TotalEnergies SE (TTE) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to TotalEnergies' First Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, the 28th of April 2022.

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們的支持,歡迎參加 TotalEnergies 2022 年第一季度業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)我必須告訴您,今天,即 2022 年 4 月 28 日,正在錄製本次會議。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies; and Mr. Jean-Pierre Sbraire, CFO of TotalEnergies. Please go ahead, sirs.

    我現在想將會議交給 TotalEnergies 首席執行官 Patrick Pouyanné 先生;和 TotalEnergies 首席財務官 Jean-Pierre Sbraire 先生。請繼續,先生們。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Good morning, and hello to everyone. Welcome to this conference call for the first quarter of 2022. Given the geopolitical turmoil and the market volatility, I am joining the call to talk about how we are navigating this environment and to answer your question from the perspective of management and the Board. I am today with Jean-Pierre, and he will present you the results after my initial remarks and then the Q&A.

    早上好,大家好。歡迎參加 2022 年第一季度的電話會議。鑑於地緣政治動盪和市場波動,我將加入電話會議,討論我們如何駕馭這種環境,並從管理層和董事會的角度回答您的問題。我今天和讓-皮埃爾在一起,他將在我的初步發言和問答之後向您展示結果。

  • So to that point, it was a month ago on February 24 that Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering violence and destructions that have killed thousands and displaced millions. So TotalEnergies condemns this military aggression. And in response, we have outlined on March 22 our principles of conduct to manage our Russian-related activities, including our full support to current and future sanctions, whatever the consequences on our assets will be.

    所以到那時,就在一個月前的 2 月 24 日,俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭,引發了暴力和破壞,造成數千人死亡,數百萬人流離失所。所以 TotalEnergies 譴責這種軍事侵略。作為回應,我們在 3 月 22 日概述了我們管理與俄羅斯有關的活動的行為原則,包括我們對當前和未來製裁的全力支持,無論對我們的資產造成什麼後果。

  • Going beyond the sanctions, we have also announced our decision to stop the flow of capital to new projects in Russia, initiated a gradual suspension of our activities there while ensuring the safety of our staff. In doing so, we are exercising our duty of vigilance in line with our corporate responsibility. We have begun to end our activities related to Russian oil and petroleum products. We stopped spot trading transactions linked to Russian oil or natural gas.

    除了製裁之外,我們還宣布決定停止向俄羅斯新項目的資金流動,開始逐步暫停我們在那裡的活動,同時確保我們員工的安全。在此過程中,我們正在根據我們的企業責任履行我們的警惕義務。我們已經開始結束與俄羅斯石油和石油產品相關的活動。我們停止了與俄羅斯石油或天然氣相關的現貨交易。

  • On March 22, we announced that given the uncertainty created by the technological and financial sanctions on the ability to carry out the Arctic LNG 2 project, currently under construction, and we are probable tightening with the worsening conflict, we had decided to no longer book reserve for this project. Since then, on April 8th, new sanctions have effectively been adopted by European authorities, notably prohibiting exports from European Union countries of goods and technologies for the use in the LNG benefiting a Russian company.

    3 月 22 日,我們宣布,鑑於技術和金融制裁對目前正在建設中的北極 LNG 2 項目的實施能力造成的不確定性,並且我們可能會因衝突惡化而收緊,我們決定不再預訂為本項目預留。從那時起,4 月 8 日,歐洲當局有效地採取了新的製裁措施,特別是禁止從歐盟國家出口用於 LNG 的商品和技術,以使俄羅斯公司受益。

  • This new provision constitute additional risk on the execution of the Arctic LNG 2 project. And as a result, we decided to record in the accounts of TotalEnergies SE as of March 31, 2022, an impairment of $4.1 billion, concerning notably Arctic LNG 2. Our activity related to Russia is essentially indeed, in fact, centered around LNG supply from Yamal LNG, which the EU has deemed necessary until now. And so until there is a change through possible sanction, we'll continue to honor our contractual obligations and protect the company from potential significant liabilities.

    這一新規定對北極液化天然氣 2 號項目的執行構成了額外風險。因此,我們決定截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日在 TotalEnergies SE 的賬戶中記錄 41 億美元的減值,尤其是北極液化天然氣 2。我們與俄羅斯有關的活動實際上實際上主要圍繞液化天然氣供應來自亞馬爾液化天然氣,到目前為止,歐盟一直認為這是必要的。因此,在可能的製裁發生變化之前,我們將繼續履行我們的合同義務並保護公司免受潛在的重大責任。

  • For Russia, we also apply our principle of transparency. On March 24, we communicate to you the 2021 results and cash related to our Russian businesses. And today, you probably noticed in our press release that we have added a special table related to results, cash flows of our upstream assets as well as to capital employed in Russia. Russia is material in terms of volume, but represents indeed only a very limited part of the generation of revenues and cash flows.

    對於俄羅斯,我們也適用我們的透明原則。 3 月 24 日,我們向您通報了與俄羅斯業務相關的 2021 年業績和現金。今天,您可能在我們的新聞稿中註意到,我們添加了一個與業績、上游資產現金流以及在俄羅斯使用的資本相關的特殊表格。俄羅斯在數量上很重要,但實際上只佔收入和現金流量的非常有限的一部分。

  • In the first quarter, the Russian upstream asset accounted for $300 million or about 2.5% of our cash flow, mainly from Yamal LNG as there was no dividend from Novatek and $1 billion or about 10% of our net operating income. Capital employed is now less than $10 billion after the impairment out of more $140 billion from the company.

    第一季度,俄羅斯上游資產占我們現金流量的 3 億美元或約 2.5%,主要來自亞馬爾液化天然氣,因為沒有來自聯詠的股息和 10 億美元或約 10% 的淨營業收入。在公司超過 1400 億美元的減值後,使用的資本現在不到 100 億美元。

  • The consequences of Russia's actions are going beyond the relation related businesses and will have a significant impact on the global economy, potentially more serious than the COVID pandemic and related shutdowns. The immediate impact, of course, has been the significant disruptions to energy markets that pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and gas prices in Europe and Asia to more than $30 per million BTU.

    俄羅斯行動的後果超出了關係相關業務,將對全球經濟產生重大影響,可能比 COVID 大流行和相關停工更嚴重。當然,直接影響是對能源市場的重大破壞,導致油價超過每桶 100 美元,歐洲和亞洲的天然氣價格超過每百萬英熱單位 30 美元。

  • Oil prices could remain high, particularly if additional production capacity from OPEC or U.S. and conventional fail to compensate for the potential loss of 2 million to 3 million-barrel of oil per day of Russian crude productions, plus a drop in refining capacities from Russia for petroleum products. Gas prices are likely to remain high and volatile as Europe seeks to rebuild inventories and reduce independence on Russian gas, which puts Europe into competition for Vega for LNG.

    油價可能保持高位,特別是如果歐佩克或美國的額外產能無法彌補俄羅斯原油產量每天可能損失 200 萬至 300 萬桶石油,加上俄羅斯煉油能力下降石油產品。隨著歐洲尋求重建庫存並減少對俄羅斯天然氣的獨立性,天然氣價格可能會保持高位波動,這使歐洲陷入了對 Vega 液化天然氣的競爭。

  • But the most important part is also the need for Europe to diversify its energy supply, which will be a massive effort over many years. And this will permanently alter the global supply chain for oil and even for more gas -- more for gas. It's also created, of course, new opportunities for our North Sea natural gas businesses as well as for LNG business and our transition to electricity and renewables.

    但最重要的部分也是歐洲需要使其能源供應多樣化,這將是多年的巨大努力。這將永久改變全球石油供應鏈,甚至更多的天然氣——更多的天然氣。當然,這也為我們的北海天然氣業務、液化天然氣業務以及我們向電力和可再生能源的過渡創造了新的機遇。

  • To respond to this new situation, during this quarter, TotalEnergies mobilized its full capacities and leveraged its integrated midstream LNG business to saturate all our European regas capacities with a record 4.7 million tons of spot LNG purchases. In addition, we are mobilizing additional investments to support short-term gas production in the North Sea assets, 2 rigs have been mobilized in Denmark for infield wells and well stimulation.

    為了應對這一新形勢,在本季度,TotalEnergies 調動了全部產能,並利用其整合的中游液化天然氣業務,以創紀錄的 470 萬噸現貨液化天然氣採購量使我們所有的歐洲再加氣產能飽和。此外,我們正在動員額外的投資來支持北海資產的短期天然氣生產,已在丹麥動員了 2 台鑽井平台用於內田井和油井增產。

  • I remind you that Tierra redevelopment start-up is planned by mid-'23. We have also debottleneck of (inaudible) asset by 10%. We are drilling infill wells on Alwyn, and we are taking actions to boost the production of west of Shetland by 10% by lowering pressures in some pipelines. And of course, we are supporting actions launched by Equinor in Norway.

    我提醒您,Tierra 的重建啟動計劃在 23 年中期開始。我們還將(聽不清)資產的瓶頸降低了 10%。我們正在 Alwyn 鑽探加密井,我們正在採取行動,通過降低一些管道的壓力,將設得蘭群島西部的產量提高 10%。當然,我們支持 Equinor 在挪威發起的行動。

  • It's important, however, to recognize that oil and gas prices started to move higher in the second half of last year before the invasion of Ukraine. So post-COVID rebound in energy demand made it clear that supply-demand balance was already tight even with China partially locked down and then inventories were low. Years of underinvestment in new supply of oil and gas production and storage helped to create this situation, and there is no quick and easy fix for it.

    然而,重要的是要認識到石油和天然氣價格在去年下半年在入侵烏克蘭之前開始走高。因此,疫情后能源需求的反彈清楚地表明,即使在中國部分封鎖且庫存處於低位的情況下,供需平衡已經很緊張。多年來對石油和天然氣生產和儲存新供應的投資不足導致了這種情況,並且沒有快速簡便的解決方法。

  • The industry needs to invest more, but I'm also convinced that our industry will avoid triggering the runaway cost inflation that marked the last commodity super cycle as we will keep this lesson in mind. At TotalEnergies, we continue to invest with discipline. We just acquired a deep offshore oil production in Brazil. We signed yesterday the Atapu and Sépia contract and production will flow from today in our accounts.

    該行業需要更多投資,但我也相信我們的行業將避免引發標誌著上一個商品超級週期的失控成本通脹,因為我們將牢記這一教訓。在 TotalEnergies,我們繼續以紀律進行投資。我們剛剛在巴西收購了一個深海石油生產設施。我們昨天簽署了 Atapu 和 Sépia 合同,生產將從今天開始計入我們的賬戶。

  • And I remember, we acquired them in the last December on a very reasonable price deck of assumptions. And we have made promising all discoveries in Suriname in Namibia. Plus, of course, we are moving forward with partners in North America to further expand our LNG business. Energy is a commodity and commodity markets tend to move cyclically in and out of balance, usually combined by period of uncertainty and high availability.

    我記得,我們在去年 12 月以非常合理的假設價格收購了它們。我們已經在納米比亞的蘇里南取得了有希望的所有發現。此外,當然,我們正在與北美的合作夥伴一起推進我們的液化天然氣業務。能源是一種大宗商品,大宗商品市場往往會周期性地進入和失去平衡,通常伴隨著不確定性和高可用性的時期。

  • So the current geopolitical turmoil and market volatility illustrates the challenge that we describe as the energy triangle. We must seek to balance security of supply with affordability to the customer and impact on climate. Climate is an imperative, but overemphasizing any one of these 3 factors typically comes at the expense of the 2 others. In our case, oil and gas will continue to be a significant source of cash for the company.

    因此,當前的地緣政治動盪和市場波動說明了我們描述為能源三角的挑戰。我們必須尋求平衡供應安全與客戶的承受能力和對氣候的影響。氣候是當務之急,但過分強調這三個因素中的任何一個通常都會以犧牲其他兩個因素為代價。在我們的案例中,石油和天然氣將繼續成為公司的重要現金來源。

  • We continue to fund our growth in low-carbon energies, which we will provide to our customers so that they have access to cleaner, more reliable and affordable energy. At this point in the commodity cycle, high oil and gas prices are flowing into the company, generating strong results and cash flows, which is a complete reversal of situation from just 2 years ago.

    我們將繼續資助我們在低碳能源方面的發展,我們將向我們的客戶提供這些資源,以便他們能夠獲得更清潔、更可靠和負擔得起的能源。在大宗商品週期的這一點上,高昂的石油和天然氣價格正在流入公司,產生強勁的業績和現金流,這與兩年前的情況完全相反。

  • In the first quarter, we generated free cash flow after investments, dividends and buyback of $5.8 billion, and we were able to reduce our net debt so that the gearing fell to 12.5%. Jean-Pierre will come back on the results in detail. Given the strong cash flow generation and the strong balance sheet, the Board reviewed our cash flow, cash allocation principles and clearly, reaffirmed its willingness to give priority to accelerate the company's transformation through counter cycle opportunities. It is, however, in fact, a matter of patience.

    在第一季度,我們在投資、股息和回購後產生了 58 億美元的自由現金流,我們能夠減少淨債務,使負債率降至 12.5%。 Jean-Pierre 將詳細返回結果。鑑於強勁的現金流產生和強勁的資產負債表,董事會審查了我們的現金流、現金分配原則,並明確重申其願意優先通過逆週期機會加速公司轉型。然而,事實上,這是一個耐心的問題。

  • The Board confirms a 5% increase in the first interim '22 dividend to EUR 0.69 per share. And it authorized the company to buy back up to EUR 3 billion of its shares in the first half, so an increase of EUR 1 billion compared to the guidance for this first half which was given in last February. $2 billion will be bought back in the second quarter, twice more than in the first quarter. We will maintain capital discipline as we look for opportunities to profitably grow the company mainly, of course, in LNG and renewables and power.

    董事會確認第一次中期 '22 股息增加 5% 至每股 0.69 歐元。它還授權該公司在上半年回購最多 30 億歐元的股票,與去年 2 月給出的上半年指引相比增加了 10 億歐元。第二季度將回購 20 億美元,是第一季度的兩倍。我們將保持資本紀律,同時尋找機會使公司盈利增長,當然主要是在液化天然氣、可再生能源和電力領域。

  • And we may, at the same time, move countercyclically to divest some nonstrategic oil in this favorable environment, particularly production that is high -- that has high carbon intensity to further rebalance our energy mix. In particular, we will put for sale our 10% interest in the old licenses of SPDC Onshore Nigeria, as the disruptions by local communities are a source of great concerns not only for the operator, but also for us as nonoperator. We will keep, however, the onshore gas licenses of SPDC Onshore Nigeria as they are critical to feed an LNG expansion.

    同時,我們可能會採取反週期行動,在這種有利環境下剝離一些非戰略性石油,尤其是高產量——碳強度高,以進一步重新平衡我們的能源結構。特別是,我們將出售我們在 SPDC Onshore Nigeria 的舊許可證中 10% 的權益,因為當地社區的破壞不僅對運營商而且對我們作為非運營商來說都是一個非常令人擔憂的問題。然而,我們將保留 SPDC Onshore Nigeria 的陸上天然氣許可證,因為它們對於液化天然氣的擴張至關重要。

  • Expanding our integrated LNG activities, along with our renewables and electric business is central to our strategy, and we plan to play an important role in Europe's plan to diversify its energy supply away from Russian gas.

    擴大我們的綜合液化天然氣業務以及我們的可再生能源和電力業務是我們戰略的核心,我們計劃在歐洲實現能源供應多樣化的計劃中發揮重要作用,以擺脫俄羅斯天然氣。

  • We have announced the expansion of our partnership with Sempra in North America. First, we launched this last month, a feed of Cameron LNG extension. I think it represents a 6.5 million ton additional capacity. And second, we extend our partnership to a new potential project in Mexico called Vista Pacifico. And third, we will develop, together with Sempra, some onshore renewables and offshore win in California.

    我們宣布擴大與 Sempra 在北美的合作夥伴關係。首先,我們在上個月推出了 Cameron LNG 擴展項目。我認為它代表了 650 萬噸的額外產能。其次,我們將我們的合作夥伴關係擴展到墨西哥一個名為 Vista Pacifico 的新潛在項目。第三,我們將與 Sempra 一起開發一些陸上可再生能源,並在加利福尼亞州取得海上勝利。

  • TotalEnergies is investing around about 25% of its CapEx to develop renewable and electricity and similar amount to grow LNG and what we call the new molecules, both are critical to the energy transition. In these uncertain times, we remain confident that disciplined investment to support our multi-energy strategy will create long-term shareholder value. In 2022, this might be close to $15 billion inside the previous guidance of $14 million to $15 million.

    TotalEnergies 將大約 25% 的資本支出用於開發可再生能源和電力,以及類似數量的用於發展液化天然氣和我們所說的新分子,這兩者對能源轉型都至關重要。在這些不確定的時期,我們仍然相信,支持我們的多能源戰略的嚴格投資將創造長期股東價值。到 2022 年,這可能接近 150 億美元,而此前的指導為 1400 萬至 1500 萬美元。

  • A last word, before to give the floor to Jean-Pierre, about the preparation of our annual shareholders' meeting on May 25. You probably noticed that we had a constructive dialogue with some shareholders, and that after our sustainability and climate progress report '22 issued on March 24, in line with our principle of transparency, we took some new commitment to extend the scope of our reporting to enable investors to fully assess the company's energy transition strategy.

    最後一句話,在讓-皮埃爾發言之前,關於我們 5 月 25 日年度股東大會的籌備工作。您可能注意到我們與一些股東進行了建設性對話,並且在我們的可持續發展和氣候進展報告之後22 日發佈於 3 月 24 日,根據我們的透明度原則,我們做出了一些新的承諾來擴大我們的報告範圍,以使投資者能夠全面評估公司的能源轉型戰略。

  • In particular, this report will be published each year and submitted to a yearly advisory vote. The Board has decided not to accept the resolution submitted by (inaudible) as it contravenes French legal rules, setting the prerogatives of the company's competitive governance bodies. The Board is in charge of the strategy, not the AGM, but invited those supporting the proposed resolution to express their views either through available or written question, which will be addressed as a matter of priority at our next Annual Shareholder Meeting. We are definitely open to a transparent and constructive dialogue with all our shareholders.

    特別是,該報告將每年發布並提交年度諮詢投票。董事會決定不接受(聽不清)提交的決議,因為它違反了法國法律規則,設定了公司競爭性治理機構的特權。董事會負責戰略,而不是年度股東大會,但邀請那些支持擬議決議的人通過可用或書面問題表達他們的觀點,這將在我們的下一次年度股東大會上作為優先事項解決。我們絕對願意與所有股東進行透明和建設性的對話。

  • And now I will turn it over to Jean-Pierre for a review of the results, and we'll come back to join you for the Q&A.

    現在我將把它交給讓-皮埃爾審查結果,我們會回來和你一起參加問答。

  • Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

    Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

  • Thank you, Patrick. So reported IFRS net income for the first quarter of '22 was $4.9 million, which takes into account the EUR 4.1 billion impairment related to our Russian exposure. So adjusted net income was $9 billion for this quarter, the highest quarterly result in history of the company, up 32% from the previous quarter, mainly due to the 24% increase in our average realized oil price as well as an 8% increase in our average realized gas price and strong results from our midstream and downstream activities.

    謝謝你,帕特里克。因此,報告的 22 年第一季度 IFRS 淨收入為 490 萬美元,其中考慮到與我們在俄羅斯的風險敞口相關的 41 億歐元減值。因此,本季度調整後的淨收入為 90 億美元,是公司歷史上最高的季度業績,比上一季度增長 32%,主要是由於我們的平均實現油價上漲 24%,以及 8% 的增長。我們的平均實際天然氣價格和中下游活動的強勁業績。

  • Adjusted earnings per share was $2.40 in the first quarter, a 1/3 increase from the fourth quarter. Debt-adjusted cash flow was $12 billion, up 23% from the previous quarter, ahead of expectations. Patrick explained to you how we will allocate the strong cash flow.

    第一季度調整後每股收益為 2.40 美元,比第四季度增長 1/3。債務調整後的現金流為 120 億美元,比上一季度增長 23%,超出預期。帕特里克向您解釋了我們將如何分配強勁的現金流。

  • Going now through the results by segment. The integrated Gas, Renewables & Power segment reported adjusted net operating income of more than $3 billion in the first quarter, up 11% from the previous quarter, and a threefold increase from a year ago. Thanks to its ability to capture higher LNG prices and leverage strong performance from gas, LNG and electricity trading activities. Operating cash flow before working capital changes was $2.6 billion, up 6% from the previous quarter and 2.4x higher than the first quarter last year.

    現在按部分查看結果。綜合天然氣、可再生能源和電力部門報告第一季度調整後的淨營業收入超過 30 億美元,比上一季度增長 11%,比一年前增長三倍。由於其能夠捕捉更高的液化天然氣價格並利用天然氣、液化天然氣和電力交易活動的強勁表現。營運資本變動前的營運現金流為 26 億美元,比上一季度增長 6%,比去年第一季度高出 2.4 倍。

  • Cash flow from operations was $315 million, reflecting the increase in working cap linked to the seasonability and to the price effect on receivables for the gas and power supply businesses. LNG sales were 13.3 million tons in the first quarter, up 15% from the previous quarter and more than 30% from a year ago. LNG sales from our equity production were stable at 4.4 million tons. So the main driver was record-level third-party volumes sold on the spot markets, notably in Europe, as Patrick mentioned. Our average price for LNG in the first quarter remained strong at $13.6 per million BTU, and we anticipate that it will be above $14 per million BTU in the second quarter.

    運營現金流為 3.15 億美元,反映了與季節性相關的營運上限的增加以及對天然氣和電力供應業務應收賬款的價格影響。一季度LNG銷量為1330萬噸,環比增長15%,同比增長30%以上。我們股權生產的液化天然氣銷量穩定在 440 萬噸。因此,正如帕特里克所說,主要驅動因素是現貨市場上創紀錄的第三方銷量,尤其是在歐洲。我們第一季度的液化天然氣平均價格保持強勁,為每百萬英熱單位 13.6 美元,我們預計第二季度將高於每百萬英熱單位 14 美元。

  • Our ability to execute and deliver along the entire gas value chain, including our midstream LNG trading activities, has continued to outperform expectations. iGRP increased gross renewable power generation to 10.7 gigawatts at the end of the first quarter, up 400 million watts from the previous quarter, thanks in part to start-ups in India. Gross power generation capacity under development increased to nearly 25 gigawatts, mainly due to the award of concession for offshore wind farms, including 3 gigawatts of the cost of New York and New Jersey and 2 gigawatts of the cost of Scotland.

    我們在整個天然氣價值鏈上的執行和交付能力,包括我們的中游液化天然氣交易活動,繼續超出預期。 iGRP 在第一季度末將可再生能源總發電量增加到 10.7 吉瓦,比上一季度增加 4 億瓦,部分歸功於印度的初創企業。正在開發的總發電量增加到近 25 吉瓦,主要是由於獲得了海上風電場的特許權,其中包括紐約和新澤西成本的 3 吉瓦和蘇格蘭成本的 2 吉瓦。

  • Net electricity generation grew to 7.6 terawatt hour in the first quarter, up 61% year-on-year, thanks to higher utilization from our feasibility power plants in a strong margin environment as well as continued growth in electricity generation from renewable sources. EBITDA from the renewable electricity business was $175 million in the first quarter in the context of power price volatilities and the mechanism for setting the regulated electricity sales tariff in France.

    第一季度淨發電量增長至 7.6 太瓦時,同比增長 61%,這得益於我們的可行性發電廠在強勁利潤環境下的更高利用率以及可再生能源發電量的持續增長。第一季度可再生電力業務的 EBITDA 為 1.75 億美元,原因是電價波動和法國製定受監管的售電關稅機制。

  • The E&P segment reported adjusted net operating income of $5 billion, up 42% from the previous quarter and 2.5x higher than the same quarter last year, far above the increase in oil and gas prices, demonstrating strong leverage to the environment. Operating cash flow before working capital changes was $7.3 billion in the first quarter, up 28% from the previous quarter and nearly double the same quarter last year, reflecting the higher commodity price environment.

    勘探與生產部門報告調整後的淨營業收入為 50 億美元,比上一季度增長 42%,比去年同期高出 2.5 倍,遠高於石油和天然氣價格的漲幅,顯示出對環境的強大槓桿作用。第一季度營運資本變動前的營運現金流為 73 億美元,比上一季度增長 28%,幾乎是去年同期的兩倍,反映了商品價格上漲的環境。

  • Operationally, the E&P segments oil and gas production grew by 3% compared to the previous quarter and was stable compared to the year ago. Start-ups and ramp-ups of projects, mainly in Angola and Brazil, plus an increase in OPEC production quotas offset the natural decline, the price effect and other negative impacts, including the 25,000 barrels per day equivalent decrease in Nigeria related to security concerns about SPDC, which we are considering for divestments, as Patrick explained.

    運營方面,勘探與生產部門油氣產量較上一季度增長 3%,與去年同期相比保持穩定。主要在安哥拉和巴西的項目開工和增產,加上歐佩克生產配額的增加抵消了自然下降、價格效應和其他負面影響,包括尼日利亞因安全問題而減少 25,000 桶/日的當量正如帕特里克解釋的那樣,關於 SPDC,我們正在考慮撤資。

  • Looking ahead, including the startup of Mero 1 and our entry in Atapu and Sépia, we expect production in Brazil to grow by 30,000 barrels per day in the second quarter and then by 60,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Our downstream activities generated $1.4 billion of adjusted net operating income in the first quarter, up [35%] from the previous quarter and 2.6x higher than the same quarter a year ago.

    展望未來,包括 Mero 1 的啟動以及我們進入 Atapu 和 Sépia,我們預計巴西的產量將在第二季度每天增長 30,000 桶,然後在第四季度每天增長 60,000 桶。我們的下游活動在第一季度產生了 14 億美元的調整後淨營業收入,比上一季度增長 [35%],比去年同期高出 2.6 倍。

  • Operating cash flow before working cap changes was $1.9 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and more than 2x higher than renewable. The strong downstream performance was mainly due to higher distillate margins in Europe in the context of reduced imports of Russian petroleum products, as well as outperformance of around $400 million compared to standard results in the quarter by our crude and product trading activities.

    營業上限變動前的運營現金流為 19 億美元,比上一季度增長 22%,比可再生能源高出 2 倍以上。強勁的下游表現主要是由於在俄羅斯石油產品進口減少的情況下歐洲餾分油利潤率提高,以及我們的原油和產品貿易活動與本季度的標準業績相比表現優於約 4 億美元。

  • Refinery throughput increased to 1.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter, reflecting demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. and in Europe and the restart of the distillation unit at the Normandy refinery. Petrochemical production volumes were stable. Petroleum product sales were 1.4 million barrels per day equivalent in the first quarter, stable compared to a year ago, as the demand recovery in aviation was offset by lower sales in Asia due to pandemic lockdowns.

    第一季度煉油廠的產量增加到每天 110 萬桶,這反映了需求的複蘇,特別是在美國和歐洲,以及諾曼底煉油廠蒸餾裝置的重啟。石化產品產量穩定。第一季度石油產品銷售量為每天 140 萬桶,與一年前相比保持穩定,因為航空需求的複蘇被亞洲因疫情封鎖而導致的銷售下降所抵消。

  • At the company level, operating cash flow before working cap changes was $11.6 billion in the first quarter. This was a working capital build of $3.5 billion in the first quarter, mainly due to price effects on inventories, an increase in inventories level to ensure the security of supply for refineries, and the seasonality of the gas and electricity business. This was partially offset by $0.9 billion release of margin growth and $1.9 billion of receivable payable valuation, including an increase in tax payables.

    在公司層面,第一季度營業上限變動前的運營現金流為 116 億美元。這是第一季度增加了 35 億美元的營運資金,主要是由於價格對庫存的影響、為確保煉油廠供應安全而增加的庫存水平以及天然氣和電力業務的季節性。這被 9 億美元的利潤率增長和 19 億美元的應收應付估值(包括應繳稅款的增加)部分抵消。

  • Net investments were $2.9 billion in the first quarter, including $900 million for renewable and electricity, in line with the '22 targets of 25% of our CapEx for the full year.

    第一季度的淨投資為 29 億美元,其中 9 億美元用於可再生能源和電力,符合 22 個目標,即我們全年資本支出的 25%。

  • We are maintaining capital discipline and full year CapEx may trend towards $15 million, still inside the previous guidance of $14 million to $15 million, as Patrick mentioned, including the mobilization of additional investment to support short-term gas prices -- gas production, sorry, in the North Sea and additional opportunities that may rise in line with our strategy of transformation.

    正如帕特里克所說,我們正在維持資本紀律,全年資本支出可能趨向 1500 萬美元,仍處於先前 1400 萬美元至 1500 萬美元的指導範圍內,包括動員額外投資以支持短期天然氣價格——天然氣生產,抱歉,在北海和其他可能符合我們轉型戰略的機會。

  • We reduced net debt by $3.7 million, which lowered the gearing ratio to 12.5% at the end of the first quarter. And we bought back $1 million of our shares during the quarter.

    我們將淨債務減少了 370 萬美元,使第一季度末的資產負債率降至 12.5%。我們在本季度回購了 100 萬美元的股票。

  • We reaffirmed the company's priority in terms of cash flow allocation in this context of higher oil and gas prices, investing in profitable projects to implement the strategy to transform TotalEnergies into a sustainable multi-energy company, linking dividend growth to structural cash flow growth, maintaining a strong balance sheet and a long-term debt rating with a minimum (inaudible) by dominantly and gearing below 20%, and allocating a share of the surplus cash flow from high hydrocarbon prices to share buybacks.

    在油氣價格上漲的背景下,我們重申公司在現金流分配方面的優先事項,投資於盈利項目以實施將 TotalEnergies 轉變為可持續多能源公司的戰略,將股息增長與結構性現金流增長聯繫起來,保持強勁的資產負債表和長期債務評級,最低(聽不清)占主導地位且負債率低於 20%,並將來自高碳氫化合物價格的剩餘現金流的一部分分配給股票回購。

  • Let me conclude my remarks, and so we are ready with Patrick to begin the Q&A.

    讓我結束我的發言,因此我們準備好與 Patrick 開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Irene Himona from Societe Generale.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

  • Irene Himona - Equity Analyst

    Irene Himona - Equity Analyst

  • Congratulations on these exceptional results. I have 2 questions, please. Firstly, on the actual results, Refining & Chemicals benefited from a rather low adjusted tax rate this quarter compared with Normandy with last year. Was this a one-off? And do you expect it to move back up again over the rest of the year? And then secondly, the balance sheet deleveraging obviously continues. And arguably at the top of the cycle, this is quite normal to enable you to then withstand the eventual price downturn. But as you stated, Patrick, prices may well remain elevated for a bit longer. Do you see this rapid deleveraging as creating options for you for large-scale M&A, particularly in new energies and low carbon?

    祝賀這些非凡的成果。我有2個問題,請。首先,從實際結果來看,與去年諾曼底相比,本季度煉油化工受益於較低的調整後稅率。這是一次性的嗎?您是否預計它會在今年剩餘時間內再次回升?其次,資產負債表去槓桿顯然仍在繼續。可以說,在周期的頂部,這很正常,可以讓你承受最終的價格下跌。但正如你所說,帕特里克,價格很可能會在一段時間內保持高位。您是否認為這種快速去槓桿化為您創造了大規模併購的選擇,尤其是在新能源和低碳領域?

  • Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

    Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

  • So I will take the first question in regards to the tax rate. So globally, that's true that globally, the group, the company benefited from a lower tax rate due to the higher contribution of LNG. And I mentioned to you the other performance of the trading and is part of the explanation.

    所以我會回答第一個關於稅率的問題。因此,在全球範圍內,由於液化天然氣的貢獻較高,因此在全球範圍內,該集團公司受益於較低的稅率。我向您提到了交易的其他表現,並且是解釋的一部分。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. The trading benefits from a lower tax rate than the traditional activity. So there is no more one-off on the refining and petrochemicals part of the business. Considering your second question, I mean, priority, as we said, I think we have been very clear with the Board. I think I said it. We consider that this might be an opportunity to accelerate the transition by accessing to some countercyclical businesses. I said in my speech you have to be patient. So I think we have demonstrated in the last 6, 7 years that we were able to capture these type of opportunities.

    是的。交易受益於比傳統活動更低的稅率。因此,該業務的煉油和石化部分不再是一次性的。考慮到您的第二個問題,我的意思是優先級,正如我們所說,我認為我們對董事會已經非常清楚。我想我說的。我們認為這可能是通過進入一些逆週期業務來加速轉型的機會。我在演講中說過,你必須要有耐心。因此,我認為我們在過去 6、7 年中證明了我們能夠抓住這些類型的機會。

  • Obviously, if we move, it will be primarily in either the LNG fields and/or electricity and renewables. Will it be large scale? I'm not a big fan of very large-scale M&A. I think you can also -- the matter is more that it's integration is important. And I think what we have done in the last 7 years, which, I would say, $8 billion, $10 billion like we've done on Maersk Oil or on Mozambique and Anadarko assets, where we are well done. So we'll see. Again, there is nothing specific in our mind, let's be clear. Just the will from the Board to use part of this exceptional cash flows to accelerate our strategy in line with what we said before.

    顯然,如果我們搬家,它將主要集中在液化天然氣領域和/或電力和可再生能源領域。會不會大規模?我不是超大規模併購的忠實擁護者。我認為你也可以——問題在於它的集成很重要。我認為我們在過去 7 年中所做的,我會說,80 億美元,100 億美元,就像我們在馬士基石油公司或莫桑比克和阿納達科資產上所做的那樣,我們做得很好。所以我們拭目以待。再說一次,我們沒有什麼特別的想法,讓我們明確一點。只是董事會願意根據我們之前所說的使用部分異常現金流來加速我們的戰略。

  • But again, as you know, in that field of renewables in particular, as I said often, there is a big bubble. So patience will be of essence in order to make some -- create value, and it's not a matter of volume for us, it's a matter of value. You've seen that we have announced a first recent deal in the U.S. with Core Solar. There will be more to come in the coming months. Be patient.

    但是,正如你所知道的,特別是在可再生能源領域,正如我經常說的那樣,存在一個很大的泡沫。因此,耐心對於創造一些價值至關重要,這對我們來說不是數量問題,而是價值問題。您已經看到,我們宣布了最近在美國與 Core Solar 的第一筆交易。未來幾個月還會有更多。耐心點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Christyan Malek from JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

  • Christyan Fawzi Malek - MD and Head of the EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Christyan Fawzi Malek - MD and Head of the EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Two questions, please. First, regarding the exposure to Russia and the impact of your industrial strategy to grow LNG. Sorry, maybe stay sensitive in a worst case scenario where you have to allow it altogether. Could you frame the impact to sort of just think, just qualitatively, the ability to grow your energy business? And what would be the second and third order impacts in your transition in light of this being a very important cash machine as well as an enabler to deliver more renewables? And for example, would you need to raise more investments elsewhere?

    請教兩個問題。首先,關於對俄羅斯的影響以及貴公司發展液化天然氣的產業戰略的影響。對不起,也許在最壞的情況下你必須完全允許它保持敏感。您能否將其影響定性地考慮為發展您的能源業務的能力?鑑於這是一台非常重要的提款機,也是提供更多可再生能源的推動力,您的轉型中的第二和第三級影響是什麼?例如,您是否需要在其他地方籌集更多投資?

  • The second question, and I sort of realize the way you framed some energy triangle of access, climate security, Patrick. It's interesting you can frame oil and gas investment as a key enabler in order to deliver on the other 2 and in a similar conclusion we came to in our energy study. But it does seem these 3 variables have different weightings depending on the stakeholders involved. So assuming there is a super cycle that takes hold you in the decade, should we expect you to raise CapEx in oil in order to take advantage and underwrite, obviously, the diversification across energy in the other parts of your business?

    第二個問題,帕特里克,我有點意識到你構建一些能源三角接入,氣候安全的方式。有趣的是,您可以將石油和天然氣投資視為關鍵推動因素,以實現其他兩個方面,並且我們在能源研究中得出了類似的結論。但是,這三個變量的權重似乎確實取決於所涉及的利益相關者。因此,假設這十年有一個超級週期佔據您,我們是否應該期望您提高石油的資本支出,以利用和承保您業務其他部分的能源多元化?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Okay. The first one, let's be clear. Russia exposure today to LNG, in fact, in our portfolio, is Yamal LNG. Full point. Arctic LNG 2, as we said, will be difficult to believe that it can be built with the sanctions, and we do not -- we will not provide more capital to this project. So Yamal is, in fact, we have 20% of Yamal LNG, which represents around 4 million, 5 million tons of LNG in our portfolio. Can we find other opportunities to replace these volumes? I think the answer is quite clear, yes. And we have already in our portfolio some assets to be developed. We just accelerated with our partners, Cameron LNG.

    好的。第一個,說清楚。事實上,在我們的投資組合中,俄羅斯今天接觸到的液化天然氣是亞馬爾液化天然氣。滿分。正如我們所說,北極液化天然氣 2 號將很難相信它可以通過制裁建造,我們不會——我們不會為這個項目提供更多資金。因此,實際上,亞馬爾擁有亞馬爾 LNG 的 20%,這代表了我們投資組合中大約 400 萬至 500 萬噸的液化天然氣。我們能找到其他機會來取代這些卷嗎?我想答案很明確,是的。我們的投資組合中已經有一些資產有待開發。我們剛剛與我們的合作夥伴 Cameron LNG 加速合作。

  • We have PNG, we have Mozambique, and we'll be patient. We will have maybe in 2 weeks, some other news to explain you how we will replace and ensure the growth for LNG in our portfolio. So I don't expect a direction and disruption of our growth profile in LNG, even if we will add to fully exit Russia, which is not today, but which is a possible scenario. The impact on our -- I would say on the volume part, the impact will come fundamentally more on the gas ratio as we will lose the Novatek gas production. But as you know, it's not a lot of value.

    我們有巴布亞新幾內亞,我們有莫桑比克,我們會耐心等待。我們可能會在 2 週內發布一些其他消息,向您解釋我們將如何替換並確保我們投資組合中 LNG 的增長。因此,我預計我們的液化天然氣增長狀況不會出現方向和中斷,即使我們將完全退出俄羅斯,這不是今天,但這是一種可能的情況。對我們的影響——我會說在體積部分,影響將更多地來自天然氣比率,因為我們將失去 Novatek 的天然氣產量。但如你所知,它的價值並不高。

  • And so having said that, it's not -- when I speak about our transition strategy, it's fundamentally based on LNG more than on domestic gas and that has always been very clear in our strategy. The energy triangles. I think let's be clear, it's a triangle and the -- I think, a lot of European political leaders will discover it. The climate is fundamental. We know all that. It's a question of, I would say, survival for the planet according to the scientist. So there is no way to forget this one, and we are very clear.

    話雖如此,當我談到我們的過渡戰略時,它基本上不是基於液化天然氣而不是國內天然氣,這在我們的戰略中一直非常明確。能量三角形。我想讓我們明確一點,這是一個三角形,我認為,很多歐洲政治領導人會發現它。氣候是根本。我們都知道。據這位科學家說,這是一個關於地球生存的問題。所以沒有辦法忘記這一點,我們很清楚。

  • So it will not change fundamentally. It's not because suddenly we have a surge of oil and gas prices that will change our strategy. The strategy is fundamentally linked to a long-term energy market evolution, which is that if we want to decarbonize, electricity is fundamental as well as new molecules. Having said that, it's reinforced our views as well that on the next decade, 2020-2030, we never -- we have announced that we will continue to have a sort of stable oil production. To make it stable, as you know, with a decline of 3% to 5%, 4% per year, you need to invest. So -- and we did not -- we announced to invest in oil, look what we've done in Brazil. And by the way, we will benefit immediately from '22 from this increase of price of oil in Brazil.

    所以不會從根本上改變。這並不是因為石油和天然氣價格突然飆升會改變我們的戰略。該戰略從根本上與能源市場的長期演變相關,即如果我們想要脫碳,電力和新分子一樣是基礎。話雖如此,這也強化了我們的觀點,即在下一個十年,即 2020-2030 年,我們從來沒有——我們已經宣布我們將繼續保持某種穩定的石油生產。如您所知,要使其穩定,每年下降3%至5%,4%,您需要進行投資。所以——我們沒有——我們宣布投資石油,看看我們在巴西做了什麼。順便說一句,我們將立即從 22 年巴西石油價格的上漲中受益。

  • We are starting [M1.] We include in our portfolio, Sépia and Atapu. It will represent in the fourth quarter, 60,000 barrels per day of additional oil. And with the fiscal terms of Brazil, it will be beneficial to the company. We have also launched the Uganda project. So I mean -- and we are looking -- as you know as well, we have signed a deal in Iraq last year, which is financed with gas and renewable and oil.

    我們正在開始 [M1.] 我們的產品組合中包括 Sépia 和 Atapu。這將意味著在第四季度每天增加 60,000 桶石油。並且以巴西的財政條款,這將對公司有利。我們還啟動了烏干達項目。所以我的意思是——我們正在尋找——你也知道,我們去年在伊拉克簽署了一項協議,該協議的資金來自天然氣、可再生能源和石油。

  • So we will continue to look for all opportunities in order -- because to maintain again on 10 years a decline of 3%, 4%, you need to find ideas. I'm very pleased as the CEO of the company, that our exploration teams are going back on the road map of success with Suriname and now with Namibia. Namibia, we need to -- it's a promising discovery. I say promising because it's only one well. I've seen incredible numbers of newspapers. We need to drill the appraisal. We've decided to accelerate the appraisal well August, September and to test. And then we will be able to communicate larger.

    所以我們將繼續按順序尋找所有機會——因為要再次保持 10 年 3%、4% 的跌幅,你需要找到想法。作為公司的首席執行官,我很高興我們的勘探團隊在蘇里南和納米比亞的成功之路上重回正軌。納米比亞,我們需要——這是一個很有希望的發現。我說有希望是因為它只有一口井。我看過數量驚人的報紙。我們需要進行評估。我們決定在八月、九月加速評估並進行測試。然後我們將能夠進行更大的交流。

  • But if we are able to generate by ourselves all these oil discoveries, let's be clear, it's part of the strategy, and we will develop them and it's in line with what we have announced. So [oil] CapEx increase, it's linked to not -- it's -- no, my answer is no, but they're again linked to opportunities we will find.

    但是,如果我們能夠自己產生所有這些石油發現,讓我們明確一點,這是戰略的一部分,我們將開發它們,這與我們宣布的一致。所以[石油]資本支出增加,它與不相關 - 它是 - 不,我的回答是否定的,但它們再次與我們將找到的機會相關聯。

  • Christyan Fawzi Malek - MD and Head of the EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Christyan Fawzi Malek - MD and Head of the EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Just to be clear, Patrick, you're not going to raise [oil] CapEx beyond what you planned. I just want to make sure I understand. It's essentially part of the budget, but there's no plan to raise it...

    需要明確的是,帕特里克,你不會將 [石油] 資本支出提高到超出你計劃的水平。我只是想確保我理解。它本質上是預算的一部分,但沒有提高它的計劃......

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • [Oil] CapEx represent -- 50% of the CapEx, if I understand, if I remember correctly, and I think it's the right measure. Because there is one point in which we need to be super vigilant, and I will be vigilant is a risk of inflation. And I don't want to enter into the mistakes we have done on the previous super cycles where inflation costs rise and because any barrels might be profitable, we'll begin to drill anything. So let's focus on short-cycle projects and let's continue to focus on our strategy for oil, which is accessing to low-cost barrels. And I think we have been -- there are opportunities. And if these opportunities are there, we'll seize them.

    [石油] 資本支出佔資本支出的 50%,如果我理解的話,如果我沒記錯的話,我認為這是正確的衡量標準。因為有一點我們需要超級警惕,我會警惕通貨膨脹的風險。而且我不想犯我們在之前的超級週期中所犯的錯誤,通貨膨脹成本上升,因為任何桶都可能盈利,我們將開始鑽探任何東西。因此,讓我們專注於短週期項目,讓我們繼續關注我們的石油戰略,即獲得低成本桶。我認為我們一直 - 有機會。如果有這些機會,我們就會抓住它們。

  • At the same time, as I said in my speech, it's also an opportunity for us to clean the portfolio -- oil portfolio with the remaining high-cost barrels and I would say high emitting barrels that we have in mature fields in the portfolio. When you have counter-cycle, you have to be countercyclical in both ways, selling when the price is high and buying when the price is low.

    同時,正如我在演講中所說,這也是我們清理投資組合的機會——石油投資組合以及剩餘的高成本桶,我想說的是我們在投資組合中成熟油田擁有的高排放桶。當你有逆週期時,你必須以兩種方式逆週期,在價格高時賣出,在價格低時買入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

    下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Oswald Clint。

  • Oswald C. Clint - Senior Research Analyst

    Oswald C. Clint - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2 as well, please. Firstly, just on LNG again. As I think about Cameron LNG, obviously, we know it's one of the cheapest built plants in the last decade. So you're going into feed. You're going to engage with the EPC contractors. There's going to be a scramble for LNG. You spoke just about inflation in the last cycle. So is there a rough sort of unit CapEx number you're thinking about here for this project? But also the feedstock assumptions, clearly, Henry Hub is a lot higher than it has been over the last 5 or 6 years. So any description you could talk would actually be interesting.

    也請2個。首先,再次使用液化天然氣。當我想到 Cameron LNG 時,很明顯,我們知道它是過去十年中建造成本最低的工廠之一。所以你要進入飼料。您將與 EPC 承包商合作。液化天然氣將出現爭奪戰。你剛才談到了上一個週期的通貨膨脹。那麼,您是否正在為這個項目考慮一個粗略的單位資本支出數字?但對於原料假設,很明顯,Henry Hub 比過去 5 或 6 年要高得多。因此,您可以談論的任何描述實際上都會很有趣。

  • And then Secondly, we're waiting for a peace in Ukraine, but it feels like the ceasefire in Yemen is actually holding up here. I know you've protected the plant pretty well in the last 7 years during that particular war. But is there a probability you could place on a scenario where that plant Yamal LNG starts up in the next 12 to 24 months?

    其次,我們正在等待烏克蘭的和平,但感覺也門的停火實際上在這裡得到了支持。我知道在過去的 7 年裡,在那場特別的戰爭中,你很好地保護了這株植物。但是,您是否有可能假設亞馬爾液化天然氣工廠在未來 12 到 24 個月內啟動?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Thank you, Oswald, for the second question. I forget it in my speech because I know we have been long to wait for the ceasefire in Yemen, and we are not part at all of its political discussions and difficult discussions. But obviously, the plant is preserved, let's be clear. I remember -- I remind you, a 7 million-ton plant. According to our assumptions, it could take 6 months to restart the plant, to remobilize and to have a full plant for 6 months. So these 7 million tons might be available quite quickly if, again, but it's conditional to the ceasefire. But it's one of the options.

    謝謝你,奧斯瓦爾德,第二個問題。我在演講中忘記了這一點,因為我知道我們一直在等待也門停火,而且我們根本沒有參與其政治討論和艱難的討論。但顯然,植物被保存下來,讓我們清楚一點。我記得——我提醒你,一個 700 萬噸的工廠。根據我們的假設,可能需要 6 個月的時間來重新啟動工廠,重新動員並擁有一個完整的工廠需要 6 個月。因此,如果再一次,這 700 萬噸可能很快就可用,但這是停火的條件。但這是其中一種選擇。

  • By the way, when we lost it, I remind you that the cash flow per year of Yemen for TotalEnergies was around $1 billion when we lost it in year 2015. And so it was very material, and it could replace easily part of the cash flows from Russia. So that's, I think, one of the advantage, we have a very large portfolio up and down, but let's see.

    順便說一句,當我們失去它時,我提醒你,也門在 2015 年失去它時,TotalEnergies 每年的現金流量約為 10 億美元。所以它非常重要,它可以輕鬆取代部分現金從俄羅斯流出。這就是我認為的優勢之一,我們有一個非常大的投資組合上下,但讓我們看看。

  • Cameron LNG cost advantage. Now fundamentally, yes, it's an interesting project and it's because it's a brownfield project, there is no logistics at all, no JV, no additional storage tanks. It's -- we have -- everything is there. It's a matter of building a new train. I would say yes, of course, today, there are more -- on LNG in the U.S., there are more, I would say, projects. So we might have some inflation. But fundamentally -- the fundamentals are good. And we also, by the way, will debottleneck the first 3 trains, so we have an additional advantage in terms of profitability.

    Cameron LNG成本優勢。現在基本上,是的,這是一個有趣的項目,因為它是一個棕地項目,根本沒有物流,沒有合資企業,沒有額外的儲罐。它——我們擁有——一切都在那裡。這是建造一列新火車的問題。我會說是的,當然,今天還有更多——關於美國的液化天然氣,我會說,還有更多項目。所以我們可能會有一些通貨膨脹。但從根本上說——基本面是好的。順便說一句,我們還將消除前 3 列火車的瓶頸,因此我們在盈利能力方面具有額外的優勢。

  • So this is a very high -- it's a good, very good profitable project. In terms of your second question, it's quite interesting. And in fact, it's back to integration for me. And you know we have this production in the Barnett shale, and I'm happy to have this production in Barnett shale of Shell gas because it's a way to cover part of the gas that we transform in the LNG plants, even if it's not the same molecules, but economically, it work. And obviously, I think I've always been convinced that this integration is strategy. So it might be -- maybe not today because the price is high. But on the medium term, I would say that the strategy where the more we develop in LNG in the U.S., the more we'll produce, we'll have to find access to asset gas in the gas shale.

    所以這是一個非常高的項目——這是一個很好的、非常好的盈利項目。關於你的第二個問題,這很有趣。事實上,這對我來說又回到了整合。你知道我們在巴內特頁岩有這種生產,我很高興在殼牌天然氣的巴內特頁岩中有這種生產,因為它是一種覆蓋我們在液化天然氣工廠中轉化的部分氣體的方式,即使它不是相同的分子,但在經濟上,它有效。顯然,我認為我一直堅信這種整合是一種戰略。所以它可能是 - 也許不是今天,因為價格很高。但就中期而言,我想說的是,我們在美國開發的液化天然氣越多,生產的就越多,我們將不得不在頁岩氣中找到資產天然氣的途徑。

  • Gas in the U.S. will be part of the strategy in order to economically integrate this LNG chain. So it's an answer to your question. I don't give you the assumption, I just give you the way to cope with this, I would say, volatility of the gas price in the U.S.

    為了經濟地整合這條液化天然氣鏈,美國的天然氣將成為戰略的一部分。所以這是對你問題的回答。我沒有給你假設,我只是給你解決這個問題的方法,我想說的是,美國天然氣價格的波動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

  • Michele Della Vigna - Co-Head of European Equity Research & MD

    Michele Della Vigna - Co-Head of European Equity Research & MD

  • Patrick, Jean-Pierre, and really, congratulations. I wanted to ask 2 questions on your view on future returns in some of the renewable investments. Because we're seeing strong conflicting forces. On one side, tremendous cost inflation, in some cases, up to 30%. But on the other side, we're seeing higher power prices and also much higher volatility. And I was wondering, compared with your view 1 year ago, do you see higher or lower return investment opportunities in that space? And has this changed your view of what's the right balance between PPAs and merchant on power? And then staying on low carbon, hydrogen is really at the forefront of repower EU major upgrade to 2030 target. Huge support. But I was wondering, is this really coming through a more attractive set of incentives? And do you see large-scale green hydrogen development in Europe actually showing improved profitability and support for the coming years?

    帕特里克,讓-皮埃爾,真的,祝賀你。我想就您對某些可再生能源投資的未來回報的看法提出 2 個問題。因為我們看到了強大的衝突力量。一方面,巨大的成本膨脹,在某些情況下,高達 30%。但另一方面,我們看到更高的電價和更高的波動性。我想知道,與您一年前的觀點相比,您認為該領域的投資回報率更高還是更低?這是否改變了您對 PPA 和商家權力之間正確平衡的看法?然後保持低碳,氫確實處於重新推動歐盟重大升級到 2030 年目標的最前沿。巨大的支持。但我想知道,這真的是通過一套更具吸引力的激勵措施來實現的嗎?您是否認為歐洲的大規模綠色氫能開發實際上顯示出未來幾年的盈利能力和支持?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So first question, I think we -- it's an excellent question. I think during the March 24 presentation, we told you that, yes, we have the view that the price -- power prices are going on, I would say, higher trends structurally because of intermittency, because of storage, because of all the system to ensure firm power is more costly, and it's not only a question of cost inflation of renewables. And this is why we have taken the decision that -- I don't know if it's, I would say, rough idea, but we want to keep 30% of renewable assets open to the market to ensure the risk of volatility.

    所以第一個問題,我認為我們 - 這是一個很好的問題。我認為在 3 月 24 日的演講中,我們告訴過你,是的,我們認為價格 - 電價正在繼續,我想說,由於間歇性,因為存儲,因為所有系統,結構性的更高趨勢確保穩定的電力成本更高,這不僅僅是可再生能源成本膨脹的問題。這就是為什麼我們做出這樣的決定——我不知道這是否是一個粗略的想法,但我們希望保持 30% 的可再生資產對市場開放,以確保波動風險。

  • Our balance sheet can support it. I think it can make the difference with others. And by the way, also, it's a way to enhance potentially the profitability of these assets on the long term. So for me, it's clear and this is, I would say, compared to what we said a few years ago, where we are entering in that field with the idea we need to secure. No, we are more -- we are -- we have a better understanding. Of course, this needs some integration along the value chain. And renewable is only a production mean. Then it's a matter if you want to make value on such a commodity, you need to be able to store and you need to be able to trade, you need to be able to supply and like in all these commodities business.

    我們的資產負債表可以支持它。我認為它可以與其他人有所不同。順便說一句,從長遠來看,這也是一種提高這些資產潛在盈利能力的方法。所以對我來說,這很清楚,我想說,與我們幾年前所說的相比,我們正帶著我們需要確保的想法進入該領域。不,我們更多——我們是——我們有更好的理解。當然,這需要在價值鏈上進行一些整合。而可再生能源只是一種生產手段。那麼如果你想在這樣的商品上創造價值,你需要能夠存儲,你需要能夠交易,你需要能夠在所有這些商品業務中供應和喜歡,這是一個問題。

  • So today, it doesn't give more -- for me, it's not a bad news, this inflation, because it will cool down a little -- some of the -- some players who are really in the tenders going to very, very low price that we are not on our side participating. We have not been successful, for example, in all the tenders in the Middle East, except one in Qatar. But the rest is we have not been successful because for us, everybody was anticipating deflation, thanks to the new technology. It's a world where you input in your model, you anticipate. Today, you have inflation. So my view is that it will -- it's better. It's coming down this business.

    所以今天,它並沒有給出更多——對我來說,這不是一個壞消息,這種通貨膨脹,因為它會降溫一點——一些——一些真正處於招標中的球員會非常非常非常我們不參與的低價。例如,我們在中東的所有招標中都沒有成功,除了卡塔爾的招標。但剩下的就是我們沒有成功,因為對我們來說,每個人都在期待通縮,這要歸功於新技術。這是一個您在模型中輸入的世界,您可以預期。今天,你有通貨膨脹。所以我的觀點是它會——它會更好。它正在減少這項業務。

  • And so I'm optimistic about the policy to have good returns. And again, we continue to sanction projects, as we said to you, more than ROE of 10%, including by the fact that we might consider keeping and not only selling down some assets when they are quite good, and we have some in mind.

    所以我看好政策有好的回報。再一次,我們繼續批准項目,正如我們對你們所說的那樣,ROE 超過 10%,包括我們可能會考慮保留而不只是在一些資產相當好的時候出售它們,我們有一些想法.

  • Hydrogen in Europe, I will tell you, green hydrogen, my view is that it's -- I'm not fully convinced that it is in Europe, but you'll have to produce green hydrogen. For the time being, the incentives are not so high. There are some projects, but a little bit of scale.

    歐洲的氫,我會告訴你,綠色氫,我的觀點是——我不完全相信它在歐洲,但你必須生產綠色氫。就目前而言,激勵措施並沒有那麼高。有一些項目,但有點規模。

  • It's -- we have one project that we will develop, which we have doubled the size, around 150 megawatts, but it's still small. If you really want to drive the green hydrogen price done, you need to invest at a very large scale. There again, be patient, we will announce soon a project in that field at a large scale. It will not be in Europe because fundamentally, we think that green hydrogen is a matter of cost of electricity. And so we are looking to where we could locate very large-scale. We have a very low cost of electricity on the long term in order to engage into this business.

    這是 - 我們將開發一個項目,我們將其規模擴大了一倍,大約 150 兆瓦,但它仍然很小。如果你真的想推動綠色氫的價格,你需要進行非常大規模的投資。再說一次,請耐心等待,我們將很快宣布該領域的一個大規模項目。它不會出現在歐洲,因為從根本上說,我們認為綠色氫是電力成本的問題。因此,我們正在尋找可以大規模定位的地方。從長遠來看,為了從事這項業務,我們的電力成本非常低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

  • Lydia Rose Emma Rainforth - Director & Equity Analyst

    Lydia Rose Emma Rainforth - Director & Equity Analyst

  • Two questions, if I could. The first one, Patrick, can you just talk us through the thinking of the Board in terms of the share repurchase level and how that changed versus February? And just any thoughts around sort of what happens for the second half? And then secondly, on Russia and the impairment, is that the start of a retreat from Russia? And effectively, what would it take now in terms of Yamal to say actually this isn't working for Total anymore? And then also, one final one, if I could. Just a comment on the diesel market, just given that it's how tight those markets seem to be, and we've seen tracked move up very quickly.

    兩個問題,如果可以的話。第一個,帕特里克,你能否談談董事會對股票回購水平的看法,以及與 2 月份相比有何變化?關於下半場會發生什麼的任何想法?其次,關於俄羅斯及其損害,這是從俄羅斯撤退的開始嗎?實際上,就亞馬爾而言,現在要說這實際上不再對道達爾起作用了?如果可以的話,還有最後一個。只是對柴油市場的評論,只是考慮到這些市場似乎有多麼緊張,而且我們已經看到跟踪快速上漲。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, first, the share buyback, I will tell you, it's -- there is no surprise to you. It does no surprise. We -- you should just believe what we said. We said that we will share the higher price -- the benefits from higher hydrocarbon prices with the shareholders through buybacks. So it's clear that when you have a cash flow from operations of $11.6 billion, it's much higher and you can compare to what we've done in the fourth quarter, which was $9 billion. So obviously, when we said the $2 billion buyback level for first half, it was not done on an assumption of $11.6 billion. So you have $1 billion, it was not a mathematical exercise by the Board towards more the ID. And you can just remark that it's post calculation. It was nothing like that discussion.

    好吧,首先,股票回購,我會告訴你,這對你來說並不奇怪。這並不奇怪。我們——你應該相信我們所說的。我們說過,我們將通過回購與股東分享更高的價格——更高的碳氫化合物價格帶來的好處。所以很明顯,當你有 116 億美元的運營現金流時,它要高得多,你可以與我們在第四季度所做的 90 億美元進行比較。所以很明顯,當我們說上半年 20 億美元的回購水平時,它並不是在假設 116 億美元的情況下完成的。所以你有 10 億美元,這不是董事會對更多 ID 的數學練習。你可以說它是後期計算。這和那次討論完全不同。

  • But $1 billion is 40% of additional $2.5 billion of cash flow compared to Q4 cash flow, but just to -- so I think that's logic. And we will continue to monitor that quarter after quarter at the board level. And we'll not make a big announcement. I think it's also a matter to manage all the stakeholders on that matter. And again, but at the same time, the Board is consistent and reaffirm its strategy to accelerate, if possible, the strategy of transition of the company as a priority.

    但與第四季度現金流相比,10 億美元是額外 25 億美元現金流的 40%,但只是為了——所以我認為這是邏輯。我們將繼續在董事會層面上逐季監控該季度。我們不會發表重大聲明。我認為在這件事上管理所有利益相關者也是一個問題。再一次,但同時,董事會一致並重申其戰略,如果可能的話,將加速公司的轉型戰略作為優先事項。

  • On the gradual suspension. I think something is wrong, it was sometimes on Russia. I never think -- we never stated we will stay in Russia. We just not stated that we will exit from Russia, which is a little different. And there are the many reasons that we explained in our principle of concepts of March 22. So we are looking step after step about what the sanction might be. We are, the sanctions are. We try to even -- and we take the conclusions on Arctic 2, but obviously and other assets. You have your suspension. By the way, you know it's that we have other activities. For example, we have in Russia a lubricant activity. It's not a big business, but we have a lack of additives. So we are suspending and not only suspending, yes, production will be stopped and our activity in lubricant, for example, will be stopped by the end of this month. That's another example in suspension.

    就逐漸暫停。我認為有些地方出了問題,有時是在俄羅斯。我從來沒有想過——我們從來沒有說過我們會留在俄羅斯。我們只是沒有說我們將退出俄羅斯,這有點不同。我們在 3 月 22 日的概念原則中解釋了許多原因。因此,我們正在一步一步地研究制裁可能是什麼。我們是,制裁是。我們試圖平衡 - 我們得出關於北極 2 的結論,但顯然和其他資產。你有你的暫停。順便說一句,你知道我們還有其他活動。例如,我們在俄羅斯開展了潤滑油業務。這不是一個大生意,但我們缺乏添加劑。因此,我們正在暫停,不僅暫停,是的,生產將停止,例如,我們在潤滑油方面的活動將在本月底停止。這是另一個暫停的例子。

  • And we have other assets that we are looking around. On Novatek and Yamal, our position is clear. We have some contracts. We don't know these contracts. These contracts represent a huge amount of money. The volume of the 20 LNG contract is huge. And so we'll have to honor the contract as long as sanctions allow us to do it. And if it's not possible, we'll take the actions as well.

    我們還有其他正在尋找的資產。關於 Novatek 和亞馬爾,我們的立場很明確。我們有一些合同。我們不知道這些合同。這些合同代表著巨額資金。 20個LNG合同量巨大。因此,只要製裁允許我們這樣做,我們就必須履行合同。如果不可能,我們也會採取行動。

  • So again, you have to -- the Board of Directors of TotalEnergies has decided to face the Russian situation in a responsible way. And in particular, to try to protect as much as we can the value of our assets for our shareholders' interest. And so we are monitoring that, but you can observe that we have no board as well had no, I would say, hesitation to say we need to make this impairment, we make the impairment according to what is happening.

    所以,你必須再次—— TotalEnergies 的董事會決定以負責任的方式面對俄羅斯的局勢。特別是,為了股東的利益,我們盡可能地保護我們的資產價值。所以我們正在監控這一點,但你可以觀察到我們沒有董事會,也沒有,我想說,猶豫說我們需要進行這種減值,我們根據正在發生的情況進行減值。

  • This year [quite celebrity] outlook for diesel. Yes, it's clear, it's huge. I was looking this morning, I think we are about $200 per ton, I think. So I've never seen such a diesel crack. It's clear that sanctions on Russia for petroleum products will obviously impact this market, because Europe is relying on Russian diesel, we import from Russian diesel. Because the European refining system is more designed for gasoline than diesel. It's not new, it was before. So obviously, the market is anticipating such a ban.

    今年[相當名人]柴油前景。是的,很明顯,它很大。我今天早上在看,我想我們的價格約為每噸 200 美元。所以我從來沒有見過這樣的柴油裂紋。很明顯,對俄羅斯的石油產品製裁顯然會影響這個市場,因為歐洲依賴俄羅斯的柴油,我們從俄羅斯進口柴油。因為歐洲的煉油系統更適合汽油而不是柴油。這不是新的,它是以前的。很明顯,市場正在期待這樣的禁令。

  • For our activity and for refining businesses, of course, it's even more important that our refineries in Europe are all running. It will be the case very soon. We had unfortunately -- those were stopped, but now it's coming back on stream after 1.5 year of voluntary stoppage. It's restart. So all our refineries will be run at full capacity for the second quarter very soon. So that's positive for the company.

    當然,對於我們的活動和煉油業務而言,更重要的是我們在歐洲的煉油廠都在運轉。很快就會如此。不幸的是,這些都被停止了,但現在它在自願停止 1.5 年後重新投入使用。是重啟。因此,我們所有的煉油廠都將很快在第二季度滿負荷運轉。所以這對公司來說是積極的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

  • Christopher Kuplent - Head of European Energy Equity Research

    Christopher Kuplent - Head of European Energy Equity Research

  • Two quick questions for me as well, Patrick. Can you go a little bit more into detail and tell us what the missing parts are that are delaying Arctic 2? And your assessment of how long it would take to source these parts circumventing sanctions that are now imposed? And the second question is a bit of a wider question. You used $70 Brent and $20 for your gas price assumption when you gave us a 2022 cash flow outlook earlier this year. And it looks like the $20 per Mbtu, at least it looks like that to me, has now become more of a floor than anything else, whereas at the time you said that might be a little bullish here relative to $70 Brent. Can you give us a little summary of your assessment following your introductory remarks around the price of energy security, particularly gas security that Europe, you think, will have to pay in order to redirect volumes over the coming years as contracts with Gazprom expire?

    帕特里克,我也有兩個簡單的問題。你能更詳細一點,告訴我們哪些缺失的部分會延遲北極 2 嗎?您對繞過現在實施的製裁而採購這些部件需要多長時間的評估?第二個問題是一個更廣泛的問題。當您在今年早些時候向我們提供 2022 年現金流展望時,您使用了 70 美元的布倫特原油和 20 美元的汽油價格假設。看起來每 Mbtu 20 美元,至少在我看來是這樣,現在已經變得比其他任何東西都更重要,而當時你說相對於 70 美元的布倫特原油可能有點看漲。在您圍繞能源安全,特別是天然氣安全的價格發表介紹性評論後,您能否給我們簡要介紹一下您的評估,您認為隨著與 Gazprom 的合同到期,歐洲將不得不支付這些費用以在未來幾年重新調整產量?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • On Arctic LNG 2, the situation is the following one. In fact, there is a list of LNG technologies and critical elements, which have been put on the list. I think Technip and other contractors are looking for all this list to identify which critical elements might miss. These sanctions will be in place from May 27. So in the meantime, I think Novatek is mobilizing with its contractors in order to be able to get as much as equipment they can and transferring the teams if they can in order to achieve, I would say, the first GBS one, if possible. We'll see what it is, if they can do that. I think it's a question more for Novatek and for the contractors, which are involved in these activity, in particular, Technip Energy and [Becquer USG].

    在北極液化天然氣 2 上,情況如下。事實上,有一份 LNG 技術和關鍵要素清單,已經列在清單上。我認為 Technip 和其他承包商正在尋找所有這些清單,以確定哪些關鍵要素可能會遺漏。這些制裁將從 5 月 27 日開始實施。因此,與此同時,我認為 Novatek 正在與其承包商一起動員,以便能夠獲得盡可能多的設備,並在可能的情況下轉移團隊以實現目標,我會比如說,如果可能的話,第一個 GBS。我們會看看它是什麼,如果他們能做到的話。我認為這對於 Novatek 和參與這些活動的承包商來說更多是一個問題,特別是 Technip Energy 和 [Becquer USG]。

  • On our side, we have decided to take, I would say, a cautious approach in our accounts and to impair the value of Arctic 2. On the economic assumptions, I think I'm not fully convinced that $20 per million BTU will remain. Because this $20 -- because at the end, it's a question of competition between Europe and other markets. And what I have noticed in particular in this first quarter is that the demand for LNG from China has diminished quite a lot, around 10%, even more than 10%. And only linked to these high prices. So there is, I think, on the LNG business, we must be careful because I see quite a big risk of demand restructuring, in particular, on the Asian side.

    在我們這邊,我會說,我們決定在我們的賬戶中採取謹慎的態度,並削弱北極 2 號的價值。在經濟假設方面,我認為我並不完全相信每百萬英熱單位 20 美元將保持不變。因為這 20 美元——因為歸根結底,這是歐洲和其他市場之間的競爭問題。而我在第一季度特別注意到的是,中國對液化天然氣的需求減少了很多,減少了10%左右,甚至超過了10%。並且只與這些高價掛鉤。因此,我認為,在液化天然氣業務方面,我們必須小心,因為我認為需求重組的風險很大,特別是在亞洲方面。

  • You know where the demand is coming from, fundamentally. So there was an exceptional situation. I would not take $20 as a floor for the long term in our economic macro assumptions. We are more around $8 to $10 per million BTU, but maybe I'm too cautious. For this year, it's quite clear that, yes, there is a good chance that we might end the range of the year by around $20 if we -- and in particular, if Russia begins to stop themselves on their side to provide gas through pipeline, that means that in order to refill the gas storage for next winter, LNG will continue to have to flow through Europe. So LNG prices will probably -- is competing against with other parts of the world. And we'll see, and it's a good test for me what will happen this summer because remember, last year, it was during summertime, but the Asian gas went to the roof, because of the strong demand for climatization and also linked to the economic recovery.

    您從根本上知道需求來自哪裡。於是就出現了異常情況。在我們的宏觀經濟假設中,我不會將 20 美元作為長期的下限。我們每百萬英熱單位大約 8 到 10 美元,但也許我太謹慎了。對於今年,很明顯,是的,如果我們 - 特別是如果俄羅斯開始阻止自己通過管道提供天然氣,我們很有可能會在今年的範圍內結束大約 20 美元,這意味著為了為明年冬天補充儲氣庫,液化天然氣將繼續流經歐洲。因此,液化天然氣價格可能會與世界其他地區競爭。我們將拭目以待,這對我來說是一個很好的考驗,今年夏天會發生什麼,因為請記住,去年是在夏季,但是由於對氣候的強烈需求,亞洲天然氣達到了頂峰,而且還與經濟復甦。

  • So I don't know what is exactly the situation today in China. There are a lot of uncertainties around these lockdowns linked to COVID. We are a little surprised. I think today in western side. But we'll see if China is coming back into the market because they need gas like last year. Of course, the price will not go down, it will remain quite high. On the longer term, you have to be careful, because high gas of LNG is not only destroying demand in Asia, but might be really, I would say, might slow down, will slow down, in my view, the use of gas in Europe. And because it could accelerate the manufacturing industry in Europe, which was benefiting somewhere from the Russian gas, which was a low-cost gas, we'll not be able to resist if we provide that gas the $20 per million BTU. It's not possible.

    所以我不知道中國今天到底是什麼情況。這些與 COVID 相關的封鎖存在很多不確定性。我們有點驚訝。我想今天在西部。但我們將看看中國是否會重新進入市場,因為他們像去年一樣需要天然氣。當然,價格不會下降,它會保持相當高的水平。從長遠來看,你必須小心,因為液化天然氣的高天然氣不僅破壞了亞洲的需求,而且可能真的,我想說,可能會放緩,在我看來,天然氣的使用將會放緩歐洲。而且因為它可以加速歐洲的製造業,它在某處受益於俄羅斯天然氣,這是一種低成本的天然氣,如果我們以每百萬英熱單位 20 美元的價格提供這種天然氣,我們將無法抗拒。這是不可能的。

  • So that means that I think that some industries will begin to accelerate to electrify their supply in order to try to get a cheaper energy with long-term contracts. So I think -- I don't see how we could keep such $20 for the long term because the demand will -- the customers will not take this type of prices. So it's why outlook for projects, we use more -- we have given internal instruction to use $8, $10. But again, by the way, it's enough to relaunch to, I would say, to some North Sea gas projects, which at $5 where stock was trended at $8, $10 profitability. We have a good example in our portfolio about the 0.9 blowdown gas cap, which is a 1 TCF gas, which was stranded, and which today is coming -- is revived. So I have asked the teams to look to these projects, so we could make it pretty onstream. So -- but we don't need $20 for this type of opportunity. So that's my answer to your nice question, please.

    因此,這意味著我認為一些行業將開始加速供應電氣化,以嘗試通過長期合同獲得更便宜的能源。所以我認為——我看不出我們如何能長期保持這樣的 20 美元,因為需求會——客戶不會接受這種價格。所以這就是為什麼我們使用更多的項目前景——我們已經給出了使用 8 美元、10 美元的內部指示。但是,順便說一下,我想說的是,重新啟動一些北海天然氣項目就足夠了,這些項目的價格為 5 美元,而股價趨勢為 8 美元,盈利能力為 10 美元。我們在我們的產品組合中有一個很好的例子,即 0.9 排污氣頂,這是一種 1 TCF 的氣體,它被擱淺了,今天即將到來 - 又復活了。所以我已經要求團隊關注這些項目,這樣我們就可以讓它在網上運行。所以 - 但我們不需要 20 美元來獲得這種機會。這就是我對你的好問題的回答,拜託。

  • Christopher Kuplent - Head of European Energy Equity Research

    Christopher Kuplent - Head of European Energy Equity Research

  • Very clear, Patrick. I think $8 to $10 is already, as you say, enough and would simply be a very important message to recap all gas prices to Brent equivalent levels.

    非常清楚,帕特里克。正如你所說,我認為 8 到 10 美元已經足夠了,而且只是將所有汽油價格重新調整到布倫特等值水平的一個非常重要的信息。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • I fully agree. And by the way, in our commercial part of LNG sales, we have given instruction to our LNG people not to try to go back to the famous 16%, but to be reasonable because for me, today, the priority is to maintain a demand, and it's an opportunity for us to sign long-term contracts. But of course, offering long-term acceptable prices, affordable prices. It could help, by the way, to launch additional LNG projects with these type of contracts.

    我完全同意。順便說一句,在液化天然氣銷售的商業部分,我們已指示液化天然氣人員不要試圖回到著名的 16%,而是要合理,因為對我來說,今天的首要任務是維持需求,這是我們簽訂長期合同的機會。但當然,提供長期可接受的價格,實惠的價格。順便說一句,它可以幫助啟動具有此類合同的更多液化天然氣項目。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Bertrand Hodee from Kepler Cheuvreux.

    下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Bertrand Hodee。

  • Bertrand Hodee - Head of Oil and Gas Sector Research

    Bertrand Hodee - Head of Oil and Gas Sector Research

  • Yes, congratulations again for this very strong set of results as well as your transparencies on the Russia contribution this quarter. Two questions, if I may. So the first one is related to Namibia. There are external industry report that suggests that your Venus discovery could potentially exceed 10 billion of recoverable oil reserves, making it the largest ever deep offshore discovery. I know it is early stage and you referred to it in your earlier remarks, but can you elaborate a bit more on this potential massive find and share with us your initial thoughts on this discovery and any color on a potential fast track development? That was the first question. And second question on Russia, do you expect any dividend from Novatek in 2022?

    是的,再次祝賀這組非常強勁的結果以及您對本季度俄羅斯貢獻的透明度。兩個問題,如果可以的話。所以第一個與納米比亞有關。有外部行業報告表明,您的金星發現可能超過 100 億的可採石油儲量,使其成為有史以來最大的深海發現。我知道這是早期階段,您在之前的評論中提到了它,但是您能否詳細說明這一潛在的大規模發現,並與我們分享您對這一發現的初步想法以及潛在的快速發展的任何色彩?那是第一個問題。關於俄羅斯的第二個問題,您預計 Novatek 在 2022 年會分紅嗎?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • The first question I already answered. And do you believe in -- stop reading newspapers. Just listen to me, it's better. I think you see in your -- is long history in the oil and gas industry, 1 well discovering 10 billion. I don't think it exists. But no, let's be serious about all that. It's -- all that are fantasy. The reason -- as I say, it's a promising discovery. Let's drill the appraisal well, let's test the 2 wells and then we will come. And when will I -- if really we had such levels, which I don't think, we'll be happy, and you will be happy shareholders. So -- but again, I think, by the way, this figure is more referring to the Namibia province rather than just our license.

    第一個問題我已經回答了。你相信——停止閱讀報紙。聽我的,這樣更好。我認為你在你的 - 石油和天然氣行業的悠久歷史中看到了 1 口井發現了 100 億。我不認為它存在。但是,不,讓我們認真對待這一切。這是——所有這些都是幻想。原因——正如我所說,這是一個很有希望的發現。讓我們鑽評價井,讓我們測試2口井,然後我們就來了。我什麼時候 - 如果我們真的有這樣的水平,我不認為,我們會很高興,你會很高興的股東。所以——但我想,順便說一下,這個數字更多地是指納米比亞省,而不僅僅是我們的許可證。

  • But again, I don't want -- don't -- and trend me. Let's wait. It's a promising discovery. It's enough. Russia dividend, Novatek has improved. I think general assembly shareholders has approved dividend last week. We are shareholders. So these dividends are -- will be available. I don't know when in ruble somewhere. Could we, yes or not, transfer them to TotalEnergies? That's another question, which depends not only on us, but on all the counter sanctions from Russia.

    但同樣,我不想——不要——讓我趨之若鶩。我們等等吧。這是一個很有希望的發現。夠了。俄羅斯紅利,聯詠有所改善。我認為大會股東上週批准了股息。我們是股東。所以這些紅利 - 將可用。我不知道什麼時候在盧布的某個地方。我們是否可以將它們轉移到 TotalEnergies?這是另一個問題,不僅取決於我們,還取決於俄羅斯的所有反制裁。

  • And so like the European sanctions, which are moving targets, the counter sanctions are also moving ones. So we will, by the way, honestly, it's not so big. It represents, I think, $250 million for TotalEnergies. So again, this is not what will change. Look the picture of TotalEnergies, it's why we are very transparent. But I don't know if we'll have access, or we'll keep the ruble somewhere in an account in Russia.

    就像歐洲制裁是移動的目標一樣,反制裁也是移動的。所以我們會,順便說一句,老實說,它不是那麼大。我認為,這對 TotalEnergies 來說是 2.5 億美元。再說一次,這不會改變。看看 TotalEnergies 的圖片,這就是我們非常透明的原因。但我不知道我們是否可以訪問,或者我們會將盧布保留在俄羅斯賬戶的某個地方。

  • Bertrand Hodee - Head of Oil and Gas Sector Research

    Bertrand Hodee - Head of Oil and Gas Sector Research

  • Maybe I can -- if I can squeeze one more on your impairment in Russia. You disclosed the book value of Arctic 2 was $2.5 billion. Can you help me reconcile this figure with the $4.1 billion impairment you took in Q1?

    也許我可以——如果我能在你在俄羅斯的障礙上再擠一擠。您披露北極二號的賬面價值為 25 億美元。你能幫我把這個數字與你在第一季度的 41 億美元減值進行核對嗎?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • No. You have the information, which was transferred to you. We said notably. And I think if you look to the slide, which was distributed in March 24, you could find along the answer.

    不,您有信息,這些信息已轉移給您。我們說的很明顯。我認為,如果您查看 3 月 24 日分發的幻燈片,您可以找到答案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Alastair Syme from Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗的 Alastair Syme。

  • Alastair Roderick Syme - MD & Global Head of Oil and Gas Research

    Alastair Roderick Syme - MD & Global Head of Oil and Gas Research

  • Patrick, Jean-Pierre, a couple of questions just on sort of state of markets and negotiations. So you've already touched on U.S. LNG. I'm just intrigued to know whether economics are changing. It used to be sort of Henry Hub [plus ipi]. Clearly, LNG developers see the same opportunity as you do out here. So just wondering if those negotiations are getting tougher? And then secondly, could you just sort of explain how the market for acquisitions in renewables works? I mean, you touched on the Core Solar deal. I'm just trying to understand if that's a competitive option and sort of how competitive these options are?

    帕特里克、讓-皮埃爾,就市場和談判的現狀提出了幾個問題。所以你已經談到了美國液化天然氣。我只是很想知道經濟是否正在發生變化。它曾經有點像亨利中心 [plus ipi]。顯然,液化天然氣開發商看到了與您在這裡看到的相同的機會。所以只是想知道這些談判是否變得更加艱難?其次,您能否解釋一下可再生能源收購市場的運作方式?我的意思是,你談到了 Core Solar 的交易。我只是想了解這是否是一個有競爭力的選擇,以及這些選擇的競爭力如何?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • As you know, for the second question, I'd be clear, Core Solar was a deal which was a direct negotiation. And I have a very strong view on this market, and I say to our team, stop looking and stop spending your time or losing your time on competitive opportunities because you are always in front of you, I would say, financial investors, which is obviously do not have at all the same views on these type of assets. So they have money with negative return. So they are accepting retail which are too low. We are not in that field. So the only way for us to continue to build the portfolio, but the Core Solar is an excellent example is to have a direct negotiation and to be able to convince, I would say, the promoter that partnering with TotalEnergies will give you more added value.

    如您所知,對於第二個問題,我很清楚,Core Solar 是一項直接談判的交易。我對這個市場有非常強烈的看法,我對我們的團隊說,停止尋找,停止在競爭機會上花費時間或浪費時間,因為你總是在你面前,我會說,金融投資者,這是顯然對這些類型的資產完全沒有相同的看法。所以他們有負回報的錢。所以他們接受的零售價格太低了。我們不在那個領域。因此,我們繼續建立投資組合的唯一方法,但 Core Solar 是一個很好的例子,是進行直接談判並能夠說服發起人,我想說,與 TotalEnergies 合作將為您帶來更多附加值.

  • And so that's why we compete. We have over I would say, opportunities in our portfolio in which we work. And there again, be patient, will really understand what I just said in the coming weeks on which we work in different countries.

    這就是我們競爭的原因。我想說,我們工作的投資組合中有機會。再說一遍,請耐心等待,在接下來的幾週我們將在不同國家開展工作時,我會真正理解我剛才所說的話。

  • On the first one, I don't know which opportunities you are thinking to. If it is a matter of taking, no. So your question is a little mysterious for me because -- so if you have maybe something in mind. But on the contrary, I would say, on the Cameron Energy, it helped to accelerate, I would say, the decision process with all Chinese -- Japanese partners. On this step as difficult, it's more of a -- there is no fundo. I don't know to which opportunity you refer, which might be impacted by the energy economy is changing.

    關於第一個,我不知道你在考慮哪些機會。如果是拿的問題,不。所以你的問題對我來說有點神秘,因為——如果你有什麼想法的話。但相反,我想說的是,關於卡梅倫能源,它有助於加速,我想說的是,與所有中國 - 日本合作夥伴的決策過程。在這一步很困難,它更多的是 - 沒有fundo。我不知道您指的是哪個機會,可能會受到能源經濟正在變化的影響。

  • Alastair Roderick Syme - MD & Global Head of Oil and Gas Research

    Alastair Roderick Syme - MD & Global Head of Oil and Gas Research

  • Well, I mean sort of deals on the U.S. Gulf Coast or Mexico, indeed, is it still sort of basically Henry Hub plus the fees? Are you still inherently taking Henry Hub price risk?

    好吧,我的意思是美國墨西哥灣沿岸或墨西哥的交易,事實上,它仍然基本上是亨利中心加上費用嗎?您是否仍然在固有地承擔 Henry Hub 的價格風險?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, yes, it's linked to Henry Hub. Yes. If it is your question, the answer is yes.

    是的,是的,它與亨利中心有關。是的。如果這是你的問題,答案是肯定的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Peter Low from Redburn.

    下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

  • Peter James Low - Research Analyst

    Peter James Low - Research Analyst

  • The first question was just a clarification on the cash flow from Russia in 1Q that, I guess, relates to Yamal. Can you confirm that, that has been repatriated from Russia? I appreciate it can change, but just to understand the current situation. And then secondly, you talked about your willingness to explore countercyclical opportunities to accelerate the transformation. Can you clarify, would that be outside the $13 billion to $15 billion net investment range you have previously given to 2025? Or would you stick with that range and try to make disposals alongside any larger acquisitions you are to make?

    第一個問題只是澄清第一季度來自俄羅斯的現金流量,我猜這與亞馬爾有關。你能證實,那是從俄羅斯遣返的嗎?我很欣賞它可以改變,但只是為了了解目前的情況。其次,您談到了探索逆週期機會以加速轉型的意願。您能否澄清一下,這是否超出了您之前為 2025 年提供的 130 億至 150 億美元的淨投資範圍?或者你會堅持這個範圍並嘗試在你要進行的任何更大的收購的同時進行處置?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • On the first one, it's clear, in fact, you have the figure. Most of the cash we received this year is linked to Yamal LNG. So it's the access in Yamal, no?

    在第一個上,很明顯,事實上,你有這個數字。我們今年收到的大部分現金都與亞馬爾液化天然氣有關。所以這是亞馬爾的訪問權限,不是嗎?

  • Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

    Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

  • Yes. Yes. Yes, she is getting back to TotalEnergies. So the figures we gave, we have -- I have that in my desk.

    是的。是的。是的,她要回到 TotalEnergies。所以我們給出的數據,我們有——我的桌子上有。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So it's yes. If we get the cash -- yes. By the way, the war only was declared in the second part of the quarter. But the -- it's Yamal cash system works until now. The second question, the range is valid for '22 $14 billion, $15 billion. We said $14 billion, $15 billion. So the answer to your question is yes, in fact. If we accelerate on one side, we might divest on the other side, because, again, we have -- yes, the answer is yes.

    所以是的。如果我們得到現金——是的。順便說一句,戰爭只在本季度的第二部分宣布。但是——它的亞馬爾現金系統一直有效。第二個問題,該範圍適用於“22 140 億美元,150 億美元”。我們說 140 億美元,150 億美元。所以你的問題的答案是肯定的,事實上。如果我們在一側加速,我們可能會在另一側撤資,因為,再一次,我們有——是的,答案是肯定的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

    下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

  • Biraj Borkhataria - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst

    Biraj Borkhataria - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst

  • I have 2 questions, please. The first one is on the Cameron LNG and the debottlenecking there for the existing trains. Do you have an idea of what time line that debottlenecking is supposed to be delivered on? And then the second question is just on Mozambique LNG. Do you have an update on activities there when you expect to restart and a view on start-up and construction there?

    我有2個問題,請。第一個是在 Cameron LNG 上,並為現有列車消除瓶頸。您是否知道應該在什麼時間線上完成消除瓶頸?然後第二個問題是關於莫桑比克液化天然氣的。當您希望重新啟動時,您是否有關於那裡的活動的更新以及那裡的啟動和建設的看法?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Thank you, Biraj. The plan is to make you feel busy, to sanction next year in '23. So it takes 3 years to build the train, so '26 from Cameron LNG and the new train. Mozambique LNG, maybe not you, but some others of your colleagues asked me the question on March 24. There are not a lot of news between March 24 and today. So as I said, there is an activity on the ground, not from us, but from the government of Mozambique and (inaudible) to recover the security. And then to bring back as a population in piece to have a normal life. These are the 2 conditions we agreed with the Mozambique government.

    謝謝你,比拉傑。計劃是讓你感到忙碌,明年在 23 年批准。所以建造火車需要 3 年時間,所以 '26 來自 Cameron LNG 和新火車。莫桑比克液化天然氣,也許不是你,但你的其他一些同事在 3 月 24 日問了我這個問題。從 3 月 24 日到今天,沒有太多消息。正如我所說,當地有一項活動,不是來自我們,而是來自莫桑比克政府和(聽不清)恢復安全。然後將作為一個整體的人口帶回來過上正常的生活。這是我們與莫桑比克政府達成的兩個條件。

  • My view is that all that will take at least 2022 and then what we plan on our side is to go back there. And as I said last time, we will restart all the activity the day that I will myself be able to visit Afungi, Palma and Mocimboa da Praia because if my security people told me not to go, I will not send any of my people or contractors to face a difficult situation. So I think it's a matter of -- as I said before, there is good news on the ground and the security has much improved, and there are less -- much less, I would say, attack. It's not yet fully recovered.

    我的觀點是,至少需要 2022 年,然後我們的計劃就是回到那裡。正如我上次所說,我們將在我自己能夠訪問 Afungi、Palma 和 Mocimboa da Praia 的那一天重新開始所有活動,因為如果我的安全人員告訴我不要去,我不會派任何人或承包商面臨困境。所以我認為這是一個問題——正如我之前所說,實地有好消息,安全性有了很大改善,而且更少——我想說,攻擊更少。它還沒有完全恢復。

  • I think the government of Mozambique communicated that they -- their objective is to recover the security by June without the year. But then we want -- we don't want to restart our activity surrounded by refugee camps. We want the situation to be stabilized, because peace is going as well with, I would say, the stabilization of the local population and economic activities, on which we contribute, by the way, with others to -- but there are a number of positive signs for the people who are going. And some of my senior officers went there and so I've got some reports. But it's a question of patience.

    我認為莫桑比克政府傳達了他們的信息——他們的目標是在沒有年份的情況下在 6 月之前恢復安全。但是我們想要——我們不想重新開始我們被難民營包圍的活動。我們希望局勢穩定下來,因為和平也在進行,我想說的是,當地人口和經濟活動的穩定,順便說一下,我們與其他人一起為此做出了貢獻——但有一些對於要去的人來說是積極的跡象。我的一些高級官員去了那裡,所以我得到了一些報告。但這是一個耐心的問題。

  • And then once we will consider that the situation is really under control, peace is back, we'll be able to remobilize and we know that it will take us more than 6 months to come back to, I would say, a stabilized construction level. So the opportunity there, the progress are well, but it's not in our hand. It depends again on the actions of the Mozambique government and its allies.

    然後一旦我們考慮到局勢真的得到控制,和平又回來了,我們就能重新動員起來,我們知道我們需要6個多月才能回到穩定的建設水平.所以那裡的機會,進展很好,但它不在我們手中。這再次取決於莫桑比克政府及其盟友的行動。

  • Biraj Borkhataria - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst

    Biraj Borkhataria - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst

  • On the first question, the question I was asking was for the 5% increase in the debottlenecking for the first 3 trains at Cameron LNG. What time line do you expect to deliver that one?

    在第一個問題上,我要問的問題是卡梅倫液化天然氣公司的前 3 列火車的去瓶頸增加了 5%。您希望在什麼時間線交付該產品?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • I think it's -- technically, it's linked to the building of the trains. I mean we will -- it's '25. I think '25 is the third debottlenecking. '25 for the first one. Sorry, I didn't catch it. But it was the first debottlenecking for the first, 2025 and each train will come.

    我認為它 - 從技術上講,它與火車的建造有關。我的意思是我們會 - 現在是 25 年。我認為'25 是第三次去瓶頸。 '25 第一個。抱歉,我沒抓到。但這是 2025 年第一次打破瓶頸,每列火車都會來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Henri Patricot from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Henri Patricot。

  • Henri Jerome Dieudonne Marie Patricot - Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst

    Henri Jerome Dieudonne Marie Patricot - Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • One question on trading and a couple on Downstream. The first one on trading, so very strong performance in the first quarter. We continue to see significant volatility in the second quarter. So I was wondering to what extent you think you can replicate the very strong performance in the first quarter -- of the first quarter and the second quarter in both -- of gas LNG trading and the RC trading? And then secondly, you talked earlier about the risk of demand destruction for gas. And it was interesting to draw your views on the risk for oil demand at the current level of prices that we're seeing and whether you're starting to see some weaker demand in your own network? And then finally, can you give us an update on the impact of the discounts of the pump and whether you would expect these to be extended?

    一個關於交易的問題和一個關於下游的問題。第一個交易,所以第一季度表現非常強勁。我們繼續看到第二季度的大幅波動。所以我想知道你認為你可以在多大程度上複製天然氣液化天然氣交易和 RC 交易在第一季度——第一季度和第二季度——的非常強勁的表現?其次,您之前談到了天然氣需求破壞的風險。在我們看到的當前價格水平下,您對石油需求風險的看法以及您是否開始看到您自己的網絡中的需求有所減弱,這很有趣?最後,您能否向我們介紹一下泵折扣的影響以及您是否希望這些折扣會延長?

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. When we say it's exceptional, it's exceptional. That means that, of course, our traders are willing to do it regularly, that they are motivated directly and personally for that. But I would say, on the oil trading, it was this quarter was as exceptional more or less on the decision put on 2020 volatility. And so again, this type of additional, when we -- I mentioned, let's say, $500 million extra cash is linked fundamentally to a specific situation of volatility of the market when they are in the right sense. So it's okay.

    是的。當我們說它是例外時,它是例外。這意味著,當然,我們的交易者願意定期這樣做,他們為此受到直接和個人的激勵。但我會說,在石油交易方面,本季度在決定 2020 年波動性方面或多或少是異常的。同樣,當我們 - 我提到,假設 5 億美元的額外現金從根本上與市場波動的特定情況相關時,它們在正確的意義上。所以沒關係。

  • For the gas, what I observe is that obviously, it's the second quarter in a row. But we have a strong results. This volatility is there. And I think it's a matter also for our teams to -- we see better position, in particular on the LNG and that gave us an advantage to be able to, I would say, get some good -- strong results. So let's see if they can replicate it. I just want also to mention that we are also benefiting from good and strong electricity trading. And it's also the second quarter in the row.

    對於氣體,我觀察到的是,很明顯,這是連續第二個季度。但我們有一個強大的結果。這種波動是存在的。我認為這對我們的團隊來說也是一個問題——我們看到了更好的位置,特別是在液化天然氣上,這給了我們一個優勢,能夠,我想說,獲得一些好的——強勁的結果。所以讓我們看看他們是否可以復制它。我還想提一下,我們也受益於良好而強勁的電力交易。這也是該行的第二個季度。

  • So I think the reality is that, I would say, performance of trading is generally linked to volatility of the market. They like volatility. Of course, it's a matter to have a good analysis of what is the market trends because it could reverse. So I will touch wood, but that's what we observed.

    所以我認為現實是,我會說,交易的表現通常與市場的波動性有關。他們喜歡波動性。當然,最好對市場趨勢進行良好的分析,因為它可能會逆轉。所以我會碰木頭,但這就是我們觀察到的。

  • On the demand disruption for -- no, I think all is a little different, by the way. Honestly, in our network today, no, we have seen an impact because the COVID. Still, in the first quarter, I remind you that even in Europe, there was some COVID measures and like in Asia today in China. So we don't -- I cannot link oil demand to oil price today. I cannot -- we do not see that -- and I've seen -- I read some statistics on the month of April, where there is no real recovery impact. I cannot tell you that.

    關於需求中斷——不,順便說一句,我認為一切都有點不同。老實說,在我們今天的網絡中,不,我們已經看到了 COVID 的影響。不過,在第一季度,我提醒您,即使在歐洲,也有一些 COVID 措施,就像今天在中國的亞洲一樣。所以我們沒有——我不能將石油需求與今天的油價聯繫起來。我不能——我們沒有看到——而且我已經看到——我閱讀了 4 月份的一些統計數據,沒有真正的複甦影響。我不能告訴你。

  • So it seems that we come back to the levels of 2019 with a small plus. But so we don't observe it even if it's not really in Europe, but the impact might be strong when we remember the super cycle, it was more in emerging countries where the government has to subsidize. And of course, everything is expensive, and so we begin to take actions in order to be more efficient into my efficiency. So it's not exactly like gas. I was -- my remark was more on LNG because LNG is competing with coal. So now it's a relative price of LNG to coal when LNG is very expensive. I'm afraid that some Asian countries will come back to coal quite easily, and which is not good for climate, but that's what will happen. On all the alternative is not so obvious. It's a liquid. And so you don't know because oil is not for electricity, oil is for transportation.

    因此,我們似乎回到了 2019 年的水平,並略有上升。但是,即使它不是真的在歐洲,我們也不會觀察到它,但是當我們記得超級週期時,影響可能會很大,更多的是在政府必須補貼的新興國家。當然,一切都是昂貴的,所以我們開始採取行動,以提高我的效率。所以它不完全像氣體。我是 - 我的評論更多是關於液化天然氣,因為液化天然氣正在與煤炭競爭。因此,當液化天然氣非常昂貴時,現在是液化天然氣與煤炭的相對價格。恐怕一些亞洲國家會很容易地重新使用煤炭,這對氣候不利,但這就是會發生的事情。關於所有的替代方案並不那麼明顯。它是一種液體。所以你不知道,因為石油不是用來發電的,石油是用來運輸的。

  • So we don't have much -- the impact on oil demand might come from the economic growth. That means this war, unfortunately, begins to really have some impact on some supply chains. And then we begin -- and I'm not an micro expert, whether I'm reading the papers from AMF and some central banks, they begin to speak about even a growth which might be either low or negative. So you have a direct link between, I would say, oil demand and macroeconomic environment.

    所以我們沒有太多——對石油需求的影響可能來自經濟增長。不幸的是,這意味著這場戰爭開始真正對某些供應鏈產生一些影響。然後我們開始 - 我不是微觀專家,無論我是在閱讀 AMF 和一些中央銀行的文件,他們開始談論甚至可能是低或負的增長。因此,我想說,石油需求和宏觀經濟環境之間存在直接聯繫。

  • The discount on pump. I think it's -- for me, we have taken some decisions on this one to be voluntary to make the voluntary discount, because we think it's important, and I think it's normal that we take care of our customers, and it's a period where it's a matter of solidarity. We have, as you've seen, a very exceptional results. And frankly, I prefer and it's a discussion with good intelligence with the French government, which prefers us to act by taking actions directly with our customers. We've done it for gas. We'll do it for gasoline, rather a full taxes, and I perfectly agree with this philosophy.

    泵的折扣。我認為這是 - 對我來說,我們已經做出了一些自願提供自願折扣的決定,因為我們認為這很重要,而且我認為我們照顧客戶是正常的,這是一個時期團結的問題。如您所見,我們取得了非常出色的成果。坦率地說,我更喜歡與法國政府進行明智的討論,法國政府更喜歡我們通過直接與客戶採取行動來採取行動。我們已經為天然氣做到了。我們會為汽油做這件事,而不是全額徵稅,我完全同意這一理念。

  • So probably, yes, we will take some initiatives for the summer where people are driving a lot. There is an idea around discount on motorways, but we need to elaborate on this one before to announce it. So I think it's part of, I would say -- again, it's a good way to share part of our profits directly with our customers.

    所以很可能,是的,我們會在人們經常開車的夏天採取一些舉措。有一個關於高速公路折扣的想法,但我們需要在宣布之前詳細說明這一點。所以我認為這是一部分,我會說 - 再次,這是直接與我們的客戶分享部分利潤的好方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

  • Martijn Rats - MD and Head of Oil Research

    Martijn Rats - MD and Head of Oil Research

  • All my questions have been answered. It's been very comprehensive.

    我所有的問題都得到了解答。已經很全面了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman from Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

  • Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

    Jason Daniel Gabelman - Director & Analyst

  • Two quick ones, because I agree, the call has been quite comprehensive. The first on the Brazil payments for Sépia and Atapu. Are there any payments left after whatever you disclosed for 1Q? Because it looks, at least on our numbers a bit light, and I'm not sure if there's any additional payments coming for those PSCs for the rest of the year beyond what was booked for 1Q. And then secondly, I was wondering if you have any update on your views on when the Qatar LNG project when they can award those contracts. It seems like this is about as good as an environment as we'll get to fully sanction the project. So any update there would be helpful.

    兩個快速的,因為我同意,這個電話非常全面。第一個關於巴西支付 Sépia 和 Atapu 的款項。在您為 1Q 披露的任何內容之後,是否還有任何付款?因為看起來,至少在我們的數字上有點輕,而且我不確定在今年剩下的時間裡,除了第一季度的預訂之外,這些 PSC 是否還會有任何額外的付款。其次,我想知道您是否對卡塔爾液化天然氣項目何時可以授予這些合同有任何更新的看法。看起來這與我們將完全批准該項目的環境一樣好。因此,那裡的任何更新都會有所幫助。

  • Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

    Patrick Pouyanné - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, it will be helpful for me as well. But I will let the Qatari authorities communicating on that. It's a competitive process. We are part, of course, of the parties. I led the Qatari authorities communicating there leading the process, and we are a long partner with them. So of course, we are a [adamant] to be able to contribute to these projects. On the first one, your question is the right question, because we are -- right, it's true that the bonus there is a earn-out I think, linked to the oil price, but it's not, I would say -- I don't think it will be paid very immediately. It's on a yearly basis and some years, the mechanism can be described to you by our teams, if you want the details.

    是的,這對我也有幫助。但我會讓卡塔爾當局就此進行溝通。這是一個競爭的過程。當然,我們是各方的一部分。我帶領卡塔爾當局在那裡進行了溝通,領導了這一進程,我們是他們的長期合作夥伴。因此,當然,我們 [堅定地] 能夠為這些項目做出貢獻。在第一個問題上,你的問題是正確的問題,因為我們是 - 是的,我認為那裡的獎金確實是一種收益,與油價有關,但它不是,我會說 - 我不知道'認為它不會立即支付。每年一次,有些年份,如果您需要詳細信息,我們的團隊可以向您描述該機制。

  • But -- so today, yes, we have paid, in fact, yesterday. In fact, all the initial bonuses, which were representing something like $2.5 billion, I think, has been paid. So the treasury of Jean-Pierre has been lowered yesterday, but it was -- he was worried to have too much money. It was worried to have too much money and so all that has been done because there was, on the one side, the bonus to the state, and I would say the compensation to Petrobras, which was paid yesterday.

    但是 - 所以今天,是的,我們已經支付了,事實上,昨天。事實上,所有最初的獎金,我認為大約 25 億美元,都已經支付了。因此,讓-皮埃爾的國庫昨天有所降低,但確實是——他擔心有太多錢。它擔心有太多的錢,所以已經做了所有的事情,因為一方面是給國家的獎金,我想說的是昨天支付給巴西石油公司的補償。

  • So in our cash flows, I think you had in the first quarter the bonus to the state and the compensation has been -- yet first, the main part of the compensation to Petrobras was paid yesterday. And then on this part, there are some earn-outs linked to the oil price, but which are coming, I think, by not before beginning of next year because it's a yearly mechanism, if I remember well, which is triggering at $70 per barrel, if I remember the contract.

    因此,在我們的現金流中,我認為您在第一季度獲得了國家獎金和補償——但首先,昨天支付了對 Petrobras 補償的主要部分。然後在這部分,有一些與油價相關的收益,但我認為不會在明年年初之前實現,因為這是一個年度機制,如果我沒記錯的話,觸發價格為每桶 70 美元桶,如果我記得合同的話。

  • So for this year, I think everything has been paid and then we'll enjoy to get some production flowing 30,000 barrel per day, more or less at an average in second quarter, growing to 60,000 by the end of the year additional production. If it remains at $100 per barrel, it's positive for investments in terms of profitability.

    因此,對於今年,我認為一切都已付清,然後我們將享受每天 30,000 桶的產量,第二季度的平均產量或多或少,到年底將增加至 60,000 桶。如果它保持在每桶 100 美元,那麼就盈利能力而言,這對投資是有利的。

  • So I understand there are no more questions. And so I would like to thank you all of you for attending this meeting, and we'll be happy to have -- we've been happy to answer to all your questions. Obviously, we benefit from very strong environment, but I'm really -- as Chairman and CEO, I'm very pleased that all the teams of TotalEnergies have been able in all the segments to capture this upside. Production was good, 2.85, higher than your consensus, so congratulations to the [NP] teams. GRP, I think iGRP trading arms have performed again very well, and the result is even beating record compared to the fourth quarter.

    所以我明白沒有更多的問題了。因此,我要感謝大家參加這次會議,我們很高興——我們很高興回答你們的所有問題。顯然,我們受益於非常強大的環境,但我真的——作為董事長兼首席執行官,我很高興 TotalEnergies 的所有團隊都能夠在所有領域抓住這一優勢。生產很好,2.85,高於你的共識,所以祝賀 [NP] 團隊。 GRP,我認為 iGRP 交易部門的表現再次非常好,與第四季度相比,結果甚至打破了記錄。

  • On Refining & Chemicals, they come back from red to green in Europe. And I think there is more to come with the diesel crack and all refinery running the second quarter will be probably better than the first one and marketing and services is stable. But business is suffering a little, of course, from all the upstream chain because when margins are strong and refining and prices are high, the margins become to be squeezed on the marketing and services, but we have high-quality assets.

    在 Refining & Chemicals,它們在歐洲從紅變綠。而且我認為柴油裂解還有更多的東西,所有第二季度運行的煉油廠可能會比第一季度更好,營銷和服務也很穩定。但是,當然,整個上游鏈的業務都受到了一點影響,因為當利潤強勁,煉油和價格高時,利潤就會被擠壓在營銷和服務上,但我們擁有優質資產。

  • And so I think that our second quarter should be more or less in the same view in the same or even a little better that what we just down. And as you have noticed, the Board of TotalEnergies is fully committed to continue to enhance the returns to shareholders as well as to implement our growth strategy in our transformation of the company. Thank you.

    所以我認為我們的第二季度應該或多或少在相同的觀點中與我們剛剛下降的相同甚至更好一點。正如您所注意到的,TotalEnergies 董事會完全致力於繼續提高股東回報,並在公司轉型中實施我們的增長戰略。謝謝你。

  • Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

    Jean-Pierre Sbraire - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

    這確實結束了我們今天的會議。感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連接。