Scorpio Tankers Inc (STNG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Inc fourth quarter 2023 conference call. I would now like to turn the call over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and IR. Please go ahead, sir.

您好，歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers Inc 2023 年第四季電話會議。我現在想將電話轉給企業發展和投資者關係主管詹姆斯·多伊爾 (James Doyle)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Emanuele Lauro, Chief Executive Officer; Robert Bugbee, President; Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating Officer; Chris Abella, Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您今天加入我們。歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是執行長 Emanuele Lauro；羅伯特‧巴格比，總裁；卡梅倫‧麥基，營運長；克里斯·阿貝拉，財務長。

Earlier today, we issued our fourth quarter earnings press release, which is available on our website. scorpiotankers.com. The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, February 14, 2024, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release as well as Scorpio Tankers' SEC filings, which are available at scorpiotankers.com and sec.gov.

今天早些時候，我們發布了第四季度收益新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站上取得。 scorpiotankers.com。本次電話會議討論的資訊是基於截至今天（2024 年 2 月 14 日）的信息，可能包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類聲明中提出的結果有重大差異。為了討論這些風險和不確定性，您應該查看收益新聞稿中披露的前瞻性聲明以及 Scorpio Tankers 向 SEC 提交的文件（可在 scorpiotankers.com 和 sec.gov 上取得）。

Call participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the Internet and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website for approximately 14 days. We will be giving a short presentation today. The presentation is available at scorpiotankers.com on the Investor Relations page under reports and presentation. The slides will also be available on the webcast.

請通話參與者註意，本次電話會議的音訊正在網路上現場直播，並且也被錄製以供回放。網路廣播的存檔將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供約 14 天。今天我們將做一個簡短的演講。此簡報可在 scorpiotankers.com 投資者關係頁面的報告和簡報下查看。這些幻燈片也將透過網路廣播提供。

(Conference Instructions) Now I'd like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer. Emanuele Lauro.

（會議須知）現在我想介紹一下我們的執行長。埃馬努埃萊·勞羅.

Thank you, James, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We appreciate your time. We're pleased to report another quarter and another year of strong financial results. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the company generated $237 million in adjusted EBITDA and more than $142 million in adjusted net income. For the full year 2023, the company generated $959 million in adjusted EBITDA and more than $570 million in adjusted net income.

謝謝詹姆斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們感謝您的寶貴時間。我們很高興地報告另一個季度和一年的強勁財務業績。2023年第四季，該公司調整後 EBITDA 為 2.37 億美元，調整後淨利超過 1.42 億美元。2023 年全年，該公司調整後 EBITDA 為 9.59 億美元，調整後淨利超過 5.7 億美元。

The fundamentals which have created a strong rate environment over the last two years remain intact. Those still are an increasing global demand for refined products, a dislocated refining capacity, and a constrained maritime supply curve. In addition to this, we've seen low water levels in the Panama Canal, attacks in the Red Sea, and sanctions on Russia, which have led to the rerouting of vessels. This has made the fleet more inefficient and further tighten supply against a strong demand curve.

過去兩年創造強勁利率環境的基本面依然完好。這些仍然是全球對成品油的需求不斷增加、煉油能力錯置以及海運供應曲線受限。除此之外，我們還看到巴拿馬運河水位低、紅海襲擊以及對俄羅斯的製裁導致船隻改道。這使得船隊效率更加低下，並在強勁的需求曲線下進一步收緊供應。

The cash flow from the elevated rate environments are significant. They have also been transformative for our company. The balance sheets and the quality of Scorpio Tankers as an investment has become stronger and continues to improve. Deleveraging has been and remains our primary focus. Over the last two years, the company has reduced lease financing by almost$2 billion and our total debt by $1.6 billion.

高利率環境帶來的現金流量非常可觀。它們也為我們公司帶來了改變。天蠍油輪的資產負債表和投資品質已變得更強並持續改善。去槓桿一直是並且仍然是我們的首要關注點。過去兩年，公司減少了近 20 億美元的租賃融資，總債務減少了 16 億美元。

In the first quarter of 2024, we will repay $316 million in debt and today, our net debt stands at just a shade below $1.1 billion, and we feel very well positioned at these levels. Over the last two years, we have returned $732 million to shareholders. And this has been returned through share repurchases and through dividends, which includes $548 million or roughly $10 per share in 2023 alone. Today, we have announced another increase in our quarterly dividend, which is now $0.4 per share. This is our fourth increase since 2022.

2024 年第一季度，我們將償還 3.16 億美元的債務，如今，我們的淨債務略低於 11 億美元，我們感覺在這些水平上處於非常有利的位置。過去兩年，我們已向股東返還 7.32 億美元。這是透過股票回購和股息回報的，其中僅 2023 年就包括 5.48 億美元，即每股約 10 美元。今天，我們宣布再次增加季度股息，目前為每股 0.4 美元。這是我們自 2022 年以來第四次升息。

Looking forward, we expect low global inventories, robust demand, and limited fleet growth to support the strong product tanker fundamentals, which we've experienced in the last two years. I'd just like to thank you for your continued support. And I would like to now turn the call to James for a brief presentation. Thank you. James, please.

展望未來，我們預計全球庫存較低、需求強勁和船隊成長有限，將支援過去兩年我們經歷的強勁成品油輪基本面。我只想感謝您一直以來的支持。現在我想請詹姆斯做一個簡短的介紹。謝謝。詹姆斯，請。

Thank you, Emmanuel. Slide 7 please. For the last two years, increasing demand, low inventories, refining capacity changes, and limited fleet growth has led to a robust rate environment. In the fourth quarter, this continued. LR2 rates improved through the end of December as Middle East refining runs increased after an early maintenance season, moving from $36,000 up to $50,000 per day before any disruptions in the Red Sea.

謝謝你，伊曼紐。請幻燈片 7。過去兩年，不斷增長的需求、低庫存、煉油能力變化以及有限的船隊成長導致了強勁的利率環境。第四季度，這種情況仍在繼續。LR2 費率在 12 月底有所改善，因為中東煉油運行量在早期維護季節後有所增加，在紅海出現任何中斷之前從每天 36,000 美元上漲至 50,000 美元。

MR were lifted by the strength in the US Gulf market, which offset slightly lower rates in Europe and Asia. Today, Asia and Europe are lifting rates for MRs as peak refinery maintenance in the US starts to wind down this month. With low global inventories, Middle East maintenance behind us, and the US working through peak maintenance now, the outlook for product tankers remains very constructive.

MR 受到美國海灣市場強勁的推動，抵消了歐洲和亞洲利率小幅下降的影響。如今，隨著美國煉油廠維護高峰期本月開始逐漸結束，亞洲和歐洲正在提高 MR 費率。由於全球庫存較低，中東維護工作已結束，而美國目前正處於維護高峰期，成品油輪的前景仍然非常樂觀。

As Emanuele mentioned, disruptions have led to new trade flows and rerouting of vessels, which has further tightened supply. However, this would not be possible without strong headline demand for refined products.

正如埃馬努埃萊所提到的，中斷導致了新的貿易流動和船隻改道，這進一步收緊了供應。然而，如果沒有對成品油的強勁整體需求，這是不可能實現的。

Slide 8, please. Global demand for refined products has been extremely strong, and we expect this to continue. 2024 refined product demand on average is expected to surpass 2023 by 1.4 million barrels per day and will be driven by increases in jet, fuel, naphtha, diesel, and gasoline. As global demand has increased, so have seaborne exports. January refined product exports averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels per day higher than January 2019 levels.

請幻燈片 8。全球對成品油的需求極為強勁，我們預期這種情況將持續下去。 2024 年煉油產品需求平均將比 2023 年增加 140 萬桶/日，這將受到噴射機、燃油、石腦油、柴油和汽油成長的推動。隨著全球需求的增加，海運出口也增加。1月成品油出口量平均為2,060萬桶/日，比2019年1月的水準增加130萬桶/日。

Given the low global inventories, increased consumption will continue to be met through higher imports and not only of imports increase, but barrels are traveling longer distances.

鑑於全球庫存較低，消費的增加將繼續透過增加進口來滿足，不僅進口增加，而且桶的運輸距離也更長。

Slide 9, please. While demand is above pre-COVID levels, refining capacity is more dislocated. One of the biggest challenges has been diesel. Europe, Latin America, and Africa all have a diesel deficit of 1 million barrels per day. Capacity closures in Europe, North America, and certain parts of Asia have been offset by increases in export oriented capacity in the Middle East and India.

請幻燈片 9。雖然需求高於新冠疫情前的水平，但煉油能力更加混亂。最大的挑戰之一是柴油。歐洲、拉丁美洲和非洲的柴油缺口均為每天 100 萬桶。歐洲、北美和亞洲某些地區的產能關閉已被中東和印度出口導向產能的增加所抵銷。

Opening of new export oriented refineries and closing of older, less efficient refineries has led to an increase in seaborne exports ton-miles and ton-miles. We have seen this in Australia where imports have increased already above the lost production after closing two large refineries in 2020. Last week, it was announced that 150,000 barrel per day refinery in Scotland is expected to close and will being converted into a fuel oil terminal.

新的出口導向煉油廠的開設和舊的、效率較低的煉油廠的關閉導致海運出口噸英里數和噸英里數的增加。我們在澳洲看到了這一點，在 2020 年關閉兩家大型煉油廠後，進口量的成長已經超過了產量損失。上週，有消息指出蘇格蘭日產量15萬桶的煉油廠預計將關閉，並將改建為燃料油碼頭。

Excluding the impact of Russian exports in ton-miles, ton miles demand has increased over 7% compared to 2019 level. In other words, the structural changes in refining capacity have and continue to reshape flows and increase ton-mile. As tonne-mile demand increases, vessel capacity is reduced and supply tightens.

排除俄羅斯噸英里出口的影響，噸英里需求與 2019 年水準相比增加了 7% 以上。換句話說，煉油能力的結構性變化已經並將繼續重塑流量並增加噸英里。隨著噸英里需求的增加，船舶運力減少，供應緊張。

Slide 10, please. Disruptions have exacerbated the strong supply and demand fundamentals in our market. First, 485 product tankers that carry aggression refined product, many of which are older vessels that will have a difficult time returning to the premium trades given their age and trading history. This has and will continue to benefit the supply of vessels servicing non-sanctioned trades.

請投影片 10。中斷加劇了我們市場強勁的供需基本面。首先是 485 艘運載精煉產品的成品油輪，其中許多是較舊的船舶，鑑於其船齡和貿易歷史，它們將很難重返優質貿易。這已經並將繼續有利於為非制裁貿易提供服務的船舶供應。

Second, lower water levels in the Gatun Lake, which feeds the Panama Canal, has led to a reduction in the number of ships allowed to transit the canal from 36 to 24 per day. In the fourth quarter, this resulted in a reduction of 200,000 barrels a day of refined product moving through the Panama Canal and needing to travel a longer distance. Third, the attacks in the Red Sea have reduced volumes going through the Suez Canal.

其次，為巴拿馬運河供水的加通湖水位較低，導致允許通過運河的船隻數量從每天 36 艘減少到 24 艘。第四季度，通過巴拿馬運河運輸且需要運輸更遠距離的成品油每天減少了 20 萬桶。第三，紅海的襲擊減少了通過蘇伊士運河的吞吐量。

Slide 11, please. Before the attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea 2 million to 3 million barrels of refined product were transiting the Suez Canal each day, roughly 10% to 15% of the global seaborne product tanker trade. And this was about 1 million barrels a day higher than prior years because of the increase in distillate coming from the Middle East to supply Europe, given the sanctions on Russia.

請投影片 11。在紅海商船遇襲之前，每天有 200 萬至 300 萬桶成品油通過蘇伊士運河，約佔全球海運成品油油輪貿易量的 10% 至 15%。由於俄羅斯受到製裁，來自中東供應歐洲的餾分油數量增加，因此比往年每天增加約 100 萬桶。

Many vessels are going around the Cape of Good Hope today with Canal volume dropping to around 200,000 barrels per day for the first week of February. Depending on the route, this can increase the voyage length by 30% to 70%. The rerouting of vessels have made the fleet warrant and efficient, tightening supply, and leading to higher rates.

今天，許多船隻繞行好望角，2 月第一周運河吞吐量降至每天 20 萬桶左右。根據航線的不同，這可以將航程長度增加 30% 至 70%。船舶的改道使船隊可靠和高效，供應緊張，並導致費率上升。

Slide 12, please. The order book is 12% of the current fleet. New orders have started to slow given expensive new billing prices, long lead times for delivery, and uncertainty about propulsion systems to satisfy future environmental regulation. In addition, the majority of the order book is LR2 vessels. 52% of the LR2 fleet trading clean products today, the effective order for vessels trading and claim is going to be less than current 12%.

請投影片 12。訂單量佔現有機隊的 12%。由於新的計費價格昂貴、交貨週期長以及推進系統滿足未來環境法規的不確定性，新訂單已開始放緩。此外，大部分訂單都是LR2船舶。目前 52% 的 LR2 船隊交易清潔產品，船舶交易和索賠的有效訂單將低於目前的 12%。

Also the fleet is aging. The average age of the product tanker fleet today is 13 years with 9% of the fleet 20 years and older. Starting this year, 8 million deadweight tons of product tankers will turn 20 years old each year, the equivalent of 160 MRs per year. By 2026, 21% of the fleet will be 20 years and older.

此外，機隊也在老化。目前成品油輪船隊的平均船齡為 13 年，其中 9% 的船隊船齡為 20 年及以上。從今年開始，800萬載重噸成品油輪每年將達到20歲，相當於每年160艘MR。到 2026 年，21% 的機隊機齡將達到 20 年及以上。

Slide 13, please. This year's fleet growth is expected to be the lowest fleet growth since 2000 at less than 1%. Seaborne exports and ton-mile demand are expected to increase 2.8% and 7.3% respectively, vastly outpacing supply. Using minimal scrapping assumptions relative to the age of the fleet, on average, the fleet will grow around 3% in 2025 and 2026, and close to 0% in 2027.

請幻燈片 13。今年的機隊成長預計將是2000年以來最低的機隊成長，低於1%。海運出口和噸英里需求預計將分別成長 2.8% 和 7.3%，大大超過供應。使用相對於船隊年齡的最小報廢假設，平均而言，2025 年和 2026 年船隊將增加 3% 左右，2027 年接近 0%。

In addition, one and three year time charter rates remained at high level, evidence that our customers' outlook is one of increasing export and ton-miles against the constrained supply curve. The confluence of factors in today's market are constructive individually, flow inventories, increasing demand, exports and ton-miles, structural dislocations in their refinery system, rerouting of global product flows, limited fleet growth, upcoming environmental regulations, collectively they're unprecedented.

此外，一年期和三年期租船費率保持在高水平，這證明我們的客戶的前景是在供應曲線有限的情況下增加出口和噸英里。當今市場中的各種因素的融合都是建設性的，流動庫存、不斷增長的需求、出口和噸英里、煉油系統的結構性混亂、全球產品流的重新安排、有限的船隊增長、即將出台的環境法規，總的來說，這些都是前所未見的。

With that, I would like to turn it over to Chris to go through the financial slides.

有了這個，我想把它交給克里斯來瀏覽財務幻燈片。

Thank you, James, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Slide 15, please. As we have highlighted, cash flows from a strong rate environment have been significant and transformative for the company. Over the last two years, product tanker rates have been resilient. 2023 was a reflection of a strong market that found equilibrium after the events of 2022.

謝謝詹姆斯，大家早安，下午好。請投影片 15。正如我們所強調的，強勁的利率環境帶來的現金流對公司來說意義重大且具有變革性。過去兩年，成品油輪運價一直保持彈性。 2023 年反映了市場在 2022 年事件之後找到了平衡的強勁市場。

As the chart in the upper left illustrates the fourth quarter of 2023 was marked by a normalized seasonal uptick in demand heading into the winter months. The impact of the recent events in the Red Sea will largely be seen in our first quarter results. Over the last few years, we have generated over $2 billion in EBITDA and reduced our gross outstanding debt by $1.6 billion. In addition to that, since the fourth quarter of 2022, we have increased our quarterly dividend by 300%. And during 2023 alone, we returned $548 million or approximately $10 per share to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

如左上角的圖表所示，進入冬季後，2023 年第四季的需求將出現正常化的季節性成長。最近紅海事件的影響將在很大程度上體現在我們第一季的業績中。在過去幾年中，我們的 EBITDA 已超過 20 億美元，未償債務總額減少了 16 億美元。除此之外，自 2022 年第四季以來，我們將季度股利增加了 300%。僅在 2023 年期間，我們就以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 5.48 億美元，即每股約 10 美元。

Slide 16, please. As we have stated in the past, deleveraging remains our primary focus and we have made meaningful progress in this respect. As the chart on the left illustrates, our gross outstanding debt at December 31, 2021, stood at $3.2 billion. As of today, this balance is $1.5 billion. The chart on the right shows the same progression, but more importantly, highlights the shift in the mix and composition of our debt, transitioning away from expensive lease financing into more traditional bank financing with lower costs and greater flexibility.

請幻燈片 16。正如我們過去所說，去槓桿仍然是我們的首要任務，我們在這方面取得了有意義的進展。如左圖所示，截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日，我們的未償債務總額為 32 億美元。截至目前，該餘額為 15 億美元。右圖顯示了相同的進展，但更重要的是，凸顯了我們債務組合和組成的轉變，從昂貴的租賃融資過渡到成本更低、靈活性更大的更傳統的銀行融資。

Looking back $1.7 billion of our outstanding debt at December 31, 2022, consisted of lease financing obligations bearing margins of over 350 basis points on average. Today, our lease financing obligations stand at just $294 million, and we have committed to repurchasing 12 more leased vessels between now and the end of the second quarter. Once complete, these repurchases will bring our obligations under lease financing arrangements down to approximately $80 million.

回顧截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的未償債務為 17 億美元，其中包括租賃融資義務，平均利潤率超過 350 個基點。如今，我們的租賃融資義務僅為 2.94 億美元，我們承諾從現在到第二季末再回購 12 艘租賃船舶。一旦完成，這些回購將使我們在租賃融資安排下的義務減少至約 8,000 萬美元。

We have refinanced a considerable portion of our lease obligations in the more traditional and lower-cost secured bank debt, which carries margins of less than 200 basis points on average. We also want to highlight that the terms and conditions of this newer debt provide the company with greater flexibility, including the ability to repay these loans at any time and $500 million of revolving credit, of which $288 million is available today.

我們以更傳統、成本更低的擔保銀行債務對相當一部分租賃債務進行了再融資，這些債務的平均利潤率不到 200 個基點。我們還想強調的是，這筆新債務的條款和條件為公司提供了更大的靈活性，包括隨時償還這些貸款的能力以及 5 億美元的循環信貸，其中 2.88 億美元目前可用。

In sum, we have not only reduced our leverage but we've also simplified our balance sheet through more traditional forms of financing at lower cost and more flexible terms.

總而言之，我們不僅降低了槓桿率，而且還透過更傳統的融資形式、更低的成本和更靈活的條款簡化了我們的資產負債表。

Slide 17, please. Looking ahead, we still have more work to do as we have committed to repurchasing $209 million of lease obligations between now and the end of the second quarter. This comes on the heels of $497.1 million in unscheduled debt and lease repayments in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $171.1 million of unscheduled debt and lease repayments thus far in the first quarter of 2024.

請投影片 17。展望未來，我們仍有更多工作要做，因為我們承諾從現在到第二季末回購 2.09 億美元的租賃債務。在此之前，2023 年第四季計劃外債務和租賃償還額為 4.971 億美元，2024 年第一季迄今計劃外債務和租賃償還額為 1.711 億美元。

Over the same period, we drew $423.6 million from our $1 billion credit facility and $50.2 million from our $94 million credit facility, each carrying margins below 200 basis points. On a pro forma basis, after considering our committed lease repurchases, our gross and net debt stand at $1.3 billion and $1.1 billion respectively. Moreover, with no new buildings on order and the expiration of options to purchase and install scrubbers on 11 of our vessels, we have manageable CapEx requirements.

同期，我們從 10 億美元信貸額度中提取了 4.236 億美元，從 9,400 萬美元信貸額度中提取了 5,020 萬美元，兩者的利潤率均低於 200 個基點。按預計，在考慮我們承諾的租賃回購後，我們的總債務和淨債務分別為 13 億美元和 11 億美元。此外，由於沒有訂購新建築，並且在我們的 11 艘船上購買和安裝洗滌器的選擇權到期，我們的資本支出要求是可控的。

Slide 18, please. The company has significant operating leverage. Our first quarter of 2024 coverage across the fleet, including time charters is averaging close to $39,000 per day. At $30,000 per day, the company can generate over $750 million in free cash flow per year, and at $40,000 per day, almost $1.2 billion. Additionally, our cash breakeven rate had declined and we continue to seek ways to reduce it in a balanced and prudent manner.

請幻燈片 18。該公司擁有顯著的經營槓桿。我們 2024 年第一季的船隊覆蓋範圍（包括期租）平均每天接近 39,000 美元。以每天 3 萬美元計算，該公司每年可產生超過 7.5 億美元的自由現金流，以每天 4 萬美元計算，則接近 12 億美元。此外，我們的現金損益平衡率已經下降，我們將繼續尋求以平衡、審慎的方式降低現金損益平衡率的方法。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Q&A.

因此，我想將通話轉至問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

John Chappell, Evercore.

約翰·查佩爾，Evercore。

Thank you. Good morning. I don't know if who want to take this one, kind of open it to the group. But clearly, as Chris just laid out, the targets on net debt are going to be achieved at some point in the early part of this year, if not the end of the first quarter. There's a lot more uncertainty in the world right now, obviously. So there's been some turbo charge in rates, that's helped you kind of accelerate the debt repayment. But I think a lot of uncertainty in how the world plays out from here.

謝謝。早安.我不知道誰想拿這個，有點向小組開放。但顯然，正如克里斯剛剛指出的那樣，淨債務目標即使不是第一季末，也將在今年年初的某個時候實現。顯然，現在世界上存在著更多的不確定性。所以利率上有一些渦輪增壓，這在一定程度上幫助你加速了債務償還。但我認為從現在開始世界將如何發展存在著許多不確定性。

So versus where we were three, six months ago and you talked about target net debt levels and you may be shifting capital allocation, how do you see attaining those targets earlier versus maybe continuing to deleverage further, just given a lot of the volatility in the markets today?

因此，與我們三、六個月前的情況相比，您談到了目標淨債務水平，並且您可能會改變資本配置，您如何看待更早實現這些目標，而不是繼續進一步去槓桿化，考慮到經濟波動很大今天的市場？

John, it's Robert. I think it's a great question, and it's a question that we're obviously asking ourselves. I think that the [growing unfortunate] position with management and shareholders then is right now, this market is providing extraordinary returns. And so the one thing we know is those cash flows coming in, our balance sheet is improving.

約翰，這是羅伯特。我認為這是一個很好的問題，而且我們顯然也在問自己這個問題。我認為，當時管理階層和股東的[日益不幸的]處境就是現在，這個市場正在提供非凡的回報。因此，我們知道的一件事是現金流進來，我們的資產負債表正在改善。

We have really no idea at all, whether or not this will continue. Whether the Red Sea will continue to be effectively closed and helping extraordinary earnings. And so I think the -- we haven't seen -- we have reached our target yet. We don't intend to comment on what we would do with regard to capital return when reaching the target. We're happy to say that we're not looking to do new buildings. And I think that it is a difficult situation to make a lot of decisions in the market environment we have right now.

我們真的不知道這種情況是否會繼續下去。紅海是否會繼續有效封閉並幫助實現非凡收益。所以我認為——我們還沒有看到——我們已經達到了我們的目標。我們不打算評論達到目標後我們將如何處理資本回報。我們很高興地說，我們不打算建造新建築。我認為在我們現在的市場環境下做出很多決定是一個困難的情況。

So but at the same time, we are confident, as James has pointed out, in the long-term fundamentals. So the way I'd answer at the moment is the basic operational position of the company at the moment is that, however, unrealistic that might be, we are running the company as if the Red Sea were to open tomorrow.

因此，但同時，正如詹姆斯所指出的那樣，我們對長期基本面充滿信心。因此，我目前的回答是，公司目前的基本營運狀況是，然而，這可能不切實際，我們正在經營公司，就好像紅海明天就會開放一樣。

And on that basis, we still think that the market will be very strong. It will take a time to wind down from where we are to, let's say, put the shipping routes together, and we're happy to share with everybody what we would call our base case -- what we would think open days would be for the rest of the quarter. And so we would intending on our base case on that assumption, working assumption are giving you is we would expect.

在此基礎上，我們仍然認為市場將非常強勁。比方說，將航線整合在一起需要一段時間，我們很高興與大家分享我們所謂的基本情況——我們認為開放日的目的本季剩餘時間。因此，我們將根據該假設來製定我們的基本情況，工作假設給您的正是我們所期望的。

MRs to be around $35,000 a day for them six days, LR2 around $60,000 for them six days. So that's healthy. So I think the best thing to say is, yes, we are moving very fast towards a deleverage state where the company can then have a lot of choices. We're certainly not distracting ourselves right now on thinking what those -- what the best choices would be at that time. Whether you -- whatever we do, and we just want to keep our eye on the goal right now on the mission of taking the debt down.

MR 為期六天每天約為 35,000 美元，LR2 為期六天每天約為 60,000 美元。所以這是健康的。所以我認為最好的說法是，是的，我們正在快速走向去槓桿化狀態，這樣公司就可以有很多選擇。我們現在當然不會分散自己的注意力去思考當時最好的選擇是什麼。無論你——無論我們做什麼，我們只想專注於現在的目標，即減少債務的使命。

Okay. That makes sense. For my follow-up, this may seem like pretty small, but maybe it helps us shape your thoughts on strategy going forward as well. Letting those scrubber options expire, you guys were one of the first to implement scrubbers, you're very much behind that technology, implemented on 86 of your vessels. By letting those options expire, do we read that to believe that you have enough exposure to the scrubbers and maybe the returns start to diminish going forward?

好的。這就說得通了。對於我的後續行動，這可能看起來很小，但也許它也可以幫助我們塑造您對未來策略的想法。讓這些洗滌器選項到期，你們是第一批實施洗滌器的人之一，你們非常支持這項技術，在你們的 86 艘船上實施了這項技術。透過讓這些選擇權到期，我們是否會相信您對洗滌器有足夠的敞口，並且未來的回報可能會開始減少？

Do we read that to believe that you'd just rather have those 355 days in this type of spot market environment and think the returns from operating those ships are much better than any scrubber premium? Or maybe are those just older ships that you may look to monetize in the secondhand market as they don't fit the core fleet going forward?

我們讀到這篇文章是否會相信您寧願在這種現貨市場環境中度過這 355 天，並認為運營這些船舶的回報比任何脫硫塔溢價要好得多？或者也許這些只是舊船，您可能希望在二手市場上獲利，因為它們不適合未來的核心船隊？

It's a good question. Cameron, and we like to start.

這是一個好問題。卡梅倫，我們想開始。

Sure. Thanks, John. It's yes to all. So it's obviously a number of considerations that go into us not declaring those options and they had an expiration date. So it's not like we could further extend that optionality, but it's yes to all. The opportunity cost of installing scrubbers here is extremely high, the spreads have come down and are rather muted and are expected to stay that way. And obviously, we have a keen eye to the age of the fleet and the potential asset values here and potentially monetizing some more vessels through sale. So it really is yes to all your points.

當然。謝謝，約翰。對所有人來說都是肯定的。因此，顯然我們出於多種考慮才沒有宣布這些選項，而且它們有一個到期日。因此，我們不可能進一步擴展這種選擇，但對所有人來說都是肯定的。在這裡安裝洗滌器的機會成本非常高，價差已經下降並且相當平靜，並且預計將保持這種狀態。顯然，我們對船隊的年齡和這裡的潛在資產價值有著敏銳的洞察力，並有可能透過出售更多船隻來貨幣化。所以你所有的觀點都是肯定的。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Cam. Thanks, Robert.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，卡姆。謝謝，羅伯特。

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑弗里斯。

Thank you. Hey, guys. Good morning and good afternoon. Robert, just maybe just real quick, wanted to ask if you wouldn't mind just clarifying what you were just saying, I think to John about how your operating assumption is for the rest of the perhaps quarter or for the rest of the year? You're assuming basically in your day-to-day that the Suez Canal or the Red Sea situation resolves itself tomorrow. And in that assumption, you believe that for the rest of the quarter beyond what you've guided, but for the rest of the quarter, you think LR2 could earn $60,000 and the MRs could earn $35,000. Is that right? And that's above what you've earned thus far?

謝謝。大家好。早安，下午好。羅伯特，也許真的很快，想問你是否介意澄清一下你剛才所說的內容，我想向約翰詢問你在本季度剩餘時間或今年剩餘時間內的運營假設如何？在日常生活中，你基本上假設蘇伊士運河或紅海局勢明天就會自行解決。在這種假設下，您認為本季剩餘時間超出了您的指導，但在本季度剩餘時間，您認為 LR2 可以賺取 60,000 美元，MR 可以賺取 35,000 美元。是對的嗎？這超出了您迄今為止所賺取的收入嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

[We only have a third of the quarter left, so it's a 40%]. So that's why you waited it that way. And we know where the rates are rate now. And the rates right now are above those, significantly above those numbers for LR2. So that's how we -- it's not a perfect science, but that's where we come for -- come out.

[本季只剩下三分之一，所以是 40%]。所以這就是你這樣等待的原因。我們現在知道利率在哪裡。現在的利率高於這些數字，明顯高於 LR2 的數字。這就是我們的結果——這不是一門完美的科學，但這就是我們的目的。

Yeah. I guess I'm just looking at it from the perspective that as are above what you've guided thus far, which I guess the implication is that what you have booked thus far has seen a limited impact from the Red Sea?

是的。我想我只是從這樣的角度來看它，正如您迄今為止所指導的那樣，我想這意味著您迄今為止所預訂的內容受到紅海的影響有限？

Yes, the first three, four weeks, there was no impact at all. Now every day we would answer questions to other analysts or shareholders, which would say, oh well, we're reading that the closure of the Red Sea and Suez Canal would affect the product market by X. Why isn't that happening? We would answer because it takes a little time.

是的，前三、四個星期，一點影響都沒有。現在我們每天都會向其他分析師或股東回答問題​​，他們會說，哦，好吧，我們讀到紅海和蘇伊士運河的關閉將影響產品市場X。為什麼這種情況沒有發生？我們會回答，因為這需要一點時間。

Just because to you put an obstacle in the way of a group going to a bar and they have to take a longer route, it doesn't mean it changes the number of people standing of the bar waiting for drinks to begin with. So it took a little time. Let's say in the same sense, we are saying that if you stopped it -- if the Red Sea will open tomorrow, again it would take a little time. So what we're doing is saying what if we earn in the, let's say, the trailing four weeks. So what do we think we could earn at a minimum for the next four weeks, if you open the Red Sea tomorrow. That's more or less how that's calculated.

僅僅因為你在一群人去酒吧的路上設置了障礙，讓他們不得不走更長的路線，這並不意味著它會改變站在酒吧等待飲料的人數。所以花了一點時間。從同樣的意義上說，我們是說，如果你阻止它——如果紅海明天開放，同樣需要一點時間。所以我們正在做的是說如果我們在接下來的四個星期內賺錢會怎麼樣。那麼，如果明天開放紅海，我們認為在接下來的四個星期內我們至少能賺多少錢？或多或少就是這樣計算的。

Okay. Thanks, Robert. That makes sense. And I guess and then just a follow-up, just off of that, sticking with the Red Sea, we've been seeing the diversions accelerate here in recent weeks after a bit of a slower start. In terms of, say, Scorpio fleet deployment, I know James, you highlighted for the broader market how impactful the Red Sea is, but just in terms of, say, Scorpio, how active is that of a region for you -- for Scorpio itself? And then is that is that an area I guess currently that you're avoiding given all the risks?

好的。謝謝，羅伯特。這就說得通了。我想，接下來就是後續行動，緊接著紅海，我們看到起步較慢之後，最近幾週這裡的改道加速了。就天蠍座艦隊部署而言，我知道詹姆斯，你向更廣泛的市場強調了紅海的影響力有多大，但就天蠍座而言，一個地區對你來說有多活躍——對天蠍座來說本身？那麼考慮到所有的風險，我認為您目前正在避免這個領域嗎？

We do that back to front. So maybe the last question is more operational. So maybe, Cam, if you'd like to take that one.

我們從後到前都這樣做。所以也許最後一個問題更具操作性。所以，卡姆，如果你願意的話，也許可以。

Sure. Happy to. So we avoid having a rigid policy with regard to the Red Sea, but it goes without saying that the risks there today are unacceptable for our vessels, cargo, and particularly our personnel. So we are not fixing any vessels nor are we transiting the Southern Red Sea or the Western Gulf of Aden today, and that's been true for about a month now.

當然。高興。因此，我們避免對紅海採取嚴格的政策，但不言而喻，今天那裡的風險對於我們的船隻、貨物，特別是我們的人員來說是不可接受的。因此，我們今天不會修理任何船隻，也不會穿越南紅海或西亞丁灣，大約一個月都是如此。

That being said, two observations, we don't avoid the Northern or middle Red Sea because it's obviously a very active area for our vessels to trade with Saudi Arabia. And in addition, we cannot predict what conditions would change our posture those of the market with regards to resuming transits in the southern Red Sea, we just don't know. I don't think anybody knows.

話雖這麼說，有兩個觀察結果，我們不會避開紅海北部或中部，因為這顯然是我們船隻與沙烏地阿拉伯進行貿易的非常活躍的區域。此外，我們無法預測什麼條件會改變我們對恢復紅海南部過境的市場態度，我們只是不知道。我想沒有人知道。

So every day we wake up, we look at the best and latest information we have, and we expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. But there is no policy per se. It's just assessing risk as we go. And as of today, the answer is no, we're not transiting Southern Red Sea.

因此，我們每天醒來都會查看現有的最佳和最新信息，並且我們預計這種情況在可預見的未來將繼續下去。但本身並沒有政策。它只是在我們進行的過程中評估風險。截至今天，答案是否定的，我們不會經過南紅海。

Omar, then I go back to the first part of your question, I don't want people to get us wrong. We're very bullish through these markets, it's super strong. The cash flow is enormous. And the other thing that you have to put in context here is that, in the last couple of weeks, the markets have had a negative overhang on them as we go -- with regard to US Gulf refinery turnarounds and Chinese New Year.

奧馬爾，那麼我回到你問題的第一部分，我不想讓人們誤解我們。我們非常看好這些市場，它非常強勁。現金流是巨大的。在這裡你必須考慮的另一件事是，在過去的幾周里，市場對美國海灣煉油廠的周轉和中國新年產生了負面影響。

So if you'd talk to our trading desk, if the conditions remain, they would expect the rates would start to firm up -- start firming next week. We have some very unusual situations going on. This is not like a light switch.

因此，如果你與我們的交易櫃檯交談，如果情況仍然存在，他們會預期利率將開始堅挺——下週開始堅挺。我們正在發生一些非常不尋常的情況。這不像電燈開關。

The other day when there was some tweet saying, there could be peace in between Palestine -- Hamas and Israel. And we saw the stock sort of trend down to 10% down. It was like what on earth are they doing. What on earth are these people are doing out there because the market will not react like a light switch. It will take time. The fleet itself is all over the place. We have really big changes. We're even bookings some second quarter revenue, right now?

前幾天有一則推文說，巴勒斯坦、哈馬斯和以色列之間可能會實現和平。我們看到該股的趨勢下降至 10%。就像他們到底在做什麼一樣。這些人到底在做什麼，因為市場不會像電燈開關那樣反應。需要花時間。艦隊本身到處都是。我們確實發生了很大的變化。我們甚至現在就預訂了一些第二季的收入？

We've had two MRs that we fixed for and we're not going to be any different. This is not specials of Scorpio Tankers. I'm very sure that all of the leading product tanker companies will have the same type of profile in the fixing. And now as fixed product tankers from the US-Gulf all the way to Japan. That is an awful long voyage.

我們已經修復了兩個 MR，我們不會有任何不同。這不是天蠍油輪的特價。我非常確定所有領先的產品油輪公司都將在固定中具有相同類型的配置。現在作為固定產品油輪從美國海灣一直到日本。這是一次可怕的長途航行。

We've fixed product tankers from Singapore to Argentina; from China to Anchorage. We have fixed product tankers just earlier this week, and this is mind-blowing, from Singapore to New York. Those vessels are buried for a long time for all intents and purposes, for the balance of this quarter, those vessels manage will be scrapped. They're not going to be on any position for the rest of this quarter.

我們已經修復了從新加坡到阿根廷的成品油輪；從中國到安克拉治。本週早些時候，我們修復了從新加坡到紐約的成品油輪，這令人興奮。這些船隻出於各種意圖和目的被埋了很長時間，在本季度的剩餘時間裡，這些船隻將被報廢。在本季度剩餘時間內，他們不會擔任任何職位。

So that -- so the position I'm taking, the assumption on taking is going to be closed tomorrow, but if it's not closed tomorrow and next week, I mean open tomorrow. It shows and Red Sea is still shut for transiting to the product market next week, and refinery turnarounds go away, and Chinese New Year is finished, you should expect on balance that the markets trade up even from where they are now.

所以，我所持有的頭寸，假設明天將會平倉，但如果明天和下週沒有平倉，我的意思是明天開倉。它表明，紅海下週仍處於關閉狀態，無法轉移到產品市場，煉油廠的周轉結束，農曆新年已經結束，總的來說，您應該預期市場交易甚至會比現在的水平有所上漲。

So this is certainly not a -- we're not trying to be negative here. We're trying to show how strong this market is under almost any of the circumstances because of the fundamentals underneath. And we're trying to show that we will finish our mission to deleverage the balance sheet and play from enormous strength from that point.

所以這當然不是——我們不想在這裡消極。我們試圖展示這個市場在幾乎任何情況下都因其基本面而有多強大。我們試圖表明，我們將完成去槓桿化資產負債表的使命，並從那時起發揮巨大的力量。

Thanks, Robert. That's a great place to be. That's it for me. Thanks, Robert. I'll turn it over. And Thanks, Cam.

謝謝，羅伯特。那真是個好地方。對我來說就是這樣。謝謝，羅伯特。我會把它翻過來。謝謝，卡姆。

Greg Lewis, BTIG.

格雷格·劉易斯，BTIG。

Yes, thank you and good morning and afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess you kind of started alluding to it, Robert, in terms of some of the longer voyages. Obviously, this is an exciting, interesting disruptive time for rates where they are. What is kind of been the appetite or is there any appetite from some customers looking to maybe go longer, i.e., what's kind of the opportunities in maybe the time charter market -- maybe not six months, but like maybe longer term? What -- any kind of depth in the two plus year charter market or anything like that?

是的，謝謝大家，大家早安、下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。羅伯特，我想你是在一些長途航行中開始提到這一點的。顯然，對於目前的利率來說，這是一個令人興奮、有趣的顛覆性時刻。興趣是什麼？或者一些客戶是否有興趣尋求更長的時間，即期租市場上有什麼樣的機會——也許不是六個月，但可能是更長期的？什麼——兩年多的包機市場有什麼深度或類似的東西？

I think that the depth in the market, the charterers out there wanting to do things because [therefore] yesterday's rates, of course. And even at two years, the present front-end, you'd have to discount your rate so much. And that's simply because we haven't had this positions are very long and they themselves don't know what's going to happen out there.

我認為，市場的深度，承租人想要做一些事情，因為[因此]昨天的費率，當然。即使在兩年內，目前的前端，你也必須大幅折扣你的價格。這只是因為我們的部位還沒有很長，他們自己也不知道會發生什麼事。

So you have a situation where now the charterer wants to get on yesterday's market and the owner says, well, I need some recognition for where the market is right now because there's no point in me fixing a spot ship. But if you could fix it $70,000, $80,000 a day for an hour or two for 2, 2.5 months. It's going to be a little bit tough to fix the way at a $30,000, $40,000 discount straight out of the gum for two years charter, unless that's [reflected] properly in rate charter rate from where it was before.

所以你會遇到這樣一種情況，現在租船人想要進入昨天的市場，而船東說，好吧，我需要對現在的市場狀況有所了解，因為我修復現貨船是沒有意義的。但如果你能修復它，每天花費 70,000 美元、80,000 美元，修復一兩個小時，持續 2、2.5 個月。直接從兩年租約中直接獲得 30,000 美元、40,000 美元的折扣來解決這個問題將會有點困難，除非這在之前的租船費率中得到了適當的[反映]。

I think though liquidity is ironically a lot -- ironically, the S&P market is different. The S&P market is prices have gone up, prices are reflecting that. And the S&P market itself is reasonably liquid.

我認為，儘管諷刺的是，流動性很大——但諷刺的是，標準普爾市場是不同的。標準普爾市場價格上漲，價格反映了這一點。標準普爾市場本身俱有相當的流動性。

Okay. Super helpful. And I know we've been talking a lot about the Suez Canal here. Could you talk a little bit maybe Cam, or James, what you guys are seeing kind of in the Panama Canal and it seems like water still low there, and it seems like that could be more of maybe a longer term issue that could be impacting rates in the Atlantic.

好的。超有幫助。我知道我們在這裡談論了很多關於蘇伊士運河的事情。您能否談談卡姆或詹姆斯，您在巴拿馬運河中看到的情況，那裡的水位似乎仍然很低，這似乎可能是一個可能會影響的長期問題大西洋的費率。

Cam, would you like to take this?

卡姆，你願意接受這個嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Greg. It absolutely is affecting rate structures in the Atlantic. Our analysis of the situation is it's exacerbated by El Nino. The Panamanian are trying to redirect water into the lake. The earliest we can see any improvement is later in the second quarter, but that is an educated guess and not something that we can plan on or forecast with any certainty. So we just don't know what it would take for -- between the rainfall and the redirection of other water into the lake to allow the Panamanian to increase transit. But that's our best guess.

當然。謝謝，格雷格。它絕對正在影響大西洋的利率結構。我們對情況的分析是厄爾尼諾現象加劇了這種情況。巴拿馬人正試圖將水引入湖中。我們最早可以看到任何改善是在第二季晚些時候，但這是一個有根據的猜測，而不是我們可以確定的計劃或預測。所以我們只是不知道需要什麼——在降雨和將其他水重新引入湖中之間，以允許巴拿馬人增加運輸。但這是我們最好的猜測。

Great. Thank you for the comment.

偉大的。感謝您的評論。

[Sam Bland], JP Morgan.

[山姆布蘭德]，摩根大通。

Hi thanks for taking my question. I'm Sam Bland. The first question is, I guess on this -- on the Red Sea disruption seem your very big reaction in -- at LR2 rates, but less of one in MRs. Is that what you'd expect to see given the trading patterns of each or could be miles go up in the coming weeks? And I guess let's maybe take that one and then I'll ask second one after that.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。我是山姆·布蘭德。第一個問題是，我想在這方面——對紅海的破壞似乎你的反應非常大——在 LR2 速率下，但在 MR 速率上反應較小。鑑於每個人的交易模式，這是您所期望看到的嗎？或者未來幾週內里程可能會增加？我想我們可以先問第一個，然後我會問第二個。

Yeah, I think it happened exactly as we would expect. First of all there are less LR2 then this thing. When it first strikes, everybody wants to go to that vessel that carries the maximum cargo. And then what happens after that, it starts getting absorbed around. And we've seen the MR market actually move up now in the last couple of weeks, and that's moved up against the US-Gulf refinery situation, plus the preparation for Chinese New Year. So that's like a very bullish sign. And you're starting to see cargoes getting split.

是的，我認為事情的發生完全符合我們的預期。首先LR2比這個東西少。當它第一次來襲時，每個人都想去那艘運載最多貨物的船上。然後發生了什麼，它開始被周圍吸收。我們已經看到，在過去的幾周里，MR 市場實際上在上漲，而且這是針對美國海灣煉油廠的情況以及農曆新年的準備而上漲的。所以這就像一個非常樂觀的訊號。你開始看到貨物被分開。

So in the same ways, it took a little time for the LR2s to actually move. It takes a little time for the space to be filled for one to another way between the MRs and the LR2s.

因此，以相同的方式，LR2 需要一點時間才能真正移動。MR 和 LR2 之間的雙向路徑需要一點時間來填滿空間。

Okay, understood. And the second question is on the net fleet growth graph on slide 13. I just saw in the footnote, there is some assumption of 30% slippage across 2024 to 2027, which I guess we're expecting those years to be good years. I can sort of see why you might get slippage in bad periods, but why would we expect 30% slippage in what, hopefully, is going to be a strong market? Thank you,

好的，明白了。第二個問題是投影片 13 上的淨機隊成長圖。我剛剛在腳註中看到，假設 2024 年至 2027 年會出現 30% 的下滑，我想我們預計這些年會是好年景。我可以理解為什麼在糟糕的時期可能會出現滑點，但為什麼我們會期望在一個強勁的市場中出現 30% 的滑點呢？謝謝你，

Sam, well you always get slippage at the end of the year on certain vessels, but there's a lot of vessels in the order book that don't have firm delivery dates. So there were a lot of vessels ordered, maybe promising a Q4 delivery date '25 or a Q2 or something like that in the later years. And we just don't have the specifics on. So it's our best estimate of when these vessels are delivered.

山姆，某些船舶在年底總是會出現延誤，但訂單簿中有很多船舶沒有確定的交貨日期。因此訂購了許多船隻，可能承諾在 25 年第四季度交付，或在以後的幾年中交付第二季或類似的日期。我們只是沒有具體細節。因此，這是我們對這些船隻何時交付的最佳估計。

Okay, understood. Thank you.

好的，明白了。謝謝。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Hey great. Good morning. Robert or team, can you talk about kind of breakeven levels now, right? So you've gone down to [$16,000 a day from $17,000] last quarter. I guess, where do you see that trending? You've talked before about kind of getting that a little bit lower. Maybe just talk about where do you think it is now?

嘿，太棒了。早安.羅伯特或團隊，您現在能談談損益平衡程度嗎？因此，上個季度您的每日費用已從 17,000 美元降至 16,000 美元。我想，你在哪裡看到這種趨勢？您之前曾談到將其降低一點。也許只是談談你認為現在在哪裡？

I think we're happy to give the [$16,000] and we'll not talk about where we want to go. I think we'll just -- we'll say that we are focused on reducing our breakeven level and to the extent that you are paying down debt and reducing your amortization, debt amortization, and interest cost and that should happen. The exact -- I think it's better that we just say when they are rather than, say where are they going to.

我認為我們很樂意提供 [16,000 美元]，我們不會談論我們想去哪裡。我認為我們會說，我們的重點是降低盈虧平衡水平，並在一定程度上償還債務並減少攤銷、債務攤銷和利息成本，這應該發生。確切地說，我認為我們最好只說他們什麼時候在，而不是說他們要去哪裡。

Okay. And just a lot of this Red Sea discussion. Maybe talk a bit about I guess is the impact to rates now -- is it still somewhat isolated on certain lanes, is it just rates globally have adjusted? I just understand the process on kind of timing and how well spread out the rate adjustment is now?

好的。還有很多關於紅海的討論。也許談談我想現在對費率的影響——在某些通道上是否仍然有些孤立，是否只是全球費率進行了調整？我只是了解時間安排的流程以及現在利率調整的分佈如何？

All rates are up. It's -- that's what's so strong that the depth and breadth is across the product space is very strong.

所有費率都漲了。它是如此強大，以至於整個產品空間的深度和廣度都非常強大。

Okay. And then Rob --

好的。然後羅布--

It is many, many, many, many different routes. I mean, I've described some really crazy routes, the MRs. But inside of that, obviously the Asian market has been stronger on the MRs and the US-Gulf is, let's say, being the one that's not so strong, even though it's still very strong. But that's because of the refinery turnarounds in Asia, even though it's going through Chinese New Year, it's being assisted because kind of just being drawn to Europe because of Europe situation.

有很多很多不同的路線。我的意思是，我已經描述了一些非常瘋狂的路線，先生們。但除此之外，顯然亞洲市場在 MR 上表現更為強勁，而美國-海灣市場則不是那麼強勁，儘管它仍然非常強勁。但這是因為亞洲煉油廠的扭虧為盈，儘管正在經歷農曆新年，但它還是受到了幫助，因為歐洲的情況只是被吸引到了歐洲。

And frankly, I think we're getting a little help from US finally being tough on the sanctions Russian oil and Russian trading ships. I think that's good, too.

坦白說，我認為我們從美國得到了一點幫助，最終對俄羅斯石油和俄羅斯商船實施了強硬制裁。我認為這也很好。

I guess, Robert, if we thought forward and you were talking about the Red Sea reopening kind of in your base model, right, in terms of assumption on pricing? What happens in terms of if Russia and Ukraine, at some point, the war will end and you'll get -- what happens to those vessels, how quickly do they get reabsorbed into the market. Just want to understand timing [because I understand they hadn't] --

我想，羅伯特，如果我們向前思考，你在你的基本模型中談論紅海重新開放，對吧，就定價假設而言？如果俄羅斯和烏克蘭的戰爭在某個時候結束，你會得到什麼——這些船隻會發生什麼，它們重新被市場吸收的速度有多快。只是想了解時間[因為我知道他們沒有]——

Yeah, of course. But I mean, if you're looking for excuses to maintain your hold because you're now worried about Russia, I doubt whether Russia, Panama, Middle East will get solved together very shortly. And there is Russia, we can be slightly more certain on because it's a phenomena that should have been embedded. That position just doesn't seem to be getting any easier. As I said, the US is getting tougher related to the sanctions. Putin is showing no interest in slowing down and the Ukraine at the moment is showing no interest in giving up.

嗯，當然咯。但我的意思是，如果你因為現在擔心俄羅斯而尋找藉口來維持自己的立場，我懷疑俄羅斯、巴拿馬、中東是否會很快得到解決。還有俄羅斯，我們可以稍微確定一點，因為這是一個應該被嵌入的現象。這個位置似乎並沒有變得更容易。正如我所說，美國的製裁措施越來越強硬。普丁沒有表現出放慢腳步的興趣，烏克蘭目前也沒有表現出放棄的興趣。

So we also still have to accept the longer we go through the curve the time here, more the anyway, a Russian are going back. I don't see how you go back to how it was before anyway. And even if you go back a little bit, I don't think it starts to affecting so much because you've got this aging of the fleet coming through and then you've got the growth in other trades and the product market that have taken over. And I just cannot imagine that you're going to go back to, oh, yes, that's great. Thanks, Russia. We'll -- Europe will just take everything again.

因此，我們仍然必須接受我們在這裡經歷的時間越長，無論如何，俄羅斯人就會回去。無論如何，我不明白你如何回到以前的樣子。即使你回顧一下，我認為它不會開始產生太大影響，因為你已經經歷了船隊的老化，然後你就看到了其他行業和產品市場的成長被佔領了。我只是無法想像你會回到，哦，是的，那太好了。謝謝，俄羅斯。我們將－歐洲將再次奪走一切。

So just help me understand the last part of your kind of argument, right, as if you are assuming a base case or return in your rate assumption. At elevated rates, tell me again why you would not want to start locking in any charter-out contracts? Is it they just don't adjust to where the market is in any relationship?

因此，請幫助我理解您的論點的最後部分，就好像您在利率假設中假設基本情況或回報一樣。在較高的費率下，請再次告訴我為什麼您不想開始鎖定任何租船合約？難道他們只是沒有適應市場的關係嗎？

You're assuming -- I'm only talk about elevated rates related to the Middle East. I don't think that the market is that elevated any longer and it never was related to the Russian thing. I think that was sort of a little bit overextended.

你假設——我只是談論與中東相關的高利率。我認為市場不再那麼高漲，而且它從來都與俄羅斯的事情無關。我認為這有點過度了。

Yeah.

是的。

And the reason is this is because the rates are very, very high right now. The charter is sitting there saying -- so these are not the rate, but let's say before it's happened, their ship would be at $20,000 a day charter, for example. And right now, that vessel could earn, let's say, $30,000, $35,000, $40,000 a day because of the elevated rate. The charterer hasn't really moved. Now the calculation would be for a two year charter, the owner would want to have more rather than give the ship away at the front in such a big discount.

原因是現在的利率非常非常高。租船合約上寫著——所以這些不是費率，但假設在租船之前，他們的船的租船價格是每天 20,000 美元。現在，由於費率上漲，該船每天可以賺取 30,000 美元、35,000 美元、40,000 美元。租船人還沒有真正動過。現在的計算是為期兩年的租船合同，船東希望擁有更多，而不是在前面以如此大的折扣將船賣掉。

But the charter isn't yet ready to pay that rate because the charterer does not have the certainty with all the different changes in the new announcements every 10 minutes of whether those very high rates will continue for a long time, the same as nobody does. So therefore, it's almost like no trade -- in, let's say, stock market language, the bid offer is just too wide right now.

但租船公司還沒有準備好支付這個費率，因為每 10 分鐘新公告中的所有不同變化，租船人都無法確定這些非常高的費率是否會持續很長時間，就像沒有人一樣。 。因此，這幾乎就像沒有交易一樣——用股票市場的語言來說，現在的出價太寬了。

Yeah.

是的。

But that will settle down at some point over the next three, four weeks I would expect.

但我預計，這種情況將在未來三、四週的某個時候穩定下來。

Helpful. [Thanks for your thoughts], Robert. Appreciate it.

有幫助。 [感謝您的想法]，羅伯特。欣賞它。

No problem.

沒問題。

Frode Morkedal, Clarksons Securities.

弗羅德‧莫基達爾 (Frode Morkedal)，克拉克森證券公司。

Thank you. Hi guys congrats on a strong quarter and even better first quarter. I guess coming back to the Red Sea, you talked a lot about it, but I appreciate the $60,000 figure if it opens up tomorrow, but I'm curious to hear your upside case. Should this continue?

謝謝。大家好，恭喜本季表現強勁，第一季甚至更好。我想回到紅海，你談論了很多，但如果明天開盤，我很欣賞 60,000 美元的數字，但我很想聽聽你的上行案例。這種情況應該繼續下去嗎？

I guess we haven't seen all ships that worked. So do you have any idea what the potential impact could be, how high rates could go, should this last?

我想我們還沒有看到所有能正常工作的船隻。那麼您是否知道潛在的影響可能是什麼？利率可能會達到多高，這種情況應該持續下去嗎？

Well, I know this guy in Norway who is an analyst, his company called Clarkson. This Norwegian guy name is Frode. And he said very early in the peak, at the end of last year that we could see LR2 rates over $100,000 a day in certain fixtures and that person has been right, Frode.

嗯，我認識挪威的一個分析師，他的公司叫克拉克森。這個挪威人的名字叫做弗羅德。他在高峰期很早就說過，在去年年底，我們可以看到某些賽事的 LR2 價格每天超過 10 萬美元，這個人是對的，Frode。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I think we'll we've done quite well following your guidance, right. So I don't think we're going to comment on any upside. Upside can take care of itself.

所以我認為按照您的指導我們會做得很好，對吧。所以我認為我們不會對任何好處發表評論。上行空間可自行解決。

Fair enough. Good. I guess you mentioned that --

很公平。好的。我猜你有提到過--

But congratulations on your call, Frode.

但恭喜你接到電話，弗羅德。

Thanks. Thank you. My final question is just on the new trade names you mentioned. We all observe this standard route. So but curious to hear and if you -- what type of new routes do you see on the LR2s, for example, which are emerging?

謝謝。謝謝。我的最後一個問題是關於你提到的新商品名稱。我們都遵守這條標準路線。所以，但很想知道，例如，您在 LR2 上看到什麼類型的新路線，例如正在出現的路線？

We're seeing some very -- we are up to the slightly more in order. We've just seen some weird things that are very, very cool. As you've seen, for example, vessels that are discharging in Europe from -- sorry, I've one ship, for example, it's gone from the AG, loaded in the AG, gone around the Cape, going to Europe and it's about to -- it's discharging Hamburg. It's been a reload in Amsterdam and then come all the way back around the Cape, and discharge in East Africa, six days away from loading in the AG. That is really kind of well, okay.

我們看到一些非常--我們正在準備稍微有序一些。我們剛剛看到了一些非常非常酷的奇怪的事情。例如，正如您所看到的，在歐洲卸貨的船隻——對不起，我有一艘船，例如，它從 AG 出發，在 AG 中裝載，繞過好望角，前往歐洲，它是即將——漢堡正在卸貨。它在阿姆斯特丹重新裝載，然後繞著海角一路返回，在東非卸貨，距離 AG 裝載還有六天。這真的很好，好吧。

And then you are seeing routes that are related [out in], Asia, too, where you're able to bring vessels back towards the AG of voyages to Australia and things that are out of the indexes, that are very lucrative voyages.

然後你會看到與亞洲相關的航線，在那裡你可以將船隻帶回澳洲航次的AG，以及索引之外的東西，這是非常有利可圖的航次。

Perhaps, that's very interesting. Great. Thank you, guys.

也許，這很有趣。偉大的。感謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Liam Burke, B. Riley FBR.

利亞姆·伯克 (Liam Burke)，B. 萊利 (B. Riley) FBR。

Yeah, thank you. Your dividend payout has been steadily increasing from quarter to quarter. How much of that is that part of your capital allocation strategy as your debt levels start coming down? And how are you going to balance that between your buybacks where you have sort of a stated target as a percent of NAV?

是的，謝謝。您的股息支付每個季度都在穩步增加。當你的債務水準開始下降時，你的資本配置策略中有多少是這一部分？如果您設定了佔資產淨值百分比的既定目標，那麼您將如何平衡回購之間的關係？

We're simply not going to comment to a capital allocation strategy until we achieve our goal. And to meet the permutations of what you would do just between stock buybacks and dividends. So right now, the -- we do -- we always believed in a regular dividend. And I think that the dividend increases is like an [knot] to or recognition of the really improved underlying strength of the company. And I wouldn't say it is anything other than that. We've just being regularly increasing that dividend all through last year. And we're just adding it again to it now.

在實現我們的目標之前，我們不會對資本配置策略發表評論。並滿足股票回購和股利之間的排列組合。所以現在，我們始終相信定期股利。我認為股利的增加就像是對公司潛在實力真正改善的一個結或認可。除此之外我不會說它是什麼。去年我們一直在定期增加股息。我們現在只是將其再次添加到其中。

Okay, thank you. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about the Red Sea. How much has India, has it stepped up as a both a importer and exporter -- import of crude and exporter of product tankers been to your advantage and how do you see that shaking out over time?

好的謝謝。顯然，關於紅海的討論很多。印度作為進口國和出口國（原油進口國和成品油輪出口國）在多大程度上對您有利？隨著時間的推移，您如何看待這種優勢？

Robert, you want me to take this?

羅伯特，你想讓我拿這個嗎？

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

Liam, great question. Well, I think the answer is it's had a positive impact. We often focus just on the Middle East and depending on the region, sometimes people will include India in that, but they have added very advanced refining capacity. Jamnagar is probably the most advanced refinery in the world, one of the most complex refineries in the world and they export around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of products, and they're planning to add a fair bit of capacity. So similar to the impact of the Middle East, which has expanded ton-miles, we have seen a similar impact in India and it's probably the next growth region.

利亞姆，好問題。嗯，我認為答案是它產生了積極的影響。我們經常只關注中東，根據地區的不同，有時人們會將印度包括在內，但他們增加了非常先進的煉油能力。賈姆訥格爾可能是世界上最先進的煉油廠，也是世界上最複雜的煉油廠之一，他們每天出口約 100 萬至 150 萬桶產品，並且他們計劃增加相當多的產能。與中東擴大噸英里的影響類似，我們在印度也看到了類似的影響，它可能是下一個成長地區。

Great. Thank you, Robert. Thank you, James.

偉大的。謝謝你，羅伯特。謝謝你，詹姆斯。

Thanks, Liam.

謝謝，利亞姆。

Chris Robertson, Deutsche Bank.

克里斯·羅伯遜，德意志銀行。

Hi. Yes, good morning. This has Ben Mohr calling on for Chris Robertson here at Deutsche Bank. Thanks for taking our questions. You've outlined very strong fundamentals of the market and given the latest restrictions in the Red Sea, it's put upward pressure on tanker rates. We wanted to ask go, what are your thoughts, especially on prioritizing maybe a special dividend over share repurchases CapEx or debt paydown?

你好。是的，早安。本·莫爾（Ben Mohr）為此呼籲德意志銀行的克里斯·羅伯遜（Chris Robertson）。感謝您回答我們的問題。您概述了非常強勁的市場基本面，並考慮到紅海的最新限制，這給油輪運價帶來了上行壓力。我們想問你，你有什麼想法，特別是優先考慮特別股息而不是股票回購、資本支出或債務償還？

I'm really sorry, Chris, I missed the question.

我真的很抱歉，克里斯，我錯過了這個問題。

I'm sorry. We wanted to ask you've outlined very strong fundamentals in the market. And yes, given the latest disruptions in the Red Sea, that's put upward pressure on tanker rates, we wanted to ask, especially how you might be thinking about prioritizing a special dividend over other things like share repurchases, CapEx, and debt paydown?

對不起。我們想請您概述市場非常強勁的基本面。是的，考慮到紅海最近發生的混亂，這給油輪運價帶來了上行壓力，我們想問，特別是您如何考慮將特別股息優先於股票回購、資本支出和債務償還等其他事項？

Yeah, we'll restate this until we get to -- till we get to where we want to -- we finish the mission of paying down debt, then we're really not going to really think about it ourselves. Now we have to see what the set of opportunity are. And secondly, we're never going to telegraph it. It's not possible way. I would say to everybody, there is no way that we are going to come out and say, oh, we're going to buy back this much stock or we're going to pay out -- intent to pay out this much extraordinary dividend, or we intend to raise the regular dividend to X.

是的，我們會重申這一點，直到我們完成償還債務的使命，然後我們自己就不會真正考慮這個問題。現在我們必須看看機會是什麼。其次，我們永遠不會用電報通知它。這是不可能的辦法。我想對所有人說，我們不可能出來說，哦，我們要回購這麼多股票，或者我們要支付——打算支付這麼多非凡的股息，或者我們打算將定期股息提高到 X。

We're first going to act on whatever we've done. We've already got the stock buyback in place. So we're not going to wake up one day and say, hey, guys, we're happy now, this is going to be -- this is what we're going to do.

我們首先要對我們所做的一切採取行動。我們已經進行了股票回購。所以我們不會有一天醒來來說，嘿，夥計們，我們現在很高興，這將是——這就是我們要做的。

Thanks. And maybe as a follow-up, can you please discuss just your thoughts looking forward, whether we've reached peak disruption in terms of product tankers and how it might play out throughout the year, just at least from what you're seeing and hearing?

謝謝。也許作為後續行動，您能否討論一下您對未來的想法，我們是否已經在成品油輪方面達到了顛覆的頂峰，以及它在全年中的表現，至少從您所看到的和聽力？

I think that's a wonderful, wonderful question. When we think through two years ago or three years ago, we wake up one morning and late February and see absolutely no cars on the road and no planes in the sky, and then we are sitting in a situation now where we've got a long-term war between Ukraine and Russia, the Panama Canal transits inhibited, Red Sea transit inhibited. And some argue that the Palestine-Israel situation -- whole Middle East situation is getting worse, not better.

我認為這是一個非常棒的問題。當我們回想兩年前或三年前時，我們二月底的一天早上醒來，看到路上絕對沒有汽車，天空中也沒有飛機，然後我們現在就處於這樣一種情況：烏克蘭與俄羅斯長期交戰，巴拿馬運河過境受阻，紅海過境受阻。有些人認為，巴以局勢——整個中東局勢正在變得更糟，而不是更好。

And no one talks about the risk of it spilling over into other areas. So I think it's impossible to say we've reached the peak of the disruption because we're now way beyond three standard deviation, the disruption anyway right now. So it's not -- Wall Street Bank and all these news things is there's a complacency in the whole oil space as we look at price.

沒有人談論它蔓延到其他領域的風險。所以我認為不可能說我們已經達到了顛覆的頂峰，因為我們現在已經遠遠超出了三個標準差，無論如何現在都是顛覆。所以事實並非如此——華爾街銀行和所有這些新聞都表明，當我們審視價格時，整個石油領域都存在著一種自滿情緒。

And it's like a Wall Street is really wishing -- hoping all the time on every announcement that's relatively dullish, but the facts are if we go back since October 7, virtually on a biweekly basis, the situation has got worse, not better. It's hard for me to say, yeah, we've reached the peak of dislocation. We don't know --

這就像華爾街真的在希望——一直希望每一個相對平淡的公告，但事實是，如果我們回顧自10 月7 日以來，幾乎每兩週一次，情況會變得更糟，而不是更好。我很難說，是的，我們已經達到了混亂的頂峰。我們不知道--

Wonderful. Thank you for your --.

精彩的。謝謝你的--.

Great. Thanks for your insights.

偉大的。感謝您的見解。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to James Doyle for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議轉回詹姆斯·多伊爾發表閉幕詞。

Thank you all for listening. Hope you all have a great day.

感謝大家的聆聽。希望大家有個愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。