Scorpio Tankers Inc (STNG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

And welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers 2024 年第四季電話會議。所有參與者將處於只聽模式。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the call over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and IR. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話轉給企業發展和投資者關係主管 James Doyle。先生，請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Emanuele Lauro, Chief Executive Officer; Robert Bugbee, President; Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating Officer; Chris Avella, Chief Financial Officer; Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer.

感謝您今天加入我們。歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有執行長 Emanuele Lauro； Robert Bugbee，總裁；卡梅倫‧麥基 (Cameron Mackey)，營運長；克里斯‧阿維拉 (Chris Avella)，財務長； Lars Dencker Nielsen，首席商務長。

Earlier today, we issued our fourth quarter earnings press release, which is available on our website, scorpiotankers.com. The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, February 13, 2025, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements.

今天早些時候，我們發布了第四季度收益新聞稿，可在我們的網站 scorpiotankers.com 上查閱。本次電話會議中討論的資訊是基於截至 2025 年 2 月 13 日的信息，可能包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類聲明中所述的結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release as well as Scorpio Tankers' SEC filings, which are available at scorpiotankers.com and sec.gov. All participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the Internet and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website for approximately 14 days. We will be giving a short presentation today.

有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，您應該查看收益新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明披露以及 Scorpio Tankers 的 SEC 文件，這些文件可在 scorpiotankers.com 和 sec.gov 上查閱。請所有參與者註意，本次電話會議的音訊正在網路上現場直播，同時也會錄製以供播放。網路直播的存檔將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供約 14 天。今天我們將做一個簡短的演講。

The presentation is available at scorpiotankers.com on the Investor Relations page under Reports and Presentations. The slides will also be available on the webcast. After the presentation, we will go to Q&A. For those asking questions, please limit the number of questions to two. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue.

您可在 scorpiotankers.com 的「投資者關係」頁面的「報告和簡報」下找到該簡報。幻燈片也將在網路直播中提供。演講結束後，我們將進入問答環節。對於提問的人，請將問題數量限制為兩個。如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入佇列。

Now I'd like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, Emanuele Lauro.

現在我想介紹我們的執行長 Emanuele Lauro。

Thank you, James. Good morning or good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for being with us today. We are pleased to report a strong quarter and a strong year of financial results. In the fourth quarter, the company generated $105 million in adjusted EBITDA and $30 million in adjusted net income.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。大家早安、下午好，感謝大家今天的來訪。我們很高興地報告本季和本年度強勁的財務業績。第四季度，該公司調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.05 億美元，調整後的淨收入為 3,000 萬美元。

For the full year 2024, we've generated $842 million in adjusted EBITDA and $513 million in adjusted net income. 2024 was another transformational year for Scorpio Tankers financially, operationally and strategically. We have significantly strengthened our balance sheet by reducing indebtedness by $740 million, expanding our revolving debt capacity and lowering our daily cash breakevens to $12,500 per day.

2024 年全年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 8.42 億美元，調整後淨收入為 5.13 億美元。 2024 年是 Scorpio Tankers 在財務、營運和策略上又一個轉型之年。我們透過減少 7.4 億美元的債務、擴大循環債務能力以及將每日現金損益平衡點降低至 12,500 美元，顯著增強了我們的資產負債表。

Our liquidity now stands at $1.3 billion, comprising of $531 million in cash and $788 million in undrawn revolving capacity. For clarity, this excludes our investments in DHT. Operationally, we completed the special surveys and dry docking of 54 vessels during 2024. This is more than half of our fleet. Following these dry docks, these vessels will operate more efficiently and no longer need repositioning voyages solely for their dry docks, which adversely impact earnings. In addition, we sold 12 vessels at attractive prices, many of which were older vessels and thereby improving the age profile of the fleet.

我們的流動資金目前為 13 億美元，其中包括 5.31 億美元現金和 7.88 億美元未提取的循環信貸額度。為了清楚起見，這不包括我們對 DHT 的投資。在營運方面，我們在 2024 年完成了 54 艘船舶的特別檢驗和乾船塢。這占我們機隊的一半以上。進入乾船塢後，這些船舶將更有效率地運行，不再需要專門為進入乾船塢而重新定位航行，從而避免對收益產生不利影響。此外，我們還以優惠價格出售了 12 艘船隻，其中許多是較舊的船隻，從而改善了船隊的船齡狀況。

We balance our constructive market outlook with the understanding that cyclical downturns in our industry are often triggered by unexpected black swan events, COVID-19 being a prime example of it. As a result, we want to maintain financial flexibility and position the company to thrive under any rate environment. That said, with a strong balance sheet, we can also act opportunistically.

我們在保持建設性市場前景的同時，也意識到產業的周期性衰退往往由意外的黑天鵝事件引發，而新冠肺炎就是一個典型的例子。因此，我們希望保持財務靈活性，並使公司在任何利率環境下都能蓬勃發展。話雖如此，如果擁有強大的資產負債表，我們也可以採取機會行動。

During the year, we returned $419 million to shareholders, $336 million of share repurchases and $84 million in dividends. Recently, we increased our stake in the crude tanker company, DHT, capitalizing on its share price lag relative to improving market fundamentals and rates. We continue to view this as an attractive investment opportunity. Our outlook for both crude oil and refined products remains positive. With low leverage, strong liquidity and a young fleet, we believe we are exceptionally well-positioned.

本財年，我們向股東返還了 4.19 億美元，回購了 3.36 億美元的股票，並發放了 8,400 萬美元的股息。最近，我們增持了原油輪公司 DHT 的股份，利用該公司股價相對於不斷改善的市場基本面和費率的滯後優勢。我們繼續認為這是一個有吸引力的投資機會。我們對原油和成品油的前景依然樂觀。憑藉低槓桿、強勁的流動性和年輕的船隊，我們相信我們處於非常有利的地位。

With this, my remarks are concluded, and I would like to turn the call to Robert Bugbee.

我的演講到此結束，現在我想把電話轉給羅伯特‧布格比 (Robert Bugbee)。

Thanks, Emmanuel. Good morning, everybody or good afternoon. I think this morning, what we're going to do is try and -- sort of, separate what we know about, what we believe that we have strong conviction about from, let's say, the things that we really don't know that are speculative or even hypothetical.

謝謝，伊曼紐。大家早安或下午好。我認為今天早上我們要做的是嘗試——將我們所知道的、我們所堅信的與我們真正不知道的、只是推測甚至是假設的事情區分開來。

What we know about our company is that on the Q1 book guidance, we can see that we are operating cash positive and profitable. The operating cash, remember, is what's actually given to us as shareholders. The operating cash for us is the most important matrix as opposed to EPS. We have very strong current liquidity. We have even stronger undrawn liquidity.

我們對公司的了解是，根據第一季的帳面指引，我們可以看到我們的經營現金為正且獲利。請記住，營運現金其實是給予我們股東的。對我們來說，與每股盈餘相比，營運現金是最重要的矩陣。我們目前的流動性非常強勁。我們擁有更強勁的未提取流動性。

We are fully financed for years to come and have no new building CapEx requirements. We are complete -- as Emmanuel said, we are completing an extensive period of dry docking this quarter, which will result in lower dry dock costs, more on-hire days and more efficient vessels over the next three years. So when you think of that in comparison to the last 15 months, this is an asset going forward.

我們未來幾年的資金充足，沒有新的建築資本支出要求。我們已經完成——正如 Emmanuel 所說，我們本季將完成大量乾船塢工作，這將在未來三年內降低乾船塢成本、增加租用天數並提高船舶效率。因此，與過去 15 個月相比，這是一項未來的資產。

We have very low cash breakeven -- operating cash breakevens, and we will work even to take those lower. This is what we know and sure about, about the company. We also know that we have created optionality to make the best of the opportunities ahead.

我們的現金損益平衡點－經營現金損益平衡點非常低，我們會努力降低這個水準。這就是我們對該公司了解並且確信的事情。我們也知道，我們已經創造了可選性，以充分利用未來的機會。

We are very constructive on the product market itself. However, we are also cognizant of our inability to either control, predict or even understand right now geopolitical events or various announcements, changes in emotion, et cetera or different tweets or policies. And it's not that we do not know -- it's not just that we do not know the answers. It is in many cases that I do not think right now, we even know the questions. So we see no urgency, nor necessity to have nor to give clarity on capital allocation other than to say our present thinking is as follows; we will not change our dividend policy. We will not pay out an extraordinary dividend. We are not thinking of ordering or acquiring ships. We are ready, however, to buy our own shares if we think we should. We are willing to invest a small amount of capital in adjacent market companies.

我們對產品市場本身非常有建設性。然而，我們也意識到我們無法控制、預測甚至理解當前的地緣政治事件或各種公告、情緒變化等或不同的推文或政策。這並不是說我們不知道——這並不是說我們不知道答案。在很多情況下，我認為現在我們甚至不知道這些問題。因此，我們認為沒有必要也沒有必要明確資本配置，只能說我們目前的想法如下：我們不會改變我們的股利政策。我們不會派發特別股息。我們沒有考慮訂購或收購船舶。然而，如果我們認為有必要，我們也準備好回購自己的股票。我們願意向鄰近的市場公司投資少量資金。

This is not an either/or choice. We can see from our balance sheet that we could have if we wanted to have bought our own shares in addition to acquiring DHT. They are different, however. The former acquisition of DHT remained on the balance sheet as an asset. It's an asset. It is -- so for us, it's okay to go ahead and do this because it remains as an asset.

這不是一個非此即彼的選擇。從我們的資產負債表中我們可以看出，除了收購 DHT 之外，如果我們願意的話，還可以購買我們自己的股票。然而，它們是不同的。先前收購的 DHT 仍保留在資產負債表上作為一項資產。這是一種資產。是的——所以對我們來說，繼續這樣做是可以的，因為它仍然是一項資產。

We have prioritized very clearly creating an extremely strong balance sheet with great liquidity and the ability to take advantage of any opportunities. We will continue to monitor changing policy events and focus on the safe operation of our vessels. We simply cannot trade the change in short-term sentiment and emotion, but we do expect to be a beneficiary as the risk premiums in the future come down.

我們的首要任務非常明確，那就是創建一個極其強勁的資產負債表，具有良好的流動性和利用任何機會的能力。我們將繼續關注不斷變化的政策事件，並關注船舶的安全運作。我們根本無法交易短期情緒和情緒的變化，但我們確實期望在未來風險溢價下降時成為受益者。

Thank you very much. I'll now pass this back to James and Chris.

非常感謝。我現在將這個轉交回給詹姆斯和克里斯。

Thank you, Robert. If we could please go to Slide 7. As Emmanuel and Robert highlighted, the market outlook is constructive. And at today's rates, product tankers are generating strong free cash flow. Recent shifts in political leadership, coupled with tariffs, sanctions, and other geopolitical developments have increased uncertainty, not only in our markets but across global markets. This has created a volatile start to the year, but the underlying market fundamentals remain positive.

謝謝你，羅伯特。如果可以的話，請翻到第 7 張投影片。正如 Emmanuel 和 Robert 所強調的，市場前景是建設性的。以現今的運價，成品油輪正產生強勁的自由現金流。最近政治領導層的變動，加上關稅、制裁和其他地緣政治發展，增加了不確定性，不僅在我們的市場，而且在全球市場。這導致今年年初市場動盪，但基本面仍保持正面。

Demand for refined products remains strong. Global inventories are below their five-year average, refinery closures are accelerating, and the fleet continues to age, all of this contributing to a constructive outlook for the product tanker market.

對精煉產品的需求依然強勁。全球庫存低於五年平均水平，煉油廠關閉速度正在加快，船隊繼續老化，所有這些都為成品油輪市場的前景帶來了積極的影響。

Slide 8, please. Demand continues to grow. This year, we expect demand for refined products to increase by close to 1 million barrels per day. We are seeing this demand strength in seaborne exports, which averaged over 20 million barrels per day in January, near record levels. Furthermore, it's not just the volume of exports that has grown, but the distance these barrels are traveling has also increased.

請看第 8 張投影片。需求持續成長。今年，我們預計成品油需求量將增加近100萬桶/日。我們看到海運出口的需求強勁，1月海運出口平均每天超過2000萬桶，接近歷史最高水準。此外，不僅出口量增加了，運輸距離也增加了。

Slide 9, please. Compared to 2019 levels, last year, ton-mile demand increased 15%, excluding Russia and 18% when including Russia. Much of this due to changes in refining capacity, which have been reshaping global trade flows over the last decade.

請看第 9 張投影片。與 2019 年的水準相比，去年，噸英里需求增加了 15%（不包括俄羅斯），而包括俄羅斯則成長了 18%。這在很大程度上歸因於煉油產能的變化，過去十年來煉油產能的變化重塑了全球貿易流。

This year, 2 million barrels of refining capacity is expected to close, and many of these older refineries require significant capital investment to remain operational. And this makes it harder for them to compete with newer refineries in regions like the Middle East and Asia that have lower operating costs. As a result, we expect more refining capacity to close, which will add incremental ton-miles as lost production is replaced with imports.

今年預計將有 200 萬桶的煉油能力關閉，其中許多舊煉油廠需要大量資本投入才能維持營運。這使得它們更難與中東和亞洲等營運成本較低的地區較新的煉油廠競爭。因此，我們預計將有更多煉油能力被關閉，而由於損失的產量被進口量所取代，這將增加噸英里數。

Slide 10, please. On January 15th, Israel and Hamas agreed to a six-week temporary cease fire. In response, the Houthi has announced a pause in attacks on non-Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea. This situation remains fragile, and it's unclear how the temporary cease fire will evolve and how the Houthis will respond. As of now, product tankers continue to bypass the Suez Canal and transit around the Cape of Good Hope.

請看第 10 張投影片。1月15日，以色列與哈馬斯同意實施為期六週的臨時停火。作為回應，胡塞武裝宣布暫停襲擊穿越紅海的非以色列船隻。局勢依然脆弱，目前還不清楚臨時停火將如何發展以及胡塞武裝將如何應對。截至目前，成品油輪繼續繞過蘇伊士運河，繞過好望角。

Slide 11, please. Last week, the U.S. announced 10% tariffs on Canadian and 25% tariffs on Mexican energy imports, which were then postponed for 30 days. Although the U.S. is the world's largest producer of crude oil, most of its output is light sweet crude, while the domestic refineries are optimized for heavier crude blends.

請看第 11 張投影片。上週，美國宣布對加拿大能源進口徵收10%的關稅，對墨西哥能源進口徵收25%的關稅，隨後延後30天。儘管美國是世界上最大的原油生產國，但其大部分產量是輕質低硫原油，而國內煉油廠則針對重質原油混合物進行了最佳化。

The U.S. currently imports 4 million barrels per day of heavy crude from Canada and 500,000 barrels per day from Mexico. Of this, 1 million barrels per day arrived via ship and the other 3.5 million via pipeline.

美國目前每天從加拿大進口 400 萬桶重質原油，每天從墨西哥進口 50 萬桶重質原油。其中，每天100萬桶透過船舶運輸，另外350萬桶透過管道運輸。

Seaborne crude imports could be replaced from further away, but it would be difficult to replace Canadian pipeline imports into PADD 2. From a product standpoint, increasing the crude cost for PADD 2 refiners could reduce refinery runs and require additional seaborne product imports to the Northeast U.S.

海運原油進口可以從更遠的地方替代，但很難取代加拿大管道進口到PADD 2。從產品角度來看，PADD 2 煉油廠的原油成本增加可能會減少煉油廠的運作量，並需要向美國東北部進口更多的海運產品。

The U.S. also imports 260,000 barrels of refined products from Canada each day. If disrupted, imports would likely need to be replaced and come from Europe. In addition, the U.S. exports 570,000 barrels of refined product to Mexico each day, which if diverted elsewhere would increase ton miles. Mexico, in turn, would also then need to replace from more distant suppliers.

美國每天也從加拿大進口26萬桶成品油。如果出現中斷，進口可能需要替代並來自歐洲。此外，美國每天向墨西哥出口57萬桶成品油，如果這些成品油被轉移到其他地方，將會增加噸英里數。反過來，墨西哥也需要從更遠的供應商進行替代。

While the final status of these tariffs remains uncertain, they could significantly reshape crude and product flows by elevated -- by increasing shipping distances and shifting trade patterns.

雖然這些關稅的最終狀態仍不確定，但它們可能會透過增加運輸距離和改變貿易模式，顯著重塑原油和產品流動。

Slide 12, please. In early January, OFAC announced sanctions on an additional 157 tankers, which were predominantly carrying Russian crude and some refined product. In 2024, China and India imported 3 million barrels a day of crude oil from Russia, 60% of Russian crude exports.

請看第 12 張投影片。1 月初，OFAC 宣布對另外 157 艘油輪實施制裁，這些油輪主要運載俄羅斯原油和一些成品油。2024年，中國和印度每天從俄羅斯進口300萬桶原油，佔俄羅斯原油出口的60%。

And last week, Trump announced sanctions targeting individuals, companies and tankers involved in shipping Iranian oil to China. These actions are consistent with Trump's strategy to put pressure on Iran and reduce its oil exports. Under Trump's last term, Iranian crude exports fell to 300,000 barrels per day while rising to 1.7 million barrels per day under Biden.

上週，川普宣布針對參與向中國運送伊朗石油的個人、公司和油輪實施制裁。這些舉動與川普對伊朗施壓、減少其石油出口的策略一致。在川普上任期間，伊朗原油出口量下降至每天 30 萬桶，在拜登任內則升至每天 170 萬桶。

Today, the total OFAC sanctioned tanker fleet is almost 11% of the crude tanker fleet and 5% of the product tanker fleet. Any reduction in sanctioned vessels transporting crude and refined products is constructive for non-sanctioned vessels and can also accelerate the scrapping of older tonnage.

如今，OFAC 批准的油輪總數約佔原油油輪總數的 11%，佔成品油油輪總數的 5%。減少運送原油和成品油的受制裁船隻數量對非受制裁船隻來說都是有益的，也可以加速老舊船隻的報廢。

Slide 13. Since the EU's February 2023 price cap on Russian refined products, European imports have declined from 1.1 million barrels a day to 400,000 barrels per day. Nevertheless, Russian exports have remained steady with Africa, Latin America and the Middle East absorbing more barrels.

幻燈片 13。自歐盟2023年2月對俄羅斯成品油價格設定上限以來，歐洲進口量已從每天110萬桶下降到每天40萬桶。儘管如此，俄羅斯的出口仍保持穩定，非洲、拉丁美洲和中東吸收了更多的石油。

489 product tankers have carried Russian products since 2024, many of which are older vessels and predominantly loading Russian product. If there is a peace agreement, it's unclear whether Europe would increase Russian product imports.

自 2024 年以來，共有 489 艘成品油輪運載俄羅斯產品，其中許多都是較舊的船隻，主要裝載俄羅斯產品。如果達成和平協議，目前還不清楚歐洲是否會增加俄羅斯產品的進口。

And if they do, many of the vessels, which have been predominantly serving Russia will have a difficult time serving Western markets given their age, trading history, maintenance and insurance limitations. The 1.4 million barrels of Russian product exports per day could benefit non-sanctioned vessels, which have not been trading in Russia.

一旦如此，許多主要服務於俄羅斯的船舶將因其年齡、貿易歷史、維護和保險限製而難以服務西方市場。俄羅斯每日140萬桶成品油出口可能會使那些未在俄羅斯進行貿易的非制裁船隻受益。

Slide 14. And relevant to this, the total addressable market diminishes as vessels age. The trading pattern of MR vessels built in 2004 clearly demonstrate this decline. At 12 years old, these vessels carried 3.2 million barrels of refined product per year. By the time they reach 20 years old, they carried 1.9 barrels per year, a decline of 40%. And one could argue that without the Russian volumes, this number would probably be closer to 1.2 million barrels, a decline of 60% compared to 12 years old. By 2027, more than 1,000 ships will be older than 20 years. Thus, even without scrapping, effective fleet growth could be lower than anticipated as older vessels transport less refined product.

幻燈片 14。與此相關的是，隨著船舶老化，整體可尋址市場規模會縮小。2004年建造的MR型船舶的交易模式清楚地顯示了這種下降趨勢。這些船舶已服役 12 年，每年可運輸 320 萬桶成品油。等到這些油井使用 20 年後，每年的石油產量只有 1.9 桶，下降了 40%。有人可能會說，如果沒有俄羅斯的產量，這個數字可能接近 120 萬桶，與 12 年前相比下降了 60%。到2027年，將有1000多艘船齡超過20年的船舶。因此，即使沒有報廢船隻，由於老船運輸的成品油較少，有效船隊成長也可能低於預期。

Slide 15. While the order book now accounts for 20% of the fleet, half the order book is LR2 vessels. Today, 45% of LR2s operate in the crude oil market, and we expect this to continue given the larger crude oil trade. By 2027, including all the newbuilds, 25% of the fleet will be older than 20 years. Many are underestimating the impacts of an aging fleet and overestimating the capacity of the current order book.

幻燈片 15。雖然目前訂單量佔船隊總量的20%，但其中一半訂單是LR2型船舶。目前，45% 的 LR2 在原油市場上運營，鑑於原油貿易的擴大，我們預計這一情況還將繼續。到 2027 年，包括所有新建船舶在內，25% 的船舶年齡將超過 20 年。許多人低估了船隊老化的影響並高估了當前訂單的容量。

Slide 16, please. Last year, ton-mile demand increased 8% and over the last 30 years has increased at a compound annual growth rate of over 3%. If all newbuild LR2 vessels were to operate in the clean market, fleet growth would average around 4% annually over the next three years.

請看第 16 張投影片。去年，噸英里需求增加了 8%，過去 30 年的複合年增長率超過 3%。如果所有新建的LR2型船舶都在清潔市場運營，未來三年船隊成長率將平均達到4%左右。

However, effective fleet growth could be closer to 2.8% per year when factoring in LR2s servicing the crude oil trade and mild scrapping as a proxy for reductions in older tonnage. Several catalysts such as tariffs, sanctions and broader geopolitical developments could further tighten supply and increase ton miles. Nevertheless, even without these factors, the supply-demand balance is favorable and supportive of our constructive market outlook.

然而，如果將服務於原油貿易的LR2型油船和輕度報廢油船作為老舊船舶噸位減少的代表，有效船隊增長率可能接近每年2.8%。關稅、制裁和更廣泛的地緣政治發展等多種催化劑可能會進一步收緊供應並增加噸英里數。儘管如此，即使沒有這些因素，供需平衡仍然是有利的，並支持我們建設性的市場前景。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

現在我將把話題交給克里斯。

Thank you, James. Good morning or good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。大家早安或下午好。

Fli 18, please.

請搭乘 18 號班機。

This past year we have generated $842 million in adjusted EBITDA and $669 million in net income on an IFRS basis.

去年，我們根據 IFRS 準則實現了 8.42 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 6.69 億美元的淨收入。

Our net income for the year includes a $177 million dollar gain on the sale of 12 vessels.

我們今年的淨收入包括出售 12 艘船舶的 1.77 億美元收益。

Most of these vessels were older vintage, with 11 of the 12 vessels being almost 10 years of age or greater.

這些船隻大多數都是老舊的，12 艘船中有 11 艘的船齡接近 10 年或更久。

These vessels were sold at cyclically high prices.

這些船舶以周期性高價出售。

These results have enabled us to continue to strengthen our balance sheet by reducing our debt levels by $740 million.

這些結果使我們能夠透過將債務水準降低 7.4 億美元來繼續加強我們的資產負債表。

In addition to this, during 2024, we have paid $84 million in dividends and purchased $336 million of the company's common stock in the open market.

除此之外，2024年，我們還支付了8,400萬美元的股息，並在公開市場上購買了價值3.36億美元的公司普通股。

Next slide please.

請播放下一張投影片。

During the fourth quarter and thus far in the 1st quarter of 2025, we continue to take steps to strengthen our balance sheet.

在第四季度以及迄今為止的 2025 年第一季度，我們將繼續採取措施加強我們的資產負債表。

The chart on the left shows our liquidity profile.

左邊的圖表顯示了我們的流動性狀況。

We have access to over $1.3 billion in liquidity as of the date of this press release.

截至本新聞稿發布之日，我們擁有超過 13 億美元的流動資金。

This is over $1.4 billion if you include our investment in DHT.

如果算上我們對 DHT 的投資，這個數字將超過 14 億美元。

This level of liquidity was made partially possible by the recent execution of a new $500 million dollar revolving credit facility, which is secured by 26 of our previously unencumbered vessels.

這種流動性水準的部分原因是最近執行了一項新的 5 億美元循環信貸安排，該安排由我們 26 艘之前未受抵押的船隻擔保。

While it is currently undrawn, this facility bears a low cost of debt with a margin of 185 basis points when drawn, and a 7-year tenure with no amortization for the 1st 2 years.

儘管目前尚未提取，但該筆貸款的債務成本較低，提取時的保證金為 185 個基點，期限為 7 年，前 2 年無需攤銷。

Through the execution of this facility, we have locked in access to low cost secured financing through February of 2032.

透過執行這項措施，我們已鎖定獲得低成本擔保融資的管道，直至 2032 年 2 月。

The chart on the right shows the progression of our net debt since December 31, 2021, which has declined almost $2.4 billion to a net debt balance of just $537 million as of the date of this press release.

右側的圖表顯示了自 2021 年 12 月 31 日以來我們的淨債務變化情況，截至本新聞稿發布之日，淨債務餘額已減少近 24 億美元，僅為 5.37 億美元。

While having low leverage as a demonstration of financial strength, this capital structure also affords us the flexibility to move quickly when windows of opportunity present themselves to further optimize our cost of capital.

低槓桿率是財務實力的體現，這種資本結構也使我們能夠在機會出現時靈活地迅速採取行動，進一步優化我們的資本成本。

Our entrance into the Nordic bond market in January of this year demonstrates our willingness to seize such an opportunity.

我們今年一月進入北歐債券市場，表明我們願意抓住這樣的機會。

Next slide please.

請播放下一張投影片。

The chart on the left of this slide shows our outstanding debt by type.

此投影片左側的圖表顯示了我們按類型劃分的未償債務。

As we've previously emphasized, our strategy has been to shift away from expensive low flexibility lease financing into more flexible, lower cost bank lending.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們的策略是從昂貴的低靈活性租賃融資轉向更靈活、成本更低的銀行貸款。

Moreover, we have sought a diverse capital structure with multiple sources of funding and flexibility.

此外，我們尋求多元化的資本結構，具有多種資金來源和靈活性。

As we previously announced, we recently issued $200 million of 5-year senior unsecured notes at a 7.5% coupon in the Nordic bond market.

正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們最近在北歐債券市場以 7.5% 的票面利率發行了 2 億美元的 5 年期無擔保高級票據。

A portion of the proceeds from this bond offering will be used to redeem our existing $71 million dollar senior unsecured notes, which are due to mature in June of this year.

此次債券發行所得款項的一部分將用於贖回我們現有的 7,100 萬美元無擔保優先票據，該票據將於今年 6 月到期。

While these bonds could have easily been retired using our existing liquidity, the refinancing of these bonds with the bond issuance in the Nordic markets was a compelling opportunity for us to diversify our capital structure into the Nordic fixed income market.

雖然這些債券可以利用我們現有的流動資金輕鬆贖回，但透過在北歐市場發行債券對這些債券進行再融資，對於我們將資本結構多元化到北歐固定收益市場來說是一個極具吸引力的機會。

Over the past year, corporate credit spreads have tightened given developments in the interest rate environment and the strengthening of corporate balance sheets.

過去一年，隨著利率環境的變化和企業資產負債表的加強，企業信用利差有所收緊。

This is all set against the backdrop of a robust economic conditions around the world.

這一切都是在全球經濟狀況強勁的背景下發生的。

The combination of these favorable macro conditions coupled with a knowledgeable investor base in the Nordic markets opened a rare opportunity for us to lock in unsecured financing at a favorable cost and with favorable terms and conditions.

這些有利的宏觀條件加上北歐市場知識淵博的投資者基礎為我們提供了一個難得的機會，讓我們能夠以優惠的成本和優惠的條款和條件鎖定無擔保融資。

This bond issuance was a testament to our efforts on strengthening our balance sheet and credit profile over the past 3 years as it was well oversubscribed and set the record for the lowest credit spread for any shipping company issuing US dollar denominated bonds in the Nordic bond market.

本次債券發行證明了我們過去3年來在加強資產負債表和信用狀況方面所做的努力，獲得了超額認購，並創下了北歐債券市場發行美元計價債券的航運公司最低信用利差記錄。

The chart on the right shows a bridge of our outstanding debt through the end of March of 2025.

右側的圖表顯示了截至 2025 年 3 月底我們的未償債務狀況。

This bridge shows the deployment of a portion of the net proceeds of the Nordic bond to redeem our existing senior unsecured notes, with the resultant gross debt balance of $989 million.

這座橋樑顯示了使用北歐債券淨收益的一部分來贖回我們現有的無擔保優先票據，由此產生的總債務餘額為 9.89 億美元。

$353.7 million of this debt balance is drawn revolver debt under our $1 billion dollar credit facility and $225 million dollar credit facility.

353.7 美元其中，數百萬美元的債務餘額是我們 10 億美元信貸安排和 2.25 億美元信貸安排下的循環債務。

The enhancement of our liquidity position to the issuance of this Nordic bond has given us the ability to pay into these revolving credit facilities at our discretion, which would potentially have the combined effect of keeping liquidity readily available to redraw as needed and reducing debt service costs of both principal and interest to keep our cash break even rates low.

透過發行這筆北歐債券，我們的流動性狀況得到了增強，這使我們能夠自行決定支付這些循環信貸額度，從而有可能產生綜合效果，即保持流動性隨時可用，以便在需要時重新提取，並降低本金和利息的債務服務成本，從而使我們的現金盈虧平衡利率保持在較低水平。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Our debt repayment obligations through the end of 2025 are highly manageable at less than $15 million per quarter.

到 2025 年底，我們的債務償還義務是高度可控的，每季不到 1,500 萬美元。

This does not take into account any unscheduled repayments into revolving credit facilities that have not been committed as of today.

這還沒有考慮到截至今日尚未承諾的任何循環信貸安排的計劃外償還。

Additionally, the company has recently completed the periodic special surveys on over 50% of the fleet throughout 2024.

此外，該公司最近完成了對 2024 年超過 50% 船隊的定期特別調查。

Not only does this set the company up for a lighter dry dock schedule for 2025 with far fewer off-fire days, but the work performed during these dry docks is expected to enhance the operating efficiency of each vessel going forward.

這不僅使該公司在 2025 年的乾船塢計畫變得更輕鬆，停工天數大大減少，而且這些乾船塢期間進行的工作有望提高每艘船舶未來的運作效率。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

The strength of our balance sheet enables us to continue to generate excess cash flow, even in challenging rate environments given our low cash breakeven levels.

鑑於我們的現金損益平衡水準較低，即使在充滿挑戰的利率環境下，我們強勁的資產負債表也使我們能夠繼續產生超額現金流。

Further to this, our operating leverage positions us to benefit from spikes in spot rates that have been commonplace over the past 3 years.

此外，我們的經營槓桿使我們能夠從過去 3 年常見的現貨價格飆升中獲益。

To illustrate our cash generation potential at $20,000 per day, the company can generate up to $271 million in cash flow per year. At $30,000 per day, the company can generate up to $632 million in cash flow per year, and at $40,000 per day, the company can generate up to $994 million in cash flow per year.

為了說明我們每天 2 萬美元的現金創造潛力，公司每年可產生高達 2.71 億美元的現金流。如果以每天 3 萬美元計算，該公司每年可產生高達 6.32 億美元的現金流；如果以每天 4 萬美元計算，該公司每年可產生高達 9.94 億美元的現金流。

This concludes our presentation for today.

今天的演講到此結束。

Thank you everyone for your time and with that I'd like to call turn the call over to Q&A.

謝謝大家的時間，現在想將電話轉入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的奧馬爾諾克塔 (Omar Nokta)。

Thank you. Hey, guys, good morning, good afternoon. A lot of things are happening on the geo macro front. And Robert, I appreciate your comments about basically you’re sticking to the Scorpio strategy that's been ongoing, given all the unknowns. I guess maybe just sort of in terms of the sanctions that we've seen, James was talking about this in the presentation. Clearly, a few weeks ago, a big chunk of sanctions were put in place, especially on that midsized Aframax and LR2 segment, which if we count them, basically negate all the new buildings that deliver this year. So I guess the kind of the question is, have you noticed any change in trade flows as a result of this, whether from Russia or Iran or anything that suggests that there's been an impact thus far?

謝謝。嘿，大家早上好，下午好。地理宏觀方面發生了很多事情。羅伯特，我很欣賞你的評論，基本上你堅持一直在進行的天蠍座策略，考慮到所有的未知因素。我想也許只是就我們所看到的製裁而言，詹姆斯在演講中談到了這一點。顯然，幾週前，大量製裁措施已經到位，特別是針對中型阿芙拉型油輪和 LR2 型油輪，如果算上這些制裁措施，基本上抵消了今年交付的所有新船數量。所以我想問題是，你是否注意到貿易流量因此發生了任何變化，無論是來自俄羅斯還是伊朗，或者任何跡象表明迄今為止已經產生了影響？

I'll let Lars answer that. But the only comment I would make is that all these sanctions are -- there's the headline that the actual implementation and effect on the shipping rates is delayed. And Lars, you'd like to add whatever you think?

我請拉爾斯來回答這個問題。但我唯一想說的是，所有這些制裁措施——標題顯示，其實際實施和對運費的影響都被推遲了。拉爾斯，您還想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I would. Omar, first of all, this is the second round of sanctions, right? If we look at the first one, we only had 34, 35 ships that were of interest under the first sanctions round, and that had obviously a massive impact on the market. And as Robert said, it takes a little bit of time as that filters through.

是的，我會的。奧馬爾，首先，這是第二輪制裁，對嗎？如果我們看第一個，我們在第一輪制裁下只有 34 到 35 艘船受到關注，這顯然對市場產生了巨大影響。正如羅伯特所說，這需要一點時間才能完成。

The second round of sanctions is hitting a lot more ships, in particular, the ships that are in the midsize region. And there is no doubt that we have seen ships turning around, finding other places, there is an increase in storage, other ships are reroading, floating off the Mediterranean, waiting for STS of Turkey or Brazil, et cetera.

第二輪制裁影響的船舶更多，特別是中型船舶。毫無疑問，我們已經看到船隻掉頭，尋找其他地方，庫存增加，其他船隻改道，漂浮在地中海，等待土耳其或巴西的 STS 等等。

I think also it's going to be interesting to see as the wind-down period, in particular, for India, which has been a kind of a massive buyer of the Russian crude, how that is going to start to pan out as we move into March. There is no doubt that it's a lot of ships that are being sanctioned. There's a lot of ships. I think it's 7% of the entire fleet. And of Aframax’s, I think it's probably overall 13.4% of the sanctioned fleet. And we can see for sure that this as we move into kind of the next phase where suddenly this is being implemented in full that you will start seeing that there is going to be a constraint in supply in that segment.

我認為，觀察逐漸結束的階段也將很有趣，特別是對於印度而言，印度一直是俄羅斯原油的巨大買家，進入三月後，情況將如何發展。毫無疑問地有很多船隻受到了製裁。有很多船。我認為它佔整個船隊的7％。就阿芙拉型油輪而言，我認為其可能佔受制裁船隊的 13.4%。我們可以肯定地看到，隨著我們進入下一階段，這項計畫將突然全面實施，你將開始看到該領域的供應將受到限制。

So it is one to follow. We're not really seeing the actual hit on the rates yet, which did not anticipate that either because this follows kind of more or less the same kind of way that the first sanctions were hit as well. So you put the OPEC sanctions on Russia and you see you've got the Iranian angle or you've got all the different angles, there's no doubt that there is certainly a lot of interest in where this market might be heading.

因此，這是值得效法的。我們還沒有真正看到利率受到的實際影響，這也是我們也沒有預料到的，因為這與第一次製裁受到的影響大致相同。因此，如果你把歐佩克對俄羅斯的製裁考慮進去，你會發現你有伊朗的角度，或者你有各種不同的角度，毫無疑問，人們肯定會對這個市場的未來走向有濃厚的興趣。

Yes, makes sense. So it's still early in the process and something to stay tuned on. And just a follow-up separately. You underwent the dry dockings last year, I think 54 ships, if I recall correctly. That's more than, I think, the 27 that you were planning at least at the start of the year. So it sounds like you clearly brought a bunch forward. Can you give a sense of what drove you to do that last year?

是的，有道理。因此，該進程仍處於早期階段，值得繼續關注。接下來是單獨跟進。如果我沒記錯的話，去年你們進行了乾船塢維修，一共有 54 艘船。我認為，這比您至少在年初計劃的 27 個還要多。因此聽起來你顯然已經提出了很多建議。你能說說去年促使你這麼做的原因嗎？

Cam?

卡姆？

Yeah, I can take that. Omar, obviously, there's a fair bit of planning that goes into dry docking. And one of the primary issues is positioning an asset in the right place at the right time given that you have the Red Sea unavailable to us and a rather binary position about whether we're going to try and dry dock in parts of Europe or head out to China is our, say, our most favored position. So given all that planning and the collaboration with chartering about the commercial opportunities that exist at the time, we, on average, will try to move them up if the situations allow. And it also depends on our view of the market at the time, like a 60- to 90-day forward view.

是的，我可以接受。奧馬爾，顯然，幹船塢需要進行大量規劃。其中一個主要問題是，鑑於我們無法使用紅海，而我們是否試圖在歐洲部分地區進行乾船塢建設或前往中國是一個相當二元的立場，這是我們最有利的立場。因此，考慮到所有的規劃以及與租船公司就當時存在的商業機會進行的合作，如果情況允許，我們通常會嘗試提升這些機會。這也取決於我們當時對市場的看法，例如 60 到 90 天的前瞻性觀點。

I'd like to add something -- I'd like to add on that. I mean this probably from where I sit in terms of when we look at this forward planning on dry dock, which, of course, every shipping company has to undertake. It's obviously a big undertaking. And this is probably one of the largest extensive dry dock cycles that we've ever undertaken, doing 54 ships in 2024 is a massive effort. And clearly, once you get over that hump, you positioned yourself quite well for the future. We still have some additional dry docks in the first half of 2025, but there's no doubt that we're steadily moving ahead where we're coming to a point where the majority of our fleet is freshly dry docked and obviously optimized for the future.

我想補充一點——我想補充一點。我的意思是，這可能是從我所處的位置來看的，當我們考慮乾船塢的前瞻性規劃時，當然，這是每家航運公司都必須進行的。這顯然是一項大工程。這可能是我們有史以來進行的規模最大的大規模乾船塢週期之一，在 2024 年建造 54 艘船是一項艱鉅的任務。顯然，一旦你克服了這個困難，你就為未來做好了充分的準備。到 2025 年上半年，我們仍會有一些額外的乾船塢，但毫無疑問，我們正在穩步前進，即將達到這樣一個階段：我們的大多數船隊都剛剛進入乾船塢，並且顯然已經為未來進行了優化。

Thank you. Appreciate the comments. I will turn it over.

謝謝。感謝您的評論。我會把它翻過來。

John Chappell, Evercore ISI.

約翰‧查佩爾 (John Chappell)，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good morning. Chris, Robert said in his comments that you're going to continue to drive your cash breakevens lower. You've already done a ton of heavy lifting on the expense of lease financing. You've taken the new bond in Norway. There's cost inflation in the business. Can you help me understand how you're getting lower from the current levels from here? Is there anything you have to do with the capital structure? Or is it more along the lines of maybe efficiency of the fleet, et cetera?

謝謝。早安.克里斯，羅伯特在評論中表示，你將繼續降低現金損益平衡點。您已經在租賃融資費用方面做了很多繁重的工作。您已在挪威獲得了新債券。業務中存在成本膨脹。你能幫助我了解你從現在的水平開始下降的原因是什麼嗎？您是否與資本結構有什麼關係？或者它更多地涉及艦隊的效率等等？

Hi, Jon, yes. Well, efficiency of the fleet is one thing. I mean, I think you have to take into consideration that vessels coming out of dry dock are going to operate more efficiently. But the main thing is really on the financing, and I mentioned this, that we have over $350 million of drawn revolving credit. And some of that is amortizing. So if we take our liquidity position and pay into that, we could drive down our breakevens even further. And I think that's really sort of the area we would target going forward just on those two credit facilities.

嗨，喬恩，是的。嗯，艦隊的效率是一回事。我的意思是，我認為你必須考慮到從乾船塢出來的船隻將會運作得更有效率。但最重要的事情還是融資，我提到過，我們有超過 3.5 億美元的循環信貸。其中一部分是攤銷。因此，如果我們利用我們的流動性狀況並支付相應費用，我們就可以進一步降低我們的損益平衡點。我認為這確實是我們未來針對這兩項信貸安排所要關注的領域。

Okay. And then, James, for you, listen, I understand there's a lot going on right now. I get your point on the supply side maybe being overestimated. But rates are lower today than they were last year at this time. And basically, that's been the same thing for the last six months. So on slide 9, you have a nice ton-mile demand chart that goes back to the beginning of 2019. It's clearly off from the peak. So I guess the question is, is that cyclical in the sense that it continues to grind lower, especially if there is a change in the geopolitical landscape, including Russia? Or do you think it's on kind of a higher floor here where maybe we don't revisit the 2019 levels from a ton-mile demand standpoint?

好的。然後，詹姆斯，你聽著，我知道現在有很多事情發生。我明白你關於供應方面可能被高估的觀點。但如今的利率比去年同期低。基本上，過去六個月的情況一直是如此。因此，在幻燈片 9 上，您可以看到一張漂亮的噸英里需求圖表，可以追溯到 2019 年初。它顯然已經偏離了頂峰。所以我想問題是，這是否具有周期性，即它會持續走低嗎，特別是如果包括俄羅斯在內的地緣政治格局發生變化？或者您認為這裡的情況處於更高的水平，從噸英里需求的角度來看，我們可能不會重新審視 2019 年的水平？

James, maybe if I do that one. So first of all, Jon, I think that we don't even know the outcome, for example, of Russia a piece thing. We don't know if there will be piece, what form it will take, whether that piece will hold and indeed, whether or not it will affect ton miles. It's just a -- there's like the Russian piece trade is like, well, we'll make an assumption that everything goes back to where it was before and that's negative. And we don't necessarily buy into that. And as I said before, we cannot speculate on that part. I think that there are -- you're right. I don't think that you are going to -- I wouldn't use a base case that you're going to get a rate explosions and super high rates that we've had for two, three years. That's not a thing that we would have in terms of our forecast.

詹姆斯，也許如果我這麼做的話。首先，喬恩，我認為我們甚至不知道結果，例如俄羅斯的事情。我們不知道是否會出現碎片，會以何種形式出現，碎片是否會保留，以及是否會影響噸英里。這只是一個——就像俄羅斯的碎片貿易一樣，好吧，我們假設一切都回到了以前的樣子，這是負面的。但我們不一定認同這一點。正如我之前所說，我們無法對這一部分進行推測。我認為有——你是對的。我認為你不會——我不會使用基本情況來預測你將獲得我們已經經歷了兩三年的利率爆炸式增長和超高利率。就我們的預測而言，這並不會發生。

And that's also why we've been so focused on operating cash breakeven. But we don't need -- when we're taking down our operating cash breakeven so much and doing the things we need to do and deleverage the company, we don't need those rates that we had before to make good money.

這也是我們如此關注經營現金損益平衡的原因。但我們不需要－當我們大幅降低營運現金損益平衡點，並採取必要措施降低公司槓桿率時，我們不需要以前的那些利率來賺大錢。

So a $30,000 rate today or a $25,000 rate today is -- gives us much more bang for our buck in terms of operating cash than we've done before. So people can choose their own assumptions, but I think a wise assumption is that you may get periods because there's no guarantee we'll have any piece anywhere, for example, or even say a piece in one place will be good somewhere else, may have periods that you get very superior rates. But that's not a working position.

因此，今天 30,000 美元的利率或 25,000 美元的利率，在營運現金方面給我們帶來的回報比以前多得多。所以人們可以選擇自己的假設，但我認為一個明智的假設是，你可能會得到一個時期，因為不能保證我們在任何地方都會有任何作品，例如，甚至說一個地方的作品在其他地方會很好，可能會有一段時間你會得到非常優惠的價格。但這並不是一個工作職位。

You can see that in the time charter market going forward, which is still very healthy but people aren't paying time charters up in the 60s, 70s on LR2s. And that's the way I'd look at it. But at the same time, the stock isn't 80, -- neither the product tanker 80s. They're much more secure than where they were two years ago in terms of their leverage and their prices come off behind. So that doesn't mean you can't get great returns at lower rates.

您可以看到，在未來的定期租船市場中，它仍然非常健康，但人們不會為 LR2 支付 60 到 70 美元的定期租船費用。這就是我的看法。但同時，庫存不是80，成品油油輪也不是80。就槓桿率而言，它們比兩年前安全得多，而且價格也落後了。所以這並不意味著你不能以較低的利率獲得豐厚的回報。

Okay. Understood. Thanks, Robert.

好的。明白了。謝謝，羅伯特。

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America

美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter

Hi. Great. Good morning – good afternoon. Maybe, Robert, can you -- or Emanuele, can you talk about your investment in DHT, your thoughts on moving into the crude market, why them particularly in terms of your expanded investment? Is that a view on management? Is it a view on net asset value on that part of the fleet? Maybe just some thoughts there.

你好。偉大的。早安，下午好。也許，羅伯特，你能——或者伊曼紐爾，你能談談你在 DHT 的投資，你對進入原油市場的想法，以及為什麼特別是在擴大投資方面？這是管理觀點嗎？這是對該部分船隊淨資產價值的看法嗎？或許只是一些想法而已。

Sure. we've seen a period of two, three years where VLCC's earnings have just been disappointing. There's been a lot of hope from analysts, the actual VLCC owners and we've always stated. We've stated consistently up until quite recently that we expected even some of our smaller MRs to outperform VLCCs, and that was the case. And however, historically, VLCC rates and product tanker rates, especially the big product tankers have not surprisingly worked together in tandem.

當然。我們已經看到 VLCC 的盈利在過去兩、三年裡一直令人失望。分析師、VLCC 實際船東以及我們一直都對此抱有很大希望。直到最近，我們一直表示，我們預計一些規模較小的 MR 型油輪的表現也將優於 VLCC，事實也確實如此。然而，從歷史上看，超大型油輪運價與成品油輪運價，尤其是大型成品油輪的運價，並不意外地同步上漲。

And what we're seeing is the dynamics where the crude market can actually break out that the sanctions are there, that Iran isn't going to be producing the same amount as it did before. And for other reasons, you will get an expansion of the back again of the crude oil ton miles, and that won't be as an expense for the product market. So we're expecting VLCC rates to lift and get better.

我們看到的是原油市場的動態，制裁的存在會導致伊朗不再像以前那樣生產相同的原油數量。而由於其他原因，原油噸英里的回程將會擴大，而這不會成為產品市場的費用。因此，我們預計 VLCC 運價將會上升並進一步改善。

And then we say, so that's a good investment. And then we look at DHT and DHT is in our opinion, like a best-in-class. It's had a very predictable way of managing things. They perform very well commercially. And that we think is a good investment in that place, and that's what it is. It's an investment.

然後我們說，這是一項很好的投資。然後我們看看 DHT，我們認為 DHT 是同類產品中最好的。它有一種非常可預測的管理方式。它們的商業表現非常出色。我們認為這是對那個地方的一個很好的投資，事實也確實如此。這是一項投資。

All right. And forgot to say, I guess, upfront, Chris and team, great job on reducing debt. Obviously, we've watched this for years. So what a different position. Robert, I want to follow up on maybe Jon's question or actually maybe Omar's on kind of Russia. And I get you're not commenting on the news, but yesterday, we obviously saw Trump posted calls with Zelensky and Putin. So I just want to understand, if we step back, maybe can you give us a view on what does change if peace hits Russia, Europe, the Ukraine? Does that mean the 15%, 17% of vessels that are now in the MR world and 8% of LR2, do they come back to the market? Is it unknown what happens? Do half of them come back and half of them go to that? Like is there just a concept of what anything like this ever happened in the past or history that you can point to?

好的。我想，我忘了提前說一下，克里斯和他的團隊在減少債務方面做得很好。顯然，我們已經觀察這個現象好幾年了。那麼這是多麼不同的立場。羅伯特，我想跟進喬恩的問題，或是奧馬爾關於俄羅斯的問題。我知道你不想對新聞發表評論，但昨天，我們顯然看到川普發布了他與澤連斯基和普丁的通話記錄。所以我只是想要了解，如果我們退一步考慮，也許您能否給我們一個觀點，如果和平降臨俄羅斯、歐洲和烏克蘭，會發生什麼變化？這是否意味著，目前 MR 船市場中的 15%、17% 的船舶和 LR2 船市場中的 8% 的船舶會重返市場？不知道發生什麼事嗎？他們有一半人回來，另一半人去那裡嗎？例如，您能指出過去或歷史上是否發生過類似的事情嗎？

No, there's nothing you can point to, but it's highly doubtful that you get a return to -- it's a complete past. And in any form, that's not a -- it's a nice thought for short to get everybody whipped up to help positions or whatever. But it's not a realistic thing that we're going to wake up and next week, everything is going to be back into its place just on the actual demand part. There is -- for a whole host of reasons, there is a likelihood that even if there is a peace treaty that you can't really imagine that Europe goes straight back to where it was before and the dependence of Russia. I mean that's a little bit hard to imagine. And definitely, you're not going to have those -- that dark fleet serving. So, either way, you're going to have a much more muted response to any trade route change between those two factors.

不，你無法指出任何事，但你是否能回到過去也值得高度懷疑——這是一個完整的過去。無論如何，這不是一個——簡而言之，這是一個好主意，讓每個人都積極起來，幫助職位或其他什麼。但這不是現實，我們一覺醒來，下週一切就恢復到實際需求的程度。由於多種原因，即使達成和平條約，你也無法想像歐洲可能會回到以前的樣子並依賴俄羅斯。我的意思是這有點難想。可以肯定的是，你不會擁有那些 — — 那些黑暗艦隊。因此，無論如何，對於這兩個因素之間的任何貿易路線變化，您都會做出更溫和的反應。

But it really is a wait and see. It's a long way. I mean you can make the statement I want peace Ukraine. You can make the statement that you want to build holiday resort in Gaza, but there's a long chain of events between the actual statement and deliverability.

但這確實還需要拭目以待。路很漫長。我的意思是你可以說我希望烏克蘭和平。你可以聲稱想要在加薩建造度假村，但從實際聲明到交付需要經過一系列的事件。

Yes. If I can just get one quick follow-up, sorry, but did you push out the drydock question. Did you push out drydocks? Or did they go faster than expected at the end there? It seemed like there were -- there was the expectation for perhaps even more delay days than you had or off-hire days, sorry.

是的。如果我可以快速跟進一下，抱歉，但你是否推遲了乾船塢問題。您推開了乾船塢嗎？還是他們最後的速度比預想的快？似乎有——預計可能還會有比您預期的更多的延遲天數或停租天數，抱歉。

No, I think there was a -- please Cameron.

不，我認為有一個——請問卡梅倫。

If I mean that the timing of dry docks is driven by classification size essentially they're regulated, so you cannot extend, special surveys beyond a window.

如果我的意思是乾船塢的時間是由分類大小決定的，那麼從本質上講，它們受到監管，因此你不能將特殊調查延長到一個窗口期之外。

You can move them around within plus minus 30, maybe 60 days, but not be long beyond that.

您可以在正負 30 到 60 天內移動它們，但不要超過這個時間。

Okay. Thanks for the time guys.

好的。謝謝大家的時間。

Greg Lewis, BTIG.

格雷格·劉易斯（Greg Lewis），BTIG。

Hey thanks. Good morning and -- good afternoon everybody. I kind of had more of like a market question. Obviously, what's been going on in the Red Sea has been kind of an issue. And it's great for us to speculate, but I imagine that the Houthis and the drones are potentially there to stay longer.

嘿，謝謝。大家早安，下午好。我更想問一些類似市場的問題。顯然，紅海發生的事情已經成為一個問題。我們進行推測是很有道理的，但我認為胡塞武裝和無人機可能會在那裡停留更長時間。

What -- as you have conversations like with insurance companies that have to insure these cargoes, realizing that it's fluid, what's kind of the general view from some of these insurers? Are they like chomping at the bit to get back there and start insuring cargoes through here? Or is this something that I think to some of your guys' comments earlier, could have a long-lasting impact on that trade?

當您與必須為這些貨物投保的保險公司交談時，您意識到貨物具有流動性，這些保險公司的整體看法是什麼？他們是否迫不及待地想回到那裡並開始為通過這裡的貨物投保？或者我認為你們之前的一些評論可能會對這筆交易產生長期影響？

I can give that question a shot. The insurance market doesn't care. The market is the market. And it's been very efficient insofar as its responsiveness to different changes in the environment. So, the insurance market, like any market is agnostic. There are buyers and sellers at any price.

我可以嘗試回答這個問題。保險市場並不關心。市場就是市場。就其對環境的不同變化的響應能力而言，它非常有效率。因此，保險市場與任何市場一樣，都是不可知的。無論什麼價格，都有買家和賣家。

That being said, a cynical point of view is insurers have to handle claims. So, there is an idea that, yes, there's been less volume and they'd like to increase their volume or market share through competitive pricing. But in general, you can count on the insurance market is agnostic to risk.

話雖如此，但持憤世嫉俗觀點的人認為保險公司必須處理索賠。因此，有一種想法是，確實銷量減少了，他們想透過有競爭力的定價來增加銷售或市場份額。但整體而言，你可以相信保險市場對風險是不可知的。

Okay,

好的，

I think it's also important -- sorry, Greg, I was just going to add here, if I may. What the insurance companies also do, they obviously price their risk. And if you say what the price of risk is equivalent to risk to some extent and the price goes up or down, all I can say is that generally, the price has not come down. So that reflects that the risk is still reasonably high, irrespective of what your moral conundrum might be.

我認為這也很重要——抱歉，格雷格，如果可以的話，我只是想在這裡補充一下。保險公司也會這樣做，他們顯然會對風險進行定價。如果你說風險的價格在某種程度上等同於風險，而價格上漲或下跌，我只能說，一般來說，價格並沒有下降。所以，這反映出，不管你的道德難題是什麼，風險還是相當高。

Okay. Understood. And then as I think about -- you kind of alluded to -- and I was -- I guess one of the questions that people are having is, if I'm going to order an Aframax tanker, why not just coat it? It cost me an extra couple of million dollars. And we all see the LR2 order book. Is there any kind of way or have you guys done any work on -- and realizing that even a company like Scorpio can trade back and forth between product and crude over a period of time with their vessels. Is there any kind of way to parcel out how much of that LR2 market from newbuilds has been ordered historically by crude tanker operators versus product? Any kind of thoughts or views around that?

好的。明白了。然後當我想到 - 您有點提到 - 我 - 我想人們會問的一個問題是，如果我要訂購一艘阿芙拉型油輪，為什麼不給它塗上一層塗層呢？這讓我多花了幾百萬美元。我們都看到了LR2訂單簿。有沒有辦法或你們做過什麼工作——並且意識到即使像 Scorpio 這樣的公司也可以在一段時間內使用他們的船隻在產品和原油之間來回交易。是否有某種方式可以劃分出歷史上原油油輪運營商和成品油輪運營商訂購的 LR2 新建船舶市場份額？對此您有什麼想法或看法嗎？

That would be a difficult one, Greg. No, we don't really have an idea. I think the best thing to look at is just recently over the last 7, 8 years, 70%, maybe 80% of LR2 Aframax orders have been LR2s. So, higher cost of the coating is not really that big of an issue in terms of the optionality that it gives you. And I think today, 40% of the LR2 Aframax fleet is LR2s, yet the market for crude in the aftermarket is four times the size. It's 14 million barrels a day versus 3.5 million of product. So, it's impossible to not have some of these vessels servicing that crude oil trade.

這會是一個困難的問題，格雷格。不，我們確實不知道。我認為最值得關注的是，在過去的 7、8 年裡，70% 甚至 80% 的 LR2 阿芙拉型油輪訂單都是 LR2。因此，從塗層提供的可選性來看，塗層成本較高並不是什麼大問題。我認為，今天 LR2 阿芙拉型油輪船隊中有 40% 是 LR2，但售後市場的原油市場規模是這個數字的四倍。每天的產量為 1400 萬桶，而產品產量為 350 萬桶。因此，不可能沒有這些船隻為原油貿易提供服務。

Okay. Great. Thanks guys.

好的。偉大的。謝謝大家。

Ben Nolan, Stifel.

本·諾蘭（Ben Nolan），斯蒂費爾（Stifel）。

Yes, appreciate it. So actually, I've got a couple of things. Maybe following on both of Greg's questions. So first of all, on the crude versus product, I know in the past, there has been -- well, actually, in the recent past, VLCCs and Suezmaxes have traded product. Any update on that? And then as you think about the Red Sea, is there -- I know some other classes of ships are starting to dip their toe into going through there. I don't think that you guys are yet, but any thoughts on sort of how you're approaching that?

是的，非常感謝。實際上，我有幾件事。或許可以回答 Greg 提出的兩個問題。首先，關於原油與成品油，我知道，過去，實際上，最近，超大型油輪 (VLCC) 和蘇伊士型油輪 (Suezmax) 已經進行了成品油交易。有什麼最新消息嗎？然後當你想到紅海時，我知道其他一些級別的船隻也開始嘗試穿越那裡。我認為你們還沒有做到這一點，但是對於如何解決這個問題，你們有什麼想法嗎？

Ben, I can take the second part of your question first is you've probably seen yourself that a lot of eyes on the Red Sea are waiting to see how Phase 2 of the ceasefire evolves. We don't have a window into the negotiation, but I think any casual observer of the headlines would say it's highly, highly fraught. So again, we're not as big as some of the global container players, but I think the industry as a whole, the Western industry is taking a very, very cautious approach about resuming transit to the Southern Red Sea.

本，我可以先回答你問題的第二部分，你可能已經親眼看到，紅海上許多人的眼睛都在等著看停火第二階段的進展。我們沒有機會了解談判情況，但我認為任何一個看過新聞頭條的人都會發現，談判非常非常緊張。所以，我們雖然不如一些全球貨櫃運輸公司那麼大，但我認為，作為一個整體，西方貨櫃運輸業對於恢復南紅海的運輸都採取了非常謹慎的態度。

So when the LR2 market was extremely strong in the beginning and throughout the second quarter, the differential between kind of LR2 from the Middle East going west to a VLCC for a similar type of voyage was so substantial that probably the spread between using one to the other ship and putting on three LR2s and one cargo probably had a margin of $20 million. So the incentive to clean up and take the cargo risk of moving distillate on a VLCC was pretty apparent.

因此，當 LR2 市場在年初以及整個第二季度非常強勁時，從中東向西航行的 LR2 與一艘 VLCC 進行類似航行之間的差價非常大，以至於使用一艘 LR2 油輪與另一艘船裝載三艘 LR2 油輪和一批貨物之間的差價可能有 2000 萬美元的利潤。因此，清理和承擔在超大型油輪上運輸餾分油的貨物風險的動機是顯而易見的。

Now as the VLCC market has moved up, Suezmaxes as well to a larger extent and also the LR2 market has kind of drifted down, that margin is no longer there. So in terms of the clean dirty kind of cannibalization that we have talked about in the past, there are certainly data to suggest that is not happening at point is right now. There is the casual change between Aframax to LR2 from different pockets and different areas where you could load condensates, but that's at the margin. And then the second part, which is also interesting is what happens then with the newbuildings that are coming out of the shipyards at the beginning of the year, which tends to be the case, where we, in the past, have seen a lot of newbuildings moving into with virgin tanks into cargoes, moving out of the North Asian markets west or out of the Middle East going West, and that has also kind of come at a discount relative to the LR2 market in general.

現在，隨著 VLCC 市場上漲，蘇伊士型油輪市場也大幅上漲，而 LR2 市場則有所下滑，這一利潤空間已不復存在。因此，就我們過去談到的乾淨、骯髒的蠶食而言，肯定有數據表明，目前這種情況還沒有發生。在可以裝載凝析油的不同地點和不同區域，阿芙拉型油輪與 LR2 之間存在隨意變化，但這只是邊緣變化。然後第二部分，也是很有趣的，那就是隨著年初從船廠出廠的新船的情況，通常情況如此，我們過去看到很多新船帶著原始油箱駛入，從北亞市場向西移動，或者從中東向西移動，而且相對於整個 LR2 市場來說，這也有一定的折扣。

Point one here is that for all of 2025, there's only four VLCCs being delivered. So that really is not at the market. And then you've got the Suezmax market. The Suezmax market is potentially kind of a contender on this cannibalization. But to be honest, this is something that we contend with every single year, and it's not something that changes anything in terms of our outlook. I think the thing that's interesting is that there's only four newbuilding VLCCs and what that actually kind of means in terms of supply-demand balances going forward.

第一點是，到 2025 年全年，只會交付 4 艘 VLCC。所以這確實不在市場上。然後你就有了蘇伊士型油輪市場。蘇伊士型油輪市場可能是這種蠶食現象的潛在競爭者。但老實說，這是我們每年都要面對的問題，而且它不會改變我們的觀點。我認為有趣的是，目前只有四艘新建的 VLCC，這對於未來的供需平衡意味著什麼。

Got it. I appreciate it, Lars. And then my -- let's call it, second question. Well, first of all, let me say, Robert, I think in your prepared remarks, that was absolutely the most scripted that I think I've ever heard you be in any environment. But -- and very helpful, by the way. The -- my second question though relates -- and maybe this is again for Lars. But the handysize rates that you guys are getting tend to be below what we would see in broker reports. And I suspect that's because historically, especially for the ice-class vessels, they tend to do a lot of Russian trade. And so if you blend that in, something that you guys aren't doing, then it creates a little bit of a differential. But can you maybe just talk to how you think about sort of -- and again, appreciating that you don't really know what's going to go on with Russia, but is that the category that might benefit the most if there was a normalization?

知道了。我很感激，拉爾斯。然後是我的—我們稱之為第二個問題。嗯，首先，讓我說，羅伯特，我認為你準備好的發言絕對是我在任何環境下聽到的最具腳本性的發言。但是 — — 順便說一句，這非常有幫助。不過，我的第二個問題與之相關——也許這又是關於拉爾斯的問題。但你們獲得的靈便型船舶價格往往低於我們在經紀人報告中看到的水平。我懷疑這是因為從歷史上看，特別是冰級船隻，它們往往進行大量的俄羅斯貿易。所以如果你把它融入到你們沒有做的事情中，那麼它就會產生一點差異。但您能否談談您對此的看法——再次重申，我承認您並不真正了解俄羅斯的情況，但是，如果關係正常化，俄羅斯是不是最有可能受益的國家？

I think it's important to say that still controls 14 handysize vessels. All 14 of those vessels were dry docked in 2024. And there's no doubt that, that has an impact on the tradability and the kind of the earning potential for the ships with all the dry dock time that's taken out plus the positioning that was mentioned by Cam earlier on, et cetera, et cetera. So as we're moving into the second week of February, all 14 ships have now been completed.

我認為，重要的是，該公司仍然控制著 14 艘靈便型船舶。所有 14 艘船隻均於 2024 年進入乾船塢。毫無疑問，這會對貿易和船舶的盈利潛力產生影響，因為所有乾船塢時間都被佔用，再加上 Cam 之前提到的定位等等。進入二月的第二週，所有 14 艘船都已完工。

So in terms of where you think the market was and so on, then I would counter to say that considering the size of dry docks that had to be done for all of these ships, it's pretty good going.

因此，就您認為的市場情況等等而言，我想反駁說，考慮到必須為所有這些船舶建造的乾船塢的規模，情況已經相當不錯了。

To the second part of your question, it's quite clear that in terms of ICE than in the past, and this is before the Ukraine, we did a lot of business out of the Baltic in Russian ports, Finnish ports as well. So today, we are kind of constrained with only loading maybe stuff out of Finland, et cetera. So it's more of a non-ICE market for sure. So there's obviously less earnings potential. But at the same time, I will also say that there are a lot of ships in the handy market that have ICE classification. I think the interesting -- more interesting point on the handy market is if you look at the average age on the fleet is a very aging fleet with very few ships being kind of introduced to the fleet for this segment.

對於你問題的第二部分，很明顯，就 ICE 而言，與過去相比，這是在烏克蘭之前，我們在波羅的海的俄羅斯港口、芬蘭港口也做了很多生意。所以今天，我們受到一定的限制，只能裝載來自芬蘭等地的貨物。所以它肯定更像是一個非ICE市場。因此獲利潛力顯然較小。但同時，我還要說的是，靈便型船舶市場上有許多具有 ICE 分類的船舶。我認為，在靈便型船舶市場上更有趣的一點是，如果你看看船隊的平均年齡，你會發現船隊非常老化，只有極少數的船隻被引入到這一細分市場的船隊中。

All right. I Appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。我非常感激。謝謝。

I also think that – a few degrees, that's sort of exactly the sort of place that has the highest restrictions for many reasons related to age and operation. So those charterers like the Shells, the BPs, the Total, that's what we're talking about. And that's the difficulty about this assumption of return to the past because these operators that you're talking about that where the markets are going at the moment are so -- they have very, very little hurdles for people to get in, whereas the traditional past European receivers have the highest hurdles there are in the world to get into trade.

我還認為，由於與年齡和操作相關的許多原因，這正是限制最高的地方。我們正在談論的是殼牌、英國石油、道達爾等租船公司。這就是回到過去的假設的困難之處，因為你談論的這些運營商，在目前的市場走向下，對人們進入的障礙非常小，而傳統的歐洲接收者進入貿易的障礙是世界上最高的。

All right. I Appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。我非常感激。謝謝。

Chris Robertson, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的克里斯·羅伯遜。

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I know we're getting towards the end of the call, so I'll just ask one and try to make it quick here. Just looking at the European market for a minute, not with regards to the sanctions of the vessels trading Russian volumes, but just curious on how the fuel EU and EU ETS and emissions regulations are having any observable impact on the product trade at the moment? And I guess, given this regulatory dynamic, though, what percentage of the dark fleet or gray fleet would even qualify to trade into Europe, regardless of the greater geopolitical issues?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我知道我們通話快要結束了，所以我只問一個問題並儘量快點回答。只看歐洲市場，不考慮對俄羅斯貿易船隻的製裁，只是好奇歐盟燃料和歐盟排放交易體係以及排放法規目前對產品貿易有何可觀察的影響？我想，考慮到這種監管動態，無論存在怎樣的地緣政治問題，有多少比例的黑色船隊或灰色船隊有資格在歐洲進行貿易？

Lars, do you have any idea?

拉爾斯，你有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, I can take a shot at it, if you like, which is number one is the -- I think what you were asking about in the second part of your question was to what extent do we anticipate should sanctions ease the dark fleet somehow come and start to compete in the Western market. And I'd harken back to comments we've made on previous calls, which is regulations are certainly a bar that we have to pass, and we're happy to pass -- clear that bar. But really, in our industry, customer expectations are far and away the most stringent hurdle we have to clear.

是的，如果你願意的話，我可以嘗試一下，首先，我認為你在問題的第二部分所問的是，如果制裁放鬆，我們在多大程度上可以預期黑暗艦隊會以某種方式開始在西方市場上競爭。我回想起我們在之前的電話會議上所發表的評論，那就是法規當然是我們必須跨越的一道門檻，我們很高興能夠跨越——清除這一門檻。但實際上，在我們的行業中，客戶期望是我們必須克服的最嚴格的障礙。

And when you really look in detail at some of the ships in the dark fleet, they are operating beyond the realm of any Western standards, whether that is insurance, classification society, general maintenance and repair, seafarer compensation and welfare. So you're looking at assets that have a very, very long distance to go and a lot of CapEx required for them to ever be even considered to trade in the West, again, not because of regulations, but because of customers and their demands and their risk tolerances. So we're skeptical that you'll see many of those vessels come back, and that's before you get to the age and the relative merits of the type of investment you're talking about. Sorry, and then your first question, can you repeat it?

當你仔細觀察黑暗艦隊中的某些船舶時，你會發現它們的運作超出了任何西方標準的範圍，無論是保險、船級社、一般維護和修理、海員補償和福利。因此，你所看到的資產有非常非常長的路要走，並且需要大量的資本支出，才有可能被考慮在西方進行交易，這再次不是因為法規，而是因為客戶及其需求和風險承受能力。所以我們懷疑這些船隻是否能夠回歸，那是在你了解你所談論的投資類型的年齡和相對價值之前。抱歉，那麼您的第一個問題，您能重複嗎？

Just what the observable impact today is on the product trade with the existing regulations and kind of the step-up into 2025?

在現有法規和 2025 年升級的背景下，今天對產品貿易產生什麼可觀察到的影響？

Lars is may be better placed to answer that. But what I will say is, of course, it's been a big adjustment for the market in general. And what you're seeing, not just in EU ETS or fuel EU is added degrees of complexity around competition. So this, along with other things that have happened in the regulatory environment over the last several years, just makes it harder and harder for smaller ship owners to compete. So I would, above anything, say, look, the market is adjusting, but it is -- it does have a consolidating impact. And so you'd expect that the bigger owners and operators get bigger and the smallers are really struggling to -- with the scale and the cost and the complexity of these regulations.

拉爾斯也許更適合回答這個問題。但我要說的是，當然，對於整個市場來說，這是一個很大的調整。您所看到的不僅是歐盟排放交易體系或歐盟燃料體系，競爭的複雜程度也隨之增加。因此，這種情況以及過去幾年監管環境中發生的其他事情使得小型船東的競爭越來越困難。因此，我首先要說的是，看，市場正在調整，但它確實具有整合效應。因此，你可以預料到，較大的業主和營運商會變得更大，而較小的業主和營運商則在規模、成本和法規的複雜性方面苦苦掙扎。

Got it. That's really helpful.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。

I'll give you a number here, Chris, which is quite interesting. If you have an LR2 and you're going to trade it from the Middle East and you're going to trade it to Europe, including the UK, the difference between the EU and non-EU port in terms of what you're going to have to pay from an EU ETS perspective is $150,000.

我在這裡給你一個數字，克里斯，這很有趣。如果您擁有一艘 LR2 型油輪，您要從中東將它交易到歐洲（包括英國），那麼從歐盟 ETS 角度來看，您在歐盟港口和非歐盟港口需要支付的費用差額為 150,000 美元。

Got it. Okay. Appreciate that. All right. I'll turn it over.

知道了。好的。非常感謝。好的。我把它翻過來。

Frode Morkedal, Clarksons Securities.

Frode Morkedal，克拉克森證券。

Thank you. Hi, guys. Just a quick question on the order book, we discussed it, but it's an important topic. So the slide on page 16 is great. At least when I talk to a lot of investors, they seem to assume that all these LR2s had all into the clean market, right? But you -- I think you laid out a compelling case that there is going to be, let's call it, switching, right? So my understanding is there's -- the crude Aframax order book is just 5.9%, right? So clearly, there's been very few orders in that segment and maybe by owners that should have ordered the crude Aframax but opted from LR2s, right? So the question is really, how do you think this plays out? This transition, right? Is this -- are these LR2 newbuilds directly going into crude? Or do you think there will be some type of crowding out of older ships that then switch into crude?

謝謝。嗨，大家好。關於訂單簿的一個簡單問題，我們討論過它，但這是一個重要的主題。第 16 頁的幻燈片很棒。至少當我與許多投資者交談時，他們似乎認為所有這些 LR2 都已進入清潔市場，對嗎？但是你—我認為你提出了一個令人信服的案例，我們稱之為轉換，對嗎？所以我的理解是——阿芙拉型原油訂單量只有 5.9%，對嗎？所以很明顯，該領域的訂單很少，也許是那些應該訂購原油阿芙拉型油船但選擇 LR2 的船東下的訂單，對嗎？所以真正的問題是，您認為這將如何發展？這個轉變對吧？這些 LR2 新建船舶是否直接用於原油運輸？還是您認為將會出現某種形式的老舊船舶被擠出市場，轉而運輸原油的情況？

So Lars, do you want to start?

那麼 Lars，你想開始嗎？

Yes, I'll just start with kind of some interesting kind of data on this. So the time charter market that we have seen obviously quite busy parts of the year last year, and there's been a bit of a resurgence kind of as we move into February. And there is no real difference in terms of the charter when he's looking for an Aframax, if he wants to have an Aframax on LR2. And from an owner's perspective, they are not concerned about taking the LR2s and fixing it as an Aframax.

是的，我將從一些有趣的數據開始。因此，我們看到定期租船市場在去年的部分時間顯然相當繁忙，而進入二月則出現了一些復甦的跡象。如果他想在 LR2 上擁有一艘阿芙拉型油輪，那麼當他尋找一艘阿芙拉型油輪時，在租船方面沒有什麼區別。從船東的角度來看，他們並不在乎將 LR2 改裝成阿芙拉型油輪。

The fungibility between those 2 markets is very clear. And it's clear in the spot market when there is spread differentials over $750,000 that they will start moving from one to the other. This is great for both markets. It creates the fluidity that you want. The volatility is then impacted on both. So it is very important that if you want to look at LR2, Aframax, you have to look at those in unison. So when you look purely as LR2s and you say, well, the LR2 book is huge, whatever the percentage is, 20 or whatever it is, I think you're making a great mistake if you do not look at this in conjunction with Aframax in particular with the kind of the aging fleet of Aframax to look at these together.

這兩個市場之間的可互換性非常明顯。很明顯，當現貨市場的價差超過 75 萬美元時，他們就會開始從一個貨幣轉移到另一個貨幣。這對兩個市場來說都是好事。它創造了您想要的流動性。波動性會對兩者產生影響。因此，如果您想了解 LR2 和 Aframax，那麼您必須將它們結合起來看，這一點非常重要。因此，當您純粹將 LR2 視為油輪並說 LR2 庫存量巨大時，無論百分比是多少，是 20 還是其他什麼，如果您不將其與阿芙拉型油輪結合起來看，特別是將阿芙拉型油輪老化船隊結合起來看，我認為您就犯了一個很大的錯誤。

Yeah. And I would just add, Morris, is making a great point. So even today, there's, I think, 23% of the Aframax fleet older than 20 years. And the Aframax fleet is a lot larger than the LR2 fleet, especially as you look at that older tonnage. So I think what you'll see is maybe some of the newbuilds trade in the clean market and then have some of the older vessels move into the dirty market. But Lars is absolutely right. You have to look at them together as you have as well, Froda. And when you do, it certainly tells the story that there's definitely demand for both assets in a way where the supply growth looks substantially less than the 20%, it may appear.

是的。我想補充一點，莫里斯的觀點非常好。因此，我認為，即使到今天，阿芙拉型油輪船隊中仍有 23% 的船齡超過 20 年。阿芙拉型油輪船隊比 LR2 型油輪船隊規模大得多，尤其是從噸位來看。因此，我認為你會看到，也許一些新建船舶在清潔市場進行交易，而一些舊船舶進入污染市場。但拉斯是完全正確的。你必須把它們放在一起看待，就像你之前所做的那樣，Froda。當你這樣做時，它確實表明了對這兩種資產肯定存在需求，而供應成長可能看起來遠低於 20%。

Yes, indeed. Thank you. That's a great update. My final question is on the Red Sea potential reopening. I guess, do you think this might be having a positive impact on this East to West arbitrage flows, which I think appears to have diminished somewhat in the past few months. So maybe that could be a positive thing.

是的，確實如此。謝謝。這是一個很棒的更新。我的最後一個問題是關於紅海可能重新開放的問題。您認為這可能會對東西方套利流動產生正面影響嗎？所以這也許是件好事。

I'll start with just making a few points here. Number one is that if you look over the last few months, you have been through a huge turnaround in the refineries in the Middle East. That's been completed. And then suddenly, you had a more or less shut diesel a over kind of December and the first part of January. So there was no real incentive to move -- moving cargoes west. That suddenly has flipped where suddenly the diesel a has opened again. And then on top of that, if you then add on the Jan refinery that is completing turnaround by end of February, I would say that you've got a lot of outlets in terms of cargo being produced, both in Red Sea and also in the AG where cargoes will start flowing and supply distillate to Europe.

我首先想談幾點。第一，如果回顧過去幾個月，你會發現中東煉油廠經歷了巨大的轉變。那已經完成了。然後突然間，在 12 月和 1 月初，柴油引擎或多或少都關閉了。因此，沒有真正的動力將貨物運往西邊。情況突然發生了翻轉，柴油引擎突然又啟動了。除此之外，如果再加上將於 2 月底完成改造的 Jan 煉油廠，我會說，在貨物生產方面，你們有很多出口，無論是在紅海還是在 AG，貨物都將開始流動並向歐洲供應餾分油。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Liam Burke, B Riley.

利亞姆伯克、B 萊利。

Yes. Thank you. Robert, in light of your cash flow and strong liquidity position, I guess your most recent sale of a vessel was a relatively new LR2. Are you still looking at opportunistic divestitures? Or are you pretty much happy with the size and the positioning of the fleet?

是的。謝謝。羅伯特，鑑於您的現金流和強大的流動性狀況，我猜您最近出售的一艘船是一艘相對較新的 LR2。您是否仍在尋求機會性資產剝離？或者您對艦隊的規模和定位非常滿意嗎？

Both. I mean, we're very happy with the size and the positioning of the fleet. And I think for anyone on this call's entire careers, they've been willing to opportunistically sell vessels if they think they're getting good value.

兩個都。我的意思是，我們對船隊的規模和定位非常滿意。我認為，對於參加這次電話會議的任何人來說，在整個職業生涯中，如果他們認為自己獲得了良好的價值，他們都願意趁機出售船隻。

Okay. Thank you. James, you've talked about refinery realignments globally and the shutting of older, less efficient ones. This has been a multiyear event. How do you see this thing continuing to play out until it reaches sort of a normal steady state of heavily weighting refinery capacity in China and in the Middle East?

好的。謝謝。詹姆斯，您談到了全球煉油廠的重新調整以及關閉老舊、效率低下的煉油廠。這是一個多年期的活動。您認為這種情況將如何持續發展，直到達到嚴重依賴中國和中東煉油產能的正常穩定狀態？

Look, I think it's going to continue. So look, the best part about the refining story is the lack of new capacity coming online in emerging markets. So everybody has focused a lot on Dangote, but that was starting construction or supposed to in 2013, and it's 2025, and it's still not at full capacity. So I think that in terms of the longer medium-term product trade is really powerful.

看，我認為這會繼續下去。所以，煉油故事中最精彩的部分是新興市場缺乏新的產能。因此，每個人都將注意力集中在丹格特身上，但該項目應該在 2013 年開始建設，現在已經是 2025 年了，但它仍未滿載。因此我認為，從中長期來看，產品貿易確實非常強勁。

Then the other side of it is this older refining capacity that probably should have shut before COVID and then you have the strong crack environment as world demand came back and you're starting to see those closures again. So during our last earnings call, I think we said that we expected 1 million barrels of capacity to close this year. Now it's 2 million. And so going forward, I think there's still more capacity in the US. There's more in Europe. There's certainly more in China that can be closed. And you're going to have to make up that lost production. And most of the time, it's going to be carried on a ship. So I think it's very constructive going forward. We haven't had any necessarily new announcements since kind of the California refineries and Phillips 66 in December, but something we monitor closely and something we think is going to be impactful for our industry going forward.

另一方面，這些較老的煉油能力可能應該在疫情之前關閉，而隨著世界需求的回升，裂解天然氣環境強勁，你又開始看到這些煉油能力的關閉。因此，在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們說過預計今年將關閉 100 萬桶的產能。現在是200萬。因此展望未來，我認為美國仍有更多的產能。歐洲還有更多。中國肯定還有更多可以關閉的地方。你必須彌補這些生產損失。大多數情況下，它會透過船隻運載。所以我認為這對未來發展非常有建設性。自 12 月加州煉油廠和菲利普斯 66 號煉油廠事件以來，我們還沒有發布任何新的公告，但我們會密切關註一些事件，我們認為這些事件將對我們行業的未來產生影響。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。