Timken Co (TKR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Timken's First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早上好。我叫艾米麗，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候，歡迎大家參加鐵姆肯公司第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

Mr. Frohnapple, you may begin your conference.

Frohnapple 先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thanks, Emily, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. This is Neil Frohnapple, Director of Investor Relations for The Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today.

謝謝艾米麗，歡迎大家參加我們 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。我是鐵姆肯公司投資者關係總監 Neil Frohnapple。感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin our remarks for this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation materials on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

在我們開始今天上午的發言之前，我想指出，我們已經在公司網站上發布了演示材料，我們將在今天審查季度業績時參考這些材料。您還可以通過收益電話網絡廣播鏈接上的下載功能訪問此材料。

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Rich Kyle; and Phil Fracassa, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Rich and Phil before we open up the call for your questions. (Operator Instructions)

今天和我在一起的有鐵姆肯公司總裁兼首席執行官 Rich Kyle；和我們的首席財務官 Phil Fracassa。今天早上，在我們開始徵求您的問題之前，我們將聽取 Rich 和 Phil 的開場評論。 （操作員說明）

During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the Timken.com website. We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials. Today's call is copyrighted by The Timken Company, and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call.

在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到與我們未來財務業績、計劃和業務運營相關的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中對此進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 Timken.com 網站上獲取。我們在新聞稿和演示材料中包含了非 GAAP 財務信息與其 GAAP 等效信息之間的調節。今天的通話版權歸鐵姆肯公司所有，未經明確書面同意，我們禁止使用、錄音或傳輸通話的任何部分。

With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in The Timken Company, and I will now turn the call over to Rich.

至此，我要感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的關注，我現在將把電話轉給 Rich。

Thanks, Neil. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call.

謝謝，尼爾。早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。

Timken delivered an excellent first quarter, which puts us on track for another record year of performance. We maintained our strong momentum and achieved record revenue and earnings per share in the quarter while expanding our operating margins. Organic revenue was up 11% in the quarter. This is a slight acceleration from the fourth quarter rate of 10%, and it is our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth. While demand strength remained broad-based, drivers of the organic growth included price realization, strong growth in renewable energy and strong sales in China and India. In total, revenue was up over 12%, with the benefit of acquisitions more than offsetting the impact from divestitures and currency.

鐵姆肯公司在第一季度取得了出色的成績，這使我們有望再創佳績。我們保持了強勁勢頭，在本季度實現了創紀錄的收入和每股收益，同時擴大了營業利潤率。本季度有機收入增長了 11%。這比第四季度 10% 的增長率略有加快，這是我們連續第八個季度實現兩位數的有機增長。雖然需求強勁的基礎依然廣泛，但有機增長的推動因素包括價格實現、可再生能源的強勁增長以及中國和印度的強勁銷售。總的來說，收入增長了 12% 以上，收購的好處遠遠抵消了資產剝離和匯率的影響。

EBITDA margins of 21% were up 100 basis points from last year. Margin improvement was driven by the benefits of price/mix volume, improved manufacturing efficiencies and lower logistics cost, which more than offset the headwinds of inflation, currency and SG&A. While some costs have declined from peak levels and we are operating more efficiently as supply chain challenges have eased, we remain in an inflationary environment with cost up over last year. But as we've demonstrated over the last several years, we can operate effectively and advance the company in either a low or a high inflationary environment and through a wide variety of macroeconomic conditions.

EBITDA 利潤率為 21%，比去年提高了 100 個基點。利潤率的提高是由價格/混合量、製造效率提高和物流成本降低帶來的好處推動的，這大大抵消了通貨膨脹、貨幣和 SG&A 的不利因素。雖然一些成本已從峰值水平下降，並且隨著供應鏈挑戰的緩解，我們的運營效率更高，但我們仍處於通貨膨脹環境中，成本比去年更高。但正如我們在過去幾年所證明的那樣，我們可以在低通脹或高通脹環境以及各種宏觀經濟條件下有效運營並推動公司發展。

Earnings per share of $2.09 was up 22% from last year and was a new record for Timken. In addition to the benefit of growth and margin expansion, both share buyback and acquisitions contributed to the record level of earnings. Free cash flow in the quarter was $72 million better than last year, primarily as a result of greater EBITDA and improved working capital management. The working capital improvements are a result of both supply chain stabilizing as well as our improved execution.

每股收益 2.09 美元，比去年增長 22%，創造了鐵姆肯公司的新紀錄。除了增長和利潤率擴張的好處外，股票回購和收購都為創紀錄的收益水平做出了貢獻。本季度的自由現金流比去年同期增加 7200 萬美元，這主要是由於 EBITDA 增加和營運資金管理得到改善。營運資金的改善是供應鏈穩定以及我們改進執行力的結果。

We continue to invest in expanding and improving our manufacturing footprint and capabilities. The benefits of these actions were evident in the first quarter and will ramp up through the year. We completed the previously-announced closure of our Indianapolis Industrial Motion manufacturing facility in the quarter, and we announced the end of year quarter of an Engineered Bearings facility in South Carolina. Our Mexico bearings facility continues to ramp up each quarter and will contribute positively to results this year, and our renewable energy investments are continuing to come online to support our continued growth in this sector.

我們繼續投資擴大和改善我們的製造足跡和能力。這些行動的好處在第一季度就很明顯，並將在全年逐漸增加。我們在本季度完成了先前宣布的印第安納波利斯 Industrial Motion 製造工廠的關閉，並宣佈在年底季度關閉南卡羅來納州的工程軸承工廠。我們的墨西哥軸承工廠每個季度都在繼續增加，並將為今年的業績做出積極貢獻，我們的可再生能源投資將繼續上線，以支持我們在該領域的持續增長。

Additionally, in the quarter, we paid our 403rd consecutive quarterly dividend, closed on the acquisition of American Roller Bearing and purchased just under 1% of the outstanding shares. We also continue to be recognized for our outstanding corporate citizenship and innovative products and culture. In the quarter, Timken was named one of America's Most Innovative Companies by Fortune, one of America's Best Large Employers by Forbes and one of the world's Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere. Our Timken team is committed to advancing our corporate social responsibility programming as we give back to our communities and drive sustainability in our products and global operations and across the industries we serve.

此外，在本季度，我們連續支付了第 403 個季度股息，完成了對 American Roller Bearing 的收購，併購買了略低於 1% 的已發行股票。我們還繼續以出色的企業公民身份以及創新的產品和文化而獲得認可。在本季度，鐵姆肯公司被《財富》評為美國最具創新力的公司之一，被《福布斯》評為美國最佳大型雇主之一，並被 Ethisphere 評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一。我們的鐵姆肯公司團隊致力於推進我們的企業社會責任計劃，因為我們回饋社區並推動我們的產品和全球運營以及我們所服務的各個行業的可持續發展。

And finally, we completed the previously-communicated resegmentation of the company to Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion, reflecting Timken's advancement as a global diversified industrial leader. Slide 7 in the IR deck breaks down the 2022 market mix for each of the 2 segments and highlights how far the company has evolved its market mix over the last decade with automation, renewable energy and industrial distribution being the largest end markets for the 2 segments. It was an excellent quarter and 2023 is on track to be another excellent year.

最後，我們完成了先前傳達的將公司重新劃分為工程軸承和工業運動，反映了鐵姆肯公司作為全球多元化工業領導者的進步。 IR 幻燈片中的幻燈片 7 細分了 2022 年這兩個細分市場的市場組合，並強調了該公司在過去十年中在多大程度上發展了其市場組合，其中自動化、可再生能源和工業分銷是這兩個細分市場最大的終端市場.這是一個出色的季度，2023 年有望成為又一個出色的一年。

Turning to the outlook. We are increasing our outlook for the full year for revenue, margin, earnings per share and free cash flow. For revenue, we've increased the revenue outlook from 6% to 9.5% at the midpoint of the guide. Market demand, outgrowth, price and our most recent acquisition of Nadella are all contributing. While growth across markets is moderating, backlog and demand are strong, as evidenced by the first quarter's 11% organic growth.

轉向前景。我們正在上調全年收入、利潤率、每股收益和自由現金流的預期。對於收入，我們已將收入預期從指南中點的 6% 提高到 9.5%。市場需求、增長、價格和我們最近對納德拉的收購都在做出貢獻。雖然整個市場的增長正在放緩，但積壓和需求強勁，第一季度 11% 的有機增長就是明證。

As you see on Slide 8, we are forecasting all end markets to be flat to positive for the full year. There are no significant areas of weakness across our portfolio and demand in total is strong. We have factored into our outlook continued channel inventory reduction from supply chain normalization through the course of the year. Additionally, we still have limited visibility into the second half of the year and we are, therefore, maintaining a relatively cautious outlook for the second half due to macroeconomic concerns that exist.

正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣，我們預測全年所有終端市場都將持平到積極。我們的產品組合沒有明顯的弱點，總體需求強勁。我們已將全年供應鏈正常化帶來的持續渠道庫存減少納入我們的展望。此外，我們對下半年的能見度仍然有限，因此，由於存在宏觀經濟擔憂，我們對下半年的前景保持相對謹慎的態度。

The midpoint of the guide implies flattish organic revenue sequentials for the second quarter and then slightly greater than normal seasonal declines for the third and fourth quarters. If the revenue expectation proves to be too low, we'll be in excellent position to capitalize on the situation. We've also modestly increased our expectation for price for the full year primarily due to the persistence of inflation. The majority of the price is in the first quarter actuals, and we do not expect much further sequential price improvement as we move through 2023.

該指南的中點意味著第二季度有機收入環比持平，然後第三和第四季度略高於正常的季節性下降。如果收入預期被證明太低，我們將處於有利地位來利用這種情況。我們還適度提高了對全年價格的預期，這主要是由於通貨膨脹的持續存在。大部分價格是第一季度的實際價格，我們預計到 2023 年價格不會有太大的連續改善。

Our outgrowth and market diversification efforts continue to show results. We expect a strong year in Renewables, Marine and Automation in addition to traditional Timken markets, such as Heavy Industries and Rail. We closed on the Nadella acquisition in early April, and that is also now included in the full year outlook. Nadella furthers our market diversification with positions in automation, medical and [material handling]. The midpoint of the revenue outlook is to be up just under 10% and would mark the fifth year out of the last 6 for a new revenue high for Timken.

我們的發展和市場多元化努力繼續取得成果。除了傳統的鐵姆肯公司市場，如重工業和鐵路，我們預計今年可再生能源、船舶和自動化領域將表現強勁。我們在 4 月初完成了對納德拉的收購，現在也包含在全年展望中。納德拉通過在自動化、醫療和 [材料處理] 領域的職位進一步推動我們的市場多元化。收入前景的中點將增長略低於 10%，這將標誌著鐵姆肯公司在過去 6 年中連續第五年創下收入新高。

We are now forecasting a margin improvement for the full year with margins of around 19.5%. Price/mix volume and improved operational performance are all contributing and more than offsetting headwinds from inflation, SG&A and currency.

我們現在預測全年利潤率將提高，約為 19.5%。價格/組合量和改進的運營績效都有助於抵消通貨膨脹、SG&A 和貨幣帶來的不利因素。

Earnings per share of $7.25 at the midpoint would be up 12% from last year and again, would mark 5 of the last 6 years, setting new levels. In addition to the contribution from growth in margin, capital allocation to both M&A and buyback is also contributing to the results.

按中點計算，每股收益為 7.25 美元，比去年增長 12%，這將再次成為過去 6 年中的 5 年，創下新水平。除了利潤率增長的貢獻外，對併購和回購的資本配置也對業績做出了貢獻。

And finally, we're expecting free cash flow conversion of around 100% from improved working capital management and moderating growth in the second half. After accounting for Nadella and CapEx, we forecast to end the year below the midpoint of our leverage range, which puts us in an excellent position to continue to create value through disciplined capital allocation through the remainder of this year and into 2024.

最後，我們預計下半年營運資本管理的改善和增長放緩將帶來 100% 左右的自由現金流轉換。在考慮納德拉和資本支出後，我們預計今年年底將低於我們的槓桿率範圍的中點，這使我們處於有利地位，可以在今年剩餘時間和 2024 年通過有紀律的資本配置繼續創造價值。

In summary, the first quarter was a strong start to what we anticipate will be another excellent year for Timken. We continue to demonstrate the strength of our improved portfolio and our ability to execute at a high level through a wide variety of macroeconomic conditions as we continue to advanced the company as a diversified industrial leader.

總而言之，第一季度是我們預期鐵姆肯公司又一個出色的一年的良好開端。隨著我們繼續推動公司成為多元化的行業領導者，我們繼續展示我們改進後的產品組合的實力以及我們在各種宏觀經濟條件下高水平執行的能力。

I'll now turn it over to Phil to go into more detail on the results and the outlook.

我現在將其轉交給 Phil，以更詳細地介紹結果和前景。

Okay. Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. For the financial review, I'm going to start on Slide 13 of the presentation materials.

好的。謝謝，里奇，大家早上好。對於財務審查，我將從演示材料的幻燈片 13 開始。

Timken followed up its record performance last year with record performance once again in the first quarter, and you can see a summary of the results on this slide. We posted revenue of $1.26 billion in the quarter, up over 12% from last year and an all-time record for the company. We delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21%, up 100 basis points from last year, and we achieved all-time record adjusted earnings per share of $2.09. Note that our adjusted EPS now excludes acquisition amortization expense. And finally, we delivered an adjusted return on invested capital of almost 15% over the past 12 months, well above our cost of capital.

Timken 繼去年創紀錄的業績之後，在第一季度再次創下業績紀錄，您可以在這張幻燈片上看到結果摘要。我們公佈本季度的收入為 12.6 億美元，比去年增長 12% 以上，創下了公司的歷史記錄。我們實現了 21% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，比去年提高了 100 個基點，我們實現了歷史最高紀錄的調整後每股收益 2.09 美元。請注意，我們調整後的每股收益現在不包括收購攤銷費用。最後，我們在過去 12 個月中實現了近 15% 的調整後投資回報率，遠高於我們的資本成本。

Turning to Slide 14. Let's take a closer look at our first quarter sales performance. Organically, sales were up nearly 11% from last year, driven by strong growth in both the Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments. Organic growth continued to benefit from strong gains in both volume and pricing across most sectors and platforms during the quarter. Looking at the rest of the revenue lock, the impact of acquisitions, including GGB net of divestitures, contributed 4 percentage points of growth to the top line, while foreign currency translation was a headwind to revenue as expected.

轉到幻燈片 14。讓我們仔細看看我們第一季度的銷售業績。在工程軸承和工業運動領域強勁增長的推動下，銷售額比去年增長了近 11%。有機增長繼續受益於本季度大多數行業和平台的銷量和定價的強勁增長。從收入鎖定的其餘部分來看，收購的影響，包括 GGB 扣除資產剝離後，為收入增長貢獻了 4 個百分點，而外幣換算則如預期的那樣對收入產生了不利影響。

On the right-hand side of this slide, you can see organic growth by region, which excludes both currency and net acquisition impact. Most regions were up in the quarter versus last year, with Asia Pacific leading the way.

在這張幻燈片的右側，您可以看到按地區劃分的有機增長，其中不包括貨幣和淨收購影響。與去年同期相比，大多數地區在本季度都有所增長，其中亞太地區處於領先地位。

Let me touch briefly on a few regions. We were up 23% in Asia Pacific, driven by broad-based growth across the region, with Renewable Energy, Rail and Distribution posting the strongest sector gains. In North America, our largest region, we were up 9%, with both the Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments posting solid growth versus last year. Most sectors were also up in the quarter, led by Distribution and Rail. And in EMEA, we were up 6%, with our Industrial Motion segment leading the way driven by double-digit growth in the automatic lubrication systems and linear motion platforms. With respect to performance by sector, Industrial Distribution posted the strongest gain in the quarter.

讓我簡要談談幾個地區。在亞太地區廣泛增長的推動下，我們在亞太地區上漲了 23%，其中可再生能源、鐵路和分銷板塊漲幅最大。在我們最大的地區北美，我們增長了 9%，與去年相比，工程軸承和工業運動部門都實現了穩健增長。大多數行業在本季度也有所上漲，其中分銷和鐵路領漲。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們增長了 6%，我們的工業運動部門在自動潤滑系統和線性運動平台的兩位數增長的推動下處於領先地位。就行業表現而言，工業分銷在本季度取得了最強勁的增長。

Turning to Slide 15. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $266 million or 21% of sales compared to $225 million or 20% of sales last year. Looking at the change in adjusted EBITDA dollars, we benefited from favorable price/mix, higher volume and lower material and logistics costs. These positives more than offset the impact of unfavorable manufacturing performance, higher SG&A other costs and a sizable headwind from currency. Overall, we delivered an incremental margin of just under 30%, driven by our positive price/cost performance and solid execution on the higher sales. With organic incremental margins, that is excluding currency and acquisitions, coming in closer to 40%.

轉到幻燈片 15。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.66 億美元，佔銷售額的 21%，而去年為 2.25 億美元，佔銷售額的 20%。看看調整後的 EBITDA 美元的變化，我們受益於優惠的價格/組合、更高的銷量以及更低的材料和物流成本。這些積極因素足以抵消不利的製造業績、較高的 SG&A 其他成本以及貨幣帶來的巨大逆風的影響。總體而言，我們實現了略低於 30% 的增量利潤率，這得益於我們積極的性價比和對更高銷售額的穩健執行。有機增量利潤率（不包括貨幣和收購）接近 40%。

Let me comment a little further on a few of the key profitability drivers in the quarter. With respect to price/mix, pricing was meaningfully higher in both Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion compared to last year, and both segments saw pricing step up from the fourth quarter. Mix was also positive, driven by strong growth again in attractive sectors like Industrial Distribution.

讓我進一步評論本季度的幾個關鍵盈利驅動因素。在價格/組合方面，工程軸承和 Industrial Motion 的定價均明顯高於去年，並且這兩個細分市場的定價都從第四季度開始上漲。在工業分銷等有吸引力的行業再次強勁增長的推動下，組合也很積極。

Moving to Material & Logistics. The year-over-year change in the quarter was a net positive as lower logistics and transportation costs more than offset slightly higher material costs. I'd also note that material and logistics costs were down sequentially from the fourth quarter. On the manufacturing line, we were negatively impacted by continued inflation in labor and other input costs like energy as well as lower production volume as we built a sizable amount of inventory in the first quarter of last year. On the positive side, we delivered solid operational execution across the enterprise. In addition to the footprint actions Rich talked about, we're seeing benefits from improved supply chain dynamics and other efficiency gains in our plans. And finally, on the SG&A other line, costs were up in the first quarter as we expected, driven by higher compensation expense and other spending to support the increased sales and business activity levels.

轉向材料與物流。本季度的同比變化是一個淨積極因素，因為較低的物流和運輸成本抵消了略高的材料成本。我還注意到材料和物流成本從第四季度開始連續下降。在生產線上，我們受到勞動力和能源等其他投入成本持續上漲以及產量下降的負面影響，因為我們在去年第一季度建立了大量庫存。從積極的方面來看，我們在整個企業內提供了可靠的運營執行。除了 Rich 談到的足跡行動之外，我們還看到了改善供應鏈動態和我們計劃中其他效率提升的好處。最後，在 SG&A 其他方面，第一季度的成本如我們預期的那樣上升，這是受更高的補償費用和其他支出的推動，以支持銷售和業務活動水平的增長。

On Slide 16, you can see that we posted net income of $122 million or $1.67 per diluted share for the first quarter on a GAAP basis. This includes $0.42 of net expense from special items driven primarily by a goodwill impairment charge related to the resegmentation. On an adjusted basis, we earned $2.09 per share, up 22% from last year and a new record for any quarter. You'll note that we benefited from a lower share count in the first quarter versus last year, reflecting the significant amount of share buybacks we've completed in the past 12 months. Interest expense was higher as expected, driven primarily by higher debt levels resulting from our capital allocation initiatives. And finally, our adjusted tax rate of 25.5% was flat versus last year and in line with our expectations.

在幻燈片 16 上，您可以看到我們公佈的第一季度淨收入為 1.22 億美元，即根據 GAAP 計算的每股攤薄收益為 1.67 美元。這包括主要由與重新細分相關的商譽減值費用驅動的特殊項目的 0.42 美元淨費用。在調整後的基礎上，我們每股盈利 2.09 美元，比去年增長 22%，創下任何季度的新紀錄。您會注意到，與去年相比，我們從第一季度的股票數量減少中受益，這反映了我們在過去 12 個月中完成的大量股票回購。利息支出高於預期，這主要是由於我們的資本配置計劃導致債務水平上升。最後，我們調整後的稅率為 25.5%，與去年持平，符合我們的預期。

Now let's move to our business segment results, reflecting our new reporting structure, starting with Engineered Bearings on Slide 17. For the first quarter, Engineered Bearing sales were $901 million, up 16.6% from last year. Organically, sales were up nearly 13%, driven by growth across most sectors with Renewable Energy, Distribution, Rail and Heavy Industries posting the strongest gains. Pricing was positive, and the impact of acquisitions net of divestitures added nearly 7 percentage points of growth to the top line, while currency translation reduced growth by about 3% in the quarter.

現在讓我們來看看我們的業務部門業績，反映我們新的報告結構，從幻燈片 17 上的工程軸承開始。第一季度，工程軸承銷售額為 9.01 億美元，比去年增長 16.6%。銷售額有機增長近 13%，主要受可再生能源、分銷、鐵路和重工業等大多數行業增長的推動。定價是積極的，扣除資產剝離後的收購影響使收入增長近 7 個百分點，而貨幣換算使本季度的增長減少了約 3%。

Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $204 million or 22.6% of sales compared to $174 million or 22.5% of sales last year, with margins up slightly. Engineered Bearings segment margins reflect favorable price/mix, the impact of higher sales volumes and lower material and logistics costs, offset partially by higher manufacturing and SG&A costs and a sizable headwind from currency. Excluding the impact of currency and acquisitions, organic incremental margins in Engineered Bearings were above 30%.

第一季度工程軸承調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.04 億美元，佔銷售額的 22.6%，而去年為 1.74 億美元，佔銷售額的 22.5%，利潤率略有上升。工程軸承部門的利潤率反映了有利的價格/組合、更高的銷量和更低的材料和物流成本的影響，部分被更高的製造和 SG&A 成本以及來自貨幣的巨大逆風所抵消。排除貨幣和收購的影響，工程軸承的有機增量利潤率超過 30%。

Now let's turn to Industrial Motion on Slide 18. For the first quarter, Industrial Motion segment sales were $362 million, up 2.8% from last year. Organically, sales increased 7% as all platforms were up in the quarter, with automatic lubrication systems posting the largest revenue gain and pricing was positive. The impact of divestitures net of acquisitions was a headwind in the quarter of around 2%, as was foreign currency translation.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 18 上的 Industrial Motion。第一季度，Industrial Motion 部門的銷售額為 3.62 億美元，比去年增長 2.8%。由於本季度所有平台都在增長，銷售額有機增長了 7%，其中自動潤滑系統的收入增長最大，定價也很積極。資產剝離（扣除收購）的影響在本季度受到不利影響，約為 2%，外幣換算也是如此。

Industrial Motion adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $77 million or 21.2% of sales compared to $63 million or 18% of sales last year. A sizable increase in Industrial Motion segment margins was driven by the benefit of positive price/cost and improved operational execution, which more than offset the impact of higher SG&A and manufacturing costs.

Industrial Motion 第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 7700 萬美元，佔銷售額的 21.2%，而去年為 6300 萬美元，佔銷售額的 18%。 Industrial Motion 部門利潤率的大幅增長得益於積極的價格/成本和改進的運營執行，這大大抵消了較高的 SG&A 和製造成本的影響。

Turning to Slide 19, you can see that we generated operating cash flow of $79 million in the quarter. And after CapEx, free cash flow was $37 million, a significant improvement compared to last year driven mainly by higher earnings and better working capital performance. From a capital allocation standpoint, we returned $78 million of cash to shareholders during the first quarter through dividends and the repurchase of 670,000 shares. We also completed the ARB acquisition at the end of January.

轉到幻燈片 19，您可以看到我們在本季度產生了 7900 萬美元的運營現金流。在資本支出之後，自由現金流為 3700 萬美元，與去年相比有了顯著改善，這主要是由於更高的收益和更好的營運資本績效。從資本配置的角度來看，我們在第一季度通過派息和回購 670,000 股股票向股東返還了 7800 萬美元現金。我們還在 1 月底完成了對 ARB 的收購。

Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.9x, unchanged from year-end and well within our targeted range. With our strong balance sheet and increased cash flow outlook, we remain in a great position to grow the earnings power of the company moving forward, both organically and through M&A, all while continuing to return cash to shareholders. In early April, we closed on the Nadella acquisition and the integration with our Rollon business is well underway.

從資產負債表來看，我們在本季度末的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.9 倍，與年底持平，並且完全在我們的目標範圍內。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表和增加的現金流前景，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以通過有機和併購來增加公司向前發展的盈利能力，同時繼續向股東返還現金。 4 月初，我們完成了對 Nadella 的收購，與我們的 Rollon 業務的整合也在順利進行。

Now let's turn to the outlook, with a summary on Slide 20. As Rich highlighted, we're raising our 2023 outlook for both the top and bottom lines as well as our outlook for free cash flow. Starting on the sales outlook, we're now planning for sales to be up 8% to 11% in total or 9.5% at the midpoint versus 2022. Our prior guide was 6% at the midpoint. The increase reflects the impact of the Nadella acquisition as well as a slightly higher organic growth outlook. Organically, we now expect revenue will be up 4% at the midpoint versus 3% in our prior guide. Note that our volume assumptions continue to reflect some prudent cautiousness around the second half, given all the market uncertainty still out there. We expect acquisitions net of divestitures to contribute around 5.5% to revenue for the full year, up from 3.5% in our prior guide. This includes roughly 9 months of Nadella results. And finally, we now expect currency translation to be neutral to the top line for the full year based on current spot rates.

現在讓我們轉向展望，並在幻燈片 20 上進行總結。正如 Rich 強調的那樣，我們提高了 2023 年的最高和最低利潤展望以及自由現金流的展望。從銷售前景開始，我們現在計劃與 2022 年相比，銷售額總體增長 8% 至 11%，或中點增長 9.5%。我們之前的指導是中點 6%。這一增長反映了納德拉收購的影響以及略高的有機增長前景。有機地，我們現在預計收入將在中點增長 4%，而我們之前的指南為 3%。請注意，鑑於所有市場不確定性仍然存在，我們的交易量假設繼續反映了下半年的一些審慎謹慎態度。我們預計扣除資產剝離後的收購對全年收入的貢獻約為 5.5%，高於我們之前指南中的 3.5%。這包括大約 9 個月的納德拉結果。最後，我們現在預計，根據當前的即期匯率，貨幣換算對全年收入將保持中性。

On the bottom line, we're raising our 2023 outlook and now expect record adjusted earnings per share in the range of $7 to $7.50, which represents around 12% growth at the midpoint versus 2022. The midpoint of our earnings outlook implies that our 2023 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will now be about 19.5%, which is 50 basis points up from both our prior guide and last year. It would also mark a new high for the company, and note that we expect both the Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments to expand margins for the full year.

最重要的是，我們上調了 2023 年的前景，現在預計調整後的每股收益將達到創紀錄的 7 美元至 7.50 美元，與 2022 年相比增長約 12%。我們的收益前景中點意味著我們的 2023 年綜合調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率現在約為 19.5%，比我們之前的指南和去年高出 50 個基點。這也將標誌著公司的新高，並註意到我們預計工程軸承和工業運動部門都將擴大全年的利潤率。

Our margin assumption reflects favorable price/cost, the impact of higher organic sales volumes and improved operational execution, which would more than offset higher manufacturing and SG&A costs, as well as the impact of lower production volume in terms of less inventory build. Note that our margin assumption also reflects a sizable bottom line headwind from currency off the favorable impact we saw last year.

我們的利潤率假設反映了有利的價格/成本、更高的有機銷量和改進的運營執行的影響，這將抵消更高的製造和 SG&A 成本，以及產量減少導致庫存減少的影響。請注意，我們的利潤率假設也反映了貨幣對我們去年看到的有利影響造成的巨大底線逆風。

Moving to free cash flow, we now expect to generate over $450 million for the full year 2023 or around 100% conversion on our reported net income. This would be over $160 million above last year, reflecting the impact of higher earnings and improved working capital performance, offset partially by higher CapEx spending. We continue to estimate CapEx at around 4% of sales. And finally, we now anticipate net interest expense of roughly $95 million for the full year, which reflects higher debt associated with the Nadella acquisition, and we expect our adjusted tax rate to remain around 25.5%.

轉向自由現金流，我們現在預計 2023 年全年將產生超過 4.5 億美元的收入，即我們報告的淨收入的 100% 左右的轉化率。這將比去年多出 1.6 億美元，反映出更高的收益和改善的營運資本績效的影響，部分被更高的資本支出支出所抵消。我們繼續估計資本支出佔銷售額的 4% 左右。最後，我們現在預計全年淨利息支出約為 9500 萬美元，這反映出與收購納德拉相關的債務增加，我們預計調整後的稅率將保持在 25.5% 左右。

So to summarize, the company delivered record results to start the year, and we're raising our 2023 outlook across the board. Our team is working hard to advance Timken as a global industrial leader, and we're confident in our ability to deliver higher levels of performance through dynamic economic environments.

總而言之，公司年初取得了創紀錄的業績，我們全面上調了 2023 年的展望。我們的團隊正在努力推動鐵姆肯公司成為全球工業領導者，我們相信我們有能力在充滿活力的經濟環境中提供更高水平的績效。

This concludes our formal remarks, and we'll now open the line for questions. Operator?

我們的正式發言到此結束，我們現在開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. I think both of you guys characterize your revenue forecast as sort of potentially conservative, which makes sense given sort of all the uncertainties out there. But I was actually sort of surprised that you didn't raise your margin guidance a little bit more given the performance of the first quarter. So I guess, I just want to see whether you think the margin performance is also -- could be characterized as conservative? And more directly, what would be the kind of headwinds, Phil, that would limit the incrementals going forward relative to what we saw in the first quarter?

偉大的。我認為你們兩個都將你們的收入預測描述為一種潛在的保守，考慮到所有的不確定性，這是有道理的。但實際上，考慮到第一季度的表現，您沒有將利潤率指引提高一點，這讓我感到有些驚訝。所以我想，我只想看看你是否認為利潤率表現也——可以被描述為保守？更直接地說，菲爾，相對於我們在第一季度看到的情況，什麼樣的逆風會限制未來的增量？

Yes. It's a great question, Steve.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，史蒂夫。

I think as we look at the outlook, we took the margins up to 19.5% at the midpoint, which does reflect improved incrementals in what we would have talked about a quarter ago. Now, that would imply, call it, a mid-20s all-in incremental margin for the year.

我認為，在我們審視前景時，我們將中點的利潤率提高到 19.5%，這確實反映了我們在一個季度前討論的增量有所改善。現在，這意味著，稱之為今年 20 多歲的全部增量利潤率。

The biggest thing that's in there that's a little bit unusual would be the currency situation. We had a large benefit last year that's not repeating, so it is affecting the year-on-year comps for currency. And we -- I think we talked about it last year. But I mean if we strip that out, strip out the acquisitions, we're actually -- our guidance would imply organic incrementals of north of 40%, so I do think we're generating the prep positive price cost. We're seeing the improved execution. I think there is a opportunities to continue to improve there, but we do feel like we have a fair amount of improvement baked in.

那裡最大的有點不尋常的是貨幣情況。去年我們有一個很大的好處，沒有重複，所以它影響了貨幣的同比比較。我們——我想我們去年談過這個問題。但我的意思是，如果我們將其剝離，剝離收購，我們實際上 - 我們的指導將意味著有機增量超過 40%，所以我確實認為我們正在產生準備好的價格成本。我們看到了改進的執行。我認為那裡有繼續改進的機會，但我們確實覺得我們已經有了相當多的改進。

Certainly, if volumes are better, that will give us an opportunity to take advantage of the volume and generate some potentially higher margins. And obviously, the input cost situation will be a -- we'll have the ability to weigh on it as well. But I do feel like we have a good -- pretty solid improvement baked in, especially when you strip out that unusual currency headwind that we've got in the current year.

當然，如果銷量更好，那將使我們有機會利用銷量並產生一些潛在的更高利潤。顯然，投入成本情況將是——我們也有能力對其進行權衡。但我確實覺得我們有一個很好的——相當穩固的改進，尤其是當你剔除我們今年遇到的不尋常的貨幣逆風時。

Yes, I would just add, there is the seasonal element as well that I think last year, Q1 to Q4 was about 300 basis points of margin difference, and we still expect that seasonality impact. So certainly, we expect the first half margins to be higher than the second half.

是的，我只想補充一點，我認為去年也有季節性因素，第一季度到第四季度的利潤率差異約為 300 個基點，我們仍然預計會受到季節性影響。所以當然，我們預計上半年的利潤率會高於下半年。

Understood.

明白了。

And then, Rich, you mentioned that your forecast factors in some destocking at some customers or distributors or something. Has that -- has your view of that changed? Is that more now than it was 3 months ago? Or -- any color there would be great.

然後，Rich，你提到你的預測會影響一些客戶或分銷商或其他東西的去庫存。你對此的看法改變了嗎？現在比 3 個月前多嗎？或者——任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. I think destocking -- maybe normalization of supply chains would be a better term than destocking, and I think we did talk about that in the last quarterly call that we thought that was -- inventory was a bit of a headwind for us as much the fourth quarter and then again in the first quarter. I would use us as the example. We would usually build inventory in the first quarter on up modest revenue and we were up 11% and didn't build much inventory. And that, I think, is an indication of a lot of the inefficiencies that we had in our own inventory from the supply chain challenges over the last couple of years. And I think that is happening up the chain from us in the supply chain as well, and we're seeing that come out.

是的。我認為去庫存——也許供應鏈正常化比去庫存更好，我想我們在上一個季度電話會議上確實談到了這一點——我們認為庫存對我們來說有點不利第四節，然後又是第一節。我會以我們為例。我們通常會在第一季度建立適度收入的庫存，我們增長了 11%，並沒有建立太多庫存。我認為，這表明我們在過去幾年中因供應鏈挑戰而導致庫存效率低下。而且我認為這也發生在我們供應鏈的鏈條上，我們看到了這一點。

So we're not seeing necessarily distributor destocking. We're not seeing a reduction from demand. I would say it's much more of the the supply chains coming in and normal lead times coming back down, particularly logistics lead times are fairly normal. And that alone is a pretty significant amount of inventory out for us.

所以我們不一定看到經銷商去庫存。我們沒有看到需求減少。我會說更多的是供應鏈的進入和正常的交貨時間回落，特別是物流交貨時間相當正常。僅此一項對我們來說就是相當大的庫存量。

Right. Great.

正確的。偉大的。

Our next question comes from Robert Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Wertheimer。

So my question -- my first one is just going to be on M&A. Wonder if you would characterize the overall environment, whether it's changing, as interest rates have risen, whether the number of buyers is diminishing or otherwise changing, whether sellers are more active? Just your general thoughts on the market and then your pipeline within it.

所以我的問題 - 我的第一個問題只是關於併購。想知道您是否會描述整體環境的特徵，它是否正在改變，隨著利率上升，買家數量是否正在減少或發生其他變化，賣家是否更加活躍？只是您對市場的一般想法，然後是您在其中的管道。

I'd say M&A markets remain slow. I think they've been slow for some time. I think it's pretty well publicized out there, the deal activity has been down. Cost of capital, certainly a factor in that, the uncertainty and then maybe potentially buyer-seller value expectation gaps as well.

我會說併購市場仍然緩慢。我認為他們已經緩慢了一段時間。我認為它在那裡得到了很好的宣傳，交易活動已經減少。資本成本，當然是其中的一個因素，不確定性，然後可能還有潛在的買賣雙方價值預期差距。

That being said, it's been -- it was slow over the last year. And during that slow time, we acquired 4 businesses, so because it's slow doesn't mean it can't be done. But when you look at those 4, only 1 of those 4 was a traditional seller process. The other 3 were us pursuing the businesses, which I think is an indication of slow. So I do think the inbound has been and remains slow, but that doesn't mean that we can't get it done.

話雖這麼說，但過去一年一直很緩慢。在那段緩慢的時間裡，我們收購了 4 家企業，所以因為它很慢並不意味著它不能完成。但是當您查看這 4 個時，您會發現這 4 個中只有 1 個是傳統的賣方流程。其他 3 個是我們追求的業務，我認為這是緩慢的跡象。所以我確實認為入站一直很慢，並且仍然很慢，但這並不意味著我們無法完成它。

I'd also say the Industrial Motion and Engineered Bearings reorganization, which is what was behind the resegmentation, was done with the intent to both improve our management of the businesses that we've acquired over the last decade as well as be in position to do more, and I think that is a couple of quarters in. That's been highly effective, and we are in position to do more. I think we have the bandwidth both from a management perspective as well as from a financial capital standpoint to be more active. We're working our pipeline, and again, we've managed to overcome the slowness and we'll have to see as we look forward.

我還要說的是，重組背後的工業運動和工程軸承重組旨在改善我們對過去十年收購的業務的管理，並能夠做更多，我認為這是幾個季度。這是非常有效的，我們有能力做更多。我認為，無論是從管理角度還是從金融資本的角度來看，我們都擁有更加積極主動的帶寬。我們正在努力我們的管道，我們再次設法克服了緩慢，我們必須看到我們期待。

Okay. Perfect. And if I may, just a couple of quick end market ones. Rail, you called out as being strong. Is that just railcar build? Or is there any other dynamic we should be aware of?

好的。完美的。如果可以的話，只有幾個快速的終端市場。雷爾，你說的是強者。那隻是有軌電車的建造嗎？或者還有其他我們應該注意的動態嗎？

And then in general, as we move into project starts, the IRA funding, et cetera, could you talk about the multiyear outlook for renewables? Is it any better than it has been? I know there's ebb and flow of wind and so forth, but just how does your multiyear outlook look there? And I will stop there.

然後總的來說，隨著我們進入項目啟動、IRA 資金等，您能談談可再生能源的多年前景嗎？它比以前好了嗎？我知道有潮起潮落等等，但你的多年前景如何？我會到此為止。

Rail, I would say the answer is yes. It's primarily railcar build. And a reminder that's a global railcar build as we have strong market positions in the OEM space around the world. And it's a market for us that's been down for a few years and didn't hit a new peak as many of our other markets did in the last couple of years, so a little later build on that. But it's also 1 that we have relatively good -- a little longer lead time than some of our other markets. So I think we look really good in that space, at least through the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, with our orders and backlog.

鐵路，我會說答案是肯定的。它主要是軌道車的建造。提醒一下，這是全球軌道車的構建，因為我們在全球 OEM 領域擁有強大的市場地位。對我們來說，這是一個已經下跌了幾年的市場，並沒有像過去幾年我們的許多其他市場那樣達到新的高峰，所以稍後再建立。但它也是 1 我們有相對較好的 - 比我們其他一些市場更長的交貨時間。所以我認為我們在這個領域看起來非常好，至少在第三季度和第四季度，我們的訂單和積壓。

On the renewable energy, I would say for us, that market tends to be more Asian and European. I do believe -- and it was not a huge for us. We are largely (inaudible) we're mostly in the drive system of the turbine and then secondarily in the turbine itself. Those supply chains tend to be in Asia and Europe regardless of where the install is going, so that's where our revenue generally takes place and our manufacturing.

關於可再生能源，我想對我們說，這個市場更傾向於亞洲和歐洲。我確實相信 - 這對我們來說並不是一件大事。我們主要（聽不清）我們主要在渦輪機的驅動系統中，然後是渦輪機本身。這些供應鏈往往位於亞洲和歐洲，無論安裝在哪裡，所以這通常是我們收入和製造的地方。

We continue to be very bullish on the multiyear outlook globally for that market, our ability to win and participate, our ability to grow in it. I mentioned in my comments that we have more investments coming online, making more investments in the space, and we remain very bullish on the 5-plus year outlook, and again, our ability to profitably participate in that. The U.S. part of that with the taxes and infrastructure build would certainly be additive to that. But I think even without that, we're in a pretty good spot.

我們繼續非常看好全球該市場的多年前景、我們贏得和參與的能力以及我們在其中發展的能力。我在評論中提到，我們有更多投資上線，在該領域進行更多投資，我們仍然非常看好 5 年以上的前景，再次，我們有能力參與其中並從中獲利。美國在稅收和基礎設施建設方面的部分肯定會增加。但我認為即使沒有它，我們也處於一個非常好的位置。

Our next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的布萊恩布萊爾。

I was hoping you can offer a little more color on integration efforts across Spinea, GGB, ARB earlier stage. And with Q1 in the books and Nadella now closed, how should we think about net accretion for the year?

我希望你能在早期階段為 Spinea、GGB、ARB 的整合工作提供更多色彩。隨著第一季度的賬簿和納德拉現在關閉，我們應該如何考慮今年的淨增長？

Yes. Let me talk about the integration. I'll let Phil talk about the accretion fees, and I'll maybe go in backwards order.

是的。再說說整合。我會讓 Phil 談談增值費，我可能會按倒序進行。

So Nadella, a little over a month under our ownership, no surprises. There are some parts of that business that overlap pretty significantly with our Rollon business. We are integrating those parts into Rollon, from there is a sales forces, et cetera, there will be some fairly heavy integration in that in the coming months. No surprises with the business, and it comes to us with good day 1 profitability, so there's no burning platform on the integration. And -- but certainly, to capture the synergies long term, we'll be moving forward there.

所以納德拉，在我們的領導下有一個多月的時間，這並不奇怪。該業務的某些部分與我們的 Rollon 業務有很大的重疊。我們正在將這些部分整合到 Rollon 中，從銷售團隊等方面來看，未來幾個月將會有一些相當大的整合。這項業務並不令人意外，而且第一天的盈利能力就很好，所以整合上沒有燃燒的平台。而且 - 但可以肯定的是，為了長期獲得協同效應，我們將在那裡向前邁進。

American Roller Bearing, more of a fixer upper, but a market that we know very well and 1 that has a lot of overlap with the -- our Engineered Bearing business. So very heavy integration there. We've integrated the sales force, and we're really in the process of converting that from a stand-alone private business into more of a product line within our North American bearing infrastructure and operations. See significant margin improvement potential in that business, but again, it came to us at a very modest profitability and will take us some time. But I would expect quarter-to-quarter, we'll see sequential improvement in that as we move that up to the profitability levels that we achieve in similar markets, similar products, similar spaces.

美國滾子軸承，更多的是固定鞋面，但我們非常了解這個市場，並且與我們的工程軸承業務有很多重疊。那裡非常重要的整合。我們已經整合了銷售隊伍，我們確實正在將其從獨立的私營企業轉變為我們北美軸承基礎設施和運營中更多的產品線。看到該業務的顯著利潤率提高潛力，但同樣，它以非常適度的盈利能力來到我們身邊，需要我們一些時間。但我預計每個季度，隨著我們將其提升到我們在類似市場、類似產品、類似空間中達到的盈利水平，我們將看到連續的改善。

GGB, now about 2 quarters of ownership, and I would say kind of between those 2 of a -- more of a synergistic approach to the -- where we're focused as a business and looking more at cross-selling opportunities than integration, but it is integrated into our bearing business. And most of the work there in the first couple of quarters, that was a carve-out from EnPro, and that work in the Transition Services Agreement just expired at the end of April. So we've finished the standup work, and we're now focused more on the outgrowth synergies going forward in the business. It's pretty much exactly what we expected like the product line, like the applications and a lot of good both cost and market synergies for us within the bearings business.

GGB，現在大約有兩個季度的所有權，我想說的是在這兩個之間——更多的是一種協同方法——我們專注於業務，更多地關注交叉銷售機會而不是整合，但它已整合到我們的軸承業務中。前幾個季度的大部分工作都是從 EnPro 分拆出來的，過渡服務協議中的工作剛剛在 4 月底到期。所以我們已經完成了站起來的工作，我們現在更專注於業務未來的協同效應。這幾乎完全符合我們對產品線的預期，例如軸承業務中的應用程序以及我們在成本和市場方面的許多良好協同效應。

And then Spinea, much more of a stand-alone business, which was a step-out product for us. So there's some -- we're really looking more to leverage our North American and Asian sales organizations and really a -- accelerate the globalization of what was really a European -- a small European business. The technology is great. The product position is great. It's going to do really well from a growth standpoint. But it's also -- it's in the capital goods sector. So when you're -- you grow the business there by winning the next evolution of design and the next design, so it's not something that you just turn a switch on, but feel very, very bullish about the long-term potential of that.

然後是 Spinea，它更像是一個獨立的業務，對我們來說是一個跨步產品。所以有一些 - 我們真的希望更多地利用我們的北美和亞洲銷售組織，並且真的 - 加速真正歐洲的全球化 - 一個小型歐洲企業。技術很棒。產品定位很棒。從增長的角度來看，它會做得很好。但它也是 - 它在資本貨物領域。所以當你——你通過贏得設計的下一個演變和下一個設計來發展那裡的業務，所以這不是你只是打開開關的東西，而是對它的長期潛力感到非常、非常樂觀.

And I'll flip to [Neil] to talk about the financial.

我會轉向 [Neil] 談談財務問題。

Yes. Sure. Bryan, this is Phil.

是的。當然。布萊恩，這是菲爾。

On the accretion, as Rich said, Nadella, very -- coming in very attractive EBITDA margins, kind of near the company average, 20-ish percent. And we would expect what's in our guide would be, call it, in the $0.05 to $0.10 range accretion for 2023 with great opportunity to expand that in 2024 and beyond.

關於增長，正如 Rich 所說，Nadella 的 EBITDA 利潤率非常有吸引力，接近公司平均水平，即 20% 左右。我們預計我們指南中的內容將在 2023 年的 0.05 美元至 0.10 美元範圍內增加，並有很大的機會在 2024 年及以後擴大這一範圍。

Okay. All helpful color there.

好的。那裡所有有用的顏色。

And with regard to the opportunity to increase accretion going forward, you're kind of integrating alongside Rollon, which is uniquely profitable. As your integration efforts continue in that, that business has grown, are Rollon-type margins achievable over time? Are there structural limitations that -- would prevent you from getting to quite that level?

關於未來增加增長的機會，你有點像與 Rollon 一起整合，這是獨一無二的有利可圖。隨著您的整合工作繼續進行，該業務已經增長，隨著時間的推移是否可以實現 Rollon 類型的利潤率？是否存在結構性限制 - 會阻止您達到那個水平？

I would say there's some mix limitations probably within that we would -- our case would be to probably get the margins somewhere halfway between where Nadella enters and where Rollon sits today.

我想說我們可能會在其中存在一些混合限制——我們的情況可能是在納德拉進入的位置和羅倫今天所在的位置之間的中間位置獲得利潤率。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I apologize if I missed this, but did you give the organic sales expectation for the second quarter?

如果我錯過了這個，我很抱歉，但是你給出了第二季度的有機銷售預期嗎？

So, it'd be sequentially flattish.

所以，它會依次變平。

Yes, which would imply a year-over-year, David, I'll call it, mid-singles year-on-year organic.

是的，這意味著年復一年，大衛，我稱之為年中單年有機。

Okay. So if we use 5% or 6% for the second quarter, it's basically the idea of the second half. You're just assuming it's flat year-over-year? That's (inaudible)

好的。所以如果我們第二季度用5%或者6%，基本上就是下半年的想法。你只是假設它同比持平？那是（聽不清）

Correct, organically. That would be the midpoint of the guide. Obviously, the high end would be growth off that, and obviously, the low end of the conservatism we've built in.

正確的，有機的。那將是指南的中點。顯然，高端將是增長的基礎，顯然，我們已經建立的保守主義的低端。

Yes. Expand on that a little bit. Our normal seasonality off of the first quarter to the second would be, call it, flat to up 1% or 2%. And then from Q2 to Q3, down 2% or 3%, and then for Q4, down another 2% or 3%. And I think if you look at the high end of the guide, it would be pretty close to that. We certainly do better than that. I think we did better than that in last year. We did better than that, I think, in '18, and we could do better than that. But I think that's fairly normalish.

是的。稍微擴展一下。從第一季度到第二季度，我們的正常季節性是持平到上漲 1% 或 2%。然後從第二季度到第三季度，下降了 2% 或 3%，然後是第四季度，又下降了 2% 或 3%。而且我認為，如果您查看指南的高端，它會非常接近這一點。我們當然做得更好。我認為我們比去年做得更好。我認為，我們在 18 年做得比那更好，而且我們可以做得更好。但我認為這很正常。

And then in a softening market, a little lower than that and you go down to the low end. It would be probably a little lower than what we did in the 2019 time frame sequentially, which is when we saw heavy truck market softening and some inventory destocking in the second half, et cetera.

然後在一個疲軟的市場中，比那個低一點，你就會下降到低端。這可能會比我們在 2019 年時間框架內連續做的要低一些，當時我們看到重型卡車市場走軟，下半年出現一些庫存去庫存等情況。

So those are kind of the 2 fence posts, I think, of the top end of the revenue guide. And the lower end would be a fairly significant softening on the low end and a normal-ish on the high end.

所以我認為，這些是收入指南頂端的 2 個圍欄帖子。低端將是低端相當顯著的軟化，而高端則是正常的。

And I know by no means are you a long-cycle business. I appreciate that. But given it's already the first week in May, the idea of the second half being flat, is that still at the moment a bit theoretical? Or are you starting to see order patterns 60 days out that would suggest that level of slowdown? (inaudible)

而且我絕不知道你是一個長周期的企業。我很感激。但鑑於現在已經是 5 月的第一周，下半年持平的想法，目前是否仍然有點理論化？或者您是否開始看到 60 天后的訂單模式表明這種放緩程度？ （聽不清）

To that, I would say no. We are not seeing that level of slowdown. April, on a daily basis, was right in line with the first quarter. If you look at slide -- the market slide, which I don't have a number on. Eight, Slide 8. The 3 most bullish markets there, heavy industries, rail and renewable energy, those would -- those, along with aerospace and marine, would be the 5 markets on this chart that we have the most visibility to, the long -- the biggest order books, the longest lead times. So all -- and 2 of those, we moved from up mid-singles to positive. So orders in those space were strong in the first quarter, first 4 months of the year.

對此，我會說不。我們沒有看到那種程度的放緩。 4 月每天都與第一季度一致。如果你看幻燈片 - 市場幻燈片，我沒有數字。八，幻燈片 8。那裡的 3 個最看漲的市場，重工業、鐵路和可再生能源，這些將與航空航天和海洋一起成為這張圖表上我們最能看到的 5 個市場，長期——最大的訂單，最長的交貨期。所以所有 - 其中 2 個，我們從中等單打轉向積極。因此，這些領域的訂單在今年第一季度、今年前 4 個月表現強勁。

You move to the far left, those would be the markets. Automotive, we probably have 10 weeks on the OEM side and in the aftermarket, most of the orders that come in, go out in the same week. Same thing for heavy truck. Distribution, we have a little bit of backlog, but a lot of that is the same thing, that the orders are coming in and out. So it's that middle that I think if we get the orders to stay at the pace they have been through April, there'd be more upside to that. And again, the number you just quoted is the midpoint of the guide. If you go up to the higher end of the guide, I think it'd be a little more optimistic than the numbers you just put out there.

你移到最左邊，那些就是市場。汽車，我們可能在 OEM 方面和售後市場有 10 週的時間，大部分進來的訂單在同一周內發出。重型卡車也是如此。分銷，我們有一點積壓，但很多都是同一件事，訂單進進出出。因此，我認為如果我們得到訂單以保持 4 月份的速度，那將是一個中間點，這會有更多的好處。同樣，您剛才引用的數字是指南的中點。如果你上升到指南的高端，我認為它會比你剛剛發布的數字更樂觀一些。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And a clarification, when you said April in line with the first quarter, that's a sequential comment, I assume, or year-over-year? I mean, that 10%, 11% organic year-over-year or sequential?

澄清一下，當你說 4 月與第一季度一致時，我認為這是連續評論，還是同比？我的意思是，10%、11% 的有機同比增長或連續增長？

Sequentially in line, no softening. So it's sequentially in line with our outlook to be flattish on a daily basis.

順序排列，無軟化。因此，它連續符合我們每天持平的前景。

That's great.

那太棒了。

A quick follow-up. The pricing comment, if I heard correctly, we're not expecting any further year-over-year pricing after the first quarter or no further (inaudible)?

快速跟進。定價評論，如果我沒聽錯的話，我們預計在第一季度之後不會有任何進一步的同比定價，或者不會有進一步的（聽不清）？

No, no. Sequential.

不，不。順序的。

So unlike the last 2 years, where we got our biggest step up from Q4 to Q1, it's fairly typical. But then we had a fair amount of more sequential pricing that we were putting in every quarter, so I think the first quarter just marked our tenth consecutive quarter of sequential pricing. We are not expecting much sequential pricing from the first quarter rate on. It had been said, it probably will still be positive, but it's going to be a nominal positive. And then the comps get harder because of the phenomenon that we were raising them through the course of last year. So the year-over-year number would come down just from a comp perspective, but sequentially, it will be flat to up very modestly.

因此，與過去 2 年不同的是，我們從第四季度到第一季度取得了最大的進步，這是相當典型的。但後來我們每個季度都有相當多的連續定價，所以我認為第一季度標誌著我們連續第十個季度進行連續定價。我們預計從第一季度開始不會有太多連續定價。有人說過，它可能仍會是積極的，但這將是名義上的積極。然後由於我們在去年的過程中提高了他們的現象，比賽變得更難了。因此，僅從 comp 的角度來看，同比數字會下降，但隨後，它將持平到非常適度上升。

Yes. What I would say, David, is we --

是的。大衛，我要說的是我們——

Those carryover (inaudible).

那些結轉（聽不清）。

It was positive in Q1. It will be positive year-over-year all year, It will just moderate as we move through the year just on the difficult comps. But pricing should be positive every quarter year-on-year through the year.

第一季度是積極的。全年都將是積極的，隨著我們在艱難的比賽中度過這一年，它只會緩和。但全年每個季度的定價都應該是正的。

Okay. And the 4% organic for the year then, so price is 2.5% of it, something like that? Just to get a sense of --

好的。那麼當年的有機率為 4%，所以價格是其中的 2.5%，類似這樣的嗎？只是為了感受——

Yes, it'd be more of a contribution from price and volume. We're not getting too specific on it anymore, but more -- definitely more of a contribution from price and volume.

是的，這更多是來自價格和數量的貢獻。我們不再對此過於具體，但更多 - 肯定更多來自價格和數量的貢獻。

So yes, more than 2%, less than 4%. We do expect volume to still be positive as well.

所以是的，超過 2%，不到 4%。我們確實預計交易量仍將是積極的。

Our next question comes from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

With your previous segments, the M&A focus was on process. So with this new reporting structure, do you lean in one direction or the other in terms of building out the portfolio? Or will the focus be more on specific targets -- specific verticals that you might target?

對於您之前的細分市場，併購的重點是流程。因此，對於這種新的報告結構，您在構建投資組合方面是傾向於一個方向還是另一個方向？還是將重點更多地放在特定目標上——您可能針對的特定垂直領域？

Well, I would certainly say that the end market focus would remain on process. So Nadella and American Roller Bearing would be almost -- certainly be 80-plus percent process industries markets, maybe more than 90%. GGB a little more mobile, but still the exciting part of it is probably more the process industries markets, but they have some really good positions in aerospace. And so I think -- and then Spinea would also be process for us. So the focus would remain on Process Industries and then within that, some of the markets that we've talked about, automation, food and beverage remains a focus. Marine has been a focus for us.

好吧，我肯定會說終端市場的重點仍將放在流程上。所以 Nadella 和 American Roller Bearing 幾乎——當然是 80% 以上的過程工業市場，也許超過 90%。 GGB 更具移動性，但仍然令人興奮的部分可能更多是過程工業市場，但他們在航空航天領域擁有一些非常好的位置。所以我認為 - 然後 Spinea 也將成為我們的流程。因此，重點仍將放在過程工業上，然後在其中，我們談到的一些市場，自動化、食品和飲料仍然是重點。海洋一直是我們關注的焦點。

And that being said, the -- certainly something that comes with a mobile mix of rail off-highway. What you haven't seen us do much of is truck and automotive, and I think that will continue to be the case.

話雖這麼說，當然是鐵路非公路移動組合帶來的東西。你還沒有看到我們做的很多是卡車和汽車，我認為情況將繼續如此。

Yes. I would only add, Steve, just wanting to grow in the most attractive sectors as Rich said.

是的。我只想補充一點，史蒂夫，就像里奇所說的那樣，只想在最具吸引力的領域發展。

And then on the Industrial Motion side, you're going to hear us talk a lot about the platforms that lie beneath the segment, which would be automatic lubrication systems, linear motion, drive systems in survey -- in services, belt chain, et cetera. And I think we'll look to continue to scale those platforms as we move forward. So Spinea was an opportunity to scale in the robotic drives area, and obviously, Nadella in the linear motion area. So continuing to really scale those platforms as we move forward and then -- while we're targeting the most attractive sectors.

然後在工業運動方面，你會聽到我們談論很多關於該細分市場下的平台，這將是自動潤滑系統、直線運動、調查中的驅動系統——服務、皮帶鍊等等等。而且我認為我們會在前進的過程中繼續擴展這些平台。因此，Spinea 是一個在機器人驅動領域擴大規模的機會，顯然，納德拉在線性運動領域也是如此。因此，在我們前進的過程中繼續真正擴展這些平台——同時我們瞄準最具吸引力的行業。

So resegmentation doesn't really change how you think about how you'll approach the M&A market?

那麼，重新細分並沒有真正改變您對如何進入併購市場的看法？

Yes. Really, no.

是的。真的不。

Those process-oriented businesses? Okay.

那些面向流程的業務？好的。

Right, correct.

對對對

And Engineered has higher margins and better incrementals last year. Is that what you expect with respect to operating leverage going forward just based on mix, ability to price, how you see the manufacturing footprint? And more broadly, does one have more margin expansion potential than the other?

Engineered 去年有更高的利潤率和更好的增量。這是您基於組合、定價能力以及您如何看待製造足跡而對未來經營槓桿的期望嗎？更廣泛地說，是否有一個比另一個具有更大的利潤擴張潛力？

Yes. I would say when we look at our long-range margin targets of 200 basis points of expansion over the multiyears of the target range, we would look at most of that margin expansion coming through Industrial Motion as opposed to Bearings. So not that we don't have potential, and we're always working to expand the margins in Bearings, but we definitely see more potential in Industrial Motion.

是的。我想說的是，當我們審視目標範圍多年內 200 個基點擴張的長期利潤率目標時，我們會看到大部分利潤率擴張來自 Industrial Motion，而不是軸承。所以並不是說我們沒有潛力，我們一直在努力擴大軸承的利潤率，但我們肯定在 Industrial Motion 看到了更多的潛力。

On the flip side of that, some of these businesses come to us at relatively modest margins to start, so it does take some time to get them up there so you have some time mixing yourself down. But definitely see more potential there on the expansion.

另一方面，其中一些業務以相對較低的利潤率來到我們這裡，所以確實需要一些時間才能讓它們上升到那裡，這樣你就有時間把自己搞砸了。但肯定會看到更多的擴張潛力。

Got it. And if I could ask 1 more quick one.

知道了。如果我可以再問 1 個問題。

Does this new structure require you to realign or retrain the sales force to better sell the product line? Or I guess, are there any benefits or headwinds to this change organizationally?

這種新結構是否需要您重新調整或重新培訓銷售人員以更好地銷售產品線？或者我想，這種組織變革有什麼好處或不利因素嗎？

At the higher level, there's big benefits, and then we've got 1 big bearing business that's largely being run globally. And there's some pockets of it like GGB and specialty areas like aerospace that are sub businesses down beneath that.

在更高的層次上，有很大的好處，然後我們有一個主要在全球範圍內運營的大型軸承業務。還有一些像 GGB 和航空航天這樣的專業領域是其下的子業務。

But one big global business there, and then we're on the Industrial Motion side, set up more as a combination of businesses that, in some cases, share some sales forces and certainly other synergy possibilities like our digital platform, et cetera. But we do have a dedicated management over that group. I think we're much better positioned from a management bandwidth standpoint to scale it and to drive the synergies across the platforms.

但是那裡有一家大型全球企業，然後我們在 Industrial Motion 方面，建立更多的企業組合，在某些情況下，這些企業共享一些銷售團隊，當然還有其他協同可能性，比如我們的數字平台等。但是我們確實對該小組進行了專門的管理。我認為從管理帶寬的角度來看，我們可以更好地擴展它並推動跨平台的協同作用。

I would say the sales force change has already -- it's been happening. We continue to go -- it's a combination. We go to market by end market, geography and product, essentially some combination of those. In some cases and some relatively small geographies, we have salespeople that are covering a wide range of products. In some cases, we have salespeople that cover 1 customer. So it's an ever-evolving situation on the sales side and I think we're good at it, and we definitely have a lot of cross-selling opportunities from the portfolio that we've put together.

我會說銷售人員的變化已經發生了——它一直在發生。我們繼續前進——這是一個組合。我們按終端市場、地域和產品進入市場，本質上是這些的一些組合。在某些情況下和一些相對較小的地區，我們的銷售人員涵蓋範圍廣泛的產品。在某些情況下，我們的銷售人員只負責 1 個客戶。因此，在銷售方面這是一個不斷發展的情況，我認為我們很擅長，而且我們組合在一起的產品組合中肯定有很多交叉銷售的機會。

Our next question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

So we talk through the pricing -- we discussed pricing earlier. But I'm just curious on how to think about mix as we go through the year. So if distribution was obviously a good guy here in the first quarter, probably, I would assume still a tailwind in the second. But is -- how does that behave is if we switch to think markets like rail, I don't think renewables historically is the best from a -- from kind of a contribution standpoint. But just kind of the trade-off, first half to second, does mix end up being enough to offset the pricing tailwind you have? Or is it not that pronounced? Any help on that would be great.

所以我們討論了定價——我們之前討論過定價。但我只是好奇在我們度過這一年時如何考慮混合。因此，如果第一季度的分銷顯然是個好人，我可能會認為第二季度仍然是順風。但是，如果我們轉而考慮像鐵路這樣的市場，我認為可再生能源在歷史上並不是最好的——從某種貢獻的角度來看，它的表現如何。但只是一種權衡，上半場到下半場，混合最終是否足以抵消你所擁有的定價順風？或者它不是那麼明顯嗎？任何幫助都會很棒。

I'm going to let Phil take that one. I did want to make one comment on the renewable energy, we just talked about renewable mix down process industries segment, but it's fine from a company perspective. It's not far off our company. So I would not say that's a big negative from a company perspective.

我要讓菲爾拿那個。我確實想對可再生能源發表評論，我們剛剛談到了可再生能源混合加工工業領域，但從公司的角度來看這很好。離我們公司不遠。因此，從公司的角度來看，我不會說這是一個很大的負面影響。

Yes, Tim. But I think on overall, I do think you're thinking about it right. So if you look at our market chart, we have industrial distribution sort of in the middle for the year. It was quite strong in the first quarter, so -- and again, we've got conservatism baked into the second half. But as that were to moderate, I do think you would see mix sort of moderate along with it. Our mix was very strong in Q1. I would expect, again, what would be implied in the guide would be some moderation of mix. I mean, still strong margin performance for the year, still positive price cost for the year, et cetera. But mix would tend to track some of the more attractive markets, with the biggest one being industrial distribution.

是的，蒂姆。但總的來說，我認為你的想法是對的。因此，如果您查看我們的市場圖表，我們的工業分佈在今年處於中間位置。第一季度的表現非常強勁，所以 - 再一次，我們在下半場表現出保守主義。但由於這是適度的，我認為你會看到適度的混合。我們的組合在第一季度非常強勁。我再次期望指南中暗示的是某種程度的混合。我的意思是，今年的利潤率表現仍然強勁，今年的價格成本仍然為正，等等。但混合往往會追踪一些更具吸引力的市場，其中最大的市場是工業分銷。

Yes. I think going back to our opening question from Steve on conservative outlook on the margins, I do think mix is one of the areas where we are expecting probably the first quarter to be as good as it gets from a mix standpoint.

是的。我想回到史蒂夫關於利潤率保守前景的開場白問題，我確實認為混合是我們預計第一季度可能與混合觀點一樣好的領域之一。

Yes. Okay.

是的。好的。

I mean -- and obviously, they're a small piece of your overall distribution. But in the commentary from the handful of public distributors -- industrial distributors, that doesn't sound like they're expecting a material fall off, so.

我的意思是 - 顯然，它們只是您整體發行版的一小部分。但在少數公共分銷商（工業分銷商）的評論中，這聽起來不像是他們預期會出現實質性下跌，所以。

No, there -- no.

不，那裡——不。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And then -- sorry. Just on the manufacturing piece, and maybe for you, Phil. Just on the -- so you've got these inflationary impacts still coming and the absorption headwind that we've -- that you've been telegraphing for some time. Do these -- some of the footprint realignment, as those come through, are those enough to kind of -- is it a push? Or do you expect that effectively, that manufacturing headwind you had in the first quarter, does that -- based on what you see today, does that get better or worse as we go through the year?

然後——抱歉。只是在製造件上，也許對你來說，菲爾。就在 - 所以你已經得到了這些通貨膨脹的影響和我們已經吸收的逆風 - 你已經電報了一段時間。這些 - 一些足跡重新調整，當那些通過時，這些是否足以有點 - 它是推動力嗎？或者你是否有效地預計，你在第一季度遇到的製造業逆風，是否 - 根據你今天所看到的，隨著我們度過這一年，它會變得更好還是更糟？

Yes, I would say that net-net, would sort of get better just on the -- as the comps get a little bit easier as we move through the year. But in terms of the components, I think you're thinking about the components the right way, which would be obviously continued inflation, a delta in terms of significant inventory build last year. Obviously, our free cash flow guide actually implies inventories that slightly are actually down for the year, so a big delta there which creates some headwinds on the manufacturing side as well as some of the costs. The inflation we got hit with last year, they got capitalized inventory kind of working its way through. Offsetting that is we continue to improve the operational execution of the business with the Mexico plant ramping, the consolidation of the chain plants and the other actions we're taking is going to be an offset to that. And then as I said, the comps will get sort of easier as we move through the year.

是的，我會說 net-net 會在某種程度上變得更好——隨著我們在這一年中前進，補償變得更容易一些。但就組成部分而言，我認為你正在以正確的方式考慮這些組成部分，這顯然是持續的通貨膨脹，這是去年大量庫存增加的三角洲。顯然，我們的自由現金流量指南實際上意味著今年的庫存實際上略有下降，因此存在很大的三角洲，這在製造方面造成了一些不利因素以及一些成本。去年我們受到的通貨膨脹打擊，他們得到了資本化的庫存。抵消的是，我們繼續通過墨西哥工廠的擴產、連鎖工廠的整合和我們正在採取的其他行動來改善業務的運營執行，這將抵消這一點。然後就像我說的那樣，隨著我們這一年的推進，比賽會變得更容易一些。

So to Rich's earlier comment about first quarter maybe being the best for mix, I think the first quarter is probably close to the worst that we'll see on the manufacturing line.

因此，對於 Rich 早些時候關於第一季度可能是最佳組合的評論，我認為第一季度可能接近我們在生產線上看到的最差情況。

And to that point, I'd also add that, costs are definitely leveling off sequentially. Again, we've seen some things decline. Logistics costs are back to close to where they were pre-pandemic. But labor markets remain tight and don't see those costs certainly going back, so it's really a comp issue. And we've been in this sequential increasing cost environment for 9, 10 quarters, but it's definitely leveled off. And then the other thing that's leveled off is our own internal efficiencies from the supply chain challenges.

就這一點而言，我還要補充一點，成本肯定會逐漸趨於平穩。同樣，我們看到一些事情在下降。物流成本已回到接近大流行前的水平。但勞動力市場仍然吃緊，並且認為這些成本肯定不會回落，所以這實際上是一個薪酬問題。我們已經處於這種連續增加成本的環境中 9、10 個季度，但它肯定已經趨於平穩。然後，另一件趨於平穩的事情是我們自己來自供應鏈挑戰的內部效率。

So year-over-year, I would expect some nice improvement embedded in those manufacturing numbers from that. Although I'd also say there were some nice improvements in the first quarter, but it was overwhelmed by the inflationary pressures. But I wouldn't say we have step changes now in productivity from the supply chain issues. The step changes would be more of some of the footprint, things that you mentioned and I highlighted in my comments.

因此，與去年同期相比，我預計這些製造數據會出現一些不錯的改進。雖然我也想說第一季度有一些不錯的改善，但它被通脹壓力壓倒了。但我不會說我們現在因供應鏈問題而在生產力方面有了階梯式變化。這些步驟變化更多的是一些足跡，你提到的和我在評論中強調的事情。

Great.

偉大的。

Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

Just on the margin trajectory and talking about production. Interesting, you said your inventories are going to end the year slightly down on a year basis. The slow in production, is that going to accelerate in the second half? Do you take more out in maybe Q3, Q4? I recognize you're kind of building that into the guidance. Just curious how that kind of plays out through the year?

就在保證金軌跡上並談論生產。有趣的是，你說你的庫存將在年底略有下降。生產緩慢，下半年會加速嗎？ Q3、Q4 你會拿出更多嗎？我知道您正在將其構建到指南中。只是好奇這種方式在一年中的表現如何？

Yes. First, I would say, in the first quarter, it's a -- if you look year-over-year, it's really big delta in inventory. We built a lot last year in the first quarter, did not in the first quarter this year, so there was a large absorption cost issue in the first quarter when you look at the year-over-year. And some of Phil's comments, some of that will moderate because the inventory growth moderated.

是的。首先，我想說的是，在第一季度，它是一個——如果你看同比，它確實是一個很大的庫存增量。我們去年第一季度建造了很多，今年第一季度沒有，所以當你看同比時，第一季度存在很大的吸收成本問題。菲爾的一些評論，其中一些會因為庫存增長放緩而緩和。

But we'd expect inventory to be flattish probably in the second quarter and then down a little bit in the second half, but I think we've got that fully baked into our financial models. And again, it was the first quarter, when you look at year-over-year numbers, probably as bad as it gets.

但我們預計庫存可能在第二季度持平，然後在下半年略有下降，但我認為我們已經將其完全納入我們的財務模型。再一次，這是第一季度，當你看同比數據時，可能已經很糟糕了。

Great.

偉大的。

And do you feel like that's representative of the distribution channel that, by the end of the year, inventories will be potentially down slightly versus a year ago? And just help us understand with all the concern on inventories, like, how do inventories look to you in the distribution channel relative to where you were pre-pandemic?

你覺得這是否代表分銷渠道，到今年年底，庫存可能會比一年前略有下降？並幫助我們理解所有對庫存的擔憂，例如，與大流行前相比，您在分銷渠道中的庫存情況如何？

I would say they're actually probably a little low, still, so as you put it, as a percentage of sales or turns, so I think they're improving the -- in the turns where we have visibility to it. So inventories, distribution is only one small piece of the total inventory so I would not say we're looking at a big change there. But I mean, everybody now is managing inventory. We're managing inventory and things are happening on time and to a cadence and a schedule now, so just the inefficiencies and the waste are naturally coming out.

我會說它們實際上可能有點低，正如你所說的那樣，作為銷售額或周轉率的百分比，所以我認為他們正在改善 - 在我們可以看到它的轉彎處。所以庫存，分銷只是總庫存的一小部分，所以我不會說我們正在尋找一個很大的變化。但我的意思是，現在每個人都在管理庫存。我們正在管理庫存，事情正在按時發生，現在有節奏和時間表，所以效率低下和浪費自然會出現。

But again, I think -- really good that we grew 11% organically in the quarter when we had that phenomenon happening really till the last couple of quarters.

但是，我認為——當我們在過去幾個季度真正發生這種現象時，我們在本季度實現了 11% 的有機增長，這真是太好了。

Yes, right.

對，對。

And Mike, our efforts around inventory, 2 more comments really. One is obviously, it aligns with the midpoint of our guide, which would have volume sort of slightly down in the second half. But more importantly, what we're trying to do with inventory is get our days, as we manage our days, kind of back where they were cause they were elevated as we moved through last year. So it's really more about trying to get our days aligned with where we need to be moving forward in a healthy environment versus anything else.

邁克，我們在庫存方面的努力，真的還有 2 條評論。一個很明顯，它與我們指南的中點一致，下半年的成交量會略有下降。但更重要的是，我們試圖用庫存做的是讓我們的日子，因為我們管理我們的日子，有點回到他們去年的位置，因為我們去年移動時他們被提升了。因此，實際上更多的是努力讓我們的日子與我們需要在健康環境中前進的方向保持一致，而不是其他任何事情。

Typically, our inventory turns would improve in a year where we're delivering double-digit organic and they declined last year. So we've got a -- we just got a good opportunity, as do many of our customers, just to get their turns back in line with where they were.

通常情況下，我們的庫存周轉率會在我們交付兩位數有機產品的一年中有所改善，而去年則有所下降。所以我們有一個 - 我們只是有一個很好的機會，就像我們的許多客戶一樣，只是讓他們的輪流回到原來的位置。

Great.

偉大的。

I'll just sneak one last in there. Like obviously, China is in focus. I know that's a little bit -- you're a little bit more exposed, it seems like on the range of renewable side to China. But just curious how you're seeing this China recovery starting to play out for your specific verticals as we've kind of moved through grew Q1 or the first 4 months of the year?

我會偷偷最後一個進去。很明顯，中國是焦點。我知道這有點——你暴露的更多一點，似乎在中國的可再生能源方面。但只是好奇，隨著我們經歷了增長的第一季度或今年前 4 個月，您如何看待中國的複蘇開始在您的特定垂直領域發揮作用？

I think it's a real positive when you look at both from a cost standpoint of us running our plants over there. The plants are running the best they have since early 2020. And then from a revenue standpoint, there's -- you see now some periods in our -- in the first 4 months of the year where you look and say, China was almost shut down for that 2-week period last year, and now they're clipping along. So in our deck, it was a big part of the driver of the 11% organic. And market is very bullish on renewables, I mentioned we've got good backlog through the third quarter there. We're looking at double-digit growth for the full year. And then I think the -- and the other industrial markets have been a little more mixed, but some pretty low comps. I think generally pretty bullish about that market in '23.

我認為，從我們在那裡運營工廠的成本角度來看，這是一個真正的積極因素。這些工廠的運行是自 2020 年初以來最好的。然後從收入的角度來看，你現在看到我們的一些時期 - 在今年的前 4 個月，你可以說，中國幾乎關閉了去年那 2 週的時間，現在他們正在削減。所以在我們的甲板上，它是 11% 有機驅動力的重要組成部分。市場非常看好可再生能源，我提到我們在第三季度有大量積壓訂單。我們預計全年將實現兩位數的增長。然後我認為 - 和其他工業市場有點混合，但一些相當低的補償。我認為總體上看好 23 年的那個市場。

Our final question today comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

So real quickly, on the resegmentation, I'm curious like there's a lot of questions around like M&A. Do you look at the opposite way too? Is there an opportunity potentially for some addition by subtraction and divesting some of the businesses within the 2 segments?

這麼快，關於重新細分，我很好奇，就像併購一樣有很多問題。你也看反面嗎？是否有機會通過減去和剝離這兩個部門中的一些業務來增加一些業務？

I would not say we have anything of size in either segment that we would be looking to divest. We did divest the Aero Drives business, so $35 million, $40 million of revenue. I'm always looking at the portfolio and certainly that could change, but we -- if we did anything in the next 12 to 18 months, I would expect it to be somewhere between nothing and of a similar size to ADS, a relatively small piece of the portfolio.

我不會說我們在任何一個細分市場中都有任何我們想要剝離的規模。我們確實剝離了 Aero Drives 業務，因此收入為 3500 萬美元、4000 萬美元。我一直在關注投資組合，當然這可能會改變，但我們——如果我們在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內做任何事情，我預計它會介於無和與 ADS 規模相似之間，相對較小投資組合的一部分。

Okay, Cool. And then last one for me. Just China, it seems like Asia was really strong this quarter. I'm curious, what was China specifically? And it seems like there's a bit of a disconnect going on across the coverage where kind of reopening a little bit slower for some folks, it seems like it was probably pretty positive for you guys. So where are you guys kind of seeing strength in your business in China?

好的，酷。然後最後一個給我。只是中國，似乎本季度亞洲真的很強勁。我很好奇，中國具體指的是什麼？整個報導似乎有點脫節，對某些人來說重新開放的速度有點慢，這對你們來說可能是非常積極的。那麼你們在中國的業務中看到了哪些優勢？

Definitely in the renewable space. So for us, it was -- the strong numbers were driven by renewable energy, and for the year, they are going to be driven by renewable energy. And I would say we're seeing the same thing. But putting renewable energy aside, we're seeing some mixed results in China with the reopening, but overall positive. And then I would add India was up significantly and quite bullish on the Indian market for not just '23, but the several years following that as well.

絕對是在可再生空間。所以對我們來說，強勁的數字是由可再生能源驅動的，而今年，它們將由可再生能源驅動。我會說我們看到了同樣的事情。但撇開可再生能源不談，我們在中國看到重新開放帶來的一些喜憂參半的結果，但總體而言是積極的。然後我要補充的是，印度不僅在 23 年，而且在接下來的幾年裡都在顯著增長並且非常看好印度市場。

Yes. What was great about Asia, Joe, is we were up 23% in the region. But we sort of split it, China, India and then sort of the rest of the region. And all 3 of those, China, India and the rest of Asia were all up solidly double-digits in that range. So it was broad-based. And as Rich said, renewables in China was the big driver, but momentum is clearly building there across the industrial landscape.

是的。喬，亞洲的偉大之處在於我們在該地區增長了 23%。但我們有點分裂它，中國、印度，然後是該地區的其他國家。所有這三個國家，中國、印度和亞洲其他國家都在這個範圍內穩步上漲了兩位數。所以它具有廣泛的基礎。正如 Rich 所說，中國的可再生能源是主要驅動力，但整個工業領域的勢頭顯然正在增強。

There are no remaining questions at this time. Sir, do you have any final comments or remarks?

目前沒有剩餘的問題。主席先生，您有任何最後的評論或評論嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Emily, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me.

是的。謝謝，艾米麗，謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您在今天的電話會議後有任何其他問題，請與我聯繫。

Thank you, and this concludes our call.

謝謝，我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for participating in today's Timken's First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的鐵姆肯公司第一季度收益發布電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。