Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2022 Steve Madden, Ltd. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Danielle McCoy. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度 Steve Madden, Ltd. 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者 Danielle McCoy。請繼續。

Thanks, Bella, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2022 earnings call and webcast. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our press release issued earlier today and filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

謝謝，貝拉，大家早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議和網絡直播。在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們隨後的評論（包括對您的問題的回答）包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果大不相同的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中描述的事項以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務，如果有的話，這些前瞻性陳述可能要等到我們的下一個季度財報電話會議才會更新。

The financial results discussed on today's call are on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release. Joining me today on the call is Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Zine Mazouzi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

除非另有說明，否則今天電話會議上討論的財務結果是經過調整的。我們的收益發布中包含與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Ed Rosenfeld 和首席財務官 Zine Mazouzi。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ed。

Thanks, Danielle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Steve Madden's third quarter 2022 results. We delivered solid results in the third quarter despite the challenging environment, with revenue increasing 5% and earnings in line with expectations. While macro pressures increased during the quarter, consumer demand for our brands and our products remains healthy, and our team remains steadfast in its focus on executing our strategy for long-term value creation.

謝謝，丹妮爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們，回顧史蒂夫·馬登 2022 年第三季度的業績。儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們在第三季度取得了穩健的業績，收入增長了 5%，收益符合預期。儘管本季度宏觀壓力增加，但消費者對我們的品牌和產品的需求仍然健康，我們的團隊仍然堅定不移地專注於執行我們的長期價值創造戰略。

First and foremost, our top priority, as always, is creating trend-right product assortments and getting them to market ahead of the competition. Historically, our consistent success in this regard has been driven by our proven formula, which combines our talented design teams led by Steve with our test and react strategy and industry-leading speed-to-market capabilities. Over the last 1.5 years, our product teams have done an outstanding job of developing on-trend merchandise assortments that have resonated with consumers. But they've had to do this while working much further in advance as supply chain disruption has extended lead times and limited our ability to test and react in season. Now we are seeing significant improvement in transit times, positioning us to get back to what we do best in 2023.

首先，我們一如既往的首要任務是創造符合潮流的產品組合，並在競爭中領先於市場。從歷史上看，我們在這方面的持續成功是由我們經過驗證的公式推動的，該公式將史蒂夫領導的才華橫溢的設計團隊與我們的測試和反應戰略以及行業領先的上市速度相結合。在過去的 1.5 年中，我們的產品團隊在開發引起消費者共鳴的流行商品分類方面做得非常出色。但由於供應鏈中斷延長了交貨時間並限制了我們在季節進行測試和反應的能力，因此他們必須在進一步提前工作的同時做到這一點。現在，我們看到運輸時間有了顯著改善，使我們能夠在 2023 年回到我們最擅長的領域。

This restores a critical competitive advantage for us, particularly in an uncertain environment where our wholesale customers will be looking to place fewer orders upfront and chase more in season. We also continue to support our brands and products with increased investment in marketing and consumer engagement. An important part of our strategy is connecting our brands to culture through associations with celebrities and influencers that are relevant to our core consumers. Last month, for example, we launched a global brand campaign called MADDENWOOD, which featured Bella Poarch, a singer and social media creator with over 92 million followers on TikTok; Latto, a rapper and winner of the Best New Artist Award at the 2022 BET Awards; and Cloe Cherry, an actress from the cast of hit TV show, Euphoria.

這為我們恢復了關鍵的競爭優勢，特別是在不確定的環境中，我們的批發客戶將尋求減少前期訂單並在旺季追逐更多訂單。我們還繼續通過增加對營銷和消費者參與的投資來支持我們的品牌和產品。我們戰略的一個重要部分是通過與與我們的核心消費者相關的名人和影響者建立聯繫，將我們的品牌與文化聯繫起來。例如，上個月，我們發起了一項名為 MADDENWOOD 的全球品牌活動，其中包括在 TikTok 上擁有超過 9200 萬粉絲的歌手和社交媒體創作者 Bella Poarch； Latto，說唱歌手，2022 BET Awards 最佳新人獎獲得者；和 Cloe Cherry，一位來自熱門電視節目 Euphoria 的演員。

By combining outstanding product with effective marketing, we are creating deeper connections with our consumers, which in turn is enabling our success with our 4 key business drivers, the first of which is driving our direct-to-consumer business, led by digital. While DTC revenue in the third quarter declined modestly compared to the prior year, if we compare to the third quarter of 2019, DTC revenue increased 56%, including 178% growth in ecommerce, demonstrating the exceptional progress we've made in this business since the pre-COVID period.

通過將出色的產品與有效的營銷相結合，我們正在與消費者建立更深層次的聯繫，這反過來又使我們能夠通過我們的 4 個關鍵業務驅動力取得成功，其中第一個是推動我們以數字為主導的直接面向消費者的業務。儘管第三季度的 DTC 收入與去年同期相比略有下降，但如果我們與 2019 年第三季度相比，DTC 收入增長了 56%，其中電子商務增長了 178%，這表明我們自此以來在該業務中取得了非凡的進步COVID 之前的時期。

Our second key business driver is expanding our business outside of footwear, where we are focused on our largest nonfootwear category of handbags as well as our emerging apparel business. In handbags, our Steve Madden business, which has more than doubled over the last 5 years, continued its strong momentum in the third quarter with a 19% revenue gain compared to the prior year. In apparel, revenue grew 52% as we successfully transitioned from the BB Dakota Steve Madden co-branded label to the Steve Madden brand for the fall season.

我們的第二個主要業務驅動力是將我們的業務擴展到鞋類之外，我們專注於我們最大的非鞋類手袋以及新興的服裝業務。在手袋方面，我們的 Steve Madden 業務在過去 5 年中增長了一倍多，第三季度繼續保持強勁勢頭，收入比去年同期增長 19%。在服裝方面，隨著我們在秋季成功從 BB Dakota Steve Madden 聯名品牌過渡到 Steve Madden 品牌，收入增長了 52%。

Our third key driver is expanding our international business. International has been the fastest-growing part of our business over the last few years, and we believe it represents our largest long-term growth opportunity going forward. Our outstanding momentum in international markets continued in the third quarter as international revenue grew more than 50% from the prior year period for the fourth consecutive quarter.

我們的第三個關鍵驅動力是擴大我們的國際業務。在過去幾年中，國際業務一直是我們業務中增長最快的部分，我們相信它代表了我們未來最大的長期增長機會。我們在國際市場的強勁勢頭在第三季度繼續保持，因為國際收入連續第四個季度同比增長超過 50%。

Finally, our fourth key driver is strengthening the U.S. wholesale footwear business that remains the core of our business. In the third quarter, U.S. wholesale footwear revenue increased 3% over last year. Revenue in our branded business grew more than 20%, led by strong gains in Steve Madden and Dolce Vita. This was partially offset by a significant decline in private label.

最後，我們的第四個關鍵驅動力是加強美國鞋類批發業務，這仍然是我們業務的核心。第三季度，美國鞋類批發收入同比增長 3%。在 Steve Madden 和 Dolce Vita 的強勁增長帶動下，我們品牌業務的收入增長了 20% 以上。這部分被自有品牌的大幅下降所抵消。

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our market-leading positioning and long-term prospects in this channel. But in the near term, many of our wholesale customers have pulled back on orders as they prioritize inventory control, and we have adjusted our overall fiscal 2022 outlook accordingly, which Zine will go into in further detail in a little bit.

展望未來，我們對我們在該渠道的市場領先定位和長期前景充滿信心。但在短期內，我們的許多批發客戶已經撤回了訂單，因為他們優先考慮庫存控制，我們也相應地調整了 2022 財年的整體前景，Zine 將進一步詳細介紹。

As we execute all of these initiatives, we also embrace the opportunity and the responsibility we have to create positive change for our people, planet and communities. And as such, seek to embed corporate social responsibility and sustainability in everything we do. In the third quarter, we published our 2021 Sustainability Report, which outlines our Let's Get Real sustainability strategy and our company's approach to critical issues including climate change, diversity and inclusion, and post-consumer waste management. You can find the report on the sustainability section of stevemadden.com, and I encourage you all to check it out.

在我們執行所有這些舉措的同時，我們也抓住了為我們的人民、地球和社區創造積極變化的機會和責任。因此，尋求將企業社會責任和可持續性融入我們所做的一切。在第三季度，我們發布了 2021 年可持續發展報告，其中概述了我們的 Let's Get Real 可持續發展戰略以及我們公司應對氣候變化、多樣性和包容性以及消費後廢物管理等關鍵問題的方法。您可以在 stevemadden.com 的可持續發展部分找到該報告，我鼓勵大家去看看。

Overall, we are confident in our strategy and pleased with the progress we are making on our key priorities despite the increasingly challenging environment. While we expect the macroeconomic backdrop to remain unpredictable in the coming quarters, we believe we are well positioned due to our strong brands, agile business model and proven ability to navigate difficult market conditions. Looking out further, we are confident that our unique competitive advantages will enable us to drive sustainable growth and value creation over the long term. With that, I'll turn it over to Zine to review our third quarter financial results in more detail and provide our updated outlook for the year.

總體而言，儘管環境越來越具有挑戰性，我們對我們的戰略充滿信心，並對我們在關鍵優先事項上取得的進展感到滿意。雖然我們預計未來幾個季度宏觀經濟背景仍將難以預測，但我們相信，由於我們強大的品牌、靈活的商業模式和經證實的駕馭困難市場條件的能力，我們處於有利地位。展望未來，我們有信心，我們獨特的競爭優勢將使我們能夠長期推動可持續增長和價值創造。有了這個，我將把它交給 Zine 來更詳細地審查我們第三季度的財務業績，並提供我們最新的年度展望。

Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. Our consolidated revenue in the third quarter was $556.6 million, a 5.3% increase compared to 2021. Our wholesale revenue was $434.6 million, up 8.1% compared to the prior year. Wholesale Footwear revenue was $330.8 million, an 8.7% increase from 2021 driven by strong growth in the branded business in both domestic and international markets, led by our largest brand, Steve Madden and Dolce Vita. This was partially offset by a decline in private label as our mass merchant customers have pulled back on orders as they seek to reduce overall inventory levels.

謝謝，Ed，大家早上好。我們第三季度的綜合收入為 5.566 億美元，比 2021 年增長 5.3%。我們的批發收入為 4.346 億美元，比去年同期增長 8.1%。鞋類批發收入為 3.308 億美元，比 2021 年增長 8.7%，這得益於我們最大的品牌 Steve Madden 和 Dolce Vita 在國內和國際市場的品牌業務強勁增長。這部分被自有品牌的下降所抵消，因為我們的大宗商家客戶在尋求降低整體庫存水平時撤回了訂單。

Wholesale accessories and apparel revenue was $103.9 million, up 6.2% to last year, driven by strong gains in Steve Madden handbags and apparel. As in wholesale footwear, the branded business saw strong double-digit percentage growth in both domestic and international markets, while the private label business declined compared to the prior year.

配飾和服裝的批發收入為 1.039 億美元，比去年增長 6.2%，這得益於 Steve Madden 手袋和服裝的強勁增長。與批發鞋類一樣，品牌業務在國內和國際市場均實現了兩位數的強勁增長，而自有品牌業務與去年相比有所下降。

In our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue was $118.5 million, a 3.7% decline compared to 2021, driven by a decline in ecommerce. Brick-and-mortar revenue was approximately flat to the prior year. We ended the quarter with 216 brick-and-mortar retail stores, including 67 outlets as well as 6 ecommerce websites and 20 company-operated concessions in international markets.

在我們的直接面向消費者部門，由於電子商務下滑，收入為 1.185 億美元，與 2021 年相比下降了 3.7%。實體店收入與上一年大致持平。在本季度末，我們擁有 216 家實體零售店，其中包括 67 家門店以及 6 個電子商務網站和 20 家公司經營的國際市場特許經營店。

Turning to our Licensing and First Cost segments, our Licensing royalty income was $3.5 million in the quarter compared to $2.7 million last year. We are winding down our First Cost business as we transition the private label customer from a buying agent model to a wholesale model. And as such, third quarter First Cost revenue was de minimis compared to $1 million a year ago.

談到我們的許可和首次成本部分，本季度我們的許可版稅收入為 350 萬美元，而去年為 270 萬美元。隨著我們將自有品牌客戶從採購代理模式轉變為批發模式，我們正在逐步關閉我們的 First Cost 業務。因此，與一年前的 100 萬美元相比，第三季度的 First Cost 收入微不足道。

Consolidated gross margin was 41.2% in the quarter compared to 41.6% in the prior year. Wholesale gross margin was 35.3%, a 170-basis point increase compared to last year, driven by a mix shift to our higher-margin branded business. Direct-to-consumer gross margin was 61.2% versus 65.9% in the prior year, driven by an increase in promotional activity compared to last year's exceptionally low level of promotions.

本季度綜合毛利率為 41.2%，而去年同期為 41.6%。批發毛利率為 35.3%，與去年相比增加了 170 個基點，這是由於我們向利潤率更高的品牌業務的混合轉變。與去年異常低的促銷水平相比，促銷活動增加，直接面向消費者的毛利率為 61.2%，而去年為 65.9%。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $150.5 million or 27% of revenue compared to $131.6 million or 24.9% of revenue last year. The increase was driven primarily by higher warehouse and payroll expenses. Operating income for the quarter totaled $79 million or 14.2% of revenue compared to $88.4 million or 16.7% of revenue in 2021. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.9% compared to 24.4% in 2021.

本季度的運營費用為 1.505 億美元，佔收入的 27%，而去年為 1.316 億美元，佔收入的 24.9%。這一增長主要是由於倉庫和工資支出增加所致。本季度營業收入總額為 7900 萬美元，佔收入的 14.2%，而 2021 年為 8840 萬美元，佔收入的 16.7%。本季度的有效稅率為 22.9%，而 2021 年為 24.4%。

Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden, Ltd. for the quarter was $61.5 million or $0.79 per diluted share compared to $66.6 million or $0.82 per diluted share in 2021.

最後，本季度歸屬於 Steve Madden, Ltd. 的淨收入為 6150 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.79 美元，而 2021 年為 6660 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.82 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet, our financial foundation remains very strong. As of September 30, 2022, we had $148.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and no debt. With supply chain disruption easing and transit times declining, we were able to achieve a meaningful reduction in inventory compared to the end of the previous quarter. Q3 inventory totaled $244.3 million or $62.2 million or 20.3% decrease from the end of Q2. Compared to the third quarter of 2021, inventory was up 21.4%. We expect to continue to see improvement going forward and plan to end the year with inventory below the prior year level.

轉向資產負債表，我們的財務基礎仍然非常強大。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們擁有 1.482 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資，沒有債務。隨著供應鏈中斷的緩解和運輸時間的縮短，與上一季度末相比，我們能夠顯著減少庫存。第三季度庫存總額為 2.443 億美元，即 6220 萬美元，比第二季度末減少 20.3%。與 2021 年第三季度相比，庫存增長了 21.4%。我們預計未來將繼續改善，併計劃在年底庫存低於上年水平。

Our CapEx in the quarter was $4.9 million. During the quarter, we repurchased $35.1 million of the company's common stock, which includes shares acquired through the net settlement of employee stock awards, bringing the year-to-date total repurchases to $112.1 million. There's approximately $117 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization. The company's Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. The dividend will be payable on December 30, 2022, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 16, 2022.

我們本季度的資本支出為 490 萬美元。在本季度，我們回購了 3510 萬美元的公司普通股，其中包括通過員工股票獎勵淨結算獲得的股票，使年初至今的總回購金額達到 1.121 億美元。我們目前的股票回購授權還剩下大約 1.17 億美元。公司董事會批准了每股 0.21 美元的季度現金股息。股息將於 2022 年 12 月 30 日支付給截至 2022 年 12 月 16 日營業結束時在冊的股東。

Turning to our outlook. We are updating our full year guidance, primarily to reflect more conservative ordering from wholesale customers for the fourth quarter as they prioritize inventory control. We now expect 2022 revenue to increase 12.5% to 13.5% compared to 2021 and diluted EPS to be in the range of $2.77 to $2.82. Now I would like to turn the call over to the Operator for questions. Bella?

轉向我們的前景。我們正在更新我們的全年指導，主要是為了反映第四季度批發客戶更保守的訂單，因為他們優先考慮庫存控制。我們現在預計 2022 年的收入將比 2021 年增長 12.5% 至 13.5%，攤薄後每股收益將在 2.77 美元至 2.82 美元之間。現在我想把電話轉給接線員提問。貝拉？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Aubrey Tianello with BNP Paribas.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Aubrey Tianello。

I wanted to start off on the DTC side. Last quarter, you indicated that I think in June and July that the DTC side was comparing up about 57% versus 2019, which is kind of where it shook out for the 3Q, kind of in line with where it was 90 days ago, what you were seeing. Could you just give us maybe any color on how you saw demand progressing through the quarter and then what you're seeing so far in October into early November?

我想從 DTC 方面開始。上個季度，您表示我認為在 6 月和 7 月，DTC 方面與 2019 年相比上漲了約 57%，這與 2019 年第三季度的情況差不多，與 90 天前的情況一致，什麼你看到了。您能否就您如何看待整個季度的需求進展以及您在 10 月至 11 月初到目前為止所看到的情況向我們提供任何顏色？

Sure. Yes. August actually softened, so August was the weakest month of Q3, and then we bounced back in September and October, where we've done better than August. We're still really roughly in line with where we've been over the last several months.

當然。是的。 8 月實際上有所放緩，因此 8 月是第三季度最疲軟的月份，然後我們在 9 月和 10 月反彈，我們的表現比 8 月好。我們仍然大致與過去幾個月的情況保持一致。

Okay. Got it. And then maybe just switching over to the follow-up, switching over on the wholesale side, you called out I think some softness there on the mass side or private label side. Can you maybe talk about U.S. wholesale, what you're seeing kind of across the rest of your different customer sets there? Any variance between them that's worth calling out? Or is it kind of more across the board, the incremental softness you're seeing?

好的。知道了。然後也許只是切換到後續，在批發方面切換，你說我認為大眾方面或自有品牌方面有一些柔軟。你能談談美國的批發嗎，你在其他不同的客戶群中看到了什麼？他們之間有什麼值得一提的差異嗎？還是你所看到的更全面的柔軟度？

Yes. It's really across the board. I would say with very few exceptions, most of our wholesale customers have -- are prioritizing inventory control. Most of them have pulled back on orders as they seek to make sure their inventories are in line. and we're seeing that really across different channels of distribution. As you point out, the mass channel is the weakest. If you look at year-over-year sales growth in the back half, the mass channel is the weakest. But overall, we've seen an increase in conservatism really across the board.

是的。這真的是全面的。我想說，除了極少數例外，我們的大多數批發客戶都有 - 優先考慮庫存控制。他們中的大多數人已經撤回了訂單，因為他們試圖確保他們的庫存符合要求。我們確實在不同的分銷渠道中看到了這一點。正如您所指出的，大眾渠道是最弱的。如果你看下半年的同比銷售增長，大眾渠道是最弱的。但總的來說，我們已經看到保守主義的全面增加。

Got it. And then if I could just ask one last one, just maybe kind of a bigger picture kind of question. How do you think maybe the business could benefit from potential trade down effect if we did go into a more severe economic downturn looking into next year maybe? I think Steve Madden was pretty resilient '08, '09, but obviously, the business has changed quite a lot since then, so how should maybe we think about the potential for some trade down benefit?

知道了。然後，如果我可以問最後一個，也許是一個更大的問題。如果我們確實進入明年更嚴重的經濟衰退，您認為該業務可能如何從潛在的貿易下滑效應中受益？我認為史蒂夫·馬登（Steve Madden）在 08 年和 09 年非常有彈性，但顯然，從那時起，業務發生了很大變化，那麼我們應該如何考慮可能會帶來一些降息收益呢？

Yes. I think if that comes to pass, we are pretty well positioned. I think even in the core brand, Steve Madden, we potentially could get some trade down. We really offer designer styling at accessible prices. And as you point out, the Steve Madden brand, and our company overall, but the brand in particular performed very well during the Great Recession. We actually demonstrated very strong growth even in 2009. We certainly have a history of being able to navigate these kinds of difficult conditions and take share.

是的。我認為，如果這成為現實，我們就處於有利地位。我認為即使在核心品牌 Steve Madden 中，我們也可能會進行一些交易。我們真的以實惠的價格提供設計師造型。正如您所指出的，Steve Madden 品牌以及我們公司的整體情況，但該品牌在大衰退期間的表現尤其出色。實際上，即使在 2009 年，我們也表現出非常強勁的增長。我們當然有能夠駕馭這些困難條件並分享份額的歷史。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

You mentioned the pullback on the wholesale order book. I'm curious if you can give any color as to what is happening at point of sale with it in your mass channel as well as the department store channel. And also, if you could give any color in terms of what you're seeing in terms of spring orders. Have you seen a similar pullback? And if so, how does that break down by the 2 different primary channels?

你提到了批發訂單的回調。我很好奇您是否可以在大眾渠道和百貨商店渠道中對銷售點發生的情況給出任何顏色。而且，如果您可以根據春季訂單所看到的內容給出任何顏色。你見過類似的回調嗎？如果是這樣，這兩個不同的主要渠道是如何分解的？

Yes. I would say across the board, if you look at point of sale or our sell-through to the end consumer, what you see is that our retail sales are well above where they were in pre-COVID or well above 19%, but below what we saw in last year's fall season when they were pretty exceptional. In terms of spring order books, not going to get too specific here because as in keeping with our normal practice, we're going to talk about '23 on the next call and provide guidance at that point. But generally speaking, I don't think it will surprise you that the wholesale customers are approaching initial orders conservatively, and we're seeing that across the different channels in which we operate. The good news is that given the easing of the supply chain and the fact that, as I alluded to in my prepared remarks, that we're really now in a position to get back to what we do best, which is working close to season and testing to react, testing and reacting in season. Where we start with initial orders can vary pretty dramatically from where we end in the season. And many times, we've started off with conservative orders and identified strong sellers and chased into a very strong season. We'll be in a position to do that in spring '23.

是的。我想說的是，如果您查看銷售點或我們對最終消費者的銷售，您會看到我們的零售額遠高於 COVID 之前的水平或遠高於 19%，但低於我們在去年秋季看到的非常特別。就春季訂單而言，這裡不會太具體，因為按照我們的正常做法，我們將在下一次電話會議上討論 '23 並在那時提供指導。但總的來說，我認為批發客戶保守地接近初始訂單並不會讓你感到驚訝，而且我們在我們經營的不同渠道中都看到了這一點。好消息是，鑑於供應鏈的放鬆以及事實上，正如我在準備好的講話中提到的那樣，我們現在真的能夠回到我們最擅長的地方，即接近季節和測試反應，測試和反應在季節。我們從初始訂單開始的地方可能與我們在本季結束的地方有很大的不同。很多時候，我們從保守的訂單開始，確定了強勁的賣家，並進入了一個非常強勁的季節。我們將能夠在 23 年春季做到這一點。

And just a follow-up, what are you seeing on the cost side as you look out to '23 or maybe first half versus second half? How are you thinking about product costs?

只是一個後續行動，當您展望 23 年或者可能是上半年與下半年時，您在成本方面看到了什麼？您如何看待產品成本？

I think on the factory side, there may be some opportunity for improvement. Obviously, as the demand environment has weakened, some of the factories are a little hungrier for business, and so the supply and demand is moving in our favor there, which enables us to negotiate some better prices. We've also got a currency benefit, particularly against the Chinese RMB, which we'll be looking to try to take advantage of in terms of our factory pricing. And of course, as everybody is aware, ocean container rates have come down dramatically. Freight, which has obviously been a source of pressure over the last couple of years, hopefully turns or it should turn into a tailwind next year, so we've got some opportunities there. There are places where we continue to see pressure. Wages, warehousing, etc. But certainly, from an overall cost perspective, I think 2023 should be shaping up better than 2022.

我認為在工廠方面，可能會有一些改進的機會。很明顯，隨著需求環境的減弱，一些工廠的生意有點餓了，所以那裡的供需正在向我們有利的方向發展，這使我們能夠談判一些更好的價格。我們還獲得了貨幣優勢，尤其是兌人民幣，我們將在工廠定價方面嘗試利用這一優勢。當然，眾所周知，海運集裝箱運費已大幅下降。貨運，這在過去幾年中顯然是壓力的來源，有望在明年轉變或應該成為順風，所以我們在那裡有一些機會。在某些地方，我們繼續看到壓力。工資、倉儲等。但可以肯定的是，從整體成本的角度來看，我認為 2023 年應該會好於 2022 年。

Your next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with the Retail Tracker.

您的下一個問題來自 Marni Shapiro 的零售追踪器系列。

And before I dive into questions, I just want to say congrats to your team because your product assortments have been spot-on, and it's stunning. Your stores continue to just be busy and filled with all the right trends. I wanted to just ask a couple of quick ones. September and October, I think you said sales rebounded a bit from August. And I hate to ask this question in a post-COVID world where there's so many other issues, but was some of that influenced by weather? When it kicked in a little cooler, did she start to look for boots and loafers versus open-toe shoes? And could you give us a little bit of high level, are sneakers still doing well? I know there's just a lot of fashion happening out there. I'm curious because that was a very strong business, has been a very strong business for you.

在我深入探討問題之前，我只想向您的團隊表示祝賀，因為您的產品分類已經到位，而且令人驚嘆。您的商店繼續忙碌並充滿了所有正確的趨勢。我想問幾個快速的。 9 月和 10 月，我想你說銷售額比 8 月有所回升。而且我討厭在一個有很多其他問題的後COVID世界中問這個問題，但其中一些是受天氣影響的嗎？當天氣稍微涼爽一些時，她是否開始尋找靴子和樂福鞋而不是露趾鞋？能不能給我們一點高水平，球鞋還做得好嗎？我知道那裡有很多時尚正在發生。我很好奇，因為那是一項非常強大的業務，對你來說一直是一項非常強大的業務。

Yes. Look, on the weather, yes, I mean it always helps when it gets colder to flip us to more fall products. I haven't -- it's not something we've been talking about a lot internally. I don't think it was a huge driver, but certainly it helped. In terms of sneakers, we've still got some very good sellers in that category, but I would say there's a little bit less newness there right now. We're still selling some very well. We've got some Oliver White sneakers doing very well, some Big Bottom sneakers that continue to perform. But I don't see that category on the upswing at the moment.

是的。看，關於天氣，是的，我的意思是，當天氣變冷時，讓我們轉向更多秋季產品總是有幫助的。我沒有——這不是我們在內部經常談論的事情。我不認為這是一個巨大的驅動力，但肯定有幫助。在運動鞋方面，我們在該類別中仍然有一些非常好的賣家，但我想說現在那裡的新品少了一點。我們仍然賣得很好。我們有一些 Oliver White 運動鞋做得很好，一些 Big Bottom 運動鞋繼續表現出色。但我目前沒有看到該類別呈上升趨勢。

And then could you just also -- you talked a little bit about your mass retailers being -- pulling back orders. Can you talk a little bit about what that looks like from the off-price channel and how it looks? Are they canceling orders already into spring and summer of '23? Or was this just near term? Just a little bit more clarity on that comment.

然後你能不能也——你談到你的大眾零售商——撤回訂單。你能談談折扣渠道的外觀和外觀嗎？他們是否已經在 23 年春季和夏季取消訂單？或者這只是近期？對那條評論稍微清楚一點。

Well, I think in terms of cancellations, yes, we have dealt with some cancellations for fall here. No, we're not really seeing cancellations for spring, but we've seen conservative initial ordering for spring.

好吧，我認為就取消而言，是的，我們已經處理了一些秋季的取消。不，我們並沒有真正看到春季的取消，但我們已經看到了保守的春季初始訂單。

Okay. That's great. And then sorry, one last. Any -- I'm just curious, any update on the men's side of the business? I know it's smaller than the women's and the women's has been killing it, but just any update on the men's side?

好的。那太棒了。然後對不起，最後一個。任何——我只是好奇，關於男性業務的任何更新？我知道它比女性小，女性一直在殺死它，但是男性方面的任何更新？

Yes, men's has been a really nice story for us over the last year or so. It was a business that took a big hit during COVID, but it's bounced back very strong. And really, we've been really pleased with the progress we've made there. We've really elevated the product. We've increased AURs, but we've done it by really putting more into the shoes, improving the quality, improving the styling. And that business is performing very well for us, both in terms of shipping but also sell-through. And in better tiers of distribution, too, so performing very well at the Nordstroms, the Dillards, etc. So just excited about what we're seeing there. We're having a good boot season this fall. Our dress shoes are performing very well. Doing well with some real dressy stuff, special occasion type stuff, so a lot of good stuff there.

是的，在過去一年左右的時間裡，男裝對我們來說是一個非常好的故事。這是一家在 COVID 期間遭受重創的企業，但反彈得非常強勁。真的，我們對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們確實提升了產品。我們增加了 AUR，但我們確實通過在鞋子上投入更多、提高質量、改進造型來做到這一點。無論是在運輸方面，還是在銷售方面，這項業務對我們來說都表現得非常好。而且在更好的分銷層級中，在 Nordstroms、Dillards 等也表現得非常好。所以對我們在那裡看到的東西感到很興奮。今年秋天我們有一個很好的新賽季。我們的正裝鞋表現非常好。在一些真正的考究的東西上做得很好，特殊場合類型的東西，所以那裡有很多好東西。

That's excellent. Congrats on that and best of luck for the holiday season.

那太好了。恭喜你，祝你假期好運。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Nikic with Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Tom Nikic。

You mentioned in the press release and the prepared remarks that you saw some increased promotional activity in Q3. I know you've kind of had exceptionally low levels of promotional activity in 2021. Would you say that the promotional activity in Q3 was more just kind of like getting back to normal? I don't know if you can compare it relative to where you were in 2019. Was it kind of like better or worse than what you were seeing promotionally in DTC in pre-COVID world? And then how should we think about promo activity in DTC in the fourth quarter and maybe into early 2023? Thanks.

您在新聞稿和準備好的評論中提到，您看到第三季度的促銷活動有所增加。我知道你們在 2021 年的促銷活動水平非常低。你會說第三季度的促銷活動更像是恢復正常嗎？我不知道您是否可以將其與您在 2019 年的情況進行比較。與您在 COVID 之前的世界中 DTC 的促銷活動相比，它是更好還是更差？然後我們應該如何考慮 DTC 在第四季度以及可能到 2023 年初的促銷活動？謝謝。

Yes. I think promo activity generally speaking, it's sort of back to 2019 levels in the industry overall. I think in our own DTC, right now we're still trending less promotional than we were back in '19. In Q3, we did have to get a little bit more aggressive to move through some of the seasonal goods, the spring/summer goods that we were clearing. But as we move into Q4, that part of it is behind us. And in fact, we think that we can, on an overall basis, have DTC margins up versus last year in Q4 or in line or up to last year.

是的。我認為促銷活動一般來說，它在整個行業中有點回到 2019 年的水平。我認為在我們自己的 DTC 中，現在我們的促銷趨勢仍然不如 19 年時的趨勢。在第三季度，我們確實必須更加積極地處理一些季節性商品，即我們正在清理的春夏商品。但是當我們進入第四季度時，這部分已經過去了。事實上，我們認為，總體而言，我們可以在第四季度使 DTC 利潤率與去年相比有所上升，或與去年持平或達到去年。

Sounds good. Thanks for taking the question and best of luck in the holiday season.

聽起來不錯。感謝您提出這個問題，祝您在假期裡好運。

Your next question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自於 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

It's about the mix comment that you make on the wholesale business in the press release, that mix has improved. Are you seeing -- and I think that that was mostly just because private label has declined, but are you seeing any shift in mix within your branded goods either for the better or for the worse?

這是關於您在新聞稿中對批發業務所做的混合評論，這種混合有所改善。您是否看到 - 我認為這主要是因為自有品牌已經下降，但是您是否看到您的品牌商品中的組合有任何變化，無論是好是壞？

No, you're right. The comment was related to branded versus private label and the fact that branded is outperforming private label in the back half here. It wasn't -- there's really no meaningful change between brands.

不，你是對的。該評論與品牌與自有品牌以及品牌在後半部分的表現優於自有品牌這一事實有關。不是——品牌之間確實沒有有意義的變化。

Got it. In the fourth quarter, obviously, we can see your revenue guidance. But embedded in that, do you think there will be an improvement in the trend of your ecommerce business in the DTC segment?

知道了。顯然，在第四季度，我們可以看到您的收入指導。但嵌入其中，您認為您的電子商務業務在 DTC 領域的趨勢會有所改善嗎？

Yes. Year-over-year, I do. We're still planning it down low singles in Q4, but that represents a modest improvement from where we were in Q3.

是的。年復一年，我願意。我們仍在計劃在第四季度降低單曲，但這代表了我們在第三季度的適度改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Jay Sole with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

Ed, you mentioned increased investment in marketing and consumer engagement in kind of your opening remarks on the call. Maybe elaborate on that a little bit. Tell us kind of what your plans are, what your goals are with that and sort of the cost that's going to be associated with that and sort of the return that you expect on that investment.

Ed，您在電話會議的開場白中提到了增加對營銷和消費者參與的投資。也許稍微詳細說明一下。告訴我們您的計劃是什麼，您的目標是什麼，以及與此相關的成本以及您對該投資的期望回報。

Yes. I mean that's something that we've been talking about for a few years now. Each year, you've been seeing us increase the investment in marketing. Part of that, obviously, or a significant part has been performance marketing associated with driving the ecommerce growth that we've seen, which has been tremendous over the last few years. But in addition to that, we're also investing in some brand campaigns like the one I mentioned earlier, and top of funnel marketing, and that's going to continue to be important as we go forward. I don't -- this year, it was about 50 basis points increase in marketing as a percentage of sales. I think we're going to end the year around 4% of revenue. I think you'll continue to see a little bit of pressure there, but probably not to that same degree going forward.

是的。我的意思是，這是我們幾年來一直在談論的事情。每年，您都看到我們增加了對營銷的投資。顯然，其中一部分或重要部分是與推動我們所看到的電子商務增長相關的績效營銷，這在過去幾年中是巨大的。但除此之外，我們還投資了一些品牌活動，比如我之前提到的品牌活動，以及漏斗營銷的頂部，隨著我們的發展，這將繼續很重要。我沒有——今年，營銷佔銷售額的百分比增加了大約 50 個基點。我認為我們將在今年年底收入的 4% 左右。我認為你會繼續在那裡看到一點壓力，但可能不會達到同樣的程度。

And then maybe if I can follow up, just if you can just maybe give a little bit more detail on exactly what drove the change in the guidance from last quarter to this quarter. I mean it sounds like it was orders in the mass channel, but I mean if you can just sort of confirm that, that would be helpful. Thank you.

然後也許如果我可以跟進，只要您可以提供更多詳細信息，說明從上個季度到本季度的指導變化的確切原因。我的意思是這聽起來像是大眾頻道的訂單，但我的意思是如果你能確認一下，那會很有幫助。謝謝你。

Yes. It wasn't just the mass channel. It was really the wholesale business overall. DTC really remained in line with where we were with our forecast that we provided at the end of Q2, but we did pull back on our estimates for the wholesale channel. And again, that's mass, but that's the other tiers of distribution as well, as all of our, many of our wholesale customers got more conservative and prioritized inventory control.

是的。這不僅僅是大眾渠道。總體而言，這確實是批發業務。 DTC 確實與我們在第二季度末提供的預測保持一致，但我們確實撤回了對批發渠道的估計。再說一次，這是大規模的，但這也是其他分銷層次，就像我們所有人一樣，我們的許多批發客戶都變得更加保守和優先考慮庫存控制。

And maybe just the last thing for me, it sounds like you feel pretty comfortable with the inventory that will be sort of back in line with the sales trend at the end of the year. Can you just explain maybe what gives you confidence that the inventory that you're carrying now won't result in bigger promotions or more clearance activity that would put some pressure on gross margin?

也許對我來說只是最後一件事，聽起來你對庫存感到很舒服，這將在年底與銷售趨勢保持一致。您能否解釋一下，是什麼讓您相信您現在持有的庫存不會導致更大的促銷活動或更多的清倉活動，從而對毛利率造成一定壓力？

You're talking about the inventory on our balance sheet?

你說的是我們資產負債表上的存貨嗎？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

Yes. Well, look, I think that we felt pretty comfortable with the level of inventory that we've had throughout the year. And even -- I think we went into quite a lot of detail at the end of Q2 about the fact that while it was optically high, it was really related to us adding 40 days to our production calendar because of the extended transit times. It didn't mean that we had a lot of inventory that wasn't accounted for. It just meant that we were placing those orders earlier, and so you continue to see that impact. That's obviously gotten a lot better. We shaved at least 10 days or so off that for -- with the inventory that we have at the end of Q3. And now, as we're going forward, whereas we were building an additional 40 days of padding for the transit time, now it's really 5 to 10 days extra compared to normal, compared to where we were pre-COVID. You're going to start to see that inventory level come down. But more specifically addressing your question, we do feel good about where we are with the inventory levels. There's not a lot of speculative inventory here. Certainly, in the wholesale channel. Obviously, we've got inventory for DTC, but we feel good about the amount and the composition of it.

是的。好吧，看，我認為我們對全年的庫存水平感到非常滿意。甚至——我認為我們在第二季度末討論了很多細節，雖然它在光學上很高，但由於運輸時間延長，這確實與我們在生產日曆上增加了 40 天有關。這並不意味著我們有很多沒有被計算在內的庫存。這只是意味著我們更早地下了這些訂單，所以你會繼續看到這種影響。這顯然變得好多了。我們在第三季度末的庫存中減少了至少 10 天左右的時間。現在，隨著我們的前進，雖然我們為運輸時間增加了 40 天的填充時間，但與 COVID 之前的情況相比，現在與正常情況相比確實多出了 5 到 10 天。您將開始看到庫存水平下降。但更具體地說，解決您的問題，我們確實對我們的庫存水平感到滿意。這裡沒有很多投機庫存。當然，在批發渠道。顯然，我們有 DTC 的庫存，但我們對它的數量和組成感覺很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

您的下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢小組的 Dana Telsey。

Given the adjustments in sales growth for the year, 12.5% to 13.5%, what are your new expectations for wholesale and DTC growth for the year? I think it had been like mid to high-teens wholesale growth or mid-single to high-single-digit DTC growth. How do you reframe? And what are your expectations for international? And how did that do this quarter?

考慮到全年銷售增長12.5%到13.5%的調整，您對今年批發和DTC增長的新預期是什麼？我認為這就像中高位批發增長或中單到高個位數的 DTC 增長。你如何重構？您對國際的期望是什麼？本季度的情況如何？

Sure. Yes. In terms of the channels, DTC, we're still looking at 6%, 7% growth for the year, which is pretty similar to where we were before. In wholesale, I would say more like 15% to 16% for the year. And what was the other -- oh, International. International has been a real bright spot for us. That's been the best-performing part of the business this year. Which it has now been a few years that this has been the fastest-growing part of our business, but as I mentioned on the call, or on the earlier part of the call, 4 quarters in a row of more than 50% year-over-year growth. The momentum really continues there and we're just very pleased about what we're seeing. And it's really across all of our meaningful regions we're seeing nice growth.

當然。是的。就渠道而言，DTC，我們仍然期待今年 6%、7% 的增長，這與我們之前的情況非常相似。在批發方面，我想說的是今年的 15% 到 16%。另一個是什麼——哦，國際。國際對我們來說是一個真正的亮點。這是今年業務中表現最好的部分。幾年來，這一直是我們業務增長最快的部分，但正如我在電話會議或電話會議的早期部分中提到的那樣，連續 4 個季度超過 50% 的年-同比增長。這種勢頭確實在繼續，我們對我們所看到的感到非常高興。在我們所有有意義的地區，我們都看到了良好的增長。

Got it. And then on the brick-and-mortar side of the business, which I think was flat, anything to what you're seeing there? Urban versus suburban, outlet versus full price, and how that's performing?

知道了。然後在業務的實體方面，我認為這是平淡的，你在那裡看到了什麼？城市與郊區，奧特萊斯與全價，以及表現如何？

Yes. I mean in terms of geography, New York City, urban versus suburban, New York City was our top performing region in terms of comp performance. Now, I think a lot of that was that it had the easiest comparisons from a year ago because that region came back later, but very strong comp growth in Q3 in New York and got back to flat to '19, which is the first time we've seen that since COVID. And then in Q3, our outlet stores did a little bit better than our full price stores.

是的。我的意思是就地理而言，紐約市，城市與郊區，紐約市是我們表現最好的地區。現在，我認為其中很大一部分是它與一年前的比較最簡單，因為該地區後來又回來了，但紐約第三季度的競爭增長非常強勁，並回到了 19 年的持平，這是第一次自 COVID 以來，我們已經看到了這一點。然後在第三季度，我們的直銷店比我們的全價店做得好一點。

Got it. And then just lastly on lead times, I think you were at 30 days pre-pandemic. I think you were 45 days last quarter. Where are you now? And how do you see that progressing?

知道了。然後最後是交貨時間，我認為您處於大流行前 30 天。我想你上個季度是 45 天。你現在在哪裡？您如何看待這一進展？

Yes. We're really -- when we're placing orders now, we're working on sort of 35 to 40 days as the assumption, so continuing to make progress there.

是的。我們真的 - 當我們現在下訂單時，假設我們正在工作 35 到 40 天，所以繼續在那裡取得進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Williams Trading.

您的下一個問題來自 Sam Poser 與 Williams Trading 的對話。

Just I want to get into the weeds a little bit here. Do you think that -- can you hear me? Okay. Do you believe that given the conservatism or the caution of your wholesale partners that, thinking about it in a large picture, last year they did great with not a lot of inventory. They thought they could do better this year, they bought too much. Now it looks -- does this look like an overreaction the other direction on initial orders sort of going into next year and you're thinking of yourself as the folks that can respond to this well?

只是我想在這裡稍微了解一下。你認為——你能聽到我的聲音嗎？好的。您是否認為考慮到批發合作夥伴的保守主義或謹慎態度，從大局考慮，去年他們在庫存不多的情況下表現出色。他們認為他們今年可以做得更好，他們買了太多。現在看起來 - 這看起來像是對明年初始訂單的另一個方向的過度反應，並且您認為自己是能夠很好地回應這一點的人嗎？

Without commenting on whether they're overreacting or not, I will say that the initial orders are going to be conservative, and we do feel that we have a real competitive advantage in that environment if those retailers need to chase goods. And that's -- I think if you look back for instance at our success during the Great Recession, I think that part of that -- obviously, most of it was because we had great product. But a good part of that was also because of our ability to operate in this environment and to be the go-to vendor when folks want to chase in-season. Because similar to what we're seeing now, back then many of the retailers decided they wanted to place fewer orders upfront and really look to chase in-season, and we are the go-to supplier in anything like that.

在不評論他們是否反應過度的情況下，我會說最初的訂單將是保守的，如果這些零售商需要追逐商品，我們確實認為在這種環境下我們擁有真正的競爭優勢。那就是——我想如果你回顧一下我們在大衰退期間的成功，我認為這部分——顯然，大部分是因為我們有很棒的產品。但其中很大一部分也是因為我們有能力在這種環境中運作，並且當人們想要追趕旺季時，我們可以成為首選供應商。因為與我們現在看到的類似，當時許多零售商決定他們希望減少預先下的訂單，並真正尋求趕上旺季，而我們是此類事情的首選供應商。

To follow up on that, given the supply chain issues that have been improving but were there, you've written a lot more let's call it March/April orders now or February/March/April orders now are in-house than they were historically. Is that a fair statement as a percent, like you've just taken more orders for that period given the way the supply chain was working at the time?

為了跟進這一點，鑑於供應鏈問題一直在改善但確實存在，您已經寫了很多，讓我們現在稱之為 3 月/4 月訂單或 2 月/3 月/4 月訂單現在是內部的，而不是歷史上.考慮到當時供應鏈的運作方式，這是否是一個公平的百分比陳述，就像您在那個時期剛剛接受了更多訂單一樣？

Yes. But we're really getting back to our normal model now. You're seeing we're moving much more back to our normal calendar.

是的。但我們現在真的回到了我們的正常模式。你看到我們正在更多地回到我們的正常日曆。

A year ago or a year ago in December, you were taking back-to-school orders for all practical purposes, given the supply chain. This time, I assume you'll be right -- when we get to Fannie in December, you're going to be writing March/April and be able to get goods quickly if need be. Is that a fair statement?

一年前或一年前的 12 月，考慮到供應鏈，出於所有實際目的，您正在接受返校訂單。這一次，我想你是對的——當我們在 12 月到達房利美時，你將在 3 月 / 4 月寫作，如果需要的話，你可以快速拿到貨。這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Yes. We'll be able to work closer to season and test and react in-season again, that's right.

是的。我們將能夠在接近賽季的時候工作並再次在賽季中進行測試和反應，這是正確的。

And then the -- it was sort of asked before, but the demand you're seeing for product within your big wholesale partners is stronger than -- is it stronger than the orders that are coming your way to replenish those or whatever?

然後 - 之前有人問過，但是您在大型批發合作夥伴中看到的對產品的需求比 - 它是否比您補充這些或其他方式的訂單更強勁？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for the concise answer and continued success.

感謝您的簡潔回答和持續成功。

Your last question comes from the line of Steve Marotta with C.L. King.

你的最後一個問題來自 Steve Marotta 和 C.L. 的台詞。國王。

Ed, you mentioned that costs in 2023 are looking better than 2022. Can you talk a little bit about whether that's absolute or relative? In other words, do you think there will be less inflation next year? Or do you think that there could actually be deflation in your unit, landed unit costs next year versus this year?

Ed，您提到 2023 年的成本看起來比 2022 年要好。您能談談這是絕對的還是相對的？換句話說，你認為明年通脹會減少嗎？或者您認為明年與今年相比，您的單位、到岸單位成本實際上可能會出現通縮？

I think there is a scenario where there's actually deflation in landed costs.

我認為有一種情況是到岸成本實際上會出現通縮。

That's helpful. And this is a tad bit speculative, but considering that you are very near to your normal turnaround times, maybe 5 to 10 days extra currently, at this trajectory, when do you think you would get back to fully normal, 100% normal?

這很有幫助。這有點投機，但考慮到您非常接近正常的周轉時間，目前可能多出 5 到 10 天，在這個軌跡上，您認為什麼時候會恢復完全正常，100% 正常？

Within the next couple of months. Yes.

在接下來的幾個月內。是的。

By year-end. Okay, excellent. Thank you very much.

到年底。好的，很棒。非常感謝。

There are no further questions in the queue. I will now turn the call back over to Ed Rosenfeld.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我現在將電話轉回給 Ed Rosenfeld。

Great. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking to you on the next call. Have a great day.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待在下一次電話會議上與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。