shipments increase in the USMCA region in the first quarter of this year. The slabs volumes, on the other hand, should decrease a little bit more in the coming period.

談到成就，讓我們在第 6 頁分析我們每個市場的表現。在墨西哥，您可以清楚地看到我們已經描述的情況如何影響上一季度的銷量。同樣，我們認為，從本質上講，這是一種短期情況。在南部地區，出貨量相對穩定，市場擁有的資產（聽不清）。在其他市場地區，出貨量環比增長，主要是由於所有 Ternium 市場的成品鋼出貨量增加，部分被第三方板坯出貨量減少所抵消。展望未來，我們預計今年第一季度 USMCA 地區的成品鋼出貨量將增加。另一方面，板坯數量在未來一段時間內應該會進一步減少。

Next page, Page 7, you can see that combining the development, we have consolidated with reshipment of 2.8 million tons in the fourth quarter, down 8% compared to the third quarter and the prior year same period. Let's analyze now steel prices and net sales. The fourth quarter, there was a light sequential increase in revenue per ton with increases in all of markets, because of the reasons that we have just described. In Mexico, contract prices sequentially increased in the fourth quarter, more than offsetting a decrease in benchmark steel prices that began back in September. While in Other Markets region, there was a positive impact of the higher participation of finished steel shipments over slabs, an environment of lower spot fuel prices in these markets.

下一頁，第7頁，您可以看到，結合發展，我們在第四季度鞏固了280萬噸的再出貨量，與第三季度和去年同期相比下降了8%。現在讓我們分析一下鋼材價格和淨銷售額。第四季度，由於我們剛剛描述的原因，隨著所有市場的增長，每噸收入出現了輕微的連續增長。在墨西哥，合同價格在第四季度環比上漲，抵消了從 9 月開始的基準鋼材價格下跌。而在其他市場地區，成品鋼出貨量高於板坯的參與度產生了積極影響，這些市場的現貨燃料價格較低。

Looking forward, we expect sequentially lower realized steel prices in the third quarter of the year, with revenue per ton reflecting recent decreases in spot prices, a partial offset of the longer-dated contracts that we present as usual with (inaudible).

展望未來，我們預計今年第三季度實現的鋼材價格將連續下降，每噸收入反映了近期現貨價格的下跌，部分抵消了我們照常提供的較長期合同（聽不清）。

Moving on to the next page, we review now the main drivers behind the sequential changes in EBITDA and net income. The EBITDA chart on top shows the impact on EBITDA of lower shipments and higher cost per ton. Costs were higher as a result of an increase in raw material and purchased slab prices that, as usual, are reflected in our cost structure with the last (inaudible) accounting methodology. These negative effects were partially offset by an increase in revenue per ton as already discussed. Just below shows that the sequential decrease in net income in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by changes in operating income and its impact on income tax.

進入下一頁，我們現在回顧 EBITDA 和淨收入連續變化背後的主要驅動因素。頂部的 EBITDA 圖表顯示了較低的出貨量和較高的每噸成本對 EBITDA 的影響。由於原材料和購買的板坯價格上漲，成本較高，這通常反映在我們採用最後（聽不清）會計方法的成本結構中。如前所述，這些負面影響被每噸收入的增加部分抵消。下圖顯示，第四季度淨利潤環比下降主要是由於營業收入的變化及其對所得稅的影響。

Now to finish the presentation, let's turn to Page 9 to review Ternium's cash flow and balance sheet performance on a quarterly basis. Cash flow operations in the fourth quarter was strong $1.1 billion as working capital increased much less than in previous quarters. There was an increase in inventory, volume of steel products in the quarter, but it was partially offset by a decrease in trade receivables. Strong cash from operations, significant increase in free cash flow in the fourth quarter with CapEx remains relatively stable. As a result, in the net cash position of $1.2 billion by the end of the year in December. Our current expectation is that Ternium will continue showing healthy cash generation during 2022.

現在結束演示，讓我們轉到第 9 頁，查看 Ternium 每季度的現金流和資產負債表表現。第四季度的現金流運營強勁，為 11 億美元，因為營運資金的增長遠低於前幾個季度。本季度庫存和鋼材數量有所增加，但部分被貿易應收賬款的減少所抵消。強勁的運營現金，第四季度的自由現金流顯著增加，資本支出保持相對穩定。因此，截至 12 月底，淨現金頭寸為 12 億美元。我們目前的預期是，Ternium 將在 2022 年繼續顯示健康的現金產生。

All right. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are now ready to take any questions that you might have. Please operator proceed with the Q&A session.

好的。非常感謝您的關注，我們現在準備好回答您可能提出的任何問題。請接線員繼續進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Caio Greiner with BTG Pactual.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Caio Greiner。

So I have 2 questions. The first one, I wanted to explore your outlook for the first quarter. So on the release, you mentioned an expectation of lower sequential EBITDA and I wanted to get a little more color on 2 topics regarding that, which is cost and realized prices. And so on costs, I was wondering if you can maybe share your expectations for the first quarter, if you still see rising cost pressuring your results and where is the pressure mostly coming from. And on prices, I mean, we do have a good visibility on your revenue per ton 1 quarter ahead. So if you could just maybe share your impressions of flat steel prices in North America, if you are already seeing any signs of a bottom anytime soon, it would be very helpful.

所以我有2個問題。第一個，我想探討您對第一季度的展望。因此，在發佈時，您提到了對較低連續 EBITDA 的預期，我想在兩個主題上獲得更多色彩，即成本和實際價格。等等成本，我想知道你是否可以分享你對第一季度的期望，如果你仍然看到成本上升給你的結果帶來壓力，壓力主要來自哪裡。在價格方面，我的意思是，我們確實可以很好地了解您未來 1 個季度的每噸收入。因此，如果您可以分享您對北美扁平材價格的印象，如果您已經看到任何即將見底的跡象，那將非常有幫助。

And my second question on capital allocation. I mean the company generated very strong free cash flow in the quarter. You guys are already at a $1 billion net cash position. And I think the main question here is, what can the company do to move back to a more efficient capital structure? We have seen your dividend proposal. I mean -- and I was wondering if this is not the time to maybe be more aggressive -- become more aggressive on cash returns considering the company is at such a solid financial position. Are there any plans to maybe have a formal written down dividend policy, maybe even based on free cash flow generation? And if this is not the case, it would be great to hear management's capital allocation plans for 2022.

還有我關於資本配置的第二個問題。我的意思是該公司在本季度產生了非常強勁的自由現金流。你們已經擁有 10 億美元的淨現金頭寸。我認為這裡的主要問題是，公司可以做些什麼來回到更有效的資本結構？我們已經看到你的股息提議。我的意思是——我想知道現在是否不是更激進的時候——考慮到公司的財務狀況如此穩健，在現金回報上變得更加激進。是否有任何計劃可能製定正式的減記股息政策，甚至可能基於自由現金流的產生？如果不是這樣，很高興聽到管理層 2022 年的資本分配計劃。

Well, thank you very much, Caio, and good morning. The first question, regarding cost, which -- I mean, the cost -- in the fourth quarter, the costs increased by roughly $100 per ton. Mainly the cost issues of that increase was slab purchases, iron ore, coke or carbon coke or metallurgic coke. As you know, the inventory put in free fall rate, so it's a little bit of luck. What we are saying for the first quarter is that we are not going to have an increase or a substantial increase in cost. It's a very small increase.

好吧，非常感謝你，Caio，早上好。第一個問題，關於成本——我的意思是成本——在第四季度，成本每噸增加了大約 100 美元。增加的成本問題主要是板坯採購、鐵礦石、焦炭或碳焦或冶金焦。如您所知，庫存以自由落體率計算，所以有點運氣。我們在第一季度所說的是，我們不會增加或大幅增加成本。這是一個非常小的增長。

Regarding prices and the quarter now, I think, I -- we talked of this in the several conference calls -- in the last 2 conference calls, we were seeing that prices, especially in the USMCA region, were going to decrease. I mean the gap between the USMCA prices and the rest of the world was very, very high. And we even talked, I think, in one of the conferences that we were going to see a new normal bottom price of around 1,000 tons. We are still seeing the same thing. I think the decrease was a little bit more steep than what we thought, to be honest, but we are seeing the same thing.

關於價格和現在的季度，我認為，我 - 我們在幾次電話會議中談到了這一點 - 在最近的兩次電話會議中，我們看到價格，特別是在 USMCA 地區，將會下降。我的意思是 USMCA 價格與世界其他地區之間的差距非常非常大。我認為，我們甚至在一次會議上談到，我們將看到新的正常底部價格約為 1,000 噸。我們仍然看到同樣的事情。老實說，我認為下降幅度比我們想像的要大一些，但我們看到的是同樣的情況。

And another issue, so it's kind of coming to the bottom, I think, in this quarter or early next quarter. I am not -- we are not seeing a decrease much longer than that. For the other -- on the other hand, prices in Europe and in Asia are starting to increase a little bit, and raw material costs are high. So I don't think there's room for decreases more than that.

還有另一個問題，所以我認為，在本季度或下個季度初，它會觸底。我不是——我們沒有看到比這更長時間的下降。另一方面——另一方面，歐洲和亞洲的價格開始略有上漲，原材料成本很高。所以我認為沒有比這更多的下降空間了。

The second question, Pablo?

第二個問題，巴勃羅？

Yes, the second question, Maximo, is related to capital allocation. Let me start with just one comment, and then I'll pass over to you for further comments. We have been -- I think that the company has been growing its intention to reinforce the distribution of dividends and allocating to shareholders part of the return that we have been generating during this year and trying to come up with something that is sustainable over time. So as we have described in our opening remarks, both Maximo and myself, we have been -- or the Board of Directors proposed a dividend that it is reflecting a dividend yield of more 6% or more. And of course, because of the extraordinary level of results, probably the payout ratio is below the traditional one that we paid, but we have also introduced biannual dividend payment.

是的，第二個問題，Maximo，與資本配置有關。讓我從一條評論開始，然後我會轉給您進一步評論。我們一直 - 我認為公司一直在增加其加強股息分配的意圖，並將我們在今年產生的部分回報分配給股東，並試圖提出隨著時間的推移可持續的東西。因此，正如我們在開場白中所描述的，Maximo 和我自己，我們已經——或者董事會提議派發股息，這反映了超過 6% 或更多的股息收益率。當然，由於業績非凡，派息率可能低於我們支付的傳統派息率，但我們也引入了半年度派息。

So an interim dividend around November, and the full dividend announced by now paid in May. So all in all, we have reconfirmed the increase of the level of dividend paid and as was mentioned during the opening remarks, is more than double the level of dividend that we had prior to the pandemic levels. And as we always mentioned, we have a track record of increasing and sustaining our dividends, and this should be the case for Ternium in the coming years.

因此，11 月左右的中期股息，現在宣布的全部股息在 5 月支付。總而言之，我們再次確認了股息水平的提高，正如開場白中提到的那樣，是我們在大流行之前的股息水平的兩倍多。正如我們一直提到的那樣，我們有增加和維持股息的記錄，未來幾年 Ternium 應該也是如此。

So this is in relationship to dividend payment. And I -- it's important for Maximo to mention on certain things in relationship to capital allocation for the coming years. Just one small thing before turning the word to Maximo is that this year also, we will have important payments that we will need to make, basically tax payments that will reflect the good results that we had last year. So it will be some need of cash that we will have for this year. But I think that the most important part is how we are envisioning capital allocation and projects for the coming year. So, Maximo, I think on this topic, you would like to comment.

所以這與股息支付有關。我 - 對於 Maximo 來說，提及未來幾年與資本配置相關的某些事情很重要。在將這個詞轉給 Maximo 之前，只有一件小事是，今年我們也將需要支付重要的款項，基本上是反映我們去年取得的良好成果的稅款。因此，今年我們將需要一些現金。但我認為最重要的部分是我們如何設想來年的資本分配和項目。所以，Maximo，我想關於這個話題，你想發表評論。

Yes. And taking your question, Caio, of capital allocation, let me comment something. As you know, and you asked you guys in the last -- about some projects of what we were thinking. And we are continuing analyzing process of growth. We think we have a very solid operation in Brazil, in Mexico and Argentina, and there's a lot of opportunity to grow. So as you may have seen in the Mexican press, yes, today, we are in the final stage of launching a new expansion initiative to complement all these capabilities we have in the Pesqueria facility. This particularly new expansion would include pickling line, a second cold rolling mill, a third galvanizing mill, and several finishing lines. The CapEx that was put in the press is around $1 billion, which is what we expected this particular CapEx to take. And this will bring us the ability to increase our value-added products that today we have with the new hot rolling mill.

是的。 Caio，關於資本分配的問題，讓我評論一下。如你所知，你在最後問過你們——關於我們正在考慮的一些項目。我們正在繼續分析增長過程。我們認為我們在巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷的業務非常穩固，並且有很多發展機會。因此，正如您在墨西哥媒體上看到的那樣，是的，今天，我們正處於啟動新擴張計劃的最後階段，以補充我們在 Pesqueria 工廠擁有的所有這些能力。這一特別新的擴建項目將包括酸洗線、第二條冷軋機、第三條鍍鋅廠和幾條精加工線。已公佈的資本支出約為 10 億美元，這是我們預期的特定資本支出。這將使我們能夠增加我們今天使用新熱軋機所擁有的增值產品。

So today, we have a 4.5 million state-of-the-art hot rolling mill. Part of that material is going to go to our own. Part of that material is going to go to the market, because we didn't have that capability. But also these new facilities will allow us to increase our value added significantly in the future. So that's another thing that I wanted to comment, because there are several projects on the pipeline. This is one of them. I hope with this, Caio, we answered the question. It was a little bit long. Sorry about that.

所以今天，我們擁有 450 萬台最先進的熱軋機。該材料的一部分將用於我們自己的。部分材料將進入市場，因為我們沒有這種能力。但這些新設施也將使我們能夠在未來顯著增加我們的附加值。這是我想評論的另一件事，因為有幾個項目正在籌備中。這是其中之一。我希望這樣，Caio，我們回答了這個問題。它有點長。對於那個很抱歉。

Your next question comes from Rodolfo De Angele of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rodolfo De Angele。

My first question is on the volumes in Mexico. My understanding is, while there was the impact of imports arriving in the fourth quarter. And Maximo, you mentioned inventory levels going higher in Mexico. So I just wanted to ask you how do you see this situation of imports and inventories into the first half of the year or maybe better, how -- when do you expect to see it normalizing?

我的第一個問題是關於墨西哥的捲。我的理解是，雖然進口到第四季度會產生影響。 Maximo，您提到墨西哥的庫存水平更高。所以我只是想問你，你如何看待今年上半年的進口和庫存情況，或者可能更好，你預計什麼時候會恢復正常？

A second question I have is just -- this is a short one. On the increase in CapEx, is that related to the fact that now with Pesqueria, you have a bigger kind of sustaining CapEx? Or is there anything in addition to that?

我的第二個問題是——這是一個簡短的問題。關於資本支出的增加，這是否與現在使用 Pesqueria 的事實有關，您有更大的維持資本支出？或者除此之外還有什麼？

And my final question is on -- still on capital allocation. If you look at just the past. The story of Ternium was marked by many important transformations, right? And the company grew to have a footprint now in the key markets in the Americas, so very present in Mexico and Brazil, which was a gap in the beginning and in other regions in Latin America, including Argentina. And when you sit down with your Board today, is that -- aside from opportunities like adding value to the Pesqueria plant. Is this kind of the final drawing, the final picture that you foresee for the company? Or aside from opportunities like increasing value at existing lines, is there anything else? Is there a new geography? Is there something else that is an ambition for the company as we look forward?

我的最後一個問題是——仍然是關於資本配置。如果只看過去。 Ternium 的故事以許多重要的轉變為標誌，對吧？該公司現在已經在美洲的主要市場上佔有一席之地，在墨西哥和巴西非常存在，這在開始時是一個空白，而在拉丁美洲的其他地區，包括阿根廷。當您今天與董事會坐下來時，除了為 Pesqueria 工廠增加價值等機會之外，是不是這樣。這是你為公司預見的最終圖嗎？或者除了增加現有生產線的價值等機會之外，還有其他機會嗎？有沒有新的地理？正如我們所期待的那樣，公司還有其他的雄心壯志嗎？

Thank you, Rodolfo. Let me start with the volumes in Mexico and try to explain it a little bit what happened and where we see 2022. As I said in my initial remarks, consumption in Mexico recovered very strongly. I mean, if you take 2020 to 2021, apparent consumption of steel increased more than 20%. And if you take apparent consumption in the U.S., which is also kind of an integrate market, increased 22%. So there's a huge increase in consumption and this increase in consumption, both in the U.S. and in Mexico happened mainly in the first 9 months of the year. So our customers and customers of our competitors, they -- we couldn't as an industry fulfill all the needs of our [customers]. I mean our ramp-up of Pesqueria started in July. And so we couldn't get that capacity on time.

謝謝你，魯道夫。讓我從墨西哥的銷量開始，並嘗試解釋一下發生了什麼以及我們看到 2022 年的情況。正如我在最初的發言中所說，墨西哥的消費復甦非常強勁。我的意思是，如果以 2020 年到 2021 年為例，鋼材的表觀消費量增長了 20% 以上。如果你考慮美國的表觀消費，這也是一個整合市場，增長了 22%。因此，美國和墨西哥的消費量都出現了巨大的增長，這種消費量的增長主要發生在今年的前 9 個月。因此，我們的客戶和競爭對手的客戶，他們——作為一個行業，我們無法滿足我們 [客戶] 的所有需求。我的意思是我們的 Pesqueria 產能提升始於 7 月。因此我們無法按時獲得該容量。

So most customers in both sides of the border in the U.S. and Mexico started importing more probably than what they needed. And there was a huge lag in imports. I mean, imports usually takes 4 to 5 months. And in some cases, because of the disruption of the supply chain, because of vessels and ports congestion, this went to 6, 7 or 8 months. So lot of the imports that were supposed to come in the second or third quarter arrived in the fourth quarter. And so that's for our customers, the way of putting inventories normal was not receiving shipments from the local suppliers. And I think this happened to all the companies in the region.

因此，美國和墨西哥邊境兩側的大多數客戶開始進口的可能性超過了他們的需求。進口也存在巨大滯後。我的意思是，進口通常需要 4 到 5 個月。在某些情況下，由於供應鏈的中斷，由於船隻和港口的擁堵，這持續了 6、7 或 8 個月。很多本應在第二季度或第三季度到來的進口到第四季度。所以對於我們的客戶來說，正常庫存的方式是不接收當地供應商的貨物。我認為這發生在該地區的所有公司身上。

Additionally, what all -- that the fourth quarter also the automotive industry has problems with semiconductors and that (inaudible) in any plan, not even in the auto companies. We are seeing that this is stabilizing. I mean, imports are coming down. In January, they were down, probably they're going to be down in February and March. In December also, they were down. And we are seeing an increase in our book orders for the first quarter and also for the second quarter, so I think all this is normalizing, and we are going to see, at least from the first -- the fourth quarter, an increase in the first quarter and the second quarter.

此外，還有什麼——第四季度汽車行業在半導體方面也存在問題，而且在任何計劃中（聽不清），甚至在汽車公司中也沒有。我們看到這種情況正在穩定下來。我的意思是，進口正在下降。在一月份，他們下降了，可能他們會在二月和三月下降。同樣在 12 月，他們也失敗了。我們看到第一季度和第二季度的預訂訂單都在增加，所以我認為這一切都在正常化，我們將看到，至少從第一季度 - 第四季度，第一季度和第二季度。

I think with that -- another issue is that both in the U.S. and Mexico are going to grow in consumption in 2022, although not at the rate of last year, but at least 4%, 5% increase in consumption. So volumes are normally starting to increase. So we are very confident that we are going to be able to attack these imports much better now that we have the capacity.

我認為，另一個問題是，美國和墨西哥的消費量都將在 2022 年增長，儘管不會以去年的速度增長，但至少增長 4%、5%。因此，交易量通常會開始增加。因此，我們非常有信心，既然我們有能力，我們將能夠更好地攻擊這些進口產品。

The second question was about CapEx. Pablo?

第二個問題是關於資本支出的。巴勃羅？

Yes. yes. The second question was in relationship to the level of normalized CapEx. So, Rodolfo, here, in fact, if you look at the CapEx in the last couple of years without taking into consideration the expansion plan that we finished beginning of last year, we are basically going with what was normalized CapEx of around $600 million per year. This is, of course, not only maintenance CapEx, as you are right, with the new facility, we will have an extra additional maintaining CapEx, but this also is including some other small projects that we usually have. And some announcement that we made in the past in the process of decarbonization or some safety initiatives that we have. So in a regular basis, $600 million is a normalized CapEx. And again, this is not included for just Maximo mentioned on the final stage of the new CapEx plan that we have.

是的。是的。第二個問題與標準化資本支出水平有關。所以，Rodolfo，事實上，如果你在不考慮我們去年年初完成的擴張計劃的情況下查看過去幾年的資本支出，我們基本上是在正常化的資本支出約為 6 億美元/年。當然，這不僅是維護資本支出，正如您所說的那樣，使用新設施，我們將有額外的額外維護資本支出，但這也包括我們通常擁有的其他一些小項目。以及我們過去在脫碳過程中發布的一些公告或我們擁有的一些安全舉措。因此，通常情況下，6 億美元是標準化的資本支出。再說一次，這不包括在我們擁有的新資本支出計劃的最後階段提到的 Maximo。

So this is -- we would say the normalized CapEx. So Maximo, the third question was in relation to capital allocation. So I'll pass it over to you.

所以這是 - 我們會說標準化的資本支出。因此，Maximo，第三個問題與資本配置有關。所以我會把它交給你。

Yes. Thank you, Pablo. And, Rodolfo, capital allocation, as I said, besides this new plant in Pesqueria, which is pointed out to make more value-added products, which I think there's a huge opportunity. The -- I mean we are seeing more opportunities. Clearly, you talk about new regions. Ternium -- are you listening? Yes. No?

是的。謝謝你，巴勃羅。還有，Rodolfo，資本配置，正如我所說，除了 Pesqueria 的新工廠，它被指出生產更多增值產品，我認為這是一個巨大的機會。 - 我的意思是我們看到了更多的機會。顯然，您談論的是新地區。 Ternium——你在聽嗎？是的。不？

I can hear you. Yes, I can hear you.

我可以聽見你。是的，我能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect. Sorry, sorry. So we think Ternium as a company that's going to be dedicated probably to Americas. I remember some conference calls ago that if we are going to seeing things in Europe or other regions. No, we are seeing a lot of opportunities, and I think we have a lot of opportunities in North America. Mexico clearly with 9 million tons of imports is a huge place where we have to grow. As I said before, in 2027, we have to be compliant in the melted and poured for the automotive industry. So we are going to be compliant to that. We announced a couple of months ago, our new investment in the U.S. for almost doubling the capacity in our Shreveport facility in Louisiana. So I mean, our growth, but it's regarding the Americas, and as I said, we see several opportunities. I hope with that I answered the question, Rodolfo.

完美的。實在抱歉。因此，我們認為 Ternium 作為一家可能致力於美洲的公司。我記得之前的一些電話會議，如果我們要在歐洲或其他地區看到事情。不，我們看到了很多機會，我認為我們在北美有很多機會。墨西哥顯然擁有 900 萬噸進口，是我們必鬚髮展的巨大地方。正如我之前所說，在 2027 年，我們必須在汽車行業的熔斷和澆注中合規。所以我們將遵守這一點。幾個月前，我們宣布了我們在美國的新投資，將我們在路易斯安那州什里夫波特工廠的產能幾乎翻了一番。所以我的意思是，我們的增長，但它與美洲有關，正如我所說，我們看到了幾個機會。我希望我回答了這個問題，魯道夫。

Your next question is from Caio Ribeiro of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Caio Ribeiro。

So my first question, moving back to cash returns. And I know that this has been a recurring theme for the company and over the past quarters. But with Ternium, net cash at $1.2 billion, that seems like a very conservative level for the company, right? And even with steel prices continuing to drop ahead, we still see the company generating significant free cash flow this year. So this net cash position should increase further. And I know you aren't looking to implement a formal dividend payout policy, but why not set a net debt target for the company, right? In that way, whatever net debt levels are delivered below that target can be interpreted as excess cash by the market. And this could potentially provide more visibility on what to expect in terms of cash returns ahead without committing to a dividend payout policy. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on that and whether you have a level of net debt in mind today that you consider a sustainable long-term target for the company. And then secondly, still on cash returns, I just wanted to hear from you whether it could make sense to announce a buyback program, especially given that your shares are trading well below historical average multiples?

所以我的第一個問題，回到現金回報。我知道這一直是公司和過去幾個季度反復出現的主題。但對於 Ternium，淨現金為 12 億美元，這對公司來說似乎是一個非常保守的水平，對吧？即使鋼鐵價格繼續下跌，我們仍然看到該公司今年產生了大量的自由現金流。因此，這種淨現金頭寸應該會進一步增加。而且我知道您不打算實施正式的股息支付政策，但為什麼不為公司設定淨債務目標，對吧？這樣，無論淨債務水平低於該目標，都可以被市場解釋為超額現金。在不承諾派息政策的情況下，這可能會為未來現金回報的預期提供更多可見性。因此，我只是想了解您對此的看法，以及您今天是否考慮到您認為該公司可持續的長期目標的淨債務水平。其次，仍然是現金回報，我只是想听聽你的意見，宣布回購計劃是否有意義，特別是考慮到你的股票交易價格遠低於歷史平均倍數？

Okay. Let me take, if you allow me, Maximo, all these questions. In relationship to cash returns, of course, there is always the possibility of doing what you said. But I believe or we believe that the company is directly or indirectly moving into that direction, but by being quite consistent in the way it distributes returns to the shareholders without having a specific scenario on percentages of net income or a targeted net debt, above that distributing what we have. This has not been what we have done in the past, because as you look at the numbers of the company, looking at the industry, as you know the industry with the volatility, the thing that they have is difficult to have, especially the target on net debt as a way to manage the company.

好的。馬克西莫，請允許我回答所有這些問題。當然，就現金回報而言，總是有可能做到你所說的。但是我相信或者我們相信公司正在直接或間接地朝著這個方向發展，但是它在向股東分配回報的方式上非常一致，而沒有關於淨收入百分比或目標淨債務的具體情況，高於這一點分配我們所擁有的。這不是我們過去做過的，因為你看公司的數字，看行業，你知道這個行業有波動，他們擁有的東西很難擁有，尤其是目標將淨債務作為管理公司的一種方式。

What the Board of Directors or the company is trying to do is that we have a way in distributing and returning to the shareholders in a sustainable way and whenever we can increase, we have do that. And now with the good results of the company and the perspective of sustainable results, of course, not at the level of 2021, we more than doubled the level of returns and dividend payments. And we are -- and we of course need to sustain these new efforts. We have never had a targeted net debt because -- well, this is not the way we believe a company like ours should work. We have -- this is not the first time that we are in a position to be net cash.

董事會或公司正在努力做的是，我們有辦法以可持續的方式分配和回報股東，只要我們可以增加，我們就會這樣做。而現在憑藉公司的良好業績和可持續結果的前景，當然，不是在 2021 年的水平上，我們的回報和股息支付水平增加了一倍以上。我們是 - 我們當然需要維持這些新的努力。我們從未有過有針對性的淨債務，因為——嗯，這不是我們認為像我們這樣的公司應該運作的方式。我們有 - 這不是我們第一次成為淨現金。

As I was mentioned in the prior question, this year, we have different payments that we need to make in relationship to not only CapEx, but also taxes, dividend. So the allocation of funds for the year, I think, are quite clear and taking also into consideration what Maximo mentioned in relationship to the CapEx plan that's in the last stage of being implemented. And we do not forget that we have also have an offer in place in to buy back shares of Ternium Argentina holdings in Ternium Mexico. So this is another transaction that is still in the table. And if this transaction moves forward will be very positive for Ternium and will require some additional cash utilization.

正如我在上一個問題中提到的，今年，我們需要支付不同的款項，不僅涉及資本支出，還涉及稅收、股息。因此，我認為今年的資金分配非常明確，並且還考慮到 Maximo 提到的與實施最後階段的資本支出計劃有關的內容。我們不要忘記，我們還提出了回購 Ternium Argentina 在 Ternium Mexico 的股份的要約。所以這是另一個仍在表中的事務。如果這項交易向前推進，將對 Ternium 非常有利，並且需要一些額外的現金使用。

So all in all, this is the way the company has been working with [bank] and we took in the past, recommendations from your side. And that's why we have been increasing and sustaining the dividend (inaudible). The issue of buybacks, which is another issue that we frequently discussed with you, clearly, is something that we never rule out as a possibility, but then we have the issues of the level of floating that the company has, and you need to factor in everything to take this into consideration. So it's something that the company can do at some point. Again, we will not rule out that. But we also need to take some other things into consideration because if we pull into that direction, we will need to do it in a manner with which we will not turn the level of floating that this company would need.

總而言之，這就是公司一直與 [bank] 合作的方式，我們過去接受了您的建議。這就是為什麼我們一直在增加和維持股息（聽不清）。回購問題，這是我們經常與您討論的另一個問題，顯然，我們從不排除這種可能性，但是我們遇到了公司的浮動水平問題，您需要考慮在一切考慮到這一點。所以這是公司在某個時候可以做的事情。同樣，我們不會排除這種可能性。但我們還需要考慮其他一些事情，因為如果我們朝著這個方向發展，我們需要以一種不會改變這家公司所需的浮動水平的方式來做。

We don't have the high number of floating. So it's something that we need to take also into consideration. So again, summarizing something that we can do at some point, but we need to take other things into consideration to sustain the good viability of the company to the market.

我們沒有大量的浮動。所以這也是我們需要考慮的事情。因此，再次總結一下我們在某個時候可以做的事情，但我們需要考慮其他事情，以維持公司在市場上的良好生存能力。

Your next question comes from Carlos De Alba of Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

Happy new year. So the question I have is a follow-up maybe to the investment programs. So this one, how much is the total investment in dollars that you expect for these finishing lines that I guess would add value to the new hot-rolled coil? And also, I guess, how does this affect in any way the timing of a potential electrical furnace in Mexico? Can you comment on that, Maximo. How are you seeing that investment to increase not only the value-added to what you currently have, which is what you just mentioned, but also increased crude steel capacity in the region? And then a couple of other ones. Just -- could you give us a color on the mix by hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, galvanized, rebar of your Ternium Mexico operation given how prices have moved, I think this is relevant. And then finally, in terms of the transaction with Ternium Argentina for their stake in Ternium Mexico. Any update on the potential timing of this transaction, when -- if everything goes well, when would this be closed?

新年快樂。所以我的問題可能是投資計劃的後續行動。那麼這個，你預計這些精整線的總投資是多少，我猜這會給新的熱軋卷增加價值？而且，我想，這對墨西哥潛在電爐的時間有什麼影響？你能評論一下嗎，馬克西莫。您如何看待這項投資不僅增加了您目前擁有的附加值，也就是您剛才提到的，而且增加了該地區的粗鋼產能？然後是其他幾個。只是 - 鑑於價格如何變動，您能否給我們介紹一下您的 Ternium 墨西哥業務的熱軋卷、冷軋卷、鍍鋅、螺紋鋼的組合顏色，我認為這是相關的。最後，就與 Ternium Argentina 的交易而言，他們在 Ternium Mexico 的股份。有關此交易的潛在時間的任何更新，何時 - 如果一切順利，何時結束？

Okay. Thank you very much for your questions, Carlos. Let me take the one -- the first one, the investment. The investment we think is $1 billion addition to this Pesqueria facility. The rationale behind this investment is that the market -- I mean, we have now the hot-rolled mill. We have the availability to produce any product in hot-rolled mill, but also the market is needing value-added products like cold rolled, pickling or galvanized. So the rationale is -- I mean, putting -- I mean, going after the imports of hot rolled -- those also were us from -- for the Ternium facility, remember. But also going to the rest of the imports, usually in automotive and industrial customers.

好的。非常感謝您的提問，卡洛斯。讓我拿第一個——第一個，投資。我們認為這家 Pesqueria 設施的投資是 10 億美元。這項投資背後的理由是市場——我的意思是，我們現在擁有熱軋廠。我們可以在熱軋廠生產任何產品，但市場也需要冷軋、酸洗或鍍鋅等增值產品。所以理由是 - 我的意思是，我的意思是，為了 Ternium 工廠進口熱軋卷 - 這些也是我們來自 - 記住。但也會進入其餘的進口，通常是汽車和工業客戶。

So it's going to be pickling line, which is roughly 500,000 tons. It will be a new PLTCM, which is around 1.5 million tons. And it will be a new galvanized line for the industry at around 500,000 tons. That's the idea -- and then finishing line for those products. That's the idea of this investment.

所以它將是酸洗線，大約50萬噸。這將是一個新的PLTCM，大約150萬噸。這將是一條50萬噸左右的行業新鍍鋅線。這就是想法——然後是這些產品的終點線。這就是這項投資的想法。

Regarding the investment in steel shop, as we discussed in the past, that's something that we -- this plant is not putting a stop for that plant or anything. We are still analyzing with addition, the need to supply our automotive customers in 2027 with melted and poured in the region. So we have to comply with them. We still have time, and that's why we are taking our time to be, which is the best way of complying that or supplying that. But I mean, there are 2 different plants, and we are launching this one in the next few weeks.

關於鋼鐵廠的投資，正如我們過去討論的那樣，這是我們的事情——這家工廠不會為那家工廠或任何東西停下來。此外，我們仍在分析是否需要在 2027 年為我們的汽車客戶提供該地區的熔化和澆注。所以我們必須遵守它們。我們還有時間，這就是為什麼我們要花時間去做，這是遵守或提供這一點的最佳方式。但我的意思是，有兩種不同的工廠，我們將在接下來的幾週內推出這一種。

Timing of the Argentina transaction, Pablo?

阿根廷交易的時機，巴勃羅？

Yes. Okay, Maximo. Carlos, the transaction moves through the process that needs to be achieved. But the -- we haven't yet the confirmation from Ternium Argentina, Board of Directors that needs to recommend the transaction that at the very end, will need to be approved by the shareholders of Ternium Argentina. And this will require shareholder meeting that usually or takes around a month after the approval or a recommendation from the Board of Directors. And then after that, because of the complexity of the transaction and the different steps that transaction is having, it would take an additional 15 to 30 days for completion.

是的。好的，馬克西莫。 Carlos，交易通過需要實現的過程進行。但是 - 我們還沒有得到 Ternium Argentina 董事會的確認，該董事會需要推薦最終需要得到 Ternium Argentina 股東批准的交易。這將需要在董事會批准或建議後通常或大約需要一個月的時間召開股東大會。在那之後，由於交易的複雜性和交易的不同步驟，需要額外的 15 到 30 天才能完成。

So if the transaction is, let's say, approved at some point in the next month, it will take in total around 2 months for this transaction to be fully performed. But we need the first step, which is an important one, is to have the recommendation from Ternium Argentina Board of Directors. So -- and this is something that the Board of Directors of Ternium Argentina did not yet take, and they are still considering the proposal. So we are expecting to receive comments from them. And from there, this is the timing the transaction can take. I don't know if that was clear, Carlos?

因此，如果交易在下個月的某個時間點獲得批准，那麼這筆交易總共需要大約 2 個月的時間才能完全執行。但我們需要第一步，也是很重要的一步，是得到 Ternium Argentina 董事會的推薦。所以-- 這是Ternium Argentina 董事會尚未採取的措施，他們仍在考慮該提案。因此，我們期待收到他們的意見。從那裡開始，這是交易可以採取的時間。我不知道這是否清楚，卡洛斯？

That's fine, Pablo. So just basically most likely the second quarter, right?

沒關係，巴勃羅。所以基本上很可能是第二季度，對吧？

Yes. Most likely -- it's approved, most likely in the second quarter.

是的。最有可能 - 它已獲得批准，最有可能在第二季度獲得批准。

Yes. And Carlos, sorry, you asked also about the share of products in Mexico, I think. So if you took in [years] numbers, rebar (inaudible) long product is about 1.2 million tons. Then the capacity of galvanized and painting products, it's around -- I mean, 2.4 million to 2.5 million galvanized. And then 0.8 million tons of prepainted products, but they use galvanized, those prepainted products, and the rest is cold rolled and hot rolled.

是的。卡洛斯，對不起，我想你還問了墨西哥的產品份額。因此，如果您計算 [年] 數據，螺紋鋼（聽不清）長材產品約為 120 萬噸。然後是鍍鋅和噴漆產品的產能，大約是——我的意思是，240 萬到 250 萬個鍍鋅。然後是80萬噸彩塗產品，但是他們用鍍鋅的，那些彩塗產品，剩下的就是冷軋和熱軋。

And the total capacity just in Ternium Mexico is around what 8 million tons or 9 million tons.

僅 Ternium 墨西哥的總產能約為 800 萬噸或 900 萬噸。

Yes, the total capacity of hot rolled today -- of course, we are in the ramping up of the hot rolled mill in Pesqueria. It's -- the cold rolled capacity is 10 million tons and rebars and wire rod, 1.2 million tons of hot rolled.

是的，今天的熱軋總產能——當然，我們正在擴大 Pesqueria 的熱軋廠。其——冷軋能力為1000萬噸，螺紋鋼和盤條，熱軋120萬噸。

And is it fair to assume that you aim to maximize, run at full capacity, the painting line, the galvanizing line and then whatever you cannot use there, you produce cold-rolled coil?

假設你的目標是最大化、滿負荷運行、塗裝線、鍍鋅線，然後你不能在那裡使用的任何東西，你生產冷軋卷，這是否公平？

Exactly. We usually run full capacity (inaudible) as line. Galvanized also supply the full capacity of prepainting products. Cold rolled capacity is around 4 million tons, a little bit less than 4 million tons. We used to run the -- we, most of the time, run the cold rolled mills at full capacity. And today, we are aiming to run the Pesqueria mill at full capacity, to run the long products facilities at full capacity, to run the mini mill at full capacity. And the hot strip mill in Churubusco is the 1 that is going to not be run at full capacity, at least in the year -- in this year, but we are thinking that in 2023 or 2024, should be running at least very close to full capacity.

確切地。我們通常將滿容量（聽不清）作為線路運行。鍍鋅還提供全部能力的預塗產品。冷軋產能在400萬噸左右，略低於400萬噸。我們過去常常運行——我們大部分時間都在滿負荷運行冷軋機。而今天，我們的目標是讓 Pesqueria 工廠滿負荷運轉，長材工廠滿負荷運轉，小型磨機滿負荷運轉。 Churubusco 的熱軋帶鋼廠是第一個不會滿負荷運行的工廠，至少在今年——今年，但我們認為在 2023 年或 2024 年，至少應該非常接近名額已滿。

Your next question is from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the Pesqueria comments and understand a little better. First off, I wanted to ask you about how you see the addressable market of that mill. There's been definitely a Ternium tons shipped into the U.S. makes perfect sense. The U.S. has shipped to Mexico. But just thinking, is that the addressable market, the entire North American market? Or is this just kind of a temporary situation until the downstream is expanded? And then how do you think about the full production? In the past you talked about ramping up gradually, but I just heard you say full capacity. Is that 4.5 million, is that a little less that you're [shutting]? Just wanted to clarify that. And then finally, if you could just discuss the timing of when we should be expecting some of these lines to come on and the CapEx to come through?

我只是想稍微跟進一下 Pesqueria 的評論並更好地理解。首先，我想問您如何看待該工廠的潛在市場。絕對有 1 噸 Ternium 噸運往美國，這是完全合理的。美國已運往墨西哥。但只是想一想，這是潛在的市場，整個北美市場嗎？或者這只是一種暫時的情況，直到下游擴大？然後你如何看待完整的製作？過去你說的是逐漸增加，但我只是聽你說滿負荷。那是 450 萬，是不是比你 [關閉] 少一點？只是想澄清一下。最後，如果你能討論一下我們應該期待其中一些線路出現和資本支出通過的時間？

Okay. Thank you very much. Timna, I try to answer all of them. I mean cost projects are thinking mainly for the Mexican market and some exports to the U.S. But our main objective is the Mexican market. As I said, if you take 2021, Mexico imported 9 million tons -- I don't know if you hear me well, because I'm hearing some noises.

好的。非常感謝你。 Timna，我試著回答所有的問題。我的意思是成本項目主要考慮墨西哥市場和一些對美國的出口，但我們的主要目標是墨西哥市場。正如我所說，如果以 2021 年為例，墨西哥進口了 900 萬噸——我不知道你是否聽清楚，因為我聽到了一些噪音。

I hear you. I've put myself on mute since I'm in the conference. Yes, I hear you.

我聽到你了。自從我參加會議以來，我已將自己設為靜音。是的，我聽到了。

Okay. Perfect. Sorry. So Mexico imports 9 million tons of flat products. Of those, roughly 4 million are hot-rolling products, 2.5 million galvanized, and the rest cold rolled basically. So there's a huge market for us, and that's the main aiming of that. U.S.A., for us, it's also an important market, although we are not seeing that we are going to take our investment case to export everything to the U.S. But some of our products are going there, and we expect it to grow a little bit there, probably some of the U.S. mill wanted to grow a little bit in Mexico.

好的。完美的。對不起。因此，墨西哥進口了 900 萬噸扁平材。其中熱軋產品約400萬件，鍍鋅250萬件，其餘基本為冷軋。所以我們有一個巨大的市場，這就是我們的主要目標。美國，對我們來說，它也是一個重要的市場，雖然我們沒有看到我們會採取投資案例將所有東西出口到美國。但是我們的一些產品正在走向那裡，我們預計它會在那裡增長一點，可能一些美國工廠想在墨西哥發展一點點。

Regarding the second question, we are expecting the hot strip mill in Pesqueria to be running at full capacity, at least at 80% of utilization, which is a normal thing for this around July, August, September. But as I said, we were going to decrease a little bit the production of the Churubusco mill. In overall, we should increase hot strip mill production in 2022 by around 1.8 million tons. Of that, some is going to the market and some is going to replace our imports from Japan. So I think that's the second question.

關於第二個問題，我們預計 Pesqueria 的熱軋帶鋼廠將滿負荷運行，至少達到 80% 的利用率，這在 7 月、8 月、9 月左右是正常的。但正如我所說，我們將稍微減少 Churubusco 工廠的產量。總體而言，2022年熱軋帶鋼產量應增加180萬噸左右。其中，一些將進入市場，一些將取代我們從日本進口的產品。所以我認為這是第二個問題。

And the third question, Timna, sorry, I forgot.

第三個問題，Timna，對不起，我忘了。

Yes, It was just about the timing of the investments and when we should start thinking about the additional value add to come through to greater average realized selling prices?

是的，這只是關於投資的時機，我們何時應該開始考慮增加平均實現銷售價格的附加價值？

Yes. As I said, -- when I answered the first question, I think, was Caio. We are in the final stage of this. We didn't have yet the Board approval, although we discussed it in deeply yesterday and it's probably going to be approved shortly. And we expect that this is coming online in around 3 years. I think some of them are coming a little bit earlier and some of them probably because of the equipment delivery a little bit later, but roughly 3 years.

是的。正如我所說，當我回答第一個問題時，我認為是 Caio。我們正處於最後階段。我們還沒有獲得董事會的批准，儘管我們昨天進行了深入討論，並且可能很快就會獲得批准。我們預計這將在大約 3 年內上線。我認為其中一些來得早一點，而其中一些可能是因為設備交付得晚了一點，但大約是 3 年。

Your next question is from Isabella Vasconcelos of Bradesco BBI.

您的下一個問題來自 Bradesco BBI 的 Isabella Vasconcelos。

I have just one question. I think most of the points have already been addressed. But also in terms of capital allocation, and I had some connection issues, so hopefully, I'm not making you repeat yourself. But just to understand, it seems that you're going to the organic growth line in terms of future capacity, but are you analyzing inorganic growth opportunities in the Americas, Brazil or even in Mexico and the U.S.? That's my question.

我只有一個問題。我認為大部分問題已經得到解決。但在資本分配方面，我遇到了一些聯繫問題，所以希望我不會讓你重複自己。但只是為了理解，就未來產能而言，您似乎將走向有機增長線，但您是否正在分析美洲、巴西甚至墨西哥和美國的無機增長機會？那是我的問題。

Thank you. Yes. Thank you, Isabella. As we always said, we are always analyzing opportunities, and we have a track record of doing this in a very, how I said, responsible way. If you ask today, we have nothing special in our pipeline today, but these things arouse, and we always are analyzing these opportunities.

謝謝你。是的。謝謝你，伊莎貝拉。正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們一直在分析機會，而且我們一直以一種非常負責任的方式來做這件事。如果你今天問，我們今天的管道沒有什麼特別的，但是這些事情引起了，我們一直在分析這些機會。

Your next question is from Leonardo Correa.

你的下一個問題來自萊昂納多·科雷亞。

Thanks for the follow-up here. Okay. So just a quick one for me. I think most of the issues have been addressed. Thanks for all the color and visibility guys. Just on -- still on the topic of re-rating, right, we've been seeing -- I mean, we've been covering the company for a while, and it's always a similar level, which is highly depressed. Now we're going through a global movement, which is a significant derating. So Ternium is not alone, right? We see guys like Mittal and others, trading at 40%, 50% discounts. I mean you guys announced a move in December, which was somewhat unexpected, right, the buyout of minorities in Mexico. I mean what else is on the agenda, if you can elaborate a bit?

感謝您的跟進。好的。所以對我來說只是一個快速的。我想大部分問題都已經解決了。感謝所有顏色和知名度的傢伙。剛剛——仍然是重新評級的話題，對，我們已經看到了——我的意思是，我們已經報導了一段時間的公司，而且它總是一個相似的水平，這是非常沮喪的。現在我們正在經歷一場全球性的運動，這是一個顯著的降級。所以 Ternium 並不孤單，對吧？我們看到像米塔爾和其他人這樣的人，以 40%、50% 的折扣進行交易。我的意思是你們在 12 月宣布了一項舉措，這有點出乎意料，對，收購墨西哥的少數族裔。我的意思是議程上還有什麼，如果你能詳細說明一下？

I know that the dividends and buyback story is quite clear to me from what you guys have been indicating. But is there anything else on the potential corporate simplification still that's pending? Or there's always the issue of Siderar in Argentina, right, where there is a minority stake, I think, from the pension funds, which could be bought out. The dual listing issue has been historically also a pending issue. I mean, is there anything that you guys have been considering at this point to try to change the situation on the company.

我知道，從你們所表明的情況來看，我很清楚股息和回購的故事。但是，關於潛在的公司簡化還有什麼其他未決的事情嗎？或者在阿根廷總是有 Siderar 的問題，對，我認為，那裡有少數股權，來自養老基金，可以被買斷。雙重上市問題在歷史上也是一個懸而未決的問題。我的意思是，你們在這一點上是否一直在考慮試圖改變公司的狀況。

Let me take this question, Maximo. We have different ideas of different possibilities. The ones that we consider feasible are the ones that we are trying to achieve. Here, we are not in relationship to the transaction in Argentina is trying to have 100% of the holding of Ternium Mexico by Ternium and not having part of that holding directly owned by Ternium Argentina. So this will very much simplify the corporate structure of Ternium, if this transaction moves forward. You know that is something that we have been discussing many times. After and if this transaction is completed, Ternium corporate structure will be basically what we would like to have. We have been simplifying the corporate structure for many, many years now.

讓我回答這個問題，馬克西莫。我們對不同的可能性有不同的想法。我們認為可行的是我們正在努力實現的目標。在這裡，我們與阿根廷的交易無關，該交易試圖讓 Ternium 擁有 100% 的 Ternium Mexico 股權，而不是 Ternium Argentina 直接擁有的部分股權。因此，如果這筆交易繼續進行，這將大大簡化 Ternium 的公司結構。你知道這是我們多次討論過的事情。如果這筆交易完成後，Ternium 公司結構將基本上是我們想要的。多年來，我們一直在簡化公司結構。

Since we started growing internationally, we acquired many different companies. So it has been a constant work to simplify the corporate structure. And this step was an important step for us. And we think that we have the chance and the possibility of achieving that, but we would need to see if this is happening. We have been analyzing and of course, we have been discussing with a lot of you in this call, these alternatives. The dual listing, unfortunately, it's not an opportunity at the moment, because of the reason that you know. And just [briefly], now probably the only place where we can achieve that in Argentina, and clearly, it's not the path to follow at the moment.

自從我們開始國際化發展以來，我們收購了許多不同的公司。因此，簡化公司結構一直是一項持續的工作。這一步對我們來說是重要的一步。我們認為我們有機會和可能實現這一目標，但我們需要看看這是否正在發生。我們一直在分析，當然，在這次電話會議中，我們一直在與你們中的很多人討論這些替代方案。不幸的是，由於您知道的原因，雙重上市目前不是機會。只是[簡單地說]，現在可能是我們在阿根廷唯一可以實現這一目標的地方，顯然，這不是目前要遵循的道路。

But we are open, as we have discussed in the past, the idea of moving from 1 yearly dividend to at least twice a year. The payment, we already did that and we did that. So we are analyzing alternatives, possibilities. And you need to see when are these alternatives feasible or not. So we are open and we have been always trying to analyze, which is the best way for us to have a better not only corporate structure, but a better relationship with all our stakeholders. So -- we are open. We are open. We are always analyzing alternatives, but we need to see if that is achievable or not. So up to now, we are, at this point, we think that we are moving in the right direction and anything that help in the future, clearly, we will keep analyzing.

但是，正如我們過去所討論的，我們對從每年一次的股息轉變為每年至少兩次的想法持開放態度。付款，我們已經做到了，我們做到了。所以我們正在分析替代方案和可能性。你需要看看這些替代方案何時可行或不可行。所以我們是開放的，我們一直在嘗試分析，這是我們不僅擁有更好的公司結構，而且與所有利益相關者建立更好關係的最佳方式。所以——我們是開放的。我們是開放的。我們一直在分析替代方案，但我們需要看看這是否可以實現。所以到目前為止，在這一點上，我們認為我們正在朝著正確的方向前進，任何對未來有幫助的事情，顯然，我們將繼續分析。

Your next question comes from Caio Greiner of BTG Pactual.

您的下一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Caio Greiner。

My question has been answered.

我的問題已經得到解答。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to the CEO for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉給 CEO 以結束髮言。

Okay. Thank you very much to everybody for the interest and for the very good questions. I really appreciate your participation. And as usual, if you have any additional questions, any feedback, please don't hesitate to call us. I see you in around 3 months in the next conference call. Have a nice day. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝大家的興趣和非常好的問題。我非常感謝您的參與。和往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題或反饋，請隨時致電我們。我會在大約 3 個月後的下一次電話會議上見到你。祝你今天過得愉快。非常感謝你。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。