Tenaris SA (TS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth-quarter Tenaris S.A. earnings conference call.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加泰納瑞斯公司第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄影。現在我謹將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係官喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris 2025 fourth quarter and annual results conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information during the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during the call.

謝謝Gigi，歡迎參加Tenaris 2025年第四季及年度業績電話會議。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，我們將在電話會議中討論前瞻性訊息，而我們的實際結果可能與電話會議中表達或暗示的結果有所不同。

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Carlos Gómez Álzaga, our Chief Financial Officer; Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer; and Guillermo Moreno, President of our US Operations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：我們的董事長兼執行長 Paolo Rocca；我們的財務長 Carlos Gómez Ölzaga；我們的營運長 Gabriel Podskubka；以及我們的美國業務總裁 Guillermo Moreno。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.

在將電話交給保羅做開場白之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們的季度業績。

During the fourth quarter of 2025, sales reached $3 billion, up 5% compared with those of the corresponding quarter of the previous year and 1% sequentially as our sales to Rig Direct® customers in the United States and Canada continued to show resilience and in Argentina, we resumed our fracking and coil tubing services. Our EBITDA for the quarter was down 5% sequentially to $717 million or 24% of sales. These results include the full impact of the 50% Section 232 tariffs in the US.

2025 年第四季度，銷售額達到 30 億美元，比上年同期增長 5%，環比增長 1%，這主要得益於我們在美國和加拿大的 Rig Direct® 客戶的銷售額持續保持韌性，以及我們在阿根廷恢復了水力壓裂和連續油管服務。本季我們的 EBITDA 環比下降 5% 至 7.17 億美元，佔銷售額的 24%。這些結果包含了美國 50% 的第 232 條款關稅的全部影響。

Average selling prices in our Tube operating segment decreased by 1% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year and were flat sequentially.

與去年同期相比，我們管材業務部門的平均售價下降了 1%，環比持平。

During the quarter, cash flow from operations was $787 million. Our net cash position at the end of the quarter decreased to $3.3 billion, following the payment of an interim dividend of $300 million in November last year, $537 million spent on share buybacks, and capital expenditure of $123 million during the quarter.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量為 7.87 億美元。截至本季末，我們的淨現金部位減少至 33 億美元，其中包括去年 11 月支付的 3 億美元中期股利、用於股票回購的 5.37 億美元以及本季 1.23 億美元的資本支出。

The Board of Directors have decided to propose for the approval of the general -- Annual General Shareholders' Meeting to be held at the beginning of May, the payment of an annual dividend of $0.89 per share or $1.78 per ADR, which includes the interim dividend of $0.29 per share or $0.58 per ADR that we paid at the end of November of last year.

董事會已決定提議在 5 月初舉行的年度股東大會上批准派發每股 0.89 美元或每份 ADR 1.78 美元的年度股息，其中包括我們在去年 11 月底派發的每股 0.29 美元或每份 ADR 0.58 美元的中期股息。

If approved, a dividend of $0.60 per share or $1.20 per ADR will be paid on May 20, up 7% compared to the dividend per share of the corresponding period of the previous year. Thanks to the benefit of our buyback program.

如果獲得批准，將於 5 月 20 日派發每股 0.60 美元或每份 ADR 1.20 美元的股息，比去年同期每股股息增長 7%。感謝我們的回購計劃。

Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

現在，在正式開始提問環節之前，我請保羅先說幾句。

Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you.

謝謝你，喬瓦尼，各位早安。

2025 was a year in which Tenaris demonstrated the resilience of its operation in the face of a disruptive geopolitical environment and lower activity in key markets. Thanks to our extensive geographical presence, the depth of the service we offer to our customers and the commitment of our employees, we were able to respond rapidly to the various situations we faced.

2025 年，泰納瑞斯在動盪的地緣政治環境和主要市場活動減少的情況下，展現了其營運的韌性。憑藉我們廣泛的地域覆蓋、為客戶提供的深度服務以及員工的敬業精神，我們能夠迅速應對我們所面臨的各種情況。

Our results remained remarkably stable through the year, which we completed with an EBITDA of $2.9 billion and a net income of $2 billion on net sales of $12 billion. Free cash flow amounted to $2 billion, all of which were distributed to shareholders through dividend and share buybacks. We are proposing a further increase of the annual dividend per share of 7% over that for the previous year. At the same time, we maintained a net cash position of $3.3 billion.

全年業績保持了顯著的穩定性，最終實現 EBITDA 29 億美元，淨利潤 20 億美元，淨銷售額 120 億美元。自由現金流達 20 億美元，全部透過股息和股票回購分配給了股東。我們提議將年度每股股息在上一年的基礎上再提高 7%。同時，我們維持了33億美元的淨現金部位。

In the US and Canada, the year was marked by further oil and gas industry consolidation and productivity improvement. A lower rig count and the extension of Section 232 tariff to the import of all steel products, including the steel bars we require for our seamless pipe operation in Bay City , and their subsequent increase to 50%.

在美國和加拿大，這一年石油和天然氣產業進一步整合，生產力也提高。鑽井平台數量減少，以及第 232 條款關稅擴大到所有鋼鐵產品的進口，包括我們在貝城無縫鋼管作業所需的鋼筋，隨後關稅提高到 50%。

In this environment, Tenaris raised the performance of its US production and supply chain system, with its Koppel steel shop main pipe production plants at Bay City, Hickman, and Ambridge and various pipe processing facilities acting in concert to achieve a record level of production and supply 90% of our US sales. In both the US and Canada, we strengthened our market position and extended the differentiation we offer under our Rig Direct® service model.

在這種環境下，泰納瑞斯提高了其美國生產和供應鏈系統的性能，其位於貝城、希克曼和安布里奇的科佩爾鋼鐵廠主要管道生產廠以及各種管道加工廠協同運作，實現了創紀錄的生產水平，並供應了我們美國銷售額的 90%。在美國和加拿大，我們鞏固了市場地位，並擴大了我們在 Rig Direct® 服務模式下提供的差異化優勢。

As customers targeted operational efficiency, we continue to develop and roll out our RunReady™ and well integrity services that support them by increasing safety and reliability at the wells. Major oil and gas companies are seeking new production reserves to meet a more resilient long-term demand outlook. And they're looking beyond the shale with their faster decline curves, to deepwater development and exploration in frontier region.

隨著客戶將目標轉向營運效率，我們不斷開發和推出 RunReady™ 和油井完整性服務，透過提高油井的安全性和可靠性來支持他們。大型石油和天然氣公司正在尋求新的生產儲量，以滿足更具韌性的長期需求前景。他們不再局限於頁岩油氣產量下降速度較快的領域，而是將目光投向了偏遠地區的深水開發和勘探。

Tenaris with its capacity to develop product for complex operation and to support fast track development with service and the supply of advanced coated line pipe solution at scale is working with most of these companies as they develop such projects. As new offshore projects are sanctioned around the world, we see many opportunities to renew our order backlog, while we execute on existing commitments.

Tenaris 擁有為複雜操作開發產品的能力，並能透過提供服務和大規模供應先進的塗層管線解決方案來支援快速開發，因此正在與大多數此類公司合作開發此類專案。隨著世界各地新的海上項目獲得批准，我們看到了許多更新訂單積壓的機會，同時我們也履行現有的承諾。

Currently, we are delivering casing for Shell's Sparta 20K project in the US deep water extending our services for ExxonMobil operation in Guyana and preparing a service base for total energy GranMorgu development in Suriname, while planning the production of seamless and welded line pipe and coating for the third phase of TPAO, Sakarya gas development in the Black Sea.

目前，我們正在為殼牌公司在美國深水區的 Sparta 20K 項目提供套管，擴大我們在圭亞那為埃克森美孚公司提供的服務，並為 Total Energy 在蘇利南的 GranMorgu 開發項目準備服務基地，同時計劃為 TPAO 在黑海的 Sakarya 天然氣開發項目的第三階段生產無縫和焊接管線及塗層。

In Latin America, the Mexican government is taking steps to address the financial difficulties of PEMEX, which took a toll on oil and gas drilling activity in the country last year. While in Argentina, domestic companies have been able to raise more than $4 billion in financing to develop infrastructure and expand production operation in the Vaca Muerta shale. We supplied the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline and are currently supplying the Duplicar Norte pipeline.

在拉丁美洲，墨西哥政府正在採取措施解決墨西哥國家石油公司（PEMEX）的財務困境，該困境去年對該國的石油和天然氣鑽探活動造成了影響。同時，阿根廷國內企業已籌集超過 40 億美元的資金，用於開發基礎設施和擴大瓦卡穆爾塔頁岩的生產營運。我們曾為 Vaca Muerta Sur 管道供貨，目前正在為 Duplicar Norte 管道供貨。

We are also investing to expand our new fracking and coil tubing service business and expect to put a third set of equipment to work before the end of the year. In Venezuela, following the intervention of the US government, we are resuming our service to Chevron operation and building up our service capability in the country to support an increase in drilling activity.

我們也正在投資擴大新的水力壓裂和連續油管服務業務，預計在年底前投入第三套設備使用。在委內瑞拉，在美國政府的干預下，我們正在恢復對雪佛龍業務的服務，並增強我們在該國的服務能力，以支持鑽井活動的增加。

In the Middle East, we continue to consolidate our presence with the award of a long-term agreement for the supplier of OCTG to the Northwest field development in Qatar. While in the Emirates, we enhance our Rig Direct® service to ADNOC, delivering a record amount of OCTG. Saudi Arabia, also conventional drilling activity was reduced during the year. We completed an expansion at our local large diameter facility, from which we are supplying line pipe for the development of gas infrastructure, in addition to the OCTG, we supply for Aramco drilling operations. Our global integrated industrial and supply chain operations have been key to our ability to respond effectively to the different events we faced during the year. We continue to invest in enhancing the efficiency and digital integration of these operations as well as reducing their environmental impact.

在中東，我們透過與卡達西北油田開發案簽訂長期供應商協議，繼續鞏固我們的市場地位，成為該專案的油田管材供應商。在阿聯酋期間，我們加強了對 ADNOC 的 Rig Direct® 服務，交付了創紀錄數量的 OCTG。沙烏地阿拉伯的常規鑽探活動在年內也有所減少。我們完成了本地大直徑管道設施的擴建，除了為沙特阿美鑽井作業提供油田管材外，我們還從該設施供應用於天然氣基礎設施建設的管線管道。我們全球一體化的工業和供應鏈營運是我們能夠有效應對一年中遇到的各種事件的關鍵。我們將繼續投資，以提高這些業務的效率和數位化整合，並減少其對環境的影響。

We made further progress towards our midterm target of reducing the carbon emission intensity of our operations as we brought our second wind farm in Argentina into operation. The two wind farms now supply essentially all of the energy requirements for our electric steel shop and operation in Campana.

我們在降低營運碳排放強度的中期目標方面取得了進一步進展，我們在阿根廷的第二個風電場投入營運。這兩個風力發電場現在基本上滿足了我們在坎帕納的電鋼車間和運營的所有能源需求。

As an industrial company, our commitment to the safety of our employees and to the environment sustainability in our communities is absolute. Also, our indicators have improved this year, we continue to reinforce our preventive actions and monitor our performance in this aspect. Tenaris, with its presence across the world, competitive differentiation in product service, the quality and compliance of its operation and the financial strength to support its strategy remains well placed to confront and unpredictable and volatile future.

作為一家工業企業，我們對員工安全和社區環境永續發展的承諾是絕對的。此外，我們今年的各項指標均有所改善，我們將持續加強預防措施，並密切關注這方面的表現。泰納瑞斯憑藉其遍布全球的業務、產品服務方面的競爭優勢、營運的品質和合規性以及支持其策略的雄厚財力，仍然能夠很好地應對不可預測和動蕩的未來。

I would like to thank all our employees and the communities who sustain our operation for their constant commitment and engagement that have made possible our results and achievement this year. I would also like to thank our customers and our suppliers for their ongoing trust and support.

我要感謝我們所有的員工以及支持我們營運的社區，感謝他們持續的奉獻和參與，正是他們的付出和投入才使我們今年取得瞭如此佳績。我還要感謝我們的客戶和供應商一直以來的信任和支持。

Thank you very much, and we are open to any questions you may have.

非常感謝，我們樂意解答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

馬克·比安奇，TD Cowen。

I want to start by asking about the outlook here in first quarter and -- maybe you could talk about, to the extent you're comfortable, how things progress beyond first quarter. When you talked about being close to current levels in fourth quarter, is that -- should we interpret that as meaning flat -- and are there any nuances with volume and price that we should be thinking about as we build that out? And then any comments sort of beyond first quarter would be great.

我想先問一下第一季的展望，然後——如果您覺得合適的話——也許您可以談談第一季之後的發展。您之前提到第四季度接近當前水平，這是否意味著持平？在建立這個模型時，我們應該考慮成交量和價格的哪些細微差別？此外，也歡迎大家對第一季之後的情況發表意見。

Well, thank you, Marc. Well, within our visibility today and considering many parts moving in the energy market and also in general geopolitical environment, I think is not easy to have a medium-term forecast. Now what we see is a relative stability of our performance and our position in the market during the first quarter and is not so easy. We do not see today a point that should disrupt our operation even in the second quarter.

謝謝你，馬克。嗯，就我們目前的視野而言，考慮到能源市場許多因素的變化以及整體地緣政治環境，我認為做出中期預測並不容易。現在我們看到的是，在第一季度，我們的業績和市場地位相對穩定，但這並不容易。我們認為目前不會出現任何可能幹擾我們營運的情況，即使在第二季也是如此。

But for the time being, as we say, we feel comfortable in forecasting first quarter in which the level of margin and in general, the results we can get are more or less in line with 4Q. But it's difficult to have a more long-term forecast considering the volatility of the environment, in which we are moving.

但就目前而言，正如我們所說，我們對第一季的預測感到滿意，因為利潤率水平以及我們總體上能夠取得的業績與第四季度大致相同。但考慮到我們所處環境的波動性，很難做出更長期的預測。

Yes. Makes sense. And then the other one maybe somewhat related, the margin resilience in the fourth quarter was quite good. And I'm curious how much of that benefited from some of the actions that you're taking, I think you mentioned Koppel in the press release to try to offset some of the tariff headwind that you've experienced. I think previously, we talked about that being something like $140 million a quarter of tariff costs that you're having to deal with. So I'm curious how much progress did you make on that in 4Q? And what is the opportunity going forward?

是的。有道理。還有一點可能與之有些關聯，那就是第四季的利潤率韌性相當不錯。我很好奇，您採取的一些措施在多大程度上幫助了您？我想您在新聞稿中提到了 Koppel，試圖抵消您遇到的一些關稅阻力。我認為之前我們討論過，你們每季要承擔大約 1.4 億美元的關稅成本。所以我很想知道你們第四季在這方面取得了多少進展？那麼，未來的機會是什麼？

Well, we are, let's say, continuously operating in the efficiency of our operation, including our capacity to produce more steel in the US. So we expect for the first quarter of next year, that a lower level of tariff will get into our IFRS because in the end, we are operating on this even in the past few months. And we think that what is getting into our results in the first Q will be relatively slightly lower of what we have in the fourth Q.

嗯，可以說，我們一直在不斷提高營運效率，包括我們在美國生產更多鋼鐵的能力。因此，我們預計明年第一季度，較低的關稅水準將納入我們的國際財務報告準則 (IFRS)，因為歸根結底，即使在過去的幾個月裡，我們也一直按照這一水準進行運作。我們認為，第一季業績中出現的偏差將比第四季略低一些。

But on the other side, the indicator of prices in North America, I mean, in spite of the impact on the hot roll coil and other products of the steel industry are moving relatively slow in the pipe business and especially in a welded pipe. So considering the impact of slightly lower tariff and where we are in terms of Pipe Logix and so I think what is moving around in the world, I think that this is the component that justify our vision of a relatively stable top line and margin data for the first quarter.

但另一方面，北美的價格指標，我的意思是，儘管對熱軋捲板和其他鋼鐵行業產品的影響，管道業務，特別是焊接管道業務，進展相對緩慢。因此，考慮到關稅略微降低的影響，以及我們在 Pipe Logix 所處的位置，以及全球範圍內正在發生的變化，我認為正是這一因素支撐了我們對第一季營收和利潤率數據相對穩定的預期。

Matt Smith, Bank of America.

馬特史密斯，美國銀行。

My first question was around the international business and on pricing. Just whether you have seen any signs at all of pricing pressure given how some of the international benchmarks have traded down, I guess, since summer 2025. Any color you could give on different regions could be useful.

我的第一個問題是關於國際業務和定價的。我只是想知道，鑑於一些國際基準指數自 2025 年夏季以來有所下跌，您是否看到任何價格壓力的跡象。用不同的顏色來區分不同的區域可能會很有用。

Thank you, Matt. I would say that, as you know, our business globally is composed of many different niche high demanding product, different region, different level of service. So I would say, to some extent, the price impact is more easy to understand and project in North America than internationally. But by the way, I will ask Gabriel to give you a vision of what we see in front of us on that ground.

謝謝你，馬特。如您所知，我們的全球業務由許多不同的細分市場高需求產品、不同的地區、不同的服務水準組成。因此，我認為在某種程度上，北美的價格影響比國際價格影響更容易理解和預測。對了，我會請加百列向你們展示我們眼前這片土地上的景象。

Yeah. Thank you, Paolo. On the pricing on the international markets, we see, in general, some stability, a balanced demand and supply, especially on the premium products, where we are mainly focused. So premium, sour service, high technical qualified pipelines. This demand is quite strong, driven by offshore, by Middle East, in gas and sour service development. So we see the demand on these segments quite stable. We have, in many cases, long-term agreements that have some formulas related to raw materials.

是的。謝謝你，保羅。關於國際市場定價，我們看到整體上比較穩定，供需平衡，尤其是在我們主要關注的高端產品方面。所以，我們提供優質、優質的服務，以及技術水準高的管道。這種需求相當強勁，主要由海上、中東、天然氣和酸性油氣服務開發領域的需求所驅動。因此，我們看到這些細分市場的需求相當穩定。在許多情況下，我們都簽訂了長期協議，其中包含一些與原料相關的配方。

So I would say that the majority of our backlog and our business in international markets are driven by stability in the pricing. It is true that there are some spot tendering where we're seeing a slight deterioration in the environment, especially when we are talking about lower end applications, but this is not -- the most important part of our business, and this is something that we monitor.

因此，我認為我們大部分的積壓訂單和國際市場業務都是由價格穩定性所驅動的。確實，在某些現場招標中，我們看到環境略有惡化，尤其是在低端應用領域，但這並不是我們業務最重要的部分，我們會密切關注這一點。

So I would say, given all the moving pieces and the increasing component of our offshore within 2026 our international mix, I would say that pricing in the international markets are quite stable for Tenaris.

因此，考慮到所有變動因素以及到 2026 年我們國際業務組合中離岸業務佔比的不斷增加，我認為 Tenaris 在國際市場上的定價相當穩定。

Thank you, Gabriel. Let me just add one point on which maybe that is the European. In Europe, maybe it's early to perceive the impact, but the CBAM and the safeguard that is supposed to raise the quota -- to raise the tariff to 50% and reduce the quota by almost 50% may have a favorable impact on relatively important segment of our international business that is all supported by the industrial powergen activity into Europe.

謝謝你，加布里埃爾。我只想補充一點，也許這一點跟歐洲有關。在歐洲，或許現在感知其影響還為時過早，但CBAM和旨在提高配額的保障措施——將關稅提高到50%，並將配額減少近50%——可能會對我們國際業務中相對重要的部分產生有利影響，而這部分業務完全依賴對歐洲的工業發電活動。

To some extent, I think in the view of the overall say, future of our operation, maybe not immediately, but we should be able to maybe improve our situation in pricing in Europe. And also this reflect with the present exchange rate gets into our -- to our top line relatively well.

從整體來看，就我們未來的營運而言，我認為在某種程度上，也許不會立即見效，但我們應該能夠改善我們在歐洲的定價狀況。而且，目前的匯率也相對很好地反映了我們的營收。

Perfect. I wanted to ask the second question around the buyback, if I could. So I appreciate the current tranche of $600 million is still ongoing, and we'll have to sort of await the next announcement later in the year. So I just wanted to ask, check whether your philosophy around the buyback has changed at all since last year? Or should we very much expect this to be continue to be a material component of shareholder returns in the near future?

完美的。如果可以的話，我想問一下關於回購的第二個問題。所以我很高興目前的 6 億美元撥款仍在進行中，我們還需要等待今年稍後的下一項公告。所以我想問一下，你們對股票回購的概念和去年相比是否有所改變？或者我們應該預期，在不久的將來，這將繼續成為股東回報的重要組成部分？

Yes. Thank you, as you are saying, the General Assembly and the Board decided for a program of share buyback of $1.2 billion from May 2025 until May in 2026, divided in two tranches, the second tranche has been approved again in October. Now the decision obviously is to the assembly and the Board for the decision on this ground.

是的。謝謝，正如您所說，股東大會和董事會決定從 2025 年 5 月到 2026 年 5 月實施一項 12 億美元的股票回購計劃，分兩批進行，第二批已於 10 月再次獲得批准。現在，顯然應該由大會和董事會就此做出決定。

But let's say, the factors that were relevant for the decision on the shareholder didn't change so much. So we will see if in the assembly in May, and the Board after this should decide on this, when the second tranche of 600 will be closed. Then will consider the different factor level of cash availability company, the perspective of this. And on this basis, they will consider a possibility to continue the program of share buyback.

但假設與股東決定相關的因素並沒有太大變化。所以我們將在五月的大會上看看，之後董事會應該對此做出決定，屆時第二批 600 人將關閉。然後，我們將從這個角度考慮公司現金可用性的不同因素水準。在此基礎上，他們將考慮繼續推行股票回購計畫的可能性。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

I was wondering if we could talk about your expectations around potentially getting to an inflection point in the Pipe Logix pricing indices, just given your thoughts on import trends and where -- when and where could you expect us to see that pricing inflection point? Because it continues to trend down, call it, in low percentage points at this point, looking at the most recent pricing data?

我想問一下，鑑於您對進口趨勢的看法，我們能否談談您對 Pipe Logix 價格指數可能達到拐點的預期，以及您預計我們會在何時何地看到價格拐點？因為根據最新的價格數據來看，它目前仍在持續下降，儘管下降幅度很小，但仍呈下降趨勢。

Yes. Thank you, Arun. Well, the factors that are, let's say, having an impact on the Pipe Logix are different. But you should also consider that there is a Pipe Logix for seamless and the Pipe Logix for welded. What we see is that, to some extent, the Pipe Logix for welded is having a drag down on the overall impact, something that maybe we're not estimating -- fully estimating before. Why?

是的。謝謝你，阿倫。嗯，影響 Pipe Logix 的因素各不相同。但您也應該考慮到，Pipe Logix 有用於無縫管的版本，也有焊接管的版本。我們發現，在某種程度上，焊接管道的邏輯設計對整體影響產生了拖累，而我們之前可能沒有充分估計這一點。為什麼？

When we saw the hot-rolled coil index going up as it is going up today, we were considering that this should have driven an increase in the welded pipe. But the import of welded pipe coming in based on the Chinese or Southeast Asia or other sources flat product is, let's say, containing movement in the Pipe Logix for welded. And this is to some extent, having also an impact on the Pipe Logix for seamless product.

當我們看到熱軋捲板指數像今天這樣持續上漲時，我們認為這應該會帶動焊接管材價格上漲。但是，從中國、東南亞或其他來源進口的焊接管材，可以說，正在影響焊接管材在管線物流中的流動。在某種程度上，這也對無縫管道產品的管道邏輯產生了影響。

Now the hot-rolled coil went up so much that is clearing the way for some import in the welded product and putting under stress the producer of welded product based on hot rolled coils coming from the US. In my view, this is kind of temporary because antidumping action against importation or import of welded will contribute to the gradual alignment of the Pipe Logix to the higher level of the hot roll. But this is not something that we can anticipate immediately for the first quarter. But over time, should be acting -- should be a factor.

現在熱軋捲板價格上漲了很多，這為焊接產品的進口掃清了障礙，也給以美國熱軋捲板為基礎的焊接產品生產商帶來了壓力。在我看來，這只是暫時的，因為針對進口焊接管材的反傾銷行動將有助於 Pipe Logix 逐步向更高水平的熱軋管材靠攏。但這並非我們能在第一季立即預期會出現的情況。但隨著時間的推移，應該會發揮作用——應該成為一個因素。

Great. And my follow-up, Paolo, I was wondering if you could just provide us your thoughts on how Argentina could play out in 2026 versus 2025? I know that you're adding a third frac fleet in Argentina, but give us a sense of how you see things progressing in the ground because we have seen some IOCs adding rigs in that market.

偉大的。保羅，我的後續問題是，你能否談談你對阿根廷在 2026 年和 2025 年的表現有何看法？我知道你們正在阿根廷增加第三支壓裂作業船隊，但請你們談談對現場作業進展的看法，因為我們看到一些國際石油公司正在該市場增加鑽機。

Well, let me tell you that as I was saying in the previous conference, after the election in Argentina, remember, the confidence on the investing community is increasing in Argentina. And even the oil and gas companies been able to finance more than $4 billion collect financing from different tools. They will be used to, let's say, promote and carry on investment plan during 2026. These process has been relatively gradual.

嗯，讓我告訴你們，正如我在上次會議上所說，阿根廷大選之後，人們對阿根廷投資界的信心正在增強。甚至石油和天然氣公司也能夠透過各種融資管道籌集超過 40 億美元的資金。例如，它們將用於在 2026 年推廣和實施投資計劃。這個過程相對來說是漸進的。

But I think that over the second part of '26 and also following the biggest investment in the infrastructure, we will see this collection of financial capability will transform into a higher level of drilling in the country. This has been slower than probably we were expecting one year ago. Because opportunity are there, but also the level of country risk stayed a little higher after the election than we may be were estimating, and this is -- maybe is slowing down or at least is making more gradual, the pickup or the increase.

但我認為，在 2026 年下半年，隨著對基礎設施的最大投資，我們將看到這種金融能力的累積將轉化為該國更高水準的鑽探活動。這比我們一年前預期的要慢。因為機會確實存在，但選舉後國家風險水平仍然比我們預想的要高一些，而且這種情況——或許正在放緩，或者至少正在變得更加漸進地——復甦或增長。

Also, some of these resources have been used for consolidation in the industry, especially by local player. And after this consolidation, the investment will go into operation in the development. First, some of the acquisition has been completed and gradually in this field, drilling will increase. I would expect in the second half of 2026, we will see something moving in this sense.

此外，其中一些資源已被用於行業整合，尤其是由本地企業整合。完成整合後，投資將投入開發營運。首先，部分收購工作已經完成，該領域的鑽探活動將逐漸增加。我預計在 2026 年下半年，我們將看到這方面的一些進展。

part of the drilling containment has been coming by the reduction of the operation in the south part of the country. This is obvious. There has been a closure of operation in the south. So the key and the core of it of everything will be Vaca Muerta.

部分鑽井作業限制措施是透過減少該國南部地區的作業量來實現的。這顯而易見。南部地區的營運已經停止。所以，一切的關鍵和核心都將是瓦卡穆埃爾塔。

Sebastian Erskine, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Sebastian Erskine，羅斯柴爾德公司雷德伯恩分公司。

I'd like to just start on the margin trajectory for Tenaris in 2026. And I think, Paolo, you mentioned earlier about the impact of kind of hot rolled coil on ERW margins. I mean looking at that, I think in the US, those have compressed about sort of $350 a tonne since August. So I guess that would equate to something like a sort of $35 million, $40 million quarterly cost headwind, but that will take a wilder show up. So when does that flow through into COGS? Or is it something we shouldn't really be thinking about as a meaningful impact? Any color there would be helpful.

我想從 2026 年開始分析 Tenaris 的利潤率走勢。保羅，我想你之前也提到過熱軋捲材對ERW利潤率的影響。我的意思是，從這個角度來看，我認為自 8 月以來，美國的原油價格已經壓縮了大約每噸 350 美元。所以我覺得這相當於每季要增加約 3,500 萬到 4,000 萬美元的成本，但這需要出現更極端的情況。那麼，這些成本何時會轉化為銷售成本呢？或者，我們其實不該把它看作是有意義的影響？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

And then I guess on top of that, and more positively, when we look into the second half of the year, you've obviously got a lot of offshore work to materialize. So you mentioned Sakarya, Surinam and presumably, obviously, that's a high margin. So could we expect you to operate at the top end of your kind of 20% to 25% EBITDA margin going? Is that realistic going forward through the rest of the year and kind of second half weighting.

而且，更積極的一面是，展望下半年，顯然有許多海外計畫需要落實。所以你提到了薩卡里亞和蘇利南，顯然，那裡的利潤率很高。那麼，我們是否可以預期貴公司的 EBITDA 利潤率能達到 20% 至 25% 的較高水準呢？這種預測方式是否現實，能否貫穿今年剩餘時間以及下半年的比賽節奏？

Maybe Gabriel, you can give an overview part of the question. And then eventually, we will ask Guillermo on the other part of it.

或許加布里埃爾，你可以概述一下這個問題。最後，我們會就另一部分詢問吉列爾莫。

Sure, Sebastian. Going to the part of your question related to offshore and how they will play out during 2026, I would say that the market in the offshore is quite operating at high levels. We have a strong backlog that we need to execute as Paolo commented in the opening remarks, we are getting ready to deliver this impact of execution. These are complex projects that require local deployments. You mentioned the Suriname project.

當然可以，塞巴斯蒂安。關於您提出的有關離岸金融以及它們在 2026 年的發展趨勢的問題，我認為離岸金融市場目前處於高位運作狀態。正如保羅在開幕致詞中所說，我們有大量積壓項目需要執行，我們正在準備交付這些項目，以發揮執行力帶來的影響力。這些都是需要本地部署的複雜專案。你提到了蘇利南計畫。

We are building the new service base in Suriname, the new -- the first shipments will arrive in June. So we are ready to deploy the OCTG and Rig Direct® services there into the second half of the year. We are also, for example, producing today thermal insulation coating in Nigeria to support the Shell Bonga North deepwater development. So these are an important part of our focus and attention is on delivering the high backlog of orders, and we expect revenues in the offshore in the first half of 2026 to be higher than the second half of 2025.

我們正在蘇利南建造新的服務基地，首批貨物將於六月抵達。因此，我們已準備好在今年下半年在那裡部署 OCTG 和 Rig Direct® 服務。例如，我們目前也在奈及利亞生產隔熱塗料，以支持殼牌邦加北部深水開發計畫。因此，這是我們重點關注的一部分，我們的注意力集中在交付大量積壓訂單上，我們預計 2026 年上半年海外收入將高於 2025 年下半年。

We will talk about the second half. It's true. We have an important backlog of Sakarya, and other projects. Some of these awards, additional awards require FIDs. We see some of the FIDs being announced towards the end of this year or even in 2027. So this will depend. So we don't have fully confirmed the backlog over second half of 2026, but we are confident that it will be at least as positive as the first half of 2026.

接下來我們將討論下半部。沒錯。我們積壓了大量關於薩卡里亞和其他項目的工作。其中一些獎項，以及額外的獎項，需要最終投資決定 (FID)。我們看到一些最終投資決定（FID）將在今年年底甚至 2027 年公佈。這要視情況而定。因此，我們尚未完全確認 2026 年下半年的積壓情況，但我們相信至少會與 2026 年上半年一樣樂觀。

So overall, I would say the offshore contribution will be important for Tenaris and if you look at the industry projections, the level of FIDs of deepwater that we are seeing for 2027 are pretty strong, higher than the average of 25% and 26%, and we are engaging with our customers early on in those projects much earlier than the FID. So we believe that we're in an offshore cycle, that is going to be sustained for a multiyear period.

總的來說，我認為海上業務對 Tenaris 的貢獻將非常重要。如果你看看產業預測，你會發現 2027 年深水計畫的最終投資決定 (FID) 水準相當強勁，高於 25% 和 26% 的平均值。而且，我們在這些專案的早期階段就與客戶進行了接觸，遠早於最終投資決定 (FID) 的做出。因此，我們認為我們正處於離岸週期中，而且這個週期將持續多年。

This is very important. When we look at the estimate of the investment in deep offshore of '27 and '28. The number apparent estimation are showing a level of investment in the range of $120 million in 28. There are almost 3 times some of the low end years in the past two, three years. So long term, look promising. Now Guillermo maybe you can add on the US operation vision.

這非常重要。當我們查看 2027 年和 2028 年對深海油氣投資的估算。根據初步估算，28 月的投資金額約為 1.2 億美元。近兩三年裡，某些年份的低潮幾乎是現在的三倍。所以長遠來看，前景可期。吉列爾莫，或許你可以補充美國方面的行動願景。

Yeah. Thank you, Paolo, and Sebastian. Well, regarding your question about the trajectory of margins in the US and particularly for our ERW pipes. Clearly, the recent increase of prices of the hot rolled coil and still the reduction of prices for the same product is putting a lot of pressure on our margins. And that is going -- that are going to be reflected mainly in the second quarter.

是的。謝謝保羅和塞巴斯蒂安。關於您提出的關於美國利潤率趨勢，特別是我們ERW鋼管利潤率趨勢的問題。顯然，近期熱軋捲材價格上漲，而同類產品價格又持續下降，這給我們的利潤率帶來了極大的壓力。而這些變化——主要將在第二季體現出來。

For the following quarters with all the volatility that we are seeing, it's more difficult to forecast, as Paolo explained before, but and will depend mainly on the ability of Pipe Logix to recover but we think that eventually will based on the push of the cost hot roll coil and the scrap and also because of the expectation that the imports will continue to go down in the future.

鑑於目前我們所看到的種種波動，未來幾季的預測更加困難，正如保羅之前解釋的那樣，這主要取決於 Pipe Logix 的複蘇能力，但我們認為，最終它會復蘇，這得益於熱軋捲材和廢鋼成本的下降，也因為我們預期未來進口量將繼續下降。

Stephen Gengaro, Stifel.

Stephen Gengaro，Stifel。

So two things for me really. One is, can you talk a little bit about your expectations in 2026 for any material changes in working capital as we sort of try to think about free cash flow generation? And then maybe aligned with that, what level of cash do you feel like you need on the balance sheet to run the business? Like what level excess versus what's sort of normal necessary operational cash?

所以對我來說，其實只有兩件事。第一個問題是，您能否談談您對 2026 年營運資本方面任何重大變化的預期，因為我們正在考慮自由現金流的產生？那麼，或許可以結合這一點，您認為資產負債表上需要多少現金才能維持業務運作？例如，超支金額和正常營運所需現金的比例是多少？

Thank you, Stephen. Well, in general, remember, it's not only a question of the capital we need to run the business, but we also need to have always in mind the capital we need to have available for any expansion or opportunity that may come in front of us.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。總的來說，請記住，這不僅是我們經營業務所需的資金問題，而且我們還需要始終牢記我們需要準備多少資金，以應對任何可能出現的擴張或機會。

This is an important consideration for the Board, for everybody when we consider the financial strategy in the flows to the shareholder. But as far as the working capital is concerned, I would ask Carlos an overall view because there are some area receivable from some of the clients that is improving. And so you can give us a view of how we see this.

對於董事會而言，這是一個重要的考量因素，對於我們每個人在考慮股東收益分配的財務策略時也是如此。但就營運資金而言，我想請卡洛斯提供一份整體情況報告，因為部分客戶的應收帳款情況正在改善。所以，請您談談您對此的看法。

Sure. Thanks, Paolo. Okay. For the 2026, we expect to be quite neutral in working capital, but we will have some swings over the year, especially in the first quarter, we're expecting an increase in working capital, mainly driven by our accounts receivable as you saw during the fourth quarter, we have a big reduction in receivables, mainly driven by collections in some big collections from PEMEX. I think with Pemex, we have arrived to a level that from now on, will maintain or increase a little bit -- so we won't be seeing a working capital reduction coming from there.

當然。謝謝你，保羅。好的。對於 2026 年，我們預計營運資本將保持相對穩定，但全年會有一些波動，尤其是在第一季度，我們預計營運資本將會增加，這主要是由於應收帳款的增加。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們的應收帳款大幅減少，這主要是由於從墨西哥石油公司 (PEMEX) 收回了一些大額款項。我認為，就墨西哥國家石油公司（Pemex）而言，我們已經達到了一個水平，從現在開始，這個水平將保持或略有增長——因此我們不會看到營運資本減少。

And then we are seeing also some terms --renegotiating some terms with customers in the best that might impact a little bit our working capital needs. And also, we are seeing some slight increase in sales for the first quarter that will also imply an increase in accounts receivables.

此外，我們也看到一些條款—與客戶重新協商一些條款，這可能會對我們的營運資金需求產生一些影響。此外，我們看到第一季銷售額略有成長，這也意味著應收帳款將會增加。

In terms of inventory, maybe for managing our -- in our balance sheet, the service component of the company is very visible. We have the fixed capital that is slightly higher than the -- our working capital because in the end, we have a lot of inventory to support our service strategy and our Rig Direct® strategy. You think, Gabriel, we can imagine some reduction of this streamlining inventory or visually, you imagine a stable situation here.

就庫存而言，或許是為了管理我們的——在我們的資產負債表中，公司的服務部分非常明顯。我們的固定資本略高於流動資本，因為最終，我們有大量的庫存來支援我們的服務策略和 Rig Direct® 策略。加布里埃爾，你覺得我們可以想像減少一些精簡庫存，或者從視覺上看，你可以想像這裡的情況穩定下來。

In general, Paolo, we are always looking for opportunities to improve. This is the case in all our Rig Direct® programs, we are managing and balancing the ability to supply and have the right stock at the right moment and have efficient working capital. So this is a constant work. We have done an improvement during the year that we will continue this year on the working process. material. So this is something related to our industrial efficiency where we have been improving, and we have more room to improve.

總的來說，保羅，我們一直在尋找改進的機會。在我們所有的 Rig Direct® 專案中，情況都是如此，我們正在管理和平衡供應能力，在合適的時間擁有合適的庫存，並擁有高效的營運資金。所以這是一項持續不斷的工作。我們在過去一年中對工作流程和材料進行了一些改進，今年我們將繼續推進這些改進。所以這與我們不斷提高的工業效率有關，而且我們還有很大的提升空間。

And then there is a part of steel, as we have this important LSAW pipelines that we need to buy the steel in anticipation. So typically, there is a longer lead time on these large pipelines that are also reflected throughout the year. But this is an area of attention and we always think there is room for improvement.

此外，還有一部分是鋼鐵，因為我們有重要的LSAW管道，我們需要提前購買鋼鐵。因此，這些大型管道的建設週期通常較長，而且這種狀況也會貫穿全年。但這是一個需要關注的領域，我們始終認為還有改進的空間。

It is important for projects like Sakarya.

這對像薩卡里亞這樣的計畫來說很重要。

For example.

例如。

Long term, a long period of time.

從長遠來看，指很長一段時間。

Yes.

是的。

And also our operation may demand working capital for serving ADNOC with a long operation and stock demand.

此外，由於長期營運和庫存需求，我們的營運可能需要營運資金來滿足 ADNOC 的需求。

We are serving every month 550 rigs worldwide. So this requires to have the right material close to the...

我們每月為全球 550 台鑽孔機提供服務。因此，這就需要合適的材料靠近…

Serving 550 rigs every day imply to keep all the inventory even in a remote region or at least the life in the Gulf. But still, we're working every day to understand how we can optimize, but by the way,.

每天為 550 個鑽井平台提供服務意味著即使在偏遠地區也要保持所有庫存充足，或至少確保海灣地區的正常運作。但是，我們仍然每天都在努力了解如何進行最佳化，順便說一句，

No, that's very helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

Alessandro Pozzi，Mediobanca。

The first one is really going back to the Q2 guidance. You mentioned a bit of an impact from higher raw material costs I was wondering if you could perhaps quantify or give a sense of what that could be in Q2? And also as we look throughout the year, I was wondering if there is any quarter where we could see an impact from mix, for example, more line pipe versus seamless and having an idea of the cadence of line pipe volumes, I think, could be quite interesting and also on maintenance, whether you have any big maintenance quarters.

第一個問題其實是要回到第二季的業績指引。您提到原物料成本上漲會帶來一定影響，我想知道您能否量化一下或大致說明一下第二季可能受到的影響？此外，展望全年，我想知道是否有某個季度會受到管道組合的影響，例如，更多的管線管道與無縫管道相比，了解管線管道的產量節奏可能會很有趣，還有維護方面，是否有任何大型維護季度。

Second question on Argentina. Can you comment on the level of competition you've seen there -- we've seen an Indian company getting a contract for a pipeline -- and I was wondering your thoughts about the competition there as volumes, as you pointed out, are going up possibly from second half.

關於阿根廷的第二個問題。您能否就您在那裡看到的競爭程度發表一下看法？我們看到一家印度公司獲得了管道合約。正如您所指出的，隨著銷量可能從下半年開始上升，我想知道您對那裡的競爭有何看法。

Thank you, Alessandro. Well, on the first point, there is, let's say, the impact of the --When we look at the medium term, in term of this, we always keep -- follow basically four points. The Pipe Logix for seamless, the Pipe Logix for welded, the cost of hot-roll coil and the cost of scrap.

謝謝你，亞歷山德羅。嗯，關於第一點，比如說，當我們從中長期來看，在這方面，我們始終遵循以下四點。無縫管的管道邏輯、焊接管的管道邏輯、熱軋捲材成本和廢料成本。

So on these four variables that are moving are acting on our, let's say, the indicator in the formula of our contract many times, and also the costs that are underlying. Up to now, I mean what we see is an increase in the hot roll coils, that is not followed by the Pipe Logix in welded because there is import from companies that could stay below the line of price even paying 50%.

因此，這四個變化的變數會多次作用於我們的合約公式中的指標，以及相關的成本。到目前為止，我們看到的是熱軋捲材的​​成長，但焊接管道 Logix 並沒有跟上，因為進口商即使支付 50% 的價格也能將價格保持在底線以下。

This is hitting in our -- to some extent, on our margin. But we think that this would be a reaction by the Pipe Logix some antidumping action to contain import. And I will ask Guillermo, if you see this happening in medium term, I mean when we can recover the increased cost of the of the hot roll coils in our top line.

這在某種程度上影響了我們的利潤空間。但我們認為這可能是 Pipe Logix 為遏制進口而採取的反傾銷措施。我會問吉列爾莫，你是否認為這種情況會在中期內發生，我的意思是，當我們能夠從營業額中收回熱軋捲材增加的成本時。

Yeah. I think that following what I said before, I mean, remember, there is always a lag between the Pipe Logix and how they reflect in our prices. So normally, we have a one quarter delay. And while the impact of the hot roll coils comes sooner than that. Our expectation would be that we should start to see some reduction in Q3, but particularly in Q4.

是的。我認為，正如我之前所說，請記住，Pipe Logix 的數據和我們實際收到的價格之間總是存在滯後。所以通常情況下，我們會有四分之一的延遲。但熱軋捲板的影響會更早到來。我們預計第三季度，特別是第四季度，將開始看到一些下降。

Yeah, thank you, Guillermo. Now on the line pipe seamless after the acquisition of Shawcor, the line pipe for us is very relevant, and we are, I think, very competitive. But maybe Gabriel, Yes, you see some changes in the balance between two.

是的，謝謝你，吉列爾莫。現在，在收購 Shawcor 之後，無縫管線對我們來說非常重要，我認為我們很有競爭力。但也許加布里埃爾，是的，你會看到兩者之間的平衡發生了一些變化。

Yeah, Paolo, Alessandro, regarding your question about the cadence of the pipeline projects, I would say that it's quite stable during the four quarters of this year. This is the visibility that we have today. I'm pretty much in line in volumes on what we had on 2025, where we had important projects like Sakarya. I mean, like Raia in 2025 in Brazil.

是的，保羅、亞歷山德羅，關於你們提出的管道專案進度問題，我想說，今年前四個季度都相當穩定。這就是我們目前所擁有的能見度。就數量而言，我基本上符合我們對 2025 年的預期，當時我們有像 Sakarya 這樣的重要項目。我的意思是，就像 2025 年巴西的 Raia 一樣。

This year, we are concluding some pipelines in Argentina in the first quarter and second quarter. Then we will have Sakarya in the third and fourth quarter. We have a, I would say, a relatively stable plan of pipelines in Saudi Arabia as well. And then the deepwater pipelines that we have in different parts of the world. So I would say there is not significant imbalance in our shipments of line pipes.

今年，我們將在第一季和第二季完成阿根廷的一些管道項目。然後，薩卡里亞將在第三和第四季出場。我認為，我們在沙烏地阿拉伯也有一個相對穩定的管道建設計劃。還有我們在世界各地建造的深水輸油管。所以我認為，我們的管線管線出貨量並沒有出現明顯的失衡。

Thank you, Gabriel. On the last point on the tender in Argentina. Well, this was a tender for a large project for producing LNG in Argentina. The project is carried on by a private company. There is some, let's say, include different shareholders, but is a private company.

謝謝你，加布里埃爾。關於阿根廷招標的最後一個要點。這是阿根廷一個大型液化天然氣生產計畫的招標。該項目由一家私人公司負責實施。有些公司，比如說，股東各不相同，但它是一家私人公司。

They made a tender, a very open tender to everybody. And basically, we lose the tender because we were higher than the lowest bidder. The bidder as you were saying, was an Indian company, things like this happens, obviously.

他們發布了一份招標書，一份面向所有人的非常公開的招標書。基本上，我們得標失敗是因為我們的出價高於最低報價者。正如你所說，競標者是一家印度公司，這種事情很常見。

Now what we are doing, we are analyzing the offer to see if this is an offer that is following the trade practice or is exposed to potentially an antidumping case raised by us. For the time being, we didn't take the decision here. We are just studying the condition, the condition of the local market for the Indian company, the condition of the pricing of this because we think this is important.

現在我們正在分析該報價，看看該報價是否符合貿易慣例，或者是否會面臨我們提出的反傾銷訴訟。目前，我們還沒有做出決定。我們正在研究印度公司在當地市場的狀況，以及定價狀況，因為我們認為這很重要。

We also remember that Argentina had signed an agreement with the United States in which both parties are committing themselves to address the unfair trade practices in both countries is logical for US to advance or introduce clause of this in the relation with different regions, different areas. And this is part of the agreement, the reciprocal trade investment agreement between Argentina. So we think there should be a good environment to analyze the specific situation of this offer and this tender.

我們還記得，阿根廷曾與美國簽署了一項協議，雙方承諾解決兩國之間的不公平貿易行為。因此，美國在與不同地區、不同區域的關係中推進或引入該協議的條款是合乎邏輯的。這是阿根廷與美國之間互惠貿易投資協定的一部分。因此，我們認為應該有一個良好的環境來分析此報價和招標的具體情況。

All right. I don't know if I can squeeze in a last one on Venezuela. In your opening remarks, you mentioned that Chevron is ramping up, drilling activities. Could you quantify the Venezuela opportunities short term, longer term for Tenaris?

好的。我不知道我是否還能擠出時間再寫一篇關於委內瑞拉的文章。您在開場白中提到，雪佛龍公司正在加強鑽井作業。您能否量化一下委內瑞拉為泰納瑞斯公司帶來的短期和長期機會？

Yeah. On this, Gabriel, you follow closely this.

是的。加布里埃爾，關於這一點，你要密切注意。

Yeah. Alessandro on Venezuela. Clearly, the situation is evolving. It's a dynamic environment. But clearly, there are signs that things are going to move positively with the hydrocarbons law and the recent OFAC licenses, I think there are clear signs that some resumption of activity will occur. Today, Tenaris is in a unique position. We are fully serving the Chevron, the only major that is operating in Venezuela. They have a plan to accelerate rigs and demand for tubulars and we are ramping up for that.

是的。亞歷山德羅談委內瑞拉。顯然，情況正在改變。這是一個充滿活力的環境。但很明顯，隨著碳氫化合物法和最近OFAC頒發的許可證，事情顯然會朝著積極的方向發展，我認為有明顯的跡象表明，一些活動將會恢復。如今，泰納瑞斯處於一個獨特的地位。我們正在全力為雪佛龍公司提供服務，雪佛龍公司是委內瑞拉唯一一家大型石油公司。他們制定了一項計劃，旨在加快鑽井平台建設並提高對管材的需求，而我們正在為此做好準備。

This is today something limited, but we expect to expand into 2026. So we are also following the licenses of the other majors that might be coming back to Venezuela soon. So this is, I would say, still in the $50 million for 2026, but with a clear perspective of higher potential in 2027 and when maybe more clear plans about the other majors are materialized. But overall, a big upside potential in the midterm, depending on how things evolve.

目前這項服務還比較有限，但我們預計到 2026 年將會擴大規模。所以我們也在關注其他可能很快重返委內瑞拉的主要航空公司的執照情況。所以，我認為，2026 年的預算仍然在 5000 萬美元左右，但 2027 年的潛力更大，屆時其他主要項目的更明確計劃也可能得以實現。但整體而言，中期來看，上漲潛力巨大，這取決於事態的發展。

So remember, the Chevron will not be alone. There will be other company moving. I think that our position in Venezuela is unique. Remember, we in Venezuela, we were operating the only seamless pipe plant until the plant was expropriated in 2008 by the government by Chavez. And at that time, where the company serving the oil industry in Venezuela.

所以請記住，雪佛龍不會孤軍奮戰。還會有其他公司搬遷。我認為我們在委內瑞拉的處境是獨一無二的。請記住，在委內瑞拉，我們曾經擁有唯一一家無縫鋼管廠，直到 2008 年查維斯政府沒收了這家工廠。當時，這家公司為委內瑞拉的石油業提供服務。

So we also have human resources of people, they are familiar with the operation of Venezuela, the service, the complexity of this, the product demand and so even if a lot of time pass, but we still -- I think we have a very competitive and differentiated position.

所以我們也擁有人力資源，他們熟悉委內瑞拉的營運、服務、複雜性、產品需求等等，所以即使時間過去很久，我們仍然——我認為我們擁有非常有競爭力和差異化的地位。

Right. Sorry, did you say $15 million EBITDA?

正確的。抱歉，您剛才說的是 1500 萬美元的 EBITDA 嗎？

$50 million of revenue.

營收5000萬美元。

Luigi De Bellis, Equita SIM.

Luigi De Bellis，Equita SIM。

Just one for me. On the Middle East and Mexico, could you share your view on the evolution for the coming quarter for both Middle East and Mexico.

我只留一個。關於中東和墨西哥，您能否分享一下您對這兩個地區未來一個季度發展趨勢的看法？

Thank you, Luigi. Well, starting, let's say, from Mexico. Mexico, there has been a number of positive advance in supporting PEMEX, the government capitalize payments with a program of $20 billion that is important. And now Pemex is also issuing bonds and getting access into the market for important sum like $1.7 billion, I mean relevant access with government guarantee. Now what we do not see yet is the definition of the plans that the Pemex will execute during 2026.

謝謝你，路易吉。好，就從墨西哥開始吧。在支持墨西哥國家石油公司（PEMEX）方面，已經取得了一些積極的進展，政府透過一項200億美元的計劃來支付款項，這非常重要。現在，墨西哥國家石油公司（Pemex）也在發行債券，並獲得了進入市場的重要資金，金額高達 17 億美元，我的意思是，在政府擔保下，這是相當重要的資金來源。目前我們還沒有看到墨西哥國家石油公司（Pemex）在 2026 年將執行的具體計畫。

We do not have clear indication of this. And the private company are moving slowly. And some of the group is moving. Obviously, Woodside in the Trion is moving on. But some of the, let's say, the contract may have enabled private company to come and developing the resources.

我們沒有明確的跡象表明這一點。而私營公司進展緩慢。部分成員正在搬家。顯然，伍德賽德在特里翁的處境要改變了。但比如說，合約中的某些條款可能使私人公司能夠進入並開發資源。

In my view, this is moving relatively slowly today. Maybe by the end, the middle of 2026, we will have a better understanding of how they will organize, let's say, the development of the clearly huge resources that Mexico has. Now the question on Middle East, medium-term vision, I think, Gabriel may comment on this.

在我看來，目前進展相對緩慢。或許到 2026 年末或年中，我們就能更了解他們將如何組織，比如說，如何開發墨西哥顯然擁有的龐大資源。現在談到中東的中期展望問題，我認為加布里埃爾可能會對此發表評論。

Yes, sure. Luigi, for the question on Middle East, I would say there's not much change on what we have been reporting in the last couple of quarters. Activity remains high all the main key countries are investing. We have a strong position there with our long-term agreements in Saudi, UAE, Qatar and part of the market in Iraq as well. So I would expect our revenues and shipment in the next two quarters, first and second quarter of '26 to be pretty much in line with the last two quarter of 2025.

當然可以。路易吉，關於中東問題，我想說，與我們過去幾季報道的情況相比，並沒有太大變化。市場活動依然活躍，所有主要投資國家都在進行投資。我們在沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋、卡達以及伊拉克的部分市場都擁有強大的市場地位，這得益於我們簽訂的長期協議。因此，我預計我們未來兩個季度（2026 年第一季和第二季）的營收和出貨量將與 2025 年最後兩季基本持平。

The only noticeable news is a probable uptick of drilling activity in Saudi. This is still to be confirmed, but probably during the second quarter of '26. And maybe later in the year, we will see comeback of rigs in Saudi, which reduced rigs during 2025. So we'll monitor that and there could be a potential upside, but for the second half of this year on the OCTG side.

唯一值得關注的消息是沙烏地阿拉伯的鑽探活動可能會增加。這仍有待證實，但可能在 2026 年第二季。或許今年晚些時候，我們會看到沙烏地阿拉伯的鑽井平台重新出現，而沙烏地阿拉伯在 2025 年減少了鑽井平台的數量。所以我們會密切關注，今年下半年油田管材方面可能會有上漲空間。

Marco Cristofori, Intesa.

Marco Cristofori，Intesa。

Question, which relate on shale oil, shale industry in the US let's say, that since the end of 2023, we have seen declining rig count, but a growing crude output. So -- and also breakeven are going strongly down according to oil measure. So do you think that this plan could allow a further increase of your volumes in the US. And secondly, there are several insights that the shale in the US could reach a plateau in the second half of 2027. So how do you see the evolution of the shale industry in the US.

問題與頁岩油、美國頁岩油產業有關，假設自 2023 年底以來，鑽井平台數量下降，但原油產量卻在成長。所以——而且根據石油指標來看，損益平衡點也在大幅下降。所以你認為這項計畫能否進一步提高你們在美國的銷售量？其次，有幾項研究表明，美國頁岩氣產量可能在 2027 年下半年達到高峰。那麼，您如何看待美國頁岩油產業的發展演變？

Yeah. Thank you, Marco. I would ask to Guillermo to give a view on the evolution of this. In the question of plateau, frankly, I wouldn't -- I don't think we are able to predict plateau. It will depend on the overall price of oil around and there are many issues that are unpredictable, concerning the major production region and so on and so forth.

是的。謝謝你，馬可。我想請吉列爾莫談談他對這發展歷程的看法。關於平台期的問題，坦白說，我不會——我認為我們無法預測平台期。這將取決於周圍的石油整體價格，而且還有許多無法預測的問題，例如主要產油區等等。

So US, the plateau has been forecasted in the past at a lower level, and it's continuously surprising us with higher. And so I wouldn't bet on where this number would be in '27. Guillermo, on the question of the....

所以，美國過去曾預測疫情高峰會達到較低水平，但疫情高峰卻不斷超出預期。所以，我不會打賭這個數字在 2027 年會是多少。吉列爾莫，關於…這個問題

Yeah. I mean, as you said, I mean, the operators in the US have been increasing the efficiency and productivity, big time in the last two years. So with a much less number of rigs, they are not only producing more, but they are drilling almost the same amount of wells, and they are even going longer. So we are seeing much less rigs, but more production and slightly reduction in the consumption of OCTG compared to what we used -- I mean so there is no such a correlation that we used to have with the rig count.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所說，在過去的兩年裡，美國的營運商的效率和生產力都大幅提高了。因此，他們用更少的鑽井平台不僅提高了產量，而且鑽井數量幾乎相同，甚至鑽井時間也更長了。所以我們看到鑽井平台數量少了很多，但產量卻增加了，而且與過去相比，油田管材的消耗量略有下降——我的意思是，鑽井平台數量與產量之間不再存在那種相關性。

Now looking forward, we still see kind of a stable market for 2026 compared to 2025. We may see some reduction of activity slight reduction in oil, offset by an increase of activity in gas. And as Paolo said, difficult to predict about production. Everybody is talking about plateauing, but's at the same time, we see them becoming more creative and producing more oil from each well with the new technologies in terms of fracking, but also in terms of the level of chemicals they use.

展望未來，我們認為 2026 年的市場與 2025 年相比仍會比較穩定。我們可能會看到石油活動略有減少，但天然氣活動會增加，從而抵消部分減少。正如保羅所說，產量很難預測。大家都在談論產量停滯，但同時，我們看到他們變得更有創造力，利用水力壓裂等新技術，以及減少化學品的使用量，從每口井中生產更多的石油。

So we need to see up to where the innovation of the industry can go. But clearly, if we are not at the peak, we are not far from it with this level of activity and rig count -- the other variable that we need to take into account is that in the last two years, there has been a reduction of drilled but uncomplete wells. So some of the increase of the activity was also coming from wells that were previously drilled but not completed. The level of inventories of those wells has gone -- has come to kind of a bottom, so we don't expect much more of this in the coming quarters.

所以我們需要看看這個產業的創新能發展到什麼程度。但顯然，即使我們還沒有達到峰值，以目前的活動水平和鑽機數量來看，我們也離峰值不遠了——我們需要考慮的另一個變量是，在過去的兩年裡，已鑽但未完工的油井數量有所減少。因此，部分活動增加也來自以前鑽探但尚未完工的油井。這些油井的庫存水準已降至最低點，因此我們預計未來幾季不會再出現這種情況。

Kevin Roger, Kepler Cheuvreux.

凱文·羅傑，開普勒·舍弗勒。

I just have 1 question to follow on the US and all those stories on the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. And notably on the recent news flow that the Trump administration could reduce the tariff on steel and aluminum. I was wondering if you comment a bit more on what should be the implication on your side from a potential reduction on the tariff for example, we come back to a 50% steel tariff to 25% or something like that. Just to understand the potential impact from the US OCTG market if we move in that direction, please?

關於美國以及川普政府實施的關稅政策，我只有一個問題想跟進。尤其值得注意的是，最近的新聞報道稱，川普政府可能會降低鋼鐵和鋁的關稅。我想請您再詳細談談，如果關稅降低，例如從 50% 降至 25% 之類的，對您這邊會產生什麼影響。請問，如果我們朝這個方向發展，美國油田管材市場可能會產生什麼潛在影響？

Thank you, Kevin. Well, we don't know, which is -- I mean we only have an article on the newspaper, we do not have a written definition. If I should say the issue may come from the impact of the US economy of the extension of the 232 to the derivative of steel. There are many products derivative of steel, which means that they contain steel there are basically affect price level in the States, but are not having a beneficial impact of industry in the States that is not producing this.

謝謝你，凱文。嗯，我們不知道，我的意思是，我們只有報紙上的一篇文章，我們沒有書面定義。如果我應該說，問題可能源自於 232 條延伸至鋼鐵衍生性商品對美國經濟的影響。鋼鐵衍生產品有很多，這意味著它們含有鋼鐵，這些產品基本上會影響美國的價格水平，但對美國不生產這些產品的行業並沒有產生有益的影響。

Now this universe of derivatives increased so much that I think the comment of Trump maybe are just indicating a willingness to reshape what is considered derivative and what is not. Remember, there has been stages of expansion of the definition of derivative 1,2,and before going to the third, is considering would be, let's say, not creating undue distress in the pricing system.

如今衍生性商品領域已經發展到如此龐大的程度，我認為川普的言論或許只是顯示他願意重新定義什麼是衍生性商品，什麼不是衍生性商品。請記住，衍生性商品的定義已經經歷了擴展階段 1、2，在進入第三階段之前，需要考慮的是，比如說，不會對定價系統造成不必要的困擾。

So this is what I understood. They will reconsider the derivatives more than reconsidering the level of 50 to 25because this is a key component of the 232. I don't see this to change.

這就是我理解的內容。他們會更傾向於重新考慮衍生性商品，而不是重新考慮 50 到 25 的水平，因為這是 232 的關鍵組成部分。我認為這種情況不會改變。

Jamie Franklin, Jefferies.

傑米·富蘭克林，傑富瑞集團。

So firstly, and apologies if I missed answer to this one. But I just wanted to focus on your other business segments. Obviously, a big revenue and margin recovery in 1Q driven by your fracking and coiled tubing services in Argentina.

首先，如果我錯過了這個問題的答案，請見諒。但我只想專注於你們的其他業務領域。顯然，第一季營收和利潤率的大幅回升主要得益於您在阿根廷的水力壓裂和連續油管服務。

Can you just talk about how you expect that to trend through 2026 and whether we can expect a similar contribution in the first and second quarter and beyond that? And then the second question, just if you could give us an update on your CapEx expectations for 2026 and kind of an outline of where you expect to be spending.

您能否談談您預計到 2026 年這一趨勢將如何發展，以及我們是否可以預期在第一季和第二季以及之後會有類似的貢獻？第二個問題是，您能否向我們介紹您對 2026 年資本支出的預期，並大致概述您預期的支出方向。

Thank you, Jamie. On the oil and gas, as I was saying during the second part of 2026, we are considering that the activity of oil and gas fracking should go up. The drilling activity will also pick up later on. There will be more need to frac. We are just bringing in one additional set of fracking because we are anticipating some increase by the end of the year.

謝謝你，傑米。關於石油和天然氣，正如我在 2026 年下半年所說，我們認為石油和天然氣水力壓裂活動應該會增加。鑽探活動稍後也會增加。將會有更多人需要進行分餾。我們只是增設一套壓裂設備，因為我們預計到年底產量會有所成長。

And this should drive some increase on our activity in the second half of '26. This is basically the position on this. The other point, CapEx -- I mean, CapEx will be more or less in line with the -- what we have been spending in 2025.

這應該會推動我們在 2026 年下半年的活動成長。這就是我們對此事的立場。另一點是資本支出——我的意思是，資本支出到 2025 年將與我們一直以來的支出大致持平。

Looking at the forecast, we see even something lower -- but I imagine that during the year, new need may come out. Usually, there is something that is coming out from specific intervention. So there will be something lower when we look at this from a planning point of view today. But maybe in the end, we will be close to the level of today.

從預測來看，實際需求甚至更低——但我認為在這一年中，可能會出現新的需求。通常情況下，特定的干預措施會帶來一些結果。所以，從今天的規劃角度來看，這個數字會更低一些。但或許最終，我們會接近今天的水準。

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，我不再提出其他問題。現在我謹將會議交還給喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞，請他作閉幕致詞。

Well, thank you, Gigi, and thank you all for joining us today. Bye.

謝謝你，吉吉，也謝謝大家今天能來參加我們的節目。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。