Timken Co (TKR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Bruno and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Timken's Fourth Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安！我叫布魯諾，今天將擔任你們的電話會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加鐵姆肯公司第四季業績發布電話會議。 （接線生指示）

Mr. Frohnapple, you may begin your conference.

弗羅納普爾先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thanks, Bruno, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. This is Neil Frohnapple, Head of Investor Relations for The Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today.

謝謝，Bruno，歡迎大家參加我們2023年第四季財報電話會議。我是鐵姆肯公司投資人關係主管Neil Frohnapple。感謝您今天的參與。

Before we begin our remarks this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation materials on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

在開始今天早上的演講之前，我想指出，我們已經在公司網站上發布了演示材料，我們將在今天的季度業績回顧中參考這些材料。您也可以透過收益電話會議網路直播連結中的下載功能存取這些資料。

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Rich Kyle; and Phil Fracassa, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Rich and Phil before we open up the call for your questions. During the Q&A, I would ask that you please limit your questions to 1 question and 1 follow-up at a time to allow everyone a chance to participate.

今天與我一同出席的還有鐵姆肯公司總裁兼執行長 Rich Kyle 和財務長 Phil Fracassa。今天上午，Rich 和 Phil 將在電話會議開始之前致開幕詞。在問答環節，我希望大家每次提問不超過一個問題和一個後續問題，以便每個人都有機會參與。

During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we described in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the timken.com website.

在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到與我們未來財務表現、計劃和業務運營相關的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿以及提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的報告中對此進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 timken.com 網站上查閱。

We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials.

我們在新聞稿和簡報資料中加入了非 GAAP 財務資訊和 GAAP 財務資訊之間的對帳。

Today's call is copyrighted by The Timken Company, and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call.

今天的電話會議版權歸鐵姆肯公司所有，未經明確書面同意，我們禁止以任何方式使用、錄製或傳輸電話會議的任何部分。

With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in The Timken Company. And I will now turn the call over to Rich.

最後，感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的關注。現在，我將把電話交給Rich。

Thanks, Neil. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Timken delivered a record fourth quarter, which concluded an excellent year. Revenue was up 1% for the quarter with the benefit of acquisitions and currency slightly more than offsetting a 5% organic decline in revenue. As expected, wind energy and China were the largest headwinds on organic revenue, with wind revenue down more than 30% from prior year. Given the significant decline in wind and softening demand across many other industrial markets, we responded well to the situation and delivered a very solid quarter. We expanded margins 70 basis points versus last year, despite the lower volume levels. Price-cost remained positive and sequential cost increases continued to moderate. We continued to adjust our inventory and production levels down to both normalized supply chain performance as well as softer demand.

謝謝，尼爾。早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議。鐵姆肯公司第四季業績創下紀錄，為出色的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。本季營收成長1%，收購和匯率因素帶來的收益略高於5%的有機收入下降。如預期，風能和中國市場是有機收入的最大阻力，風能收入較前一年下降了30%以上。鑑於風能的大幅下滑以及許多其他工業市場需求的疲軟，我們應對自如，取得了非常穩健的季度業績。儘管銷量有所下降，但我們的利潤率較上年同期增長了70個基點。價格成本維持正成長，成本較上季成長持續放緩。我們繼續調整庫存和生產水平，以適應正常的供應鏈績效和疲軟的需求。

Earnings per share of $1.37 was a record for the fourth quarter and was up $0.03 over last year. We closed on 2 acquisitions and 1 divestiture in the quarter, and we also purchased 450,000 shares.

每股收益1.37美元，創下第四季新高，較去年同期成長0.03美元。本季我們完成了兩筆收購和一筆資產剝離，並回購了45萬股股票。

Despite a very active year for capital allocation, we ended the year near the middle of our targeted debt-to-EBITDA range.

儘管今年的資本配置非常活躍，但我們年底的債務與 EBITDA 比率仍接近目標範圍的中間值。

Before I turn to the full year, let me comment on the 2 acquisitions completed in the quarter. iMECH expands our industry-leading Engineered Bearing product portfolio with a niche product line of bearings that are focused on operating in extreme conditions in process industries. The business sells almost exclusively in the United States, and we will leverage Timken's global channels to expand their position beyond the U.S.

在回顧全年業績之前，我想先談談本季完成的兩項收購。 iMECH 擴展了我們領先業界的工程軸承產品組合，推出了一系列專注於在製程工業極端條件下運作的利基軸承產品。這項業務幾乎只在美國銷售，我們將利用鐵姆肯公司的全球管道，將業務拓展到美國以外的地區。

We acquired Lagersmit near the end of the year, Lagersmit is a leader in sealing systems in the European marine market. Synergies here are in cross-selling our other bearing and Industrial Motion products in the Lagersmit channels and expanding their global position outside of Europe. Both iMECH and Lagersmit will be accretive to earnings and margins in '24.

我們在年底收購了拉鉤斯密特公司，該公司是歐洲船舶密封系統市場的領導者。此次收購的綜效在於，我們能夠在拉鉤斯密特公司的通路中交叉銷售其他軸承和工業傳動產品，並擴大其在歐洲以外的全球市場地位。 iMECH 和拉鉤斯密特公司都將在2024年提升獲利和利潤率。

For the full year, we delivered record revenue, record earnings per share and our highest operating margins in recent times. Revenue was up 6% for the year, earnings per share were up 9% and margins were up 70 basis points. This was achieved despite a sudden and deep decline in demand in our largest market, renewable energy, continued inflationary pressures, and a general softening industrial demand through the year as supply chains returned to normal.

全年，我們實現了創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的每股盈餘以及近年來最高的營業利益率。全年營收成長6%，每股收益成長9%，利潤率成長70個基點。儘管我們最大的市場——再生能源——的需求突然大幅下降，通膨壓力持續存在，以及隨著供應鏈恢復正常，工業需求在全年普遍疲軟，但我們仍然取得了這一成就。

Timken continued to demonstrate the strength and diversity of its portfolio and our ability to profitably grow and perform through a wide variety of market conditions. We achieved positive price-cost for the full year and have demonstrated over the last several years that we can perform through declining, flat or inflationary cost environments.

鐵姆肯公司持續展現其產品組合的實力和多樣性，以及我們在各種市場條件下實現獲利成長和業績成長的能力。全年我們實現了正成本價格比，並在過去幾年中證明了我們能夠在成本下降、持平或通膨的環境下保持業績。

We advanced our strategic initiatives, both organically and inorganically. Organically, we continue to drive outgrowth through our focus on innovative product solutions, leadership in customer engineering, channel excellence and outstanding service. Inorganically, we completed 6 acquisitions during the year. Our inorganic growth continue to both scale us in existing products and markets like the acquisitions of American Roller Bearing and Rosa Sistemi, and expand us into new products and markets like the acquisitions of Des-Case and Lagersmit.

我們透過內生成長和外延成長推進了策略性舉措。內生成長方面，我們繼續透過專注於創新產品解決方案、領先的客戶工程、卓越的管道和卓越的服務來推動成長。外延成長方面，我們在本年度完成了6項收購。我們的外延成長不僅持續擴大了我們在現有產品和市場的規模，例如收購美國滾子軸承公司 (American Roller Bearing) 和羅莎·西斯特米 (Rosa Sistemi)，也拓展了我們在新產品和市場的版圖，例如收購戴斯凱斯 (Des-Case) 和拉格斯密特 (Lagersmit)。

Our focus on operational excellence and the subsequent results have returned to pre-COVID levels as we drive safety, quality, productivity and capital efficiency across our operations and supply chains. We ramped down our production costs through the course of the year. And by the end of '23, we have lowered the staffing levels in our plants by over 8% from the start of the year, with most of that taking place in the second half.

隨著我們在整個營運和供應鏈中推動安全、品質、生產力和資本效率，我們對卓越營運的關注以及由此帶來的業績已恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。我們全年大幅降低了生產成本。到2023年底，我們工廠的員工數量較年初減少了8%以上，其中大部分是在下半年進行的。

We continue to advance our manufacturing footprint with the investment of over $180 million in the capital projects and the consolidation of 3 manufacturing facilities into existing plants.

我們繼續擴大我們的製造足跡，在資本項目中投資超過 1.8 億美元，並將 3 個製造工廠合併到現有工廠中。

Additionally, we purchased over 4% of the outstanding shares during the year, and we increased the annual dividend payout for the tenth consecutive year. The full year once again demonstrated our ability to respond to and perform at a high level through a variety of macroeconomic conditions. And in addition to our strong financial performance, our Timken team was recognized by several third parties for our leadership as a responsible corporate citizen, as an employer of choice and as an innovator.

此外，我們在本年度回購了超過4%的流通股，並連續第十年提高年度股利。全年業績再次證明了我們應對各種宏觀經濟狀況並保持高水準表現的能力。除了強勁的財務表現外，鐵姆肯團隊還因其作為負責任的企業公民、最佳雇主和創新者的領導力而獲得了多家第三方的認可。

Turning to 2024. We are planning for revenue to be down over 3% for the full year and over 6% organically at the midpoint. Let me separate our wind energy outlook from the rest of the markets. We had a very strong first half of '23 in wind and then faced a steep decline for the rest of the year. We expect the first half of '24 to be down slightly more sequentially from the fourth quarter and then to level off in the second half. We do not have firm visibility demand in the second half, but at this point, we are not seeing any imminent catalyst for a rebound in demand in China.

展望2024年，我們預期全年營收將下降3%以上，中期有機下降6%以上。我將風能市場前景與其他市場區分開來。 2023年上半年，風電業務表現強勁，但隨後在2024年剩餘時間裡卻遭遇了大幅下滑。我們預計2024年上半年的季減幅度將略高於第四季度，下半年將趨於穩定。我們目前尚無明確的下半年需求預期，但目前來看，我們尚未看到中國市場需求反彈的任何跡象。

If it plays out as we're planning, wind demand will be down year-over-year over 40% in the first half, and then be flattish in the second half on the much lower comps. So we expect to start '24 with a sizable renewable energy headwind, but we also expect that headwind to moderate significantly in the second half of the year. Longer term, we believe this is just a cyclical decline, and we remain bullish on the long-term outlook for growth in wind energy.

如果情況按我們的計劃發展，上半年風電需求將年減40%以上，下半年則將持平，因為可比價格低得多。因此，我們預計2024年伊始再生能源將面臨相當大的逆風，但我們也預期這種逆風將在下半年顯著減弱。從長遠來看，我們認為這只是一個週期性的下降，我們仍然看好風電的長期成長前景。

Beyond wind, we are currently experiencing a relatively normal softening of demand across a broad range of industrial markets. The outlook for the rest of our markets range from up slightly to down roughly 10%. This includes the expectation that inventory will continue to be reduced across many of our channels.

除風電外，目前，我們各大工業市場的需求都呈現相對正常的疲軟態勢。其餘市場的預期範圍從小幅上漲到約10%的下跌不等。這包括我們預計許多渠道的庫存將繼續減少。

In most of our markets, we only have a few months of firm visibility to demand. While we are not forecasting a strengthening in the second half of the year, it is certainly possible. And if so, we will be ready to capitalize on it. We're guiding to margins of over 18% for the full year and a decline in earnings per share in the mid-teens, with lower volumes being the primary driver.

在大多數市場，我們只有幾個月的時間可以清楚地預測需求。雖然我們預測下半年需求不會增強，但這絕對是有可能的。如果是這樣，我們將做好準備，抓住機會。我們預計全年利潤率將超過18%，每股收益將下降15%左右，主要原因是銷量下降。

We're planning for modest inflationary pressures through the course of the year and price to be modestly positive, less than 1%. We expect to generate a step-up in free cash flow from '23 with conversion of over 100%. We have a good pipeline of self-help initiatives intended to mitigate the revenue and margin impact. The 6 acquisitions and 1 divestiture we completed in '23 are expected to add over 2% to the top line and be accretive to both margins and earnings.

我們預計全年通膨壓力將維持在溫和水平，價格將略微上漲，漲幅將低於1%。我們預計從2023年起，自由現金流將會提升，轉換率將超過100%。我們擁有一系列完善的自助措施，旨在減輕收入和利潤率的影響。我們在2023年完成的6項收購和1項資產剝離預計將使營收成長超過2%，並提升利潤率和獲利。

We also have a good pipeline of new business activities and cross-selling opportunities that will support our long-term outgrowth objectives. From a cost perspective, we have excellent focus and good momentum on our operational excellence initiatives. We will benefit from the CapEx and plant closures completed last year and the additional planned actions for this year. We have 4 more plant consolidations currently underway for '24 and our productivity is the best it has been in several years.

我們還擁有豐富的新業務活動和交叉銷售機會，這將支持我們實現長期成長目標。從成本角度來看，我們高度重視卓越營運計劃，並保持良好的發展動能。去年完成的資本支出和工廠關閉以及今年計劃採取的其他行動都將使我們受益。我們目前正在進行2024年的4個工廠合併項目，我們的生產力達到了幾年來的最高水準。

We will also benefit from integration synergies. As an example of this, we took further steps in the second half of '23 to integrate both GGB and American Roller Bearing further into our global bearing organization. These actions will deliver improved business results and do so at lower cost levels.

我們也將受益於整合協同效應。例如，我們在2023年下半年採取了進一步措施，將GGB和美國滾子軸承進一步整合到我們的全球軸承業務中。這些措施將以更低的成本帶來更佳的業務績效。

We expect the first quarter to be the toughest revenue comp. The last few years, our first quarter was up sequentially over 10% on the top line. We are expecting that to be in the mid- to high single digits this year, primarily due to wind and China headwinds. We still expect a sequential step up in margins and earnings per share in the first quarter, but not enough to get us back to '23 levels.

我們預計第一季的營收將季增將最為艱難。過去幾年，我們第一季的營收季增超過10%。我們預計今年的收入環比成長將維持在中高個位數，主要原因是風能和中國市場的不利因素。我們仍預期第一季的利潤率和每股盈餘將環比成長，但不足以讓我們回到2023年的水準。

Before I turn it over to Phil, I want to reference Slide 11, which highlights our financial results for revenue, margins and earnings per share over the last 5 years. We've set new revenue and earnings per share records in 5 of the last 6 years and new margin highs in 2 of the last 5 years. Since 2016, we've been demonstrating our ability to perform and profitably grow the business through a wide variety of market conditions. And while we're starting '24 in a challenging demand environment, the Timken portfolio is strong, resilient and diverse.

在將發言權交給菲爾之前，我想先參考第11張投影片，它重點介紹了我們過去五年的收入、利潤率和每股盈餘的財務表現。過去六年中，我們有五年創下了營收和每股盈餘的新高，過去五年中，我們有兩年創下了利潤率的新高。自2016年以來，我們一直展現出在各種市場條件下都能維持業績並實現獲利成長的能力。儘管2024年開始，我們面臨著充滿挑戰的需求環境，但鐵姆肯的產品組合依然強勁、富有韌性且多元化。

We're confident that our strategy and our execution have put us in a position to quickly return to setting new levels of performance. The cash flow of the business is solid, and we have proven to be the excellent allocators of that capital. Our acquisitions have made the portfolio more diverse, less cyclical, higher margin and higher growth. We are well positioned to continue to grow the earnings power of the company and to advance and scale Timken as a diversified industrial leader. Phil?

我們相信，我們的策略和執行力使我們能夠迅速重回新的績效水準。公司現金流穩健，事實證明，我們能夠出色地配置這些資本。我們的收購使產品組合更加多元化，週期性減弱，利潤率更高，成長更快。我們已做好準備，繼續提升公司的獲利能力，並進一步擴大鐵姆肯公司作為多元化工業領導者的地位。菲爾？

Okay. Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. For the financial review, I'm going to start on Slide 13 of the presentation material with a summary of our strong fourth quarter results which capped off another record year for Timken.

好的。謝謝，Rich，大家早安。關於財務回顧，我將從簡報的第13張投影片開始，總結我們強勁的第四季業績，這為鐵姆肯公司又一個創紀錄的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

We posted revenue of just under $1.1 billion in the quarter, up about 1% from last year. Our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 17.9%, up 70 basis points, and we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, up about 2% from last year.

本季度，我們的營收略低於11億美元，較去年同期成長約1%。第四季調整後EBITDA利潤率為17.9%，較去年同期成長70個基點；調整後每股收益為1.37美元，較去年同期成長約2%。

Turning to Slide 14. Let's take a closer look at our fourth quarter sales performance. Organically, sales were down around 5% from last year as continued positive pricing was more than offset by lower volumes across several industrial sectors. As expected, we saw the largest declines in wind energy and off-highway during the quarter.

翻到第14張投影片。讓我們仔細看看我們第四季的銷售業績。有機銷售量較去年同期下降了約5%，這主要是因為持續的積極定價被多個工業部門的銷售下降所抵消。如預期，本季風能和非公路車輛的銷售額降幅最大。

Looking at the rest of the revenue walk, the impact from acquisitions, net of divestitures, added 5 percentage points of growth to the top line. And foreign currency translation contributed roughly another point to revenue in the quarter. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see organic growth by region, which excludes both currency and the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures. Let me comment briefly on each region.

縱觀其餘收入數據，扣除資產剝離後，收購的影響為營收貢獻了5個百分點的成長。外幣折算也為本季的營收貢獻了約1個百分點。在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到按地區劃分的有機成長情況，其中既不包括貨幣影響，也不包括收購和資產剝離的淨影響。讓我簡要介紹一下每個地區的情況。

In the Americas, we were down modestly against last year's very strong fourth quarter, driven mainly by lower shipments in the off-highway and general industrial sectors, partially offset by growth in rail and industrial services. In Asia Pacific, we were down double digits, driven almost entirely by China, including the sizable decline in wind energy shipments. On the positive side, we continue to see strong growth in India.

在美洲，我們的業績與去年第四季的強勁表現相比略有下降，主要原因是非公路用車和一般工業領域出貨量下降，但鐵路和工業服務業務的成長部分抵消了這一影響。在亞太地區，我們的業績出現了兩位數的下滑，幾乎完全受中國市場的影響，其中包括風能出貨量的大幅下降。積極的一面是，我們繼續看到印度市場的強勁成長。

And finally, we were close to flat in EMEA as lower renewable energy and industrial demand was almost fully offset by growth in other sectors, including heavy industries.

最後，由於再生能源和工業需求的下降幾乎完全被重工業等其他行業的成長所抵消，因此我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業務幾乎持平。

Turning to Slide 15. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $195 million or 17.9% of sales, compared to $186 million or 17.2% of sales last year. Our margin improvement was driven by positive price-cost, which more than offset the impact from lower volume and unfavorable currency in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was up $9 million or about 5% in the quarter, and that's on a sales increase of only around 1%, so, strong operating leverage.

翻到第15張投影片。第四季調整後EBITDA為1.95億美元，佔銷售額的17.9%，去年同期為1.86億美元，佔銷售額的17.2%。利潤率的提升得益於積極的成本價格比，這足以抵消本季銷售下降和不利匯率的影響。本季調整後EBITDA成長了900萬美元，增幅約為5%，而銷售額僅成長了約1%，因此，營運槓桿率強勁。

Looking at the increase in dollars. You can see that we continue to benefit from favorable price mix, lower material and logistics costs and recent acquisitions. Manufacturing performance was also slightly favorable in the quarter for the first time in quite a while. These positives more than offset the impact of lower volume, unfavorable currency and higher SG&A, other costs.

看看美元的成長。您可以看到，我們繼續受益於有利的價格組合、較低的材料和物流成本以及近期的收購。本季的製造業績也略有好轉，這是相當長一段時間以來的首次。這些正面因素足以抵銷銷售下降、匯率不利以及銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）和其他成本上升的影響。

Let me comment a little further on some of the key profitability drivers in the quarter. With respect to price mix, price realization was higher again in both segments compared to last year as we continued to secure additional pricing with our customers. Mix was also a slight positive in the quarter.

讓我進一步談談本季的一些關鍵獲利驅動因素。就價格組合而言，由於我們繼續與客戶達成額外定價，兩個部門的價格實現均較去年同期提高。本季的價格組合也略有改善。

Moving to material and logistics costs. Both were lower off last year's levels and largely in line with our expectations as costs continue to moderate globally. On the manufacturing line, the modest year-over-year benefit was driven by improved operational execution by our team, targeted cost reduction actions and supplier recoveries, which more than offset the impact of lower production volume and ongoing cost inflation.

再來說說材料和物流成本。由於全球成本持續放緩，這兩項成本均低於去年水平，基本上符合我們的預期。在生產線方面，年比略有成長得益於我們團隊營運執行力的提升、有針對性的成本削減措施以及供應商的回收，這些都足以抵消產量下降和持續成本上漲的影響。

Looking at the SG&A other line. Costs were up versus last year, but lower than we expected, driven by our efforts to reduce discretionary spending to better align with demand levels. And finally, with respect to currency, we saw a sizable year-on-year headwind in the quarter, driven mainly by the unfavorable impact of transaction gains and losses in the respective periods.

再來看看銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的其他方面。成本較去年有所上升，但低於我們的預期，這得益於我們努力減少可自由支配的支出，以更好地適應需求水準。最後，就匯率而言，本季我們比去年同期遭遇了相當大的阻力，主要原因是各期間交易損益的不利影響。

On Slide 16, you can see that we posted net income of $59 million or $0.83 per diluted share for the fourth quarter on a GAAP basis. The current period includes $0.54 of net expense from special items, including pension mark-to-market charges, acquisition-related charges and deal amortization expense, offset partially by some net discrete tax benefits. On an adjusted basis, we earned $1.37 per share, up from $1.34 per share last year. Our adjusted tax rate for the year came in at 25.5% or the low end of our prior guidance, which resulted in a fourth quarter tax rate of 24.4%.

在第16張投影片中，您可以看到我們第四季的淨利潤為5,900萬美元，即以公認會計準則計算的每股攤薄收益0.83美元。本期包含0.54美元的特殊項目淨支出，包括退休金市價調整費用、收購相關費用和交易攤銷費用，部分被部分淨單獨稅收益抵銷。經過調整後，我們的每股盈餘為1.37美元，高於去年的每股1.34美元。我們本年度的調整後稅率為25.5%，處於我們先前指引的低端，因此第四季的稅率為24.4%。

Depreciation and interest expense were both higher versus last year as we expected. And finally, we benefited from a lower share count in the quarter, reflecting buybacks completed during 2023.

正如我們預期，折舊和利息支出均高於去年。最後，我們受惠於本季股票數量的減少，這反映了2023年完成的股票回購。

Now let's move to our business segment results, starting with Engineered Bearings on Slide 17. For the fourth quarter, Engineered Bearings sales were $724 million, down 2.4% from last year. Acquisitions net of divestitures and currency were both positive in the quarter. Organically, sales were down 6.4%, driven by lower volumes across several sectors, partially offset by higher pricing.

現在我們來看看各業務部門的業績，首先是幻燈片17上的工程軸承部門。第四季度，工程軸承部門的銷售額為7.24億美元，較去年下降2.4%。扣除資產剝離及匯率因素後，本季的收購淨額均為正值。有機銷售額下降6.4%，原因是多個部門的銷售下降，但部分被價格上漲所抵銷。

With respect to organic revenue performance by sector, the renewable energy and off-highway sector saw the largest declines in the quarter. In addition, distribution and general industrial were down slightly, while the on-highway and heavy industry sectors were relatively flat. On the positive side, we saw growth in aerospace during the quarter, and rail was up as well driven by higher shipments in the Americas.

就各部門的有機收入表現而言，本季再生能源和非公路車輛部門的有機收入降幅最大。此外，配送和一般工業部門略有下降，而公路車輛和重工業部門則相對持平。積極的一面是，本季航空部門實現了成長，而受美洲地區出貨量增加的推動，鐵路部門也實現了成長。

Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $133 million, down slightly from last year, with margins coming in at 18.3%, up 20 basis points. The improvement in segment margin reflects the favorable impact of price mix and lower material and logistics costs, which more than offset the impact of lower organic volume, higher operating costs and unfavorable currency.

工程軸承第四季調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）為1.33億美元，較去年略有下降，利潤率為18.3%，上升20個基點。該部門利潤率的提升反映了價格組合以及材料和物流成本下降的有利影響，足以抵消有機銷售下降、營運成本上升和匯率不利的影響。

Now let's turn to Industrial Motion on Slide 18. In the fourth quarter, Industrial Motion segment sales were $367 million, up 8% from last year. Acquisitions net of divestitures contributed just under 10% to the top line and currency translation added over 1%.

現在我們來看幻燈片18上的工業運動部門。第四季度，工業運動部門銷售額為3.67億美元，年增8%。扣除資產剝離後的收購對營收的貢獻略低於10%，貨幣換算貢獻了超過1%。

Organically, sales declined about 3% as lower volumes were partially offset by higher pricing. With respect to organic revenue performance by platform, belts and chain, drive systems and linear motion were lower in the quarter driven by softer general industrial and off-highway demand. On the positive side, we saw significant growth from our service business driven by strong MRO activity, while automatic lubrication systems and couplings were relatively flat.

有機銷售額下降約3%，因為銷量下降被價格上漲部分抵銷。平台、皮帶和鏈條、驅動系統和線性傳動部門的有機收入表現在本季有所下降，原因是一般工業和非公路用車需求疲軟。積極的一面是，在強勁的維護、修理和大修 (MRO) 業務的推動下，我們的服務業務實現了顯著增長，而自動潤滑系統和聯軸器業務則相對平穩。

Industrial Motion adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $82 million or 22.2% of sales, compared to $65 million or 19.1% of sales last year. We expanded margins 310 basis points in the quarter, driven by positive price-cost, the benefit of ongoing cost improvement initiatives and higher capitalized variances, which more than offset the impact of lower organic volume.

Industrial Motion 第四季調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 8,200 萬美元，佔銷售額的 22.2%，而去年同期為 6,500 萬美元，佔銷售額的 19.1%。本季度，我們的利潤率成長了 310 個基點，這得益於積極的成本價格比、持續的成本改進舉措以及更高的資本化差異，這些因素足以抵消有機銷量下降的影響。

Turning to Slide 19. You can see that we generated operating cash flow of $128 million in the quarter, and after CapEx, free cash flow was $75 million. Looking at the full year, free cash flow was $357 million, up from $285 million last year. The increase in free cash flow was driven mainly by improved working capital and higher adjusted earnings, which more than offset the impact of higher cash taxes including $55 million of tax paid related to the sell-down of Timken India.

翻到第19張幻燈片。您可以看到，本季我們產生了1.28億美元的營運現金流，扣除資本支出後，自由現金流為7,500萬美元。全年自由現金流為3.57億美元，高於去年的2.85億美元。自由現金流的成長主要得益於營運資本的改善和調整後收益的增加，這足以抵消現金稅增加的影響，其中包括與出售鐵姆肯印度公司相關的5,500萬美元稅款。

Looking at the balance sheet. We ended the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.1x. This includes the impact of the recent acquisitions completed during the fourth quarter.

看看資產負債表。截至年底，我們的淨負債與調整後EBITDA比率為2.1倍。這已計入第四季度完成的近期收購的影響。

Turning to Slide 20, you can see a summary of our capital deployment in 2023. In total, we allocated more than $1.1 billion of capital during the year, with over 70% directed towards CapEx and acquisitions to advance our profitable growth strategy. We also completed 6 acquisitions that collectively add more than $250 million of pro forma annual revenue at attractive margins. And we returned $345 million of cash to shareholders during the year, including $56 million in the fourth quarter. In total, we bought back more than 3.1 million shares or over 4% of total outstanding, and raised our quarterly dividend by 6%, achieving 10 straight years of higher annual dividends.

翻到第20張投影片，您可以看到我們2023年資本部署的摘要。全年我們共分配了超過11億美元的資本，其中超過70%用於資本支出和收購，以推進我們的獲利成長策略。我們也完成了6項收購，這些收購共以頗具吸引力的利潤率增加了超過2.5億美元的備考年收入。全年我們向股東返還了3.45億美元現金，其中包括第四季的5,600萬美元。我們總共回購了超過310萬股股票，佔總流通股數的4%以上，並將季度股利提高了6%，實現了連續10年更高的年度股利。

And we deployed this record amount of capital while maintaining a strong balance sheet and leverage near the middle of our targeted range. This sets Timken up well for 2024 and keeps us in a great position to continue to execute our strategy through capital allocation.

我們部署了創紀錄的資本，同時保持了強勁的資產負債表和接近目標區間中部的槓桿率。這為鐵姆肯公司2024年的業績奠定了良好的基礎，並使我們處於有利地位，能夠透過資本配置繼續執行我們的策略。

Now let's turn to our initial outlook for 2024 with a summary on Slide 21. We're taking a cautious view on the outlook given the current demand environment, limited visibility and overall level of uncertainty, especially in sectors like wind in geographies like China.

現在，讓我們來看看 2024 年的初步展望，摘要請見幻燈片 21。鑑於當前的需求環境、有限的可見性和整體的不確定性，我們對前景持謹慎態度，尤其是在中國等地區的風能等領域。

Starting on the sales outlook. We're planning for full year revenue to be down in the range of 2.5% to 4.5% in total versus 2023. Organically, we're planning for revenue to be down 6.5% at the midpoint, reflecting lower volumes, partially offset by slightly higher pricing versus last year.

首先談談銷售前景。我們預計全年總收入將比2023年下降2.5%至4.5%。有機收入預計中位數下降6.5%，這反映了銷售下降，但與去年相比略有上漲的定價部分抵消了影響。

We expect net acquisitions to contribute around 2.5% to our revenue for the year, which includes the net impact of 2023 acquisitions and divestitures. And we're planning for currency to be a tailwind of around 50 basis points for the full year based on current spot rates.

我們預計淨收購將為今年的收入貢獻約2.5%，其中包括2023年收購和資產剝離的淨影響。我們預計，基於當前現貨匯率，全年匯率將上漲約50個基點。

Now let me comment a little more on the organic sales guidance. The midpoint of our range essentially implies that we see no acceleration or recovery of current demand levels through the year other than some seasonality. Note that we would expect the first half year-on-year organic sales declines to be more pronounced and then flatten out in the second half as comps get easier, especially in wind energy.

現在，我想再稍微評論一下有機銷售額指引。我們預期區間的中點實際上意味著，除了一些季節性因素外，我們預計全年當前需求水準不會加速或復甦。需要注意的是，我們預計上半年有機銷售額將比去年同期下降將更加明顯，而下半年隨著可比銷售額（尤其是在風能領域）的下降，銷售額將趨於平穩。

On the bottom line, we expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.80 to $6.20. This earnings outlook implies that our 2024 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be in the low to mid-18% range. Our margin outlook reflects the unfavorable impact from lower volumes and continued inflation in labor and other input costs. On the positive side, the net impact from acquisitions should be accretive to margins, and we expect price/cost to be largely neutral for the year.

就獲利而言，我們預計調整後每股收益將在5.80美元至6.20美元之間。這項獲利預期意味著我們2024年的合併調整後EBITDA利潤率將處於18%的低點至中位數區間。我們的利潤率預期反映了銷售下降以及勞動力和其他投入成本持續上漲的不利影響。正面的一面是，收購帶來的淨影響應會提升利潤率，我們預計今年的價格/成本比率將基本保持中立。

We've stepped up our efforts around operational excellence and cost reduction initiatives, which should mitigate the headwinds and help us deliver resilient margin performance in 2024.

我們加大了在卓越營運和降低成本措施方面的力度，這應該可以減輕不利因素，並幫助我們在 2024 年實現穩健的利潤率績效。

Moving to free cash flow. We expect to generate approximately $425 million for the full year or over 110% conversion on GAAP net income. This is around $70 million or 25% better than 2023 and reflects favorable working capital performance and lower cash taxes, which are expected to more than offset the impact from lower earnings. We're planning for CapEx of around 4% of sales, with the spend continuing to optimize our manufacturing footprint and support our growth and margin objectives.

轉向自由現金流。我們預計全年將產生約4.25億美元的收入，或以公認會計準則計算的淨收入轉換率超過110%。這比2023年高出約7,000萬美元，即25%，這反映了良好的營運資本表現和較低的現金稅，預計將抵消獲利下降的影響。我們計劃將資本支出佔銷售額的4%左右，這筆支出將繼續用於優化我們的生產佈局，並支持我們的成長和利潤目標。

Our CapEx spend for 2024 includes some big projects, including the completion of our plant expansions in India for bearings and in Mexico for belts.

我們 2024 年的資本支出包括一些大型項目，包括完成我們在印度的軸承工廠和在墨西哥的皮帶工廠的擴建。

And finally, we anticipate full year net interest expense to be roughly flat with 2023 and for the adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26%.

最後，我們預計全年淨利息支出將與 2023 年基本持平，調整後的稅率約為 26%。

So to summarize, Timken delivered strong results in the fourth quarter to cap off a third straight year of record sales and adjusted EPS. Our team is executing well in this environment, and we're focused on delivering resilient performance and advancing our strategy in 2024.

總而言之，鐵姆肯公司在第四季度取得了強勁的業績，連續第三年創下銷售額和調整後每股收益的新高。我們的團隊在當前環境下表現出色，我們專注於在2024年實現強勁的業績成長並推進我們的策略。

This concludes our formal remarks, and we'll now open the line for questions. Operator?

我們的正式發言到此結束，現在我們將開放提問專線。接線生？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We do have our first question, comes from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

謝謝。 （操作員指示）我們確實有第一個問題，來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. I guess the key sort of feedback I'm getting here is that people are trying to figure out sort of how conservative this guide is, and I recognize you don't have a ton of visibility into the second half. But you have, on Slide 8, changed your outlook for a number of these end-markets pretty significantly. And I think I understand what's happening in wind, but things like heavy industries and industrial services and rail sort of went from positive high-single digits to negative high-single digits.

太好了。我在這裡得到的主要回饋是，人們正在試圖弄清楚這份預測到底有多保守，我知道您對下半年的前景不太清楚。但在第8張投影片上，您已經大幅調整了對許多終端市場的展望。我想我了解風能產業的情況，但像重工業、工業服務和鐵路等產業的成長率似乎從正的高個位數變成了負的高個位數。

So I guess I'm just trying to sort of tease out how much visibility you have there and how much this is maybe destocking, and what sort of the underlying drivers of those things might be?

所以我想我只是想弄清楚你對此有多大了解，這在多大程度上可能是去庫存，以及這些事情的潛在驅動因素可能是什麼？

Thanks for the question, Steve. Certainly, as you look at the chart from 2023 compared to 2024, most of these didn't move and quite a few of them would have had stronger first halves than second halves. So I think as we -- as you look at the end of the year, this is more reflective of where we finished with our fourth quarter 5-ish percent decline in organic revenue and what made that up. And then some extrapolation of that and again, no assumption of any strengthening. So as an example, we have heavy industries here down high-single digits. We actually grew heavy industries in the fourth quarter last year. We grew it every quarter last year. But we have been consuming backlog for the last 3 quarters, and we're assuming that trend will continue and the second half of the year would be negative.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。當然，當你比較2023年和2024年的圖表時，你會發現大多數業務都沒有變化，而且其中不少業務上半年的表現會強於下半年。所以我認為，當你回顧年底時，這更能反映出我們第四季有機收入下降5%左右的情況，以及造成這項下降的原因。然後，我們可以進行一些推斷，但同樣，我們不會假設任何業務會有所增強。舉個例子，我們這裡的重工業業務下降了高個位數。實際上，去年第四季我們的重工業業務有所成長。去年我們每季都實現了成長。但過去三個季度我們一直在消化積壓訂單，我們假設這種趨勢將持續下去，下半年將出現負成長。

And then also, as we've seen from really since late second quarter of last year, we went from -- we inverted from probably overshipping our customers' demand and stocking inventory to a destocking situation, so we're in at least quarter 3, maybe quarter 4 or 5 of that phenomenon. So we are and have been underselling most of these markets to what our customers are selling. And it's -- they're not huge numbers, but if you see our off-highway customer was down 3% or 4% organically, maybe our sales to them were down 5% or 6% organically. So it's, I'd say, a reflection of the fourth quarter with really no improvement on it, and then seasonality laid on top of it. Phil, anything you would want to add to that?

而且，正如我們從去年第二季度末以來所看到的，我們從可能過度出貨以滿足客戶需求並囤積庫存的情況轉變為去庫存的情況，所以我們至少在第三季度，甚至可能是第四季度或第五季度處於這種現象。因此，我們在大多數市場上的銷售量一直低於客戶的銷售量。雖然數字並不大，但如果你看到我們的非公路用車客戶有機銷售額下降了3%或4%，那麼我們對他們的銷售額有機下降了5%或6%。所以，我想說，這是第四季情況的反映，第四季的情況沒有任何改善，而且還有季節性因素。菲爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you captured it, Rich.

不，我認為你抓住了它，里奇。

Okay. And then just for the follow-up, Rich, this probably isn't quite fair. But do you still think the ISM index is a reasonable way to forecast your business? And if so, if it were to turn positive here at some point, what type of lag might you expect relative to your business?

好的。接下來，Rich，我想問一下，這可能不太公平。您仍然認為ISM指數是預測您業務的合理方法嗎？如果是這樣，如果它在某個時候變為正值，您預計您的業務會出現什麼樣的延遲？

I think it's a reasonable one. I wouldn't say it's -- the timing is exactly right, and accuracy is not real high. But certainly, directionally, when it's moving favorably is a positive for us. But again, the timing of that, predicting the lag, I wouldn't want to put too much into that.

我認為這個預測合理。我不會說時機恰到好處，準確度也不算很高。但從方向來看，當一切朝著好的方向發展時，對我們來說無疑是個好消息。不過，關於時機，以及對滯後預測，我不想投入太多精力。

Our next question comes from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Just to clarify, on the last question in terms of destocking versus end markets, you mentioned kind of destocking being 3, 4, 5 quarters out. So you -- so this move in a lot of these end markets really kind of -- you're saying that's end market demand as opposed to destocking? Just to clarify.

需要澄清的是，關於最後一個關於去庫存與終端市場的問題，您提到去庫存大約需要3、4、5個季度。所以，您——所以很多終端市場的這種走勢實際上——您是說這是終端市場需求，而不是去庫存？需要澄清一下。

I would say, yes, we've seen some of our customers go to -- especially if you take price out, negative organic revenue in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Now again, they may be saying that they're destocking their distributor inventory, other things. But we've seen our customer revenue probably flatten out to go slightly negative and then throw us a little more negative due to the inventory destocking.

是的，我們看到一些客戶——尤其是扣除價格因素後——去年第三季和第四季的有機收入出現了負成長。現在，他們可能又說了，他們正在去除分銷商的庫存等等。但我們看到，客戶收入可能先是持平，然後略微下降，然後由於庫存減少，我們的收入又出現了一些負增長。

Yes. I think, Stanley, if I could just add I think it really is a combination of both from our perspective. I mean we do feel like customers started destocking last year. And obviously, different quarter-by-quarter, some would be flat, some would be down. But net-net, we did see -- we did sense that inventories were coming down a little bit, and we would expect that to continue into 2024, at least through the first half, I would say.

是的。史丹利，我想補充一下，從我們的角度來看，這確實是兩者的結合。我的意思是，我們確實感覺到客戶去年就開始去庫存了。當然，每季的情況都不一樣，有些季度持平，有些季度下降。但總體來看，我們確實看到——我們確實感覺到庫存正在下降，我們預計這種情況將持續到2024年，至少是上半年。

And as Rich commented on the last question, I really think the outlook really is more a function of what the industrial markets and the demand environment was pretty -- it's pretty soft right now. It was soft in the fourth quarter with our organic sales performance. As we sit here today, we don't really see a catalyst for an acceleration, certainly in the first half, limited visibility in the second half.

正如Rich在最後一個問題上所評論的，我確實認為前景實際上更多地取決於工業市場和需求環境——目前情況相當疲軟。第四季我們的有機銷售表現疲軟。就我們今天的情況來看，我們並沒有真正看到加速成長的催化劑，尤其是在上半年，下半年的能見度有限。

So in -- said in the outlook, we thought it was prudent to kind of assume the current demand environment, with pluses and minuses, as Rich said, wind maybe getting a little bit weaker, maybe some markets get a little bit better. But net-net, no recovery of the current demand environment, other than maybe some seasonality and for -- and if markets were to accelerate in the second half or at some other point, we'll certainly be ready to jump on it.

所以，在展望中，我們認為謹慎地假設當前的需求環境有利有弊，正如Rich所說，風能可能會稍微減弱，也可能有些市場會稍微好轉。但總體而言，當前的需求環境沒有復甦，除了一些季節性因素——如果市場在下半年或其他時間點加速成長，我們肯定會做好準備。

And then I guess, second question on the Industrial Motion margins, you called out MRO activity. I mean is that just strictly a function of mix? Are you all able to offer more services now that you have a much broader portfolio in that part of the market? Any color there would be helpful.

然後我想，關於工業運動利潤率的第二個問題，您提到了維護、維修和大修（MRO）活動。我的意思是，這僅僅是產品組合的函數嗎？既然你們現在在這個市場領域擁有了更廣泛的產品組合，你們是否能夠提供更多服務？任何細節都會有所幫助。

Yes. I would say a couple of things. Certainly, the services business is -- it's aftermarket business, so it tends to be, relatively speaking, better from a mix standpoint. I would say that's one. We would say the margins last year were reflecting some activities that were going on, the consolidation of our chain facilities and some structural improvement work we were doing that we're starting to kind of see the benefits of as we move forward to this year. And then probably the last point would be Industrial Motion did perform a little bit better from an organic volume standpoint. So obviously, they had a little bit more volume to work with or less of a decline to deal with, if you will. And as we move forward to next year, we'll probably see relatively more resiliency in Industrial Motion margins versus bearings, is because we do expect bearings to be down a little bit more organically because of the wind situation year-on-year. And then obviously, we do have a bit of a higher fixed cost base in the bearing business, so a little more sensitive to volume there than in the Industrial Motion business.

是的。我想說幾點。當然，服務業務是售後市場業務，所以從產品組合的角度來看，它相對會更好。我想說這是其中一點。去年的利潤率反映了一些正在進行的活動，包括我們連鎖設施的整合以及我們正在進行的一些結構性改進工作，隨著今年的推進，我們開始看到這些工作的好處。最後一點，從有機銷售的角度來看，Industrial Motion 的表現確實略好一些。顯然，他們有更大的銷量可以應對，或者說，他們要應對的下滑幅度更小一些。展望明年，我們可能會看到 Industrial Motion 的利潤率相對於軸承業務更具彈性，因為我們預計，由於風力發電的影響，軸承業務的有機利潤率將比去年同期略有下降。此外，顯然，軸承業務的固定成本基數更高，因此對銷售的敏感度比 Industrial Motion 業務更高一些。

But it's been a lot of initiatives we've been working on to get those margins up. We do view both segments as north of 20% EBITDA margin businesses, and we were just happy to see the nice step-up in Q4.

但我們一直在努力提高利潤率。我們確實認為這兩個部門的EBITDA利潤率都在20%以上，我們很高興看到第四季度的良好成長。

Our next question comes from David Raso from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

When I look at the margins that are being given, if you had told me organic down 6.5%, obviously a drag, but price-cost neutral while it's happening and then acquisitions come in relatively favorable on margins, I probably would have thought maybe decremental margins 40% or so. But I see the implied guidance is nearly 60% decrementals. And if you told me 60%, I would have figured there must be some negative price-cost, but you're saying there isn't.

當我查看給出的利潤率時，如果您告訴我有機利潤下降6.5%，這顯然是一個拖累，但在發生這種情況時價格成本中性，並且收購對利潤率相對有利，我可能會認為利潤率可能會下降40%左右。但我發現隱含的指導值是下降了近60%。如果您告訴我60%，我會認為一定存在一些負價格成本，但您說沒有。

Can you help us understand why the decremental would be that large if price-cost is neutral? And I assume it's something with mix, maybe renewables a little more profitable than we think. And then the follow-up, the cadence, the cadence of that, for the year. Like if I think about how low the margins are in the first half of the year versus second half, I'm thinking more year-over-year when I think about decrementals. So I'm just trying to get a sense, how much is it front half loaded, the weakness year-over-year, on the decrementals? And again, why would the decrementals be that weak with price-cost neutral?

如果價格成本保持中性，您能否解釋一下，為什麼降幅會這麼大？我猜想這與多種因素有關，例如再生能源的利潤率可能比我們想像的要高一些。然後是後續情況，以及全年降幅的節奏。例如，如果我考慮上半年與下半年相比利潤率有多低，那麼當我考慮降幅時，我更多地考慮的是同比。所以我只是想了解一下，上半年的降幅，也就是同比降幅的疲軟程度，究竟有多大？再說一次，如果價格成本保持中性，為什麼降幅會這麼弱？

Yes, sure, David. This is Phil. I'll take at least the first part there. So on the decrementals, I mean, first of all, great observation in terms of what the guidance implies. But we've got acquisitions and currency contributing positively, and then obviously, the volume declines are negative. So if you sort of assign margins to each of the components, actually, the organic decrementals are closer to 40%. So kind of closer to what you'd expect in, call it, a year or 2 of a slowdown, if you will. But it was just sort of -- the acquisitions will come in, positively speaking, net higher than our than our adjusted EBITDA margins. Currency will be probably a little bit more modest, but the net organic incremental or decremental should be right around -- closer to 40%, as you pointed out, and that's sort of what's embedded in it.

是的，當然，David。我是 Phil。我至少會先談第一部分。關於遞減部分，首先，我對於指引所暗示的內容有著很好的觀察。但是，我們的收購和貨幣因素帶來了正向貢獻，而銷售的下降顯然是負向的。所以，如果你把利潤率分配給每個組成部分，實際上，有機遞減部分接近 40%。這更接近你預期的，也就是一兩年的經濟放緩期。但這只是——從積極的角度來說，收購帶來的淨利潤將高於我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。貨幣因素的影響可能會稍微溫和一些，但淨有機遞增或遞減部分應該在 40% 左右，正如你所指出的，這大概就是其中的含意。

And it's really a combination of lower organic volumes. You've got to overcome that. We talked about slightly positive pricing for the year, cost moderating, but still seeing labor inflation, still seeing some inflation in other input costs that we'll have to overcome as well. But net-net, with the volume and the kind of neutral price-cost outlook, we'll see organic decrementals kind of around that 40% range, kind of plus or minus.

這實際上是有機銷量下降的綜合影響。你必須克服這一點。我們談到了今年的價格略有上漲，成本有所緩和，但勞動成本仍在上漲，其他投入成本也仍在上漲，這些我們都必須克服。但整體而言，考慮到銷售量和中性的價格成本前景，我們預期有機銷售的下降幅度將在40%左右，上下浮動。

And then as far as sort of progression for the year, as we talked about, low to mid 18% margins for the year, which would be sort of 120 or 130, 140 lower than 2023, and I think we probably see, I would say, some similar margin performance as we move through the year. I mean I would say we wouldn't expect any of the quarters -- certainly, in the first quarter, I think, will be down on an order of magnitude of what we'd expect the full year to be down by, and probably do a little bit better in the fourth quarter, but be pretty close across the board.

至於全年的進展，正如我們之前提到的，全年利潤率將在18%左右，比2023年低1.2%、1.3%甚至1.4%。我認為，隨著全年的推進，我們可能會看到類似的利潤率表現。我的意思是，我們預計任何一個季度的利潤率都不會——當然，我認為第一季的利潤率會比我們預期的全年利潤率下降一個數量級，第四季度可能會略有好轉，但總體來看，利潤率應該會非常接近。

That's interesting. You would think as the renewables in the guide flatten out, and the revenues in the back half of the year that would take a little of pressure off the margin decline. But you're saying that's not the case. It's a common, similar year-over-year margin drag throughout the year.

這很有意思。你可能會認為，隨著再生能源在指南中的佔比趨於平穩，以及下半年的收入成長，利潤率下滑的壓力會有所減輕。但你說的情況並非如此。利潤率下滑是一個普遍存在的現象，全年利潤率較去年同期下滑的情況類似。

Well, I think it -- I think in the fourth quarter, yes, I think it should be a little bit better as we move into the back half and certainly into the fourth quarter. And so as you look at that full year implied guide, probably in line with it kind of -- maybe a little more in the first half than that and then a little less in the second half, is probably a good way to look at it.

嗯，我認為——是的，我認為第四季的情況應該會好一些，因為我們進入下半年，當然是進入第四季了。所以，當你看全年隱含指引時，可能與之一致——上半年可能略高一些，下半年略低一些，這可能是個好的看法。

Our next question comes from Steve Barger from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

The EPS guide of down 15% is worse than the pandemic and kind of in line with the industrial recession in 2015. So my question is, how confident are you in modeling the first half 40% decline in wind relative to profitability? And understanding that you don't have great back half visibility, what's your confidence level that this guidance covers worst-case scenarios?

每股盈餘預測下降15%，比疫情期間的預測更糟糕，也與2015年的工業衰退時期大致相同。所以我的問題是，您對上半年風電獲利能力下降40%的預測有多大信心？考慮到您對下半年的預測不太清晰，您對該預測涵蓋最壞情況的信心有多大？

I think on wind, we were down in the same ballpark in the fourth quarter. It's in our margin results, and then obviously got the seasonal impact of the rest of the company being somewhat depressed in the fourth quarter, which we would expect to step up there in the first quarter. So I think for where revenue was in the fourth quarter and a slight decline in the first half of this year, which we feel pretty good about, and again, we have -- it's one of the markets where we have more backlog visibility than average, I think we have that modeled pretty accurately. And maybe we have some upside if we can get some more cost out, perform better, but not an enormous amount of upside there.

我認為風電業務在第四季的下滑幅度大致相同。這體現在利潤率上，而且顯然也受到了公司其他業務在第四季度略有低迷的季節性影響，我們預計這些影響在第一季會有所緩解。所以，我認為就第四季度的收入以及今年上半年的略微下滑而言，我們對此感覺相當良好。而且，我們在這個市場中，積壓訂單的可視性高於平均水平，我認為我們對這一情況的模型相當準確。如果我們能夠進一步降低成本，提高業績，或許還能獲得一些上漲空間，但上漲空間不會太大。

I would say the second half -- the second half on that would largely depend on where the volume lands out. And again, since we've got it modeled flattish, we don't really have any improvement or deterioration in margins and EPS contribution from that in the first half to the second half. And sorry, I cut you off on your follow-up.

我想說的是下半年——下半年的情況很大程度取決於銷量。再說一次，由於我們模型的走勢較為平緩，所以從上半年到下半年，我們的利潤率和每股盈餘貢獻實際上沒有任何改善或惡化。抱歉，我打斷了你的後續問題。

I was just going to -- what I'm trying to get to, I guess, is, what surprised you as 4Q or early part of this year progressed. How are you handicapping a more broad-based slowdown? Or do you really view this as the concentration in both wind and China as being the primary driver of how you're guiding?

我只是想問——我想問的是，今年第四季度，也就是年初，有什麼事情讓您感到驚訝？您如何應對更廣泛的經濟放緩？或者您真的認為，風電和中國市場的集中度才是您預期的主要驅動因素嗎？

No, I think to the earlier -- the first question from Steve, we were down 5% organically in the fourth quarter. That had a pretty negative wind sentiment -- wind actual in it. We've got that same negative wind actual in the first half, and we've got a 6.5% in for the full year organically. So slightly worse all in versus where we've been the last quarter and the trend line we've been on. Probably even a little more worse than that outlook when you factor in the wind comps get a lot easier in the second half. So that's what it's based on, is really the fourth quarter actual.

不，我想回答史蒂夫之前提出的第一個問題，我們第四季的有機收入下降了5%。這主要是因為市場對風電的預期——也就是實際風電收入——相當負面。上半年的實際風電收入也出現了同樣的負面情況，而全年有機收入則下降了6.5%。所以，整體來看，與上一季的狀況以及我們一直以來的趨勢線相比，情況略有惡化。如果考慮到下半年風電可比價格會下降很多，情況可能還會更糟。所以，我們得出的結論是基於第四季的實際收入。

Okay. Just a quick one. Part of the mitigation strategy is outgrowth. What specific end markets are you targeting? Or where do you see opportunity to help mitigate this?

好的。我簡單問一下。緩解策略的一部分是成長。您瞄準的是哪些具體的終端市場？或者您認為有哪些機會可以幫助緩解這種情況？

Yes. Certainly, I think the same ones you've heard us talking about, general industrial, a lot of smaller things in there, food and beverage, automation, et cetera, the marine business. We had a good fourth quarter in Aerospace. As you know, historically, we're heavily weighted to defense, which tends to mute our swings. But we're -- we've been moving for some time more into the commercial side and looking to outgrow that passenger rail off-highway markets, we do well and we like off-highway markets, but obviously, cyclical on that side.

是的。當然，我想就是你們聽到我們談論的那些，通用工業，裡面有很多小東西，像是食品飲料、自動化等等，還有海洋業務。我們在航空航太領域的第四季表現不錯。正如你們所知，從歷史上看，我們主要投資國防領域，這往往會抑制我們的波動。但一段時間以來，我們一直在向商用領域邁進，並希望超越客運鐵路和非公路用車市場。我們做得很好，我們也看好非公路用車市場，但顯然，這方面是週期性的。

So -- and again, I repeat, we're still believers long term in renewable energy, and actually renewable energy, including solar, grew in '23, slightly. And all that growth was in the first half and the second half was down significantly. But you'll continue to see us be ready for the bottoming and return of that market as well.

所以——我再說一遍，我們仍然長期看好再生能源。實際上，包括太陽能在內的再生能源在2023年略有成長。而且所有成長都集中在上半年，下半年則大幅下降。但你會看到，我們將繼續為市場觸底做好準備。

Yes. Maybe the other point I'd make, Steve, would be around the segments, too. We've been building the Industrial Motion business for some time, and as we look ahead to 2024, as we talked about the organic guide being down 6.5% at the midpoint would expect Industrial Motion to do better than that, Bearings do a little bit worse, Bearings being impacted by wind and China in particular. But the Industrial Motion doing a little bit better is really a reflection of the diversity of that business, the portfolio, the automation business we have in there, linear motion business we have in there, the services business. So I think the evolution of the portfolio, if you will, has -- should be beneficial to us as well as we move forward.

是的。史蒂夫，我想說的另一點可能也與細分市場有關。我們打造工業傳動業務已經有一段時間了，展望2024年，正如我們之前提到的，有機成長指引在中點下降了6.5%，我們預計工業傳動業務的表現會更好，而軸承業務的表現會略差一些，尤其受到風能和中國市場的影響。但工業傳動業務表現略好實際上反映了該業務的多樣性，包括產品組合、自動化業務、線性傳動業務以及服務業務。所以我認為，產品組合的演變，如果你願意這麼說的話，應該對我們以及我們的未來發展都有好處。

As you look across our market chart there, I think with the exception of on-highway, which, as you know, we've been looking more to hold our position on on-highway markets and outgrow the others organically and inorganically, so shrinking it as a part of the portfolio. There's elements of the other ones that have been a part of our targeted growth and outgrowth.

縱觀我們的市場圖表，我認為除了公路用車市場之外，正如你所知，我們一直致力於保持我們在公路用車市場的地位，並通過有機增長和無機增長超越其他市場，因此將其作為投資組合的一部分進行縮減。其他市場的元素一直是我們目標成長和超越的一部分。

And 2 of our -- 2 of the ones that have contributed significantly for the last 10 years, renewable energy and China, both hit a significant pause in the middle of last year. But we've got good momentum in quite a few of the other markets. Don't see any market share issues as you look across our portfolio, and it's pretty normal for these markets to grow when you look over 3, 4-year time frames. But they usually don't grow linearly, and there's usually some ups and downs. And right now, we're in this mid-single digit down all in with China and renewable leading the way on it.

過去十年來，我們的兩個市場——再生能源和中國市場——做出了巨大貢獻，但在去年年中，這兩個市場都出現了顯著的停滯。但我們在其他一些市場仍然保持著良好的勢頭。縱觀我們的投資組合，並沒有發現任何市場佔有率問題。從3到4年的時間跨度來看，這些市場的成長非常正常。但它們通常不會呈線性增長，通常會有一些起伏。目前，我們的市場總體處於個位數左右的下降趨勢，其中中國和再生能源市場是主要驅動力。

Our next question comes from Bryan Blair from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的布萊恩布萊爾。

I appreciate all the color on end-market dynamics and some of the volatility there. You noted consistently there's underlying demand pressure and destocking that, I guess, continues to linger. And I'm sorry to belabor the point on destock, but can you remind us how long on average how many quarters you typically have to navigate destocking in your major markets and where we are right now relative to that norm?

我理解您對終端市場動態及其波動性的所有解讀。您一直強調，潛在的需求壓力和去庫存現象，我想，這種情況還會持續下去。很抱歉，我在這裡重複討論去庫存問題，但您能否提醒我們，貴公司在主要市場去庫存的平均週期通常是多少個季度？目前我們相對於這正常水準處於什麼水準？

I think I'd put it in both the demand and the destocking typically 6 to 8 quarters. And if you take price out, we're, fourth quarter, probably would have been 3 quarters in. So probably -- and again, we're not seeing anything imminent in the first half, but most likely you'd be forecasting something either in the second half or the start of 2025 to invert and go back to the positive versus the negative on the restocking.

我認為，需求和去庫存化通常需要6到8個季度。如果扣除價格因素，第四季可能已經過了3​​個季度。所以，我們可能——再說一次，我們預計上半年不會出現任何短期變化，但最有可能的是，下半年或2025年初會出現一些反轉，庫存補充將回到正增長而非負增長的階段。

Okay. That's fair. Appreciate that. Obviously, very active 2023 in terms of your M&A strategy. And we're particularly intrigued by Des-Case and Lagersmit, and I apologize if I'm mispronouncing either of those. But maybe touch on the synergies that those new solutions or platforms offer with your portfolio and how they influence organic and inorganic growth potential going forward.

好的。很公平，非常感謝。顯然，就您的併購策略而言，2023 年非常活躍。我們對 Des-Case 和 Lagersmit 特別感興趣，如果我讀錯了這兩個名字，請原諒。但或許您可以談談這些新解決方案或平台與您的投資組合產生的協同效應，以及它們如何影響未來的有機和無機成長潛力。

Your pronunciation was fine. It's probably at least as good as mine. So you did well there. On Des-Case, U.S.-centric business, goes through primarily in the U.S. bearing distributors. So the share in the U.S., much of the same customer base. I think there's certainly some things that we can do there to increase the pull-through from distributors, but not really a channel play so much as it would be -- it's an upsell. And we have people in all of their end-markets, and we have hundreds of them and they had more like 20. And so the ability to cross-sell in the U.S., pull that through our distribution, I think, is significant.

你的發音很好，至少跟我的一樣好。所以你做得很好。 Des-Case 的業務以美國為中心，主要在美國透過經銷商進行。所以在美國的市場份額，客戶群基本上相同。我認為我們當然可以做一些事情來增加經銷商的拉動效應，但實際上並非像預期的那樣完全依靠管道——這是一種追加銷售。我們在他們所有的終端市場都有人手，我們有數百人，而他們只有二十多人。因此，我認為，在美國進行交叉銷售，透過我們的分銷管道進行銷售，其能力至關重要。

And then the bigger play is taking them into our global distribution channels, and I think a lot of early enthusiasm from that from our global distributor partners.

然後，更大的舉措是將它們納入我們的全球分銷管道，我認為我們的全球分銷商合作夥伴對此表現出很大的早期熱情。

Lagersmit, very focused on European, Nordic marine industry, and very focused on the OEM side of that, have not put as much energy and emphasis historically in capturing the aftermarket around the world. So the 2 opportunities there very much for us to sell more bearings into that Nordic marine market and other Industrial Motion products, but then also to do a better job of capturing their aftermarket around the world as well as penetrating some of the OEM base around the world as well.

拉鉤斯密特公司非常專注於歐洲和北歐的船舶工業，尤其專注於OEM市場，而過去在開拓全球售後市場方面投入的精力和精力較少。因此，我們有機會在北歐船舶市場和其他工業傳動產品中銷售更多軸承，同時更好地佔領其全球售後市場，並打入全球部分OEM市場。

So different synergy cases in both, but both very revenue based, pretty light on the operational side in the case of those 2. I'd add before we go to the next question, too, both really fit our portfolio well. Product innovation, product leadership positions, strong brand names within their niche markets, and a really good technical fit with the Timken portfolio.

所以，兩者的綜效有所不同，但都主要基於營收，營運方面則相對薄弱。在進入下一個問題之前，我想補充一點，兩者都非常適合我們的投資組合。產品創新、產品領導地位、利基市場中的強勢品牌，以及與鐵姆肯公司產品組合的良好技術契合度。

Our next question comes from Mike Shlisky from DA Davidson.

下一個問題來自 DA Davidson 的 Mike Shlisky。

I think you had mentioned in your remarks some head count reductions that have already taken place or about to take place. Just give a little bit more detail there. Are those permanent or just trying to flex with the current environment? And were they -- are they hourly or salaried people? I'm just kind of curious if you could give us some more kind of color around that.

我記得您在發言中提到了一些已經實施或即將實施的裁員。請您稍微詳細地講一下。這些裁員是永久性的，還是只是為了適應當下的環境？裁員對像是計時工還是領薪員工？您能否就此提供一些更詳細的資訊？

It would be -- so our demand started leveling off into the first quarter last year after 2.5, 3 years of hiring and then the market is difficult to hire, et cetera. So while the turnover had been -- running a higher turnover had been a challenge for us for those couple of years, it was -- it enabled us to attrit our workforce and reduce our workforce without forced reductions quicker last year. So largely in a lot of cases, we stopped hiring in the second quarter of last year and started capturing attrition.

情況就是這樣——所以我們的需求在招聘了2.5到3年後，在去年第一季開始趨於平穩，然後市場就很難招到人了，等等。雖然人員流動率——在那幾年裡，保持較高的人員流失率對我們來說是一個挑戰——但它確實——讓我們能夠在去年更快地進行員工減員，並且在不強制裁員的情況下減少員工數量。所以在很多情況下，我們在去年第二季就停止了招聘，並開始控制人員流失。

The answer to your question is what I quoted was operative factory hourly workers down 8%. We have captured some attrition in the salaried ranks as well, and we've done some restructuring on the salaried side as well, as I mentioned the integration of some of the businesses. But the 8% is factory workers. The predominance of that would be flex that we brought the head count down as wind demand and other things have softened.

對你的問題的回答是我之前提到的，工廠小時工減少了8%。我們也注意到了受薪員工隊伍的人員流失，我們也對受薪員工隊伍進行了一些重組，正如我之前提到的一些業務的整合。但這8%是工廠工人。這主要是由於風電需求和其他因素疲軟，我們靈活地減少了員工人數。

And then there is a piece of it that is structural. I talked about the plant consolidations that we had happening last year as well as those that we have planned for this year. But the predominance of it would be flexing our workforce and head count through the demand.

還有一部分是結構性的。我談到了我們去年進行的工廠整合，以及我們今年計劃進行的工廠整合。但其中最主要的是根據需求靈活調整我們的勞動力和員工人數。

And most of that would have been second half weighted. So a little bit in the second -- really none in the first quarter, probably flat or maybe up head count in the first quarter, down a little in the second and down pretty significantly in the third and fourth, and I expect we'll be down a little bit more at the end of the first quarter.

其中大部分是下半年的加權值。所以第二季會有一點下降——第一季實際上沒有下降，第一季人數可能持平或增加，第二季略有下降，第三季和第四季下降幅度相當大，我預計第一季末的下降幅度還會更大。

Great. And then for my follow-up, and you just touched on the 4 plant consolidations you've got in the pipeline, I think, for this year. Can you maybe kind of bucket for us, maybe once it's all said and done the annualized EBITDA potential impact that you might save perhaps for the full year '25 and beyond? And also, are there any onetime cash needs or need in '24 to make these (inaudible) impact?

好的。接下來我想問一下，您剛剛提到了今年計劃進行的四項工廠合併。您能否為我們大致估算一下，這些合併完成後，您在2025年全年及以後可能節省的年度EBITDA（息稅折舊攤銷前利潤）的潛在影響？另外，為了實現這些（聽不清楚）影響，是否有任何一次性的現金需求，或是2024年的需求？

Was that in regard to the plant consolidations?

這是關於工廠合併嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. Nothing significant on the cash or restructuring side. We generally are doing a little bit of this every year. We had some in last year, a little bit more this year. So there is some but nothing out of the line of what we've done the last few years.

好的。現金或重組方面沒有重大措施。我們通常每年都會做一些這樣的事情。去年有一些，今年稍微多一點。所以是有一些，但與過去幾年的做法相比沒有太大區別。

And I would say we don't generally talk about exact cost-out targets with those. We have them, but we embed it more in our margin target, and it's all part of our objective to get margins up to 20% through cycle. And certainly, what we did the last few years was a contributor to our margins last year of 19.7%, and it would contribute to margins in 2025 but wouldn't give us exact number on it.

我想說的是，我們通常不會談論具體的成本目標。我們有成本目標，但我們更多地將其嵌入到利潤率目標中，而這都是我們在整個週期內將利潤率提高到20%的目標的一部分。當然，過去幾年我們所做的貢獻，去年為我們的利潤率貢獻了19.7%，到2025年，它也會為利潤率貢獻，但我們沒有給出具體的數字。

And the only thing I would add, Mike, is on our guide, the delta between GAAP and adjusted for the year is around $0.90. $0.75 of that is roughly the deal amortization and the other $0.15 would be kind of normal restructuring type expenses we would need to incur to do the plant rationalizations that Rich talked about. And that's already in line with what we would typically do in a given year.

麥克，我唯一想補充的是，根據我們的指南，GAAP 和年度調整後的差額約為 0.90 美元。其中 0.75 美元大致是交易攤銷，另外 0.15 美元是我們為實施 Rich 提到的工廠合理化而需要承擔的正常重組費用。這已經與我們在特定年份的正常運作一致了。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

I just want to make sure I heard the organic growth cadence for the year. So I think you guys said flattish in the second half, but maybe I misheard that. And I'm just curious, as it relates to renewables, I think of that business as being a little bit longer cycle for you. When do you think you have visibility on that business as the year progresses?

我只是想確認一下今年的有機成長節奏。你們說下半年會持平，但我可能聽錯了。我很好奇，就再生能源而言，我認為這項業務的週期對你們來說會更長一些。您認為今年什麼時候能對這項業務有清楚的了解？

Yes, I'll take the second part first. We would usually have close to 6 months of order visibility within wind, and (technical difficulty) to our outlook for the first half of the year, certainly, you can do a little bit better, but it's not going to be double digits better. But the second half remains pretty open and that could go favorably, certainly.

是的，我先談第二部分。風電領域，我們的訂單預期通常接近6個月，而（由於技術困難）我們對上半年的展望當然可以略有改善，但不會達到兩位數的增長。但下半年的前景仍然相當明朗，而且肯定會有好轉。

Yes. And I would say on the organic progression, Joe, quarterly, so midpoint of the guide is down 6.5% for the year. Think of the first half as being down double digits, both in the first quarter and the second quarter, probably a little worse in the first quarter just with the comps. And then we would flatten out as we move into the back half of the year.

是的。喬，我想說的是，按季度來看，有機增長是按季度計算的，所以全年指引的中點是下降6.5%。上半年的銷售額將下降兩位數，第一季和第二季都是如此，如果僅從可比較數據來看，第一季的銷售額可能會更糟一些。然後，隨著進入下半年，銷售額將趨於穩定。

Okay. Got it. That's clear. And then Phil, maybe just a follow-up on just the price-cost commentary. Is there anything we need to be aware of from a cadence standpoint as the year progresses? Like you have started to see some commodities to play, but that usually takes a little bit of time before you see it in your P&L. So any commentary on just price/cost as the year progresses?

好的。明白了。很清楚。然後菲爾，也許可以跟進一下價格成本的評論。隨著時間的流逝，從節奏的角度來看，我們需要注意什麼嗎？例如，您已經開始看到一些大宗商品的上漲，但這通常需要一段時間才能在損益表中體現。那麼，隨著時間的推移，您對價格/成本有什麼評論嗎？

No. I would say we finished a really strong pricing year in '23, north of 3% for the year. We were north of 2% in the fourth quarter. We do have slight positive pricing in for 2024 and that would be net of any anticipated index or pass-through givebacks we may have to give.

不。我想說，2023年我們的定價表現非常強勁，全年漲幅超過3%。第四季的漲幅超過2%。 2024年的定價確實略有上漲，這還不包括我們可能不得不給予的任何預期指數或轉嫁回饋。

We still think we'll net slightly positive pricing. So that would be slightly positive, think north of 50 bps, probably more in Industrial Motion -- a little bit more Industrial Motion than Bearings just because of the way the pricing dynamics are working in the 2 segments. But I feel pretty good about some of the pricing already in, for example, in the first quarter that we've put in through some of our markets and channels.

我們仍然認為我們的定價將略有上漲。也就是說，價格上漲幅度應該會略有上漲，預計超過50個基點，工業傳動部門的漲幅可能更大——工業傳動部門的漲幅會比軸承部門略高一些，這主要是因為這兩個部門的定價機制不同。但我對一些已經實現的定價感到相當滿意，例如第一季我們透過部分市場和通路實現的定價。

And obviously, if commodity prices were to decline significantly, there would be a little bit of risk there, but the benefit on the cost side would typically outweigh that to us and probably be a net positive to us just the way our pricing mechanisms work now. So it's a good story. It's a more the flatter price-cost environment, '24 than '23. We did see significant positivity in '23 with material and logistics favorable pricing up, cost moderating. I think we'll see a flatter price/cost curve in '24 but not negative. I mean we do -- we would expect it to be flat to slightly positive, helping us to offset some of the volume declines we're anticipating.

顯然，如果大宗商品價格大幅下跌，確實會存在一些風險，但成本方面的收益通常會超過我們承受的風險，而且按照我們目前的定價機制，這很可能會對我們產生淨利。所以，這是一個好消息。 2024年的價格成本環境比2023年更平坦。我們確實在2023年看到了顯著的正面影響，材料和物流方面利好價格上漲，成本也趨於緩和。我認為2024年的價格成本曲線會比較平坦，但不會是負值。我的意思是，我們預計它會持平或略微正值，這有助於我們抵消部分預期的銷售下降。

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo。

Just wanted to go back to the commentary -- just maybe on the first half, I just wanted to unpack that a little bit more. I think earlier you talked about not seeing any catalyst to suggest kind of an improvement here in your guidance. And I totally understand that maybe there's limited visibility. But as you think about some of your customers may be focusing on heavy industries and off-highway given I think you've unpacked wind pretty well. Just in those segments, to the extent that your customers have been doing some of their own destocking here in the 3Q, 4Q time frame, what -- are you not -- I guess, what are you hearing from your customers? And why is there not kind of a step-up maybe in the first half versus kind of the second half dynamic as they're kind of done destocking and maybe moving to just underlying demand that's maybe a little bit weak but not to the same degree?

我想回到剛才的評論——也許只是關於上半年，我只是想更詳細地解釋一下。我記得您之前提到過，在您的業績指引中沒有看到任何催化劑來表明業績有所改善。我完全理解，現在的前景可能有限。但考慮到您的一些客戶可能專注於重工業和非公路用電領域，我認為您在風電方面做得相當不錯。就這些領域而言，考慮到您的客戶在第三季和第四季一直在進行去庫存，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？為什麼上​​半年沒有出現像下半年那樣的加速成長呢？畢竟他們已經完成了去庫存，可能轉向了潛在需求，雖然需求可能略微疲軟，但程度不如下半年。

Yes. I would -- I think it's a good question that I would say our customer sentiment is probably in total a little more bullish than what our 6.5% would be, and again, put wind aside as you did, I would say there's probably a little heavier optimism there. But we were just down 5% in the fourth quarter, a tougher comp in the first quarter. And looking at order flow, we're not seeing where that is reversed in the next couple of months. So we aren't baking that optimism in until we start to see it.

是的。我想問這個問題很好，我認為我們的客戶情緒總體上可能比6.5%的預期要樂觀一些。而且，像您說的，撇開風能不談，我認為樂觀情緒可能更強烈一些。但我們第四季的銷售額僅下降了5%，與第一季相比更加艱難。從訂單流來看，我們預計未來幾個月不會出現逆轉。所以我們不會在看到逆轉之前就讓這種樂觀情緒充分發揮作用。

And I'd say, historically, in off-highway in particular, I would say it's, historically, Angel, in off-highway in particular, as you know, the second half it's not typically -- it'd be a little unusual to see a big acceleration in the second half that it would normally be kind of early in the year as opposed to in the third or fourth quarter. But -- and that would have entered into it as well.

我想說，從歷史上看，尤其是在非公路用車領域，我想說，從歷史上看，安吉爾，尤其是在非公路用車領域，正如你所知，下半年通常不會出現大幅增長——下半年出現大幅增長有點不尋常，因為通常情況下，下半年的增長會比較早，而不是在第三季度或第四季度。但是——這也會算進去的。

That's very helpful. And then maybe switching to capital allocation. Could you just talk a little bit about your M&A pipeline and maybe how that's shaping out for 2024 and how you maybe kind of see that impacting your ability to do more repurchases with your higher free cash flow?

這很有幫助。然後也許可以轉向資本配置。您能否簡單談談您的併購計劃，以及它在2024年的前景如何，以及您認為這會如何影響您利用更高的自由現金流進行更多回購的能力？

A few comments there. I'd say, first, our focus is really on executing and delivering on what we've done the last couple of years. That being said, we still have the balance sheet and the cash flow and the management bandwidth to continue in '24. And our bias still remains to M&A over buyback. We're looking at a better cash flow year this year, as I said, a step up there.

幾點評論。首先，我想說的是，我們的重點是執行和兌現過去幾年所取得的成果。話雖如此，我們仍然擁有充足的資產負債表、現金流量和管理資源，足以在2024年繼續成長。我們仍然傾向於併購而非回購。正如我所說，我們預計今年的現金流會更好，這是一個進步。

The M&A market has been relatively slow the last 1.5 years to 2 years. We have managed probably even a little longer than that going back to COVID. We've managed to do well through that time. I would say there's a level of optimism that it's going to pick up as a market not Timken. But I would still say we have not seen an increase in inbound activity. It's been more us on the outbound side.

過去1.5到2年，併購市場相對低迷。追溯到新冠疫情，我們可能比這還要慢。在那段時間裡，我們表現得很好。我想說，大家對市場復甦抱持一定樂觀態度，認為市場復甦，而不是鐵姆肯。但我仍然認為，我們並沒有看到對內活動增加。對外活動方面，我們做的更多。

So we've done at least one acquisition every year for 14 years. And while we're here in February, I would say there's no reason to believe we would not be able to continue that even if the market remains relatively slow and that we should be able to get something both strategic and financially attractive done this year.

14年來，我們每年至少進行一次收購。雖然現在是二月份，但我想說，即使市場仍然相對低迷，我們也沒有理由相信我們無法繼續保持這種勢頭，而且我們今年應該能夠完成一些既具有戰略意義又具有財務吸引力的項目。

Yes. And on the buyback, we have about 2.7 million shares remaining on our authorization. So we have the ability to continue to buy back shares if the M&A is not there. Obviously, we have a bias for the M&A, just with what it can do for us from a portfolio standpoint, from a diversification standpoint. But the buyback remains an option, and we've bought back over 4% of our outstanding each of the last 2 years. And we'll see how the year plays out, but it certainly continues to be an option for us.

是的。關於回購，我們目前授權的回購量約為270萬股。所以，即使沒有併購，我們也能繼續回購。顯然，我們偏向併購，因為它能從投資組合的角度，從多元化的角度為我們帶來好處。但回購仍然是個選擇，過去兩年我們每年都回購了超過4%的流通股。我們將拭目以待今年的走勢，但這對我們來說無疑仍是一個選擇。

The next question comes from Chris Dankert from Loop Capital.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Chris Dankert。

Just a quick clarification, I suppose. The impact of facility consolidations, that is assumed in kind of the base 40% organic decremental, correct?

我想，我只是想簡單澄清一下。設施整合的影響，是以40%的有機遞減率來假設的，對嗎？

Yes. Correct.

是的，正確。

Okay. Perfect. And then...

好的。完美。然後…

Just real quick, Chris, that would be a combination of the savings that we would achieve from the consolidation. And then with some of the new facilities that we talked about, the expansions, there is some ramp associated with those. It can be a bit of a headwind as well. So you'll have them going a little bit both ways through a good part of 2024, and probably full run rate benefit as we get into '25.

克里斯，簡單來說，這將是我們透過整合實現的節省，以及我們之前談到的一些新設施和擴建項目帶來的一些收益提升。這也可能帶來一些阻力。因此，在2024年的大部分時間裡，這些專案都會有一定程度的效益，而進入2025年，我們可能會獲得滿載的營運效益。

Got it. That makes sense. And then I guess just quickly on SG&A. I know there's efforts to kind of tamp some of that down, but is it fair to kind of assume the starting point for the year in 1Q is over $200 million? Or maybe just any comments on how to think about SG&A through the year here?

明白了。這很有道理。然後我想快速談談銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。我知道有人在努力降低這部分費用，但假設第一季的年度起點超過 2 億美元是否公平？或者您能談談如何看待全年的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)？

Yes. I mean I would say, generally speaking, for SG&A, it's probably a good way to look at it. I mean, it's -- we've been impacted by the by the acquisition. So you've seen SG&A absolute dollars go up just as we brought more businesses into the portfolio. But as we move into '24, I mean, I think we'll be jumping off from the '23 level, get to the second quarter is typically when our annual pay increases kick in, so you'll probably have a little bit of a headwind there. But staying pretty constant off that level.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，對於銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）來說，這可能是一個不錯的視角。我的意思是，我們受到了收購的影響。所以，隨著我們將更多業務納入投資組合，銷售、一般及行政費用的絕對金額也在上升。但隨著我們進入2024年，我的意思是，我認為我們將從2023年的水平躍升，到第二季度通常是我們年度薪酬增長開始的時候，所以你可能會遇到一些阻力。但會保持在這個水平上相當穩定。

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

I know this was covered a lot with the inventories. I'm just curious on your own inventories builds up 2% quarter-over-quarter. Revenue was down a little bit sequentially. I know there's a lot of folks on the inventories of the channel. Just curious how you're feeling about your growing inventories in 2024. And I know you have a big cash flow year maybe that's tied to it. Just curious how we should think about that as you kind of work through that through 2024.

我知道庫存問題已經討論過很多次了。我只是好奇你們的庫存較上季成長了2%。收入環比略有下降。我知道有很多人關注渠道庫存。我很好奇你對2024年庫存成長有何看法。我知道你們今年的現金流很高，這可能與此有關。我很好奇，當你在2024年解決這個問題時，我們應該如何看待這個問題。

Yes. First, I would say, a couple of quarters now, a few quarters, our supply chains are pretty close to normal. We have problems here and there, but nothing beyond the normal. So deliveries, response time, et cetera, all good. So we've got -- and as I said in my comments, we've got a really good focus on this and have for a couple of quarters. So we are planning to underproduce to revenue through the course of the year and that is factored into our decremental outlook that we would have a little lower production levels than the revenue and continue to see some positive cash generation from inventory.

是的。首先，我想說，最近幾個季度，我們的供應鏈已經非常接近正常。我們偶爾會遇到一些問題，但整體情況正常。所以，交貨、回應時間等等都很好。正如我在評論中所說，我們非常重視這個問題，而且已經持續了幾個季度。因此，我們計劃全年產量低於收入，這已計入我們的遞減預期，即產量將略低於收入，但庫存仍將產生一些正現金流。

Great. And sorry if this was covered. But EMEA, Europe only down 1% organically. It was the second quarter where you guys kind of report on a year-over-year basis just down 1%. Just curious if Europe feels more stable when we look at this organic growth that you're reporting relative to some of the economic data there, kind of what you're seeing over there with the end-markets in Europe?

太好了。如果報道了這一點，我很抱歉。但是歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）的有機成長僅下降了1%。第二季度，你們報告的年減僅1%。我只是好奇，當我們從你們報告的有機成長來看，相對於歐洲的一些經濟數據，例如你們在歐洲終端市場看到的情況，歐洲是否感覺更穩定？

Yes, I would say stable is a good word for it. It went down a little faster or softened a little faster than our other markets, but bounced back a little faster as well and has been -- it's been more stable, to your point, probably than the headlines. And certainly, Germany is probably a little softer for us than some other countries but still pretty good. Now again, a little lower comp than what some of our other geographies, particularly Asia is dealing with some very sizable growth comps in the last couple of years.

是的，我覺得用「穩定」來形容它再適合不過了。它比我們其他市場下滑得更快，或者說疲軟得更快，但反彈也更快，而且——正如你所說，它可能比新聞頭條報道的還要穩定。當然，德國市場對我們來說可能比其他一些國家市場疲軟一些，但仍然相當不錯。現在再說一次，比起我們其他一些地區，尤其是亞洲市場，它的年增率略低，而亞洲市場在過去幾年裡實現了非常可觀的成長。

We currently have no further questions. So I'd like to hand the call back to Mr. Neil Frohnapple for closing remarks. Over to you.

目前沒有其他問題了。接下來，我想把發言權交還給尼爾·弗羅納普爾先生，請他做最後發言。現在輪到您了。

Thanks, Bruno. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me. Thank you, and this concludes our call.

謝謝，布魯諾。感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您在今天的電話會議後還有其他問題，請與我聯絡。謝謝大家，我們的電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。謝謝。