台積電 ADR (TSM) 2002 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's Q2 2002 results webcast conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2002 年第二季度業績網絡廣播電話會議。

Today's event is hosted by Mr. Harvey Chang, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer and Dr. Tsai, President and Chief Operating Officer.

今天的活動由高級副總裁兼首席信息官Harvey Chang先生和總裁兼首席運營官蔡博士主持。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.TSMC.com.

本次電話會議將通過台積電網站 www.TSMC.com 進行網絡直播。

And only in audio mode.

並且僅在音頻模式下。

Your dial-in lines are also in a listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。

This call is being recorded at the request of TSMC.

應台積電的要求，正在錄製此通話。

If there are any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

At the conclusion of management presentation we will be opening the floor for questions.

在管理演示結束時，我們將開始提問。

At that time further instructions will be provided as to the procedure to follow if you would like to ask any questions.

屆時，如果您想提出任何問題，我們將提供有關應遵循的程序的進一步說明。

Please be advised. for those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release. you may download it directly from the TSMC website at WWW.TSMC.com.

請注意。對於那些還沒有新聞稿副本的參與者。您可以直接從 TSMC 網站 WWW.TSMC.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

Once again, the URL is WWW.TSMC.com.

再一次，URL 是 WWW.TSMC.com。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Leon Chu (ph) Head of Investor Relations for TSMC. for the cautionary statement before the main presentation by Mr. Chang and Dr. Tsai.

我現在想將會議轉交給台積電投資者關係主管 Leon Chu (ph) 先生。對於張先生和蔡博士的主要演講之前的警示性聲明。

Good morning and good evening to all participants.

祝所有參與者早上好，晚上好。

This is Leon Chu, Head of Investor Relations for TSMC.

我是台積電投資者關係主管 Leon Chu。

Before we begin our conference call, I would like to state that the management's comments about TSMC's current expectations made during this conference call are forward-looking statements, subject to significant risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始電話會議之前，我想聲明管理層在電話會議期間對台積電當前預期的評論是前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements, may be found in TSMC's annual report on form 20-S, filed with the United States Security and Exchange Commission on May 9, 2002.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，可以在台積電於 2002 年 5 月 9 日提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-S 表格年度報告中找到。

And such other documents as the Company may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time.

以及公司可能不時向美國證券交易委員會提交或提交的其他文件。

And now, I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Harvey Chang, our Senior Vice President and the Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我想將電話會議轉交給我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Harvey Chang 先生。

Thank you Leon.

謝謝萊昂。

Hello everyone.

大家好。

I would like to welcome all of you to come to our second quarter results conference call.

我想歡迎大家參加我們的第二季度業績電話會議。

I will begin by making sort of a quick summary on our second quarter results, and then we will open the floor for questions.

我將首先對我們的第二季度業績做一個快速總結，然後我們將開始提問。

To begin with, let me begin by giving you a very quick highlight of what happened during second quarter.

首先，讓我先簡要介紹一下第二季度發生的事情。

For our second quarter this year, actually our total wafer shipment have reached 719,000 wafers, which has brought up our utilization to the level of 85%.

今年第二季度，實際上我們的晶圓總出貨量達到了 719,000 片，這使我們的利用率達到了 85% 的水平。

This is roughly 20% growth versus our wafer shipment in the first quarter.

與我們第一季度的晶圓出貨量相比，這大約增長了 20%。

Our total revenue for the second quarter is in the dollar 44 billion.

我們第二季度的總收入為 440 億美元。

Our net profit after tax, roughly 9.3 billion, which are equivalent to 49 cents in the dollar, per share.

我們的稅後淨利潤約為 93 億美元，相當於每股 49 美分。

If we compare these numbers to the same period last year, our second quarter revenue 44.1 billion has showed a much higher growth rate of 68%, and our gross profit 16.4 billion or 229% higher than the same period last year.

如果我們將這些數字與去年同期相比，我們第二季度的收入 441 億增長了 68%，我們的毛利潤比去年同期高出 164 億或 229%。

Gross margin is 30% -- 37% versus last year's 19%.

毛利率為 30% - 37%，而去年為 19%。

And our operating profits are 11.9 billion NT, and net profit after tax 9.3, versus last year which was only .3 billion.

營業利潤119億新台幣，稅後淨利潤9.3，而去年僅為3億。

So all these numbers are way higher than what we had the same period last year.

因此，所有這些數字都遠高於我們去年同期的數字。

If you take a look at balance sheet cash flow, we can see that our financial structure continues to remain sound, and we continue to have a very strong balance sheet.

如果你看一下資產負債表的現金流，我們可以看到我們的財務結構繼續保持穩健，我們的資產負債表繼續非常強勁。

In terms of our cash positions, actually end of second quarter, our total cash on hand have reached 66.4 billion, which is roughly 28 billion higher than last year.

從我們的現金頭寸來看，實際上第二季度末，我們手頭的總現金已經達到了664億，比去年增加了大約280億。

Our debt has increased to 6 billion, and the total assets, which is roughly 37 -- 375 billion and it's about 11% higher than the same period last year.

我們的債務已經增加到60億，總資產大約是37-3750億，比去年同期增長了11%左右。

The depreciation amortization number for the second quarter is roughly 14 billion NT, compared to last year's 11.9.

第二季度折舊攤銷數約為 140 億新台幣，而去年為 11.9。

Total capital expenditure this quarter is roughly 10.4 billion compared to 18.3 last year.

本季度總資本支出約為 104 億，而去年為 18.3。

Our ROE for the second quarter long, after annualized, is around 11.2% versus 6.6 last year second quarter.

年化後，我們第二季度的 ROE 約為 11.2%，而去年第二季度為 6.6。

And our return on asset is 9.5% versus 5.6% last year.

我們的資產回報率為 9.5%，而去年為 5.6%。

On the sequential comparison basis, if you compare to our -- our first quarter this year and our growth rate in terms of revenue is roughly 23%.

在連續比較的基礎上，如果你與我們相比 - 我們今年第一季度的收入增長率約為 23%。

This 23% basically is what we have stated that the wafer shipments have already grown 20%.

這 23% 基本上就是我們所說的晶圓出貨量已經增長了 20%。

Also we see a modest increase in terms of ASP that would compare the second quarter ASP versus the first quarter.

此外，我們還看到 ASP 的適度增長，這將與第二季度的 ASP 與第一季度相比。

Due to the increase of wafer shipment, our utilization grew from the first quarter's 67% to as high as 85% second quarter.

由於晶圓出貨量的增加，我們的利用率從第一季度的 67% 增長到第二季度的高達 85%。

And our gross margin grew from 34% first quarter to 37%.

我們的毛利率從第一季度的 34% 增長到 37%。

Gross profit also grew 37% from first quarter.

毛利潤也比第一季度增長了 37%。

On the operating expenses. second quarter operating expenses is roughly 44.5 billion -- I'm sorry 4.45 billion which is roughly 10% of the total revenue versus 11% in the first quarter.

關於營業費用。第二季度的運營費用約為 445 億美元——抱歉 44.5 億美元，約佔總收入的 10%，而第一季度為 11%。

Our operating income is 11.9 billion which is 46% higher than first quarter.

我們的營業收入為119億，比第一季度增長46%。

After tax 5.3 which is also roughly 41% higher than first quarter.

稅後 5.3，也比第一季度高出約 41%。

Also let's take a look at the balance sheet and cash flow on a sequential basis.

另外，讓我們按順序看一下資產負債表和現金流量。

On a sequential basis, actually we don't see a significant change except that we see that we have a higher cash balance at end of second quarter.

在連續的基礎上，實際上我們沒有看到重大變化，除了我們看到我們在第二季度末有更高的現金餘額。

And also amortization, which increased from first quarter's 12.8 to 14 in the second quarter.

還有攤銷，從第一季度的 12.8 增加到第二季度的 14。

Capital expenditure last quarter was 6.6 billion NT, and this quarter is 10.4.

上季度資本支出為66億新台幣，本季度為10.4。

ROE increased from first quarter 5.4 to a second quarter 11.2.

ROE 從第一季度的 5.4 上升到第二季度的 11.2。

ROA also increased from 8.1 to 9.5%.

ROA 也從 8.1% 增加到 9.5%。

Let's take a look at the business side in the second quarter.

讓我們看一下第二季度的業務方面。

First we going to see is the revenue break down by terms of technology.

首先，我們將看到按技術劃分的收入。

As you can see from this graph, that actually our .13 is roughly one percent, which is the red color on the top.

從這張圖中可以看出，實際上我們的 0.13 大約是 1%，也就是頂部的紅色。

So one percent of total revenue in first quarter and second quarter also one percent.

所以第一季度和第二季度總收入的百分之一也是百分之一。

And almost 5 -- 30% first quarter, actually it was down a little bit to 29%.

第一季度幾乎是 5 - 30%，實際上下降了一點點到 29%。

In terms of absolute dollars, actually also continue to went up.

以絕對美元計，實際上也在繼續上漲。

Eventually they went up 19%.

最終他們上漲了 19%。

So on the .13, I just stated, although it stay at one percent, actually the actual dollar value does goes up roughly 23%.

所以在 0.13 上，我剛剛說過，雖然它保持在 1%，但實際美元價值確實上漲了大約 23%。

.18, stay flat 22%, which means dollar value 23% growth.

.18，持平 22%，這意味著美元價值增長 23%。

.25 actually came down from 25% to 23%.

.25 實際上從 25% 下降到 23%。

Dollar wise, actually they went up 14%.

以美元計，實際上它們上漲了 14%。

.35 go up from 13% to 14%.

.35 從 13% 上升到 14%。

So dollar wise it means it go up about 33%.

所以從美元的角度來看，這意味著它上漲了大約 33%。

And the .5 from 9% first quarter to 11%, so dollar wise went up roughly 51%.

從第一季度的 9% 到 11% 的 0.5，因此美元明智地上漲了大約 51%。

So that's the revenue breakdown by technology.

這就是按技術劃分的收入細分。

And if we look at the different applications in terms of computer communication and consumers, and we will see actually we see fairly significant change, actually in the second quarter.

如果我們看看計算機通信和消費者方面的不同應用，我們會看到實際上我們看到了相當顯著的變化，實際上是在第二季度。

Here, let's see.

在這裡，讓我們看看。

At this time I wanted to [INAUDIBLE] from the bottom..

這時候我想從底部[聽不清]..

The bottom, the purple color.

底部，紫色。

The first quarter was computer was 56%.

第一季度是計算機佔 56%。

We come to the second quarter this is 45% on the computer.

我們來到第二季度，這是計算機上的 45%。

And then the green color -- the green color which is the communications was 18% actually in first quarter, they go up quite a bit to 26% on the second quarter.

然後是綠色——通信的綠色在第一季度實際上是 18%，在第二季度上升了很多，達到 26%。

When you go up to 26% dollar wise that means it went up close to 80%.

當您以美元計價上漲至 26% 時，這意味著它上漲了接近 80%。

Consumer from 21% to 23%.

消費者從 21% 到 23%。

Memory from 2% to 3%.

內存從 2% 到 3%。

Others remain flat at roughly 3%.

其他人則保持在大約 3% 左右。

So that's very significant change in terms of the sales break down by computer and the communications.

因此，就計算機和通信的銷售細分而言，這是非常重大的變化。

Let me talk a little bit more about these segments.

讓我多談談這些部分。

Actually, during the quarter we see, actually on the computer side, I think the weakening application side area of graphics and chip sets, the area that still show pretty good gross momentum is flat panel display as well as [INAUDIBLE].

實際上，在本季度我們看到，實際上在計算機方面，我認為圖形和芯片組的應用方面正在減弱，仍然表現出相當不錯的總體勢頭的領域是平板顯示器以及[聽不清]。

On the communication segment, actually [INAUDIBLE] wireless.

在通信部分，實際上 [聽不清] 無線。

The wire line show good growth momentum during the second quarter.

線材二季度增長勢頭良好。

The strongest sub segment is still coming from the wireless segment.

最強的細分市場仍來自無線細分市場。

Primarily on the mobile phone hand set, on the wireless LAN, as well as cordless phone.

主要是在手機上，在無線局域網上，還有無繩電話上。

The wireless have good gross.

無線有很好的總和。

And their gross area are in the area of Ethernet switch, network interface card, as well as ADSL.

其總面積在以太網交換機、網絡接口卡以及ADSL領域。

On the consumer side, actually have stated this from 21 to 23%.

在消費者方面，實際表示這一比例為21%至23%。

dollar wise it means it's 35% growth.

以美元計，這意味著它的增長率為 35%。

The stronger sub segment are in the areas of the DVD, VCD, digital camera, set up box.

較強的細分市場在 DVD、VCD、數碼相機、機頂盒領域。

These are the growth areas.

這些是增長領域。

Let's go on to the next one in terms of geographic distribution.

讓我們在地理分佈方面繼續下一個。

We don't see a lot of change in terms of geographical distribution.

在地理分佈方面，我們沒有看到很多變化。

Actually, North American continues to be the dominant segment of geographic distributions in second quarter.

實際上，北美仍然是第二季度地理分佈的主要部分。

North American account for 79% of the total revenue.

北美佔總收入的 79%。

Europe stay at straight.

歐洲保持直線。

Asia Pacific actually went down a little bit from 14 to 12.

亞太地區實際上從 14 點下降到 12 點。

Japan go up from 5 to 6%.

日本從 5% 上升到 6%。

Next if we look at distribution between Fabless and the IDMs, then we will see actually the IDM actually grow a little bit actually on the second quarter.

接下來，如果我們看一下 Fabless 和 IDM 之間的分佈，那麼我們將看到 IDM 實際上在第二季度實際上增長了一點。

The IDM actually grew from the first quarter's 21% to 26%, which actually is pretty good growth in terms of the distributions.

IDM 實際上從第一季度的 21% 增長到 26%，這在分配方面實際上是相當不錯的增長。

The Fabless from 73 to 7 -- 78 down to 73.

Fabless 從 73 到 7 - 78 到 73。

But still I think they are the dominant segment during the second quarter.

但我仍然認為它們是第二季度的主導部分。

And then on the Fab utilization and the ASP trend, I have already indicated that the second quarter utilization was 85%, big jump from the 67%.

然後在 Fab 利用率和 ASP 趨勢上，我已經指出第二季度的利用率是 85%，從 67% 大幅躍升。

And first quarter ASP was essentially flat.

第一季度平均售價基本持平。

So we see a modest growth in terms of ASP in the second quarter versus the first quarter.

因此，我們看到第二季度的 ASP 與第一季度相比略有增長。

Next one we are going to give you this table which will outline the store capacity by different Fabs.

下一個我們將為您提供這張表格，該表格將概述不同 Fab 的存儲容量。

We are going to tell you that what we have at end of June, and what we plan to have at end of December.

我們將告訴您，我們在 6 月底擁有什麼，以及我們計劃在 12 月底擁有什麼。

You will see two columns of separate -- the right-hand side column on December is actually what we have gave you during last conference call, but I think we change modest in terms of our plans.

你會看到兩列獨立的——12 月的右側列實際上是我們在上次電話會議期間給你的，但我認為我們的計劃變化不大。

The most noticeable I think for the Fab 12 originally it was meant to be 13,000 wafers per month end of this year.

我認為最引人注目的是 Fab 12，它原本打算在今年年底每月生產 13,000 片晶圓。

We actually revised that down a little bit to 10,000 wafers.

實際上，我們將其稍微修改為 10,000 個晶圓。

Basically to cope with the demand situation, and I think it takes a little bit longer for the customers to jump into the 12-inch.

基本應付需求情況，我覺得客戶跳進12寸的時間要長一點。

So I think you have all those numbers and I will not bore you with that.

因此，我認為您擁有所有這些數字，我不會對此感到厭煩。

I think you can look at that later on.

我想你可以稍後再看。

Last one we going to talk to you about are overall capacity plans.

我們要與您討論的最後一個是整體容量計劃。

And basically this graph will give you an idea where we stand in terms of our most advanced technologies, which actually is the orange one there.

基本上，這張圖表會讓您了解我們在最先進技術方面的立場，實際上是那裡的橙色技術。

Down on the bottom is .13 the blue one is .15.

底部是 0.13，藍色的是 0.15。

And the red one is .18.

紅色的是 0.18。

As you can see, they grew quite rapidly, actually in the last several quarters.

正如你所看到的，它們增長得相當快，實際上是在過去幾個季度。

For this quarter -- or for last quarter, actually for .18 and more advanced technology, they accounted for roughly 30% of our total capacity.

對於本季度或上一季度，實際上對於 0.18 和更先進的技術，它們約占我們總產能的 30%。

And as we indicated, at that time, we think that the .18 and advance would account for 47% of our total capacity by the end of this year.

正如我們所指出的那樣，當時我們認為 .18 和預付款到今年年底將占我們總產能的 47%。

And we have also realized a little bit right now we plan to have about 42% of our total capacity in .18 advanced technology at the end of this year.

而且我們現在也意識到了一點，我們計劃在今年年底將我們總產能的 42% 用於 .18 先進技術。

With that, I think the last, actually we have a basically a recap of the major events that happened in the second quarter this year.

有了這個，我認為最後，實際上我們基本上回顧了今年第二季度發生的重大事件。

And, again, I think I will not read through each one of them.

而且，我想我不會逐一閱讀。

But I do want to mention the bullet point regarding the independent directors that in May, during our shareholder meetings, that we have elected two additional members of the board which are Mr. Lester Thurow a professor at MIT.

但我確實想提一下關於獨立董事的要點，即 5 月，在我們的股東大會上，我們選舉了另外兩名董事會成員，他們是麻省理工學院教授 Lester Thurow 先生。

And Peter Bonfield former CEO of British Telecom to serve as our independent director.

而英國電信前首席執行官彼得·邦菲爾德（Peter Bonfield）將擔任我們的獨立董事。

Also we have invited Mr. Michael Porter to join our supervisory group.

我們還邀請了 Michael Porter 先生加入我們的監督小組。

And this are done, I think, certainly with the purpose or objective to further enhance our corporate governance structure.

我認為，這樣做肯定是為了進一步加強我們的公司治理結構。

Also, I think our chairman, Morris Chang, during today's conference call he has indicated that it is our plan to submit to the board that will be held in August this year, that we are going to form an audit committee under the board, at our August board meeting, and the audit committee will consist of three to four members.

另外，我認為我們的董事長張忠謀在今天的電話會議中表示，我們計劃向將於今年 8 月舉行的董事會提交，我們將在董事會下成立一個審計委員會，在我們八月份的董事會會議，審計委員會將由三到四名成員組成。

They will be primarily be independent directors as well as members of our supervisory board.

他們將主要是獨立董事以及我們的監事會成員。

[ INAUDIBLE ] and they were elected as the chairman for audit committee, so we don't know who that person is going to be.

[聽不清] 他們被選為審計委員會主席，所以我們不知道那個人會是誰。

We will certainly, I think, keep all our shareholders posted on the development on their side.

我認為，我們肯定會讓我們所有的股東都站在他們這邊。

Now, I think actually we talk about second quarter also maybe I will let Rick talk a little bit about our coming quarter guidance.

現在，我認為實際上我們談論的是第二季度，也許我會讓 Rick 談談我們下一季度的指導。

Rick, I hand over the floor to you.

瑞克，我把地板交給你。

All right.

好的。

I think the - good morning, good evening.

我想——早上好，晚上好。

I think the guidance we are giving out for the third quarter is as follows.

我認為我們為第三季度提供的指導如下。

One, the shift in customer demand to communications and consumer applications during second quarter 2002 is expected to continue into the third quarter.

第一，2002 年第二季度客戶需求向通信和消費應用的轉變預計將持續到第三季度。

Second, the amount of wafers shipped will be off modestly by about a low single digit percentage rate on a sequential basis.

其次，出貨的晶圓數量將在連續的基礎上以大約低個位數的百分比適度下降。

Three, ASP will be 5% lower sequential, due to the product mix shift.

第三，由於產品組合的轉變，平均售價將比環比下降 5%。

Four, gross margin will be adversely impacted by the depreciation in the U.S. dollar.

四、毛利率將受到美元貶值的不利影響。

We have assumed a U.S. dollar depreciation of 5% in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter.

我們假設與第二季度相比，第三季度美元貶值 5%。

In that case our gross margin may be reduced by about 2.2% due to this factor alone..

在這種情況下，僅由於這個因素，我們的毛利率可能會降低約 2.2%。

Number 5, overall capacity utilization rate will be in the low 70's, due to both softening demand on the back of it, and also we also have an increase in our capacity by about 11.5%, compared to the second quarter.

第五，整體產能利用率將處於 70 年代的低位，由於其背後的需求疲軟，而且與第二季度相比，我們的產能也增加了約 11.5%。

With the result of the softening demand, we have lowered our Cap-X in 2002 to below U.S. 2 billion.

由於需求疲軟，我們已將 2002 年的 Cap-X 降至 20 億美元以下。

We also, the last one is that, July revenue will be seasonably lower compared to June.

我們也是，最後一個是，與 6 月相比，7 月的收入將季節性地下降。

That's our guidance for the third quarter.

這是我們對第三季度的指導。

We are ready to answer some questions.

我們準備回答一些問題。

On the July revenue because, according to the Taiwan regulation, actually before the 10th of each following month, we will announce the revenue number of July which is roughly two weeks from now.

關於7月份的收入，因為按照台灣的規定，實際上在接下來的每個月10號之前，我們都會公佈7月份的收入數字，大約是從現在開始的兩週。

And I think Morris has actually indicated that this afternoon that we, right now, our forecast show that July will be lower number, and -- but he asks people to relax.

而且我認為莫里斯實際上已經在今天下午表示，我們現在的預測顯示 7 月份的數字會更低，而且 - 但他要求人們放鬆一下。

Don't get panicked because on an overall basis, it is sort of turns out the percentage of falling is a little bit high, but is not going to be accelerated.

不要驚慌，因為總的來說，下降的百分比有點高，但不會加速。

So I think we just want to give you that forewarning and ask you not to panic about when you see the July number.

所以我想我們只是想給你一個預警，並請你不要因為看到 7 月的數字而感到恐慌。

The other thing I think I can compliment on Rick's guidance, is that during the Q & A sessions that people further ask about these trends, the demand switching to communication and consumer and the weakening demand from computer segment and how significant is this.

我認為我可以對 Rick 的指導表示讚賞的另一件事是，在問答環節中，人們進一步詢問了這些趨勢、需求轉向通信和消費者以及計算機領域的需求減弱以及這有多麼重要。

And we have seen that the computer first quarter 56% and fall to 45%.

而我們已經看到計算機第一季度下降了 56% 和 45%。

And I have indicated in the afternoon I think the computer segment weighting will probably fall to below 33%, and the weighting on communications will actually go up more than 1/3 during the second quarter I think that's an indication on the trend.

我在下午曾表示，我認為計算機領域的權重可能會降至 33% 以下，而通信領域的權重實際上會在第二季度上升 1/3 以上，我認為這是趨勢的一個跡象。

So with all that I think that -- Rick I don't know, you have any other complimentary commentary?

因此，我認為-- Rick，我不知道，您還有其他免費評論嗎？

Otherwise we'll just open the floor for questions.

否則，我們將開始提問。

No, let's go to the questions I think.

不，讓我們來回答我認為的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

At this time we will open the floor for questions.

在這個時候，我們將開始提問。

If you would like to ask a question, please press the star one keys on your touch tone phone now.

如果您想提出問題，請立即按您的按鍵式電話上的星號鍵。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they are received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行。

Please limit your questions to one at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions of the management members.

請將您的問題一次限制在一個，以便所有參與者都有機會向管理人員提問。

Our first question comes from Bavan Shaw of J.P. Morgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Bavan Shaw。

Yes.

是的。

I just -- a couple of questions.

我只是 - 幾個問題。

In terms of the tax expense, would it be fair for me to assume that it's noncash?

就稅收費用而言，假設它是非現金的對我來說是否公平？

In other words your cash tax expenses is roughly one to two percent and this is just a matter of timing, in other words in some quarters you have tax credit, but this quarter you have tax expense.

換句話說，您的現金稅收支出大約是 1% 到 2%，這只是時間問題，換句話說，在某些季度您有稅收抵免，但本季度您有稅收支出。

So I was wondering if you could add some more color on that?

所以我想知道你是否可以在上面添加更多顏色？

And second question was with respect to the change in the Cap-X plan, any thought you have on capacity outlook next year?

第二個問題是關於 Cap-X 計劃的變化，您對明年的產能前景有何看法？

That would be helpful.

那會很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We are having a big echo there.

我們在那裡有很大的迴聲。

Hello?

你好？

Hello?

你好？

hello?

你好？

Hello?

你好？

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That's fine.

沒關係。

I think -- I got your question, but there was a big echo there.

我想——我明白了你的問題，但那裡有很大的迴聲。

Okay.

好的。

First of all I want to say I am impressed each time you must be waiting on the line for half an hour to get on first in the question line.

首先，我想說的是，每次您必須排隊等待半小時才能排在問題線的首位時，我都印象深刻。

I am very impressed with that.

我對此印象深刻。

And so, let me say, your question is about tax expense, the other is about what?

所以，讓我說，你的問題是關於稅收費用，另一個是關於什麼？

Capacity.

容量。

About capacity.

關於容量。

Okay.

好的。

Let me talk a little bit about the tax expense.

讓我談談稅收費用。

Well, basically I think that the tax expense is going to be on an increasing mode primarily because that we have several fabs that continue to be graduating from the tax holidays.

好吧，基本上我認為稅收支出將呈增加模式，主要是因為我們有幾家晶圓廠繼續從免稅期畢業。

The tax benefit we got from -- during these new Fabs, they are two-fold.

我們從中獲得的稅收優惠——在這些新的 Fab 中，它們是雙重的。

One is so-called tax credit.

一種是所謂的稅收抵免。

That is one-time credit when you [INAUDIBLE] a new investment.

這是您 [聽不清] 一項新投資時的一次性信用。

That the government will allow a certain percentages of the investment to be able to offset the tax you are going to pay.

政府將允許一定比例的投資能夠抵消您將要支付的稅款。

And the second one is something like a five-year holiday.

第二個類似於五年假期。

Tax holiday.

免稅期。

And many of our fabs, for example Fab 3, Fab 4, actually also according to the different expansion stage, they are gradually graduating from big tax holidays.

而我們的很多晶圓廠，比如Fab 3、Fab 4，其實也是根據擴張階段的不同，逐漸從大免稅期畢業的。

The rules of the tax holiday are fairly stringent, and they are quite ridged rules and not that flexible.

免稅期的規定是相當嚴格的，而且是非常嚴苛的規定，沒有那麼靈活。

So whenever the demand I think pick up, I think if we are busy trying to coping with the customers' requests, and I think we try to get all the Fabs running and we can't really think too much of that.

因此，每當我認為需求回升時，我認為如果我們正忙於應對客戶的要求，並且我認為我們會嘗試讓所有 Fab 運行，我們真的不能想太多。

Therefore, those older Fabs -- not older, more maturing Fabs who are -- which will be able to afford some tax.

因此，那些較老的 Fab——不是更老、更成熟的 Fab——將能夠負擔一些稅收。

And when that happens, they have to pay a little bit more tax.

當這種情況發生時，他們必須支付更多的稅。

So I think looking forward, I think certainly I think you will see that our tax expense increasing.

所以我認為展望未來，我認為你肯定會看到我們的稅收支出增加。

Hello?

你好？

Yes.

是的。

I'm here.

我在這。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

I have a strange sound here so bear with me for one minute.

我這裡有一個奇怪的聲音，所以請耐心等待一分鐘。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Hello? Okay?

你好？好的？

Are you okay?

你還好嗎？

Hello?

你好？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, Rick, can you talk about the Fabs?

是的，瑞克，你能談談工廠嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Sure. Can you hear me?

當然。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, I can.

我可以。

Please.

請。

Sure, this is not a trick.

當然，這不是詭計。

[ LAUGHTER ].

[笑聲]。

To avoid answering the question.

避免回答問題。

We are, as you can imagine, we are actually right now looking at our capacity for next year, real time as Morris said earlier in the afternoon.

正如您可以想像的那樣，我們實際上正在考慮明年的產能，正如莫里斯下午早些時候所說的那樣。

Actually we had a meeting in the morning.

事實上，我們在早上開了個會。

So I don't really have a number for you, but what I can say is the -- we certainly will continue investing in 21 Micron in both 8-inch and 12-inch.

所以我真的沒有給你一個數字，但我可以說的是——我們肯定會繼續投資 8 英寸和 12 英寸的 21 微米。

But most of the investment will be in 12-inch next year because most of the 8-inch investment will be completed probably by end of this year or early next year.

但明年大部分投資將在12英寸，因為大部分8英寸投資可能會在今年年底或明年年初完成。

We do not really plan to invest in anything below or greater than [INAUDIBLE] .

我們並不真正計劃投資低於或高於 [聽不清] 的任何項目。

We -- the pace of the 12 inch ramp up is also slowing down somewhat, really pending on the vicious environment.

我們 - 12 英寸加速的步伐也有所放緩，真正等待惡性環境。

We need a little time to get some better visibility, we hope, into next year.

我們需要一點時間來獲得更好的知名度，我們希望，到明年。

So, again, these all constitute the basis for reduction of the Cap-X to below 2 billion this year.

因此，同樣，這些都構成了今年將 Cap-X 減少到 20 億以下的基礎。

We will probably have a much better idea in our next conference call.

在下一次電話會議中，我們可能會有更好的主意。

Okay.

好的。

But we need to come back to this tax expense.

但我們需要回到這個稅收支出。

Basically they are gradually increasing up.

基本上它們是逐漸增加的。

So for --

因此對於 -

Uh-huh.

嗯。

So forth year, I think on the -- on the tax expense, and I'm not sure what would be a very good number.

所以第四年，我認為 - 關於稅收費用，我不確定什麼是一個非常好的數字。

I think maybe you can use something like, I say maybe 10%.

我想也許你可以使用類似的東西，我說可能是 10%。

I think you should not be too far from it.

我認為你不應該離它太遠。

I see.

我懂了。

Would that 10% be close to the actual cash tax you would have to pay?

這 10% 是否接近您必須支付的實際現金稅？

Or that's -- that's my -- that's what I was trying to direct.

或者那是——那是我的——這就是我試圖指導的。

Yes, probably.

很可能是。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from David Wu of Wedbush Morgan securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Morgan 證券公司的 David Wu。

Good evening, gentlemen.

晚上好，先生們。

Can you help us on two things?

你能幫我們做兩件事嗎？

Number one is, what have you been seeing lately, i.e., in the month of May or June, in terms of customers scaling back their forecast for the September quarter?

第一，您最近看到了什麼，即在 5 月或 6 月，客戶縮減了對 9 月季度的預測？

And the second question I have is, at this point, given your lead times, do you have any first clue about the outlook for demand in the month of September?

我的第二個問題是，在這一點上，鑑於您的交貨時間，您是否對 9 月份的需求前景有任何初步線索？

Um -- okay.

嗯——好的。

The last couple months certainly the company in the PCs area is [INAUDIBLE]

過去幾個月，PC 領域的公司肯定是 [聽不清]

They have also a much less visibility going into the next quarter.

進入下一季度，他們的知名度也低得多。

People in general believe that the third quarter will be better than the second quarter by maybe 10%.

人們普遍認為，第三季度將比第二季度好 10% 左右。

Maybe a little better 10 to 15%.

可能會好一點，10% 到 15%。

But they all believe that the growth for the third quarter will be weaker compared to the historical track record.

但他們都認為，與歷史記錄相比，第三季度的增長將較弱。

For the communications, I think because of the general business environment, and all the noises, all the issues from the corporate scandals, people are now also getting less certain compared to a couple months ago.

對於通訊，我認為由於一般的商業環境，以及所有的噪音，所有來自公司醜聞的問題，與幾個月前相比，人們現在也變得不太確定了。

With our lead time, our outlook for September is, you know, we still have about two months of visibility and that's why we are giving our guidance for third quarter as I just said earlier on.

有了我們的交貨時間，我們對 9 月的展望是，你知道，我們還有大約兩個月的知名度，這就是為什麼我們要給出第三季度的指導，正如我之前所說的那樣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Mark Fitzgerald of Banc of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的馬克菲茨杰拉德。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I was wondering if you could make some comment about the outlook for 300 millimeter and pulling back on that.

我想知道您是否可以對 300 毫米的前景發表一些評論並撤回。

What that says about your view for the growth rate for the semi-conductor business in '03, given the lead times for 300 millimeter?

考慮到 300 毫米的交貨時間，您對 03 年半導體業務增長率的看法如何？

Um -- your question is about the 300 millimeter lead time, or it's about --?

嗯——你的問題是關於 300 毫米的交貨時間，還是關於——？

No, it's given -- I'm curious -- if you are pulling in 300 millimeter spending, obviously it has very long lead times.

不，這是給定的——我很好奇——如果你要花 300 毫米，顯然它的交貨時間很長。

That must say something about your view of what the semi-conductor industry's growth rate and what your growth rates for 2003 are.

這必須說明您對半導體行業增長率的看法以及您對 2003 年的增長率的看法。

Oh.

哦。

I want to be careful in my statement about 300 millimeter investment for next year.

我想在關於明年 300 毫米投資的聲明中保持謹慎。

What I said, we will invest mostly in 300 millimeters and of course .13 micron technology.

我說過，我們將主要投資於 300 毫米，當然還有 0.13 微米技術。

However the pace of our 300 millimeter ramp rate will be slower than what we planned say a few months earlier.

然而，我們的 300 毫米坡道速度將比我們幾個月前的計劃要慢。

Am I making that clear?

我說清楚了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

No, I understand.

不，我明白。

But, I mean if you are slowing it, that does say you are looking down the road and seeing you don't need as much capacity in '03 if you are slowing it today.

但是，我的意思是，如果你放慢速度，那確實意味著你正在往下看，如果你今天放慢速度，你在 03 年不需要那麼多容量。

So I was just wondering what that meant for your view of the growth rate for the industry and for TSMC's revenue opportunity in '03?

所以我只是想知道這對你對行業增長率和台積電 03 年收入機會的看法意味著什麼？

Well, Mark, you know, when you look at our capacity end of this year, we still have 10,000 wafers, which means that's 22,000 wafers in terms of 8-inch equipment.

嗯，馬克，你知道，當你看我們今年年底的產能時，我們還有 10,000 片晶圓，這意味著以 8 英寸設備計算，這是 22,000 片晶圓。

That's quite a bit of wafers.

這是相當多的晶圓。

I think what we are saying here is that we have sort of slowed down, a little bit, in terms of coming up with the capacity in 12-inch for this year.

我認為我們在這裡所說的是，在提出今年的 12 英寸容量方面，我們已經放慢了一點速度。

And this is primarily because, in terms of customers' intent to switch, to jump into 12-inch they are not as enthusiastic as we think they are going to be.

這主要是因為，就客戶轉換、跳入 12 英寸的意圖而言，他們並沒有我們想像的那麼熱情。

In a way it's also understandable because this is something new.

在某種程度上，這也是可以理解的，因為這是新事物。

And basically everybody is waiting for others to come in first.

基本上每個人都在等待其他人先進來。

There's a Chinese proverb saying that the dumb bird will fly first.

中國有句諺語，啞鳥先飛。

They are all waiting for the dumb bird, and then they can follow.

他們都在等待啞鳥，然後他們可以跟隨。

And also I think they have less confidence.

而且我認為他們沒有信心。

They really don't want to go through the hassle of trying to go through the qualification and try to wait for the year to get stabilized, which is all a lot of work.

他們真的不想經歷試圖通過資格並試圖等待一年穩定下來的麻煩，這都是很多工作。

So basically, I think they are not as fast in responding to this switching to 12-inch.

所以基本上，我認為他們對這種切換到 12 英寸的反應沒有那麼快。

But I don't think that is real reflection on the 2003.

但我不認為這是對 2003 年的真實反映。

Actually on the other hand, you can see that we have sensed this, actually, for awhile.

實際上，另一方面，您可以看到我們已經感覺到這一點，實際上，有一段時間了。

That's one reason, why actually we have added a little bit more 8-inch.

這就是為什麼我們實際上增加了一點 8 英寸的原因之一。

Because we worry that if people are not switching to 12-inch and if we don't have enough 8, they will go to others.

因為我們擔心如果人們不切換到 12 英寸，如果我們沒有足夠的 8 英寸，他們會轉向其他人。

Do you still subscribe then to the SIA's forecast of I think it's 20 or 25% type of growth rates for the semi-conductor industry in '03 then?

那麼您是否仍然同意 SIA 的預測，我認為 03 年半導體行業的增長率為 20% 或 25%？

Is that what you are planning your own business around?

這就是您正在計劃自己的業務嗎？

Yes, Rick, why don't you.

是的，瑞克，你為什麼不呢。

Yes.

是的。

I think Morris commented in the afternoon, that the -- we now believe the growth rate for semi-conductor industry will be lower than that number you just mentioned from SIA.

我認為莫里斯下午評論說，我們現在認為半導體行業的增長率將低於您剛剛從 SIA 提到的那個數字。

However, we continue to believe that the TSMC's growth rate will be higher than the semi-conductor growth rate.

然而，我們仍然認為台積電的增長率將高於半導體的增長率。

We will have shown you for this year.

我們將向您展示今年的情況。

Okay.

好的。

And just one more question to follow-on.

還有一個問題要跟進。

The comment that a lot of your customers are not willing to go through the expense and the heart ache of going to 300 millimeter.

您的許多客戶不願意經歷費用的評論和前往 300 毫米的心痛。

Is that a decision that on an outlook for their own business?

這是一個基於他們自己業務前景的決定嗎？

Because obviously the cost advantages have been -- would suggest that it's pretty strong economic argument for going to 300 millimeters.

因為顯然成本優勢已經 - 表明它是 300 毫米的非常強大的經濟論據。

So I don't quite understand given the pricing environment now, why they wouldn't want 300 millimeter technology?

所以我不太明白現在的定價環境，為什麼他們不想要 300 毫米技術？

The cost environment, basically we are talking about when the thing get mature.

成本環境，基本上我們說的是東西成熟的時候。

When it has fully ramp.

當它完全斜坡時。

And so that's two years from now.

所以那是從現在開始的兩年。

That's why, I think that, we are talking about the dumb bird fly first.

這就是為什麼，我認為，我們首先談論的是啞鳥飛。

Everybody wants to enjoy the benefit, but nobody wants to pay the expense.

每個人都想享受好處，但沒有人願意付出代價。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Shakar Prumanik of Prudential.

我們的下一個問題來自保誠的 Shakar Prumanik。

Hi.

你好。

Good evening.

晚上好。

Just two questions.

就兩個問題。

Do you still expect, at this point, that we should see a Q4 being somewhat better than Q3?

在這一點上，您是否仍然期望我們應該看到 Q4 比 Q3 好一些？

At least some kind of a seasonal trend?

至少某種季節性趨勢？

We certainly don't have any reason to challenging that statement.

我們當然沒有任何理由質疑這一說法。

Okay.

好的。

Do you -- I mean, based on, you know, client viewpoint, I mean, are you seeing any kind of wafer starts which are improving from these levels in the next three or four weeks?

你——我的意思是，基於你知道的，客戶的觀點，我的意思是，你是否看到在接下來的三到四周內有任何類型的晶圓開始在這些水平上有所改善？

Wafer starting improvement is--

晶圓開始改進是——

Which will be out into Q4, or you -- currently you are not expecting your wafer starts to improve in the next few weeks?

哪個將在第四季度發布，或者您 - 目前您不期望您的晶圓在接下來的幾週內開始改善？

What do you think, Rick?

瑞克，你怎麼看？

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

What do you think, Rick?

瑞克，你怎麼看？

Well, our lead time is roughly two months.

好吧，我們的交貨時間大約是兩個月。

So our wafer start right now is in the September out period.

所以我們現在的晶圓開始時間是在九月份。

We have some limited visibility into early fourth quarter, but I think it's too early to tell right now.

我們對第四季度初的能見度有限，但我認為現在說還為時過早。

But you are still hopeful that Q4 will be better than Q3?

但是您仍然希望 Q4 會比 Q3 更好嗎？

Always.

總是。

O.K.

好的。

The second question, you know, on ASP trend, what needs to happen to see the, you know, ASP starts to move up?

第二個問題，你知道，關於 ASP 趨勢，需要發生什麼才能看到，你知道，ASP 開始上升？

Is that of course more 1.3 loading.

那當然是更多的1.3加載。

Could we start to see that in Q4?

我們可以在第四季度開始看到這一點嗎？

We don't know yet.

我們還不知道。

We do have a number of customers that not only [INAUDIBLE] also we start to ship them commercial volume quantities on a .13.

我們確實有很多客戶，不僅 [聽不清] 我們還開始以 0.13 的價格向他們發貨。

But I don't see that they can be sort of a holding factor to sort of hold up the ASP.

但我不認為它們可以成為支撐 ASP 的支撐因素。

Certainly the total volume of .13 I think, is still low compared to overall.

當然，我認為 0.13 的總量與整體相比仍然很低。

And what we see here is primarily, I think, as you see, that the drop of .15 and .18.

正如你所看到的，我們在這裡看到的主要是 0.15 和 0.18 的下降。

And hopefully that we will see more advanced application users coming back asking for more wafers.

希望我們會看到更多高級應用用戶回來要求更多晶圓。

Great.

偉大的。

And one more question.

還有一個問題。

If you could update us a little bit on the copper and .13 yield issues, there's a lot of speculation on that front.

如果您可以就銅和 0.13 收益率問題向我們提供一些最新信息，那麼在這方面有很多猜測。

You are asking me .13 yield issue?.

您是在問我 .13 產量問題嗎？

No, I mean, whether the use of copper use of, you know at level which are normal at this point, or are they lower than normal?

不，我的意思是，無論是使用銅使用的，你知道在這一點上哪些是正常的，還是低於正常水平？

Some kind of commentary?

某種評論？

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

I think the -- actually our .13 micron technology proposed, as you know, the use of copper and with the two kinds of dimetric material, FST material and the Lokay (ph) material.

我認為——實際上我們的 0.13 微米技術提出了，如你所知，使用銅和兩種二元材料，FST 材料和 Lokay (ph) 材料。

Both of the technology has been qualified completely.

兩項技術均已完全合格。

FST is seeing a pretty high volume production.

FST 的產量相當大。

They yield, you know, most copper [INAUDIBLE] is performing well, up to our expectation.

它們的產量，你知道，大多數銅 [聽不清] 表現良好，符合我們的預期。

However, also we also agree that as the yield weakens, we can still continue to improve.

然而，我們也同意，隨著收益率的減弱，我們仍然可以繼續提高。

And we believe as the volume continue to go up, you know, our quarter-to-quarter volume will double during the last two quarters.

我們相信隨著銷量的持續增長，你知道，我們的季度銷量將在過去兩個季度翻一番。

We believe our learning curve will go down rather quickly.

我們相信我們的學習曲線會很快下降。

So we are quite confident about the .13 micron production.

所以我們對0.13微米的產量很有信心。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Dan Hayler of Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美林證券的丹·海勒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Can you guys hear me?

你們能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, just wanted to follow-up on a couple things.

是的，只是想跟進幾件事。

First, on the 0.13 first, and 300 millimeter.

首先，在 0.13 和 300 毫米上。

Is it fair to say if -- on 300 millimeter to bring up that capacity, obviously you would like to bring that up and to utilize that Fab.

公平地說，如果 - 在 300 毫米上提高該產能，顯然您希望提高該產能並利用該 Fab。

Is it fair to assume that you may do other geometries other than 0.13 to do that?

假設您可以使用 0.13 以外的其他幾何形狀來做到這一點，這是否公平？

You mean for 300 end year?

你的意思是年底300？

Right, 0.15, how high would you go?

對，0.15，你會走多高？

We're doing actually Dan, we are doing -- we are not just doing .12 on 300 millimeter.

我們實際上正在做丹，我們正在做——我們不只是在 300 毫米上做 0.12。

Right, you are doing .18, right.

對，你正在做 0.18，對。

You know, .15 and .18's, we are in production for 300 millimeter.

你知道，0.15 和 0.18，我們正在生產 300 毫米。

And --

和 -

Right.

正確的。

And --

和 -

Yep.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So what I'm wondering is, given that, could you -- are you migrating -- can you migrate other customers forward on that to bring up that capacity in order to bring costs down for them?

因此，我想知道的是，鑑於此，您是否可以-您是否正在遷移-您是否可以在此基礎上遷移其他客戶以提高容量以降低他們的成本？

Um -- yes, we have some high volume customers we have already moved to 300 millimeter .15.

嗯——是的，我們有一些大批量的客戶，我們已經轉移到 300 毫米 0.15。

And we also have customers actually being qualified for .12 micron production right now.

而且我們現在也有客戶實際上有資格進行 0.12 微米的生產。

It will be qualify the .12 microns, that's what I'm talking about, probably in the next month or at most two.

它將符合 0.12 微米的要求，這就是我所說的，可能在下個月或最多兩個月內。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess what Harvey's point was, I didn't quite get that.

然後我猜哈維的意思是什麼，我不太明白。

It was just an inconvenience for them -- for these guys to switch over, that they wanted to stick on 8 inch to do that?

這對他們來說只是一個不便——讓這些傢伙切換，他們想堅持 8 英寸來做到這一點？

It is inconvenient, as you can imagine.

正如您可以想像的那樣，這很不方便。

As for any new Fab, assume it's a 8 inch new Fab.

至於任何新的 Fab，假設它是一個 8 英寸的新 Fab。

Most, you know, customers would like to see other people to go in on that kind of [INAUDIBLE].

大多數，你知道，客戶希望看到其他人參與那種[聽不清]。

And, you know, they qualify and they have to qualify the products with their customers, and so forth and so on.

而且，你知道，他們有資格並且他們必須與他們的客戶一起對產品進行資格認證，等等。

So, you know, now is the 12 inch they have to do the same thing and with [INAUDIBLE].

所以，你知道，現在是 12 英寸，他們必須用 [聽不清] 做同樣的事情。

Higher risk, at the beginning, and they also have to work on together, we are actually working with them together to also to be sure that the back end will be available for them, also.

一開始的風險更高，而且他們還必須一起工作，我們實際上正在與他們一起工作，以確保他們也可以使用後端。

Okay.

好的。

It's more infrastructure work compared to 8 inch as you can, again, imagine.

與您可以再次想像的 8 英寸相比，它需要更多的基礎設施工作。

O.K., and then what's going to drive you to the, you know to the 10K level with this capacity?

好的，然後是什麼驅使你達到這個容量的 10K 水平？

What are your level of shipment expectation by the fourth quarter?

您對第四季度的出貨量預期是多少？

And what do you think those products would be?

你認為這些產品會是什麼？

I think the products will be, again, the high volume ones such as in the PC area, wireless area, some of the other communication products.

我認為這些產品將再次成為大批量產品，例如 PC 領域、無線領域以及其他一些通信產品。

That's what we move first.

這就是我們首先要採取的行動。

And usually what those customers would like to have because they also need flexibility for those technologies.

通常這些客戶希望擁有什麼，因為他們還需要這些技術的靈活性。

Okay.

好的。

Bottom line, I think will be a significant amount of that 10K.

最重要的是，我認為這將是 10K 中的很大一部分。

I cannot say for sure right now, but the -- already now we are utilizing a significant portion of the capacity.

我現在不能肯定地說，但是 - 現在我們已經在利用很大一部分容量。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And just one more and then I'll go.

還有一個，然後我就走了。

Harvey, on the comments regarding the stock options today and stock grants, obviously this is a contentious, high-profile issue.

哈維，關於今天的股票期權和股票授予的評論，顯然這是一個有爭議的、備受矚目的問題。

The concerns that were raised that you would lose some competitive advantage by expensing your grants or -- I didn't quite understand why there was a pretty firm opinion to not start to, you know, change over to options or to start to account for these.

有人擔心你會因為花費你的贈款而失去一些競爭優勢，或者 - 我不太明白為什麼有一個相當堅定的意見不開始，你知道，轉向期權或開始考慮這些。

I was joking to Leon this afternoon saying that if you ask that question again, I will tell people that if I'm an investor of your company, I'd like to see all the analyst [INAUDIBLE] cut by half, which will benefit the shareholders..

今天下午我和 Leon 開玩笑說如果你再問這個問題，我會告訴人們，如果我是你公司的投資者，我希望看到所有分析師 [聽不清] 減半，這將受益股東們..

Right.

正確的。

It's a little bit like that.

有點像那樣。

Basically, let me -- now let me stop joking and tell you about what Morris means.

基本上，讓我——現在讓我停止開玩笑，告訴你莫里斯的意思。

What it means is that because we have been under -- our compensation system have been under this stock grant for some years --

這意味著因為我們一直在 - 我們的薪酬系統已經在這個股票授予下幾年了 -

Right.

正確的。

And so actually and we are not the one who invented this, and actually a lot of the firms in the science park, they are all doing this.

所以實際上，我們並不是發明這個的人，實際上科學園裡的很多公司，他們都在做這個。

So he said -- what he said to the one who asked that question, is that if I follow your advice, I'm afraid 'm going to lose a lot of good people to our competitors.

所以他說——他對提出這個問題的人說的是，如果我聽從你的建議，恐怕會失去很多好人給我們的競爭對手。

That's what he say.

他就是這麼說的。

Okay.

好的。

Would this be -- do you foresee -- what do you see the Taiwan regulatory environment going on this issue?

這會是 - 你預見到 - 你認為台灣的監管環境在這個問題上會發生什麼？

I don't see the Taiwan regulatory environment is going to do anything about it.

我認為台灣的監管環境不會對此採取任何措施。

Actually not them.

其實不是他們。

If you really want to look deeply into this, actually this stock bonuses involve a lot of the very fundamental system.

如果你真的想深入研究這個，實際上這個股票紅利涉及很多非常基礎的系統。

And the biggest issue I think is on this [ INAUDIBLE ].

我認為最大的問題是[聽不清]。

Our stock market operate on $10 NT.

我們的股票市場以新台幣 10 美元運作。

[ INAUDIBLE ]

[聽不清]

And your stock market don't.

而你的股市沒有。

That's the biggest difference. So as long as we operate on a par value system, I think there is a lot of difficulties in terms of doing what you guys have been suggesting.

這是最大的不同。因此，只要我們在票面價值體系上運作，我認為在做你們建議的事情方面會有很多困難。

You are not getting stock dividend from the shares you invest in the U.S.

您不會從您在美國投資的股票中獲得股票股息。

But you are getting this from Taiwan.

但是你是從台灣得到的。

And actually that is basically the same thing.

實際上這基本上是一樣的。

So if you are looking at this year and what I read from the press watching from the T.V.

因此，如果您正在查看今年以及我從電視上看到的新聞報導。

Saying that look, TSMC is distributing 6.5 billion for bonuses to the employees.

說起來，台積電正在給員工發放65億獎金。

Meanwhile if you take another look.

同時，如果你再看看。

If that is true, then we have actually distributed 100 billion NT value to the shareholders this year in terms of the stock dividends.

如果真是這樣，那麼我們今年實際上已經以股票紅利的形式向股東分配了1000億新台幣的價值。

It's the same thing.

這是同一件事。

Because we operate on a par value system.

因為我們在票面價值系統上運作。

So this is actually -- this is not an easy issue.

所以這實際上是- 這不是一個容易的問題。

And I'm sure that the regulatory agencies want to talk to them about it, they try to stay away from it because they don't want to deal with it.

而且我敢肯定，監管機構想與他們談論這件事，他們試圖遠離它，因為他們不想處理它。

It's not -- we don't have a perfect solution for it.

不是——我們沒有完美的解決方案。

But longer on basis, I actually think that there will be a gradual shift into the option system, but it just takes time to do it.

但在更長的基礎上，我實際上認為會逐漸轉向期權系統，但這只是需要時間。

From your perspective, if your competitors in the U.S. in the semi-conductor business started to show these in terms of what it actually -- what the expense is and account for this expense, such that investors could understand it, would TSM, based on that, be willing to at least show on a pro forma basis -- you already do, of course on your ADR, but would you --

從您的角度來看，如果您在美國的半導體行業的競爭對手開始以實際情況來展示這些 - 費用是多少並說明這筆費用，以便投資者能夠理解，TSM 會基於至少願意在備考的基礎上展示——你已經這樣做了，當然在你的 ADR 上，但是你會——

Our ADR, Dan I'm sorry we do it under our U.S. GAAP.

我們的 ADR，Dan 很抱歉，我們是按照美國公認會計原則做的。

Right.

正確的。

We cannot change our GAAP unless they change it, okay?

我們不能改變我們的公認會計原則，除非他們改變，好嗎？

Gotcha.

明白了。

But on a quarterly basis, would you be willing to start to show these on your income statements?

但是每季度，您是否願意開始在您的損益表中顯示這些？

Why?

為什麼？

Why should we?

我們為什麼要？

I mean, assuming if your competitors started to do this in the U.S.?

我的意思是，假設你的競爭對手是否開始在美國這樣做？

As I have explained, our competitor is operating -- they are operating in a country called the United States.

正如我所解釋的，我們的競爭對手正在運營——他們在一個叫做美國的國家運營。

So it's natural for them to report their account system under U.S. GAAP.

因此，他們按照美國公認會計原則報告其賬戶系統是很自然的。

We are operating in a country called ROC.

我們在一個叫做 ROC 的國家開展業務。

So it's natural for us to operate our accounts under the ROC GAAP.

因此，我們按照 ROC GAAP 運營我們的賬戶是很自然的。

But in order for help the shareholders to understand it, each year we actually spend quite a bit of money, and actually getting our CPAs to spend quite a bit of time to do the recalculations.

但是為了讓股東們理解，我們每年其實都花了不少錢，實際上讓我們的註冊會計師也花了不少時間重新計算。

It's more complex actually than you can imagine.

它實際上比你想像的要復雜。

It actually takes them quite a bit of time to do that.

實際上，他們需要相當多的時間才能做到這一點。

To go back to U.S. GAAP, I understand you do that every year.

回到美國公認會計原則，我知道你每年都這樣做。

O.K.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Terrance Coke of Casanov.

我們的下一個問題來自卡薩諾夫的特倫斯可樂。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

Just on average starting prices, your guiding for 5% decline, that's quite a big decline.

就平均起始價格而言，您指導的 5% 下降，這是一個相當大的下降。

Can you just tell us, is it primarily due to mix or is there some pricing pressure as well?

您能否告訴我們，這主要是由於混合還是存在一些定價壓力？

It is primarily due to the change of the product mix as we have indicated, that the weakening of the computer segment, particularly I think those who use the more advance technology like graphics, chip sets and all that, I think.

正如我們所指出的，這主要是由於產品組合的變化，計算機領域的弱化，特別是我認為那些使用更先進技術的人，如圖形、芯片組等等，我認為。

So actually we expect to see utilization of .18 and .15 to be lower in the third quarter.

因此，實際上我們預計第三季度 0.18 和 0.15 的利用率會降低。

And as a result we see the weighted average selling price they will also be lower.

因此，我們看到加權平均售價也會更低。

Okay.

好的。

You also saying obviously that the communication chips, at what -- at what [INAUDIBLE] are they fabricated under?.

您還很明顯地說，通信芯片是在什麼 - 在什麼 [聽不清] 下製造的？

Well, we are talking about a very high diversity of product.

好吧，我們談論的是非常多樣化的產品。

I think, Rick, maybe you can compliment that a little bit later.

我想，Rick，也許你可以稍後讚美一下。

But basically, a couple years ago was when we were talking about communications, I think we are looking primarily at .35, but I think they are switching over to .25, actually a lot of them are being [INAUDIBLE] directly into .18.

但基本上，幾年前，當我們談論通信時，我認為我們主要關注 0.35，但我認為他們正在切換到 .25，實際上其中很多 [聽不清] 直接進入 .18 .

And, Rick, I think he has talked about it when you look at the .13 customer, actually very good percentage of them are actually in the communications segment.

而且，Rick，我認為當您查看 0.13 客戶時，他已經談到了這一點，實際上他們中的很大一部分實際上是在通信領域。

So actually, it's very difficult to generalize it.

所以實際上，很難一概而論。

Okay.

好的。

And just finally, on every selling price.

最後，在每一個售價上。

I mean, looking at your capacity indications for quarter 4, it looks like you [INAUDIBLE] a lot of lagging edge capacity, for example at Vanguard..

我的意思是，看看你們第 4 季度的產能指標，看起來你們 [聽不清] 很多落後的產能，例如在 Vanguard..

So could we interpret that as you are going to see a lot of older technology growing -- driving your growth in quarter four and therefore average selling price to continue to weaken in quarter four?

那麼我們能否解釋一下，因為您將看到許多舊技術在增長——推動您在第四季度的增長，因此平均售價將在第四季度繼續走弱？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

No.

不。

That's not a good very good interpretation.

這不是一個很好的解釋。

Actually Vanguard is independent company.

其實先鋒是獨立的公司。

We cannot really dictate all their strategies, but basically what Vanguard did is they had convert some of their existing memory equipment production lines into more suitable [ INAUDIBLE ], which actually have a different configuration.

我們不能真正決定他們所有的策略，但基本上 Vanguard 所做的是將他們現有的一些內存設備生產線轉換為更合適的 [聽不清]，實際上有不同的配置。

And they are doing this, of course they have seeing that this year, that particularly, I think is very obvious in second quarter the more mature technology demands have picked up.

他們正在這樣做，當然他們已經看到今年，特別是，我認為在第二季度非常明顯，更成熟的技術需求已經回升。

Also I think during the past six to nine months, when we are adding more capacity to our .18, .15 we actually have converted quite a bit of the .35.

此外，我認為在過去的六到九個月中，當我們為 0.18、0.15 增加更多容量時，我們實際上已經轉換了相當多的 0.35。

So Vanguard, I think has sort of s strategic alliance of ours, they think there's an opportunity on the more mature products.

所以先鋒，我認為我們有某種戰略聯盟，他們認為在更成熟的產品上有機會。

So they made an independent decision.

所以他們做出了獨立的決定。

But I think once they have converted to say foundry friendly, and they are obviously, they want to make this available to us and they asked us to take these capacity into consideration.

但我認為，一旦他們轉變為對代工友好，而且他們顯然是，他們希望向我們提供這一點，並要求我們考慮這些能力。

We do this, and actually, we will put them [INAUDIBLE], primarily because we want to be consistent, so that you know what's going on.

我們這樣做，實際上，我們會將它們 [聽不清]，主要是因為我們希望保持一致，以便您知道發生了什麼。

But this is not an indication we think that we do see a serious demand, I think on the more mature technology.

但這並不表明我們認為我們確實看到了嚴重的需求，我認為是在更成熟的技術上。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Teddy Tye of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Teddy Tye。

Hi.

你好。

Sorry [INAUDIBLE].

對不起[聽不清]。

Just two quick questions just want to clarify.

只是想澄清兩個簡單的問題。

First one, when Morris comments on the topic of ROE in the afternoon session.

第一個，當莫里斯在下午的會議上評論ROE的話題時。

When he mentioned 20%, is that the Company target average 20% return on equity?

當他提到 20% 時，公司的目標是平均 20% 的股本回報率嗎？

Or it's become like a pick target?

或者它變得像一個選擇目標？

This is the first one.

這是第一個。

I think, actually. lot of confusion out there and I'm asking is this the pick target or this is the average target?

我想，其實。那裡有很多混亂，我問這是選擇目標還是平均目標？

Second one actually also related to some of the information being disclosed by the company.

第二個實際上也與公司披露的一些信息有關。

We look our your sales [INAUDIBLE], actually .25 and above the sell actually percentage to sell increased from 47 -- I think 47 to 48% in the second quarter.

我們查看您的銷售額 [聽不清]，實際上 0.25 及以上的實際銷售百分比從 47 增加到第二季度 - 我認為是 47% 到 48%。

Your ASP actually increased so what's the reason behind it?

您的 ASP 實際上增加了，那麼背後的原因是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let me see.

讓我看看。

When you talk about ROE thing, [INAUDIBLE] you've been following us for many years and you should know better than I do what we are talking about.

當你談論 ROE 的事情時，[聽不清] 你已經關注我們很多年了，你應該比我更了解我們正在談論的事情。

We are talking about -- i think we actually -- we are talking about this has been [INAUDIBLE].

我們正在談論- 我認為我們實際上- 我們正在談論這已經[聽不清]。

And sort of our average basis, and I think for this year it's kind of hard if we try to make that a target.

和我們的平均基礎，我認為今年如果我們試圖把它作為一個目標有點困難。

Yeah.

是的。

Harvey, I would understand.

哈維，我會理解的。

But I think I have to [INAUDIBLE] know.

但我想我必須 [聽不清] 知道。

Just want to make sure.

只是想確定一下。

Yes.

是的。

There's some concern from clients.

客戶有些擔心。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

And the second question is regarding the -- yeah, why is this improved under the condition that .25 and above sales increase?

第二個問題是關於 - 是的，為什麼在 0.25 及以上銷售額增加的情況下會有所改善？

Rick, do you have a good answer for that?

瑞克，你有一個好的答案嗎？

Actually,. [ INAUDIBLE ] You are reading a bit too much into the T.V.

實際上，。 [聽不清]您對電視的閱讀量有點過大。

I mean there's a very small increase in the percentage, and there are so many wafers, I think, you know we didn't reach technology node and we have also a spectrum of prices.

我的意思是百分比的增長非常小，而且晶圓太多了，我想，你知道我們沒有達到技術節點，我們也有一系列的價格。

So, I mean I think it's been very difficult to just -- to say it's a 47 to 48% for the .25 micron and above and very modest increase into ASP, we try to derive the correlation.

所以，我的意思是，我認為很難僅僅 - 說 0.25 微米及以上尺寸的 47% 到 48% 以及 ASP 的非常溫和的增長，我們試圖得出相關性。

I think that's not possible.

我認為這是不可能的。

But basically what you can say is probably the ASP -- the price environment during this period of time has been fairly stable.

但基本上你能說的大概就是平均售價了——這段時間的價格環境還是比較穩定的。

I think that's probably something we can convert to.

我認為這可能是我們可以轉換的東西。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Michael McConnell of Pacific Press Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pacific Press Securities 的 Michael McConnell。

Good evening guys.

晚上好，伙計們。

Was just curious looking at your Cap-X spent thus far in 2002.

只是好奇地看著你在 2002 年迄今為止花費的 Cap-X。

There's still a lot of room, obviously to come down from the, you know, the 2 billion you are expecting.

仍然有很大的空間，顯然可以從你所期望的 20 億降下來。

So I was kind of wondering when you said less than 2 billion if you can kind of give us a range on your expectations at this point.

所以我有點想知道當你說不到 20 億美元時，你是否可以在這一點上給我們一個你的期望範圍。

A little bit more granularity in terms of where you think actually Cap-X will be for 2002?

你認為 Cap-X 在 2002 年的實際位置會更詳細一點嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well, if you remember that last time the indication was 2.5, now is 2 and, of course we continue to review all these numbers, but I'm afraid that the Cap-X number is such a dynamic number that I really can't give you fully information until we have made more decisions.

好吧，如果你記得上次指示是 2.5，現在是 2，當然我們會繼續審查所有這些數字，但恐怕 Cap-X 數字是如此動態的數字，我真的不能在我們做出更多決定之前，向您提供全部信息。

Okay.

好的。

And just one other question I had.

我還有一個問題。

In terms of when you say graphics chip sets, do you put that in the PC bucket, or does that go into the consumer bucket?

至於你說圖形芯片組，你是放在PC桶裡，還是放到消費者桶裡？

It's primarily in the PC.

它主要在 PC 中。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from David Van Hoitmah of Julius Bear.

我們的下一個問題來自 Julius Bear 的 David Van Hoitmah。

Yeah, Hi.

是的，你好。

Just actually very simple question.

只是實際上非常簡單的問題。

In your second half Cap-X, do you plan to push out any tool orders that you have in the books of the various equipment companies?

在您的 Cap-X 下半年，您是否計劃推出您在各個設備公司的賬簿中的任何工具訂單？

Rick, I'm not sure we should say about that.

瑞克，我不確定我們應該這麼說。

Well, usually, I think a reduction on a general basis the reduction is a combination of everything when you try to reduce the Cap-X.

好吧，通常情況下，我認為在一般情況下減少是當您嘗試減少 Cap-X 時所有內容的組合。

And certainly I think there's no reason we want to include the pushing out.

當然，我認為我們沒有理由要包括推出。

But we, on the other hand talk about it too much it might make our vendors unhappy.

但另一方面，我們過多地談論它可能會使我們的供應商不高興。

I think my line went dead there for a bit.

我想我的線路在那裡死了一會兒。

Would it be possible to repeat the last sentence?

可以重複最後一句話嗎？

Sorry?

對不起？

You actually didn't miss anything because what I say is that if I talk too much about it my vendors will be on my back.

你實際上沒有錯過任何東西，因為我想說的是，如果我談論它太多，我的供應商就會支持我。

Okay.

好的。

[ LAUGHTER ].

[笑聲]。

I understand.

我明白。

Actually that's the -- that makes it clear.

實際上，這就是——這很清楚。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Chip Morris of Integral Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Integral Capital 的 Chip Morris。

Hi.

你好。

I was curious how much of the commentary about the decline in computer and the commentary of July is a function of a single graphics customer?

我很好奇關於計算機衰退的評論和七月的評論有多少是單個圖形客戶的功能？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Um -- we don't talk about single customers.

嗯——我們不談論單個客戶。

I think that's all we can say.

我想這就是我們所能說的。

I guess what I'm trying to get at is what we are seeing for July and your quarter, are your commentary on ASPs and wafer starts or shipments systemic to the computer industry, or quite frankly, just a function of a problem at a single customer or two?

我想我想了解的是我們在 7 月和您的季度看到的情況，您對計算機行業系統性的 ASP 和晶圓啟動或出貨量的評論，或者坦率地說，只是單個問題的函數客戶或兩個？

Well, I can only repeat my same answer.

好吧，我只能重複我同樣的答案。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Chalice Jately of Numera Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Numera Securities 的 Chalice Jately。

Yeah, Hi.

是的，你好。

If you could just help me reconcile the numbers between your presentation slides and official press release.

如果你能幫我核對你的演示幻燈片和官方新聞稿之間的數字。

I was looking at the sales breakdown by applications.

我正在查看應用程序的銷售細分。

And in your press release it says that memory accounted for 12%, whereas your slide presentation says 3% and the corresponding numbers for computer communications and consumers and the presentation slide is much higher.

在您的新聞稿中，它說內存佔 12%，而您的幻燈片演示文稿說是 3%，計算機通信和消費者的相應數字和演示幻燈片要高得多。

Should I interpret that from your release -- press statement you have taken out the memory component which goes in the PC and communications and computers [INAUDIBLE] and basically classified it again?

我是否應該從你的新聞稿中解釋這一點——新聞聲明你已經取出了 PC 和通信和計算機中的內存組件 [聽不清] 並基本上再次對其進行了分類？

The 12% fall under second quarter last year.

低於去年第二季度的 12%。

So that's one year ago.

所以那是一年前的事了。

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

Sorry.

對不起。

That's a mistake.

這是一個錯誤。

Secondly, I wanted to also just figure out this discussion about expensing the options.

其次，我還想弄清楚這個關於花費選項的討論。

I fully agree with Harvey that probably the regulatory authorities would do nothing about it, simply because if all the companies start expensing it, the taxable fine for the authorities would go down significantly.

我完全同意哈維的觀點，監管機構可能不會對此採取任何行動，僅僅是因為如果所有公司都開始收費，當局的應稅罰款將大幅下降。

But given the environment where your taxation is increasing, won't it make sense to expense -- start expensing and increase the cash flows accrued to the shareholders?

但是考慮到你的稅收正在增加的環境，費用是否有意義 - 開始費用並增加股東應計的現金流量？

I think you have to push [INAUDIBLE] a little bit harder.

我認為您必須更加努力地推動 [聽不清]。

I certainly don't see that benefit right now.

我現在當然看不到這種好處。

Right now, actually the expenses the so-called -- you are talking about, they are -- they don't have any cash flow, right.

現在，實際上所謂的費用——你說的是——他們沒有任何現金流，對吧。

But I basically, I don't think it's going to happen.

但我基本上，我認為這不會發生。

Okay.

好的。

And one last question about the revenue guidance you are giving for July because you would have seen the wafer starts coming down in the month of May.

最後一個問題是關於您提供的 7 月份收入指導，因為您會看到晶圓在 5 月份開始下降。

So what are the reasons that you basically held back your [INAUDIBLE] for 2, 2 1/2 months?

那麼，您基本上將 [聽不清] 拖了 2、2 1/2 個月的原因是什麼？

And because you are stressing on July, does it mean that sequentially for the month of August and September we should see -- expect sequential improvements?

並且因為您強調 7 月，這是否意味著我們應該看到 8 月和 9 月的連續改善 - 預期連續改善？

Well, I think maybe -- I think you have sort of a misunderstood and our friendly sort of warning on July.

好吧，我想也許——我認為你對 7 月的警告有點誤解，而且是我們友好的警告。

Basically we have already offered our third quarter guidance.

基本上我們已經提供了第三季度的指導。

Unfortunately, we no longer give you guidance on total quarter revenue basis because this is not allowed by our regulatory authority.

不幸的是，我們不再為您提供基於季度總收入的指導，因為我們的監管機構不允許這樣做。

So since we cannot give you that number, and then we sort of concerned that when you see the July number you will try to generalize that into all the three quarters, that's all we are saying here.

因此，由於我們無法給您這個數字，然後我們有點擔心，當您看到 7 月的數字時，您會嘗試將其概括為所有三個季度，這就是我們在這裡要說的。

So we are saying that yes, there will be a decrease, and when you see the July number, that, relax a little bit, try to push your pencil a little bit harder and try to figure out what the total quarter will look like.

所以我們說是的，會減少，當你看到 7 月的數字時，放鬆一點，試著用力推動你的鉛筆，試著弄清楚總季度的情況。

Because, don't try to generalize one quarter and then particularly don't try to think that that indicates a trend that is a sort of going downhill sign.

因為，不要試圖概括一個季度，尤其不要試圖認為這表明趨勢是一種走下坡路的跡象。

That's not a case.

這不是個案。

That's all we try to say here.

這就是我們試圖在這裡說的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Prenab Sarma of Diowa Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Diowa Securities 的 Prenab Sarma。

Hi.

你好。

Good evening, gentlemen.

晚上好，先生們。

Would it be possible for you to let us know in the second quarter of '02 how much of your -- how much losses you have incurred due to the foreign exchange, basically like you say the dollar has probably appreciated 1.5% up at first quarter '02 on average basis.

您能否在 02 年第二季度告訴我們您因外匯而遭受了多少損失，基本上就像您說的美元在第一季度可能升值了 1.5% '02 平均基礎。

We have give you a number for the third quarter because that number is significant.

我們給你一個第三季度的數字，因為這個數字很重要。

We tend to think that for the third quarter that any dollar versus U.S. foreign exchange rate will stay at the current level throughout the quarter.

我們傾向於認為，在第三季度，任何美元兌美元匯率將在整個季度保持在當前水平。

And so the extent of change is significant, roughly 5%.

所以變化的程度是顯著的，大約 5%。

And then we have give you sort of 2.2%, translated into a 2.2% impact.

然後我們給了你 2.2%，轉化為 2.2% 的影響。

And actually you can do the same thing.

實際上你也可以做同樣的事情。

You know -- .

你知道 - 。

I have that schedule, [INAUDIBLE] but it appears to me around $300 million losses in the dollar, am I right in my assumption?

我有那個時間表，[聽不清]，但在我看來，美元損失約為 3 億美元，我的假設是否正確？

Can you repeat again?

你能再重複一遍嗎？

Because you sort of interrupted me and I'm not sure of that.

因為你打斷了我，我不確定。

Can you just --

你能不能——

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Same we like 2.2% I have [INAUDIBLE] for second quarter '02, it appears around .7% margin losses on second quarter '02 if I assume like a 1.5% appreciation in the anti-dollar.

同樣，我們喜歡 2.2%，我有 02 年第二季度的 [聽不清]，如果我假設反美元升值 1.5%，那麼 02 年第二季度的利潤率損失約為 0.7%。

And in that case it translates out around $300 million anti-dollar for-x losses in second quarter.

在這種情況下，它在第二季度轉化為大約 3 億美元的反美元外匯損失。

I think your in the ball park.

我想你在球場上。

Okay.

好的。

And would it be possible to let us know a little bit about, in July book-to-bill ratio is lower than the June?

是否有可能讓我們知道一點，7 月份的訂單出貨比低於 6 月份？

Or are are you seeing any stability in the book-to-bill ratio or improvement in the book-to-bill ratio now?

或者您現在是否看到訂單出貨比穩定或訂單出貨比有所改善？

We are seeing some improvement.

我們看到了一些改進。

Maybe Rick, Rick, maybe you can talk more about it.

也許瑞克，瑞克，也許你可以多談談。

But I think we are seeing a little bit more, some improvement and gradually going back to one or close to one.

但我認為我們看到了更多，一些改進，並逐漸回到一個或接近一個。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

You are right, Harvey.

你是對的，哈維。

We are moving gradually I think to one and a bit above.

我認為我們正在逐漸向更高一點的方向發展。

Okay.

好的。

And my last question will be on the Cap-X side, about another $1.5 billion you are supposed to spend in second half '02 based on current guidance.

我的最後一個問題是關於 Cap-X 方面的，根據目前的指導，你應該在 02 年下半年再花費 15 億美元。

And how much of that will be for 12-inch Fab?

12 英寸 Fab 的成本是多少？

We -- let me take a look at it.

我們——讓我來看看。

Okay.

好的。

Right now we are looking roughly one-third on the 12 inch.

現在我們在 12 英寸上看到大約三分之一。

Okay.

好的。

On 500 million for 12-inch for second half.

下半年12寸5億。

Thank you very much, gentlemen.

非常感謝，先生們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Leo Lee of Credit Suisse First Boston.

我們的下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse First Boston 的 Leo Lee。

Well, we are hearing a lot from our old friends in the afternoon.

嗯，我們下午聽到了很多老朋友的來信。

I think in the interest of time we will take -- including this one we'll take two more questions.

我認為，為了節省時間，我們將再回答兩個問題，包括這個問題。

Hi, good evening Harvey.

嗨，晚上好，哈維。

I think just two questions.

我想只有兩個問題。

One question is that for second quarter revenue breakdown, how much for your top five customers account for your second quarter revenue percentage?

一個問題是，對於第二季度的收入細分，您的前五名客戶佔您第二季度收入的百分比是多少？

And is any customer in the third quarter account for more than 10% of your budget revenue in the third quarter?

第三季度是否有任何客戶佔您第三季度預算收入的 10% 以上？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Leo, it's a very good try.

獅子座，這是一個很好的嘗試。

We basically talk about our top ten.

我們基本上談論我們的前十名。

We really don't want to go too much details into that.

我們真的不想在其中涉及太多細節。

But that the -- in terms of our top 10 customers, they are in a declining trend.

但是，就我們的前 10 名客戶而言，他們處於下降趨勢。

And our top 10 include the first quarter, they are actually close to two-thirds, and the second quarter they fall to the mid-50 level.

而我們的前10名包括第一季度，他們實際上接近三分之二，而第二季度他們下降到50中期的水平。

And I think will continue to fall in the third quarter.

而且我認為將在第三季度繼續下跌。

I think that's the best we can do.

我認為這是我們能做的最好的。

And thank you.

謝謝你。

My second question is that Motorola in the second quarter earning conference they mention that they are working with TSMC for the product called magnetic RAM.

我的第二個問題是，摩托羅拉在第二季度的盈利會議上提到他們正在與台積電合作開發名為磁性 RAM 的產品。

Can you comment a little bit on that kind of product?

你能評論一下那種產品嗎？

When do you think that it will be ready for mass production?

你認為它什麼時候可以量產？

Or hits the market.

或者上市。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

We have to apologize.

我們必須道歉。

We have not learned from [INAUDIBLE].

我們還沒有從 [聽不清] 那裡學到東西。

Now we have, as you know, we do have manufacturing agreement with Motorola and the joint technology development relationship.

如您所知，現在我們確實與摩托羅拉簽訂了製造協議以及聯合技術開發關係。

So we are working on a multi-front in both technologies and the production.

因此，我們正在技術和生產方面開展多方面的工作。

So as to the magnetic, when specifically, I don't think we can comment specifically.

至於磁性，具體什麼時候，我想我們不能具體評論。

But there is something.

但有一點。

[ INAUDIBLE ] in commercial use yet

[ 聽不清 ] 尚未用於商業用途

Last question.

最後一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Ito Chang of Lehman Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的 Ito Chang。

Hello.

你好。

My question is with regard to the strength you are seeing in the communication side.

我的問題是關於你在溝通方面看到的力量。

I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color on that in terms of whether this is due to more outsourcing, new product launches, or whether it's perhaps inventory replenishment?

我想知道您是否可以就這是否是由於更多的外包、新產品推出或是否可能是庫存補充而給我們提供更多的顏色？

I also have follow-up questions.

我也有後續問題。

What about communication with respect to outsourcing?

關於外包的溝通如何？

Pardon me?

對不起？

Trying to understand your question.

試圖理解你的問題。

I think, Rick, the question is the demand pick up of the communications segment.

我認為，里克，問題是通信部門的需求回升。

Are they coming from replenishment of inventory or coming from more outsourcing?

它們是來自補充庫存還是來自更多的外包？

Oh.

哦。

I believe more out -- well, it's a combination of outsourcing and also new product.

我相信更多——嗯，它是外包和新產品的結合。

Okay.

好的。

And new product.

和新產品。

I mean we do see some replenishment, but it's getting to be quite low now.

我的意思是我們確實看到了一些補充，但現在它變得相當低了。

Mostly new product.

主要是新產品。

Okay.

好的。

As a follow-up, your communications segment grew considerably in the second quarter and you are also guiding for [INAUDIBLE] growth in the third quarter as well.

作為後續行動，您的通信部門在第二季度大幅增長，並且您也在指導第三季度的 [聽不清] 增長。

Do you think this strength can be continued going into the fourth quarter?

您認為這種實力可以持續到第四季度嗎？

You know, we -- we believe our communication ratio communication we probably say -- probably at the third quarter level or may improve somewhat, but it's too early to say.

你知道，我們 - 我們相信我們可能會說的溝通比率 - 可能在第三季度水平或可能會有所改善，但現在說還為時過早。

Probably stay at the third quarter level, we can say that.

大概停留在第三季度的水平，我們可以這麼說。

Okay.

好的。

My last question, quick question on flat panel display segment.

我的最後一個問題，關於平板顯示器領域的快速問題。

Did you say that this was part of the sub segments that were seeing growth or seeing declining growth?

您是說這是增長或增長下降的子細分市場的一部分嗎？

That's what I have said that's what we saw.

這就是我所說的，這就是我們所看到的。

We see some growth, I think this quarter.

我認為本季度我們看到了一些增長。

But for the next quarter, actually they are not as strong.

但對於下一季度，他們實際上並不那麼強大。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This quarter means second quarter, okay?

這個季度意味著第二季度，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from Ashid Kumar of Credit Suisse First Boston.

我們的下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse First Boston 的 Ashid Kumar。

Operator, after this one, this is definitely the last one, okay?

接線員，繼這一位之後，這肯定是最後一位了，好嗎？

Sorry, Harvey.

對不起，哈維。

Good evening to you.

祝你晚安。

Yeah, I know we can't stop, I know.

是的，我知道我們不能停下來，我知道。

[ LAUGHTER ].

[笑聲]。

You know, I am just trying in sort of a different way to ask you two things and people have tried it earlier.

你知道，我只是想以一種不同的方式問你兩件事，人們之前已經嘗試過了。

First is that if hypothetically, you know, our company was to be without our top customer that is revenue excluding the top customer, would the revenue have shown a sequential improvement in quarter three or quarter two?

首先是，如果假設，你知道，我們公司沒有我們的最大客戶，即不包括最大客戶的收入，收入會在第三季度或第二季度出現連續改善嗎？

I'm sorry, you have to repeat your question again.

對不起，你必須再次重複你的問題。

No problem.

沒問題。

I was asking, Harvey, that, you know, our company without the top customer, that is a revenue without top customer, quarter two over quarter three or quarter three or quarter two actually would that be sequentially up?

我在問，哈維，你知道，我們公司沒有頂級客戶，那是沒有頂級客戶的收入，第二季度超過第三季度或第三季度或第二季度實際上會依次上升嗎？

You you lost me.

你失去了我。

Okay.

好的。

You're going to have to try again.

你將不得不再試一次。

I understand the question, but we have not -- Harvey, he's asking the revenue without the top customers how is the revenue doing from second quarter to third quarter?

我理解這個問題，但我們沒有——哈維，他問的是沒有頂級客戶的收入，從第二季度到第三季度的收入如何？

Am I right to say that?

我這樣說對嗎？

Yeah, and actually I'm not even asking for, you know, a magnitude or anything.

是的，實際上我什至沒有要求，你知道，一個幅度或任何東西。

I'm just trying to get a sense of direction that TSMC without the top customer, would the revenue in third quarter be higher than the second quarter?

我只是想知道台積電沒有最大客戶的方向感，第三季度的收入會高於第二季度嗎？

I really cannot respond to that.

我真的無法回應。

But I think I have dropped enough hints on that.

但我認為我已經給出了足夠多的暗示。

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And I think you did answer, but I couldn't hear it probably, so I -- I'll ask again. .

我想你確實回答了，但我可能聽不到，所以我——我會再問一次。 .

After, you know, you did sort of in a friendly fashion, you know, warn us about the July month [INAUDIBLE], what the wafer the number might be, would August and September be, you know, sort of higher than the month of July to get to your full quarter guidance?

之後，你知道，你以一種友好的方式，你知道，警告我們關於 7 月 [聽不清]，晶圓的數量可能是多少，8 月和 9 月會比這個月高嗎？七月以獲得您的完整季度指導？

Um -- I can't really talk about it.

嗯——我真的不能談論它。

I will get into trouble with the regulators.

我會惹上監管者的麻煩。

We actually -- I actually -- let me try to explain this.

我們實際上 - 我實際上 - 讓我試著解釋一下。

I think after -- I'm thinking our last quarter result they have already noticed that we stopped giving you guidance on the revenue and on the profitability side.

我想之後 - 我在想我們上個季度的結果，他們已經註意到我們停止為您提供有關收入和盈利能力方面的指導。

In the past we give you a range.

過去我們給你一個範圍。

That is because, I think early January that we got a notice from our local SFC which is equivalent to the U.S. SEC.

那是因為，我認為一月初我們收到了當地證監會的通知，這相當於美國證券交易委員會。

Basically saying that if companies are giving -- offering guidance, specific guidance on revenue or profits, then this will be perceived by the regulators that the company has the intent to voluntarily made their financial forecast for whole year available.

基本上是說，如果公司提供指導，提供有關收入或利潤的具體指導，那麼監管機構就會認為公司有意自願提供全年的財務預測。

So after they have done that, within 48 hours they have to make the whole year forecast available to everyone.

因此，在他們這樣做之後，他們必須在 48 小時內向所有人提供全年預測。

Since we are not prepared to make forecasts for the whole year, and so I think we have to, somehow, modify our guidance.

由於我們不准備對全年進行預測，因此我認為我們必須以某種方式修改我們的指導。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Okay. I think that will conclude our today's conference call.

好的。我認為這將結束我們今天的電話會議。

And certainly want to thank everyone for patiently staying with us.

當然要感謝大家耐心地和我們在一起。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Before we conclude TSMC's second quarter 2002 earnings webcast conference call today, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will be accessible through TSMC's website at WWW.TSMC.com.

在我們今天結束台積電 2002 年第二季度收益網絡廣播電話會議之前，請注意，電話會議的重播可以通過台積電的網站 WWW.TSMC.com 訪問。

Finally, for all participants who have not previously submitted their e-mail addresses to the company or would like to update their e-mail addresses and contact details please contact TSMC's IR team at invest @tsmc.com.gw, as soon as possible.

最後，對於之前未向公司提交電子郵件地址或希望更新其電子郵件地址和聯繫方式的所有參與者，請盡快聯繫台積電的 IR 團隊投資@tsmc.com.gw。

Thank you all, you may disconnect at this time.

謝謝大家，此時您可以斷開連接。