Tenaris SA (TS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to Q4 and full-year 2024 Tenaris earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Tenaris 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations Officer.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係官 Giovanni Sardagna。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris 2024 fourth-quarter and annual results conference call.

謝謝你，Gigi，歡迎參加 Tenaris 2024 年第四季和年度業績電話會議。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將在電話會議中討論前瞻性訊息，並且我們的實際結果可能與電話會議中表達或暗示的結果不同。

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer; Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer; and Luca Zanotti, President of our US Operations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Paolo Rocca；我們的財務長 Alicia Mondolo；我們的營運長 Gabriel Podskubka；以及我們美國業務總裁 Luca Zanotti。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.

在請 Paolo 致開幕詞之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們的季度業績。

During the fourth quarter of 2024, sales reached $2.8 billion, down 17% compared with those of the corresponding quarter of the previous year and 2% sequentially, mainly driven by lower volumes and lower average selling prices as price declines in North America were partially offset by a favorable product mix.

2024 年第四季，銷售額達到 28 億美元，比去年同期下降 17%，比上一季下降 2%，主要由於銷量下降和平均銷售價格下降，因為北美的價格下跌被有利的產品組合部分抵消。

Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 6% sequentially to $726 million, and our EBITDA margin increased to 25.5%, mainly reflecting the partial reversal of a provision for ongoing litigation relating to the acquisition of a participation in Usiminas.

本季我們的 EBITDA 環比成長 6%，達到 7.26 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率增至 25.5%，這主要反映了與收購 Usiminas 股權有關的持續訴訟準備金的部分逆轉。

Without taking into account this one-off effect, our EBITDA declined 4% sequentially to $659 million with a margin of 23%.

如果不考慮這一一次性影響，我們的 EBITDA 將季減 4% 至 6.59 億美元，利潤率為 23%。

Average selling prices in our Tubes operating segment decreased by 7% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and 1% sequentially.

我們管材營運部門的平均售價與去年同期相比下降了 7%，與上一季相比下降了 1%。

During the quarter, cash flow from operations was $492 million.

本季度，經營活動現金流為 4.92 億美元。

Our net cash position at the end of the quarter decreased to $3.6 billion following the payment of an interim dividend of $299 million in November of last year, $454 million spent on share buybacks and capital expenditures of $182 million during the quarter.

由於去年 11 月支付了 2.99 億美元的中期股息、本季度花費了 4.54 億美元用於股票回購以及 1.82 億美元的資本支出，我們在本季末的淨現金狀況下降至 36 億美元。

The Board of Directors have decided to propose for approval of the Annual General Shareholders Meeting to be held at the beginning of May, the payment of an annual dividend of $0.83 per share or $1.66 per ADR, which includes the interim dividend of $0.27 per share or $0.54 per ADR that we paid at the end of November last year.

董事會已決定提議在 5 月初舉行的年度股東大會上批准派發每股 0.83 美元或每股 ADR 1.66 美元的年度股息，其中包括我們去年 11 月底派發的每股 0.27 美元或每股 ADR 0.54 美元的中期股息。

If approved, a dividend of $0.56 per share or $1.12 per ADR will be paid on May 21.

如果獲得批准，將於 5 月 21 日支付每股 0.56 美元或每股 ADR 1.12 美元的股息。

Now, I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我請保羅講幾句話。

Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you.

謝謝你，喬瓦尼，大家早安。

2024 was a good year for Tenaris in many aspects.

2024 年對 Tenaris 來說從許多方面來說都是豐收的一年。

We consolidated our leading industry position with a number of major achievements.

取得多項重大成果，產業領先地位進一步鞏固。

We delivered a solid financial result accompanied by higher returns for shareholder and completed a number of investments, which are improving our industrial efficiency and reducing our environmental footprint.

我們取得了穩健的財務業績，為股東帶來了更高的回報，並完成了多項投資，這些投資提高了我們的工業效率並減少了我們的環境影響。

It was, however, marred by an accident that took place at the end of the year, which claimed the lives of two of our employees.

然而，年底發生的一場事故卻破壞了我們的業績，造成兩名員工死亡。

The accident occurred in the heavy equipment maintenance shop of our main plant in Argentina.

事故發生在我們阿根廷主要工廠的重型設備維修車間。

This is a major setback for Tenaris, which has an absolute commitment to safety with its employees and its communities.

這對 Tenaris 來說是一個重大挫折，因為該公司對其員工和社區的安全有著絕對的承諾。

We deeply regret the loss of life and are reinforcing all our action on preventive activities with a focus on critical risk.

我們對生命的逝去深感遺憾，並正在加強一切預防行動，並專注於重大風險。

We ended 2024 with an EBITDA of $3.1 billion and net income of $2.1 billion on net sales of $12.5 billion.

截至 2024 年，我們的 EBITDA 為 31 億美元，淨收入為 21 億美元，淨銷售額為 125 億美元。

Free cash flow amounted to $2.2 billion, all of which was distributed to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

自由現金流為 22 億美元，全部透過股利和股票回購的方式分配給股東。

We are proposing to increase the annual dividend per share by 38% over that for the previous year.

我們建議將年度每股股息較前一年增加 38%。

At the same time, we maintain our net cash position of $3.6 billion.

同時，我們維持36億美元的淨現金狀況。

In North America, consolidation among major shale operators has continued, and we have strengthened our service differentiation with these operators, comprised the operational efficiency, the reliability and the quality that we provide through our rig direct® service.

在北美，主要頁岩營運商之間的整合仍在繼續，我們加強了與這些營運商的服務差異化，包括我們透過 rig direct® 服務提供的營運效率、可靠性和品質。

We have extended our range of Wedge™ Series 400 connection and now provide 24/7 digital well integrity solutions supported by technical specialists and remote monitoring capabilities in addition to our more established run-ready™ service.

我們擴展了 Wedge™ 400 系列連接的範圍，現在除了提供更成熟的 run-ready™ 服務外，還提供由技術專家和遠端監控功能支援的全天候數位井完整性解決方案。

ExxonMobil have honored us with their 2024 Supplier of the Year Award for our extensive efforts in supply chain integration worldwide.

埃克森美孚授予我們 2024 年度供應商獎，以表彰我們在全球供應鏈整合方面所做的廣泛努力。

We have served their operation in various parts of the world over many years.

多年來，我們一直為他們在世界各地的業務提供服務。

And since 2024, we have been serving all their US shale operation as well as their offshore operations in Guyana under long-term agreement.

自 2024 年以來，我們一直根據長期協議為他們的所有美國頁岩業務以及圭亞那的海上業務提供服務。

We were recently awarded the casing supply for the first wells in Shell Sparta 20K project in the US deepwater, following many months of extensive work on product development and testing and the development of 3D mapping technology that enhance pipe collapse resistance using ultra-high collapse steel grades.

經過數月的大量產品開發和測試以及使用超高抗塌陷鋼等級增強管道抗塌陷能力的 3D 測繪技術的開發，我們最近獲得了美國深水殼牌 Sparta 20K 項目首批油井的套管供應合約。

This complements an award to supply BP's Kaskida 20K project and consolidate our leading position in the latest frontier in deepwater development.

該合約是 BP 卡斯基達 20K 專案供應合約的補充，鞏固了我們在深水開發最新領域的領先地位。

We also consolidated our leading position in the Guyana-Suriname deepwater basin with an award to supply line pipe and insulation coating for Total GranMorgu development.

我們還獲得為 Total GranMorgu 開發項目供應管線管道和絕緣塗層的合同，鞏固了我們在圭亞那-蘇利南深水盆地的領先地位。

This achievement was possible, thanks to our successful integration of Shawcor and its pipe coating technologies and project management capabilities.

這項成就得益於我們成功整合了 Shawcor 及其管道塗層技術和專案管理能力。

For other deepwater development, we are delivering line pipe and coating for Equinor Raia project in Brazil and have recently completed deliveries for an offshore pipeline for TPAO Sakarya project in the Black Sea.

對於其他深水開發，我們正在為巴西的 Equinor Raia 項目提供管線管和塗層，最近也完成了為黑海 TPAO Sakarya 項目提供海上管道的交付。

In the Middle East, our contribution to the development to local industrial capability are being recognized.

在中東，我們為當地工業能力發展所做的貢獻正在得到認可。

In Saudi Arabia, we recently won a tender for a major CCS pipeline after Aramco had distinguished our GPC facility with a special quality award.

在沙烏地阿拉伯，在阿美公司授予我們的 GPC 設施特別品質獎之後，我們最近贏得了一條主要 CCS 管道的招標。

In Abu Dhabi, we extended our long-term agreement with ADNOC, while our premium trading facility was certified as an Industry 4.0 digital leader by the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology.

在阿布達比，我們與阿布達比國家石油公司延長了長期協議，同時我們的優質交易設施被工業和先進技術部認證為工業 4.0 數位領導者。

In Mexico, our sales have been affected by a steep decline in drilling activity amidst the financial difficulties of Pemex.

在墨西哥，由於 Pemex 出現財務困難，鑽井活動急劇下滑，我們的銷售受到了影響。

We have, however, taken the opportunity to reduce our credit exposure.

然而，我們已藉此機會減少我們的信貸風險。

In Argentina, drilling activity on oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta is ramping up as pipeline and LNG infrastructure investment moves forward.

在阿根廷，隨著管道和液化天然氣基礎設施投資的推進，瓦卡穆埃爾塔的石油和天然氣生產鑽探活動正在增加。

Over the next months, we will be supplying the oil pipeline that will connect Vaca Muerta to a new deepwater port in Puerto Rosales in Chubut and expect further pipeline investment during the year.

在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將提供連接瓦卡穆埃爾塔和丘布特省羅薩萊斯港新深水港的輸油管道，並預計年內將進一步進行管道投資。

During the year, we completed a series of investment in our industrial system aimed at improving the efficiency of our operation as well as contributing to our decarbonization and environmental objective.

這一年，我們完成了一系列對工業體系的投資，旨在提高我們的營運效率並為我們的脫碳和環境目標做出貢獻。

These include the installation of a new electric arc furnace with modern continuous charging technology in Argentina, the modernization of our Koppel steelmaking facility in the United States, increasing its effective capacity, and the installation of new heat treatment furnace and finishing line at our Dalmine mill in Italy.

其中包括在阿根廷安裝採用現代連續充電技術的新型電弧爐、對我們位於美國的Koppel煉鋼廠進行現代化改造，提高其有效產能，以及在我們位於義大利的Dalmine鋼廠安裝新的熱處理爐和精加工生產線。

At the same time, we are advancing with our second wind farm in Argentina and other investments aimed at increasing the share of renewable energy used in our operation.

同時，我們正在推動位於阿根廷的第二個風電場及其他投資，旨在增加再生能源在我們營運中的份額。

We have also been investing to increase the level of automation and digital system in our industrial and supply chain system, and extend pipe-by-pipe traceability.

我們也一直在投資提高工業和供應鏈系統的自動化和數位化水平，並擴展逐管可追溯性。

As we will show in our annual report that will be published on April 1, we continue to make progress towards our target to reduce the carbon emission of our operations.

正如我們將於 4 月 1 日發布的年度報告中所展示的那樣，我們正在繼續朝著減少營運碳排放的目標邁進。

As the perimeter of our operations has expanded with recent acquisition, we have decided to reset the baseline for our target to cover this expanded perimeter as well as to include inter-mill transportation and other changes aimed at improving reporting transparency.

由於我們最近的收購擴大了業務範圍，我們決定重新設定目標基線，以涵蓋擴大後的範圍，並包括工廠間運輸和其他旨在提高報告透明度的變更。

Looking ahead, with the change in the administration in the United States, we are heading into uncharted territories when it comes to geopolitics and the global trading system.

展望未來，隨著美國政府的更迭，我們將在地緣政治和全球貿易體系方面走向未知領域。

Changes in tariffs and other events could significantly alter the established market environment.

關稅和其他事件的變化可能會顯著改變既定的市場環境。

Tenaris, with its unique positioning, both globally and in North America, the competitive differentiation and financial strength is well placed to navigate the uncertainties ahead.

泰納瑞斯在全球和北美都擁有獨特的地位，其競爭優勢和財務實力使其能夠很好地應對未來的不確定性。

Before closing, I would like to thank Alicia Mondolo ahead of her well-earned retirement for her contribution to Tenaris and the Techint Group over more than 40 years.

最後，我想在 Alicia Mondolo 退休之前，感謝她 40 多年來對 Tenaris 和 Techint 集團的貢獻。

I'm very pleased that we will still be able to benefit from her wise advice in the time ahead.

我很高興我們在未來仍然能夠從她的明智建議中受益。

I would also like to thank all of our employees for their constant commitment and engagement without which the results and achievement of the past year would not have been possible as well as also our customer, our supplier and all the community in which we operate for their ongoing support.

我還要感謝我們所有員工的持續承諾和參與，沒有他們的不懈承諾和參與，我們不可能取得過去一年的成果和成就，同時也要感謝我們的客戶、供應商以及我們所在的整個社區的持續支持。

I'm open now for any question you may have.

我現在願意回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

(操作員指示) Arun Jayaram，摩根大通證券有限責任公司。

My first question is on tariffs.

我的第一個問題是關於關稅的。

Paolo, if the 25% tariffs on imported steel tubulars are implemented by the US Commerce Department, would you still expect Section 232 quotas to remain in place?

Paolo，如果美國商務部對進口鋼管徵收 25% 的關稅，您是否仍認為第 232 條配額會繼續存在？

And I guess the follow-up is, if Section 232 quotas are removed but tariffs are implemented, how do you see the impact on OCTG pricing and import trends, if that were to occur?

我想後續的問題是，如果第 232 條配額被取消但實施關稅，您認為這將對油井管定價和進口趨勢產生什麼影響？

As we say in the opening remark, I mean we are entering into unchartered territories because we have different layers of tariff that has been announced by the American administration, one of which is the 25% tariff in the frame of the 232.

正如我們在開場白中所說的那樣，我們正在進入未知領域，因為美國政府宣布了不同層次的關稅，其中之一就是 232 框架下的 25% 關稅。

But I would expect that in general, the introduction of the 25% in the 232 will have impact on different aspects.

但我預計，總體而言，232 中引入 25% 將對不同方面產生影響。

On one side, it's very likely that the level of price in the United States will gradually increase because in the end, the market imports are relevant, has a relevant share of the US OCTG, particularly OCTG product.

一方面，美國的價格水準很可能會逐漸上升，因為最終市場進口是相關的，占美國油井管的相關份額，特別是油​​井管產品。

So the impact of the 25% tariff will reflect in our view into increase in prices.

因此，我們認為 25% 關稅的影響將反映在價格上漲上。

As far as the quota are concerned, we have no indication which is the intention of the US administration.

就配額而言，我們不知道美國政府的意圖是什麼。

But overall, the 232 overall orientation has been in the past and today to support the domestic industry and to allow to raise the level of utilization within the United States.

但總體而言，232 的總體方向在過去和現在都是支持國內產業，並允許提高美國國內的利用率。

So we expect that the administration will monitor carefully the volume coming from the different sources with the overall aim of defending the interest of the domestic industry.

因此，我們預期政府能夠仔細監控來自不同來源的出口量，整體目標是維護國內產業的利益。

In this sense, Tenaris is well positioned.

從這個意義上來說，泰納瑞斯處於有利地位。

We are producing almost all of our need of pipes in the United States.

我們所需的幾乎所有管道都是在美國生產的。

And so we think we are well positioned to manage what is coming.

因此我們認為我們有能力應對即將發生的事情。

It is true that we are producing a large part, but not all of our steel need.

確實，我們生產了我們所需的大部分鋼鐵，但不是全部。

And we may be paying tariffs on some of the steel that we may be importing.

我們可能要對進口的部分鋼鐵繳納關稅。

But still, this will not, let's say, affect substantially our overall position in the States.

但這仍然不會對我們在美國整體地位產生重大影響。

This is what we can expect in our view from the introduction of the tariffs under 232.

我們認為，這就是我們根據 232 項關稅出台後可以期待的結果。

As you say, as you know, we will understand better in March when this will announce the details of what will be the approach.

正如您所說，正如您所知，我們將在三月更好地了解情況，屆時將公佈具體方法。

And at the same time, in the coming weeks, we will also understand the extent of other tariffs that may be introduced that could have an impact on our business, in the US or worldwide.

同時，在接下來的幾週內，我們也將了解可能出台的其他關稅的程度，這些關稅可能會對我們在美國或全球的業務產生影響。

That's helpful to understand your view on that.

這有助於理解您對此的看法。

So expect maybe pricing to get better and then perhaps the policies are supportive of domestic manufacturing and you manufacture the bulk of your North America -- support your North America sales through domestic manufacturing.

因此，預計定價可能會變得更好，然後也許政策會支持國內製造業，而您可以製造大部分北美產品——透過國內製造業支持您的北美銷售。

That's clear.

這很清楚。

Maybe a follow-up, Paolo.

也許是後續，保羅。

Tenaris has a unique lens into what is going on in Argentina.

泰納瑞斯對阿根廷正在發生的事情有著獨特的視角。

So I was wondering if you could help us think about some of the potential growth prospects for Tenaris between just OCTG long-haul pipe and some of the services that you provide in Argentina between coiled tubing and as well in frac.

所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們思考 Tenaris 在石油專用管長途輸送管以及您在阿根廷提供的連續油管和壓裂服務之間的一些潛在增長前景。

I think you have some pressure pumping capacity in country.

我認為你們國家有一定的壓力泵送能力。

Yes.

是的。

Well, we are very positive on the development and the investment in the energy sector in Argentina.

我們對阿根廷能源領域的發展和投資持非常積極的態度。

We commented also in the last quarter that we expect a substantial increase of the rigs operating in Vaca Muerta.

我們在上個季度也評論說，我們預計在瓦卡穆埃爾塔運營的鑽機數量將大幅增加。

Now this is happening in preparation of the expansion of the capacity of evacuation of oil from Vaca Muerta.

目前，這項工作正是為了擴大瓦卡穆埃爾塔的石油輸送能力做準備。

The big pipeline that is called the VMOS, is under construction.

被稱為 VMOS 的大型管道正在建設中。

We have the order for the pipes and the order for the construction has also been negotiated and sign.

管道的訂單我們已經有，施工的訂單也已經談好並簽字了。

So this pipeline will go on and the oil companies are preparing the wells and the upstream to supply the additional volume that will be exported from Argentina.

因此，這條管道將繼續運行，石油公司正在準備油井和上游，以供應阿根廷出口的額外石油量。

At the same time, there are some additional pipelines that needs to connect this different part of Vaca Muerta to the pipeline, the main pipeline.

同時，還有一些額外的管道需要將瓦卡穆埃爾塔的這一不同部分與主管道連接起來。

So we see this network of pipelines going on with contract and part of which is also for us.

因此，我們看到這個管道網路正在按照合約進行建設，其中一部分也是為我們而建。

And we see the company mobilizing rigs for this.

我們看到該公司正在為此調動鑽孔機。

We were saying that the rigs in Vaca Muerta could increase for the 31, 32 that were operating last year to a level of 42 or plus by the end of the year.

我們原本計劃，到今年年底，瓦卡穆埃爾塔的鑽井數量將從去年的 31 到 32 座增加到 42 座甚至更多。

Things are moving.

事情正在進展。

Some companies are taking decision now.

一些公司現在正在做出決定。

Maybe we may have an important increase in the rigs.

也許我們的鑽孔機數量會大幅增加。

We are preparing for this.

我們正在為此做準備。

So we are also expanding our capability in the fracking.

因此，我們也在擴大水力壓裂的能力。

We are adding a set for responding to something that we expect an increase in the demand for fracking.

我們正在添加一套措施來應對我們預計水力壓裂需求將增加的情況。

In January, in Argentina, we reached in the market, the record for fracking during one month.

今年 1 月，我們在阿根廷創下了市場單月水力壓裂的最高紀錄。

And also, we see that our sets are fully booked for the coming months.

而且我們發現未來幾個月的演出都已經預訂滿了。

We are adding one that will come during -- in the course of 2025.

我們將在 2025 年期間新增一項。

And accompanying this the base in Neuquén and coil tube for satisfying this need.

並附帶位於內烏肯的基地和盤管以滿足此需求。

So we are positive in this.

因此我們對此持正面態度。

And hopefully, this trend will go on during 2026 just to increase the production of oil that will be able to evacuate from Vaca Muerta.

希望這種趨勢能夠在 2026 年繼續下去，以增加能夠從瓦卡穆埃爾塔撤離的石油產量。

The capacity of the VMOS is large and will require investment to be filled up.

VMOS的容量很大，需要投資來填補。

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

亞歷山德羅·波齊（Alessandro Pozzi），Mediobanca。

I have two questions and they are related, I guess, to the reaction of the share price today.

我有兩個問題，我猜它們與今天股價的反應有關。

And I'm still trying to figure out if it's maybe the outlook that has been perceived to be a little bit less constructive compared to what you mentioned in the last call or maybe whether just expectations around announcement of share buybacks.

我仍在試圖弄清，是否是因為與您上次電話會議中提到的相比，前景被認為不那麼具有建設性，或者僅僅是對股票回購公告的預期。

And that leads to the first question.

這就引出了第一個問題。

I was wondering if you can maybe give us your thoughts about what could be sales and margins evolution in Q1 and maybe in the first half of 2025 because we've seen the recovery in Pipe Logix.

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對第一季以及 2025 年上半年的銷售和利潤率變化的看法，因為我們已經看到 Pipe Logix 的復甦。

So maybe it's natural to expect a progression in top line and margins in the coming quarters.

因此，也許可以自然地預期未來幾季的營業收入和利潤率會有所提高。

And the second question is on the share buyback.

第二個問題是關於股票回購。

Of course, the program is ongoing still and you probably cannot say much about the new one.

當然，該計劃仍在進行中，您可能無法透露太多有關新計劃的資訊。

But I was wondering, shall we assume the new buyback to be in line with the $1.2 billion that you announced initially?

但我想知道，我們是否應該假設新的回購金額與您最初宣布的 12 億美元一致？

Or perhaps you -- maybe you want to allocate some of the capital to potential acquisitions in the US that could expand your capacity given the new, let's say, geopolitical outlook.

或者也許您想將部分資金分配給美國的潛在收購，以便在新的地緣政治前景下擴大您的產能。

And yes, that's my two questions.

是的，這就是我的兩個問題。

Well, on the first one, we say in the outlook in our press release, we expect the first quarter to have a margin more or less in line with the margin of the 4Q.

嗯，關於第一個問題，我們在新聞稿中的展望中說過，我們預計第一季的利潤率將與第四季的利潤率大致持平。

This is the results, I would say, of two drivers.

我想說，這是兩位車手的成果。

On one side, we will have in the first quarter of 2025 less volume to Europe.

一方面，2025 年第一季我們至歐洲的貨運量將會減少。

In reality is the big pipelines and OCTG that we sold in Turkey that are considered in our line as part of the line of Europe.

事實上，我們在土耳其銷售的大型管道和油井管被視為我們的歐洲生產線的一部分。

In the fourth quarter, we did a substantial shipment in that region that will not be repeated in the first quarter.

第四季度，我們在該地區的出貨量很大，而第一季不會再出現這種情況。

On the other side, there is a positive impact of the increase in price and some increase in volume in some of the region, including the United States.

另一方面，包括美國在內的部分地區價格上漲和銷售增加也產生了正面影響。

So the results of this is our expectation of margin that will be more or less on line or hopefully a little better if the Pipe Logix continue to drive up in February, March.

因此，如果 Pipe Logix 在 2 月和 3 月繼續上漲，我們預計利潤率將或多或少保持在線水平，或者希望會更好一些。

Now, as far as the first half and so the second semester, we expect improvement, but an increase in our margin, a slight increase in our margin, but this will be influenced by the tariff decision on the beginning of March.

現在，就上半年和第二季而言，我們預計情況會有所改善，利潤率會有所增加，略有增加，但這將受到 3 月初關稅決定的影響。

Because if tariffs are announced and the administration is making clear the approach to the quota for different countries, then the market will anticipate a reaction and will move on, and we may see a change in, let's say, the recovery in prices.

因為如果宣布徵收關稅，並且政府明確針對不同國家的配額政策，那麼市場將預期其反應並繼續前進，我們可能會看到價格回升等變化。

We see a, let's say, positive trend frankly because at the end, we expect the administration is acting exactly in the direction of strengthening the domestic industry, and we are a domestic industry for the American market.

坦白說，我們看到了一種正面的趨勢，因為最終我們預期政府的行動正是朝著加強國內產業的方向發展，而我們是美國市場的國內產業。

So we are positive in the result of this.

因此我們對這個結果持樂觀態度。

And we are prepared to absorb the marginal cost that will derive from the supply of steel and eventually the payment of some tariff on it.

我們準備承擔鋼鐵供應產生的邊際成本，並最終支付部分關稅。

This is where we are, and this is what we can see.

這就是我們所處的位置，這就是我們所看到的。

We must admit that our visibility for the, let's say, the second quarter and even beyond this is pretty limited, considering the number of moving parts that are affecting our market and our sector today.

我們必須承認，考慮到目前影響我們市場和產業的許多因素，我們對第二季甚至更長的可見度相當有限。

So do you expect maybe a marginal improvement in Q2 in margins?

那麼您是否預計第二季的利潤率會略有改善？

I was wondering, should we expect maybe margins to recover to 25% at some point during 2025?

我想知道，我們是否應該預期利潤率在 2025 年的某個時候會恢復到 25％？

Well, we will expect it to increase from where we are to now.

嗯，我們預計它會從現在的水平增加。

In the range that you're mentioning, we should -- this is what we can expect for the second quarter and going beyond.

在您提到的範圍內，我們應該—這是我們對第二季及以後的預期。

And the second question is the buyback.

第二個問題是回購。

On this -- let's say, on the buyback, the decision will be taken, first of all, by the Board of Directors on April 1 in evaluating the situation and in deciding if -- how to include or if to include this item in the agenda of the general assembly that will meet in May.

關於這一點，比如說，關於回購，董事會首先將於 4 月 1 日做出決定，評估情況並決定是否——如何或是否將此事納入 5 月份股東大會的議程。

So then this will be up to the Board and then up to the assembly of the company to decide if we give to the Board of Directors the authority to enter into a new program of buyback after May.

因此，這將由董事會和公司大會決定是否授權董事會在 5 月之後制定新的回購計畫。

For the time being, we are advancing in our buyback.

目前，我們正在推動回購。

The present program is almost completed.

目前的計劃已經基本完成。

And I mean, it will be influenced by whether you can do acquisitions in the US.

我的意思是，這會受到你是否可以在美國進行收購的影響。

I mean, there was an attempt to acquire Benteler some time ago.

我的意思是，不久前曾有人試圖收購 Benteler。

But Trump administration just the other day confirmed the new merger review guidelines of the previous administration.

但川普政府前幾天才確認了上一屆政府新的合併審查指南。

So maybe M&A in the US may not be as likely as we thought maybe before.

因此，在美國進行併購的可能性可能不如我們之前想像的那麼大。

Well, but the Board will consider all the elements, the situation, the dynamic of the market, the opportunity that we have to allocate our capital.

嗯，但是董事會會考慮所有因素、情況、市場動態以及我們分配資本的機會。

We have a large cash in our book.

我們的帳面現金充足。

So the decision will be taken, taking into consideration opportunity for investment perspective of the business and the long-term view for the company.

因此，在做出決定時，我們會考慮業務的投資機會以及公司的長期前景。

Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen.

馬克·比安奇（Marc Bianchi），TD Cowen。

First to follow up if we could, on the buyback discussion just quickly.

首先，如果可以的話，我們快速跟進一下回購討論。

There were some comments at your September analyst event in London that sort of talked about plans around the buyback.

在您九月於倫敦舉行的分析師活動中，有人談到了有關回購計劃的評論。

Is it fair to conclude that those comments from September are still sort of in place and you're thinking about it the same way?

是否可以得出這樣的結論：九月的那些評論仍然有效，並且您也是這樣認為的？

Or has there been a change in the Board's view of how the buyback should be positioned?

還是董事會對於回購定位的看法改變了？

I don't think there has been a change in the overall view for this.

我認為整體觀點並沒有改變。

But for sure, since the meeting that we had, many things happened in the world and the position and the policy of the new American administration is for sure a factor that will need to be considered by the Board in deciding the strategy for the future.

但可以肯定的是，自從我們舉行會議以來，世界上發生了許多事情，新美國政府的立場和政策肯定是董事會在決定未來戰略時需要考慮的一個因素。

Many things concerning the opportunity for investment, the dynamic of the energy sector.

許多事情涉及投資機會、能源產業的動態。

I personally think that the new administration have a strong drive in supporting the energy industry.

我個人認為新政府對支持能源產業有很強的動力。

They are launching a program for -- let's say, they organize the energy sector in the frame of energy emergency.

他們正在啟動一項計畫——比如說，他們在能源緊急情況的框架內組織能源部門。

They are speeding up all the process of permitting and so on and so forth.

他們正在加快所有許可證等等的進程。

So something will be moving in our -- in my view, in the energy sector and maybe that in this environment, also the opportunity for acquisition in area in part of the world that could be interesting for Tenaris may be more open, and we will have to reconsider this and analyze this and the perspective of the company as a basis for deciding what to do and suggest it to the Board what to do.

所以，在我看來，在能源領域，一些事情將會發生改變，也許在這種環境下，Tenaris 在世界部分地區進行收購的機會可能會更加開放，我們必須重新考慮和分析這一點，並以公司的觀點為基礎來決定做什麼，並向董事會提出建議。

The other question I had was on Mexico.

我的另一個問題是關於墨西哥的。

So you talked about the sharp decline in activity.

所以你談到了活動的急劇下降。

I think the market has been uncertain as to how Mexico unfolds from here, but it seems like maybe there's some incremental plan in place from them.

我認為市場一直不確定墨西哥接下來的局勢將如何發展，但看起來他們可能已經制定了一些漸進式計劃。

We're just not sure exactly what it is.

我們只是不確定它到底是什麼。

So kind of curious on, one, what are you hearing in terms of the pace of activity recovery in Mexico?

所以我有點好奇，第一，你聽說了墨西哥經濟活動復甦的速度嗎？

And what is reflected in this first-half outlook that you've shared with the market?

您與市場分享的上半年展望反映了什麼？

Well, what happened to the activity in oil and gas in Mexico is something, let's say, unexpected to some extent and in my view, unsustainable.

好吧，墨西哥石油和天然氣活動發生的事情可以說在某種程度上是出乎意料的，而且在我看來是不可持續的。

Pemex reduced the investment and is reducing its production from -- a little more than 1.8 million barrels a day to the present 1.6 million barrels a day.

墨西哥國家石油公司減少了投資，並將石油產量從每天略多於 180 萬桶減少到目前的每天 160 萬桶。

And in the recent months, they are losing production at a rate of around 50,000 barrel a day per month.

最近幾個月，他們的石油產量以每月約 5 萬桶的速度減少。

They are reducing rigs from something like 65 rigs to around 23.

他們正在將鑽機數量從 65 台左右減少到 23 台左右。

Rigs are basically idle on the field for lack of inputs and lack of resources.

由於缺乏投入和資源，鑽孔機基本上在現場閒置。

This is an unsustainable situation in my view in the frame of the policy of the new administration.

我認為，在新政府的政策框架內，這種情況是不可持續的。

So I expect this could be, let's say, going on for a while, but could not be, let's say, the long-term perspective of Pemex.

因此我預計這種情況可能會持續一段時間，但不可能是 Pemex 的長期前景。

I would expect that in the second half of this year, the Mexican government will have to decide a policy and an approach to refinancing Pemex in a way that the country could, let's say, make -- develop the huge sources in the oil and gas sector.

我預計，今年下半年墨西哥政府將不得不決定一項政策和方法，為 Pemex 進行再融資，以便該國能夠開發石油和天然氣領域的龐大資源。

So today, what we see really is unprecedented reduction in productivity.

所以今天我們真正看到的是生產力前所未有的下降。

What we expect in the second half of 2025, in my view, is a new policy, and then it will take time to recover.

我認為，我們預計 2025 年下半年將推出一項新政策，然後需要時間來恢復。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

I mean, there will be a reset in the policy in Mexico, in my view, and there will be a recovery that could be at a pace that will be inevitably not too fast considering the financial constraint.

我的意思是，在我看來，墨西哥的政策將會重新調整，考慮到財政限制，經濟復甦的速度不可避免地不會太快。

Now this is an overall observation in the case of Mexico.

這是對墨西哥情況的總體觀察。

The negotiation around the future of the USMCA, the tariffs that are supposed to be implemented by the new American administration, all of this may have an impact on the economy in Mexico on the long-term development of it.

圍繞著USMCA未來的談判、新美國政府即將實施的關稅，都可能對墨西哥經濟的長期發展產生影響。

We will see.

我們會看到。

We don't have now the element to evaluate, let's say, which will be the impact of the overall -- in the overall relation between Mexico, United States and Canada, and which will be the future of the USMCA.

我們現在還無法評估這會對墨西哥、美國和加拿大之間的關係產生怎樣的影響，也無法評估 USMCA 的未來會如何。

This will be important also for the development of the energy sector.

這對於能源部門的發展也具有重要意義。

Derek Podhaizer, Piper Sandler.

德里克·波德海澤，派珀·桑德勒。

Just maybe if you could spend some time on the supply-demand picture in North America.

也許您可以花一些時間了解北美的供需情況。

Maybe you could just walk us through, give us an idea of how much pipe is on the ground today, maybe the health of the distributors out there and kind of what they're importing, any sort of impact on Section 232 when it comes to quota reductions, primarily out of South Korea, maybe other places where a new quota has been put on.

也許您可以向我們簡單介紹一下，讓我們了解一下目前地面上有多少管道，也許那裡的分銷商的健康狀況以及他們進口的管道情況，配額削減對第 232 條有任何影響嗎，主要是來自韓國，也許是其他實施了新配額的地方。

Just some help around that as we can kind of frame up the supportive nature of OCTG pricing when we think about the remainder of 2025.

當我們考慮 2025 年剩餘時間時，我們可以大致了解油井管定價的支援性質，這只是一些幫助。

So just more of the supply and demand dynamics that you're seeing.

因此，您所看到的只是更多的供需動態。

And with the demand side, we've seen the rig count recover kind of off the fourth-quarter seasonality.

從需求方面來看，我們看到鑽井數量已從第四季度的季節性影響中恢復。

And what are you expecting as we move forward in '25, just considering the outlook there?

那麼，考慮到那裡的前景，您對我們進入 25 年有何期待？

Just some help around the supply-demand would be great.

只要對供需有一些幫助就很好了。

Yes.

是的。

I would ask Luca Zanotti to comment on the supply-demand balance, the level of inventory, what we can expect in our view for the US market.

我想請 Luca Zanotti 對供需平衡、庫存水準以及我們對美國市場的預期進行評論。

So many questions here, but one by one.

這裡有這麼多問題，但我一個一個來。

Supply-demand.

供需。

What we see is that recently, the level of imports came down significantly.

我們看到，最近進口水準大幅下降。

In the fourth quarter, it was slightly more than 30%, which helps to ease the inventory that is sitting on the ground today, including our inventory is in the range of -- as we calculate, in the range of slightly less than six months.

在第四季度，這一比例略高於 30%，這有助於緩解目前的庫存壓力，包括我們的庫存範圍——據我們計算，在略低於六個月的範圍內。

So from the inventory standpoint, we believe that the situation is somewhat normalized.

因此，從庫存的角度來看，我們認為情況已經正常化。

We see less imports -- we have seen less import during the last quarters.

我們發現進口量減少了——最近幾季的進口量確實減少了。

There are structural measures that has been taken by the US domestic industry against some countries like Thailand, where the preliminary definition of the custom is that they were circumventing the OCTG antidumping.

美國國內產業針對泰國等一些國家採取了一些結構性措施，這些措施的初步定義是規避油井管反傾銷。

So we expect this not to come back again.

因此我們希望這種情況不會再發生。

This is well -- this is seamless.

這很好——這是無縫的。

And so overall, if you look at the import side, we have seen something that is a decreasing trend.

因此，總體而言，如果從進口方面來看，我們看到的是下降趨勢。

Now we may be that -- at the beginning of the 2025, we may see a rebound as they reset their budget.

現在我們可能會看到——在 2025 年初，隨著他們重新調整預算，我們可能會看到反彈。

But the situation in terms of supply-demand is much more balanced than what we saw last quarter and two quarters ago.

但供需狀況比上季和兩季前更平衡。

Now the second question was, if I'm not mistaken, so the second concerning the quotas, the way the Section 232, which is one of the tariffs that the administration is putting forward, there are many others that they are starting.

現在的第二個問題是，如果我沒有記錯的話，第二個問題涉及配額，第 232 條是政府正在提出的關稅之一，他們還在啟動許多其他關稅。

So as Paolo was saying before, we are in an uncharted territory here because we actually don't know.

正如 Paolo 之前所說的那樣，我們處於一個未知領域，因為我們實際上並不知道。

But the way the Section 232 quotas are structured is that the quotas are going to go away.

但第 232 條配額的結構方式決定了配額將會消失。

So everybody is going to be paying 25%.

所以每個人都要付 25%。

Now how this will evolve in the future, we don't know.

目前我們不知道未來這種情況會如何發展。

But as Paolo was mentioning before, we do know that the spirit of the Section 232 was to create a strong domestic supply chain.

但正如保羅之前提到的，我們確實知道第 232 條的精神是建立強大的國內供應鏈。

And so we are sure that the administration will be carefully monitoring the import evolution because they need to stick to increasing the domestic capacity utilization.

因此，我們確信政府將密切監控進口的變化，因為他們需要堅持提高國內產能利用率。

So we are confident that the overall effect is going to be positive for the domestic industry.

因此我們相信，總體而言，這將對國內產業產生正面影響。

Yes.

是的。

And then maybe just on the demand side, just seeing the US rig count recover here.

然後可能只是在需求方面，看到美國鑽井數量在這裡恢復。

I mean, just off the seasonality bottom, what's your expectation when you talk to your customers as kind of the outlook for the rest of the year just from where you see it today?

我的意思是，除了季節性因素之外，當您與客戶交談時，您對今年剩餘時間的前景有何預期？

If I may, here we need to split a little bit the situation because what we do see is a different behavior.

如果可以的話，這裡我們需要稍微區分一下情況，因為我們確實看到的是不同的行為。

If we take the major and the large independent, we still see that they are very, very disciplined and the ongoing consolidation process is typically leading to rationalization of operations, more efficiency.

如果我們以大型和主要的獨立公司為例，我們仍然會發現它們非常非常有紀律，而正在進行的整合過程通常會導致營運合理化和效率提高。

So we don't see this increasing a lot in these circumstances.

因此，在這種情況下，我們預計這一數字不會大幅增加。

Obviously, this may change going forward.

顯然，這種情況未來可能會改變。

But at this stage, we see a pretty constant level in this segment.

但現階段，我們看到該部分的水平相當穩定。

What we do see coming in are some smaller independent or private operators.

我們確實看到一些規模較小的獨立或私人業者加入。

And certainly, we have seen much more interest in terms of gas, gas linked to the new LNG that are being approved.

當然，我們看到人們對天然氣、與正在批准的新液化天然氣相關的天然氣的興趣大大增加。

So we see this happening.

因此我們看到了這種情況的發生。

So we see, let's say, constant activity on the major large independent, some smaller players getting in with new rigs, and we see interesting developments as far as gas is concerned.

因此，我們看到，主要的大型獨立公司不斷開展活動，一些較小的參與者也加入新的鑽井平台，就天然氣而言，我們看到了有趣的發展。

And I believe that this will consolidate even further going through 2025.

我相信到 2025 年，這種狀況將會進一步鞏固。

And then just a follow-up, maybe moving over to Saudi Arabia.

然後只是後續，也許會轉移到沙烏地阿拉伯。

Maybe just kind of walk through the puts and takes there with conventional versus the unconventional fields, oil versus gas, onshore versus onshore.

或許只是將常規油田與非常規油田、石油與天然氣、陸上與陸上比較。

I mean, where is Tenaris position?

我的意思是，Tenaris 的位置在哪裡？

Where are you seeing the pockets of strength?

您在哪裡看到了力量的集中點？

And also where are you seeing some of the activity softness that we kind of hear out there?

另外，您在哪裡看到我們聽到的一些活動疲軟現象？

Well, for this, I will ask Gabriel to give an overview of how we see the evolution of the business in Saudi Arabia.

好吧，為此，我將請加布里埃爾概述我們如何看待沙烏地阿拉伯業務的發展。

Yes.

是的。

On Saudi Arabia, I probably take the opportunity to talk about the whole Middle East, where we see drilling activity that is fairly stable at a very strong level.

關於沙烏地阿拉伯，我可能會藉此機會談談整個中東地區，我們看到那裡的鑽井活動相當穩定，而且水準非常強勁。

On the drilling that is associated with gas, we see areas that are very resilient, even growing.

在與天然氣相關的鑽探方面，我們看到一些地區非常有彈性，甚至不斷增長。

This is the case of unconventional gas in Saudi Arabia, targeting increase of gas for power generation in the Kingdom.

這就是沙烏地阿拉伯非常規天然氣的情況，目標是增加該國的天然氣發電量。

But this is not only the case for Saudi, we see expansion of LNG in Qatar and UAE and targets of self-sufficiency in other GCC countries.

但這不僅僅是沙烏地阿拉伯的情況，我們看到卡達和阿聯酋的液化天然氣擴張以及其他海灣合作委員會國家實現自給自足的目標。

So we expect also ADNOC to increase its gas plants.

因此，我們預計阿布達比國家石油公司也將擴大其天然氣工廠。

We expect Kuwait in deep drilling areas to drill and increase rigs related to gas.

我們預計科威特將在深層鑽井區進行鑽探並增加與天然氣相關的鑽機。

So gas is a very resilient and growing area in the Middle East.

因此，天然氣是中東地區一個極具彈性和成長潛力的領域。

Then when we go to the oil side of the business, the dynamic is a bit more uneven.

當我們轉向石油業務時，情況就變得更加不平衡了。

There is evident idle capacity of crude production in the Middle East, and different countries and companies are taking different decisions.

中東地區原油產能閒置現像明顯，不同國家企業做出不同決策。

We see on one side, UAE expanding capacity of crude in an area where Tenaris is very well positioned.

一方面，我們看到阿聯酋在 Tenaris 優勢地區的原油產能不斷擴大。

And we see, for example, Saudi Arabia softening some of the drilling associated to oil, especially in the offshore oil, stopping that quest for an increase in ulterior capacity of crude production.

例如，我們看到沙烏地阿拉伯放鬆了部分石油相關鑽探限制，特別是海上石油鑽探，停止了對進一步增加原油生產能力的追求。

So this is what we see in the Kingdom.

這就是我們在王國裡看到的。

It's also to mention something that Paolo noted on the opening remarks that Saudi Arabia is also going forward with projects related to energy transition.

另外值得一提的是，保羅在開幕詞中提到，沙烏地阿拉伯也在推動與能源轉型相關的計畫。

We mentioned the CCS project.

我們提到了 CCS 專案。

This is an initiative that Saudi Aramco is leading to capture, transport and store CO2, 9 million tons per year.

這是由沙特阿美公司主導的一項計劃，旨在每年捕獲、運輸和儲存 900 萬噸二氧化碳。

And this requires a pipeline of more than 300 kilometers.

而這需要300多公里的管線。

This is an important order of $250 million approximately that we will start delivering during the third quarter of 2025 and complete before the end of 2026.

這是一項重要的訂單，價值約為 2.5 億美元，我們將於 2025 年第三季開始交付，並在 2026 年底之前完成。

So we see overall the Middle East has been in 2024 a point of strength for Tenaris and will continue to be the case for 2025.

因此，我們總體上認為，中東地區在 2024 年將成為 Tenaris 的優勢所在，而這種優勢在 2025 年仍將保持。

And even though we had a slight decrease of our revenues in the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect a rebound as early as first quarter of 2025.

儘管我們的營收在 2024 年第四季略有下降，但我們預計最早在 2025 年第一季就會反彈。

Kevin Roger, Kepler Cheuvreux.

凱文·羅傑（Kevin Roger），Kepler Cheuvreux。

I would like, if I may, please going back on the US tariff and the potential impact.

如果可以的話，我想回顧一下美國關稅及其潛在影響。

The first one would be on your production cost.

第一個是關於你的生產成本。

Can you give us some color currently on what percentage of the billets that you currently use locally are outsourced from Europe or somewhere else, just to understand exactly what percentage of raw material costs could be impacted by any 25% tariff?

您能否告訴我們目前您當地使用的鋼坯中有多少比例是從歐洲或其他地方外包的，以便準確了解 25% 的關稅會對原材料成本產生怎樣的影響？

And the second one, just to be sure that I well understood what you just said.

第二，只是為了確保我清楚地了解你剛才所說的話。

If we have the 25% tariff and that in the meantime, all the quota are removed from the 232, don't you feel that the Korean guys that are currently under quota with 400,000 tons, something like that, will potentially be able to massively increase their imports because I guess that with just a 25% tariff, they will remain very, very competitive?

如果我們徵收 25% 的關稅，同時取消 232 國的所有配額，您不覺得目前受到 40 萬噸配額限制的韓國企業將有可能大幅增加進口量嗎？

That will be the two points on the tariff, please.

這就是關於關稅的兩點。

And the last one, outside those topics, if you can give us some colors on currently Pemex.

最後一個問題，除了這些話題之外，您能否為我們介紹一下目前 Pemex 的情況？

What are the level of receivables that you have currently with Pemex, please?

請問您目前對 Pemex 的應收帳款水準是多少？

Well, in the first point, let's say, the -- we have a steel shop full operation, that is the Koppel steel shop in which we have been investing and are preparing for eventually expansion of our operation that is feasible.

嗯，首先，我們有一個全面運營的鋼鐵廠，也就是 Koppel 鋼鐵廠，我們一直在對其進行投資，並為最終可行的業務擴張做準備。

It's a question of expanding the bag house and the exhaust fumes system just to achieve increased production.

這是一個擴大袋式除塵器和廢氣處理系統以實現產量增加的問題。

So we have the possibility of increasing our, let's say, local production of steel.

因此，我們有可能增加當地的鋼鐵產量。

And then we are importing or complementing steel from different sources.

然後我們從不同來源進口或補充鋼材。

We are also buying locally from different suppliers in the states to complement the steel that we can supply from Mexico, from Argentina, from Italy or from Romania.

我們也從美國當地的不同供應商採購，以補充我們從墨西哥、阿根廷、義大利或羅馬尼亞供應的鋼材。

So we have very many different sources for supplying the -- what is missing of this.

所以我們有很多不同的來源來供應——缺少的是什麼。

All the steel shops, and you can imagine the size, will be devoted to the US operation, plus local supply and plus many different sources, some of which we don't know if we will be affected by tariffs or not because in the end, there will be a negotiation starting.

所有的鋼鐵車間，你可以想像它們的規模，都將用於美國業務，加上當地供應和許多不同的來源，其中一些我們不知道是否會受到關稅的影響，因為最終將會開始談判。

But we do not know how this negotiation will end up with Europe or with Mexico or with Argentina, especially.

但我們不知道這場談判最終會如何進行，尤其是與歐洲、墨西哥或阿根廷。

So this is where we are in terms of steel supply.

這就是我們的鋼鐵供給現況。

We feel comfortable that in the end, whatever scenario, we will come out with a fully integrated line pretty efficient compared to any other competitor.

我們確信，無論最終情況如何，我們都會推出一條比任何其他競爭對手更有效率的完全整合生產線。

As far as Korea is concerned, I have no doubt that the American administration will be very careful in not allowing anybody to even paying quota flooding the market and reducing utilization of the domestic producer.

就韓國而言，我毫不懷疑美國政府會非常小心，甚至不允許任何人支付配額，充斥市場並減少國內生產商的利用率。

I mean this is what they said.

我的意思是他們就是這麼說的。

This is what they did, and this is what they are going to do to contain this one way or the other by agreement or by other things.

這就是他們所做的，也是他們將要做的事情，透過協議或其他方式來遏制這種現象。

So I'm not really concerned that this would be a credible scenario for the future, considering where we are today.

因此，考慮到我們目前的狀況，我並不擔心這是否會成為未來的可信情景。

And this is not only valid for Korea, it's valid also for other players that may see more room for increase.

這不僅適用於韓國，也適用於其他可能有更大成長空間的玩家。

But I frankly don't think that there will be open season for them.

但坦白說，我並不認為他們會有自由的季節。

Now as far as Pemex, we are reducing our exposure.

現在就 Pemex 而言，我們正在減少投資。

I think that you will see this in the working capital cash flow.

我認為您會在營運資金現金流中看到這一點。

We are generating important cash flow there.

我們在那裡產生重要的現金流。

We are doing agreement that allow us to reduce this in the range of, let's say, close to this quarter around $140 million.

我們正在達成協議，允許我們將這一數字減少到本季的 1.4 億美元左右。

And this -- our program will allow us to continue, but at a different pace.

而且，我們的計劃將使我們能夠繼續下去，但是速度會有所不同。

Daniel Thomson, BNP Paribas Exane.

法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Daniel Thomson。

Just one question, please.

請問我只有一個問題。

I'm just trying to think about the impact of the price rises in Pipe Logix outside of the US.

我只是想知道 Pipe Logix 價格上漲對美國以外地區的影響。

I was wondering if you could remind us sort of what proportion of your ex-US contracts have an element of Pipe Logix in them?

我想知道您是否可以提醒我們一下，您在美國以外的合約中有多少比例包含 Pipe Logix 元素？

And what's the sort of time frame for feed-through there?

那麼，那裡的饋通時間框架是怎麼樣的呢？

And if we did have US pricing increasing, considering the various lags, when could we expect that to feed through to those contracts and then feed through to your P&L beyond that?

如果美國價格確實上漲，考慮到各種滯後，我們什麼時候可以預期這會反應到這些合約中，然後再反應到您的損益表中？

Well, the Pipe Logix is important in the formulas for the long-term agreements in the States, obviously then in Mexico, in Canada, in the rest of South America, including Argentina, Colombia and in some specific contracts.

嗯，Pipe Logix 在美國長期協議的製定中起著重要作用，顯然在墨西哥、加拿大、包括阿根廷、哥倫比亞在內的南美洲其他地區以及一些特定合約中也起著重要作用。

But basically, I mean, you say in the Americas, but not so much used outside the Americas, where the formulas are more related to the cost structure of our pipes.

但基本上，我的意思是，你說在美洲，但在美洲以外的地方卻不那麼常用，那裡的公式更多地與我們管道的成本結構有關。

This is where they are.

這就是他們所在的地方。

The Pipe Logix increased 9% from August to today in January, and we expect this to continue to increase even before the application of tariffs.

從 8 月到 1 月份，Pipe Logix 價格上漲了 9%，我們預計，在徵收關稅之前，這一價格還會繼續上漲。

And it will get into our contract with a delay between one quarter and two quarters.

而且它將延遲一至兩個季度納入我們的合約中。

Gradually, this will get into it, and we will see it.

漸漸地，我們會逐漸了解這一點，並且會看到它。

So then in the moment in which tariffs will be introduced, expectations will step in, and we don't know what may happen in the month of March or April.

因此，在徵收關稅的那一刻，預期就會介入，我們不知道三月或四月會發生什麼事。

But this is where we -- what we can estimate and consider today.

但這就是我們今天能夠估計和考慮的。

Mick Pickup, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的米克‧皮卡普。

Sorry to ask again about the US.

抱歉再次詢問有關美國的問題。

But can I just disaggregate the US market into seamless and welded?

但我可以將美國市場分為無縫市場和焊接市場嗎？

If my math is correct, you're importing some seamless tubes into the US from outside the US and obviously that's part of this uncertain territories.

如果我的計算正確的話，你正在從美國以外的地方進口一些無縫管到美國，顯然這是不確定領域的一部分。

Can you just talk about your ability to ramp up some welded production should the need arise?

能否談談在需要時提高焊接產量的能力？

Well, we have capacity on the ground for doing it.

嗯，我們有能力完成這項任務。

But also price will be moving and also the price of hot-rolled coils will be.

但價格也會變動，熱軋捲的價格也會變動。

But I will ask to Luca to expand on this relation welded-seamless and the situation for the import of the pipe that are complementing our sales to the States.

但我會請 Luca 詳細說明這種無縫焊接管道的關係，以及補充我們對美國銷售的管道進口。

Yes.

是的。

Just to summarize, Nick, today our sales in the United States is for the great majority, seamless.

總而言之，尼克，今天我們在美國的銷售對絕大多數人來說都是無縫的。

You know that our strategy for rig direct® is to provide the whole well.

您知道，我們的 rig direct® 策略是提供整套服務。

And so you can think of what is the portion of welded that goes into the surface and intermediate, and think that this is more or less our proportion in our sales between seamless and welded.

因此，您可以想想焊接在表面和中間部分的比例，並認為這或多或少是我們銷售中無縫和焊接之間的比例。

Now, as far as your second question, which is capacity in welded, obviously we are super well positioned in terms of capacity because we could easily ramp up even further our capacity in our Hickman plants.

現在，就您的第二個問題，即焊接產能，顯然我們在產能方面處於非常有利的位置，因為我們可以輕鬆地進一步提高我們希克曼工廠的產能。

And we have -- because we do believe that we're going to see some line pipe also coming through, we have a nice plant in Wilder, Kentucky, that can step in if needed.

而且我們確實相信我們將會看到一些管線管道通過，我們在肯塔基州懷爾德有一個很好的工廠，如果需要的話可以介入。

As Paolo was saying, this will depend on the relative positioning of the market prices and the cost of HRC, which are the two main inputs for the welded production.

正如 Paolo 所說，這將取決於市場價格和熱軋捲成本的相對定位，而熱軋捲是焊接生產的兩個主要投入。

But in terms of capacity, we're probably the best placed in the United States -- but not probably, we are in the best placed in the United States.

但就能力而言，我們可能是美國地位最好的——但不是可能，我們是美國地位最好的。

In the case of welded, we depend entirely from domestic industry for the supply of hot-rolled coils.

就焊接而言，我們完全依賴國內工業來供應熱軋捲。

So we are really depending on the equilibrium between price, Pipe Logix and the local hot-rolled coils.

因此，我們實際上依賴價格、Pipe Logix 和當地熱軋捲之間的平衡。

I am -- I think that in the US, maybe not immediately, but over time, the policy of the new government and the Trump administration will be to speed up all the permits process and we may see additional line pipe and additional connection and evacuation.

我認為，在美國，也許不會立即發生，但隨著時間的推移，新政府和川普政府的政策將是加快所有許可流程，我們可能會看到更多的管道、更多的連接和疏散。

And also to some extent, this may, let's say, open the way for some development that maybe we do not see exactly now, but we may see in six months' time.

而且從某種程度上來說，這可能為某些發展開闢道路，也許我們現在還看不到，但六個月後我們可能會看到。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, I'm showing no further questions.

（操作員指示）目前，我沒有其他問題。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

現在，我想請喬瓦尼·薩達尼亞致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Gigi, and thank you all for joining us, and hope to see you soon.

謝謝你，Gigi，也謝謝大家的加入我們，希望很快能見到你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bye.

再見。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。