Truist Financial Corp (TFC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加 Truist Financial Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指令)

  • As a reminder, this event is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brad Milsaps.

    提醒一下,此事件正在記錄中。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人布拉德米爾薩普斯先生。

  • Brad Milsaps - Investor Contact

    Brad Milsaps - Investor Contact

  • Thank you, Betsy and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; our CFO, Mike Maguire; and Chief Risk Officer, Brad Bender; as well as other members of Truist's senior management team.

    謝謝你,貝琪,大家早安。歡迎參加 Truist 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長比爾羅傑斯 (Bill Rogers);我們的財務長 Mike Maguire;以及首席風險長布拉德·本德 (Brad Bender);以及 Truist 高階管理團隊的其他成員。

  • During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's fourth-quarter results, share their perspectives on current business conditions and provide an updated outlook for 2025. The company presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist's Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com.

    在今天早上的電話會議上,他們將討論 Truist 的第四季度業績,分享他們對當前商業狀況的看法並提供 2025 年的最新展望。本公司介紹以及我們的收益報告和補充財務資訊可在 Truist 的投資者關係網站 ir.truist.com 上找到。

  • Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for appropriate reconciliations to GAAP. With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

    我們今天的介紹將包括前瞻性陳述和某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請查看簡報第 2 頁和第 3 頁中有關這些報表和措施的揭露內容以及附錄中與 GAAP 的適當對帳。說完這些,我會把話題交給比爾。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Brad and good morning everyone. And thank you for joining our call today. So before we get started, I want to take a moment to introduce Brad Bender. Brad recently became our Chief Risk Officer. He brings extensive experience across a number of Truist areas including risk, operations, technology, and consumer lending to this role.

    謝謝布拉德,大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。因此,在我們開始之前,我想花點時間介紹布拉德·本德。布拉德最近成為我們的首席風險長。他為該職位帶來了 Truist 多個領域的豐富經驗,包括風險、營運、技術和消費者貸款。

  • Brad's off to a to a great start. He'll continue to carry forward Truist's strong credit culture and risk discipline. Clarke Starnes, I'm really happy he's working closely with Brad on the transition. I'm incredibly grateful for Clarke's impactful 40-plus year career at Truist, most recently serving as our Chief Risk Officer.

    布拉德已經有了一個很好的開始。他將繼續發揚 Truist 強大的信用文化和風險紀律。克拉克·斯塔內斯,我很高興他能與布拉德在過渡期間密切合作。我非常感謝克拉克在 Truist 40 多年的豐富職業生涯,最近他擔任我們的首席風險長。

  • Also, want to thank Beau Cummins for his significant contributions to our company following his announced departure this week. Since 2005, Beau has purposefully served as an instrumental leader at Truist, most recently as Vice Chair and Chief Operating Officer. Both he and Clarke played crucial and formative roles in the merger of equals to create Truist and setting the course for our future.

    此外,也要感謝 Beau Cummins 在本周宣布離職後對我們公司做出的重大貢獻。自 2005 年以來,Beau 一直擔任 Truist 的重要領導者,最近擔任副董事長兼營運長。他和克拉克在平等合併創建 Truist 以及為我們的未來制定方向的過程中都發揮了至關重要且具有影響力的作用。

  • I just can't tell you how much I appreciate their leadership during this time at Truist. They were fantastic partners. I just wish them all the best in their new chapters in their lives.

    我無法告訴你我有多感激他們在 Truist 期間所發揮的領導作用。他們是非常出色的合作夥伴。我只是祝福他們在人生的新篇章中一切順利。

  • All right. So let's -- before turning to fourth-quarter results, let's begin as we always do at Truist with purpose. We are a purpose driven company dedicated to inspiring and building better lives and communities, which is the foundation and guide for how we conduct our business.

    好的。因此,在討論第四季業績之前,讓我們先像 Truist 一貫做的那樣,帶著目標開始。我們是一家目標驅動的公司,致力於激勵和建立更美好的生活和社區,這是我們開展業務的基礎和指南。

  • So one example in the fourth quarter was our response to hurricane Helene. The impact of the hurricane on Western North Carolina was was truly unprecedented. Truist has deep roots in the region and our team was quick to respond, but they were also compelled to play a pivotal role in the area's long-term recovery.

    第四季的一個例子就是我們對颶風海倫的反應。這場颶風對北卡羅來納州西部的影響確實是前所未有的。Truist 在該地區有著深厚的根基,我們的團隊迅速做出了反應,但他們也被迫在該地區的長期復甦中發揮關鍵作用。

  • Aligned with our purpose to inspire and build better lives and communities, we announced a three year $725 million commitment to address critical needs including a focus on small business, housing, and infrastructure projects. By listening to the needs of the community and leveraging our expertise, our capital, partnerships, we believe we can be a catalyst for recovery and growth.

    為了實現激勵和建立更美好生活和社區的目標,我們宣布了一項為期三年、金額達 7.25 億美元的承諾,用於解決關鍵需求,包括重點關注小型企業、住房和基礎設施項目。透過傾聽社區的需求並利用我們的專業知識、資本和合作夥伴關係,我們相信我們可以成為復甦和成長的催化劑。

  • So now turning our results on slide 5. For the fourth quarter, we reported net income available to common shareholders of $1.2 billion or $0.91 a share. For the year, we reported GAAP net income of $4.5 billion or $30.36 a share and adjusted net income of $5 billion or $3.69 per share. Mike's going to provide some more details on quarterly and annual results later in the call.

    現在將我們的結果顯示在投影片 5 上。我們報告第四季普通股股東淨利潤為 12 億美元,即每股 0.91 美元。我們報告的本年度 GAAP 淨收入為 45 億美元或每股 30.36 美元,調整後淨收入為 50 億美元或每股 3.69 美元。麥克將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關季度和年度業績的更多詳細資訊。

  • 2024 was an important year for Truist, and I'm proud of the results our teammates delivered which included executing on several important strategic initiatives, delivering solid underlying earnings, maintaining sound asset quality metrics, and positioning us with strong momentum as we enter 2025. Our solid performance was defined by several key themes.

    2024 年對 Truist 來說是重要的一年,我為我們的隊友所取得的成果感到自豪,其中包括執行了幾項重要的戰略舉措、實現了穩健的潛在收益、保持了良好的資產質量指標,並為我們進入 2025 年奠定了強勁的發展勢頭。我們的出色表現由幾個關鍵主題決定。

  • First, 2024 ended on a strong note with annual adjusted revenue finishing at the high end of our expectations and annual expenses declining 40 basis points. Our adjusted efficiency ratio of 56.3% remained relatively stable on an annual basis, reflecting on ongoing expense discipline and focus on managing cost.

    首先,2024 年以強勁的業績結束,年度調整後收入達到我們預期的高位,年度支出下降 40 個基點。我們的調整後效率比率為 56.3%,在年度基礎上保持相對穩定,這反映了持續的費用控制和對成本管理的關注。

  • In addition on a linked-quarter basis, average deposit balances increased 1.5%, and average loan balances were stable. End of period loans experienced a little over 1% growth as we saw an increase in loan demand due to the results of our focused initiatives in the latter half of the quarter. These factors along with our continued discipline around rate paid on deposits resulted in net interest income, exceeding our expectations for the quarter.

    此外,按季度計算,平均存款餘額增加了1.5%,平均貸款餘額保持穩定。由於本季後半段我們重點推出的措施取得成效,導致貸款需求增加,因此期末貸款成長略高於 1%。這些因素加上我們對存款利率的持續嚴格控制,導致淨利息收入超過了我們對本季的預期。

  • Investment banking and trading revenue increased 46% for the year versus the 2023 as we continue to add talent and expertise to an already strong platform that continues to gain market share. Credit metrics remained solid as non-performing loans held for investment declined $38 million linked quarter while net charge offs increased 4 basis points in the fourth quarter, resulting in losses for the year coming in line with our expectations.

    由於我們繼續為本已強大的平台注入人才和專業知識,並持續獲得市場份額,今年的投資銀行和交易收入較 2023 年增長了 46%。信貸指標保持穩健,因為投資持有的不良貸款環比下降了 3800 萬美元,而第四季度的淨沖銷額增加了 4 個基點,導致全年損失符合我們的預期。

  • Our CET1 capital ratio finished the year at 11.5% which is up 140 basis points versus 2023 due to the gain on the sale of Truist Insurance Holdings and 2024 earnings, partially offset by the strategic balance sheet repositioning completed in May and $3.8 billion of capital we returned to shareholders through a common dividend and the repurchase of $1 billion of our common stock.

    我們的 CET1 資本比率年底為 11.5%,較 2023 年上升 140 個基點,原因是出售 Truist Insurance Holdings 的收益和 2024 年的收益,部分被 5 月份完成的戰略資產負債表重新定位和我們通過普通股股息和回購 10 億美元普通股向股東返所抵銷的 38 億美元還所抵銷。

  • The execution of these important strategic initiatives and resulting relative capital advantage leaves us well positioned to grow our balance sheet and return capital shareholders through our common dividend and our share repurchase program.

    這些重要策略舉措的執行以及由此產生的相對資本優勢,使我們能夠透過普通股股利和股票回購計劃,擴大資產負債表並回報資本股東。

  • In 2025 we're focused on five key areas, all aimed at driving better growth, positive operating leverage, and improved profitability. First, last year was a testament to the attractiveness of our platform. Attracting, developing, and retaining top talent will continue to be our priority.

    2025 年,我們將重點放在五個關鍵領域,旨在推動更好的成長、積極的營運槓桿和提高獲利能力。首先,去年證明了我們平台的吸引力。吸引、培養和留住頂尖人才將繼續是我們的首要任務。

  • Second, we see a material opportunity to deepen existing client relationships within our attractive footprint and especially in areas like premier banking, wealth and payments, all of which represent significant opportunities to capture additional share within our existing client base.

    其次,我們看到了在我們具有吸引力的足跡內深化現有客戶關係的重大機會,特別是在高級銀行、財富和支付等領域,所有這些都代表著在我們現有客戶群中獲取更多份額的重要機會。

  • Third, we also see growth potential beyond the markets where we have strong share, especially in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Texas, where we have smaller but faster growing market share. These are not new markets but areas where we have invested significantly and have great momentum deploying our full Truist capabilities.

    第三,我們也看到了我們佔有強大份額的市場之外的成長潛力,特別是在新澤西州、賓夕法尼亞州和德克薩斯州等州,雖然我們的市場份額較小,但增長速度更快。這些並不是新市場,而是我們已經投入大量資金並在部署 Truist 的全部功能方面擁有巨大動力的領域。

  • We're also optimistic about further expanding into certain verticals in the middle market where we can bring the expertise we provide to larger companies in our investment bank to mid-size companies all across the country.

    我們也對進一步擴展到中端市場的某些垂直領域持樂觀態度,在這些領域,我們可以將我們為投資銀行中大型公司提供的專業知識帶給全國各地的中型公司。

  • Fourth, we'll continue to invest in our technology platform which is improving the client experience, driving new account production, and delivering efficiencies. Finally, we plan to accomplish all of this while maintaining our expense discipline, driving positive operating leverage, and investing in important areas like our risk, infrastructure, and cybersecurity. Maintaining our momentum and executing against these strategic priorities will be the key to driving positive operating leverage this year and showing progress towards our mid-teens medium term ROATCE target.

    第四,我們將繼續投資我們的技術平台,以改善客戶體驗,推動新帳戶的產生,並提高效率。最後,我們計劃在保持費用紀律、推動積極的營運槓桿以及在風險、基礎設施和網路安全等重要領域進行投資的同時實現所有這些目標。保持我們的發展勢頭並執行這些戰略重點將是今年推動積極經營槓桿並朝著我們中期 ROATCE 目標取得進展的關鍵。

  • Before I hand the call over to Mike to discuss our quarterly results, I want to spend a little bit of time discussing the progress we're already making on our strategic priorities and the positive momentum we're seeing within our business segments and with our digital initiatives on slide 6 and 7. In consumer and small business banking, I'm encouraged by our momentum as we experienced an increase in loan production in key focus areas within our lending portfolio. And we continue to acquire key new clients and households both through our digital and traditional channels.

    在我將電話交給麥克討論我們的季度業績之前,我想花一點時間討論一下我們在戰略重點方面已經取得的進展,以及我們在第 6 和第 7 張幻燈片中看到的業務部門和數字計劃中的積極勢頭。在消費者和小型企業銀行業務方面,我對我們的發展勢頭感到鼓舞,因為我們的貸款組合中關鍵重點領域的貸款產量有所增加。我們將繼續透過數位和傳統管道獲取重要的新客戶和家庭。

  • Average consumer loan balances increased 1.2% linked quarter due to the growth in residential mortgage, indirect auto, and important platforms like Sheffield and service finance as we experienced a 5% linked quarter increase in consumer loan production during the quarter.

    由於住宅抵押貸款、間接汽車以及謝菲爾德和服務金融等重要平台的增長,平均消費貸款餘額環比增長了 1.2%,因為我們在本季度經歷了消費貸款產量環比增長 5%。

  • Importantly, we're not sacrificing our credit standards or pricing discipline to drive growth. Credit metrics remained relatively stable and new consumer loan production spreads are accretive to the overall portfolio.

    重要的是,我們不會犧牲我們的信用標準或定價紀律來推動成長。信貸指標保持相對穩定,新的消費貸款生產利差對整體投資組合具有增值作用。

  • Net new checking account growth was once again positive for the year as we added 104,000 new consumer and business accounts. Not only are we adding new households but primacy rates and client retention also continue to increase due to improvements to the client experience and ongoing enhancements to our digital offerings during the year.

    今年我們增加了 104,000 個新的消費者和商業帳戶,淨新支票帳戶成長再次呈正成長。我們不僅增加了新的家庭,而且由於客戶體驗的改善和一年來數位產品的不斷增強,優質客戶率和客戶保留率也持續提高。

  • In wholesale, I'm encouraged by the underlying momentum in terms of improved production, increased wallet share within certain businesses, and the talent that we're attracting to our company. During the quarter, we saw 3% growth in average wholesale deposits, including growth in non-interest-bearing demand.

    在批發方面,我對生產改善、某些業務的錢包份額增加以及我們公司吸引的人才等方面的潛在勢頭感到鼓舞。本季度,我們看到平均批發存款成長 3%,其中非生息需求增加。

  • Although average wholesale loans declined linked quarter, end of period balances increased 50 basis points. We saw increased production and higher commitments in certain key focus areas as clients are in a more offensive posture.

    儘管平均批發貸款環比下降,但期末餘額增加了 50 個基點。由於客戶的態度更加激進,我們看到某些重點關注領域的產量增加,承諾也有所提高。

  • As I previously noted, 2004 represented the strongest capital markets year we've reported since 2021. We experienced record performance and investment grade issuances, equity capital markets, asset securitization, and project finance, while also gaining share in verticals like financial institutions, consumer retail, and health care.

    正如我之前提到的,2004 年是我們自 2021 年以來報告的最強勁的資本市場年份。我們的業績和投資等級發行、股權資本市場、資產證券化和專案融資均創下了歷史新高,同時在金融機構、消費零售和醫療保健等垂直領域的份額也不斷擴大。

  • Our leaders made key new hires through 2024 in commercial banking, corporate banking, investment banking, wealth payments, and a leader of our new middle market initiative. These new experienced teammates are attracted to our purposeful and results-oriented culture and complement our great teams.

    我們的領導階層將在 2024 年前聘用商業銀行、公司銀行、投資銀行、財富支付等領域的重要新員工,並任命一位新中端市場計畫的領導者。這些新的經驗豐富的隊友被我們有目標、以結果為導向的文化所吸引,並與我們優秀的團隊相得益彰。

  • As I mentioned earlier, we have a specific focus on building out our middle market commercial segment. I'm very pleased with our focus and momentum we're already experiencing in production and results.

    正如我之前提到的,我們特別注重拓展中端市場商業領域。我對我們在生產和成果上所集中精力並保持的勢頭感到非常滿意。

  • We also continue to enhance our wholesale digital capabilities by improving the client experience. During the quarter, we launched electronic bill presentment which is a next generation product that gives clients greater control over their billing and payments operations. Enhancing the client experience and growing our digital capabilities are important parts of our strategy, which I'll discuss in more detail on slide 7.

    我們也透過改善客戶體驗繼續增強我們的批發數位化能力。在本季度,我們推出了電子帳單呈現功能,這是下一代產品,可讓客戶更好地控制他們的帳單和支付操作。增強客戶體驗和提升我們的數位能力是我們策略的重要組成部分,我將在第 7 張投影片中詳細討論。

  • Throughout the year, we've invested in our digital platforms to attract new clients to Truist with a focus on shifting existing client behaviors to self service, which drives operational efficiency. As a result of these efforts, we showed strong and steady growth in our digital capabilities as we experienced year-over-year growth in all core metrics while also achieving favorable client experience satisfaction scores.

    全年,我們一直投資於我們的數位平台,以吸引新客戶到 Truist,重點是將現有客戶行為轉變為自助服務,從而提高營運效率。透過這些努力,我們的數位能力表現出強勁而穩定的成長,所有核心指標都實現了同比增長,同時也獲得了良好的客戶體驗滿意度評分。

  • We opened over 730,000 new digital loan and deposits accounts during the year, including nearly 275,000 new-to-bank clients through our digital channels, which represents a [31%] increase over the previous year. We surpassed over 7.1 million active digital users on our platform, client mobile app users grew 7%, and digital transactions increased 13% year over year.

    我們全年開設了超過 73 萬個新的數位貸款和存款帳戶,其中包括透過數位管道開設的近 275,000 個新客戶,比前一年增長了 [31%]。我們平台的活躍數位用戶超過710萬,客戶端行動應用程式用戶成長了7%,數位交易量較去年同期成長了13%。

  • In addition to an increase in account openings and higher digital adoption rates, we're also seeing an improvement in the funding of our digital account openings with balances up significantly over 2023, including growth and balances for millennial and Gen Z clients.

    除了開戶數量增加和數位化採用率提高之外,我們還看到數位帳戶開戶資金的改善,餘額在 2023 年大幅增加,包括千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶的成長和餘額。

  • Investing in the digital client experience continues to be a priority for our company in 2025 and beyond. We expect to continue growing our digital presence with clients as we further leverage our modern and scalable technology platform. So with that, let me turn over to Mike to discuss our financial results in more detail. Mike?

    在 2025 年及以後,投資數位客戶體驗仍將是我們公司的首要任務。隨著我們進一步利用現代化和可擴展的技術平台,我們希望繼續擴大我們在客戶中的數位影響力。因此,請容許我請麥克更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。麥克風?

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Bill and good morning everyone. So I'm going to start with our performance highlights. We reported fourth-quarter 2024 GAAP net income available to common shareholders of $1.2 billion or $0.91 per share. Total revenue decreased 0.5% linked quarter as both net interest income and fees decreased modestly.

    謝謝你,比爾,大家早安。因此,我將從我們的業績亮點開始。我們報告稱,2024 年第四季普通股股東的 GAAP 淨收入為 12 億美元,即每股 0.91 美元。由於淨利息收入和費用均小幅下降,總收入較上季下降 0.5%。

  • Adjusted expenses increased 4% linked quarter. And as we discussed last quarter, this increase was driven by higher professional fees and outside processing expenses related to a number of projects that were initiated later in the year. As bill mentioned earlier, non-interest expenses declined 0.4% in 2024 versus 2023.

    調整後支出較上季成長 4%。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣,這一增長是由於今年稍後啟動的許多項目相關的專業費用和外部處理費用的增加所致。正如比爾先前所提到的,2024 年的非利息支出較 2023 年下降了 0.4%。

  • Moving to capital, our CET1 ratio declined 10 basis points linked quarter to 11.5% as our larger balance sheet, the payment of our common dividend, and share repurchases completed during the quarter offset our current period earnings. From a credit perspective, net charge offs increased 4 basis points on a linked quarter basis and our nonperforming loans declined 1 basis point on a linked quarter basis.

    轉向資本,我們的 CET1 比率環比下降 10 個基點至 11.5%,因為我們的資產負債表擴大、普通股股息支付以及本季度完成的股票回購抵消了我們當期的收益。從信貸角度來看,淨沖銷額較上月增加了 4 個基點,不良貸款較上季減少了 1 個基點。

  • So moving to slide 9, I'll cover loans and leases. Average loans remained relatively stable on a linked quarter basis as a decline in average commercial loans was offset by growth in average consumer loans. Average commercial loans decreased $1.5 billion or 0.8%, primarily due to a decline in CRE and C&I balances, driven by lower production in CRE. Commercial line utilization remained relatively stable on a linked quarter basis.

    所以轉到第 9 張投影片,我將介紹貸款和租賃。平均貸款按季度計算保持相對穩定,因為平均商業貸款的下降被平均消費貸款的成長所抵消。平均商業貸款減少 15 億美元,或 0.8%,主要由於 CRE 產量下降導致 CRE 和 C&I 餘額下降。商業線路利用率按季度計算保持相對穩定。

  • In our consumer portfolio, average loans increased $1.4 billion or 1.2% linked quarter due to growth in indirect auto, residential mortgage, and other consumer. On an end of period basis, loans held for investment increased by $3.3 billion or 1.1%, primarily due to higher residential mortgages, C&I and indirect auto.

    在我們的消費者投資組合中,由於間接汽車、住宅抵押貸款和其他消費的成長,平均貸款較上季增加了 14 億美元或 1.2%。期末,投資持有貸款增加了 33 億美元,增幅為 1.1%,主要原因是住宅抵押貸款、商業與工業貸款以及間接汽車抵押貸款增加。

  • As Bill mentioned, we're encouraged by the increase in end of period loan balances and improved loan production in certain key focus areas during the quarter. This should lead to positive growth in end of period loan balances in 2025.

    正如比爾所提到的,我們對本季期末貸款餘額的增加和某些重點領域貸款產量的提高感到鼓舞。這將導致 2025 年期末貸款餘額實現正成長。

  • Moving to deposit trends on slide 10. Average deposits increased 1.5% sequentially or $5.7 billion, driven by growth in all deposit categories except for time deposits, which were down linked quarter. Average non-interest bearing deposits increased 1.8% and represented 28% of total deposits, which is unchanged compared to the third quarter of 2024.

    前往投影片 10 上的存款趨勢。平均存款環比增長 1.5%,即 57 億美元,這得益於除定期存款外所有存款類別的增長,定期存款環比下降。平均無息存款增加 1.8%,佔總存款的 28%,與 2024 年第三季相比保持不變。

  • During the quarter, we continued to actively manage rate paid, which resulted in a decrease to our deposit costs. Specifically total deposit costs decreased 19 basis points sequentially to 1.89%, which implies a 29% cumulative total deposit beta.

    在本季度,我們繼續積極管理支付利率,從而降低我們的存款成本。具體來說,總存款成本環比下降 19 個基點至 1.89%,這意味著累計總存款貝塔值為 29%。

  • Interest bearing deposit costs decreased by 26 basis points sequentially to 2.62%, representing a 40% cumulative total interest-bearing deposit beta. Overall, we expect average deposit balances to decrease by about 1% in the first quarter due in part to the outflow of seasonally higher municipal deposits.

    計息存款成本較上季下降 26 個基點至 2.62%,累計總計息存款貝塔值為 40%。總體而言,我們預計第一季平均存款餘額將下降約 1%,部分原因是季節性較高的市政存款流出。

  • Moving the net interest income and net interest margin on slide 11. Taxable equivalent net interest income decreased 0.4% linked quarter or $16 million, primarily due to the lag in deposit repricing versus earning asset repricing, which was partially offset by higher earning assets and some benefit from fixed rate asset repricing. Our net interest margin decreased by 5 basis points on a linked quarter basis to 3.07%, due primarily to the previously mentioned beta lag and a larger investment securities portfolio.

    將淨利息收入和淨利息收益率移至投影片 11。應稅等值淨利息收入環比下降 0.4% 或 1600 萬美元,主要原因是存款重新定價相對於生息資產重新定價的滯後,但生息資產的增加和固定利率資產重新定價的部分收益部分抵消了這一影響。我們的淨利差按季度下降 5 個基點至 3.07%,這主要是由於前面提到的貝塔滯後和更大的投資證券組合。

  • Based on our current outlook, we believe that the net interest income will decline by 2% linked quarter due primarily to the impact of two fewer days in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter. And then we would expect it to trend higher in the second quarter of 2025 and throughout the course of the year. As you can see in the charts on the right, we expect net interest income to grow in 2025, driven primarily by low single digit end of period loan growth and the continued benefit from fixed asset repricing of our securities portfolio as well as our fixed rate loan portfolios.

    根據我們目前的預測,我們認為淨利息收入將季減2%,主要原因是第一季相對於第四季少了兩天的影響。然後我們預計它將在 2025 年第二季和全年呈現上升趨勢。正如您在右側圖表中所看到的,我們預計 2025 年淨利息收入將會成長,這主要得益於期末貸款的低個位數成長以及我們的證券投資組合和固定利率貸款組合的固定資產重新定價的持續受益。

  • During the fourth quarter, our average investment securities portfolio totaled $125 billion and carried a weighted average yield of 2.88%, that excludes the impact of pay fixed swaps. We expect to receive approximately $13 billion of cash flows from the investment portfolio throughout the course of 2025 that we anticipate reinvesting at higher yields. These securities roll off at a weighted average yield of 3.08% excluding the impact of pay fixed swaps and based on the current forward curve.

    第四季度,我們的平均投資證券組合總額為 1,250 億美元,加權平均殖利率為 2.88%,不包括固定利率掉期利率的影響。我們預計 2025 年將從投資組合中獲得約 130 億美元的現金流,並預計將以更高的收益率進行再投資。這些證券的加權平均收益率為 3.08%,不包括固定利率掉期的影響,並基於當前的遠期曲線。

  • In addition, our fixed average -- our average fixed rate loan portfolio totaled $135 billion and carried a weighted average yield of 5.38% during the fourth quarter. We anticipate having the opportunity to reprice approximately $42 billion of loans at higher yields during 2025 based on current maturity schedules. These maturities -- maturing loans have a weighted average yield of approximately 6.36%.

    此外,我們的平均固定利率貸款組合總額為 1,350 億美元,第四季的加權平均收益率為 5.38%。根據目前的到期時間表,我們預計 2025 年將有機會對約 420 億美元的貸款進行重新定價,並獲得更高的收益率。這些到期貸款的加權平均收益率約為 6.36%。

  • Before moving on, I also wanted to note that this quarter we added additional disclosure on our swap portfolio and that's on the bottom right-hand corner of the slide. At December 31, we had approximately $84 billion of notional received fixed swaps with a weighted average yield of 3.45%. These swaps are designated against our commercial loan portfolio and long-term debt and designed to protect net interest income from lower short-end rates.

    在繼續之前,我還想指出,本季度我們增加了有關掉期投資組合的額外披露,這在幻燈片的右下角。截至 12 月 31 日,我們收到的名目固定掉期約為 840 億美元,加權平均殖利率為 3.45%。這些掉期交易專門針對我們的商業貸款組合和長期債務,旨在保護淨利息收入免受短期利率下降的影響。

  • Approximately, $45 billion of these swaps were effective at the end of the quarter. The remaining $39 billion of received fixed swaps are forward starting and will become effective over time. Based on our current portfolio at December 31, the effective receive fixed swap position peaks around $63 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025.

    截至本季末,其中約有 450 億美元的掉期交易生效。其餘 390 億美元固定掉期交易將遠期啟動,並隨著時間的推移而生效。根據我們截至 12 月 31 日的當前投資組合,有效接收固定掉期部位在 2025 年第四季達到高峰約 630 億美元。

  • At December 31st, we also had approximately $30 billion of notional pay fixed swaps with a weighted average pay fixed rate at 3.39%. These swaps are designed to protect the economic value of the balance sheet as well as to manage future capital volatility through AOCI as these swaps are designated against our AFS securities portfolio. At December 31, the entire $30 billion pay fixed swap portfolio was effective with approximately half the portfolio carrying a maturity of less than three years.

    截至 12 月 31 日,我們也擁有約 300 億美元的名目薪資固定掉期,加權平均薪資固定利率為 3.39%。這些掉期旨在保護資產負債表的經濟價值以及透過 AOCI 管理未來資本波動,因為這些掉期是針對我們的 AFS 證券投資組合指定的。截至 12 月 31 日,全部 300 億美元的固定利率掉期投資組合均有效,其中約一半的投資組合期限少於 3 年。

  • Okay. Turning the non-interest income on slide 12. Non-interest income decreased to $12 million or 0.9% versus the third quarter. The linked quarter decrease was primarily attributable to lower investment banking and trading income which declined $70 million linked quarter due to lower debt and equity capital markets activity and M&A fees. The decline in investment banking and trading was partially offset by growth in other income service charge on deposits in mortgage banking income.

    好的。將非利息收入轉到第 12 頁。非利息收入較第三季減少至 1,200 萬美元,降幅 0.9%。環比下降主要歸因於投資銀行和交易收入的下降,由於債務和股權資本市場活動以及併購費用的減少,環比下降了 7,000 萬美元。投資銀行和交易業務的下滑被抵押銀行收入中其他存款服務費的成長部分抵銷。

  • Although fourth-quarter investment banking trading income declined on a linked quarter basis, 2024 investment banking and trading revenues increased 46% versus 2023 and represented the highest level since 2021 due to higher transaction activity levels and continued market share gains, which helped drive a 6.2% increase in adjusted noninterest income for the full year 2024.

    儘管第四季度投資銀行交易收入環比下降,但由於交易活動水平提高和市場份額持續增長,2024年投資銀行和交易收入較2023年增長46%,創下2021年以來的最高水平,這有助於推動2024年全年調整後非利息收入增長6.2%。

  • We remain optimistic about our ability to continue to gain share and grow not only in investment banking and trading but also in wealth and payments, where we believe there is significant opportunity to grow within our existing client base. Next, I'll cover non-interest expense on slide 13.

    我們對自己繼續獲得份額和成長的能力仍然持樂觀態度,不僅在投資銀行和交易領域,而且在財富和支付領域,我們相信在現有客戶群中存在巨大的成長機會。接下來,我將在第 13 張投影片上介紹非利息支出。

  • Adjusted noninterest expense, which excludes the impact of restructuring charges and core deposit intangible amortization expense increased 4% linked quarter due to higher professional fees and equipment expense partially offset by lower personnel expense in the quarter.

    調整後的非利息支出(不包括重組費用和核心存款無形攤銷費用的影響)環比增長 4%,原因是本季度專業費用和設備費用增加,但被人員費用的降低部分抵消。

  • On an annual basis, adjusted noninterest expense declined by 0.4% and our adjusted efficiency ratio remained relatively stable. Beginning with the first quarter of 2025, we will begin including core deposit and tangible amortization expense with adjusted expense to make our reporting align and be more comparable with peers.

    按年計算,調整後的非利息支出下降了 0.4%,而我們的調整後效率比率保持相對穩定。從 2025 年第一季開始,我們將開始將核心存款和有形攤銷費用與調整後的費用納入其中,以使我們的報告保持一致並與同行更具可比性。

  • Moving to asset quality on slide 14. Asset quality remained relatively stable on both a like and linked quarter basis. Reflecting our strong credit risk culture and proactive approach to quickly resolving problem loans. During the quarter, our net charge-off ratio increased 4 basis points to 59 basis points, due primarily to seasonally higher consumer losses. Net charge offs of 59 basis points for the year were in line with our expectation of 60 basis points.

    前往投影片 14 上的資產品質。資產品質在同類季度和環比季度中均保持相對穩定。體現了我們強大的信用風險文化和快速解決問題貸款的主動方法。在本季度,我們的淨核銷率增加了 4 個基點,達到 59 個基點,這主要歸因於季節性消費者損失增加。全年淨沖銷額為 59 個基點,符合我們預期的 60 個基點。

  • Our loan loss provision exceeded net charge offs but growth in certain loan portfolios contributed to 1 basis point decrease in our ALLL ratio to 1.59%.

    我們的貸款損失準備超過了淨核銷,但某些貸款組合的成長導致我們的 ALLL 比率下降 1 個基點至 1.59%。

  • Non-performing loans held for investment as a percentage of total loans decreased 1 basis point linked quarter but increased 3 basis points on a light quarter basis to 47 basis points. NPL's have remained in a fairly narrow band of 44 to 48 basis points over the course of the past five quarters.

    投資性不良貸款佔貸款總額的比例較上月下降 1 個基點,但較上季增加 3 個基點,至 47 個基點。過去五個季度中,不良貸款率一直維持在44至48個基點的一個較窄區間內。

  • Included in our appendix is updated data on our office portfolio, which is down $235 million linked quarter and represented 1.5% of total loans. Our office reserve increased from 10.4% to 11.1%.

    我們的附錄中包含了我們辦公室投資組合的最新數據,該投資組合環比下降 2.35 億美元,佔總貸款的 1.5%。我們的辦公室儲備金從10.4%增加到11.1%。

  • Approximately, 5.3% of our office portfolio is currently classified as non-performing compared with 5.1% at September 30. Notably, approximately 18% of our office portfolio is housed within our commercial community banking and wealth segments where loan sizes tend to be more granular, guarantor support more prevalent, and overall losses lower.

    目前,我們辦公室投資組合中約有 5.3% 被歸類為不良資產,而 9 月 30 日這一比例為 5.1%。值得注意的是,我們辦公室投資組合中約有 18% 位於商業社區銀行和財富部門,這些部門的貸款規模往往更加細化、擔保支持更為普遍,總體損失較低。

  • We expect stress to remain in-the office sector and believe that the size of our portfolio is manageable and well reserved. But our position is to remain very proactive in identifying and resolving issues in this portfolio.

    我們預期辦公大樓領域仍將面臨壓力,並相信我們的投資組合規模是可控的且儲備充足。但我們的立場是繼續積極主動地發現和解決該投資組合中的問題。

  • Turning now to capital on slide 15. On a linked quarter basis, our CET1 ratio declined 10 basis points to 11.5% due to the payout of 98% of our earnings via our common dividend and $500 million of share repurchases as well as balance sheet growth. Our CET1 capital ratio including the impact of AOCI decreased from 9.9% to 9.6%, reflecting the aforementioned factors and an increase in AOCI due to the increase in longer term interest rates experienced during the quarter.

    現在轉到第 15 張投影片上的資本。與上一季相比,我們的 CET1 比率下降了 10 個基點,至 11.5%,因為我們透過普通股股息支付了 98% 的收益,並回購了 5 億美元股票,以及資產負債表成長。包括 AOCI 影響在內的 CET1 資本比率從 9.9% 下降至 9.6%,反映了上述因素以及由於本季長期利率上升導致 AOCI 增加。

  • During 2024, our CET1 ratio increased by 140 basis points, which was driven by the sale of Truist Insurance Holdings and retained earnings, partially offset by our strategic balance sheet repositioning, our common dividend, and $1 billion of share repurchases.

    2024 年,我們的 CET1 比率增加了 140 個基點,這主要是由於 Truist Insurance Holdings 的出售和留存收益所致,但部分被我們的戰略資產負債表重新定位、普通股股息和 10 億美元的股票回購所抵消。

  • We continue to believe that our strong capital position gives us the unique ability to utilize our future earnings and AOCI accretion to fund balance sheet growth and to return significant amount of capital to our shareholders.

    我們始終相信,我們強大的資本狀況使我們擁有獨特的能力,利用我們未來的收益和 AOCI 增值來資助資產負債表增長並向股東返還大量資本。

  • Now, I will move to slide 16 and review our guidance for 2025. Looking into the first quarter of 2025, we expect revenue to decrease 2% relative to fourth quarter revenue of $5.1 billion. We expect net interest income to decrease 2% in the first quarter, primarily driven by two fewer days in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter and seasonally lower average deposit balances. This will be partially offset by slightly higher average loan balances.

    現在,我將轉到第 16 張投影片並回顧我們對 2025 年的指導。展望 2025 年第一季度,我們預期營收將相對第四季的 51 億美元下降 2%。我們預計第一季淨利息收入將下降 2%,主要原因是第一季相對於第四季減少了兩天,且季節性平均存款餘額較低。略高的平均貸款餘額將部分抵消此影響。

  • Excluding the impact of day count. We would expect net interest income to remain relatively stable linked quarter. We expect non-interest income to decrease 2.5%, driven primarily by higher investment banking and trading revenue, partially offset by lower other income and service charges on deposits.

    排除天數的影響。我們預計淨利息收入將與上一季相比保持相對穩定。我們預計非利息收入將下降 2.5%,主要原因是投資銀行和交易收入增加,但其他收入和存款服務費的下降部分抵消了這一下降。

  • Adjusted expenses of $3 billion in the fourth quarter, which includes CDI amortization expense are expected to decline by 3% linked quarter as seasonally higher personnel expenses will be offset with lower other expenses and professional fees. As it relates to the buyback, similar to the fourth quarter, we're targeting approximately $500 million of share repurchases in the first quarter of 2025.

    第四季調整後支出為 30 億美元,其中包括 CDI 攤銷費用,預計將比去年同期下降 3%,因為季節性人員費用增加將被其他費用和專業費用的降低所抵消。就回購而言,與第四季類似,我們的目標是在 2025 年第一季回購約 5 億美元的股票。

  • For full year, 2025, we expect revenue to increase by 3% to 3.5% relative to 2024 adjusted revenue of %20.1 billion driven by growth in net interest income and non-interest income. Our net interest income outlook assumes a low single digit end of period loan growth and two reductions in the fed funds rate, including a cut in March and another in September.

    就 2025 年全年而言,我們預計收入將比 2024 年調整後的 201 億美元增長 3% 至 3.5%,這主要得益於淨利息收入和非利息收入的增長。我們的淨利息收入前景假設期末貸款成長率為個位數低位,聯邦基金利率將兩次下調,包括三月和九月的一次下調。

  • We expect noninterest income to increase at a low single digit rate. This expected growth rate reflects the fact that certain fee revenues that were recognized in '24 will not reoccur in 2025. These fees are related to the shared services agreement that was in place following the sale of TIH back in May and six months of revenue associated with Sterling Capital Management, which was also sold around mid-year last year.

    我們預計非利息收入將以低個位數成長。這一預期成長率反映了這樣一個事實,即 24 年確認的某些費用收入將不會在 2025 年再次出現。這些費用與 5 月出售 TIH 後達成的共享服務協議以及與 Sterling Capital Management 相關的六個月收入有關,後者也在去年年中左右出售。

  • We expect full year 2025 adjusted expenses, which include CDI amortization expense to increase approximately 1.5% in 2025 versus 2024. Our '25 revenue and expense outlook implies positive operating leverage of 150 to 200 basis points.

    我們預計 2025 年全年調整後費用(其中包括 CDI 攤銷費用)將比 2024 年增加約 1.5%。我們對'25年收入和支出的預測表明,正營業槓桿將達到150到200個基點。

  • In terms of asset quality, we expect our net charge offs of about 60 basis points in '25, which is stable compared with net charge offs of 59 basis points in 2024. Finally, we expect our effective tax rate to approximate 17% or 20% on a taxable equivalent basis in 2025. I'll now hand it back to Bill for some final remarks.

    在資產品質方面,我們預計 25 年的淨沖銷額約為 60 個基點,與 2024 年的 59 個基點相比保持穩定。最後,我們預計 2025 年我們的有效稅率將按應稅等值約為 17% 或 20%。現在我將把發言權交還給比爾,請他做最後的評論。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Mike. So to conclude, I'm really pleased with the progress we made as a company last year and I'm confident that we have strong momentum with clients and with teammates in this year as our value proposition has just never been stronger.

    謝謝,麥克。總而言之,我對我們公司去年的進步感到非常高興,我相信今年我們與客戶和隊友的合作將保持強勁勢頭,因為我們的價值主張從未如此強大。

  • First, we have an incredible franchise with leading share in high growth markets, we've got motivated and energized teammates and a fulsome set of specialized wholesale and consumer capabilities that our loyal clients value. That kind of relative capital position remains differentiating factor that gives us the ability to grow our core business by serving existing and new clients, invest in our infrastructure, and return considerable amounts of capital to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases over the next several years. All of which we plan to continue doing in 2025.

    首先,我們擁有令人難以置信的特許經營權,在高成長市場中佔有領先地位,我們擁有積極進取、充滿活力的隊友,以及一套完整的專業批發和消費者能力,這些都深受我們忠實客戶青睞。這種相對資本狀況仍然是差異化因素,使我們能夠透過服務現有和新客戶來發展我們的核心業務,投資我們的基礎設施,並在未來幾年以股息和股票回購的形式向我們的股東返還大量資本。我們計劃在 2025 年繼續做這些事。

  • Third, as we execute our strategic growth and capital management priorities, we see a significant opportunity to improve our profitability over the medium term and we would expect to show progress in 2025. Our path to profitability improvementment is multifaceted and a function of decline in business growth while maintaining our cost discipline.

    第三,在執行策略成長和資本管理重點的同時,我們看到了在中期提高獲利能力的重大機會,我們預計在 2025 年將會取得進展。我們提高獲利能力的途徑是多方面的,包括在業務成長放緩的同時保持成本控制。

  • As I discussed earlier, much of the profitability improvement potential we plan is centered on further deepening of existing client relationships and verticals and product lines like wealth, payments, premier, investment banking that already exist at Truist.

    正如我之前所討論的,我們計劃的盈利能力提升潛力大部分都集中在進一步深化現有客戶關係以及 Truist 已經存在的垂直行業和產品線,例如財富、支付、優先、投資銀行。

  • We see opportunities to grow in markets where we have less dominant share like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and particularly, Texas, while also further penetrating the middle market lending segment. The good news is that we see multiple paths and initiatives that with proper execution will result in improved performance, which we expect to show you in 2025.

    我們看到了在新澤西、賓州,尤其是德州等我們份額不太大的市場中成長的機會,同時我們也將進一步滲透中端市場貸款領域。好消息是,我們看到了多種途徑和舉措,只要正確執行就會帶來績效的提高,我們預計在 2025 年將向您展示這一點。

  • Fourth, we plan to accomplish all of this while maintaining our expense discipline, generating positive operating leverage in 2025 and beyond, we'll also continue to invest in talent, technology and our infrastructure.

    第四,我們計劃在保持費用紀律的同時實現所有這些目標,在 2025 年及以後產生積極的營運槓桿,我們也將繼續對人才、技術和基礎設施進行投資。

  • Finally, we never take for granted our strong track record on asset quality as we'll continue to focus on maintaining strong risk, discipline and controls. I'm as optimistic as ever about Truist future, especially in light of the momentum I see every day inside of this company, I'd like to thank all of our teammates and leaders for their incredible purposeful focus and productivity in moving our company forward. I'm so proud to be their teammate. So again, thank you for your interest and investment in Truist and Brad, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

    最後,我們永遠不會將我們在資產品質方面的良好記錄視為理所當然,因為我們將繼續專注於保持強有力的風險、紀律和控制。我對 Truist 的未來一如既往地樂觀,尤其是考慮到我每天看到的公司內部的發展勢頭,我要感謝我們所有的隊友和領導者,感謝他們為推動公司前進所表現出的令人難以置信的專注和高效。我很自豪能夠成為他們的隊友。再次感謝您對 Truist 和 Brad 的關注和投入,現在我把時間交還給您問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    (操作員指示)斯科特·西弗斯 (Scott Siefers)、派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler)。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Mike, appreciate the disclosures on the swap book and the anticipated re pricing opportunities this year. It kind of sounds like after a little bit of a step back in the first quarter, there's just a lot of programmatic opportunities.

    大家早安。感謝您回答這個問題。麥克,我很欣賞掉期帳簿的披露以及今年預期的重新定價機會。這聽起來像是在第一季稍微退後之後,出現了許多程式化機會。

  • So maybe just in sort of simple terms, maybe if you could discuss how much of the building momentum, simply sort of happens versus how much you see is dependent on the external rate environment, I guess, in particular in there and maybe how your thoughts would change if we got either more or fewer cuts than the two you've envisioned in the guidance.

    因此,也許只是用簡單的術語來說,也許你可以討論一下建設勢頭在多大程度上是自然發生的,而不是你看到的取決於外部利率環境,我想,特別是在那裡,也許如果我們的降息幅度比你在指導中設想的兩次更多或更少,你的想法會發生怎樣的變化。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Good morning, Scott. Happy to do that. You know, I think about our NII trajectory and you hit, I think, the first quarter, we're going to experience a little bit of a step back and that's really just day count driven. But from there, we would expect to begin to see positive trend and some of that is sort of a continuous expectation that we'll begin to see end of period balance growth occur throughout the course of the year, again, relatively modest.

    是的。早安,史考特。很高興這麼做。你知道,我考慮我們的 NII 軌跡,我認為,在第一季度,我們將會經歷一點倒退,而這實際上只是由天數計算驅動的。但從那時起,我們預計將開始看到積極的趨勢,其中一些是一種持續的預期,我們將開始看到期末餘額增長在全年出現,而且這種增長相對溫和。

  • The betas on the deposit side are catching up, essentially will become fully caught up in the first quarter. So we really do begin to see, I think, some benefit there. And I think as we came into the cutting cycle, that was maybe more of a question around where these betas might start. We're very pleased by the 40% that we were able to achieve in the first quarter or -- the fourth quarter and have an expectation that we'll be in the mid 40%-plus in the first on our way to 50% next year.

    存款方面的貝塔係數正在迎頭趕上,基本上將在第一季完全趕上。因此我認為我們確實開始看到其中的一些好處。我認為,當我們進入削減週期時,可能更重要的是這些測試版可能從哪裡開始。我們對第一季或第四季實現的 40% 的成長率感到非常高興,我們預計第一季的成長率將達到 40% 以上,明年將達到 50% 左右。

  • So I think, that's the primary drivers of our outlook for next year are just that some modest loan and deposit growth coupled with the fact that the betas are where they are. In terms of the fed rate path, you know, we've got the two cuts in now in March and September. I think if we were to see later cuts, fewer cuts, even no cuts, that would present a touch of a headwind, but I think manageable frankly, inside of our guide to the extent that the short end was a little lower and we saw maybe sooner cuts or more cuts. I think that's a touch of a good guy. But again, we do have, I think, our sensitivity at least to the short end relatively neutral.

    因此,我認為,我們對明年前景的主要驅動因素是適度的貸款和存款成長,加上貝塔係數目前的水平。就聯準會利率路徑而言,我們已經在三月和九月兩次降息。我認為,如果我們看到更晚的降息、更少的降息,甚至沒有降息,那將帶來一點阻力,但坦白說,我認為在我們的指南中,短期降息幅度稍微低一些,我們可能會看到更早的降息或更多的降息。我認為這是個好人。但是,我認為,我們至少對短期的敏感度是相對中性的。

  • I mean one other factor that we're keeping our eye on like others frankly is just the shape of the curve. You know, today's curve is, I think, attractive and to the extent that we can hang on to a long end that does benefit the fixed loan and the securities repricing. That's something we have our eyes on as well.

    我的意思是,坦白說,我們和其他人一樣關注的另一個因素是曲線的形狀。你知道,我認為今天的曲線很有吸引力,而且只要我們能夠堅持較長的時間,這確實有利於固定貸款和證券重新定價。這也是我們所關注的事情。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you for that color. And then within the sort of the loan balance comment, so it sounds like fairly modest -- positive but modest loan growth expected. Maybe just sort of some additional broader thoughts on kind of where your customers are, how you might expect that loan demand to evolve as the year progresses.

    完美的。謝謝你的色彩。然後在貸款餘額評論中,這聽起來相當溫和 - 預計貸款增長為正但溫和。也許只是一些更廣泛的想法,例如您的客戶在哪裡,您預計隨著時間的推移貸款需求將如何變化。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • As Mike noted, I mean, we're not building a lot of loan growth into the forecast, but we started the year with some momentum. So sort of small single digit end of period kind of loan growth. What we're seeing is the benefit of our activity. So the things that we've been investing in and the opportunities that we see in our markets, which are then confer to recover a little bit faster than the rest of the country. So maybe if I'll just dissect it a little bit if that'll be helpful.

    正如麥克所說,我們的預測中並沒有包含太多的貸款成長,但今年我們以一定的勢頭開始發展。因此,期末貸款成長率大致為個位數。我們看到的是我們的活動所帶來的好處。因此,我們一直在投資的項目和我們在市場中看到的機會將使我們的復甦速度比全國其他地區快一點。因此,如果我稍微分析一下它,也許會有幫助。

  • So in the consumer side, our efforts in indirect auto, service, finance, and mortgage led to the growth there. And I expect those to continue. I mean, those are places where we're leaning in. As I said, in my comments also not compromising on price or structure or credit. So that's good.

    因此,在消費者方面,我們在間接汽車、服務、金融和抵押貸款方面的努力推動了該領域的成長。我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。我的意思是,這些都是我們所依賴的地方。正如我所說,我的評論也不會在價格、結構或信貸上妥協。這很好。

  • And on the C&I side, we saw some production increase in the fourth quarter, particularly at the end of the fourth quarter. Utilization ticked up slightly, but I'll just say slightly. And similarly, the commitments have gone up. The quality of the growth is significant. Middle market, significant production there. The quality of the things that we're doing in our commercial segment or in our overall C&I segments at a 50% increase in syndicated deals. Half of those are new to Truist; half were left lead.

    在商業和工業方面,我們看到第四季的產量增加,尤其是在第四季末。利用率略有上升,但我只說略有上升。同樣,承諾也增加了。增長品質十分重要。中端市場,產量顯著。我們在商業領域或整體 C&I 領域所做工作的品質使銀團交易增加了 50%。其中有一半是 Truist 的新用戶;一半領先。

  • So the things that we're focused on are working. So in addition to seeing a little bit of an uptick, I'm really probably most excited about the quality of what we're putting on. And the accretive nature of those relationships long term.

    所以,我們關注的事情正在發揮作用。因此,除了看到一點點的上漲之外,我最興奮的可能是我們所做產品的品質。以及這些關係的長期增值性質。

  • In terms of client sentiment is to your question, I think clients are certainly more expansionary. I think that reflects in the commitment. So we've seen more increase in commitments. So I think clients are telling us that they're building for the future in terms of opportunities to invest.

    就您提出的問題而言,客戶情緒方面,我認為客戶肯定更具擴張性。我認為這體現在承諾中。因此,我們看到承諾進一步增加。所以我認為客戶告訴我們他們正在為未來的投資機會做準備。

  • I think the real linchpin or the fulcrum point will come an M&A. So I think, depending on how much M&A we see will be an accelerate to anything that we might project. And today that's a lot of dialogue. We have to see that show up in some more action but a lot more dialogue around all that. Hope that was helpful, Scott.

    我認為真正的關鍵點或支點將會是併購。因此我認為,我們看到的併購數量將會加速我們可能預測的任何事情。今天有很多這樣的對話。我們必須看到這一點在更多的行動中顯現出來,但圍繞著這一切還有更多的對話。希望這對你有幫助,斯科特。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's terrific. So thank you guys very much.

    是的,太棒了。非常感謝你們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Good morning. I just wanted to follow up, Bill, I think I heard you a couple of times call out, in particular, in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas. Just talk to us in terms of the growth opportunity that you see there. Should we expect new branch openings, hiring of teams? Or could these be markets that are attractive even from a bank M&A perspective?

    早安.我只是想跟進一下,比爾,我想我聽到你幾次呼籲,特別是在新澤西、賓夕法尼亞和德克薩斯。請與我們談談您在那裡看到的成長機會。我們是否應該期待新分公司的開設和團隊的招募?或者即使從銀行併購的角度來看,這些市場也是有吸引力的?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me sort of go into that. I mean, remember, these are markets that we've been in for over a decade in most cases. So this isn't new in terms of markets. But it is new in terms of investment and momentum and the things that we can offer those markets. So if you think about just the expansive nature of the products and capabilities.

    是的。讓我詳細闡述一下這一點。我的意思是,請記住,大多數情況下我們已經進入這些市場十多年了。所以從市場角度來說這並不是什麼新鮮事。但從投資和動力以及我們能為這些市場提供的東西來看,這都是新的。因此,如果您只考慮產品和功能的擴充性。

  • And then we've just got great leaders who are bringing those to the benefit of our clients. As far as new bankers, we're seeing that. I mean in those markets, we've added about 25 new bankers to our existing platforms. People are attracted to this opportunity.

    然後我們就有了優秀的領導者,他們將把這些帶給我們的客戶利益。就新銀行家而言,我們看到了這一點。我的意思是在這些市場,我們在現有平台上增加了約 25 位新銀行家。人們被這個機會所吸引。

  • In terms of production and fee income growth, I mean, they're big numbers off a smaller basis, 80%, 70% kind of activity in those markets alone. Take Philadelphia and Texas, we did about $3.5 billion of loan production. So this is sort of new incremental on top of that. And in Texas, specifically, we added about 5,000 net new clients. so you can sort of see the impact of that.

    就生產和費用收入成長而言,我的意思是,它們在較小基礎上實現了巨大的數字,僅在這些市場中的活動就達到了 80%、70%。以費城和德州為例,我們發放了約 35 億美元的貸款。因此,這算是在此基礎上的一種新增量。具體來說,在德州,我們新增了約 5,000 名新客戶。所以你就可以看出它的影響。

  • I do think you'll continue to see more expansion from us in there. So that's maybe more to come and more dialogue this year as we think about the full network, not only in terms of bankers, but in branches and other types of investments we're making in those markets.

    我確實認為您將繼續看到我們在那裡進一步擴張。因此,當我們考慮整個網路時,今年可能會有更多內容和對話,不僅包括銀行家,還包括我們在這些市場上的分行和其他類型的投資。

  • And I think in fairness to the last part of the question, I think that will be organic. I think we've got really good organic momentum. So I like the opportunities that we have there. The teams on the field are really strong and areas that we're leaning into.

    我認為,公平地回答問題的最後一部分,這將是有機的。我認為我們擁有非常好的有機發展勢頭。所以我喜歡我們在那裡擁有的機會。球場上的隊伍非常強大,而且是我們傾向的領域。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And I guess just sticking with that theme across the Southeast, maybe remind us again in terms of you still hear concerns around talent attrition in your market from competitors. Just give us your sense of confidence level around that these two franchises have been meshed, you feel good about defending market share or potentially growing market share from here when we think about deposits in your sort of legacy, SunTrust, BB&T markets?

    這很有幫助。我想,只要堅持東南部的這個主題,也許會再次提醒我們,您仍然會聽到競爭對手對您所在市場的人才流失表示擔憂。請告訴我們您對這兩個特許經營權已經融合的信心水平,當我們考慮您所在的傳統市場、SunTrust、BB&T 市場的存款時,您是否對捍衛市場份額或潛在地增加市場份額感到滿意?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean you see that in the results. So you see that in the quarter. I mean, we've had good momentum against the balance sheet. I talked about net new, so I do feel good about not only defending but actually leaning into the markets that we serve in these fantastic markets.

    是的。我的意思是您可以在結果中看到這一點。因此您會在本季度看到這一點。我的意思是,我們的資產負債表表現良好。我談到了淨新價值,因此我不僅對捍衛我們所服務的這些奇妙市場感到高興,而且實際上也傾向於這些市場。

  • We've lost some teams, and we've added some teams. I mean, there's a reality of that of the size company that we are. We've added a lot of great talent. I mean our leaders have really done a fantastic job attracting teams to the value proposition. So the teams that we have on the field and their capacity and ability to deliver against our value proposition has never been better.

    我們失去了一些球隊,也增加了一些球隊。我的意思是,就我們這樣的公司規模而言,確實存在這樣的現實。我們吸收了許多優秀人才。我的意思是,我們的領導在吸引團隊接受價值主張方面確實做得非常出色。因此,我們在球場上的團隊以及他們實現我們價值主張的能力從未如此出色。

  • So we've added a lot. I feel really good. As I mentioned in my comments, our focus is going to be on attracting, developing, and retaining great teammates who can deliver against this Truist value proposition. So the answer is we're in not just a defensive but we're in an offensive position in our markets and fully prepared, and we see the results and momentum of that.

    因此我們添加了很多內容。我感覺非常好。正如我在評論中提到的,我們的重點是吸引、培養和留住能夠實現 Truist 價值主張的優秀隊友。因此答案是我們在市場上不只是處於防守地位,而且處於進攻地位,我們做好了充分的準備,而且我們看到了這樣做的結果和勢頭。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • We too. Thanks, Bill.

    我們也是。謝謝,比爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

  • Matt O’Connor - Analyst

    Matt O’Connor - Analyst

  • Good morning. Can you guys talk about how you're thinking about targeted capital levels over time? Obviously, there's still some potential changes coming on the regulatory side, including CCAR. But just without having all the details on that, just the thought process.

    早安.你們能談談對長期目標資本水準的看法嗎?顯然,監管方面仍可能出現一些變化,包括 CCAR。但只是沒有關於這方面的所有細節,而只是思考過程。

  • And then also just related to that, are there other opportunities to tweak the preferred stock. You had some redemptions this quarter, and obviously, that impacts the business going forward. Thanks.

    然後也與此相關的是,是否有其他機會來調整優先股。本季你們進行了一些贖回,顯然,這會影響未來的業務。謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Good morning, Matt. Look, we recently talked about a longer-term target in the 10% area for CET1. I don't think we have an updated view on that thinking. Obviously, where we sit today with current rules and some expectation that there'll be changes to rules, we're at 11.5%. If you were to adjust that number for AOCI, we're kind of 9.6%area.

    早安,馬特。你看,我們最近談到了 CET1 10% 範圍的長期目標。我認為我們對於這種想法還沒有更新的看法。顯然,按照目前的規則,以及對規則將會改變的某些預期,我們的比例是 11.5%。如果您要調整 AOCI 的數字,我們的面積大約是 9.6%。

  • So we're thinking about -- today's measurement, we're thinking about the likelihood of a new rule and think still that sort of that 10% area is a reasonable expectation for you guys to have.

    所以我們正在考慮——今天的測量,我們正在考慮新規則的可能性,並且仍然認為 10% 的區域是你們合理的預期。

  • Look, there's a lot in motion right now. And I think as we see more cards turn, there will be an opportunity for us to maybe update our perspective if that's appropriate.

    你看,現在有很多事情正在發生。我認為,隨著我們看到更多牌面的轉變,如果合適的話,我們將有機會更新我們的觀點。

  • On the press, we did -- we've done some liability management over the last couple of quarters. You'll see that continue on a total capital basis. We're in good shape. And so just capturing some of that benefit where we see opportunity is really sort of what you saw there?

    在媒體方面,我們在過去幾季做了一些責任管理。你會看到,這一趨勢在總資本基礎上持續存在。我們的情況很好。那麼,抓住我們看到的機會中的一些好處,這真的是您所看到的嗎?

  • Matt O’Connor - Analyst

    Matt O’Connor - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And the 10%, I assume is including the AOCI.

    好的。這很有幫助。我認為這 10% 包括 AOCI。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. And I think that's a perspective that the rule will evolve. You know, again, I think it would be difficult to speculate on all the various other impacts. You know, there's been a lot of discussion around the impact on RWA inflation or otherwise. But if you just were to think about AOCI especially, that's what's driving my guide there.

    是的。我認為,這是規則將會演變的一個觀點。你知道,我再說一次,認為很難推測所有其他影響。您知道,關於對 RWA 通膨或其他方面的影響已經有很多討論。但如果您只是特別考慮 AOCI,這就是我的指南的驅動力。

  • Matt O’Connor - Analyst

    Matt O’Connor - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just squeezing in, what's the duration of the securities book? I know you had some ads this quarter or last two quarters, but what's the current duration? And then I'm done. Thanks.

    好的。然後擠進去,證券帳簿的期限是多久?我知道您本季或過去兩季投放了一些廣告,但目前的持續時間是多久?然後我就完成了。謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, obviously, the AFS portfolios, shorter just given the work we did this spring with the repositioning. So on a net basis with the payers, our AFS durations in the low 3%s, our HTM portfolio obviously is extended. It's closer to 7% and on a net basis combined mid-4%s.

    是的,顯然,考慮到我們今年春天進行的重新定位工作,AFS 投資組合的規模將會縮短。因此,按照付款人的淨額計算,我們的 AFS 期限在 3% 以下,我們的 HTM 投資組合顯然得到了延長。它更接近 7%,以淨基礎計算,合併後利率為 4% 左右。

  • Matt O’Connor - Analyst

    Matt O’Connor - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安(Erika Najarian)。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I guess my first question is for Bill. I know clearly there's a macro aspect to the return of lending growth, and you have just modest assumptions in your net interest income outlook or revenue outlook. But maybe could you talk to us about how some of the growth might be impacted by some of the changes that you've made to leadership maybe and like incentive comp and the way you go to market because clearly there's a macro aspect to it, but there also seems to be a true specific aspect where you're sort of emerging from defense and offense.

    嗨,早安。我想我的第一個問題是針對比爾的。我清楚地知道貸款成長的回歸有一個宏觀方面,而你對淨利息收入前景或收入前景只是做出了適度的假設。但也許您能否與我們談談您對領導層所做的某些改變可能會對增長產生怎樣的影響,例如激勵薪酬和您進入市場的方式,因為這顯然有一個宏觀方面,但似乎也有一個真正的具體方面,即您如何從防守和進攻中脫穎而出。

  • And to that end, you made some announcements in terms of leadership. I feel like that was received fairly well by investors. But perhaps some comments on you in terms of what message would you like us to take away from the changes in leadership that you announced this week?

    為此,你們在領導方面做了一些聲明。我覺得投資人對此的反應相當不錯。但也許有人想問一下,您希望我們從您本周宣布的領導層變動中得到什麼訊息?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean you sort of in a couple of different tributaries there. But look, overall, and I said this, I think, on the answer earlier question, I mean, the talent that we're investing in are teammates who, I think, can really lead this organization in the future. They really know our value proposition in terms of where we're going.

    是的。我的意思是你在那裡有幾種不同的支流。但總的來說,我在回答之前的問題時就說過,我認為,我們投資的人才是隊友,我認為,他們未來真正能夠領導這個組織。他們確實了解我們的價值主張以及我們的發展方向。

  • And in terms of this week, I mean, we had our -- Beau departed our company. I mentioned earlier, great career, really did a lot of important things in terms of establishing the framework for the future. And then we took the opportunity to take some of those responsibilities and distribute them among some of my existing leaders.

    就本周而言,博 (Beau) 離開了我們公司。我前面提到過,偉大的事業,在建立未來的框架方面確實做了很多重要的事情。然後,我們藉此機會承擔一些責任,並將其分配給我的一些現有領導者。

  • So that gives them some more opportunity to grow and some more opportunities to expand their tool kits. I feel really, really, really good about that. And then as you mentioned, there have been some other key important leadership hires along the way that I think will be important parts of our future. So I don't think there's a story there other than we have a great franchise, and we're attracting really good people to our franchise. We have existing teammates who have really expanded their tool kits. We have great leaders who really understand and know and how to attract and retain really strong talent.

    這為他們提供了更多的成長機會和擴展工具包的機會。我對此感覺非常非常非常好。正如您所說,我們還聘用了一些其他重要的關鍵領導人,我認為他們將成為我們未來的重要組成部分。因此,我認為除了我們擁有出色的特許經營權並吸引優秀人才加入我們的特許經營權之外,沒有什麼故事了。我們現有的隊友確實擴充了他們的工具包。我們擁有優秀的領導者,他們真正懂得如何吸引和留住真正優秀的人才。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • And Eric, maybe I'd just add to that a little bit. I mean another dynamic, obviously, is post the sale of TIH, the capital position we find ourselves and I think also gives our teammates a lot of confidence. I mean we have a very sort of pro-growth agenda, and that's -- we're doing a lot of senior and banker hiring in our commercial and wholesale businesses.

    艾瑞克,也許我只想補充一點。我的意思是,另一個動態顯然是在 TIH 出售後,我們發現了資本狀況,我認為這也給了我們的隊友很大的信心。我的意思是,我們有一個非常有利於成長的議程,那就是——我們在商業和批發業務中招募大量高級人才和銀行家。

  • You're seeing that pull through in terms of activity levels. And we're trying to activate capital across our consumer lending platforms. And so those are very defensible, strong businesses that we think have good growth potential.

    就活動水平而言,您已經看到了這種拉動。我們正在嘗試透過我們的消費者藉貸平台來啟動資本。因此,我們認為這些都是非常有防禦能力、實力雄厚、具有良好成長潛力的業務。

  • So I think there's just a clarity of focus on growth in the client and you're starting to see that pull through. And I think that's going to obviously gives us a lot of confidence as we go into the year. And I think you're right. I think our expectations for low single-digit growth are relatively modest. So we're just focused on execution.

    因此,我認為,我們只是明確地關注客戶的成長,而您已經開始看到這種成長。我認為這顯然會在我們進入新的一年時給予我們很大的信心。我認為你是對的。我認為,我們對低個位數成長的預期相對溫和。因此我們只關注執行。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And the second question is a lot more boring. On slide 11, on the $45 billion in active received fixed swaps by year end, how does that progress quarterly from 12/31/24 to 12/31/25 in terms of the (multiple speakers) changing, yeah?

    第二個問題就無聊多了。在第 11 張投影片上,關於年底前 450 億美元的主動收到的固定掉期,從 2024 年 12 月 31 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,季度變化情況如何?

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. It's -- so we're $45 billion in the fourth quarter. That stage relatively consistent in the first quarter. So I think it ticks up maybe we've got another $1 billion effective. In the second and third quarter, I think you see a little bit of a step up. And by the fourth, you're peaking at $63 billion.

    是的。所以—我們第四季的銷售額是 450 億美元。這一階段與第一季相對一致。因此我認為,也許我們又可以有效獲得 10 億美元。在第二季度和第三季度,我認為你會看到一些進步。到第四個季度,這一數字將達到高峰 630 億美元。

  • So I think you could probably model almost straight line, Ericka, between kind of $46 billion and $60 billion. I think we see a touch more come on in the third, but. And the [$30 billion] of payers are on for the whole year. So we're net $15 billion effective received Q1 and think of it as net $30 billion received effective Q4.

    所以我認為你可能可以建模出幾乎是直線的數字,艾莉卡,介於 460 億美元和 600 億美元之間。我認為我們會在第三場比賽中看到更多的進展,但是。而 [300 億美元] 的付款人需要支付全年費用。因此,我們第一季的淨收入為 150 億美元,而第四季的淨收入為 300 億美元。

  • Which -- and just to say it as well as to get where you're going, if you think about sort of the impact on NII throughout the course of '25, our expectation is that it will actually be relatively stable because as you have more of the receivers coming on in kind of the mid-3s, again, at least with our baseline view is you pick up a cut sometime in the first half and again in the second half. And so those factors really offset one another. So we see the hedge impact net relatively consistent throughout the course of '25. And it's really not very different than what we saw in Q4 of '24.

    也就是說,如果你想想在整個 25 年期間對 NII 的影響,我們預計它實際上會相對穩定,因為隨著你有更多的接收器在 3 秒中出現,再次,至少從我們的基本觀點來看,你會在上半場和下半場的某個時候獲得一個切口。所以這些因素其實是相互抵消的。因此,我們看到對沖影響淨值在整個 25 年期間相對一致。這與我們在 24 年第四季看到的情況並沒有太大不同。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you. Got it.

    謝謝。知道了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I did want to just drill down into the expense outlook a little bit here. Maybe you could help us understand what's the driver behind the expense declines in the first quarter Q2, down 3% and then on the outlook for the full year revenue growth, 3% to 3.5%, expense growth only 1.5%. So help us understand how you're anticipating managing to that type of outcome, especially in an environment where capital markets is pretty strong and there's a comp payout ratio there. Thank you.

    嗨,早安。我確實想在這裡稍微深入探討一下費用前景。也許您可以幫助我們了解第一季第二季費用下降背後的原因,下降了 3%,然後展望全年營收成長 3% 至 3.5%,費用僅成長 1.5%。因此,請幫助我們了解您如何預期實現這種結果,特別是在資本市場相當強勁且有薪酬派息率的環境下。謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. For the quarter, the decline is just -- we had some elevated professional fees in the fourth quarter. We had slightly higher other expense, some ops losses in the fourth quarter. So seeing those come off that benefit might -- so is some of the change there, Betsy. We would expect, after the increase in the first, to begin to smooth out for the rest of the year.

    當然。就本季而言,下降只是——我們的專業費用在第四季度有所增加。我們的其他支出在第四季度略有增加,並出現了一些營運損失。因此,看到這些從中受益的人可能會 — — 那裡的一些變化也是如此,貝琪。我們預計,在首次成長之後,今年剩餘時間的成長將開始趨於平穩。

  • If you look at '25, I think your question is, is there an expectation that maybe upside in capital markets might drive us higher on full year expenses. I mean certainly, the comp correlation with certain of our businesses does tend to be more variable in wealth and in investment banking, but we think that 1.5% level captures sort of the baseline outlook that we're providing to you. We'd be delighted to see revenue exceed our expectations based on higher market levels, activity levels and to see our expense outlook drift with it.

    如果你看一下25年,我想你的問題是,是否預期資本市場的上行可能會推動我們全年支出增加。我的意思是,當然,在財富和投資銀行業務中,我們某些業務的綜合相關性確​​實趨於更加多變,但我們認為 1.5% 的水平反映了我們向您提供的基線前景。我們很高興看到收入超出我們的預期,這得益於更高的市場水平和活動水平,我們的支出前景也隨之變化。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Just to maybe add to that -- in that existing guidance, I mean, we've had really good consistent, low double-digit kind of performance in investment banking. And I expect that to continue. So this is built into this.

    是的。也許可以補充一點——在現有指導中,我的意思是,我們在投資銀行業務方面一直保持著非常好的、一致的、低兩位數的表現。我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。這是內建的。

  • And we also continue to have efficiency points. So those are offset against those. So think about this year, we had the best year in investment banking, and we were down 40 basis points of expenses. So this is an environment where we continue to have efficiencies against the investment are all oriented towards that consistency in the efficiency ratio and creating and sustaining positive operating leverage.

    而且我們還要持續保持效率點。因此這些與這些相抵消。想想今年,這是我們投資銀行業務最好的一年,但費用卻下降了 40 個基點。因此,在這種環境下,我們繼續提高投資效率,全部致力於保持效率比率的一致性以及創造和維持積極的經營槓桿。

  • So we don't want this to be a onetime thing. We want this to be a sustainable platform. So our teams look at the investment side and the savings side with the same level of intensity.

    所以我們不希望這只是一次性的事情。我們希望這是一個可持續發展的平台。因此,我們的團隊以同樣的努力關注投資方面和儲蓄方面。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • Yes. No, I totally get it, and it's a significant amount of operating leverage here, 1.5 percentage points at the low end of the range at 2 percentage points. So I was wondering if there's much in the way of recouping prior investment spend with tech getting turned off, et cetera, that's helping keep this expense outlook at 1.5% and keeping it from -- creeping up to 2% or 2.5%.

    是的。不,我完全明白,這裡的經營槓桿率相當大,低端為 1.5 個百分點,高端為 2 個百分點。所以我想知道,在技術關閉等情況下,是否有很多方法可以收回先前的投資支出,從而幫助將這一支出前景保持在 1.5% 左右,並防止其攀升至 2% 或 2.5%。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • A lot of it is -- if you think about the strategy that we've talked about, a lot of these are investments that we've already made. As you think about in the merger, so we created a lot of opportunities in terms of new products and new capabilities, new consolidated platforms, et cetera, et cetera.

    其中很多——如果你考慮我們所談論的策略,你會發現很多都是我們已經做出的投資。正如您所考慮的合併,我們在新產品、新功能、新的整合平台等方面創造了許多機會。

  • And the crux of our strategic focus is expanding with existing clients. So these are products and capabilities and markets and places where we've already invested, and it's leveraging that investment. So it has, by its nature, high returns, so do they high ROA kind of components to it and really good leverage.

    我們策略重點的關鍵是擴大現有客戶。這些都是我們已經投資的產品、能力、市場和地點,並且正在利用這些投資。因此,從本質上講,它具有高回報,因此其 ROA 成分也很高,而且槓桿率也非常好。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore.

    約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari),Evercore。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • On the -- just real quick back to the expense guide, I agree lower than we would have forecasted. Could you just remind us what are the most material areas of investment that you flagged. What are the most meaningful that are impacting your expense outlook right now? And then given where this guide is, which is notably reasonable, do you have flexibility if revenue was weaker given this guide where it stands now? Thanks.

    關於—只是快速回到費用指南,我同意這比我們預測的要低。您能否提醒我們您提到的最重要的投資領域是什麼?目前對您的支出前景影響最重大的因素是什麼?然後,考慮到這個指南的合理性,如果根據目前的指南,收入較弱,您是否有彈性?謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So the primary investments on the expense side are some of the things we've talked about. So they're related -- some are directly related to the revenue side. So Investment Bank is one we talked about has direct correlation. Also, the continued investment in the risk infrastructure as we build out our company.

    是的。因此,我們已經討論過費用方面的主要投資。所以它們是相關的——有些與收入方面直接相關。因此,我們談論的投資銀行具有直接相關性。此外,隨著我們公司的發展,我們將繼續對風險基礎設施進行投資。

  • I mean we're a bigger company, and we're continuing to grow. So we have to have a strong risk infrastructure, strong cybersecurity structure. So those will continue to be growing investments.

    我的意思是,我們是一家更大的公司,而且還在繼續發展。因此,我們必須擁有強大的風險基礎設施和強大的網路安全結構。因此這些投資將持續成長。

  • And then the toggles, we talked about the toggle on the upside, the toggle on the downside. I mean, we have a commitment to positive operating leverage. So if we -- Mike talked about earlier, if we talk on the upside, that's one opportunity; and if we have to take on the downside, we know how to do that as well.

    然後是切換,我們討論了上側的切換,下側的切換。我的意思是,我們致力於實現積極的經營槓桿。所以如果我們 — — 麥克之前談到的,如果我們談論好的方面,那就是一個機會;如果我們必須承擔不利因素,我們也知道如何做。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • John, I would just add. I mean, we're hiring talent across the Board right now. So whether it being well the commercial or corporate or investment banking, we're hiring premier bankers. We're hiring area leaders.

    約翰,我只想補充一下。我的意思是,我們現在正在全面招募人才。因此,無論是商業銀行、企業銀行或投資銀行,我們都在招募頂尖的銀行家。我們正在招募區域領導人。

  • We're hiring people to go drive our growth agenda. We're also investing in products. We've talked a lot about the opportunity we believe we have. For example, in treasury, we're adding -- we've invested in our trading capabilities in our investment bank. You heard Bill talk about deepening our penetration in some of our markets where we think we have an opportunity to do so.

    我們正在招募人才來推動我們的成長議程。我們也在對產品進行投資。我們已經談論了很多我們認為我們擁有的機會。例如,在財務方面,我們正在增加——我們已經投資了我們投資銀行的交易能力。您聽到比爾談到深化我們在某些​​市場的滲透,我們認為我們有機會這樣做。

  • So I think those are all areas where you're seeing some incremental growth. But just recall, and this is for Betsy too, like we're giving you a net number. I mean the work we were doing in '24 to manage expenses and drive efficiency continues in 2025. So we're looking at sourcing. We're looking at all the various levers you would expect us to be focused on to drive that outlook.

    所以我認為這些都是你會看到逐步成長的領域。但請記住,這也適用於 Betsy,就像我們給了你一個淨數字。我的意思是,我們在 2024 年為管理費用和提高效率而進行的工作將在 2025 年繼續進行。因此,我們正在尋找貨源。我們正在研究您所期望我們關注的所有各種槓桿,以推動這一前景。

  • And look, just to say it as well, just with the focus on operating leverage, we feel pretty good about the revenue outlook we've provided. We don't think we've got heroic loan growth in our outlook. And we've got a pretty good curve. And so we feel pretty good as we turn the page on '24, moving to '25.

    而且,同樣地,只專注於經營槓桿,我們對我們提供的收入前景感到十分滿意。我們認為,我們的貸款前景不會有驚人的成長。我們得到了非常好的曲線。當我們翻過24年的新篇章、邁向25年的新篇章時,我們感到非常高興。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Great. All right. Thanks, Mike. And then just separately, back to the capital front. I hear you in terms of the 10% CET1 target, you've already guided to about another quarter of $500 million buybacks in the first quarter. Is that a reasonable pace as we look over the remainder of the year, just given your current capital position? Or could that slow a bit if loan growth picks up more meaningfully than your modest assumption at this point?

    偉大的。好的。謝謝,麥克。然後就分開,回到首都前線。我聽說,就 10% CET1 目標而言,您已經指導第一季再進行約 5 億美元的回購。考慮到您目前的資本狀況,展望今年剩餘時間的表現,這是否是合理的速度?或者,如果貸款成長比你目前的溫和假設更有意義地回升,那麼這一速度是否會放緩?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. John, the good news is we've got ample capital to sort of stay at that pace. So we're in the, I think, unique position that we can grow and distribute capital. So I think we'll -- right now on, let's call it, short term to medium term, I think we anticipate staying at that pace in terms of the share buyback. We'd love to have dramatic loan growth that would change that.

    是的。約翰,好消息是我們有足夠的資金來維持這種速度。因此我認為,我們處於一個獨特的地位,可以發展和分配資本。因此我認為,從現在起,我們稱之為短期到中期,我認為我們預期股票回購將保持這樣的速度。我們希望貸款大幅成長能夠改變這一現狀。

  • But the good news is that we can accommodate a good level of loan growth, and we can accommodate share buybacks. So I think we're in a really good position to ensure the future of our company and reward shareholders along the way.

    但好消息是,我們可以適應良好的貸款成長,也可以適應股票回購。因此我認為我們處於非常有利的地位,可以確保公司的未來並回報股東。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay, great. Thanks Bill.

    知道了。好的,太好了。謝謝比爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Saul Martinez, HSBC.

    匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯(Saul Martinez)。

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

    Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Good morning guys. First of all, I just wanted to clarify the revenue guidance of 3%, 3.5%. I think the non-interest income guide is low single digits, which I assume, is 1% to 3%, which would imply NII growth is a little bit above that range. Is that right? I might be stating the obvious, but I just wanted to clarify nonetheless.

    大家早安。首先,我只想澄清3%、3.5%的收入預期。我認為非利息收入指南是低個位數,我假設是 1% 到 3%,這意味著 NII 成長略高於該範圍。是嗎?我可能說的是顯而易見的事情,但我只是想澄清一下。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • No, you've got it right. Maybe a couple of things on that. The NII guide, our outlook is better headline than fees. But I did mention in the prepared remarks, and it's worth mentioning again the transactions that we completed last year, the sale of TIH and the related transition services agreement that we entered into and which generated at least in '24, some temporary fee income and then the sale of Sterling, which is in the '24 numbers, but of course, wouldn't be in the '25 numbers; that does impact that headline fee income outlook, right?

    不,你說對了。或許有幾件事。根據 NII 指南,我們的前景看好標題而非費用。但我在準備好的評論中確實提到過,值得再次提及的是我們去年完成的交易,出售 TIH 以及我們簽訂的相關過渡服務協議,該協議至少在 '24 年產生了一些臨時費用收入,然後是出售 Sterling,這在 '24 年的數字中,但當然不會在 '25 年的數字中;這確實會影響整體費用收入前景,對嗎?

  • So we're guiding with those items in '24. So I think if you were to exclude those items that won't reoccur in '25, our fee outlook would actually like on the core businesses, be more like a mid-single-digit outlook.

    因此,我們將在 24 年指導這些項目。因此,我認為,如果排除那些在 25 年不會再次出現的項目,我們的費用前景實際上會像核心業務一樣,更像是中等個位數的前景。

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

    Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Got it. So on a quarter basis, it's more mid-single digits. Okay. And I guess a follow-up question, fixed rate loans, $42 billion running off at a yield of $636 million, which is higher than the portfolio yield. It seems to imply some of the higher margin loans rolling off.

    知道了。因此按季度計算,該數字更接近中等個位數。好的。我想接下來的問題是,固定利率貸款 420 億美元,收益率為 6.36 億美元,高於投資組合收益率。這似乎意味著一些高保證金貸款將被取消。

  • But what is -- what's -- how do we think about the new money rates on that $42 billion? What kind of a incremental spread are we getting there?

    但是,我們如何看待這 420 億美元的新貨幣利率?我們將獲得什麼樣的增量傳播呢?

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think on a -- we're not changing our mix. We're not changing our risk appetite. So I don't want to imply that there's a change in like the core spread. But if you're looking at the run on yield versus the runoff yield, I think you've got, with today's curve, 100 basis points or better run on rate for the fixed rate loans versus the runoff rate. And on the bonds, that's better.

    我認為—我們不會改變我們的組合。我們不會改變我們的風險偏好。所以我不想暗示核心利差改變了。但如果您比較流動收益率與流失收益率,我認為,根據今天的曲線,固定利率貸款的流動收益率與流失收益率之比應為 100 個基點或更高。就債券而言,情況更好。

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

    Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. So that's -- I mean, doing the math, it's like $400 million more or less on that $42 billion annualized. Okay. That's helpful.

    好的。知道了。所以 — — 我的意思是,算一下,這比每年 420 億美元的數字多了或少了 4 億美元。好的。這很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

    (操作員指示)富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • I guess, for a couple of years during the merger, you lost some market share in the Southeast. And now you're going -- you've been on more offense. And obviously, prior to here, you mentioned Pennsylvania and New Jersey when it looks like you have so much opportunity in the Southeast.

    我想,在合併期間的幾年裡,你們在東南部失去了一些市場份額。現在你要——你的進攻更加積極了。顯然,在此之前,您提到了賓夕法尼亞州和新澤西州,而東南部似乎有很多機會。

  • So I'm just trying to figure out why you mentioned those markets specifically now, what's changed? And what are the mechanics in terms of turning the corner in terms of that core deposit market share, whether it's in the Southeast or Pennsylvania, New Jersey.

    所以我只是想知道為什麼你現在特別提到這些市場,發生了什麼變化?無論是在東南部或賓州、紐澤西州,核心存款市場佔有率實現轉變的機制是什麼?

  • And I get it, it's all included in your expense guide. So if you're doing a lot more marketing or branch builds or hiring, it's all in that expense number, which we got. But maybe if you could just unpack that a little bit, how you get from the investments to the execution of better deposit share in those markets? Thank you.

    我明白了,這些都包含在您的費用指南中。因此,如果你進行更多的行銷、分支機構建立或招聘,這些都包含在我們得到的費用數字中。但是,如果您可以稍微解釋一下,您如何從投資到在這些市場中實現更好的存款份額的執行?謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Mike, you saw some of the deposit growth this quarter and some of the momentum that we see on that. So we're in -- when you do a merger, we've exceeded what people have told us so market share challenges are from a merger. And we're -- I feel like a really strong pivot in those markets in terms of product capability, and opportunities that exist there.

    是的,麥克,你看到了本季存款的一些成長以及我們看到的一些勢頭。所以當我們進行合併時,我們已經超出了人們告訴我們的範圍,所以市場份額挑戰來自合併。而且我感覺,就產品能力以及存在的機會而言,這些市場確實存在著強大的支點。

  • So I think we're making good progress on that front. And then you mentioned what you mentioned Texas and why you mentioned these other markets, they are also our markets. So these are not -- these are places where we've been for a long time, and we're continuing to expand.

    所以我認為我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。然後你提到了你提到的德州以及為什麼提到這些其他市場,它們也是我們的市場。所以這些不是——這些是我們已經存在很長時間的地方,而且我們正在繼續擴張。

  • And I mentioned those just in the sense of there's also opportunities to gain really disproportionately and quickly. So not only defend and grow, but also be offensive and grow in other markets on the incremental side. So it's just a function of trying to paint the whole picture of what is what Truist looks like.

    我提到這些只是為了表示也有機會獲得真正不成比例的快速收益。因此,不僅要防守和發展,還要進攻並在其他市場實現增量成長。所以它只是一個試圖描繪 Truist 的完整畫面的功能。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • I guess I'm just -- from your decades of experience, Bill, I mean, are the banking battles heating up? It just seems like everybody's going into everybody else's backyard to compete. On the other hand, the crazies are off the street from -- before the financial crisis. So what's the competitive dynamics right now? Is it intense? Is it good? Is it rational?

    我想我只是──從你幾十年的經驗來看,比爾,我的意思是,銀行業之爭是否正在升溫?看起來好像每個人都進入了別人的後院去競爭。另一方面,從金融危機爆發之前開始,瘋狂分子就已經消失了。那麼目前的競爭態勢如何?激烈嗎?好嗎?這是合理的嗎?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, since you pointed to my decades of experience. So the decades of my experience have always been in really good markets. And those markets have always been really competitive. So I don't think it's particularly different in the sense that they've always been really competitive.

    是的,因為你指出了我幾十年的經驗。所以我幾十年的經驗都是在非常好的市場中累積的。這些市場競爭一直非常激烈。因此,我認為就他們一直都很有競爭力而言,這並沒有什麼特別的不同。

  • We have smart players in our markets. I think that's an advantage because we're one of the smart players as well. I think our capacity and ability to compete has never been better. So I think we're positioned really well. But good markets are highly competitive. I mean, that's the advantage of being at them.

    我們的市場上有聰明的參與者。我認為這是一個優勢,因為我們也是聰明的玩家之一。我認為我們的實力和競爭能力從未如此好。因此我認為我們的定位非常好。但好的市場競爭非常激烈。我的意思是,這就是在那裡的優勢。

  • And they grow disproportionately faster. So you can be competitive in a market and continue to grow. And that's what I think we see in terms of that opportunity. So I don't think we see -- I guess you used the term, but I don't think we see crazy pricing. I don't think we see unreasonable competition.

    而且它們的成長速度異常快。這樣,您就可以在市場上保持競爭力並持續發展。我認為這就是我們所看到的機會。所以我不認為我們看到——我想你用了這個術語,但我不認為我們看到瘋狂的定價。我認為我們沒有看到不合理的競爭。

  • As I said, we have really smart, large competitors, and we have a really strong value proposition to win and you see that. You see that a net new is like one of the primary examples, but you see our capacity to win against those competitors.

    正如我所說,我們擁有非常聰明、強大的競爭對手,我們擁有非常強大的價值主張來贏得勝利,這一點您也看到了。您會發現,網路新聞就像一個主要例子,但您會看到我們有能力戰勝那些競爭對手。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks. Mike.

    是的。謝謝。麥克風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

    加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Hi Bill. IHi, Mike. Can you guys share with us -- you've had real success in the investment banking business. And I think it represents now about 21% of your fee revenues in 2024, up from 15% in 2023. And as a percentage of total revenues, it's now about 9% versus about 4%.

    你好,比爾。嗨,麥克。你們能否與我們分享你們在投資銀行業務中取得的真正成功。我認為到 2024 年,它佔費用收入的約 21%,高於 2023 年的 15%。佔總收入的百分比現在約為 9%,而之前約為 4%。

  • Can you share with us where you see that going. Are you comfortable at these levels relative to the total pie or can you grow it further where it could get to 15%, maybe of total revenues or --? I'm kind of curious on how you're looking for the growth opportunities.

    您能否與我們分享您對此的看法?相對於總收入而言,你對這些水平感到滿意嗎?--?我有點好奇您是如何尋找成長機會的。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Gerard, thank you for the acknowledgment of the strength of the investment banking business. I mean this has been an organic build over long periods of time. We have had sort of a consistent low double-digit kind of CAGR over time, and I think we can continue to be at that pace. So I feel really good about that.

    是的。傑拉德,感謝您對投資銀行業務實力的認可。我的意思是,這是一個經過長期有機累積的過程。隨著時間的推移,我們一直保持著較低的兩位數複合年增長率,我認為我們可以繼續保持這樣的速度。所以我對此感覺非常好。

  • As we've talked about in the past, our business also is really predicated on a middle market focus, and it's predicated on a focus on our existing client base. So I also see the opportunity for less volatility over time because we're focused on our clients and our capability to expand into that.

    正如我們過去談到的,我們的業務實際上也是以中端市場為重點,並以我們現有的客戶群為重點。因此,我還看到了隨著時間的推移波動性減少的機會,因為我們專注於我們的客戶以及我們擴展到客戶的能力。

  • Really good return characteristics. So we also run the business well. It's an efficient business. It's a really smart user of capital in terms of its strategy. So I think we can continue to grow this business as being a part of it. We also want the rest of the business payments, wealth, all those other components to also grow. So we don't get disproportionate in any place because that diversity of fee income and that diversity of balance sheet are also important to the overall equation.

    確實很好的回報特性。所以我們也把生意經營得很好。這是一項高效率的業務。從策略角度來看,它確實是一位聰明的資本使用者。因此我認為我們可以作為其中的一部分繼續發展這項業務。我們也希望其餘的業務支付、財富以及所有其他組成部分也能成長。因此,我們在任何地方都不會出現不成比例的情況,因為費用收入的多樣性和資產負債表的多樣性對整體方程式也很重要。

  • So a little bit steady as she goes. We're not putting the governor on that business because we see the opportunities and we like the way that it's built in terms of its efficient operation, really good use of capital and strategic focus against Truist as a whole.

    所以她走的時候要稍微穩定一點。我們不會讓州長負責這項業務,因為我們看到了機遇,我們喜歡它高效的運作方式、良好的資本利用方式和針對 Truist 整體的戰略重點。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And I forgot to mention, if Clarke is sitting in the room, congratulations on your retirement. Good luck. Thank you, Bill.

    非常好。我忘了說,如果克拉克坐在房間裡,恭喜你退休。祝你好運。謝謝你,比爾。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks for that great comment about Clarke and well deserved as you know.

    感謝您對克拉克的精彩評論,正如您所知,這是他應得的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brad Milsaps for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給布拉德·米爾薩普斯,請他作最後發言。

  • Brad Milsaps - Investor Contact

    Brad Milsaps - Investor Contact

  • Okay. Thank you. That completes our call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the investor relations team. Thank you for your interest and trust and we hope you have a great day. Betsy, you may now disconnect the call.

    好的。謝謝。我們的通話就此結束。如果您有其他問題,請隨時聯絡投資者關係團隊。感謝您的關注和信任,我們希望您度過愉快的一天。貝琪,你現在可以掛斷電話了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。