Scorpio Tankers Inc (STNG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions) Hello and welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Inc. first-quarter 2025 conference call. I would now like to turn the call over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

（操作員指示）您好，歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers Inc. 2025 年第一季電話會議。現在我想將電話轉給企業發展和投資者關係主管詹姆斯·道爾 (James Doyle)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers’ first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Emanuele Lauro, Chief Executive Officer; Robert Bugbee, President; Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating Officer; Chris Avella, Chief Financial Officer; Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer. Earlier today we issued our first-quarter earnings press release, which is available on our website scorpiotankers.com.

感謝您今天加入我們。歡迎參加 Scorpio Tankers 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的是執行長 Emanuele Lauro；總裁 Robert Bugbee；卡梅倫·麥基 (Cameron Mackey)，首席營運長；首席財務長 Chris Avella；拉爾斯·登克爾·尼爾森，首席商務官。今天早些時候，我們發布了第一季收益新聞稿，可在我們的網站 scorpiotankers.com 上查閱。

The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, May 1, 2025, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release as well as Scorpio Tankers’ SEC filings, which are available at scorpiotankers.com and sec.gov.

本次電話會議討論的資訊是基於截至 2025 年 5 月 1 日的信息，可能包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類聲明中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，您應該查看收益新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明披露以及 Scorpio Tankers 的 SEC 文件，這些文件可在 scorpiotankers.com 和 sec.gov 上查閱。

Call participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the internet and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website for approximately 14 days.

請通話參與者註意，本次電話會議的音訊正在網路上直播，並且也會錄製以供播放。網路廣播的存檔將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供約 14 天。

We will be giving a short presentation today. The presentation is available at scorpiotankers.com on the Investor Relations page under Reports and Presentations. The slides will also be available on the webcast. After the presentation, we will go to Q&A. For those asking questions, please limit the number of questions to two. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue.

今天我們將做一個簡短的演講。您可在 scorpiotankers.com 的「投資者關係」頁面的「報告和簡報」下找到該簡報。幻燈片也將在網路廣播中提供。演講結束後，我們將進入問答環節。對於提問者，請將問題數量限制為兩個。如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入佇列。

Now, I’d like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, Emanuele Lauro.

現在，我想介紹我們的執行長 Emanuele Lauro。

Thank you, James, and good morning and good afternoon to all. Thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report another quarter of strong financial results. In the first quarter, the company generated $123 million in adjusted EBITDA and $49 million in adjusted net income.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早安，下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告本季又取得強勁的財務表現。第一季度，該公司調整後EBITDA為1.23億美元，調整後淨收入為4,900萬美元。

More so now than ever, we find ourselves reporting results within an environment marked by both strong product earnings and persistent global uncertainty. On one hand, structural changes such as refinery closures are increasing demand for seaborne transportation of refined products. On the other, policy shifts, tariffs, and geopolitical developments continue to cloud visibility.

現在，我們比以往任何時候都更發現自己在強勁的產品收益和持續的全球不確定性的環境中報告業績。一方面，煉油廠關閉等結構性變化增加了成品油海運的需求。另一方面，政策變化、關稅和地緣政治發展繼續影響市場前景。

In markets like this, we don’t get the luxury of clarity, and we operate with ambiguity and must prepare accordingly. And that is exactly what we’ve done. The company is financially, operationally, and commercially stronger than it was last quarter. We have materially strengthened our balance sheet, reducing debt by $2.2 billion since 2022, expanding our revolving credit capacity and locking in low-cost capital and lowering our daily cash breakevens to $12,500 per day.

在這樣的市場中，我們無法享受清晰的市場訊息，只能在模糊的環境中運營，因此必須做好相應的準備。這正是我們所做的。該公司的財務狀況、營運狀況和商業狀況均比上一季更加強勁。我們大幅增強了資產負債表，自 2022 年以來減少了 22 億美元的債務，擴大了循環信貸能力，鎖定了低成本資本，並將每日現金損益平衡點降低至每天 12,500 美元。

Our liquidity now stands at close to $1.4 billion, comprising of nearly $400 million in cash, $838 million in undrawn revolving capacity and our investment in DHT. Operationally, we completed the special surveys for drydocking of 10 vessels this quarter and 63 vessels over the last six quarters. These upgrades will enhance and have enhanced vessel efficiencies, eliminating the need for repositioning voyages solely for drydocking purposes that have historically impacted earnings.

我們的流動資金目前接近 14 億美元，包括近 4 億美元現金、8.38 億美元未提取循環信貸額度以及我們對 DHT 的投資。在營運方面，本季我們完成了 10 艘船舶的乾船塢特別檢驗，過去六個季度完成了 63 艘船舶的乾船塢特別檢驗。這些升級將增強並已經提高了船舶效率，從而無需僅為了乾船塢目的而重新安排航程，而這種做法在歷史上會影響收益。

Commercially, we added one new vessel on time charter and had three LR2 charters extended for one additional year. Recently, we’ve taken a more -- an even more conservative approach to capital allocation, not because of our view on the product tanker market, which remains constructive, but due to the broader global uncertainty that continues to persist.

在商業方面，我們按期增加了一艘新船，並將三艘 LR2 租船合約延長了一年。最近，我們採取了更加——甚至更加保守的資本配置方式，這並不是因為我們對成品油輪市場的看法仍然積極，而是因為全球範圍內的不確定性仍然存在。

Our outlook for both crude and oil refined products remains positive. Product anchor rates have begun the second quarter of 2025 at higher levels than those seen in the first quarter. With our balance sheets fortified, our fleet upgraded and market fundamentals still in our favor, we are well equipped to navigate uncertainty and continue creating long-term value for our shareholders.

我們對原油和煉油產品的前景依然樂觀。2025 年第二季的產品錨定率已高於第一季的水準。由於我們的資產負債表得到加強、我們的船隊升級並且市場基本面仍然對我們有利，我們有能力應對不確定性並繼續為股東創造長期價值。

My opening remarks are concluded, and I would like to turn the call to James Doyle, please. James?

我的開場白已經結束，現在請詹姆斯道爾發言。詹姆斯？

Thanks, E. Chris, would you like to proceed?

謝謝，E. Chris，您想繼續嗎？

Sure. Thanks, James. Thank you, Emanuele. Good morning or good afternoon, everyone. As Emanuele emphasized, we are surrounded by uncertainty. This is why our focus has been on what we can control rather than what is outside of our control. In this regard, our strategic priority has been and continues to be the strengthening of our balance sheet.

當然。謝謝，詹姆斯。謝謝你，伊曼紐。大家早安或下午好。正如埃馬努埃萊所強調的，我們周圍充滿了不確定性。這就是為什麼我們關注的是我們可以控制的事情，而不是我們無法控制的事情。在這方面，我們的策略重點一直是並將繼續是加強我們的資產負債表。

Slide 5, please. This quarter we generated $123.7 million in adjusted EBITDA and $49 million, or $1.03 per diluted share in adjusted net income. We’ve secured additional time charter coverage with the one year extensions on the charters for three LR2 tankers at $31,000 per day, along with a new two-year time charter on one of our Handymax tankers at $24,000 per day.

請看投影片 5。本季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.237 億美元，調整後淨收入為 4,900 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.03 美元。我們已獲得額外的定期租船保障，將三艘 LR2 型油輪的租船合同延長一年，租金為每天 31,000 美元，同時我們還獲得了一份為期兩年的 Handymax 型油輪定期租船合同，租金為每天 24,000 美元。

We recently paid $50 million into our $225 million revolving credit facility. This amount covers all of the remaining quarterly principal amortization payments that were scheduled up until the loan’s maturity in January of 2028. Subject to the same amortization profile, these amounts can be reborrowed in the future under this revolving credit facility. This repayment follows our $200 million Nordic bond issuance in January, where a portion of the proceeds were used to redeem our then existing senior unsecured notes which were due to mature in June of 2025 for $70.6 million.

我們最近向 2.25 億美元的循環信貸額度中支付了 5,000 萬美元。該金額涵蓋了截至 2028 年 1 月貸款到期前預定的所有剩餘季度本金攤銷付​​款。在相同的攤銷情況下，這些金額可以根據此循環信貸安排在未來重新借入。此次還款是在我們於 1 月發行 2 億美元北歐債券之後進行的，其中部分收益用於贖回當時現有的 7,060 萬美元的優先無擔保票據，這些票據將於 2025 年 6 月到期。

Thus far, this year we increased our investment in DHT by purchasing an additional 4.3 million shares at an average price of $10.67 per share. This aggregate increase in ownership demonstrates our constructive view on the crude tanker market, but we were also opportunistic, having divested 700,000 shares at $11.85 per share. We highlight that this investment has the dual benefit of having meaningful exposure to the VLCC market, while also having the liquidity to move in and out of the position as opportunities arise.

到目前為止，今年我們增加了對 DHT 的投資，以平均每股 10.67 美元的價格額外購買了 430 萬股。此次所有權的整體增加​​表明了我們對原油油輪市場的建設性看法，但我們也抓住了機會，以每股 11.85 美元的價格出售了 700,000 股。我們強調，這項投資具有雙重好處，既可以有意義地接觸 VLCC 市場，又可以在機會出現時擁有進出該部位的流動性。

Slide 6 please. The chart on the left shows our liquidity profile. As you can see we have access to over $1.2 billion in liquidity as of today. This is approximately $1.4 billion if you include our investment in DHT. Our liquidity consists of cash of $397 million along with $838 million of drawdown availability under three revolving credit facilities. This level of revolving debt was made partially possible by the February execution of our new $500 million revolving credit facility, which is secured by 26 vessels.

請看投影片 6。左邊的圖表顯示了我們的流動性狀況。如您所見，截至今天，我們擁有超過 12 億美元的流動資金。如果算上我們在 DHT 的投資，這個數字大約是 14 億美元。我們的流動資金包括 3.97 億美元現金以及三筆循環信貸安排下的 8.38 億美元可用提取額。這一水平的循環債務部分得益於我們 2 月執行的 5 億美元新循環信貸額度，該額度由 26 艘船舶擔保。

While it is currently undrawn, this facility bears a low cost of debt with a margin of 185 basis points when drawn and a seven-year year tenor with no amortization in the first two years. This facility has enabled us to lock in low-cost secured financing through February of 2032, a date that is well past the 2028 maturities of the remainder of our secured bank debt.

雖然目前尚未提取，但該筆貸款的債務成本較低，提取時的保證金為 185 個基點，期限為七年，前兩年無需攤銷。該機制使我們能夠鎖定低成本擔保融資直至 2032 年 2 月，這一日期遠遠超過了我們剩餘擔保銀行債務的 2028 年到期日。

The chart on the right shows the progression of our net debt since December 31, 2021, which has declined almost $2.4 billion to a net debt balance of $535 million as of the date of this press release. In uncertain times such as these, we believe that it is important to maintain a diverse capital structure with multiple sources of funding and maximum flexibility.

右側圖表顯示了我們自 2021 年 12 月 31 日以來淨債務的變化情況，截至本新聞稿發布之日，淨債務餘額已減少近 24 億美元至 5.35 億美元。在這種不確定的時期，我們認為維持多元化的資本結構、多種資金來源和最大程度的靈活性非常重要。

Slide 7, please. The chart on the left breaks down our outstanding debt by type and illustrates our ongoing shift away from high-cost, inflexible lease financing towards lower-cost, more flexible bank lending. Starting at the bottom, we have $72 million of legacy lease financing obligations outstanding on three vessels that are financed with Ocean Yield. These leases are expensive, and under the terms, we will soon have a window to declare purchase options and repurchase two of these vessels within this year and the third within February of 2026.

請看投影片 7。左側的圖表按類型細分了我們的未償債務，並表明我們正在從高成本、不靈活的租賃融資轉向成本更低、更靈活的銀行貸款。從最底層開始，我們有 7,200 萬美元的遺留租賃融資債務未償還，這些債務是針對三艘由 Ocean Yield 融資的船隻。這些租賃費用昂貴，根據條款，我們很快就會有一個窗口來宣布購買選擇，並在今年內回購其中兩艘船，並在2026年2月內回購第三艘船。

In the middle is our secured bank debt with a lending group dominated by experienced European shipping lenders whom we have strong relationships with. All of this debt matures in 2028 and bears interest at margins below 200 basis points. These facilities can be repaid at any time without penalty, and we currently have significant headroom under all of the financial covenants. Further to this, about $300 million of our secured borrowings is drawn revolving debt, an important tool that we can use if we want to repay the debt yet maintain access to the liquidity in the future.

中間是我們的擔保銀行債務，貸款集團主要由經驗豐富的歐洲航運貸款機構主導，我們與他們有著密切的關係。所有這些債務都將於 2028 年到期，利率低於 200 個基點。這些貸款可隨時償還，且不受罰金，目前我們在所有財務契約下都擁有相當大的償還空間。此外，我們的約 3 億美元擔保借款是循環債務，如果我們想償還債務但又想在未來保持流動性，這是一個重要的工具。

At the top is our recently issued $200 million five-year senior unsecured notes, which were issued in the Nordic bond market at a 7.5% coupon rate. These bonds were issued in January of this year, immediately prior to the tariff-driven turmoil that has consumed financial markets recently and significantly altered the landscape for new bond issuances.

最上面的是我們最近發行的 2 億美元五年期無擔保優先票據，在北歐債券市場發行，票面利率為 7.5%。這些債券於今年 1 月發行，恰逢近期由關稅引發的金融市場動盪之前，這場動盪極大地改變了新債券發行的格局。

This bond issuance was a testament to our years long efforts to strengthen our balance sheet and improve our credit profile. The bond issuance was well over subscribed and set the record for the lowest credit spread for any shipping company issuing US dollar-denominated bonds in the Nordic bond market.

此次債券發行證明了我們多年來為加強資產負債表和改善信用狀況所做的努力。此次債券發行獲得超額認購，創下了北歐債券市場航運公司發行美元債券的最低信用利差紀錄。

The chart on the right shows our actual outstanding debt from the end of 2021 through the end of April 2025 along with a bridge showing the changes in our estimated debt balance through the end of June 2025. The uptick in our gross debt over the first four months of this year resulted from the $200 million Nordic bond issuance, offset by the repayment of our then existing senior unsecured notes which were due to mature in June for $70.6 million, along with the recent $50 million payment into our $225 million revolving credit facility.

右側的圖表顯示了我們從 2021 年底到 2025 年 4 月底的實際未償債務，以及一張顯示截至 2025 年 6 月底的預計債務餘額變化的橋樑。今年前四個月，我們的總債務有所增加，這是由於發行了 2 億美元的北歐債券，但被我們償還當時現有的 7060 萬美元的無擔保優先票據（原定於 6 月份到期）以及最近向 2.25 億美元循環信貸額度支付的 5000 萬美元所抵消。

Slide 8, please. Our debt repayment obligations from now until the end of the first quarter of 2026 are highly manageable at approximately $10 million per quarter. Additionally, since the beginning of last year, the company has recently completed the periodic special surveys on almost 60% of the fleet.

請看第 8 張投影片。從現在到 2026 年第一季末，我們的債務償還義務高度可控，約為每季 1,000 萬美元。此外，自去年年初以來，該公司最近已對近60％的船隊完成了定期特別檢驗。

Our forward drydock schedule is light as we come to the end of the year with far fewer off-hire days as compared to last year. Additionally, the work performed during these drydocks is expected to enhance the operating efficiency of each vessel going forward.

隨著年底的臨近，我們的前期乾船塢計畫很輕鬆，與去年相比，停租天數少了很多。此外，這些乾船塢期間進行的工作預計將提高每艘船未來的運作效率。

Slide 9, please. The strength of our balance sheet positions us to continue to generate excess cash flow even in challenging rate environments given our low cash breakeven levels. Further to this, our operating leverage positions us to benefit from spikes in spot market rates that have been commonplace over the past three years.

請翻看投影片 9。鑑於我們的現金損益平衡水準較低，即使在充滿挑戰的利率環境下，我們強勁的資產負債表也使我們能夠繼續產生超額現金流。此外，我們的經營槓桿使我們能夠從過去三年來常見的現貨市場價格飆升中獲益。

To illustrate our cash generation potential, at $20,000 per day, the company can generate up to $271 million in cash flow per year. At $30,000 per day, the company can generate up to $632 million in cash flow per year. And at $40,000 per day, the company can generate up to $994 million in cash flow per year.

為了說明我們的現金創造潛力，以每天 20,000 美元計算，公司每年可產生高達 2.71 億美元的現金流。以每天 30,000 美元計算，該公司每年可產生高達 6.32 億美元的現金流。以每天 4 萬美元計算，該公司每年可產生高達 9.94 億美元的現金流。

This concludes our financial overview. And now I’d like to turn the call over to James who will give an update on the product tanker market.

我們的財務概覽到此結束。現在我想把電話轉給詹姆斯，他將介紹成品油輪市場的最新情況。

Thank you, Chris. Slide 11, please. As Emanuele highlighted, product tanker rates started the second quarter at higher levels than those seen in the first. Refinery maintenance occurred earlier this year with peak maintenance in February and March as opposed to April and May.

謝謝你，克里斯。請翻看第 11 張投影片。正如 Emanuele 所強調的，第二季成品油輪運價初值高於第一季。今年煉油廠維護發生得比較早，維修高峰出現在 2 月和 3 月，而不是 4 月和 5 月。

As capacity came back online in April, seaborne volumes increased and rates showed a steady improvement. Near-term catalysts, including higher naphtha volumes increased OPEC output and a swing of LR2s moving into the crude trade point to a strong market.

隨著四月運力恢復，海運量增加，運價穩定上升。近期催化劑包括石腦油產量增加、OPEC產量增加以及LR2型油輪進入原油貿易市場，這些都預示著市場強勁。

However, policy shifts, tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical crosscurrents have made the macro backdrop less predictable. Until the fog lifts, our visibility into the back half of this year is limited, but fundamentals still look healthy. Demand for refined products remains robust, inventories sit below five-year averages, and refining margins have improved.

然而，政策轉變、關稅、制裁和地緣政治逆流使得宏觀背景變得更難預測。在迷霧散去之前，我們對今年下半年的預測有限，但基本面看起來仍然健康。成品油需求依然強勁，庫存低於五年平均水平，煉油利潤率提高。

Slide 12, please. Seaborne refined product exports have been strong, averaging 20.8 million barrels per day in April, which is 1.2 million barrels a day above their April five-year average. Ton mile demand has increased 13% excluding Russia and 19% including Russia compared to 2019 levels. Seaborne exports continue to increase and travel longer distances.

請翻看第 12 張投影片。海運成品油出口強勁，4 月平均出口量為每天 2,080 萬桶，比 4 月五年平均出口量高出每天 120 萬桶。與 2019 年的水準相比，噸英里需求（不包括俄羅斯）增加了 13%，（包括俄羅斯）增加了 19%。海運出口持續成長，運輸距離也越來越長。

Slide 13, please. We have seen limited changes to Red Sea and Russian refined product flows. Most product tankers still transit around the Cape of Good Hope, although Cape volumes have tapered since October. Russian barrels continue to move, but on longer voyages.

請翻閱第 13 張投影片。我們看到紅海和俄羅斯成品油流的變化有限。儘管自 10 月以來好望角的運量有所減少，但大多數成品油油輪仍在好望角附近運輸。俄羅斯的油桶仍在繼續運輸，但航程更長。

Should a Russia-Ukraine peace deal be reached, many tankers servicing Russian trades would struggle to re-enter Western markets because of their age, operating history, and insurance or maintenance shortcomings. The limitation would favor conventional non-sanctioned vessels if Europe resumed Russian imports.

一旦俄烏達成和平協議，許多為俄羅斯貿易服務的油輪將因船齡、營運歷史以及保險或維護缺陷而難以重新進入西方市場。如果歐洲恢復進口俄羅斯產品，這項限制將有利於傳統的非制裁船舶。

Slide 14, please. The USTR proposed port fees generated plenty of headlines, but the impact looks modest for product tankers. The first section, Annex I, targets vessels that are owned or operated by a Chinese entity. The second section, Annex II, targets vessels that are built in China. However, Annex II has several exemptions which reduce the impact on product tankers.

請翻看第 14 張投影片。美國貿易代表辦公室提議的港口費用引起了許多新聞頭條，但對於成品油油輪而言，其影響似乎並不大。第一部分，即附件一，針對的是中國實體擁有或營運的船舶。第二部分，即附件二，針對的是中國建造的船舶。然而，附件二有幾項豁免條款，可以減少對成品油油輪的影響。

Vessels under 55,000 deadweight tons, including MR tankers and below are exempt. Ships arriving in Dallas are also excluded. Roughly 90% of US refined product imports and exports move on MR product tankers, and the United States is a major exporter. Thus, the impact on product tankers is expected to be minimal.

載重量低於 55,000 噸的船舶（包括 MR 型油輪及以下）不受此限制。抵達達拉斯的船隻也被排除在外。美國約 90% 的成品油進出口均透過 MR 成品油油輪運輸，美國為主要出口國。因此，預計對成品油油輪的影響將很小。

Slide 15, please. Over the medium-term, refinery rationalization is arguably one of, if not the most, important drivers of refined product trade flows. We continue to see closures in global refining capacity. Over the last five years, global net refining capacity growth has been 1 million barrels. Last week, Valero announced that they will close their 150,000 barrel per day Benicia Refinery in California in 2026.

請翻閱第 15 張投影片。從中期來看，煉油廠合理化可以說是成品油貿易流動最重要的驅動因素之一，甚至是最重要的驅動因素。我們持續看到全球煉油產能的關閉。過去五年，全球淨煉油能力成長了100萬桶。上週，瓦萊羅石油公司宣布將於 2026 年關閉位於加州的日產 15 萬桶的貝尼西亞煉油廠。

Refineries face steep capital outlays to stay compliant with tightening regulations. And for older refineries, the economics may no longer work. We anticipate further closures, potentially at an accelerated pace if the economy softens. As we saw in Australia, refinery closures don’t eliminate demand; they simply reroute it and often across oceans and over longer distances.

煉油廠面臨巨額資本支出以遵守日益嚴格的法規。對老煉油廠來說，經濟效益可能不再顯著。我們預計會有更多企業關閉，如果經濟疲軟，關閉速度可能會加快。正如我們在澳洲看到的那樣，煉油廠關閉並不會消除需求；他們只是改變路線，而且經常跨越海洋和更遠的距離。

Slide 16, please. We thought it would be useful to look at refined product demand under different global economic slowdowns. After Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the Asian currency crisis in September 11/dot-com bubble, total refined product demand didn’t fall; it merely grew at a slower rate.

請看第 16 張投影片。我們認為，研究不同全球經濟放緩情況下的成品油需求將會很有幫助。伊拉克入侵科威特、9·11亞洲貨幣危機/網路泡沫之後，成品油總需求並沒有下降；只是生長速度變慢了。

During the financial crisis, consumption dropped 0.7% in 2008 and 1.7% in 2009 before recovering in 2010. Essentially, outside of COVID, there was a relatively quick recovery in demand. So what happened to seaborne exports and ton miles during these periods?

金融危機期間，2008年消費下降0.7%，2009年下降1.7%，2010年才回升。基本上，在新冠疫情之外，需求復甦相對較快。那麼這些時期海運出口和噸英里數發生了什麼變化呢？

Slide 17, please. Similarly, outside of COVID, in mild recessionary environments, seaborne refined product exports in ton miles experienced moderate declines followed by quick recoveries in demand. Interestingly, seaborne exports and ton mile demand increased through the global financial crisis. From 2007 to 2010, ton mile demand increased close to 19%. The challenge is typically the supply side, and the best evidence of this is Slide 18, please.

請翻閱第 17 張投影片。同樣，在新冠疫情之外，在溫和的經濟衰退環境中，海運成品油出口（以噸英里計）經歷了適度下降，隨後需求迅速回升。有趣的是，在全球金融危機期間，海運出口和噸英里需求增加。從2007年到2010年，噸英里需求增加了近19%。挑戰通常在於供應方面，最好的證據就是投影片 18。

From 2003 to 2010, the product tanker fleet grew 114%. In January 2007, the order book reached 63% of the existing fleet. So despite the 19% increase in ton miles during the global financial crisis, fleet growth outpaced demand. Today, the order book is 20% of the existing fleet, and a good share of those new builds are LR2s that may end up in the crude trade. Layer on an aging fleet and the supply picture looks far more modest.

從 2003 年到 2010 年，成品油油船隊數量增加了 114%。2007年1月，訂單量已達現有船隊的63%。因此，儘管全球金融危機期間噸英里數增加了 19%，但船隊的成長速度仍超過了需求。如今，訂單量佔現有船隊的 20%，而這些新建油輪中很大一部分是 LR2，這些油輪最終可能會用於原油貿易。加上老化的船隊，供應情況看起來就更嚴峻了。

Slide 19 please. Half the product tanker order book is LR2 vessels. As highlighted in the past, owners have opted to build coated LR2 vessels over non-coated Aframax vessels to have the optionality to trade in clean products. As a result, 46% of the combined Aframax LR2 fleet will be LR2s by 2028.

請看投影片 19。成品油輪訂單中有一半是 LR2 型船。正如過去所強調的那樣，船東選擇建造塗層 LR2 船舶而不是無塗層阿芙拉型船舶，以便能夠選擇交易清潔產品。因此，到 2028 年，阿芙拉型油輪 LR2 船隊總規模中將有 46% 為 LR2。

The challenge with this is that 4 times as much crude oil is carried on Aframax LR2 vessels compared to clean products. This is why 40% to 50% of the LR2 fleet has historically traded crude oil. We expect this ratio to continue because it would be difficult for 46% of the Aframax LR2 fleet to carry 20% of the overall volume.

面臨的挑戰是，阿芙拉型油輪 LR2 所運載的原油數量是清潔原油數量的 4 倍。這就是為什麼歷史上 40% 到 50% 的 LR2 船隊都從事原油交易。我們預計這一比例將持續下去，因為 46% 的阿芙拉型 LR2 船隊難以運載 20% 的總運力。

Slide 20, please. As one would imagine, older vessels carry less cargo and travel shorter distances. As the graph on the left highlights, a 20-year old product tanker’s ton mile demand declines 45% compared to a 12-year old vessel. And if it were not for older vessels servicing the Russian trade, the decline would be over 60%.

請翻看第 20 張投影片。正如人們所想的那樣，老船運載的貨物較少，航行距離較短。如左圖所示，與 12 年船齡的油輪相比，20 年船齡的成品油輪的噸英里需求下降了 45%。如果不是服務俄羅斯貿易的老舊船隻，下降幅度將超過 60%。

Thus, even if the vessel is not scrapped, it’s carrying significantly less cargo, reducing effective fleet growth. And the significant fleet growth highlighted from 2003 to 2010 is turning 20 years old every year through 2030.

因此，即使該船沒有報廢，其運載的貨物也會大大減少，從而降低船隊的有效成長。2003 年至 2010 年間船隊的顯著成長，到 2030 年，每年都將達到 20 年。

In the right-hand graph, you can see the age profile. Including the order book, 17.5% of the fleet today is older than 20 years. By 2028, that number increases to 30%.

在右側的圖表中，您可以看到年齡分佈。包括訂單在內，目前 17.5% 的船隊船齡超過 20 年。到 2028 年，這一數字將增加到 30%。

Slide 21. Given the age of the fleet and likelihood of LR2 vessels trading crude oil, fleet growth could be lower than expected. In scenario two, we assume 40% of LR2 new builds carry crude and scrapping remains minimal. If so, the product tanker fleet would increase by roughly 3% per year.

幻燈片 21。考慮到船隊的年齡和 LR2 船舶交易原油的可能性，船隊增長可能低於預期。在第二種情境中，我們假設 40% 的 LR2 新建船舶運載原油，並且報廢量保持極低。如果是這樣，成品油油船隊規模每年將增加約 3%。

In scenario three, using the same LR2 assumptions, but accounting for capacity declines for vessels 21 to 27 years old, effective fleet growth drops to about 1% per year. By contrast, ton mile demand has compounded at a 3.6% annual growth rate since 2000.

在情境三中，使用相同的 LR2 假設，但考慮到 21 至 27 年船齡船舶的運力下降，有效船隊成長率下降至每年約 1%。相較之下，自2000年以來，噸英里需求以每年3.6%的複合成長率成長。

Strong demand, modest supply growth, and structural shifts in refining capacity continue to add ton miles. The balance of probabilities still point to a constructive outlook, but we remain mindful of the broader macro uncertainty and feel well positioned with a young fleet and a strong balance sheet.

強勁的需求、適度的供應成長以及煉油能力的結構性轉變繼續增加噸英里數。各種可能性的平衡仍然指向建設性的前景，但我們仍然留意更廣泛的宏觀不確定性，並認為憑藉年輕的船隊和強勁的資產負債表，我們處於有利地位。

With that, we’d like to open it up for Q&A.

有了這些，我們想開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

諾克塔（Omar Nokta），傑富瑞集團。

Thank you. Hey, guys. Good morning. Today’s report is just about business as usual as you can get. Especially with this backdrop of what’s going on in the broader markets, and you entered into some nice charters. Just wanted to ask maybe in terms of ship values, clearly, there’s been a significant disconnect between where the equities are and tanker values. And obviously, not just for Scorpio, but across the board.

謝謝。嘿，大家好。早安.今天的報告只是關於一切正常的業務。特別是在更廣泛的市場背景下，您簽署了一些不錯的協議。我只是想問一下，就船舶價值而言，顯然股票價值和油輪價值之間有顯著的脫節。顯然，這不僅適用於天蠍座，而且適用於所有人。

And it seems like something has to give at some point. Maybe they converge or one meets the other. So far, we’re seeing tanker rates as evidenced by your guidance so far; they’re rising.

似乎到了某個時候，有些事情必須放棄。也許它們會匯合，或者其中一個會與另一個相遇。到目前為止，我們看到油輪費率正如您迄今為止的指導所證明的那樣；它們正在上升。

How are you thinking about where ship values are? Are you seeing them holding up? Is there transactions going on that can give you a barometer of what’s happening? What are you seeing from your vantage point there?

您如何看待船舶的價值？你看到他們在堅持嗎？是否有正在進行的交易可以為您提供正在發生的事情的指標？從你的有利位置你看到了什麼？

I’ll start, Omar. Emanuele here. I think that the correction that we’ve seen in ship values, it’s closely correlated to the global uncertainty that has characterized the world in the last six months. So the big correction has come and has been more pronounced as the global uncertainty increased.

我先開始，奧馬爾。這裡是埃馬努埃萊。我認為，我們看到的船舶價值的調整與過去六個月全球的不確定性密切相關。因此，隨著全球不確定性的增加，大幅調整已經到來，而且調整幅度更加明顯。

So the way we see it is difficult to read at this stage as everything else, as we discussed in the opening remarks and in the presentations. The fundamentals remain positive. And like you just said, we think that something’s got to give, and we think that the values are going to be readjusted to match the rates as soon as the world gets some calm.

因此，正如我們在開場白和演講中所討論的那樣，我們認為在現階段很難理解其他一切。基本面依然樂觀。正如您剛才所說，我們認為必須做出一些讓步，並且我們認為一旦世界局勢平靜下來，價值就會重新調整以適應利率。

Thank you. Thanks, Emanuele. And maybe just my second question. Clearly in a different world today with tariffs and ongoing trade war and whatnot, can you talk a little bit about what you’ve seen, if there’s been any changes over the past few weeks or months in chartering habits, especially as we think about what happened roughly about a month ago at the beginning of April, when it felt like things had gotten to a standstill? Did you see any of that make its way into products and any shifts since then? Thank you.

謝謝。謝謝，伊曼紐。這也許只是我的第二個問題。顯然，在當今這個充滿關稅和持續不斷的貿易戰等因素的世界裡，您能否談談您所看到的情況，看看過去幾週或幾個月租船習慣是否有任何變化，尤其是當我們想到大約一個月前，也就是四月初發生的事情時，感覺事情已經陷入停滯？從那時起，您是否看到其中任何一項進入了產品領域並發生了任何轉變？謝謝。

Lars, do you want to take this?

拉斯，你想拿走這個嗎？

Yeah, I’m here. I think it’s really interesting to see that when the tariffs really came into play on, in particular on the gas side, what that really meant for naphtha. There is -- and there currently still is a rally going on with cracks and the time spreads. They’re hitting all-time highs for this year.

是的，我在這裡。我認為，當關稅真正發揮作用時，特別是在天然氣方面，看看這對石腦油意味著什麼，這真的很有趣。目前，反彈仍在繼續，但隨著時間的推移，出現了裂縫。他們今年的成績創下了歷史新高。

We’re seeing and have also talked about in the past about this perpetual west to east naphtha arb that’s been moving. But we can really start seeing that there is a lot of demand that is kind of coming in as naphtha probably is going to be favored over propane in terms of pricing.

我們看到並且過去也討論過這種從西向東不斷移動的石腦油套利現象。但我們確實開始看到，有大量的需求正在湧入，因為就定價而言，石腦油可能比丙烷更受青睞。

It certainly is the case right now that, for the crackers and so on that they are probably switching over to naphtha, which of course, bodes well for -- in particular for the LR2s. So we’re seeing a lot of naphtha being pointed towards China or Asia in general. And we don’t see that kind of changing in the short-term.

目前的情況確實如此，對於裂解廠等來說，他們可能正在轉向使用石腦油，這當然是一個好兆頭——特別是對於 LR2 來說。因此，我們看到大量石腦油被運往中國或整個亞洲。我們認為短期內這種情況不會改變。

This is irrespective of the fact that ethane has been exempted from the tariffs. It could happen that propane as well is going to be played into that. But as things stand right now, it turns to see that naphtha cracks have been remaining strong in the Asian markets.

這與乙烷是否已免關稅無關。丙烷也有可能參與其中。但就目前情況來看，亞洲市場的石腦油裂解價差依然強勁。

Chris Robertson, Deutsche Bank.

克里斯·羅伯遜，德意志銀行。

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to focus a bit on -- the vessel OpEx came down pretty significantly quarter over quarter, kind of normalizing back to levels seen in 2024. Can you just talk about kind of the change from 4Q to 1Q, and what you think run rate OpEx will be going forward here?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我只想稍微關註一下——船舶運營成本環比大幅下降，基本上恢復到 2024 年的水平。您能否談談從第四季度到第一季的變化，以及您認為未來的營運支出運行率將會如何？

I’ll take that one. Hi, Chris. Chris, obviously, we’re happy to see the number come down, but as I’ve said on previous calls, one quarter doesn’t necessarily set a trend. So of course, we’re happy with the results. But if I were looking for a run rate, I would really use like a trailing 12-months average.

我要那個。你好，克里斯。克里斯，顯然，我們很高興看到這個數字下降，但正如我在之前的電話中所說的那樣，一個季度並不一定能代表一種趨勢。因此，我們當然對結果感到滿意。但如果我要尋找運行率，我實際上會使用過去 12 個月的平均值。

And to help with that -- so for the LR2s, I’d say that’s like slightly below or around $9,000 per day. For the MRs and the Handymaxes, I would say slightly below $8,000 per day on a normalized basis.

為了解決這個問題 — — 對於 LR2 型油輪，我認為其價格約為每天 9,000 美元以下。對於 MR 型船和 Handymax 型船，我認為正常情況下每天的價格略低於 8,000 美元。

Okay. Great. That’s helpful. Going back to Omar’s question a bit on naphtha versus some of the ethane-based crackers. Do you have a sense of how many of the newer ethane-based crackers in China have some feedstock flexibility versus those that don’t and kind of what the bigger market opportunity might be if the arb is closed or it’s better favorable economics for naphtha?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。回到奧馬爾關於石腦油與一些乙烷基裂解裝置的問題。您是否知道中國有多少較新的乙烷裂解裝置具有一定的原料彈性，而哪些不具有？如果套利關閉，或者對石腦油的經濟效益更有利，那麼更大的市場機會可能是什麼？

I can start and maybe James can follow on. But I think that China has about 300,000 barrel per day propane to naphtha switching capability. But I think, overall, in the complex you have to look at the different markets that are adjacent to them as well, where they can compensate for lower PDH run rates which provides them higher naphtha imports.

我可以開始，也許詹姆斯可以跟進。但我認為中國每天擁有約30萬桶丙烷到石腦油的轉換能力。但我認為，總體而言，在這個綜合體中，你還必須考慮與其相鄰的不同市場，在這些市場中，他們可以彌補較低的 PDH 運行率，從而獲得更高的石腦油進口量。

But the fact of the matter is that where we kind of going into driving season would have seen a lot more naphtha, heavy naphtha is moving into gasoline pool in the West, we’re seeing a greater amount of naphtha moving from the kind of naphtha loading ports going around the Cape to destinations in Asia.

但事實是，當我們進入駕駛季節時，我們會看到更多的石腦油，重質石腦油正在流入西方的汽油池，我們看到更多的石腦油從石腦油裝運港運往好望角附近的亞洲目的地。

Liam Burke, B Riley.

利亞姆·伯克、B·萊利。

Thank you. We’ve had more of crude production, both from OPEC+ putting out more barrels plus non-OPEC countries coming online. How is that impacting the – your side of the market on the refined product side?

謝謝。我們的原油產量增加了，這既來自 OPEC+ 的增產，也來自非 OPEC 國家的增產。這對您所在的成品油市場有何影響？

Well, I’m going to start with first part of it, which is kind of pretty obvious, is that when we’ve been on these calls before, a lot of the questions have been about the crude-clean switching and stuff like that and the risk of the kind of cross cannibalization from the crude side. That for sure is no longer an issue that we consider to be prevalent. The crude markets have increased substantially.

好吧，我將從第一部分開始，這部分很明顯，那就是當我們之前參加這些電話會議時，很多問題都是關於原油和清潔能源的轉換之類的，以及原油方面交叉蠶食的風險。我們認為這肯定不再是一個普遍存在的問題。原油市場大幅上漲。

Atlantic Basin Aframaxes certainly are very strong. We have seen over the last week, maybe 10 days, five LR2s going into [dirty]. There’s also quite clear that if the crude prices continue to drop, are we going into kind of back to a contango market? There’s -- I think it’s 400,000 barrels of kind of additional production that came into May.

大西洋盆地阿芙拉型油輪確實非常強勁。過去一周，大概 10 天，我們看到 5 艘 LR2 型油輪進入[骯髒的]。很明顯，如果原油價格繼續下跌，我們是否會回到正價差市場？我認為 5 月的額外產量約為 40 萬桶。

Obviously, everybody talks about what OPEC is going be doing over the next two to three months in terms of unwinding their cuts. This, of course, is going to be very strong sign for the VLCCs, but that obviously flows through down to the Aframaxes. And that substitution for sure will be another positive sign for the LR2s.

顯然，每個人都在談論歐佩克在未來兩到三個月內將如何解除減產。當然，這對於超大型油輪 (VLCC) 來說是一個非常強烈的訊號，但這顯然也會影響阿芙拉型油輪。而這個替代對於 LR2 來說無疑將是一個正面的訊號。

So I think today, if we look at it, if I remember correctly, is that we’re now about 50/50 into the standard LR2 versus Aframax fleet, whereas we’ve had over the last 12 months, probably a stronger proponent of ships going in clean that has now reversed. I think also it’s interesting to note that if you look at the new buildings, which has been the other issue that we’ve been facing from the vessels loading kind of with virgin tanks, cargoes loading out of Asia, I believe it’s only five VLCCs that are going to be delivered this year. So we don’t have the same issue as we saw the prevalent -- previous years.

所以我認為，如果我們今天看一下，如果我沒有記錯的話，我們現在在標準 LR2 和阿芙拉型油輪船隊中的比例大約是 50/50，而在過去 12 個月中，我們可能更支持清潔船舶的運輸，但現在情況已經逆轉。我認為值得注意的是，如果你看一下新建築，這是我們面臨的另一個問題，這些船隻裝載著原始油罐，貨物從亞洲裝運出去，我相信今年只有五艘 VLCC 會交付。因此，我們並沒有遇到前幾年普遍存在的相同問題。

There’s a lot of Suezmaxes as well that are being delivered this year; I think it’s 23. However, with all this additional oil that’s very much Suezmax focused and particularly the stuff around Kazakhstan will be very positive for that particular market. But most importantly, for our market, we’ll not have this cannibalization substitution effect that we’ve seen in the previous years.

今年也有很多蘇伊士型油輪交付；我認為是 23。然而，隨著這些新增石油主要集中在蘇伊士型油輪上，特別是哈薩克週邊地區的石油供應將對該特定市場產生非常正面的影響。但最重要的是，對於我們的市場而言，我們不會出現前幾年所看到的這種蠶食替代效應。

I would add to this, Liam, that obviously, if you just look at the macro part of things that a more oil -- more cheaper oil is obviously very good for the demand and puts pressure on alternatives. The second aspect is that we, as Lars was talking about, is the actual ships themselves and how that’s related into their spreads. But it’s only a positive, especially.

利亞姆，我想補充一點，顯然，如果你只看宏觀層面，更多的石油——更便宜的石油顯然對需求非常有利，並對替代品施加壓力。第二個方面是，正如拉爾斯所談論的，我們關注的是實際的船隻本身以及它與船隻傳播之間的關係。但這只是正面的，尤其是。

And the third thing to remember here is that inventories are very low compared in crude or in products. They’re significantly below five-year averages. So as Lars said, if you take the trade into contango, then that would give the option for even extra barrels in demand required to rebuild storage on top of basic demand.

這裡要記住的第三件事是，與原油或產品相比，庫存非常低。它們遠低於五年平均水平。因此，正如拉爾斯所說，如果將交易納入正價差，那麼這將為在基本需求的基礎上重建儲存提供更多桶的需求。

Great. Thank you, Robert. And on the tariff front or the USTR, does that have any impact on the sale and purchase of Chinese vessels?

偉大的。謝謝你，羅伯特。那麼就關稅方面或美國貿易代表辦公室而言，這對中國船舶的買賣有何影響？

I’m not sure. I think the actual USTR seems to be pretty insignificant for the product market.

我不確定。我認為實際的 USTR 對於產品市場來說似乎無關緊要。

Frode Morkedal, Clarksons Securities.

Frode Morkedal，克拉克森證券。

Hey, guys. Yeah, I guess you just said the USTR didn’t matter that much, but I just wanted to follow-up anyway because yeah, thankfully the MRs are exempt more or less. So you can do triangulations without any problems.

嘿，大家好。是的，我想你剛才說了 USTR 沒那麼重要，但我還是想跟進一下，因為是的，值得慶幸的是，MR 或多或少是被豁免的。因此您可以毫無問題地進行三角測量。

But I guess LR2s and Aframaxes are not exempt. But I just wanted to ask if there are any triangulation involving the US Gulf anyway. And if so, maybe owners like you with a very high share of Korean vessels could benefit from that or not?

但我猜 LR2 型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪也不例外。但我只是想問一下是否存在涉及美國墨西哥灣的三角測量。如果是這樣，那麼像您這樣擁有大量韓國船舶的船東是否可以從中受益？

The first part, I’ll just take that. And yeah, on the LR2s, the LR2 market is insignificant when it comes to the US. So, if it’s Chinese-built, Korean-built, for most part of the LR2s, that is not an issue. It becomes a greater issue, of course, on the Aframaxes but as you rightfully said Frode, on balance, considering the fleet structure that we have in Scorpio, it’s not going to present an issue for us.

第一部分，我就只講這個。是的，就 LR2 而言，就美國而言，LR2 市場並不重要。因此，如果大部分 LR2 是中國製造或韓國製造的，那就不是問題。當然，對於阿芙拉型油輪來說，這會成為一個更大的問題，但正如弗羅德所說，總的來說，考慮到我們天蠍座的船隊結構，這不會給我們帶來問題。

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to Emanuele Lauro for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把演講時間交給 Emanuele Lauro 來做結束語。

Thank you very much for everybody’s time today. I don’t have any further remarks. Look forward to speaking with you in the future, as the case may be. Thanks a lot for your time. Goodbye.

非常感謝大家今天抽出時間。我沒有其他的評論。期待將來與您交談（視情況而定）。非常感謝您抽出時間。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連線了。