Timken Co (TKR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Timken's second-quarter earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫艾米麗，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加鐵姆肯公司第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

Mr. Frohnapple, you may begin your conference.

Frohnapple 先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thanks, Emily, and welcome, everyone, to our second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This is Neil Frohnapple, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today.

謝謝艾米莉，歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我是鐵姆肯公司投資人關係副總裁 Neil Frohnapple。我們感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin our remarks this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation materials on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

在我們今天早上開始發言之前，我想指出，我們已經在公司網站上發布了演示材料，我們將在今天的季度業績審查中引用這些材料。您也可以透過財報電話會議網路廣播連結上的下載功能存取此資料。

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Rich Kyle; and Phil Fracassa, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Rich and Phil before we open up the call for your questions. During the Q&A, I would ask that you please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up at a time to allow everyone a chance to participate.

今天與我在一起的有鐵姆肯公司總裁兼執行長 Rich Kyle；和我們的財務長 Phil Fracassa。今天早上，在我們開始詢問您的問題之前，我們將聽取里奇和菲爾的開場評論。在問答過程中，我想請大家將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，以便讓每個人都有機會參與。

During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the timken.com website.

在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到與我們未來財務表現、計劃和業務運營相關的前瞻性聲明。由於多種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿和向SEC 提交的報告中對此進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在timken.com 網站上獲取。

We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials. Today's call is copyrighted by The Timken Company and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call.

我們在新聞稿和簡報資料中納入了非 GAAP 財務資訊與其 GAAP 同等財務資訊之間的調整表。現今的通話版權歸鐵姆肯公司所有，未經明確書面同意，我們禁止使用、錄製或傳輸通話的任何部分。

With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in The Timken Company. And I will now turn the call over to Rich.

在此，我要感謝您對鐵姆肯公司的興趣。我現在將把電話轉給里奇。

Thanks, Neil. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Timken delivered a solid second quarter with revenue and profits in line with expectations. Our results continue to demonstrate the strength and diversity of our portfolio and the successful execution of our strategy to build Timken into a diversified industrial leader.

謝謝，尼爾。早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。鐵姆肯公司第二季業績穩健，營收和利潤符合預期。我們的業績繼續證明了我們產品組合的實力和多樣性，以及我們將鐵姆肯公司打造成多元化工業領導者的策略的成功執行。

Revenue was down 7% from last year's record second quarter and roughly flat sequentially from the first quarter. Renewable energy drove the decline and was down over 40% from last year. China wind, which is the driver of the renewable decline, did stabilize sequentially in the second quarter for both revenue and orders.

第二季營收比去年創紀錄的下降了 7%，與第一季基本持平。再生能源推動了這一下降，比去年下降了 40% 以上。中國風電是再生能源下降的驅動力，第二季的收入和訂單確實穩定了。

Rail, aerospace and industrial distribution call up organically over prior year which helped mitigate the impact from renewable energy. The diversity and the strength of the portfolio are helping us navigate through a weak market environment. Margins of 19.5% were strong. Earnings per share of $1.63 were negatively impacted by the revenue, as well as a modestly higher tax rate and higher interest costs.

鐵路、航空航太和工業分銷比上年有機成長，有助於減輕再生能源的影響。投資組合的多樣性和實力正在幫助我們度過疲軟的市場環境。19.5% 的利潤率很高。每股收益為 1.63 美元，受到收入以及適度較高的稅率和較高利息成本的負面影響。

Price remained modestly positive and costs continued to improve year over year. We have ramped down variable costs with the softening demand, and we continue to improve our cost structure through our footprint, integration and productivity initiatives. The Mexico bearing plant is contributing favorably to our year-over-year results. The plant also recently began production of belts and will be ramping up volume into next year. The belt expansion is currently a headwind in the results, but will reflect to a positive in 2025 as we scale the operation and consolidate facilities.

價格維持溫和上漲，成本逐年持續改善。隨著需求的疲軟，我們降低了可變成本，並透過我們的足跡、整合和生產力計劃繼續改善我們的成本結構。墨西哥軸承工廠為我們的同比業績做出了積極貢獻。該工廠最近也開始生產皮帶，並將在明年提高產量。目前，皮帶擴張對業績來說是一個阻力，但隨著我們擴大營運規模和整合設施，到 2025 年將帶來正面影響。

The Nadella integration and the roll-on continued in the quarter, and we continue to see good margin performance in the business despite a relatively soft market environment. We also took further steps to integrate American roller bearings and GGB into the Timken bearing organization, and both product lines are contributing favorably to results. Our operations are running very well, and we have excellent focus on both delivering short-term results and our operating metrics as well as investing in long-term improvement initiatives that will yield results in 2025.

納德拉的整合和滾動在本季度繼續進行，儘管市場環境相對疲軟，但我們仍然看到該業務的良好利潤率表現。我們也採取了進一步措施，將美國滾輪軸承和 GGB 整合到鐵姆肯公司軸承組織中，這兩條產品線都為績效做出了積極貢獻。我們的營運運作良好，我們非常注重提供短期績效和營運指標，並投資於 2025 年將取得成果的長期改善計畫。

From a capital allocation standpoint, we purchased nearly 400,000 shares in the quarter and completed the final sell-down of our position in Timken India Limited. Our net debt position stands slightly below the midpoint of our targeted leverage range. When combined with strong second-half cash flow, we would expect capital allocation to be a meaningful contributor to results over the next 18 months. After CapEx and the dividend, our bias remains weighted to bolt-on M&A to continue to strengthen the portfolio, advance the strategy to scale as an industrial leader and to achieve our long-term financial targets.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們在本季購買了近40萬股股票，並完成了對鐵姆肯印度有限公司持股的最終減持。我們的淨債務部位略低於目標槓桿範圍的中點。結合下半年強勁的現金流，我們預期資本配置將對未來 18 個月的業績做出有意義的貢獻。在資本支出和股利之後，我們仍然偏重於補充性併購，以繼續加強投資組合，推進擴大行業領導者規模的策略並實現我們的長期財務目標。

Turning to the forecast. We are continuing to plan for seasonal sequential revenue declines in the third and fourth quarters. We expect our year-over-year revenue results to improve significantly in the second half, but that is primarily due to easing comps particularly in renewable energy. China wind has been the primary drag on our revenue for the last four quarters. As I said earlier, China wind orders and revenue have stabilized, and we have the backlog to support the second-half guide.

轉向預測。我們繼續為第三季和第四季的季節性連續收入下降做好計劃。我們預計下半年收入將比去年同期顯著改善，但這主要是由於競爭的放鬆，特別是可再生能源領域的競爭。過去四個季度，中國風電一直是我們收入的主要拖累。正如我之前所說，中國風電訂單和收入已經穩定，我們有積壓來支持下半年的指導。

Nothing changed materially in the second quarter to alter our full-year revenue outlook. Most customers and markets now share our view that a broad second half strengthening in industrial markets is unlikely. The July revenue results and trends support our guidance assumptions. On the bottom-line, the midpoint of our guide is for $6.10 and just under 19% EBITDA margins. We are guiding to a second-half decline in EBITDA margins to account for normal seasonality. But structurally, we're in a good position for margins to step up in the first quarter of 2025, as they typically do.

第二季度沒有任何重大變化來改變我們的全年收入前景。大多數客戶和市場現在都同意我們的觀點，即下半年工業市場不太可能全面走強。7 月份的收入結果和趨勢支持我們的指導假設。總而言之，我們指南的中點是 6.10 美元，EBITDA 利潤率略低於 19%。考慮到正常的季節性因素，我們預計下半年 EBITDA 利潤率將下降。但從結構上看，我們處於有利位置，可以像往常一樣在 2025 年第一季提高利潤率。

As we look to 2025 and beyond, we are confident that our markets will rebound and that will return to growth. We also remain committed to achieving our long-term financial targets. And finally, the CEO transition remains on track for early September. Tarak Mehta is looking forward to joining Timken soon, and we're committed to a smooth transition, supported by 19,000 talented employees and a proven and a tenured leadership team. Timken is well positioned for future growth and success under Tarak's leadership.

展望 2025 年及以後，我們相信我們的市場將會反彈並恢復成長。我們也繼續致力於實現我們的長期財務目標。最後，執行長的交接仍有望在 9 月初完成。Tarak Mehta 期待很快加入鐵姆肯公司，我們致力於在 19,000 名才華橫溢的員工和久經考驗的終身領導團隊的支持下實現平穩過渡。在 Tarak 的領導下，鐵姆肯公司為未來的發展和成功做好了充分準備。

I'll now turn it over to Phil.

我現在把它交給菲爾。

Okay. Thank you, Rich, and good morning, everyone.

好的。謝謝你，里奇，大家早安。

For the financial review, I'm going to start on slide 11 of the presentation materials with a summary of our solid second-quarter results. Revenue for the quarter came in at just under $1.2 billion, in line with our expectations and down about 7% from last year's all-time record revenue. We delivered adjusted EBITDA margins of 19.5%, with adjusted earnings per share coming in at $1.63.

對於財務審查，我將從簡報資料的第 11 投影片開始，總結我們第二季的穩健業績。該季度的收入略低於 12 億美元，符合我們的預期，比去年創紀錄的收入下降了約 7%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 19.5%，調整後每股收益為 1.63 美元。

Turning to slide 12, let's take a closer look at our second-quarter sales performance. Organically, sales were down 7.7% from last year. with most of the decline driven by significantly lower wind energy demand in China as we expected. If we exclude wind energy, our organic revenue would have been down less than 3% from last year.

轉到投影片 12，讓我們仔細看看我們第二季的銷售業績。從有機角度來看，銷售額比去年下降了 7.7%。正如我們預期的那樣，大部分下降是由於中國風能需求大幅下降所致。如果排除風能，我們的有機收入將比去年下降不到 3%。

Looking at the rest of the revenue walk, you can see that the acquisitions we closed last year, net of the one divestiture contributed 1.7% of growth to the top line in the quarter, while foreign currency translation was a headwind of roughly 1%. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see organic growth by region, which excludes both currency and net acquisition impact.

看看其餘的收入走勢，你可以看到我們去年完成的收購（扣除一項資產剝離後）為本季營收成長貢獻了 1.7%，而外幣換算則帶來了大約 1% 的阻力。在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到按地區劃分的有機成長，其中排除了貨幣和淨收購的影響。

Let me comment briefly on each region. In the Americas, our largest region, we were down about 1% against last year's strong second quarter. We saw solid growth across several sectors, including distribution, on-highway auto and truck and aerospace, while the marine off-highway and heavy industry sectors were lower. Marine was impacted by the timing of military marine programs under long-term contracts. We expect to grow in the marine sector for the full year, but military programs can be lumpy at times, and the second quarter of last year was a difficult comp. Excluding marine, the Americas region would have been up slightly year over year in the quarter.

讓我簡要評論一下每個地區。在美洲，我們最大的地區，與去年強勁的第二季相比，我們下降了約 1%。我們看到多個行業的穩健成長，包括分銷、公路汽車和卡車以及航空航天，而船舶非公路和重工業行業則較低。海軍陸戰隊受到長期合約下軍事海軍陸戰計畫時間表的影響。我們預計全年海洋領域將實現成長，但軍事項目有時可能會出現波動，去年第二季的業績比較困難。不包括海運，美洲地區本季較去年同期略有成長。

In Asia Pacific, we were down 18%, driven by the lower wind energy demand in China. This was partially offset by double-digit growth in India on higher rail and industrial revenue. Note that China was roughly flat in the quarter, excluding wind energy.

在亞太地區，由於中國風能需求下降，我們的業績下降了 18%。印度鐵路和工業收入成長帶來的兩位數成長部分抵消了這一影響。請注意，不包括風能，中國本季的表現大致持平。

And finally, we were down 12% in EMEA as we saw continued industrial weakness in the region, mainly in Western Europe. Most sectors were lower with general industrial off-highway and distribution posting the largest declines.

最後，歐洲、中東和非洲地區（主要是西歐）的產業持續疲軟，導致該地區的表現下滑 12%。大多數行業均走低，其中一般非公路工業和分銷行業跌幅最大。

Turning to slide 13, adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $230 million or 19.5% of sales compared to $263 million or 20.7% of sales last year. Our solid margins in the quarter reflect the impact of positive price-cost, strong operational execution, and net acquisition accretion, which helped to offset the impact of lower organic sales volume and unfavorable currency.

轉投投影片 13，第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.3 億美元，佔銷售額的 19.5%，而去年為 2.63 億美元，佔銷售額的 20.7%。我們本季的穩健利潤率反映了積極的價格成本、強勁的營運執行力和淨收購增加的影響，這有助於抵消有機銷售下降和不利貨幣的影響。

Looking at the decrease in adjusted EBITDA dollars, you can see that it was driven mainly by lower volume, along with unfavorable currency impact. This was partially offset by favorable price mix, improved operating cost performance and the benefit of acquisitions.

觀察調整後 EBITDA 美元的下降，您可以發現這主要是由於交易量下降以及不利的貨幣影響。這部分被有利的價格組合、改善的營運成本效益和收購的好處所抵消。

Let me comment a little further on some of the drivers in the quarter. With respect to price mix, net pricing was positive once again this quarter with relatively more pricing in industrial motion. Mix was also positive, driven largely by industrial distribution, which generally outperformed OE sectors in the quarter.

讓我進一步評論本季的一些驅動因素。就價格結構而言，本季淨定價再次呈正值，工業動態定價相對較多。混合也是積極的，這主要是由工業分佈推動的，該季度工業分佈的表現普遍優於原始設備行業。

On the manufacturing line, you can see that we delivered modest year-over-year improvement in the quarter driven by better productivity, targeted cost actions and a favorable inventory change impact which more than offset the impact of continued inflation and expenses related to ongoing footprint initiatives including our plant expansion for belts in Mexico.

在生產線上，您可以看到，由於生產力提高、有針對性的成本行動和有利的庫存變化影響，我們在本季度實現了同比小幅改善，這遠遠抵消了持續通膨和與持續足跡相關的費用的影響舉措包括我們在墨西哥的皮帶工廠擴建。

Looking at the SG&A other line, costs were down from last year as targeted initiatives and lower discretionary spending more than offset the impact of higher compensation expense. And finally, acquisitions net of divestitures contributed $8 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, which was accretive to overall company margins as our recent acquisitions are integrating and performing very well.

從 SG&A 其他項目來看，成本較去年有所下降，因為有針對性的措施和較低的可自由支配支出足以抵消較高薪酬費用的影響。最後，扣除資產剝離後的收購在本季度貢獻了 800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，這增加了公司的整體利潤，因為我們最近的收購正在整合並表現良好。

On slide 14, you can see that we posted net income of $96 million or $1.36 per diluted share for the second quarter on a GAAP basis compared to $1.73 last year. The current period includes $0.27 of net expense from special items mainly acquisition amortization. On an adjusted basis, we earned $1.63 per share compared to $2.01 per share last year.

在投影片 14 上，您可以看到我們公佈的第二季淨利為 9,600 萬美元，以 GAAP 計算每股攤薄收益為 1.36 美元，而去年為 1.73 美元。本期包括 0.27 美元的特殊項目淨支出，主要是購置攤銷。調整後的每股收益為 1.63 美元，而去年為每股 2.01 美元。

With respect to some of the below the line items, interest expense in the second quarter was about $3 million higher year over year while diluted shares were more than 2% lower, reflecting our net buyback activity over the past 12 months. Our adjusted tax rate in the quarter came in at 27%, in line with our expectations, but up from last year, driven mostly by the net unfavorable impact of our geographic mix of earnings. And finally, depreciation expense was up slightly in the quarter, as was non-controlling interest. Note that we are expecting a slightly higher NCI deduct this year due to the Timken India sell down.

對於一些線下項目，第二季的利息支出比去年同期增加了約 300 萬美元，而稀釋後的股票則減少了 2% 以上，這反映了我們過去 12 個月的淨回購活動。本季調整後的稅率為 27%，符合我們的預期，但高於去年，這主要是由於我們的收入地理組合的淨不利影響。最後，本季折舊費用略有上升，非控股權益也是如此。請注意，由於鐵姆肯公司印度公司的拋售，我們預計今年 NCI 的扣除額將略高。

Now, let's move to our business segment results starting with engineered bearings on slide 15. In the second quarter, engineered bearings sales were $783 million down 8.6% from last year. Organically sales were down 7%, driven by a significant decline in China wind energy. Excluding wind, organic revenue would have been roughly flat compared to last year, as the rest of the segment showed resilient performance in the quarter. Specifically, revenue in the distribution, aerospace and rail sectors were all up versus last year.

現在，讓我們從幻燈片 15 上的工程軸承開始討論我們的業務部門結果。第二季度，工程軸承銷售額為 7.83 億美元，比去年下降 8.6%。由於中國風能大幅下滑，有機銷售額下降了 7%。不包括風能在內，有機收入與去年相比大致持平，因為該領域的其他業務在本季度表現出彈性。具體來說，分銷、航空航天和鐵路行業的收入均較去年增長。

While the off-highway and general and heavy industrial sectors were lower as we anticipated. Currency was a headwind of revenue of just over 1%, while the TWB divestiture, net of the iMECH acquisition was slightly unfavorable. Engineered bearings adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $166 million or 21.2% of sales compared to $190 million or 22.1% of sales last year. Our solid margins in the quarter reflect the impact of favorable price mix and improved operating cost performance, which helped mitigate the impact of lower volume, higher logistics costs and unfavorable currency.

而非公路、一般和重工業部門則低於我們的預期。貨幣因素對收入造成了略多於 1% 的阻力，而 TWB 剝離（扣除 iMECH 收購）則略有不利。本季工程軸承調整後 EBITDA 為 1.66 億美元，佔銷售額的 21.2%，去年為 1.9 億美元，佔銷售額的 22.1%。我們本季的穩健利潤反映了有利的價格組合和改善的營運成本績效的影響，這有助於減輕銷售下降、物流成本上升和不利貨幣的影響。

Now, let's turn to industrial motion on slide 16. In the second quarter, industrial motion sales were $399 million down 3.9% from last year. Organically, sales declined 9.2% as lower demand was partially offset by higher pricing. Most of our platforms saw lower revenue year over year with drive systems and linear motion posting the largest declines. Drive systems was impacted by timing on military marine programs, which I noted earlier, while linear motion was impacted by broad weakness in Western Europe.

現在，讓我們轉向投影片 16 上的工業動態。第二季度，工業傳動銷售額為 3.99 億美元，比去年下降 3.9%。整體而言，銷售額下降了 9.2%，因為需求下降被定價上漲部分抵消。我們大多數平台的收入年減，其中驅動系統和線性運動下降幅度最大。驅動系統受到軍事海洋計畫時間的影響，正如我之前提到的，而線性運動則受到西歐普遍弱點的影響。

Lubrication was also down modestly while our services, couplings and belts and chain platforms were relatively flat. Acquisitions contributed 6% to the top line, while currency was a headwind of just under 1%. Industrial motion adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $80 million or 20% of sales compared to $86 million or 20.7% of sales last year.

潤滑也略有下降，而我們的服務、聯軸器、皮帶和鏈條平台則相對平穩。收購對營收貢獻了 6%，而貨幣因素的影響則略低於 1%。Industrial Motion 本季調整後 EBITDA 為 8,000 萬美元，佔銷售額的 20%，而去年為 8,600 萬美元，佔銷售額的 20.7%。

Our solid margins in the quarter reflect net acquisition accretion and favorable SG&A performance, which largely offset the impact of lower organic volume. Manufacturing performance was relatively flat in the quarter, as increased productivity and favorable cost performance was offset by ramp costs related to our plant expansion for belts in Mexico.

我們本季的穩健利潤率反映了淨收購增加和良好的銷售、一般行政管理 (SG&A) 績效，這在很大程度上抵消了有機銷售下降的影響。本季的製造業表現相對持平，因為生產力的提高和良好的成本效益被我們墨西哥皮帶工廠擴建相關的坡道成本所抵消。

Turning to slide 17, you can see that we generated operating cash flow of $125 million in the second quarter. And after CapEx, free cash flow was $87 million, which was slightly below last year's level. We expect cash flow to step up in the second half of the year, driven by seasonality and improved working capital performance.

翻到投影片 17，您可以看到我們第二季的營運現金流為 1.25 億美元。扣除資本支出後，自由現金流為 8,700 萬美元，略低於去年的水準。我們預計，在季節性和營運資本績效改善的推動下，下半年現金流將會增加。

From a capital allocation standpoint, we returned $54 million of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. We raised our quarterly dividend by 3% in May, setting 2024 up to be the 11th straight year of annual dividend increases and we bought back 360,000 shares of company stock.

從資本配置的角度來看，本季我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 5,400 萬美元現金。我們在 5 月將季度股利提高了 3%，使 2024 年成為年度股利連續 11 年增加，並回購了 36 萬股公司股票。

Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.9 times, well within our targeted range. Our reduced net debt level of around $1.7 billion reflects the pretax proceeds from the sell-down of Timken India completed during the quarter.

從資產負債表來看，第二季末我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.9 倍，完全在我們的目標範圍內。我們減少的淨債務水準約為 17 億美元，反映了本季完成的鐵姆肯印度公司出售的稅前收益。

Looking at our debt, we issued $600 million euro-denominated 10-year bonds in May, at an attractive interest rate. The proceeds were used to repay near-term maturities and other debt. Timken now has no significant debt maturities until 2027. With our strong balance sheet and cash flow outlook, we have the ability to continue to grow the earnings power of the company moving forward, both organically and through M&A, all while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

看看我們的債務，我們在 5 月發行了 6 億美元、以歐元計價的 10 年期債券，利率頗具吸引力。所得款項用於償還近期到期債務和其他債務。鐵姆肯公司目前在 2027 年之前沒有重大債務到期。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表和現金流前景，我們有能力透過有機方式和併購繼續增強公司未來的獲利能力，同時繼續向股東返還現金。

Now, let us turn to our updated outlook for full year 2024 with a summary on slide 18. Overall, our outlook for organic sales and adjusted EBITDA margins are both relatively unchanged versus the prior guide, but we have slightly reduced our top-line outlook to reflect updated foreign currency and M&A revenue projections. So let us go through it, starting with the sales outlook.

現在，讓我們轉向更新後的 2024 年全年展望，幻燈片 18 上有總結。總體而言，我們對有機銷售和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的預期與先前的指導相比相對沒有變化，但我們略微下調了營收預期，以反映最新的外幣和併購收入預測。讓我們從銷售前景開始回顧一下。

We are now planning for full-year revenue to be down in the range of 3% to 4% in total versus 2023. This is a net change of 50 basis points at the midpoint and a tighter range versus our prior outlook. Organically, there are a few pluses and minuses among the sectors, but we are maintaining our outlook for organic sales to be down around 5% at the midpoint, with renewable energy still driving most of the decline, and the outlook continues to assume no recovery or inflection in the second half.

我們現在計劃全年收入總額較 2023 年下降 3% 至 4%。與我們先前的展望相比，中間值淨變化 50 個基點，範圍更窄。從有機角度來看，各行業之間存在一些優點和缺點，但我們維持有機銷售額中點下降 5% 左右的預期，其中可再生能源仍是下降的主要原因，並且前景繼續假設不會復甦或後半段的拐點。

With respect to currency, we're now planning on a headwind of around 75 basis points for the full year based on current exchange rates, which is about 25 basis points more than our prior estimate. And finally, we lowered our outlook for M&A slightly by 25 basis points compared to our prior guidance to reflect our current forecast for our 2023 acquisitions.

就貨幣而言，根據當前匯率，我們目前計劃全年逆風約為 75 個基點，比我們先前的估計高出約 25 個基點。最後，與先前的指導相比，我們將併購前景略微下調了 25 個基點，以反映我們目前對 2023 年收購的預測。

On the bottom line, we've narrowed our outlook and now expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6 to $6.20, which is down $0.05 at the midpoint from our prior guide. This reflects our updated revenue estimate offset partially by modest net accretion from the TIL transaction.

總而言之，我們縮小了預期範圍，目前預計調整後每股收益在 6 美元至 6.20 美元之間，比我們之前的指導值中位數下降了 0.05 美元。這反映了我們最新的收入估計被 TIL 交易的適度淨增長部分抵消。

Our outlook implies that our full-year 2024 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be in the high 18% range at the midpoint essentially unchanged from our prior outlook. For the third quarter, we expect organic sales to decline in the low single digits range compared to last year. We also expect adjusted EBITDA margins and earnings per share to be down sequentially and year on year on the lower volume and moderating price cost environment.

我們的前景表明，我們 2024 年全年綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將處於 18% 的高位區間，與我們先前的預期基本持平。對於第三季度，我們預計有機銷售額與去年相比將下降到較低的個位數範圍內。我們也預計，由於銷售下降和價格成本環境溫和，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和每股盈餘將環比和同比下降。

Moving to free cash flow, we've updated our full-year outlook to greater than $350 million. Our update reflects $45 million of taxes to be paid in the second half related to the Timken India transaction. This accounts for most of the change from our prior outlook. Note that the pretax proceeds we received in the second quarter are reflected in net cash from financing activities. In other words, outside of free cash flow.

談到自由現金流，我們將全年展望更新為超過 3.5 億美元。我們的更新反映了下半年與鐵姆肯公司印度交易相關的 4,500 萬美元稅。這是我們先前展望發生變化的主要原因。請注意，我們在第二季收到的稅前收益反映在融資活動產生的淨現金中。換句話說，在自由現金流之外。

Excluding the incremental taxes, our free cash flow outlook for 2024 reflects over 100% conversion on estimated total GAAP net income at the midpoint. We are still planning for CapEx of around 4% of sales, with most of the spend targeted at manufacturing footprint expansions in Mexico and India, as well as other growth and operational excellence initiatives.

不包括增量稅項，我們對 2024 年自由現金流的展望反映了 GAAP 淨利潤總額中點估計值超過 100% 的轉換。我們仍計劃將資本支出佔銷售額的 4% 左右，其中大部分支出旨在擴大墨西哥和印度的製造足跡，以及其他成長和卓越營運計劃。

And finally, we expect an adjusted tax rate of 27% for the full year and net interest expense in the range of $105 million both unchanged from our prior guide. With respect to interest expense, the unchanged outlook reflects a benefit from the TIL sell down, along with other forecast adjustments for cash and debt which essentially offset one another for the year.

最後，我們預計全年調整後稅率為 27%，淨利息支出為 1.05 億美元，均與我們先前的指引一致。就利息支出而言，前景不變反映了 TIL 拋售帶來的收益，以及現金和債務的其他預測調整，這些調整在今年基本上相互抵消。

To summarize, Timken delivered solid results in the second quarter with strong margin performance in both segments and revenues that were in line with our expectations which further demonstrates the resiliency of our differentiated portfolio. We remain focused on delivering solid performance over the remainder of the year, while advancing our strategic initiatives to strengthen the company for the future.

總而言之，鐵姆肯公司第二季度取得了穩健的業績，兩個部門的利潤率和收入均表現強勁，符合我們的預期，這進一步證明了我們差異化產品組合的彈性。我們仍專注於在今年剩餘時間內實現穩健的業績，同時推進我們的策略舉措，以增強公司的未來。

This concludes our formal remarks, and we'll now open the line for questions. Operator?

我們的正式發言到此結束，現在我們將開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Stephen Volkmann，Jefferies。

Great. Good morning, guys. Can you just remind me what you do in my head is kind of spending today. So we got to make sure you get the right company. I'm kidding. So I have one question for each of you. Rich, you said in your prepared comments that it feels like China wind sort of flattening out. I don't want to put words in your mouth. But I'm going to ask you to pull on that a little bit. Do you think we sort of reached the bottom for renewables? Can that business be up next year?

偉大的。早安，夥計們。你能提醒我一下，你今天在我腦中所做的就是一種支出嗎？所以我們必須確保您找到合適的公司。我在開玩笑。我想問你們每個人一個問題。Rich，你在準備好的評論中說，感覺中國風有點平淡了。我不想把話塞到你嘴裡。但我要請你稍微撐一下。您認為我們的再生能源是否已觸底？明年這個生意還能做嗎？

Yes, it could definitely be up. We were flattish, slightly up and win from Q1 to Q2, so we think we've certainly bottomed. There is usually a little seasonality from first half to second half, but we have the backlog to stay flattish for the rest of this year. I'd say it is too early to call next year, tends to be a longer lead time item.

是的，肯定會上漲。從第一季到第二季度，我們表現平平，略有上升，並取得了勝利，所以我們認為我們肯定已經觸底。上半年到下半年通常會有一點季節性，但我們的積壓訂單在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定。我想說明年打電話還為時過早，往往是一個較長的交貨時間項目。

So as we get to next quarter's call, I think we should have a good feel how we are going to at least start the year, but definitely could be up. It's probably impossible to be up back to peak levels just because of the level we're operating at. It would take us a while to ramp back up to those levels. So probably the fastest for that would be '26 or '27, but yes we could be up next year.

因此，當我們進行下個季度的電話會議時，我認為我們應該對至少今年的開局有一個很好的感覺，但肯定會有所上升。僅僅因為我們目前的營運水平，可能不可能回到峰值水平。我們需要一段時間才能恢復到這些水準。所以最快的可能是 26 或 27 年，但我們明年可能會上升。

Okay. Good. Good color. And then, Phil, I'm trying to think about -- there is a bunch of stuff going on there. You're doing some things on the cost side, you have the new facility in Mexico. You have SG&A kind of coming out, there is some synergies, I think, on some of the M&A. Just irrespective of volume, which will be whatever it is next year, but what are the sort of buckets of potential EBITDA goodness in 2025 that are not related to volume?

好的。好的。顏色好。然後，菲爾，我正在努力思考——那裡發生了很多事情。您正在成本方面做一些事情，您在墨西哥擁有新工廠。你有SG&A 的出現，我認為在一些併購上有一些協同效應。不管明年的銷售量是多少，但 2025 年哪些潛在的 EBITDA 收益與銷售量無關？

Yes. It is a good question, Steve. So I think obviously, the footprint actions would be one I'd point to in terms of the new plants in Mexico. Mexico will probably continue to ramp for belts at the early part of the year. India will be ramping during the year, but those will be footprint actions should continue to be a benefit as we look ahead. Obviously just continuing to execute our strategy around capital allocation, whether that is M&A or buyback ought to create accretion for us.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，史蒂夫。因此，我認為顯然，我會在墨西哥的新工廠中指出足跡行動。墨西哥可能在今年年初繼續增加輸送帶數量。印度將在今年實現成長，但展望未來，這些足跡行動應該會繼續帶來好處。顯然，只要繼續執行我們圍繞資本配置的策略，無論是併購或回購，都應該為我們創造增值。

And we'll continue to focus on targeted cost initiatives through operational excellence, targeted cost actions, keeping controls on costs while still looking to serve our customers in this environment. And obviously, pricing will be kind of highly dependent on where we are from a market standpoint, but we are generating positive price this year, really no change to the pricing outlook from what we talked about last quarter, still expected to be north of 50 bps for the year, again, probably not a 100, somewhere in between and with positive pricing in both segments.

我們將繼續透過卓越營運、有針對性的成本行動、保持成本控制來專注於有針對性的成本計劃，同時仍尋求在這種環境下為我們的客戶提供服務。顯然，定價將在很大程度上取決於我們從市場角度來看的位置，但我們今年的價格為正，與我們上季度討論的定價前景相比，實際上沒有變化，仍預計將在 50 以上同樣，今年的基點可能不是100，介於兩者之間，兩個細分市場的定價均為正值。

And as we move ahead to next year, it is always our predisposition to keep -- to move prices in line with cost inflation. So that would be something else I would point to. And then obviously, our strategy around both on the organic side with the product vitality initiatives we've been focused on as well as the M&A, as I mentioned earlier.

當我們邁入明年時，我們始終傾向於維持——根據成本通膨調整價格。所以這就是我要指出的其他事情。顯然，正如我之前提到的，我們的策略圍繞著有機方面、我們一直關注的產品活力計劃以及併購。

Great. Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。謝謝你們，夥計們。我會把它傳遞下去。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI。

Hi. Thank you. Just sort of a broad question. You seem to really emphasize the point we expect capital allocation to be a meaningful contributor to results over the next 18 months. I mean is that a function of the core businesses, obviously a little sluggish right now, given the end markets? Or were you trying to signal something more significant about utilizing your cash flow and balance sheet?

你好。謝謝。只是一個廣泛的問題。您似乎確實強調了這一點，即我們預計資本配置將對未來 18 個月的業績做出有意義的貢獻。我的意思是，考慮到終端市場，這是核心業務的一個功能，目前顯然有點低迷？還是您試圖發出有關利用現金流量和資產負債表的更重要訊號？

No, I would say, not signaling anything significant, I would say, reinforcing that we've been strong generator of cash for multiple years and we have moved from the low end of our leverage range to the high end. And we are -- after a very active year last year, we have already moved back to below the midpoint with quite a bit of cash coming in the next 18 months. So not signaling anything except probably more of the same, and that is either accretive M&A. And if that M&A isn't there or doesn't meet our financial hurdles than share buyback. And in either case, I think we continue to be a meaningful contributor.

不，我想說，這並沒有發出任何重大信號，我想說的是，這強化了我們多年來一直是強大的現金產生者，並且我們已經從槓桿範圍的低端轉向了高端。經過去年非常活躍的一年後，我們已經回到了中點以下，並且在接下來的 18 個月內將獲得大量現金。因此，除了可能更多相同之外，沒有發出任何信號，這要么是增值性併購。如果併購不存在或無法滿足我們的財務障礙，那麼就進行股票回購。無論哪種情況，我認為我們仍然是一個有意義的貢獻者。

All right. Thank you. And a follow-up on the comment about we expect the first quarter of '25 to provide the normal sequential seasonal benefit you get from 4Q to 1Q, if I heard that correctly. Obviously right now, the earnings year over year have been down.

好的。謝謝。如果我沒聽錯的話，關於我們預計 25 年第一季將提供從第四季度到第一季度獲得的正常連續季節性效益的評論的後續內容。顯然，目前獲利年減。

When you think of that sequential balance into the first quarter, I mean could we get in -- do you envision it as getting close to being back to flattening out earnings? I'm just trying to get a sense of the bounce you are referencing. Obviously, I can look at historicals, but just want to make sure I understood what you were signaling about what the first quarter feels like after the work on the back half of the year.

當你想到第一季的連續平衡時，我的意思是我們是否可以進入 - 你是否認為它會接近恢復持平收益？我只是想了解你所提到的反彈。顯然，我可以查看歷史數據，但只是想確保我理解您所暗示的關於下半年工作後第一季的感覺。

Yes. I would say, first, it's certainly too early for us to call 2025. I think there is reasons to be optimistic about it. But what's really saying there is even in a weak year, we have a nice bump typically from Q4 to Q1 on both revenue and margins and earnings per share.

是的。我想說，首先，現在斷言 2025 年還為時過早。我認為有理由對此感到樂觀。但真正的意思是，即使在疲軟的一年，我們的營收、利潤率和每股盈餘通常從第四季到第一季都有不錯的成長。

To your specific question about getting earnings back to flat, I believe with our guide, assuming we hit the guide, we'd have to be around 8% up from Q4 to Q1, and that is not a precise number, plus or minus there. But high single digits up from Q4 to Q1 organically to get back to flat.

對於你關於讓收益恢復持平的具體問題，我相信根據我們的指南，假設我們達到了指南，從第四季度到第一季度我們必須增長8% 左右，這不是一個精確的數字，可以加上或減去那裡。但從第四季到第一季的高個位數成長有機地回到了持平狀態。

And if you look at the last four years, our Q4 to Q1 sequential I've got in front of me this year which was obviously weak was 9%, the prior three years were plus 17%, plus 12%, and plus 15%. So certainly, as we sit here today, getting back to top-line growth in the first quarter of next year is attainable. And so also it would be earnings per share.

如果你看看過去四年，我今年第四季到第一季的連續成長率明顯較弱，為 9%，前三年分別為 17%、12% 和 15% 。因此，毫無疑問，當我們今天坐在這裡時，明年第一季恢復營收成長是可以實現的。每股收益也是如此。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Robert Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅伯特‧韋特海默，Melius 研究公司。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just to kind of continue on that theme, I think you said ex wind, you were kind of just down three core, which is fairly muted. If you look at those businesses and leave out distribution for the moment, are orders and indications from customers flattish or falling or rising any sense of orders there. And then I think you moved rail up a little bit in the mix there. I wonder if you could give context around that. Is that railcar local? What went on there? Thank you.

你好。謝謝。大家早安。只是為了繼續這個主題，我想你說過前風，你只是下降了三個核心，這是相當安靜的。如果你看看這些企業，暫時不考慮分銷，你會發現來自客戶的訂單和指示是否持平、下降或上升，那裡的訂單有任何感覺。然後我認為你把鐵路的混合程度提高了一點。我想知道您能否提供相關背景資訊。那個電車是本地的嗎？那裡發生了什麼事？謝謝。

Yes. Sure, Rob. Thanks. This is Phil. So on the orders, I would say the way we're seeing the orders right now, if we pull the wind energy out, I mean orders certainly down year on year, but sort of flattish sequentially Q1 to Q2. So as we said, nothing that would indicate we are going to inflect in the second half, but certainly supportive of the overall outlook.

是的。當然，羅布。謝謝。這是菲爾.因此，在訂單方面，我想說的是，我們現在看到的訂單方式，如果我們取消風能，我的意思是訂單肯定同比下降，但第一季到第二季的環比持平。正如我們所說，沒有任何跡象表明我們會在下半年出現變化，但肯定會支持整體前景。

And you got it right. I mean, in the quarter, if we pulled renewable out, we would have been down less than 3. if you look at the full-year guide of our minus 5 organic, if you take the renewable out of there, it's actually down a little bit less than 2. So it is driving the bulk of the bulk of our guide, not just in the quarter, but for the full year.

你做對了。我的意思是，在本季度，如果我們取消再生能源，我們的下降幅度會不到3。下降了略小於2。因此，它正在推動我們指南的大部分內容，不僅在本季度，而且在全年。

And then in terms of the bucket, you got it right, we did move rail and marine over to the right. Marine was really just current expectations for military marine program activity over the course of the rest of the year. And then rail, the rail business is doing very well. It is a global business.

然後就桶而言，你說得對，我們確實將鐵路和海運移到了右側。海軍陸戰隊實際上只是目前對今年剩餘時間軍事海軍陸戰計畫活動的預期。然後是鐵路，鐵路業務做得很好。這是一項全球性業務。

We're up outside the US India has been a real strong performer for us. Europe has been relatively flat, I'd say, overall. And then we've been up in the Americas. And I would tell you, in the Americas, it is been both MRO service activity, but also outgrowing I'd say, outgrowing the OE builds freight car build in North America, and that was certainly a pleasant surprise as we moved through the quarter and was one of the reasons we moved it over to the right.

我們在美國以外，印度對我們來說是一個真正強大的表現者。我想說，整體而言，歐洲的情況相對平穩。然後我們就到了美洲。我想告訴你，在美洲，這既是MRO 服務活動，也是增長速度，我想說的是，增長速度超過了北美的OE 製造貨運汽車的製造速度，這無疑是一個驚喜，因為我們整個季度都在成長這也是我們將其移至右側的原因之一。

And then just to kind of fully close the loop, I'd say, sectors that kind of moved to the left or lean left, we did move heavy industries over just given the order book activity that we saw in Q2, that's late cycle -- that's project spend, in big sectors like oil and gas and metals, OE activity, move that over to the left just given the order activity we saw. And then probably the lean the left a little in off-highway, it stayed in the far left column, but we did adjust that a little bit for ag, but those would really be the only sectors that we would have moved either physically or kind of intellectually as we updated the outlook.

然後，為了完全閉合循環，我想說，那些向左移動或向左傾斜的行業，考慮到我們在第二季度看到的訂單簿活動，我們確實將重工業轉移了，這是周期後期 - - 這是石油、天然氣和金屬等大型行業的項目支出，原廠設備活動，根據我們看到的訂單活動將其移至左側。然後可能在非公路上向左傾斜一點，它留在最左邊的列中，但我們確實對農業進行了一些調整，但這些確實是我們物理或實物移動的唯一部分當我們更新展望時，我們在智力上的變化。

The only add -- I would add to that -- first part of your question on orders. Our sequential guide off Q2 was minus 3%, minus 4%-ish per quarter, which is significantly better than last year's sequential. But again there we saw coming out of the supply chain issues and the significant slowdown. But it would be a little pretty similar, a little softer than what we had in '21, '22.

唯一的補充——我想補充一下——你關於訂單的問題的第一部分。我們第二季的環比指引為負 3%，每季環比為負 4%，明顯優於去年的環比。但我們再次看到供應鏈問題和顯著放緩。但它會有點非常相似，比我們在 21 年、22 年的情況要柔和一些。

So I'd say, again, we are looking at normal seasonality. As Phil highlighted some strength in some pockets, some wins in there. And then some areas that are softer and some offsetting. So fairly normal, and that's what I would say the order pattern is supporting.

所以我想說，我們正在考慮正常的季節性。正如菲爾強調的那樣，某些領域有一些優勢，也有一些勝利。然後是一些較軟的區域和一些抵消的區域。所以相當正常，這就是我所說的訂單模式所支持的。

And then the other part I'd throw in. Phil hit marine, which is something we put out some press releases on the last several years that we've had some really good platform wins there over the years. We don't talk a lot about our platform wins because most of them come in the form of $10,000 here -- $100,000 there, occasionally get up to $1 million. But we've got a really good application engineering pipeline and some really good self-help coming that, again is in line with our outgrowth initiatives as well. So feel good about that as well.

然後我會把另一部分放進去。Phil 擊中了 Marine，這是我們在過去幾年發布的一些新聞稿，多年來我們在那裡取得了一些非常好的平台勝利。我們不太談論我們的平台盈利，因為大多數盈利都是這裡 10,000 美元，那裡 100,000 美元，偶爾會達到 100 萬美元。但我們有一個非常好的應用工程管道和一些非常好的自助服務，這也符合我們的發展計畫。所以對此也感覺良好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩布萊爾，奧本海默。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I was hoping we could drill down a little bit more on industrial distribution trends. It sounds like relatively supportive within a very choppy and fluid demand backdrop. What was the monthly order cadence through Q2 and into early Q3? And how does that progression compared to typical seasonality?

謝謝。早安，夥計們。我希望我們能夠更深入地了解工業分佈趨勢。在需求波動很大的背景下，這聽起來相對具有支撐性。從第二季到第三季初的每月訂單節奏是多少？與典型的季節性相比，這種進展如何？

Yes. Thanks Bryan. I'd say overall, relatively stable and pretty much in line with normal seasonality, I'd say, in terms of progression through the quarter and then looking at the full year. But you are right in the quarter. I would say, once again, we talked about this last quarter, but industrial distribution was I would say, a little bit of a pleasant surprise in terms of the performance we saw.

是的。謝謝布萊恩。我想說，總體而言，相對穩定，並且幾乎符合正常的季節性，就整個季度的進展以及全年而言。但你在這個季度是對的。我想說，我們再次討論了上個季度的情況，但我想說的是，就我們看到的表現而言，工業分佈有點令人驚訝。

It was up in the quarter probably a little bit, call it, mid-single digit-ish range, and that would be pretty much globally everywhere but Europe. We were up in the Americas, up in Asia, up in both North and Latin America. So it is been pretty broad support, and that's kind of driven by continued industrial activity, continued MRO activity. I talked about heavy industries being down, which is kind of the OEM -- the OE side of all metals, oil and gas, other big markets.

本季的價格可能會上漲一點點，可以稱之為中等個位數範圍，這幾乎遍及歐洲以外的全球各地。我們在美洲、亞洲、北美和拉丁美洲都處於領先地位。因此，這是相當廣泛的支持，這是由持續的工業活動和持續的 MRO 活動所推動的。我談到重工業正在衰退，這是一種原始設備製造商（OEM）——所有金屬、石油和天然氣以及其他大市場的原始設備製造商方面。

But the MRO side, generally get served through distribution continues to roll along. So we do -- and then relative to inventory, we do believe inventories appear to be at good levels for this level of demand. So we've talked about inventory for the last several quarters, but it does feel like inventories are in relatively good shape for this level of demand moving through the rest of the year.

但 MRO 方面，通常透過分銷繼續滾動獲得服務。因此，我們確實認為，相對於庫存而言，庫存似乎處於適合此需求水準的良好水準。因此，我們已經討論了過去幾季的庫存，但對於今年剩餘時間的這種需求水準來說，庫存確實處於相對良好的狀態。

That's good to hear and very helpful color. And then -- so a follow-up to Steve's question. Obviously, through recent demand pressure the team has been pretty active in managing run rate costs, as well as some streamlining of your manufacturing footprint. How should we think about the cost savings achieved to-date, what's incremental in the back half, and is there a level of structural cost out that we should keep in mind for 2025?

這聽起來很不錯，而且顏色也很有幫助。然後——這是史蒂夫問題的後續。顯然，由於最近的需求壓力，團隊在管理運作成本以及簡化製造足跡方面非常積極。我們應該如何考慮迄今為止實現的成本節約、下半年的增量以及 2025 年我們應該牢記的結構性成本水準？

Yes, I think the right way to think about it is, I mean, obviously for us, operational excellence, particularly in an environment like this is -- is a lot of small -- and we talk about the big initiatives, the plant expansions which enable us to take out other in most cases, higher cost facilities and replaced with more cost effective, more efficient facilities in some cases, in low-cost countries or best-cost countries. So I mean, that continues, but it is also a lot of smaller initiatives as well.

是的，我認為正確的思考方式是，我的意思是，顯然對我們來說，卓越的運營，特別是在這樣的環境中 - 是很多小 - 我們談論重大舉措，工廠擴建這使我們能夠在大多數情況下拆除其他成本較高的設施，並在某些情況下以低成本國家或成本最佳國家的更具成本效益、更高效的設施來取代。所以我的意思是，這種情況仍在繼續，但也有很多較小的舉措。

So for example, we have been really focused on hiring, and I would say in our operative footprint, we continue we are down -- continue to be down over 10% from, call it a year ago as we -- in pockets of the business where it is been weaker. We've been adjusting our head count levels with an eye towards, hey these markets are going to recover. So let us make sure we keep critical folks and that kind of thing.

例如，我們一直非常專注於招聘，我想說的是，在我們的營運足跡中，我們繼續下降——比一年前下降了 10% 以上——在我們的口袋裡。我們一直在調整我們的員工數量水平，並著眼於這些市場將會復甦。因此，讓我們確保保留批評者之類的東西。

But aligning with lower demand, we've been accelerating the acquisition integration to drive synergies, especially considering we didn't -- we haven't done a deal so far this year. That's given us an opportunity to really step on the gas, if you live around acquisition integration, which I think you are starting to see that come through. Not only in the acquisition performance that we specifically isolate, but also even on the Timken side as well.

但為了適應較低的需求，我們一直在加速收購整合以推動協同效應，特別是考慮到我們今年到目前為止還沒有任何交易。如果你圍繞著收購整合生活，這給了我們一個真正加大力度的機會，我認為你已經開始看到這一點的實現。不僅在我們特別隔離的採集性能方面，甚至在鐵姆肯公司方面也是如此。

And then I'd say, when we talk about the big facilities, we have consolidated a number of I would say, a number of smaller facilities. We've got half a dozen smaller facilities over the last 12 months to 18 months, which are all incremental benefits if you will. So we tend to not provide dollar amounts because you need that -- you need those savings to offset inflation, offset volume declines offset some of the other headwinds you have.

然後我想說，當我們談論大型設施時，我們整合了一些我想說的一些較小的設施。在過去 12 個月到 18 個月裡，我們擁有六家小型設施，如果您願意的話，這些都是增量收益。因此，我們傾向於不提供美元金額，因為你需要——你需要這些儲蓄來抵消通貨膨脹，抵消交易量下降，抵消你所面臨的其他一些不利因素。

But there is no question when you look at the manufacturing bucket, if you will and even the material bucket, we've done a lot of work on material savings tactics. You're seeing really good benefit, which has been margin supportive in 2024. And I think, as we move into next year, it could be margin accretive in 2025 or should be margin accretive 2025.

但毫無疑問，當你看看製造桶，甚至材料桶時，我們在材料節省策略上做了很多工作。您會看到非常好的效益，這對 2024 年的利潤率起到了支撐作用。我認為，隨著我們進入明年，它可能會在 2025 年實現利潤成長，或者應該在 2025 年實現利潤成長。

Yes. I'd just add as Phil said, we don't necessarily say it's $30 million or $40 million. We do have a lot of activity there. It is probably a little more weighted to industrial motion right now. Again, as Phil said, we've been consolidating quite a few smaller facilities there, and it is really embedded into our margin targets.

是的。我想補充一點，正如 Phil 所說，我們不一定說是 3000 萬美元或 4000 萬美元。我們在那裡確實有很多活動。現在它可能更注重工業運動。同樣，正如菲爾所說，我們一直在那裡整合了相當多的小型設施，並且它確實融入了我們的利潤目標。

So I think when you look at the first half of the year, north of 20% EBITDA margins in a pretty significantly down start to the year from a revenue standpoint. It wasn't long ago that 20% margins we were shooting for at a peak revenue. So it is indicative of -- it is key to our margin expansion goals and our long-term financial targets, and it is embedded in those targets.

因此，我認為，從收入的角度來看，今年上半年的 EBITDA 利潤率超過了 20%，而年初的利潤率則明顯下降。不久前，我們的目標是在營收高峰時達到 20% 的利潤率。因此，它表明——它是我們的利潤擴張目標和長期財務目標的關鍵，並且它嵌入在這些目標中。

Understood. And again, very helpful color. Thank you.

明白了。再說一遍，非常有用的顏色。謝謝。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi. Good morning, guys. I think this segment reclassification five or six quarters ago was meant to show industrial motion as maybe the growthier side of the business, basically the old process control stuff but the organic decline is kind of tracked to bearings over the past three quarters or four quarters. Has the industrial motion revenue trends surprised you? And how do you expect those segments will track in a recovery?

你好。早安，夥計們。我認為五、六個季度前的細分市場重新分類是為了表明工業動態可能是業務成長的一面，基本上是舊的過程控制內容，但有機下降有點追蹤過去三個季度或四個季度的軸承。工業運動收入趨勢是否令您感到驚訝？您預計這些細分市場將如何復甦？

Yes. Maybe I would start, Steve. I'd tell you, it was a larger organic decline than probably you expected. And certainly we would have expected ordinarily. But that marine the marine item, I think was significant. It is kind of why we called it out marine was down really significantly.

是的。也許我會開始，史蒂夫。我想告訴你，有機下降幅度可能比你預期的還要大。當然，我們通常也會預料到。但我認為那個海洋計畫很重要。這就是為什麼我們稱海軍陸戰隊的業績大幅下滑的原因。

And again, we expect to be up for the full year, but that marine business sits in industrial motion, and that decline was a significant contributor of the minus nine-ish organic for the quarter. If you take the marine out, you are probably closer to the 5 or 6 down organic, more in line with maybe what you're seeing across the rest of the industrial landscape.

再說一次，我們預計全年業績會成長，但海運業務處於工業動態之中，這種下降是本季有機率下降九成左右的重要原因。如果你去掉海軍陸戰隊，你可能更接近 5 或 6 的有機物，更符合你在工業景觀的其他部分看到的情況。

The other point is we do have some of the businesses that we own that are running extremely well. Linear motion in particular does have a large European exposure. So it is hard to overcome the headwinds in Europe. But overall, I would say the mix of business we have is really good, as you know. And I think over time, you'll see it should with the markets that the industrial motion business is indexed to, we do believe probably has the ability to grow a little bit faster than, say where the markets that the bearing business is indexed to.

另一點是我們擁有的一些業務確實運作得非常好。尤其是線性運動在歐洲有很大的影響力。因此，歐洲的逆風很難克服。但總的來說，我想說，正如您所知，我們的業務組合非常好。我認為隨著時間的推移，您會看到工業運動業務所索引的市場應該會成長，我們確實相信可能有能力比軸承業務所索引的市場成長得更快一些。

And then from a margin standpoint, we've got the Mexico plant ramp going on. We had the large volume decline. Military marine mix is industrial motion up, I'd say. So when that is down, it can have an impact. But I do think over time, industrial motion is indexed to relatively higher growth markets with the ability to generate relatively higher margins as well.

然後從利潤的角度來看，我們墨西哥工廠的產能正在增加。我們的成交量大幅下降。我想說，軍事海洋混合是工業運動的進步。因此，當這種情況下降時，就會產生影響。但我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，工業運動與相對較高成長的市場掛鉤，也有能力產生相對較高的利潤。

Yes. We certainly are targeting it slightly higher growth rate in industrial motion and bearings, but looking to certainly looking to achieve growth in both -- and in addition to the mix issue that Phil highlighted, industrial motion is a little more weighted to Europe and tends to be, at the moment, a tougher geography for us. So that is a little bit of a temporary headwind.

是的。我們的目標當然是在工業運動和軸承方面略高一些的增長率，但希望在這兩個方面都實現增長——除了菲爾強調的混合問題之外，工業運動對歐洲的影響更大一些，並且傾向於在這兩個領域實現成長。所以這是暫時的逆風。

Then I'd also put in -- we continue to diversify the organic mix of the bearing business as well and certainly still off-highway capital equipment is a critical market for the bearing business and is cyclical, but we've diversified more into the aftermarket. GGB was a significant diversification for us. ARB revenue has been strong. So some positives there within the bearing side to point to as well.

然後我還要說——我們也繼續實現軸承業務的有機組合多元化，當然非公路資本設備仍然是軸承業務的關鍵市場，並且是週期性的，但我們已經更加多元化售後市場。GGB 對我們來說是一個重要的多元化。ARB 收入一直強勁。因此，軸承方面也有一些正面的方面。

Yes. And to the long-term margin commentary. In the first half, engineered bearings EBITDA margin averaged about 130 basis points above industrial motion. Given how you view revenue and expected mix in the back half, does that relationship hold? Or does IM have higher margin in the back half?

是的。以及對長期保證金的評論。上半年，工程軸承 EBITDA 利潤率平均比工業運動高出約 130 個基點。鑑於您如何看待下半年的收入和預期組合，這種關係是否成立？還是IM後半部的利潤率比較高？

Yes. I think for the full year, certainly would be a little -- we would expect both segments to be at or above 20% for the year with call it, a tighter delta than what you would have seen in Q1 or Q2. But I would think this year given what's happening in IM with the belt expansion, et cetera, probably industrial motion may be a little bit lower, but they'd be very close to one another.

是的。我認為對於全年來說，肯定會有點——我們預計這兩個細分市場今年的成長率都將達到或超過20%，我們可以稱之為比第一季或第二季更嚴格的增量。但我認為，考慮到今年工業生產中發生的皮帶擴張等情況，工業運動可能會稍微低一些，但它們會非常接近。

Understood. Thanks.

明白了。謝謝。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hi. Good morning. Phil, maybe just on the EBITDA bridge as we think about the back half of the year. Just directionally, I think -- I believe I heard earlier in the comments on pricing for the full year. I think you said you maintained the 50 to 100 basis points of price. I'm just trying to think how to think through that and then kind of the interplay with what you guys are seeing on the manufacturing cost side, the comps have gotten all of screwy just given what's transpired in the past couple of quarters. So just how to think about kind of the relationship between the two and the back half of the year.

你好。早安.Phil，當我們考慮今年下半年時，也許只是在 EBITDA 橋上。我認為只是方向性的——我相信我早些時候聽到了有關全年定價的評論。我想你說過要維持50到100個基點的價格。我只是想思考如何思考這個問題，然後與你們在製造成本方面看到的相互作用，考慮到過去幾個季度發生的事情，比較已經變得非常糟糕。那麼該如何思考兩者之間的關係以及今年下半年的情況。

Sure, Tim and welcome back. I should start with. Sure. On the margins our margins would typically be a little lower in the second half from the first half, just with normal seasonality. And I would say this year, we will be sort of no different. But as we look at the back half, I think a couple of things I keep in mind is, we are going to continue to see a little bit lower sequential volume.

當然，提姆，歡迎回來。我應該從。當然。在利潤方面，我們下半年的利潤率通常會比上半年略低，這只是正常的季節性因素。我想說，今年我們也不會有什麼不同。但當我們看到後半部分時，我認為我要記住的幾件事是，我們將繼續看到連續成交量略有下降。

So you go first half, second half, you got lower volume sequentially. We did -- we were flat to up a little bit on inventory as we move through the first half of the year. We're going to look to take a little bit of inventory out in the second half, which can be a headwind on the manufacturing line. Still seeing -- we will have the ramp costs as the belts expansion continues to ramp. We continue to try to get India launched probably by the beginning of early next year. We will continue to have some ramp costs there.

所以上半場、下半場，成交量依序下降。我們做到了——今年上半年我們的庫存持平甚至略有上升。我們計劃在下半年去除一些庫存，這可能會對生產線造成不利影響。仍然看到 - 隨著輸送帶擴張繼續加速，我們將面臨斜坡成本。我們繼續努力讓印度在明年初推出。我們將繼續在那裡承擔一些坡道成本。

And then I'd say, the overall pricing, we held the guide for pricing, but that's kind of more first half weighted. It is in the run rate. But I would really say that a couple of things to point on as you look first half, second half would be kind of lower sequential sales, lower production volume, logistics kind of started to hit us in the second quarter. We will probably have a little bit of a headwind there, too.

然後我想說，總體定價，我們持有定價指南，但這更多是上半年加權的。它在運行率中。但我真的想說，當你看到上半年和下半年時，有幾件事需要指出，即連續銷售下降、產量下降、物流在第二季度開始對我們造成打擊。我們可能也會在這方面遇到一些阻力。

And then the ongoing operational excellence initiatives that we're going to continue to execute trend offset as much of that as we can. But do expect margins to be down as we look in the third quarter, in particular I talked about the third-quarter revenue. But for EBITDA margins will be down year on year and sequentially. And I think as you look to the fourth quarter, you'll see a similar situation as well.

然後，我們將繼續執行的持續卓越營運計劃將盡可能地抵消趨勢。但從我們第三季的情況來看，預期利潤率將會下降，特別是我談到的第三季營收。但 EBITDA 利潤率將比去年同期下降。我認為當你展望第四季時，你也會看到類似的情況。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you Phil. And then just thinking about the impact on the bearings segment, as you hopefully kind of bottom out on China wind and just thinking about what -- what potential recovery looks like there. Should -- just given the volatility in that business and some, I think a little bit more challenging from a pricing standpoint -- will that impact at all kind of the -- as we come out of it just in terms of kind of the incrementals in that business. I'm just thinking is that -- has there been kind of like a structural reset of the margins of that business, just given the amplitude of the decline? Or is that -- should we not expect that?

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝菲爾。然後想想對軸承產業的影響，就像你希望中國風能觸底反彈一樣，想想那裡的潛在復甦是什麼樣子。考慮到該業務的波動性和一些因素，我認為從定價的角度來看更具挑戰性，這會不會對所有方面產生影響，因為我們只是在增量方面擺脫了它在那項業務中。我只是在想——考慮到下降幅度，該業務的利潤率是否發生了某種結構性重置？或者說──我們不該期待這樣的情況嗎？

Well, I would say, there is certainly been a reset of the volume right? And I think -- I said this in the last call as well, we are also looking at this as an opportunity to come out of this with a better geographic mix and a better mix between OEM and the aftermarket because we haven't been in the market for that long, we are disproportionately weighted to the OEM side.

好吧，我想說，音量肯定被重置了，對吧？我認為- 我在上次電話會議中也說過這一點，我們也將其視為一個機會，通過更好的地理組合以及OEM 和售後市場之間的更好組合來擺脫困境，因為我們還沒有進入市場這麼長時間以來，我們對 OEM 方面的重視不成比例。

And then we really chose to participate primarily in the China market a decade ago, because it was open up versus the other markets were served by existing players, but we penetrated those markets as well. So we expect to put more emphasis into a better geographic mix coming out of it and still remain optimistic that the China market will rebound as well.

然後我們確實在十年前選擇主要參與中國市場，因為它是開放的，而其他市場由現有參與者提供服務，但我們也滲透了這些市場。因此，我們預計將更加重視由此產生的更好的地理組合，並且仍然對中國市場的反彈保持樂觀。

As we said before, the wind margins were kind of in line with the company average and it is still -- we still expect good incrementals coming out of that, have a fair amount of fixed costs associated with that. We've done a good job getting after the variable cost, but no reason to think we wouldn't drop the incrementals through at normal-ish levels.

正如我們之前所說，風電利潤率與公司平均值一致，而且我們仍然預計由此產生良好的增量，並有相當多的與之相關的固定成本。我們在控制可變成本方面做得很好，但沒有理由認為我們不會將增量降到正常水平。

Yes. And I would only add, Tim that when you look at the bearing business, we've talked about this before, it is -- it is more capital intensive. So it does tend to see -- it can see a little bit stronger incrementals on the way up and can kind of have to fight a little bit steeper decrementals on the way down, and we've managed through it very well. But I do think if we are back up next year on the bearing side of the house that we should generate really good incrementals.

是的。提姆，我只想補充一點，當你看軸承業務時，我們之前已經討論過這一點，它是資本密集的。因此，它確實傾向於看到——它可以在上升過程中看到一點更強的增量，並且在下降過程中可能不得不對抗一點更陡峭的減量，我們已經很好地解決了這個問題。但我確實認為，如果我們明年在房屋的承重方面恢復過來，我們應該會產生非常好的增量。

And then last point maybe on China as we have. We did make some investments in China to improve our manufacturing footprint. And I think while volumes are down on the wind side, I think the manufacturing investment has helped us lower cost, which has helped mitigate some of that impact.

最後一點可能是關於中國的。我們確實在中國進行了一些投資，以改善我們的製造足跡。我認為，雖然風電方面的銷售量有所下降，但我認為製造業投資幫助我們降低了成本，這有助於減輕一些影響。

Has the maturity of the products, the technology, the volume as you mentioned, prices have come down in wind, but they have largely been on a gradual downward trajectory since we've been in the market. But so at cost as we and others get better at producing the product and it is relatively new technology. So come back and say we would be optimistic that we would be able to leverage the incremental volume well.

隨著產品、技術、數量的成熟，正如你所提到的，價格已經下降，但自從我們進入市場以來，價格基本上處於逐漸下降的軌道。但隨著我們和其他人在生產產品方面做得更好，並且它是相對較新的技術，成本也是如此。因此，回過頭來說，我們對能夠很好地利用增量交易持樂觀態度。

Got it. Thank you. And Rich, best of luck. Enjoy whatever is next for you. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。還有里奇，祝你好運。享受接下來發生的一切。謝謝。

Mike Shlisky, D.A. Davidson & Co.

麥克‧史利斯基 (Mike Shlisky)，D.A.戴維森公司

Good morning. And thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to quickly touch on off-highway further. Just to touch on off-highway for a moment. I've been hearing a lot of the OEMs are looking to focus on inventories in the back half of the year, trying to bring them down through the fourth quarter. What do you think -- what have they told you about their ability to get to where they want to be by the fourth quarter? What do you think that folks still have some more inventory to take out in the first part of 2025?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想快速接觸非公路。只是暫時接觸一下非公路。我聽說很多原始設備製造商都希望在今年下半年專注於庫存，試圖在第四季度降低庫存。你怎麼看——他們告訴你他們有什麼能力在第四季達到他們想要的目標？您認為 2025 年上半年人們還有更多庫存需要拿出來嗎？

Yes. It varies but on market -- but certainly the one that's got more press here lately would be ag and has been down. For us ag went down last year. So we started feeling that earlier with inventory correction for our part of the game. So our comps as we head into the second half of the year are probably better than what theirs are. So some of the headline numbers that the ag industry is dealing with is probably a little worse than the parts suppliers to it.

是的。但在市場上情況有所不同——但肯定的是，最近在這裡受到更多媒體關注的應該是ag，而且已經下降了。對我們來說，去年農業下降了。因此，我們很早就開始感受到這一點，並針對我們的遊戲部分進行了庫存修正。因此，進入今年下半年，我們的業績可能會比他們的更好。因此，農業產業正在處理的一些總體數據可能比其零件供應商的情況要差一些。

But certainly, there is a level of caution in ag going across the rest of the year. Mining and Construction, probably a little bit better and maybe for us a little more global presence in those two markets as well versus ag a little heavier weighted to the United States. So I'd say overall, it is down. We have it in the high single digits down for the full year that way as well, too early to say where we'll be at for next year.

但可以肯定的是，今年剩餘時間農業產業仍需保持一定程度的謹慎。採礦業和建築業可能會更好一些，對我們來說，這兩個市場的全球影響力可能會比美國的農業重一些。所以我想說，總體而言，它是下降的。這樣，我們全年的業績也將下降到高個位數，現在說明年的業績還為時過早。

Okay. Got it. And then I wanted to ask about the M&A pipeline. Obviously, it seems like it's always good for a couple of deals a year. Give us some thoughts just are you in any late-stage come with any decent size targets here or just some broad view as to what valuations look like and the targets that are out there today.

好的。知道了。然後想問一下併購通路。顯然，一年進行幾筆交易似乎總是有好處的。請給我們一些想法，您是否處於任何後期階段，是否有合適的目標規模，或者只是對估值以及目前的目標有一些廣泛的看法。

Yes. So we had a very active year last year, six deals and one out. We also made a divestiture last year, so a pretty active year last year came into the year with a again, a little higher debt level, but certainly nothing that would prohibit us from doing something in two quarters since we've closed anything.

是的。所以去年我們度過了非常活躍的一年，有六筆交易和一筆交易。去年我們也進行了資產剝離，因此去年是相當活躍的一年，債務水平再次略高，但肯定沒有什麼會阻止我們在兩個季度內採取行動，因為我們已經關閉了任何東西。

It certainly be optimistic that in the next 12 months to 18 months, you would see us, again, as you said, bring in one, two, three small to medium-sized deals, very consistent with the strategy and business leaders remain very engaged in that. So I don't see any reason to pause that with the CEO transition, and we expect to continue to be active over the next either the rest of this year or certainly in the next year.

當然樂觀的是，在接下來的12 個月到18 個月內，您會再次看到我們，正如您所說，帶來一、兩、三筆中小型交易，這些交易與戰略非常一致，而且企業領導人仍然非常積極參與。因此，我認為沒有任何理由在執行長換屆時暫停這項工作，我們預計在今年剩餘時間或明年肯定會繼續保持活躍。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to a comment earlier about logistics costs. So there's been a lot of great discussion on the self-help side, but maybe if you could just talk about your cost basket and generally what you're kind of expecting here in the second half on those costs kind of evolution?

你好。感謝您提出我的問題。只是想回到之前關於物流成本的評論。因此，在自助方面有很多精彩的討論，但也許您可以談談您的成本籃，以及您對下半年這些成本演變的整體預期？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Angel. I would say, yes, that was the one cost that we have seen in flat quite a bit, certainly in the -- starting in the second quarter. and we do expect that to continue for the rest of the year. And quite frankly, when we talk about material and logistics, we sort of entered the year expecting material logistics to be kind of favorable for the year.

是的，當然。謝謝，天使。我想說，是的，這是我們在相當多的情況下看到的一項成本，當然從第二季開始。我們確實預計這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。坦白說，當我們談論材料和物流時，我們進入了這一年，預計材料物流今年將擁有所有利。

And at this point, I would say it is probably more flattish with material favorable, but logistics likely unfavorable for the year, just given where container rates are presently especially coming out of China. But again, that is where in the second quarter and for the rest of the year, some of the self-help operational excellence initiatives are going to come into play because we do believe while versus April, the outlook for logistics has gotten worse, we do believe we'll be able to offset that through the targeted cost actions, the acquisition integration and all the things that we've been working on.

在這一點上，我想說，材料有利，但今年物流可能不利，考慮到目前尤其是來自中國的貨櫃費率，情況可能會更加平穩。但同樣，在第二季度和今年剩餘時間裡，一些自助卓越營運計劃將發揮作用，因為我們確實相信，與四月份相比，物流前景變得更糟，我們確實相信，我們將能夠通過目標成本行動、收購整合以及我們一直在努力的一切來抵消這種影響。

Very helpful. And then back to maybe cash flow, so a very strong kind of cash flow generation here in the second half. And -- but you talked about inventories maybe need work down a little bit. Can you just maybe help quantify that?

非常有幫助。然後回到現金流，下半年會產生非常強勁的現金流。而且 - 但你談到庫存可能需要減少一點。你能幫忙量化一下嗎？

And then as you think about a year next year where you're seeing renewable energy potentially recover and just a little bit of a turning point. Could you just talk about kind of the free cash flow generation and working capital just a little bit more color on all that would be helpful?

然後當你想到明年的時候，你會看到再生能源有可能復甦，而且只是一個轉折點。您能否談談自由現金流的產生和營運資本，對所有這些都會有幫助？

Let me start with just a little bit on the inventory, and I'll let Phil take it to the full cash flow level. As mentioned, we are certainly looking at a step-up from Q4 to Q1 in revenue. So right now, we are targeting a fairly modest inventory reduction between now and the end of the year. You need the inventory more for the start to next year as the year as the year progresses, if we feel a little more bullish on the start of the year as we get to November, December, you might see us a little more cautious on the inventory.

讓我從庫存的一點點開始，然後我會讓菲爾把它帶到完整的現金流水平。如前所述，我們當然希望收入從第四季上升到第一季。因此，目前我們的目標是從現在到年底之間適度減少庫存。隨著時間的推移，明年年初你需要更多的庫存，如果我們在 11 月、12 月的年初感覺更加樂觀一點，你可能會發現我們對存貨。

And if we get a little more pessimistic on the start of next year, you might see us get a little more aggressive this year on the cash flow. But it really is more about the start to next year, which again right now, we would be expecting to see a significant step-up from Q4.

如果我們在明年初變得更加悲觀一些，你可能會看到我們今年在現金流方面變得更加激進一些。但這實際上更多的是明年的開始，現在我們再次期望看到第四季的顯著進步。

Yes. I think Rich hit it. I'd just add, Normally, we'll see that seasonal working capital liquidation, if you will, given that the fourth quarter tends to be the lowest quarter from a revenue standpoint. From a seasonality standpoint, we'll typically see receivables come down seasonally in the second half. We're expecting that.

是的。我認為里奇擊中了它。我想補充一點，通常情況下，如果你願意的話，我們會看到季節性的營運資金清算，因為從收入的角度來看，第四季往往是最低的季度。從季節角度來看，我們通常會看到下半年應收帳款季節性下降。我們期待著這一點。

We probably ended the second quarter with a little bit higher from a day's standpoint, so we should make that up and see that come back in line in the second half, I should say, Rich talked about the inventory. A lot of that does hinge on the fourth quarter and what's happening on the fourth quarter is always a little bit of an unknown, particularly in the shorter cycle part of our business, but we will typically see some inventory come out in the fourth quarter and would not expect anything differently, I would say, this year.

從一天的角度來看，我們可能會在第二季結束時上漲一點，所以我們應該彌補這一點，並看到下半年恢復正常，我應該說，里奇談到了庫存。其中很多確實取決於第四季度，第四季度發生的事情總是有點未知，特別是在我們業務的較短週期部分，但我們通常會看到一些庫存在第四季度出現，我想說，今年不會有什麼不同的期望。

So that is really the main drivers of the offset to that would be we will have those taxes that we'll have to pay in the second half related to the India transaction which will offset that a little bit. But net-net, we'll see cash flow step up significantly in the second half and very supportive of our guide of greater than $350 million for the full year.

因此，這確實是抵消的主要驅動因素，我們將在下半年支付與印度交易相關的稅款，這將抵消一點。但淨淨來看，我們將看到下半年現金流顯著增加，並且非常支持我們全年超過 3.5 億美元的目標。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. And Rich, wish you the best in whatever is there. My first question, so -- and I apologize if you touched on this already. I did go dark for a couple of minutes. I'm curious heavy industries right? You guys have experienced several cycles in the past. Obviously, some of your biggest customers have announced production cuts. How do you see this playing out from a timing standpoint? I know you don't have a crystal ball, but just utilizing your prior experience and how long it could take to get to normal demand patterns for that business going forward?

謝謝。大家早安。Rich，祝你一切順利。我的第一個問題是──如果你已經談到這個問題，我深感抱歉。我確實昏暗了幾分鐘。我很好奇重工業對嗎？你們過去經歷過幾個週期。顯然，你們的一些最大客戶已經宣布減產。從時間的角度來看，您如何看待這種情況的發生？我知道您沒有水晶球，但僅利用您之前的經驗以及需要多長時間才能達到該業務的正常需求模式？

Yes. Sure, Joe. Maybe I will hit them both. I'll hit heavy industries and then also hit off-highway because they are similar in many respects. When we talk about heavy industries, it's typically the big markets like oil and gas, metals, aggregates, cement, pulp and paper, OE activity into those markets.

是的。當然，喬。也許我會打他們兩個。我將重點放在重工業，然後也會關注非公路業，因為它們在許多方面都很相似。當我們談論重工業時，通常是指石油和天然氣、金屬、骨材、水泥、紙漿和造紙等大型市場，以及這些市場的原始設備製造活動。

And we did -- that's typically the late cycle, usually the last sector that slows for us, and we did see some debt we were down in Q2, did see some softening in the order intake rate, which is why we moved it over to the left. That one is always a little bit hard to predict. It's more project spend than it is kind of recurring revenue.

我們確實做到了——這通常是周期的後期，通常是我們最後一個放緩的行業，我們確實看到第二季度的一些債務有所下降，訂單接收率也確實有所放緩，這就是為什麼我們將其轉移到左邊。這總是有點難以預測。項目支出多於經常性收入。

But I would tell you, the MRO side of all that, which generally gets served through distribution continues to roll along. We are seeing continued good activity on the MRO side in markets like metals, oil and gas, pulp and paper, aggregates, cement.

但我要告訴你的是，MRO 方面通常透過分銷來提供服務，並將繼續發展。我們看到金屬、石油和天然氣、紙漿和造紙、骨材、水泥等市場的 MRO 活動持續良好。

Now on off-highway, which is more of the recurring revenue -- as Rich said, we started to decline in off-highway kind of the middle of last year. So we're sort of one year into destockings/lower demand levels. We are expecting that to continue into the second half. And then by the end of the year, we will have been down in those markets, in particular, probably seven quarters, which is -- would be pretty normal, maybe arguably on the long end of normal.

現在在非公路方面，這更多的是經常性收入——正如里奇所說，我們從去年年中開始在非公路方面出現下降。因此，我們已經進入去庫存/降低需求水準一年了。我們預計這種情況將持續到下半年。然後到今年年底，我們的市場將出現下滑，特別是可能七個季度，這將是相當正常的，也許可以說是長期正常的情況。

So it is hard to predict. It's very dependent on interest rates and the overall economic situation, if you will, but we do feel like these markets have been depressed for quite some time, and we are in a good position, I think, to step up next year.

所以很難預測。如果你願意的話，這很大程度上取決於利率和整體經濟形勢，但我們確實覺得這些市場已經低迷相當長一段時間了，我認為，我們處於有利位置，可以在明年有所進步。

Got it. That's helpful, Phil. And I guess, look, we've danced around the margin question a little bit for next year at this point, just because there are a lot of moving pieces that are impacting margins this year. So let's say we get back to a more normal environment where it's more like 3%, 4%, 5% type growth for your businesses. Should you -- based on everything that's transpired this year, would you expect incremental margins to be above normal? Like how do we think about the right jumping off point from this year into next year on the incrementals?

知道了。這很有幫助，菲爾。我想，看，我們現在已經圍繞著明年的利潤率問題進行了一些討論，只是因為今年有很多變化因素影響了利潤率。假設我們回到了一個更正常的環境，您的企業的成長速度更像是 3%、4%、5%。根據今年發生的一切，您是否應該預期增量利潤率將高於正常水平？例如我們如何考慮從今年到明年增量的正確起點？

Yes. It's probably a little bit early. But again, I think we're still committed to the long-term targets. So I think if we're or up next year, we would expect to make -- to take another step on that margin path to get us to average 20 over a cycle, not just at the top of the cycle, which would say we've got a we've got to be above that at peak and hold on at the trough. So I'd expect to take another step up, but probably too early to talk specifically about it.

是的。可能有點早了。但我再次強調，我們仍然致力於實現長期目標。因此，我認為，如果我們明年的表現或上升，我們預計將在利潤率道路上再邁出一步，使我們在一個週期內平均達到 20，而不僅僅是在周期的頂部，這意味著我們我們必須在高峰時超越這個水平，並在低谷時堅持下去。因此，我希望能再邁出一步，但具體談論它可能還為時過早。

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，夥計們。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital.

克里斯·丹克特，Loop Capital。

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in, guys. I guess I will just keep it to one here. Again India has been really impressive this year in terms of growth. I guess, maybe just conceptually, as you kind of look at the markets inside of India, would you expect there's some durability of their legs there into '25 and beyond? Or is there some risk that India risk looking kind of like China wind as we move into '25, '26 and beyond there?

你好。謝謝你們把我擠進去，夥計們。我想我只會在這裡保留它。印度今年的成長再次令人印象深刻。我想，也許只是從概念上來說，當你觀察印度國內的市場時，你會期望他們的腿在 25 年及以後有一定的耐用性嗎？或者，當我們進入「25」、「26」及更遠的時期時，印度是否有可能看起來有點像中國風？

I think there is reason for both short and long-term optimism there. Short term, there's good momentum longer term. I think India is a beneficiary of some of the diversification that companies are looking with their global supply chains not to have overweighted to China or any other geography and India is a beneficiary of that. And I think it is fairly broad based in -- across industrial markets. So I think there is reason for optimism and for the foreseeable future.

我認為短期和長期樂觀都有理由。短期來看，長期來看勢頭良好。我認為印度是一些多元化的受益者，公司正在尋求其全球供應鏈，不要過度重視中國或任何其他地區，而印度就是其中的受益者。我認為它在整個工業市場中都有相當廣泛的基礎。所以我認為有理由對可預見的未來感到樂觀。

Those are all the questions we have time for today. Sir, do you have any final comments or remarks?

這些就是我們今天有時間討論的所有問題。先生，您最後還有什麼意見或評論嗎？

Thank you, Emily. As this is my last quarterly call as CEO, I wanted to thank the investment community for their support over the last decade and, in particular, those of you that have invested in the company over that time. Those of you that have followed Timken for a couple of decades have witnessed a dramatic transformation in this 125-year-old industrial company. It was a privilege for me to be a part of it for the last 19 years and both very proud of what we've achieved during my tenure and also very confident that the company will continue to prosper after I transition out of my leadership role.

謝謝你，艾米麗。由於這是我作為執行長的最後一個季度電話會議，我想感謝投資界在過去十年中的支持，特別是那些在這段時間裡對公司進行投資的人。那些關注鐵姆肯公司幾十年的人見證了這家擁有 125 年歷史的工業公司的巨大轉變。在過去的 19 年裡，我很榮幸能成為公司的一員，並對我在任期內取得的成就感到非常自豪，也對我卸任領導職務後公司將繼續繁榮充滿信心。

We have a great group of employees around the world. The company has been performing at both a high and consistent level for many years. Our portfolio is strong, and I look forward to supporting Tarak and the 19,000 employees at Timken achieve new heights for shareholders, customers and employees in the years to come.

我們在世界各地擁有一支優秀的員工團隊。該公司多年來一直保持著高水準且穩定的表現。我們的產品組合非常強大，我期待支持 Tarak 和鐵姆肯公司的 19,000 名員工在未來幾年為股東、客戶和員工實現新的高度。

Thanks, and back to you, Neil.

謝謝，然後回到你，尼爾。

Thanks, Rich, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me. Thank you, and this concludes our call.

謝謝里奇，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您在今天的通話後還有任何疑問，請與我聯絡。謝謝您，我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for participating in today's Timken's second-quarter earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天鐵姆肯公司第二季財報發布電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。