Tenaris SA (TS) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the first-quarter Tenaris S.A. earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Tenaris S.A. 第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to the Investor Relations Officer, Giovanni Sardagna. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把會議交給投資人關係主管 Giovanni Sardagna。請開始。

  • Giovanni Sardagna - President, United States

    Giovanni Sardagna - President, United States

  • Thank you, Carmen, and welcome to Tenaris 2026 first-quarter conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information during the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied in this call. With me on the call today are Gabriel Podskubka, our newly appointed Chief Executive Officer; Carlos Gómez Álzaga, our Chief Financial Officer, and Guillermo Moreno, President of our US operations.

    謝謝你,Carmen,並歡迎各位參加 Tenaris 2026 年第一季電話會議。在開始之前,我想提醒各位,我們將在會議中討論前瞻性資訊,而我們的實際結果可能與本次會議中明示或暗示的內容有所差異。今天與我一同出席的有:我們新任執行長 Gabriel Podskubka;我們的財務長 Carlos Gómez Álzaga,以及我們美國營運總裁 Guillermo Moreno。

  • Before passing over the call to Gabriel for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our first-quarter sales reached $3.1 billion, up 6% year over year and 4% sequentially, despite the disruption in the Middle East caused by the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Our sales benefited from seasonally higher activity in Canada, a limited recovery of activity in Mexico, higher offshore sales in Brazil, some stock building in North Africa, and an advance of shipment in Saudi Arabia.

    在把電話交給 Gabriel 發表開場談話之前,我想先簡要評論本季業績。我們第一季銷售額達 31 億美元,年增 6%、季增 4%,儘管中東衝突造成干擾並導致荷姆茲海峽關閉。我們的銷售受惠於加拿大季節性活動增加、墨西哥活動有限度回升、巴西離岸銷售增加、北非部分備貨,以及沙烏地阿拉伯提前出貨。

  • Average selling prices in our tubes operating segment increased 5% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2025, and 1% sequentially. Our quarterly EBITDA rose 3% sequentially to $735 million, while our net income increased 22% to $564 million due to better results below the operating line. Our EBITDA margin remained at 24% as higher costs for maintenance shutdowns were offset by lower tariff costs.

    我們管材營運部門的平均售價較 2025 年同期上升 5%,較前一季上升 1%。本季 EBITDA 較前一季成長 3% 至 7.35 億美元;由於營業線以下項目表現改善,淨利增加 22% 至 5.64 億美元。我們的 EBITDA 利潤率維持在 24%,因維修停機帶來的較高成本被較低的關稅成本所抵銷。

  • With operating cash flow of $618 million and capital expenditure of $114 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was $503 million. Following share buybacks of $90 million during the quarter, our net cash position at the end of the quarter increased to $3.8 billion.

    本季營運現金流為 6.18 億美元,資本支出為 1.14 億美元,因此本季自由現金流為 5.03 億美元。本季進行 9,000 萬美元庫藏股回購後,季末淨現金部位增加至 38 億美元。

  • Now, I will ask Gabriel to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

    現在,我將請 Gabriel 在我們開放提問之前先說幾句。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Giovanni, and I would like to extend a warm welcome to all of you. Before we go to our results, I would like to express that I'm deeply honored by the trust that Paolo Rocca and the Tenaris Board of Directors have placed in me, and with it, the enormous responsibility of leading this company in the next phase of growth. At the same time, I'm very pleased that we will be able to count on the continuing support and leadership of Paolo as Chairman of the Board.

    謝謝你,Giovanni,也想向各位致上誠摯的歡迎。在談到業績之前,我想表達:Paolo Rocca 與 Tenaris 董事會對我的信任令我深感榮幸,同時也意味著在下一階段成長中領導公司的重大責任。另一方面,我也非常高興 Paolo 將以董事長身分持續提供支持與領導。

  • When I joined the company as a graduate engineer in 1995, I never imagined how Tenaris would grow so quickly and come to play the leading role in serving the world's energy industry that it does today. During all these years, Paolo has been the architect of the growth and the transformation of Tenaris, and a constant presence and inspiration to all of us. The journey has been truly extraordinary, and it has been a privilege to experience it from the inside and to have had so many opportunities for professional growth. I look forward to building on his remarkable achievements.

    1995 年我以應屆工程師身分加入公司時,從未想像 Tenaris 會如此快速成長,並在今日於服務全球能源產業方面扮演領導角色。多年來,Paolo 一直是 Tenaris 成長與轉型的設計者,也是我們所有人持續的存在與啟發。這段旅程確實非凡,能從內部親身經歷並獲得如此多專業成長機會,是我的榮幸。我期待在他卓越成就的基礎上繼續前進。

  • Now, let's move on to our first-quarter results and the panorama that we have ahead. This quarter reminding us that the geopolitical risk and uncertainty is ever present in the oil and gas industry. As is well known, the conflict in the Middle East has led to the closure of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG normally passes.

    現在,讓我們進入第一季業績以及未來展望。本季再次提醒我們,地緣政治風險與不確定性在油氣產業中始終存在。眾所周知,中東衝突導致荷姆茲海峽關閉,全球約 20% 的原油與 LNG 平時都經由此處通行。

  • During this time, our first priority has been the safety of our 1,000 employees in the region. I would like to give a special thanks to them for their unwavering commitment to serving our customers through this turbulent period.

    在此期間,我們的首要任務一直是確保本區域 1,000 名員工的安全。我也要特別感謝他們在這段動盪期間,仍以堅定承諾持續服務客戶。

  • In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, our customers have continued their operations, and we continue to support them. However, customers in Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq have had to shut in most of their operations. We expect our sales in the region to be affected in the second quarter in around $140 million. We are also seeing higher logistic costs as we seek alternative routes to the region and also from the global increase in fuel prices.

    在沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋,我們的客戶仍持續營運,我們也持續提供支援。然而,科威特、卡達與伊拉克的客戶不得不關閉其大部分作業。我們預期第二季本區域銷售將受到約 1.4 億美元的影響。由於我們尋求替代路線運往該區域,以及全球燃料價格上升,我們也看到更高的物流成本。

  • Amidst the regional turmoil, we continue to differentiate our service in the region. ADNOC Offshore recognized our reliable service and HSE performance with a Supplier of the Year Award. In Kuwait, we have been awarded a five-year contract for the supply of casing products and accessories to be used in the development of a complex new field.

    在區域動盪之中,我們仍持續以差異化服務在當地脫穎而出。ADNOC Offshore 以「年度供應商獎」肯定我們可靠的服務與 HSE 表現。在科威特,我們獲得一份為期五年的合約,供應套管產品與配件,用於一個複雜新油田的開發。

  • As an immediate consequence of the supply disruption in the Middle East, oil and gas companies and consuming countries are looking at diversifying supply. Investment in short cycle shale plays in the Americas are likely to benefit, and some Rig Direct customers in the United States and Argentina are already confirming that they are adding rigs. The fleet of high spec rigs operating in Vaca Muerta is expected to increase by 15% by the year end as new rigs and hydraulic fracturing sets are brought into the country.

    作為中東供應中斷的直接後果,油氣公司與消費國正著眼於供應多元化。美洲短週期頁岩開發投資可能受惠,美國與阿根廷的一些 Rig Direct 客戶已確認正在增加鑽機。隨著新鑽機與水力壓裂設備組進入國內,預期在 Vaca Muerta 作業的高規格鑽機機隊到年底將增加 15%。

  • Tenaris will start to operate its third set of hydraulic fracturing equipment towards the end of the year. We are preparing for an increase of activity in the United States in the second half of the year, while in Canada, industry and government are working to increase LNG and pipeline takeaway capacity, which will allow activity growth in the years ahead.

    Tenaris 將在年底前後開始營運第三套水力壓裂設備。我們正為美國下半年活動增加做準備;同時在加拿大,產業與政府正合作提升 LNG 與管線外運能力,這將使未來幾年活動得以成長。

  • We are also strengthening our Rig Direct service through the integration of AllTorque, hardware, and software for torque turn monitoring operations. We recently acquired this specialized technology and know-how that now forms part of our well integrity service and will add further value to our customers.

    我們也透過整合 AllTorque 來強化 Rig Direct 服務,AllTorque 提供用於扭矩上扣(torque turn)監測作業的硬體與軟體。我們近期收購了這項專業技術與 know-how,現已納入我們的井完整性服務,並將為客戶創造更多價值。

  • The outlook for deep water drilling, offshore pipeline construction, and further exploration activity during the next three years is promising. There is a significant number of deep water projects in Africa, Asia, and the Mediterranean, which are nearing final investment decisions, while in the United States, Brazil, and the Guyana-Suriname basin, developments are also moving forward. Operators are looking to shorten time from discovery to first production, and Tenaris is supporting them by fast-tracking the integrated supply of OCTG, line pipe, coating, and accessories.

    未來三年深水鑽探、離岸管線建設以及進一步勘探活動的前景可期。非洲、亞洲與地中海有相當多深水專案正接近最終投資決策;同時在美國、巴西以及蓋亞那—蘇利南盆地,開發也在推進。營運商希望縮短從發現到首次投產的時間,Tenaris 透過加速整合供應 OCTG、管線鋼管(line pipe)、塗層與配件來支援他們。

  • As we look into the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Tenaris, with its extensive presence, flexible supply options around the world, its differentiated service and technology for shale and deep water operations, and the strength of its financial position, is well-placed to serve our customers as they respond to the need to replenish oil and gas inventories and increase drilling activity.

    展望荷姆茲海峽最終重新開放之際,Tenaris 憑藉其廣泛的在地布局、全球彈性的供應選項、針對頁岩與深水作業的差異化服務與技術,以及強健的財務狀況,已具備良好條件在客戶因應補充油氣庫存並提高鑽探活動之需求時,提供服務。

  • I would now open the floor for questions.

    現在我開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Sebastian Erskine, Rothschild & Company.

    (接線員指示)Sebastian Erskine,Rothschild & Company。

  • Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

    Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, gentlemen, and Gabriel, best wishes to you on the new chapter here as CEO. My first question actually on the 2Q kind of guide. You indicated $440 million impact from kind of lower revenue and then the higher kind of cost impact.

    嗨,各位早安。Gabriel,也祝你以執行長身分開啟新篇章一切順利。我第一個問題其實是關於第二季的指引。你提到因收入較低帶來約 4.4 億美元的影響,然後還有較高成本的影響。

  • Could you maybe venture and give a sense of what that looks like in terms of absolute EBITDA impact from the higher costs? I presume, if I assume decremental sort of 50%, and then obviously the logistics cost in absolute terms. Any color on what that might look like to EBITDA, and then should we expect you to operate at sort of lower end of that 20% to 25% sort of medium-term target?

    你是否可以嘗試說明一下,較高成本對 EBITDA 的絕對影響大概會是什麼樣子?我猜如果我假設遞減率(decremental)約 50%,再加上物流成本的絕對金額。能否提供一些對 EBITDA 可能影響的補充說明?另外,我們是否應預期你們的營運利潤率會落在中期目標 20% 到 25% 區間的較低端?

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Very good. Thank you, Sebastian, for the question and for the kind remarks. Regarding the second quarter, as I was anticipating, due to the situation in the Middle East, we expect in the second quarter lower revenues, probably mid to high single digits is the range that we would like to guide today. There's still uncertainty, and this is mainly driven by the Middle East conflict. This $140 million that we had earmarked for invoicing in the second quarter. $40 million of that was anticipated in the first quarter. And the balance, due to the difficulties to get into the region, are probably going to go into the third-quarter delay.

    非常好。謝謝你,Sebastian,提出問題並給予肯定的評語。關於第二季,正如我先前預期的,由於中東局勢,我們預期第二季營收會較低;今天我們希望給出的指引區間大概是中到高個位數的降幅。目前仍存在不確定性,而這主要是由中東衝突所驅動。我們原本規劃在第二季開立發票的1.40億美元,其中4,000萬美元已提前在第一季入帳。其餘部分因為進入該地區的困難,可能會延後到第三季。

  • This is on the revenue side. Then you're talking about EBITDA margin. There, we expect the EBITDA margin to contract a couple of points. This is going to be one-third related to the logistic cost that I will comment in a minute, and two-thirds related to the lower absorption of fixed cost, semi-fixed cost related to the lower volumes that we expect this quarter.

    這是營收端。接著你提到EBITDA利潤率。我們預期EBITDA利潤率會收縮幾個百分點。其中三分之一與物流成本相關,我稍後會說明;另外三分之二則與我們預期本季出貨量較低、導致固定成本與半固定成本吸收不足有關。

  • Logistic is an important component. We expect about $32 million of higher logistic cost in this second quarter due to the conflict. And here, we need to separate two effects: one, the difficulty in arriving to our customers through the Strait of Hormuz. We have additional cost on vessels that are waiting for berth in ports that are either in Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, in the outer part of Hormuz on the Emirates, or Oman as well, some ports in Oman that we're using, or even Jeddah in the Red Sea to access to Saudi.

    物流是一個重要組成部分。由於衝突,我們預期第二季物流成本將增加約3,200萬美元。在這裡,我們需要區分兩個影響:第一,是透過荷姆茲海峽抵達客戶的困難。我們的船舶在港口等待靠泊產生了額外成本,這些港口可能位於富查伊拉(Fujairah)或豪爾費坎(Khor Fakkan),也就是在阿聯酋一側、荷姆茲海峽外側的區域;也包括阿曼,我們使用的阿曼部分港口;甚至包括紅海的吉達(Jeddah),以便進入沙烏地。

  • Waiting times, unloading and a second leg, an inland transportation that is additional to the cost that we would normally have, if the strait would be open. This accounts to around $8 million of estimate additional cost in the quarter.

    等待時間、卸貨,以及第二段的內陸運輸,這些都是在海峽若能正常通行時我們通常不會發生的額外成本。我們估計這部分在本季約增加800萬美元成本。

  • In addition to that, and related to the price of oil, fuel prices are going up all over the world. This creates an additional cost of logistics, mainly in trucking, to some extent also in maritime and freights, and also railroads. This is around, in our estimate, $24 million of higher freight costs related to the increase in fuel in the different parts of the world; clearly a higher impact in North America, given the amount of intensity and service that we have, especially in US and Canada. These effects are temporary in this quarter, contracting the EBITDA margin.

    此外,與油價相關,燃料價格在全球各地都在上升。這造成物流成本增加,主要在卡車運輸上,某種程度也影響海運與貨運,以及鐵路運輸。依我們估計,因全球各地燃料上漲而導致的運費增加約2,400萬美元;其中北美的影響明顯更大,因為我們在那裡的作業強度與服務量很高,尤其是在美國與加拿大。這些影響在本季屬於暫時性,會壓縮EBITDA利潤率。

  • Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

    Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you, Gabriel. My second question is on the North American business, obviously performing very well, now at a higher commodity price environment, likely to see a ramp-up in spending at some point from E&Ps. If I look at the business, do you expect the growth predominantly to be led by pricing? We're seeing obviously Pipe Logix is now beginning to step up. Or by volume, Is there really that much more kind of share gain to take given your position already? So I'm just thinking about that. Is it pricing-led or volume-led in North America going forward? Thank you.

    這非常有幫助。謝謝你,Gabriel。我第二個問題是關於北美業務,顯然表現非常好;在商品價格較高的環境下,E&P業者可能在某個時間點會加大支出。如果我看這項業務,你們預期成長主要會由價格帶動嗎?我們看到Pipe Logix現在開始上升。還是由量帶動?考量你們已經有既有的市場地位,真的還有那麼多可以再取得的市占嗎?所以我在想,未來北美是價格帶動還是量帶動?謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Sebastian, on this point, I think the short answer is both volume and pricing. I will let Guillermo give you a bit of on color about what we expect on North America on the second half of the year, where we're seeing activity increase and possible price increases, and this will be -- it's part of the improved outlook towards the second half of the year for Tenaris.

    是的。Sebastian,針對這點,我想簡短的答案是:量與價格兩者都有。我會請Guillermo補充一些我們對北美下半年預期的細節;我們看到活動增加以及可能的漲價,而這也將成為Tenaris下半年展望改善的一部分。

  • Guillermo Moreno - President, United States

    Guillermo Moreno - President, United States

  • Thank you, Gabriel, and good afternoon, Sebastian. As you said, we are expecting upside in both in terms of activity and sales and in prices moving forward. By talking with our clients, we are starting them to say that they will be adding rigs, particularly led by the small private operators, but also some medium and large-size independents are planning to add rigs. Putting all together, our expectation is that activity by the end of the year in terms of rig count will increase around 50 rigs. In other words, around 10% of activity, and we expect that we will grow with our clients in line with this. In terms of prices, Pipe Logix has increased 4% in the last 2 months, and we expect this trend to continue in the following months, mainly pushed by the increase of raw material and logistics costs, but also because of the expectation of increase of demand.

    謝謝你,Gabriel,下午好,Sebastian。正如你所說,我們預期未來在活動與銷售,以及價格方面都會有上行空間。透過與客戶交流,我們開始聽到他們表示將增加鑽機數,特別是由小型民營業者帶動,但也有一些中型與大型獨立業者計畫增加鑽機。綜合來看,我們的預期是到今年年底,以鑽機數衡量的活動量將增加約50座鑽機。換句話說,活動量約增加10%,我們預期會與客戶同步成長。在價格方面,Pipe Logix在過去兩個月上漲了4%,我們預期這個趨勢在接下來幾個月會持續,主要由原材料與物流成本上升所推動,同時也因為需求增加的預期。

  • Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

    Sebastian Erskine - Equity Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thanks very much. I will turn it back now. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。非常感謝。我現在把時間交回去。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

    Marc Bianchi,TD Cowen。

  • Marc Bianchi - Analyst

    Marc Bianchi - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Giovanni, I didn't hear you introduce Paolo, but I'm sure he's listening. I want to congratulate him on everything that the company has accomplished under his leadership. And, Gabriel, welcome into the role.

    非常感謝。Giovanni,我沒有聽到你介紹Paolo,但我相信他正在收聽。我想祝賀他在其領導下公司所達成的一切成就。另外,Gabriel,歡迎你接任這個職務。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much, Marc, for your comment. And probably later today or tomorrow, I'll talk to Paolo and pass along the message. If he's not listening, which he probably is, but anyway.

    非常感謝你,Marc,謝謝你的評論。可能今天晚些時候或明天,我會和Paolo談談並轉達這個訊息。如果他沒有在聽——他很可能有在聽——但不管怎樣。

  • Marc Bianchi - Analyst

    Marc Bianchi - Analyst

  • Yeah, yeah. Great. Well, I guess maybe continuing the conversation of how the business is progressing here. Second quarter, you've outlined pretty clearly, but the comment in the press release was that second half recovers, assuming the strait opens shortly. Can you talk about how quickly that happens? Is the expectation that maybe third quarter can come back to be where first quarter was? Maybe unpack that a little bit for us, if you could.

    對,對。很好。我想也許延續一下關於業務進展的討論。第二季你們已經說得很清楚,但新聞稿中的評論是:假設海峽很快重新開放,下半年會復甦。你能談談這會多快發生嗎?是否預期第三季就能回到第一季的水準?如果可以的話,請幫我們稍微拆解說明一下。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Indeed, we are seeing volumes recovering in the third and fourth quarter. At this point, I would say probably towards a higher fourth quarter than the third. It's reasonable to assume that we will get very close to the first-quarter levels during the second half. This is our best estimation today.

    當然。確實,我們看到第三季與第四季的出貨量正在回升。就目前而言,我會說第四季可能會高於第三季。合理的假設是,下半年我們將非常接近第一季的水準。這是我們今天最好的估計。

  • And then we have, as Willy anticipated, the trajectory on price increases that will offset the cost increases that we're having. Because besides the logistics that we talk about, there is an impact starting in the second quarter. We have had higher raw materials on the metallic side, scrap, ferroalloys, hot rolled coils. As the full impact on these cost increases over the last few months, we will start to see, to a large extent, the full impact on that on the third quarter. So the pricing trajectory with a better North America, with a better offshore as well in the second half, will support together with the volume, an increase on the pricing, returning to EBITDA margin levels close to the first quarter.

    另外,正如Willy先前提到的,我們在價格上調的軌跡將抵消我們正在承受的成本上升。因為除了我們談到的物流之外,從第二季開始也有其他影響:金屬原材料成本上升,包括廢鋼、鐵合金、熱軋鋼捲。過去幾個月這些成本上升的完整影響,我們將在第三季開始在很大程度上看到。因此,在下半年北美更好、離岸市場也更好的情況下,價格走勢將與出貨量一起支撐價格提升,使EBITDA利潤率回到接近第一季的水準。

  • Marc Bianchi - Analyst

    Marc Bianchi - Analyst

  • And just specifically related to that, does the Pipe Logix price need to improve beyond what we've seen so far to get to that? Is it just what we've seen through April that gets you to where you just talked about by 4Q, or do we need additional Pipe Logix improvement?

    就這點更具體地問一下:要達到你剛才談到的情況,Pipe Logix的價格是否需要在目前所見的基礎上進一步改善?僅靠我們在4月看到的變化,就能讓你們在第四季達到你所說的水準嗎?還是需要Pipe Logix進一步上漲?

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • I think we need some more steam on the Pipe Logix, but I will let Guillermo comment on which are our basic premises that are typically conservative on Pipe Logix increase.

    我認為Pipe Logix還需要再多一些動能,但我會讓Guillermo說明我們對Pipe Logix上漲的基本假設,而這些假設通常是偏保守的。

  • Guillermo Moreno - President, United States

    Guillermo Moreno - President, United States

  • Yes. We need some additional increases, but our expectation is that Pipe Logix will increase at least to allow us to offset those cost increases.

    是的。我們需要一些額外的上漲,但我們的預期是Pipe Logix至少會上升到足以讓我們抵消那些成本增加。

  • Marc Bianchi - Analyst

    Marc Bianchi - Analyst

  • Yeah. Okay. Very good. Thank you. The other question I had was just on back on the Middle East and the opportunity for perhaps some more pipeline work to try to reduce the risk of all of the volume going through the strait, there's been talk of expanding the East-West Pipeline within Saudi Arabia. I'm curious what your opportunity is for that or any other similar type of investments in the region.

    好的。明白了。非常好。謝謝。我另外一個問題是回到中東,以及是否有機會透過更多管線工程來降低所有運量都必須通過海峽的風險;市場上一直在談沙烏地阿拉伯境內擴建東西向管線(East-West Pipeline)。我想了解你們在這方面或該地區其他類似投資的機會是什麼。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • In that regard, indeed, the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the pipeline going to Fujairah in the Emirates have been redundancy contingency until now, but now are strategically important. I think it's rational to assume that this is a study that might be continued and expanded. There is no clear indication, announcement that these projects are going ahead, but it's very rational to assume that they will add a lot of value. From that point of view, we see how and if this will occur, probably for this type of pipelines, you're talking about a year, two year in under a fast track scenario. This is not something that can be produced and built over a few months. In any case, we have a large diameter facility in Jubail, TenarisGPC in Saudi Arabia, so we will be ideally positioned if this project goes ahead. We have a capacity of around 450,000 tons in our facility in Saudi. Depending on the diameter, wall thickness, and the trajectory of this pipeline, these pipelines could demand hundreds of thousands of tons to be built. I think we will see how this develops over time, but we are ideally positioned to capture that from the pipeline point of view, and if there is a pipeline capacity, there's going to be drilling behind. Both in Saudi Arabia and UAE, we also have a distinctive OCTG position, so we will also benefit from that down the line. Too early to tell, but important upside opportunity for Tenaris if this develops.

    就此而言,確實,沙烏地阿拉伯的東西向管線以及通往阿聯酋富查伊拉(Fujairah)的管線,迄今一直是備援性的應急方案,但現在在戰略上變得重要。我認為合理的假設是,這是一項可能會持續並擴大的研究。目前沒有明確的跡象或公告顯示這些專案正在推進,但合理推斷它們將帶來很大的價值。從這個角度來看,我們會觀察這是否以及如何發生;對於這類管線而言,在快速推進(fast track)的情境下,你談的是一年、兩年的時間。這不是幾個月內就能生產並建造完成的事情。無論如何,我們在沙烏地阿拉伯朱拜勒(Jubail)擁有一座大口徑設施——TenarisGPC,因此若該專案推進,我們將處於理想位置。我們在沙國的設施產能約為45萬噸。視管徑、壁厚以及管線路徑而定,這些管線的建設可能需要數十萬噸的用量。我認為我們將隨時間觀察其發展,但從管線角度來看,我們處於理想位置以掌握這一機會;而若有管線產能,就會帶動後續鑽井。在沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋,我們也在OCTG(油井管材)方面具備獨特的市場地位,因此長期而言也會從中受益。現在下定論還太早,但若此事發展,對Tenaris而言是重要的上行機會。

  • Marc Bianchi - Analyst

    Marc Bianchi - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Smith, Bank of America.

    Matthew Smith,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Hi there. Good morning. Good afternoon. Congrats from myself as well, Gabriel Podskubka, and best wishes to Paolo Rocca too. Could the first question, could I focus on tariffs? The first part of that would be to ask what the current run rate you're seeing for Section 232 costs within your financials at the moment post the mitigation efforts that you've been carrying out, and whether and how you expect that cost line to evolve in the coming quarters. Then perhaps would you mind if I add on to that? Are you able to add any comments on Canadian anti-dumping headlines that we've seen in recent weeks? Thank you.

    你好。早安/午安。也向我這邊致上祝賀,Gabriel Podskubka,也向Paolo Rocca致上最好的祝福。我第一個問題想聚焦在關稅上。第一部分是想請問,在你們持續進行的緩解措施之後,目前在財務報表中看到的232條款(Section 232)成本的當前運行水準(run rate)是多少?以及你們預期這條成本線在接下來幾季會如何演變。然後如果可以的話,我想再加問一點:你們能否就我們近幾週看到的加拿大反傾銷(anti-dumping)新聞標題補充一些評論?謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Matt, for the congrats. Regarding the first point on tariffs, we have arrived to a level of tariffs impacting our first quarter results of $110 million, $120 million. We believe that we arrived to that steady state, and we will take this towards same level towards the end of the year. This is what to expect. We know that there is a USMCA that's starting to be discussed, but this will take probably all the second semester. No variations, I think that we have in our forecast in the short term for further mitigation. As you said, this number used to be much higher than that, in the range of $140, $150, I believe in at the peak. We are maximizing steel production and pipe manufacturing in the US to mitigate these tariff numbers. Regarding your second point of anti-dumping against Mexico in Canada, this is something that, yes, was announced early last month. Let me tell you first that in Canada, like in many important bases in the world, we have a strategy of mainly domestic manufacturing and sourcing. Today, in Canada, 80% of our sales of OCTG come from domestic manufacturing, but still we import from our different mills around the world to complement this local manufacturing. The impact of this anti-dumping, I believe is quite limited going forward. We expect 7% of our supply in Canada to be sourced from Tamsa going forward, in line with the pricing indication of this result.

    謝謝你,Matt,謝謝你的祝賀。關於關稅的第一點,我們第一季的結果受到關稅影響約為1.10億至1.20億美元。我們認為已經達到一個穩態水準,並且到今年年底應會維持在相近水準。這就是可預期的情況。我們知道美墨加協定(USMCA)開始被討論,但這可能會花掉整個下半年。我認為在短期內,我們的預測中沒有進一步緩解所帶來的變化。正如你所說,這個數字過去曾高得多,我相信在高峰時大約在1.40億至1.50億美元的區間。我們正在最大化在美國的鋼材生產與製管,以降低這些關稅數字。關於你第二點、加拿大對墨西哥的反傾銷,這確實在上個月初宣布。首先我想說,在加拿大,如同世界上許多重要據點,我們的策略主要是以本地製造與本地採購為主。目前在加拿大,我們OCTG銷售的80%來自本地製造,但我們仍會從全球不同的工廠進口,以補足本地製造。就我看來,這項反傾銷對未來的影響相當有限。我們預期未來在加拿大的供應中,有7%將來自Tamsa,並與該裁定所反映的價格指引一致。

  • This is particular products, specialized products, but that, by the way, are not manufactured by the local petitioners of the case. We believe is, we have ability to continue to serving our customers in Canada with a mainly domestic base, which has been all along our strategies of something -- this is something that we're factoring in our supply. It had an impact on the first quarter, which was $14 million. This is something that we expect not to have later on throughout the year.

    這些是特定產品、專業化產品;順帶一提,這些產品並非由本案的本地申請方(petitioners)所製造。我們相信,我們有能力在加拿大持續服務客戶,並以本地供應為主,這一直是我們的策略——我們也已將此納入供應規劃。它對第一季造成了1,400萬美元的影響。我們預期在今年後續期間不會再有這樣的影響。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that. Perhaps could I switch tones for a second question towards the buyback? I think last quarter I asked Paolo whether the philosophy had changed at all, how you viewed the buyback. Could I ask you the same question in this volatile environment? Does your philosophy in terms of how you implement that, how you size that, does that change at all? Should we look to the AGM next week to hear news on it, please? Thank you.

    好的。謝謝你的說明。第二個問題我想換個方向談談庫藏股(buyback)。我記得上季我問過Paolo,你們對回購的看法、哲學是否有任何改變。在這個波動的環境下,我也想問你同樣的問題:你們在執行方式與規模(size)上,相關的哲學會有改變嗎?我們是否應該期待在下週的股東常會(AGM)聽到相關消息?謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, yeah. Thank you. On that point, as you know, this is a decision that is to be taken by the shareholder meeting first and then by the board. Next week, we will see on May the 12th, the company shareholder meeting will consider, among other topics, the renewal of the authorization of a repurchase of shares. Afterwards, it will be up to the board to decide on that. I cannot offer more color on that at this point.

    是的,謝謝。就這點而言,如你所知,這項決定首先要由股東會通過,之後再由董事會決定。下週,也就是5月12日,公司股東會將在多項議題中,審議是否續期授權公司回購股份。之後將由董事會決定。我目前無法就此提供更多細節。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Okay. Well, thank you very much. Happy to pass it on.

    好的,非常感謝。我願意把時間交給下一位。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Redmond, BNP Paribas.

    Paul Redmond,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。

  • Paul Redman - Analyst

    Paul Redman - Analyst

  • Hi, guys, and thank you very much for your time. Yeah, Gabriel, congratulations on the new role. I just wanted to ask, you've been COO for a number of years. I wanted to ask where you see the greatest opportunities for Tenaris as you step into the role.

    嗨,各位,謝謝你們撥冗。Gabriel,恭喜你擔任新職務。我想請教的是,你擔任營運長(COO)已經好幾年了;當你走入這個角色時,你認為Tenaris最大的機會在哪裡?

  • And then secondly, just on the Middle East, can you provide a bit more detail by country in terms of where you're seeing the greatest issues around logistics costs, delivery to customer? Just a bit more detail than Middle East in general. Thank you.

    第二個問題是關於中東:你能否按國家提供更細的說明,談談你們在哪些國家看到物流成本、交付給客戶方面的問題最嚴重?希望能比「中東整體」再更具體一些。謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yep. Thank you very much for the congrats again. Maybe I start from the second part related to the logistic costs into the Middle East. Clearly, Saudi and UAE, due to this pipeline capacity that we talked before, they have continued their drilling operations. Okay? It has been remarkable that the majority of the rigs have been operating under the challenging conditions that we had in the months of March and April. It has been very important for us to serve them every day with our local manufacturing, our local service centers, and bringing material into these two countries to replenish our inventories and support them. We had zero rig stoppages, we have been able to serve them under this condition as in normal times.

    好的。再次非常感謝你的祝賀。我先從第二部分、關於中東的物流成本談起。很明顯,沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋,因為我們先前談到的管線產能,他們持續進行鑽井作業。好嗎?值得注意的是,在我們於3月與4月面臨的艱困條件下,多數鑽機仍在運作。對我們而言,每天透過本地製造、本地服務中心,以及將材料運入這兩個國家以補充庫存並支援他們,這非常重要。我們沒有任何鑽機停工(rig stoppages),在這些條件下仍能如同平常時期一樣提供服務。

  • This is an important part of the effort, but again, going through logistics outside through Hormuz with longer transit times and higher costs. When you go to the upper part of the Gulf, it's much more difficult to reach, much more costly to reach. In Qatar, which is mainly producing LNG for export, and in Kuwait and Iraq, the capabilities of export alternative routes is much limited. Drilling activity there has reduced much more. There was less of a need for the customers to receive new material, and there was more of a difficulty for us to reach those locations, upper part of the Gulf. This is a way. We will see how this unfolds in the next few weeks, in the next few months.

    這是努力中的重要一環,但同時也必須在荷姆茲海峽(Hormuz)之外進行物流運輸,導致運輸時間更長、成本更高。當你往波斯灣北部走時,抵達難度更高、成本也更高。在卡達(主要生產LNG用於出口)、以及科威特與伊拉克,替代出口路線的能力要有限得多。那裡的鑽井活動下降得更明顯。客戶接收新材料的需求較少,而我們要到達那些地點(波斯灣北部)也更困難。大致就是這樣。我們將觀察未來幾週、幾個月的發展。

  • Our base scenario continues to be that this is a resolution that will come in the short term, and we hope for that. This is what we see today. The majority of the big delays have been in the northern part of the Gulf. While Saudi and UAE, we are finding alternative routes because the material is really needed. The rigs are working. Regarding the first question, maybe you remind me again on the first point.

    我們的基本情境(base scenario)仍然是,這個問題會在短期內獲得解決,我們也希望如此。這就是我們今天看到的情況。大多數重大的延誤都發生在波斯灣北部;而在沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋,因為材料確實需要、鑽機仍在運作,我們正在尋找替代路線。至於第一個問題,你可以再提醒我一下第一點是什麼嗎?

  • Paul Redman - Analyst

    Paul Redman - Analyst

  • It was just as you step into the CEO role, where do you see the greatest opportunities?

    就在您剛接任執行長職務之際,您認為最大的機會在哪裡?

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Opportunities for growth.

    成長的機會。

  • Paul Redman - Analyst

    Paul Redman - Analyst

  • Value. Yeah.

    價值。是的。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, I think there are a lot of opportunities for growth in Tenaris. This situation in the Middle East creates and strengthens the importance of energy security, diversification of supply. So I believe that, as we were saying in the opening remarks, we're going to see actions by customers, increasing drilling in different parts of the world. Guillermo mentioned about the US, but I think this creates and strengthen conditions for growth in Canada. Certainly Venezuela was starting, but makes Venezuela even more interesting into the future. We have Vaca Muerta, which is our world-class play that is also strengthened by the outlook on this situation. And the offshore, which has and will continue to have a steep , we are seeing FIDs being even anticipated due to this condition, so we believe that we are already entering an expansion cycle in the offshore in the deep water, and this is something that we will carry into the balance of 2026, 2027 and 2028. We are seeing projects that are already with FID and schedules, even with two, three-year visibility. I believe that in this different area and parts of the world, Tenaris has a lot of opportunity to increase its business.

    是的。我認為 Tenaris 有很多成長機會。中東的情勢凸顯並強化了能源安全、供應多元化的重要性。因此我相信,正如我們在開場致詞所說,我們將看到客戶採取行動,在全球不同地區增加鑽探。Guillermo 提到了美國,但我認為這也創造並強化了加拿大的成長條件。委內瑞拉原本就開始啟動,但這讓委內瑞拉在未來更具吸引力。我們有 Vaca Muerta,這是我們世界級的油氣區塊,而在此情勢展望下也更被看好。再來是離岸領域,離岸一直並將持續呈現陡峭的成長,我們看到在這些條件下,最終投資決策(FID)甚至被提前,因此我們相信我們已經進入深水離岸的擴張週期,而這將延續到 2026、2027 與 2028 年的其餘期間。我們看到一些專案已經做出 FID 並有排程,甚至有兩到三年的能見度。我相信在這些不同區域與全球各地,Tenaris 有很大的機會擴大其業務。

  • Paul Redman - Analyst

    Paul Redman - Analyst

  • Right. Thank you very much, and best of luck in your new role.

    好的。非常感謝,也祝您在新職務上一切順利。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Franklin, Jefferies.

    Jamie Franklin,Jefferies。

  • Jamie Franklin - Equity Analyst

    Jamie Franklin - Equity Analyst

  • Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. Congratulations, Gabriel, and best wishes to Paolo. Firstly, I just wanted to ask on the international business. Last quarter, you spoke to generally seeing some stability in pricing with balanced demand and supply. Can you just give us a sense of recent price moves in the different regions, given the current geopolitical situation and a kind of best estimate as to how you see that evolving as we move forwards through the year?

    您好,感謝回答我的問題。恭喜 Gabriel,也祝 Paolo 一切順利。首先我想問國際業務。上季您提到在供需平衡下,價格大致呈現穩定。鑑於目前地緣政治情勢,能否請您談談各區域近期的價格變動,以及您對今年接下來走勢的最佳估計?

  • And then secondly, you already partially touched on this, but could you give us an update on how your offshore backlog is shaping up? You previously talked to an expectation of 1H '26 revenues offshore being higher than 2H '25, and that 2H '26 would likely be at least as positive as the first half. Just wondering if you can give us a sense of how things have evolved since your last set of results. Thank you.

    第二點,您剛才已部分提到,但能否更新一下離岸訂單積壓(backlog)的情況?您先前提到預期 2026 年上半年離岸營收會高於 2025 年下半年,且 2026 年下半年可能至少與上半年同樣正面。想請問自上次財報以來,情況有何變化。謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Jamie, thank you for the congrats. On the second point in the offshore, I confirmed what I we said in the previous call. We are even seeing anticipation on some of the backlog of first half into the second half of 2026. Where I'm sitting today, we're seeing an increase in revenue for the offshore in the second half of 2026 versus what we are having in the first half of 2026, in the range of 10%. Okay so, this backlog for offshore is very important and continues to build up and even anticipate a bit. I'm ready to be a bit even more optimistic than I was in the previous call.

    好的,Jamie,謝謝你的祝賀。關於離岸的第二點,我確認我們在上一通電話中所說的內容。我們甚至看到部分原本在 2026 年上半年交付的訂單積壓,提前移到 2026 年下半年。以我今天所掌握的情況來看,我們看到 2026 年下半年離岸營收相較於 2026 年上半年增加,幅度約在 10% 左右。也就是說,離岸的這些訂單積壓非常重要,且持續累積,甚至還有些提前。我可以比上一通電話時更樂觀一些。

  • Regarding pricing in the international market, probably we need to divide Europe from the international markets. In Europe, as you know, CBAM has started since the beginning of this year, and the new safeguard in Europe will be implemented July 1. This is a safeguard that is much more stringent than the previous one. The quotas are going to be reduced by half of what they were, and volumes in excess of the quota that today are paying a tariff of 25% to get it into Europe, this will go to 50%. This will protect and strengthen steel making and steel pipe making in Europe, which I think is positive for Tenaris as we supply our European customer mainly with European production.

    至於國際市場的定價,可能需要把歐洲與其他國際市場分開來看。在歐洲,如你所知,CBAM 已自今年年初開始實施,而歐洲新的防衛措施(safeguard)將於 7 月 1 日上路。這項防衛措施比先前更為嚴格。配額將減半;而超出配額的量,目前進入歐洲需支付 25% 關稅,之後將提高到 50%。這將保護並強化歐洲的鋼鐵製造與鋼管製造,我認為這對 Tenaris 是正面的,因為我們主要以歐洲生產供應歐洲客戶。

  • We see a trend in pricing that already started, and we're seeing in the second quarter of this year and probably continuing, moving upwards in Europe. When we go to the international pricing, as I was saying in the last quarter, there's certain stability between supply and demand. With the situation of the war in the Middle East, there is a pressure on costs. Okay? We believe that this pressure of cost will be translated into the international pricing. The majority of our work in international markets are contracts that have formulas in place from the different components. There's typically a legacy on two to three quarters for this to be seen in the invoicing of pricing. I would believe that in our pricing international business will go accompanying offsetting the increasing cost over time.

    我們看到價格上行的趨勢已經開始,並且在今年第二季已經出現,且可能會持續在歐洲向上。至於國際定價,如我上季所說,供需之間呈現一定的穩定性。隨著中東戰事情勢,成本面承受壓力。我們相信這種成本壓力將反映到國際定價上。我們在國際市場的大部分業務是採用含有不同組成項目公式的合約。通常需要落後兩到三個季度,才會在開票價格上反映出來。我認為我們的國際業務定價,將會隨時間推移,配合並抵銷成本的上升。

  • Jamie Franklin - Equity Analyst

    Jamie Franklin - Equity Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

    (接線員指示)Arun Jayaram,J.P. Morgan Securities LLC。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning, Gabriel and Paolo. Congratulations on your new roles. Great to see, Gabriel. Tenaris mentioned an increased focus on security and the diversification of supply in your release. One of the things that, in an era of more energy security, there's been thoughts that key players in the Middle East, the NOCs, may be focused on having more redundancy in terms of evacuation options via pipelines, so they're less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. I was wondering if you could talk about how Tenaris could be levered to this dynamic. I know there's been news about a Gulf Super Express pipeline that would take flows to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, I just wanted to talk about and see if you could elaborate on this dynamic.

    是的,早安,Gabriel 和 Paolo。恭喜你們的新職務。很高興看到你,Gabriel。Tenaris 在新聞稿中提到,將更聚焦於安全與供應多元化。在更重視能源安全的時代,有一些看法認為中東的關鍵玩家、國家石油公司(NOCs),可能會更著重於在外運選項上增加冗餘,例如透過管線,降低對荷姆茲海峽的依賴。我想請你談談 Tenaris 如何能受惠於這樣的趨勢。我知道有關於「Gulf Super Express」管線的消息,可能把流量輸送到紅海與地中海;我想請你談談並進一步說明這個趨勢。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Arun, for the best wishes. Let me tell you, I think that a similar question came up earlier in the call, but still, I will tell you that this possibility or potential of additional pipeline capacity in Saudi and UAE is something that would look very rational today and a big business opportunity. I was saying before that this will probably take a year or two under a fast track scenario to be built. It's something that we cannot take out of equation. On the contrary, no announcements, media reports. This is something that we don't have anything to comment yet. If that opportunity would materialize, Tenaris with its TenarisGPC larger diameter facility in Jubail, we would be able to take an important part of this pipeline capacity going forward.

    謝謝你,Arun,祝福我們。讓我說明一下,我想類似的問題在稍早的電話會議中也出現過。不過我仍想說,在沙烏地與阿聯增加額外管線輸送能力的可能性或潛力,以今天來看是非常合理的,也是一個很大的商機。我先前提到,在快速推進(fast track)的情境下,建置可能需要一到兩年。這是我們不能排除的因素。相反地,目前沒有任何正式公告,只有媒體報導;對此我們暫時沒有更多評論。如果這個機會成真,Tenaris 透過位於朱拜勒(Jubail)的 TenarisGPC 大口徑工廠,將能在未來承接這些管線產能中的重要份額。

  • This is a facility where we just last year expanded into the second line, and we have an ability even to debottleneck with limited investment to take this capacity even higher. These pipelines would entail hundreds of thousands of tons of demand of tubulars. One way or the other, I believe that Tenaris would be well positioned to capitalize on that, and all the drilling of OCTG that will come behind to make this pipeline capacity full. We'll see. A bit early to tell, but certainly a potential maybe eventually into a 2027 type of scenario.

    這座工廠我們就在去年擴增了第二條產線,而且我們也有能力以有限投資進行去瓶頸(debottleneck),把產能再提高。這些管線將帶來數十萬噸的管材需求。不論如何,我相信 Tenaris 都具備良好條件把握這個機會,以及後續為了填滿這些管線輸送能力而帶動的 OCTG 鑽探需求。我們再觀察。現在說還有點早,但確實可能在 2027 年左右的情境中逐步發生。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Thank you for that. I did join the call because I had another call, apologize on the late question.

    很好。謝謝,謝謝你的說明。我因為還有另一通電話才加入,抱歉問題問得比較晚。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • No worries. Thank you for joining anyway.

    沒關係。無論如何謝謝你加入。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • My follow-up here is you hear your comments on outlook. I know the stock is maybe reacting to the near term impacts in 2Q relative to some of the Middle East impacts. I just want to see if you could clarify your comments on the second half. What we heard is your expectations that second half EBITDA could be close to 1Q, which is in that $735 range, which would be a little bit above the street. Just wondering if you could comment on that.

    我的追問是關於你對展望的評論。我知道股價可能在反映第二季相較之下的短期影響,與一些中東事件的影響有關。我想請你釐清一下你對下半年的看法。我們聽到的是,你預期下半年 EBITDA 可能接近第一季,也就是大約 7.35 億美元的水準,這會略高於市場共識。想請你對此做些評論。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would say that this would be a good estimate. Give and take, it's a bit early. There is a lot of uncertainty. The Strait is not open yet. To be precise in the third and fourth quarter, to be honest, it's kind of challenging. From where we see, and based on this assumption of a relatively short-term resolution of the conflict and the positive dynamics on volume in the offshore in North America and pricing trajectory, I think this is where we are seeing our results heading into the second half.

    是的。我會說這會是一個不錯的估計。上下浮動一些,現在還有點早。不確定性很大。海峽還沒有開放。老實說,要精準預測第三、第四季是有點具挑戰性的。從我們看到的情況來看,並基於衝突能在相對短期內解決、北美離岸業務量的正向動能以及價格走勢的假設,我認為這就是我們看到下半年業績走向的方向。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Guillaume Delaby, Bernstein.

    (接線員指示)Guillaume Delaby,Bernstein。

  • Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

    Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

  • Yes. Good afternoon, and congrats for the new role. One question. Globally, when I look at the structure of the industry in terms of competition, the past four or five years have seen that probably reduced competition for companies like yours. My question is, given the strengthening outlook for the next three to five years, is it reasonable to expect that at some stage, of course it is much too early to worry about, but at some stage you may face increasing competition by the end of the decade, for example, in North America with the recent combination of US Steel and Nippon Steel. Maybe I would like to have your view on the competitive landscape, very, very strong today, likely to remain, but how do you see it evolving over the next three to five years? Thank you very much.

    是的。下午好,也恭喜你擔任新職務。我有一個問題。整體而言,當我看產業競爭結構時,過去四、五年對像你們這樣的公司來說,競爭可能有所減少。我的問題是,鑑於未來三到五年的展望轉強,是否合理預期在某個階段——當然現在談還太早——但在十年末期你們可能會面臨競爭加劇,例如北美近期美國鋼鐵(US Steel)與日本製鐵(Nippon Steel)的結合。想請你談談競爭格局:目前非常、非常強勢,可能仍會維持,但你如何看未來三到五年的演變?非常感謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Guillaume, for the congrats on the new role. I think your question is very important. I would say that it's difficult for me at this position to illustrate if in the next five years, the competitive landscape will improve or deteriorate. I would say that we are competing every day. Tenaris is built on being the best and bringing the best value proposition to our customers in different parts of the world. We are catering those segment customers countries where we can find differentiation, where we can be different, we can be the partner of choice, differentiating on technology, service, local capacity. These are the some of the values that we bring, and we have building on these capabilities over time.

    謝謝你,Guillaume,恭喜我擔任新職務。我認為你的問題非常重要。我會說,以我目前的位置,要說明未來五年競爭格局會改善或惡化是很困難的。我會說,我們每天都在競爭。Tenaris 的核心就是做到最好,並在世界各地為客戶帶來最佳的價值主張。我們服務那些我們能找到差異化的細分市場與國家,在那裡我們可以與眾不同、成為首選合作夥伴,並在技術、服務、本地產能上做出差異化。這些是我們帶來的一些價值,而我們也隨時間持續建立這些能力。

  • I believe that there is a common threat for our industry, that has been steel pipe manufacturing from China. This has been what we consider, in general, in the majority of the international markets, unfairly traded imports. This is a threat that we had that we confronted with the technology, with services, and in certain areas of the world, also with the anti-dumping and protective measures according what the different parts of the world where we operate consider that these were fairly traded imports. Difficult to see how this will progress into the future. We have been and will continue to be in a competitive world.

    我相信,我們產業面臨一個共同的威脅,那就是來自中國的鋼管製造。一般而言,在多數國際市場,我們認為這些屬於不公平貿易的進口。這是我們一直面對的威脅;我們以技術與服務來應對,並且在世界某些地區,也透過反傾銷與保護措施來因應——依據我們營運所在地各地對於這些進口是否屬於公平貿易的認定。很難看出未來會如何發展。我們一直、也將持續處於競爭的世界中。

  • We don't take our customer trust, we don't take our differentiated EBITDA margins for granted, and we work every day to remain competitive and to become the best option. Difficult to project this into the future. This is what we are all focusing every day. We'll see.

    我們不會把客戶的信任視為理所當然,也不會把我們具差異化的 EBITDA 利潤率視為理所當然;我們每天都努力保持競爭力,成為最佳選擇。很難把這投射到未來。我們每天都在專注於此。再看看吧。

  • Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

    Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

  • Thank you very much for this answer. What I like is the humility. I think it has been probably the main characteristic of Tenaris over the past few years. Very happy that it continues. Thank you.

    非常感謝你的回答。我喜歡的是這份謙遜。我認為這可能是 Tenaris 過去幾年最主要的特質。很高興它能延續。謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Guillaume. There is clearly a message of continuity in Tenaris with my new appointment and the support of Paolo. He has been planning this transition for the last three years. As I have the role of COO, we traveled together, we worked together. When I say on a daily basis, it's not a metaphor. It was on a daily basis. I think the part of the message of the new role today is the continuity and the support from Paolo and the 25,000 employees that make Tenaris. That probably is one of the, secrets of the strength of this company.

    謝謝你,Guillaume。隨著我這次的新任命以及 Paolo 的支持,Tenaris 顯然傳達了一個延續性的訊息。他在過去三年一直在規劃這次交接。我擔任 COO 期間,我們一起出差、一起工作。我說每天,這不是比喻,真的是每天。我認為今天新職務訊息的一部分,就是延續性,以及來自 Paolo 與構成 Tenaris 的 25,000 名員工的支持。這大概也是這家公司強大的其中一個「祕密」。

  • Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

    Guillaume Delaby - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. I turn it over.

    非常感謝。我把時間交回。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Redmond, BNP Paribas.

    Paul Redmond,BNP Paribas。

  • Paul Redman - Analyst

    Paul Redman - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thank you very much for a first question. I wanted to touch on Venezuela. There has been a production increase over the past few months. I wanted to ask how involved you are in terms of sales in that market. When you think about Venezuela, where do you think production could go to and the opportunity that makes for Tenaris? Thank you.

    是的。非常感謝,先問第一個問題。我想談談委內瑞拉。過去幾個月產量有所增加。我想請問你們在該市場的銷售參與程度如何。當你們看委內瑞拉時,你認為產量可能提升到什麼程度,以及這對 Tenaris 代表什麼樣的機會?謝謝。

  • Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

    Gabriel Podskubka - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Paul. On Venezuela, we continue to have a favorable outlook after the legal framework that we had in the previous quarter, there have been licenses granted to some of the companies. Some of the companies, even of the majors that are starting to operate, have made some announcement of additional areas. We see things progressing in the right direction, obviously from a small size. Tenaris has never left Venezuela. We have always remained closed and waiting for this opportunity to return. We are mobilizing more resources, and we have plenty of Venezuelan colleagues in different parts of the world, so we are stepping up our presence in the country from the commercial, the technical, and the service sides.

    謝謝你,Paul。關於委內瑞拉,在上一季我們提到的法律框架之後,我們仍然維持正向展望,因為已有一些公司獲得許可。一些公司,甚至包括部分大型石油公司(majors)開始營運,並宣布新增一些區塊。我們看到事情正朝正確方向推進,當然目前規模仍小。Tenaris 從未離開委內瑞拉。我們一直留在當地、保持低調並等待這個回歸的機會。我們正在動員更多資源,而且我們在世界各地都有許多委內瑞拉同事,因此我們正從商務、技術與服務面加強在該國的布局。

  • We will start Rig Direct services in Venezuela, in the Orinoco area starting in July. We are certainly a first mover, and we are the front runner as Venezuela recovers. Today, the business is important. Gave a figure of around $50 million for this 2026. In the last call, I think we are going to be in that range still, and we see rigs going up from the different operators that are early positioning in Venezuela. This will be a country that, for us, it will increase substantially from this level into 2027. We're quite positive about the opportunity in Venezuela.

    我們將於 7 月在委內瑞拉奧里諾科(Orinoco)地區開始提供 Rig Direct 服務。我們確實是先行者,也是委內瑞拉復甦過程中的領先者。就目前而言,這項業務很重要。我們給出的數字是 2026 年約 5,000 萬美元。上一通電話會議我想我們也會仍在這個區間內;我們看到不同營運商在委內瑞拉提前布局,鑽機數量也在上升。對我們而言,這個國家的業務將在 2027 年從目前水準大幅增加。我們對委內瑞拉的機會相當正面。

  • The range of production increase varies and is still a bit uncertain, but with the outlook that we described before of the need of diversifying supply of oil, I think Venezuela becomes even more attractive and important to the global matrix than it was before the conflict. We see that this is going to increase, and Tenaris will be an important part of that.

    產量增加的幅度區間不一,仍有些不確定;但基於我們先前所描述的、需要分散石油供應來源的展望,我認為委內瑞拉在全球供應版圖中的吸引力與重要性,甚至比衝突前更高。我們認為這將會增加,而 Tenaris 也會是其中重要的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our Q&A session, and I will turn the call back to Giovanni Sardagna for closing comments.

    謝謝各位女士、先生。問答環節到此結束,我將把電話交回 Giovanni Sardagna 作結語。

  • Giovanni Sardagna - President, United States

    Giovanni Sardagna - President, United States

  • Thank you, Carmen, and well, thank you all of you for joining us during the call. Thanks.

    謝謝你,Carmen,也謝謝各位在電話會議期間加入我們。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

    本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與,現在可以斷線。