Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGIP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to Selective's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Selective 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brad Wilson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人布拉德威爾遜（Brad Wilson），他是投資者關係高級副總裁兼財務主管。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for joining Selective's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call on short notice.

感謝您在短時間內參加 Selective 的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, we posted our earnings press release, financial supplement, and investor presentation on the Investors section of our website, selective.com. The investor presentation includes a new exhibit highlighting our historical reserve development and relevant comparisons.

昨天，我們在我們網站 selected.com 的投資者部分發布了收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和投資者簡報。投資者介紹包括一個新的展覽，重點介紹我們的歷史儲量開發和相關比較。

A replay of the webcast will be posted there shortly after this call.

這次電話會議後不久將發佈網路廣播的重播。

Today, we will discuss our financial performance, market conditions, and expectations for the rest of 2024.

今天，我們將討論我們的財務表現、市場狀況以及 2024 年剩餘時間的預期。

John Marchioni, our Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Harnett, our Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Interim Chief Financial Officer, will make remarks before we move to our question-and-answer session.

約翰‧馬爾基奧尼 (John Marchioni)，我們的董事會主席、總裁兼執行長；我們的高級副總裁、首席會計官兼臨時首席財務官托尼·哈內特 (Tony Harnett) 將在我們進入問答環節之前發表講話。

Our commentary today references non-GAAP measures we and the investment community use to make it easier to evaluate our insurance business.

我們今天的評論引用了我們和投資界使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準，以便更輕鬆地評估我們的保險業務。

These non-GAAP measures include operating income, operating return on common equity, and adjusted book value per common share.

這些非公認會計準則指標包括營業收入、普通股營業回報率和調整後每股普通股帳面價值。

We include GAAP reconciliations to any referenced non-GAAP financial measures in the financial supplements posted on our website.

我們在我們網站上發布的財務補充資料中包含了對任何引用的非公認會計準則財務指標的公認會計準則調節表。

We will also make statements and projections about our future performance.

我們也將對未來的業績做出陳述和預測。

These are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and not guarantees of future performance.

這些是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的前瞻性陳述，並非對未來績效的保證。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that we disclosed in our annual, quarterly, and current reports filed with the SEC.

這些聲明受到我們在向 SEC 提交的年度、季度和當前報告中披露的風險和不確定性的影響。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With those introductory remarks, I'll now turn the call to John.

做完這些介紹發言後，我現在將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Brad, and good morning.

謝謝布拉德，早安。

This was a challenging quarter.

這是一個充滿挑戰的季度。

We hold ourselves to a high standard exhibited by the profitability and growth we strive for and have consistently achieved over the long term.

我們堅持高標準，這體現在我們努力追求並長期持續實現的獲利能力和成長。

Our consistent and disciplined approach to underwriting, pricing, and reserving is the foundation underlying our strong track record.

我們在承保、定價和儲備方面始終如一、嚴格的方法是我們良好業績記錄的基礎。

That foundation remains as strong as ever.

這項基礎仍然一如既往地牢固。

However, the industry-wide social inflationary trends have continued to put upward pressure on average severities in the general liability line of business.

然而，全行業的社會通膨趨勢繼續對一般責任業務的平均嚴重程度構成上行壓力。

Catastrophe losses and our reserve strengthening drove the 116.1% combined ratio in the quarter.

巨災損失和儲備金加強推動本季綜合成本率達 116.1%。

As a result, we had an operating loss of $1.10 per diluted common share and an operating ROE of negative 9.6%.

結果，我們的稀釋普通股營運虧損為 1.10 美元，營運股本回報率為負 9.6%。

This brought our year-to-date operating ROE to 1.1%.

這使我們今年迄今的營運 ROE 達到 1.1%。

Our revised full-year guidance implies an ROE in the upper single-digit range below our 12% target.

我們修訂後的全年指引意味著股本回報率處於個位數上限，低於我們 12% 的目標。

Although earnings this quarter were challenged, our capital position remains strong, and our underlying combined ratio of 91.4%, which includes an updated run rate for general liability, positions us well moving forward.

儘管本季獲利受到挑戰，但我們的資本狀況依然強勁，我們的基本綜合成本率為 91.4%（其中包括更新的一般負債運行率），使我們能夠順利前進。

We maintain our disciplined focus and execution in the areas of risk selection, pricing, and claims management in the face of this challenging and dynamic loss trend environment.

面對這種充滿挑戰和動態的損失趨勢環境，我們在風險選擇、定價和索賠管理領域中保持嚴格的關注和執行力。

This has positioned us as an industry leader.

這使我們成為行業領導者。

With our run rate profitability, we are confident in our ability to quickly reestablish our earnings profile that consistently meets or exceeds our 12% operating ROE target.

憑藉我們的運行率獲利能力，我們有信心能夠快速重建獲利狀況，持續達到或超過 12% 的營運 ROE 目標。

We've been very transparent about our assumed loss trend, which we have consistently increased over the past several years.

我們對假設的損失趨勢非常透明，過去幾年我們的損失趨勢一直在增加。

For general liability, we increased our assumed loss trend to 9% for 2024 from 4% in 2020.

對於一般責任，我們將假設的損失趨勢從 2020 年的 4% 提高到 2024 年的 9%。

While reported frequencies in the more recent accident years continued to emerge at or better than our expectations, we continue to see average severities exceed our elevated expectations.

儘管最近幾年報告的事故頻率繼續達到或比我們的預期，但我們仍然看到平均嚴重程度超出了我們較高的預期。

The most recent accident years are still relatively immature, but rather than hope these severity trends flatten as those years mature, we believed it was prudent to react to the early severity emergence we are experiencing.

最近的事故年份仍然相對不成熟，但我們不希望這些嚴重程度趨勢隨著這些年份的成熟而趨於平緩，而是認為對我們正在經歷的早期嚴重情況做出反應是謹慎的。

While we reacted to the actual emergence, our action this quarter also contemplated some potential continuation of these trends.

雖然我們對實際出現的情況做出了反應，但我們本季的行動也考慮到了這些趨勢可能會持續下去。

Specifically, we recorded $176 million or 16.3 points of net unfavorable prior-year casualty development within our commercial lines segment, $166 million was in the general liability line of business, 90% of this quarter's general liability action relates to accident years 2020 through 2023, similar to the action we took in the first quarter.

具體來說，我們在商業險業務部門記錄了1.76 億美元或上年不利淨傷亡發展的16.3 個百分點，一般責任業務線有1.66 億美元，本季一般責任訴訟的90% 與2020 年至2023 年的事故有關，與我們在第一季採取的行動類似。

Our year-end 2023 actions were mostly associated with accident years 2020 and prior.

我們 2023 年底的行動主要與 2020 年及之前的事故年數有關。

As older accident years continue to mature, we gain greater confidence in our estimates, and further development has been modest in 2019 and prior.

隨著舊事故年份的不斷成熟，我們對自己的估計更有信心，並且 2019 年及之前的進一步發展較為溫和。

This increases our confidence in the adjustments we are now making to accident years 2020 and subsequent, which puts us in a stronger overall reserve position.

這增強了我們對 2020 年及後續事故年進行的調整的信心，這使我們處於更強大的整體儲備地位。

Given the consistency in our underwriting appetite and risk profile over time, our corrective actions are primarily focused on achieving additional rate with a continued emphasis on prudent underwriting.

鑑於我們的承保偏好和風險狀況隨著時間的推移保持一致，我們的糾正措施主要集中在實現額外利率，並繼續強調審慎承保。

Taking a step back, our full-year 2023 standard commercial lines combined ratio was 94.9%, in line with our 95% target.

退一步來說，我們2023年全年標準商業航線綜合成本率為94.9%，符合我們95%的目標。

Excluding the impact of prior-year casualty reserve development, our 2024 year-to-date standard commercial lines combined ratio is 96.4%.

剔除上一年傷亡準備金發展的影響，我們的 2024 年迄今標準商業航線綜合成本率為 96.4%。

Consequently, we must get additional rate to achieve our 95% target.

因此，我們必須獲得額外的比率才能達到 95% 的目標。

In the second quarter, general liability renewal pure price increased to 7.6%.

第二季度，一般責任續保純價格成長至7.6%。

This was 110 basis points higher than the first quarter 6.5% and 220 basis points above full-year 2023's 5.4%.

這比第一季的 6.5% 高出 110 個基點，比 2023 年全年的 5.4% 高出 220 個基點。

We expect that general liability pricing will further increase in the second half of the year.

我們預計下半年一般負債定價將進一步上漲。

We entered 2024 with an overall expected loss trend of 7% with casualty at 8% and property of 4%.

進入 2024 年，我們的整體預期損失趨勢為 7%，其中傷亡為 8%，財產為 4%。

In the second quarter, standard commercial lines renewal pure price was 7.9%, up 30 basis points from the first quarter 7.6% and 120 basis points higher than a year ago.

第二季度，標準商業線路續保純價格為7.9%，較一季的7.6%上漲30個基點，較去年同期上漲120個基點。

Excluding workers' compensation, commercial lines pricing increased 9.1%.

不計工人賠償，商業線定價上漲 9.1%。

Exposure growth added 4.3 points, contributing to a total renewal premium change of 12.6%.

風險敞口成長增加 4.3 個百分點，導致總續保保費變動 12.6%。

In addition, commercial property at 12.1% and commercial auto at 10.8% continue to generate the highest pure rate increases within our standard commercial lines segment.

此外，商業房地產（12.1%）和商用汽車（10.8%）繼續在我們的標準商業線路細分市場中產生最高的純增長率。

Let me now shift to our other segments.

現在讓我談談我們的其他部分。

Excess and surplus continued strong performance with excellent topline growth and a 94.6% combined ratio despite elevated catastrophe losses.

儘管災難損失增加，超額和盈餘繼續保持強勁的業績，營收成長出色，綜合成本率為 94.6%。

In total, E&S net premiums written increased 39% in the quarter with strong contributions from our contract binding and brokerage operations.

總的來說，本季 E&S 淨承保保費成長了 39%，這得益於我們的合約綁定和經紀業務的強勁貢獻。

The E&S market opportunity continues to be robust with elevated submissions within our existing appetite at attractive pricing.

E&S 市場機會繼續強勁，在我們現有的胃口內以有吸引力的價格提交了更多的申請。

Our E&S technology investments are paying dividends.

我們的 E&S 技術投資正在帶來紅利。

We've modernized our rate, quote, and bind platform which has improved operational efficiency.

我們對費率、報價和綁定平台進行了現代化改造，提高了營運效率。

We are focused on investments to build scale and continue taking advantage of attractive market conditions.

我們專注於擴大規模的投資，並繼續利用有吸引力的市場條件。

Personal lines net premiums written increased 6% in the quarter due to strong renewal pure pricing of 20.7% and larger average policy size, partially offset by declining new business and lower retentions.

由於 20.7% 的強勁續保純定價和較大的平均保單規模，本季個人險保費淨承保增長了 6%，但新業務下降和保費保留率下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Retention in the quarter was 78%, down 10 points from the second quarter of 2023 and in line with our expectations given our actions to shift to the mass affluent market.

本季的留存率為 78%，比 2023 年第二季下降 10 個百分點，符合我們向大眾富裕市場轉移的預期。

We are taking a balanced approach in personal lines, promoting growth in areas where rates are adequate and limiting new business in states needing additional rate approvals.

我們在個人業務方面採取平衡的方法，促進費率充足的地區的成長，並限制需要額外費率批准的州的新業務。

Overall, we are making progress towards profitability in this segment as the quarter's underlying combined ratio improved by 3.4 points compared to the second quarter of 2023.

總體而言，我們在該領域的獲利能力方面正在取得進展，本季的基本綜合成本率比 2023 年第二季提高了 3.4 個百分點。

Nonetheless, we have more work to do and remain highly focused on strengthening our rate plans and achieving rate adequacy.

儘管如此，我們還有更多工作要做，並繼續高度關注加強我們的費率計劃並實現費率充足。

Across our three insurance segments, we will continue to balance growth and profitability with the goal of consistently achieving a 95% combined ratio.

在我們的三個保險領域，我們將繼續平衡成長和獲利能力，目標是持續實現 95% 的綜合成本率。

Our pricing discipline, strong relationships with our distribution partners, and sophisticated analytical tools have enabled us to effectively balance rate and retention over the long term.

我們的定價紀律、與分銷合作夥伴的牢固關係以及先進的分析工具使我們能夠長期有效地平衡費率和保留率。

We see the same opportunity going forward.

我們看到了同樣的機會。

With that, I'll now turn the call to Tony to discuss our quarterly financial results in more detail.

現在，我將致電托尼，更詳細地討論我們的季度財務表現。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。

We reported a fully diluted net loss of $1.8 per share in the second quarter and a non-GAAP operating loss of $1.10 per share.

我們報告第二季度的完全攤薄淨虧損為每股 1.8 美元，非 GAAP 營運虧損為每股 1.10 美元。

This brings our year-to-date return on equity and operating return on equity to 1.1%.

這使得我們年初至今的股本回報率和營運股本回報率達到 1.1%。

Our GAAP combined ratio was 116.1% in the quarter, including 16.3 points of unfavorable prior-year casualty reserve development and 8.4 points of catastrophe losses.

本季我們的 GAAP 綜合成本率為 116.1%，其中包括去年不利的傷亡準備發展 16.3 個百分點和巨災損失 8.4 個百分點。

Catastrophes were widespread with 28 events impacting results this quarter.

災難廣泛存在，本季有 28 起事件影響業績。

The underlying combined ratio deteriorated by 1.4 points compared to a year ago, primarily due to a 0.5 point increase in non-cat property losses and reserve actions in the current accident year.

與去年同期相比，基礎綜合成本率下降了 1.4 個百分點，主要是由於當前事故年度的非巨災財產損失和準備金行動增加了 0.5 個百分點。

Adverse prior-year casualty reserve development in the quarter totaled $176 million with $166 million in general liability and $10 million in commercial auto.

本季的上年不利傷亡準備金總額為 1.76 億美元，其中一般責任險為 1.66 億美元，商用汽車險為 1,000 萬美元。

As John described, the reserve strengthening was severity driven and concentrated in the more recent accident years as we continued to experience elevated loss emergence in the quarter.

正如約翰所描述的，準備金的加強是由嚴重性驅動的，並且集中在最近的事故年份，因為我們在本季度繼續經歷了較高的損失。

We attribute this mainly to the continued impacts of social inflation.

我們將此主要歸因於社會通貨膨脹的持續影響。

Frequency continues to be generally in line with our expectations.

頻率仍然基本上符合我們的預期。

The general liability development is primarily related to the 2020 through 2023 accident years.

一般責任發展主要與 2020 年至 2023 年事故年有關。

While these more recent accident years are still relatively immature and paid losses as a percent of expected ultimate losses are relatively low, our response is prudent given the trends and elevated uncertainty.

雖然這些最近發生的事故年份仍然相對不成熟，支付的損失佔預期最終損失的百分比也相對較低，但考慮到趨勢和不確定性的增加，我們的反應是謹慎的。

Consequently, we also took action in the current accident year impacting results in the quarter by $28 million or approximately 2.6 points on the overall combined ratio.

因此，我們也在當前事故年度採取了行動，影響本季業績 2,800 萬美元，即整體綜合成本率約 2.6 個百分點。

Notably, the general liability reserving action we took in the fourth quarter last year predominantly on older accident years held up reasonably well over the last six months.

值得注意的是，我們在去年第四季主要針對較早事故年份採取的一般責任準備金行動在過去六個月中保持得相當好。

As these years mature, we are gaining increased confidence in our estimates.

隨著這些年的成熟，我們對我們的估計越來越有信心。

In the current quarter, the reserve adjustment was 8% of our net reserves for general liability and 4% of our overall net reserves.

本季度，準備金調整為一般負債淨準備金的 8% 和整體淨準備金的 4%。

This represented an average of about 4 points on the general liability combined ratio across each of the impacted accident years.

這代表每個受影響事故年份的一般責任綜合比率平均約為 4 個百分點。

Our expense ratio in the second quarter was better than expected and improved by 1.1 points compared to a year ago.

我們第二季的費用率優於預期，比去年同期改善了1.1個百分點。

The expense ratio improvement was primarily due to reductions in employee and agent compensation accruals that reflect our updated view of 2024 underwriting performance.

費用率的改善主要是由於員工和代理人應計薪酬的減少，這反映了我們對 2024 年承保業績的最新看法。

We now expect the expense ratio to finish the year about 1 point better than full-year 2023.

我們現在預計今年的費用率將比 2023 年全年高出約 1 個百分點。

After-tax net investment income was $86 million in the second quarter, up 11% from last year and contributed 12.5 points of ROE.

第二季稅後淨投資收益為8,600萬美元，較去年增長11%，貢獻12.5個百分點的ROE。

Alternative investments, which report on a one-quarter lag, generated $8.3 million of after-tax income in the quarter, down slightly from $9 million a year ago.

另類投資報告有一個季度的滯後，該季度產生了 830 萬美元的稅後收入，略低於一年前的 900 萬美元。

In the second quarter, we invested over $500 million of new money at an average pretax yield of 6.4%.

第二季度，我們投資了超過 5 億美元的新資金，平均稅前收益率為 6.4%。

The fixed income portfolio's overall pre-tax book yield increased modestly in the quarter, ending at approximately 4.8%, and meaningfully higher book yield embedded in our portfolio should provide a durable source of income as we move forward.

本季固定收益投資組合的整體稅前帳面收益率小幅增長，最終達到約 4.8%，我們的投資組合中明顯更高的帳面收益率應該會為我們的前進提供持久的收入來源。

Overall, the portfolio remains conservatively positioned.

整體而言，投資組合仍保持保守定位。

The higher interest rate environment allows us to deploy capital in investment-grade securities at attractive levels, raising the bar for investing risk assets.

較高的利率環境使我們能夠以有吸引力的水平將資本配置於投資等級證券，從而提高了投資風險資產的門檻。

Fixed income and short-term investments represented 92% of the portfolio on June 30 with an average credit quality of double A minus and a duration of 3.9 years.

截至6月30日，固定收益和短期投資佔投資組合的92%，平均信用品質為雙A-，久期為3.9年。

Turning to reinsurance, we successfully completed the renewals of our July 1, 2024 property and casualty excess of loss treaties covering standard commercial lines, standard personal lines, and E&S.

在再保險方面，我們成功完成了 2024 年 7 月 1 日財產和傷亡超額損失條約的續簽，涵蓋標準商業險種、標準個人險種和 E&S。

Both treaties have substantially the same structure as the expiring treaties.

這兩個條約與即將到期的條約具有基本相同的結構。

Our casualty excess of loss treaty provides $88 million of protection above a $2 million retention for all our casualty business in line with the expiring treaty.

根據即將到期的條約，我們的傷亡超額損失條約為我們的所有傷亡業務提供 8800 萬美元的保護，超過 200 萬美元的保留。

Given the conditions in the casualty market, we retained a co-participation of 17.5% on the first layer of the treaty, which provides $3 million of coverage in excess of a $2 million retention.

考慮到傷亡市場的情況，我們在條約第一層保留了 17.5% 的共同參與權，提供了 300 萬美元的承保額，超過了 200 萬美元的保留額。

The remaining layers of the treaty were fully placed and consistent with the expiring program.

條約的其餘各層已完全落實並與即將到期的計劃保持一致。

For our property excess of loss treaty, we maintain the retention on the first layer at $5 million.

對於我們的財產超額損失條約，我們將第一層的保留額維持在 500 萬美元。

All attachment points and limits remain the same $65 million of coverage.

所有附著點和限額均保持 6500 萬美元的承保範圍不變。

Our capital position remains strong with GAAP equity of $2.9 billion and statutory surplus of $2.7 billion.

我們的資本狀況依然強勁，GAAP 股本為 29 億美元，法定盈餘為 27 億美元。

Book value and adjusted book value per share decreased by 1% from year end.

帳面價值及調整後每股帳面價值較年末下降1%。

At the end of the quarter, the debt-to-capital ratio was 14.8%, well below our internal threshold of 25%.

截至本季末，負債資本比率為 14.8%，遠低於我們 25% 的內部門門檻。

This ratio, together with our operating cash flows, provides us with the financial flexibility to support organic growth and execute our strategic initiatives.

這一比率與我們的營運現金流一起為我們提供了財務靈活性，以支持有機成長和執行我們的策略舉措。

We did not repurchase any shares during the quarter and had $84.2 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization.

本季我們沒有回購任何股票，我們的股票回購授權剩餘 8,420 萬美元。

Our results in the quarter are an earnings event, not a capital event.

我們本季的業績是獲利事件，而不是資本事件。

We are confident in our ongoing strategies and ability to execute.

我們對我們正在進行的戰略和執行能力充滿信心。

For 2024, we now expect our GAAP combined ratio to be 101.5%, up from our previous guidance of 96.5%.

對於 2024 年，我們目前預期 GAAP 綜合成本率為 101.5%，高於先前的指引值 96.5%。

The 5-point increase reflects the full-year impact of the adverse prior-year casualty reserve development, current accident year bookings in general liability, and the 0.5-point increase in our catastrophe loss assumption which is now 5.5 points.

5 個百分點的增長反映了上一年傷亡準備金不利發展、當前事故年度一般責任登記以及我們的巨災損失假設增加 0.5 個百分點（目前為 5.5 個百分點）對全年的影響。

Consistent with our typical process, we assume no additional prior-year casualty reserve development.

與我們的典型流程一致，我們假設上一年沒有額外的傷亡準備開發。

As previously mentioned, these increases are partially offset by a lower expense ratio.

如前所述，這些成長被較低的費用比率部分抵消。

Even with these updates, the underlying combined ratio of 91% highlights our strong forward earnings potential.

即使進行了這些更新，91% 的基本綜合成本率也凸顯了我們強大的遠期獲利潛力。

Our estimate for $360 million of after-tax net investment income, including $32 million from alternative investments, remains unchanged.

我們對稅後淨投資收入 3.6 億美元（包括來自另類投資的 3,200 萬美元）的預測保持不變。

Our guidance includes an overall effective tax rate of 21% with a 20.5% effective tax rate on investments and 21% on all other items.

我們的指引包括 21% 的整體有效稅率，其中投資有效稅率為 20.5%，所有其他項目有效稅率為 21%。

Fully diluted weighted average shares are estimated to be $61.5 million.

完全攤薄後的加權平均股票估計為 6,150 萬美元。

This does not reflect any assumptions for share repurchases we may make under our existing authorization.

這並不反映我們根據現有授權可能做出的任何股票回購假設。

Now I'll turn the call back to John.

現在我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Tony.

謝謝，托尼。

Our guidance implies an operating ROE in the high single digits for the full-year 2024, despite our reserving actions in the first and second quarters.

儘管我們在第一季和第二季採取了保留行動，但我們的指導意味著 2024 年全年的營運 ROE 將達到高個位數。

With our underlying combined ratio guidance of 91- and 5.5-point assumption for catastrophe losses, the gap to reach our 95% combined ratio target is manageable.

根據我們對巨災損失的 91 點和 5.5 點假設的基本綜合比率指導，達到 95% 綜合比率目標的差距是可控的。

Importantly, the 91% underlying combined ratio includes approximately 1.5 points of strengthening in the current accident year.

重要的是，91% 的基礎綜合成本率包括目前事故年度約 1.5 個百分點的強化。

We have strong momentum in our E&S business and profit improvement plans in personal lines.

我們的 E&S 業務和個人業務的利潤改善計劃勢頭強勁。

In standard commercial lines, our flagship segment, we have the tools and organizational muscle to effectively manage rate and retention, apply disciplined and prudent underwriting, and execute our strategy.

在標準商業產品線（我們的旗艦細分市場）中，我們擁有有效管理費率和保留率、採用嚴格且審慎的承保以及執行我們的策略的工具和組織力量。

Our actions position us well moving forward despite the uncertainty that exists in the external environment.

儘管外部環境存在不確定性，但我們的行動使我們能夠繼續前進。

I'll now ask the operator to open our question-and-answer session.

我現在請接線生開始我們的問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Phillips, Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）Mike Phillips，Oppenheimer。

John, first question is on the commercial renewal pricing and retention stuff there.

約翰，第一個問題是關於商業續約定價和保留的問題。

You're continuing to move that up, good news, but it feels like that's a bit different than what we're seeing from other commercial players.

你們正在繼續提升這一點，這是個好消息，但感覺這與我們從其他商業玩家那裡看到的有點不同。

I guess I want to see if you agree with that.

我想我想看看你是否同意這一點。

And then maybe just your confidence on the ability to continue to do so and impacts on retention and where that stands.

然後也許只是您對繼續這樣做的能力的信心以及對保留率和現狀的影響。

As we look out over the next couple of quarters, do you think that GL number you mentioned 76% or the commercial 79% continues to move up?

當我們展望未來幾季時，您認為您提到的 GL 數字 76% 或商業 79% 會繼續上升嗎？

So I think we feel pretty good about the direction of commercial lines pricing.

所以我認為我們對商業線路定價的方向感覺很好。

And honestly, while we might be a little bit ahead of the market, there's enough commentary out there and has been enough commentary out there about the direction of loss trends and therefore the need, particularly on the casualty side and GL more specifically for pricing to increase.

老實說，雖然我們可能有點領先於市場，但關於損失趨勢的方向以及因此的需求，特別是在傷亡方面和總帳（GL）方面，有足夠多的評論，特別是在定價方面增加。

And I think if you were to look back over the last couple of quarters against our public peer set and their commentary in their earnings calls, while they make statements and have made statements about where they think pricing is relative to loss trends for casualty, they also point to the need for pricing to go higher.

我認為，如果你回顧過去幾季我們的公眾同行群體以及他們在財報電話會議中的評論，當他們發表聲明並就他們認為定價與傷亡損失趨勢相關的情況發表聲明時，他們會發現還指出需要提高定價。

So I think these trends are being recognized.

所以我認為這些趨勢正在被認識。

I think they'll continue to be recognized.

我認為他們將繼續得到認可。

And while we might be an early mover with regard to the recent accident years and then moving on to update our current accident year, which we think is appropriate and prudent in light of these severity trends that continue to emerge, I think we will -- we do expect to see the industry also move, and therefore, I wouldn't expect a significant retention impact.

雖然我們可能是最近事故年份的先驅，然後繼續更新當前的事故年份，鑑於這些不斷出現的嚴重趨勢，我們認為這是適當和謹慎的，但我認為我們會——我們確實預計該行業也會發生變化，因此，我預計不會產生重大的保留影響。

Now that said, and you've seen this in our history, when we have conviction on pricing and where we think pricing needs to be, we respond to that conviction.

話雖如此，您已經在我們的歷史中看到了這一點，當我們對定價有信念並且我們認為定價需要時，我們就會對這種信念做出回應。

And if there is an impact to retention, that's a trade-off we think is appropriate in the current environment.

如果對保留有影響，我們認為在當前環境下這是適當的權衡。

I guess on the reserve issues, I guess maybe a two-part question here.

我想關於儲備金問題，我想這裡可能有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。

You moved up to 20 the current action here a bit, but have you seen -- have you seen much of what you described as 2023, have you seen much of that already for the 2024 accident year?

您將當前的行動稍微提高到了 20，但是您是否看到了 - 您是否看到了您所描述的 2023 年的大部分內容，您是否看到了 2024 年事故年的大部分內容？

And then what do you say to those that say, this recent accident year issues are a selective issue, their book of business is different, this is not going to be as widespread as maybe what John thinks?

那麼，對於那些說最近發生的事故年問題是選擇性問題的人，他們的業務有所不同，這不會像約翰認為的那樣普遍，您有何看法？

Yeah.

是的。

So there's a lot there in that question, Mike, and I appreciate it.

麥克，這個問題包含了很多內容，我很感激。

The first thing is with regards to the '24 accident year, it's extremely early.

第一件事是關於24年事故年，現在還非常早。

But if you react to the more recent years and recognize higher severity emergence in the more recent years, unless you want to back down in your forward trend assumption, it's prudent to adjust the current year.

但是，如果您對最近幾年做出反應並認識到最近幾年出現了更嚴重的情況，除非您想放棄對未來趨勢的假設，否則調整本年度是謹慎的做法。

So I would say the current year adjustment is almost entirely driven by the fact that we've moved our expected loss ratios for the '22 and '23 years higher and kept our severity trends assumption that we started the year with in place, which effectively pushes up our view of the current year.

因此，我想說，今年的調整幾乎完全是由以下事實驅動的：我們將 22 年和 23 年的預期損失率上調，並保持我們年初時的嚴重趨勢假設，這有效地推高了我們對今年的看法。

So I think that's that's the important point.

所以我認為這就是重點。

With regard to whether this is a selective specific issue or not, I think we feel pretty good based on this.

關於這是否是一個選擇性的具體問題，我認為基於此我們感覺還不錯。

And we reiterated this last quarter, our portfolio has been extremely stable from a mix of business perspective, industry verticals, hazard mix, limits profile, and when you look at our history, there's nothing to suggest that the book has changed in a manner that would present a meaningfully different frequency and severity profile.

我們在上個季度重申，從業務角度、垂直行業、風險組合、限額概況的角度來看，我們的投資組合非常穩定，當你查看我們的歷史時，沒有任何跡象表明這本書發生了以下變化：將呈現有意義的不同頻率和嚴重程度概況。

And I know some have called out certain jurisdictions and states as being more exposed.

我知道有些人指出某些司法管轄區和州的暴露程度較高。

And honestly, that list of states that have been bouncing around out there came out of my response to a question last quarter, and those were states that have been in our footprint and continue to be on our footprint and have historically been in our results.

老實說，這份一直在外面跳動的州名單是我上個季度對一個問題的回答，這些州已經在我們的足跡中，並將繼續在我們的足跡中，並且歷史上一直在我們的結果中。

What I didn't cite was the big states that are more challenging litigation environments that are not in our footprint in states like California, Texas, and Florida that are driving the vast majority of nuclear verdicts.

我沒有提到的是那些訴訟環境更具挑戰性的大州，這些州不在我們的足跡中，例如加利福尼亞州、德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州，這些州推動了絕大多數核裁決。

And therefore, you would expect that if you're driving the nuclear verdicts, those same cartridge are driving social inflationary trends and higher severity trends generally.

因此，你會期望，如果你推動核裁決，那麼同樣的彈藥筒也會推動社會通膨趨勢和更嚴重的趨勢。

So unfortunately, that single thread got kicked off as opposed to the broader commentary around how these trends are fairly widespread.

不幸的是，這個單一的線索被啟動了，而不是圍繞這些趨勢如何相當普遍的更廣泛的評論。

Listen, I think the fact that our book is a little bit heavier in GL than some of our peers will drive some of the impact.

聽著，我認為我們的書在 GL 方面比一些同行的書要重一點，這一事實將產生一些影響。

But generally speaking, if you write GL, other liability occurrence in particular in the liability portion of CMP for some companies, I think these trends are there, and I think they will manifest themselves in the coming years.

但一般來說，如果你寫GL，其他責任發生，特別是一些公司CMP的責任部分，我認為這些趨勢是存在的，而且我認為它們將在未來幾年顯現出來。

And our philosophy around reacting quickly when we see emerging potential adverse trends, that's what we're doing here.

當我們看到新出現的潛在不利趨勢時，我們的理念是迅速做出反應，而這就是我們在這裡所做的。

And in addition to the more recent accident years, we're taking action in the current year, which we think is the prudent approach.

除了最近幾年發生的事故外，我們還在今年採取行動，我們認為這是謹慎的做法。

But our strong underlying combined ratio starting point and our approach to pricing relative to our updated indications, we think, puts us in a good position to continue to be that steady, strong performer on a go-forward basis.

但我們認為，我們強勁的基礎綜合比率起點以及我們相對於最新指標的定價方法，使我們處於有利地位，可以繼續保持穩定、強勁的表現。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基 (Michael Zaremski)，BMO。

Maybe sticking with some of the reserving actions, maybe you can reflect on the 9% assumption, I believe, on loss trend.

也許堅持一些保留行動，也許你可以反思 9% 的假設，我相信，關於損失趨勢。

Is that for GL?

是給GL的嗎？

And then if you think back, and I'm not sure how long of a data thread you have, where -- how does a 9% compare to what you've seen?

然後，如果您回想一下，我不確定您的資料線程有多長，在哪裡 - 9% 與您所看到的相比如何？

I know, John, you've been obviously doing in the industry for decades, but is this a multi-standard deviation assumption, or has the industry seen this before decades ago?

我知道，約翰，你顯然已經在這個行業做了幾十年了，但這是一個多標準差假設，還是業界在幾十年前就已經看到了這一點？

I'm trying to get a sense of how severe your assumptions are relative to the historical data you have?

我想了解您的假設相對於您擁有的歷史數據有多嚴重？

Yeah, sure, Mike.

是的，當然，麥克。

So let me try to take that in pieces.

因此，讓我嘗試將其分解。

So the 9% we referenced is for GL, that was in the overall casualty of 8% and then 8.5% we had talked about excluding workers' comp.

因此，我們提到的 9% 是針對 GL 的，即總體傷亡人數的 8%，然後是我們談到的不包括工人補償的 8.5%。

So the 9% is GL specific, and as we said the beginning of the year, that didn't assume any frequency change.

因此，9% 是 GL 特定的，正如我們年初所說，沒有假設任何頻率變化。

So you could assume then that that 9% is entirely severity driven.

因此，您可以假設這 9% 完全是嚴重性驅動的。

But now, if you look back because obviously historical loss trends, actual historical loss trends influence how you think about forward loss trends.

但現在，如果您回顧過去，因為顯然歷史損失趨勢，實際歷史損失趨勢會影響您對遠期損失趨勢的看法。

And if you were to look back, and I think we've been as transparent as anybody in terms of our expected loss trends and we've been doing that for several years, if you look back over the last four or five accident years, let's just focus on the period that is in everybody's focus right now which is that '20 to '24 period, our expected loss trend over that time was about 4% in 2020, it's now at 9%.

如果你回顧過去，我認為我們在預期損失趨勢方面和任何人一樣透明，而且我們已經這樣做了好幾年，如果你回顧過去四五年的事故年份，讓我們只關注現在每個人都關注的時期，即「20 至24 年」時期，我們預期該時期的損失趨勢在2020 年約為4%，現在為9%。

But if you look on average from '20 through '23, our average expected loss trends was about 5% over that timeframe.

但如果你從 20 年到 23 年的平均值來看，我們在這段時間內的平均預期損失趨勢約為 5%。

Our current evaluation of those years, and I'm careful not to call it loss trend because technically it's not, but if you just think about what we're seeing in terms of average change in frequency and severity which gives you average loss cost change, what we've seen over that time period on an updated basis, I would say rather than the 5% we assumed on average, it's closer to 6.5%.

我們目前對這些年的評估，我很小心地不將其稱為損失趨勢，因為從技術上講它不是，但如果你只考慮我們在頻率和嚴重性方面看到的平均變化，這會給你平均損失成本變化，我們在這段時間內所看到的最新情況，我想說，它不是我們假設的平均 5%，而是更接近 6.5%。

And again, I think it's important to understand the pieces there, and you heard us refer to frequencies, that 6.5% is made up of frequency which has been running better by about 4%, give or take.

再說一遍，我認為理解其中的各個部分很重要，你聽到我們提到頻率，6.5% 是由運行得更好約 4% 的頻率組成的，無論是給予還是接受。

And then severity trends have been running closer to 10%.

然後嚴重趨勢一直接近 10%。

So you blend those two together against the 6.5%.

因此，您將這兩者混合在一起，以對抗 6.5%。

So when you look at that and then look at where we have 2024 at 9% with no assumed frequency drop, we think that we feel pretty good about that.

因此，當你看看這一點，然後再看看 2024 年我們的成長率為 9%（假設頻率沒有下降）時，我們認為我們對此感覺非常好。

But then also remember, you're taking that 9% now and applying it to a higher starting point because your base year is the last more recent accident years which have moved higher, you're applying that 9% forward trend to a higher starting point.

但也要記住，您現在採用9% 並將其應用到更高的起點，因為您的基準年是最近的事故年份，這些年份已經上升，您將9% 的前向趨勢應用到更高的起點觀點。

And that's how we pull the pieces together.

這就是我們將各個部分整合在一起的方式。

And we think that's reasonable and appropriate and in line with what the more recent years have been telling us.

我們認為這是合理和適當的，並且符合近年來告訴我們的情況。

With regard to history, the longer term history, Mike, I think this has been somewhat unprecedented in that the entire diagonal has been moving.

關於歷史，更長期的歷史，麥克，我認為這在某種程度上是前所未有的，因為整個對角線一直在移動。

All accident years and all evaluation periods have shown up a movement higher in terms of severity emergence.

所有事故年份和所有評估期間的嚴重程度都出現了更高的變化。

And again, I think it's just another data point to suggest that this is a more widespread industry phenomenon.

再說一次，我認為這只是另一個數據點，顯示這是一個更普遍的行業現象。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I guess for folks focusing on the outside like us focusing on the actions you've taken in GL this quarter and previous quarters, directionally, you can make the case that this is a kitchen sink type type quarter on GL, and that there's some cushion for loss trend to continue getting at the end, maybe a teeny bit worse, and say you wouldn't have to continue taking up the GL picks.

我想對於像我們這樣關注外部的人來說，關注你在本季度和前幾季在GL 中採取的行動，從方向上來說，你可以說這是GL 上的廚房水槽類型季度，並且有一些緩衝如果虧損趨勢在最後繼續惡化，也許會更糟，並且說你不必繼續選擇 GL 選秀權。

I don't know if you agree with that.

我不知道你是否同意這一點。

But on commercial auto, I guess, you could simply make the case that there still might not be a lot of cushion in commercial auto.

但在商用汽車上，我想，你可以簡單地說明商用汽車中仍然可能沒有太多緩衝。

I don't know if you can unpack why reserves haven't been added that -- I know they were but in a more meaningful way to commercial auto, maybe you can unpack what the loss trend is there and some other stats around why you feel commercial auto didn't need nearly as much as GL.

我不知道你是否可以解釋為什麼沒有添加儲備金——我知道它們是添加的，但以一種對商用汽車更有意義的方式，也許你可以解釋一下損失趨勢是什麼以及關於為什麼你的其他一些統計數據感覺商用車幾乎不需要GL那麼多。

Yeah.

是的。

So I think if you look at commercial auto for us in particular, you've actually seen some improvement over the last few years.

因此，我認為，如果您特別關注我們的商用汽車，您實際上會在過去幾年中看到一些改進。

And I would suggest that these higher severity trends that we're seeing right now in GL impacted commercial auto more quickly in large part because it's got a shorter tail to it.

我認為，我們現在在 GL 中看到的這些更嚴重的趨勢對商用汽車的影響更快，很大程度上是因為它的尾巴更短。

And I think the drop off in activity and therefore the frequency benefits that I talked about in GL weren't as evident in commercial auto.

我認為活動的下降以及我在 GL 中談到的頻率優勢在商用汽車中並不那麼明顯。

So I think it came through, and it was recognized more quickly in commercial auto.

所以我認為它成功了，並且在商用汽車領域更快地得到了認可。

But the other important point is the pricing.

但另一個重要的點是定價。

The renewal pricing in commercial auto has been elevated for an extended period of time.

商用車的續保價格已經長期上漲。

We've been in the 8% to 10%, now 10.5% range for about five maybe more years.

我們一直處於 8% 到 10% 的水平，現在是 10.5% 的水平，大約五年了，甚至更多年了。

So you've got a lot more earn rate coming through to offset that loss trend, and I think that's the piece that many have seen to be missing on the GL side is, when you look at GL rate and say -- forget about umbrella because umbrella is a different animal, but the GL rate, which has been running in, call it, 4% to 6% range industry-wide and for us as well, it's probably short of where these updated trends are coming in.

因此，你有更多的收益率來抵消這種損失趨勢，我認為這是許多人認為總帳方面缺少的部分，當你查看總帳利率並說——忘記保護傘時因為雨傘是一種不同的動物，但整個產業的GL 率一直在4% 到6% 範圍內，對我們來說，它可能還達不到這些最新趨勢的水平。

And that's why I really wanted to take a close look at the '19 and prior periods for both auto and GL and where the current bookings are for '21 through 23, then overlay updated views of loss trends and overlay actual price increases to make sure that all holds together.

這就是為什麼我真的想仔細研究 19 年及之前的汽車和 GL 期間以及當前預訂量為 21 至 23 年的原因，然後覆蓋損失趨勢的更新視圖並覆蓋實際價格上漲，以確保這一切都結合在一起。

And when I think you do -- if you do that analysis for us, then I think you're going to feel pretty good.

當我認為你這樣做時——如果你為我們做這樣的分析，那麼我認為你會感覺很好。

Got it.

知道了。

That is helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then I'll sneak one last one in sticking on this topic.

然後我會偷偷地講最後一篇，繼續討論這個主題。

Is there anything you can help us appreciate about and why that consistent additions quarter over quarter for the more recent quarters to the reserves?

您有什麼可以幫助我們了解以及為什麼最近幾季儲備金逐季持續增加的原因嗎？

Is the process just simply that there's just such a big book of reserves as new data coming in every day that you need to take smaller bites at the apple just to really get to where you could be?

這個過程是否只是簡單地說，隨著每天都有新數據進來，儲備量如此之大，以至於你需要小口咬蘋果才能真正到達你能達到的目標？

Or just maybe you can help unpack, or was there just so much new data this quarter that was so much meaningfully worse than you saw last quarter in quarter four?

或者只是也許您可以幫助解開，或者本季度是否有太多新數據比您在第四季度看到的上一季要糟糕得多？

Anything there would help.

那裡的任何事情都會有所幫助。

I guess the first thing I would say and just to reinforce the point, the three quarters, so the first reaction was the '20 and prior years and largely '19 and prior at the end of last year.

我想我要說的第一件事只是為了強調這一點，即三個季度，所以第一個反應是 20 世紀及之前的幾年，主要是去年年底的 19 世紀及之前。

So it's really the last two quarters we're talking about with regard to the more recent accident years.

因此，我們實際上正在談論最近兩個季度的事故。

And I think we've always reacted to the emergence that we see in the quarter.

我認為我們總是對本季看到的出現的情況做出反應。

So we're not just working off of actual versus expected claim activity, we're doing a full review on a line-by-line basis as we've always done, and that continues to be our process.

因此，我們不僅僅是根據實際索賠活動與預期索賠活動進行比較，我們還像往常一樣逐行進行全面審查，這仍然是我們的流程。

I think the difference and you heard the reference to it in our commentary that in addition to the emergence in the quarter, also contemplating some additional risks associated with some potential continuation of these trends.

我認為差異，您在我們的評論中聽到了對它的提及，除了本季度的出現之外，還考慮了與這些趨勢的一些潛在延續相關的一些額外風險。

That was really the difference which is after seeing the more recent accident years emerge worse than expected in two consecutive quarters, we thought it made sense to react a little bit more as a result of that.

這確實是一個區別，在看到最近幾年的事故連續兩個季度比預期更嚴重之後，我們認為因此做出更多反應是有意義的。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

I was hoping you could touch a little bit more on the workers' comp business and maybe things that have historically been a bit of an offset from a reserve perspective.

我希望你能多談談工人補償業務，也許歷史上從儲備金角度來看有些抵銷的事情。

And should we be thinking about that as merely a pricing function that we see less development out there, or are there underlying trends that we should be aware of as well?

我們是否應該將其視為僅僅是定價功能，我們看到的發展較少，或者是否存在我們也應該意識到的潛在趨勢？

So first thing is, I would just highlight our workers' comp continues to produce strong results, and I think that's evident in our reports here.

首先，我想強調我們的工人薪酬持續產生強勁的成果，我認為這在我們的報告中很明顯。

Workers' comp has become a smaller portion of our reserve inventory over the last several years as that market has become hypercompetitive from a pricing and agency commission perspective, we have not been as competitive in most cases by design.

在過去的幾年裡，工人補償已成為我們儲備庫存的一小部分，因為從定價和代理佣金的角度來看，該市場已變得競爭激烈，但在大多數情況下，我們在設計上並沒有那麼具有競爭力。

With regard to what's happening from an emergence perspective, in addition to it being a smaller portion, I think what we've seen and pointed to of late is a leveling off of very favorable frequency trends that have persisted for an extended period of time.

關於從出現的角度來看正在發生的事情，除了較小的一部分之外，我認為我們最近看到並指出的是已經持續了很長一段時間的非常有利的頻率趨勢趨於平穩。

And I think everybody anticipated that at some point, frequencies would find a new level.

我想每個人都預計在某個時候頻率會達到一個新的水平。

And while it might change and it could move around from quarter to quarter, we've seen what I would describe as a leveling off in frequency trends.

雖然它可能會發生變化，並且可能會隨著季度的變化而變化，但我們已經看到了我所說的頻率趨勢趨於平穩。

The other point to keep in mind is while economic or medical inflation relative to overall economic inflation has been pretty muted, you started to see that reverse in the more recent CPI for instance, and you've heard us talk about this before.

另一點需要記住的是，雖然經濟或醫療通膨相對於整體經濟通膨相當溫和，但你開始在最近的消費者物價指數中看到這種逆轉，而且你之前已經聽過我們談論過這一點。

When you look at the component parts of medical CPI that drive workers' comp loss cost, it's about 90% physician services and hospital services and then about 10% pharma and medical equipment.

當你觀察醫療 CPI 中推動工人補償損失成本的組成部分時，你會發現大約 90% 是醫生服務和醫院服務，然後是大約 10% 的製藥和醫療設備。

And in the more recent prints, that blended basket has been in the 4.5% or so range, 4.5% range, and wages are now at about 4%.

在最近的印刷品中，混合籃子一直在 4.5% 左右，4.5% 範圍內，工資現在約為 4%。

So what was a favorable gap with regard to the medical component of a lost dollar has flipped, albeit slightly.

因此，美元損失的醫療部分的有利缺口已經發生了逆轉，儘管幅度很小。

And again, that could change.

再說一遍，這可能會改變。

But I think both of those those dynamics in a negative rate environment just give us a little bit more of a conservative outlook in terms of how we think that line will emerge going forward.

但我認為，負利率環境下的這兩種動態只會讓我們對這條線未來將如何出現更加保守。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Getting a question this morning a little bit about the capital ratio, you have always historically been quite well-capitalized, but you've typically had more operating leverage premiums to surplus and you're growing fairly much and then also you have very low debt leverage.

今天早上有人問一個關於資本比率的問題，從歷史上看，你的資本一直相當充足，但你通常有更多的營運槓桿溢價超過盈餘，而且你的增長相當快，而且你的債務也非常低槓桿作用。

Given where the premiums to surplus is going where the premiums are, does that suggest that you may raise a little debt and push the capital down into the subsidiary, or is it fairly self-funding?

考慮到盈餘溢價的去向，這是否表明您可以籌集少量債務並將資本推入子公司，或者是否可以自籌資金？

Yeah, I think, Paul, the operating leverage ratio targets that we talk about and we certainly believe in, we also recognize that there are times where you might run outside of those those targets mostly because we need to look at the overall capital position of the organization.

是的，我認為，保羅，我們談論的營運槓桿率目標，我們當然相信，我們也認識到，有時你可能會超出這些目標，主要是因為我們需要考慮整體資本狀況該組織。

Those ratios are calculated based on statutory capital and don't account for the additional capital assist at the holdco.

這些比率是根據法定資本計算的，並未考慮控股公司的額外資本援助。

But when we think about where the growth is coming from and the fact that a lot of the growth is driven by price and exposure change and knowing a strong capital position overall and the flexibility of having some of that capital sitting at the holding company is kind of our desirable position.

但是，當我們考慮成長來自何處以及許多成長是由價格和風險敞口變化驅動的事實時，並且了解整體強勁的資本狀況以及將部分資本保留在控股公司的靈活性是很好的我們理想的位置。

So we'll always evaluate the capital positions and the options that are available in the capital markets.

因此，我們將始終評估資本部位和資本市場上可用的選擇。

Our debt to cap at just under 15% is well below the threshold that we're comfortable operating.

我們的債務上限略低於 15%，遠低於我們舒適營運的門檻。

So depending on prospects for profitable growth and where the debt market is on, we would evaluate those and do what was most appropriate at the time.

因此，根據獲利成長的前景和債務市場的狀況，我們將對其進行評估並採取當時最合適的做法。

Great.

偉大的。

So that's suggesting from a new business perspective, there's no constraints.

因此，從新的業務角度來看，這表明沒有任何限制。

Grace Carter, Bank of America.

格蕾絲·卡特，美國銀行。

I guess since you all have already talked about how you tend to do extensive quarterly reserve reviews, I was just wondering if there's any tweaks that you're going to be making to the process going forward.

我想既然你們都已經討論過如何進行廣泛的季度儲備審查，我只是想知道你們是否會對未來的流程進行任何調整。

And just given the recent adverse development, if maybe temporarily you would be doing some additional additional work on a quarterly basis or if there's just anything that you think over a longer time period might make sense to implement on top of everything that you've already been doing.

考慮到最近的不利發展，如果您可能暫時每季度做一些額外的額外工作，或者您認為在較長一段時間內可能有意義的任何事情可以在您已經完成的所有事情之上實施一直在做。

And I guess, just obviously today, the environment is quite challenging, but if at some point in the future you start to see good news emerging, I'm wondering if you would be maybe more hesitant to acknowledge that after this experience relative to history, if there's just any sort of impact on how quickly you might acknowledge good news relative to the past after the past couple of quarters.

我想，很明顯，今天的環境相當具有挑戰性，但如果在未來的某個時候你開始看到好消息出現，我想知道在經歷了這次相對於歷史的經歷之後，你是否會更猶豫地承認這一點，是否對過去幾季後您確認相對於過去的好消息的速度有任何影響。

I guess what I would say overall is, our carried reserve position is always established in the context of the risk factors that we see currently and in the future.

我想我總體上要說的是，我們的持有準備金頭寸始終是在我們當前和未來看到的風險因素的背景下建立的。

And those risk factors shift over time.

這些風險因素會隨著時間的推移而改變。

And as a result of that, our view of the carry reserve position relative to the actuarial indication or actuarial best estimate will always flex based on that.

因此，我們對套利準備金頭寸相對於精算指示或精算最佳估計的看法將始終基於此而變化。

That has always been our philosophy and, I would say, continues to be our philosophy on a go-forward basis.

這一直是我們的理念，我想說，這仍然是我們不斷前進的理念。

We've had a very consistent and robust approach to quarterly reserving reviews that within that that process, as the actuarial discipline continues to enhance and find new and different approaches to provide additional insights, we have always taken advantage of those.

我們對季度保留審查採取了非常一致和穩健的方法，在該過程中，隨著精算學科的不斷增強並尋找新的和不同的方法來提供額外的見解，我們一直在利用這些方法。

And I know from my own career here, the additional insights that we get as part of the traditional actuarial method outputs on a by line of business basis have continued to be enhanced, and that will continue to be the case going forward.

從我自己的職業生涯中我知道，作為傳統精算方法輸出的一部分，我們在按業務線的基礎上獲得的額外見解不斷得到增強，而且未來的情況也將繼續如此。

But your broader question about reacting to good or bad news, I think we've had a very consistent approach there, and it always has to be evaluated in the context of the risk factors in the moment and the risk factors that you see down the road to determine what your carrying position should be relative to the best estimate or the indication.

但是，關於對好消息或壞消息做出反應的更廣泛問題，我認為我們在這方面採取了非常一致的方法，並且始終必須根據當前的風險因素以及您在未來看到的風險因素來評估它。

And obviously, it has been a challenging social inflationary environment here lately.

顯然，最近這裡的社會通膨環境充滿挑戰。

But I guess if we look at the E&S book has continued to perform quite well.

但我想，如果我們看看《E&S》這本書，它的表現仍然相當不錯。

And I was just wondering if you would kind of attribute the, I guess, the performance there relative to some of the challenges emerging to a greater extent in standard commercial solely to the freedom of rate and form, or if there's any sort of differences in the makeup of that book otherwise across industries, geographies, anything that we should consider?

我只是想知道，我想，您是否會將與標準商業廣告中在更大程度上出現的一些挑戰相關的表現完全歸因於速率和形式的自由，或者是否存在任何差異那本書的構成是否跨產業、跨地域，我們該考慮什麼？

And I guess going forward, if given the greater freedom on the non-admitted side, if you're considering maybe pushing casualty growth to a greater extent there relative to the standard commercial lines where it has historically been the bulk of your exposures?

我想，展望未來，如果給予非准入方面更大的自由，您是否正在考慮相對於標準商業線路（歷史上一直是您的大部分風險敞口），更大程度地推動傷亡人數增長？

Yeah, no, great question.

是的，不，很好的問題。

Let me answer the second part first.

我先回答第二部分。

With regard to the business moving from admitted to non-admitted, that will always be more of a market dynamic driven shift because it's going to depend on whether there are other admitted markets or retail agency is always going to look to place its customers in an admitted product if they can.

關於業務從獲準進入到非准入的轉變，這始終更多地是市場動態驅動的轉變，因為這將取決於是否有其他獲準市場或零售機構總是希望將其客戶置於一個特定的市場中。

So you would need a broader market move for that shift to happen.

因此，你需要更廣泛的市場波動才能實現這種轉變。

But we like our position in the E&S market, and we continue to see strong growth opportunities there, some of which is business migrating out of admitted into non-admitted.

但我們喜歡我們在 E&S 市場的地位，我們繼續看到那裡強勁的成長機會，其中一些業務從准入許可轉移到非准入許可。

With regard to the first part of your question with regard to reserving trends or loss trends in E&S, I would say the same trends with regard to increasing severities on GL exist in E&S that exist in standard commercial.

關於您問題的第一部分，即 E&S 中的保留趨勢或損失趨勢，我想說，E&S 中存在與標準商業中存在的關於 GL 嚴重性增加的相同趨勢。

With regard to what we're seeing in our particular book, though, I would say a couple of things.

不過，關於我們在這本書中看到的內容，我想說幾件事。

The frequency trend, which has been favorable on standard commercial, has actually been more pronounced in our E&S book in part because that book turns over at a more rapid clip.

頻率趨勢在標準商業廣告中是有利的，實際上在我們的 E&S 書中更為明顯，部分原因是該書的翻閱速度更快。

So you do see more movement from an underwriting perspective that has actually brought about a more pronounced frequency improvement.

因此，從承保的角度來看，您確實看到了更多的變化，這實際上帶來了更明顯的頻率改善。

We've also traditionally assumed higher severities in our expected loss ratios for the more recent accident years, and that frequency benefit has allowed us to build more into our assumed severity.

傳統上，我們也假設最近事故年份的預期損失率具有更高的嚴重性，而這種頻率優勢使我們能夠在假設的嚴重性中建立更多的基礎。

And then a final one, I think probably equally important point, is the pricing, the renewal pricing and new business pricing for that matter in E&S casualty has been a lot stronger for a lot longer than it is in -- or has been in admitted other liability or general liability.

最後一點，我認為可能同樣重要的一點是，E&S 傷亡事故的定價、續約定價和新業務定價在很長一段時間內都比現在或已經承認的情況要強得多。

And I think all of those factors have resulted in a more muted impact with regard to emergence for E&S.

我認為所有這些因素都對 E&S 的出現產生了更溫和的影響。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Heleniak，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Just wondering if you could talk about if you feel like you need any repositioning actions if you expect to see any of those in 2024 and 2025?

只是想知道如果您希望在 2024 年和 2025 年看到其中任何一個，您是否可以談談您是否覺得需要任何重新定位行動？

And do you expect the last couple of quarters, I guess what has happened and the impact in your growth plans on the commercial lines side, if you can talk about those two?

您預計過去幾季發生了什麼以及您的成長計畫對商業線的影響嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So repositioning, if you're talking about the underwriting portfolio, I would say, no dramatic repositioning.

所以重新定位，如果你談論的是承保投資組合，我會說，沒有戲劇性的重新定位。

As I mentioned earlier, I believe this is largely a pricing-driven issue from our perspective as opposed to wholesale shifts in our underwriting portfolio.

正如我之前提到的，我認為從我們的角度來看，這很大程度上是一個定價驅動的問題，而不是我們承保投資組合的大規模轉變。

That's my high-level comment with regard to how we're responding to this.

這是我對我們如何應對這一問題的高級評論。

I'm sorry, just give me the other part of the question again, Scott?

抱歉，請再告訴我問題的另一部分，史考特？

The other part of the question is, does this impact any of your growth plans on the commercial line side or just the admitted market side?

問題的另一部分是，這是否會影響您在商業線方面的任何成長計劃或僅影響公認的市場方面？

So I would say that's more of a question of how our pricing stance might be either in line with or different from the market broadly.

所以我想說，這更多的是我們的定價立場如何與市場整體一致或不同的問題。

And again, I want to reinforce the point that we've made on multiple occasions here which is, our run rate profitability for standard commercial, and if you look at the current accident year excluding the impact of adverse development, call it somewhere in the 96.5% range.

再次，我想強調我們在這裡多次提出的觀點，即我們標準商業的運行率盈利能力，如果您查看當前的事故年，排除不利發展的影響，請將其稱為96.5%範圍。

Well, let's call it at 96% to 97% kind of run rate combined ratio for standard commercial, the gap to 95% in the context of the loss trends we've talked about is not so significant that it's going to result in us being very disruptive in terms of a shift in our pricing strategy.

好吧，我們將其稱為標準商業營運率 96% 至 97% 的運行率綜合比率，在我們討論過的損失趨勢的背景下，與 95% 的差距並沒有那麼大，以至於它會導致我們我們定價策略的轉變非常具有破壞性。

So I would not -- while it certainly might impact growth a little bit, it's not a dramatic move in terms of where we are to where we need to be from an underwriting perspective.

所以我不會——雖然這肯定會對成長產生一點影響，但從承保的角度來看，這並不是一個戲劇性的轉變。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then on the rate improvement that you expect in the second half of the year, how much more rate do you think you need on GL and commercial auto and some of the areas where you feel like you need rate?

然後，關於您預計下半年的費率改善，您認為GL和商用車以及您認為需要費率的一些領域需要提高多少費率？

Is it is it just a few more points, or is it more significant than that to get where you need to be at least for the next couple of quarters?

只是多拿幾分，還是比至少在接下來的幾季達到目標更重要？

Yeah.

是的。

So again, I think and I know you know the math well enough, if you look at where we have loss trends.

再說一次，我想，如果你看看我們的損失趨勢，我知道你足夠了解數學。

And I know we spent a lot of time focusing on GL at 9%, but our all aim loss ratio because you have to throw in the property at 4%, our all-in loss trend rather continues to be in that 7% range.

我知道我們花了很多時間關注 9% 的 GL，但我們的全部目標損失率，因為你必須將財產投入 4%，我們的全部損失趨勢反而繼續在 7% 的範圍內。

And you want to look at all of these lines together.

你想把所有這些線放在一起看。

I don't want to lose sight of the fact that we're getting 12.5 points of rate on property against a much lower trend, so you've got directional movement in property which should be favorable.

我不想忽視這樣一個事實，即我們的房地產利率在低得多的趨勢下獲得了 12.5 個點，因此房地產的定向運動應該是有利的。

You've got commercial auto still running at about a 10.5% rate.

商用汽車仍以 10.5% 左右的速度運行。

And we've mentioned on several occasions what our assumed casualty loss trends are, and you've got GL moving higher against that loss trend, but you're all-in starting point is relatively close to your target, our target combined ratio.

我們曾多次提到我們假設的傷亡損失趨勢是什麼，並且您的總帳相對於該損失趨勢而上升，​​但您的全部起點相對接近您的目標，即我們的目標綜合比率。

So I think all of those pieces when you put them together, look at the starting point from a profitability perspective, look at our forward trend assumptions at 7% and our run rate pricing across all lines, and I think we're in a really good spot.

因此，我認為當你把所有這些部分放在一起時，從盈利能力的角度來看起點，看看我們7% 的未來趨勢假設以及我們所有產品線的運行率定價，我認為我們確實處於一個真正的困境中。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基 (Michael Zaremski)，BMO。

Curious on the catastrophe side component of loss trend on the property side, Selective over the years has been one of the few willing to also give guidance.

對房地產方面損失趨勢的災難方面部分感到好奇，選擇性多年來一直是少數願意提供指導的公司之一。

So it feels like Selective has been assuming a higher catastrophe trend as well over time, although I can't -- sometimes there's property losses within the loss ratio attritional, but any thoughts on the industry also kind of going to need to move up their catastrophe load, or Selective give guidance over time given the weather trends?

因此，感覺隨著時間的推移，選擇性也一直在假設更高的災難趨勢，儘管我不能——有時損失率內會出現財產損失，但對該行業的任何想法也都需要提高他們的水平。災難負荷，還是根據天氣趨勢選擇性地提供一段時間內的指導？

Yeah, we always look at a blend of model output and recent experience, recent and longer-term experience and when we set ours at 5%.

是的，我們總是會綜合考慮模型輸出和近期經驗、近期和長期經驗以及何時將其設定為 5%。

And remember that has been drifting up, it was about 3.5% just a few years ago and at 5%, that was kind of right in the middle of our 5- and 10-year averages and in line with the model output, we evaluate that on a regular basis.

請記住，這一數字一直在上升，幾年前約為 3.5%，現在為 5%，正好處於我們 5 年和 10 年平均水平的中間，並且與模型輸出一致，我們評估定期進行。

I think for us, it's more of a personal lines issue where that drift higher has been happening more significantly.

我認為對我們來說，這更多的是個人線路問題，這種漂移發生得更明顯。

If you look at -- so even this year, three to six months, in an elevated cat environment, our commercial lines cat ratio was 5.3 points, which is maybe 30 basis points above our expected for that segment of business.

如果你看一下——即使今年三到六個月，在較高的巨災環境下，我們的商業線路巨災比率也為5.3 個點，這可能比我們對該業務領域的預期高出30 個基點。

So I think those have held pretty well.

所以我認為這些都保持得很好。

But I think there's clearly based on the severe convective storm activity that we've been seeing on a pretty consistent basis, it seems to be a bigger issue on the homeowner side in particular within personal lines.

但我認為，顯然基於我們在相當一致的基礎上看到的嚴重對流風暴活動，這似乎是房主方面的一個更大的問題，特別是在個人方面。

And my sense is that's where you're going to continue to see upward pressure on expected cat loads.

我的感覺是，預計貓咪負載量將繼續面臨上升壓力。

Okay.

好的。

That's all I had.

這就是我所擁有的一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to John for closing remarks.

現在，我想將會議轉回約翰致閉幕詞。

Well, thank you all for joining us.

好的，謝謝大家加入我們。

And again, we appreciate you joining on very short notice.

再次感謝您在短時間內加入。

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to Brad.

一如既往，如果您有任何疑問，請隨時聯繫 Brad。

Thank you, and we'll talk to you soon.

謝謝您，我們很快就會與您聯絡。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。