Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGIP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day. Welcome to the Selective Insurance Group first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

再會。歡迎參加 Selective Insurance Group 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call may be recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話可能會被錄音。

I would like to turn the call over to Brad Wilson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁兼財務主管布拉德威爾森 (Brad Wilson)。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you for joining Selective's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

早安.感謝您參加 Selective 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, we posted our earnings press release, financial supplement, and investor presentation on selective.com's Investor section. A replay of the webcast will be available there, shortly after this call.

昨天，我們在selective.com的投資者部分發布了我們的收益新聞稿、財務補充和投資者介紹。本次電話會議結束後不久，即可在那裡重播網路直播。

John Marchioni, our Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Brennan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will discuss first-quarter results and take your questions.

我們的董事會主席、總裁兼執行長 John Marchioni 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Patrick Brennan 將討論第一季業績並回答您的問題。

John and Patrick will reference non-GAAP measures that we and the investment community use to make it easier to evaluate our insurance business. These non-GAAP measures include operating income, operating return on common equity, and adjusted book value per common share. The financial supplements on our website include GAAP reconciliations to any referenced non-GAAP financial measures.

約翰和派崔克將參考我們和投資界使用的非公認會計準則指標，以便更容易評估我們的保險業務。這些非公認會計準則指標包括營業收入、普通股經營回報率和調整後每股帳面價值。我們網站上的財務補充資料包括 GAAP 與任何引用的非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

We will also make statements and projections about our future performance. These are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, not guarantees of future performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that we disclose in our annual, quarterly, and current reports filed with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

我們也將對我們的未來表現做出聲明和預測。這些是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》做出的前瞻性陳述，並不能保證未來的表現。這些聲明受到我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度、季度和當前報告中披露的風險和不確定性的影響。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Now, I'll turn the call over to John.

現在，我將把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Brad. Good morning.

謝謝，布拉德。早安.

We delivered a solid start to the year, with an overall combined ratio of 96.1% and after-tax net investment income of $96 million. Return on equity and operating return on equity were 14.4%. Net premiums written grew to 7%, driven by Excess and Surplus Lines and Standard Commercial Lines. Personalized premium decrease by 12%, as we improve that portfolio's profitability.

我們今年開局穩健，整體綜合成本率為 96.1%，稅後淨投資收入為 9,600 萬美元。股本回報率和營運股本回報率為14.4%。受超額險和剩餘險以及標準商業險的推動，淨保費收入增長至 7%。隨著我們提高該投資組合的獲利能力，個人化保費減少了 12%。

Patrick will provide more detail on these results and our 2025 guidance, which still points to a full-year combined ratio of between 96% and 97% and an underlying combined ratio of 90% to 91%.

派崔克將提供有關這些結果和我們 2025 年指導的更多細節，該指導仍指出全年綜合比率在 96% 至 97% 之間，基礎綜合比率在 90% 至 91% 之間。

While our full-year guidance implies a mid-teens operating ROE, we remain focused on improving our underwriting margins, which have been (inaudible), due to the widespread impacts of social inflation on average casualty severities.

雖然我們的全年指引意味著營運 ROE 達到十幾歲，但我們仍然專注於提高承保利潤率，這是由於社會通膨對平均傷亡嚴重程度的廣泛影響造成的。

We are absolutely focused on restoring our profile as a company that delivers consistent underwriting margins and operating ROEs.

我們絕對致力於恢復我們作為一家提供穩定承保利潤率和營運 ROE 的公司形象。

Over the past decade, our average combined ratio was 95% and our average operating ROE was 12%. We are confident that our approach to addressing the elevated loss trend environment through our reserving, planning, underwriting, and pricing actions will quickly restore that profile.

過去十年，我們的平均綜合成本率為 95%，平均營運股本回報率為 12%。我們相信，透過準備金、規劃、承保和定價行動來應對損失趨勢上升的環境的方法將迅速恢復這一狀況。

We continue to price new and renewal business, contemplating our latest view of loss trends and profitability, relative to our 95% combined ratio target.

我們將繼續對新業務和續保業務進行定價，並考慮我們對損失趨勢和盈利能力的最新看法，相對於我們 95% 的綜合成本率目標。

In the first quarter, overall renewal pure pricing across our three insurance segments was 10.3%, up 2.2 points from a year ago. Overall renewal pure pricing is approximately 3 points above our loss trend assumption. Assuming this trend continues, it implies future margin expansion.

第一季度，我們三個保險部門的整體續保純定價率為 10.3%，比去年同期成長 2.2 個百分點。整體續保純定價比我們的損失趨勢假設高出約 3 個百分點。假設這種趨勢持續下去，就意味著未來利潤率將會擴大。

Turning to segment performance, Standard Commercial Lines reported a 96.4% combined ratio. Renewal pure price increased to 9.1%, driven by general liability at 12%. Retention was stable at 85%.

談到分部業績，標準商業險的綜合成本率為 96.4%。續保純價格上漲至 9.1%，受一般責任險 12% 的推動。保留率穩定在85%。

Market dynamics and pricing rationality vary by line. And we continue to deliver elevated renewal pure price increases in commercial property and commercial auto, both of which exceeded 10%. Renewal pure price, excluding workers' compensation, was 10.5%.

市場動態和定價合理性因產品線而異。我們持續提高商業不動產和商用車的續約純價格漲幅，這兩個漲幅都超過了 10%。不包括工人賠償的續約純價格為 10.5%。

Excess and Surplus Lines' driven by average renewal pure price increases of 8.7% and strong policy [count] growth at 20% net premiums written growth in the quarter. With a 92.5% combined ratio and 81% underlying combined ratio, we see continued growth opportunities for this segment.

超額和剩餘險種的推動因素包括平均續保純價格上漲 8.7% 以及保單[數量]強勁增長，本季淨保費增長 20%。綜合成本率為 92.5%，基礎綜合成本率為 81%，我們認為該領域仍具有持續的成長機會。

However, that market remains competitive. And we will continue to prioritize our profitability objectives, as we pursue growth.

然而，該市場依然競爭激烈。在追求成長的同時，我們將繼續優先考慮獲利目標。

Personal Lines delivered a combined ratio of 98%, approximately 7 points better than a year ago, as our rating and non-rating actions to reposition the book advanced profitability improvement. Renewal pure price was 24.1% in the quarter.

個人險的綜合成本率為 98%，比一年前高出約 7 個百分點，因為我們採取了評級和非評級行動來重新定位保險帳簿，從而提高了盈利能力。本季續約純價格為24.1%。

While target business grew 11% in the quarter, total Personal Lines' net premiums were in decrease, due to deliberate profit improvement actions.

雖然本季目標業務成長了 11%，但由於刻意提高利潤的舉措，個人險的淨保費總額卻有所下降。

Notably, new business decreased by 58%, as we focused on profitable growth in states where our rate levels are adequate. We expect rate changes will remain above loss trends but moderate compared to our rate increases in 2024.

值得注意的是，新業務減少了 58%，因為我們專注於在利率水平足夠的州實現盈利增長。我們預計費率變化仍將高於損失趨勢，但與 2024 年的費率成長相比仍將保持溫和。

We do not have filed rates that support our necessary path to profitability in certain states, including New Jersey, our largest state. And we significantly curtailed production in those states.

在某些州，包括我們最大的州新澤西州，我們還沒有提交支持我們實現盈利所需的稅率。我們大幅削減了這些州的產量。

I'll close with a few comments on our corporate strategy, risks, and opportunities, as we navigate this highly-dynamic macroeconomic environment.

最後，我想就我們在這個高度動態的宏觀經濟環境中的企業策略、風險和機會發表一些評論。

As an insurer, we create value by assuming risk for our customers, allowing them to operate their businesses and live their lives with the knowledge that their assets are protected.

作為保險公司，我們透過為客戶承擔風險來創造價值，讓他們知道他們的資產受到保護，從而可以經營業務和生活。

The contingent capital we provide is an essential social utility. And our independent agents and wholesale brokers value us as a stable partner. Over time, we reward shareholders through strategic execution, prudent enterprise risk management, and profitable growth.

我們提供的應急資本是一項重要的社會效用。我們的獨立代理商和批發經紀人視我們為穩定的合作夥伴。隨著時間的推移，我們透過策略執行、審慎的企業風險管理和獲利成長來回報股東。

We often highlight how our differentiated operating model and empowered decision-makers deliver our products and value-added services through our distribution partners, to our customers.

我們經常強調我們的差異化營運模式和授權決策者如何透過我們的分銷合作夥伴向我們的客戶提供我們的產品和增值服務。

Every year, several of our executives and regional management teams host six Regional Agency Council Meetings, with a cross-section of our distribution partners.

每年，我們的幾位高階主管和區域管理團隊都會與來自各行各業的經銷合作夥伴共同主持六次區域代理理事會會議。

This year, their feedback reinforced that our differentiated approach continues to resonate with our business partners and customers. Our open and dynamic discussions about customer expectations, the insurance market, talent, technology, and artificial intelligence confirm that despite the risk in the external environment, significant market opportunities exist for Selective and our partners.

今年，他們的回饋進一步證明，我們的差異化方法繼續引起我們的業務合作夥伴和客戶的共鳴。我們就客戶期望、保險市場、人才、技術和人工智慧進行的公開而充滿活力的討論證實，儘管外部環境存在風險，但 Selective 及其合作夥伴仍存在巨大的市場機會。

The insurance industry faces significant macroeconomic uncertainty, including financial market performance, international trade, and a possible recession. We may be impacted by whatever changes ultimately occur in these areas.

保險業面臨重大的宏觀經濟不確定性，包括金融市場表現、國際貿易和可能出現的經濟衰退。無論這些領域最終發生什麼變化，我們都可能受到影響。

Nonetheless, we will be able to face these challenges by focusing on our long-term value proposition and by focused strategic execution in the areas we control. As always, we will carefully navigate the uncertainty in the environment, responding prudently as new information emerges.

儘管如此，我們將能夠透過專注於我們的長期價值主張和在我們控制的領域集中策略執行來應對這些挑戰。像往常一樣，我們將謹慎應對環境中的不確定性，並在出現新資訊時做出謹慎的反應。

Our significant investments, in recent years, to support scalable and profitable growth provide us with many opportunities to increase our market share, while meeting or exceeding our profitability targets.

近年來，我們為支持可擴展和盈利增長而進行的大量投資為我們提供了增加市場份額的許多機會，同時達到或超過了我們的盈利目標。

We remain disciplined underwriters, unwilling to trade that profitability for growth. New business moderated in recent quarters, including this one, as we push pricing higher, resulting in reduced debt ratios. However, policy retention has remained strong, as we execute our pricing strategy in a granular fashion.

我們仍然是嚴謹的承銷商，不願意為了成長而犧牲獲利能力。由於我們提高價格，包括本季在內，新業務有所放緩，導致負債比率下降。然而，由於我們以細緻的方式執行定價策略，政策保留仍然強勁。

As we position ourselves for the future, we have several strategies to grow market share, profitably. In our existing footprint, we are focused on growing with existing partners and strategically appointing new agency locations.

在為未來做好準備時，我們制定了多種策略來增加市場份額並實現盈利。在我們現有的業務範圍內，我們專注於與現有合作夥伴共同成長，並策略性地指定新的代理地點。

In the first quarter, we added 30. In 2024, we had a net increase of 200. Careful and deliberate geographic expansion continues to provide lifts.

第一季度，我們增加了30個。2024年，我們淨增200人。謹慎而慎重的地理擴張繼續帶來推動作用。

Since 2017, we've added 13 states to our Standard Commercial Lines' footprint, with 5, last year. In 2024, these 13 states accounted for 2 points of growth, adding $350 million of premiums written for approximately 10% of Standard Commercial Lines' production.

自 2017 年以來，我們的標準商業線路覆蓋範圍已擴大到 13 個州，去年增加了 5 個州。到 2024 年，這 13 個州將帶來 2 個成長點，新增保費 3.5 億美元，約佔標準商業險產量的 10%。

Profitability in these expansion states is meeting our expectations.

這些擴張州的獲利能力符合我們的預期。

Technology investments are critical to ensure efficiency and scale. We are actively developing and executing artificial intelligence use cases focused on underwriting scalability and improving claims outcomes.

技術投資對於確保效率和規模至關重要。我們正在積極開發和執行人工智慧用例，重點是承保可擴展性和改善索賠結果。

We've also made considerable progress modernizing our Excess and Surplus Lines, Commercial Lines, and claim systems. For example, in E&S, system and process enhancements have improved operational efficiency, with the segment's premium production up, significantly, with limited headcount growth.

我們在超額和剩餘線、商業線和索賠系統的現代化方面也取得了長足的進步。例如，在 E&S 領域，系統和流程的改進提高了營運效率，在員工人數成長有限的情況下，該部門的優質產品產量大幅提升。

Our actions in 2024 and the continued execution of our strategy in 2025 leave us well positioned, despite the uncertainty in the external environment.

儘管外部環境充滿不確定性，但我們在 2024 年採取的行動以及在 2025 年繼續執行的策略使我們處於有利地位。

Now, I'll turn it over to Patrick, who will provide more details about our financial results.

現在，我將把時間交給帕特里克，他將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，約翰。大家早安。

Net income available to common stockholders increased 34% in the quarter. Fully-diluted EPS and non-GAAP operating EPS were both $1.76. And, as a result, our return on equity and operating return on equity were both 14.4%.

本季普通股股東淨利成長34%。完全稀釋每股收益和非公認會計準則營運每股收益均為1.76美元。因此，我們的股本回報率和營運股本回報率均為14.4%。

The GAAP combined ratio for the quarter was 96.1%, and included 3.7 points of catastrophe losses and 0.4 points of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development, isolated to personal auto.

本季的 GAAP 綜合比率為 96.1%，其中包括 3.7 個點的災難損失和 0.4 個點的不利上年意外準備金發展（僅針對個人汽車）。

Our underlying combined ratio is 92%, 150 basis points above the midpoint of our full-year guidance. However, we believe our full-year underwriting combined ratio will meet our original 90% to 91% expectation, as the first quarter underlying combined ratio tends to be higher than other quarters due to normal seasonality.

我們的基礎綜合比率為 92%，比全年預期中點高出 150 個基點。不過，我們相信全年承保綜合成本率將達到我們最初的 90% 至 91% 的預期，因為由於正常的季節性，第一季的基礎綜合成本率往往高於其他季度。

Turning to capital. Our capital position remains strong, with $3.3 billion of GAAP equity and $3.2 billion of statutory surplus, at March 31. Book value per share increased 5% in the quarter, driven by our profitability and a $1.06 per share reduction in after-tax net unrealized fixed income security losses.

轉向資本。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，截至 3 月 31 日，GAAP 股本為 33 億美元，法定盈餘為 32 億美元。本季每股帳面價值成長 5%，這得益於我們的獲利能力以及每股稅後淨未實現固定收益證券損失減少 1.06 美元。

Debt-to-capital increased to 21.7% at quarter end, due to February's successful $400 million senior notes issuance. The transaction receives strong investor support. And we are using the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including supporting disciplined and profitable growth, which we consider the most prudent way to create long-term value for our investors.

由於 2 月成功發行 4 億美元優先票據，季末負債資本比率上升至 21.7%。這項交易得到了投資者的大力支持。我們將把所得款項用於一般公司用途，包括支持有紀律的獲利成長，我們認為這是為投資者創造長期價值的最謹慎的方式。

We return capital to shareholders through regular quarterly dividends. And, from time to time, we also engage in opportunistic share repurchases.

我們透過定期季度股利向股東返還資本。而且，我們有時還會進行機會性股票回購。

During the first quarter, we repurchased $19.4 million of common stock, at an average price of $82.87 per share. As of March 30, 2025, $56 million remained under our repurchase authorization.

第一季度，我們回購了價值 1,940 萬美元的普通股，平均價格為每股 82.87 美元。截至 2025 年 3 月 30 日，我們的回購授權金額仍為 5,600 萬美元。

First-quarter after-tax net investment income was $96 million, up 12% from a year ago. This generated 12.8 points of return on equity, up 50 basis points from 12.3% in the first quarter of 2024.

第一季稅後淨投資收入為9,600萬美元，比去年同期成長12%。這產生了 12.8 個基點的股本回報率，比 2024 年第一季的 12.3% 上升了 50 個基點。

Our strong operating cash flow and the senior notes proceeds resulted in a very active first quarter, allowing us to invest over $900 million of new money. The average new purchase yield was an attractive 6% pre-tax. Consequently, the quarter and average pre-tax book yield increased to 5%.

我們強勁的經營現金流和優先票據收益使得第一季業務非常活躍，使我們能夠投資超過 9 億美元的新資金。平均新購置殖利率達到頗具吸引力的稅前 6%。因此，季度和平均稅前帳面收益率上升至 5%。

We expect our fixed income portfolio's embedded book yield will provide durable investment income. However, the volatile external environment presents downside risk to our net investment income guidance, particularly related to alternative investments.

我們預期我們的固定收益投資組合的內含帳面收益率將提供持久的投資收益。然而，動盪的外部環境為我們的投資淨收益指引帶來下行風險，尤其是與另類投資相關的風險。

Over our investment horizon, we expect alternative investments will produce at least a 10% return. However, the asset class has inherent economic variability, due to its higher risk and return profile and higher accounting variability because market value changes flow through the income statement.

在我們的投資期間內，我們預計另類投資將產生至少 10% 的回報。然而，由於該資產類別具有較高的風險和回報狀況以及較高的會計變動性（因為市場價值變化會流入損益表），因此該資產類別具有固有的經濟變動性。

Overall, our investment portfolio remains conservatively positioned. Total fixed income and short-term investments represented 92% of the portfolio at quarter end, with an average credit quality of A+ and a duration of 4.1 years.

總體而言，我們的投資組合仍然保持保守的立場。季度末，固定收益和短期投資總額佔投資組合的 92%，平均信用品質為 A+，期限為 4.1 年。

Our overall investment strategy is to maximize the economic value of our portfolio by achieving stable, risk adjusted after-tax net investment income and contributing to long-term growth and book value per share.

我們的整體投資策略是透過實現穩定、風險調整後的稅後淨投資收益並促進長期成長和每股帳面價值，最大化我們投資組合的經濟價值。

We do not expect to change our investment strategy or allocations, meaningfully. But our portfolio's positioning enables us to evaluate and act upon opportunities that market dislocations or volatility may present.

我們並不期望對我們的投資策略或配置做出重大改變。但我們的投資組合定位使我們能夠評估市場混亂或波動可能帶來的機會並採取行動。

Pulling together what we've discussed, we are reaffirming our original 2025 guidance, which is as follows:

綜合我們討論的內容，我們重申最初的 2025 年指導方針，具體如下：

We expect our 2025 GAAP combined ratio will be between 96% and 97%, including 6 points of catastrophe losses. As a reminder, our longstanding practice is to not assume any additional prior accident year reserve development in our forward guidance.

我們預計 2025 年 GAAP 綜合比率將在 96% 至 97% 之間，其中包括 6 個點的災難損失。提醒一下，我們長期以來的做法是，在前瞻性指引中不假設任何額外的前事故年度儲備金發展。

At this time, we are not revising our after-tax net investment income guidance of $405 million. A higher asset base from our senior notes issuance proceeds should benefit net investment income.

目前，我們不會修改 4.05 億美元的稅後淨投資收益預期。我們的優先票據發行收益所帶來的更高資產基礎應有利於淨投資收益。

However, alternative investments could face valuation headwinds in the coming months. Depending on the ultimate outcome and timing of tariffs, economic uncertainty, and financial market volatility, there's heightened risk that alternative investment income could come under pressure when we report second-quarter earnings.

然而，未來幾個月另類投資可能面臨估值阻力。根據關稅的最終結果和時間、經濟不確定性和金融市場波動，當我們報告第二季收益時，另類投資收入面臨壓力的風險可能會增加。

As a reminder, we report alternative investment income on a one-quarter lag.

提醒一下，我們報告另類投資收入落後一個季度。

We remain comfortable with the long-term performance expectations of the asset class and our 4% allocation.

我們對該資產類別的長期業績預期以及我們的 4% 配置仍然感到滿意。

Our guidance includes an overall effective tax rate of approximately 21.5% and an estimated $61.5 million fully-diluted weighted average shares, including those repurchased in the first quarter; and assumes no additional repurchases under our existing share repurchase authorization.

我們的指引包括約 21.5% 的整體有效稅率和估計 6,150 萬美元的完全稀釋加權平均股份，其中包括第一季回購的股份；並且假設根據我們現有的股份回購授權不會進行額外回購。

Operator, please start our question-and-answer session.

接線員，請開始我們的問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

John, in your opening comments, you talked about overall pricing, the 10.3%, and how that was probably about 3 points above loss trends, overall. Could you drill down to the casualty side and what you're seeing? Any updates there on your loss trend assumptions?

約翰，在你的開場白中，你談到了整體定價，即 10.3%，以及總體而言，這可能比損失趨勢高出 3 個百分點。您能否深入了解傷亡情況以及您所看到的情況？您對損失趨勢的假設有什麼更新嗎？

And how that might compare to -- the pricing was up in GL, which is good, but, maybe, just comments on what you're seeing for GL loss trends.

這與 GL 的價格上漲相比如何，這是好事，但也許只是對您所看到的 GL 損失趨勢的評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Mike.

是的。謝謝，麥克。

Our view of loss trends is unchanged from the beginning of the year. When we put together guidance, as you recall, we had all-in casualty loss trend at about 8.5%. And, again, that's all in.

我們對損失趨勢的看法與年初相比沒有改變。正如您所記得的那樣，當我們制定指導意見時，我們的總傷亡損失趨勢約為 8.5%。再說一遍，這就是全部了。

So GL and workers' comp and commercial auto liability are all in that number. And we've talked about GL in the 9% range, all driven by severity. That continues to be our view.

因此，GL、工傷賠償和商業汽車責任都包含在這個數字中。我們已經討論了 9% 範圍內的 GL，這都是由嚴重程度決定的。我們依然持這一觀點。

And I think it's important to remember that our '25 guidance and what we're applying that loss trend to includes the '24 year, where we acted, pretty quickly, to increase our expected loss ratio in the GL line by a little over 7 points, almost 7.5 points.

我認為重要的是要記住，我們的 25 年指導以及我們將損失趨勢應用於 24 年，在這一年中，我們迅速採取行動，將 GL 線的預期損失率提高了 7 個百分點，接近 7.5 個百分點。

So that that trend is now reflective of what we've observed in actual severity changes over the last few years. And, as a result of that, we continue to stay with that as our trend expectation.

因此，這種趨勢反映了我們在過去幾年中觀察到的實際嚴重程度變化。因此，我們將繼續以此作為我們的趨勢預期。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

If I could drill down to one line, in commercial auto, if I could. You've talked about, there, how pricing's been up higher for longer and that's been helping to ward off any potential reserve charges. So far, so good there.

如果我可以深入到商用汽車領域的一條線路，那麼我可以。您剛才談到，價格長期保持高位，這有助於避免任何潛在的儲備費用。到目前為止一切都很好。

I was surprised to see -- maybe surprised is too strong a word but your loss pick in the quarter came down about 3 points. Maybe you can drill down to what's behind that?

我很驚訝地看到——也許「驚訝」這個詞太過強烈，但你在本季的損失選擇下降了約 3 個百分點。也許您可以深入了解背後的原因？

You're talking specifically on commercial auto?

您具體談論的是商用汽車嗎？

Yes. I am, John.

是的。是的，約翰。

Yeah. Again, remember, this is a multi-year pricing change. And I think I might have gone through this, last quarter.

是的。再次提醒大家，這是一個持續多年的價格變動。我想我可能在上個季度經歷過這種情況。

If you focus on commercial auto BI, our average change, over the last four years, is a little over 10%. And then, you saw that 10% remain in the quarter.

如果您關注商用汽車 BI，那麼過去四年我們的平均變化略高於 10%。然後，您將看到本季仍剩下 10%。

So just roughly speaking, assuming that longer-term trend that we've pointed to in the 8% range you've had a number of years now, where your earned rate level has been running slightly above that elevated loss trend, that's going to be, probably, the larger driver.

因此，粗略地說，假設我們所指出的長期趨勢在 8% 的範圍內，並且您已經經歷了多年的趨勢，其中您的收益率水平一直略高於上升的損失趨勢，這可能是更大的驅動因素。

But, also, remember, autophysical damage is in that line, in total. And we've continued to generate strong rate on autophysical damage. And that loss trend tracks closer with our property trend, which has been in the, call it, 3.5 % range.

但是，也要記住，總體而言，自體物理損傷也在那條線上。我們繼續在自動物理損傷方面產生強勁的進展。這種損失趨勢與我們的房地產趨勢更為接近，即 3.5% 左右。

So you definitely have more improvement on the autophysical damage side than you might see it, necessarily, on the auto BI side -- that might be a little bit more flattish.

因此，與自動 BI 方面相比，您在自動物理損傷方面肯定會有更大的改進 — — 這可能會更加平緩。

And those are how the pieces come together.

這些就是各個部分組合在一起的方式。

Okay. Thank you. I'll circle back if I need to. Thanks, John.

好的。謝謝。如果需要的話我會再回來。謝謝，約翰。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey. Morning, gentlemen.

嘿。早安，先生們。

The first question I have is on the seasonality comments. If I look at the historical seasonality, we can see it.

我的第一個問題是關於季節性的評論。如果我觀察歷史季節性，我們就能看到這一點。

And I'm doing the math, quickly, but it seems like this year's seasonality is more pronounced, maybe more than 2 times the historical level. Any thoughts on what's causing the greater seasonality this year than in the past?

我正在快速計算，但似乎今年的季節性更加明顯，可能是歷史水平的兩倍多。您認為是什麼原因導致今年的季節性比以往更強烈？

No. I think that's -- the seasonality we're anticipating is largely driven by non-cat property. And when you look back, historically, that's held up pretty well.

不。我認為——我們預期的季節性很大程度上是由非貓財產驅動的。當你回顧歷史時，你會發現這一點仍然很好。

Now, there's expense ratio movement that also could impact what you see on a historical basis and that might vary from year to year. But on the non-cat property side, this is pretty much what we've seen on a historical basis.

現在，費用率的變動也可能會影響您所看到的歷史情況，並且每年可能會有所不同。但在非巨災財產方面，這與我們在歷史上看到的情況基本一致。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

It seems like it was a [150 basis points], [140 basis points] above the midpoint, this year, of your guide. And it certainly -- it's been more like 60 basis points above, in 1Q.

看起來，它比今年您指南的中點高出 [150 個基點]、[140 個基點]。確實如此——第一季度，這一數字已經超過了 60 個基點。

So just to make sure: you're saying that you're just seeing typical, normal seasonality for you, all, this quarter, if I just want to clarify?

因此，只是為了確認一下：您是說本季您看到的只是典型的、正常的季節性現象，我是否可以澄清一下？

Correct. And if you break down the difference, in terms of 2024's underlying combined ratio and the guidance, there's about -- I'm sorry, the Q1 result -- a 2.5 point difference. About 1 point of that is seasonality.

正確的。如果你細分差異，就 2024 年的基本綜合比率和指導而言，大約有 - 抱歉，第一季的結果 - 差異為 2.5 個百分點。其中約 1 個百分點是季節性的。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Workers' comp. We can see that you're booking above [100%] now, I know you've called out workers' comp is becoming less favorable, in quarters last year.

工傷補償我們可以看到，您現在的預訂量已超過 [100%]，我知道您已經指出，去年幾季的工人補償變得越來越不利。

But it seems like a pretty conservative pick. Any color on what you're seeing there?

但這似乎是相當保守的選擇。您在那裡看到什麼顏色嗎？

Yeah. A couple of points I'll highlight there:

是的。我要強調幾點：

If you look back to last year, on an accident-year basis, for us, we were in that 97% to 98% range, when you back out the impact of favorable development from prior years.

如果回顧去年，以事故發生年為基礎，對我們來說，當你排除前幾年有利發展的影響時，我們的事故發生率處於 97% 到 98% 的範圍內。

And, honestly, when you look at it on an industry basis, I think you'll see that '24 accident year, on industry basis, is in that neighborhood of 100%.

老實說，當你從行業角度來看時，我認為你會發現，從行業角度來看，每年 24 起事故的發生率接近 100%。

Now, granted the older accident years have continued to emerge, favorably, albeit maybe a little bit more lightly favorable -- and I think that's also been an industry-wide trend -- so let's just assume that high 90%s, for us, industry-100% starting point, on an accident-year basis.

現在，考慮到過去事故多發的年份繼續出現有利的跡象，儘管可能稍微有利一些 —— 而且我認為這也是整個行業的趨勢 —— 因此，讓我們假設以事故年份為基礎，我們的行業起點為 90% 左右。

Our written rate last year was around negative 3%. Our first quarter rate is around negative 3%. So let's just assume you've got an earned rate impact of about 3%, negative.

我們去年的書面利率約為-3%。我們第一季的利率約為-3%。因此，我們假設您的收益率影響約為 3%，即負值。

As we've done -- and we pointed to this last year -- we've started to see a flattening of frequency trends. So on a roll-forward basis, '24 into '25, we're assuming flat frequencies.

正如我們所做的——我們去年就指出了這一點——我們已經開始看到頻率趨勢趨於平緩。因此，從 2024 年到 2025 年，我們假設頻率是平穩的。

And then, you've got the impact of severity inflation, largely driven by medical. And that, let's put it somewhere in the mid-single-digit range, in terms of where we anticipate medical severities on a go-forward basis.

然後，你會受到嚴重程度通膨的影響，這主要是由醫療因素驅動的。就我們預期的未來醫療嚴重程度而言，我們將其放在中等個位數範圍內。

You combine that with flat frequencies and a negative 3% earned rate, that's how you roll it forward. And I think that applies on an industry basis, as well.

將其與平坦頻率和-3% 的收益率相結合，這就是將其向前推進的方式。我認為這也適用於產業基礎。

Now, to the extent the prior years continue to emerge favorably, and in particular to the extent '23 and '24, ultimately, emerge favorably -- which, we haven't recognized anything there, at this point, because they're immature -- but to the extent that continues, that might prove a conservative assumption.

現在，就前幾年繼續向好發展的程度而言，特別是就 23 年和 24 年最終向好發展的程度而言——目前我們還沒有認識到這一點，因為它們還不成熟——但如果這種情況繼續下去，這可能被證明是一個保守的假設。

But we think, based on where we are today, that's the appropriate way for us to establish the ELR, the expected loss ratio, for 2025.

但我們認為，根據我們目前的狀況，這是我們制定 2025 年 ELR（預期損失率）的適當方式。

Okay. Yeah. I appreciate the candidness.

好的。是的。我欣賞你的坦誠。

We haven't heard other peers. But, maybe, they just haven't been asked about seeing the flattening frequency.

我們還沒有聽到其他同行的聲音。但是，也許他們只是還沒有被問到看到平坦頻率的情況。

I know you, guys, have called that out. So we're, in our seats, trying to figure out if it's a mixed thing that's specific to Selective or it's an industry-wide phenomenon. And I think you're saying it's more industry-wide so we'll dig into that more.

我知道你們已經說出了這一點。因此，我們試圖弄清楚這是否是 Selective 特有的混合現象，還是整個產業的現象。我認為您說的是它涉及整個行業，所以我們將對此進行更深入的研究。

Okay. Lastly, just trying to -- I know this is also an industry-issue impact. But on tariffs, on the commercial property side, do you have any views on how many points that could cause the industry to need to push price, if the current tariff regime picks and comes into play? Any thoughts there?

好的。最後，只是想──我知道這也是一個產業問題的影響。但是關於關稅，就商業房地產方面而言，如果當前的關稅制度開始發揮作用，您對有多少點可能導致該行業需要提高價格有何看法？有什麼想法嗎？

I feel like most management teams, so far, have been willing to say, it'll have an impact but no, really, quantification.

我覺得到目前為止，大多數管理團隊都願意說它會產生影響，但實際上並沒有量化。

Yeah. First of all, I'm not sure I'm going to give you anything other than what you haven't already heard, which I think there's been some accurate commentary, out there, for some of our peers.

是的。首先，除了你們還沒有聽到的內容之外，我不確定我是否會告訴你們其他任何內容，我認為對於我們的一些同行來說，已經有一些準確的評論。

First of all, it's early. And understanding where tariffs ultimately settle is very much an open question, at this point. But I would say -- and I'll talk about it overall and I'll certainly hit your question on commercial property, specifically -- overall, when you factor in the various mitigants, it is a manageable impact, from a loss cost perspective.

首先，現在還早。目前，了解關稅最終如何確定仍是一個懸而未決的問題。但我想說——我會總體談論這個問題，我肯定會回答你關於商業房地產的問題，具體來說——總的來說，當你考慮到各種緩解因素時，從損失成本的角度來看，這是一個可控的影響。

So the primary impacts, obviously, are all physical damage lines, both personal and commercial. And then, property and home.

因此，主要影響顯然都是物理損害，包括人身損害和商業損害。然後是財產和房屋。

But I think when you look at the various mitigants, the first one would be what are the loss costs of labor versus materials? And if you look at it on an auto basis, historically, the loss costs are about 60% labor and on the property side -- both commercial and personal -- blended laborers in the neighborhood of 55% or so of the cost.

但我認為，當你考慮各種緩解措施時，首先要考慮的是勞動力與材料的損失成本是多少？如果你從汽車產業的角度來看，從歷史上看，損失成本中約有 60% 是勞動成本，而在財產方面（包括商業和個人），混合勞動成本約佔 55% 左右。

So that's an impact that mitigates the impact of tariffs.

因此，這是一種減輕關稅影響的影響。

And then, you've got the consideration, relative to materials that are coming from imports versus those that are produced and sourced, domestically. And if you look at auto parts, it's as much as 40% of those are produced and source, domestically. So there's a balancing there.

然後，您需要考慮進口材料與國內生產和採購的材料。如果你看一下汽車零件，你會發現其中 40％ 是在國內生產和採購的。因此，這裡存在一個平衡點。

And then on lumber, which is a big input on both commercial and personal property, a significant -- more than half of that is produced and sourced, domestically. So that lowers the impact.

然後是木材，它是商業和個人財產的重要投入，其中相當一部分——超過一半是在國內生產和採購的。這樣就降低影響了。

And then, with the property line in particular, you've got the inflation-sensitive exposure basis for both commercial property and home, which allows you to respond with regard to insurance-to-value or total insured values, in addition to price. And that's a relatively quick triggering item that as we see that, those loss costs start to come through. You can respond relatively, quickly, from an exposure basis perspective.

然後，特別是對於房地產線，您可以獲得商業房地產和住宅的通膨敏感風險敞口基礎，這使您除了價格之外，還可以根據保險價值比或總保險價值做出反應。這是一個相對較快的觸發因素，正如我們所見，這些損失成本開始出現。從曝光基礎的角度來看，您可以相對快速地做出反應。

So if you put all those pieces together, I don't think there's any question. Personal auto physical damage is probably the biggest impact, on a line basis. That's obviously a smaller impact for us.

所以，如果把所有這些部分放在一起，我認為就不存在任何問題了。從線路角度來看，個人自動物理損壞可能是最大的影響。這對我們來說影響顯然較小。

And then, it works down from there. And you're probably looking at something in the low-single digits, on an overall basis.

然後，一切就從那裡開始了。從整體來看，你看到的可能是個位數以下的數字。

Okay. Yeah. That's excellent color. And, hopefully, you're okay with me asking one quick follow-up to the work comp discussion earlier.

好的。是的。顏色真棒。並且，希望您同意我之前對工傷補償討論提出一個快速的後續問題。

Looking at the live transcript, you said negative 3% earned rate in comp. Does that include wage inflation?

查看現場記錄，您說公司盈利率為負 3%。這包括薪資通膨嗎？

I think it does. I thought wage inflation has been really helping the earned rate, in that line, for the industry, given what looks like wage inflation is still in pretty healthy levels.

我認為是的。我認為薪資通膨確實有助於提高該行業的勞動報酬率，因為目前薪資通膨看起來仍處於相當健康的水平。

Yeah. Mike, that's a pure rate number I'm giving you. We haven't put exposure change numbers, out there, for workers' comp. That's pure rate.

是的。麥克，我給你的是一個純利率數字。我們還沒有公佈工人賠償的風險變化數字。這是純利率。

So there's no question. Wages are an offsetting impact to that.

所以毫無疑問。工資對此產生了抵消作用。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅紐瑟姆、派珀桑德勒。

Good morning.

早安.

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the competitive environment in pricing, which has become a little bit of an issue this quarter. This concerns that certain areas are softening and certain, not. And, maybe, you could put that into the context.

我希望您能多談談定價方面的競爭環境，這已成為本季的一個小問題。這讓人擔心某些區域正在軟化，但有些區域則沒有。或許，你可以將其放到上下文中。

My sense is that Selective is, at this point, raising rates more than the vast majority of the competitors. But, maybe, I'm wrong about that.

我的感覺是，Selective 目前漲價幅度比絕大多數競爭對手都要大。但也許我錯了。

And just any thoughts you have about how you see yourself, relative to others, in the market environment.

以及您對在市場環境中如何看待自己與他人的關係的任何想法。

Yeah. From a GL perspective, I think your depiction of where we are is an accurate one.

是的。從 GL 的角度來看，我認為您對我們所處位置的描述是準確的。

Our view was that when we reacted to the '22 and '23 accident years in the middle part of 2024, we thought it prudent to also move '24 higher, which then reset our pricing targets, in order to offset that increase in expected loss ratios and our forward-trend assumptions.

我們的觀點是，當我們在 2024 年中期對 22 年和 23 年的事故年做出反應時，我們認為謹慎的做法是將 24 年的價格也上調，然後重新設定我們的定價目標，以抵消預期損失率和未來趨勢假設的增加。

And I think there's no question that as a result of that, our pricing targets are probably above where the broader market is. And you do see that impact on our conversion rates. And, therefore, our new business, which, in Commercial Lines, was flat on a year-over-year basis.

我認為毫無疑問，我們的定價目標可能高於大盤水準。您確實看到了它對我們的轉換率的影響。因此，我們的商業險新業務與去年同期持平。

Now, remember, we continue to open up additional distribution points, whether it's through new states or new agents. So if you think about it on the same-store basis, that's probably a little bit more negative, in terms of where the growth is.

現在，請記住，我們將繼續開闢更多的分銷點，無論是透過新的州還是新的代理商。因此，如果你從同店角度來考慮，那麼就成長而言，情況可能會更加負面一些。

And, as we've said, we, we've got conviction around where we're pricing, from a GL perspective. And we think that's appropriate, based on our incorporation of those higher run rate severity trends into our forward view.

而且，正如我們所說，從總帳角度來看，我們對我們的定價很有信心。我們認為這是合適的，因為我們將這些更高的運行率嚴重性趨勢納入了我們的前瞻性觀點。

And our objective, here, is to stay ahead of the curve, from a severity perspective. And we're not -- while we recognize that there will be an inflection point where social inflation starts to normalize, we're not assuming that happens in 2025. And we're pricing according to that.

我們的目標是從嚴重性角度保持領先。我們並不是——儘管我們認識到社會通膨將有一個開始正常化的轉折點，但我們並不認為這會在 2025 年發生。我們將根據此定價。

That makes sense. It always seems to be the right decision to be ahead on pricing.

這很有道理。在定價上領先似乎總是正確的決定。

Related to that question is one of retention. And, obviously, there's been a pretty quick new business impact.

與該問題相關的是保留問題。並且，顯然，它已經對新業務產生了相當快的影響。

But do you expect -- or should it be prudent for us to be thinking that retention will be impacted in coming quarters, as well, from that competitive environment? And then, things stabilize after that?

但是，您是否預期—或者我們應該謹慎地認為，在未來幾個季度，競爭環境也會對員工留任率產生影響？然後情況就穩定下來了？

I think retention has held up well for a few quarters, now. And the pricing change we're talking about was --our run rate in the early part of or mid-part of last year was in the high-single digits and, now, we're in the 12% range.

我認為，目前幾個季度以來，保留率一直保持良好。我們談論的價格變化是——去年年初或年中的運行率處於高個位數，而現在，我們處於 12% 的範圍內。

But you really want to think about it in terms of overall pricing change. And we've been in that 8%, all in.

但你確實需要從整體價格變動的角度來考慮這個問題。我們已經完全融入了那 8% 的範疇。

Because that's -- remember, we write on a package basis, for the most part. So this is one line. And you've got other lines that are impacting the overall rate change.

因為那是——記住，我們大部分都是按包來寫的。所以這是一行。還有其他線路也在影響整體費率變化。

We were at 8.3% for all of last year in Standard Commercial Lines. And, now, we're at 9.1%.

去年全年我們的標準商業保險費率為 8.3%。現在，這一比例已達到 9.1%。

So you've got different lines moving in different directions. But, overall, higher. So it's not such a dramatic move that it's dramatically impacted retentions.

因此，不同的線路會朝著不同的方向移動。但整體來說，還是比較高。因此，這並不是一個會對保留產生巨大影響的重大舉措。

But, again, we're at a point in the market where we think it's appropriate to focus on achieving your price target. And if that has a slight impact on retention over time, we're willing to make that trade.

但是，我們再次強調，我們認為現在的市場狀況是應該專注於實現您的價格目標。如果這對長期保留產生輕微影響，我們願意進行這種交易。

But I also want to highlight -- and I made reference to this in my prepared remarks -- we continue to execute our pricing strategy on a granular and targeted basis, which should also mitigate the overall impact, from a retention perspective.

但我也想強調——我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點——我們將繼續以細緻和有針對性的方式執行我們的定價策略，從保留的角度來看，這也應該可以減輕整體影響。

Thank you. Your thoughts are much appreciated. I really appreciate the help.

謝謝。非常感謝您的想法。我非常感謝您的幫助。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指示）

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Thank you so much for the enhanced disclosure with cats and reserve -- all byline - which makes things a lot easier to follow.

偉大的。謝謝。早安.非常感謝您對貓和儲備的增強披露 - 所有署名 - 這使得事情更容易理解。

Two quick line-of-business questions.

兩個關於業務線的簡短問題。

First. In the ISO data, the FastTrack data, we're seeing, maybe, surprising decreases in claim frequency for physical damage coverages. And I'm wondering whether that translates into the affluent Personal Lines books that Selective rights?

第一的。在 ISO 資料和 FastTrack 資料中，我們可能會看到實體損壞保險的索賠頻率出現令人驚訝的下降。我想知道這是否意味著富裕的個人險種具有選擇性權利？

Yeah. We are seeing the same thing, on both commercial auto physical damage and personal auto physical damage.

是的。我們看到的是同樣的事情，無論是商業汽車物理損壞還是個人汽車物理損壞。

I'm sorry, Meyer, I just want to make sure that your question related -- I didn't hear the full question related to the affluent market. I think it's across the board. And we're seeing it in our target market, as well.

抱歉，邁耶，我只是想確認你的問題是否相關——我沒有聽到與富裕市場相關的完整問題。我認為這是全面的。我們也在我們的目標市場中看到了這一點。

Okay. Yeah. That's perfect. That's really what I wanted to know.

好的。是的。那很完美。這確實就是我想知道的。

Second question. I was hoping you could take us through the specifics of your bond book, with regards to both potential claim costs inflation on construction materials and overall sensitivity to the economy.

第二個問題。我希望您能向我們介紹一下您的債券帳簿的具體情況，包括建築材料的潛在索賠成本通膨以及對經濟的整體敏感性。

So you're asking, specifically, about the bond or surety book? Or you're asking about the construction book?

那麼您具體問的是債券或保證書嗎？還是你問的是建築書？

I was asking about the surety book. But I welcome comments, as broadly as you want to make them.

我問的是保證書的事。但我歡迎大家提出各種意見，只要你們願意。

Yeah. The surety book, for us, is a relatively small portfolio. It's in the range of $40 million. It's around 11% of our overall premium.

是的。對我們來說，保證書是一個相對較小的投資組合。大約在 4,000 萬美元左右。這約占我們總保費的11%。

We've been in that business a long time. The results have continued to be very strong.

我們從事這個行業已經很久了。業績持續表現強勁。

And, obviously, to the extent we anticipate impacts from an economic perspective, we would adjust our pricing, accordingly.

顯然，如果我們從經濟角度預測到影響，我們就會相應地調整定價。

Okay. Do you have your book as subject to macroeconomic pressures?

好的。您的書是否受到宏觀經濟壓力的影響？

No. We're not writing large contract surety. We're a small market, lower end of the mid-market player in that space.

不。我們不簽訂大額合約擔保。我們的市場規模較小，屬於該領域中端市場的低端參與者。

So you want to think about us in those terms.

所以你要從這些角度來考慮我們。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey. Thanks.

嘿。謝謝。

Just a quick follow-up in Commercial Lines. Any puts-and-takes worth calling out on reserve development in any of the lines?

這只是商業線路中的一次快速跟進。在任何一條線路上，儲備開發方面有沒有什麼值得關注的因素？

No. Nothing. The only reserve change we called out was the personal auto liability, driven by New Jersey severities in the '24 year. But nothing on the Commercial Lines side.

不。沒有什麼。我們呼籲的唯一儲備變化是個人汽車責任，這是由 24 年新澤西州的嚴厲措施所致。但商業線路方面沒有任何進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Yeah. Thanks.

是的。謝謝。

Just one more softer question, John. Given the macroenvironment and everybody's concerns on what's happening in the world and in the US, have you seen any more push back, recently, than normal, from insurers or agents that say, hey, you might want to ease up on pricing, given our clients are under pressure too? Has that changed, at all, in the past month or so?

再問一個比較溫和的問題，約翰。考慮到宏觀環境以及大家對世界和美國正在發生的事情的擔憂，最近您是否看到保險公司或代理商比平時更加反抗，說“嘿，考慮到我們的客戶也面臨壓力，你可能想放鬆定價嗎？”在過去一個月左右的時間裡，情況有沒有什麼改變？

It hasn't. Now, it's not to suggest it won't.

事實並非如此。現在，這並不是說它不會發生。

And I think -- we continue to see strong exposure change in our Commercial Lines portfolio.

我認為－我們繼續看到商業險組合的風險敞口發生強勁變化。

And, again, being a predominantly small and middle market player -- not that there's not an impact there -- but in terms of anticipating an impact, I would say that hasn't really changed any of the pressure points.

而且，作為一個以中小型市場為主的市場參與者，這並不是說沒有影響，而是就預期影響而言，我想說這並沒有真正改變任何壓力點。

And that's not to suggest that there's not some ongoing concern, relative to continued increases across the market. And I think this was the case, certainly, in Personal Lines, over the last couple of years.

但這並不意味著不存在相對於整個市場持續上漲的持續擔憂。我認為過去幾年個人險業務確實存在這種情況。

And I think it exists, where there's some rate fatigue on the part of distribution partners and customers. But I think that's why the focus really needs to be on addressing the underlying causes of the increase in loss costs, which are driving pricing.

我認為這種情況確實存在，分銷合作夥伴和客戶對利率有一定程度的厭倦。但我認為這就是為什麼我們真正需要關注的是導致損失成本增加的根本原因，而損失成本正是定價的驅動因素。

And that's why this focus around litigation abuse is of particular importance and connecting that dot for customers so they understand what that does to the cost of insurance.

這就是為什麼關注訴訟濫用尤其重要，並將這一點與客戶聯繫起來，以便他們了解這對保險成本的影響。

Okay. Thank you. Makes sense. Appreciate it.

好的。謝謝。有道理。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm shown no further questions, at this time.

目前我沒有其他問題。

I'd like to turn the call back over to John for closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給約翰，請他做最後發言。

Well, thank you, all, for joining us.

好吧，謝謝大家加入我們。

As always, we appreciate the questions and the participation. Please follow up with Brad, if you have any anything additional.

像往常一樣，我們感謝您的提問和參與。如果您還有其他信息，請與布拉德聯繫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。

Everyone, have a great day.

祝大家有個愉快的一天。