Truist Financial Corp (TFC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation's Third Quarter 2021 (sic) [2022] Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

女士們先生們，大家好，歡迎來到 Truist Financial Corporation 的 2021 年第三季度（原文如此）[2022] 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在記錄此事件。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Ankur Vyas, Head of Investor Relations with Truist Financial Corporation. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，Truist Financial Corporation 投資者關係主管 Ankur Vyas 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Jake, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; and our CFO, Mike Maguire. During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's third quarter results and share their perspectives on our efforts to transition from an integration focus to an operating focus, current business conditions and our continued activation of Truist's purpose.

謝謝你，傑克，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Truist 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我們在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bill Rogers；以及我們的首席財務官 Mike Maguire。在今天上午的電話會議上，他們將討論 Truist 第三季度的業績，並分享他們對我們從整合重點過渡到運營重點的努力、當前業務狀況以及我們繼續激活 Truist 目標的看法。

Clarke Starnes, our Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer; Beau Cummins, our Vice Chair; and John Howard, our Chief Insurance Officer, are also in attendance and are available to participate in the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的副主席兼首席風險官 Clarke Starnes； Beau Cummins，我們的副主席；我們的首席保險官 John Howard 也出席了會議，可以參加電話會議的問答部分。

The accompanying presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com.

隨附的演示文稿以及我們的收益發布和補充財務信息可在 Truist 投資者關係網站 ir.truist.com 上獲取。

Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on Slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for the appropriate reconciliations to GAAP.

我們今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述和某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請查看演示文稿幻燈片 2 和幻燈片 3 中有關這些報表和措施的披露，以及與 GAAP 的適當調節的附錄。

In addition, Truist is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized live and archived webcast are located on our website.

此外，Truist 不對第三方提供的我們的收益電話會議記錄的準確性負責，也不對其進行編輯或保證其準確性。唯一授權的現場直播和存檔網絡廣播位於我們的網站上。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bill.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Ankur, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Our third quarter reflected strong progress in many areas overall. However, financial performance was mixed, reflecting continued challenging market conditions. Strong spread income resulted from significant margin expansion that exceeded our guidance and strong broad-based loan growth. Credit quality remains excellent. At the same time, capital markets revenue did not rebound as anticipated, and in fact, declined linked quarter.

謝謝 Ankur，大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們的第三季度反映了在許多領域的整體進步。然而，財務表現參差不齊，反映出持續充滿挑戰的市場狀況。強勁的利差收入來自超出我們指引的顯著利潤增長和強勁的廣泛貸款增長。信用質量保持優良。與此同時，資本市場收入並沒有像預期的那樣反彈，實際上環比下降。

Strategically, we continue to realize the benefits of shifting from integrating to operating, which I'll share more on later. I acknowledge that operating losses continue to be too high. However, other expense growth reflects targeted investments in talented technology in key areas of long-term sustainable growth. Merger calls diminished again, and our remaining decommissioning activities are mostly complete and will be finalized by year-end. We'll share details on each of these themes throughout the call.

從戰略上講，我們繼續意識到從整合轉向運營的好處，我將在稍後分享更多。我承認經營虧損仍然過高。然而，其他費用增長反映了在長期可持續增長的關鍵領域對人才技術的有針對性的投資。合併電話再次減少，我們剩餘的退役活動大部分已完成，將在年底前完成。我們將在整個通話過程中分享每個主題的詳細信息。

And turning to our purpose on Slide 4. Truist is a purpose-driven company that's dedicated to inspire and build better lives and communities. This commitment to purpose and our value of care could not have been more apparent in how our teammates responded to each other and their clients in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. I experienced this firsthand when I visited with our teams in Southwest Florida soon after the storm subsided. Clients expressed their significant appreciation that we opened our branches to care for them during this time of loss. The many truckloads of food, water, supplies and other critical items that we sent to the region made a real difference. And the $1.25 million donation from the Truist Foundation will continue to provide support to affected areas in Florida and South Carolina.

轉向我們在幻燈片 4 上的目標。Truist 是一家以目標為導向的公司，致力於激發和建設更美好的生活和社區。這種對目標的承諾和我們關心的價值在颶風伊恩過後我們的隊友如何回應彼此和他們的客戶時再明顯不過了。風暴平息後不久，我在佛羅里達州西南部拜訪我們的團隊時，親身體驗了這一點。客戶對我們在這段損失期間開設分支機構來照顧他們表示非常感謝。我們運送到該地區的大量卡車食物、水、補給品和其他重要物品產生了真正的影響。而來自 Truist 基金會的 125 萬美元捐款將繼續為佛羅里達州和南卡羅來納州的受災地區提供支持。

The rebuilding process has only begun, and Truist is committed to supporting these communities in the short term, but also helping them be more resilient in the long term. And this is one of the many ways we're living our purpose, as you can see on Slide 5. In order to inspire, it's often necessary to be bold and to be first, and that's exactly what we did on October 1. We made a significant investment in our teammates by raising our minimum wage to $22 per hour. The new minimum wage benefits approximately 14,000 teammates, about 80% of whom are in client-facing roles. We strongly believe this action will drive purposeful growth and offset the estimated $200 million increase in annual personnel expense through improved teammate recruitment and retention, lower turnover expense, better execution and an all-around better client experience. In fact, we're already starting to see the benefits of the higher minimum wage. Teller turnover in August and September was down about 25% compared to the first 7 months of the year, and our branch vacancy rate has been cut in half since July.

重建過程才剛剛開始，Truist 致力於在短期內支持這些社區，但從長遠來看也幫助他們增強彈性。這是我們實現目標的眾多方式之一，正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣。為了激發靈感，通常需要大膽並成為第一，而這正是我們在 10 月 1 日所做的。我們通過將我們的最低工資提高到每小時 22 美元，對我們的隊友進行了重大投資。新的最低工資使大約 14,000 名隊友受益，其中約 80% 擔任面向客戶的職位。我們堅信這一舉措將推動有目的的增長，並通過改善隊友的招聘和保留、降低人員流動費用、更好的執行力和全面更好的客戶體驗來抵消每年增加的 2 億美元的人事費用。事實上，我們已經開始看到提高最低工資的好處。與今年前 7 個月相比，8 月和 9 月的櫃員營業額下降了約 25%，而我們的網點空置率自 7 月以來已減少了一半。

We also advanced our commitment to inspire with the launch of Truist One Banking in July. Truist One is our differentiated suite of checking solutions that reimagine everyday banking, including 2 new accounts that eliminate overdraft fees and provide greater access to credit. The flagship Truist One checking account has $0 overdraft fees and the capability to provide qualifying clients the liquidity they need through a simple $100 negative balance buffer. We also introduced the Truist Confidence Account, which provides consumers access to mainstream banking services and no overdraft fees. These accounts meaningfully advance financial inclusion in our communities and have been embraced by new and existing clients. Since their launch, overall branch deposit production has increased 13% in August and September compared to the prior year despite having 16% fewer branches.

我們還承諾在 7 月推出 Truist One Banking 以激發靈感。 Truist One 是我們差異化的支票解決方案套件，可重新構想日常銀行業務，包括 2 個新賬戶，可消除透支費用並提供更多信貸渠道。旗艦 Truist One 支票賬戶的透支費為 0 美元，並且能夠通過簡單的 100 美元負餘額緩衝為合格客戶提供所需的流動性。我們還推出了 Truist Confidence Account，為消費者提供主流銀行服務且無透支費用。這些賬戶有意義地促進了我們社區的金融包容性，並受到了新老客戶的歡迎。自推出以來，儘管分支機構數量減少了 16%，但 8 月和 9 月的總體分支機構存款產量與去年同期相比增長了 13%。

We're also in the process of rolling out our cash reserve deposit base credit line up to $750. We began a pilot earlier this month and expect the cash reserve feature to be available across our footprint later this quarter.

我們還在推出最高 750 美元的現金儲備存款基礎信用額度。我們本月早些時候開始了試點，預計現金儲備功能將在本季度晚些時候在我們的業務範圍內提供。

Now turning to Slide 7. Merger costs totaled $152 million, down 30% sequentially and 58% year-over-year as our integration activities wind down. The final merger costs expected in the fourth quarter are primarily related to our decommissioning efforts, which, as I mentioned, will conclude by year-end. The completion of merger activities is a monumental move forward that will reflect a seamless client experience, simplify our narrative, enhance our earnings quality, improve capital and help us realize industry-leading returns.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。隨著我們的整合活動逐漸結束，合併成本總計 1.52 億美元，環比下降 30%，同比下降 58%。預計第四季度的最終合併成本主要與我們的退役工作有關，正如我提到的，這將在年底前結束。合併活動的完成是一個巨大的進步，它將反映無縫的客戶體驗、簡化我們的敘述、提高我們的盈利質量、改善資本並幫助我們實現行業領先的回報。

Turning to our third quarter performance highlights on Slide 8. We earned $1.5 billion or $1.15 per share on a reported basis. Adjusted earnings totaled $1.7 billion or $1.24 per share, up 3% sequentially as 5% adjusted PPNR growth was partially offset by higher provision as a result of our higher consumer net charge-offs.

轉向我們在幻燈片 8 上的第三季度業績亮點。在報告的基礎上，我們賺取了 15 億美元或每股 1.15 美元。調整後收益總計 17 億美元或每股 1.24 美元，環比增長 3%，因為 5% 的調整後 PPNR 增長被我們更高的消費者淨沖銷導致的更高準備金部分抵消。

Net interest income grew 10% to a post-merger high, benefiting from higher short-term rates and well-controlled deposit costs, all of which drove significant margin expansion as well as strong broad-based loan growth. Despite solid forward progress, the pace of PPNR growth was weaker than we had anticipated, primarily due to ongoing pressure in investment banking as well as unfavorable valuation marks taken at quarter end.

受益於較高的短期利率和控制良好的存款成本，淨利息收入增長 10% 至合併後的高位，所有這些都推動了利潤率的顯著增長以及廣泛貸款的強勁增長。儘管取得了堅實的進展，但 PPNR 的增長速度低於我們的預期，這主要是由於投資銀行業務的持續壓力以及季度末的不利估值標記。

Adjusted expenses increased 2.6% linked quarter mostly as expected, however, operational losses remain elevated. While we made a purposeful decision to proactively refund our clients for fraud losses, our overall goal is to reduce them significantly to improve our results and the client experience. This is an industry-wide phenomenon. Part of our technology spend is directly related to this effort. These investments include efforts to enhance identity authentication and fraud detection, among others.

調整後的費用環比增長 2.6%，基本符合預期，但運營虧損仍然居高不下。雖然我們做出了有目的的決定，主動退還客戶的欺詐損失，但我們的總體目標是顯著減少欺詐損失，以改善我們的結果和客戶體驗。這是全行業的現象。我們的部分技術支出與這項工作直接相關。這些投資包括加強身份認證和欺詐檢測等方面的努力。

Adjusted operating leverage was a strong 260 basis points compared to the third quarter of last year, reflecting strong net interest income growth, combined with modest expense growth. This momentum has helped us close the gap towards our goal of positive operating leverage for the full year 2022. Asset quality remains excellent, notwithstanding normalizing trends and a seasonal uptick and net charge-offs within our consumer portfolios.

與去年第三季度相比，調整後的經營槓桿高出 260 個基點，反映出強勁的淨利息收入增長以及適度的支出增長。這種勢頭幫助我們縮小了與 2022 年全年積極運營槓桿目標的差距。資產質量仍然非常好，儘管趨勢正常化、季節性上升和消費者投資組合中的淨沖銷。

We deployed 10 basis points of capital to support strong loan growth and complete the BenefitMall acquisition, which expands our capabilities and fills a strategic gap in our wholesale insurance business. Our capital position remains strong relative to our risk and profitability profile, and we're confident in our ability to withstand and outperform in a range of economic scenarios.

我們部署了 10 個基點的資本來支持強勁的貸款增長並完成了對 BenefitMall 的收購，這擴大了我們的能力並填補了我們批發保險業務的戰略空白。相對於我們的風險和盈利狀況，我們的資本狀況仍然強勁，我們對我們在一系列經濟情景中承受和超越的能力充滿信心。

Now turning to Slide 9. Digital activity continues to increase from the first quarter levels, reflecting strong momentum post integration. This progress reflects our significantly improved agility and responsiveness from being on one digital platform. Year-to-date, we've delivered 3x more production releases across business, retail and wealth than in all of 2021. Client satisfaction with their digital experience has also improved rapidly each quarter.

現在轉到幻燈片 9。數字活動從第一季度的水平繼續增加，反映出整合後的強勁勢頭。這一進步反映了我們在一個數字平台上的敏捷性和響應能力得到了顯著提高。年初至今，與 2021 年全年相比，我們在商業、零售和財富方面交付的產品版本數量增加了 3 倍。客戶對其數字體驗的滿意度也每個季度都在迅速提高。

Consistent with our pivot from integrating to operating, our technology and digital teams are allocating more of their time, energy and resources to transformation and innovation. To that end, we recently launched Truist Assist to our retail and wealth clients through our mobile and online banking platforms. Truist Assist is our AI-enhanced virtual assistant that leverages natural language processing and natural language understanding to interact and respond to client questions. Through September 30, Truist Assist had been deployed to our personal banking clients and had been utilized by 114,000 unique clients to handle 147,000 interactions that otherwise might have occurred in a branch or contact center.

與我們從整合到運營的重心一致，我們的技術和數字團隊將更多的時間、精力和資源分配給轉型和創新。為此，我們最近通過我們的移動和網上銀行平台向我們的零售和財富客戶推出了 Truist Assist。 Truist Assist 是我們的 AI 增強虛擬助手，它利用自然語言處理和自然語言理解來交互和回答客戶問題。截至 9 月 30 日，Truist Assist 已部署到我們的個人銀行客戶，並已被 114,000 名獨特客戶用來處理 147,000 次交互，否則這些交互可能發生在分支機構或聯絡中心。

We're also expanding LightStream, both by enhancing the sophistication of its underwriting models through artificial intelligence and by piloting a new savings product to broaden its capability set. In addition, the recent acquisition of the Arena platform from software start-up Zaloni, will help accelerate our data journey through the development of a stronger integrated data infrastructure solution deployed in a hybrid cloud environment. As a result, our data quality, analytics and speed to market will all significantly improve. Overall, I'm highly optimistic about the potential of our increased investments and capabilities to enhance performance and client experience.

我們還在擴展 LightStream，既通過人工智能增強其承保模型的複雜性，又通過試點新的儲蓄產品來擴大其能力集。此外，最近從軟件初創公司 Zaloni 收購了 Arena 平台，這將有助於通過開發部署在混合雲環境中的更強大的集成數據基礎架構解決方案來加速我們的數據之旅。因此，我們的數據質量、分析和上市速度都將顯著提高。總的來說，我對我們增加投資和能力以提高績效和客戶體驗的潛力非常樂觀。

Now turning to loans and leases on Slide 10. Loan growth was strong and broad-based for the second consecutive quarter. Average balances grew $13 billion or 4.3% sequentially in part due to our shift from integrating to operating. C&I remains strong as average balances grew $7 billion or 4.5%. C&I loans grew across most CIB industry verticals and product groups, reflecting higher revolver utilization, the current shift to banks from the bond market and our increased competitiveness for new and existing clients. Revolver utilization increased just over 100 basis points to approximately 31%, the highest level since the second quarter of 2020.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的貸款和租賃。貸款增長強勁且基礎廣泛，連續第二個季度增長。平均餘額環比增長 130 億美元或 4.3%，部分原因是我們從整合轉向運營。 C&I 保持強勁，平均餘額增長 70 億美元或 4.5%。 C&I 貸款在大多數 CIB 垂直行業和產品組中都有增長，反映出更高的循環利用率、當前從債券市場向銀行的轉移以及我們對新老客戶的競爭力增強。左輪手槍的使用率增加了 100 多個基點，達到約 31%，為 2020 年第二季度以來的最高水平。

In our Commercial Community Bank, C&I balances, excluding PPP and dealer floor plan increased 1.3%, the seventh consecutive quarter of growth. We achieved growth across almost all of our CCB regions.

在我們的商業社區銀行，不包括 PPP 和經銷商平面圖的 C&I 餘額增長了 1.3%，這是連續第七個季度增長。我們幾乎在所有建行地區都實現了增長。

Residential mortgage balances increased $4 billion or 8.2%, reflecting previous correspondent mortgage production and slower prepayment speeds. Excluding mortgage, consumer and card balances increased 3.1%. A strong growth in prime auto, service finance, LightStream, recreational lending and Sheffield, more than offset runoff in our partnership and student portfolios.

住宅抵押貸款餘額增加 40 億美元或 8.2%，反映了之前相應的抵押貸款生產和預付速度放緩。不包括抵押貸款、消費和信用卡餘額增長 3.1%。優質汽車、服務金融、LightStream、休閒貸款和謝菲爾德的強勁增長，足以抵消我們合作夥伴關係和學生投資組合的流失。

Production in our consumer finance business is up 20% year-over-year, reflecting good business development momentum with Service Finance, abating inventory shortages within Sheffield and RAC and improved automated decisioning capabilities across the board, which ultimately improves consistency, efficiency and creates better client experiences. Near term, our loan growth outlook remains healthy as our pipelines are relatively strong and teammates continue to shift their capacity from integrating to operating and take advantage of new tools in their tool kit.

我們的消費金融業務產量同比增長 20%，反映出服務金融業務發展勢頭良好，謝菲爾德和 RAC 庫存短缺問題得到緩解，全面提高了自動化決策能力，最終提高了一致性、效率並創造更好的結果客戶體驗。短期內，我們的貸款增長前景依然健康，因為我們的渠道相對強大，隊友繼續將他們的能力從整合轉向運營，並利用他們工具包中的新工具。

Over the medium term, loan growth may moderate as clients absorb and digest the impact of higher rates, higher inflation and slowing growth. We also expect growth in residential mortgage and prime auto to slow going forward as we shift our capital towards higher-return opportunities.

從中期來看，隨著客戶吸收和消化更高利率、更高通脹和增長放緩的影響，貸款增長可能會放緩。我們還預計，隨著我們將資本轉向更高回報的機會，住宅抵押貸款和優質汽車的增長將放緩。

Truist continues to remain well-positioned to advise clients across a broad range of economic scenarios, given our capabilities, talented teammates and increased capacity post integration.

鑑於我們的能力、才華橫溢的隊友和整合後能力的增強，Truist 繼續處於有利地位，可以在廣泛的經濟情景中為客戶提供建議。

Now turning to deposits on Slide 11. Average deposits decreased $3.7 billion or just under 1% in the third quarter, driven by tightening monetary policy, reduced savings in response to higher inflation and seasonal patterns. Deposit costs were very well-controlled, reflecting Truist's strong retail and commercial franchise and our enviable market share position. In addition, our lines of business and corporate treasury teams continued to deliver excellent execution against a thoughtful strategy to be attentive to client needs and client relationships while maximizing value outside of rate paid. As a result, interest-bearing cumulative deposit betas have been 21% thus far, well below our modeled assumptions.

現在轉向幻燈片 11 上的存款。第三季度平均存款減少 37 億美元或略低於 1%，這是由於貨幣政策收緊、儲蓄減少以應對更高的通貨膨脹和季節性模式。存款成本得到很好的控制，反映了 Truist 強大的零售和商業特許經營權以及我們令人羨慕的市場份額地位。此外，我們的業務線和企業財務團隊繼續根據深思熟慮的戰略提供出色的執行力，以關注客戶需求和客戶關係，同時最大限度地提高支付率之外的價值。因此，迄今為止，計息累計存款貝塔值為 21%，遠低於我們的模型假設。

As the interest rate environment evolves, we'll continue to take a balanced approach to managing deposit growth and rate paid, particularly given our broad access to other forms of funding.

隨著利率環境的演變，我們將繼續採取平衡的方法來管理存款增長和支付利率，特別是考慮到我們可以廣泛獲得其他形式的資金。

Before I turn it over to Mike, I'd like to acknowledge and thank Daryl Bible. He has built a best-in-class finance function. He played a key essential role in the success of our merger, and he's really been incredibly supportive in helping Mike transition into the CFO role. Many of you in the investment community know Daryl well, and appreciate his knowledge and transparency, which will continue to be hallmarks of Truist going forward.

在我把它交給 Mike 之前，我想承認並感謝 Daryl Bible。他建立了一流的財務部門。他在我們合併的成功中發揮了關鍵作用，並且在幫助 Mike 過渡到 CFO 角色方面提供了難以置信的支持。投資界的許多人都非常了解 Daryl，並欣賞他的知識和透明度，這將繼續成為 Truist 前進的標誌。

I'm also excited to introduce Mike Maguire as our new CFO. Most recently, Mike led Truist Consumer Finance and Payments businesses including LightStream, Service Finance, Sheffield and auto finance. He was also responsible for our enterprise payment strategy group and wholesale payments businesses, including treasury solutions, merchant services and commercial card. Mike is a strategic thinker, a purpose-driven leader with an exceptional depth of experience across our enterprise and a deep understanding of how technology is shaping our operating environment. He's truly an industry thought leader in the fintech space. We'll certainly draw on this experience as Mike assumes his new role during this time of exciting transformation.

我也很高興介紹 Mike Maguire 作為我們的新首席財務官。最近，Mike 領導了 Truist 消費金融和支付業務，包括 LightStream、Service Finance、Sheffield 和汽車金融。他還負責我們的企業支付戰略組和批發支付業務，包括資金解決方案、商戶服務和商務卡。 Mike 是一位戰略思想家，一位以目標為導向的領導者，在我們的企業中擁有豐富的經驗，並且對技術如何塑造我們的運營環境有著深刻的理解。他是金融科技領域真正的行業思想領袖。我們肯定會藉鑑這一經驗，因為 Mike 在這個激動人心的轉型時期擔任新角色。

So Mike, with that, I'm going to turn it over to you.

所以邁克，有了這個，我要把它交給你。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I would also like to thank Daryl for his guidance and his support throughout my transition into the CFO role. I'm excited about the opportunity, and I'm confident that the transition will be seamless for all of our stakeholders. I also want to thank my teammates in the finance organization for welcoming me and for their support. We have a really talented team, and I look forward to working with all of them.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早上好。在開始之前，我還要感謝 Daryl 在我過渡到 CFO 角色期間的指導和支持。我對這個機會感到很興奮，而且我相信過渡對我們所有的利益相關者來說都是無縫的。我還要感謝財務部門的同事們對我的歡迎和支持。我們擁有一支非常有才華的團隊，我期待與他們所有人合作。

For our analysts and investors, I'll be on the road soon, and hope to meet as many of you as possible. This is really a great opportunity, and I'm excited about helping take Truist to new heights.

對於我們的分析師和投資者，我很快就要上路了，希望能見到盡可能多的人。這真的是一個很好的機會，我很高興能幫助 Truist 達到新的高度。

So moving to Slide 12. For the quarter, net interest income increased 10% sequentially to $3.8 billion as higher short-term interest rates and strong loan growth more than offset lower purchase accounting accretion. Core net interest income was up a strong 14%. Deposit costs remain well-controlled, reflecting the strength of our deposit franchise. Lower purchase accounting accretion was the result of elevated accretion in previous periods due to conversion activity and slowing prepays in the current period.

轉到幻燈片 12。本季度，淨利息收入環比增長 10% 至 38 億美元，這是因為較高的短期利率和強勁的貸款增長抵消了較低的採購會計增長。核心淨利息收入強勁增長 14%。存款成本仍然得到很好的控制，反映了我們存款業務的實力。較低的採購會計增值是由於轉換活動和本期預付款放緩導致前期增值增加的結果。

Reported net interest margin increased 23 basis points, while core net interest margin increased 30 basis points, driven by similar trends as net interest income.

報告的淨息差增加了 23 個基點，而核心淨息差增加了 30 個基點，這與淨利息收入的趨勢相似。

Moving to Slide 13. Fee income decreased $146 million or 6.5% sequentially. Insurance income decreased $100 million primarily due to seasonally lower property and casualty commissions. Investment banking and trading income decreased $33 million as lower fees from structured real estate, investment-grade and high-yield bonds and syndicated and leveraged finance were partially offset by increased M&A fees. Wider credit spreads, tightening liquidity and general macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty are all contributing to slower activity levels.

轉到幻燈片 13。手續費收入環比減少 1.46 億美元或 6.5%。保險收入減少了 1 億美元，這主要是由於財產和意外險佣金的季節性下降。投資銀行和交易收入減少 3300 萬美元，原因是結構性房地產、投資級和高收益債券以及銀團和槓桿融資的費用減少被併購費用增加部分抵消。信用利差擴大、流動性收緊以及總體宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定性都導致活動水平放緩。

Despite these current headwinds, we continue to make strong strategic progress within corporate and investment banking. Capital markets revenue from noncorporate and investment banking clients is up 25% year-over-year as our Commercial Community Bank, commercial real estate and wealth teammates continue to learn how to successfully partner with CIB to deliver strategic advice to our clients. Our lead table position has improved across most products, including equity capital markets, high yield, investment grade and syndicated and leveraged finance.

儘管目前存在這些不利因素，但我們繼續在企業和投資銀行業務中取得強勁的戰略進展。來自非企業和投資銀行客戶的資本市場收入同比增長 25%，因為我們的商業社區銀行、商業房地產和財富團隊繼續學習如何與 CIB 成功合作，為我們的客戶提供戰略建議。我們在大多數產品中的領先地位都有所提高，包括股權資本市場、高收益、投資級別以及銀團和槓桿融資。

Given the strategic progress, we intend to continue to take advantage of the challenging environment to invest in Truist Securities by selectively adding talent to drive long-term share gains as we've successfully done during previous market disruptions.

鑑於戰略進展，我們打算繼續利用充滿挑戰的環境投資 Truist Securities，有選擇地增加人才以推動長期份額增長，正如我們在之前的市場動盪期間所成功做到的那樣。

Other income, excluding impacts from our nonqualified plan, decreased $17 million linked quarter, primarily due to valuation-related marks. Compared to a year ago, other income decreased $81 million as a result of lower investment income and valuation marks on SBIC-related and other strategic investments.

其他收入，不包括我們不合格計劃的影響，環比減少 1700 萬美元，這主要是由於與估值相關的標記。與一年前相比，由於 SBIC 相關和其他戰略投資的投資收入和估值標記較低，其他收入減少了 8100 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 14. Adjusted noninterest expense increased $83 million or 2.6% sequentially, reflecting forward-focused investments in talent and technology as well as elevated operational losses. Professional fees and outside processing expense increased $34 million on an adjusted basis as we advanced critical projects, including investments in cybersecurity, contact center modernization, fraud detection and the build-out of our in-house payments capabilities. Other expense increased $28 million, primarily due to higher operational losses.

轉到幻燈片 14。調整後的非利息費用環比增加 8300 萬美元或 2.6%，反映了對人才和技術的前瞻性投資以及運營虧損的增加。隨著我們推進關鍵項目，包括對網絡安全、聯絡中心現代化、欺詐檢測和內部支付能力建設的投資，專業費用和外部處理費用在調整後的基礎上增加了 3400 萬美元。其他費用增加了 2800 萬美元，主要是由於運營虧損增加。

Personnel expense increased $23 million on an adjusted basis, reflecting strategic and purposeful additions in technology, Commercial Community Banking, CIB, consumer finance and wealth as well as the BenefitMall acquisition.

調整後的人事費用增加了 2300 萬美元，反映了在技術、商業社區銀行、CIB、消費者金融和財富以及 BenefitMall 收購方面的戰略性和有目的的增加。

Compared to the third quarter of last year, adjusted noninterest expense only increased 2%. This modest increase was driven by higher operational losses and investment spend, which were partially offset by merger-related cost savings in software and net occupancy expense.

與去年第三季度相比，調整後的非利息支出僅增長了 2%。這一小幅增長是由更高的運營損失和投資支出推動的，但部分被與合併相關的軟件成本節省和淨佔用費用所抵消。

Overall, we continue to focus on generating expense reductions in certain areas to fund longer-term investments in talent and technology and to generate ongoing operating leverage. As an example, we believe recent technology investments to enhance identity authentication, fraud detection, among other factors, will mitigate operational losses. Also, with the conversion behind us, we have additional flexibility to rationalize certain businesses such as mortgage, where capacity exceeds demand. Lastly, we have our final leg of data center-related technology savings that is expected to materialize throughout the fourth quarter.

總的來說，我們繼續專注於在某些領域減少開支，為人才和技術的長期投資提供資金，並產生持續的經營槓桿。例如，我們認為最近用於增強身份驗證、欺詐檢測等的技術投資將減少運營損失。此外，隨著我們的轉型，我們有更多的靈活性來合理化某些業務，例如容量超過需求的抵押業務。最後，我們還有與數據中心相關的技術節省的最後一站，預計將在整個第四季度實現。

Below the line, our third quarter results also reflected an effective tax rate of 18.2% down from 19.5% in the second quarter primarily due to discrete tax benefits arising from final true-ups to our 2021 tax return. We continue to expect a normal effective tax rate to be 20%, which translates to 21% on a fully taxable equivalent basis.

在此線之下，我們第三季度的業績還反映了 18.2% 的有效稅率，低於第二季度的 19.5%，這主要是由於我們 2021 年納稅申報表的最終調整帶來的離散稅收優惠。我們繼續預計正常的有效稅率為 20%，這相當於完全應稅等值基礎上的 21%。

Moving to Slide 15. Asset quality continues to be excellent, reflecting our prudent risk culture and diverse portfolio. Leading credit indicators remain strong. Nonperforming loans decreased 1 basis point and loans 30 to 89 days past due decreased 7 basis points. Net charge-offs remained benign at 27 basis points, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily due to normalizing trends and seasonality in certain consumer portfolios.

轉到幻燈片 15。資產質量繼續保持出色，反映出我們審慎的風險文化和多樣化的投資組合。領先的信貸指標依然強勁。不良貸款下降 1 個基點，逾期 30 至 89 天的貸款下降 7 個基點。淨沖銷保持良性，為 27 個基點，比上一季度上升 5 個基點，這主要是由於某些消費者組合的趨勢正常化和季節性。

Our total allowance increased $18 million to support our loan growth, and the ALLL ratio decreased 4 basis points due to strong portfolio performance and growth in higher-quality loans, partially offset by a moderately slower economic outlook.

我們的總準備金增加了 1800 萬美元以支持我們的貸款增長，由於強勁的投資組合表現和高質量貸款的增長，ALLL 比率下降了 4 個基點，部分被經濟前景適度放緩所抵消。

Moving on to Slide 16. Our CET1 ratio decreased from 9.2% to 9.1% as we deployed capital to support strong loan growth and to complete the BenefitMall acquisition. We also increased the dividend 8% to $0.52 per share beginning in the third quarter, reflecting our confidence in our improving earnings trajectory. Overall, our capital position remains strong in light of our risk and profitability profile, and we maintain a strong liquidity position with access to multiple sources of funding for incremental loan growth.

轉到幻燈片 16。我們的 CET1 比率從 9.2% 下降到 9.1%，因為我們部署資本以支持強勁的貸款增長並完成對 BenefitMall 的收購。從第三季度開始，我們還將股息提高 8% 至每股 0.52 美元，反映出我們對盈利軌跡改善的信心。總體而言，鑑於我們的風險和盈利狀況，我們的資本狀況仍然強勁，並且我們保持強勁的流動性狀況，可以通過多種資金來源獲得增量貸款增長。

Turning now to Slide 17. I'll next outline the strategic rationale and financial impact of 2 recently announced insurance acquisitions. First, BenefitMall closed on September 1, providing a scaled entry into wholesale employee benefits and filling one of the remaining strategic gaps in our capability set. BenefitMall is expected to add $160 million of annual revenue at an initial EBITDA margin in the mid-20% that will build to the mid-30% over time as synergies are realized.

現在轉到幻燈片 17。接下來我將概述 2 項最近宣布的保險收購的戰略依據和財務影響。首先，BenefitMall 於 9 月 1 日關閉，提供了大規模進入批發員工福利的機會，並填補了我們能力集中剩餘的戰略差距之一。 BenefitMall 預計將增加 1.6 億美元的年收入，初始 EBITDA 利潤率在 20% 左右，隨著協同效應的實現，該利潤率將隨著時間的推移增加到 30% 左右。

The transaction also has potential earned benefits within Truist Insurance by supporting our brokers at McGriff, our retail insurance business and also outside Truist Insurance with our corporate and commercial clients.

通過支持我們在 McGriff 的經紀人、我們的零售保險業務以及 Truist Insurance 外部與我們的企業和商業客戶的交易，該交易還可以在 Truist Insurance 內部獲得潛在收益。

We also recently announced the acquisition of BankDirect Capital Finance. Strategically, BankDirect effectively doubles our premium finance business, broadens our capabilities to include life insurance and expands our West Coast presence. Pro forma, we estimate Truist Insurance Holdings will be the #2 premium finance player in the market after this deal closes later this quarter. BankDirect brings with it a $3.2 billion loan portfolio with strong projected growth, attractive profitability, limited credit risk and short duration. While both acquisitions are expected to be dilutive initially, we believe they are strategic and financially attractive over the long run.

我們最近還宣布收購 BankDirect Capital Finance。從戰略上講，BankDirect 有效地將我們的保費金融業務翻了一番，擴大了我們的能力，包括人壽保險，並擴大了我們在西海岸的業務。預計，在本季度晚些時候交易完成後，我們估計 Truist Insurance Holdings 將成為市場上排名第二的優質金融公司。 BankDirect 帶來了 32 億美元的貸款組合，具有強勁的預期增長、誘人的盈利能力、有限的信用風險和短期的貸款組合。雖然這兩項收購最初預計會稀釋，但我們認為從長遠來看它們在戰略和財務上具有吸引力。

So I'll now provide new guidance for the fourth quarter. Looking into the fourth quarter, we expect a mid double-digit basis point increase in both our core and reported net interest margin due to benefits from the recent rate hikes and a projected 75 basis point hike in November. Fees will rebound sequentially, driven by insurance income improving due to seasonality, solid organic growth and the full impact of the BenefitMall acquisition. The extent to which investment banking fees improve will be dictated by levels of capital markets activity.

所以我現在將為第四季度提供新的指導。展望第四季度，由於近期加息和預計 11 月加息 75 個基點，我們預計核心淨息差和報告的淨息差將出現中等兩位數的基點增長。由於季節性、穩健的有機增長和收購 BenefitMall 的全面影響，保險收入有所改善，費用將連續反彈。投資銀行費用提高的程度將取決於資本市場活動的水平。

Adjusted expenses are anticipated to increase approximately 1% as the increase to minimum wage, investments and revenue-producing businesses and technology and acquisitions are partially offset by the impacts of cost savings.

調整後的費用預計將增加約 1%，因為最低工資、投資和創收業務以及技術和收購的增加部分被成本節約的影響所抵消。

Putting these pieces all together, we expect adjusted PPNR to grow approximately 10% with some upside based on the realization of investment banking pipelines. Based on our year-to-date results and fourth quarter expectations, we are on track to achieve positive operating leverage for the full year.

將這些因素放在一起，我們預計調整後的 PPNR 將增長約 10%，並且基於投資銀行管道的實現有一些上行空間。根據我們年初至今的業績和第四季度的預期，我們有望在全年實現積極的經營槓桿。

We remain consistent with our expectations that the net charge-off ratio will be between 25 and 35 basis points for the full year due to our performance year-to-date and normalizing trends across our loan portfolio.

由於我們年初至今的業績和貸款組合的正常化趨勢，我們仍然與我們的預期一致，即全年淨註銷率將在 25 至 35 個基點之間。

With that, I will turn it back to Bill to conclude.

有了這個，我將把它轉回 Bill 來總結。

Great. Thank you, Mike. Continuing to our strategic shift on Slide 18. Earlier this year, I expressed my view that the first quarter was a strategic and financial turning point for Truist. Our third quarter results build upon the second quarter progress even as market conditions diminished overall PPNR trajectory, progress is real and it's palpable. We've made significant progress in our digital and technology areas as evidenced by improving mobile app ratings and enhanced client experience within treasury and payments and many other new features and capabilities that strengthen the financial confidence of our clients.

偉大的。謝謝你，邁克。繼續我們在幻燈片 18 上的戰略轉變。今年早些時候，我表達了我的觀點，即第一季度是 Truist 的戰略和財務轉折點。我們第三季度的業績建立在第二季度的進展之上，即使市場狀況削弱了 PPNR 的整體軌跡，進展是真實的，而且是顯而易見的。我們在數字和技術領域取得了重大進展，這可以通過提高移動應用程序評級和增強客戶在資金和支付方面的體驗以及增強客戶財務信心的許多其他新特性和功能來證明。

Speed to answer in our care centers is now well below our initial service level agreements and more investment will improve the efficiency as well. Loan production in the third quarter was the highest it's been at Truist, up 8% compared to the second quarter. Branch loan and deposit production are up a solid 14% and 20% like quarter, respectively, as teammates become more confident with processes and systems, but also improve solutions and capabilities.

我們護理中心的回答速度現在遠低於我們最初的服務水平協議，更多的投資也將提高效率。第三季度的貸款產量是 Truist 有史以來最高的，與第二季度相比增長了 8%。分行貸款和存款產量分別比上一季度增長 14% 和 20%，因為團隊成員對流程和系統更有信心，同時也改進了解決方案和能力。

IRM referrals to our wealth businesses increased 17% sequentially and the amount of income generated from IRM referrals by our Commercial Community Bank was the second highest ever, both highlighting the power of our advice-driven and client-centric model. Our brand awareness was up almost 400 basis points in the third quarter while our peers were flat to down. And our brand consideration which measures whether consumers are giving Truist a serious thought was 210 basis points and ranks us fifth highest in our markets, having only been alive for that brand for 3 years. Almost all of our client satisfaction scores are ascending and, in many cases, at their highest levels since we become Truist. The financial benefits of this momentum are being realized and will be increasingly visible as market conditions normalize and merger-related expense noise abates.

我們財富業務的 IRM 轉介環比增長了 17%，我們的商業社區銀行從 IRM 轉介中產生的收入額創歷史第二高，這都凸顯了我們以建議為導向和以客戶為中心的模式的力量。我們的品牌知名度在第三季度上升了近 400 個基點，而我們的同行持平或下降。我們衡量消費者是否認真考慮 Truist 的品牌考慮度為 210 個基點，在我們的市場中排名第五，該品牌僅存在 3 年。幾乎我們所有的客戶滿意度得分都在上升，並且在許多情況下，處於我們成為 Truist 以來的最高水平。隨著市場條件正常化和與合併相關的費用噪音減弱，這種勢頭的經濟效益正在實現並將越來越明顯。

To conclude, Truist is on the right path, and I'm highly optimistic about our ability to realize our significant post-integration potential, which is clearly summarized in our investment thesis on Slide 19. Strategically, we have shifted from execution to execution, transformation and growth. We're investing in digital and technology as we reduce cost, including operational losses. We're simplifying our processes and operations, and we're acting on our purpose each and every day with a singular goal of improving our client experience. We're also intensely focused on capturing the significant integrated relationship management and revenue synergy potential we have as it's squarely in the center of building better lives for our clients. These shifts in activities do not require incremental risk appetite or capital, just execution and focus, both of which lie within our sphere of control.

總而言之，Truist 走在正確的道路上，我對我們實現整合後巨大潛力的能力非常樂觀，這在我們幻燈片 19 的投資主題中有明確總結。戰略上，我們已經從執行轉向執行，轉變和成長。我們正在投資數字和技術，以降低成本，包括運營損失。我們正在簡化我們的流程和運營，我們每天都在按照我們的目標行事，其唯一目標是改善我們的客戶體驗。我們還非常專注於捕捉我們擁有的重要的綜合關係管理和收入協同潛力，因為它正處於為我們的客戶建設更美好生活的中心。這些活動的轉變不需要增加風險偏好或資本，只需要執行和專注，這兩者都在我們的控制範圍內。

Externally, while we believe the economy is generally healthy, persistent high inflation and a rapid tightening of monetary policy, combined with geopolitical tensions, have reduced visibility and increased uncertainty as we move into 2023.

從外部來看，雖然我們認為經濟總體健康，但隨著我們進入 2023 年，持續的高通脹和貨幣政策的快速收緊以及地緣政治緊張局勢降低了能見度並增加了不確定性。

Truist is nevertheless well-positioned across a broad range of economic outcomes given our advice-oriented model for clients, conservative credit culture, diverse business mix and our strong capital position relative to our risk profile and our significant performance momentum as we continue the shift from integration to execution and growth.

儘管如此，鑑於我們以客戶建議為導向的模式、保守的信貸文化、多元化的業務組合以及我們相對於風險狀況的強大資本狀況以及隨著我們繼續從整合到執行和增長。

Ankur, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

Ankur，讓我把它轉回給你進行問答。

Thanks, Bill. Jake, at this time, if you don't mind, will you please explain how our listeners can participate in the Q&A session? (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，比爾。傑克，如果你不介意的話，請你解釋一下我們的聽眾如何參與問答環節？ （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) And we will begin with Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Gerard Cassidy 和 RBC 開始。

You mentioned that you guys had positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis of 260 basis points. Can you give us some color what you're thinking about -- and when you look at adjusted positive operating leverage for the next 12 months, what do you think that could come in at?

你提到你們在調整後的 260 個基點的基礎上有積極的經營槓桿。你能告訴我們你在想什麼嗎？當你審視未來 12 個月調整後的積極經營槓桿時，你認為這會帶來什麼影響？

Yes. I think we'll -- obviously for the balance of the year, we talked about this as well, but I think we'll have positive operating leverage for the year. As we look into 2023, obviously, there are a lot of puts and takes. There's a lot of uncertainty headed into that. But positive operating leverage is going to be a core tenet of what we do. So if we look at the revenue potential in terms of the loan growth and deposit production we've had, being able to capitalize on those opportunities with those clients as we move forward, so even if the economy slows down a bit, we still have a lot of momentum in that area.

是的。我認為我們會 - 顯然在今年餘下的時間裡，我們也談到了這一點，但我認為我們今年會有積極的經營槓桿。當我們展望 2023 年時，顯然，有很多投入和投入。這其中有很多不確定性。但積極的經營槓桿將成為我們工作的核心原則。因此，如果我們從我們已經擁有的貸款增長和存款生產的角度來看收入潛力，能夠在我們前進的過程中利用與這些客戶的這些機會，那麼即使經濟放緩一點，我們仍然有那個領域的勢頭很大。

We've got great strength in our insurance business. We've got great strength in our overall capital markets business. Wealth has been building its capability. So we've got a lot of engines and tailwind from that side. And then we've got a lot of tailwind on the cost saves. So we'll complete the bulk of the merger cost saves at the end of this year. But heading into next year is really where we get to leverage all those. If you think about the concept of you put 2 things together, now you make those 2 things more efficient. So those opportunities for digitization and automation, we're consolidating our card platform, all the things that will continue on in terms of cost saves. So I'm just -- I am not giving you specific guidance on operating leverage for the year other than to say that will be a core tenet and component of how we plan for the future.

我們的保險業務實力雄厚。我們在整體資本市場業務方面擁有強大的實力。財富一直在構建它的能力。所以我們從那邊得到了很多引擎和順風。然後我們在節省成本方面有很多順風。因此，我們將在今年年底完成大部分合併成本節省。但進入明年才是我們真正可以利用所有這些的地方。如果您考慮將兩件事放在一起的概念，那麼現在您可以使這兩件事更有效率。因此，那些數字化和自動化的機會，我們正在整合我們的卡平台，所有這些都將在成本節約方面繼續進行。所以我只是——我不會給你關於今年經營槓桿的具體指導，只是說這將是我們未來計劃的核心原則和組成部分。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, you pointed out that the deposit beta was 21% on a cumulative basis and then 14% without the brokered CDs. And that was below your models. Two things, can you tell us what your model would have suggested the deposit beta would have been? And then second, using the forward curve, where do you think you end up with a final cumulative deposit beta?

很好。然後作為後續問題，您指出存款貝塔累計為 21%，然後在沒有經紀 CD 的情況下為 14%。那低於你的模型。兩件事，你能告訴我們你的模型會建議存款 beta 是什麼嗎？其次，使用遠期曲線，您認為最終累積存款貝塔值在哪裡？

This is Mike. I'm happy to take that one. So you're right, we've been very pleased by the performance of the deposit portfolio so far at 21%. I think we said earlier this year, we expected betas to be closer to 30% as we get to the second half of the year. We still expect that to be the case by year-end. In terms of a terminal beta, very, very hard to tell. We've seen probably some lag given the rate at which rates have increased. And so we do expect there to be some catch-up. But whether or not it will be to the tune of the previous cycle in the mid-30s or beyond, we'll observe that together.

這是邁克。我很高興接受那個。所以你是對的，我們對迄今為止 21% 的存款組合表現感到非常滿意。我想我們今年早些時候說過，我們預計到今年下半年貝塔係數將接近 30%。我們仍然預計到年底會出現這種情況。就終端測試版而言，很難說。考慮到利率上升的速度，我們可能已經看到了一些滯後。因此，我們確實希望會有一些赶超。但無論它是否會在 30 年代中期或以後與上一個週期保持一致，我們將一起觀察。

We'll move to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起搬到 Ken Usdin。

Just want to ask a question on funding and deposits. You guys are showing fairly good resiliency as is the industry. Just give a little more context of what you're expecting to see in terms of mix shift and also your thoughts. It looked like you did add a bunch of wholesale borrowings relative to your incremental cost of funding through deposits. So just think -- help us think about how you're thinking about liability structure and deposit growth.

只想問一個關於資金和存款的問題。你們和整個行業都表現出了相當好的彈性。只需提供更多背景信息，說明您期望在混音轉換和您的想法方面看到的內容。看起來你確實增加了一堆批發借款，相對於你通過存款籌集資金的增量成本。所以想想——幫助我們想想你是如何考慮負債結構和存款增長的。

Ken, it's Mike, I'll start here as well. So again, we have been very pleased from the deposit perspective with only a sequential decrease of 1%. And so very pleased by how the balances are hanging in there. We are expecting, I think, over the near term, to continue to have some pressure on deposits as well as some pressure on mix. We did see some shift from DDA into interest-bearing. That's been a moderate shift so far, and we're still well above levels that we experienced pre-COVID. But we are beginning to see that shift take place.

肯，我是邁克，我也將從這裡開始。因此，從存款的角度來看，我們再次感到非常高興，環比僅下降了 1%。對天平如何掛在那裡感到非常高興。我認為，我們預計在短期內，存款將繼續面臨一些壓力，混合也將面臨一些壓力。我們確實看到了從 DDA 到生息的一些轉變。到目前為止，這是一個溫和的轉變，我們仍遠高於 COVID 之前的水平。但我們開始看到這種轉變正在發生。

In terms of short-term borrowings, you're right, we are accessing brokered markets. We are accessing short-term markets and do expect that to continue over the intermediate term. But don't expect that to shift significantly. As we think about funding, loan growth for one has been very, very high. So far year-to-date, we do expect loan growth to moderate somewhat, which should alleviate some of that gap. But between the deposit balance levels, between leveraging some of the securities portfolio running off to the tune of $10 billion to $15 billion per year, accessing some of the wholesale markets which is a pretty wide array of tools and even thinking about the capital markets, we feel really good about our funding capability.

就短期借款而言，你是對的，我們正在進入經紀市場。我們正在進入短期市場，並確實希望這種情況會在中期繼續。但不要指望這種情況會發生重大轉變。當我們考慮融資時，一個人的貸款增長非常非常高。今年迄今為止，我們確實預計貸款增長會有所放緩，這應該會緩解部分差距。但在存款餘額水平之間，在利用一些每年流失 100 億至 150 億美元的證券投資組合，進入一些相當廣泛的工具的批發市場，甚至考慮資本市場，我們對自己的籌資能力感到非常滿意。

And Ken, maybe just to add to that in terms of the first part of the question, too, is just the strength of our deposit franchise. It's pretty granular, 42% under $250,000. We've got really good market share. But what we're seeing, and I talked about this in my prepared comments, our production's really strong. Truist One has been really successful. Our teammates have really responded, clients and -- both new clients and existing clients have really responded, investments in treasury and payments. So we're leaning into this in terms of our own capabilities from the deposit production side. And then for the fourth quarter, remember, the third quarter has got some seasonality in things like public funds, for example, where that's a strong area for us. So I think we'll be sort of stable in the fourth quarter. And then Mike talked, I think, eloquently about the funding side.

肯，也許只是在問題的第一部分補充一點，這也只是我們存款特許經營權的優勢。它非常精細，42% 低於 250,000 美元。我們的市場份額非常好。但我們所看到的，我在準備好的評論中談到了這一點，我們的產品非常強大。 Truist One 真的很成功。我們的隊友真的做出了回應，客戶和 - 新客戶和現有客戶都做出了真正的回應，對資金和支付的投資。因此，我們從存款生產方面根據我們自己的能力來解決這個問題。然後對於第四季度，請記住，第三季度在公共基金等方面有一些季節性，例如，這對我們來說是一個強大的領域。所以我認為我們會在第四季度保持穩定。然後我認為邁克雄辯地談到了資金方面。

And just one quick follow-up, just can you just give us a sense of where you're reinvesting the cash flows that are going back into the securities portfolio versus what's rolling off?

只是一個快速的跟進，你能否讓我們了解一下你將返回證券投資組合的現金流重新投資到什麼地方？

Yes. I mean the cash flow that's coming off is being invested in the loan portfolio. There's de minimis investing to support our CRA efforts, but the bulk of the cash flow is being invested in loans.

是的。我的意思是即將流出的現金流投資於貸款組合。有微量投資來支持我們的 CRA 工作，但大部分現金流都投資於貸款。

The great news is we have something to deploy it towards, which is perfect.

好消息是我們有東西可以部署它，這是完美的。

Right.

正確的。

Moving on to Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

轉到高盛的瑞安納什。

Bill, you saw -- I saw a nice sequential growth and it's likely to continue to grow into 4Q given your outlook plus the asset balance -- as a sense of balance sheet. So I guess, based on your comments on -- to Gerard of betas in the mid-30s or maybe a little bit higher, do you think you can continue to grow NII as a -- on a sequential basis as we look ahead over the next few quarters, adjusted for seasonal impacts? And maybe just talk about some of the puts and takes involved in that.

比爾，你看到了——我看到了一個很好的連續增長，而且考慮到你的前景和資產餘額，它可能會繼續增長到第四季度——作為一種資產負債表的感覺。所以我想，根據你對 30 年代中期或更高一點的 Beta 的 Gerard 的評論，你認為你可以繼續增長 NII 作為 - 在我們展望未來的連續基礎上未來幾個季度，針對季節性影響進行調整？也許只是談論其中涉及的一些看跌期權和看跌期權。

Michael, I'll let you start, and I'll talk about that as well.

邁克爾，我會讓你開始，我也會談談這個。

Yes. You're right. I mean look, we've got a really good trajectory going into Q4 with the NIM, as we mentioned in our guide, expected to increase 15 or so basis points. Look, as long as rates continue to increase, we expect to continue to see some NIM expansion. At some point, I think we all expect to achieve this terminal policy rate and whether it's higher longer or begins to decline, we'll see.

是的。你是對的。我的意思是，正如我們在指南中提到的那樣，NIM 進入第四季度的軌跡非常好，預計將增加 15 個基點左右。看，只要利率繼續上漲，我們預計 NIM 會繼續擴張。在某個時候，我認為我們都希望達到這個最終政策利率，它是更高還是開始下降，我們拭目以待。

From an NII perspective, we'll obviously benefit from that NIM expansion over that period. And then I think as NIMs begin to feel some pressure, we feel good again today. We've got really nice earning asset growth. We expect that to moderate, but should offset any impact over the intermediate term of the decline in NIM. We see '23 from a rates perspective as a relatively stable period.

從 NII 的角度來看，我們顯然會從那段時間的 NIM 擴張中受益。然後我認為隨著 NIM 開始感受到一些壓力，我們今天再次感覺良好。我們的盈利資產增長非常好。我們預計這種情況會緩和，但應該會抵消淨息差下降對中期的任何影響。從利率的角度來看，我們認為 23 年是一個相對穩定的時期。

To Mike's point, a lot of it also depend on loan growth and what we see going into next year, really positive momentum through this quarter, which I think will continue into the fourth quarter. It all for -- it's a little murkier as we head into next year, but I like the momentum and the production and the pipelines and the relevance and the competitiveness of our franchise right now from that standpoint.

邁克認為，這在很大程度上還取決於貸款增長以及我們對明年的展望，本季度真正的積極勢頭，我認為這將持續到第四季度。這一切都是為了 - 當我們進入明年時它有點模糊，但從這個角度來看，我喜歡我們特許經營的勢頭、生產和管道以及相關性和競爭力。

Bill, maybe a bigger picture question for me. So I think at a recent conference, you highlighted that you expected expenses to grow in '23, which makes sense given you've done a handful of deals as pressure from inflation. However, when we think back on the drivers of the merger, we were talking about best-in-class growth, improving returns. And I know we've now made the shift to offense. But when I speak to investors, I get the sense I feel we're not quite there yet. So while I know you're not giving '23 guidance, what do we need to see for this to begin to come through, whether it's operating leverage or better-than-peer expense growth? And just how are you measuring the success of all these efforts?

比爾，也許對我來說是一個更大的問題。所以我認為在最近的一次會議上，你強調你預計 23 年的支出會增長，這是有道理的，因為你已經完成了一些交易作為通貨膨脹的壓力。然而，當我們回想合併的驅動因素時，我們談論的是一流的增長，提高回報。我知道我們現在已經轉向進攻。但當我與投資者交談時，我覺得我們還沒有完全做到這一點。因此，雖然我知道您沒有給出 23 年的指導，但我們需要看到什麼才能開始實現，無論是運營槓桿還是優於同行的費用增長？您如何衡量所有這些努力的成功與否？

Yes. I think overall, I mean, we've talked about this. It's the measurement of can we grow revenue long term over time and PPNR faster and relative to our market opportunities. And I think that opportunity sits squarely in front of us. I think if I look at the things that contribute to that in the areas of production, like loan production, AUM production, deposit production, I'd argue, actually, we're sort of getting to sort of a peak kind of performance in those areas. As it relates to the expense side, and this stuff just doesn't go quarter-to-quarter. You just -- they're going to have different levels of investment. We've made a conscious decision. And while -- I'll acknowledge, I'm cranky on the operating losses side. So operational losses, I think we've got some opportunity there. I see some improvements coming, but that has been longer and taken longer than I had anticipated. But we're consciously investing in some areas. So we're consciously investing in investment banking and wealth and insurance.

是的。我認為總的來說，我的意思是，我們已經討論過這個問題。這是衡量我們能否隨著時間的推移長期增加收入和 PPNR 更快並且相對於我們的市場機會。我認為這個機會就在我們面前。我認為，如果我看看在生產領域對此做出貢獻的因素，比如貸款生產、AUM 生產、存款生產，我會說，實際上，我們正在某種程度上達到某種高峰表現那些地區。因為它與費用方面有關，而且這些東西並不是按季度計算的。你只是 - 他們將有不同程度的投資。我們做出了有意識的決定。雖然 - 我會承認，我在運營損失方面胡思亂想。所以運營損失，我認為我們在那裡有一些機會。我看到一些改進即將到來，但這比我預期的時間更長，花費的時間也更長。但我們正在有意識地投資於某些領域。所以我們有意識地投資於投資銀行、財富和保險。

And you know us well. I mean we've got a good track record here. When times are a little bumpy and the opportunity is there, we've taken advantage of it, and that's proven to be really, really smart investments on our standpoint. So we're sort of unabashed about that, and that has a quarter-to-quarter implication to it. And I just have to absorb it and take it because I'm confident that we're doing the things that will create better opportunity for us and allow us to gain share over time. So long answer to a short direct question, I think we can grow disproportionately over time. It just won't look like that quarter-to-quarter. And I think look at the production, look at the capabilities that we're creating today, and I'm confident in manifesting those towards the future.

你很了解我們。我的意思是我們在這裡有良好的記錄。當時間有點坎坷而機會就在那裡時，我們已經利用了它，事實證明，從我們的角度來看，這是非常非常明智的投資。所以我們對此毫不掩飾，這對它有一個季度到一個季度的影響。而且我只需要吸收它並接受它，因為我相信我們正在做的事情將為我們創造更好的機會並讓我們隨著時間的推移獲得份額。對一個簡短的直接問題的如此長的回答，我認為我們可以隨著時間的推移不成比例地增長。它只是看起來不像那個季度。我想看看生產，看看我們今天正在創造的能力，我有信心在未來展現這些能力。

And Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley has the next question.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck 有下一個問題。

It's Betsy. I wanted to just dig into a couple of things. One is on loan growth. It's been really strong. And I heard the comments around how you're funding it and how you're thinking about driving that from here. I wanted to get a little bit of an understanding on how you're thinking about the quality of the book relative to its ability to absorb this interest rate hike. So obviously, we've had about 300 basis points so far. We're going to get at least another 150-plus over the next quarter or so. And how are you assessing your borrower's ability to pay you back? Are we all too worried about credit risk? I know you gave the guide for the full year NCOs, which I'm wondering why not having -- have brought that down given the performance you've had to date. So just a few questions on credit from that perspective.

是貝茜。我只想深入研究幾件事。一是貸款增長。它真的很強大。我聽到了關於你如何資助它以及你如何考慮從這裡推動它的評論。我想稍微了解一下您如何看待這本書的質量及其吸收此次加息的能力。很明顯，到目前為止我們已經有大約 300 個基點。我們將在下個季度左右至少再獲得 150 多個。您如何評估借款人的還款能力？我們都太擔心信用風險了嗎？我知道你提供了全年 NCO 的指南，我想知道為什麼沒有 - 鑑於你迄今為止的表現，已經降低了它。所以從這個角度來看，只有幾個關於信用的問題。

Yes, I'll start, Betsy. If I can also turn it over to Clarke, he's itching to get in and talk about credit quality and the quality of the portfolio and what we put on the books. We've not diminished our commitment to credit quality. We're taking our clients through the appropriate stress testing process. I mean we're underwriting at new rates and new environments. So I think our production just reflects our just competitiveness. I mean our ability to win more size and relevance with our clients. And then you see that reflected right now in our reserve, particularly on the wholesale side. The quality actually is -- might argue might be improving. So Clarke, why don't you embellish that, if you would?

是的，我要開始了，貝琪。如果我也能把它轉交給克拉克，他很想參與進來談論信用質量和投資組合的質量以及我們在賬簿上的內容。我們沒有減少對信貸質量的承諾。我們正在讓我們的客戶通過適當的壓力測試過程。我的意思是我們正在以新的利率和新的環境承保。所以我覺得我們的生產恰恰體現了我們正當的競爭力。我的意思是我們有能力贏得更大的規模和與客戶的相關性。然後你看到這反映在我們的儲備中，特別是在批發方面。質量實際上是 - 可能會爭辯說可能正在改善。所以克拉克，如果你願意的話，你為什麼不美化一下呢？

Yes. Thanks, Bill, and I agree with you. We are very careful in our underwriting right now. So we're looking obviously at rate shock and the ability to absorb that. We're looking at other things like pricing power and their margins, given supply and input costs and inflation, looking at clients' investment decisions, how they're deploying capital, their liquidity, their balance sheet and just overall strength. So we feel really good about the core underwriting. In fact, I would tell you for the quarter, about 95% of our C&I production was investment grade or near investment-grade credit. So really high quality there. And as far as our NCO guidance for the full year, we feel really good about where we are. But remember, we normalize as we go into the fourth quarter from a consumer standpoint and we have the seasonal impact. So that's really truly the consumer side that may increase losses on.

是的。謝謝，比爾，我同意你的看法。我們現在在承銷方面非常謹慎。因此，我們顯然正在關注利率衝擊和吸收衝擊的能力。我們正在考慮其他因素，例如定價能力和利潤率，考慮到供應和投入成本以及通貨膨脹，研究客戶的投資決策，他們如何部署資本，他們的流動性，他們的資產負債表以及整體實力。所以我們對核心承銷感覺非常好。事實上，我會告訴你本季度，我們大約 95% 的 C&I 產品是投資級或接近投資級的信貸。那裡的質量真的很高。就我們全年的 NCO 指導而言，我們對自己的處境感到非常滿意。但請記住，從消費者的角度來看，我們在進入第四季度時正常化，我們會受到季節性影響。所以這真的是消費者方面可能會增加損失。

Okay. Got it. And then just digging in a little bit on the commercial side on this theme. Can you remind us how you are thinking about your Shared National Credit exposure, what that is, leverage lending? I know legacy SunTrust had a bigger skew in their business model to that. But with the combined organization, it's been reduced a bit as a percentage of total. So just give us a sense as to how big those books are today, how they're trending and how much capacity you have to lean in with the bigger balance sheet you've got now.

好的。知道了。然後在這個主題的商業方面稍微挖掘一下。您能否提醒我們您如何看待您的共享國家信用敞口，即槓桿貸款？我知道傳統的 SunTrust 在他們的商業模式中有更大的偏差。但在合併後的組織中，它佔總數的百分比有所減少。因此，讓我們了解一下這些賬簿今天有多大，它們的趨勢如何，以及您現在擁有更大的資產負債表需要依靠多少能力。

Yes. Clarke, you want to take that?

是的。克拉克，你要拿那個嗎？

Yes. Maybe I'll start it, Bill. First, from an SNC standpoint, we're in really good shape. We just went through the exam and had great results. I feel very good about that. We have about $59 billion in outstandings in our SNC book. So it's about 19% of our balances, and that's been fairly steady or so. So it's a very diversified book. We feel really good about that.

是的。也許我會開始，比爾。首先，從 SNC 的角度來看，我們的狀態非常好。我們剛剛通過考試並取得了很好的成績。我對此感覺很好。我們的 SNC 帳簿中有大約 590 億美元的未償還款項。所以它大約占我們餘額的 19%，而且一直相當穩定。所以這是一本非常多元化的書。我們對此感覺非常好。

As far as our leveraged finance book, just remember, that's about 7% of our total book. However, over half of that is 55% investment-grade clients. So really 3% would be more in the sponsored or noninvestment grade side. That book's performing extremely well today. So minimal NPLs, we've had about 9 basis points of losses and are criticized, are in good shape. So while there's been disruption and challenges in the market, our overall performance has been very, very good.

至於我們的槓桿金融賬簿，請記住，這大約占我們總賬簿的 7%。然而，其中超過一半是 55% 的投資級客戶。因此，在讚助或非投資級別方面，3% 會更多。那本書今天的表現非常好。所以最小的不良貸款，我們有大約 9 個基點的損失並受到批評，狀況良好。因此，儘管市場上存在干擾和挑戰，但我們的整體表現非常非常好。

I think you characterized it right that as part of the benefits of the merger is the diversification of that portfolio by definition of the denominator. So we haven't grown it in proportion to the increase in the size of our business. And it's well-diversified. Leveraged portfolio is well diversified. Exposures are not significant to any one person. And it's about 50% sponsors and about 50% on us. So this is a business that supports our client base, and it's categorized as leveraged, but it's really supporting the growth in our client base and consistent with our strategy of helping our clients with their business life cycles. I mean I think -- so it's a little bit different and a little more focused on an on-us component.

我認為您的描述是正確的，合併的好處之一是根據分母的定義使該投資組合多樣化。因此，我們的增長並未與我們業務規模的增長成比例。而且它非常多樣化。槓桿投資組合非常多元化。暴露對任何人來說都不重要。大約有 50% 的讚助商和大約 50% 的讚助商。因此，這是一項支持我們客戶群的業務，它被歸類為槓桿業務，但它確實支持我們客戶群的增長，並且符合我們幫助客戶完成業務生命週期的戰略。我的意思是我認為 - 所以它有點不同，更專注於我們的組件。

Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo will have our next question.

富國銀行的 Mike Mayo 將提出我們的下一個問題。

I'll continue my analogy with your franchise as a Corvette. I mean you're clearly in the country's sweet spot for population growth. I mean I keep meeting more of investing clients that have moved to New York -- to Florida permanently, entire firms. And so you're certainly in the sweet spot. You did mention momentum and certainly NII and loan growth and how you're going from defense to offense. So I get it. But then I hear, Bill, your target for positive operating leverage of over 0%. It just seems like with a target like that, you're aiming for the Charlotte Motor Speedway instead of Indianapolis 500, right? It seems like -- and this is at a time when your peers are showing much greater positive operating leverage and they don't have this unique in-market merger with these incredible synergies that are possible.

我將繼續與您作為 Corvette 的專營權進行類比。我的意思是你顯然處於該國人口增長的最佳位置。我的意思是我不斷會見更多已經搬到紐約的投資客戶——永久地搬到佛羅里達，整個公司。所以你肯定處於最佳狀態。你確實提到了勢頭，當然還有 NII 和貸款增長，以及你如何從防守轉向進攻。所以我明白了。但後來我聽說，比爾，你的目標是超過 0% 的積極經營槓桿。看起來像這樣的目標，你的目標是夏洛特賽車場而不是印第安納波利斯 500，對吧？看起來——這是在你的同行表現出更大的積極運營槓桿的時候，他們沒有這種獨特的市場合併和這些可能的令人難以置信的協同效應。

So I know you're not giving too much guidance for next year right now, but can you just talk about whatever headwinds may be going away? You talk about the operational losses. It seems like you're doing a lot for your customers. You're making them whole more than others perhaps. You're doing a lot for your employees, you're raising what they get paid. But I'm just thinking about the shareholders here. And so what are some of the headwinds that may or may not go away? And what are some of the tailwinds that you think we'll see more of?

所以我知道你現在沒有為明年提供太多指導，但你能談談可能會消失的逆風嗎？您談論的是運營損失。看起來你為你的客戶做了很多。也許你讓他們比其他人更完整。你為你的員工做了很多，你提高了他們得到的報酬。但我只是在考慮這裡的股東。那麼，有哪些不利因素可能會消失，也可能不會消失？您認為我們會看到更多的順風因素是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. And we'll continue to keep the Corvette network going, I guess. But if we define speed as related to how are you doing against your markets, I look at the loan deposit AUM, the production side. And I'd say we're actually at a really good high rate of speed. And I'd say we're at our speed that reflects the opportunity that sits in our market.

是的。謝謝，邁克。我猜，我們將繼續保持 Corvette 網絡的運行。但是，如果我們將速度定義為與你如何應對你的市場有關，我會看看生產方面的貸款存款 AUM。而且我會說我們實際上處於非常好的高速狀態。我想說我們的速度反映了我們市場中的機會。

So if we define it that way, if we define the opportunity, which I 100% agree with is to have improved positive operating leverage over time and increased revenue and PPNR growth, we also have to invest to make that happen. So we like you to see the same things that you're seeing in our markets, and we've got to make sure that we invest in those. And again, I wish it sort of balanced out quarter-to-quarter. It just doesn't.

因此，如果我們這樣定義它，如果我們定義機會，我 100% 同意隨著時間的推移提高積極的經營槓桿，增加收入和 PPNR 增長，我們也必須投資以實現這一目標。因此，我們希望您看到與您在我們的市場上看到的相同的東西，我們必須確保我們對這些進行投資。再一次，我希望它能按季度平衡。它只是沒有。

So the opportunities for us to invest right now, and I think gain share long term in areas I mentioned before, like investment banking, like insurance and like wealth, we're just going to do that. And I think that's going to have a good long-term impact for us. You've seen this before, you've seen this movie and you know how well it ends for us. So we know how to do this. So I'm very confident on that side.

所以我們現在投資的機會，我認為在我之前提到的領域獲得長期份額，比如投資銀行，保險和財富，我們將這樣做。我認為這將對我們產生良好的長期影響。你以前看過這個，你看過這部電影，你知道它對我們來說有多好。所以我們知道如何做到這一點。所以我在這方面非常有信心。

And then the part about the operational losses and the commitments that we made to our clients, those are also good long-term decisions. I mean look, we were in the middle of a merger. We gave the benefit of the doubt to a client. Whenever there was a benefit of a doubt, I think long term, that's going to create sustainable long-term relationships. And the same thing with teammates. Increasing minimum wage is fantastic for shareholders. I cited some of the stats that we're seeing already an improved turnover and improved vacancy rates. I didn't mention the care center, we're seeing that as well. So long term, that's going to have a tremendous benefit for our shareholders as well as our teammates.

然後是關於運營損失和我們對客戶做出的承諾的部分，這些也是很好的長期決策。我的意思是看，我們正處於合併之中。我們給了客戶懷疑的好處。每當有懷疑的好處時，我認為從長遠來看，這將建立可持續的長期關係。和隊友也一樣。提高最低工資對股東來說太棒了。我引用了一些我們已經看到營業額和空缺率有所改善的統計數據。我沒有提到護理中心，我們也看到了。從長遠來看，這將為我們的股東和我們的隊友帶來巨大的利益。

So I'm confident. I think we're materializing the things that we want to have. It's just not coming in quarter-to-quarter as I'd like. It's not as matched as I'd like. There are some pesky things that I think will come down, and I'm already seeing that at the end of the quarter and the first of this quarter in terms of operational losses. So we can have a cleaner, more focused, easier to understand and easier to have the production and those things result in the kind of PPNR growth that I think we're able to do long term.

所以我有信心。我認為我們正在實現我們想要擁有的東西。它只是沒有像我希望的那樣按季度出現。它不像我想要的那樣匹配。我認為有一些令人討厭的事情會下降，而且我已經在本季度末和本季度第一季度的運營損失方面看到了這一點。因此，我們可以有一個更清晰、更專注、更容易理解和更容易的生產，這些事情會導致我認為我們能夠長期實現的 PPNR 增長。

So a follow-up, even if I can see the speed part, I guess, the cost of gas is quite high. And maybe, Mike, from your perspective, coming into the CFO spot, things that you might be able to do to control the expenses, as Bill was alluding to.

所以後續，即使我能看到速度部分，我想，gas 的成本還是相當高的。也許，邁克，從你的角度來看，進入首席財務官的位置，你可能會做一些事情來控制開支，正如比爾所暗示的那樣。

Yes. Mike, happy to react to that. I mean I think, first and foremost, still, at this point, absorbing and coming in and meeting the team, getting a sense for where we are. Look, Bill made some great points. I don't come to the table with some predefined view or silver bullet as it relates to these things. The headwinds that Bill talked about, minimum wage, inflation, some of the investments that we're prioritizing, they're important. But then again, we have some great tailwinds as well, whether it be realizing the benefits of the savings. I think there's some benefit from an automation perspective, some work we're doing that's in more nascent phase. And then just overall productivity. I mean look, if we -- I think we've got a great track record in terms of being able to manage expense, if and when that becomes a more important priority based on market conditions. But no, I think Bill said it well, Mike.

是的。邁克，很高興對此做出反應。我的意思是，我認為，在這一點上，首先也是最重要的是，吸收並進入並與團隊會面，了解我們所處的位置。看，比爾提出了一些很棒的觀點。我不會帶著一些預定義的視圖或靈丹妙藥來參加會議，因為它與這些事情有關。比爾談到的逆風，最低工資，通貨膨脹，我們正在優先考慮的一些投資，它們很重要。但話又說回來，我們也有一些巨大的順風，無論是實現儲蓄的好處。我認為從自動化的角度來看有一些好處，我們正在做的一些工作還處於初級階段。然後就是整體生產力。我的意思是看，如果我們 - 我認為我們在能夠管理費用方面擁有良好的記錄，如果以及何時根據市場條件成為更重要的優先事項。但是不，我認為比爾說得很好，邁克。

Now we'll move to our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

現在我們將轉到美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的下一個問題。

I guess one follow-up first for Clarke on the reserves. And Clarke, apologies if I missed it, but can you remind us what's the base case of the weighted unemployment rate that's baked into your reserving at the end of the quarter? And I guess, as we think about sort of what the next 12 months could look like, what are the other 1 or 2 big inputs that could change the reserving outlook other than unemployment?

我想首先要對克拉克進行後續跟進。克拉克，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，但你能否提醒我們，在本季度末計入你的準備金中的加權失業率的基本情況是什麼？我想，當我們考慮未來 12 個月會是什麼樣子時，除了失業之外，還有哪些其他 1 或 2 個大投入可能會改變儲備前景？

That's a great question. In our base case, which we wait at 40%, we have unemployment going up to 4%. And then going higher into the mid-4s as we go into '23 and beyond. So clearly, a little more pessimistic as we ran the reserves this quarter. I would say for us, other big drivers would be a housing HPI would be another input there in our models, and you've already mentioned GDP. So from our standpoint, the big driver for us would be the scenario weighting and the scenario outlook would have the biggest impact on our reserves, obviously, versus other things like our mix of production and our overall portfolio performance. But right now, I think the scenario outlook would be the biggest driver.

這是一個很好的問題。在我們等待 40% 的基本情況下，我們的失業率將上升到 4%。然後隨著我們進入 23 世紀及以後，進入更高的 4 年代中期。很明顯，我們在本季度運行儲備時更加悲觀。我想對我們說，其他主要驅動因素是住房 HPI 將是我們模型中的另一個輸入，你已經提到了 GDP。因此，從我們的角度來看，對我們來說最大的驅動因素是情景權重，而情景前景對我們的儲備影響最大，顯然，與我們的生產組合和整體投資組合表現等其他因素相比。但現在，我認為情景前景將是最大的驅動力。

Got it. And I guess just one; follow-up Bill, for you. As we look at the next stage, I mean, obviously, BB&T, SunTrust history of acquisitions, A lot of your peers might be struggling in terms of deposit, deposit pricing, given what the Fed might be doing. Talk to us in terms of as we look forward to the next year or 2, appetite for bank M&A extending the franchise and how you think about that.

知道了。我想只有一個；跟進比爾，給你。當我們展望下一階段時，我的意思是，很明顯，BB&T、SunTrust 的收購歷史，考慮到美聯儲可能採取的行動，許多同行可能在存款、存款定價方面苦苦掙扎。就我們對未來一兩年的期待、對銀行併購擴大特許經營權的興趣以及您對此的看法與我們交談。

Yes. I mean right now, we have the best franchise to invest in, and it's called Truist. And that's where our focus is and that's where our opportunity is. And ability to expand and create more capacity within our existing markets is really our primary focus right now.

是的。我的意思是現在，我們擁有最好的投資特許經營權，它被稱為 Truist。這就是我們的重點所在，也是我們的機會所在。在現有市場中擴展和創造更多容量的能力確實是我們目前的主要關注點。

We'll move on to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將繼續採訪德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you guys talk about the openness to maybe some restructuring of the securities portfolio? I mean obviously, rates have gone up a lot and the yields on your current book are a lot lower. So it would cost a lot to restructure a big part of it, but there might be some opportunities here and there as you think about the strong capital generation and what to use the capital for?

你們能談談對證券投資組合進行一些重組的開放態度嗎？我的意思是，很明顯，利率上升了很多，而您當前書籍的收益率卻低了很多。所以重組其中的很大一部分會花費很多，但是當你考慮強大的資本產生以及資本的用途時，這里和那裡可能會有一些機會？

Matt, it's Mike. Happy to react to that. As of this moment, there are no plans to restructure the securities portfolio. I think I mentioned that we do view the portfolio as a tool for funding loan growth. As that continues, it's creating cash flow of approximately $10 million to $15 million per year.

馬特，是邁克。很高興對此做出反應。截至目前，尚無重組證券投資組合的計劃。我想我提到過我們確實將投資組合視為為貸款增長提供資金的工具。隨著這種情況的繼續，它每年創造大約 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的現金流。

Yes. And Matt, I mean, today, we're redeploying it into the growth in our business, and you acknowledge that would be very expensive. And what we try to do is look at that securities portfolio over time. And so we're going to take that cash flow. And right now, we've got great opportunities to reinvest it and not take a capital hit for the securities portfolio. I'd rather use that capital to invest in our business.

是的。而馬特，我的意思是，今天，我們將其重新部署到我們業務的增長中，你承認這將非常昂貴。我們試圖做的是隨著時間的推移觀察該證券投資組合。因此，我們將採用該現金流量。而現在，我們有很好的機會對其進行再投資，而不會對證券投資組合造成資本衝擊。我寧願用這筆資金投資我們的業務。

Okay. And then just separately, you had mentioned earlier some mix shift out of auto and mortgage. Can you frame how much you expect that to be over time? And then maybe you mentioned it, but just where is the mix shift going if it's out of mortgage and auto? What are you leaning into?

好的。然後單獨地，你之前提到過汽車和抵押貸款的一些混合轉移。你能描述一下你期望隨著時間的推移會有多少嗎？然後也許你提到了它，但如果它沒有抵押貸款和汽車，那麼混合轉變將走向何方？你靠什麼？

Yes. Matt, it's just basically sort of an overall return focus and make sure that we're maximizing our capital. As we see some of the returns in the mortgage business and the auto business being a little more stretched, we want to make sure we're serving our clients and we're doing a great job in doing that. But by the same token, we're seeing the other opportunities in our commercial portfolio and our consumer portfolio. So we just want to get the right balance and a return focus versus we've never been sort of the growth for growth's sake. We want to be return-oriented. We want to maximize the return on the capital that we're investing in the portfolio.

是的。馬特，這基本上只是一種整體回報重點，並確保我們最大化我們的資本。當我們看到抵押貸款業務和汽車業務的一些回報有點緊張時，我們希望確保我們在為客戶服務，並且我們在這方面做得很好。但出於同樣的原因，我們在我們的商業組合和消費者組合中看到了其他機會。因此，我們只想獲得正確的平衡和回報重點，而不是我們從來沒有為了增長而增長。我們希望以回報為導向。我們希望最大化我們投資於投資組合的資本回報。

Jake, we've got time for one more question.

傑克，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And that final question will come from Erika Najarian with UBS.

最後一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

I just -- I had one follow-up question, Bill. You got asked this several times, but I just wanted to make sure your shareholders understood what you were saying. You've been asked a lot about delivering operating leverage. At the same time, dislocation creates opportunity. And this is also a sort of once-in-a-cycle help from rates, right, in terms of operating leverage getting help -- helping the denominator? So is the message here really that you are going to always try to deliver positive operating leverage as a way of Truist life, but you're seeing opportunities to invest today? And as we think about the tougher part of the cycle, whether we fall into a recession next year and we don't have rate hikes helping, your investments today are going to help Truist deliver above-average PPNR over a longer period of time other than just now when you're getting a lot of help from rates?

我只是 - 我有一個後續問題，比爾。你被問過好幾次了，但我只是想確保你的股東明白你在說什麼。你被問到很多關於提供經營槓桿的問題。同時，錯位創造機會。這也是利率的一種週期性幫助，對吧，就運營槓桿獲得幫助而言——幫助分母？那麼這裡的信息真的是您將始終嘗試提供積極的經營槓桿作為 Truist 生活方式的一種方式，但您今天看到了投資機會嗎？當我們考慮週期中較為艱難的部分時，我們是否會在明年陷入衰退並且我們沒有加息幫助，您今天的投資將幫助 Truist 在更長的時間內提供高於平均水平的 PPNR 其他比現在你從利率中得到很多幫助的時候還多？

I think that's really well stated, and I wish I had stated it as well as your question. So no, I think that's exactly right. And as I mentioned, I mean, positive operating leverage will be a hallmark of what we do. So that is -- that's core and focus of what we do. We just can't be wed to that quarter-to-quarter when we see an opportunity. So we're going to have positive operating leverage this year. It will be a little less than we'd hoped for 6 months ago, but we're investing that I think is going to create not only better operating leverage, but more importantly, strong PPNR growth for the future. And we just have to make sure that we're, for the benefit of our shareholders, thinking long term and thinking about this incredible opportunity that sits in front of us and maximizing our ability to capitalize on it. So I think you stated it actually quite well.

我認為這說得非常好，我希望我已經把它和你的問題一起說出來了。所以不，我認為這是完全正確的。正如我所提到的，我的意思是，積極的經營槓桿將成為我們所做工作的標誌。這就是 - 這是我們所做工作的核心和重點。當我們看到機會時，我們不能一成不變。因此，我們今年將擁有積極的經營槓桿。這將比我們 6 個月前希望的要少一些，但我們正在投資，我認為這不僅會創造更好的運營槓桿，更重要的是，未來 PPNR 的強勁增長。我們只需要確保，為了我們股東的利益，我們從長遠考慮，考慮擺在我們面前的這個令人難以置信的機會，並最大限度地利用它。所以我認為你實際上說得很好。

Got it. And my last question is for Clarke. Thank you so much for sharing that data on your ACL. And just in terms of how CECL works, if we do hit a 4% unemployment rate, which is your base case, does that mean that you have to then wait worse scenarios in that 4%? In other words, do you say, okay, we hit 4%, that's our base case. We don't have to build reserves further? Or does the model say, oh, we're at 4%, it could get worse, so we now need to build for something worse than 4%?

知道了。我的最後一個問題是給克拉克的。非常感謝您在 ACL 上分享這些數據。就 CECL 的運作方式而言，如果我們確實達到了 4% 的失業率，這是你的基本情況，這是否意味著你必須等待那 4% 的更糟糕的情況？換句話說，你說，好吧，我們達到了 4%，這是我們的基本情況。我們不必進一步建立儲備？或者模型是否說，哦，我們處於 4%，它可能會變得更糟，所以我們現在需要構建低於 4% 的東西？

Great question, Erika. I would say keep in mind that we run multiple scenarios. So we have our base case, which I described, but we also run a much more severe set of downside scenarios. And as we look forward, those scenarios get worse as well as even if the baseline deteriorates some additionally. So we weigh all of that and we look at it each quarter. And so even if the baseline is at one place, the downside scenarios may be more and would be more severe. So we're going to look at all of that and decide how we weigh all of those factors and determine the allowance. And so yes, I mean, the downside scenario could push it even further even if the baseline is going up.

好問題，埃里卡。我要說的是，請記住我們運行多個場景。所以我們有我描述的基本情況，但我們也運行了一組更嚴重的不利情況。正如我們所期待的那樣，即使基線進一步惡化，這些情況也會變得更糟。所以我們權衡了所有這些，我們每個季度都會查看它。因此，即使基線在一個地方，下行情景也可能更多、更嚴重。所以我們將研究所有這些並決定我們如何權衡所有這些因素並確定津貼。所以是的，我的意思是，即使基線上升，下行情景也可能進一步推動它。

All right. Thank you, Erika. That completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team.

好的。謝謝你，埃里卡。這完成了我們的財報電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。

Thank you for your interest in Truist. We hope you have a great day. Jake, you may now disconnect the call.

感謝您對 Truist 的關注。我們希望你有一個美好的一天。傑克，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

Very well. Once again, everyone, this does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

很好。各位，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。