Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGIP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to Selective Insurance Group Third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad Wilson, senior Vice President, Investor relations and treasurer. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Selective Insurance Group 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講結束後，將進行問答環節。屆時將給予指示。請注意，今天的會議正在錄影。現在我謹將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁兼財務長布拉德威爾森。請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for joining Selective' s 3rd quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we posted our earnings press release, financial supplement, and investor presentation on Selective.com's investor section. A replay of the webcast will be available there shortly after this call.

感謝您參加 Selective 公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。昨天，我們在 Selective.com 的投資者關係版塊發布了我們的收益新聞稿、財務補充文件和投資者簡報。本次通話結束後不久，網路直播的回放將在該平台上提供。

John Marconi, our chairman of the board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Patrick Brennan, executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will discuss third quarter results and take your questions.

我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長約翰·馬可尼和執行副總裁兼財務長帕特里克·布倫南將討論第三季業績並回答您的問題。

We will reference non-GAAP measures that insurance and investment professionals use to evaluate operational and financial performance.

我們將參考保險和投資專業人士用來評估營運和財務績效的非GAAP指標。

These non-GAAP measures include operating income, operating return on common equity, and adjusted book value for common share. The financial supplements on our website include GAAP reconciliations to any referenced non-GAAP financial measures.

這些非GAAP指標包括營業收入、普通股股東權益營業回報率和普通股調整後帳面價值。我們網站上的財務補充資料包括 GAAP 與任何引用的非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

We will also make statements and projections about our future performance.

我們也將對我們未來的表現做出聲明和預測。

These are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 not guarantees of future performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that we disclose in our annual, quarterly, and current reports filed with the SEC.

這些是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所作出的前瞻性陳述，並非對未來績效的保證。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度報告、季度報告和當前報告中揭露了這些風險和不確定性。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the call over to John.

我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。現在我把電話交給約翰。

Thanks Brad and good morning.

謝謝布拉德，早安。

This quarter, we delivered an operating return on equity of 13.2%, driven by strong investment income, which increased 18% year over year.

本季度，我們實現了 13.2% 的經營性股本回報率，這主要得益於強勁的投資收益，該收益同比增長了 18%。

We are on track to deliver a full year operating ROE in the in the 14% range.

我們預計將實現全年營運淨資產收益率在 14% 左右。

However, our combined ratio guidance of 97 to 98 exceeds our 95 long-term target.

然而，我們給出的綜合比率預期為 97 至 98，超過了我們 95 的長期目標。

To address this, we are prioritizing profit improvement and moderating premium growth.

為了解決這個問題，我們將優先考慮提高利潤，並控制保費成長。

Risk selection, granular and accurate risk pricing, and prompt fair claims adjudication are foundational capabilities we have built over many decades.

風險選擇、細緻準確的風險定價以及及時公正的理賠裁決是我們幾十年來建立的基礎能力。

We have a solid foundation but are continuing to strengthen these core competencies to compete effectively in this dynamic environment.

我們擁有堅實的基礎，但仍在不斷加強這些核心競爭力，以便在這個瞬息萬變的環境中有效競爭。

Across the company, we are sharpening our focus on a set of key priorities.

公司上下正在集中精力處理一系列關鍵優先事項。

First, relentlessly improving on the fundamentals across risk selection, individual policy pricing, and claim outcomes. Second, diversifying revenue and income within and across our three insurance segments.

首先，在風險選擇、個人保單定價和理賠結果等方面不斷改進基本面。第二，在我們的三大保險業務部門內部和之間實現收入和利潤多元化。

And third, further leveraging our use of data, analytics, and technology, including artificial intelligence, to drive operational efficiency and improved underwriting and claim outcomes.

第三，進一步利用數據、分析和技術（包括人工智慧）來提高營運效率並改善承保和索賠結果。

Turning to results, we recorded unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development of 40 million or 3.3 points in the quarter. 35 million relates to commercial auto and 5 million to personal auto.

談到結果，我們記錄了本季不利的上年意外傷害準備金發展情況，為 4,000 萬或 3.3 個百分點。 3500 萬與商用汽車有關，500 萬與個人汽車有關。

Unfavorable prior year development in both lines is attributed to the 2024 accident year and is primarily driven by the state of New Jersey.

兩條線路上一年的不利發展歸因於 2024 年的事故，而這主要是由新澤西州造成的。

With recent prior accident year reserve strengthening in each of the last two quarters, we refined our view of the current accident year for commercial auto.

由於最近兩個季度前一事故年度準備金不斷增加，我們調整了對當前商業汽車事故年度的看法。

This adjustment added just under 5 points to the current year casualty loss costs for the line's year-to-date combined ratio.

這項調整使該險種本年度的意外損失成本在年初至今的綜合比率中增加了近 5 個百分點。

For the quarter, the pressure and casualty lines was offset by light property catastrophe activity and favorable non-catastrophe property results.

本季度，財產災害活動較少以及非災害性財產保險業績良好，抵消了財產損失和傷亡方面的壓力。

In total, our combined ratio from the quarter was 98.6.

整體而言，本季我們的綜合比率為 98.6。

As we book our best estimate each quarter, incorporating new and emerging information as it becomes available.

我們每季都會進行最佳估算，並及時納入新的和新興的資訊。

Consistent with our long-standing practice, we continue to engage an independent party to conduct semiannual reserve reviews and sign our actuarial statement of opinions.

按照我們長期以來的做法，我們繼續聘請獨立第三方進行半年一次的準備金審查，並簽署我們的精算意見聲明。

Over the past 15 months, we have supplemented these external reviews by engaging other independent third parties to evaluate our reserving, planning, and claims processes.

在過去的 15 個月裡，除了這些外部審查之外，我們還聘請了其他獨立的第三方來評估我們的準備金、計畫和索賠流程。

Through their reviews, the outside firms have provided us with additional industry perspective on current loss trends and best practices.

透過外部公司的評估，我們獲得了有關當前損失趨勢和最佳實踐的更多行業視角。

The reviews confirmed that our actuarial processes are reasonable and consistent with best practices for methodology, data, and approach.

評審結果證實，我們的精算流程合理，符合方法論、資料和方法的最佳實務。

Most recently, we had an independent review of our overall casualty reserve adequacy completed.

最近，我們完成了整體傷亡儲備充足性的獨立審查。

It indicated that our book reserves were in a reasonable range and importantly above the third-party's central estimate.

這表明我們的帳面儲備處於合理範圍內，而且重要的是高於第三方機構的中心估計。

The third-party review confirmed that our approach was somewhat more responsive to recent elevated trends they are seeing industry-wide.

第三方評審證實，我們的方法對他們目前在整個產業中觀察到的上升趨勢具有一定的反應能力。

Consequently, we have greater confidence in our overall reserves, and we maintained our actuarial approach and management processes to determine our best estimate for the quarter.

因此，我們對整體儲備更有信心，並繼續採用精算方法和管理流程來確定本季的最佳估計值。

The claims reviews included evaluations of samples from both open and closed claim files.

理賠審查包括對未結案和已結案理賠檔案中的樣本進行評估。

The findings on open claims indicate that our claims management and reserving practices are consistent with internal guidelines aligned with industry best practices, and that valuations have been reasonable.

對未決索賠的調查結果表明，我們的索賠管理和準備金做法符合內部準則，並與行業最佳實踐保持一致，而且估值也較為合理。

The review of closed claims is ongoing.

已結案案件的審查仍在進行中。

We will continue to incorporate enhancement recommendations from these reviews, augmenting our other ongoing claims handling and litigation management process and system improvements.

我們將繼續採納這些審查中的改進建議，並在此基礎上完善我們正在進行的理賠處理和訴訟管理流程以及系統改進。

Last quarter, we took reserving action in commercial auto liability, responding to increasing paid severities.

上個季度，我們對商業汽車責任險採取了準備金提列措施，以應對不斷增加的已付賠償金額。

This quarter, these trends escalated in specific jurisdictions, most notably New Jersey.

本季度，這些趨勢在某些地區愈演愈烈，尤其是在新澤西州。

Otherwise, auto liability loss ratios have been in line with our expectations with improving accident year loss ratios driven by consistent rate increases.

除此之外，汽車責任損失率一直符合我們的預期，事故年度損失率的改善得益於費率的持續上漲。

While rate increases continue to be an important lever, rate alone will not be sufficient to drive and maintain long-term profitability in this line, particularly in certain jurisdictions.

雖然提高利率仍然是一個重要的槓桿，但僅靠利率不足以推動和維持該行業的長期獲利能力，特別是在某些司法管轄區。

The legislative, regulatory, and judicial environments in these jurisdictions present specific challenges, and we intend to take significant targeted underwriting actions.

這些司法管轄區的立法、監管和司法環境帶來了特殊的挑戰，我們打算採取有針對性的重大承保措施。

Specifically for commercial auto, several actions are on your way.

具體到商用汽車領域，即將推出多項措施。

In early September, we deployed an updated rating plan and predictive modeling to provide more granular pricing segmentation for the auto line.

9月初，我們部署了更新的定價方案和預測模型，以便為汽車產品線提供更精細的價格細分。

Incorporating several enhanced variables including additional vehicle and driver specific criteria.

納入了多個增強變量，包括額外的車輛和駕駛員特定標準。

We've implemented tighter underwriting guidelines on fleet exposures, supported by state-level tactics and analytics to better identify and target risks.

我們實施了更嚴格的車隊風險承保準則，並輔以州級策略和分析，以便更好地識別和鎖定風險。

We are targeting certain segments in states for higher penetration of Compass, or telematic solution.

我們正在針對某些州的特定細分市場，以提高 Compass 或遠端資訊處理解決方案的滲透率。

And in further support of our risk management specialists engagement on fleet safety with our insured, we are actively promoting increased use of commercial auto self-assessments in our risk management center, which provides customers online risk management guidance and expertise.

為了進一步支持我們的風險管理專家與被保險人共同參與車隊安全工作，我們正在積極推動風險管理中心更多地使用商業汽車自我評估，為客戶提供線上風險管理指導和專業知識。

We continue to invest in processes and tools to further elevate our underwriting, pricing, and claim sophistication.

我們將繼續投資於流程和工具，以進一步提升我們的承保、定價和理賠水準。

While this is not a new initiative, there are opportunities to sharpen fundamental disciplines including risk selection, individual risk pricing, and claims adjudication.

雖然這不是一項新舉措，但有機會加強風險選擇、個人風險定價和理賠裁決等基本學科。

Maintaining our focus and sense of urgency is critical to improving underwriting margins and supporting long-term profitable growth.

保持專注和緊迫感對於提高承保利潤率和支持長期獲利成長至關重要。

We continue to diversify our portfolio by expanding our standard commercialized footprint.

我們透過擴大標準商業化佈局，不斷實現產品組合多元化。

Since 2017, we have strategically added 14 states with two more planned in 2026.

自 2017 年以來，我們已策略性地增加了 14 個州，並計劃在 2026 年再增加兩個州。

Geographic expansion has significantly increased our addressable market, and we've advanced our stated goal of operating our standard commercialized business with a near national footprint.

地理擴張顯著擴大了我們的潛在市場，我們實現了既定目標，即以近乎全國性的方式經營我們的標準商業化業務。

Going forward, we will continue to pursue opportunities to further diversify our business within and across our three insurance segments.

展望未來，我們將繼續尋求機會，進一步拓展我們在三大保險業務板塊內部及板塊之間的業務多元化。

Before I turn the call over to Patrick, I want to reinforce three foundational points shaping our performance and long-term strategy.

在將電話交給帕特里克之前，我想強調三個影響我們業績和長期策略的基本要點。

First, we firmly believe that insurance requires a long-term perspective, particularly with long tail casualty lines.

首先，我們堅信保險需要長遠的眼光，尤其是長尾意外險。

To that end, we will trade short-term impacts for long-term sustainable success.

為此，我們將以短期影響力換取長期可持續的成功。

By reacting quickly to current claim trends, we are better positioned to ensure our pricing indications are appropriately positioned to achieve our long-term underwriting margin targets.

透過對當前理賠趨勢做出快速反應，我們可以更好地確保我們的定價指標處於適當位置，從而實現我們的長期承保利潤目標。

Second, we believe that prudent decisions made now with the best information available are the surest way to deliver value over time.

其次，我們相信，現在利用現有的最佳資訊做出的審慎決策是實現長期價值的最可靠方式。

Analyzing new information requires us to constantly refine our views of the market and take appropriate and sometimes difficult actions.

分析新資訊需要我們不斷改進對市場的看法，並採取適當且有時艱難的行動。

This ongoing process reinforces the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective.

這一持續的過程強調了保持長遠眼光的重要性。

Third, we continue to invest to deliver long-term profitable growth, even as the market is increasingly competitive.

第三，即使市場競爭日益激烈，我們仍將繼續投資，以實現長期獲利成長。

Growth levers include achieving greater market share and segment diversification in standard commercial lines, potential geographic expansion in personal lines, and increasing our product and distribution capabilities in ENS and other specialty lines.

成長動力包括：在標準商業保險領域取得更大的市場份額和細分市場多元化；在個人保險領域實現潛在的地域擴張；以及提高我們在 ENS 和其他專業保險領域的產品和分銷能力。

We also prioritize returning approximately 20% to 25% of earnings through our shareholder dividend.

我們也優先考慮將約 20% 至 25% 的收益透過股東分紅返還給股東。

In addition, guided by our capital strength and evaluation of our stock, we will opportunistically repurchase shares as we did this quarter.

此外，根據我們的資本實力和對股票的評估，我們將像本季一樣，擇機回購股票。

The $36 million of repurchases in the quarter, the new $200 million dollar, repurchase authorization, and the 13% dividend increase reflect our confidence in the path forward and the value we perceive in our stock.

本季 3,600 萬美元的股票回購、新增的 2 億美元股票回購授權以及 13% 的股息成長，反映了我們對未來發展道路的信心以及我們對公司股票價值的認可。

Our full year guidance implies an underlying combined ratio of 91 to 92, up 1 point from our expectation at the beginning of the year, driven by our actions to strengthen the current accident here.

我們全年的業績預期為綜合比率91%至92%，比年初的預期高出1個百分點，這主要得益於我們為加強當前事故所採取的措施。

We remain committed to taking a longer-term perspective, making tough decisions when necessary, and investing in profitable growth to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

我們始終致力於從更長遠的角度考慮問題，在必要時做出艱難的決定，並投資於獲利性成長，為股東創造長期價值。

Now I will turn it over to Patrick, who will provide more details about our financial results.

現在我將把發言權交給派崔克，他將提供更多關於我們財務表現的細節。

Thanks, John, and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早安。

For the quarter, fully diluted EPS was $1.85 up 26% from a year ago.

本季度，完全稀釋後每股收益為 1.85 美元，比去年同期成長 26%。

Non-GAAP operating EPS was $1.75 up 25%.

非GAAP營運每股收益為1.75美元，成長25%。

Our return on equity was 14% and our operating return on equity was 13.2% with continued strong performance from the investment portfolio.

我們的股本報酬率為 14%，經營股本報酬率為 13.2%，投資組合持續表現強勁。

The GAAP combined ratio is 98.6, elevated primarily due to 3.3 points of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development and 6.2 points of higher current year casualty loss costs.

GAAP綜合比率為98.6，主要原因是上一年意外損失準備金發展不利（3.3個百分點）及本年度意外損失成本增加（6.2個百分點）。

Catastrophe losses were 2.1 points, significantly better than anticipated, and 11.3 points better than the prior year period.

巨災損失為 2.1 個百分點，明顯優於預期，比去年同期好 11.3 個百分點。

Our full year guidance now includes a 4 point catastrophe load reflecting lower than expected catastrophe losses through the 1st 9 months.

我們全年的業績指引現在包含了 4 點的巨災損失，反映出前 9 個月的巨災損失低於預期。

The overall underlying combined ratio for the quarter was 93.2, up from 86.1 in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting higher current year casualty loss costs. Non-catastrophe property losses, although better than expected, were 0.9 points higher than last year.

本季的整體基礎綜合比率為 93.2，高於 2024 年第三季的 86.1，反映出當年意外損失成本較高。非災難財產損失雖然好於預期，但仍比去年高出 0.9 個百分點。

Year-to-date, the underlying combined ratio was 91.6, 2.6 points higher than the first nine months of 2024. Non-catastrophe property losses were 14.7 points year-to-date.

今年迄今為止，綜合比率為 91.6，比 2024 年前九個月高出 2.6 個百分點。今年迄今為止，非災害性財產損失為 14.7 個百分點。

This was an 80 basis point improvement year over year and reflected the continued benefits from property lines earned rate and the tightening of terms and conditions over the past few years.

與前一年相比，這一數字提高了 80 個基點，反映了過去幾年財產險收益率的持續增長以及條款和條件的收緊。

Year-to-date, these benefits were eclipsed by a 3.1% increase in current year casualty loss costs. The expense ratio increased by 40 basis points, primarily driven by higher expected employee compensation compared to last year's lower profit-based payouts.

今年迄今為止，這些收益被本年度意外損失成本 3.1% 的成長所抵銷。費用率上升了 40 個基點，主要原因是與去年較低的基於利潤的支出相比，預期員工薪酬增加。

We remain disciplined in managing expenses but continue to invest across our business to support scale, enhance decision making, and improve operational efficiency.

我們將繼續嚴格控制支出，同時繼續在業務各個方面進行投資，以支援規模化發展、提升決策能力和提高營運效率。

In standard commercial lines, we reported a 101.1 combined ratio this quarter, which included 3.7 points of unfavorable prior year casualty development and 6.6 points of higher current year casualty loss costs.

在標準商業險種中，我們本季報告的綜合比率為 101.1，其中包括 3.7 個點的不利上年傷亡發展和 6.6 個點的較高當年傷亡損失成本。

As John described, the current environment demands strong underwriting and pricing discipline.

正如約翰所描述的那樣，當前的環境要求嚴格的承保和定價紀律。

Consequently, premium growth in the quarter slowed to 4%.

因此，本季保費成長放緩至 4%。

Renewal pure price increased 8.9% or 10% excluding workers' compensation. The biggest increases were in general liability at 11.4% and commercial auto at 10%.

續保純價格上漲了 8.9%，若不計工傷賠償，則上漲了 10%。增幅最大的是一般責任險（11.4%）和商用汽車險（10%）。

Renewal premium change for property was 15.5%, including 5.1 points of exposure increase.

財產險續保費變動為 15.5%，其中包括 5.1 個百分點的風險敞口增加。

Retention for the quarter was 82%, down 4 points from a year ago and 1 point from last quarter.

本季顧客留存率為 82%，較去年同期下降 4 個百分點，較上一季下降 1 個百分點。

The decrease reflects our pricing and underwriting actions as well as an increasingly competitive environment.

這一下降反映了我們的定價和承保行動以及日益激烈的競爭環境。

Excess in surplus lines grew 14% in the quarter, driven by average renewal pure price increases of 8.3%. The combined ratio was 76.2.

本季超額險種的超額部分成長了14%，主要原因是續保單的平均純價格上漲了8.3%。綜合比率為76.2。

We see continued growth opportunities in this segment despite an increasingly competitive market. Our deliberate ENS strategies include introducing new products, expanding our brokerage business, and investing in operational efficiency, and piloting expanded distribution by giving retail agents access to our ENS offerings.

儘管市場競爭日益激烈，但我們認為該領域仍存在持續的成長機會。我們精心製定的 ENS 策略包括推出新產品、擴大經紀業務、投資提高營運效率，以及透過讓零售代理商獲得我們的 ENS 產品來試點擴大分銷管道。

We are excited about this segment's forward growth prospects.

我們對這一領域的未來成長前景感到興奮。

The personal lines combined ratio was 110.1 this quarter, 12 points better than a year ago. However, our New Jersey personal auto reserving actions added 4.9 points of unfavorable prior year casualty development from the 2024 accident year.

本季個人險種綜合比率為 110.1，比去年同期改善了 12 個百分點。然而，我們新澤西州的個人汽車準備金行動導致 2024 年事故年度的上一年意外事故發展不利因素增加了 4.9 個百分點。

It also drove the 7.2% increase in current year casualty loss costs this quarter.

這也導致本季當年意外損失成本增加 7.2%。

Personal lines net premiums written declined 6%. However, Target business grew 12% in the quarter, with nearly all new business being in our target mass affluent market. Renew renewal pure price for the quarter was 16.9%. The Third quarter after tax net investment income was $110 million up 18% from a year ago.

個人險種淨保費收入下降了6%。然而，Target 的業務在本季成長了 12%，幾乎所有新業務都來自我們的目標大眾富裕市場。本季續約純價格為16.9%。第三季稅後淨投資收益為1.1億美元，比上年同期成長18%。

This income generated 13.6 points of return on equity, up 50 basis points from the third quarter of 2024.

該收入產生了 13.6 個基點的股本回報率，比 2024 年第三季上升了 50 個基點。

Our investment portfolio continues to be positioned conservatively, and we have not significantly changed our investment strategy with an average credit quality of A plus and duration of 4.1 years.

我們的投資組合持續保持保守的配置，投資策略沒有重大變化，平均信用品質為 A+，久期為 4.1 年。

We delivered strong operating cash flow in the quarter supporting continued portfolio growth.

本季我們實現了強勁的營運現金流，為投資組合的持續成長提供了支持。

The average new purchase yield was an attractive 5.8% pre-tax, exceeding the quarter and average pre-tax book yield of 5.1%. We expect this embedded book yield to provide a durable source of future investment income, even if interest rates decline.

新購入股票的平均稅前收益率高達5.8%，高於季度平均稅前帳面收益率5.1%。我們預計，即使利率下降，這一帳面收益率仍將為未來的投資收益提供穩定的來源。

Turning to capital management, as John mentioned, we continue to prioritize profitable growth within our insurance business and aim to return 20% to 25% of our earnings through dividends.

談到資本管理，正如約翰所提到的，我們將繼續優先考慮保險業務的獲利成長，並力爭將 20% 至 25% 的收益以股息的形式返還給投資者。

We also opportunistically repurchase shares. These actions reflect our commitment to delivering long-term value to shareholders.

我們也會伺機回購股票。這些行動體現了我們致力於為股東提供長期價值的承諾。

We are pleased to announce a 13% increase in our quarterly dividend, our 12th consecutive annual increase. We also repurchased $36 million of common stock during the quarter, with year-to-date repurchases through September totaling $56 million.

我們很高興地宣布，我們的季度股息增加了 13%，這是我們連續第 12 年增加股息。本季我們也回購了價值 3,600 萬美元的普通股，截至 9 月，今年迄今的回購總額已達 5,600 萬美元。

Given the given the increased level of share repurchases in 2025, our board of directors authorized a new $200 million share repurchase program. This replaces the previous authorization and we expect to deploy it opportunistically.

鑑於 2025 年股票回購水準將有所提高，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 2 億美元股票回購計畫。這將取代先前的授權方式，我們計劃根據實際情況靈活部署。

We ended the quarter with $3.5 billion of GAAP equity and $3.4 billion of statutory surplus.

本季末，我們的 GAAP 權益為 35 億美元，法定盈餘為 34 億美元。

Book value per share increased 13% in the first nine months of the year, driven by our profitability at a $2.77 per share reduction in after-tax net unrealized losses. Debt to total capital declined modestly to 20.5% below our internal threshold of 25%.

今年前九個月，每股帳面價值成長了 13%，這得益於我們的獲利能力，每股稅後淨未實現虧損減少了 2.77 美元。債務與總資本比率小幅下降至 20.5%，低於我們 25% 的內部門門檻。

In light of results through the 1st 9 months of the year, we have revised our 2025 guidance as follows.

鑑於今年前 9 個月的業績，我們對 2025 年的業績預期進行瞭如下修訂。

First, we expect our 2025 GAAP combined ratio to be between 97% and 98% in line with our prior guidance. Our guidance now includes 4 points of catastrophe losses lower than our previous 6 point estimate, reflecting favorable results through the first nine months of the year.

首先，我們預計 2025 年 GAAP 綜合比率將在 97% 至 98% 之間，與我們先前的預期一致。我們目前的預期包括巨災損失比先前預估的 6 個百分點低 4 個百分點，反映出今年前九個月的良好表現。

Guidance also includes the impact of prior year casualty reserve development reported through the 3rd quarter, which equals approximately 2 points on the full year combined ratio.

該指引還包括截至第三季報告的上一年意外損失準備金發展的影響，這相當於全年綜合比率約 2 個百分點。

It also assumes no additional prior year casualty reserve development and no further change in lost cost estimates. We do not make assumptions about future reserve development as we book our best estimate each quarter.

它也假設上一年的意外損失準備金不會增加，損失成本估算也不會進一步變化。我們不會對未來的儲量發展做出假設，因為我們每季都會根據最佳預測進行提列。

Second, we also expect after-tax net investment income of $420 million up from prior guidance of $415 million.

其次，我們預期稅後淨投資收益為 4.2 億美元，高於先前預期的 4.15 億美元。

We also expect an overall effective tax rate of 21.5% and an estimated 61.1 million fully diluted weighted average shares reflecting repurchases in the first nine months of the year, and we assume no additional repurchases under our share repurchase authorization.

我們還預計整體有效稅率為 21.5%，估計完全稀釋加權平均股份為 6,110 萬股，反映了今年前九個月的回購情況，並且我們假設在我們的股份回購授權下不會進行額外的回購。

With that, we'll now turn it over to Q&A.

好了，我們現在進入問答環節。

Operator, please start our question-and-answer session.

操作員，請開始我們的問答環節。

Thank you. To ask a question, please press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. And to withdraw your question, please press 11 again. The first question comes from Michael Phillips with the Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

謝謝。如有任何疑問，請按電話上的 11 鍵，然後等待播報您的名字。如需撤回您的問題，請再按 11。第一個問題來自奧本海默研究所的麥可‧菲利普斯。您的線路已開通。

Thank you. Good morning. John, I appreciate the comments in the opening about the commercial auto, and it seems like this quarter was isolated to one a year in 11 state predominantly New Jersey, but I guess if we go back to last year when you were taking some GL charges, and I just correct me if I'm wrong here on my perception of kind of the comments, GL charges last year, you got some questions about could this spill over to commercial auto and it seemed pretty confident that it wouldn't. The last two quarters granted 60 million total in two quarters isn't a big number, but it's continued two quarters in a row. So is my perception right? And if so, kind of what's changed, maybe just New Jersey, but sort of it seems like commercial autoo now is the problem child. And if so if that wasn't the case before, so what's different.

謝謝。早安.約翰，我很欣賞你在開篇關於商用汽車的評論。看起來本季的情況僅限於一年中僅有的11個州（主要是新澤西州）發生一次。但我想，如果我們回顧去年你收取一些一般責任險費用的時候（如果我理解有誤，請糾正我），你當時被問到這些費用是否會蔓延到商用汽車領域，而你似乎很有信心不會。過去兩季總共發放了 6,000 萬，這個數字雖然不大，但卻是連續兩季發放的。我的看法是否正確？如果真是這樣，那麼究竟發生了什麼變化呢？也許只是新澤西州的情況，但現在看來，商用汽車似乎成了問題兒童。如果以前不是這樣，那現在有什麼不同呢？

Yeah, Mike, thanks for the question. So first thing, just going back to the prior comments relative to commercial auto and you you've heard me reference it as probably the earlier evidence of higher severity trends and the evidence of social inflation. I think that that comment continues to to hold weight, and what I mean by that is if you look back to our public disclosures. We have been carrying a higher assumed loss trend in commercial auto than GL dating back to 2021. And in fact, we increased our GL or I'm sorry, commercial auto liability trend assumption to 8.5% in 22 and carried it there.

是的，麥克，謝謝你的提問。首先，回到之前關於商用汽車的評論，你們可能聽我提到過，這可能是更嚴重的趨勢和社會通貨膨脹的早期證據。我認為這個評論仍然很有分量，我的意思是，如果你回顧一下我們公開披露的資訊。自 2021 年以來，我們一直認為商業汽車險的假定損失趨勢高於一般責任險。事實上，我們在 2022 年將 GL（抱歉，應該是商業汽車責任險）趨勢假設提高到 8.5%，並且一直保持在這個水平。

I think what we, what we've seen in the last two quarters is a re-acceleration of severity trend.

我認為我們在過去兩個季度看到的是疫情嚴重程度趨勢的再次加速。

Particularly in the state of New Jersey and remember New Jersey is a bigger state for us in in the commercial auto line it represents about 15%. Of our countrywide commercial auto premium and we've seen higher severity emerge there and I'm happy to talk through some of what we think might be driving that. New Jersey's always been a higher severity state across all kinds of the lines of business, but we've seen that really impact the last couple of quarters. We didn't point it out last quarter, but it was also the primary driver of our commercial.

特別是在新澤西州，請記住，新澤西州對我們來說是一個更大的州，在商用汽車領域它佔了約 15%。在我們全國範圍內的商業汽車保險費中，我們看到了更嚴重的問題，我很高興談論一些我們認為可能導致這一問題的原因。新澤西州一直是所有業務線中嚴重程度較高的州，但我們已經看到這確實對過去幾季產生了影響。上個季度我們沒有指出這一點，但這也是我們商業業績的主要驅動因素。

That we saw last quarter as well, so I would say that's the change that we've seen and recognized. I think the positive is not in it from non New Jersey perspective and commercial auto liability, not that there hasn't been some pressure there, but our actual emergence in those other states has held up reasonably well relative to our expectations.

上個季度我們也看到了這種情況，所以我認為這就是我們已經看到和認識到的變化。我認為積極的一面並不在於新澤西州以外的商業汽車責任險，雖然這方面也存在一些壓力，但我們在其他州的實際表現與預期相比還不錯。

Okay, yeah, maybe we can get into the details of Jersey and another venue or here if anybody else wants to. I appreciate that. I guess second thing for me would be you talked about the added third parties that kind of looked at reserves for you guys, the external reserves reviews, and I'm not sure I heard you correctly. It sounded like, I mean, one of my takeaways was it sounded like. As they looked at your reserves, and compared to what they see as industry trends, I sort of heard maybe a a warning sign that industry looks like there could be some deficiencies and you guys are staying ahead of it, but it sounded like some warning signs for some pockets of deficiency for the industry that just hasn't been recognized yet. And did I hear that right? Is that what you're saying?

好的，是的，如果還有其他人想的話，我們可以詳細討論澤西島和其他場地的情況。我很感激。我想說的第二點是，你提到了額外的第三方機構會幫你們查看儲備金，也就是外部儲備金審查，我不確定我是否聽清楚了。聽起來像是，我的意思是，我的其中一個感受就是聽起來像是。當他們查看你們的儲備，並與他們所看到的行業趨勢進行比較時，我隱約聽到了一種警告信號，表明行業可能存在一些不足，而你們一直走在前列。但這聽起來像是業界一些尚未被發現的不足之處的警告信號。我沒聽錯吧？你是這個意思嗎？

Yeah, I guess I'll stop short of suggesting. What you're saying there with regards to whether or not there's going to be industry challenges going forward, what I will see what I will say and reinforce though is the validation from more than one external actuarial expert that has a broader view of the industry that the elevated trends that we're responding to in the more recent accident years are evident across the industry.

嗯，我想我還是不提建議了。關於您剛才提到的未來行業是否會面臨挑戰，我想說的是，多位對行業有更廣闊視野的外部精算專家已經證實，我們在最近幾年事故頻發的時期所應對的上升趨勢，在整個行業中都是顯而易見的。

And that is clearly a statement that we've gotten from them. It's something that we've heard repeatedly from our reinsurance partners, the majority of who we just met with earlier this month out of the CIA, CIAV meeting, and I think that's, I, well it doesn't change the results that we're delivering, I think it does suggest that in fact this is something that's more widespread and again I would encourage you to look.

而這顯然是我們從他們那裡得到的聲明。我們從再保險合作夥伴那裡反覆聽到類似的說法，其中大部分合作夥伴我們在本月初的CIA、CIAV會議上都見過面。我認為這並不會改變我們正在取得的成果，但我認為這確實表明這種情況更為普遍，我再次鼓勵你們去了解一下。

Over a longer time horizon at both commercial auto liability and general liability and just look over the last 10 years up to and including the our current view of the more recent years and what you see is our performance over the long-term continues to hold up really well.

從更長的時間跨度來看，無論是商業汽車責任險還是一般責任險，只要看看過去 10 年，包括我們目前對近幾年的看法，你就會發現，我們的長期業績仍然保持得非常好。

For commercial liability and general liability against the industry.

針對行業的商業責任和一般責任。

Doesn't change the fact that these lines are under pressure and they're under continued pressure from elevated social inflationary trends, but we're reacting and we're reacting in a way that.

但這並不能改變這些線路面臨壓力，並且由於社會通膨趨勢加劇而持續面臨壓力的事實，但我們正在做出反應，而且我們正在以一種方式做出反應。

Inappropriate and I'm highly confident that when we look back.

不合適，而且我非常有信心，當我們回顧往事時，就會發現這一點。

At these more recent accident years post pandemic as they age for us and everybody else that our track record and our reputation of being a strong underwriting company history will show that that's continued to be the case.

在疫情後的這些年裡，隨著事故發生率的上升，我們和其他所有人的過往記錄和作為一家實力雄厚的承保公司的聲譽都將證明，這種情況一直持續至今。

I understand that it might not feel that way right now, but that's how we manage our business and that's how we.

我知道現在可能感覺不到這一點，但這就是我們經營業務的方式，這就是我們的行事方式。

Okay, yeah, thanks for the detail. I appreciate it and that's all I had for now thanks.

好的，謝謝你的詳細說明。非常感謝，我暫時就說這些。

And our next question will come from Michael Zarinsky with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將向 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zarinsky 提問。您的線路已開通。

Okay thanks. Good morning.

好的，謝謝。早安.

Maybe you could explain more of the thought process behind continuing to buy back shares if the you know this reserve review has been leading to the the the loss ratio of profit margin pressure and you said there's still an ongoing review of closed claims that that that will or could impact ongoing claims and ultimately reserves so I guess why not wait till the the cost is is clear.

或許您可以進一步解釋一下繼續回購股票背後的想法。如果您知道此準備金審查導致利潤率承壓，而且您也說過目前仍在對已結案件進行審查，這將或可能影響正在進行的索賠，並最終影響準備金，那麼為什麼不等到成本明朗後再做決定呢？

Well, just to clarify a point, the open claim, the open and closed claims reviews were designed to evaluate whether or not there was something happening in the claims organization that might be driving some of this. There's no evidence of that and based on the early indications we've had because the closed claims review is actually 2/3 complete, there's nothing there that would suggest any issues.

嗯，為了澄清一點，未決索賠、未決和已決索賠審查旨在評估索賠組織中是否存在某些可能導致這種情況發生的情況。目前沒有證據表明存在這種情況，而且根據我們目前掌握的早期跡象（因為已結案的索賠審查實際上已經完成了三分之二），沒有任何跡象表明存在任何問題。

With regard to reserving, we book our best estimates and we continue to book our best estimates, and we have high conviction in those.

關於預訂，我們預訂的是我們預估的最佳方案，而且我們一直都堅持這樣做，我們對這些方案非常有信心。

Estimates and that conviction has only been Reinforced by the external review.

外部審查進一步證實了先前的估計和判斷。

I think that the challenge right now is our results on an absolute basis are not the issue. It's our results on a relative.

我認為目前的問題在於，我們的絕對成績並不是問題所在。這是我們對一位親戚的檢測結果。

Causing depression.

導致抑鬱。

And with a with a 6% top-line growth rate and as we said and expect expectation.

營收成長率達到 6%，正如我們所說，也符合預期。

A 14 We are building book value per share. We're building capital and surplus, and as a result of that is the board's way of expressing confidence in our forward earnings.

14 我們正在提升每股帳面價值。我們正在累積資本和盈餘，因此，董事會以此表達了對我們未來獲利的信心。

Got it. Okay.

知道了。好的。

It is a follow-up.

這是後續報道。

And on commercial auto you took up the pick, I think 5-ish points, how much of that was influenced by the study, that you commissioned.

關於商用汽車，您選擇了 5 分左右，其中有多少是受到您委託進行的研究的影響。

Versus just, things you're seeing, or is it all commingled?

是僅僅看到這些事物，還是它們混雜在一起？

Yeah, that's the result of our internal analysis.

是的，這是我們內部分析的結果。

Again, the point we made about the outcome of the third-party review of adequacy was that.

再次重申，我們先前對第三方審查結果所提出的觀點是：

We are above their central estimate in total.

我們的總產量高於他們的中心預估值。

And the reaction as continues to be the case is based on our internal evaluation and again with regard to commercial auto that continues to be predominantly driven by the state of New Jersey and based on what we see because we have good insight into other company filings and other companies indications, frequency and severity trends in New Jersey over the last couple of years have accelerated.

目前的應對措施仍然基於我們的內部評估，而且就商業汽車而言，這主要受新澤西州的影響，並且根據我們對其他公司備案文件和其他公司跡象的深入了解，過去幾年新澤西州的頻率和嚴重程度趨勢已經加速。

And that's what we're reacting to and we're seeing that and.

這就是我們所回應的，也是我們所看到的。

Claim the merchants on the pay that incurred Jersey.

向澤西島的商家索取應得的工資。

Got it. My last follow-up, and I believe you said, 8 8. 5 is your trend assumption of commercial auto, is that correct? .

知道了。我上次的後續問題，我相信您說過，8 8.5 是您對商用車趨勢的假設，是這樣嗎？。

Yeah, it's It's been in that range dating back to 2022 and again those were our assumed loss trends that we incorporated into our expected loss ratio.

是的，自 2022 年以來一直處於這個範圍內，這些也是我們納入預期損失率的假設損失趨勢。

Yes, and so if we look at the 8.5%. I is it a correct statement for me to say that if we look at.

是的，所以如果我們看一下8.5%。我這樣說是否正確：如果我們看一下…

Your historical loss ratio development for commercial auto specifically in vintages that are more seasoned. So let's say 1,819, I'm going to exclude 20 because of the pandemic year and 21. So if I look at those vintages that are more seasoned and see how the loss ratio has trended, is it correct to say that loss inflation on those vintages has been higher than 8.5%?

您針對車齡較長的商用汽車的歷史損失率發展。假設有 1,819 個，我將排除 20 個（因為是疫情年）和 21 個。那麼，如果我觀察那些年份較長的葡萄酒，看看其虧損率的趨勢，是否可以說這些年份的葡萄酒的虧損通膨率高於 8.5%？

Yeah.

是的。

No, we're talking about the post pandemic accident years. I mean for commercial auto liability.

不，我們談論的是疫情事故後的幾年。我是指商業汽車責任險。

Those pre-pandemic years are quite mature at this point.

疫情前的那些歲月如今已經相當成熟了。

And the pressure we've seen of late has not been driven at all by those pre-pandemic accident here. So I would actually say those are But I, there's no change with regard to those. It's more of these recent actually years we're responding to and again, I think it's important to note that our average commercial auto VI rate over the last 4 to 5 years is a little over 10%.

而我們最近看到的壓力，完全不是疫情前發生的那些事故造成的。所以實際上我會說，那些是…但是，就這些而言，沒有任何變化。實際上，我們更多是在應對近幾年的情況，而且我認為有必要指出，過去 4 到 5 年我們的平均商業汽車 VI 費率略高於 10%。

So while trends have been elevated, the earn rate level has been largely offsetting that impact when you look at loss ratios and on level and trend them and look at the pre-pandemic block of years to where the current years are.

因此，儘管趨勢有所上升，但從損失率來看，收益率水平在很大程度上抵消了這種影響，你可以比較疫情前的幾年和目前的幾年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question will come from Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.

下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning. This is Jean on from here.

嗨，早安。接下來是珍的報道。

Thank you for taking my question. My first question is The general liability reserve, I know you reported no reserve development. Just curious, is there any shift among individual accident years?

感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於一般負債準備金的，我知道你們報告說沒有增加準備金。我只是好奇，不同事故年份之間是否有某種變化？

Now there's nothing notable with regard to any action that you're moving within GO. Those are stable overall.

現在，您在 GO 中執行的任何操作都沒有什麼特別之處。總體而言，這些都是穩定的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you. My second question is on your, expansion to the new state. You mentioned entering Kansas this quarter entering Montana when, next year, just curious what you're seeing in these markets. What's the initial agent, receptive.

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於您向新州的擴張。您提到本季將進入堪薩斯州，明年將進入蒙大拿州，我只是好奇您在這些市場看到了什麼。初始代理是什麼？接受者。

Receptivity on that, and what feedback do you have?

您對此有何看法？您有什麼回饋意見？

Yeah, I would say in this.

是的，我會這麼說。

Ongoing Results Favorable performances in in line.

持續取得良好成果，符合預期。

And again, as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, one of our organizational priorities.

正如我在準備好的演講稿中指出的那樣，這是我們組織的優先事項之一。

Diversify our business and part of that diversification is geographic. Part of it is more of business and product and part of it is across the three primary businesses commercial.

實現業務多元化，而多元化的一部分就是地域多元化。一部分涉及業務和產品，一部分涉及三大主要業務的商業面。

And that the expansion is a big part of. I And commercial lines and a part of it is talking a lot about.

而擴張正是其中的重要組成部分。我和商業線路，其中一部分內容都在談論。

Morning State that that we have performed well in across our lines over the long-term, but they're at the top.

早間新​​聞指出，我們長期以來在各方面都表現出色，但他們目前處於領先地位。

That we were trying to manage and over the last decade, our New Jersey share has gone from north of 20% to about 60%.

我們一直在努力管理，在過去的十年裡，我們在新澤西州的份額已經從 20% 以上增長到 60% 左右。

And we think that will continue to happen going forward with our expansion. I think that's just part of.

我們認為，隨著公司規模的擴大，這種情況還會繼續發生。我認為這只是其中的一部分。

To greater diversification.

為了實現更多元化。

Got it. Just to follow-up on that, are there any lines or customer segment you're seeing, especially strong interest from distribution department?

知道了。只是為了跟進這一點，您是否看到任何線路或客戶群，特別是來自分銷部門的強烈興趣？

I would say our performance in our expansion states over the last 8 years, the mix of business is generally reflective of the mix we we've seen in our existing footprint.

我認為，過去 8 年我們在擴張地區的業績，其業務組合總體上反映了我們在現有業務範圍內所看到的業務組合。

On a line and a segment basis.

按線路和線段進行。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you. I appreciate the call.

謝謝。感謝您的來電。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question will come from Paul Newsom with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

下一個問題將由保羅·紐瑟姆和派珀·桑德勒提出。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, thanks for the call.

早安，謝謝你的來電。

So I guess the first question would be any thoughts you could give us on how we should think about premium growth? I mean, I think we could figure out the size of your commercial auto business in New Jersey, but, I guess the following question would be.

所以我想問的第一個問題是，您對我們應該如何看待保費成長有什麼看法？我的意思是，我想我們可以估算您在新澤西州的商業汽車業務規模，但是，我想接下來的問題應該是：

If that business tends to shrink, as you become more conservative, does it affect the package business? I think of you folks as being a package provider more than anything else, any thoughts that kind of, might give it push us in the right direction would be great.

如果隨著你變得更加保守，該業務趨於萎縮，這是否會影響包裝業務？我認為你們更像是一個包裹提供商，任何能幫助我們朝著正確方向前進的想法都將不勝感激。

Yeah, sure, so I'll give you some sort of higher level thoughts around this first and foremost, and I'll say this has always been the case. We think about growth as more of an outcome as opposed to a target, and for us it's always about striving to achieve your target margins and then growth will be determined in part by market dynamics and whether the market is reacting in a similar fashion and has a similar view of indicated rate or adequate rate levels on state and line of business basis.

當然，首先我會從更高的層面談談我的看法，我認為情況一直都是如此。我們認為成長更多的是一種結果，而不是一個目標。對我們來說，始終是努力實現目標利潤率，然後成長將部分取決於市場動態，以及市場是否以類似的方式做出反應，以及對各州和各業務線的指示利率或適當利率水平是否有類似的看法。

And there's no question, and you hear the commentary and you see the industry pricing surveys that would suggest that our pricing our actual pricing being achieved in GL and commercial auto liability are above where industry surveys are currently showing market pricing that has and will.

毫無疑問，你聽聽評論，看看行業定價調查，你會發現，我們在一般責任險和商業汽車責任險方面實際實現的定價高於行業調查目前顯示的市場定價，而且這種定價將會持續下去。

Some pressure on conversion rates and as we said on multiple occasions that's a trade-off that we're willing to make and I think what you saw in the quarter is is reflective of that.

轉換率面臨一些壓力，正如我們多次所說，這是我們願意做出的權衡，我認為你們在本季度看到的業績也反映了這一點。

New Jersey, as I mentioned earlier, is about 15% of our auto premium across the country in commercial auto premium. And if you look at New Jersey in total, it's a, it's a similar percentage of our footprint.

正如我之前提到的，新澤西州的商業汽車保險費約佔全國汽車保險費的 15%。如果把新澤西州整體來看，它在我們業務版圖中所佔的比例也與之類似。

So we are going to, when we have underperforming pockets of business like we're talking about with regards to New Jersey commercial auto, we will take aggressive action to address that, and that will impact growth without question, and that's a trade-off of will.

因此，當我們遇到表現不佳的業務領域（例如我們談論的新澤西商用汽車業務）時，我們將採取積極行動來解決這個問題，這無疑會影響成長，這是一種意志的權衡。

That sounds good.

聽起來很好。

Another question would be any additional help on thinking about.

另一個問題是，您能否就此提供一些額外的思考協助？

The level of the forward a year maybe excluding conashi losses, obviously you bumped up in this quarter, because of the commercial auto issues in New Jersey and other places, but I don't know if that's a good run rate for the future or if we should think about, maybe the the run rate on your day results is a better run rate. Any thoughts you have there in terms of, what might be a higher accent your loss ratio perspectively, and I realized some of this has to do with pricing and.

如果排除 Conashi 的損失，一年的預期水平顯然有所提高，因為新澤西州和其他地方的商業汽車問題，但我不知道這是否是一個好的未來運行率，或者我們是否應該考慮，也許您當天的業績運行率是一個更好的運行率。你有什麼想法嗎？例如，從某種角度來看，更高的口音可能會導致你的損失率增加？我意識到其中一些與定價有關。

And perhaps even a lag between, getting the pricing and.

或許在定價和最終定價之間還存在著一定的延遲。

And actually bring it in over time.

並隨著時間的推移將其引入。

Yeah, so I guess, well, the best place to really focus if you look at the 9.

是的，所以我想，如果你仔細觀察9，你會發現最好的關注點是9。

And then look at the full year guidance.

然後再看看全年業績指引。

The full year guidance Of with our 4 point assumption.

全年指導價為 4 點，符合我們的假設。

Gets you to an underlying combined ratio and actually your basis of.

讓您了解基本綜合比率以及您的實際基礎。

And I because you've got 2 points of PYD, roughly 2 points of PYD.

因為你有 2 個 PYD 點，大約 2 個 PYD 點。

In the in the current year.

在今年。

And you've got the adjustments to the current year casualty loss costs.

而且，本年度的意外損失成本也進行了調整。

That are adding Got non cap and expense favorable, so we put all those.

這些都是因為增加了無上限和費用優惠，所以我們把這些都放進去了。

And I think as you're thinking about one week I would focus more on that.

我認為，如果你要考慮一週的時間安排，我會更專注於此。

To that underlies our guidance.

這就是我們指導原則的根本。

For the whole year And I'm happy to go through those, yeah, I know there's there's moving pieces there, but you have to incorporate the current or lost cost changes that we've been making.

一整年都是如此。我很樂意仔細研究這些，是的，我知道其中有很多變數，但你必須把我們一直在進行的當前或損失的成本變化考慮進去。

But you've got to also adjust for the PYD impact.

但你還得考慮 PYD 的影響。

Great thank you appreciate the help as always.

非常感謝，一如既往地感激您的幫助。

And the next question will come from Bob Wong with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Wong。您的線路已開通。

Yeah, so first question is on the 2025 developments.

是的，第一個問題是關於 2025 年的發展。

I think last quarter, you talked about 2025 was still favorable to expectations. Can you remind us, so, can you remind us if that is still the case, comparing the 2025 picks to the 2024 and the prior picks?

我認為上個季度您談到的 2025 年仍然符合預期。您能否提醒我們一下，2025 年的選秀結果與 2024 年及之前的選秀結果相比，情況是否仍然如此？

Yeah, just I want to clarify one point. So what we've said, and I'll, we'll continue to say is that claim frequencies in the current year have been running in line with or better than expected, and we pointed particularly to workers' comp as the line that was driving the the better than expected claim counts.

是的，我只是想澄清一點。因此，我們已經說過，而且我還會繼續說，今年的索賠頻率與預期一致或更好，我們特別指出工人補償是推動索賠數量好於預期的因素。

In casualty lines, you never want to react that quickly to favorable claim counts, but those claim counts have continued to come in better than expected.

在意外傷害保險領域，你永遠不應該對有利的理賠數量做出如此迅速的反應，但理賠數量卻持續好於預期。

That's what that that's what we said last quarter and that's what I'll repeat again.

這就是我們上個季度說過的話，我再重複一次。

And that's different from the decision that we made in the quarter to book additional loss ratio impact in the.

這與我們在本季做出的計入額外損失率影響的決定不同。

The line of business specifically.

具體來說，就是該業務線。

Driven largely driven by the state of New Jersey.

主要是由新澤西州推動的。

Okay, no, that, that's helpful. Second question, and apologies, this is a hypothetical.

好的，不，這很有幫助。第二個問題，抱歉，這只是個假設性的問題。

Does it make sense to kind of Find or somehow explore ways to have a bigger, much bigger balance sheet, either through like a variety of other ways of, thinking about the business going forward. Like wouldn't that kind of reduce the reserve volatility. And would that also maybe better absorb reserve volatility? Is there a way to think about? Does it make sense for selective to find a way to somehow explore opportunities to have a much bigger balance sheet one way or another?

透過各種其他方式思考未來的業務，尋找或探索獲得更大、更大的資產負債表的方法是否有意義？這樣豈不是能降低儲備波動性嗎？這樣是否也能更好地吸收儲備波動？有什麼思考方法嗎？對於精選企業來說，想辦法探索各種機會，以某種方式擴大資產負債表規模，這是否合理？

I, in our view, this It's still about getting the fundamentals right and and achieving your target loss ratios, I think, and again I realize there's re biased and there's been some challenges in an uncertain loss trend environment and we are, a little bit overweight to commercial on liability, general liability which has created some near term challenges, but I think when you look at it over the long-term and the way we've optimize the balance sheet and maximize shareholder returns. And delivers consistent strong performance from an underwriting perspective like we like the strategy we like the operating model and that's going to continue to be our focus.

我認為，在我們看來，這仍然關乎基本面的正確性和實現目標損失率，我認為，我再次意識到存在偏見，並且在不確定的損失趨勢環境中存在一些挑戰，我們在商業責任、一般責任方面略微過重，這帶來了一些短期挑戰，但我認為，從長遠來看，我們優化資產負債表和最大化股東回報的方式。從核保角度來看，該公司業績持續強勁，我們喜歡其策略和營運模式，這將繼續是我們的關注重點。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you very much. I really appreciate it.

非常感謝。我真的很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question comes from Michael Zorinsky with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zorinsky。您的線路已開通。

I appreciate you letting me in a follow-ups. One thing that caught my attention was, you talked about our PC for property that some like accelerating into the fifteens, I think we've been seeing a desal, industry wide, what, what's causing that?

感謝您允許我進行後續跟進。有一件事引起了我的注意，你談到了我們房地產的PC（個人電腦價格）有些人喜歡加速到15美元，我認為我們已經看到整個行業都在經歷脫鹽，這是什麼原因造成的？

I would say that we've seen a little bit of deceleration in in property, but in our mind, property is a is a line that while the results have improved and continue to improve and rate remains strong, it's a line that on a risk adjusted basis you have to think about the longer-term variability and volatility in both non-A and cap property. So our our risk adjusted combined ratio of target for that line is lower, so we're going to continue to TRY to improve margins there.

我認為我們已經看到房地產市場出現了一些放緩，但在我們看來，房地產市場是一條線，雖然業績有所改善並將繼續改善，利率也保持強勁，但從風險調整的角度來看，你必須考慮非A級和資本型房地產的長期波動性和變異性。因此，我們針對該險種的風險調整後綜合比率目標較低，因此我們將繼續努力提高該險種的利潤率。

So, and the exposure change has been in that renewal premium change that that you're referencing and the rate is.

所以，風險敞口的變化體現在你提到的續保保費的變化中，而費率是。

10% so that's held in strong, but it's drifted down a little bit and we would expect based on on market dynamics for property commercial property pricing to drift down.

10%，所以這個數字保持強勁，但略有下降，根據房地產市場動態，我們預計商業房地產價格會下降。

But remain strong against the relatively low exposure trend in that or lost friends.

但要抵制這種相對低曝光率的趨勢，否則就會失去朋友。

Got it and lastly just stepping back thinking about kind of these corrective actions you're taking to improve profitability yeah I think when we think of selective right you all target to have, well into the double-digit, share of I guess you think you call share of wallet with your agency partners.

明白了。最後，退後一步思考一下，你們正在採取哪些糾正措施來提高獲利能力。是的，我認為當我們考慮選擇性的時候，你們的目標是在你們的代理合作夥伴中佔據兩位數的份額，我想你們稱之為錢包份額。

And so it does that, and you also talk about the market becoming a bit more competitive overall so is there it does it.

所以它確實做到了這一點，而且你也提到市場整體變得更加競爭激烈，所​​以它確實做到了這一點。

In your view, these corrective actions, do they need to, be kind of dealt over many quarters in order to not let retention continue falling, maybe into the 70s is that kind of are you walking that that line?

在你看來，這些糾正措施是否需要分成多個季度進行，才能避免員工留存率持續下降，甚至跌至 70% 左右？你是否在走鋼索？

Yeah, it's a great question. First thing I'll say is I think the benefit of depth of relationship that we have and size of relationship we have agency by agency is beneficial because the renewal negotiation ensures that we have good communication back and forth.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。首先我想說的是，我認為我們與各代理機構之間關係的深度和規模是有益的，因為續約談判確保了我們之間良好的溝通。

What I will say is, and I mentioned this, and this was sort of underlies our discussion about improving the fundamentals. It's important that in an environment like this you execute your pricing and underwriting strategies in as granular a fashion as possible by account by class, by state by line of business, and our ability to continue to do that and do that effectively should.

我想說的是，我之前也提到過，這其實是我們討論如何改進基本面的基礎。重要的是，在這樣的環境中，您要按照帳戶、類別、州和業務線盡可能細緻地執行定價和承保策略，我們有能力繼續這樣做，並且有效地做到這一點。

Mitigate some of the downward impact on retention overall. Now again, we are willing to make that trade.

減輕對整體留存率的負面影響。現在，我們再次願意進行這樣的交易。

If push comes to shove, but the granularity of our execution will ultimately determine how agents respond to that and how the overall retention rate responds to that, and I'll put that in the category of one of the areas that will continue to focus on from a continuous improvement perspective is the granularity of execution. I think we have to put the tools to do that. We want to make sure we're we're effectively executing with those tools.

如果情況緊急，但我們執行的粒度最終將決定代理商如何應對，以及整體保留率如何應對，我將把它放在從持續改進角度繼續關注的領域之一中，即執行的粒度。我認為我們必須為此提供必要的工具。我們希望確保能夠有效地利用這些工具。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question will come from Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

下一個問題將來自奧本海默公司的邁克爾·菲利普斯。您的線路已開通。

Oh hey, thanks. Let me, thanks for letting me back in. I had two follow-ups also, John, I think you said Jersey frequency severity kind of rising over the last couple of years. If I heard that correctly, does that mean that we should be worried in the future about ax your 23?

哦，謝謝。讓我進去吧，謝謝你讓我回來。約翰，我還有兩個後續問題，我想你說過，新澤西州的發病率和嚴重程度在過去幾年裡有所上升。如果我沒聽錯的話，這是否意味著我們將來應該擔心你的 23 歲生日？

No, I would suggest that we continue to book our best estimate across all accident years. So you know our response this quarter what we saw this quarter was driven by the 24 accident year, but the actions last quarter were the 22 through 24 accident year. So I would say that, we're talking about the.

不，我建議我們繼續按照我們所有事故年份的最佳估價進行預訂。所以你知道，我們本季的應對措施是由 24 起事故年度推動的，但上個季度的行動是針對 22 至 24 起事故年度採取的。所以我想說，我們正在討論的是…

Commercial auto reserve position across the recent accident years and are acting accordingly across all of those.

商業汽車儲備在最近幾年的事故中處於領先地位，並正在採取相應的行動。

Okay, and, and then Yeah, okay, thank you, given the, third parties have kind of confirmed and give you some confidence in what you're booking, have you ruled out or have you considered, maybe an LPT for your reserves on the casualty side to help get some confidence in what you're booking?

好的，然後，是的，好的，謝謝，鑑於第三方已經確認並讓您對所預訂的內容有信心，您是否排除或考慮過，也許在傷亡方面為您的儲備金設立 LPT，以幫助您獲得對所預訂內容的信心？

Say that you know reinsurance opportunities including some sort of a cover like that are things that we routinely evaluate.

假設您了解再保險機會，包括某種類似的保險，這些都是我們日常評估的內容。

But at the same time, these are very recent accident years. We're confident in how we're booking those accident years and the economics on that would not be favorable.

但同時，這些都是最近幾年發生的事故。我們對事故年份的安排方式很有信心，而且這樣做的經濟效益並不理想。

Perspective Because that these are immature years and anybody who's going to come in on the reinsurance side is going to command a lot of the economics and that's just not something we think is all that attractive but we'll continue to evaluate it. We just don't think it makes sense for us.

觀點：因為現在還處於不成熟的階段，任何進入再保險領域的公司都將掌握許多經濟利益，我們認為這並不那麼有吸引力，但我們會繼續評估。我們只是認為這對我們來說沒有意義。

Okay, makes sense thank you.

好的，明白了，謝謝。

I am showing no further questions at this time in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to John for closing remarks.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我想把電話交還給約翰，請他做總結發言。

Well, thank you for joining us. We appreciate the questions and the interest and as always, please feel free to follow-up with Brad with any additional questions.

好的，感謝您加入我們。感謝大家的提問與關注，如有任何其他問題，歡迎隨時聯絡 Brad。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。