Tenaris SA (TS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day.

再會。

And thank you for standing by.

感謝您的支持。

Welcome to third quarter 2024 Tenaris SA earnings conference call.

歡迎參加泰納瑞斯 SA 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi.

謝謝你，吉吉。

And welcome to Tenaris 2024 third quarter conference call.

歡迎參加泰納瑞斯 2024 年第三季電話會議。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將在電話會議中討論前瞻性訊息，我們的實際結果可能與本次電話會議中明示或暗示的結果有所不同。

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman & CEO; Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer; Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer; and Luca Zanotti, President of our US Operations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Paolo Rocca； Alicia Mondolo，我們的財務長； Gabriel Podskubka，我們的營運長；以及我們美國業務總裁 Luca Zanotti。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.

在致電保羅致開幕詞之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們的季度業績。

Our sales in the third quarter of 2024 reached $2.9 billion, down 10% compared to those of the previous year and down 12% sequentially, mainly due to lower prices in the Americas and lower demand in the USA Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, as well as lower line pipes shipments to Argentina.

2024年第三季我們的銷售額達到29億美元，比上年下降10%，比上一季下降12%，主要是由於美洲價格下降以及美國、墨西哥和沙烏地阿拉伯的需求下降下線管道將貨物運往阿根廷。

Average selling prices in our tubes operating segment decreased 14% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year and 2% sequentially.

我們的管材業務部門的平均售價較去年同期下降 14%，比上一季下降 2%。

Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 6% sequentially to $688 million as the previous quarter was affected by an extraordinary provision recorded for an ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of a participation in Usiminas in 2012.

我們本季的 EBITDA 環比增長 6%，達到 6.88 億美元，因為上一季受到與 2012 年收購 Usiminas 股權相關的正在進行的訴訟記錄的特別撥備的影響。

Without this extraordinary provision in the previous quarter, the EBITDA for the quarter would have declined 16% sequentially.

如果沒有上一季的這項特別撥備，本季的 EBITDA 將比上一季下降 16%。

However, our EBITDA margin at 23.6% was only marginally lower compared to the margin recorded last quarter on a comparable basis.

然而，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率為 23.6%，與上季可比利潤率相比僅略有下降。

With operating cash flow of $552 million and capital expenditure of $179 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was $373 million.

營運現金流為 5.52 億美元，資本支出為 1.79 億美元，本季自由現金流為 3.73 億美元。

After share buybacks of $182 million, our net cash position amounted to $4 billion at the end of the quarter.

回購 1.82 億美元的股票後，本季末我們的淨現金部位達到 40 億美元。

Our Board of Directors approved the payment of an interim dividend $0.27 per share or $0.54 per [ADR] to be paid on November 20, the interim dividend is up 35% compared to the interim dividend we paid last year.

我們的董事會批准於11月20日支付每股0.27美元或每份[ADR]0.54美元的中期股息，與去年支付的中期股息相比，中期股息增加了35%。

In addition to the dividend, the Board of Directors also approved a share buyback of $700 million to be executed within the next five months.

除股息外，董事會還批准在未來五個月內執行 7 億美元的股票回購。

Now, I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open for questions.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我請保羅說幾句話。

Thank you Giovanni and good morning to all of you.

謝謝喬瓦尼，祝大家早安。

In the third quarter, we successfully carried out our extensive program of plant stoppages.

第三季度，我們成功實施了廣泛的工廠停工計畫。

We have now largely concluded an important cycle of investment in the maintenance and modernization of our industrial system, incorporating innovative technology for steel making and heating furnaces and further automation.

現在，我們已基本結束了對工業系統維護和現代化的重要投資週期，其中融入了煉鋼和加熱爐的創新技術以及進一步的自動化。

Still ongoing is an investment at our US steel shop to modernize the dust collection system and expand capacity which will be concluded this month.

我們仍在繼續對美國鋼鐵廠進行一項投資，以實現除塵系統現代化並擴大產能，該投資將於本月完成。

This investment will contribute to significant improvement in productivity and environmental performance with low air pollution.

這項投資將有助於顯著提高生產力和環境績效，同時降低空氣污染。

We are confident that we will see the benefit of this investment over time.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這項投資的好處。

We have expanded our relationship with international oil companies and consolidated our position in complex offshore projects.

我們擴大了與國際石油公司的關係，鞏固了我們在複雜海上計畫中的地位。

This is being reflected in a number of recent awards that will support our offshore order backlog for 2025 and 2026.

這反映在最近的一些獎項中，這些獎項將支持我們 2025 年和 2026 年的離岸訂單積壓。

The Guyana-Suriname basin where we are already serving ExxonMobil' casing requirement under a long term agreement.

根據長期協議，我們已經在圭亞那-蘇利南盆地滿足埃克森美孚的套管需求。

Saipem, awarded us a line pipe and insulation coating package for the total Grand Morgu development, recognizing the benefit of our TenarisShawcor integration.

Saipem 授予我們用於 Grand Morgu 整體開發的管線管和絕緣塗層包，認可了我們的 TenarisShawcor 整合的優勢。

In Brazil, we were awarded a riser and flowline package with thermal insulated coating for Petrobras, [Buzios 9] development as well as the conductor casing and super chrome tubing for the Sépia and Atapu project, which we are currently delivering the export line, the export pipeline, risers and coating for Equinor Raia project.

在巴西，我們獲得了用於巴西國家石油公司[Buzios 9] 開發的帶隔熱塗層的立管和出油管套件，以及用於Sépia 和Atapu 項目的導管和超鉻管，我們目前正在交付該工程的出口管線，Equinor Raia工程的出口管道、立管和塗層。

In West Africa, ExxonMobil awarded us the casing for the block 15 development in Angola.

在西非，埃克森美孚授予我們安哥拉 15 號區塊開發的套管。

We also secured the offshore line pipe for Shell Bonga project in Nigeria.

我們也為尼日利亞殼牌邦加計畫獲得了海上管線管道。

In the United States where drilling activity has stabilized, OCTG imports are coming down.

在美國，鑽探活動已經穩定，石油管材進口量正在下降。

Import from Thailand have come to a halt after where they were found to have been violating trade rules.

在被發現違反貿易規則後，從泰國的進口已停止。

For this year, the Korean import quota has been reduced by 50,000 tons and this will also apply for 2025.

今年，韓國進口配額減少了5萬噸，2025年也將如此。

The pipe logix index of US OCTG prices has started to rebound with increases over the past two months and we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months.

美國油井管價格的 Pipe Logix 指數在過去兩個月中已經開始反彈並上漲，我們預計這一趨勢將在未來幾個月繼續下去。

In Canada trade action implemented in recent months has limited unfairly traded Chinese OCTG imports.

加拿大近幾個月實施的貿易行動限制了不公平貿易的中國油井管進口。

We are being successful in showing the value of our Rig Direct service program by extending the coverage and duration of our service agreement among the larger Canadian operators.

透過擴大加拿大大型營運商的服務協議的覆蓋範圍和期限，我們成功地展示了我們的 Rig Direct 服務計劃的價值。

This includes Petronas who awarded us with a three year contract for the OCTG requirement in the mountain.

其中包括馬來西亞國家石油公司 (Petronas) 授予我們一份為期三年的合同，以滿足山區 OCTG 的要求。

As they prepare for the startup next March of the LNG Canada project.

他們正在為加拿大液化天然氣計畫明年三月的啟動做準備。

In Argentina, economic conditions are improving and investments are starting to move forward in Vaca Muerta where there are plans to increase oil exports from the country to 1 million barrels a day before the end of the decade.

在阿根廷，經濟狀況正在改善，瓦卡穆爾塔的投資也開始推進，該國計劃在本世紀末將石油出口量增加到每天 100 萬桶。

We were awarded the supply contract and received a down payment for the first phase of the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline which will connect the production in the shale to a new deep water port Punta Colorado in Rio Negro province.

我們獲得了 Vaca Muerta Sur 石油管道第一期的供應合約並收到了首期付款，該管道將把頁岩的生產連接到裡奧內格羅省的新深水港蓬塔科羅拉多港。

In the Middle East, while gas drilling activity remain at the stable level, we are seeing some softening in oil drilling activity.

在中東，雖然天然氣鑽探活動保持穩定水平，但我們看到石油鑽探活動疲軟。

In Saudi Arabia, we have just completed deliveries and a special stock replenishment program.

在沙烏地阿拉伯，我們剛剛完成了交貨和特殊庫存補充計劃。

And now Aramco is looking to reduce stocks and increase cash flow.

現在，沙特阿美正在尋求減少庫存並增加現金流。

Even if in the third quarter, our shipment remain relatively high, this destocking will have an impact on our sale for the fourth quarter.

即使第三季我們的出貨量仍然比較高，這種去庫存也會對我們第四季的銷售產生影響。

Our free cash flow remains strongly positive even with the transition to the new government.

即使向新政府過渡，我們的自由現金流仍保持強勁的正值。

Pemex in Mexico has further delayed payments.

墨西哥國家石油公司進一步延後付款。

Free cash flow has amounted to $1.9 billion in the nine months.

九個月內自由現金流達 19 億美元。

And our net cash position at September 30, amounted to $4 billion.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的淨現金部位達到 40 億美元。

In this situation, our Board of Director decided to increase our interim dividend by 35% to $0.27 per share and to authorise follow on share buyback program of around $700 million using the authority granted at the annual General Shareholder Assembly in June 2020.

在這種情況下，我們的董事會決定將中期股利增加 35% 至每股 0.27 美元，並利用 2020 年 6 月年度股東大會授予的權力，授權實施約 7 億美元的股票回購計畫。

With this interim dividend and extension of our share buyback program, we will return close to $2 billion to our shareholders in this calendar year.

透過此次中期股利和延長股票回購計劃，我們將在今年向股東返還近 20 億美元。

We are now opening for any questions you may have.

我們現在歡迎您提出任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

亞歷山德羅·波齊，Mediobanca。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I have three if I may.

如果可以的話我有三個。

And the first one is we've seen the results of the US elections and I was wondering if you can give us your thoughts on how the new administration could have an impact on your business.

第一個是我們已經看到了美國大選的結果，我想知道您是否可以向我們提供您對新政府如何對您的業務產生影響的想法。

Could have opportunities for you in the US.

在美國可能會給你機會。

I'm thinking about potential a more protectionist approach with the higher tariffs or lower quotas or maybe even on the M&A side, whether potentially now you're looking at maybe acquisitions that may not have been available in the past with the previous administration.

我正在考慮可能採取更具保護主義的做法，包括更高的關稅或更低的配額，甚至可能在併購方面，無論你現在是否正在考慮前一屆政府過去可能無法進行的收購。

And we know that in 2023 and the acquisition of Benteler was terminated.

我們知道，2023年，對本特勒的收購被終止。

So, any thoughts around the impact of the new administration could be really helpful.

因此，任何關於新政府影響的想法都可能非常有幫助。

The second one, if you can just give us maybe your view on what we should think about the share buyback into next year?

第二個問題，您能否告訴我們您對我們應該如何考慮明年的股票回購的看法？

You just announced the $700 million until March.

你們剛剛宣布了 3 月之前的 7 億美元資金。

But I was wondering beyond March, what sort of let's say share buyback program we could envisage should we assume on a steady state?

但我想知道三月之後，我們可以設想什麼樣的股票回購計劃，我們應該假設處於穩定狀態？

$1.2 billion for next year, let's say same as last year.

明年為 12 億美元，與去年相同。

And also final question on outlook for the activities in North America.

最後一個問題是關於北美活動的前景。

Some of your peers have suggested potential flat if not down activities coming down next year.

你的一些同行建議明年的活動即使不會減少，也可能會持平。

But it feels like you are more constructive for the US next year.

但感覺你明年對美國更有建設性。

And I was wondering if you can give us your thoughts on how we should see activities into 2025.

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對我們應該如何看待 2025 年活動的想法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you Alessandro for your question.

謝謝亞歷山德羅的提問。

Well, to begin with, you're mentioning the impact of US election.

嗯，首先，你提到了美國大選的影響。

I think is very early to understand the changes that may be relevant for us.

我認為了解可能與我們相關的變化還為時過早。

Let me say that one first point is that we reduce the level of uncertainty.

首先我要說的是，我們降低了不確定性水準。

At least we know today where we are and everybody in the world that the government of different countries knows what -- which will be the new government in the US, in this sense.

至少我們今天知道我們在哪裡，世界上每個人都知道不同國家的政府知道什麼——從這個意義上說，這將是美國的新政府。

We are reducing the level of uncertainty.

我們正在降低不確定性。

This is always something positive for in constructive, for deciding strategy and what will be the action from the part of the company and the different government.

這對於決定公司和不同政府的策略以及行動始終具有建設性的正面作用。

Now in terms of where we see area that could be of impact.

現在就我們看到的可能產生影響的領域而言。

Well, I think in general, the election of Donald Trump as a President, even if it will materialize, will take a charge only in January.

嗯，我認為總的來說，唐納德·川普當選總統，即使它能夠實現，也只會在一月份發生。

But it is being perceived as positive for the energy sector.

但這被認為對能源產業是正面的。

We may expect that the policies of the new administration will be favorable for the energy sector in facilitating development oriented to export of gas in particular.

我們預計，新政府的政策將有利於能源產業，特別是天然氣出口的發展。

We may expect some permitting speed up that would allow improved evacuation in the region.

我們可能會期望在允許的情況下加快速度，從而改善該地區的疏散情況。

So in general, I think there is a general perception that the new administration should have a positive impact on investment in the energy sector in the United States.

所以總的來說，我認為人們普遍認為新政府應該對美國能源產業的投資產生正面影響。

On the second point is on China, the [normalization], we have policy of restraining the aggressive of the Chinese industrial sector in import into the states.

第二點是關於中國的[正常化]，我們有限制中國工業部門進口到各州的侵略性政策。

The position on China may reduce, let's say the penetration of steel and other materials from China in the United States and maybe in the other part in other region.

對中國的立場可能會減少，例如來自中國的鋼鐵和其他材料在美國以及其他地區的滲透。

In this sense also we perceive that this maybe something that could have a positive impact for a company like us that are operating in this market.

從這個意義上說，我們也認為這可能會對像我們這樣在這個市場上運作的公司產生正面影響。

The third area that is important is the question of the tariff.

第三個重要領域是關稅問題。

This is more uncertain because in the end, we don't know which will be the policy of the new administration in the relation with Mexico or the rest of the world.

這更不確定，因為最終我們不知道新政府在與墨西哥或世界其他國家的關係上將採取哪種政策。

I think we have to wait until we have a more clear understanding on the setup of the relation and the decision concerning tariff.

我認為我們必須等到我們對關係的設定和關稅決定有更清晰的了解。

In general, we may expect that the new administration will defend industrial activity in the US and in my view also in the US MCA.

總的來說，我們預計新政府將捍衛美國的工業活動，在我看來，美國 MCA 的工業活動也是如此。

Because in the end, the repositioning of the supply chain into the Western countries and the US should have a positive impact for a company like us that are mainly operating within the space.

因為最終，供應鏈重新定位到西方國家和美國應該會對像我們這樣主要在該領域運作的公司產生正面影響。

But this is something that we will understand better in the future.

但這是我們將來會更好理解的事情。

From the point of view of the relation, for instance, something that is also important for us with Argentina, the new administration should have a positive view and a positive view of the relation with Argentina.

從關係的角度來看，比如說對我們和阿根廷來說也很重要的一點，新政府應該對和阿根廷的關係有正面的看法和正面的看法。

From the point of view of Argentina, the election and the new administration is a positive news.

對阿根廷來說，這次選舉和新政府上台是個正面的消息。

There is a relation that could be constructive for supporting the recovery of the Argentinian economy.

其中存在著一種可能對支持阿根廷經濟復甦具有建設性的關係。

And in this sense, I think that this should support investment, for instance in the development of the energy sector in Argentina and will also have an impact like the one that we are seeing just yesterday in reducing the risk associated with Argentina.

從這個意義上說，我認為這應該支持投資，例如阿根廷能源部門的發展，並且還將產生像我們昨天看到的那樣的影響，減少與阿根廷相關的風險。

The country risk will possibly be reduced by the strong relation that has been established in the past.

過去建立的牢固關係可能會降低國家風險。

And I think it is possible to influence the relation and the ability of Argentina to have access to the international financial market.

我認為這有可能影響阿根廷的關係和進入國際金融市場的能力。

I think these are the area in which we are observing and we expect the change in administration may have a positive impact on a company like Tenaris that is operating in this environment.

我認為這些是我們正在觀察的領域，我們預計管理變革可能會對像泰納瑞斯這樣在這種環境下運營的公司產生積極影響。

What about potential new M&A opportunities in the US?

美國潛在的新併購機會如何？

This is also something that we would, I mean we need to wait and see all the decision that gradually the new administration will see.

這也是我們願意做的事情，我的意思是我們需要等待，看看新政府將逐漸看到的所有決定。

We'll take and we will see we have today, no hints of which -- if there will be change in policy on the antirust or in other areas that could be, let's say, introducing changes that may stimulate or be in favor of M&A policy for a company for Tenaris.

我們會採取，我們會看到今天的情況，沒有任何跡象表明防銹或其他領域的政策會發生變化，比如說，引入可能刺激或有利於併購的變化泰納瑞斯公司的政策。

The second point is on the share buyback.

第二點是關於股票回購。

Well, we announced the decision that has been taken within the authority of the Bord.

好吧，我們宣布了董事會權限內所做的決定。

I think that the Board in February will again in February and before the General Assembly analyze and see how the situation is evolving and will consider the policy for share buyback at that time.

我認為二月的董事會將在二月和股東大會之前再次分析並了解情況的發展，並在那時考慮股票回購的政策。

We cannot anticipate today, which will be the orientation of the board and eventually of the Special Assembly, extraordinary assembly that will be needed to expand our share buyback program.

我們無法預期今天將成為董事會的方向，並最終成為特別大會的方向，特別大會是擴大我們的股票回購計畫所需的特別大會。

The last point is the outlook for North America.

最後一點是北美的前景。

I understand you are referring to comment of some of other oil service company on the region.

我了解您指的是其他一些石油服務公司對該地區的評論。

I will ask here to Luca give us his feeling on the level of activity.

我將請盧卡告訴我們他對活動量的感受。

I think that also the election in the United States may also have an impact here.

我認為美國的大選也可能對這裡產生影響。

But anyway, Luca, it's up to you.

但無論如何，盧卡，這取決於你。

Yeah, thank you, Paolo.

是的，謝謝你，保羅。

Good morning Alessandro.

早安，亞歷山德羅。

So I understand that you're referring to Q1 2025.

所以我理解您指的是 2025 年第一季。

And if this is the case, you need to see that our activity in the US will increase and this is going to be mainly driven by three factors.

如果是這樣的話，你需要看到我們在美國的活動將會增加，這將主要由三個因素驅動。

One, our customers resetting the budgets are going to add a few rigs, I mean, not big things, but they're going to slightly increase.

第一，我們的客戶重置預算將添加一些鑽孔機，我的意思是，不是很大的事情，但它們會略有增加。

We will complete the rollover of our contracts to the company that have been acquired by our legacy customer.

我們將完成將合約轉交給已被我們的老客戶收購的公司的工作。

This is another component and there are a few small operators.

這是另一個組件，有一些小操作員。

They used to be traditionally our legacy customer that went out of activity for a certain period.

他們曾經是我們的傳統客戶，在一段時間內停止活動。

And now they have recently returned -- they are returning right now and we're going to see the effect of them deploying full speed in the first quarter of 2025.

現在他們最近回來了——他們現在就回來了，我們將在 2025 年第一季看到他們全速部署的效果。

So in terms of activity, we see an increase and obviously also in terms of price, we see an increase.

因此，就活動而言，我們看到了成長，顯然在價格方面，我們也看到了成長。

As you know, our prices have some lag.

如您所知，我們的價格有些滯後。

So we are going to see the increase that we have seen here in the pipe logix recently.

因此，我們將看到最近在管道 logix 中看到的成長。

And I think we're going to see another one going ahead fully reflected into the first quarter of 2025.

我認為我們將看到另一個進展在 2025 年第一季得到充分體現。

Okay.

好的。

It's very clear.

非常清楚。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Arun Jayaram, JP Morgan Securities LLC.

阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)，摩根大通證券有限責任公司。

Yeah, good morning, good afternoon, gentlemen.

是的，早上好，下午好，先生們。

Paolo, my first question is maybe a follow up on implications from the new administration.

保羅，我的第一個問題可能是新政府影響的後續行動。

I wanted to get your thoughts on if the new administration did raise tariffs on imports

我想了解您對新政府是否提高進口關稅的看法

--.

--.

So this is a what if kind of scenario, what would be the impact to Tenaris?

那麼這是一種假設情景，會對泰納瑞斯產生什麼影響呢？

And I'm just thinking about if you could give us a sense of how much of your North American revenues or volume do you supply with domestic product versus maybe some of the sourcing out of Veracruz or out of Argentina?

我只是在想，您能否讓我們了解一下，您在北美的收入或產量中有多少是由國內產品供應的，而可能是從韋拉克魯斯或阿根廷採購的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, first of all, we need to understand that the policy that will be adopted in the new administration.

首先，我們需要了解新政府將採取的政策。

I think the new administration is a strong driver in repositioning supply chain out of China.

我認為新政府是重新定位中國供應鏈的強大動力。

They will consider not necessarily only in the United States, they will be, I imagine a policy oriented to this repositioning of supply chain that will include also, let's say consideration for the US MCA for the American industry in itself, but also for the relation with countries that are within, let's say the area of influence of the US and the Western countries

他們不一定只在美國考慮，我想他們會制定一項針對供應鏈重新定位的政策，其中還包括考慮美國 MCA 對美國工業本身的考慮，以及與美國的關係其內的國家，比如說美國和西方國家的勢力範圍

In this sense, I do not expect -- I would expect that this will be analyzed carefully.

從這個意義上說，我不期望——我希望對此進行仔細分析。

And taking into consideration, let's say the existing contractual relation or the existing agreement that are in place.

考慮到現有的合約關係或現有協議。

Now, in the case, by the way of an increase in general of the tariff within this space, you have to take into consideration that today, we basically we are able to produce all what we are selling into the United States on the capacity that we have installed in the United States.

現在，在這種情況下，透過提高這一領域的關稅，你必須考慮到，今天，我們基本上能夠以以下能力生產我們銷往美國的所有產品：我們已經在美國安裝了。

We may complement some specific product for some specific client.

我們可能會為某些特定客戶補充一些特定產品。

But in general, we have the largest production capability in the United States.

但總的來說，我們擁有美國最大的生產能力。

So we will be able to react and to serve the market in any scenario, in different conditions.

因此，我們將能夠在任何情況、不同條件下做出反應並為市場提供服務。

But as I repeat, I think we need to wait for this policy to be [fleet and] organized in a more specific way before having a clear understanding of it.

但正如我重複的那樣，我認為我們需要等待這項政策以更具體的方式[艦隊和]組織起來，然後才能對其有一個清晰的了解。

In general, I think if the orientation of tariff is to defend the domestic industry and to promote industrial activity to the States.

總的來說，我認為關稅的方向是為了保護國內產業並促進美國的產業活動。

Tenaris is a company that will be basically favored by this because we have capacity in it, and we will be able to supply our client in the present condition from within.

泰納瑞斯是一家基本上會受到青睞的公司，因為我們有能力，我們將能夠在目前的情況下從內部為我們的客戶提供服務。

Great.

偉大的。

That's exactly what I wanted to get answered.

這正是我想要得到的答案。

My follow up is just thinking about kind of near-term thoughts on kind of volumes and in EBITDA margins.

我的後續行動只是考慮對銷售和 EBITDA 利潤率的近期想法。

It does look like Paolo, the second half of '24 is matching what you mentioned at the recent Investor Day.

保羅，24 年下半年的情況確實與您在最近的投資者日提到的相符。

But maybe the shape is a little bit different with higher 3Q results versus 4Q.

但也許形狀有點不同，第三季的結果高於第四季。

I was wondering if you could give us your thoughts on maybe how EBITDA margin could look in 4Q.

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對第四季度 EBITDA 利潤率的看法。

And if you had any visibility about trends into the first half of '25?

您是否了解 25 年上半年的趨勢？

Well, you're right, we are in line with the expectation for the second semester of 2025.

嗯，你說得對，我們對2025年第二學期的預期是一致的。

Now, in the fourth quarter, we will have -- the volume will be slightly lower, something in the range of the mid-teens compared to the third quarter.

現在，在第四季度，我們的銷量將略低，與第三季度相比，大約在十幾歲。

The same will be basically for the sales.

銷售方面也基本相同。

And the EBITDA -- the margin will remain more or less in line with the margin that we had in the third Q.

EBITDA－利潤率將或多或少與我們在第三季的利潤率保持一致。

So as you say, the third quarter will be stronger than the fourth quarter.

所以正如你所說，第三季將強於第四季。

On average the semester, the second half would not be far from in line with what we anticipated.

平均而言，下半年的情況與我們的預期相去不遠。

Now in the first quarter of 2025, we expect to have an increase around in the low-teens for volume and revenue and the margin will remain more or less again in line with the second half of 2025.

現在到了 2025 年第一季度，我們預計銷量和收入將出現兩位數左右的增長，並且利潤率將或多或少地再次與 2025 年下半年保持一致。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

2024, Sorry, 2024 in line with this.

2024，抱歉，2024 與此一致。

Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

馬克·比安奇，TD·考恩。

Hi, thank you.

你好，謝謝。

I was curious to hear some more about the upside you see in Argentina and Mexico.

我很想了解更多有關阿根廷和墨西哥的優勢的資訊。

I think I heard you say that there was a pipeline award that you have now for Argentina.

我想我聽到你說你現在為阿根廷頒發了管道獎。

Maybe talk to us about when that that starts to flow through results.

也許可以和我們談談什麼時候開始產生結果。

And then just any sense of the magnitude of what kind of increase from those countries could be coming through to Tenaris?

那麼，泰納瑞斯可能會從這些國家獲得多少成長？

Thank you, Marc.

謝謝你，馬克。

Well, in Argentina you have followed in the changes in the economy are moving in the right direction.

嗯，在阿根廷，你所關注的經濟變化正在朝著正確的方向發展。

Inflation is going down, the deficit is under control.

通貨膨脹正在下降，赤字得到控制。

The sector of the law that is being approved is introducing changes in the hydrocarbon sector in the labor area.

正在批准的法律部門正在對勞動領域的碳氫化合物部門進行變革。

So the transformation is advancing.

因此，轉型正在推進。

The country risk is going down substantially.

國家風險大幅下降。

And the Argentina is moving in the right direction.

阿根廷正在朝著正確的方向前進。

Now we start to see also investment coming into the energy sector at the pace that is allowed by the need to launch project and so on.

現在，我們開始看到能源領域的投資以啟動專案等的需要所允許的速度進行。

If you have seen also the sales of Exxon assets in Vaca Muerta has taken an important step.

如果您也看到埃克森美孚在瓦卡穆爾塔的資產出售已邁出重要一步。

I mean Exxon decided to assign this to one of the bidders.

我的意思是埃克森美孚決定將其分配給其中一位投標者。

So now we may expect also that in this case, there will be project that start to be developed.

所以現在我們也可以預期，在這種情況下，會有專案開始開發。

In the case of the pipeline, we receive an order for the first phase of the Vaca Muerta Sur.

就管道而言，我們收到了 Vaca Muerta Sur 第一階段的訂單。

This is the largest pipeline for evacuation of oil.

這是最大的石油疏散管道。

It is the key for opening the door to additional production of oil in Vaca Muerta.

這是打開瓦卡穆爾塔增產石油之門的鑰匙。

This we will start to see, let's say delivery of this pipeline at the end of the first quarter of 2025 because now we receive the advance payment that we start the cycle of buying steel and start producing.

我們將開始看到這一點，假設這條管道將於 2025 年第一季末交付，因為現在我們收到了預付款，我們開始購買鋼材並開始生產。

So we will start to deliver at the end of the first quarter.

所以我們將在第一季末開始交付。

But we also -- I expect that with the different moving part in the economy and in the energy sector, some new rigs will start to be added in the coming months and gradually the capacity of the system will increase to be prepared for the expansion of the evacuation capacity of oil.

但我也預計，隨著經濟和能源領域的不同變化，未來幾個月將開始增加一些新的鑽井平台，系統的容量將逐漸增加，為擴張做好準備。

I think we will see this during 2025.

我想我們會在 2025 年看到這一點。

Rigs may increase in my view in the range of 40 or plus rigs compared to what we are today.

在我看來，與今天相比，鑽機數量可能會增加 40 台或更多。

Possibilities will take, let's say 2025 to materialize.

假設要到 2025 年，這種可能性才會成為現實。

But gradually by the end of 2025, we should arrive in Argentina with an increased number of rigs.

但到 2025 年底，我們抵達阿根廷的鑽孔機數量應該會逐漸增加。

I expect between 40% or 50% more than what we have today.

我預計比現在多 40% 或 50%。

That's very good.

那很好。

In Mexico?

在墨西哥？

Mexico?

墨西哥？

The second point also in Mexico, Mexico is the situation we see in Mexico is influenced by the change in the government.

第二點也是在墨西哥，墨西哥是我們看到墨西哥的情況受到政府更迭的影響。

We do not know yet how the new administration, Mexico will intervene on the energy policy and on the refinancing of Pemex.

我們尚不知道墨西哥新政府將如何幹預能源政策和墨西哥國家石油公司的再融資。

Probably I think this quarter has been a very low quarter in terms of activity from Pemex and the rest of the system.

也許我認為本季是墨西哥國家石油公司和系統其他部門的活動非常低的季度。

There is an expectation for the decision that the new government may take in refinancing Pemex, deciding how to promote investment in the energy sector.

人們期待新政府可能做出對墨西哥國家石油公司再融資的決定，決定如何促進能源領域的投資。

We are positive in this because we see that the new administration is sending signals that they will promote investment in the energy sector, not only in the oil and gas, but also in the renewable.

我們對此持積極態度，因為我們看到新政府正在發出信號，表明他們將促進對能源部門的投資，不僅是石油和天然氣，還包括再生能源。

I think we will see the policy to be articulated and give some visibility in the first quarter of 2025.

我認為我們將在 2025 年第一季看到該政策的闡明並給出一些可見度。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you for all of that.

謝謝你所做的一切。

I just had one other as it relates to the capital return.

我剛剛還有另一件事，因為它與資本回報有關。

And I know, well you'll formalize this plan in May, but as we think about your willingness to maybe dip into the cash balance to support capital return, what sort of cash balance does the company need to just run the business?

我知道，您將在五月正式確定該計劃，但當我們考慮您是否願意動用現金餘額來支持資本回報時，公司需要什麼樣的現金餘額來運營業務？

Because certainly the current level is much more than you probably need.

因為目前的水平肯定比您可能需要的要高得多。

Well, before getting into this, let me do a correction because I was reviewing the notes here.

好吧，在開始討論之前，讓我先更正一下，因為我正在查看這裡的筆記。

I may when -- before responding to the question of Arun, I was saying that in the fourth quarter, the level of the volume reduction will be in the level of meeting.

我可能會——在回答阿倫的問題之前，我說過第四季度銷量減少的水平將達到會議的水平。

This is not -- it will be a single digit down compared to the third quarter.

這不是——與第三季相比將下降個位數。

I don't want to be misunderstood on this.

我不想在這件事上被誤解。

So the single digit

所以個位數

--

--

And double digit up?

還有兩位數上漲？

Sorry, it's not double digits of single digit and the double digit up in the first quarter of 2025.

抱歉，這不是個位數的兩位數，也不是 2025 年第一季的兩位數成長。

I think it will go up.

我認為它會上漲。

I think in the first quarter of 2025, we will go up by around 10% or something like this.

我認為到 2025 年第一季度，我們的成長率將達到 10% 左右。

Thank you for the clarification.

謝謝您的澄清。

Yes, sorry for the clarification because I have it here.

是的，很抱歉需要澄清，因為我這裡有。

Now, on the question of the cash, I think this is up to the shareholder to decide and to the Board to indicate.

現在，關於現金問題，我認為這由股東決定並由董事會表明。

I think that now when we look at the $4 billion and without a visible target for M&A or major operation, it is logical and is rational to proceed in the buyback and increase in dividend.

我認為，現在我們看到這40億美元，在沒有明確的併購或重大營運目標的情況下，進行回購和增加股息是合乎邏輯和理性的。

But this is also something that we need to evaluate over time.

但這也是我們需要隨著時間的推移進行評估的。

I think that at the beginning of in 2025, we will have a better understanding of potential opportunity that we may have all around the world in expanding our level of activity.

我認為，在 2025 年初，我們將更了解世界各地可能擁有的擴大我們活動水平的潛在機會。

And this will be an important factor to consider, which would be the best capital allocation for Tenaris.

這將是一個需要考慮的重要因素，這將是泰納瑞斯的最佳資本配置。

I don't think we are now in a position to determine which would be the capital allocation looking ahead, especially in a situation that has so many uncertainty in the different areas in which we operate.

我認為我們現在無法確定未來的資本配置，特別是在我們經營的不同領域存在如此多不確定性的情況下。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回來。

Stephen Gengaro, Stifel.

史蒂芬·根加羅，斯蒂菲爾。

Thanks, good morning, good afternoon, everybody.

謝謝大家，早安，下午好。

I think two for me.

我認為對我來說有兩個。

The first and it gets the kind of cash usages and maybe even the M&A side.

第一個是現金使用，甚至可能是併購方面。

When we think about the kind of what you have done over the last 20 years as far as M&A right, everything from Maverick on through recent deals, it all seems to be kind of in the same line of business.

當我們思考過去 20 年在併購方面所做的事情時，從 Maverick 到最近的交易，這一切似乎都屬於同一業務領域。

I'm just curious how you think internally about what -- would you go outside of those product lines at all and maybe kind of how far outside you'd go from kind of a manufacturing versus a service business?

我只是好奇你在內部是如何思考的——你會跳出這些產品線，也許你會跳出多遠，遠離製造業和服務業？

Well, when we look at the M&A considering where we can leverage our know how, our local presence, our positioning, so usually we look at this from a point of view of the competitive advantage that we may have or create through M&A.

嗯，當我們考慮併購時，我們會考慮在哪裡可以利用我們的專業知識、我們的本地影響力、我們的定位，所以通常我們會從我們透過併購可能擁有或創造的競爭優勢的角度來看待這一問題。

We do not look at this from a point of view of diversification, we look at this from the point of view of competitive advantage that we can create.

我們不是從多元化的角度來看這個問題，而是從我們可以創造的競爭優勢的角度來看這個問題。

Our is not to diversify, this is up to the shareholder, our is to maximize the potential and the capability of the company.

我們不是想要多元化，這取決於股東，我們是要最大限度地發揮公司的潛力和能力。

So that's the approach that we're taking.

這就是我們正在採取的方法。

And we have limitations sometimes coming from antitrust limitation because of the size of our operation or from this perception that may be different for what we are prepared to take.

有時我們會受到反壟斷限制，因為我們的業務規模或這種看法可能與我們準備採取的措施不同。

But these are the criteria we are using to evaluate where to move and how to move.

但這些是我們用來評估搬到哪裡以及如何搬家的標準。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the other question I had at maybe a higher level, but you've alluded to this in the past and I'm curious what your current thinking is on the margin front.

我的另一個問題可能是在更高的層面上，但你過去曾提到過這一點，我很好奇你目前在邊緣方面的想法是什麼。

You've done a great job over the last couple of years, getting margins high and maintaining at a pretty healthy level.

在過去的幾年裡，你們做得很好，利潤率很高，並保持在相當健康的水平。

Where do you see kind of margins sort of flowing out on a normalized basis?

您認為在正常化的基礎上，利潤在哪裡流出？

Like should we think about kind of low to mid-[20%s] as a pretty good normalized run rate or how do you think about that?

就像我們應該將低到中 [20%s] 視為一個相當好的標準化運行率，或者您如何看待這一點？

I think that Tenaris is a highly differentiated company.

我認為泰納瑞斯是一家高度差異化的公司。

So really within our realm, which is the realm of oil and gas service company, we are a highly differentiated company.

因此，實際上在我們的領域，即石油和天然氣服務公司的領域，我們是一家高度差異化的公司。

And if you look at how things evolved in the last 20 years, we extended our differentiation.

如果你看看過去 20 年事情的演變，你會發現我們擴大了我們的差異化。

First on product, then on regional deployment, then on service.

首先是產品，然後是區域部署，然後是服務。

And this differentiation translate into higher margin compared to other company operating in the same field.

與同一領域的其他公司相比，這種差異化意味著更高的利潤。

I don't think we ended up our journey in this direction.

我認為我們的旅程並沒有朝著這個方向結束。

We are continuously looking on how we can create a competitive advantage also for our client.

我們不斷尋求如何為我們的客戶創造競爭優勢。

You see here, for instance, in the acquisition of Shawcor and some of the award that we received in the last -- during this year.

例如，您在這裡看到了對 Shawcor 的收購以及我們去年（今年）獲得的一些獎項。

We have been able to build a solid relation with our client, creating value for them highly differentiation for us.

我們已經能夠與客戶建立牢固的關係，為他們創造價值，為我們帶來高度差異化。

In this sense if you think the change also in the administration and the position that will be taken about China is also to my point -- to our point of view is that to some extent increasing our differentiation because it's allowing us to focus and in some case to present to the client offering.

從這個意義上說，如果你認為政府的變化以及對中國採取的立場也符合我的觀點——我們的觀點是，在某種程度上增加了我們的差異化，因為它讓我們能夠集中精力，在某些方面向客戶展示的案例。

There is excellent from the point of view of quality service deployment, also from the point of view of environment.

從服務部署品質的角度來看，以及從環境的角度來看，都有出色的表現。

We are the most low carbon company with the more aggressive probably plans for decarbonization.

我們是最低碳的公司，擁有更積極的脫碳計劃。

We will -- we now know as you know in construction for the second eolic park in Argentina.

正如你們所知，我們現在正在建造阿根廷第二個風成公園。

By the end of '25, we will be 100% renewable in our supply of energy.

到 25 年底，我們的能源供應將 100% 可再生。

I mean, we are investing in this.

我的意思是，我們正在對此進行投資。

So this differentiation, in our view, should allow us to look for margin that, in my view, should be higher than where we are today.

因此，我們認為，這種差異化應該使我們能夠尋找比今天更高的利潤。

Great.

偉大的。

No, that's great color.

不，那是很棒的顏色。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, I would not like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

此時此刻，我不想將會議轉回喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞 (Giovanni Sardagna) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you Gigi.

謝謝吉吉。

And well, I think we have another question.

好吧，我想我們還有另一個問題。

Rodrigo Almeida, Santander.

羅德里戈·阿爾梅達，桑坦德銀行。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

So I just have a couple of follow-ups here.

所以我在這裡只有一些後續行動。

I think the first one is related to the -- maybe the outlook that we talked about regarding the short term.

我認為第一個可能與我們討論的短期前景有關。

And I wanted to get an update on the $200 million cost saving project that you guys are working on.

我想了解你們正在進行的 2 億美元成本節約項目的最新情況。

And whether this is already included in this sort of guidance that we're talking about for fourth quarter and first quarter.

這是否已經包含在我們正在討論的第四季度和第一季的此類指導中。

And what is the progress of this cost saving projects?

這個成本節約專案進度如何？

And then some additional color on South America, where we talk about Argentina a little bit and then we mentioned the project in Brazil, the project with Petrobras and the projects with Equinor as well.

然後是關於南美的一些額外內容，我們稍微討論了一下阿根廷，然後我們提到了巴西的項目、與巴西國家石油公司的項目以及與挪威國家石油公司的項目。

How soon could we expect these volumes, especially for Raia to kick in?

我們多久才能期待這些銷量，尤其是 Raia 的銷售？

And what would be the impact from these projects on your revenues for South America, especially for 2025 because Raia, I guess, it's going to come online very soon at some point.

這些項目對南美洲的收入有何影響，尤其是 2025 年，因為我猜 Raia 很快就會在某個時候上線。

It'd be next two, three years?

接下來的兩年、三年？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Rodrigo.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。

Well, on the first question, we are advancing in our plan.

那麼，關於第一個問題，我們正在推進我們的計劃。

We set the target of the $200 million reduction in our cost.

我們設定的目標是減少 2 億美元的成本。

We are advancing in it.

我們正在這方面取得進展。

We reached first stage of this plan.

我們已達到該計劃的第一階段。

The second stage will come from the investment we have done in our facility in the last quarter.

第二階段將來自我們上季對工廠的投資。

But we are proceeding in line with our expectation, and we are doing well on this.

但我們正在按照我們的預期進行，而且我們在這方面做得很好。

I expect that this will be materializing around more than one third in this first -- second semester of 2024 and the rest in the first semester of 2025.

我預計這一目標將在 2024 年第一至第二學期實現，其餘三分之一將在 2025 年第一學期實現。

Now the question of the project that we are getting in Argentina and Brazil on -- or Raia and also in other parts of the world, these are large line pipe projects.

現在的問題是我們在阿根廷和巴西或拉亞以及世界其他地區開展的項目，這些都是大型管線項目。

I will ask Gabriel to comment on this and when we will be delivering in some of this?

我會請加布里埃爾對此發表評論，我們什麼時候會交付其中的一些內容？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Paolo.

謝謝你，保羅。

Related to some color that you're asking on Latin America, in addition to what Paolo already explained on Argentina and Mexico, let me tell you that, in Brazil, we are proceeding very well with the production and the shipment of Raia pipeline.

與您在拉丁美洲詢問的一些顏色相關，除了保羅已經解釋的關於阿根廷和墨西哥的情況之外，讓我告訴您，在巴西，我們的Raia管道的生產和運輸進展順利。

These shipments for this project started on last quarter and will be concluded in the second quarter of 2025.

該項目的發貨於上個季度開始，將於 2025 年第二季完成。

So production of the pipe and concrete coating is proceeding favorably.

因此，管道和混凝土塗層的生產進展順利。

So this will be a positive impact on Brazil.

所以這將對巴西產生正面的影響。

Regarding the deepwater flow lines risers and insulation coating, Paolo also commented on Buzios 9, deepwater project, this is something that will be delivered into the later part of 2025.

關於深水流線立管和隔熱塗層，Paolo也評論了深水項目Buzios 9，這將在2025年下半年交付。

So, this is also going to be an important contributor of our revenues in offshore Brazil.

因此，這也將成為我們在巴西近海收入的重要貢獻者。

And there, we have regular call-offs for our contracts of conductors, stainless steel completions as well in Petrobras.

在那裡，我們定期取消我們的導體合約、不銹鋼完井合約以及巴西國家石油公司的合約。

So overall, we expect that deepwater Brazil will be an important engine for growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025 and regarding Brazil.

因此，總體而言，我們預計巴西深水區將成為 2024 年第四季和 2025 年巴西經濟成長的重要引擎。

Then onshore Colombia and Ecuador are areas that have been subdued during 2024.

哥倫比亞和厄瓜多爾的陸上地區在 2024 年也受到抑制。

And we don't expect into 2025 any recovery in the drilling activity.

我們預計 2025 年鑽探活動不會有任何復甦。

In these areas is probably about half of what they used to be a couple of years ago.

這些地區的人口數量可能只有幾年前的一半左右。

So these areas, we don't expect any rebound in the short term.

所以這些領域，我們預期短期內不會出現反彈。

If you go to the Guyana-Surinam Caribbean region is a region that has continuously expanded in production, especially on the Guyana, ExxonMobil development, where we participate with larger OD conductors and casing tubulars and also with the insulation coating for the pipeline demand in that area.

如果你去圭亞那-蘇利南加勒比地區，這是一個生產不斷擴大的地區，特別是在圭亞那，埃克森美孚的開發中，我們參與了更大外徑的導體和套管，以及滿足該地區管道需求的絕緣塗層。

That continues at a steady state.

這種情況持續保持穩定狀態。

Six drilling rigs operating in the area, and that this will continue to be the case into 2025.

該地區有六台鑽機正在作業，這種情況將持續到 2025 年。

And Paolo commented in the opening remarks about the important award of the pipeline and coating regarding the total new development in Surinam and FID.

Paolo 在開幕詞中評論了蘇利南和 FID 的全新開發項目中管道和塗層的重要獎項。

The new FID that is opening a new basin.

新的 FID 正在開闢一個新盆地。

This is a pioneer development that we will start delivering the later part into 2025.

這是一項開創性的開發，我們將在 2025 年開始交付後期部分。

This is important because it's the first phase, but probably not the last one.

這很重要，因為這是第一階段，但可能不是最後一個階段。

And this award is important, as Paolo was saying, it's a combination is a bundle of tubulars and the coating the track record of Shawcor to Tenaris.

這個獎項很重要，正如 Paolo 所說，它是一捆管狀管材的組合，並覆蓋了 Shawcor 到 Tenaris 的業績記錄。

And also from the tubular point of view there has been a very complicated and sophisticated spec to meet.

而且從管材的角度來看，還需要滿足非常複雜和精密的規格。

So it's a testament to our R&D and production capability.

這證明了我們的研發和生產能力。

So these are -- these offshore awards are going to give us a good visibility of the backlog into 2025 and even some of them into 2026.

因此，這些離岸獎項將使我們能夠清楚地了解 2025 年甚至 2026 年的積壓情況。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Gabriel.

謝謝你，加布里埃爾。

This for us, are very important because a confirmation of our ability to get in very complex projects in a differentiated way building a backlog even if they are for a long, project that will come to fruition over the long term.

這對我們來說非常重要，因為確認我們有能力以差異化的方式參與非常複雜的項目，建立積壓的項目，即使它們是一個長期項目，從長遠來看會取得成果。

Are very, very important in -- for our positioning in the complex offshore and for our building the backlog for the long term, which is also very important for us.

對於我們在複雜的離岸市場的定位以及我們建立長期積壓訂單來說，這非常非常重要，這對我們來說也非常重要。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you so much for the call.

非常感謝您的來電。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Arun Jayaram, JP Morgan Securities LLC.

阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)，摩根大通證券有限責任公司。

Yes.

是的。

Paolo, sorry to double dip here, but I just wanted to see if we could get a little bit more clarification just sensing a little bit of confusion from the buy side on your outlook comments for 4Q and 1Q '25.

保羅，很抱歉在這裡雙底，但我只是想看看我們是否可以得到更多的澄清，只是感覺到買方對您對 25 年第四季和第一季的展望評論有點困惑。

So, could you just help us understand what you think the sequential impacts will be to revenue in 4Q and 1Q?

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您認為這將對第四季度和第一季的收入產生什麼連續影響？

And just trying to think about revenues versus volume in both of those quarters.

只是想考慮一下這兩個季度的營收與銷售量。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, Arun, that I made -- I gave the wrong indication on the teens and not the teens.

抱歉，阿倫，我做了──我對青少年給了錯誤的指示，而不是青少年。

What we expect is that in the fourth quarter, volume and sales will be lower than in the third quarter by single digit, around 7%, 8%, something in this range, lower in the 4Q than the third Q.

我們預計第四季的銷量和銷售額將比第三季下降個位數，大約7%、8%，在這個範圍內，第四季比第三季要低。

In the first Q in 2025, we expect this to rebound in the range of 10%.

2025 年第一季度，我們預計這一數字將反彈 10% 左右。

We are talking about teens or not teens, we talk about the numbers.

我們談論的是青少年還是非青少年，我們談論的是數字。

But these are estimations that obviously range around what we are in.

但這些估計顯然與我們所處的情況有關。

So, they are moving together, volume and revenue.

因此，它們在銷售和收入上正在同步發展。

And as I was saying, the margin will stay around the same level that we had in the third quarter.

正如我所說，利潤率將保持在第三季的相同水平。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

It is clear now.

現在很清楚了。

Super clear.

超級清晰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sorry Arun.

對不起阿倫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

此時此刻，我想將會議轉回喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞 (Giovanni Sardagna) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Gigi.

謝謝你，吉吉。

And if there are no other questions, we would like to thank you for joining us for our call.

如果沒有其他問題，我們要感謝您參加我們的電話會議。

And we hope to see you soon.

我們希望很快能見到您。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。