Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the 4Q 2022 Steve Madden Limited Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. This event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Danielle McCoy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到 2022 年第四季度 Steve Madden Limited 收益電話會議。所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。 （操作員說明）在今天的演示之後，將有機會提問。正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Danielle McCoy。請繼續。

Thanks, Debbie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast.

謝謝，黛比，大家早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議和網絡廣播。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our press release issued earlier today and filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. The financial results discussed on today's call are on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們接下來的評論，包括對您問題的回答，包含我們認為是《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的事項。我們不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些陳述可能要到我們下一次季度收益電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。除非另有說明，否則今天電話會議上討論的財務結果是經過調整的。我們的收益發布中包含與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬。

Joining me today on the call is Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Zine Mazouzi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed. Ed?

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Ed Rosenfeld；和首席財務官 Zine Mazouzi。有了這個，我會把電話轉給埃德。埃德？

Well, thanks, Danielle, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Steve Madden's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results.

好吧，謝謝 Danielle，大家早上好，感謝您加入我們回顧 Steve Madden 的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績。

We are pleased to have delivered fourth quarter earnings results in line with our expectations despite an increasingly challenging backdrop. For the full year 2022, we achieved record financial performance, crossing the $2 billion mark in revenue for the first time with double-digit percentage growth on both the top and bottom lines. These results demonstrate the power of our brands and the strength of our business model as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy.

儘管面臨越來越大的挑戰，但我們很高興第四季度的盈利結果符合我們的預期。 2022 年全年，我們實現了創紀錄的財務業績，收入首次突破 20 億美元大關，收入和利潤均實現兩位數百分比增長。這些結果證明了我們品牌的力量和我們商業模式的實力以及我們戰略的嚴格執行。

Let me briefly walk you through that strategy and the progress we made on our key initiatives in 2022. First and foremost, our top priority, as always, is winning with product. By utilizing our proven model, which combines talented design teams, a test and react strategy and an industry-leading speed-to-market capability, we consistently create trend-right product assortments and get them to market ahead of the competition. We are then supporting this great product with an always-on full funnel marketing and consumer engagement strategy.

讓我簡要介紹一下該戰略以及我們在 2022 年的關鍵舉措方面取得的進展。首先，我們的首要任務一如既往地以產品取勝。通過利用我們經過驗證的模型，該模型結合了才華橫溢的設計團隊、測試和反應策略以及行業領先的快速上市能力，我們始終如一地創造出符合趨勢的產品組合，並在競爭中領先於市場。然後，我們通過始終在線的全漏斗營銷和消費者參與策略來支持這款出色的產品。

By combining outstanding product and effective marketing, we are creating deeper connections with our consumers, which in turn is enabling our success with our four key business drivers. The first of which is driving our direct-to-consumer business led by digital. In 2022, our DTC revenue increased 7% over 2021 and exceeded $500 million for the first time. Compared to pre-COVID 2019, DTC revenue was up 62%, including a 192% increase in digital, and we have increased our overall DTC penetration by approximately 700 basis points over this time period.

通過將出色的產品和有效的營銷相結合，我們正在與消費者建立更深層次的聯繫，這反過來又使我們能夠通過我們的四個關鍵業務驅動因素取得成功。首先是推動我們以數字為主導的直接面向消費者的業務。 2022 年，我們的 DTC 收入比 2021 年增長 7%，首次超過 5 億美元。與 2019 年 COVID 之前相比，DTC 收入增長了 62%，其中數字收入增長了 192%，在此期間我們將 DTC 的整體滲透率提高了約 700 個基點。

Our second key business driver is expanding our business outside of footwear. In 2022, our accessories and apparel business exceeded $400 million in revenue and increased 13% over 2021. Steve Madden handbags grew 19% for the year. In apparel, we successfully transitioned from the BB Dakota-Steve Madden co-brand to the Steve Madden brand for fall of 2022, and overall apparel revenue for the year increased 38%.

我們的第二個關鍵業務驅動因素是將我們的業務擴展到鞋類之外。 2022 年，我們的配飾和服裝業務收入超過 4 億美元，比 2021 年增長 13%。Steve Madden 手袋全年增長 19%。在服裝方面，我們在 2022 年秋季成功地從 BB Dakota-Steve Madden 聯名品牌過渡到 Steve Madden 品牌，全年服裝總收入增長了 38%。

Our third key business driver is growing our business in international markets. International has been the fastest-growing part of our business over the last few years, and we believe it represents our largest long-term growth opportunity going forward. 2022, we grew international revenue 56% compared to 2021. For the year, international represented 16% of our total revenue, up approximately 500 basis points from pre-COVID 2019. We also continue to make investments to drive international growth going forward. Part of our strategy in this business is to transition from the distributor model to an ownership model in key markets.

我們的第三個關鍵業務驅動力是在國際市場上發展我們的業務。過去幾年，國際業務一直是我們業務增長最快的部分，我們相信它代表著我們未來最大的長期增長機會。到 2022 年，我們的國際收入比 2021 年增長了 56%。這一年，國際收入占我們總收入的 16%，比 2019 年 COVID 之前增加了約 500 個基點。我們還將繼續進行投資以推動國際增長。我們在該業務中的部分戰略是在主要市場從分銷商模式過渡到所有權模式。

In the Middle East, we've had a distributor relationship for over a decade and in recent years, the brand has gained strong traction in the region. In order to capitalize on the significant growth opportunity we see in the GCC, in December, we converted that business to a joint venture model when we formed a new partnership with leading regional player Apparel Group. We own 50.1% of the JV and Apparel Group owns 49.9%. There are currently 21 Steve Madden stores in the territory, and we expect to end the year with between 25 and 30 locations.

在中東，我們與經銷商建立了十多年的關係，近年來，該品牌在該地區獲得了強大的吸引力。為了利用我們在海灣合作委員會看到的重大增長機會，我們在 12 月與領先的區域企業 Apparel Group 建立了新的合作夥伴關係，將該業務轉變為合資企業模式。我們擁有合資企業 50.1% 的股權，Apparel Group 擁有 49.9% 的股權。該地區目前有 21 家 Steve Madden 商店，我們預計今年年底將有 25 到 30 家門店。

Finally, our fourth key business driver is continuing to strengthen the U.S. wholesale footwear business that remains the core of our business. In 2022, U.S. wholesale footwear revenue reached a $1 billion mark, increasing 13% over 2021, including more than 20% year-over-year growth in each of our four largest brands; Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, Anne Klein, and Betsey Johnson. So overall, 2022 was a strong year for Steve Madden as we delivered record financial performance and demonstrated tangible progress on each of our key strategic initiatives.

最後，我們的第四個關鍵業務驅動因素是繼續加強仍然是我們業務核心的美國鞋類批發業務。 2022 年，美國鞋類批發收入達到 10 億美元大關，比 2021 年增長 13%，其中我們的四個最大品牌的年增長率均超過 20%； Steve Madden、Dolce Vita、Anne Klein 和 Betsey Johnson。因此，總體而言，2022 年對 Steve Madden 來說是強勁的一年，因為我們實現了創紀錄的財務業績，並在我們的每項關鍵戰略舉措上都取得了切實進展。

That said the operating environment became increasingly challenging as the year progressed. Consumers began to pull back on discretionary spending and more impactfully to us, our wholesale customers pulled back on orders as they prioritize inventory control. We also face increasingly challenging comparisons with the prior year as the year went on, culminating in the fourth quarter when we were lapping a quarter where revenue was up 38% and diluted EPS was up 125% to pre-COVID in 2019.

也就是說，隨著時間的推移，經營環境變得越來越具有挑戰性。消費者開始減少可自由支配的支出，對我們影響更大的是，我們的批發客戶減少了訂單，因為他們優先考慮庫存控制。隨著時間的推移，我們也面臨著與前一年越來越具有挑戰性的比較，最終在第四季度達到頂峰，當時我們的收入增長了 38%，稀釋後的每股收益比 2019 年 COVID 之前增長了 125%。

As we look ahead, we expect these challenges to persist in the near term. Our wholesale customers have taken a conservative approach to spring orders. The outlook for overall consumer spending is uncertain, and we faced tough comparisons in the first half, particularly in the first quarter when the compares are very similar to what we faced in Q4. That said, we have a proven ability to navigate difficult market conditions and a track record of taking market share during challenging economic periods, due largely to our agile business model, which enables us to run lean on inventory and chase goods in season when needed.

展望未來，我們預計這些挑戰將在短期內持續存在。我們的批發客戶對春季訂單採取了保守的態度。整體消費者支出的前景不確定，我們在上半年面臨艱難的比較，尤其是在第一季度，當時的比較與我們在第四季度面臨的情況非常相似。也就是說，我們已經證明有能力應對困難的市場條件，並且在充滿挑戰的經濟時期擁有佔據市場份額的記錄，這主要歸功於我們靈活的商業模式，這使我們能夠依靠庫存運行並在需要時追逐季節性商品。

Looking out further, we remain confident that we can leverage our core strengths, our people, our brands, and our business model to continue to drive progress on our key strategic initiatives, which in turn will enable us to deliver sustainable growth and create value for our stakeholders over the long term. Now I'll turn it over to Zine to review our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results in more detail and provide our initial outlook for 2023.

展望未來，我們仍然相信我們可以利用我們的核心優勢、我們的員工、我們的品牌和我們的商業模式來繼續推動我們的關鍵戰略計劃取得進展，這反過來將使我們能夠實現可持續增長並為我們的利益相關者長期。現在我將把它交給 Zine 來更詳細地回顧我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務業績，並提供我們對 2023 年的初步展望。

Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. 2022 marked a record year in terms of both revenue and earnings. Our consolidated revenue in 2022 was $2.1 billion, a 13.7% increase compared to 2021. Our wholesale revenue was $1.6 billion, up 16.4% compared to the prior year, including an increase of 16.9% in wholesale footwear revenue to $1.2 billion, and an increase of 14.8% in wholesale accessories vendor power revenue to $394.7 million.

謝謝，艾德，大家早上好。 2022 年是收入和收益均創紀錄的一年。我們在 2022 年的綜合收入為 21 億美元，比 2021 年增長 13.7%。我們的批發收入為 16 億美元，比上年增長 16.4%，其中批發鞋類收入增長 16.9% 至 12 億美元，並且增加批發配件供應商電力收入增長 14.8% 至 3.947 億美元。

Now our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue was $521.7 million, a 6.9% increase compared to 2021, driven by growth in both the brick-and-mortar and e-commerce businesses. Consolidated gross margin was 41.2% in 2022, a 10-basis point increase compared to 2021. Operating expenses were $591.3 million in 2022 compared to $505.6 million in 2021. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses were 27.9% in 2022 compared to 27.1% in 2021.

現在，我們直接面向消費者的業務收入為 5.217 億美元，與 2021 年相比增長 6.9%，這主要受實體店和電子商務業務增長的推動。 2022 年綜合毛利率為 41.2%，與 2021 年相比增長 10 個基點。2022 年運營費用為 5.913 億美元，而 2021 年為 5.056 億美元。佔收入的百分比，2022 年運營費用為 27.9%，而 2022 年為 27.1% 2021年。

Adjusted income for 2022 totaled $282.6 million or 15.3% of revenue compared to $261.9 million or 14% of revenue last year. Our effective tax rate for the year was 22.5% compared to 21.2% in 2021. Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited for the year was $218.3 million or $2.80 per diluted share, the highest in the company's history compared to $203.7 million or $2.50 per diluted share in 2021.

2022 年調整後收入總計 2.826 億美元，佔收入的 15.3%，而去年為 2.619 億美元，佔收入的 14%。我們當年的有效稅率為 22.5%，而 2021 年為 21.2%。最後，本年度歸屬於 Steve Madden Limited 的淨收入為 2.183 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.80 美元，為公司歷史最高水平，而 2.037 億美元或 2.50 美元2021 年每股攤薄。

Turning to the fourth quarter results. Our consolidated revenue in the fourth quarter was $470.6 million, an 18.6% decrease compared to the prior year. And as I've mentioned, we faced an extremely difficult comparison to the fourth quarter of 2021 when revenue was up 37.9% to pre-COVID in 2019. Our wholesale revenue was $308.8 million, down 24.8% compared to the prior year when wholesale revenue was up 30.8% to 2019.

轉向第四季度的結果。我們第四季度的綜合收入為 4.706 億美元，比去年同期下降 18.6%。正如我所提到的，與 2021 年第四季度相比，我們面臨著極其艱難的對比，當時 2019 年的收入比 COVID 之前增長了 37.9%。我們的批發收入為 3.088 億美元，比上一年的批發收入下降了 24.8%到 2019 年增長了 30.8%。

Wholesale Footwear revenue was $226 million, a 25.5% decrease from 2021 when wholesale footwear revenue was up 29.9% to 2019. Wholesale Accessories and Apparel revenue was $82.8 million, down 22.8% to last year when Wholesale Accessories and Apparel revenue was up 33.3% to 2019. In our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue was $159.3 million, a 3.2% decrease compared to 2021, driven by a decline in brick-and-mortar business, partially offset by a modest increase in e-commerce. We ended the year with 232 company-operated brick-and-mortar retail stores, including 66 outlets as well as six e-commerce websites and 20 company-operated concessions in international markets.

批發鞋類收入為 2.26 億美元，比 2021 年下降 25.5%，當時批發鞋類收入增長 29.9% 到 2019 年。批發配飾和服裝收入為 8280 萬美元，比去年下降 22.8%，而批發配飾和服裝收入增長 33.3% 到 2019 年2019 年。在我們的直接面向消費者的細分市場中，收入為 1.593 億美元，與 2021 年相比下降 3.2%，這是由於實體業務的下滑，部分被電子商務的適度增長所抵消。截至年底，我們在國際市場擁有 232 家公司經營的實體零售店，其中包括 66 家網點以及 6 個電子商務網站和 20 家公司經營的特許經營店。

Turning to our licensing segment. Our license and royalty income was $2.5 million in the quarter compared to $2.9 million last year. As we discussed last quarter, we've completed the wind down of our first cost business and transitioned those remaining private label customers from a buying agent model to a wholesale model. As such, we did not generate revenue in the first call segment in the fourth quarter versus approximately $400,000 in revenue in the fourth quarter of last year.

轉向我們的許可部門。本季度我們的許可和特許權使用費收入為 250 萬美元，而去年為 290 萬美元。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們已經完成了第一筆成本業務的縮減，並將那些剩餘的自有品牌客戶從採購代理模式轉變為批發模式。因此，我們沒有在第四季度的第一個呼叫部分產生收入，而去年第四季度的收入約為 400,000 美元。

Consolidated gross margin was 42.2% in the quarter, expanding 100 basis points from the prior year. Wholesale gross margin was 30.5% compared to 31.8% last year due to increased closeouts compared to the prior year when closeout activity was unusually low. Direct-to-consumer gross margin was 64% compared to 63.5% last year. The 60-basis point increase was driven by a reduction in rate expense.

本季度綜合毛利率為 42.2%，比去年同期擴大 100 個基點。批發毛利率為 30.5%，而去年為 31.8%，這是由於與上一年清倉活動異常低的情況相比，清倉增加了。直接面向消費者的毛利率為 64%，而去年為 63.5%。 60 個基點的增長是由利率費用的減少推動的。

Operating expenses were $156.5 million in the quarter compared to $151.5 million last year. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses were 33.2% in the quarter compared to 26.2% in 2021 reflects an expense deleverage on a lower revenue base and a higher penetration of DTC. Operating income for the quarter totaled $42.2 million or 9% of revenue, down from $86.9 million or 15% of revenue last year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 20.9% compared to 18.3% in 2021. Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited for the quarter was $33.7 million or $0.44 per diluted share compared to $70.4 million or $0.87 per diluted share in 2021.

本季度的運營費用為 1.565 億美元，而去年同期為 1.515 億美元。作為收入的百分比，本季度運營費用為 33.2%，而 2021 年為 26.2%，這反映了收入基數較低和 DTC 滲透率較高導致的費用去槓桿化。本季度營業收入總計 4220 萬美元，佔收入的 9%，低於去年的 8690 萬美元，佔收入的 15%。我們本季度的有效稅率為 20.9%，而 2021 年為 18.3%。最後，本季度歸屬於 Steve Madden Limited 的淨收入為 3370 萬美元或攤薄後每股收益 0.44 美元，而 2021 年為 7040 萬美元或攤薄後每股收益 0.87 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet. Our financial foundation remains strong. As of December 31, 2022, we had $289.8 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and no debt. Inventory was $228.8 million, down from $255.2 million in the prior year. Our CapEx in the quarter was $6.2 million. During the fourth quarter and full year 2022, our share repurchases totaled $36.8 million and $148.9 million, respectively, including shares acquired through the net settlement of employee stock awards.

轉到資產負債表。我們的財務基礎依然強勁。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 2.898 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資，沒有債務。庫存為 2.288 億美元，低於上年的 2.552 億美元。我們本季度的資本支出為 620 萬美元。在第四季度和 2022 年全年，我們的股票回購總額分別為 3680 萬美元和 1.489 億美元，包括通過員工股票獎勵淨額結算獲得的股票。

The company's Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. The dividend will be payable on March 24, 2023, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 10, 2023. Combining share repurchases and the dividend, we returned $214.9 million to shareholders in 2022.

公司董事會批准了每股0.21美元的季度現金股息。股息將於 2023 年 3 月 24 日支付給截至 2023 年 3 月 10 日營業結束時在冊的股東。結合股票回購和股息，我們在 2022 年向股東返還了 2.149 億美元。

Turning to our outlook. We expect revenue for 2023 to decrease 6.5% to 8% compared to 2022, and we expect diluted EPS to be in the range of $2.40 to $2.50. As I mentioned, we faced extremely tough comparisons in the first quarter of 2023, very similar to those we faced in the fourth quarter of 2022. Therefore, we expect Q1 revenue and EPS to decline year-over-year at a percentage rate similar to what we just reported for Q4.

轉向我們的前景。我們預計 2023 年的收入將比 2022 年下降 6.5% 至 8%，我們預計攤薄後每股收益將在 2.40 美元至 2.50 美元之間。正如我所提到的，我們在 2023 年第一季度面臨著極其艱難的比較，與我們在 2022 年第四季度面臨的情況非常相似。因此，我們預計第一季度收入和每股收益將以與去年同期相似的百分比下降我們剛剛報告的第四季度。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions. Debbie?

現在我想把電話轉給接線員提問。黛比？

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) First question is from Aubrey Tianello with BNP Paribas.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Aubrey Tianello。

First, wanted to see if you could possibly provide any more color on what's embedded in the 2023 revenue guide for a wholesale and DTC revenues for the year and if possible, also for the first quarter as well?

首先，想看看您是否可以提供更多有關 2023 年批發和 DTC 收入指南中嵌入的內容的顏色，如果可能的話，也可以提供第一季度的收入？

Sure. Yes. So for the full year, we're looking for wholesale to be down roughly 12% to 13% and for DTC to be up high single digits versus 2022. In terms of I think you should expect revenue declines year-over-year in line with what we just reported for Q4.

當然。是的。因此，對於全年，我們預計批發量將下降約 12% 至 13%，而 DTC 將比 2022 年高個位數增長。就我而言，你應該預計收入會同比下降與我們剛剛為第四季度報告的內容。

Okay. Great. Perfect. And then maybe on the wholesale side, on the wholesale footwear side, in particular, if you could provide any color on what you're seeing from your different customer groupings in terms of sell-through and how that's kind of evolved in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. Any particular pockets of weakness or strength to call out or maybe it's similar kind of across the board.

好的。偉大的。完美的。然後也許在批發方面，特別是在批發鞋類方面，如果你能提供任何顏色，說明你從不同的客戶群中看到的銷售率以及第一季度的演變情況與第四季度相比。任何特定的弱點或優勢都需要指出，或者它可能是全面的。

Yes. Obviously, some are better than others but generally speaking, we're seeing pretty consistent trends across channels. So, I don't think there's anything to really call out there. The challenge for us is particularly in our core brands, Steve Madden, the inventory levels in the channel, we think they're too low. We think our wholesale customers need to take some more goods in.

是的。顯然，有些比其他的要好，但總的來說，我們看到跨渠道的趨勢非常一致。所以，我認為沒有什麼可以真正說出來的。我們面臨的挑戰尤其是我們的核心品牌 Steve Madden，渠道中的庫存水平，我們認為它們太低了。我們認為我們的批發客戶需要多進一些貨。

Our inventory levels are down considerably over where they were a year ago. And you asked about sell-through. So, with much lower inventory levels, our sales out to the consumer are also lower. Good news is, if you look at the most important customers, the decline in sales is less than the decline in the stock level, which means the goods are selling through at a higher percentage rate. Hopefully, that will encourage our wholesale customers to step up and increase those inventory levels.

我們的庫存水平比一年前大幅下降。您詢問了銷售情況。因此，由於庫存水平低得多，我們對消費者的銷售額也較低。好消息是，如果您查看最重要的客戶，銷售額的下降幅度小於庫存水平的下降幅度，這意味著商品的銷售率更高。希望這將鼓勵我們的批發客戶加強並增加庫存水平。

Okay. Got it. And if I could just follow on that one more. Curious where lead times are at now if those have fully normalized and where you're at in terms of your ability to chase? And then also, as you maybe kind of alluded to, like when your wholesale partners may be ready for that as well.

好的。知道了。如果我能繼續講下去的話。好奇現在的交貨時間是否已經完全正常化，以及您在追逐能力方面所處的位置？然後，正如您可能提到的那樣，就像您的批發合作夥伴也可能準備好那樣。

Yes, that's something we're excited about. The lead times are essentially back to normal, back to pre-COVID levels, which means we're back to being able to run the model that is what we think really differentiates us, being able to test and react, utilize our speed to market capability, to react close to and in season. And so, we are prepared to chase and we're looking forward to doing that this year.

是的，這是我們感到興奮的事情。交貨時間基本上恢復正常，回到 COVID 之前的水平，這意味著我們回到了能夠運行我們認為真正讓我們與眾不同的模型，能夠測試和反應，利用我們的市場速度能力，以接近並及時做出反應。因此，我們準備追逐，我們期待著今年這樣做。

Excellent. Thanks a lot.

出色的。多謝。

Next question is from Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

Thanks for taking my questions. I get that the Q1 order pattern from wholesale is weak, but to have sales down that much for the full year, why would sales be down that much at full year at wholesale if your direct business actually grows? Have you seen a pattern like that historically?

感謝您回答我的問題。我了解到批發的第一季度訂單模式疲軟，但要使全年銷售額下降那麼多，如果您的直接業務實際增長，為什麼全年批發銷售額會下降那麼多？你在歷史上見過這樣的模式嗎？

Well, I think what we're seeing right now is a pretty big disconnect from what's happening in terms of consumer demand and what's happening with the wholesale customers ordering. That's because for the most part, our wholesale -- pretty much across the board, our wholesale customers got into a position of having more inventory than they wanted in our categories, and they were all looking to get those inventories in line. So they pulled back pretty dramatically on orders.

好吧，我認為我們現在看到的是與消費者需求和批發客戶訂購方面發生的事情之間存在很大的脫節。這是因為在大多數情況下，我們的批發——幾乎是全面的，我們的批發客戶在我們的類別中擁有比他們想要的更多的庫存，他們都希望讓這些庫存符合要求。因此，他們大幅撤回了訂單。

We felt that, obviously, in Q4, you saw that in the numbers, and we're feeling that for spring of 2023 as well so far. Has there been a pullback in consumer demand? A little bit, but the swing that we've seen and the pullback that we've seen from wholesale customers in terms of their orders has far exceeded any full back in consumer demand. That's what we're faced with in spring. We're going to start the year being down, obviously, double digits in the first half year in wholesale. We're hopeful that we can start to see an improvement in the back half, but that's how we're starting the year.

顯然，我們認為，在第四季度，您在數字中看到了這一點，而且到目前為止，我們在 2023 年春季也有這種感覺。消費需求是否出現回落？有一點，但我們看到的波動和我們從批發客戶那裡看到的訂單回落遠遠超過了消費者需求的任何回落。這就是我們在春天所面臨的。我們將從今年開始，顯然，上半年批發量下降兩位數。我們希望我們能夠開始看到後半段有所改善，但這就是我們今年開始的方式。

Got it. And historically, have you seen that kind of a spread between wholesale and DTC where I understand DTC often does better, but where DTC is up for the full year, but wholesale is down double digits.

知道了。從歷史上看，你有沒有看到批發和 DTC 之間的這種差異，我知道 DTC 通常做得更好，但 DTC 全年都在上漲，但批發卻下降了兩位數。

I'd have to look back. I can't remember. This is a pretty wide divergence. The good news about this is usually these things converge over time. And so I don't expect it to sustain like this for a long period.

我不得不回頭看看。我不記得了。這是一個相當大的分歧。關於這一點的好消息通常是這些事情會隨著時間的推移而收斂。因此，我不希望它能長期保持這種狀態。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

The next question is from Sam Poser with Williams Trading.

下一個問題來自 Williams Trading 的 Sam Poser。

A couple of questions. Number one, within the guidance within the guidance, when you think about wholesale, I would assume you're thinking about wholesale data around, what, 20% in the first half of the year and then less and up fractionally in the back half? Is that a good way to think about it?

幾個問題。第一，在指南中的指南中，當你考慮批發時，我假設你在考慮批發數據，今年上半年是 20%，然後在下半年略有上升？這是一個很好的思考方式嗎？

Round numbers... You're in the ballpark. Yes.

整數......你在球場上。是的。

And then with the inventory, how if everything -- if all things being equal, you were doing the same volume today as you were a year ago, but the penetration of DTC change, would you -- what kind of -- how much more inventory do you need to have? Because you guys used to run carrying about 8 forward weeks of supply of goods and now you're running at around 10%. Is that really the -- and with the speed back to normal, is that just because you need to -- the slightly less fast turn is because you just need to carry more inventory to support the direct-to-consumer business than you did prior in 2019?

然後有了庫存，如果一切——如果一切都相同，你今天的銷量和一年前一樣，但 DTC 的滲透率發生變化，你會——什麼樣的——多多少您需要庫存嗎？因為你們過去常常攜帶大約 8 週的貨物供應，而現在你們的供應量約為 10%。這真的是 - 隨著速度恢復正常，僅僅是因為你需要 - 速度稍微慢一些是因為你只需要攜帶比以前更多的庫存來支持直接面向消費者的業務2019年？

Yes, that's right. Wholesale turns about close to 3x as fast as DTC. So as we've increased this DTC penetration by about 700 basis points compared to pre-COVID, that is going to slow down the overall turn.

恩，那就對了。批發的周轉速度是 DTC 的近 3 倍。因此，與 COVID 之前相比，我們將 DTC 滲透率提高了約 700 個基點，這將減緩整體轉變。

And then lastly, are you taking into account that the wholesalers will improve their app web business with you? Or are you sort of taking it? Is the guidance reflecting what you're seeing today?

最後，您是否考慮到批發商會與您一起改善他們的應用程序網絡業務？或者你有點接受它？該指南是否反映了您今天所看到的情況？

The guidance mostly reflects what we're seeing today. If we get into chase mode and the wholesale customers are identified some trends and really want to go after really want to chase business, then that would be potential upside here.

該指南主要反映了我們今天所看到的情況。如果我們進入追逐模式並且批發客戶確定了一些趨勢並且真的想要追逐真的想要追逐業務，那麼這將是潛在的上漲空間。

All right. Well, have a very good year, and we'll speak soon. Thanks.

好的。好吧，祝你今年過得愉快，我們很快就會談。謝謝。

Next question is from Tom Nikic with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Tom Nikic。

I guess, how should we think about margins for this year? Is there any way we should think about gross margin versus SG&A, both for the full year and for Q1?

我想，我們應該如何考慮今年的利潤率？我們是否應該考慮全年和第一季度的毛利率與 SG&A 的關係？

Sure. In terms of gross margin, we think we can see a nice improvement overall. We're targeting around a 43.5% gross margin for the year. That's up about 230 basis points. A little over half of that is just the mix of DTC increasing in penetration. And then there's some number of puts and takes and a number of factors, but most of the biggest factor in the remainder of the increase is the freight benefit that we'll get from the lower ocean rates.

當然。就毛利率而言，我們認為整體上可以看到不錯的改善。我們今年的目標毛利率約為 43.5%。這增加了大約 230 個基點。其中略多於一半的只是 DTC 滲透率增加的組合。然後有一些看跌期權和一些因素，但在其餘增長中最重要的因素是我們將從較低的海運費率中獲得的運費收益。

In terms of SG&A, obviously, with the sales decline that we're having and this mix shift towards DTC, there's going to be deleveraged there. Overall, if you're looking at operating margins, the guidance implies sort of 12, 12, and change.

就 SG&A 而言，顯然，隨著我們的銷售額下降以及這種組合向 DTC 的轉變，那裡將會去槓桿化。總體而言，如果您正在查看營業利潤率，則該指導意味著 12、12 和變化。

Got it. And if I could follow up earlier on the DTC versus wholesale growth. So I think you said DTC up high singles for this year. Does that include a contribution from the conversion of the Middle East distributor to a subsidiary? I think you said you've got 20-ish stores in the region. Does that contribute to the high single-digit growth that you're seeing in DTC?

知道了。如果我能更早地跟進 DTC 與批發增長的對比。所以我想你說 DTC 今年是高單曲。這是否包括中東分銷商轉換為子公司的貢獻？我想你說過你在該地區有 20 家左右的商店。這是否有助於您在 DTC 中看到的高個位數增長？

Yes, it does. It does. There's comp growth as well, but that is included there.

是的，它確實。確實如此。薪酬也有增長，但也包括在內。

Okay. Thanks very much and best of luck this year.

好的。非常感謝，祝你今年好運。

The next question is from Jay Sole with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

Great. This is Mauricio Serna on behalf of Jay Sole. I wanted to ask, when you're talking about the first quarter guidance and you're expecting a similar decline as in the 4Q, does that imply also DTC will be down? Or what are you seeing there in terms of the DTC business?

偉大的。我是 Jay Sole 的 Mauricio Serna。我想問，當你談論第一季度的指導時，你預計第四季度會出現類似的下降，這是否意味著 DTC 也會下降？或者您在 DTC 業務方面看到了什麼？

And then when we're thinking about the gross margin for the year, does that expansion over 200 basis points, does that include any negative impact from higher promotions? Or how are you thinking about promotions? And how is that baked into the gross margin guidance? Thank you so much.

然後當我們考慮今年的毛利率時，是否會擴大超過 200 個基點，這是否包括更高促銷的任何負面影響？或者您如何考慮促銷活動？這如何融入毛利率指導中？太感謝了。

Sure. Yes. In terms of DTC in Q1, yes, I think it should be pretty similar to what you saw in the back half of 2022. Q3, we were down 4%. Q4, down 3% should be in that range in Q1. In terms of the promotions, we've built in more promotional activity in the first half. Remember, last year, we still had an unusually low level of promo activity. But we actually think that we can have less promotional activity in the back half or at least particularly in Q4. So for the year, probably pretty similar overall.

當然。是的。就第一季度的 DTC 而言，是的，我認為它應該與您在 2022 年下半年看到的非常相似。第三季度，我們下降了 4%。第 4 季度，下降 3% 應該在第 1 季度的這個範圍內。在促銷方面，我們在上半年進行了更多的促銷活動。請記住，去年，我們的促銷活動水平仍然異常低。但我們實際上認為我們可以在後半段或至少在第四季度減少促銷活動。因此，就這一年而言，總體上可能非常相似。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Next question is from Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I first wanted to ask a follow-up on the wholesale business. I was wondering if you've seen any change or acceleration in point-of-sale trends at your partners' year-to-date, so in 2023?

Tracy Kogan 代替了 Paul。我首先想問一下批發業務的後續情況。我想知道您是否看到合作夥伴年初至今（即 2023 年）的銷售點趨勢有任何變化或加速？

And then my second question is on your international opportunities. I was wondering what you're expecting for the international business this year in terms of growth? And what regions you feel longer term, you have the biggest opportunities in? And also where you might have opportunities to convert like you did in the Middle East?

然後我的第二個問題是關於你的國際機會。我想知道您對今年國際業務的增長有何期望？從長遠來看，您認為哪些地區擁有最大的機會？還有你可能有機會像在中東那樣皈依的地方？

Sure. Yes, it's still early. In terms of the POS trends this year. We've got some items that we're very excited about for spring. Some early selling on those items. That is pretty darn good. We're very excited about some -- we've got some great flat sandals, I think better flat sandal early selling than we've had the last few years. Loafers continue to do well. We're doing well with some novelty feathers, butterflies, flowers, et cetera. So we've got some things that we're excited about. But in the wholesale channel, we're just now getting those reads.

當然。是的，現在還早。就今年的POS趨勢而言。我們有一些我們對春天感到非常興奮的項目。一些早期銷售這些物品。這真是太好了。我們對一些產品感到非常興奮——我們有一些很棒的平底涼鞋，我認為平底涼鞋的早期銷售比過去幾年更好。樂福鞋繼續表現出色。我們在一些新奇的羽毛、蝴蝶、花朵等方面做得很好。所以我們有一些讓我們興奮的事情。但在批發渠道中，我們剛剛獲得這些閱讀。

One of the challenges this year was that the wholesale customers did not want to take in the spring goods as early as they have in prior years. We talked about getting back to this test and react and our ability to chase. But typically, by now, we would already be chasing tough for second quarter because we would have had read say a few weeks ago, a month ago and already been reacting to those. But because our wholesale customers took the goods in a little bit later, we're just now starting to see those reads. So it is still early. But overall, what we're seeing in our -- certainly in our direct-to-consumer channels and then the very early read is some good sell-through on the spring items.

今年的挑戰之一是批發客戶不想像往年那樣儘早接收春季商品。我們談到了回到這個測試和反應以及我們追逐的能力。但通常情況下，到現在為止，我們已經在第二季度追逐強硬，因為我們會在幾週前、一個月前讀到並已經對這些做出反應。但由於我們的批發客戶進貨時間稍晚，我們才剛剛開始看到這些讀數。所以現在還早。但總的來說，我們在我們的 - 當然是在我們直接面向消費者的渠道中看到的，然後是早期閱讀的是春季商品的一些良好銷售。

In terms of international, we talked about in the formal remarks, that's been the fastest-growing part of the business over the last several years. We're still really pleased with the momentum that we see there despite the headwinds this year and what we're seeing overall, we still think that business can be a double-digit grower for us in 2023. Obviously, we're not going to see the 50-plus percent growth that we saw last year but I do think we can see double digits.

在國際方面，我們在正式發言中談到，這是過去幾年業務增長最快的部分。儘管今年遇到逆風，但我們仍然對在那裡看到的勢頭感到非常滿意，而且我們總體上看到的情況是，我們仍然認為 2023 年我們的業務可以實現兩位數的增長。顯然，我們不會看到我們去年看到的 50% 以上的增長，但我確實認為我們可以看到兩位數。

In terms of regions, it's still, I think, the EMEA region that we're the most excited about. That's been the driver of growth for us, over the last several years. I think even in the next few years, that's where we see the biggest opportunity. We've just got tremendous momentum in Europe. Obviously, we're aware of some of the macro headwinds in that region, but our business continues to chug along there, and we think we're going to grow there again this year. And then also included there in that region is the new Middle East JV that we talked about that we're very excited about. And even some smaller businesses that we have really nice momentum and we're doing great in Israel and South Africa, et cetera.

就地區而言，我認為它仍然是我們最興奮的 EMEA 地區。在過去的幾年裡，這一直是我們增長的動力。我認為即使在未來幾年，這也是我們看到最大機會的地方。我們剛剛在歐洲獲得了巨大的發展勢頭。顯然，我們意識到該地區的一些宏觀逆風，但我們的業務繼續在那裡突飛猛進，我們認為今年我們將在那裡再次增長。然後該地區還包括我們談到的新中東合資企業，我們對此感到非常興奮。甚至一些規模較小的企業，我們的勢頭非常好，我們在以色列和南非等地做得很好。

In terms of other regions that we may convert, there's a couple that we have our eye on, not ready to talk publicly about what those are because we don't know what direction those discussions will go. But I think there's potential for us to do at least one more in a smaller region in 2023.

就我們可能轉換的其他地區而言，有幾個我們正在關注，但不准備公開談論這些是什麼，因為我們不知道這些討論將走向何方。但我認為我們有可能在 2023 年在更小的地區至少再做一次。

The next question is from Dana Telsey with Telsey Group.

下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about the wholesale business and parsing it apart, whether it's between discounters or department stores, whatever it may be, as you see the year progress, who would recover first? Is there any particular channel or category that typically places orders first? And what are you looking for to see the improvement in wholesale?

當您考慮批發業務並將其分解時，無論是在折扣店還是百貨商店之間，無論它是什麼，正如您看到的年度進展，誰會首先恢復？是否有任何特定渠道或類別通常首先下訂單？您希望看到批發的改善是什麼？

It's really our first tier customers that we would look to recover first. By that, I mean the department stores, the peer play e-commerce players, et cetera. Those are the folks that typically when we get strong selling, we can chase goods for. Some of the other businesses are planned out further. If you think about our mass merchants, for instance, we don't really chase in the same way in that tier of distribution. But that first tier is where we'll be looking to chase into hot-selling items.

我們希望首先恢復的確實是我們的一線客戶。我指的是百貨公司、電子商務玩家等。那些人通常是當我們獲得強勁銷售時，我們可以追逐商品。其他一些業務正在進一步規劃中。例如，如果你想想我們的大眾商家，我們在那個分銷層級並沒有真正以同樣的方式追逐。但第一層是我們尋求追逐熱銷商品的地方。

And then just through the fourth quarter, what's your view of the health of the consumer? Was there any difference by region? It seemed like one of the changes was e-commerce had a modest increase and brick-and-mortar slowed down a little bit. Anything to note in terms of the health of the consumer from what you saw?

然後就在第四季度，您對消費者的健康狀況有何看法？地區有區別嗎？其中一個變化似乎是電子商務適度增長，而實體店則略有放緩。從你所看到的消費者健康方面有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Look, as I alluded to earlier, certainly the consumer -- if you think about consumer demand, it's not as strong as it was a year ago. We have seen some slowdown in consumer demand and discretionary spending on our categories. But that's not our primary issue right now. That slowdown has been pretty modest. You've seen our DTC has been running down 3%-ish. It's really this pullback from the wholesale customers, which has been much more dramatic and it's related to them and their efforts to get their own inventories in line.

看，正如我之前提到的，當然是消費者——如果你考慮消費者需求，它並不像一年前那麼強勁。我們已經看到消費者需求和我們類別的可自由支配支出有所放緩。但這不是我們現在的主要問題。這種放緩是相當溫和的。您已經看到我們的 DTC 下降了 3% 左右。這真的是批發客戶的這種回調，這種回調更為顯著，這與他們以及他們為使自己的庫存保持一致而做出的努力有關。

In terms of -- you asked about regions. If you look at, for instance, our comp store sales, I mean, the strongest region for us in comps has been New York City, but that's really just a function of -- that was the latest that you recover from COVID. And so the comparisons there are easiest. So I don't think there's much really to call out there other than that.

就——你問的是地區。例如，如果你看一下我們的 comp 商店銷售，我的意思是，我們在 comp 中最強勁的地區是紐約市，但這實際上只是一個功能——這是你從 COVID 中恢復過來的最新地區。因此那裡的比較是最簡單的。因此，我認為除此之外沒有什麼真正值得大聲疾呼的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next, I have a follow-up question from Sam Poser.

接下來，我有一個來自 Sam Poser 的後續問題。

Just a follow up on the direct-to-consumer business. In the quarter compared to pre-COVID, can you tell us what your store -- like how your store and your digital revenue was in the quarter versus Q4 '19?

只是跟進直接面向消費者的業務。在本季度與 COVID 之前相比，您能告訴我們您的商店是什麼——比如您的商店和您的數字收入在本季度與 19 年第四季度相比如何？

Yes. I can tell you, we comped up 12% in bricks-and-mortar. Digital, I don't have the number in front of me, but it's up much more dramatically than that. As you know, for the year, I think the number was 192%. I think that's what we said. I don't know if the Q4 was that strong, but it was very -- it was up significantly from Q4 '19.

是的。我可以告訴你，我們在實體店的收入增加了 12%。數字，我沒有我面前的數字，但它的上升幅度遠不止於此。如您所知，我認為這一年的數字是 192%。我想我們就是這麼說的。我不知道第四季度是否那麼強勁，但它非常 - 它比 19 年第四季度顯著上升。

So is this a situation where the -- during 2021 when there was the stimulus and everything around that generated a lot of direct-to-consumer business, especially e-commerce for you, you've been able to retain a good bunch of that, but you have more customers than you did prior in 2019. And so when you're talking about the weakening consumer, arguably for you, the consumer right now is significantly stronger than they were pre-COVID but 2021 was conflated for many different reasons.

那麼，在這種情況下，在 2021 年期間，刺激措施和周圍的一切都產生了大量直接面向消費者的業務，尤其是對您來說是電子商務，您能夠保留其中的大量業務，但你的客戶比 2019 年之前多。因此，當你談論消費者疲軟時，可以說對你來說，現在的消費者比 COVID 之前要強得多，但 2021 年由於許多不同的原因而被混為一談.

Is that a fair -- is that fair? Because I don't know -- I can't wrap my arms around the consumers being weak. I wrap myself around a lot of people over a lot of retailers specifically overestimated the momentum coming out of 2021 and caused a lot of that caused havoc with 2022.

這公平嗎——公平嗎？因為我不知道——我不能擁抱弱勢的消費者。我讓很多人都知道很多零售商特別高估了 2021 年的勢頭，並造成了很多對 2022 年造成嚴重破壞的勢頭。

Yes. My comments about some softening in consumer demand were in comparison to the prior year. And to your point, the prior year was a pretty special moment because we had tremendous pent-up demand. We had consumers with a lot of money in their pockets due to stimulus payments, and there were a lot of -- it was a lot of good things happening. We had some supply chain issues, which meant there was a lack of goods out there and so very little discounting, et cetera. So we were comparing against a pretty special time. We're a little bit softer than that point. But to your point, overall, a DTC business that's much bigger and much stronger than it was pre-COVID.

是的。與去年相比，我對消費者需求有所疲軟的評論。就你的觀點而言，前一年是一個非常特殊的時刻，因為我們有巨大的被壓抑的需求。由於刺激付款，我們的消費者口袋裡有很多錢，而且有很多 - 發生了很多好事。我們遇到了一些供應鏈問題，這意味著那裡缺少商品，因此折扣很少，等等。所以我們正在與一個非常特殊的時間進行比較。我們比那一點要軟一點。但就你的觀點而言，總的來說，DTC 業務比 COVID 之前更大、更強大。

And then just lastly, back to where the previous one for with the question, and you mentioned it, your wholesale sell-through rates are strong. Most of these big retailers are overstocked in our overstocked footwear vendors and that are other than yourself as well as in other categories other than yourself, which is precluding the fill-in orders as they work to liquidate those goods. I mean that seems to be what's going on. Is that what's going on here?

最後，回到上一個問題的地方，你提到過，你的批發銷售率很高。這些大型零售商中的大多數在我們庫存積壓的鞋類供應商中庫存過多，除了您自己以外，還有您以外的其他類別，這排除了在他們努力清算這些商品時的補貨訂單。我的意思是這似乎是正在發生的事情。這就是這裡發生的事情嗎？

Yes. I think you've summed it up. Yes.

是的。我想你已經總結了。是的。

All right. Have a great year. Thanks very much.

好的。祝你度過美好的一年。非常感謝。

Thanks, Sam.

謝謝，山姆。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ed Rosenthal for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給埃德·羅森塔爾，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning, and have a great day. We look forward to speaking with you on the next call.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們，祝你有美好的一天。我們期待在下次通話中與您交談。

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。