旅行家集團 (TRV) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October 16, 2026.

（音訊進行中）（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次電話會議於 2026 年 10 月 16 日錄音。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abby Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

此刻，我想將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁 Abby Goldstein 女士。Goldstein 女士，請開始。

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our third-quarter 2026 results. We released our press release, financial supplement, and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加 Travelers 對 2026 年第三季業績的說明。我們今天稍早已發布新聞稿、財務補充資料以及網路直播簡報。上述所有資料皆可於 travelers.com 網站的「投資人」專區查閱。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; and Dan Frey, CFO; and our three segment presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

今天的發言人包括董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer、財務長 Dan Frey，以及三位事業部總裁：商業保險的 Greg Toczydlowski、保證與專業保險（Bond & Specialty Insurance）的 Jeff Klenk，以及個人保險的 Michael Klein。他們將討論本公司業務的財務表現與目前的市場環境。在進行事先準備的發言時，他們將參照網路直播簡報，之後我們將開放提問。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

在我把電話交給 Alan 之前，請各位留意網路直播簡報末尾所附的說明性註記。我們今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資人，任何前瞻性陳述均涉及風險與不確定性，且不保證未來表現。由於多項因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示者有重大差異。這些因素已於我們的盈餘新聞稿之「前瞻性陳述」段落，以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的最新 10-Q 與 10-K 中說明。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之任何義務。

Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement, and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

此外，在我們的發言或回答問題時，可能會提及某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。相關調節表已收錄於我們近期的盈餘新聞稿、財務補充資料，以及本公司網站投資人專區提供的其他資料中。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在，我想把電話交給 Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're pleased to report excellent third-quarter results. It was another in a run of successful quarters with very strong underwriting performance across all three segments and a record result from our investment portfolio. We also continue to make steady progress on important strategic initiatives that will continue to set us apart.

謝謝你，Abbe。各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。我們很高興報告第三季取得極佳的成果。這是連續多個成功季度中的又一季，三大事業部皆展現非常強勁的核保表現，且投資組合創下紀錄性的成果。我們也持續在重要的策略性計畫上穩步推進，這些計畫將持續讓我們脫穎而出。

For the quarter, we had core income of $1.95 billion or $9.18 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 22.1%. Over the trailing four quarters, we generated core return on equity of 24.1%. Underwriting income of $1.4 billion pretax was driven by strong levels of underlying underwriting income and net favorable prior year reserve development. Profitability was excellent on both a reported and underlying basis. The combined ratio improved to 86.8%, and the underlying combined ratio remained very strong at 84.1%, with all three segments posting strong contributions.

本季核心收益為 19.5 億美元，或每股稀釋後 9.18 美元，核心股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 22.1%。過去連續四季，我們的核心股東權益報酬率為 24.1%。稅前核保收益 14 億美元，主要由強勁的基礎核保收益水準以及前期年度準備金淨有利發展所帶動。無論以報表口徑或基礎口徑衡量，獲利能力皆十分出色。綜合比率改善至 86.8%，基礎綜合比率仍維持在非常強勁的 84.1%，三大事業部皆有強勁貢獻。

Turning to investments, our high-quality investment portfolio continued its trajectory of delivering higher levels of net investment income. After-tax net investment income increased by 7% to $908 million benefiting from strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and a strong result from our non-fixed income portfolio. Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to return $1.8 billion of excess capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $1.5 billion of share repurchases.

談到投資，我們高品質的投資組合持續沿著提升淨投資收益的軌跡前進。稅後淨投資收益增加 7% 至 9.08 億美元，受惠於規模持續成長的固定收益投資組合所帶來強勁且穩健的報酬，以及非固定收益投資組合的亮眼表現。我們的核保與投資成果，加上強健的資產負債表，使我們得以在本季向股東返還 18 億美元的超額資本，其中包含 15 億美元的庫藏股回購。

Just since the beginning of 2025, we have returned $8 billion of capital through share repurchases, retiring 12% of the shares then outstanding in the process. Even after the return of capital and having made substantial investments in the business, adjusted book value per share at the end of the third quarter was 24% higher than at the beginning of 2025 and 15% higher than a year ago.

自 2025 年初以來，我們已透過股票回購返還 80 億美元資本，並在此過程中註銷當時流通在外股數的 12%。即使在返還資本並對業務進行大量投資之後，第三季末每股調整後帳面價值仍較 2025 年初高出 24%，也較一年前高出 15%。

Turning to the top line, we generated net written premiums of $11.5 billion in the quarter. In Business Insurance, we grew in every line other than property, generating net written premiums of $5.9 billion. That's 4% higher than the prior year quarter, adjusting for the sale of our Canadian business. Across the board, the triad of renewal premium change, retention and returns reflects outstanding and deliberate execution. Renewal premium change in this segment was 4.1%, including renewal premium change of 5.4% in our core middle market business and 7.8% in our small commercial select business.

再看保費收入面，本季我們的淨簽單保費為 115 億美元。在商業保險方面，除財產險外，我們在各險種皆實現成長，淨簽單保費達 59 億美元。若調整出售加拿大業務的影響，較去年同期增加 4%。整體而言，續保保費變動、續保率與報酬三者的組合，反映出卓越且有意識的執行力。本事業部的續保保費變動為 4.1%，其中核心中型市場業務的續保保費變動為 5.4%，小型商業精選業務為 7.8%。

Excluding the property line, we know premium change in the segment was 7%. Retention, which as you've heard us say before, is an important indicator of marketplace stability, remained very strong at 86% and was higher or stable on every line. New business of $699 million was up 4% over the prior year quarter. To be growing 4% ex Canada at such strong returns is a terrific achievement. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we also delivered trigger growth and strong returns.

若排除財產險，該事業部的淨簽單保費變動為 7%。續保率（如同我們先前所提）是衡量市場穩定性的重要指標，仍維持在非常強勁的 86%，且各險種皆較前期提高或持平。新業務保費為 6.99 億美元，較去年同期增加 4%。在如此強勁的報酬水準下（不含加拿大）仍能成長 4%，是一項非常出色的成就。在保證與專業保險方面，我們同樣實現了強勁成長與優異報酬。

We grew net written premiums by 12% to $1.2 billion. In our Management Liability business, renewal premium change improved sequentially to 3.8% while retention remained steady at an excellent 89%. New business was up 18% over the prior year quarter. In our leading surety business, we grew net written premiums by 21% reflecting continued strong production across the portfolio. In Personal Insurance, we generated net written premiums of $4.4 billion with solid retention in both auto and homeowners and higher new business in homeowners. We will hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

我們的淨簽單保費成長 12% 至 12 億美元。在管理責任險業務中，續保保費變動較前一季改善至 3.8%，續保率則維持在優異的 89%。新業務較去年同期增加 18%。在我們領先的保證保險（surety）業務中，淨簽單保費成長 21%，反映整體投保組合持續強勁的產能與承作表現。在個人保險方面，我們的淨簽單保費為 44 億美元，汽車險與住宅險皆維持穩健續保率，且住宅險新業務增加。稍後我們將聽 Greg、Jeff 與 Michael 更詳細說明各事業部的業績表現。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to spend a few minutes on an important focus of our innovation work, defending our customers against legal system abuse. Lawsuit abuse raises cost for everyone from the businesses and families we insure to every corner of the broader economy. Liability across GL, umbrella, auto and CMP is a significant share of our loss costs. While conditions have been generally consistent with our expectations, the drivers remain active and continue to put upward pressure on liability losses.

在我把電話交給 Dan 之前，我想用幾分鐘談談我們創新工作的一項重要重點：協助客戶防範法律制度濫用。濫訴行為會提高所有人的成本，從我們承保的企業與家庭，到更廣泛經濟體的各個角落皆受影響。在一般責任險（GL）、超額責任險（umbrella）、汽車險與商業多險種保單（CMP）中，責任損失占我們損失成本的相當大比重。雖然整體狀況大致符合我們的預期，但相關驅動因素仍然活躍，並持續對責任損失造成上行壓力。

Our approach is straightforward, resolve legitimate claims fairly and promptly by paying what we owe. We were early to recognize the change in the litigation loss environment at the end of 2018 and that gave us a head start in investing in technology and developing innovative claim strategies. We believe that gives us a meaningful early mover advantage and our innovation efforts are now giving us tools we've never had before.

我們的方法很直接：對正當理賠以公平且迅速的方式處理，支付我們應付的金額。我們在 2018 年底即及早察覺訴訟損失環境的變化，這讓我們能搶先投入科技並發展創新的理賠策略。我們相信這為我們帶來了具實質意義的先行者優勢，而我們的創新努力如今也正提供我們過去從未擁有的工具。

Let me share a few examples. For unrepresented claimants, we've developed a digital tool to help resolve claims promptly and fairly. It's grounded in our simple philosophy of empathy, education and empowerment which we've built directly into the experience. In a pilot, more than 80% of the claimants to whom we've offered the tool have engaged with it, and overall results are very encouraging.

我分享幾個例子。針對未委任代理人的索賠人，我們開發了一項數位工具，協助以迅速且公平的方式解決理賠。其核心建立在我們「同理、教育、賦能」的簡單理念之上，並已直接融入使用體驗中。在試點計畫中，超過 80% 我們提供該工具的索賠人都有使用互動，整體結果相當令人鼓舞。

When the claimant has an attorney, we're using AI to sharpen our responses to their demands. It starts with the file. AI gives our claim professionals a faster, deeper command of claim files that can run hundreds of pages.

當索賠方有律師代理時，我們正運用 AI 來強化對其要求的回應。一切從案卷開始。AI 讓我們的理賠專業人員能更快、更深入地掌握理賠檔案；這些檔案可能長達數百頁。

It services key facts and issues and help shapes arguments. That makes our people both more effective and more efficient. Consistent with our longtime practice of maintaining a tight feedback loop between claim and underwriting which is how we were so early to recognize social inflation in the first place. The technology also feeds granular loss information back to our underwriters. A more accurate view of loss information as better risk selection, pricing and claims strategies.

它會彙整關鍵事實與爭點，並協助形成論點。這讓我們的同仁在效果與效率上都更出色。這也符合我們長期以來在理賠與核保之間維持緊密回饋循環的做法——正因如此，我們才能在一開始就很早辨識到社會通膨。該技術也會把更細緻的損失資訊回饋給核保人員。對損失資訊更精準的掌握，有助於更佳的風險篩選、定價與理賠策略。

We pay what's fair. And when we can't resolve a claim of what we believe is a fair outcome, we're prepared to defend our customers in litigation. We choose our matters carefully, and the outcomes demonstrate that we're effective when we do. Beyond the direct financial impact of our successful litigation, our approach helps set realistic expectations from the start and that's part of the value proposition we bring to our customers.

我們支付公平合理的金額。當我們無法就我們認為公平的結果解決理賠時，我們也已準備好在訴訟中為客戶辯護。我們會審慎挑選案件，而結果也證明，只要我們出手，就能有效應對。除了成功訴訟帶來的直接財務影響之外，我們的方法也有助於從一開始就建立務實的預期，這也是我們為客戶帶來的價值主張之一。

These are just a few illustrations of a broader proprietary effort that leverages talent, technology, behavioral science and more. What we're doing now isn't about doing what we've always done a little better. We've developed new and growing capabilities that let us do what simply couldn't be done before. We believe our expertise, capabilities and approach will help us bend the loss cost curve. As we continue to invest, we expect this to deliver growing value for our customers and shareholders, building on the benefits we've already seen from some of our initiatives.

以上只是我們更廣泛、專有努力中的幾個例子；該努力結合人才、科技、行為科學等多項要素。我們現在做的，不是把一向在做的事情稍微做得更好而已。我們已建立起新的、且持續成長的能力，使我們能做到過去根本做不到的事。我們相信，我們的專業、能力與方法將有助於扭轉損失成本曲線。隨著我們持續投資，我們預期這將為客戶與股東帶來日益增加的價值，並在我們部分計畫已見成效的基礎上再接再厲。

To wrap it up, our excellent underwriting and investment results through the first nine months of the year reflect our unmatched competitive advantages and the strength of the value proposition we offer to our customers and distribution partners. We are well positioned to close out an outstanding year. That momentum, the advances we are making on our innovation agenda and the best talent in the industry give us tremendous confidence heading into 2027 and beyond.

總結來說，我們在今年前九個月的卓越核保與投資成果，反映出我們無可匹敵的競爭優勢，以及我們為客戶與通路合作夥伴所提供之價值主張的強度。我們已做好充分準備，以亮眼表現為這一年畫下句點。這股動能、我們在創新議程上取得的進展，以及業界最優秀的人才，讓我們對邁向 2027 年及更長遠的未來充滿信心。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，我很高興把電話會議交給 Dan。

Thank you, Alan. In the third quarter, we once again delivered excellent financial results on a consolidated basis and in each of our three segments. Core income for the quarter of $1.95 billion marked our sixth consecutive quarter with earnings of more than $1 billion and brings our trailing 12-month core return on equity to 24.1%. Both the quarter and the trailing 12 months reflect excellent underwriting results, coupled with strong investment income.

謝謝你，Alan。第三季，我們在合併基礎以及三大事業部門中，再次交出優異的財務成果。本季核心收益為 19.5 億美元，這是我們連續第六季獲利超過 10 億美元，並使我們過去 12 個月的核心股東權益報酬率達到 24.1%。本季與過去 12 個月的表現皆反映出卓越的核保成果，並搭配強勁的投資收益。

We generated slightly higher net written premiums despite the absence of the Canadian businesses we sold at the beginning of 2026, while delivering excellent combined ratios on both the reported and underlying basis. At 84.1%, the underlying combined ratio marked its ninth consecutive quarter below 86%. The combination of strong earned premiums and the excellent underlying combined ratio led to after-tax underlying underwriting income of $1.4 billion, continuing our run of historically strong underlying underwriting results. Our year-to-date after-tax underlying underwriting income of $3.9 billion is virtually identical to last year's record level despite moderating pricing and the sale of our Canadian business, demonstrating the durability of our underlying underwriting earnings power.

儘管我們在 2026 年初出售了加拿大業務而不再納入，本季淨簽單保費仍略有成長，同時在報表基礎與基礎（underlying）基礎上都繳出優異的綜合比率。基礎綜合比率為 84.1%，連續第九季低於 86%。強勁的已賺保費與優異的基礎綜合比率相結合，使稅後基礎核保利益達 14 億美元，延續我們歷史性強勁的基礎核保表現。今年截至目前的稅後基礎核保利益為 39 億美元，幾乎與去年創紀錄水準相同；即便定價趨於溫和且出售加拿大業務，仍展現我們基礎核保獲利能力的韌性。

The expense ratio for the third quarter was 28.9%, bringing the year-to-date expense ratio to 29%. Regarding the expense ratio outlook, the continued strength of our consolidated underwriting performance I just described, results in variable expenses like profit sharing and contingent commissions coming in higher than planned. That's a trade we're very willing to make, and it results in an uptick for our expected full year expense ratio, which we now expect to come in a little below 29% for 2026 and about the same for 2027. Catastrophe losses in the quarter were $538 million pretax, consisting mainly of tornado hail events in the Central U.S.

第三季費用率為 28.9%，使今年截至目前的費用率達到 29%。就費用率展望而言，我剛才所描述的合併核保表現持續強勁，導致像利潤分享與或有佣金等變動費用高於原先規劃。這樣的取捨我們非常願意接受，也使我們對全年費用率的預期略為上調；目前我們預期 2026 年全年費用率將略低於 29%，而 2027 年大致相同。本季巨災損失稅前為 5.38 億美元，主要來自美國中部的龍捲風與冰雹事件。

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $234 million pretax with favorability in all 3 segments. In Business Insurance, the annual asbestos review resulted in a charge of $295 million. Excluding asbestos, Business Insurance had net favorable PYD of $336 million with favorability in every line. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD was $95 million pretax with favorability in Fidelity and Surety as well as management liability. Personal Insurance had net favorable PYD of $98 million pretax with favorability in both home and auto.

接著談前期年度準備金發展。我們稅前淨有利發展合計 2.34 億美元，三個事業部門皆呈現有利。在商業保險方面，年度石綿審查帶來 2.95 億美元的費用。扣除石綿因素後，商業保險的前期年度準備金發展（PYD）稅前淨有利為 3.36 億美元，且各險種皆呈現有利。在保證與專業險方面，稅前淨有利 PYD 為 9,500 萬美元，其中忠誠保險與保證保險以及管理責任險均呈現有利。個人保險方面，稅前淨有利 PYD 為 9,800 萬美元，住宅與汽車保險皆呈現有利。

Turning to investment income. For the first time ever, after-tax net investment income surpassed $900 million for the quarter, up 7% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again the driver of the increase reflecting both the benefit of higher invested assets and higher average yields. Through the first 3 quarters of 2026, we've grown our investment portfolio by approximately $6 billion even after having returned a record level of capital to investors through dividends and share repurchases.

接著談投資收益。本季稅後淨投資收益史上首次突破 9 億美元，較去年同期成長 7%。固定到期證券的淨投資收益（NII）再次成為成長主因，反映出投資資產增加與平均殖利率提高的雙重效益。在 2026 年前三季，即使我們透過股利與庫藏股回購向投資人返還創紀錄水準的資本，我們的投資組合仍增加約 60 億美元。

Our outlook for fixed income NII in the fourth quarter, including earnings from short-term securities, is up slightly from the outlook we provided a quarter ago, now expecting approximately $875 million after tax in Q4, bringing the full year 2026 total to $3.3 billion. For 2027, we expect more than $3.6 billion with quarterly figures starting at around $875 million in Q1 and growing to around $965 million in Q4. New money rates on purchases during the third quarter were roughly 120 basis points above the yield embedded in the portfolio. The significant increase in interest rates during the quarter resulted in an increase in our net unrealized investment loss from $2 billion after tax at June 30 to $6.4 billion after tax at September 30. This is a good time to remind you that the unrealized loss in our investment portfolio is interest rate driven, not credit quality driven.

我們對第四季固定收益 NII（包含短期證券收益）的展望，較我們一季前提供的預估略為上調；目前預期第四季稅後約 8.75 億美元，使 2026 年全年合計達 33 億美元。對 2027 年，我們預期將超過 36 億美元；各季金額將從第一季約 8.75 億美元起步，至第四季成長至約 9.65 億美元。第三季新投入資金的購買利率約比投資組合內含殖利率高出 120 個基點。本季利率大幅上升，使我們的淨未實現投資損失由 6 月 30 日稅後 20 億美元，增加至 9 月 30 日稅後 64 億美元。此時也適合提醒各位：我們投資組合的未實現損失是由利率變動所驅動，而非信用品質惡化所致。

Remember, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity. The quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high and the changes in unrealized gains and losses have little or no impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements. And of course, the same rise in rates that increased the unrealized loss is a tailwind for future results as we reinvested higher yields, it supports higher continued growth in net investment income.

請記住，未實現投資損益的變動不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們通常會將固定收益投資持有至到期。我們固定收益投資組合的品質仍然非常高，而未實現損益的變動對我們的現金流、法定盈餘或監理資本要求幾乎沒有或完全沒有影響。當然，同樣推升未實現損失的利率上升，也將成為未來業績的順風；因為我們能以更高殖利率再投資，進而支持淨投資收益持續更高的成長。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $172.47 at quarter end, up 9% from year-end and up 15% from a year ago. Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $3.9 billion were again very strong and brought the year-to-date operating cash flow figure to $8 billion. Also of note for Q3, in July, we issued $750 million of 5-year debt at an attractive rate of 4.95% as part of our ordinary capital management, maintaining a debt-to-capital ratio in our target range as we continue to grow the business. Sticking with the theme of capital management, we returned $1.8 billion of capital to our shareholders in the quarter with share repurchases of $1.5 billion and dividends of $261 million.

每股調整後帳面價值（排除淨未實現投資損益）在季末為 172.47 美元，較年末上升 9%，較一年前上升 15%。接著談資本管理。本季營運現金流為 39 億美元，再次表現強勁，使今年截至目前的營運現金流達到 80 億美元。另外值得一提的是，第三季中我們於 7 月發行 7.5 億美元、5 年期債務，利率具吸引力為 4.95%；這是我們例行資本管理的一部分，在持續擴張業務的同時，將負債對資本比率維持在目標區間。延續資本管理主題，本季我們向股東返還 18 億美元資本，其中包含 15 億美元的股票回購與 2.61 億美元的股利。

Before I wrap up, let me add one comment about the fourth quarter for your modeling purposes. Effective October 1, we increased the percentage ceded to our cyber reinsurance quota share. That will reduce net written premiums by about $165 million in Q4 and by about $230 million for full year 2027, primarily in the Bond & Specialty segment. We expect the impact on bottom line earnings to be de minimis in both years.

在我結束之前，為了便於各位建模，我再補充一點關於第四季的說明。自10月1日起，我們提高了分出至網路再保險比例分保（quota share）的比例。這將使第四季的淨簽單保費減少約1.65億美元，並使2027年全年淨簽單保費減少約2.30億美元，主要發生在保證與專業（Bond & Specialty）事業部。我們預期對兩個年度的最終盈餘影響皆可忽略不計（de minimis）。

Recapping our results, Q3 was another quarter of excellent underwriting profitability on both an underlying and as-reported basis and another quarter of rising net investment income. These strong fundamentals delivered core return on equity of 22.1% for the quarter and 24.1% on a trailing 12-month basis, and we continue to be very well positioned to deliver strong results in the future.

回顧我們的業績，第三季在基礎（underlying）與報表（as-reported）口徑下，承保獲利能力再度表現優異，同時淨投資收益也再度上升。這些強勁的基本面使本季核心股東權益報酬率（core ROE）達22.1%，過去12個月滾動基礎為24.1%；我們仍處於非常有利的位置，可在未來持續交出強勁成果。

And now, for a discussion of results in Business Insurance, I'll turn the call over to Greg.

接下來，針對商業保險（Business Insurance）的業績討論，我把電話交給Greg。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another very strong quarter, delivering record third quarter segment income of $1.04 billion and continued solid top line growth. This quarter's results reflect the continued benefit of strong underwriting results, driven by higher earned premiums and a combined ratio that improved 2 points to a terrific 90.9%. We're particularly pleased with our underlying combined ratio, which remains strong at 88.9%. Beyond our execution in the marketplace, we're encouraged with the contributions we're seeing from our ongoing strategic investments.

謝謝，Dan。商業保險本季再度表現非常強勁，第三季事業部收益創下紀錄，達10.4億美元，且營收端持續穩健成長。本季結果反映承保成果持續受惠於強勁表現，主要由已賺保費增加所帶動，且綜合率改善2個百分點至出色的90.9%。我們尤其對基礎綜合率感到滿意，仍維持在強勁的88.9%。除了我們在市場上的執行力之外，我們也對持續進行的策略性投資所帶來的貢獻感到鼓舞。

For example, our ongoing advancement of analytical capabilities, including the utilization of sophisticated predictive models continues to enhance our risk selection and pricing segmentation. The expanded use of external data sources such as aerial imagery in combination with our proprietary historical claim data, further equips our frontline underwriters with the insights they need to make better decisions at the point of sale.

例如，我們持續推進分析能力的提升，包括運用先進的預測模型，持續強化風險篩選與定價分層。擴大使用外部資料來源（例如航拍影像），並結合我們自有的歷史理賠資料，進一步讓第一線核保人員在銷售端點具備所需洞見，以做出更佳決策。

Within property, analytics have supported our improvements in insured to value and deductible adequacy, which has contributed to a stronger and well-positioned book. We believe these and other strategic investments will be important contributors to our continued success and long-term profitable growth.

在財產險方面，分析工具支持我們改善保額相對價值（insured to value）與自負額適足性，進而促成更強健且定位更佳的保單組合。我們相信，這些及其他策略性投資將是我們持續成功與長期獲利成長的重要推動力。

Turning to the top line, our net written premium reached a third quarter record at $5.9 billion. Domestic net written premiums grew 4%. Excluding the property line, domestic net written premiums grew 6%. Net written premiums in national property continued to decline, we remain focused on writing business only where pricing terms align with our view of the risk and our return objectives.

回到營收端，我們的淨簽單保費在第三季達到59億美元，創下第三季新高。國內淨簽單保費成長4%。若排除財產險線別，國內淨簽單保費成長6%。全國性財產險的淨簽單保費仍持續下滑；我們仍專注於僅在定價條件與我們對風險的看法及報酬目標一致時才承作業務。

Turning to production across the segment. Renewal premium change was 4.1%. Excluding the property line, RPC was 7% and positive in all lines. Retention remained excellent at 86%, a reflection of strong returns and our continued focus on retaining our high-quality book of business. New business was strong at $699 million, up 4% from the prior year.

接著看事業部整體的產能表現。續保保費變動（Renewal premium change）為4.1%。若排除財產險線別，續保保費變動為7%，且各線別皆為正成長。續保率維持在優異的86%，反映出良好的回報以及我們持續聚焦於留住高品質業務組合。新業務表現強勁，達6.99億美元，較去年同期成長4%。

We're pleased with these production results in our fields continued execution of our proven segmentation strategies, aligning price, terms and conditions with environmental trends for each life. As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change was strong at 7.8%, while retention was steady at 81%. The new business of $139 million was up 3% over the prior year. These results reflect the industry-leading segmentation in our product offerings including BOP 2.0 and TCAP, our commercial auto product as well as the digital experience we deliver to our distribution partners.

我們對這些產能成果感到滿意，這反映出我們外勤團隊持續落實已驗證的分層策略，針對各線別將價格、條款與條件與環境趨勢相匹配。就各個業務而言，在Select業務中，續保保費變動強勁達7.8%，續保率則穩定在81%。新業務為1.39億美元，較去年同期成長3%。這些成果反映出我們在產品供給上的業界領先分層能力，包括BOP 2.0與TCAP、我們的商用車險產品，以及我們提供給通路合作夥伴的數位化體驗。

In middle market, renewal premium change was 5.4% while retention remained exceptional at 89%. New business of $431 million was up 10% over the prior year. Our continued profitable growth is supported by predictive models that guide our underwriters' granular execution at every step from prospecting and quoting new business through renewals, once again another terrific quarter for Business Insurance. We're energized by both the strength of our current execution and the additional capabilities we continue to build capabilities that we believe will drive our continued success through the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

在中型市場（middle market），續保保費變動為5.4%，續保率仍維持在卓越的89%。新業務為4.31億美元，較去年同期成長10%。我們持續的獲利成長，受惠於預測模型的支持，該模型引導核保人員在從開發潛在客戶、報價新業務到續保的每一步都能更細緻地執行；商業保險再次交出非常出色的一季。我們對目前執行力的強勁表現以及我們持續打造的新增能力都感到振奮；我們相信這些能力將推動我們在2026年剩餘期間及更長遠未來持續成功。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

接下來，我把電話交給Jeff。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report that Bond & Specialty posted an outstanding quarter on both the top and bottom lines. We generated record segment income of $309 million, driven by strong earned premium and a terrific combined ratio of 77.3%.

謝謝你，Greg，各位早安。我們很高興報告，保證與專業（Bond & Specialty）在營收端與獲利端都繳出亮眼的一季。在強勁的已賺保費與出色的77.3%綜合率帶動下，我們創下事業部收益紀錄，達3.09億美元。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by a very strong 12% in the quarter to $1.2 billion. In our high-quality domestic management liability business, we drove retention to a very strong 89% while improving real premium change by nearly 1 point sequentially. We are very pleased that we also increased new business by 18% from the prior year quarter. These results reflect terrific execution by our outstanding field organization, leveraging our strategic investments and enhanced pricing segmentation tools and sales effectiveness capabilities.

就營收端而言，本季淨簽單保費大幅成長12%至12億美元。在我們高品質的國內管理責任險業務中，我們將續保率提升至非常強勁的89%，同時實質保費變動（real premium change）較前一季改善近1個百分點。我們也非常高興，新業務較去年同期增加18%。這些成果反映出我們優秀的外勤組織展現出色的執行力，並善用我們的策略性投資、強化後的定價分層工具與銷售效能能力。

Turning to our market-leading surety business, we posted excellent net written premium growth of 21% from the prior year quarter, continuing the recent trend of strong production across our high credit quality portfolio. Our growth this year is primarily attributable to our portfolio of premier contractors that are well positioned to deliver on large public and private infrastructure projects that have driven construction spending as well as meaningful contributions from new account relationships as more customers choose a carrier with exceptional financial strength, market-leading value-added services and an unparalleled team. So bonded Specialty Insurance delivered terrific profitability and excellent growth in the quarter while continuing to make strategic investments to further extend our competitive advantages.

再看我們市場領先的保證（surety）業務，本季淨簽單保費較去年同期成長21%，延續近期在高信用品質投資組合中產能強勁的趨勢。我們今年的成長主要來自我們的頂尖承包商客群組合；這些客戶具備良好條件，可承接帶動建設支出的重大公私部門基礎建設專案；同時，隨著更多客戶選擇具備卓越財務實力、市場領先的加值服務與無可匹敵團隊的保險公司，我們也從新客戶關係中獲得顯著貢獻。因此，Bond & Specialty本季在持續進行策略性投資以進一步擴大競爭優勢的同時，也交出極佳的獲利能力與優異的成長。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

接下來，我把電話交給Michael。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to share that Personal Insurance delivered third quarter segment income of $706 million. Strong underlying income and favorable prior year reserve development, both contributed to this excellent bottom line result. The combined ratio of 83.5% was a terrific result in the quarter. Catastrophe losses were favorable to our plan and continue to benefit from the actions that we've taken to reduce volatility across our portfolio.

謝謝你，Jeff，各位早安。我很高興分享，個人保險（Personal Insurance）第三季事業部收益達7.06億美元。強勁的基礎收益以及有利的前期年度準備金發展（prior year reserve development）共同促成了這項優異的獲利成果。本季綜合率83.5%表現非常出色。巨災損失優於我們的計畫，並持續受惠於我們為降低整體投資組合波動性所採取的行動。

The underlying combined ratio of 76.7% improved by 1 point compared to the prior year and continues to demonstrate strong profitability in both automobile and homeowners and other. Net written premiums for the segment were $4.4 billion in the third quarter as pricing continued to moderate, reflecting strong profitability, while retention remains solid. New business premium and homeowners was higher year-over-year as we thoughtfully deployed property capacity in support of our efforts to generate profitable growth.

基礎綜合率為76.7%，較去年同期改善1個百分點，並持續展現汽車險與住宅險及其他業務的強勁獲利能力。本事業部第三季淨簽單保費為44億美元；隨著定價持續趨於溫和、反映強勁獲利能力，同時續保率仍維持穩健。新業務保費以及住宅險保費年增，因我們審慎配置財產險承保能力，以支持我們追求獲利成長的努力。

Third quarter homeowners net written premiums also benefited from our decision not to renew the PI property XOL treaty, which would have taken effect July 1. As Dan mentioned last quarter, it was more cost effective to obtain the coverage we sought through the lowering of the attachment point on the corporate catastrophe XOL treaty. In auto, the third quarter combined ratio of 87.1% reflects a strong underlying combined ratio and favorable net prior year development. The underlying combined ratio was 87.3%, a 1 point improvement compared to the prior year. This strong result was driven by continued favorable loss experience across coverages.

第三季住宅險淨簽單保費亦受惠於我們決定不續保個人保險（PI）財產超額損失（XOL）合約；該合約原本將於7月1日生效。如Dan在上季所提，透過降低公司層級巨災超額損失（XOL）合約的起賠點（attachment point）來取得我們所需的保障，成本效益更佳。在汽車險方面，第三季綜合率87.1%反映強勁的基礎綜合率以及有利的淨前期年度發展。基礎綜合率為87.3%，較去年同期改善1個百分點。這項強勁成果主要由各項保障範圍持續有利的損失經驗所帶動。

This quarter's results included about a 1.5 point benefit related to the re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026, it's important to remember that the fourth quarter auto underlying loss ratio has historically been about 5 to 6 points above the average for the first 3 quarters because of winter weather and holiday driving. In Homeowners and Other, the third quarter combined ratio was a very strong 80.5% and the underlying combined ratio of 68% was outstanding and comparable to the prior year.

本季業績包含約 1.5 個百分點的利多，與本年度對前幾季結果的重新估計有關。展望 2026 年第四季，重要的是要記住，歷史上第四季汽車險的基礎損失率通常比前三季平均高出約 5 到 6 個百分點，原因在於冬季天候與假期駕駛。在住宅險及其他業務方面，第三季綜合率表現非常強勁，為 80.5%；基礎綜合率為 68%，表現卓越，且與去年同期相當。

Turning to production, in auto, retention was 81%, while renewal premium change was slightly negative as we continue to incorporate sustained levels of profitability into our pricing. We remain pleased with the high-quality profile of the new business we're writing as we maintain our disciplined approach to managing base rate levels and further enhancing our sophisticated segmentation.

談到承保產出，在汽車險方面，續保率為 81%，而續保保費變動略為負值，因為我們持續將可持續的獲利水準納入定價。在維持嚴謹的基礎費率管理並進一步強化我們精密的分群策略之際，我們仍對所承作的新業務之高品質輪廓感到滿意。

In homeowners and other, retention of 85% remained strong, while renewal premium change continued to moderate, reflecting strong profitability and replacement costs that are generally aligned with insured values. We were pleased that for the third consecutive quarter, new business premium was higher year over year, driven by our intentional and disciplined efforts to deploy property capacity. We continue to invest in strategic capabilities that will deliver sustainable profitable growth.

在住宅險及其他業務方面，85% 的續保率仍然強勁，而續保保費變動持續趨於溫和，反映出強勁的獲利能力，以及重置成本大致與承保價值一致。我們很高興看到連續第三個季度，新業務保費年增，主要由我們有意且自律地投放財產險承保容量所帶動。我們持續投資於策略性能力，以帶來可持續的獲利成長。

At the same time, we're executing complementary marketplace actions that include expanding distribution by appointing new agents and actively pursuing book consolidation opportunities. These deliberate efforts, combined with our strong agent relationships, portfolio solutions for customers and industry-leading claim capabilities position us to be the undeniable choice for consumers and an indispensable partner for our agents. To sum up, this was another great quarter for Personal Insurance on the bottom line, and we continue to focus on taking a measured, thoughtful approach to profitably growing our business over time.

同時，我們也在執行互補的市場行動，包括透過委任新代理人擴大通路，並積極尋求保單簿整併機會。這些審慎的努力，加上我們與代理人的穩固關係、為客戶提供的組合式解決方案，以及業界領先的理賠能力，使我們成為消費者無可爭議的首選，並成為代理人不可或缺的合作夥伴。總結來說，個人保險在損益表面向又交出一個非常出色的季度，我們將持續專注於以審慎、周延的方式，隨時間推進實現獲利性成長。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在，我把電話交回給 Abbe。

Thanks, Michael. We are ready to open up for Q&A.

謝謝，Michael。我們準備開始 Q&A。

(Operator Instructions) Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

(接線員指示) Paul Newsome，Piper Sandler。請開始。

We can come back to Paul, maybe we'll take the next caller.

我們可以稍後再回到 Paul，或許先接下一位來電者。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

Alan, you've discussed and Dan as well, you guys have discussed the durability of the $5.5 billion of underlying underwriting income. I didn't hear you guys say that again explicitly. And so it sounds like you guys are definitely on pace for that this year. But I'm wondering how you're thinking about that into next year, just given the moving pieces with the market cycle and where we are?

Alan，你以及 Dan 也都談到過 55 億美元基礎承保收益的持久性。我沒有聽到你們再次明確重申這一點。因此聽起來你們今年肯定有望達成。但我想了解的是，考量市場循環的變動因素以及我們目前所處的位置，你們如何看待明年的情況？

David, thanks for the question. We would absolutely reiterate the durability of underlying underwriting income. And just to give you a little color behind that. I mean putting in some historical context, we are a larger, more profitable company than we've been historically, strong competitive advantages with a strong value proposition demonstrated success with innovation and investing. We think AI gives us tremendous opportunity.

David，謝謝你的問題。我們絕對會再次強調基礎承保收益的持久性。我補充一些背景說明。從歷史脈絡來看，我們如今是一家規模更大、獲利能力更強的公司；我們具備強勁的競爭優勢與明確的價值主張，也已證明在創新與投資方面的成功。我們認為 AI 為我們帶來巨大的機會。

And as I've been saying, I think I read for the first time in my 2022 annual letter, we think scale is going to be increasingly important. So we think all of that will continue to give us the ability to out select and out price. And so that gives us great confidence in the durability of the underlying underwriting impact.

而且如我一直所說，我想我第一次在 2022 年的年度致股東信中提到，我們認為規模將變得愈來愈重要。因此，我們認為這些因素都將持續賦予我們更好的風險選擇能力與更佳的定價能力。因此，這讓我們對基礎承保影響的持久性非常有信心。

David, it's Dan. The only thing I'd add to that is you shouldn't mean that doesn't mean it's not going to move a little bit one way or the other. The other comment that Alan has made relative to that metric is we don't know if 2027 is going to be a little higher than that, a little lower than that or flat. But the ZIP code that we're in now is just a completely different ZIP code than we used to be in, and we don't see any reason that that's likely to change.

David，我是 Dan。我唯一想補充的是，你不應該——這並不代表它不會在某個方向上有些微波動。Alan 針對這個指標的另一個評論是，我們不知道 2027 年會比這個水準略高、略低，或是持平。但我們現在所處的「郵遞區號」已經和過去完全不同，而我們看不出有任何理由會使這種情況改變。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just maybe on the favorable PYD in Business Insurance, so it sounds like that was across all lines. So I'm assuming that, that included general liability. Could you just confirm that, maybe talk about which accident years you're seeing that? And maybe just how you guys are thinking about the level of IBNR that you guys have been putting up over the last few years?

了解。這很有幫助。另外想請教商業保險中有利的 PYD（前期年度發展），聽起來是涵蓋所有險種。所以我推測其中也包含一般責任險。你們能否確認一下，並談談主要出現在哪些事故年度？以及你們如何看待過去幾年所提列的 IBNR 水準？

Yes, David. So we feel great about where the balance sheet is, as we've said now for a couple of years. It was all lines across the board. So we saw favorability in commercial auto, commercial property, CMP, general liability, workers' comp, none of them were particularly outsized, although in aggregate, a number as big as we talked about on the call, is a very good result.

是的，David。如同我們過去幾年所說，我們對資產負債表目前的狀況感到非常滿意。確實是所有險種全面都有。因此我們在商用車險、商業財產險、CMP（商業綜合保單）、一般責任險、勞工補償險都看到有利發展；沒有任何一項特別突出，但合計起來能達到我們在電話會議中提到的那麼大的數字，是非常好的結果。

So, I would say we continue to be thoughtful about the reserves that we carry on the book, respectful of the long-term loss trends that should come out of the liability or the comp lines. And as things emerge somewhat favorably to what we had provided for in our prior picks, we're getting PYD. But yes, across the board, including GL.

所以我會說，我們仍然審慎思考在保單簿上所持有的準備金，並尊重責任險或勞工補償險等長尾險種可能呈現的長期損失趨勢。當實際發展略優於我們先前估計所提列的水準時，就會產生 PYD。但沒錯，是全面性的，包括 GL（一般責任險）。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

Gregory Peters，Raymond James。

Good morning, everyone. So, I guess kind of building on the last question, but I'd like to see if you could give us some comments on your view of loss cost trend inside business insurance. And I guess I'm looking at it because I'm watching the renewal rate change premium slide down? And also, I was intrigued by your comments, Alan, about the commercial auto liability and the other casualty claims and the pressure you continue to see there. And I just kind of brought to my mind, are you foreshadowing another negative step change in sort of how the loss cost trend is moving in those lines?

各位早安。我想延續上一個問題，但希望你們能評論一下你們對商業保險內部損失成本趨勢的看法。我之所以這麼問，是因為我看到續保費率變動帶動的保費增幅在下滑。另外，Alan，你提到商用車責任險以及其他意外險理賠，仍持續面臨壓力，這也引起我的注意。因此我在想，你是否在暗示這些險種的損失成本趨勢可能會出現另一波負向的階梯式變化？

No. Quite the contrary, actually. There's -- just looking at the loss environment broadly, I would say it's as we've expected. No surprises at all, whether we're talking about social inflation or anything else. And so no surprises at all in terms of the loss environment.

不，事實上恰恰相反。若從整體損失環境來看，我會說一切都如我們所預期。完全沒有任何意外，不論是社會通膨或其他因素。因此就損失環境而言，沒有任何驚喜。

Okay. I guess then a pivot this year -- this quarter's new development was the rollout of us. And obviously, there's other tech initiatives that are spooking the market with their potential to disrupt distribution. Maybe it's mostly focused in personal lines, but there is some crossover into the small and middle market commercial area, too. So maybe you could just step back and provide us some perspective on your value of your current agency distribution model? And maybe also give some nuggets on how you are working with these new initiatives to help get to your objectives.

好的。那我換個角度問——今年、這一季的新進展是我們推出了 us。而且顯然，市場上還有其他科技倡議，因其可能顛覆通路而讓市場感到不安。也許主要聚焦在個人險，但也有部分延伸到小型與中型商業市場。所以你們能否退一步，提供一些你們對現行代理通路模式價值的看法？也請分享一些重點，說明你們如何運用這些新倡議來協助達成目標。

Thanks for the question, Greg, Mike, you want to take that?

謝謝你的問題，Greg。Mike，你要回答嗎？

Sure. I'll take it, Greg, because to your point, Muse in particular, at least today is mostly focused in the personal insurance space, certainly Greg's team and mine have been collaborating and he can chime in as well. The first thing I would say just broadly about Muse and AI assistance, it's early days, right? I mean the actual volume of observable activity is pretty minor. And I think there are a lot of things that could potentially impede the pace and scope of change there.

當然。我來回答，Greg。正如你所說，Muse 尤其是至少在今天，主要聚焦在個人保險領域；當然，Greg 的團隊和我的團隊一直在合作，他也可以補充。我首先想就 Muse 與 AI 助理做一個更宏觀的說明：目前仍在非常早期的階段。也就是說，可觀察到的實際活動量相當有限。而且我認為有很多因素可能會阻礙其變革的速度與範圍。

We've got to pay attention to consumer adoption. We've got to work through technology and data dynamics. There's a variety of legal and regulatory considerations as we deal with these developments and work in this space.

我們必須關注消費者的採用情況。我們必須釐清並處理技術與數據的動態變化。在面對這些發展並在此領域運作時，還有各式各樣的法律與監管考量。

And just to put a point on it, if and when you're engaging with an AI assistant, you got to confirm a number of things, right? First and foremost, is that AI assistant actually authorized by the consumer that's doing the shopping. Secondly, is the consumer affirming and confirming that the information provided is accurate. And third and probably most importantly, does the customer actually understand what they're buying. And those things aren't sort of particularly transparent and clear as you engage digitally in this space. And those considerations grow in importance with the size and the complexity of the asset or the risk that you're insuring.

再把話說得更明確一點，當你在使用 AI 助理時，你必須確認幾件事，對吧？首先也是最重要的，該 AI 助理是否確實獲得正在購物的消費者授權。第二，消費者是否在聲明並確認所提供的資訊是正確的。第三，而且可能最重要的是，客戶是否真的理解自己買的是什麼。而當你在這個領域以數位方式互動時，這些事情並不特別透明或清楚。而且，隨著你所投保的資產規模與複雜度，或風險的大小與複雜度提高，這些考量的重要性也會隨之增加。

So we're engaged in exploring the opportunities and the threats here. We're going to continue to test and learn and make sure that we're prepared to respond and we've been building digital capabilities across the organization for a really long time. On the commercial side, we've got Simply Business and Zen. In Personal Insurance, we've got Insurer Match and D2C. And I think we'll be prepared for wherever this goes.

因此，我們正投入探索這裡的機會與威脅。我們會持續測試與學習，確保我們已準備好回應；而且我們在整個組織內建構數位能力已經很長一段時間了。在商業端，我們有 Simply Business 和 Zen。在個人保險方面，我們有 Insurer Match 和 D2C。

Yes, Greg, I would just add to that, that if you look at a continuum of risk from the most complex to the least complex, the stuff that trades digitally today, and I do think it's important to remember that customers can trade digitally today, but the things that actually trade digitally are way over at the simplest end. It's renters, it's (inaudible), it's that sort of stuff, you get mildly more complicated. People might use the technology to shop and do some price discovery, but very often, they opt out to talk to a person. And so unlike a lot of other commerce where you can imagine digital trading being more popular in a complicated domain like insurance. So far, it hasn't been the case.

是的，Greg，我想補充的是，如果你把風險從最複雜到最不複雜看成一個連續光譜，今天真正以數位方式成交的業務，我確實認為要記得客戶今天是可以數位交易的，但實際上能以數位方式成交的東西都在最簡單的那一端。像是租屋險、（聽不清楚）、這類東西；稍微再複雜一點。人們可能會用科技來比價、做一些價格探索，但很多時候他們會選擇退出，改去跟真人交談。因此，不像許多其他商業領域，你可以想像在像保險這種複雜領域裡，數位交易會更普及。到目前為止，情況並非如此。

But to Michael's point, going back 20 years talking about D2C we contemplated the world would get more digital. And that's -- we didn't invest in D2C because we thought we were going to be a leader in D2C. We invested in D2C 20 years ago because we wanted to make sure we have the capabilities of a digital company.

但回到 Michael 的觀點，20 年前談 D2C 時，我們就預想世界會變得更數位化。而且——我們投資 D2C 並不是因為我們認為自己會成為 D2C 的領導者。我們 20 年前投資 D2C，是因為我們想確保自己具備一家數位公司的能力。

We wanted -- certainly, we want to understand distribution, but we also wanted to understand how to engage with our distribution partners, how to service our customers. And then more recently, when we acquired Simply Business and (inaudible), that was also with the thought that the world was going to be more digital. So you can get a sense of our view that we think this is going to be sort of a measured adoption to the extent there is adoption. But wherever it goes, we are very prepared for.

我們當然想了解通路，但我們也想了解如何與通路夥伴互動、如何服務客戶。而在更近期，當我們收購 Simply Business 和（聽不清楚）時，也同樣是基於世界將更數位化的想法。所以你可以感受到我們的看法：我們認為即便有採用，採用也會是相對循序漸進的。但無論它走向何方，我們都已經做好充分準備。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

I want to go back to David's reserve development question. It sounds like you built conservative loss picks. So the loss experience might be more favorable to that. I'm just curious how much time needs to pass to assess that. I appreciate your confirmation.

我想回到 David 關於準備金發展（reserve development）問題。聽起來你們建立了較為保守的損失估計（loss picks）。因此實際損失經驗可能會比那更有利。我只是好奇，需要經過多少時間才能評估這點。感謝你們的確認。

The releases came from GL and commercial auto. But I think it's important to have a better understanding of those accident years. I noticed in the 10-Q, you said that it was more recent year.

釋出（release）來自 GL 和商業車險。但我認為更重要的是要更好地理解那些事故年度（accident years）。我注意到在 10-Q 裡，你們說那是較近期的年度。

Yes. Tracy, it's Dan. So I don't know that I would use the word conservative when we came up with our loss picks. I think what we've tried to say is we're making certain that we're leaving a provision for the level of uncertainty that comes out of those long tail lines and more recent changes in development patterns and attorney rep rates and things like that.

是的。Tracy，我是 Dan。所以我不確定我會用「保守」這個詞來形容我們提出損失估計時的做法。我想我們試著表達的是：我們要確保針對那些長尾險種，以及近期在發展型態、律師代理率等方面的變化所帶來的不確定性水準，保留相應的準備金提列（provision）。

Look, we had a number of years contribute to the favorability in PYD this year. I think if you just look at the gravity of where most of the reserves and particularly IBNR is it is naturally going to be in the most recent accident year. So I think not a big surprise there. You shouldn't read that as saying that we've changed our view in terms of whether there still needs to be consideration for and respect for the potential uncertainty in those lines and the health of the IBNR that we continue to maintain. But as quarter after quarter goes by, and we've seen things come in a little bit better.

你看，今年 PYD 的有利因素是由多個年度共同貢獻的。我認為如果你只看準備金的集中程度，尤其是 IBNR 所在的位置，它自然會落在最近的事故年度。所以我覺得這並不太令人意外。你不應把這解讀為我們改變了看法——也就是在那些險種上，仍需要考量並尊重潛在不確定性，以及我們持續維持的 IBNR 的健全性。但隨著一季又一季過去，我們看到實際結果略為更好一些。

We we felt it was appropriate to take some reaction here. We certainly have not run to the other side of the boat.

我們覺得在這裡採取一些反應是合適的。我們當然沒有一下子就跑到船的另一邊去。

Okay. Got it. So select renewal premium change improved in the second quarter, but you gave that improvement back in the third quarter, and the slowdown was driven mostly by rather than exposure. So I'm just curious, which quarter was the anomaly and how we should be thinking about the underlying trend from here?

好的，了解。所以，第二季的選擇性續保保費變動（select renewal premium change）有所改善，但第三季你們又把那個改善吐回去了，而放緩主要是由（聽不清楚）而不是由曝險（exposure）所驅動。所以我想問，哪一季是異常值？以及從這裡開始我們應該如何看待基本趨勢？

Tracy, this is Greg. Yes, I did share with you last quarter that depending on what filings state-by-state get approved quarter-to-quarter, you can have some variation. And of course, you have separate accounts that are coming up for renewals in each quarter. So I wouldn't say one quarter was an aberration more than the other. Every day, we look at that business in terms of what the returns are in that business and what the pricing and new business needs to be, and that's how we execute.

Tracy，我是 Greg。是的，我上季確實跟你分享過，依各州申報（filings）逐季核准的情況不同，你可能會看到一些波動。當然，每一季也會有不同的獨立帳戶（separate accounts）到期續保。所以我不會說某一季比另一季更像是異常。我們每天都會從該業務的報酬、定價以及新業務需要如何設定來檢視，並據此執行。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

Katie Sakys，Autonomous Research。

A quick one for me, just kind of wanted to get your thoughts here on the Business Insurance segment. Premium growth results, I think, pro forma ex property quite a strong result there this quarter. If I think about where RPC has trended this year and might continue to trend going forward as well as Greg's prepared remarks on underwriting discipline. How are you guys thinking about growth momentum as you start looking at 2027 in BI.

我這邊一個簡短問題，想請教你們對商業保險（Business Insurance）部門的看法。本季保費成長的結果，我認為若以備考口徑（pro forma）且排除財產險（ex property）來看，是相當強勁的表現。如果我思考今年 RPC 的走勢，以及未來可能持續的走勢，再加上 Greg 在事先準備的談話中提到的核保紀律。當你們開始展望 BI 到 2027 年時，你們如何看待成長動能？

I don't think we're going to give outlook on the top line other than to say we feel great about the execution and the growth we put on the books this quarter, and we feel like we've got all the capabilities and value proposition to continue to be successful executing in the market. So we're -- we feel great about next year, and we're optimistic, but we're going to stop short of indicating a trend or giving you a number.

我們不打算就營收端（top line）提供展望；我們只能說，我們對本季的執行與入帳的成長感到非常滿意，也覺得我們具備所有能力與價值主張，能在市場上持續成功執行。所以我們——我們對明年感覺很好，也很樂觀，但我們不會進一步指出趨勢或給你一個數字。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

Josh Shanker，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

Yes. The margins are fantastic, and I'm sure that you'd like to get every piece of business that fits your underwriting appetite, but the growth across a lot of lines is flattish or not moving very much. As you innovate with all these opportunities in technology and artificial intelligence, and you're able to save money, to what extent is the goal to pass those savings on to the customers to make your value proposition more attractive than your competitors in terms of price actions? Do you see an opportunity for you to outgrow your competitors by cutting costs with no impact on your margins?

是的，利潤率非常出色，我也確信你們希望拿下每一筆符合你們核保偏好（underwriting appetite）的業務，但許多險種的成長看起來持平或變化不大。當你們在科技與人工智慧的各種機會上創新，並能節省成本時，在多大程度上，你們的目標是把這些節省回饋給客戶，透過價格行動讓你們的價值主張在價格面比競爭對手更具吸引力？你們是否看到一個機會：在不影響利潤率的情況下，透過降成本來讓你們的成長超越競爭對手？

Yes, Josh, I do think that there will be an opportunity for us to do that. We know that we are generating operating leverage. And just to -- just to give you a little bit of color into that. So there are some things that we know and we have a lot of confidence in. So let me give you a couple of examples.

是的，Josh，我確實認為我們會有機會做到這一點。我們知道我們正在產生營運槓桿。我稍微——稍微補充一些背景說明。有些事情我們很清楚，而且我們非常有信心。我給你舉幾個例子。

Our cost per unit of software development much improved. Our labor costs associated with first notice of loss down, our cost to service a policy has come down. There are just some areas where we know, and that goes into operating leverage. There are other areas where attribution is a little more difficult. So for example, we're very confident we're giving our underwriters better insights.

我們每單位軟體開發成本已大幅改善。與出險首次通知（FNOL）相關的人力成本下降，我們服務一張保單的成本也降低了。有一些領域我們很清楚，而這些都反映在營運槓桿上。也有其他領域，歸因就比較困難。例如，我們非常有信心，我們正在為核保人提供更好的洞察。

And you can look at the excellent underwriting result, but it's hard to draw a very straight line from the improved insights for giving the underwriters and exactly that outcome. So it's a little bit harder to see that. But taking a step back, the combination of the ways that we can deploy the operating leverage and the benefits that we can't quantify are embedded in the results that we have. And if we decide that we want to redeploy some of those into pricing without compromising our return objectives, we'll do that.

你可以看到非常出色的核保結果，但要把「提供給核保人的洞察改善」與「最終結果」之間畫出一條非常直接的因果線並不容易。所以這部分比較難看得那麼清楚。但退一步看，我們能夠運用營運槓桿的方式，加上那些我們無法量化的效益，都已經內嵌在我們的成果之中。如果我們決定想把其中一部分重新投入到定價上、且不會損及我們的報酬目標，我們就會這麼做。

Well, do you have a confidence if we look 5 years out, you will be taking a greater share of your agent business overall, a higher percentage of their footprint, I guess, that you have right now?

那麼，你是否有信心，如果我們把時間拉到 5 年後，你們在整體代理人業務中會拿到更大的份額，也就是在他們整體業務版圖中的占比會高於現在？

Josh, it's really hard to look five years out, I think, in any business, but we've said for a long time that we think there are meaningful benefits of scale, including the ability to invest at the level that we're investing and I think the early benefits come through expenses and the loss ratio, so we'll see it in margins. And over time, that's going to translate into growth. So I do think that Travelers will be a consolidator of premium.

Josh，我認為在任何行業要看 5 年後都很難，但我們長期以來一直說，我們認為規模帶來的效益很可觀，包括能以我們目前的投資強度來投資；而我認為早期的效益會先反映在費用與損失率上，所以我們會在利潤率上看到。隨著時間推移，這會轉化為成長。所以我確實認為 Travelers 會成為保費的整合者。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

In Commercial Lines, I don't believe there was any kind of color on RRC rate change drivers this quarter. If you would be willing to kind of just unpack whether there's any particular line or lines that kind of are driving the downwards trend line?

在商業險（Commercial Lines）方面，我記得本季你們沒有特別說明 RRC 費率變動的驅動因素。如果你願意的話，能否拆解一下，是否有某一個或某幾個險種在推動這條向下的趨勢線？

Yes. Let me just step back and just make a few observations about the overall pricing environment. If there is there's one word over the top to describe it, I would say it's stable. I'm not going to get into what RPC did by every single line, but just for example, the sequential change in our PC and property was small, it was very small. We're not prepared to call the bottom.

好的。我先退一步，對整體定價環境做幾點觀察。如果要用一個最貼切的詞來形容，我會說是「穩定」。我不會逐一談 RPC 在每一個險種的表現，但舉例來說，我們在 PC 與財產險（property）的 RPC 季度環比變化很小，非常小。我們還不準備宣告已經觸底。

Certainly, you couldn't call a bottom off 1 data point and who knows what's going to happen 90 days from now, but we were very pleased to see a very, very small change there. The sequential movement in RPC in the liability lines, and now I'm talking about GL umbrella was also modest. So all in all, pretty orderly. And we talk all the time about the fact that we execute 1 account at a time. We're looking at the next account and deciding whether we want it in the portfolio and at what price.

當然，你不可能只憑 1 個數據點就判斷觸底，而且誰知道 90 天後會發生什麼，但我們很高興看到那裡的變化非常、非常小。責任險條線的 RPC 季度環比變動——我現在指的是一般責任（GL）與超額責任（umbrella）——也屬溫和。所以整體而言相當有序。我們也一直在談，我們是一個帳戶一個帳戶地執行。我們看下一個帳戶，決定是否要納入投資組合，以及要用什麼價格。

And it's also just a reflection of the returns by line. If you look at by line pricing, retention and return, it's a perfectly rational picture across the board. It's just -- the execution couldn't be better.

這也反映了各險種的報酬狀況。如果你按險種去看定價、續保率與報酬，整體呈現的是一幅完全理性的圖像。只是——執行面不可能更好了。

Got it. And my follow-up, just going back to A lot of the good color you've given on, kind of, Travelers innovation on the claims front and underwriting front. And I think, Alan, you talked specifically about expecting to bend the loss curve I believe, in casualty. If I juxtapose that with IBNR levels currently in the long-tail casualty line specifically commercial auto and commercial casualty, noncomp. Is it fair to say that the current IBNR are, kind of, higher than the company's long-term targets.

了解。我的追問是，回到你們剛才提供的很多很好的細節，關於 Travelers 在理賠端與核保端的創新。我想 Alan 你特別提到，預期能夠讓損失曲線彎折（bend the loss curve），我記得是在意外險（casualty）。如果把這點與目前長尾意外險條線的 IBNR 水準並列來看，特別是商業車險與商業意外險（非工傷）。是否可以說，目前的 IBNR 大致上高於公司長期目標水準？

And if you do bend the loss curve trend, the IBNR levels would kind of mean revert over many years, lower?

如果你們確實讓損失曲線趨勢彎折，那麼 IBNR 水準是否會在很多年之後回歸均值、變得更低？

Mike, it's Dan. I'll try that. Look, I think 1 thing that's happened, especially if you want to look at the components of reserves between case and IBNR now versus 3 years ago or 5 years ago or 10 years ago, I don't think we're ever literally ever going to go back to the levels that we saw 10 years ago because attorney report is higher, that lengthens the tail, more claims come in later. So -- and that's really the point that we made a few years ago in 2024 when we started talking about an uncertainty provision to allow for the possibility that those trends would continue. And so when Alan referenced earlier in his comments, pressure on the loss cost, which somebody else asked about, that just means loss costs continue to go up, but they are not going up by any more than we anticipated than we anticipated in our picks.

Mike，我是 Dan。我來回答。我想有一件事已經發生了，特別是如果你去看準備金在個案準備金（case）與 IBNR 之間的構成，拿現在跟 3 年前、5 年前或 10 年前相比，我不認為我們會、也不可能真的回到 10 年前看到的水準，因為律師介入率更高，這會拉長尾部，更多理賠會在更晚的時間點才進來。所以——這也正是我們幾年前在 2024 年開始談到「不確定性準備」的重點，用來容許這些趨勢可能持續。因此，當 Alan 先前在評論中提到有人問到的損失成本壓力時，那只是表示損失成本仍在上升，但上升幅度並沒有超出我們在估計（picks）中所預期的。

So I think the component of our ultimate loss pick is perfectly logical given the current development patterns. If, in fact, the actions that we're taking in our client organization, translate into a better outcome than for sure, there's going to be some IBNR that we ultimately don't need, but we are not projecting that as we sit here today.

所以我認為，在目前的發展型態下，我們對最終損失的估計中 IBNR 的組成是完全合乎邏輯的。如果我們在客戶組織（client organization）所採取的行動，確實帶來比預期更好的結果，那麼當然，最終會有一些 IBNR 我們不再需要，但就我們今天坐在這裡的立場，我們並沒有把這點納入預測。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan，Wells Fargo。

My first question is on the expense ratio guide. I think you guys said right, a little under 29 this year. And then guided to the same level next year. Understanding right this year is a little higher than expected on variable comp. But as we think about the next year or some improvements around AI maybe being offset by other things that you expect '27 to be more or less stable with where you're now expecting '26?

我的第一個問題是關於費用率指引。我想你們說今年會略低於 29，對嗎？然後指引明年也會在同一水準。我理解今年可變薪酬（variable comp）比預期高一些。但當我們思考明年，或是 AI 帶來的一些改善可能會被你們預期的其他因素抵消時，你們是否預期 2027 年大致會維持穩定，與你們目前對 2026 年的預期差不多？

Yes, Elyse, it's Dan. So -- look the expense ratio, as we say all the time, we'll decide what we want the expense ratio to be and then dial into that number. A big component of that is what do we think we need the expense ratio to be in order to have a competitive position in the marketplace. And -- so we're pretty copacetic with where that is right now. As you mentioned, and as I said, keep in mind that pretty much the largest component of the expense ratio is commissions, which includes the contingent commission and the profit sharing.

是的，Elyse，我是 Dan。那——你看，費用率我們一直說，我們會先決定希望費用率是多少，然後把各項調整對準那個數字。其中一個很大的組成是：我們認為費用率需要是多少，才能在市場上保持競爭地位。所以——我們對目前的水準相當滿意。如你提到的，也如我所說，請記住費用率中最大的一塊幾乎就是佣金，其中包含或有佣金（contingent commission）與利潤分成（profit sharing）。

And so we're in a very strong position from a margin perspective. I don't expect that to reverse itself in the near term. So about where we are is pretty good with us for right now.

因此，從利潤率角度來看，我們處於非常強勢的位置。我不預期短期內會出現逆轉。所以就目前的水準而言，對我們來說現在是相當不錯的。

And then my second question is on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio. That went up by about 50 basis points from last Q3. You guys didn't call it anything in the prepared remarks, so maybe there was nothing not significant, but was there a non-cat weather or anything else you would describe as the drivers of the year-over-year change there?

那我的第二個問題是關於商業保險（Business Insurance）的基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）。相較去年第三季大約上升了 50 個基點。你們在事先準備的講稿中沒有特別提到，所以也許沒有什麼重大因素，但是否有非巨災天氣（non-cat weather）或其他你會用來描述其年對年變動驅動因素的項目？

Yes, Elyse, it's Dan. So I think you're right in the first place, not a very big change and nothing in particular to call out. It's a great number, and it moved by about 0.5 point year-over-year, which could have easily moved to 0.5 point the other way. A bunch of stuff in there as there always is, the impact of pricing, product mix, there are changes in non-cat property losses. There's base year changes, there's the impact of strategic investments we're making, as Greg mentioned in his remarks again, but none of those things were particularly noteworthy this quarter.

是的，Elyse，我是 Dan。所以我認為你一開始的判斷是對的，變化並不大，也沒有什麼特別需要點出的。這是一個很好的數字，年比年大約變動了 0.5 個百分點，而它其實也很可能往另一個方向變動 0.5 個百分點。裡面一如既往有很多因素，包括定價的影響、產品組合，以及非巨災財產損失的變化。還有基期年度的變動、我們正在進行的策略性投資的影響（Greg 在他的發言中也再次提到），但這一季這些因素都沒有特別值得注意的地方。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

I'm looking at slide 7 of your presentation, and it just really strikes me how strong net investment income improved year after year. So the question is, is that now finally -- and your combined are fantastic. Is that going to start to weigh into your pricing? How are you thinking about net investment income with respect to pricing?

我在看你們簡報的第 7 頁，真的讓我印象很深的是，淨投資收益年比年改善得非常強勁。所以問題是，這是否終於——而且你們的綜合率也非常出色。這會開始影響你們的定價嗎？你們如何看待淨投資收益與定價之間的關係？

We do have a link between our expectation for net investment income and our insurance pricing. It's it's, of course, part of the model. Just a couple of things to think about, though, the portfolio turns over relatively slowly. So it takes a while to earn in. And as the risk-free rate goes up, our hurdle returns go up. So you, sort of, have to put all that into the blender to figure out what the impact is.

我們確實會把對淨投資收益的預期與保險定價連結起來。當然，這是模型的一部分。不過有幾點可以思考：投資組合的周轉相對較慢。所以需要一段時間才能逐步反映在收益上。而且當無風險利率上升時，我們的門檻報酬率也會上升。所以你必須把這些因素都放進去綜合考量，才能判斷最終的影響。

Got it. Personal Lines, so we saw renewal premium change go down 0.6% in auto, it was down 3% in auto, down 4% in homeowners. Could you talk a little bit about the competitive landscape in personal lines. And with all this competition, how are you defending the for? How are you going to keep if up rather than down?

了解。個人保險方面，我們看到汽車續保保費變動下降 0.6%，汽車是下降 3%，房屋險下降 4%。你能談談個人保險市場的競爭態勢嗎？在競爭這麼激烈的情況下，你們如何防守你們的——你們要如何讓它維持上升而不是下降？

Sure, Andrew. It's Michael. I mean, I think the comments that I made in my prepared remarks are really key to what we're doing there. And to be clear, we're definitely not want to chase premium growth at all costs in any given short period of time, right? Our objective is to profitably grow this business over time.

當然可以，Andrew。我是 Michael。我在事先準備的發言中提到的重點，對我們在那裡所做的事情非常關鍵。而且要說清楚的是，我們絕對不會在任何短期內不計代價去追逐保費成長，對吧？我們的目標是隨時間推進，以獲利的方式成長這項業務。

We do that by matching price to risk. And so you see that activity in the RPC numbers that you're looking at, right? In the third quarter of this year, we took about 10 rate decreases in auto. Again, still in that same low single-digit range that we've been talking about. But as we monitor our performance and look at loss costs, we adjust pricing.

我們透過讓價格與風險相匹配來做到這一點。所以你在看的 RPC 數字中就能看到這些動作，對吧？在今年第三季，我們在汽車險做了大約 10 次降費率。同樣地，仍在我們一直談到的低個位數區間。但當我們監控自身表現並觀察損失成本時，我們就會調整定價。

So that's certainly a lever that we pull. We continue to make strategic investments in products and services and capabilities that make sure that we have the products and services our customers want to buy and our agents want to sell. And then we do quite a bit around distribution management, making sure that we've got the agents appointed that we need and that we are taking advantage of opportunities to solve problems for them.

所以這當然是我們會運用的一個槓桿。我們也持續在產品、服務與能力上進行策略性投資，確保我們提供的是客戶想買、以及代理人想賣的產品與服務。此外，我們在通路管理上也做了很多工作，確保我們已委任所需的代理人，並把握機會替他們解決問題。

When I talk about book consolidation opportunities, as an example, that's when we're working with an agent or a broker who's having issues with another carrier, and we talk to them about bringing that business over to travelers. So there are a number of things that we're doing from an appetite, pricing and distribution management standpoint, both to defend the force to use your words, but also to play offense to make sure that we're leveraging the capabilities we have to profitably grow the business over the long term.

例如我提到的保單簿整併機會，是指當我們與某位代理人或經紀人合作，而他們在其他保險公司那邊遇到問題時，我們會與他們討論把那部分業務轉到 Travelers。因此，從承保偏好、定價與通路管理的角度，我們正在做很多事情；既是用你的話來說「防守既有業務」，同時也會主動進攻，確保我們運用既有能力，在長期內以獲利方式成長這項業務。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，Mizuho。

I want to start maybe with the cyber insurance. Just given hugging phase, AI agents, maybe more hacking activity and capabilities, is this the line of business that is a viable business line for the private market? Do you need maybe more government support or more systemic intervention here? How are you thinking about that?

我想先從網路保險談起。考量到所謂的「hacking phase」、AI 代理（AI agents），以及可能更多的駭客活動與能力提升，這條業務線對民間市場而言是否仍是可行的業務？是否需要更多政府支持或更系統性的介入？你們是怎麼思考這件事的？

This is Jeff. As consistently highlighted by the Travelers Business Risk Index, Cyber is 1 of the most important topics that our customers are facing. It's a dynamic exposure, and it has been, and there's no question that the advanced AI models are adding to that dynamic. I'd remind you when you think about our portfolio, it's heavily weighted toward the middle market Main Street businesses. We've always been focused on limits management.

我是 Jeff。正如 Travelers 企業風險指數（Business Risk Index）一再強調的，網路風險是我們客戶面臨的最重要議題之一。這是一種動態的曝險，而且一直都是；毫無疑問，先進的 AI 模型正在加劇這種動態性。提醒你在看我們的投資組合時，它高度偏向中型市場的 Main Street 企業。我們一向都很重視承保限額管理。

If you look inside our book of business, a substantial majority of our limits are at $1 million or less. Those accounts that are above that are predominantly at $5 million or less. And that's before you take into account any reinsurance that we have in place, and cyber has always been one of our most heavily reinsured lines of business.

如果你深入看我們的業務組合，絕大多數的承保限額在 100 萬美元或以下。高於這個水準的帳戶，多數也主要在 500 萬美元或以下。而這還沒把我們已安排的任何再保納入考量；而網路險一直是我們再保配置最重的業務線之一。

And then the last thing I'd share with you is that we've really invested heavily in risk control capabilities, including our acquisition of Corvus a few years ago that we've shared with you. We're not just assessing these accounts on the front end as we put them into the portfolio. We've got ongoing risk control capabilities to help them manage the risk. And so I think we are investing to address the exposure in partnership with our customers in many ways.

最後我想補充的是，我們在風險控管能力上投入非常多，包括幾年前我們收購 Corvus（也已與各位分享過）。我們不只是把這些帳戶納入投資組合時在前端做評估。我們也具備持續性的風險控管能力，協助他們管理風險。因此我認為，我們正以多種方式與客戶合作投資，以因應這項曝險。

Yaron, to the extent that was a public policy question and a question about whether we need a government backstop. I don't really know. I mean there's active conversations about that now, and we'll see how that plays out.

Yaron，如果那是公共政策層面的問題，也就是是否需要政府提供承保後盾（backstop）。我其實不太確定。我的意思是，目前確實有一些積極的討論，我們就看後續會如何發展。

Okay. And then maybe going back a second to Business Insurance. So obviously, you see a little bit of noise quarter over quarter. But if I look at the year-to-date numbers, they're flat, right, on the combined ratio of the loss ratio. Is that kind of a fair way of thinking about where the company is today and what the expectations would be going forward?

好的。那再回到商業保險（Business Insurance）一下。很明顯，你會看到季度之間有一些波動。但如果我看年初至今的數字，它們是持平的，對吧？不論是綜合率或損失率。用這種方式來理解公司目前的狀況，以及對未來的預期，算是合理嗎？

We should start with the noise comment. I mean these are spectacular numbers. And so there really is no noise in them. There are, as always, a bunch of puts and takes, some things some things are favorable. Some things are going the other way, but this is a spectacular number.

我們先從你說的波動（noise）談起。我的意思是，這些數字非常亮眼。所以其中其實沒有什麼「雜訊」。一如往常，確實有很多此消彼長的因素，有些是有利的。有些則往另一個方向走，但這就是一個非常出色的數字。

And I think to Alan's earlier comment on top line, we're not going to give guidance on combined ratio expectations in any of the segments other than to reiterate, like the profitability of the business is really strong. We're generating all-time high levels of underlying underwriting income, and we think that's got some staying power.

而且呼應 Alan 先前對營收端（top line）的評論，我們不會對任何分部的綜合率預期提供指引；我們只能重申，這項業務的獲利能力非常強。我們正在創造歷史新高水準的基礎承保收益（underlying underwriting income），而且我們認為這種表現具有一定的延續性。

Okay. And just to be clear, I did not mean noise, right? I meant puts and takes to your point.

好的。再澄清一下，我並不是指「雜訊」，對吧？我的意思是如你所說的此消彼長因素（puts and takes）。

Thank you for the clarification.

感謝您的澄清。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

Matthew Heimermann，花旗。

I guess the question I had was just we're seeing more at an industry level scrutiny of just claim settlement practices in general. There's some litigation Oklahoma, California obviously has been active. I'm just curious, I know that your claims practices are unique to your company and the industry isn't necessarily represented a view. But I'm curious, just how you would frame the risk from continued scrutiny on practices? Just from a regulatory perspective, I have given me a value in the back of my head as -- I don't know if it's the right analog, but something similar where claims practices were scrutinized and you saw some changes on the back of it, both in terms of coverage and how companies operate.

我想我想問的問題是，我們看到在產業層面，對理賠結案作業實務整體的審視正在增加。在奧克拉荷馬州有一些訴訟，加州顯然也一直很活躍。我只是好奇，我知道你們的理賠作業實務是你們公司特有的，且整個產業未必能代表某一種觀點。但我想請教，你們會如何界定在持續審視作業實務下的風險？就監理角度而言，我腦中有一個參考值——我不確定是否是正確的類比，但有點像過去理賠作業實務被嚴格檢視後，你看到一些隨之而來的變化，無論是在承保範圍或公司運作方式上。

Yes, let me just start, and you referenced our practices. I should just say there have been a couple of articles recently about this. One we weren't in at all, and the other, we were profiled as pretty favorable. So I just want to distinguish that from what's going on out there. Do you want to talk about close to that page and the things that could impact that, Michael?

是的，讓我先從你提到我們的作業實務開始說起。我應該先說，最近有幾篇相關報導。其中一篇完全沒有提到我們，另一篇則把我們描繪得相當正面。所以我想先把這點與外界正在發生的事情區分開來。Michael，你要不要就接近這個主題的部分，以及可能影響它的因素談談？

Yes, sure. I mean I think again, those couple of articles really focused on close without pay percentages across carriers. To Alan's point, in that first article, we looked favorable. That said, comparing close without paid percentages across carriers is very fragile. The definition of claims, when they're established, why they're established, what causes them to be paid with and without -- or close with and without payment vary from 1 insurer to the next just from a definitional standpoint.

好的，當然。我的意思是，我認為那幾篇報導主要聚焦在各家保險公司「結案但未付款」（close without pay）的比例。如 Alan 所說，在第一篇報導中，我們看起來是相對有利的。但話說回來，跨公司比較「結案但未付款」比例其實非常脆弱。從定義面來看，理賠案件如何定義、何時立案、為何立案，以及什麼原因導致「有付款/無付款結案」或「有付款/無付款」的差異，各家保險公司之間都不盡相同。

But you can have a claim filed and have the loss be below the deductible, for example, as a reason that, that claim gets closed without payment.

例如，可能有人提出理賠申請，但損失金額低於自負額，這就會是該理賠案件「結案但未付款」的原因之一。

And then, I guess, to your broader question about seeing these cases in Oklahoma and other places against other carriers for their claim handling practices, just reinforcing Alan's comment. I mean we have well-established claim handling practices. They're grounded in the philosophy to pay what we owe to deliver exceptional customer experience and do that as efficiently and effectively as possible. And I would say our claim handling and our claim organization is the best in the business. We're proud of it.

然後，回到你更廣泛的問題——關於在奧克拉荷馬州及其他地方，針對其他保險公司理賠處理實務所出現的案件——我只是要再次強調 Alan 的評論。我的意思是，我們有完善且成熟的理賠處理作業實務。其核心理念是：支付我們應付的金額、提供卓越的客戶體驗，並以盡可能高效率且有效的方式做到這一點。我也會說，我們的理賠處理與理賠組織是業界最好的。我們以此為榮。

We hear from our agents and brokers that it's one of the reasons they are proud to represent and sell travelers. So I think we've really got a strong foundation in that space.

我們也從代理人與經紀人那裡聽到，這是他們以能代表並銷售 Travelers 為榮的原因之一。所以我認為我們在這方面確實有非常扎實的基礎。

Matt, with all that said, let me try to answer your question. We are very active as a company and just an effort to be an honest broker out there in state capitals and with insurance commissioners and with the media and our trade association is very active in the same places, making sure that we're educating people and people understand the good work this industry does, the billions of dollars that we do pay out, the speed with which we pay it out, the risk control services that we provide. So we are very attentive to this as a topic of interest, and we are very engaged in speaking to it.

Matt，在上述前提下，讓我試著回答你的問題。我們公司非常積極，努力在各州首府、與保險監理官員、以及媒體之間扮演誠實的溝通者；我們的產業公會也在同樣的場域非常活躍，確保我們能教育大眾，讓大家理解這個產業所做的良好工作、我們確實支付的數十億美元、我們支付的速度，以及我們提供的風險控管服務。因此，我們非常關注這個議題，也非常積極投入並對外說明。

I appreciate that. If I could sneak one last in mindful of time is just is it fair to say then when you think about creating benchmarks for measuring the performance of your claims organization and how you organize it that, that's an internal effort rather than relying on third parties to shape practices and targets, et cetera.

我很感謝這些說明。如果我能在時間允許下再補問最後一個問題：那麼，當你們思考建立衡量理賠組織績效的基準，以及如何組織理賠部門時，是否可以說這主要是內部推動的工作，而不是依賴第三方來形塑作業實務與目標等？

I'm not exactly sure of the question, but I mean we certainly have our internal benchmarks and our service level objectives. For example, our objective is to close 90% of claims within 30 days after every catastrophe. And over the course of the year, we routinely achieve that objective. But our real objective is to pay what we owe and to pay it quickly. And we are very disciplined about that.

我不太確定你的問題是什麼，但我的意思是，我們當然有內部的基準與服務水準目標。例如，我們的目標是在每一次重大災害發生後的 30 天內結案 90% 的理賠案件。而在一年當中，我們也經常達成這個目標。但我們真正的目標是支付我們應付的金額，並且快速支付。而我們在這方面非常自律。

Yes, that's fair. I'm sorry, I butchered the question. I really meant the source of some of the litigation at least is use of third-party consultants shaping policies and procedures and other incentives within the organization, and that seems contrary to at least my historical recollection and experience with our company.

是的，這樣說很公平。抱歉，我把問題問得不太好。我真正想說的是，至少部分訴訟的源頭在於使用第三方顧問來影響政策與程序，以及組織內的其他誘因；而這似乎與我對我們公司過往的記憶與經驗相違背。

Yes. We and others endeavor to use the data that we have about the good work we do to rebut some of the data others are using to try to make the other case. I think this industry is highly responsible and disciplined. And we use the data that we have to make that case.

是的。我們以及其他同業都會努力運用我們手上關於我們良好作為的數據，來反駁一些他人用來主張相反論點的數據。我認為這個產業是高度負責且自律的。而我們會用我們掌握的數據來證明這一點。

We have reached the end of our call. I will now turn the call back to Abbe Goldstein for closing remarks.

我們的電話會議已到尾聲。我現在把電話交回給 Abbe Goldstein 做結語。

Thanks very much for joining us today. As always, if there's any follow-up, please reach out to Investor Relations, and have a good day.

非常感謝各位今天加入我們。一如往常，如有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資人關係部門，祝各位有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。