Truist Financial Corp (TFC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation Second Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Truist Financial Corporation 第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製提醒。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brad Milsaps, Head of Investor Relations, Truist Financial Corporation.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，Truist Financial Corporation 投資者關係主管 Brad Milsaps 先生。

Thank you, Karen, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; and our CFO, Mike Maguire. During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's second quarter results, share their perspectives on current business conditions and provide an updated outlook for 2023. Clarke Starnes, our Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer; Beau Cummins, our Vice Chair; and John Howard, Truist Insurance Holdings' Chairman and CEO, are also in attendance and available to participate in the Q&A portion of our call.

謝謝你，凱倫，大家早上好。歡迎參加 Truist 的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官比爾·羅傑斯 (Bill Rogers)；和我們的首席財務官邁克·馬奎爾。在今天上午的電話會議中，他們將討論 Truist 第二季度業績，分享他們對當前業務狀況的看法，並提供 2023 年的最新展望。 Beau Cummins，我們的副主席； Truist Insurance Holdings 董事長兼首席執行官約翰·霍華德 (John Howard) 也出席了會議，並可以參加我們電話會議的問答部分。

The accompanying presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on Slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for appropriate reconciliations to GAAP.

隨附的演示文稿以及我們的收益發布和補充財務信息可在 Truist 投資者關係網站 ir.truist.com 上獲取。我們今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述和某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請查看演示文稿幻燈片 2 和幻燈片 3 中有關這些聲明和措施的披露信息以及附錄，以根據 GAAP 進行適當調整。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Bill.

有了這個，我現在就把它交給比爾。

Thanks, Brad, and welcome to the team. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call today. I don't think it's a surprise to anybody on this call that the increasing levels of uncertainty in our economy, the impact of interest rates on funding cost and a new sort of post-March operating environment for our industry are impacting our results and plans, Truist though was specifically built to increase our flexibility to respond to any condition to fulfill our purpose and commitment to all stakeholders.

謝謝布拉德，歡迎加入我們的團隊。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我認為這次電話會議上的任何人都不會感到驚訝，因為我們經濟中不斷增加的不確定性、利率對融資成本的影響以及我們行業的 3 月後新的運營環境正在影響我們的業績和計劃，但 Truist 是專門為提高我們應對任何條件的靈活性而建立的，以實現我們的目的和對所有利益相關者的承諾。

Capital and liquidity have taken on an increase focused and although Truist is currently well positioned, we're also intentionally building future flexibility. This environment also challenges us to move faster with greater intensity to tighten our strategic focus and rightsize our expense chassis to reflect the new realities.

資本和流動性已開始集中增長，儘管 Truist 目前處於有利位置，但我們也在有意構建未來的靈活性。這種環境還要求我們更快、更大力度地採取行動，以加強我們的戰略重點，並調整我們的開支框架，以反映新的現實。

We also have flexibility in strengthening our balance sheet to support our focus on our unique core client base and market opportunity. These decisions are less incremental and more time bound than the ones previously made during our shift from integrating to operating. Mike will highlight some of these decisions in his comments, and I'll close with some of the underlying momentum.

我們還可以靈活地加強我們的資產負債表，以支持我們專注於我們獨特的核心客戶群和市場機會。與我們之前從整合轉向運營期間做出的決策相比，這些決策增量較少，而且時間限制較多。邁克將在他的評論中強調其中一些決定，我將以一些潛在的動力作為結束語。

While these changes will be manifested over time, this is not business as usual and reflects an important and significant pivot for Truist and for our leadership team. We'll provide more details about these topics and our second quarter results throughout the presentation.

雖然這些變化將隨著時間的推移而顯現出來，但這並不像往常一樣，它反映了 Truist 和我們的領導團隊的一個重要且重大的轉變。我們將在整個演示過程中提供有關這些主題和第二季度業績的更多詳細信息。

Before we do that, let me start what I always do on Slide 4 on purpose, mission and values. Truist is a purpose-driven company dedicated to inspiring and building better lives in the communities. I'd like to share some of the ways we brought that purpose to life last quarter. In May, we announced the launch of Truist Long Game, our mobile app that leverages behavioral economics to reward clients for building financial wellness. At a high level, user set goals, save money and earn rewards that are deposited into a Truist account as they make progress towards their savings goals.

在此之前，讓我先開始我在幻燈片 4 上經常做的事情：目的、使命和價值觀。 Truist 是一家以目標為導向的公司，致力於激勵和建設更美好的社區生活。我想分享上個季度我們實現這一目標的一些方法。五月，我們宣布推出 Truist Long Game，這是我們的移動應用程序，利用行為經濟學來獎勵客戶建立財務健康。在較高層面上，用戶設定目標、存錢並賺取獎勵，當他們在實現儲蓄目標方面取得進展時，這些獎勵將存入 Truist 賬戶。

Based on early data, users tend to play 4 to 5x a week with strong retention, and we've seen positive trends towards new client acquisition. This is also the first product from our Truist Foundry, our very own start-up tasked with creating digital solutions to help meet clients where they are.

根據早期數據，用戶往往每週玩 4 到 5 次，並且保留率很高，而且我們已經看到了新客戶獲取的積極趨勢。這也是我們的 Truist Foundry 的第一個產品，這是我們自己的初創公司，其任務是創建數字解決方案，以幫助滿足客戶的需求。

Truist is also highlighting small business owners through our small business community heroes initiative, which is all about focusing on the small business owners who worked tirelessly to serve our neighbors, create jobs and build our communities and help drive our economy. Our branch teammates are visiting and connecting with tens of thousands of small business clients to say thank you and have a caring conversation to assist with their unique needs. The response so far has really been excellent, and our outreach efforts has helped drive a 31% increase in net new small business checking accounts during the second quarter alone.

Truist 還通過我們的小企業社區英雄計劃來強調小企業主，該計劃旨在關注那些不知疲倦地為我們的鄰居服務、創造就業機會、建設我們的社區並幫助推動我們的經濟的小企業主。我們的分行團隊成員正在拜訪並與數以萬計的小型企業客戶建立聯繫，以表示感謝並進行關懷性對話，以幫助滿足他們的獨特需求。到目前為止，反應確實非常好，我們的外展工作僅在第二季度就幫助推動淨新小型企業支票賬戶增長了 31%。

Lastly, I want to thank our teammates who dedicated more than [16,000] hours during the second quarter to volunteer in their communities. Really proud of the good work our company and our teammates are doing to live on our purpose and to make a difference in the lives of their clients, teammates and communities.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊成員，他們在第二季度投入了超過 [16,000] 個小時在社區做志願者。我們公司和我們的團隊成員為了實現我們的目標，並為客戶、團隊成員和社區的生活帶來改變，所做的出色工作讓我們感到非常自豪。

So let's turn to the second quarter performance highlights on Slide 6. Second quarter results were mixed overall. Net income available to common in the second quarter was $1.2 billion or $0.92 a share. EPS decreased 16% relative to the year ago quarter, primarily due to a higher loan loss provision and noninterest expense, partially offset by higher net interest income. EPS decreased 12% sequentially as higher funding costs pressured net interest income. Total revenue decreased 2.9% sequentially, consistent with our revised guidance and a 6.1% decrease in net interest income was partially offset by a 2.6% increase in fee income, led by record results at Truist Insurance Holdings.

因此，讓我們轉向幻燈片 6 上的第二季度業績亮點。第二季度的業績總體上好壞參半。第二季度普通股淨利潤為 12 億美元，即每股 0.92 美元。每股收益較去年同期下降 16%，主要是由於貸款損失撥備和非利息支出增加，但被淨利息收入增加部分抵消。由於融資成本上升對淨利息收入造成壓力，每股收益環比下降 12%。總收入環比下降 2.9%，與我們修訂後的指引一致，淨利息收入 6.1% 的下降被費用收入 2.6% 的增長部分抵消，其中 Truist Insurance Holdings 創紀錄的業績帶動了費用收入的增長。

Adjusted expenses were within our existing guidance range, although we're actively working to manage costs even more intensely. Loan balances were relatively stable, and we're pleased with the initial progress we've made to reposition the balance sheet for higher-return core assets, especially in consumer, though there's always additional work to do. Average deposits were down 2%, largely due to client activity in March though overall deposit trends have stabilized significantly since that time frame and our conversations with our clients in our pipelines have improved.

儘管我們正在積極努力更加嚴格地管理成本，但調整後的費用仍在我們現有的指導範圍內。貸款餘額相對穩定，我們對為高回報核心資產（尤其是消費者資產）重新定位資產負債表所取得的初步進展感到滿意，儘管總有額外的工作要做。平均存款下降了 2%，主要是由於 3 月份的客戶活動，儘管自那段時間以來總體存款趨勢已顯著穩定，而且我們與管道中客戶的對話也有所改善。

We're also prudently increasing our provision and allowance due to increased economic uncertainty. At the same time, our CET1 capital ratio increased 50 basis points, driven by organic capital generation and the sale of a 20% stake in our Insurance business. These same factors drove a 5% increase in tangible book value per share from March 31. Our stress capital buffer increased from 250 basis points to 290 basis points, higher than we think our steady-state business model warrants, but still a good performance as Truist had the fourth lowest loan loss rate among traditional banks that participate in the stress test reflecting, again, our conservative credit culture and diverse loan portfolio.

由於經濟不確定性增加，我們還謹慎地增加撥備和津貼。與此同時，在有機資本生成和出售保險業務 20% 股權的推動下，我們的 CET1 資本比率增加了 50 個基點。這些相同因素推動每股有形賬面價值自 3 月 31 日起增長了 5%。我們的壓力資本緩衝從 250 個基點增加到 290 個基點，高於我們認為我們的穩態業務模式所保證的水平，但仍然表現良好，因為 Truist 的貸款損失率在參與壓力測試的傳統銀行中排名第四，再次反映出我們保守的信貸文化和多樣化的貸款組合。

We also announced plans to maintain our strong quarterly common stock dividend at $0.52 a share, subject to Board approval. Strategically, we continue to optimize our franchise and focus our resources on our core clients and businesses, which is why we made the strategic decision to sell a $5 billion non-core student loan portfolio at net carrying value, which has no upfront P&L impact.

我們還宣布計劃將強勁的季度普通股股息維持在每股 0.52 美元，但須經董事會批准。從戰略上講，我們繼續優化我們的特許經營權，並將資源集中在我們的核心客戶和業務上，這就是為什麼我們做出戰略決策，以賬面淨值出售 50 億美元的非核心學生貸款組合，這對前期損益沒有影響。

We're also making solid progress towards shifting our loan mix towards higher-return core assets. As we adapt to the current environment, we're highly focused on doubling down on our core franchise, simplifying where it makes sense, rationalizing our expenses and building capital, all of which we'll address later in the presentation.

我們在將貸款組合轉向回報率更高的核心資產方面也取得了紮實進展。當我們適應當前環境時，我們高度關注加倍我們的核心特許經營權，簡化有意義的地方，合理化我們的支出和建立資本，所有這些我們將在稍後的演示中討論。

So moving to the digital and technology update on Slide 7. Digital engagement trends remain positive, reinforcing the importance of continued investment in digital due to its close association with relationship primacy, client experience and account growth. As a proof point, we recently enhanced our digital onboarding experience through a series of platform enhancements, resulting in higher conversion rates for new applications, faster funding and higher average digital account balances.

因此，轉向幻燈片 7 上的數字和技術更新。數字參與趨勢仍然積極，這強化了持續投資數字的重要性，因為它與關係首要性、客戶體驗和客戶增長密切相關。作為一個證明，我們最近通過一系列平台增強功能增強了我們的數字入職體驗，從而提高了新應用程序的轉化率、更快的融資速度和更高的平均數字賬戶餘額。

Our growing mobile app user base is also driving increased transaction volumes. Digital transactions grew 5% sequentially and now account for 61% of total bank transactions. Zelle transactions increased 12% compared to the first quarter and now account for 1/3 of all digital transactions at Truist, which underscores the importance our clients place on our payments and money movement capabilities. Retail digital client satisfaction scores have also returned to their premerger highs. We're proud of our third place ranking in the Javelin 2023 Mobile Banking scorecard.

我們不斷增長的移動應用程序用戶群也推動了交易量的增加。數字交易環比增長 5%，目前佔銀行交易總額的 61%。與第一季度相比，Zelle 交易量增長了 12%，目前佔 Truist 所有數字交易量的 1/3，這凸顯了客戶對我們的支付和資金流動能力的重視。零售數字客戶滿意度評分也恢復到合併前的高點。我們在 Javelin 2023 移動銀行記分卡中排名第三，對此我們感到非常自豪。

From an overall client experience and technology perspective, we continue to enhance our capability set. That includes recent improvements to our cloud-based self-service digital assistant Truist Assist. Since implementing these enhancements several months ago, Truist Assist has hosted over 500,000 conversations with more than 380,000 clients and has connected clients to live agents to support more than 100,000 complex needs via live chat. Over time, increased utilization of Truist Assist should lead to lower volumes in our call centers.

從整體客戶體驗和技術角度來看，我們不斷增強我們的能力。其中包括我們基於雲的自助數字助理 Truist Assist 的最新改進。自幾個月前實施這些增強功能以來，Truist Assist 已與超過 380,000 名客戶進行了超過 500,000 次對話，並將客戶與實時代理連接起來，通過實時聊天支持超過 100,000 個複雜需求。隨著時間的推移，Truist Assist 利用率的提高應該會導致我們呼叫中心的業務量下降。

We're also delivering on our commitment to T3 through the launch of our Truist Insights to our small business heroes earlier this month. Truist Insights empower small businesses by providing actionable insights about financial activities, including cash flows, income and expense and proactive balance monitoring. We first piloted Truist Insights in 2021, and this year alone have generated over 200 million financial insights for more than 4.5 million clients, and we're now delivering this valuable tool to small business.

我們還通過本月早些時候向我們的小企業英雄推出 Truist Insights 來兌現我們對 T3 的承諾。 Truist Insights 通過提供有關財務活動的可行見解（包括現金流、收入和支出以及主動餘額監控）來為小型企業提供支持。我們於 2021 年首次試點 Truist Insights，僅今年就為超過 450 萬客戶生成了超過 2 億條財務見解，現在我們正在向小型企業提供這一有價值的工具。

This is just one more way we're bringing touch and technology together to build trust and to help our small business clients bank with confidence where and how they want. Overall, I'm highly optimistic that our investments in innovation in digital and technology will enhance performance and further improve the client experience.

這只是我們將觸摸和技術結合在一起以建立信任並幫助我們的小型企業客戶放心地在他們想要的地點和方式進行銀行業務的又一種方式。總的來說，我非常樂觀地認為我們在數字和技術創新方面的投資將提高績效並進一步改善客戶體驗。

Let me turn to loans and leases on Slide 8. Loan growth continues to be correlated with the solid progress we've made to shift our loan mix towards more profitable portfolios and core clients while intentionally pulling back from lower yielding in certain single product relationships. Average loan balances were stable sequentially as growth in our Commercial portfolio was largely offset by lower consumer balances.

讓我談談幻燈片 8 上的貸款和租賃。貸款增長繼續與我們在將貸款組合轉向利潤更高的投資組合和核心客戶、同時有意從某些單一產品關係中的較低收益率轉向的同時所取得的紮實進展相關。平均貸款餘額環比穩定，因為我們的商業投資組合的增長在很大程度上被消費者余額下降所抵消。

Commercial loan growth was driven by seasonality in mortgage warehouse lending and continued growth in traditional C&I, which is a core area for us. The decline in average consumer balances was primarily due to indirect auto where we've intentionally reduced production, home equity, residential mortgage and student loan balances also declined, and I'll provide more details about the sale of the student loan portfolio in a few moments.

商業貸款的增長是由抵押貸款倉庫貸款的季節性以及傳統商業和工業的持續增長推動的，這是我們的核心領域。平均消費者余額的下降主要是由於我們有意減少生產的間接汽車，房屋淨值、住宅抵押貸款和學生貸款餘額也有所下降，我將在稍後提供有關學生貸款組合銷售的更多詳細信息。

At the same time, we're seeing strong results from our Service Finance and Sheffield businesses, where second quarter production grew 34% and 21%, respectively, from the year ago quarter. Service Finance continues to perform very well and take market share and consistent with our balance sheet optimization, we'll increase our loan sale opportunities to help support its growth.

與此同時，我們看到服務金融和謝菲爾德業務的強勁業績，第二季度產量較去年同期分別增長 34% 和 21%。服務金融繼續表現良好並佔據市場份額，並且根據我們的資產負債表優化，我們將增加貸款銷售機會以幫助支持其增長。

As I mentioned, we made the strategic decision to sell our $5 billion non-core student loan portfolio, which had been running off at a pace of approximately $400 million per quarter. We sold a student loan book in late June at net carrying value with no upfront P&L impact. Proceeds from the sale were used to reduce other wholesale funding. The transaction will modestly hurt NII but boost NIM and balance sheet efficiency, exactly what we should be doing in an environment where cost of capital and funding has increased meaningfully.

正如我提到的，我們做出了出售 50 億美元非核心學生貸款組合的戰略決策，該貸款組合一直以每季度約 4 億美元的速度流失。我們在六月下旬以賬面淨值出售了學生貸款簿，沒有對前期損益產生影響。銷售收入用於減少其他批發資金。該交易將適度損害NII，但會提高NIM和資產負債表效率，這正是我們在資本和融資成本大幅增加的環境下應該做的事情。

Going forward, we'll continue to better focus our balance sheet on Truist clients who have broader relationships while limiting our exposure to single product and indirect clients as well as evaluate ways to increase the velocity overall of our balance sheet.

展望未來，我們將繼續更好地將資產負債表重點關注擁有更廣泛關係的 Truist 客戶，同時限制我們對單一產品和間接客戶的接觸，並評估提高資產負債表整體速度的方法。

Now let me provide some perspective on overall deposit trends on Slide 9. Average deposits decreased $8.7 billion or 2.1%, primarily due to seasonal tax payments and outflows that occurred late in the first quarter and were consistent with industry impacts of quantitative tightening. We continue to experience remixing within our deposit portfolio as noninterest-bearing deposits decreased to 31% of total deposits from 32% in the first quarter and 34% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

現在讓我對幻燈片 9 上的總體存款趨勢提供一些看法。平均存款減少 87 億美元，即 2.1%，主要是由於第一季度末發生的季節性納稅和資金外流，這與量化緊縮的行業影響一致。我們的存款組合繼續經歷重組，無息存款佔存款總額的比例從 2022 年第一季度的 32% 和第四季度的 34% 下降至 31%。

Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 55 basis points sequentially, and our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta was 44%, up from 36% in the first quarter due to the continued presence of higher rate alternatives and the ongoing shift from noninterest-bearing accounts to higher-yielding products. We continue to maintain a balanced approach in the current environment, being attentive to client needs and relationships while also striving to maximize value outside of [rate paid]. Our continued rollout of Truist One and ongoing investments in [Treasury and Payments are] the bull's-eye of our sharpened strategic focus and will remain critical as we look to acquire new relationships, deepen existing ones and maximize high-quality deposit growth.

計息存款成本環比增加 55 個基點，由於更高利率替代方案的持續存在以及從無息賬戶向高收益產品的持續轉變，我們的累計計息存款貝塔值為 44%，高於第一季度的 36%。在當前環境下，我們繼續保持平衡的做法，關注客戶的需求和關係，同時努力實現[費率]之外的價值最大化。我們持續推出 Truist One 以及對 [財務和支付] 的持續投資是我們強化戰略重點的靶心，並且在我們尋求建立新關係、深化現有關係並最大限度地提高高質量存款增長時仍然至關重要。

Now let me turn it over to Mike to discuss our financial results in a little more detail.

現在讓我把它交給邁克，更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。

Great. Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everybody. I'll begin with net interest income on Slide 10. For the quarter, taxable equivalent net interest income decreased 6.1% sequentially as higher funding costs more than offset the benefits of higher rates on earning assets. Reported net interest margin decreased 26 basis points to 2.91%, due primarily to an acceleration of interest-bearing deposit betas and mix shift out of DDA into other high-cost alternatives.

偉大的。謝謝你，比爾，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 10 上的淨利息收入開始。本季度，應稅等值淨利息收入環比下降 6.1%，因為較高的融資成本足以抵消生息資產較高利率帶來的好處。報告的淨息差下降 26 個基點至 2.91%，這主要是由於計息存款貝塔係數的加速以及從 DDA 轉向其他高成本替代方案的混合轉移。

The lower net interest margin also reflected our liquidity build late in the first quarter. While liquidity remained elevated throughout April and May, it has normalized by June and will provide some modest boost in NIM going forward.

淨息差較低也反映了我們在第一季度末的流動性增加。儘管流動性在 4 月和 5 月期間保持較高水平，但到 6 月已恢復正常，並將為未來的淨息差帶來一定程度的提振。

On a year-over-year basis, net interest income is still up 7.1% and core net interest margin is up 13 basis points. This reflects the cumulative benefit we've seen from the rising rates during the cycle, particularly throughout 2022, though now we are losing some of that benefit in 2023.

與去年同期相比，淨利息收入仍增長7.1%，核心淨息差上升13個基點。這反映了我們在周期內（特別是整個 2022 年）從利率上升中看到的累積效益，儘管現在我們在 2023 年會失去部分效益。

Moving to fee income on Slide 11. Fee income rebounded 2.6% relative to the first quarter. Insurance income increased $122 million sequentially to a record $935 million demonstrating the strength of Truist Insurance Holdings. Year-over-year, organic revenue grew by 9.1%, the highest in 4 quarters, driven by strong new business growth, improved retention and a favorable pricing backdrop.

轉到幻燈片 11 上的費用收入。費用收入較第一季度反彈 2.6%。保險收入連續增加 1.22 億美元，達到創紀錄的 9.35 億美元，證明了 Truist Insurance Holdings 的實力。在新業務強勁增長、保留率提高和有利的定價背景的推動下，有機收入同比增長 9.1%，為 4 個季度以來的最高水平。

Other income increased $65 million primarily due to higher income from our nonqualified plan and higher other investment income. In contrast, investment banking and trading income decreased $50 million, reflecting lower bond originations, loan syndications and asset securitizations as well as lower core trading income from derivatives and credit trading. Finally, mortgage banking income increased -- pardon me, decreased $43 million with most of the decrease related to prior quarter gain on sale of a servicing portfolio.

其他收入增加了 6500 萬美元，主要是由於我們的非合格計劃收入增加以及其他投資收入增加。相比之下，投資銀行和交易收入減少了 5000 萬美元，反映出債券發行、銀團貸款和資產證券化的減少以及衍生品和信貸交易的核心交易收入的減少。最後，抵押貸款銀行收入增加了——請原諒，減少了 4300 萬美元，其中大部分減少與上一季度出售服務組合的收益有關。

Turning to Noninterest expense on Slide 12. Adjusted noninterest expense increased $67 million or 1.9% sequentially. The increase in adjusted expenses reflected a $75 million increase in personnel costs due to higher variable compensation and nonqualified plan expense and a $38 million increase in professional fees associated with enterprise technology and other investments. These increases were partially offset by a $41 million reduction in other expenses due to lower operational losses during the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的非利息支出。調整後的非利息支出環比增加 6,700 萬美元，即 1.9%。調整後費用的增加反映了由於可變薪酬和不合格計劃費用增加而導致的人員成本增加了 7500 萬美元，以及與企業技術和其他投資相關的專業費用增加了 3800 萬美元。由於本季度運營虧損減少，其他費用減少了 4100 萬美元，部分抵消了這些增長。

As a company, we have substantial opportunities to operate more efficiently and are committed to generating expense reductions. On the April earnings call, we discussed a strategic realignment within our Fixed Income Sales & Trading business, in which we discontinued certain market-making activities and services provided by middle market fixed income platforms that had an unattractive ROE.

作為一家公司，我們有大量機會提高運營效率，並致力於減少開支。在四月份的財報電話會議上，我們討論了固定收益銷售和交易業務的戰略調整，其中我們停止了淨資產收益率不具吸引力的中間市場固定收益平台提供的某些做市活動和服務。

We also identified various expense reduction activities that had already been underway, including realigning our LightStream platform to our broader consumer business and ongoing capacity adjustments to market-sensitive businesses such as mortgage. We're actively working to identify and accelerate additional actions that could be implemented over the course of the next 12 to 18 months to generate cost reductions to reflect efficiency opportunities and changing conditions.

我們還確定了已經在進行的各種費用削減活動，包括根據更廣泛的消費者業務重新調整我們的 LightStream 平台，以及對抵押貸款等市場敏感業務進行持續的產能調整。我們正在積極努力確定並加速在未來 12 至 18 個月內實施的其他行動，以降低成本，以反映效率機會和不斷變化的條件。

These actions include taking a much more aggressive approach towards FTE management, realigning and consolidating businesses to advance our long-term strategy, rationalizing our tech spend to drive more efficient and effective delivery and optimizing our operations in contact centers, which will help us transform Truist into a more effective and efficient company. Taken together, we believe these actions will increase our focus, double down on our core, simplify our business, bend the expense curve and enhance returns for our shareholders.

這些行動包括採取更積極的 FTE 管理方法、重新調整和整合業務以推進我們的長期戰略、合理化我們的技術支出以推動更高效和有效的交付以及優化我們在聯絡中心的運營，這將幫助我們將 Truist 轉變為一家更加有效和高效的公司。總的來說，我們相信這些行動將提高我們的專注度，加倍我們的核心，簡化我們的業務，彎曲費用曲線並提高股東的回報。

Moving to Slide 13. Asset quality metrics reflected continued normalization during the second quarter. Nonperforming loans rose 11 basis points, primarily due to increases in our CRE and C&I portfolios, though they remain manageable at 47 basis points. While the increase in CRE nonperforming loans include some office, these loans are generally paying as agreed.

轉到幻燈片 13。資產質量指標反映了第二季度的持續正常化。不良貸款上升 11 個基點，主要是由於我們的 CRE 和 C&I 投資組合增加，但仍處於 47 個基點的可控範圍內。雖然商業地產不良貸款的增加包括一些寫字樓，但這些貸款一般都按約定償還。

Our net charge-off ratio was 54 basis points, inclusive of a 12 basis point impact from the sale of the student loan portfolio. Excluding the student loan sale, net charge-offs were 42 basis points, up 5 basis points sequentially. We would also note that the student loan sale had no impact on our provision expense this quarter as the charge-off taken in conjunction with the sale was essentially equal to the allowance on the portfolio.

我們的淨沖銷率為 54 個基點，其中包括出售學生貸款組合帶來的 12 個基點影響。不包括學生貸款銷售，淨沖銷額為 42 個基點，環比上升 5 個基點。我們還注意到，學生貸款銷售對我們本季度的撥備費用沒有影響，因為與銷售相關的沖銷基本上等於投資組合的備抵。

During the quarter, we also increased our ALLL ratio 6 basis points to 1.43% due to greater economic uncertainty. Consistent with our commentary last quarter, we have tightened credit and reduced our risk appetite in select areas, though we maintain our through-the-cycle approach for high-quality, long-term clients.

由於經濟不確定性加大，本季度我們還將 ALLL 比率提高了 6 個基點至 1.43%。與我們上季度的評論一致，我們收緊了信貸，並降低了特定領域的風險偏好，但我們仍維持對高質量長期客戶的全週期方法。

Next, I'll provide more details on our CRE portfolio, which takes us to Slide 14. On June 30, CRE, including commercial construction, represented 8.9% of loans held for investment, while the Office segment comprised only 1.6%. We maintain a high-quality CRE portfolio through disciplined risk management and prudent client selection. We typically work with developers and sponsors we know well and have observed their performance through multiple cycles.

接下來，我將提供有關我們的 CRE 投資組合的更多詳細信息，請參見幻燈片 14。截至 6 月 30 日，包括商業建築在內的 CRE 佔投資貸款的 8.9%，而寫字樓業務僅佔 1.6%。我們通過嚴格的風險管理和審慎的客戶選擇來維持高質量的商業地產投資組合。我們通常與我們熟悉的開發商和讚助商合作，並通過多個週期觀察他們的表現。

Our larger exposures tend to be associated with sponsors that have strong institutional ownership, and we have actively managed less strategic exposures out of the portfolio since the close of the merger.

我們較大的風險敞口往往與擁有強大機構所有權的讚助商有關，並且自合併結束以來，我們一直積極管理投資組合中較少的戰略風險敞口。

Looking at Office, in particular, the chart at the lower right provides a breakdown of our Office portfolio by tenant and class. Our office exposure tends to be weighted towards multi-tenant Class A properties that are situated within our footprint, all factors that we believe will drive outperformance. In addition, we have a strong CRE team that is highly proactive in working with clients to get ahead of the problems.

尤其是辦公室，右下角的圖表按租戶和類別提供了我們的辦公室產品組合的詳細信息。我們的辦公樓投資往往偏重於位於我們足跡範圍內的多租戶 A 級物業，我們相信所有這些因素都將推動業績優異。此外，我們擁有一支強大的 CRE 團隊，他們非常積極主動地與客戶合作，以解決問題。

During the second quarter, we completed a thorough review of the majority of our CRE office exposure. We considered current conditions and client support in our risk rating approach. As a result, a handful of loans were moved to nonaccrual, though the preponderance of the clients and exposure are paying as agreed. We believe our actions are prudent in light of current market dynamics and demonstrate our commitment to proactive and early identification and resolution of credit risk.

在第二季度，我們完成了對大部分商業地產辦公室風險的徹底審查。我們在風險評級方法中考慮了當前狀況和客戶支持。結果，少數貸款轉為非應計貸款，儘管大部分客戶和風險敞口正在按約定付款。我們相信，鑑於當前的市場動態，我們的行動是審慎的，並體現了我們對主動、早期識別和解決信用風險的承諾。

While problem loans have increased in recent months, we believe overall issues will be manageable in light of our laddered maturity profile, conservative LTVs and reserves, which for office totaled 6.2% of loans held for investment.

儘管近幾個月來問題貸款有所增加，但我們認為，鑑於我們的階梯式期限結構、保守的貸款價值比和準備金（任職期間總計佔投資貸款的 6.2%），總體問題將是可控的。

Turning to capital on Slide 15. As you can see from the capital waterfall, Truist is well capitalized and has significant flexibility to respond to potential changes in the risk and regulatory environment. Beginning on the left, CET1 capital increased 50 basis points to 9.6% at June 30. This was driven by organic capital generation and the completion of the sale of the 20% stake in Truist Insurance Holdings. I would also point out that at 9.6%, we're well above our new regulatory minimum of 7.4%, which takes effect on October 1. We expect to achieve an approximate 10% CET1 ratio by year-end through a combination of organic capital generation and disciplined management of RWA growth. This view does contemplate the headwind from the pending FDIC assessment.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的資本。正如您從資本瀑布中看到的那樣，Truist 資本充足，並且具有顯著的靈活性來應對風險和監管環境的潛在變化。從左側開始，截至 6 月 30 日，CET1 資本增加了 50 個基點，達到 9.6%。這是由有機資本生成和完成出售 Truist Insurance Holdings 20% 股份推動的。我還想指出的是，我們的 CET1 比率為 9.6%，遠高於 10 月 1 日生效的新監管最低值 7.4%。我們預計，通過有機資本生成和對 RWA 增長的嚴格管理相結合，到年底，CET1 比率將達到約 10%。這種觀點確實考慮到了聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 待決評估帶來的不利影響。

On top of this, Truist has more than 200 basis points of additional flexibility given the residual 80% ownership stake in Truist Insurance Holdings. As we look beyond '23, we do expect regulatory and capital requirements become more stringent and potentially require us to deduct AOCI from our CET1 ratio. While the final form of any regulatory changes remains to be seen, Truist is well positioned to respond due to our strong organic capital generation and the likely phasing periods of any potential new requirement.

除此之外，鑑於 Truist Insurance Holdings 剩餘 80% 的所有權，Truist 擁有超過 200 個基點的額外靈活性。當我們展望 23 年後，我們確實預計監管和資本要求將變得更加嚴格，並可能要求我們從 CET1 比率中扣除 AOCI。雖然任何監管變化的最終形式仍有待觀察，但由於我們強大的有機資本生成能力以及任何潛在新要求可能的分階段性，Truist 已做好應對準備。

Specifically, and as shown on the right-hand side of the slide, based on estimated cash flows and assuming today's forward curve, we would expect Truist AOCI to decline by 36% by the end of 2026. Assuming our current rate of organic capital generation remains constant, Truist should generate sufficient capital to offset the estimated remaining impact of AOCI on CET1 over this time period while maintaining the strategic capital flexibility with Truist Insurance Holdings.

具體而言，如幻燈片右側所示，根據估計的現金流量並假設今天的遠期曲線，我們預計到 2026 年底，Truist AOCI 將下降 36%。假設我們當前的有機資本生成率保持不變，Truist 應該產生足夠的資本來抵消 AOCI 在這段時間內對 CET1 的估計剩餘影響，同時保持與 Truist Insurance Holdings 的戰略資本靈活性。

And now I will review our updated guidance on Slide 16. Looking into the third quarter of 2023, we expect revenues to be down 4% due to seasonally lower insurance revenue and slightly lower loan balances, which will lead to continued pressure on net interest income, albeit at a slower pace relative to the decline we experienced in the second quarter.

現在我將回顧幻燈片 16 上的更新指引。展望 2023 年第三季度，由於保險收入季節性下降和貸款餘額略有下降，我們預計收入將下降 4%，這將導致淨利息收入持續面臨壓力，儘管與第二季度相比下降速度較慢。

Adjusted expenses are anticipated to decline 0% to 1% as seasonally lower insurance commissions and our efforts to bend the expense curve will offset several seasonal headwinds like marketing and employee benefits that should change the tailwinds in the fourth quarter.

調整後的費用預計將下降 0% 至 1%，因為保險佣金的季節性下降以及我們彎曲費用曲線的努力將抵消營銷和員工福利等一些季節性不利因素，這些因素應該會改變第四季度的有利因素。

For the full year 2023, we now expect revenues to increase 1% to 2% compared to 2022. The decline from our previous outlook for 3% growth is primarily driven by lower net interest income due to higher deposit betas, slower loan growth and lower investment banking revenue.

對於 2023 年全年，我們目前預計收入將比 2022 年增長 1% 至 2%。我們之前預測的增長 3% 有所下降，主要是由於存款貝塔係數較高、貸款增長放緩和投資銀行收入下降導致淨利息收入下降。

Adjusted expenses are expected to increase 7%, which is at the upper end of our previously guided range due to continued investments in enterprise technology and other areas. This excludes the anticipated FDIC surcharge. This is a number that is higher than where we've been targeting, but as we've discussed, we are pursuing a number of actions to reduce costs. In terms of asset quality, our expectation is for the net charge-off ratio to be between 40 and 50 basis points, which includes the impact of the student loan sale. Finally, we expect an effective tax rate of 19% or 21% on a taxable equivalent basis.

由於對企業技術和其他領域的持續投資，調整後的費用預計將增長 7%，處於我們之前指導範圍的上限。這不包括預期的 FDIC 附加費。這個數字高於我們的目標，但正如我們所討論的，我們正在採取一系列行動來降低成本。就資產質量而言，我們預計淨沖銷率將在40至50個基點之間，其中包括學生貸款銷售的影響。最後，我們預計在應稅等值基礎上的有效稅率為 19% 或 21%。

Now Bill, I'll hand it back to you for some final remarks.

現在，比爾，我將把它交還給你，讓你做最後的評論。

Great. Thanks, Mike. So let's conclude on Slide 17. We're on the right path, and I'm highly optimistic about our ability to realize our significant post-integration potential as summarized in our investment thesis. Our goal financially is to provide strong growth and profitability and to do so with less volatility than our peers. Our strategic pivot from integrating to operating is well underway. And while the financial benefits of our pivot have been masked by the rapid increase in funding costs and related revenue pressure, we've made significant strategic progress over the past year and showing up in a number of operating metrics across our business.

偉大的。謝謝，邁克。因此，讓我們在幻燈片 17 上得出結論。我們走在正確的道路上，我對我們實現投資論文中總結的重大整合後潛力的能力非常樂觀。我們的財務目標是提供強勁的增長和盈利能力，並且比同行的波動性更小。我們從整合到運營的戰略支點正在順利進行。儘管我們的轉型所帶來的財務收益被融資成本和相關收入壓力的快速增長所掩蓋，但我們在過去一年中取得了重大戰略進展，並體現在我們業務的許多運營指標中。

In our Consumer Banking and Wealth segments, Retail and Small Business Banking net new checking production has been positive during 4 of the past 5 quarters, reflecting the success of Truist One and improved retention associated with our increasing client service metrics.

在我們的消費者銀行和財富部門，零售和小型企業銀行的淨新支票產量在過去 5 個季度中有 4 個季度呈正值，反映出 Truist One 的成功以及與我們不斷提高的客戶服務指標相關的保留率的提高。

Truist One also has many features that appeal the millennials and Gen Z represent 70% of the new client applications. Our Wealth Trust and Brokerage business continues to build momentum as net organic asset flows, which exclude the impact of market value changes have been positive 8 of the last 9 quarters. We've also steadily improved client satisfaction through the distinctive service provided by our branches and care agents as well as improvements to our digital processes and procedures that originated in our client [journey rooms]. As a result, our client satisfaction scores were stable to improving across most of our channels during the second quarter, but have been consistently rising over the past year since the integration.

Truist One 還擁有許多吸引千禧一代的功能，而 Z 世代代表了新客戶端應用程序的 70%。我們的財富信託和經紀業務繼續保持強勁勢頭，淨有機資產流動（排除市場價值變化的影響）在過去 9 個季度中有 8 個季度為正值。我們還通過分支機構和護理代理提供的獨特服務以及源自客戶[旅程室]的數字流程和程序的改進，穩步提高了客戶滿意度。因此，我們的大多數渠道的客戶滿意度得分在第二季度穩定提高，但自整合以來在過去一年中一直在持續上升。

In Corporate and Commercial, we continue to focus on left lead loan transactions and the synergies between our CIB and CCB businesses. During the first half of the year, 25% of the left lead transactions closed by Truist were with our CCB clients. We're also making inroads with new CCB clients as 65% of the CCB left leads I just mentioned were new relationships.

在企業和商業領域，我們繼續關注左主導貸款交易以及 CIB 和 CCB 業務之間的協同效應。今年上半年，Truist 完成的左手交易中有 25% 是與我們的建行客戶進行的。我們還在與新的 CCB 客戶取得進展，因為我剛才提到的 CCB 留下的線索中有 65% 是新關係。

In equity capital markets, transaction economics have improved approximately 300 basis points on average since the merger. And in wholesale payments, our pipeline is the highest it's been since the merger. Each of these data points reflect our increasing strategic relevance with our clients.

自合併以來，股權資本市場的交易經濟性平均提高了約 300 個基點。在批發支付方面，我們的渠道是自合併以來最高的。這些數據點中的每一個都反映了我們與客戶日益增強的戰略相關性。

In addition, our IRM program, integrated relationship management is off to a great start this year as we've already delivered nearly 50% more IRM solutions year-to-date than during the same period a year ago. Our strong progress demonstrates what is possible post-integration when our teammates can focus their undivided attention on caring for their clients and deepening those relationships. However, just as we're shifting our focus from integrate to operate, the economic landscape shifted from favorable to more challenging. As a result, we too must shift and make tough decisions to fit the realities of today's economic environment and tomorrow's regulatory requirements.

此外，我們的 IRM 計劃（集成關係管理）今年取得了良好的開端，因為我們今年迄今為止交付的 IRM 解決方案比去年同期增加了近 50%。我們的強勁進步表明，當我們的團隊成員能夠全神貫注地照顧客戶並加深這些關係時，整合後的可能性是巨大的。然而，正當我們將重點從整合轉向運營時，經濟形勢從有利轉向更具挑戰性。因此，我們也必須做出轉變並做出艱難的決定，以適應當今經濟環境的現實和未來的監管要求。

This means being more disciplined about where we choose to compete and deploy our capital, whether businesses, clients or products and looking deeper and more -- a more structural cost opportunities that exist at Truist. These opportunities exist, but have not the primary focus during the integration period where the focus was on creating the best transition possible for clients and teammates.

這意味著我們要更加嚴格地選擇在哪裡競爭和部署我們的資本，無論是業務、客戶還是產品，並更深入、更廣泛地審視 Truist 存在的更具結構性的成本機會。這些機會是存在的，但並不是整合期間的主要焦點，整合期間的重點是為客戶和團隊成員創造最佳的過渡。

Mike highlighted many of the specifics earlier while the details are critically important, what will ultimately matter to stakeholders as our absolute expense base and growth, and our teams are aligned internally on changing that trajectory. I'm really truly optimistic about the future of Truist as our unwavering foundation of purpose, our talented teammates, leadership in growth markets and diverse business model will continue to drive our momentum and fulfill our potential.

邁克早些時候強調了許多具體細節，而細節至關重要，最終對利益相關者來說最重要的是我們的絕對費用基礎和增長，並且我們的團隊在改變這一軌跡方面保持了內部一致。我對 Truist 的未來感到非常樂觀，因為我們堅定不移的目標基礎、我們才華橫溢的隊友、增長市場的領導力和多元化的業務模式將繼續推動我們的發展勢頭並發揮我們的潛力。

So Brad, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

布拉德，讓我把它轉回給你進行問答。

Thank you, Bill. Karen , at this time, will you please explain how our listeners can participate in the Q&A session? (Operator Instructions).

謝謝你，比爾。 Karen，這個時候請您解釋一下我們的聽眾如何參與問答環節？ （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 提出的第一個問題。

Good morning, everyone. So I just wanted to follow up. Of course, it makes sense that the funding costs and slower loan growth is part of the change in the revenue outlook. Just wondering as you look forward and you think about that deposit mix and deposit cost trajectory as far as funding costs looking past the second quarter, how do you see that affecting the NII trajectory within that new revenue guide for third and fourth?

大家，早安。所以我只是想跟進一下。當然，融資成本和貸款增長放緩是收入前景變化的一部分，這是有道理的。只是想知道，當您展望未來並考慮存款組合和存款成本軌跡以及第二季度之後的融資成本時，您如何看待這對第三和第四季度新收入指南中的 NII 軌蹟的影響？

Ken, it's Mike. I'd say as we think about the rest of the year, the same factors that have been driving, I'd say, just average balance, QT, primarily in the second quarter, we had a little bit more of an impact from tax payments will continue. The mixing has been pretty consistent, too, from a noninterest-bearing demand perspective into higher cost alternatives. We saw a little bit of an acceleration in the first quarter, as you'll recall, but this quarter, that stabilized a bit. We were down about 5.5% on those balances and remix from, I guess, 32% to 31%. We would expect that trend to continue as well.

肯，是邁克。我想說，當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時，主要是在第二季度，推動平均餘額 QT 的因素相同，我們將繼續受到納稅的影響。從無息需求的角度來看，這種混合也相當一致。您可能還記得，我們​​在第一季度看到了一些加速，但在本季度，情況有所穩定。我們在這些平衡和混音方面下降了約 5.5%，我猜從 32% 下降到 31%。我們預計這種趨勢也將持續下去。

I think really the factor as we think about NII trajectory for the third and the fourth quarter has much more to do with sort of the Fed policy track, right? We're -- we had about, call it, close to 50 basis points average increase in the Fed funds rate in the second quarter, which really did have an impact on our betas and our funding costs. We would expect that to be about half that in the third quarter and further moderating from there.

我認為，當我們考慮第三季度和第四季度的 NII 軌跡時，這個因素實際上與美聯儲的政策軌蹟有更多關係，對嗎？第二季度聯邦基金利率平均上漲近 50 個基點，這確實對我們的貝塔值和融資成本產生了影響。我們預計第三季度這一數字將約為一半，並在此後進一步放緩。

And just on the follow-up, what do you think that means for kind of the view of where you think terminal interest-bearing beta might land?

就後續而言，您認為這對於您認為終期計息貝塔可能落地的觀點意味著什麼？

It's tough. We're at 44% today. That's higher than where we expected to be. I think we, as recently as a month or so ago, expressed an expectation that maybe mid-to high 40s would be the case, I think certainly [piercing 50%], but really hard to pick a number at this point, Ken, to be honest with you. A lot of it, I think, has to do with how long we're higher for longer.

它太硬。今天我們的進度是 44%。這比我們預期的要高。我認為，就在大約一個月前，我們表達了一種預期，可能是 40 多歲左右，我想當然是[刺穿 50%]，但老實說，現在很難選擇一個數字，Ken。我認為，很大程度上與我們保持較高水平的時間更長有關。

We'll take our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala) 提出的下一個問題。

Good morning. I guess maybe the first question, Mike, just following up on what your response to Ken around -- just the change in deposit beta expectations even relative to last month, are they -- like when we think about what you said on deposit beta outlook, are there any real signs that are suggesting that deposit trends are, in fact, slowing down and the likelihood of the deposit beta update you provided today is more likely to play out versus having to change this again next month? I'm just wondering, are you seeing any tangible signs on the ground that suggest things are getting better?

早上好。我想也許第一個問題，邁克，只是跟進你對肯的回應——只是存款貝塔預期的變化，甚至相對於上個月來說，是嗎——就像當我們思考你所說的存款貝塔前景時，是否有任何真正的跡象表明存款趨勢實際上正在放緩，並且你今天提供的存款貝塔更新更有可能發揮作用，而不是下個月再次改變這一點？我只是想知道，您是否看到任何明顯跡象表明情況正在好轉？

It's -- we look at it on a weekly, monthly basis, Ebrahim. And so I think, yes, I mean, I think history would say that as we approach and reach this terminal policy rate, we should start to see some moderation in the beta creep. We're starting to see that a little bit, but a month or a few weeks, a trend does not make, and so just being very cautious on the outlook there. I mean at [5.25%], going to [5.50%], the degree of rate awareness across our client set is very, very high across the industry. It's very, very high. And so look, I -- and I think that's probably as much as anything driven the miss on betas for the sector so far.

易卜拉欣，我們每週、每月都會查看它。所以我認為，是的，我的意思是，我認為歷史會說，當我們接近並達到這個終端政策利率時，我們應該開始看到貝塔蠕變有所放緩。我們開始看到一點點，但一個月或幾週後，趨勢不會形成，因此對前景非常謹慎。我的意思是，從 [5.25%] 到 [5.50%]，我們客戶群的利率認知度在整個行業中都非常非常高。這是非常非常高的。所以，我認為，這可能是迄今為止導致該行業貝塔測試失敗的原因。

Got it. And I guess just a separate question. You talked a lot, both you and Bill throughout the call around wanting to bend the cost curve and the expense focus. I know you're not giving '24 guidance today, but as we think about the opportunity there, I'm just wondering if you can put some framework around what we should expect around what this entails with regards to just quantifying it.

知道了。我想這只是一個單獨的問題。您和比爾在整個通話過程中說了很多話，都希望改變成本曲線和費用焦點。我知道您今天不會提供 24 小時的指導，但當我們思考那裡的機會時，我只是想知道您是否可以圍繞我們應該期望的內容建立一些框架，圍繞量化它所需要的內容。

Yes. I'll take that without again trying to sort of provide specific guidance because we're -- have a lot of things that we're working on. If you think about sort of the buildup, so the buildup was related to things that are investing to build a large financial institution, and then we have some unique onetime things to us that are -- things like pension accounting and then we had acquisitions in part of that.

是的。我會接受這一點，而不會再次嘗試提供具體指導，因為我們正在處理很多事情。如果你考慮某種積累，那麼這種積累與投資建立大型金融機構的事情有關，然後我們有一些獨特的一次性事情，比如養老金會計，然後我們進行了部分收購。

So to say a couple of things. I mean, we're clearly at an inflection point in the growth rate, so the growth rate is going to change materially. And you can sort of see that by our guidance for the year relative to where we are right now, so that will give you an impression of where we think the third and fourth quarter will be from a growth perspective. I think similarly sort of on an absolute basis for the balance of this year, we'd expect to see some of that absolute level of expenses coming down.

所以說幾件事。我的意思是，我們顯然正處於增長率的拐點，因此增長率將發生重大變化。您可以通過我們對今年的指導相對於目前的情況看到這一點，這樣您就可以從增長的角度了解我們認為第三季度和第四季度的情況。我認為，在今年剩餘時間的絕對基礎上，我們預計支出的絕對水平會有所下降。

But the real change comes in the structural opportunities that Mike talked about and the things that we're working on, so we can bend the curve in lots of ways that are incremental. But I think the big opportunity for us is sort of the fundamental components in terms of how our company is structured, how it runs, what the chassis looks like, what are the businesses that we're in, and that's the work that we're doing. That's the big work of post integration to running the company in a way that reflects the current environment. So what I would say, maybe I'll use the word appreciably, so expenses will be down appreciably. And as we get into this latter part of this year, we'll provide a lot more guidance and thought about 2024.

但真正的變化來自邁克談到的結構性機會以及我們正在做的事情，因此我們可以通過多種漸進的方式來扭轉曲線。但我認為對我們來說，巨大的機會是一些基本組成部分，包括我們公司的結構、運營方式、底盤是什麼樣子、我們從事的業務是什麼，這就是我們正在做的工作。這是整合後的一項艱鉅工作，旨在以反映當前環境的方式運營公司。所以我想說的是，也許我會明顯地使用這個詞，這樣費用就會明顯下降。當我們進入今年下半年時，我們將提供更多關於 2024 年的指導和思考。

For our next question will turn to Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將由瑞銀 (UBS) 的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian) 回答。

And I apologize in advance as it feels like everyone's asking the same question, but I think it's important for your investors to have clarity. Mike, just on the net interest income trajectory, I apologize that we're asking you to spoon-feed it to us. I'm sure everybody could model it later, but investors are really thinking about what the exit rate for the fourth quarter will be and potentially overlay your net interest income sensitivity that you disclosed in your Q, which at down 100, just down 70 basis points would imply pretty good stability from fourth quarter levels.

我提前道歉，因為感覺每個人都在問同樣的問題，但我認為對投資者來說澄清很重要。邁克，就淨利息收入軌跡而言，我很抱歉我們要求您將其灌輸給我們。我相信每個人都可以稍後對其進行建模，但投資者確實在考慮第四季度的退出率是多少，並且可能會覆蓋您在 Q 中披露的淨利息收入敏感性，如果下降 100 個基點，僅下降 70 個基點，則意味著與第四季度水平相比相當穩定。

So I guess I'm wondering from the [3, 6, 7, 9], what is the range of NII outcomes that you expect for the fourth quarter? And do you agree with that notion that if the Fed does cut 100 basis points, which a lot of investors are putting in their models, there is going to be relative stability in terms of your net interest income power next year?

所以我想我想知道 [3,6,7,9]，您對第四季度 NII 結果的預期範圍是多少？您是否同意這樣的觀點：如果美聯儲確實降息 100 個基點（許多投​​資者將其納入他們的模型中），那麼明年您的淨利息收入能力將相對穩定？

Yes. No, Erika, I don't mind at all the follow-up question here. So a couple of things. Yes, I mean, look, we are -- according to our NII sensitivity disclosure, relatively neutral. And I'd say, based on where we are in the cycle and how, in particular, betas are performing, we're probably even a little bit more liability sensitive to that -- than that, and you see that in our results.

是的。不，埃里卡，我根本不介意這裡的後續問題。有幾件事。是的，我的意思是，根據我們的國家信息基礎設施敏感性披露，我們是相對中立的。我想說，根據我們在周期中的位置，特別是貝塔的表現，我們可能對此更加敏感——比這更敏感，你可以在我們的結果中看到這一點。

We're not currently contemplating a cut this year when we talked about our expectations. In the middle of June, we were thinking about a cut as early as this year. We've updated our rate view to a up ['25] at the next meeting and then holding until probably [mid-'24], so that probably is what's influencing our revenue guide for the rest of this year and especially the NII component. But yes, I mean, just to get to your question, if we saw a down 100, that would absolutely be a stabilizing force and would be a nice tailwind for our NII based on how we're positioned.

當我們談論我們的期望時，我們目前並沒有考慮今年的削減。 6月中旬，我們就在考慮最早今年的削減。我們已在下次會議上將利率觀點更新為上調 ['25]，然後維持到可能 ['24] 年中，因此這可能會影響我們今年剩餘時間的收入指南，尤其是 NII 部分。但是，是的，我的意思是，只是為了回答你的問題，如果我們看到下降 100，那絕對會成為一股穩定力量，並且根據我們的定位，對我們的 NII 來說將是一個很好的推動力。

And within your guide -- go ahead, Bill.

在你的指南中——繼續吧，比爾。

Let me just add a couple of things because we're really talking about sort of betas and NII, and we also need to shift to talk about client and client activity, which is also an important part of this. So the tailwind that we're creating about net deposit growth, expansion, IRM, primacy with relationships.

讓我補充幾件事，因為我們實際上討論的是 beta 和 NII，而且我們還需要轉向討論客戶和客戶活動，這也是其中的重要組成部分。因此，我們正在創造關於淨存款增長、擴張、IRM、關係至上的順風。

And then on the pricing side, I mean, we're starting to see some of that pricing flexibility, particularly on the commercial side. So spread over SOFR, probably 20-some plus basis points quarter-to-quarter. So the ability to be more relevant to our clients, reposition our portfolio to reflect that, be in higher returning quite frankly, taking some market share where others are backing off, we're leaning into some opportunities that have greater return for us. So in addition to all the betas and the other components, there's just a lot of really good underlying client activity that's tailwind.

然後在定價方面，我的意思是，我們開始看到一些定價靈活性，特別是在商業方面。因此，與 SOFR 的利差，每個季度可能會增加 20 個以上基點。因此，能夠與我們的客戶更加相關，重新定位我們的投資組合以反映這一點，坦率地說，獲得更高的回報，在其他人退縮的情況下佔據一些市場份額，我們正在傾向於一些為我們帶來更大回報的機會。因此，除了所有測試版和其他組件之外，還有很多非常好的潛在客戶活動是順風車。

Got it. And just a follow-up question, and then I'll step aside. Mike, I guess, let me ask it a different way, within the down or up 1% to 2% in terms of adjusted revenue, what is the NII outlook there -- embedded there?

知道了。只是一個後續問題，然後我就離開。邁克，我想，讓我換個方式問一下，在調整後的收入下降或上升 1% 到 2% 的範圍內，那裡的 NII 前景是什麼？

Yes, no problem. So our expectation is that in the third quarter with a single rate hike, our -- will continue on a downward trajectory, but at a much more moderate pace, call it, half of what we saw in the second quarter, and I think you would expect the pressure to decline even further in the fourth quarter. Talking about NII. Yes, you got it.

是沒有問題。因此，我們的預期是，在第三季度加息一次後，我們的利率將繼續下行，但速度要溫和得多，相當於第二季度的一半，我認為你會預計第四季度的壓力會進一步下降。談論NII。是的，你明白了。

Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Just one quick follow-on to this discussion regarding the noninterest-bearing component. I know you mentioned earlier that you expect the noninterest bearing to remix to stabilize here. And I'm just wondering, in your NII outlook, where are you expecting noninterest-bearing to trend? And where do you feel that, that will stabilize?

這只是關於無息部分的討論的一個快速後續。我知道您之前提到過，您預計非利息將重新混合以穩定下來。我只是想知道，在您的國家信息基礎設施展望中，您預計無息趨勢將如何？你覺得哪裡會穩定下來？

It's been remixing at about 1% a quarter for us. That was about $7 billion in average balance and 5.5% in the quarter. I would expect that trend to continue at that rate. We spent a lot of time last quarter talking about where that might ultimately land. I think there's a chance that, that rate of 1% or whatever, 5% to 6% a quarter does begin to moderate some here. Bill and I both talked about sort of maybe some mid-20s, terminal mix of DDA, but even that, I think, is, in many respects, an estimate and trying to rely on pre-pandemic and even back to the pre-GFC proxy. So, if that helps or not, but we are assuming that DDA will continue to decline in the third and the fourth quarter.

我們每季度都會以大約 1% 的速度重新混音。平均餘額約為 70 億美元，本季度餘額為 5.5%。我預計這種趨勢將以這種速度持續下去。上個季度我們花了很多時間討論最終可能實現的目標。我認為，每季度 1% 或 5% 到 6% 的利率確實有可能開始有所緩和。比爾和我都談到了可能是 20 多歲左右的 DDA 的最終組合，但我認為，即使這樣，在很多方面也是一種估計，並試圖依賴於大流行前，甚至回到全球金融危機前的代理。因此，無論這是否有幫助，但我們假設 DDA 將在第三和第四季度繼續下降。

Again, the second quarter is a little tougher because of the tax payments and the likes.

同樣，由於納稅等原因，第二季度的情況有些困難。

Right. Got it. Okay. And then just shifting the conversation a little bit towards capital. I see your Slide 15 on the significant capital momentum and flexibility that you've got. Maybe if you could just frame for us how you're thinking about what's the right level for you as we're thinking through what regulation could come through here next week, supposedly we're going to have some new proposals come out. And then give us a sense as to buy back capacity and where you're thinking about that at this stage?

正確的。知道了。好的。然後把話題稍微轉向資本。我看到您的幻燈片 15 展示了您所擁有的巨大資本動力和靈活性。也許，如果您能為我們描述一下，當我們考慮下周可能通過的法規時，您如何考慮什麼是適合您的水平，據說我們將會提出一些新的提案。然後讓我們了解一下回購產能的情況，以及您現階段在哪裡考慮這個問題？

Yes, Betsy, it's Bill. So I think, position right now as we continue to build, and so the targets are developing. More information is coming. We'll know more over the next 90 days in terms of different proposals and impact on us. And really what this slide was meant to do rather than show sort of an absolute level or a target was really to show the flexibility in the organic creation of capital that we have. So we start from a good position of 9.6% will be organically at 10% end of this year without sort of doing anything dramatic related to risk-weighted assets, so staying on the process that we're on.

是的，貝特西，是比爾。所以我認為，在我們繼續建設的過程中，現在就定位，因此目標正在製定。更多信息即將推出。在接下來的 90 天內，我們將更多地了解不同的提案及其對我們的影響。事實上，這張幻燈片的目的並不是展示絕對水平或目標，而是展示我們擁有的資本有機創造的靈活性。因此，我們從 9.6％ 的良好位置開始，到今年年底將有機地達到 10％，而無需採取任何與風險加權資產相關的重大措施，因此請繼續我們正在進行的流程。

And then we just have a lot of flexibility that the AOCI sort of runs off, and then we have -- we just have other flexibility, so we'll know more as it develops. But I think we're in the left lane of capital accretion, and we'll stay in that mode until we're not. And that same thing applies to any buybacks or whatnot. We sort of have to understand where the stopping point is before we make any comment about buybacks. And today, that would be short term, not on the table as we're building capital.

然後我們就擁有了 AOCI 所擁有的很多靈活性，然後我們擁有了其他靈活性，所以隨著它的發展，我們會了解更多。但我認為我們正處於資本增值的左車道，並且我們將保持這種模式，直到情況出現為止。同樣的事情也適用於任何回購或其他類似的事情。在我們對回購發表任何評論之前，我們必須了解停止點在哪裡。今天，這將是短期的，在我們建立資本時不會被討論。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們將回答富國銀行證券公司邁克·梅奧的下一個問題。

I want to recognize that accelerated capital pass CET1 10% by year-end. So certainly, progress with capital. But otherwise, Bill, I need help in understanding how you can say you're on the right path. One, you had a merger, an [in-market merger], an [end-market merger] predicated on cost synergies, and here we are over 3 years later, and your efficiency ratio in the second quarter is 63% worse than peer.

我想承認，加速資本在年底前通過了 CET1 10%。所以當然，進步需要資本。但除此之外，比爾，我需要幫助來理解如何才能說自己走在正確的道路上。第一，你們進行了一次合併，一次[市場內合併]，一次[終端市場合併]，以成本協同效應為基礎，而現在已經是三年多後的事了，你們第二季度的效率比同行低了63%。

Second, your new guide is for '23 operating leverage -- negative operating leverage of 500 to 600 basis points. And to [boot], the revenue guide was lowered by 500 basis points and your expense guide went to the high end of your prior range, your personnel expenses are up 3% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year.

其次，你們的新指南適用於 23 年運營槓桿——負運營槓桿為 500 至 600 個基點。 [啟動]，收入指南降低了 500 個基點，您的支出指南達到了之前範圍的高端，您的人員費用環比增長 3%，同比增長 7%。

And then three, you talk about bending the cost curve, but over the past 3 years, you've mentioned when the hood was open, you said let's invest more, then it was investing more for growth. Now I hear you say you're investing more in enterprise tech. So from the -- the merger is predicated on cost synergies. The guide is for big negative operating leverage, you're still spending more -- so I understand the employees should be happy. They're being paid more. The customers are happy. You have strong relationships. The communities are happy, you're immersed in them. But the shareholders, I think, I can safely say are not happy, not happy about the expense growth, and they're not happy about the negative operating leverage. And it just seems like -- I love you personally, but I just wonder if you've just been a little too soft and not taking the tougher actions like some of your peers have. So correct my logic or thinking or my observations, if you would.

第三，你談到彎曲成本曲線，但在過去的三年裡，你提到當引擎蓋打開時，你說讓我們投資更多，然後為增長投資更多。現在我聽到你說你正在加大對企業技術的投資。因此，合併是基於成本協同效應。該指南針對的是巨大的負運營槓桿，你仍然花費更多 - 所以我理解員工應該感到高興。他們的工資更高了。顧客很高興。你們有牢固的關係。社區很快樂，你沉浸在其中。但我想，我可以有把握地說，股東們不滿意，對費用增長不滿意，對負經營槓桿也不滿意。看起來——我個人愛你，但我只是想知道你是否有點太軟弱，沒有像你的一些同齡人那樣採取更強硬的行動。所以如果你願意的話，請糾正我的邏輯、思維或我的觀察。

Thanks, Mike, and appreciate the love, but right back at you. So I think -- so a couple of things. One is maybe I challenge a little bit the merger was predicated on cost saves alone. Remember the merger was predicated on opportunity as well, an opportunity in our markets, and we want to make sure that we're well positioned to take advantage of those. So when I talk about sort of being on track, I don't want you to think that, that satisfaction about where we are from an expense side.

謝謝，邁克，並感謝你的愛，但還是回到你身上。所以我認為——有幾件事。其中之一是，我可能對合併僅以節省成本為基礎提出了質疑。請記住，合併也是基於機會，是我們市場中的機會，我們希望確保我們處於有利地位，可以利用這些機會。因此，當我談到步入正軌時，我不希望您認為我們對支出方面的現狀感到滿意。

Building the infrastructure for a large company in this environment was more expensive than we anticipated, so there's just no doubt about that.

在這種環境下為一家大公司構建基礎設施比我們預期的要貴，所以這是毫無疑問的。

And -- but to that point, I think we're at a really good inflection point. And that inflection point is a pivot. The intensity, I can assure you hear around expenses, but not just expenses, but just redesigning the chassis. I mean, there are lots of easy things you can do. You can do hiring freezes and those type of things, and we're underway on all that, and you'll start to see some of that in the next couple of quarters, but our commitment is to really underchange the fundamental structure and the business model that results of this.

但就這一點而言，我認為我們正處於一個非常好的拐點。這個拐點就是一個樞軸。我可以向您保證，強度是圍繞費用進行的，但不僅僅是費用，而是重新設計底盤。我的意思是，您可以做很多簡單的事情。你可以凍結招聘和類似的事情，我們正在處理所有這些事情，你將在接下來的幾個季度中開始看到其中的一些，但我們的承諾是真正改變基本結構和由此產生的商業模式。

So there are certain businesses. We talked about student loan would be an example that we're -- we've been supporting from an expense standpoint that just doesn't fit into our strategy and doesn't make sense, so we'll evaluate other parts of our business and other parts of our support structure that are part of that. You could argue we should have been doing that faster. I think that's a legitimate push, and I accept that, but I don't want you to think that it's not happening. And that focus is intense, but it is about trying to create more permanent change than structural -- I mean let's make the next quarter lower.

所以有一定的業務。我們談到學生貸款就是一個例子，我們一直從費用的角度提供支持，但這不符合我們的戰略，也沒有意義，因此我們將評估我們業務的其他部分以及屬於其中一部分的支持結構的其他部分。你可能會說我們應該做得更快。我認為這是一個合理的推動，我接受這一點，但我不希望你認為這沒有發生。這種關注是強烈的，但它是為了嘗試創造比結構性變化更持久的變化——我的意思是讓我們把下一個季度的價格降低。

Let's really change the fundamental structure of the company from an expense standpoint. You've seen me do it before, and you know we can do it again. So my confidence comes from the fact that we've got a team that's committed to this, and the plans that I see and the focus that we have. This is an inflection point from that standpoint in this quarter.

讓我們從費用的角度真正改變公司的基本結構。你以前見過我這樣做過，你知道我們可以再做一次。因此，我的信心來自於我們擁有一支致力於此的團隊，以及我所看到的計劃和我們的重點。從這個角度來看，這是本季度的一個拐點。

So, you mentioned you'll come back with some plan for 12 to 18 months. And I know -- look, I know you wanted to have positive operating leverage in the environment worked against you partly and as you acknowledge there are some other things internally. But it looks like it's going be tough to get positive operating leverage in 2024. Is that something you're going to shoot for? And when do we hear about these new expense plans over the next 12 to 18 months? You gave us a laundry list earlier and what sort of magnitude might that be?

所以，你提到你會帶著一些 12 到 18 個月的計劃回來。我知道——聽著，我知道你希望在部分不利於你的環境中擁有積極的運營槓桿，而且你也承認內部還有其他一些事情。但看起來 2024 年要獲得積極的運營槓桿會很困難。這是您想要追求的目標嗎？我們什麼時候可以得知未來 12 到 18 個月的這些新支出計劃？您之前給了我們一份詳細清單，其規模有多大？

Yes. We'll start talking about that in the next couple of quarters, Mike, and how they fit into the overall structure. As I've said to you before, I mean we have -- every business unit has a positive operating leverage plan. I mean that's what we've asked them to do is to create plans that are unique to their businesses, but what we need to do in addition is that sort of the enterprise positive operating leverage focus.

是的。邁克，我們將在接下來的幾個季度開始討論這一點，以及它們如何融入整體結構。正如我之前對你們說過的，我的意思是我們每個業務部門都有積極的運營槓桿計劃。我的意思是，我們要求他們做的是製定適合其業務的計劃，但我們還需要做的是關注企業積極的運營槓桿。

2024, we'll just have to see how it plays out. I mean there's a lot of economic factors that will determine that. So I'd say, not throwing in the towel, so to speak, but we just have to see where some of the economics layout as it relates to that. So if we're in a different rate environment, we're in a different investment banking environment, we're in a different -- then I'll have a different view on that. But as we sit here today, that's -- it's a tough climb, but what we want to do is build that capacity for the long term.

2024 年，我們只能看看結果如何。我的意思是有很多經濟因素可以決定這一點。所以我想說，不是認輸，可以這麼說，但我們只需要看看與此相關的一些經濟佈局。因此，如果我們處於不同的利率環境，我們處於不同的投資銀行環境，我們處於不同的環境，那麼我對此會有不同的看法。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，這是一次艱難的攀登，但我們想要做的是建立長期的能力。

And then last short follow-up. I asked this with everybody, the NII guide is much lower for you and for others. Do you think you've captured it all here? I mean do you lead the year at that kind of fourth quarter level, in that say? Or do you see more downside after that?

然後是最後一個簡短的跟進。我問過每個人，NII 指南對於你和其他人來說要低得多。您認為您已經捕獲了這一切嗎？我的意思是，您在第四季度的水平上領先於今年嗎？或者在那之後你看到更多的缺點嗎？

As far as the year is concerned, look, we've flipped to this higher for longer. The new guide reflects how betas are performing, so I think we feel like we've got it for the year. As far as trajectory and trough and '24, it's just -- I think it really is going to be rate path and policy dependent, so long as we're at these rates and for longer betas are going to keep creeping.

就今年而言，看，我們已經轉向更高的水平更長了。新指南反映了測試版的表現，所以我認為我們感覺今年已經有了它。就軌跡、谷底和 24 年而言，我認為這確實取決於利率路徑和政策，只要我們保持在這些利率水平，並且在更長的時間內，貝塔值就會繼續攀升。

Now the good news is we are seeing -- and Bill mentioned there's some improvement on things like credit spreads and repricing assets, et cetera. But I think so long as we stay at whatever 5.25%, 5.5%, there's risk if there's a second hike for sure, Mike, to our outlook. But no, I think we've got Q3 and Q4 pretty well pegged.

現在我們看到的好消息是——比爾提到信用利差和資產重新定價等方面有所改善。但我認為，只要我們保持在 5.25%、5.5% 的水平，邁克，我們的前景肯定會出現第二次上調的風險。但不，我認為我們第三季度和第四季度已經很好地掛鉤了。

Our next question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納。

I wanted to ask a little bit about credit. Could you talk a little bit about the asset quality trends you saw this quarter? What drove the increase in nonperformers, particularly around C&I and CRE?

我想問一些關於信用的問題。您能否談談您在本季度看到的資產質量趨勢？是什麼推動了不良企業的增加，特別是在工商業和商業地產方面？

I'll turn it over to Clarke, but just -- there's not a trend. So a lot of idiosyncratic things, but let me turn it over to Clarke to give a little more detail.

我會把它交給克拉克，但是——沒有趨勢。有很多特殊的事情，但讓我把它交給克拉克來提供更多細節。

Yes. Thanks, Bill, and thanks, John. So I would just say we had a number of moving pieces this quarter from a credit perspective and a lot of that was an intentionality around actively managing the portfolio. So the takeaways I would give you are: first, we had really solid consumer performance overall with lower NPLs and losses versus our forecast, so the consumer is holding up really well. So where we did see some of the impact, to your point, is in the C&I and CRE books.

是的。謝謝，比爾，謝謝，約翰。因此，我只想說，從信貸角度來看，本季度我們有許多變化，其中很多是圍繞積極管理投資組合的意圖。因此，我想給大家的結論是：首先，我們的總體消費者表現非常穩健，不良貸款和損失低於我們的預測，因此消費者的表現非常好。因此，就您而言，我們確實在 C&I 和 CRE 書籍中看到了一些影響。

From a C&I standpoint, we did see some uptick in NPLs and losses, but what I'd tell you is it's more episodic. There's no particular trend or segment issue, as Bill said, and we're coming off really low historical numbers, and so even where we are today would be lower than our long-term numbers. But as far as the NPL increase, most of that was driven by an intentional focus on CRE office. So what we did is we did an intense loan-by-loan review of our -- almost our entire book.

從商業和工業的角度來看，我們確實看到不良貸款和損失有所上升，但我要告訴你的是，這種情況更具偶發性。正如比爾所說，沒有特定的趨勢或細分市場問題，而且我們的歷史數字非常低，因此即使我們今天所處的位置也將低於我們的長期數字。但就不良貸款的增加而言，大部分是由於有意關注商業地產辦公樓所致。因此，我們所做的是對我們的幾乎整本書進行了嚴格的逐筆審查。

So I would just give you some color on Q1 and our community bank, we looked at every -- we looked at office loans greater than $2 million and in Q2, we looked at everything over $25 million, so we've done a loan-by-loan review with the vast majority of all of our CRE office. That included updated risk assessments and view evaluation. So we work really, really hard to make sure we're not kicking the can down the road and we understand where we are. So as a result of that, we put a few loans on nonaccrual.

所以我只想給大家介紹一下第一季度和我們的社區銀行，我們查看了每一項——我們查看了超過 200 萬美元的辦公室貸款，在第二季度，我們查看了超過 2500 萬美元的所有貸款，所以我們對絕大多數 CRE 辦公室進行了逐筆貸款審查。其中包括更新的風險評估和視圖評估。因此，我們非常非常努力地工作，以確保我們不會把罐子扔到路上，並且我們了解我們所處的位置。因此，我們將一些貸款設為非應計貸款。

I would tell you that the predominance of those loans are actually current -- they're swapped to maturity from a rate standpoint, and they've got good economic risk. But we're trying to stay focused on their ability to exit at maturity, and so we're looking and making sure we fully understand that, so that drove the increase in NPLs. And then we did recognize that with 6 bp increase in our allowance. And so our office allocation is up (inaudible) overall, so we feel really good about that.

我想告訴你，這些貸款的主導地位實際上是流動的——從利率的角度來看，它們是到期的，而且它們具有良好的經濟風險。但我們正努力關注他們在到期時退出的能力，因此我們正在尋找並確保我們完全理解這一點，從而推動不良貸款的增加。然後我們確實意識到了這一點，我們的津貼增加了 6 個基點。因此，我們的辦公室分配總體上增加了（聽不清），所以我們對此感覺非常好。

So again, I would say the takeaway is -- worked really hard to make sure we have good visibility in the portfolio. And the good news is our overall guidance for losses really didn't change. We included our student loan impact for Q2, but we maintain otherwise, our loss guidance for the year.

再說一次，我想說的要點是——非常努力地確保我們在投資組合中擁有良好的可見性。好消息是我們對損失的總體指導確實沒有改變。我們納入了第二季度的學生貸款影響，但我們維持了今年的損失指引。

Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up, Clarke. What should we think about in terms of maybe the charge-off trajectory in the back half of the year that's embedded in the guidance relative to the [42,] I guess, jumping off point here.

知道了。也許只是作為後續行動，克拉克。我們應該考慮一下下半年的沖銷軌跡，該軌跡包含在相對於[42]的指導中，我想，這裡是起點。

Yes. Again, we're very confident we'll be within the range of 40 bps to 50 bps for the entire year. And I would just remind you all that the second half of the year is always seasonally high in our Consumer businesses, particularly in our subprime auto, and so that's why you see the range stay in the 40 bps to 50 bps range, so it will be higher than Q2, but within the guidance we've given you.

是的。同樣，我們非常有信心全年的增速將保持在 40 基點至 50 基點的範圍內。我想提醒大家，下半年我們的消費者業務總是處於季節性高位，尤其是我們的次級汽車業務，這就是為什麼您會看到該範圍保持在 40 bps 至 50 bps 範圍內，因此它將高於第二季度，但在我們給您的指導範圍內。

We'll move to our next question from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們將轉向 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari 提出的下一個問題。

On the efficiency side of things, I know I heard you around the efficiency program that you're working on and looking to bend the cost curve. How should we think about long-term efficiency for the company? As you're looking at this program, as you look at this quarter being the inflection and the -- your (inaudible) Clearly looking at across businesses. How should we think about the appropriate efficiency ratio is from a long-term perspective that you're likely to target here?

在效率方面，我知道我聽到了您正在製定的效率計劃，並希望改變成本曲線。我們應該如何考慮公司的長期效率？當您查看此計劃時，當您查看本季度的拐點時，您（聽不清）清楚地看到了各個業務。從長期角度來看，我們應該如何考慮您可能目標的適當效率比？

John, this is Bill. I'll take that. What I said was, obviously, is that the expense growth is going to decrease materially, so that's what we're going to see. And then the absolute expense base related to our businesses, I think the way to think about it, and this was very similar to how we came out of the merger is we should be sort of top quartile efficiency ratio. So the efficiency ratio is kind of be a bit determined by a little bit of the market conditions where rates are.

約翰，這是比爾。我會接受的。顯然，我所說的是費用增長將大幅下降，所以這就是我們將看到的情況。然後，與我們業務相關的絕對費用基礎，我認為思考這個問題的方式，這與我們完成合併的方式非常相似，我們應該達到最高四分之一的效率比。因此，效率比率在某種程度上是由利率所在的市場條件決定的。

But our business model, our construct, things that we're engaged in, I think rather than sort of honing in on a specific number because I think that's sort of boxes you in, so to speak, in terms of business mix and those type of things. I think really hone in on the expectation from shareholders ought to be that we ought to be sort of top quartile from an efficiency ratio given the opportunities that we have, both on the revenue side and then the diversity and construct of our business mix.

但我認為，我們的商業模式、我們的架構、我們所從事的事情，而不是在某個具體數字上進行磨練，因為我認為，可以說，在業務組合和此類事情方面，這就是你所處的框框。我認為真正關注股東的期望應該是，考慮到我們擁有的機會，無論是在收入方面，還是在我們業務組合的多樣性和結構方面，我們應該在效率比率方面名列前四分之一。

Okay, Bill, that's helpful. And then on the credit side, I appreciate the color you just gave around the nonaccruals. Can you give us your thoughts around additional reserve additions here? Is it likely that you still see some incremental build there? And then what -- where does the commercial real estate reserves stand right now, the ratio and the same for the office commercial real estate reserve?

好的，比爾，這很有幫助。然後在貸方方面，我很欣賞您剛剛為非應計項目所賦予的色彩。您能在這裡告訴我們您對額外儲備增加的想法嗎？您是否仍然會看到一些增量構建？那麼，現在商業地產儲備處於什麼水平，寫字樓商業地產儲備的比例是多少？

John, this is Clarke. While we're comfortable with our reserve levels right now based on what we know today, obviously, CECL's life of loan, given what you know today, obviously, if the economic outlook deteriorates any further or we do see additional deterioration beyond what we believe we've seen and forecasted today around the portfolio performance or risk attributes. You could see some additional incremental build, but I would not expect to see any sort of large build or hockey stick type. So I think it would be more incremental if we see some.

約翰，這是克拉克。雖然根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們對目前的準備金水平感到滿意，但顯然，鑑於您今天所了解的情況，顯然，如果經濟前景進一步惡化，或者我們確實看到超出我們今天所看到和預測的投資組合表現或風險屬性的進一步惡化，那麼CECL的貸款期限。您可以看到一些額外的增量構建，但我不希望看到任何類型的大型構建或曲棍球棒類型。所以我認為，如果我們看到一些，那將會是更多的增量。

And then as far as -- I did say the CRE office reserve is 6.2% overall, I would remind you all, we have about 40% of our portfolio with our small loans and our wealth and CCB segments, which carries higher reserves. So we've got -- but I think are really strong reserves against where I think the fundamental risk is in the office side, and then our total CRE allocation right now is [240] .

至於——我確實說過，CRE 辦公準備金總體為 6.2%，我想提醒大家，我們的投資組合中約有 40% 是小額貸款、財富和 CCB 部門，這些部門的準備金較高。所以我們有 - 但我認為針對我認為基本風險在辦公室方面的儲備確實很強大，然後我們現在的 CRE 總分配是 [240] 。

We'll move to our next question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將轉向加拿大皇家銀行杰拉德·卡西迪提出的下一個問題。

Clarke, you were talking about what's going on here in commercial real estate. And can you give us some further color on when you look at the nonaccrual increase in commercial real estate, is it because the owners of these properties are losing tenants? Is it more the value of the properties have fallen and therefore, the loan to values are out of sync? And then as part of the answer, how are you guys working to resolve working with your customers to resolve these issues?

克拉克，您剛才談論的是商業房地產領域正在發生的事情。當您看到商業房地產的非應計增長時，您能否進一步說明一下，是否是因為這些房產的所有者正在失去租戶？是否更多的是房產價值下降，因此貸款與價值不同步？作為答案的一部分，你們如何與客戶合作解決這些問題？

Great question, Gerard. I would say for us, we take a very strict view of accrual status when we think about whether a loan needs to be on nonaccrual or not. And I would just remind you what I said but majority of the loans that we placed on nonaccrual this quarter in the CRE office segment and C&I, but in the CRE office segment are actually currently -- current from a contractual basis right now because they still have good economic [rents].

好問題，杰拉德。我想說，對我們來說，當我們考慮貸款是否需要非應計貸款時，我們對應計狀況採取非常嚴格的看法。我只想提醒大家我說過的話，但我們本季度在商業地產辦公部門和商業與工業部門發放的大部分非應計貸款，但在商業地產辦公部門目前實際上是基於合同的，因為它們仍然具有良好的經濟[租金]。

They're hedged on the rate side, and so they're performing on their payments. But we're looking at what might happen at the end of term as the rate impact fully hit after the swaps go off and whether there's any risk in leasing activity and then what it costs to, for example, reposition the property from an operating standpoint or structurally to be sure the loan could be resized at maturity. And so that's what's driving our view of accrual status, so a lot of it is the valuation side unless the sponsor of principle can address these risks.

他們在利率方面進行對沖，因此他們正在履行付款義務。但我們正在研究期限結束時可能會發生什麼，因為利率影響在掉期結束後完全受到影響，以及租賃活動是否存在任何風險，以及例如從運營角度或結構上重新定位房產以確保貸款可以在到期時調整規模的成本。這就是推動我們對應計狀況的看法的原因，所以很大程度上是估值方面的，除非原則發起人能夠解決這些風險。

The good news is we're working with our sponsors. We don't see our clients in any way just walking away from the loans. We have long-term relationships there. And so we're looking at things like asking them to refit, bring in more equity, give us an LC, bring us some interest reserves. We may do some A/B note splits while as they attempt to sell the property, so we've got a lot of tools in the tool chest and we're working all of those. Our goal is to be early on this and work with as many borrowers as we can. And hopefully, the market will improve and will have good success.

好消息是我們正在與讚助商合作。我們不會看到我們的客戶以任何方式放棄貸款。我們在那裡有長期的合作關係。因此，我們正在考慮要求他們進行改裝、引入更多股本、給我們信用證、給我們一些利息儲備等。當他們試圖出售房產時，我們可能會進行一些 A/B 票據分割，所以我們的工具箱裡有很多工具，我們正在處理所有這些工具。我們的目標是儘早開始並與盡可能多的借款人合作。希望市場能夠改善並取得良好的成功。

And then not to minimize the focus because, I mean, it's acute, but just also remember, 75% of this portfolio is sitting in our markets, so we're sort of a net in-migration market. So while they're dealing with current tenants, people are consolidating their office space, all that's happening, we're experiencing that with all of our bars. We also have markets in which there's a lot of in-migration, so there's also more new tenants and more opportunities, and it's idiosyncratic, You've got to be in the right building, the Class A, the opportunities and our portfolio arcs to Class A and end market migration market. So again, not to minimize it, but we have some better opportunities from that side.

然後不要最小化焦點，因為我的意思是，它很尖銳，但也要記住，這個投資組合的 75% 位於我們的市場，所以我們是一個淨移民市場。因此，當他們與現有租戶打交道時，人們正在整合他們的辦公空間，所有這些正在發生，我們所有的酒吧都在經歷這種情況。我們的市場也有大量的移民，所以也有更多的新租戶和更多的機會，這是很特殊的，你必須在正確的建築中，A級，機會和我們的投資組合弧線到A級和終端市場遷移市場。再說一次，並不是要最小化它，但我們在這方面有一些更好的機會。

Yes. Just as a quick follow-up. Mike, when you look at the AOCI burn down, what would accelerate that in terms from an interest rate standpoint, the forward curve is looking for some short-term interest rate cuts early next year. What would bring that number down even faster from an interest rate environment standpoint, what would you have to see?

是的。就像快速跟進一樣。邁克，當你看到 AOCI 燒毀時，從利率的角度來看，什麼會加速這種情況，遠期曲線正在尋求明年初的一些短期利率下調。從利率環境的角度來看，什麼會使這個數字下降得更快，你會看到什麼？

Well, a couple of. I think the positive catalyst even away from rates would be, I guess, in connection with rates would be speeds increasing in terms of the actual cash flow profile. But if you're looking at the rates, we would need to see the long end rally and we'd actually need to see a parallel benefit from mortgage spreads as well. So some of the -- for example, rate rally you saw even from the end of the quarter to this to where we are 20, 30 basis points on the 10-year.

嗯，有幾個。我認為，即使遠離利率，我認為與利率相關的積極催化劑也將是實際現金流量狀況的增長速度。但如果你關注利率，我們需要看到長期反彈，而且實際上我們還需要看到抵押貸款利差帶來的平行收益。例如，從本季度末到現在，10 年期利率已經上漲 20、30 個基點。

If mortgage spreads don't come with it, it can lag a bit. But that would be the -- and Gerard, thanks for the question because what we tried to lay out on the right-hand part of that slide, frankly, was a pretty conservative burn-down analysis based on today's speeds, which are quite slow and with no benefit from yield curve normalization.

如果抵押貸款利差沒有隨之而來，它可能會稍微滯後。但這就是——杰拉德，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為坦率地說，我們試圖在幻燈片的右側部分展示的是基於當今速度的相當保守的燃盡分析，速度相當慢，並且沒有從收益率曲線正常化中受益。

We have time for one more question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們還有時間回答德意志銀行馬特·奧康納的另一個問題。

Just one more on costs here. I guess how are you thinking about organizing the effort in terms of who's kind of taking responsibility for running it? Are you thinking about bringing in any outside consultants to get kind of a fresh perspective? Or talk about the organization of it.

這裡再談一談成本。我猜你是如何考慮組織這項工作的，誰負責運行它？您是否正在考慮聘請外部顧問以獲得新的視角？或者說一下它的組織。

Matt, maybe at its simplest form, it's me in terms of sort of who's responsible, but our executive leadership team, and we've got a really good focus on this. We've got -- and by the way, we have different third parties helping us with different elements, so they're not an Uber approach because I actually think we need to own it. It needs to be part of the work that we do as a leadership team. But we have a variety of consultants looking on specific areas, so they may be focused on outsource -- or consolidation of a specific technology or an outsourcing of a particular thing, so they exist as part of the process.

馬特，也許最簡單的形式是，我是負責人，但我們的執行領導團隊，我們非常關注這一點。順便說一句，我們有不同的第三方在不同的方面幫助我們，所以它們不是 Uber 的方法，因為我實際上認為我們需要擁有它。它需要成為我們領導團隊工作的一部分。但我們有各種各樣的顧問在關注特定領域，因此他們可能專注於外包 - 或特定技術的整合或特定事物的外包，因此它們作為流程的一部分而存在。

But this is an overall leadership team, sleeves rolled up, everybody is in it. Not only line of business up, but most importantly, enterprise across where I think the real efficiencies are achieved and are more permanent as we think about the company.

但這是一個整體領導團隊，捲起袖子，每個人都在其中。不僅是業務線，而且最重要的是，我認為在整個企業中實現了真正的效率，並且當我們考慮公司時，效率會更加持久。

And in terms of how you think about the timing, is this going to be like a 1-year effort, a several-year effort, a continuous improvement effort. How are you thinking about that so far?

就你如何看待時間安排而言，這會是一年的努力，幾年的努力，還是持續改進的努力。到目前為止你對此有何看法？

Yes. I mean it's already underway, and it's a continuous improvement. I mean, I think the mentality of structuring the company around our strategic focus and creating a chassis that attaches to it is not a onetime thing. I think that's something that we're constantly doing, constantly looking at again, back to that commitment to sort of be top quartile in terms of how we run the company from an efficiency standpoint, so that's both the revenue and the expense part that comes along with that. So it's not a onetime big bang thing because I actually don't think those are permanent. I don't think they stick. This is a philosophy of how we run the company and the approach that we take long term.

是的。我的意思是它已經在進行中，並且是一個持續改進的過程。我的意思是，我認為圍繞我們的戰略重點構建公司並創建與之相連的底盤的心態並不是一次性的事情。我認為這是我們不斷做的事情，不斷地重新審視，回到我們從效率的角度運營公司的方式方面成為前四分之一的承諾，所以這既是隨之而來的收入和費用部分。所以這不是一次性的大爆炸，因為我實際上不認為這些是永久性的。我不認為他們會堅持下去。這是我們經營公司的理念以及我們長期採取的方法。

That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I'll turn the floor back over for any closing remarks.

我們今天的問答環節到此結束。我將重新發言以發表結束語。

Okay. That completes our earnings call today. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your interest in Truist, and we hope you have a great day. Karen, you may now disconnect the call.

好的。我們今天的財報電話會議到此結束。如果您還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。感謝您對 Truist 的興趣，祝您度過愉快的一天。凱倫，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

This concludes today's call. Thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。