TotalEnergies SE (TTE) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I now hand over to Jean-Pierre Sbraire, CFO, who will lead you through this call. Sir, please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在轉交給首席財務官 Jean-Pierre Sbraire，他將帶領您完成這次通話。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Jean-Pierre speaking. We reported solid third quarter results that continued to demonstrate TotalEnergies' ability to effectively leverage the very strong and volatile environment. This success allowed us to further strengthen the balance sheet and to share the benefits with our employees and with our shareholders.

謝謝你。大家好。讓-皮埃爾發言。我們報告了穩健的第三季度業績，繼續證明 TotalEnergies 有能力有效利用非常強勁和動蕩的環境。這一成功使我們能夠進一步加強資產負債表，並與我們的員工和股東分享利益。

The third quarter environment was marked by volatility at a very high level. Brent remained strong, averaging more than $100 per barrel in the third quarter and reversed the decline late in the quarter after OPEC+ announced a 2 million per barrel quota reduction in early October, which demonstrates that OPEC wants to remain in control despite the risk of lower world economic growth.

第三季度的環境以非常高的波動性為標誌。布倫特原油保持強勁，第三季度平均價格超過每桶 100 美元，並在 OPEC+ 在 10 月初宣布削減每桶 200 萬份配額後扭轉季度末的跌勢，這表明 OPEC 仍希望保持控制權，儘管存在較低的風險世界經濟增長。

European gas prices were pushed through the roof by increasing geopolitical tensions and the risk of not enough supply during winter period, even if this risk is limited as gas storage in Europe are full. As a consequence, NBP nearly doubled in the third quarter to more than $42 per million BTU. A strong driver for the results is our average LNG price, of course. It was lifted by the spike in natural gas prices and reached a record $21.5 per million BTU in the third quarter, an increase of more than 50% quarter-to-quarter. We captured the full benefits of this LNG price, thanks to our integrated strategy.

由於地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及冬季供應不足的風險，歐洲天然氣價格被推高，即使這種風險因歐洲儲氣庫已滿而受到限制。因此，NBP 在第三季度幾乎翻了一番，達到每百萬英熱單位 42 美元以上。當然，我們的平均液化天然氣價格是結果的一個強大驅動力。它受到天然氣價格飆升的提振，在第三季度達到創紀錄的每百萬英熱單位 21.5 美元，環比增長超過 50%。由於我們的綜合戰略，我們獲得了這種液化天然氣價格的全部好處。

European refining margins, [MCV], despite an increase in energy costs, reached $100 per tonne in the third quarter, still among the highest we have ever seen but down from their record-setting second quarter levels of close to $150 per tonne. In this context, the company generated third quarter adjusted net income of $9.9 billion or $3.83 per share in the third quarter, in line with the previous quarter.

儘管能源成本增加，歐洲煉油利潤率 [MCV] 在第三季度達到每噸 100 美元，仍然是我們見過的最高水平，但低於第二季度接近每噸 150 美元的創紀錄水平。在此背景下，該公司第三季度調整後淨利潤為 99 億美元或每股 3.83 美元，與上一季度持平。

These strong results were achieved despite the increase in taxes, I will tell you more on the U.K. tax in a minute, and the decrease in production and oil prices but mitigated by higher integrated LNG results. Debt adjusted cash flow came in at $12 billion for the third quarter, down 12% from the second quarter mainly due to a lag effect in the dividends received by equity affiliates. Year-to-date, the DACF is $38 billion, an increase of 80% compared to last year.

儘管稅收增加，但仍取得了這些強勁的結果，我將在一分鐘內告訴你更多關於英國稅收的信息，以及產量和油價的下降，但由於更高的綜合液化天然氣結果而有所緩解。第三季度債務調整後的現金流為 120 億美元，比第二季度下降 12%，主要是由於股權關聯公司收到的股息的滯後效應。年初至今，DACF 為 380 億美元，比去年增長 80%。

Cash flow generation of this order of magnitude marks the start of a new era for the company, an era that would be marked in the quarter held by a 0 net debt balance sheet, an accelerated transition for the multi-energy future and an upgraded through-cycle cash flow payout for shareholders of 35% to 40% from 2022. These were the main messages from the strategy and outlook presentation last month. And the third quarter results confirm these messages.

如此數量級的現金流量標誌著公司新時代的開始，這一時代將在本季度以淨債務資產負債表為標誌，加速向多能源未來轉型，併升級至- 從 2022 年起，股東的周期現金流支付率為 35% 至 40%。這些是上個月戰略和展望報告的主要信息。第三季度業績證實了這些信息。

As part of the environment, the effective tax rate of the company increased to 44% in the third quarter from 39% in the second quarter. This is largely due to a higher tax rate for E&P activities as a result of the U.K. Energy Profits Levy, $0.6 billion impact on the quarter for 4 months of taxation. Despite increased taxes, $26 billion paid in aggregate by end of September, mostly in producing countries. Our cash flow generation is, in any case, far stronger than we had projected a year ago, thanks to the favorable price environment. We estimate the impact of the EU solidarity tax at around EUR 1 billion.

作為環境的一部分，公司的有效稅率從第二季度的39%提高到第三季度的44%。這主要是由於英國能源利潤稅導致勘探與生產活動的稅率提高，4 個月的稅收對本季度產生 6 億美元的影響。儘管稅收有所增加，但截至 9 月底，總共支付了 260 億美元，主要是在生產國。無論如何，由於有利的價格環境，我們產生的現金流量遠遠超過我們一年前的預期。我們估計歐盟團結稅的影響約為 10 億歐元。

Operationally, the company's hydrocarbon production was 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 2.5% decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to planned maintenance, notably at Ichthys, and unplanned downturn at Kashagan, partially offset by the entry into production of Sepia and Atapu and the ramp-up of Mero 1, all these fields being in Brazil.

運營方面，該公司的碳氫化合物產量為每天 270 萬桶油當量，比上一季度下降 2.5%，主要是由於計劃維護，特別是 Ichthys，以及 Kashagan 的計劃外低迷，部分被 Sepia 投產所抵消Atapu 和 Mero 1 的增產，所有這些領域都在巴西。

Year-to-date, OpEx are trending up to $5.6 per barrel on average. This includes a higher cost of energy, representing $0.25 per barrel. Except these higher energy costs, we do not observe any cost inflation at OpEx level. Cost discipline is a constant priority. We are in the commodity business, and maintaining a low breakeven is essential to weathering the cycle.

年初至今，OpEx 的平均趨勢高達每桶 5.6 美元。這包括更高的能源成本，即每桶 0.25 美元。除了這些更高的能源成本外，我們沒有觀察到運營支出水平的任何成本膨脹。成本紀律是一個不變的優先事項。我們從事大宗商品業務，保持低盈虧平衡對於度過週期至關重要。

Looking at the results segment-by-segment now. Integrated Gas, Renewables & Power, iGRP, posted record adjusted net operating income of $3.6 billion this quarter, up $1.1 billion from the second quarter, and cash flow of $2.7 billion, driven by higher LNG prices and strong trading activities, in line with previous quarter. The favorable environment allowed us to overcome the quarter-to-quarter 10% decrease in LNG sales that resulted mainly from the Freeport LNG outage and planned maintenance at Ichthys LNG.

現在逐段查看結果。受液化天然氣價格上漲和強勁交易活動的推動，iGRP 本季度調整後的淨營業收入達到創紀錄的 36 億美元，比第二季度增加 11 億美元，現金流量達到 27 億美元，與之前一致四分之一。有利的環境使我們能夠克服主要由於 Freeport LNG 中斷和 Ichthys LNG 的計劃維護導致的 LNG 銷售季度環比下降 10%。

We expect fourth quarter LNG prices to be above $17 per million BTU, still at high level. I remind you that 70% is linked to Brent formula and 30% to gas spot index. The company continued to execute on its LNG growth strategy by acquiring a stake in North Field South LNG project in Qatar after the North Field East LNG last June.

我們預計第四季度液化天然氣價格將高於每百萬英熱單位 17 美元，仍處於較高水平。我提醒你，70% 與布倫特公式相關，30% 與天然氣現貨指數相關。該公司繼去年 6 月在 North Field East LNG 之後收購了卡塔爾 North Field South LNG 項目的股份，繼續執行其 LNG 增長戰略。

In the electricity business, gross renewable power generation capacity reached 16 gigawatts at the end of the third quarter, up 4.4 gigawatts over the quarter, including 3.8 gigawatts from the Clearway acquisition and the start-up of the Seagreen offshore wind farm in Scotland. We indeed closed the acquisition of 50% of Clearway Energy in the U.S. and announced another key acquisition in renewables in Brazil yesterday -- it was yesterday.

在電力業務方面，截至第三季度末，可再生能源總發電量達到 16 吉瓦，比上一季度增加 4.4 吉瓦，其中 3.8 吉瓦來自 Clearway 收購和蘇格蘭 Seagreen 海上風電場的啟動。我們確實完成了對美國 Clearway Energy 50% 的收購，並於昨天宣布了另一項在巴西可再生能源領域的重要收購——那是昨天。

Net electricity production was 8.8 terawatt hour in the third quarter, up 10% from the second quarter, thanks to the high CCGT utilization rates and growth in renewable power generation. EBITDA from the Electricity & Renewables business was $160 million in the third quarter, stable, compared to the previous quarter. Operating cash flow for iGRP was $4.4 billion in the third quarter, including the positive impact on working capital due to the reduced margin growth and seasonality in the gas and power supply business.

第三季度淨發電量為 8.8 太瓦時，比第二季度增長 10%，這得益於高 CCGT 利用率和可再生能源發電的增長。第三季度電力和可再生能源業務的 EBITDA 為 1.6 億美元，與上一季度相比保持穩定。 iGRP 第三季度的運營現金流為 44 億美元，其中包括由於天然氣和電力供應業務的利潤率增長和季節性下降而對營運資本產生的積極影響。

The E&P segment generated adjusted net operating income of $4.2 billion and cash flow of $6.4 billion in the third quarter, down about $0.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively, throughout the second quarter because of lower production. Quarter-to-quarter, our average realized liquid price fell by almost $10 per barrel. But our average realized gas price increased by around $6 per million BTU. We are ramping up activities in E&P, notably the start-up of production at the Ikike field in Nigeria, the launch of the Begonia project in Angola and the Fenix project in Argentina and a significant gas discovery in Cyprus.

勘探與生產部門在第三季度產生了 42 億美元的調整後淨營業收入和 64 億美元的現金流，由於產量下降，整個第二季度分別減少了約 5 億美元和 10 億美元。每季度，我們的平均實現流動性價格下降了近 10 美元/桶。但我們的平均實際汽油價格每百萬英熱單位增加了約 6 美元。我們正在加強勘探與生產活動，特別是尼日利亞 Ikike 油田的投產、安哥拉 Begonia 項目和阿根廷 Fenix 項目的啟動以及塞浦路斯的重大天然氣發現。

The combined Downstream segment generated $2.4 billion of adjusted net income and $2.9 billion of cash flow in the third quarter, an outstanding performance even if decreased compared to the record-setting second quarter, thanks to strong distillate margins and a good trading performance comparable to previous quarter. To put this into perspective, over the first 9 months, the Downstream generated 4 point 8 -- sorry, $8.4 billion of cash flow, twice the level of the same period last year, and more than enough to cover the entire regular dividend for the year. Our expectation is that refining margin should remain strong, particularly for distillates, given the ban on imports of Russian petroleum products into Europe, effective February '23.

合併後的下游部門在第三季度產生了 24 億美元的調整後淨收入和 29 億美元的現金流，儘管與創紀錄的第二季度相比有所下降，但仍表現出色，這要歸功於強勁的餾分油利潤率和與之前相當的良好交易表現四分之一。從這個角度來看，在前 9 個月，下游產生了 4 點 8 - 抱歉，84 億美元的現金流，是去年同期水平的兩倍，足以支付整個定期股息年。我們的預期是，鑑於從 23 年 2 月起禁止將俄羅斯石油產品進口到歐洲，煉油利潤將保持強勁，尤其是餾分油。

At the company level, over the first 9 months of '22, we generated operating cash flows before working cap changes of around $37 billion, an increase of 85% over the same period last year. Year-to-date net investments of $12.5 billion are in line with our guidance of $16 billion for the year, including $4 billion in decarbonized energy. We bought back $5 billion of our shares over the first 9 months and plan to buy back another $2 billion in the fourth quarter. Our gearing ratio is down to 4% at the end of the third quarter.

在公司層面，在 22 年前 9 個月，我們在營運上限變動之前產生了約 370 億美元的運營現金流，比去年同期增長了 85%。年初至今 125 億美元的淨投資符合我們今年 160 億美元的指導，其中包括 40 億美元的脫碳能源。我們在前 9 個月回購了 50 億美元的股票，併計劃在第四季度再回購 20 億美元。在第三季度末，我們的資產負債率降至 4%。

Given our solid financial position and the strong cash flow generation, the company is expecting a balanced value-sharing policy that includes an exceptional bonus of 1-month salary to all our worldwide employees and a new shareholder return policy announced in September that targets 35% to 40% cash flow payouts. In addition to the regular third interim dividend of EUR 0.69 per share, which represents a 5% increase from a year ago, the Board decided to set the ex-dividend and payment dates for the interim special dividends of EUR 1 per share in December of '22.

鑑於我們穩健的財務狀況和強勁的現金流產生，該公司期待一項平衡的價值分享政策，其中包括向我們全球所有員工提供 1 個月工資的特殊獎金，以及 9 月宣布的新股東回報政策，目標為 35% 40% 的現金流支出。除了每股 0.69 歐元的常規第三次中期股息（較去年同期增加 5%）外，董事會決定將每股 1 歐元的中期特別股息的除權日期和支付日期定為 2018 年 12 月'22.

That concludes my comments, my remarks. And now we can go to the Q&A.

我的評論，我的評論到此結束。現在我們可以去問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question from Irene Himona with Societe Generale.

（操作員說明）Irene Himona 與法國興業銀行的第一個問題。

I had two questions, please. Firstly, you had quite a substantial $7 billion working capital release in the third quarter. I wonder if you can talk about the main components. And then what could we -- if we could anticipate something for Q4, any guidance would be very useful. And secondly, on the Russian impairments you took this quarter, can you please remind us what remains as the net book value after these impairments? And since the strategy you presented last month has left out everything to do with Russia, will you, over time, just write off whatever remains on the balance sheet, please?

我有兩個問題，請。首先，您在第三季度釋放了相當可觀的 70 億美元營運資金。我想知道你是否可以談談主要組成部分。然後我們能做些什麼——如果我們能預測第四季度的一些事情，任何指導都會非常有用。其次，關於您本季度的俄羅斯減值，您能否提醒我們這些減值後的賬面淨值是多少？既然你上個月提出的戰略已經忽略了與俄羅斯有關的一切，那麼隨著時間的推移，你會註銷資產負債表上的任何東西嗎？

Okay. Thank you, Irene. Yes, so the first question regarding working cap, so that's true. We reported $6.7 billion working cap release in the third quarter. And there is four, I would say, or three main factors behind this performance. So the first one, for obvious reasons, was working capital release in relation with the price effect on stocks of around $3 billion -- representing plus $3 billion, more or less. We have a $2.4 billion working cap release as well linked to variation margin release for our gas and electricity business, thanks to several optimization and exposure reduction actions. We have as well a $2.1 billion working cap release in relation with our E&P tax payable. It's mainly the case in North Sea countries, so Norway and U.K. mainly.

好的。謝謝你，艾琳。是的，所以第一個問題是關於工作上限的，這是真的。我們報告第三季度釋放了 67 億美元的工作上限。我想說，這種表現背後有四個或三個主要因素。因此，出於顯而易見的原因，第一個是與大約 30 億美元股票價格效應相關的營運資金釋放——即或多或少增加了 30 億美元。由於採取了多項優化和減少風險措施，我們釋放了 24 億美元的工作上限，並與我們的天然氣和電力業務的變動利潤釋放相關聯。我們還釋放了 21 億美元的與 E&P 應付稅相關的工作上限。這主要是在北海國家，所以主要是挪威和英國。

And on the other side, we have a minus $0.8 billion of various effects on payables and receivable balance. So that was the main driver behind this performance. So for the fourth quarter, of course, it will depend -- it will highly be dependent on the evolution of the prices for the valuation of stocks and for the gas and electricity variation margins. But I have in mind that most of the tax will not be paid in 2022. It will be paid rather during the first quarter 2023. So I do not anticipate a cash-out -- a stronger cash-out or reversal of this performance in the fourth quarter, according to the current environment.

另一方面，我們對應付賬款和應收賬款餘額產生了負 8 億美元的各種影響。所以這是這種表現背後的主要驅動力。因此，對於第四季度，當然，這將取決於 - 它將高度依賴於股票估值以及天然氣和電力變化幅度的價格演變。但我謹記，大部分稅款不會在 2022 年支付。而是在 2023 年第一季度支付。所以我預計不會兌現——更強勁的兌現或逆轉這一表現第四季度，根據目前的環境。

So now perhaps your question on impairment. Yes, so we're recording in our accounts a new -- an additional write-off on the value of our Novatek shares for $3.1 billion in the fourth quarter. Because of course, we have to review the cash flow long-term scenarios to include, in fact, greater uncertainties on cash transfer from Russia. So that was the main driver behind these impairments. So we are very transparent. So we published in the recession documents specific at least on Russia.

所以現在也許你關於減值的問題。是的，所以我們在我們的賬戶中記錄了一個新的 - 在第四季度以 31 億美元對我們的 Novatek 股票價值進行了額外的註銷。因為當然，我們必須審查現金流的長期情景，實際上包括來自俄羅斯的現金轉移的更大不確定性。所以這是這些損傷背後的主要驅動力。所以我們非常透明。因此，我們在至少針對俄羅斯的經濟衰退文件中發表了文章。

And so at that time, we gave the capital employed in Russia, so close to $14 billion end of last year, so -- and now given all the different impairments we made, so we made, I remind you, $4 billion -- $4.1 billion impairment in the first quarter, mainly on Arctic 2. We made $3 billion or $3.5 billion impairment in Q2, mainly on Novatek's value this semester -- this quarter, sorry, an additional $3.5 billion. So all in all, it represents more or less impairment of $11 billion. So now to answer to that -- to your question, in our accounts, we have capital employed to Russia around $6 billion taken after this -- all these impairments that has been done.

所以當時，我們提供了在俄羅斯使用的資本，去年年底接近 140 億美元，所以 - 現在考慮到我們所做的所有不同的減值，所以我提醒你，我們做了 40 億美元 - 4.1 美元第一季度減值 10 億美元，主要是北極 2 號。我們在第二季度減值 30 億美元或 35 億美元，主要是由於諾瓦泰克本學期的價值——抱歉，本季度增加了 35 億美元。所以總而言之，它或多或少地代表著 110 億美元的減值。所以現在來回答這個問題——在我們的賬戶中，我們在俄羅斯使用了大約 60 億美元的資本——所有這些減值都已經完成。

The next question is from Michele Della Vigna with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Thank you much, Jean-Pierre, for all of the presentation and the strong set of results. Two key questions from me. The first one, on the LNG side, there were exceptional results this quarter despite the fact that there were quite a few shutdowns. And I was wondering if perhaps you could give us some visibility of when you expect some of this production to come back, especially Freeport, Nigeria LNG and Ichthys returning back from scheduled maintenance.

非常感謝讓-皮埃爾的所有介紹和一系列強有力的結果。我提出了兩個關鍵問題。第一個，在液化天然氣方面，儘管有不少停工，但本季度取得了非凡的成果。我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您預計部分生產何時會恢復，尤其是自由港、尼日利亞液化天然氣和 Ichthys 從定期維護中恢復。

And then my second question is on your GHG emissions, always very helpful to have it on a quarterly basis and ongoing strong delivery, especially in the reduction of Scope 3. But there was a 10% increase in Scope 1 and 2 emissions. My understanding is most of it comes from Europe and the ramp-up of CCGTs and the Downstream refinery. But I was wondering if you could give a bit more visibility on that.

然後我的第二個問題是關於您的溫室氣體排放，每季度進行一次並持續強勁交付總是非常有幫助的，特別是在減少範圍 3 方面。但范圍 1 和範圍 2 排放量增加了 10%。我的理解是其中大部分來自歐洲以及 CCGT 和下游煉油廠的增加。但我想知道您是否可以對此提供更多可見性。

Yes. So perhaps I will start with the second question. So I'll be very clear, so the increase regarding Scope 1 and 2 in Europe is 100% linked to the CCGT. So I remind you that in 2015, we do not have any CCGT in our portfolio. So now we have different CCGTs, so in France, in Spain, in Belgium. By the way, we have started a new CCGT in France in Brittany in Landivisiau beginning of this year, so -- and given that, for obvious reasons, the CCGT performed particularly well during the third quarter, that's the driver behind this increase regarding Scope 1 and 2 in Europe.

是的。所以也許我會從第二個問題開始。所以我會非常清楚，歐洲範圍 1 和 2 的增長 100% 與 CCGT 相關。所以我提醒你，在 2015 年，我們的投資組合中沒有任何 CCGT。所以現在我們有不同的CCGT，在法國、西班牙和比利時。順便說一句，我們今年年初在法國布列塔尼的 Landivisiau 啟動了一個新的 CCGT，所以 - 鑑於顯而易見的原因，CCGT 在第三季度的表現特別好，這就是 Scope 增長背後的驅動力1和2在歐洲。

And your second question regarding our LNG strong results, despite shutdowns, so for me, it's the demonstration that the success of our integrated strategy on LNGs. Because we were able to replicate very good and very high performance for -- on this segment, on this LNG business, despite shutdowns, so despite the loss of Freeport cargoes in particular in the third quarter. So according to the information I have, Freeport is supposed to come back to 100% capacity before November 2022 -- in December of this year. Nigeria, it will be probably next year. And it is -- so the shutdown has been completed, and so it is supposed to come back to normal production in the fourth quarter.

你的第二個問題是關於我們的液化天然氣強勁的業績，儘管停產，所以對我來說，這是我們液化天然氣綜合戰略成功的證明。因為我們能夠複製非常好的和非常高的業績——在這個領域，在這個液化天然氣業務上，儘管關閉，所以儘管自由港貨物特別是在第三季度損失。因此，根據我掌握的信息，自由港應該會在 2022 年 11 月之前——今年 12 月——恢復 100% 的產能。尼日利亞，可能是明年。它是 - 所以關閉已經完成，所以它應該在第四季度恢復正常生產。

The next question is from Martijn Rats with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got two questions, if I may. First of all, I wanted to ask if you could say a few words about the impact of the refinery strikes in France during the quarter and say a few words on how that might impact fourth quarter results. And then also, I heard you comment on distillate yields -- sorry, distillate cracks and that they may continue to be supported as a result of the EU import embargo on Russian oil. This remains a very hard-to-navigate issue. And I was wondering if you could set out more broadly what you think the impact will be of the EU embargo on Russian oil, both for crude and for products, over the next couple of months.

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。首先，我想問您能否就本季度法國煉油廠罷工的影響說幾句話，並就這可能如何影響第四季度業績說幾句話。然後，我聽到你對餾分油產量的評論——對不起，餾分油裂縫，由於歐盟對俄羅斯石油的進口禁運，它們可能會繼續受到支持。這仍然是一個非常難以解決的問題。我想知道您是否可以更廣泛地闡述您認為未來幾個月歐盟對俄羅斯石油（包括原油和成品油）的禁運會產生什麼影響。

Okay. So the impact on the refinery strike in France, it's very -- it would be a very theoretical calculation because, of course, on one side, we lost production in France coming from these refineries, but we benefited from increased margin in our refineries in Belgium, in particular, or in Germany. So I will not give you a very precise figure. So it's very, very limited, the impact of the strikes in France over the October month.

好的。因此，對法國煉油廠罷工的影響，這將是一個非常理論化的計算，因為當然，一方面，我們在法國失去了這些煉油廠的產量，但我們受益於我們煉油廠利潤率的提高尤其是比利時，或者在德國。所以我不會給你一個非常精確的數字。因此，10 月份法國罷工的影響非常非常有限。

Distillate cracks, yes, they are strong. We think that, of course, the ban on Russian petroleum products that will be effective in February '23 will contribute, of course, to maintain these distillate cracks at very high level. It will not be so easy for Europe to compensate the loss of these volumes. So we -- that's why we think that once again, the margin could remain at high level. For crude, it's probably a bit easier to compensate the loss of the ban on crude, on Russian crude that will be effective in December.

餾出物裂縫，是的，它們很堅固。當然，我們認為，將於 23 年 2 月生效的對俄羅斯石油產品的禁令當然將有助於將這些餾分油的裂解維持在非常高的水平。歐洲要彌補這些數量的損失並不容易。所以我們 - 這就是為什麼我們再次認為利潤率可能會保持在高水平。對於原油而言，彌補將於 12 月生效的俄羅斯原油禁令的損失可能會更容易一些。

Because you can, of course, reroute crude from over -- from other countries. But we are very clear that all these bans will contribute to support the prices. Because, of course, Russian crude will need to find alternative customers, so it will be in India, it will be perhaps in China or more globally in Asia. So these countries could benefit from discounted crude. But on the opposite, the European refiners will have to pay a premium to attract new groups. So that's the [balance] of this ban, I think, implemented at the level of the EU.

因為你當然可以從其他國家改道原油。但我們非常清楚，所有這些禁令都將有助於支撐價格。因為，當然，俄羅斯原油需要尋找替代客戶，所以它會在印度，可能會在中國，或者在全球範圍內更多地在亞洲。因此，這些國家可以從打折的原油中受益。但相反，歐洲煉油商將不得不支付溢價來吸引新的集團。這就是我認為在歐盟層面實施的禁令的[平衡]。

The next question is from Christopher Kuplent with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Most of my questions have been answered already. So maybe just a quick one, Jean-Pierre, if you wouldn't mind giving us a bit more detail about what you're seeing in terms of demand destruction in your chemicals business and perhaps in your overall sales figures and how you're looking into next year, considering the recession that's coming at us.

我的大部分問題已經得到解答。因此，讓-皮埃爾，如果您不介意向我們提供更多關於您在化學品業務需求破壞方面所看到的情況，也許是您的整體銷售數據以及您的情況的詳細信息，也許只是一個快速的考慮到即將到來的經濟衰退，展望明年。

Honestly, it's too premature or too early, I think, to give a figure. So in chemicals, we start seeing but nominally the impact of the possible recession that could happen next year. On our sales at present time, honestly, given the discounts we have in our retail section, we do not see any drop in volume. So we see outlook for next year, for sure, recession should have an impact on this -- on chemicals, should have an impact on gas as well. But too early, I think, to give precise figures.

老實說，我認為現在給出一個數字還為時過早或太早。因此，在化學品領域，我們開始看到但名義上可能會在明年發生的經濟衰退的影響。老實說，就我們目前的銷售情況而言，考慮到我們在零售部門的折扣，我們看不到銷量有任何下降。因此，我們看到明年的前景，當然，經濟衰退應該對此產生影響——對化學品，也應該對天然氣產生影響。但我認為，給出準確的數字還為時過早。

The next question is from Oswald Clint with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自奧斯瓦爾德·克林特和伯恩斯坦。

Just back on the LNG side, please, I wonder if you could help us just understand a little bit more about how you're doing so well. I mean, obviously, some huge gas price differentials in the quarter, especially around quarter end, which need to be marked to market. But you're also buying -- I think you're active buying spot LNG cargoes in the quarter. So was it -- is it a case that you are having some losses on hedged deliveries but offsetting it with new spot cargoes and have been able to offset that through the profit on those? Is that something that's going on?

請回到液化天然氣方面，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們更多地了解您如何做得這麼好。我的意思是，很明顯，本季度的一些巨大的天然氣價格差異，尤其是在季度末左右，需要以市場為基準。但你也在購買——我認為你在本季度積極購買現貨液化天然氣貨物。是這樣嗎 - 您是否在對沖交付上蒙受了一些損失，但用新的現貨貨物抵消了損失，並且能夠通過這些貨物的利潤來抵消損失？那是怎麼回事嗎？

And then secondly, I mean, I understand the confidentiality around assets in Qatar. But is there anything you can say around what we might expect, perhaps proportional EBITDA uplift from starting up what is, I think, one of the largest solar plants in the world that you started up this month? So as we look into next year, is this going to be something material?

其次，我的意思是，我了解卡塔爾資產的機密性。但是，圍繞我們的預期，您有什麼可以說的嗎？也許是從啟動我認為您本月啟動的世界上最大的太陽能發電廠之一的 EBITDA 成比例提升？因此，當我們展望明年時，這是否會成為實質性的東西？

Okay. So our performance regarding LNG, so I think 2021 definitely marked the start of a new era of performance for this LNG and electricity trading. And so this business segment quarter-after-quarter replicates very strong performance. So of course, we do not give full details, absolute value for our trading business. But I can tell you is that we -- in the third quarter, we replicated -- on the LNG, gas and power replicated the excellent performance of the Q2 2022. In Q2 2022, we replicated the high performance we have in the fourth quarter of 2021. And perhaps you remember that in first quarter of 2022, we announced that we have a very, very high trading performance.

好的。所以我們在液化天然氣方面的表現，所以我認為 2021 年絕對標誌著液化天然氣和電力交易表現新時代的開始。因此，這個業務部門一個季度一個季度地複制了非常強勁的業績。因此，當然，我們不會提供交易業務的全部細節和絕對價值。但我可以告訴你的是，我們——在第三季度，我們複製了——在液化天然氣、天然氣和電力方面複製了 2022 年第二季度的出色表現。在 2022 年第二季度，我們複製了第四季度的高績效2021 年。也許您還記得，在 2022 年第一季度，我們宣布我們的交易業績非常非常高。

And so we're qualifying this performance as a lower performance of more than $500 million. So having said that, that's true that we had to record in the Q3 results, the impact of the Freeport outage. And so we -- and the loss of cargoes and the fact that, of course, we have to offset hedging losses. But being able to replicate quarter-after-quarter a very good level of performance demonstrate that we are able, given the global portfolio we have, to offset, in fact, these hedging losses. And so we have the worldwide presence. So we have LNG production in almost all of the main hubs, so in the U.S., in Qatar, in Australia, just to mention.

因此，我們將這一表現定性為超過 5 億美元的較低表現。話雖如此，我們確實必須在第三季度的結果中記錄自由港停電的影響。所以我們 - 以及貨物損失以及我們必須抵消對沖損失的事實。但是，能夠逐季複製非常好的業績水平表明，鑑於我們擁有的全球投資組合，我們實際上能夠抵消這些對沖損失。因此，我們擁有全球影響力。因此，我們幾乎在所有主要樞紐都有液化天然氣生產，例如在美國、卡塔爾、澳大利亞等等。

And of course, we have the LNG coming from Russia as well. And so we have, given this portfolio and given the outlets we have, so we manage between sources and outlets. And so it's the way our trading is able to deliver once again quarter-after-quarter very, very good performance. Qatar, yes, so we -- the solar farm was inaugurated, it was last week, I think, so in Qatar. So it's globally one of the most sizable solar farm worldwide. I think the equivalent of our -- representing 800 megawatts. I do not have, to be honest, the EBITDA. But I will ask my team, and so we can come to you with the figures.

當然，我們也有來自俄羅斯的液化天然氣。所以我們有，考慮到這個產品組合和我們擁有的網點，所以我們在來源和網點之間進行管理。因此，這是我們的交易能夠在一個季度又一個季度再次提供非常非常好的表現的方式。卡塔爾，是的，所以我們 - 太陽能農場落成，我認為是上週在卡塔爾落成的。因此，它是全球最大的太陽能農場之一。我認為相當於我們的 - 代表 800 兆瓦。老實說，我沒有 EBITDA。但是我會問我的團隊，所以我們可以帶著數據來找你。

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Lydia Rainforth。

Three questions, if I could. The first one, with the strategy presentation, I think the guidance was for the gearing to year-end to be at 5%. And essentially, you're already there at the end of this quarter, so -- and I appreciate that the release of working capital and the write-downs. But is there an update as to where you think you'll be at year-end in terms of the gearing number?

三個問題，如果可以的話。第一個，在戰略介紹中，我認為指導是到年底的負債率為 5%。本質上，您在本季度末已經在那裡，所以 - 我很欣賞營運資金的釋放和減記。但是，您認為在年底的負債數字方面有什麼更新嗎？

And then secondly, just bigger-picture question in terms of renewables and the [holding] side, we also are seeing higher interest rates, more difficulty accessing finance, greater desire for energy security. Do you think that starts to change the structure of some of the renewables business and gives an advantage to companies such TotalEnergies?

其次，就可再生能源和[控股]方面而言，只是更大的問題，我們也看到更高的利率，更難獲得融資，對能源安全的渴望更大。您認為這是否開始改變一些可再生能源業務的結構並為 TotalEnergies 等公司帶來優勢？

Yes. So that's true that our gearing is already below 5% with the net debt at $5 billion. It's difficult. You know that we do not have any magic figure in terms of per target. And so we will -- as the CFO, I will be more than happy to continue to strengthen my balance sheet and to continue to decrease the gearing. Having said that, in the fourth quarter, given -- assuming that we will continue to generate more or less the same level of cash flow from ops, given the target we have for CapEx at $16 billion globally on a -- for the full year, taking into account that we will continue our buyback program at $2 billion, that we will pay the special dividend, representing more or less $2.5 billion, I would say that we should remain more or less in the same ballpark, around 4% or below 5%.

是的。所以這是真的，我們的負債率已經低於 5%，淨債務為 50 億美元。它很難。你知道我們沒有任何關於每個目標的神奇數字。所以我們將——作為首席財務官，我將非常樂意繼續加強我的資產負債表並繼續降低負債率。話雖如此，在第四季度，假設我們將繼續從運營中產生或多或少相同水平的現金流，鑑於我們在全球範圍內設定的資本支出目標為 160 億美元——全年，考慮到我們將繼續進行 20 億美元的回購計劃，我們將支付或多或少 25 億美元的特別股息，我想說我們應該或多或少地保持在同一個範圍內，大約 4% 或更低5%。

Of course, it will depend on the -- once again, on the working capital. But I already mentioned that I do not anticipate as well a very strong variation for the working cap as well. So I would say, more or less at the same level as the level we had end of September. So for renewables, in fact, for sure, in that sector, it's not necessarily the same in the upstream sector, we have to face inflation and to face higher interest rates. But in fact, these additional costs, so both inflation and the higher interest rate, will be passed, in fact, to the final customers when we negotiate the PPA, when we negotiate the contract to sell the electrons. Because as you know, we target for this type of project a double-digit profitability.

當然，這將再次取決於營運資金。但我已經提到，我預計工作上限也不會有很大的變化。所以我想說，或多或少與我們 9 月底的水平相同。所以對於可再生能源，事實上，可以肯定的是，在那個領域，在上游領域不一定一樣，我們必鬚麵對通貨膨脹和更高的利率。但事實上，這些額外的成本，包括通貨膨脹和更高的利率，實際上會在我們談判 PPA 時，當我們談判出售電子的合同時，轉嫁給最終客戶。因為如您所知，我們針對此類項目的目標是實現兩位數的盈利能力。

So when we sanctioned the project, we had a clear view on the CapEx. And so we're looking at the CapEx, at that time, not to be exposed anymore to the future inflation. So we have a clear visibility on the leverage, on the cost of financing. And so we adjust in fact, the level of PPA we are ready to sign to be in a position to deliver the targeted double-digit profitability. So there is no miracle. I would say with these interest rates increase or this inflation, we don't change the threshold or we don't change the method we use to sanction projects. On the opposite, I would say that it would have the positive effect for TotalEnergies because, of course, it will clean, I would say, the competition with less companies able to enter or to continue development in that field. We have the sole advantage, less competition. So it should be profitable for us and positive for us.

因此，當我們批准該項目時，我們對資本支出有了清晰的認識。因此，我們當時正在關注資本支出，不再受到未來通脹的影響。因此，我們對槓桿和融資成本有清晰的了解。因此，我們實際上調整了我們準備簽署的 PPA 水平，以實現目標兩位數的盈利能力。所以沒有奇蹟。我想說，隨著這些利率上升或通貨膨脹，我們不會改變門檻，也不會改變我們用來製裁項目的方法。相反，我會說這將對 TotalEnergies 產生積極影響，因為當然，我會說，它將消除與能夠進入或繼續在該領域發展的較少公司的競爭。我們有唯一的優勢，競爭少。所以它應該對我們有利，對我們有利。

The next question is from Bertrand Hodee with Kepler.

下一個問題來自 Bertrand Hodee 和 Kepler。

Yes, I have just one question left. Coming back on your LNG trading performance, Jean-Pierre, you often refer to your integrated model. What in your view is making the difference? Is it because you have currently a very large access to regas capacities that you have secured that you are able, in fact, to maximize your LNG spot selling price? Or is there other reason for that outstanding performance?

是的，我只剩下一個問題了。回顧您的 LNG 交易表現，Jean-Pierre，您經常提到您的集成模型。在你看來是什麼造成了不同？是不是因為您目前擁有非常大的再加氣能力，所以您實際上能夠最大化您的液化天然氣現貨銷售價格？還是有其他原因導致如此出色的表現？

For sure, having made the acquisition of the ENGIE LNG portfolio, I think it was 3 or 4 years ago, and give us some access to 18 million tonnes of regas capacity in Europe. So it means that we have more than 50% of the global regas capacity in Europe. So it's a huge advantage to -- for our traders to play, in fact, between -- with the arbitrage between the U.S. and Europe. So for sure, it's key in this LNG trading performance. Once again, being -- having a production contract on the main ops, we have -- I remind you that we are #1 LNG exporter in the U.S. as well. So we have a strong presence in the U.S., so strong access to U.S. with more than 10 million tonnes of LNG coming from the U.S.

可以肯定的是，在收購 ENGIE LNG 產品組合後，我認為那是 3 或 4 年前的事了，這讓我們能夠在歐洲獲得 1800 萬噸的再加氣能力。因此，這意味著我們在歐洲擁有超過 50% 的全球再加氣產能。因此，我們的交易員實際上可以在美國和歐洲之間進行套利，這是一個巨大的優勢。因此，可以肯定的是，這是液化天然氣交易表現的關鍵。再一次，我們擁有主要業務的生產合同，我提醒您，我們也是美國排名第一的液化天然氣出口商。因此，我們在美國擁有強大的影響力，擁有超過 1,000 萬噸液化天然氣來自美國的強大通道。

So this adds capacity to our ships to deliver this LNG to our European customers, thanks to this regas capacity. And of course, we have, on top of that, overall subsidies of LNG in Asia, in the Middle East and customers in Asia. So all in all, it allows our traders to arbitrage between the different markets. And now given the price of the LNG, each cargo represents something like $80 million, even $100 million, for example. So when we are able reroute or to arbitrage between the different markets, of course, it's a very efficient way to maximize and -- to maximize the value coming from that business.

因此，由於這種再加氣能力，這增加了我們的船舶向我們的歐洲客戶運送這種液化天然氣的能力。當然，除此之外，我們還為亞洲、中東和亞洲客戶提供液化天然氣的全面補貼。總而言之，它允許我們的交易者在不同市場之間進行套利。現在考慮到液化天然氣的價格，例如，每批貨物的價值約為 8000 萬美元，甚至 1 億美元。因此，當我們能夠重新路由或在不同市場之間套利時，當然，這是一種非常有效的方式來最大化和 - 最大化來自該業務的價值。

The next question is from Alastair Syme with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Alastair Syme。

Jean-Pierre, it's EU solidarity tax, you mentioned the EUR 1 billion figure, but is this still an estimate, and what clarity do you have? I mean you're clearly having some negotiations with different governments. So I just wanted to understand where those negotiations stood? And then secondly, in the last few weeks, we've seen a bit of a collapse in spot gas prices in Europe. I know forward markets haven't changed as much. But did you have any perspective on why you think the spot gas prices have collapsed?

讓-皮埃爾，這是歐盟團結稅，你提到了 10 億歐元的數字，但這仍然是一個估計值，你有什麼明確的？我的意思是你顯然正在與不同的政府進行一些談判。所以我只是想了解這些談判的進展情況？其次，在過去的幾周里，我們看到歐洲的現貨天然氣價格略有下跌。我知道遠期市場沒有太大變化。但是您對您認為現貨天然氣價格暴跌的原因有任何看法嗎？

Yes. So the EU solidarity tax. So as you know, we'll be impacted by this EU solidarity tax in 6 countries in Europe. So it will be France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg. So mainly on our refining activities plus Denmark and the (inaudible) on the E&P activities. So at present time, there is a lot of uncertainties regarding the implementation of this tax because, as you know, the EU, I would say, gave a framework for the solidarity tax, and each country is supposed to adjust or to adapt this frame to locally to their own request.

是的。所以歐盟團結稅。如你所知，我們將受到歐洲 6 個國家的歐盟團結稅的影響。所以它將是法國、德國、比利時、盧森堡。所以主要是我們的煉油活動加上丹麥和（聽不清）勘探與生產活動。所以目前，這項稅收的實施存在很多不確定性，因為如你所知，歐盟，我想說，為團結稅提供了一個框架，每個國家都應該調整或調整這個框架到本地來自己的要求。

Having said that, we made a lot -- because there are uncertainties regarding the rate, the rate that will be used because the EU just gave a minimum tax rate or uncertainties regarding the use of [carry loss] forward (sic) [loss carryforward]. So there are -- and the way -- another uncertainty regarding the fact that the basis, if it would be 2022 or 2023 because in the text, you have 2022 and over 2023. So having said that, we made -- we are engineers also, so we made a lot of different calculations with different scenarios. And all in all, the conclusion that this EU solidarity tax should represent something like EUR 1 billion for the full year 2022.

話雖如此，我們做了很多——因為稅率存在不確定性，將使用的稅率是因為歐盟剛剛給出了最低稅率，或者關於使用[結轉損失]遠期（原文如此）[損失結轉]的不確定性]。因此，還有 - 以及方式 - 關於基礎的另一個不確定性，如果它是 2022 年或 2023 年，因為在文本中，你有 2022 年和 2023 年以上。話雖如此，我們做了 - 我們是工程師另外，我們針對不同的場景做了很多不同的計算。總而言之，這個歐盟團結稅應該相當於 2022 年全年的 10 億歐元。

And the EU gas price falling. Yes, for sure, at present time, we see NBP around $20 per million BTU. It was above $50 per million BTU. It was the end of August, I think. So it's a huge drop, in fact, like $20 per MBtu is not unique to us when you compare the level we had before the crisis. The main reasons or the main factor explaining this drop that you know better than I do, and so it's, of course, lower demand in Europe due to the (inaudible). So like (inaudible) that we had a certain time. And so the lower already mixed, of course, in relation with this situation.

而歐盟天然氣價格下跌。是的，可以肯定的是，目前我們看到 NBP 約為每百萬英熱單位 20 美元。它高於每百萬英熱單位 50 美元。那是八月底，我想。所以這是一個巨大的下降，事實上，當你比較危機前的水平時，每 MBtu 20 美元並不是我們獨有的。解釋這種下降的主要原因或主要因素你比我更清楚，因此，當然，由於（聽不清），歐洲的需求下降。就像（聽不清）我們有一段時間。當然，就這種情況而言，較低的已經混合了。

The tax -- the gas -- the gas stocks that are almost full, gasoline in France. And so they have been replenished over the past months. And the strong competition between EU companies and Chinese company to attract energy cargoes to Europe, that created conditions. On top of that, you had the U.K. situation with little storage capacity in the U.K. that create another subject, in fact, to evacuate the gas coming from -- coming to U.K. to other European countries.

稅收——天然氣——幾乎用完的天然氣庫存，法國的汽油。因此，它們在過去幾個月中得到了補充。歐盟公司與中國公司為吸引能源貨物進入歐洲而進行的激烈競爭，也創造了條件。最重要的是，英國的情況是英國的存儲容量很小，這創造了另一個主題，實際上是將來自英國的天然氣疏散到其他歐洲國家。

Well, having said that, the price will be highly dependent on the temperature, of course, and the final (inaudible) in Europe. Stocks are full so we anticipate that winter 2022 should not be a big concern for EU, but you will have to release the stocks for the winter 2023. And so given the lag, once again, of regas capacity of Europe to completely compensate the possible fall in Russian gas coming through pipelines, it would be highly supportive to gas prices in Europe at that time.

好吧，話雖如此，價格將在很大程度上取決於溫度，當然，以及歐洲的最終（聽不清）。庫存已滿，因此我們預計 2022 年冬季對歐盟來說不是一個大問題，但您將不得不釋放 2023 年冬季的庫存。因此，再次考慮到歐洲再一次加氣能力的滯後，以完全彌補可能俄羅斯通過管道輸送的天然氣下降，這將極大地支持當時歐洲的天然氣價格。

So that's why we -- short term, I don't know. It's a matter, once again, of volatility, temperature and consumption and so on. But middle term, so it's the message we will convey in New York when we present our outlook. We are very supportive, particularly for LNG, again, in Europe, for this traffic reasons. So the need for Europe to attract LNG cargoes to compensate the lack of the loss of gas pipe -- gas -- Russian gas.

所以這就是為什麼我們 - 短期的，我不知道。這又是一個波動性、溫度和消耗量等問題。但是中期，所以這是我們在展示我們的前景時將在紐約傳達的信息。由於交通原因，我們非常支持，特別是在歐洲，尤其是液化天然氣。所以歐洲需要吸引LNG船貨來彌補輸氣管道——天然氣——俄羅斯天然氣的損失。

Can I just clarify on the solidarity tax? The EUR 1 billion estimate, does that include the tax loss carryforwards? Or is that a gross number before you had also...

我可以澄清一下團結稅嗎？ 10 億歐元的估計，是否包括稅收損失結轉？或者那是你之前的一個總數......

(inaudible), we made some calculations defending our anticipation of what the law could be, depending on the countries. (inaudible) a big incentive not necessarily been impacted, depends on country, it depends on the situation.

（聽不清），我們做了一些計算來捍衛我們對法律可能是什麼的預期，具體取決於國家。 （聽不清）一個大的激勵措施不一定受到影響，取決於國家，取決於情況。

The next question is from Lucas Herrmann with Exane.

下一個問題來自 Lucas Herrmann 和 Exane。

A couple as well, if I might, and maybe some points of clarification on windfall taxes as well. I just wanted to go back to LNG and get some better sense of what the hedging policy is now, and the extent to which the length in the portfolio is exposed. Because one of the things I think Patrick made quite clear in New York was that there is uncertainty as to the longevity of the contracts with -- or whether there's sanctioning of the Russian contracts, which for you is an uptake, I think, 5 million tons per annum. And that as a consequence, there seems to be a reluctance to actually hedge those volumes.

如果可以的話，還有一對夫婦，也許還有一些關於暴利稅的澄清。我只是想回到液化天然氣，更好地了解現在的對沖政策，以及投資組合的長度暴露程度。因為我認為帕特里克在紐約非常清楚的一件事是，合同的期限存在不確定性——或者是否對俄羅斯合同進行製裁，我認為這對你來說是一個吸收，500 萬噸/年。因此，似乎不願意真正對沖這些交易量。

So can you give us some idea as to the extent to which the length in your portfolio, the uncovered portion of the LNG trading portfolio has increased over the course of the last few months, or will increase going into the fourth quarter? And therefore, you are more exposed to volatility in spot pricing. That was the first question. The second, just staying with that, can you give us any indication of the cash flows that you derive from trading Russian LNG? Or is that just seen as being too difficult to predict, as you said previously, and therefore, won't be disclosed as part of your disclosure of cash flow from Russia? But you've clearly taken those cash flows out when you present your strategic view going forward for 5 years, but they very clearly remain in when you present data today.

那麼，您能否告訴我們您的投資組合的長度、液化天然氣交易組合的未覆蓋部分在過去幾個月中增加的程度，或者到第四季度會增加多少？因此，您更容易受到現貨定價波動的影響。那是第一個問題。第二個問題，你能告訴我們你從俄羅斯液化天然氣交易中獲得的現金流嗎？或者，正如您之前所說，這只是被視為太難以預測，因此不會作為您披露俄羅斯現金流量的一部分進行披露？但是，當您展示您未來 5 年的戰略觀點時，您顯然已經將這些現金流量剔除，但當您今天展示數據時，它們顯然仍然存在。

And then sorry, just going back to Alastair. I'm sorry for the long list. Just to be clear, the windfall tax that you're referring to or the estimate of $1 billion, is that prorated when those taxes become applicable? I asked because it's considerably more modest than the number that you indicated again at the Strategy Day, when including the U.K. component, you talked to something near return (inaudible).

然後對不起，回到阿拉斯泰爾。對於長長的名單，我很抱歉。需要明確的是，您所指的意外之財稅或估計的 10 億美元，是在這些稅款適用時按比例分配的嗎？我問是因為它比你在戰略日再次指出的數字要小得多，當包括英國部分時，你談到了一些接近回報的東西（聽不清）。

No. No. Okay. Okay. So perhaps I will clarify this subject first. So there are 2 different subjects. So it's the windfall tax profits in the U.K. It's already implemented. So with the vote on the implementation in July retroactively to end of May. And so we mentioned in New York that assuming $35 per MBtu NBP over the first quarter, it should represent for 2022. So from end of May to the end of December, more or less $1 billion or EUR 1 billion, okay? So it was -- we put a deposit in the U.K. So it's implemented. So there is no doubt. In fact, the only uncertainty in the NBP -- NBP level at the production on which this tax will be applicable. So EUR 1 billion or less for this subject. End of September, given that we have to record over the third quarter in fact, more than 4 months of -- with tax profits in the U.K., the impact is something like $640 million, okay?

不，不，好的。好的。所以也許我會先澄清這個問題。所以有2個不同的科目。所以這是英國的暴利稅收。它已經實施了。因此，隨著 7 月實施的投票追溯至 5 月底。所以我們在紐約提到，假設第一季度每 MBtu NBP 35 美元，它應該代表 2022 年。所以從 5 月底到 12 月底，或多或少 10 億美元或 10 億歐元，好嗎？所以它是 - 我們在英國存了一筆存款，所以它已經實施了。所以毫無疑問。事實上，NBP 中唯一的不確定性——該稅將適用於生產的 NBP 水平。因此，該主題的費用為 10 億歐元或更少。 9 月底，考慮到我們實際上必須記錄第三季度，超過 4 個月——加上英國的稅收利潤，影響大約是 6.4 億美元，好嗎？

The second subject is the EU solidarity tax. So at present time, we have nothing in our accounts because, once again, there are a lot of uncertainty regarding the way this tax will be implemented. And the figure I mentioned is for this solidarity tax, so EUR 1 billion or $1 million. We gave exactly the same figure in New York. I remember well because I gave that figure. And of course, there are some discussions or uncertainty regarding when the tax will be payable, once again, the methodology. And -- but it's supposed to be a one-off that's the main difference compared to the U.K. windfall tax that is supposed to be applicable since -- until 2023 -- 2025, sorry, okay?

第二個主題是歐盟團結稅。因此，目前，我們的賬戶中沒有任何內容，因為再一次，這項稅收的實施方式存在很多不確定性。我提到的數字是針對這種團結稅的，所以是 10 億歐元或 100 萬美元。我們在紐約給出了完全相同的數字。我記得很清楚，因為我給出了那個數字。當然，關於何時繳納稅款，還有一些討論或不確定性，再次，方法論。而且 - 但它應該是一次性的，這是與英國的意外之財稅相比的主要區別，它應該適用於 - 直到 2023 - 2025 年，對不起，好嗎？

Regarding LNG hedging policy. So the -- our policy is to hedge the following 12 months. So that's what's definitely mentioned already to you many times, but with some exceptions. And so what has been mentioned regarding our Russian assets is that we do no longer hedge Russian volumes since February 2022 to take into account the uncertainty you mentioned regarding the access to the volumes. So that's our policy. So a global policy, but with an exception on Russia.

關於LNG對沖政策。所以——我們的政策是對沖接下來的 12 個月。這就是你已經多次提到的內容，但有一些例外。因此，關於我們的俄羅斯資產提到的是，自 2022 年 2 月以來，我們不再對沖俄羅斯的交易量，以考慮到您提到的關於獲得交易量的不確定性。這就是我們的政策。所以這是一項全球政策，但俄羅斯除外。

Okay. And just to be clear on those volumes, I mean 5 million is the contractual element. There was a further 1 million tons that you said you'd committed to take in 2022. So we might to take it that 6 million tons of LNG coming from Yamal at the present time is unhedged?

好的。為了清楚說明這些數量，我的意思是 500 萬是合同要素。你說你承諾在 2022 年再接收 100 萬噸。所以我們可能會認為目前來自亞馬爾的 600 萬噸液化天然氣沒有對沖？

Yes. Yamal, because we hedge only the 2 first months of 2022. So the calculation is correct. And in 2023, it will be something like 5 million tons of sales coming from Russia.

是的。亞馬爾，因為我們只對沖 2022 年的前兩個月。所以計算是正確的。到 2023 年，來自俄羅斯的銷售額將達到 500 萬噸。

Okay, which will stay unhedged. And but can you give us any indication -- please, sorry to ask in terms of the conversation (inaudible).

好的，這將保持未對沖。但是，您能否給我們任何指示——請，很抱歉就談話內容提問（聽不清）。

No. What we gave very transparently since, once again, the publication of the registration document is the cash that we -- that our Russian upstream activity are able to generate. And so you will see that in the Q2 or Q3, it represents more or less $560 million, so for the second quarter -- for the third quarter. And it will present the dividends, we are able to repatriate in our accounts. So in the Q2, it was Novatek dividends. In the Q3, it was the Yamal dividends.

不。我們提供的非常透明，因為註冊文件的發布再次是我們的現金——我們的俄羅斯上游活動能夠產生的現金。所以你會看到在第二季度或第三季度，它代表或多或少的 5.6 億美元，所以對於第二季度 - 第三季度。它將提供股息，我們能夠在我們的賬戶中匯回。所以在第二季度，這是聯詠的股息。在第三季度，是亞馬爾紅利。

And the next question is from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

下一個問題來自RBC 的Biraj Borkhataria。

Actually, I'm going to push a bit further on Lucas' question. So for the Yamal offtake, can you just confirm whether there's any restrictions on the difference between earnings and cash flow received from that side of the Russian portfolio? I get that within the equity interest of Yamal at a project level, there might be some issues on getting the cash out. But for the offtake side, should we assume the earnings flow straight to the group cash flow?

實際上，我將進一步討論盧卡斯的問題。因此，對於亞馬爾的承購，您能否確認對從俄羅斯投資組合的那一方獲得的收益和現金流之間的差異是否有任何限制？我了解到，在項目級別的亞馬爾股權範圍內，提取現金可能存在一些問題。但對於承購方，我們是否應該假設收益直接流向集團現金流？

And then the second question is just on the LNG portfolio overall. Are you able to disclose what the level of spot sales is -- or spot sales was in Q3, and what you would expect to have in Q4 as a proportion of the portfolio?

然後第二個問題只是關於整體液化天然氣投資組合。您是否能夠披露現貨銷售水平——或第三季度的現貨銷售水平，以及您期望在第四季度佔投資組合的比例？

So Yamal offtake, I'm not sure to have fully understood your question. But we gave -- so the cash we received from Russia on our assets. So it's cash received from Novatek or cash received from Yamal. And once again, you have the figure for the Q2, you have the figure for the Q3. And so I gave the indication that Q2, this represent Novatek dividends. And Q3 is for the Yamal dividend in Q3. And so a $350 million Q2, and $350 million more or less the same figure for Q3.

所以亞馬爾承接，我不確定完全理解你的問題。但是我們給了 - 所以我們從俄羅斯收到了我們資產的現金。所以它是從 Novatek 收到的現金或從 Yamal 收到的現金。再一次，你有第二季度的數據，你有第三季度的數據。所以我給出了第二季度的跡象，這代表了 Novatek 的股息。第三季度是第三季度的亞馬爾股息。因此，第二季度為 3.5 億美元，第三季度為 3.5 億美元或多或少。

Jean-Pierre, I was thinking more of the offtake side. So you, as a Total trading business are buying oil-linked volumes and selling unhedged LNG. Is it fair to assume that, that cash flow that you generate from that part of the business is -- there's no restriction on where the cash resides in terms of going straight to the group cash flow statement?

讓-皮埃爾，我更多地考慮承購方。因此，作為一家道達爾貿易公司，您正在購買與石油相關的交易量並出售未對沖的液化天然氣。是否可以公平地假設，您從該業務部分產生的現金流量是——就直接進入集團現金流量表而言，現金所在的位置沒有限制？

No. There is no sanction. There is no sanction. So our duty is to execute the contract we have. Some of the contracts we have, to sell part of the Yamal LNG volumes to Europe or to Asia. And by way, it's what the European authority are waiting for. So no, there is no restrictions. With our global portfolio, the global optimization, I already mentioned to you.

不，沒有製裁。沒有製裁。所以我們的職責是執行我們的合同。我們擁有的一些合同將亞馬爾液化天然氣的一部分出售給歐洲或亞洲。順便說一句，這正是歐洲當局正在等待的。所以不，沒有限制。通過我們的全球產品組合，全球優化，我已經向您提到過。

No, that's very clear. And then the spot LNG sales?

不，這很清楚。然後是現貨液化天然氣銷售？

Honestly, I do not have the figure for the Q3. My colleagues will come back to you. It should represent something like 2 million or 3 million tons, but -- then we'll come back to you with the precise figure.

老實說，我沒有 Q3 的數據。我的同事會回來找你的。它應該代表大約 200 萬噸或 300 萬噸，但是 - 然後我們會以準確的數字回复您。

The next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Three questions. One, can you talk about the refinery strike, why -- I think that they just -- will start in coming days for 2 of your refinery in France. Can you confirm what does that -- those 2 refinery, why now you shut down or that you'd still be able to run? That's the first question.

三個問題。一，你能談談煉油廠的罷工嗎，為什麼——我認為他們只是——將在未來幾天開始為你們在法國的兩家煉油廠。你能確認那是什麼——那兩個煉油廠，為什麼現在你關閉了，或者你仍然可以運行？這是第一個問題。

I'm sorry, but the line is very bad, and I was unable to understand your question. Sorry, could you repeat?

對不起，線路很糟糕，我無法理解你的問題。對不起，你能重複一遍嗎？

Okay. Sure. I'm referring to the reason refinery strike in France. I think the labor union that will start the strike on Monday. Can you confirm whether the facilities are currently running or that has been totally shut down on those 2 refineries?

好的。當然。我指的是法國煉油廠罷工的原因。我認為工會將於週一開始罷工。您能否確認這兩家煉油廠的設施目前是否正在運行或已完全關閉？

What I can tell you is that we have a refinery in Normandy. That was shut down almost all October month. And we have a second refinery, so in (inaudible) that was impacted as well by the strike. So more or less for October, it's 2 refineries in France that were impacted by the strikes.

我可以告訴你的是，我們在諾曼底有一家煉油廠。幾乎整個十月都關閉了。我們還有第二家煉油廠，因此（聽不清）也受到罷工的影響。因此，10 月份或多或少是法國的 2 家煉油廠受到罷工的影響。

Okay. And can you also tell us whether there's any upstream production contract, any meaningful explanation for 2023 or 2024?

好的。您能否也告訴我們是否有任何上游生產合同，對 2023 年或 2024 年有任何有意義的解釋嗎？

Sorry, I haven't understood. So it's about the upstream contracts, but what is your question, on lease contracts?

抱歉，我沒看懂。所以這是關於上游合同的，但是關於租賃合同，你有什麼問題？

Any meaningful upstream production contract will expire in 2023 or in 2024?

任何有意義的上游生產合同將在 2023 年或 2024 年到期？

You mean the development contracts?

你是說開發合同？

No. Consumption contract like you have (inaudible) contract. (inaudible) one contract expire early this year. I just want to know if there's any other meaningful production contracts in your portfolio will be expired in 2023?

沒有。像你有（聽不清）合同一樣的消費合同。 （聽不清）一份合同將於今年年初到期。我只是想知道您的投資組合中是否還有其他有意義的生產合同將在 2023 年到期？

What do you mean value operation contracts?

價值運營合同是什麼意思？

Your operating contracts.

您的經營合同。

Okay. Honestly, I have nothing in mind because we have -- the end of the (inaudible) non-renewable, the Qatargas 1 contract, it was end of last year. So we have the same on Bangkok in Thailand. So we withdraw from Myanmar, just to remind you the main contract that were indeed very recently. But on top of that, in the current month, I do not think it will be -- I have nothing in mind -- I have nothing sizable in mind, no. And by the way, the production is supposed to grow over the next couple of years.

好的。老實說，我沒有任何想法，因為我們有 - （聽不清）不可更新的卡塔爾加斯 1 合同的結束，那是去年年底。所以我們在泰國的曼谷也有同樣的情況。所以我們從緬甸撤軍，只是為了提醒您確實是最近才出現的主要合同。但最重要的是，在本月，我認為不會——我沒有任何想法——我沒有什麼可觀的想法，不。順便說一句，產量應該會在未來幾年內增長。

The next question is from Amy Wong with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。

Jean-Pierre, a couple of questions from me, please. The first one is on your Casa dos Ventos acquisition in Brazil announced yesterday. What kind of debt levels sit in CDV at the moment? And what kind of CapEx per megawatt should we be expecting for that development pipeline? And then my second question relates to just your capital return policy. I think at the Capital Markets Day, Patrick said that the 35% to 40% cash flow to shareholders had a soft ceiling, what kind of conditions would we have to see you guys go beyond that ceiling?

請讓-皮埃爾問我幾個問題。第一個是你昨天宣布的在巴西收購 Casa dos Ventos。目前 CDV 的債務水平如何？對於該開發管道，我們應該期望每兆瓦什麼樣的資本支出？然後我的第二個問題與您的資本回報政策有關。我認為在資本市場日，帕特里克說，35% 到 40% 的股東現金流有一個軟上限，我們需要什麼樣的條件才能看到你們超越這個上限？

Yes. So the capital return policy. So yes, we're very clear in the guidance given by the Board, the information of the guidance we gave to the market end of September. The condition -- having said that, you're right that Patrick Pouyanné mentioned that 40% is not the limit. So the 45%, 40% is the guidance, but there is no limit. In fact, the 40% is not a ceiling. So what would commit us to go beyond that? Of course, it's the environment is at a very, very high level. So if you have, at the same time, oil, gas prices, refining margins, petro chem, all our business that is trading, are performing particularly well. That's what I can tell you.

是的。所以資本回報政策。所以是的，我們在董事會給出的指導中非常清楚，我們在 9 月底向市場提供的指導信息。條件——話雖如此，你說得對，Patrick Pouyanné 提到 40% 不是極限。所以45%、40%是指導，但沒有限制。事實上，40%並不是一個上限。那麼，什麼會讓我們超越這一點呢？當然，它的環境是非常非常高的水平。因此，如果您同時擁有石油、天然氣價格、煉油利潤、石油化工以及我們所有的交易業務，則表現特別好。這就是我可以告訴你的。

On the Brazil acquisition, so we announced yesterday. So it's -- the fact that we will create a joint venture with Casa dos Ventos, so we buy this. It's the largest renewable energy developer in Brazil. We will have a stake of 34% in that JV, but having an option to acquire an additional 50%, so that to be more or less 50-50 in the coming years in the (inaudible). The CapEx per megawatt, I think, is not very relevant given the fact that we acquired 50% of the portfolio already in production or at early stage, but also 50% of the portfolio that will come -- that will be developed in the coming years. All in all, so we pay the front cash payment of $550 million. So I think it's particularly in line with our objectives to have assets able to deliver return on equity above 10%. But once again, the comparison with the other portfolio, I think in that case, it's not very relevant.

關於巴西的收購，所以我們昨天宣布了。因此，事實上我們將與 Casa dos Ventos 建立合資企業，所以我們購買了這個。它是巴西最大的可再生能源開發商。我們將擁有該合資企業 34% 的股份，但可以選擇額外收購 50%，以便在未來幾年（聽不清）或多或少 50-50。我認為，每兆瓦的資本支出並不是很相關，因為我們已經獲得了 50% 的投資組合已經投入生產或處於早期階段，而且還有 50% 的投資組合將在未來開發年。總而言之，所以我們支付了 5.5 億美元的前期現金付款。因此，我認為讓資產能夠實現 10% 以上的股本回報率特別符合我們的目標。但是再一次，與其他投資組合的比較，我認為在那種情況下，它不是很相關。

Okay. Can I squeeze in a quick one? It's nice to see that you guys are putting in a 1-month salary bonus for all employees. Could you just comment -- I mean, give me just an idea of the size -- what the total amount of that has been accrued in your 3Q numbers?

好的。我可以快速擠一個嗎？很高興看到你們為所有員工發放 1 個月的工資獎金。你能否評論一下——我的意思是，給我一個關於規模的想法——你的 3Q 數字中累積的總量是多少？

Right. It represent more or less 7% of the global salary cost, but it will be capped. So there will be a minimum, but it will be capped as well to a 6 -- EUR 1,000 per employee. So more or less 7% of the salary costs, worldwide. It's not in my Q3 numbers. It will be in my Q4 numbers, of course.

正確的。它或多或少佔全球工資成本的 7%，但會有上限。所以會有最低限度，但也將上限為每名員工 6 - 1,000 歐元。因此，全球範圍內或多或少佔工資成本的 7%。這不在我的第三季度數字中。當然，它將在我的第四季度數字中。

The next question is from Henri Patricot with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Henri Patricot。

Just one quick question left, which is around the lag effect on dividends from equity affiliates that you mentioned. Is that something that is meaningful and we should expect a catch-up in the fourth quarter, maybe beginning of next year? Any details on that would be helpful.

剩下一個簡單的問題，即您提到的股權關聯公司對股息的滯後效應。這是否有意義，我們應該期待在第四季度趕上，也許是明年年初？這方面的任何細節都會有所幫助。

Well, it's obvious that we -- the performance in the Q3 is particularly linked to the performance in the energy sector. And so the LNG business is in the majority of the (inaudible) accounting on an equity basis. So that means that, of course, you have, on your net operating income, the immediate effects of the performance. But in cash flow generated from operations, of course, you have to wait for the dividends at all. There are some rules depending on the country, depending on the partnerships. And so it's not -- you do not have an immediate effect on your cash flow, FFO.

嗯，很明顯，我們 - 第三季度的表現與能源部門的表現特別相關。因此，液化天然氣業務的大部分（聽不清）以權益為基礎進行會計處理。這意味著，當然，您的淨營業收入對業績有直接影響。但在運營產生的現金流中，當然，你必須等待分紅。有一些規則取決於國家，取決於合作夥伴關係。所以它不是 - 你不會立即影響你的現金流，FFO。

So yes, there is a time line effect between the increase of impact on the net operating income, and the impact you will have on the cash flow from it. So I cannot answer to you. It depends on the geography, it depends on the business. So it's a time line between, I would say, around 6 months, something like that. It depends because on some geographies you are able to put in place interim dividends to accelerate, in fact, the cash out from the businesses. In the sum of [normalcy], you have to wait because they are just one dividend value. So it's a mix between the different situations.

所以，是的，在對淨營業收入的影響增加與您對現金流的影響之間存在時間線效應。所以我無法回答你。這取決於地理位置，取決於業務。所以這是一個時間線，我會說，大約 6 個月，類似的時間。這取決於某些地區，您可以派發中期股息以加速，事實上，從業務中提取現金。在 [normalcy] 的總和中，您必須等待，因為它們只是一個股息值。所以這是不同情況之間的混合。

The last question is from Kim Fustier with HSBC.

最後一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

I had 2 questions, please. The first one is that I was intrigued by your comments that you're not seeing cost inflation in upstream other than that coming from higher energy costs. We're hearing from other companies that rates were going up, labor costs, supply chains. So I was wondering if you could offer any more color on upstream costs and the broader operating and sanctioning environment in the upstream. My second question is on refining. And specifically, if you could give an update on the Leuna refinery in Germany that used to be supplied exclusively by Russian pipeline crude. Now that we're a little more than a month away from the start of the EU embargo in December, is the Leuna refinery now able to fully run on non-Russian seaborne crude?

我有2個問題，請。第一個是我對您的評論很感興趣，即您沒有看到上游成本上漲，除了來自更高的能源成本。我們從其他公司那裡聽說費率、勞動力成本和供應鏈都在上漲。所以我想知道你是否可以提供更多關於上游成本以及上游更廣泛的運營和製裁環境的顏色。我的第二個問題是關於精煉。具體來說，如果您能提供有關德國 Leuna 煉油廠的最新信息，該煉油廠過去完全由俄羅斯管道原油供應。現在距離 12 月歐盟禁運開始還有一個多月的時間，Leuna 煉油廠現在能夠完全使用非俄羅斯海運原油嗎？

No cost inflation. Yes, so I confirm my comment that at present time, given that we are not very present in the U.S. share, we do not see really inflation in our costs. Of course, still, weather difficulties. I have in mind projects that was presented, I think it was 6 months ago, it was just after the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. And at that time, the teams came to the (inaudible) with -- asking us to sanction the project, with an impact on the steel price around plus 40%, something like that. So at that time, we said, no. We are not in a hurry to sanction projects. And so it's the way we mitigate, in fact, this cost inflation, if in some contracts, we have to face this situation.

沒有成本膨脹。是的，所以我確認我的評論，目前，鑑於我們在美國的份額並不多，我們並沒有看到我們的成本真正出現通貨膨脹。當然，仍然，天氣困難。我想到了展示的項目，我認為是 6 個月前，就在烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間的戰爭開始之後。那時，團隊來到（聽不清）——要求我們批准該項目，對鋼鐵價格的影響約為 40%，類似這樣。所以當時，我們說，不。我們並不急於製裁項目。所以這是我們減輕成本膨脹的方式，事實上，如果在某些合同中，我們必鬚麵對這種情況。

We are not in a hurry, so we have to be patient. We have time, in fact, we sanction project as such -- [volume ready]. But obviously, at present time, given, globally, the under investment that has been done by all the oil and gas companies since 2015 or 2016, globally, we do not see a strong inflation. And so we do not anticipate strong inflation in our books in the coming months.

我們並不著急，所以我們必須耐心等待。我們有時間，事實上，我們會批准這樣的項目——[準備好卷]。但顯然，目前，鑑於全球範圍內所有石油和天然氣公司自 2015 年或 2016 年以來的投資不足，在全球範圍內，我們並未看到強勁的通脹。因此，我們預計未來幾個月不會出現強勁的通脹。

Russia. Yes, so Leuna was designed, in fact, to run a while, to run Russian crude. So as you know, and so we are very clear, it was very early in the year, which was in March when we published our rule of conduct regarding Russia that we no longer buy any spot Russian crude to supply our refineries. And of course, Leuna -- particularly the case for Leuna.

俄羅斯。是的，所以事實上，Leuna 的設計目的是運行一段時間，運行俄羅斯原油。如您所知，我們非常清楚，今年早些時候，也就是 3 月，我們發布了關於俄羅斯的行為準則，我們不再購買任何現貨俄羅斯原油來供應我們的煉油廠。當然，還有 Leuna——尤其是 Leuna。

Before the crisis, almost 100% of the crude run in Leuna was Russian crude. I think the right figure is 95%. So we have to find alternatives. And so the alternatives will come from the pipe coming from Poland, in fact. And so we had to import seaborne crudes to compensate the lack of the loss of Russian crude. I will not tell you that it's easy. We are very clear where, of course, we have discussion with German authorities to make them aware of these difficulties, of this concern. So we think -- at present time, it's -- it was feasible to have more or less 800 kiloton of amount per -- despite coming from Poland. We'll see in the next future if we continue with this alternative source to supply the Leuna refinery.

在危機之前，Leuna 幾乎 100% 的原油是俄羅斯原油。我認為正確的數字是 95%。所以我們必須尋找替代品。事實上，替代品將來自波蘭的管道。所以我們不得不進口海運原油來彌補俄羅斯原油損失的不足。我不會告訴你這很容易。我們很清楚，當然，我們在哪裡與德國當局進行了討論，以使他們意識到這些困難，這種擔憂。所以我們認為 - 目前，儘管來自波蘭，但每人或多或少 800 公斤的數量是可行的。如果我們繼續使用這種替代來源來供應 Leuna 煉油廠，我們將在未來看到。

Okay. So I think it was the last question. Okay. So thank you very much for your time. And so I will give you a rendezvous, I think now it will be in February for the 2022 results. Thank you again. Bye-bye.

好的。所以我認為這是最後一個問題。好的。非常感謝您抽出寶貴時間。所以我會給你一個約會，我想現在是在 2 月，因為 2022 年的結果。再次感謝你。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。