Tenaris SA (TS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second-quarter 2025 Tenaris SA earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Tenaris SA 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係官 Giovanni Sardagna。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris's 2025 second quarter conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information during the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call. With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Carlos Gomez Alzaga, our newly appointed Chief Financial Officer; Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer; and Guillermo Moreno, President of our US Operations.

謝謝你，Gigi，歡迎參加 Tenaris 2025 年第二季電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將在通話期間討論前瞻性訊息，並且我們的實際結果可能與通話期間表達或暗示的結果有所不同。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Paolo Rocca、我們新任命的財務長 Carlos Gomez Alzaga、我們的營運長 Gabriel Podskubka 和我們的美國營運總裁 Guillermo Moreno。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our second-quarter sales reached $3.1 billion, down 7% year on year, but up 6% sequentially, mainly reflecting an increase in North American OCTG prices and stable volumes. Average selling prices in our Tubes operating segment decreased 2% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year but increased 6% sequentially.

在將電話轉給 Paolo 聽取他的開場白之前，我想簡要評論一下我們的季度業績。我們第二季的銷售額達到 31 億美元，年減 7%，但環比成長 6%，主要反映了北美油井管價格上漲和銷售穩定。我們的管材營運部門的平均售價與去年同期相比下降了 2%，但比上一季成長了 6%。

Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 5% sequentially to $733 million, with our EBITDA margin for the quarter close to 24%. Our margins remain in line with those of the previous quarter. Our cost of sales also rose 5%, mainly reflecting product mix differences and higher tariff payments. With operating cash flow of $673 million and capital expenditure of $135 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was $538 million. After a dividend payment of $600 million in May and share buybacks of $237 million, our net cash position amounted to $3.7 billion at the end of the quarter.

本季我們的 EBITDA 環比成長 5% 至 7.33 億美元，本季我們的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 24%。我們的利潤率與上一季持平。我們的銷售成本也上漲了 5%，主要反映了產品結構差異和更高的關稅。本季我們的營運現金流為 6.73 億美元，資本支出為 1.35 億美元，自由現金流為 5.38 億美元。在 5 月支付了 6 億美元的股息併回購了 2.37 億美元的股票後，我們的淨現金狀況在本季末達到了 37 億美元。

Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我請保羅講幾句話。

Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. Our results in the second quarter pointed to the solid industrial and commercial position that Tenaris has built, serving its wide range of customers around the world and the competitive differentiation we have established in key markets. Even as drilling activity in several areas of the world has slowed, our sales rose sequentially together with our EBITDA and net income. Our free cash flow amounted to a solid $538 million, while our shareholder distributions between dividend payments and share buybacks amounted to $837 million during the quarter.

謝謝你，喬瓦尼，大家早安。我們第二季的業績表明，泰納瑞斯已建立了穩固的工業和商業地位，為全球廣泛的客戶提供服務，並在關鍵市場建立了競爭優勢。儘管全球多個地區的鑽井活動放緩，但我們的銷售額、EBITDA 和淨收入仍持續成長。我們的自由現金流達到了 5.38 億美元，而本季股東在股利支付和股票回購之間的分配額達到了 8.37 億美元。

There is an increase in the US Section 232 tariff on the import of all steel product from 50% -- from 25% to 50% and the ongoing tariff negotiations has increased market uncertainty. As countries negotiate the so-called reciprocal tariff, no country apart from the UK has so far been able to negotiate how the Section 232 tariff will be applied. We expect that the current broad-based approach will eventually be modified towards a more specific product-based approach, which takes into account market factors and consider differential tariff and quotas for some countries.

美國根據《232條款》對所有鋼鐵產品進口徵收的關稅從25%上調至50%，正在進行的關稅談判增加了市場的不確定性。當各國就所謂的互惠關稅進行談判時，除英國外，迄今為止沒有任何國家能夠就如何實施第 232 條關稅進行談判。我們預計，目前的廣泛方法最終將被修改為更具體的基於產品的方法，該方法將考慮到市場因素並考慮對某些國家實施差別關稅和配額。

The Section 232 tariffs and the ongoing negotiations will change the competitive environment, favoring more utilization of available domestic capacity and fewer imports. Over time, there will impact on prices once excess inventories are drawn down and imports are reduced from the high levels we have seen in the first half of the year.

第 232 條關稅和正在進行的談判將改變競爭環境，有利於更多地利用現有的國內產能並減少進口。隨著時間的推移，一旦過剩庫存減少，進口量從上半年的高水準下降，價格就會受到影響。

Tenaris, with its strong US domestic production base, including the world's most efficient seamless pipe mill at Bay City and its Koppel steel production facility, supported by its global industrial system, remains well placed to continue serving its US customer with its highly differentiated RigDirect(r) service.

泰納瑞斯擁有強大的美國國內生產基地，包括位於貝城的全球最高效的無縫管廠和 Koppel 鋼材生產設施，並由其全球工業體系提供支持，因此，泰納瑞斯有能力繼續透過其高度差異化的 RigDirect(r) 服務為美國客戶提供服務。

Our sales this quarter included the successful delivery of pipes and coatings to a wide number of complex line pipe projects around the world. These include Equinor Raia project in Brazil, ConocoPhillips' Willow project in Alaska, Shell's Bonga project in Nigeria, Azule Ndongo project in Angola, and Chevron Leviathan project in the Mediterranean.

本季我們的銷售包括成功向世界各地的大量複雜管道項目交付管道和塗料。其中包括巴西的 Equinor Raia 專案、阿拉斯加的康菲石油公司的 Willow 專案、尼日利亞的 Bonga 專案、安哥拉的 Azule Ndongo 專案以及地中海的雪佛龍 Leviathan 專案。

Looking forward, we will have a lower delivery to offshore line pipe projects until a new wave of projects progress to the development phase in 2026. One such project will be the GranMorgu project in Suriname. In addition to our line pipe and coating award, we have received the award for the supply of casing and tubing for the project. Key to this achievement was our offer of service, which we will carry out from a base we are now setting up in Suriname.

展望未來，我們將減少對海上管線專案的交付，直到 2026 年新一波專案進入開發階段。蘇利南的 GranMorgu 計畫就是這樣一個計畫。除了管線管和塗層獎項外，我們還獲得了此專案套管和油管供應獎項。這項成就的關鍵在於我們提供的服務，我們將從目前在蘇利南設立的基地進行這項服務。

In the fast-growing frontier development of the Guyana-Suriname Basin, we have set up local service basis to support the operation of ExxonMobil, of TotalEnergies and other customers in the region. Another major developing region where we have been able to make a difference is the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. Here, as well as casing and tubing, we also supply fracking and coiled tubing services and are instrumental in developing the pipeline infrastructure that will enable the oil and gas to reach global market.

在快速發展的圭亞那-蘇利南盆地前沿開發領域，我們建立了本地服務基地，並支援埃克森美孚、道達爾能源等客戶在該地區的業務運作。我們能夠有所作為的另一個主要發展中地區是阿根廷的瓦卡穆埃爾塔頁岩區。在這裡，除了套管和油管，我們還提供水力壓裂和連續油管服務，並在開發使石油和天然氣能夠進入全球市場的管道基礎設施方面發揮重要作用。

During this third quarter, we will complete most of the deliveries for the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline that will build a crude export capacity to a new deepwater port in Puerto Rosales. Early next year, we should also deliver the pipes for the Duplicar Norte pipeline that will connect the Northern development in Vaca Muerta to the main crude export pipelines.

在第三季度，我們將完成 Vaca Muerta Sur 管道的大部分交付，該管道將為羅薩萊斯港的新深水港建立原油出口能力。明年初，我們還將交付 Duplicar Norte 管道，該管道將連接瓦卡穆埃爾塔的北部開發區和主要的原油出口管道。

In Mexico, Pemex has successfully issued a $12 billion financing facility this week. This is an important step that should allow Pemex to increase its current low level of operation and pay down some of its supplier debt. We look forward to supplying a higher level of operation under our current contract.

在墨西哥，Pemex 本週成功發行了 120 億美元的融資工具。這是一個重要的舉措，將使 Pemex 能夠提高其目前較低的營運水準並償還部分供應商債務。我們期待根據現有合約提供更高水準的營運。

With oil prices around $65 a barrel and drilling activity in the United States and Canada is lowering, our sales in these countries remain relatively resilient due to our solid customer portfolio. They're focused on improving operational efficiency, which extended the lateral length for which they appreciate our seamless product and RigDirect(r) service.

由於油價在每桶 65 美元左右，且美國和加拿大的鑽井活動正在減少，因此由於我們擁有穩固的客戶組合，我們在這些國家的銷售仍然保持相對彈性。他們專注於提高營運效率，從而延長水平長度，因此他們非常欣賞我們的無縫產品和 RigDirect(r) 服務。

We are ready now to take any questions you may have.

我們現在已準備好回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan Securities LLC.

（操作員指示） Arun Jayaram，摩根大通證券有限責任公司。

Yes, Paolo, good morning. I was wondering if you could comment on your thoughts and outlook for the second half of 2025, just given some of the things you cited, tariff impacts, some activity perhaps going down a little bit in the US. But give us a sense of how you think about volume trends and margin trends for the second half.

是的，保羅，早安。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您對 2025 年下半年的想法和展望，考慮到您提到的一些因素，例如關稅影響，美國的一些活動可能會略有下降。但請讓我們了解一下您對下半年銷售趨勢和利潤趨勢的看法。

Well, thank you, Arun. I think it's -- I mean, there are many moving parts in -- that are affecting, let's say, the second half. We have visibility on the third quarter, but obviously less visibility on the fourth. What we can say for the third quarter, we expect lower sales on our part due to different factors. Basically, we will have lower invoicing in our fracking operation. We have a kind of black space for three months due to the programming of the companies for their operation of fracking in Vaca Muerta.

好吧，謝謝你，阿倫。我認為——我的意思是，有很多活動因素——正在影響下半年。我們對第三季的前景有清晰的了解，但對第四季的前景顯然了解不多。對於第三季度，我們可以說，由於各種因素，我們預計銷售額將會下降。基本上，我們的水力壓裂作業的發票金額會更低。由於各公司對瓦卡穆埃爾塔水力壓裂作業進行規劃，我們經歷了三個月的空白期。

This is something that will, to some extent, reduce slightly our invoicing. We also -- after an important wave of delivering of our line pipe, we will have somewhat lower shipment of line pipe during the quarter. Operation in North America will be reflecting some increase in price, which we expect, but also some containment of the activity and the rigs because, let's say, price of oil is today what it is.

這會在一定程度上減少我們的發票金額。我們也—在我們的管線管交付的一個重要浪潮之後，我們本季的管線管出貨量將略有下降。北美的營運將反映出價格的某種上漲，這是我們預期的，但同時也反映出活動和鑽井平台的一定程度的限制，因為，假設今天的油價就是這樣。

Even if I compare with our vision three months ago, three months ago, we were more concerned about the impact of a potential recession and lower price of oil. Today, looking at the forecast for the economy worldwide and the perception of the market, we would expect the price of oil to stay around $65. In this environment, there shouldn't be a strong reduction in the rig count. So we do not expect this.

即使與三個月前的願景相比，三個月前，我們更擔心潛在的經濟衰退和油價下跌的影響。今天，從全球經濟預測和市場看法來看，我們預計油價將維持在 65 美元左右。在這種環境下，鑽井數量不應該大幅減少。所以我們並不期待這一點。

In North America, more flection in Canada because of seasonal reason. And in the US, in our view, will be compensated by some more activity in Mexico. So overall, we expect lower sales, especially in the third quarter in the range of the high single digit for our invoicing. In the fourth quarter, it is more difficult to predict to understand which will be the dynamic of prices. There are tariffs that has been raised on June 4, for the 232 up to 50%, almost for every country, excluding UK. And the negotiations that are underway today are mostly focusing on the reciprocal tariffs, but are not touching on the 232.

在北美，由於季節原因，加拿大的彈性更大。我們認為，美國的影響將透過墨西哥的更多活動得到彌補。因此，整體而言，我們預期銷售額會下降，尤其是第三季度，我們的發票金額將下降至高個位數。第四季的價格動態將更加難以預測。6 月 4 日起，除英國外，幾乎所有國家都對 232 國提高了關稅，稅率最高可達 50%。目前正在進行的談判主要集中在互惠關稅上，但並未涉及232條款。

If this situation is not addressed with a more specific product by product or quota for specific sector in the coming months, inevitably, prices in turn, domestic price in the United States will reflect this. And this will impact in our sales. But today, it's difficult to forecast which will be the impact on the fourth quarter. Also in the third quarter, our slight reduction in sales will take into consideration some repair and maintenance that we usually perform during August. This is our outcome as far as, let's say, overall top line is concerned.

如果未來幾個月不針對具體產品或特定行業制定配額來解決這個問題，美國國內價格將不可避免地反映這一點。這將影響我們的銷售。但目前還很難預測這會對第四季產生什麼影響。此外，在第三季度，我們的銷售額略有下降，這將考慮到我們通常在八月進行的一些維修和保養。就整體營收而言，這就是我們的成果。

Okay. That's helpful. It kind of sounds like your commentary is pretty similar, maybe different moving pieces with what you outlined last quarter in terms of the outlook. Paolo, I was wondering if you could highlight about your project pipeline as you think about 2026 relative to 2025. You highlighted Suriname as a new opportunity for Tenaris. But how does the major or large project pipeline look in 2026, thinking about places like the Vaca Muerta?

好的。這很有幫助。聽起來您的評論非常相似，但可能與您上個季度概述的展望有所不同。保羅，我想知道您是否可以重點介紹您關於 2026 年與 2025 年相比的專案管道。您強調蘇利南對 Tenaris 來說是一個新的機會。但是，考慮到瓦卡穆埃爾塔這樣的地方，2026 年主要或大型專案管道會是什麼樣子呢？

On this, I would like to have Gabriel to give you a view of how we see, let's say, our load into '26 and what we can do compared to '25. Gabriel?

關於這一點，我想讓加布里埃爾向你們介紹我們如何看待26年的負荷，以及與25年相比我們可以做些什麼。加布里埃爾？

Yes. Thanks, Paolo. Good morning, Arun. To give you an overall perspective of the offshore market, which is an important driver for the pipeline business and also for the OCTG business in this segment, I would say that the market dynamic is overall positive. We don't see an immediate effect of the deteriorated market environment in drilling activity. As a matter of fact, the deepwater drilling rigs are quite resilient at very good historical levels.

是的。謝謝，保羅。早安，阿倫。為了讓您全面了解海上市場，我認為市場動態總體上是正面的，海上市場是管道業務和油井管業務的重要驅動力。我們並未看到市場環境惡化對鑽井活動有直接影響。事實上，深水鑽井平台的彈性相當大，處於非常好的歷史水準。

And we are working with our customers on many new projects. Some of them are being delayed in the FIDs, but we are confident that in the next few months, they will be sanctioned. So overall, the context, I would say, is positive. Within this context, we have been building and continue to build an important backlog in this strategic segment, Paolo.and you commented on Suriname, where we just got awarded drilling campaign for OCTG to cover the needs of casing and tubing for these 36 wells that Total will develop in this initial phase of deepwater development. Customer has standardized on Dopeless(r) technologies, and we are getting ready building our service base in country. This is in addition to the award of pipeline and coated that we commented in our prior call. So we are building an important backlog.

我們正在與客戶合作許多新專案。其中一些項目在最終投資決定中被推遲，但我們相信，在接下來的幾個月裡，它們將獲得批准。所以總的來說，我認為形勢是正面的。在此背景下，我們一直在建立並將繼續建立這一戰略領域的重要訂單，Paolo。您對蘇利南的情況進行了評論，我們剛剛贏得了油井專用管的鑽探項目，以滿足道達爾在深水開發初始階段將開發的 36 口井的套管和油管需求。客戶已經對 Dopeless(r) 技術進行了標準化，我們正準備在國內建立我們的服務基礎。這是對我們之前電話會議中評論的管道和塗層獎項的補充。因此，我們正在建立一個重要的積壓工作。

Also this quarter, we booked deepwater pipeline in Brazil for Petrobras Buzios 11 project. And we also have been awarded OCTG, needs of Chevron for their deepwater campaign in Agbami in Nigeria. So overall, I would say that we are building an important backlog into 2026. As Paolo mentioned, we had a high concentration of pipelines in the first half of 2025. So our pipeline offshore deliveries in the second half will be slightly lower, but we believe with great confidence that 2026 will be -- we will have an important contribution overall on the offshore segment.

本季度，我們也為巴西國家石油公司的 Buzios 11 計畫預訂了巴西深水管道。此外，我們還獲得了雪佛龍公司在尼日利亞阿格巴米深水作業所需的油井管。所以總的來說，我想說我們正在為 2026 年累積重要的積壓工作。正如 Paolo 所提到的，2025 年上半年我們的管線集中度很高。因此，我們下半年的海上管道交付量將略有下降，但我們非常有信心，到 2026 年，我們將對海上領域做出重要貢獻。

Thank you, Gabriel. Just to add that our position in this segment after the acquisition of Shawcor, considering the different plants that can operate in welded and seamless in different parts of the world, plus the global deployment of Shawcor and coating, a formidable structure for addressing and assuring short lead time, competitive offer quality to our clients, I mean this is -- the acquisition of Shawcor really gave us -- has put us on a different perspective for serving our clients. And I think we are capturing the benefit of this.

謝謝你，加布里埃爾。補充一點，在收購 Shawcor 之後，我們在這個領域的地位得到了提升，考慮到世界各地可以生產焊接和無縫產品的不同工廠，再加上 Shawcor 和塗層的全球部署，一個強大的結構可以解決並確保短交貨時間，為我們的客戶提供有競爭力的質量，我的意思是 - 收購 Shawcor 確實給了我們 - 讓我們以不同的視角為我們服務 - 客戶服務。我認為我們正在從中獲益。

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

亞歷山德羅·波齊（Alessandro Pozzi），Mediobanca。

Hi. Good afternoon and thank you for taking the questions. The first one is, again, on the outlook for the second half of 2025. You indicated where sales are going to go. Maybe if you can add some additional color on margins in Q3 and in Q4? Because I think in Q3, maybe you can still benefit a little bit from the lagged effect with the Pipe Logix, but then you will feel the full impact of tariffs as well.

你好。下午好，感謝您回答問題。第一個問題同樣是關於 2025 年下半年的展望。您指出了銷售的去向。也許您可以在 Q3 和 Q4 的邊距上添加一些額外的顏色？因為我認為在第三季度，也許你仍然可以從 Pipe Logix 的滯後效應中受益一點，但隨後你也會感受到關稅的全部影響。

And I believe it should be around $140 million per quarter. I'm not sure if you have some remedies in place to reduce the amount of impact from tariffs and/or whether the higher prices will be able to offset this? Because if we look at the Pipe Logix that was out yesterday, it was just a small increase month on month.

我認為每季應該在 1.4 億美元左右。我不確定您是否採取了一些補救措施來減少關稅的影響，以及/或更高的價格是否能夠抵消這種影響？因為如果我們看一下昨天發布的 Pipe Logix，它只是環比略有增長。

And I mean, maybe we will see stronger prices going forward. But your thoughts on margins would be very appreciated. And the second question is on South America. I believe sales were down in Q2. Can you give us maybe the outlook for sales in Argentina and explain why maybe the rig count overall in Argentina is still rather flat despite all the investments in Vaca Muerta? Thank you.

我的意思是，也許我們將來會看到更高的價格。但我們非常感謝您就利潤率提出的想法。第二個問題是關於南美洲的。我認為第二季度的銷售額有所下降。您能否向我們介紹一下阿根廷的銷售前景，並解釋為什麼儘管在瓦卡穆埃爾塔進行了大量投資，但阿根廷的鑽機總數仍然相當平穩？謝謝。

Thank you, Alessandro. Now on the first point, first of all, you are right that the 50% tariff of the Section 232 is affecting us on a dimension that is close to what you are saying. Remember, last time, we were saying with 25%, around $70 million per quarter. Today, with increase of the tariff to 50%, this number could become higher in the range of the $140 million, $150 million for a quarter.

謝謝你，亞歷山德羅。關於第一點，首先，您說得對，第 232 條規定的 50% 關稅對我們的影響與您所說的差不多。記住，上次我們說的是 25%，每季約 7,000 萬美元。如今，隨著關稅增加到 50%，這個數字可能會更高，達到每季 1.4 億美元、1.5 億美元。

Now let me add two considerations. First of all, we don't know where the negotiation with Mexico, Canada, Argentina will end up, and if there will be some consideration like in the case of UK for changing or adapting or modifying by product or by country, some of the consideration regarding the tariff of the 232. We do not know, but we think that would be -- may be a possibility.

現在讓我補充兩點考慮。首先，我們不知道與墨西哥、加拿大、阿根廷的談判最終會如何結束，以及是否會像英國那樣根據產品或國家進行改變、調整或修改，以及232關稅的一些考慮。我們不知道，但我們認為這可能是可能的。

Because in the end, the relation within the USMCA and the relation in Argentina may justify specific negotiation that include some aspect related to the 232 automotive, steel and not only on the reciprocal. This is the first consideration that may change this. Second consideration, well, we can react in terms of allocation, organization of our production flows. And this tariff is getting in our cost of sale gradually because of the inventory.

因為最終，USMCA 內部的關係和阿根廷的關係可能證明具體的談判是合理的，其中包括與 232 汽車、鋼鐵相關的一些方面，而不僅僅是互惠方面。這是可能改變這一狀況的第一個考慮。第二個考慮，我們可以在生產流程的分配和組織方面做出反應。由於庫存，該關稅正逐漸計入我們的銷售成本。

Some of these tariffs are affecting our steel bar coming into the US. There is -- it takes time to flow through our inventory to get into our cost of sales. So you should also consider that the figure we are mentioning are not getting straight into the next quarter, but only gradually into this. And also that we have, let's say, alternatives, or we can, to some extent, limit part of the impact of this.

其中一些關稅影響了我們進入美國的鋼筋。是的－我們的庫存需要時間來流轉，才能計入銷售成本。因此，您還應該考慮到，我們提到的數字並不是直接進入下個季度，而是逐漸進入這個季度。而且我們還有其他選擇，或者我們可以在某種程度上限制部分影響。

And then we go to the impact in prices. You are right. Yesterday, the Pipe Logix comes out with a very modest increase. But this is a result also of the very high level of import that were unleashed by the elimination of quota when the first round of 232 were introduced with 25%, but no quota. There has been imports in the United States from different sources, well above the level of quota.

然後我們來談談價格的影響。你是對的。昨天，Pipe Logix 的漲幅非常小。但這也是由於取消配額後進口量非常高的結果，當時第一輪引進了 232 種產品，進口額為 25%，但沒有配額。美國從不同來源進口的量遠超過配額水準。

There has been a resulting increase in inventory. These inventories are waiting on prices today and will do so for a while, but not forever. I think that after the increase in 232 on June 4 to 50%, some of this import gradually will be reduced. Today, there are many products on the sea, on the vessel coming into the US. But then the decision has to be taken that will affect September, October. And the coming months will be taken with a different scenario and different consideration, taking into consideration the higher level of tariff.

由此導致庫存增加。這些庫存正在等待今天的價格，並且會等待一段時間，但不會永遠等待。我認為，在6月4日232增加到50%之後，這部分進口量會逐漸減少。如今，有許多產品透過海上、船隻進入美國。但隨後必須做出影響九月和十月的決定。未來幾個月，我們將採取不同的情境和考慮，考慮到更高的關稅水準。

So prices, in my view, will go up or will do so gradually, but to some extent, inevitably over time. Difficult to predict if this will happen and exactly when, but prices will go -- will need to go up more than what has been done up to now. And this will also contribute to our margin. Having said this, what we can see is the margin for the next quarter, and we expect margin slightly below the margin of this quarter, but always in the range between 20% and 25%. Remember, this is let's say, where we were guiding last quarter, we will remain within this space between 20% and 25%, but lower than this quarter, slightly lower than this.

因此，我認為價格將會上漲，或者說會逐漸上漲，但在某種程度上，隨著時間的推移，價格不可避免地會上漲。很難預測這是否會發生以及具體時間，但價格將會上漲——需要比迄今為止的水平上漲更多。這也將有助於我們的利潤。話雖如此，我們可以看到下一季的利潤率，我們預計利潤率將略低於本季的利潤率，但始終在 20% 至 25% 之間。請記住，這就是我們上個季度的指導，我們將保持在 20% 到 25% 之間的範圍內，但低於本季度，略低於這個水平。

In the fourth quarter, for the reasons that I mentioned, I think it's more difficult to have an estimate, a reasonable estimate of what will happen. Most will depend from the decision that the importer may take and the reflection on price. In my view, having duty for steel and pipe and bars going up 50% will have an impact on the price of Pipe Logix, even in an environment in which the rig count is not very aggressively increasing, even if it stay or it goes down slowly as we anticipated, there should be impact on prices. This is -- would be logical to happen.

在第四季度，由於我提到的原因，我認為對將要發生的事情做出估計、做出合理的估計更加困難。大部分取決於進口商可能做出的決定和對價格的考慮。在我看來，鋼材、管材和棒材的關稅上漲 50% 將對 Pipe Logix 的價格產生影響，即使在鑽機數量沒有大幅增加的環境下，即使它保持不變或如我們預期的那樣緩慢下降，也會對價格產生影響。這是合乎邏輯的。

Thank you. And on South America?

謝謝。那麼南美洲呢？

Second question, if it is okay for you with the first one. On South America, South America, you're right that there has been a containment, I would say, of the oil. One the situation in which the rig count has been -- went down slightly has been Argentina, as you say. The point in Argentina is that the southern part of the country, there has been a reduction, a divestiture from YPF and other companies of their operation in the southern part of the country. And this turned out into a reduction of the number of rigs operating on one side.

第二個問題，您是否可以回答第一個問題。關於南美洲，南美洲，您說得對，我想說，石油已經受到遏制。正如您所說，阿根廷的鑽井數量略有下降。阿根廷的重點是，該國南部地區的業務已經減少，YPF 和其他公司已經剝離了在該國南部地區的業務。而這導致一側作業鑽機數量的減少。

On the other side, there is -- the company is still having a cautious approach in organizing their investment in Vaca Muerta. The access to finance has limitation. Some operation has been important. For instance, it has been possible to finance the pipeline in Vaca Muerta South for bringing oil to the coast. And this is an important program with involving financing for around $2 billion.

另一方面，該公司在組織對瓦卡穆埃爾塔的投資時仍採取謹慎的態度。融資管道受到限制。一些操作非常重要。例如，可以資助建造瓦卡穆埃爾塔南部的管道，將石油輸送到海岸。這是一個重要的項目，涉及融資約20億美元。

Also, there has been other financing operation for local company. But still, the country risk is above 700 points. It's not exactly easy for local player to finance all the operation in line with the more optimistic expectation that we may have maybe six months ago. Today, nothing changed in the positive view of the development of Vaca Muerta for gas and for oil. But the pace of operation, development, and growth is slower than we expect.

此外，也為本地公司開展了其他融資業務。但國家風險仍在700點以上。對於本地企業來說，要按照我們六個月前可能抱持的更為樂觀的預期來為整個營運提供資金並不容易。如今，人們對瓦卡穆埃爾塔天然氣和石油開發的積極看法沒有任何改變。但營運、發展和成長的步伐比我們預期的要慢。

Also, price of oil, there was a moment in which company were more afraid of a price of oil between $60 -- $55, $60. And this would have clearly had a negative impact, especially in company like the local company in Argentina that are depending very much on their cash flow to be eligible for financing. I think that this is -- the situation is improving. Still, the country risk is important.

此外，油價一度令企業擔心油價在 60 美元至 55 美元、60 美元之間。這顯然會產生負面影響，特別是對於像阿根廷當地公司這樣嚴重依賴現金流來獲得融資資格的公司。我認為情況正在改善。儘管如此，國家風險仍然很重要。

On the other side, the devaluation of the local currency in the last month that has devaluated by around 10% is reducing cost. So it's also acting in a positive way to -- in the project -- in the profitability of the project and from the cost side of the operation. So I'm confident that Vaca Muerta will continue to expand, increasing demand drilling over time. But in this semester and in this month, what we are seeing is a reduction of rigs because of the South and a very slow movement in increasing rigs and fracking. This is part of the problem of the issue of the white space in our fracking operation until September.

另一方面，上個月當地貨幣貶值約10%，正在降低成本。因此，從專案的獲利能力和營運成本來看，它也發揮著積極的作用。因此，我相信瓦卡穆埃爾塔將繼續擴張，並隨著時間的推移增加鑽探需求。但在本學期和本月，我們看到由於南方的原因鑽井數量減少，而鑽井數量和水力壓裂數量的增加也非常緩慢。這是我們水力壓裂作業在九月之前出現空白問題的一部分。

Thank you very much. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

非常感謝。我很欣賞這個顏色。謝謝。

Sebastian Erskine, Rothschild & Co. Redburn.

賽巴斯蒂安‧厄斯金 (Sebastian Erskine)，羅斯柴爾德公司雷德伯恩分公司。

Yes, hi, good morning, Paolo and team. I'd like to start on the commentary around imports. Obviously, has remained an elevated level in the first half of the year, should step down in the second half. But kind of how much share gain can we expect by Tenaris and equivalent domestic producers for imports as a percentage of the mix? And I'm thinking about that in terms of kind of offsetting weaker volumes in the back half of the year, particularly in US land where the rig count remains under pressure.

是的，嗨，早上好，Paolo 和團隊。我想開始談論有關進口的問題。顯然，上半年一直維持在較高水平，下半年應該會回落。但是，我們可以預期 Tenaris 和同等國內生產商的進口份額佔總進口份額的多少呢？我考慮這樣做是為了抵消下半年石油產量的疲軟，特別是在美國本土，鑽井數量仍面臨壓力。

Well, overall, import represent a large share of demand in the US in the range of 40%. So let's say, if you imagine 50% tariff on 40% of the supply in a very large market, even in an environment in which the rig count should stay or go slightly down, we basically expect this. It will also depend from the price of oil. Obviously, it's affecting the cash flow. But even in an environment of relatively slowdown on rig, the impact on import of the tariff -- there will be impact on the prices. There will be some substitution.

總體而言，進口占美國需求的很大一部分，在 40% 左右。因此，假設您想像在一個非常大的市場中對 40% 的供應徵收 50% 的關稅，即使在鑽井數量保持不變或略有下降的環境下，我們基本上也預料到了這種情況。這也取決於油價。顯然，這影響了現金流。但即使在鑽井平台相對放緩的環境下，關稅對進口的影響也會對價格產生影響。將會有一些替代。

Now in terms of capacity, I think the domestic industry has the ability to increase the production, but the level of utilization is still is pretty high today in the different player on this in the seamless arena. And probably there is room for increasing utilization in the welded supply of OCTG, but welded supply is limited to a segment of the market and not to the entire market. These are the reasons why I think, over time, the price level in the US should go up.

現在就產能而言，我認為國內產業有能力提高產量，但目前無縫領域不同參與者的使用率仍然相當高。並且，油井管焊接供應的利用率可能還有提高的空間，但焊接供應僅限於部分市場，而不是整個市場。這些就是我認為隨著時間的推移，美國的物價水平應該會上漲的原因。

Really appreciate the color, Paolo. And then my second question on distributions, obviously, announcing the $1.2 billion authorization. It looks like you're front-loading the first tranche of $600 million. You completed nearly two-thirds of this. Would you be open to bringing forward the second tranche of repurchases, just given the cadence you've already achieved?

真的很欣賞這個顏色，保羅。然後我的第二個問題是關於分配的，顯然是宣布 12 億美元的授權。看起來您正在預付第一筆 6 億美元。您已完成其中近三分之二。考慮到您已經實現的節奏，您是否願意提前進行第二批回購？

Well, as you know, the Board approved two tranches of share buyback. And the second tranche will be considered in the Board meeting on October 29. But this has been approved, but anyway, this is what we expect. This will be considered again and very likely launch after the Board on October 29.

嗯，如您所知，董事會批准了兩批股票回購。第二筆款項將於10月29日的董事會會議上審議。但這已經獲得批准，但無論如何，這是我們所期望的。我們將再次考慮此事，並很可能在 10 月 29 日董事會會議後推出。

Thank you very much, Paolo. I'll hand it back now. Thank you.

非常感謝，保羅。我現在就把它還給我。謝謝。

Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

馬克·比安奇 (Marc Bianchi)，TD Cowen。

Hi, thank you. The first one is real quick. I just wanted to clarify, Paolo, on the third-quarter outlook, the high single-digit decline was a comment on sales or a comment on volume?

你好，謝謝。第一個真的很快。保羅，我只是想澄清一下，關於第三季度的展望，高個位數的下降是對銷售額的評論還是對銷量的評論？

It was a comment on sales.

這是對銷售的評論。

Okay. Thanks very much. The other question relates to supply chain. You talked about if there's potentially exceptions for USMCA and you could divert some of your supply -- steel supply from Mexico. Should we think about that as potentially removing the entire $140 million tariff headwind, or what's the opportunity there?

好的。非常感謝。另一個問題涉及供應鏈。您談到如果 USMCA 可能有例外，您可能會轉移部分供應——來自墨西哥的鋼鐵供應。我們是否應該認為這可能會消除整個 1.4 億美元的關稅阻力，或者這其中存在什麼機會？

No, no. The -- I mean, we can, first of all, expand as much as we can local production of steel. So the Koppel operation -- by the way, we had one accident in Koppel 1.5 months ago. We solved it, but we -- this, to some extent, reduced to some extent our availability of steel for a while. Now we will pick up again. So we will take advantage of this capacity as much as we can.

不，不。我的意思是，首先，我們可以盡可能擴大當地的鋼鐵生產。順便說一下，Koppel 的運營，一個半月前我們在 Koppel 發生過一次事故。我們解決了這個問題，但是，這在一定程度上暫時減少了我們的鋼材供應。現在我們重新開始。因此我們將盡可能地利用這項能力。

This is one component that contribute to the reduction of the tariff we pay on the bars and semis that are -- that we need to bring into the States to feed into our rolling mill in Bay City, in Ambridge. This is an action that will depend basically on our ability to operate at maximum capacity the Koppel facility. And we are also planning for the investment needed to strengthen this capability, but the investment will take a little more time to get in.

這是有助於降低我們為棒材和半成品支付的關稅的一個因素——我們需要將這些棒材和半成品運送到美國，然後送到我們位於貝城和安布里奇的軋鋼廠。這項行動主要取決於我們以最大容量運作 Koppel 工廠的能力。我們也正在規劃加強這項能力所需的投資，但投資還需要一些時間才能到位。

Second action is to see if we can cover with welded product some of the demand. And this also may contribute to compensate even if this is -- may have a higher cost for us, but could be a way of reducing the level of tariff that we may be paying on this. Still, this action will not change substantially a reality that we are today, there is to pay tariff -- high tariff from Canada, Mexico, Argentina, and Europe.

第二個行動是看看我們是否可以用焊接產品滿足部分需求。這也可能有助於補償，即使這可能會給我們帶來更高的成本，但這可能是降低我們為此支付的關稅水平的一種方式。然而，這項行動不會從根本上改變我們今天的現實，我們必須支付關稅——來自加拿大、墨西哥、阿根廷和歐洲的高關稅。

I think that over time, the negotiation with Mexico, Canada, Argentina, and Europe may also, like in the case of UK, address some specific product or some specific semi like the case or the bars that are not really produced in the States. So if something is not really produced in the States, I think it could be possible that the negotiation may modify or reduce this impact. These are the points that could help or be having an impact on the level of tariff that we are paying every quarter.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，與墨西哥、加拿大、阿根廷和歐洲的談判也可能像英國的情況一樣，解決一些特定產品或某些特定半成品（例如箱子或酒吧）的問題，而這些產品實際上並非在美國生產。因此，如果某種產品實際上不是在美國生產的，我認為談判可能會改變或減少這種影響。這些要點可能會對我們每季支付的關稅水準有所幫助或產生影響。

Got it. Got it. Thank you very much for that. The other question I had related to mix, you mentioned some of the pipeline work coming off and some open space in the frac business. And I would think that those are lower-margin parts of your business compared to OCTG. Can you just sort of talk about maybe how much of an impact that's having on third quarter or second half and how we should think about those coming back into the revenue profile eventually?

知道了。知道了。非常感謝。我的另一個問題與混合有關，您提到了一些管道工程的完成和壓裂業務中的一些開放空間。我認為與油井管相比，這些是你們業務中利潤較低的部分。您能否談談這對第三季或下半年的影響有多大，以及我們應該如何看待這些影響最終回到收入狀況？

Yes. Well, I will ask Gabriel because there are very different products here with very high margin and very much more competitive margin.

是的。好吧，我會問加布里埃爾，因為這裡有非常不同的產品，利潤率非常高，而且競爭力也更強。

Yes. In general, you mentioned the fracking business is a profitable margin. So that has an impact in the third quarter until we pick up that business in the fourth quarter. Then regarding the pipelines, the offshore pipelines that we were mentioning, either welded or seamless with an important coating component, they are also having important margins.

是的。總的來說，您提到水力壓裂業務是有利可圖的。因此，這會對第三季產生影響，直到我們在第四季度恢復該業務。然後關於管道，我們提到的海上管道，無論是焊接的還是無縫的，並且具有重要的塗層組件，它們也具有重要的利潤率。

They're typically higher than the average of Tenaris, while the onshore pipelines, the one that Paolo commented on Vaca Muerta, those that are kicking in, in the third, fourth quarter and the beginning of 2026. Those have welded onshore pipelines, have margins that are lower than the average. So we have moving parts. The ones that are with lower shipments in the second half are of those of higher margins that will pick up in 2026 again.

它們通常高於 Tenaris 的平均水平，而 Paolo 在 Vaca Muerta 評論的陸上管道將在第三季度、第四季度和 2026 年初投入使用。那些焊接陸上管道的公司的利潤率低於平均水平。所以我們有活動部件。下半年出貨量較低的產品往往是利潤率較高的產品，利潤率將在 2026 年再次回升。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

David Anderson, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的大衛安德森。

Hi, good morning, Paolo. I have a question on the Middle East. So it's probably directed toward Gabriel. I just want to -- I was curious how you see Middle East overall trending into 2026. Saudi has been slowing activity all year before may not pick up again until the end of next year. If I'm not mistaken, I think on the prior call, you said Saudi has been reducing its inventory pipe most of the year. So I'm curious about how you see kind of specifically how the Saudi market -- when do you start seeing the Saudi market start to improve from a pipe standpoint -- from a pipe ordering standpoint next year? And how do you see overall Middle East volumes trending '26 versus '25? Thank you.

你好，早安，保羅。我有一個關於中東的問題。所以它很可能是針對加布里埃爾的。我只是想——我很好奇您如何看待 2026 年中東的整體趨勢。沙烏地阿拉伯前一年的經濟活動一直在放緩，可能要到明年年底才會再回升。如果我沒記錯的話，我想在之前的電話會議上，您說沙烏地阿拉伯一年中的大部分時間都在減少庫存。所以我很好奇您如何看待沙烏地阿拉伯市場——從管道角度來看，從明年管道訂購的角度來看，您什麼時候開始看到沙烏地阿拉伯市場開始改善？您如何看待 26 年中東地區整體貿易量與 25 年相比的趨勢？謝謝。

Thank you, David. And then I will pass to Gabriel.

謝謝你，大衛。然後我將把話題交給加布里埃爾。

Good morning, David. Indeed, as you know, in Saudi, we have been seeing austerity measures for the number of months already in line with a lower price environment as we know. So rig count in the Kingdom has been going down, concentrated mainly in the oil, not only, but also we are seeing some gas rigs being dropped. The level of activity today is about 15% lower than it was a year from ago. So this is what we are seeing.

早安，大衛。事實上，正如您所知，在沙特，我們已經看到數月來一直在實施緊縮措施，以適應較低的價格環境。因此，沙烏地阿拉伯的鑽井數量一直在下降，主要集中在石油鑽井領域，我們也看到一些天然氣鑽井數量也在下降。目前的活動水準比一年前低了約 15%。這就是我們所看到的。

I would say the inventory level situation is pretty much in line with consumption. We are not having an overhang situation in Saudi anymore. The local supplier network plus Aramco inventories, I think, are pretty lean and in line with demand. So going forward, we would expect our shipment and sales in line with the variation of consumption.

我想說庫存水準情況與消費情況基本一致。我們在沙烏地阿拉伯不再面臨危機。我認為，本地供應商網路加上沙特阿美庫存相當精簡，並且符合需求。因此，展望未來，我們預計我們的出貨量和銷售額將與消費的變化保持一致。

To compensate this lower activity in oil in the Kingdom, we have an important pipeline business. I think we mentioned the CCS pipeline award last quarter. So this will contribute and offset part of the OCTG. This is regarding Saudi. The rest of the MENA region and the key markets, drilling activity is quite resilient. We see the Emirates pushing forward with the expansion of oil and gas with a marginal decrease of some rigs in their unconventional plan, but very marginal.

為了彌補沙烏地阿拉伯石油活動的減少，我們開展了重要的管道業務。我想我們上個季度提到過 CCS 管道獎。因此這將有助於抵消部分油井管。這是關於沙烏地阿拉伯的。中東和北非其他地區和主要市場的鑽井活動相當有彈性。我們看到阿聯酋正在推進石油和天然氣擴張，其非常規計畫中的一些鑽井平台略有減少，但幅度非常小。

They are still operating today at 120 rigs, which is a historical high level for ADNOC. Kuwait and Iraq are also pressing forward in their activity levels. And we see pretty much Qatar on track with the expansion of the LNG project. So overall, I would say, for the second half of this year and into 2026, I would say that our shipments in the Middle East will remain fairly stable and solid.

目前，阿布達比國家石油公司仍在運作 120 個鑽井平台，這對阿布達比國家石油公司來說是一個歷史最高水準。科威特和伊拉克也加大活動力道。我們看到卡達液化天然氣計畫的擴張進展順利。所以總的來說，我想說，今年下半年和 2026 年，我們在中東的出貨量將保持相當穩定且穩定。

Thank you very much. My second question is around Mexico. Paolo, you were talking about some of the challenges that Pemex is facing and now with some potentially helping to fix their debt situation. There does seem to be some positive on the horizon. But Pemex's CapEx budget is down 50% this year. Activity is plummeting. I presume you probably supply most of the pipe there from your facility in Veracruz.

非常感謝。我的第二個問題是關於墨西哥的。保羅，您談到了 Pemex 面臨的一些挑戰，以及現在可能有助於解決其債務狀況的一些措施。看來確實出現了一些正面的跡象。但今年 Pemex 的資本支出預算下降了 50%。活動正在急劇下降。我推測你們可能從韋拉克魯斯的工廠供應那裡的大部分管道。

So I'm curious how much of a drag has been this year, which hasn't really shown up in the numbers. But -- and secondarily, what kind of the opportunity is next year? So how do you sort of see those -- I know it's really hard to tell considering Pemex doesn't have a ton of visibility, but how do you see this trending going into next year? Overall, I know you're talking about line pipe. I'm talking more OCTG and the like.

所以我很好奇今年的拖累有多大，但這在數字上並沒有真正反映出來。但是──其次，明年有什麼樣的機會？那麼，您如何看待這些——我知道考慮到 Pemex 的知名度不高，這真的很難說，但您如何看待明年的趨勢？總的來說，我知道你在談論管線管。我談論的是更多油井管和類似物。

Yes. Well, I think that the fact that Pemex has been supported in getting this financing -- this financial operation and issuing debt for $12 billion with a guarantee from state, from the government, this has been oversubscribed. They had the possibility to collect even more than this at a very competitive rate because in the end, Mexico has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio.

是的。嗯，我認為，Pemex 在獲得這筆融資方面得到了支持——這項金融運作以及在國家和政府的擔保下發行 120 億美元的債務，這筆債務已經超額認購。他們有可能以非常有競爭力的利率收回更多的債務，因為墨西哥的債務與 GDP 比率相對較低。

So it's a very important sign that the Mexican government is willing to address the situation of Pemex not only in reducing the financial load on the supplier, but also in giving the financial means to pick up back operation. Now we see this in the number of rigs that are starting to operate. Rig today are in the range of 24 rigs. And we were having 19, but even less than 19 in one month, rigs in the recent past. So this, in my view, is a sign that the Mexican government are back in supporting Pemex for the relevance of Pemex in the overall economy for gas production, for oil production, and for the level of activity.

因此，這是一個非常重要的訊號，表明墨西哥政府願意解決 Pemex 的問題，不僅要減輕供應商的財務負擔，還要提供財政手段來恢復營運。現在我們從開始運作的鑽井平台的數量就可以看出這一點。今天的鑽機數量在 24 台左右。而最近我們有 19 台鑽孔機，但一個月內甚至不到 19 台。因此，在我看來，這表明墨西哥政府重新支持 Pemex，因為 Pemex 在整個經濟中與天然氣生產、石油生產和活動水準息息相關。

So this is more than anything -- is a very important sign. Will this be followed by a continuing support within the plan of restructuring of Pemex? Well, they also changed the management of Pemex, and this is also a sign that they are addressing this. We know that in the second half of 2025, the Pemex increase in volume is the fact that will maintain overall sales into North America for us, more or less stable, compensating from some reduction for the season in Canada and some constraint in some reduction in the US. So for sure, we anticipate in this a positive trend.

所以這比任何事情都更重要——這是一個非常重要的訊號。隨後是否會繼續支持 Pemex 的重組計劃？嗯，他們也更換了 Pemex 的管理層，這也是他們正在解決這個問題的標誌。我們知道，到 2025 年下半年，Pemex 的銷售量增加將使我們在北美的整體銷售量保持基本穩定，從而彌補加拿大本季銷售的減少以及美國銷售的減少。因此，我們肯定預期會出現正面的趨勢。

Now when we look at one year from now, I think it's more difficult to have a forecast because in the end, Mexico today has to deal with the negotiation of the new negotiation of the USMCA, the tariff. And we have to redefine some of the strategy even in the energy sector. But I'm very confident that in the end, it will make sense. There are resources available for it. And if the price of oil is where it is in the range of $65, it makes a lot of sense to develop very reserves that are very profitable, have very low cost of extraction, and will make a lot of sense to maintain this trend of support.

現在，當我們展望一年後的情況時，我認為做出預測會更加困難，因為最終墨西哥今天必須處理 USMCA 的新談判和關稅問題。甚至在能源領域，我們也必須重新制定一些策略。但我非常有信心，最終它會是有意義的。有可用的資源。如果油價處於 65 美元左右的範圍內，那麼開發利潤豐厚、開採成本極低的儲量就非常有意義，並且維持這種支撐趨勢也很有意義。

Appreciate your comments. Thank you, Paolo.

感謝您的評論。謝謝你，保羅。

(Operator Instructions) Derek Podhaizer, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示） Derek Podhaizer、Piper Sandler。

Hey, good morning. Just a question in US land. So we've seen strength in the gas markets, primarily private driven across the Northeast, Haynesville, the Eagle Ford gas window. Just curious your level of exposure to this tailwind in the US. I mean, I've always viewed as primarily attached to the larger customers utilizing RigDirect(r). But maybe help us think through about your exposure to the privates in these particular gas basins.

嘿，早安。這只是美國土地上的一個問題。因此，我們看到了天然氣市場的強勁表現，主要是由東北地區、海恩斯維爾、鷹福特天然氣窗口的私人推動。我只是好奇您在美國對這種順風的了解程度。我的意思是，我一直認為主要依靠使用 RigDirect(r) 的較大客戶。但也許可以幫助我們仔細考慮您對這些特定天然氣盆地的私人影響。

Thank you, Derek. I will ask Guillermo to give us an overview of our exposure to this. Guillermo?

謝謝你，德里克。我將請吉列爾莫向我們概述一下我們對此的了解。吉列爾莫？

Yes. Thanks, Paolo. And good morning, Derek. Our exposure to gas, I mean, in the US, has been mainly in Haynesville and more than in Appalachia. So we are seeing an upside. We are seeing a growth of activity in Appalachia, as you said, mainly from private operators. And there are a couple of them that have driven the growth that has been traditional clients. So we are seeing an increase of our sales for gas in Haynesville and then also our market share. And we stay optimistic about further growth in the future and with this of our sales and again, our position in the region where we are very competitive because we have Bay City very close to that play.

是的。謝謝，保羅。早上好，德瑞克。我的意思是，在美國，我們對天然氣的接觸主要集中在海恩斯維爾，而不是阿巴拉契亞地區。因此我們看到了好處。正如您所說，我們看到阿巴拉契亞地區的活動有所增長，主要來自私人經營者。其中有幾個傳統客戶推動了成長。因此，我們看到海恩斯維爾的天然氣銷量有所增長，市場份額也有所增加。我們對未來的進一步成長以及我們的銷售額以及我們在該地區的競爭力保持樂觀，因為我們的貝城離該地區非常近。

I also think that the -- in all the discussion and negotiation that the American administration is establishing, there are a component about purchasing of LNG and developing -- helping develop growing the LNG in the United States. One way or the other, even if a fraction of this will be realized in the coming year, this means demand for gas.

我還認為，在美國政府正在進行的所有討論和談判中，都包含有關購買液化天然氣和開發的內容——幫助發展美國的液化天然氣。無論如何，即使明年只能實現其中一小部分，這也意味著對天然氣的需求。

So gas is important. Gas is demanding seamless pipe with, in some case, a more complex product. The price of gas today, the Henry Hub supported by the associated gas and specific development for gas is relatively solid in this moment. And all this negotiation should, to some extent, promote or stimulate investment in energy. So we have to be very focused on this because it will be logical to have increase in the activity in gas in the US and the Lower 48.

所以氣體很重要。天然氣對無縫管的要求較高，在某些情況下，產品會更加複雜。今天的天然氣價格，在伴生氣和特定天然氣開發的支持下，亨利中心的天然氣價格目前相對穩定。所有這些談判應該在一定程度上促進或刺激能源投資。因此，我們必須高度關注這一點，因為增加美國和美國本土 48 個州的天然氣活動是合乎邏輯的。

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate the comments. Second question, just maybe some color around how much pipe is on the ground now in the US, just thinking about the distributors as well. Just trying to work through the timing as far as working that down from an activity standpoint, which will also further support pricing just outside of the increased tariff costs. So maybe just some color around the pipe on the ground and working through that from an activity lens.

知道了。這很有幫助。我很感謝這些評論。第二個問題，也許可以大致了解美國目前地面上有多少管道，同時也考慮分銷商。只是嘗試從活動的角度來解決時間問題，這也將進一步支持增加的關稅成本之外的定價。因此，也許只是地面上管道周圍的一些顏色，並透過活動鏡頭來觀察。

Yes, yes. I would say that here, the problem is that not only the pipe on the ground, but also the pipe on the sea, the ones that are coming into the US before realizing that the 50% tariffs were going to hit them at the custom. Guillermo, you have more -- you can comment on this.

是的，是的。我想說的是，這裡的問題不僅在於地面上的管道，還在於海上的管道，這些管道在進入美國之前並沒有意識到 50% 的關稅將在海關對他們造成打擊。吉列爾莫，你還有更多內容——你可以對此發表評論。

Yes, for sure. And as you said, Paolo, before, I mean, imports in the first half of 2025 increased a lot. If we see this in numbers, the imports of OCTG in the US first half of 2025 was more than 70% higher than the second half of 2024. So it was a very relevant increase that coupled with some reduction in activity determined that in these six months, the pipes on the ground increased in equivalent of one month of overall consumption in the US.

是的，當然。正如您之前所說，Paolo，我的意思是，2025 年上半年的進口量增加了很多。如果我們從數字上看，2025 年上半年美國油井管的進口量比 2024 年下半年高出 70% 以上。因此，這是一個非常相關的成長，再加上活動的減少，決定了在這六個月中，地面管道增加的數量相當於美國一個月的總消費量。

So this is putting pressure on prices, not allowing so far Pipe Logix to increase as expected due to the tariff. And we think that within this quarter, we'll start to see a reduction and more impact on the fourth quarter. Because it's when we will see, as Paolo said, the shipments defined based on the 50% tariff and not in the 25% that as we saw were not enough to reduce the level of imports.

因此，這給價格帶來了壓力，到目前為止，由於關稅的原因，Pipe Logix 的價格無法如預期上漲。我們認為，在本季度內，我們將開始看到第四季度的減少和更大的影響。因為正如保羅所說，我們會看到，根據 50% 的關稅而不是 25% 的關稅定義的出貨量不足以降低進口水準。

Level of inventory in terms of months?

庫存水準以月為單位？

So it went from six to seven months, more or less from fourth quarter of 2024 to second quarter of 2025, one month of equivalent consumption.

因此，從 2024 年第四季到 2025 年第二季度，時間跨度從六到七個月，相當於一個月的消費量。

Thank you. Very helpful. I'll turn it back.

謝謝。非常有幫助。我會把它轉回去。

Kevin Roger, Kepler Cheuvreux.

凱文·羅傑，開普勒·舍弗勒。

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the time. I have maybe two follow ups, if I may. The first one is on Mexico. Can you provide us a bit of sensitivity on what kind of revenue you generated in Mexico, for example, back in 2023, and what you are currently generating right now, just to understand the potential magnitude of earnings that you can get in the country after the $12 billion new financing for Pemex?

是的，下午好。感謝您抽出時間。如果可以的話，我可能有兩個後續問題。第一個是關於墨西哥的。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您在 2023 年在墨西哥創造的收入，以及您目前創造的收入，以便了解在為 Pemex 提供 120 億美元新融資後，您在該國可以獲得的潛在收益規模？

And the second one, on the tariff, if everything remains like it is right now, what is your available capacity in the US and notably on the seamless side? What part of the volumes that you currently import from, I don't know, Mexico and Canada that you can relocate easily in the US with available capacity, please?

第二個問題，關於關稅，如果一切保持現在的狀態，你們在美國（尤其是無縫方面）的可用容量是多少？請問您目前從墨西哥和加拿大進口的貨物中，有多少可以利用美國的現有產能輕鬆轉運？

Thank you, Kevin. Well, on the first one, in the past, the number of rigs operated by Pemex were in the range of 50, 45 rigs. So let's say, you can imagine today, we are at 24. So this is just giving you a broad indication on which will be the size of the market. Now on top of this, there are private operators. Woodside is operating. And one of the increases that we will have in shipment to Mexico will be -- in the coming quarter will be the Woodside project, which is a very relevant offshore project, very interesting one that we are supplying for Mexico.

謝謝你，凱文。嗯，關於第一個問題，過去 Pemex 營運的鑽井平台數量在 50 到 45 個之間。假設，你可以想像今天，我們已經 24 歲了。所以這只是給你一個關於市場規模的大致指示。現在除此之外，還有私人業者。伍德賽德正在運作。我們對墨西哥的出貨量將會增加，下個季度我們將會增加伍德賽德項目，這是一個非常相關的海上項目，也是我們為墨西哥提供的非常有趣的項目。

So this is just giving you the size of the market, and this is the market for mainly OCTG with some aspects in line pipe when the export line are requiring long line for this. So this is, let's say, what would be possible. Now we don't expect this to happen soon. We expect this to be a gradual process of increased reorganization. But still, in my view, the direction in which this is moving is a direction of recovering level of activity.

這只是告訴你市場的規模，這個市場主要是油井管市場，當出口管線需要長管線時，還會涉及一些管線管的問題。可以說，這是有可能實現的。現在我們不希望這種情況很快發生。我們預計這將是一個逐步加強重組的過程。但在我看來，這一方向仍是朝著恢復活動水準的方向發展。

The other point is on capacity. Remember, our main import in the States are bars -- steel bars to feed to complement our production in Koppel. The production of steel that we have in the States is very relevant, but we need to complement this with semis round bar coming from outside. This is the most important component of our import in the States on which we pay, and we will pay this 50%.

另一點是關於容量。請記住，我們在美國主要進口的是鋼筋——鋼條，以補充我們在 Koppel 的生產。我們在美國生產的鋼材非常重要，但我們需要用外部的半成品圓鋼來補充。這是我們在美國進口的最重要組成部分，我們將支付這50%。

Then we also complement some special product for the Gulf of Mexico that is not produced in the States, mainly coming from Europe. But these are product in which the clients are prepared to pay straight on the tariff because there is basically no alternative, and they need to proceed with products that are not produced into the States in this case. Something on material coming from Canada into the States is going into the North, but it is a very marginal part of the matrix.

然後我們也為墨西哥灣補充一些美國沒有生產的特殊產品，主要來自歐洲。但這些產品的客戶願意直接支付關稅，因為基本上沒有其他選擇，在這種情況下，他們需要繼續購買不在美國生產的產品。來自加拿大到美國的材料中有一些進入了北方，但它只是矩陣中非常邊緣的部分。

Okay, thanks a lot. Have a good day.

好的，非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯多福·庫普倫特（Christopher Kuplent）。

Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got two. Paolo, the evergreen question, I suppose, is, could you give us an assessment of what you think the M&A environment looks like at this point in time? I mean it's hard to come up with a forecast for 4Q, but you sound pretty bullish in terms of price evolution into 2026, at least in the US. So do you think that sort of lack of clarity is throwing up M&A opportunities that perhaps in the past with a different US administration weren't thinkable? So that would be my first question to you, Paolo.

你好呀。感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。保羅，我想，一個永恆的問題是，您能否評估一下您認為目前的併購環境是什麼樣的？我的意思是，很難對第四季度做出預測，但您對 2026 年的價格演變相當樂觀，至少在美國是如此。那麼，您是否認為這種不明確性會帶來併購機會，而這些機會在過去不同的美國政府執政時期是無法想像的？這是我向您提出的第一個問題，保羅。

Well, thank you, Christopher. This is -- as you know, we have -- we are the largest player in the United States. We have a relevant participation in the market. It's not easy to identify a suitable target for this. I'm convinced that looking ahead, consolidation is important. And also growth along our supply chain is also important. But anything that we can imagine here has a reasonably size that is not, let's say, very relevant.

好吧，謝謝你，克里斯多福。這是——正如你所知，我們是美國最大的參與者。我們在市場上有相關的參與。為此，要找到合適的目標並不容易。我深信，展望未來，整合非常重要。我們的供應鏈的成長也很重要。但是，我們在這裡可以想像的任何事物都有一個合理的大小，也就是說，並不是非常相關。

Imagine also when we move on, on the Shawcor operation, it is a very important operation from our point of view. But in terms of size of the M&A, it's not, let's say, something that is transforming the company from the point of view of the size of the operation. So we consider, we look, we study. We monitor also the attitude of the new administration to see if there are a change in the approach to vertical or horizontal integration. And we will be very active on this if we perceive that there is room for us.

想像一下，當我們繼續進行 Shawcor 行動時，從我們的角度來看，這是一項非常重要的行動。但就併購規模而言，這並不是從營運規模的角度改變公司的事件。因此我們考慮、觀察、研究。我們也關注新政府的態度，看看其在垂直或水平整合方法上是否有所改變。如果我們認為還有空間，我們就會非常積極地去做這件事。

Thank you. That sounds like you're happy with the current run rate on the buyback program to continue. My second question is more short term. Maybe you can tell us a little bit about your expectations regarding the evolution of net working capital. I suppose you've referenced the increase in inventories. How do you see your management of inventories considering you've got turnarounds coming up as well, probably well timed?

謝謝。聽起來您對回購計畫目前的運行率感到滿意。我的第二個問題比較短期。也許您可以告訴我們一些您對淨營運資本演變的期望。我想您已經提到了庫存的增加。考慮到您即將面臨週轉，而且時機很好，您如何看待您的庫存管理？

Yes. Thank you, Christopher. On this, I will ask Carlos to comment on working capital, what we expect from our working capital. For sure, this quarter, and our cash flow has been pretty strong, but Carlos?

是的。謝謝你，克里斯多福。關於這一點，我將請卡洛斯對營運資本做出評論，我們對營運資本有何期望。當然，本季我們的現金流相當強勁，但卡洛斯？

Hi, Christopher. So during the first half of the year, we've been generating cash from our working capital, generated around $250 million. Much of that was coming from inventories and some from receivables. So we expect during the next quarter to build up inventories. Now part of that, let's say, trend down in inventory was because of -- we finished some big projects. So we ship all the material that we have in stock, and we expect to build some inventory during Q3 and then release some of it during Q4.

你好，克里斯多福。因此，在今年上半年，我們一直在從營運資金中產生現金，產生了約 2.5 億美元。其中大部分來自庫存，有些來自應收帳款。因此我們預計下個季度將增加庫存。現在，庫存趨勢下降的部分原因是——我們完成了一些大項目。因此，我們會運送所有庫存材料，並預計在第三季建立一些庫存，然後在第四季發布一些庫存。

Very helpful. Thank you very much.

非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在，我想將會議交還給喬瓦尼·薩達尼亞 (Giovanni Sardagna) 作結束語。

Thank you, Gigi, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝你，吉吉，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。