意法半導體 (STM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and thank you, everyone, for joining our third quarter 2023 financial results conference call. Hosting the call today is Jean-Marc Chery, ST's President and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Jean-Marc on the call today are Lorenzo Grandi, our Chief Financial Officer; and Marco Cassis, President of Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group and Head of STMicroelectronics Strategy, System Research and Application Innovation Office.

早安，感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是 ST 總裁兼執行長 Jean-Marc Chery。今天與 Jean-Marc 一起參加電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Lorenzo Grandi； Marco Cassis，模擬、MEMS 和感測器事業部總裁兼意法半導體策略、系統研究和應用創新辦公室負責人。

This live webcast and presentation materials can be accessed on ST's Investor Relations website. A replay will be available shortly after the conclusion of this call.

您可以在 ST 的投資者關係網站上存取該現場網路廣播和演示資料。本次電話會議結束後不久將進行重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause ST's results to differ materially from management's expectations and plans. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the press release that was issued with the results this morning and also in ST's most recent regulatory filings for a full description of these risk factors. (Operator Instructions)

這次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 ST 的業績與管理層的預期和計劃存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看今天早上發布的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明以及 ST 最新的監管文件中包含的安全港聲明，以獲取這些風險因素的完整描述。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Jean-Marc, ST's President and CEO.

我現在想將電話轉給 ST 總裁兼執行長 Jean-Marc。

Thank you, Celine. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining ST for our Q3 2023 earnings conference call. Let me begin with some opening comments.

謝謝你，席琳。大家早安，感謝您參加 ST 的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。讓我先發表一些開場評論。

Starting with Q3. So third quarter net revenues of $4.43 billion came in above the midpoint of our business outlook range, and Q3 gross margin of 47.6% was 10 basis points above guidance. Q3 net revenues increased 2.5% year-over-year. As expected, the revenue performance was driven mainly by continued growth in Automotive, partially offset by lower revenues in Personal Electronics.

從第三季開始。因此，第三季淨收入為 44.3 億美元，高於我們業務前景範圍的中點，第三季毛利率為 47.6%，比指導值高出 10 個基點。第三季淨收入年增 2.5%。如預期，營收表現主要受到汽車業務持續成長的推動，但部分被個人電子產品收入下降所抵銷。

Looking at our year-over-year performance. Gross margin remained stable at 47.6%, while, as expected, operating margin decreased to 28% from 29.4%. And net income was stable at $1.09 billion. For the 9-month period, net revenues increased 11.1% year-over-year to $13 billion driven by growth in the ADG and MDG product groups and partially offset by a decline of the AMS product group.

看看我們的同比表現。毛利率穩定在 47.6%，而營業利潤率如預期從 29.4% 下降至 28%。淨利穩定在10.9億美元。在過去 9 個月期間，淨收入年增 11.1%，達到 130 億美元，這主要得益於 ADG 和 MDG 產品組的成長，但部分被 AMS 產品組的下降所抵消。

We reported gross margin of 48.7%, operating margin of 27.6% and net income of $3.14 billion.

我們的毛利率為 48.7%，營業利益率為 27.6%，淨利潤為 31.4 億美元。

On Q4 2023, our fourth quarter business outlook is for net revenues of about $4.3 billion at the midpoint declining year-over-year and sequentially by about 3%. Gross margin is expected to be about 46%. For the full year 2023, the midpoint of our Q4 guidance translates into revenue growth of about 7.3% to $7.3 billion with a gross margin of 48.1%.

2023 年第四季度，我們第四季的業務展望是淨收入約 43 億美元，中位數年減，季減約 3%。毛利率預計約46%。對於 2023 年全年，我們第四季度指導的中位數意味著營收成長約 7.3% 至 73 億美元，毛利率為 48.1%。

Now I will move to a detailed review of the third quarter. Net revenues increased 2.5% year-over-year. This performance was driven mainly by ADG and continued strength in Automotive and to a lesser extent, by MDG. As expected, AMS revenue decreased mainly reflecting lower revenue in Personal Electronics. This includes the impact of the change in product mix in an engaged customer program in Personal Electronics that I first mentioned in January.

現在我將詳細回顧第三季。淨收入較去年同期成長2.5%。這一業績主要是由 ADG 和汽車業務的持續強勁推動的，在較小程度上是由 MDG 推動的。如預期，AMS 收入下降主要反映個人電子產品收入下降。這包括我在一月首次提到的個人電子產品參與客戶計畫中產品組合變化的影響。

Year-over-year, sales increased 2.1% to OEM and 3.4% to distribution. On a sequential basis, net revenues increased 2.4% with ADG up 3.6%, AMS up 5.3% and MDG down 1%. Net revenues came in 130 basis points above the midpoint of our outlook, mainly reflecting higher sales than expected in Personal Electronics.

OEM 銷售額較去年同期成長 2.1%，分銷銷售額成長 3.4%。環比淨收入成長 2.4%，其中 ADG 成長 3.6%，AMS 成長 5.3%，MDG 下降 1%。淨收入比我們預期的中點高出 130 個基點，主要反映了個人電子產品的銷售額高於預期。

Gross profit was $2.11 billion, increasing 2.4% year-over-year. Gross margin of 47.6% was stable year-over-year, and improved product mix was offset by higher manufacturing costs and unused capacity charges.

毛利為21.1億美元，年增2.4%。 47.6%的毛利率較去年同期穩定，產品組合的改善被製造成本和未使用產能費用的增加所抵銷。

Year-over-year, third quarter operating income decreased 2.4% to $1.24 billion. Operating margin was 28%, decreasing by 140 basis points versus 29.4% in the year ago quarter. This was due to higher OpEx-to-sales ratio as we continue to invest in innovation and in the digital transformation of the company. On a year-over-year basis, both net income and earnings per diluted share in the quarter were stable at $1.09 billion and $1.16, respectively.

第三季營業收入年減 2.4% 至 12.4 億美元。營業利益率為 28%，比去年同期的 29.4% 下降 140 個基點。這是由於我們持續投資於公司的創新和數位轉型，從而提高了營運支出與銷售額的比率。與去年同期相比，本季淨利和稀釋每股收益分別穩定在 10.9 億美元和 1.16 美元。

Looking at the year-over-year sales performance by product group. ADG revenues increased 29.6% on a double-digit growth in both the Automotive and Power Discrete subgroups. AMS revenues decreased 28.3% with lower revenues in the 3 subgroups. MDG revenues increased 2.8%. Revenues grew in RF communication and were substantially flat in the Microcontrollers subgroup.

按產品組查看年比銷售業績。汽車和功率分立元件子組均達到兩位數成長，ADG 營收成長 29.6%。 AMS 收入下降 28.3%，其中 3 個子組的收入有所下降。 MDG 收入成長 2.8%。射頻通訊領域的營收成長，但微控制器子組的營收基本上持平。

In terms of operating margin by product group on a year-over-year basis. ADG operating margin increased to 31.5% from 25.9%. IMS operating margin decreased to 18.8% from 27.2%, while ADG operating margin decreased to 35.1% from 36.7%. Net cash from operating activities increased to $1.88 billion in Q3 versus $1.65 billion in the year ago quarter.

按產品組劃分的營業利潤率較去年同期情況。 ADG 營業利益率從 25.9% 增至 31.5%。 IMS 營運利潤率從 27.2% 下降至 18.8%，ADG 營運利潤率從 36.7% 下降至 35.1%。第三季經營活動產生的淨現金增加至 18.8 億美元，去年同期為 16.5 億美元。

Net CapEx in the third quarter was $1.15 billion compared to $955 million in the year ago quarter. Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $2.87 billion compared to $2.38 billion in the year ago quarter. Days sales of inventory at quarter end was 140 days compared to 126 days in the previous quarter and 96 days in the year ago quarter. Free cash flow was $707 million compared to $676 million in the year ago quarter.

第三季淨資本支出為 11.5 億美元，去年同期為 9.55 億美元。第三季末的庫存為 28.7 億美元，而去年同期的庫存為 23.8 億美元。季末庫存銷售天數為 140 天，上一季為 126 天，去年同期為 96 天。自由現金流為 7.07 億美元，去年同期為 6.76 億美元。

During the third quarter, ST paid $58 million of cash dividends to stockholders, and we executed an $87 million share buyback under our current share repurchase program. ST net financial position of $2.46 billion as of September 30, 2023, reflected total liquidity of $5.05 billion and total financial debt of $2.59 billion.

第三季度，ST向股東支付了5,800萬美元的現金股息，並根據目前的股票回購計畫執行了8,700萬美元的股票回購。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，ST 淨財務狀況為 24.6 億美元，反映流動性總額為 50.5 億美元，金融債務總額為 25.9 億美元。

I will now go through a short update on some of our strategic focus areas in Q3. First, wide bandgap semiconductors. We began volume production of gallium nitride transistors, which simplifies the design of high-efficiency power commercial systems. We support the development of safe and reliable wide bandgap power systems for high-power applications with industry-leading galvanically isolated drivers. In the quarter, we introduced new STGAP products, specifically designed for PowerGaN transistors based on ST unique IP and advanced BCD technology.

我現在將簡要介紹第三季我們的一些策略重點領域的最新情況。第一，寬頻隙半導體。我們開始批量生產氮化鎵晶體管，這簡化了高效能電力商業系統的設計。我們支援使用業界領先的電流隔離驅動器開發安全可靠的寬頻隙電源系統，用於高功率應用。本季度，我們推出了新的 STGAP 產品，基於 ST 獨特的 IP 和先進的 BCD 技術，專為 PowerGaN 電晶體設計。

In silicon carbide, we continue to increase the number of engagements. We are now working with 94 customers and 150 projects, up from 90 customers and 140 last quarter, which here range from electrical vehicle applications, such as onboard chargers to power module, its solar power system. We confirm our revenues for silicon carbide products will reach about $1.2 billion this year.

在碳化矽方面，我們不斷增加接合數量。我們現在與 94 個客戶和 150 個項目合作，高於上季度的 90 個客戶和 140 個項目，範圍從電動汽車應用（如車載充電器）到電源模組（太陽能發電系統）。我們確認今年碳化矽產品的收入將達到約 12 億美元。

In car digitalization, we saw continued design win momentum with our latest generation of automotive microcontrollers called Stellar across key applications. These include design wins in zonal modules for software-defined vehicle architectures and in next-generation battery management systems in partnership with major carmakers.

在汽車數位化領域，我們看到我們最新一代的汽車微控制器 Stellar 在關鍵應用中不斷贏得設計動力。其中包括在軟體定義車輛架構的區域模組以及與主要汽車製造商合作的下一代電池管理系統方面取得的設計勝利。

In ADAS, the EyeQ6 project with Mobileye is progressing to plan with early volume ramp-up this year. We have also seen strong market interest in ST high-precision GNSS solution, Teseo, adapted for ADAS systems.

在 ADAS 領域，與 Mobileye 合作的 EyeQ6 專案正在按計劃進行，今年將提前實現產量提升。我們也看到市場對適用於 ADAS 系統的 ST 高精度 GNSS 解決方案 Teseo 表現出了濃厚的興趣。

At the end of September, we held our annual Industrial Summit event in China. We do over 1,300 customers in person and over 50,000 participating online. The theme of this year's event was powering new sustainable innovation and was focused on helping customers address climate-related challenges. We showcased 150 demos in 3 market segments, automation, power energy and motor control, where ST has created dedicated competence centers located close to our customers.

九月底，我們在中國舉辦了一年一度的工業高峰會。我們親自接待了超過 1,300 名客戶，並有超過 50,000 名線上客戶參與。今年活動的主題是推動新的永續創新，重點是幫助客戶應對氣候相關挑戰。我們展示了自動化、電力能源和電機控制這 3 個細分市場的 150 個演示，其中 ST 在靠近客戶的地方創建了專門的能力中心。

The registration of new designs in distribution we are receiving for our flagship STM32 family is increasing year-over-year on all our products, including matured. This is a really positive indication of the market total appetite for our products.

我們收到的旗艦 STM32 系列新設計註冊數量在我們所有產品（包括成熟產品）中逐年增加。這是市場對我們產品整體需求的正面跡象。

Moreover, we released the first ST cellular narrowband IoT ultracompact and low-power modules, combining cellular IoT connectivity and geo localization capabilities for wide-ranging IoT, smart metering and industrial application. We further enlarge the reach of application and new scale for industrial customers by introducing new products, such as time of flight and thermal MOS infrared sensors as well as the third generation of inshore sensors.

此外，我們也發表了首款ST蜂巢窄頻物聯網超緊湊型和低功耗模組，結合了蜂窩物聯網連接和地理定位功能，適用於廣泛的物聯網、智慧計量和工業應用。我們透過推出飛行時間、熱MOS紅外線感測器以及第三代近岸感測器等新產品，進一步擴大了工業客戶的應用範圍和新規模。

To support our strategic focus areas in number processing. We have new ecosystem tools towards STM32 family. We also continue to expand our engagements with customers to deploy HAI for a growing range of use cases. This is based both on our extensive to see allowing porting of AI algorithm to our existing MCU portfolio as well as the Alpha customer engagements for our latest neural processor-enabled MCU.

支持我們在數位處理方面的策略重點領域。我們為 STM32 系列提供了新的生態系統工具。我們也繼續擴大與客戶的合作，為越來越多的用例部署 HAI。這是基於我們廣泛看到允許將 AI 演算法移植到我們現有的 MCU 產品組合以及 Alpha 客戶對我們最新的支援神經處理器的 MCU 的參與。

To conclude this review in our radio frequency communications business, we are continuously expanding our strategic collaboration on specific targets, which provide high-speed Internet connectivity to a growing customer base in more than 60 countries around the world. They are ramping up their next-generation products, which leverage our (inaudible) processes as well as innovative and highly differentiated packaging technology.

為了結束對我們射頻通訊業務的審查，我們正在不斷擴大針對特定目標的策略合作，為全球 60 多個國家/地區不斷增長的客戶群提供高速網路連線。他們正在開發下一代產品，這些產品利用了我們（聽不清楚）的流程以及創新且高度差異化的包裝技術。

Now let's move to our fourth quarter 2023 financial outlook and our plans for the full year 2023. For the fourth quarter, we expect net revenues at the midpoint to be about $4.3 billion, representing a year-over-year and sequential decline of about 3%. Q4 gross margin is expected to be about 46% at the midpoint, including about 130 basis points of unused capacity charges.

現在讓我們展望 2023 年第四季度的財務展望以及 2023 年全年的計劃。對於第四季度，我們預計中點淨收入約為 43 億美元，同比和環比下降約 3%。 %。第四季毛利率中位數預計約為 46%，其中包括約 130 個基點的未使用產能費用。

For 2023, our Q4 guidance at the midpoint translates into 2023 net revenues of about $7.3 billion. This represents growth of about 7.3% year-over-year with a gross margin of about 48.1%. The $7.3 billion is consistent with the indicated range we provided late July. The $100 million difference at the midpoint relates mainly to the industrial end market in Asia where the level of orders materializing towards the end of Q3 to learn of our Q4 backlog has been below our expectation. We confirm our 2023 net CapEx plan of about $4 billion.

對於 2023 年，我們第四季中期的指引意味著 2023 年淨收入約為 73 億美元。這意味著年增約7.3%，毛利率約48.1%。 73 億美元與我們 7 月底提供的指示範圍一致。中間值 1 億美元的差異主要與亞洲工業終端市場有關，根據我們第四季的積壓情況，第三季末實現的訂單水準低於我們的預期。我們確認 2023 年淨資本支出計畫約為 40 億美元。

To conclude, in September, the Supervisory Board asked me to be available for reappointment as a sole member of the Managing Board and President and CEO. I was very honored and pleased to accept the proposal. This will be proposed for shareholder approval at ST's 2024 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders.

最後，九月份，監事會要求我再次被任命為管理委員會唯一成員以及總裁兼執行長。我非常榮幸也很高興接受這個提議。該提案將在 ST 2024 年年度股東大會上提交給股東批准。

Thank you for your attention, and we are now ready to answer your questions.

感謝您的關注，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

The first question comes from the line of Didier Scemama with Bank of America.

第一個問題來自 Didier Scemama 與美國銀行的對話。

Maybe just a couple of questions, Jean-Marc, if I may, on Q4. If you could give us a sense of the various end markets. We're hearing obviously, weakening demand in industrial. I think in a conference earlier this year, you mentioned that you were fully booked for autos for 2024. So I wondered whether you could maybe talk also about the rest of the business next year. Any sort of early indication on revenue growth and also gross margins?

如果可以的話，也許只是關於第四季度的幾個問題，Jean-Marc。如果您能讓我們了解各個終端市場。我們明顯聽到工業需求疲軟。我想在今年早些時候的一次會議上，您提到 2024 年的汽車預訂已滿。所以我想知道您是否也可以談談明年的其餘業務。有關收入成長和毛利率的任何早期跡象嗎？

Well, for Q4, I repeat, clearly, we have seen on the industrial market, especially in China -- Asia, China, that the order booking, okay, entering in the lead time window were not materializing at our expectation. And it has mainly impacted the general-purpose microcontroller. But this is for Q4. But now, okay, we have to acknowledge altogether that we went back to normal in terms of lead time and capacity utilization for this kind of device and for semiconductor industry except very few product lines like silicon carbide as well.

好吧，對於第四季度，我清楚地重複一遍，我們在工業市場上看到，特別是在中國——亞洲、中國，訂單預訂，好吧，在交貨時間窗口內進入並沒有按照我們的預期實現。它主要影響了通用微控制器。但這是第四季的情況。但現在，好吧，我們必須承認，除了碳化矽等極少數產品線外，我們在此類設備和半導體行業的交貨時間和產能利用率方面已恢復正常。

About 2024, well, clearly, we have very good visibility for 2024 for Automotive. And for all, I have to say, the engaged customer program with our global strategic key accounts. Everywhere, we have, let's say, a custom-design product or where we have proliferated our product.

到 2024 年，顯然，我們對 2024 年汽車產業有很好的預見性。對於所有人，我不得不說，我們的全球策略大客戶參與的客戶計畫。比方說，我們在任何地方都有客製化設計的產品，或者我們已經擴大了我們的產品。

Model for, let's say, industrial market, both mass-market distribution and OEM. But now the visibility is limited. And for sure, customer, let's say, wait to the to put order, okay, when they are in the lead-time window. So we have to monitor very carefully the net in Q4 to understand, okay, or will be, let's say, next year for mass-market industrial, both for OEM and distribution.

比方說，工業市場的模型，包括大眾市場分銷和 OEM。但現在能見度有限。當然，客戶，比如說，等待下訂單，好吧，當他們處於交貨時間窗口時。因此，我們必須非常仔細地監控第四季度的網絡，以便了解，好吧，或者說，明年的大眾市場工業，無論是 OEM 還是分銷。

Well, if you want to classify next year very simply, but we are convinced that Automotive will go definitively because we have the visibility. And again, okay, the demand will be driven by the mobility, by the digitalization, by the pervasion of, let's say, the electronic in legacy application or it is based on the production volume that will remain around 85 million, 90 million vehicles.

好吧，如果你想非常簡單地對明年進行分類，但我們相信汽車將是明確的，因為我們有可見性。好吧，需求將由移動性、數位化、傳統應用中電子設備的普及所驅動，或者基於仍將保持在 8500 萬至 9000 萬輛汽車的產量。

We do believe that for Personal Electronics, we touched down some bottom in Q4 and next year, like-for-like because, okay, again, we have to remove the optical modules still present in '23. Like-for-like, okay, we will slightly grow. Well, then again, on industrial, the mass market and distribution, it's a bit early. So we have to monitor carefully what is happening in Q4 in terms of inventory. But it is clear that discussing with some customers, okay, they are assessing their end demand, they're assessing, okay, their inventory level. And this could also trigger some inventory correction both in Q4 and maybe early next year.

我們確實相信，對於個人電子產品，我們在第四季度和明年觸底，因為，好吧，我們必須再次刪除 23 年仍然存在的光學模組。類似的，好吧，我們會稍微成長。好吧，話又說回來，在工業、大眾市場和分銷方面，現在還為時過早。因此，我們必須仔細監控第四季的庫存情況。但很明顯，與一些客戶討論，好吧，他們正在評估他們的最終需求，他們正在評估他們的庫存水平。這也可能在第四季甚至明年初引發一些庫存調整。

Okay. Very well. And on the under loading of the fabs in Q4, is that -- where do you think your inventories will end up at the end of this year? And do you expect the under loading of fabs to carry on into the first half?

好的。很好。關於第四季度晶圓廠的負載不足，您認為今年年底您的庫存最終會在哪裡？您預計晶圓廠的負載不足會持續到上半年嗎？

So I'll let Lorenzo to answer.

那我就讓洛倫佐來回答吧。

Good morning, everybody. In respect to this quarter, we do expect, let's say, at the end of the year to be substantial in terms of inventory in the range of between 100 and 110 days, in the midpoint, 105 or something like that. So there will be a further decline in our inventory during this quarter. This, of course, is triggering as it's been already done in Q3 some unloading charges. These unloading charges in this quarter will impact, of course, our gross margin are fully embedded in our guidance.

大家早安。就本季而言，我們確實預計，到年底，庫存將在 100 到 110 天之間，中間為 105 天或類似的數量。所以本季我們的庫存將會進一步下降。當然，這正在觸發，因為在第三季已經完成了一些卸載費用。當然，本季的這些卸貨費用將影響我們的毛利率，這些費用已完全納入我們的指引中。

But as I said, for sure, let's say, for the gross margin of the evolution of the loading in respect to the next year, a lot will depend from what Jean-Marc said about the evolution of the market order entry for the industrial market. But we expect still some unloading charges continuing at least for the first half of next year.

但正如我所說，可以肯定的是，對於明年裝載演變的毛利率，很大程度上取決於讓-馬克所說的關於工業市場市場訂單輸入演變的內容。但我們預計至少在明年上半年仍會出現一些卸貨費用。

The next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安德魯‧加德納 (Andrew Gardiner)。

Just following on the cost side of things. Lorenzo, obviously, you've given us some clarity in terms of unloading and how you expect gross margin to track. But given how the end market is shaping up at the moment, what are your plans in terms of OpEx, I suppose, specifically for fourth quarter? Can you help us there in terms of the breakdown? And then perhaps just more generally into 2024, again, I understand you don't want to quantify things too much, but just sort of your initial thoughts in terms of OpEx trends into next year would be helpful as well.

只是關注成本方面。洛倫佐，顯然，您已經向我們明確了卸貨情況以及您預計毛利率的跟踪情況。但考慮到目前終端市場的情況，我想你們在營運支出方面有什麼計劃，特別是第四季的計劃？您能幫我們解決故障嗎？然後也許更普遍地進入 2024 年，我理解您不想過多量化事情，但您對明年營運支出趨勢的初步想法也會有所幫助。

Thank you for the question. In this quarter, the OpEx -- let's say, last quarter in Q3 OpEx came quite low in respect also to our expectation. But this is mainly driven, let's say, by the seasonality of Q3. You know that in Q3, we are impacted -- positively impacted in terms of cost by the vacation period, especially in Europe.

感謝你的提問。在本季度，營運支出－比方說，第三季度上個季度的營運支出也低於我們的預期。但這主要是由第三季的季節性因素所驅動的。您知道，在第三季度，我們受到了影響——假期期間的成本受到了積極影響，尤其是在歐洲。

Now looking at the current quarter. Our expectation in this quarter to have OpEx ranging between $950 million, $960 million. This is including, I remind you always, the other income and expenses. So let's call it net OpEx. This is increasing compared to the previous quarter, compared to the Q3. There is a lower level of grants -- R&D grants. I remind you that the level of grants in Q3 was quite high, also because there was a catch-up over the previous quarter for grants that were possible to be recognized during Q3.

現在看看當前季度。我們預計本季的營運支出將在 9.5 億美元至 9.6 億美元之間。我總是提醒您，這包括其他收入和支出。所以我們稱之為網路營運支出。與上一季相比，與第三季相比，這一數字有所增加。有一個較低等級的補助金－研發補助金。我提醒您，第三季的補助金水準相當高，也是因為第三季可能得到認可的補助比上一季有所追趕。

And then for sure, Q4 has, let's say, unfavorable seasonality in respect to the previous quarter. Well, this means that for this year, our average quarterly net OpEx will be something between $925 million and $930 million when we look at the full year.

可以肯定的是，第四季的季節性因素相對於上一季不利。嗯，這意味著今年我們的平均季度淨營運支出將在 9.25 億美元至 9.3 億美元之間。

For next year, of course, our OpEx will be in line with respect to the business evolution. We will maintain control on our operating expenses. For sure, we will continue to protect our R&D, and we will continue to protect our digital transformation programs.

當然，明年我們的營運支出將與業務發展保持一致。我們將保持對營運費用的控制。當然，我們將繼續保護我們的研發，我們將繼續保護我們的數位轉型計畫。

If I could also just follow up on the comment you've made in terms of seeing weakness start in the industrial space, particularly in China, and that it's affecting general-purpose microcontrollers. Clearly, I think that brings some flashbacks to September of 2018, where that was a part of the market that started to face troubles as we hit that particular downcycle. Things are a bit different this time around. But I'm just wondering how you're handling things, what you might be able to do a little bit differently this time around given that you're starting to see some of the same signs.

我還可以跟進您的評論，即看到工業領域（尤其是中國）開始出現疲軟，並且它正在影響通用微控制器。顯然，我認為這讓我們回想起 2018 年 9 月的情況，當時市場的一部分在我們遇到特定的下行週期時開始面臨麻煩。這次情況有點不同。但我只是想知道你是如何處理事情的，鑑於你開始看到一些相同的跡象，這次你可能會做一些不同的事情。

Compared to -- remember very well, 2018 and 2019. Well, first of all, okay, the overall economic situation and world is rather different. Here, I can only say fact, okay. Again, the dynamic in Q3 of order, when customers, okay, acknowledge the fact that they are entering the lead-time window were below our expectation. This is the fact number one.

與—記得很清楚，2018 年和 2019 年相比。首先，好吧，整體經濟狀況和世界是相當不同的。在這裡，我只能說事實，好吧。同樣，第三季的訂單動態，客戶承認他們進入的交貨時間窗口低於我們的預期。這是第一大事實。

Well, fact number two, yes, we discussed with our customers, OEM and distributor, especially in China. But this is also overall a bit global dynamic. We see our customers that are really reassessing their end demand. They are revisiting their sales and operating plan. And of course, okay, as we supported well from supply chain point of view, since, okay, Q4 2022, of course, okay, they will certainly readjust their inventory.

嗯，第二個事實，是的，我們與我們的客戶、原始設備製造商和分銷商進行了討論，特別是在中國。但這總體上也是一種全球動態。我們看到我們的客戶正在真正重新評估他們的最終需求。他們正在重新審視他們的銷售和營運計劃。當然，好吧，因為我們從供應鏈的角度提供了很好的支持，因為，好吧，2022 年第四季度，當然，好吧，他們肯定會重新調整庫存。

Then again from the other side for the industrial market, okay, clearly -- and that's the reason why I mentioned, okay, the registration STM32. The demand, okay, will be clearly driven by all application related to renewable energy generation, energy storage, power conversion, charging infrastructure for e-mobility, more factory automation and motor control, which are more related to CapEx. Well, this will be related to the overall economy. So that's the reason why we have to monitor it.

然後再從工業市場的另一面來看，好吧，很明顯——這就是我提到的原因，好吧，註冊STM32。好吧，需求顯然將受到與再生能源發電、能源儲存、電力轉換、電動車充電基礎設施、更多工廠自動化和馬達控制相關的所有應用的推動，這些應用與資本支出更相關。那麼這個就跟整體經濟有關係。這就是我們必須對其進行監控的原因。

More consumer application for the time being are still weak, okay, and discussing with our customers. They don't expect, okay, to have a strong recover before Q2 next year. So this is the situation that we have to monitor. And now, we know to do it, okay. We clearly monitor the order entry. We adapt our supply chain. And for sure, entering in generally, we will have a better visibility and moving forward as well.

更多的消費應用暫時還比較弱，好吧，正在跟客戶討論。他們預計明年第二季之前不會出現強勁復甦。所以這是我們必須監控的情況。現在，我們知道要這麼做了，好吧。我們清楚地監控訂單輸入。我們調整我們的供應鏈。可以肯定的是，總體而言，我們將擁有更好的知名度並繼續前進。

The next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Joshua Buchalter 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I wanted to ask about gross margins also. So I think last quarter, you had called out mix, start-up costs and underutilization as driving the sequential decline. As we go from the third quarter to the first quarter, is it all underutilization charges? Or are mix and start-up also playing a role here? And then as we think about exiting the year, you should have inventory at your target, but the first quarter is seasonally down. And so I'm wondering how would underutilization charges trend in the first quarter of the year under that dynamic where you're at your inventory level, but you're also seasonally down.

我還想問毛利率。因此，我認為上個季度，您曾指出混合、啟動成本和利用率不足是連續下降的原因。從第三季到第一季度，都是未充分利用費用嗎？或者混合和新創公司也在這裡發揮作用？然後，當我們考慮退出這一年時，您的庫存應該達到目標，但第一季出現季節性下降。因此，我想知道在庫存水準處於庫存水準但季節性下降的情況下，今年第一季的未充分利用費用趨勢如何。

No. As I was saying also before, yes, for sure, in Q4, we are impacted by some underutilization. You remember that we were preparing the year in the first half of 2023, let's say, expecting a stronger second part of the year -- second half of the year. So that was the reason why we were creating some inventory in order, let's say, to serve this expected demand that at this stage did not materialize, as you see from our guidance of the second half.

不。正如我之前所說，是的，當然，在第四季度，我們受到了一些利用率不足的影響。您還記得，我們​​在 2023 年上半年做準備，預計今年下半年（下半年）將會更加強勁。這就是為什麼我們要創建一些庫存，以便滿足現階段尚未實現的預期需求，正如您從我們下半年的指導中看到的那樣。

So this is the reason why we put under control our inventory. This is creating some unloading charges that we have in the second half of the year impacting our gross margin, bringing back to the level of days of inventory, as I was saying before, our, let's say -- I would say, standard normal level by year-end. It's something, as I said before, that will be ranging between 100 and -- max 100, but I think it will be closer to 100, 105 days of inventory.

這就是我們控制庫存的原因。這會產生一些卸貨費用，我們在今年下半年會影響我們的毛利率，使庫存天數回到我之前所說的水平，我們的，讓我們說，我會說，標準正常水平到年底。正如我之前所說，它的範圍在 100 到最多 100 之間，但我認為庫存將接近 100、105 天。

Moving on the next quarter in Q1 and in the first half, but a lot will depend on how the order entry will materialize during this quarter on especially for the industrial market. Because as was said that for Automotive, we have a quite clear visibility. Where, let's say, the visibility is less is on the industrial.

下一季和上半年將繼續，但很大程度上取決於本季訂單輸入將如何實現，尤其是工業市場。因為正如我們所說，對於汽車產業，我們有非常清晰的可見性。比方說，可見度較低的是工業領域。

But our expectation and still we will have some level of unloading in Q1 and probably also something in Q2. And the level of unloading in Q1 will be probably similar to the one that we have in this quarter.

但我們的預期是，第一季我們仍將有一定程度的卸載，第二季也可能會有一定程度的卸載。第一季的卸載水準可能與本季的卸載水準相似。

For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about silicon carbide. There's concerns given some slightly weaker commentary in your lead customer that silicon carbide growth could slow. Could you talk about the diversification efforts that you're undergoing? And in particular, how is your visibility into both -- into substrate supply, both externally and your internal vertical integration efforts going for next year?

對於我的後續行動，我想問有關碳化矽的問題。鑑於您的主要客戶對碳化矽成長可能放緩的評論稍微疲軟，人們擔心。您能談談您正在進行的多元化努力嗎？特別是，您對外部基板供應和明年內部垂直整合工作的可見性如何？

For us, next year would be, let's say, a step ahead, consistent with our objective to deliver $2 billion in 2025. And so we have the capacity installed. We have the supply chain secure. And we have the customer base and backlog consistent with this objective. And I will communicate, okay, at Q4 earnings and in January, the objective of silicon carbide revenue we would have next year. But be sure it will be a consistent step with the $2 billion objective of 2025.

對我們來說，明年將是領先一步，這與我們在 2025 年交付 20 億美元的目標是一致的。所以我們已經安裝了產能。我們的供應鏈是安全的。我們擁有符合此目標的客戶群和積壓訂單。我將在第四季財報和一月傳達我們明年碳化矽收入的目標。但可以肯定的是，這將與 2025 年 20 億美元的目標保持一致。

The next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

I have 2 questions. Firstly, this is the first quarter that we are seeing since the whole COVID period that you're seeing a year-on-year decline in terms of your guidance in the fourth quarter. How do you see this progressing? Clearly, you've seen the softness in the industrial space. First quarter is typically also a seasonally weak quarter for you. How do you see this progress on a quarter-to-quarter basis in the first and second quarter? Will you go back to growth in the first or second quarter of the year on a year-on-year basis?

我有 2 個問題。首先，這是自整個新冠疫情期間以來我們看到的第一個季度，第四季的指引年減。您如何看待這方面的進展？顯然，您已經看到了工業領域的疲軟。對您來說，第一季通常也是季節性疲軟的季度。您如何看待第一季和第二季的季比進展？今年第一季或第二季是否會恢復年成長？

And then my second question is regarding the mix of the product into next year as that really. Now you've lost some business in Personal Electronics, and maybe that goes up a little, as you said. But Automotive will be a larger part of it. So will the mix overall help the gross margin into next year? Or is it that the underutilization charges continue and so that the gross margin is more going to be driven by underutilization charges rather than product mix?

然後我的第二個問題是關於明年的產品組合確實如此。現在您失去了一些個人電子產品業務，正如您所說，也許這個業務會上升。但汽車將佔其中更大的一部分。那麼，這種組合總體上會有助於明年的毛利率嗎？或者說，未充分利用費用繼續存在，因此毛利率更多是由未充分利用費用而不是產品組合驅動的？

Thank you, Sandeep, for your question. So for next year, I repeat what we see. Again, for the visibility is very clear, again, on Automotive and where we will grow next year. And on the -- every quarter, we will grow year-over-year, I have to say. For Engage customer program, it's exactly the same. And I repeat with our strategic accounts, so whatever are related to Personal Electronics but also to communication equipment, where we have all this important program. So we have the full visibility.

謝謝桑迪普的提問。因此，對於明年，我會重複我們所看到的。同樣，因為汽車領域以及我們明年的成長方向的可見度非常清晰。我不得不說，每個季度我們都會逐年成長。對於吸引客戶計劃，情況完全相同。我重複一下我們的策略客戶，所以無論是與個人電子產品還是通訊設備相關的東西，我們都有所有這些重要的項目。所以我們有完整的可見性。

And again, on Personal Electronics, like-for-like, okay, we should grow. Communication equipment and computer peripheral, now here, I have to say that next year will be a transition year because we will think also step by step our legacy activity where we want to be no more present. It is basically enterprise communication. But we will accelerate with our Engage customer program with SpaceX, Starlink and the other opportunity we won.

再說一次，在個人電子產品上，同樣，好吧，我們應該成長。通訊設備和電腦週邊設備，現在在這裡，我不得不說明年將是一個過渡年，因為我們也會一步步思考我們不想再存在的遺留活動。它基本上是企業通訊。但我們將加快與 SpaceX、Starlink 和我們贏得的其他機會合作的 Engage 客戶計畫。

Well, the important question is mass-market distribution and industrial OEM. But you know this market is fragmented. Yes, Q4 is a sign that, again, I repeat, we discuss with customers. They are revisiting assessing their end demand because it is related to the overall economy. It is related also to the Automotive. Of course, okay, making the shipment, it could trigger some statutory adjustments for inventory adjustment. It's difficult now to assess how long it will last. So this is what I can say. That's the reason why I say very candidly that Q4 for industrial and mass market will be very key to understand the dynamics. So this is what I can say at this moment.

嗯，重要的問題是大眾市場分銷和工業 OEM。但你知道這個市場是分散的。是的，第四季是一個跡象，我再次重複，我們與客戶討論。他們正在重新評估最終需求，因為它與整體經濟有關。它也與汽車相關。當然，好吧，發貨後，可能會觸發一些庫存調整的法定調整。現在很難評估它會持續多久。這就是我能說的。這就是為什麼我非常坦白說，工業和大眾市場的第四季將是了解動態的關鍵。這就是我此刻能說的話。

And there was a question on the group.

還有一個關於小組的問題。

The mix, I think, somehow Jean-Marc was answering giving us some color. Of course, let's say, no doubt that when we look the industrial market for us is very accretive. So it means that depending on the way that this will evolve will, of course, being positive for our gross margin in respect to the -- what is now in Q4.

我認為，讓-馬克以某種方式回答了這個問題，給了我們一些色彩。當然，毫無疑問，當我們看到工業市場對我們來說是非常有增值作用的。因此，這意味著，根據具體的發展方式，當然會對我們第四季的毛利率產生正面影響。

With respect to Personal Electronics, well, here, actually, we have not lost anything here. The reality is a change of the architecture, which we are present. So it means that at the end, we have not any longer the optical module. But we have, let's say, silicon inside. For us, it's positive in terms of gross margin mix. And let's put in this way, not in the revenues, of course, because the is different. But definitely in terms of the gross margin is positive.

就個人電子產品而言，實際上，我們並沒有失去任何東西。現實是我們所處的架構發生了變化。所以這意味著到最後我們就不再擁有光模組了。但我們裡面有矽。對我們來說，就毛利率組合而言，這是正面的。當然，讓我們這樣說，不是收入，因為這是不同的。但就毛利率而言絕對是正數。

Okay. Did we answer your questions, Sandeep?

好的。我們回答你的問題了嗎，桑迪普？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc with Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自 Aleksander Peterc 與法國興業銀行的關係。

My first question would be really on what we should expect on the price fronts. Usually, if I remember well, you had in the first quarter some customary price declines every year. So that was a little bit of a pressure on gross margins in Q1. That didn't really happen in this year because of the general price increases. But is the normal pricing pattern sector return in '24 in the first quarter? And then I have a quick follow-up.

我的第一個問題實際上是關於我們在價格方面應該期待什麼。通常，如果我沒記錯的話，每年第一季都會出現一些慣例價格下降。因此，這對第一季的毛利率造成了一些壓力。由於價格普遍上漲，今年這種情況並沒有真正發生。但正常的定價模式產業會在24年第一季回歸嗎？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Now about price, okay, and Lorenzo will comment, okay. What I can say, basically, I already said in April. We saw some price effect, okay, in distribution, which is normal, okay. When you go back normal, let's say, situation in terms of supply, POS, POP that you are well balanced, okay, between demand and offer. You go back to normal, let's say, price effect, okay. Let's say, low single digits on a yearly basis, okay?

現在談談價格，好吧，洛倫佐會發表評論，好吧。我能說的基本上我在四月就已經說過了。我們在分銷中看到了一些價格效應，這是正常的，好吧。當你恢復正常時，比如說，供應、POS、POP 方面的情況，你在需求和供給之間達到了很好的平衡。你回到正常狀態，比如說價格效應，好。比方說，每年低個位數，好嗎？

We know it, okay. Everybody know it. This is something which is attacking the semiconductor industry. So generally speaking, it starts on distribution. So we have seen it in April, okay? We see it in Q3, and we will see it in Q4, clearly. Then for the rest, okay, there is no specific, okay, price effect and price pressure from customer. We have contract, okay. We have new products, okay, we have engaged customer program. There is no surprise, okay? There is coming back to a normal situation. More than that, okay, I cannot comment.

我們知道，好吧。每個人都知道。這是對半導體產業的攻擊。所以一般來說，它是從分發開始的。所以我們在四月就已經看到了，好嗎？我們將在第三季度看到這一點，並將在第四季度清楚地看到這一點。那麼剩下的，好吧，沒有具體的，好吧，價格影響和來自客戶的價格壓力。我們有合同，好吧。我們有新產品，好吧，我們有參與的客戶計劃。沒有什麼意外吧？情況正在恢復正常。除此之外，好吧，我無法發表評論。

And a quick follow-up. Just on Automotive, where you have very good visibility. Can you tell me if excluding silicon carbide, is your Automotive business set to grow meaningfully next year or not?

並快速跟進。就汽車而言，您的能見度非​​常好。您能否告訴我，如果排除碳化矽，您的汽車業務明年是否會出現有意義的成長？

Yes.

是的。

Meaningfully? Okay.

有意義嗎？好的。

Yes. well understood. So if I remove silicon carbide, yes.

是的。完全了解。所以如果我去除碳化矽，是的。

The next question comes from the line of Francois Bouvignies with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Francois Bouvignies。

So I wanted to follow up on Alek's question on Automotive. I mean, this quarter, you delivered 30% growth. I mean, if you look at TSMC, it was down 11% year-over-year, recalling that the industry is going through an inventory correction. And also, I'm sure you saw as well the macro data with OEMs. Orders for auto is coming down significantly, especially in Europe.

所以我想跟進 Alek 關於汽車的問題。我的意思是，本季度您實現了 30% 的成長。我的意思是，如果你看看台積電，你會發現它比去年同期下降了 11%，這表明該行業正在經歷庫存調整。而且，我相信您也看到了原始設備製造商的宏觀數據。汽車訂單大幅下降，尤其是在歐洲。

We also saw GM and Honda with pushouts of EVs. So it seems to be very different than what you report and also what you say into next year, what you just said. So I'm just wondering, do you see anything? Or is your guidance factoring some maybe EV penetration slowdown into next year? Because I guess it's something that you would see that happening. Or it's just your lead times so long that basically you don't see it yet? I'm just trying to reconcile basically what we see on the ground and what you are delivering and how it can be disconnected, if you see what I mean.

我們還看到通用汽車和本田推出了電動車。因此，這似乎與您報告的內容以及您對明年所說的內容、您剛才所說的內容有很大不同。所以我只是想知道，你看到什麼了嗎？或者您的指導考慮到明年電動車普及率可能會放緩？因為我猜你會看到這種情況發生。或者只是您的交貨時間太長以至於您基本上還沒有看到它？我只是想基本上協調我們在實地看到的情況和您正在提供的內容以及如何將其斷開，如果您明白我的意思的話。

Perfectly. I see there is no disconnection. Now if your question is this year, basically at 17.3%, the Automotive segment we support basically will grow 36%. Well, clearly, also embedded in this fantastic growth, but there is a specific item which are related to the period of shortage that ST has benefited in 2023 was a capacity fee reservation and which is quite material.

完美。我看到沒有斷開連接。現在，如果你的問題是今年，基本上是 17.3%，我們支持的汽車領域基本上將成長 36%。嗯，顯然，這也體現在這種驚人的增長中，但有一個與 ST 在 2023 年受益的短缺期相關的具體項目是容量費預訂，這是相當重要的。

However, even if you remove this effect on our growth performance, our Automotive segment in 2023, okay, basically will grow 28%. So next year, I have to say that this capacity fee reservation will be still present, but in, let's say, less order of magnitude than 2023. And it's normal because, okay, exceptional product line. Now we have the capability to better support the carmaker through the Tier 1 or directly.

然而，即使消除這種對我們成長業績的影響，我們的汽車業務到 2023 年基本上也會成長 28%。因此，明年，我不得不說，這種容量費用預留仍將存在，但比 2023 年的數量級要小。這是正常的，因為，好的，卓越的產品線。現在我們有能力透過一級或直接更好地支持汽車製造商。

Well, then the Tier 1 and the carmaker, they are acknowledging as well that we are reducing our lead time and reducing our lead time. But step after step, okay, we could see booking order with a book-to-bill below 1 on Automotive, simply the fact that they will stop to load 18 months in advance and 24 in advance. And we could anticipate that in 2025, okay, instead to have a 100% backlog coverage, we will be maybe 80% backlog coverage. So this is a trend we are seeing, point number one.

那麼，一級供應商和汽車製造商也承認我們正在縮短交貨時間並縮短交貨時間。但一步一步，好吧，我們可以看到汽車領域的訂單出貨比低於 1，事實上，他們將提前 18 個月和提前 24 個月停止裝載。我們可以預計，到 2025 年，我們可能會達到 80% 的積壓覆蓋率，而不是 100% 的積壓覆蓋率。這是我們看到的第一點趨勢。

Point number two, well, I'm sorry again, with all the respect I have with TSMC, they have a partial view of automotive, okay? We have the full spectrum of product portfolio to see what is happening in automotive. And I confirm to you that except so like-for-like without the silicon carbide, we will grow. For sure, we will not grow at 28%. We will grow significantly but not at 28%. This I can confirm to you.

第二點，好吧，我再次感到抱歉，儘管我對台積電充滿尊重，但他們對汽車的看法有偏頗，好嗎？我們擁有全方位的產品組合，可以了解汽車領域正在發生的事情。我向你們確認，除了沒有碳化矽的情況下，我們還會成長。當然，我們不會以 28% 的速度成長。我們將大幅成長，但不會達到 28%。這一點我可以向你確認。

So as a takeaway, I can tell you that, yes, next year, we will have a little bit benefit less on capacity fee reservation. We will see our customers acknowledging our capability in '24 to better deliver with shorter lead time. So normally, they are booking will, let's say, a decline in order to adjust themselves to this fact. So we will expect to enter in '25 with 80% coverage on Automotive. So this is the point number two.

因此，作為外賣，我可以告訴你，是的，明年，我們在容量費用預訂方面的好處將會減少一些。我們將看到我們的客戶認可我們在 '24 年以更短的交貨時間更好地交付的能力。因此，通常情況下，他們的預訂量會下降，以便適應這一事實。因此，我們預計到 25 年，汽車領域的覆蓋率將達到 80%。這是第二點。

Point number three, we will grow overall in '24. And it is based on stable production car volume that we consider around 85 million. But yes, the feedback we have from our customers and the feedback there is from analysts is next year is more than 90 million vehicles produced. This is not the base of our forecast.

第三點，我們將在 24 年實現整體成長。這是基於穩定的汽車產量，我們認為約為 8500 萬輛。但是，是的，我們從客戶和分析師那裡得到的回饋是，明年的汽車產量將超過 9,000 萬輛。這不是我們預測的基礎。

But then point number 3, I repeat, okay, this year is 11 million to 12 million of battery-based electrical vehicle. Next year, we can expect, okay, to go well above 15 million again. So this will call for a big demand for power electronics and micro. Then, okay, you have the change of architecture that are coming from the old definitively. And then the customer, having acknowledged that we can better supply, they come back to better sophistication of the legacy. So there is more and more semiconductor and electronics in legacy applications. So all in all, this is building a scenario for next year of growth for Automotive, for ST, taking into account the portfolio we have.

但第三點，我再說一遍，今年有 1,100 萬至 1,200 萬輛電池電動車。明年，我們預計將再次遠遠超過 1500 萬。因此，這將對電力電子和微電子產生巨大的需求。然後，好吧，你肯定會看到舊架構的變化。然後，客戶在承認我們可以提供更好的供應後，他們又回到了更先進的傳統。因此，遺留應用中的半導體和電子產品越來越多。總而言之，考慮到我們擁有的產品組合，這正在為汽車業和意法半導體明年的成長構建一個場景。

Great. Very clear, Jean-Marc. And maybe my follow-up would be on the CapEx. I mean, as we see the orders, I mean, excluding autos, a bit uncertain and the utilization charges, how do you think about the budget of your CapEx next year? And obviously, I don't expect you to give your CapEx. I mean you can if you want. But is it something that you review given the current situation that maybe delay some of the project or CapEx? I mean, how flexible do you want to be on your CapEx side given the current environment? That's -- yes, that's the second question.

偉大的。非常清楚，讓-馬克。也許我的後續行動是資本支出。我的意思是，當我們看到訂單時，我的意思是，不包括汽車，有點不確定和使用費用，您如何看待明年的資本支出預算？顯然，我不希望您提供資本支出。我的意思是，如果你願意的話，你可以。但考慮到目前的情況，您是否會審查這可能會延遲部分項目或資本支出的事情？我的意思是，考慮到當前的環境，您希望資本支出有多大的彈性？那是——是的，這是第二個問題。

No, I mean we are running, let's say, every 2 months, okay, let's say, 2 years SNOP with different scenario and so on and so forth. I can confirm to you that we have the flexibility, okay, to adjust our CapEx. And yes, in some circumstances, okay, where there is, okay, not on Automotive, I let not on our global key account engage customer program but on mass-market distribution and, let's say, small OEMs, some uncertainty that we have to monitor that the CapEx we will spend next year will be below the CapEx we have spent this year.

不，我的意思是我們每 2 個月運行一次，好吧，比如說，2 年 SNOP 有不同的場景，依此類推。我可以向您確認，我們可以靈活地調整我們的資本支出。是的，在某些情況下，好吧，好吧，不是在汽車領域，我不讓我們的全球大客戶參與客戶計劃，而是在大眾市場分銷方面，比如說小型原始設備製造商，我們必須採取一些不確定性監控我們明年花費的資本支出將低於我們今年花費的資本支出。

The next question comes from the line of Stephane Houri with ODDO BHF.

下一個問題來自 Stephane Houri 和 ODDO BHF 的對話。

Actually, the question is about the Chinese market and the competition you may face there because if you listen to the large equipment manufacturers, basically, they are selling a lot of machines, and those machines are probably going to be used to manufacture to build chips for automotive. So how do you see this happening? Is it putting a bit more pressure? Is it changing your plans? And I have a follow-up.

實際上，問題是關於中國市場以及你在那裡可能面臨的競爭，因為如果你聽大型設備製造商的說法，基本上，他們正在銷售大量機器，而這些機器可能將用於製造晶片用於汽車。那麼您如何看待這種情況的發生呢？是不是壓力有點大了？它會改變你的計劃嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Let's thank you, Stephane. I think I sometime already answered this question. We have initiated now since 2 years, some, let's say, diversification in our source of microcontroller but analog as well, including power analog BCD or silicon carbide, okay, with our joint venture with. We will use the cases -- we will take benefits of this investment done in China to produce, okay, our microcontroller.

讓我們謝謝你，史蒂芬。我想我曾經回答過這個問題。兩年來，我們已經開始實現微控制器來源的多元化，但也包括模擬來源，包括功率模擬 BCD 或碳化矽，好吧，與我們的合資企業。我們將利用這些案例——我們將利用在中國的投資來生產我們的微控制器。

And as I said during my address, we are building -- and we have already built, I have to say, an infrastructure in China to support this market. So foundry, we will use local foundry for microcontroller, including paneling some of our technology. We have already built competence center to address the high-growing application, so power energy, motor control, robotics, all this kind of stuff.

正如我在演講中所說，我們正在建設——我不得不說，我們已經在中國建立了基礎設施來支持這個市場。所以代工廠，我們將使用本地代工廠來生產微控制器，包括鑲板我們的一些技術。我們已經建立了能力中心來解決高成長的應用，例如電力能源、電機控制、機器人技術，所有這些東西。

So we have reinforced our application engineers. We have a deep relationship, okay, with a distributor for demand creation and they are higher lot of application energy. So -- and then we have our ecosystem of the STM32 that we complete, okay, with all the different feature of connectivity and AI.

所以我們加強了我們的應用工程師。我們與分銷商有著深厚的關係，可以創造需求，他們的應用能量更高。那麼，我們就擁有了完整的 STM32 生態系統，具有連接和人工智慧的所有不同功能。

So in fact, we will -- we are competing in China like Chinese but stacking our ecosystem and our wide portfolio, which is the widest portfolio of STM32 and against competition, but there is Chinese. But we sole source American. So it's competition, as usual, I have to say. But yes, we have adapted ourselves step after step since 2, 3 years when we have seen this trend to take advantage of the investments that are done in China.

所以事實上，我們會——我們像中國人一樣在中國競爭，但堆疊了我們的生態系統和廣泛的產品組合，這是STM32最廣泛的產品組合，並且對抗競爭，但有中國人。但我們只從美國採購。所以我不得不說，像往常一樣，這就是競爭。但是，是的，自從兩三年以來，當我們看到這種趨勢以利用在中國進行的投資時，我們已經一步一步地調整了自己。

Okay. Very clear. And then the follow-up is that maybe you have heard that one of your big European competitor has said that even with a flat car market, they will grow more than 10%, basically. They said low teens. I guess with that with all the things that you -- all the elements that you've given for next year, this statement would apply probably to you also, right?

好的。非常清楚。接下來是，也許你聽過你的歐洲主要競爭對手之一說過，即使汽車市場平坦，他們基本上也會成長 10% 以上。他們說的是低青少年。我想，考慮到您為明年提供的所有內容，這個陳述可能也適用於您，對嗎？

I will give you indication only next year.

我只會在明年給你指示。

The next question comes from the line of Jerome Ramel with BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 (BNP Paribas Exane) 的 Jerome Ramel。

First question, Jean-Marc, if I look at whatever your SAM is going to be, and I understand the lack of visibility, can you share with us what you think about your own market share trajectory versus your SAM? And the reason I'm asking is because if I look at your Q4 guidance, I think for the first time in maybe 20 years, you have higher review than one of your largest competitors in the U.S. So first, to understand the dynamic of your market share gain for the coming years and how much of that is embedded in your guidance or target of reaching $20 billion revenue between 2025 and 2027?

第一個問題，Jean-Marc，如果我看看您的 SAM 將會是什麼，並且我知道缺乏可見性，您能否與我們分享一下您對自己的市場份額軌跡與 SAM 的看法？我問這個問題的原因是，如果我看一下你們的第四季度指引，我認為這可能是20 年來的第一次，你們的評價比你們在美國最大的競爭對手之一更高。所以首先，要了解你們的動態未來幾年的市場份額增長以及您在 2025 年至 2027 年間實現 200 億美元收入的指導或目標中包含了多少增長？

Well, thank you for -- to have taken not potentially in Q4 if we deliver the midpoint of our outlook and our main competitor delivers per range, we will be able above. Thank you, it's good, but it is not the most important, okay? Yes, certainly, this year, we'll increase our market share, most likely because we know that WSTS will make a revision in November. So we will see what will be the market. For the time being, as I said, in August, SAM should grow 3.4%. So as by fact, we will grow 7%. So means we will win market share.

好吧，謝謝你——如果我們實現了我們前景的中點並且我們的主要競爭對手實現了每個範圍的中點，那麼我們將能夠在第四季度實現上述目標。謝謝，這很好，但這不是最重要的，好嗎？是的，當然，今年我們會增加我們的市場份額，很可能是因為我們知道 WSTS 將在 11 月進行修訂。所以我們將看看市場會是什麼樣子。正如我所說，目前 8 月 SAM 應該會成長 3.4%。事實上，我們將成長 7%。這意味著我們將贏得市場份額。

We have other indication from India that our SAM, okay, this year will grow 1%. So this is confirming. So when I take this data, I have to say that this year, we will win market share. And again, it has been mainly driven by our capability to grow in Automotive, to grow in silicon carbide. Clearly, $1.2 billion is quite material.

我們從印度得到其他跡象表明，我們的 SAM 今年將成長 1%。所以這是確認的。所以當我拿這個數據的時候，我必須說，今年，我們會贏得市場佔有率。同樣，這主要是由我們在汽車領域、碳化矽領域的成長能力所推動的。顯然，12 億美元是相當重要的。

We have taken benefits of this capacity reservation. We have been heavily impacted by the Personal Electronic definitively. But as everybody -- okay, no more than everybody. Until okay, Q3, for sure, the industrial mass market was solid. But now, okay, we are entering this period.

我們已經從這種容量預留中受益。我們確實受到個人電子產品的嚴重影響。但作為每個人——好吧，不要超過每個人。可以肯定的是，直到第三季度，工業大眾市場都是穩固的。但現在，好吧，我們正在進入這個時期。

About next year, it's difficult again to say today. But our ambition is to continue to win year after year market share driven by a new product in production, technology, differentiation. Well, yes, I confirm the $20 billion-plus model in terms of revenue. But in the time frame we indicated, '25 to '27. More clearly, '24 will be a transition period to this model, clearly.

關於明年，今天又很難說。但我們的目標是在新產品的生產、技術和差異化的推動下，繼續年復一年地贏得市場份額。嗯，是的，我確認了收入超過 200 億美元的模式。但在我們指出的時間範圍內，'25 至 '27。更明確的是，24 年將是該模式的過渡期。

And just to make sure, you're confirming also the gross margin target of 50%?

為了確定一下，您還確認了 50% 的毛利率目標嗎？

Yes, we confirm the model, yes.

是的，我們確認型號，是的。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up question on silicon carbide. There were the rumors that you might need another silicon carbide fab in the French neater. I don't know if you can confirm or not. But maybe another way to ask the question, with the current capacity you have, how much revenues can you target with the current capacity, including the front-end JV?

好的。也許只是關於碳化矽的後續問題。有傳言稱，您可能需要在法國尼特建立另一座碳化矽工廠。不知道你能否證實。但也許可以用另一種方​​式來問這個問題，以您目前的產能，您可以利用當前產能（包括前端合資企業）實現多少收入目標？

Well, clearly, with the manufacturing footprint we have today installed where we can support, okay, above the $2 billion of $25 billion. So this is a good news, point number one. Today, as you know, we are concentrating to ramp up our raw material fab in Catania in order to achieve as soon as we can 40% of internal production. It will be a good cost driver.

嗯，很明顯，憑藉我們今天安裝的製造足跡，我們可以支持超過 20 億至 250 億美元的資金。所以這是一個好消息，第一點。如您所知，今天我們正專注於擴大我們在卡塔尼亞的原材料工廠的規模，以便盡快實現 40% 的內部生產。這將是一個很好的成本驅動因素。

But then if -- we plan to go well above $5 billion between '28 to 2030. And this is clear that we will need to have, okay, 2 additional fab. One in China that will support the Chinese market. So this is the JV we have just set up. And progress are moving very well, and I will visit them very soon. More then we will decide on timely when we have to build another fab. And of course, we will communicate. But for sure, to go well above $5 billion between '28 to 2030, we need Salad and another fab.

但如果——我們計劃在 28 年到 2030 年期間將遠遠超過 50 億美元。很明顯，我們將需要擁有 2 座額外的晶圓廠。在中國支持中國市場的公司。這就是我們剛成立的合資企業。進展非常順利，我很快就會去拜訪他們。然後我們會及時決定何時需要再建造一座晶圓廠。當然，我們會溝通。但可以肯定的是，要在 28 年到 2030 年期間實現遠超 50 億美元的目標，我們需要 Salad 和另一家晶圓廠。

The next question comes from the line of Simon Coles with Barclays.

下一個問題來自西蒙·科爾斯（Simon Coles）與巴克萊銀行（Barclays）的關係。

You talked about underutilization charges, but you didn't split out Agrate. So I was just wondering if you can confirm Agrate's sort of peak drag in 4Q, and we can continue to expect that to improve in 2024 and be accretive in the second half of '24.

您談到了未充分利用費用，但您沒有拆分 Agrate。因此，我只是想知道您是否可以確認 Agrate 在第四季度的峰值阻力，我們可以繼續期望這種情況在 2024 年有所改善，並在 24 年下半年有所增加。

Yes. The plan for the 300-millimeter in Agrate is substantially unchanged. It's true that this year and in the first part of next year, Agrate will not be accretive. At this stage, we can confirm that Agrate will start to be neutral and then to be, let's say, adding a positive contribution starting the second part of next year and Q4 and then definitely in 2025, yes.

是的。阿格拉特 300 毫米的計劃基本上沒有改變。確實，今年和明年上半年，Agrate不會增值。在這個階段，我們可以確認 Agrate 將開始保持中立，然後從明年下半年和第四季度開始增加正面貢獻，然後肯定是在 2025 年，是的。

And can I just quickly clarify? The 130 basis points impact on gross margin in 4Q, that doesn't include the drag from Agrate?

我可以快速澄清一下嗎？第四季毛利率下降130個基點，這還不包括Agrate的拖累？

No, it's only the impact of the unloading tranches.

不，這只是卸載批次的影響。

Thank you very much. Very short. Thank you very much, Simon. I think that now this is the last question, and we can conclude the call.

非常感謝。很短。非常感謝你，西蒙。我認為現在這是最後一個問題，我們可以結束通話了。

Thank you. Thank you, everybody.

謝謝。謝謝大家。

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

非常感謝。再見。

Bye.

再見。