Scorpio Tankers Inc (STNG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Inc. First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers Inc. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and IR. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給企業發展和投資者關係主管詹姆斯·多伊爾 (James Doyle)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Emanuele Lauro, Chief Executive Officer; Robert Bugbee, President; Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating Officer; Chris Avella, Chief Financial Officer; Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer.

感謝您今天加入我們。歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是執行長 Emanuele Lauro；羅伯特‧巴格比，總裁；卡梅倫‧麥基，營運長；克里斯‧阿維拉，財務長；拉爾斯·登克爾·尼爾森，首席商務官。

Earlier today, we issued our first quarter earnings press release which is available on our website, scorpiotankers.com.

今天早些時候，我們發布了第一季收益新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 scorpiotankers.com 上取得。

The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, May 9, 2024, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release as well as Scorpio Tankers' SEC filings which are available at scorpiotankers.com and sec.gov.

本次電話會議討論的資訊是基於截至今天（2024 年 5 月 9 日）的信息，可能包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類聲明中提出的結果有重大差異。要討論這些風險和不確定性，您應該查看收益新聞稿中披露的前瞻性聲明以及 Scorpio Tankers 向 SEC 提交的文件（可在 scorpiotankers.com 和 sec.gov 上取得）。

Call participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the internet and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website for approximately 14 days.

請通話參與者註意，本次電話會議的音訊正在網路上現場直播，並且也被錄製以供回放。網路廣播的存檔將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供約 14 天。

We will be giving a short presentation today. The presentation is available at scorpiotankers.com on the Investor Relations page under Reports and Presentation. These slides will also be available on the webcast. After the presentation, we will go to Q&A. For those asking questions, please limit the number of questions to 2. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue.

今天我們將做一個簡短的演講。該簡報可在 scorpiotankers.com 投資者關係頁面的「報告和簡報」下查看。這些幻燈片也將在網路廣播中提供。演講結束後，我們將進入問答環節。對於提問者，請將問題數量限制為 2 個。如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入佇列。

Now I'd like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, Emanuele Lauro.

現在我想介紹一下我們的執行長 Emanuele Lauro。

Thank you, James and good morning to everyone and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to announce another strong quarter of financial results. In the first quarter, the company generated $293 million in adjusted EBITDA and $207 million in adjusted net income. The market dynamics that have been driving the favorable rate environment continue. Global demand for refined products is robust. Refining capacity remains dislocated and the maritime supply chain is still constrained.

謝謝詹姆斯，大家早安，謝謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興地宣布又一個強勁的季度財務業績。第一季度，該公司調整後 EBITDA 為 2.93 億美元，調整後淨利為 2.07 億美元。推動有利利率環境的市場動態仍在持續。全球對成品油的需求強勁。煉油能力仍錯位，海運供應鏈仍受到限制。

In addition, geopolitical disruptions have tightened the supply curve further and the resulting cash flows from a heightened rate environment have been significant as well as transformational for Scorpio Tankers over the past few quarters. In Q1, we continue to focus on reducing our leverage. We made $262 million in unscheduled repayments on our debt and are set to repay an additional $118 million during the second quarter. As previously mentioned, the balance sheet and quality of Scorpio as an investment improves each day.

此外，地緣政治的干擾進一步收緊了供應曲線，而高利率環境帶來的現金流量非常大，並且在過去幾個季度對 Scorpio Tankers 帶來了變革。第一季度，我們繼續專注於降低槓桿率。我們計劃外償還了 2.62 億美元的債務，並計劃在第二季額外償還 1.18 億美元。如前所述，天蠍座的資產負債表和投資品質每天都在改善。

Today, our net debt stands at $811 million, which represents the lower end of our target debt level. We anticipate significant reduction in our cash breakeven starting in the third quarter of this year. In fact, we are working with our lenders to prepay existing debt, which would decrease our daily fleet operating breakeven to $12,500 per day, a figure near the lowest TCE rates and during the COVID period and in the company's history. This breakeven once achieved would be amongst the lowest in the industry despite Scorpio Tankers actually still owning the most modern product tanker fleet out there.

目前，我們的淨債務為 8.11 億美元，這是我們目標債務水準的下限。我們預計從今年第三季開始，我們的現金收支平衡將大幅減少。事實上，我們正​​在與貸方合作預付現有債務，這將使我們的每日機隊營運盈虧平衡點降至每天 12,500 美元，這一數字接近新冠疫情期間和公司歷史上的最低 TCE 利率。儘管天蠍油輪實際上仍然擁有最現代化的成品油輪船隊，但一旦實現盈虧平衡，將是業內最低的。

With net debt near scrap value, our modern fleet, low anticipated cash breakevens, we have positioned ourselves to act opportunistically to increase shareholder returns and further reduce debt. If things were to remain the same, given the share price discount to NAV, we would be buying back -- we would favor buybacks as we see them more accretive to shareholders than further increases in regular dividends.

由於淨債務接近廢值、我們的現代化機隊、預期的現金收支平衡較低，我們已將自己定位為機會主義行動，以增加股東回報並進一步減少債務。如果情況保持不變，考慮到股價相對資產淨值的折扣，我們將回購股票——我們會贊成回購，因為我們認為回購比進一步增加定期股息對股東更有利。

As we look forward, we remain optimistic with low global inventories, robust demand and limited growth who are all supporting factors for the continued strength in the product tanker rates. We remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders and appreciate your continued support and confidence in Scorpio Tankers.

展望未來，我們對全球庫存較低、需求強勁和成長有限保持樂觀，這些都是成品油輪運價持續走強的支撐因素。我們仍然致力於為股東創造價值，感謝您對 Scorpio Tankers 的持續支持和信任。

I would like now to turn the call to James for a brief presentation. James?

我現在想請詹姆斯做一個簡短的介紹。詹姆士？

Thank you, Emanuele. Slide 7, please. Never have there been so many factors driving our business. Individually, these factors are positive. Collectively, they're unprecedented. Increasing global demand, low inventories and shifts in refining capacity have increased seaborne exports and ton-miles.

謝謝你，埃馬努埃萊。請幻燈片 7。從來沒有如此多的因素推動我們的業務發展。就個體而言，這些因素都是正面的。總的來說，它們是前所未有的。全球需求的增加、庫存的減少以及煉油能力的轉變增加了海運出口和噸英里數。

At the same time, the fleet has become bifurcated and supply growth has been limited. The result, product tanker rates have remained at high levels for the last 2 years. Today, spot rates for MRs are almost $40,000 per day and $50,000 for LR2s. While LR2s have captured headlines because of their higher volatility and impact from disruptions in the Red Sea, MR rates have shown remarkable consistency and serve as a clear indicator of the robust underlying global demand for refined products. This continues today.

同時，船隊已經分成兩部分，供應成長受到限制。結果，成品油輪運價在過去兩年中一直保持在高水準。如今，MR 的現貨價格幾乎為每天 40,000 美元，LR2 的現貨價格為 50,000 美元。雖然 LR2 因其較高的波動性和紅海中斷的影響而成為頭條新聞，但 MR 率卻表現出顯著的一致性，並成為全球對成品油強勁的潛在需求的明確指標。這種情況一直持續到今天。

Slide 8, please. Refined product demand has been extremely strong. We expect an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day through year end, driven by increases in diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and naphtha. And yes, as global demand has increased, so have seaborne exports.

請幻燈片 8。成品油需求極為強勁。我們預計，在柴油、汽油、噴射燃料和石腦油增加的推動下，到年底產量將增加 150 萬桶/日。是的，隨著全球需求的增加，海運出口也增加。

Slide 9, please. The increase in demand has led to record levels of seaborne exports. In March, exports reached 21.1 million barrels a day, an increase of 1.1 million compared to 2019 levels and 500,000 barrels a day year-over-year. The increase has been primarily fueled by heightened demand for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Moreover, not only have exports grown, but the distance these barrels are traveling has also significantly increased.

請幻燈片 9。需求的增加導致海運出口達到創紀錄的水平。3月份，出口量達2,110萬桶/日，較2019年增加110萬桶/日，較去年增加50萬桶/日。這一增長主要是由於柴油、汽油和噴氣燃料的需求增加所致。此外，不僅出口成長，而且這些桶的運輸距離也顯著增加。

Slide 10, please. As refineries have moved further away from the consumer, the distance the cargo needs to travel has increased. Refinery closures in Europe, U.S. and Australasia have decreased local output, increasing the need for imports. Conversely, new refining capacity in places like the Middle East has boosted production, leading to an increase in exports. The structural changes in capacity has and continues to reshape flows. As ton-mile demand increases, vessel capacity is reduced and supply tightened.

請投影片 10。隨著煉油廠距離消費者越來越遠，貨物需要運輸的距離也隨之增加。歐洲、美國和澳洲煉油廠的關閉導致當地產量減少，增加了進口需求。相反，中東等地的新煉油能力提高了產量，導致出口增加。產能的結構性變化已經並將繼續重塑流量。隨著噸英里需求的增加，船舶運力減少，供應緊張。

Slide 11, please. In demand for ton-mile has notably increased. Excluding Russia, ton-mile demand has increased by 21% since 2019. If you include Russia, ton-mile demand increases an additional 6%. This suggests that it's not only geopolitical events driving ton-miles, but changes in refining capacity and increasing export.

請投影片 11。對噸英里的需求顯著增加。不包括俄羅斯，噸英里需求自 2019 年以來增加了 21%。如果包括俄羅斯，噸英里需求將額外增加 6%。這表明，推動噸英里增長的不僅是地緣政治事件，還有煉油能力的變化和出口的增加。

That said, geopolitical events have required the rerouting of vessels, leading to a less efficient fleet that must cover longer distances. For instance, attacks in the Red Sea have reduced product tanker volumes through the Suez Canal by 75% and increased volumes around the Cape of Good Hope by 400%. These disruptions have exacerbated the strong supply and demand fundamentals in our markets.

也就是說，地緣政治事件需要船隻改變航線，導致船隊效率較低，必須行駛更長的距離。例如，紅海襲擊導致通過蘇伊士運河的成品油輪運量減少了 75%，而好望角周圍的運量則增加了 400%。這些幹擾加劇了我們市場強勁的供需基本面。

Slide 12, please. Strong spot and time charter rates coupled with an aging fleet has led to an increase in newbuilding orders. Currently, the order book set to deliver over the next 3 years represents 14.8% of the existing fleet. Meanwhile, the fleet continues to age with the average age of the product tanker fleet now at 13 years. So what will the fleet look like in 2026, including newbuild? Well, by then, 50% of the fleet will be older than 15 years and 21% will exceed 20 years and older positioning them as potential candidates for scrapping. Thus, using conservative scrapping assumptions, fleet growth looks modest over the next 3 years.

請投影片 12。強勁的現貨和定期租船費率加上老化的船隊導致新船訂單增加。目前，未來 3 年內交付的訂單量佔現有機隊的 14.8%。同時，船隊繼續老化，成品油輪船隊的平均船齡目前為 13 年。那麼 2026 年船隊（包括新建船隊）會是什麼樣子呢？到那時，50% 的機隊將超過 15 年，21% 將超過 20 年及以上，這使得它們成為潛在的報廢候選人。因此，使用保守的報廢假設，未來三年機隊成長看起來溫和。

Slide 13, please. This year's fleet growth is expected to be about 1.4% and with seaborne exports and ton-miles expected to increase 2.6% and 2.7% this year, it's vastly outpacing supply. Looking forward, we are very constructive on the supply-demand balance. The confluence of factors in today's market are constructed individually, historically low inventories, increasing demand, exports and ton-miles, structural dislocations in the refinery system, rerouting of global product flows and limited fleet growth. Collectively, they are unprecedented.

請幻燈片 13。今年的船隊成長預計約為 1.4%，海運出口和噸英里預計今年將成長 2.6% 和 2.7%，遠超過供應量。展望未來，我們對供需平衡非常有建設性。當今市場中的各種因素是單獨構成的，庫存處於歷史低位，需求、出口和噸英里不斷增加，煉油系統的結構性混亂，全球產品流的重新安排以及船隊增長有限。總的來說，它們是前所未有的。

With that, I would like to turn it over to Chris.

有了這個，我想把它交給克里斯。

Thank you, James. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Slide 15, please. The first quarter of 2024 combined another strong seasonal quarter with the dramatic expansion of ton-mile demand that was triggered by the conditions in the Red Sea. Over the past 5 quarters, we have generated $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $777 million in adjusted net income. These results have enabled us to reduce our debt by $557 million, pay $79 million in dividends and purchase $490 million of the company's stock in the open market at an average price of about $50 per share.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。大家早安，下午好。請投影片 15。2024 年第一季度，又一個強勁的季節性季度與紅海狀況引發的噸英里需求急劇擴張相結合。在過去 5 個季度中，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 13 億美元，調整後淨利潤為 7.77 億美元。這些結果使我們能夠減少 5.57 億美元的債務，支付 7,900 萬美元的股息，並以每股約 50 美元的平均價格在公開市場購買 4.9 億美元的公司股票。

Slide 16, please. Deleveraging has been our primary focus. And as of today, we have reached our net debt target. We have not only reduced our leverage, but we have also simplified our balance sheet through more traditional forms of financing at lower cost and more flexible terms. We have successfully refinanced almost all of our legacy lease obligations into more traditional and lower-cost secured bank debt, which carries margins of less than 200 basis points. As shown in the chart on the right, our gross and net debt as of today stands at $1.4 billion and $811 million respectively.

請幻燈片 16。去槓桿一直是我們的首要關注。截至今天，我們已經達到了淨債務目標。我們不僅降低了槓桿率，而且還透過更傳統的融資形式、更低的成本和更靈活的條款簡化了我們的資產負債表。我們已成功將幾乎所有遺留租賃債務再融資為更傳統、成本更低的擔保銀行債務，其利潤率低於 200 個基點。如右圖所示，截至目前，我們的總債務和淨債務分別為 14 億美元和 8.11 億美元。

Slide 17, please. We are currently in discussions with the lenders on our $1 billion credit facility to make a prepayment of up to $223 million on the term portion of this loan. This amount represents up to 2 years of term loan amortization, which is for the period commencing in the third quarter of 2024 through and including the second quarter of 2026. This prepayment remains subject to lender credit committee approval and the execution of definitive documentation. If approved, repayments would not be scheduled to resume again until September 2026. We are taking this step in an effort to effect a significant and immediate reduction in our cash breakeven costs.

請投影片 17。目前，我們正在與貸方就 10 億美元的信貸安排進行討論，以便就該貸款的期限部分預付最多 2.23 億美元。該金額代表最長 2 年的定期貸款攤銷，期限為 2024 年第三季至 2026 年第二季（含）。此預付款仍須經貸款人信貸委員會批准並執行最終文件。如果獲得批准，還款計畫要到 2026 年 9 月才會再次恢復。我們採取這一步驟是為了立即大幅降低我們的現金損益平衡成本。

Accordingly, we project that the company's daily cash breakeven costs, which include vessel operating expenses, cash G&A, interest payments and regularly scheduled loan amortization will come down to about $12,500 per day on a pro forma basis after giving effect to this prepayment. We expect to continue to pursue ways to reduce our daily cash breakeven rates through additional debt and lease repayments. By pursuing a long-term reduction in our cash breakeven rates, we have positioned the company to opportunistically increase shareholder returns.

因此，我們預計，在預付款生效後，公司的每日現金損益平衡成本（包括船舶營運費用、現金管理費用、利息支付和定期貸款攤提）預計將降至每天約 12,500 美元。我們預計將繼續尋求透過額外債務和租賃償還來降低每日現金損益平衡率的方法。透過追求長期降低現金損益平衡率，我們讓公司能抓住機會增加股東回報。

Slide 18, please. Our second quarter of 2024 coverage across the fleet, including time charters, is averaging close to $38,600 per day. These rates demonstrate the company's operating leverage. At $30,000 per day, the company can generate $547 million in cash flow per year and at $40,000 per day, the company can generate $937 million per year. It is important to note that these estimates do not include any potential impact of the prepayment on our $1 billion credit facility.

請幻燈片 18。我們 2024 年第二季的船隊覆蓋範圍（包括期租）平均每天接近 38,600 美元。這些比率表明了該公司的營運槓桿。以每天 30,000 美元計算，公司每年可產生 5.47 億美元現金流；以每天 40,000 美元計算，公司每年可產生 9.37 億美元現金流。值得注意的是，這些估計值並不包括預付款對我們 10 億美元信貸額度的任何潛在影響。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Robert.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給羅伯特。

If Robert is not available. I don't know, Robert, if you're on mute or something, but...

如果羅伯特沒空。我不知道，羅伯特，你是否處於靜音狀態或什麼的，但是...

No, I'm sorry. Sorry. Well, I'd like to thank you very much, Chris. It's fantastic. And I just want to say just how enthusiastic all of us here in the Scorpio group is. We know we've been climbing this mountain a long time, many years and we finally got to this incredible stage where we've generally got a lot of things going for us.

不，我很抱歉。對不起。嗯，我非常感謝你，克里斯。這是夢幻般的。我只想說我們天蠍座團隊的所有人是多麼熱情。我們知道我們已經攀登這座山很長一段時間了，很多年了，我們終於到達了這個令人難以置信的階段，我們通常會得到很多東西。

We're the largest market cap company of pure product tanker companies. We have the highest liquidity in dollars per day trading volume. We have the newest fleet. We have the least need for fleet renewal and a sustainable dividend policy. And now we're ready to go. We're ready to go to the next place.

我們是純成品油輪公司中市值最大的公司。我們擁有最高的美元每日交易量流動性。我們擁有最新的機隊。我們對機隊更新和可持續股利政策的需求最少。現在我們準備出發了。我們準備好去下一個地方。

As Chris pointed out, we're even going to be -- by the end of next week, we're going to be below on that date range that we set out. Emanuele stated right from the beginning that with our stock trading well below NAV, our priority for return of capital would be share buybacks. Finally, we're expecting now through all this hard work with the delay of gratification that the shareholders have had in the last 6 months. We understand that, that can be frustrating, but it's been worth it because these operating cash breakeven are really low right now at $12,500 a day. That's like trough earnings. It's even lower if we actually looked at the breakeven related to the spot part of the fleet.

正如克里斯指出的那樣，到下週末，我們甚至將低於我們設定的日期範圍。埃馬努埃萊從一開始就表示，由於我們的股票交易遠低於資產淨值，我們資本回報的首要任務是股票回購。最後，我們現在期待透過所有這些努力工作，股東們在過去 6 個月中得到延遲的滿足。我們知道，這可能會令人沮喪，但這是值得的，因為這些營運現金收支平衡目前非常低，僅為每天 12,500 美元。這就像收入低谷。如果我們實際查看與船隊現貨部分相關的損益平衡點，這個數字甚至更低。

But $12,500, that almost withstands anything. That withstands the COVID, that terrible COVID year, the terrible 6 months or the worst period of the COVID year. And we're about to have our fair share of luck because right now the spot market is moving. It's moving upwards strongly across all sectors. And as James pointed out, the factors out there are super favorable and there's really no need for us to feel anything other than bullish. We observe that there is kind of fear the stock trades down. All the tanker stocks are weak. Whenever there's a mention of a ceasefire in Israel, Gaza, I guess it's because of the fear of opening up the Red Sea.

但 12,500 美元，幾乎可以承受任何事情。它能夠抵禦新冠病毒、可怕的新冠病毒一年、可怕的六個月或新冠病毒一年中最糟糕的時期。我們將獲得相當好的運氣，因為目前現貨市場正在改變。所有行業都在強勁上升。正如詹姆斯指出的那樣，目前的因素非常有利，我們除了看漲之外真的沒有必要感到任何其他的感覺。我們觀察到，人們對股票下跌感到擔憂。所有油輪庫存均疲軟。每當提到以色列和加薩的停火，我想都是因為擔心開放紅海。

But first of all, a ceasefire in Gaza does not necessarily mean you open the Red Sea straight away. Secondly, let's look at that fear. If we look into 2023 where there was no disruption to the Red Sea, the MR market has been more or less the same in this first quarter, this first 5 months as 2023.

但首先，加薩停火並不一定意味著立即開放紅海。其次，讓我們看看恐懼。如果我們展望 2023 年，紅海沒有受到干擾，那麼第一季（即前 5 個月）的 MR 市場與 2023 年的情況大致相同。

The LR2 market, depending on what quarter is maybe $5,000 to $10,000 stronger than 2023. But let's remember, 2023 was an outstanding year. So it's not really something we should be afraid of, especially as the company's breakeven levels have dropped so much because of debt renewal.

LR2 市場可能比 2023 年強 5,000 至 10,000 美元，具體取決於哪個季度。但請記住，2023 年是出色的一年。因此，這並不是我們真正應該害怕的事情，特別是考慮到該公司的損益平衡水準因債務更新而大幅下降。

So it's arguable if we look at the data, the historical data here, notwithstanding the fact that the market itself is fundamentally stronger today than it was in 2023 that the company could still earn pretty much -- would earn more than what it did in 2023 just because of the debt reduction.

因此，如果我們查看數據、歷史數據，這是有爭議的，儘管事實上今天的市場本身比2023 年從根本上更強，但該公司仍然可以獲得相當多的收入——將比2023 年賺得更多只是因為債務減少了。

So I think that some of the fears out there are overblown. Either case, as Emanuele said straight away, is the company is in great shape. It can face anything now and look at that situation as a great opportunity. With that, we're really excited, we're really bullish and just like to open that over to questions.

所以我認為有些擔憂有些言過其實。不管怎樣，正如埃馬努埃萊立即所說，公司狀況良好。現在它可以面對任何事情，並將這種情況視為一個很好的機會。對此，我們真的很興奮，我們真的很樂觀，並且想就此提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Omar Nokta of Clarksons Platou Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自Clarksons Platou 證券公司的Omar Nokta。

I've since moved to Jefferies. First off, congrats on reaching your debt target. And Robert, as you mentioned, you've been climbing this mountain. Now you're here and every available play is there for you now both strategically and financially.

我後來搬到了杰弗里斯。首先，恭喜您達到債務目標了。羅伯特，正如你所提到的，你一直在攀登這座山。現在你在這裡，每一個可用的遊戲現在都適合你，無論是在戰略上還是在經濟上。

I guess maybe first saying, now that you have reached this target threshold, does this change anything in how you're viewing the business? It sounds clearly that the buyback is now back and focus and the pause that we've seen for the past maybe 6 to 9 months as you focused on debt reduction has been well worth it. But in general, is there any kind of changes now that you've reached this target regarding the business that are coming?

我想也許首先要說的是，既然您已經達到了這個目標閾值，這是否會改變您對業務的看法？聽起來顯然，回購現在又回來了，並且成為焦點，而且我們在過去可能看到的 6 到 9 個月的暫停，因為您專注於減少債務，這是非常值得的。但總的來說，既然您已經達到了關於即將到來的業務的目標，是否有任何變化？

No. I mean if you're asking, do we think it's worthwhile going out and order the newbuildings? No. Do we think it's worthwhile buying ships? No. Are we willing to continue well as this spread to sell some of our older ships? Sure. But as you see, it's not like a drastic situation. We're just doing it one at a time or whatever it is taking great advantage of strong prices. I think that if there was -- if I think one thing that may -- not really a change because it was just an extension of where we were with 4 is that you are seeing these 3-year rates move up quite strongly -- the 2-year rate quite strongly.

不。我的意思是，如果你問，我們認為值得出去訂購新船嗎？不。我們認為值得購買船舶嗎？不。隨著這種情況的蔓延，我們是否願意繼續出售我們的一些舊船？當然。但正如你所看到的，情況並不嚴重。我們只是一次做一件事情，或充分利用強勁的價格。我認為，如果有——如果我認為可能發生的一件事——並不是真正的變化，因為這只是我們 4 的情況的延伸，那就是你看到這些 3 年期利率上升得相當強勁—— 2年期利率相當強勁。

And one of the things that our reduction in debt or reduction of costs and interest cost does do is that it makes now some of the charter levels super compelling in just putting in some rates, knowing where we are. If we knew a little bit more where our revenue line is that allows us to be more -- even more aggressive elsewhere. So if those one thing, I think that it's -- that the lowering of our cost structure has changed if you think of it this way.

我們減少債務或降低成本和利息成本所做的事情之一是，它使得現在的一些特許水平非常引人注目，只需輸入一些利率，知道我們在哪裡。如果我們更多地了解我們的收入線在哪裡，那麼我們就可以在其他地方更加積極。因此，如果你這樣想的話，我認為，如果你這樣想的話，我們成本結構的降低已經改變了。

Basically, the third quarter last year, those numbers that we're talking about $12,500 pretty close to the 20 in effective terms. That delta is huge. That means that if you are fixing a ship out to $40,000 a day, you -- that cost you 18, you've changed your 19, you've changed your free cash flow from 21 to 29. That's enormous. That's another real benefit of lowering these costs. And that would be the only change. But there's no rush. Look, we're very confident in the spot market, too, but there's no rush to go out there and put pile on the time charters.

基本上，去年第三季度，我們所說的 12,500 美元的數字非常接近有效值的 20。那個三角洲是巨大的。這意味著，如果你每天花費 40,000 美元修理一艘船，那麼你花了 18，你已經改變了你的 19，你已經將你的自由現金流從 21 改變到了 29。那是巨大的。這是降低這些成本的另一個真正好處。這是唯一的改變。但並不著急。看，我們對現貨市場也非常有信心，但並不急於去那裡購買期租合約。

No, it's nice rising interest rates and lower breakeven, very, very different times. I have a follow-up and just a bit more market related. Obviously, LR2s have been strong and they've really established a higher floor, higher ceiling this year, at least definitely relative to other segments in this -- whether it's crude or product. Rerouting has obviously played a role.

不，利率上升和損益平衡降低是件好事，這是非常非常不同的時期。我有一個後續行動，只是更多與市場相關的事情。顯然，LR2 一直很強大，而且今年他們確實建立了更高的底線、更高的上限，至少相對於這一領域的其他細分市場來說是肯定的——無論是原油還是成品油。重新路由顯然發揮了作用。

But I guess on that front, any color you can give on how much the LR2 capacity that had previously been trading dirty has come back into the clean trade to take advantage of this? And then I'm asking just simply because we now have also a lot of discussion on the [TMX] pipeline coming on. And does that perhaps change any of that cleaning up of 30 LR2s and then perhaps do clean LR2s want to migrate into the dirty trade, take advantage of that TMX opportunity? Any color you can give on that?

但我想在這方面，你能給出多少顏色，說明以前進行骯髒交易的 LR2 容量有多少回到了乾淨交易以利用這一點？然後我問這個問題只是因為我們現在也有很多關於 [TMX] 管道的討論。這是否可能會改變 30 個 LR2 的清理工作，然後乾淨的 LR2 是否想要遷移到骯髒的行業，利用 TMX 機會？你能給它什麼顏色嗎？

Us? Yes, I'll take it. I mean LR2 clean-dirty trading has obviously taken place for years, right? I mean, it oscillates. And I looked at this the other day. Can you hear me?

我們？是的，我會接受的。我的意思是 LR2 的乾淨交易顯然已經進行了很多年了，對吧？我的意思是，它會振盪。前幾天我看了這個。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

Yes, sorry. And has oscillated up and down between 220 units to 250 units trading clean over the last 3 or 4 years. So there has been a number of ships that have gone into clean from the dirty trade as they clean up. And you might recall that it takes a little bit of time to do that.

是的，抱歉。在過去 3、4 年裡，交易量在 220 至 250 單位之間上下波動。因此，有許多船隻在清理過程中從骯髒的貿易中恢復過來。您可能還記得，這樣做需要一點時間。

So it's obviously a big decision. If you look kind of more strategically in terms of number of vessels from a trading history perspective, it has kind of plateaued. It's not something that is a big issue for an LR2 owner to look at these things from an overall perspective because clearly, it's a very decent and a very constructive market.

所以這顯然是一個重大決定。如果從貿易歷史的角度更具策略性地看待船舶數量，就會發現它已經趨於穩定。對於 LR2 車主來說，從整體角度看待這些事情並不是什麼大問題，因為顯然，這是一個非常體面且非常有建設性的市場。

I think it's fair to say before answering your question on TMX, which I think is a really important one is when I look at it holistically on the market, it's close to firing on all cylinders, notwithstanding what goes on with the Bab-el-Mandeb and not going through Suez because we still have a lot of refining kind of output that is going to increase over the next couple of months in June, July as we go out of this kind of a big turnaround season that has taken place in the first quarter.

我認為在回答你關於 TMX 的問題之前可以公平地說，我認為這是一個非常重要的問題，當我在市場上全面審視它時，它幾乎全速運轉，儘管 Bab-el- 發生了什麼曼德布，而不是通過蘇伊士運河，因為我們仍有大量煉油類產量，在接下來的幾個月（六月、七月）中將增加，因為我們即將結束在2019 年發生的這種重大轉變季節。第一季。

And here, we still had a very strong first quarter. And now we're going into the second quarter. We can start seeing that there's more runs being built up, which is great. So if you look at Asia MRs, there have been trading. And I think as James was saying earlier on, around $40,000 per day. Those rates have been increasing.

在這裡，我們的第一季仍然非常強勁。現在我們即將進入第二季。我們可以開始看到有更多的跑步正在建立，這很棒。因此，如果你看看亞洲的 MR，你會發現一直存在交易。我認為正如詹姆斯早些時候所說，每天大約 40,000 美元。這些比率一直在增加。

Transpac has been good rates as well. China exports is going to be a big thing as we move into the second and third quarter. And again, talking about the LR2s, we've seen rates now moving up strongly. I think 15 points today trading to 25 to 30, probably gainfully around $60,000 a day for our ultra long-haul business same time.

Transpac 的費率也不錯。隨著我們進入第二季和第三季度，中國的出口將成為一件大事。再次，談到 LR2，我們看到費率現在強勁上漲。我認為今天 15 點的交易價格為 25 點到 30 點，同時我們的超長途業務每天的收益可能約為 60,000 美元。

Middle East has been good for MRs as well, trading probably $45,000 a day round voyage. The West has been a little bit slow, a little bit on the back of this refining turnaround. We've seen good activity this week as well. Rates have ramped up very much in the U.S. Gulf, a couple of $100,000 for cross-curves. That's also now trending up towards $30,000 a day. So all of this is good stuff. And James also talked about the new refineries and we see this every single day now. We live this every day and we can see how utilization levels have moved up on that.

中東也對 MR 有利，每日往返航程的交易額約為 45,000 美元。西方在煉油業的轉變過程中表現得有點慢。本週我們也看到了良好的活動。美國海灣地區的費率大幅上漲，交叉曲線的費率高達 10 萬美元。現在這個數字也正趨向於每天 3 萬美元。所以這一切都是好東西。詹姆斯也談到了新的煉油廠，我們現在每天都能看到這一點。我們每天都生活在這樣的生活中，我們可以看到利用率水準是如何提高的。

And also the disparity of the cargo selection that we can do, the triangulation availability, not only on MRs, but also now certainly on LR2s have impacted the way we do our business that's certainly in the ton-miles. When you talk about TMX, I call that like one of the new dynamics, which is like Dangote, which is a big thing, [Dos Bocas] in Mexico, which is coming up end of the year and then the TMX. Now TMX is a big thing for Aframaxes. And because of Aframax, we also have a big thing for LR2s.

而且我們可以做的貨物選擇的差異，三角測量的可用性，不僅在 MR 上，而且現在肯定在 LR2 上也影響了我們以噸英里為單位開展業務的方式。當你談論 TMX 時，我稱之為新動態之一，就像 Dangote，這是一件大事，墨西哥的 [Dos Bocas]，將於今年年底推出，然後是 TMX。現在，TMX 對於阿芙拉型油輪來說是一件大事。由於阿芙拉型油輪，我們對 LR2 也有很大的興趣。

If you ask TMX, they say that I think it's about 30 Aframax liftings per month out of Vancouver. And that's a lot of Aframaxes. And we've seen a couple of cargos now. They've gone to Asia. If it goes long-haul, it could be more than that. If it goes to California, it will be less than that. Whatever way you look at it, it's going to have a big impact on the Aframax market and through that also on the LR2s because there will be additional bottlenecking around these things.

如果你問 TMX，他們會說我認為每月從溫哥華起運的阿芙拉型油輪大約有 30 艘。還有很多阿芙拉型油輪。現在我們已經看到了幾批貨物。他們去了亞洲。如果是長途的話，可能會更多。如果去加州的話，會比這個少。無論你如何看待它，它都會對阿芙拉型油輪市場產生巨大影響，進而對 LR2 也產生重大影響，因為這些事情將會出現額外的瓶頸。

And when you talk about forward LR2 supply, you need to look at the overall context and you have to include the Aframaxes. So the Aframax order book today is extremely low when you combine it with the LR2. So you put all of this together, together with the fact that the LR2 and Aframaxes will reach 20 years of age, it doesn't equate to that. So I see this as a really strong kind of input or one of the new dynamics that really is going to improve the overall demand for Aframax/LR2s as we move into end of '24 and beyond.

當您談論 LR2 遠期供應時，您需要考慮整體背景，並且必須包括阿芙拉型油輪。因此，當您將阿芙拉型油輪與 LR2 結合時，如今的阿芙拉型油輪訂單量非常低。所以你把所有這些放在一起，再加上 LR2 和阿芙拉型船將達到 20 年的船齡這一事實，並不等於這一點。因此，我認為這是一種非常強大的輸入或新動力之一，隨著我們進入 24 世紀末及以後，它確實會改善對阿芙拉型/LR2 的整體需求。

Great. That's very obviously detailed and helpful color. So I appreciate that. And Robert, thank you as well. I'll turn it over.

偉大的。這是非常明顯的細節和有用的顏色。所以我很欣賞這一點。羅伯特，也謝謝你。我會把它翻過來。

Our next question comes from Jon Chappell of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Quick follow-up on strategy as it relates to vessel sales. It seems like the pace of disposals have been picking up a little bit through some of the announcements you made today. By my count, 6 2012 and 2013 vessels left. Clearly, you already have a lot of operating leverage. And per your commentary about your own NAV, there seems to be an [arb] there of a potential sale. So should we expect those to exit the fleet at some point in this year? Clearly, you don't need it from a deleveraging perspective, but can only just add to the bounty for the second half buyback?

快速跟進與船舶銷售相關的策略。從您今天發布的一些公告來看，處置的步伐似乎有所加快。據我統計，2012 年和 2013 年的船隻有 6 艘離開。顯然，您已經擁有很大的營運槓桿。根據您對自己的資產淨值的評論，似乎存在潛在出售的[套利]。那麼我們是否應該期望這些飛機在今年某個時候退出機隊呢？顯然，從去槓桿的角度來說不需要，只能增加下半年回購的獎勵？

I think that the better way to describe it is we'll deal with those opportunities -- opportunistically along the way.

我認為更好的描述方式是我們將抓住這些機會——一路上機會主義。

I don't think it's okay.

我覺得不行。

We want to discuss. I just don't think it's useful for us to discuss actual types of vessels and what our plans would be. I think it's much better for us to all the shareholders to just accept that we'll carry on. If we see vessels that are bids that are attractive to us, then we might engage and do that. We don't have to, but we might want to.

我們想討論一下。我只是認為討論船舶的實際類型和我們的計劃對我們來說沒有用。我認為所有股東都接受我們將繼續下去對我們來說要好得多。如果我們看到出價對我們有吸引力的船舶，那麼我們可能會參與並這樣做。我們不必這樣做，但我們可能想要這樣做。

Then for a follow-up to go back to, I think, James' first chart, I think the LR2s get a lot of focus because of the volatility there. But as you noted, the MRs have been pretty consistent throughout. Would it be fair to characterize the LR2s to be more of the disruptively impacted sector? But what's been happening in the MRs is kind of slow and steady, grinds higher, is more structural and related to demand and the refinery dislocation.

然後，我想，對於後續的回顧，詹姆斯的第一個圖表，我認為 LR2 由於那裡的波動性而受到了很多關注。但正如您所指出的，MR 自始至終都非常一致。將 LR2 描述為更多受到破壞性影響的行業是否公平？但MRs中發生的事情是緩慢而穩定的，磨得更高，更具結構性，並且與需求和煉油廠混亂有關。

And therefore, if there were to be some perceived, I guess, piece across the impacted regions, it would seem that the MRs would still have more of a structural boost and maybe the LR2s would be the ones at risk?

因此，我想，如果受影響地區有一些明顯的影響，那麼 MR 似乎仍將具有更多的結構性推動力，也許 LR2 會面臨風險？

I'll let Lars answer that in 2 seconds. But I think we just said we got back into historically, you still had a -- I just think you had just a wider spread between MRs and LR2s to the benefit of the LR2 whilst the Suez Canal is -- we're not transiting that as the owning group. But you still had in the -- in 2023, quite a wide -- still quite a wide spread to the LR2s in its favor.

我會讓拉斯在 2 秒內回答這個問題。但我想我們剛剛說過，我們回到了歷史，你仍然有一個 - 我只是認為你在 MR 和 LR2 之間有一個更廣泛的分佈，這有利於 LR2，而蘇伊士運河是 - 我們不會過渡那個作為擁有集團。但到 2023 年，LR2 仍然有相當大的優勢。

You also -- on the time charter market, it's difficult to determine. As I remember, the time charter market itself is saying that there is quite a wide spread again to the LR2s' favor. So we're only saying -- we're not saying that the market thinks that the Red Sea will be transitable. It is just saying, look, some of this sort of worry really isn't that much of a worry. Lars, do you want to add to that?

你也——在期租市場上，很難確定。我記得，定期租船市場本身表明，LR2 型船再次受到廣泛青睞。所以我們只是說——我們並不是說市場認為紅海將是可以通行的。它只是說，看，有些此類擔憂實際上並不是那麼令人擔憂。拉爾斯，你想補充一下嗎？

I think what we're seeing today also is that the LR2 is becoming more of a fungible unit. There is a lot more arbitrage that takes place on an LR2 today. The whole concept of what's going on, going back to the TMX thing has meant that the crossover between an LR2 and Aframax is evident. You can see that on the time charter market. You can also see it in the ordering market for newbuilds where most owners considering where the price point is today will be willing to pay the marginal increase for an LR2, which is limited now to have that optionality.

我認為我們今天看到的也是 LR2 正在變得更像是一個可替代的單元。如今，LR2 上存在更多套利行為。整個概念，回到 TMX 的事情，意味著 LR2 和阿芙拉型油輪之間的交叉是顯而易見的。您可以在期租市場上看到這一點。您也可以在新建船舶的訂購市場中看到這一點，考慮到當前的價格點，大多數船東都願意為 LR2 支付邊際增長費用，而 LR2 現在的選擇權受到限制。

So when you look at LR2/Aframax, you've got to look them together holistically. I think that, to your second point, Robert, where you talked about these factors of Bab-el-Mandeb and so on, obviously impacts the longer haul business, which, of course, impacts the LR2 by virtue of its size and therefore, you have it outsized. I think, on the normal market conditions, there will be that spread. But I do think that they both are kind of very viable, fungible tradable assets.

因此，當您查看 LR2/阿芙拉型油輪時，您必須將它們放在一起整體看待。我認為，羅伯特，關於你的第二點，你談到了曼德海峽等因素，顯然會影響長途業務，當然，這也會影響 LR2 的規模，因此，你的尺寸太大了。我認為，在正常的市場條件下，將會存在這種價差。但我確實認為它們都是非常可行的、可替代的可交易資產。

Yes. I mean you've seen some recent clarification in INSW's results yesterday where they have fixed MR and they are fixed an LR2. And that day, you can see that positive spread -- quite a wide positive spread to the LR2.

是的。我的意思是你昨天在 INSW 的結果中看到了一些最近的澄清，他們修復了 MR 並修復了 LR2。那天，您可以看到正價差——與 LR2 相比，相當大的正價差。

Our next question comes from Greg Lewis of BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Greg Lewis。

I guess my first one, Robert, James or Lars, is around the time charter market. I mean you called out the pickup and I guess, rates in the more longer-term 2-, 3-year time charter market. Just kind of curious at a high level, what types of customers are looking for those? Is it kind of the usual suspects? And as we think about the appetite from those charters, is the impediment on getting deals done? Like how wide do we think these bid-asks are at this point?

我想我的第一個，羅伯特，詹姆斯或拉爾斯，是關於期租市場的。我的意思是，您提出了皮卡，我猜，是更長期的 2 年期、3 年期租船市場的費率。只是從高層次好奇，什麼類型的客戶正在尋找這些？這是常見的嫌疑嗎？當我們考慮這些包機的需求時，這是否會成為完成交易的障礙？例如我們認為目前這些出價的範圍有多大？

First of all, I'd say that the bid-ask is not very wide because deals are being concluded quite regularly at this moment at levels that are gainful, both on LR2s and also on MRs. And there's quite a few out there looking consistently for longer-term charters, charters between 2, 3, 4 or 5 years. And basically, the client base is wide. It is national oil companies, it's traders, it's end users and it spans the globe.

首先，我想說的是，買賣價並不是很寬，因為此時此刻，無論是 LR2 還是 MR，交易都以有利可圖的水平定期達成。並且有相當多的人一直在尋求長期的特許，即 2 年、3 年、4 年或 5 年的特許。基本上，客戶群很廣泛。它是國家石油公司、貿易商、最終用戶，並且遍佈全球。

And just real quick on -- is there a preference for scrubbers?

快說一下—人們對洗滌器有偏好嗎？

There tends to be a preference for scrubbers, but it's not complete -- I mean -- or definite. There are some who do not want, but I'll probably say 80% for scrubbers.

人們往往偏愛洗滌器，但它並不完整——我的意思是——或明確的。有些人不想要，但我可能會說 80% 適合洗滌器。

And then just one, I wanted to touch a little bit on Dangote, kind of where -- that seems like it has the potential as the year progresses and I guess really even in the '25 to be a major driver of volumes. Any kind of updates you can share there, kind of what's been happening there? As you see it develop, is that as we think about the differences between MRs and LR2s, is that -- do we expect that to kind of evolve in the more of an LR2 market? Is it going to be mixed? Kind of just any high-level thoughts around that would be super helpful.

然後，我想稍微談一下 Dangote，隨著時間的推移，它似乎有潛力，我想即使在 25 年，它也會成為銷量的主要驅動力。您可以在那裡分享任何類型的更新嗎？正如您所看到的，當我們考慮 MR 和 LR2 之間的差異時，我們是否期望這種情況在 LR2 市場中有所發展？會不會混起來？任何有關此的高層次想法都會非常有幫助。

So it's very early days still, Greg. Dangote has just recently started up. And I think it's currently around 300,000 barrels a day. And I think there's a second distillation unit that's coming on stream in 6 weeks or something like that and that could start ramping up. And then suddenly, the product is going to become finished grade, which is not the case right now. We have seen exports. We have done a couple ourselves. There's been exports done on LR2s, long-haul.

所以現在還為時過早，格雷格。丹格特最近剛啟動。我認為目前每天的產量約為 30 萬桶。我認為第二個蒸餾裝置將在 6 週或類似的情況下投入運行，並且可能會開始加速。然後突然間，產品將成為成品等級，但現在的情況並非如此。我們看到了出口。我們自己也做了一些。LR2 已經完成了長途出口。

There's been a lot of MRs being done as well out of Dangote, which primarily has been going to some of the other West African countries, all very interesting from a product tanker owner perspective. As this start-up has taken place, it almost seems right now at the start-up stage that we -- there's that this third export market that's been created in the Western Atlantic together with the continent and the Med. So you have to bid the vessels or you have to start looking at pricing somewhat differently rather than being in the backwater of West Africa, where you tended to only have gone in with your imports.

丹格特也進行了許多 MR 項目，這些項目主要是前往其他一些西非國家，從成品油輪船東的角度來看，所有這些都非常有趣。隨著這一啟動的發生，我們現在似乎正處於啟動階段——在西大西洋以及歐洲大陸和地中海地區創建了第三個出口市場。因此，你必須對船隻進行投標，或者你必須開始以不同的方式考慮定價，而不是在西非的落後地區，在那裡你往往只進口進口產品。

Obviously, you would anticipate some reduction of imports over time from the continent. But I think we talked about this before, but there is a logical value trade because the premium finished product that's coming out of Dangote is high-grade, high-value stuff that's ultra-low-sulfur diesel, 1 ppm gasoline and stuff like that, which obviously goes and fetches a premium in the States or in Europe and other OECD markets, whereas the products that you normally would use in Nigeria of lower grade.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，您預計來自非洲大陸的進口會減少。但我想我們之前討論過這個問題，但這是一個合乎邏輯的價值交易，因為從丹格特出來的優質成品是高品位、高價值的東西，比如超低硫柴油、1 ppm 汽油等等，這顯然在美國或歐洲和其他經合組織市場上售價較高，而您通常在尼日利亞使用的產品等級較低。

So it obviously remains to be determined if what are the political pressures around that and what that's going to be. And I think that remains to be determined at some way or form. The other issue as well when it comes to Dangote, which is also something we need to find out is the whole supply infrastructure is also a big question. And I think there's going to be some issues around bottlenecking and double handling, that's going to pose. We can see that some of these things will need to have double handling, you need to have bigger ships in to work as STS as they do already today.

因此，圍繞這一問題的政治壓力是什麼以及將會是什麼，顯然仍有待確定。我認為這仍有待以某種方式或形式確定。另一個問題是丹格特，這也是我們需要弄清楚的，整個供應基礎設施也是一個大問題。我認為將會出現一些關於瓶頸和雙重處理的問題。我們可以看到，其中一些東西需要雙重處理，你需要有更大的船隻才能像今天一樣作為 STS 工作。

So it's going to be a really interesting thing to say and to see how that's going to develop over the next year. I think the final thing also that's quite interesting is that where it's placed, Dangote has excellent potential as a swing refinery. You can go east, west, you can do all these things. And I think I would imagine as this thing starts developing as a real up and running refinery with the size that it had, it would have a lot of potential because they will have a lot of NAFTA that can be exported.

因此，這將是一件非常有趣的事情，看看明年會如何發展。我認為最後一件非常有趣的事情是，丹格特在其所在地具有作為搖擺煉油廠的巨大潛力。你可以向東，向西，你可以做所有這些事情。我想我會想像，隨著這件事開始發展成為一個真正的、正常運作的煉油廠，其規模將具有很大的潛力，因為它們將有很多可以出口的北美自由貿易協定。

It will have a lot of jet fuel as well that they would not require in the local market. So it's an interesting one. Headwinds in terms of product coming from the continent going down to West Africa, you could assume that. But I think there's a lot of other stuff considering the size of this refinery and the quality of product that it's going to produce that will kind of come up with some interesting determinants for the market.

它還將擁有大量當地市場不需要的噴氣燃料。所以這是一個有趣的事情。您可以假設，從非洲大陸到西非的產品都存在阻力。但我認為，考慮到這家煉油廠的規模以及它將生產的產品質量，還有很多其他因素會為市場帶來一些有趣的決定因素。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特。

So congrats on meeting the net debt to NAV target. What a ride to get here. Just a minor one to start. Did you have fewer vessels in drydock or were the planned drydocking quicker moved through the quarter? It looked like it was a bit lower than what you had talked about last quarter. But then my question is, is rates for the MRs have improved on your quarter-to-date with a lower on LRs? Are you seeing any seasonal cooling off if we're looking at second quarter? Is there just bigger demand near-term? Just want to understand the very near-term market where we normally get that seasonal pullback. Lars, if you have any thoughts on that?

因此，恭喜您實現了淨債務與淨值之比的目標。到達這裡需要多長時間。剛開始只是一個小問題。您在乾船塢中的船舶數量是否減少了，或者計劃中的乾船塢在本季度內的移動速度是否加快了？看起來比你上季度談到的要低一些。但我的問題是，從本季至今，MR 的利率是否有所改善，而 LR 的利率是否有所下降？如果我們關注第二季度，您是否會看到季節性降溫？近期是否有更大的需求？只是想了解我們通常會出現季節性回調的近期市場。拉爾斯，你對此有什麼想法嗎？

The short answer to the second part of your question is I do not see seasonal pullback. I see a seasonal ramp up. And I don't think that what we have seen in the past in terms of what we would historically look at the market seasonality going back pre-2019 being the case. I do see that we're probably going to have a stronger summer than we have anticipated before. One, of course, is because of the refineries that we can see from the output that's going to happen over June, July. I think another thing also which is a key variable from a market perspective as an ingredient is China exports. We've talked about this in the past as well.

對你問題第二部分的簡短回答是，我不認為季節性回調。我看到季節性上升。我不認為我們過去所看到的情況與我們歷史上所看到的 2019 年之前的市場季節性情況是一樣的。我確實看到我們可能會經歷一個比我們之前預期的更強勁的夏天。當然，其中之一是因為我們可以從六月、七月的產量中看到煉油廠的情況。我認為從市場角度來看，另一件事也是一個關鍵變量，那就是中國的出口。我們過去也討論過這個問題。

There's been -- the second quarter was issued. It's higher than it was last year. The thing that I find quite interesting in that context is that before we were kind of being cannibalized somewhat by the newbuilds. But I can see that there's only one VLCC that's for delivery in '24. There's only 7 Suezmaxes, I think, that's been scheduled for the rest of the year.

第二季已經發布了。比去年還高。在這種情況下，我發現非常有趣的事情是，在我們被新建築所蠶食之前。但我可以看到只有一艘 VLCC 將於 24 年交付。我認為今年剩餘時間只有 7 艘蘇伊士型油輪。

So there's limited competition for this kind of China long-haul stuff that before we would talk about. It's not even something that I think about anymore. It's just -- it's another thing that just comes in and we're looking at some really kind of constructive stuff as we go into the second quarter.

因此，我們之前討論的這種中國長途航班的競爭有限。我甚至不再考慮這件事了。這只是——這是剛剛出現的另一件事，當我們進入第二季度時，我們正在研究一些真正有建設性的東西。

Great. Chris, thoughts on the days?

偉大的。克里斯，這些日子有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Ken, thanks for the question. There were slightly fewer drydocks. I'd also emphasize there were slightly fewer days of the drydocks that we had planned, which is good. Drydocks are always going to move around, especially in this market. There's vessel positioning. We've had some get pushed back from Q1 to Q2 and some get pushed back from Q2 to Q3. So we'll just keep updating that. But short answer is yes.

是的。肯，謝謝你的提問。幹船塢略少。我還要強調的是，我們計畫的乾船塢天數稍微減少了，這很好。幹船塢總是會移動，尤其是在這個市場。有船隻定位。我們有一些從第一季推遲到第二季度，有些從第二季度推遲到第三季度。所以我們會繼續更新。但簡短的回答是肯定的。

Perfect. Just looked a little different. And then, Robert, I guess, maybe just bigger picture or Emanuele, thoughts on cash, right? You've noted you're going to refocus on buybacks. But what's your vision for the fleet, right? You've got some opportunities, you mentioned on potentially selling some of the older vessels.

完美的。只是看起來有點不一樣。然後，羅伯特，我想，也許只是更大的願景或埃馬努埃萊，對現金的想法，對嗎？您已經注意到您將重新關注回購。但您對艦隊的願景是什麼，對吧？您提到可能出售一些舊船，您有一些機會。

Do you look at this as an ongoing entity for the next 20, 30 years? Do you look at it as we kind of run it to the end of the fleet life and monetize that? I just want to understand your vision for what comes next. I mean obviously, it's been a long ride to get here and to be able to have the optionality you now have, but just want to understand how you think about the next phase of the company structure.

您是否將其視為未來 20、30 年的持續實體？您是否會認為我們將其運行到機隊壽命結束並將其貨幣化？我只是想了解您對接下來的事情的願景。我的意思是，顯然，到達這裡並能夠擁有現在擁有的選擇權是一個漫長的旅程，但只是想了解您如何看待公司結構的下一階段。

I think you see it as an ongoing. But I don't think -- I know that we see there's an ongoing entity. I don't think that -- I don't think running it off to nothing is not something that's being discussed. Obviously, the other -- obviously, there's always a public company, the alternative of someone wanting to buy the company. But other than that, you look to carry the company forward.

我認為您將其視為一個持續的過程。但我不認為——我知道我們看到有一個持續存在的實體。我不認為——我不認為將其化為烏有並不是正在討論的事情。顯然，另一個——顯然，總是有一家上市公司，有人想要購買該公司的替代方案。但除此之外，你還希望推動公司向前發展。

Well, I ask just because I want to understand the timing of then when you'd have to start reinvesting to replace the vessels.

好吧，我問只是因為我想了解何時您必須開始再投資以更換船隻。

Long one...

長一...

I think -- if I may, Robert. I think we act -- I mean, the management team has, I think, shown that we act and leave as if it was forever and we are opportunistic and reactive when we have to be on up markets and on down markets. So as far as fleet renewal, I think that we have quite a bit of time to think about that. We still are sitting on the most modern fleet that any public company out there owns. We now have the lowest leverage or actually the lowest breakeven that we've seen in our company history. And we -- the beauty of where we are is that we do not have to take a decision today.

我想——如果可以的話，羅伯特。我認為我們採取了行動——我認為，管理團隊已經表明，我們的行動和離開就好像永遠一樣，當我們必須在上漲的市場和下跌的市場上時，我們都是機會主義的和被動的。因此，就機隊更新而言，我認為我們有相當多的時間來考慮。我們仍然擁有任何上市公司所擁有的最現代化的機隊。我們現在的槓桿率是公司歷史上最低的，或者實際上是最低的損益平衡點。而我們——我們所處的美妙之處在於我們今天不必做出決定。

Robert was saying before, yes, if we are receiving offers on existing vessels that are attractive enough, we will look at them or consider them and maybe continue trimming the fleet. However, we are enjoying these markets that are improving. And as we've all heard Lars' comments on what the markets are doing as we speak. So we are very relaxed, aware and open to opportunities going forward, knowing that we do not have to do anything for the coming quarters as we have to. But as we can do, yes, we have a lot of options ahead of us.

羅伯特之前說過，是的，如果我們收到對現有船舶足夠有吸引力的報價，我們會考慮或考慮它們，並可能繼續削減船隊。然而，我們正在享受這些正在改善的市場。正如我們所說的那樣，我們都聽到了拉爾斯對市場趨勢的評論。因此，我們非常放鬆，意識到並且對未來的機會持開放態度，因為我們知道我們不必為未來幾季做任何我們必須做的事情。但正如我們所能做的，是的，我們面前有很多選擇。

Our next question comes from Frode Morkedal of Clarksons Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自克拉克森證券公司的弗羅德·莫克達爾。

Just a quick question on the market discussion you just had. It's interesting to note that rates have been fairly similar to 2023 despite this Red Sea disruption, right? You would have thought perhaps a bigger impact on rates because of the ton-mile expansion. So just if you have any ideas on why rates haven't been higher? I guess part of the answer is related to refinery runs, but just curious if you have any other comments to that. That's the first part of it.

關於您剛剛進行的市場討論，我想問一個簡單的問題。有趣的是，儘管出現了紅海幹擾，但費率與 2023 年相當相似，對吧？您可能會認為，由於噸英里的擴張，可能會對費率產生更大的影響。那麼，如果您對為什麼利率沒有更高有任何想法嗎？我想部分答案與煉油廠運作有關，但只是好奇您是否對此有任何其他評論。這是第一部分。

I've got to be honest, I'm pretty happy with the kind of the rate structure as things are right now. I mean, there obviously has been kind of the refining maintenance in the States earlier and then obviously, the Middle East now and China also a couple of months ago. So all of that has been kind of front-loaded to some extent. As for first quarter, I think it's been absolutely fantastic. If I had to say if there's something that I think probably would change would be to see some of the arbs opening up from the west to the east. I mean the naphtha arb has been somewhat shut.

我必須說實話，我對目前的費率結構非常滿意。我的意思是，很明顯，美國早些時候進行了煉油維護，然後顯然，中東現在和幾個月前的中國也進行了維護。因此，所有這些在某種程度上都是預先加載的。至於第一季度，我認為這絕對是太棒了。如果我不得不說是否有什麼事情我認為可能會改變的話，那就是看到一些套利從西向東開放。我的意思是石腦油套利已經有些關閉。

I think a lot because of the distance, you have to go all the way around and the cost of opening up that arb simply was too dear. And therefore, that has been somewhat less. Skikda, for example, just looking at it from a very micro perspective is down for maintenance right now.

我認為很多是因為距離，你必須一路走來，而開放套利的成本實在是太昂貴了。因此，這個數字有所減少。例如，斯基克達（Skikda），僅從非常微觀的角度來看，現在就需要維護。

So that refinery, which is very much naphtha-related is not producing. So there are some other factors that you say, well, could there have been a bit more otherwise? I don't think it's a big thing to be honest. I think that rates generally have had, from a very high point, great volatility has been oscillating widely in some markets. The U.S. Gulf is a case in point where you've seen rates move up $20,000, $30,000 a day within a week.

因此，與石腦油密切相關的煉油廠沒有生產。所以你說還有一些其他因素，嗯，否則可以有更多的因素嗎？說實話，我認為這並不是什麼大事。我認為，利率通常從一個非常高的水平開始，在一些市場上一直大幅波動。美國海灣地區就是一個典型的例子，您可以看到利率在一周內每天上漲 20,000 美元、30,000 美元。

The second one that has also been like a funky ride has been the Middle East on MRs, has also moved up -- could move up 100 (inaudible) points also within a couple of days, creating this kind of uncertainty of how do you peg a market. So one thing I think is fair to say is that the underlying utilization level across the product tanker fleet is at a much higher level than we've seen before.

第二個也像一次時髦的旅程是中東的 MR，也有所上升 - 也可能在幾天內上升 100（聽不清楚）點，從而產生了這種如何掛鉤的不確定性市場。因此，我認為可以公平地說的一件事是，整個成品油輪船隊的基本利用率水平比我們以前看到的要高得多。

So it doesn't take very much we have seen now. And the sentiment generally with the owners as well is that it doesn't take them very long time to turn into a bull, which we don't have to go back that many years where we were flat-lining a lot and sentiment took a much longer time for it to kind of react to the fundamental prompt market dynamics.

所以我們現在看到的東西並不需要太多。業主們的普遍看法是，他們不需要很長時間就能轉變成牛市，我們不必回到那麼多年，當時我們的表現一直很平淡，情緒也有所下降。市場動態做出反應。

Yes. That's interesting. I mean I was looking at the IEA data. Q1 refining runs globally was down year-on-year, roughly about 81 million barrels per day. And then they predict a huge ramp up to 85 million in August. But I was thinking like we've been lower than you should have expected. And what happened in Q2 and Q3 when you have this ramp up if it happens, that's going to be very interesting, right?

是的。那很有意思。我的意思是我正在查看國際能源總署的數據。第一季全球煉油產量年減，約每天 8,100 萬桶。然後他們預測 8 月將大幅增加至 8,500 萬。但我想我們的表現比你預期的還要低。當第二季和第三季發生了什麼，如果發生這種情況，那將非常有趣，對吧？

I think you hit the nail on the head there, Frode. That's how I look at it, too. It's quite interesting with all the things that took place in terms of maintenance and the pullback. You would have in previous markets, going back to the number of years seen a lot more disruption and destruction in rates whereas we have been hovering very nicely at some very decent numbers in what tends to be a situation where rates would have reacted negatively.

我認為你說到點子上了，弗洛德。我也是這麼看的。在維護和撤回方面發生的所有事情都非常有趣。在以前的市場中，回顧過去的幾年，我們會看到利率出現更多的干擾和破壞，而我們一直在一些非常好的數字上徘徊，而利率往往會做出負面反應。

So if you add on all these elements and the stuff that you just talked about and also the stuff around China that I just mentioned earlier and so on, we are so close to this capacity utilization. We're north of 90% or whatever, that you just add a little bit to it and you start seeing extraordinary kind of increases that outsize the element of that because you're not trading at the margin.

因此，如果你添加所有這些元素以及你剛才談到的內容以及我剛才提到的中國週邊的內容等等，我們就非常接近這個產能利用率。我們已經超過了 90% 或其他什麼，您只需添加一點點，您就會開始看到非凡的增長，超出了其中的元素，因為您不是在保證金下進行交易。

Our next question comes from Chris Robertson of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的克里斯·羅伯遜。

Really excited to see the breakevens here. Fantastic job. Everybody just wanted to pass that along. But yes, my question is related to that. So if you engage in the prepayment, as you said you could get to the $12,500 level. Just curious, what is the breakeven level today before that prepayment?

看到這裡的收支平衡真的很興奮。太棒了。每個人都只是想傳遞這一點。但是，是的，我的問題與此相關。因此，如果您進行預付款，正如您所說，您可以達到 12,500 美元的水平。只是好奇，今天預付款前的損益平衡水準是多少？

Chris, it's about $16,000.

克里斯，大約是 16,000 美元。

Okay. Yes, I got you. I'm glad that it has that potential impact here. So that's what we were trying to get at. My second question is kind of the often overlooked Handymax segment. Just noticing quarter-to-date, rates have gone down a bit there. And there seems to be a case where there's, I don't know, a consistent mismatch between what some of the brokers provide in terms of the global averages versus what you guys actually put up. So I wanted to better understand the dynamic in that particular segment.

好的。是的，我找到你了。我很高興它在這裡具有潛在的影響。這就是我們想要達到的目標。我的第二個問題是經常被忽略的靈便型船舶部分。只是注意到本季至今，利率有所下降。我不知道，似乎有一種情況，一些經紀商提供的全球平均水平與你們實際提供的水平之間始終存在不匹配。所以我想更了解該特定細分市場的動態。

I'll start with that. I mean, I think the Handymax vessel -- Handy market is like our secret weapon. It's a small market, very aging market. It has the potential to ramp up extremely quickly. If you have a certain size and experience, you also have the ability to triangulate extremely well in terms of trading on the continent, on the Mediterranean, which is the primary market.

我將從那開始。我的意思是，我認為靈便型船舶－靈便市場就像是我們的秘密武器。這是一個很小的市場，而且是一個非常老化的市場。它有潛力以極快的速度成長。如果你有一定的規模和經驗，你也有能力在非洲大陸、地中海（這是主要市場）的貿易方面進行非常好的三角測量。

It also has 2 markets within that. One is clean and one is dirty. So you've got kind of like 4 markets going on in an area where you can optimize around that. It is certainly a very intensive business. So you need a lot of kind of focus around it. You need to have a number of ships to be able to optimize.

其中還有兩個市場。一種是乾淨的，一種是骯髒的。因此，您可以圍繞某個領域進行 4 個市場的最佳化。這無疑是一項非常密集的業務。所以你需要對此給予很多關注。您需要擁有大量船隻才能進行最佳化。

It's not a market that I would suggest that you go in with 2 or 3 ships. But you need to have kind of critical mass. And that also is a market which I didn't talk about it earlier when I was asked about the spot market, but that has also picked up a lot over the last couple of weeks or last week actually and that's also trading probably on those 4 markets that I mentioned, somewhere around $30,000 a day today -- $25,000 to $30,000.

我不建議你用 2 或 3 艘船進入這個市場。但你需要有一定的臨界質量。這也是一個市場，當我早些時候被問及現貨市場時，我沒有談論這個市場，但實際上在過去幾週或上週，這個市場也有很大增長，而且也可能在這4 個市場上進行交易。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Emanuele Lauro, Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回執行長 Emanuele Lauro 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator. No closing remarks from our side. Just thanking you all for your time and attention today and looking forward to speaking very soon. Thanks a lot.

謝謝你，接線生。我們這邊沒有結束語。感謝大家今天的時間和關注，並期待盡快發言。多謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。