Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2022 Steven Madden Limited Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第二季度 Steven Madden 有限收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms. Danielle McCoy, VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，企業發展和投資者關係副總裁 Danielle McCoy 女士。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our second quarter 2022 earnings call and webcast.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議和網絡直播。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our press release issued earlier today and filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們隨後的評論（包括對您的問題的回答）包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果大不相同的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中描述的事項以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務，如果有的話，這些前瞻性陳述可能要等到我們的下一個季度財報電話會議才會更新。

The financial results discussed on today's call are on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release. Joining me on the call today is Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Unfortunately, Zine Mazouzi, Chief Financial Officer, is under the weather, recovering from COVID and is unable to join.

除非另有說明，否則今天電話會議上討論的財務結果是經過調整的。我們的收益發布中包含與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Ed Rosenfeld。不幸的是，首席財務官 Zine Mazouzi 身體不適，正在從 COVID 中恢復，無法加入。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ed。

Thanks, Danielle, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Steve Madden's second quarter 2022 results.

謝謝，丹妮爾，大家早上好，感謝您加入我們，回顧史蒂夫·馬登 2022 年第二季度的業績。

We delivered strong results in the second quarter with revenue increasing 35% and diluted EPS increasing 31% compared to the prior year. While macro pressures intensified during the quarter, our team remains laser-focused on executing our strategy, combining outstanding product and effective marketing to create closer connections with our consumers, thereby enabling our four key business drivers. One, driving our direct-to-consumer business, led by digital. Two, expanding in categories outside of footwear like handbags and apparel. Three, growing in international markets. And four, strengthening our core U.S. wholesale footwear business.

我們在第二季度取得了強勁的業績，與去年相比，收入增長了 35%，攤薄後每股收益增長了 31%。儘管本季度宏觀壓力加劇，但我們的團隊仍然專注於執行我們的戰略，將出色的產品和有效的營銷相結合，以與我們的消費者建立更緊密的聯繫，從而實現我們的四個關鍵業務驅動力。一是推動我們以數字為主導的直接面向消費者的業務。第二，擴大鞋類以外的品類，如手袋和服裝。三、在國際市場上不斷壯大。第四，加強我們的核心美國批發鞋類業務。

Our strong execution against these initiatives drove above-plan performance in the second quarter in each of our primary business segments. In wholesale footwear, revenue increased 47% compared to the prior year. Steve Madden was the largest contributor to growth, with strong gains across women's, men's and kids followed by Dolce Vita, which continues to have exceptional momentum and grew more than 150% compared to the prior year.

我們對這些舉措的有力執行推動了我們每個主要業務部門在第二季度的超出計劃的業績。在批發鞋類方面，收入比去年增長了 47%。 Steve Madden 是增長的最大貢獻者，女性、男性和兒童的強勁增長其次是 Dolce Vita，繼續保持非凡的勢頭，與上一年相比增長超過 150%。

In our wholesale accessories and apparel segment, revenue grew 65% compared to the prior year, driven by robust gains in Steve Madden handbags, BB Dakota Steve Madden apparel and private label accessories. And in direct-to-consumer, revenue increased 2%, a strong result considering it came on top of the phenomenal growth from a year ago when our DTC business benefited from pent-up demand and stimulus checks and increased revenues 63% over pre-COVID second quarter 2019.

在我們的批發配飾和服裝部門，收入同比增長 65%，這得益於 Steve Madden 手袋、BB Dakota Steve Madden 服裝和自有品牌配飾的強勁增長。在直接面向消費者方面，收入增長了 2%，這是一個強勁的結果，因為它是在一年前的驚人增長之上，當時我們的 DTC 業務受益於被壓抑的需求和刺激檢查，收入比前一年增長了 63% COVID 2019 年第二季度。

Finally, across each of these segments, we delivered robust growth in international markets. International revenue increased 82% versus the second quarter of 2021, driven by particularly strong performance in our directly-owned subsidiary markets, Canada, Mexico and Europe. Overall, international represented 15% of our total revenue, up from 11% a year ago and a new quarterly high.

最後，在這些細分市場中，我們在國際市場實現了強勁增長。國際收入與 2021 年第二季度相比增長了 82%，這得益於我們在加拿大、墨西哥和歐洲的直屬子公司市場的特別強勁表現。總體而言，國際業務占我們總收入的 15%，高於一年前的 11%，創下季度新高。

So overall, we were very pleased with our performance in the second quarter. That said, macro conditions deteriorated during the quarter and we did see consumer demand and sales trends moderate beginning in June, which has continued into July. Given these macro pressures, the near-term outlook has become more uncertain and we are taking a cautious approach to managing our business in the back half.

所以總的來說，我們對第二季度的表現非常滿意。也就是說，本季度宏觀狀況惡化，我們確實看到消費者需求和銷售趨勢從 6 月開始放緩，並一直持續到 7 月。鑑於這些宏觀壓力，近期前景變得更加不確定，我們正在採取謹慎的態度來管理我們的後半部業務。

Looking out further, however, we remain as confident as ever that by leveraging our core strengths, our people, brands and business model and executing on our strategy, we can drive growth and create significant value for our stakeholders over the long-term.

然而，展望未來，我們一如既往地充滿信心，通過利用我們的核心優勢、我們的員工、品牌和商業模式並執行我們的戰略，我們可以推動增長並為我們的利益相關者長期創造重大價值。

Now I'll turn it over to Danielle to review our second quarter financial results in more detail and provide our outlook for the remainder of the year.

現在我將把它交給丹妮爾，以更詳細地審查我們第二季度的財務業績，並提供我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。

Thanks, Ed. Our consolidated revenue in the second quarter was $535 million, a 34.5% increase compared to 2021. Our wholesale revenue was $397.1 million, up 51.5% compared to the prior year. Wholesale footwear revenue was $291.4 million, a 47.1% increase from 2021, driven by strong performance in our flagship brand, Steve Madden, as well as in Dolce Vita, Anne Klein, Betsey Johnson and private label.

謝謝，埃德。我們第二季度的綜合收入為 5.35 億美元，比 2021 年增長 34.5%。我們的批發收入為 3.971 億美元，比去年同期增長 51.5%。鞋類批發收入為 2.914 億美元，比 2021 年增長 47.1%，這得益於我們的旗艦品牌 Steve Madden 以及 Dolce Vita、Anne Klein、Betsey Johnson 和自有品牌的強勁表現。

International wholesale footwear revenue grew more than 60% versus the prior year. Wholesale accessories and apparel revenue was $105.7 million, up 65.2% to last year. The growth was driven primarily by strong gains in Steve Madden and private label handbags as well as in our apparel business, which recorded year-over-year growth of more than 100% for the third consecutive quarter.

國際鞋類批發收入同比增長 60% 以上。批發配飾和服裝收入為 1.057 億美元，比去年增長 65.2%。這一增長主要得益於史蒂夫·馬登（Steve Madden）和自有品牌手袋以及我們的服裝業務的強勁增長，該業務連續第三個季度同比增長超過 100%。

Q2 also benefited from a pull forward of deliveries from Q3, particularly in private label. In our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue was $135.5 million, a 2.2% increase compared to 2021. As Ed mentioned, we had an extremely tough comparison in Q2 2021 due to the benefit from stimulus and pent-up demand. And as such, we were pleased to exceed last year's direct-to-consumer revenue in the quarter. Compared to pre-COVID second quarter of 2019, direct-to-consumer revenue was up 66.4%. We ended the quarter with 213 brick and mortar retail stores, including 66 outlets as well as 6 e-commerce sites and 19 company-operated concessions in international markets.

第二季度也受益於第三季度交付量的提前，尤其是自有品牌。在我們的直接面向消費者部門，收入為 1.355 億美元，與 2021 年相比增長 2.2%。正如 Ed 所說，由於刺激措施和被壓抑的需求帶來的好處，我們在 2021 年第二季度進行了極其艱難的比較。因此，我們很高興在本季度超過了去年的直接面向消費者的收入。與 COVID 之前的 2019 年第二季度相比，直接面向消費者的收入增長了 66.4%。我們在本季度末擁有 213 家實體零售店，其中包括 66 家網點以及 6 個電子商務網站和 19 家公司在國際市場上經營的特許經營店。

Turning to our Licensing and First Cost segments. Our Licensing royalty income was $2.2 million in the quarter compared to $2.8 million last year. First Cost commission income was $0.1 million in Q2 or $0.3 million last year. Consolidated gross margin was 40.7% in the quarter compared to 42.7% in the prior year. The decline was entirely due to a mix to wholesale from direct-to-consumer as we reported year-over-year increases in each of wholesale and direct-to-consumer. Wholesale gross margin was 31.6%, expanding 100 basis points compared to last year, driven by margin improvement in wholesale footwear. Direct-to-consumer gross margin was 66.4%, an increase of 100 basis points compared to the prior year, driven by margin improvement in international markets.

轉向我們的許可和首次成本部分。本季度我們的許可版稅收入為 220 萬美元，而去年為 280 萬美元。第 2 季度第一成本佣金收入為 10 萬美元，去年為 30 萬美元。本季度綜合毛利率為 40.7%，而去年同期為 42.7%。下降完全是由於從直接面向消費者的批發到批發的混合，因為我們報告了批發和直接面向消費者的同比增長。批發毛利率為 31.6%，較去年增加 100 個基點，主要受批發鞋類毛利率改善的推動。在國際市場利潤率改善的推動下，直接面向消費者的毛利率為 66.4%，比上年增加 100 個基點。

Operating expenses were $150.8 million in the quarter compared to $119.1 million last year. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses were 28.2% in the quarter, an 170 basis points improvement compared to 2021. Operating income for the quarter totaled $67 million or 12.5% of revenue compared to $51 million or 12.8% of revenue last year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 23.5% compared to 20.7% in 2021, primarily due to the decreased discrete benefit from the exercising and vesting of share-based awards.

本季度的運營費用為 1.508 億美元，而去年為 1.191 億美元。本季度營業費用佔收入的百分比為 28.2%，比 2021 年提高 170 個基點。本季度營業收入總計 6700 萬美元，佔收入的 12.5%，而去年同期為 5100 萬美元，佔收入的 12.8%。我們本季度的有效稅率為 23.5%，而 2021 年為 20.7%，主要是由於股份獎勵的行使和歸屬帶來的離散收益減少。

Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited for the quarter was $49.8 million or $0.63 per diluted share, up from $39.7 million or $0.48 per diluted share in 2021.

最後，本季度歸屬於 Steve Madden Limited 的淨收入為 4980 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.63 美元，高於 2021 年的 3970 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.48 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet. Our financial foundation remains very strong. As of June 30, 2022, we had $180.5 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and no debt. Inventory totaled $306.5 million compared to $125.5 million last year and $146.1 million in 2019. Inventory continues to be higher than historical levels as a result of our need to place production orders earlier due to supply chain disruption and longer transit times. We built an average of an additional 40 days of transit time into our production schedules, and as a result, have approximately 40 days more supply of inventory than we did pre-COVID.

轉移到資產負債表。我們的財務基礎仍然非常牢固。截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日，我們擁有 1.805 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資，沒有債務。庫存總額為 3.065 億美元，而去年為 1.255 億美元，2019 年為 1.461 億美元。由於供應鏈中斷和較長的運輸時間，我們需要更早下達生產訂單，因此庫存繼續高於歷史水平。我們在生產計劃中平均增加了 40 天的運輸時間，因此，庫存供應量比 COVID 之前多約 40 天。

We remain comfortable with the amount and composition of our inventory and our ability to meet our customers ship windows. We began seeing improvement in the supply chain and a reduction in transit times in the second quarter. And as we return to a more normalized way of operating, we expect inventory levels to come down meaningfully beginning in Q4. Our CapEx in the quarter was $1.7 million.

我們對庫存的數量和構成以及滿足客戶出貨窗口的能力感到滿意。我們在第二季度開始看到供應鏈的改善和運輸時間的減少。隨著我們恢復更正常的運營方式，我們預計庫存水平將從第四季度開始顯著下降。我們本季度的資本支出為 170 萬美元。

During the quarter, we repurchased $34.6 million of the company's common stock, which includes shares acquired through the net settlement of employee stock awards. The company's board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. The dividend will be payable on September 26, 2022 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 16, 2022.

本季度，我們回購了 3460 萬美元的公司普通股，其中包括通過員工股票獎勵淨額結算獲得的股票。公司董事會批准了每股 0.21 美元的季度現金股息。股息將於 2022 年 9 月 26 日支付給截至 2022 年 9 月 16 日營業結束時在冊的股東。

Turning to our outlook. We are reiterating our full year guidance. We continue to expect revenue to increase 13% to 16% compared to 2021 and diluted EPS in the range of $2.90 to $3.00.

轉向我們的前景。我們重申我們的全年指導。我們繼續預計收入將比 2021 年增長 13% 至 16%，攤薄後每股收益將在 2.90 美元至 3.00 美元之間。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions. Operator?

現在我想把電話轉給接線員提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Camilo Lyon of BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Camilo Lyon。

Nice job on the quarter in an increasingly challenging environment. Ed, you talked about it in your prepared remarks, starting to have seen a deceleration in your business in June, that's continued into July. I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color around that comment? Maybe talk about is there a disparate level of activity by your wholesale partners if we think about the higher income-exposed partners or the lower income-exposed partners, where you're seeing the pullback unfold? That's my first question.

在日益具有挑戰性的環境中，本季度表現出色。 Ed，您在準備好的講話中談到了它，您的業務在 6 月份開始出現減速，這種情況一直持續到 7 月份。我想知道您是否可以在該評論周圍提供更多色彩？如果我們考慮收入較高的合作夥伴或收入較低的合作夥伴，也許會談論您的批發合作夥伴的活動水平是否不同，您看到回調在哪裡展開？這是我的第一個問題。

Sure. The pullback that we saw that began in June, I think we've really seen that across channels. We saw that in our DTC channels and we saw it to some degree in our wholesale sell-throughs. I want to make the point that we were starting with essentially through May phenomenal performance and there was a slowdown, and that took us to a level that I would still characterize as pretty darn good.

當然。我們看到的回調始於 6 月，我認為我們確實已經跨渠道看到了這一點。我們在 DTC 渠道中看到了這一點，我們在某種程度上在批發銷售中看到了這一點。我想說的是，我們從 5 月開始的驚人表現開始，並且出現了放緩，這將我們帶到了一個我仍然認為非常好的水平。

So I can give you some color on our DTC channel, maybe just to give you an indication of what we're talking about. So through May, if you look at our DTC comp sales including bricks and mortar and digital versus '19, we were running over 70% comp to '19 and that was for Q1 and also through the first two months of Q2. And then June and July, that number has looked more like 57%. So again, meaningful slowdown, but 57% comp to '19, nothing to be ashamed of. And now there's a lot of brands that would probably like to be seeing those kind of numbers.

所以我可以在我們的 DTC 頻道上給你一些顏色，也許只是為了讓你知道我們在談論什麼。所以到 5 月，如果你看看我們的 DTC 銷售，包括實體和數字與 19 年相比，到 19 年我們的銷售量超過了 70%，這是第一季度以及第二季度的前兩個月。然後在 6 月和 7 月，這個數字看起來更像是 57%。再說一次，有意義的放緩，但與 19 年相比下降了 57%，沒什麼可羞恥的。現在有很多品牌可能希望看到這樣的數字。

So in terms of your question about high-end versus low-end, again, I think the slowdown has really been somewhat across the board. If we look at how the wholesale customers are reacting to that, we are seeing them pull back and get more cautious, incrementally more cautious about how they're approaching forward orders, particularly for Q4. And I would say that on a percentage basis, we have seen more of a pullback from the folks that target the low-income consumers, but we have seen virtually all the customers get more cautious.

因此，就您關於高端與低端的問題而言，我認為經濟放緩確實有點全面。如果我們看看批發客戶對此的反應，我們會看到他們退縮並變得更加謹慎，對他們如何處理遠期訂單越來越謹慎，尤其是在第四季度。我想說的是，從百分比來看，我們已經看到針對低收入消費者的人們的回落更多，但我們幾乎看到所有客戶都變得更加謹慎。

I think you just said at the end that you're seeing more of a pullback on the fourth quarter order pattern. Maybe just shifting what you're starting to see, if anything, on the trend side. I'd be curious to see what you're seeing from the demand perspective in that regard. Any the early read you're getting as we head into the back half? And does your inventory position today given the improvement in supply chain lead times that you're seeing, does that give you a better ability to chase or fill demand should -- or you should -- once demand should some of the pullback in the fourth quarter be an overshoot to the downside?

我想你剛剛在最後說你看到了第四季度訂單模式的更多回調。也許只是在趨勢方面改變你開始看到的東西，如果有的話。我很想知道你在這方面從需求的角度看到了什麼。當我們進入後半部分時，您有任何早期閱讀嗎？鑑於您所看到的供應鏈交貨時間的改善，您今天的庫存狀況是否讓您有更好的能力來追逐或滿足需求應該——或者你應該——一旦需求在第四季度出現一些回落季度是否會超調下行？

So in terms of fashion trends, which I believe was the first part of your question, we don't like to talk this early in the season too much about what we're seeing prospectively because it's for obvious competitive reasons. But I think one piece of color I can give you is that boots and booties, we are seeing good early reads on boots and booties. That's a category that's performing better at this time of the year than it did a year ago. The penetration, for instance, in our DTC channels is significantly higher than it was a year ago at this time. And so we are optimistic about that category.

因此，就時尚趨勢而言，我認為這是您問題的第一部分，我們不喜歡在本季初期過多談論我們的預期，因為這是出於明顯的競爭原因。但我認為我可以給你的一種顏色是靴子和短靴，我們看到靴子和短靴的早期讀物很好。與一年前相比，這一類別在一年中的這個時候表現得更好。例如，我們 DTC 渠道的滲透率明顯高於一年前的這個時候。因此，我們對該類別持樂觀態度。

And then in terms of your second question, yes, we have seen a pretty meaningful improvement in transit times recently. As an example, from China, as you know, we were seeing 70-day transit times earlier this year. And more recently, we're looking at more like 45 days from China. So still not back to the 30 or so that we were at pre-COVID or frankly sometimes it was more like three weeks, 21 days, but still meaningful improvement.

然後就你的第二個問題而言，是的，我們最近看到運輸時間有了相當顯著的改善。舉個例子，如你所知，在中國，我們在今年早些時候看到了 70 天的運輸時間。最近，我們正在尋找來自中國的 45 天。所以仍然沒有回到我們在 COVID 之前的 30 歲左右，或者坦率地說，有時更像是三週零二十一天，但仍然是有意義的改進。

So that's going to give us a better ability to chase going forward. And of course, as you know, in fall, we also do quite a bit out of Mexico, which means we have a better ability to chase those products. However, we're still not back to our normal speed-to-market. And so I think it will really be into 2023 before we can chase the way that we're accustomed to.

因此，這將賦予我們更好的追逐前進的能力。當然，如你所知，秋天，我們在墨西哥以外的地方也做了很多，這意味著我們有更好的能力去追逐這些產品。但是，我們仍未恢復正常的上市速度。因此，我認為真正要到 2023 年，我們才能按照我們習慣的方式進行追逐。

Did those improvement times in transit reflects or will they be reflected in terms of the cost improvement this year or is that more of a '23 story? And how do we contextualize some of the margin opportunity from the improvement in the supply chain, assuming that it stays at this level or continues to improve from here?

運輸過程中的這些改進時間是否反映或將反映在今年的成本改進方面，還是更多的是 23 年的故事？假設供應鏈保持在這個水平或從這裡繼續改善，我們如何將一些來自供應鏈改善的利潤機會背景化？

So if you're asking about the freight pressure that we've seen, I guess, I'll split it up between air and ocean. Air freight is down. The freight rates are down from where they were a year ago. They've come down a little bit, but still obviously dramatically higher than where they were pre-COVID. Ocean is higher than a year ago. The spot rates have come down off their peak, but it's still a headwind for us this year because last year we were benefiting from a contract where we had locked in rates well below the spot. So all in all, when you put that together, freight is pretty neutral this year after the big headwind that we had last year, maybe a slight headwind again this year. And then hopefully, if things continue, it will become a tailwind in 2023.

因此，如果您要詢問我們所看到的貨運壓力，我想，我會將其分為空運和海運。空運下降。運費比一年前有所下降。它們已經下降了一點，但仍然明顯高於它們在 COVID 之前的水平。海洋高於一年前。即期匯率已從峰值回落，但今年對我們來說仍然是一個不利因素，因為去年我們受益於一份合同，我們將利率鎖定在遠低於即期的水平。所以總而言之，當你把這些放在一起時，在我們去年遇到了很大的逆風之後，今年的貨運是相當中性的，今年可能還會有輕微的逆風。然後希望，如果事情繼續下去，它將在 2023 年成為順風。

And our next question comes from Jay Sole of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

And I just want to follow-up on the last point. What's your view on how much improvement you will see in the freight cost that you're talking about over time? Hopefully, it will be a tailwind next year, but there's going to be a little tailwind. I mean, what's your visibility into freight rates getting back to maybe where they were pre-COVID? That's the first question.

我只想跟進最後一點。您如何看待隨著時間的推移您所說的運費成本將有多大改善？希望明年會是順風，但會有一點順風。我的意思是，您對運費回到 COVID 之前的水平有什麼看法？這是第一個問題。

I think -- I don't think anybody knows the answer to that. Certainly, I don't. If the rates continue as they are now, there will be some tailwind next year. But we're talking about 250 basis points or more of headwind that we're experiencing now compared to pre-COVID. And the rates still remain significantly higher from where they were pre-COVID. So if they stay where they are now, we'll get a little bit of that back, but not that much. And obviously, we hope that over time, rates return to where they were before. But I don't have any special insight as to whether or when that will happen.

我認為——我認為沒有人知道這個問題的答案。當然，我不知道。如果利率繼續保持現在的水平，明年將會有一些順風。但是，與新冠疫情之前相比，我們現在正在經歷 250 個基點或更多的逆風。與 COVID 之前的水平相比，這一比率仍然顯著提高。因此，如果他們保持現在的狀態，我們會得到一點回報，但不會那麼多。顯然，我們希望隨著時間的推移，利率會恢復到以前的水平。但我對這是否會發生或何時發生沒有任何特別的見解。

And maybe just on the inventory. Is it possible to sort of break down a little bit further your comments on inventory. What kind of inventory you're carrying and sort of like how it's going to play out to the point in 4Q where inventory levels a bit more in line with the sales trend?

也許只是在庫存上。是否可以進一步細分您對庫存的評論。你攜帶什麼樣的庫存，以及它將如何發揮到第四季度的庫存水平與銷售趨勢更加一致的程度？

I think, as Danielle pointed out in the prepared remarks, if you look at the inventory compared to Q2 of '19, I think that's the right comparison, by the way, because Q2 last year, we were dramatically under-inventoried and had to fly a lot of goods, et cetera. But if you look at it compared to Q2 of '19, we have almost exactly 40 days more of supply. And that makes sense, because on average, we have built an additional 40 days of transit time into our production calendars. And again, from China, we used to work on 30 days, an assumption of 30 days and then we began working on an assumption of 70 days earlier this year.

我認為，正如丹妮爾在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，如果你看一下與 19 年第二季度相比的庫存，我認為這是正確的比較，順便說一下，因為去年第二季度，我們的庫存嚴重不足，不得不飛很多貨物，等等。但是，如果您將其與 19 年第二季度相比，我們的供應量幾乎增加了 40 天。這是有道理的，因為平均而言，我們在生產日曆中增加了 40 天的運輸時間。再說一次，在中國，我們過去是按 30 天工作，假設是 30 天，然後我們今年早些時候開始按 70 天的假設工作。

As I pointed out, right now, we're getting products in more like 45 days. So as that transit time decreases, we'll be able to carry less inventory. And as I said, I think that you'll really start to see that come down. Again, assuming that the supply chain disruption doesn't get worse, but assuming we stay on this path, you'll see the inventory level start to come down in Q4.

正如我所指出的，現在，我們將在 45 天內獲得產品。因此，隨著運輸時間的減少，我們將能夠攜帶更少的庫存。正如我所說，我認為你會真正開始看到它的下降。同樣，假設供應鏈中斷沒有變得更糟，但假設我們繼續走這條路，你會看到庫存水平在第四季度開始下降。

Our next question comes from Samuel Poser of WTCO.

我們的下一個問題來自 WTCO 的 Samuel Poser。

One, you talked about the retailers being a little more cautious. Is that -- how is your performance relative to other things? Are they being cautious with you because you don't -- you ship a lot of -- or potentially cautious with goods that aren't there yet despite how they may be performing relative to the rest of the businesses, other categories and so on?

一，您談到零售商要更加謹慎。那是 - 你的表現相對於其他事情如何？他們對你保持謹慎是因為你沒有 - 你運送了很多 - 或者可能對尚未出現的商品保持謹慎，儘管它們相對於其他業務、其他類別等的表現可能如何?

We still believe that our performance is on the high-end of what they're seeing. And we still think, relative to the competition, we're outperforming. But I think that this slowdown that we talked about in June and July, I think that that's something that's certainly not just us that's seeing that. And I think a lot of retailers are experiencing that and they're taking action as a result to try to make sure their inventories are in line.

我們仍然相信我們的表現處於他們所看到的高端。而且我們仍然認為，相對於競爭對手，我們表現出色。但我認為我們在 6 月和 7 月談到的這種放緩，我認為這肯定不僅僅是我們看到的。我認為很多零售商都在經歷這種情況，因此他們正在採取行動以確保他們的庫存符合要求。

Two follow-ups. One -- or three follow-ups. How big relative like June and how big is June and July relative to this time period sort of in the big picture? Is this a busy time normally or is this sort of an in-between time and how we're coming up on back-to-school? Do you believe that people's moods could change pretty quickly if back-to-school comes in and as we get sort of out of the doll rooms into a time when people really need to shop more?

兩個後續。一或三個後續行動。從整體上看，六月和七月相對於這個時間段有多大？這是正常的忙碌時間，還是介於兩者之間的時間以及我們如何返校？你是否相信如果開學了，人們的情緒會很快改變，當我們走出娃娃屋進入人們真的需要更多購物的時候？

To your point, these are not huge months. We're -- certainly yes. Obviously, if things get considerably better, people will react. But as of now, we're essentially assuming that things continue as they are today.

就您而言，這幾個月並不大。我們是——當然是的。顯然，如果情況好轉很多，人們就會做出反應。但截至目前，我們基本上假設事情會像今天一樣繼續下去。

And then lastly on Nordstrom Anniversary Sale. How does that look for you?

最後是 Nordstrom 週年紀念特賣。你覺得怎麼樣？

That's good. Yeah, we were very pleased with it. We had overall, very strong increase to last year, which in and of itself last year was quite good as well. So that was great. And I think what we were pleased about was really strong performance across our various businesses. So did well in Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, Blondo, apparel, kids. So it was really broad-based strength and that was exciting.

那挺好的。是的，我們對此非常滿意。與去年相比，我們總體上實現了非常強勁的增長，而去年的增長本身也相當不錯。所以那太好了。而且我認為我們感到高興的是我們各個業務的強勁表現。在 Steve Madden、Dolce Vita、Blondo、服裝、童裝方面也表現出色。所以這真的是基礎廣泛的力量，這令人興奮。

And we have a question from Laura Champine of Loop Capital.

我們有一個來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine 的問題。

Can you talk about growth of your [private label] versus your branded sales and maybe give a little more color on the growth of the Steve Madden brand specifically?

您能否談談您的 [自有品牌] 與您的品牌銷售額的增長情況，或者俱體談談 Steve Madden 品牌的增長情況？

Yeah, I'm sorry. I think that you were cutting out a little bit. You asked first about private label versus branded. Is that right?

是的，我很抱歉。我認為你剪掉了一點。您首先詢問了自有品牌與品牌的關係。那正確嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

So branded is growing faster than private label and we expect that to be the case in the back half as well. Our biggest customers on the private label side are the mass merchants. And obviously, both of them, the big ones, have talked publicly about their desire to right-size inventory. And so we will feel some of that impact on the private label side.

因此，品牌的增長速度快於自有品牌，我們預計後半部分也是如此。我們在自有品牌方面的最大客戶是大眾商家。顯然，他們兩個，大的，都公開談論過他們想要調整庫存的願望。所以我們會在自有品牌方面感受到一些影響。

And then, look, Steve Madden has been the big driver of growth for us and that continues. Steve Madden, as an example, in wholesale this quarter, was up north of 40% to last year in the U.S. and faster than that in international markets, that's wholesale footwear.

然後，看，史蒂夫·馬登一直是我們增長的主要推動力，而且這種情況還在繼續。例如，史蒂夫·馬登（Steve Madden）在本季度的批發業務中，在美國比去年同期增長了 40%，並且比國際市場（批發鞋類）的增長速度更快。

And our next question comes from Ms. Susan Anderson of B. Riley Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Susan Anderson 女士。

Nice job on the quarter. I was wondering if you could talk about ASPs versus units in the quarter. I guess, how much have each drove the sales growth? And also, what you're seeing from an AUC perspective in the back half?

本季度幹得不錯。我想知道您是否可以談論本季度的 ASP 與單位。我想，每個人對銷售增長的推動作用有多大？而且，你從後半部分的 AUC 角度看到了什麼？

ASPs were up meaningfully in wholesale versus last year. In DTC, our AUR was actually down a little bit versus last year. Keep in mind, we had the huge improvement in AUR last year. So we're still well above pre-COVID levels, but we did have some pullback.

與去年相比，批發平均售價顯著上升。在 DTC 中，我們的 AUR 實際上比去年有所下降。請記住，去年我們在 AUR 上取得了巨大的進步。所以我們仍然遠高於 COVID 之前的水平，但我們確實有一些回調。

And then what about units, I guess, in both channels and then AUC in the back half too?

然後我猜，兩個通道中的單位和後半部分的 AUC 呢？

So units were up in both. And going into the back half, I still think there will be a little bit of AUR pressure in DTC.

因此，兩者的單位都上升了。進入後半區，我仍然認為 DTC 會有一點 AUR 壓力。

And is that, I guess, just maybe kind of want to get your thoughts to a follow-on on just the promotional environment, like how you're feeling in terms of having to promote more or not promote more in the back half?

而且，我想，這是否只是想讓你的想法在促銷環境上得到跟進，比如你在後半場必須推廣更多或不推廣更多方面的感受？

We are seeing promotional activity increase across the industry. Obviously, it was unusually low last year. So we did build that into our plans coming into the year. But certainly, that has come to pass. I think there will be more promotional activity and you'll see some of that from us as well. We think that we can keep it controlled, but it will be more than we did in 2021.

我們看到整個行業的促銷活動都在增加。顯然，去年的價格異常低。因此，我們確實將其納入了今年的計劃。但可以肯定的是，這已經成為現實。我認為會有更多的促銷活動，你也會從我們那裡看到一些。我們認為我們可以控制住它，但它會比我們在 2021 年所做的更多。

And then just to follow-up on the inventory comments, I was curious, the extra 40 days that you talked about that you have right now, I guess what's the composition of that? Is that for the fall or is that similar product or how should we think about that given historically you've always obviously been more real-time?

然後只是跟進庫存評論，我很好奇，你說的額外的 40 天，你現在有，我猜那是什麼組成的？這是秋季的產品還是類似的產品，或者我們應該如何考慮從歷史上看你一直顯然更實時？

Yeah, it's fall.

是的，秋天了。

So just fall. And then on the top-line, just to reiterate guide there, just curious, it sounds like things have pulled in a little bit. There's some macro uncertainty. So just curious, maybe if you can elaborate a little bit more on what's driving the confidence there? I guess, was there a big cushion to begin with there? And so you feel comfortable still with where you're at for the rest of the year?

所以就跌吧。然後在最重要的地方，只是重申那裡的指南，只是好奇，聽起來事情已經拉了一點。存在一些宏觀不確定性。所以只是好奇，也許你能詳細說明一下是什麼推動了那裡的信心？我想，從那裡開始有一個大墊子嗎？所以你在今年剩下的時間裡仍然感到舒服嗎？

Well, I'll tell you, on May 31, we were trending to be above the top end of our annual guidance on the top-line and the bottom line. And so we have made I think sort of a meaningful adjustment based on what we've seen in June and July. But as of today, that still keeps us within our range.

好吧，我會告訴你，在 5 月 31 日，我們的收入和利潤趨向於高於年度指導的上限。因此，根據我們在 6 月和 7 月所看到的情況，我們做出了我認為有意義的調整。但截至今天，這仍然使我們保持在我們的範圍內。

And our next question comes from Paul Lejuez of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Paul Lejuez。

You mentioned that 2Q came in above your expectations. I was curious if you could share where you saw the biggest upside relative to your plan? And I think you had mentioned that there was a pull forward. Curious about the size of that? And just, obviously, it didn't flow through the beat, makes sense. But I'm curious if you've just taken a more conservative approach on the top-line for the second half? Is there also an aspect of increased promotional assumptions that are built in? And just high level, what are your wholesale retail partners? How are they thinking about accepting price increases now at this point relative to how they were willing to accept those in the beginning of the year?

您提到第二季度超出您的預期。我很好奇你是否可以分享你認為相對於你的計劃最大的好處？我想你已經提到有一個推動力。好奇它的大小？只是，很明顯，它沒有通過節拍流動，是有道理的。但我很好奇你是否剛剛在下半年的頂線上採取了更保守的方法？是否還有一個內置的促銷假設增加的方面？只是高層，你的批發零售合作夥伴是什麼？相對於年初他們願意接受的價格上漲，他們現在如何考慮接受價格上漲？

Okay, there was a few there. So I'm going to -- I hope I can remember. I think the first question was about the beat in Q2 and where that came from on the top-line. Most of that was in wholesale and most of that was pull forward of orders that we planned to go out in early Q3 that we were able to pull forward in Q2. We talked about the improvement in the transit times. And so we did get some stuff early and we were able to get our accounts to take some goods in early.

好的，那裡有一些。所以我要——我希望我能記住。我認為第一個問題是關於第二季度的節拍以及收入來自哪裡。其中大部分是批發，其中大部分是我們計劃在第三季度初發出的訂單，而我們能夠在第二季度推出。我們談到了運輸時間的改善。所以我們確實早早地得到了一些東西，我們能夠讓我們的賬戶早日拿走一些貨物。

So we had, I think, planned for Q2, if I'm remembering to be up in wholesale, high-30s, maybe 39%, something like that to last year. And obviously, we came in at 51.5% growth to last year and the vast majority of that was the pull forward. On the DTC side, we were also modestly ahead of what we anticipated. I think we were looking that to be around flat and we came in at about 2.2%. And that was again driven by April and May outperformance.

因此，我認為，我們計劃在第二季度進行，如果我記得批發價會上漲 30 多歲，也許是 39%，與去年類似。顯然，與去年相比，我們實現了 51.5% 的增長，其中絕大多數是向前推進的。在 DTC 方面，我們也略微領先於我們的預期。我認為我們一直在尋找持平，我們的收入約為 2.2%。這再次受到 4 月和 5 月表現出色的推動。

What was the next one?

下一個是什麼？

Just the assumptions for the back half. I think you'd mentioned as part of an earlier response that you were taking a little bit more of a conservative approach on top-line. But curious if you adjusted your assumptions on promotions and pricing as well and tie that into how willing your retail partners are to accept price increases that you were hoping to pass-through?

只是對後半部分的假設。我想你在之前的回復中提到過，你在頂線上採取了更保守的方法。但好奇您是否也調整了對促銷和定價的假設，並將其與您的零售合作夥伴接受您希望通過的價格上漲的意願聯繫起來？

We have -- We've increased our assumptions for promotional activity modestly, although we've talked about in previous calls, we had built in an assumption that there was going to be an uptick in promo activity. So a lot of that was already in our numbers, but we have taken that up a little bit as well. And yeah, I still don't think we're getting a lot of pushback from our wholesale customers on price increases that they seem to be accepting those and we'll obviously have to carefully monitor how the end consumer reacts to that. But so far, I wouldn't say there's a lot of pushback from the wholesale customers.

我們有——我們適度增加了對促銷活動的假設，儘管我們在之前的電話會議中已經討論過，但我們已經建立了一個假設，即促銷活動將會增加。所以其中很多已經在我們的數字中，但我們也接受了一點。是的，我仍然認為我們的批發客戶並沒有因為他們似乎接受這些價格上漲而受到很多反對，我們顯然必須仔細監控最終消費者對此的反應。但到目前為止，我不會說批發客戶有很多反對意見。

And it looks like our next question is coming from Tom Nikic of Wedbush.

看起來我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Tom Nikic。

I just want to ask as we kind of work through our models for the back half, can you help us sort of understand kind of the shape in the back half, like how we should think about Q3 versus Q4? Obviously, you have pretty challenging compares in Q4, especially in the wholesale channel. And I think on the last call, you kind of gave some guidance around like wholesale versus DTC for the full year. I was just wondering if anything has changed from a channel-by-channel perspective?

我只是想問一下，在我們研究後半部分的模型時，你能幫助我們理解後半部分的形狀嗎，比如我們應該如何看待 Q3 和 Q4？顯然，第四季度的比較非常具有挑戰性，尤其是在批發渠道中。而且我認為在最後一次電話會議上，您提供了一些指導，例如全年批發與 DTC。我只是想知道從逐個頻道的角度來看是否有任何變化？

Look, we don't give quarterly guidance. I'm not going to get too detailed about Q3 versus Q4. But I think that what I will tell you is on an EPS basis, obviously our guidance implies back half earnings down to last year and the vast majority of that decline we expect to come in Q4. So Q3, I think that we can get close to where we were a year ago, but Q4 we expect to be down. In terms of the expectations for revenue growth by channel, that's not too different from where we were before. We've made slight tweaks there, but we're still really in wholesale, looking at mid-to-high-teens for the year and DTC mid-to-high-singles.

看，我們不提供季度指導。關於第三季度和第四季度，我不會太詳細。但我認為我要告訴你的是基於每股收益，顯然我們的指導意味著將一半的收益回溯到去年，而我們預計大部分下降將在第四季度出現。所以第三季度，我認為我們可以接近一年前的水平，但我們預計第四季度會下降。就渠道收入增長的預期而言，這與我們之前的情況並沒有太大的不同。我們在那裡做了一些細微的調整，但我們仍然真正處於批發階段，著眼於今年的中高青少年和 DTC 中高單曲。

Our next question comes from Steve Marotta of C.L. King & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.L. 的 Steve Marotta。金與聯營公司。

Ed, you talked about June, July comps up 57%. Was there a material differential between June and July? And I also would stipulate of course that they are relatively light volume months. But was the percentage materially different from the two months?

Ed，你談到了 6 月，7 月的股價上漲了 57%。 6 月和 7 月之間是否存在重大差異？當然，我也會規定它們是相對輕量的月份。但是這個百分比與兩個月有很大不同嗎？

Almost exactly the same.

幾乎完全一樣。

And also from an AUC standpoint, we're seeing roll-offs in commodities, hearing about factory capacity actually being a little bit more beneficial. Can you talk a little bit about AUC? Have you realized any of the benefits of that? And I know that you've already commented on freight, but have you realized any benefits of that expectations in the second half of this year and maybe into '23 as well?

同樣從 AUC 的角度來看，我們看到商品價格下降，聽說工廠產能實際上更有利一些。你能談談AUC嗎？您是否意識到這樣做的任何好處？而且我知道您已經對貨運發表了評論，但是您是否在今年下半年甚至到 23 年也意識到了這種期望的好處？

We have started to see some, I guess, improvement or as we negotiate with our factories, we think that perhaps some of the softening demand has made them a little hungrier for business and it has made those negotiations go a little bit better. So we think we're going to do a little bit better than we were trending in terms of our factory prices, particularly out of China.

我猜我們已經開始看到一些改進，或者當我們與我們的工廠談判時，我們認為也許一些疲軟的需求使他們對業務更加渴望，並且使這些談判進展得更好一些。因此，我們認為我們的出廠價格會比我們的趨勢好一點，尤其是在中國以外的地區。

So would you say still above last year, but not as high as it had been on a year-over-year basis or actually both would you say is below?

所以你會說仍然高於去年，但沒有像去年那樣高，或者實際上你會說兩者都低於？

No, I would say, that's right. Probably still -- certainly for the full year, still above last year.

不，我會說，這是正確的。可能仍然 - 當然是全年，仍然高於去年。

Our next question comes from Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢小組的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about DTC with e-comm and stores, what did you see on each? How are they doing either relative to last year or relative to your plan? And then I always know that buy now pay later was impactful for you. Any changes that you're seeing there? And just lastly, the urban stores versus suburban versus outlet stores, any difference in performance on what you're seeing?

當您想到電子商務和商店的 DTC 時，您在每個方面都看到了什麼？相對於去年或相對於您的計劃，他們的表現如何？然後我一直都知道，先買後付對你有影響。您在那裡看到的任何變化？最後，城市商店與郊區商店與直銷店，您所看到的表現有何不同？

Yeah, like a lot of folks, we've seen a pivot back to brick and mortar this year at the expense of digital. So brick and mortar was on a year-over-year basis stronger than digital, digital was actually down in the quarter. This is on our owned and operated versus last year and brick and mortar was what got us to the positive 2% overall. Of course, if you compare to pre-COVID, obviously, digital is still up dramatically and has been a far bigger source of growth.

是的，像很多人一樣，我們已經看到今年以犧牲數字化為代價回到實體店。因此，實體店的同比增長要強於數字，數字實際上在本季度有所下降。這是我們擁有和經營的與去年相比的情況，而實體店是我們整體達到正 2% 的原因。當然，如果你與 COVID 之前相比，顯然，數字技術仍在大幅增長，並且是一個更大的增長來源。

In terms of buy now pay later, yeah, that continues to be significant for us. We've seen the use of that tick up a little bit, which could be reflective of inflation and how the consumer is feeling overall, if they're feeling a little bit more strapped.

就現在購買以後付款而言，是的，這對我們來說仍然很重要。我們已經看到這種情況的使用有所增加，這可能反映了通貨膨脹以及消費者的整體感受，如果他們感覺有點緊張的話。

And then in terms of the last one about urban versus suburban locations, yeah, if you look in the U.S. at our comps by region, New York City was the top performer year-over-year. But that's really a function of the fact that it was the weakest last year. If you look at it versus pre-COVID, New York City was still the weakest region compared to '19. It was still the only region that comped negative to '19 in the quarter, although we got very close. We were only down low-singles there and expect to turn positive this quarter.

然後就最後一個關於城市與郊區的位置而言，是的，如果你在美國按地區查看我們的組合，紐約市是同比表現最好的。但這實際上是因為它是去年最弱的事實。如果您將其與 COVID 之前相比，與 19 年相比，紐約市仍然是最薄弱的地區。儘管我們非常接近，但它仍然是本季度唯一一個與 19 年相比負數的地區。我們在那裡只是低單，預計本季度將轉為積極。

And then in terms of -- I think you asked also about full price versus outlet. Full price was a little bit better than outlet stores in the quarter.

然後就 - 我認為您還詢問了全價與出口的關係。全價比本季度的直銷店好一點。

And then are you taking price increases in the fall also? Where are you on the cadence of price increases?

然後你也在考慮秋天的價格上漲嗎？您在價格上漲的節奏上處於什麼位置？

No, we really pushed that through in spring. So there's nothing incremental in fall in terms of percentage. I mean, they are up obviously over last fall, but so is spring.

不，我們真的在春天推動了這一點。因此，就百分比而言，下降沒有任何增量。我的意思是，它們顯然比去年秋天有所上漲，但春天也是如此。

And our next question is a follow-up from Samuel Poser of WTCO.

我們的下一個問題是 WTCO 的 Samuel Poser 的後續問題。

I just want to follow-up to the other questions that are just being asked. Ed, could you talk about last year as a non-promotional environment versus historicals? And what kind of difference that was from, let's say, the last 10 years?

我只想跟進剛剛提出的其他問題。 Ed，你能把去年作為一個非促銷環境與歷史相提並論嗎？比方說，與過去 10 年有什麼不同？

It was clearly the lowest level of promotional activity for us and for the industry overall that I've seen in my career, which spans more than the last 10 years. So it was meaningful. I mean, how many hundreds of basis points of gross margin? I can't tell you exactly off the top of my head, but it was significant and we are seeing some normalization.

對於我們和整個行業來說，這顯然是我在過去 10 多年的職業生涯中所見過的最低水平的促銷活動。所以很有意義。我的意思是，毛利率幾百個基點？我不能確切地告訴你，但它很重要，我們正在看到一些正常化。

So a return to -- I mean, the return isn't going anywhere near where it was in '19 or prior at the moment, but it's getting -- I mean, it's still -- your margins are still going to be better than that.

所以回歸 - 我的意思是，回報不會接近 19 年或之前的水平，但它正在 - 我的意思是，它仍然 - 你的利潤率仍然會比那。

For us, yes. I would say the industry overall though we are seeing a pretty meaningful uptick relative to last year. Will we get back to '19 levels? I'm not sure, but I wouldn't rule it out the way things are going.

對我們來說，是的。我想說的是整個行業，儘管相對於去年我們看到了非常有意義的上升。我們會回到 19 年的水平嗎？我不確定，但我不會排除事情的發展方向。

(Operator Instructions) And I see no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ed Rosenfeld for closing remarks.

（操作員說明）我在隊列中看不到其他問題。我現在想把會議轉回給 Ed Rosenfeld 做閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thanks so much for joining us this morning. I hope everybody enjoys the rest of their summer. And we look forward to speaking to you on the third quarter call. Have a great day.

偉大的。好吧，非常感謝您今天早上加入我們。我希望每個人都能享受他們剩下的夏天。我們期待在第三季度電話會議上與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接，度過愉快的一天。