泰瑞達 (TER) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Judy and I will be your conference facilitator.

我叫朱迪，我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Teradyne, Inc. fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings release conference call.

此時，我謹歡迎大家參加泰瑞達第四季和財年財報發布電話會議。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Tom Newman with Teradyne, Inc.

我現在想將會議轉交給泰瑞達公司 (Teradyne, Inc.) 的湯姆紐曼 (Tom Newman) 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Judy.

謝謝你，朱迪。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results.

大家早安，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。

I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Mike Bradley and our Chief Financial Officer, Greg Beecher.

今天早上我們的執行長 Mike Bradley 和財務長格雷格比徹 (Greg Beecher) 也加入了我的行列。

Following our opening remarks, we will provide with details of our performance for the fourth quarter for our fiscal year 2004, as well as our outlook for the first quarter of 2005.

在我們的開場白之後，我們將詳細介紹 2004 財年第四季的業績，以及我們對 2005 年第一季的展望。

First, however, I'd like to address some administrative issues.

不過，首先我想解決一些行政問題。

Teradyne's press release containing our financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year of 2004 was sent out by a business wire and was posted on our web site yesterday evening.

包含我們第四季度和 2004 財年財務業績的泰瑞達新聞稿已透過商業電訊發出，並於昨天晚上發佈在我們的網站上。

If anyone needs a copy, please call Teradyne's Corporate Relations office at 617-422-2221 and we will provide you with one.

如果有人需要副本，請致電 617-422-2221 聯繫泰瑞達企業關係辦公室，我們將為您提供一份。

This call is being simultaneously webcast over our website at www.teradyne.com.

本次電話會議同時透過我們的網站 www.teradyne.com 進行網路直播。

A replay of this call will be provided on our website starting at noon today Eastern time.

從東部時間今天中午開始，我們的網站上將提供本次電話會議的重播。

If it's more convenient, you can also access a replay of the call by dialing 1-800-642-1687 in the U.S. and Canada or 706-645-9291 outside of the U.S. and Canada and providing the pass code 3113595.

如果更方便，您還可以透過撥打 1-800-642-1687（美國和加拿大）或 706-645-9291（美國和加拿大境外）並提供密碼 3113595 來觀看通話重播。

Replays from both sources will be available through the second of February.

兩個來源的重播將持續到 2 月 2 日。

It is our objective to use this call to comply with the requirements of SEC Regulation FD.

我們的目標是利用此呼籲來遵守 SEC FD 法規的要求。

Therefore, investors should accept the contents of this call as the official guidance from the Company for the first quarter of 2005 and beyond.

因此，投資者應接受本次電話會議的內容作為公司 2005 年第一季及以後的官方指引。

If at any time we communicate any material changes to this guidance, it is our intent to do so simultaneously to all investors to the best of our ability.

如果我們在任何時候對本指南進行任何重大變更，我們都會盡最大努力同時向所有投資者通報。

Investors should note that only Mike Bradley, Greg Beecher and I are authorized to supply company guidance.

投資者應注意，只有邁克布拉德利 (Mike Bradley)、格雷格比徹 (Greg Beecher) 和我有權提供公司指導。

The matters that we discuss today, other than historical information, include forward-looking statements relating to future financial performance and other performance expectations; changes in the company's business; statements as to inventory, bookings, backlog, orders, shipments, pricing, design-ins and demand for our products; capital spending and other opinions of management.

我們今天討論的事項，除歷史資訊外，還包括與未來財務表現和其他業績預期有關的前瞻性陳述；公司業務改變；有關我們產品的庫存、預訂、積壓、訂單、出貨、定價、設計和需求的聲明；資本支出和管理層的其他意見。

These forward-looking statements are made under the Federal securities laws.

這些前瞻性陳述是根據聯邦證券法做出的。

Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

請投資人注意，前瞻性陳述既不是承諾，也不是保證，而是涉及可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Some of those risks and uncertainties are detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including but not limited to, our From 10-Q filed on November 12, 2004.

其中一些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有詳細說明，包括但不限於我們於 2004 年 11 月 12 日提交的 From 10-Q。

We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date they are made and we incorporate here the discussion of those factors.

我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表發布當日的情況，我們在此納入對這些因素的討論。

Teradyne disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements to reflect any change in expectations or in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements may be based, or that may affect the likelihood that actual results will differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

泰瑞達不承擔公開更新或修改任何此類聲明的義務，以反映任何此類聲明所依據的預期或事件、條件或情況的任何變化，或可能影響實際結果與中所述結果不同的可能性。

We also want to make clear to investors that our prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G regarding Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP.

我們也想向投資者明確表示，我們準備的評論將按照 SEC G 條例有關公認會計原則 (GAAP) 的要求進行呈現。

All financial metrics presented by us during this call will be provided as GAAP numbers, except the quarterly breakeven numbers targeted for the later part of 2004, which will be at the profit before interest and taxes line, or PBIT line, and will also exclude any possible restructuring charges for future stock-based compensation charges.

我們在本次電話會議期間提供的所有財務指標都將以GAAP 數字形式提供，但2004 年下半年目標季度盈虧平衡數字除外，該數字將按息稅前利潤線(PBIT) 計算，並且還將排除任何未來基於股票的補償費用可能會產生重組費用。

In accordance with SEC regulations, investors will find information relating to the breakeven numbers on the Company's web site at www.teradyne.com by clicking on investors and then selecting the GAAP to pro forma reconciliation link.

根據 SEC 規定，投資者可以在公司網站 www.teradyne.com 上找到與盈虧平衡數字相關的信息，方法是點擊投資者，然後選擇 GAAP 預估調節連結。

And finally, you should know that between now and the next conference call, we will be participating in the following investor events -- the Goldman Sachs Technology Investment Symposium in Phoenix February 23 through 25; the Credit Suisse First Boston Global Semiconductor and Capital Equipment Conference in Miami, March 2 through 4 and the Morgan Stanley Semiconductor and Systems Conference in Laguna, California, March 8 and 9.

最後，您應該知道，從現在到下一次電話會議，我們將參加以下投資者活動：2 月 23 日至 25 日在鳳凰城舉行的高盛科技投資研討會；瑞士信貸首屆波士頓全球半導體和資本設備會議於 3​​ 月 2 日至 4 日在邁阿密舉行，摩根士丹利半導體和系統會議於 3​​ 月 8 日至 9 日在加利福尼亞州拉古納舉行。

Now, let's get on with the rest of the agenda.

現在，讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。

First, our CEO Mike Bradley will review the state of the Company and the industry, will review our performance for the fourth quarter 2004 and will provide guidance for the first quarter of 2005.

首先，我們的執行長 Mike Bradley 將回顧公司和行業的狀況，回顧我們 2004 年第四季的業績，並為 2005 年第一季提供指導。

Then our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Greg Beecher will review the details of our financial performance in the fourth quarter and for the fiscal year and will provideruidance for the first quarter 2005.

然後，我們的副總裁兼財務長 Greg Beecher 將審查我們第四季度和本財年的財務業績詳情，並為 2005 年第一季提供指導。

We will then answer your questions.

然後我們將回答您的問題。

For scheduling purposes, you should note that we intend to end this call after one hour.

出於安排目的，您應該注意，我們打算在一小時後結束本次通話。

Mike?

麥克風？

Thanks Tom and good morning everybody.

謝謝湯姆，大家早安。

We finished 2004 with quarterly sales of 377 million, earnings-per-share of 2 cents and orders of 298 million.

2004 年，我們的季度銷售額為 3.77 億美元，每股收益為 2 美分，訂單為 2.98 億份。

Bookings were up slightly, about 5 percent overall and about 16 percent in SemiTest due to year-end service contract renewals, but they remain well below shipments.

由於年底服務合約續約，預訂量略有上升，整體成長約 5%，SemiTest 成長約 16%，但仍遠低於出貨量。

There are no signals of any sharp rebound in our markets as customers remain very cautious in their buying.

由於客戶的購買仍然非常謹慎，我們的市場沒有出現任何大幅反彈的訊號。

There were some good points to the quarter as we saw strength in the FLEX product line and also in Assembly Test, Diagnostic Solutions and Broadband Test.

本季有一些亮點，我們看到了 FLEX 產品線以及組裝測試、診斷解決方案和寬頻測試方面的實力。

We experienced some major softening however in Connection Systems as our customers worked through a series of inventory overages.

然而，隨著我們的客戶經歷了一系列庫存過剩，我們在連接系統方面經歷了一些重大的軟化。

The continued low level of orders is clearly the biggest short-term issue, so before we dive into the details of the quarter, I'd like to describe how we're playing the current situation.

持續的低水準訂單顯然是最大的短期問題，因此在我們深入了解本季的細節之前，我想先描述一下我們如何應對當前的情況。

First, we reacted immediately to reduce costs when orders turned down sharply in Q3.

首先，當第三季訂單大幅下降時，我們立即做出反應，降低成本。

In that quarter, we cut back on our internal capacity and pulled on our new set of supply chain levers, rapidly (technical difficulty) subcontractor capacity and the inflow of material.

在那個季度，我們削減了內部產能，並利用了新的供應鏈槓桿、快速（技術難度）分包商產能和材料流入。

Our strategy to variablize much of our capacity and manage a fast reaction supply chain has as a result proven itself over the past five months.

我們改變大部分產能和管理快速反應供應鏈的策略在過去五個月中得到了證明。

Second, we've taken actions in both the fourth and first quarters in two of our non-SemiTest businesses that should reduce our breakeven by nearly $10 million a quarter.

其次，我們在第四季和第一季對兩個非 SemiTest 業務採取了行動，這將使我們每季的盈虧平衡點減少近 1000 萬美元。

In Connection Systems, we have accelerated our low-cost manufacturing initiative and downsized our manufacturing footprint in the U.S.

在連接系統領域，我們加快了低成本製造計劃，並縮小了在美國的製造規模。

Our U.S. operations will become the epicenter of our design capability and our future growth in volume manufacturing will occur in low-cost regions.

我們的美國業務將成為我們設計能力的中心，而我們未來大量製造的成長將發生在低成本地區。

In our Assembly Test operation, we've lowered the fixed cost structure in our commercial board test business with the objective of achieving double-digit operating profitability during 2005.

在我們的組裝測試業務中，我們降低了商業板測試業務的固定成本結構，目標是在 2005 年實現兩位數的營運利潤。

Now onto what we're not doing.

現在談談我們沒有做的事情。

We're not cutting back in SemiTest R&D.

我們不會削減半測試研發。

Although SemiTest orders remain depressed and although that business will be in the red in the first quarter, we are continuing to make the R&D investments that helped us gain 4 or 5 points of SOC test market share in 2004.

儘管 SemiTest 訂單仍然低迷，而且該業務在第一季將出現虧損，但我們仍在繼續進行研發投資，這幫助我們在 2004 年獲得了 4 或 5 個百分點的 SOC 測試市場份額。

Let me explain our strategy in this market with a few numbers as background.

讓我用一些數字作為背景來解釋我們在這個市場的策略。

As I mentioned in the last conference call, our SemiTest business is sized to break even on a pro forma basis at about $210 million per quarter.

正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的 SemiTest 業務規模按預計每季約 2.1 億美元實現收支平衡。

That level has not change much over the course of 2004 after being reduced from a peak of $275 million per quarter.

該水準在從每季 2.75 億美元的峰值有所下降後，在 2004 年期間沒有發生太大變化。

So why size it 210 million?

那為什麼要將規模定為 2.1 億呢？

Let me go over some rough math with you.

讓我和你一起做一些粗略的數學計算。

If we assume an SOC device market of $150 billion and a buy rate of 2 percent for Test, which were the numbers for 2004, the SOC test market is about $3 billion.

如果我們假設 SOC 裝置市場為 1500 億美元，測試購買率為 2%（這是 2004 年的數字），那麼 SOC 測試市場約為 30 億美元。

We currently have just over one-third of that market.

目前我們佔據了該市場三分之一以上的份額。

The $1 billion per-year tester business gives us a baseline profit level and the leverage to have a sustainable R&D investment; it should continue to allow us to gain market share going forward.

每年 10 億美元的測試儀業務為我們提供了基準利潤水準和永續研發投資的槓桿；它應該繼續讓我們獲得未來的市場份額。

Through 2004, that has been the case.

自2004年以來，情況一直如此。

We're going to keep the R&D engine in place now and drive our FLEX product hard into new markets and new applications.

我們現在將保持研發引擎不變，並將我們的 FLEX 產品努力推向新市場和新應用。

My reasoning is straightforward.

我的推理很簡單。

If the bearer's (ph) point of view turns out to be correct, the semi test market will grow much more slowly in the future.

如果持有者（ph）的觀點被證明是正確的，那麼半測試市場未來的成長將會慢得多。

Therefore, the best avenue to assure continued in the business is to grow market share.

因此，確保業務持續發展的最佳途徑是擴大市場份額。

Every point of market share in SOC test is worth $25 to $35 million in annual sales over the next couple of years.

SOC 測試中的每一點市場份額都相當於未來幾年 2500 至 3500 萬美元的年銷售額。

Companies with below critical mass market share will be hard pressed to afford the level of R&D spending necessary to capture those share points.

大眾市佔率低於臨界水準的公司將很難承擔獲得這些份額所需的研發支出水準。

The share gain potential from our R&D trust now will pay back many times over in the future.

現在我們對研發的信任所帶來的份額成長潛力將在未來得到數倍的回報。

Now having said all of that, I'm not backing off on our plan to get the Company's pro forma breakeven down to the $330 million level per quarter.

話雖如此，我並沒有放棄我們將公司預計盈虧平衡點降至每季 3.3 億美元水準的計畫。

As I said, we cut expenses last week for one portion of our breakeven reduction program.

正如我所說，我們上週削減了盈虧平衡削減計劃的一部分費用。

The remaining reductions will come from two areas.

剩餘的削減將來自兩個領域。

First, as FLEX becomes our dominant product line, our manufacturing model should deliver expense reductions that will lower our pro forma breakeven further.

首先，隨著 FLEX 成為我們的主導產品線，我們的製造模式應該會降低費用，進一步降低我們的預期損益平衡點。

The fact that we can now build a FLEX system in 54 hours versus 12 or 15 days for our other products will increasingly improve our P&L and balance sheet over the course of 2005.

事實上，我們現在可以在 54 小時內建立一個 FLEX 系統，而其他產品則需要 12 或 15 天，這將在 2005 年期間持續改善我們的損益表和資產負債表。

In addition, we will continue to migrate sourcing and manufacturing in TCF, the low-cost regions.

此外，我們將繼續將採購和製造遷移到低成本地區TCF。

Given our bookings in Q4 and the current demand that we see from our customers, we expect sales in the first quarter to be $300 million plus or minus 10 million with a loss per share between 24 and 31 cents, including special charges that Greg will describe shortly.

考慮到我們第四季度的預訂量以及我們從客戶那裡看到的當前需求，我們預計第一季的銷售額將達到3 億美元上下1000 萬美元，每股虧損在24 至31 美分之間，其中包括格雷格將描述的特殊費用不久。

Now let me expand a bit on some of the important developments for the fourth quarter and what that tells us about market conditions in our various positions.

現在讓我詳細介紹第四季度的一些重要進展，以及這些進展告訴我們的各個職位的市場狀況。

In SemiTest, the market continued to be soft in the fourth quarter, although our IBM customers have high utilization rates on their installed base systems and are tight on capacity overall.

在 SemiTest 中，儘管我們的 IBM 客戶的已安裝基礎系統利用率很高且整體容量緊張，但第四季市場仍然疲軟。

Our subcontract customers continue to have excess capacity.

我們的分包客戶持續產能過剩。

As a result, our orders for the quarters split about 65 percent from IBM's and 35 percent from subcons in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們第四季的訂單中約 65% 來自 IBM，35% 來自分包商。

That was versus a 50-50 split for the year overall.

相比之下，全年的比例為 50:50。

From an applications point of view, the areas of strength in the quarter included testing RF and optical disk drive devices, processors for servers, workstations and gaming systems, automotive and TV devices, high-density image sensors, wireless devices and devices for consumer products, like the iPod.

從應用的角度來看，本季的優勢領域包括測試射頻和光碟機設備、伺服器處理器、工作站和遊戲系統、汽車和電視設備、高密度影像感測器、無線設備和消費性產品設備，如 iPod。

From a product perspective, the FLEX platform continues to gather momentum, representing now about 40 percent of our product orders in the quarter.

從產品角度來看，FLEX 平台持續保持強勁勢頭，目前約佔本季產品訂單的 40%。

Two things are happening with the FLEX as it has grown to over 250 unit orders.

隨著 FLEX 的訂單量成長到超過 250 台，它發生了兩件事。

First, we're stretching the FLEX into new applications, including next-generation processors, to be used in the next round of consumer gaming systems.

首先，我們將 FLEX 擴展到新的應用程式中，包括下一代處理器，用於下一輪消費遊戲系統。

And second, we are expanding the number of parallel test applications as customers take advantage of this important architectural element of FLEX.

其次，隨著客戶利用 FLEX 的這一重要架構元素，我們正在擴大並行測試應用程式的數量。

Now in Connection Systems, there was a distinct pause in business in the fourth quarter with orders down over 20 percent sequentially.

現在，Connection Systems 的業務在第四季明顯停頓，訂單量較上季下降了 20% 以上。

Some of our large contract manufacturing customers aggressively trimmed back demand to reduce excess inventory by year end.

我們的一些大型合約製造客戶在年底前積極削減需求，以減少過剩庫存。

From a longer-term perspective, our core connector business grew 39 percent in sales year-over-year despite a falloff in the fourth quarter.

從長期角度來看，儘管第四季有所下滑，我們的核心連接器業務銷售額仍年增了 39%。

Our design-ins were strong again in Q4, up 35 percent year-over-year with 8 new customers in the quarter and 33 in the year.

我們的設計在第四季再次強勁，年增 35%，本季新增客戶 8 家，全年新增客戶 33 家。

Our new GbX connector had a number of new wins; we gained connector market share in 2004 in an increasingly competitive market.

我們的新型 GbX 連接器取得了多項新成果； 2004 年，我們在競爭日益激烈的市場中獲得了連接器市場。

There are some signs that the inventory correction may be a short-term problem based on activity early in this quarter.

根據本季初的活動，有一些跡象表明庫存調整可能是一個短期問題。

In addition, it appears that we will benefit from some recently announced 3G wireless equipment contracts and renewed network equipment spending in the race to win the triple play of voice, data and video.

此外，我們似乎還將受益於最近宣布的一些3G無線設備合約以及更新的網路設備支出，以贏得語音、數據和視訊三重播放的競爭。

In the end, however, we need to keep the pressure on reducing our cost structure for accelerated repositioning of our value manufacturing and supply sources to low-cost regions.

但最終，我們需要繼續保持降低成本結構的壓力，以加速將我們的價值製造和供應來源重新定位到低成本地區。

Successful implementation of those moves is our main focus for the first half of 2005 in the Connection Systems division.

成功實施這些措施是我們連結系統部門 2005 年上半年的主要關注點。

In our Assembly Test division, we had a good fourth quarter in bookings in both the new Mill Aero Test (ph) segment and in the Commercial Printed Circuit Board test segment, with orders up 23 percent sequentially.

在我們的組裝測試部門，我們在第四季度新的 Mill Aero Test (ph) 部門和商業印刷電路板測試部門的訂單量都表現良好，訂單量環比增長了 23%。

Mill Aero had very strong growth with orders from the UK Ministry of Defense, the Navy's RTCAS (ph) Program and the B-1-B program.

Mill Aero 憑藉英國國防部、海軍 RTCAS (ph) 計劃和 B-1-B 計劃的訂單實現了非常強勁的增長。

Of particular note is an order on the new Agile Rapid (ph) Global Combat Support System program.

特別值得注意的是新的敏捷快速（ph）全球作戰支援系統計畫的訂單。

This is a joint services program and could represent a major source of revenue to us over the next several years.

這是一個聯合服務計劃，可能是我們未來幾年的主要收入來源。

On the Commercial side, our Safe Test Technology continues to gain momentum in a variety of applications and resulted in several points of market share gain over our primary competitor in 2004.

在商業方面，我們的安全測試技術在各種應用中繼續獲得發展勢頭，並在 2004 年比我們的主要競爭對手獲得了多個百分點的市場份額。

On a geographic basis, the European market was particularly strong, generating almost half of the product orders in the quarter.

從地理來看，歐洲市場尤其強勁，產生了本季近一半的產品訂單。

From and end-market point of view, we saw strength from the Computer, Communications and Automotive segments, while the industrial business remained fairly stable.

從終端市場的角度來看，我們看到電腦、通訊和汽車領域的實力，而工業業務則保持相當穩定。

Our Diagnostic Solutions business continues to benefit from the growth in content and complexity of automotive electronics.

我們的診斷解決方案業務繼續受益於汽車電子內容和複雜性的成長。

Orders DS grew 26 percent sequentially and the group turned in its 14th consecutive profitable quarter.

DS 訂單連續成長 26%，該集團連續第 14 個季度獲利。

During the quarter, DS achieved a major milestone with the acceptance of the first vehicle configuration and test system for use in manufacturing by a major Japanese OEM.

在本季度，DS 實現了一個重要的里程碑，首個車輛配置和測試系統被一家日本主要 OEM 接受用於製造。

Worldwide deployment is slated to follow over the course of 2005.

預計 2005 年將在全球部署。

Finally, our business in Broadband Test showed a 17 percent increase in sequential orders in Q4.

最後，我們的寬頻測試業務顯示第四季的連續訂單成長了 17%。

On a worldwide basis, DSL-equipped telephone lines doubled from 35 million to 70 million in 2004 and our orders increased in the same proportion.

2004 年，全球配備 DSL 的電話線路數量翻了一番，從 3500 萬條增至 7000 萬條，我們的訂單也以同樣的比例增長。

The advantages from using Solarity (ph) for developing DSL continue to escalate.

使用 Solarity (ph) 開發 DSL 的優勢不斷增強。

One of our major customers recently found that Solarity was able to qualify 38 percent of the lines previously disqualified for high-speed service, resulting in significant revenue opportunities for them.

我們的一位主要客戶最近發現 Solarity 能夠使之前不符合高速服務資格的線路中的 38% 獲得資格，為他們帶來了巨大的收入機會。

So overall, the environment continues to be tough and we're making no rosy assumptions about the future.

因此，整體而言，環境仍然嚴峻，我們對未來沒有做出樂觀的假設。

We're confident that driving the FLEX platform even harder and cutting our cost structure to achieve a pro forma breakeven of 330 million per quarter are the keys to our longer-term success, and that's what we're focused on as we enter 2005.

我們相信，更加努力地推動 FLEX 平台並削減成本結構以實現每季 3.3 億美元的預計盈虧平衡是我們長期成功的關鍵，這也是我們進入 2005 年時所關注的重點。

Now I will turn it over to Greg for more details on the financial picture.

現在我將把它交給格雷格，以獲取有關財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。

Greg?

格雷格？

Thanks Mike and good morning everyone.

謝謝麥克，大家早安。

Our sales in the fourth quarter of 377 million were down 18 percent from the previous quarter and 5 percent above the level a year ago.

我們第四季的銷售額為 3.77 億美元，比上季下降 18%，比去年同期下降 5%。

We had net income of 3.3 million, or 2 cents per share on 196 million diluted shares.

我們的淨利潤為 330 萬美元，即 1.96 億股稀釋後每股收益 2 美分。

Our gross profit was 132.8 million for 35.2 percent of sales, down from 41.2 percent of sales in the third quarter.

我們的毛利為 1.328 億美元，佔銷售額的 35.2%，低於第三季銷售額的 41.2%。

This decline was primarily related to the reduction in SemiTest shipments, which carry a higher gross margin.

這一下降主要與毛利率較高的 SemiTest 出貨量減少有關。

In addition, changes in both SemiTest and Connection Systems' product mix for further pulled down our gross margins.

此外，SemiTest和Connection Systems產品結構的變化進一步拉低了我們的毛利率。

In SemiTest, the mix was skewed to new products which invariably start out at lower gross margins as material cost reductions accelerate with higher cumulative volumes.

在 SemiTest 中，產品組合偏向新產品，這些新產品一開始的毛利率總是較低，因為材料成本隨著累積產量的增加而加速下降。

In addition, the early configurations often contain less instrumentation.

此外，早期的配置通常包含較少的儀器。

In TCS, there was a very sharp decline in the connector mix which is a more profitable business for us.

在 TCS，連接器組合急劇下降，這對我們來說是一項利潤較高的業務。

Several TCS customers worked down excess connector inventories.

一些 TCS 客戶減少了多餘的連接器庫存。

R&D expenses were 63.1 million, or 17 percent of sales as compared to 50 percent of sales in the third quarter.

研發費用為 6,310 萬元，佔銷售額的 17%，而第三季則佔銷售額的 50%。

SG&A expenses were 62.1 million, or 17 percent of sales as compared to 15 percent of sales from the third quarter.

SG&A 費用為 6,210 萬美元，佔銷售額的 17%，而第三季則佔銷售額的 15%。

The percentage increases are the result of the declining sales as both R&D and SG&A spending levels were lowered in total by $12 million from the prior quarter.

百分比成長是銷售額下降的結果，因為研發和銷售、一般行政費用水準比上一季總共減少了 1,200 萬美元。

About two-thirds of this reduction was caused by reductions in our variable compensation amounts.

其中約三分之二的減少是由於我們可變薪酬金額的減少所造成的。

Restructuring and other charges were 5.1 million for the quarter, primarily consisting of severance for 135 people and lease termination charges.

本季重組和其他費用為 510 萬歐元，主要包括 135 人的遣散費和租賃終止費用。

We provided $400,000 in income taxes in the quarter, consistent with our estimated annual tax rate for 2004 of 10.5 percent.

我們在本季度提供了 40 萬美元的所得稅，與我們估計的 2004 年 10.5% 的年稅率一致。

Our quarter ending headcount was 7105, including 6234 regular employees, which represents a decrease of 262 people during the quarter as we continued the cutbacks that began in Q3, primarily in operations.

我們季度末的員工人數為 7105 人，其中包括 6234 名正式員工，這意味著本季度減少了 262 人，因為我們繼續從第三季度開始進行裁員，主要是在營運方面。

Post the quarter close as communicated in our Form 8-K, we cut back another 320 positions, primarily in TCS volume manufacturing, and to a lesser extent, in our Assembly Test commercial business, yielding a current headcount of 5914.

在季度結束後，如表格 8-K 所示，我們削減了 320 個職位，主要是 TCS 批量製造領域的職位，其次是裝配測試商業業務領域的職位，目前的員工人數為 5914 人。

In our last call, we described that we would lower our pro forma breakeven regardless of 2005 demand.

在上次電話會議中，我們表示無論 2005 年的需求為何，我們都會降低預期損益平衡點。

These plans are being executed and will occur throughout 2005.

這些計劃正在執行中，並將在 2005 年全年實施。

The major sources of savings will come from lowering our manufacturing costs in SemiTest with our new FLEX Test systems and continuing the TCS movement of volume manufacturing into low-cost locations.

節省的主要來源將來自於透過我們新的 FLEX 測試系統降低 SemiTest 的製造成本，以及繼續將大量製造轉移到低成本地點的 TCS。

The actions we took in January will take some time to fully work through our results as moving manufacturing also means moving supply lines to lower cost sourcing.

我們在一月採取的行動將需要一些時間才能充分發揮我們的成果，因為轉移製造也意味著將供應線轉移到成本較低的採購。

This can only happen after the existing supply commitments have been depleted.

這只有在現有供應承諾耗盡後才會發生。

On FLEX, we have outsourced all of the manufacturing while we have retained the final configuration and test inside the Company.

在 FLEX 上，我們外包了所有製造工作，同時保留了公司內部的最終配置和測試。

The cycle time for this step in the process is currently 54 hours for FLEX, while it was between 12 and 15 days for our legacy products.

目前，FLEX 的流程中此步驟的周期時間為 54 小時，而我們的舊產品則為 12 到 15 天。

As such with FLEX, our fixed costs will be lower.

因此，使用 FLEX，我們的固定成本將會更低。

Other improvements will also occur naturally over the course of 2005, such as connector mix getting back in line from the Q4 skewing.

其他改進也將在 2005 年期間自然發生，例如連接器組合從第四季度的偏差中恢復過來。

As you might imagine, there is a longer list of actions that we're also executing against beyond manufacturing savings.

正如您可能想像的那樣，除了製造成本節省之外，我們還執行了更長的行動清單。

Fourth-quarter SemiTest sales were 56 percent of the total, Connection Systems 25 percent, Assembly Test 11 percent and other test, 8 percent.

第四季 SemiTest 銷售額佔總銷售額的 56%，連接系統佔 25%，組裝測試佔 11%，其他測試佔 8%。

On a geographic basis, our fourth quarter sales broke down as follows -- U.S., 36.7 percent;

從地理來看，我們第四季的銷售額細分如下：美國，36.7%；

Europe, 13.5;

歐洲，13.5；

Singapore, 8.0;

新加坡，8.0；

Taiwan, 7.8;

台灣，7.8；

Southeast Asia, 14.2;

東南亞，14.2；

Japan, 5.3;

日本，5.3；

Korea, 4.2; rest of world, 6.3.

韓國，4.2；世界其他地區，6.3。

We had net bookings of 297.6 million in the quarter.

本季我們的淨預訂量為 2.976 億。

On quarter-to-quarter basis, our total net bookings were up 5 percent, SemiTest was up 16 percent, Connection Systems down 21 percent, Assembly Test up 23 percent and other tests up 23 percent.

按季度計算，我們的總淨預訂量增長了 5%，SemiTest 增長了 16%，連接系統下降了 21%，組裝測試增長了 23%，其他測試增長了 23%。

On a year-over-year basis, total net bookings were down 39 percent, SemiTest down 52 percent, Connection Systems down 12 percent, Assembly Test down 2 percent and other tests down 39 percent.

與去年同期相比，總淨預訂量下降了 39%，SemiTest 下降了 52%，連接系統下降了 12%，組裝測試下降了 2%，其他測試下降了 39%。

Our book-to-bill ratios were 0.79 for the overall company, 0.704 for SemiTest, 0.834 for Connection Systems, 1.14 for Assembly Test and 0.864 for other tests.

我們整個公司的訂單出貨比為 0.79，SemiTest 為 0.704，連接系統為 0.834，組裝測試為 1.14，其他測試為 0.864。

At the end of the quarter, our backlog stood at 407.3 million, of which 72 percent is scheduled to ship within the next 6 months.

截至本季末，我們的積壓訂單量為 4.073 億，其中 72% 計劃在未來 6 個月內出貨。

On a geographic basis, our bookings for the quarter were distributed as follows --U.S., 46.0 percent;

從地理來看，我們本季的預訂量分佈如下：美國，46.0%；

Europe, 23.4;

歐洲，23.4；

Singapore, 4.6;

新加坡，4.6；

Taiwan, 5.5;

台灣，5.5；

Southeast Asia, 9.6;

東南亞，9.6；

Japan, 7.7;

日本，7.7；

Korea, 2.8; rest of world, 0.4.

韓國，2.8；世界其他地區，0.4。

Moving now to the balance sheet, we continue to grow cash as we ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of 691.2 million, up 15.6 million over the end of the third quarter.

現在來看資產負債表，我們的現金持續成長，第四季末現金和有價證券為 6.912 億美元，比第三季末增加 1,560 萬美元。

Since the fourth quarter of a year ago, we have grown cash and marketable securities by 105 million while also reducing our long-term liabilities by 43 million.

自去年第四季以來，我們的現金和有價證券增加了 1.05 億美元，同時也減少了 4,300 萬美元的長期負債。

The net cash change factoring in a reduction in the long-term liabilities totals $148 million.

考慮長期負債減少，淨現金變動總計 1.48 億美元。

This reduction for improvement was enabled by our net income of $165 million in 2004.

2004 年，我們的淨收入達到 1.65 億美元，從而實現了這種改進的減少。

Accounts receivables stood at 223.5 million, or 55 days sales outstanding.

應收帳款為 2.235 億美元，即 55 天應收帳款。

We ended the quarter with inventory of 263 million, or 3.71 turns, down 21.9 million from the end of the third quarter.

本季末，我們的庫存為 2.63 億件，即 3.71 週，比第三季末減少 2,190 萬件。

We spent 22.4 million on capital in the quarter, net of sales of related capital equipment.

本季我們的資本支出為 2,240 萬美元，扣除相關資本設備的銷售費用。

This was primarily driven by increased customer evaluations of our new SemiTest products.

這主要是由於客戶對我們新的 SemiTest 產品的評價增加所致。

Depreciation and amortization was 27.1 million.

折舊和攤提為2710萬元。

In the first quarter of 2005 as Mike mentioned, we expect sales to be between 290 and 310 million, with a loss between (technical difficulty) per share.

正如麥克所提到的，2005 年第一季度，我們預計銷售額將在 290 至 3.1 億之間，每股虧損在（技術難度）之間。

This assumes a 2.5 million tax provision for foreign and state taxes.

假設外國和州稅為 250 萬美元。

This guidance also includes pretax restructuring and other charges of $13 million.

該指導還包括 1300 萬美元的稅前重組和其他費用。

We expect gross margins in the first quarter to run between 30 and 32 percent, R&D and SG&A should each run between 21 and 22 percent.

我們預計第一季的毛利率將在 30% 至 32% 之間，研發和銷售、一般管理費用應分別在 21% 至 22% 之間。

We expect to lower inventory by about 10 million, we expect to decrease AR by about 20 million.

我們預計庫存將減少約1000萬個，我們預計AR將減少約2000萬個。

In addition, we expect to spend 37 million or less on capital.

此外，我們預計資本支出為 3700 萬或更少。

The capital spending is principally for customer evaluations of our SemiTest products.

資本支出主要用於客戶對我們的 SemiTest 產品的評估。

Depreciation and amortization should be around 31 million.

折舊和攤提應該在3100萬左右。

We expect to end the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of around 620 million.

我們預計第一季末現金和有價證券約為 6.2 億美元。

And now, I will turn it back to Tom.

現在，我將把它轉回給湯姆。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Judy, we'd like to now open the discussion for questions.

朱迪，我們現在開始討論問題。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Peter Wright, CIBC World Markets.

Peter Wright，CIBC 全球行銷部。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I was hoping you guys could comment on two things.

我希望你們能就兩件事發表評論。

First of all, typically in your Q and K, you comment on the profitability by segment.

首先，通常在 Q 和 K 中，您會按部門評論盈利能力。

And I was hoping you could comment on the profitability in the fourth quarter, and if any, which segments you expect to still be profitable in the first quarter.

我希望您能評論一下第四季度的盈利能力，如果有的話，您預計哪些部門在第一季仍將盈利。

And then my second question is on kind of an IDM versus subcon split.

我的第二個問題是關於 IDM 與分包商的劃分。

When looking at utilization rates for your new testers being in the 90 percent range at the IDMs, what type of timing or visibility of the timing do you have to subcons which are more weighted to the legacy systems, buying up your next-generation FLEX and Tigers?

當查看 IDM 中新測試儀的使用率在 90% 範圍內時，您需要什麼類型的時序或時序可見性來分包哪些對遺留系統更重要，購買下一代 FLEX 和老虎？

In the fourth quarter, the divisions were profitable, with the exception of, once you factor in the restructuring charges in TCS, that put TCS slightly in the red.

第四季度，各部門獲利，但考慮到 TCS 的重組費用後，TCS 略有虧損。

So, in the first quarter, TCS went in the red, the other divisions were profitable -- the fourth quarter.

因此，在第一季度，TCS 出現了虧損，而其他部門則在第四季度實現了盈利。

When you looked at the first quarter, SemiTest certainly will have a loss.

從第一季來看，SemiTest 肯定會虧損。

The smaller divisions will be expected to be profitable, which would be DS, BTD, and also ATD.

DS、BTD 和 ATD 等較小的部門預計將實現盈利。

Alright, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Peter, this is Mike Bradley.

彼得，這是麥克·布拉德利。

Was your question on the IDM-subcon split -- the last point you made was -- what's the visibility to the next-generation -- what is the penetration of our next-generation products into the subcons?

您的問題是關於 IDM 與分包商的分裂嗎？

Was that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

What catalysts should we be paying attention to for the subcons to be buying the Tigers and FLEX?

對於分包商購買 Tigers 和 FLEX 而言，我們應該注意哪些催化劑？

I see.

我懂了。

Let me recap a couple of things since you asked about utilization first.

自從您先詢問利用率以來，讓我回顧一下幾件事。

The utilization in IDMs has been steady, as you commented.

正如您所說，IDM 的利用率一直穩定。

And that is in the mid-80 percent level, but that has been steady since the middle part of this year.

這個數字處於 80% 的中間水平，但自今年中期以來一直保持穩定。

Maybe it has been 1 or 2 percent down, but pretty stable.

也許下降了 1% 或 2%，但相當穩定。

The subcons, as we said before, is the area where the utilization rates have trended down, and that has been on a 1 or 2 percentage point basis since July.

正如我們之前所說，分包商是利用率呈下降趨勢的領域，自 7 月以來一直下降了 1 或 2 個百分點。

And we've continued to see that through December, so you have low 70s in our utilization tracking in the subcons and mid-80s in the IDMs.

整個 12 月我們都在持續看到這一情況，因此我們的分包商利用率追蹤結果為 70 多歲，而 IDM 的利用率追蹤為 80 多歲。

Now product-by-product, it's obviously different.

現在，從產品到產品，情況顯然有所不同。

With the newer products, utilization rates are higher.

隨著產品更新，利用率更高。

With the legacy products -- for example, catalyst is where the major reduction in utilization has been in the subcons.

例如，對於傳統產品來說，催化劑是利用率大幅下降的地方。

Now the subcons follow the specification by the IDMs and the fabless companies with regard to the adoption of new technology, new test platforms.

現在，分包商在採用新技術、新測試平台方面遵循 IDM 和無晶圓廠公司的規範。

So we have seen the flow-through into the subcons for our new products already.

因此，我們已經看到新產品已流入分包商。

So you'll see the FLEX various versions, configurations of the FLEX, are already into the subcon marketplace.

所以你會看到FLEX的各種版本、配置的FLEX，已經進入了subcon市場。

So as the sockets that have been designed into the subcons either at the fabless or the IDMs, fabless companies at the IDMs, start to ramp, we will expect to see volume increases in that FLEX installed base.

因此，隨著設計到無晶圓廠或 IDM 的分包商（IDM 的無晶圓廠公司）中的插座開始增加，我們預計 FLEX 安裝量將會增加。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

David Duley, Merriman.

大衛杜利，梅里曼。

Good morning.

早安.

I was wondering if you could just articulate in a little bit greater detail the progression in cost savings through moving manufacturing or moving -- having the mix shift towards FLEX, and having the cycle times lower.

我想知道您是否可以更詳細地闡明透過移動製造或移動（將混合轉向 FLEX 並縮短週期時間）來節省成本的進展。

The timing of this is what I'm most curious about.

這是我最好奇的時機。

Do you have to work through most of your current inventory balances before you really start to kick in, or is this something that impacts the P&L statement immediately?

在真正開始之前，您是否必須處理當前的大部分庫存餘額，或者這是否會立即影響損益表？

Let me take that one.

讓我拿走那個。

Of the plan to get to the pro forma 330 million quarterly breakeven target work into the year, part of that plan includes $10 million of breakeven reduction related to FLEX.

在今年實現預計 3.3 億季度盈虧平衡目標工作的計劃中，該計劃的一部分包括與 FLEX 相關的 1,000 萬美元盈虧平衡削減。

And what is happening with FLEX is FLEX has been designed very differently than the legacy products in that we have a modular product that we can do far less work within the Company.

FLEX 的設計與傳統產品非常不同，因為我們擁有模組化產品，可以在公司內部完成更少的工作。

And the yield has been improved significantly such that we need far fewer test people as well as infrastructure people, because even the number of parts are greatly reduced.

而且良率顯著提高，我們需要的測試人員和基礎設施人員也少得多，因為甚至零件數量也大大減少了。

So the infrastructure and the test requirements for FLEX are very different than the legacy products.

因此，FLEX 的基礎設施和測試要求與傳統產品有很大不同。

Now we are still selling legacy products and expect to for a long period of time, so this is going to be a set of improvements we get over some number of years.

現在我們仍在銷售傳統產品，並預計將持續很長一段時間，因此這將是我們在幾年內獲得的一系列改進。

In 2005, we see that it's very clear that we should get a $5 million savings, which in our breakeven conversion, brings it out to about $10 million of breakeven revenue.

2005 年，我們清楚地看到，我們應該節省 500 萬美元，在我們的損益平衡轉換中，這將帶來約 1000 萬美元的損益平衡收入。

That will occur Q2, Q3, be fully in the numbers by Q3.

這將發生在 Q2、Q3 上，到 Q3 時就會完全出現在數字中。

And then by Q4, we'll be at the 330 target.

然後到第四季度，我們將達到 330 的目標。

So it's a little bit back-end loaded.

所以它有一點後端加載。

While you will hear some actions throughout the year, it does take some time to get the full savings in the P&L where (ph) actions will be taken earlier.

雖然您會在一年中聽到一些行動，但確實需要一些時間才能在損益表中獲得全部節省，其中（ph）行動將提前採取。

Now does the gross margin profile of FLEX, when you get it up and ramped to whatever volumes that you might be anticipating, does it match the Catalyst and Tiger margins, or do we see a gain here or a reduction?

現在，當你將 FLEX 的毛利率提高到你可能預期的任何數量時，它的毛利率狀況是否與 Catalyst 和 Tiger 的利潤率相匹配，或者我們看到這裡是增加還是減少？

What we are assuming now for now in our model is that, while the product margin itself is attractive compared to what we want it to be, just the standard product, we're also lowering our manufacturing and fixed cost.

我們現在在模型中假設的是，雖然產品利潤本身與我們想要的標準產品相比很有吸引力，但我們也在降低製造和固定成本。

So both of those are good news.

所以這兩個都是好消息。

But assuming that there will be some competitive price pressure, we are not yet counting on getting better margin than what we've gotten in the past.

但假設存在一定的競爭性價格壓力，我們還不指望獲得比過去更高的利潤率。

We think it's more realistic to assume that the margins on the new products, as they mature more and our material cost-down programs have more of an impact and the products have greater instrumentation, that the margins will look similar to what the legacy product margins look like.

我們認為，更現實的假設是，隨著新產品更加成熟，我們的材料成本降低計劃會產生更大的影響，並且產品擁有更多的工具，新產品的利潤率將與傳統產品的利潤率相似。

Final question from me.

我的最後一個問題。

I think you mentioned in your prepared comments, the SemiTest orders were I think up 16 percent sequentially.

我想您在準備好的評論中提到，我認為 SemiTest 訂單連續增長了 16%。

That's a little surprising.

這有點令人驚訝。

Does it have to do with the timing of any large orders, or was last quarter's order rates in SemiTest just artificially low for some reason?

這是否與任何大訂單的時間安排有關，或者 SemiTest 上個季度的訂單率是否出於某種原因被人為地壓低了？

Or, are you seeing a recovery in some of your key IDM customers?

或者，您是否看到一些主要 IDM 客戶出現復甦？

David the orders -- you have to split the orders in SemiTest into the system orders and service orders.

David 訂單－您必須將 SemiTest 中的訂單分為系統訂單和服務訂單。

And the reason the orders were up in the fourth quarter was due to year-end annual contract renewals.

第四季訂單成長的原因是年底年度合約續約。

So we have a bump in -- it's a seasonal phenomenon -- we had a bump in the service contract business.

因此，我們的服務合約業務出現了成長，這是一種季節性現象。

So our systems business was down between 5 and 10 percent and the net increase of 5 percent was due to a slug of the annual contract renewals.

因此，我們的系統業務下降了 5% 到 10%，而 5% 的淨成長是由於年度合約續約的停滯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John Pitzer, CSFB.

約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer)，瑞士信貸第一波士頓銀行 (CSFB)。

Good morning.

早安.

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

Just a follow-on to Dave's last question.

只是戴夫最後一個問題的後續。

I'm assuming that the service contracts don't come up again in the March quarter.

我假設服務合約不會在三月季度再次出現。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

There's service contracts every quarter, but our comments have dealt with the increment.

每個季度都有服務合同，但我們的評論涉及增量。

So the bubble does not occur, but there still are service contracts that occur throughout the year.

所以泡沫不會發生，但全年仍有服務合約發生。

Guys, I know you don't like to comment on orders because your business tends to be real back-end loaded.

夥計們，我知道您不喜歡對訂單發表評論，因為您的業務往往是真正的後端加載。

But, given that phenomenon, you're kind of already starting in a hole in the March quarter.

但是，考慮到這種現象，你在三月這個季度就已經開始陷入困境了。

Can we expect this 290 to 310 million level to be kind of the run rate over the next couple of quarters, or is there a risk that we see another drop-down in revenues going forward?

我們是否可以預期 290 至 3.1 億的水平是未來幾季的運行率，或者我們是否有看到未來收入再次下降的風險？

I will make a comment and then Greg will talk about how we are modeling out the next six months.

我將發表評論，然後格雷格將談論我們如何規劃未來六個月的情況。

I think the truth is that the visibility is very cloudy, and we've said that in the past.

我認為事實是能見度非常低，我們過去也說過。

But I would describe this as a stock market for semiconductor test.

但我會將其描述為半導體測試的股票市場。

And that means that the expectations customers have for short delivery are prevailing in the marketplace.

這意味著客戶對短期交貨的期望在市場上盛行。

And secondly, they are buying only at the last moment.

其次，他們只是在最後一刻才購買。

So forecasting of the quarter is even more difficult than it would be at any other time.

因此，本季的預測比任何其他時間都更加困難。

The expectation, if you said what are we hearing from customers in the last four weeks, what I am hearing is that in the subcon segment, which as we have said, is the most -- is the driver of the downturn, is that they are feeling some stabilization in their business.

如果你說我們在過去四個星期裡從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，我聽到的是，在分包商領域，正如我們所說，這是經濟低迷的最大驅動因素，他們是感覺他們的業務有些穩定。

But again, that's anecdotal evidence at this point.

但同樣，這只是目前的軼事證據。

Until we see orders, we can't really say what is going to happen for the first quarter.

在我們看到訂單之前，我們無法真正判斷第一季會發生什麼。

Greg, why don't you comment on how we are playing?

格雷格，為什麼不評論一下我們的表現呢？

The way we are thinking about it, John, is at our current guidance, 290 to 310, that -- and if we assume the bookings we get in the first quarter are identical to the fourth quarter bookings, just for modeling purpose, for systems -- and we get the service bookings back down to normal, we take out the bubble.

約翰，我們思考這個問題的方式是我們當前的指導，290 到 310，如果我們假設第一季的預訂量與第四季度的預訂量相同，只是為了建模目的，對於系統——我們讓服務預訂恢復正常，我們消除了泡沫。

So just simply assume the same exact bookings in fourth quarter for equipment for modeling purposes.

因此，只需假設第四季度用於建模目的的設備預訂量完全相同即可。

What you would see is that we would be taking our backlog down $20 million, which is not a large number by itself.

您會看到，我們的積壓訂單將減少 2000 萬美元，這本身並不是一個大數字。

But then the question one would have to ask, if that continued quarter after quarter after quarter, how long can you take your backlog down 20 million?

但接下來的問題是，如果這種情況持續一個季度又一個季度，你能在多長時間內將積壓訂單減少 2,000 萬？

Sitting here now, I would not be concerned with the second quarter, would we be flat in the second quarter -- I think that is a reasonable assumption.

現在坐在這裡，我不會關心第二季度，我們是否會在第二季度持平——我認為這是一個合理的假設。

Certainly over some longer period of time, if bookings remained flat, that would put greater pressure on pulling our range down, but it feels like it's a $20 million range right now under the assumption that bookings remain at this depressed flat level.

當然，在較長一段時間內，如果預訂量保持平穩，這會給我們的區間拉低帶來更大的壓力，但假設預訂量保持在這個低迷的持平水平，感覺現在的區間是2000 萬美元。

And then two more quick questions.

然後還有兩個簡單的問題。

Mike, first, can you help me understand the ASP differential between the FLEX and the catalyst?

Mike，首先，您能幫我了解 FLEX 和催化劑之間的 ASP 差異嗎？

You have seen customers who were looking at the catalyst now deciding to move ahead with the FLEX.

您已經看到那些正在尋找催化劑的客戶現在決定繼續使用 FLEX。

Well, the ASPs are -- it's a complicated question, because the configurations of FLEXs come in a variety of shapes.

嗯，ASP 是一個複雜的問題，因為 FLEX 的配置有多種形式。

What I mean by that is, obviously, a wide range of instrumentation is available, but configurations for high parallelism duplicate some of the instruments in the system.

我的意思是，顯然，有多種儀器可供使用，但高並行性的配置會重複系統中的一些儀器。

The way we have positioned the product with customers is that they would get a comparable capital cost for the FLEX to the catalyst, but they would get a multiple in parallelism.

我們向客戶定位產品的方式是，他們將獲得與催化劑相當的 FLEX 資本成本，但他們將獲得多倍的並行性。

So the economic effect on them is great, even though the capital cost differential is small.

因此，儘管資本成本差異很小，但對它們的經濟影響卻很大。

And then just last question for Greg.

接下來是格雷格的最後一個問題。

Greg, if you look at the SG&A and R&D guidance you gave for the March quarter, it kind of implies that absolute dollar expenses are flat to up in the March quarter.

格雷格（Greg），如果你看一下你為三月份季度提供的銷售、行政管理和研發指導，這有點意味著三月份季度的絕對美元支出持平或上升。

Am I reading that right, and does that guidance include the onetime charges?

我沒看錯嗎？

Just help me understand on a dollar basis what expenses are doing sequentially?

請幫助我了解以美元計算的費用依次發生了什麼事？

You are reading that correct, John.

你沒看錯，約翰。

In the fourth quarter as the year deteriorated for us, we took down our variable compensation arrangements, our estimates for those much more severely in the fourth quarter, given the weak close to the year.

在第四季度，隨著我們今年的情況惡化，我們取消了可變薪酬安排，考慮到今年年底的疲軟狀況，我們對第四季度的薪酬安排的估計要嚴重得多。

So the fourth quarter SG&A and R&D are slightly lower than what they might be on a normal basis.

因此，第四季的銷售、管理費用和研發費用略低於正常水準。

So then when we start Q1, we start to see one variable compensation, assuming it will be a good year for Teradyne, so we start at a normal accrual rate.

因此，當我們開始第一季時，我們開始看到一個可變薪酬，假設這對泰瑞達來說是個好年頭，所以我們以正常的應計利率開始。

If 2005 does not turn out to be (technical difficulty) for Teradyne, we will adjust those accrual rates back down to match what is reasonable to compensate the employees.

如果泰瑞達在 2005 年沒有遇到（技術困難），我們將調整這些應計利率以符合合理的員工薪資。

And can you do that intra-quarter Q1, or would that be something you would have to do looking forward into Q2?

您能否在第一季內完成這項工作，或者這是您在第二季度必須要做的事情嗎？

The way we have done it every year is we look at what we think the full year will be for results.

我們每年的做法是，我們都會考慮全年的結果。

And then, depending upon that, which we allocate the variable compensation each quarter; the only change to that is profit-sharing is more mechanical.

然後，根據情況，我們每季分配可變薪酬；唯一的改變是利潤分享更加機械化。

Whatever the profit is, we accrue that in that particular quarter.

無論利潤是多少，我們都會在該特定季度累積利潤。

But the whole variable compensation arrangements are done based upon what do we expect it to be at year-end, which takes into account how we are thinking about the latter part of the year, versus simply what does the first quarter look like.

但整個可變薪酬安排是根據我們對年底的預期來完成的，其中考慮了我們對今年下半年的看法，而不是簡單地考慮第一季度的情況。

So it can be a little bumpy.

所以可能會有點坎坷。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Patrick Ho, Moors & Cabot.

派崔克‧何 (Patrick Ho)，Moors & Cabot。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Guys, can you just go over again a little of the transition of FLEX and how you're going to improve on the margins front and the efficiencies front?

夥計們，您能否再回顧一下 FLEX 的轉型以及您將如何提高利潤和效率？

Given that you have had I guess several quarters, and it sounds like you're getting good market share gains, what's I guess holding back some of the margin gains that you're getting from the quicker manufacturing times that you're talking about here?

鑑於您已經經歷了幾個季度，而且聽起來您正在獲得良好的市場份額收益，我想是什麼阻礙了您從這裡談論的更快的製造時間中獲得的一些利潤收益？

Well, Patrick, it's a function of what the mix of the FLEX product is to our legacy products.

嗯，派崔克，這是 FLEX 產品與我們傳統產品的組合的功能。

So if we went immediately to 100 percent FLEX, we would get the full benefit of that margin improvement because of the cycle time.

因此，如果我們立即採用 100% FLEX，我們將因週期時間而充分受益於利潤率的提高。

Obviously, we're happy to have the legacy product selling, and so we do have a mix of those currently.

顯然，我們很高興能夠銷售舊產品，因此我們目前確實有這些產品的組合。

And as that transitions over the next couple of years, full FLEX product line, then you will see that play through the P&L.

隨著未來幾年的轉變，完整的 FLEX 產品線，您將在損益表中看到這一點。

And then I just wanted to make it clear.

然後我只是想澄清一下。

You did say that you were trying to get it to the breakeven levels, in terms of the cost basis by Q4?

您確實說過，就第四季的成本基礎而言，您正試圖使其達到損益平衡水準？

What I said (indiscernible) that our pro forma breakeven target of 330 in the fourth quarter, that the FLEX manufacturing is worth about 10 million of the reduction to get us to the 330.

我說過（聽不清楚），我們預期第四季的損益平衡目標為 330，FLEX 製造價值約 1,000 萬美元，可以讓我們達到 330。

And that will occur over time, but you see the full impact of it certainly in the fourth quarter.

這將隨著時間的推移而發生，但你肯定會在第四季度看到它的全部影響。

Some will show up earlier, but the full 10 makes its way in the fourth quarter.

有些會提前出現，但全部 10 名將在第四季出現。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And a final question on the TCS business.

最後一個問題是關於 TCS 業務的。

You did mention I think earlier on the call that you had seen a little bit of a pickup in the early months of this quarter.

您確實提到，我認為早些時候在電話會議上您已經看到本季的前幾個月出現了一些回升。

I guess what gives you confidence that this is sustainable, and also, whether this inventory correction on the TCS side of things will be short-lived?

我想是什麼讓您相信這是可持續的，而且 TCS 方面的庫存調整是否會是短暫的？

We're giving you some very, very close-in view of what's happening on the inventory pulls, which is where the contract manufacturer drop-off was in the late part of Q4, and we are starting to see that come back to a more normal level.

我們正在為您提供一些關於庫存拉動情況的非常非常密切的信息，這就是合約製造商在第四季度後期下降的情況，我們開始看到庫存拉回更多的情況。

We're actually not saying that we know that's going to stay back up, but there has been some compensation to what occurred late in the fourth quarter.

實際上，我們並不是說我們知道這種情況會持續下去，但對第四季末發生的事情已經有了一些補償。

I think the things that get us optimistic about the connector business is that the design-ins, the momentum on design-ins has been very strong, the announcement on some deployment of equipment has been visible in the marketplace.

我認為讓我們對連接器業務感到樂觀的是設計，設計的勢頭非常強勁，市場上已經可以看到一些設備部署的公告。

So overall, we are optimistic about that business.

總的來說，我們對該業務持樂觀態度。

But very short-term predictions on it I think would be hard to make.

但我認為很難對其做出非常短期的預測。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Jim Covello, Goldman, Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛，薩克斯。

Hi, guys good morning.

嗨，大家早安。

Thanks for taking the time.

感謝您抽出時間。

Quick question on some market share data that was released I guess by VLSI Research in which Advantest was talking about.

關於一些市場份額數據的快速提問，我猜是 VLSI Research 發布的，其中 Advantest 正在談論這些數據。

Talked about Advantest picking up a lot of share in SOC test around the Open Star platform.

談到 Advantest 在 Open Star 平台周圍的 SOC 測試中獲得了大量份額。

Can you talk a little bit about that -- what kind biases there might be in those numbers that were released?

您能談談這一點嗎？

Any thoughts you have around that?

您對此有什麼想法嗎？

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Jim, the announcement that you're referring that just came out was from Advantest around gains in market share in the non-memory SOC space, relative to their -- partly relative -- to their Open Star product.

Jim，您提到的剛剛發布的公告是 Advantest 圍繞非內存 SOC 領域的市場份額增長而發布的，相對於他們的（部分是相對的）他們的 Open Star 產品。

I don't want to go into too much detail about what is happening with the competitors product.

我不想詳細介紹競爭對手產品的情況。

I will say this.

我會這麼說。

We think that the two companies that have gain share in the SOC space would be Paradigm and Advantest this year.

我們認為今年在 SOC 領域獲得份額的兩家公司將是 Paradigm 和 Advantest。

That is where the major shifts have come.

這就是重大轉變發生的地方。

Now with regard to our position versus Advantest on the product front, obviously, they are driving with their Open Star product and we're driving with FLEX.

現在，關於我們在產品方面與 Advantest 的對比，很明顯，他們正在使用 Open Star 產品，而我們正在使用 FLEX。

We think both of those have made market penetrations.

我們認為這兩者都已經實現了市場滲透。

I would characterize them as somewhat different in that I think the FLEX would be found in more end applications and in more customers because of the range of instrumentation.

我認為它們有些不同，因為我認為由於儀器的範圍，FLEX 會出現在更多的終端應用和更多的客戶中。

I think you'd find the Open Star more narrowly penetrated in the market, but I think it's clear that they have gained some share in the SOC segment.

我認為您會發現 Open Star 在市場上的滲透範圍更窄，但我認為很明顯他們已經在 SOC 領域獲得了一些份額。

That's helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

And then just one follow-up on the breakeven.

然後就收支平衡進行一次後續行動。

I guess two parts to it.

我想有兩個部分。

One, what would cause you to have to take the breakeven down again?

第一，什麼會導致你不得不再次達到損益兩平？

What would you need to see in the marketplace to try and drive that breakeven lower?

您需要在市場上看到什麼才能嘗試降低損益平衡點？

And then you may have said the second part, but I missed it.

然後你可能已經說了第二部分，但我錯過了。

The 300 million breakeven by Q4 -- I'm sorry, 330 million breakeven by Q4 -- what kind of revenue split does that assume?

第四季實現 3 億盈虧平衡——抱歉，第四季實現 3.3 億盈虧平衡——這假設了什麼樣的收入分配？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let me answer the first one, and I will have &Greg tackle the second one.

讓我回答第一個問題，然後我將讓 &Greg 解決第二個問題。

We talked last quarter about the SemiTest strategy and the breakeven in SemiTest, and I refreshed that a little bit here in my opening comments.

上個季度我們討論了 SemiTest 策略和 SemiTest 的盈虧平衡，我在開場評論中對此進行了一些刷新。

We sized that business to breakeven at right around $200 million per quarter.

我們將該業務規模確定為每季 2 億美元左右，以實現損益平衡。

We have a bit over a third of the market in the SOC segment, so that gives us a baseline business, average -- moving average business -- of a profitable business sized at that level.

我們在 SOC 領域擁有略多於三分之一的市場份額，因此這為我們提供了該級別盈利業務規模的基準業務、平均值（移動平均業務）。

Now what would cause us to move that breakeven down, because our strategy is not to move that breakeven down, except for the things that we talked about earlier, which is the manufacturing efficiencies and the bits and pieces that you constantly press on in the overall cost structure.

現在是什麼導致我們將損益平衡點降低，因為我們的策略不是降低損益平衡點，除了我們之前討論過的事情，即製造效率以及您在整體中不斷強調的零碎內容成本結構。

What would cause us to move it down is if we don't continue to gain share.

如果我們不繼續增加份額，就會導致我們將其下調。

If we lose share in semiconductor test, obviously that would be something that would cause us to say, well, that strategy is not working, we have to take some of the strategy which would be more of a cost-based strategy.

如果我們失去了半導體測試的份額，顯然這會讓我們說，好吧，這個策略不起作用，我們必須採取一些更多基於成本的策略。

But I think until we have signals that we're not continuing to gain share in SOC test, we're going to keep the pedal to the metal and keep driving in this business.

但我認為，在我們收到訊號表明我們不會繼續在 SOC 測試中獲得份額之前，我們將繼續全力推動這項業務。

So that is more of a market share decision than it is broader market decision?

那麼這更多的是市場佔有率決定而不是更廣泛的市場決定？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I will make one other comment, and that is that our assumption here is that the market is going to have a CapEx rate that is reasonably low, historically low.

我還要發表另一項評論，那就是我們的假設是市場的資本支出率將相當低，處於歷史低點。

The last two years, it has been around 2 percent.

過去兩年，這一比例一直在 2% 左右。

Some of you will think back to when it was 2.5 or 3 percent.

你們中的一些人可能會回想起 2.5% 或 3% 的時候。

So everything I've talked about is on the assumption that the market is 2 percent.

所以我所說的一切都是基於市場 2% 的假設。

Now if that market and buy rate shifted to 1 percent, obviously everyone will be faced with a different R&D structure, and we would be too.

現在，如果市場和購買率轉向 1%，顯然每個人都將面臨不同的研發結構，我們也會如此。

But, we don't see that happening.

但是，我們沒有看到這種情況發生。

We certainly still see volatility, but we don't see that overall rate moving down into the 1 percent level.

我們當然仍然會看到波動，但我們不會看到整體利率下降到 1% 的水平。

If it did, we and others would have to reassess what level of engineering the marketplace would support.

如果確實如此，我們和其他人將不得不重新評估市場將支援何種程度的工程。

Until then, we're going to keep driving on the R&D side.

在那之前，我們將繼續推動研發。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

And your other question, Jim, the percent of SemiTest in our breakeven -- 330 would be about just under 60 percent; 58, 59 percent.

Jim，你的另一個問題是，SemiTest 在我們的損益平衡點中所佔的百分比 - 330 大約略低於 60%； 58、59%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Timothy Arcuri, Smith Barney.

提摩西·阿庫裡，史密斯·巴尼。

Hi, actually a couple of things.

嗨，實際上有幾件事。

Number one, how much of -- you had a big win at a major U.S.

第一，你在美國主要賽事中取得了一場大勝，有多少？

IDM, kind of a 30 to 40 system win for FLEX.

IDM，對於 FLEX 來說是 30 比 40 的系統勝利。

How much of that was in the bookings for December, or is most of that going to be in the bookings for March?

其中有多少是 12 月的預訂量，還是大部分是 3 月的預訂量？

Tim, I don't want to get into the segmenting what's happening at any particular accounts.

提姆，我不想對任何特定帳戶發生的情況進行細分。

The FLEX has had some successes in the last quarter.

FLEX 在上個季度取得了一些成功。

We have expanded the applications into the processor area with the FLEX, and so we are optimistic about it.

我們已經透過FLEX將應用擴展到處理器領域，所以我們對此持樂觀態度。

It's not a big chunk of the business yet.

這還不是業務的一大塊。

Okay.

好的。

So I guess basically in your prior comments about backlog and about how much you draw down in March, am I right in kind of when I kind of noodle through the numbers, you are effectively guiding book-to-bill above 1 in Q1?

因此，我想基本上在您之前關於積壓訂單以及三月份提款金額的評論中，當我對這些數字進行梳理時，我是否正確，您在第一季度有效地指導了訂單到賬單高於1 ？

Is that the right way to think about it?

這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Well, that's another way of saying where do we think the bookings, are of course.

好吧，這當然是我們認為預訂在哪裡的另一種說法。

I think it's very uncertain on where we are the systems front.

我認為我們在系統方面所處的位置非常不確定。

Every day, we get different information coming in and it's very hard to give you anything that you could hang your hat on.

每天，我們都會收到不同的訊息，很難為您提供任何可以信賴的訊息。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe moving onto breakeven then.

也許那時就會進入損益平衡狀態。

I had in my notes that we used to think that the 330 operating breakeven was going to be kind of in the June quarter, and now, it's in December.

我在筆記中提到，我們曾經認為 330 的營運損益平衡點將在 6 月季度實現，而現在是在 12 月。

Can you maybe walk us through a little bit about kind of what changed and what the moving parts were there?

您能否向我們介紹一下發生了什麼變化以及有哪些變化？

It has not changed, actually.

事實上，它並沒有改變。

We have said this is a path we're on that we're driving towards through 2005.

我們已經說過，這是我們 2005 年正在努力實現的目標。

Greg can talk a little bit about the trajectory of it and what the pieces are, though.

不過，格雷格可以談談它的發展軌跡以及各個部分。

Just confirming Mike's point, that we were careful on our last call to say that we had not allocated across the quarters, but it was the target in 2005 from a pro forma basis.

只是證實了麥克的觀點，我們在上次電話會議上很謹慎地表示，我們沒有在各個季度進行分配，但從準備考試的角度來看，這是 2005 年的目標。

There are 3 pieces, the 10 million I've talked a little bit about the FLEX, and that will happen throughout the year.

有 3 件，1000 萬件，我已經稍微談到了 FLEX，這將在全年發生。

And to make that happen, we need to continue to finish our work, which is done quite well on yields.

為了實現這一目標，我們需要繼續完成我們的工作，這在產量方面做得相當不錯。

Our board yields are up in the 90 percent level.

我們的董事會收益率上升到 90% 的水平。

That enables us to have less manufacturing test and we're able to put more of this product outside as well because it has been built on a modular basis.

這使我們能夠減少製造測試，並且我們也能夠將更多的產品放在外面，因為它是在模組化的基礎上建造的。

And it's much easier to configure and plan, so therefore, some of the infrastructure would need to come out.

而且配置和規劃要容易得多，因此需要推出一些基礎架構。

That happens over the next six months.

這將在接下來的六個月內發生。

Another 10 million piece, about 10 million, is in Connection Systems, and I'm rounding here a bit.

另外 1000 萬塊，大約 1000 萬塊是在連接系統中，我在這裡四捨五入了一下。

And they started to move their operations much more aggressively into low-cost regions.

他們開始更積極地將業務轉移到低成本地區。

Now they've always been a low-cost region, so this is not a new thought.

現在他們一直是低成本地區，所以這並不是一個新想法。

This is simply accelerating a move that would have occurred over a longer period of time.

這只是加速了本應在較長時間內發生的行動。

And with making that move, not only do you immediately get obviously lower labor costs, but the sources for material will be lower and you can imagine, there's a little bit of a lag in terms of getting that into the P&L, because we're not going to throw away the stuff we have.

透過採取這項舉措，您不僅會立即獲得明顯較低的勞動力成本，而且材料來源也會減少，您可以想像，將其納入損益表方面存在一點滯後，因為我們不會扔掉我們擁有的東西。

We're going to use up the material supplies at higher cost.

我們將以更高的成本耗盡材料供應。

So that is going to happen also throughout the year.

因此，這種情況全年都會發生。

And again, the full benefits start showing up towards the end of the year.

再說一次，全部好處將在年底開始顯現。

The other piece I would say is the other 10 million, so I'm at the 20 now.

我要說的另一部分是另外1000萬，所以我現在是20。

The other 20 -- other 10 million is really a mix of a bunch of a lot of little things, and then some more normal mix assumptions.

另外 20 個——另外 1000 萬個實際上是一堆很多小事情的混合，然後是一些更正常的混合假設。

And I think the mix assumptions we're making are not aggressive such that -- and we're counting on getting to a reasonable mix, not super favorable mix, and that last piece also is being worked and should occur mid part of 2005.

我認為我們所做的混合假設並不激進，以至於——我們指望得到一個合理的混合，而不是超級有利的混合，最後一項工作也正在進行中，應該會在 2005 年中期完成。

And there's ton of detail we're currenting (ph) and we will keep you updated next call.

我們正在提供大量詳細信息，我們將在下次通話時向您通報最新情況。

In terms of how it will come down, it will be more in the back end of the year, but you will see a gradual decline as the year goes on with the heavier piece in the back end.

就如何下降而言，今年下半年會更多，但隨著時間的推移，你會看到後端的較重部分逐漸下降。

Okay, and maybe just kind of a last one for you.

好吧，也許這只是你的最後一次。

Can you tell us what the breakeven is today, number one?

第一，可以告訴我們今天的損益平衡是多少嗎？

And number two, on the R&D line, I'm just kind of looking through my model.

第二，在研發方面，我只是在研究我的模型。

And the last time we were kind of bouncing along a bottom -- we were spending roughly 15 percent of sales on R&D.

上次我們觸底時，我們將大約 15% 的銷售額用於研發。

Now, we're up closer to 20 in March.

現在，3 月我們已經接近 20 名了。

How long can you maintain that high of R&D level?

這麼高的研發水準還能維持多久？

Let me first start with the breakeven, and then maybe Mike wants to take the R&D, because that's a longer discussion in terms of volatility and buy rate and size of the market.

讓我先從盈虧平衡開始，然後麥克可能想進行研發，因為這是關於波動性、購買率和市場規模的更長的討論。

But simply starting with the breakeven point question is -- our breakeven -- I have to start on a GAAP basis -- is $385 million in the first quarter on a GAAP basis.

但簡單地從損益平衡點問題開始——我們的損益平衡——我必須從公認會計準則的基礎上開始——以公認會計準則計算，第一季的損益平衡點是3.85億美元。

Now to convert that to how we generally think about it on an ongoing basis, we would take out the $13 million of restructuring charges.

現在，為了將其轉化為我們通常持續思考的方式，我們將扣除 1300 萬美元的重組費用。

And if we use a normal profit drop-through rate, that's about $25 million in revenue.

如果我們使用正常的利潤下降率，收入約為 2500 萬美元。

So therefore, in Q1, we would start with about a $360 million breakeven amount on a pro forma basis and --.

因此，在第一季度，我們預計將達到約 3.6 億美元的盈虧平衡點，並且——

Operating breakeven?

經營損益平衡？

Yes.

是的。

And that's why those three $10 million pieces I discussed earlier would get us to the 330 fourth quarter.

這就是為什麼我之前討論的三件 1000 萬美元的作品將使我們在第四季達到 330 件。

And your other question, Mike, do you want to?

還有你的另一個問題，麥克，你願意嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The question was -- how long can we spend at this R&D rate?

問題是──以這樣的研發速度，我們還能花多久時間？

That gets back to the overall view of the market and the cycles.

這又回到了對市場和週期的整體看法。

We have been spending about, in semiconductor test, about $50 million a quarter in R&D.

我們每季在半導體測試方面的研發支出約為 5,000 萬美元。

And that has been at the base of this market share gain objective that we have.

這是我們實現市場佔有率成長目標的基礎。

That rate we can sustain if we can continue to hold at this market share level or grow.

如果我們能夠繼續維持這個市場佔有率水準或成長，我們就可以維持這個速度。

And as I said before, the things that would cause you to change that would be if the momentum on market share turns negative, or if the overall buy rate declines.

正如我之前所說，如果市佔率的動能轉為負值，或是整體購買率下降，就會導致你做出改變。

At any point in time in this cycle kind of volatility that we have, that R&D expense is going to look very high at certain times; and at other times, it's going to look like it has a very good return.

在這個週期的任何時間點，我們都會遇到波動，研發費用在某些時候看起來會非常高；而在其他時候，它看起來會帶來非常好的回報。

So we look at it over the cycle, over this last fourth quarter part of the cycle; it has been the right strategy.

因此，我們會在整個週期中，在周期的最後第四季部分來審視它；這是正確的策略。

Okay, thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

Mark Fitzgerald, Banc of America Securities.

馬克·菲茨傑拉德，美國銀行證券公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike, in your opening comments, you sized the SOC test market at 3 billion, and you guys 30 percent.

Mike，在你的開場白中，你將 SOC 測試市場規模定為 30 億，而你們佔了 30%。

Is that last year's numbers basically?

這基本上是去年的數字嗎？

Last year, it was a bit above 3 billion.

去年，這個數字略高於30億。

The year we're talking about is 2004?

我們談的年份是2004年？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

That was 2004 where the semiconductor market was a bit over 150 billion for non-memory, and buy rate was 2 percent, right around 2 percent -- 2.05, something like that.

那是 2004 年，非記憶體領域的半導體市場規模略高於 1500 億美元，購買率為 2%，約為 2%——2.05，類似的數字。

That's our estimate, without all of the numbers in yet.

這是我們的估計，還沒有所有數字。

So, the short answer is yes.

所以，簡短的回答是肯定的。

That was our view, and that is the marketplace's view, I think, of the SOC segment in '04.

這是我們的觀點，我認為這也是市場對 04 年 SOC 細分市場的觀點。

And when you're giving us the breakeven at 210, that's a quarterly number, I assume, for the SemiTest business?

當您給我們 210 的損益平衡點時，我認為這是 SemiTest 業務的季度數字？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

So basically what you're saying is in the recovery, you're looking for kind of a 20 percent upside on a revenue base from your breakeven level here, assuming last year is kind of a normalized peak year?

所以基本上你所說的是在復甦中，假設去年是正常化的高峰年，你希望在盈虧平衡水平的基礎上實現 20% 的收入增長？

If you could say a bit more, Mark, why you are considering that?

如果你能多說一點，馬克，為什麼要考慮這個？

Well, if you look back and say last year was a recovery year for the semiconductor test business and this kind of 3 billion revenue number for SOC is realistic, then if we are to have another recovery to that level, your upsides would be 20 percent to the semiconductor business from your current run rate, which is 200 million a quarter?

好吧，如果你回顧過去，說去年是半導體測試業務的復甦年，而且 SOC 30 億的收入數字是現實的，那麼如果我們再次復蘇到這個水平，你的上漲空間將是 20%到半導體業務從你們目前的運行速度來看，是一個季度2億？

Yes.

是的。

And this may not be the most material point in the grand scheme of things, but that's breakeven -- 210 mark does come down with FLEX manufacturing later in the year, and is 210 is likely to be (technical difficulty) whether it's 195, 198; that's where will be for SemiTest in the fourth quarter.

這可能不是宏偉計劃中最重要的一點，但這就是收支平衡——今年晚些時候 FLEX 製造確實會降低 210 大關，無論是 195 還是 198，210 很可能是（技術難度） ;這就是第四季 SemiTest 的地點。

Okay.

好的。

And then the kind point I'm driving to here is that if we have a recovery like and the industry gets back to these levels that we saw in 2004 for you, will the profitability, given your breakeven level, match historical levels, given revenues are going to be 20 percent higher than what we're looking at right now?

然後我想說的是，如果我們出現復甦，並且行業回到我們在 2004 年為您看到的水平，考慮到您的盈虧平衡水平，盈利能力是否會與歷史水平相匹配，考慮到收入會比我們現在看到的高20% 嗎？

If we have a -- just for comparison -- if we have the same performance, in terms of revenue next year in 2004 versus this year, putting aside the restructuring charges, which -- (indiscernible) you can't, because they are real charges.

如果我們有——只是為了比較——如果我們有相同的表現，就明年的收入而言，2004 年與今年相比，撇開重組費用，這是——（難以辨別）你不能，因為它們是實際收費。

But if you also looked at it without the restructuring charges, we would be more profitable as a general statement as our breakeven level with the lower on an average basis throughout the year.

但如果你也考慮一下沒有重組費用的情況，作為一般報表，我們的獲利能力會更高，因為我們的損益平衡水準全年平均較低。

We certainly would, at the end of the year, closing Q4 at 330 target breakeven is very different than where we're starting this year.

我們當然會在今年年底以 330 的目標損益平衡點結束第四季度，這與我們今年開始的目標有很大不同。

So my conclusion would be, we would be ending the year in a much better position for earnings in the future and the full year with like revenues could be slightly more profitable.

所以我的結論是，我們將以更好的未來獲利狀況結束今年，在類似收入的情況下，全年獲利可能會略高一些。

And you would not have to add cost to do the billion dollars in revenues or so?

您不需要增加成本來實現數十億美元左右的收入嗎？

There would be very, very little cost would have to be added.

需要增加的成本非常非常少。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

And then just one quick question to Greg.

然後向格雷格提出一個簡短的問題。

With the NOLs still underutilized here at this point, what would your book value be at this point, if you rolled NOLs back into the book?

由於此時 NOL 仍未充分利用，如果您將 NOL 重新計入帳面，此時您的帳面價值會是多少？

That would be $291 million.

那將是2.91億美元。

And that includes foreign tax credits and so forth.

這包括外國稅收抵免等等。

The U.S.

美國

NOLs, there is 150; with the tax credits, it's 291 million of an asset off the books.

NOL，有 150 個；加上稅收抵免，帳外資產為 2.91 億美元。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Theodore O'Neill, Wells Fargo.

西奧多·奧尼爾，富國銀行。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just a quick one, and I apologize if I missed it.

只是很快，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。

Can you tell us what the percentage of sales were the FLEX product this quarter?

您能否告訴我們本季 FLEX 產品的銷售額百分比是多少？

No, we don't break down sales on a product basis, Theodore.

不，我們不會根據產品來細分銷售額，西奧多。

Alright.

好吧。

I thought you did last quarter, but I may be mistaken.

我以為你上個季度就這麼做了，但我可能錯了。

I don't think we've done that at any time in the past.

我認為我們過去從未這樣做過。

And the good news with FLEX this quarter is the FLEX units are higher than last quarter.

本季 FLEX 的好消息是 FLEX 數量高於上季。

So in a down market, FLEX actually -- there are more units for FLEX this quarter than last quarter.

因此，在低迷的市場中，FLEX 實際上 - 本季的 FLEX 單位數量比上季要多。

That's the good news from my perspective.

從我的角度來看，這是個好消息。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of the allotted time for questions and answers.

女士們先生們，我們已經到了規定的提問和回答時間。

I will now turn back over for closing comments.

我現在將返回以發表結束評論。

We'd like to thank all of you for participating in the call and your interest in the Company, and we'll see you next quarter.

我們要感謝大家參加電話會議以及對公司的興趣，我們下季再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連線。