Truist Financial Corp (TFC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Truist Financial Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）正式示範之後將進行簡短的問答環節。提醒一下，此事件正在被記錄。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brad Milsaps.

現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的東道主布拉德·米爾薩普斯先生。

Thank you, Rocco, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; and our CFO, Mike Maguire. During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's fourth quarter results, share their perspectives on current business conditions and provide an updated outlook for 2024.

謝謝羅科，大家早安。歡迎參加 Truist 的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長比爾羅傑斯 (Bill Rogers)；和我們的財務長麥克·馬奎爾。在今天上午的電話會議中，他們將討論 Truist 第四季業績，分享對當前業務狀況的看法，並提供 2024 年的最新展望。

Clarke Starnes, our Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer; Beau Cummins, our Vice Chair and Chief Operating Officer; Dontá Wilson, Chief Consumer and Small Business Banking Officer; and John Howard, Truist Insurance Holdings' Chairman and CEO, are also in attendance and available to participate in the Q&A portion of our call.

Clarke Starnes，我們的副主席兼首席風險長； Beau Cummins，我們的副主席兼營運長； Dontá Wilson，首席消費者與小型企業銀行業務長； Truist Insurance Holdings 董事長兼執行長 John Howard 也出席了會議，並可以參加我們電話會議的問答部分。

The accompanying presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist investor relations website, ir.truist.com. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review these disclosures on Slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for appropriate reconciliations to GAAP.

隨附的簡報以及我們的收益發布和補充財務資訊可在 Truist 投資者關係網站 ir.truist.com 上取得。我們今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述和某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請查看投影片 2 和 3 中關於這些聲明和措施的揭露以及附錄，以根據 GAAP 進行適當調整。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

有了這個，我會把它交給比爾。

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call today. Before we discuss our fourth quarter results, let's begin with our purpose on Slide 4. As you know, Truist is a purpose-driven company committed to inspiring and building better lives and communities. I'd like to take just a few moments to highlight some of the ways we demonstrated our purpose during 2023.

謝謝布拉德，大家早安，謝謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。在討論第四季業績之前，讓我們先從投影片 4 上的目標開始。如您所知，Truist 是一家以目標為導向的公司，致力於激勵和建立更美好的生活和社區。我想花一點時間重點介紹我們在 2023 年展示我們目標的一些方式。

Through Truist Community Capital, we committed nearly $2.1 billion to support more than 15,000 units of affordable housing. This helped create more than 15,000 jobs and served more than 130,000 people in low and moderate-income communities this year. Also, our teammates impacted 5,300 organizations and causes through their charitable giving and more than 62,000 hours of volunteer service.

透過 Truist Community Capital，我們投入了近 21 億美元來支持超過 15,000 套經濟適用房。今年，這有助於創造了超過 15,000 個就業崗位，並為中低收入社區超過 13 萬人提供服務。此外，我們的團隊成員透過慈善捐款和超過 62,000 小時的志工服務影響了 5,300 個組織和事業。

In addition, we started a small business community heroes initiative, which empowers our branch teammates alongside our virtual small business specialists, leveraging our digital solutions to proactively connect via caring conversations with small business owners who tirelessly work to serve our neighbors, create jobs, build our communities and help drive our economy. So those are just a few examples of the meaningful work we're doing as a company to have a positive impact on the lives of our clients, our teammates, our communities, and our shareholders as we work to realize our purpose.

此外，我們啟動了一項小型企業社區英雄計劃，該計劃使我們的分行團隊成員與我們的虛擬小型企業專家一起，利用我們的數位解決方案，透過關懷對話主動與小型企業主建立聯繫，他們不知疲倦地努力為我們的鄰居服務、創造就業機會、建立我們的社區並幫助推動我們的經濟。這些只是我們作為一家公司所做的有意義的工作的幾個例子，我們在努力實現我們的目標時，對我們的客戶、我們的團隊成員、我們的社區和我們的股東的生活產生積極的影響。

All right. So let's turn to some of the key takeaways on Slide 6. Truist reported solid fourth quarter results -- adjusted earnings after excluding several discrete items that impacted our results. The largest of these items, of course, is a $6.1 billion goodwill impairment charge. Mike is going to provide more details later in our call, but this was the result of our annual impairment test, which we conduct each year as of October 1. So importantly, this charge is noncash. It has no impact on our liquidity, regulatory capital ratios, the payment of our common dividend or our ability to do business and serve our clients.

好的。因此，讓我們轉向投影片 6 中的一些關鍵要點。Truist 報告了穩健的第四季度業績——在排除影響我們業績的幾個離散項目後調整後的收益。當然，其中最大的項目是 61 億美元的商譽減損費用。麥克稍後將在我們的電話會議中提供更多詳細信息，但這是我們每年 10 月 1 日進行的年度減值測試的結果。因此重要的是，這筆費用是非現金的。它對我們的流動性、監管資本比率、普通股息的支付或我們開展業務和服務客戶的能力沒有影響。

On an adjusted basis, we reported net income of $1.1 billion or $0.81 a share, which excludes the impact of the impairment charge, the industry-wide FDIC special assessment and a discrete tax benefit. In addition, pretax merger-related and restructuring charges of $183 million negatively impacted adjusted EPS by $0.10 per share. Most of these charges were related to our cost saving plan.

在調整後的基礎上，我們公佈的淨利潤為 11 億美元，即每股 0.81 美元，其中不包括減損費用、全行業 FDIC 特別評估和離散稅收優惠的影響。此外，1.83 億美元的稅前合併相關和重組費用對調整後每股盈餘產生了 0.10 美元的負面影響。這些費用大部分與我們的成本節約計劃有關。

Despite these discrete items in the quarter, we're pleased with our underlying results. As you can see on the slide, our solid performance was defined by several key themes. First, we made strong progress on our organization simplification plan during this quarter. Since these initiatives were announced in mid-September, we've reduced headcount, realigned significant elements of our organizational structure to improve efficiency and to drive revenue opportunities in 2024 and beyond.

儘管本季存在這些離散項目，但我們對我們的基本結果感到滿意。正如您在投影片上看到的，我們的穩健表現是由幾個關鍵主題決定的。首先，本季我們的組織簡化計劃取得了重大進展。自 9 月中旬宣布這些措施以來，我們減少了員工人數，重新調整了組織結構的重要組成部分，以提高效率並推動 2024 年及以後的收入機會。

As a result of these efforts and others through 2023, the fourth quarter marked the second consecutive quarter we've seen our expenses decline. Although the first quarter will experience typical seasonal expense headwinds, we're on track and fully committed to delivering on the cost initiatives that we outlined in September, which will limit adjusted expense growth to flat to up to 1% in 2024 while also continuing to invest in initiatives for our core clients, technology and risk management. Although asset quality is normalizing off historically low levels, we're encouraged that nonperforming loans declined during the quarter while we continue to build our loan loss reserve considering the uncertain economic environment.

由於這些努力和其他努力，到 2023 年，第四季標誌著我們的支出連續第二季下降。儘管第一季將經歷典型的季節性費用逆風，但我們正在步入正軌並完全致力於實現我們在9 月概述的成本計劃，這將把調整後的費用增長限制在2024 年持平至1%，同時持續投資於我們的核心客戶、技術和風險管理的措施。儘管資產品質正從歷史低點恢復正常，但考慮到不確定的經濟環境，我們繼續建立貸款損失準備金，本季不良貸款有所下降，這令我們感到鼓舞。

Consistent with our capital planning strategy, our CET1 ratio increased 20 basis points sequentially to 10.1. Although we're committed to building capital, our balance sheet also remains open to core clients as our primary capital priorities are supporting the financial needs of new and existing clients and the payment of our common dividend.

與我們的資本規劃策略一致，我們的 CET1 比率連續上升 20 個基點至 10.1。儘管我們致力於累積資本，但我們的資產負債表仍然對核心客戶開放，因為我們的主要資本優先事項是支持新客戶和現有客戶的財務需求以及支付我們的普通股息。

So before I hand the call over to Mike to discuss our financial performance in more detail, let me provide a quick update on our progress we're making on improving the experience for our clients. We'll do that on Slide 7. Truist continues to see improved digital engagement trends with strong transaction growth over the last year. Mobile app users grew 9% versus the fourth quarter of 2022, which is contributing to increased transaction volumes, which now account for 62% of total bank transactions.

因此，在我將電話轉交給麥克以更詳細地討論我們的財務表現之前，讓我快速介紹一下我們在改善客戶體驗方面所取得的進展。我們將在幻燈片 7 上做到這一點。Truist 繼續看到數位參與趨勢的改善以及去年交易的強勁增長。與 2022 年第四季相比，行動應用用戶成長了 9%，這促進了交易量的增加，目前交易量佔銀行交易總額的 62%。

As shown on the chart on the left, growth in digital transactions is primarily reflected by increased Zelle usage as clients continue to value efficient payment and money movement capabilities. And while this is certainly positive, Truist still has a meaningful opportunity to shift the transaction mix even more towards digital, specifically by leveraging our T3 strategy, which is the concept that touch and technology work together to create trust that further enhances the client experience and drives greater digital adoption and efficiency. Our goal is to create seamless experiences for our clients by offering more self-service capabilities to enhance the overall client experience.

如左圖所示，數位交易的成長主要體現在 Zelle 使用量的增加，因為客戶持續重視高效率的支付和資金流動能力。雖然這肯定是積極的，但 Truist 仍然有一個有意義的機會，可以將交易組合進一步轉向數位化，特別是透過利用我們的 T3 策略，該策略是觸控和技術共同創造信任，從而進一步增強客戶體驗和推動更高的數位化採用和效率。我們的目標是透過提供更多自助服務功能來增強整體客戶體驗，為客戶創造無縫體驗。

Truist Assist is a perfect example of this concept. Since launching in 2022, we've seen increased client adoption, with 1/3 of the total interactions represented in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone. Additionally, 85% of the conversations were completed using the automated assistant this quarter. As we look into 2024, we expect accelerated adoption of Truist Assist, which should lead to additional operational efficiencies for Truist.

Truist Assist 是這個概念的完美範例。自 2022 年推出以來，我們看到客戶採用率增加，僅 2023 年第四季就佔總互動量的 1/3。此外，本季 85% 的對話是使用自動助理完成的。展望 2024 年，我們預期 Truist Assist 的採用將加速，這將提高 Truist 的營運效率。

So overall, I'm pleased with the digital progress we've made in 2023 and excited about the opportunity to further leverage Q3 and 2024 and beyond that. So let me turn it over to Mike to discuss our financial results in a little more detail. Mike?

總的來說，我對我們在 2023 年取得的數位化進展感到滿意，並對有機會進一步利用第三季和 2024 年及以後的機會感到興奮。因此，讓我將其轉交給麥克，更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。麥克風？

Great. Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, we reported a GAAP net loss of $5.2 billion or $3.85 per share. As Bill noted, reported earnings per share were impacted by several items detailed at the top of Slide 8. Those include a noncash goodwill impairment charge of $6.1 billion, a special FDIC assessment of $507 million and a discrete tax benefit of $204 million.

偉大的。謝謝你，比爾，大家早安。我們報告的本季 GAAP 淨虧損為 52 億美元，即每股 3.85 美元。正如比爾所指出的那樣，報告的每股收益受到幻燈片8 頂部詳述的幾個項目的影響。其中包括61 億美元的非現金商譽減損費用、5.07 億美元的FDIC 特別評估和2.04 億美元的離散稅收優惠。

Excluding these 3 items, adjusted net income was $1.1 billion or $0.81 per share. In addition, merger-related and restructuring charges, primarily related to severance and branch consolidation associated with our cost saves initiatives, negatively impacted EPS by another $0.10.

排除這 3 項，調整後淨利為 11 億美元，即每股 0.81 美元。此外，與合併相關和重組的費用（主要與與我們的成本節約計劃相關的遣散費和分支機構合併相關）對 EPS 造成了 0.10 美元的負面影響。

Before providing further details on this quarter's underlying financial performance, I do want to provide some additional background on the goodwill impairment charge that occurred during the quarter. We test our goodwill for impairment annually on October 1. This year's test resulted in an impairment of $6.1 billion.

在提供有關本季度基本財務業績的進一步詳細資訊之前，我確實想提供有關本季度發生的商譽減損費用的一些額外背景資訊。我們每年 10 月 1 日對商譽進行減損測試。今年的測試結果為 61 億美元。

The impairment was primarily driven by the continued impact of higher interest rates and higher discount rates and a sustained decline in banking industry share prices, including Truist share price. Importantly, as Bill noted in his opening remarks, this is a noncash charge and has no impact on our liquidity, no impact on our regulatory capital ratios, our ability to pay our common stock dividend or to serve the needs of our clients.

減損主要是由於利率和折現率上升的持續影響以及包括Truist股價在內的銀行業股價持續下跌所致。重要的是，正如比爾在開場白中指出的那樣，這是一項非現金費用，對我們的流動性沒有影響，對我們的監管資本比率、我們支付普通股股息或滿足客戶需求的能力沒有影響。

Moving on to the results for the quarter. Total revenue increased 50 basis points sequentially due to a more modest decline in net interest income than expected. Adjusted expenses declined 4.5% or 5.2%, if excluding the impact of TIH independence readiness costs. Our net interest margin improved 3 basis points to 2.98% during the quarter.

接下來是本季的業績。由於淨利息收入降幅較預期小，總收入較上季成長 50 個基點。如果排除 TIH 獨立準備成本的影響，調整後費用下降 4.5% 或 5.2%。本季我們的淨利差提高了 3 個基點，達到 2.98%。

We added 20 basis points of CET1 capital in the quarter and increased our ALLL ratio by 5 basis points in light of ongoing economic uncertainty. Finally, our tangible book value per share increased 13% on a linked quarter basis due primarily to the impact of lower interest rates on the value of our available-for-sale investment portfolio.

鑑於持續的經濟不確定性，我們在本季度增加了 20 個基點的 CET1 資本，並將 ALLL 比率提高了 5 個基點。最後，我們的每股有形帳面價值較上季成長了 13%，這主要是由於利率下降對我們可供出售投資組合價值的影響。

Next, we'll turn to Page 9 to cover loans and leases. Average loans decreased 1.7% sequentially, reflecting our ongoing balance sheet optimization efforts and overall weaker client demand. Average commercial loans decreased 1.8%, primarily due to a 2.3% decrease in C&I balances primarily due to lower client demand.

接下來，我們將翻到第 9 頁討論貸款和租賃。平均貸款季減 1.7%，反映出我們正在進行的資產負債表優化工作和整體客戶需求疲軟。平均商業貸款下降 1.8%，主要是由於客戶需求下降導致 C&I 餘額下降 2.3%。

In our consumer portfolio, average loans decreased 1.8% primarily due to further reductions in indirect auto and mortgage. Overall, we expect average commercial and consumer balances decline modestly in the first quarter driven by our ongoing mix shift toward deeper client relationships, deemphasizing lower return portfolios and the effects of continued economic uncertainty.

在我們的消費者投資組合中，平均貸款下降了 1.8%，主要是由於間接汽車和抵押貸款的進一步減少。總體而言，我們預計第一季平均商業和消費者餘額將小幅下降，原因是我們持續向更深層的客戶關係轉變，淡化了較低迴報的投資組合和持續的經濟不確定性的影響。

Moving now to deposit trends on Slide 10. Average deposits decreased 1.4% sequentially as growth in time deposits and interest checking was more than offset by declines in noninterest-bearing and money market balances. Noninterest-bearing deposits decreased 3.7% and represented 29% of total deposits compared to 30% in the third quarter and 34% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的存款趨勢。平均存款環比下降 1.4%，因為定期存款和利息支票的增長被無息和貨幣市場餘額的下降所抵消。無利息存款下降 3.7%，佔存款總額的 29%，而 2022 年第三季為 30%，第四季為 34%。

During the quarter, consumers continued to seek higher rate alternatives, which drove an increase in deposit costs, albeit at a slower pace relative to recent periods. Typically, total deposit costs increased 9 basis points sequentially to 1.90%, down from a 30 basis point increase in the prior quarter, which resulted in just a 100 basis point increase to our cumulative total deposit beta to 36%.

本季度，消費者繼續尋求利率更高的替代方案，這推動了存款成本的增加，儘管成長速度較近期有所放緩。通常情況下，總存款成本連續增加 9 個基點，達到 1.90%，低於上一季 30 個基點的增幅，這導致我們的累計總存款貝塔係數僅增加 100 個基點，達到 36%。

Similarly, interest-bearing deposit costs increased 10 basis points sequentially to 2.67%, down from a 38 basis point increase in the prior quarter, which also resulted in a 100 basis point increase to our cumulative total interest-bearing deposit beta to 50%. Going forward, we will continue to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on core relationships, staying attentive to client needs and striving to maximize the value we can add to relationships outside of rate pay.

同樣，計息存款成本環比增長 10 個基點，至 2.67%，低於上一季 38 個基點的增幅，這也導致我們的累計計息存款貝塔係數增加 100 個基點，達到 50%。展望未來，我們將繼續保持平衡的態度，專注於核心關係，專注於客戶需求，並努力最大化我們可以為薪資以外的關係增加的價值。

Moving to net interest income and net interest margin on Slide 11. For the quarter, taxable equivalent net interest income decreased by 0.6% linked-quarter due to lower average earning assets and higher rate paid on deposits partially offset by favorable hedge income. Reported net interest margin improved 3 basis points on a linked basis quarter. While net interest margin expanded in each of the last 2 quarters, we expect it to contract in the first quarter due to an increase in rate paid on deposits, partially offset by continued improvement in spreads on new and renewed loans.

轉向投影片 11 上的淨利息收入和淨利差。本季度，應稅等值淨利息收入環比下降 0.6%，原因是平均生息資產下降和存款利率上升，部分被有利的對沖收入所抵消。報告的淨利差較上一季提高了 3 個基點。雖然淨利差在過去兩個季度均有所擴大，但我們預計，由於存款利率上升，淨利差將在第一季收縮，部分被新貸款和續簽貸款利差的持續改善所抵消。

Turning to noninterest income on Slide 12. Fee income increased $47 million or 2.2% relative to the third quarter. The linked-quarter increase was primarily attributable to higher service charges on deposits, which were up $76 million in the fourth quarter, due primarily to the third quarter being impacted by $87 million of client refunds.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的非利息收入。費用收入較第三季增加 4,700 萬美元，即 2.2%。環比增長主要是由於存款服務費增加，第四季度增加了 7,600 萬美元，主要是由於第三季受到 8,700 萬美元客戶退款的影響。

Lending-related fees increased $51 million linked-quarter due to higher leasing related gains, and other fees declined $66 million due to lower equity income. Fee income was down 3.2% on a like-quarter basis as lower investment banking and trading, deposit service charges, mortgage banking and other income were partially offset with higher insurance income and higher lending-related fees.

由於租賃相關收益增加，貸款相關費用環比增加了 5,100 萬美元，而由於股權收入減少，其他費用減少了 6,600 萬美元。費用收入環比下降 3.2%，原因是投資銀行和交易、存款服務費、抵押貸款銀行和其他收入的下降被保險收入和貸款相關費用的上升部分抵消。

Next, I'll cover noninterest expense on Slide 13. GAAP expenses of $10.3 billion increased $6.5 billion linked-quarter due primarily to the previously mentioned $6.1 billion goodwill impairment charge, the $507 million FDIC special assessment and a $108 million increase in merger-related and restructuring expense, partially offset by a $183 million decline in personnel costs. Excluding these items and the impact of intangible amortization, adjusted noninterest expense declined 4.5% sequentially or 5.2% excluding the impact of $33 million of TIH independence readiness costs.

接下來，我將在投影片13 中介紹非利息費用。GAAP 費用為103 億美元，季增65 億美元，主要是由於前面提到的61 億美元商譽減損費用、5.07 億美元的FDIC 特別評估以及與合併相關的費用增加1.08 億美元。重組費用，部分被人事成本下降 1.83 億美元所抵銷。排除這些項目和無形攤銷的影響，調整後的非利息費用較上季下降 4.5%，排除 TIH 獨立準備成本 3,300 萬美元的影響則下降 5.2%。

The decrease in adjusted expense was driven by lower personnel expense due to the execution of our cost savings program, resulting in headcount reductions as well as lower incentive compensation to reflect our performance in 2023. These improvements were partially offset with higher professional and outside processing expenses. Adjusted noninterest expenses were essentially flat on a like-quarter basis.

調整後費用的減少是由於執行成本節約計劃導致人員費用減少，導致員工人數減少以及激勵薪酬降低，以反映我們 2023 年的業績。這些改進部分被專業和外部處理費用的增加所抵消。調整後的非利息支出與同季基本持平。

As Bill mentioned, we are pleased with the progress that we've made on the cost savings initiative that we announced in September. Our original goal was to eliminate or avoid expenses of approximately $750 million over a 12- to 18-month period, which would help us manage our expense growth in 2024 to flat to up 1%. The largest category of savings targeted in our plan was a reduction in force, driven by a company-wide assessment of spans and layers of management, the elimination of redundant functions and the restructuring of certain business lines. We've made significant progress here. FTEs are down 4% from June 30 to December 31, with the final set of reductions underway in the first quarter.

正如 Bill 所提到的，我們對 9 月宣布的成本節約計畫所取得的進展感到高興。我們最初的目標是在 12 至 18 個月期間消除或避免約 7.5 億美元的費用，這將幫助我們將 2024 年的費用成長控制在持平至 1% 的水平。我們計劃中最大的目標節省類別是裁員，這是由對全公司管理跨度和層級的評估、消除冗餘職能和重組某些業務線所推動的。我們在這裡取得了重大進展。從 6 月 30 日到 12 月 31 日，FTE 下降了 4%，最後一輪削減將在第一季進行。

The second category we highlighted included cost savings opportunities that will be driven by organizational simplification. Examples include reimagining our go-to-market strategy in CRE, simplifying our benefits programs and rightsizing our branch network and related staffing. As part of these efforts, we anticipate reducing the size of our branch footprint by nearly 4% during the first half of 2024.

我們強調的第二類包括透過組織簡化所推動的成本節約機會。例如，重新構想我們在商業房地產領域的進入市場策略、簡化我們的福利計劃以及調整我們的分支機構網路和相關人員配置。作為這些努力的一部分，我們預計在 2024 年上半年將分公司規模減少近 4%。

In addition to lowering headcount and simplifying our organization, we also reexamined our technology investment spend. Through this process, we have rationalized, rescoped or delayed the start of a number of projects primarily in noncore areas. We estimated restructuring costs related to this initiative to be approximately $225 million or 30% of our initial $750 million goal. So far, we have incurred around $200 million of charges related to the program, mostly driven by reductions in force in the facilities-related decisions. We would expect to recognize the bulk of the remaining costs in the first quarter.

除了減少員工數量和簡化組織之外，我們還重新審視了我們的技術投資支出。透過這個過程，我們對主要在非核心領域的一些項目進行了合理化、重新調整或推遲了啟動。我們估計與該計劃相關的重組成本約為 2.25 億美元，占我們最初 7.5 億美元目標的 30%。到目前為止，我們已經產生了約 2 億美元的與該計劃相關的費用，主要是由於設施相關決策的力度減少所致。我們預計將在第一季確認大部分剩餘成本。

It's clear to state here that the work is never done, and we continue to assertively manage costs. But we feel confident that we will achieve our flat to up 1% expense target for 2024.

在此明確指出，工作永遠不會完成，我們將繼續積極管理成本。但我們有信心實現 2024 年費用持平至成長 1% 的目標。

Okay. Moving on to asset quality on Slide 14. Asset quality metrics continued to normalize in the fourth quarter but overall, remain manageable. Nonperforming loans declined 6% linked-quarter, while early-stage delinquencies increased 11 basis points sequentially due to an increase in 30- to 89-day past due consumer and C&I loans. Included in our appendix is an updated data on our office portfolio, which represents 1.7% of total loans. We are pleased that nonperforming and criticized and classified office loans decreased modestly linked-quarter, while we increased the reserve on this portfolio from 8.3% at September 30 to 8.5% at year-end.

好的。接下來是投影片 14 上的資產品質。資產品質指標在第四季繼續正常化，但總體而言仍處於可控狀態。不良貸款較上季下降 6%，而由於逾期 30 天至 89 天的消費者和工商業貸款增加，早期拖欠率較上季增加 11 個基點。我們的附錄中包含了我們辦公大樓投資組合的最新數據，佔貸款總額的 1.7%。我們很高興看到不良、批評和分類辦公貸款環比小幅下降，同時我們將該投資組合的準備金從 9 月 30 日的 8.3% 增加到年底的 8.5%。

During the quarter, our net charge-off ratio increased 6 basis points to 57 basis points. The increase in net charge-offs for the quarter reflects increases in our other consumer, indirect auto and C&I lending portfolios, partially offset by lower CRE losses. We continue to build reserves as provision expense exceeded net charge-offs by $119 million.

本季度，我們的淨核銷率增加了 6 個基點，達到 57 個基點。本季淨沖銷的增加反映了我們其他消費者、間接汽車和工商業貸款組合的增加，部分被商業房地產損失的減少所抵消。我們繼續建立準備金，撥備費用超過淨沖銷 1.19 億美元。

Our ALLL ratio increased to 1.54%, up 5 basis points sequentially and 20 basis points year-over-year, due to ongoing credit normalization and greater economic uncertainty. Consistent with our commentary last quarter, we've tightened our risk appetite in select areas, though we remain -- maintain our through-the-cycle supportive approach for high-quality, long-term clients.

由於持續的信貸正常化和更大的經濟不確定性，我們的 ALLL 比率升至 1.54%，環比上升 5 個基點，比去年同期上升 20 個基點。與我們上季度的評論一致，我們收緊了特定領域的風險偏好，但我們仍然維持對高品質長期客戶的整個週期支援方法。

Turning now to capital on Slide 15. Truist added 20 basis points of CET1 capital in the fourth quarter through a combination of organic capital generation, disciplined RWA management and this quarter's tax benefit, partially offset by the FDIC special assessment. With a CET1 ratio of 10.1%, Truist remains well capitalized relative to our minimum regulatory requirement of 7.4% that became effective on October 1.

現在轉向幻燈片 15 上的資本。Truist 透過有機資本產生、嚴格的 RWA 管理和本季度的稅收優惠相結合，在第四季度增加了 20 個基點的 CET1 資本，部分被 FDIC 特別評估所抵消。 Truist 的 CET1 比率為 10.1%，相對於 10 月 1 日生效的 7.4% 的最低監管要求，資本充足。

We remain committed to building capital and do not have plans to repurchase shares over the near term. We continue to be disciplined with our RWA management strategy as we allocate less capital to certain businesses, though we have been clear that our balance sheet remains open to core clients. Our primary capital priorities are supporting the financial needs of new and existing core clients as well as the payment of our $0.52 per share quarterly dividend.

我們仍然致力於累積資本，短期內沒有回購股票的計畫。儘管我們明確表示我們的資產負債表仍然對核心客戶開放，但我們繼續遵守 RWA 管理策略，減少向某些業務分配的資本。我們的主要資本優先事項是支持新舊核心客戶的財務需求以及支付每股 0.52 美元的季度股息。

In addition, we continue to believe that Truist's capital flexibility with Truist Insurance Holdings is a distinctive advantage. We estimate that our residual 80% ownership stake provides greater than 200 basis points of additional capital flexibility, and we continue to evaluate our strategic options with respect to TIH.

此外，我們仍然認為 Truist 與 Truist Insurance Holdings 的資本彈性是一個獨特的優勢。我們估計，我們剩餘的 80% 股權可以提供超過 200 個基點的額外資本彈性，並且我們將繼續評估我們對 TIH 的策略選擇。

The table in the center of the slide provides an updated analysis of our AOCI at year-end. During the fourth quarter, the component of AOCI attributable to securities declined from $13.5 billion to $11.1 billion or by $2.4 billion due to the decline in long-term interest rates during the quarter and finished 2023 essentially flat when compared to year-end 2022. AOCI related to our pension plan improved from $1.5 billion to $1.1 billion, which is a level that will remain static throughout 2024. Based on estimated cash flows in today's forward curve, we would expect the component of AOCI attributable to securities to decline from $11.1 billion at the end of the fourth quarter to $8 billion by the end of 2026 or by approximately 28%.

幻燈片中央的表格提供了我們年底 AOCI 的最新分析。第四季度，由於本季長期利率下降，AOCI 歸屬於證券的部分從 135 億美元下降至 111 億美元，即減少了 24 億美元，2023 年末與 2022 年底基本持平。與我們的退休金計畫相關的支出從15 億美元提高到11 億美元，這一水準將在2024 年保持不變。根據今天遠期曲線中的估計現金流量，我們預計AOCI 中可歸屬證券的部分將從111 億美元下降到2024 年。到 2026 年底，第四季末將達到 80 億美元，增幅約 28%。

We continue to feel confident in our ability to meet the requirements and build capital under the proposed phase-in periods based on our assessment of the proposed capital rules. We have refined our estimate for the impact to risk-weighted assets under Basel III and now expect a mid-single-digit increase in risk-weighted assets compared to our previous estimate of a high single-digit increase.

根據我們對擬議資本規則的評估，我們仍然對我們在擬議分階段期間滿足要求和建立資本的能力充滿信心。我們改進了《巴塞爾協議 III》對風險加權資產影響的估計，現在預計風險加權資產將出現中個位數成長，而我們先前的估計是高個位數成長。

Finally, as it relates to the proposed rules for a long-term debt requirement, we estimate that Truist's binding constraint is at the bank level and that the shortfall is approximately $12 billion. We remain confident that we will be able to meet the proposed requirement at both the bank and the holding company level through normal debt issuance during the phase-in period. As part of our regular way funding plan, we issued $1.75 billion of long-term debt during the fourth quarter of 2023.

最後，由於它涉及長期債務要求的擬議規則，我們估計 Truist 的約束約束是在銀行層面，缺口約為 120 億美元。我們仍然有信心，在分階段期間，我們將能夠透過正常的債務發行來滿足銀行和控股公司層面的擬議要求。作為我們常規融資計劃的一部分，我們在 2023 年第四季發行了 17.5 億美元的長期債務。

All right. I'll now turn to Page 16 to review our updated guidance. Looking into the first quarter of 2024, we expect revenues to remain flat or decline by 1% from 4Q 2023 GAAP revenue of $5.8 billion. Net interest income is likely to be down 3% to 4% in the first quarter, which is more than we experienced in the fourth quarter due primarily to 1 less day, a smaller balance sheet and some pressure on our net interest margin driven by rate paid. We expect linked-quarter improvement in noninterest income due to higher insurance and investment banking and trading income, partially offset by lower other and lending-related fee income.

好的。我現在將翻到第 16 頁來查看我們更新的指南。展望 2024 年第一季，我們預期營收將與 2023 年第四季 GAAP 營收 58 億美元持平或下降 1%。第一季淨利息收入可能下降 3% 至 4%，這比第四季度的下降幅度更大，主要是由於天數減少、資產負債表縮小以及利率驅動的淨利差面臨一定壓力有薪酬的。我們預計，由於保險和投資銀行及交易收入增加，非利息收入環比有所改善，但其他和貸款相關費用收入的減少部分抵消了非利息收入的環比改善。

Adjusted expenses of $3.4 billion are expected to increase by 4% due to normal seasonal increases related to payroll taxes and higher incentive accruals. For the full year 2024, we expect revenues to decrease by 1% to 3%. Our balance sheet and interest rate sensitivity continues to be positioned as relatively neutral, which is in line with our long-term goal.

由於與工資稅相關的正常季節性增長和較高的應計獎勵，調整後費用預計將增加 34 億美元，增加 4%。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計收入將下降 1% 至 3%。我們的資產負債表和利率敏感度持續保持相對中性，這符合我們的長期目標。

Our forecast assumes that net interest income troughs in the first half of 2024 and then remains relatively stable, assuming 5 reductions in the Fed funds rate, with the first reduction coming in May 2024. In addition, we assume that insurance continues to grow at high single-digit rate, while investment banking and trading should benefit from a recovery in capital markets.

我們的預測假設淨利息收入在 2024 年上半年觸底，然後保持相對穩定，假設聯邦基金利率下調 5 次，第一次降息將在 2024 年 5 月。此外，我們假設保險繼續高成長個位數的利率，而投資銀行和交易應受益於資本市場的復甦。

Although we anticipate adjusted expenses rising 4% in the first quarter due to seasonal factors, full year 2024 adjusted expenses are still expected to remain flat or to increase 1% over 2023 adjusted expenses of $14 billion, which includes TIH independence readiness costs. Our 2024 expense guidance of flat to up 1% also includes $85 million of TIH independence readiness costs.

儘管我們預計由於季節性因素，第一季調整後費用將增長4%，但2024 年全年調整後費用仍預計將保持不變，或比2023 年140 億美元的調整後費用增加1%，其中包括TIH 獨立準備成本。我們的 2024 年費用指引為持平至上漲 1%，還包括 8,500 萬美元的 TIH 獨立準備成本。

In terms of asset quality, we expect net charge-offs of about 65 basis points, reflecting a continued normalization of loss rates across our consumer and wholesale loan portfolios, a lower denominator from declining loan balances and our strategy to be proactive in resolving higher risk portfolios. Finally, we expect our effective tax rate to approximate 17% or 20% on a taxable equivalent basis.

在資產品質方面，我們預期淨沖銷約為65個基點，反映出我們的消費者和批發貸款組合的損失率持續正常化、貸款餘額下降的分母較低以及我們積極主動解決較高風險的策略投資組合。最後，我們預期我們的有效稅率在應稅等值基礎上約為 17% 或 20%。

I'll now turn it back to Bill for some final remarks.

現在我將把它轉回給比爾，讓他做一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Mike. So looking back at 2023, I'm really proud of the work our teammates accomplished, which helped accelerate our transformation into a simpler, more profitable company. As I discussed in September, our transformation is centered on improving efficiency and realigning certain aspects of our leadership and operating model within our 3 current operating segments: wholesale, consumer and insurance, to increase our efficiency and drive revenue opportunities.

謝謝，麥克。因此，回顧 2023 年，我對我們的團隊成員所完成的工作感到非常自豪，這些工作幫助我們加速轉型為更簡單、更有利可圖的公司。正如我在9 月所討論的，我們的轉型重點是提高效率並重新調整我們目前3 個營運部門（批發、消費者和保險）內的領導力和營運模式的某些方面，以提高我們的效率並增加收入機會。

In the third quarter, we've realigned and consolidated several lines of business within consumer and wholesale, including creating a single enterprise-wide payments group, consolidating 3 commercial real estate units into 1 and consolidating 4 consumer lending platforms to leverage technology and capital resources. During the fourth quarter, we announced significant leadership appointments within consumer and wholesale and we formed a new operating council composed of key business leaders from across the organization. These leaders will help improve accountability, efficiency and ultimately drive better growth across our platform, while controlling risk, all of which are primary benefits of the simplification plan.

第三季度，我們重新調整和整合了消費和批發領域的多個業務線，包括創建單一的企業級支付集團、將3 個商業地產部門合併為1 個部門以及整合4 個消費貸款平台，以利用技術和資本資源。在第四季度，我們宣布了消費者和批發領域的重大領導任命，並組建了一個由整個組織的關鍵業務領導人組成的新營運委員會。這些領導者將幫助提高責任感、效率，並最終推動整個平台更好的成長，同時控制風險，所有這些都是簡化計劃的主要好處。

These strategic organizational changes designed to improve long-term revenue growth are complete, and we're beginning to see the impacts from our cost savings initiative. To that end, and as Mike discussed, our cost-saving efforts are going well and reflect the planning and execution that was ongoing throughout 2023.

這些旨在提高長期收入成長的策略性組織變革已經完成，我們開始看到成本節約計畫的影響。為此，正如 Mike 所討論的，我們的成本節約工作進展順利，並反映了 2023 年持續進行的規劃和執行。

These cost-saving efforts are funding important investments in our risk management infrastructure and core businesses while also helping to offset natural expense growth in other parts of our organization. We accomplished all of this while growing net new deposit accounts, strengthened our balance sheet through organic capital growth and strategically allocating our capital to core businesses.

這些節省成本的努力為我們的風險管理基礎設施和核心業務的重要投資提供了資金，同時也有助於抵消我們組織其他部門的自然費用成長。我們實現了所有這些目標，同時增加了淨新存款帳戶，透過有機資本成長加強了我們的資產負債表，並將我們的資本策略性地分配給核心業務。

Looking beyond the fourth quarter, our top priorities for 2024 include growing and deepening relationships with our core clients, leveraging our more efficient platform to gain market share, achieving our expense target and enhancing Truist's digital experience with T3, all while building capital and maintaining strong risk controls and asset quality metrics. We believe there is a significant potential to help our clients achieve their financial success by delivering our commercial consumer payments, investment banking, wealth and insurance capabilities throughout our existing footprint.

展望第四季之後，我們2024 年的首要任務包括發展和深化與核心客戶的關係，利用我們更有效率的平台獲得市場份額，實現我們的費用目標並透過T3 增強Truist 的數位體驗，同時累積資本並維持強勁的實力風險控制和資產品質指標。我們相信，透過在我們現有的業務範圍內提供商業消費者支付、投資銀行、財富和保險能力，我們有巨大的潛力幫助我們的客戶實現財務成功。

In investment banking, we've increased our market share across virtually all of our capital markets products. We've seen a significant increase in the number of lead roles across several products including investment-grade, equity capital markets, leveraged finance and asset securitization. In addition, our mind share with clients in our key industry verticals has never been stronger as we continue to expand into new verticals that are primed for growth as capital market activity recovers.

在投資銀行業務中，我們幾乎所有資本市場產品的市佔率都已增加。我們看到投資等級、股權資本市場、槓桿融資和資產證券化等多種產品的主導角色數量顯著增加。此外，隨著我們不斷擴展到新的垂直行業，隨著資本市場活動的復甦，這些垂直行業將迎來增長，我們與關鍵垂直行業客戶的思想共享從未如此強烈。

Across our wholesale businesses, recent changes in client coverage strategies should allow us to focus more intently on opportunities in the middle market, where we can bring unique perspective given the breadth and depth of our platform, especially in areas like investment banking and payments. We're seeing solid year-over-year growth in CIB referral revenue from commercial banking as we continue to deliver value-added advice and capabilities to our clients.

在我們的批發業務中，最近客戶覆蓋策略的變化應該使我們能夠更加專注於中間市場的機會，鑑於我們平台的廣度和深度，特別是在投資銀行和支付等領域，我們可以帶來獨特的視角。隨著我們繼續為客戶提供增值建議和能力，我們看到來自商業銀行的 CIB 推薦收入逐年穩定成長。

Truist Wealth which, beginning in 2024, will be part of our wholesale business segment, has seen positive asset flows in 10 of the last 11 quarters. By bringing the wealth business over to wholesale, we'll go to market as one team to deliver business transition advisory solutions to commercial and corporate clients.

Truist Wealth 從 2024 年開始將成為我們批發業務部門的一部分，在過去 11 個季度中有 10 個季度實現了正資產流動。透過將財富業務轉變為批發業務，我們將作為一個團隊進入市場，為商業和企業客戶提供業務轉型諮詢解決方案。

In consumer, I'm encouraged that customer satisfaction scores have returned to premerger levels. In addition, net new checking account production was positive in 2023 as we added 59,000 new consumer and 53,000 new business accounts. And during the fourth quarter, we acquired more than 114,000 accounts through our digital channel, including 33,000 new to Truist.

在消費者方面，令我感到鼓舞的是，客戶滿意度評分已恢復到合併前的水平。此外，2023 年新增支票帳戶淨產量為正值，新增 59,000 個消費者帳戶和 53,000 個新企業帳戶。在第四季度，我們透過數位管道獲得了超過 114,000 個帳戶，其中包括 33,000 個新帳戶。

While the branch network presents opportunity for further efficiency in certain markets, we're seeing improvements in productivity due to excellent teammate execution and investments in technology as evidenced by the increase in net new deposit accounts. We're encouraged by this increased productivity, and we'll look to make investments in branches in select key growth markets in 2025 and beyond.

雖然分行網路在某些市場提供了進一步提高效率的機會，但我們看到，由於出色的團隊執行力和技術投資，生產力得到了提高，淨新存款帳戶的增加就證明了這一點。我們對生產力的提高感到鼓舞，我們將尋求在 2025 年及以後對選定的關鍵成長市場的分支機構進行投資。

So in conclusion, the fourth quarter was solid, but we acknowledge there's more work to do as we strive to produce better and more consistent results in the future. We view our fourth quarter performance as another step forward in that direction.

總而言之，第四季度表現不錯，但我們承認，在我們努力在未來取得更好、更一致的結果的過程中，還有更多工作要做。我們認為第四季的業績是朝這個方向又向前邁出了一步。

We're making strong progress on areas in our control, including managing our expenses, building capital and realigning our business so that it is well positioned to serve new and existing clients as markets recover. We're firmly committed to achieving our expense target in 2024, while we will continue to build and allocate capital towards core clients in our home markets we view as a distinctive competitive advantage. This heightened focus will lead to increased franchise and shareholder value over time.

我們在我們控制的領域取得了巨大進展，包括管理我們的費用、累積資本和重新調整我們的業務，以便在市場復甦時能夠很好地為新舊客戶提供服務。我們堅定地致力於在 2024 年實現我們的支出目標，同時我們將繼續為我們視為獨特競爭優勢的國內市場的核心客戶建立和分配資本。隨著時間的推移，這種高度的關注將導致特許經營和股東價值的增加。

Let me close by just thanking our teammates for their incredible purposeful leadership in 2023. Teammates, your focus and commitment fuels our confidence in 2024 and beyond. Thank you. So with that, Brad, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

最後，我要感謝我們的隊友在 2023 年所表現出的令人難以置信、目標明確的領導力。隊友們，你們的關注和承諾增強了我們對 2024 年及以後的信心。謝謝。那麼，布拉德，讓我把它轉回給你進行問答。

Rocco, at this time, will you please explain how our listeners can participate in the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

Rocco，現在請您解釋一下我們的聽眾如何參與問答環節。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mike, I was wondering if you could unpack the outlook for the net interest income in 2024 a little bit, including the assumptions around deposits and whether taking out some Fed cut assumptions would change the outlook much, how sensitive there.

麥克，我想知道您是否可以稍微解釋一下 2024 年淨利息收入的前景，包括有關存款的假設，以及剔除美聯儲的一些降息假設是否會在很大程度上改變前景，那裡有多敏感。

Yes, John, no problem. So I guess if you think about '24 NII, I mentioned in the prepared remarks that we've got 5 cuts in our base plan, the first in May and then really another [25] at each meeting with the exception of November. On balances, we mentioned, I think, loans probably a touch of pressure in the first quarter, maybe down less than 1% and then relatively stable. On the C&I side, we see a nice -- a more stable outlook for the year on the consumer side, a bit of pressure. Deposits sort of picking up where we left off in the fourth quarter, so down, call it, 1.5% or so in the first and then declining, but I think albeit it may be a declining rate over the year.

是的，約翰，沒問題。因此，我想如果您考慮'24 NII，我在準備好的演講中提到我們的基本計劃有5 次削減，第一次是在5 月，然後在除11 月之外的每次會議上再次削減[25]。關於餘額，我們提到，我認為第一季貸款可能會受到一定的壓力，可能會下降不到 1%，然後相對穩定。在工商業方面，我們看到消費者方面今年的前景更加穩定，但有一點壓力。存款在我們第四季度停止的地方有所回升，所以下降了，稱之為，第一季度下降了 1.5% 左右，然後下降，但我認為儘管全年可能會下降。

So that's, I think, the primary piece, John. We think about repricing, and I think you've heard from peers as well on this. I mean probably a bit of caution warranted around the betas. So we think that some of the higher -- the faster stuff that moved on the way up probably moves fast on the way down, but there's still going to be a considerable amount of reprice lag. And so I guess those are the sort of fundamentals.

我認為這就是主要部分，約翰。我們考慮重新定價，我想您也從同行那裡聽到了這方面的意見。我的意思是，對於測試版可能需要謹慎一些。因此，我們認為，一些在上漲過程中上漲速度更快的東西可能會在下跌過程中快速移動，但仍然存在相當大的重新定價滯後。所以我想這些都是基本原理。

And then I guess you asked about cuts and whether there were fewer. I think we mentioned we're relatively neutral versus our base case on the 5 cuts. So whether there are 3 or 4 or maybe 6 or 7 cuts, I think we have less sensitivity there. That being said, I think a scenario where there are no cuts, that would be -- or significantly delayed cuts, that would be a headwind for us.

然後我猜你問的是削減以及削減是否減少。我想我們提到我們對 5 次削減的基本情況相對中立。因此，無論是 3 次、4 次，還是 6 次、7 次削減，我認為我們的敏感度較低。話雖這麼說，我認為如果沒有削減，或者大幅度推遲削減，這對我們來說將是一個阻力。

Okay. And then just a quick one on expenses. The guide for adjusted expenses in the 14 area. What expenses should we keep in mind for our modeling that are outside that adjusted -- so do you have some amortization that's usually, I guess, around $500 million and then some merger restructuring expected this year?

好的。然後簡單介紹一下費用。 14個領域調整費用指南。對於調整後的模型，我們應該記住哪些費用 - 那麼，您是否有一些攤銷，我猜，通常約為 5 億美元，然後預計今年會進行一些合併重組？

Yes. You're right on the amortization, that would be excluded. On the [MRRCs], we mentioned we've got $25 million left on our cost savings initiatives based on estimates in the first quarter. They'll be down versus last year, should not be as much noise in '24 as we saw in '23.

是的。你的攤銷是正確的，這將被排除在外。在 [MRRC] 中，我們提到根據第一季的估計，我們的成本節約計劃還剩 2500 萬美元。與去年相比，他們會有所下降，24 年的噪音應該不會像我們在 23 年看到的那麼大。

Okay. And I guess just other MRRCs or incremental operating costs, like any of that throughout the year that we should keep in mind or a placeholder for some of that to occur beyond the first quarter?

好的。我想只是其他 MRRC 或增量營運成本，例如我們應該牢記的全年成本，或者是第一季之後發生的一些成本的佔位符？

Yes, maybe just to touch, John, but I don't expect that to be a significant factor in our '24.

是的，也許只是為了觸摸，約翰，但我不認為這會成為我們 24 小時的一個重要因素。

Our next question today comes from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

今天我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯和派珀·桑德勒。

Mike, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about sort of how you might see loan demand trajecting through years. Certainly, I understand -- and I appreciate the comments about a little more pressure on loan balances in the early part of the year and then more stability. But just curious how you're thinking about whether demand can come back if we begin to get some rate cuts, more macroeconomic clarity, et cetera.

麥克，我希望你能談談你如何看待多年來貸款需求的軌跡。當然，我理解——而且我很欣賞關於今年年初貸款餘額壓力更大、然後更加穩定的評論。但只是好奇你如何考慮如果我們開始降息、宏觀經濟更加清晰等等，需求是否會回升。

Yes. No, Scott, I think you're right. I mean I think in our base case, we're assuming a couple of things. The 5 cuts, we think, will benefit demand a touch. But to the extent that, that's underestimated that would be welcome news. I think we mentioned from a C&I perspective, we do expect modest growth in that portfolio, at least in sort of the second quarter, third quarter and beyond. I think most of the pressure that we're seeing for the year is still on the consumer side. Others may weigh in on other factors. Bill?

是的。不，斯科特，我認為你是對的。我的意思是，我認為在我們的基本情況下，我們假設了一些事情。我們認為，這 5 次降息將有利於需求。但在某種程度上，這被低估了，這將是一個受歡迎的消息。我認為我們從 C&I 的角度提到，我們確實預計該投資組合將出現適度成長，至少在第二季、第三季及以後是如此。我認為今年我們看到的壓力大部分仍然來自消費者方面。其他人可能會權衡其他因素。帳單？

Yes. So a part of the pressure on the consumer side is we're creating as we're really reducing some of our focus on indirect as an example. And that's somewhat offset by the growth in Sheffield and Service Finance, but that doesn't -- sort of isn't a perfect balance in there. So the consumer reflects probably a little more of our own action and capital allocation than where we are from a market perspective.

是的。因此，消費者方面的部分壓力是我們正在創造的，例如，我們確實減少了對間接的關注。這在某種程度上被謝菲爾德和服務金融的成長所抵消，但這並沒有——有點不是完美的平衡。因此，與市場角度相比，消費者可能更反映了我們自己的行動和資本配置。

And then I think as Mike said, I mean, on the C&I side, yes, we're open for business, so we're going to serve our markets. And I think we've got really, really strong markets. And when I think recovery comes, it will come disproportionately faster in our markets. And if that happens sooner, we'll see the benefit of that and we'll be recipient of that because we are, I think, gaining share in most of those capabilities.

然後我認為，正如麥克所說，我的意思是，在工商業方面，是的，我們對業務開放，所以我們將服務我們的市場。我認為我們擁有非常非常強大的市場。當我認為復甦到來時，我們的市場將會以驚人的速度復甦。如果這種情況發生得更早，我們將看到其中的好處，並且我們將受益於此，因為我認為，我們正在獲得大部分這些能力的份額。

And then the other part I'd just mention is that like -- and when we're winning, we're winning more disproportionately. So on the C&I side particularly, just 15% to 20% more of the deals are in left leads as an example. So if we look at sort of our portfolio last year, we're winning more on the left side. So that's got more profitability and more tailwind in terms of an ability to expand those relationships.

我剛才提到的另一部分是——當我們獲勝時，我們的勝利更加不成比例。因此，特別是在 C&I 方面，僅 15% 到 20% 的交易是在左側線索中進行的。因此，如果我們看看去年的投資組合，我們會發現我們在左側贏得了更多。因此，在擴大這些關係的能力方面，這會帶來更多的獲利能力和更多的優勢。

So I don't know if we're being conservative, to use that word, but I think we've got to sort of see what's in front of us. And hopefully, by the end of the year, if the rates turn out as we all forecast, we'll see a little spur in the economy and I think we'll be direct beneficiaries of that.

所以我不知道用這個詞我們是否保守，但我認為我們必須看看我們面前的是什麼。希望到今年年底，如果利率結果符合我們所有人的預測，我們將看到經濟出現一些刺激，我認為我們將成為直接受益者。

Perfect. And then, Mike, just more minutia-oriented one. Obviously, great to see the nearly $3 billion improvement in AOCI. Curious if you have an estimate for what your adjusted or sort of fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio is relative to the stated 10.1%.

完美的。然後，麥克，只是更注重細節。顯然，很高興看到 AOCI 實現近 30 億美元的改善。很好奇您是否對調整後或滿載普通股一級比率相對於規定的 10.1% 有一個估計。

Yes, Scott, I can give that to you. So on a stated basis, we finished the quarter at 10.1%. If you look at our -- the new balance from an OCI perspective, and this would include the AFS, securities as well as the pension, that's about a 2.9% impact. So that would take you down to, call it, I guess, [7 2]. And then the other factors like the thresholds and the RWA inflation we mentioned earlier in the call that we have done more work around an estimate for what the RWA impact might be under Basel and also do a little more work on the thresholds, call those another percent. So that walks you down to low 6s.

是的，史考特，我可以給你。因此，依照規定的基礎，我們本季的成長率為 10.1%。如果你從 OCI 的角度來看我們的新餘額，這將包括 AFS、證券以及退休金，這大約會產生 2.9% 的影響。所以我想這會讓你稱它為[7 2]。然後是其他因素，例如我們之前在電話會議中提到的閾值和RWA 通貨膨脹，我們已經圍繞巴塞爾協議下RWA 影響的估計做了更多工作，並且還在閾值上做了更多工作，將這些稱為另一個因素百分。這樣你就可以降到低 6 分。

And our next question today comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

今天我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

Bill, I'm wondering if the optimization, maybe you could call it Truist 2.0, is going fast and deep enough. And I do recognize two items. One, you mentioned headwinds from the past from rates, regulation and retooling; and second, your new efforts, the $750 million savings program, 4% less headcount, 4% less branches ahead. But then I look at core efficiency numbers and I'm like, oh, this is not what we signed up for, right? I mean Slide 8, 9, I think, lists your core efficiency at 59% in 2023. And now you're guiding worse for 2024 and your pre-merger target was 51%. So are you guys doing enough and doing it fast enough to optimize?

Bill，我想知道優化（也許你可以稱之為 Truist 2.0）是否進展得足夠快、足夠深入。我確實認識兩個項目。第一，您提到了過去來自利率、監管和重組的阻力；其次，你們的新努力，7.5 億美元的儲蓄計劃，員工人數減少 4%，未來的分行減少 4%。但當我看到核心效率數據時，我想，哦，這不是我們簽約的目的，對吧？我的意思是幻燈片 8、9 列出了 2023 年你們的核心效率為 59%。現在你們對 2024 年的指導更糟，合併前的目標是 51%。那麼你們做得夠多並且做得夠快來優化嗎？

Yes, Mike, I think an appropriate challenge, as always. We're doing a lot. So I think I'm really encouraged by the momentum, and you can see it really in the third and fourth quarter. And you see that significantly in particularly the expense declines. And we're committed to what we talked about in September.

是的，麥克，我認為一如既往，這是一個適當的挑戰。我們正在做很多事情。所以我認為我真的對這種勢頭感到鼓舞，你可以在第三和第四季看到這一點。你會發現這一點尤其明顯，尤其是費用下降。我們致力於實現我們在 9 月所討論的內容。

I think our $750 million plan, I'm really proud of our teammates. I'm proud of our leadership. They really got the sleeves rolled up and got after it. So the intensity that's in this company right now about being more efficient, I feel is demonstrably better. And being able to apply that over this more simplified organizational structure is where we see the benefits.

我認為我們的 7.5 億美元計劃，我真的為我們的隊友感到自豪。我為我們的領導能力感到自豪。他們真的捲起袖子去追趕它。因此，我覺得這家公司現在關於提高效率的強度明顯更好。能夠將其應用到這種更簡化的組織結構上是我們看到的好處。

So if you think about, as I made in my comments, I mean, sort of that process is complete. So now this intensity, these efforts, these initiatives, we apply that over a much more simplified business model. And the decisions that leaders are making, I think, are just better, stronger decisions, which lead us to a more efficient company long term.

因此，如果你想一想，正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我的意思是，這個過程已經完成了。因此，現在我們將這種強度、這些努力、這些措施應用在一個更簡化的商業模式上。我認為，領導者正在做出的決策是更好、更強有力的決策，從長遠來看，它們使我們的公司更有效率。

My follow-up on optimization, I'll give to our -- my colleague, insurance analyst, Elyse Greenspan, Elyse?

我對優化的後續行動，我將交給我們的——我的同事，保險分析師，Elyse Greenspan，Elyse？

Yes. On the insurance side, there's been press reports on the potential monetization and sales process of that asset. So I was just hoping that you can provide an update to us on just where you stand with that process.

是的。在保險方面，有關於該資產的潛在貨幣化和銷售過程的新聞報導。所以我只是希望您能夠向我們提供有關您在該流程中的立場的最新資訊。

Yes. So I think we've said pretty clearly that the insurance business creates a capital opportunity for us. I mean I outlined that in a lot of specificity. We've said clearly that we're always evaluating alternatives, and we're going to do the best thing for the insurance business and the best thing for Truist going forward. And I don't think -- as it relates to any specific timing and those types of things, I don't think I really should comment beyond that.

是的。所以我認為我們已經說得很清楚了，保險業務為我們創造了資本機會。我的意思是我非常具體地概述了這一點。我們已經明確表示，我們一直在評估替代方案，我們將為保險業務和 Truist 的未來做最好的事情。我不認為——因為它與任何特定的時間和這些類型的事情有關，我認為我真的不應該對此發表評論。

And our next question today comes from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I wanted to ask you to expand a little bit on your outlook for credit. I'm noticing the NPA decline this quarter and you have this unexpected charge-off normalization path. I'm just wondering what you're seeing in terms of what areas of the portfolio you're expecting to see that loss trend higher in the most. And just your general sense of just how the customer set feels in terms of -- that certainly implies a good ramp from here but one that's controllable. So just kind of juxtaposing that NPA decline with your expected ramp and losses.

我想請您稍微擴展一下您的信用前景。我注意到本季的 NPA 有所下降，並且出現了意想不到的沖銷正常化路徑。我只是想知道您在投資組合的哪些領域中看到了什麼，您預計會看到損失趨勢最高。您對客戶群的感受的一般感覺——這當然意味著從這裡開始會有一個良好的坡度，但這是一個可控的坡度。因此，只需將 NPA 下降與預期的成長和損失並列即可。

This is Clarke. Thanks for the question. Our '24 NCO guidance, as Mike said, it assumes we're going to continue to see normalization occur both in consumer and wholesale. We've already seen a lot of it in the consumer side. We have a higher mix, as Bill said, of higher-margin consumer finance businesses and less relative mortgage and prime auto. That's a factor on the loss assumption.

這是克拉克。謝謝你的提問。正如麥克所說，我們的 24 NCO 指導假設我們將繼續看到消費者和批發領域正常化。我們已經在消費者方面看到了很多這樣的情況。正如比爾所說，我們有更高的利潤率更高的消費金融業務組合，以及相對較少的抵押貸款和優質汽車業務。這是損失假設的一個因素。

But I think the biggest one that you pointed out, we're working really hard to get ahead of any potential areas of stress, think CRE, office. And so our guidance also reflects opportunities to be opportunistic, to work through if we see more challenges in that space as that structural risk unfolds. So we hope to do better. But we're assuming we're going to work hard to make sure that we get ahead of any risk.

但我認為你指出的最大的一個問題是，我們正在非常努力地工作，以克服任何潛在的壓力領域，例如商業房地產、辦公室。因此，我們的指導也反映了機會主義的機會，如果隨著結構性風險的出現，我們看到該領域有更多挑戰，我們就可以克服這些機會。所以我們希望能做得更好。但我們假設我們將努力確保我們能夠應對任何風險。

Got it. And just one follow-up. Just wondering, I know you said that you're expecting a hopeful bounce in the investment banking business. Just wondering where you -- where those level of conversations are, and just given your mix of business, where we might expect to see that either come back sooner or have a lag relative to the environment.

知道了。只有一個後續行動。只是想知道，我知道您說過您預計投資銀行業務有望反彈。只是想知道您的對話水平在哪裡，並考慮到您的業務組合，我們可能期望看到更快地返回或相對於環境有滯後。

Yes, good question. And the good news is we've got a really good balanced investment banking business. So seeing some positive things on a lot of the different buckets. So if you think about equity capital markets, I mean, they're starting to come back. I think we're starting to see some IPO components of that. Our pipeline there is probably the strongest it's been in a long time and pipeline as active book runner. When and if all that comes to bear, I think that's -- we'll just have to be a little bit market dependent.

是的，好問題。好消息是我們擁有非常平衡的投資銀行業務。因此，在很多不同的方面都看到了一些正面的事情。因此，如果你考慮股權資本市場，我的意思是，它們正在開始回歸。我認為我們開始看到其中的一些 IPO 組成部分。我們的管道可能是很長一段時間以來最強勁的，也是活躍帳簿管理人的管道。當所有這些都發生時，我認為我們將不得不稍微依賴市場。

On the debt side, so the high-yield investment grade, I mean, you've got a lot of maturities sort of running off in '24, so there's sort of a natural refinance opportunity. I think, again, sort of that will be where clients are projecting where they think rates are going to come. So they've got a lot of natural things they have to do, and they'll have to pick that point of demarcation where they want to start the refinancing side.

在債務方面，我的意思是，高收益投資等級，許多到期日都會在 24 年到期，所以有自然的再融資機會。我再次認為，這將是客戶預測他們認為利率將會出現的情況。因此，他們有很多自然的事情要做，他們必須選擇他們想要開始再融資的分界點。

And then the M&A pipeline is really strong. We spent a lot of time and energy with our verticals and being really relevant. So the size and scope of some of the things that we're doing are proportionately higher, but we've also built this really great pipeline with our transition advisory business with our commercial clients. And we've got more in the pipeline there than we closed all of last year, just as an example. So that's sort of that core bread and butter kind of work.

而且併購通路非常強大。我們在垂直領域投入了大量時間和精力，並保持真正的相關性。因此，我們正在做的一些事情的規模和範圍相對較高，但我們也透過與商業客戶的過渡諮詢業務建立了這條非常好的管道。舉個例子，我們正在籌建的項目比去年全年關閉的項目還要多。這就是核心麵包和黃油之類的工作。

And then we have things like public finance, which was sort of a nascent business for us. It's -- 12 to 18 months ago and now starting to build up some momentum. And as we see, public finance opportunities are starting to grow. So we have a lot of cylinders that are working, that if they can offset each other and would be a good reason that we would be confident in a pretty nice recovery on the investment banking side. It will be like everything else, a little bit quarter-to-quarter dependent but hopefully a little less volatility for us given that we've got a lot of cylinders running.

然後我們還有公共財政之類的東西，這對我們來說是一項新興業務。這是 12 到 18 個月前的事，現在開始形成一些勢頭。正如我們所看到的，公共財政機會正在開始成長。因此，我們有很多正在發揮作用的氣缸，如果它們能夠相互抵消，這將是我們對投資銀行方面的相當不錯的復甦充滿信心的一個很好的理由。它會像其他一切一樣，有點依賴於季度與季度，但希望我們的波動性能少一點，因為我們有很多氣缸在運行。

And our next question today comes from Erika Najarian with UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

The first question is for Bill. Bill, Mike is not saying anything too different about loan growth from the rest of your peers for 2024. That being said, I think, obviously, one of the genesis of the merger of equals is this combined franchise in this footprint that was better than everybody else's.

第一個問題是問比爾的。比爾、麥克對於 2024 年貸款成長的說法與其他同行並沒有太大不同。話雖這麼說，我認為，顯然，對等合併的起源之一是這種足跡中的合併特許經營權比其他人的。

So I guess my question here is how much of your current adjusted capital state right now is sort of impacting still how you're thinking about growth and going to market? And clearly, there's going to be a lot of questions on use of proceeds if you do sell the rest of Truist Insurance Holdings. But how much different is your approach going to be to market, if at all, if you do monetize TIH?

所以我想我的問題是，目前調整後的資本狀況在多大程度上仍然影響您對成長和上市的看法？顯然，如果你確實出售 Truist Insurance Holdings 的其餘部分，那麼收益的使用將會出現很多問題。但是，如果您確實透過 TIH 貨幣化，那麼您的市場方法（如果有的話）會有多大不同？

Yes. Let me answer the first part of that as well. So I think that's a great question. And if you look at sort of the barometer, I was trying to say this earlier on sort of where we go, I think we will reflect our economy and our opportunity. So -- and we'll just have to see sort of how that gets unleashed going forward. And I think the correlation will probably be more directly seen in the C&I side. Because we're, as I mentioned before, not just a capital preservation but -- or optimization, but really more around optimization around return and sort of looking at our core and noncore.

是的。讓我也回答第一部分。所以我認為這是一個很好的問題。如果你看一下晴雨表，我早些時候試圖就我們的發展方向說這一點，我認為我們將反映我們的經濟和我們的機會。所以——我們只需要看看它如何在未來得到釋放。我認為這種相關性可能會在 C&I 方面更直接地體現出來。因為，正如我之前提到的，我們不僅僅是資本保值，而是優化，但實際上更多的是圍繞回報進行優化，並專注於我們的核心和非核心。

So we've pulled the throttle back on some of the consumer side that we consider to be less capital-efficient. So that's got a little bit of an overhang in terms of where we look at this. I think if we go into 2024, and trying to answer your question, I think the barometer for us ought to be on the parts of consumer where we're investing in C&I overall. And as I said earlier, I think when we see the recovery, we'll see it more disproportionately in our markets and we should reflect that. So I think that's exactly right. But net of your whole question, we're not capital-constrained in terms of the opportunity for growth in the business -- in core business and the places where we're investing.

因此，我們已經取消了對一些我們認為資本效率較低的消費者方面的限制。因此，就我們的看法而言，這有點懸而未決。我認為，如果我們進入 2024 年，並試圖回答您的問題，我認為我們的晴雨表應該放在我們對 C&I 整體投資的消費者部分。正如我之前所說，我認為當我們看到復甦時，我們會在我們的市場中看到更不成比例的復甦，我們應該反映這一點。所以我認為這是完全正確的。但拋開你的整個問題，我們在業務成長機會方面——核心業務和我們投資的地方——並不受資本限制。

Got it. And just a follow-up question for Mike. One of your peers had framed it this way. So I think the investors found it helpful, but you did mention earlier that you had caution on the betas to the downside. And your first cut is presumed to be May. Considering a lag, could you give us a sense of what your range of assumptions is in terms of downside betas for the first 100 basis points of cuts that's embedded in your guide?

知道了。這是麥克的後續問題。你的一位同行是這樣表達的。因此，我認為投資者認為這很有幫助，但您之前確實提到過，您對下行貝塔持謹慎態度。你的第一次剪輯預計是在五月。考慮到滯後性，您能否讓我們了解您的指南中包含的前 100 個基點降息的下行貝塔值的假設範圍？

Yes, Erika, I'm not -- it's a great question and one we're spending a lot of time on. Look, I mean, I think initially out of the gates, and if these come, call it, 25 at a time and you think about the first hundreds, so the first 4 for us, I think the first half of that is going to be really pressured by the -- by guys still repricing up across the retail business and certain products and segments.

是的，艾莉卡，我不是——這是一個很好的問題，我們在這個問題上花了很多時間。聽著，我的意思是，我認為最初是在大門之外，如果這些來了，一次 25 個，你會想到前數百個，所以對我們來說前 4 個，我認為前半部分將確實受到了來自零售業務以及某些產品和細分市場的重新定價的人們的壓力。

So I guess my use of the word cautionary is thinking about kind of where we're ending up right now on a cumulative beta perspective and just acknowledging that we're going to be lower than that out of the gates for certain. But I don't think -- and if you think about our NII outlook, I think you've got a pretty good sense for how we're thinking about the reprice trend. As we mentioned, we think in the first quarter, in sort of a static rate environment, we're going to be down 3% to 4% on balances and day count and a touch worse on rate paid. And from there, as we start to see the cuts, in our case, we think we flattened out and are pretty stable.

因此，我想我對「警告」這個詞的使用是在考慮我們現在在累積測試版的角度上的結局，並且只是承認我們肯定會低於大門外的水平。但我不認為 - 如果您考慮我們的 NII 前景，我認為您對我們如何考慮重新定價趨勢有很好的了解。正如我們所提到的，我們認為在第一季度，在某種靜態利率環境下，我們的餘額和天數將下降 3% 至 4%，而支付的利率將下降 3% 至 4%。從那時起，當我們開始看到削減時，就我們而言，我們認為我們已經趨於平緩並且相當穩定。

And our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess I just wanted to follow up, maybe Bill and Mike, on the goodwill charge. I'm assuming it's more than a mathematical exercise. And it's hard for me to imagine that higher rates are structurally bad for banking organizations with good deposit base, which is the case for Truist. So to some extent, I guess the read-through is some of the deal synergies tied to the SunTrust, BB&T merger, no longer look as appealing as they did at the time of the deal announcement. One, is -- am I missing something there?

我想我只是想跟進一下，也許是比爾和麥克，關於商譽費用的情況。我認為這不僅僅是數學練習。我很難想像較高的利率對於存款基礎良好的銀行組織來說在結構上是不利的，Truist 的情況就是如此。因此，在某種程度上，我想通讀的是與 SunTrust 和 BB&T 合併相關的一些交易協同效應，看起來不再像交易宣佈時那樣有吸引力。一是──我是不是漏掉了什麼？

And secondly, Bill, just -- so you've talked about a bunch of strategic actions. Is it fair for us to expect that we -- if we look a year from now, we will see very clearly some of the synergies, be it in terms of market share gains, efficiency tied to the deal where investors can start getting onboard with the franchise?

其次，比爾，你剛才談到了一系列戰略行動。如果我們展望一年後，我們會非常清楚地看到一些協同效應，無論是在市場份額增益方面，還是在與交易相關的效率方面，投資者可以開始參與其中，這對我們來說是否公平？特許經營權？

Yes. I'll go on the first one, Ebrahim. Thanks for the question. You sort of said, hey, I assume it's sort of not just -- or maybe you said it is mathematical, and that's right. I mean at the end of the day, we do an annual test for impairment. There are, I mean, thousands and thousands of factors that go into this work. There are customary valuation approaches. You evaluate each reporting unit.

是的。我將繼續第一個，易卜拉欣。謝謝你的提問。你說，嘿，我認為這不僅僅是——或者也許你說這是數學上的，這是對的。我的意思是，最終，我們會進行年度減損測試。我的意思是，這項工作涉及成千上萬的因素。有一些慣用的估價方法。您評估每個報告單位。

If you think about it, the factors that are significant that we cited in our prepared remarks is that you do have a very -- you've had degradation in operating conditions for the industry. You had a significant decline in, broadly speaking, bank stock valuations, Truist market valuation as of the timing. And we do this test as of a certain day in each year, in our case, it's October 1. And so all those factors are considered and influence the outcome.

如果你仔細想想，我們在準備好的發言中提到的重要因素是，該行業的營運條件確實惡化了。從廣義上講，銀行股票估值、Truist 市場估值在此時顯著下降。我們在每年的某一天進行這項測試，在我們的例子中，是 10 月 1 日。因此，所有這些因素都會被考慮並影響結果。

But at the end of the day, the estimated fair value is below the carrying value and that's the output. But again, just to reiterate this, absolutely 0 impact to our financial condition or how we think about our opportunity or our strategy or what we're doing.

但最終，估計的公允價值低於帳面價值，這就是產出。但再次重申這一點，對我們的財務狀況或我們如何看待我們的機會、我們的策略或我們正在做的事情的影響絕對為零。

And it's just done by segment...

而且只是分段完成...

Yes, that's right. You look at the various reporting segment -- the reporting units for us, which are the consumer and wealth business, at least in '23, corporate and commercial and then insurance.

恩，那就對了。你看看不同的報告部門——我們的報告單位，至少在23年是消費者和財富業務，企業和商業，然後是保險。

And then on your second question, hopefully, what I was indicating is that, that process has started. So if you look at the net new account gains, we're seeing the growth in primary accounts, the growth in market share, in investment banking. So those things are actually underway and happening. I think they'll continue to accelerate. They'll continue to build. They'll continue to manifest, as you said, both on the revenue and both on the efficiency side. I think you actually pointed out you'll see both sides of that.

然後，關於你的第二個問題，希望我的意思是，這個過程已經開始。因此，如果你看看新帳戶淨收益，我們會看到投資銀行領域主要帳戶的成長、市場佔有率的成長。所以這些事情其實正在發生。我認為他們會繼續加速。他們將繼續建設。正如您所說，它們將繼續體現在收入和效率方面。我認為你實際上指出你會看到事情的兩面。

Got it. And just one quick follow-up. When we look at the commercial real estate multifamily book, there are a bunch of like Southeast markets that are probably seeing a fair amount of supply coming through. Any concerns? I mean what are you seeing in the multifamily CRE today? And any markets where you're particularly focused on in terms of oversupply over the next year or two?

知道了。只需一個快速跟進。當我們查看商業房地產多戶住宅書籍時，有許多類似的東南市場可能會看到大量的供應。有什麼顧慮嗎？我的意思是，您今天在多戶型 CRE 中看到了什麼？您特別關注未來一兩年供應過剩的哪些市場？

Yes. I'll get Clarke to comment as well, but yes, there are -- part of the great part of our markets is we have a lot of in-migrations. So we've got a lot of building in anticipation of that, so if you think about some of our larger markets, Austin, Orlando, I mean, some of the suspects where you've seen a little bit of that. I'll get Clarke to comment on the quality of the portfolio, so the multifamily large developers that we're in. And long term, the migration positive continues.

是的。我也會讓克拉克發表評論，但是是的，我們市場的很大一部分是我們有很多移民。因此，我們已經為此做了很多建設，所以如果你想想我們的一些較大的市場，奧斯汀、奧蘭多，我的意思是，你已經看到了一些這樣的嫌疑犯。我會讓克拉克對投資組合的品質發表評論，所以我們所在的多戶大型開發商。從長遠來看，積極的遷移仍在繼續。

So I was looking at some data and I'll just make a comment broadly on that. Within our markets last year, we added a metropolitan in Charlotte. So just think about that in context, So we added about 2.2 net in-migration into our markets. So the overall demographics are good. But I think, in fairness to your question, we probably have a little bit of a shorter-term watch item versus worry item. Maybe Clarke, you can...

所以我正在查看一些數據，我將對此發表廣泛的評論。去年，我們在夏洛特的市場中增加了一個大都市。因此，請在上下文中考慮這一點，因此我們增加了約 2.2 的淨移民進入我們的市場。因此，整體人口統計數據良好。但我認為，公平地回答你的問題，我們可能有一些短期觀察項目與擔憂項目。也許克拉克，你可以...

I agree with you, Bill. Overall, we still think multifamily long term is a very favored asset class, and some of the current challenges in our -- from our perspective relate more to a margin or a current debt service coverage risk issue given rate increases, higher operating costs, and to your point, the new pipeline supply that's coming on. And we just view that very differently than the structural risk we see in office as an example. So we're working with our borrowers to address their specific situations as we look out and how they're going to address this impact.

我同意你的看法，比爾。總體而言，我們仍然認為多戶家庭長期是一種非常受歡迎的資產類別，從我們的角度來看，當前的一些挑戰更多地與利潤率或當前償債覆蓋風險問題相關，因為利率上升、營運成本上升，以及就你而言，新的管道供應即將到來。我們對此的看法與我們在辦公室看到的結構性風險非常不同。因此，我們正在與借款人合作，解決他們的具體情況，同時關注他們將如何應對這一影響。

But again, so what we would expect, more temporary increase in watch list, some nonaccruals, but not -- nowhere near the same loss risk exposure you see in office. And I would remind you that there's a very active secondary placement, sources, a lot of equity sources willing to come in. And the clients that we have, to Bill's point, they want these assets and they're supporting those. So we think it's a manageable risk, even though there's some short-term pressure.

但同樣，正如我們所期望的，觀察名單會暫時增加，一些非應計費用，但不是——遠不及你在辦公室看到的相同的損失風險敞口。我想提醒大家，有非常活躍的二次配售、來源、大量股權來源願意加入。就比爾的觀點而言，我們擁有的客戶想要這些資產，並且正在支持這些資產。因此，我們認為這是一個可控制的風險，儘管存在一些短期壓力。

And our next question today comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

今天我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Sorry, I missed it, but have you guys talked about what your targeted capital level is? Obviously, you said going from here with no buybacks in the near term. And again, this is impact on the RWAs from the Basel III proposals. But how are you thinking about kind of targeted capital levels over the medium or longer term?

抱歉，我錯過了，但是你們有沒有談過你們的目標資本水準是多少？顯然，您說過短期內不會回購。這也是巴塞爾協議 III 提案對風險加權資產的影響。但您如何考慮中長期目標資本水準？

Yes. Matt, so right now, we're at [10 1] in building. And so I think until we get more information, so we sort of understand the dynamics a little bit more and think about our company construct. I think the best thing for us right now is to be in an organic capital building mode. So we haven't set a specific target. But I think 10-plus for the short term to medium term seems a good place for us to be landing right now.

是的。馬特，現在我們正在建設中 [10 1]。所以我認為，直到我們獲得更多信息，我們才能更多地了解動態並思考我們的公司結構。我認為現在對我們來說最好的事情就是採用有機資本建設模式。所以我們還沒有設定一個具體的目標。但我認為，從短期到中期來看，10+似乎是我們現在著陸的好地方。

Okay. And as you think about kind of the 10-plus medium term, is that including AOCI? Because obviously, you're already 10-plus now and did accrete capital fairly quickly this year, given earnings and not much balance and growth.

好的。當你考慮 10 多個中期時，這包括 AOCI 嗎？因為顯然，考慮到收益以及沒有太多的餘額和成長，你現在已經超過 10 歲了，今年的資本累積速度相當快。

Yes. Matt, I mean, I think we're just -- in the moment we're in, we're looking at spot capital, we're thinking about transition capital measurements if we phase into new roles and we're looking at fully phased in. I think the whole industry is thinking about it that way. So I think when Bill thinks about 10, I mean, I think about it like on a transitional basis, staying at or above 10% is probably what Bill is implying. But I think shorter term is like we're building capital. We're going to continue to do that through organic earnings, and hopefully, we'll have a little more visibility on this rule and give you a little better sense for kind of a medium-term target.

是的。馬特，我的意思是，我認為我們只是 - 在我們所處的那一刻，我們正在考慮現貨資本，如果我們進入新角色，我們正在考慮過渡資本衡量標準，並且我們正在全面考慮我認為整個行業都在這樣考慮。所以我認為當比爾考慮 10 時，我的意思是，我會在過渡的基礎上考慮它，保持在 10% 或以上可能是比爾所暗示的。但我認為短期就像我們在累積資本。我們將繼續透過有機收益來做到這一點，希望我們能夠對這項規則有更多的了解，並讓您對中期目標有更好的認識。

And our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Bill, when we go back to the original merger, I think if I recall correctly, there was a targeted 20% return on tangible common equity and you've just discussed about the capital levels, Basel III being higher than what I presume to be lower numbers back in -- when the deal was announced. Can you share with us, are you still thinking 20% return on tangible common equity is a reasonable goal or you can attain it even with these higher capital levels that you and the industry has to carry?

比爾，當我們回到最初的合併時，我想如果我沒記錯的話，有形普通股的回報率為 20%，您剛剛討論了資本水平，巴塞爾 III 高於我的假設交易宣佈時，數字較低。您能否與我們分享一下，您是否仍然認為 20% 的有形普通股回報率是一個合理的目標，或者即使您和行業必須承擔更高的資本水平，您也可以實現這一目標？

Yes. I mean, I think, Gerard, when we go back to 2019, that was different world and a different environment both in terms of where we were from a rate standpoint and where we were from a capital standpoint, regulatory standpoint. Now we've got Basel III in front of us.

是的。我的意思是，傑拉德，當我們回到 2019 年時，無論是從利率角度還是從資本角度和監管角度來看，那都是不同的世界和不同的環境。現在巴塞爾 III 就擺在我們面前。

So I think, in fairness, '20 certainly short and medium term is not necessarily in the windshield. But I think we can continue to perform at a high level in terms of ROTCE. And so all the efficiency opportunities and things we're building, revenue growing, those are things that are continuing to build on that. So I think to think about us being a top performer in that category versus setting a specific target that was constructed in 2019 in a different environment is maybe a different way to think about it.

所以我認為，公平地說，'20 肯定短期和中期不一定是在擋風玻璃上。但我認為我們可以在 ROTCE 方面繼續保持高水準。因此，我們正在建立的所有效率機會和事物、收入成長，都是在此基礎上繼續發展的。因此，我認為，考慮我們是該類別中的佼佼者，與在不同的環境中設定 2019 年制定的具體目標相比，可能是一種不同的思考方式。

Very good. And then coming back, obviously, you guys talked about credit quality. You referenced, Mike, about commercial real estate in your opening remarks and you just talked about multifamily again. And Truist has always been good on its credit. So my question on commercial real estate in the office area, and maybe this is for Clarke, can you kind of draw a line for us from early '22 when there wasn't really any problems before rates started to go higher in downtown office, really, or maybe just emerging?

非常好。然後回來，顯然，你們談論了信用品質。麥克，您在開場白中提到了商業房地產，剛才又談到了多戶住宅。 Truist 的信譽一直都很好。所以我關於辦公區商業房地產的問題，也許這是給克拉克的，你能否為我們從 22 年初開始劃一條界限，當時在市中心寫字樓的房價開始走高之前並沒有出現任何問題，真的嗎，或者可能只是剛出現？

And incrementally, it's clearly deteriorated. Clarke, can you share with us, is the deterioration accelerating on a sequential basis in the office market? Or have we seen the rapid acceleration of down values, real workouts taken charge-offs? And going forward, yes, you're still going to see higher charge-offs probably, but the actual incremental deterioration is lessening or worsening, can you share with us from that standpoint?

而且隨著時間的推移，情況明顯惡化。 Clarke，您能否與我們分享一下，辦公室市場的惡化是否環比加速？或者我們看到了數值的快速下降，真正的鍛鍊被取消了？展望未來，是的，您可能仍然會看到更高的沖銷，但實際的增量惡化正在減輕或惡化，您能從這個角度與我們分享嗎？

Great question we talk a lot about, Gerard. And so I would say as I mentioned, as opposed to multifamily, we view the risk in the CRE sector as more structural, and it still will take some time to play out over the next couple of years. And the way we think about it, everyone with credit in the sector is exposed to the risk. And so the big challenge will be for those that have large concentrations, which we don't. So we feel good about that.

我們經常談論的好問題，傑拉德。因此，正如我所提到的，與多戶型住宅相比，我們認為商業房地產行業的風險更具結構性，並且在未來幾年內仍需要一些時間才能發揮作用。從我們的角度來看，該行業擁有信貸的每個人都面臨著風險。因此，對於那些高度集中的企業來說，最大的挑戰將是我們，而我們卻沒有。所以我們對此感覺良好。

And our strategy has been to try to identify the risk early and work through with those borrowers to address all options. And you see that in how we approached risk rating, accrual status and reserves. So that's kind of where we are right now. We feel good about our efforts. But to your point, we still think about the fact there are very few real trades today. So it's hard to know what real price discovery and whether we've hit the bottom of the cycle or not. I think everyone's trying to recognize that and so you've seen that acceleration.

我們的策略是儘早識別風險，並與借款人合作解決所有選擇。您可以從我們處理風險評級、應計狀況和準備金的方式中看到這一點。這就是我們現在的處境。我們對自己的努力感到滿意。但就你的觀點而言，我們仍然考慮到今天的真實交易很少。因此，很難知道真正的價格發現是什麼，以及我們是否已經觸及週期的底部。我認為每個人都在努力認識到這一點，所以你已經看到了這種加速。

What I think is still left to come incrementally, as we are still seeing, as leases fully mature, companies, lessees resizing their space needs. And so you can have performing loans today and a good outlook, but you really don't know until you see the leases mature. The other thing I would say is we are seeing some interest, some early interest on long-term investors coming in and that may help. So I would say still more to come.

我認為，正如我們仍然看到的那樣，隨著租賃完全成熟，公司和承租人正在調整其空間需求，這仍然需要逐步實現。因此，您今天可以獲得良好的貸款和良好的前景，但直到您看到租賃到期時才真正知道。我想說的另一件事是，我們看到了一些興趣，一些對長期投資者的早期興趣，這可能會有所幫助。所以我還要說更多。

We have room for one final question and that comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們還有最後一個問題，該問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞（Manan Gosalia）。

I wanted to come back to the NII guide, and I appreciate all the detail on loan growth and deposit betas. Can you talk about how we should think about the impact of securities repricing and the impact of swaps as we think through that 2024 NII?

我想回到 NII 指南，我很欣賞有關貸款增長和存款貝塔的所有細節。您能否談談，在我們思考 2024 年 NII 時，我們應該如何考慮證券重新定價的影響和掉期的影響？

Yes, no problem. On the securities repricing side, not a huge factor. As you know, our speeds, we mature, call it, $2 billion to $3 billion per quarter, and so probably not as big of an impact on -- in terms of upside for '24. But as you think about the swap book, I think I mentioned in the fourth quarter, we had a little bit of a tailwind to the tune of, call it, $20 million to $25 million relative to Q3.

是沒有問題。在證券重新定價方面，這並不是一個重要因素。如你所知，我們的速度，我們成熟了，稱之為每季 20 億至 30 億美元，因此就 24 世紀的上行空間而言，可能不會產生那麼大的影響。但當你想到掉期帳簿時，我想我在第四季度提到過，相對於第三季度，我們有一點順風，可以這麼說，2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。

Our outlook for '24, really interesting enough, the first half, it's a tailwind with some of the payers in our portfolio. But we do have some received fixed swaps that will become effective throughout the course of the year, which will later in the, call it, first half begin to mute the benefit and then by the second half, create a headwind. But for the full year impact, it's actually negligible at least based on the current curve. But that's all factored into our NII outlook.

我們對 24 年的展望非常有趣，上半年，它對我們投資組合中的一些付款人來說是順風順水。但我們確實收到了一些固定掉期，這些掉期將在全年生效，這將在下半年開始削弱收益，然後到下半年，產生阻力。但對於全年影響來說，至少從目前的曲線來看，實際上可以忽略不計。但這都已納入我們的國家資訊基礎設施展望中。

Got it. And just as we think through the sensitivity to the different rate environment, I think you mentioned some forward starting swaps. Is there any more color, any quantification there? Or anything else we need to think through in terms of the impact on NII from any swings in the forward rate assumptions?

知道了。正如我們思考對不同利率環境的敏感度一樣，我認為您提到了一些遠期啟動掉期。還有更多的顏色、任何量化嗎？或者我們需要考慮遠期利率假設的任何波動對NII的影響？

Look, I mean, like we disclosed this. I mean if you look at our swap portfolio, we've got about $30 billion of receivers on today. About $10 billion of those will be effective sort of day 1 this year, and by the end of the year, most will be effective. But again, that's incorporated into our outlook.

聽著，我的意思是，就像我們披露的那樣。我的意思是，如果你看看我們的掉期投資組合，我們今天有大約 300 億美元的接收者。其中約 100 億美元將在今年第一天生效，到今年年底，大部分將生效。但同樣，這已納入我們的展望中。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Brad Milsaps for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給布拉德·米爾薩普斯致閉幕詞。

Okay. That completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your interest in Truist, and we hope you have a great day. Rocco, you may now disconnect the call.

好的。我們的財報電話會議到此結束。如果您還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡投資者關係團隊。感謝您對 Truist 的興趣，祝您度過愉快的一天。 Rocco，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you, sir. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝你，先生。電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。