(SPOT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Spotify's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Bryan Goldberg, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, Mr. Goldberg.

早上好，歡迎收看 Spotify 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Bryan Goldberg。謝謝你。請繼續，戈德堡先生。

Thanks, operator, and welcome to Spotify's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today will be Daniel Ek, our CEO; and Paul Vogel, our CFO. We'll start with opening comments from Daniel and Paul and afterwards, we'll be happy to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝接線員，歡迎來到 Spotify 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天加入我們的是我們的首席執行官 Daniel Ek；和我們的首席財務官 Paul Vogel。我們將從 Daniel 和 Paul 的開放評論開始，之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）

Before we begin, let me quickly cover the safe harbor. During this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements, including projections or estimates about the future performance of the company. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed on today's call, in our letter to shareholders and in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，讓我快速介紹一下安全港。在此次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括對公司未來業績的預測或估計。這些陳述基於受風險和不確定因素影響的當前預期和假設。由於在今天的電話會議、我們致股東的信中以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

During this call, we'll also refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures. Reconciliations between our IFRS and non-IFRS financial measures can be found in our letter to shareholders, in the financial section of our Investor Relations website and also furnished today on Form 6-K.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將參考某些非 IFRS 財務指標。我們的 IFRS 和非 IFRS 財務措施之間的對賬可以在我們致股東的信中找到，在我們的投資者關係網站的財務部分，也可以在今天的 6-K 表格中找到。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Daniel.

有了這個，我會把它交給丹尼爾。

All right. Hey, everyone and happy new year and thanks for joining us. We had a great Q4 and ended 2022 strongly. Our user and subscriber numbers continue to climb, showing the value of our investments in the platform over the past few years. We're now in an even stronger competitive position, and I'm confident in our future prospects. And I'll let Paul fill in on more of the specific details. However, a notable call out in the quarter was our eighth annual Wrapped campaign, which was a big contributor to our Q4 success, and we broke all sorts of records and reached several all-time highs with an increase of over 30% in user engagements. Wrapped was trending all over social media, but it wasn't just about Wrapped. So by the end of the year, we had more than 100 million tracks on our platform and more than 5 million podcasts and more than 300,000 audio books being enjoyed by almost 0.5 billion listeners.

好的。大家好，新年快樂，感謝您加入我們。我們有一個很棒的第四季度，並以強勁的勢頭結束了 2022 年。我們的用戶和訂戶數量繼續攀升，顯示了過去幾年我們對該平台的投資價值。我們現在處於更強大的競爭地位，我對我們的未來前景充滿信心。我會讓 Paul 填寫更多具體細節。然而，本季度值得注意的是我們的第八次年度 Wrapped 活動，這是我們第四季度成功的重要貢獻者，我們打破了各種記錄並達到了多個歷史新高，用戶參與度增加了 30% 以上. Wrapped 在社交媒體上風靡一時，但它不僅僅與 Wrapped 有關。因此，到今年年底，我們的平台上有超過 1 億首曲目，超過 500 萬個播客和超過 300,000 本有聲讀物被近 5 億聽眾欣賞。

In 2021, we said that 2022 would be an investment year, and it was. And in light of our recent news on cost and staff reductions, I'm sure some of you are wondering if we believe that, that investment was a mistake. And the answer is, no and yes. I still believe it was the right call to invest, and I would do it again. So for instance, in the last 12 months, we grew our users substantially, enhanced our capabilities, developed a better product and brought more content to creators and users around the world. And we also made tremendous strides in setting Spotify Park from everyone else in our space.

在 2021 年，我們說 2022 年將是投資年，確實如此。鑑於我們最近關於削減成本和裁員的消息，我敢肯定你們中的一些人想知道我們是否相信那項投資是錯誤的。答案是，不，是。我仍然相信這是正確的投資呼籲，我會再做一次。例如，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們大幅增加了用戶，增強了我們的能力，開發了更好的產品，並為世界各地的創作者和用戶帶來了更多內容。我們在設置 Spotify Park 方面也取得了巨大進步，與我們空間中的其他人不同。

In addition, my expectation was never that these investments would have a great impact in the short term, yet they have. But more importantly, for our share owners, I fully expect that they will continue to pay dividends in the months and years to come. But things change, and the macro environment has changed significantly in the last year. And in hindsight, I probably got a little carried away and overinvested relative to the uncertainty we saw shaping up in the market.

此外，我從來沒有期望這些投資會在短期內產生巨大影響，但它們確實產生了。但更重要的是，對於我們的股東，我完全預計他們將在未來數月和數年內繼續支付股息。但世事變遷，去年宏觀環境發生了明顯變化。事後看來，相對於我們在市場上看到的不確定性，我可能有點得意忘形並過度投資了。

So we are shifting to focus on tightening our spend and becoming more efficient. This remains consistent with the plan we outlined at Investor Day, but you should expect us to execute on it with even greater intensity given what I just said. However, to be clear, this doesn't mean we're changing our strategy. We will continue to work to build the platform of the future, and that will take investment in new opportunities that we outlined like podcasts and audio books. And if anything, thanks to our position in users and subs, this should allow us to both increase revenue per user over time as well as improve our stickiness with consumers even more.

因此，我們正在將重點轉移到收緊支出和提高效率上。這與我們在投資者日概述的計劃保持一致，但鑑於我剛才所說的，您應該期待我們以更大的力度執行它。然而，需要明確的是，這並不意味著我們正在改變我們的戰略。我們將繼續努力構建未來的平台，這將投資於我們概述的新機會，如播客和有聲讀物。而且，如果有的話，由於我們在用戶和訂閱者中的地位，這應該使我們能夠隨著時間的推移增加每個用戶的收入，並進一步提高我們與消費者的粘性。

But going forward, we will do it with an intense focus on efficiency, and that marks a pretty big shift in how we will act.

但展望未來，我們將高度關注效率，這標誌著我們的行動方式發生了相當大的轉變。

And to meet this objective, we are also rethinking how we operate. We've set up a new org structure that streamlines decision-making and prioritizes the speed and efficiency. 2023 marks a new chapter for us, but our commitment to achieving our goals remains the same. And I'm really optimistic about the direction we're headed in, and we'll continue to focus my efforts on guiding the long-term success of the company.

為了實現這一目標，我們也在重新思考我們的運營方式。我們已經建立了一個新的組織結構來簡化決策並優先考慮速度和效率。 2023 年標誌著我們的新篇章，但我們實現目標的承諾保持不變。我對我們前進的方向非常樂觀，我們將繼續集中精力指導公司的長期成功。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Paul to go deeper into the numbers, and then Bryan will open it up to the Q&A.

有了這個，我會把它交給 Paul 來更深入地研究數字，然後 Bryan 會打開它進行問答。

Thanks, Daniel, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. I'd like to add a bit more color on the quarter and then touch upon the broader performance of the business and our outlook.

謝謝 Daniel，也謝謝大家加入我們。我想在本季度添加更多色彩，然後談談更廣泛的業務表現和我們的前景。

Let's start with Q4. User growth was very strong in the quarter. Total monthly active users grew to 489 million in Q4. This was 10 million ahead of guidance, up 33 million quarter-over-quarter and the largest Q4 net additions in our history.

讓我們從第四季度開始。本季度用戶增長非常強勁。第四季度每月活躍用戶總數增長到 4.89 億。這比指引提前 1000 萬，環比增加 3300 萬，是我們歷史上最大的第四季度淨增。

Moving to premium. We finished the quarter with 205 million subscribers, 3 million ahead of guidance, thanks to broad-based strength across several regions, particularly Latin America. Our revenue grew 18% year-on-year to approximately EUR 3.2 billion in the quarter. Reported results were aided by a 600 basis point currency benefit. However, this was 200 basis points less than forecast. So while reported revenue was a touch below forecast, our organic growth on a currency-neutral basis modestly outperformed due primarily to advertising.

轉向溢價。本季度結束時，我們擁有 2.05 億訂戶，比預期提前 300 萬，這要歸功於多個地區（尤其是拉丁美洲）的廣泛實力。本季度我們的收入同比增長 18% 至約 32 億歐元。報告的結果得益於 600 個基點的貨幣收益。然而，這比預期低了 200 個基點。因此，雖然報告的收入略低於預期，但我們在貨幣中性基礎上的有機增長略微優於預期，這主要歸功於廣告。

Turning to gross margin. Gross margin of 25.3% was above guidance by 80 basis points due primarily to lower podcast content spend, along with broad-based favorability in our core music business led by strength in Marketplace.

轉向毛利率。毛利率為 25.3%，比預期高出 80 個基點，這主要是由於播客內容支出減少，以及市場實力帶動我們的核心音樂業務受到廣泛青睞。

Moving to operating expenses. Growth in the quarter was lower than forecast due mainly to currency movements and to a lesser degree, lower marketing spending. When combined with our better gross profit, our operating loss was ahead of guidance by EUR 69 million.

轉到運營費用。本季度的增長低於預期，這主要是由於匯率變動以及較低程度的營銷支出。再加上我們更好的毛利潤，我們的營業虧損比預期高出 6900 萬歐元。

As we previewed last quarter, free cash flow was negative in Q4 due primarily to timing shifts around certain payments. However, we continue to generate roughly EUR 200 million in free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis and we expect to be free cash flow positive for the full year of 2023.

正如我們上個季度預測的那樣，第四季度的自由現金流量為負，這主要是由於某些付款的時間安排發生了變化。然而，我們在過去 12 個月的基礎上繼續產生大約 2 億歐元的自由現金流，我們預計 2023 年全年的自由現金流為正。

Looking ahead, we are pleased with our momentum into 2023. When combined with our increased focus on speed and efficiency, we are confident in our ability to continue our double-digit top line trajectory in conjunction with improvements in profitability.

展望未來，我們對進入 2023 年的勢頭感到滿意。再加上我們更加關注速度和效率，我們有信心在盈利能力提高的同時繼續保持兩位數的收入軌跡。

With respect to first quarter guidance, we continue to see strong momentum in MAU and anticipate reaching 0.5 billion users by the end of Q1. On the subscriber front, we expect to add about 2 million net subscribers, bringing total subscribers to 207 million. We're also forecasting EUR 3.1 billion in total revenue, a gross margin of roughly 25%, excluding severance charges and an operating loss of EUR 194 million with the latter reflecting EUR 35 million to EUR 45 million in severance charges within our operating expenses.

關於第一季度的指引，我們繼續看到 MAU 的強勁勢頭，預計到第一季度末將達到 5 億用戶。在用戶方面，我們預計將增加約 200 萬淨用戶，使總用戶達到 2.07 億。我們還預測總收入為 31 億歐元，毛利率約為 25%，不包括遣散費和 1.94 億歐元的運營虧損，後者反映了我們運營費用中 3500 萬至 4500 萬歐元的遣散費。

While we no longer give full year guidance, full year 2023, we see strong growth for both users and subs. So we are feeling good about the momentum exiting 2022. Gross margin and operating expenses are expected to improve throughout the year, as we have mentioned previously, while free cash flow is expected to be in line with historic averages.

雖然我們不再給出全年指導，即 2023 年全年，但我們看到用戶和訂閱者都有強勁增長。因此，我們對 2022 年的勢頭感到滿意。正如我們之前提到的那樣，預計全年毛利率和運營費用將有所改善，而自由現金流預計將與歷史平均水平保持一致。

Given many of the adjustments we made at the start of 2023, including our decision to reduce our workforce by 6%, we see our operating expenses growing slower with a material improvement in our operating loss compared with 2022. This is according to plan. As Daniel mentioned, we are entering a new area with even more focus.

鑑於我們在 2023 年初做出的許多調整，包括我們決定將員工人數減少 6%，我們認為與 2022 年相比，我們的運營費用增長放緩，而我們的運營虧損有了實質性改善。這是按計劃進行的。正如丹尼爾提到的，我們正在進入一個更加專注的新領域。

And with that, I'll hand things back to Bryan for Q&A.

有了這個，我會把事情交還給布萊恩進行問答。

Thanks, Paul. (Operator Instructions) And our first question today is going to come from Matt Thornton on subscribers and pricing. Has Spotify seen any lift to subscribers from recent competitor price increases? If not, does this give Spotify increased confidence to take price? And what are the reasons, if any, Spot would not take price?

謝謝，保羅。 （操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自馬特桑頓關於訂戶和定價的問題。 Spotify 是否看到最近競爭對手價格上漲對訂戶有任何提升？如果不是，這是否讓 Spotify 更有信心接受價格？如果有的話，Spot 不接受價格的原因是什麼？

I'll take this and feel free to chime in, Paul. So I think the most thing if we kind of up level this is our priority is to grow revenue as fast as we possibly can. So when we look at a market, there's generally two strategies we can do that. One of those strategies would be to grow the number of people that we can attract to join our platform. And the second strategy would be to increase the revenue per user that we already have on the platform.

我會接受這個並隨時插話，保羅。所以我認為，如果我們提高水平，最重要的是我們的首要任務是盡可能快地增加收入。因此，當我們審視一個市場時，通常可以採用兩種策略。其中一項策略是增加我們可以吸引加入我們平台的人數。第二個策略是增加平台上已有的每個用戶的收入。

So generally, our approach when we're early in a market is to try to grow the number of participants on the platform. And the usual way to do that is not to try to increase prices too early, but keep a competitive price that attracts the most amount of users onto the platform. And then as the market matures, then obviously, it will shift more so that most of the revenue growth comes from price increases.

所以一般來說，當我們處於市場早期時，我們的方法是嘗試增加平台上的參與者數量。通常的做法是不要過早提價，而是保持有競爭力的價格，以吸引最多的用戶到平台上。然後隨著市場的成熟，很明顯，它會發生更多變化，因此大部分收入增長都來自價格上漲。

So to put things in context, in 2022, we increased our price point in more than 40 markets around the world. So it's definitely something that we're doing, and we're looking at it as a balanced portfolio approach where in some markets, we're selectively increasing prices because we're in a more mature place. In some markets, we're mostly focused on growth. So that's our general approach.

因此，綜上所述，在 2022 年，我們提高了全球 40 多個市場的價格點。所以這絕對是我們正在做的事情，我們將其視為一種平衡的投資組合方法，在某些市場中，我們有選擇地提高價格，因為我們處於更成熟的地方。在某些市場，我們主要關注增長。這就是我們的一般方法。

And I don't have anything specific to announce at this point, but we are constantly discussing with our rights holder partners around various price increases that we would be doing. So we would always look at what's net beneficial to our business in growing the revenue and growing the profitability in each market we're in.

目前我沒有任何具體要宣布的內容，但我們一直在與我們的權利持有人合作夥伴討論我們將要進行的各種提價。因此，我們會始終關注在我們所處的每個市場中增加收入和增加盈利能力對我們的業務有什麼淨好處。

Yes. I would just add in terms of just the subs outperformance in Q4, it was pretty broad-based. So it was broad-based globally. It was broad-based by product. We had strength, family plan and Duo plan. We outperformance of EUR 3 million. There was outperformance in pretty much every region. So it was pretty broad-based. And we had success with our holiday campaign, which we do every December and Wrapped was a huge success as well, sort of driving traffic to Spotify. So overall, the overall subs outperformance was pretty broad based.

是的。我只想補充一下第四季度的潛艇表現，它的基礎非常廣泛。因此它在全球範圍內具有廣泛的基礎。它的產品基礎廣泛。我們有力量、家庭計劃和雙人計劃。我們的業績超過 300 萬歐元。幾乎每個地區都有出色的表現。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。我們的假期活動取得了成功，我們每年 12 月都會進行，Wrapped 也取得了巨大的成功，為 Spotify 帶來了流量。所以總的來說，整體潛艇的表現非常廣泛。

All right. Our next question is going to come from Michael Morris on music economics. Universal CEO recently called for a change to the streaming music business model, citing an increase in lower quality content, diverting economics away from artists. Do you believe this is happening on your platform? And what do you see as the path forward with your music label partners on this topic?

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自邁克爾莫里斯關於音樂經濟學的問題。環球公司首席執行官最近呼籲改變流媒體音樂商業模式，理由是低質量內容的增加導致經濟從藝術家身上轉移。你相信這會發生在你的平台上嗎？在這個話題上，您認為與您的唱片公司合作夥伴的前進道路是什麼？

So first off, we have great relationships with all of our music partners and are in constant dialogues with them about their performance and our performance in all the markets around the world. But I think the most important thing to perhaps note is that much like other forms of media, one of the most interesting changes that's been happening is obviously, that people's music taste is becoming more personalized.

因此，首先，我們與我們所有的音樂合作夥伴都建立了良好的關係，並不斷與他們就他們的表現以及我們在全球所有市場的表現進行對話。但我認為可能需要注意的最重要的事情是，就像其他形式的媒體一樣，正在發生的最有趣的變化之一顯然是，人們的音樂品味正變得更加個性化。

And as people's music taste is becoming more personalized, you're seeing two things happening. The number of artists that are mattering for users are increasing materially. And the other change is that unlike in the early areas of streaming, we're seeing a notable increase in local repertoire. So for instance, if you look at many of the local geographies now, you're seeing a lot of -- take France as an example, you're seeing a lot of French music actually being very impactful in Poland. You're seeing a lot of Polish music being very impactful as well.

隨著人們的音樂品味變得更加個性化，您會看到兩件事情正在發生。對用戶很重要的藝術家數量正在大幅增加。另一個變化是，與流媒體的早期領域不同，我們看到本地曲目顯著增加。因此，例如，如果你現在看看許多當地的地理區域，你會看到很多——以法國為例，你會看到很多法國音樂實際上在波蘭非常有影響力。您會看到很多波蘭音樂也非常有影響力。

So I think the -- there is a lot more artists that are mattering now than perhaps ever before. And obviously, the big sort of counter to that would be, does it mean that you can sustain yourself or is it more one-hit wonders? And I think you're seeing a little bit of both happening in the music industry at present moment. I think some of these trends are very powerful and very good, I think, for consumers with more choice and more artists making their way.

所以我認為 - 現在有比以往任何時候都重要的藝術家。很明顯，與此相反的最大類型是，這是否意味著您可以維持自己的生命，還是更多的一次性奇蹟？而且我認為您目前在音樂行業中看到了這兩種情況。我認為其中一些趨勢非常強大而且非常好，我認為，對於擁有更多選擇的消費者和更多的藝術家來說。

And then you need to balance that, obviously, with having the ability to have sustainable artist careers on the back of that, too. And that's a constant dialogue that we're having with our label partners.

然後你需要平衡這一點，很明顯，在此基礎上也有能力擁有可持續的藝術家職業生涯。這是我們與標籤合作夥伴的持續對話。

But I would mostly say that most of what we're seeing is quite encouraging because of all the response that we're seeing from artists around the world and their ability to grow their audience.

但我主要想說的是，我們所看到的大部分內容都非常令人鼓舞，因為我們看到了來自世界各地藝術家的所有反應以及他們擴大觀眾群的能力。

All right. Next question is going to come from Doug Anmuth on gross margin. As you move beyond the 2022 investment year, do you still expect gross margin to expand in 2023? And can you talk about the key drivers?

好的。下一個問題將來自 Doug Anmuth 關於毛利率的問題。隨著您超越 2022 年投資年，您是否仍預計 2023 年毛利率會擴大？你能談談關鍵驅動因素嗎？

So the short answer is yes. We think Q1 will be the low point in terms of gross margin for the year, with gross margin improving throughout 2023. So that's still the plan. When we look at Q1, in particular, sort of our core margin, when we look at sort of music and podcasting is improving. Some of the investments we made in the back half of the year are still slightly impacting Q1. We think those will sort of continue to moderate throughout the year, which will help -- partly help gross margin.

所以簡短的回答是肯定的。我們認為第一季度將是全年毛利率的低點，整個 2023 年毛利率都會提高。所以這仍然是計劃。當我們看第一季度時，特別是我們的核心利潤率，當我們看音樂和播客時，它正在改善。我們在今年下半年進行的一些投資仍在對第一季度產生輕微影響。我們認為這些將在全年繼續放緩，這將有所幫助 - 部分有助於毛利率。

We've talked about the improvements in podcast gross margin as well as we expect that to get better throughout the year. So we do expect that Q1 will be the low point for gross margin, and we do expect for it to improve throughout the year, with hopefully a nice trajectory heading out of 2023.

我們已經討論了播客毛利率的提高，我們預計全年都會有所改善。因此，我們確實預計第一季度將是毛利率的低點，我們確實預計它會在全年有所改善，並有望在 2023 年之前保持良好的發展軌跡。

All right. Next question comes from Mario Lu on operating income. You mentioned in the deck an expectation for meaningful improvement in operating income in fiscal '23 and beyond. That being said, is there a rough time line with regards to when we should expect overall operating income to reach breakeven?

好的。下一個問題來自 Mario Lu 關於營業收入的問題。您在演示文稿中提到了對 23 財年及以後營業收入顯著改善的期望。話雖這麼說，關於我們應該預期整體營業收入何時達到盈虧平衡，是否有一個粗略的時間表？

Yes. We haven't given a timeline on that. I would say, first thing is I think you can expect to see a meaningful improvement in the operating loss in '23 relative to '22. So we expect that to be pretty significant. Again, as Daniel mentioned, we invested a lot in 2022. So we'll get some of the leverage on top of that investment in 2023, along with higher revenue growth and more gross profit dollars. So we expect that to improve and improve throughout the year.

是的。我們還沒有給出時間表。我想說的是，首先我認為你可以預期 23 年的營業虧損相對於 22 年會有有意義的改善。所以我們預計這將非常重要。同樣，正如丹尼爾提到的那樣，我們在 2022 年進行了大量投資。因此，我們將在 2023 年的投資基礎上獲得一些槓桿作用，同時實現更高的收入增長和更多的毛利潤。因此，我們預計這一點將在全年得到改善和改善。

Exactly when we break even, we haven't said yet, but we feel like we're on a good path, and we feel like we are in a good position right now to have that speed and efficiency that we want to have in 2023.

究竟什麼時候我們收支平衡，我們還沒有說，但我們覺得我們走在一條很好的道路上，我們覺得我們現在處於一個很好的位置，可以達到我們想要在 2023 年擁有的速度和效率.

All right. Another question from Matt Thornton on margins. Do you still expect 2022 to have been the peak drag from podcasts? And podcast, do you still expect podcast to reach breakeven within several years? And three, do you still expect the consolidated gross margin to reach 30% within 5 years?

好的。馬特·桑頓 (Matt Thornton) 關於利潤率的另一個問題。您是否仍然認為 2022 年會成為播客的頂峰拖累？還有播客，你還期望播客在幾年內達到盈虧平衡嗎？第三，您是否仍預計綜合毛利率在 5 年內達到 30%？

(inaudible) and then you can chime in because I think some added context here might be pretty good as well. So I think the big thing that I just want to highlight again is we mentioned, as Paul said before, that 2022 would be an investment year. And we broke out the various verticals where you would see that music have been making steady improvements, but obviously, our podcasting business had been a drag to our gross margin profile.

（聽不清）然後你可以插話，因為我認為這裡添加一些上下文可能也很不錯。所以我想我只想再次強調的一件大事是，正如保羅之前所說，我們提到 2022 年將是投資年。我們打破了各種垂直領域，你會看到音樂一直在穩步改進，但顯然，我們的播客業務拖累了我們的毛利率。

And we also then announced that 2023 would be a year where you see the reversal of some of those trends. So I just wanted to add that context that, that's still very much on the top line for us that you should expect music to be meaningfully improving with things like Marketplace playing an important role. And then podcasting, both as it grows in size with advertising revenue, but also more efficient spending will mean that you'll see improvements there as well. And then, Paul, maybe you can chime in on the detailed questions.

然後我們還宣布，2023 年將是您看到其中一些趨勢發生逆轉的一年。所以我只想補充一點，這對我們來說仍然是最重要的，你應該期待音樂會隨著 Marketplace 等發揮重要作用而得到有意義的改進。然後是播客，隨著它的規模隨著廣告收入的增長而增長，而且更有效的支出將意味著你也會在那裡看到改進。然後，保羅，也許你可以插話詳細的問題。

Yes, I can be quick now. So the answer is yes to 2022 being the peak drag from podcast. Yes, the podcast reaching breakeven within several years. And yes, we still believe our consolidated gross margins can reach 30% in 5 years.

是的，我現在可以快點了。因此，答案是肯定的，2022 年是播客的峰值拖累。是的，播客在幾年內達到盈虧平衡。是的，我們仍然相信我們的綜合毛利率可以在 5 年內達到 30%。

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Justin Patterson. This is for Daniel. As Alex takes on responsibility as Chief Business Officer, how should we think about his priorities and leadership for content and advertising, how those might differ from Dawn's?

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自賈斯汀帕特森。這是給丹尼爾的。隨著 Alex 擔任首席商務官，我們應該如何考慮他在內容和廣告方面的優先事項和領導能力，這些與 Dawn 的有何不同？

I don't think from a strategy point of view that it will differ all that much from Dawn's. However, again, the primary reason why we did this reorg was to drive speed and drive more efficiency. So speed will come in having more decision-making and faster decision-making. Essentially, Spotify is a lot more complex of a business than it was several years ago. And so, to have both Gustav and Alex help me in the day-to-day in this much more complex business, I think, will materially mean that we'll have more brains thinking about these things.

從戰略的角度來看，我認為它與 Dawn 的差異不大。然而，我們進行這次重組的主要原因還是為了提高速度和效率。因此，速度將來自更多的決策制定和更快的決策制定。從本質上講，Spotify 的業務比幾年前複雜得多。因此，我認為，讓 Gustav 和 Alex 幫助我處理這個複雜得多的業務的日常工作，實質上意味著我們將有更多的頭腦來思考這些事情。

We'll be having more decision-making so that we can make decisions faster because that honestly is one of the biggest blocker at this point. It's not that we can't execute on the ground. It is actually making real sort of material decision-making at the top. That's been one of our -- things that we need to speed up when we look at sort of the internal feedback.

我們將有更多的決策制定，以便我們可以更快地做出決策，因為老實說，這是目前最大的障礙之一。這並不是說我們不能實地執行。它實際上是在高層做出真正的重大決策。當我們查看某種內部反饋時，這是我們需要加快速度的事情之一。

And then we're going to holistically now look at the business rather than looking at things bit by bit. So marketing was under Alex preview previously, but not advertising and not content. And now we're holistically looking at it as one P&L and focus on driving efficiency across the board by readdressing resources to where it's most needed. And that will be a big improvement from prior org setups.

然後我們現在要整體地看待業務，而不是一點一點地看待事情。所以營銷是在亞歷克斯預覽之前進行的，但不是廣告，也不是內容。現在，我們將其作為一個損益整體來看待，並專注於通過將資源重新分配到最需要的地方來全面提高效率。與之前的組織設置相比，這將是一個很大的改進。

All right. Next question from Doug Anmuth, users and subscriber growth in '23. How would you think about 2023 net adds for MAUs and premium subscribers relative to your performance in '22? What are some of the puts and takes here?

好的。 Doug Anmuth 的下一個問題是 23 年的用戶和訂戶增長。相對於您在 22 年的表現，您如何看待 2023 年 MAU 和高級訂戶的淨增加？這裡有哪些 puts 和 takes？

So obviously, we don't give 2022 guidance anymore. I think what we said in my outset is we expect really strong growth. Obviously, on the MAU side, '22 was a real outlier in terms of how much we outperformed. But we see this often where we have some years where we over-index on MAU or we over-indexed on subs, and it can change even throughout the year in terms of how we're trending.

很明顯，我們不再提供 2022 年的指導。我認為我們一開始所說的是我們期待真正強勁的增長。顯然，在 MAU 方面，'22 就我們的表現而言是一個真正的異常值。但我們經常看到這種情況，有些年我們對 MAU 的指數過高或對訂閱量的指數過高，而且它甚至可以在一年中根據我們的趨勢發生變化。

I would say, in general, any time we're growing MAUs, the way we are, it's always a really good sign of the business, the health of the business and the health of the future subscriber growth for Spotify as well. So we're not giving guidance, but I would say we feel really good about the momentum as we exit 2022. We feel good about the guidance for Q1 and how we're trending.

我想說的是，總的來說，無論何時我們都在增加 MAU，我們的方式，這始終是業務、業務健康以及 Spotify 未來用戶增長健康的一個非常好的跡象。所以我們沒有給出指導，但我想說我們對 2022 年結束時的勢頭感覺非常好。我們對第一季度的指導以及我們的趨勢感覺很好。

My only addition to that would be, again, to note that much of the investments we've been making over these past few years that culminated in 2022 was making platform improvements. Improving the number of content we have on our platform, improving the tools for creators and consumers alike, and that has led to better acquisition, better retention of the consumers really across the board. So I feel really good about that.

我唯一的補充是，再次指出，我們在過去幾年中所做的大部分投資在 2022 年達到頂峰，都是在改進平台。增加我們平台上的內容數量，為創作者和消費者改進工具，這導致了更好的獲取，更好地全面保留了消費者。所以我對此感覺很好。

And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, some of these things we expected to take longer on seeing the benefits, but we're seeing them already in 2022, and I think that's a real positive news for the years to come.

正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們預計其中一些事情需要更長的時間才能看到好處，但我們已經在 2022 年看到了它們，我認為這對未來幾年來說是一個真正的好消息。

Okay. Our next question is going to come from Michael Morris on advertising. How is advertising revenue been trending in the first quarter of 2023? Do you expect the relative performance of podcasting and music growth to persist in 2023? And how far forward do you have insight into demand trends?

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自邁克爾莫里斯關於廣告的問題。 2023 年第一季度的廣告收入趨勢如何？您預計播客和音樂增長的相對錶現會在 2023 年持續嗎？您對需求趨勢的洞察力有多遠？

So if you kind of take a step back and you look at sort of just advertising in Q4 overall, it's definitely continued to be very up and down. So in Q4, we outperformed our expectations. Admittedly, those were lowered expectations. So we had kind of lowered expectations coming into Q4. We actually outperformed those by about EUR 50 million or so, plus or minus. And even within that, we had 2 months that outperformed and 1 month that underperformed. So even within Q4, it was pretty up and down.

因此，如果你退後一步，看看整個第四季度的廣告，它肯定會繼續上下波動。所以在第四季度，我們的表現超出了我們的預期。不可否認，這些都是降低的期望。因此，我們對進入第四季度的預期有所降低。實際上，我們的業績比他們高出約 5000 萬歐元左右，上下浮動。即使在其中，我們也有 2 個月表現出色，1 個月表現不佳。因此，即使在第四季度，它也是上下波動。

So in Q1 probably -- we expect more of the same. We feel really good about the ad stack we're building. We feel really good about some of the acquisitions we've made, obviously, at the high-level megaphone, but chartable and pod sites and our ability to improve measurement and attribution across all of advertising. And so we feel good about that and where the tech is going, and then it's really going to somewhat depend on just how the macro rolls out over time. And so, it's been uncertain. I think we've done pretty well. Like I said, we slightly outperformed in Q4, and we'll see how the year unfolds.

所以在第一季度可能 - 我們期待更多相同的東西。我們對正在構建的廣告堆棧感覺非常好。我們對我們所做的一些收購感覺非常好，顯然，在高級擴音器，但圖表和豆莢網站以及我們改善所有廣告的衡量和歸因的能力。因此，我們對此以及技術的發展方向感覺良好，然後它真的會在某種程度上取決於宏隨著時間的推移如何推出。所以，這是不確定的。我認為我們做得很好。就像我說的，我們在第四季度的表現略勝一籌，我們將拭目以待這一年的發展。

Okay. Next question from Benjamin Black on Marketplace. You had expectations for approximately EUR 200 million in Marketplace revenue for 2022. How did you track versus expectations? And how should we be thinking about the trajectory of Marketplace in '23?

好的。 Benjamin Black 在 Marketplace 上的下一個問題。您預計 2022 年市場收入約為 2 億歐元。您是如何跟踪預期的？我們應該如何思考 Marketplace 在 23 年的發展軌跡？

So we outperformed that EUR 200 million. I think we had said at the Investor Day that we expected Marketplace to grow at least 30% in 2022. It exceeded those expectations pretty nicely. So we had really strong Marketplace growth overall in 2022. And again, we feel that product has a lot of momentum behind it as well and expect good things in 2023 as well.

所以我們的表現超過了 2 億歐元。我想我們在投資者日說過，我們預計 Marketplace 在 2022 年至少增長 30%。它很好地超出了這些預期。因此，我們在 2022 年的整體市場增長非常強勁。而且，我們認為該產品背後也有很大的動力，並期待 2023 年也會有好事。

Okay. Next -- another question from Michael Morris. Can you share detail on investments that have impacted Premium gross margin? What types of products are being invested in? When do you expect them to be released? And what is the projected path to contribution?

好的。接下來-- Michael Morris 的另一個問題。您能否分享影響保費毛利率的投資詳情？正在投資哪些類型的產品？你預計他們什麼時候發布？預計的貢獻路徑是什麼？

So there's a number of things that go on there. A lot is things that we test and learn. We don't always talk about them, some of the things that come out 6, 9, 12 months later. And so, when we talk about an investment year, some of that is part of what was going on. It's things that we think are going to drive -- improve engagement, improve users, improve subscribers. And some of it, we have to absorb the cost as we're testing.

所以那裡發生了很多事情。很多是我們測試和學習的東西。我們並不總是談論它們，一些在 6、9、12 個月後出現的事情。因此，當我們談論投資年時，其中一些是正在發生的事情的一部分。這是我們認為會推動的事情——提高參與度、改善用戶、改善訂閱者。其中一些，我們必須在測試時承擔成本。

So we don't go through all of them. We do sometimes 10, sometimes hundreds of those within quarters. But again, I think we believe we'll get the benefits of some of those moving forward into 2023, and you'll see the incremental investment slow and the benefits kind of hit in '23.

所以我們不會一一列舉。我們有時在一個宿舍內做 10 個，有時數百個。但同樣，我認為我們相信我們將獲得其中一些前進到 2023 年的好處，你會看到增量投資放緩，23 年的好處受到衝擊。

Okay. Next question from Rich Greenfield on audio books. Is audio books as a category working? Was it a mistake? And how has it impacted your thinking about new categories, some of those new categories you teased at the Investor Day?

好的。 Rich Greenfield 關於有聲讀物的下一個問題。有聲讀物作為一個類別有效嗎？這是一個錯誤嗎？它如何影響您對新類別的思考，其中一些是您在投資者日取笑的新類別？

Yes. I mean it's early days on audio books. That's kind of what I can say. We're seeing some encouraging signs. We're definitely seeing people take up the offering but we're nowhere done from where we want to be and where we believe the category can be doing.

是的。我的意思是有聲讀物還處於早期階段。這就是我能說的。我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。我們肯定看到人們接受了該產品，但我們還沒有完成我們想要達到的目標以及我們認為該類別可以做到的目標。

But I would just -- rather than perhaps giving any specifics here or preannounced things, I think that the most important thing I can do is kind of give a context in that there's two types of companies. There's the company that waits until it gets things perfect the first time and then it tries to launch something that's perfect. And then there's the company that releases something that it knows needs work and then rapidly improves from there.

但我只想 - 而不是在這裡提供任何細節或預先宣布的事情，我認為我能做的最重要的事情就是提供一種背景，因為有兩種類型的公司。有些公司會等到它第一次把事情做到完美，然後再嘗試推出完美的東西。然後有公司發布它知道需要工作的東西，然後從那裡迅速改進。

We're definitely the latter. It's hard for people to understand when they're looking at us because it looks like it's an inferior product or an inferior strategy. We have the same notion around podcasting. How is this thing going to win podcasting these many years ago when we announced that. And yet now 4 years later, we're the leader in that space.

我們絕對是後者。當人們看著我們時，他們很難理解，因為它看起來像是劣質產品或劣質戰略。我們對播客有相同的看法。多年前，當我們宣布這一點時，這件事將如何贏得播客。然而 4 年後的現在，我們是該領域的領導者。

So I think as you're looking at our strategy now, you shouldn't draw any two big conclusions that we are -- that's our full intent of what we want to do in the category. So we're encouraged because we think fundamentally that audio books has a massive opportunity and that there are very few consumers that are currently participating in the ecosystem. And if you look -- compare to our other verticals, music and podcasting, we thought pretty much the same thing.

所以我認為，當你現在正在審視我們的戰略時，你不應該得出我們的任何兩個大結論——這是我們想要在該類別中做的事情的全部意圖。所以我們感到鼓舞，因為我們從根本上認為有聲讀物有巨大的機會，而且目前參與生態系統的消費者很少。如果你看——與我們的其他垂直領域、音樂和播客相比，我們的想法幾乎是一樣的。

So nothing has really changed when we look at the space and what the potential is, and now we're just heads down focused on executing. And during 2023, you'll see a lot of new things roll out in the audio book category from Spotify.

因此，當我們審視空間和潛力時，一切都沒有真正改變，現在我們只是低頭專注於執行。在 2023 年期間，您會看到 Spotify 在有聲讀物類別中推出了許多新內容。

All right. Our next question is going to come from Deepak on user choice billing. Were there any noticeable benefits to subscribers from the rollout of Google user choice billing in the fourth quarter? And are you seeing any conversion uplift?

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自 Deepak 關於用戶選擇計費的問題。第四季度推出的 Google 用戶選擇計費是否給訂閱者帶來了明顯的好處？您是否看到任何轉換提升？

It's still early days. So it's tough to really know. I would say, in general, I think we're just overall, very excited about the opportunity. The join flow is better, giving users the choice on payment methods and how they want to work with us and purchase from us. And so, we're excited about user choice billing. We think it's going to reduce friction and improve conversion over time. Still early days in terms of how it's impacted at this point.

現在還為時尚早。所以很難真正知道。我想說，總的來說，我認為我們總體上對這個機會感到非常興奮。加入流程更好，讓用戶可以選擇付款方式以及他們希望如何與我們合作並從我們這裡購買。因此，我們對用戶選擇計費感到興奮。我們認為隨著時間的推移，這將減少摩擦並提高轉化率。就目前的影響而言，仍處於早期階段。

It is positive, though. So it's early days, but positive.

不過，這是積極的。所以現在還為時尚早，但積極。

All right. We've got another question from Rich Greenfield on podcasting. Investors remain skeptical that podcasting is a good business and that it has meaningfully moved the needle for Spotify. Can you help them understand why you believe in the investment to date, especially in the context of your recent management changes?

好的。我們收到了 Rich Greenfield 關於播客的另一個問題。投資者仍然懷疑播客是否是一項好業務，以及它是否對 Spotify 產生了重大影響。你能幫助他們理解為什麼你相信迄今為止的投資，特別是在你最近的管理變動的背景下嗎？

Yes, I think the most important thing here is to kind of go back on context. 4 years ago, we entered into podcasting. The major player in podcasting had been doing it for 20 years and was considered the sort of unassailable leader. So we wanted to tackle this heads on. And we realized, again, as I mentioned in my comments around audio books that this was a nascent space that was growing, albeit that still was underconsumed to what we believe the potential was in the industry.

是的，我認為這裡最重要的是回到上下文。 4 年前，我們進入播客領域。播客領域的主要參與者已經做了 20 年，被認為是那種無懈可擊的領導者。所以我們想直接解決這個問題。我們再次意識到，正如我在對有聲讀物的評論中提到的那樣，這是一個正在成長的新興空間，儘管我們認為該行業的潛力仍未得到充分利用。

And we took the medium and pretty much have grown overall globally now the audience by a huge margin to what was true 4 years ago. So it wasn't just that we took audience from another platform, but we actually grew the pie meaningfully for podcasters.

我們採用了這種媒體，現在全球範圍內的觀眾人數與 4 年前相比有了巨大的增長。因此，我們不僅從另一個平台吸引了觀眾，而且實際上為播客製作了有意義的餡餅。

And as a result, now we have over 5 million creators on Spotify, so a massive increase in the number of people who are creating podcasts, you being one of them. And this is true across the world, really at this point.

結果，現在我們在 Spotify 上擁有超過 500 萬創作者，因此創作播客的人數大幅增加，您就是其中之一。全世界都是如此，就目前而言。

So net-net, I think we went from being almost nowhere 4 years ago to now being the leader in many markets around the world in this space. And that adds several benefits to Spotify. It adds the benefit that it makes our business more defensible because now it is meaningfully contributing to our advertising story. It is also so that from a competitive lens, when we've added this content, what we're seeing is that consumers are not just consuming music on the platform, but they're consuming music and podcast to a great extent. And the number of users on our platform that are consuming, podcast keeps growing as well. And as that's happening, their retention increases. And as that happening, it is impacting our business.

所以 net-net，我認為我們從 4 年前幾乎無處可去到現在成為這個領域全球許多市場的領導者。這為 Spotify 增加了一些好處。它增加了使我們的業務更具防禦性的好處，因為現在它對我們的廣告故事做出了有意義的貢獻。從競爭的角度來看，當我們添加這些內容時，我們看到的是消費者不僅在平台上消費音樂，而且在很大程度上消費音樂和播客。我們平台上使用播客的用戶數量也在不斷增長。隨著這種情況的發生，他們的保留率會增加。隨著這種情況的發生，它正在影響我們的業務。

Now what you're probably asking underneath all of that is that it's been a drag on the gross margin side. So what does that mean for the future? Well, we've been making many investments. Some of them have been working greatly, and you should expect us to double down on those. And some of them, not surprisingly, haven't worked out. And there are certain shows that work really, really well for us, and there shows that didn't perform as we expected. And I think that's a sign of maturity that you go for the growth first and then you seek the efficiency.

現在你可能會問，在所有這些之下，這一直是毛利率方面的拖累。那麼這對未來意味著什麼呢？好吧，我們一直在做很多投資。他們中的一些人一直在努力工作，你應該期待我們在這些方面加倍努力。毫不奇怪，其中一些沒有成功。有些節目對我們來說真的非常好，有些節目沒有達到我們的預期。我認為這是成熟的標誌，你首先追求增長，然後尋求效率。

But generally, what you should expect us is across the board now to be focused more on that efficiency and creating more leverage and that's certainly true in podcasting too. And the management changes really had nothing to do with the change of strategy in podcasting. It's more around increasing the speed of decision-making and increasing the focus on efficiency across the board because the next era of Spotify is one where we're adding speed plus efficiency, not just focused on speed or growth at all costs. And that is a big shift, but it is also what we said during the Investor Day in June.

但總的來說，你應該期望我們現在全面關注效率並創造更多影響力，這在播客中也是如此。管理層的變化與播客戰略的變化毫無關係。它更多地是圍繞提高決策速度和全面提高對效率的關注，因為 Spotify 的下一個時代是我們增加速度和效率的時代，而不僅僅是不惜一切代價關注速度或增長。這是一個很大的轉變，但這也是我們在 6 月的投資者日所說的。

And now we're going to have to live up to that. And I know some investors don't believe that we're serious about it, but hopefully, my remarks today shows that we are really, really focused on driving efficiency going forward.

而現在我們將不得不辜負這一點。而且我知道一些投資者不相信我們對此是認真的，但希望我今天的言論表明我們真的非常專注於提高未來的效率。

Another question from Benjamin Black on pricing. Last quarter, you alluded to a potential win-win with respect to the conversations you're having with the labels around price increases. What are some of the concessions you're looking for from the labels?

Benjamin Black 提出的另一個關於定價的問題。上個季度，您提到與唱片公司就價格上漲進行的對話可能是雙贏的。您希望從標籤中獲得哪些優惠？

Yes. I can't comment on sort of individual negotiations with our rights partners. But as I mentioned before, we're thinking obviously how we can grow our business the best possible way. Sometimes that is keeping the price low and grow the number of users on the platform. Sometimes it is increasing the revenue per user. Sometimes it is increasing our margin per user and sometimes it's all of the above.

是的。我無法評論與我們的權利合作夥伴的個別談判。但正如我之前提到的，我們顯然正在考慮如何以最好的方式發展我們的業務。有時這會保持低價格並增加平台上的用戶數量。有時它會增加每個用戶的收入。有時它增加了我們每個用戶的利潤，有時它是以上所有。

The important part is what's pretty amazing with our Spotify story is that this is something that creates win-wins with our label partners too. They -- if Spotify does well in the market, it generally increases the revenues for the labels as well. And we've seen that time and time again that this close partnership generates material benefits for both companies over time. And that's what we will expect going forward, too, as we're driving more benefits for all of our creative partners and Spotify.

重要的是，我們的 Spotify 故事令人驚奇的是，這也與我們的唱片合作夥伴創造了雙贏。他們——如果 Spotify 在市場上表現出色，它通常也會增加唱片公司的收入。我們一次又一次地看到，隨著時間的推移，這種密切的合作夥伴關係為兩家公司帶來了物質利益。這也是我們對未來的期望，因為我們正在為我們所有的創意合作夥伴和 Spotify 帶來更多利益。

All right. We've got another question from Doug Anmuth on marketing. How are you thinking about sales and marketing spend for 2023 following the ramp in spend over the past 2 years?

好的。我們從 Doug Anmuth 那裡收到了另一個關於營銷的問題。在過去 2 年的支出激增之後，您如何看待 2023 年的銷售和營銷支出？

Yes, we definitely increased marketing a lot or significantly in 2022. It was definitely a driver of the outperformance in MAU and was very intentional. We had a plan and a focus at the beginning of the year to really invest, particularly in some of our newer markets to grow there and make sure that we have the foothold that we wanted to have. And by all accounts, it was extremely successful, if not more successful than we even thought.

是的，我們在 2022 年肯定會大幅或顯著增加營銷。這絕對是 MAU 表現出色的驅動因素，而且是有意為之的。我們在今年年初制定了一個計劃和重點來真正投資，特別是在我們的一些較新的市場，在那裡發展並確保我們擁有我們想要的立足點。從各方面來看，它非常成功，甚至比我們想像的還要成功。

I do think you'll see '23 being -- we'll be more efficient with our marketing spend into 2023. As Daniel said, we're going to be more efficient. We're going to be more thoughtful about all of our spending into 2023. So no specific guidance, but yes, there was a big ramp in 2022. And I think you'll see us be more efficient with our marketing spend into '23.

我確實認為你會看到 23 年——到 2023 年，我們的營銷支出將更有效率。正如丹尼爾所說，我們將變得更有效率。我們將更加考慮到 2023 年的所有支出。所以沒有具體的指導，但是，是的，2022 年有一個很大的增長。而且我認為你會看到我們在 23 年的營銷支出上更有效率.

Okay. Another question for Ben Black on ticketing. Could you give us an update on your ticketing business? Is this an area of focus? And how should we be thinking about the business model and the market opportunity?

好的。 Ben Black 關於票務的另一個問題。您能否向我們介紹一下您的票務業務的最新情況？這是一個重點領域嗎？我們應該如何考慮商業模式和市場機會？

Yes. And just to level set on context. Long term, I think it's absolutely a business model and market opportunity for Spotify, too. But our strategy is to be an open platform, and we want to enable as much as possible, and we are very partner-friendly when we're doing so. So think about, for instance, how we're working with our label partners, think about how we're working with merchandise and other things, too. It is not offering our own solution and locking people in. It is opening up the platform so that creators have as much choice as possible in choosing whatever options they want to do.

是的。並且只是根據上下文設置水平。從長遠來看，我認為這對 Spotify 來說絕對是一種商業模式和市場機會。但我們的戰略是成為一個開放平台，我們希望盡可能多地啟用，而且我們在這樣做時對合作夥伴非常友好。所以想想，例如，我們如何與我們的標籤合作夥伴合作，想想我們如何處理商品和其他事情。它不是提供我們自己的解決方案並鎖定人們。它正在開放平台，以便創作者有盡可能多的選擇來選擇他們想做的任何選項。

So the primary strategy is very simple. We see a double-sided win-win here, which long term will translate into business opportunity. But our creators are trying to grow their audience on Spotify. They're trying to engage more with that audience, and we're obviously trying to help them monetize that audience even better. A huge part of that, especially for the music audience is obviously touring. So if we can be a partner to creators and help them sell more of their tickets, that is a meaningful increase to many artists' livelihood, which is great and something we're focused on.

所以主要策略很簡單。我們在這裡看到了雙贏，從長遠來看，這將轉化為商機。但我們的創作者正在努力增加他們在 Spotify 上的聽眾。他們正試圖更多地與這些觀眾互動，而我們顯然正在努力幫助他們更好地從這些觀眾身上獲利。其中很大一部分，尤其是對音樂觀眾來說，顯然是巡迴演出。因此，如果我們可以成為創作者的合作夥伴並幫助他們賣出更多門票，那將對許多藝術家的生計產生有意義的增長，這很好，也是我們關注的重點。

But the separate part is on the user side, the same is true as well. One of the big things we're seeing is users are asking us, help me find more great things to go watch. And we saw a tremendous uptake in the number of people who are visiting the Concerts tab on Spotify in 2022. But the strategy isn't to go compete with the ecosystem, but rather to enable the ecosystem. And then from there on, there will be opportunities for us to play as well. And you can see that already today where there's lots of concerts from all the big vendors being available, and we'll add more and more of inventory. And over time, that will translate into business opportunities for Spotify as well.

但是單獨的部分是在用戶端，同樣如此。我們看到的一件大事是用戶要求我們幫助我找到更多值得觀看的好東西。我們看到 2022 年訪問 Spotify 上“音樂會”選項卡的人數大幅增加。但我們的戰略不是與生態系統競爭，而是支持生態系統。從那時起，我們也將有機會參加比賽。你可以看到，今天已經有來自所有大供應商的許多音樂會，我們將增加越來越多的庫存。隨著時間的推移，這也將轉化為 Spotify 的商機。

Okay. Next question from Mario Lu on cost savings. Can you help quantify the annual savings from the headcount reduction you announced last week? And any specific areas of the business to call out that were impacted more so than others?

好的。 Mario Lu 關於成本節約的下一個問題。你能幫助量化你上周宣布的裁員帶來的年度節省嗎？還有哪些業務的特定領域比其他領域受到的影響更大？

We're not going to quantify the savings. Obviously, you can do the math. It's roughly 600 employees that were affected. The 6% was actual employees. We also are looking closely at open headcount to see which of those we want to backfill and which of those we will also eliminate sort of, as we've mentioned a number of times as we try and be more efficient with deploying capital and employees moving forward. And there wasn't really any specific area. It was pretty broad-based across most of the divisions within Spotify.

我們不會量化節省的費用。顯然，您可以計算一下。大約有 600 名員工受到影響。這 6% 是實際僱員。我們也在密切關注開放員工人數，看看我們想要回填哪些人以及我們將消除哪些人，正如我們多次提到的那樣，我們試圖更有效地部署資本和員工流動向前。並且實際上沒有任何特定區域。它在 Spotify 的大部分部門中都有相當廣泛的基礎。

We've got another question from Rich Greenfield on the product. Spotify recently began testing a Friend's tab on the bottom strip of the app. Can you help us understand your thinking here?

我們收到了來自 Rich Greenfield 的另一個關於該產品的問題。 Spotify 最近開始在應用程序的底部條帶上測試朋友的標籤。你能幫助我們理解你的想法嗎？

Well, we do a lot of experiments on the product side in many different areas. So what you probably have seen is one of those experiments. And since we're not committed to rolling that out, I don't really have much of a sort of comment, but to say that overall, we're committed to creating the best audio experience for consumers and creators in the world. And obviously, social could be a meaningful driver of creating an even stickier and more engaging experience.

好吧，我們在許多不同領域的產品方面做了很多實驗。所以你可能已經看到了其中一個實驗。由於我們不打算推出它，所以我真的沒有太多評論，但總的來說，我們致力於為世界上的消費者和創作者創造最好的音頻體驗。顯然，社交可以成為創造更具粘性、更具吸引力的體驗的重要驅動力。

We've got a follow-up question from Doug Anmuth on subscribers. You typically see MAU to Premium subscriber conversion in the 12 to 18 month range. Do you expect any change to that conversion or to churn given the large MAU cohorts over the past couple of years?

我們收到了 Doug Anmuth 關於訂閱者的後續問題。您通常會在 12 到 18 個月的範圍內看到 MAU 到高級訂閱者的轉化。考慮到過去幾年的大量 MAU 隊列，您是否預計該轉換會發生任何變化或流失？

So I'd say, look, at a high level, we've said this repeatedly for a while, any time you're seeing accelerating growth in MAU, that always tends to be very good for our business and lead to subscribers over time. At this point, we don't see any reason why any of our historical trends would change. It's always tough to know. But again, given the outperformance in MAU this year, that's always a good harbinger for sub growth in the future.

所以我想說，從高層次上看，我們已經反复說過一段時間了，只要你看到 MAU 的加速增長，這往往對我們的業務非常有利，並且隨著時間的推移會帶來訂閱者.在這一點上，我們看不出任何歷史趨勢會發生變化的原因。總是很難知道。但同樣，考慮到今年 MAU 的出色表現，這始終是未來次級增長的良好預兆。

And with respect to churn, we don't obviously give those numbers out. Year-over-year churn, though, was pretty consistent with where it was at this point last year. So even with the strong growth, we're not seeing any uptick in churn at all.

關於流失率，我們顯然沒有給出這些數字。不過，同比流失率與去年此時的情況非常一致。因此，即使增長強勁，我們也沒有看到客戶流失率有任何上升。

The one addition I would probably just make is that it's generally been true over the entire existence at Spotify that the longer a person stays with us, the higher the likelihood is that they'll end up being a Premium subscriber over time. So again, country mix changes, maturity of those market changes and so on. So when you look at the core behavior, it may take longer in some developing markets than it does in mature markets, et cetera. But the trend is the same, which is the longer they stay, the more likely they are to convert. And of course, the better the engaging experience, we make the more likely they are to stay. And therefore, the more likely it is to lead to positive business results for us long term.

我可能只想做的一個補充是，在 Spotify 的整個存在過程中，一個人與我們在一起的時間越長，隨著時間的推移，他們最終成為 Premium 訂閱者的可能性就越大。同樣，國家組合的變化，這些市場的成熟度變化等等。因此，當您查看核心行為時，某些發展中市場可能需要比成熟市場等更長的時間。但趨勢是一樣的，即他們停留的時間越長，他們轉化的可能性就越大。當然，參與體驗越好，我們就越有可能讓他們留下來。因此，從長遠來看，它更有可能為我們帶來積極的業務成果。

All right. We've got time for 1 to 2 more questions. We're going to go to the next one from Benjamin Black on margins. I think you classified 2022 as an investment year. So could you break out -- break down which investments are falling off that will drive the positive gross margin inflection in 2023 and 2024?

好的。我們還有時間再回答 1 到 2 個問題。我們將在邊緣轉到本傑明布萊克的下一個。我認為您將 2022 年歸類為投資年。那麼你能否打破 - 分解哪些投資正在下降，這將推動 2023 年和 2024 年的毛利率出現正拐點？

Yes. I think there's -- look, there's a number of factors that are going to -- that improve gross margin. I think we've talked about a lot of them. We're going to continue to see Marketplace growth, which will help our music gross margin. A lot of the investments that we did in 2022 that were investments with no real sort of benefits to the revenue will start to hopefully bear fruit in '23 and beyond. We've talked about podcasting that 2022 was going to be the peak year in terms of the drag that podcasting had on our gross margins. So we expect that to get better in 2023 as well. So pretty consistent with what we've said in the past in terms of what the impacts were in 2022 and how that will change in '23 and beyond.

是的。我認為 - 看，有許多因素會 - 提高毛利率。我想我們已經談了很多。我們將繼續看到 Marketplace 的增長，這將有助於我們的音樂毛利率。我們在 2022 年進行的許多投資對收入沒有真正的好處，但有望在 23 年及以後開始取得成果。我們已經談到播客，就播客對我們毛利率的拖累而言，2022 年將是高峰年。因此，我們預計 2023 年情況也會好轉。就 2022 年的影響以及 23 年及以後的影響將如何變化而言，這與我們過去所說的非常一致。

All right. And we're going to take the last question from Rich Greenfield on competition. Does Spotify need to figure out music discovery knowing that TikTok appears to be ramping up to launch a music subscription service in the U.S. and Europe later this year?

好的。我們將回答 Rich Greenfield 關於競爭的最後一個問題。 Spotify 是否需要在知道 TikTok 似乎將在今年晚些時候在美國和歐洲推出音樂訂閱服務的情況下弄清楚音樂發現？

Well, I mean, again, we have what I think is a pretty decent music discovery already, which works pretty well. Now that said, of course, we're always looking at how we can make that better. And you're right to point out that TikTok obviously, is a formidable competitor, I think, to any platform in the world today, no matter what field you're operating in. But we feel pretty good about the improvements we made in the platform already. And obviously, I look forward to sharing more on Stream On, sort of wink-wink around all the updates that we're planning throughout the year as well that I think will mean a lot for both music and podcasting and beyond.

好吧，我的意思是，我們已經有了我認為相當不錯的音樂發現，而且效果很好。話雖如此，當然，我們一直在研究如何讓它變得更好。你指出 TikTok 顯然是對的，我認為，對於當今世界上的任何平台而言，無論你在哪個領域運營，TikTok 都是一個強大的競爭對手。但我們對我們在平台已經。顯然，我期待在 Stream On 上分享更多內容，對我們全年計劃的所有更新進行眨眼眨眼，我認為這對音樂和播客以及其他方面都意義重大。

So we're focused on having the best possible platform we can have for both consumers and creators and that remains true. But I feel, candidly, that -- we're in a better position competitively than we've been in many, many years. For throughout the existence of Spotify, we have always heard of competitors, and it was always the sort of big scary wolf, whether it was Apple or Amazon in the past, et cetera. Now it's perhaps YouTube and TikTok, et cetera.

因此，我們專注於為消費者和創作者提供盡可能最好的平台，這仍然是正確的。但坦率地說，我覺得 - 我們在競爭中處於比過去許多年更好的位置。縱觀Spotify的存在，我們總是聽說過競爭對手，而且總是那種可怕的大狼，無論是過去的蘋果還是亞馬遜等等。現在可能是 YouTube 和 TikTok 等等。

But with both, all the improvements we've been making in music, but also with the addition of podcasting and audio books, it is a much more resilient consumer experience. And I feel really, really good about our competitive differentiation. And I think when you look at already our 2022 results on both the MAU side, the improvements in the Gen Z, our audience, in Southeast Asia, those are showing that our products and platform is very, very favorable in the competitive marketplace.

但是，有了我們在音樂方面所做的所有改進，以及播客和有聲讀物的加入，這是一種更具彈性的消費者體驗。我對我們的競爭差異化感到非常非常滿意。而且我認為，當您查看我們在 MAU 方面的 2022 年結果時，Z 世代（我們在東南亞的觀眾）的改進表明我們的產品和平台在競爭激烈的市場中非常非常受歡迎。

All right. Thanks, Rich. And that's going to conclude our Q&A session for today's call. And I'm going to turn it now back over to Daniel for some closing remarks.

好的。謝謝，里奇。這將結束我們今天電話會議的問答環節。現在我要把它轉回給 Daniel 做一些結束語。

All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining the call. I'll just once again want to reiterate my confidence in the business now as we're entering the next phase. And while it was really great to close out 2022 on such a high note, the fourth quarter is -- I think we just really one of many proof points that shows that the investments we made over the last few years are really paying dividends. And when I look at the totality of what we've done, one thing that stands out to me, and it is that it's not always linear. We try to draw these linear dots, but that's not how the world works. And what we've been going through has really been a multiyear approach that really culminated with what we presented to you, the community, at our Investor Day in June. .

好的。嗯，謝謝大家加入電話會議。隨著我們進入下一階段，我只想再次重申我對業務的信心。雖然以如此高的成績結束 2022 年真的很棒，但第四季度是——我認為我們只是眾多證明點之一，表明我們在過去幾年所做的投資確實帶來了紅利。當我審視我們所做的全部事情時，有一點對我來說很突出，那就是它並不總是線性的。我們試圖畫出這些線性點，但這不是世界運作的方式。我們一直在經歷的是一種多年的方法，最終以我們在 6 月的投資者日向您和社區展示的內容達到高潮。 .

And that's the plan we're tracking consistently against. So I look forward to sharing more about our evolution and all the things that we're building at our upcoming Stream on event on March 8. And in the meantime, please check out our webcast for the record for more details about the quarter. Thank you, everyone, for joining us.

這就是我們一直在跟踪的計劃。因此，我期待在 3 月 8 日即將舉行的 Stream on 活動中分享更多關於我們的發展和我們正在構建的所有東西。與此同時，請查看我們的網絡廣播以獲取記錄，了解有關本季度的更多詳細信息。謝謝大家加入我們。

Okay. And that concludes today's call. We'll be available on our website and also on the Spotify app under Spotify Earnings Call Replays. And thanks, everyone, for joining.

好的。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們將在我們的網站以及 Spotify Earnings Call Replays 下的 Spotify 應用程序中提供。感謝大家的加入。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。