Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo First Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. We welcome the Trinseo's management team: Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Andy Myers, Director of Investor Relations.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加盛禧奧 2022 年第一季財務業績電話會議。我們歡迎盛禧奧的管理團隊：Frank Bozich，總裁兼執行長； David Stasse，執行副總裁兼財務長；和投資者關係總監安迪‧邁爾斯 (Andy Myers)。

Today's conference call will include brief remarks made by the management team, followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release along with its presentation slides at close of market Wednesday, May 4. These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on the Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions)

今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。該公司在 5 月 4 日星期三收盤時發布了新聞稿及其簡報幻燈片。 （操作員說明）

I will now hand the call over to Andy Myers.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪·邁爾斯。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. (Operator Instructions) After our brief remarks, instructions will follow to participate in the question-and-answer session. Our disclosure rules and cautionary note on forward-looking statements are noted on Slide 2.

謝謝莎拉，大家早安。 （操作員說明）在我們簡短發言後，將遵循參與問答環節的說明。我們的揭露規則和有關前瞻性陳述的警示說明請參閱投影片 2。

During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations. We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed described or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, risk factors set forth in item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements.

在本次演示中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導和描述我們的未來期望。我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中所描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP measurements. A reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release. A replay of the conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's Investor Relations website shortly following the conference call. The replay will be available until May 5, 2023.

今天的演示包括某些非 GAAP 衡量標準。我們的收益報告中提供了這些衡量標準與相應公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳。電話會議的重播和文字記錄將在電話會議結束後不久存檔在公司的投資者關係網站上。重播將持續到 2023 年 5 月 5 日。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

現在我想把電話轉給 Frank Bozich。

Thanks, Andy, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. We had a very good start to the year with continued solid earnings in the first quarter. Q1 results reflect the continued progress we have made in reshaping our portfolio as it was one of the highest quarterly adjusted earnings results of the company -- in the company's history. I'm particularly pleased with this as we're operating in a challenging macro environment, which now includes uncertainty and volatility from the conflict in Eastern Europe. Our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine, and I want to thank our employees who have shown great generosity through their donations to benefit those who've had their safety and wellbeing compromised.

謝謝安迪，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們今年開局良好，第一季獲利持續穩健。第一季的業績反映了我們在重塑投資組合方面所取得的持續進展，因為這是公司歷史上最高的季度調整後獲利業績之一。我對此感到特別滿意，因為我們正在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中運營，其中包括東歐衝突帶來的不確定性和波動性。我們的心與烏克蘭人民同在，我要感謝我們的員工，他們透過捐款表現出了極大的慷慨，使那些安全和福祉受到損害的人們受益。

The conflict has had no direct impact on our operations as all of our plants in the region are in Western Europe, with no regular direct suppliers in Ukraine, Russia or Belarus. However, we have observed indirect impacts in the region, including automotive production issues as well as higher and more volatile prices of natural gas and other inputs.

衝突並未對我們的營運產生直接影響，因為我們在該地區的所有工廠都位於西歐，在烏克蘭、俄羅斯或白俄羅斯沒有固定的直接供應商。然而，我們觀察到該地區的間接影響，包括汽車生產問題以及天然氣和其他投入品的價格上漲和波動。

We've taken proactive steps to mitigate some of these effects, including creating new mechanisms for customer pricing to more accurately pass through input costs. These actions have helped, but given the volatile environment, we're still subject to significant day-to-day swings in prices. I'm confident that our teams will continue to find ways to securely source raw materials and keep our operations running to provide customers with their quality products in a timely manner.

我們已採取積極措施來減輕其中一些影響，包括為客戶定價創建新機制，以更準確地轉嫁投入成本。這些行動有所幫助，但考慮到動盪的環境，我們仍然面臨價格的日常大幅波動。我相信，我們的團隊將繼續尋找安全採購原料的方法，並保持我們的營運正常運轉，以便及時為客戶提供優質產品。

While we contend with external challenges, our strategic focus continues to be on the transformation of Trinseo to a specialty material and sustainable solution provider. As you know, we've already taken several meaningful steps in this process, including the acquisitions of our PMMA business, Aristech Surfaces and the recycled materials business, Heathland. These new businesses have greatly expanded the opportunity landscape for organic growth by providing us with access to new markets, new products and new top line synergies due to our unique product portfolio to raise these growth opportunities, we are focusing on 3 distinct dimensions of growth, which will impact our core business by: strengthening the core, extending the core and expanding the core. Internally, we've begun to refer to these distinct efforts as our S.E.E Strategy, or S.E.E. for short.

在我們應對外部挑戰的同時，我們的策略重點仍然是將盛禧奧轉型為特殊材料和永續解決方案提供者。如您所知，我們已經在過程中採取了幾個有意義的步驟，包括收購 PMMA 業務 Aristech Surfaces 和再生材料業務 Heathland。這些新業務為我們提供了進入新市場、新產品和新的頂線協同效應，大大擴大了有機成長的機會格局，因為我們獨特的產品組合可以提高這些成長機會，我們專注於三個不同的成長維度，這將透過以下方式影響我們的核心業務：強化核心、延伸核心、拓展核心。在內部，我們開始將這些獨特的努力稱為我們的 S.E.E 策略或 S.E.E.簡而言之。

We'd like to elaborate on these 3 growth dimensions to provide some color on them and to highlight some of the progress we've made. First, our strength in the core efforts, focus on improving our position in the markets in which we currently operate by reducing our cost position in our core chemistries, driving business excellence programs and delivering on cost synergies from our recent acquisitions. More importantly, our efforts to strengthen the core include our efforts to leverage our new capabilities to grow our total addressable market, or TAM.

我們想詳細闡述這 3 個成長維度，為它們提供一些色彩，並強調我們所取得的一些進展。首先，我們在核心努力方面的優勢，透過降低我們在核心化學品中的成本地位、推動業務卓越計劃以及透過我們最近的收購實現成本協同效應，重點提高我們在目前運營的市場中的地位。更重要的是，我們加強核心的努力包括利用我們的新能力來擴大我們的總目標市場（TAM）。

A good example of growing our total addressable market is through material replacement such as replacing painted metal exterior trim parts with color-matched PMMA products. This application creates value for our customers by reducing emissions, weight and cost. Material replacement is a significant opportunity for us because we can offer customers a quality product that not only costs less to use, but is more environmentally friendly by virtue of eliminating process steps or alternative materials that have higher CO2 footprints.

擴大我們的整體潛在市場的一個很好的例子是透過材料更換，例如用顏色匹配的 PMMA 產品更換塗漆金屬外飾部件。該應用程式透過減少排放、重量和成本為我們的客戶創造價值。材料替代對我們來說是一個重要的機會，因為我們可以為客戶提供優質的產品，不僅使用成本更低，而且透過消除製程步驟或具有更高二氧化碳足跡的替代材料而更加環保。

For example, because we have both PMMA and ABS in our portfolio, we're able to offer multiple end markets, a PMMA laminate sheet in any color that's reinforced by ABS rather than the more conventionally used fiberglass. This co-laminate product, which had Q1 sales volume growth of more than 20% versus prior year, provides customers with a solution that's both lower cost and more sustainable. In total, we believe we can expand our total addressable market in auto, building and construction and consumer goods by over $3 billion.

例如，由於我們的產品組合中同時包含 PMMA 和 ABS，因此我們能夠向多個終端市場提供任何顏色的 PMMA 層壓板，並由 ABS 而非更常規使用的玻璃纖維增強。該複合層壓產品第一季銷量比去年同期增長了 20% 以上，為客戶提供了成本更低、更永續的解決方案。總的來說，我們相信我們可以將汽車、建築和消費品領域的潛在市場總額擴大超過 30 億美元。

The second area of growth focus focuses on those opportunities to extend the core by moving the core business into new higher value-added applications via M&A. We will also extend the core through the implementation of our sustainability road map, which has 3 building blocks. These efforts focus on decarbonizing our operations developing an advantaged product offering based on recycled materials and lastly, developing a sustainable feedstocks business. This involves positioning Trinseo as a leader in waste polymer collection and recycling and upgrading it to our innovative technologies, which will allow us to offer more sustainable solutions. That was the main rationale behind the recent acquisition of the plastics waste collector and recycler Heathland, earlier this year. We view security of supply of sustainable feedstocks as vital to our long-term success and sustainability. While Heathland has been our first major step into recycling feedstocks, we will look to expand the sustainable business unit organically and inorganically.

第二個成長重點領域著重於透過併購將核心業務轉移到新的更高附加價值應用程式來擴展核心業務的機會。我們還將透過實施永續發展路線圖來擴展核心，該路線圖由 3 個組成部分組成。這些努力的重點是使我們的營運脫​​碳，開發基於回收材料的優勢產品，最後發展可持續的原料業務。這包括將盛禧奧定位為廢聚合物收集和回收領域的領導者，並將其升級為我們的創新技術，這將使我們能夠提供更永續的解決方案。這是今年稍早收購塑膠廢棄物收集和回收商 Heathland 的主要原因。我們認為永續原料的供應安全對於我們的長期成功和永續發展至關重要。雖然 Heathland 是我們在回收原料方面邁出的第一步，但我們將尋求有機和無機地擴展永續業務部門。

In addition to strengthening and extending our position in our core markets, we look to create additional opportunities to grow further by expanding the core through the addition of complementary technologies. This will be accomplished through targeted M&A of specialty businesses with attractive adjacent chemistries that broaden our offering into applications in mobility, building and construction, medical and consumer goods. The potential divestiture of the Styrenics business, which continues to progress, would provide us with capital that will aid in this effort. But setting aside the potential proceeds from the sale, we are well positioned to grow, thanks to our strong balance sheet and a portfolio that is very cash generative with relatively low capital intensity.

除了加強和擴大我們在核心市場的地位之外，我們還希望透過添加補充技術來擴大核心，從而創造更多的進一步發展的機會。這將透過有針對性地併購具有吸引力的相鄰化學品的專業業務來實現，這些業務將我們的產品範圍擴大到行動、建築、醫療和消費品領域的應用。苯乙烯業務的潛在剝離仍在繼續取得進展，將為我們提供有助於這項努力的資金。但拋開出售的潛在收益不談，由於我們強大的資產負債表和現金產生能力較強、資本密集度相對較低的投資組合，我們處於成長的有利位置。

To effectively guide these S.E.E. efforts, we have recently added 3 new executive leadership positions: Chief Sustainability Officer, Chief Commercial Officer, and Chief Technology Officer. These positions will report to me and be part of our executive leadership team. Francesca Reverberi was appointed as Chief Sustainability Officer last October. Her primary responsibility is to keep us on track to achieve our 2030 sustainability goals as well as expand our product portfolio of sustainable materials such as the recently launched MAGNUM Bio ABS resin for automotive applications, which contains up to 80% bio-attributed content. She will also take the lead in defining the investments and partnerships required to decarbonize our assets. In fact, her team's efforts have already defined an opportunity to decrease our already market-leading Scope 1 and 2 emissions by over 70% by 2035, which is significantly ahead of our previously stated goal of 35% reduction.

為了有效地指導這些 S.E.E.經過努力，我們最近增加了 3 個新的行政領導職位：首席永續發展長、商務長和技術長。這些職位將向我報告並成為我們執行領導團隊的一部分。 Francesca Reverberi 去年 10 月被任命為首席永續發展長。她的主要職責是讓我們走上實現2030 年永續發展目標的軌道，並擴大我們的永續材料產品組合，例如最近推出的用於汽車應用的MAGNUM Bio ABS 樹脂，其中含有高達80% 的生物成分。她還將帶頭確定我們資產脫碳所需的投資和合作夥伴關係。事實上，她的團隊的努力已經確定了到 2035 年將我們已經處於市場領先地位的範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放量減少 70% 以上的機會，這大大領先於我們之前提出的減少 35% 的目標。

I am also thrilled to point out that our Q1 sales volume and variable margin of recycled containing solutions grew 39% and 31%, respectively, over the prior year. To give you a sense of scale for our sales of these solutions, they represent about $30 million in annual variable margin.

我還很高興地指出，我們第一季回收含解決方案的銷量和可變利潤比前一年分別增長了 39% 和 31%。為了讓您了解我們這些解決方案的銷售規模，它們代表了約 3000 萬美元的年度可變利潤。

The role of Chief Commercial Officer was recently filled by Andre Lanning, who was previously responsible for our strategy and corporate development efforts. In this new role, Andre will ensure that we have the right commercial processes and tools in place to better serve our customers. He will also have oversight over all of our organic growth opportunities and we'll provide the dedicated focus to resource and drive these market-expanding efforts, which focus on material replacement. To give you some sense of scale for our existing material replacement activities, these represent about $100 million in annual variable margin.

商務長的職位最近由安德烈·蘭寧 (Andre Lanning) 擔任，他之前負責我們的策略和企業發展工作。在這個新角色中，安德烈將確保我們擁有正確的商業流程和工具，以便更好地為客戶服務。他還將監督我們所有的有機成長機會，我們將專注於資源並推動這些市場拓展工作，重點是材料替代品。為了讓您對我們現有的材料更換活動的規模有所了解，這些活動的年度可變利潤約為 1 億美元。

The role of Chief Technology Officer, which we expect to fill soon, will be responsible for creating a framework for our technology and innovation capabilities that allow us to provide solutions and products that differentiate Trinseo and expand our total addressable market.

我們預計很快就會填補首席技術官的角色，該職位將負責為我們的技術和創新能力創建一個框架，使我們能夠提供使盛禧奧脫穎而出並擴大我們總體目標市場的解決方案和產品。

Before I turn the call over to Dave, I'd like to comment on our recent press release concerning the request for information related to styrene monomer purchasing activity that we received from the European Commission in 2018. As a result of further developments on this matter, we have recorded a reserve of $36 million in the first quarter. We continue to cooperate fully and look forward to the resolution of this matter. Lastly, we do not expect this to impact the sales process of our Styrenics business.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，我想對我們最近發布的新聞稿發表評論，該新聞稿涉及我們 2018 年從歐盟委員會收到的苯乙烯單體採購活動相關信息的請求。 ，我們第一季的儲備金為3,600 萬美元。我們將繼續全力配合，期待此事得到解決。最後，我們預期這不會影響我們苯乙烯業務的銷售流程。

Now I'd like to hand the call over to Dave, who will comment on our first quarter earnings.

現在我想將電話轉交給戴夫，他將對我們第一季的收益發表評論。

Thank you, Frank. First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $178 million was similar to the prior year, but with an improvement in the quality of earnings as the specialty segments of our portfolio made up a larger share of our profitability. Last year's outsized contribution from Feedstocks, our acquired businesses and Engineered Materials. The benefit from the large favorable net timing variance in the first quarter of this year was mostly offset by about $20 million of headwinds, including lost sales from industry supply chain issues and lower margin from volatile input costs.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.78 億美元，與上年持平，但獲利品質有所改善，因為我們投資組合的專業細分市場在獲利能力中所佔份額更大。去年的巨大貢獻來自原料、我們收購的業務和工程材料。今年第一季巨大的有利淨時間差異所帶來的好處大部分被約 2000 萬美元的不利因素所抵消，其中包括行業供應鏈問題造成的銷售損失以及投入成本波動導致的利潤率下降。

While we made progress in pricing to more effectively react to rapidly increasing input costs, a high level of volatility and the lag effect of pricing still led to some earnings headwinds, mostly in Engineered Materials. The Engineered Materials segment also experienced a reduced benefit from ammonium sulfate sales during the quarter. Ammonium sulfate is a byproduct in the C3 MMA production process that we utilize in Europe. We produce about 180 kilotons of ammonium sulfate per year. As most of you are probably already aware, nitrogen fertilizers in general, have experienced a significant increase in price during the quarter because of the conflict in Ukraine. This historic price increase pushed demand out of the first quarter and into later quarters of 2022. We are already seeing demand return in Q2 as commodity grain prices are stimulating increased plantings in Europe.

儘管我們在定價方面取得了進展，以更有效地應對快速成長的投入成本，但高波動性和定價的滯後效應仍然導致了一些獲利阻力，主要是在工程材料領域。本季工程材料部門的硫酸銨銷售收益也有所減少。硫酸銨是我們在歐洲使用的 C3 MMA 生產過程中的副產品。我們每年生產約 180 噸硫酸銨。你們大多數人可能已經意識到，由於烏克蘭衝突，本季氮肥價格整體大幅上漲。這一歷史性的價格上漲將需求從第一季推至 2022 年下半年。

We had cash use of operations of $5 million during the first quarter, leading to a negative free cash flow of $30 million, which included a use of working capital of $103 million. We typically have a working capital use in the first quarter following seasonally lower December sales volume, but this year's draw was exacerbated by a steep rise in raw material prices and an inventory build ahead of planned turnarounds in the second quarter. We should generate higher cash in the coming quarters as we don't expect a continuation of the rapid rise in raw materials and as we run off inventories after midyear turnarounds. We'll continue to use the cash to grow the company and to return cash to shareholders, including via our share repurchase program, which as of the end of March, still had $100 million of authorization remaining after another $50 million of repurchases during the first quarter.

第一季我們的營運現金使用量為 500 萬美元，導致自由現金流為負 3,000 萬美元，其中包括 1.03 億美元的營運資金使用。在 12 月銷售量季節性下降之後，我們通常會在第一季使用營運資金，但今年原物料價格的急劇上漲以及第二季計畫週轉之前的庫存增加加劇了營運資金的使用。我們應該在未來幾季產生更多現金，因為我們預計原材料不會繼續快速上漲，而且我們在年中周轉後會耗盡庫存。 We'll continue to use the cash to grow the company and to return cash to shareholders, including via our share repurchase program, which as of the end of March, still had $100 million of authorization remaining after another $50 million of repurchases during the first四分之一.

Now I'll turn the call back over to Frank to comment on our updated guidance and expectations.

現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克，以評論我們更新的指導和期望。

Thanks, Dave. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect earnings to be sequentially similar as higher styrene profitability, higher margins in Engineered Materials and stronger volumes in Latex Binders are offset by more normalized margins in polystyrene, ABS and polycarbonate products.

謝謝，戴夫。展望第二季度，我們預計收益將與上一季度持平，因為苯乙烯盈利能力提高、工程材料利潤率提高以及乳膠粘合劑銷量增加，但聚苯乙烯、ABS 和聚碳酸酯產品利潤率的正常化所抵消。

We still expect 2022 to be another year of solid earnings, and we expect full year net income of $174 million to $211 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $625 to $675 million. This outlook assumes a continuation of the Q1 demand levels through the end of the year, including impacts from the Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressure and more modest automotive production growth.

我們仍預期 2022 年將是另一個穩健獲利的一年，預計全年淨利為 1.74 億美元至 2.11 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 625 美元至 6.75 億美元。這一前景假設第一季的需求水準將持續到今年年底，包括烏克蘭衝突、通膨壓力和汽車產量成長放緩的影響。

Our previous outlook reflected in easing of these conditions following the first quarter and did not consider a military conflict in Europe or ongoing COVID lockdowns in China. This also includes an anticipated $35 million impact in the second quarter from the current styrene production outages at our Terneuzen site and AmSty, St. James site. In addition, we expect no meaningful net timing impact over the remainder of the year.

我們先前的展望反映了第一季後這些情況的緩解，並且沒有考慮歐洲的軍事衝突或中國持續的新冠封鎖。這也包括我們泰爾訥曾工廠和聖詹姆斯 AmSty 工廠目前苯乙烯生產中斷預計對第二季造成的 3,500 萬美元的影響。此外，我們預計今年剩餘時間內不會產生有意義的淨時間影響。

We expect to generate cash from operations of approximately $355 million, and free cash flow of approximately $175 million, which we'll use to continue to provide value to shareholders by both growing the business in specialty and sustainable areas and providing cash returns. Certainly, there's no shortage of uncertainty in the world right now, but we're well positioned to navigate this environment with our strong balance sheet, continued progress on our transformation journey and skilled teams to provide our customers with our quality products and solutions.

我們預計將從營運中產生約 3.55 億美元的現金，以及約 1.75 億美元的自由現金流，我們將利用這些現金透過發展專業和永續領域的業務以及提供現金回報來繼續為股東提供價值。當然，目前世界上不乏不確定性，但我們有能力憑藉強大的資產負債表、轉型之旅的持續進展以及熟練的團隊來應對這種環境，為客戶提供優質的產品和解決方案。

Now we're happy to take questions. Thank you.

現在我們很樂意回答問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

I was wondering, in your comments as well as in the release, you're saying that the Styrenics divestiture process that you're running continues to progress. So I was wondering if you might be able to provide any more color on perhaps the timing or the interest level that you're seeing there. And there has been some concerns that with the energy situation in Europe, that might have made things a bit more problematic. Any color there would be very helpful.

我想知道，在您的評論和新聞稿中，您是說您正在運行的苯乙烯剝離流程仍在繼續取得進展。所以我想知道您是否能夠提供更多關於您在那裡看到的時間或興趣程度的資訊。有人擔心，鑑於歐洲的能源狀況，這可能會讓事情變得更加麻煩。任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes, Frank. As we've said previously, we expect to see this process play out by midyear, and it continues to progress as we expected. So we haven't seen any negative impacts in our process related to the energy price increases in Europe.

是的，弗蘭克。正如我們之前所說，我們預計這一過程將在年中完成，並將繼續按照我們的預期取得進展。因此，我們在我們的流程中沒有看到與歐洲能源價格上漲相關的任何負面影響。

Fantastic. Very helpful. And we saw the styrene margins come in better than anticipated. I was wondering what your outlook is there?

極好的。非常有幫助。我們看到苯乙烯的利潤率比預期好。我想知道你的看法如何？

So we think styrene margin with -- while the styrene margins are significantly elevated right now because of a number of outages in the industry as well as the arbitrage window being unavailable because of logistics challenges, so we see that fly-up margin or the higher-than-normal margins in styrene to continue through Q2, but then normalize in the second half of the year to basically a 0 EBITDA contribution level. In Europe, AmSty will revert back to its normalized earnings levels because of their advantaged cost positions.

因此，我們認為苯乙烯利潤率目前顯著上升，因為該行業出現了多次停電，而且由於物流挑戰而導致套利窗口不可用，因此我們認為苯乙烯利潤率會大幅上升或更高苯乙烯的利潤率將持續到第二季​​度高於正常水平，但隨後在下半年恢復正常，基本上達到0 EBITDA 貢獻水平。在歐洲，AmSty 由於其成本優勢，將恢復正常獲利水準。

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Guys, can you just bridge the EBITDA reduction guidance? I know a big chunk of that is the outages in Terneuzen and St. James. Could you bridge the remainder of that, I think $75 million decrease at the midpoint of the current and prior EBITDA guidance?

夥計們，你們能彌補 EBITDA 削減指導嗎？我知道其中很大一部分是泰爾訥曾和聖詹姆斯的停電。您能否彌補其餘部分，我認為當前和之前 EBITDA 指導的中點減少了 7500 萬美元？

So maybe I'll give you -- I think the simple answer is we think that we think the rest of the year will continue in an environment similar to what we experienced in Q1 with the elimination of the -- a timing benefit in the fly-up margin that we're currently seeing in styrene margins ending and not recurring in the second half of the year. So that's how we get to the full year. To the extent that there's an improvement in the conditions that we see versus Q1, there would be some upside.

所以也許我會給你——我認為簡單的答案是，我們認為今年剩餘時間將繼續處於類似於我們在第一季經歷的環境中，消除了——即時的時間優勢我們目前看到苯乙烯利潤率的上昇在今年下半年結束並且不會再出現。這就是我們如何度過全年的。如果我們看到的情況與第一季相比有所改善，那麼就會有一些好處。

Dave, it's Dave. To add on to, if you don't mind, the -- to be clear on the $75 million reduction, you correctly highlighted the $35 million that we expect the impact of the outages to be in the quarter, and that's across both Americas Styrenics and our own Feedstocks segment, that is not a component of the $75 million because our prior guidance didn't assume those fly-up margins to begin with, right?

戴夫，是戴夫。如果您不介意的話，還要補充一點——為了明確 7500 萬美元的削減，您正確地強調了我們預計本季度停電影響的 3500 萬美元，這涉及美洲苯乙烯公司以及我們自己的原料部門，這不是7500 萬美元的組成部分，因為我們之前的指導一開始就沒有假設這些飛漲的利潤，對嗎？

So that's -- yes, that -- so I think to -- so the real composition, the change in guidance is entirely due to a change in our assumptions on the business conditions through the rest of the year from what we gave in the first quarter. And to break that down a little more finely, I mean there's really 3 components that there's automotive demand, which is across Base Plastics and Engineered Materials. There's lower margins than polycarbonate that we highlighted, and the other bucket is really a lot of smaller things, but are really all -- really attributable to the same things that we've been talking about, supply chain challenges and...

So that's -- yes, that -- so I think to -- so the real composition, the change in guidance is entirely due to a change in our assumptions on the business conditions through the rest of the year from what we gave in the first四分之一.為了更精細地分解，我的意思是汽車需求實際上有 3 個組件，即基礎塑膠和工程材料。其利潤率比我們強調的聚碳酸酯要低，而另一個桶確實是很多較小的東西，但實際上都是- 真正歸因於我們一直在談論的同樣的事情，供應鏈挑戰和.. ....

COVID-related shutdowns.

與新冠肺炎相關的停工。

Yes. COVID-related shutdowns issues in China. Those are largely the 3 buckets. But I just want to make sure you understand that the $35 million is not part of that bridge.

是的。中國與新冠肺炎相關的停工問題。這些主要是 3 個桶。但我只是想確保您明白，3500 萬美元並不是這座橋樑的一部分。

No, very helpful, Dave. And just on ammonium sulfate, can you quantify the shift of earnings from Q1 to the back half of the year? And what's normalized earnings in that line of business for you guys?

不，非常有幫助，戴夫。僅就硫酸銨而言，您能否量化第一季到下半年的獲利變化？對你們來說，該業務領域的正常收入是多少？

Well, the way we account for that, Dave, is it is a byproduct of producing MMA. So the way we account for it, we don't book revenue and margin that you would see, it's booked as a credit to the manufacturing cost, okay? So it lowers cost of goods sold, I guess, you would say. I probably wouldn't consider that, Dave, to be a profit. I mean, it obviously is profitable. But the way we think about it is it's a natural hedge against -- it's a natural hedge that exists in that business against a portion of our natural gas purchases. And the reason I say that is what drives the price of ammonium sulfate is the price of ammonia. What drives the price of ammonia, it's natural gas. So the sales of that byproduct -- the sales -- the dollar amount of those sales is really driven by the price of natural gas. And like I said, the income, if you will, that we recognize from the sales really serve as a natural offset of part of our natural gas purchases. Does that make sense?

戴夫，我們的解釋是，它是 MMA 生產的副產品。因此，我們的會計方式是，我們不會像您所看到的那樣記入收入和利潤，而是將其記入製造成本，好嗎？所以你會說，我猜它降低了銷售商品的成本。戴夫，我可能不會認為這是一種利潤。我的意思是，這顯然是有利可圖的。但我們的想法是，這是一種自然對沖——這是該業務中存在的針對我們購買的部分天然氣的自然對沖。我之所以說硫酸銨價格上漲的原因是氨的價格。驅動氨價格的因素是天然氣。因此，該副產品的銷售——銷售——這些銷售的美元金額實際上是由天然氣價格驅動的。就像我說的，如果你願意的話，我們從銷售中確認的收入確實可以作為我們部分天然氣採購的自然抵銷。這樣有道理嗎？

It does, and I appreciate that detail.

確實如此，我很欣賞這個細節。

Your next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global Advisors.

您的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global Advisors 的 Hassan Ahmed。

A question around EM segment margins. They jumped up nicely, sequentially from, call it, 9.4% to 11.9%. The question is that, I mean, obviously, 2022 is certainly not a normal year with all the cross-currents we're seeing, be it logistical, be it sort of auto end market demand and the like, twofold question. One is, where would these margins sit through the course of 2022? And where do you see them going in a more normalized environment?

關於新興市場細分市場利潤的問題。他們的漲幅很好，依序從 9.4% 上升到 11.9%。問題是，我的意思是，顯然，2022 年肯定不是正常的一年，我們看到了所有的矛盾，無論是物流方面，還是汽車終端市場需求等等，雙重問題。一是，到 2022 年，這些利潤率會維持在什麼水準？在更正常化的環境中，您認為他們會走向何方？

So the -- so thanks for the question. And what -- let me first point out that, as Dave mentioned, we did have some headwinds in Q1, and that we highlighted in the earnings release. And in fact, we said there were approximately $20 million of nonrecurring headwinds in the first quarter. I would say slightly less than half of that accrued to EM. So you could expect that in Q1, we would have had low $40 million adjusted EBITDA contribution from EM minus those nonrecurring items, it puts us into the mid-teen range.

所以，謝謝你的提問。首先讓我指出，正如戴夫所提到的，我們在第一季確實遇到了一些阻力，我們在財報發布中強調了這一點。事實上，我們說過第一季大約有 2000 萬美元的非經常性不利因素。我想說，其中不到一半屬於新興市場。因此，您可以預期，在第一季度，我們將獲得來自新興市場的 4000 萬美元調整後 EBITDA 貢獻，減去那些非經常性項目，這使我們處於中位數範圍。

Now what's historically or when we guided to, gave some feedback on where we envisioned EM being in the low $20 million -- or over $50 million quarterly EBITDA contribution that contemplates a normalization of auto builds to a level that we were anticipating historically, but it also would contemplate that the supply chain issues and the extreme freight inflation coming out of China normalizes as those 2 factors are depressing, let's say, demand for EM materials.

現在，從歷史上看，或者當我們指導時，我們對新興市場的預期提供了一些反饋，即季度EBITDA 貢獻在2000 萬美元以下或超過5000 萬美元，考慮到汽車製造的正常化到我們歷史預期的水平，但它也會考慮供應鏈問題和來自中國的極端運費通膨正常化，因為這兩個因素正在抑制對新興市場材料的需求。

So I think in the near term, we expect that those onetime issues to go away and in the medium term as we continue growing the -- these growth programs as well as we see markets in China and in automotive normalizing, we would get into the low 50s.

因此，我認為，在短期內，我們預計這些一次性問題將會消失，在中期，隨著我們繼續發展這些成長計畫以及我們看到中國市場和汽車業的正常化，我們將進入低50 多歲。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, in the press release you guys put out, there was a line stating that the synergy pipeline is greater than anticipated. I'd love some sort of further color around that.

非常有幫助。作為後續行動，在你們發布的新聞稿中，有一句話指出協同管道比預期的要大。我喜歡圍繞它的一些進一步的顏色。

So the -- on the cost synergies, we're clearly on track to deliver the year 1 savings of $10 million. We're clearly above that. The full synergies between the Aristech Surfaces as well as the PMMA acquisition, where, in total, cost saving synergies were $60 million, is what we stated over the 3-year period -- the first 3 years. We're well on track to achieve those, and we see greater -- a bigger pipeline than that $60 million in aggregate. We're significantly higher -- is on the growth side. And as I mentioned in the market expansion opportunities that we have that we previously didn't have, we can expand our total addressable market by over $3 billion. And so it's a very significant expansion opportunity.

因此，就成本協同效應而言，我們顯然有望在第一年節省 1000 萬美元。我們顯然高於這個水平。 Aristech Surfaces 與 PMMA 收購之間的全面協同效應，總共節省了 6,000 萬美元的成本，正如我們在 3 年期間（前 3 年）所述。我們正在順利實現這些目標，我們看到了比這 6000 萬美元總額更大的管道。我們明顯更高——是在成長方面。正如我在我們以前沒有的市場擴張機會中提到的，我們可以將我們的總目標市場擴大超過 30 億美元。因此，這是一個非常重要的擴張機會。

And as I said in the script, it was -- those market -- material replacement activities today that are ongoing represent $100 million in annual variable margins. So they're ongoing. They are significant already, and they're growing much faster than the market because of the value proposition that we offer. So that's the color I would give you.

正如我在劇本中所說，今天正在進行的那些市場材料更換活動代表了 1 億美元的年度可變利潤。所以他們正在繼續。它們已經很重要，而且由於我們提供的價值主張，它們的成長速度比市場快得多。這就是我給你的顏色。

Next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自勞倫斯·亞歷山大和傑弗里斯的對話。

A question about sort of your customer activity. I mean to what extent -- given the range of end markets your exposure to, to what extent are any customer or value chains not living hand to mouth, that is selling everything they produce? Are you seeing any signs of customers [being able] to get some slack and build inventory?

關於您的客戶活動類型的問題。我的意思是，考慮到您所接觸的終端市場的範圍，任何客戶或價值鏈在多大程度上不是勉強糊口，即出售他們生產的所有產品？您是否看到任何跡象表明客戶[能夠]獲得一些閒置時間並建立庫存？

I would say, generally, the answer is no. We aren't really seeing inventories being built in any of the major markets that we participate in.

我想說，一般來說，答案是否定的。我們並沒有真正看到我們參與的任何主要市場正在建立庫存。

And can you give a feel for kind of the level of incentives and the kind of capital intensity of expanding capacity in your downstream businesses, given how strong demand is and the size of the opportunity in the new product replacement areas?

考慮到新產品替代領域的需求有多強勁以及機會的大小，您能否介紹一下下游業務擴大產能的激勵水平和資本密集度？

Yes. So in the product replacement technologies, there -- it's a mixed bag. And I would say there's probably 5 distinct opportunities that we have. Many of these, we have the ability to grow organically with very little capital investment. So single-digit to low double-digit million capital investments to affect the growth in those areas. So they are not capital intensive, and we have the ability to grow them significantly.

是的。因此，在產品替代技術方面，情況魚龍混雜。我想說，我們可能有 5 個不同的機會。其中許多，我們有能力以很少的資本投資實現有機成長。因此，單位數到低兩位數的資本投資會影響這些領域的成長。因此，它們不是資本密集的，我們有能力大幅成長它們。

One -- I guess the one thing is that we pointed this out previously, we will make an expansion of our PMMA business into Asia, and that capital is in the mid double-digit million capital size. Now the -- I do want to spend a second on the opportunities that I highlighted to reduce the carbon footprint of our business because we see not only does it improve our environmental footprint, but it creates an OpEx savings and reduces our energy dependence. And there are the $70 million in -- or 70% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions that I referenced in the script is associated with approximately $100 million of capital investment over the rest of this decade.

一——我想一件事是我們之前指出的，我們將把我們的 PMMA 業務擴展到亞洲，資本規模在百萬美元左右。現在，我確實想花一點時間談談我強調的減少我們業務碳足跡的機會，因為我們看到它不僅改善了我們的環境足跡，而且還節省了營運支出並減少了我們的能源依賴。我在腳本中提到的 7000 萬美元（即範圍 1 和 2 排放量減少 70%）與本十年餘下時間約 1 億美元的資本投資相關。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略（Angel Castillo）。

Just a quick one on the normalization around margins for ABS, polystyrene and polycarbonate. One, I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color as to what you're seeing across -- I know that auto is a big market within ABS or PC, but across other end markets, what are you seeing? And specifically, as we think about the second half and the margin normalization of these products, where do they go in the second half? And where do they go kind of as we think about 2023 in a more kind of steady-state environment?

簡單介紹一下 ABS、聚苯乙烯和聚碳酸酯的利潤率正常化情況。第一，我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於您所看到的資訊——我知道汽車是 ABS 或 PC 的一個大市場，但在其他終端市場，您看到了什麼？具體來說，當我們考慮下半年和這些產品的利潤正常化時，它們會在下半年走向何方？當我們在更穩定的環境中思考 2023 年時，它們會走向何方？

Well, let me -- I'll give you some background and -- so as you know, PC and ABS, the biggest consuming regions of -- in the world is China, with some of the rolling lockdowns, the demand in Asia has been reduced. And at the same time, we've seen double -- low double-digit capacity expansions to the global supply occurring PC and ABS in Asia. And so that's put some margin pressure or made the supply/demand balance, it's gotten a bit long, and we anticipate that staying through the remainder of the year, and that's what's driving the normalization of the margins that we anticipate.

好吧，讓我 - 我會給你一些背景知識 - 如你所知，PC 和 ABS 是世界上最大的消費地區 - 中國，由於一些滾動封鎖，亞洲的需求已經下降被減少。同時，我們看到亞洲 PC 和 ABS 的全球供應量出現了雙倍低兩位數的產能擴張。因此，這會帶來一些利潤壓力或造成供需平衡，時間有點長，我們預計這種情況會持續到今年剩餘時間，這就是推動我們預期利潤率正常化的原因。

Got it. That's very helpful. And I guess, as you think about -- I think the guidance right now implies something like a $150 million type EBITDA in the back half kind of exit rate, so roughly $600 million on an annualized basis. Is that the level you would kind of anticipate as we move forward? Or it sounds like it's fairly derisked as autos and other end markets recover, you would anticipate further, I guess, improvement in that. But just as we think about other products normalizing like ABS, PC, would you anticipate some kind of offset, and therefore, that $600 million is roughly kind of a good level as we think beyond 2022? Or is that -- how would you think about it?

知道了。這非常有幫助。我想，正如你所想，我認為現在的指導意味著後半部分的 EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元，按年化計算約為 6 億美元。這是您在我們前進過程中所預期的水平嗎？或者，隨著汽車和其他終端市場的復甦，聽起來它的風險相當低，我猜你會預期這方面會進一步改善。但正如我們考慮 ABS、PC 等其他產品的正常化一樣，您是否會預期某種抵消，因此，6 億美元大致是我們認為 2022 年之後的一個不錯的水平？或者說——你會怎麼想？

Yes. Angel, the answer is yes. This is Dave. The answer is yes. There is an offset, and the offset is going to be improvement in Engineered Materials for the reasons that we just talked about. So to be clear and just to add on to what Frank said, I mean, I think the direct question was, is there still some over-earning that exists in Base Plastics and polystyrene in Q1? I mean, clearly, we highlighted that Q4 was -- there was some over-earning, and that over-earning -- there probably was some over-earning that existed in the first quarter also. So you're right, we do expect a normal -- kind of a normalization of margins in both polystyrene and Base Plastics as we go to the back half of the year.

是的。天使，答案是肯定的。這是戴夫。答案是肯定的。存在一個偏移，並且由於我們剛才談到的原因，該偏移將在工程材料方面得到改進。因此，為了澄清並補充弗蘭克所說的內容，我的意思是，我認為直接的問題是，第一季基礎塑膠和聚苯乙烯是否仍然存在一些超額收益？我的意思是，顯然，我們強調第四季度存在一些超額收益，而且第一季可能也存在一些超額收益。所以你是對的，我們確實預計到今年下半年，聚苯乙烯和基礎塑膠的利潤率會正常化。

To put a number on that on a quarterly basis, I would say the 2 of those combined probably over-earned by $20 million to $25 million in the first quarter. So that's the magnitude, I'd say, of the normalization. So yes, and you're right also what the guidance implies is order of magnitude of $150 million or $600 million a quarter in the back half of the year, moving -- what will offset that decline? I mean, it's clearly improvement in Engineered Materials. And the other thing is realization of synergies. As Frank said -- I'm talking about the cost synergies here. The -- as Frank said, we're well ahead of our what we said was the target for the first quarter and looking -- for the first year and looking ahead to the second year. So I think those 2 things combined are what offsets the decline, Angel.

如果按季度計算的話，我認為其中 2 家公司在第一季的盈利可能會超額 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。我想說，這就是正常化的程度。所以，是的，你也是對的，指導意見暗示的是今年下半年每季度 1.5 億美元或 6 億美元的數量級，移動 - 什麼將抵消這種下降？我的意思是，這顯然是工程材料的進步。另一件事是實現協同效應。正如弗蘭克所說——我在這裡談論的是成本協同效應。正如弗蘭克所說，我們遠遠超出了我們所說的第一季目標，並展望第一年和展望第二年。所以我認為這兩件事的結合可以抵消下降的影響，天使。

The next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.

下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company 的 Matthew Blair。

So I think back in December, you announced the $200 million buyback program over the next 18 months. Q1 buyback is quite strong, over $50 million. How should we think about the cadence of buybacks in Q2 and beyond? And is there potential for you to re-up this program -- finish it early and re-up at higher levels?

所以我記得去年 12 月，你們宣布了未來 18 個月內 2 億美元的回購計畫。第一季回購力度相當強勁，超過 5,000 萬美元。我們該如何看待第二季及以後的回購節奏？你們是否有可能重新啟動這個計劃——儘早完成並達到更高的水平？

Yes. Matthew, it's Dave again. Yes, look, is there a potential? I mean, absolutely. As I said, we have another $100 million left under the authorization. We see a lot of value in buying back our stock at these levels. I would expect Q2 to be a similar number to Q1. And as -- when the program exhausts ourselves, we'll talk to our Board in light of our balance sheet position, whatever -- what other cash needs we have and have a discussion about putting in place a new authorization. But -- so I don't want to -- I can't really comment beyond that other than to say that we clearly see a lot of value in buying back stock at our current multiple on cash flow yield and expect a similar number to Q1 and Q4.

是的。馬修，又是戴夫。是啊，你看，有潛力嗎？我的意思是，絕對是。正如我所說，我們還剩下 1 億美元的授權。我們認為在這樣的水平上回購股票具有很大的價值。我預計第二季的數字與第一季的數字相似。當該計劃耗盡我們自己的精力時，我們將根據我們的資產負債表狀況與董事會進行討論，無論如何，我們還需要哪些現金，並討論如何實施新的授權。但是——所以我不想——除了說我們清楚地看到以目前的現金流收益率倍數回購股票具有很大價值之外，我無法真正發表評論，並預計類似的數字Q1 和 Q4。

There are no question at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。