Timken Co (TKR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Timken's fourth-quarter earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫艾米麗，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表鐵姆肯公司歡迎各位參加第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Mr. Frohnapple, you may begin your conference.

弗羅納普爾先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This is Neil Frohnapple, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位參加我們2025年第四季財報電話會議。這是鐵姆肯公司投資者關係副總裁尼爾·弗羅納普爾。感謝您今天蒞臨。

Before we begin our remarks this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation materials on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

在今天早上開始發言之前，我想指出，我們已經在公司網站上發布了演示材料，我們將在今天對季度業績進行回顧時參考這些材料。您也可以透過財報電話會議網路直播連結上的下載功能取得這些資料。

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Lucian Boldea; and Mike Discenza, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Lucian and Mike before we open up the call for your questions. (Operator Instructions)

今天陪同我的是鐵姆肯公司總裁兼執行長盧西安·博爾迪亞，以及我們的財務長麥克·迪斯肯扎。今天上午，在正式開始接受大家提問之前，盧西安和麥克將分別致開幕詞。（操作說明）

During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans, and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the timken.com website. We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials.

在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到有關我們未來財務業績、計劃和業務運營的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中對此進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 timken.com 網站上查閱。我們在新聞稿和簡報資料中加入了非GAAP財務資訊與其GAAP等效資訊之間的調節表。

Today's call is copyrighted by The Timken Company, and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call. Finally, note that we are planning to host an Investor Day on Wednesday, May 20, in New York City, so we hope that you will join us either virtually or in person. Please stay tuned for more details.

本次通話內容受鐵姆肯公司版權保護，未經明確書面許可，禁止以任何方式使用、錄製或傳播本次通話的任何部分。最後，請注意，我們計劃於 5 月 20 日星期三在紐約市舉辦投資者日活動，我們希望您能以線上或線下方式參加。請關注後續詳情。

With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in The Timken Company, and I will now turn the call over to Lucian.

在此，我謹感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的關注，現在我將把電話交給盧西安。

Thanks, Neil, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Timken and for joining us today. I would like to start by thanking our Timken team for their hard work and resilience. While 2025 presented a challenging market environment, our team executed with discipline, and we finished the year strong.

謝謝你，尼爾，大家早安。感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的關注，也感謝您今天蒞臨現場。首先，我要感謝鐵姆肯團隊的辛勤工作和堅韌的精神。儘管 2025 年市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們的團隊執行力強，最終取得了強勁的業績。

Turning to our results in the fourth quarter, we achieved adjusted earnings per share of $1.14, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range. Total sales in the fourth quarter were up 3.5% from last year. Organic revenue was up more than 1%. It was driven by higher pricing and volume growth in the Industrial Motion segment. We increased free cash flow to $141 million, enabling us to return $36 million of cash to shareholders and reduce debt by more than $100 million during the fourth quarter. The company ended the year with a strong balance sheet with net leverage at only 2 times, enabling us to continue our balanced approach to capital allocation.

回顧第四季度業績，我們實現了調整後每股收益 1.14 美元，超過了我們預期範圍的上限。第四季總銷售額比去年同期成長3.5%。有機收入成長超過1%。工業運動控制領域的價格上漲和銷售成長是推動這一成長的主要因素。我們將自由現金流增加到 1.41 億美元，使我們能夠在第四季向股東返還 3,600 萬美元現金，並減少超過 1 億美元的債務。公司年底資產負債表穩健，淨槓桿比率僅 2 倍，使我們能夠繼續採取平衡的資本配置方式。

Mike will take you through the details of our 2026 outlook, but we expect to generate organic revenue growth, strong free cash flow and higher margins. Overall, we expect adjusted EPS to increase around 8% at the midpoint of the guidance range.

Mike 將帶您詳細了解我們 2026 年的展望，但我們預計將實現有機收入成長、強勁的自由現金流和更高的利潤率。總體而言，我們預計調整後每股收益將成長約 8%，處於預期範圍的中點。

We see encouraging order activity across several industrial markets, and our backlog at the end of 2025 was up from the prior year. These trends support our expectation that customer demand will improve compared to 2025 and our outlook for organic sales to be up 2%. This reflects higher pricing and modest volume growth given the volatility of the ongoing freight situation. Despite macro uncertainty, our team is operating with urgency to execute our strategic initiatives and fulfill our commitments to delivering stronger performance in 2026.

我們看到多個工業市場的訂單活動令人鼓舞，2025 年底的積壓訂單比前一年增加。這些趨勢支持了我們的預期，與 2025 年相比，客戶需求將會改善，我們對有機銷售額成長 2% 的預期也印證了這一點。鑑於當前貨運情勢的波動性，反映出價格上漲和銷售成長較為溫和。儘管宏觀經濟情勢不明朗，但我們的團隊正以緊迫感執行我們的策略舉措，並履行我們對在 2026 年取得更佳業績的承諾。

We're making good progress on our near-term strategic initiatives, including the 80/20 portfolio work. Over time, we expect to exit underperforming businesses and prioritize our focus and resources on actions that will have the greatest impact to company margins and growth. Based on early results from this work, we have decided to extend the 80/20 discipline across our entire enterprise. This will include simplification of the portfolio and price optimization. While we are still early in the process, it has become clear that applying this 80-20 approach more comprehensively will be a major driver of value creation. I am very excited about the potential, but please keep in mind that it will take some time for the benefit to flow through to the bottom line.

我們在近期策略措施方面取得了良好進展，包括 80/20 投資組合工作。隨著時間的推移，我們預計會退出業績不佳的業務，並將我們的精力和資源優先投入到對公司利潤率和成長影響最大的行動中。根據這項工作的初步結果，我們決定將 80/20 原則推廣到我們整個企業。這將包括簡化投資組合和優化價格。雖然我們仍處於這個過程的早期階段，但已經很清楚，更全面地應用這種 80/20 方法將成為價值創造的主要驅動力。我對此潛力感到非常興奮，但請記住，收益需要一段時間才能最終體現在實際效益上。

As we shared last quarter, I see plenty of opportunity to raise Timken's organic growth trajectory by focusing on the fastest-growing verticals and regions. We will also continue to integrate acquisitions and drive synergies through global expansion of our acquired businesses. To support this objective, we recently announced targeted strategic leadership appointments to better align the organization with our primary growth drivers and serve customers more comprehensively as one Timken. New positions include the Chief Technology Officer, Vice President of Marketing, and Regional President. These additions to our leadership team directly support our growth strategy and will fuel innovation, strengthen commercial execution, and position us to capture greater share in key market verticals and regions.

正如我們上個季度所分享的，我認為透過專注於成長最快的垂直產業和地區，有很多機會可以提高鐵姆肯的有機成長軌跡。我們將繼續整合收購項目，並透過被收購業務的全球擴張來推動綜效。為了支持這一目標，我們最近宣布了有針對性的策略領導任命，以更好地使組織與我們的主要成長動力保持一致，並以一個統一的鐵姆肯公司的形式更全面地為客戶提供服務。新增職位包括首席技術長、行銷副總裁和區域總裁。這些新增的領導團隊成員將直接支持我們的成長策略，並推動創新，加強商業執行，使我們能夠在關鍵市場垂直領域和地區獲得更大的份額。

Together, we're energized by the many opportunities ahead to leverage Timken's strength and create new ways to drive improved performance. With that, let me turn over the call to Mike for a more detailed review of the results and outlook. Mike?

我們齊心協力，充滿動力，迎接未來的許多機遇，充分發揮鐵姆肯的優勢，創造新的方法來提升業績。接下來，我將把電話交給麥克，讓他對結果和前景進行更詳細的分析。麥克風？

Thanks, Lucian, and good morning, everyone. For the financial review, I'm going to start on slide 7 of the materials with a summary of our fourth quarter results. Overall, total revenue for the quarter was $1.11 billion, which is up 3.5% from last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 16%, and adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $1.14.

謝謝你，盧西安，大家早安。財務回顧部分，我將從資料的第 7 頁開始，概述我們第四季的業績。本季總營收為 11.1 億美元，比去年同期成長 3.5%。經調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 16%，本季經調整後的每股盈餘為 1.14 美元。

Turning to slide 8, let's take a closer look at our fourth quarter sales. Organically, sales were up 1.3% from last year. The increase was driven by higher pricing across both segments, and higher volumes in the Industrial Motion segment, which more than offset lower demand in Engineered Bearings. Looking at the rest of the revenue walk, foreign currency translation contributed more than 2% growth to the top line.

接下來請看第 8 張投影片，讓我們仔細看看第四季的銷售情況。從有機成長來看，銷售額比去年成長了1.3%。此次成長是由於兩個細分市場的價格上漲，以及工業運動細分市場銷售增加所致，足以抵消工程軸承需求的下降。從其他收入組成來看，外幣折算對營收成長貢獻了超過 2% 的份額。

On the right, you can see fourth quarter performance in terms of organic growth by region. In the Americas, our largest region, we were flat as growth in North America was offset by lower revenue in Latin America. In Asia Pacific, we were up 4% from last year as growth in India and other parts of the region more than offset lower revenue in China. And finally, we were up 4% in EMEA, led by solid growth from the Industrial Motion segment.

右側圖表顯示了第四季度各地區有機成長。在我們最大的地區美洲，由於北美地區的成長被拉丁美洲地區收入的下降所抵消，我們的業績持平。在亞太地區，我們比去年成長了 4%，因為印度和該地區其他地區的成長足以抵消中國收入的下降。最後，在工業運動控制部門的強勁成長帶動下，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額成長了 4%。

Turning to slide 9. Adjusted EBITDA of $178 million was flat with the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 16% of sales in the fourth quarter, compared to 16.6% of sales last year. Excluding the impact from currency, margins would have been nearly flat with the prior year.

翻到第9張投影片。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.78 億美元，與前一年持平。第四季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的 16%，而去年同期為銷售額的 16.6%。剔除匯率影響，利潤率與上年基本持平。

Let me comment a little further on a few of the different drivers on the EBITDA bridge you can see on this slide. Starting with the impact from mix, it was a notable headwind as OE shipments outperformed distribution in the quarter. And you may recall, we were lapping favorable mix in our defense business in the prior year.

讓我再就您在這張投影片上看到的 EBITDA 橋樑上的幾個不同驅動因素做一些補充說明。首先從產品組合的影響來看，這是一個明顯的阻力，因為本季 OE 出貨量超過了分銷出貨量。您可能還記得，前一年我們在國防業務方面取得了非常有利的組合。

With respect to pricing in the quarter, it was positive $25 million and added more than 2% to the top line in the quarter as we continue to put through pricing actions to mitigate the impact from tariffs. And as you can see on the slide, tariffs were a $30 million headwind versus last year, and costs were also higher sequentially, as expected.

本季定價方面，我們獲得了 2,500 萬美元的收益，並為本季營收成長了 2% 以上，因為我們繼續採取定價措施來減輕關稅的影響。正如你在幻燈片上看到的，關稅與去年相比造成了 3000 萬美元的不利影響，而且正如預期的那樣，成本也環比上升。

Looking at material and logistics, costs were notably lower versus last year, driven mostly by savings tactics in the Engineered Bearings segment. Moving to the SG&A and other line, expenses were down from last year, driven by cost reduction initiatives and lower accruals for bad debt.

從材料和物流方面來看，成本與去年相比明顯降低，這主要是由於工程軸承領域的節約策略所致。轉看銷售、管理及行政費用和其他費用，由於成本削減措施和壞帳準備金減少，費用較去年下降。

Now let's move to our business segment results, starting with Engineered Bearings on slide 10. Engineered Bearing sales were $714 million in the quarter, up 0.9% from last year. Currency translation added nearly 2%, while organic sales were down 1% as higher pricing was more than offset by lower volumes. Among market sectors, off-highway and renewable energy achieved the strongest gains versus last year. We also posted growth in aerospace and general industrial, while revenue was lower from last year across the distribution, on-highway, heavy industries, and rail sectors.

現在讓我們來看看業務部門的業績，首先是第 10 頁的工程軸承業務。本季工程軸承銷售額為 7.14 億美元，比去年同期成長 0.9%。匯率變動增加了近 2%，而有機銷售額下降了 1%，因為價格上漲被銷量下降所抵消。在各個市場領域中，非公路用車和再生能源與去年相比增幅最大。我們在航空航太和一般工業領域也實現了成長，而分銷、公路運輸、重工業和鐵路領域的收入則比去年有所下降。

Engineered Bearings' adjusted EBITDA was $115 million or 16.1% of sales in the fourth quarter, compared to $122 million or 17.2% of sales last year. Margins in the quarter were negatively impacted by unfavorable mix as well as incremental tariff costs, which continue to disproportionately impact the segment. On the positive side, cost savings and the benefit of higher pricing helped mitigate these margin headwinds.

Engineered Bearings 第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.15 億美元，佔銷售額的 16.1%，而去年同期為 1.22 億美元，佔銷售額的 17.2%。本季利潤率受到不利的產品組合以及不斷上漲的關稅成本的負面影響，這些因素繼續對該業務部門造成不成比例的影響。從正面的方面來看，成本節約和更高的定價帶來的好處有助於緩解這些利潤率方面的不利因素。

Now let's turn to Industrial Motion on slide 11. Industrial Motion sales were $397 million in the quarter, up 8.4% from last year. Organically, sales increased 5.6% driven by higher demand across most sectors and higher pricing, while currency translation was a benefit of 2.8%. The segment saw growth in the quarter across all product platforms and was led by strong regional gains in the Americas and Europe.

現在讓我們來看第 11 張投影片中的工業運動部分。該季度工業運動部門的銷售額為 3.97 億美元，比去年同期成長 8.4%。在有機成長方面，受大多數行業需求增加和價格上漲的推動，銷售額增長了 5.6%，而匯率變動帶來了 2.8% 的增長。該業務板塊在本季所有產品平台均實現成長，其中美洲和歐洲地區的強勁成長是主要驅動力。

Among market sectors, automation and aerospace achieved the strongest gains versus the prior year. We also generated growth in the off-highway and heavy industry sectors, while solar and distribution sales were down. The increase in segment margins reflect solid operational execution by the team in the quarter as well as the impact of higher volumes and pricing, which more than offset incremental tariff costs and unfavorable mix.

在各個市場領域中，自動化和航空航太領域與前一年相比增幅最大。我們在非公路用車和重工業領域也實現了成長，而太陽能和分銷領域的銷售額則有所下降。分部利潤率的提高反映了團隊在本季度穩健的營運執行，以及銷售和價格上漲的影響，這些因素足以抵消新增關稅成本和不利的產品組合。

Moving to slide 12, you can see that we generated operating cash flow of $183 million in the fourth quarter, and after a CapEx of $43 million, free cash flow was $141 million, up from last year. This brought our free cash flow to $406 million for the full year, an increase of $100 million from the prior year. Looking at the balance sheet, we reduced net debt by over $130 million during 2025 and ended the fourth quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2 times, which is at the middle of our targeted range.

翻到第 12 張投影片，可以看到我們在第四季產生了 1.83 億美元的營運現金流，在資本支出 4,300 萬美元之後，自由現金流為 1.41 億美元，比去年同期有所成長。這使得我們全年的自由現金流達到 4.06 億美元，比前一年增加了 1 億美元。從資產負債表來看，我們在 2025 年將淨負債減少了 1.3 億美元以上，第四季末淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2 倍，處於我們目標範圍的中部。

Now let's turn to the outlook for full year 2026 with a summary on slide 14. Starting on the sales outlook, we're planning for full year revenue to increase 2% to 4% in total. We're planning for currency to contribute around 1% to our revenue for the year, which reflects the weaker US dollar. Organically, we expect revenue to be up 2% at the midpoint, driven by higher volumes and pricing in both segments.

現在讓我們來看看 2026 年全年的展望，第 14 頁將對此進行總結。從銷售前景來看，我們計劃全年收入總共成長 2% 至 4%。我們預計匯率波動將占我們全年收入的 1% 左右，這反映了美元走弱的影響。從有機成長來看，我們預期營收將成長 2%（取中間值），這主要得益於兩個業務板塊銷售和價格的上漲。

On the bottom line, we expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.50 to $6, up 8% at the midpoint versus 2025. For modeling purposes, think of the full year adjusted EPS outlook to be split roughly 54% in the first half and 46% in the second half. And the outlook assumes year-over-year earnings growth every quarter this year.

總體而言，我們預計調整後每股收益將在 5.50 美元至 6 美元之間，中位數將比 2025 年增長 8%。為了方便建模，全年調整後的每股盈餘預期大致分為上半年 54% 和下半年 46%。該展望假設今年每季的獲利都將年增。

This earnings outlook implies that our 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be in the high 17% range at the midpoint, up from 17.4% in 2025. Note that the midpoint of the range implies an incremental margin of approximately 30% for the full year. For the first quarter, currency is estimated to add around 3% to the top line, while we expect organic sales and adjusted EBITDA margins to be relatively flat with last year.

這項獲利預期意味著，我們 2026 年合併調整 EBITDA 利潤率的中位數將達到 17% 以上，高於 2025 年的 17.4%。請注意，該範圍的中點意味著全年增量利潤率約為 30%。第一季度，匯率預計將使營收成長約 3%，而我們預計有機銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將與去年同期基本持平。

Moving to free cash flow, we expect to generate around $350 million for the full year or approximately 105% conversion on GAAP net income at the midpoint.

再來看自由現金流，我們預計全年將產生約 3.5 億美元的自由現金流，或以 GAAP 淨收入中位數計算，約 105%。

On slide 15, we provide an initial view on our 2026 organic sales outlook by market and sector, which includes the impact of both volumes and pricing. As Lucian indicated, we are seeing increasing order activity across several of these industrial markets, which supports our outlook for organic sales to be up 2% at the midpoint.

在第 15 張幻燈片中，我們提供了 2026 年按市場和行業劃分的有機銷售前景的初步展望，其中包括銷售和定價的影響。正如盧西安所指出的，我們看到這些工業市場中的幾個訂單活動都在增加，這支持了我們對有機銷售額成長2%的預期（中位數）。

Moving to slide 16, here we provide a bridge of the key drivers that walk our 2025 adjusted EPS to the 2026 outlook midpoint of $5.75. You can see the $0.25 positive impact from the organic sales change net of inflation, while currency is expected to add $0.05.

翻到第16張投影片，這裡我們概述了影響2025年調整後每股盈餘至2026年預測中位數5.75美元的關鍵驅動因素。您可以看到扣除通膨因素後的有機銷售額變化帶來的0.25美元正面影響，而匯率預計將帶來0.05美元的額外影響。

And finally, we're estimating a year-on-year positive impact from tariffs of approximately $0.10 to $0.15 per share. The trade situation continues to evolve, but we expect that our mitigation tactics will enable us to recapture the margin as we exit 2026. Please note that this estimate does not include the potential impact from the announcement earlier this week related to the new tariff agreement with India.

最後，我們預計關稅將帶來每股約 0.10 至 0.15 美元的年比正面影響。貿易狀況仍在不斷變化，但我們預計，到 2026 年底，我們的緩解策略將使我們能夠重新奪回利潤空間。請注意，此估算不包括本週稍早宣布的與印度達成的新關稅協議可能帶來的影響。

In summary, the company delivered better-than-expected fourth quarter results and the team is focused on generating stronger top and bottom line performance in 2026. Let me turn it back over to Lucian for some final remarks before we open the line for questions. Lucian?

總而言之，該公司第四季業績超出預期，團隊正致力於在 2026 年實現更強勁的營收和利潤成長。在開放提問環節之前，我先把麥克風交還給盧西安，讓他做最後的總結發言。盧西安？

Thanks, Mike. Our team is executing with urgency to position Timken for stronger growth and higher margins in 2026, and we see significant opportunities to improve both our top line and bottom line performance. I look forward to sharing more details with you soon at our Investor Day event in May.

謝謝你，麥克。我們的團隊正在爭分奪秒地執行各項工作，以使鐵姆肯公司在 2026 年實現更強勁的成長和更高的利潤率，我們看到了在提高營收和利潤方面的巨大機會。我期待在五月的投資者日活動上與您分享更多細節。

Thanks, Lucian. This concludes our formal remarks and will now open up the line for questions.

謝謝你，盧西安。我們的正式演講到此結束，現在將開放式提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

（操作說明）布萊恩·布萊爾，奧本海默。

To, I guess, level set a bit on demand trends, it would be great to hear how orders progressed through Q4, whether there was any kind of a lull in December shipments. You -- somewhat guarded against that with guidance, perhaps some of that hit took place in bearings. And then more importantly, how orders progressed into January and what your team is seeing on, I guess, more of a real-time basis?

為了更了解需求趨勢，我很想知道第四季的訂單進度，以及12月份的出貨量是否有任何放緩。你——在某種程度上受到指導，避免了這種情況，也許其中一些打擊發生在方位上。更重要的是，一月份的訂單進度如何？你們團隊目前掌握的即時數據又是什麼？

Yes. Thank you, Bryan. So look, I think it's important to put this in context where we've come from. So you look at eight quarters of negative growth, then Q3 we started seeing signs of life and green shoots, but we said we don't know what to extrapolate on that. Q4, I would say, went a little better than expected, but I'll also remind you that the comp was a little bit easier for Q4 when you compare it to year over year.

是的。謝謝你，布萊恩。所以，我認為有必要把這件事放在我們所處的背景下看待。所以，你看，連續八個季度都是負成長，然後第三季我們開始看到復甦的跡象和復甦的苗頭，但我們說我們不知道該如何推論。我認為第四季比預期略好一些，但我也要提醒大家，與去年同期相比，第四季的比較基數要小一些。

But I think if we look at your specific question inside and what gives us hope for 2026, is really the order book. So the order book, when you look at where we ended the year, we ended the year up high single digits. Off-highway, general industrial, wind and aero were the big contributors. And then even the sequential order movement from Q3 to Q4, there was some decline because there is seasonality, but really very, very low. You could almost call it flat. So from that standpoint, I think we feel good about it overall.

但我認為，如果我們仔細審視你提出的具體問題，以及真正讓我們對 2026 年充滿希望的是什麼，那就是訂單簿。所以，從我們年底的訂單量來看，我們年底的訂單量達到了接近兩位數。非公路用車、一般工業、風能和航空是主要貢獻者。即使從第三季度到第四季度，訂單量也出現了一些下降，因為存在季節性因素，但下降幅度非常非常低。你幾乎可以稱它為平坦的。所以從這個角度來看，我們總體上感覺良好。

As to how it progressed inside, I would say the difference was that we had a very weak December a year ago. We had a more normal December this time as far as revenue, and I think the pacing of the orders was more steady throughout the quarter. As Mike mentioned earlier, there was a bit of a downturn in distribution, but that's -- we view that more as timing. It was low single-digit kind of movement, and so that's not a -- definitely I wouldn't call that a trend. And then general industrial was up.

至於內部進展如何，我認為不同之處在於，一年前的12月我們表現得非常疲軟。就營收而言，我們今年 12 月的情況比較正常，而且我認為整個季度的訂單量成長速度也更加穩定。正如麥克之前提到的，分銷管道出現了一些下滑，但我們認為這更多是時機問題。這是個位數的波動，所以這絕對算不上——我肯定不會稱之為趨勢。然後，一般工業板塊也上漲了。

So overall, I think in the quarter, it was little better than expected and it was fairly broad based regionally. We already commented that it was really Latin America and China were the only minuses, everything else around the world was positive. And so that's why we feel good going into Q1.

所以總的來說，我認為本季的情況比預期略好，而且在區域上也相當普遍。我們之前已經說過，拉丁美洲和中國是唯一的不足之處，世界其他地區都是正面的。所以，這就是我們對第一季充滿信心的原因。

I think to your question on January, we're giving a guide on Q1 based on what we see today. There is still a lot of uncertainty. We read all the announcements that came out a couple of days ago on India tariff, we haven't seen anything more specific on that yet, but it just illustrates that we still live in a pretty uncertain time. The guide that we gave, we looked at that carefully for Q1 and for where volumes sit versus orders. And I will tell you that January, at least up to this point, is very consistent with that guide.

關於您一月份提出的問題，我們將根據目前的情況給予第一季的指導意見。目前仍存在諸多不確定因素。我們閱讀了前幾天發布的關於印度關稅的所有公告，目前還沒有看到任何更具體的消息，但這只是說明我們仍然生活在一個相當不確定的時期。在我們給出的指南中，我們仔細研究了第一季的銷售量與訂單量之間的關係。我可以告訴你，至少到目前為止，一月份的情況與該指南非常吻合。

So that's where we are, Bryan.

布萊恩，這就是我們目前的處境。

Okay. Appreciate the color. And understood in terms of the maybe uncertainty of the global backdrop, but it seems trends are pretty encouraging. If we think about your full year guide, maybe offer a little more color on segment contribution top line and margin netting to the consolidated outlook. And in Q4, there was a bit more divergent performance between Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion, and we anticipated in a good sense on the IM side.

好的。欣賞這種顏色。考慮到全球情勢可能存在的不確定性，但目前的趨勢似乎相當令人鼓舞。如果我們考慮您的全年業績指引，或許可以更詳細地說明各業務板塊的收入貢獻和利潤淨額對整體業績展望的影響。第四季度，工程軸承和工業運動部門的表現出現了更大的差異，而工業運動部門的表現在某種程度上符合我們的預期。

Just curious how your team is thinking about contemplating the moving parts going forward.

我很好奇你們團隊是如何考慮未來發展中各個環節的。

Yes. So let me maybe I'll start with the margins, Bryan, and then I'll let Lucian comment more on the revenue outlook, if he'd like. Just margins, so fourth quarter margins roughly in line with our expectations, and you noted the difference between Industrial Motion and Engineered Bearings. And I would say that was largely a mix issue inside of Engineered Bearings. Where that revenue came in was a little more on the original equipment side, particularly on-highway, a little stronger than we expected. And that contributed to the mix issue for us in the fourth quarter. And that, combined with the strength we saw on the Industrial Motion revenue side, volume benefit plus the mix of the portfolio there. So that's what kind of created that fourth quarter differential.

是的。那麼，布萊恩，或許我可以先從利潤率說起，然後如果盧西安願意的話，我會讓他對收入前景發表更多評論。僅就利潤率而言，第四季度利潤率大致符合我們的預期，您也注意到了工業運動和工程軸承之間的差異。我認為這主要是 Engineered Bearings 內部的成分混合問題。這部分收入主要來自原始設備方面，特別是公路設備，比我們預期的要強勁一些。這也導致了我們第四季業績組合出現問題。再加上我們在工業運動業務收入方面看到的強勁表現、銷售成長以及該業務的產品組合優勢。這就是造成第四季差距的原因。

As we look forward to margins, first, I want to note that we are taking margins up year on year. And we're looking at, call it, a 30% incremental on our volume growth. So I would say, a fairly typical incremental -- organic incremental for us.

展望利潤率，首先，我想指出，我們的利潤率正在逐年提高。我們預計銷量將成長 30%。所以我覺得，這對我們來說是相當典型的漸進式——有機式的漸進式成長。

Just a reminder, when things turn on us and we start to see growth, we do tend to see incrementals at the lower end of our incremental range as we have headwinds like variable compensation, et cetera. So as we look forward to next year, I think we've still got pricing actions that will benefit us. We are seeing the benefit of the cost savings tactics we implemented throughout the year, which we're a little bit more heavily weighted to the end of 2025. So we benefit from those. And then we do see some favorable mix as we look forward to next year as well. So that's what's leading to our high 17s guide on the margin range. And with the actions we've put in place, feel pretty comfortable that we'll be able to improve margins year over year.

提醒一下，當情況對我們不利，我們開始看到成長時，由於存在諸如可變薪酬等不利因素，我們往往會看到增量在增量範圍的較低端。展望明年，我認為我們仍然有一些定價策略會對我們有利。我們正在看到我們全年實施的成本節約策略帶來的好處，我們尤其希望這些策略能在 2025 年底前得到更充分的體現。所以我們從中受益。展望明年，我們也看到了一些有利的組合。所以，這就是我們給的17分以上保證金範圍指導價的原因。憑藉我們已採取的措施，我們有信心逐年提高利潤率。

And maybe I'll ask Lucian to comment on the market trends.

或許我會請盧西安對市場趨勢發表一下看法。

Yes. Look, I think we talked about it by market here in your first question, but I think where we expect organic sales is at plus 2% midpoint. It's both price and volume to get to that midpoint. But we are cautiously optimistic that demand will continue to improve. Again, the early signs are that would be the case. But at this point, this outlook only reflects modest volume growth just given all the uncertainty and the volatility that we're still seeing today in the trade situation.

是的。你看，我覺得我們在你的第一個問題中已經按市場討論過了，但我認為我們預計有機銷售額的中點是增長 2%。要達到這個中間點需要價格和成交量兩方面的因素。但我們謹慎樂觀地認為，需求將持續改善。種種跡象表明，情況確實如此。但就目前而言，考慮到我們今天在貿易狀況中仍然看到的種種不確定性和波動性，這種前景僅反映了溫和的銷售成長。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Just a couple of clarifications. So off-highway was strong. There's some mixed signals in trucks, but it seems like that market is recovering, and then maybe I'll just lump in there accounting for some of the less positivity on the outlook. So I wonder if you could just talk to what you're seeing there. I think you touched on distribution a minute ago, but any headwinds from distribution inventories or anything else?

有幾點需要澄清。所以越野性能很強。卡車市場出現了一些好壞參半的訊號，但看起來這個市場正在復甦，所以也許我會把一些不太樂觀的前景因素也考慮進去。所以我想知道你是否可以和你看到的東西對話。我想你剛才提到了分銷，但是分銷庫存或其他方面是否有任何不利因素？

Or should we expect to see that follow along if various cycles recover?

或者，我們應該預期，隨著各個週期的復甦，這種情況也會隨之發生？

Sure. So let's start with where you started. So the heavy truck market, I would say, we're not seeing a lot of life there. But as you know, combined with the automotive, so the whole on-highway sector, not really a sign of strength for us there.

當然。那麼，就讓我們從你開始的地方開始。所以，就重型卡車市場而言，我認為，我們並沒有看到太多的活力。但正如你所知，再加上汽車產業，也就是整個公路運輸產業，這對我們來說並不是一個強勁的跡象。

On the off-highway side, it's a little bit -- we are seeing strength in the order book. Lucian -- we're strengthening, I should say, improvement, as Lucian referenced. But really, if we look inside of there, it's not entirely broad-based. We still see agriculture, which is part of our off-highway segment, as being down. So while we're seeing some positive signs in mining and construction, agriculture still is a weight in that segment.

在非公路用車方面，情況略有好轉——我們看到訂單量強勁。盧西安——正如盧西安所說，我們正在加強，或者說，正在改進。但實際上，如果我們深入了解一下，就會發現它的基礎並不完全廣泛。我們仍然認為農業（屬於我們的非公路運輸業務板塊）處於下滑狀態。因此，儘管我們看到採礦和建築業出現了一些積極跡象，但農業仍然是該領域的沉重負擔。

And then lastly, on distribution, we feel pretty good about where distribution inventories are. So we don't see an issue, so really selling through at the market rate there. Where you have visibility, again, we don't have visibility across the entire distribution network, but where we do have visibility, feel pretty comfortable with the inventory levels. And so again, see that being a -- some growth next year, I'll say, low single digit, close to neutral growth, but comfortable with where the inventory is, so it should be a contributor next year.

最後，關於分銷，我們對分銷庫存狀況感覺相當不錯。所以我們認為沒有問題，銷售價格也確實在市場範圍內。在我們能夠看到庫存情況的地方（我們無法看到整個分銷網絡的庫存情況），我們對能夠看到庫存情況的地方的庫存水平感到相當滿意。因此，我預計明年會有一些成長，大概是低個位數，接近中性成長，但庫存狀況良好，所以明年應該會有所貢獻。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Quick clarification of it in here. Volume growth in '26, do you expect volumes to turn positive in the first quarter? I know for the whole company they were still down slightly in the fourth quarter. Just making sure that that's the starting point. And then I have a follow-up.

這裡簡單解釋一下。2026年銷售成長，您預期第一季銷售會轉正嗎？我知道整個公司第四季業績仍然略有下滑。只是想確認一下這是起點。然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. So let me address the Q1 organic sales. We said that we expect those to be flattish year-over-year. And what that means, obviously, with pricing coming in up, that means volumes would be slightly lower. Again, there is a function of just the comp that we're talking about.

是的。那麼，讓我來談談第一季的有機銷售額。我們預計這些數字將與上年同期相比基本持平。很顯然，這意味著隨著價格上漲，銷量會略有下降。再次強調，這裡提到的只是我們正在討論的這個元件的功能。

We had a pretty strong volume in Q1 a year ago. There was some timing on a couple of market segments, renewable being one of them, that drove that comp to be a little more challenging. So a down volume, up pricing and then flat year-over-year organic growth. And then from an EBITDA standpoint, also flat year over year, from a margin standpoint.

去年第一季我們的銷售相當強勁。部分細分市場（包括再生能源）的時機掌握得不好，這使得比較分析更具挑戰性。因此，銷量下降，價格上漲，然後與自然成長持平。從 EBITDA 的角度來看，也與上年持平；從利潤率的角度來看，也是如此。

Okay. So my real question, you made the comment about 80/20 across the portfolio, exiting some underperforming businesses. But you made the comment, but remember, it could take some time. When I look at the bridge for '26, you pull out the tariff relief separately, you pull out the currency, it seems like you're implying only mid-20% incrementals on the organic piece, right, the $0.25 in the bridge on slide 16. Are there costs embedded into your actions that are weighing on those margins?

好的。所以我真正的問題是，你之前提到投資組合中 80/20 的比例，也就是退出一些表現不佳的企業。雖然你發表了評論，但請記住，這可能需要一些時間。當我查看 2026 年的過渡方案時，你把關稅減免單獨拿出來，把貨幣單獨拿出來，看起來你暗示有機部分只有 20% 左右的增量，對吧，也就是第 16 張幻燈片過渡方案中的 0.25 美元。你的行動中是否存在影響利潤率的成本？

And just give us a sense of what you meant by it takes some time. I'm just trying to make sure I understand. Is '26 a year of cost, we won't see the benefits until '27? I'm just trying to get a sense of the cadence of what you were implying.

請您簡要說明一下，您說的「需要一些時間」是什麼意思。我只是想確保我理解了。2026 年是成本年，要到 2027 年才能看到收益嗎？我只是想弄清楚你話裡的語氣。

Yes. I appreciate the question. And so we introduced 80/20 in the last conference call as really being directed at the portfolio. And the idea there was let's critically examine the portfolio and look at where do we want to double down investment. Again, the intent is invest more in growth. But with a finite set of resources that also means walk away from certain things.

是的。感謝您的提問。因此，我們在上次電話會議上介紹了 80/20 策略，該策略實際上針對的是投資組合。這樣做的目的是讓我們認真檢視投資組合，看看我們應該在哪些方面加大投資。再次強調，我們的目標是加大對成長的投資。但資源有限，也意味著要放棄某些事情。

And so that process is well underway. We've identified the parts of the portfolio that we want to deemphasize. Obviously, to deemphasize those, there's really two ways of doing that. You're either having to extract yourself or exit a piece of business or you have to go through an M&A transaction. In any event, those need to be handled confidentially. And obviously, when we have something to announce publicly, then we will.

因此，這個過程正在順利進行中。我們已經確定了想要弱化投資組合中的哪些部分。顯然，要弱化這些影響，實際上有兩種方法。你要嘛得自己退出或退出某項業務，要嘛就得進行併購交易。無論如何，這些都需要保密處理。當然，如果有要公開宣布的事情，我們會及時通知大家。

What we've also communicated this morning was that we're expanding that 80/20 discipline now to the entire enterprise. And so what that means is really now looking at our operation. So looking at not only our customer and product mix and how do we simplify that, looking at our supply chain, our asset footprint, and how do we simplify that.

今天早上我們也傳達了這樣一個訊息：我們將把 80/20 原則推廣到整個企業。所以，這意味著我們現在要真正檢視一下我們的營運狀況。因此，我們不僅要審視我們的客戶和產品組合，思考如何簡化它們，還要審視我們的供應鏈、資產規模，思考如何簡化它們。

The latter part, so this broader 80/20 naturally has an upfront investment and then has a benefit. And if you look at companies typically who have done this, I would say there is a couple of quarters of cost, then the benefits start. And so you've kind of have a couple of quarters of costs, a couple of quarters where the cost and the benefit maybe neutralize each other and then you get into net benefit. That's usually what happens.

後半部分，也就是更廣泛的 80/20 比例，自然需要前期投資，然後才能獲得收益。如果你看看那些通常這樣做的公司，我會說前期會有幾個季度的成本，然後收益就會開始顯現。所以，你會看到幾個季度的成本，幾季的成本和收益可能會互相抵消，然後就到了淨收益階段。通常情況下就是這樣。

Now we're very, very early in this process. We're just using the experience of our partners that we work with. We have an external firm that we're working with, and their experience is very aligned with what I'm saying in terms of the timing. But at this point, what I would say is there's not a significant amount of cost or a significant amount of benefit baked into what we're giving you today.

現在我們還處於這個過程的非常非常早期階段。我們只是藉鏡了合作夥伴的經驗。我們正在與外部公司合作，他們的經驗與我所說的時機非常吻合。但就目前而言，我想說的是，我們今天提供給你們的東西並沒有包含大量的成本或大量的收益。

Between now and Investor Day, we plan to have all this fleshed out. And so that's one of the things that we do. We do plan to communicate at that point. It's really a road map not only on the portfolio, but also road map on the cost actions that we're taking and really the simplification. And again, the motivation for the simplification is twofold. One is we think there's opportunity for margin, but two really is to free up resources for growth.

從現在到投資者日期間，我們計劃把所有這些細節都完善好。所以，這是我們所做的事情之一。我們計劃屆時進行溝通。這不僅是投資組合的路線圖，也是我們正在採取的成本控制措施和簡化流程的路線圖。再次強調，簡化的動機有兩面。一是我們認為存在利潤空間，二是真正為了釋放資源以實現成長。

And at the meeting, would we expect, or maybe you haven't decided, to get multiyear targets when it comes to sales and earnings and, I assume, obviously, some quantification around the savings you just discussed?

在會議上，我們是否期望（或您可能還沒有決定）獲得關於銷售和盈利的多年目標？而且，我假設，顯然，您還會提供一些關於您剛才討論的節省的量化數據？

Yes, I can maybe foreshadow a little bit the table of content because that much we know. I think we're still working on the content. But we're clearly now laying out a very disciplined transformation for the zero to 36-month time frame. And that involves the portfolio 80/20, that involves the simplification, that involves the doubling down regionally to grow our acquisitions that we already have. So that transformation road map will be very clearly laid out with the time line with what the objectives are.

是的，我可以稍微透露一下目錄，因為我們知道的就這麼多。我認為我們還在完善內容。但我們現在顯然正在製定一項非常有紀律的轉型計劃，目標是在 0 到 36 個月內完成。這涉及到 80/20 投資組合，這涉及簡化，這涉及在區域內加倍投入，以擴大我們已經擁有的收購項目。因此，轉型路線圖將非常清楚地列出時間表和目標。

And then obviously, that's the bridge to something, and then we also will share with you what that something is and how we envision the company transforming as we move forward. So that second piece is a little more forward-looking, but the first piece, the 36 months certainly will have not only gross algorithms or top line for bottom line, but then obviously, financial targets for ourselves. But as much visibility and transparency as we can, we will give you so that you can follow along with us and obviously hold us accountable to delivering what we tell you.

很顯然，這是通往某個目標的橋樑，接下來我們也會與大家分享這個目標是什麼，以及我們設想公司在未來發展過程中會如何轉型。所以第二部分更具前瞻性，但第一部分，即未來 36 個月，肯定不僅會有毛利率演算法或營收，還會有我們自己的財務目標。但我們會盡可能地提高透明度，以便您能夠了解我們的進展，並監督我們履行承諾。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞集團。

Maybe I'll just run with that for a second, Lucian. I don't know if you're willing to comment on this. But a lot of 80/20 and sort of simplification does involve exiting certain products and maybe even certain businesses and the PLS impact of 80/20 is kind of usually the first step. And you talked about the cost. But I'm just wondering, like is there a scenario where there's a significant portion of revenue that gets exited as part of this process before we go forward?

或許我可以先這麼想一會兒，盧西安。我不知道你是否願意對此發表評論。但許多 80/20 法則和某種簡化方法確實涉及退出某些產品，甚至某些業務，而 80/20 法則對產品生命週期的影響通常是第一步。你也談到了成本問題。但我只是想知道，是否存在這樣一種情況：在我們繼續前進之前，在這個過程中會有相當一部分收入被退出？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, if we look at sizing even what's in scope, so if you start with the portfolio itself, we're talking about a single-digit percentage of the company that we're considering some of the product lines that we're talking about. We've communicated before our intent to look at our auto OEM business. So that would be part of that total.

是的。謝謝你的提問。你看，即使我們只考慮範圍內的規模，例如從產品組合本身來看，我們談論的只是公司個位數百分比，我們正在考慮的一些產品線就是其中之一。我們之前已經表達過對汽車OEM業務進行審視的意願。所以這部分會包含在總數裡。

So in the end, we're not looking to shrink to the perfect company, that, for sure, we're looking to grow the company. So the entire objective of 80/20 is to reposition ourselves, simplify ourselves, lean ourselves out, have really robust processes for growth. If you look at the organizational announcements that we've made, first thing we put in place was the Chief Technology Officer, Head of Marketing, to really look at macro trends, what happens in the industry and how do we align our portfolio for growth, how do we align ourselves with higher growth verticals than maybe where we've been historically, that ultimately will align our M&A portfolio as well with that.

所以最終，我們並不追求成為一家完美的公司，我們當然希望公司能夠成長壯大。因此，80/20 的全部目標就是重新定位我們自己，簡化我們自己，精簡自己，建立真正強大的成長流程。如果你看看我們發布的組織架構公告，你會發現我們首先設立了首席技術官和行銷主管，以便真正關注宏觀趨勢、行業動態以及我們如何調整產品組合以實現增長，如何與比我們以往所處的更高增長垂直領域保持一致，最終也將使我們的併購組合與此保持一致。

But the answer to the question is, no, we don't intend to shrink significantly. And we intend to also work very hard on these regional growth opportunities that we have in the short term to offset some of those exits, to the extent that it's possible. Again, we'll have to get the timing just right, and sometimes you don't control that. But in the end, it's not the intent to shrink.

但問題的答案是，不，我們不打算大幅縮減規模。我們也打算在短期內努力抓住這些區域成長機會，以盡可能抵消部分退出造成的損失。同樣，我們必須把握好時機，而有時候你無法控制這一點。但歸根究底，他們的本意並不是要縮小規模。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just to pivot, as you're thinking about 2026, I mean it sounds like you're fairly optimistic and your slide 15 shows a fair amount of growth end markets there. But you have this 2% organic growth target. I would think you could do, frankly, better than 2% just on pricing.

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，我們再換個話題，既然你在考慮 2026 年，我的意思是，聽起來你相當樂觀，你的第 15 張幻燈片顯示那裡有很多成長的終端市場。但你們的目標是實現 2% 的有機成長。坦白說，我認為光是定價就能做到2%以上。

So I guess I'm a little surprised. Are you -- do you think about this as conservative? Is there some reason that pricing would be this low as you start to capture things like steel costs and tariffs and so forth? It just feels like I would have expected more than that.

所以，我有點驚訝。你認為這算是保守派嗎？考慮到鋼材成本、關稅等因素，定價如此低是否有原因？感覺我原本期望更高一些。

Yes. Look, I'll let Mike walk you through the waterfall in a minute, but let me maybe make a few high-level comments. So I think if you look at the price and what we've said, price around tariff costs, we said that we will recapture the margin by the end of the year. So when you're looking at a whole year versus the whole year, that obviously doesn't show you the true run rate picture of where we're going to end 2026. It just gives you the area under the [curb]. And so there's that comment I would have on pricing.

是的。聽著，我一會兒讓麥克帶你參觀瀑布，但我想先簡單說幾句。所以我覺得，如果你看看價格，再看看我們之前說過的價格，考慮到關稅成本，我們說過我們會在年底前重新獲得利潤。所以，當你把一整年和一整年進行比較時，顯然無法顯示我們到 2026 年底的真實運行率情況。它只是告訴你下面的面積[抑制]。這就是我對定價的看法。

And certainly, we're all awaiting or where the Supreme Court decision comes on tariffs. And so all those things certainly have an impact in what additional pricing is warranted or not depending on where we end up with pricing as the year progresses.

當然，我們都在等待最高法院對關稅問題的裁決。因此，隨著時間的推移，所有這些因素肯定會對是否需要額外定價產生影響，這取決於我們最終的定價策略。

On volumes themselves, where we sit today, I would say, is what we see as we look out as far out as we can see. The visibility into the back half of the year, obviously, is way more limited. And we can all speculate on scenarios or look at history where our recovery would have been better. But this we view as realistic based on what we see today.

就卷冊本身而言，我認為我們今天所處的位置，就是我們向外眺望所能及的最遠的地方所看到的。顯然，對下半年的可視性要有限得多。我們可以推測各種可能性，或回顧歷史，看看在哪些情況下我們的復甦會更好。但根據我們目前所看到的，我們認為這是現實的。

I'll also remind you that there is a limit to how fast, whether it's ourselves or the entire supply chain, can ramp up with increased demand because everybody has kind of rightsized their operations to the demand. So if you see a big snapback, then that certainly will result in some growth on -- more growth on the order book, but the translation into revenue will also take a little bit of time and ramp up.

我還要提醒大家，無論是我們自己還是整個供應鏈，隨著需求的增長，產能提升的速度都是有限的，因為每個人都已經根據需求調整了自己的營運規模。因此，如果大幅反彈，那麼訂單量肯定會增加，但轉換為收入也需要一些時間和逐步成長。

So that's where it sits. Is it conservative? Is it not? I would say we've done our best to try to be realistic, but we're also cautious here given the dynamic environment. So Mike, if you want to comment on the margin maybe.

它就放在那裡。它保守嗎？難道不是嗎？我想說，我們已經盡力做到務實，但考慮到當前瞬息萬變的環境，我們也保持謹慎。所以麥克，如果你想對邊際效益發表意見的話。

Yes. Well, just maybe elaborating a little more on price volume. I think we say 1%, I would say, 1% plus pricing, and I think the important thing to know is that we have consistently over time achieved solid pricing, and we expect another year of solid pricing and we'll continue to push price higher where and when we have the opportunity. So as Lucian said, starting the year maybe with what we have visibility to both on the volume and pricing side, but it doesn't mean that we're not going to continue to look for opportunities throughout the year. So I thought I'd characterize that cautious with what we can see and continuing to look for opportunities as we move forward.

是的。嗯，或許可以再詳細闡述價格與成交量的關係。我認為我們說的是 1%，或者說是 1% 加上定價，我認為重要的是要知道，我們一直以來都保持著穩健的定價，我們預計未來一年也能保持穩健的定價，並且我們會在有機會的時候繼續提高價格。正如盧西安所說，年初我們或許能從銷售和價格兩方面看出些端倪，但這並不意味著我們不會在今年繼續尋找機會。所以我認為，根據我們目前所看到的，保持謹慎的態度，並繼續尋找前進的機會。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Just maybe wanted to continue on the price/cost conversation a little bit. Obviously, you talked a lot about uncertainty with tariffs and a lot of moving pieces there that we won't know for a little bit. But just can you talk about the other buckets, whether it's labor or materials, and just your general kind of strategy in terms of how we should be thinking about any kind of material headwinds, again, outside of tariffs?

只是想再稍微聊聊價格/成本方面的問題。顯然，您談到了很多關於關稅的不確定性，以及許多我們暫時無法了解的變數。但您能否談談其他方面，例如勞動力或原材料，以及您在應對任何實質不利因素（關稅除外）方面的整體策略？

Sure. Thanks, Angel, for the question. So maybe I'll just start answering the last part. First, the material, we look for -- there will be material inflation. So it is an inflationary environment, but we talked about cost savings in 2025.

當然。謝謝你的提問，Angel。那我或許就先回答最後一部分吧。首先，我們關注物質方面──將會出現物質通膨。雖然目前是通貨膨脹環境，但我們討論的是2025年的成本節約問題。

And some of those cost savings were absolutely built around material cost savings tactics. And so we'd look for those to continue. And while we expect some logistics headwinds, I would say material and logistics costs should be a positive for us heading into next year. We do have labor inflation across both our manufacturing and SG&A footprint, so labor inflation will be a headwind next year, as well as variable compensation. I referenced in an earlier comment, variable compensation is a headwind for us as well.

其中一些成本節約完全是圍繞著材料成本節約策略實現的。所以我們希望這些情況能夠持續下去。雖然我們預期物流方面會遇到一些不利因素，但我認為明年材料和物流成本的下降對我們來說應該是個利好。我們的製造業和銷售、一般及行政部門都面臨勞動成本上漲的問題，因此明年勞動成本上漲和浮動薪酬將構成不利因素。我在之前的評論中提到過，浮動薪酬對我們來說也是一個不利因素。

As we inflect to a year where we're projecting growth, that's typically what happens for us. So we do have inflationary pressure. We have cost savings tactics. Net-net will be a positive price/cost. And as you saw on the walk, tariffs will be a positive for us.

當我們展望未來一年並預測成長時，通常情況下，我們都會取得這樣的成績。所以我們確實面臨通膨壓力。我們有節約成本的策略。淨價/成本將為正值。正如你在散步時看到的，關稅對我們來說是件好事。

And then on the overall price/cost, we see a net positive. So overall, contributing to that 30% incremental is cost savings tactics to offset the inflation combined with pricing. And that's how we get there.

從整體價格/成本來看，我們看到淨收益為正。因此，總體而言，這 30% 的增量是由抵銷通貨膨脹的成本節約策略和定價共同造成的。這就是我們到達目的地的方式。

That's helpful. And then maybe just switching over to -- into automation, I think you talked about strong growth there in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about what your order books are showing kind of exiting the year, into January, to the growth in automation and how that kind of compares to maybe the mid-single-digit outlook that you provided for the full year? And then Lucian, if you don't mind just maybe commenting maybe bigger picture, given your background, I guess, how are you going to see the longer-term strategic role of automation within the business as we think about accelerating growth, your overall kind of portfolio strategy, M&A, et cetera?

那很有幫助。然後或許可以轉向自動化，我想你之前也提到第四季度自動化領域實現了強勁成長。您能否談談貴公司在年底到一月份的訂單情況，以及自動化成長情況，並與您先前對全年做出的個位數中段成長預期進行比較？那麼，盧西安，如果您不介意的話，鑑於您的背景，我想請您就更宏觀的角度發表一下看法。您認為在考慮加速成長、整體投資組合策略、併購等方面時，自動化在企業中的長期策略角色是什麼？

Yes. I appreciate the question. And I made a comment earlier that we're certainly very interested in aligning our portfolio a little bit better. And that's why we have a new CTO, that's why we have a new Head of Marketing, with macro trends and the markets that really are driven by those macro trends. And if you think about that, electrification, automation are kind of the top of the list of macro trends that we are already aligned with and need to further align with.

是的。感謝您的提問。我之前也說過，我們當然非常有興趣更好地調整我們的投資組合。這就是為什麼我們聘請了新的技術長和新的行銷主管，因為宏觀趨勢以及真正受這些宏觀趨勢驅動的市場都與我們息息相關。仔細想想，電氣化和自動化可以說是我們已經認同並需要進一步認同的宏觀趨勢中的佼佼者。

So to answer the first part of your question, certainly, automation was a driver for us in terms of increases. We see especially our exposure there on the industrial motion or linear motion in particular, where we've benefited from that. That's actually a big driver. And one of the things we talked about is taking these acquisitions. So I'll remind you that our linear motion business is primarily our European business historically.

所以，回答你問題的第一部分，自動化無疑是我們成長的一個驅動因素。我們尤其在工業運動或直線運動領域看到了我們的投資機會，並從中受益匪淺。這其實是一個重要的驅動因素。我們討論的內容之一就是進行這些收購。所以我要提醒各位，從歷史上看，我們的直線運動業務主要來自歐洲。

We've invested significantly in resources in the Americas to grow that. And we're up 20% in that business, it's off of a small base, but we're up 20% in the Americas in that business as a result of that effort and investment. So it certainly shows that there is opportunity, and a lot of that is in automation.

我們已在美洲投入大量資源以促進其發展。我們在該業務領域成長了 20%，雖然基數較小，但由於這項努力和投資，我們在美洲的這項業務成長了 20%。所以這無疑顯示存在機遇，而其中許多機會都在於自動化領域。

As to your bigger question on the automation, on the market itself, I think humanoid has gotten a disproportionate amount of press because it's obviously exciting. At some point, it will be part of our future. We are participating in that as well. We share in that excitement. We're working with OEMs on key programs. And we're certainly looking forward to success in that market.

至於你提出的關於自動化和市場本身的更大問題，我認為人形機器人獲得了不成比例的媒體關注，因為它顯然令人興奮。在某個時刻，它將成為我們未來的一部分。我們也參與其中。我們也同樣感到興奮。我們正在與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 合作進行關鍵專案。我們當然期待在這個市場上取得成功。

But I would say it's still early. It's still at a prototyping and the designing phase. But what is not at the prototyping and designing phase is industrial automation overall. And I think when you look at how we participate there, there's a lot of product lines where we participate. So you think about our automated lubrication systems that we have in our Industrial Motion portfolio.

但我認為現在下結論還為時過早。目前仍處於原型製作和設計階段。但目前尚未進入原型設計和設計階段的是工業自動化整體。我認為，當你觀察我們參與其中的方式時，你會發現我們參與的產品線非常多。所以，您可以考慮一下我們工業運動產品組合中的自動化潤滑系統。

If you think about we participate with drives, with harmonics, with our linear actuators, in factory robots. Think about our medical robots through our CGI acquisition, our [con] drives go into autonomous guided vehicles, and then last but not least, humanoid. So really a broad product portfolio here across the enterprise that positions us very nicely. So you might see this as a topic at Investor Day where we would cover this in a little more detail. But we're certainly overall excited.

想想看，我們是如何利用驅動器、諧波和線性執行器，以及我們的產品，參與工廠機器人的。想想我們透過 CGI 技術取得的醫療機器人，我們的 [con] 驅動技術應用於自主導引車，最後但同樣重要的是，應用於人形機器人。因此，我們公司擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，這使我們處於非常有利的地位。所以您可能會在投資者日上看到這個主題，屆時我們會更詳細地介紹它。但我們總體上確實感到興奮。

This is a trend -- this trend, and then electrification utilities, power gen are certainly two that early looks as that there's opportunity here for us to align ourselves better and to have a more comprehensive offering. Because we just have so much content, and bringing that together into a customer solution, into an engineered solution is really the way forward.

這是一個趨勢——這個趨勢，以及電氣化公用事業和發電，無疑是兩個早期跡象表明我們有機會更好地調整自身，並提供更全面的產品和服務。因為我們擁有大量的內容，而將這些內容整合到一個面向客戶的解決方案、一個工程化的解決方案中，才是真正的發展方向。

Maybe if I could just add a reminder, and Lucian referenced CGI. But for most of 2025, CGI would have been in our acquisitions or inorganic bucket. That slipped at the end of the year and now is part of our automation segment. And we've seen very strong growth from that acquisition and very happy with where it is. So Lucian referred to it, but I just wanted to, from a modeling perspective, remind you that it's now part of automation.

也許我可以加個提醒，盧西安提到了 CGI。但對於 2025 年的大部分時間來說，CGI 都屬於我們的收購或非有機成長類別。年底時，這項業務有所下滑，現在已成為我們自動化業務的一部分。我們從那次收購中看到了非常強勁的成長，對目前的狀況非常滿意。盧西安提到了這一點，但我只是想從建模的角度提醒你，它現在是自動化的一部分。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

史蒂夫·巴格爾，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

This is Christian Zyla on for Steve Barger. You mentioned a few times on this call about the CTO and executive appointments. So maybe just as a follow-up to that previous answer. But can you just talk more specifically about how those new appointments will translate to innovation and sales growth? Like what specifically will you be doing differently with these new appointments?

這裡是克里斯蒂安·齊拉，替史蒂夫·巴格爾為您報道。您在這次通話中多次提到首席技術長和高階主管任命的問題。所以，也許可以作為對先前回答的補充。您能否更具體地談談這些新任命將如何轉化為創新和銷售成長？具體來說，您將如何透過這些新任命做出不同的調整？

And what parts of your business are you focusing on initially? Is that inward-facing or is that more market-facing?

那麼，您最初將重點放在業務的哪些方面呢？這是面向內部的，還是面向市場的？

Yes, absolutely market-facing. So first thing we're trying to do is create the appropriate ecosystem and the framework and the processes and the discipline to be able to invest more. So if you look at what we invest today in R&D, there is room for increasing that potentially. But what you have to have for that is really clear, really good alignment on what are the focus areas. Be very clear with you as to what macro trends are we following, what are our focus industries where we try to bring these solutions, and then that drives our innovation portfolio and it also drives our M&A portfolio.

是的，絕對是面向市場的。因此，我們首先要做的就是創造合適的生態系統、框架、流程和紀律，以便能夠進行更多投資。所以，如果我們看看目前在研發上的投入，就會發現還有增加的空間。但要做到這一點，你必須對重點領域有非常清晰、非常一致的認知。我會非常清楚地向您說明我們正在關注哪些宏觀趨勢，我們將重點放在哪些行業並嘗試提供這些解決方案，這將驅動我們的創新組合，也將驅動我們的併購組合。

And so really the early days of both the CTO and the Head of Marketing is really to establish the growth processes, establish the growth framework and really clarify those across the company so that we have one set of metrics, one set of language. If we can compare apples-to-apples, we can track time lines, we can execute. And like with all innovation, we can fail fast and pivot and move to success.

因此，技術長和行銷主管的早期工作實際上就是建立成長流程、建立成長框架，並在整個公司範圍內明確這些流程和框架，以便我們擁有一套指標、一套語言。如果我們能進行公平的比較，就能追蹤時間線，就能執行。就像所有創新一樣，我們可以快速失敗，然後迅速調整方向，最終走向成功。

So that's the intent of the early days. By Investor Day, we hope to share with you what those focus areas are, what the macro trends are. And then obviously, as we give you our multiyear outlook, then we'll also be able to give you some glimpse into what the investment and what the outcome can be from that effort.

這就是早期階段的意圖。我們希望在投資者日當天與您分享這些重點領域以及宏觀趨勢。然後，很顯然，當我們向您展示我們的多年展望時，我們也能讓您了解這項投資以及這項努力可能帶來的成果。

But we're -- I'll remind you, this is not a new muscle. This is a 125-year company that's built on technology, that's built on innovation, that's built on patents. So this is really doubling down on our routes, just focusing a little better on macro trends and recognizing that we need to align our growth a little better with high-growth verticals as we do the portfolio work and exit some of the more challenging verticals.

但是──我提醒你，這不是一塊新肌肉。這是一家擁有125年歷史的公司，它建立在技術、創新和專利之上。所以，這實際上是加倍投入我們的發展路線，更加關注宏觀趨勢，並認識到我們需要在進行投資組合調整和退出一些更具挑戰性的垂直領域時，更好地將我們的成長與高成長垂直領域相匹配。

Fair enough. And then just my second question, kind of on M&A. M&A backdrop looks favorable. Interest rate environment is positive. Yet you guys haven't really added anything to your portfolio, which seems uncharacteristic for Timken.

很公平。我的第二個問題是關於併購的。併購環境看起來比較有利。利率環境良好。然而，你們並沒有真正為你們的產品組合增加任何東西，這對鐵姆肯公司來說似乎很不尋常。

Do you feel your portfolio is in a good spot? Or is debt leverage the greater priority, or 80/20? Just has this fallen down the priority list? Just any thoughts there.

您覺得您的投資組合目前狀況良好嗎？或者，債務槓桿是更重要的考量因素，還是80/20法則？難道這件事的優先順序降低了？大家有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I would say it's not down on the priority list, but maybe a couple of comments. So definitely, it's not because we were solely focused on delevering. I think that was certainly just the effect of good cash generation and good discipline and the opportunities that we had. What we do want to do, and maybe the reason there was a little bit of a pause on M&A, is really a rollout strategy very clearly, and doing that at Investor Day, and then really rolling out that road map of what's in play, what's not and then how we look, what is our philosophy, how do we look at M&A.

是的。我覺得它優先順序不低，但或許可以提幾點意見。所以，這絕對不是因為我們只專注於去槓桿化。我認為這肯定是良好的現金流、良好的紀律以及我們所擁有的機會所帶來的結果。我們真正想做的，或許也是併購活動稍有停滯的原因，是製定一個非常明確的推廣策略，並在投資者日上公佈，然後真正推出該路線圖，說明哪些項目正在進行，哪些項目尚未啟動，以及我們如何看待併購，我們的理念是什麼。

And I think I shared this in a prior call, we look at this universe of good businesses, then inside of that, when businesses are transactable. And then inside of those two circles is where are we the natural owner? So how do we define that for you so that when we explain an M&A transaction or we announce an M&A transaction, it's very clear that we're the natural owner here.

我想我在之前的電話會議中也分享過這一點，我們審視一下優秀的企業，然後在這些企業中，看看哪些企業是可以進行交易的。那麼，在這兩個圓圈之內，我們才是天然的主人嗎？那麼，我們該如何向您解釋這一點，以便當我們解釋併購交易或宣布併購交易時，能夠非常清楚地表明我們是這裡的天然所有者？

I think there is still a very active pipeline that we have. We're working on that pipeline. There is a -- there are new areas that we're looking to focus as we flesh out our strategy. So that exists. And then there's always the list of acquisitions that will fill our portfolio very nicely that we've had for some time.

我認為我們仍然擁有非常活躍的研發和生產管道。我們正在研究這條管道。在完善策略的過程中，我們希望專注於一些新的領域。所以這種東西確實存在。此外，我們還有一份收購清單，這些收購將很好地豐富我們的投資組合，而這份清單我們已經考慮了一段時間。

Those are more -- I would characterize those opportunistic because we know they fit, but it's a matter of when are they available, when are they transactable. So in that case, call that a little more opportunistic.

這些更像是——我會把它們描述為機會主義的，因為我們知道它們很合適，但問題是它們何時可用，何時可以交易。所以，在這種情況下，可以稱之為一種機會主義行為。

But activity is not down on M&A, but I think there is more now on defining what it needs to be, defining what we want. And then also, frankly, some focus on the portfolio 80/20, what are the pieces that maybe are on the other side of the -- of that side on the acquisition, but maybe on the divestiture.

但併購活動並沒有減少，只是現在更多的是定義併購需要是什麼樣子，定義我們想要什麼。坦白說，我們也應該關註一下 80/20 投資組合，看看哪些部分可能在收購的另一邊，但在剝離的那一邊。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

Kyle Menges，花旗銀行。

I was hoping if you could just provide a little more color on the auto and truck outlook just in terms of what you're seeing in the end markets for 2026? And then how is the auto OE pruning factoring into that outlook?

我希望您能就2026年汽車和卡車終端市場的前景，再詳細闡述一下您的觀點？那麼，汽車原廠設備精簡計畫對這種前景有何影響？

Yes. So I think let me start with Q4. So I think if you look at Q4, auto and truck was down. It was, as Mike said earlier, both heavy truck and automotive OE was down. Aftermarket was more flattish. We don't see big changes to that as we head into Q1 at this point and no reason to call that very different.

是的。那麼，我想就從第四季開始吧。所以我覺得，如果你看一下第四季度，你會發現汽車和卡車的銷售都下降了。正如麥克之前所說，重型卡車和汽車原始設備製造商的產量都下降了。售後市場表現較為平淡。就目前來看，進入第一季後，這種情況不會有太大變化，也沒有理由說情況會截然不同。

I think as to the pruning of auto, a lot of progress, I would say, in the last 90 days. Give you a little bit of color of where we are, so these are long-standing customer relationships with customers that we've done business with for quite some time. And so we had to work with them to find appropriate outcomes that work for both as we do this exit.

我認為，就自動修剪而言，在過去的 90 天裡取得了巨大的進展。讓我稍微介紹一下我們目前的狀況，這些都是我們與客戶之間長期維持的業務關係。因此，我們必須與他們合作，找到對雙方都有利的合適解決方案，以實現這次退出。

And so those conversations are mostly complete, some still ongoing, but mostly complete. And I really have to express my appreciation to our customers because they work with us, and I think we're headed to some outcomes that work for both. By Investor Day, we hope to have those finalized so that we can communicate with you a specific time line, but I can give you a little bit of color now. The arrangements that we're looking at will have us see more significant revenue decline in 2027, but both in '26 and in '27, we expect to have some margin uplift from these negotiations. So again, I think that's a good outcome for all the parties involved.

因此，這些對話大多已經結束，有些仍在進行中，但大部分已經結束。我真的要對我們的客戶表示感謝，因為他們與我們合作，我認為我們正在朝著對雙方都有利的結果邁進。我們希望在投資者日之前完成這些工作，以便能夠與您溝通具體的時間表，但我現在可以向您透露一些細節。我們正在考慮的安排將導致我們在 2027 年收入出現更大幅度的下降，但我們預計在 2026 年和 2027 年，這些談判將帶來一定的利潤率提升。所以，我認為這對所有相關方來說都是一個好結果。

And it will position us to give you visibility in a way that you can track our progress on how we're doing with that pruning.

這將使我們能夠以一種您可以追蹤我們修剪工作進展的方式來向您展示進展。

Helpful. And it would be helpful to hear a little bit more color on expanding the 80/20 philosophy across the entire enterprise and maybe the impetus for that as you look more now at the operations and supply chain footprint. I guess is that because you see some low-hanging fruit there to go after? And yes, and maybe just talk a little bit about what you could execute on as you look to implement 80/20 across the entire enterprise and how maybe the timing would look as well?

很有幫助。如果能更詳細地介紹如何將 80/20 理念推廣到整個企業，以及在您更多地關注營運和供應鏈佈局時，推動這一理念發展的動力，那就太好了。我猜是因為你覺得那裡有一些唾手可得的成果可以先摘取吧？是的，或許可以稍微談談在整個企業實施 80/20 法則的過程中，您可以執行哪些操作，以及時間安排方面會是怎樣的？

Yes. I mean, look, what I can tell you at this point is we're a few weeks, maybe a month into this in broadening the effort away from just the portfolio to the to the overall operations. So you can more refer to what is typical for a company our size and what you can expect. And I mentioned in terms of timing, a couple of quarters of heavy analysis, heavy training, the organization on the discipline, picture big training -- it's a little bit like lean where you really go through pretty intensive training, you collect a lot of data, it has very specific metrics. We have done some of that. We're starting pretty broad training here in another week, and that's global around the world. So we're -- that is the early phases of it.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我現在可以告訴你的是，我們已經花了幾個星期，也許一個月的時間，將工作範圍從投資組合擴展到整體營運。這樣你就可以更多地參考我們這個規模的公司通常的做法以及你可以期待什麼。我之前提到過，就時間安排而言，需要幾個季度的深入分析、大量的培訓，以及對紀律的組織，想像一下大規模的培訓——這有點像精益生產，你要經歷非常密集的培訓，收集大量數據，它有非常具體的指標。我們已經做了一些這方面的工作。我們將在下週開始進行相當廣泛的培訓，這是一項全球性的培訓。所以，我們現在還處於早期階段。

The early insights from the analysis would tell you, no surprise, when you apply to a portfolio this big, that the product complexity is quite high and a disproportionate amount of revenue rests on very few customers or very few product lines. And then you have to ask yourself a couple of questions, which is, do you really need to spend a lot of energy on a very fragmented tail in the market? Or is that really valuable to customers? And can you collect more price on that? Is there another way to create value?

分析的初步結果會告訴你，毫不奇怪，當你將分析應用於如此龐大的產品組合時，你會發現產品複雜性相當高，而且不成比例的收入依賴於極少數客戶或極少數產品線。然後，你必須問自己幾個問題，那就是，你真的需要把大量精力投入到市場中非常分散的尾部嗎？或者說，這對顧客來說真的有價值嗎？你能賣個更高的價錢嗎？還有其他創造價值的方式嗎？

But in the end, it is about simplifying. And the reason to simplify is to get a little more margin, but also to free resources for growth. Because in the end, not only theory, but vast experience of firms that have done 80/20, firms like strategics who we're working with, who are very versed at this, is as you double down on that focus on your top customers, top products, top markets, you can actually create offerings for them where you can grow way more there than you would lose on the other side by shedding some more fragmented business that really has a higher cost to serve than maybe your accounting ledger would say. So that's where we are.

但歸根究底，關鍵在於簡化。簡化的原因是為了獲得更多利潤空間，同時也是為了釋放資源進行成長。因為歸根結底，不僅是理論，還有那些實踐過 80/20 策略的公司（比如我們正在合作的戰略諮詢公司）的大量經驗，他們非常精通此道，那就是當你加倍專注於你的頂級客戶、頂級產品和頂級市場時，你實際上可以為他們創造一些產品，讓你在這些領域獲得比剝離一些分散的成本這就是我們目前的處境。

Again, early in the days for me to give you anything definitive. I'm just trying to provide color more on what is our process and where we are and what is typical in 80/20. And so far, our data says that there's no reason to believe we would be vastly different from what is typical. And so we're very, very excited about it, which is why we're making this investment right now.

再次強調，現在還為時過早，我無法給出任何確切的消息。我只是想更詳細地介紹我們的流程、我們目前所處的位置以及 80/20 的典型情況。到目前為止，我們的數據顯示，沒有理由相信我們會與典型情況有太大不同。所以我們對此感到非常非常興奮，這也是我們現在進行這項投資的原因。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛集團。

I wanted to -- yes, I just want to get a clarification on the 2026 outlook bridge. The $0.10 to $0.15 that you have in there for tariffs, I'm assuming that includes the pricing that you put through for those tariffs already. And then also because you've kind of had this two to three quarters of a headwind, is the expectation that you'll see most of this benefit in the first half of the year as well?

我想問——是的，我只是想了解一下 2026 年展望大橋的情況。我假設你提到的 0.10 到 0.15 美元的關稅已經包含了你為這些關稅設定的價格。而且，由於過去兩到三個季度以來一直受到不利因素的影響，是否預計今年上半年也將看到大部分收益？

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. Yes, the answer is in that $0.10 to $0.15, it does include the price benefit of that. And we are, as you noted, putting in price actions which were more heavily weighted in the second half. So on a year-over-year comp basis, that will look a little more favorable in the first half than the second half.

當然可以。謝謝你的提問。是的，答案就在那 0.10 到 0.15 美元之間，其中包含了價格優勢。正如您所指出的，我們正在進行價格操作，這些操作在下半年權重更高。因此，以年比計算，上半年的情況會比下半年略好。

Having said that, we are going to continue to put pricing in throughout the year. And as we've committed to previously, we will recapture the margin on the tariffs, but we don't expect to do that until we're exiting 2026. So from modeling the pricing benefit, because we were getting that towards the second half, will come in stronger in the first half. And then exiting the year, we'll be at, call it, margin-neutral on price tariff.

話雖如此，我們仍將在全年持續推出定價方案。正如我們之前承諾的那樣，我們將收回關稅利潤，但我們預計要到 2026 年底才能實現這一目標。因此，根據定價優勢模型，因為我們在下半年才開始看到這種優勢，所以上半年優勢會更加明顯。到年底，我們將達到價格關稅的利潤中性水準。

Okay. Great. And then the question -- the other question [I have, solution]. I know that the business is short cycle. I also know that you don't have a lot of volume growth baked into your expectations.

好的。偉大的。然後是另一個問題——另一個問題我有解決方案。我知道這個行業的周期很短。我也知道，你們的預期中並沒有包含太多的銷售成長。

But look, it was interesting to see the ISM print over 50 just this past week. I'm just curious, just like as you're looking at kind of like leading indicators across your business on where you could potentially see an inflection, like what are you looking at really closely? And like where do you see maybe some potential sources of optimism given the backdrop seems to be getting a little bit better?

但是，值得注意的是，ISM 指數上週突破了 50 點。我只是好奇，就像你在觀察業務中的一些領先指標，以判斷哪些方面可能出現轉折點一樣，你具體在密切關注哪些方面？那麼，鑑於目前的情況似乎有所好轉，你認為有哪些潛在的樂觀因素呢？

Yes. I think when you look at the order book in general, off-highway, general industrial, renewables, wind, not solar, but wind and aerospace, those are certainly areas that would tell us to be to be optimistic. General industrial, we expect the sector to be up mid-single digits versus 2025. So that's still strong. I think where you still see is these later in the cycle businesses.

是的。我認為，從整體上看訂單情況，非公路用車、一般工業、再生能源、風能（不是太陽能，而是風能和航空航太）等領域，這些領域無疑會讓我們保持樂觀。一般工業方面，我們預計該行業將比 2025 年實現中等個位數成長。所以它依然很強勢。我認為你仍然會在周期後期的企業中看到這些現象。

Oil and gas is kind of the poster child of that that tends to be the last one that that rebound. So those are businesses that are still slower. I think, as I said, heavy industries, power gen strong, aggregates strong, but oil and gas and metals are still slow, and that weighs down that entire sector. So that's kind of overall if you step back and look at the segments.

石油和天然氣產業可以說是這種現象的典型代表，它們往往是最後反彈的產業。所以這些都是發展速度仍然較慢的企業。我認為，正如我所說，重工業、發電行業和骨料行業發展強勁，但石油、​​天然氣和金屬行業仍然低迷，這拖累了整個行業。所以，如果你退後一步，從各個部分來看，這就是大致情況。

And then by region, as we mentioned, Europe was actually the pleasant surprise in Q3. And we almost didn't believe it. In Q4, it continued to do well. And US is doing okay. LatAm is down and China still continues to be down, and solar is a big contributor to China being down. But India is more than making up for it, so we're certainly excited about that.

然後按地區來看，正如我們之前提到的，歐洲在第三季的表現實際上令人驚訝。我們幾乎不敢相信。第四季度，該公司繼續保持良好業績。美國的情況還不錯。拉丁美洲的電力供應中斷，中國的電力供應也持續中斷，而太陽能發電是導致中國電力供應中斷的主要原因之一。但印度正在迎頭趕上，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Tomo Sano, JPMorgan.

Tomo Sano，摩根大通。

A question to Lucian. While we understand that the more details will be shared at the May Investor Day, but could you share how you have spent your first 100-plus days as CEO? Especially like on the process side, what approaches or activities have you undertaken to identify opportunities for organizational transformation? And what areas do you see the greatest potential for improvement, please?

問盧西安一個問題。我們了解到更多細節將在五月的投資者日上公佈，但您能否分享一下您擔任 CEO 的頭 100 多天是如何度過的？尤其是在流程方面，您採取了哪些方法或活動來尋找組織轉型的機會？請問您認為哪些方面最有改進潛力？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Tomo. So if I just look back at the last 100 days, the first thing I usually do when I try to learn a new business is visit the factories. And so I spent a lot of time trying to see how we operate, how we make -- it teaches you a lot about the business. It teaches you about the sources of differentiation. It teaches you about how unique you are, how easy is it for somebody to do what you're doing. Because ultimately, strategy has to do with your competitive advantage. So I would say I overinvested there to try to understand our operations.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Tomo。所以，如果我回顧過去 100 天，當我嘗試了解新業務時，我通常做的第一件事就是參觀工廠。因此，我花了很多時間去了解我們的運作方式，我們的生產方式——這能讓你對這個行業有更深入的了解。它教你了解差異的來源。它讓你意識到自己有多獨特，別人做你正在做的事情有多容易。因為歸根究底，策略關乎你的競爭優勢。所以我覺得我在那方面投入過多，是為了更了解我們的營運狀況。

Likewise, you alluded to it, understand the business processes. And what I would say is both on the operations side and on the business processes side, I found opportunities. And what I found opportunities is not to invent something new, but to really do a better job at translating best practices across the enterprise. So this company has gone through a lot of acquisitions over the last few years and really almost anything you think about, somebody in Timken is doing it very well, but how do we institutionalize that across the enterprise?

同樣，正如你所提到的，要了解業務流程。我想說的是，無論是在營運方面還是在業務流程方面，我都發現了機會。我發現的機會不在於發明新的東西，而是更好地將最佳實踐推廣到整個企業。所以，這家公司在過去幾年裡進行了很多收購，實際上，你能想到的幾乎任何事情，鐵姆肯公司都有人做得很好，但是我們如何在整個企業中將這種做法制度化呢？

And I would say that was probably the first 60, 80 days. And then the last 30 to 60 was, okay, so what? So now what do we do? And what we are working on now is really a very disciplined operating model that's based on a single version of the truth, transparency, accountability, metrics that are simple enough, leaned out enough that they're not burdensome and they're reflective of the size company we are. But at the same time, really rigid enough that you can operate a business of this complexity at scale and operate it efficiently.

我想那大概是最初的 60 到 80 天。然後，最後 30 到 60 分鐘，好吧，那又怎樣？那現在我們該怎麼辦？我們現在正在努力打造的是一個非常嚴謹的營運模式，它基於單一的真實版本、透明度、問責制，以及足夠簡單、足夠精簡的指標，這些指標不會成為負擔，並且能夠反映我們公司的規模。但同時，它又足夠嚴謹，可以大規模地經營如此複雜的業務，並且有效率地運作下去。

So a lot of work going on right now on the operating model, at the same time, work on 80/20, as I said, on simplifying the operations, simplifying the supply chain. So really tackling the entire operation, tackling it so that it's nimble, it's lean, it's quick. And then as we do the 80/20 and we focus our growth into our macro trends, into our growth areas, then we can operate with agility and speed.

所以，目前我們正在對營運模式進行大量工作，同時，正如我所說，我們也在努力實現 80/20 原則，簡化運營，簡化供應鏈。所以，真正要做的就是著手處理整個運營，讓它靈活、精簡、快速。然後，當我們運用 80/20 法則，將成長重點放在宏觀趨勢和成長領域時，我們就能靈活快速地運作。

But that's really been the first 120 days. And I can tell you, I'm very, very excited about what I found because rarely do you find the combination of a very strong balance sheet, very strong cash generation, tremendous heritage in terms of technology, excellent customer reputation and relationships, a very willing and engaged team that I'm working with, a very willing and engaged workforce overall that's very proud and very ready to take this to the next level. So we're really excited about May 20 to share with you what we have so far and where we're headed. And so yes, and to be able to share that.

但這其實只是前120天的情況。我可以告訴你，我對我的發現感到非常非常興奮，因為你很少能找到這樣一家公司：擁有非常強勁的資產負債表、非常強勁的現金流、在技術方面擁有深厚的底蘊、卓越的客戶聲譽和關係、一支積極投入的團隊（我正在與他們一起工作），以及一支積極投入、充滿自豪感並已準備好將公司推向新高度的員工隊伍。所以我們非常興奮地期待 5 月 20 日與大家分享我們目前的成果以及未來的發展方向。是的，能夠分享這些真是太好了。

Just one follow-up. Free cash flow generation was pretty strong in Q4. And what are the major drivers behind this performance? And as we look forward to 2026 with the $350 million free cash flow target, which areas will we focus on to achieve this? And do you see any potential upside?

還有一個後續問題。第四季自由現金流表現相當強勁。而這種表現背後的主要驅動因素是什麼？展望 2026 年，我們的目標是實現 3.5 億美元的自由現金流，那麼我們將重點放在哪些領域來實現這一目標？你認為它有任何潛在的上漲空間嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Tomo. This is Mike. So really, in the fourth quarter, fourth quarter is typically a strong free cash quarter for us anyway. And across the board, excellent performance in working capital. The teams brought in AR reduced days. So really, it was working capital management on top of the earnings that contributed to the fourth quarter.

當然可以。謝謝你，托莫。這是麥克。所以實際上，第四季通常都是我們自由現金流強勁的季度。整體而言，營運資金表現優異。團隊引入AR技術後，工作日縮短了。所以，實際上，除了獲利之外，營運資本管理也是第四季業績成長的主要原因。

Looking forward to next year, it's another year of -- with improved earnings. And then we are expecting CapEx in the, call it, 3.5% range, which is on the low end of our typical range. So that doesn't help with cash flow, but obviously, spending on the lower end, taking less free cash flow -- or less operating cash flow. So that's what we're looking for, for next year, is just, I'll say, continued working capital performance and leveraging the earnings.

展望明年，又是獲利成長的一年。然後我們預計資本支出將在 3.5% 左右，這處於我們通常範圍的低端。所以這對現金流沒有幫助，但顯然，減少支出會減少自由現金流——或減少經營現金流。所以，這就是我們明年所期待的，我只能說，繼續保持良好的營運資本表現並充分利用獲利能力。

We have time for one more question. And our final question today comes from Chris Dankert with Loop Capital Markets.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。今天的最後一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Dankert。

I guess, Lucian, as you've been looking around the enterprise, the manufacturing footprint has been on kind of a long-term move to cost-optimized regions, thinking Mexico, UK, what have you. As 80/20 kind of really kicks in, are you seeing further opportunity in the manufacturing footprint? How impactful are tariffs in terms of thinking about that realignment? Maybe just what the opportunity is on manufacturing footprint would be helpful.

盧西安，我想，正如你一直在關注公司的情況一樣，製造佈局一直在向成本優化的地區進行長期轉移，例如墨西哥、英國等等。隨著 80/20 法則真正發揮作用，您是否看到製造業佈局還有進一步的機會？關稅在考慮這種調整時有多大影響？或許了解製造業佈局方面的機會是什麼會很有幫助。

Yes. So the one-word answer to your question is yes. We see opportunity. The manufacturing footprint of the future, or at least of the present, is very different from what it's been in the past. Not too many years ago was put it in one place, have a lot of scale and stay there forever.

是的。所以，對於你的問題，一個字的答案是肯定的。我們看到了機會。未來的製造業佈局，或至少現在的製造業佈局，與過去截然不同。就在幾年前，人們把它放在一個地方，規模很大，然後永遠留在那裡。

And the name of the game now is agile and nimble, and because of tariffs primarily, because of geopolitics, because of supply chain -- potential supply chain disruptions. And so we're very fortunate to have that nimble footprint right now very nicely globally spread. As you said, if you look at our flagship factories, there's one in every region that is very strong, or more than one, frankly, in every region. We have a very strong footprint in India, we have a strong footprint in China, a good one in Eastern Europe, a good one in North America. And that's both across Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion.

現在，靈活敏捷才是致勝之道，這主要是因為關稅、地緣政治以及供應鏈——潛在的供應鏈中斷。因此，我們非常幸運，目前我們擁有靈活且分佈廣泛的全球業務。正如你所說，如果你看看我們的旗艦工廠，每個地區都有一個非常強大的工廠，或者坦白說，每個地區不只一家。我們在印度擁有非常強大的業務基礎，在中國擁有強大的業務基礎，在東歐和北美擁有良好的業務基礎。工程軸承和工業運動領域的情況都是如此。

But in the end, it is also about efficiency. So what that means is as we look at certain markets, and these are not general purpose factories necessarily, they're more aligned with certain industries, so if we look at doubling down in certain industries and then pulling away in others, then that also creates some opportunity.

但歸根究底，效率也很重要。這意味著，當我們審視某些市場時（這些市場不一定是通用工廠，它們更傾向於某些特定行業），如果我們加大對某些行業的投入，同時減少對其他行業的投入，那麼這也創造了一些機會。

But what I want to also tell you is another way we look at this is to say what export opportunities within that macro region does our footprint create. So our India footprint has certainly been instrumental in us gaining share in India. What does it do as a base for exports in emerging regions, whether that's in sub-Saharan Africa, whether that's in Central Asia, whether that's in the Middle East, whether that's in Southeast Asia? Likewise, our China footprint. So really thinking about those businesses. That's why we appointed those regional leaders too, thinking about those almost like a local business that's looking at the regional export markets and trying to leverage that footprint, that cost position.

但我還想告訴大家，我們看待這個問題的另一種方式是，看看我們的業務在該宏觀區域內創造了哪些出口機會。因此，我們在印度的業務佈局無疑對我們在印度獲得市場份額起到了至關重要的作用。它作為新興地區（無論是撒哈拉以南非洲、中亞、中東或東南亞）的出口基地發揮什麼作用？同樣，我們在中國的業務也存在問題。所以，我真的在認真考慮這些企業。這就是為什麼我們也任命了這些區域領導人，把他們看作是關注區域出口市場並試圖利用其市場份額和成本優勢的本地企業。

So it's an exciting opportunity. Our regional leaders are certainly very excited about that, to have a little more of that entrepreneurial spirit. But to do that, you really have to have, back to the earlier question, you have to have a global framework. You have to have the processes. You have to have the operating model in place so that you can allow that, call it, global systems, regional autonomy and decisions and empowerment, and allow that balance to happen.

所以這是一個令人興奮的機會。我們的區域領導人對此感到非常興奮，他們希望看到更多這樣的創業精神。但要做到這一點，回到先前的問題，你必須要有一個全球框架。你必須要有相應的流程。你必須建立相應的營運模式，才能實現所謂的全球體系、區域自主權、決策權和賦權，並實現這種平衡。

So that's what has me most excited is how do we leverage the footprint, but we also have room to simplify what we have, and really that will help us with our margins.

最讓我興奮的是我們如何利用現有資源，但我們也有空間簡化現有流程，這確實有助於提高我們的利潤率。

Yes. I mean it sounds like you're really thinking about things holistically. So looking forward to hear more about that at the Analyst Day. And I'll leave it there, but best luck on '26, guys.

是的。我的意思是，聽起來你確實在從整體上思考問題。非常期待在分析師日聽到更多相關資訊。我就說到這裡吧，祝各位2026年好運。

This concludes the Q&A session. Sir, do you have any final comments or remarks?

問答環節到此結束。先生，您還有什麼最後要補充或評論嗎？

Thanks, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me. Thank you, and this concludes our call.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝各位今天收看我們的節目。如果您在今天的通話後還有任何疑問，請與我聯絡。謝謝，我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for participating in Timken's fourth-quarter earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加鐵姆肯公司第四季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。