Ternium SA (TX) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ternium Second Quarter Conference Call. I will now hand today's call over to Sebastian Marti, please go ahead.

Good morning. And thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Marti, I am Ternium's Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director. Ternium released yesterday financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2022. This call is complimentary to that presentation.

Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, Maximo Vedoya; and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information, and the actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and on page 2 in today's webcast consultation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

Thank you, Sebastian, and good morning everyone. Thank you very much for your participation today in our conference call. Ternium reported strong results for the second quarter, with $1.2 billion adjusted EBIDTA, and a margin of more than $400 per ton.

Oops. Hello? I don't know if everybody's hearing.

Sorry, I will continue. With a margin of more than $400 per ton. These results were similar to those obtained in the first quarter of the year representing a solid start for 2022.

Over the past 12 months, Ternium's solid competitive position and the outstanding effort of its people enable it to take advantage of a very attractive business conditions. In this period, we generate $5.8 billion of adjusted EBIDTA, $1.9 billion of free cash flow, and returned to shareholders over $500 million in dividend payments. Looking ahead, we expect increased volatility, volatility, sorry, in the business environment. In the first quarter, Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused an upsurge in raw material and steel prices. But over the last few months, higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, a consequent monetary tightening, and the effect on global supply chains of China's COVID-19 restrictions drove raw material and steel prices to a significant decrease.

Looking ahead, I believe the main steel business variables are today closer to more sustainable level. So we could see a stabilization during the next couple of months. Having said this, volatility will persist for some time, as there continues to be a considerable level of uncertainty related to the factors I've just mentioned.

Let's turn now to a review of our main markets. In Mexico, the industrial market remains relatively healthy, with different dynamics in the different industries. The auto industry continue to suffer from supply chain disruptions affecting the availability of semiconductors and other inputs for its production process. We have been expecting these disruptions to decrease for several quarters already, but they seem to be harder to solve than what most people expected. And recent China's lockdowns continue to affect these global supply chains. On the other hand, there is significant unsatisfied end user demand in this industry. So when these procurement problems are finally worked through, there will be an opportunity for us to increase shipments to OEMs. In addition, we have been making progress with product certification in our new hot rolling (inaudible), something that will enable us to gain market share in this sector.

Other manufacturing industries like HVAC and electrical motors are doing well. On the other hand, the white goods industry is slowing down production rates as a result of accumulation of end product inventory in the value chains. Finally, the commercial market in Mexico, (inaudible) by construction activity, is currently having weak apparent demand due to a destocking process resulting from the decrease in steel prices over the last few months, as well as the impact on end customers of higher interest rate and inflation. Looking forward, the low level of inventories in the market is going to need a restocking that will probably happen during the second (inaudible).

Moving now to Argentina, steel demand in the market remains at similar levels to those of the last few quarters, despite higher level of volatility in the country's macroeconomic environment. Most of the sectors in Argentina continue to show good demand, like agribusiness sector, the auto industry, the white goods industry, and the energy sector, but the uncertainty regarding the country's macro situation has increased since our last conference call. So steel demand further on may reflect substantial macroeconomic volatility.

I would like now to share our progress on some sustainability topics. Last quarter, Ternium released its annual sustainability report. In this new edition, we will reinforce our reporting framework by adding SASB standards for iron and steel producers, and also the recommendations of TCFD. We believe this is a step forward in the sustainability disclosure of our company in line with current discussions on the matter. We have also been working on improving the tools we use for the management of CO2 emissions in our company.

Recently, we completed the assessment of Ternium's greenhouse green gases emission under the GAG protocol accounting standard. This is complimentary to reporting of CO2 emissions and the world steel methodology, which has been carried out over the last few years. With the application of the GAG protocol standards, we are extending the assessment boundaries to the whole company. This methodology also provides enhanced emissions management capabilities down to each production line. It is important to note that we have also performed for the first time a third party verifications of Ternium emission metrics.

Another relevant topic for Ternium is safety. A few weeks ago, we had our annual safety day event with the participation of employees and managers from all the countries where we operate. It is an opportunity to share the results of safety programs in place, our best practices around the organization, and future actions plans. Safety is a key issue in the company's agenda, and we are encouraged by the results we are getting so far, as our lost time injury frequency rate during the first half of the year has been the lowest ever.

Wrapping up, we expect to keep showing healthy shipments over the following quarters. On the other hand, the normalization of steel business variables will bring a decrease of margin to more sustainable levels. I am positive Ternium is well positioned to show distinctive probability once steel business variables stabilize, and all recent changes to steel prices and raw materials cost goes through our books. The strength of Ternium's balance sheet and our enhanced competitive position will enable Ternium to navigate the expected volatility in the markets. Further on, we anticipate cash generation will remain robust as we should (inaudible) a good share of the working capital investments made when input cost and steel prices were significantly higher than they currently are. Okay. With that, I stop here and ask Pablo to go ahead with the review of our quarter's performance.

Thanks, Maximo. Thanks everybody for participating in our call. As you will see in today's webcast presentation, Ternium continues showing very strong results in the second quarter of the year, similar to those records in the first quarter.

Let's start by looking at Page 3 in the presentation with adjusted EBITDA and its earnings. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was at $1.2 billion, and margins of 28% or $414 per ton. We expect lower margins going forward as they start to reflect the significant decrease in the steel benchmark prices over the last 3 months. Although market prices for raw material has also been decreased lately, we expect cost per ton to increase in the third quarter as the company will consume raw material purchase in previous months at higher cost. The income in the period reached $936 million, or $4.07 per (inaudible), solid by historical standard, reflecting the strong operating performance.

Let's turn now to Page 4, to review steel shipments. In Mexico, the volumes were 1.7 million tons in the second quarter of the year, increasing sequentially and slightly below the level achieved in the prior year's second quarter. In the southern region, shipments in the second quarter were 600,000 tons, slightly higher sequentially and down from a year over year basis. In the other market regions, shipments were 376,000 tons in the second quarter, lower sequentially. On a year over year basis, the decreasing the volume of (inaudible) was mostly offset by higher finished steel shipment in Ternium's market in the region. Ternium has been gradually increasing the integration of a [slab] facility in Brazil, (inaudible) finishing facilities mainly in Mexico, Argentina. As you can see in the top right half (inaudible).

In the next Page #5, you can see that combining this development, we arrive at consolidated achievement of 3 million tons in the second quarter, stable sequentially and a little down versus the prior year second quarter. Looking forward into the third quarter, we anticipate to remain relatively stable. Moving on to steel prices, Ternium's revenue per ton the second quarter increased slightly sequentially and advanced substantially on a year over year basis. As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate the decrease in (inaudible) steel prices in the third quarter, as steel prices have decreased significantly, and this will be reflected by the larger set of contract prices in Mexico.

Let's now review on Page 6, demand drivers behind the changes in adjusted EBITDA and net income. There was slight sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, reflecting higher realized steel prices in Mexico and Argentina, partially offset by higher cost. Labor cost increasing the second quarter, mainly in connection with Ternium's Mexico employees profit sharing. This together with increase in energy cost was partially offset by lower (inaudible). Let me remind you that we use (inaudible) sales accounting to value our inventories. So it takes up to 5 months to reflect in our financial changes in lab and raw material prices. Looking forward, Ternium expects adjusted EBITDA to decrease sequentially in the third quarter, reflecting lower margin and relatively stable (inaudible).

The chart at the bottom shows a sequential increase in the second quarter, mainly driven by better financial results. This improvement, primarily reflected a higher value of financial instruments, while income tax increase sequentially as the result of slightly better results and a higher effective tax rate.

Let's turn now to Page 7. There was no cash for operations in the second quarter, mainly as a result of a working capital increase of $681 million, and income tax cash payments of over $600 million. Tax payment in the period includes an increase in above payments for fiscal year 2022 in Mexico, and the payment of their standing tax balance for fiscal year 2021 still in (inaudible) both as a result of strong earnings records in 2021.

Increasing working capital include the significant impact of investors' values of higher steel and raw material cost as well as slightly higher volumes. Free cash flow in the second quarter of 2022 was a negative $166 million at the CapEx of $161 million. This together with the $353 billion paid in May, resulted in a reaction of turning net cash position to one billion dollars by the end of June.

Now in the finance Slide #8, let's review our cashflow performance on a yearly basis. Cash flow operation in the first half of this year was $687 million. After deducting income tax payments of $1.5 billion, working capital increase of $350 million.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, our expectation is that (inaudible) will show healthy cash generation based on the CapEx estimate for the year of our product, so maybe $600 million increase in income tax payment compared to also of the first half, and a reaction of working capital as a price inflation of steel and raw material flow through return and database. Okay. With this, we finish our prepared remarks. Thank you very much again for your time and attention. And now we are ready for the questions. Please operator, proceed with the Q&A session.

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

Wanted to ask volumes a few questions if I could. First one was, just looking at the volumes down year over year in Mexico, it still begs the question of where the Pesqueria volumes are showing up, or if it's just offsetting existing tonnage. And should we expect that to continue to ramp up as you get qualified at any timeframe there? The other question is just on the EBITDA guidance of a more sustainable level. I was hoping it to see if you could help quantify that a little bit better. If we look at the 5 years prior to COVID, the average has been about $150 bucks a ton, but of course the last couple years has been closer to $400 bucks a ton. So any thoughts on the gap between those 2 levels would be helpful? Thank you.

Thank you, Timna. Pesqueria is running between 80 and 85% of capacity, which is very high. And to be honest, running very good. But as I think I mentioned in the last conference call, the problem are the market in Mexico, especially the commercial market, where we have a decrease in apparent demand because of what we are talking. So the issue with the volumes is that the other (inaudible), the one into the (inaudible) is running lower much lower than capacity. The other issue is, the certification process of all this new steel takes time. And all the automotive certifications take at least one year. So we are starting to see now these new products starting to flow through our customers. But this is a process that will take at least one year or more ramping up every quarter.

So that's the main issue. Regarding EBITDA, your second part of the question, what do we need with the most sustainable level? I think, and I would like then Pablo put more color to this, but if you remember Timna, we have always put our objective of EBITDA ratio before these last almost 2 years, let's say, between 15 and 20%. That was normal and higher compared to most of our peers. I think this is the outlook. We are looking at this range for the third quarter, and probably what we will be doing in the future, especially in the next year, is that we will have to increase that objective that we have and put the bar a little bit higher of this range between 15% and 20%. So I don't know, Pablo, do you want to put more clarification into this?

Okay, Maximo, you have already answered basically the question. But let me add some color to it. So yes, clearly what Maximo was saying is what we're expecting entering into this second part of the year. We are looking, or we are expecting, of course there is uncertainty that Maximo mentioned in prices especially, but we should be returning during this period to the levels that we had before the pandemic.

But I think it's important also what Maximo mentioned, which is that going forward or entering to 2023, or if you want, depending on your expectations, when we have a more normalized level of prices, and especially raw materials, the term after all the investment that we did at the ramp up of the new Pesqueria facility, we should be targeting margins that are at the upper side of the range, or even a little lower of that range. So I think that's the main point to pass to you, that clearly there will be a reaction in margins during the next couple of quarters. And then we should be returning not only to the normal level that we used to have, but approaching or targeting a little higher one.

So the guidance of the higher end of the range would be a function of the investments that Ternium's made in Downstream, the vertical integration in Mexico, and some of the other company specific actions? Is that what you're saying?

Yes, exactly, exactly. You're right. Of course, taking into consideration the prices of the final product, that you never know where we did, but this is clearly what you have said. It's clearly we are what we are looking for and what we are targeting.

Your next question is from a line of Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.

Just 2 quick questions from me. Just looking at the Mexican steel market at the moment, I mean, we've obviously seen some new capacity coming online in the US, and some of that volume was reportedly destined for Mexico. Are you starting to see increased import volumes or increased price pressure from some of the volumes that is coming in from the US into Mexico? That's the first question. And maybe the second question, if you could just give us your updated thoughts on potentially expanding within the EAF meal capacity, that would be great. Thank you very much.

Okay. Thank you, Andreas. Yes, Mexican, the increase in import, we are not seeing it. To honest, if you see the imports on the Mexican market, and let's talk about flat products, which are the biggest part of the imports in Mexico, there was a huge increase last year between, I think it was between March, April, October, November when prices were going up and our steel mill, our (inaudible) mill was not still functioning. And then prices started to decrease, and those volumes come, and I mean, the lead time of imported material are very high.

So it was a long several months of the arrival of those imports. Today we are seeing that imports are coming down from that peak. And to be honest, they are a little bit lower than what were they were in 2020. I think our market share is going up, or that's at least the numbers we have. So we are not seeing that problem, let's say, in Mexico. At least not yet. But again, we are seeing our customers very eager to buy the material from us, and the market share increasing. The second question was? Sorry, Andreas.

Just an update, or your updated thinking on expanding on the EAF or (inaudible) side?

Yes. No I mean, as I told you, last contract call, it's a very complicated project. But we are still doing all the engineering, and we should go forward to have US NCA compliance for the automotive industry in 2027, for sure. So we are going. I mean, we are still in the process of doing all the engineering on the site and everything. So still in track.

Your next question is from the line of Alfonso Salazar with Scotiabank.

So I have 2. The first one is, I know that we have been asking this for years now, but if you can comment anything about how Ternium's going to unlock value and try to be really behind all the things that we've seen in the share price, and very related to steel prices. So anything that you can point toward recognizing the share price. And the second is regarding the auto industry and some trends that we are seeing today. For example, there is this trend in which OEM's are reducing in the menu, affordable cars.

They are basically disappearing from the menu, and they are focusing more on SUV's, premium vehicles. And in that regard and considering that there are EV's coming and the price tag is going to be much higher, it's unclear to see why auto sales will return to past levels. And against this backdrop, I want to understand what is the strategy of OEM's increasing the use of high strength steel, and how it compares with aluminum auto parts. Aluminum is very attractive for OEM's to produce autos using more aluminum. So just want to understand what is the strategy there, and how do you see this market going forward for Ternium?

Okay. Alfonso, let me take the first question that you make. As you know, we have been discussing this for a long period of time. What we are seeing today, and then we can reflect on the future is that, probably taking out some of the US companies. The rest of the steel sector is having clearly a low multiple on reflecting the value of the companies. And probably this is a consequence of the re-adjustment that Maximo and myself, we have mentioned during the opening remark, where we are seeing, as Timna mentioned also during her question, that there will be an adjustment on margins to probably a region closer to what we used to have prior to the pandemic after having a couple of years of very or extremely good margins in the companies.

And since we are still having or reflecting the multiple with an VBA, that is not yet reflecting that new level we are seeing multiples that are lower than the historical numbers. So on itself, this multiple should recover at some point. But also, if you look at the share price of 30, which I think is your specific question, it is all relatively well, in comparison to our peers. And clearly, we have been taking certain actions in the past to try to enhance, to support the value of our company. And this has been very clear. We have discussed also in the past, dividing the DD and payment into parts or increasing or significantly increasing the DD and payment in relationship to the yield of the pay range, which now are quite high, in comparison to other companies.

We continue to work. In our France, we have tried to perform our operation as team in order to review or simplify our corporate structure. We have not been able yet successful to that. But what I'm trying to say is that we have different alternatives. And if we find a way to show that the company value is higher to what we have today, we are trying to do that. And we are trying to show the market that, not only we care, but we work in that direction.

Of course, there are some things that will be difficult, because we have some compact that, or characteristics are different from our peers. Like the diversity of geography that we have, that will be, in some cases, to be a plus, but in some else, will be a minus. So we have that issue also to take into consideration, but in general, first, they must commit to point and telling will continue to perform and to do the things that we have been doing up to now in order to try to increase our share value.

Okay. So let me take the second part and the auto industry, and it was a very -- I mean, there's several things in your questions. The first thing to say, I think the OEMs, and this is from our knowledge, but again, probably the automotive can speak better. They are putting more luxury or SUV, because of the restrictions they have. And clearly, they preferred selling SUV and luxury car and more luxury cars that have higher margins than producing the other type of cars. But it's more of a restriction of all these inputs and semiconductors. So they choose to do the higher margin products, because they don't have enough capacity, because of these restrictions. I think that's the mobile. If you see the automotive market, total production of automotive in the world, I'm saying, but it's similar in every market.

It was around 103 million units. That's the total automotive production of the world. Last year, it was final 78 million units. Although the same forecast of them was to do similar. And the demand that we see in the market was to do similar 2017. This year is 82 million units. Again, these difference is the restrictions are not the demand. I think in the U.S. and in Mexico, you see it also. In Brazil, we are seeing it also. There are not inventory in the dealers. There's no inventory. So I think that, once these supply chain issues, which, as I said in my initial remarks, has seemed much harder to solve than what everybody thinks, including the OEMs.

So that's the first part. Aluminum versus steel. I don't see a big change in that. If you see the different reports that are out there, probably demand for steel for the automotive industry, it's going to stay stable for the next couple of years, until the new generation of batteries come forward. And then, cost will be also the main issue from industry. So demand is for steel is, again, going to peak. I think, in the long term, electric vehicles are going to be produced mostly from steel. That's what we are seeing. The cost driven or the equation, of course, even, it's very clear there. So I don't see a problem also there upon so. I hope to this I answer the question, but I don't know if I left something not answering, Alfonso.

Yes, those are my concerns. What I think is that this could be a little bit more structural. The fact that OEMs are realizing that they can do a better margins by not producing affordable cars in the future. And it has also to do with safety regulations, with emission regulations, which are very, very expensive for them to comply with. And that makes the affordable car less interesting to them. Cause there is no margin left. So that is probably something that we will see in the future, how this evolves. But I see you (inaudible)...

No, I totally agree with you, but I am not seeing that trend. I think that some of the OEMs are going to produce affordable cars. There is a demand and somebody's going to do it. If you see what Tesla's doing, they want to do the, of course, the high margin cars, Model X, Model S. But Model 3 and the new one that they are talking about, they are much less expensive cars and they are much more steel usage on the other side. But somebody's going to build the demand. The world did need the more affordable cars also.

I totally agree with you. I'm just concerned that it's going to be Asian brands and Chinese brands coming, which are going to get rid of that. So that a good part of that market, but we'll see how things go forth. Thank you, Maximo.

Also, it could be, Alfonso, that they need to use steel, melt it, and pour in the NAFTA, to be USMCA compliant. So customers, if we have Chinese, so we have American, we have Japanese. For us, they are our customers.

Your next questions from a line of Caio Greiner with BTG Pactual.

Just 2 quick questions from my... First one, the situation in Argentina, we've seen some companies with operations in Argentina reporting what could be seen as unsustainable high results, largely because of the large gap between the official and the unofficial foreign exchange. So just 2 points here. And I know it's mostly on the consumer side, so I just wanted to check with you, what kind of impact could we expect from this going forward for Ternium, on an accounting perspective, if we should be aware of anything that's going to be coming up for the third quarter or anything that we could have seen in the second quarter as well? And the second point, what kind of impact have you guys been sensing to steel demand in the country? Have you seen any slowdown from your customers or anything that we should be on alert for?

And the second point here, just to follow up to the previous question on Cascadia. I do remember that, in the last conference call, I think Maximo mentioned that you guys expected to see incremental shipments, especially from Cascadia, but for the Mexico division, for the Mexico geography to be around 1 million tons for 2022. I just wanted to check that that's still the case where you guys have been looking at, because you guys have been saying that commercial markets have been slow. And certification process takes around one year. So we might not see that for 2022. So just wanted to check if we can get an updated estimate for those incremental volumes for Mexico. And even if you guys have anything for 2023 as well, that could be helpful. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you very much, Caio. I start with the second part of the Argentinian question and let Pablo talk about accounting, your first part. The impact on the market, as I said before, we are not seeing yet any impact in the market. Shipments from Ternium, Argentina, and still demand is still at the same levels as last quarter and the quarter before. It has been very stable and at the very good levels, to be honest.

Having said this, today, it is important day. The new minister of economy is going to speak about the new economic plan. And as I said in my initial remarks, the macroeconomic situation is very complicated. So we think that, at the end, there is going to be an affection to the demand in Argentina. When it's coming, I am not able yet to say, but again, today, we see very stable. Our orders are very good and our customers are selling everything, to be honest. So we are very cautious. In spite of that, we are very cautious. Pablo, why don't you answer the accounting part?

Okay. Ciao, how are you? So let me try first to answer your question in a theoretical way, and then we can enter into what's happening in Ternium. If, as you said, especially in some cars, let's say customers or companies that are working in Argentina more in the retail side are able to buy at the official exchange rate and put in prices more related to the, let's say, the financial exchange rate.

Clearly, there will be an expanded margin. So this could be the case of some companies that you have been talking to. This is not our case. We use the official exchange rate, which is, by the way, the only exchange rate that you can use to have the numbers, both in selling our products and in buying our products. So we have been buying all our raw materials and that are in Argentina imported, using the official exchange rate, and similarly, in the case of our sales in the market.

So we have not that specific situation. In any case, and as you mentioned, if there is a devaluation, usually devaluation help initially to increase a little bit profitability. Because devalue (inaudible) is not dollar denominated in our case in Ternium Argentina, around 30% of our cost is special denominated. Then you have a possible gain in relationship to that, but also, and also Maximo mentioned this in the first part of answering your question, the uncertainty and the new plan or the consequences of the situation that we have today in Argentina, that if you consider that possible solution would be to adjust the expenditure in the country and add things to control inflation could have an impact on volumes or demand in the market.

So very uncertain situation at the moment. And we need to wait until what's going or will be the announcement of today. And then, we probably have a clarity on that. But going back to the initial part of your question, it's not something that is impacting Ternium today.

Well, I go to the Pesqueria question on the incremental shipment, Caio. And you're right. We said in the past, I think it was last year when we put, I think it was a conference call in November of last year when we were ramping up the Pesqueria project. And to be clear, we are not going to achieve that objective that we put in that conference call. I think there are 2 things.

One is all these huge imports that came at the end of last year, we were not expecting that. And that was in the stock for the first part of this year. The second point is that clear the commercial market is worse than what we expected. If you see the construction or the infrastructure, GDP in Mexico is continue declining, although Mexico is growing as a whole in the country. Those 2 things we didn't expect.

The certification process is something normal that we had into account. But we were hoping to ramp up production to go first to commercial market and to substitute these imports that were coming where we didn't have any capacity in the middle of last year to go. But the volume of the Pesqueria plant today, the production is in line with the perception. The (inaudible) mill is running exactly as we projected.

The problem is the Churubusco facility, which of course is an older facility, so we are not producing the capacity we did expect. 2023, I think the volume will be there. I think that these certifications, part of that is going to be ready in 2023 so we are going to see incremental volumes from the industrial customers. The question is, if the commercial market is going to react if construction infrastructure in Mexico is going to grow. And that's a big if. I think it will, but we have to see that in the coming month.

Just to get a sense from you, do you guys expect any kind of increase in terms of shipments for Mexico this year? And could you maybe provide a guidance for 2023, an expectation that you guys are currently working with? Or is that still too far away to say anything? Thank you.

I think given the uncertainty of the moment, of the world's economy, not of the steel business, I think talking about 2023 is a little bit early today. We have our own projected projections, but they are internal ones. Of course they're growing, but to say a number publicly, I think we should wait a little bit more. I don't see any increase in 2022, or a little bit increase in 2022 in Mexico.

The next question is from the line of Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI.

Just a quick follow up on, still on Pesqueria and on Mexico volume, the first question is if we see a more adverse scenario in 2023, and considering you have all of the certifications you mentioned, are you going to prioritize Pesqueria volumes over other sites, given its lower costs or better margins? Does it make sense to think that way?

And then the second question, specifically about the construction sector which you expressed a caution there, you also mentioned that you see the inventory levels relatively low and you expect some restocking to support volumes in the second half. Can you talk a little bit more about that, and also about underlying demand? Beyond this restocking, how do you see construction activity evolving in the next 6 to 12 months in Mexico? What are the key drivers that you're basically following for this bucket? Thank you.

Okay, perfect. Yes, well, thank you for your question. Volume, we prioritizing Pesqueria. We are doing that today and we are going to continue. The first mill is Pesqueria, the second is the Guerrero plant, the mini mill. Or the first is the mini mill and Pesqueria, those are at full capacity today. Pesqueria is at 85, but it's the ramp up curve we had, to be honest. The one that we are not prioritizing is Churubusco. That's the one that is going to take more or less volume according to the demand. That's the point.

The construction industry, there are 3 drivers, 2 and a half drivers. The first driver is infrastructure. Infrastructure is not good in Mexico. I don't expect that to improve in the near future. The second is construction of the residential homes and buildings of the private sector. It's also going down the last couple of years to be honest. But I do think that in some point that's going to make a turn. When? It's hard to say. But I think that you are seeing more people looking for increase in permits and trying to see their new projects. Again, it would take some month to see if this is really going to come in.

The third one is the industrial sites, the construction of industrial sites. That's the only one that is doing very, very well in Mexico. I mean the thing that we talk a lot in this conference call about reassuring all the north of Mexico is having a booming in building these industrial facilities. The industrial parks are building very much. All our customers and ourself that we have a building unit or our customers that may structure for this industrial business, they have a backlog of several month, some say even one year. That's the only thing that is really increasing in Mexico, which is a very good news because those facilities that are coming, some of them are going to consume steel in the future. They're customers of us, some of them.

But the other 2 are not working, Thiago, so I think that is the main issue in Mexico. Inventories, as I said, in the distribution I think they're low. They are low because of prices. Prices started to decrease and they stopped buying. I think they have to do some restocking, if not in the third, in the fourth quarter. We think that's what is going to happen. But again, it's not going to change a lot the volumes, I think. The main issue is construction really start moving, not only in industrial buildings, but in private investment and the infrastructure investment. I hope I'd answered your question, Thiago.

Your next question is from the line of Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.

I have 2 questions here. The first, going back to your upstream slab capacity expansion plans in Mexico, I was just wondering if you could look to also expand your iron ore production as well to feed into that additional upstream capacity. And in the second question, in terms of pricing for US HRC in the US, after that correction with prices near 800 to $900 for a short ton, do you feel that we're near a bottom right now? And after that correction, have you started noticing your bids for your volume starting to pick up?

Yes, good question. Yes, thank you, Caio. Good questions. We are not seeing, although we are analyzing our iron ore facilities, and we are always looking for new projects with our (inaudible), we are far away from saying that we are going to open or have a new iron ore facility for the new (inaudible) capacity. Probably what we are seeing is that we are going to buy iron ore for that facility. I agree with you. It's very hard to say because it can take a little bit, some month more, but I think we are near at the bottom, for sure in hot rolling prices, hot (inaudible) prices in the US.

And we are seeing that with our sales in the US. To be honest, in the last couple of weeks we have much more inquirers. People are starting to buy futures, prices future, although they're not indicative of anything, but they are higher than the actual price that we have today, so I think that, as I said, demand in industrial customers and in construction in the US is still very healthy. Although everybody's talking about recession, still demand is very healthy. Industrial demand is very healthy, reassuring it's also happening in the US. We see this both sides of the border, what I call, I talk about construction. I think that again, price is (inaudible) coming to the bottom in some part of the month, or in the next month. And we are going to see a rebound, or at least that they stay steady there. This is our vision, to be honest.

Your next question is from a line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

I just wanted to ask on working capital. You had a large use of working capital this quarter. And if you could give any caller onto how you see that evolving throughout the rest of the year, the second half of the year, considering or assuming that prices remain relatively stable in terms of raw materials.

Thank you, Jens. The increase in working capital, most of increase is because of the prices to be honest. There was some increase in some slab increase, but that's in volume. And we have some increase in Brazil, in the PCI carbon. Remember PCI, we bought it from Russia 100%, and we have to change, and we are buying now from Australia. And to be honest, we make a higher inventory because we didn't know if the Australian PCI was going to work. But the volume of the working capital, part of the increase of the working capital is not that much. I think it accounts for the 10% of increase, mostly what prices. And we see that this is coming down, so the next several, at least the next 2 quarters, we are going to see a decrease in the working capital.

That concludes today's Q&A session for today. I will now hand the call back over to the CEO for any closing remarks.

Okay, thank you all very much for participating in the call. As always contact us if you have any feedback or additional question, and I hope to talk to everybody in the next conference call. Goodbye, thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.