Truist Financial Corp (TFC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this event is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Ankur Vyas, Head of Investor Relations, Truist Financial Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們先生們，大家好，歡迎來到 Truist Financial Corporation 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。目前，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式介紹後將進行簡短的問答環節。提醒一下，正在記錄此事件。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，Truist Financial Corporation 投資者關係主管 Ankur Vyas 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jess, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; and our CFO, Mike Maguire.

謝謝你，Jess，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Truist 的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天和我們在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Bill Rogers；以及我們的首席財務官 Mike Maguire。

During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's fourth quarter results and share their perspectives on our continued activation of Truist's purpose, current business conditions and our outlook for 2023. Clarke Starnes, our Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer; Beau Cummins, our Vice Chair; and John Howard, our Chief Insurance Officer, are also in attendance and are available to participate in the Q&A portion of our call.

在今天上午的電話會議上，他們將討論 Truist 的第四季度業績，並就我們繼續激活 Truist 的宗旨、當前的業務狀況以及我們對 2023 年的展望分享他們的觀點。我們的副主席兼首席風險官 Clarke Starnes； Beau Cummins，我們的副主席；我們的首席保險官 John Howard 也出席了會議，並可以參與我們電話會議的問答部分。

The accompanying presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on Slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for the appropriate reconciliations to GAAP. In addition, Truist is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized live and archived webcast are located on our website.

隨附的演示文稿以及我們的收益發布和補充財務信息可在 Truist 投資者關係網站 ir.truist.com 上獲取。我們今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述和某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請查看演示文稿幻燈片 2 和幻燈片 3 中有關這些報表和措施的披露，以及與 GAAP 的適當調節的附錄。此外，Truist 不對第三方提供的我們的收益電話會議記錄的準確性負責，也不對其進行編輯或保證其準確性。唯一授權的現場直播和存檔網絡廣播位於我們的網站上。

With that, let me now turn it over to Bill.

有了這個，現在讓我把它交給比爾。

Thanks, Ankur. And good morning, everybody, and Happy New Year. Thank you for joining our call today. Truist delivered a strong finish to a pivotal and purposeful year. We completed our final integration and decommissioning activities and incurred the final set of merger-related costs. Adjusted PPNR grew a strong 12% sequentially, ahead of our guidance and helped us deliver on our commitment for positive operating leverage for the full year. We'll cover the details on the quarter's results throughout the presentation, and we'll start with our purpose, the foundation of our company on Slide 4.

謝謝，安庫爾。大家早上好，新年快樂。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。 Truist 為關鍵而有意義的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們完成了最後的整合和退役活動，並產生了最後一組與合併相關的成本。調整後的 PPNR 連續強勁增長 12%，超出了我們的指引，並幫助我們兌現了全年積極經營槓桿的承諾。我們將在整個演示過程中詳細介紹本季度的結果，我們將從我們的目標開始，即我們公司在幻燈片 4 上的基礎。

Truist is a purpose-driven company dedicated to inspiring and building better lives and communities. Our purpose is the foundation for our success as a company that drives performance and defines how we do business every day.

Truist 是一家以目標為導向的公司，致力於激發和建設更美好的生活和社區。我們的目標是我們作為一家推動績效並定義我們每天開展業務的方式的公司取得成功的基礎。

Slide 5 highlights many examples of how we activated our purpose in 2022. For our clients, our measurement is to provide distinctive, secure and successful experiences through touch and technology. We achieved a major milestone along that journey with the launch of Truist One Banking, our differentiated product suite that reimagines everyday banking and includes 2 new accounts that eliminate overdraft fees and provide greater access to credit. These accounts meaningfully advance financial inclusion in our communities, and we're very encouraged by the positive reception they've received from new and existing clients alike.

幻燈片 5 突出顯示了我們如何在 2022 年實現目標的許多示例。對於我們的客戶，我們的衡量標準是通過觸摸和技術提供獨特、安全和成功的體驗。隨著 Truist One Banking 的推出，我們在這一旅程中實現了一個重要的里程碑，我們的差異化產品套件重新構想了日常銀行業務，包括 2 個新賬戶，這些賬戶消除了透支費用並提供了更多的信貸渠道。這些賬戶有意義地促進了我們社區的金融包容性，我們對他們從新老客戶那裡得到的積極反響感到非常鼓舞。

Based on August through December data, which reflects Truist One, branch checking production increased 10% from a year-ago period, and we achieved this result despite having around 400 fewer branches. The Truist One suite now also includes our new cash reserve deposit base credit line up to $750, which launched in mid-December and expands our commitment to our clients and communities. Our ability to innovate at the intersection of touch and technology was greatly enhanced by the opening of our new innovation and technology center, which brings our cross-functional teams together with clients and large tech companies to reimagine banking experiences for everyone.

根據反映 Truist One 的 8 月至 12 月的數據，分支機構的支票生產量比去年同期增長了 10%，儘管分支機構數量減少了約 400 個，但我們仍取得了這一成績。 Truist One 套件現在還包括我們最高 750 美元的新現金儲備存款基礎信用額度，該信用額度於 12 月中旬推出，擴大了我們對客戶和社區的承諾。我們新的創新和技術中心的啟用極大地增強了我們在觸摸和技術交叉領域的創新能力，該中心將我們的跨職能團隊與客戶和大型科技公司聚集在一起，為每個人重新構想銀行體驗。

We've already realized the benefits of the ITC as Truist One Banking and the new digital and hybrid investment capabilities launched throughout the year were all co-created client with clients and our client journey rooms.

我們已經意識到 ITC 作為 Truist One Banking 的好處以及全年推出的新數字和混合投資功能都是與客戶和我們的客戶旅程室共同創建的客戶。

We also continued to deliver on our mission for our teammates. In October, we took a bold step to improve the lives of our teammates by raising our minimum wage to $22 an hour. In the 3 months since this took effect, we've experienced improved teammate recruitment, retention, lower turnover expenses, better execution and an all-around better client experience. We also enhanced our total rewards program to include an employee stock purchase program to further align our teammates interest with those of our shareholders.

我們還繼續為我們的隊友履行我們的使命。 10 月，我們邁出了大膽的一步，將最低工資提高到每小時 22 美元，以改善我們隊友的生活。自此生效後的 3 個月裡，我們在隊友招募、留任、人員流動費用降低、執行力和全方位更好的客戶體驗方面得到了改善。我們還加強了我們的整體獎勵計劃，包括一項員工股票購買計劃，以進一步使我們的團隊成員的利益與股東的利益保持一致。

As a company that champions diversity, equity and inclusion, we achieved our goal to increase ethnically diverse representation in senior leadership roles a year early with aspirations for further progress.

作為一家提倡多元化、公平和包容的公司，我們提前一年實現了增加高級領導職位中種族多元化代表的目標，並渴望取得進一步進展。

Finally, Truist has made a significant impact on the communities we serve by meeting and in some categories, exceeding our $60 billion community benefits plan. Our first inspirational commitment is Truist and one that has served as a framework for similar plans across the industry. The execution of this plan was a testament to our purpose of building better lives and communities by elevating low and moderate income and minority communities through material support for affordable housing, nonprofit, small business and community development lending.

最後，Truist 通過會議和某些類別對我們服務的社區產生了重大影響，超過了我們 600 億美元的社區福利計劃。我們的第一個鼓舞人心的承諾是 Truist，它已成為整個行業類似計劃的框架。該計劃的執行證明了我們通過對經濟適用房、非營利組織、小企業和社區發展貸款提供物質支持來改善中低收入和少數族裔社區，從而建設更美好生活和社區的目標。

In summary, we're delivering on our purpose and the significance of what our teammates have accomplished is just outstanding. We'll continue to raise the bar, and I look forward to the year ahead as we actualize our purpose, advance integrated relationship management, positively impact clients and communities through continued investment in touch and technology and make Truist an even better place to work.

總而言之，我們正在實現我們的目標，我們的隊友所取得的成就意義非凡。我們將繼續提高標準，我期待著來年我們實現我們的目標，推進綜合關係管理，通過持續投資接觸和技術對客戶和社區產生積極影響，並使 Truist 成為一個更好的工作場所。

Now turning to Slide 7. Selected items for the quarter totaled $170 million pretax and included our final charges related to the MOE. Now that our integration activities are complete, MOE costs will accent our run rate going forward. This is a positive development for shareholders that underscores our pivot to execution and will simplify our narrative, enhance earnings quality and improve capital generation.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。本季度選定項目的稅前總額為 1.7 億美元，其中包括我們與 MOE 相關的最終費用。現在我們的整合活動已經完成，MOE 成本將影響我們未來的運行率。這對股東來說是一個積極的發展，強調了我們以執行為中心，並將簡化我們的敘述，提高盈利質量並改善資本生成。

Turning to our fourth quarter performance highlights on Slide 8. Truist delivered strong fourth quarter earnings of $1.6 billion or $1.20 per share on a reported basis. Adjusted earnings totaled $1.7 billion or $1.30 per share, up 5% sequentially as strong PPNR growth was partially offset by higher provision expense. Adjusted ROTCE was 30% and even excluding AOCI, was 20%. Both data points are very strong.

轉向我們在幻燈片 8 上的第四季度業績亮點。Truist 在報告基礎上實現了強勁的第四季度收益 16 億美元或每股 1.20 美元。調整後收益總計 17 億美元或每股 1.30 美元，環比增長 5%，因為強勁的 PPNR 增長被更高的撥備費用部分抵消。調整後的 ROTCE 為 30%，甚至不包括 AOCI，為 20%。這兩個數據點都非常強大。

Net interest income grew 7% to $4 billion, a new high for Truist, supported by strong loan growth and significant margin expansion resulted from higher short-term rates and well-controlled deposit costs. Fee income rebounded 6%, primarily due to insurance seasonality of full quarter of BenefitMall results and investment banking. Adjusted expenses increased sequentially, mostly as expected as the impacts of higher minimum wage, acquisitions and targeted investments were partially offset by the final leg of some of our cost-saving efforts. Together, these factors drove a 12% increase in adjusted PPNR exceeding our guidance.

淨利息收入增長 7% 至 40 億美元，創下 Truist 的新高，這得益於強勁的貸款增長和較高的短期利率以及控制良好的存款成本帶來的顯著利潤率擴張。費用收入反彈 6%，主要是由於整個季度 BenefitMall 業績和投資銀行業務的保險季節性。調整後的費用環比增加，大部分符合預期，因為更高的最低工資、收購和有針對性的投資的影響被我們的一些成本節約措施的最後階段部分抵消了。這些因素共同推動調整後的 PPNR 增長 12%，超出了我們的指導。

This performance also resulted in 370 basis points of adjusted operating leverage relative to the fourth quarter of 2021, our strongest operating leverage results for the year. Our adjusted efficiency ratio was 54.2%, our best quarterly performance at Truist thus far. Asset quality remains strong, and the sequential increase in provision expense primarily reflects moderately slower economic assumptions. We also deployed 10 basis points of capital as a result of strong organic loan growth in the BankDirect acquisition. Our capital position remains strong relative to our risk and profitability profile, and we remain confident in our ability to withstand and outperform in a range of economic scenarios.

與 2021 年第四季度相比，這一業績還導致調整後的經營槓桿降低了 370 個基點，這是我們今年最強的經營槓桿結果。我們調整後的效率比為 54.2%，是 Truist 迄今為止最好的季度表現。資產質量依然強勁，撥備費用的環比增長主要反映了經濟假設的適度放緩。由於 BankDirect 收購中強勁的有機貸款增長，我們還部署了 10 個基點的資本。相對於我們的風險和盈利狀況，我們的資本狀況仍然強勁，我們對我們在一系列經濟情景中承受和超越的能力充滿信心。

Turning to our full year highlights on Slide 9. GAAP EPS was relatively stable year-over-year as significantly lower merger-related costs were offset by higher and more normal provision levels. Adjusted EPS declined 10% year-over-year, a solid 4.4% adjusted PPNR growth, was more than offset by the $1.6 billion increase in the loan loss provision expense. Importantly, however, we delivered 60 basis points of adjusted and 680 basis points of GAAP operating leverage for the full year, which was a primary metric to which we hold ourselves accountable to in 2022. This was our first year of operating leverage as Truist and it establishes a firm foundation, which -- from which we can accelerate as we head into 2023.

轉向我們在幻燈片 9 上的全年亮點。GAAP 每股收益同比相對穩定，因為與合併相關的成本顯著降低被更高和更正常的撥備水平所抵消。調整後每股收益同比下降 10%，調整後 PPNR 穩健增長 4.4%，但被貸款損失準備金支出增加 16 億美元所抵消。然而，重要的是，我們全年交付了 60 個基點的調整後和 680 個 GAAP 運營槓桿基點，這是我們在 2022 年對自己負責的主要指標。這是我們作為 Truist 和它建立了一個堅實的基礎，我們可以從這個基礎上加速進入 2023 年。

Turning to Slide 10. Digital engagement rose steadily through 2022 as a result of changing client preferences and our improved agility as Truist. We experienced strong growth in digital transactions and Zelle, in particular, as transaction volume increased 42% since the beginning of the year. Zelle continues to represent an increasing percentage of our overall transaction mix and highlights the importance of continuing to invest in money movement capabilities.

轉到幻燈片 10。由於客戶偏好的變化以及我們作為 Truist 的敏捷性提高，數字參與度在 2022 年穩步上升。我們經歷了數字交易的強勁增長，尤其是 Zelle，交易量自年初以來增長了 42%。 Zelle 在我們的整體交易組合中繼續佔越來越大的比例，並強調了繼續投資於資金流動能力的重要性。

Our agility and responsiveness have improved tremendously since we've migrated to one digital platform built in the cloud, resulting in better client experiences. We delivered 3x as many production releases across retail business and wealth in 2022 as we did in 2021. And as a result, our mobile app was rated at an average of 4.7 stars on Android and iOS at year-end, up materially from a year ago.

自從我們遷移到一個內置於雲端的數字平台後，我們的敏捷性和響應能力得到了極大的提高，從而帶來了更好的客戶體驗。與 2021 年相比，我們在 2022 年交付的零售業務和財富產品發布數量是 2021 年的 3 倍。因此，我們的移動應用程序在年底時在 Android 和 iOS 上的平均評分為 4.7 星，較上年大幅上升前。

We introduced many new digital capabilities and solutions to clients in 2022 from Truist One Banking, Truist Assist and expanded digital investment capabilities, some of which are highlighted on the right side of the slide. In 2023, our goal is to more fully activate those capabilities with our clients to improve acquisition, retention and reduce cost.

2022 年，我們通過 Truist One Banking、Truist Assist 和擴展的數字投資功能向客戶推出了許多新的數字功能和解決方案，幻燈片右側突出顯示了其中一些功能和解決方案。到 2023 年，我們的目標是與客戶一起更充分地激活這些能力，以改善獲取、保留和降低成本。

In addition to enhance digital capabilities for our clients, our digital and technology team successfully completed the largest bank merger in 15 years, decommissioned 3 data centers, successfully piloted a new deposit product on a next-gen real-time cloud-based core, enhanced credit decisioning and underwriting across certain consumer lending platforms and upgraded our contact center technology stack and completed a 5G network and branch WiFi pilot program. We have a great digital and technology team and they've been battle tested and have demonstrated incredible agility in responding to client needs during the integration period while also keeping their eyes on the future.

除了為我們的客戶增強數字能力外，我們的數字和技術團隊還成功完成了 15 年來最大的銀行合併，關閉了 3 個數據中心，在下一代實時雲核心上成功試點了新的存款產品，增強了跨某些消費貸款平台的信貸決策和承銷，升級我們的聯絡中心技術堆棧，並完成了 5G 網絡和分支機構 WiFi 試點計劃。我們擁有一支優秀的數字和技術團隊，他們經過了實戰考驗，在整合期間對客戶需求的響應表現出令人難以置信的敏捷性，同時也著眼於未來。

Turning to loans and leases on Slide 11. Average loan balances increased a strong $11.3 billion or 3.6% sequentially, approximately 20% of which came from the BankDirect acquisition. The improved loan growth we've experienced in recent quarters reflects our shift to execution and Truist's greater competitiveness for clients due to our size and capabilities as well as broader industry trends.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的貸款和租賃。平均貸款餘額環比強勁增長 113 億美元或 3.6%，其中約 20% 來自 BankDirect 收購。由於我們的規模和能力以及更廣泛的行業趨勢，我們在最近幾個季度經歷的貸款增長改善反映了我們轉向執行和 Truist 對客戶的更大競爭力。

C&I grew $7.2 billion or 4.7% overall and increased 3.2%, excluding BankDirect, as balances increased across most CIB industry verticals and product groups and CCB. As in recent quarters, growth continues to be strong within our Asset Finance Group as we continue to build that business with more talent, product capabilities and a larger balance sheet. Macro trends such as supply chain management, infrastructure spending, inflation and choppy capital markets are also supporting growth here.

C&I 整體增長 72 億美元或 4.7%，增長 3.2%，不包括 BankDirect，因為大多數 CIB 垂直行業和產品組以及 CCB 的餘額都有所增加。與最近幾個季度一樣，隨著我們繼續以更多的人才、產品能力和更大的資產負債表來建設該業務，我們的資產金融集團繼續保持強勁增長。供應鏈管理、基礎設施支出、通貨膨脹和動蕩的資本市場等宏觀趨勢也在支持這裡的增長。

CIB delivered growth across most industry verticals due to a combination of new client acquisition, up tiering our position with existing clients, acquisition activity and business-as-usual liquidity management.

由於新客戶收購、現有客戶地位提升、收購活動和常規流動性管理的結合，CIB 在大多數垂直行業實現了增長。

Commercial Community Bank C&I balances grew 3.7%, reflecting the strength of our markets and our team's focus on execution. Residential mortgage balances increased $3 billion or 5% sequentially due to previous correspondent channel production and lower prepayments. Excluding mortgage, consumer and card balances decreased on an end-of-period basis, primarily reflecting continued runoff in our student loan portfolio as well as our decision to pivot away from lower-return portfolios such as prime auto. At the same time, we continue to invest in higher return consumer finance businesses, such as Service Finance, LightStream and Sheffield. Service Finance continues to grow and ended the year with over $3 billion worth of loans, ahead of the high expectations at the time of the acquisition.

Commercial Community Bank C&I 餘額增長 3.7%，反映了我們市場的實力和我們團隊對執行的關注。住宅抵押貸款餘額增加了 30 億美元或 5%，原因是之前的相應渠道生產和較低的預付款。不包括抵押貸款、消費者和信用卡餘額在期末有所下降，這主要反映了我們學生貸款組合的持續減少以及我們決定擺脫 prime 汽車等低迴報組合的決定。同時，我們繼續投資回報率更高的消費金融業務，例如Service Finance、LightStream和Sheffield。 Service Finance 繼續增長，年底貸款價值超過 30 億美元，超出了收購時的高預期。

Going forward, loan growth will moderate from the robust levels in 2022 as clients respond to the impact of higher rates, high inflation and a slowing economy. In addition, we also expect growth in residential mortgage and prime auto to continue to slow as we focus our capital on higher return opportunities. Truist remains well positioned to advise clients across a range of economic scenarios given our broad capability, talented teammates and increased capacity post integration.

展望未來，隨著客戶對利率上升、高通脹和經濟放緩的影響做出反應，貸款增長將從 2022 年的強勁水平放緩。此外，我們還預計住宅抵押貸款和優質汽車的增長將繼續放緩，因為我們將資金集中在更高回報的機會上。鑑於我們廣泛的能力、才華橫溢的團隊和整合後能力的增強，Truist 仍然處於為客戶提供各種經濟情景建議的有利位置。

Now turning to deposits on Slide 12. Average deposit balances decreased 1.6% sequentially as effects of tighter monetary policy, inflation and higher rate alternatives continue to weigh on balances. Deposit costs remained well controlled, reflecting the strength of our deposit franchise and our strategy to be attentive to client needs and relationships while maximizing value outside of rate paid. During the fourth quarter, interest-bearing deposit costs increased 52 basis points, contributing to a cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta of 27%, thus far.

現在轉向幻燈片 12 上的存款。平均存款餘額環比下降 1.6%，因為貨幣政策收緊、通貨膨脹和利率上升的影響繼續對余額造成壓力。存款成本仍然得到很好的控制，這反映了我們存款業務的實力以及我們關注客戶需求和關係同時在支付利率之外實現價值最大化的戰略。第四季度，計息存款成本增加了 52 個基點，累計計息存款貝塔係數為 27%。

As the interest rate environment evolves, we'll continue to take a balanced approach to maintaining and managing deposit growth and rate paid given our broad access to alternative forms of funding. Our continued rollout of Truist One and ongoing investments in treasury and payments will be key areas of focus going forward as we look to acquire new and deepen existing relationships and maximize high-quality deposit growth.

隨著利率環境的演變，我們將繼續採取平衡的方法來維持和管理存款增長和支付利率，因為我們可以廣泛使用其他形式的資金。我們繼續推出 Truist One 以及對資金和支付的持續投資將是未來的重點關注領域，因為我們希望獲得新的和深化現有關係並最大限度地提高高質量的存款增長。

Now with that, let me turn it over to Mike.

現在，讓我把它交給邁克。

Great. Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to begin on Slide 13. For the fourth quarter, taxable equivalent net interest income rose a very strong 7% to $4 billion, primarily due to ongoing margin expansion and strong loan growth. Deposit costs were well controlled and reflect the strength of our deposit franchise.

偉大的。謝謝你，比爾，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 13 開始。第四季度，應稅淨利息收入強勁增長 7% 至 40 億美元，這主要是由於持續的利潤率擴張和強勁的貸款增長。存款成本得到很好的控制，反映了我們存款業務的實力。

Purchase accounting accretion decreased $19 million and is expected to continue to gradually diminish. Reported net interest margin increased 13 basis points and core net interest margin improved 15 basis points as a result of higher short-term interest rates alongside well-controlled deposit costs. Overall, we maintain a balanced approach to managing interest rate risk, maintaining modest upside to higher short-term interest rates while having some downside protection when and if interest rates begin to decline.

採購會計增值減少了 1900 萬美元，預計將繼續逐漸減少。報告的淨息差增加了 13 個基點，核心淨息差增加了 15 個基點，這是由於短期利率上升以及存款成本得到良好控制。總體而言，我們維持一種平衡的方法來管理利率風險，維持較高短期利率的適度上行空間，同時在利率開始下降時以及如果利率開始下降時提供一些下行保護。

Moving to Slide 14. Fee income rebounded during the quarter, increasing $125 million or 6% sequentially. The improvement was largely attributable to seasonality and insurance and the BenefitMall acquisition as well as higher investment banking and lending-related fee income. Insurance income increased $41 million, largely due to seasonality and a full quarter of BenefitMall results. Organic revenue for the full year grew 7% driven by a firm pricing environment, new business and strong retention.

轉到幻燈片 14。本季度費用收入反彈，增加 1.25 億美元，環比增長 6%。這一改善主要歸因於季節性和保險以及 BenefitMall 的收購以及更高的投資銀行和貸款相關費用收入。保險收入增加了 4100 萬美元，這主要是由於季節性因素和 BenefitMall 整個季度的業績。在穩定的定價環境、新業務和強大的保留率的推動下，全年有機收入增長了 7%。

Investment banking and trading income increased $35 million as higher investment banking fees and strong core trading results in the quarter were partially offset by negative impacts from CVA/DVA. For the full year, investment banking income declined 37%, which we believe compares favorably to overall industry fee performance as the partnership between CIB and other lines of business continues to grow and earn momentum builds. Strategic hiring within CIB over the past 2 years has also led to improved lead table standards.

投資銀行業務和交易收入增加了 3500 萬美元，原因是本季度更高的投資銀行業務費用和強勁的核心交易業績被 CVA/DVA 的負面影響部分抵消。全年來看，投資銀行收入下降了 37%，我們認為這比整個行業的費用表現要好，因為 CIB 與其他業務線之間的合作夥伴關係繼續發展並獲得動力。過去 2 年 CIB 內部的戰略性招聘也提高了鉛表標準。

Fee income declined 4% compared to a year ago, primarily driven by declines in market-sensitive businesses such as investment banking, wealth and mortgage and partially offset by organic and inorganic growth in insurance. Overdraft fees also declined from approximately $150 million in 4Q '21 to approximately $120 million in 4Q '22 as a result of the actions we took last year to eliminate a host of overdraft-related fees and the continued introduction of Truist One Banking to new existing clients. We expect overdraft fees to decline another 40% as we move from year-end 2022 to year-end 2024. While fee income remains below its potential, we're optimistic that our investments in key areas such as insurance, investment banking and wealth will pay off as markets normalize and our IRM execution continues to progress.

費用收入與一年前相比下降 4%，這主要是由於投資銀行、財富和抵押貸款等對市場敏感的業務下降，部分被保險的有機和無機增長所抵消。透支費用也從 21 年第四季度的約 1.5 億美元下降到 22 年第四季度的約 1.2 億美元，這是由於我們去年採取行動消除了一系列與透支相關的費用，並繼續將 Truist One Banking 引入新的現有銀行客戶。從 2022 年底到 2024 年底，我們預計透支費用將再下降 40%。雖然費用收入仍低於其潛力，但我們樂觀地認為，我們在保險、投資銀行和財富等關鍵領域的投資將隨著市場正常化和我們的 IRM 執行繼續取得進展，我們將獲得回報。

Turning to Slide 15. Reported noninterest expense increased $109 million or 3% sequentially. Merger and restructuring costs rose $18 million linked quarter and exceeded our October guide by $70 million due to higher-than-expected restructuring charges related to planned facility and branch reductions that will occur in 2023. These were business-as-usual decisions unrelated to the MOE and have solid financial returns.

轉到幻燈片 15。報告的非利息支出環比增加 1.09 億美元或 3%。合併和重組成本環比增加 1800 萬美元，超出我們 10 月份的指引 7000 萬美元，原因是與 2023 年計劃中的設施和分支機構削減相關的重組費用高於預期。這些都是一切照舊的決定，與教育部和有穩固的財務回報。

As Bill indicated, we will have no more restructuring charges or incremental operating expenses related to the MOE going forward. We would anticipate restructuring costs related to prior acquisition activity and other BAU expense normal rationalization efforts. It is difficult to forecast these with accuracy but we would anticipate approximately $100 million to $125 million for 2023.

正如 Bill 所指出的，我們將不再有與 MOE 相關的重組費用或增量運營費用。我們預計與先前收購活動和其他 BAU 費用正常合理化努力相關的重組成本。很難準確預測這些，但我們預計 2023 年約為 1 億至 1.25 億美元。

Adjusted noninterest expense increased $68 million or 2% primarily due to the effects of our nonqualified plan. Excluding changes associated with the nonqualified plan, adjusted expense rose 0.6% sequentially, fairly consistent with our outlook from October.

調整後的非利息費用增加了 6800 萬美元或 2%，這主要是由於我們不合格計劃的影響。排除與不合格計劃相關的變化，調整後的費用環比增長 0.6%，與我們 10 月份的預期相當一致。

Personnel expense increased $84 million, half of which was from changes in the nonqualified plan and half of which was from the recent increase in our minimum wage. These increases were partially offset by a $35 million decrease in marketing expense and a $28 million reduction in other expense. The decline in other expense was driven by lower operational losses, which have decreased for 2 consecutive quarters, as recent investments in talent, technology and process have begun to mitigate our fraud-related costs.

人事費用增加了 8400 萬美元，其中一半來自非合格計劃的變化，另一半來自我們最近提高的最低工資。這些增長部分被營銷費用減少 3500 萬美元和其他費用減少 2800 萬美元所抵消。其他費用的下降是由較低的運營損失推動的，運營損失已連續兩個季度下降，因為最近對人才、技術和流程的投資已開始減輕我們與欺詐相關的成本。

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, adjusted noninterest expense grew by 8% as a result of the increase in minimum wage, investments in revenue-generating businesses, technology and acquisitions, higher call center staffing to support our clients post-merger and a normalizing T&E spend.

與 2021 年第四季度相比，調整後的非利息支出增長了 8%，這是由於最低工資的提高、對創收業務、技術和收購的投資、為支持合併後的客戶而增加的呼叫中心人員配備以及正常化差旅費支出。

For the full year, adjusted expenses were $13.1 billion, up modestly from the $12.8 billion baseline in 2019. This performance is strong, reflecting the achievement of the $1.6 billion net cost save target. Overall, we continue to focus on generating expense reductions in certain areas to fund longer-term investments in talent and technology and to generate ongoing operating leverage. Below the line, our fourth quarter results also reflected an effective tax rate of 16.7%, down from 18.2% in the third quarter, primarily due to annual true-ups for state income tax returns.

全年調整後的支出為 131 億美元，略高於 2019 年的 128 億美元基線。這一表現強勁，反映出 16 億美元的淨成本節省目標已實現。總的來說，我們繼續專注於在某些領域減少開支，為人才和技術的長期投資提供資金，並產生持續的經營槓桿。在此線之下，我們第四季度的業績也反映了 16.7% 的有效稅率，低於第三季度的 18.2%，這主要是由於州所得稅申報表的年度調整。

Moving to Slide 16. Asset quality is strong, reflecting our prudent risk culture and diverse loan portfolio. Net charge-offs increased 7 basis points to 34 basis points largely due to seasonality in indirect auto and lower recoveries. The allowance increased $172 million, reflecting strong loan growth and the ALLL ratio was stable at 1.34% as the effects of a moderately slower economic outlook were offset by high quality organic loan growth and the BankDirect acquisition. Excluding the BankDirect portfolio, which has extremely low losses through cycles, the ALLL ratio would have increased approximately 2 basis points.

轉到幻燈片 16。資產質量強勁，反映出我們審慎的風險文化和多樣化的貸款組合。淨註銷增加 7 個基點至 34 個基點，這主要是由於間接汽車的季節性和較低的回收率。準備金增加了 1.72 億美元，反映出貸款增長強勁，ALLL 比率穩定在 1.34%，因為經濟前景適度放緩的影響被高質量的有機貸款增長和 BankDirect 收購所抵消。排除週期損失極低的 BankDirect 投資組合，ALLL 比率將增加約 2 個基點。

Continuing to Slide 17. Our CET1 ratio decreased from 9.1% to 9.0% as we deployed capital to support strong organic loan growth and closed the BankDirect acquisition. We also continue to pay a strong dividend at $0.52 per share. Overall, our capital position remains strong relative to our risk and profitability profile. We expect organic capital generation to improve in 2023 due to the elimination of MOE-related costs and more focused loan growth, all of which will provide additional flexibility and opportunities for Truist.

繼續幻燈片 17。我們的 CET1 比率從 9.1% 下降到 9.0%，因為我們部署資本以支持強勁的有機貸款增長並完成對 BankDirect 的收購。我們還繼續支付每股 0.52 美元的高股息。總體而言，相對於我們的風險和盈利狀況，我們的資本狀況仍然強勁。由於消除了 MOE 相關成本和更集中的貸款增長，我們預計 2023 年有機資本生成將有所改善，所有這些都將為 Truist 提供更多的靈活性和機會。

Finally, our liquidity position remains strong with an average LCR of 112% and access to multiple funding sources. Our securities portfolio remains high quality at 97% government guaranteed and continues to produce approximately $3 billion of cash flow per quarter, which has supported our loan growth.

最後，我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，平均 LCR 為 112%，並可獲得多種資金來源。我們的證券投資組合保持高質量，97% 由政府擔保，並繼續每季度產生約 30 億美元的現金流，這支持了我們的貸款增長。

Turning to Slide 18 where I'll provide guidance for the first quarter and full year 2023. Looking into 1Q '23, we expect revenues to decline 2% to 3% relative to 4Q 2022, primarily driven by 2 fewer days impacting net interest income in addition to typical seasonal patterns in investment banking, card and payments and service charges, amongst other factors. Adjusted expenses are anticipated to increase 1% to 2% as higher pension expense and FDIC premiums, along with seasonally higher personnel expenses are partially offset by ongoing cost discipline.

轉到幻燈片 18，我將在其中提供 2023 年第一季度和全年的指導。展望 2023 年第一季度，我們預計收入將比 2022 年第四季度下降 2% 至 3%，這主要是由於影響淨利息收入的天數減少了 2%除了投資銀行業務、銀行卡和支付以及服務費等方面的典型季節性模式外。調整後的費用預計將增加 1% 至 2%，因為更高的養老金費用和 FDIC 保費，以及季節性增加的人事費用被持續的成本控制部分抵消。

For the full year 2023, we expect revenues to increase 7% to 9%, driven largely by strong net interest income growth and modestly improving fees. Adjusted expenses are anticipated to increase 5% to 7% as a result of higher pension expense, higher FDIC premiums, the full annual impact of our minimum wage increase and acquisitions that closed throughout 2022. These 4 factors drive about 4% of our year-over-year increase.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計收入將增長 7% 至 9%，這主要是受淨利息收入強勁增長和費用適度提高的推動。由於更高的養老金支出、更高的 FDIC 保費、我們最低工資增長的全年影響以及整個 2022 年結束的收購，調整後的支出預計將增加 5% 至 7%。這四個因素推動了我們今年約 4%-同比增長。

Given these factors, we are targeting adjusted operating leverage to be 200 basis points or greater, which would be more than 3x our pace in 2022. We also expect the net charge-off ratio to be between 35 and 50 basis points in 2023, given our expectations for continued normalization across the loan portfolio. Lastly, excluding discrete items, we expect our effective tax rate will be approximately 19%, which translates to approximately 21% if you model it on a taxable equivalent basis.

考慮到這些因素，我們的目標是調整後的經營槓桿率達到 200 個基點或更高，這將是我們 2022 年步伐的 3 倍以上。我們還預計 2023 年淨註銷率將在 35 至 50 個基點之間，鑑於我們對整個貸款組合繼續正常化的預期。最後，不包括離散項目，我們預計我們的有效稅率約為 19%，如果您在應稅等值基礎上建模，則轉化為約 21%。

Now I'll hand it back to Bill for some final remarks.

現在我將把它交還給 Bill，請他作最後的評論。

Great. Thanks, Mike. Continuing on Slide 19. The fourth quarter was a strong finish to a year that was strategic and financial turning point for Truist. The pivot from integrating to operating is real, it's palpable and it can be evidenced across a number of dimensions. Loan production in the fourth quarter was near the highest it's been at Truist. This is despite some intentional reductions in certain consumer categories. Commercial Community Bank loan and deposit production in both the fourth quarter and full year was the strongest we've had at Truist. Importantly, left lead relationships within CCB were up 36% in 2022, reflecting our increased strategic relevance and advisory capabilities with clients.

偉大的。謝謝，邁克。繼續幻燈片 19。第四季度是對 Truist 的戰略和財務轉折點的一年的強勁收尾。從整合到運營的轉變是真實的、顯而易見的，並且可以在多個方面得到證明。第四季度的貸款產量接近 Truist 的最高水平。儘管某些消費類別有意減少，但仍如此。第四季度和全年的商業社區銀行貸款和存款生產是我們在 Truist 擁有的最強勁的。重要的是，2022 年 CCB 內部的左領導關係增長了 36%，反映出我們與客戶的戰略相關性和諮詢能力有所提高。

Branch deposit and checking unit production in the fourth quarter increased 24% and 8%, respectively, compared to the year-ago quarter as teammates became more confident with processes and systems, but also improved solutions and capabilities. Our wealth line of business has had 3 consecutive quarters of adding net new advisers, and organic asset flows continue to be positive. Integrated relationship management activity across the company gained momentum throughout the year as a result of more focus, increased alignment and improved reporting as we ended the year with a 16% increase in qualified referral activity, excluding mortgage relative to 2021.

與去年同期相比，第四季度的分行存款和支票單位產量分別增長了 24% 和 8%，因為團隊成員對流程和系統更有信心，同時也改進了解決方案和能力。我們的財富業務已連續 3 個季度淨增加新顧問，有機資產流量繼續為正。由於更加專注、加強協調和改進報告，我們全年的綜合關係管理活動獲得了動力，我們在年底時合格推薦活動增加了 16%，不包括相對於 2021 年的抵押貸款。

Average client satisfaction scores for retail and small business banking are ascending and in the fourth quarter reached their highest levels for the year in key areas that include our branches, call centers, retail digital experiences and small business. Our digital app ratings ended the year as one of the leaders in our peer group after starting near the bottom. The financial benefits of this momentum can be seen with the fourth quarter operating leverage being the strongest of the year and adjusted PPNR building each quarter.

零售和小型企業銀行業務的平均客戶滿意度得分正在上升，第四季度在包括我們的分支機構、呼叫中心、零售數字體驗和小型企業在內的關鍵領域達到了今年的最高水平。我們的數字應用評級從接近墊底的位置開始，在今年年底成為我們同行組中的領先者之一。這種勢頭帶來的財務收益可以從第四季度的經營槓桿是一年中最強的，以及每個季度調整後的 PPNR 建築中看出。

So to conclude on Slide 20, our fourth quarter results reaffirm that Truist is on the right path, and I'm highly optimistic about our ability to realize our significant post-integration potential to summarize on our investment thesis. Our goal financially is to produce strong growth and profitability and to do so with less volatility than our peers.

因此，在幻燈片 20 上結束時，我們第四季度的業績再次證明 Truist 走在正確的道路上，我對我們實現重大整合後潛力以總結我們的投資主題的能力非常樂觀。我們的財務目標是產生強勁的增長和盈利能力，並且比我們的同行波動性更小。

2023 will be our first full year as Truist with zero integration activity, and our priorities are very clear. Core execution to actualize Truist and our purpose, harvesting IRM opportunities, continuing to digitize and automate our processes and operations and maintaining a strong profitability profile. We'll also raise the bar on ourselves, focusing on the KPIs that drive total shareholder return and ensuring executive compensation targets reflects our potential, not just our business mix.

2023 年將是我們作為 Truist 開展零整合活動的第一個完整年度，我們的優先事項非常明確。核心執行以實現 Truist 和我們的目標，收穫 IRM 機會，繼續數字化和自動化我們的流程和運營，並保持強大的盈利能力。我們還將提高自己的標準，專注於推動股東總回報的 KPI，並確保高管薪酬目標反映我們的潛力，而不僅僅是我們的業務組合。

While economic uncertainty remains high, Truist is in a position of strength across a broad range of outcomes because of our diverse business mix, conservative credit culture, balanced approach to interest rate risk management, strong profitability profile and our strong risk-adjusted capital position and most notably, our significant performance momentum as we continue to shift from integration to executional excellence and purposeful growth.

儘管經濟不確定性仍然很高，但由於我們多元化的業務組合、保守的信貸文化、平衡的利率風險管理方法、強勁的盈利能力以及我們強大的風險調整後資本狀況，Truist 在廣泛的成果中處於優勢地位，並且最值得注意的是，隨著我們繼續從整合轉向卓越執行和有目的的增長，我們顯著的績效勢頭。

Ankur, let me turn it back over to you and begin the Q&A.

Ankur，讓我把它交還給你，然後開始問答環節。

Thanks, Bill. Jess, at this time, if you would explain how our listeners can participate in the Q&A session. As you do that, I'd like to ask the participants to please limit yourself to 1 primary question and 1 follow-up so that we can accommodate as many of you as possible today.

謝謝，比爾。 Jess，此時，請您解釋一下我們的聽眾如何參與問答環節。當你這樣做時，我想請參與者將自己限制在 1 個主要問題和 1 個後續問題，以便我們今天可以容納盡可能多的人。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we got you.

是的，我們找到你了。

Okay. Great. So it looks like -- I'm going to push the Corvette analogy. It looks like you're guiding for your Corvette of a franchise to go from first to second gear or maybe second or third, but you're guiding for twice as much revenue growth. You're guiding for 3x more operating leverage. But I and others are going to be unsure if you're going to be able to get that given your headcount's up 3% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter, you have NII pressures from deposits, and you have capital market headwinds. So I guess the question is, what's your degree of confidence with this 2023 guidance given some of the pressures and the internal expenses? And along with that, your merger saves, are they all in now? Or do you still get some payout effect that you benefit in the first quarter? I know you disconnected 3 data centers.

好的。偉大的。所以它看起來像 - 我要推動 Corvette 類比。看起來您正在指導您的 Corvette 特許經營權從一檔到二檔，或者可能是二檔或三檔，但您正在指導收入增長兩倍。您正在指導 3 倍以上的運營槓桿。但我和其他人不確定你是否能夠做到這一點，因為你的員工人數在第四季度環比增長 3%，你有來自存款的 NII 壓力，而且你有資本市場的逆風。所以我想問題是，考慮到一些壓力和內部開支，您對 2023 年指南的信心程度如何？除此之外，你的合併保存，它們現在都在嗎？或者你是否仍然獲得了一些你在第一季度受益的支付效應？我知道您斷開了 3 個數據中心的連接。

Yes. Yes, Mike, let me start with the last one first. Yes, they're all done. So we're entering the year with a positive aspect of not sort of having those adjustments every quarter to talk about.

是的。是的，邁克，讓我先從最後一個開始。是的，他們都完成了。因此，我們以積極的一面進入了這一年，即每個季度都無需討論這些調整。

And then as it relates to the confidence in our guidance, there is a lot of market uncertainty. So we have to accept that. I mean there's -- things could change, the inflation, what are clients going to be doing, but we have a lot of our own internal momentum. We talked about -- I mean, your analogy of first, second or third or fourth. I don't know how any gears a Corvette has, but we continue to grind through that. So we have our own momentum that we're creating. And you saw that in some of the production numbers. I think you see that in some of the deposit betas. You see that in terms of our ability to, I think, outperform both in the asset and liability performance of our company as well as in the stability of some of the fee businesses.

然後，由於它與我們對指導的信心有關，因此存在很多市場不確定性。所以我們必須接受這一點。我的意思是 - 事情可能會發生變化，通貨膨脹，客戶將要做什麼，但我們有很多自己的內部動力。我們談到了——我的意思是，你對第一、第二或第三或第四的類比。我不知道克爾維特有多少齒輪，但我們會繼續努力。所以我們有自己正在創造的動力。你在一些生產數據中看到了這一點。我想你在一些存款貝塔中看到了這一點。我認為，就我們在公司資產和負債表現以及某些收費業務的穩定性方面表現出色的能力而言，你會看到這一點。

We've got a great insurance business. We've got great momentum within our investment banking business. It isn't just market-driven. I mean these are also relationships that we're developing with our commercial core businesses. So we're expanding our capabilities and our prowess. So while there are headwinds and we accept those and understand those, we have enough of our own tailwinds. I sort of call it, the Truist tailwind. That's just our increased performance, our increased capacity. And when I offset those Mike, that's what gives me the confidence in the guidance is I can feel enough tailwinds to know that we can offset some of the headwinds that we may be facing.

我們擁有出色的保險業務。我們的投資銀行業務發展勢頭強勁。這不僅僅是市場驅動的。我的意思是，這些也是我們正在與我們的商業核心業務發展的關係。因此，我們正在擴展我們的能力和實力。因此，儘管存在逆風並且我們接受並理解這些逆風，但我們自己的逆風已經足夠多了。我稱之為 Truist 順風。那隻是我們提高的性能，我們增加的容量。當我抵消那些邁克時，這就是讓我對指導充滿信心的原因是我能感受到足夠的順風，知道我們可以抵消我們可能面臨的一些逆風。

And then a follow-up. You mentioned good insurance, maybe this is for you, Bill and Mike. You have an insurance operation where publicly comparable peers trade at like 3x the valuation of Truist. So lot of press, no comments from you guys. All you did is that boasting about this business. How do you think about monetizing some of that unrealized value that tracks value so that shareholders might benefit more? Or is this just part of your firm forever and you would never consider a move like that?

然後是跟進。你提到了很好的保險，也許這適合你，比爾和邁克。你有一家保險業務，其中公開可比同行的交易價格約為 Truist 估值的 3 倍。這麼多新聞，你們沒有評論。你所做的只是吹噓這項業務。您如何考慮將跟踪價值的一些未實現價值貨幣化，以便股東可能受益更多？或者這只是您公司永遠的一部分，您永遠不會考慮這樣的舉動？

Yes, Mike, I mean, I think, one, I respect the question, but I think you've got to respect that as it relates to specific market rumors or speculation, I just can't comment on that. But I can comment on the fact that we really like the insurance business. And we've been in the insurance business for a long time. Just celebrated its 100th year anniversary. So that was sort of cool. We've been supporting the insurance business from acquisitions. So they've been able to grow both, I think, very competitively from organic and inorganic basis, but it's also a consolidating business. We want to make sure that we're always providing the right level of support for that insurance business to continuing to grow and continuing to be really valuable contribution for our shareholders.

是的，邁克，我的意思是，我認為，第一，我尊重這個問題，但我認為你必須尊重它，因為它與特定的市場謠言或猜測有關，我不能對此發表評論。但我可以評論我們真的很喜歡保險業務這一事實。我們從事保險業務已有很長時間了。剛剛慶祝成立 100 週年。所以這有點酷。我們一直通過收購來支持保險業務。因此，我認為，他們能夠從有機和無機基礎上非常有競爭力地發展，但這也是一項整合業務。我們希望確保我們始終為該保險業務提供適當水平的支持，以繼續發展並繼續為我們的股東做出真正有價值的貢獻。

We'll go next to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin 旁邊。

Just wondering if you can provide us a little breakdown detail between -- inside your revenue growth guide for the year. Just generally speaking, what are you expecting for NII versus fees? And what rate curve are you using in your NII forecast?

只是想知道您是否可以在您的年度收入增長指南中向我們提供一些細分細節。一般來說，您對 NII 與費用有何期望？您在 NII 預測中使用的利率曲線是什麼？

Ken, it's Mike. I'll take that one. I guess starting with the last question on the rate curve. Our outlook is that we'll see 2 rate hikes in the first quarter, 25 apiece in February and March and see a policy rate stable until November, where we would expect a cut, which obviously, at the end of the year, probably doesn't have much of an impact on our NII perspective.

肯，是邁克。我會拿那個。我想從利率曲線的最後一個問題開始。我們的前景是，我們將在第一季度看到 2 次加息，2 月和 3 月各 25 次，政策利率將穩定到 11 月，我們預計會在 11 月降息，顯然，到年底，可能不會' 對我們的 NII 觀點有很大影響。

Breaking revenue for the year into 2 components. From an NII perspective, the way I'd think about it is we obviously had really strong growth in 2022. The second half, in particular, also had very nice margin expansion. So we have a really nice exit velocity from an NII perspective. We believe we have a little bit of asset sensitivity left. So we do have the opportunity to realize some of the upside of the hikes in the first quarter and we'll have, as Bill mentioned, slowing loan growth. But those 2 factors combined, we think, give us a stable outlook for Q1 NII. And then for the rest of the year, that we believe will stay relatively stable, some pressure on the NIMs offset by some modest amount of loan growth. On a year-over-year basis, just given the average loan growth that we would expect, that will be, we think, a very nice growth, and frankly, will drive the majority of the growth potential in the revenue guide.

將當年的收入分成 2 個部分。從 NII 的角度來看，我的想法是我們顯然在 2022 年實現了非常強勁的增長。特別是下半年，利潤率也有非常好的增長。所以從 NII 的角度來看，我們有一個非常好的退出速度。我們相信我們還有一點資產敏感性。因此，我們確實有機會在第一季度實現加息的一些好處，正如比爾提到的那樣，我們將放緩貸款增長。但我們認為，這兩個因素相結合，為我們提供了 NII 第一季度的穩定前景。然後在今年餘下的時間裡，我們認為這將保持相對穩定，NIM 的一些壓力被適度的貸款增長所抵消。與去年同期相比，僅考慮到我們預期的平均貸款增長，我們認為這將是一個非常好的增長，坦率地說，這將推動收入指南中的大部分增長潛力。

From a fee perspective, I think a couple of puts and a few takes. We expect to continue to have good performance from the insurance business, which is growing nicely on an organic basis as well as realizing the full benefit of the acquisitions that we completed in 2022. Our investment banking business, we believe, has some potential to benefit from improvements in market conditions, probably more likely in the second half than the first half. And then I think we'll have a little bit of pressure. We would expect there to be pressure on the residential mortgage business as well as the service charges and overdraft fees on deposits.

從費用的角度來看，我認為有一些投入和一些投入。我們預計保險業務將繼續保持良好的表現，該業務在有機基礎上增長良好，並實現了我們在 2022 年完成的收購的全部收益。我們相信，我們的投資銀行業務有一定的受益潛力從市場狀況的改善來看，下半年可能比上半年更有可能。然後我想我們會有一點壓力。我們預計住宅抵押貸款業務以及服務費和存款透支費將面臨壓力。

Okay. Great. And then a follow-up on deposits. 27% cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta through the fourth quarter. You guys were in the mid-30s last time. I don't think yet you've given us an idea of what you think the cumulative could be this cycle. Any views on that at this point in terms of the direction and the endpoint?

好的。偉大的。然後跟進存款。截至第四季度，累計計息存款貝塔值為 27%。你們上次是在 30 多歲的時候。我認為您還沒有告訴我們您認為累積可能是這個週期的想法。目前在方向和終點方面對此有何看法？

Yes, Ken. I'll take that one again. Look, I've been very pleased by how the betas have performed so far. They've outperformed our expectations on a pretty consistent basis. We obviously are seeing some acceleration of rate pursuing behaviors and seeing pressures on balances as well. Uncharted territory in many respects. We think we will get through the last cycle, perhaps even high 30s, approaching and even hitting 40% by the time we're to the last hike.

是的，肯。我會再拿那個的。看，到目前為止，我對測試版的表現非常滿意。他們在相當一致的基礎上超出了我們的預期。我們顯然看到利率追求行為有所加速，也看到了余額壓力。在許多方面都是未知領域。我們認為我們將度過最後一個週期，甚至可能達到 30 多歲，到最後一次加息時接近甚至達到 40%。

Ken, it's Bill. The only thing I'd add is just the strength of our deposit franchise. So you sort of asked about our relative deposit beta performance. But we're really experiencing what we hope we would experience as Truist. We're sitting in great markets. We've got a 21% average share. Our competitors are mainly large banks. We've introduced some great new product capability in Truist One. Our branch production is up. Our teammates are really doing a great job. The ubiquity of presence, the ability to amortize your marketing and be more effective. So our strength of our overall deposit franchise is starting to manifest itself and show itself of what we thought we could create and create at Truist.

肯，是比爾。我唯一要補充的是我們存款特許經營權的實力。所以你有點問我們的相對存款貝塔表現。但我們確實正在經歷我們希望我們作為 Truist 會經歷的事情。我們正坐在偉大的市場上。我們的平均份額為 21%。我們的競爭對手主要是大銀行。我們在 Truist One 中引入了一些很棒的新產品功能。我們的分支生產了。我們的隊友真的做得很好。存在的無處不在，攤銷營銷並提高效率的能力。因此，我們整體存款特許經營權的優勢開始顯現，並展示了我們認為我們可以在 Truist 創造和創造的東西。

Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you talk about your capital priorities and remind us what your near-term capital target is, please?

你能談談你的資本優先事項並提醒我們你的近期資本目標是什麼嗎？

Yes. Matt, our priorities remain the same in terms of the top four priorities. The first is to continue to invest in our business. And we've seen a lot of opportunity to do that. I mean you've seen the asset growth in our business and RWA growth, and we feel really good about the opportunities to invest in that. The second is to have a secure and growing dividend base. That's important to our -- both our institutional and our retail shareholders. So that's a critical.

是的。馬特，就前四項優先事項而言，我們的優先事項保持不變。首先是繼續投資於我們的業務。我們已經看到了很多這樣做的機會。我的意思是你已經看到我們業務的資產增長和 RWA 的增長，我們對投資於此的機會感到非常高興。第二是擁有一個安全且不斷增長的股息基礎。這對我們的機構和散戶股東都很重要。所以這是一個關鍵。

And then the third is M&A opportunities, inorganic opportunities. And you've seen we've been active. They've been -- some have been smaller by nature, but we've seen opportunities to enhance our businesses mostly in the insurance business, but also on the technology side and some capability side and some talent side that we've added in those areas. And then the fourth is share repurchase. And for us, that just hasn't been as big a priority because we've done a lot in the first three of those priorities.

第三個是併購機會，無機機會。你已經看到我們一直很活躍。他們一直 - 有些本質上規模較小，但我們已經看到了加強我們業務的機會，主要是在保險業務方面，但也在技術方面和一些能力方面以及我們在這些方面增加的一些人才方面領域。然後第四個是股票回購。對我們來說，這並不是一個重要的優先事項，因為我們在前三個優先事項中做了很多工作。

And as it relates to target, I mean, we've been sort of careful to say we really -- we like where we're operating right now. So we think we've got the capacity to do the things we need to do. We think given our risk profile, given our stress adjusted risk profile, we think we're in a really strong position from a capital perspective.

就目標而言，我的意思是，我們一直很謹慎地說我們真的——我們喜歡我們現在的運營地點。所以我們認為我們有能力做我們需要做的事情。我們認為，考慮到我們的風險狀況，考慮到我們的壓力調整風險狀況，我們認為從資本的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位。

But also, as Mike noted in his comments, we accrete. If you think about our earnings profile, but also the fact that our MOE expenses come off, we're sort of in a unique position to accrete capital. So we'll accrete about 25 basis points worth of capital. We've been using some of that for those first 2, 3 priorities that we talked about. So I think on balance, we'll probably see capital increase but we're comfortable that we've got enough capital to execute our strategies and support our businesses.

但是，正如邁克在他的評論中指出的那樣，我們也在增生。如果您考慮我們的收益狀況，以及我們的 MOE 支出減少的事實，我們在某種程度上處於積累資本的獨特位置。所以我們將積累大約 25 個基點的資本。我們一直在將其中一些用於我們談到的前 2、3 個優先事項。所以我認為總的來說，我們可能會看到資本增加，但我們很高興我們有足夠的資本來執行我們的戰略和支持我們的業務。

Okay. And then so hypothetically, if you say won the lottery for $5 billion, what would you do with that capital? I don't think you're going to change the organic growth. The dividend is kind of tapped by regulation, roughly, the last two buckets of M&A and buybacks. And if you walk into that $5 billion, what would you do with it?

好的。然後假設，如果你說中了 50 億美元的彩票，你會用這筆資金做什麼？我不認為你會改變有機增長。紅利有點受到監管的影響，大致是併購和回購的最後兩桶。如果你走進那 50 億美元，你會用它做什麼？

I don't want to answer a hypothetical lottery question because we're not lottery ticket buyers. That's not part of our strategy. I think we've got that's really based on, can we support our businesses long term? And can we provide the capital they need to grow? And we're going to use all of our strategies and all of our capabilities to ensure that we're supporting businesses and their growth.

我不想回答一個假設的彩票問題，因為我們不是買彩票的人。這不是我們戰略的一部分。我認為我們已經得到了真正的基礎，我們可以長期支持我們的業務嗎？我們能否提供他們發展所需的資本？我們將使用我們所有的戰略和我們所有的能力來確保我們支持企業及其發展。

Our next question comes from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

I was wondering if you could give us some color on how you see credit unfolding for Truist this year and what you've baked into the charge-off guidance that you gave for this year?

我想知道你是否可以給我們一些顏色，說明你如何看待今年 Truist 的信貸進展，以及你在今年給出的沖銷指導中融入了什麼？

Clarke, you take that.

克拉克，你接受那個。

John, this is Clarke. I'll take that one. As you saw, we had 34 basis points in losses in Q4. That reflected primarily seasonality -- normal seasonality in our consumer segments and a little bit of normalization. And as Mike mentioned, we had lower recoveries in our wholesale areas. So that's what the delta was from Q3 to Q4. And then what we're seeing is the consumer segments are normalizing. And also just to remind you all that the whole industry has had anemic wholesale and CRE losses over the last couple of years. So we're pretty similar to that. So therefore, we'd expect losses to return toward the lower range of our long-term loss range of 40 to 60 basis points as we go through '23, and it just depends upon how the economy performs. And that's why you see that reflected in our guidance of 35 to 50 bps.

約翰，這是克拉克。我會拿那個。如您所見，我們在第四季度損失了 34 個基點。這主要反映了季節性——我們消費者群體的正常季節性和一點正常化。正如邁克所說，我們在批發領域的回收率較低。這就是從第三季度到第四季度的增量。然後我們看到的是消費者群體正在正常化。還要提醒大家，在過去幾年中，整個行業的批發和 CRE 損失慘重。所以我們非常相似。因此，我們預計隨著 23 年的到來，損失將回到我們長期損失範圍 40 至 60 個基點的較低範圍，這僅取決於經濟的表現。這就是為什麼您會在我們 35 至 50 個基點的指導中看到這一點。

Okay. Thanks, Clarke. And then for Mike. Mike, on the expense outlook for adjusted expense growth, mid-single digits, how much of that is kind of pulling through acquisitions you added at the end of last year? And how much of that is kind of core expense growth and investments?

好的。謝謝，克拉克。然後是邁克。邁克，關於調整後費用增長的費用前景，中個位數，其中有多少是通過你在去年年底增加的收購來拉動的？其中有多少是核心費用增長和投資？

Sure. In '23, I believe the annualized M&A impact is $127-or-so million. So that's about 1% of that growth. You recall in the guide, we talked about these 4 components that were -- where we have quite a bit of visibility into and frankly, not much flexibility, and that's the pension, the M&A impact, the annualized impact of minimum wage and the FDIC expense. And those components in the aggregate are about 4%. Hope that helps.

當然。在 23 年，我相信年化併購影響為 1.27 億美元左右。所以這大約是增長的 1%。你還記得在指南中，我們談到了這 4 個組成部分——我們對這些組成部分有相當多的了解，坦率地說，沒有太多的靈活性，那就是養老金、併購影響、最低工資的年化影響和 FDIC費用。這些成分加起來約佔 4%。希望有所幫助。

Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala at Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just one follow-up, Bill, on the capital allocation question. One, just given, I mean, there's obviously a lot of speculation when you talk to investors around the insurance business. Like if you can talk to, given the multiple difference between insurance companies trading at 20x PE, do you still think it makes sense in terms of deploying capital to do more acquisitions on the insurance front as opposed to buying back stock? And on the other hand, I would love to hear how you would think about maybe moving away from that business, but giving up a very defensible revenue stream.

比爾，我想只是關於資本分配問題的後續行動。第一，我的意思是，當你與保險業的投資者交談時，顯然會有很多猜測。就像你可以談談，鑑於保險公司之間以 20 倍 PE 交易的倍數差異，你仍然認為在保險方面部署資本進行更多收購而不是回購股票有意義嗎？另一方面，我很想听聽您如何考慮離開該業務，但放棄一個非常可靠的收入來源。

Yes. Again, I'm not going to comment on sort of where we are from a speculative standpoint, other than to say, we love the insurance business. We want the insurance business to grow. We've done, I'm staring at John, probably 100 acquisitions over time. So we've got a really good framework in assisting that business to grow. But as I mentioned in my earlier comments, it is a consolidating business. So we want to make sure that we've got all the flexibility and capability to create capital and support all of our businesses and their growth.

是的。同樣，我不會從投機的角度評論我們所處的位置，只是說，我們熱愛保險業務。我們希望保險業務增長。我們已經完成了，我盯著約翰看，隨著時間的推移可能有 100 次收購。因此，我們有一個非常好的框架來幫助該業務發展。但正如我在之前的評論中提到的，這是一項整合業務。因此，我們希望確保我們擁有創造資本和支持我們所有業務及其增長的所有靈活性和能力。

Got it. And I guess just taking a step back with the merger integration done, the cost behind you. Remind us in terms of like what we've not heard so far on the call is the scale benefits as we think about go forward in terms of picking up bigger deals on the lending side, on the fee revenue side. Just remind us some of the revenue synergies we should expect from the Truist franchise on a go-forward basis and why you can outperform just the peers within the market or within your asset size set?

知道了。而且我想只是在完成合併整合後退一步，成本就在你身後。提醒我們，到目前為止我們在電話會議上還沒有聽到的是規模效益，因為我們考慮在貸款方面、費用收入方面進行更大的交易。只是提醒我們一些我們應該在前進的基礎上從 Truist 特許經營中期望的收入協同效應，以及為什麼您可以在市場或您的資產規模範圍內超越同行？

Yes. Great question. And one of them I talked about just a minute ago was the deposit franchise. So the scale and the ubiquity and the size and the prowess that we have in our markets, I think, is a distinct advantage and you see that. The other component of that is the markets that we're in. So not only is it scale, but at scale in the right places. So we have markets that I think will sustain sort of any economic environment with higher beta to the upside and a lower beta to the downside. So in markets where we have a lot of in-migration versus out-migration and business development and growth. So that's one component.

是的。很好的問題。我剛才談到的其中一個是存款專營權。因此，我認為，我們在市場上的規模、普遍性、規模和實力是一個明顯的優勢，你看到了。另一個組成部分是我們所處的市場。所以它不僅是規模，而且是在正確的地方規模。因此，我認為我們的市場將維持任何經濟環境，上行貝塔較高，下行貝塔較低。因此，在我們有大量遷入與遷出以及業務發展和增長的市場中。所以這是一個組成部分。

You mentioned the capital markets side, and I talked about the community bank, the prowess that we've seen there, 36% increase in left leads and those type things, that comes from scale. That comes from an ability to be more relevant to our clients, to have discussions with them that we weren't having before, to be more strategic and to be in that left lead spot versus that right lead spot. And we all know the economics of that. I mean the economics are multiples of where you are in the spectrum. So our relevance is not only related to our scale, but also related to our product and capabilities.

你提到了資本市場方面，我談到了社區銀行，我們在那裡看到的實力，左線索增加了 36%，以及那些來自規模的事情。這來自於與我們的客戶更相關的能力，與他們進行我們以前沒有進行過的討論，更具戰略性以及處於左領先位置與右領先位置的能力。我們都知道這其中的經濟學。我的意思是經濟學是你在頻譜中所處位置的倍數。所以我們的相關性不僅與我們的規模有關，還與我們的產品和能力有關。

We've tried to sort of put a number on that. And I'd say sort of back-of-the-envelope kind of math, I mean, it's at least 10% of some of the growth that we've seen in our investment banking business we could attribute to being more scale-oriented, again, not taking outsized positions but taking positions that are on the left versus the right and the economics that come along with that. And then everything to do with all the operations and efficiency. So everything to do with the base that we operate from, we just have more opportunity to create more efficiency. So when we do something that has previously had tens of millions of dollars of impact. Today, it can have $50 million and $60 million of impact because you're doing it across a bigger base and a bigger capability.

我們試圖在某種程度上給出一個數字。我想說的是一種粗略的數學，我的意思是，我們在投資銀行業務中看到的一些增長中至少有 10% 可以歸因於更加以規模為導向，再次，不是採取過大的立場，而是採取左派與右派的立場以及隨之而來的經濟學。然後一切都與所有操作和效率有關。因此，與我們運營的基地有關的一切，我們都有更多機會創造更高的效率。所以當我們做一些以前有數千萬美元影響的事情時。今天，它可以產生 5000 萬美元和 6000 萬美元的影響，因為你是在更大的基礎和更大的能力範圍內進行的。

The ability to negotiate better contracts with our providers and our partners, and we saw a lot of that in the merger. Our ability to go in and be more relevant and more important to them, get terms that we think better reflect that. Mike, what else am I forgetting in that list because it's a long list. I mean it's a great question and one we probably ought to talk more about.

與我們的供應商和合作夥伴談判更好的合同的能力，我們在合併中看到了很多。我們有能力進入並與他們更相關、更重要，獲得我們認為更能反映這一點的術語。邁克，我還忘記了那個列表中的什麼，因為它很長。我的意思是這是一個很好的問題，我們可能應該更多地討論這個問題。

Yes, I think it's been moving more relevant on capabilities, more relevant on size. You're seeing it in the results, whether it'd be the ability to manage expenses.

是的，我認為它在能力上越來越相關，在規模上越來越相關。您會在結果中看到它，無論是管理費用的能力。

The financial market. Our pricing on debt deals.

金融市場。我們對債務交易的定價。

Yes, exactly right.

是的，完全正確。

So the list is pretty long.

所以名單很長。

Our next question comes from Stephen Scouten at Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen Scouten。

Maybe, Jess, we go to the next person. See if Stephen can get back in after.

也許，Jess，我們去找下一個人。看看史蒂芬能不能回來。

Absolutely. We will do that. We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

絕對地。我們會那樣做。我們將與 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 一起去。

Can you guys share with us, you've got some good guidance on the operating leverage for 2023 being, I think, Mike, you said about 3x the level of what you achieved in 2022. But I noticed that in the third and fourth quarters, the operating leverage was higher than what you're hoping to achieve in '23. Can you share with us why there seems to be some slowdown in that operating leverage relative to the fourth quarter or third quarters of 2022?

你們能否與我們分享一下，你們對 2023 年的運營槓桿有一些很好的指導，我認為，邁克，你說的是你在 2022 年實現的水平的 3 倍。但我注意到在第三和第四季度，經營槓桿高於您希望在 23 年實現的水平。您能否與我們分享一下，為什麼與 2022 年第四季度或第三季度相比，該運營槓桿似乎有所放緩？

Yes. Sure, Gerard. As we look into '23, I think a couple of factors. One, we -- obviously, 2022 was a year where we had outsized, particularly in the second half, loan growth and net interest margin expansion, which obviously was a great tailwind on the revenue side. As we look into '23, we expect to continue to have nice growth from a year-over-year perspective, but we are expecting that NII trend to really stabilize. And frankly, we're going to begin to experience some pressure on the NIM side probably in the second quarter.

是的。當然，杰拉德。當我們研究 23 年時，我認為有幾個因素。第一，我們 - 顯然，2022 年是我們超額增長的一年，尤其是在下半年，貸款增長和淨息差擴張，這顯然是收入方面的一個巨大推動力。當我們展望 23 年時，我們預計從同比的角度來看將繼續保持良好的增長，但我們預計 NII 趨勢將真正穩定下來。坦率地說，我們可能會在第二季度開始在 NIM 方面承受一些壓力。

From an expense perspective, we also mentioned, there are a few just structural expenses that are in the plan for '23 that when combined, add up to about 4% year-over-year change. We obviously intend to make investments beyond those 4 categories in our clients, in our teammates and in other strategic investment priorities. But that structural expense growth is there. So again, we feel good about that sort of 2% with upside operating leverage guide and feel good about our, frankly, our revenue guide as well. So hopefully, that's helpful to you.

從費用的角度來看，我們還提到，23 年的計劃中有一些只是結構性費用，加起來總計約 4% 的同比變化。我們顯然打算在我們的客戶、我們的隊友和其他戰略投資優先事項上進行這 4 類以外的投資。但結構性支出增長是存在的。因此，我們再次對具有上行運營槓桿指南的那種 2% 感覺良好，坦率地說，我們的收入指南也感覺良好。希望對您有所幫助。

Good. No, I appreciate that. And then as a follow-up, many of you or many of your peers and yourselves are obviously building up loan loss reserves. The outlooks that people are using are calling for a weaker economy, but we don't seem to be seeing that yet in any of the numbers. And if you look at the spreads and the high-yield market, they haven't blown out. One of your competitors or peers, as they pointed out that spreads on commercial loans still are pretty tight. So I don't know, Bill, when you talk to your customers, what are they seeing that maybe we might not see as much of a downturn as everybody is kind of forecasting right now later this year?

好的。不，我很感激。然後作為後續行動，你們中的許多人或你們的許多同行和你們自己顯然正在建立貸款損失準備金。人們使用的前景是經濟疲軟，但我們似乎還沒有在任何數字中看到這一點。如果你看看利差和高收益市場，它們並沒有爆發。您的一位競爭對手或同行指出，商業貸款的利差仍然非常小。所以我不知道，比爾，當你和你的客戶交談時，他們看到了什麼，也許我們可能不會像今年晚些時候每個人現在預測的那樣看到經濟衰退？

Yes. I mean I think you point out, I mean, the data are confusing. There's just no doubt about that. I mean, you see some positives and you see some negatives. If you look at -- just think about the last few days, retail sales were not really very strong, sort of a poor Christmas selling season. You've seen inflation being a bigger part of what people do, and supply chain seems to sort of be reconciling itself. So I think it's more of a perspective, just -- there has to be a higher impact from higher inflation. And whether that's reduced hiring from our clients, whether that's reduced capital investment, and all those type things.

是的。我的意思是我認為你指出，我的意思是，數據令人困惑。毫無疑問。我的意思是，你看到了一些積極因素，也看到了一些消極因素。如果你看看 - 想想過去幾天，零售銷售並不是非常強勁，有點像聖誕節銷售旺季。你已經看到通貨膨脹在人們所做的事情中佔了更大的一部分，供應鏈似乎正在自我協調。所以我認為這更像是一種觀點，只是 - 更高的通貨膨脹必須產生更大的影響。以及這是否減少了我們客戶的招聘，是否減少了資本投資，以及所有這些類型的事情。

And in fairness, it's a little more prospective. So when we talk to our clients and we look at our portfolios today, things are great. I mean, as Clarke mentioned, our commercial portfolio looks fantastic. Our clients are in really good shape. But rents will come due, things will -- payments will come due, things will change over time. So I think it's just a little more of trying to understand where the economy is puck's going versus where it is today because I think today, it actually looks pretty strong. Clarke, what would you add to that?

公平地說，它更具前瞻性。因此，當我們與客戶交談並查看我們今天的投資組合時，一切都很好。我的意思是，正如克拉克所說，我們的商業組合看起來很棒。我們的客戶狀況非常好。但是租金會到期，事情會——付款會到期，事情會隨著時間的推移而改變。所以我認為這只是試圖了解經濟的發展方向與今天的情況相比，因為我認為今天，它實際上看起來非常強勁。克拉克，你會補充什麼？

Well, I would just say, to your point, Bill, clients' balance sheets, their liquidity, their financial positions are very good going into this. Obviously, depending on what happens in the economy, the impact of the higher rates, input costs, all of these things, we're monitoring very closely with our clients. Gerard, we're looking at things like CRE and the term risk and things like office. I think we're just looking out what could be some of those impacts from the -- in the -- if the economy does slow and obviously, that's reflected in everyone's provisioning models. But to your point, the actual performance to date and the near-term outlook is still strong.

好吧，我只想說，就你的觀點而言，比爾，客戶的資產負債表、他們的流動性、他們的財務狀況在這方面都非常好。顯然，根據經濟中發生的情況、更高利率的影響、投入成本以及所有這些因素，我們正在與客戶密切關注。杰拉德，我們正在研究諸如 CRE 和術語風險以及辦公室之類的東西。我認為我們只是在尋找其中的一些影響——如果經濟確實放緩，而且很明顯，這反映在每個人的供應模型中。但就您的觀點而言，迄今為止的實際表現和近期前景仍然強勁。

You didn't talk about the consumer side. I mean, on the consumer side, it is normalizing and in some cases, normalized to where we are right now. So you do start to see some of that. We've done a lot of work looking at sort of our lower-income borrowers and some of the challenges that they may be facing from inflation. Maybe they're not facing it today, but that's starting to build as they start to withdraw a little more deposits.

你沒有談論消費者方面。我的意思是，在消費者方面，它正在規範化，在某些情況下，規範化到我們現在的狀態。所以你確實開始看到其中的一些。我們做了很多工作來研究我們的低收入借款人以及他們可能面臨的通貨膨脹帶來的一些挑戰。也許他們今天沒有面對它，但隨著他們開始提取更多的存款，這種情況開始增加。

So it is more of a prospective thing than a current thing, and we're all trying to find the right calibration of where things might land. And we don't want to undershoot that runway. I mean one will be conservative, one will be appropriate and think through all the risk that could exist in the portfolio.

所以它更像是一個未來的事物而不是當前的事物，我們都在努力找到事物可能著陸的正確校準。而且我們不想衝破跑道。我的意思是一個人會保守，一個人會適當並考慮投資組合中可能存在的所有風險。

Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I just want to understand a little bit more. I know we touched in a couple of different ways, but you've got the revenue outlook for 2023, up 7% to 9%. And what I'm hearing is loan growth slowing slightly from the 11% level you have now, but really not that much and that the fee growth will be lower due to some of the things you've mentioned around mortgage. But that loan growth is likely to be a little bit above that adjusted revenue number with the pressure coming a little bit in fees and then also NIM pulling back in the back half of the year. Is that a fair summary?

我只是想多了解一點。我知道我們以幾種不同的方式進行了接觸，但您已經了解了 2023 年的收入前景，增長 7% 至 9%。我聽到的是貸款增長從你現在的 11% 水平略有放緩，但實際上並沒有那麼多，而且由於你提到的有關抵押貸款的一些事情，費用增長將會降低。但貸款增長可能略高於調整後的收入數字，因為費用壓力略有增加，NIM 在今年下半年也有所回落。這是一個公平的總結嗎？

Yes. Betsy, I think I'd say it maybe a little bit differently. And I think Mike was trying to make this point. I mean we're sort of -- if you look at sort of NII for the fourth quarter, and we're assuming that sort of stable through the year. So that's the big driver. I mean if you think about what's the big bus in the revenue guidance, it's NII being stable. And that's not loan growth at the kind of revenue numbers. I mean the loan growth is going to pull back a little bit. Some of that's going to be intentional on our part. A lot of it's going to be return-oriented, just making sure that we've got really, really great relevance with our clients.

是的。 Betsy，我想我會說的可能有點不同。我認為 Mike 正試圖說明這一點。我的意思是我們有點——如果你看一下第四季度的 NII，我們假設全年都保持穩定。這就是最大的驅動力。我的意思是，如果你考慮收入指導中的大巴士是什麼，那就是 NII 穩定。這不是那種收入數字的貸款增長。我的意思是貸款增長將略有回落。其中一些是我們故意的。很多都是以回報為導向的，只是確保我們與客戶有非常非常大的相關性。

And in some cases, the fee business is we expect to be up. We expect insurance to be up. We expect it to continue in its sort of high single-digit organic growth. We still have some inorganic momentum from some of the acquisitions we've gotten. We expect investment banking to actually return and increase its revenue growth. That will probably be a little more back-end weighted in fairness, but as we see where markets come out. But the big driver is sort of the NII fourth quarter where we are and that moving forward on a stabilized basis. That's the biggest driver.

在某些情況下，我們預計收費業務會上升。我們預計保險會上漲。我們預計它將繼續保持高個位數的有機增長。我們已經獲得的一些收購仍然有一些無機動力。我們預計投資銀行業務將真正回歸併增加其收入增長。這可能會更加公平地在後端加權，但正如我們所看到的市場結果。但最大的推動力是我們所處的 NII 第四季度，並且在穩定的基礎上向前發展。這是最大的驅動因素。

And I know in the press release, you talked a bit about having -- managing your deposit costs well and tightly, et cetera. Can you give us a sense as to how you think about the trajectory of that line item as we go through '23?

而且我知道在新聞稿中，你談到了 - 妥善、嚴格地管理你的存款成本，等等。在我們經歷 23 年時，您能否告訴我們您如何看待該訂單項的軌跡？

Yes, I'll do it at a high level. I mean it will be -- continue to be slightly down. So -- I mean I think that's -- that trend will continue. I think on a relative basis, we're showing deposit betas that are more reflective of our opportunity. And as the costs continue to grow, I mean, deposit betas will increase. Mike, I don't know if you want to comment sort of specifically how we're thinking about that.

是的，我會在高水平上做到這一點。我的意思是它會 - 繼續略有下降。所以——我的意思是我認為——這種趨勢將繼續下去。我認為相對而言，我們展示的存款貝塔值更能反映我們的機會。隨著成本繼續增長，我的意思是，存款貝塔係數將會增加。邁克，我不知道你是否想具體評論一下我們是如何考慮的。

Yes. We mentioned in an earlier question that we see betas increasing. Whether they reach the 40% level or not, we'll see. I'd say the other trend, Betsy, which is consistent with what others are expecting and what's consistent with our expectation is we're still seeing a remixing from DDA and interest-bearing. So that makes sense. And we're still well above where we were sort of pre-stimulus. We were in the high 20s, 28%, 29%. We peaked during the sort of height of stimulus in the 35.5%, 36%. We're back at like 34% right now and going to 33% and probably approaching 30% over time. And I think, Bill, you hit it right. I mean, I think we are seeing some deposit balance pressure in the aggregate, and we would expect that to continue in 2023, perhaps moderate a bit.

是的。我們在之前的問題中提到，我們看到貝塔值在增加。他們是否達到 40% 的水平，我們拭目以待。我想說的是另一個趨勢，Betsy，這與其他人的預期一致，也與我們的預期一致，我們仍然看到 DDA 和生息的混合。所以這是有道理的。而且我們仍然遠遠高於刺激前的水平。我們處於 20 多歲、28%、29% 的高位。我們在 35.5%、36% 的刺激高峰期達到頂峰。我們現在回到了 34% 左右，然後將達到 33%，隨著時間的推移可能接近 30%。我認為，比爾，你說得對。我的意思是，我認為總體上我們看到了一些存款餘額壓力，我們預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續，或許會有所緩和。

All right. Thanks, Betsy. Jess, it looks like there's not anyone left in the queue, so that completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you all for your interest in Truist. We hope you have a great day. Jess, you can now disconnect the call.

好的。謝謝，貝琪。 Jess，看來隊列中沒有人了，我們的財報電話會議到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。感謝大家對 Truist 的關注。我們希望你有一個美好的一天。 Jess，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。