使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Angela and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the first quarter 2026 conference call.
感謝您耐心等候。我是 Angela,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我想歡迎各位參加 2026 年第一季電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jacob Milgard, CEO. You may begin.
(接線員指示) 謝謝。現在我想把電話交給執行長 Jacob Milgard 先生。您可以開始了。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, and welcome to everyone joining us today. We started 2026 with a very strong first quarter, delivering results that demonstrate both the early power of our platform and the strength of our execution in a supportive freight market.
謝謝,也歡迎今天加入我們的各位。我們以非常強勁的第一季展開 2026 年,交出能同時展現我們平台早期威力與在有利運價市場中執行力的成果。
This morning, we released our Q1 2026 results, and we are pleased with the performance.
今天早上,我們發布了 2026 年第一季業績,我們對表現感到滿意。
However, before I go into the details of the quarter, I would like to take a step back and briefly talk about TORM and the foundation that underpins these results and continues to differentiate us in the market.
不過,在我深入說明本季細節之前,我想先退一步,簡要談談 TORM,以及支撐這些成果並持續讓我們在市場上脫穎而出的基礎。
Again, our performance was driven by a combination of strong freight rates, disciplined execution, and the One TORM platform.
再次強調,我們的表現是由強勁運價、紀律化執行,以及 One TORM 平台的組合所驅動。
While we remain attentive to global developments, we continue to align ourselves with market changes and believe we have a unique ability to react quickly to movements in spot prices. This is something we are often asked about.
雖然我們仍密切關注全球發展,但我們持續與市場變化保持一致,並相信我們具備快速因應現貨價格波動的獨特能力。這也是外界經常詢問我們的問題。
The answer is that it represents a quantifiable advantage over our peers, what we refer to as the one-term advantage.
答案是:這代表相較同業可量化的優勢,我們稱之為「one-term 優勢」。
It is now embedded in the way we operate and is a capability our competitors would undoubtedly like to replicate.
它如今已深植於我們的營運方式之中,且無疑是競爭對手也希望複製的一項能力。
Importantly, this advantage is the result of a journey over many years, a journey that continues to evolve.
重要的是,這項優勢來自多年累積的歷程,而這段歷程仍在持續演進。
We are able to track this across a range of performance indicators.
我們能透過一系列績效指標來追蹤這點。
For example, over a three-year period, our Mr. Fleet generated TCE revenue that exceeded the peer average by approximately USD200 million, reflecting the strength and efficiency of our operating model through higher utilization, disciplined cost control, and strong commercial execution.
例如,在三年期間內,我們的 Mr.船隊所創造的 TCE 收入較同業平均高出約 2 億美元,反映出我們營運模式的強度與效率,來源包括更高的使用率、紀律化的成本控管,以及強勁的商業執行。
This culture of operational excellence is supported by our centralized management platform that coordinates and accelerates our decision-making.
這種營運卓越的文化,受到我們集中式管理平台的支持,該平台能協調並加速我們的決策。
This is good news for our investors because it means we are now extremely well-placed for the complex landscape ahead, and we remain confident. That the shifting sands of geopolitical uncertainty continue to present opportunities for us. Thus, it's no surprise to us that Tom's share are currently in focus among the investment community has arrived to unlock value from this uncertainty.
這對投資人而言是好消息,因為這意味著我們如今已非常有利於面對前方複雜的局勢,我們仍然充滿信心。地緣政治不確定性所帶來的變動仍持續為我們創造機會。因此,TOM 的股票目前在投資社群中成為焦點、並已到來以從這種不確定性中釋放價值,對我們而言並不意外。
And now please to slide number four.
現在請看第 4 張投影片。
As always, I'll start with the key financial upcomes for the quarter to give you a clear picture of how the business is developing.
一如往常,我會先從本季的關鍵財務成果開始,讓各位清楚了解業務的發展情況。
During the first quarter, we delivered TCE of USD286 million, representing a clear continuation of the positive earnings trajectory seen in all recent quarters.
第一季我們達成 TCE 2.86 億美元,明顯延續近幾季所見的正向獲利趨勢。
This was significantly higher than the same quarter last year, driven by consistently firm freight rates throughout the period, which strengthened further toward quarter end.
這顯著高於去年同期,主要受惠於期間內運價持續堅挺,並在季末進一步走強。
These conditions reflect a value chain currently characterized by abnormal trade flows and structural inefficiencies, resulting in elevated margins not only for tanker companies like us, but also for our customers who are capturing strong profitability across the trading and refining segments.
這些情況反映出目前價值鏈呈現異常貿易流向與結構性低效率的特徵,導致利潤率上升,不僅對我們這類油輪公司如此,對客戶亦然;客戶在貿易與煉油環節均取得強勁獲利。
That truck time performance translated into an EBITDA of USD201 million and a net profit of USD122 million, reflecting both the strength of the market environment and our ability to convert rates into earnings through disciplined commercial execution and operational leverage.
該 truck time 表現轉化為 EBITDA 2.01 億美元與淨利 1.22 億美元,反映市場環境的強勁,以及我們透過紀律化的商業執行與營運槓桿,將運價轉化為獲利的能力。
Supported by the continued strength we see across our markets and the solid momentum entering the remainder of the year. We are therefore increasing our full-year guidance to USD1.15 billion to USD1.45 billion, underscoring our confidence in sustaining profitable growth.
在我們各市場持續強勁的支撐下,且進入今年剩餘期間的動能穩健。因此,我們將全年指引上調至 11.5 億至 14.5 億美元,凸顯我們對維持獲利性成長的信心。
Also, we continued active fleet renewal, adding younger second-hand vestors and committing further acquisitions while divesting older tonnage.
此外,我們持續積極進行船隊汰舊換新,增添較年輕的二手 vestors,並承諾進一步收購,同時處分較老舊的船舶。
After quarter end, we also agreed to acquire six Mr. Resales. With expected delivery of four in 2027 and two in 2028.
在季後,我們也同意收購六艘 Mr.Resales。預計其中四艘於 2027 年交付、兩艘於 2028 年交付。
These acquisitions further enhance fleet flexibility and earnings capacity while preserving a prudent age profile.
這些收購將在維持審慎船齡結構的同時,進一步提升船隊彈性與獲利能力。
As of quarter-end, our fleet consisted of 95 vessels. Once all the before-mentioned transactions are completed, the fleet will increase to 103 vessels on a fully delivered basis.
截至季末,我們的船隊共有 95 艘船舶。待上述所有交易完成後,以全數交付為基礎,船隊將增加至 103 艘。
Please turn to slide 5.
請翻到第 5 張投影片。
Before moving to the broader market, let me briefly address our current operating status.
在進入更廣泛的市場討論之前,我先簡要說明我們目前的營運狀態。
Safety remains our highest priority.
安全仍是我們的最高優先事項。
We currently have one vessel inside the Persian Gulf, and I'm pleased to say that the crew are doing well, morale is high, and provisions are not an issue.
我們目前有一艘船在波斯灣內,我很高興地表示船員狀況良好、士氣高昂,補給也不是問題。
As we will describe on this call, the market impact has been significant, tightening effective supply and contributing to the sharp increase in freight rates.
如同我們在本次電話會議將說明的,市場影響相當顯著,使有效供給收緊,並促成運價大幅上升。
Bunker prices have also moved higher, although availability remains secure.
燃油價格也走高,但供應可得性仍然穩定。
Throughout this period, our approach has been clear and unchanged. We take a safety-first approach in all operating decisions.
在這段期間,我們的做法一直很清楚且未曾改變。我們在所有營運決策上都採取「安全第一」的原則。
Please turn to slide 7.
請翻到第 7 張投影片。
Following a strong close to 2025, product tanker markets entered the first quarter of 2026 with rates stabilizing at levels well above historical averages.
在 2025 年強勁收官之後,成品油輪市場於 2026 年第一季以運價穩定在遠高於歷史平均的水準開局。
This strength was supported by broader momentum in the crude tanker market, which benefited from record volumes of cargo underwater, as well as the return of Venezuelan exports to the compliant fleet, and generally more cautious use. Of sanctioned investors globally. And on top of this, the development was further supported by the consolidation of the ownership in the BLCC segment.
這股強勢也受到原油油輪市場更廣泛動能的支撐;該市場受惠於創紀錄的海上貨量,以及委內瑞拉出口回歸合規船隊,並且整體上更為謹慎地使用。全球受制裁的投資人。此外,BLCC 區隔的所有權整合也進一步支撐了這一發展。
The outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz marked a further and unprecedented escalation in sanction rates. This is clearly reflected in our commercial performance. With Q2 average bookings to date above USD70,000 per day across vessel sizes.
2 月下旬爆發的美國—以色列—伊朗戰爭,以及隨後荷姆茲海峽的關閉,標誌著制裁運價出現進一步且前所未有的升級。這在我們的商業表現上清楚反映。截至目前,第二季平均訂艙在各船型上均高於每日 70,000 美元。
Taken together, these dynamics have created one of the strongest cross-segment market environments we've seen in several years, underpinned by both structural and event-driven factors.
綜合而言,這些動態在結構性與事件驅動因素的支撐下,創造了我們數年來所見最強勁的跨區隔市場環境之一。
And kindly turn to the next slide, turn to slide 8, please.
也請翻到下一張投影片,請翻到第 8 張投影片。
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had an immediate and profound impact on global energy flows.
荷姆茲海峽的關閉對全球能源流向造成即時且深遠的影響。
Approximately 14% of global fuel petroleum product volumes and around 30% of crude oil movements that would normally transit the strait was suddenly constrained.
約 14% 的全球燃料石油產品量,以及約 30% 原本會通過該海峽的原油運輸量,突然受到限制。
Combined, this corresponds to approximately 20% of global daily oil consumption.
合計而言,這相當於全球每日石油消耗量約 20%。
In scale and immediacy. This represents the largest oil supply disruption the market has ever experienced.
就規模與即時性而言。這代表市場有史以來所經歷的最大石油供應中斷。
On the clean product side, the impact was uneven.
在潔淨成品油方面,影響並不均衡。
NAFTA and jet fuel were disproportionately affected, reflecting the Persian Gulf's central role in global exports, accounting for 37% of global NAFTA exports and 21% of jet fuel under normal conditions.
石腦油(NAFTA)與航空燃油受到不成比例的衝擊,反映波斯灣在全球出口中的核心角色;在正常情況下,波斯灣占全球石腦油出口的 37%,以及航空燃油的 21%。
Diesel and gasoline were relatively less exposed.
柴油與汽油的相對曝險較低。
As the next slide will show, only a fraction of these lost volumes have been replaced so far, underscoring how structural this shock has been.
如下一張投影片所示,截至目前僅有一小部分流失的量被替代,凸顯這次衝擊具有高度結構性。
Please turn to Slide 9.
請翻到第 9 張投影片。
In crude markets, part of the lost Persian Gulf supply has been mitigated through pipeline redirection from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside increased flows from the Atlantic Basin.
在原油市場方面,部分流失的波斯灣供給已透過沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋的管線改道,以及大西洋盆地流量增加而得到緩解。
However, reduced crude availability at Asian refineries has forced meaningful run costs, which in turn has sharply reduced clean petroleum product exports from the region.
然而,亞洲煉油廠可取得的原油減少,迫使產能利用率出現顯著下調,進而使該地區的潔淨石油產品出口大幅下降。
By the end of April, global clean petroleum product rate was down by roughly 16%, as incremental supply from Western markets put insufficient to offset the loss of Middle Eastern and Asian export.
截至 4 月底,全球潔淨石油產品運價約下滑 16%;西方市場增加的供給仍不足以抵消中東與亞洲出口的流失。
Crude oil trade saw a decline of similar magnitude.
原油貿易亦出現幅度相近的下滑。
Despite this contraction in traded volumes, product tanker rates remained elevated. Some of this reflects longer replacement voyages and urgency premiums. But the more important explanation lies on the ton's supply side, which I'll address on the next slide. And here, please turn to the next slide to slide 10.
儘管交易量收縮,成品油油輪運價仍維持在高位。其中一部分反映了替代航程變長以及緊急溢價。但更重要的解釋在於運力供給端,我將在下一張投影片說明。在此,請翻到下一張投影片,也就是第10頁。
The closure of this rate of Amos caused significant vessel dislocation, with more than 200 crude and product centers stranded inside the Persian Gulf.
此一阿莫斯海峽的關閉造成嚴重的船舶錯置,超過200艘原油與成品油油輪滯留在波斯灣內。
This equates to roughly 3% of the global product center fleet and 6% of the crude fleet.
這相當於全球成品油油輪船隊約3%,以及原油油輪船隊約6%。
As vessels were rerouted toward regions with replacement volumes, we saw higher balance ratios and materially increased inefficiencies. In simple terms. Ships spending more time sailing empty to reach the next cargo.
隨著船舶改道前往有替代貨量的地區,我們看到更高的平衡比率以及效率顯著下降。簡單來說,船舶為了前往下一票貨,空載航行的時間變得更長。
In the Mr. Segment, increased east-to-west balancing was partially offset by stronger west-to-east cargo flows as Asian product supply tightened.
在MR船型方面,東向西的平衡需求增加,部分被更強的西向東貨流所抵消,因為亞洲成品油供應趨緊。
At the same time, we saw an unprecedented shift of LR2 vessels into crude trading, the so-called duty-ops.
同時,我們看到LR2船舶以前所未有的幅度轉入原油運輸交易,也就是所謂的「duty-ops」。
By the end of April. The number of LR2s trading clean products had fallen by more than 50 vessels compared with the start of the year, despite the delivery of 27 new buildings.
截至4月底,與年初相比,從事清潔成品油交易的LR2數量減少了50多艘,儘管期間交付了27艘新造船。
As a result, effective CPP trading fee capacity declined by around 4%, even before accounting for the vessels stranded in the Gulf.
因此,即使尚未將滯留在波斯灣的船舶納入計算,有效的CPP(清潔石油產品)交易船隊運力也下降了約4%。
Please turn to slide 11. It is, however, important to recognize that this migration of LR2s into crude trading began well before the Strait of Hormuz closure.
請翻到第11頁。不過,重要的是要認知到,LR2轉入原油交易的趨勢早在荷莫茲海峽關閉之前就已開始。
Since 2025, the Aframax and LR2 segments have faced extensive vessel sanctioning, largely linked to Russian crude trades.
自2025年以來,Aframax與LR2船型面臨廣泛的船舶制裁,主要與俄羅斯原油貿易相關。
In 2025 alone, more than 200 Aframax and LR2 vessels were sanctioned.
僅在2025年,就有超過200艘Aframax與LR2船舶遭到制裁。
This has created a growing disconnect between new building deliveries and effective fleet growth.
這造成新造船交付量與有效船隊成長之間的落差日益擴大。
Since the start of 2025, nominal product tanker capacity is up 8%, yet the capacity actually trading clean today is around 4% lower.
自2025年初以來,名目上的成品油油輪運力增加了8%,但目前實際從事清潔成品油交易的運力卻約低了4%。
The scale of sanctions is notable. One in four vessels in the combined AFRAM MAX LR2 segment is currently under US, EU or UK sanctions.
制裁規模相當顯著。在合併的Aframax與LR2船型中,目前每四艘就有一艘受到美國、歐盟或英國制裁。
This comes on top of an already balanced audible. Due to the high share of older vessels.
這是在原本就已相對平衡的供需基礎上再加一層壓力。原因在於老舊船舶占比偏高。
With 60% of the sanctioned fleet older than 20 years, the prospect of these ships returning to the mainstream clean market, even if sanctions were lifted, appears increasingly limited.
由於受制裁船隊中有60%船齡超過20年,即便制裁解除,這些船舶回到主流清潔市場的可能性也顯得愈來愈有限。
I now turn to slide 12. Let me frame this slide with one central point. What we are facing is not a return to normal, but a structural market reset.
我現在轉到第12頁。讓我用一個核心重點來框定這張投影片。我們面對的不是回歸常態,而是結構性的市場重置。
First, on timing.
首先,談時間點。
The duration and persistence of the closure of the Strait of Hormos remain uncertain, despite recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict.
荷莫茲海峽關閉的持續時間與延續性仍不確定,儘管近期有外交努力試圖結束衝突。
Currently, Taga transits through the Strait of Hormos remain more than 95% below the pre-conflict levels.
目前,通過荷莫茲海峽的油輪通行量仍較衝突前水準低逾95%。
We not know when transit will resume, but we are not speculating on the timing.
我們不知道何時會恢復通行,但我們不對時間點作出臆測。
That uncertainty is real, and we are managing the business responsibly with that reality in mind.
這種不確定性是真實存在的,我們也在此現實前提下,以負責任的方式管理業務。
What is equally important, however, is what happens after reopening.
然而,同樣重要的是重啟之後會發生什麼。
When transits resume, the market does not simply switch back to where it was. There will be tonnage dislocation and significant vessel repositioning as assets re-enter trade lanes that have been disrupted for an extended period.
當通行恢復時,市場不會只是簡單地切回原本的狀態。由於資產在受干擾的航線上中斷已久,將出現運力錯置與顯著的船舶重新部署。
That creates friction, inefficiency, and volatility, conditions where agile operators outperform.
這會帶來摩擦、低效率與波動,而在這樣的環境下,靈活的營運商表現更佳。
At the same time, depleted strategic and commercial inventories will need to be rebuilt, a multi-year process that supports sustained activity rather than a temporary outlet.
同時,耗減的戰略與商業庫存需要重建,這是一個多年期的過程,將支撐持續性的活動,而非短暫的需求出口。
The UAE's recent exit from OpEx enables higher production, which is likely to accelerate the replenishment of global oil stocks.
阿聯酋近期退出OpEx,使其得以提高產量,這很可能加速全球石油庫存的補充。
It's also important to remember that tanker market strength was already evident before the trader promotes closure.
同樣重要的是要記得,在海峽關閉之前,油輪市場的強勢就已經很明顯。
Those fundamentals were paused, not erased.
那些基本面只是被暫停,並未被抹去。
From our perspective, the key is readiness. We have deliberately built an agile business platform that allows us to react immediately.
從我們的角度來看,關鍵在於準備就緒。我們刻意打造了一個敏捷的營運平台,使我們能夠立即反應。
So when this rate opens, we are well positioned to benefit from the market research.
因此,當這條海峽重新開放時,我們將處於有利位置,得以受惠於市場回升。
Please turn to slide 13.
請翻到第13頁。
To conclude on the market, the tanker industry today is operating in an environment shaped by an unusually large and growing number of geopolitical factors.
總結市場部分,如今油輪產業正處於一個由異常龐大且持續增加的地緣政治因素所形塑的環境中運作。
Trade routes, cargo flows, sanctions regimes, and security considerations are all contributing to greater market inefficiency.
貿易航線、貨物流向、制裁制度與安全考量,都在推升市場低效率。
Importantly, this is not new, but it has intensified.
重要的是,這並非新現象,但已明顯加劇。
Since 2022, the number of geopolitical variables we are navigating has increased significantly, adding friction and complexity to global energy transportation.
自2022年以來,我們需要應對的地緣政治變數顯著增加,為全球能源運輸增添摩擦與複雜性。
For the industry, inefficiency translates into longer voyages, dislocated turns and volatility.
對產業而言,低效率意味著更長的航程、錯置的周轉以及波動。
For well-positioned operators like us, it also creates opportunity, provided you have the scale, agility and discipline to navigate it effectively.
對像我們這樣具備良好佈局的營運商而言,只要擁有規模、敏捷性與紀律來有效應對,也會創造機會。
And with that. I'll now hand it over to Kim, who will walk us through the numbers.
那麼,我現在把時間交給Kim,由她帶我們看數字。
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jacob. Now, please turn to slide 15 and let me walk you through some of the drivers behind our performance.
謝謝你,Jacob。現在請翻到第15頁,讓我帶各位了解推動我們表現的一些因素。
The product market entered 2026 on a strong footing, and this momentum was sustained throughout the first quarter, supporting another solid set of results for Tom.
成品油市場在2026年以強勁態勢開局,且這股動能在第一季持續,支撐了Tom再度交出一組穩健的成績。
For the first quarter, we delivered TCE of USD286 million, translating into EBITDA of USD201 million and a net profit of USD122 million.
第一季我們達成TCE 2.86億美元,對應EBITDA 2.01億美元,淨利潤1.22億美元。
These results reflect firm freight markets across the quarter and our continued ability to consistently capture this across the fleet.
這些結果反映了整個季度運費市場的堅挺,以及我們持續在全船隊穩定捕捉市場機會的能力。
On a fleet-wide basis, average TCE was USD34,937 per day. And by segment, LR2 earnings exceeded USD41,000 per day.
以全船隊口徑計算,平均TCE為每日34,937美元。按船型分,LR2日收益超過41,000美元。
AMRs earned just under USD33,000 per day, while LR1s came in around USD35,000 per day, i.e. Up significantly compared to the freight rates we had a year ago.
MR日收益略低於33,000美元,而LR1約為每日35,000美元,也就是說相較一年前的運價水準大幅上升。
Our TC earnings were affected by timing issues relating to IFRS 15. Under IFRS 15, we recognized freight.
我們的TC收益受到與IFRS 15相關的時點因素影響。依據IFRS 15,我們認列運費收入
Revenue from when cargo is loaded until it is discharged, not from when the voyage is agreed and hence influenced by changes in balance patterns.
是從貨物裝載到卸貨期間,而不是從航程達成協議時點開始,因此會受到平衡航線模式變化的影響。
It does not impact our underlying cash earnings or the economic performance of the vessels.
這不影響我們的基礎現金收益或船舶的經濟表現。
Again, the realized earnings level highlight the continued strength of the underlying market, supported in part by very firm crude tanker rates, which again influence product tanker dynamics positively.
同樣地,已實現的收益水準凸顯基本市場的持續強勁,部分也受到原油油輪運價非常堅挺的支撐,而這也再次對成品油油輪的供需動態帶來正面影響。
With that overview in place, let me turn to Slide 16, where we break down earnings down in more detail and walk through the underlying drivers.
在完成上述概覽後,讓我轉到第16頁,我們將更詳細拆解收益,並說明背後的驅動因素。
This slide illustrates our quarterly earnings development since the first quarter of 2025, and what stands out very clearly is the step-up we see in the most recent quarter.
這張投影片呈現自2025年第一季以來我們的季度收益走勢,而最清楚的重點是最近一季出現的明顯躍升。
While the Q1 results we delivered. And meaning uplift in earnings, continuing and accelerating the positive trajectory we've seen over recent quarters.
我們所交出的第一季結果,代表收益出現有意義的提升,延續並加速了近幾季的正向趨勢。
This reflects the strength of the freight market and confirms that the supportive market conditions are translating directly into financial performance.
這反映了運費市場的強勁,並確認有利的市場條件正直接轉化為財務表現。
For the quarter, we generated TCE of USD286 million and EBITDA of USD211 million, making this our strongest result since the second quarter of 2024.
本季我們創造了2.86億美元的TCE與2.11億美元的EBITDA,為自2024年第二季以來的最佳表現。
It is a clear validation of both the market environment and our ability to capture eyes on it.
這清楚驗證了市場環境以及我們把握市場機會的能力。
The primary variable is firm freight rates, supported by strong spillover from the food tanker sector and continued geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, which have introduced additional inefficiencies into the market.
主要變數是堅挺的運費水準,並受到食品油輪產業強勁外溢效應以及中東地緣政治持續擾動的支撐,這些因素為市場帶來額外的低效率。
Importantly, given the inherent operational leverage in our business model, incremental rate improvements translate efficiently into higher earnings.
重要的是,鑑於我們商業模式內在的營運槓桿,運價的增量改善能有效轉化為更高的獲利。
This sets out a solid foundation as we move through the remainder of the year.
這為我們走完今年剩餘時間奠定了穩固基礎。
Please turn to slide 17.
請翻到第17頁。
On this slide, we show the quarterly development, net profit alongside earnings and dividends per share.
在這一頁,我們展示季度走勢:淨利與每股盈餘及每股股利。
Starting with earnings, net profit increased to USD122 million, corresponding to earnings per share of USD1.21. Returning to free cash flow generation and capital returns.
先看獲利,淨利增加至1.22億美元,對應每股盈餘1.21美元。接著回到自由現金流的創造與資本回饋。
It is important to note that a combination of high freight rates and elevated bundle prices resulted in a net working capital increase of around USD30 million during the quarter.
需要注意的是,高運費與偏高的燃油價格組合,使本季淨營運資金增加約3,000萬美元。
Against this backdrop, the Board has declared a dividend of USD0.7 per share, equivalent to a payout ratio of 58%.
在此背景下,董事會宣告每股0.7美元股利,相當於58%的配息率。
This reflects the free cash flow generated after accounting for the working capital built.
這反映了在考量營運資金增加後所產生的自由現金流。
Absent to this effect. The implied payout ratio would have been in the range of 80% to 85%. We believe this once again demonstrates that our capital return framework strikes the right balance, remaining clear and dissipant while being firmly anchored in strong and sustainable underlying cash earnings generation.
若不受此影響,隱含的配息率將落在80%至85%之間。我們認為,這再次顯示我們的資本回饋架構取得了適當平衡:在保持清晰且具紀律的同時,也牢牢建立在強勁且可持續的基礎現金獲利能力之上。
And now, please turn to slide 18.
現在請翻到第18頁。
As shown on this slide. Broker valuations for our fleets stored at USD3.6 billion at the end of the quarter.
如本頁所示,截至季末,經紀商對我們船隊的估值為36億美元。
This reflects a continued positive sentiment across the tanker asset market and results in an increase in our net asset value to USD3.1 billion.
這反映油輪資產市場情緒持續正向,並使我們的淨資產價值提升至31億美元。
Importantly, average broker valuations for the fleet increased by 9.7% during the first quarter, with particularly strong appreciation seen in the ER2 and ER1 segments.
重要的是,第一季船隊的平均經紀商估值上升9.7%,其中ER2與ER1船型區隔的升值尤為強勁。
This development is an acceleration of what we observed the previous quarter and further underlies both the improving market backdrop and the quality of our asset base.
此一發展較前一季所見更為加速,並進一步凸顯市場背景改善以及我們資產基礎的品質。
Turning to the center chart, you can see our net interest grant debt, which now stands at USD894 million, and this corresponds to a net loan-to-value ratio of 25.1%, keeping us comfortably within the range we have maintained for many quarters.
再看中間圖表,可見我們的淨計息負債目前為8.94億美元,對應淨貸款價值比(LTV)25.1%,使我們仍舒適地維持在過去多個季度所保持的區間內。
This highlights the strength of our conservative capital structure.
這凸顯我們保守資本結構的強韌性。
Maintaining stable leverage at these levels provides us with significant financial flexibility, allowing us to pursue value-attritive opportunities as we have demonstrated this quarter, while at the same time preserving balance sheet resilience through microcycles.
在此水準維持穩定槓桿,為我們提供顯著的財務彈性,使我們能如本季所示追求具增值性的機會,同時也能在小週期波動中維持資產負債表的韌性。
Finally, on the right side, you see our debt maturity profile.
最後,在右側可看到我們的債務到期結構。
We have USD287 million in borrowings maturing over the next 12 months, and beyond that, maturities are modest and well-distributed across the subsequent years.
未來12個月內將有2.87億美元借款到期;其後到期金額不大,且在後續年度分布均衡。
Overall, our solid balance sheet positions us well to navigate current market conditions with confidence while preserving the ability to act decisively on attractive opportunities as they emerge.
整體而言,我們穩健的資產負債表使我們能有信心地因應當前市場狀況,同時保有在具吸引力的機會出現時果斷行動的能力。
And now, please turn to Slide 19. Where I will walk you through our outlook for 2026.
現在請翻到第19頁。我將帶各位了解我們對2026年的展望。
Based on the strong start to the year and the earnings visibility we now have in the near term, we are operating our full-year 2026 guidance.
基於今年強勁的開局,以及我們目前在短期內的獲利能見度,我們上調了2026年全年指引。
For the full year, we now expect TCE of USD1.15 billion to $1.45 billion, up from our previous guidance range from USD850 million to USD1,250 million.
就全年而言,我們目前預期TCE為11.5億至14.5億美元,高於先前8.5億至12.5億美元的指引區間。
At the same time, we upgrade our EBITDA guidance to USD800 million to USD1.1 billion, compared with the previous USD500 million to USD900 million.
同時,我們也將EBITDA指引上調至8億至11億美元,相較先前為5億至9億美元。
Bargain conditions have reached exceptionally strong levels in the second quarter, supported by tight tonnage balance and continued trade dislocations.
第二季的市場狀況已達到異常強勁的水準,受惠於運力供需緊俏以及貿易持續錯置。
As a result, we have already secured 57% of our earning days in Q2 at a feat-wide average of TCE. USD71,494 per day.
因此,我們已以船隊加權平均TCE每日71,494美元的水準,鎖定了第二季57%的營運天數。
A significant share of this quarter is therefore fixed at very attractive rate levels, providing a high degree of near-term earnings visibility.
因此,本季相當大一部分已在非常具吸引力的運價水準上固定,提供高度的短期獲利能見度。
This strong coverage gives us a very solid foundation for the year and reflects the positive function we have seen across all debtor segments.
這樣的高覆蓋率為全年奠定非常穩固的基礎,也反映我們在所有船型區隔所看到的正向動能。
Thus, this upgrade reflects two main factors. First. The strong earnings performance delivered in the first quarter, and second, the very strong coverage we have secured for the second quarter at rate levels that are unprecedented for the product tanker market.
因此,本次上調反映兩個主要因素。第一,第一季所交出的強勁獲利表現;第二,我們已為第二季在產品油輪市場前所未見的運價水準下取得非常強的覆蓋率。
For the unCOVID base, we have, as usual, used the forward derivatives market as a reference.
就未覆蓋部分而言,我們一如既往以遠期衍生品市場作為參考。
And as always, the updated guidance remains subject to market volatility, geopolitical developments, and potential changes in trade patterns, particularly as we move into the second-half of the year.
同樣地,更新後的指引仍可能受到市場波動、地緣政治發展以及貿易型態潛在變化的影響,特別是進入下半年之後。
That said, we believe our operated guidance probably reflects both the strengths of the current market backdrop and the visibility we have today.
儘管如此,我們認為此次上調後的指引大致反映了當前市場背景的強勢,以及我們目前所具備的能見度。
And with this, I will hand it back to the operator.
接下來我把時間交還給主持人。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press 1 again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening by a loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question.
謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。若您已撥入並希望提問,請在電話鍵盤按1舉手並加入隊列。若您想撤回問題,只需再按一次1。若輪到您提問且您正以裝置的擴音收聽,請拿起話筒,並在提問時確認電話未處於靜音狀態。
And your first question comes from the line of John Chappell with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
第一個問題來自Evercore ISI的John Chappell。您的線路已開通。
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon.
謝謝。午安。
Kim, I want to go back to the dividend slide. You mentioned it briefly, the 58% payout ratio, but would have been 83.5%.
Kim,我想回到股利那一頁。你簡單提到58%的配息率,但若不受影響本來會是83.5%。
Can you remind us what that difference was?
你能提醒我們這個差異是什麼造成的嗎?
And then if it's associated with the new builds, how do we think about the payout ratio? Going forward? Is it closer to this 58, which was the lowest payout ratio since 3Q22, or does it return something to that 80% range that it's been for much of the last three years?
另外,如果這與新造船有關,我們該如何看待未來的配息率?往後來看?它會更接近這次的58%(這是自2022年第三季以來最低的配息率),還是會回到過去三年大部分時間約80%的區間?
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Hi, John.
嗨,John。
Thank you very much for that question.
非常感謝你的提問。
What I tried to communicate was that when we saw the market rate increase during March.
我想表達的是,當我們在3月看到市場運價上升時,
We will have DSOs, freight days outstanding of around, let's say, 45 to 50 days. So meaning, so we booked the cargo, the fixing, but we will get the liquidity those days later.
我們的DSO(應收帳款週轉天數/運費未收天數)大約會在45到50天左右。也就是說,我們完成貨載與訂艙(fixing)的入帳,但要在那些天數之後才會收到現金。
So it means that we will not get the liquidity in the same month of March. We will get that booking in April as an example.
因此,這代表我們不會在3月當月就收到現金。舉例來說,我們會在4月才收到3月的那筆入帳所對應的款項。
So in that sense, we build up a networking capital.
所以在這個意義上,我們的營運資金會增加。
And if you add the increase in bunker prices, i.e. The effect on our bunker inventory, that in itself, those two in itself equated to around USD30 million, and that was why I added it to...
再加上燃油價格上升,也就是對我們燃油庫存的影響,這兩項合計約為3,000萬美元,這就是我把它加到……的原因。
To the earning, or sorry, to the dividend we paid out, and if you add that, you will get to the 80 to eighty-five percent, so it has nothing to do per se with the resales that we bought it is just a reflection of the networking capital build-up when markets react as they did over one month and then over 1/4 end where we report.
就收益而言,或者抱歉,就我們支付的股利而言,如果你把那個加進去,你就會到達80%到85%的區間,所以這本身與我們買入的轉售船並沒有關係;這只是反映了當市場在一個月內、以及我們在季末(1/4結束)進行報告時那樣反應時,營運資金的累積。
So does that mean that there's a catch-up, so to speak?
所以這是否意味著可以說有一個追補效應?
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
In the second quarter, assuming rates stabilized or maybe even pulled back a little bit from the highs? Does that net working capital then work in a favor, whereas the second quarter or maybe some quarter in the second-half, the ratio is well over the 80% to kind of make that timing even out?
在第二季,假設運價穩定,或者甚至從高點回落一些?那麼營運資金是否會轉而成為有利因素,使得第二季或下半年某個季度的比率會明顯高於80%,以便把時間差拉平?
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, exactly. I think you used to think about it. So say that things were steady now throughout the next quarter, you would get it back. Would it increase for, would rates increase further? You would probably tie up a bit more on networking counter. Would it decrease, you would get it even more released.
對,正是如此。我想你可以這樣理解。假設接下來一季情況都保持穩定,你就會把它拿回來。如果運價進一步上升呢?你可能會在營運資金上再多占用一些。如果運價下降,你就會釋放得更多。
So that's all it's, I'm just thinking about it.
所以就是這樣,我只是這麼想。
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
That's super important.
這非常重要。
Thank you for the clarification.
謝謝你的澄清。
And then Jacob, kind of strategic outlook, you talked about the opportunities. That you have, if there is a normalization.
然後 Jacob,從策略展望來看,你談到了機會。也就是如果出現正常化,你們所擁有的機會。
Also, just thinking about the strategy, you obviously bought the resales.
另外,從策略角度想,你們顯然買了轉售船。
There's been a lot of time charter activity, especially in the bigger ships, LR2s.
期租活動很多,尤其是在較大型的船舶上,像是 LR2。
Are you still kind of fully exposed to the spot market, or do you think there's some opportunity that some of these elevated levels and maybe some charters and traders reaching out for some term to, get some fixed cash flows for one to five years?
你們目前仍然算是完全暴露在現貨市場嗎?還是你認為在這些高檔水準下有一些機會,例如有些租家和貿易商會來談一些期租,以便鎖定一到五年的固定現金流?
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So we have done a few chartouts, one year, three-year. We've done some forward cover for next year on derivatives when markets were a little hard here. That's an efficient way of us to sort of capture value, protect the level, but still have, let's say, the operational.
是的。所以我們已經做了一些租出(charter-out),有一年期、三年期。當市場有點偏硬的時候,我們也透過衍生品為明年做了一些遠期覆蓋。那是我們捕捉價值、保護水準的一種有效方式,同時仍然保有,比如說,營運上的……
Flexibility on our assets. So we've been doing that the way you describe it. Of course, it's a trade-off between, as you can see, the elevated rate environment that we have currently and then the forward projection.
資產彈性。所以我們一直在用你所描述的方式去做。當然,這是在你看到的目前偏高的運價環境,與遠期預期之間的取捨。
But we like to do a little of all in this environment. So some a little shorter, one year, some a little longer, three years, and some. Somewhat forward, 2020 covering 2027 already now on some derivatives trades.
但在這種環境下,我們喜歡各種方式都做一點。所以有些較短的一年期,有些較長的三年期,還有一些。也有一些更偏遠期的——現在在某些衍生品交易上,已經做了2027年的覆蓋。
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
Jonathan Chappell - Analyst
One last one for me, sorry if this is too many.
我最後一個問題,抱歉如果太多了。
Obviously, the resales make sense in the framework of.
顯然,轉售船在……的框架下是合理的。
Modernizing the fleet.
船隊現代化。
You've been pretty active in some older vessel sales, and given the fact that older asset prices, at least on paper, seem to be even higher, it was maybe a little surprising that some of those resales weren't offset with older vessel disposition. So, is that just a function of trying to maintain as much leverage to the market as possible, or is the liquidity in the second-hand market for older vessels maybe not as robust as it's been recently?
你們在出售一些較老舊船舶方面一直相當積極,而且考量到老舊資產價格至少在紙面上看起來更高,沒有用出售老舊船舶來對沖部分轉售船的購入,可能有點令人意外。所以,這只是因為想盡可能維持對市場的槓桿曝險,還是二手市場對老舊船舶的流動性可能沒有最近看起來那麼強?
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Oh, I think definitely it's robust, but we've simply just done, yeah, done simple math.
喔,我認為流動性絕對是很強的,但我們只是做了——對,就是做了簡單的數學計算。
We feel that our balance sheet is in pristine shape as Kim alluded to. So I think we are of the opinion that the asset base we have have longevity and optionality and also the way the market behaves with quite high volatility, it means that. That can be attractive earnings in many scenarios that we look at going forward.
我們覺得我們的資產負債表狀況非常健全,正如 Kim 所提到的。所以我們的看法是,我們現有的資產基礎具有壽命與選擇權,而且市場表現出相當高的波動性,這意味著……在我們往前看、評估的許多情境下,都可能出現具吸引力的收益。
I think it's going to be volatile and chubby in many ways. We've seen that here over the first and second quarter. I think that will continue. But fundamentally, we believe that this is offering a lot of opportunity for our platform. But we do evaluate exactly as you described, John.
我認為它在很多方面都會是波動且偏緊的。我們在第一季和第二季已經看到了。我認為這會持續。但從基本面來看,我們相信這為我們的平台提供了很多機會。不過我們確實會像你描述的那樣精確評估,John。
What is the better sort of net present value that we will get, selling an asset or keeping it with the rate environment that we predict?
在我們預測的運價環境下,出售一項資產或保留它,哪一個能帶來更好的淨現值?
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Understood.
了解。
Thanks, Jacob. Thanks, Kim.
謝謝,Jacob。謝謝,Kim。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Frode Mortadal with Clarkson Securities. Your line is now open.
下一個問題來自 Clarkson Securities 的 Frode Mortadal。您的線路已開通。
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Hey guys, I wanted to follow-up on the acquisition of the six Mrs. I'm not sure if you talked about the price.
各位好,我想追問一下收購那六艘 MR 的事。我不確定你們是否談到價格。
Maybe you could talk about the price level versus, let's say, all the ships, right? That's probably how you thought about it.
也許你們可以談談這個價格水準相對於,比如說,所有船型的比較,對吧?你們大概就是這樣思考的。
Resale value in 27 versus somewhat older.
2027年的轉售價值相對於稍微老一些的船。
And yeah, that's it.
對,就這些。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
The way that we have come to the decision of the purchase of the six resale Mrs. Is exactly as you point to that we evaluate what is. The earning that we would be adding on various assets, and various age profiles in the coming years. We then also compare it. Maybe you could say there's three buckets that you could invest in. If you are looking to make an investment, it would be 15 ships on the water with, whatever age profile that you could dream up. It would be resale with relatively. Early delivery or it would be that you go to a shipyard and to complete new contracts, so new building contracts. And right now, what we found was that we did find kind of a gap where we saw the market being attractive from the pricing and timing of the delivery of these resales being better than paying. Let's say the same price for a deferred delivery out in three years out compared to having a resale three quarters out was just simply a better, more attractive solution for us and also better than identifying vessels underwater where prices, as also Jonathan pointed to, have been creeping up as of late.
我們之所以決定購買這六艘轉售 MR,正如你指出的,我們評估的是……我們在未來幾年、在不同資產與不同船齡結構上能增加的收益。我們會把各種資產、各種船齡結構在未來幾年的收益增量納入評估。然後我們也會做比較。也許可以說,你有三個投資桶可以選。如果你要投資,其一是買水上現成的船,船齡結構隨你想像。其二是轉售船,且相對……較早交付;其三是去船廠簽全新的合約,也就是新造船合約。而目前我們發現存在一個落差:從定價與交付時點來看,這些轉售船的市場更具吸引力,優於支付……比如說,同樣的價格去買三年後才交付的延後交付船;相較之下,三個季度後交付的轉售船對我們而言就是更好、更有吸引力的方案;同時也優於去找水上現成船,因為如 Jonathan 也提到的,近期價格一直在上升。
So, it's simple math that has driven us to that this price point and delivery point is, in our opinion, the better of the three choices if you are looking at it. And we found that this one also meet our return criteria for making the risk-adjusted return that we are looking for in any of our investments.
所以,驅動我們做出決定的就是簡單的數學:我們認為這個價格點與交付點,若你從三種選項來看,是更好的選擇。而且我們也發現,這筆交易符合我們的報酬標準,能達到我們在任何投資中所追求的風險調整後報酬。
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Yeah, interesting.
嗯,有意思。
What kind of risk just returns are you talking about? I mean, I understand it on your comments here. You basically are acquiring these ships, let's say, probably less than USD60 million, right, per ship, and then a five-year-old ship today is probably similar level, right? So you're arguing that you get more modern, better ships at the same price, something like that, right?
你們說的風險與報酬大概是什麼概念?我的意思是,我理解你們剛才的評論。你們基本上是在收購這些船,假設每艘大概低於6,000萬美元,對吧?而今天一艘五年船齡的船大概也是類似水準,對吧?所以你們的論點是,你用同樣的價格買到更現代、更好的船,大概是這樣,對吧?
And then maybe you could tie it into the required Mr. Rate to get the return on it.
然後也許你可以把它連結到所需的 MR……運價,才能在上面取得報酬。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Sure, yeah. So, I mean, we don't disclose our forward thinking, but the way we model it is exactly the way you more or less describe it, we would of course put in...
當然,可以。所以,我們不會揭露我們的前瞻性假設,但我們建模的方式基本上就是你或多或少描述的那樣;我們當然會把……納入。
Yeah, let's say financing, our operating cost, et cetera, and at the end of the day, we would then compare with our earning potential. And I think to say that in our modeling, we probably look at about five years out, and then we'll look at sort of a residual risk basis, exactly what you also described, what would be a five-year-old residual. Sort of market value at that point in time.
是的,假設是融資、我們的營運成本等等,最後我們會再拿來和我們的獲利潛力做比較。而我想在我們的模型中,我們大概會看五年後的情況,然後會以某種殘餘風險的基礎來看,正如你所描述的,五年後的殘值會是什麼。也就是當時的市場價值。
And what I then described is that in the hurdle on that return on that invested capital is, of course, internal for us, but this way of making the investment exceeds our sort of hurdle for believing that that's a good investment.
而我剛才描述的是,對於投入資本報酬率的門檻,當然是我們內部設定的;但以這種方式進行投資,其回報會超過我們的門檻,因此我們相信這是一項好的投資。
So we think it's a good investment for our shareholders and that is an asset. That would be appreciated, obviously, by our customers at the time.
所以我們認為這對股東而言是一項好的投資,而且這是一項資產。而且在當時,顯然也會受到我們客戶的肯定。
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Yeah, understood.
好的,了解。
Yeah, you probably have a $60 million investment. You probably only need like twenty-three 1,000 a day over time to get like a...
是的,你可能有一筆6,000萬美元的投資。隨著時間推移,你可能只需要每天大概二十三個1,000(單位)就能達到像是……
10% to 12% return or something like that, right?
10%到12%的報酬率之類的,對吧?
Anyway, shifting gears on the market, I wanted to hear your thoughts on the drivers here. Okay, it's been very strong start to Q2, right? Maybe you could talk a little bit about the trade flow adjustments, right? You've seen refineries closing down, obviously, in the Middle East, but also in Asia.
總之,轉到市場面,我想聽聽你對這裡驅動因素的看法。好的,第二季開局非常強勁,對吧?也許你可以談談貿易流向的調整,對吧?你看到煉油廠關閉,顯然在中東,但在亞洲也有。
And now has come up and some stuff exports and clearly adding to, but then again, at the same time, you've seen come off the boil, so to speak, recently. Maybe you could talk a bit a little bit about how you think rates will develop now in the short-term, or do you think like...
而現在又出現了一些出口,顯然帶來了增量;但同時,最近又有點降溫了,可以這麼說。也許你可以談談你認為短期內運價會如何發展,或者你覺得像是……
There's more normalization, the rates, or could I say subtle or final above them now.
運價會更趨於正常化,還是我可以說現在會略微或最終高於目前水準。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, okay, so as you point to, then this is, so dislocation of the sourcing for many buyers have led to longer time. We've already discussed that is, that also translated into.
好的,如你所指出的,這是——許多買家的採購來源出現錯位,導致運輸時間拉長。我們之前已經討論過,這也轉化為……
Higher margins for our customers, it translated into higher freight rates for ourselves and the ecosystem of transportation. And just recently, we've seen that the, I think, all freight rates is driven by our customers and basically by how the arbitrages work. And you had a period where the arbitrage, west to east, was wide open.
客戶的利潤率更高,也轉化為我們自身以及整個運輸生態系的更高運費。而就在最近,我們看到我認為所有運費其實都是由客戶驅動,基本上取決於套利如何運作。你曾經有一段時間,西向東的套利空間完全打開。
Obviously leading to that when the ARP is open, the customers in, let's say, in Asia or Australia, East Africa, these areas that would normally be looking towards the Middle East for their supply, they were beating up cargos that were available in the Western hemisphere. This has come off a little.
這顯然導致當套利(ARP)打開時,像是亞洲或澳洲、東非等地區的客戶,原本通常會向中東尋求供應,卻轉而搶購西半球可供的貨物。這種情況已經稍微降溫了一些。
Right now, there's been a period where our.
目前,有一段時間我們的……
Understanding is that the end users have been a little more reluctant. I think they've been looking at the situation in this rate of a movement sort of value and, hey, if we get cargo out there, it's going to come faster and it's going to come cheaper. So maybe let's just cool the jets a little. So margins have come in less attractive. And of course, then volumes come down because the.
理解是終端用戶變得稍微更為觀望。我想他們一直在看這種運價變動的情況,並認為:嘿,如果我們把貨發出去,會更快到、也會更便宜。所以也許先稍微踩一下煞車。因此利潤率變得沒那麼吸引人。當然,接著量就會下來,因為……
Sellers of the product will then have also competing areas, more local areas, that will also make a call on exactly the same tons of products.
產品的賣方也會有其他競爭區域、更在地的區域,同樣會對完全相同的產品噸位提出需求。
Let's see what I think one or two would happen in the near term. Either this rate of moves actually opens and cargo volumes will increase and flow through the strait due to that. If it doesn't, I think the call on. Products from the Western Hemisphere to the Eastern Hemisphere will yet again increase, margins will widen again, and you'll see that trade. That is how I think that's the most likely that one of these two scenarios play out. The current, where there's no, let's say, cold on products from either trade or most because it's impossible, or from the West because the margins are not.
我認為短期內可能會發生一兩件事。要嘛這種運價變動的情況真的打開,貨量就會增加,並因此流經海峽。如果沒有,我認為……從西半球到東半球的產品需求會再次增加,利潤率會再度擴大,你就會看到那樣的貿易。我認為最可能就是這兩種情境之一會發生。目前這種狀態——也就是不論是因為貿易因素而無法,或是因為西方的利潤率不……
They have a sufficiently high.
夠高——我不認為這會是長期趨勢。
I don't think that is a long-term trend.
我不認為那是長期趨勢。
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Frode Morkedal - Analyst
Okay, interesting.
好的,很有意思。
Thanks for the good color. That's it for me.
謝謝你提供很好的說明。我這邊就到這裡。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Bendick Folden.
下一個問題來自 Bendick Folden。
From Bank Bank, your line is now open.
來自 Bank Bank,您的線路已開通。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yes, thank you. I'll just turn to your for the second quarter, obviously extremely strong, but I want to know if there's any effects we should be aware of here, sort of unpaid balance base, anything like that, some quite mess up or modeling on the quarter?
是的,謝謝。我想就第二季來問,顯然非常強勁,但我想知道這裡是否有任何我們需要留意的影響,例如某種未付的平衡基礎(unpaid balance base)之類的,或任何會讓本季數字或建模變得有點失真的因素?
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Kim Balle - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
On faster stress, we use the methodology here, so we take Q1 and we take the coverage that we have for Q2, and then we have the, as I said, to the forward market to take that as the benchmark, so...
關於前瞻性壓力測試(forward stress),我們在這裡使用的方法是:我們取第一季,並取我們對第二季的覆蓋(coverage),然後如我所說,再用遠期市場作為基準,所以……
You should not sort of see it necessarily as this is how we foresee the markets month by month.
你不應該把它理解為我們如何逐月預測市場。
We very much use it on the four freight markets.
我們非常明確是用在遠期運費市場上。
See, that we observe the market. Of course, we have the two, but then the on six days is based on...
也就是我們觀察到的市場。當然,我們有兩個(來源/部分),但接著那個六天(on six days)是基於……
I hope that clarifies it, so...
希望這能釐清,所以……
So it's a guidance that we are obliged to present an update and we have to find this methodology and perhaps I should add that we do that and then we stress it with a plus minus TC around that for this quarter it's plus minus [7,500]. It's very methodology of mathematically easy to both explain and understand, but that's how we do it.
這是一項我們必須提供更新的指引(guidance),而且我們必須採用這套方法;也許我應該補充,我們會這樣做,然後再以此為基礎用TC(期租等值)做正負壓力測試,本季是正負[7,500]。這套方法在數學上很容易,既容易解釋也容易理解,但我們就是這樣做的。
So change in the model for that.
所以模型沒有因此而改變。
That would make sense.
這樣就說得通了。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
For the second quarter, specifically, utilization-wise, has it been like some unpaid balancing or something like that?
就第二季而言,特別是在利用率方面,有沒有像是一些未付的平衡(unpaid balancing)之類的情況?
Yeah, so there's nothing that distracts the numbers as you point to pay next. So the numbers for Q2 includes balanced. When and if this has had to have a longer balance prior to the employment. So all of our numbers includes the previous just like included in the daily years.
是的,所以沒有任何因素會像你提到的那樣干擾數字。所以第二季的數字包含了平衡(ballast)。而當且如果在受僱(employment)之前需要更長的壓艙/平衡航程。所以我們所有的數字都包含前一段,就像已經包含在日租金(daily rates)裡一樣。
Thank you. You're welcome.
謝謝。不客氣。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Jacob for closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Jacob 做結語。
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jacob Meldgaard - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Well, thank you very much.
好的,非常感謝。
It's been very good questions. Thanks for listening in. And this is the one 2026 report performed.
問題都非常好。感謝各位收聽。以上是2026年第一季報告的說明。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。