殼牌 (SHEL) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's first-quarter 2026 results presentation. I'm pleased that amid heightened volatility this quarter, we delivered strong results through our relentless focus on operational performance and the strength of our integrated global portfolio. Yet again, our staff rose to the challenge and were able to deliver this safely and effectively, navigating another quarter of uncertainty.

歡迎參加殼牌 2026 年第一季業績簡報會。我很高興在本季波動加劇之際，我們憑藉對營運績效的不懈專注，以及整合式全球投資組合的實力，交出強勁成果。我們的員工再次迎接挑戰，並能以安全且有效的方式達成目標，度過又一個充滿不確定性的季度。

Let me first take you through our Q1 results before I come back to the impact of the Middle East conflict in more detail. We delivered a strong set of results, with adjusted earnings for the quarter of just under $7 billion. We generated over $17 billion of cash flow from operations excluding working capital. Our working capital outflow for the quarter was some $11 billion, reflecting the impact of higher commodity prices on inventory and receivables. We would expect a significant amount of this outflow to reverse over time. Now turning to our businesses in more detail. In Upstream, we delivered strong operational performance across the board.

在我更詳細說明中東衝突的影響之前，先帶各位回顧我們第一季的業績。我們交出一組強勁的成果，本季調整後盈餘接近 70 億美元。扣除營運資金後，我們的營運現金流超過 170 億美元。本季營運資金淨流出約 110 億美元，反映大宗商品價格上升對存貨與應收帳款的影響。我們預期其中相當大一部分的流出將隨時間回轉。接著更詳細說明各項業務。在上游業務方面，我們在各領域皆展現強勁的營運表現。

For example, in Brazil, we achieved record production levels. In Nigeria at Bonga, we completed a turnaround 10 days ahead of plan. In the US, our Mars platform became the first asset in the Gulf of Mexico to reach 1 billion barrels of oil production. In Integrated Gas, the continued ramp-up of LNG Canada helped to offset the impact of cyclones in Australia and the shutdown of production in Qatar. LNG trading and optimization results were broadly in line with the previous quarter, reflecting price lags in our term contracts.

例如，在巴西，我們達成創紀錄的產量水準。在奈及利亞的 Bonga，我們較計畫提前 10 天完成歲修。在美國，我們的 Mars 平台成為墨西哥灣第一個累計產油量達 10 億桶的資產。在整合式天然氣業務方面，LNG Canada 持續爬坡增產，有助於抵銷澳洲氣旋以及卡達停產的影響。LNG 交易與最佳化成果大致與上一季一致，反映我們長約中的價格遞延效應。

Chemical margins remain depressed, but the team remains focused on making the business free cash flow positive, and we are seeing some encouraging signs. In Products, the results were driven by impressive refining performance, with utilization of 99%, and by significantly higher trading and optimization contributions. Marketing also had another great quarter, despite the pressure of higher feedstock prices in March.

化學品利差仍然低迷，但團隊持續專注於讓該業務的自由現金流轉正，我們也看到一些令人鼓舞的跡象。在產品業務方面，業績主要由亮眼的煉油表現所帶動，產能利用率達 99%，以及交易與最佳化貢獻顯著提高。行銷業務也再度繳出優異的一季，儘管 3 月面臨原料價格上升的壓力。

Lubricant sales were seasonally higher, whilst overall segment results were also helped by our ability to optimize product flows across the different marketing businesses. Overall, this was a strong set of results in a period of volatility and uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. While the Middle East is home to around one-fifth of Shell's hydrocarbon production, impacts have varied by country.

潤滑油銷量因季節性因素而較高，而整體事業群的表現也受惠於我們能在不同的行銷業務之間最佳化產品流向。整體而言，在中東衝突引發的波動與不確定性期間，這是一組強勁的業績成果。雖然中東約占殼牌碳氫化合物產量的五分之一，但各國所受影響不盡相同。

Our heartland position in Oman accounts for around 10% of our global volumes, volumes that don't pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The most significant effects for Shell have been in Qatar. At Pearl GTL, Train 2 was damaged, but thankfully nobody was hurt. We currently estimate it will take around a year to return this train back into service. The repair costs are expected to be well below $0.5 billion on current estimates.

我們在阿曼的核心據點約占全球產量的 10%，而這些產量不需經過荷姆茲海峽。對殼牌而言，最顯著的影響發生在卡達。在 Pearl GTL，第二列（Train 2）受損，但所幸無人受傷。我們目前估計約需一年時間才能讓該列恢復投運。依目前估算，修復成本預期將遠低於 5 億美元。

And Pearl GTL Train 1, as well as the LNG train in which we hold an interest through the QatarEnergy's LNG N4JV, are start-up ready, subject to our ability to move products through the Strait of Hormuz. Whilst much of the organization has been focused on delivering despite the impact of the Middle East conflict, we have also been able to make important progress on our portfolio in line with our strategy.

而 Pearl GTL 第一列（Train 1），以及我們透過 QatarEnergy 的 LNG N4JV 持有權益的 LNG 生產線，皆已具備啟動準備，前提是我們能夠透過荷姆茲海峽運輸產品。儘管組織內多數人都專注於在中東衝突影響下持續交付成果，我們也仍能依循策略在投資組合方面取得重要進展。

In Lubricants, we announced the divestment of our Jiffy Lube's network for $1.3 billion, monetizing an asset that was not core to our business. In Upstream and Integrated Gas, we added new acreage in the United States, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela as we continue to focus on resource longevity.

在潤滑油業務方面，我們宣布以 13 億美元出售 Jiffy Lube 的網路，將一項非核心資產變現。在上游與整合式天然氣方面，我們在美國、哈薩克與委內瑞拉新增礦區權益，持續聚焦資源的長期延續性。

Last week, we announced the strategically important acquisition of Arc Resources. Arc is a high-quality, low-cost operator in Canada's Montney Basin, complementing our existing positions at Groundbirch and Gull Creek. With this combination, we are adding highly contiguous acreage as well as long-duration, top-quartile, low-carbon-intensity production.

上週，我們宣布一項具策略重要性的收購：Arc Resources。Arc 是加拿大蒙特尼（Montney）盆地的高品質、低成本營運商，可與我們在 Groundbirch 與 Gull Creek 的既有布局相互補強。透過此一組合，我們將新增高度連片的礦區，同時取得長期、同業前段班、低碳強度的產量。

Arc provides us with new growth opportunities, a liquid-rich portfolio, and LNG upside. This deal accelerates our strategy, sustaining material liquids production, growing our Integrated Gas business, extending reserve life, and increasing our expected compound annual production growth rate to 2030 from around 1% to 4% compared to 2025. And importantly, this transaction meets our high bar for M&A, with long-term value creation through double-digit returns and an increase in our long-term free cash flow, all while preserving our balance sheet strength, given the 75% share, 25% cash ratio of the deal.

Arc 為我們帶來新的成長機會、富含液體的資產組合，以及 LNG 的上行潛力。此交易加速我們的策略：維持具規模的液體產量、擴大整合式天然氣業務、延長儲量年限，並將我們對 2030 年的預期年複合產量成長率（相較 2025 年）由約 1% 提升至 4%。更重要的是，該交易符合我們對併購的高門檻：透過兩位數報酬創造長期價值、提升長期自由現金流，同時在交易採 75% 股票、25% 現金的結構下，維持資產負債表的強健。

With the Arc acquisition, cash CapEx for the full year 2026 is expected to be between $24 billion and $26 billion, including some $4 billion for the Arc acquisition. For 2027 and 2028, cash CapEx remains at $20 billion to $22 billion, as we will absorb Arc's ongoing cash CapEx into our existing guidance.

隨著收購 Arc，2026 全年現金資本支出（cash CapEx）預期介於 240 億至 260 億美元之間，其中包含約 40 億美元用於收購 Arc。至於 2027 與 2028 年，現金資本支出仍維持在 200 億至 220 億美元，因為我們將把 Arc 的持續性現金資本支出納入既有指引中吸收。

Moving to the rest of our financial framework. At the end of Q1, our net debt position was $52.6 billion, reflecting the working capital outflows I mentioned earlier, as well as the impact of some non-cash variable shipping lease components. Excluding leases, our net debt was some $22 billion. Our balance sheet is strong, with the flexibility we need to operate in today's volatile environment.

接著談我們其餘的財務框架。第一季末，我們的淨負債為 526 億美元，反映我先前提到的營運資金流出，以及部分非現金的可變動航運租賃組成項目之影響。若不含租賃，我們的淨負債約為 220 億美元。我們的資產負債表強健，具備在當前波動環境中營運所需的彈性。

Turning to our shareholder distributions. Today, we are rebalancing our shareholder distributions by announcing a $3 billion share buyback program for the next three months, as well as a 5% increase of our dividend. This is in line with our existing 40% to 50% of CFFO through the cycle distribution policy, which remains sacrosanct and shows our dynamic approach to capital allocation.

接著談股東回饋。今天，我們透過宣布未來三個月 30 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫，以及將股利提高 5%，來重新平衡股東回饋。這符合我們既有的「穿越景氣循環，將營運現金流（CFFO）的 40% 至 50% 用於分配」政策；該政策仍不可動搖，也展現我們在資本配置上的動態作法。

So to conclude, Q1 showed Shell's resilience and ability to deliver strong results in a volatile macro environment. These results reflect the strength of our integrated business model and reinforce the importance of our ongoing efforts to simplify the organization, high-grade our portfolio, and build a stronger Shell for the long term.

總結而言，第一季展現了殼牌在波動的總體環境中仍具韌性並能交出強勁成果的能力。這些成果反映我們整合式商業模式的實力，也再次強調我們持續推動組織簡化、提升投資組合品質，並為長期打造更強健殼牌的重要性。

Our annual general meeting 2026 will be on May 19 and we ask our shareholders to vote against the alternative resolution. By doing so, our shareholders will be endorsing this management team and our Board. And I hope you've had a chance to see our LNG strategic spotlight, which sets out both the growth we see in global LNG demand and how we plan to meet it. As always, our AGM provides an opportunity for our shareholders to engage directly on our progress in delivering more value with less emissions.

我們 2026 年股東常會將於 5 月 19 日舉行，並請股東投票反對該替代決議案。如此一來，股東將是在支持本管理團隊與董事會。我也希望各位已經有機會看到我們的 LNG 策略聚焦報告，其中闡述我們所見的全球 LNG 需求成長，以及我們計畫如何滿足該需求。一如以往，股東常會提供股東直接就我們在「以更少排放創造更多價值」方面的進展進行交流的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator instructions)

（接線員指示）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered a strong set of results in the first quarter, underpinned by continued strong operational performance. Now Sinead and I will be answering your questions. So please could we just have one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity.

感謝各位今天與會。我們希望在觀看本次簡報後，各位已看到我們在第一季交出一組強勁成果，而其基礎是持續強勁的營運表現。接下來 Sinead 和我將回答各位的提問。因此，請每位提問者盡量只問一到兩個問題，讓每個人都有機會。

With that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

那麼，請先給我們第一位提問者，好嗎，Luke？

Matt Lofting, JP Morgan.

JP Morgan 的 Matt Lofting。

Thanks, and my congratulations on the strength of financial performance amidst macro volatility in the first quarter. I had two topics to put forward, one fiscal and one perhaps more industrial. First on distributions and capital reallocation, I wondered if you could expand on the degree to which today's shift towards dividends over share buybacks is value-led, factoring multiples, macro conditions, as opposed to feeling a greater need to post M&A to funnel implied annualized net cash flow savings to the balance sheet.

謝謝，也恭喜你們在第一季宏觀波動之下仍展現強勁的財務表現。我想提出兩個主題，一個偏財務，一個可能更偏產業面。首先關於配發與資本再配置，我想請你們進一步說明：今天把重心從庫藏股回購轉向股利，這在多大程度上是以價值為導向（考量估值倍數、宏觀環境等），而不是因為覺得在併購之後更需要把隱含的年化淨現金流節省導入資產負債表？

And then second, I wanted to just pick up on Integrated Gas performance and wondered if you could speak to the role and magnitude of price lagging effects within performance, because it sort of struck me that in the conditions the industry is experiencing, downstream perhaps acts as a faster response lead indicator in Q1, whereas IG margins and performance are slower burn and perhaps still to come 2Q plus as price lags and monetizing dislocations enabled by the working cap feeds through. Thank you.

第二點，我想追問一下整合天然氣（Integrated Gas）的表現，想請你們談談價格遞延（price lag）效應在績效中的角色與幅度。因為我感覺在目前產業所處的情況下，下游可能在第一季更像是反應較快的領先指標；而整合天然氣的利差與表現則是較慢發酵，可能要到第二季甚至之後才會顯現，因為價格遞延以及透過營運資金傳導、將錯位（dislocations）變現所帶來的效益會逐步反映。謝謝。

Thanks, Matt. Tell you what, let me maybe use your second question just to talk about the performance this quarter, touch on distributions, but then hand over to you, Sinead, to maybe go through that. Firstly, just to say how incredibly proud I am of the entire company. Indeed, as you say, with the backdrop of uncertainty and volatility, this was a great quarter. And I think it's the momentum that I'm particularly proud of, the momentum that we have built up.

謝謝，Matt。這樣吧，我先用你的第二個問題來談談本季表現，也稍微帶到配發，然後再交給你，Sinead，請你再補充說明。首先，我想說我對整個公司感到無比自豪。確實如你所說，在不確定與波動的背景下，這是一個很棒的季度。而我特別自豪的是我們建立起來的動能，我們所累積的動能。

We have said that we are going to methodically transform this company to be a leaner, much more competitive one. And what you have seen us do is drive a significant improvement in operational performance. You saw that, for example, Matthew Lofting, this quarter through some of the IG performance. LNG Canada stepped up when the Qatari volumes were out. And indeed, what you will see is that price lag effect play into the second quarter for IG results because of the term contract nature of that pricing.

我們已經說過，我們將有系統地轉型這家公司，使其更精實、競爭力更強。而你們看到的是，我們推動營運表現顯著改善。例如，Matthew Lofting，你在本季從部分整合天然氣的表現就看到了。當卡達的供應量缺席時，加拿大 LNG 項目挺身而出、補上缺口。而且你們也會看到，由於定期合約的定價特性，價格遞延效應將在第二季反映到整合天然氣的業績中。

But every part of the business, upstream, chemicals, products, marketing, has had a very strong quarter. You've also heard us talk about both cost and capital discipline, and again, you see that continue through. And we've talked about high-grading the portfolio. Last year, we did the sale of onshore Nigeria. We sold Singapore Chemicals and Products. And of course, just last week, we welcomed Arc into the Shell family subject to completion as well, really building a foundation for long-term growth in an asset base that is very complementary to ours.

但業務的每一個部分——上游、化工、產品、行銷——本季都表現非常強勁。你們也聽到我們談到成本與資本紀律，而你們再次看到這些持續落實。我們也談到投資組合的優化（high-grading）。去年我們完成了尼日利亞陸上資產的出售。我們出售了新加坡化工與產品業務。當然，就在上週，我們也歡迎 Arc 加入 Shell 大家庭（仍須待交易完成），這確實是在一個與我們高度互補的資產基礎上，為長期成長奠定基礎。

So really happy with where we are, but we are not done. My expectation of my organization is to step up at least one or two more gears, and we are developing the plans to do so, and we will continue to drive that forward. The other thing we have talked about and have said consistently is everything that we do is in service of long-term shareholder value creation. Our 40% to 50% CFFO cash returns are sacrosanct. And what we have said is we will be dynamic in our capital allocation to create value for our shareholders through the cycle.

所以我們對目前的進展非常滿意，但我們還沒完成。我對組織的期待是至少再提升一到兩個檔位；我們正在制定相應計畫，並會持續推進。我們也一直在談、並且一貫強調：我們所做的一切都是為了創造長期股東價值。我們 40% 到 50% 的 CFFO 現金回饋承諾是不可動搖的。而我們也說過，我們會在景氣循環中動態配置資本，為股東創造價值。

And this quarter is an example of that. We've bumped up the divvy by 5%, showing the underlying confidence that we have in this company to be able to operate irrespective of the external environment. It's our 18th quarter of a $3 billion-plus buyback. And indeed, what we have also done is we have been able to create capacity to be able to leverage that capacity at a down point in the cycle to lean even heavier into buybacks when we have the opportunity to do that. So we are thinking long term and acting in service of that shareholder value creation over the longer term.

本季就是一個例子。我們把股利提高了 5%，展現我們對公司基本面的信心——我們有能力不受外部環境影響而持續營運。這是我們連續第 18 個季度進行超過 30 億美元的回購。而且我們也創造了額外的能力，使我們能在景氣循環的低點運用這個能力——當機會出現時，更大力地進行回購。因此，我們是以長期思維在思考，並以創造更長期的股東價值為依歸來採取行動。

Sinead, do you want to add more on the distributions maybe?

Sinead，你要不要再補充一下配發方面？

I -- indeed, and thank you for that, Matt. I think the only thing that I would really add is to say in terms of the balance sheet, because balance sheet and distributions are intrinsically linked from my perspective, I'm incredibly comfortable with the balance sheet. You know that by now. And in effect, that extra cash that we're putting onto the balance sheet or the additional cash is for additional buybacks in the future when the opportunity presents itself. Looking forward to that as well.

我——是的，謝謝你，Matt。我想我唯一要補充的是資產負債表的部分；因為在我看來，資產負債表與配發是內在緊密相連的，我對資產負債表感到非常安心。你們現在也都知道這一點。實際上，我們放到資產負債表上的那筆額外現金或新增現金，是為了未來在機會出現時進行更多回購。我也很期待那一天。

Thanks for that, Sinead. Matt, thank you for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝你，Sinead。Matt，謝謝你的問題。Luke，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs 的 Michele Della Vigna。

Thank you, and again, congratulations on the strong results. I wanted to ask two questions, if I may. The first one is on frontier exploration. It's not something that has created a tremendous amount of value in the industry or at Shell in the last few years. But I was wondering if you think that AI and all of the improvement in computing power could actually change that and make it into a key driver for you to continue to expand your reserve life and your visibility on longer term growth.

謝謝，也再次恭喜你們的強勁成果。如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。第一個是關於前沿勘探（frontier exploration）。過去幾年，這在產業內或在 Shell 並沒有創造非常可觀的價值。但我想請教，你是否認為 AI 以及運算能力的提升，可能會改變這一點，並使其成為你們持續延長儲量年限、提升長期成長能見度的關鍵驅動因素？

And then secondly, as the leading oil product marketer in the world, I was just wondering if you're starting to see some early signs of demand distractions, perhaps in areas where prices have been especially strong, like jet fuel across your global business. Thank you.

第二個問題，作為全球領先的油品行銷商，我想請問你們是否開始看到一些需求受抑或轉移的早期跡象，可能出現在價格特別強勢的領域，例如你們全球業務中的航空燃油。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Michele, let me take both of those. I think on exploration, let me maybe just broaden it beyond just frontier exploration because I do think, and I've mentioned in the past, we have made a hard reset in our exploration department from a leadership perspective. We have restocked the funnel with some very exciting opportunities in places like Angola, the Gulf of America, recently Alaska and more.

好的。謝謝，Michele，我來回答這兩個問題。關於勘探，我想把範圍稍微擴大，不只談前沿勘探；因為我確實認為——我過去也提過——我們在勘探部門的領導層方面做了徹底的重整（hard reset）。我們也用一些非常令人振奮的機會重新補足了案源管道，例如安哥拉、美洲灣（Gulf of America）、近期的阿拉斯加等地。

But what we are also doing is fundamentally challenging our workflows to make them much more data enabled in the way we execute those workflows. And so we have been embedding AI as a core part of the way that we are able to look at, in particular, our existing reservoirs, where we do have basin mastery and where we have sufficient and significant amounts of data. That allows us to be able to really understand what other opportunities we have to tap into. And of course, for frontier exploration, we are using some of those same data enabled workflows to be able to unlock more opportunities. Too early to say how quickly that success will materialize, but we are leaning heavily into it.

但我們同時也在從根本上挑戰我們的工作流程，讓我們在執行這些流程時能更以數據為驅動。因此，我們已將 AI 嵌入為核心的一部分，特別是在我們既有油藏上——在那些我們具備盆地掌握度（basin mastery）、且擁有足夠且大量數據的地方——用來協助我們進行判讀。這讓我們能真正理解還有哪些其他機會可以開發。當然，對於前沿勘探，我們也在使用同樣一些數據驅動的工作流程，以解鎖更多機會。現在要說這些成果會多快顯現還太早，但我們正大力投入。

On your second question around the broader macro, I think what we see at the moment is a mixed picture. The hard facts are we are -- we have dug ourselves a hole of close to 1 billion barrels of crude shortage at the moment, either because of locked in barrels or unproduced barrels, and of course, that hole is deepening every single day. So the journey back will be a long one. And you're beginning to see that on the overall refining complex.

至於你第二個關於更廣泛宏觀環境的問題，我認為我們目前看到的是一個混合的圖景。硬數據顯示，我們目前已經挖出了一個接近 10 億桶原油短缺的「坑」——不論是因為被鎖定的桶數或未生產的桶數——而且這個坑每天都在加深。因此，要走回來會是一段很長的路。而你也開始在整體煉油體系（refining complex）上看到這一點。

So it depends on the country, depends on the region. We are seeing indeed some demand curtailment to the tune of, say, 5% in areas like jet in the airline industry. But that's the only thing that you can expect people to do, is either drawing down on stocks, fuel switching, or in essence, demand curtailment. We continue to see resilience in many parts of the world, but the question will be how will that pan out in the coming months? Too early to speculate on that.

所以這取決於國家，也取決於地區。我們確實看到一些需求被抑制，例如在航空業的航油等領域，大約有 5% 的需求縮減。但你能預期人們會做的也就只有這些：要嘛消耗庫存、要嘛改用其他燃料，或本質上就是需求抑制。我們在世界許多地方仍持續看到韌性，但問題是未來幾個月會如何發展？現在還太早，無法對此做出推測。

Thanks for the questions, Michele. Luke, let's have the next question, please.

謝謝你的提問，Michele。Luke，請下一位提問。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

Alastair Syme，花旗。

Thanks. Hi, hi Wael and Sinead. I'm trying to figure out in both refining and chemicals in this environment how it plays out in the coming period. I mean, you've got quite a large footprint to Asia -- in Asia. Can you talk to both businesses about access to feedstock, how you can run the assets and where margins are sitting? Thank you.

謝謝。嗨，Wael 和 Sinead，你們好。我想了解在目前這種環境下，煉油與化工業務在接下來一段時間會如何發展。我的意思是，你們在亞洲有相當大的布局——在亞洲。能否談談兩個業務在原料取得、資產如何運轉，以及利潤率目前處於什麼水準？謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, again, we'll touch on that. Actually, our footprint in particular in Asia is more limited these days, Alastair, after, in particular, the sale of our Singapore chemical and refining footprint that we had there. But the same question that you had applied, of course, into Europe as we are trying to make sure that we keep our refineries fed with crude, which of course, when you have a 12% to 15% cut in overall supplies just becomes difficult. Or if you can get access to the crude, it's tough to be able to create value unless the cracks afford you that opportunity.

好的，我的意思是，我們會再談到這點。其實，Alastair，近年來我們在亞洲的布局更為有限，尤其是在出售我們在新加坡的化工與煉油資產之後。但你提出的同樣問題當然也適用於歐洲，因為我們正努力確保煉油廠有足夠原油供應；而當整體供應量削減 12% 到 15% 時，這就變得困難。或者即使能取得原油，除非裂解價差（cracks）提供機會，否則也很難創造價值。

One of the biggest benefits we have, not just for our refining and chemicals, but also for our mobility organization, is of course the strength of our trading and optimization capability. I think if there is a capability around the world that is able to take advantage of volatility, it is our capability. And you see our people are unlocking value. Q1 shows you that. I think that's really key.

我們最大的優勢之一，不僅在煉油與化工，也包括我們的移動出行（mobility）組織，當然就是我們強大的交易與最佳化能力。我認為，如果世界上有一種能力能夠利用波動，那就是我們的能力。你也看到我們的團隊正在釋放價值。第一季就證明了這點。我認為這非常關鍵。

I think on this broader question around chemicals. This -- what you have heard us say also in the past is we are going to do everything we can to be able to do the self-help that we need in our chemicals business. And hopefully you see some of that playing into Q1 results. We have taken out and plan to continue to take out hundreds of millions of dollars from OpEx and CapEx in chemicals. We're improving the reliability. Q1, excluding working capital, was free cash flow positive. So good early signs. We're not there yet.

我想就化工這個更廣泛的問題來說。我們過去也說過，我們會盡一切努力，在化工業務上做我們需要的自救（self-help）。希望你們在第一季的結果中也看到一些反映。我們已經削減，並計畫持續在化工的營運支出（OpEx）與資本支出（CapEx）中削減數億美元。我們正在提升可靠性。第一季在扣除營運資金因素後，自由現金流為正。所以是好的早期跡象。但我們還沒到位。

Q2, you'll have a bit more of a tailwind, and that's partly because the margins are improving, and of course, you have the lag price effect also playing in chemicals. What we have also looked at is that this is an opportune time now to be able to build momentum around the plans that we laid out in Capital Markets Day, and that's specifically to progress either the sale or some form of capital market transaction in particular of our US chemicals business, the predominance of our capital employed.

第二季你們會有更多順風，部分原因是利潤率正在改善，當然化工也會受到價格滯後效應的影響。我們也認為，現在是個合適的時機，可以推動我們在資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）所提出計畫的動能，特別是推進我們美國化工業務的出售，或某種形式的資本市場交易；那部分也是我們投入資本的主要所在。

And so we are leaning into that, but we will only move forward on that if we see long-term value creation for our shareholders. So We lean into it, and we will see what the results are. But it's a good time to be doing that now.

因此我們會積極推進，但只有在我們看到能為股東創造長期價值時，才會繼續往前走。所以我們會投入其中，並看看結果如何。但現在確實是做這件事的好時機。

Thanks for the question, Alastair. If we can go to the next questions, please, Luke.

謝謝你的問題，Alastair。Luke，請進入下一個問題。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Wael, I wonder if I could go back to the Alaska question really quick, and go back maybe a year or two ago when you said you had no intention of going back to areas of exploration that you weren't already in. Well, you kind of walked away from Alaska several years ago, and now you're one of the high bidders on a new lease round. Can you just frame for us what your thinking is? Is frontier new area exploration back on the table, and what are your thoughts on Alaska specifically? I've got a quick follow-up for Sinead.

謝謝。各位早安。Wael，我想很快回到阿拉斯加的問題，回到大概一兩年前，你曾說過你無意回到你們原本不在的勘探區域。但你們幾年前其實退出了阿拉斯加，而現在你們卻成為新一輪租賃招標中的高價競標者之一。你能否為我們說明你們的思考脈絡？前沿新區域的勘探是否又回到議程上？以及你們對阿拉斯加具體有何看法？我還有一個要問 Sinead 的追問。

Yeah, go for the follow-up, Doug, and then I'll address the first one and pass the second one to Sinead. Go for it.

好的，Doug，你先追問，然後我會回答第一個問題，第二個再交給 Sinead。請說。

Yeah. Thanks. My follow-up is just on the pace of the expected pace of the working capital wind down. Obviously, it's a big headwind this quarter, but obviously transitory. But Sinead, I think you also said at the Strategy Update that you didn't expect the leases to continue to increase, but yet they have continued to increase. So I'm just wondering if you can walk us through the dynamic of what's going on there.

好的。謝謝。我的追問是關於預期營運資金回落（wind down）的速度。顯然這一季是很大的逆風，但也顯然是暫時性的。但 Sinead，我記得你在策略更新時也說過，你不預期租賃（leases）會繼續增加，但它們卻仍在增加。所以我想請你帶我們了解一下，這背後的動態到底是怎麼回事。

Yeah, Doug, thanks for the questions. Let me take the first one. I think if you look at our history in Alaska, of course, it was much more offshore Alaska. What we have gone into is onshore Alaska, and it's important to recognize how we've gone into it. We have -- we are not an operated venture. We are a non-operated player in that, and Repsol is in the lead because Repsol has deep experience in Alaska.

好的，Doug，謝謝你的問題。我先回答第一個。如果你看我們在阿拉斯加的歷史，當然過去更多是在阿拉斯加的離岸。而我們這次進入的是阿拉斯加的陸上，重點是要理解我們是如何進入的。我們——我們不是營運方的合資案。我們在其中是非營運方（non-operated）的參與者，而 Repsol 是主導方，因為 Repsol 在阿拉斯加有深厚經驗。

They have it, and they've inherited, of course, from the acquisition of Talisman. They have production coming on stream, either already come on stream or imminently in some of those areas. These are not frontier areas. These are well-proven producing resource basins, which is what gives us the comfort to be able to play and why we have been comfortable going in as an NOV partner, as a non-operated venture partner, rather than an operated venture, so that we can double down on Repsol's experience in that regard. Sinead?

他們具備這些能力，而且當然也承接自收購 Talisman 而來。他們在其中一些區域已有產量投產，或即將在短期內投產。這些並不是前沿地區。這些是已被充分驗證、正在生產的資源盆地；這也是讓我們有信心參與的原因，以及為什麼我們願意以 NOV 夥伴、也就是非營運合資夥伴的身分進入，而不是成為營運方，讓我們能加倍利用 Repsol 在這方面的經驗。Sinead？

Thank you. Thanks, Doug. There were two parts. You mentioned up front, first of all, working capital, and then you moved to leases. I think just on working capital, one of the things I would say is, yes, there is a sizable amount of working capital, of course, for us, this quarter at over $11 billion. A significant proportion, the majority of that is actually, of course, price related. So therefore, as prices change, you will see that flow back in, and that was in sort of pre-prepared remarks that I made earlier as well. So looking forward to that coming back in.

謝謝。謝謝你，Doug。你提到兩個部分。你一開始先提到營運資金，接著又談到租賃（leases）。先談營運資金，我想說的是：是的，本季我們的營運資金規模相當大，超過 110 億美元。其中相當大的一部分、而且是多數，其實當然是與價格相關。因此，隨著價格變動，你會看到這部分回流；我在先前預先準備的發言中也提到過。所以我們也期待它回流。

With respect to the leases, indeed, how we use leases. Our leases are predominantly in service of the underlying businesses of both our deepwater business, so through either the FPSOs or the rigs, or secondly, through ships and vessels. Some pipelines as well, but those are the two areas that you typically see them flow through. They're normally either in our upstream or related to the various trading businesses. So our leases, as you've said, are quite a significant amount.

關於租賃，確實，我們如何使用租賃。我們的租賃主要是為我們深水業務的底層業務服務，因此要麼是透過 FPSO 或鑽井平台，其次則是透過船舶與各類船隻。也有一些管線，但通常你會看到租賃主要流向這兩個領域。它們通常不是在我們的上游業務中，就是與各種交易業務相關。所以如你所說，我們的租賃規模相當可觀。

You saw it go up this quarter. Why did it go up this quarter? It was predominantly one lease that came through. It was the Baltic lease. You've seen some of it, I think, in news reports from other people as well. But what occurred, in effect, is it's a variable lease, which we have some hedges in place against, et cetera. But the way you have to account for that lease under IFRS 16 is you have to take the pricing on the spot rate, and you value the whole of the future lease at that, and that's what hits.

你看到本季它上升了。為什麼本季會上升？主要是因為有一筆租賃進來。那是波羅的海租賃。我想你也在其他人的新聞報導中看到一些相關內容。但實際上發生的是：這是一筆浮動租賃，我們也針對它做了一些避險等等。但在 IFRS 16 之下，你必須用即期（現貨）價格來對該租賃定價，並以此對整個未來租期進行估值，而入帳的就是這個影響。

Therefore, you saw gearing being impacted up 1%, and you saw the actual number just over $3 billion going up on our gearing. Now, of course, I somehow doubt personally that that will occur throughout the whole length of that, but that is the accounting approach of it. So indeed, we use leases to continue to increase value. But this one is one that is simply an accounting artifact.

因此，你看到槓桿比率受到影響上升了 1%，也看到我們槓桿相關的實際數字增加了略高於 30 億美元。當然，我個人多少懷疑這種情況是否會在整個租期都持續，但這就是其會計處理方式。所以確實，我們使用租賃來持續提升價值。但這一筆只是會計上的假象（artifact）。

Thanks, Sinead. Doug, thank you for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Doug，謝謝你的提問。Luke，請進行下一個問題。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

Lydia Rainforth，巴克萊。

Thank you, and good afternoon to you both. And again, congratulations on the strong operating performance. I've got two questions. They are slightly linked a little bit. But on the first one, clearly the share price is up this year, but maybe not as much as we would all have hoped and particularly compared to some of the others. So very simple question. Are you feeling a little misunderstood at the moment in terms of the strategy side?

謝謝，兩位午安。也再次恭喜你們強勁的營運表現。我有兩個問題。它們彼此有一點關聯。第一個問題很明顯，今年股價上漲了，但也許沒有我們大家所希望的那麼多，尤其是相較於其他一些公司。所以很簡單的問題：就策略面而言，你們是否覺得目前有點被市場誤解？

And then secondly, if I come back to the spending and the CapEx side and a little bit on the ARC acquisition, I mean are we -- when you think about you spend $16 billion and it closes some of the gap to 2035, but not all of what you want to? I agree, you've got a lot of time, and you've got a lot of cash, you've got a lot of options. But are we actually now thinking that underlying the kind of CapEx that you need to rebuild the business is a bit higher than you've given previously? Thanks.

第二個問題回到支出與資本支出（CapEx），以及 ARC 收購的一點相關：當你想到你們花了 160 億美元，確實縮小了到 2035 年的部分差距，但並非全部達到你們想要的程度？我同意，你們還有很多時間、很多現金，也有很多選項。但我們現在是否其實在想：為了重建業務所需的基礎 CapEx，可能比你們先前給出的水準要更高一些？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Lydia. I think let's tag team on this one, Sinead. I'll give a bit of a perspective and then share with you. I've learned, Lydia, not to be disappointed or excited by the market. What I've learned to do is to make sure that we focus on what it is that we can control, and what is it that we can control at the moment. I think our operational performance, in particular in times of volatility, leveraging our trading, does mean that we are able to create real value and drive cash at times like this, which is something which I think we can do better than, I would argue, anyone else.

是的。謝謝你，Lydia。我想這題我們分工回答，Sinead。我先提供一些觀點，然後再請你補充。Lydia，我學到的是，不要因市場而失望或興奮。我學到的是要確保我們專注在我們能控制的事情上，而目前我們能控制的是什麼？我認為我們的營運表現，特別是在波動時期，透過發揮我們的交易能力，確實意味著我們能在這種時候創造實質價值並帶來現金流；我認為這點我們做得比任何人都更好。

This affords us the opportunity to be able to continue to strengthen our overall financial framework. And we have huge confidence in where this business is going. Of course, Arc adds a level of growth that is a decadal growth for us. And if we take a final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2, that's even more opportunity for growth. But what we can do is make sure that then we are allocating capital in the best way possible. And that is through the cycle.

這讓我們有機會持續強化整體財務框架。而我們對這項業務的發展方向非常有信心。當然，Arc 為我們帶來一個以十年為尺度的成長層級。如果我們對 LNG Canada 第二期做出最終投資決策（FID），那就有更多成長機會。但我們能做的是確保以最佳方式配置資本。而且是在整個景氣循環中都如此。

And so for me, what excites me about the mispricing, as you call it, the misunderstanding, is that it affords us a unique opportunity to continue to lean in on buybacks as and when the opportunities come in. And the best example of this is just look at what we've done over the last four years. In the last four years, we have bought back $65 billion of shares, and we've bought it against that average price at a premium that essentially translates to 20%-plus IRR.

所以對我而言，你所稱的錯價（mispricing）、誤解，其實讓我們有一個獨特機會：在有機會時持續加碼回購。最好的例子就是看看我們過去四年做了什麼。在過去四年，我們回購了 650 億美元的股票，而以那個平均價格回購所對應的溢價，基本上換算成超過 20% 的內部報酬率（IRR）。

Just doing the basic math of 2 billion shares bought back over this period and where the share price has gone. Those are the opportunities when we talk about being value hunters that we want to go for, and we will wait patiently to create those opportunities on a life cycle basis.

只要做個基本算術：這段期間回購了 20 億股，以及股價後續的走勢。當我們談到要做價值獵人（value hunters）時，這些就是我們想把握的機會；我們也會耐心等待，在整個生命週期的角度去創造這些機會。

Sinead.

Sinead。

Indeed, I think exactly where I would have gone to as well, I would have said, just to add, Lydia, we've taken that extra cash, the additional cash we put to the balance sheet, I told you we would use it to buy additional shares when the opportunity arose. So feel free to keep mispricing and misunderstanding us, I'll very happily buy back the shares, and that's what we'll do at that point.

確實，我想我也會往同樣的方向回答。我想補充一下，Lydia：我們把那筆額外現金、我們放到資產負債表上的額外現金，我之前告訴過你，我們會在機會出現時用來回購更多股票。所以請盡量繼續錯價、繼續誤解我們吧，我會非常樂意回購股票，而到那個時點我們也會這麼做。

You talked about the second question, if that's okay. The spending and CapEx, and I think what you were saying is we've -- through Arc, we've looked to close the gap to 2035, and do we believe that we'll need to increase our spend levels? I think what I would simply say, Lydia, is that since we had our Capital Markets Day, which wasn't that long ago as you know, we've managed to close the gap that we'd mentioned to 2030, and we've got considerable way there -- actually most of the way there to 2035.

你提到第二個問題，如果可以的話我來回答。關於支出與 CapEx，以及我想你在問的是：透過 Arc，我們試圖縮小到 2035 年的差距，那我們是否認為需要提高支出水準？我想我只想簡單說，Lydia，自從我們舉辦資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）以來——如你所知那也不是很久以前——我們已經把先前提到的到 2030 年的差距補上了，而且到 2035 年也已經走了相當一段路——其實已經大部分都到位了。

If you combine that with what this company seems to do every single month in terms of increasing production and ensuring that we go after every single barrel, I'm pretty comfortable that there will be no gap that we need to follow through on. In terms of spend levels, our spend level is $20 billion to $22 billion, is the CapEx that we've put forward. We've told you that with Arc, we will go up this year to, as we've said already, '24 to '26, and we've told you that we will absorb the additional Arc CapEx, assuming it closes, for 2027 and 2028.

如果再加上這家公司似乎每個月都在做的事：提升產量並確保我們追逐每一桶油，我相當有信心，我們不會再有需要去補的缺口。就支出水準而言，我們提出的 CapEx 是 200 億到 220 億美元。我們也告訴你，隨著 Arc，今年我們會如先前所說在 2024 到 2026 年提高；並且我們也告訴你，假設交易完成，我們將在 2027 與 2028 年吸收 Arc 額外的 CapEx。

And I would remind you that in there, in every year so far, we've been able to do small scale, inorganic opportunities as well. You know our runway is well below that, so I'm very comfortable that we can continue to maximize value within the CapEx spend that we have and be able to deploy capital to where it's best placed.

我也提醒你，到目前為止每一年，我們也都能進行小規模的非有機機會。你知道我們的跑道（runway）遠低於那個水準，所以我非常有信心，我們能在既定的 CapEx 支出內持續把價值最大化，並把資本配置到最適合的地方。

Thank you, Sinead. Lydia, thank you for those questions. Lou, can we go to the next questions, please?

謝謝你，Sinead。Lydia，謝謝你的提問。Lou，我們可以請下一位提問嗎？

Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

Alejandro Vigil，Santander。

Hello, thank you for taking my questions. And the first one is about the strong marketing results this quarter. In the statement, you quote the trading and optimization was very good. If there is also a component of savings in the quarter that could be recurring for the coming quarters. That will be the first one.

你好，謝謝讓我提問。第一個問題是關於本季強勁的行銷業績。在聲明中，你們提到交易與最佳化表現非常好。想請問本季是否也有一些節省成本的因素，且可能在接下來幾季持續出現。這是第一個問題。

And the second one is about Venezuela. You have been very active in the media in terms of gas projects there. If you can elaborate about the opportunity there. Thank you.

第二個問題是關於委內瑞拉。你們在當地天然氣專案方面在媒體上相當活躍。能否進一步說明那裡的機會？謝謝。

Thanks. I will, Alejandro, take the second one. Maybe, Sinead, if you want to take marketing and more broadly how you see the next quarter as well.

謝謝。Alejandro，第二個問題我來回答。Sinead，如果你願意的話，請你回答行銷，以及更廣泛地談談你對下一季的看法。

Sure, happy to.

當然，很樂意。

Look, Venezuela, as we've talked about in the past outstanding resource. But we will play in the areas where we have competitive advantages, competitive strengths. We have a long and proud history in Venezuela, and we're pleased to have the opportunity to be able to contribute to the Venezuelan people.

你看，委內瑞拉，如同我們過去談過的，資源非常出色。但我們會在我們具備競爭優勢、競爭強項的領域參與。我們在委內瑞拉有悠久且值得自豪的歷史，也很高興有機會能為委內瑞拉人民做出貢獻。

Where we think we have particular, call it advantages, is when it comes to offshore gas. And so indeed, we have been in discussions with the Venezuelan government on opportunities to be able to monetize some of that gas, which has been long stranded out there, and ideally find the pathway to be able to monetize it through Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago. That is where our priority is.

我們認為我們特別具備優勢的地方，是離岸天然氣。因此，確實我們一直在與委內瑞拉政府討論相關機會，以便將部分長期被擱置的天然氣資源變現，並理想上找到一條途徑，透過千里達及托巴哥的 Atlantic LNG 來實現變現。這是我們的優先事項。

Our current heads of agreement also encompasses some other areas which we are looking at onshore, but those are opportunities which I think will take quite some time to gestate. So we're very much focused on those offshore gas opportunities for now, and we'll need to work through the coming months to be able to bring them to life.

我們目前的協議要點也涵蓋了一些我們正在評估的陸上領域，但我認為那些機會需要相當長的時間才能成熟。所以目前我們非常專注於這些離岸天然氣機會，並且需要在接下來幾個月推進相關工作，讓它們真正落地。

Sinead.

Sinead。

Yeah. And in terms of results overall. So first of all, you mentioned marketing had a great quarter. It did, absolutely, without a doubt. It was good in-moment decision-making, frankly, to be able to optimize. And if I look at our lubricants business, they did a fantastic job, particularly when they lost actually some of their supply from Pearl in March as well. So just some really good decisions there. Of course, mobility, a little bit tougher as you can expect with higher prices.

是的。就整體結果而言。首先，你提到行銷本季表現很出色。確實如此，毫無疑問。坦白說，這得益於當下的決策做得很好，才能夠進行最佳化。如果我看我們的潤滑油業務，他們做得非常棒，尤其是在三月其實也失去了一部分來自 Pearl 的供應之後。所以那裡做出了一些非常好的決策。當然，移動出行（Mobility）在價格較高時會更具挑戰，這也在預期之中。

Let's just talk about Q2 going forward then and what we see from that. You've seen some of our numbers that we've given a bit of an advanced look on. What we see for a company like ours is that integrated nature really plays out. So you've got the benefit of the assets from both an Upstream and Integrated Gas against that of Downstream. And then you add on top of that, of course, the layering of that capability of trading and optimization, and that's where it really comes through.

那我們談談接下來的第二季，以及我們看到的情況。你已經看到我們提供的一些數字，我們也提前給了一點展望。對像我們這樣的公司而言，我們的一體化特性會充分發揮作用。也就是說，你同時享有上游與綜合天然氣資產的效益，並與下游形成對沖。再加上交易與最佳化能力的疊加，效果就會在這裡真正顯現。

So whilst we will see things like an Integrated Gas, we will see some more challenges in the second quarter in terms of the volumes coming through because of what's occurring in Qatar. We also see the benefit of the price slide coming through as well. If I then look at Downstream, and particularly Marketing, which is what you referred to, Marketing, of course, and particularly Mobility, when prices are high, that's when it's a little bit more challenging. You see the squeeze of the margins coming through. But those get offset, of course, in other parts of the business. So you end up across the integrated portfolio having a very much advantageous position is the way I would put it.

因此，雖然在綜合天然氣方面，我們在第二季會因卡達正在發生的情況而在產量（volumes）上面臨更多挑戰。但我們也會看到價格回落帶來的好處。如果我再看下游，特別是你提到的行銷業務，行銷當然，尤其是移動出行（Mobility），在價格高的時候會更具挑戰。你會看到利潤率受到擠壓。但這些影響當然會被業務的其他部分所抵消。因此，放在整體一體化投資組合來看，我會說我們處於相當有利的位置。

Thanks, Sinead. Alejandro, thank you for those questions. Lou, next questions, please.

謝謝，Sinead。Alejandro，謝謝你的提問。Lou，請下一個問題。

Joshua Stone, UBS.

Joshua Stone，UBS。

Yeah, thanks and good afternoon. Just one question on Australia, because there was some news overnight that the government is looking at requiring exporters to reserve 20% of exports in the domestic market on the East Coast. So are you able to provide any initial comments of how that might impact your business and your assets in the country? Particularly interested in the Crux gas field given, as far as I'm aware, that's backfilling Prelude, I don't believe there's a domestic route for that project. But just, yeah, curious as what you're seeing there. Thanks.

是的，謝謝，下午好。我只有一個關於澳洲的問題，因為昨晚有一些消息指出政府正在考慮要求出口商將 20% 的出口量保留在東岸的國內市場。你們能否先提供一些初步看法，這可能會如何影響你們在當地的業務與資產？我特別關心 Crux 氣田，因為據我所知，那是用來回填 Prelude 的供應，我不認為該專案有供應國內市場的路徑。不過就是想了解一下你們目前看到的情況。謝謝。

Thanks, Josh. I think long story short, early days. We have indeed, we're still in the process of absorbing the announcement. Not massively surprising, by the way, but there's still quite a few details we are still awaiting, including the implementation.

謝謝，Josh。簡而言之，現在還在早期階段。我們確實仍在消化這項公告。順帶一提，這並不算非常令人意外，但我們仍在等待不少細節，包括如何落實執行。

Remember, we are already at close to 15%-plus of our overall production goes into the domestic market. So the requirement of 16% or so going into the domestic market, is not a massive difference for us. Crux indeed is locked into LNG term contracts, eventually or even flexible contracts because it goes into our portfolio. So we hope to be able to have more than enough gas to be able to supply Crux LNG.

請記得，我們目前已經有接近 15% 以上的總產量供應國內市場。因此，要求約 16% 左右供應國內市場，對我們而言差異並不大。Crux 的確已被鎖定在 LNG 長期合約之中，最終甚至也可能是彈性合約，因為它會進入我們的投資組合。所以我們希望能有綽綽有餘的天然氣供應，以支援 Crux 的 LNG。

I think this is the Australian government trying to find the right balance between LNG exports and domestic support, something which we have been doing for quite some time, and I think this is to bring the entire industry on the same page.

我認為澳洲政府是在嘗試在 LNG 出口與國內供應支持之間找到適當的平衡；這其實是我們長期以來一直在做的事情，而我想這是要讓整個產業都能步調一致。

Thanks for the question, Josh. Luke, can we have the next caller, please?

謝謝你的問題，Josh。Luke，請下一位來電者。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

Christopher Kuplent，美國銀行。

Well, I think 5% DPS growth is the headline we are missing because it's quite a significant shift from, I think the last few years where you've been warning about, I think you once called it the sugar rush of giving the market a quick increase in dividends. But your publishing today, in my view, is significant, so maybe you can talk around that a little bit and explain to us the comments you've already made together with Sinead now on saving firepower to do more share buybacks in the future, cutting them today, and instead raising the dividend. Is that a new template? Should we now expect DPS to be raised more often than once per year?

我認為我們忽略的重點標題是每股股利（DPS）成長 5%，因為這相較於過去幾年是相當顯著的轉變；你們之前一直在提醒市場，我記得你曾把快速提高股利稱為「糖分衝刺」（sugar rush）。但我看你們今天公布的內容很重要，所以也許你們可以多談談，並解釋一下：你們剛才與 Sinead 提到要保留火力，以便未來做更多庫藏股回購；今天卻削減回購、改為提高股利。這是一個新的範本嗎？我們是否應該預期 DPS 會比一年一次更頻繁地上調？

Great question, Christopher. Again, I think it's one maybe we tag team on, Sinead. Give you the floor first, and then I can supplement.

很好的問題，Christopher。我想這題我們可以一起回答，Sinead。先把時間交給你，然後我再補充。

Happy to. And thanks, Chris. It gives me a good opportunity to probably debunk some of the myths that I've seen coming through on some of the write-ups as well you articulated it well. But let me just first and foremost get us to the point that's to remind you that everything we do is in pursuit of long-term value creation. That's the start. Remind you that 40% to 50% is sacrosanct in terms of the distributions, and that's what we're staying within.

很樂意。也謝謝你，Chris。這也讓我有個很好的機會，去澄清我在一些報告解讀中看到的若干迷思，而你也把重點表達得很到位。不過首先、也是最重要的，是先提醒各位：我們所做的一切，都是為了追求長期價值創造。這是起點。也提醒各位，在股東回饋（分配）方面，40%到50%是不可動搖的原則，而我們會維持在這個區間內。

So when you talk about either distributions or the balance sheet, they're intrinsically linked between the two. So back to the dividend, and you used the term sugar rush because we have used that before. We take the dividend incredibly seriously. With the dividend, what are we doing here? That 5% increase is reflecting the confidence we have in the long-term duration of the cash flows of this company. That's what it's doing.

所以當你談到股東回饋或資產負債表時，兩者本質上是緊密相連的。回到股利，你用了「糖分衝擊」這個詞，因為我們之前也用過。我們非常嚴肅地看待股利。就股利而言，我們在做什麼？這次5%的調升，反映的是我們對這家公司長期現金流持續性的信心。這就是它所代表的意義。

Secondly, what are we doing on the share buybacks? Look, pleased that some of the hard work is showing up in the share price, but some of it, we still think they're undervalued. I last used the word, egregiously before. Less egregiously than before, but not all of it has made its way in. So we're continuing to do share buybacks and continuing to do $3 billion, and that's a significant amount.

第二，我們在股票回購上做了什麼？坦白說，很高興一些努力已反映在股價上，但我們仍認為其中一部分仍被低估。我上次用過「嚴重低估（egregiously）」這個詞。現在沒有之前那麼嚴重，但還沒有完全反映到位。因此我們會持續進行股票回購，並且持續做30億美元，這是一個相當可觀的金額。

But what we're also doing is taking that extra or additional cash, and we're allocating it to the balance sheet. But that's been allocated to the balance sheet in service of giving us the ability to do additional share buybacks when the moment is right. This is about dynamic capital allocation. It's that rebalancing that's occurring. It's not rebasing, it's rebalancing that's occurring. And we're moving that across.

但我們同時也把那筆額外或新增的現金配置到資產負債表上。而配置到資產負債表的目的，是為了讓我們在時機成熟時，具備進一步加碼股票回購的能力。這就是動態資本配置。正在發生的是再平衡。不是重新定基（rebasing），而是再平衡（rebalancing）。我們正在把資金在各項用途之間移動調整。

Thank you very much, Sinead. Very little to add, Christopher. I mean, the point I'd make is it was a quarter ago when Sinead and I stood here. Share price was around 15%-plus lower than what it is today. If we are going to be prudent, long-term, value-oriented capital allocators, not looking at how we are able to indeed build the capacity to be able to not just do what we've done, but hopefully even do more and find those opportunities when there is a mispricing or when we feel that the market is just not being able to fully understand the underlying value, which we asymmetrically are able to see through the cash flow dynamics we see into the future.

非常感謝你，Sinead。Christopher，我補充的不多。我的重點是，就在一個季度前，Sinead和我站在這裡時，股價比今天大約低了15%以上。如果我們要成為審慎、長期、以價值為導向的資本配置者，我們就不能只看眼前；我們必須建立能力，不僅能做我們已經做過的事，還希望能做得更多，並在出現錯價、或市場無法充分理解內在價值時把握機會——而我們能透過對未來現金流動態的觀察，以不對稱的方式看見這個價值。

And all of this is still built on what we think are further opportunities that we still have to be able to drive top-line improvement, improve the bottom line through cost takeout. And not to mention the great opportunities we are having, whether it is through some potential negotiated deals, Venezuela was mentioned, but there are others, or just organically unlocking more from what we have. All of that underpins that confidence we are showing. But if you want to be that long-term value-oriented company, then we have to be able to not be pro-cyclical, and we have to have the courage to move in times like this, which is why I'm really proud of where the Board's decision was on this one.

而這一切仍建立在我們認為自己還有更多機會的基礎上：推動營收端改善、透過成本削減改善獲利端。更不用說我們正在把握的重大機會——不論是一些可能的協商交易（有人提到委內瑞拉，但還有其他），或是透過有機方式從既有資產中釋放更多價值。這些都支撐了我們所展現的信心。但如果你想成為一家長期、以價值為導向的公司，我們就必須避免順週期操作（pro-cyclical），並且要有勇氣在像現在這樣的時點採取行動；這也是為什麼我對董事會在這件事上的決策感到非常自豪。

Thank you. Can we go to the next question, please, Luke?

謝謝。Luke，請進下一個問題？

Lucas Herrmann, BNP Paribas Exane.

Lucas Herrmann，法國巴黎銀行Exane。

Yeah. Thanks very much. Well, Sinead, good afternoon. A couple if I might. But the first one, I'm going to need some help, I think, with the Integrated Gas business, given there are so many moving parts going into the next quarter. Obviously, we've got an extra two months, or I shouldn't say obviously, but it's likely we'll have an extra two months when the GTL facilities are both out of action. And I presume you had some inventory that you were at least able to use and benefit from as you went through March.

是的。非常感謝。Sinead，下午好。如果可以的話我有幾個問題。第一個我想需要你幫忙解讀一下整合式天然氣（Integrated Gas）業務，因為接下來一季有很多變動因素。顯然——我不該說顯然，但看起來很可能——GTL設施兩套都停運的情況下，我們會多出兩個月的影響。我推測你們至少有一些庫存，讓你們在3月期間能夠使用並從中受益。

So to what extent does that impact the sensitivity to moves in prices? And aligned with that, I've had a month down in Qatar, but it looks as though you're going to on-stream that LNG now or Q4 '25, whichever. How does that impact? So really just help about thinking between price and sensitivity between outages, et cetera, et cetera, how I really should be thinking about the Integrated Gas business.

那麼這在多大程度上會影響對價格變動的敏感度？另外與此相關，我在卡達待了一個月，但看起來你們會讓那個LNG在2025年第四季（或類似時點）投產。這會帶來什麼影響？所以主要是想請你們協助我理解：在停產（outages）等因素下，價格與敏感度之間的關係——我應該如何看待整合式天然氣業務。

And then, Wael, if I could, can I just come back to the comments you made about chemicals, particularly North America, which I'd say are the most conducive towards moving to a place where maybe you can find agreement with other parties. Just as you sit here today, I mean, what's happened to oil suggests that ethane margin businesses are going to be better positioned, shall we say, near term, medium term, depends in part on view on price. Are you -- actually are you seeing greater interest or are people that you've been in conversation with around chemicals in recent months over the last year knocking on doors again? Why the more upbeat tone? That was it. Thank you.

然後如果可以的話，Wael，我想回到你對化學品的評論，特別是北美；我會說那裡最有利於推進到一個也許能與其他方達成共識的位置。就你們目前所見，油價的走勢顯示，以乙烷為原料、賺取利差的業務（ethane margin businesses）在短期到中期可能會更有利——當然也部分取決於對價格的看法。你們是否真的看到更高的興趣？或是過去幾個月到一年間與你們就化學品有過接觸的對象，又開始重新上門洽談？為什麼語氣更樂觀？就這些。謝謝。

So/ I'll take the second one and then maybe Sinead, if you want to take the first. I think why the upbeat tone, there's a couple of things at play, Lucas. I think, one, as we continue to fine-tune the operation and the reliability of the asset, you are just seeing much more the full potential of the asset, which allows us then to move into the market as well. So we've had a very good run of over recent months and expect that to continue. So that's a good point to be thinking about. If you do not see the strategic fit of chemicals into your portfolio, it's a good time to be able to act when you've de-risked quality operations.

那我先回答第二個，然後Sinead，如果你願意的話再回答第一個。Lucas，關於為什麼語氣更樂觀，我認為有幾個因素在起作用。第一，隨著我們持續微調營運並提升資產的可靠性，你會更清楚看到資產的完整潛力，這也讓我們能更積極地走向市場。因此我們在過去幾個月表現非常好，並預期這樣的態勢會延續。這是一個值得納入思考的重點。如果你認為化學品在你的投資組合中不具策略契合度，那麼在你已把高品質營運去風險化之後，現在是採取行動的好時機。

I think the second point you touched on is exactly right. Ethane-based crackers, in particular one like this one, which is already significantly advantaged at the lowest end of the cost curve in the right zip code in the US with the right fiscal environment, is attractive. And we know the attractiveness has gone up, and of course, that tailwind does mean that you can move from discussing bottom of cycle conditions at a transaction to potentially more mid-cycle conditions, which is what, as a minimum, we would need to be able to see.

第二點，你提到的完全正確。以乙烷為原料的裂解廠（ethane-based crackers），特別是像這一座——在成本曲線的最低端具備顯著優勢、位於美國合適的地理位置（zip code）、且擁有合適的財政／稅務環境——是很有吸引力的。我們也知道其吸引力已經提高；當然，這股順風意味著，你可以從在交易中討論「景氣循環底部」的條件，轉向可能更接近「中周期」的條件，而至少這是我們需要看到的。

I would also say that a Capital Markets transaction is another option we continue to have, of course, and we will develop that seriously to be able to make sure that we can balance those two options and do what's best for our shareholders at the end of the day. I hope one of them works out. But we will make sure that if neither does, because it's not creating the value for our shareholders, that we don't execute. But we are going to be very focused on creating the optionality now.

我也想說，資本市場交易當然也是我們持續擁有的另一個選項，我們會認真推進，確保能在這兩個選項之間取得平衡，並在最後做出對股東最有利的決定。我希望其中一個能夠成行。但我們也會確保，如果兩者都不行，因為它們無法為股東創造價值，我們就不會執行。不過，我們現在會非常專注於創造選擇性。

Sinead.

Sinead。

Thanks, Lucas. Indeed, Integrated Gas in Q2 is slightly more complex. So two aspects to it. First and foremost, Pearl, and then let's talk about LNG. Both sit within the integrated gas segment as well. So on Pearl, indeed, this is really about the two trains. One train will definitely be out for the quarter. That is clear. That's the one that is damaged and needs to be repaired, and we've talked about that previously. The other train could be up and running, but it's more about the ability, as you say, to be able to evacuate through the Strait.

謝謝，Lucas。確實，第二季的整合天然氣（Integrated Gas）情況稍微更複雜一些。所以有兩個面向。首先也是最重要的是 Pearl，然後我們再談 LNG。兩者也都屬於整合天然氣部門。就 Pearl 而言，確實主要是關於兩套液化裝置（trains）。其中一套在本季肯定會停運。這點很清楚。那一套是受損需要維修的，我們之前也談過。另一套可能可以恢復運轉，但更關鍵的是，如你所說，是否有能力透過海峽把貨物疏運出去。

And I'll leave you to make the assumption of when that will actually be and how long that will take to clear all of those vessels and actually be able to move it through. So that will be a loss in terms of the income coming through from that perspective.

至於實際何時能做到、以及需要多久才能清空所有船舶並真正能夠通行，我就留給你自行假設。因此，從這個角度來看，相關收入流入會有所損失。

And then we have the LNG side of things. Of course, our LNG business across the world is doing very well in terms of keeping those volumes up, making sure that they're performing to the best that they can. They do have the lost volumes in terms of Qatargas, as you say, from that train that you mentioned previously.

接著是 LNG 的部分。當然，我們在全球的 LNG 業務在維持供應量、確保表現達到最佳方面做得非常好。如你所說，就你先前提到的那套裝置而言，Qatargas 方面確實會有一些供應量損失。

Again, if the Strait were opened, that would be able to be flowing, but it is not at this moment in time. However, the compensating impact of that, and by the way, you see that in the forecast we gave you in terms of the production and the volume numbers. But the compensating impact to that is, of course, where we see the price lag coming through.

同樣地，如果海峽開放，這些量就能夠輸送，但目前此刻尚未開放。不過，其補償性的影響——順帶一提，你可以在我們提供的產量與銷量預測數字中看到——其補償影響當然來自於我們看到的價格滯後效應開始反映。

And that's typically, as you know, the three months. Interestingly, TTF, JKM volatility is still less than we saw during Ukraine and Russia. But we do see the volatility there as well. So you do see that coming through in Q2, which helps versus the lost volumes.

而這通常如你所知，大約是三個月。有趣的是，TTF、JKM 的波動性仍低於我們在烏克蘭與俄羅斯事件期間看到的水準。但我們也確實看到波動存在。因此你會在第二季看到這個影響，對比供應量損失而言，這會有所幫助。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Lucas. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你，Lucas。Luke，請進行下一個問題。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had two, please. The first one is just the performance in your Lubricants business. It was particularly strong this quarter. It looks like the Q1 EBITDA was 30% higher than the highest result in the last two years. I'm just trying to understand, given Qatar supplies some of the base stocks, how we should think about the sustainability of that result. Is it a sort of temporary phenomenon and a mismatch between the cost and the revenues, or is there something genuinely changing in that market?

嗨。謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於你們潤滑油（Lubricants）業務的表現。本季特別強勁。看起來第一季 EBITDA 比過去兩年最高的結果還高出 30%。我想了解的是，鑑於卡達供應部分基礎油（base stocks），我們應該如何看待這個結果的可持續性。這是某種暫時現象、成本與收入之間的不匹配，還是市場真的正在發生一些變化？

And then secondly, just thinking about at the group level, if I look at your OpEx, and this is a very simplistic way to look at it, in absolute terms, it looks like the momentum has stalled a little bit. I know there's always some seasonality here, but for the last couple of quarters, group OpEx is starting to increase year-on-year. And I think when you first took over in 2023, there was very clear momentum there. Just trying to understand, is it just inflation eating away at some of the underlying gains, or is there something else to note there? Thank you.

第二個是從集團層面來看，如果我看你們的營運費用（OpEx）——這是一個非常簡化的看法——以絕對值來看，動能似乎有點停滯。我知道這裡總是有一些季節性因素，但在過去幾個季度，集團 OpEx 開始出現年增。而我認為你在 2023 年剛接任時，當時的動能非常明確。我想了解的是，這只是通膨侵蝕了部分底層改善成果，還是還有其他需要注意的因素？謝謝。

Thank you very much for that, Biraj. I'll take the second question and then Sinead, if you want to touch on Luke's question. So where are we on our journey? I think firstly maybe just the context around us. We're seeing at the moment somewhere in the range of 5%-plus inflationary pressure on supply chains, depending on which supply chain. Specifically, if you look at subsea equipment, FPSOs, you're seeing a lot more than that. In other areas, slightly lower. So we're working really hard to be able to offset some of those bumps.

非常感謝你，Biraj。我先回答第二個問題，然後 Sinead，如果你想回應 Luke 的問題也可以。那麼我們目前進展到哪裡？我想先談談我們周遭的背景。目前我們看到供應鏈面臨約 5% 以上的通膨壓力，視不同供應鏈而定。特別是如果你看海底設備、FPSO，你會看到遠高於這個水準。其他領域則略低一些。因此我們正非常努力地抵消其中一些波動。

Important to also recognize that, of course, of the $5 billion to $7 billion OpEx reduction that we talked about in Capital Markets Day 2025, we are already at $5.1 billion of that, the majority being non-portfolio related, so structural. And what you will also see is that we are very much going after the top end of that range now. So our organization is geared towards delivering the $7 billion. That will happen, of course, over the coming quarters. It's not linear, and that's important.

同時也要認知到，當然，我們在 2025 年資本市場日（Capital Markets Day 2025）談到的 50 億至 70 億美元 OpEx 降幅，我們目前已達到其中的 51 億美元，而且大多數與非投資組合（non-portfolio）相關，因此屬於結構性。你也會看到，我們現在非常明確地朝該區間的上緣推進。因此，我們的組織正以交付 70 億美元為目標來配置。這當然會在接下來幾個季度逐步實現。它不是線性的，這點很重要。

Just to compare Q1 '26 to Q1 '25, you're talking less than a 2% increase in overall OpEx, which if you look at the overall market inflation, you would say we're eating a significant portion of that inflation, and that just shows you the momentum we have in the base, not to mention some of the additional efforts, initiatives that we have that will bring the total down even further towards that $7 billion structural cost reduction.

如果只比較 26 年第一季與 25 年第一季，整體 OpEx 的增幅不到 2%；若對照整體市場通膨，你會說我們吸收了相當大一部分通膨，這也顯示我們在成本基礎上的動能，更不用說我們還有一些額外的努力與計畫，將使總額進一步下降，朝 70 億美元的結構性成本削減目標邁進。

Sinead.

Sinead。

Indeed. One add I would have on the OpEx side, of course, we've brought in a lot of new volumes as well. So if you talk about the Ursa acquisition, you talk about the one in Brazil, you talk about Nigeria, those also came with additional OpEx-which partners would have had as well. So great to see good OpEx being used to actually generate other cash flows as well.

是的。在 OpEx 方面我想補充一點：當然，我們也引入了許多新增的產量。所以如果你談 Ursa 的收購、談巴西那一筆、談奈及利亞，這些也都伴隨了額外的 OpEx——合作夥伴原本也會承擔的。因此，很高興看到合理的 OpEx 被用來創造其他現金流。

You asked about Lubricants in particular, Biraj, and yes, it was an incredibly strong quarter. Absolutely agree with you. Number of things sort of feeding into that as well because it's an interesting one, as you say. If you were to look at it and say actually they lost some of their feedstock towards the end of the quarter. It was towards the end of the quarter. There were some inventories in place, of course, that they were able to do. But actually, as a result of that, we saw some advance liftings from customers because they saw the problem and were worried about it. So we actually got the benefit of some advanced cash flows coming in on that as well.

你特別問到潤滑油，Biraj，是的，這確實是一個非常強勁的季度。我完全同意你的看法。也有多個因素共同推動，正如你所說，這是一個很有意思的情況。如果你去看，會說其實他們在季度末失去了一部分原料供應。確實是在季度末。當然，他們手上也有一些庫存可以運用。但實際上，因為這件事，我們看到客戶提前提貨，因為他們看到了問題並對此感到擔憂。因此，我們也從中受益，獲得了一些提前流入的現金流。

We also saw stable base oil coming through. They managed to reduce their OpEx, so back to your original question, I would say our Lubricants team have been very focused on reducing OpEx as well and driving that down. So some just really hard work. But they've been able to eke out just more and more every single quarter.

我們也看到基礎油供應保持穩定。他們成功降低了營運費用（OpEx），所以回到你最初的問題，我會說我們的潤滑油團隊也一直非常專注於降低營運費用並把它壓下來。所以有些就是非常辛苦的工作。但他們每一季都能一點一滴地擠出更多成果。

In saying that, Q2 is going to be more difficult for them because they do not have that premium product that they've had before. Working very well with customers to find alternatives and to make sure that where it's specifically needed, we get it to the right customer, et cetera. Great, combined work across the industry, I would say. But I do agree Q2 will be more challenging.

話雖如此，第二季對他們來說會更困難，因為他們不再有之前那款高溢價產品。他們與客戶合作得非常好，尋找替代方案，並確保在確實需要的地方，把產品送到正確的客戶手上等等。我會說這是全產業的良好協作。但我也同意，第二季會更具挑戰性。

Outside of this and what is occurring with Pearl, I would say our Lubricants business is really focused on driving higher and higher returns. So if you were to take the Qatar situation out, I would say that they will continue to be able to drive increasing and improved returns.

撇開這件事以及Pearl目前發生的狀況不談，我會說我們的潤滑油業務確實專注於推動越來越高的報酬。所以如果把卡達的情況拿掉，我會說他們將能持續推動報酬提升並改善。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Biraj, thank you for those questions. Luke, next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Biraj，也謝謝你的提問。Luke，請接下一位來電。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley的Martijn Rats。

Yeah, good afternoon. A lot of good questions have already been asked. Let me ask you two more. I was wondering if you could say a few words about LNG Canada and your continued ownership of the current stake. There have been some press reports in the last couple of weeks that there might be some sort of part of a sale down.

是的，下午好。很多好問題都已經被問過了。我再問兩個。我想請你談談LNG Canada，以及你們持續持有目前持股的情況。過去幾週有一些媒體報導，說可能會有某種部分出售（sell-down）。

And the other one, I recognize, it might be a bit tricky. If you don't want to answer it, I would totally appreciate it. But I wanted to raise this issue. Oil exports from the United States have been very, very high over the last couple of weeks, not only of crude oil, but also of refined product, and as a result, we've seen these steep declines in gasoline inventories. Distillate inventories are the lowest since 2005. And you sort of -- you look at some of the data and it raises the specter of the return to the pre-2014 situation. There was some sort of export ban in place. And I was wondering if you had any thoughts on how that could impact Shell.

另外一個問題我也理解，可能有點棘手。如果你不想回答，我完全理解。但我想提出這個議題。過去幾週美國的石油出口非常、非常高，不僅是原油，也包括成品油；因此我們看到汽油庫存大幅下降。餾分油庫存是自2005年以來最低。你看一些數據，會讓人聯想到回到2014年前的情況。當時存在某種出口禁令。我想請問你對這件事可能如何影響Shell，有沒有任何看法？

And I'm asking it because quite often with these things you can have sort of counterintuitive things where, like something goes up, something else goes down, and it all when you really start thinking through it could be really sort of quite complex. If that were to happen, is there a particular impact on Shell that we should keep in mind?

我之所以問，是因為這類事情常常會出現某種反直覺的結果，例如某個東西上升、另一個東西下降；當你真正開始推演時，可能會變得相當複雜。如果真的發生那樣的情況，對Shell是否有特定影響是我們需要留意的？

Yeah. Thanks for the questions, Martijn. I'll take the second one. And if you want to talk about LNG Canada, then Sinead. Look, I won't speculate as to what, if any, interventions might take place, but I will confirm what you are seeing, which is, of course, when you have 12% to 15% of the world's crude disrupted, there is going to have to be different offsets.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Martijn。我先回答第二個。至於LNG Canada，如果你想談的話就交給Sinead。你看，我不會去臆測是否會有任何干預措施、以及會是什麼，但我可以確認你所看到的情況：當全球有12%到15%的原油供應受到干擾時，必然需要以不同方式來抵消（offset）。

And what you are indeed seeing, in particular, is many of the refineries in the US are leaning towards more jet, more diesel, to be able to meet the growing demand, in particular from Europe, that had depended a bit more on Middle Eastern supplies. And so you see some of those exports coming through. You do see stock draws. And the question is how long this lasts and how much of a problem do we build? Back to my earlier analogy, we've drilled a hole, 1 billion barrels' worth of a hole, and we're going deeper and deeper. So to come back, it's just going to take us a lot longer.

而你確實看到的，特別是美國許多煉油廠正傾向生產更多航空燃油、更多柴油，以滿足不斷成長的需求，尤其是來自歐洲的需求；歐洲過去較依賴中東供應。因此你會看到部分出口出現。你也會看到庫存下滑。問題在於這會持續多久，以及我們會累積多大的問題？回到我先前的比喻，我們鑽了一個洞——相當於10億桶的洞——而且越鑽越深。所以要回補，只會花更長的時間。

From a Shell-specific perspective, the majority of our exposures tend to be around our trading and optimization and the positions that we are taking to be able to satisfy our customers. All the narrative that we have, both in private and in public, seems to indicate a US government recognizing that exports are not the way to go. And so that is very much our base case, that there will not be any export bans.

就Shell自身而言，我們的大部分曝險往往在於交易與最佳化，以及我們為了滿足客戶而採取的部位。我們無論在私下或公開的各種說法，似乎都顯示美國政府認知到「限制出口」不是方向。因此這非常符合我們的基本情境（base case）：不會有任何出口禁令。

Yes. And thanks, Martijn. You asked about LNG Canada and primarily about the rumors in the market about a sell down. Look, LNG Canada is a great asset as far as we're concerned. But more importantly, it's about the integrated value chain that we see. So what we're always looking for is that integration. We're looking for the ability to be in the upstream, to be able to benefit from the liquefaction of that aspect, so the [steel in the mill] and then being able to actually realize the prices outside of the country, so be able to ship it and of course trade around it as well.

是的。也謝謝你，Martijn。你問到LNG Canada，主要是市場上關於出售部分持股的傳聞。你看，就我們而言，LNG Canada是一項很棒的資產。但更重要的是我們所看到的一體化價值鏈。所以我們一直在尋求的是那種整合。我們希望能在上游布局，從液化這一環節中受益，也就是所謂的[steel in the mill]，然後能夠在國外實現價格，也就是能把它運出去，當然也能圍繞它進行交易。

So that integrated value chain is key. What you're hearing is a consideration from Shell in terms of the midstream element of that. Do we need to have our funds locked up fully in the midstream part, in the steel part, or can we still benefit from it, and can we reallocate that capital elsewhere? It's a consideration, and that's what you're seeing being considered or being talked about in the press at the moment. But to be clear, we still want to have exposure to the full integrated value chain.

因此，一體化價值鏈是關鍵。你所聽到的是Shell正在考量其中的中游環節。我們是否需要把資金完全鎖在中游那一段、也就是鋼鐵那一段？或者我們仍能從中受益，並把資本重新配置到其他地方？這是一項考量，而這就是你目前在媒體上看到被評估或被討論的內容。但要說清楚的是，我們仍希望對完整的一體化價值鏈保持曝險。

Thanks, Sinead. Martijn, thanks for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next caller, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Martijn，也謝謝你的提問。Luke，請接下一位來電。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

HSBC的Kim Fustier。

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a follow-up on Pearl GTL, if I may. Do you have insurance coverage for the up to $500 million of repair costs on Pearl? And in terms of the one-year repair timeline, are you confident there's going to be enough contractor capacity to sort of simultaneously carry out the repairs on Pearl while two LNG trains are also being rebuilt and the Qatari LNG expansions are also ongoing?

嗨。下午好。謝謝讓我提問。如果可以的話，我想追問Pearl GTL。Pearl最高達5億美元的維修成本，你們有保險理賠保障嗎？另外，關於為期一年的維修時程，你們是否有信心承包商產能足夠，能在同時進行Pearl維修的同時，還要重建兩列LNG生產線（trains），而且卡達的LNG擴建也在進行中？

I also wanted to ask you about the, I believe the force majeure you declared on some LNG customers back in March because of the disruption in Qatar. I mean, given the vast scale of your LNG portfolio, was there any possibility to absorb the shortfall commercially, or were the effective volumes just too large? And I think you've disclosed the 2.4 million tons per annum of equity LNG production in Qatar, and then on top of that you've got the LNG supply contract. Could you quantify those, please? Thank you.

我也想問你們在3月因卡達中斷而對部分LNG客戶宣布的不可抗力（force majeure）。我是說，考量你們LNG投資組合規模如此龐大，是否有可能在商業上吸收這個缺口，還是實際短缺量真的太大？我想你們已披露在卡達的權益LNG產量為每年240萬噸，除此之外你們還有LNG供應合約。能否請你量化那些合約量？謝謝。

Yeah. Thank you. I'll touch on a couple, and then maybe Sinead, if you want to take the Pearl GTL insurance one and the FM as well. Just on the one-year repair time, I was on site, Kim, just two weeks ago, had the opportunity to see where the team was. Super job by the team. All the debris has been taken out already. They had isolated the unit that was damaged. We have already put in long lead item requests, and we have a plan for execution. The scope is a limited, well-understood, well-contained scope, and so I have no doubts that we will be able to have the capacity to be able to execute that scope.

是的。謝謝。我先談幾點，然後也許 Sinead，你可以一併回答 Pearl GTL 的保險問題以及 FM。關於一年修復時間，我兩週前才在現場，Kim，也有機會看到團隊目前的進度。團隊做得非常出色。所有碎屑都已經清除完畢。他們已將受損的裝置隔離。我們也已經提出長交期項目的採購需求，並且有執行計畫。這次的工作範圍有限、理解充分、界定清楚且可控，因此我毫不懷疑我們有能力按計畫執行並完成該範圍。

Indeed. And Kim, on that one, you talked about whether we have insurance or not. Just our overall ethos or philosophy around this, Shell typically self-insures, but it very much depends on the requirements in the country and our JV partners' preferences. So I won't really comment on an asset-by-asset basis. That's up to the local rules and regulations, but fundamentally it sits within what we are comfortable with asset by asset.

確實。Kim，關於那一點，你提到我們是否有保險。就我們整體的理念或哲學而言，Shell 通常採取自保，但這很大程度取決於所在國家的要求以及我們合資夥伴的偏好。因此我不會針對單一資產逐一評論。那取決於當地的規則與法規，但從根本上來說，這會落在我們對各項資產可接受的風險承受範圍之內。

You already covered the contractor liability and availability -- or availability rather than liability. Force majeure, indeed, with respect to how do we handle force majeure, I would just simply say we follow what is in the contracts, and we are very thoughtful about what we need to do in discussion with the party who is actually operating and running the asset as well. So I won't get into the details on those, of course, because it's very much contractual. I'll leave it for those who operate them to comment on it. Thank you.

你已經談到承包商責任與可用性——或者更準確地說是可用性而非責任。至於不可抗力（force majeure），確實，關於我們如何處理不可抗力，我只想簡單說：我們會依照合約條款辦理，並且會與實際營運與管理該資產的一方進行審慎討論，決定需要採取的作法。所以我當然不會深入細節，因為這完全屬於合約範疇。我把這部分留給實際營運方來評論。謝謝。

Thank you, Sinead. Kim, thanks for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Kim，謝謝你的提問。Luke，請進下一個問題。

Maurizio Caruli, Quilter Cheviot.

Maurizio Caruli，Quilter Cheviot。

Thank you very much and congratulations on the sound and solid Q1 results. One question, if I may. Being Shell the number one LNG operator has a privileged view of the LNG market as a whole. And so can you give us your opinion if the current Middle East crisis is going to cause any long-term changes in the characteristics of the LNG market and the way in which it operates? Thank you.

非常感謝，也恭喜你們第一季交出穩健扎實的業績。如果可以的話，我有一個問題。Shell 作為全球第一的 LNG 營運商，對整體 LNG 市場有更具優勢的視角。那麼你們能否分享看法：目前的中東危機是否會對 LNG 市場的特性以及其運作方式帶來任何長期變化？謝謝。

Maurizio, thank you for the question and for your recognition of the performance. I think couple things I'd say. Undoubtedly in the short term, the tightness of the market is real because you have 20% of the volumes are out. It's important to recognize it's different than oil. In oil, for example, the outages in the Middle East mean 12% to 15% of the market is impacted. While 20% of the LNG market is impacted, that's just 3% of the overall gas market. And so it is much more sort of contained, call it across the entire commodity in that context.

Maurizio，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝你對我們表現的肯定。我想我會說幾點。毫無疑問，短期內市場的緊俏是真實存在的，因為有 20% 的供應量退出了市場。重要的是要認知到，這與石油不同。以石油為例，中東的停供意味著市場有 12% 到 15% 受到影響。而 LNG 市場雖有 20% 受到影響，但那只占整體天然氣市場的 3%。因此在這個脈絡下，若放到整個商品市場來看，影響其實更為受控、範圍更有限。

If you look longer term, we absolutely continue to have conviction in the role of LNG for a few reasons. If anything over the last three to four years, the one thing we see that everyone is starting to really get now is that national security is anchored on energy security, that national strategies, whether they are digital AI strategies, industrial strategies, environmental strategies, are all built on energy strategies.

如果看更長期，我們對 LNG 的角色仍然非常有信心，原因有幾個。若說過去三到四年有一件事大家現在真的開始理解，那就是：國家安全是以能源安全為基礎；各國的國家策略，不論是數位與 AI 策略、產業策略、環境策略，都是建立在能源策略之上。

Therefore, the importance of having diverse supplies of energy to be able to underpin security and broader strategies is key, and LNG plays an incredibly important role in that. It is versatile. It is reliable. And it gives these countries the ability to have secure energy available to them. So we do see a trajectory of, say, 600 million to 800 million tons by 2050, resilient demand that is continuing to be there for LNG. It will go through cycles in the short, medium term, but longer term we have very strong convictions.

因此，擁有多元能源供應以支撐安全與更廣泛的策略至關重要，而 LNG 在其中扮演極其重要的角色。它具備彈性。它可靠。並且讓這些國家能夠取得安全的能源供應。所以我們確實看到，到 2050 年 LNG 需求將沿著約 6 億到 8 億噸的軌跡成長，且需求具韌性、會持續存在。短中期會經歷循環，但長期而言我們的信念非常強。

Not all LNG is going to be the same. This is why we really like Canadian LNG, because it will be premiumized, given the proximity to the Asian markets and having a diverse portfolio like we do. We have supplies from over 10 countries and supply to over 30 countries. That is where the real premiumization of that LNG can play up, and you see it day, quarter in, quarter out through our LNG results.

並非所有 LNG 都會一樣。這也是為什麼我們非常看好加拿大 LNG，因為它會具備更高溢價：一方面靠近亞洲市場，另一方面我們也擁有像現在這樣多元的投資組合。我們的供應來源超過 10 個國家，並向超過 30 個國家供應。這正是 LNG 溢價化真正能發揮的地方，而你也能從我們的 LNG 業績中看到——一季接一季、日復一日地體現出來。

Thank you for that question. Let's go to the next caller, please, Luke.

謝謝你的問題。Luke，請接下一位來電者。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to something that was discussed about feeling good about closing that 300,000 to 400,000 barrel per day gap in the early 2030s. It sounds like some of that is still dependent on organic opportunities developing. So how much of that have you closed thus far, and how much of that do you think will close moving forward as a result of positive exploration success or other organic opportunities?

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。我想回到先前討論的一點：你們對在 2030 年代初期縮小每日 30 萬到 40 萬桶的差距感到有信心。聽起來其中一部分仍取決於有機機會的發展。那麼到目前為止你們已經縮小了多少？以及你們認為未來還會因為勘探成功或其他有機機會而縮小多少？

My second question is on the power segment, which I know is less of a focus now. But that segment generated outsized earnings in 2022 as a result of the high energy prices. There's been some restructuring since then in the business. So do you still see the same earnings capacity in that business in this type of environment? And conversely, does that -- do the higher prices enable potentially additional restructuring opportunities? Thanks.

我的第二個問題是關於電力業務部門，我知道現在它不是那麼被聚焦。但該部門在 2022 年因能源價格高漲而創造了超額獲利。此後該業務也進行了一些重整。所以在目前這種環境下，你們仍然認為該業務具備同樣的獲利能力嗎？反過來說，較高的價格是否可能帶來額外的重整機會？謝謝。

Jason, thank you for those two questions. I'll take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. Look, I don't like to use the word gap because it almost starts to drive a volume over value mentality. I mean, just look at what we have done since we put out there exactly what our production numbers were through to 2035. At the time, we had talked about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2030 around 150,000 to get there.

Jason，謝謝你這兩個問題。我先回答第一個，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個。你看，我不太喜歡用「差距」這個詞，因為它幾乎會把思維導向「重量不重質」的心態。我的意思是，看看自從我們公布到 2035 年的產量數字以來，我們做了什麼。當時我們談到 2030 年約 140 萬桶/日，距離達成大約還差 15 萬桶。

We have now been able to, in a short period of time, show a trajectory for growth in our oil and gas production from 2025 to 2030 to the tune of 4%, up from 1%, making us one of the leaders in the industry in terms of that growth trajectory subject to the closing of the Arc acquisition. And so we will always be looking at opportunities to create value, and of course, those opportunities will have an effect into the 2030s as well through into 2035.

而現在在很短的時間內，我們已能展示 2025 到 2030 年油氣產量約 4% 的成長軌跡，高於原先的 1%；在完成 Arc 收購的前提下，這使我們在該成長軌跡上成為業界領先者之一。因此我們會持續尋找能創造價值的機會，當然，這些機會也會對 2030 年代、一直到 2035 年產生影響。

We do think that some of the exploration opportunities will contribute, both some of the, call it more frontier opportunities, but also remember, we have a lot of opportunities to explore near our existing assets in many of the theaters in which we play. That will create value. But also, we also have a lot of negotiated opportunities. Venezuela, we're positioning for plays in a, in a place like Kuwait, in Libya, and multiple other locations.

我們確實認為，一些勘探機會將會帶來貢獻，包括一些可稱為更前沿的機會；但也請記得，我們在許多我們所參與的區域（theaters）中，於既有資產附近仍有大量可勘探的機會。那將創造價值。此外，我們也有許多已協商的機會。委內瑞拉，我們正為在科威特這樣的地方、在利比亞，以及其他多個地點的布局做準備。

Nigeria, we have some really exciting growth options. It's not the time now to sort of update on where all of those are. Suffice it to say that what we said was we were going to be developing 1 million barrels per day between '25 and 2030. We've already produced -- sorry, delivered a quarter of that. We have the other three quarters, add on top of that close to 400,000 barrels per day that will be coming from Arc.

在奈及利亞，我們有一些非常令人振奮的成長選項。現在不是逐一更新所有進展的時候。簡而言之，我們先前說過，將在 2025 年到 2030 年間開發每日 100 萬桶的產量。我們已經產出——抱歉，是已交付其中的四分之一。其餘的四分之三，再加上接近每日 40 萬桶將來自 Arc 的產量。

And it just shows you the strength of the portfolio that's coming through and the underlying cash flow that gives us the confidence both to be able to grow the dividend today, but also, as I said, to then have the countercyclical weight to lean into our buybacks even more when the opportunity comes up.

這正顯示出我們投資組合的強勁動能，以及其底層現金流，讓我們有信心不僅能在今天提高股利，同時也如我所說，當機會出現時，能以逆週期的力量更積極地推進我們的庫藏股回購。

Sinead.

Sinead。

Jason, I'll keep it short. First of all, indeed, our renewables, our RES sector had a very good quarter. That was primarily down to our trading colleagues indeed being able to maximize value through, frankly, actually what happened in January, which was a cold winter in the US. We've almost forgotten about that since then.

Jason，我簡短說明。首先，確實，我們的再生能源（renewables）、我們的 RES 部門本季表現非常好。這主要歸功於我們的交易同仁確實能夠透過——坦白說——一月在美國發生的寒冷冬季，將價值最大化。自那之後我們幾乎都快忘了這件事。

But looking forward, what we expect to see, we do expect to see the mix is shifting towards, as we've talked about before, strategically towards flex assets, which will allow us to drive more and more that ability to indeed be able to maximize returns going forward. And outside of that, of course, you see some small scale dilutions that are still occurring in some of our original renewables, and asset base as well.

但展望未來，我們預期會看到組合正在轉向——如我們先前談過的——策略性地轉向具彈性的資產（flex assets），這將使我們能夠進一步強化未來持續將報酬最大化的能力。除此之外，當然，你也會看到在我們部分早期的再生能源與資產基礎中，仍在發生一些小規模的稀釋。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you for that question as well. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。也謝謝你的提問。Luke，請進行下一個問題。

Mark Wilson, Jefferies.

Mark Wilson，Jefferies。

Thank you. You won't be surprised to know that most of my questions have been answered. So an anecdotal question. One of your peers spoke to a vessel being able to pass the Strait. I just wonder if you have seen anything like that and or how many vessels you have on the inside of it. Thank you.

謝謝。你不會意外，我的大多數問題都已經被回答了。所以我問一個軼事性的問題。你們的一位同業提到有船隻能夠通過該海峽。我想請問你們是否也看到類似情況，或者你們有多少艘船在其內側。謝謝。

Yeah. We still have a few, Mark, that are on the inside. I won't give specific numbers, you'll appreciate, because of the importance of keeping that confidential. We are getting a lot of signals from different governments, and what we are trying to do is to exercise prudence. I spoke to a crew just last week, a crew that has been caught there for two months. Most important thing is they feel well looked after. They feel safe.

是的。Mark，我們仍有幾艘在內側。我不會提供具體數字，你會理解，基於保密的重要性。我們從不同政府收到許多訊號，而我們正在做的是保持審慎。我上週才和一組船員通話，他們已被困在那裡兩個月。最重要的是，他們覺得自己被妥善照顧。他們覺得安全。

I asked them how they're keeping busy. They are playing cards at night. They are connecting. I just pray that we are able to continue to see that safe space they are in. And we will wait until we feel that it is absolutely safe to traverse them out of the Strait. We will not do anything until we have that full conviction. There are lives at stake, and we will want to make sure that we handle that as we have handled all of our priorities at the moment. It starts with the safety of our people through this very difficult period. Thank you for the question, Mark.

我問他們如何打發時間。他們晚上打牌。他們彼此聯繫。我只祈禱我們能夠持續看到他們目前所處的安全空間。我們會等到我們覺得穿越海峽讓他們出來是絕對安全時才會行動。在我們完全确信之前，我們不會做任何事。這攸關人命，我們要確保以我們目前處理所有優先事項的方式來妥善處理。一切都從在這段非常艱難的期間確保我們人員的安全開始。謝謝你的提問，Mark。

And as that was the last question, let me thank you for your questions and for joining the call. In conclusion, we have delivered a strong set of financial results in this quarter, supported by another quarter of strong operational performance across the businesses. We're living through a period of heightened uncertainty and volatility.

既然這是最後一個問題，讓我感謝各位的提問以及加入本次電話會議。總結而言，在本季，我們交出一組強勁的財務成果，並且在各項業務的營運表現同樣強勁的另一個季度支持下達成。我們正處於一段不確定性與波動性升高的時期。

Shell has experience operating within and navigating these conditions as we continue to deliver more value with less emissions. Wishing everyone a pleasant end of the week. Thank you very much in behalf of both Sinead and myself.

Shell 具備在這些情勢下營運並穿越這些條件的經驗，同時我們持續以更少的排放創造更多價值。祝大家週末前的這段時間愉快。我謹代表 Sinead 與我本人，衷心感謝各位。