殼牌 (SHEL) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how Shell delivered a very strong set of results through the strength of our portfolio and the quality of our execution. Now Sinead and I will be answering your questions. So please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity. And with that, could we take the first question, please, Jake.

感謝各位今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次簡報後，各位已看到殼牌憑藉我們投資組合的實力以及執行品質，交出了一組非常強勁的業績。現在，Sinead 和我將回答各位的問題。所以，請每位提問者盡量只問一到兩個問題，讓每個人都有機會。那麼，請先進行第一個問題，Jake。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

The first one is just on the distribution front. And going back to your comments in Q1, you cut the buyback -- yes, trimmed the buyback, let's say, the argument you made was you wanted to be agile and tactical. And I guess, just a view on the value of the buyback in terms of your share price. At the same time, you have a payout ratio and that calculus on the return on the buyback is not really embedded in a 40% to 50% payout ratio.

第一個問題是關於股東回饋（distribution）。回到你們在第一季的評論，你們下調了回購——是的，姑且說是小幅削減回購；你們提出的理由是希望保持靈活與戰術性。我想請教的是，從股價角度來看，回購的價值如何？同時，你們有一個派息率（payout ratio），而回購報酬的這套計算，並沒有真正被納入 40% 到 50% 的派息率之中。

So as we look forward, obviously, the impact of the war is maybe more pronounced than you thought at the time. But it looks like your run rate on distributions will be well below the 40% if you continue at this rate. So just trying to understand how you're thinking about squaring those two things off, the payout ratio, which you've committed to and then the return on investment of the buyback.

展望未來，顯然戰爭的影響可能比你們當時預期更為明顯。但看起來，如果你們照這個速度持續下去，你們的回饋分配的運行水準（run rate）將會遠低於 40%。所以我想了解，你們如何看待並平衡這兩件事：你們承諾的派息率，以及回購的投資報酬。

And then the second question is just on the low carbon front. I'm noticing the capital employed is obviously steadily reducing. You've announced a few more sales. You've targeted at improving returns in that business. Could you say what proportion of that $15 billion capital employed you have on the books is generating acceptable returns at this point? And I'm thinking beyond the trading that goes into that segment.

第二個問題是關於低碳業務。我注意到投入資本（capital employed）顯然在穩步下降。你們也宣布了更多資產出售。你們的目標是提升該業務的回報。能否說明一下，目前帳上這 150 億美元投入資本中，有多少比例在此刻正產生可接受的回報？我指的是不僅限於該分部中的交易（trading）部分。

Okay. Sinead, do you want to start with the first one? Maybe I'll go to the second one after that.

好的。Sinead，你要先回答第一個問題嗎？之後我再回答第二個。

Happy to. And thanks, Biraj, for the questions. Indeed, so first and foremost, I think it's fair to say that we have both the ability and a commitment to deliver 40% to 50% through the cycle. And we've been very clear on that throughout. This is definitely not about affordability in any sense.

樂意。也謝謝你，Biraj，提出這些問題。確實，首先我認為可以公平地說，我們既有能力也有承諾，在景氣循環中交付 40% 到 50%。我們一直都非常清楚地表達這一點。這絕對不是任何意義上的「負擔不起」。

You talked about last quarter specifically and what did we do last quarter? So I wouldn't say we trimmed, I'd say we rebalanced. So as we discussed at the time, we rebalanced between both the buyback and the dividends. So we increased the dividends at the time when we moved the buyback to $3 billion. So that allowed us to stay within that payout ratio.

你提到的是上一季的具體情況，以及我們上一季做了什麼。我不會說我們是削減，我會說我們是重新平衡。如同我們當時討論的，我們在回購與股利之間做了重新平衡。當我們把回購調整到 30 億美元時，我們同時提高了股利。這讓我們能夠維持在那個派息率區間內。

We're very pragmatic on this and not dogmatic at all. We are dogmatic about the 40% to 50% through the cycle. But in terms of how we split it, we make that decision quarter-by-quarter, and we look through the quarter. We're not fixated every quarter on that. We're looking at where do we see the macro going to, what do we see in terms of how we can apply, and the funds, the extra free cash flow we have, whether that's to buybacks, whether that's to CapEx or whether that's to the balance sheet each quarter, and we take that decision.

我們在這方面非常務實，完全不教條。我們對於「在景氣循環中維持 40% 到 50%」是堅持的。但至於如何拆分，我們是逐季決定，並且會穿透單一季度來看。我們並不會每一季都死盯著那個數字。我們會看宏觀走向、看我們能如何運用，以及我們每季多出來的自由現金流要用在回購、資本支出（CapEx）或資產負債表上，然後做出決策。

You've seen some of the quarters, we've been higher than that, above the 50% as well. So I would say we come back to the fact that it is [sacrificing] a value decision, but the 40% to 50% is the commitment that we have.

你也看到有些季度我們高於那個水準，甚至超過 50%。所以我會說，我們回到一點：這是（取捨）價值的決策，但 40% 到 50% 是我們的承諾。

Thanks, Sinead. Biraj, to the second question, been very pleased with the momentum we have to be able to continue to work on the $45 billion of underperforming capital employed. You touched on a portion of that, which sits in low carbon. I wouldn't divorce, by the way, the trading from the assets. A lot of our low-carbon business models are going to be trading-backed models. So what you see us doing is divesting assets that don't fit into a trading-backed capability and making sure that we are gearing all of our activities towards actually that trading-backed business model.

謝謝，Sinead。Biraj，關於第二個問題，我們很高興看到我們能持續推進、處理 450 億美元表現不佳的投入資本（underperforming capital employed）的動能。你提到其中一部分是在低碳。順帶一提，我不會把交易（trading）和資產切割開來看。我們許多低碳商業模式都會是以交易作為支撐的模式。所以你看到我們正在做的是：剝離那些不符合「交易支撐能力」的資產，並確保我們所有活動都朝向這個以交易支撐的商業模式來配置。

Remember, some of that capital today is sitting unproductively because we are still building up, take CCS, for example, take Holland Hydrogen I in Rotterdam. So this is capital that will start to show a return likely in 2027 onwards. As I've said in the past, we will expect a return on that part of the business to be north of 10% before the end of the decade. And that's what we are working on over the coming years.

請記得，今天有些資本之所以尚未有效產出，是因為我們仍在建置中——例如 CCS（碳捕集與封存），例如位於鹿特丹的 Holland Hydrogen I。因此，這些資本可能要到 2027 年之後才會開始顯示回報。如我過去所說，我們預期在本十年結束前，該業務這部分的回報將超過 10%。這就是我們未來幾年努力的方向。

Again, good progress. There's multiple different levers we're pulling, but we have some way to go. Thanks for the question, Biraj. Jake, can we go to the next question, please.

再次強調，進展良好。我們正在拉動多個不同的槓桿，但仍有一段路要走。謝謝你的提問，Biraj。Jake，請進行下一個問題。

Josh Stone, UBS.

Josh Stone，UBS。

I wanted to ask about LNG. Very strong results from Integrated Gas this quarter, clearly quite a few moving parts, but also quite a few moving parts from the outlook for LNG. So curious as to what -- how you're thinking if you're thinking differently about the outlook for LNG prices. There was a strong consensus around a glut appearing, but perhaps that's not fair anymore. So curious any comments on LNG.

我想問關於 LNG。本季整合式天然氣（Integrated Gas）表現非常強勁，顯然有不少變動因素，但 LNG 的前景也同樣有很多變數。所以我想了解，你們是否、以及如何以不同方式看待 LNG 價格的展望。先前市場普遍共識是會出現供給過剩（glut），但也許現在這樣說已不再公平。因此想請教你們對 LNG 的任何看法。

And then related to that, or specifically to your business, are you seeing any change in customer behavior for LNG and Integrated Gas in terms of perhaps customers wanting to sign up to portfolio gas rather than contracting single assets? So if there's any early change in behavior, would be interesting.

另外，與此相關、或更具體針對你們的業務：你們是否看到 LNG 與整合式天然氣的客戶行為有任何改變？例如客戶可能更想簽「投資組合天然氣（portfolio gas）」而不是單一資產的合約？如果有任何早期的行為變化，會很有意思。

Thanks, Josh. I'll touch a bit on the behaviors, and I don't know if you want to give a perspective, Sinead, on the outlook.

謝謝，Josh。我會先談一點行為面的部分；至於展望，Sinead，不知道你是否想補充一些觀點。

Early days, Josh, I think everyone is trying to sort of rewire themselves to the new realities. Qatar will continue to be, of course, a critical part of the overall LNG mix, with 20% of the volumes coming from there. We have not necessarily seen a lot of short-term action as a response of this other than in the spot markets.

Josh，現在還算早期，我想每個人都在嘗試重新調整自己以適應新的現實。卡達當然仍將是整體 LNG 組合中的關鍵部分，其中 20% 的量來自那裡。除了現貨市場之外，我們不一定看到很多短期行動作為回應。

In the term markets, you continue to see the balance of new US supplies coming into the market, potentially new announcements on FIDs elsewhere. People, of course, anticipating what might happen with LNG Canada Phase 2. All of that means that the market will continue to be well supplied.

在中長期市場方面，你仍會看到新的美國供應進入市場的平衡狀態，也可能看到其他地區新的 FID（最終投資決策）公告。當然，大家也在預期 LNG Canada 第二期可能會發生什麼。這一切都意味著市場將持續維持供應充足。

If I look now long term before coming -- before leaving Sinead to sort of cover the short to medium term, we continue to have very strong conviction, as you saw in our LNG outlook in the future of LNG. We're talking about 65% growth in that market between now and 2050, underpinned by this continued belief that gas will be a stabilizing force in the energy system because of its flexibility, its reliability, the security that it has and the ability to be able to have the adjacencies with the likes of renewables, but also as a substitute to coal or for that matter, heavy fuel oil when it comes to the marine sector.

如果我現在從長期角度來看，在我回到——在我把短中期的部分交給Sinead接手之前，我們仍然對LNG的未來抱持非常強烈的信心，正如你在我們對LNG前景的展望中所看到的。我們談的是在現在到2050年間，該市場將成長65%，其背後支撐是我們持續相信天然氣將因其靈活性、可靠性、所具備的安全性，以及能與再生能源等形成相鄰互補的能力，而成為能源系統中的穩定力量；同時，在海運領域，天然氣也可作為煤炭或甚至重燃料油的替代品。

And so the underpinnings are strong. Short-term disruptions, of course, we look to manage through our trading organization. But longer term, we continue to have very deep conviction in that. But the outlook, Sinead?

因此，基本面支撐很強。短期的擾動，當然，我們會透過我們的交易組織來管理。但從更長期來看，我們仍然對此抱持非常深的信念。不過，展望方面，Sinead？

Yes. I think you're talking about the market generically. And of course, when you take out some 25 million tonnes or more out of the market with what's occurred with the Strait, what we've seen of what was considered to be a bit more length was expected within certainly this year, you've taken that out. So that balance has changed.

是的。我想你談的是整體市場。當然，當你因為海峽所發生的事件而從市場中移除約2,500萬噸或更多的供給時，我們看到原本被認為會出現一些較寬鬆（length）的情況、至少在今年內原本預期會發生的部分，就被拿掉了。因此，供需平衡已經改變。

What are we seeing at the moment? We're seeing, of course, where pricing is going to is it's allowing actually some of the volumes to be redirected from where they've been going to, which is Asia, back into Europe, which is much needed as we very much know, because coming into this winter where you've got European volumes are -- sorry, European storage volumes are very limited and actually much below where we would have expected closer to the 50%. We're actually seeing that requirement very strongly here. That redirection is happening, but it does make for a tightness coming in the next quarter or so.

我們目前看到什麼？當然，我們看到價格走勢其實讓部分貨量得以從原本流向的亞洲，重新導回歐洲；這非常需要，因為我們都很清楚，進入這個冬季時，歐洲的庫存量——抱歉，歐洲的儲氣庫存非常有限，而且實際上遠低於我們原本預期、接近50%的水準。我們確實看到這裡的需求非常強勁。這種改道正在發生，但也使得接下來一季左右的市場會更為吃緊。

Thank you, Sinead. Josh, thank you for the questions. Jake, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Josh，謝謝你的提問。Jake，請進行下一個問題。

Fergus Neve, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Fergus Neve，Rothschild & Co Redburn。

Two questions, please. So it was positive to see the recent success of the exploration well in Namibia. I wondered if you could comment briefly on the early differences and similarities between this discovery and the previously written off Graff and Jonker wells that makes this discovery more promising, as you mentioned in your opening remarks.

兩個問題，謝謝。很高興看到近期在納米比亞的探勘井取得成功。我想請你簡要評論一下，這次發現與先前被認為已無望的Graff與Jonker井之間，在早期有哪些差異與相似之處，使得這次發現如你在開場致詞所提到的更具前景？

And then secondly, just on the Chemicals result, which was strong this quarter, very positive to see that. Could you just comment on the relative split of this improvement between the self-help work you've been doing since the Singapore divestment and also the margin environment that we saw in the quarter?

第二個問題是關於化學品業務的結果，本季表現強勁，看到這點非常正面。你能否評論一下，這項改善在你們自新加坡資產剝離以來所做的自助（self-help）工作，以及本季所見的利差環境之間，各自的相對貢獻占比？

Thanks for that, Fergus. I'll take the first question and ask Sinead to address the second one. On the exploration well, we were indeed pleased with the result of that well. Again, early days. But what I would say is the biggest difference is in both the reservoir and the fluid characteristics. It was one of the best permeabilities, porosities that we had seen in the block, and it's opened up a new horizon for us to explore. We're now looking to expedite two appraisal wells to end of this year to be able to allow us to derisk some more volumes and see whether we have enough for an attractive profitable development. So more to come, I suspect, in 2027. Sinead?

謝謝你，Fergus。我先回答第一個問題，並請Sinead回答第二個。關於探勘井，我們確實對該井的結果感到滿意。當然，仍屬早期階段。但我想說，最大的差異在於儲層與流體特性兩方面。它是我們在該區塊所見過最佳的滲透率與孔隙度之一，並為我們開啟了一個新的勘探層位。我們現在希望加速在今年底前鑽兩口評估井，以便讓我們能進一步降低風險、確認更多可採量，並看看是否有足夠規模支撐一個具吸引力且可獲利的開發案。因此我想，2027年應該還會有更多消息。Sinead？

Thanks, Fergus, for the question. Indeed, great to see Chemicals. The results they showed, the team is doing an amazing job here. And of course, there's three things that we're always looking at. We're looking at, as you say, the margins, then we're looking at the ability to actually be competitive and control our costs, and the ability to run the assets really well.

謝謝你，Fergus的提問。化學品業務的表現確實令人振奮。他們展現的成果，團隊在這裡做得非常出色。當然，我們一向關注三件事。如你所說，我們看利差；接著我們看競爭力與成本控制能力；以及資產的營運表現是否能做到最好。

Margins, you know as well as I do, how strong those have been this quarter. And of course, those helped significantly. But what the weighting is much more towards the fact of the cost takeout that we've managed and the operating capability of the assets. So what the team did very, very well was to be able to actually ensure that those assets were up and running. So in Pennsylvania at Monaca, they managed to ensure that it actually hit record performance as well.

利差方面，你我都知道本季有多強。當然，這對結果有很大的幫助。但更大的權重其實來自我們成功推動的成本削減，以及資產的營運能力。因此，團隊做得非常、非常好的一點，是確保這些資產能夠維持運轉並穩定開車。例如在賓州Monaca，他們也確保達到創紀錄的表現。

That allows us just to be able to push the product through and be able to actually take advantage of what is very strong margins as well, which gives us confidence as we go through, of course, and what will happen on quarter-on-quarter. Margins will change, but it has to be supplemented by that cost and that operational performance. So well done to the team. Thanks, Fergus.

這讓我們能夠把產品順利推進市場，並實際把握同樣非常強勁的利差，這也讓我們對後續進展更有信心，當然也包括季度對季度的變化。利差會改變，但必須由成本與營運表現來補強。所以，團隊做得很好。謝謝你，Fergus。

Thank you, Sinead. Thanks, Fergus. Jake, next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你，Fergus。Jake，請下一個問題。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

Michele Della Vigna，高盛。

Congratulations on the very strong results. As you know, there's been a lot of debate around reserve life in the sector. And it feels like FIDs are the biggest way to kind of sort that out and build reserve life for the future. It looks like you're making tremendous progress in a lot of areas. I was wondering specifically on Bonga Southwest and Zabazaba in Nigeria and on LNG Canada too in Canada, whether you could give us a bit of an update on when you expect those FIDs to take place.

恭喜你們取得非常強勁的業績。如你所知，業界對於儲量壽命一直有很多討論。而看起來，FID（最終投資決策）是解決這個問題、並為未來建立儲量壽命的最主要方式。看起來你們在許多領域都取得了巨大的進展。我想特別就奈及利亞的Bonga Southwest與Zabazaba，以及加拿大的LNG Canada，請你更新一下你們預期這些FID會在何時做出。

Michele, thank you for the question. Allow me maybe for a moment to be able to sort of frame because I think there's multiple angles to the question that you asked.

Michele，謝謝你的提問。請容我先用一點時間做個鋪陳，因為我認為你問的問題有多個面向。

For the last few years, we've talked about performance discipline simplification with this value over volume focus. And I'm really proud of how far the organization has come over this period. And you can see it in the results.

過去幾年，我們一直在談績效紀律、簡化，以及以價值優先於產量的聚焦。我對組織在這段期間取得的進展感到非常自豪。你也可以從業績中看得出來。

What we have been able to do is, in essence, to be able to strengthen and cement the foundations of our base free cash flow, which has been, if you look over the last few years, roughly $25 billion to $30 billion per year on a $70 real-term basis, right? And we've also been able to extend that. That's been an area we've been very focused on. So extending that stable free cash flow.

我們本質上做到的是強化並鞏固我們基礎自由現金流的根基；如果你回看過去幾年，在以70美元實質價格為基礎的情境下，大約每年是250億到300億美元，對吧？而且我們也能夠延長這個基礎。這一直是我們非常聚焦的領域。也就是延長這個穩定的自由現金流。

We have now fully derisked the 2030 period through multiple moves, and we've talked about them in the past. And we are well on our way towards the 2035 period and beyond. So that base, that strong foundation, is very much in place.

我們現在已透過多項舉措，完全降低了2030年前後期間的風險，我們過去也談過這些。而且我們也正穩步邁向2035年及更遠的期間。因此，那個基礎、那個強而有力的根基，已經非常到位。

Now to your point around additional growth, we are now starting to add layers of absolute free cash flow growth. ARC, of course, once it's completed, will add, as we reported last time, roughly $1.5 billion per year. That's additional. LNG Canada Phase 2, provisionally, if we take an FID on that, we'll add the next layer in the 2030s. You asked when that's going to happen. It's likely to be before end of this year is what we are targeting along with the joint venture partners, subject, of course, to all the requisite approvals.

回到你關於額外成長的問題，我們現在開始疊加「絕對自由現金流」的成長層次。當然，ARC 一旦完成，將如同我們上次所報告的，每年大約增加 15 億美元。那是額外增加的。LNG Canada 第二期，原則上，如果我們對此做出最終投資決定（FID），將在 2030 年代再增加下一層。你問這會在何時發生。在取得所有必要核准的前提下，我們與合資夥伴的目標很可能是在今年年底前完成。

And so those layers that we are adding are really shifting us from a free cash flow per share growth, which we have said is our North Star that is maybe more weighted towards the denominator, the buybacks to one that's more balanced with continued preference for buybacks and with continued absolute free cash flow growth in the numerator. And that's the exciting story that we are trying to drive.

因此，我們正在加上的這些層次，確實正把我們從「每股自由現金流成長」——我們曾說這是我們的北極星、可能更偏向分母（也就是回購）——轉向一個更均衡的模式：在持續偏好回購的同時，也在分子端持續推動絕對自由現金流成長。這就是我們試圖推動的、令人振奮的故事。

There are multiple other projects which we are also pursuing. You touched on a couple of them. Bonga Southwest, we are hoping to be able to be in a position to FID in 2027. And Zabazaba, also around '27, '28. And so lots of good momentum going on, and these are the projects that will continue to add those layers above that base free cash flow that I talked about.

我們也在推進多個其他專案。你提到了其中幾個。Bonga Southwest，我們希望能在 2027 年具備做出最終投資決定（FID）的條件。Zabazaba 也大約在 2027、2028 年左右。因此目前有很多良好動能，而這些專案將會在我剛才談到的基礎自由現金流之上，持續疊加那些成長層次。

Hopefully, that allows you to sort of get a bit of a sense of where our mind is on some of these things. Okay. Jake, can we go to the next question, please.

希望這能讓你大致了解我們對其中一些事情的思考方向。好的。Jake，請我們進入下一個問題。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

Wael, I wonder if I could hit two things that appear to be taken on a little bit of a life of their own. One is disposals and the other is your cost-cutting target. The disposal momentum seems to have picked up here recently. And I wonder if you could just give us a refresh on what you think that visibility looks like as you monetize perhaps underperforming assets as you've done this last couple of announcements.

Wael，我想我可以問兩件似乎已經有點「自成一格」的事情。一個是資產處置，另一個是你的成本削減目標。資產處置的動能最近似乎加快了。我想請你更新一下你的看法：當你像最近幾次公告那樣將可能表現不佳的資產變現時，你認為可見度大概是什麼樣子？

And then my follow-up is on the $5 billion to $7 billion cost-cutting target. You're about halfway there, three years or two years early. So I'm wondering if you could frame for us what the risk is that those numbers get reset and any kind of magnitude you could put around that.

接著我的追問是關於 50 億到 70 億美元的成本削減目標。你們已經完成大約一半，而且比原計畫早了三年或兩年。所以我想請你幫我們框架一下：這些數字被重新設定的風險是什麼？以及你能否就可能的幅度給出一些量化的概念？

Thank you for that, Doug. I mean -- I think you mean the opportunity to reset them rather than the risk, but I hear where you're going with it. Let me talk about that second point and maybe, Sinead, if you want to touch on the divestment. On the cost-cutting targets, I think, firstly, when I stood here three years ago and talked about $2 billion to $3 billion structural cost reduction, it was hard work. We had to sort of try to mobilize the organization and figure out how we can get that.

謝謝你，Doug。我的意思是——我想你說的應該是「重新設定的機會」而不是「風險」，但我理解你想問的方向。我先談第二點；至於資產剝離（divestment），Sinead，如果你願意也可以補充。關於成本削減目標，我想首先，三年前我站在這裡談到 20 億到 30 億美元的結構性成本降低時，那是很辛苦的工作。我們必須動員整個組織，並想辦法弄清楚如何達成。

The flywheel started to turn. And we put the next target out there, the $5 billion to $7 billion, and indeed, really pleased how all of our business leaders and all of our functional leaders have really responded to the challenge. And the challenge, by the way, is not just a structural cost reduction challenge. It is a free cash flow enhancement challenge. That's what we're trying to drive. Improve reliability, improve availability, enhance business models, turn around underperforming businesses and become leaner, more focused as an organization.

之後飛輪開始轉動。我們提出下一個目標，也就是 50 億到 70 億美元；而且我們確實非常高興看到所有事業單位領導人以及各職能領導人，對這個挑戰的回應非常到位。順帶一提，這個挑戰不只是結構性成本降低的挑戰。它是一個提升自由現金流的挑戰。這才是我們要推動的方向。提升可靠性、提升可用率、強化商業模式、扭轉表現不佳的業務，並讓組織更精實、更聚焦。

So that's been embraced. We are now halfway through that band that we talked about. I continue to be encouraged by what I see, Doug. There's more and more opportunities than maybe we had banked for. And so my push to the team now is we need to be able to get to the top end of this range, and that's what we're working towards.

所以大家都接受並擁抱了這件事。我們現在已經達到我們所談區間的一半。Doug，我持續對我所看到的感到鼓舞。機會越來越多，甚至可能超出我們原先預期與已納入規劃的部分。因此我現在對團隊的要求是：我們必須能達到這個區間的上緣，這就是我們正在努力的方向。

But not only that, we need to keep thinking about what comes next. What are the other ideas? How do we leverage AI in a way that allows us to unlock more value? How do we challenge whether we are running the businesses in the most efficient way, not just against what the benchmarks of today are telling us, but what is going to be the next benchmark and how do we get ahead of the competition there?

但不只如此，我們也需要持續思考下一步是什麼。還有哪些其他想法？我們要如何運用 AI，讓我們能解鎖更多價值？我們要如何挑戰自己：是否以最有效率的方式在經營這些業務——不只是對照今天的基準告訴我們什麼，而是下一個基準會是什麼，以及我們如何在那方面領先競爭對手？

So this is much more of a culture journey than just a numbers game. And if anything, I'm energized by what I see in the organization around it. Sinead?

所以，這更像是一段文化旅程，而不只是數字遊戲。而且如果要說的話，我對於在組織內部看到的這股動能感到振奮。Sinead？

Thank you, Wael. And Doug, indeed, great question around our divestment program. And again, what I would say with respect to that is probably a couple of years ago, we talked to you about saying we want to be really good stewards of capital. We want to ensure that what we do is we reallocate capital. And that's what I would say we are doing across this company, whether it's around our distributions and back to shareholders or looking at where are we the rightful owners of certain assets or not.

謝謝你，Wael。Doug，關於我們的資產剝離計畫，確實是個很好的問題。我想再重申的是，大概在幾年前，我們曾跟你們談到：我們希望成為資本的良好管理者。我們要確保我們所做的是重新配置資本。而我會說，這正是我們在整家公司所做的事情——不論是關於我們的配息與回饋股東，或是檢視某些資產我們是否是最合適的持有人。

We're taking a lens asset by asset and making sure we look at can we extract the maximum value or should somebody else be doing that? We're then taking those proceeds and of course, reallocating those. So what you saw us do this quarter was a number of divestments came through, some of them where they were noncore like Jiffy Lube, which whilst lubricants is an excellent business for us and very strong ROACEs for us in particular, Jiffy Lube was not at the top end of that. So we put it into somebody else's hands, and you see that coming in.

我們以「一項資產一項資產」的角度來檢視，確保我們評估：我們能否萃取最大價值，或是應該由其他人來做得更好？接著我們把這些處分所得，當然再重新配置。所以你們在本季看到我們做的，是有多筆資產剝離完成，其中一些屬於非核心，例如 Jiffy Lube；雖然潤滑油對我們而言是一門很好的業務、對我們尤其有很強的 ROACE（平均資本報酬率），但 Jiffy Lube 並不在那個表現的最上緣。因此我們把它交到其他人的手上，你們也看到這筆交易落地。

Again, in the Downstream, you saw us take the tail of some of our mobility sites that's in South Africa. We've been doing that step by step, and you've heard us talk about Mexico before. So that's just normal progress for us where we're coming out of some of those.

同樣地，在下游業務方面，你們看到我們處置了位於南非的一些加油站（mobility sites）尾端資產。我們一直是一步一步在做這件事，你們也聽我們之前談過墨西哥。所以這對我們而言只是正常的進展，我們正在從其中一些資產退出。

And of course, what you saw us do in Upstream as well, liquids is key for us, but there are certain places where we look at can we get a fair price for the asset and who is the rightful owner? So when we look at that in the Gulf of America, we've got a great operator who will take control of it. It's towards end of life and it's a fair price that we get there as well.

當然，你們也看到我們在上游業務所做的動作；液體（liquids）對我們很關鍵，但在某些地方我們會評估：我們能否為該資產取得合理價格，以及誰才是最合適的持有人。因此當我們在美洲灣（Gulf of America）檢視這些資產時，我們有一位很好的營運商會接手並掌控它。該資產已接近生命週期末期，而我們也能取得合理的價格。

And then you look at our Renewables portfolio. We've talked before about where do we have capabilities versus others and hence, the exit from Sprng in India as well. That allows us to take those funds and look at how do we reallocate it. And you've seen us reallocate into many areas in Upstream like Ursa in the past in Brazil, but particularly ARC is the one.

接著再看我們的再生能源投資組合。我們之前談過：哪些領域我們具備能力、哪些領域其他人更有優勢，因此也包括退出印度的 Sprng。這讓我們能把資金拿回來，思考如何重新配置。你們也看到我們把資本重新配置到上游的許多領域，例如過去在巴西的 Ursa，但尤其是 ARC 這個專案。

Now we can't always time correctly the point at which we get a great acquisition that really fits us and divestments. But of course, when we did the deal for ARC, we knew that this divestment program was coming, and you can see that it more than offsets in terms of the cash coming through.

我們不可能總是能精準掌握何時出現一筆非常契合我們的優質併購，以及何時進行資產剝離。但當然，在我們進行 ARC 這筆交易時，我們就知道這項資產剝離計畫即將到來，而你也可以看到，就現金流入而言，它不僅足以抵銷，甚至是超過抵銷。

So that capital reallocation program is in full swing. There's much more to come on it as well as we continue to hold ourselves to account at a very high bar. And of course, it leads to a ROACE increase over time as well. Thanks, Doug.

因此，這項資本重新配置計畫正在全面推進。隨著我們持續以非常高的標準自我要求，後續還會有更多進展。當然，這也會隨時間推動 ROACE 的提升。謝謝你，Doug。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Doug. Jake, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你，Doug。Jake，請進行下一個問題。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

Kim Fustier，匯豐。

I just wanted to ask about the really remarkable operational performance in the Downstream, notably the 102% refinery utilization. I do take on board to get the range of guidance for 3Q, but maybe more conceptually, how much of this high refinery utilization rate is sustainable? I mean, how long can you continue to operate above 100%, just thinking about maintenance cycles, et cetera?

我想問一下下游業務非常亮眼的營運表現，特別是 102% 的煉油廠利用率。我理解你們對第三季提供了指引區間，但更概念性地說，這樣的高煉油利用率有多少是可持續的？我的意思是，考量到維修週期等等，你們能在 100% 以上運轉多久？

And my second question is on the ARC deal. I see that it's now scheduled to close in the third quarter, subject to remaining regulatory approval. Could you maybe give us an update on the Investment Canada approval?

第二個問題是關於 ARC 交易。我看到目前預計在第三季完成交割，但仍需取得剩餘的監管核准。你們能否更新一下《加拿大投資法》（Investment Canada）核准的進度？

You want to start with the second question, straight forward?

你要先從第二個問題開始嗎，比較直接？

Yes, happy to. Really short one on this one, Kim. Indeed, we were really thrilled with the answer that came through in terms of the shareholder vote. It was overwhelming in terms of support. We've said it is in Q3. That very much depends on the last approval, which, as you say, is Investment Canada Act. We are investing heavily in Canada, and we believe that, that will be something that comes through quite readily with good discussion with the relevant authority. We can't comment on when that would be. That will be down to their timing, but we're working it very hard at the moment.

好的，很樂意。Kim，這題我簡短回答。確實，我們對股東投票的結果非常振奮。支持度非常壓倒性。我們已說過會在第三季完成。這很大程度取決於最後一項核准，也就是你提到的《加拿大投資法》。我們正在加拿大大力投資，我們相信透過與相關主管機關的良好溝通，這項核准應該能相當順利地取得。我們無法評論何時會完成。那將取決於他們的時程，但我們目前正非常積極地推進。

Thanks, Sinead. Kim, the operational performance of Refining has been excellent. But I have to shout out all the businesses. I mean, we have been talking about performance for a very, very long time. And I hope you see now the consistency in the delivery across all the businesses. And when you have an Integrated Gas, for example, Qatari volumes out and you're still getting roughly the same LNG output, it just speaks to the rigor with which the organization is pursuing that performance drive.

謝謝你，Sinead。Kim，煉油業務的營運表現非常出色。但我必須也要稱讚所有業務。我的意思是，我們談績效已經談了非常、非常久。我希望你現在看到的是，各項業務在交付上的一致性。例如，當整合天然氣業務有卡達的產量外流，但你仍能得到大致相同的 LNG 產出，這就顯示出組織以多麼嚴謹的方式在推動績效提升。

On Refining, team's done a super job. And there's a few things. Firstly, turnarounds, in particular, safety-related turnarounds, we always pause and do what we need to do. So this is in no way changing turnaround time frames other than if it is not safety critical.

在煉油方面，團隊做得非常出色。有幾點。首先，停工檢修（turnarounds），尤其是與安全相關的停工檢修，我們一定會暫停並完成必要工作。因此，這絕不是在改變停工檢修的時間安排，除非該項工作並非安全關鍵。

And then, of course, we look at the market. I'd say the biggest difference we have seen came over the last year or so. In many people's minds, trading conceptually is traders sitting behind the desk and trying to sort of guess where the market is going. Our trading and optimization is fundamental to Shell and our business model. It is interwoven into every single one of our value chains. And where it is not, we are pushing it further and further. Which is why Andrew Smith, who heads up Trading and Supply, sits on my Executive Committee.

接著，當然，我們也會觀察市場。我想我們在過去一年左右看到的最大差異是：在很多人心中，交易在概念上就是交易員坐在桌後，試著猜市場走向。但我們的交易與最佳化是 Shell 與我們商業模式的根本。它交織在我們每一條價值鏈之中。而在尚未充分融入之處，我們也在持續更深入推進。這也是為什麼負責交易與供應的 Andrew Smith 會在我的執行委員會中。

So to give you a small example, at Norco in the US, we have moved into a model where the traders are tied at the hip with the operators, finding the right feedstock to be able to source given the dynamics in the market at the moment. And then the products traders finding what's the best placement and reading all the price signals to be able to then manage how much do we push into jet fuel versus -- or at the expense of diesel and gasoline, and how do we optimize for value.

舉個小例子，在美國 Norco，我們已轉向一種模式：交易員與營運人員緊密合作，依據當前市場動態尋找能夠取得的合適原料。接著，產品交易員再去找最佳的銷售配置，解讀所有價格訊號，以便管理我們要把多少產量推向航空燃油，或是以柴油與汽油為代價，並且如何進行價值最佳化。

And so much more of what we see at the moment is that the run rate is being determined by commercial factors driven by our trading organization in partnership with the asset. We are rolling that model out in every single one of our refineries and have tested it and really been pleased with what we see.

因此，我們目前看到更多的是，運轉率是由商業因素所決定，這些因素由我們的交易組織與資產端合作推動。我們正在把這個模式推廣到我們每一座煉油廠，也已經測試過，並對所見成果非常滿意。

And so I do continue to believe we are able to deliver performance sustainably. And of course, it will vary quarter-by-quarter depending on where we are on the turnarounds, maintenance schedules. But I have high confidence in our ability to sustain and continue to improve on what we see.

因此，我仍然相信我們能夠以可持續的方式交付績效。當然，這會因季度而異，取決於我們停工檢修與維護排程所處的階段。但我對我們維持並持續改善目前表現的能力非常有信心。

Thanks for the questions, Kim. Jake, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你的提問，Kim。Jake，請進行下一個問題。

Nash Cui, Barclays.

Nash Cui，巴克萊。

I have two, please. The first one is on trading. Just want to follow up because we have seen significant volatility in commodity prices in July. I think earlier, Sinead also mentioned the potential LNG tightness in Q3. I wonder how should we think about trading performance in Q3, please?

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於交易。我想追問一下，因為我們在 7 月看到大宗商品價格出現顯著波動。我想先前 Sinead 也提到第三季 LNG 可能偏緊。請問我們應該如何看待第三季的交易表現？

And then my next question is on CapEx. How confident are we in maintaining the CapEx guidance this year, please? Especially given the disruption in the Middle East. We have heard companies talking about higher cost for -- higher cost to get the rigs FPSO. I wonder what are you seeing in the market right now?

第二個問題是關於資本支出（CapEx）。我們對今年維持 CapEx 指引有多大信心？尤其考量到中東的干擾。我們聽到一些公司在談，取得鑽井平台與 FPSO 的成本更高——想請問你們目前在市場上看到的是什麼情況？

Nash, thank you for that. I'm going to take the first question on Trading and Supply and then maybe, Sinead, if you want to address CapEx. So firstly, indeed, we have seen that volatility play through in the past quarter. But if I step back for a second, Nash, if you'll have heard me over the last 15 quarters when I've had the privilege to be in these calls, what you'll have heard me say every single quarter is that volatility and uncertainty is what we see in the next quarter. We fundamentally believe that the energy system is inherently becoming more volatile.

Nash，謝謝。我先回答第一個關於交易與供應的問題，然後 Sinead 也許你可以回應 CapEx。首先，確實，我們看到這種波動在上一季有所反映。但如果我退一步看，Nash，如果你在過去 15 個季度我有幸參與這些電話會議時聽過我發言，你會聽到我每一季都在說：下一季我們看到的就是波動與不確定性。我們從根本上相信，能源系統本質上正變得更加波動。

So rather than worrying about the direction of the volatility, what we are focused on is the things we can control, improving the performance of our assets so that our trading and optimization organization has the molecules. We're driving hard to be able to make sure that the portfolio, the diversity of supply points and the health of the portfolio is one we would like. And of course, continuing to maintain a strong balance sheet to be able to take advantage of opportunities.

因此，相較於擔心波動的方向，我們專注在我們能控制的事情：提升資產績效，讓我們的交易與最佳化組織有足夠的分子（molecules）可運作。我們也在全力推動，確保投資組合——供應點的多元性以及投資組合的健康度——符合我們的期待。當然，也持續維持強健的資產負債表，以便把握機會。

And so our Trading and Supply. As a company, we are built to be able to handle volatility. I would argue we are the name, if somebody believes in volatility in the energy system, Shell is the name to go after. I'd also argue that we are the name to be able to be the downside price protection in the energy sector, given our Downstream footprint and given our ability to be able to unlock value even in downside volatility. And that's the business model we have built.

因此，就我們的交易與供應而言，作為一家公司，我們的架構就是為了能夠應對波動而打造。我會主張，如果有人相信能源系統的波動性，那麼 Shell 就是應該選擇的標的。我也會主張，鑑於我們在下游的布局，以及我們即使在下行波動中也能釋放價值的能力，我們也是能源產業中能提供下行價格保護的標的。而這就是我們建立起來的商業模式。

And so as we look to the coming quarters, what I can tell you is the 2% to 4% ROACE that Trading and Supply is able to deliver continues to hold. And as you would expect, we are at the top end of that range given the current volatility. And if the volatility continues into the third quarter, we expect to continue to be in a healthy part of that range.

因此，展望未來幾個季度，我可以告訴各位的是，交易與供應（Trading and Supply）能夠實現的 2% 到 4% ROACE 仍然成立。而且如各位所預期的，在目前的波動環境下，我們處於該區間的上緣。如果波動延續到第三季，我們預期仍將維持在該區間的健康水準。

We don't, of course, guide on particular numbers quarter for quarter and the traders will have to depend on where the market is. But we continue to see that this trading capability, one that others are trying to build, is a truly differentiating feature in our business case. Sinead?

當然，我們不會逐季針對特定數字提供指引，交易員也必須取決於市場所在的位置。但我們仍然看到，這項交易能力——其他人也正試圖建立的能力——確實是我們商業模式中真正具差異化的特徵。Sinead？

And the one add I would have there, Wael, is for Q3, the biggest thing we can do is ensure that the operational performance is strong, that gives the volumes to the trading team to be able to maximize value, whether there's volatility or not, but I agree on the volatility.

Wael，我想在這裡補充一點：就第三季而言，我們能做的最重要的事，是確保營運表現強勁，這能為交易團隊提供足夠的量，讓他們無論是否有波動都能最大化價值；但我同意你對波動的看法。

With respect, actually, you asked, Nash, around our CapEx and are we confident in terms of maintaining the guidance. If you remember, we had a $20 billion to $22 billion per year guidance. And when we did the ARC transaction, we increased that to $24 billion to $26 billion. The reason for that was to cover not only the cash component of the transaction, but also to cover the ongoing CapEx for the rest of the year to ensure we maximize that value from ARC.

恕我直言，Nash，你其實問的是我們的資本支出（CapEx），以及我們是否有信心維持指引。如果你記得，我們原先的指引是每年 200 億到 220 億美元。而在我們進行 ARC 交易時，我們把它提高到 240 億到 260 億美元。原因是為了涵蓋該交易的現金部分，同時也涵蓋今年剩餘期間的持續資本支出，以確保我們能從 ARC 最大化取得價值。

So our range is $24 billion to $26 billion. We are confident in our ability to be able to deliver within that range, and we continue to maintain that range at the moment. We absolutely see inflation in the system, which is what you're referring to at the moment. That varies per category. But overall, we're seeing it around that 5% to 6%, but we're able to offset much of that given our scale and those framework agreements we have, but also because we have locked in many things because we saw some of this coming as well. So we have confidence in the ability to do that.

因此，我們的區間是 240 億到 260 億美元。我們有信心能在該區間內交付，並且目前仍維持這個區間。我們確實看到系統中存在通膨，這正是你目前所指的情況。這會因類別而異。但整體而言，我們看到大約在 5% 到 6% 左右；不過，憑藉我們的規模與既有的框架協議，我們能抵消其中很大一部分；同時也因為我們預見到部分情況，已提前鎖定了許多事項。因此，我們有信心能做到。

You asked specifically about rigs. That's less of a problem for us at the moment because we had locked those in, in advance, but we do see indeed what you're seeing of much more pressure in the system around those, as prices are high at the moment.

你特別問到鑽井平台（rigs）。就目前而言，這對我們的問題較小，因為我們已事先鎖定；但我們確實也看到你所看到的——在這方面系統壓力更大，因為目前價格很高。

In particular, those deepwater rigs. Thank you, Sinead. If we can go to the next question, please, Jake.

特別是那些深水鑽井平台。謝謝你，Sinead。Jake，請我們進入下一個問題。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

JPMorgan 的 Matt Lofting。

My congratulations on strong performance in far from normalized conditions. I'd like to ask you first about Integrated Gas, very strong numbers in the second quarter despite the impact of the Qatari assets. I wondered if you could just expand on the extent to which in conditions you're seeing a degree of natural hedge almost within the business insofar as the downtime or lost volume in the Middle East being mitigated by the rest of the portfolio and perhaps stronger margins as a result that you're able to extract through the rest of that portfolio, particularly the third-party component.

恭喜在遠未正常化的環境下仍有強勁表現。我想先問整合式天然氣（Integrated Gas）。第二季數字非常強勁，儘管受到卡達資產的影響。我想請你們進一步說明，在你們所看到的環境下，業務內部是否在某種程度上存在近似「自然避險」的效果——也就是中東的停機或減量，是否被投資組合其他部分所緩解；以及因此你們是否能從投資組合其他部分（特別是第三方業務部分）取得更強的利潤率。

And then second, you mentioned earlier the strength of operational performance across the business in the second quarter, very evident. I wanted to ask you specifically about Brazil. I think you highlighted record production in the second quarter. We've seen several strong data points from that hub over the course of the last couple of years. Are your expectations of the midterm oil production that can be extracted from Brazil seeing some upward support?

第二，你們先前提到第二季全公司營運表現的強勁，這點非常明顯。我想特別問巴西。我記得你們提到第二季創下產量新高。過去幾年我們也看到該樞紐（hub）出現多個強勁數據點。你們對於中期可從巴西取得的石油產量預期，是否正在獲得一些上行支撐？

Matt, thank you for that. I'll take the second question and Sinead, leave you to the first. I mean I think on Brazil, Matt, specifically, of course, we have an enviable position there, roughly 10% of the overall production in Brazil. The old adage of big fields get bigger, of course, applies in the context of the Tupi fields, the Iracema fields, the Mero fields.

Matt，謝謝你的提問。我來回答第二個問題，第一個問題就交給 Sinead。我想就巴西而言，Matt，具體來說，我們當然在那裡擁有令人稱羨的地位，約占巴西總產量的 10%。「大油田會變得更大」這句老話，當然也適用於 Tupi 油田、Iracema 油田、Mero 油田的情境。

And so what continues to happen is that Petrobras, a great operator, continues to look at ways to be able to optimize the facilities and how they do water management, for example, how they are able to shift across their many wells to optimize production and to be able to take advantage of the opportunity right now given where commodity prices are.

因此，持續發生的情況是，Petrobras 作為一個很優秀的營運商，持續尋找方法來優化設施，以及例如如何進行水管理、如何在其眾多井之間進行調配以優化產量，並在目前大宗商品價格所處的位置下把握機會。

I don't want to make predictions as to the future, but what I can say is we continue to be very encouraged by what we see in the subsurface and importantly, in the way that Petrobras runs these assets, and we continue to hope we can contribute to support them in doing that.

我不想對未來做出預測，但我可以說的是，我們對於在地下（subsurface）所看到的情況持續感到非常鼓舞；更重要的是，Petrobras 經營這些資產的方式也讓我們很受鼓舞，我們也持續希望能貢獻力量，支持他們做到這一點。

Thank you, Wael. And in terms of the Integrated Gas portfolio, they had an exceptional quarter, I absolutely agree. Given the challenges that they had as well, not only the volatility, but also the fact that they had lost those volumes from the Middle East, a couple of things that played in. Whilst the loss in Qatar had its impact, and it definitely did, the focus was for us in order to be able to manage across the portfolio, as you say. So whether you call it a natural hedge or not, it was a portfolio management approach.

謝謝你，Wael。至於整合式天然氣投資組合，他們確實有一個非常出色的季度，我完全同意。考量到他們面臨的挑戰，不僅是波動，還包括中東那些量的流失，有幾個因素共同作用。雖然卡達的損失確實造成影響，而且確實如此，但我們的重點是如你所說，能夠在整個投資組合之間進行管理。所以不論你稱之為自然避險與否，這是一種投資組合管理的方法。

So what we saw was, particularly in Nigeria, we saw more volumes coming out of Nigeria, also from Trinidad, but also as Wael mentioned in the video as well earlier on today, specifically around Canada. So we saw LNG Canada come into its own. We're now more than 100 cargoes out from that facility. So what we saw, whilst we were really struggling, having lost the Middle East volumes, we were able to compensate from elsewhere.

因此我們看到的是，特別是在奈及利亞，我們看到更多量從奈及利亞出來，也包括千里達；另外，正如 Wael 今天稍早在影片中提到的，還有加拿大。因此我們看到 LNG Canada 開始發揮作用。我們現在已從該設施出貨超過 100 船貨（cargoes）。所以我們看到的是，雖然我們因失去中東的量而非常吃力，但我們能從其他地方補上。

On top of that, what the team did really well was almost record volumes from third party. So indeed, they went out into the market. They looked at where they could cover and in some cases, buying back some of our own cargoes that we had sold to them to be able to distribute elsewhere, i.e., taking from those customers who weren't as impacted by the Middle East and being able to push them to those who were.

除此之外，團隊做得非常好的是，第三方的量幾乎達到創紀錄水準。因此，他們確實走向市場。他們尋找可以補位的地方，在某些情況下，甚至回購我們先前賣給他們的部分自有貨物，以便再分配到其他地方；也就是說，從那些較未受中東影響的客戶那裡調出，並推送給受影響較大的客戶。

That allowed a significant [busy] compensation from what occurred in Qatar. And beyond that, some price risk management as well, which was very thoughtfully done, given the volatility and the absolute moves we saw throughout the quarter.

這使得我們能對卡達發生的情況進行顯著的補償。此外，還有一些價格風險管理，也是在考量波動以及我們在整個季度所看到的絕對價格變動下，非常審慎地完成。

But it's been a tough struggle, lots of headwinds with credit to the team, how they've been able to manage it. Thank you for the questions, Matt. Jake, let's go the next question, please.

但這一直是一場艱難的奮戰、逆風很多；也要肯定團隊能夠如何加以管理。謝謝你的問題，Matt。Jake，請進入下一個問題。

Mark Wilson, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Mark Wilson。

There's been a lot of ground covered so far. So let me ask regarding the Middle East assets, yes, obviously, Qatar, but also Pearl GTL. If a normalized shipping environment comes, could you remind us on the time to get those two facilities back to their expected capacities, please?

到目前為止已涵蓋很多內容。那我想問關於中東資產：是的，顯然包括卡達，但也包括 Pearl GTL。如果航運環境回到正常化，你能否提醒我們，這兩個設施恢復到預期產能所需的時間？謝謝。

Yes. Thanks, Mark. Let me separate three different assets. So you have Pearl GTL Train 1, same asset, but second train, Pearl GTL Train 2, and then Qatar LNG, which is the other asset that we have in Qatar. The LNG assets are typically easier to start up and to start the shipping out, of course, subject to terminal capacity, subject to storage, subject to shipping availability and the like.

好的。謝謝你，Mark。我把它分成三個不同的資產來說。你有 Pearl GTL 第一列（Train 1），同一個資產但第二列的 Pearl GTL 第二列（Train 2），以及卡達 LNG，也就是我們在卡達的另一項資產。LNG 資產通常較容易重新啟動並恢復出貨，當然仍取決於碼頭處理能力、儲存能力、船舶可用性等等。

The biggest thing we're watching out there for is just access and safe passage through the Straits. Similarly, on one of the trains at Pearl GTL, so Train 2 -- Train 1, where it would actually take in a matter of weeks to be able to get the facility back up and running. That's a facility that hasn't been impacted by the activities by the hostilities in the region. And so within weeks, we could start up that facility.

我們目前最關注的最大重點，就是能否通行以及能否安全通過海峽。同樣地，在 Pearl GTL 的其中一列裝置，也就是第 2 列——第 1 列的話，實際上只需要幾週就能讓設施恢復運轉。那是一座未受到該地區敵對行動影響的設施。因此在幾週內，我們就可以啟動那座設施。

The one that has been damaged, that second train, we expect the repairs, which are now progressing to be completed and for that facility to be ready to go, again, subject to our ability to export by end of the first quarter of next year. So by end of Q1 2027 is when we could expect that facility to be back online, subject to the conditions allowing us to ship out. Hopefully, that gives you a broad sense.

至於已受損的那一座，也就是第 2 列裝置，我們預期目前正在推進的修復工作將會完成，並使該設施具備再次投運的條件——前提仍取決於我們能否在明年第一季末之前出口。因此，最早在 2027 年第一季末，我們可望讓該設施重新上線，但仍須視條件是否允許我們外運出貨而定。希望這能讓你有一個大致的了解。

Thank you for the question, Mark. And let's go to the next question, please, Jake.

謝謝你的提問，Mark。接下來請進入下一個問題，Jake。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

Henry Tarr，Berenberg。

I had two. One was just on Venezuela. I think you're looking to push ahead with the Dragon project. I just -- any update there would be great. And then also how you're thinking about managing exposure to Venezuela?

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於委內瑞拉。我想你們正打算推進 Dragon 專案。我只是——如果能有任何最新進展會很棒。另外，你們如何思考管理對委內瑞拉的曝險？

And then secondly, clearly, so far in July, it appears as though the Downstream environment continues to be extremely strong. Is that the case that you're seeing that roll through for your refining and chems businesses so far through July?

第二個是，很明顯地，截至目前 7 月看起來下游環境仍然非常強勁。你們是否也看到這樣的情況在 7 月迄今持續反映在你們的煉油與化工業務上？

Let me start with the first one, Sinead, if you want to touch on the second one. We continue to be pleased with the progress we are making in Venezuela. You touched, Henry, on Dragon, which is one, of course, that we had been working on until the OFAC license was paused and then it has been again, of course, approved again. So we've continued work. We hope to be able to move towards an FID decision at some point in 2027, all going well.

我先回答第一個問題，Sinead，如果你願意的話請你談談第二個。我們對在委內瑞拉所取得的進展仍感到滿意。Henry，你提到的 Dragon 是其中之一，當然我們在 OFAC 許可被暫停之前一直在推進，之後也再次獲得批准。因此我們持續推進相關工作。一切順利的話，我們希望能在 2027 年某個時間點朝最終投資決策（FID）邁進。

We've also recently, of course, been granted the license for Loran Phase 1. That's a 1.7 Tcf opportunity that also could potentially tie back into the Trinidad and Tobago LNG facility, Atlantic LNG. And so the team is currently developing that opportunity.

此外，我們最近也獲得了 Loran 第 1 期的許可。那是一個 1.7 兆立方英尺（Tcf）的機會，也可能回接至千里達及托巴哥的 LNG 設施 Atlantic LNG。因此團隊目前正在開發這個機會。

Again, that's an opportunity which we think we can move pretty quickly on because it leverages existing infrastructure we are building in the Manatee development, which again will be starting up in the next 12 to 18 months. And so what you have is a nice cluster of developments, material developments that we hope to be able to bring to first -- to first gas in the coming couple of years.

同樣地，這是一個我們認為可以相當快速推進的機會，因為它可利用我們在 Manatee 開發案中正在建置的既有基礎設施，而該案也將在未來 12 到 18 個月內啟動。因此你會看到一個很好的開發群聚——多個具規模的開發案——我們希望能在未來幾年內達成首次產氣。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thank you. Indeed, with respect to what are we seeing in this next quarter in Q3, the things that we always look at, of course, are margins, then the volatility and the operational performance. So those are the three. We've talked before about needing to make sure that, that operational performance plays through, Henry.

謝謝。確實，關於我們在下一季也就是第三季（Q3）看到什麼，我們一向關注的當然是：利差、波動性以及營運表現。所以就是這三項。Henry，我們之前也談過，需要確保營運表現能夠反映出來。

And what we did have in Q2 was very few turnarounds, particularly in our Downstream business. They were very limited and those that did occur were very quickly done. You see a little bit more happening in Q3. So what are we seeing from a margins perspective specifically there? We're seeing, of course, a positive margin environment for Refining in Q3, but the chemical spreads are beginning to soften. We do see that come through. And we're seeing, of course, less volatility, which means a little bit less coming in, in terms of our Downstream business from the trading angle of things as well.

而在第二季（Q2），我們的歲修非常少，尤其是在下游業務方面。歲修非常有限，而且即便有發生，也都很快完成。第三季會多一些。那麼就利差而言，我們具體看到什麼？我們看到第三季煉油利差環境仍然偏正面，但化工價差開始走弱。我們確實看到這個趨勢反映出來。同時我們也看到波動性降低，這也意味著從交易角度來看，我們下游業務可貢獻的部分會少一些。

In particular as well, of course, from our lubricants business, it will be a little bit more challenging in this quarter because, of course, it's relying on some of the volumes coming through from Pearl, which we've just discussed, which we're not expecting to see come through in the near term. So the team are having to manage very hard to find alternatives for that and doing so very successfully so far.

另外，特別是在潤滑油業務方面，本季會更具挑戰，因為它部分依賴 Pearl 的一些供應量，而我們剛才已討論過，短期內預期不會看到這些量回來。因此團隊必須非常努力地管理，尋找替代來源，目前為止也做得相當成功。

Thanks, Sinead. Henry, thank you for those questions. Jake, next question, please.

謝謝，Sinead。Henry，謝謝你的提問。Jake，請下一題。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

Two quick ones from me. One is on the -- with the ARC transaction probably closing soon, you've got your feedstock for Phase 1 of Canada LNG. Does that change your view on the FID of Phase 2 or the scope of Phase 2 and the timing there?

我這邊兩個簡短問題。第一個是——隨著 ARC 交易可能很快完成，你們已取得 Canada LNG 第 1 期的原料氣來源。這是否改變你們對第 2 期最終投資決策（FID）的看法，或第 2 期的範疇與時程？

And then secondarily, I believe you had a discovery offshore Egypt here in the last couple of days. And I'm wondering if you could give us any kind of early indications of that.

第二個，我相信你們在過去幾天於埃及外海有一項發現。我想請問你們是否能提供任何初步的指標或訊息？

Yes. Thanks for those, James. I'll touch on both quickly. On Egypt, very early days. What the well has proven is that there's a working petroleum system there. But too early to call as to whether we can find a way to make this a commercial discovery and the follow-up implications. And so the team will be looking through that, but very early days. So nothing to sort of report there.

是的。謝謝你的問題，James。我快速回應兩點。關於埃及，目前還非常早期。這口井證實那裡存在可運作的石油系統。但現在要判斷我們是否能找到方法把它做成具商業性的發現，以及後續影響，仍然太早。因此團隊會再進一步評估，但確實還很早期。所以目前沒有什麼可特別報告的。

On ARC, Sinead talked about where we are in the process on ARC. I would just sort of say Phase 1, we had already underwritten through our existing acreage from Groundbirch. So we were very comfortable. And we had some spillover also into Phase 2. When we took the decision on the acquisition of ARC, we didn't even put Phase 2 into the base economics. That's upside if we end up taking that final investment decision.

至於 ARC，Sinead 已談到我們在 ARC 流程中的進度。我補充一下：第 1 期我們原本就已透過 Groundbirch 的既有礦區權益完成承作（underwrite）。所以我們非常有把握。而且也有部分可延伸到第 2 期。當我們決定收購 ARC 時，甚至沒有把第 2 期納入基礎經濟性評估。如果我們最後做出最終投資決策，那就是上行空間。

And so we will have enough gas to be able to underwrite a second phase if we so choose to take that FID and to be able to continue to create value through other ways as ARC themselves have been doing, creating a premium on AECO. And by leveraging our Trading and Supply organization, we hope to be able to match and improve on that as well going forward.

因此，如果我們選擇對第 2 期做出 FID，我們將有足夠的天然氣來承作第二期；同時也能透過其他方式持續創造價值，就像 ARC 自己一直在做的那樣，在 AECO 上創造溢價。並且透過我們的交易與供應組織（Trading and Supply），我們希望未來也能做到匹配甚至超越。

But lots of good work there. And upon completion of that transaction, we're really excited to welcome that ARC Resources family into Shell and really see what more we can do to unlock value and to really demonstrate to our shareholders. It's a big call we have made to be able to use, for example, paper for a good portion of this.

不過那邊有很多很好的工作正在進行。交易完成後，我們非常期待歡迎 ARC Resources 這個大家庭加入 Shell，也期待看看我們還能做些什麼來釋放更多價值，並真正向股東展現。我們做出了一個重大決定，例如在這筆交易中有相當一部分使用股票作為對價。

We recognize that we need to be able to deliver returns on it. We have already -- we see line of sight to double-digit returns. But I do expect my teams to aspire to meet mid-double-digit returns if we can and really demonstrate the value that we can create whenever we choose to use paper. And so really exciting days ahead there.

我們也認知到，我們必須交付相應的報酬。我們已經——我們看到有明確路徑可達到兩位數報酬率。但我也期望我的團隊能以達到中段兩位數報酬率為目標（如果可行），並真正展現每當我們選擇使用股票作為對價時所能創造的價值。因此未來幾天會非常令人振奮。

Let's go to the next question, please, Jake.

請進入下一個問題，Jake。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

You guys released your annual LNG presentation earlier, but you didn't have the typical webinar that you have with it. So I was wondering if I could just get your perspectives on the LNG outlook. And specifically, it looks like you're calling for perhaps a bit more of a balanced to oversupplied market into the early 2030s compared to a previous view that maybe the market should be balanced to undersupplied by then. So what has changed? And does that inform how you pace your investments in new LNG plants?

你們先前發布了年度 LNG 簡報，但這次沒有像以往一樣搭配典型的網路研討會。所以我想請教你們對 LNG 前景的看法。特別是，看起來你們預期到 2030 年代初期市場可能會更趨於平衡、甚至略偏供給過剩；相較於先前的看法，當時可能認為到那時市場應該是平衡到供給偏緊。所以是什麼改變了？這是否會影響你們在新 LNG 廠投資的節奏？

I'll say a couple of words, and then please, Sinead, add if you want to as well. Indeed, we did not this time, add a webinar, which we typically have done, and we actually delayed the issuance of the outlook because it was in the midst of the start of hostilities in the Middle East. And given how many people in the Middle East were involved in the preparation of this, we chose to pause and then just issue it without the webinar.

我先說幾句，然後也請 Sinead 視需要補充。確實，這次我們沒有加辦網路研討會——通常我們都會辦——而且我們其實也延後發布前景展望，因為當時正值中東衝突爆發之際。考量到有許多在中東的同仁參與這份報告的準備，我們選擇先暫停，之後直接發布、但不舉辦網路研討會。

But long story short, as I said earlier, the -- we reaffirmed long-term conviction about 2050 and the 65% growth. I think the biggest thing that we also wanted to point to in the LNG outlook is just how incredibly resilient the LNG market has shown itself to be.

但簡而言之，如我先前所說——我們重申了對 2050 年以及 65% 成長的長期信心。我認為我們也想在 LNG 展望中特別指出的一點，是 LNG 市場展現出令人難以置信的韌性。

Remember, at a time, when some 20% of supplies were constrained because of the blockages in the Straits, customers continue to get LNG. And so that's a key piece of the overall puzzle. So we anticipate, as per the LNG outlook, around 180 million tonnes of new annual supply to be coming into the market by 2030, which, of course, continues to strengthen that market.

請記得，在約有 20% 供應因海峽封鎖而受限的時候，客戶仍然持續取得 LNG。因此，這是整體拼圖中的關鍵一塊。所以依照 LNG 展望，我們預期到 2030 年，市場每年將新增約 1.8 億噸供應，這當然會持續強化市場。

But on the demand side, there's significant growth that we are seeing in multiple areas. We're seeing it in areas like transportation, maybe more so than we had predicted a few years ago. And we continue to see the adjacency that it plays into the power and particular into renewables.

但在需求端，我們看到多個領域都有顯著成長。我們在運輸等領域看到成長，可能比幾年前我們預測的還要多。而且我們也持續看到它在電力、尤其是在再生能源方面所扮演的相鄰支撐角色。

The biggest growth we continue to see is in Southeast Asia, in particular, countries that already depend on gas -- indigenous gas, where they are starting to mature those fields, and they need to import and leverage the existing gas infrastructure that they have in their countries. And of course, Europe continues to be a big draw on LNG coming forward.

我們持續看到最大的成長來自東南亞，特別是那些原本就依賴天然氣——本土天然氣——的國家；隨著那些氣田逐漸成熟，他們需要進口，並利用其國內既有的天然氣基礎設施。當然，歐洲未來也仍將是 LNG 的重要需求來源。

So all of that continues to play up, Jason, in our views. And no one can predict when the tightness is going to happen, but short-term disruptions are inevitable in any commodity market. The long-term outlook continues to be very, very solid. Is there anything, Sinead, that I missed?

所以，Jason，這些因素都持續反映在我們的觀點之中。沒有人能預測市場何時會轉為吃緊，但任何商品市場短期的供應中斷都是不可避免的。長期展望仍然非常、非常穩健。Sinead，我有漏掉什麼嗎？

No. Thank you.

沒有。謝謝。

Good. All right. Thank you. Thanks for the question, Jason. Let's go to the next question, please.

好。好的。謝謝。謝謝你的提問，Jason。請進入下一個問題。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Wael, I've got one question for you. Maybe you can give us a little bit of an insight into how busy your M&A team is these days. The ARC deal is about to close. Are you telling them, please don't show me any more ideas because I'm busy enough integrating ARC. Apologies, it's been a while that I've spent my time working for M&A bankers. So just a bit of color on how busy you are these days, considering how many deals you must be being shown at least.

Wael，我有一個問題想請教你。也許你可以稍微分享一下，你們的併購（M&A）團隊最近有多忙。ARC 這筆交易即將完成交割。你是不是在跟他們說：拜託不要再拿更多點子給我看了，因為我光整合 ARC 就已經夠忙了？抱歉，我有一段時間是在替併購投行工作。所以想請你稍微描述一下你們最近有多忙，畢竟你們至少一定被拿來看了很多案子。

And then if I may, Sinead, two very quick ones. I'll dare ask you two. Firstly, there has been a considerable lag in terms of cash tax payments versus the P&L in the first half. Do you expect any of that to persist or get recovered into the second half of 2027?

然後如果可以的話，Sinead，我有兩個非常快的問題。我就斗膽問你兩個。第一，上半年現金稅款支付相對於損益表（P&L）有相當明顯的落後。你預期這種情況會持續，還是會在 2027 年下半年回補？

And then maybe briefly again on the famous payout ratio. I hope you'll agree, see whether I'm putting words in your mouth that 40% in a very high absolute cash flow world is the countercyclical thing to do when it comes to the full year data when we have another two quarters under our belt.

第二，也請你簡短談一下那個著名的配發比率（payout ratio）。我希望你會同意——看看我是不是在替你說話——在絕對現金流非常高的環境下，40% 的配發比率就全年數據而言，其實是一種逆週期的做法；等我們再多兩個季度的數據之後再看。

Christopher, thank you for those questions. I'll start with the M&A one and then leave Sinead to address the others. I think the first thing I've been saying to the team is thank you for the terrific job that they have done on ARC Resources. We're not done yet. But I think the -- this was, as I've said in the past, a deal we had been looking at for a couple of years. And when the stars aligned, we really moved. So I was really proud with how they've moved on that.

Christopher，謝謝你的問題。我先回答併購那題，其他的留給 Sinead 回答。我對團隊說的第一件事是：謝謝他們在 ARC Resources 上做得非常出色。我們還沒完成。但我認為——正如我過去所說——這是一筆我們觀察了好幾年的交易。當天時地利人和時，我們就果斷行動。所以我對他們在這件事上的推進方式感到非常自豪。

Then Christopher, maybe back to what I said earlier. So I talked about how we had strengthened that free cash flow foundation, the base that we have, the $25 billion to $30 billion, and ARC having been sort of additive and potentially LNG Canada Phase 2 being additive. So I'm very comfortable with where we are on our growth trajectories at the moment.

接著，Christopher，回到我先前提到的。我談到我們如何強化自由現金流的基礎、也就是我們的底盤——250 億到 300 億美元——而 ARC 是一個加分項，LNG Canada 第二期也可能是加分項。因此，就目前而言，我對我們的成長軌跡非常有信心。

We are not constrained, but we will continue to be disciplined. We have always said we will be disciplined. We've always said we will hold ourselves to a high bar when it comes to M&A. And while, of course, we always look at multiple opportunities, what I can tell you is nothing at the moment that I have seen comes close to ARC Resources. And so that high bar will continue to play in our minds, and we'll continue to see where the opportunities emerge.

我們並不受限，但我們會持續保持紀律。我們一直都說我們會有紀律。我們也一直說，在併購方面我們會以很高的標準要求自己。當然，我們總是會看多個機會；但我可以告訴你的是，目前我看到的沒有任何一個能接近 ARC Resources。所以這個高標準會持續在我們心中發揮作用，我們也會持續觀察機會何時浮現。

If I'm to diagnose where the market is at the moment, it's clearly more of a seller's market when it comes to oil. So very little in terms of opportunity space there. But there are pockets where it might be a buyer's market, and we've looked at those. But as I said, nothing that is meeting the threshold that ARC was at. And therefore, we continue to focus on what it is that we can do, and that's to grow the fundamental free cash flow through the levers we have.

如果要我診斷目前市場狀況，就石油而言，顯然更偏向賣方市場。所以在那裡的機會空間非常有限。但也有一些區塊可能是買方市場，我們也看過那些。但如我所說，沒有任何一個達到 ARC 當時的門檻。因此，我們會持續專注在我們能做的事情上，也就是透過我們手上的槓桿來提升基本面的自由現金流。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thank you. Wael, indeed, and two slightly different ones, as you say, Christopher. On the first one in terms of the lag in cash tax payments, nothing too much on this one. It really is just the timing of when the mismatch between when you actually earn it and then when you pay it and just the timing with the payment dates set by government. So nothing really within our own control.

謝謝。Wael，確實如此；而且如你所說，Christopher，這兩題性質稍微不同。第一題關於現金稅款支付落後的部分，這方面沒有太多特別之處。主要就是時間點：你實際賺到（認列）與你實際支付之間的落差，以及政府所設定的繳款日期所造成的時點差異。所以這並不是我們自身能控制的。

It really is driven by their side of things. You typically see it a little bit higher, of course, in Q1 and Q4 versus Q2 and Q3. Of course, it shows up quite significantly when you're sitting on free cash flow this quarter of some $17 billion in one quarter. So that's where you see it start to pull out.

這確實是由他們那一端所驅動的。通常你會看到在第一季與第四季相對較高，第二季與第三季相對較低。當然，當你本季單季自由現金流約 170 億美元時，這個效果就會顯得相當明顯。所以你會看到它開始被拉出來。

And your point on payout ratio in terms of being countercyclical, you know I'm never going to guide on anything. But indeed, the 40% to 50% is what we said is definitely sacrosanct. And from our perspective, yes, we have high conviction in share buybacks, and we continue to do so. But we do focus on value. As you know, it's about value, not about affordability in this case. And you've seen the way we've acted in the past. So we're always very confident in doing our buybacks when the time is right.

至於你提到配息率在逆景氣循環方面的觀點，你也知道我從來不會就任何事項提供指引。但確實，我們所說的 40% 到 50% 絕對是不可動搖的。從我們的角度來看，是的，我們對股票回購有高度信心，並且會持續進行。但我們確實聚焦於價值。如你所知，在這種情況下，重點在於價值，而不是可負擔性。而你也看過我們過去的作為。因此，只要時機合適，我們對於進行回購一向非常有信心。

Thanks, Sinead. Jake, next question please.

謝謝你，Sinead。Jake，請下一個問題。

Maurizio Carulli, Quilter Cheviot.

Maurizio Carulli，Quilter Cheviot。

Congratulations for the excellent results, first of all. I have two questions, if I may. One probably for Wael and the other one for Sinead. For Wael, is there a case for modifying in the future the design of facilities in riskier countries like in the Middle East, so that they become more protected from physical attacks and if hit, more resilient to an easier and quicker restart of operations?

首先，恭喜你們取得優異的成果。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。一個可能問 Wael，另一個問 Sinead。給 Wael 的問題是：未來是否有必要在中東等風險較高的國家，調整設施的設計，使其更能防範實體攻擊；並且在遭受打擊時，更具韌性，能更容易、更快速地重啟營運？

And for Sinead, Shell has been historically one of the best, if not probably the best company in terms of thoroughness of financial reporting. And is there a case there for providing a bit more of detail within the financial reporting about your trading activities, particularly given that they are properly backed by assets, therefore, it's something more structural rather than what would be a trading activity of a financial institution?

給 Sinead 的問題是：Shell 在財務報導的完整性方面歷來是最好的公司之一，甚至可能是最好的。那麼，是否有必要在財務報導中就你們的交易活動提供更多細節，特別是考量到這些交易活動有資產作為適當支撐，因此更偏向結構性，而非金融機構那種純粹的交易活動？

Super, Maurizio, thank you. I'll take the first one. I loved how you approached the second one, congratulating and complimenting Sinead and then going after the jugular on trading. So I will leave her to address that one.

很好，Maurizio，謝謝。我先回答第一個。我很喜歡你切入第二個問題的方式：先恭喜並稱讚 Sinead，然後再直搗交易問題的要害。所以第二個就留給她來回應。

On modifying facilities, difficult one, Maurizio. I think the reality is with the emerging technology these days, there is no foolproof full protection. The biggest thing we can do from a company perspective is to continue to indeed add whatever layers of security we can add. And we need to continue to diversify the sources of supply in our portfolio because as we have seen, whether it's arteries getting clogged, whether it is countries involved in hostilities, there is no singular way to be able to totally sort of protect these assets. But we will continue to operate as we do in very close coordination with many of the countries in which we operate to be able to protect these assets to the best of our abilities.

關於調整設施，這題很難，Maurizio。我想現實是，以當今新興技術的發展，並不存在萬無一失的全面防護。從公司角度，我們能做的最重要事情，就是持續增加我們所能增加的各層安全防護。同時，我們也需要持續分散投資組合中的供應來源，因為正如我們所見，無論是運輸要道受阻，或是國家捲入衝突，都沒有單一方法能夠完全保護這些資產。但我們會一如既往，與我們營運所在的許多國家保持非常緊密的協調合作，盡我們所能保護這些資產。

I'd say the second big piece that we are very focused on as a company is also cyber defense. Because physical is one approach, the cyber is the other one. And we have some very, very focused efforts across the company to continue to keep up with the evolving cyber landscape and making sure that we protect our assets from an OT perspective where we can.

我想第二個我們作為公司也非常聚焦的重點，是網路防禦。因為實體是一種途徑，網路是另一種。我們在全公司推動一些非常、非常聚焦的工作，持續跟上不斷演變的網路環境，並確保在我們能做到的範圍內，從 OT（營運技術）的角度保護我們的資產。

And so that is the nature of the world we are in, and it goes back to my earlier point, we continue to see the energy system of the future being more volatile. And this is why we want to continue to be the name that can capture that upside volatility and that can protect to the downside, and that's what we can offer our shareholders.

這就是我們所處世界的本質，也呼應我先前的觀點：我們持續看到未來的能源系統將更為波動。這也是為什麼我們希望持續成為那個能夠掌握上行波動機會、同時也能在下行時提供保護的公司，而這正是我們能為股東提供的價值。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thank you, Maurizio. I always love a compliment, so thank you very much for that. I would say we often get told that our reporting is almost too thorough, that we give too much information that makes our annual report quite a tome to go through as well.

謝謝你，Maurizio。我一向很喜歡被稱讚，所以非常感謝。我會說，我們也常被告知，我們的報導幾乎過於詳盡，提供的資訊太多，讓我們的年報也變成一本相當厚重、需要花時間閱讀的巨著。

But in all seriousness around it, we are trying to make sure that we give you as much transparency as possible or give our investors as much transparency so that they can understand fully the value of this company.

但認真來說，我們希望確保盡可能提供透明度，或是讓投資人獲得盡可能多的透明資訊，使大家能夠充分理解這家公司的價值。

What we do, of course, is for us, trading is actually much more around being able to optimize around the assets of the various businesses. So it is not a segment in its own right. It is the other businesses that it pulls on for the volumes, et cetera. We allocate capital to those segments rather than specifically to trading as well, and that's why we report it in the manner we do.

當然，我們所做的事情，對我們而言，交易其實更多是圍繞各業務資產進行最佳化。因此它不是一個獨立的分部。它會從其他業務取得量能等資源。我們是把資本配置到那些分部，而不是特別配置到交易本身，這也是我們以目前方式進行揭露的原因。

We're trying to give you a bit more information around that. We've told you as an example, that we've never lost money in any quarter in the last decade, as we said in our Capital Markets Day 2025. And giving you that feel, as Wael talked about earlier, that in terms of that uplift to our ROACE of 2% to 4% in times like this where we've got a lot of volatility, trading does play out stronger and is able to utilize those volumes, and therefore, we're at the upper level of that 4%.

我們也在嘗試就此提供更多資訊。例如我們曾告訴各位，過去十年我們在任何一個季度都沒有虧損，正如我們在 2025 年資本市場日所說。而且如 Wael 先前提到的，當市場像現在這樣波動很大時，交易確實表現更強，能夠運用這些量能，因此我們對 ROACE 的提升幅度（2% 到 4%）會落在 4% 的上緣。

We're looking to give you a bit more detail on our next Capital Markets event, which we're hoping will be at some point in the first half of 2027. So we'll go into a bit more detail then as well. But thanks for the question.

我們計畫在下一次資本市場活動中提供更多細節，我們希望那會在 2027 年上半年某個時間點舉行。因此到時我們也會再更深入說明。謝謝你的提問。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Maurizio, and thank you for all your questions and for joining the call. In conclusion, we delivered a very strong set of financial results in the second quarter, supported by another quarter of strong operational performance across all the businesses. We remain focused on executing our strategy, on transforming our portfolio and on delivering on our key targets.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你，Maurizio，也謝謝你提出所有問題並參與本次電話會議。總結來說，我們在第二季交出非常強勁的一組財務成果，並且在各項業務上又一季展現強勁的營運表現作為支撐。我們仍將專注於執行策略、轉型我們的投資組合，並達成我們的關鍵目標。

We wish everyone a pleasant end of the week. And for those going on leave, a well-deserved rest. Thank you, everyone.

祝大家週末愉快。也祝即將休假的各位，好好享受一段當之無愧的休息。謝謝大家。