使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Teradyne second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
各位女士、先生,早安,歡迎參加 Teradyne 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,今天的電話會議將被錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to Amy McAndrews, VP of Corporate Relations for Teradyne. Please go ahead.
現在我想把電話交給 Teradyne 企業關係副總裁 Amy McAndrews。請開始。
Amy McAndrews - Vice President, Corporate Affairs
Amy McAndrews - Vice President, Corporate Affairs
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Michelle Turner.
謝謝,接線員。各位早安,歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Greg Smith,以及我們的財務長 Michelle Turner。
Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the second quarter of 2026 and our outlook for the third quarter. The press release containing our second-quarter results was issued last evening.
在開場致詞之後,我們將提供 2026 年第二季的營運表現細節,以及對第三季的展望。包含我們第二季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。
We are providing slides as well as a copy of these prepared remarks on the Teradyne Investor website that may be helpful in following the discussion. Replay of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
我們在 Teradyne 投資人網站提供投影片以及本次預先準備講稿的副本,可能有助於各位跟進討論內容。本次電話會議結束後,也可透過同一頁面收聽重播。
The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation.
我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述,涉及可能導致 Teradyne 結果與管理層目前預期有重大差異的風險。我們提醒聽眾,不要過度依賴本簡報中任何前瞻性陳述。
We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, on file with the SEC. Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today.
我們鼓勵各位查閱本簡報投影片中所載的「安全港」聲明,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)申報、截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止會計年度的 Form 10-K 年報中所描述的風險因素。此外,這些前瞻性陳述僅以今日為準。
During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, where available on our Investor website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在投資人網站上張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊,包括在可取得的情況下,與最直接可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。
Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology-focused investor conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs and Citi. Our quiet period will begin at the close of business on September 11, 2026.
展望未來,在下一次財報電話會議之前,Teradyne 預期將參與由高盛與花旗主辦、以科技為主題的投資人研討會。我們的靜默期將於 2026 年 9 月 11 日營業結束時開始。
Following Greg and Michelle's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions. This call is scheduled for one hour. Greg?
在 Greg 與 Michelle 今天早上的評論之後,我們將開放提問。本次電話會議預計為一小時。Greg?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning. For the second quarter in a row, we delivered record revenue, and once again, AI was the driver. Total company revenue topped $1.3 billion, up over 100% year over year with non-GAAP EPS of $2.47, up over 300% year over year.
各位早安。連續第二個季度,我們交出創紀錄的營收,而 AI 再次是主要驅動力。公司總營收突破 13 億美元,年增超過 100%;非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)為 2.47 美元,年增超過 300%。
All three of our business groups, Semi Test, Product Test and Robotics grew year over year and quarter over quarter, highlighting the AI demand across all parts of the business. At more than 60%, AI-driven revenue is the key proof point that our wafer to AI data center strategy is delivering results.
我們三個事業群——半導體測試(Semi Test)、產品測試(Product Test)與機器人(Robotics)——不論年比年或季比季皆成長,凸顯 AI 需求遍及業務各個部分。AI 驅動的營收占比超過 60%,是我們「從晶圓到 AI 資料中心」策略正在產生成果的關鍵佐證。
There are many superlatives that we could use to describe this quarter's results, and Michelle is going to walk you through the details. I'd like to use my time today to set context for what we believe is a multiyear growth phase for our entire business, driven by the continued AI build-out.
我們可以用許多最高級形容詞來描述本季的成果,而 Michelle 將帶各位了解細節。我今天想用我的時間,為我們所相信的、由持續的 AI 建置所驅動的全公司多年成長階段建立背景脈絡。
Certainly, this is clearest in compute across CPUs, accelerators, networking and in memory for HBM and DDR. However, data centers are now also the primary growth drivers for flash memory, hard disk drives, power, board test, high-speed interconnect and Robotics. The long timeline of data center investment plans has given our SoC and memory customers the confidence to aggressively invest in wafer fabrication equipment for new process technologies and additional wafer capacity.
這在運算領域最為明顯,涵蓋 CPU、加速器、網路,以及記憶體中的 HBM 與 DDR。然而,資料中心如今也成為快閃記憶體、硬碟機(HDD)、電源、板級測試、高速互連與機器人業務的主要成長驅動力。資料中心投資計畫的長期時間軸,使我們的 SoC 與記憶體客戶更有信心,積極投資於新製程技術與額外晶圓產能所需的晶圓製造設備。
For years, semiconductor capital investment grew slowly and ATE grew even more slowly within it. That's changing. Two factors are now tailwinds for the ATE TAM. The first is overall semi-cap investment, particularly wafer fab equipment, WFE, which has begun accelerating. More WFE means more wafers and new equipment generations enable denser process nodes.
多年來,半導體資本投資成長緩慢,而其中的自動測試設備(ATE)成長更慢。這正在改變。目前有兩項因素正成為 ATE 可服務市場(TAM)的順風。第一項是整體半導體資本支出,特別是晶圓廠設備(WFE),已開始加速。更多的 WFE 意味著更多晶圓,而新一代設備也能支援更高密度的製程節點。
More wafers and higher density together mean more transistors to test in SoC and more bits to test in memory. WFE CapEx is now forecasted to approach $250 billion by the end of the decade, driving 5% to 10% annual growth in 300-millimeter wafer production and 15% to 20% CAGR in total transistor production over the midterm.
更多晶圓加上更高密度,意味著在 SoC 中需要測試的電晶體更多,在記憶體中需要測試的位元(bits)也更多。目前預測 WFE 資本支出在本十年末將接近 2,500 億美元,推動 300 毫米晶圓產量每年 5% 至 10% 的成長,以及中期總電晶體產量 15% 至 20% 的年複合成長率(CAGR)。
Total non-memory transistor production is a reasonable first order predictor of the SoC TAM. Every transistor must be tested, and a given process node yields roughly the same transistor count per wafer regardless of device type. Memory bit production is the analogous predictor for the memory TAM, also forecast to grow at a 15% to 20% CAGR over the midterm.
非記憶體電晶體總產量,是 SoC TAM 合理的一階預測指標。每一顆電晶體都必須被測試,而且在特定製程節點下,不論裝置類型為何,每片晶圓大致會產出相近的電晶體數量。記憶體位元產量則是記憶體 TAM 的對應指標,同樣預測在中期將以 15% 至 20% 的 CAGR 成長。
Neither of these predicts the ATE TAM precisely in any given year, but both signal direction. Transistor and bit growth rates have inflected upward and are expected to hold a steeper slope through the end of the decade.
這兩者都無法在任何單一年份精準預測 ATE TAM,但都能指示方向。電晶體與位元的成長率已出現向上拐點,且預期在本十年末之前將維持更陡峭的成長斜率。
The second factor is advanced packaging. Wafer transistor counts don't vary with die size, but the required test volume scales with acceptable quality level for the devices being tested. As accelerators, CPUs and networking devices pack in more chiplets, memories and eventually CPO, a single latent defect has a greater impact on final device yield, raising test intensity per die in multichip packages.
第二項因素是先進封裝。晶圓上的電晶體數量不會隨晶粒(die)尺寸而改變,但所需的測試量會隨被測裝置可接受的品質水準而擴大。隨著加速器、CPU 與網路裝置整合更多小晶片(chiplets)、記憶體,並最終導入 CPO,單一潛在缺陷對最終裝置良率的影響更大,因而提高多晶片封裝中每顆晶粒的測試強度。
Both package volume and dies per package are forecast to keep rising through the end of the decade, providing a sustained tailwind to the compute TAM. The result, after more than a decade of semi-cap equipment outgrowing the test TAM, the trend reversed in 2024 and test is now outpacing fab equipment.
預測封裝數量與每個封裝中的晶粒數都將在本十年末之前持續上升,為運算 TAM 提供持續的順風。其結果是,在半導體資本設備成長超過測試 TAM 長達十多年之後,趨勢於 2024 年反轉,測試如今正超越晶圓廠設備的成長速度。
With WFE long-term forecast becoming clearer, we're increasingly confident in long-term ATE growth. As WFE CapEx approaches $250 billion by the end of the decade, we see a path for overall ATE TAM to reach or exceed $20 billion.
隨著 WFE 的長期預測愈發清晰,我們對 ATE 的長期成長也更有信心。當 WFE 資本支出在本十年末接近 2,500 億美元時,我們看見整體 ATE TAM 達到或超過 200 億美元的路徑。
In addition to being in a growing market, we are confident that we will be able to gain share over the midterm. With the ramp of merchant GPU and the initial dual platform qualification in our second major hyperscaler, we are positioned to gain share in the core compute segment.
除了身處成長中的市場之外,我們也有信心在中期能夠提升市占率。隨著商用 GPU 的放量,以及在我們第二家主要超大規模雲端客戶(hyperscaler)完成初始雙平台認證,我們已具備在核心運算領域提升市占的有利位置。
Our leadership position in HBM and DRAM maximizes our exposure to DRAM-driven growth. And segments where we have historically had high share like flash memory, mobile, industrial and automotive are positioned for growth driven by cloud, edge and physical AI, whether it's in cars, robots, phones or wearables.
我們在 HBM 與 DRAM 的領先地位,使我們能最大化受惠於 DRAM 驅動的成長。而在我們歷來市占較高的領域,如快閃記憶體、行動裝置、工業與車用,也將受惠於雲端、邊緣與實體 AI 所驅動的成長,無論是在汽車、機器人、手機或穿戴式裝置上。
Before I hand off to Michelle, I'd like to share a few demand highlights and their impact to share gains. First, in memory. Demand has increased from strength in HBM and DRAM and a resurgence in the NAND final test.
在我把時間交給 Michelle 之前,我想分享幾項需求重點,以及它們對市占提升的影響。首先是記憶體。受惠於 HBM 與 DRAM 的強勁表現,以及 NAND 終測需求回溫,需求已增加。
The 2026 memory TAM is likely to be more than 40% larger than 2025 with notable growth from the first half of 2026 to the second half. A highlight in memory is the growth in HBM-based die test. Our Magnum testers have logic test capabilities that provide attractive swing tool advantages for memory makers.
2026 年的記憶體 TAM 很可能比 2025 年大 40% 以上,且 2026 年上半年到下半年的成長相當顯著。記憶體方面的一大亮點,是以 HBM 為基礎的晶粒測試成長。我們的 Magnum 測試機具備邏輯測試能力,能為記憶體製造商提供具吸引力的「擺動工具」(swing tool)優勢。
Now on to compute. In the first quarter, we received our first order for a merchant GPU customer, which was delivered in the second quarter. Also in Q3, we completed correlation at a second hyperscaler, increasing our confidence in 2027 market share growth.
接著談運算。在第一季,我們收到一位商用 GPU 客戶的首筆訂單,並於第二季交付。此外,在第三季,我們在第二家 hyperscaler 完成了相關性驗證(correlation),進一步提升我們對 2027 年市占成長的信心。
As we discussed last quarter, our expectation is that our compute business would be concentrated in the first half. We have multiple programs across networking and hyperscalers that built out capacity in the first half that is now being utilized. The next surge for these customers is expected to be in the first half of 2027.
如同我們在上一季所討論的,我們預期運算相關業務將集中在上半年。我們在網路與超大規模雲端客戶(hyperscalers)領域有多個專案,已於上半年完成產能建置,現正開始被使用。預期這些客戶的下一波需求高峰將出現在 2027 年上半年。
Since dual vendor strategies are emerging at the largest compute customers, I'd like to give you a bit more color about how we think this will play out. These customers recognize the importance of derisking their supply chain. We see this as an important share driver over the next few years.
由於在最大的運算客戶中,雙供應商策略正在浮現,我想再補充一些我們對其發展的看法。這些客戶認知到降低供應鏈風險的重要性。我們認為這將在未來幾年成為推動市占的重要動能。
The dual vendor qualification process generally runs through four phases. The first, an opportunity to compete. Second, developing a working solution. Third, correlation. And then finally, a production ramp. If successful, it takes 9 to 12 months from the start to the ramp.
雙供應商的認證流程通常分為四個階段。第一是取得競爭機會。第二是開發可運作的解決方案。第三是相關性驗證(correlation)。最後是量產爬坡(production ramp)。若進展順利,從啟動到量產爬坡通常需要 9 到 12 個月。
After the initial dual-sourced part ramps, we enter a fast follower phase where additional parts are converted and ramped. Ultimately, the account reaches a mature dual vendor stage where either platform is used for initial part release.
在初始的雙來源零件完成爬坡後,我們會進入快速跟進(fast follower)階段,將更多零件轉換並爬坡。最終,該客戶會進入成熟的雙供應商階段,在初始零件導入(initial part release)時即可使用任一平台。
It can take a few years to get from fast follower to mature dual vendor. During the fast follower phase, we expect market share to grow incrementally from 0 up to about 30%. Right now, we have one compute customer in the mature dual vendor phase, one in fast follower and one in qualification prior to ramp.
從快速跟進到成熟雙供應商階段可能需要數年時間。在快速跟進階段,我們預期市占將由 0 逐步提升至約 30%。目前,我們有一位運算客戶處於成熟雙供應商階段,一位處於快速跟進階段,另有一位在量產爬坡前的認證階段。
I'd also like to add a little color around networking. Frontier models require ever larger accelerator clusters. This is driving extreme growth in networking for scale-out, scale-across and scale-up applications. While the total number of network connections is growing fast, the timing of transitions from cable to backplane and from pluggable to XPO and CPO is in constant flux.
我也想就網路業務補充一些說明。前沿模型(frontier models)需要更大規模的加速器叢集。這正推動用於 scale-out、scale-across 與 scale-up 應用的網路需求出現爆發性成長。雖然網路連線總數快速增加,但從纜線轉向背板、以及從可插拔(pluggable)轉向 XPO 與 CPO 的轉換時點仍在不斷變動。
Our belief is that there is robust growth in all of these technologies. This drove our acquisition of Quantifi Photonics, the development of the Photon 100 solution for optical connections and our MultiLane Test Products JV for copper connections.
我們相信上述各項技術都具備強勁成長。這也促成我們收購 Quantifi Photonics、開發用於光連結的 Photon 100 解決方案,以及與 MultiLane Test Products 成立用於銅連結的合資企業(JV)。
We are working with multiple ecosystem partners to develop leading-edge solutions from silicon photonics wafers to full data center racks. We expect CPO alone will be a $300 million to $700 million market by 2028.
我們正與多個生態系夥伴合作,開發從矽光子晶圓到完整資料中心機櫃的先進解決方案。我們預期僅 CPO 到 2028 年就將形成 3 億至 7 億美元的市場。
Our IST business grew revenue 2.5 times quarter-over-quarter on strength in HDD fueled by AI. We expect continued growth of our IST business in the second half. Given the strong forecast for greater than 20% annual exabyte growth and our design wins, we are confident this business will grow over the midterm as well.
我們的 IST 業務在 AI 帶動的 HDD 強勁需求下,營收較上季成長 2.5 倍。我們預期 IST 業務在下半年將持續成長。鑑於每年超過 20% 的 exabyte 成長強勁預測以及我們的設計導入(design wins),我們也有信心該業務在中期將持續成長。
The data center build-out will drive growth for our Product Test and Robotics groups through the end of the decade as well. The logic chain is straightforward. More data center construction drives more rack shipments per year, which is driving growth at contract manufacturers and original design manufacturers.
資料中心建置也將在本十年末之前,帶動我們產品測試(Product Test)與機器人(Robotics)事業群的成長。其邏輯鏈很直接。更多資料中心建設帶來每年更多機櫃出貨,進而推動代工製造商與原始設計製造商(ODM)的成長。
This, combined with the rapid advancement of data center architectures, creates a significant opportunity for Teradyne to provide solutions well matched to the volume, quality and flexibility data center applications required. This is best reflected in the total available market for automation and test among contract manufacturers and ODMs.
再加上資料中心架構的快速演進,為 Teradyne 提供了重大機會,能提供與資料中心應用所需的產量、品質與彈性高度匹配的解決方案。這點最能反映在代工製造商與 ODM 端自動化與測試的總可服務市場(TAM)上。
We believe that there is currently a multibillion-dollar market for assembly, automation, test and burn-in equipment, and we expect double-digit -- mid-double-digit growth rates through the end of the decade. By addressing these applications with enhanced production board test, optical test, backplane test and robotic-assisted test and assembly, Teradyne is uniquely positioned to follow the value chain from wafer to data center.
我們相信目前組裝、自動化、測試與燒機(burn-in)設備已是數十億美元規模的市場,並預期在本十年末之前將維持雙位數、且中段雙位數的成長率。透過以強化的量產板級測試、光學測試、背板測試,以及機器人輔助的測試與組裝來切入這些應用,Teradyne 具備獨特優勢,可沿著價值鏈從晶圓一路延伸到資料中心。
Our wafer to data center strategy is working. Our optimism around 2026 and 2027 and through the midterm has grown. We are leaning further into investments to capture opportunities across the value chain, both organically and inorganically. And we are investing in next-generation products across our entire portfolio.
我們「從晶圓到資料中心」的策略正在奏效。我們對 2026 年、2027 年以及中期展望的樂觀程度提高了。我們正加大投資力度,以在價值鏈各環節把握機會,包含有機與非有機成長。同時,我們也在整個產品組合上投資下一代產品。
As we win business, we build out customer teams for major hyperscalers and semiconductor suppliers. The fact that we are leaning into these investments now is a sign of our confidence in the sustainability of this market growth.
隨著我們贏得業務,我們會為主要超大規模雲端客戶與半導體供應商擴編客戶團隊。我們此刻加大這些投資,顯示我們對此市場成長可持續性的信心。
We expect 2027 to be another year of healthy growth for Teradyne, consistent with the transistor and bit growth dynamics I described earlier. It's clear to us that increases in WFE spend will be a primary driver to ATE TAM growth, and this sets the approach for how we will be updating our target earnings model, which we will share in our Q4 earnings call.
我們預期 2027 年將是 Teradyne 另一個健康成長的年度,與我先前描述的電晶體與位元成長動態一致。我們清楚看到,晶圓製造設備(WFE)支出的增加將成為自動測試設備(ATE)TAM 成長的主要驅動因素;這也將決定我們更新目標獲利模型的方式,我們會在第四季財報電話會議中分享。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Michelle.
接下來我把電話會議交給 Michelle。
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
Thanks, Greg. Let me build on that with the detailed results for the quarter, starting with total company performance. Both revenue and non-GAAP EPS came in above the high end of our guidance range as strong AI-driven demand continued across all parts of our portfolio.
謝謝,Greg。我將在此基礎上,從公司整體表現開始,說明本季的詳細結果。由於 AI 驅動的強勁需求持續遍及我們產品組合的各個部分,營收與非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)皆高於我們指引區間的上緣。
Sequentially, total company sales were up 4% from last quarter's previous record. For the first half of 2026, we delivered $2.6 billion in revenue and $5.02 of non-GAAP EPS, up close to 100% and 275% year over year, respectively, driven by all things AI.
以季比來看,公司總銷售額較上一季的前一項紀錄成長 4%。2026 年上半年,我們實現 26 億美元營收與 5.02 美元的非 GAAP EPS,分別年增接近 100% 與 275%,主要由各項 AI 相關需求所帶動。
Building on that, let's take a deeper look at revenue starting with Semi Test. Our Semi Test team once again cleared the $1 billion high watermark established last quarter with revenue up $11 million from first quarter and 128% from Q2 2025.
在此基礎上,讓我們更深入檢視營收,先從半導體測試(Semi Test)開始。我們的 Semi Test 團隊再次突破上一季創下的 10 億美元高水位,營收較第一季增加 1,100 萬美元,較 2025 年第二季成長 128%。
The revenue breakdown within Semi Test was SoC of $843 million, memory at $212 million and IST at $67 million. As expected, compute order timing was more than offset by another record memory quarter and IST growing over 150% quarter over quarter.
Semi Test 內部的營收組成為:SoC 8.43 億美元、記憶體 2.12 億美元,以及 IST 6,700 萬美元。如預期所示,運算訂單時點的影響,已被另一個創紀錄的記憶體季度以及 IST 季增超過 150% 所抵銷。
Within SoC, compute remains the largest portion of our SoC product revenue at 70%. Compute revenue grew nearly 600% year over year on strong AI-related demand. In the quarter, as Greg mentioned, we have completed correlation with a second AI hyperscaler customer, and we shipped the previously announced merchant GPU order. This further diversifies our compute portfolio, creating a foundation for future market share gains over the midterm.
在 SoC 之中,運算仍是我們 SoC 產品營收的最大部分,占比 70%。在強勁 AI 相關需求帶動下,運算營收年增接近 600%。本季如 Greg 所提,我們已完成與第二家 AI 超大規模雲端客戶的相關性驗證(correlation),並出貨先前宣布的商用 GPU(merchant GPU)訂單。這進一步分散我們的運算產品組合,為中期未來的市占提升奠定基礎。
Auto and industrial continued to strengthen over last year, driven by power management demand increases for AI data center buildouts. Mobile grew seasonally quarter over quarter double digits, though it remains below historical levels and a muted part of the overall SoC portfolio.
汽車與工業領域相較去年持續走強,主要受 AI 資料中心建置帶動的電源管理需求增加所驅動。行動裝置業務因季節性因素季比呈雙位數成長,但仍低於歷史水準,且在整體 SoC 產品組合中占比仍相對有限。
Now turning to memory. Our memory business delivered another strong quarter at $212 million in revenue. This is another record quarter, up from the previous one set in Q4 2025. This represents our third consecutive quarter of revenue over $200 million, driven by robust HBM and DRAM test solutions demand and a resurgence in NAND.
接著談記憶體。我們的記憶體業務本季再度繳出強勁表現,營收達 2.12 億美元。這也是另一個創紀錄的季度,超越先前於 2025 年第四季創下的紀錄。這是我們連續第三個季度營收超過 2 億美元,主要由強勁的 HBM 與 DRAM 測試解決方案需求,以及 NAND 的復甦所帶動。
Demand signals remain strong as memory manufacturers are planning capacity additions further out in time, driving our book-to-bill ratio in the quarter over 2. Finally, turning to IST. Revenue in the quarter was $67 million, up 94% from the prior year, driven by AI-related HDD storage demand from all three major suppliers in this space.
需求訊號仍然強勁,因為記憶體製造商正規劃更長期的產能擴增,使得我們本季的接單出貨比(book-to-bill)超過 2。最後談 IST。本季營收為 6,700 萬美元,較去年同期成長 94%,主要由此領域三大供應商皆出現的 AI 相關 HDD 儲存需求所帶動。
Now on to Product Test Group. Revenue was $107 million, up 26% year over year and 33% quarter over quarter. The group experienced broad-based growth across all end markets from production board test to optical test, to defense and aerospace, to scale-up networking at our newest portfolio addition, the Multilane Test Products JV, also known as MLTP.
接著談產品測試事業群。營收為1.07億美元,年增26%、季增33%。該事業群在所有終端市場均呈現廣泛成長,從量產板級測試到光學測試、國防與航太,以及我們最新投資組合新增項目 Multilane Test Products 合資企業(亦稱 MLTP)的擴容型網路測試。
Last quarter, we announced our new production board test platform, Omnyx, which is focused on enabling earlier detection of defects that are impacting the buildout of AI data centers. The initial customer traction is strong with units already shipping in the second quarter and continued growth expected in the second half.
上季我們宣布推出新的量產板級測試平台 Omnyx,聚焦於更早偵測影響 AI 資料中心建置的缺陷。初期客戶導入動能強勁,第二季已開始出貨,且預期下半年將持續成長。
Similarly, momentum is building in MLTP as the need for high-speed I/O and data center interconnect test solutions is increasing. Both Omnyx and MLTP are examples of our wafer to AI data center strategy in action, both solutions focused on solving our customers' most critical pain points along the value chain. As a result, we anticipate their continued growth in the second half of the year.
同樣地,隨著對高速 I/O 與資料中心互連測試解決方案的需求增加,MLTP 的動能也在加速。Omnyx 與 MLTP 都是我們「從晶圓到 AI 資料中心」策略落地的例證,兩項解決方案皆聚焦於解決客戶在價值鏈各環節最關鍵的痛點。因此,我們預期它們在今年下半年將持續成長。
Robotics revenue was $100 million, up 33% year over year and 9% quarter over quarter. Electronics manufacturing and semiconductor revenue increased by 50% from Q1 and is now the largest end market segment in this group, which includes AI data centers. Our US sales increased to 32% of the Robotics overall sales. Aligned with this, our US-based manufacturing center is on track for opening later this year.
機器人業務營收為1.00億美元,年增33%、季增9%。電子製造與半導體營收較第一季成長50%,目前已成為該事業群最大的終端市場區隔,其中包含 AI 資料中心。我們在美國的銷售占機器人整體銷售比重提升至32%。與此一致,我們位於美國的製造中心正按計畫於今年稍晚啟用。
Now moving down the P&L. Strong earnings results continued in the second quarter, driven by robust AI-driven volume and favorable product mix. Gross margins for the quarter were 59.8%, up 250 basis points year over year, driven by strong Semi Test volume and product mix, while sequentially, gross margins were down 110 basis points, driven in part by one-time benefits in the first quarter.
接著往下看損益表。第二季在 AI 驅動的強勁出貨量與有利的產品組合帶動下,獲利表現持續強勁。本季毛利率為59.8%,年增250個基點,主要受惠於半導體測試(Semi Test)出貨量與產品組合強勁;但就季比而言,毛利率下滑110個基點,部分原因是第一季有一次性利益。
OpEx increased as expected, driven by more R&D and go-to-market investment for 2027 growth, plus higher variable compensation on stronger results. Finally, non-GAAP operating income was $448 million, with an operating margin of 33.7%.
營業費用(OpEx)如預期增加,主要因為為了2027年的成長而加大研發與市場推進(go-to-market)投資,以及在業績更強勁下變動薪酬提高。最後,非 GAAP 營業利益為4.48億美元,營業利益率為33.7%。
Now moving to capital allocation. Our first priority for capital continues to be reinvesting back into the business, aligned with the growth opportunities we see along the wafer to AI data center value chain. That means continued R&D investment in innovation and next-gen technologies as well as continued investments in cost of goods sold and CapEx aligned with scaling our operations and supporting our current and future customers with demo assets.
接著談資本配置。我們資本運用的首要優先事項仍是再投資於業務本身,並與我們在「從晶圓到 AI 資料中心」價值鏈上看到的成長機會一致。這意味著持續在創新與次世代技術上投入研發,同時也會持續在銷貨成本(COGS)與資本支出(CapEx)上投資,以配合營運擴張,並以展示用資產支援現有與未來客戶。
Beyond that, our capital allocation strategy remains consistent, maintain cash reserves to run the business and keep dry powder available for accretive M&A. We ended the quarter with cash and investments of $517 million, up over 30% from last quarter. We had free cash flow of $378 million in the quarter. For the first half of 2026, free cash flow was $579 million, up 150% from the prior year period.
除此之外,我們的資本配置策略維持一致:保留足夠現金以支應營運,並保有可用於具增益性併購(accretive M&A)的「乾火藥」。本季末現金與投資為5.17億美元,較上季增加逾30%。本季自由現金流為3.78億美元。2026年上半年自由現金流為5.79億美元,較去年同期成長150%。
Working capital, predominantly inventory investment, increased in support of future sales. As discussed last earnings call, capital expenditures increased $26 million from last quarter, driven by continued investments in innovation and operations scaling. We paid $20 million in dividends in the quarter, and our share buybacks were $69 million.
營運資金(主要為存貨投資)增加,以支援未來銷售。如同上次法說所述,資本支出較上季增加2,600萬美元,主要來自持續投入創新與營運擴張。本季我們支付股利2,000萬美元,庫藏股回購為6,900萬美元。
Now looking ahead to our third quarter guidance. For the quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85 to $2.15. Gross margins are expected to be in the range of 58% to 59%, reflective of product mix and new product launches.
接著展望第三季指引。我們預期本季營收介於12億至13億美元,非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)為1.85至2.15美元。毛利率預期介於58%至59%,反映產品組合與新產品上市。
Operating expenses are expected to run at approximately 29% to 30% of third-quarter sales, driven by continued investments in R&D and go-to-market. The non-GAAP operating profit rate is expected to be between 28% and 30%.
營業費用預期約占第三季銷售額的29%至30%,主要由持續投入研發與市場推進所帶動。非 GAAP 營業利益率預期介於28%至30%。
Based on current customer order visibility, we are updating our first half weighted revenue to 50% to 52% of annual revenue. The outlook for the second half has strengthened, and we've narrowed the range from three months ago with increased visibility and continued robust demand signals from our customers. The range also takes into account the timing of orders that could impact revenue timing across quarters or years.
基於目前客戶訂單能見度,我們將「上半年權重」的營收更新為占全年營收的50%至52%。下半年展望轉強,隨著能見度提升以及客戶端持續釋出強勁需求訊號,我們也較三個月前縮小了區間。該區間亦納入訂單時點可能造成跨季度或跨年度的營收認列時點影響。
To aid in your modeling, we expect growth in second half in comparison to first half in memory, auto and industrial, IST, Product Test and Robotics groups. We expect this growth will be offset by softness in mobile and order timing in compute.
為協助各位建模,我們預期下半年相較上半年,在記憶體、車用與工業、IST、產品測試與機器人事業群將呈現成長。我們預期此成長將被行動裝置市場疲弱,以及運算(compute)領域的訂單時點因素所部分抵銷。
We anticipate a resurgence in growth in 2027, driven by overall ATE TAM expansion and market share gains. Aligned with the strength in demand signal, we expect OpEx in Q4 to be comparable to Q3 guidance, positioning us for further growth in 2027.
我們預期2027年成長將再度加速,主要由整體 ATE 可服務市場(TAM)擴張與市占提升所驅動。配合需求訊號的強勁,我們預期第四季營業費用將與第三季指引大致相當,使我們能為2027年的進一步成長做好布局。
So in closing, once again, our team delivered exceptional financial results, meeting our customers' increasing AI demand needs through strong execution and a maniacal focus on customer satisfaction. We remain confident in achieving our target earnings model at an accelerated pace and look forward to providing an update in our Q4 earnings call.
最後總結,我們團隊再次交出卓越的財務成果,透過強力執行與對客戶滿意度近乎偏執的專注,滿足客戶日益增加的 AI 需求。我們仍有信心以更快速度達成目標獲利模型,並期待在第四季法說中提供最新進展。
I'll close by thanking our Teradyne team for their execution and discipline this quarter, delivering for both our customers and shareholders.
最後,我要感謝 Teradyne 團隊本季的執行力與紀律,為客戶與股東創造成果。
With that, we'll open the call for questions. Operator?
接下來我們開放提問。接線員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
(接線員指示) UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Greg, in correlating the test TAM to the WFE TAM, typically, it's been about 8%. And if I look at your TAM slide, it looks like the upper end of the range is like $16 billion to $17 billion for next year when some of us like me think that WFE is going to be $200 billion. So it seems like that number holds next year.
Greg,在把測試 TAM 與 WFE TAM 做關聯時,通常大約是8%。如果我看你們的 TAM 投影片,明年區間上緣看起來大概是160億到170億美元,而我們其中一些人(像我)認為 WFE 會是2,000億美元。所以看起來這個比例明年仍然成立。
And when I look out to 2028, I mean, some of us think WFE is going to be $250 billion. So that's like $20 billion, which is quite a bit higher than even the upper end of what this slide shows. So I guess the question is like, is 8%, like in your mind, when you think about it, is 8% the right number? And what are the puts and takes on that?
但如果我看到2028年,我是說,我們其中一些人認為 WFE 會到2,500億美元。那樣算起來就是200億美元,這比這張投影片所顯示的上緣還要高不少。所以我想問的是,在你們的想法裡,8%是不是正確的數字?而影響這個比例的正反因素(puts and takes)有哪些?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Tim. First of all, I want to thank you, the investor meetings that you helped mediate for us recently really gave us a ton of insight in terms of how people were thinking about our market and our model. And so we've been going back and doing some homework on this.
是的,Tim。首先我想謝謝你,你最近協助我們安排的投資人會議,讓我們對大家如何看待我們的市場與模型獲得很多洞見。因此我們也回去針對這點做了一些功課。
The thing that you're bringing up in terms of that 8% is a really interesting trajectory that if you look back to 2023, it was down near 4% of the total CapEx spent on test equipment. And by 2025, that had gone up to 7%. The first five months of 2026, it's 8% of total semi CapEx has been on test equipment. So it's kind of this rocket trajectory.
你提到的那個8%,如果回頭看,其實是一條非常有意思的軌跡:在2023年,測試設備占整體資本支出(CapEx)的比重接近4%。到了2025年,已上升到7%。而在2026年前五個月,半導體總資本支出中有8%用於測試設備。所以這有點像火箭式的上升軌跡。
As I said in my prepared remarks, there are some reasons why we think that is happening connected to advanced packaging. But right now, we're not sure whether it's going to settle -- that we think it's going to settle somewhere in the 7% to 9% range, but it's not going to continue to go up from there. So we're -- like I think we're kind of thinking it could settle down in the 7% to 8%, but it could go up to 9%.
如同我在事先準備的發言中所說,我們認為之所以會發生這種情況,有一些原因與先進封裝有關。但就目前而言,我們不確定它是否會趨於穩定——我們認為它會在 7% 到 9% 的區間內某處趨於穩定,但不會在此之後持續上升。所以我們——我想我們的看法是,它可能會回落並穩定在 7% 到 8% 左右,但也可能上升到 9%。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Got it. Okay. Great. And then from your slide, it looks like you think the range of like 12% to 14% is it's pretty similar to the new TAM range that Advantest put out last night because they don't include burn-in in their TAM. If I use those TAM numbers and I use your loading for the back half, which basically implies that see Q4 is basically flat QoQ.
了解。好。很好。然後從你的投影片來看,你認為大約 12% 到 14% 的區間,和 Advantest 昨晚公布的新 TAM 區間非常相近,因為他們的 TAM 不包含 burn-in(老化測試)。如果我採用那些 TAM 數字,再用你對下半年的出貨配置,基本上意味著 Q4 幾乎是 QoQ 持平。
I get your test share for this year is up just a touch, but it's still basically flat sort of in the 37% range. So the question is, when do all these new [quals] start to add to share gains? You talked about these quals. And like what's the right long-term share to use? Like is 40% your sort of aspirational share? Is 42% the right number? And like when will these start to show up in share gain?
我算出你們今年的測試市占率只小幅上升,但基本上仍大致持平在 37% 左右。所以問題是,這些新的 [quals](認證/資格)何時才會開始帶來市占提升?你談到了這些認證。那麼長期來看應該用什麼樣的市占率假設才合理?例如 40% 是你們的目標市占嗎?42% 才是正確的數字嗎?以及這些何時會開始反映在市占提升上?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So sort of taking that bit by bit. I think that the numbers that Advantest put out for the total TAM, both SoC and for memory, are kind of in the right ZIP code that -- we were surprised when they hadn't brought it up last quarter because it seemed like the writing was on the wall that the TAM was increasing pretty strongly.
我分段來回答。我認為 Advantest 對整體 TAM(包含 SoC 與記憶體)所提出的數字,大致落在合理範圍內——我們其實很驚訝他們上季沒有上調,因為看起來 TAM 強勁成長已是很明顯的趨勢。
The other commentary that they had was that they believe that they were going to continue to gain share in SoC and that they were going to lose a bit of share in memory. I have to say I agree with their commentary about memory. But I think in terms of SoC, it's probably going to be pretty flat, maybe a slight incremental gain for us year on year.
他們另外的評論是,他們相信自己會在 SoC 持續提升市占,同時在記憶體會流失一些市占。我必須說,我同意他們對記憶體的看法。但就 SoC 而言,我認為可能會相當持平,或是我們相較去年會有些微的增量提升。
So I would say that the -- we are gaining share in most of the segments of the market, but the part of the market that is growing most strongly is the part of the market where we're starting with the lowest share. The important thing for us in 2026 is that our share in the compute segment is actually stabilizing and starting to inflect upward.
因此我會說——我們在多數市場區隔都在提升市占,但成長最強勁的那一塊市場,正是我們起始市占最低的部分。對我們 2026 年而言,重要的是我們在運算(compute)區隔的市占其實正在穩定,並開始向上拐點。
So I would say, to answer your question directly, I think you'll start to see some of the effect of share change in 2027, but it's going to be gradual. It's a socket-by-socket thing, and we are riding a big upward wave.
所以直接回答你的問題,我認為你會在 2027 年開始看到一些市占變化的效果,但會是逐步的。這是一個逐 socket(插槽)推進的過程,而我們正乘著一波很大的上升浪潮。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.
Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Two from my end. Greg, when I look at the way you are laying out the company's strategy, especially how you have illustrated in your slide, it seems like you're looking at this as holistic. Starting from wafer and going all the way to the rack and data center.
我這邊有兩個問題。Greg,當我看你闡述公司的策略方式,尤其是你在投影片上的呈現,看起來你是以整體性的角度來看待。從晶圓一路到機櫃與資料中心。
And what I wanted to ask you is to what extent are you still focused on consolidating the test insertion, especially before we get to the complete package? Are you facing challenges? Or is that -- does that get lower priority and you're more focused on a holistic approach that you've laid out in your slide?
我想問的是,你們在多大程度上仍專注於整合測試插入點(test insertion),特別是在我們走到完整封裝之前?你們是否面臨挑戰?或者那件事是否優先順序降低,而你們更聚焦在投影片所描述的整體性方法?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think the -- as you look at this wafer to data center journey, there's a through line of Teradyne is a company that tests things and our Robotics help build things. And just about at every step of that process, we are a participant in an ecosystem.
我認為——當你看這段從晶圓到資料中心的旅程,有一條主線是:Teradyne 是一家做測試的公司,而我們的 Robotics 協助建造東西。而在這個流程的幾乎每一步,我們都是某個生態系的一員。
So when we're building test equipment, it's being put into test cells with material handling equipment that come from a number of different suppliers. The same thing is true at every step. And so we're trying to be very mindful that our customers appreciate what that open ecosystem has delivered.
當我們在打造測試設備時,它會被放入測試單元(test cells),並搭配來自多家不同供應商的物料搬運設備。每一步都是如此。因此我們非常注意,我們的客戶很珍視這個開放式生態系所帶來的成果。
So the best example of that ecosystem developing is really in the whole silicon photonics space that it's early days where there's individual partnerships sort of against the initial customer ramps. But ultimately, that's going to turn into the same open ecosystem where all of the -- like each test company works with all of the suppliers of material handling and vice versa.
這個生態系發展最好的例子,其實是在整個矽光子(silicon photonics)領域;目前仍在早期階段,會有一些針對初期客戶放量的個別合作夥伴關係。但最終,那會演變成同樣的開放式生態系——也就是所有的——例如每一家測試公司都會與所有物料搬運供應商合作,反之亦然。
I don't know if that answers your question. I do think that there is some potential pull-through or customer value that customers can get by getting more of their test from the same supplier. So in terms of leveraging the work that's done from wafer sort to final test to system test to burn in into the board test and beyond, there is some advantage to being able to leverage things across those boundaries.
我不確定這是否回答了你的問題。我確實認為,客戶若能從同一家供應商取得更多測試設備,可能會有一些帶動效應(pull-through)或客戶價值。因此,就把晶圓測試(wafer sort)、最終測試(final test)、系統測試(system test)、burn in(老化測試)一路延伸到板級測試(board test)及更後段而言,能跨越這些邊界去重複利用一些成果,確實有其優勢。
But our customers are quite adept at choosing the best solution at each stage. So we have to really compete for everything that we're getting. Did I get what you were talking about?
但我們的客戶非常擅長在每個階段選擇最佳解決方案。所以我們必須為我們拿到的每一個機會真正去競爭。我有理解你在問的重點嗎?
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Yeah. I'm not sure if there's a very concise answer. Is the evolving supply chain with some disruption as to how it's all going to come together is to be determined. Does that summarize your answer?
有。我不確定是否有非常精簡的答案。供應鏈正在演變,且有一些擾動,至於最後會如何整合仍有待觀察。這是否就是你答案的總結?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think the supply disruption is definitely on the mind of everybody in this space; that we're all only as strong as the weakest link in our whole supply chain and our customers feel the same way that -- and that's one of the key things that's underpinning the drive towards a dual vendor strategy from players in the compute space.
我認為供應中斷確實是這個領域每個人都在關注的事;我們的整體供應鏈只會跟最弱的一環一樣強,而我們的客戶也有同樣感受——而這也是運算領域玩家推動雙供應商策略(dual vendor strategy)的關鍵支撐因素之一。
So they are working to qualify multiple test suppliers, because they want to be sure that they're going to be able to get the capacity that they need when they need that capacity. And it's not just a matter of how big any one test supplier can get. It's also that they need to have the assurance of different suppliers to be able to do each step in the chain.
因此他們正在推動多家測試供應商的認證,因為他們希望確保在需要產能時能取得所需產能。這不只是單一測試供應商能做多大的問題。同時他們也需要不同供應商能在鏈條的每一步都具備交付能力的保證。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Got it. And I don't want to monopolize your time, but if I may ask my second question, which has to do with Robotics. This is a part of business that is not getting as much headline, but it is part of the AI is one of the verticals. Has there been any update to the strategy?
了解。我不想佔用你太多時間,但如果可以的話,我想問第二個問題,與 Robotics 有關。這塊業務沒有那麼多頭條關注,但它也是 AI 的垂直領域之一。策略上有任何更新嗎?
I know you have been expanding capacity in the US to capture some of the opportunities there. But how should we think about the trajectory of AI recovery, especially as it fits into your longer-term model?
我知道你們正在美國擴充產能,以掌握那邊的一些機會。但我們應該如何看待 AI 復甦的軌跡,特別是它如何融入你們的長期模型?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So Robotics, we believe that Robotics is positioned to essentially grow in proportion with the rest of the company over this midterm. And the important stuff that's going to drive that growth are physical AI applications.
關於 Robotics,我們相信在這個中期期間,Robotics 的成長基本上會與公司其他部分成長成正比。而推動該成長的關鍵,將是實體 AI(physical AI)應用。
Our fastest-growing segment in Robotics is really electronics, manufacturing and semiconductors. And that's like -- as Michelle says, that's part of the all things AI that the data center buildout and the desire to reshore a lot of the data center buildout is pushing automation of the assembly process and the test process with a fair amount of budget behind it.
我們 Robotics 成長最快的區隔其實是電子、製造與半導體。而那就像 Michelle 所說,屬於「所有與 AI 相關的事」的一部分:資料中心建置,以及希望將大量資料中心建置回流本土(reshore)的需求,正推動組裝流程與測試流程的自動化,且背後有相當的預算支持。
So we think that Robotics is going to basically follow the same kind of growth path as all of the chunks that are connected to data center build-out.
因此我們認為 Robotics 基本上會沿著與所有和資料中心建置相關的各個板塊相同的成長路徑前進。
Operator
Operator
CJ Muse, Cantor.
CJ Muse,Cantor。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
I guess first question on memory. You talked about growth half on half. I'm curious if you could speak to any changes in the drivers there, whether you're seeing an uplift in NAND and D5 versus HBM?
我想先問一個關於記憶體的問題。你提到成長一半對一半。我很好奇你能否談談那裡驅動因素的任何變化,是否看到 NAND 和 D5 相較於 HBM 有所上升?
And then perhaps more importantly, how are you thinking about memory into '27? And should we expect lumpiness in the first half? Or will that strength continue in the first half?
然後也許更重要的是,你們如何看待到 '27 年的記憶體?我們是否應該預期上半年會有波動性?還是那股強勁會在上半年持續?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So this year, I think the -- coming into the year, we expected that HBM was going to be significantly stronger that, if you remember, 2024 was a big, big year for HBM. 2025, there was a little bit of digestion, but it was clear from the long-term capacity add plans for HBM that '26 was going to be very strong.
所以今年,我想——在進入今年時,我們原本預期 HBM 會顯著更強;如果你還記得,2024 年是 HBM 非常、非常大的一年。2025 年會有一點消化期,但從 HBM 的長期擴產計畫來看,很明顯 '26 年會非常強。
The thing that surprised us a little bit was just how strong the DDR business is. And I think that is, to a certain extent, coupled to the resurgence in like CPU-oriented applications, so agentic AI. There's also use -- like some of the like SOCAMMs use LPDDRs that are driving that market harder than we would have expected. So the DDR market is stronger now than we thought it would be in January.
讓我們有點意外的是 DDR 業務竟然這麼強。我認為這在某種程度上與以 CPU 為導向的應用回溫有關,例如代理式 AI(agentic AI)。另外也有一些使用——像是部分 SOCAMM 使用 LPDDR,推動該市場的力道比我們預期更強。因此,DDR 市場現在比我們在一月時想的更強。
In January, we were talking a little bit about that we anticipated that we would see a strengthening in NAND, but we didn't see -- we didn't hear that from our memory customers yet that like we were waiting to hear that they're going to need more capacity in NAND because there was a gap between what data center demand was and what memory capacity planning was providing.
一月時,我們有提到我們預期會看到 NAND 轉強,但我們還沒有——還沒從記憶體客戶那邊聽到說他們需要更多 NAND 產能;因為資料中心需求與記憶體產能規劃所提供的供給之間存在落差。
Like what's different now is we actually have seen the beginning of that inflection and are actually getting pull from our customers for more NAND capacity. Looking into 2027, I don't think we are looking at particular lumpiness in memory.
現在不同的是,我們確實已經看到那個拐點的開始,而且實際上也開始收到客戶拉貨、要求更多 NAND 產能。展望 2027 年,我不認為我們會看到記憶體有特別的波動性。
I think that that's going to be -- the capacity adds are -- there's significant WFE investment increase in memory. There are fabs that are coming online. There are wafers that are being planned for output, and they are all making their test capacity add plans out into 2027 now.
我認為那將會——產能擴增——記憶體的 WFE 投資增幅很顯著。有晶圓廠將上線。有晶圓產出正在規劃,而他們現在都在把測試產能擴增計畫一路規劃到 2027 年。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Perfect. And I guess as a follow-up, if you could speak to gross margin and the guide and driving -- what's driving kind of the 130 bps headwind. You talked about kind of new products, but would be curious how much is from new products? How much is just kind of a mix shift? And then any help into thinking the trajectory into December and '27 would be very helpful.
很好。我想再追問一下,如果你能談談毛利率與指引,以及——推動那 130 個基點逆風的因素是什麼。你提到一些新產品,但我想知道有多少來自新產品?有多少只是產品組合轉移?另外,對於 12 月以及 '27 年的走勢,若能提供一些思考方向會很有幫助。
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
CJ, it's Michelle. So I'll start and then, Greg, feel free to add any additional color. So just taking a step back, let me share some context, especially for some that are new to the Teradyne story. So overall gross margins within our business tends to be variable quarter to quarter.
CJ,我是 Michelle。我先開始,然後 Greg,你也可以補充任何額外的說明。先退一步,我想分享一些背景,特別是對一些剛接觸 Teradyne 故事的人。整體而言,我們業務的毛利率往往會在每季之間有所變動。
So if you look at past like the last five years, you'll see about 400-basis point swing when you look quarter on quarter. However, when you look at kind of the annualized gross margin amount, we tend to be pretty tight within about 200 basis points.
如果你看過去例如最近五年,你會看到每季對每季大約有 400 個基點的擺動。不過,若看年度化的毛利率水準,我們通常會相當集中在約 200 個基點的範圍內。
So part of what you're seeing first half to second half is just kind of the normal quarter-on-quarter variability that we experienced. But we also did have some non-recurring non-operational impacts that were favorable in the first half that aren't repeating.
所以你看到的上半年到下半年,有一部分只是我們經歷的正常季對季波動。但我們上半年也確實有一些一次性、非營運性的有利影響,後續不會重複出現。
So as you look at going from Q2 to Q3 in the guide at 58% to 59%, part of that is product mix. So coming off the high volumes that we had in Semi Test and compute as we're starting to ramp the other parts of our portfolio. So just going back to our opening remarks, we are going to have more auto and industrial in the second half, more IST, more Robotics as well as more Product Test along with memory.
因此,當你看指引從 Q2 到 Q3 的 58% 到 59% 時,其中一部分是產品組合。也就是在半導體測試與運算(compute)高出貨量之後,我們開始拉升產品組合中其他部分。所以回到我們開場的說法,下半年我們會有更多車用與工業、更多 IST、更多機器人(Robotics),以及更多產品測試(Product Test),同時也包含記憶體。
And so all of that netted together gets us to a full-year gross margin range, which is just shy of our target earnings model, so right around the 59%. So there's going to be a product mix element. There's going to be the new product introductions. And there are going to continue to be some pricing elements as well as we know and you guys know as well, memory is going to continue to be a strain from an overall margin perspective, and we expect that that will continue into 2027.
把這些加總起來,我們得到的全年毛利率區間會略低於我們目標獲利模型,大約就在 59% 左右。所以會有產品組合的因素。也會有新產品導入。另外也會持續有一些定價因素;而且我們知道、你們也知道,記憶體從整體毛利率角度來看會持續帶來壓力,我們預期這種情況會延續到 2027 年。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券(Bank of America Securities)。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Greg, I just wanted to dig into how tight this correlation is between WFE and your growth prospects. When I look at the current year, your sales are roughly growing twice as fast as WFE growth this year. So I'm curious as to why that is. And then if I were to carry that argument into '27, if WFE does indeed grow 30%, what scenarios would make you grow faster or slower than that pace?
Greg,我想深入了解 WFE 與你們成長前景之間的相關性到底有多緊密。我看今年,你們的銷售成長大約是 WFE 成長的兩倍。所以我很好奇為什麼會這樣。另外,如果把這個論點延伸到 '27 年,若 WFE 的確成長 30%,在什麼情境下你們會成長得更快或更慢?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the correlation is -- I would say the correlation is strong over kind of three- to five-year periods; that it's not at all correlated when you're down to a quarter level. And when you look at the annual data, when we sort of drew out the charts ourselves, we saw that there can be like a year lag between a significant increase in WFE and when it echoes in the impact in the ATE space.
相關性——我會說在三到五年的期間內相關性很強;但如果你把時間尺度縮到單季,幾乎完全不相關。而當你看年度資料時,我們自己把圖表拉出來看,發現 WFE 大幅增加與其在 ATE 領域反映出影響之間,可能會有一年左右的落後期。
So it's -- there's like a time lag in the correlation as well. So I think it's -- like that's why we're saying it's not a great year-by-year predictor, but it does -- the thing that it does is it gives us confidence that we're not -- we were trying to figure out whether 2026 was like an unusually strong, non-sustainable market.
所以——相關性也存在時間落後。因此我認為——這也是為什麼我們說它不是很好的逐年預測工具;但它確實——它帶給我們的,是信心:我們當時在判斷 2026 年是否是一個異常強、不可持續的市場。
And when we were looking at the WFE data, it certainly gave us confidence that we were looking at something that was different than what we've seen in prior cycles; that there's this very heavy lean into WFE investment, and that's going to drag things up. So that's the correlation part.
當我們看 WFE 資料時,它確實讓我們有信心:我們看到的是不同於以往循環的情況;也就是 WFE 投資非常明顯地大幅傾斜,這會把整體拉上去。所以這就是相關性的部分。
Could you repeat the second part of your question? I want to make sure that I get it right.
你可以重複一下問題的第二部分嗎?我想確保我理解正確。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Sure. So if we look at 2027 and the expectations are for WFE growth to be, say, 30%-plus year on year, under what scenarios would ATE TAM or Teradyne for that matter, over or undergrow that growth rate?
當然。如果我們看 2027 年,市場預期 WFE 年增可能是 30% 以上,在什麼情境下 ATE TAM 或就 Teradyne 而言,會高於或低於那個成長率?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think, right now, we have -- like we're outpacing WFE growth in '26. So if you draw the line and sort of use the WFE spend to project what the 2026 TAM should be, it should be smaller than that model would predict.
我認為,現在我們——例如在 '26 年,我們的成長速度超過 WFE 成長。所以如果你畫一條線、用 WFE 支出來推估 2026 年的 TAM,那麼實際上它應該會比那個模型所預測的更小。
Looking ahead to 2027, I think that WFE is essentially catching up a bit. And the way you sort of think about that in the statistics is that the percentage of semi cap that is test equipment has gone from 7%. And so far in 2026, it's at 8%.
展望 2027 年,我認為 WFE 基本上是在某種程度上追趕上來。而你從統計上可以這樣思考:半導體資本支出中屬於測試設備的占比原本是 7%。而到目前為止在 2026 年,這個占比是 8%。
It's possible that next year, that could revert down to 6%, 7% or so. So I would expect that we're going to see an increased TAM in 2027, but we're still trying to work out kind of whether that percentage is going to stay flat or how far it will go down.
明年有可能會回落到 6%、7% 左右。所以我預期 2027 年 TAM 會增加,但我們仍在釐清那個占比是否會維持不變,或會下滑到什麼程度。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
I guess my question is to why. Why would it go down?
我想我的問題是為什麼。為什麼它會下滑?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Just, it's the time lag. The thing is -- this is correlation, not causation, right? Or well, there is causation, but there's a time lag. So when people buy fab equipment, the money changes hands about a year before the wafers start coming out of the factory because they have to go into front-end facilities that are being built and commissioned and piloted.
就是時間落差。重點是——這是相關性,不是因果關係,對吧?或者說,確實有因果,但存在時間落差。所以當人們購買晶圓廠設備時,資金大約在晶圓開始從工廠產出的一年前就已經完成交付,因為設備必須先進入正在建置、驗收並試產的前段製程廠房。
Once those wafers are coming out, there's about a -- our lead times are in the 16-week-ish range. So it's three quarters on from when the revenue for the fab equipment has happened to when the revenue for the test equipment happens. And there's also unpredictability about the required test intensity on a part-by-part basis.
一旦那些晶圓開始產出,我們的交期大約在16週左右。所以從晶圓廠設備的營收發生,到測試設備的營收發生,大約要再往後推三個季度。而且在逐顆(逐料號)的層級上,所需的測試強度也存在不確定性。
So you can have situations where, due to yield issues or quality issues, there's significant over buying in ATE or you can have other cases where there's higher efficiency test time reductions. So you're not going to see a tight-tight link between this in any particular period, but it's more of an overtime guidance.
因此你可能會遇到一些情況:因為良率問題或品質問題,ATE 會出現顯著的超額採購;也可能有其他情況是測試時間效率提升、測試時間縮短。所以你不會在任何特定期間看到兩者之間非常緊密的連動,但它更像是一種長期趨勢的指引。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
And for my follow-up, Greg, I'm curious to understand your position when it comes to CPU, server CPU testing, right? That has become a new area of growth, right, $200 billion-plus type TAM that different people have mentioned.
另外追問一下,Greg,我想了解你在 CPU、伺服器 CPU 測試這塊的看法,對吧?那已經成為新的成長領域,對吧?有些人提到那是 2,000 億美元以上的 TAM。
So I know historically, Teradyne has been more exposed to ARM rather than the x86 ecosystem. So how do you see that developing? And if ARM CPUs take share, does that help Teradyne also take share in that market?
我知道歷史上 Teradyne 相對更偏向 ARM,而不是 x86 生態系。那你怎麼看這個發展?如果 ARM CPU 取得市占,是否也會幫助 Teradyne 在那個市場取得更多市占?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we certainly are seeing increased strength in CPU business. We definitely benefit more like as the share mix of server CPU shifts towards ARM, that gives us a greater share gain opportunity right now. But we are working hard to try to gain share in the x86 space as well. But I think it's a fair assumption that if that market twists more towards ARM, that positions Teradyne for greater share gain in the compute space.
是的。所以我們確實看到 CPU 業務的強度在提升。當伺服器 CPU 的市占組合往 ARM 轉移時,我們目前確實會更受惠,因為這會帶來更大的市占提升機會。但我們也在努力嘗試在 x86 領域取得市占。不過我認為可以合理假設,如果那個市場更偏向 ARM,會讓 Teradyne 在運算領域有更大的市占提升空間。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
I have two of them too. The first one, I just want to follow up on the CPU side. I understand you're more exposed to the ARM ecosystem, but it seems like the test intensity of the CPUs is only 25% of that of a GPU. So is that fair to assume that the merchant GPU opportunities are larger even with one customer than trying to get more on the CPU test side?
我也有兩個問題。第一個,我想延續 CPU 的話題。我理解你們在 ARM 生態系的曝險較高,但看起來 CPU 的測試強度只有 GPU 的 25%。所以是否可以合理假設:即使只有一個客戶,商用(merchant)GPU 的機會也比在 CPU 測試端爭取更多份額要大?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, the -- it's a great question, Krish. So the accelerator market is definitely the one that has the highest test intensity. And I think your 1:4 ratio is probably not far off. I think that's a reasonable assumption. The key thing is the ratio of accelerators to CPUs. So as the number of CPUs increases, that becomes more important.
嗯——這是個很好的問題,Krish。所以加速器市場確實是測試強度最高的。我覺得你提到的 1:4 比例大概差不多。我認為那是合理的假設。關鍵在於加速器與 CPU 的數量比例。因此,當 CPU 的數量增加時,這點就變得更重要。
The other thing that I think is -- like one of the ways that we're looking at this is there are a number of bottleneck resources through the supply chain, the supply of substrates for CoWoS, the supply of HBM memories and basic advanced node fab capacity. And our customers are trying to optimize the utilization of what allocation they get of those scarce resources.
另外我認為——我們看待這件事的一個角度是:供應鏈中存在一些瓶頸資源,例如 CoWoS 用的載板供應、HBM 記憶體供應,以及基本的先進製程晶圓廠產能。而我們的客戶正試圖最佳化他們所分配到的這些稀缺資源的使用率。
And the test suppliers, Teradyne and our competitors, are positioned to -- like no matter what, all of the wafers that get fab are going to need to get tested. And the share between VIP accelerators, merchant GPU and CPU, all of those are places where we are positioned to gain share.
而測試供應商——Teradyne 以及我們的競爭對手——所處的位置是:不管怎樣,所有被製造出來的晶圓都需要被測試。而在 VIP 加速器、商用 GPU 與 CPU 之間的份額分配上,這些都是我們有機會提升市占的領域。
And so we are not overly hung up about whether CPUs grow faster than GPUs because at the end of the day, most of the test seconds are at the wafer level and the same number of wafers are going to be produced.
因此我們不會過度糾結於 CPU 是否比 GPU 成長更快,因為到頭來,大多數的測試秒數是在晶圓層級,而同樣數量的晶圓終究會被生產出來。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Got it. Very helpful, Greg. And then as a quick follow-up, I had a question on the silicon photonics testing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the general view is that Advantest is strong in Insertion 1, and you're more strong in Insertion 2. A, is that correct? And part B of the question is there is some view in the industry that Insertion 2 can be skipped if you have known good die and you're going to dice it? Any thoughts on that would be helpful.
了解。非常有幫助,Greg。接著快速追問,我有一個關於矽光子測試的問題。如果我沒理解錯,一般看法是 Advantest 在 Insertion 1 較強,而你們在 Insertion 2 較強。A,這樣說正確嗎?B,業界也有一種看法是:如果你有 known good die,且你要把它切割(dice),那 Insertion 2 可能可以跳過?你對此有什麼想法都會很有幫助。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So I want to tell you a funny anecdote. We were having a conversation with a customer in this space. And we were a good 15 minutes into the conversation before we discovered that we and the customer had an entirely different definition of what Insertion 2 was.
當然。我想跟你分享一個有趣的小插曲。我們曾和這個領域的一位客戶聊天。結果我們聊了大概 15 分鐘才發現,我們和客戶對 Insertion 2 的定義完全不同。
So like there's certainly a pilot customer in this space that is ramping, and there's a certain definition of the different test insertions for that customer. But it's so early in the maturation of that production process that I think it's a mistake to draw broad conclusions.
所以,這個領域確實有一個正在爬坡的試點客戶,而對那位客戶而言,不同測試插入點(test insertions)有其特定定義。但由於該量產流程仍處於非常早期的成熟階段,我認為現在就下廣泛結論是個錯誤。
But directly to your question, getting a known good die at Insertion 1 doesn't help you all that much in terms of the quality of the optical engine die that you need to attach to the CPO. The production steps between Insertion 1 and Insertion 2 are the -- bonding the electronics IC to the photonics IC wafer and then applying the lens -- there's a polymer lens that gets applied on top of the photonics to make the connection with -- to where the FAU will connect to the device.
但直接回答你的問題:在 Insertion 1 取得 known good die,對於你需要貼附到 CPO 的光學引擎晶粒品質而言,幫助其實不大。Insertion 1 到 Insertion 2 之間的製程步驟包括——把電子 IC 與光子 IC 晶圓進行鍵合,然後再貼上透鏡——會在光子元件上方塗佈一個聚合物透鏡,以便與——也就是 FAU 將與裝置連接的位置——建立連接。
And the types of optical testing that you can do with Insertion 1 are limited because the lens assembly is a critical part of the optical path. So many of the loss and polarization tests that you need to do can't be done until you have the completed wafer.
而在 Insertion 1 能做的光學測試類型是有限的,因為透鏡組裝是光路中的關鍵部分。因此,你需要做的許多損耗與偏振測試,必須等到晶圓完成後才能進行。
The real question on our mind is how much of that testing needs to happen at the wafer level post bonding and how much of it can be deferred to do once those optical engines are singulated. But you can't do everything that you need to do for -- to validate the quality of the device at Insertion 1.
我們真正關心的問題是:這些測試有多少必須在鍵合後於晶圓層級完成,又有多少可以延後到那些光學引擎被分割成單顆之後再做。但你無法在 Insertion 1 就完成驗證裝置品質所需的一切。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
Jim Schneider,高盛。
James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst
James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst
Maybe following up on the -- on your prior comments and last question, Greg. You talked about the sort of CPO TAM alone being $300 million to $700 million, I believe, in 2028. Obviously, that's a very wide range. I'm sort of curious how you would think about maybe what the size could be or likely be next year, if at all, or if material?
也許延續你先前的評論和上一個問題,Greg。你提到單就 CPO 的 TAM 到 2028 年大約是 3 億到 7 億美元,我記得是這樣。顯然那是一個非常寬的區間。我有點好奇,你會如何看待明年可能的規模——如果有的話,或是否會具備實質性?
And maybe talk about the sort of certainty level you have in your overall networking business growing sort of strong double digits over the next three years on a compounding basis or at least every year.
另外也請談談:你對整體網通業務在未來三年以複利方式、或至少每年都能維持強勁雙位數成長的把握程度大概如何。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So the wide range, the $300 million to $700 million in 2028 is -- that's our attempt to be as honest as we can be. Like we really are looking at a number of different market sources in terms of the number of CPO ports that are going to be produced, and they're all over the map.
好。所以那個很寬的區間——2028 年 3 億到 7 億美元——是我們盡可能誠實的嘗試。我們確實在參考多個市場來源來估算將會生產的 CPO 埠口數量,而這些數據差異非常大。
And so we're -- it really comes down to how quickly the initial higher volume ramps of CPO primarily for scale out achieve success over the 2027 timeframe. That's what's going to drive that 2028 TAM towards the -- if that goes well, then it will drive it towards the $700 million. If it doesn't, it will still be closer to the $300 million.
因此我們——歸根結底取決於:在 2027 年這段期間內,主要用於 scale-out 的 CPO 初期較高出貨量爬坡能多快取得成功。這將推動 2028 年的 TAM 朝向——如果進展順利,就會把它推向 7 億美元。如果不順利,它仍會更接近 3 億美元。
Next year, I think we're probably like probably aiming towards more of the low side of that $300 million. So if you draw a line from the $100 million to the $300 million next year, kind of the low end would be in the $200 million range. I don't think there is as much upside next year as there is upside in 2028.
明年,我認為我們大概會更偏向那個 3 億美元區間的低端。所以如果你從 1 億美元畫一條線到明年的 3 億美元,低端大概會落在 2 億美元左右。我不認為明年的上行空間有 2028 年那麼大。
Now your last question was around networking and networking in general, is an area where we have a lot of confidence of better -- like we're talking about transistors growing at 15% to 20% over this midterm. We feel pretty strongly that the networking TAM is going to be growing proportionate to that.
你最後一個問題是關於網路,以及一般而言的網路領域;這是我們非常有信心的一塊——例如我們談到在這個中期,電晶體將以 15% 到 20% 的速度成長。我們相當確信網路 TAM 會按比例成長。
So -- and it's not just CPO. It's copper connections going from cable to backplane; pluggables are still growing and will transition not just to CPO, there's NPO and XPO stages along that path. And so Teradyne's strategy is really to make sure that we're positioned to benefit from the growth in all of those segments.
所以——而且不只是 CPO。還包括銅連接從纜線走向背板;可插拔模組仍在成長,且未來的轉換不僅是到 CPO,沿途還有 NPO 與 XPO 階段。因此 Teradyne 的策略就是確保我們的布局能從所有這些區隔的成長中受益。
So that's why we did Quantifi. That's why we did the MLTP JV. And it's why we are in the market with the Photon 100 because we think that CPO is going -- is the technology of the future, but there is so much growth in just basic networking that we really want to make sure that we're covering all the modes.
所以這就是我們收購 Quantifi 的原因。這也是我們成立 MLTP 合資企業(JV)的原因。也因此我們推出 Photon 100 並進入市場,因為我們認為 CPO 將會——將是未來的技術,但基礎網路本身就有非常多的成長,我們確實希望確保我們涵蓋所有模式。
The other thing that I'll say is behind all of that is the networking silicon, the switch silicon. And Teradyne has a terrific position in that market that we think will grow over the midterm independent of the physical layer.
另外我想說的是,在這一切背後是網路矽晶,也就是交換器矽晶。Teradyne 在該市場擁有非常出色的地位,我們認為即使不考慮實體層,中期也會成長。
James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst
James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst
That's very helpful color, Greg. And then maybe just a quick clarification for Michelle. Relative to your prior commentary on gross margin sort of variability, I just want to make sure that you don't see anything in 2027, whether that be customer mix or product mix, et cetera, that would drive a material headwind to gross margins on a year-over-year basis?
這些補充資訊非常有幫助,Greg。接著也許給 Michelle 一個快速釐清。就你先前對毛利率波動性的評論而言,我只是想確認:你是否看不到 2027 年有任何因素——不論是客戶組合或產品組合等——會在年對年基礎上對毛利率造成實質性的逆風?
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
Michelle Turner - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer
No. It's going to be pretty consistent as we talked about in terms of the ranges annually. And it will really come down to, Jim, the things that we noted, it will come down to product mix. where compute is going to be heavy within the year, along with the rest of the portfolio growing. So we're not anticipating any fundamental changes in gross margin.
不會。就我們談到的年度區間而言,會相當一致。而且真正取決於,Jim,如同我們提到的那些因素,將取決於產品組合:在一年之內,運算(compute)會占比較重,同時其餘產品組合也會成長。因此我們不預期毛利率會有任何根本性的變化。
Operator
Operator
Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.
Shane Brett,摩根士丹利。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
My first question is on memory. So if I assume your memory test revenue growth half-on-half, we get to full-year growth north of 70%. Slide 6 of your presentation deck shows the memory test TAM growing at approximately half of the rate of memory bit growth.
我的第一個問題是關於記憶體。所以如果我假設你們的記憶體測試營收呈現下半年相較上半年成長,那我們全年成長會超過 70%。你們簡報投影片 6 顯示,記憶體測試 TAM 的成長大約是記憶體位元(bit)成長率的一半。
Two-part question here. But one is how should we think about memory test growing 2x bit growth this year? But also how relevant is test growing at half the run rate of bits given the test intensity of HBM and just extremely low NAND in the last few years?
這裡有兩個問題。第一是,今年我們應該如何看待記憶體測試成長達到位元成長的 2 倍?第二是,考量到 HBM 的測試強度,以及過去幾年 NAND 極度低迷,在這種情況下「測試以位元成長的一半速度成長」這個說法到底有多相關?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think I'm going to need to take that question offline. You're interpreting a lot of information from that chart that I'm not sure we were intending to communicate. So the chart shows sort of the bit growth trajectory and the ATE TAM history. We weren't trying to project the memory ATE TAM.
我想我需要私下再回覆這個問題。你從那張圖表解讀了很多資訊,但我不確定那是我們原本想傳達的內容。那張圖表顯示的是位元成長的軌跡以及 ATE TAM 的歷史。我們並不是要去預測記憶體 ATE TAM。
So -- but I guess to answer the principles behind what you're saying, in memory, there is a correlation between bit growth and ATE, but it's not as -- like there's a game, there's a factor involved in that because the -- in memory test, the part of the market where you test every bit is served by much lower priced, less differentiated equipment than the final test part of the market.
所以——不過若要回應你所說背後的原則,在記憶體領域,位元成長與 ATE 之間確實有相關性,但並不是——中間還有一個因素在起作用,因為——在記憶體測試中,那種需要測每一個位元的市場區塊,通常由價格更低、差異化更小的設備所服務,相較於最終測試(final test)的市場區塊。
So there's a big chunk of the market that follows bit growth. There's also a part of the market that follows technology shifts, the HBM3 to HBM4, DDR5, DDR6 and then next generations of flash technology. So memory has sort of two flywheels. One is bit growth and the other is technology change, but it is also a very efficient test market where -- just in terms of the overall size.
因此市場中有很大一塊會跟著位元成長走。也有一部分市場會跟著技術轉換走,例如 HBM3 到 HBM4、DDR5、DDR6,以及下一代快閃記憶體技術。所以記憶體大致上有兩個飛輪。一個是位元成長,另一個是技術變革;但它同時也是一個非常有效率的測試市場——就整體規模而言。
Right now, the SoC TAM is 5x the size of the memory TAM even though the memory revenues are much -- have caught up because of ASP changes. So there's a lot of things going on. Our take is that the memory TAM is likely positioned for similar growth rates over the midterm that the SoC TAM is.
目前 SoC TAM 的規模是記憶體 TAM 的 5 倍,儘管記憶體營收因 ASP 變化而大幅——已經追上來。所以有很多事情同時在發生。我們的看法是,記憶體 TAM 在中期很可能具備與 SoC TAM 類似的成長率。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Understood. And for my follow-up, so you talked about auto industrial being better half on half. Just can you talk a little bit about what the path back to prior peak would look like? I would also appreciate if you could talk about how much of prior peak was China driven, if there's sort of an element of China localization risk, but also some of the tailwinds you're seeing just on the back of the Infineon strategic partnership back in January of 2025.
了解。那我的追問是,你提到車用與工業在下半年會比上半年更好。能否談談回到先前高峰的路徑大概會是什麼樣子?也希望你能談談先前高峰有多少是由中國驅動、是否存在中國在地化風險的因素,以及你們在 2025 年 1 月與英飛凌(Infineon)策略合作夥伴關係之後所看到的一些順風。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think we are -- it's likely '27 is going to be up to or exceeding prior peaks in that space. We haven't done all of the work, but that's my gut feeling around that. There's some China localization, like I would say that our China power mix between prior peak and now is kind of about the same that we're in that market. There is some local competition, but there are also some players that we're doing quite well with.
所以我認為——很可能到 '27 年,該領域會回到或超過先前的高峰。我們還沒有把所有工作都做完,但這是我直覺上的感受。確實有一些中國在地化;例如我會說,相較於先前高峰到現在,我們在中國的電源(power)組合大致差不多,仍在那個市場裡。有一些本地競爭,但也有一些客戶我們做得相當不錯。
In the power market overall, there -- the part of that market where the Infineon deal that we did is most helpful is in wide-bandgap discrete test. So that's a smaller chunk of that market, but one that is expected to grow robustly over this period of time. And I would say that the technologies and the people that we have in that group is positioning us to establish a real leadership position in the testing of wide-bandgap discretes.
就整體電源市場而言——我們與英飛凌所做的那筆合作最有幫助的部分,是在寬能隙(wide-bandgap)分離元件(discrete)的測試。那是該市場中較小的一塊,但預期在這段期間會強勁成長。我也會說,我們在該團隊所擁有的技術與人才,正讓我們有條件在寬能隙分離元件測試上建立真正的領導地位。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we've reached our allotted time for questions. This will conclude today's Teradyne second-quarter 2026 earnings call and webcast. You may now disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.
謝謝。此時,我們已到達提問的預定時間。今天的 Teradyne 2026 年第二季財報電話會議與網路直播到此結束。您現在可以掛線,祝您有美好的一天。