Timken Co (TKR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Timken's third quarter earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫艾米麗，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表鐵姆肯公司歡迎各位參加第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Mr. Frohnapple, you may begin your conference.

弗羅納普爾先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This is Neil Frohnapple, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today. Before we begin our remarks this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation materials on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。這是鐵姆肯公司投資者關係副總裁尼爾·弗羅納普爾。感謝您今天蒞臨。在今天早上開始發言之前，我想指出，我們已經在公司網站上發布了演示材料，我們將在今天對季度業績進行回顧時參考這些材料。

You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

您也可以透過財報電話會議網路直播連結上的下載功能取得這些資料。

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Lucian Boldea, and Mike Vicenza, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Lucian and Mike before we open up the call for your questions. During the Q&A, I would ask that you please limit your questions to one question in one follow-up at a time to allow everyone a chance to participate.

今天陪同我出席的有鐵姆肯公司總裁兼執行長盧西安·博爾迪亞，以及我們的財務長麥克·維琴察。今天上午，在正式開始接受大家提問之前，盧西安和麥克將分別致開幕詞。在問答環節，請各位每次只提出一個問題，以便每個人都有機會參與。

During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC which are available on the timken.com website.

在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到一些與我們未來財務表現、計劃和業務運營相關的預測性陳述。由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中對此進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 timken.com 網站上查閱。

We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials. Today's call is copyrighted by -- the Timken Company and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call.

我們在新聞稿和簡報資料中加入了非GAAP財務資訊與其GAAP等效資訊之間的調節表。現今的通話內容受 Timken 公司版權保護，未經明確書面許可，禁止以任何方式使用、錄製或傳播通話的任何部分。

With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in The Timken Company. And I will now turn the call over to Lucian.

在此，我謹代表鐵姆肯公司感謝您的關注。現在我將把通話轉給盧西安。

Thanks, Neil, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Timken and for joining our call today. I'm excited to lead Timken into the future, and I strongly believe there is opportunity here to create significant value for shareholders. Since this is my first earnings call, I would like to thank Rich Kyle for his leadership as CEO, along with members of the Timken Board for their support. I've also enjoyed meeting many of our employees, and I'm impressed with their clear sense of purpose and commitment to our customers.

謝謝你，尼爾，大家早安。感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的關注，並感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我很榮幸能夠帶領鐵姆肯公司走向未來，我堅信這裡蘊藏著為股東創造巨大價值的機會。由於這是我第一次參加財報電話會議，我要感謝 Rich Kyle 擔任執行長的領導，以及 Timken 董事會成員的支持。我也很高興見到了我們許多員工，他們清晰的目標感和對客戶的承諾給我留下了深刻的印象。

I have covered a lot of ground during my first 60 days on the job, and today, I'll share with you some of my early observations where I see potential going forward. But first, let me emphasize that our management team's top priority is finishing the year strong. Mike will cover the details.

在我上任的頭 60 天裡，我取得了巨大的進展。今天，我將與大家分享一些我早期的觀察，以及我認為未來發展有潛力的面向。但首先，我要強調的是，我們管理團隊的首要任務是確保今年圓滿成功。麥克會負責細節。

But in the third quarter, we increased revenue, expanded operating margins and grew adjusted earnings per share double digits versus last year. We also generated significant cash flow, and we strengthened the balance sheet. We are moving with urgency to position the company for earnings growth in 2026. The Timken franchise is very strong, been built over 125 years and recognized in global industrial markets for our technical leadership, robust product portfolio and deep customer commitment.

但第三季度，我們的營收有所成長，營業利潤率有所提高，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期實現了兩位數成長。我們也創造了可觀的現金流，並增強了資產負債表。我們正緊急採取行動，為公司在 2026 年實現獲利成長做好準備。鐵姆肯的品牌實力非常強大，歷經 125 年的發展，憑藉其技術領先地位、強大的產品組合和對客戶的堅定承諾，在全球工業市場享有盛譽。

From this foundation, I believe we have tremendous potential to expand positions in key markets drive profitable growth and create significant value. This is what attracted me to Timken. Prior to joining, I was impressed with the company's focus on innovation and how well Timken collaborates with customers. Now from the inside, I can see the team's unwavering integrity and commitment to quality, excellent process and world-class engineering talent that makes it all possible.

基於此，我相信我們有巨大的潛力擴大在關鍵市場的地位，推動獲利成長並創造巨大價值。這就是我被鐵姆肯公司吸引的原因。在加入公司之前，我就對公司注重創新以及鐵姆肯與客戶的良好合作方式印象深刻。現在從內部來看，我能看到團隊堅定不移的誠信和對品質的承諾、卓越的流程以及世界一流的工程人才，正是這些使這一切成為可能。

A significant part of my time has been spent reviewing the portfolio, the operating model, our products and services and also collaborating with our leadership team to better understand our customers' needs. It's clear that the company is successful at adding value for customers in engineered to order mission-critical applications for quality, performance and reliability matter. This is true across our portfolio of closely adjacent products within Engineering bearings and also industrial motion solutions.

我花了大量時間來審查產品組合、營運模式、產品和服務，並與領導團隊合作，以便更好地了解客戶的需求。很明顯，該公司在為客戶量身定制的關鍵任務應用領域取得了成功，因為品質、性能和可靠性至關重要。這一點在我們工程軸承和工業運動解決方案等密切相關的產品組合中都適用。

Our complementary product portfolio serves common customers and applications through similar sales channels. We also have strong positions in essential industries, such as rail, aerospace and defense, heavy industries and wind energy. And we're targeting further growth in newer end markets with Timken, like automation and food and beverage. The company has operating discipline across its manufacturing footprint generates significant cash flow and has a solid balance sheet.

我們互補的產品組合透過類似的銷售管道服務於共同的客戶和應用領域。我們在鐵路、航空航太和國防、重工業和風能等關鍵產業也擁有強大的地位。我們正與鐵姆肯公司合作，瞄準自動化、食品飲料等新興終端市場，以便進一步成長。該公司在其生產基地擁有嚴格的營運紀律，能夠產生可觀的現金流，並擁有穩健的資產負債表。

With this strong foundation, I see many opportunities to improve top line and also bottom line performance. To start, we intend to approach the portfolio with an 80/20 mindset to structurally improve margins, grow faster in the most profitable verticals and create significant value for shareholders by focusing on the actions that will have the most impact.

憑藉這堅實的基礎，我看到了許多提升營收和利潤的機會。首先，我們打算以 80/20 的思維方式來管理投資組合，透過專注於那些能夠產生最大影響的行動，從根本上提高利潤率，在最賺錢的垂直領域實現更快成長，並為股東創造重大價值。

Margin expansion is a key focus for our team and will leave no stone unturned as we review the business for margin potential. I also believe there is opportunity to raise Temkin's organic growth algorithm by expanding our market focus in fast-growing regions and verticals and launching new products and services.

提高利潤率是我們團隊的重點工作，我們將不遺餘力地審查業務的利潤潛力。我也相信，透過擴大我們在快速成長的地區和垂直領域的市場關注度，並推出新產品和服務，可以提高 Temkin 的有機成長演算法。

Capitalizing on the strength of the Timken brand and utilizing our global footprint can help us further grow revenue at many of our acquired businesses, taking them into new regions of the world. In addition, I see how continued integration of our acquisitions can deliver synergy across the entire portfolio, a greater focus on leveraging our strong market position and aftermarket presence will drive increased cross-selling of our broad product offering.

充分利用鐵姆肯品牌的優勢和我們的全球佈局，可以幫助我們進一步提高許多已收購企業的收入，並將它們帶入世界新地區。此外，我認為持續整合我們的收購項目可以在整個產品組合中產生協同效應，更加重視利用我們強大的市場地位和售後市場影響力將推動我們廣泛的產品交叉銷售。

By leveraging strengths across our portfolio more holistically, innovating new products and delivering best-in-class service we believe we can outgrow our underlying markets. These are a few of the opportunities that I believe will increase Timken's earnings power based on my review over the past two months, but there is much more work to be on. Our team is focused on operating with urgency and rigor as we work to position Timken for stronger growth and higher margins.

我們相信，透過更全面地利用我們產品組合中的優勢，創新新產品，並提供一流的服務，我們可以超越我們現有的市場。根據我過去兩個月的觀察，我認為以下幾個機會將提高鐵姆肯的獲利能力，但還有很多工作要做。我們的團隊專注於以緊迫感和嚴謹性開展工作，努力使鐵姆肯公司實現更強勁的成長和更高的利潤率。

With that, let me turn over the call to Mike for a more detailed review of the results and outlook. Mike?

接下來，我將把電話交給麥克，讓他對結果和前景進行更詳細的分析。麥克風？

Thanks, Lucian, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here on my first call as CFO and for the opportunity to partner with Lucian and the rest of the Timken team to accelerate value creation for our stakeholders.

謝謝你，盧西安，大家早安。我很高興能以財務長的身份參加第一次電話會議，並有機會與盧西安和鐵姆肯團隊的其他成員合作，加速為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

For the financial review, I'm going to start on slide 6 of the materials with a summary of third quarter results. Overall, revenue for the quarter was $1.16 billion, which is up 2.7% from last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 17.4%, a 50 basis point increase. And adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $1.37, up 11% from last year.

財務回顧部分，我將從資料的第 6 頁開始，概述第三季業績。該季度總營收為 11.6 億美元，比去年同期成長 2.7%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.4%，成長了 50 個基點。該季度調整後每股收益為 1.37 美元，比去年同期成長 11%。

Turning to slide 7. Let's take a closer look at our third quarter sales. Organically, sales were up 0.6% from last year. The increase was driven by higher pricing across both segments and modest volume growth in engineered bearings which more than offset lower demand in the Industrial Motion segment. Looking at the rest of the revenue walk, the CGI acquisition and foreign currency translation each contributed approximately 1% of growth to the top line.

翻到第7張投影片。讓我們仔細看看第三季的銷售情況。從有機成長來看，銷售額比去年成長了0.6%。此次成長是由於兩個細分市場的價格上漲以及工程軸承銷售的小幅增長，足以抵消工業運動細分市場需求的下降。從其他收入組成來看，CGI 收購和外幣折算分別對營收成長貢獻了約 1%。

On the right, you can see third quarter performance in terms of organic growth by region. This excludes both currency and acquisitions. Let me give you some color on each region. In the Americas, our largest region, we were down 1%, with growth in North America, slightly more than offset by lower revenue in Latin America. By sector, revenue was higher in general industrial and aerospace while we had lower shipments in the rail, renewable energy and on-highway markets.

右側圖表顯示了第三季各地區有機成長。這不包括貨幣兌換和收購。讓我來跟每個地區介紹一下情況。在我們最大的地區美洲，我們的收入下降了 1%，北美地區的成長略微超過了拉丁美洲地區收入下降帶來的成長。按行業劃分，一般工業和航空航太領域的收入較高，而鐵路、再生能源和公路市場的出貨量較低。

In Asia Pacific, we were up 2% from last year, led by growth in China with a significant increase again in wind energy shipments. India was up slightly in the quarter, while the rest of the region was lower. And finally, we were up 2% in EMEA, led by growth across the off-highway, rail and heavy industry sectors, partially offset by lower on-highway revenue. Note that this is the first time the region posted growth in more than two years, which is great to see.

在亞太地區，我們比去年成長了 2%，這主要得益於中國市場的成長，尤其是風能出貨量再次大幅成長。印度本季略有成長，而該地區其他地區則有所下降。最後，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業績成長了 2%，這主要得益於非公路、鐵路和重工業領域的成長，但部分被公路收入的下降所抵消。值得注意的是，這是該地區兩年多來首次實現成長，這令人欣喜。

Turning to slide 8, adjusted EBITDA was $202 million or 17.4% of sales in the third quarter, compared to $190 million or 16.9% of sales last year. We achieved nearly 40% incremental margins in the quarter, driven by improved operating performance more than offsetting the dilutive impact of tariffs.

翻到第 8 張投影片，第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.02 億美元，佔銷售額的 17.4%，而去年同期為 1.9 億美元，佔銷售額的 16.9%。本季我們實現了近 40% 的利潤成長，主要得益於營運績效的改善，足以抵銷關稅帶來的稀釋影響。

Looking at the year-over-year change in adjusted EBITDA dollars, you can see the increase was driven collectively by several factors, which more than offset the impact of lower volume and incremental gross tariff costs. Let me comment a little further on the different drivers.

從調整後的 EBITDA 美元同比變化來看，可以看出成長是由多種因素共同推動的，這些因素足以抵消銷售下降和毛關稅成本增加的影響。讓我再就不同的驅動因素做一些補充說明。

On price/mix, pricing was positive in the quarter, while mix was negative. Pricing was also up sequentially from the second quarter as we continue to put through pricing actions to mitigate the impact from tariffs. And as you can see on the slide, tariffs were a $20 million headwind versus last year and costs were also higher sequentially.

從價格/組合來看，本季定價表現良好，但組合表現不佳。由於我們持續採取價格措施以減輕關稅的影響，價格也比第二季較上季上漲。正如您在幻燈片中看到的，關稅比去年造成了 2000 萬美元的不利影響，而且成本也比去年同期上升。

Looking at material and logistics. Costs were notably lower versus last year, driven mostly by savings tactics in the engineered bearings segment. Moving to the SG&A other line. Expenses were down from last year, driven by cost reduction initiatives and lower accruals for bad debt. Currency added $4 million to adjusted EBITDA while our CGI acquisition contributed $3 million and was accretive to company margins again in the third quarter.

考察材料和物流。與去年相比，成本明顯降低，這主要是由於工程軸承領域採取了節省成本的策略。轉到銷售、一般及行政費用的其他項目。支出較去年下降，主要得益於成本削減措施和壞帳準備金減少。貨幣因素使調整後 EBITDA 增加了 400 萬美元，而我們對 CGI 的收購貢獻了 300 萬美元，並在第三季再次提高了公司利潤率。

Keep in mind that CGI was included in the acquisitions line for only about two months this quarter as we pass the one-year ownership mark in early September.

請注意，CGI 在本季度只被計入收購項目約兩個月，因為我們在 9 月初就達到了持有 CGI 一年的里程碑。

Now let's move to our business segment results, starting with Engineered Bearings on slide 9. Engineered Bearing sales were $766 million in the quarter, up 3.4% from last year. Organically, sales were up 2.7%, driven by higher pricing and higher volumes, with growth across all geographic regions during the quarter. Among market sectors, renewable energy, aerospace and general industrial achieved the strongest gains versus last year. We also posted growth in off-highway and rail while auto truck declined from last year.

現在讓我們來看看業務部門的業績，首先是第 9 頁的工程軸承業務。本季工程軸承銷售額為 7.66 億美元，比去年同期成長 3.4%。受價格上漲和銷量成長的推動，有機銷售額成長了 2.7%，本季所有地理區域均實現成長。在各個市場板塊中，再生能源、航空航太和一般工業板塊與去年相比增幅最大。我們的非公路運輸和鐵路運輸業務也實現了成長，而汽車卡車運輸業務則比去年有所下降。

Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA was $144 million, or 18.8% of sales in the third quarter, compared to $138 million, or 18.7% of sales last year. Margins came in above expectations as higher-than-anticipated sales volumes and strong operating performance by our team more than offset the unfavorable margin impact from tariffs. And note that currency was a headwind to margins in the quarter. and excluding FX, organic incremental margins were nearly 40%.

工程軸承業務第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.44 億美元，佔銷售額的 18.8%，去年同期為 1.38 億美元，佔銷售額的 18.7%。由於銷售量高於預期，加上團隊強勁的營運表現，利潤率超出預期，足以抵銷關稅帶來的不利影響。值得注意的是，匯率波動對本季的利潤率造成了不利影響。剔除匯率因素後，有機成長利潤率接近40%。

Now let's turn to Industrial Motion on slide 10. Industrial Motion sales were $391 million in the quarter, up 1.3% from last year. The CGI acquisition contributed 2.9% to the top line, while currency translation was a benefit of 1.9%. Organically, sales declined 3.5% as lower demand was partially offset by higher pricing. The organic volume decline was mostly driven by lower solar demand and a decrease in services revenue.

現在讓我們來看第 10 張投影片中的工業運動部分。該季度工業運動部門的銷售額為 3.91 億美元，比去年同期成長 1.3%。CGI 的收購為公司營收貢獻了 2.9%，而匯率變動帶來了 1.9% 的收益。由於需求下降被價格上漲部分抵消，有機銷售額下降了 3.5%。有機銷售量下降主要是由於太陽能需求下降和服務收入減少所致。

Our services business was down against a tough comp last year, and we continue to see some customers delaying maintenance spend. And as expected, the Belt and Chain platform was down from last year, as it continues to be impacted by lower agriculture demand in North America.

去年由於同期基數較高，我們的服務業務有所下滑，而且我們仍然看到一些客戶推遲了維護支出。正如預期的那樣，「產業鏈」平台較去年有所下滑，因為它繼續受到北美農業需求下降的影響。

On the positive side, our Couplings platform was up in the quarter, while Lubrication Systems and Linear Motion were relatively flat. Industrial Motion adjusted EBITDA was $75 million, or 19% of sales in the third quarter, compared to $74 million, or 19.2% of sales last year. The slight decline in segment margins primarily reflects the impact of lower volume and incremental gross tariff costs, offset by favorable pricing, lower SG&A expense and the benefit of the CGI acquisition to margins in the quarter.

從正面的方面來看，我們的聯軸器平台在本季有所成長，而潤滑系統和直線運動則相對持平。工業運動公司第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 7,500 萬美元，佔銷售額的 19%，去年同期為 7,400 萬美元，佔銷售額的 19.2%。該業務板塊利潤率略有下降，主要反映了銷售下降和毛關稅成本增加的影響，但有利的定價、較低的銷售、一般及行政費用以及本季度收購 CGI 對利潤率的提振作用抵消了這些影響。

Moving to slide 11. You can see that we generated operating cash flow of $201 million in the third quarter. And after CapEx of $37 million, free cash flow was $164 million up significantly from last year, and we expect to generate more than $100 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter. Looking at the balance sheet.

切換到第11張投影片。您可以看到，我們在第三季產生了 2.01 億美元的營運現金流。在投入 3,700 萬美元資本支出後，自由現金流為 1.64 億美元，比去年大幅成長，我們預計第四季將產生超過 1 億美元的自由現金流。查看資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.1 times and which is near the middle of our targeted range. Note that we strengthened the balance sheet from last quarter as we reduced net debt by $115 million, and you can see that our net leverage improved compared to June 30.

第三季末，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.1 倍，接近我們目標範圍的中位數。請注意，與上個季度相比，我們的資產負債表得到了加強，淨債務減少了 1.15 億美元，您可以看到，與 6 月 30 日相比，我們的淨槓桿率有所改善。

Now let's turn to the updated outlook for full year 2025 with a summary on slide 13. Overall, we are reaffirming the midpoint of our earnings guidance range of $5.25 as the better-than-expected third quarter results are offsetting an incremental $0.05 per share headwind from tariffs and a lower outlook for the fourth quarter. With respect to net sales, we raised the full year outlook by 50 basis points versus the midpoint of the prior guide. Specifically, we are now planning for 2025 sales to be down approximately 0.75% in total at the midpoint.

現在讓我們來看看 2025 年全年的最新展望，第 13 頁有摘要。總體而言，我們重申每股收益預期區間的中點為 5.25 美元，因為好於預期的第三季度業績抵消了關稅帶來的每股 0.05 美元的額外不利因素以及第四季度預期下調的影響。關於淨銷售額，我們將全年預期值比之前預期值的中點值上調了 50 個基點。具體來說，我們現在預計 2025 年的銷售額中位數將下降約 0.75%。

Organically, we expect sales to be down around 1.75% and which is slightly better than our prior guide driven by the stronger-than-expected volumes in the third quarter. Currency is now expected to be slightly positive to the top line for the full year versus flat in the prior outlook while there is no change to our M&A assumption.

從有機成長來看，我們預期銷售額將下降約 1.75%，比我們先前的預期略好，主要得益於第三季銷量強於預期。與先前的預期相比，匯率目前預計將對全年營收產生略微正面的影響，而我們的併購假設則沒有變化。

Now let me provide a little more color on the updated organic revenue outlook. The implied outlook for the fourth quarter is for a 2% year-over-year decline. Note that this factors in a greater-than-normal seasonal sequential decline. The evolving trade situation continues to weigh on industrial market activity, and we are planning for customers to be cautious through year-end. And recall that last year's fourth quarter benefited from a sizable military marine project, which is impacting the Industrial Motion segment organic sales comparison.

現在讓我更詳細地介紹一下更新後的有機收入前景。第四季的隱含預期是年減 2%。請注意，這考慮到了比正常情況更大的季節性連續下降。不斷變化的貿易狀況繼續對工業市場活動構成壓力，我們預計客戶在年底前仍將保持謹慎。此外，去年第四季受益於一項規模可觀的軍用船舶項目，這影響了工業運動部門的有機銷售額比較。

Moving to margins. Our full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins are now expected to be in the low to mid-17% range. This implies that fourth quarter margins will be down around 100 basis points from last year, driven by higher corporate expense, a dilutive impact from tariffs and lower profitability in the Industrial Motion segment driven by the absence of last year's favorable military marine project.

移至邊緣。我們預計全年合併調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將在 17% 左右。這意味著第四季度利潤率將比去年同期下降約 100 個基點，主要原因是企業支出增加、關稅帶來的稀釋影響以及工業運動部門盈利能力下降（因為去年有利的軍事海洋項目沒有完成）。

With respect to cash flow, we're reaffirming our outlook to generate $375 million of free cash flow at the midpoint, which would be more than 130% conversion on GAAP net income. On slide 14, we provide an updated view on our 2025 organic sales by market and sector. Relative to the prior guide, we increased the outlook for renewable energy, driven by higher wind shipments. Overall, the net change among all the market sectors you see in the chart supports the slightly improved full year organic sales outlook.

關於現金流，我們重申先前的預期，在中點時將產生 3.75 億美元的自由現金流，這將比 GAAP 淨收入轉換率高出 130% 以上。在第 14 張幻燈片中，我們提供了按市場和行業劃分的 2025 年有機銷售額的最新展望。與先前的指南相比，我們提高了對再生能源的預期，主要原因是風能出貨量增加。總體而言，圖表中顯示的所有市場板塊的淨變化支持全年有機銷售前景略有改善。

Moving to slide 15. Here, we provide an overview and update on the direct impact of tariffs on Timken. We covered most of this on previous earnings calls, so let me just hit the changes. We're currently estimating a full year net negative impact from tariffs of approximately $15 million, or $0.15 per share. This was more of a headwind than our prior estimate of $10 million, or $0.10 per share driven by the increase in the tariff rate on India and the expansion of Section 232 tariffs. The situation continues to evolve, but we still expect that our mitigation tactics will enable us to recapture the margin in 2026.

切換到第15張投影片。在此，我們將概述並更新關稅對鐵姆肯公司的直接影響。我們在之前的財報電話會議上已經討論過大部分內容，所以我只簡單介紹一下變化。我們目前估計關稅將對全年造成約 1500 萬美元的淨負面影響，即每股 0.15 美元。這比我們之前估計的 1000 萬美元（或每股 0.10 美元）更具不利影響，原因是印度關稅稅率的提高和 232 條款關稅的擴大。情況仍在不斷變化，但我們仍然期望我們的緩解策略能夠使我們在 2026 年重新奪回利潤空間。

In summary, the company delivered better-than-expected third quarter results, and the team is focused on finishing the year strong. While still early, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook as we head into next year based on some encouraging order trends in a few of our markets and considering how long our industrial markets have been down. Timken remains well positioned to leverage our recovery in market volumes into higher profitability, and we expect to benefit from the strategic priorities that Lucian highlighted.

總而言之，該公司第三季業績好於預期，團隊正專注於以強勁的勢頭結束今年。雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但鑑於我們部分市場的訂單趨勢令人鼓舞，以及考慮到我們的工業市場已經低迷了很長時間，我們對明年的前景持謹慎樂觀態度。鐵姆肯仍處於有利地位，能夠利用市場銷售的復甦轉化為更高的獲利能力，我們期待從盧西安強調的策略重點中受益。

Let me turn it back over to Lucian for some final remarks before we open the line for questions. Lucian?

在開放提問環節之前，我先把麥克風交還給盧西安，讓他做最後的總結發言。盧西安？

Thank you, Mike. I hope you come away from today's call with a sense that the Timken team is focused on taking the company's financial performance to the next level. We're approaching things with an open mind, and I look forward to continuing to hear your thoughts and ideas. Your perspective is critical as we work to position the company for the future. We will have much more to share in the coming months. To that end, we plan to host an Investor Day in the second quarter of next year where we will outline our strategic vision and priorities in more detail.

謝謝你，麥克。我希望您透過今天的電話會議後能夠感受到，鐵姆肯​​團隊正致力於將公司的財務表現提升到一個新的水平。我們以開放的心態對待各項事宜，期待繼續聆聽你們的想法和建議。您的意見對我們規劃公司未來發展至關重要。未來幾個月，我們將分享更多資訊。為此，我們計劃在明年第二季舉辦投資者日活動，屆時我們將更詳細地闡述我們的策略願景和優先事項。

Thanks, Lucian. This concludes our formal remarks, and we'll now open up the line for questions. Operator?

謝謝你，盧西安。我們的正式演講到此結束，現在我們將開放提問環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

（操作說明）布萊恩·布萊爾，奧本海默。

To level set on the near-term outlook, are you already seeing the kind of sequential weakness or incremental weakness that you've baked into the guide? Or is that simply the assumption of your team, given the backdrop to mosaic as it is that a sequential decline in order rates is going to occur as Q4 moves forward.

為了對近期前景進行客觀分析，您是否已經看到了您在指南中預測的那種連續性疲軟或漸進性疲軟？或者，這只是你們團隊的假設，鑑於馬賽克目前的情況，訂單率將隨著第四季的推進而逐季下降。

So thanks for the question, Brian. Let me just say that our outlook includes the latest order trends. And we did see in the third quarter some seasonally declining order book, but yet year-over-year order book was up. So as I think about it, overall, the patterns we're seeing are supportive of the fourth quarter guide. I wouldn't say that we're losing share or anything, nothing notable like that. So really more, I would say, cautious given the tariff situation, the uncertain trade environment. but the guide incorporates kind of our latest thinking and what we've seen.

謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。我只想說，我們的展望包含了最新的訂單趨勢。第三季我們確實看到訂單量出現季節性下降，但年比訂單量卻有所成長。所以，我仔細想了想，整體而言，我們看到的趨勢支持第四季的業績指引。我不會說我們正在失去市場份額之類的，沒有什麼值得注意的變化。所以，鑑於關稅情勢和不確定的貿易環境，我認為我們應該更加謹慎。但這份指南融合了我們最新的思考和我們所觀察到的情況。

Okay. Understood. And Mike, you stressed cautious optimism on 2026 in prepared remarks. I realize that we're not going to have '26 guidance for a bit, but at a higher level, maybe offer what your team sees as the puts and takes given current visibility, looking to the new year? And if we are in a healthier demand environment, given the carryover of restructuring savings, other work that the team has done through 2025. What kind of incrementals should we anticipate next year?

好的。明白了。麥克，你在事先準備好的發言稿中強調了對2026年的謹慎樂觀態度。我知道我們暫時不會有 2026 年的業績指引，但從更高的層面來看，鑑於目前的形勢，展望新的一年，您的團隊能否提供一些他們認為的利弊分析？如果需求環境更健康，考慮到重組節省的結餘，以及團隊在 2025 年前所做的其他工作。明年我們應該預期會出現哪些方面的成長？

Yes, right. So as you say, a little early on 2026, but what I can say is we're moving with urgency. And you heard Lucian say that. We're moving with urgency really to position the company for earnings growth next year. We're focused on executing what we can control and looking to accelerate value creation for shareholders. So as we sit here today, we're cautiously optimistic on next year.

沒錯。正如你所說，現在距離 2026 年還有一段時間，但我可以肯定的是，我們正在以緊迫的步伐推進這項工作。你也聽到盧西安這麼說了。我們正在緊急推進各項工作，以確保公司明年獲利成長。我們專注於執行我們能夠控制的事項，並尋求加快為股東創造價值。所以，就目前而言，我們對明年持謹慎樂觀態度。

Based on some of the encouraging order trends that I referenced really across a few of our key markets. And I think as we've said on prior earnings calls, we are at the -- we've been an extended or year-over-year decline for quite some time. We'd like to think we're approaching the end of that. So when we combine all that, we remain cautiously optimistic for next year.

基於我在幾個主要市場中觀察到的一些令人鼓舞的訂單趨勢。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所說，我們已經經歷了相當長一段時間的同比下滑。我們希望這種情況即將結束。綜上所述，我們對明年仍保持謹慎樂觀的態度。

We're well positioned to leverage recovery and volumes when they come, and we'll leverage those into higher profitability. And then we do also expect to benefit from the strategic priorities that Lucian highlighted. So as we sit here today, early to call, but feeling cautiously optimistic and we do have a few tailwinds that would -- that would be behind us relative to the profitability. So looking to take the margins up next year and off of that higher volume if or when it comes through.

我們已做好充分準備，迎接經濟復甦和銷售成長，並利用這些優勢轉化為更高的獲利能力。此外，我們也期望能夠從盧西安強調的策略重點中受益。所以，現在下結論還為時過早，但我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，而且我們確實有一些利好因素——這些因素將對我們實現盈利起到積極作用。所以，我們希望明年能提高利潤率，如果銷量真的成長的話。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Lucian and Michael, congrats on the strong quarter, and I look forward to working with both of you. Maybe just to go back on the just wanted to go back on the organic growth implication for the fourth quarter here. Do you think that there was, I guess, a pull forward in the third quarter? Or could you just kind of expand a little bit more, maybe what you see or what you kind of saw in toward the kind of cadence you're guiding to in the fourth quarter by end market? And if you could talk about it on a monthly basis, too, I guess, what's the magnitude of declines that you've maybe seen in October? And what end markets is that may be more pronounced?

Lucian 和 Michael，恭喜你們本季業績出色，我期待與你們二位合作。也許只是想再談談第四季有機成長的影響。你覺得第三節比賽有沒有出現反撲的勢頭？或者您能否再詳細說，您認為第四季度終端市場的發展節奏會是什麼樣的？如果可以的話，我想按月來談談，您在十月看到的下降幅度有多大？那麼，哪些終端市場可能更為明顯呢？

Yes. So let me answer maybe the first part of that question. There's nothing we can point to, to say that we saw a pull forward into the third quarter. So nothing there that would give us an indication. Again, probably cautious on the fourth quarter. Nothing clearly in order patterns, customer behavior that says, we would see a deceleration just cautious as we have been on that outlook given the trade uncertainty. So really nothing specific to speak of and nothing indicative of a pull forward in the third quarter.

是的。那麼，就讓我來回答這個問題的第一部分吧。我們找不到任何跡象表明我們在第三節比賽中看到了反撲的跡象。所以，那裡沒有任何線索可以提供我們任何資訊。第四季可能還是會比較謹慎。訂單模式和客戶行為中沒有明顯跡象表明會出現放緩，但鑑於貿易的不確定性，我們一直對這一前景持謹慎態度。所以真的沒有什麼特別值得一提的，也沒有任何跡象顯示第三節會有所起色。

That's helpful. And then, I guess, just in terms of -- as we think about the headwind from tariffs here, I assume with things kind of kicking in for some of these on kind of November 1, there's maybe still a little bit of an incremental impact in 1Q. But can you talk about just your ability to recapture or start to really offset tariffs, should we assume that 1Q would be kind of incrementally worse or your mitigation strategies really start to kick in, whether it's price or cost and therefore, we should assume that this is probably more of a trough, all else equal from a volume standpoint?

那很有幫助。然後，我想，就關稅帶來的不利影響而言——考慮到其中一些關稅措施從 11 月 1 日開始生效，我估計第一季可能還會產生一些漸進的影響。但是，您能否談談您重新奪回或真正開始抵消關稅的能力？我們是否應該假設第一季的情況會逐漸惡化，或者您的緩解策略（無論是價格還是成本）會真正開始發揮作用？因此，我們是否應該假設這可能更像是一個低谷，從銷售的角度來看，其他條件不變？

Yes. So a couple of things. Obviously, we can -- focused on controlling what we can control around tariffs. So as you said, November 1 is a stated deadline and I can't control that. Just to be clear, though, that significant step-up in the China tariffs is not in our guide. So if that does occur, it would be an incremental headwind to where we are. As far as mitigation and recovery, we continue to put pricing through in the markets.

是的。有兩件事。顯然，我們可以——專注於控制我們能夠控制的關稅因素。正如你所說，11月1日是既定的最後期限，我無法控制。不過要澄清的是，中國大幅提高關稅並不在我們的指引範圍內。所以如果這種情況真的發生，將對我們目前的處境造成更大的不利影響。至於緩解和恢復措施，我們將繼續在市場上進行定價。

We put more pricing through in the third quarter. Other actions at our disposal around supply chain changes, et cetera. So we do expect to fully offset the tariff impact exiting this year and look to recapture those margins next year. So thinking about the first quarter next year and tariff offset, we are exiting the year at a higher pricing rate than the full year average.

我們在第三季推出了更多定價策略。我們也可以採取其他措施來應對供應鏈變化等問題。因此，我們預計今年將完全抵消關稅的影響，並期待明年重新獲得這些利潤。因此，考慮到明年第一季和關稅抵消，我們今年的定價率將高於全年平均。

If you think 1.5% pricing for the year, exiting the second half at greater than 2%. So think about that incremental is benefiting us in the first half of next year. So we do have some headwinds related to pricing to help offset that tariff impact and then other actions as well. So look to recapture those margins in 2026.

如果你認為全年價格為 1.5%，那麼下半年結束時價格將超過 2%。所以想想看，這種漸進式的改進將在明年上半年為我們帶來好處。因此，我們在定價方面確實面臨一些不利因素，需要採取一些措施來抵消關稅的影響，此外還有其他一些措施。因此，力爭在 2026 年重新奪回這些利潤空間。

David Raso, Evercore.

David Raso，Evercore。

I'll be quick. And if I missed it, I apologize, a lot of companies this morning. The fourth quarter organic decline, did you give some color on the mix of that between the divisions and particularly, I also wanted to see how trends are going with the industrial distribution business. I noticed you maintain that guide for the end market.

我會盡快。如果我錯過了什麼，我深表歉意，今天早上有很多公司都錯過了。對於第四季的有機下滑，您能否詳細說明一下各部門之間的下滑情況？特別是，我也想了解工業分銷業務的發展趨勢。我注意到你們維護那份面向終端市場的指南。

The only one you bumped up was renewable. I'm just trying to get a sense of the mix in the '26. I think renewables is a pretty solid incremental margin business. So that picking up is interesting. But the industrial distribution, I see did not pick that up. So again, organic split on the segment for the fourth quarter and then color on those markets.

你唯一提價的就是再生能源。我只是想了解一下 '26 的混合。我認為再生能源是一個利潤成長相當穩定的業務。所以，撿東西這件事本身就很有趣。但我發現工業分銷管道並沒有註意到這一點。所以，再次強調，第四季該細分市場的有機成長情況，然後對這些市場進行顏色分析。

Sure. Thank you, David. So thinking about the segment split for the fourth quarter, we are expecting organic sales to be down in both segments. I would say, maybe a little more in Industrial Motion. We called out particularly on a year on year, we had a sizable marine -- military marine project last year that doesn't repeat. So -- but we are looking for organic revenue to be down in both segments.

當然。謝謝你，大衛。因此，考慮到第四季度的業務細分，我們預計兩個業務部門的有機銷售額都將下降。我認為，或許在工業運動方面可以再多一點。我們特別指出，去年我們有一個規模相當大的海軍陸戰隊——軍事海軍陸戰隊項目，但這個項目不會重複。所以——但我們預計這兩個業務領域的有機收入都會下降。

As far as distribution goes, yes, we did not move it. I would say it's moving inside of the range, if you will. So not enough to move us to move anything up or down. So nothing changing there. We are encouraged -- as we look forward, obviously, that is a channel that we're ready to serve. And if there's a market recovery, one that we would prioritize to serve. So we're well positioned for that to continue to go up. But relative to the fourth quarter, we're kind of keeping it where it was as we're not seeing anything that would indicate otherwise.

至於發行方面，是的，我們沒有轉移它。可以說，它目前處於正常範圍內。所以，這不足以促使我們做出任何向上或向下的調整。所以這方面沒有任何變化。我們感到鼓舞——展望未來，顯然，我們已準備好為該渠道提供服務。如果市場復甦，我們將優先服務該市場。因此，我們已做好充分準備，迎接價格繼續上漲。但就第四季而言，我們基本上維持現狀，因為我們沒有看到任何跡象表明情況會有所不同。

And on the renewable side?

那麼在再生能源方面呢？

Yes, sorry, renewables, right. So, we continue to see strength in really driven by kind of wind and renewables, as you know, split for us between wind and solar. And the strength really is on wind. Solar continues to be challenged for us. But on the renewables, we saw strength in the second quarter, and we know there were some legislation incentives in China that went away at the end of the second quarter.

是的，抱歉，是再生能源，對吧。因此，我們繼續看到強勁的成長勢頭，這主要得益於風能和可再生能源，正如您所知，對我們來說，風能和太陽能各佔一半。而真正的優勢在於風。太陽能對我們來說仍然面臨挑戰。但就再生能源而言，我們在第二季度看到了強勁成長，我們知道中國的一些立法激勵措施在第二季末已經取消了。

So we were maybe expecting more of a step down than we saw. So the strength there really was a bit of a happy surprise for us. But in terms of growth, I would still -- I would expect that to continue to be a growth opportunity for us, but nothing in terms of significant trends. We moved it -- we did move it to the right on that strength that we saw in the third quarter. So I'd expect renewables to continue to be part of our growth story and really driven by wind.

所以，我們或許預期會有比實際情況更大的下滑。所以，那裡的實力確實讓我們感到有些驚喜。但就成長而言，我仍然認為——我仍然認為這對我們來說是一個成長機會，但就重大趨勢而言，沒有什麼可期待的。我們把它向右移動了——憑藉我們在第三節看到的那股力量，我們確實把它向右移動了。因此，我預計再生能源將繼續成為我們成長故事的一部分，並且真正由風能驅動。

And lastly, I'll be quick. The organic growth turning back positive. As we think about it going into '26. Of your two businesses, which segment would you expect to see it first?

最後，我長話短說。有機成長轉正。當我們展望2026年。在您的兩項業務中，您認為哪個領域會率先看到這種情況？

Yes. I don't know if that's all really hard to pinpoint that. Obviously, the markets are going to drive where that goes. And as we're sitting here today, really hard to call next year's markets. So I can't say for sure where that would come from. So probably too early to call. We'll have a lot more information on that, obviously, in our next quarterly call.

是的。我不知道這一切是否真的很難準確指出。顯然，市場將決定事情的走向。而就目前來看，明年的市場走勢真的很難預測。所以我無法確定它究竟來自哪裡。所以現在下結論可能還太早。顯然，我們會在下次季度電話會議上提供更多相關資訊。

I appreciate that. I'm just trying to back into the industrial distribution, obviously a big slug of engineered bearings and it's pretty profitable. And I was just trying to get a sense, is that where we feel a little bit better about going to 26 in term of EB positive before maybe the automation side of Industrial Motion. Just trying to feel out on -- is there any hint of a restock on the distribution piece for EB, some of the off-highway businesses that were obviously significant drags so they're starting to turn a little bit year over year, but it sounds like you're not willing to say EB the first one up compared to IM. Is that fair?

我很感激。我只是想嘗試進入工業分銷領域，顯然主要是大量工程軸承，而且利潤相當豐厚。我只是想了解一下，在工業運動自動化方面之前，我們是否感覺在 EB 為正值方面達到 26 會更好一些。我只是想了解一下——EB的分銷業務是否有任何補貨的跡象，一些非公路業務顯然是主要的拖累因素，所以它們開始逐年好轉，但聽起來你並不願意說EB比IM更勝一籌。這樣公平嗎？

Yes, Angel, this is Lucian. So we're trying to use all the data at our disposal to try to sense this. So short answer is I don't think we know yet, as Mike said. But one of the things we do look at is distribution inventory. So you look at sales in, you look at sales out and you try to see a disconnect to predict an upturn or a downturn.

是的，Angel，這是Lucian。所以我們正在嘗試利用所有可用的數據來感知這一點。所以簡而言之，正如麥克所說，我認為我們還不知道答案。但我們確實會關注的一個方面是分銷庫存。所以你要觀察銷售額，觀察銷售額，然後試著找出兩者之間的脫節，以預測經濟的上升或下降趨勢。

And I would say, there is no data at that point in either direction. Inventories are not elevated. So that's the good news. They're kind of stable and then sales in and sales out are still reasonably matched. So there is nothing in there that says that a big change is imminent. But that's the type of same thing we're doing to prepare for foreign upturn.

我想說，目前沒有任何數據可以支持任何一方的觀點。庫存水準並不高。這是個好消息。它們比較穩定，而且銷售量和流入量也基本持平。所以，其中沒有任何跡象表明即將發生重大變化。但這正是我們為因應海外經濟復甦所採取的措施。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞集團。

Great. Welcome. Maybe I'll switch to some kind of a longer-term, bigger-picture questions. First and foremost, I guess, Lucian, your comments around 80/20 being a big focus for you. I'm just curious to see if companies are willing to do the PLS portion of 80/20. So I know you guys have talked about maybe deemphasizing some auto business next year. Any update on that? And any other areas where you think there's an opportunity to exit less profitable, whatever, businesses, processes, customers, any of that.

偉大的。歡迎。或許我會轉而探討一些更長遠、更宏觀的問題。首先，我想說的是，盧西安​​，你之前提到 80/20 法則是你非常關注的重點。我只是好奇公司是否願意承擔 80/20 中的 PLS 部分。我知道你們討論過明年可能會減少一些汽車業務。那件事有最新進展嗎？以及任何其他你認為有機會退出的領域，無論是獲利能力較差的業務、流程、客戶等等。

Yes. I mean -- appreciate the question. And we announced on purposes 80/20 approach to the portfolio and really narrowed it down to looking at the portfolio. And the reason is we think it's essential to unlocking value in the company. So if you think about what the outcomes would be, obviously, structurally improve margins and then grow faster in the most profitable verticals. So we want to approach this portfolio with a completely open mind and really come back to what we did announce in the prepared remarks that we're going to have an Investor Day in Q2. So by that time, really have a lot of clarity.

是的。我的意思是——感謝你的提問。我們宣布對投資組合採用 80/20 的方法，並將重點放在研究投資組合上。原因在於我們認為這對釋放公司價值至關重要。所以，如果你想想結果會是什麼，顯然，首先要從結構上提高利潤率，然後在利潤最高的垂直領域中更快成長。所以我們希望以完全開放的心態來對待這個投資組合，並真正回到我們在準備好的發言稿中宣布的內容，即我們將在第二季度舉辦投資者日活動。所以到那時，一切都會變得非常清晰。

But to step back and maybe share some of the thinking, some of the framework we do want every business in the portfolio to be contributing to the 20% EBITDA margin target. So that's kind of table stakes. And then once you do that analysis, you very quickly come out with the great businesses that we have, and there's plenty of them and then making choices in there to say, where do we double down, where do you invest to grow faster. There are fixed opportunities. And there, I think we're going to be very disciplined to not start long-term projects and really look at what are those businesses that can be turned around.

但退一步講，或許可以分享一些想法和框架，我們希望投資組合中的每個業務都能為實現 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率目標做出貢獻。所以這算是基本要求。然後，一旦你完成了分析，你很快就會發現我們有很多優秀的企業，然後從中做出選擇，例如，我們應該在哪裡加倍投入，應該在哪些方面投資才能更快地成長。機會是固定的。我認為，我們會非常自律，不會啟動長期項目，而是認真研究哪些企業可以扭轉局面。

And then there's the third category, and you alluded to some of that in your question, which is -- is there a business that's just not us. And in the end, what is not us, it might be a numerical number that it doesn't fit a margin target. But frankly, it might be something different. It might be a good business where we are just not the natural owner. It just doesn't fit who we want to be.

還有第三類，你在問題中也提到了一些，那就是──是否存在一種企業與我們截然不同。最終，不屬於我們的，可能只是一個不符合利潤目標的數字。但坦白說，情況可能有所不同。這或許是一門不錯的生意，只是我們不是合適的經營者。這跟我們想成為的人完全不符。

We are an engineer to engineer product development kind of work. We're not an RFQ to procurement type of business or not a high-volume business with a very low mix. That's not what's good for us. So what fits us best is those types of highly engineered solutions. And so we'll look at the portfolio with that angle.

我們從事的是工程師主導的產品開發工作。我們不是那種透過詢價採購來開展業務的公司，也不是那種產量高但產品種類很少的公司。那對我們不利。所以最適合我們的就是這類高度工程化的解決方案。因此，我們將從這個角度來檢視投資組合。

To get to your question about automotive, we have to put this in context and recognize we've gone from $1 billion of automotive business. So now we're talking about 8% of the portfolio to saying we're going to deal with half of the 8%, which is now a little over $100 million of the $1 billion that we once had. That activity is underway. Those conversations are underway in the marketplace that's not an internal Timken paper exercise.

要回答你關於汽車產業的問題，我們必須把它放在背景下看待，並認識到我們已經從10億美元的汽車產業發展到如今的規模。所以現在我們說的是投資組合的 8%，這意味著我們要處理這 8% 中的一半，也就是我們曾經擁有的 10 億美元中的 1 億美元多一點。該活動正在進行中。這些討論已經在市場上展開，而不是蒂姆肯公司內部的紙上談兵。

And we are moving in that direction we've communicated with our customers, we've communicated with partners. And so we're very clear about that. in the marketplace. Having said that, these are customers with multi-decade relationships that have platforms depending on us. So we also have to work with them on the timing.

我們正朝著這個方向努力，我們已經與客戶溝通過，也與合作夥伴溝通過。因此，我們在市場上對此非常清楚。話雖如此，這些客戶與我們有著長達數十年的合作關係，他們的平台也依賴我們。所以我們也需要和他們協商時間安排。

However, any arrangement has to be good for both parties. And so in the end, I think it's reasonable for you to expect that we will improve even that business going into 2026. In terms of what timing we have to make an announcement on that remaining 4%. We'll we can't commit to that today. We'll come to you when we have it. But the commitment that you do have is that is a business we are going to deal with as part of this 80/20 effort.

但是，任何安排都必須對雙方都有好處。因此，我認為最終你們有理由期待我們在 2026 年能改善這項業務。至於何時宣布剩餘 4% 的事宜。我們今天無法做出承諾。等我們有了就會來找你。但你們的承諾是，我們將把這項業務作為 80/20 計劃的一部分來處理。

Great. That's very helpful. And then maybe just semi-related, you guys have done quite a bit on the M&A front prior to your arrival. And now you talked about your leverage being about where you want it, you have a good cash flow year here. Just any change listen, in your view of the right way to allocate capital?

偉大的。那很有幫助。另外，或許有點相關，你們在來之前在併購方面已經做了很多工作。現在你提到你的槓桿率基本上達到了你的預期，今年的現金流狀況良好。任何改變，聽著，在你看來，這才是正確的資本配置方式嗎？

Yes. No immediate changes, obviously, we'll provide you more color when we talk about our strategy and the complete context of this. But no immediate change. It's really continuing that balanced capital allocation and continue to be disciplined is what you should expect to see from us. But I do want to say that, to your point that we've made acquisitions in the best.

是的。顯然，目前不會有任何變化，我們會在討論我們的策略和完整背景時提供更多細節。但短期內不會有任何變化。你們應該期待我們繼續保持均衡的資本配置和嚴謹的投資紀律。但我確實想說，正如您所說，我們已經在最好的方面進行了收購。

We have a tremendous portfolio of acquired businesses, and that's what I'm excited about when we do this 80/20 is really finding those opportunities. And frankly, we have some pretty good ideas of what they are where are the growth opportunities where we can double down. And I'll give you a couple of just teasers right now. We have several of the acquired businesses that are really almost a single region business. And there's no reason they should be that way. We're a global company with a 125-year history.

我們擁有龐大的收購企業組合，而我之所以對這種 80/20 策略感到興奮，是因為它真正能找到這些機會。坦白說，我們對這些領域有哪些成長機會，以及我們可以加大投入的地方，已經有了一些相當不錯的想法。我現在就給你們透露幾個小細節。我們收購的幾家企業其實幾乎都是單一區域企業。他們沒有理由這樣。我們是一家擁有125年歷史的全球性公司。

And so taking those businesses globally, is easier growth factor than entering a new market, a new application. And so that's one we plan to do. If you look at margin opportunities, the businesses that we've acquired and the legacy businesses serve the same end markets, the same end customers. So we can bring better solutions, more engineered solutions to our customers and, at the same time, reduce our cost to serve.

因此，將這些業務推向全球市場，比進入新市場、開發新應用更容易成長。所以這是我們計劃要做的事情之一。從利潤機會來看，我們收購的企業和原廠企業服務相同的終端市場，相同的終端客戶。這樣我們就能為客戶提供更好的解決方案、更完善的解決方案，同時降低我們的服務成本。

The IM businesses do have, at least today, as evidenced in the P&L a slightly higher cost to serve. The good news is it's the same cost to serve that we are already spending on the EB side. So now how can we continue that integration. The integration has been done in some of the businesses that we've acquired a while back, and we have efforts there, but the businesses that are newly acquired, they're not in the same place. And so we'll continue that integration.

至少從損益表來看，即時通訊業務的服務成本確實略高一些。好消息是，這與我們目前在 EB 方面投入的服務成本相同。那麼，我們現在該如何繼續推進這種整合呢？我們已經對一些先前收購的企業進行了整合，並且也一直在努力，但是對於新收購的企業，情況並非如此。因此，我們將繼續推動整合工作。

We'll accelerate it. We'll be more deliberate and then really targeting those end markets that go across EB and IM, where 1 plus 1 is more than 2. That's what this portfolio is going to drive. And that's one of the portfolio that we have. Obviously, to the extent that their gaps, then that's what more M&A is going to do. So we expect that, that effort will continue in a very targeted way, but we also expect to be able to at Investor Day, give you a lot more clarity to where any future M&A will be relatively straightforward to explain because we will have explained the strategy.

我們會加快進程。我們將更加謹慎，真正瞄準那些跨越 EB 和 IM 的終端市場，在這些市場中，1 加 1 大於 2。這就是該投資組合將要推動的方向。這是我們投資組合中的一項。顯然，如果它們之間存在差距，那麼更多的併購就能彌補這些差距。因此我們預計，這項工作將繼續以非常有針對性的方式進行，但我們也希望在投資者日上，能夠讓大家更清楚地了解未來的任何併購活動，因為我們已經解釋了相關策略，這將使併購活動更容易解釋。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Lucian, your comments around 80/20 have been interesting. I wanted to follow up -- just a little bit more. I mean when you came in and you were able to get a deeper look at the portfolio, I mean, is the idea that there was a wider dispersion in margin and growth than you might have expected?

Lucian，你對 80/20 的評論很有意思。我想再補充一點。我的意思是，當你加入並能夠更深入地了解投資組合後，你是否發現利潤率和成長率的分散程度比你預期的要大？

Or is it -- some of it's maybe obvious when you talked about engineer to engineer and not wanting to be an RFP business on volume scale, I'm just curious when you glanced the portfolio, did 80/20 leap out because there was a bigger spread than you would have expected? And what were your other impressions?

或者說——當你談到工程師之間的合作以及不想大規模開展 RFP 業務時，其中一些可能就很明顯了。我只是好奇，當你瀏覽作品集時，80/20 是否因為其範圍比你預期的要大而顯得格外突出？你還有其他什麼印象嗎？

Yes. No, thank you for the question. I'd say the bigger thing that leaps out is the degree of opportunity that exists in different regions market, business combinations. And so you have to get a little deeper to spot these. But as I said, one of the opportunities most obvious is just regional penetration for some of these businesses.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。我認為最引人注目的是不同地區市場和商業組合中存在的巨大機會。所以你需要更深入地觀察才能發現這些問題。但正如我所說，最顯而易見的機會之一就是這些企業在區域內的滲透。

And so there's a lot of growth opportunity. I mean, there are a lot of jewels in that portfolio. And so 80/20 sometimes we focus on what are we going to stop, and we definitely will do that rest assured. But I'm equally excited about what are we going to double down on, actually more excited on what we're going to double down on. And that's what really got me going on 80/20 when I look at the portfolio because there are several businesses out there that are doing very well.

因此，發展機會很多。我的意思是，那份作品集裡有很多珍品。所以，80/20法則有時讓我們專注於我們要停止什麼，而且我們一定會做到這一點，請放心。但我同樣興奮的是，我們將要加倍投入的是什麼，實際上，我對我們將要加倍投入的是什麼更加興奮。當我審視作品集時，真正讓我對 80/20 策略產生興趣的是，有很多企業都做得非常好。

And where we can double down and do even better. And when you have businesses like that, you win twice you accelerate your top line, but you also mix up. So that was more of the drivers to the extent that there are businesses in that portfolio that don't meet margin targets, then that's another lever that we definitely intend to exercise.

以及我們可以加倍努力做得更好的地方。當你擁有這樣的企業時，你會獲得雙重收益：一方面，你的收入會迅速成長；另一方面，你也會遇到一些問題。所以，如果投資組合中的某些業務未能達到利潤率目標，那麼這就是我們肯定會採取的另一個措施。

All right. That was a great answer. And then -- maybe this is one level too deep and you can tell me if so. But when you look at those opportunities to go global that hadn't been taken, was it your impression that there was a block. The study was done their competitive threat was deemed too big or whatever. Is it more just Timken has been a successful buyer and has not had a chance to fully elaborate? And I'll stop there.

好的。那真是個絕妙的回答。然後——也許這層意義太深了，如果你覺得是這樣，可以告訴我。但當你檢視那些尚未掌握的全球化機會時，你是否覺得有某種阻礙？這項研究之所以進行，是因為他們的競爭威脅被認為太大或其他原因。是不是因為鐵姆肯公司收購成功，所以還沒有機會充分展開討論？我就說到這裡吧。

Yes. You have to recognize that this is with two months in there also, it's easy for me to maybe make assumptions. But at least my hypothesis just in the spirit of transparency, its prioritization, it's just how many things can it do at once, and that's why really another reason for 80/20 because this is all about parading and saying, where are -- what are the largest opportunities -- and so that was part of the reason.

是的。你必須意識到，這其中也包含了兩個月的時間，所以我很容易做出一些假設。但至少我的假設是，本著透明的精神，它的優先順序，就是它能同時做多少事情，這也是 80/20 法則的另一個真正原因，因為這一切都是為了展示和宣告，最大的機會在哪裡——是什麼——所以這是部分原因。

The other part is historical. These businesses are entrenched. And this is not necessarily a new discovery that we're going to take a business that's regional into a new region. This was already underway. But really, choosing a few of them where you say, okay, we're going to actually double down, do it in a more deliberate market back way versus product forward. And so that's really more of a change in the approach. But I don't want you to walk away with. This is a brand-new idea that was not considered or not underway. It's just really accelerating it, doubling down on it in a few of the businesses that matter.

另一部分是歷史性的。這些企業根深蒂固。將區域性企業拓展到新的區域，這不一定是什麼新發現。這件事當時已經開始了。但實際上，選擇其中幾個，然後說，好吧，我們要加倍投入，採取更深思熟慮的市場反向策略，而不是產品反向策略。所以這其實是一種方法上的改變。但我不想讓你帶著這樣的想法離開。這是一個全新的想法，之前從未被考慮過或著手實施。這只是在加速這一進程，並在一些重要的業務領域加倍投入。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

Great. So it sounded like EMEA, up 2%. First time it saw growth in two years. So would love to hear a little bit more about what drove the return to growth in EMEA and just your level of confidence in growth sustaining in that region?

偉大的。聽起來像是歐洲、中東和非洲地區上漲了 2%。這是兩年來首次出現成長。所以，我很想多了解一下是什麼推動了歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）的成長復甦，以及您對該地區持續成長的信心程度？

Thanks for the question, Kyle. Yes, so just maybe the first thing about EMEA is it's been down so long that the comps continue to get easier. So I do think that there's an element of just reaching the bottom. So that's -- that would be part of it. We do have a strong European presence, excuse in some of our Industrial Motion businesses and we pointed to those as having good quarters as well.

謝謝你的提問，凱爾。是的，所以關於 EMEA 的第一件事可能是，它已經停滯了太久，所以比賽變得越來越容易。所以我認為其中確實存在著一種觸底反彈的因素。所以，這——這應該是其中的一部分。我們在歐洲確實擁有強大的影響力，尤其是在我們的一些工業運動業務領域，我們也指出這些業務的季度業績也相當不錯。

And then -- it's really three markets, if I can highlight those that drove that growth. Off-highway was up, rail where we're winning, particularly in new platforms outside of freight rail, which has been our typical stronghold. We're winning in new applications there. And then heavy industries would be the third market. So really a combination of finally maybe reaching the bottom a little earlier to call again but being down for so long and then strengthen some of these markets and new business wins.

然後——如果要重點介紹推動成長的三個市場的話——那就是真正的三個市場。非公路運輸業務有所成長，鐵路運輸業務也取得了勝利，尤其是在貨運鐵路以外的新平台上，而貨運鐵路一直是我們的優勢領域。我們在新應用領域取得了領先。那麼重工業將是第三個市場。所以，實際上是多種因素共同作用的結果，一方面是可能比預期更早觸底反彈，但此前下跌了很長時間，另一方面是某些市場走強以及新業務的贏得。

Got it. And then on margins, just how should we maybe be thinking about the fourth quarter exit rate on margins? And it sounds like there could be some good momentum into 2026 with pricing and then maybe you see some of these auto OE actions start to come through in the first quarter of '26. I know you're not wanting to give 2026 guidance. But I mean you do normally see a step-up in margins from the fourth quarter to the first quarter into the next year. Fair to assume that we would maybe see a bigger sequential step-up in margins into the first quarter of next year?

知道了。那麼，關於利潤率，我們該如何看待第四季利潤率的退出率呢？聽起來，到 2026 年，價格方面可能會有一些良好的勢頭，然後你可能會看到一些汽車原始設備製造商的舉措在 2026 年第一季開始顯現。我知道你不想給 2026 年的預測。但我的意思是，通常情況下，從第四季度到第二年第一季度，利潤率都會有所提高。我們有理由假設，明年第一季利潤率可能會出現更大幅度的環比成長？

Yes. Well, again, great question and good point. And I want to highlight, first of all, that fourth quarter for us is typically our seasonally low quarter, and we do see a significant step-up from fourth quarter to first quarter. So you can expect that to happen. With that volume uplift, there's generally margin uplift and then the self-help we've done this year between pricing actions which, again, I mentioned earlier, we're exiting the year at a higher run rate than the full year.

是的。嗯，又是一個很好的問題，也很有道理。首先我想強調的是，第四季通常是我們的季節性淡季，而且我們確實看到第四季到第一季之間出現了顯著的成長。所以這種情況發生是可以預期的。隨著銷售量的提升，利潤率通常也會提升，再加上我們今年在價格調整措施之間採取的自助措施（正如我之前提到的），我們今年的運行速度比全年都要快。

So you'd expect that to be some uplift in the first half and then our cost savings tactics, which we've talked about on prior calls and said would be second half weighted, that would also be a help to the first quarter margins as well. So as you said, too early to comment. I'm really not going to get into numbers at this point, but I think it's safe to assume that a significant step-up in both top and bottom line going from fourth to first quarter.

因此，預計上半年會有一些提振，而我們在先前的電話會議中談到的成本節約策略（我們說過這些策略主要集中在下半年），也將有助於提高第一季的利潤率。正如你所說，現在評論還為時過早。我現在真的不想談具體數字，但我認為可以肯定的是，從第四季度到第一季度，營收和利潤都會有顯著增長。

Ethan Coyle, JPMorgan.

Ethan Coyle，摩根大通。

This is Ethan on for [Como]. On pricing, how successful have you been through passing pricing to offset tariffs? And then on the increase in tariffs, do you expect further pricing in Q4 or maybe Q1 in 2026.

這是伊桑。[科莫]在定價方面，您透過價格調整來抵銷關稅的成功程度如何？那麼，關於關稅上漲，您預計第四季還是 2026 年第一季價格會進一步上漲？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So we've talked about pricing this year, and I've said it a couple of times, we're looking at pricing above 1.5% for the full year. So I'd say we've been largely successful passing through pricing. Just a reminder about how our pricing works. We have good pricing in the industrial distribution channel where we can get through pricing and, call it, with 60 days notice, a little bit longer in our OEM businesses depending on where they sit, that can be a couple of months to a couple of quarter lag.

是的。謝謝你的提問。今年我們已經討論過定價問題，我也說過好幾次了，我們預計全年的定價將高於 1.5%。所以我覺得我們基本上成功地將價格轉嫁給了消費者。再次提醒一下我們的定價方式。我們在工業分銷管道擁有良好的定價優勢，我們可以提前 60 天完成定價，而對於我們的 OEM 業務來說，根據他們的業務情況，時間可能會稍長一些，可能會有幾個月到幾個季度的滯後。

So I would expect that we will continue to push pricing and then too early to comment on what additional pricing we will do next year, but now that we're ending the year with positive pricing momentum and are committed to recapturing the margins on that tariff impact next year through all of our mitigation tactics, including pricing.

因此，我預計我們將繼續推進價格上漲，現在評論明年我們將採取哪些額外的價格措施還為時過早，但鑑於我們以積極的價格勢頭結束了今年，並且致力於通過包括價格在內的所有緩解策略，在明年重新奪回關稅影響帶來的利潤。

And then on Industrial Motion with organic declines in this quarter and then difficult comps in Q4. Do you see that inflecting possibly any time in the first half of 2026?

然後是 Industrial Motion，本季有機成長下滑，第四季年比數據也比較困難。你認為這種情況可能會在 2026 年上半年出現轉折嗎？

Yes. Again, really early to be commenting on 2026. The only thing I reiterate is that fourth quarter to first quarter is a significant step up. So you can't expect Industrial Motion to step up from the fourth to first quarter. But again, really early to be coming on anything specific for '26.

是的。現在評論2026年還為時過早。我唯一要重申的是，第四季到第一季是一個顯著的進步。所以你不能指望工業運動公司從第四季到第一季業績會有顯著提升。但話說回來，現在談論 2026 年的具體情況還為時過早。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Great. Just on the margin driver -- one of the margin drivers we've talked about for '26, specifically on the cost saves and all that the footprint realignments that have been made over the last year plus. Can you maybe help us quantify that? I think that from memory, the number coming into this year was like circa $75 million or $80 million. Is there a way to kind of help us as to and frame that as to what that could mean in '26?

偉大的。就利潤驅動因素而言——我們討論過的 2026 年利潤驅動因素之一，特別是過去一年多來節省的成本以及所有佈局調整。您能否幫我們量化一下？我記得，今年年初的數字大概是 7,500 萬美元或 8,000 萬美元。有沒有辦法幫助我們理解並解釋一下這在 2026 年可能意味著什麼？

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question, Tim. Yes, you're right, referencing back to the $75 million of savings. We did announce that and I would just reiterate, we're on track to deliver that $75 million of savings. Maybe just one thing to point out on that, probably a little more a little ahead of plan in Engineered Bearings will behind plan and Industrial Motion. That's part of the margin story in Industrial Motion.

當然可以。謝謝你的提問，提姆。是的，你說得對，指的是節省的 7500 萬美元。我們已經宣布過，我再次重申，我們正按計劃實現節省 7500 萬美元的目標。關於這一點，或許需要指出一點，工程軸承的進度可能會比計劃略微提前一些，而工業運動的進度則會落後於計劃。這是工業運動利潤率故事的一部分。

But the way to think about that, I think I said it would be roughly -- it would be second half weighted, call it, 60-40 second half, first half. So if you do the math on that 60-40, $75 million, you should get to somewhere around $15 million of incremental cost saves in the first half of next year.

但要考慮這一點，我想我說過，大致來說——後半部權重更大，姑且稱之為後半部 60%，前半部 40%。所以，如果你以 60-40 的比例計算，也就是 7500 萬美元，那麼明年上半年你應該可以節省大約 1500 萬美元的成本。

Got it. Okay. And again, I get it, we're limited as to what we want to talk about for '26, but just thinking about the quarter one beyond where we are today and that as you -- normally, I think that you see about a, call it, 10-ish percent organic step-up 4Q to 1Q. But just based on what you're hearing from the channel and customers. I mean do you think the pieces are in place for that kind of normal sequential step-up as we sit here today in the first quarter?

知道了。好的。我明白，對於 2026 年，我們能談論的內容有限，但想想我們今天所處的位置，以及之後的第一季度，通常情況下，我認為你會看到第四季度到第一季度大約有 10% 左右的有機增長。但這只是根據你從管道和客戶那裡聽到的回饋。我的意思是，你認為在我們今天身處第一季之際，這種正常的循序漸進的成長是否已經具備了條件？

Yes. Again, I appreciate the acknowledging that we're not going to talk much about next year. But I don't think there's any reason to believe differently than a typical step up from fourth quarter to first quarter. Again, we'll have a lot more information next time, but there's nothing in what we're seeing in current order patterns or otherwise that would indicate we'd expect anything other than a typical seasonal step up.

是的。再次感謝你們承認我們不會過多談論明年的事情。但我認為沒有理由不相信這是從第四季到第一季的典型成長。下次我們會掌握更多信息，但從目前的訂單模式或其他方面來看，沒有任何跡象表明我們預期會出現除典型的季節性增長之外的任何其他情況。

There are no remaining questions at this time. Sir, do you have any final comments or remarks?

目前沒有其他問題了。先生，您還有什麼最後要補充或評論嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Emily, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me. Thank you, and this concludes our call.

是的。謝謝艾米莉，也謝謝大家今天能來參加我們的節目。如果您在今天的通話後還有任何疑問，請與我聯絡。謝謝，我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for participating in Timken's third quarter earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加鐵姆肯公司第三季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。