Torm PLC (TRMD) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining TORM plc Third Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加 TORM plc 2021 年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Andreas Abildgaard-Hein. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給安德烈亞斯·阿比德加德·海因 (Andreas Abildgaard-Hein)。請繼續。

Thank you, and thank you for dialing in. And welcome to TORM's conference call regarding the results for third quarter of 2021. My name is Andreas Abildgaard-Hein, and I'm Head of Investor Relations in TORM. As usual, we will refer to the slides as we speak. And at the end of the presentation, we will open up for questions.

謝謝您，也謝謝您撥打電話。像往常一樣，我們將在發言時參考幻燈片。在演示結束時，我們將開放提問。

Please turn to Slide 2. Before commencing, I would like to draw your attention to the safe harbor statement.

請翻到投影片 2。

Please turn to Slide 3. The results will be presented by Executive Director and CEO, Jacob Meldgaard; and CFO, Kim Balle. I will now hand the call over to Jacob.

請參閱投影片 3。和財務長金·貝爾。我現在將電話轉交給雅各。

Yes. Thank you, Andreas, and please turn to Slide 4. Thank you all for dialing in this afternoon. I'm really thrilled to be here today as we've now published our results for the third quarter of 2021, as already mentioned by Andreas. And here, in the third quarter, we were still impacted by the market downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has, in general, lowered the global demand for oil products. And our third quarter ended with an EBITDA of USD 30 million and a loss before tax of $14 million. And here, the return on invested capital ended at minus 0.9%.

是的。謝謝您，Andreas，請翻到投影片 4。我很高興今天能來到這裡，因為正如 Andreas 已經提到的，我們現在已經發布了 2021 年第三季的業績。在第三季度，我們仍然受到 COVID-19 大流行造成的市場低迷的影響。整體而言，這降低了全球對石油產品的需求。我們第三季的 EBITDA 為 3,000 萬美元，稅前虧損為 1,400 萬美元。在這裡，投資資本報酬率為-0.9%。

The product tanker fleet in TORM realized an average TCE rate of $12,854 per day. And this was generally well supported by our largest segment, the MRs, where the achieved rates were $12,785 per day.

TORM 的成品油輪船隊的平均 TCE 費率為每天 12,854 美元。我們最大的細分市場 MR 普遍支持了這一點，該細分市場的費率達到每天 12,785 美元。

Now looking into the fourth quarter of this year, we have so far secured bookings at $12,985 in a market that is showing clear signs of a recovery, especially in the West. We also now successfully integrated all of the Team Tanker vessels and the modern LR2 scrubber-fitted vessels we acquired earlier this year. And here, since the end of the quarter, we additionally secured operational lease financing for 9 of our existing MR vessels, with a sale and leaseback arrangement that will generate an increased liquidity of $76 million.

現在展望今年第四季度，迄今為止，我們在一個顯示出明顯復甦跡象的市場（尤其是西方市場）中獲得了 12,985 美元的預訂。我們現在也成功整合了所有 Team Tanker 船和我們今年稍早購買的配備洗滌器的現代 LR2 船。自本季末以來，我們也為 9 艘現有 MR 船舶獲得了營運租賃融資，並透過售後回租安排增加了 7,600 萬美元的流動性。

Now kindly turn to the next slide, to Slide 5, please. The product tanker market, as I said, was challenged here in the third quarter, and MR benchmark rates touched actually multiyear lows at the start of the quarter. Despite the significant progress with the vaccine rollout here in Europe and also in the U.S., that had a positive effect on mobility and also on oil demand recovery in the West. But an outbreak of the more transmittable Delta virus in Southeast Asia led to renewed lockdowns in that region and subsequently, lower demand for product imports.

現在請翻到下一張投影片，即投影片 5。正如我所說，成品油輪市場在第三季度受到挑戰，MR 基準利率在本季初實際上觸及多年低點。儘管歐洲和美國的疫苗推廣取得了重大進展，但這對西方的流動性和石油需求復甦產生了積極影響。但東南亞爆發了傳染性更強的三角洲病毒，導致該地區重新實施封鎖，導致產品進口需求下降。

Here in the second half of the quarter, we also experienced that Hurricane Ida closed down several of the refineries in the U.S. Gulf. They were off-line and that resulted in lower product exports from that region. This was further aggravated by the weak crude tanker market throughout the quarter that also led to an increase in the crude cannibalization, which we have also seen in previous times of lower freight rates.

在本季的後半段，我們也經歷了颶風艾達關閉了美國海灣的幾家煉油廠。它們離線，導致該地區的產品出口減少。整個季度原油油輪市場疲軟進一步加劇了這種情況，這也導致原油拆解增加，我們在先前的運費較低時期也看到過這種情況。

Please turn to Slide 6. In recent months, we've seen relatively robust improvements in the global oil demand, which have resulted in drawdowns of the excess inventories built up in the first half of last year. However, the recovery in demand has not been met by correspondent increases in supply, resulting in a situation where oil inventories have continued to be drawn down and, in some regions, to levels which are even below pre-COVID-19 lows.

請看幻燈片6。然而，需求的復甦並沒有得到相應的供應增加的滿足，導致石油庫存持續減少，在一些地區，甚至低於 COVID-19 之前的低點。

Much of the supply tightness is actually artificial. It results from OPEC+ having crude oil production quotas that are ramped up only gradually, and they have not been sufficient to meet demand growth. As long as supply growth remains below the demand growth, we'll continue logically to see stock draws. We expect the inflection point to be reached over the first quarter of next year with OPEC+'s gradual supply increases coinciding with seasonal slowdown in oil demand growth. However, this inflection point could be reached earlier if OPEC+ would react to the current political pressure from a number of large oil importing countries in the wake of high oil prices and release more oil to the market. It is also important to mention here that with inventories being drawn down to so low levels, inventories will need to be built up again at some point, which will then act as a demand boost to tanker demand in addition to more normal trade flows.

供應緊張實際上很大程度上是人為的。這是由於OPEC+的原油產量配額只是逐步增加，不足以滿足需求成長。只要供應成長仍低於需求成長，我們就會繼續邏輯地看到庫存減少。我們預計拐點將在明年第一季達到，OPEC+ 的供應逐步增加，同時石油需求成長季節性放緩。然而，如果OPEC+能夠對當前高油價後一些石油進口大國的政治壓力做出反應，並向市場釋放更多石油，那麼這個拐點可能會更早達到。這裡還需要指出的是，隨著庫存降至如此低的水平，庫存將需要在某個時候再次增加，這除了更正常的貿易流動之外，還將刺激油輪需求。

As already mentioned, we've seen significant progress with vaccination rates in the West, which has allowed countries to keep their societies and economies open even as COVID-19 cases have moved higher. Even though many emerging economies in Asia are still lagging behind in terms of vaccination rates, significant improvements have occurred recently. Which makes me confident to believe that large-scale mobility restrictions as a political tool will be less prevalent even if new waves of infections should occur, as the political willingness to let the virus coexist has been increasing and the obstacles on transportation fuel demand recovery are largely being removed.

正如已經提到的，我們看到西方疫苗接種率取得了顯著進展，這使得各國能夠在 COVID-19 病例數上升的情況下保持社會和經濟開放。儘管亞洲許多新興經濟體在疫苗接種率方面仍然落後，但最近已顯著改善。這讓我有信心相信，即使出現新一波感染浪潮，作為政治工具的大規模流動限制也不會那麼普遍，因為讓病毒共存的政治意願不斷增強，交通燃料需求復甦的障礙也越來越多。

Here, the demand for jet fuel is still lagging behind, especially when it comes to the international travel. But also here, we are starting to see more signs of improvement with the U.S. having recently reopened international flights, and as an example, Singapore easing travel restrictions to visitors from an increasing number of countries, with several other Asian countries planning to do the same. Furthermore, we also see that the potential gas-to-oil substitution amid the current natural gas shortage can give a further boost to oil demand over the winter.

在這裡，航空燃油的需求仍然滯後，特別是在國際旅行方面。但同樣在這裡，我們開始看到更多改善的跡象，美國最近重新開放了國際航班，例如，新加坡放寬了對越來越多國家遊客的旅行限制，其他幾個亞洲國家也計劃這樣做。此外，我們也看到，在當前天然氣短缺的情況下，潛在的天然氣對石油的替代可能會進一步提振冬季的石油需求。

Please turn to the next slide, to Slide 7. Part of the recent supply tightness has been due to the effect of the forementioned Hurricane Ida on the U.S. crude production and refinery runs, hence, having a more temporary nature. Hurricane Ida shaved off around 20% of U.S. Gulf refinery runs and product exports, but also resulted in significant product inventory draws in the U.S. East Coast, which needs to be built up again, hence, supporting transportation demand going forward.

請翻到下一張投影片，即投影片 7。颶風「艾達」削減了美國海灣煉油廠約 20% 的產能和產品出口，但也導緻美國東海岸大量產品庫存減少，需要重新建立庫存，以支持未來的運輸需求。

Here, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen a strong pickup in the product tanker freight rates in the U.S. Gulf as refiners are coming back from Hurricane Ida-related outages and plant maintenance, resulting in strong recovery in clean product exports. We're well positioned to take advantage of the increasing exports from the U.S. Gulf with about 1/4 -- 25%, 30% of our MR fleet located in the Americas. Spot rates for the largest segment, for LR2s, has also been on the rise. And TCEs are as of late, above $20,000 per day for modern units.

在過去的幾周里，隨著煉油廠從颶風「艾達」相關的停運和工廠維護中恢復過來，我們看到美國海灣的成品油輪運費強勁回升，導致清潔產品出口強勁復甦。我們處於有利位置，可以充分利用美國海灣地區不斷增長的出口，我們的 MR 機隊約有 1/4 - 25%、30% 位於美洲。最大部分 LR2 的現貨價格也在上漲。現代單位的 TCE 最近已超過每天 20,000 美元。

Please turn to Slide 8. To sum up on the main demand drivers influencing the market, we can see that significant progress has been made from where we stood a year ago. And although in many cases, we are not back to pre-COVID-19 levels yet, the outlook for the next 12 months indicates further improvements, not least due to increasing vaccination rates that will be supportive of oil demand recovery. There's also the increasing OPEC crude supply and global refinery runs, and last but not least, the need to rebuild depleted stocks in oil-consuming areas.

請參閱投影片 8。儘管在許多情況下，我們尚未回到 COVID-19 之前的水平，但未來 12 個月的前景表明情況將進一步改善，尤其是由於疫苗接種率的提高將支持石油需求的復甦。此外，歐佩克原油供應不斷增加，全球煉油廠開工，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，需要重建石油消費地區已枯竭的庫存。

And here, please turn to Slide 9. When we look at the more medium- and long-term demand drivers, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the pace of refinery closures, with 2.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity having closed down or set to close and another 1 million barrels per day potentially being shut down. Most of this capacity is located in regions which are already large importers of refined oil products, such as Europe, U.S. West Coast, U.S. East Coast, Australia, New Zealand, and also South Africa.

在這裡，請轉向幻燈片 9。每天可能關閉100 萬桶。大部分產能位於已經是成品油進口大國的地區，如歐洲、美國西岸、美國東岸、澳洲、紐西蘭和南非。

If we focus then on Australia and New Zealand, especially, the closures are of significant importance with 2 out of 4 refineries in Australia and a sole remaining refinery in New Zealand closing down. At the same time, more than 4 million barrels per day of new capacity is scheduled to come online, mainly in the Middle East and China, regions which already today are exporters of oil products. Both these developments are positive for trade flows and ton mile in the post-COVID-19 world, with only a few projects that are less positive for trade.

如果我們特別關注澳洲和紐西蘭，關閉具有重大意義，澳洲四分之二的煉油廠和紐西蘭僅存的一家煉油廠關閉。同時，計劃投產超過400萬桶/日的新產能，主要集中在中東和中國，這些地區目前已經是石油產品的出口國。這兩項發展對於後 COVID-19 世界的貿易流動和噸英里都有積極作用，只有少數項目對貿易的積極作用較小。

Slide 10, please. Our positive outlook for the demand for product tankers over the coming 3 to 5 years coincides with the supply side, which is the most supportive for at least 25 years. In the third quarter, ordering of product and crude tankers combined was at the second-lowest quarterly level for 20 years, reflecting the record high newbuilding prices, the limited shipyard space after record high container vessel ordering activity seen earlier in the year. Consequently, the order book-to-fleet ratio for product tankers remained at a historical low level of 7%, further supported by a similarly historical low 8% order book-to-fleet ratio for the crude tankers.

請投影片 10。我們對未來 3 至 5 年成品油輪需求的樂觀預期與供應面一致，這是至少 25 年來最強的支撐。第三季度，成品油輪和原油油輪的訂單合計處於20年來第二低的季度水平，反映出新造船價格創歷史新高，以及今年早些時候貨櫃船訂單活動創歷史新高後造船廠空間有限。因此，成品油輪訂單與船隊比率保持在 7% 的歷史低位，原油油輪訂單與船隊比率類似的歷史低點 8% 進一步支撐了這一水平。

Now on the other hand, the pickup in scrap prices have incentivized increased scrapping of product tankers, with more tonnage being removed from the market year to date than during any full year in the past 10 years. These 2 drivers are further supporting the case of a very modest fleet growth in the next 2 to 3 years, which we expect to be around 2% a year, only half the pace seen in the past 5 years.

另一方面，現在廢鋼價格的上漲刺激了成品油輪報廢量的增加，今年迄今從市場上拆除的噸位比過去十年中任何一年都多。這兩個驅動因素進一步支持了未來 2 至 3 年機隊成長非常溫和的情況，我們預計每年增長 2% 左右，僅為過去 5 年增速的一半。

Now in my concluding remarks on the product tanker market, we expect improvements in the key market drivers for the next 12 months, with more oil supply coming to the market at the same time as the impact of mobility restrictions on global oil demand is fading. The need to rebuild depleted crude and product inventories is adding extra support to the market. And seen over a medium and long term, refinery dislocation, the low order book that I mentioned, that is still supportive to the product tanker market.

現在，在我對成品油輪市場的總結性發言中，我們預計未來12 個月的主要市場驅動因素將有所改善，隨著流動性限制對全球石油需求的影響逐漸減弱，更多的石油供應將進入市場。重建枯竭的原油和產品庫存的需求正在為市場提供額外的支撐。從中長期來看，煉油廠的混亂，我提到的低訂單量，仍然對成品油輪市場構成支撐。

Please turn to Slide 11. Now looking at TORM's commercial performance. We have outperformed the peer average in 24 out of the last 26 quarters in our largest segment, the MRs. And here, as I mentioned, in the third quarter of 2021, we achieved rates of $12,785 per day. And here, unfortunately, we do not yet have our peers' performance to compare against. In general, I am very satisfied that our One TORM platform continues to deliver significant above-market results on a day-to-day basis.

請看投影片11。在我們最大的細分市場 MR 領域，過去 26 個季度中，我們有 24 個季度的表現優於同業平均值。正如我所提到的，2021 年第三季度，我們實現了每天 12,785 美元的費率。不幸的是，我們還沒有同行的表現可供比較。總的來說，我對我們的 One TORM 平台每天繼續提供顯著高於市場的結果感到非常滿意。

Please turn to Slide 12. And here, you will see a key deciding factor for delivering this above-average TCE is driven by our continued focus on positioning our vessels in the basins with the highest earning potential. In the third quarter of 2021, we had an overweight east of the Suez, where we also saw an outperformance when looking at the full quarter.

請前往投影片 12。 2021 年第三季度，我們對蘇伊士運河以東地區進行了增持，從整個季度來看，我們也看到了該地區的表現優異。

Now I'll hand over to my colleague, Kim, for further elaboration on our cost structure, liquidity position and balance sheet. Over to you, Kim.

現在我將交給我的同事 Kim 進一步闡述我們的成本結構、流動性狀況和資產負債表。交給你了，金。

Thank you, Jacob. Please turn to Slide 13. TORM has a constant focus on operating expenses. Since the origination of the pandemic, COVID-19 has introduced new challenges to ship operators, primarily driven by logistic challenges. During 2020, operating expenses increased from 2019. But because of our One TORM platform, we have managed to reduce expenses to $6,467 per day in the third quarter of 2021. Looking at the first 3 quarters of '21, OpEx per day has increased 3% compared to 2019. But when corrected for COVID-19-related crew expenses, OpEx per day has been reduced by 1%.

謝謝你，雅各。請參閱投影片 13。自疫情爆發以來，COVID-19 給船舶營運商帶來了新的挑戰，主要是由物流挑戰推動的。 2020 年期間，營運費用較2019 年有所增加。的營運支出增加了 3與 2019 年相比。

Slide 14, please. TORM has consistently, through our performance-generated liquidity, to renew and increase the fleet to the now largest number of vessels ever. This has been done while maintaining a stable and conservative capital structure over time. After the end of the third quarter, TORM has successfully obtained commitment from a Chinese financial institution for the sale and operational leaseback of 9 MR vessels, which will generate liquidity of $76 million and which will further provide TORM with the optionality to buy the vessels during and at the end of the leasing period, if we deem that to be attractive.

請幻燈片 14。 TORM 始終如一地透過我們的績效產生的流動性來更新和增加船隊，使其數量達到有史以來的最大數量。這是在長期保持穩定和保守的資本結構的情況下完成的。第三季末後，TORM已成功獲得一家中國金融機構的9艘MR船舶的出售和營運回租承諾，這將產生7,600萬美元的流動資金，這將進一步為TORM提供在期間購買船舶的選擇權。在租賃期結束時，如果我們認為這具有吸引力。

Please turn to Slide 15. As of 30 September 2021, TORM had available liquidity of $186 million. Cash totaled $110 million, and we had undrawn credit facilities of $76 million. The total cash CapEx commitments relating to newbuildings were $78 million as per 30 September 2021. With TORM's strong liquidity profile, the CapEx commitments are fully funded.

請參閱投影片 15。現金總額為 1.1 億美元，未提取的信貸額度為 7,600 萬美元。截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，與新造船相關的現金資本支出承諾總額為 7,800 萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 16. After having finalized the larger refinancing in 2020, we have eliminated all major refinancing up until 2026, which provides TORM with financial and strategic flexibility to pursue value-enhancing opportunities in the market. As displayed, we do not have any major repayments until after 2025.

請參閱投影片 16。如圖所示，直到 2025 年之後我們才會有任何重大還款。

Further, we have, in the third quarter, secured stability in our interest rate expenses by increasing our interest rate hedge levels to approximately 75% on average over the coming 5 years. TORM's new sale and leaseback agreements are expected to add $1.6 million per year to the debt repayment schedule.

此外，在第三季度，我們將未來 5 年的平均利率對沖水準提高至約 75%，確保了利率支出的穩定。 TORM 的新售後回租協議預計每年將為債務償還計劃增加 160 萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 16 (sic) [Slide 17]. I would now like to sum up our financial position in terms of key metrics, such as net asset value and loan-to-value. The value of TORM's vessels, including newbuildings, was just below $1.9 billion by the end of the quarter. Outstanding gross debt amounted to $1.053 billion as of 30th September 2021. And as mentioned, TORM's sale and leaseback of 9 MR vessels will add USD 76 million to the outstanding debt.

請參閱投影片 16（原文如此）[投影片 17]。我現在想根據資產淨值和貸款價值比等關鍵指標來總結我們的財務狀況。截至本季末，TORM 船舶（包括新造船）的價值略低於 19 億美元。截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，未償債務總額達 10.53 億美元。

All in all, we have a strong and attractive price debt structure with reputable banks and leasing institutions, and we have, hence, demonstrated our strong access to diversified funding sources in the market. We are very satisfied with our debt position.

總而言之，我們與信譽良好的銀行和租賃機構擁有強大且有吸引力的價格債務結構，因此，我們展示了我們在市場上獲得多元化融資來源的強大管道。我們對我們的債務狀況非常滿意。

Finally, as of 30 September 2021, we had outstanding committed CapEx of $78 million related to our newbuilding program. And as mentioned, our cash position was $110 million. The net asset value was at $938 million as per 30 September 2021, which corresponds to $11.6 or DKK 74.5 per share. And just before commencing this call, TORM shares were trading at just above DKK 50. I'm pleased that our conservative balance sheet supports our strategic flexibility as well as our financial strength.

最後，截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，我們與新造船項目相關的未償承諾資本支出為 7,800 萬美元。如前所述，我們的現金部位為 1.1 億美元。截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，淨值為 9.38 億美元，相當於每股 11.6 美元或 74.5 丹麥克朗。就在開始本次電話會議之前，TORM 股票的交易價格略高於 50 丹麥克朗。

With that, I will let the operator open up for questions.

接下來，我將讓接線員開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Joe Kapoor (sic) [Jon Chappell] from Evercore.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Joe Kapoor（原文如此）[Jon Chappell]。

This is actually Sean Morgan on for Jon Chappell. So just housekeeping items on the Chinese leaseback. So I was just wondering what was the gross amount borrowed for the 2 separate MR facility and the LR2 facility? Because I think you mentioned the kind of net liquidity raise, but there's probably some offsetting-related debt paydowns. So I'm just kind of wondering what the growth was. Hello?

這實際上是肖恩摩根（Sean Morgan）為喬恩查佩爾（Jon Chappell）配音。所以只是中國回租中的家事用品。所以我只是想知道 2 個單獨的 MR 設施和 LR2 設施的借款總額是多少？因為我認為你提到了淨流動性增加的情況，但可能還有一些與抵銷相關的債務償還。所以我只是想知道成長是什麼。你好？

Thanks for raising the question. So I'll hand it to Kim. So...

感謝您提出問題。所以我會把它交給金。所以...

Yes. So the -- I will answer like the LTV for the sale and leaseback financing is 100%. So it's -- I'll just get the number here. It is, 2 seconds, USD 167 million, to answer your question.

是的。所以——我會回答，售後回租融資的 LTV 是 100%。所以——我會在這裡拿到號碼。 2秒，1.67億美元，回答你的問題。

Okay. So that's for both the LR -- oh, okay. Sorry, go ahead. That's for the LR2s and the MRs, both facilities?

好的。這對 LR 來說都是如此——哦，好吧。抱歉，請繼續。這是 LR2 和 MR 的設備嗎？

No, the MRs. No, for the MRs, the 9 MRs.

不，先生們。不，對於 MR，是 9 名 MR。

Okay. For the 9 MRs, great, $167 million, okay. And then so on Slide 7, you talked about just the kind of -- maybe it's a new pattern or maybe it's just kind of a recent phenomenon. But just the number of natural, weather-related disruptions to refining in the U.S. And so I'm just wondering if this is a pattern we're going to be seeing kind of recurring.

好的。對於 9 名 MR，太棒了，1.67 億美元，好吧。然後在投影片 7 上，您談到了這種情況——也許這是一種新模式，也可能只是最近出現的一種現象。但只是美國煉油過程中與天氣相關的自然中斷的數量而已，所以我只是想知道這種模式是否會反覆出現。

Is there any trading volatility or arbs that sort of arise to sort of offset some of the negative impact of refinery outages? Or should we just kind of look at that as just kind of a market negative whenever it happens?

是否會出現任何交易波動或套利，以抵消煉油廠停駛的一些負面影響？或者，每當這種情況發生時，我們是否應該將其視為一種市場負面影響？

I think it depends a lot on the duration of the outage. And what was a little different with Hurricane Ida was that I think that the industry, the energy complex at large in the U.S. Coast was well prepared. As usual, for safety measures, you close down. However, when you then had assessed if there were any repairs, et cetera, to come back into operation, the issue here was actually not so much physical on the refining side, but it was that there were a lack of electricity to turn it back on.

我認為這在很大程度上取決於停電的持續時間。與颶風艾達略有不同的是，我認為美國海岸的整個產業和能源綜合體已經做好了充分的準備。像往常一樣，為了安全措施，你會關閉。然而，當你評估是否需要進行任何維修等才能恢復運行時，這裡的問題實際上並不是精煉方面的物理問題，而是缺乏電力來將其恢復運行。

So I think that was a bit unusual. I would expect in the future these outages to be more short term, i.e., you close it down and then you sort of turn the switch back on within a relatively short time frame. That is our understanding of this. So the difference here was actually the duration of -- the duration impact that you had.

所以我認為這有點不尋常。我預計將來這些中斷將是更短期的，即您將其關閉，然後在相對較短的時間內重新打開開關。這是我們對此的理解。所以這裡的區別實際上是你所產生的影響的持續時間。

Okay. So the duration kind of, I guess, made it worse. And then just -- you talked about the order book being pretty favorable. And I guess, favorable-r, but the mid low rates is something you might expect. But how responsive do you think the order book would be to kind of resurgence and an improvement in product tanker rates? Do you think there's a lot of sort of latent demand that could come to the fore if the market starts to improve? Or do you expect that kind of regardless of future rates, that you'll see conservatism?

好的。所以我想，持續時間會讓情況變得更糟。然後，您談到訂單簿非常有利。我想，有利的-r，但中低利率是你可能期望的。但您認為訂單簿對成品油輪運價的復甦和改善有何反應？您認為如果市場開始好轉，是否會出現許多潛在需求？或者您期望無論未來利率如何，您都會看到保守主義？

Yes, that's a great question, Sean, because obviously, in history we have seen that, as you point to, if freight rates, they increased, that ship owners and investors respond immediately and then fill the void sort of, and go and order a bunch of ships. And this time around, what is surely quite supportive when we get -- when we turn the corner and freight rates are improving further from what they've already done, then the lead time to ordering is today at least 2 to 3 years. And even in that scenario, I think that it's very clear that currently, shipyards really favor different types of assets to be built.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，肖恩，因為顯然，在歷史上我們已經看到，正如你所指出的，如果運費上漲，船東和投資者會立即做出反應，然後填補空白，然後去訂購一堆船。這一次，當我們渡過難關並且運費比他們已經做到的進一步提高時，肯定會帶來相當大的支持，那麼今天的訂購週期至少為 2 到 3 年。即使在這種情況下，我認為很明顯，目前造船廠確實傾向於建造不同類型的資產。

So I don't think even a strong and longer period of elevated rates would not immediately mean that you will have a very responsive ordering. Obviously, this is -- that we're not talking quarters but years, then it will be a different matter. Because then the whole ecosystem of -- also of shipbuilders and investors will find ways to get the contracts done. But sort of in the very immediate future, I see the likelihood being low of a lot of new contracting taking place.

因此，我認為即使是強勁且較長的高利率也不會立即意味著您將獲得非常敏感的訂單。顯然，我們談論的不是季度而是幾年，那麼情況就會不同。因為那時造船商和投資者的整個生態系統都會找到完成合約的方法。但在不久的將來，我認為發生大量新合約的可能性很低。

The next question is from the line of Ulrik Bak from SEB.

下一個問題來自 SEB 的 Ulrik Bak。

Yes. Just a few questions from my side as well. You mentioned that you expect the inflection point for tanker rates to be during Q1 and possibly Q4 if OPEC increases its output schedule. But based on this current output schedule by OPEC, you expect that in Q1, do you see any other significant factors than this input increase, which could either accelerate or slow this tanker rate recovery during 2022? And how do you see the likelihood of either factor playing out?

是的。我這邊也有幾個問題。您提到，如果歐佩克增加產量計劃，您預計油輪運價的轉折點將出現在第一季度，甚至可能是第四季度。但根據歐佩克目前的產量計劃，您預計在第一季度，除了輸入增加之外，您是否還會看到任何其他重要因素，這可能會加速或減緩 2022 年油輪運價的恢復？您如何看待這兩個因素發揮作用的可能性？

I think that's a very, very good question. I think it's always so that these events that triggers the market is very easy to see in the aftermath. So I wouldn't be able to give you a very clear and precise answer. I think markets generally have a tendency to overreact in both directions. And currently, what we are seeing is that there is a strong underlying demand for the larger tonnages, as I mentioned. We are now experiencing rates well above $20,000 for the LRs, which we've not seen for some time.

我認為這是一個非常非常好的問題。我認為，這些觸發市場的事件在事後總是很容易看到的。所以我無法給你一個非常明確和準確的答案。我認為市場通常有在兩個方向上反應過度的傾向。正如我所提到的，目前我們看到的是對更大噸位的潛在需求強勁。我們現在的 LR 價格遠高於 20,000 美元，這是我們已經有一段時間沒有看到的了。

What we would normally think is that, that freight rate environment for the larger ships can still push the rates higher. But obviously, our customers, they will, over time, split these cargoes into smaller stems, and that you will sort of have a filtering down into the smaller segments. But given that the smaller segments, for instance, the MR, that we're also experiencing freight rates at and above $20,000 as I mentioned in the U.S. Gulf currently, then you could argue that it's already now teeing up for the -- if sort of the fundamental demand continues to build, then there's only one thing to do. That is that the whole freight rate environment will go higher. So I'm not suggesting that we are in that inflection point, but I think it could happen any time.

我們通常認為，大型船舶的運費環境仍可推高運費。但顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶會將這些貨物分成更小的部分，並且您將過濾成更小的部分。但考慮到較小的細分市場，例如MR，正如我目前在美國海灣提到的那樣，我們的運費也達到或超過20,000 美元，那麼你可能會說，它現在已經在為——如果排序的話做好準備。也就是說整個運價環境將會走高。所以我並不是說我們正處於這個轉折點，但我認為它隨時都可能發生。

The real switch on, the point about OPEC, is obviously that if you have a step change in the supply of oil to the market, that will stimulate demand for oil. Everything else being equal, I think oil price will then stay -- or the risk of a significant further step-up in oil price will be lower in that scenario. And at the same time, the need for transportation of oil-related products will also increase.

關於歐佩克的真正關鍵點顯然是，如果市場石油供應發生階躍變化，這將刺激石油需求。在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為油價將保持不變，或在這種情況下油價進一步大幅上漲的風險將會降低。同時，石油相關產品的運輸需求也會增加。

So I think that's a real switch on in the market. And that could put the market on fire, especially if it happens in the current freight rate environment, where we are seeing rates push -- being pushed up and our customers more and more coming back asking questions related to our tonnages.

所以我認為這是市場真正的轉變。這可能會導致市場火爆，特別是如果這種情況發生在當前的運價環境下，我們會看到運價不斷上漲，而且我們的客戶越來越多地回來詢問與我們的噸位相關的問題。

Okay. And another question regarding whether you have any tailwind at the moment. Obviously, rates are very low at the moment, but we've seen in dry bulk and container space that there's a lot of tailwind from congestion. Is that also a theme in the tanker space? Or is it not something you see at the moment?

好的。還有一個問題是關於你目前是否有任何順風車。顯然，目前的費率非常低，但我們在乾散貨和貨櫃空間中看到，擁塞帶來了巨大的推動力。這也是油輪領域的一個主題嗎？或者這不是你現在看到的東西？

No. I think the -- so there's 2 types of containers. I think it's a great point that in the containerized freight, especially, it is related to the port infrastructure. And it's maybe then secondly related to COVID-19 restrictions in relation to the crew that is on board.

不，我認為——所以有兩種類型的容器。我認為這一點很重要，特別是在貨櫃貨運中，它與港口基礎設施有關。其次，這可能與針對船上船員的 COVID-19 限制有關。

And we are not experiencing any of the -- I think a big point to think about here is that currently, a lot of the oil that we consume on a daily basis is actually just taken off the shelf. It is taken from inventories. So that also means that the pressure that we are seeing in ports are not there.

我們沒有經歷任何 - 我認為這裡需要考慮的一個重要問題是，目前我們每天消耗的大量石油實際上剛從貨架上取下來。它是從庫存中取出的。因此，這也意味著我們在港口看到的壓力並不存在。

There is one exception, but that's not really a port or a COVID issue. That is that currently in the strait of Bosphorus, larger vessels have waiting time up between 2 and 3 weeks. So obviously, if you think about a relatively short duration, cargo movements in that area on larger ships, they are heavily impacted by that. But that's a weather-related issue. Apart from that, we are not experiencing in this sector.

有一個例外，但這並不是真正的端口或新冠肺炎問題。也就是說，目前在博斯普魯斯海峽，較大船隻的等待時間長達2至3週。顯然，如果你考慮相對較短的持續時間，大型船舶在該地區的貨物運輸，它們會受到嚴重影響。但這是一個與天氣有關的問題。除此之外，我們在這個領域還沒有經驗。

Okay. That's very clear. And then a final question to your liquidity position. You mentioned the 9 sale and leaseback agreements that you've made. But -- and in that context, how comfortable are you with the current liquidity position if the tanker market does not pick up? Obviously, everyone expected to pick up during 2022. But if that doesn't happen, what do you think of your liquidity position at the moment?

好的。這非常清楚。最後一個問題是關於您的流動性狀況。您提及了您簽訂的 9 份售後回租協議。但是，在這種情況下，如果油輪市場沒有回升，您對當前的流動性狀況有多滿意？顯然，每個人都預計 2022 年會有所回升。

Thank you, Ulrik, for that question. We have -- you've seen our liquidity position as we just presented it here. And we have embarked on these 9 sale and leaseback transaction for several reasons, one of them being what you're alluding to here or directly addressing that. What if in these challenging markets, things are not happening as we expect? And so we've added this.

謝謝你，烏爾里克，提出這個問題。正如我們剛才在這裡介紹的那樣，您已經看到了我們的流動性狀況。我們出於多種原因開始進行這 9 項售後回租交易，其中之一就是您在這裡提到的或直接解決的問題。如果在這些充滿挑戰的市場中，事情沒有按照我們的預期發生呢？所以我們添加了這個。

So we are very comfortable even if we enter into quarters that are not promising, but as we've seen in recent quarters. So that is one of the main reasons for doing that. Others are, of course, also, if we see markets pick up as we've seen, adding to both the purchase but also the possibility to add on any strategic opportunities that would arise in the coming year. So we are very comfortable with the liquidity position we have today and even more adding the 9 sale and leaseback agreements into our infrastructure.

因此，即使我們進入前景不佳的季度，我們也感到非常自在，但正如我們在最近幾季所看到的那樣。這是這樣做的主要原因之一。當然，如果我們看到市場像我們所看到的那樣回升，那麼其他方面也會增加，這不僅會增加購買量，還會增加來年出現的任何戰略機會的可能性。因此，我們對今天的流動性狀況感到非常滿意，更何況在我們的基礎設施中添加了 9 份售後回租協議。

Okay. And is there more you can do in terms of adding more liquidity, making more sale and leaseback agreements? Or...

好的。在增加流動性、簽訂更多售後回租協議方面，您還可以做更多的事情嗎？或者...

Yes. If we wanted to, we could of course. There are still room to add more leverage to our balance sheet if we decide to do that. This is why we are very comfortable with this, Ulrik. So this is what we see fit right now. This is exactly what we need at the moment.

是的。如果我們願意，當然可以。如果我們決定這樣做，我們的資產負債表仍有增加槓桿的空間。這就是為什麼我們對此感到非常滿意，烏爾里克。所以這就是我們現在認為合適的。這正是我們目前所需要的。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from the line of Anders Karlsen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Anders Karlsen。

Just a couple of questions, a little bit on following up on what you said, Kim, in terms of opportunities. If you were to expand further beyond what you have done recently, what segments would that be in? And -- or if you have any preference? And I guess that would be in the form of potentially adding on secondhand tonnage.

只是幾個問題，關於金，關於機會方面你所說的話的一些後續行動。如果您要進一步擴展您最近所做的事情，那麼會涉及哪些領域？還有——或者您有什麼偏好嗎？我想這可能會以增加二手噸位的形式出現。

Yes. I can give an answer to that. We do look, obviously, at all the opportunities that are out there. And if I were to zoom it in a little, then as you point to, I think it will be existing units with modern features. So let's say, tonnage that are built within the last 5 to 8 years. That would be our preference.

是的。我可以回答這個問題。顯然，我們確實關注所有存在的機會。如果我把它放大一點，那麼正如你所指出的，我認為它將是具有現代功能的現有單元。比如說，過去 5 到 8 年內建造的噸位。這將是我們的偏好。

And in the segments, if we're going to point at anything, and I think the 3 segments that we are focused on, as you can also see, would be MR, LR1 and LR2. And then it would really depend on the specific opportunity. We can't really design the opportunities ourselves. So we are open to study the opportunities out there, which fits with what I've just described.

在這些細分市場中，如果我們要指出任何事情，我認為我們重點關注的 3 個細分市場，正如您也可以看到的那樣，將是 MR、LR1 和 LR2。然後這真的取決於具體的機會。我們無法真正自己設計機會。因此，我們願意研究那裡的機會，這符合我剛才所描述的內容。

Okay. And then another question on the market. I mean with the weak crude tanker market, I guess you see some competition from newbuilds entering the product tanker market as their first cargo. Are you seeing any easing off of that? Or is that still an issue for you guys?

好的。然後是市場上的另一個問題。我的意思是，由於原油油輪市場疲軟，我想您會看到新造船作為第一批貨物進入成品油輪市場的一些競爭。您看到這種情況有緩解嗎？或者這對你們來說仍然是一個問題嗎？

That has been an issue throughout the year. Currently, there's a bit of an easing, but it's more actually because the number of newbuilds have gone down a little, and that will pick up again in the first half of next year according to the data we have. So I think if the prevailing markets remain, if the crude tanker market is not picking up from where we are, we will see a continued flux of cannibalization on maiden voyage from crude tankers also in the first half of next year, when there is a when it is an order book where you can say that it is relevant.

這一直是全年的問題。目前，情況有所緩解，但更實際的是，新船數量有所下降，根據我們掌握的數據，明年上半年將再次回升。因此，我認為，如果當前市場仍然存在，如果原油油輪市場沒有從目前的情況回升，我們將在明年上半年看到原油油輪首航的持續蠶食，屆時會有當它是一個訂單簿時，你可以說它是相關的。

The next question is from the line of [Urama Kadal] from Clarkson Securities.

下一個問題來自克拉克森證券公司的 [Urama Kadal]。

Just curious about the timing of the sale and leaseback transaction you did. Was this maturities that you had to refinance? Or, yes, why did it happen now?

只是好奇您進行的售後回租交易的時間表。這是您必須再融資的到期日嗎？或者，是的，為什麼現在會發生？

Yes, this is Jacob. No, it was actually not specific maturities that we had to act. It a relationship that we have been working on for a number of years, and where we've, sort of with our counterpart have, over time, identified what would be a suitable size of a deal, and what would be our first sort of structure that fits both on their side and on our side.

是的，這是雅各。不，實際上我們必須採取行動的並不是特定的期限。我們多年來一直致力於建立這種關係，隨著時間的推移，我們與我們的同行已經確定了合適的交易規模，以及我們的第一個交易類型。

So it was actually, over time, just identifying a pool of assets. And as Kim mentioned earlier, just shy of $200 million was sort of the sweet spot for them as sort of the first type of deal with us. And so this was a group of vessels where it made sense for us to also do it. So there was no pressure as such, but it was a strategic choice that this made sense to have this particular financing institution as part of our debt structure going forward.

因此，隨著時間的推移，實際上只是確定了一組資產。正如 Kim 之前提到的，作為與我們達成的第一種交易，接近 2 億美元對他們來說是一個最佳點。因此，對我們來說，這樣做也是有意義的。因此，沒有這樣的壓力，但這是一個策略選擇，讓這個特定的融資機構成為我們未來債務結構的一部分是有意義的。

Yes, makes sense. I mean you have a lot of cash now, basically, right? $185 million or so. And...

是的，有道理。我的意思是你現在基本上有很多現金，對嗎？ 1.85 億美元左右。和...

It was a strategic choice that we're not -- I mean this was not something we had to do, but we do feel very -- I would say, very comfortable in general, as Kim also said. Whether this is then the scenario where this needs to be used as defense or whether we have the luxury to use it as offense, in either direction, this is a sizable pool of cash that we can utilize to the means that we have.

這是一個我們不是的戰略選擇——我的意思是這不是我們必須做的事情，但我們確實感覺非常——我想說，總的來說非常舒服，正如金也所說的那樣。無論是在這種情況下需要將其用作防禦，還是我們有能力將其用作進攻，無論是哪個方向，這都是我們可以利用我們擁有的手段來利用的大量現金。

Currently, the markets, as I mentioned already, are pointing in the direction that we have been waiting for. Of course, we would like to see that for more than 2 weeks. But it is -- there are really strong signs of fundamental step change in the market currently. And then we have this cushion of cash as you point to.

正如我已經提到的，目前市場正指向我們一直在等待的方向。當然，我們希望看到這種情況持續超過兩週。但事實確實如此——目前市場確實有明顯的根本性變化的跡象。然後我們就有了你提到的現金緩衝。

Yes. Interesting. Yes, so how you think about investment opportunities now? I mean you're basically finishing off the scrubber retrofit program, 53 vessels, which seems to be have been a great success when I look at today's scrubber agreements at least. And you have only 2 newbuilds left on order.

是的。有趣的。是的，那麼您現在如何看待投資機會？我的意思是，你們基本上已經完成了 53 艘船舶的洗滌器改造計劃，至少當我查看今天的洗滌器協議時，這似乎取得了巨大的成功。您的訂單只剩下 2 艘新船了。

So how do you think about your fleet now? And how are you going to position yourself in the upcoming regulations and, yes, in that sense? Can you give something -- color about that?

那麼您現在如何看待您的機隊呢？您將如何在即將出台的法規中定位自己，是的，從這個意義上說？你能給出一些關於它的顏色嗎？

It's a good point. I mean so if we look at sort of our future commitments, I think you point to that on scrubber, we've finalize that program. And where maybe if we had this call a year ago, there would be some conversation around was that really a sound choice. Because spread between high sulfur and low sulfur were at that time, well below $100 today. As we all know, it's come up again. So it's -- I think, over time, we're very comfortable with that investment and with that decision. And then there is volatility in the spread, currently very much to our -- in our favor.

這是一個好點。我的意思是，如果我們看看我們未來的承諾，我想你會指出關於洗滌器的承諾，我們已經敲定了該計劃。如果我們一年前接到這個電話，也許會進行一些討論，這確實是一個不錯的選擇。因為當時高硫和低硫之間的價差遠低於今天的 100 美元。眾所周知，它又出現了。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們對這項投資和這個決定感到非常滿意。然後利差存在波動，目前對我們非常有利。

Now if we look at the fleet and the potential CapEx, yes, we've got these 2 newbuilds that seems to be coming out of yards at an impeccable timing here towards end of this year and early of next year, the 2 LR2s, and then we don't really have anything. So if I were to script it, I think we would still prefer to up our investments in the larger vessel, simply because strategically, we already today have a significant role to play in the MRs. So if I could choose myself for, I think, investment opportunities in the LRs. But of course, at the end of the day, it depends on the pricing structure.

現在，如果我們看看機隊和潛在的資本支出，是的，我們有這兩艘新造船，它們似乎會在今年年底和明年初的完美時機出廠，即 2 艘 LR2 和那我們就真的什麼都沒有了。因此，如果我要編寫它，我認為我們仍然更願意增加對更大船隻的投資，僅僅是因為從戰略上講，我們今天已經在 MR 中發揮了重要作用。因此，我想，如果我可以選擇自己，我可以選擇 LR 的投資機會。但當然，歸根結底，這取決於定價結構。

And we don't feel that newbuilds is the right way to go. We don't need, from a strategic point of view, to go to elevated prices. Also because when we look at sort of our climate commitment, that there, we feel very comfortable that with our own fleet, the fleet composition, that we were well in advance of 2030 be meeting all of our IMO requirement. And hopefully, we can even up the game on that as we progress, and as we make all the sensible investments into additional fuel efficiency gadgets on existing vessels. So we are very comfortable with utilizing existing vessels, both from our own fleet but also obviously from potential new investments.

我們認為新建建築不是正確的選擇。從策略角度來看，我們不需要提高價格。另外，因為當我們審視我們的氣候承諾時，我們感到非常放心，憑藉我們自己的船隊、船隊組成，我們在 2030 年之前就滿足了 IMO 的所有要求。希望隨著我們的進步，以及我們對現有船舶上額外的燃油效率設備進行所有合理的投資，我們可以在這方面進一步提高水準。因此，我們非常樂意利用現有的船舶，既有來自我們自己的船隊，也有來自潛在的新投資的船舶。

Great. Would you also consider share buybacks given your discount to NAV? What do you think about that?

偉大的。鑑於您的淨值有折扣，您還會考慮股票回購嗎？你對此有何看法？

I think we need to think about it, but I think let's take that discussion -- I mean, first, I would like to have the discussion with our Board. Because so far, we have been careful around our movements, including share buybacks. For -- so let's see that the market really starts to return.

我認為我們需要考慮一下，但我認為讓我們進行討論——我的意思是，首先，我想與我們的董事會進行討論。因為到目前為止，我們一直對我們的行動保持謹慎，包括股票回購。讓我們看看市場真正開始復甦。

And then we have the distribution policy where we, every half year, can pay back 50% of the net result. And that can, of course, be distributed in terms of a straight dividend or share buyback. So I think that the -- let's turn a few pages here in the calendar, and let's come back on that issue when we've seen a couple of quarters of considerably higher earnings than what we experienced the last quarter.

然後我們有分配政策，每半年可以償還淨利潤的50%。當然，這可以透過直接股利或股票回購的方式來分配。所以我認為，讓我們翻過日曆幾頁，當我們看到幾個季度的收益比上個季度高得多時，讓我們回到這個問題。

Yes. Fair enough. Just a final question for me on the market. I mean seems to be very strong refining margins across regions. But still, there's fairly low refining utilization. You mentioned it's coming up in the U.S. But what's keeping these refiners from basically processing more crude and producing more products, do you think?

是的。很公平。這對我來說是市場上的最後一個問題。我的意思是，各地區的煉油利潤似乎都非常高。但煉油利用率仍相當低。您提到美國即將出現這種情況，但您認為是什麼阻礙了這些煉油廠基本上加工更多原油並生產更多產品？

So that is actually the point that we also made around Hurricane Ida having a profound effect, was that there are outages because of lack of energy. You see the same in China, that actually, you see the government imposing restrictions on the utilization of energy. And that is also hurting, for instance, the Chinese refiners.

因此，這實際上是我們圍繞颶風艾達所提出的具有深遠影響的觀點，即由於缺乏能源而導致停電。你在中國也看到同樣的情況，實際上，你看到政府對能源的利用施加限制。例如，這也損害了中國煉油廠的利益。

It is also has been a problem in the refinery sector in U.S. at large, that there has been a lack of energy basically to -- for these big, complex facilities to up the end, even though the economic rationale is clearly there. So let's see when some of this energy crisis also, I'm going to say, find its feet and you can release some of the energy again to this sector. Then clearly, there's an incentive, as you point to, for them to ramp up their production.

整個美國煉油業也存在一個問題，即這些大型、複雜的設施基本上缺乏能源來完成任務，儘管經濟上的理由是顯而易見的。因此，讓我們看看，我要說的是，這種能源危機何時能夠站穩腳跟，你可以再次向該領域釋放一些能量。顯然，正如您所指出的，他們有動力提高產量。

There are no more questions at this time. I hand back to Andreas Abildgaard-Hein for closing comments.

目前沒有更多問題。我請安德烈亞斯·阿比德加德·海因 (Andreas Abildgaard-Hein) 徵求結束意見。

Thank you. We actually have a question here on the webcast that we will just pick up on. So here's the question from [Howard Shuzen Lee] from Danske Bank Markets. What is the total sum of the Chinese leasing for the 3 LR2s?

謝謝。實際上，我們在網路廣播中有一個問題，我們將立即解決。這是丹麥銀行市場部 [Howard Shuzen Lee] 提出的問題。中國租賃這 3 艘 LR2 的總金額是多少？

Yes, I can answer that. The sum is, in total, just above USD 103 million. So I hope that's the answer you're looking for, [Howard].

是的，我可以回答。總金額略高於 1.03 億美元。所以我希望這就是您正在尋找的答案，[霍華德]。

Okay. Thank you. This concludes the earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2021 results. Thank you all for participating.

好的。謝謝。 2021 年第三季業績電話會議至此結束。感謝大家的參與。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。