旅行家集團 (TRV) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the second-quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on July 17, 2026. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加Travelers第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音，錄音日期為2026年7月17日。現在，我想把會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁Abbe Goldstein女士。Goldstein女士，請開始。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers discussion of our second-quarter 2026 results. We released our press release, financial supplement, and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the investors section.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加Travelers就我們2026年第二季業績的說明會。我們已於今天稍早發布新聞稿、財務補充資料以及網路直播簡報。上述所有資料皆可在我們網站travelers.com的投資人專區找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment Presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance; Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

今天的發言人包括董事長兼執行長Alan Schnitzer；財務長Dan Frey；以及三個事業部門總裁：商業保險的Greg Toczydlowski、保證與專業保險的Jeff Klenk，以及個人保險的Michael Klein。他們將討論本公司業務的財務結果與目前的市場環境。他們在宣讀準備好的講稿時會參照網路直播簡報，之後我們將開放提問。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

在我把電話交給Alan之前，我想請各位注意網路直播簡報末尾所附的說明註記。我們今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資人，任何前瞻性陳述均涉及風險與不確定性，且不保證未來績效。由於多項因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的內容存在重大差異。這些因素已在我們的盈餘新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的最新10-Q與10-K中「前瞻性陳述」章節加以說明。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement, and other materials available in the investors section on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

此外，在我們的發言或回答問題時，可能會提及部分非GAAP財務衡量指標。相關調節表已包含於我們近期的盈餘新聞稿、財務補充資料，以及網站投資人專區提供的其他資料中。現在我想把電話交給Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're pleased to report an excellent second quarter and another in a sustained run of successful quarters. With very strong underwriting performance across all three segments and a terrific result from our investment portfolio, our results continue to reflect steady progress on the innovation front, as many of the initiatives we've shared bear fruit. Everything from product enhancements to the impact of AI on straight-through claims processing. There's more of that to come as we continue to invest with discipline and focus on the initiatives that matter most.

謝謝你，Abbe。各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。我們很高興報告第二季表現非常出色，並且延續了一段持續成功的季度表現。在三個事業部門皆展現非常強勁的承保績效，加上投資組合的優異成果，我們的業績持續反映在創新方面的穩健進展；我們先前分享的多項計畫已開始開花結果。從產品強化到AI對端到端（straight-through）理賠處理的影響，皆是如此。隨著我們持續以紀律投入資源，並聚焦於最重要的計畫，未來還會有更多成果。

For the quarter, we earned core income of $2.2 billion or $10.04 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 24.9%. Over the trailing four quarters, we generated a core return on equity of 24.2%. Underwriting income of $1.7 billion pretax was driven by very strong levels of underlying underwriting income and favorable prior year development.

本季我們的核心收益為22億美元，或每股稀釋後10.04美元，核心股東權益報酬率（ROE）為24.9%。過去四個季度合計，我們的核心股東權益報酬率為24.2%。稅前承保收益為17億美元，主要由非常強勁的基礎承保收益水準以及有利的前期年度準備金發展所帶動。

Reported and underlying profitability in the quarter were excellent in all three segments. The combined ratio improved to 83.6%, and the underlying combined ratio improved to 84.1%, driven by a lower underlying loss ratio.

本季三個事業部門的報告與基礎獲利能力皆非常出色。綜合比率改善至83.6%，基礎綜合比率改善至84.1%，主要受惠於較低的基礎損失率。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality investment portfolio continue to perform well. After-tax net investment income increased by 14% to $883 million, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio, and a strong result from the non-fixed income portfolio. Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet enabled us to return more than $1.5 billion of excess capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $1.3 billion of share repurchases. Even after that return of capital from having made important investments in the business, adjusted book value per share was 16% higher than a year ago.

接著談投資。我們高品質的投資組合持續表現良好。稅後淨投資收益增加14%至8.83億美元，主要來自我們持續成長的固定收益投資組合所帶來強勁且可靠的報酬，以及非固定收益投資組合的亮眼表現。我們的承保與投資成果，加上穩健的資產負債表，使我們在本季向股東返還超過15億美元的超額資本，其中包括13億美元的庫藏股回購。即使在返還資本並對業務進行重要投資之後，每股調整後帳面價值仍較一年前高出16%。

Turning to the top line. We generated net written premiums of $11.5 billion in the quarter. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums to $6 billion, 5% higher than the prior year quarter, adjusting for the sale of our Canadian business. We grew in every line other than property, but we continue to be very disciplined about writing national property.

接著看保費收入。本季我們的淨簽單保費為115億美元。在商業保險方面，若調整出售加拿大業務的影響，淨簽單保費成長至60億美元，較去年同期增加5%。除財產險外，我們在各險種皆有成長，但對承作全國性財產險我們仍維持高度紀律。

Property premiums were higher in both our small commercial and our middle market businesses. Renewal premium change in the segment was 4.8% with stable renewal premium change of 6.1% in our core middle-market business and sequentially higher renewal premium change of 9.4% in our small commercial select business.

在小型商業與中型市場業務中，財產險保費皆有所增加。該事業部門的續保保費變動（RPC）為4.8%；其中核心中型市場業務的續保保費變動穩定在6.1%，而小型商業精選（select）業務的續保保費變動則較前一季提高至9.4%。

By product, RPC was higher or stable in every line other than property. Excluding the property line, RPC was 7.8% and about flat sequentially. Retention remains very strong at 86%, reflecting deliberate execution on our part and a generally high level of stability in the market. New business was a record $805 million, up 8% over the prior year quarter.

按產品別來看，除財產險外，各險種的續保保費變動（RPC）皆上升或持平。排除財產險後，RPC為7.8%，較前一季約略持平。續保率仍維持在86%的強勁水準，反映我們有意識的執行力，以及市場整體高度穩定。新業務創下8.05億美元的紀錄，較去年同期增加8%。

As I've shared before, pricing, retention, and returns need to be evaluated together. The optimization of that combination, together with new business creates shareholder value. Looking at them in concert, these results reflect the exceptional execution of a sound strategy by our experienced field organization.

如我先前分享，定價、續保率與報酬必須一併評估。將這三者的組合加以最佳化，再加上新業務，才能創造股東價值。綜合來看，這些結果反映我們經驗豐富的前線團隊以卓越執行力落實一項健全策略。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 14% to a record $1.2 billion. In our high-quality management liability business, renewal premium change remained steady, while retention improved to an excellent 88%. New business was up 8% over the prior year quarter. In our leading surety business, we grew net written premiums by 40%, reflecting our success with large accounts and continued strong production across the portfolio.

在保證與專業保險方面，我們的淨簽單保費成長14%至創紀錄的12億美元。在我們高品質的管理責任險業務中，續保保費變動維持穩定，同時續保率提升至優異的88%。新業務較去年同期增加8%。在我們領先的保證（surety）業務中，淨簽單保費成長40%，反映我們在大型帳戶上的成功，以及整體組合持續強勁的產能與業務開發。

In Personal Insurance, we grew net written premiums, we generated net written premiums of $4.3 billion with solid retention in both auto and homeowners and higher new business in homeowners. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff, and Michael about our segment results.

在個人保險方面，我們的淨簽單保費成長；本季淨簽單保費為43億美元，汽車險與住宅險的續保表現穩健，且住宅險新業務增加。稍後你們將從Greg、Jeff與Michael那裡聽到更多關於各事業部門業績的說明。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to take a minute to step back from the quarter and talk about what's behind the sustained period of strong results we've delivered. In short, to the earnings engine we've built. There are four components that comprise core income: underlying underwriting income, investment income, catastrophe losses, and prior year development, all four have contributed to our success.

在我把電話交給Dan之前，我想花一點時間跳脫本季，談談我們能夠持續交出強勁成果背後的原因。簡而言之，就是我們打造的獲利引擎。核心收益由四個要素構成：基礎承保收益、投資收益、巨災損失，以及前期年度準備金發展；這四項都對我們的成功有所貢獻。

We've shared before the significant increase in underlying underwriting income over the past decade. You can see that on slide 19 of the webcast presentation. That success is in large measure, the result of investments we've made through our focused innovation strategy to strengthen and extend our broad portfolio of competitive advantages.

我們先前已分享，過去十年基礎承保收益大幅提升。你們可以在網路直播簡報第19頁看到。這項成功在很大程度上，來自我們透過聚焦的創新策略所進行的投資，以強化並延伸我們廣泛的競爭優勢組合。

Leveraging those advantages, we've driven underlying underwriting income higher by growing the top line while at the same time improving underlying margins. You can see the strength of the result and the contribution of underlying underwriting income to return on equity. Looking ahead, we expect to continue generating strong premium levels at attractive underlying margins. With the next chapter of our investment work, Innovation 2.0, and our growing scale has added tailwinds. That's why you've heard us describe our strong level of underlying underwriting income as durable.

運用這些優勢，我們一方面透過擴大保費規模推升基礎承保收益，同時也改善基礎利潤率。你們可以看到成果的強度，以及基礎承保收益對股東權益報酬率的貢獻。展望未來，我們預期將持續在具吸引力的基礎利潤率下，創造強勁的保費水準。隨著我們下一階段的投資工作「Innovation 2.0」推進，以及規模持續擴大所帶來的順風助力。這也是為什麼你們聽到我們將強勁的基礎承保收益形容為具持久性（durable）。

Net investment income is also a growing and reliable contributor to our bottom line. Strong underwriting cash flows and predictable returns from our fixed income portfolio, complemented by positive returns from our alternative investments have contributed to an investment portfolio that is now more than $100 billion.

淨投資收益也是我們盈餘持續成長且可靠的貢獻來源。強勁的核保現金流與固定收益投資組合可預期的報酬，再加上替代性投資的正報酬，共同促成我們的投資組合如今已超過1,000億美元。

Net investment income has been a consistently strong contributor to ROE and new money rates in the fixed income portfolio continue to outpace the embedded yield. As a reminder, about 95% of our investment portfolio is invested in fixed income, of which 99% is investment grade. Together, our underlying underwriting income and net investment income have grown into a formidable earnings base, substantial enough to absorb significant catastrophe losses and still produce leading returns.

淨投資收益一向是股東權益報酬率（ROE）的強勁貢獻者，而固定收益投資組合中新投入資金的利率持續高於組合內含殖利率。提醒一下，我們的投資組合約有95%投資於固定收益，其中99%為投資等級。我們的核心核保收益與淨投資收益合計，已成長為一個強大的獲利基礎，足以吸收重大的巨災損失，仍能創造領先的報酬。

In each of the last two years, we've produced among our highest levels of returns in spite of record levels of catastrophe losses. And our resilience to catastrophes is about more than the size of that earnings base. As we've said before, our share of the industry's property catastrophe losses over the past decade has been meaningfully lower than our corresponding market share, a direct result of our disciplined risk selection, pricing, and exposure management, all powered by leading data and analytics. Those are the same capabilities that position us to handle the prospect of continued weather volatility.

在過去兩年中的每一年，儘管巨災損失創下紀錄，我們仍繳出接近歷史高檔的報酬水準。而我們對巨災的韌性不僅僅取決於這個獲利基礎的規模。如同我們先前所說，過去十年我們在產業財產巨災損失中的占比，明顯低於我們相對應的市占率；這是我們嚴謹的風險選擇、定價與曝險管理的直接成果，而這一切都由領先的數據與分析能力所驅動。同樣的能力也讓我們得以因應天氣波動可能持續的情況。

That brings me to the balance sheet and prior year reserve development. We don't plan for PYD. When we set our reserves, we're deliberate about taking uncertainties into account. So we're never counting on favorable development to materialize. Yet it has. We've recognized net favorable prior year reserve development in 19 of the last 20 years, totaling $15 billion pretax, which speaks to the discipline in our process. We're confident that our balance sheet is as strong today as ever.

接下來談資產負債表與前期年度準備金發展（PYD）。我們不會把PYD納入規劃。在提列準備金時，我們會審慎地將不確定性納入考量。因此，我們從不指望有利發展會出現。但它確實發生了。在過去20年中有19年，我們確認了淨額有利的前期年度準備金發展，稅前合計150億美元，這反映了我們流程的紀律性。我們有信心，我們今天的資產負債表一如既往地強健。

The earnings and cash flow this engine generates go well beyond what we can effectively put to work to run and grow the business. And that gives us valuable choices on how to deploy the excess capital. Our first priority is always to reinvest organically or inorganically, but we can earn attractive returns. When we generate capital beyond those opportunities, we don't think of it as ours to keep. As responsible stewards, we return it to our shareholders.

這個引擎所產生的獲利與現金流，遠超過我們為了經營與成長業務所能有效投入運用的程度。這也讓我們在如何配置超額資本方面擁有寶貴的選擇。我們的第一優先永遠是以有機或無機方式再投資，只要能賺取具吸引力的報酬。當我們產生的資本超出這些機會時，我們不認為那是我們應該保留的。作為負責任的受託管理者，我們將其回饋給股東。

We've done that consistently and with discipline. We've raised our dividend every year for more than two decades at a compound annual rate of 8%, and we've returned meaningful capital through share repurchases. Since we started our share repurchase program, we've retired 70% of the shares then outstanding. And as a result, spread our growing earnings, dividends, and book value across fewer shares, increasing each shareholder's stake in the earnings power we've built.

我們一向以一致且有紀律的方式做到這一點。我們已連續二十多年每年調升股利，年複合成長率為8%，並透過庫藏股回購回饋了可觀的資本。自我們啟動庫藏股回購計畫以來，我們已註銷當時流通在外股數的70%。因此，我們將成長中的獲利、股利與帳面價值分配到更少的股數上，提高每位股東在我們所建立的獲利能力中的持股權益。

Just by virtue of our share repurchase program, a shareholder's percentage ownership of Travelers has increased 9% since the beginning of 2025. The percentage ownership of a shareholder who owned Travelers stock when we began our share repurchase program in 2006 has more than tripled.

僅憑我們的庫藏股回購計畫，自2025年初以來，股東在Travelers的持股比例已提高9%。而在2006年我們開始庫藏股回購計畫時就持有Travelers股票的股東，其持股比例已超過三倍。

As an aside, by returning excess capital to our investors, we give them the ability to allocate their investment dollars as they see fit, including by investing in companies with different growth profiles or capital needs, thereby contributing to the efficiency of the capital markets. The efficient allocation of capital contributes to a stronger economy.

順帶一提，透過將超額資本回饋給投資人，我們讓他們能依自身意願配置投資資金，包括投資於具有不同成長特性或資本需求的公司，從而提升資本市場的效率。資本的有效配置有助於打造更強健的經濟。

To wrap it up, that's the earnings engine, tuned to continue delivering industry-leading returns at industry low volatility. And this engine funds is an improvement. The earnings and cash flow we're generating or would allow us to invest well more than $1.5 billion a year, including in focused technology initiatives such as AI, to strengthen the very advantages behind these results. It's a virtuous cycle and on this scale only makes more powerful.

總結來說，這就是我們的獲利引擎，經過調校後，將在產業低波動的情況下持續提供產業領先的報酬。而這個引擎所提供的資金是一項改善。我們正在產生的獲利與現金流，將使我們每年得以投資遠超過15億美元，包括在AI等聚焦的科技計畫上，以強化支撐這些成果的核心優勢。這是一個良性循環，而且在這樣的規模下只會變得更強大。

Ultimately, all of this is what allows us to deliver on the promise we make to our customers, serve our 30,000 colleagues in the communities that count on us, and support the distribution partners who represent us. Operating from this position of considerable strength, we remain highly confident in the outlook for travelers. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

歸根結底，這一切讓我們得以兌現對客戶的承諾，服務我們在各個仰賴我們的社區中的3萬名同仁，並支持代表我們的通路合作夥伴。在如此強健的基礎上營運，我們對Travelers的前景仍然高度有信心。接下來，我很高興把電話會議交給Dan。

Thank you, Alan. Travelers delivered $2.2 billion of core income in the second quarter resulting in quarterly core ROE of 24.9% and a trailing 12-month core return on equity of 24.2%. Second-quarter earnings were driven by another very strong quarter of underlying underwriting income, which at $1.3 billion after tax, marked our eighth consecutive quarter of more than $1 billion.

謝謝你，Alan。Travelers在第二季實現22億美元的核心收益，使季度核心ROE達24.9%，過去12個月的核心股東權益報酬率為24.2%。第二季獲利主要來自又一個非常強勁的核心核保收益季度；稅後為13億美元，這是我們連續第八個季度稅後超過10億美元。

Net investment income of $883 million after tax and net favorable prior year reserve development of $456 million after tax also contributed to the strong bottom-line results. After-tax cat losses were a little more than $400 million. The all-in combined ratio of 83.6% was again excellent.

稅後淨投資收益8.83億美元，以及稅後淨額有利的前期年度準備金發展4.56億美元，也共同推升了強勁的最終盈餘表現。稅後巨災損失略高於4億美元。整體綜合率83.6%再次表現優異。

Underlying underwriting income reflects $10.8 billion of earned premium and an underlying combined ratio of 84.1%. Within the underlying combined ratio, the second-quarter expense ratio of 29% was slightly higher than in the prior year quarter. As underwriting profitability has been stronger than expected, certain variable expenses have also been higher than expected. For example, profit sharing and contingent commissions, and that's a trade-off we're happy to make.

核心核保收益反映已賺保費108億美元，以及核心綜合率84.1%。在核心綜合率中，第二季費用率為29%，較去年同期略高。由於核保獲利能力強於預期，部分變動性費用也高於預期。例如利潤分成與或有佣金，而這樣的取捨我們樂於接受。

Even with those higher profit-driven variable costs, we continue to expect the full-year expense ratio to be in line with our prior guidance of around 28.5%. We reported net favorable prior year reserve development in all three segments in the second quarter, totaling $578 million pretax.

即使有這些由獲利帶動的較高變動成本，我們仍預期全年費用率將符合先前指引，約為28.5%。我們在第二季三個事業部門皆報告淨額有利的前期年度準備金發展，稅前合計5.78億美元。

In Business Insurance, net favorable development of $319 million was driven by workers' comp and commercial property. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $75 million was driven by better-than-expected results and management liability coverages and fidelity and surety. Personal Insurance recorded net favorable PYD of $184 million, with favorability in both home and auto.

在商業保險（Business Insurance）方面，淨額有利發展3.19億美元，主要由勞工補償險與商業財產險所帶動。在保證與專業保險（Bond & Specialty）方面，淨額有利PYD為7,500萬美元，主要來自管理責任保險與忠誠保險及保證保險的表現優於預期。個人保險（Personal Insurance）錄得淨額有利PYD 1.84億美元，住宅與汽車兩者皆呈現有利。

After-tax net investment income increased 14% from the prior year quarter to $883 million. Fixed income NII was higher than in the prior year quarter and in line with our expectations, benefiting from both higher yields and a higher level of invested assets. New money yields at the end of Q2 were about 90 basis points higher than the yield embedded in the portfolio.

稅後淨投資收益較去年同期增加14%至8.83億美元。固定收益的淨投資收益高於去年同期，且符合我們的預期，受惠於較高的殖利率與較高的投資資產水位。截至第二季末，新投入資金的殖利率約比投資組合內含殖利率高出90個基點。

Our outlook for fixed income NII by quarter, including earnings from short-term securities is consistent with the guidance we previously provided, expecting approximately $840 million in the third quarter and roughly $870 million in the fourth quarter. And fixed income NII is expected to continue to grow beyond 2026 as the portfolio becomes larger and new money rates continue to be higher than the yield embedded in the portfolio. Net investment income from our alternative investment portfolio was also higher than in the prior year quarter.

我們對固定收益淨投資收益按季度的展望（包含短期證券的收益）與先前提供的指引一致，預期第三季約為8.40億美元、第四季約為8.70億美元。隨著投資組合規模擴大，且新投入資金利率持續高於投資組合內含殖利率，固定收益淨投資收益預期在2026年之後仍將持續成長。我們的替代性投資組合所帶來的淨投資收益也高於去年同期。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $1.9 billion were again very strong. And over the trailing 12 months, operating cash flows surpassed $11 billion. As interest rates decreased during the quarter, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $2.4 billion after tax at March 31 to $2 billion after tax at June 30.

接著談資本管理。本季營運現金流達19億美元，再次表現非常強勁。在過去12個月，營運現金流超過110億美元。由於本季利率下降，我們的淨未實現投資損失由3月31日稅後24億美元降至6月30日稅後20億美元。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes unrealized investment gains and losses, was $168.20 at quarter end, up 16% from a year ago. Adjusted book value per share also increased 6% from year end despite the very strong level of share repurchases in Q1 and Q2, a 14% increase in the quarterly dividend per share and our continued investments in technology and other strategic initiatives.

每股調整後帳面價值（不含未實現投資損益）於季末為168.20美元，較一年前上升16%。儘管我們在第一季與第二季進行了非常高水準的庫藏股回購、每股季度股利提高14%，並持續投資於科技及其他策略性計畫，每股調整後帳面價值自年末以來仍增加6%。

We returned more than $1.5 billion of capital to shareholders in Q2 with dividends of $266 million and share repurchases of $1.3 billion, leaving us with roughly $3.9 billion remaining under prior Board authorizations for share repurchases.

第二季我們透過股利2.66億美元及股票回購13億美元，向股東返還超過15億美元資本，使我們在先前董事會核准的股票回購額度下，尚餘約39億美元可用。

Turning to reinsurance. Page 18 of the webcast presentation includes some highlights. First, we replaced our expiring cat bond in May with a new cat bond, increasing the bond size from $575 million to $750 million and decreasing the retention slightly.

接著談再保險。網路直播簡報第18頁列出一些重點。首先，我們在5月以新的巨災債券取代到期的巨災債券，將債券規模由5.75億美元提高至7.5億美元，並略微降低自留額。

Second, on July 1, we renewed our Northeast property cat XoL treaty, which continues to provide $1 billion of occurrence coverage above the attachment point of $2.75 billion. It's also worth noting that we chose not to renew the Personal Lines cat XoL treaty we had purchased in 2024 and 2025. Recall that when we renewed our general corporate cat treaty at January 1 this year, we decreased the attachment point from $4 billion to $3 billion. And the efficiency of that all perils enterprise-wide program was a more attractive way of getting the reinsurance coverage we wanted.

第二，7月1日我們續保東北部財產巨災超額損失（cat XoL）合約，該合約在27.5億美元起賠點之上，持續提供10億美元的單一事故保障額度。另外值得一提的是，我們選擇不續保先前於2024年與2025年購買的個人險巨災超額損失（cat XoL）合約。回顧今年1月1日續保一般公司巨災合約時，我們將起賠點由40億美元下調至30億美元。而該全險種、企業範圍的方案在效率上更具吸引力，是我們取得所需再保保障的更佳方式。

In summary, our second-quarter results once again demonstrated significant and durable underwriting earnings power, steadily increasing net investment income from our growing investment portfolio and attractive returns across our well-diversified book of business. And now for a discussion of results in Business Insurance, I'll turn the call over to Greg.

總結而言，我們第二季的結果再次展現顯著且具持續性的核保獲利能力；隨著投資組合成長，淨投資收益穩步提升；且在多元分散的業務組合中取得具吸引力的報酬。接下來將由Greg為各位說明商業保險（Business Insurance）的業績。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had a terrific second quarter in terms of both top- and bottom-line results. Segment income of $1.2 billion was a second-quarter record reflecting strong underlying underwriting income and favorable prior year reserve development. We delivered an underlying combined ratio of 88.2%, a second-quarter record.

謝謝你，Dan。商業保險第二季在營收與獲利兩方面都表現非常出色。分部收益為12億美元，創第二季新高，反映強勁的核心核保收益以及有利的前期年度準備金發展。我們的核心綜合率為88.2%，同樣創第二季新高。

The improvement in the underlying loss ratio reflects favorable loss experience, including favorable experience consistent with the kind of investments we make in areas like predictive models, risk selection, products, technology, claim, and risk control. This gives us confidence that we're investing effectively.

核心損失率的改善反映有利的損失經驗，其中包括與我們在預測模型、風險篩選、產品、科技、理賠與風險控管等領域投資相一致的正向表現。這讓我們對投資成效更具信心。

Turning to the top line. Our net written premiums reached a new quarterly record of $6 billion. Excluding the impact of the sale of our Canadian business in the first quarter, we grew segment net written premiums by 5%, led by 7% growth in our middle-market business and 4% growth in our Select business. National property premium declined as we maintain our deliberate and disciplined underwriting standards, passing on business where pricing terms don't align with our view of the risk.

接著看營收端。我們的淨簽單保費達到60億美元，創單季新高。若排除第一季出售加拿大業務的影響，我們的分部淨簽單保費成長5%，其中以中型市場業務成長7%及Select業務成長4%為主。全國性財產險保費下滑，因我們維持審慎且紀律嚴明的核保標準，對於定價條件與我們對風險的看法不一致的業務選擇不承作。

Turning to production across the segment. Renewal premium change was 4.8%. Excluding the property line, RPC was 7.8% and about flat sequentially. Retention remained very strong at 86%, reflecting our continued focus on retaining our high-quality book of business.

接著談分部整體的產能表現。續保保費變動為4.8%。若排除財產險線，續保保費變動（RPC）為7.8%，與前一季相比大致持平。續保率仍維持在86%的高水準，反映我們持續聚焦於留住高品質的業務組合。

New business was strong at $805 million, reaching a new quarterly record. The strength of these results reflects our ongoing commitment to investing in products, underwriting precision, and the capabilities we are building for our field organization and distribution partners.

新業務表現強勁，達8.05億美元，創單季新高。這些成果反映我們持續投入產品、提升核保精準度，以及為前線組織與通路夥伴打造能力的承諾。

As for the individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change increased sequentially to a strong 9.4% for the quarter. New business of $153 million was solid. These results underscore our continued investment in products and the industry-leading experience we deliver to our agents and brokers.

就各個業務而言，在Select方面，本季續保保費變動較前一季上升至強勁的9.4%。新業務1.53億美元，表現穩健。這些結果凸顯我們持續投資於產品，以及為代理人與經紀人提供業界領先的服務體驗。

BOP 2.0 remains a key contributor with industry-leading segmentation embedded in the product continuing to support profitable growth. We are encouraged by the new capabilities we are piloting within Travis, our digital platform with recently developed AI advancements to make submission upload seamless through advanced data extraction, rapid prefill of submission information, and the application of sophisticated underwriting rules that generate quotes in seconds, improving the speed and ease of doing business for our distribution partners and for us.

BOP 2.0仍是關鍵貢獻者，產品內建的業界領先分群能力持續支持獲利性成長。我們對正在Travis（我們的數位平台）中試點的新能力感到振奮；該平台近期導入AI進展，透過進階資料擷取讓投保資料上傳更順暢、快速預填投保資訊，並套用精密的核保規則在數秒內產生報價，提升通路夥伴與我們自身的交易速度與便利性。

In middle market, renewal premium change remained steady at 6.1% while retention of 89% remained at historically high levels. New business in middle market of more than $500 million reached an all-time high this quarter, up 17% from prior year levels, driven by our strong value proposition. To sum up, Business Insurance had a terrific second quarter in terms of both financial results and execution. We continue to grow our high-quality book while investing in differentiating capabilities that position us for long-term profitable growth.

在中型市場方面，續保保費變動維持穩定在6.1%，續保率89%亦維持在歷史高檔水準。本季中型市場新業務超過5億美元，創歷史新高，較去年同期成長17%，主要受惠於我們強勁的價值主張。總結來說，商業保險第二季在財務成果與執行面皆表現卓越。我們持續擴大高品質業務組合，同時投資具差異化的能力，以奠定長期獲利性成長的定位。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

接下來我把電話交給Jeff。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report that Bond & Specialty posted another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines. We generated segment income of $234 million and an excellent combined ratio of 82.8%.

謝謝你，Greg，各位早安。我們很高興報告，保證與專業險（Bond & Specialty）本季在營收與獲利兩方面再度繳出強勁表現。我們創造分部收益2.34億美元，綜合率優異，為82.8%。

Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums by a terrific 14% in the quarter to a record $1.2 billion. In our high-quality domestic management liability business, retention ticked up 1 point from the first quarter to 88%, while renewal premium change remained consistent. Our outstanding field team continues to achieve rate gains where appropriate, through segmented and data-driven pricing initiatives, and we are very pleased with the 8% increase in new business, reflecting the value that our distribution partners and customers place on our products and services.

接著看營收端。本季淨簽單保費大幅成長14%，達到創紀錄的12億美元。在我們高品質的美國本土管理責任險業務中，續保率較第一季上升1個百分點至88%，續保保費變動則維持一致。我們傑出的前線團隊持續透過分群與數據驅動的定價計畫，在適當之處取得費率提升；我們也對新業務成長8%感到非常滿意，反映通路夥伴與客戶對我們產品與服務價值的肯定。

Turning to our market-leading surety business. We're also very pleased to have grown net written premiums by 40% from the prior year quarter to a record level. The exceptional production this quarter spanned across our high credit quality portfolio and included a small number of large projects and increased bonding for data center development. We are pleased that our outstanding team's efforts to build the right customer relationships and our investments to support the long-term success of our portfolio of premier contractors generated such terrific production in this profitable business.

接著談我們市場領先的保證（Surety）業務。我們也非常高興淨簽單保費較去年同期大增40%，達到創紀錄水準。本季卓越的產能表現涵蓋我們高信用品質的投資組合，並包含少數大型專案以及資料中心開發帶動的保證額度增加。我們很高興，傑出團隊在建立正確客戶關係上的努力，以及我們為支持頂尖承包商投資組合長期成功所做的投入，使這項具獲利性的業務創造如此亮眼的產能。

So Bond & Specialty Insurance delivered strong profitability and excellent growth in the quarter while continuing to make strategic investments in our competitive advantages, including in our market-leading team and important technology and artificial intelligence capabilities to improve risk selection and efficiency.

因此，保證與專業險本季在持續進行策略性投資、強化競爭優勢的同時，也交出強勁獲利與優異成長；這些投資包括我們市場領先的團隊，以及重要的科技與人工智慧能力，以提升風險篩選與營運效率。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

接下來我把電話交給Michael。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share that in Personal Insurance, we delivered segment income of $827 million for the second quarter. Strong underlying underwriting income, modest catastrophe losses, and favorable prior year reserve development contributed to this excellent bottom line result. The combined ratio was an outstanding 79.5% in the quarter. And the underlying combined ratio of 77.3% once again demonstrated strong profitability in both Automobile and Homeowners and Other.

謝謝你，Jeff，各位早安。我很高興分享，在個人保險（Personal Insurance）方面，我們第二季分部收益為8.27億美元。強勁的核心核保收益、溫和的巨災損失，以及有利的前期年度準備金發展，共同促成這項優異的獲利成果。本季綜合率表現出色，為79.5%。而核心綜合率77.3%再次展現汽車險以及住宅險與其他業務的強勁獲利能力。

Net written premiums for the segment were $4.3 billion, as retention remains solid, while pricing moderated, reflecting strong profitability. New business in Homeowners was higher year-over-year. In Automobile, bottom line results continue to be very strong. The second-quarter combined ratio was 82.8%, reflecting a 4.5 point benefit from favorable prior year reserve development and a strong underlying combined ratio of 85.8%. The underlying combined ratio improved just over 3 points compared to the prior year. This strong result was driven by favorable loss experience across coverages, including about a two-point benefit from the re-estimation of the prior quarter and the current year. These benefits were partially offset by the impact of lower earned pricing reflective of our strong profitability.

該分部的淨簽單保費為43億美元，因為保單續保率仍然穩健，而定價趨於溫和，反映出強勁的獲利能力。住宅屋主險的新業務較去年同期增加。在汽車險方面，最終盈餘表現持續非常強勁。第二季綜合比率為82.8%，反映有利的前期年度準備金發展帶來4.5個點的效益，以及強勁的基礎綜合比率85.8%。與去年同期相比，基礎綜合比率改善了略高於3個點。這項強勁結果主要由各項保障範圍的有利損失經驗所帶動，其中包括約2個點的效益，來自對前一季與本年度的重新估計。這些效益部分被已賺保費定價較低的影響所抵銷，而該較低定價反映了我們強勁的獲利能力。

In Homeowners and Other, the second-quarter combined ratio was an excellent 76.7%, reflecting modest catastrophe losses and very strong underlying underwriting income. The underlying combined ratio of 70.1% was comparable to a strong prior year quarter. We're pleased that our property results continue to demonstrate the benefit of our disciplined approach to optimizing our risk return profile through effective management of our appetite, business mix, pricing, terms and conditions.

在住宅屋主險及其他業務方面，第二季綜合比率優異，為76.7%，反映災害損失溫和以及非常強勁的基礎承保收益。70.1%的基礎綜合比率與去年同期強勁的季度表現相當。我們很高興看到，我們的財產險結果持續展現出我們以嚴謹紀律方式，透過有效管理承保偏好、業務組合、定價、條款與條件，來最佳化風險報酬輪廓所帶來的效益。

Turning to production. We continue to make progress toward our objective of delivering profitable growth over time. In Automobile, retention of 82% was consistent with recent periods. Renewal premium change was flat as we continue to incorporate improved profitability in our pricing. New business levels in auto remain healthy, and we continue to be pleased with the high-quality profile of the business we're writing.

接著談到業務產出。我們持續朝著隨時間推進、實現獲利性成長的目標取得進展。在汽車險方面，82%的續保率與近期期間一致。續保保費變動持平，因為我們持續在定價中納入改善後的獲利能力。汽車險的新業務水準仍然健康，我們也持續對我們所承作業務的高品質輪廓感到滿意。

In Homeowners and Other, retention was strong at 85%. Renewal premium change of 6.60% continued to moderate as intended, given improved profitability and our successful efforts to align insured values with replacement costs. We're pleased with the increase in both new business premium and the number of new business policies compared to the prior year as we broadened our targeted efforts to deploy property capacity.

在住宅屋主險及其他業務方面，續保率強勁，達85%。續保保費變動6.60%如預期持續趨緩，反映獲利能力改善，以及我們成功將保險金額與重置成本對齊的努力。隨著我們擴大針對性部署財產險承保量能的行動，我們很高興看到新業務保費與新保單件數相較去年同期皆有所增加。

We continue to execute a range of initiatives designed to generate growth in both auto and property, adjusting rate levels to reflect strong profitability, enhancing product and pricing segmentation, refining eligibility restrictions, and pursuing new agent appointments and book consolidation opportunities. This quarter's results underscore the strong fundamentals across both Auto and Home. The product of deliberate disciplined actions over the past few years to improve profitability, manage volatility, and position our portfolio for the long term.

我們持續推動一系列旨在帶動汽車險與財產險成長的措施，包括調整費率水準以反映強勁獲利能力、強化產品與定價分層、精進承保資格限制，以及拓展新代理人委任與保單簿整併機會。本季結果凸顯汽車險與住宅險兩者皆具備強勁基本面。這是過去幾年有意識且具紀律的行動所累積的成果，用以提升獲利能力、管理波動性，並為我們的投資組合做長期布局。

We also continue to invest in capabilities to deliver value to our customers and distribution partners by digitizing the insurance journey, modernizing our infrastructure, and simplifying our approach. We remain confident that our disciplined approach to performing today and investing for tomorrow will generate profitable growth over time. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

我們也持續投資各項能力，透過保險旅程數位化、基礎架構現代化，以及簡化我們的方法，為客戶與通路夥伴創造價值。我們仍然有信心，我們在今日執行、為明日投資的紀律作法，將隨時間推進帶來獲利性成長。接下來我把電話交回給Abbe。

Thanks, Michael. We are ready to open up for Q&A.

謝謝，Michael。我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Zaremski, BMO.

（接線員指示）Mike Zaremski，BMO。

First one is just on the competitive dynamics in Business Insurance, maybe specifically on the select account sandbox. Maybe you can talk about why pricing up or be bucking the downwards trend line that the medium and larger accounts are experiencing. Is this you think more traveler specific due to things you're doing? Or do you think it's reflective of the broader environment?

第一個問題是關於商業保險的競爭動態，或許更具體地談談精選帳戶（select account）的範圍。也許你們可以談談，為什麼定價仍在上調，或為何能逆勢而行，不同於中型與大型帳戶所經歷的下行趨勢。你認為這更多是Travelers特有、因為你們正在做的事情所致嗎？還是你認為這反映了更廣泛的環境？

Mike, this is Greg. Well, first, there's no strategic shift underneath the select book. That really is a function of the rate filings that get approved on a state-by-state basis from quarter to quarter. So that can just fluctuate. That's really that's what's underneath that.

Mike，我是Greg。首先，精選業務（select book）底下並沒有策略轉向。那其實是因為費率申報在各州是逐州核准，且每季核准情況不同。所以那可能只是波動。這才是背後的原因。

Mike, leading to your question, you said bucking the trend of other pricing number is going down. I just want to point out that other than property really national property, the pricing environment was very stable.

Mike，回到你的問題，你提到逆勢而行、其他定價數字在下滑。我只想指出，除了財產險——尤其是全國性財產險之外——定價環境其實非常穩定。

That's helpful. I think maybe we focus a little too much or at least I'm a little guilty of focusing a little too much on property. Okay. Just my final follow-up is any -- in terms of just the excellent profit margins pretty much across the board, any prior quarter adjustments that impacted the accident loss ratio that we should be just be considering?

這很有幫助。我想也許我們有點過度聚焦，至少我自己有點過度聚焦在財產險上。好的。最後一個追問：就幾乎全面都非常優異的獲利率而言，有沒有任何前一季的調整影響了事故損失率，是我們應該納入考量的？

Mike, it's Dan. So if you're asking about business insurance, in particular, the answer is no, happy to see 0.5 point or so of improvement in the underlying loss ratio in business insurance, a little bit of pricing benefit still a little bit of mix, a little bit of an improved view of the loss environment overall. And as Greg mentioned in his comments, bunch of the investments that we've been making there, probably starting to pay off. Michael did mention in PI and Auto, in particular, a couple of points of favorable prior quarter re-estimation.

Mike，我是Dan。如果你問的是商業保險，特別是這一塊，答案是沒有；我們很高興看到商業保險的基礎損失率改善了約0.5個點，仍有一些定價效益、一些組合效益，以及對整體損失環境更佳的看法。而如Greg在評論中提到的，我們在那裡所做的一系列投資，可能正開始見到成效。Michael確實提到，在個人保險（PI）與汽車險方面，特別是有幾個點來自對前一季重新估計所帶來的有利影響。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

Gregory Peters，Raymond James。

Well, everyone. So for the first question, I'm going to step back and just ask about the ROE, was the 24.2% ROE on a trailing 12-month basis versus your mid-teens target over time. Alan, I'm just curious, as we look across the enterprise, do you think you could look consider relaxing some of your underwriting standards at price get more aggressive on pricing to grow faster, considering your over -- your returns are far in excess of what your target is longer term? And I guess related to that is when do we get back to that destination of the mid-teens [our] core ROE over time?

各位好。第一個問題我想先退一步，問一下ROE：過去12個月的ROE為24.2%，而你們長期目標是中十位數（mid-teens）。Alan，我很好奇，從整個企業角度來看，鑑於你們的報酬遠高於長期目標，你是否會考慮放寬一些承保標準、在價格上更積極，以更快成長？以及相關的問題是：我們何時會回到那個長期中十位數的核心ROE目標水準？

Well, first of all, we're happy to be above that mid-teens core turn turn on equity over time objective. But to your question, are we going to relax underwriting standards or pricing to try to grow, that's a full (inaudible), and we've always said that's a full (inaudible). And this is a very competitive marketplace. And now relaxed pricing, all you do is end up with same size book of business with lower margins. So our objective is to compete on franchise value. And every -- Firstly, every investment that we're making is geared towards making sure that we've got the franchise value to grow this company profitably. But competing on pricing in this business is a full (inaudible).

首先，我們很高興能高於長期中十位數核心股東權益報酬率的目標。但就你的問題，我們是否會放寬承保標準或在定價上讓步來追求成長——那是完全（聽不清），而且我們一直說那是完全（聽不清）。而這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。而一旦放鬆定價，你最後只會得到規模相同、但利潤率更低的業務組合。因此，我們的目標是以特許經營價值（franchise value）來競爭。而我們所做的每一項投資——首先，每一項投資——都是為了確保我們具備特許經營價值，能夠讓公司以獲利方式成長。但在這個行業用價格競爭，是完全（聽不清）。

It seems to every quarter I ask technology questions, and I just can't help myself. In the last couple of months, there have been numerous reports and commentary about the rising cost of technology implementation, including things like token costs, et cetera. As we've been looking at it from the outside end, we thought -- at least I've been thinking about technology investments as a way to improve efficiency.

我好像每一季都在問科技相關問題，我就是忍不住。過去幾個月，有許多報導與評論提到科技導入成本上升，包括像是token成本等等。從外部來看，我們原本認為——至少我一直在想——科技投資是一種提升效率的方法。

So I'm just curious, as the cost side of technology implementation seems to be rising. Do you think that's going to offset the expected efficiency gains? And related to that, there was a story that popped up about some software glitch that may have happened at your company through an implementation. Just curious when you deploy technology, how you manage potential challenges as that is being rolled out?

所以我很好奇，當科技導入的成本面似乎正在上升時，是否會抵銷原本預期的效率提升？另外也相關的是，有一則消息提到你們公司在某次導入過程中可能發生了軟體故障。想請教你們在部署科技時，如何管理在推行過程中可能出現的挑戰？因為這些系統正在上線時，確實可能會遇到問題。

Yes. There's a lot in that question, Greg, but thanks for the question. We are laser-focused on the cost of technology and innovation. And we have we have substantial productivity and efficiency gains. We talked about in terms of operating leverage. We've generated substantial operating leverage over recent years and even longer periods. So we feel great about that.

是的。Greg，這個問題涵蓋很多面向，但謝謝你的提問。我們非常聚焦於科技與創新的成本。而且我們已經取得顯著的生產力與效率提升。我們也以營運槓桿的角度談過。近幾年乃至更長期間，我們都創造了可觀的營運槓桿。所以我們對此感到非常滿意。

In terms of token costs and how you manage expenses of a large innovation and investment program, you got to remember that we've been innovating as a strategy for more than a decade now, and there's a lot of hard one know-how in doing that. And we said we've done three things really well. We've identified the right priorities. We've executed them very well, and we've harvested the benefits. And part of harvesting the benefits is making sure that you're -- that you understand your cost and that you're managing your costs. And we are laser-focused on that and very comfortable that we're doing a great job there, actually.

就代幣成本以及你如何管理大型創新與投資計畫的費用而言，你必須記得，我們把創新作為策略已經超過十年了，而在這方面累積了很多硬實力與專業訣竅。而且我們說過，我們有三件事做得非常好。我們找對了優先順序。我們把它們執行得非常到位，並且我們收割了成果。而收割成果的一部分，就是確保你——你了解你的成本並且在管理你的成本。我們對此高度聚焦，也很有信心我們確實做得很好。

In terms of the software glitch that you mentioned, it really wasn't a software glitch. The underlying platform is working just fine. We were moving substantial amounts of information as part of a system conversion, and that is just a highly complex undertaking. As always, we regret any disruption to any customer or agent. But sometimes these things happen when you have these large complicated programs. Many of the issues have been resolved, and we will stay at it until every single one of them is resolved.

至於你提到的軟體故障，其實並不是軟體故障。底層平台運作得很好。我們在系統轉換過程中移轉了大量資訊，而這本來就是一項高度複雜的工程。一如既往，我們對任何對客戶或代理人造成的中斷深感抱歉。但在這類大型且複雜的計畫中，有時候確實會發生這些情況。許多問題已經解決，我們會持續處理，直到每一個問題都完全解決。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

Paul Newsome，Piper Sandler。

A little bit of the same question on the ROE, but more talking about capital management. I would love to hear a little bit more full discussion of the high-class problem of the ROE and how you think that we should think about the change -- any change in capital management prospectively, given you should be generating quite a bit of excess capital perspective?

有點類似關於ROE的問題，但我更想談資本管理。我很希望能更完整地聽你們討論這個ROE的「高級問題」，以及在你們應該會產生相當多超額資本的情況下，你們認為我們應該如何看待未來資本管理上的變化——任何可能的變化？

Paul, it's Dan. So I think we've had a long-standing capital management philosophy, which Alan referred to in his prepared remarks that served us and our shareholders really well. And that's been throughout various cycles of either under-earning relative to the mid-teens long-term objective or over earning relative to the mid-teens ROE objective. So I think the beauty of that capital management philosophy is that you're able to apply it in all circumstances.

Paul，我是Dan。我認為我們長期以來一直有一套資本管理理念，Alan在事先準備的發言中也提到過，這套理念對我們以及股東都非常有利。而且在不同景氣循環中，不論是相對於長期中十幾%的目標出現獲利不足，或是相對於中十幾%ROE目標出現超額獲利，都同樣適用。所以我認為這套資本管理理念的優點在於，你可以在各種情境下都加以運用。

And so I said simply, again, we expect to generate strong levels of capital. We want to be a strongly capitalized company. We have consistently generated more capital than we need to run the business, including to support the growth of the business. We're going to look to deploy it, whether that's organically or inorganically, if we think we can do so and generate attractive returns. And to the degree that we've accumulated more capital than we can. We're going to return the rest of it through dividends and share repurchases, which you've seen from us here clearly in the past several quarters.

因此我再簡單說一次，我們預期會產生強勁的資本水準。我們希望成為一家資本非常充足的公司。我們一貫產生的資本都超過經營業務所需，包括支持業務成長所需。我們會尋求部署這些資本，不論是有機或無機，只要我們認為能做到並產生具吸引力的報酬。而在我們累積的資本超過我們所能運用的程度時，我們會透過股利與庫藏股回購把其餘資本回饋給股東，這點你在過去幾季已經很清楚地看到我們在做。

Any difference and thoughts on the M&A environment, which to be part of that capital management?

那在併購環境方面有沒有不同的看法？因為那也是資本管理的一部分。

No. But we are highly attuned to M&A opportunities. And confident that whenever attractive M&A opportunities come around, that we'll find a way to finance them. So our view of M&A doesn't change. It doesn't doesn't change relative to the capital -- excess capital that we have.

沒有。但我們對併購機會保持高度敏銳。而且我們有信心，只要出現具吸引力的併購機會，我們就能找到方式為其籌資。所以我們對併購的看法不變。相對於我們擁有的——超額資本而言，也沒有改變。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

Katie Sakys，Autonomous Research。

First, I wanted to unpack the new business momentum in domestic BI, middle market, a little bit more. Greg, wondering if you could just give us a better understanding of some of the drivers behind the uptick this quarter? And how sustainable you think new business momentum is in the middle market going forward?

首先，我想更深入拆解一下國內BI（商業保險）中型市場的新業務動能。Greg，想請你幫我們更了解一下，本季成長加速背後的一些驅動因素是什麼？以及你認為未來中型市場的新業務動能有多可持續？

Yes, Katie, thank you. Yes, we're certainly proud of the number we put up in middle market. It can be lumpy from time to time given that's a transactional business, but Dan already referenced in my prepared comments, I also talked about the investments we're making that not only impact the loss experience, they impact production also by making sure we've got the best predictive analytic tools, the best risk selections and product and technology that we're putting into the marketplace in addition to claim and risk control. Those items are definitely in demand of our distribution. And I think that helps with the new business also. But given that transactional business, it can bounce around from quarter to quarter.

是的，Katie，謝謝你。是的，我們當然為中型市場交出的數字感到自豪。由於那是交易型業務，數字有時會比較波動；但Dan在我事先準備的發言中已經提到，我也談到我們正在進行的投資，不僅影響損失經驗，也會影響產出，因為我們確保具備最好的預測分析工具、最佳的風險篩選，以及我們投放到市場的產品與科技，此外還包括理賠與風險控管。這些項目確實是我們通路所需要的。我認為這也有助於新業務。但由於是交易型業務，確實可能在季度之間上下波動。

Yes. I totally understand that. And then perhaps as a follow-up, sticking with middle market, completely understand the difficulties in national property and the desire to maintain underwriting discipline there. Are you guys seeing any signs of pricing terms not aligning with your view of risk in middle-market property? Or are trends kind of hanging in higher there or stronger there, I should say.

是的。我完全理解。接著可能作為追問，仍然聚焦中型市場：我完全理解全國性財產險的困難，以及你們希望在那裡維持核保紀律。你們是否看到中型市場財產險的定價條款與你們對風險的看法不一致的跡象？或者說，那裡的趨勢是否仍然偏高或偏強？

Yeah. No, we're not really seeing a material shift in terms and conditions in the middle market property. We're so much on an account provider there. And yeah, we're also going to typically have the GL and the comp but that's been more of a national property dynamic.

是。不，我們並沒有看到中型市場財產險在條款與條件方面出現實質性的轉變。我們在那裡更像是以單一帳戶為主的承保提供者。而且是的，我們通常也會搭配一般責任險（GL）與工傷險（comp），但那更多是全國性財產險的動態。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor。

First question is just for Michael. On the personal auto side, just looking for a little bit of an update on what you're seeing in terms of frequency and severity. Obviously, gas prices have been a little bit higher. Curious if there's any impact flowing through results from that?

第一個問題想請教Michael。在個人汽車險方面，想請你更新一下你們看到的出險頻率與損失嚴重度的情況。顯然油價最近高了一些。好奇這是否對結果帶來任何影響？

Sure, Ryan. Yes, this is Michael. I would say, as I mentioned, the improvement in underlying in Auto was really favorable experience across coverages. That's actually a combination of favorable frequency and severity -- as respect to the question on frequency related to gas prices, I think I've said this before, it's always a little tough to diagnose what's driving frequency improvements.

好的，Ryan。是的，我是Michael。我會說，如我提到的，汽車險的基礎改善主要來自各項保障的有利經驗。這其實是出險頻率與損失嚴重度同時有利的組合——至於你問到油價與頻率的關係，我想我以前也說過，要診斷到底是什麼在驅動頻率改善，總是有點困難。

There tend to be a range of factors. And we can point to a few things, most importantly, improving vehicle technology and advanced safety features in vehicles, less distraction that again, we can measure. But there's not a ton of evidence at least at this point that there have been material changes in driving behavior related to gas prices, particularly as we look through the first part of this year.

通常會有一系列因素。我們可以指出幾個面向，最重要的是車輛科技的進步與車輛先進安全功能的普及、分心駕駛減少（同樣是我們可以衡量的）。但至少到目前為止，並沒有太多證據顯示油價導致駕駛行為出現實質性改變，特別是當我們觀察今年前半段的情況時。

Got it. And then a follow-up just on Dan probably, but just the favorable development in Business Insurance. How about the -- just curious with the casualty lines outside of workers' comp, commercial auto GL. What was kind of the bottom line of the reserve review this quarter?

了解。接著追問可能是問Dan：關於商業保險的有利發展。那在工傷險以外的意外險線別，例如商用車險、一般責任險（GL），本季準備金審視的結論大致是什麼？

Sure, Ryan. So BI, good solid number. I mentioned comp and commercial property. Those were the biggest drivers. And just to give you a sense of magnitude on those, comp was a little more than $200 million. Commercial property was around $80 million and if you think about what's left and you think about all -- there's definitely ups and downs in some of the other lines of business, but the net of those things was a good guy. We have paid particular attention to the casualty lines, including umbrella and Commercial Auto and did not see any pressure there at all this quarter.

當然，Ryan。所以 BI，數字相當穩健。我提到工傷補償和商業財產。這些是最大的驅動因素。為了讓你了解量級，工傷補償略高於 2 億美元。商業財產約 8,000 萬美元；如果你再想想剩下的部分，以及其他所有——在其他一些業務線確實有起有落，但合計起來淨額是正面貢獻。我們特別關注意外險業務線，包括超額責任（umbrella）和商用車險（Commercial Auto），本季在那裡完全沒有看到任何壓力。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

Mark Hughes，Truist Securities。

Talked about the bonded specialty. It sounds like a couple of large projects helped the premium there and then the data center impact how durable do you think that will be?

談到保證保險（bonded）專業險。聽起來有幾個大型專案推升了那裡的保費，另外資料中心的影響，你認為那會有多持久？

Yes, Mark, it's Jeff Klenk. We did see some exceptional growth in the quarter across the portfolio and you've referred to the things I called out in the prepared remarks. It's important to remember that the majority of surety production is coming from new bonds, right? So renewals are really limited to just a few types of obligations in commercial surety.

是的，Mark，我是 Jeff Klenk。本季我們確實看到整體組合出現一些異常強勁的成長，而你也提到了我在事先準備的講稿中點出的那些因素。重要的是要記得，大多數保證保險的承保產出來自新出具的保證債券（new bonds），對吧？因此，續保其實只限於商業保證保險中少數幾種類型的義務。

So we've always expected there will be top line variability. I wouldn't get into projecting the durability of those things. But if you think about the type of projects, the large projects, the data center construction. As the leader in surety in North America and our quality portfolio, high credit quality customers, we believe that we're well positioned to benefit from that future investment in infrastructure particularly when it involves public spending, but also included in these other opportunities I've called out.

所以我們一直預期營收端會有波動。我不會去預測這些因素的持久性。但如果你想想這些專案類型——大型專案、資料中心建設。作為北美保證保險的領導者，加上我們高品質的組合與高信用品質的客戶，我們相信自己具備良好定位，可受惠於未來的基礎建設投資，特別是涉及公共支出的部分，同時也包括我剛才提到的其他機會。

Yeah, I appreciate that. And then a quick follow-up on the commercial properties in Business Insurance, the downdraft was less than it had been the last few quarters. Was that anything to do with mix in the quarter? Is the worst behind us in terms of your top-line experience in commercial property?

好的，感謝說明。接著快速追問一下，關於商業保險（Business Insurance）裡的商業財產，這一季的下滑幅度比過去幾季小。這是否與本季的組合（mix）有關？就商業財產的保費成長經驗而言，最糟的情況是否已經過去了？

Yeah. This is Greg again. Yeah, I think if you're just referencing the net written premium delta from the first quarter to the second quarter, the slight improvement there. there's a number of items, timing variances, reinsurance, the the three used that come up in that particular quarter. But I wouldn't read into that, that that's a signaling of the pricing cycle. I would say that it's incrementally softer and certainly not a reflection of that net written premium delta.

是的。我又是 Greg。是的，我想如果你指的是淨簽單保費（net written premium）從第一季到第二季的變動幅度、那個小幅改善，背後有幾個因素：時點差異、再保，以及在那一季出現的三個使用項目。但我不會把它解讀為定價循環的訊號。我會說它是逐步轉為更疲軟一些，當然也不是那個淨簽單保費變動所反映的結果。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

David Motemaden，Evercore。

Dan, in a prior question, you had mentioned on Business Insurance, you had mentioned a little bit of an improved view of the loss environment overall. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that and maybe just talk about if you've changed the loss cost trend assumption?

Dan，在前一個問題中你提到商業保險（Business Insurance）整體損失環境的看法略有改善。想請你多談一點，並且說說你們是否調整了損失成本趨勢（loss cost trend）的假設？

David, Dan. So we're going to stay away from the loss trend question and sort of for that reason because we say, look, loss trend is one particular fairly narrow definition, you also consider things like changes in base here over time and how you view the loss environment.

David，我是 Dan。所以我們會避免直接回答損失趨勢的問題，原因是我們會說：損失趨勢只是其中一個相對狹義的定義；你也要考量例如基礎（base）隨時間的變化，以及你如何看待損失環境。

So not a big number, so I wouldn't shine a big light on it. It was just one in a series of modestly favorable items. But the reality is like if you just look back at the last couple of years, the margins in Business Insurance from an underlying perspective, have been very good. So we've seen a little bit of favorability probably relative to what we might have thought things were going to look like 1.5 years or 2 years ago, and we're cautiously baking some of that into our picks now, but very small, David.

所以這不是一個很大的數字，我不會特別放大解讀。它只是多個小幅有利因素中的一項。但現實是，如果你回頭看過去幾年，商業保險在基礎層面（underlying）的利潤率一直非常好。因此，相較於我們可能在 1.5 年或 2 年前所預期的情況，我們看到了一些偏有利的表現；我們也謹慎地把其中一部分納入目前的損失選取（loss picks），但幅度非常小，David。

Got it. No, that makes sense. And then one of the drivers, Greg and Dan also mentioned just -- you also just mentioned just on the investments that you've been making that are probably starting to have an impact within the underlying loss ratio in BI. I guess, how should we think about that flowing through going forward? Or is that just a step change now that's embedded in the run rate? Or is that an ongoing tailwind that will keep building as an offset that we should consider to some of the pricing dynamics.

了解。嗯，這很合理。另外一個驅動因素，Greg 和 Dan 也提到——你剛才也提到——你們所做的一些投資，可能開始對 BI 的基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）產生影響。我們接下來應該如何看待這個影響的傳導？這是否已經是嵌入在目前的運行率（run rate）中的一次性階躍變化？還是說這是一個會持續累積的順風（tailwind），可用來抵銷我們需要考量的一些定價動態？

So David, Dan, again, I'll start. Again, we're talking about very small numbers, right? The underlying loss ratio and business insurance changed by about 0.5 point. So these are not big things. But it does go into our thought process of why it's important to think about more than just what's the pure rate number or what's the pure renewal premium change number. There are other things that impact the loss environment, including actions we take with underwriting appetite terms and conditions, deductible levels, claim efficiency, all those things.

David，我是 Dan，我再先說。同樣地，我們談的是非常小的數字，對吧？商業保險的基礎損失率大約變動了 0.5 個點。所以這些都不是很大的事情。但這也納入我們的思考：為什麼重要的是不要只看純粹的費率數字，或純粹的續保保費變動數字。還有其他因素會影響損失環境，包括我們在核保偏好、條款與條件、自負額水準、理賠效率等方面採取的行動，所有這些。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，UBS。

First, I'm just curious, workers' compensation insurance, we've seen some reports out there about maybe longer recovery times happening and perhaps that's related to just some of the fears of unemployment with respect to AI. Curious, are you seeing that? And maybe in that context, how does that kind of factor in your thoughts on reserving for workers' comp?

首先我有點好奇，工傷補償保險方面，我們看到一些報告提到可能出現更長的復原時間，而這或許與對 AI 造成失業的擔憂有關。想問你們有看到這種情況嗎？在這個脈絡下，這會如何影響你們對工傷補償準備金提存（reserving）的看法？

Brian, it's Dan. So I'll take it at least from a reserving perspective. So again, first quarter and second quarter here, again, another couple of favorable quarters in terms of PYD, which would tell you that we're really not seeing pressure from a severity perspective. And comp continues to be favorability, both on frequency and severity. And I would just go back to the comments we've made many times before, which is we take very respectful view of what the long-term severity trend in workers' comp is going to be.

Brian，我是 Dan。我先從準備金的角度回答。所以同樣地，第一季和第二季又是兩個在前期年度發展（PYD）方面偏有利的季度，這表示從損失嚴重度（severity）的角度來看，我們確實沒有看到壓力。而工傷補償在出險頻率（frequency）與嚴重度兩方面都持續呈現有利。我也想回到我們之前多次提過的評論：我們對工傷補償長期嚴重度趨勢會如何發展，一直抱持非常審慎、尊重風險的看法。

And even if the more recent periods have been pretty benign, our assumption in our loss picks and in our reserves is still that severity is going to go back to some higher more normal long-term trends. So even if there were some increase in severity, whether it's because people are out longer or injuries cost more, unless it gets outside of your pick, we're not going to have a problem. The other thing I'd say just specific to your question, we didn't really see anything specific in the most recent data that aligns with the problem you are alluding to.

即使近期期間相當溫和，我們在損失選取（loss picks）與準備金中的假設仍然是：嚴重度會回到較高、較正常的長期趨勢。因此，即便嚴重度有所上升，不論是因為人們請假時間更長或傷害成本更高，只要沒有超出我們的選取假設，我們就不會有問題。另外就你提的具體問題而言，我們在最新資料中並沒有看到任何明確跡象與你所暗示的問題相吻合。

But the other thing I would add, Brian, just to sort of a general matter is that is that we expect some changes in frequency and severity in workers' comp as a function of economic activity. So that will impact the frequency at which workers go out and the length that they stay out. And so we've got a view on whether improving or deteriorating economy is going to -- to what degree is going to contribute to those. And so we bake that into our assumptions.

不過我還想補充一點，Brian，從更一般的角度來看，我們預期工傷補償的出險頻率與嚴重度會隨經濟活動而變動。因此，這會影響員工請領（離開工作崗位）的頻率，以及他們離開的時間長短。所以我們對於經濟改善或惡化將在多大程度上影響這些因素，是有一套看法的。我們也把這些納入我們的假設中。

Makes sense. And the second one, I guess for Michael. Michael, I know there's a bunch of initiatives that you're implementing to try to get growth going in personal auto insurance. But maybe I'm just curious, how reasonable is to think that growth is going to actually pick up there given just the competitive dynamics? It seems like every company out there is looking to grow and cutting prices.

有道理。第二個我想是給 Michael 的。Michael，我知道你正在推動一系列措施，試圖讓個人汽車保險的成長動能起來。但我有點好奇，考量到競爭態勢，認為那邊的成長真的會回升，這樣的想法有多合理？看起來每家公司都想要成長、也都在降價。

Yes, Brian, I mean I think you're describing the environment. And again, you all have visibility into just like we do the rate environment, and you see the the filings and broadly speaking, rate continues to be decreasing in personal auto. I would say what we are doing is everything that we think is appropriate to profitably grow that business. The things that I mentioned, I would just put a little more color around like when we talk about adjusting rate levels to reflect strong profitability, Alan talked earlier about lowering price in this business to grow as a pool of they are in.

是的，Brian，我想你描述的就是目前的環境。而且同樣地，你們和我們一樣都能看到費率環境，你們也看到申報資料；整體而言，個人車險的費率仍在下滑。我會說，我們正在做我們認為一切適當的事情，以在可獲利的前提下擴大這項業務。我剛提到的那些事情，我再補充一點背景：當我們談到調整費率水準以反映強勁的獲利能力時，Alan 先前提到在這項業務中降價來成長、把自己放進他們所在的那個池子裡。

That's not what we're doing, right? What we're trying to do is match price to risk. And so our strategy in auto is we want to match price to risk, we want to have the most sophisticated segmented product we can have in the marketplace. We want to have the appropriate eligibility that aligns with our appetite. And then we want to make sure that we are in all the places, taking advantage of all the opportunities that we can to be able to produce profitable business.

那不是我們在做的事，對吧？我們要做的是讓價格與風險相匹配。因此，我們在車險的策略是：讓價格對應風險，打造市場上我們能提供的最精細、最成熟的分層（分段）產品。我們希望有與風險偏好一致的適當承保資格（eligibility）。接著，我們要確保我們在所有地方、把握所有機會，以便能夠產出可獲利的業務。

And again, as I talked about this quarter, new business levels in Auto have been healthy, and we're very pleased with the profile of the business that we're writing as a result. So we're going to continue to execute our strategy. The outcome of that strategy, to your point, is going to be a little bit the function of the market, but we're going to do what we think is appropriate to profitably grow the business.

再者，如我在本季所談到的，車險的新業務水準一直很健康，我們也對因此承作的業務組合（profile）感到非常滿意。所以我們會持續執行我們的策略。你說得沒錯，這個策略的結果在某種程度上會取決於市場，但我們會做我們認為適當的事，以在可獲利的前提下擴大這項業務。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon，摩根大通。

The first question I have is for Michael. As you pivot the growth in personal lines, can you talk about your approach to treating off or, I guess, balancing margins versus unit growth rate? And I guess sort of simplify the question right, at what combined ratio would you be comfortable running the book, recognizing that it's producing margins that are really good today, right? And that your book is more balanced between personal auto and homeowners compared to the broader market.

我的第一個問題是給 Michael 的。當你把個人險的成長重心轉向（pivot）時，能否談談你在取捨、或說平衡利潤率與保單件數成長率方面的做法？我把問題簡化一下：在認知到目前這本業務的利潤非常好之下，你會願意用什麼樣的綜合率（combined ratio）來經營這本業務？另外，你們的業務組合相較於整體市場，在個人車險與住宅險之間更為均衡。

Sure, Pablo. Maybe just to put a point on the comment I made earlier, right? We have target returns. Our target return is mid-teens over time. When we talk about adjusting pricing to reflect profitability, that's what we're doing, right? We're reevaluating our loss experience state by state in the line of business, whether we talk in property or auto, determining what we think an adequate price is at those target returns and then we're filing for that pricing.

當然可以，Pablo。也許先把我先前的評論再點明一下：我們有目標報酬。我們的目標報酬是長期維持在十幾%的中段（mid-teens）。當我們談到調整定價以反映獲利能力時，我們做的就是這件事。我們會逐州、逐險種重新檢視我們的損失經驗，不論是財產險或車險，判斷在那些目標報酬下我們認為足夠的價格是多少，然後就以該價格去申報（filing）。

So that's the -- that's the approach we've taken. It really is driven towards mid-teens ROE over time. Clearly, we're above the mid-teens right now. And so that's why you see renewal premium change moderating in both lines of business.

所以這就是——這就是我們採取的方法。它確實是以長期達到十幾%中段的股東權益報酬率（ROE）為導向。很明顯地，我們目前高於十幾%中段。因此你會看到兩條業務線的續保保費變動幅度都在趨於溫和。

And then second question I have for Dan. I guess just on the full-year expense ratio guide of [20.5%]. I was wondering if you could provide just more color on what gets you there in the second half of the year, right? You're implying that there's going to be improvement. Is it contingent tailing off, just premium growth picking up, expense ratio. So any color or commentary would be helpful there, Dan.

然後第二個問題是給 Dan 的。關於全年費用率指引[20.5%]。我想請你多補充一些：下半年是什麼因素讓你們能達到那個水準？你們暗示下半年會改善。這是否取決於或有事項（contingent）費用減少、或是保費成長回升、從而帶動費用率下降？所以任何補充說明或評論都會很有幫助，Dan。

Yes, Pablo. So not a lot I can give you other than, again, I think we made this comment last quarter. If you go back and look at the last five years or so of our results, I think with the exception of 2025, which was pretty steady, it's not at all unusual to see the expense ratio vary within a year by a point or more from quarter to quarter.

是的，Pablo。我能補充的不多；不過同樣地，我想我們上季也提過。如果你回頭看我們過去五年左右的結果，我認為除了 2025 年相對平穩之外，費用率在一年之內、季度之間上下波動一個百分點或更多，其實並不罕見。

So we've got an outlook view of what we think some of our run rate expense levels are. We line that up against what earned premium looks like. You get little math courts like there are actually more days of earned premium in the second half of the year than there are in the first half of the year. That's our view. Currently, there's no particular change coming in the second half of the year strategically or any kind of slowdown in investment spending or anything like that. We just think when we put the four quarters together, we're going to still be pretty close to that [20.5%].

所以我們對一些費用的常態水準（run rate）有一個展望判斷。我們把它和已賺保費（earned premium）的走勢對齊。你會遇到一些小小的數學因素，例如下半年已賺保費的天數其實比上半年多。這就是我們的看法。目前，下半年在策略上沒有任何特別的改變，也沒有投資支出放緩之類的情況。我們只是認為把四個季度合在一起看，全年仍會相當接近[20.5%]。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

Rob Cox，高盛。

Just a follow-up on the property discussion. I know large account property and cat rates get a lot of attention, but we've noticed Travelers and the industry CMP loss ratios are at historic profitability as well. Maybe you could just talk about how you're viewing that book right now and if we should expect the gap between large and small account pricing could start to narrow.

就財產險的討論追問一下。我知道大型帳戶財產險與巨災（cat）費率很受關注，但我們也注意到 Travelers 以及整體產業的 CMP 損失率同樣處於歷史性的高獲利水準。也許你可以談談你們目前如何看待那本業務，以及我們是否應該預期大型與小型帳戶之間的定價差距可能開始收斂。

Yeah. Let me give you a couple of comments on that. Typically, you'll see in the change of cycles national property, large scheduled property leading both the firming and the softening the trough of the marketplace. And you won't see the rest of the property portfolio, all to the depths or the peak you would see on national property. And that's kind of the cycle we're in right now. The property outside of national property in our core middle-market business, the component underneath CMP Select that you just referenced, has a little bit of softening to it, but certainly not to the degree that you're seeing in the national property and the large schedules.

好的。我對此補充幾點。通常在景氣循環變化中，全國性財產險（national property）、大型排程財產險（large scheduled property）會在市場走向緊縮與走向寬鬆時都扮演領先角色，帶領市場到達谷底或高峰。而你不會看到其餘的財產險組合，像全國性財產險那樣走到同樣深的谷底或同樣高的峰值。這大概就是我們目前所處的循環。在我們核心的中型市場業務中、全國性財產險以外的財產險——也就是你剛提到 CMP Select 底下的那個組成——確實有些許走軟，但程度當然不如你在全國性財產險與大型排程上看到的那麼明顯。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then if I could just ask more directly on some of the, I think, opening comments on the claims straight-through processing, enhancements and AI initiatives there. Are we starting to see that in the business insurance margin this quarter? And how should we expect that to trend?

了解。這很有幫助。另外，如果我可以更直接地問一下：關於我想你們在開場提到的理賠直通式處理（straight-through processing）、相關強化以及 AI 計畫。我們是否已經在本季的商業保險利潤率中看到這些成效？而你們預期它會如何發展？

I think the answer is yes. I mean, that was the reference in Greg script, Dan referred to it. So we are seeing benefits coming from the investments and the innovation. I mean it's in -- it was a 0.5 point improvement in the underlying loss ratio. And there's a couple of things going one way or the other in there, but that was big enough that it was worth bringing some attention to it. And I wouldn't say this is still the first time it's ever appeared. It's just -- it's in the context of some other pieces that are moving one way or another, but we are very clearly generating benefits from the innovation and AI investments that we're making.

我想答案是肯定的。我的意思是，Greg 的講稿裡有提到，Dan 也提到了。所以我們確實正在看到投資與創新帶來的效益。也就是——基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）改善了 0.5 個百分點。其中有幾個因素彼此一來一往，但改善幅度夠大，值得特別提出來。我不會說這是第一次出現；只是——在其他一些項目也在變動的背景下，我們非常明確地正在從我們所做的創新與 AI 投資中產生效益。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

My first question was just going back to the BI discussion. And just some of the commentary, Dan, you just gave around the change in view on loss trends in the quarter. Does that mean that you took down the uncertainty provision that you guys had put up over the last couple of years?

我的第一個問題是回到 BI 的討論。以及，Dan，你剛才就本季對損失趨勢看法變化所做的一些評論。這是否意味著你們把過去幾年建立的「不確定性準備」下調了？

No, Elyse, it does not. So we had the uncertainty provision in '24 and '25 and said I think at the end of the first quarter, we had carried it into '26, and we continue to carry it into 2026.

不，Elyse，並不是。我們在 24 年和 25 年都有不確定性準備，我想在第一季末我們把它延續到 26 年，而且我們仍然持續保留到 2026 年。

Okay. And then my second question, going back to the capital discussion. I know at times you guys have kind of balanced capital return relative to capital needed for growth as as premium growth, right, is slowing relative to some of the more recent years, should we think about repurchases and dividends combined, constituting a greater percentage of operating earnings from here?

好的。那我的第二個問題回到資本的討論。我知道你們有時會在資本回饋與成長所需資本之間做平衡，因為保費成長相較於近幾年正在放緩；那麼我們是否應該認為，從現在起，庫藏股回購與股利合計將占營運盈餘更高的比例？

Yes, Elyse, it's Dan. So I think the short answer would be, over time, yes. I don't think you could apply that to any particular quarter or even necessarily full year. We're going to always see what's happening in a particular quarter given profitability, cat activity in particular. But over time, yes, and that's why we made the comment probably going back now three years when the business was growing, that [Street], we thought, had gotten a little ahead of itself in terms of expected buybacks by not factoring in the need to hold capital for additional growth. We still expect to grow and are still growing, but to the degree that, that growth might be a little slower than it had been in recent years. The need to accumulate additional capital is going to come down a little bit with it.

是的，Elyse，我是 Dan。我想簡短的答案是，隨著時間推移，是的。但我不認為你可以把這套邏輯套用到任何特定季度，甚至不一定能套用到整個年度。我們會一直觀察特定季度發生了什麼，尤其是獲利能力與巨災活動。但長期來看，是的；這也是為什麼我們大概在三年前、當業務仍在成長時就提到，[華爾街]在預期回購方面可能有點超前，因為沒有把為了額外成長而需要保留資本的需求納入考量。我們仍然預期會成長，也確實仍在成長；但若成長速度相較近年稍微放慢一些，累積額外資本的需求也會隨之略為下降。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Alan, if I can go back to the comments you made on trading some excess margin for growth. I guess the question is, that I would assume that in the fragmented small or middle market, that there are companies that simply can't keep up with their pricing because of their scale and analytical advantages. Am I missing something there?

Alan，如果我可以回到你提到以部分超額利潤換取成長的評論。我的問題是：我原本以為在分散的小型或中型市場中，確實有些公司因為規模與分析優勢不足，根本無法跟上你們的定價。我是不是漏想了什麼？

I'm trying to understand the question, Meyer?

Meyer，我想先確認一下你的問題是什麼？

So let me try and rephrase. Like when -- so you talked about how it's the [full variant] to lower pricing to gain share. And I understand that conceptually, but my impression or presumption is that you won't necessarily invite the same level of competitiveness because business that's very profitable for travelers is not going to be anywhere near as profitable for companies with higher expenses and less capable loss control, which would, I think, call for maybe a little bit more aggressive pricing. So wondering what I'm not thinking of there.

那我換個方式問。例如你提到，為了取得市占而降低定價是「[完全變體]」。我在概念上理解，但我的印象或假設是：對 Travelers 來說非常有利可圖的業務，對於費用更高、損失控制能力較弱的公司而言，不可能同樣那麼有利可圖；因此我認為他們可能需要更積極的定價。所以我想知道我哪裡沒有考慮到。

Yeah. So I shared a principal, Meyer. And of course, there are going to be variations from that principle in different circumstances. The other thing I would distinguish is lowering price where you're actually lowering returns versus lowering price because you can do so without impairing returns. And those are two different scenarios. But there's circumstances that are exceptions to every rule. But as a general rule, it's our big preference not to compete on price because for all the reasons we've shared, and we prefer to compete based on franchise value.

是的。Meyer，我同意一個原則。當然，在不同情境下，會有偏離該原則的情況。另外我會區分兩種情況：一種是降價會實際降低報酬；另一種是因為你有能力在不損及報酬的前提下降價。這是兩種不同的情境。但每個規則都有例外。不過一般而言，我們非常偏好不要用價格競爭，原因我們都已分享；我們更偏好以特許經營價值來競爭。

Okay. Understood. And then just a real question on surety, how should we think about the policy terms, especially for the larger projects on the data center stuff, does that extend the earnings period for the written premium?

好的。了解。另外一個關於保證保險（surety）的實際問題：我們應該如何看待保單條款，特別是資料中心相關較大型專案？這是否會拉長已簽單保費的認列期間？

So larger projects might have longer durations, Meyer. This is Jeff Klenk, by the way. So there is an aspect on some of that. The underlying terms of all of these projects are bespoke, the contract between -- the contract or the project owner are carefully analyzed. We actually provide consultative underwriting as part of that process. And so it's not like there's standard policy terms. These are all individual contracts in the bond responds to those.

Meyer，較大型的專案可能會有較長的期間。順帶一提，我是 Jeff Klenk。所以在某些案子上確實有這個面向。這些專案的底層條款都是量身訂做的；我們會仔細分析合約——也就是合約或專案業主之間的條款。我們實際上也在這個流程中提供顧問式核保。因此並不存在所謂的標準保單條款。這些都是個別合約，而保證債券會依其條款作出回應。

It's actually one of our competitive advantages and the service that we provide to our customers is engaging in that process. But it's fair for you to think that on some of this business, the longer they are -- or the larger they are, they might be longer. But for our portfolio broadly, we've got lots of different sizes of contractors and types of projects in there. So while there is some movement on some of the larger, it doesn't move the overall needle very much. Thanks for the question.

這其實是我們的競爭優勢之一；我們提供給客戶的服務，就是參與這個流程。不過你這樣理解也合理：在部分業務上，專案越長——或越大——可能期間就越長。但就我們整體投資組合而言，裡面有各種不同規模的承包商與不同類型的專案。因此，雖然在一些較大型案子上會有些變化，但對整體影響不大。謝謝你的提問。

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Abbe for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來我將把電話會議交回給 Abbe 作結語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate your time. And as usual, if there's any follow-up, please get in touch with investor relations. Have a good day.

感謝各位參與。我們很感謝大家的時間。一如往常，如有任何後續問題，請與投資人關係部門聯繫。祝各位有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。