(SPOT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Spotify Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call.

我的名字是 Regina，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Spotify 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Bryan Goldberg. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給 Bryan Goldberg。請繼續。

Thanks, operator, and welcome to Spotify's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today will be Daniel Ek, our CEO; and Paul Vogel, our CFO. We'll start with opening comments from Daniel and Paul and afterwards, we'll be happy to answer your questions. Questions can be submitted by going to slido.com, S-L-I-D-O.com and using the code #SpotifyEarningsQ322. Analysts can ask questions directly into Slido, and all participants can then vote on the questions they find the most relevant. (Operator Instructions) If for some reason you don't have access to Slido, you can e-mail Investor Relations at ir@spotify.com, and we'll add in your question.

感謝運營商，歡迎參加 Spotify 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天加入我們的將是我們的首席執行官 Daniel Ek；和我們的首席財務官 Paul Vogel。我們將從 Daniel 和 Paul 的評論開始，然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。可以通過訪問 slido.com、S-L-I-D-O.com 並使用代碼 #SpotifyEarningsQ322 提交問題。分析師可以直接向 Slido 提問，然後所有參與者都可以對他們認為最相關的問題進行投票。 （操作員說明）如果由於某種原因您無法訪問 Slido，您可以通過 ir@spotify.com 向投資者關係部發送電子郵件，我們將添加您的問題。

Before we begin, let me quickly cover the safe harbor. During this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements, including projections or estimates about the future performance of the company. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed on today's call, in our letter to shareholders and in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，讓我快速覆蓋安全港。在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括對公司未來業績的預測或估計。這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的電話會議、我們致股東的信函和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

During this call, we'll also refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures. Reconciliations between our IFRS and non-IFRS financial measures can be found in our letter to shareholders, in the financial section of our Investor Relations website and also furnished today on Form 6-K.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將參考某些非 IFRS 財務指標。我們的 IFRS 和非 IFRS 財務措施之間的對賬可以在我們致股東的信中找到，在我們的投資者關係網站的財務部分，也可以在今天的 6-K 表格中提供。

And with that, let's turn it over to Daniel.

有了這個，讓我們把它交給丹尼爾。

All right. Hey, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I hope you had the time to review our results. And as you can see, it was another solid quarter. User growth and subscriber growth keeps humming along very steadily. I've said it before, but it can't be understated: top line growth in the platform is the leading indicator for future success on all other financial metrics.

好的。大家好，感謝您加入我們。我希望您有時間查看我們的結果。正如你所看到的，這是另一個穩定的季度。用戶增長和訂戶增長一直非常穩定。我之前說過，但不能低估：平台的收入增長是所有其他財務指標未來成功的領先指標。

But I want to start by addressing the macro environment, which I know is top of mind for all of you. There's a lot of global uncertainty. But for Spotify, our business continues to perform very nicely around the world. And outside ads, we aren't seeing much impact at all. And the ads business is still growing and will be important, but it remains a relatively small portion of our overall revenue to date.

但我想從宏觀環境開始，我知道這是你們所有人的首要考慮。全球存在很多不確定性。但對於 Spotify，我們的業務在全球範圍內繼續表現良好。而外部廣告，我們根本沒有看到太大的影響。廣告業務仍在增長，並將發揮重要作用，但迄今為止，它在我們總收入中仍然只佔相對較小的一部分。

So if you recall, at our Investor Day in June, I said that I suspect many of you think Spotify is a great product, yet at the same time, you may also think that we're a bad business or at least a business with bad margins for the foreseeable future. And our Q3 results clearly show that our investments in the product and experience have resulted in strong user growth, retention and increased engagement, but they've also been a drag on near-term margins.

因此，如果您還記得，在 6 月的投資者日，我說我懷疑你們中的許多人認為 Spotify 是一個很棒的產品，但同時，您也可能認為我們是一個糟糕的企業，或者至少是一個與在可預見的未來利潤率不佳。我們的第三季度業績清楚地表明，我們對產品和體驗的投資帶來了強勁的用戶增長、留存率和參與度，但它們也拖累了近期的利潤率。

Just to remind everyone, this is all consistent with the strategic decisions we communicated in early 2021 and again at Investor Day. So as we've said, we expect this drag on margins to start to reverse in 2023. As I also shared at Investor Day, LTV, the lifetime value of a user, is the primary tool we use to inform our business decisions and judge whether our strategy and investments are working and achieving better outcomes. And the beauty of LTV is that it factors in the longevity, quality and value of the relationship we have with the user. It is a critical metric to all teams at Spotify.

提醒大家，這與我們在 2021 年初以及在投資者日再次傳達的戰略決策一致。因此，正如我們所說，我們預計這種對利潤率的拖累將在 2023 年開始扭轉。正如我在投資者日也分享的那樣，用戶的生命週期價值 LTV 是我們用來告知我們的業務決策和判斷的主要工具我們的戰略和投資是否奏效並取得更好的成果。 LTV 的美妙之處在於它考慮了我們與用戶之間關係的持久性、質量和價值。這是 Spotify 所有團隊的關鍵指標。

And we're constantly experimenting with what leads our users to stay longer, engage more deeply and ultimately convert to our paid offerings. And what we've seen time and time again is how sticky our users are because of the product and experience that we've created. And I believe we have the lowest churn across our competitive set because of the many ways we keep listeners engaged and happy, and therefore, retained.

我們一直在試驗是什麼讓我們的用戶停留更長時間、更深入地參與並最終轉化為我們的付費產品。我們一次又一次地看到，由於我們創造的產品和體驗，我們的用戶對我們的黏性有多大。我相信我們在整個競爭群體中的流失率最低，因為我們通過多種方式讓聽眾保持參與和快樂，從而留住聽眾。

And because of the strength of this relationship, we know that spending to acquire new users is a worthwhile investment that over time will have a meaningful return. So here's how we think about it: this trade-off is worth making if our actions result in an increase in lifetime value of a user, and we also maintain a healthy customer acquisition cost-to-LTV ratio.

並且由於這種關係的牢固性，我們知道為獲取新用戶而花費是一項值得的投資，隨著時間的推移會產生有意義的回報。所以我們是這樣考慮的：如果我們的行動能夠增加用戶的生命週期價值，並且我們還保持健康的客戶獲取成本與 LTV 比率，那麼這種權衡是值得的。

But I also want to reiterate that we're keenly aware that this is an uncertain time and the cost of capital has increased. So inevitably, you should expect our hurdle rate for new investments to be higher. And consequently, you should also take this to mean that we will be more selective with our overall spending moving forward.

但我還想重申，我們敏銳地意識到這是一個不確定的時期，資本成本已經增加。因此，不可避免地，您應該期望我們的新投資門檻率更高。因此，您還應該認為這意味著我們將在整體支出向前發展時更具選擇性。

We will make new investments with 2 criteria in mind. First, it must be accretive to margin over the investment period given this new hurdle rate. And second, over the long term, that investment must strengthen our value proposition to users and creators alike. This said, new opportunities will likely emerge in downturns. As an example, we may find that our customer acquisition cost goes down as the cost of advertising typically declines in a softer market. This would then offer us a clear opportunity to grow our market share even in a challenging economy because we can acquire users at lower cost relative to LTV.

我們將根據兩個標准進行新的投資。首先，鑑於這個新的門檻率，它必須在投資期內增加保證金。其次，從長遠來看，這項投資必須加強我們對用戶和創作者的價值主張。這就是說，在經濟低迷時期可能會出現新的機會。例如，我們可能會發現我們的客戶獲取成本會隨著廣告成本在疲軟的市場中下降而下降。這將為我們提供一個明確的機會，即使在充滿挑戰的經濟中也能擴大我們的市場份額，因為我們可以以相對於 LTV 更低的成本獲得用戶。

We saw this dynamic play out in the beginning of the pandemic, and we benefited from it. And we expect we would do so this time around should the opportunity present itself as well. And this philosophy is not new for those that have followed us for a while, but I realize that this may frustrate some of you who would prefer we manage to the quarter. Some companies do just that, and I get that's what some investors look for, especially now in this show-me market. But simply put, I don't think that's a winning strategy long term nor is it the right one for Spotify.

我們在大流行開始時就看到了這種動態的表現，我們從中受益。如果機會也出現，我們希望這次我們會這樣做。對於那些關注我們一段時間的人來說，這種理念並不新鮮，但我意識到這可能會讓你們中的一些人感到沮喪，他們希望我們能夠在本季度取得成功。有些公司就是這樣做的，我知道這就是一些投資者所尋求的，尤其是現在在這個展示市場。但簡而言之，我認為這不是一個長期的製勝策略，也不適合 Spotify。

We've been transparent that 2022 was going to be an investment year, which would result in a drag on our gross margin in the short term. This quarter is case in point. But it shouldn't come as a surprise that nothing really has changed with our fundamentals. Our business is strong. We are heading into 2023 with more cost certainty, stronger product and a better user proposition. So this is all playing out largely as we expected despite the macro environment.

我們一直很清楚 2022 年將是投資年，這將在短期內拖累我們的毛利率。本季度就是一個很好的例子。但我們的基本面並沒有真正改變，這不足為奇。我們的業務很強大。我們正以更高的成本確定性、更強大的產品和更好的用戶主張進入 2023 年。因此，儘管存在宏觀環境，這一切都在很大程度上按照我們的預期進行。

Our confidence in our ability to meet our long-term goals and the ambitions we laid out at the Investor Day remains unchanged. And based on the strong demand for our platform amongst consumers and creators this quarter, I believe we will deliver.

我們對實現長期目標的能力以及我們在投資者日制定的雄心壯志的信心保持不變。基於本季度消費者和創作者對我們平台的強烈需求，我相信我們會交付。

With that, I'll hand it over to Paul to go deeper into the numbers, and then Bryan will open it up for the Q&A. Thank you.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Paul 來更深入地研究數字，然後 Bryan 將打開它進行問答。謝謝你。

Great. Thanks, Daniel, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. I'd like to add a bit more color on our operating performance and highlight what we're seeing with respect to the macro environment and then touch upon our outlook.

偉大的。謝謝丹尼爾，也謝謝大家加入我們。我想為我們的經營業績添加更多色彩，並強調我們在宏觀環境方面所看到的情況，然後談談我們的前景。

Starting with our strong user performance. Total monthly active users grew to 456 million in Q3. This was the largest Q3 net additions in our history. And excluding our exit from Russia, our year-to-date net additions are at a record high, and we expect this to sustain throughout year-end.

從我們強大的用戶性能開始。第三季度每月活躍用戶總數增長至 4.56 億。這是我們歷史上最大的第三季度淨增加。不包括我們從俄羅斯的退出，我們年初至今的淨增加量創歷史新高，我們預計這將持續到年底。

Moving to Premium. We finished the quarter with 195 million subscribers, 1 million ahead of guidance, thanks to broad-based strength across regions, particularly Lat Am. Our revenue grew 21% year-over-year to just over EUR 3 billion in the quarter. This was slightly ahead of guidance driven mostly by foreign exchange.

移至高級版。我們在本季度結束時擁有 1.95 億訂戶，比預期高出 100 萬，這要歸功於各地區的廣泛實力，尤其是拉丁美洲。我們的收入在本季度同比增長 21% 至略高於 30 億歐元。這略高於主要由外匯推動的指引。

Our advertising business grew 19% year-on-year and was led by strong double-digit gains in our podcasting business. While this overall result was a bit below expectations, we continue to see encouraging signs that our ad strategy is working despite some of the near-term macro headwinds and particularly the continued strength and interest in SPAN.

我們的廣告業務同比增長 19%，主要得益於播客業務實現兩位數的強勁增長。儘管這一總體結果略低於預期，但我們繼續看到令人鼓舞的跡象，表明我們的廣告策略正在發揮作用，儘管近期存在一些宏觀逆風，尤其是對 SPAN 的持續強勢和興趣。

Turning to gross margin. Gross margin of 24.7% was below guidance by 50 basis points. There are 3 factors that contributed to the results and in order of significance. First, the expected renewal of a large publishing contract outside the U.S. resulted in an accrual adjustment this quarter. The adjustment reflected revised estimates spanning the previous 9 quarters. And while the amounts were immaterial in any single quarter, taken together, they added up to a material impact in Q3.

轉向毛利率。毛利率為 24.7%，低於指引 50 個基點。有 3 個因素對結果有影響，並且按重要性排序。首先，美國以外的大型出版合同的預期續簽導致本季度發生權責發生製調整。調整反映了過去 9 個季度的修訂估計。雖然這些金額在任何一個季度都不重要，但綜合起來，它們在第三季度產生了重大影響。

And second, like many, we did experience some impact to the top line advertising growth from the macro slowdown, and this shortfall had a modest impact on margin. And third, currency fluctuations, mainly the continued strength in the U.S. dollar, had a small impact on cost of revenue. Historically, currency has had a big impact on operating expense and a somewhat minimal impact on cost of revenue. However, given the significant strength of the dollar, it has started to impact gross margin as well.

其次，與許多人一樣，我們確實經歷了宏觀放緩對頂線廣告增長的一些影響，而這種短缺對利潤率的影響不大。第三，貨幣波動，主要是美元的持續走強，對收入成本的影響很小。從歷史上看，貨幣對運營費用的影響很大，而對收入成本的影響則微乎其微。然而，鑑於美元的顯著強勢，它也開始影響毛利率。

Taking a step back, we don't see anything in the results to change our view of the margin potential we laid out at Investor Day. Importantly, we view the publishing renewal in this quarter, along with the recent proposed settlement related to the U.S. CRB on Phonorecord's IV rates as very positive developments. They offer greater cost visibility. And taken together, these 2 deals are consistent with the profitability targets we communicated to you at our Investor Day.

退後一步，我們在結果中看不到任何改變我們對投資者日所提出的保證金潛力的看法。重要的是，我們認為本季度的出版更新以及最近提出的與美國 CRB 就 Phonorecord 的 IV 費率相關的解決方案是非常積極的發展。它們提供了更高的成本可見性。綜上所述，這兩項交易與我們在投資者日向您傳達的盈利目標一致。

Looking at operating expense. Growth in the quarter was slightly lower than forecast on a currency-neutral basis. However, currency fluctuations proved greater than planned. When combined with our modest variance in gross profit, our operating loss was slightly below guidance. Currency continues to be a big impact, adding $85 million to operating expenses or just over 14 percentage points of year-over-year growth.

著眼於營業費用。在貨幣中性的基礎上，本季度的增長略低於預期。然而，事實證明貨幣波動比計劃的要大。再加上我們在毛利潤方面的適度差異，我們的經營虧損略低於指引。貨幣繼續產生重大影響，增加了 8500 萬美元的運營費用，或同比增長略高於 14 個百分點。

And touching on free cash flow, we generated our tenth straight quarter of positive free cash flow. We continue to generate roughly $200 million in free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis. And given the timing within quarters, we may see free cash flow turn negative in Q4, but we still expect to be free cash flow-positive for the year and moving forward.

談到自由現金流，我們連續第十個季度產生了正的自由現金流。在過去的 12 個月中，我們繼續產生大約 2 億美元的自由現金流。考慮到季度內的時間安排，我們可能會看到第四季度的自由現金流轉為負數，但我們仍預計今年和未來的自由現金流為正。

Turning to our outlook. Looking at Q4 and beyond, as Daniel said, we continue to monitor the global macro environment. And to date, we have seen no material impact outside of our ads business. When we began 2022, we said that we expected to see MAU and subscriber net addition growth at roughly similar levels to 2021. As we enter the fourth quarter, we now expect MAU net additions to finish materially higher by year-end, and we see subscriber growth roughly in line with those expectations, excluding the impact of Russia.

轉向我們的前景。正如丹尼爾所說，展望第四季度及以後，我們將繼續監測全球宏觀環境。迄今為止，我們沒有看到廣告業務之外的任何重大影響。當我們在 2022 年開始時，我們表示我們預計 MAU 和訂戶淨增加量的增長將與 2021 年大致相似。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們現在預計 MAU 淨增加量將在年底前大幅增加，我們看到用戶增長大致符合這些預期，不包括俄羅斯的影響。

With respect to Q4 ARPU, we expect it to be up mid-single digits on an as-reported basis. On the advertising front, we are seeing some modest improvement from where we were a month or 2 ago, but the macro environment still has a reasonable amount of uncertainty. As such, we expect another quarter of decelerating growth in Q4, but we continue to remain confident in the long-term potential of the business.

關於第四季度的 ARPU，我們預計它會在報告的基礎上達到中個位數。在廣告方面，與一兩個月前相比，我們看到了一些適度的改善，但宏觀環境仍然存在一定程度的不確定性。因此，我們預計第四季度的增長將再次放緩，但我們繼續對該業務的長期潛力充滿信心。

Our gross margin outlook for Q4 is 24.5%. We recognize this is likely a bit below what many of you have been expecting based on our commentary, exiting our Q1 results for a gross margin of around 25% for the balance of the year. The variance between these figures is primarily a result of 3 factors. One, including the softening macro environment over the course of the year, which is reflected in the current advertising slowdown, we also see another quarter of negative currency exposure. And last, Q4 includes a restructuring charge at our podcasting business, which should lead to improved productivity at select studios on a go-forward basis.

我們對第四季度的毛利率前景為 24.5%。我們認識到這可能比你們許多人根據我們的評論所預期的要低一些，退出我們的第一季度業績，今年餘下的毛利率約為 25%。這些數字之間的差異主要是三個因素的結果。一，包括全年宏觀環境疲軟，這反映在當前的廣告放緩中，我們還看到另一個季度的負貨幣敞口。最後，第四季度包括我們播客業務的重組費用，這應該會在未來的基礎上提高精選工作室的生產力。

All in, we anticipate approximately 70 basis points of impact from these 3 items with the impact spread roughly evenly across each.

總而言之，我們預計這 3 個項目將產生大約 70 個基點的影響，並且影響大致均勻地分佈在每個項目上。

And in closing, despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, we continue to be highly encouraged by the overall trends we have seen year-to-date. We laid out a vision for our business model expansion at our Investor Day, which we still firmly believe we will execute against. This year has been one of investment, hitting both gross margin and operating expense. And while it's too early to provide any guidance with respect to 2023, we do expect our profitability rates to improve relative to 2022 as we grow revenue, lap certain investments and deploy capital more efficiently.

最後，儘管宏觀經濟環境不確定，但我們仍然對今年迄今為止看到的總體趨勢感到非常鼓舞。我們在投資者日為我們的商業模式擴展制定了願景，我們仍然堅信我們會執行。今年是投資之一，毛利率和運營費用都受到影響。雖然現在就 2023 年提供任何指導還為時過早，但我們確實預計，隨著收入的增長、某些投資和更有效地部署資本，我們的盈利率將相對於 2022 年有所提高。

And with that, I'll hand things back to Bryan for Q&A.

有了這個，我會把事情交還給 Bryan 進行問答。

All right. Thanks, Paul. Again, if you've got any questions, please go to slido.com #SpotifyEarningsQ322. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝，保羅。同樣，如果您有任何問題，請訪問 slido.com #SpotifyEarningsQ322。 （操作員說明）

And our first question today is going to come from Matt Thornton on pricing. Can you update us on your thoughts around pricing given the recent increases at Apple Music and YouTube Family? And then secondarily, is there any update on Hi-Fi as either a feature or a separate Premium plan?

我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Matt Thornton 關於定價的問題。鑑於 Apple Music 和 YouTube Family 最近的價格上漲，您能否向我們介紹您對定價的看法？其次，Hi-Fi 是否有任何更新作為功能或單獨的高級計劃？

Yes. So this is Daniel. So maybe just by way of context, so in the last 2 years, we've actually done more than 46 price increases in markets around the world. And I mentioned this on earnings calls before, but the results from these have been conclusively the same, which is it's been as good as we would have hoped for, if not better, in many of these places.

是的。這就是丹尼爾。所以也許只是通過上下文，所以在過去的兩年裡，我們實際上已經在全球市場上進行了超過 46 次價格上漲。我之前在財報電話會議上提到過這一點，但這些結果最終是相同的，也就是說，在許多這些地方，它和我們希望的一樣好，如果不是更好的話。

So take that to believe that we believe we have significant pricing power on this, and we're offering an amazing consumer value proposition. And that just keeps improving with our improvements in the service. So I think when our competitors are increasing their prices, that's really good for us because, again, with our deep engagement that we have and the lowest churn of any competitor, we will likely fare better.

因此，請相信我們相信我們在這方面擁有強大的定價能力，並且我們正在提供一個驚人的消費者價值主張。這只是隨著我們對服務的改進而不斷改進。因此，我認為，當我們的競爭對手提高價格時，這對我們非常有利，因為再次，憑藉我們的深度參與以及所有競爭對手中最低的流失率，我們可能會表現得更好。

So we're set up super well for the coming years. And again, in specific, mostly to the U.S.-based price increases, it is one of the things that we would like to do, and this is a conversation we will have in light of these recent developments with our label partners. And I feel really good about sort of this upcoming year and what that means in pricing in relation to our service.

因此，我們為未來幾年做好了準備。再說一次，特別是主要針對美國的價格上漲，這是我們想做的事情之一，鑑於這些最近的發展，我們將與我們的標籤合作夥伴進行對話。我對即將到來的一年以及這對我們服務的定價意味著什麼感覺非常好。

All right. Next question is going to come from Doug Anmuth on gross margins. How confident are you in 2022 representing a near-term trough on gross margins with inflection in 2023 as laid out at the Investor Day? What are the key drivers? And is there anything that could derail that trajectory?

好的。下一個問題將來自 Doug Anmuth 的毛利率。如投資者日所述，您對 2022 年代表毛利率近期低谷並在 2023 年出現拐點有多大信心？關鍵驅動因素是什麼？有什麼東西可以破壞這條軌跡嗎？

Yes. So I'd say at a high level, we still remain very confident with the margin profile and margin guidance we gave at the Investor Day. We said a number of times that 2022 is going to be an investment year. You've seen it show up in both gross margin and on the operating expense line, and we expect to see improvements as we move into 2023.

是的。所以我想說，在高水平上，我們仍然對我們在投資者日提供的保證金狀況和保證金指導充滿信心。我們多次說過，2022 年將是投資年。您已經看到它在毛利率和運營費用線上都出現了，我們預計隨著我們進入 2023 年會有所改善。

We've talked about particularly things like podcast that has been a drag, and that should turn into less of a drag and then eventually a benefit moving forward. And nothing has changed at all in terms of our expectations there. Obviously, there's some macro uncertainty. So the speed of that turnaround could always be impacted by a quarter or 2 or at least the slope of that turnaround.

我們已經討論了特別是像播客這樣的東西，它一直是一種拖累，應該會減少拖累，然後最終會帶來好處。就我們在那裡的期望而言，一切都沒有改變。顯然，存在一些宏觀不確定性。因此，這種轉變的速度總是會受到四分之一或 2 的影響，或者至少是這種轉變的斜率。

But when you look at sort of the guidance we gave in terms of when we think we could break even and the impact of something like podcast over the long term, nothing has changed at all in terms of our expectations. So we still feel really good about it. Obviously, the macro could impact a little bit the overall speed of that trajectory, but we don't see anything impacting kind of where we're headed at all.

但是，當您查看我們提供的有關我們認為何時可以收支平衡的指導以及播客之類的長期影響時，就我們的期望而言，一切都沒有改變。所以我們仍然對此感覺很好。顯然，宏觀可能會稍微影響該軌蹟的整體速度，但我們根本看不到任何影響我們前進方向的東西。

Yes. And maybe my additions to that, so if you really separate it out from the business standpoint, you can really think about it as 2 major parts of the business at the present moment with more being developed with audiobooks, et cetera. So the 2 major parts is obviously our music business side and then it's our podcasting business side.

是的。也許我對此的補充，所以如果你真的把它從業務的角度分開，你真的可以把它看作是目前業務的兩個主要部分，有聲讀物等等正在開發更多。所以這兩個主要部分顯然是我們的音樂業務方面，然後是我們的播客業務方面。

And as Paul said, on the structural side, on podcasting, we believe that to long term be a much higher gross margin business than the one we're currently in the music, simply because the way to mimic that would be to look at platform type of businesses that usually end up having a higher gross margin than normal services.

正如保羅所說，在結構方面，在播客方面，我們認為長期而言，它的毛利率比我們目前在音樂領域的業務要高得多，僅僅是因為模仿的方法是看平台通常最終毛利率高於正常服務的業務類型。

And then on the music side, in the prior question came a question about pricing. So any pricing we would do would be accretive to that business, too. And as mentioned, we've been selective in doing it during the pandemic in macro environments, and we'll do so opportunistically, too. But if you think in light of our competitors raising prices, that obviously gives us more confidence going into it, too. So we're very bullish long term that we'll get these numbers that we outlined during Investor Day.

然後在音樂方面，在前面的問題中出現了一個關於定價的問題。因此，我們所做的任何定價都會增加該業務。如前所述，在大流行期間，我們在宏觀環境中一直有選擇性地這樣做，我們也會機會主義地這樣做。但是，如果您考慮到我們的競爭對手提高價格，那顯然也讓我們更有信心參與其中。因此，從長遠來看，我們非常看好我們將獲得我們在投資者日期間概述的這些數字。

Okay. Next question from Mario Lu. You recently launched your own site to sell tickets to live events. How is it performing versus internal projections? And does this move the needle for the roughly $200 million of Marketplace revenue expected in 2022 and healthy double-digit growth in 2023 given at the Investor Day or was it already embedded?

好的。馬里奧·盧的下一個問題。您最近推出了自己的網站來銷售現場活動的門票。與內部預測相比，它的表現如何？這是否會為 2022 年預計的大約 2 億美元市場收入和 2023 年投資者日給出的健康兩位數增長帶來變化，還是已經嵌入？

Yes. I'll start with this one, and maybe Paul can add to it. So first, I actually think they're kind of conflating 2 parts. Marketplace does not include the Live business, just to set the record straight there. So we feel really good about the Marketplace business and how that's developing. And we feel really good separately to that of the Live business, although it's very early days. So lots of experimentation of just enabling more ticketing to be available across Spotify.

是的。我將從這個開始，也許保羅可以添加它。因此，首先，我實際上認為它們將兩個部分混為一談。 Marketplace 不包括 Live 業務，只是為了直接在那裡創造記錄。因此，我們對 Marketplace 業務及其發展方式感到非常滿意。我們對 Live 業務的感覺非常好，儘管它還處於早期階段。如此多的實驗只是讓更多票務在 Spotify 上可用。

That ticketing in turn have drove better results. So more people are seeing more tickets, and therefore, as they're seeing more tickets, conversion rates and overall ticket sales has improved, too. So it's early days. I can't disclose any numbers just yet, but we feel encouraged by that part. And then in regards to the numbers that we gave around Marketplace, that's completely separate from that, but we feel really good about where we are with Marketplace business.

這種票務反過來又帶來了更好的結果。因此，越來越多的人看到更多門票，因此，隨著他們看到更多門票，轉換率和整體門票銷售也有所改善。所以現在還早。我還不能透露任何數字，但我們對此感到鼓舞。然後關於我們在 Marketplace 周圍提供的數字，這與那完全不同，但我們對 Marketplace 業務的現狀感到非常滿意。

Yes. Nothing I'll say other than the Marketplace has sort of been trending in line with the expectations throughout the year.

是的。除了 Marketplace 全年的趨勢都符合預期之外，我沒有什麼要說的了。

Okay. Next question from Rich Greenfield. Daniel, you appear increasingly frustrated with Apple. What would you like to see them do that they are not allowing today? Can you give us a couple of examples of issues that are problematic for Spotify? And also, can you update us on the Google Play partnership from earlier this year?

好的。 Rich Greenfield 的下一個問題。丹尼爾，你似乎對蘋果越來越失望。您希望看到他們今天不允許他們做什麼？您能給我們舉幾個 Spotify 存在問題的例子嗎？此外，您能否向我們介紹今年早些時候與 Google Play 的合作關係？

Yes. Sure, Rich. So really, at the core of this is the same argument I've been saying now for about 4 years, which is our view is that this is the next great battle from net-neutrality into what I call the platform-neutrality wars. And the key part that we want to do at Spotify is we want to have the ability to communicate with our customers the way we choose to do that and the way our customers are accepting to have that line of communication. We do not want a gatekeeper or a monopoly in the way to dictate how we communicate with our customers.

是的。當然，里奇。所以說真的，這個論點的核心是我四年來一直在說的同樣的論點，我們的觀點是，這是從網絡中立到我所說的平台中立戰爭的下一場偉大戰鬥。我們想要在 Spotify 做的關鍵部分是，我們希望能夠以我們選擇的方式以及我們的客戶接受這種溝通方式的方式與我們的客戶進行溝通。我們不希望看門人或壟斷者決定我們與客戶溝通的方式。

The second part of that is we think that there ought to be payment method choice by this. So really allow us to use whatever payment method we think is the optimal one and that the customer wants to use. And that's important. And the last part is having the same access. If you are a platform that offers a competing service on that platform, we want to have access to the same level of APIs that you would offer your own service. Those are the 3 big things.

第二部分是我們認為應該有付款方式的選擇。因此，真的允許我們使用我們認為是最佳且客戶想要使用的任何付款方式。這很重要。最後一部分是具有相同的訪問權限。如果您是一個在該平台上提供競爭服務的平台，我們希望能夠訪問與您提供自己的服務相同級別的 API。這是3件大事。

And case in point, actually, there's a New York Times article that I would just highly recommend all of you on the call today to read. I think it just highlights again what's happening there. But the short gist of it -- it's a pretty lengthy article, but the short gist of it is Apple keeps putting up roadblocks of just stopping us more and more and more. I think the app was rejected 3 or 4 times at present moment, really despite us having lawyers in the room to make sure we were compliant with this.

舉個例子，實際上，有一篇《紐約時報》的文章，我強烈建議大家在今天的電話會議上閱讀。我認為它只是再次突出了那裡正在發生的事情。但它的要點 - 這是一篇相當長的文章，但它的要點是蘋果不斷設置路障，越來越多地阻止我們。我認為該應用程序目前被拒絕了 3 或 4 次，儘管我們在房間裡有律師來確保我們遵守這一點。

So they keep moving goalposts, which is exactly what we've said all along. And if you contrast that to trying the same experience now on an Android device and on Google, it is a beautiful experience. So this just showcases that we can build an amazing audiobook experience. However, on iOS, the purchasing flow is inherently broken because Apple decidedly wanted it to be broken.

所以他們一直在移動球門柱，這正是我們一直在說的。如果您將其與現在在 Android 設備和 Google 上嘗試相同的體驗進行對比，那將是一種美妙的體驗。所以這只是展示了我們可以建立一個驚人的有聲讀物體驗。然而，在 iOS 上，購買流程本質上是中斷的，因為 Apple 明確希望它被打破。

And I just think it's absurd, frankly, that they're allowed to keep doing this. So yes, I'm probably more vocal about it because it's insane that it's been taking 4 years to us to get the resolution for something that's just absurd and holding everyone back. It holds developers back, it holds creators back, and it's bad for consumers.

坦率地說，我只是認為允許他們繼續這樣做是荒謬的。所以，是的，我可能對此更加直言不諱，因為我們花了 4 年的時間才對荒謬的事情做出決議並讓每個人都退縮，這太瘋狂了。它阻礙了開發人員，阻礙了創作者，這對消費者不利。

Okay. We've got another one from Doug Anmuth. Can you detail the drivers of softer gross margin for 3Q and in your 4Q outlook? And what changes in 2023?

好的。我們從 Doug Anmuth 那裡得到了另一個。您能否詳細說明第三季度和第四季度毛利率走軟的驅動因素？ 2023年有什麼變化？

Yes. Sure. I'll kind of recap with maybe some detail what I said on the -- on my prepared comments. But -- so in the third quarter, there was a couple of things that impacted the business, and I'll say them in the order of importance. So the first was the reversal of an accrual. As many of you know, oftentimes, we have relationships with our royalty partners. And some of the times, those contracts expire. And as we are negotiating new contracts, we estimate as best we can what we think the expenses we need to incur during that period of time.

是的。當然。我可能會詳細回顧一下我在準備好的評論中所說的話。但是 - 所以在第三季度，有幾件事影響了業務，我將按重要性順序說。因此，第一個是應計項目的逆轉。正如你們許多人所知，我們經常與我們的版稅合作夥伴建立關係。有時，這些合同到期。當我們正在談判新合同時，我們會盡我們所能估計我們認為在這段時間內我們需要產生的費用。

Normally, and in most cases, we're always very conservative. In most cases, it results in us actually getting a slight benefit when we actually settle the contract. In this case, it was a very modest impact. The reason it mattered in this quarter is because the contracts have been expired for over 2 years. And so it was 9 quarters worth of small little adjustments over 9 quarters that we had to take in this quarter. So that was the biggest one.

通常，在大多數情況下，我們總是非常保守。在大多數情況下，當我們實際結算合同時，它實際上會獲得一點好處。在這種情況下，這是一個非常溫和的影響。它在本季度很重要的原因是合同已經到期超過 2 年。因此，我們在本季度必須對 9 個季度進行 9 個季度的小幅調整。所以這是最大的一個。

The second one, as I talked about, was some of the ad softness. Again, it wasn't too material, but the ad softness did have a small modest impact on gross margin and the same thing with currency also. Again, not something we normally call out as part of gross margin. But in this quarter, the currency moves were significant enough to impact it.

第二個，正如我所說的，是一些廣告軟性。同樣，它並不太重要，但廣告的柔軟度確實對毛利率產生了輕微的影響，貨幣也有同樣的影響。同樣，這不是我們通常稱之為毛利率的一部分。但在本季度，匯率變動足以對其產生影響。

Just going back to the first point real quick. I would say that we feel really good, as I said in my comments. Phonorecord IV as well as this international agreement. A lot more cost certainty as we head into 2023, and that cost certainty and the cost of that cost certainty is consistent with the model and the outlook we gave to you at the Investor Day. So we feel really good about all of that.

很快就回到第一點。正如我在評論中所說，我會說我們感覺非常好。 Phonorecord IV 以及這個國際協議。隨著我們進入 2023 年，成本確定性會更高，而且成本確定性和成本確定性的成本與我們在投資者日向您提供的模型和前景一致。所以我們對這一切感覺非常好。

And then with respect to the fourth quarter, there's a couple of things in there. Again, these are probably all in equal amounts, but the ad softness again, relative to some of the investments we made, will have a little bit of an impact there. Currency, again, in 4Q. And then as I said, there is a onetime restructuring charge for some of the changes we made in our podcasting business in a month or so, a couple of weeks ago. And that charge will hit Q4, which runs through cost of revenue.

然後關於第四季度，那裡有幾件事。同樣，這些可能都是等量的，但相對於我們所做的一些投資，廣告的軟化再次會產生一點影響。貨幣再次出現在第四季度。然後正如我所說，我們在幾週前一個月左右對播客業務所做的一些更改需要一次性重組費用。這筆費用將影響到第四季度，這貫穿了收入成本。

All right. We've got a question from Jason Bazinet. Can you please describe the 2 or 3 primary levers you believe will allow you to expand gross profit margins 300 to 500 basis points over the next few years?

好的。我們收到了 Jason Bazinet 的問題。您能否描述一下您認為可以讓您在未來幾年內將毛利率提高 300 至 500 個基點的 2 或 3 個主要槓桿？

Yes. Jason, it's really just a reiteration probably from much of what I said during the Investor Day. So I would just highly recommend you to take a look at that. But in essence, when you look at it, our music business has continuously improved its gross margin. However, we had -- have invested in nonmusic content quite substantially over the past few years, which meant that we were kind of at a level where it looked like our top line gross margin hasn't moved much at all in that process.

是的。傑森，這實際上只是對我在投資者日所說的大部分內容的重申。所以我強烈建議你看一下。但從本質上看，我們的音樂業務的毛利率一直在不斷提高。然而，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經對非音樂內容進行了大量投資，這意味著我們處於一個看起來我們的頂線毛利率在這個過程中根本沒有太大變化的水平。

And so the belief is that we can keep expanding our margin on the music side. And as we've said before, this heavy investment that we've done on the podcasting side is going to reverse in 2023 as it starts moderating. And then last point I would just add is to say that structurally, as the revenue mix shifts to more and more nonmusic content, so both podcasting but also audiobooks, et cetera, those gross margins in those categories is going to be significantly higher than the ones we've had in the music business, too. So that's going to be a net positive as more and more of the revenue starts shifting to those categories. And that adds up to the gross margin improvements that you're talking about and then some when you look at the sort of long-term improvement.

所以我們相信我們可以繼續擴大我們在音樂方面的利潤。正如我們之前所說，隨著播客開始放緩，我們在播客方面所做的巨額投資將在 2023 年逆轉。然後我要補充的最後一點是，從結構上講，隨著收入組合轉向越來越多的非音樂內容，因此播客和有聲讀物等，這些類別的毛利率將顯著高於我們在音樂界也有過。因此，隨著越來越多的收入開始轉向這些類別，這將是一個淨積極因素。這增加了您正在談論的毛利率改善，然後當您查看長期改善時會增加一些。

All right. Another one from Rich Greenfield, this time on competition. The elephant-in-the-room question is TikTok expanding [resi] to more markets as they hire music industry executives. Curious how you think about the threat given TikTok's importance in A&R and music discovery and how Spotify is positioned.

好的。來自 Rich Greenfield 的另一個，這次是在比賽中。房間裡的大象問題是 TikTok 在僱用音樂行業高管時將 [resi] 擴展到更多市場。考慮到 TikTok 在 A&R 和音樂發現中的重要性以及 Spotify 的定位，您想知道您如何看待這種威脅。

Yes. So first off, like many other technology founders, I'm very impressed with how TikTok has been executing. And obviously, it's been formidable to watch their growth and how well they've been executing throughout the year. So we take it very seriously when we look at that.

是的。因此，首先，像許多其他技術創始人一樣，我對 TikTok 的執行方式印象深刻。顯然，觀察他們的成長以及他們全年的執行情況令人生畏。因此，當我們看到它時，我們會非常認真地對待它。

Now that said, we have been in markets with resi for quite some time, and we've seen considerable growth in those markets. So I feel really good about our competitive position as it relates to that. So I feel good about -- yes, we know that they're investing in it. When they've taken share -- they haven't taken share from us. It's been from others. We keep watching it, however. And the key, again, is the only real competitive advantage, I think, in tech, is to move faster than everyone else. So this is also part of the reason how you should look at our backdrop of investing so much as we have done in this past year because we want to move faster.

話雖如此，我們在 resi 市場已經有很長一段時間了，我們已經看到這些市場有相當大的增長。因此，我對我們的競爭地位感到非常滿意，因為它與此相關。所以我感覺很好——是的，我們知道他們正在投資。當他們分享時——他們沒有從我們那里分享。是別人寄來的。然而，我們一直在關注它。再一次，我認為，在科技領域，唯一真正的競爭優勢是比其他人更快地行動。因此，這也是您應該如何看待我們在過去一年中所做的大量投資背景的部分原因，因為我們希望加快步伐。

So I mentioned this in the last earnings call, but the number of experiments that we do, the number of product improvements that we do each quarter is a metric that I look at and -- as probably the most important leading indicator for long-term success. So that makes me feel good because we've really kind of improved our product velocity over this year. And I think you're starting to see it already in the product, but you will certainly start seeing a lot more of it coming into 2023.

所以我在上次財報電話會議中提到了這一點，但我們所做的實驗數量，我們每個季度所做的產品改進數量是我關注的一個指標，並且可能是長期最重要的領先指標成功。所以這讓我感覺很好，因為我們在今年確實提高了我們的產品速度。而且我認為你已經開始在產品中看到它，但到 2023 年你肯定會開始看到更多。

Right. Next question from Doug Anmuth. What does the Spotify machine look like in 5-plus years? What gives you confidence that Spotify can have as much success with audiobooks and other products as it has with podcasts?

正確的。 Doug Anmuth 的下一個問題。 5 年多後 Spotify 機器會是什麼樣子？是什麼讓您相信 Spotify 在有聲讀物和其他產品方面可以像在播客方面一樣取得成功？

Yes. Sure. So first and foremost, just as a reminder for people what the Spotify machine is, it's really a framework of how to think about Spotify, where the predominant way to think about it is that it's one user experience shared across many verticals of content. And what that enables us to do is to leverage all the key technology, so all the pillars that we built Spotify throughout the year. So freemium, personalization, ubiquity, all of those facets.

是的。當然。因此，首先，作為對人們 Spotify 機器是什麼的提醒，它實際上是一個關於如何思考 Spotify 的框架，其中主要的思考方式是它是跨許多垂直內容共享的一種用戶體驗。這使我們能夠做的是利用所有關鍵技術，以及我們全年構建 Spotify 的所有支柱。所以免費增值、個性化、無處不在，所有這些方面。

And in addition to that, obviously, it enables us to go and take the scale of the existing audience base and cross-sell to new verticals to gain ground faster. So when you look at that from music to podcasting, the reason why we've been so successful is because we've been able to upsell people who never listened to podcast before to start listening on Spotify, and that is what got us to the #1 position in podcasting.

除此之外，顯然，它使我們能夠擴大現有受眾群的規模，並交叉銷售到新的垂直領域，以更快地獲得市場份額。所以當你從音樂到播客來看，我們之所以如此成功，是因為我們能夠向以前從未聽過播客的人追加銷售，讓他們開始在 Spotify 上收聽，這就是讓我們進入在播客中排名第一。

And so our belief when you look at the audiobooks market is that while books is a pretty big industry, audiobooks is still a niche offering only enjoyed by tens of millions of consumers around the world. And if you think about that from first principles, it's pretty clear that audiobooks should be something that should be enjoyed by hundreds of millions of people, if not billions of people, around the world. So to grow that market is absolutely key for us.

因此，當您查看有聲讀物市場時，我們的信念是，雖然書籍是一個相當大的行業，但有聲讀物仍然是一種只有全球數千萬消費者才能享受的利基產品。如果你從第一原則考慮這一點，很明顯，有聲讀物應該是全世界數億人甚至數十億人都應該享受的東西。因此，發展這個市場對我們來說絕對是關鍵。

And so the way to think about the Spotify machine is we are investing in better freemium experience, better personalization, better ubiquity experience that then benefits more and more of these verticals. And in addition to that, you should expect us to add more and more of these verticals so that we can get to sort of double whammy.

因此，對 Spotify 機器的思考方式是，我們正在投資於更好的免費增值體驗、更好的個性化、更好的普及體驗，從而使越來越多的這些垂直領域受益。除此之外，您應該期望我們添加越來越多的這些垂直領域，以便我們能夠獲得雙重打擊。

And in a way, I actually think about that -- if you want an analogy, there's probably healthy ones on the B2B business sides, where the hard thing was to get distribution and get the customers in the door, but then a Salesforce or someone else then kept adding more and more products to leverage that existing distribution channel that they've built.

在某種程度上，我實際上是這樣想的——如果你想打個比方，B2B 業務方面可能有健康的，其中困難的是獲得分銷並讓客戶上門，但然後是 Salesforce 或其他人否則，繼續添加越來越多的產品以利用他們建立的現有分銷渠道。

So you can think about the Spotify machine as our ability to do that where we're going deeper and deeper into each vertical with more and more of a business offering but leveraging the distribution we have to consumers. So there's plenty of opportunities to expand in the coming years.

因此，您可以將 Spotify 機器視為我們這樣做的能力，我們正在越來越深入地進入每個垂直領域，提供越來越多的業務產品，但利用我們對消費者的分銷。因此，未來幾年有很多擴展的機會。

All right. Next question from Batya Levi on podcasting. Can you provide more color on podcast engagement and your expectations to reach profitability in this part of the business?

好的。 Batya Levi 關於播客的下一個問題。您能否就播客參與度以及您在這部分業務中實現盈利的期望提供更多色彩？

Yes. So engagement in podcast has been strong. We've seen podcast MAU as a percent of our total MAU continue to increase. It was up again in Q3. And then podcast consumption per podcast MAU is also up year-on-year. So we've seen really strong trends in general across all of podcasting.

是的。因此，播客的參與度一直很高。我們已經看到播客 MAU 占我們總 MAU 的百分比繼續增加。它在第三季度再次上漲。然後每個播客 MAU 的播客消費量也同比增長。因此，我們在所有播客中都看到了非常強勁的趨勢。

And as we continue to build out the tools and services to monetize, continue to expand the audience, continue to grow reach, we feel like we're right on track with our ability to generate the profitability that we mentioned earlier on the call and also at the Investor Day.

隨著我們繼續構建工具和服務以實現貨幣化、繼續擴大受眾、繼續擴大影響範圍，我們覺得我們正在走上正軌，我們有能力創造我們之前在電話會議上提到的盈利能力，而且在投資者日。

All right. Next question from Deepak. Your fourth quarter guidance implies Premium subscriber net adds of 22 million for 2022 versus 25 million in 2021 and 31 million in 2020. What's the right way to think about annual net sub adds for 2023 and beyond?

好的。迪帕克的下一個問題。您的第四季度指導意味著 2022 年的高級用戶淨增加量為 2200 萬，而 2021 年為 2500 萬，2020 年為 3100 萬。考慮 2023 年及以後的年度淨訂閱量的正確方法是什麼？

Yes. So let's first look at 2022. Keep in mind that, that number in 2022 includes Russia and the impact of us exiting Russia. And so when you look at it more on an organic year-over-year basis, 2021 and 2022 are very similar in terms of net additions. You just have to back out the impact of our withdrawal from Russia, which was impactful. So that's number one. So when you're looking at comparisons.

是的。因此，讓我們首先看一下 2022 年。請記住，2022 年的這個數字包括俄羅斯以及我們退出俄羅斯的影響。因此，當您更多地從有機年度同比來看時，2021 年和 2022 年在淨增加方面非常相似。你只需要取消我們從俄羅斯撤軍的影響，這是有影響的。所以這是第一名。因此，當您查看比較時。

And then second, we haven't given any guidance on 2023 yet. We'll do that in our next quarter call. So we feel really good about the subscriber growth we've had this year. And like I said, if you back out Russia, it's right in line to even slightly better than our expectations.

其次，我們還沒有對 2023 年給出任何指導。我們將在下個季度電話會議中這樣做。因此，我們對今年的訂戶增長感到非常滿意。就像我說的那樣，如果你退出俄羅斯，那甚至比我們的預期還要好一些。

All right. Deepak's got a follow-up on gross margins. Can you unpack the gross margin expectations between Premium versus ads in the fourth quarter guide? And importantly, how should we think about the Premium gross margin expansion in 2023?

好的。 Deepak 對毛利率進行了跟進。您能否在第四季度指南中解開溢價與廣告之間的毛利率預期？重要的是，我們應該如何看待 2023 年的溢價毛利率擴張？

So when you look at what we've reported, obviously, any -- we talked about overall gross margins, but any of the overall weakness or softness in Q3 on the ads -- the revenue side is going to impact the ads business from a gross margin perspective, and they won't hit the Premium side. And most of the other impacts on consolidated gross margin are going to kind of be evenly distributed across both.

因此，當您查看我們報告的內容時，顯然，任何——我們談到了整體毛利率，但第三季度廣告的整體疲軟或疲軟——收入方面將從從毛利率的角度來看，他們不會打到溢價方面。對綜合毛利率的大多數其他影響將在兩者之間平均分配。

And again, as we look into 2023, I'll just sort of reiterate what I said: 2022 has been an investment year. We've had a couple of things in Q3 and Q4 which I've identified, which are -- which have been an impact on the Q3 and Q4 gross margin. But we look at 2023 as a year where you'll start to see the dynamic of revenue and cost growth start to reverse. As Daniel mentioned, we're continuing to look at and be thoughtful about how we greenlight and deploy our capital. And we still feel really good about the long-term model and the profile we gave to you at the Investor Day.

再一次，當我們展望 2023 年時，我將重申我所說的：2022 年是投資年。我已經確定了第三季度和第四季度的一些事情，它們對第三季度和第四季度的毛利率產生了影響。但我們將 2023 年視為您將開始看到收入和成本增長動態開始逆轉的一年。正如丹尼爾所提到的，我們將繼續關注並考慮我們如何批准和部署我們的資本。我們仍然對我們在投資者日向您提供的長期模式和概況感到非常滿意。

My only addition is, I kind of said this comment already, but I think you should expect the music margin, as it has been, to keep ticking up. But the real sort of negative drag on margin had been the podcasting side. And that is also a lot more within our control in terms of how we allocate the expenses on that part of the business as well. And we've been investing quite heavily.

我唯一的補充是，我已經說過這個評論了，但我認為你應該期待音樂利潤繼續上升。但真正對利潤造成負面影響的是播客方面。就我們如何分配這部分業務的費用而言，這也在我們的控制範圍內。我們一直在大力投資。

All right. Next question from Eric Sheridan on the ad market. Can you talk about the current state of trends that you're seeing with respect to audio digital advertising, especially any nuances by type of advertiser or geographic impacts? Also, anything on exit velocity to the ad business in September that you can share?

好的。 Eric Sheridan 關於廣告市場的下一個問題。您能否談談您在音頻數字廣告方面看到的當前趨勢狀態，尤其是廣告客戶類型或地理影響方面的任何細微差別？此外，您可以分享有關 9 月份廣告業務退出速度的任何信息嗎？

Yes. So from a geographic perspective, we saw the softness really mostly in EMEA, a little bit in North America, but we saw in EMEA. Obviously, the war and the economy have impacted those businesses. Even in places like the U.K., we actually had some paused advertisement for a week around the Queen's passing, which also impacted our business. And so we definitely saw it most there from a geographic perspective.

是的。因此，從地理角度來看，我們主要在歐洲、中東和非洲地區看到了疲軟，在北美也有一點，但我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區也看到了。顯然，戰爭和經濟已經影響了這些企業。即使在像英國這樣的地方，我們實際上也有一些在女王去世前後暫停了一周的廣告，這也影響了我們的業務。因此，從地理角度來看，我們肯定是在那裡看到的最多。

In terms of exit velocity, when you look at October, it's a little bit of a nuanced answer. We obviously had seen some of the trends kind of moderate throughout Q3. If you would have kind of look at where we were a month ago to where we are now, the October numbers look a little bit better than where we thought they'd be a month ago, but there's still uncertainty in those numbers.

就退出速度而言，當您查看 10 月份時，答案有點微妙。我們顯然在整個第三季度看到了一些溫和的趨勢。如果你看看我們一個月前的情況和現在的情況，10 月份的數字看起來比我們一個月前的預期要好一些，但這些數字仍然存在不確定性。

Paul, you should probably mention what you told me before, too, about sort of the uptake from advertisers.

保羅，你可能也應該提到你之前告訴我的關於廣告商的接受程度。

Yes. Also -- it's a great point. So one of the things that we look at to monitor the health of the advertising business and kind of discern between what's macro and what is structural is when you look at SPAN and you look at the number of advertisers that are participating in SPAN, that continues to move up. And so even though the macro may impact how much they're spending in any one period of time, which is obviously macro-related, when you look at it from a pure structural standpoint, we feel really good about what we're offering and the number of advertisers that are participating in that ecosystem. And so the fact that we're seeing that up year-on-year and continue to grow shows us that we believe that the overall structural health of our -- the ads business that we are building at Spotify is very healthy.

是的。另外——這是一個很好的觀點。因此，當您查看 SPAN 並查看參與 SPAN 的廣告商數量時，我們要監控廣告業務的健康狀況以及區分什麼是宏觀和結構性的東西之一，這種情況仍在繼續向上移動。因此，即使宏觀可能會影響他們在任何一段時間內的支出，這顯然與宏觀相關，但當你從純粹的結構角度來看時，我們對我們提供的產品感覺非常好，並且參與該生態系統的廣告商數量。因此，我們看到同比增長並繼續增長的事實表明，我們相信我們在 Spotify 建立的廣告業務的整體結構健康狀況非常健康。

Yes. And my only 2 additions as a piece of context for everyone on the call is, on the one hand, I think as Paul said, the important thing is to decide whether this is a cyclical or a structural thing. And it's our firm view that this is more cyclical than structural. So the long-term growth of digital advertising is still going to be healthy, we believe, and there's more off-line dollars that's going to move to digital dollars.

是的。作為電話會議中每個人的背景，我唯一的兩個補充是，一方面，我認為正如保羅所說，重要的是要確定這是周期性的還是結構性的。我們堅信，這比結構性更具週期性。因此，我們相信，數字廣告的長期增長仍將是健康的，並且有更多的線下資金將轉向數字資金。

But in regards of audio advertising as well, I think we are in a great position because relative to the competitive marketplace, there's a lot of services and platforms out there that offer video advertising and display advertising, but that is in competition to each other. And if you think about Spotify now in relation to all of that, if you want to advertise via audio and in this case, you want to reach customers in the car or as they're commuting, that's just one example, or on the go, on mobile devices, Spotify is the place to advertise for them.

但在音頻廣告方面，我認為我們處於有利地位，因為相對於競爭激烈的市場，有很多提供視頻廣告和展示廣告的服務和平台，但這是相互競爭的。如果您現在考慮將 Spotify 與所有這些相關聯，如果您想通過音頻做廣告，在這種情況下，您想在車內或上下班時吸引客戶，這只是一個示例，或者在旅途中，在移動設備上，Spotify 是為他們做廣告的地方。

So I think we sit in a very different bucket than an advertiser thinking about if they're going to spend a video dollar, there's plenty of places to think about where to do that where there's much fewer on the audio side and it's really one leader, which is Spotify. And then in addition, I do want to highlight perhaps something that's obvious, but ads is just a very small part of our business at current state. So any headwinds in the advertising business for us is just a lot smaller than it is for platforms that solely rely on ads.

所以我認為我們坐在一個非常不同的桶裡，而不是廣告商考慮他們是否要花一分錢視頻，有很多地方可以考慮在哪裡做這件事，音頻方面要少得多，而且它真的是一個領導者，即 Spotify。此外，我確實想強調一些顯而易見的事情，但在當前狀態下，廣告只是我們業務的一小部分。因此，對我們而言，廣告業務中的任何不利因素都比僅依賴廣告的平台要小得多。

So when you think about our product road map, I would suspect that when you compare that to some of the other platform companies, they probably have to realign and redo quite a lot of their product road maps based on the headwinds that they're seeing because it's just pretty material for them, whereas for us, this is a much smaller part of our business. And it's important long term, but in the short term, it impacts us a lot less when there are headwinds.

因此，當您考慮我們的產品路線圖時，我懷疑當您將其與其他一些平台公司進行比較時，他們可能不得不根據他們看到的不利因素重新調整併重做很多產品路線圖因為這對他們來說很重要，而對我們來說，這只是我們業務的一小部分。從長遠來看，這很重要，但在短期內，當遇到逆風時，它對我們的影響要小得多。

All right. We've got a question from Steven Cahall on pricing. When you think about price increases, how do label terms impact your thinking? Is there scope to align interest by agreeing that incremental pricing will be a lower share of royalties so you and the label share in the upside?

好的。我們收到了 Steven Cahall 關於定價的問題。當您考慮價格上漲時，標籤條款如何影響您的想法？通過同意增量定價將是較低的版稅份額，從而使您和標籤份額上升，是否有空間來調整利益？

Yes. I mean I can't comment on the specifics on any of the label terms. But again, any price increases that we choose to do should be net-net a win-win for both parties. So that's definitely part of any conversations when we're talking about pricing with our label partners, as you could imagine, even in the past and in the context of the 46 price increases we've already made.

是的。我的意思是我不能評論任何標籤條款的細節。但同樣，我們選擇做的任何價格上漲都應該是淨淨雙贏的。因此，正如您可以想像的那樣，當我們與我們的標籤合作夥伴討論定價時，這絕對是任何對話的一部分，即使在過去以及我們已經進行了 46 次提價的背景下也是如此。

All right. Next question is coming from Benjamin Black. Could you talk about the launch of audiobooks, what the early takeaways have been or any feedback you can share? And how do you envision evolving the product from here?

好的。下一個問題來自本傑明·布萊克。您能否談談有聲讀物的推出、早期的收穫或您可以分享的任何反饋？您如何設想從這裡發展產品？

Again, it's super early days. So I think the really healthy metrics for me is to look at engagement and retention among the audiobooks purchasers that we're having, and that looks just very solid. So it's early but good engagement overall. We see it being additive to all the other engagement that's happening on the platform, which was our hope, ambition. So it's nice to see that being played out.

再次，它是超級早期。所以我認為對我來說真正健康的指標是查看我們擁有的有聲讀物購買者的參與度和保留率，這看起來非常可靠。因此，總體而言，這是早期但良好的參與。我們認為它是對平台上發生的所有其他參與的補充，這是我們的希望和抱負。所以很高興看到它被播放出來。

Now that said and as I said earlier in the call, the purchasing experience, in particular on iOS, has been below expectation on our side. That's obviously without our control, and it's something that we're working on trying to prove. And I feel good about where we will end up in -- despite of all of that in 2023, and that will allow us to scale. We kind of knew this was one of the possible scenarios, and we've been planning for that. But I'm disappointed, obviously, in all the Apple back and forth.

話雖如此，正如我之前在電話會議中所說，購買體驗，尤其是在 iOS 上，一直低於我們的預期。這顯然是我們無法控制的，我們正在努力證明這一點。我對我們最終會在哪裡感覺很好——儘管在 2023 年會發生所有這些，這將使我們能夠擴大規模。我們有點知道這是可能的情況之一，我們一直在為此做計劃。但顯然，我對所有蘋果的來回感到失望。

All right. Our next question is going to come from [Brett Schafer]. What needs to happen for Discovery Mode and the two-sided marketplace to take its next step and continue to expand Premium margins?

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自 [Brett Schafer]。探索模式和雙邊市場需要做什麼才能邁出下一步並繼續擴大溢價利潤率？

Yes. Overall, it's really 2 parts of this 2-sided part. One is demand, and the other one is obviously supply. So if you think about it in very simplistic terms, more artists, more releases, participating helps on the one side of it and then a more inventory, high demand from consumers, and seeing that Marketplace-type products helps with that. And so it's a constant sort of pulling levers on both sides for us to try to expand that. And that's what we're doing, and it's kind of more of the same really rather than any major innovation.

是的。總的來說，它實際上是這個 2 面部分的 2 個部分。一個是需求，另一個顯然是供給。因此，如果您以非常簡單的方式考慮它，更多的藝術家，更多的發行，參與一方面會有所幫助，然後是更多的庫存，消費者的高需求，並且看到市場類型的產品對此有所幫助。因此，我們不斷地在兩邊拉動槓桿，試圖擴大它。這就是我們正在做的事情，它實際上更像是相同的，而不是任何重大創新。

The other thing I would add is, within the question sort of implying that the Marketplace isn't helping margins, it's actually helping margins a lot. We've just chosen to take some of the benefit from the Marketplace growth and reinvest it in our business, which is why you haven't seen the consolidated gross margin expand. But we feel really good about the benefit we've seen from Marketplace and its ability to drive margins in the future. And again, right now, that's just being masked by some of the investment we've chosen to make. Again, not sounding like a broken record, but kind of what we've talked about throughout 2022.

我要補充的另一件事是，在暗示市場對利潤率沒有幫助的問題中，它實際上對利潤率有很大幫助。我們剛剛選擇從市場增長中獲得一些收益，並將其重新投資於我們的業務，這就是為什麼您沒有看到合併毛利率擴大的原因。但我們對我們從 Marketplace 看到的好處以及它在未來提高利潤率的能力感到非常滿意。再說一次，現在，這只是被我們選擇進行的一些投資所掩蓋。同樣，聽起來不像是破紀錄，而是我們在整個 2022 年一直在談論的內容。

All right. Next question is going to come from Justin Patterson. Can you discuss how you're thinking about the pace of head count investment in this environment? Are there opportunities to slow OpEx growth and focus more on productivity?

好的。下一個問題將來自賈斯汀帕特森。您能談談您如何看待這種環境下的人數投資步伐嗎？是否有機會減緩運營支出增長並更加關註生產力？

Yes. Well, as I said in my opening remarks, this is definitely -- we're keenly aware that this is a very different macro environment than the one we've previously been in before. And I know some investors may not think that I care because I'm focused on the long term, but I do. So for me, what that really means is that cost of capital has increased. And when cost of capital increases, that means that the hurdle rate that we're doing for any new investment needs to increase.

是的。好吧，正如我在開場白中所說，這絕對是——我們敏銳地意識到，這是一個與我們之前所處的環境截然不同的宏觀環境。而且我知道有些投資者可能不認為我在乎，因為我專注於長期，但我確實如此。所以對我來說，這真正意味著資本成本增加了。當資本成本增加時，這意味著我們為任何新投資所做的障礙率需要增加。

In addition to that, we had already planned to probably slow down some of our OpEx increases for 2023. But obviously, in light of even more uncertainty, it's even more prudent to take a big look at those numbers and obviously manage that OpEx side much better than we have. And Paul can probably share more context on that, but I just wanted to say that from my side.

除此之外，我們已經計劃可能會放慢 2023 年的部分 OpEx 增長。但顯然，鑑於更多的不確定性，更謹慎地審視這些數字並明顯管理 OpEx 方面比我們更好。保羅可能可以分享更多關於這方面的背景，但我只是想從我這邊說一下。

Yes. I mean we -- obviously, we'll give sort of more guidance and clarity on 2023 on our next earnings call. But as I said a couple of times, I think you can expect that dynamic of revenue growth and expense growth to flip from where it's been over the past couple of years and start to see that focus shift in sort of how we manage the business. And we invested a lot in this year to set ourselves up for the future in terms of people and product and being able to build what we needed to have. And then the hope is to start to leverage some of that investment over the next year or 2.

是的。我的意思是我們——顯然，我們將在 2023 年的下一次財報電話會議上提供更多指導和明確說明。但正如我多次說過的那樣，我認為您可以預期收入增長和費用增長的動態將從過去幾年的水平轉變，並開始看到我們管理業務的重點轉移。我們在今年投入了大量資金，以在人員和產品方面為未來做好準備，並能夠構建我們需要擁有的東西。然後希望在未來一兩年內開始利用部分投資。

All right. We've got time just for a couple more questions here. The next one is going to come from Rich Greenfield. Are there ways to be more innovative on price and functionality on your service besides an all-you-can-eat product for a fixed price?

好的。我們有時間在這裡再提幾個問題。下一個將來自 Rich Greenfield。除了以固定價格提供吃到飽的產品之外，還有其他方法可以在服務的價格和功能上更具創新性嗎？

Yes. So I think the high-level way of thinking about it is Spotify has predominantly, up until now, been a subscription, as you say, all-you-can-eat service. All that said, a few years ago, we started investing in advertising being the other way. So you can think about raising ARPUs as a combination of either being on subscription or either on ads. And it's kind of interesting to see how people are blending the 2 together now on the video side. So that might be an opportunity where consumers may not see the price point is increasing, but effectively, the ARPU is increasing. So that's one.

是的。所以我認為高級別的思考方式是，到目前為止，Spotify 主要是訂閱，正如你所說的，吃到飽的服務。儘管如此，幾年前，我們開始以另一種方式投資廣告。因此，您可以考慮通過訂閱或廣告來提高 ARPU。看到人們現在如何在視頻方面將兩者融合在一起，這有點有趣。所以這可能是一個機會，消費者可能看不到價格點在增加，但實際上，ARPU 正在增加。所以這是一個。

And then the second part is a la carte to the mix, too. So as you can see, the other way to raise ARPU, and you've seen us do that now a few times. So you have audiobooks, which is bought a la carte. You also have live concert tickets that's also now bought a la carte. So it's really the 3 modalities of revenue playing together rather than thinking about us as predominantly a subscription service even though, obviously, that's where the majority of the revenues come from today.

然後第二部分也是點菜。如您所見，提高 ARPU 的另一種方式，您已經看到我們現在這樣做了幾次。所以你有有聲讀物，是點菜買的。您還有現場音樂會門票，現在也可以點菜購買。因此，這實際上是三種收入模式共同發揮作用，而不是將我們視為主要的訂閱服務，儘管很明顯，這就是今天大部分收入的來源。

So I think that gives us a lot more flexibility. And then we're already innovating quite a lot on the all-you-can-eat model, in particular in Southeast Asia. So you should take a look at what we're doing there, if you want to see some sort of early indicators of things that we might scale if it makes sense to other parts of the world there, too. So lots of innovation on -- I took it to mean sort of ARPU increase rather than price increase over the coming year. So a lot more to come there.

所以我認為這給了我們更多的靈活性。然後我們已經在自助餐模式上進行了很多創新，特別是在東南亞。所以你應該看看我們在那裡做什麼，如果你想看到一些我們可能會擴展的早期指標，如果它對世界其他地方也有意義的話。如此多的創新——我認為這意味著 ARPU 的增加而不是來年的價格上漲。所以還有很多東西要來。

All right. We've got time for one more question. That's going to come from Deepak on podcasting. Can you discuss your return expectations on podcast content investments for 2023? And is the rising cost of capital environment causing you to revisit the planned levels of investment on podcasts?

好的。我們還有時間再問一個問題。這將來自 Deepak 的播客。您能否談談您對 2023 年播客內容投資的回報預期？資本環境成本的上升是否導致您重新審視播客的計劃投資水平？

Yes. I would probably answer this question in a couple of different ways. One is we look at all of our content investment through the lens of returns and the impact on LTV across all of Spotify. So we're going to continue to lean into looking at every investment we make and is that increasing or decreasing and having a positive impact on LTV. So that's number one.

是的。我可能會以幾種不同的方式回答這個問題。一是我們從回報的角度來看待我們所有的內容投資，以及對整個 Spotify 的 LTV 的影響。因此，我們將繼續關注我們所做的每一項投資，以及增加或減少對 LTV 產生積極影響的投資。所以這是第一名。

Number two is, I think as Daniel mentioned, right, the cost of capital has gone up. And so any investments we make, any continued growth we make, the hurdle rate is definitely going to be higher moving forward. And so we'll continue to be thoughtful and careful about how we commit our capital.

第二是，我認為正如丹尼爾所說，對，資本成本上升了。因此，我們進行的任何投資，我們進行的任何持續增長，未來的障礙率肯定會更高。因此，我們將繼續深思熟慮並謹慎對待我們如何投入資金。

And then third, not surprisingly, we are constantly looking at and modeling out the impact of both our content investment as well as the advertising that goes on top of it as well as any benefits we get to engagement and user growth and looking at the 3 of those combined to make decisions on how much we want to invest going forward. And nothing will change in that sense.

第三，毫不奇怪，我們一直在關注和建模我們的內容投資以及在其之上的廣告的影響，以及我們對參與度和用戶增長的任何好處，並著眼於 3這些因素結合起來決定我們未來要投資多少。從這個意義上說，一切都不會改變。

Yes. And my only addition to that is, as we said at Investor Day, we were expecting margins to improve in 2023, and that's obviously a function of us growing revenue faster than we're growing content cost. So that's been our plan all along for 2023 and being consistent with what we've been communicating before.

是的。我唯一的補充是，正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們預計 2023 年的利潤率會有所提高，這顯然是因為我們的收入增長速度快於內容成本的增長速度。因此，這一直是我們 2023 年的計劃，並且與我們之前一直在溝通的內容保持一致。

All right. Thank you, Deepak, and thanks, everyone, for the questions. That concludes our Q&A session. And I'll turn the call back over to Daniel for some closing remarks.

好的。謝謝你，迪帕克，謝謝大家的提問。我們的問答環節到此結束。我會將電話轉回給 Daniel，讓我做一些結束語。

All right. Well, thank you, Bryan, and thank you, everyone, for listening to today's earnings call. So I'll really close by saying that with 1 quarter left in a year that's seen war, a lingering pandemic, inflation, supply chain disruption and threats of a global recession, I'm just really proud of all that we've accomplished and that despite all of this, we're precisely where we thought we'd be.

好的。好吧，謝謝你，布萊恩，謝謝大家收聽今天的財報電話會議。最後，我要說的是，在一年中還有一個季度經歷了戰爭、揮之不去的流行病、通貨膨脹、供應鏈中斷和全球衰退的威脅，我真的為我們所取得的一切感到自豪，並且儘管有這一切，我們正是我們認為我們會在的地方。

And while there may be more roadblocks than there were in the past, we remain incredibly confident in the course we've chartered and in the destination we mapped out for ourselves, and we will be more nimble and more prudent as the times demand. So for more details and more context, please check out For The Record podcast that will be dropping later this evening. Thank you, everyone, for tuning in.

儘管可能會遇到比過去更多的障礙，但我們對我們包租的路線和為自己規劃的目的地仍然充滿信心，我們將隨著時代的需要變得更加靈活和謹慎。因此，有關更多詳細信息和更多背景信息，請查看今晚晚些時候將發布的 For The Record 播客。謝謝大家收看。

All right. And that concludes today's call. A replay will be available on our website and also on the Spotify app under Spotify Earnings Call Replays. Thanks, everyone, for joining.

好的。今天的電話會議到此結束。重播將在我們的網站以及 Spotify 應用程序的 Spotify Earnings Call Replays 下提供。謝謝大家的加入。