Tenaris SA (TS) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter 2026 Tenaris SA earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. It is my pleasure to turn the call to Giovanni Sardagna. Please go ahead.

Well, welcome to Tenaris 2026 third-quarter conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call. With me on the call today are Gabriel Podskubka, our CEO Carlos Gomez Alzaga, our Chief Financial Officer and Guillermo Moreno, President of our US operations.

Before passing over the call to Gabriel for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our third-quarter sales reached $3.1 billion, up 4% year-on-year and 5% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher demand in North America and an increase in shipment to customer in the Middle East.

Average selling prices in our tubes operating segment, excluding services performed on third-party pipes, increased 4% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year and 2% sequentially. Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 16% sequentially to $756 million with our EBITDA margin for the quarter at 24%.

Our EBITDA margin recovered sequentially, reflecting a favorable product mix, efficient industrial performance as well as the postponement of maintenance programs at some of our facilities. Despite higher raw material, energy and logistic costs.

With operating cash flow of $366 million, which included an increasing of $270 million in working capital and capital expenditure of $98 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was [$268 million](corrected by company after the call) and our net cash position increased to $3.8 billion at the end of the quarter. Now, I will ask Gabriel to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

Thank you, Giovanni, and I would like to extend a warm welcome to all of you participating in our call today. Our third quarter results were better than we had expected and reflect a favorable product mix and an efficient industrial performance.

We also managed to complete some delayed shipments in the Gulf that we had not anticipated and rescheduled the maintenance of some facilities until next year. Although the conflict and the disruption in the Middle East continues, oil has begun to flow through the strait and regional producers are looking to move forward with their projects.

In Saudi Arabia, drilling activity increased during the quarter, resulting in more call-offs under our long-term agreement. And we secured a fast-track order for a link to the east-west pipeline. Aramco is also realizing significant efficiencies in its Jafurah operations, which will allow it to operate at a lower rig count without reducing pipe consumption.

At the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi earlier this week, we presented a next-generation premium connection design. To meet the performance of requirements of increasingly complex operating conditions in ultra-deep water, high pressure and extended rich wells. ADNOC has begun drilling wells with extended laterals of 13,000 meters and wants to increase those lengths.

The TenarisHydril WhiteTM connection is designed to make such objectives possible as it harnesses all our experience and technology in premium connection, design and manufacturing. Customers continue to advance investments to meet the need for enhanced energy security and diversification of supply.

Tenaris is particularly well positioned in this context as unconventional drilling activity increases in the America and offshore project sanctioning rises around the world. In the United States higher drilling activity and higher production costs are resulting in higher OCTG prices as inventories are drawn down. We continue to increase production in our integrated domestic system as we work to satisfy customer demand.

It is 20 years since we began to produce OCTG in the US. Since then, we have built the largest domestic production system and been an integral player in the transformation of the US market. Our ambition does not stop here, and we will continue to build our position in this pivotal market.

The development of Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina continues at pace held by the government's RIGI investment program. A total of $43 billion in energy investments have already been authorized under the program, and a further $100 billion investments are pending approval. Production and activity are increasing and infrastructure is being built.

As our sales of OCTG and fractured in services increase, we have been awarded the supply for two new pipeline projects for the delivery in the first half of next year. As Venezuela seeks to revive its oil industry with their new hardware carbons framework, Chevron and other major oil companies are committing to long-term agreements.

We have been awarded a long-term contract to supply OCTG, with redirect services for Chevron's operations and to supply pipe also with RigDirect services to ENI for their initial '20, well program. We have commented before on our backlog of offshore pipelines and our strong positioning in offshore projects more generally.

During the third quarter, we have been delivering both seamless and welded pipes for the Sakarya project in Turkey, and we anticipate that our deliveries for offshore pipelines will increase in the fourth quarter and into 2027 as developments in the Mediterranean and Suriname move forward.

Last week, we participated in the formal ceremony in Cyprus for the launch of the Cronos project. We received award from ENI for the supply of OCTG and pipes and coating for this offshore pipeline. The project is being developed with a fast-track approach, making use of existing regional infrastructure with first gas expected in the first half of 2028.

In Europe, we received unconditional clearance from the European Union competition authorities for the acquisition of Artrom. This transaction would mark a significant expansion of our position in the European market for industrial pipes as well as our industrial presence in Romania.

As we gear up for a further increase in sales in the coming quarters, our industrial system all over the world is working efficiently. This is an exciting time for Tenaris as we respond to the challenges of meeting the increasingly demand requirements of our customers in a context of geopolitical volatility and supply chain disruption.

Our constant focus on improving the service we provide to our customers, developing new products for increasingly complex operational conditions and investing to achieve industrial excellence throughout our global industrial system position us uniquely to meet the challenges ahead. And now we are opening the room for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

Thank you very much. Impressive margins here in the third quarter, and it sounds like you're expecting further improvement in 4Q. I'd be curious if we could unpack that a little bit, maybe how much volume. Would you anticipate any comments on how mix should affect your average price and then just how to think about the margin that you're able to achieve in 4Q?

Good morning, Marc. Indeed, it was a very good quarter, I think, for congratulations to all the Tenaris team that were able to produce a good performance in the third quarter. Going into the fourth quarter, we expect a further step in revenues, I would say close to 10% is what we see today. That would be mostly volume as we increase sales in the majority of our markets.

We are having a mix effect that is limiting the price increase in the fourth quarter. On one hand, we have a positive pricing dynamic. On our seamless tubulars, but at the same time in the fourth quarter, in particular, we're having an increase of welded large pipelines that contribute to the overall revenues but has an average price that is lower than the seamless, so at the end, partially offset this price increase that we see on the seamless side. So, this is what we see for the top-line.

Then on margins, I believe that we're going to be around 25% with new conditions, given the increase in the topline and an improvement related to absorption of the new volumes.

Okay. That's very helpful. And I'm not going to ask you to guide to first quarter, but just as we think about the press release made the comment of the baseline for thinking about beyond into '27, I believe. It sounds like by stating that the baseline, there's nothing unusual in there that maybe goes away as we progress into '27.

So maybe you could address that, but also, it sounds like you're continuing to have some overhang from the Middle East disruption. Maybe you could refresh us on how much that is. And then this maintenance that was deferred, it sounds like that's deferred into '27. How should we think about how that affects anything? Is that just going to show up normally in third quarter or would it be at another time?

Yes, indeed, it's a bit early to give a precise guideline on the first quarter of '27. There are a lot of moving parts, as you know and we are certainly operating at an uncertain and volatile geopolitical environment. But still, within this, we believe that revenues in the first quarter of '27, will be higher.

We still have on the pricing in the US, the Pipe Logix we still have a few points still that we are uncertain what will happen, so this will be also part of the contribution and uncertainty in first quarter of '27. But we see another step in volume in first quarter, given some of the backlog that we already have in some of the markets that have a long lead time, like offshore or Middle East.

So we are pretty confident that there's going to be an uptick and a further step of growth in first quarter, but there are still a lot of moving parts. Going back to your point on Middle East, I think we got a partial resumption of delivery of a pipe to the upper part of the Gulf that for the previous two quarters were pretty much very contained. Some of our customers in the north part of the Gulf are starting to increase the activity. They found way through this ship-to-ship methodology to bring some crude out of the strait.

So this is increasing partially already happening in the third quarter of '26. And will probably continue in the fourth quarter of '26, at -- I would say, contained level compared to what the backlog and what the traditional business has been but starts to resume as well.

So we'll start also from that point of view having a nice contribution from that part of the Middle East. But I will leave it at this point there without more precision given the uncertainty that we have around.

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan Securities.

I just wanted to follow-up on Marc's question, if maybe you could elaborate on how the recovery in the Middle East could shape up. And does your fourth quarter outlook, which as soon as 10% revenue growth, 25% margins, does that include. A full recovery in the Middle East. I'm just trying to understand of how the recovery could kind of play out and what you're assuming as we think about the fourth quarter.

In terms of Middle East, I think the fourth quarter and the first quarter of '27, will be pretty much similar to what we did in Q3. We are still not factoring in a full recovery in our shipments to Middle East. I was mentioning before to Marc on the partial resumption of oil-related demand in Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, shipments are not recovering fully.

We are still going through the alternative logistics, so there is still some difficulty to get material to this part of the Gulf. And certainly, the demand of OCTG associated with the LNG in Qatar is something that is not. Recover and we're not shipping those pipes as of today.

When we go to the rest of the Middle East, we see Saudi and the Emirates that continue to be very resilient in a very tough environment. Their drilling activity continues pretty much in line with how they started the year even before the conflict.

And we have, through alternative routes, being able with the local manufacturing and imported material to complement and service the rigs in their area. So I would say this has been resilient all along and continue to be and we don't expect any major increase or decrease in the near future.

So I would say a partial recovery of the Middle East, similar in the next two quarters. Then we will see how situation evolves. There is always an upside if fully the recovery of the whole part of the Gulf opens up. This is not something that we are factoring in our base scenarios.

Understood. That's very helpful. My follow-up is, obviously, we get a lot of transparency on the US Market between Pipe Logix and obviously we have a lot of activity measures like the rig count. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing internationally as we start thinking about the 2027 outlook, perhaps you could maybe elaborate on how you expect things to trend in LATAM, Venezuela, Argentina, as well as Mexico, which are historically been important markets for Tenaris and offshore.

That would be just helpful just to give us a little bit of color on how things could trend outside of North America.

Okay, a lot of color in a lot of the moving parts. I will start with Middle East, we explained. Argentina, I think the environment is quite positive. I think on all the announcement that we commented on the RIGI, we see that translating gradually into increasing activity. Today, we have in Vaca Muerta, for example, 42 rigs operating.

That number was probably 32 a year ago and we are going into mid-27 we have a projection of 48 rigs operating in Vaca Muerta, so this will translate into more demand of OCTG. We are also, as you know participating in the fracking business in Argentina. We have our third equipment starting in early 2027. So we will certainly participate in the growth of Argentina and clearly this is not --- this is not the end. There is a VMOS pipeline that is going to be put into operation in 2027, and this will unbottleneck pipeline capacity, which will allow for further increase of drilling even beyond these numbers that I'm giving. So I think we are quite positive on Argentina as an engine of growth for 2027.

Offshore, we see the strong and resilient, all discussions with our majors with our customers that are leading the space in deepwater are increasing activity and they are quite advanced on sanctioning of new projects, some might happen even before the end of the year or in 2027. So this is a space that will have been strong and will continue to be strong.

You mentioned Venezuela. I think Venezuela is another area that from a low starting point, we're closing the year if -- with probably around $60 million of revenues in 2026, and this is something that we expect to continue growing into 2027. We are the leading player there. Today, we have five rigs operating in the country. Our number for next year will probably be around 17, 18. So clearly, from a very low point, there is a very important growth in that part of the world. We see how this unfolds.

So I would say that on the key market of Tenaris, we expect positive improvement. We will be seeing how the price of oil and the uncertainty of the geopolitical plays out for the whole 2027. And Canada is another area where we are always seeing that is a very important market for Tenaris, Rig Count Canada, year-on-year is already 15% above, is a market that is also going to contribute as well.

So I would say I see a lot of positive moving piece into the we'll see how this plays out.

Isacco Brambilla, MedioBanca.

Thanks for taking my questions. I will start from a follow-up on North America, just asking how much of volumes acceleration we saw in Q3 should be attributed to North America and if you can give us a sense of the contribution to the 12% quarter-on-quarter growth for the region from volumes and prices?

Very good, Isacco. On North America, clearly, a major component of that segment is the US. So we have Guillermo today to give you a bit more color on the dynamic on volumes and pricing in the US. And then I will complement with the rest. Guillermo, please.

In the case of the US, since the beginning of the complex, we have seen an important activity increase and demand of OTCG of around 15% and our sales have been growing in line with this and we expect some additional growth in the current quarter.

On top of that, and as you said sorry, as Arun said, prices are very well reflected by PipeLogix and the formulas of our contract. PipeLogix increased in Q3 around 8% to 9% and in October, an additional 6%, this is going to be reflected in our revenues of Q4 and Q1 of 2027.

So, we are seeing a solid demand. We think that moving forward, it's going to be kind of flattish compared to where we are today, maybe some upside potential in oil, but compensated by some short-term downside potential in gas due to the low price of the Henry Hub and this is what we are seeing mainly for the US.

Just to complement on North America, we also saw part of the 12% that you were referring to of the increase of the third quarter in North America was also related to Canada and Mexico as well. In Canada, we commented before, we have a growing trend on volumes and also pricing. And also in Mexico, we're seeing a gradual recovery of drilling activity. With Pemex and some of the other projects that are being led by independent as well, so we see also a gradual increase that we saw in Q3 contributing, so I would say US, Canada and Mexico contributed to the growth in that quarter.

Okay, thanks a lot. Second question is on more generally speaking margin outlook for 2027 and the main building blocks, for sure it is still early to give a precise guidance, but directionally how should we think about the balance between price increase, benefits from operating scale and rising pressure on the other end in terms of input and logistics costs looking forward to next year?

Yes, this is an important point, difficult to be precise, but clearly with the things that we explained on the positive environment, given the importance of energy security, I think the whole situation in the Middle East is creating incentives in the different spaces in the world where Tenaris is very well positioned from the unconventional, to the deepwater, to the other segments that we commented.

We believe that there is a clear need to develop oil and gas resources and capitalize on the need of a growing energy world. So I believe that the conditions are set for a growing '27. Pricing trends in general, Guillermo spoke about this, but I think the market is quite tight in the US, so we'll see how this plays out, but demand and cost pressures are moving pricing upwards.

In the international space, pricing are quite balanced, I would say today at healthy levels. On one hand, we have a higher demand for offshore. On the other hand, we have part of the Middle East that is subdued, so we will see how this plays out. But overall, we are having stability.

And also in Europe, that for us is an important market. And we announced the target acquisition of Artrom. I think we have a contribution, a positive contribution in Europe where we have an important presence in the mechanical and industrial segment. Artrom will contribute and practically double our market share in this space.

So we see stable demand, we see a safeguard in Europe being implemented with the reduction of imports from China and other importers. So we see some pockets of further growth to increase gradually volumes over time and strengthen in pricing as well. We will see and that will certainly give us a further advantage on absorption of cost as we increase the scale of our operations.

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

So just going back to the Middle East, you talked about the link to the East-West pipeline order. Can you just talk to the magnitude of that order? And then maybe more broadly, how are you thinking about the broader opportunity for pipeline expansions as countries focus on supply diversification? And can you talk about how Tenaris is positioned to potentially participate in supplying some of those future projects? Thank you.

Yes, indeed. Especially the Emirates and Saudi are working to develop alternative routes to the strait. They are working to also to connect some of the new fields that they are bringing on stream. So both countries are working on the possibility of increasing the infrastructure to make their delivery more resilient.

This is something that we are participating, especially in Saudi. We have GPC mill located in Jubail in Saudi Arabia that is specifically targeted towards these large infrastructure projects, both in oil and in gas, and we have in our portfolio already in the backlog projects related to the expansion of oil in some of the Zuluf and Safaniya projects.

We are also contributing to this connection, as you were mentioning before, on some of the main pipeline. We are concluding the delivery of the CCUS pipeline as well. So even independently of the conflict, there is a need of connecting infrastructure for export and infrastructure for gas. We are working now in what would be the Master Gas Phase 4 that is connecting the gas of Jafurah with the different parts of Saudi Arabia as well.

So I think we are well positioned to capitalize and we have been already capitalizing on our local position manufacturing of these pipelines in Saudi. In the US, we also have a coating facility in Ras Al Khaimah that is particularly contributing to the pipeline infrastructure there as well. So this is something that also supports our business in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. And we see an effort in this case of the Emirates of constructing a second pipeline to Fujairah to help evacuate oil out of the straight. So we see this as an active activity that gives pipeline opportunity for us but also makes very resilient the drilling where we participate in the OCTG as we are leading players both in the Emirates and Saudi. So I think this constructive for Tenaris going forward.

Great. That's helpful. Thank you. And then I just wanted to check in on shareholder returns. And just given that cash continued to build during the quarter, operations are strengthening, can you talk to how you're thinking about the potential for future dividends subject to Board approval, of course? And then as part of that, any thoughts on potentially changing to a different dividend cadence such as quarterly relative to the current one-third, two-third structure?

Unfortunately, there again, I cannot give you a clear answer. I think this is something that will be a decision of the board. I think in February, not so far away. So I think we'll need to wait until then if we have a definition. But clearly, there is an improvement of outlook. And as you said, the company is creating a good cash generation.

So I think this is something that will be considered given the opportunities that we have in the market and always having in the top priority of the company shareholder returns. But I cannot be more precise than that. So we'll wait until February for that.

Sounds good. Thank you for the time.

Yulia Bocharnikova, Goldman Sachs.

I just wanted to follow-up on US pricing. How sustainable do you view this current level of prices? Do you think there are more tailwinds and more price increases we could potentially see? Or there are potentially imports that could come at these levels or market is still very well protected with all the recently introduced import duties?

And maybe just how much of that price increase is being offset by higher raw material prices or most of that is translated into your earnings and EBITDA over time?

Very good, Julia, very relevant point. On the first point, I think it's quite sustainable, the increase that we're seeing of pricing in the US. But probably Guillermo can give you a bit more color on what are the drivers. And the sustainability and what we expect for the following months in terms of pricing trends in the US?

Yes, since the beginning of this year, we have seen prices in the US going up. It increased around 27% up to October. And as I said before, we think that there is room for some additional increases, mainly these increases have been driven by, number one, increase of activity of our clients and the demand for OCTG.

Second, by the increase of cost, particularly raw materials, steel cost and logistic cost. And regarding sustainability, well, we think that with this current level of demand, the level of inventories of OCTG on the ground that are below standard levels, the continued increase of some costs, particularly hot rolled coils here in the US.

And new anti-dumping margins defined by the Department of Commerce for the main imports in the US give us this view of that at least in the short-term prices are filled with some upside to go further.

Thank you, Guillermo. On the point of cost impact, and I think it's a relevant point, Yulia, as well, because during the last few quarters, we have been impacted by higher raw material costs, scrap, ferroalloys, hot rolled coils, energy.

So I think during the last few quarters, and this probably will continue into next quarter, we have been absorbing higher raw materials. I will ask Carlos to give a bit of a flavor of how these costs are impacting all along our P&L over time.

Yes, as we mentioned in the last quarter, we are seeing the increase in the price of our raw materials hitting our costs, through the different layers as they flow. And in this fourth quarter, we're going to be seeing an increase in cost as the price of scrap and this has stabilized, but now because of the FIFO effect, we see an increase in this quarter, which is fairly similar to the last quarter.

And in the case of scrap and ferroalloys, they will level out in the first half of '27, and we will continue to see some residual effect of the energy in Europe and of HRC because of the way our contract with the supplier is structured, the current levels of the CRU price, we're going to be seeing that pulling around the second quarter of next year.

So this is the part that enters the latest HRC. And then we certainly with the situation of gas in Europe, energy in Europe is a point of attention, so we're working also on pricing with our customers in Europe to offset this latest increase.

Very helpful. Thank you. Could I just follow-up on the exposure to Pipe Logix pricing in your contracts in Latin America, like Mexico and Argentina? Should we also model this price increases in the Pipe Logix having positive impacts on your realized pricing in the region?

Yes, indeed some of our, especially our contracts in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia to some extent, I think part of America, Pipe Logix is always a reference, is a market of a very dynamic and competitive market, so has been traditionally being the reference. The formulas are different in each of the contracts, each of the countries and customers, so there's not a directly --- In many of the cases, there are factors, other cost factors that are and there is certainly some delays, sometimes over one or two months, sometimes over a quarter. But somehow, I think Pipe Logix is a good indication of the pricing trends, not only in the US, but south of the US. And even in Canada is also a sort of a reference.

So I think this is something that not fully but has certainly an impact and has been and will continue to be reference for this market.

Very clear. Thank you.

Matt Smith, Bank of America.

Hi there, good morning, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple. Forgive me for revisiting topics already being discussed to a certain extent. The first one was around distributions, and hopefully this is sufficiently philosophical.

I think in the past, you've aimed to grow your dividend per share overtime. I guess now you're starting from a much higher bar given that the buyback has effectively been converted into a dividend. So I just wanted to ask philosophically, you have an awful lot of cash on the balance sheet, current trading is extremely strong.

How do you balance that assessment of growing the dividend in the near term versus wanting a long-term trajectory of growth? And within that consideration, would you think about special dividends as a way to answer that conundrum?

Thank you, Matt, for the question. As I was commenting before, I don't have much color to add on this specific point. It's something that is a decision of the Board. So I think we are only four months away of February. I think I will invite you maybe to repeat the question back then, and hopefully we'll more significant information on this point so far, I would say that this is still an open point.

Understood. Fair enough. And then I wanted to come back to your comments around 4Q setting the baseline into 2027. I think given what I can observe and the comments that have been made on the call, it looks as though early '27, let's say, particularly because that's what we have more visibility on, it's likely to see sequential improvements versus 4Q, at least as it relates to margins.

I'm thinking about the lagged effect of US pricing, particularly if we have further increases in US pricing and positive mix effects from offshore shipments. So for me, I sort of struggle to see your EBITDA margins lower than 25% as I look into '27. Is that a fair assessment or would you add any color there?

That's a very fair assessment. Matt, I follow every part of your logic and I think it's quite sound. So I would agree with all the points that you pointed out. So we're seeing exactly the same in this moving part, but. I think your conclusion is a very fair assumption of what we're seeing today. We'll see how, as you said, the moving parts move until then.

Okay. Well, I think we've covered a lot of rounds, so happy to pass it on. Thank you, guys.

Guillaume Delaby, Bernstein.

I have two, if I may. The first one is regarding international pricing. Should we factor in some kind of increase in international pricing starting maybe H2 2027? So I would like to have your view on that. And maybe if we take, I would say maybe a longer and broader approach, if we try to project ourselves beyond 2027, when you are looking in your crystal ball, how would you characterize the cycle? Is it fair? Would you see this current North American upcycle as maybe a one-year cycle? And could it be also, I would say, should we assume that the international/offshore cycle could be a three to four years cycle? So what is your approach or perceptions of this next to come US cycle and probably this longer-term offshore cycle?

Yeah, Guillaume, thank you for your questions. On the first point, I think international pricing, as I was saying today, is quite stable in average given the balance of supply and demand. But I think this is I would say a temporary condition until the demand of Middle East gets fully resumed.

Because I believe that in our international pricings that are related to long-term agreements, in these cases, we have a formula where many of the raw materials that we talked about before are also factored in those. So over time and with the probably higher inertia of the contents that we have in the US, for example, typically six to nine months inertia, we will see pricing over long-term agreements in the international space moving along to reflect and absorb the cost increases. These are the long-term agreements. In the spot price, there is a moment spot moves up and down, there is certain opportunities, and today we're part of the demand of Middle East missing. I don't see the price of international in the short-term going up.

But as offshore demand kicks in, and this is something that we're seeing and relates also to your second point, I expect that gradually pricing of the international markets will increase also in the Spot segment. So I would see a gradual but steady growth of international pricing, especially probably in the second half of '27, and going forward. But I see strength given the demand of the premium products where we are in the, I would say, a tier 1 environment of differentiated products. Clearly, I'm talking about the segments where we are targeting and participating.

On your second point on the crystal ball, I wish I had it, Guillem, but what I see is that some of the dynamics. That you were referring to and some of the segments that we're following, I'm quite confident to believe that we are talking about a multi-year cycle, and this is the case of the offshore and the deep water.

I believe that the sanctioning of projects that we are seeing and will continue to see next year, these are decisions that these projects are not stopped or scaled down when there are variations of price of all these projects typically go ahead in any environment and scenario. And we believe that the projects that are today are even being sanctioned at breakevens of $40 per barrel.

I mean, I think the majors are not sanctioning these projects on the price level that we see today, but under much more stringent conditions. So I think this project and this trend of offshore is a space that will continue. Almost in any scenario for multi-year.

Then the other part of the spectrum that we have the unconventionals, we mentioned US, Canada, Argentina, there is probably a portion of that demand that could go in a few months up or down depending on market conditions.

So I think from that point of view, especially the part related to oil. Then related to gas, maybe some LNG projects in the US LNG projects, it just has an expansion of LNG announced in Canada. We are all waiting for almost an imminent LNG sanctioning project in Argentina.

So I think the demand associated with the LNG is something that will also be a multi-year cycle. So there are pieces that are a bit more long-term and more reassurant, others that are being more, I would say, subject to the variability of the oil price in the more of a shorter-term dynamic. So this is something that we'll continue to follow.

Thank you very much, Gabriel. Very comprehensive.

Jamie Franklin, Jefferies.

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. So just two, firstly, obviously, the strong margin improvement this quarter, you spoke to the favorable product mix and the efficient industrial performance. There's also a comment in the press release on postponement of maintenance. I just want to get a sense of what that maintenance involves when you expect to complete it and any sense of kind of magnitude of volume impact that that might have.

And then secondly. On the topic of US tariffs, I believe you previously said you had reduced the cost impact down to $110 to $120 in the first quarter of this year. Is that the sort of level you were impacted by at 3Q or were you further able to reduce that at all?

On your first point, indeed, we reevaluated the need of a maintenance shutdown in a couple of our mills in North America. We proceeded with the maintenance interventions in Europe as planned during the summer, but a couple of those were postponed into first half of 2027.

We did a reevaluation of the technical need of these facilities if this could be done at the moment of plan or could be postponed around a few months given the environment of high demand that we have and where we took the decision to postpone. So this is something that will come into the first half of 2027, given the period of high demand. And the impact on cost, if you want, maybe Carlos can help me on see how this is factored into our financials.

Well, the level in respect for the 4Q is very similar to the one that impacted our P&L in the 3Q, and we are seeing an increase in the first half of around 15% of what we had during this quarter. In terms of the impact in volume, we do not foresee an impact in volume because what we do is we increase the stock, the level of stock. And we saw this during this quarter, and we will see that in this quarter as well to prepare for this extraordinary maintenance.

Thank you, Carlos. Jamie, on your second point related to the tariffs, given the increase of demand in the US, I think probably the number that you had, $120 million, today is higher than that. We are probably flying at the level of $140 million, $150 million per quarter of tariffs. This is what is probably representing the reality of today given the increased volume in the US.

This will probably be seen even the FIFO system is something that would probably fully be seen in the first half of '27, as you know that this gets into the inventories and then in the cost of goods sold as it's being sold over time.

Emanuele Gallazzi, Equita.

I have two follow-ups. The first one is on the cost side and basically on the logistics. I was wondering if you are starting to see any sign of normalization on the logistic cost and how do you see the logistic cost evolving in 2027? And the second one is on the capital allocation. How should we think about CapEx in 2027? Any specific needs to increase CapEx for the coming year?

Thank you very much. On I think a relevant point on the logistics, this is something unfortunately that is not we are not having a relief, but I will ask Carlos to give a bit more color on the impact on the logistics in Middle East and in general. In our costs? And also, he can follow-up as well on our guidance of CapEx over the year.

Yes, in terms of the impact on our SG&A of the increased cost logistics, what we're seeing for the fourth Q is to have a very similar level on a per ton basis as we did in the Q3 of the variable component of our SG&A. And we are starting to see some relief in Q1 and then more so in Q2 of next year as things start to hopefully normalize over there.

In terms of capital expenditure, this quarter was particularly low, expect to increase the execution during the last quarter of the year and yes, for the. For 2027, we expect to fly at a level, which will be more in line with the fourth quarter of this year. We are talking about around $600 million for 2027.

Got it.

Mark Bianchi, TD Cowen.

Thanks for taking another question. Just related to the CapEx for '27, it looks like based on your guidance here for volumes, you'll be over sort of 1 million tons a quarter, 4 million a year. What's the capability for Tenaris to satisfy that? And at what point do you think you need to invest more heavily for capacity expansion?

I believe that first, we're investing in capital, also we're investing working capital because we are also part of the usage of cash is also will support the increase in volumes that we're seeing. As a matter of fact, I think in this quarter that we just closed, we had a working capital variation of $270 million.

And I think we are even seeing a value that is similar or even slightly higher for the fourth quarter as we are building the inventories to fulfill this increase on demand. Going back to CapEx, I think we launched increasing capacity master plan program for Canada of $230 million. This was announced a few months ago. So I think strengthening our Canadian and North America footprint is important and we're going to launch that.

We're doing the acquisition of Artrom, which is also an additional increase in capacity steelmaking and rolling mill in Europe. We have also an ongoing capital expenditure program in the north of the US to strengthening our rolling mill and steelmaking there. So I think as we see the need and opportunities to strengthen our capacity, capabilities, debottlenecking, this is something that is a high priority.

In our agenda, so we'll continue to support with our strong cash flow also into what has been a tradition of analysis, strengthening our industrial system, preparing it for growth.

Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.

And this will conclude our Q&A session. I will turn it back to Giovanni Sardagna for closing comments.

Well, thank you, Carmen, and well, thank you all for joining us. Sorry again for the technical issue we had earlier today in joining this call. Thanks.

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