星巴克 (SBUX) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Hector, and I'll be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Starbucks Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    午安.我叫赫克托,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。歡迎各位參加星巴克咖啡公司2019財年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I will now turn the call over to Durga Doraisamy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Doraisamy, you may now begin your conference.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁杜爾加·多萊薩米。多萊薩米女士,您現在可以開始會議了。

  • Durga Doraisamy - Director of IR

    Durga Doraisamy - Director of IR

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2019 results. Today's discussion will be led by Kevin Johnson, President and CEO; and Pat Grismer, CFO. And for Q&A, we will be joined by Roz Brewer, Chief Operating Officer and Group President, Americas; John Culver, Group President, International, Channel Development and Global Coffee and Tea.

    各位下午好,感謝各位今天蒞臨本次會議,與我們共同探討2019年第四季及全年業績。今天的討論將由總裁兼首席執行官凱文·約翰遜和首席財務官帕特·格里斯默主持。在問答環節,我們將邀請美洲區營運長兼集團總裁 Roz Brewer,以及國際、通路開發和全球咖啡茶集團總裁 John Culver。

  • This conference call will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. Any such statements should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements in our earnings release and risk factor discussions in our filings with the SEC, including our last annual report on Form 10-K. Starbucks assumes no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements or information.

    本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。任何此類聲明都應與我們在盈利報告中的警示性聲明以及我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件(包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告)中的風險因素討論一並考慮。星巴克不承擔更新任何此類前瞻性聲明或資訊的義務。

  • GAAP results in fiscal 2019 include several items related to strategic actions, including restructuring and impairment charges, transaction and integration costs and other items. These items are excluded from our non-GAAP results. Please refer to our website at investor.starbucks.com to find the reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referenced in today's call with their corresponding GAAP measures.

    2019 財年的 GAAP 結果包括與策略行動相關的幾個項目,包括重組和減損費用、交易和整合成本以及其他項目。這些項目不計入我們的非GAAP業績。請造訪我們的網站 investor.starbucks.com,查看今天電話會議中提到的某些非GAAP財務指標與其對應的GAAP指標的調節表。

  • Additionally, as previously announced, restated GAAP and non-GAAP quarterly financial information for fiscal 2018 and through Q3 fiscal 2019 reflecting our realigned operating segment reporting structure and reclassification of certain costs can also be accessed on our Investor Relations website.

    此外,正如先前宣布的那樣,根據我們重新調整的經營部門報告結構和某些成本的重新分類,2018 財年及截至 2019 財年第三季度的重述 GAAP 和非 GAAP 季度財務資訊也可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

  • I would like to note that during today's call, we will be providing select presentation materials, which can be accessed via the webcast of this call and on our IR website at the conclusion of the call. An archive of the webcast will be available on our website through Thursday, November 28, 2019.

    我想指出,在今天的電話會議中,我們將提供一些演示材料,這些材料可以透過本次電話會議的網路直播以及會議結束後在我們投資者關係網站上取得。網路直播的存檔影片將在我們的網站上保留至 2019 年 11 月 28 日星期四。

  • Finally, for your calendar planning purposes, please note that our first quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings conference call has been tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, January 28, 2020.

    最後,為了方便您安排日程,請注意,我們 2020 財年第一季財報電話會議暫定於 2020 年 1 月 28 日星期二舉行。

  • I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

    現在我將把通話轉給凱文。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, good afternoon, and welcome. As part of my ongoing visits to Starbucks stores around the world, I'm joining today's call from Tokyo. On this particular trip, John Culver and I are joined by Nestlé senior executives to discuss our collective strategies for growth and review the great progress our teams have made implementing Global Coffee Alliance.

    下午好,歡迎光臨。作為我持續走訪世界各地星巴克門市行程的一部分,我今天將從東京參加電話會議。在這次特別的行程中,我和約翰·庫爾弗與雀巢公司的高階主管一起討論了我們共同的成長策略,並回顧了我們的團隊在實施全球咖啡聯盟方面取得的巨大進展。

  • Today, I'm pleased to share that Starbucks delivered strong operating results again in Q4, capping off a transformative year for the company as we continue to execute our Growth at Scale agenda with focus and discipline.

    今天,我很高興地宣布,星巴克在第四季度再次取得了強勁的營運業績,為公司轉型的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們將繼續以專注和嚴謹的態度執行我們的規模成長計畫。

  • Pat will review our financial results in more detail later in the call, but I'll start by sharing performance highlights for the quarter and the year as well as some key actions we've taken and important investments we've made to enable predictable, sustainable growth while delivering value for all our stakeholders as we build an enduring company at Starbucks.

    Pat 將在電話會議稍後更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績,但我首先要分享本季度和本年度的業績亮點,以及我們為實現可預測、可持續增長而採取的一些關鍵行動和進行的重要投資,同時為所有利益相關者創造價值,從而在星巴克打造一家永續發展的公司。

  • In the fourth quarter, Starbucks delivered revenue growth of 10%, excluding the 3% impact of streamline activities and foreign exchange, led by global comp sales growth of 5% and net-store growth of 7% year-over-year. These strong operating results yielded non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 for the quarter, up 13% from last year.

    第四季度,星巴克營收成長10%,不計精簡業務及匯率變動帶來的3%影響,主要得益於全球同店銷售額較去年同期成長5%及淨門市數量較去年同期成長7%。強勁的經營業績使本季度非GAAP每股收益達到0.70美元,比去年同期成長13%。

  • In the U.S., we posted comp sales growth of 6% in Q4, including comp transaction growth of 3%. That's a 2-year sales comp of 10% for Q4, a sequential improvement over our very strong results in Q3 and our best performance in the U.S. in over 2 years. In China, we posted 5% comp sales growth in Q4, including comp transaction growth of 2%. That's a 2-year sales comp of 6% for Q4, demonstrating continued positive momentum in our fastest-growing business where we increased our store base by 17% over the prior year.

    在美國,我們第四季同店銷售額成長了 6%,其中同店交易量成長了 3%。第四季銷售額年增 10%,較第三季強勁的業績有所提升,也是我們在美國兩年多來的最佳業績。在中國,我們在第四季度實現了 5% 的同店銷售額成長,其中同店交易量成長了 2%。第四季銷售額年增 6%,顯示我們成長最快的業務持續保持積極勢頭,我們的門市數量比上一年增長了 17%。

  • For the fiscal year, Starbucks delivered record results in both total net revenues and non-GAAP EPS. Total net revenues were $26.5 billion, up 10% over the prior year when adjusted for streamline activities and foreign exchange. This included 5% global comp sales growth for the year in over 1,900 net new stores globally, yielding a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.83 for fiscal year 2019, up 17% versus prior year.

    在本財年,星巴克在總淨收入和非GAAP每股收益方面均取得了創紀錄的業績。經精簡業務和外匯調整後,淨收入總額為 265 億美元,比上年增長 10%。這其中包括全球同店銷售額全年成長 5%,全球新增淨門市超過 1,900 家,2019 財年非 GAAP 每股盈餘創下 2.83 美元的紀錄,比上年增長 17%。

  • With more than 31,000 stores in 82 markets welcoming over 100 million customer occasions each week and enabling over 1 billion digital customer occasions per year, Starbucks is a part of our customers' everyday routines around the world, and I applaud the 400,000 green apron partners who deliver a premium Starbucks Experience to every customer they serve. Because of our partners, we are achieving even higher levels of customer loyalty and brand preference.

    星巴克在全球 82 個市場擁有超過 31,000 家門市,每週接待超過 1 億名顧客,每年促成超過 10 億次數位化顧客體驗。星巴克已成為世界各地顧客日常生活的一部分,我讚揚 40 萬名身穿綠色圍裙的夥伴,他們為每位顧客提供優質的星巴克體驗。正因為有了合作夥伴,我們才能獲得更高的顧客忠誠度和品牌偏好度。

  • Now let me highlight some of the key initiatives and investments that drove our strong growth in fiscal '19 and have laid the groundwork for what we expect will be another year of strong operating performance in fiscal '20. In keeping with our Growth at Scale agenda, I will talk about how we're accelerating growth in the U.S. and China, how we are extending the reach of our brand through the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé and how we've increased stakeholder returns.

    現在,讓我重點介紹一些關鍵舉措和投資,這些舉措和投資推動了我們在 2019 財年的強勁增長,並為我們預期在 2020 財年再次取得強勁的營運業績奠定了基礎。為了配合我們「規模化成長」的策略,我將談談我們如何在美國和中國加速成長,如何透過與雀巢的全球咖啡聯盟擴大我們品牌的覆蓋範圍,以及我們如何提高利害關係人的回報。

  • Now I'm very proud of the progress the team has made against our 3 focused initiatives to accelerate growth in our U.S. business: enhancing the in-store experience, delivering relevant beverage innovation and driving digital relationships. We have strong evidence that our approach is working as demonstrated by the fact that we are seeing traffic growth across all dayparts, and we intend to build on this momentum in the year ahead.

    現在,我為團隊在推進我們三項重點舉措方面取得的進展感到非常自豪,這三項舉措旨在加速我們在美國業務的成長:提升店內體驗、提供相關的飲料創新以及推動數位化關係。我們有充分的證據表明,我們的方法行之有效,正如我們看到全天各個時段的流量都在增長所證明的那樣,我們打算在未來一年裡繼續保持這種勢頭。

  • We continue to see a strong correlation between Starbucks partner engagement and customer connection, which leads to increased customer frequency. This reinforces our belief that the Starbucks Experience delivered by our partners is a key competitive advantage. And therefore, we are making targeted investments to elevate the partner experience with clear evidence that this in turn elevates the customer experience and drives growth.

    我們持續看到星巴克員工參與度和顧客聯繫之間有強烈的相關性,這會導致顧客光顧頻率的增加。這更加堅定了我們的信念,即我們的夥伴所提供的星巴克體驗是一項關鍵的競爭優勢。因此,我們正在進行有針對性的投資,以提升合作夥伴的體驗,有明確的證據表明,這反過來又會提升客戶體驗並推動成長。

  • Throughout fiscal '19 in the U.S., we invested in our partners by allocating additional store labor, increasing store-level training and simplifying in-store tasks, often with new technology. For example, we introduced a new staffing and scheduling system to optimize labor allocations based on partner preferences and predictive analytics. These investments in our partners collectively elevated customer connections as evidenced by an all-time high in customer connection scores in Q4. And we will build on this momentum with incremental partner investments in fiscal year '20.

    2019 財年,我們透過增加門市勞動力、加強門市培訓和簡化店內工作(通常是藉助新技術)來投資我們的合作夥伴。例如,我們引入了一個新的人員配置和排班系統,以根據合作夥伴的偏好和預測分析來優化勞動力分配。對合作夥伴的這些投資共同提升了客戶關係,第四季度客戶關係評分創歷史新高,證明了這一點。我們將繼續保持這一勢頭,在 2020 財年透過增加合作夥伴投資來鞏固這一成果。

  • We also continue to invest in beverage innovation. And I'm pleased to say that beverages contributed 5 points of our U.S. comp sales growth in the fourth quarter, led by the strength of our cold beverage platform. We completed our rollout of Nitro Cold Brew across company-operated stores in the U.S. this summer and introduced new cold pumpkin beverage offering, the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew, and we're very encouraged by its reception. We expect this momentum to continue as we move into the favorable holiday season, and we look forward to sharing more details with you in the weeks ahead.

    我們也會持續投資於飲料創新。我很高興地宣布,在第四季度,飲料業務為我們在美國的同店銷售成長貢獻了 5 個百分點,這主要得益於我們冷飲平台的強勁表現。今年夏天,我們完成了在美國公司自營門市推出氮冷萃咖啡的計劃,並推出了新的冷南瓜飲品——南瓜奶油冷萃咖啡,我們對它的市場反響感到非常鼓舞。我們預計隨著假期臨近,這股勢頭將繼續保持,我們期待在接下來的幾週內與您分享更多細節。

  • And finally, we have continued to pursue new opportunities to expand digital customer relationships, investing to meet customers' increasing desire for convenience and personalized offers. Supported by the successful launch of multitier redemption in early Q3, we saw U.S. Starbucks Rewards grow to 17.6 million active members at the end of Q4, a year-over-year increase of 15%. This is an important growth driver because we know from experience that when customers join Starbucks Rewards, their spend level with Starbucks increases meaningfully. On our last earnings call, I outlined the important strategic role that our digital flywheel plays in growing digital customer relationships. Clearly, that strategy is working.

    最後,我們不斷尋求拓展數位化客戶關係的新機遇,加大投資以滿足客戶對便利性和個人化服務日益增長的需求。由於第三季初多級兌換的成功推出,我們看到美國星巴克獎勵計劃在第四季度末活躍會員人數增長至 1760 萬,同比增長 15%。這是一個重要的成長驅動因素,因為我們從經驗中得知,當顧客加入星巴克獎勵計畫後,他們在星巴克的消費水準會顯著提高。在上次財報電話會議上,我概述了我們的數位化飛輪在發展數位化客戶關係方面發揮的重要策略作用。顯然,這項策略奏效了。

  • I want to highlight another very important element of our digital strategy, artificial intelligence. Over this past year, we have been dialing up our in-house capabilities and investments in AI with an initiative we call Deep Brew. Deep Brew will increasingly power our personalization engine, optimize store labor allocations and drive inventory management in our stores. We plan to leverage Deep Brew in ways that free up our partners so that they can spend more time connecting with customers. Deep Brew is a key differentiator for the future and as we continue our quest to build world-class AI capabilities to better support partners.

    我想重點強調我們數位化策略的另一個非常重要的要素:人工智慧。過去一年,我們透過一項名為「深度釀造」(Deep Brew)的計劃,不斷提升我們在人工智慧領域的內部能力和投資。Deep Brew 將日益增強我們的個人化引擎,優化門市勞動力分配,並推動我們門市的庫存管理。我們計劃利用 Deep Brew 來解放我們的合作夥伴,讓他們有更多時間與客戶建立聯繫。Deep Brew 是未來發展的關鍵差異化因素,我們將繼續努力建立世界一流的人工智慧能力,以更好地支援合作夥伴。

  • Moving on to how we've accelerated growth in China. Looking back over this past year, I'm very pleased with the progress we've made to capitalize on one of the world's most compelling growth opportunities led by strong store development, expanded digital customer engagement and category-leading innovation.

    接下來談談我們如何在中國加速成長。回顧過去一年,我非常滿意我們的進展,我們抓住了全球最具吸引力的成長機會之一,這得益於強大的門市發展、擴大的數位化客戶互動以及行業領先的創新。

  • Store development continues to be our #1 driver of growth in China. We opened over 600 net new stores in fiscal '19 and crossed the 4,000 store mark while maintaining best-in-class new store returns. As we expand our store footprint, we have also been investing in innovative retail formats, including our Starbucks Now store in Beijing that opened in July, a unique, express retail experience that seamlessly integrates physical and digital touch points to enhance the Mobile Order & Pay and the Starbucks Delivers customer experience. We are seeing encouraging early results from this new format. And in China, we plan to open new Starbucks Now stores in top tier cities in fiscal '20, leveraging this new store format to complement the third-place store formats and increase market penetration.

    門市拓展仍是我們在中國市場成長的第一大驅動力。我們在 2019 財年淨增 600 多家門市,門市總數突破 4,000 家,同時維持了業界最佳的新店回報率。隨著我們門市數量的增加,我們也一直在投資創新的零售業態,包括今年 7 月在北京開業的 Starbucks Now 門市,這是一家獨特的快捷零售體驗店,它將實體和數位觸點無縫整合,以增強行動點餐和支付以及 Starbucks Delivers 的客戶體驗。我們看到這種新形式已經取得了令人鼓舞的初步成果。在中國,我們計劃在 2020 財年在一線城市開設新的 Starbucks Now 門市,利用這種新的門市形式來補充三線門市形式,提高市場滲透率。

  • As we've expanded our physical presence in China, we've also made significant strides expanding our digital presence in this fast-growing market. The Starbucks Rewards program in China, which we upgraded in December 2018, continues to rapidly drive new membership. At the end of Q4, active members reached 10 million, up 45% over the prior year. To support this growth, we up-leveled our Tmall flagship store in September to offer our Starbucks Rewards members exclusive products and a tailor-made gift experience. And we enabled members to earn Stars from online shopping.

    隨著我們在中國實體業務的拓展,我們也在這個快速成長的市場中大幅擴大了數位業務。我們在 2018 年 12 月對中國的星巴克獎勵計劃進行了升級,該計劃持續快速地推動新會員的成長。第四季末,活躍會員人數達 1,000 萬,比上年同期成長 45%。為了支持這一成長,我們在 9 月升級了天貓旗艦店,為星巴克獎勵會員提供專屬產品和量身定制的禮品體驗。我們也讓會員可以透過網上購物賺取星星。

  • We recently celebrated the 1-year anniversary of our China digital partnership with Alibaba, and I'm pleased to share that we surpassed our goal of expanding Starbucks Delivers to 3,000 stores in 100 cities by the end of the fiscal year. This propelled mobile order sales mix in China to 10% in the fourth quarter, with 7 points coming from Starbucks Delivers and 3 points from our recently launched mobile order for pickup.

    我們最近慶祝了與阿里巴巴在中國開展數位合作一周年,我很高興地宣布,我們超額完成了在財年結束前將星巴克外送服務擴展到 100 個城市 3000 家門市的目標。這使得中國市場第四季的行動訂單銷售額佔比達到 10%,其中 7 個百分點來自星巴克外送服務,3 個百分點來自我們最近推出的行動訂單自取服務。

  • In the fourth quarter, we also ushered in a new era of digital customer engagement in China with the launch of voice ordering and delivery via Tmall Genie as we continue to enhance the customer experience around mobile ordering. These elevated digital experience is our key drivers of accelerated growth in Starbucks Rewards membership in China and provides significant momentum for us to introduce further innovations in fiscal year '20 as we work to constantly elevate the customer experience and reward loyalty.

    第四季度,我們透過天貓精靈推出語音點餐和配送服務,開啟了中國數位客戶互動的新時代,我們將持續提升行動點餐的顧客體驗。這些提升的數位化體驗是我們在中國星巴克獎勵計畫會員數量加速成長的關鍵驅動力,也為我們在 2020 財年推出更多創新措施提供了強大的動力,我們將不斷提升客戶體驗和獎勵忠誠度。

  • Moving on to the Global Coffee Alliance. Just 1 year after announcing this alliance with Nestlé, we have launched 3 new coffee platforms in over 30 new markets: Starbucks by Nespresso, Starbucks by Dolce Gusto and Starbucks roast and ground coffees. We did this in record time and ahead of schedule. In addition to the coffee platforms, we also launched a new product category, Starbucks Creamers, in North America in Q4.

    接下來是全球咖啡聯盟。在宣布與雀巢達成聯盟僅僅一年後,我們已在 30 多個新市場推出了 3 個新的咖啡平台:星巴克 Nespresso、星巴克 Dolce Gusto 和星巴克烘焙研磨咖啡。我們以創紀錄的速度提前完成了這項工作。除了咖啡平台之外,我們還在第四季在北美推出了新的產品類別——星巴克奶精。

  • We entered China's at-home and foodservice segments through the alliance, allowing Chinese consumers to enjoy some of their favorite Starbucks coffees in the comfort of their home. This partnership has enabled us to accelerate the global reach of the Starbucks brand in key markets. And looking ahead, we plan to be in 50 global markets in the first half of 2020.

    我們透過這項合作進入了中國的家庭和餐飲服務市場,讓中國消費者可以在舒適的家中享用他們最喜歡的星巴克咖啡。此次合作使我們能夠加快星巴克品牌在關鍵市場的全球擴張。展望未來,我們計劃在 2020 年上半年進入 50 個全球市場。

  • Moving on to returns to one of our key stakeholder groups, our shareholders. In the fourth quarter, we returned nearly $3 billion to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, bringing our full year shareholder capital returns to $12 billion. Including what we returned in fiscal year '18, we've now returned approximately $21 billion to shareholders, well on our way to meeting our 3-year commitment of $25 billion by the end of fiscal year '20. And I'm pleased to share that our board has approved a 14% dividend increase this quarter, making the 10th consecutive year that we've increased our dividend by a double-digit percentage. Our Growth at Scale model, combined with our strong balance sheet, position Starbucks to have the financial flexibility to both invest in our growth and reward our shareholders.

    接下來談談我們最重要的利害關係人之一——股東的回報。第四季度,我們透過股票回購和分紅的方式向股東返還了近 30 億美元,使我們全年的股東資本回報達到 120 億美元。算上我們在 2018 財年返還的金額,我們現在已經向股東返還了約 210 億美元,正朝著在 2020 財年末實現 3 年內返還 250 億美元的目標穩步邁進。我很高興地宣布,董事會已批准本季股息成長 14%,這是我們連續第 10 年實現兩位數百分比的股息成長。我們的規模成長模式,加上我們強勁的資產負債表,使星巴克擁有足夠的財務靈活性,既可以投資於我們的成長,也可以回報我們的股東。

  • In closing, our fiscal year '19 performance gives us confidence that our Growth at Scale agenda is helping unlock the full potential of the Starbucks brand. With great intentionality, we've invested in our partners, in technology and in our stores to drive long-term growth. And we have made significant progress to streamline our company through organizational restructuring and through the licensing of some international markets, enabling us to bring even more focus and discipline to the core of our business. This has helped us to accelerate the pace of innovation at Starbucks, both at the support center and in the field, to deliver relevant, meaningful and inspiring experiences for our partners and our customers. And with the plans that we've developed for fiscal year '20, including continued investment, we are excited about our ability to sustain this growth in the years ahead.

    總之,2019 財年的表現讓我們確信,我們的規模成長計畫正在幫助釋放星巴克品牌的全部潛力。我們經過深思熟慮,對合作夥伴、技術和門市進行了投資,以推動長期成長。我們透過組織結構重組和一些國際市場的許可,在精簡公司方面取得了重大進展,使我們能夠更加專注於業務的核心,並加強紀律性。這幫助我們加快了星巴克在支援中心和第一線部門的創新步伐,從而為我們的伙伴和顧客提供相關、有意義和鼓舞人心的體驗。憑藉我們為 2020 財年制定的計劃,包括持續投資,我們對未來幾年保持這種成長能力感到興奮。

  • Reflecting back on the historic Starbucks Leadership Experience we hosted in Chicago last month, it is my strong belief that the store manager plays a pivotal role in the growth and success of our company. That is why we convened 12,000 store managers and field leaders from the U.S. and Canada to reflect on and celebrate our mission and values while recommitting to the shared belief that by better serving our partners, we enable them to stand shoulder to shoulder and create best moments for our customers. This is at the center of who we are as a company and will remain a guiding light as we go forward.

    回顧上個月我們在芝加哥舉辦的歷史性的星巴克領導力體驗活動,我堅信門市經理在我們公司的發展和成功中扮演著至關重要的角色。因此,我們召集了來自美國和加拿大的 12,000 名門市經理和現場負責人,反思和慶祝我們的使命和價值觀,同時重申我們共同的信念:透過更好地服務我們的合作夥伴,我們能夠讓他們並肩作戰,為我們的客戶創造最美好的時刻。這是我們公司文化的核心,並將繼續指引我們前進的方向。

  • The Chicago leadership experience was an important milestone in our journey, and we will be back in Chicago again next month for another key milestone, the opening of our sixth Starbucks Reserve Roastery. This will be the largest Starbucks store in the world, a beautifully designed iconic store on Michigan Avenue. And I can't wait to celebrate this opening with our partners and customers, and we hope to see many of you there soon.

    芝加哥領導力培訓經驗是我們發展歷程中的一個重要里程碑,下個月我們將再次回到芝加哥,迎來另一個重要的里程碑——第六家星巴克臻選烘焙工坊的開幕。這將是世界上最大的星巴克門市,位於密西根大道上設計精美、具標誌性的門市。我迫不及待地想與我們的合作夥伴和客戶一起慶祝開業,我們希望很快能在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

  • With that, I'll turn over the call to Pat and look forward to taking your questions later in the call. Pat?

    接下來,我將把電話交給派特,期待稍後再回答大家的問題。拍?

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon, everyone. There are 3 key points that I want to emphasize today. First, fiscal 2019 was a very good year for Starbucks financially, reflecting sustained upward momentum in our business. Second, we are confident in our ability to deliver non-GAAP operating income growth of 8% to 10% in fiscal 2020, underpinned by revenue growth of 6% to 8%, demonstrating modest margin expansion even as we continue to invest for the long term. And third, we remain fully committed to our long-term model of double-digit non-GAAP EPS growth.

    謝謝你,凱文,大家下午好。今天我想強調三點。首先,2019 財年對星巴克來說是財務狀況非常好的一年,反映了我們業務持續上升的勢頭。其次,我們有信心在 2020 財年實現 8% 至 10% 的非 GAAP 營業收入成長,這得益於 6% 至 8% 的營收成長,即使我們繼續進行長期投資,也能實現適度的利潤率擴張。第三,我們將持續全力以赴,堅持實現兩位數非GAAP每股盈餘成長的長期模式。

  • I will begin by sharing segment highlights for our fourth quarter and an overview of key trends across fiscal 2019 followed by our guidance for fiscal 2020.

    首先,我將分享我們第四季的各業務板塊亮點,並概述 2019 財年的主要趨勢,然後給出我們對 ​​2020 財年的展望。

  • Our Americas segment delivered 9% revenue growth in Q4 driven by comp sales growth of 6% and net new store growth of 3% over the past 12 months. Lapping 4% comp sales growth in Q4 of last year, our U.S. business delivered an impressive 6% comp sales growth in Q4 of this year, driven equally by transactions and average ticket. These results were led by an improved in-store experience, a strong beverage lineup and increased digital engagement, as Kevin mentioned. Transactions grew across all dayparts for the second consecutive quarter, and beverage led our comp growth for a fifth consecutive quarter, driving 5 points of comp sales growth, with food contributing the remaining point.

    我們的美洲業務部門在第四季度實現了 9% 的收入成長,這主要得益於過去 12 個月同店銷售額成長 6% 和淨新增門市數量成長 3%。去年第四季度,我們的美國業務實現了 4% 的同店銷售成長,而今年第四季度,這一數字更是達到了令人矚目的 6%,這主要得益於交易量和平均客單價的共同成長。正如凱文所提到的,這些成果主要得益於店內體驗的改善、強大的飲料產品陣容以及不斷增強的數位互動。連續第二個季度,所有時段的交易量均實現成長;飲料連續第五個季度引領同店銷售成長,推動同店銷售額成長 5 個百分點,食品貢獻了剩餘的 1 個百分點。

  • The majority of the beverage growth was driven by our cold platform, which grew across all dayparts, led by cold coffee, refreshment and tea. The Nitro Cold Brew platform, which reached full penetration of our company-operated stores by the end of Q4 and was supported by national advertising for the first time in August, continued to be well received, drawing more occasional customers and slightly favoring the afternoon daypart.

    飲料業務的大部分成長是由我們的冷飲平台推動的,該平台在全天各個時段都實現了成長,其中冷咖啡、冷飲和茶飲表現尤為突出。Nitro 冷萃咖啡平台在第四季度末已全面滲透到我們公司自營門店,並在 8 月份首次獲得全國廣告支持,繼續受到歡迎,吸引了更多偶爾光顧的顧客,並且略微偏愛下午時段。

  • Our fall beverage lineup also performed extremely well, driven by the success of our pumpkin platform along with cold coffee and Nitro. Beverage attach, beverage mix and pricing contributed evenly to the 3% growth in the average ticket for the quarter.

    我們的秋季飲品系列也表現出色,這主要得益於南瓜系列飲品、冰咖啡和氮氣咖啡的成功。飲料附加費、飲料組合和定價共同促成了本季平均客單價成長 3%。

  • Americas' non-GAAP operating margin contracted by 100 basis points to 20.2% in Q4, primarily due to the onetime investment in our leadership conference as we've discussed on previous calls, growth in wages and benefits and increased investments in labor hours to elevate the in-store experience while accommodating higher volumes. These increases in expense more than offset meaningful contributions from sales leverage and cost savings initiatives, notably, supply chain efficiencies.

    美洲地區的非GAAP營業利潤率在第四季度下降了100個基點至20.2%,這主要是由於我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的對領導力會議的一次性投資、工資和福利的增長以及為提升店內體驗而增加的工時投資,同時還要應對更高的銷量。這些支出增加遠遠抵消了銷售槓桿和成本節約措施(特別是供應鏈效率)的顯著貢獻。

  • Moving on to our International segment, which delivered revenue growth of 6% on a reported basis in Q4. Excluding the unfavorable impact of streamline-related activities and foreign exchange at 5% and 1%, respectively, revenue grew 12% in the quarter. This was driven by 11% net new store growth over the past 12 months and 3% comp sales growth.

    接下來是我們的國際業務板塊,在第四季度實現了 6% 的收入成長(按報告資料計算)。剔除精簡相關活動和外匯分別帶來的 5% 和 1% 的不利影響,本季營收成長了 12%。這主要得益於過去 12 個月內新增門市淨成長 11% 和同店銷售額成長 3%。

  • I would now like to highlight the fourth quarter performance of our lead international growth market: China. New store development continues to be our #1 driver of growth in China, and I'm pleased to say that our pace of development in Q4 set a new record as we opened 201 net new stores, growing store count by 17% versus the prior year. Importantly, our new stores continued to deliver exceptionally high returns even as we extended our presence to new cities while infilling established cities. China delivered comp sales growth of 5% in Q4, including 2% comp transaction growth, led by the strength in digital customer engagement, primarily the growth of delivery, Starbucks Rewards loyalty program and MOP.

    現在我想重點介紹一下我們領先的國際成長市場——中國——第四季的表現。新店開發仍然是我們在中國成長的第一大動力,我很高興地告訴大家,我們在第四季的發展速度創下了新紀錄,淨增新店 201 家,比去年同期成長了 17%。重要的是,即使在我們向新城市擴張並填充現有城市的同時,我們的新店仍然持續帶來極高的回報。中國第四季同店銷售額成長 5%,其中同店交易量成長 2%,主要得益於數位化顧客互動的強勁成長,尤其是外送業務、星巴克獎勵忠誠度計畫和 MOP 的成長。

  • Our International segment's non-GAAP operating margin increased by 70 basis points to 21.7% in Q4. When excluding the 60 basis point favorable impact from streamline-related activities, the segment's non-GAAP operating margin increased by 10 basis points as the benefits of sales leverage, cost savings initiatives and labor productivity were largely offset by growth in wages and benefits, an unfavorable shift in product mix and strategic investments.

    第四季度,我們國際業務部門的非GAAP營業利潤率成長了70個基點,達到21.7%。在剔除精簡相關活動帶來的 60 個基點有利影響後,該部門的非 GAAP 營業利潤率提高了 10 個基點,因為銷售槓桿、成本節約措施和勞動生產力提高帶來的好處很大程度上被工資和福利增長、產品組合的不利變化和戰略投資所抵消。

  • On to Channel Development. Revenue declined 6% in Q4. Excluding the impact of streamline-related activities, primarily the Global Coffee Alliance, segment revenues increased approximately 5%. Non-GAAP operating margin declined by 510 basis points to 37.6% in Q4. When excluding the 310 basis point impact related to streamline, Channel Development's operating margin declined 200 basis points in Q4 fiscal 2019 primarily due to an and unfavorable shift in revenue mix.

    接下來是通路開發。第四季營收下降6%。剔除精簡相關活動(主要是全球咖啡聯盟)的影響,該部門營收成長約 5%。第四季非GAAP營業利益率下降510個基點至37.6%。在剔除與精簡相關的 310 個基點的影響後,通路發展公司 2019 財年第四季的營業利潤率下降了 200 個基點,主要原因是收入結構發生了不利變化。

  • I'd now like to take a step back and share some key insights from our full year performance, underscoring our upward momentum across the year. Let's start with revenue. For the year, we reported top line growth of 7%. Excluding the 3% unfavorable impact of streamline and foreign exchange combined, our revenues grew 10% above our long-term growth algorithm of 7% to 9%. These results demonstrate our potential to outperform our long-term model.

    現在我想回顧一下,分享我們全年業績的一些關鍵見解,重點強調我們全年的上升勢頭。我們先從收入說起。本年度,我們的營收成長了 7%。排除精簡流程和外匯匯率合計帶來的 3% 不利影響,我們的營收比長期成長演算法預期的 7% 至 9% 高出 10%。這些結果表明我們有潛力超越我們的長期模型。

  • In the first 6 months of fiscal 2019, be reversed the negative trend in U.S. comp transaction growth that had persisted for several quarters and sustained it at 3% in the second half of the year. The turnaround in China's comp transaction growth moving from declines in the low to mid-single digits last year to an increase of 2% this year was equally impressive, especially considering our accelerated pace of store development in that market.

    在 2019 財年的前 6 個月,扭轉了美國同店交易成長持續數季的負成長趨勢,並在下半年維持了 3% 的成長。中國同店交易成長從去年個位數低至中位數的下滑轉為今年 2% 的成長,這一轉變同樣令人印象深刻,尤其考慮到我們在該市場加快了門市開發步伐。

  • And speaking of China development, it's worth noting that our store openings in lower-tier cities in China accounted for a meaningfully higher percentage of total store growth in that market versus the prior year. Yet portfolio investment returns remained very robust, demonstrating Starbucks' resonance with China's growing middle class.

    說到中國市場的發展,值得注意的是,我們在中國低線城市開設的新店數量佔該市場門市總數成長的比例,比前一年顯著提高。然而,投資組合的回報依然非常強勁,這顯示星巴克與中國日益壯大的中產階級產生了共鳴。

  • Our store development in the U.S. was also quite healthy as we grew net new stores by 3% in fiscal '19, even with the higher level of closures relative to the prior year as we repositioned our store portfolio for future growth. This is industry-leading domestic growth for a retail business of Starbucks' scale, and coupled with relatively low penetration in certain geographies, gives us confidence that we'll continue to achieve our 3% to 4% ongoing net new store growth target in the U.S.

    我們在美國的門市發展也相當健康,2019 財年淨新增門市數量增加了 3%,儘管與前一年相比,由於我們重新調整了門市組合以促進未來的成長,門市關閉數量有所增加。對於星巴克這樣規模的零售企業來說,這是業界領先的國內成長,再加上某些地區的滲透率相對較低,這讓我們有信心繼續實現我們在美國持續淨新增門市成長 3% 至 4% 的目標。

  • Moving to margin. We reported consolidated operating margin of 17.2% for fiscal 2019 on a non-GAAP basis, down 80 basis points year-over-year and in line with our ongoing model of 17% to 18%. That said, I would like to highlight some anomalous items that impacted our year-over-year margin performance: 4 headwinds and 1 tailwind.

    移至邊際。我們公佈的 2019 財年非 GAAP 合併營業利潤率為 17.2%,年減 80 個基點,與我們持續的 17% 至 18% 的模式一致。儘管如此,我還是想重點指出一些影響我們年比利潤率表現的異常因素:4 個不利因素和 1 個有利因素。

  • The 4 headwinds were: 70 basis points from streamline-driven activities; 50 basis points from U.S. tax reform-funded investments; 20 basis points from Siren Retail; and another 20 basis points from our onetime investment in the Chicago leadership conference. The 1 tailwind was 40 basis points from stored value card breakage due to a change in accounting treatment. Adjusting for all these items, consolidated non-GAAP operating margin was up 40 basis points, reflecting the benefits of sales leverage and productivity improvements, partially offset by nontax reform-funded investments in our partners, technology, product innovation and stores. As Kevin mentioned earlier, we believe these investments are critical to strengthening our competitive position in order to sustain long-term growth consistent with our ongoing growth algorithm.

    4 個不利因素分別是:精簡活動帶來的 70 個基點;美國稅改資助的投資帶來的 50 個基點;Siren Retail 帶來的 20 個基點;以及我們對芝加哥領導力會議的一次性投資帶來的另外 20 個基點。1個利好因素是:由於會計處理方式的改變,儲值卡損壞率上升了40個基點。在調整所有這些項目後,合併非GAAP營業利潤率上升了40個基點,反映了銷售槓桿和生產力提高帶來的益處,但部分被非稅改資金資助的對合作夥伴、技術、產品創新和門市的投資所抵消。正如凱文之前提到的,我們認為這些投資對於加強我們的競爭地位至關重要,以便維持符合我們持續成長演算法的長期成長。

  • And finally, EPS. We reported full year non-GAAP EPS of $2.83, above the high end of our previous guidance. Excluding a 7% benefit from unplanned tax favorability and a 1% benefit from streamline-related activities, partially offset by a 1% headwind from foreign exchange, non-GAAP EPS growth was 10%, consistent with our long-term EPS growth model of at least 10%.

    最後是每股盈餘 (EPS)。我們公佈的全年非GAAP每股收益為2.83美元,高於我們先前預期的上限。剔除計劃外稅收優惠帶來的 7% 收益和精簡相關活動帶來的 1% 收益(部分被外匯帶來的 1% 不利因素抵消),非 GAAP 每股收益增長 10%,與我們至少 10% 的長期每股收益增長模型相符。

  • So in summary, our fiscal '19 results not only reinforce our confidence in the strategies we're implementing to grow the business but also demonstrate the robustness of our long-term double-digit EPS growth algorithm.

    總而言之,我們 2019 財年的業績不僅增強了我們對正在實施的業務成長策略的信心,也證明了我們長期兩位數 EPS 成長演算法的穩健性。

  • Moving on to our guidance for fiscal 2020 starting with the key driver of our growth, company-operated comp sales growth. Globally, we are expecting comp sales growth of 3% to 4% in fiscal 2020, fueled by our 2 lead growth markets: the U.S. at 3% to 4%, and China at 1% to 3%. All of this is consistent with our ongoing growth model.

    接下來,我們展望 2020 財年,首先從我們成長的關鍵驅動因素——公司自營同店銷售成長開始。在全球範圍內,我們預計 2020 財年同店銷售額將成長 3% 至 4%,這主要得益於我們兩大成長市場:美國(成長 3% 至 4%)和中國(成長 1% 至 3%)。這一切都與我們持續成長的模式相符。

  • Moving on to the next key growth driver, retail store development. We expect to add approximately 2,000 net new Starbucks stores globally in fiscal 2020, a sequential improvement over fiscal '19. Over half will be located in the U.S. and China combined, with China delivering approximately 600 net new stores, representing mid-teens growth versus the prior year. As with comp growth, this is consistent with our ongoing growth model.

    接下來是另一個關鍵成長驅動因素:零售門市開發。我們預計在 2020 財年,星巴克在全球將新增約 2,000 家門市,比 2019 財年有成長。超過一半的門市將位於美國和中國,其中中國將新增約 600 家門市,比前一年增加 15% 左右。與公司業績成長一樣,這與我們持續的成長模式是一致的。

  • With his combination of comp growth and unit growth, we are expecting enterprise-level top line growth of 6% to 8% in fiscal 2020. The 1 percentage point difference between next year's expected revenue growth and our ongoing growth model of 7% to 9% revenue growth is attributable to 2 things: number one, the sale of our ownership interest in Thailand in mid-fiscal 2019; and number two, an expected 7% to 8% decline in Channel Development's revenue as we lap certain items related to the Global Coffee Alliance that benefited the segment's top line growth in fiscal 2019.

    憑藉其同業成長和銷售成長,我們預計 2020 財年企業營收將成長 6% 至 8%。明年預期收入成長與我們持續成長模式的 7% 至 9% 收入成長之間的 1 個百分點差異,歸因於兩件事:第一,我們在 2019 財年中期出售了我們在泰國的股權;第二,由於我們不再享受與全球咖啡聯盟相關的某些項目帶來的收益,渠道發展部門的收入預計將下降 7% 至 809%,這些項目在 2019年

  • Adjusting for these items, Channel Development's revenue growth in fiscal 2020 is expected to be at the lower end of our ongoing range of 4% to 6%. The Global Coffee Alliance became EPS accretive in fiscal 2019, outperforming our original expectations. And we expect it to continue to be EPS accretive on a cumulative basis, including the associated share repurchase benefit funded in Q1 of fiscal '19 by $5 billion of after-tax proceeds from Nestlé.

    在調整這些項目後,預計 Channel Development 在 2020 財年的營收成長將處於我們持續預測的 4% 至 6% 範圍的下限。全球咖啡聯盟在 2019 財年實現了每股收益成長,超出了我們最初的預期。我們預計,從累積角度來看,它將繼續增加每股收益,其中包括雀巢在 2019 財年第一季提供的 50 億美元稅後收益所帶來的相關股票回購收益。

  • Let's move on to fiscal 2020 operating margin. Globally and across each of our operating segments, non-GAAP operating margin is expected to improve modestly over fiscal 2019 primarily due to sales leverage, cost savings initiatives across our supply chain and overhead efficiencies. The favorability from these items is expected to be partially offset by continued investments in our company-operated retail business primarily related to our partners and technology.

    接下來我們來看2020財年的營業利益率。在全球範圍內以及我們各個營運部門,非GAAP營業利潤率預計將比2019財年略有改善,這主要得益於銷售槓桿、供應鏈中的成本節約措施以及管理費用效率的提高。這些項目帶來的利好預計將被公司持續投資於公司自營零售業務(主要與我們的合作夥伴和技術相關)所部分抵消。

  • Let me add 2 additional points to the operating margin equation for fiscal 2020. First, commodities are expected to have minimal year-over-year impact on cost of goods sold as we expect favorability in green coffee prices net of farmer support payments to be more than offset by higher dairy costs. At this point, our overall coffee needs are over 80% price-locked for fiscal 2020.

    讓我為 2020 財年的營業利益率公式再補充 2 點。首先,由於我們預期扣除農民補貼後的生咖啡價格上漲幅度將被更高的乳製品成本所抵消,因此大宗商品價格對銷售成本的同比影響預計微乎其微。截至目前,我們2020財年的咖啡需求已鎖定超過80%的價格。

  • Second, a few comments on G&A. Net of investments, we expect meaningful G&A leverage in fiscal 2020 due to organizational efficiencies, the completion of Roastery development and the lap of our leadership conference. The recent reclassification of certain line items in the middle of our P&L also meaningfully benefits G&A while adversely impacting store operating expenses. As a result, while our long-term operating income margin target of 17% to 18% still includes a 100 basis point overhead efficiency improvement through fiscal '21, it is now spread across G&A and store operating expenses.

    其次,關於一般及行政費用,有幾點需要說明。扣除投資後,由於組織效率的提高、烘焙廠建設的完成以及領導層會議的召開,我們預計 2020 財年 G&A 槓桿作用將顯著增強。最近對損益表中某些項目的重新分類,也顯著有利於一般及行政費用,但對門市營運費用產生了不利影響。因此,雖然我們 17% 至 18% 的長期營業利潤率目標仍包括在 2021 財年實現 100 個基點的間接費用效率提升,但現在這部分提升已分攤到一般及行政費用和門市營運費用中。

  • Below the operating income line, we expect considerably higher interest expense, ranging between $415 million and $425 million in fiscal 2020 versus approximately $330 million in fiscal 2019. This is driven by debt issuances totaling $5 billion in the past 14 months, combined with what we expect to issue this fiscal year. Importantly, we remain committed to maintaining our leverage ratio below 3x adjusted debt to EBITDAR.

    在營業收入之外,我們預計 2020 財年的利息支出將大幅增加,介於 4.15 億美元至 4.25 億美元之間,而 2019 財年約為 3.3 億美元。這是由於過去 14 個月累計發行了 50 億美元的債券,再加上我們預計本財年將要發行的債券。重要的是,我們仍然致力於將槓桿率維持在調整後債務與EBITDAR比低於3倍的水平。

  • As to the tax rate in fiscal 2020, we expect our effective GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates to be between 22% and 24%. This compares with a non-GAAP rate of 19.4% in fiscal 2019, which benefited from certain unplanned tax items that are not expected to repeat to the same degree in fiscal 2020.

    至於 2020 財年的稅率,我們預期實際 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率將在 22% 到 24% 之間。相較之下,2019 財年的非 GAAP 比率為 19.4%,這得益於某些計劃外的稅收項目,預計這些項目在 2020 財年不會以同樣的程度重複出現。

  • Capital expenditures in fiscal 2020 are expected to total approximately $1.8 billion, roughly flat to fiscal 2019, reflecting the opening of our final Roastery next month and the licensing of several company-operated markets. Over 80% of our capital spending in fiscal 2020 will be allocated to where we see significant return opportunities within our Starbucks retail portfolio, new stores and strategic store-related initiatives, including renovations of existing locations. Finally, at this juncture, we foresee minimal impact from foreign currency movements in fiscal 2020.

    2020 財年的資本支出預計總計約為 18 億美元,與 2019 財年大致持平,這反映了我們下個月最後一家烘焙廠的開業以及幾家公司自營市場的許可。2020 財年,我們將把 80% 以上的資本支出分配給星巴克零售組合中具有重大回報機會的項目,包括新店和與門市相關的策略舉措,以及現有門市的翻新。最後,在目前階段,我們預期 2020 財年外匯波動的影響將微乎其微。

  • So when you add it all up, our total revenue growth of 6% to 8% for fiscal 2020 is expected to translate into non-GAAP operating income growth of 8% to 10%, consistent with our ongoing growth model. We expect GAAP EPS in the range of $2.84 to $2.89, down slightly from fiscal 2019 due largely to the lap of the onetime gain attributable to the licensing of our Thailand operations. We expect non-GAAP EPS in the range of $3 to $3.05, representing growth of 6% to 8%. Excluding the increase in our effective tax rate as we lap certain items that benefited fiscal 2019, this equates to expected non-GAAP EPS growth of 11% to 13% in fiscal '20, consistent with our ongoing model of at least 10% EPS growth.

    因此,綜合來看,我們預計 2020 財年總收入將成長 6% 至 8%,將轉化為非 GAAP 營業收入成長 8% 至 10%,這與我們持續成長的模式相符。我們預計 GAAP 每股收益將在 2.84 美元至 2.89 美元之間,較 2019 財年略有下降,這主要是由於泰國業務許可帶來的一次性收益尚未計入。我們預期非GAAP每股收益在3美元至3.05美元之間,成長6%至8%。不計入因 2019 財年某些受益項目而導致的有效稅率上升,這相當於 2020 財年非 GAAP 每股收益預期增長 11% 至 13%,與我們持續至少 10% 的每股收益增長模式一致。

  • As a reminder, we expect the lap of income tax rate favorability for fiscal 2019 will impact our quarter-to-quarter non-GAAP EPS growth in fiscal 2020 with Q1 being the lowest at flat to down slightly given a 9 percentage point EPS growth headwind tied to last year's tax rate. Additionally, with the lap of the leadership conference in fiscal 2019, we expect year-over-year non-GAAP EPS growth to be at its highest in Q4 for fiscal 2020. And with respect to quarterly cash flows, we expect to make a tax payment of approximately $1 billion related to the Nestlé transaction in early Q2.

    提醒一下,我們預計 2019 財年所得稅稅率優惠政策將影響 2020 財年季度間非 GAAP 每股收益增長,其中第一季最低,持平或略有下降,因為去年的稅率帶來了 9 個百分點的每股收益增長逆風。此外,由於 2019 財年領導層會議已結束,我們預計 2020 財年第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘將年增至最高水準。至於季度現金流,我們預計將在第二季初支付與雀巢交易相關的約 10 億美元的稅金。

  • So let me wrap things up. First, we are very pleased with our in fiscal '19 results. Second, we expect that fiscal '20 will be another good year for Starbucks, delivering 8% to 10% operating profit growth. This demonstrates that we are executing very well from an operational perspective, underpinned by continued focus in discipline. And third, we are fully committed to our long-term model of double-digit non-GAAP EPS growth and will continue to make the investments necessary to sustain this growth over the long term.

    那麼,我就總結一下吧。首先,我們對 2019 財年的業績非常滿意。其次,我們預期 2020 財年對星巴克來說又將是美好的一年,營業利潤將成長 8% 至 10%。這表明,從營運角度來看,我們的執行力非常強,這得益於我們持續堅持紀律。第三,我們完全致力於實現兩位數非GAAP每股盈餘成長的長期模式,並將繼續進行必要的投資,以維持這種長期成長。

  • With that, Kevin and I are happy to take your questions, joined by Roz Brewer and John Culver as Durga outlined at the top of our call. Thank you. Operator?

    因此,我和凱文很高興回答大家的問題,羅茲·布魯爾和約翰·庫爾弗也加入了我們,正如杜爾加在電話會議開始時概述的那樣。謝謝。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David Tarantino with Baird.

    (操作說明)你的第一個問題來自大衛·塔倫提諾和貝爾德的對話。

  • David E. Tarantino - Co-Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst

    David E. Tarantino - Co-Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst

  • Congratulations on great results here. My questions on the Americas traffic strength you've seen, it seems like you've picked up some momentum here even as you look at relative to the last quarter, you're cycling a tougher comparison. So I was wondering if you could just talk about the elements that drove that? And whether operations -- I know you said you saw traffic positive throughout all the dayparts. I'm wondering how big of an impact you think operations have versus some of the product news you had during the quarter?

    恭喜你取得如此優異的成績。關於您看到的美洲地區的流量成長情況,我的問題似乎是,即使與上個季度相比,您似乎也獲得了一些成長勢頭,但這確實是一個更艱難的比較。所以我想知道您能否談談促成這件事的因素?至於營運方面——我知道你說過你看到一整天各時段的客流量都呈現正態勢。我想知道您認為營運方面的影響與本季發布的一些產品新聞相比有多大?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • David, thanks for the question. Roz, do you want to take that one for us?

    大衛,謝謝你的提問。羅茲,你想替我們去嗎?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Sure, I'll take that one. David, thank you for the congratulations. And it was a combination of both. So within the quarter, 2 things happened. We -- beverage innovation continued, but we also promoted beverages pretty heavily in the quarter. And so we promoted -- the plans were for early July, beginning with our flavored iced teas and then the fall beverage lineup, highlighted by the pumpkin platform. And that helped immensely, in addition to the work that we've done to free up the work and the administrative work of our partners in the stores so that they can engage with the customers allowed them to have great interactions. And we were able to see that in all dayparts. Additionally, our drive-through business continues to grow well, and you'll see that continue through fiscal year '20.

    好的,我收下這個。大衛,謝謝你的祝賀。兩者兼而有之。所以,在這個季度內,發生了兩件事。我們——飲料創新仍在繼續,但我們在本季也大力推廣飲料。因此我們進行了推廣——計劃從 7 月初開始,首先推出我們的風味冰茶,然後推出秋季飲品系列,其中以南瓜口味為亮點。此外,我們也減輕了門市合作夥伴的工作和行政負擔,使他們能夠與顧客互動,這極大地促進了顧客與門市的良好互動。而且我們在一天中的所有時段都看到了這一點。此外,我們的免下車服務業務持續良好成長,您將會看到這種成長動能延續到 2020 財年。

  • I will also mention that the work that we continue to do to engage our customers from a digital perspective has also been helpful, particularly when we introduced multitier redemption. And that's allowing us to speak with our occasional customer, and they're engaged in both the afternoon as well as our Happy Hour business.

    我還要提到,我們持續從數位化角度與客戶互動所做的工作也很有幫助,尤其是在我們推出多層兌換機制之後。這樣一來,我們就能與偶爾光顧的顧客交流,他們既參與下午的營業,也參與我們的歡樂時光活動。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • And David, I'll just punctuate. The Growth at Scale agenda really is about delivering predictable, sustainable growth. And to do that, we've really sharpened the focus on the elements that Roz mentioned and are executing with discipline. So if you look at the 3 initiatives that we prioritize for this, elevate the experience in our stores, drive relevant beverage innovation for our customers and grow digital customer relationships, those 3 things are what's driving an all-time high in customer connection scores. That is, in turn, driving traffic growth. And those same 3 priorities that we've focused on throughout fiscal year '19 will be the same ones we continue to drive in fiscal year '20. And that's part of what gives us confidence that we are pushing on the right elements that we think differentiates the Starbucks brand versus alternatives in the market, strengthens the connection between our partners and the customers, driving customer connection scores to an all-time high, and in turn, driving traffic and growth.

    大衛,我就負責加標點符號。規模化成長議程的真正意義在於實現可預測、可持續的成長。為了實現這一目標,我們更加重視羅茲所提到的那些要素,並且正在嚴格執行中。因此,如果你看看我們優先考慮的 3 項舉措:提升門市體驗、為顧客推動相關的飲料創新以及發展數位化客戶關係,這 3 件事正是推動客戶聯繫評分達到歷史新高的原因。這反過來又會推動交通流量成長。我們在 2019 財政年度重點關注的這 3 個優先事項,也將是我們 2020 財年繼續推進的重點。正是這一點讓我們有信心,我們正在推進我們認為能夠使星巴克品牌區別於市場上其他品牌的正確要素,加強我們的伙伴與顧客之間的聯繫,將顧客聯繫度提升到歷史新高,進而推動客流量和增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Katherine Fogertey with Goldman Sachs.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·福格蒂。

  • Katherine Irene Fogertey - VP & Derivatives Research Strategist

    Katherine Irene Fogertey - VP & Derivatives Research Strategist

  • My question actually is about the new espresso machines that you guys were trialing and testing but it looks like you're rolling them out a little bit more broadly here. Curious what kind of benefits you're seeing from the new machines, both in customer satisfaction, quality and throughput. How many stores have them? And how long will it take for the whole base to, at least in the company-owned side, to get an upgrade to these new machines?

    我的問題其實是關於你們之前試用和測試的新型義式咖啡機,但現在看來你們似乎要更廣泛地推廣它們了。很好奇您從新機器中看到了哪些好處,包括客戶滿意度、品質和產量。有多少家店有售?至少在公司擁有的基地內,整個基地需要多長時間才能完成這些新機器的升級換代?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Yes. So...

    是的。所以...

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Go ahead, Roz.

    請繼續,羅茲。

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Katherine, so concerning the Mastrena machines that you're referring to for espresso engagement in our stores, yes, we are improving the number of Mastrena machines we have across the fleet. In addition to that, I think you're aware that we also placed Nitro machines in all of our U.S. company-operated stores as well. This is representing the work that we're doing with beverage innovation. We're continuing that expansion with Mastrena and should finish that work in the next 12 months or so.

    Katherine,關於你提到的用於我們門市濃縮咖啡製作的 Mastrena 咖啡機,是的,我們正在增加我們所有門市的 Mastrena 咖啡機的數量。除此之外,我想您也知道,我們還在所有美國公司自營門市都配備了Nitro機器。這代表了我們在飲料創新方面所做的工作。我們正在與 Mastrena 繼續進行擴張,這項工作應該會在未來 12 個月左右完成。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Katherine, there's 3 key benefits of this new Mastrena machine that I want to really punctuate. Number one is it can pull a triple shot espresso with 1 pull. Today, in our older machines, you have to pull a Doubleshot and then another single shot for any beverage that has 3 shots of espresso. So just that alone reduces the amount of time that a partner at the bar would need to take if they're preparing a beverage that has 3 shots of espresso in it. So that's number one, big efficiency unlock. Number two, those machines have Internet of Things sensors built into them. And so we get telemetry data that comes into our support center. We can see every shot of espresso that's being pulled, and we can see centrally if there is a machine that's out that needs tuning or maintenance. And that allows us to improve the quality of the shots that we're pulling. And third, with the Deep Brew and our predictive analytics, we're going to be able to determine if a machine needs preventative maintenance on it before it breaks. And so that simplifies things for our partners. John, you want to comment on the...

    凱瑟琳,這款新的 Mastrena 機器有 3 個主要優點,我想重點強調一下。第一點是它一次就能萃取出三份濃縮咖啡。如今,在我們較老的咖啡機上,任何含有 3 份濃縮咖啡的飲品,都需​​要先萃取一份雙份濃縮咖啡,然後再萃取一份單份濃縮咖啡。因此,僅此一項就能減少吧台工作人員準備含有 3 份濃縮咖啡的飲料所需的時間。所以,第一點就是大幅提升效率。第二,這些機器內建了物聯網感測器。因此,我們的支援中心會收到遙測資料。我們可以看到每一杯濃縮咖啡的萃取過程,也可以從中央系統查看是否有機器故障需要調整或維護。這樣一來,我們就能提升拍攝品質。第三,借助 Deep Brew 和我們的預測分析技術,我們將能夠在機器發生故障之前確定它是否需要預防性維護。這樣就簡化了我們合作夥伴的工作。約翰,你想對…發表評論嗎?

  • John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

    John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

  • I would just say, Katherine, on the international side, we're also rolling the machines out internationally as well. And I think the benefits that both Roz and Kevin hit on are important benefits that we're seeing translate into the international markets as well. I would also just add that our partners absolutely love these machines, and it gives them much more visibility to the customer due to the lower profile of the machine itself, being able to interact with customers and engage with them. And the benefits thus far are very meaningful for the business across all markets.

    凱瑟琳,我想說的是,在國際方面,我們也正在國際範圍內推廣這些機器。我認為 Roz 和 Kevin 提到的這些好處非常重要,而且我們看到這些好處也正在國際市場上體現。我還要補充一點,我們的合作夥伴非常喜歡這些機器,由於機器本身的外形較低,這讓他們能夠與客戶互動交流,從而提高了他們在客戶面前的曝光度。到目前為止,這些收益對公司在所有市場的業務都意義重大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的傑弗裡·伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Question relates to China. Clearly, it seems like you're back to solid mid-single-digit growth the past couple of quarters. I'm wondering, using 20/20 hindsight here, maybe what you think were the greatest challenges over the 4 quarter period or so where it seems like the comp trends were really challenged, whether you thought it was internal or macro or competition? What do you think kind of resurrected that business? And with that as a backdrop, again, having done mid-single digits the past 2 quarters, just wondering why you think the fiscal '20 guidance for 1% to 3% is appropriate when it seems like you're on track and running ahead of that level?

    問題與中國有關。顯然,過去幾季你們的業績似乎已經恢復到穩健的個位數中段成長。我現在以事後諸葛亮的視角來思考,您認為在過去四個季度左右的時間裡,公司業績趨勢受到真正挑戰的原因是什麼?您認為這些挑戰是來自內部、宏觀還是競爭?你認為是什麼讓這家公司起死回生?有鑑於此,過去兩個季度你們的成長率都只有個位數,我想知道,既然你們目前似乎正按計畫推進甚至超過了目標水平,為什麼你們認為 2020 財年 1% 到 3% 的成長率預期是合適的呢?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Jeffrey. John, why don't you...

    謝謝你,傑弗裡。約翰,你為什麼不…

  • John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

    John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

  • Yes. I think, Jeffrey, this -- what we're seeing in China is a direct result of the digital footprint that we've been able to build there as well as the meaningful innovation that we're bringing products in Modern Mixology and then the innovation that we're doing around our store footprint. And digital, obviously is moving very fast. And for us, as Kevin highlighted in his comments, digital orders represent 10% of the business that we saw in the quarter, 7% of that coming through delivery, which is an entirely new channel for us, and then 3% coming through Mobile Order & Pay. So digital has had a meaningful impact, a positive impact on the business. And just beyond the comp performance, we talk a lot about the acceleration of the store footprint. And we had record new stores opened in the quarter. We continue to see very strong economic returns. We continue to see very strong revenue growth of 18% in the quarter. Majority of that is driven by new stores. And then new customers and existing customers frequently entering our stores, total transactions in the market grew at solid double digit for another quarter, which is great results by the team. So feel very confident about our position in China and the work that the team is doing there.

    是的。傑弗裡,我認為——我們在中國看到的這一切,是我們能夠在那裡建立的數位足蹟的直接結果,也是我們在現代調酒領域帶來的有意義的創新,以及我們在門市佈局方面所做的創新的結果。顯然,數位化發展速度非常快。正如凱文在他的評論中所強調的那樣,對我們來說,數位訂單占我們本季業務的 10%,其中 7% 來自送貨上門(這對我們來說是一個全新的管道),還有 3% 來自行動訂購和付款。因此,數位化對企業產生了意義深遠的正面影響。除了同店銷售業績之外,我們也常談到門市擴張速度的加速。本季我們新開店的數量也創下了紀錄。我們持續看到非常強勁的經濟回報。本季營收持續保持強勁成長,增幅達 18%。其中大部分是由新店開張推動的。隨著新舊顧客頻繁光顧我們的門市,市場總交易量連續第二季保持兩位數的穩健成長,這是團隊取得的優異成績。因此,我對我們在中國的地位以及團隊在那裡所做的工作非常有信心。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Pat, why don't you take the second question around that, the Growth at Scale, long-term Growth at Scale growth model, and specifically, the way we think about our comp guidance in China.

    Pat,你來回答第二個問題,即規模化成長、長期規模成長模式,特別是我們如何看待我們在中國的同業表現預期。

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • Absolutely. Jeff, we are very pleased with our overall momentum that we're seeing in our business. But it's premature to revise the ongoing long-term guidance that we provided at our 2018 Investor Day. Our policy is to guide conservatively, communicating expected outcomes that we have a high degree of confidence we can deliver. It's the predictable sustainable growth that Kevin referenced earlier. Specifically in relation to China, the market dynamics there that are impacting our comp are unchanged from where they were a year ago. We are continuing to open new units at an accelerated pace. And of course, that puts pressure on existing units through sales transfer. We're also continuing to see a slower overall growth rate in the economy. And we're seeing a more intense level of competition, I would say in part because of the success of that we've enjoyed and the opportunity we've highlighted in the specialty retail coffee category. So when you take all of those together, we believe that it is prudent to guide to comp growth in China in the range of 1% to 3%, again, consistent with our ongoing model. We're delighted with the performance of the business this past year, but it's -- and we certainly are optimistic about our ability to sustain strong performance into fiscal 2020. But we believe it's prudent to reaffirm our guidance of 1% to 3%.

    絕對地。傑夫,我們對公司目前的整體發展動能非常滿意。但現在修改我們在 2018 年投資者日上提供的長期業績指引還為時過早。我們的政策是採取保守的指導方針,溝通我們有高度信心能夠實現的預期結果。這就是凱文之前提到的可預測的可持續成長。具體到中國市場,影響我們公司的市場動態與一年前相比沒有變化。我們正以更快的速度繼續開設新店。當然,這會透過銷售轉移給現有單位帶來壓力。我們也看到經濟整體成長速度持續放緩。我們看到競爭更加激烈,我認為部分原因是由於我們的成功以及我們在特色零售咖啡領域展現的機會。因此,綜合考慮所有這些因素,我們認為謹慎的做法是將中國市場的同業成長預期控制在 1% 到 3% 的範圍內,這與我們目前的模式是一致的。我們對公司過去一年的業績感到非常滿意,而且我們當然對在 2020 財年保持強勁業績的能力充滿信心。但我們認為,重申我們1%至3%的成長預期是審慎之舉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Sara Senatore with AllianceBernstein.

    你的下一個問題來自 AllianceBernstein 的 Sara Senatore。

  • Sara Harkavy Senatore - Senior Research Analyst

    Sara Harkavy Senatore - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a bit about some of the investments you've talked about making, whether it's in the Americas or in China perhaps. Because with such good comps, you talked about a little bit of the offset and the headwinds from some of these investments. So in the Americas, when I look at the operating -- store operating expenses, it looks like it's grown a bit faster than top line. Should we expect that to be the case going forward, which is to say this year was more like a step up in some of the investments you are making in your partners? Or should we just expect that going forward in order to sustain the kind of service levels and customer and partner engagement you have, you're going to probably need to continue to invest at this pace? And then with respect to China, if you could just talk about investments there and maybe even the product mix you talked about as being unfavorable. Is it value? Or is it just food or other things that are going on? Just some of the margin headwinds specifically, please?

    我想問您之前提到的一些投資項目,無論是在美洲還是在中國。因為有如此好的可比較案例,您談到了一些抵銷因素和這些投資帶來的不利影響。所以在美洲,當我查看營運費用(門市營運費用)時,發現其成長速度似乎比營收成長速度略快。我們是否可以預期未來也會如此,也就是說,今年你們對合作夥伴的一些投資更像是邁出了重要一步?或者我們應該預期,為了維持您目前的服務水準以及客戶和合作夥伴的參與度,您可能需要繼續以這樣的速度進行投資?至於中國,如果您能談談那裡的投資,甚至是您提到的不利的產品組合,那就太好了。它有價值嗎?或僅僅是食物或其他方面的事情?請具體列舉一些不利因素?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Pat, why don't I let you take that with Sara, and then we'll see if Roz and John need to add to it. But why don't you go ahead and lead?

    帕特,不如讓你和薩拉一起帶走,然後我們再看看羅茲和約翰是否需要添加東西。但為什麼不挺身而出,承擔領導的責任?

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • Okay. Thank you, Kevin. Sara, what I'd like to do first is maybe just step -- take a step back and talk about Q4 in total. In my prepared or marks, I talked about consolidated margin across all of fiscal 19. I'd like to focus more specifically on Q4 here because the dynamics were a bit different. So on a reported basis, our non-GAAP operating margin of 17.2% represented a 90 basis point decline compared to Q4 of last year. But what I would highlight is that embedded in that is a 70 basis point impact from our leadership conference as well as a 30 basis point impact from streamline-driven activities. So when you exclude those, our non-GAAP operating margin actually improved 20 basis points. Now I think your point, admittedly, a 20 basis point margin improvement seems very modest in the context of a 5% global sales comp for the quarter, particularly in relation to other quarters. So what I'd like to do is highlight what was unique to Q4, including recent trends impacting our flow-through, which primarily relates to 2 margin drivers within our Americas segment.

    好的。謝謝你,凱文。薩拉,我首先想做的或許是退一步──退一步,全面談談第四季的狀況。在我準備的成績單中,我談到了 2019 財年的整體利潤率。我想重點談談第四季度,因為當時的情況略有不同。因此,以報告資料計算,我們的非GAAP營業利潤率為17.2%,比去年第四季下降了90個基點。但我想強調的是,其中包含了我們領導力會議帶來的 70 個基點的影響,以及精簡流程活動帶來的 30 個基點的影響。因此,如果排除這些因素,我們的非GAAP營業利潤率實際上提高了20個基點。現在我同意你的觀點,誠然,在季度全球銷售額增長 5% 的情況下,20 個基點的利潤率提升似乎非常有限,尤其與其他季度相比更是如此。因此,我想重點介紹第四季度的獨特之處,包括影響我們利潤傳遞的近期趨勢,這主要與我們美洲業務板塊的兩個利潤驅動因素有關。

  • The first driver relates to the investments we're making to sustain long-term growth, exactly to your point. Along with the tax reform-funded investments in partner wages and benefits that we initiated in fiscal '18, we invested in additional labor hours in Q4 to build on our positive sales momentum, drive higher levels of customer connection and explore opportunities to unlock capacity in stores that we believe are best positioned to capture incremental sales at peak. This effort tested the upper limits of investment potential to determine where the future payback could be greatest in terms of incremental sales. This investment was not intended to completely payback during the quarter. However, it provided us, and this was our goal, with a substantial amount of data. And we're leveraging these insights to optimize our labor deployment going forward. This is the artificial intelligence and machine learning that Kevin referred to earlier. So in addition to those labor hours, we also invested in store-level equipment, as Roz mentioned, to support new product platforms like Nitro Cold Brew and to improve our operating efficiency. So that's the first driver is really in the area of investment. The second driver relates to inflationary pressures in wages and benefits as well as occupancy expense. Now consistent with our discussion in Q3, we are seeing margin pressure from continued increases in statutory minimum wages coupled with inflationary increases in rent; culinary, maintenance and real estate taxes. All that said, we do expect modest margin expansion in fiscal '20, as we've guided, as we continue to balance our investments with expected benefits from sales leverage and ongoing cost savings initiatives, notably in our supply chain.

    第一個驅動因素與我們為維持長期成長而進行的投資有關,正如您所說。除了我們在 2018 財年啟動的由稅收改革資金資助的對合夥人工資和福利的投資外,我們還在第四季度增加了工時,以鞏固我們積極的銷售勢頭,提高客戶聯繫水平,並探索釋放我們認為最有能力在銷售高峰期獲得增量銷售額的門店產能的機會。這項工作旨在測試投資潛力的上限,以確定在增量銷售方面未來回報最大的領域。這項投資並非旨在本季度內完全收回成本。然而,它為我們提供了(這也是我們的目標)大量數據。我們將利用這些見解來優化我們未來的勞動力部署。這就是凱文之前提到的人工智慧和機器學習。因此,除了這些工時之外,正如 Roz 所提到的,我們還投資了門市級的設備,以支援像氮氣冷萃咖啡這樣的新產品平台,並提高我們的營運效率。所以,第一個驅動因素其實在於投資領域。第二個驅動因素與薪資和福利以及住房成本的通膨壓力有關。現在,正如我們在第三季度討論的那樣,我們看到,法定最低工資的持續上漲,加上租金、餐飲稅、維護稅和房地產稅的通膨上漲,給利潤率帶來了壓力。綜上所述,我們預計 2020 財年利潤率將如我們所預期的那樣小幅增長,因為我們將繼續平衡投資與銷售槓桿和持續成本節約措施(尤其是在供應鏈方面)帶來的預期收益。

  • Now I'd also like to take a minute or 2 to talk about China because of the dynamics there are slightly different. We do expect to continue to make investments there in order to sustain strong comp growth even as we have accelerated our pace of development. But one thing that is slightly different is product mix. Product mix in the last year -- and we foresee this continuing into fiscal '20, is a bit of a headwind in China. And one of the drivers of that is the growth in our delivery sales mix. As we've discussed before, delivery transactions are, on the margin, dilutive to our total margin. However, they are highly incremental. So even while diluting our margin percentage, they grow total profit dollars. And that is different from what we are seeing in our U.S. where delivery is in the very early stages and growing more immodesty. So that is probably the key difference between China and the U.S. But what is consistent across both and is an important part of our strategy going forward, is continuing to make those strategic investments in our business that strengthen key points of competitive difference and help us to sustain top line growth for the long term. But it does come at the expense of what would otherwise be much stronger margin expansion on the back of the consistent comp growth that we're expecting going forward.

    現在我還想花一兩分鐘談談中國,因為那裡的情況略有不同。即使我們加快了發展步伐,我們仍將繼續在那裡進行投資,以維持強勁的同業成長。但有一點略有不同,那就是產品組合。過去一年的產品組合——我們預計這種情況會持續到 2020 財年——對中國市場來說是一個不利因素。其中一個驅動因素是我們外送銷售組合的成長。正如我們之前討論過的,從邊際上看,交貨交易會稀釋我們的總利潤。然而,它們的增量非常大。因此,即使降低了我們的利潤率,他們的總利潤也增加了。這與我們在美國的現狀截然不同,在美國,送貨上門還處於非常早期的階段,而且發展越來越不成熟。所以這可能是中國和美國之間的關鍵差異。但兩國共有的一點,也是我們未來策略的重要組成部分,就是繼續對我們的業務進行策略性投資,以加強關鍵的競爭優勢,並幫助我們長期維持營收成長。但這確實會以犧牲原本可以更強勁的利潤率擴張為代價,而我們預期未來同店銷售額將持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

    你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Question on the key drivers between the U.S. and China. Even as I listened to this call, it sounds like there is an interesting contrast where China's more of a digital flywheel story with that 45% growth in rewards, and you had that big jump up in digital order partly fueled by delivery. In the U.S., you've had that mid-teens growth in rewards users. But all the while, this year, you've been ramping up as your cold beverage growth seems to be ramping. So I wanted to ask you, do you agree with that characterization in terms of the top drivers in each market? And how do you think those will play out in fiscal '20?

    關於中美關係關鍵驅動因素的問題。即使我聽著這次電話會議,聽起來也存在一個有趣的對比:中國更像是一個數位化飛輪的故事,獎勵增加了 45%,而你們的數位訂單大幅成長,部分原因是配送的推動。在美國,獎勵用戶數量已經實現了十幾個百分點的成長。但同時,今年你的冷飲業務似乎也在加速成長,你也一直在加大投入。所以我想問您,您是否同意這種對各個市場主要驅動因素的描述?你認為這些因素在 2020 財年會如何發展?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Let me just frame kind of my thinking at a high level, David, and then I'll hand over to Roz and John to comment specifically on U.S. and China. I do think that while we're focused on the same key things, to create a great experience in our stores, to drive beverage innovation that's relevant to our customers and to grow digital customer relationships, the 2 markets are very different. Clearly, in China, this past year, we've seen a significant step forward in our digital customer relationships. A lot of that driven with our China digital partnership with Alibaba, we introduced a spend-based rewards program in December. We launched the ability for mobile order for pickup. We launched Starbucks Delivers. And in China, what you see is the consumer base in China is much more digitally savvy than any other market in the world. You just look at the percent of tender that's paid on the mobile app with Alipay or WeChat Pay. You look at the numbers scenarios in China that are digital mobile scenarios. And so the work that Belinda and Leo and our great China leadership team did this year in many ways was anchored around taking a big step forward in the digital flywheel. And that's where -- a year ago we didn't have mobile ordering for pickup or delivery. Now 10% of our sales mix is coming from that, with 7 points from Starbucks Delivers and 3 for mobile order for pickup.

    是的。大衛,我先從宏觀層面闡述我的想法,然後我會把發言權交給羅茲和約翰,讓他們具體談談美國和中國的問題。我認為,雖然我們都專注於相同的關鍵事項,即在我們的門市創造良好的體驗,推動與顧客相關的飲料創新,以及發展數位化客戶關係,但這兩個市場卻截然不同。顯然,在過去一年裡,我們在中國的數位客戶關係方面取得了顯著進步。這很大程度上得益於我們與阿里巴巴在中國的數位化合作,我們在 12 月推出了基於消費的獎勵計劃。我們推出了手機下單自提服務。我們推出了星巴克外送服務。在中國,你會發現中國的消費者群體比世界上任何其他市場的消費者都更精通數位科技。你只需查看透過手機應用程式使用支付寶或微信支付支付的款項百分比。你看看中國的數位移動場景數量。因此,貝琳達、利奧和我們優秀的中國領導團隊今年所做的工作,在許多方面都是圍繞著在數位化飛輪上邁出一大步而展開的。而就在一年前,我們還沒有手機下單自取或送貨服務。現在,我們銷售額的 10% 來自此,其中 7% 來自星巴克外送,3% 來自手機下單自取。

  • In the U.S., I think in that particular market, we've had digital flywheel and the active rewards member growth for several years now. And I think in the U.S., a lot of this was continuing to extend and accelerate that. But I think more importantly, the work that's gone into creating -- elevating the customer experience in our stores and really sharpening our focus on the beverage innovation, while at the same time, expanding digital customer relationships has helped. I don't -- delivery, Starbucks Delivers in the U.S. still is very small. It's less than 1% of our sales mix. And I think part of that is because the cost dynamics are different in China versus the U.S. And I think the Chinese consumer is much more advanced in these digital scenarios than in the U.S. But I think we're going to continue to watch and see how that evolves in the U.S.

    在美國,我認為在這個特定的市場,我們已經實現了數位飛輪效應,活躍會員的獎勵成長已經持續了好幾年。我認為在美國,很多這樣的事情都在不斷延長和加速發展。但我認為更重要的是,我們投入了大量精力來提升門市的客戶體驗,並真正專注於飲料創新,同時拓展數位化客戶關係,這些都起到了幫助作用。我不提供外送服務——星巴克在美國的外送規模仍然很小。它在我們銷售額中所佔比例不到1%。我認為部分原因是中美兩國的成本結構不同。而且我認為中國消費者在這些數位化場景方面比美國消費者成熟得多。但我認為我們將繼續觀察這種情況在美國的發展。

  • Let me hand over to -- so I guess the net is, David, I think we do have 2 very different markets with the consumer behavior and the state of evolution of Starbucks. And our capabilities in those markets continues to evolve in a way that's relevant to the customer mix in each of those 2 markets. Roz, why don't you add the things you think are important on the U.S. side? And then John, why don't you do the same on China?

    讓我把麥克風交給——所以我想總結一下,David,我認為我們確實有兩個非常不同的市場,它們的消費者行為和星巴克的發展現狀截然不同。我們在這些市場的能力也在不斷發展,以適應這兩個市場各自的客戶群。羅茲,為什麼不補充一些你認為美國方面比較重要的事情呢?那麼約翰,你為什麼不也對中國做同樣的事情呢?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Sure. I'll just add a few things here just to highlight that we're still seeing growth in our digital flywheel. Just in this quarter alone, our loyalty programs contributed nearly 2 points of comp, and that's making up about 42% of our tender right now. And typically, in the fourth quarter where we usually see retraction, we actually saw active member growth of about 15% year-over-year, approaching almost 18 million members. And then the new Starbucks Rewards, which we're calling Starbucks Rewards 4.0, we're seeing good performance in our 90-day active consumers. And it's in line with our expectation. So we're still seeing improvement in growth in our relationships and our digital platforms. And we'll continue to see that as we get into fiscal year '20.

    當然。我在這裡補充幾點,是為了強調我們的數位化飛輪仍在持續成長。光是本季度,我們的會員忠誠計畫就貢獻了近 2 個積分,目前約占我們交易額的 42%。通常情況下,在第四季度我們會看到會員數量下降,但實際上,我們的活躍會員數量比去年同期增長了約 15%,接近 1800 萬會員。此外,我們稱之為「星巴克獎勵計劃 4.0」的新星巴克獎勵計劃,在 90 天活躍消費者中表現良好。這符合我們的預期。因此,我們仍然看到我們在客戶關係和數位平台方面的成長有所改善。進入 2020 財年,我們將繼續看到這種情況。

  • John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

    John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

  • Yes. And David, from a China standpoint, I agree with what Kevin's comments were around the Chinese consumer and their digital capability and the savvy that they have. Just to put that into context, you've seen in our report our reported earnings the growth of the Starbucks Rewards program. So we up-leveled that December. We now have crossed the 10 million Starbucks Rewards members in China. We grew that 45% year-over-year. And our total member base is now in China sitting at 32.5 million, which is up 66% over a year ago. So really, just strong digital engagement from the customers. When you drill down a little bit deeper into MOP, we've expanded MOP at China speed. We're now at more than 2,600 stores across 15 cities, and we're continuing to expand that program. So we've got about 65% of our store base covered. We're seeing a very strong healthy repeat on purchases, where -- which is enabling us to bring new users into the Starbucks Rewards program and penetrate that more deeply. And then you translate that into the new channel of delivery. We're seeing good success in delivery. We stand out over 3,000 stores in 100 cities. We now cover 80% of our store base. As we said, 7% of the sales mix, we're seeing a higher ticket through delivery and stronger food attach. And we're seeing morning and lunch daypart increasing. So very optimistic about that.

    是的。大衛,從中國的角度來看,我同意凱文關於中國消費者及其數位能力和精明程度的評論。為了更好地理解這一點,您已經在我們的報告中看到了我們公佈的收益以及星巴克獎勵計劃的成長。所以我們在12月進行了升級。星巴克在中國的會員人數已經突破1000萬人。我們實現了同比增長 45%。目前,我們在中國的總會員人數已達 3,250 萬,比一年前增加了 66%。所以說,關鍵在於客戶強大的數位參與。當你更深入地了解 MOP 時,你會發現我們已經以中國的速度擴展了 MOP。目前,我們在 15 個城市的 2600 多家門市開展業務,並且正在繼續擴大該計劃。所以我們已經覆蓋了大約 65% 的門市。我們看到顧客的重複購買率非常高,這使我們能夠吸引新用戶加入星巴克獎勵計劃,並更深入地滲透到該計劃中。然後,你將其轉化為新的交付管道。我們在配送方面取得了良好的效果。我們在100個城市的3000多家門市中脫穎而出。目前我們已覆蓋80%的門市。正如我們所說,外帶銷售額佔總銷售額的 7%,我們看到外帶訂單金額更高,食品附加價值也更強。我們看到上午和午餐時段的客流量都在增加。對此我非常樂觀。

  • And then just don't lose sight of the need for us to continue to gain first-mover advantage on store growth, and we're going to continue to focus on accelerating our store growth. Clearly, the returns that we see in terms of new stores indicate that there is a lot of opportunity in that area. And as we continue to cultivate the coffee consumption in China, which now sits at less than 4 cups per year per person compared to 300 in the U.S., this is a huge opportunity. And then just one other thing, and then I'll stop, is the Global Coffee Alliance. And as Kevin shared, we spent the last few days in China. We're here in Japan today talking about the opportunity that the Global Coffee Alliance has for us in China. And we've announced that in August. We're rolling out across for platforms. We have over 20 products that we've launched. We walked the aisle in Shanghai. The Starbucks presence is absolutely stunning. And then foodservice is going to be a big opportunity as we focus in on office, as we focus in on universities and as we focus in on the 5-star hotels. So we're very optimistic about China.

    同時,我們也不能忽視在門市成長方面繼續保持先發優勢的重要性,我們將繼續專注於加速門市成長。顯然,從新店數量來看,我們看到的回報表明該領域有很多機會。隨著我們繼續培養中國咖啡消費,目前中國每人每年咖啡消費量不到 4 杯,而美國則為 300 杯,這是一個巨大的機會。最後還有一件事,說完我就不說了,那就是全球咖啡聯盟。正如凱文所說,我們最近幾天都在中國。今天我們來到日本,討論全球咖啡聯盟為我們在中國帶來的機會。我們在八月宣布了這一點。我們正在各個平台上推廣。我們已經推出了20多款產品。我們在上海舉行了婚禮。星巴克的進駐效果簡直令人驚艷。隨著我們把目光轉向辦公室、大學和五星級飯店,餐飲服務將成為一個巨大的機會。所以我們對中國非常樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰‧伊凡科。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • First, I'm actually just going to stay on the Global Coffee Alliance. I think what you said, there's a 7% to 8% reduction in revenue relative to some things that happened in '19. I was just hoping you could talk about that. And just the comments that we're being made on accretion after buyback just seem to be interesting that they were made at all. Just overall from a profitability perspective as we think about that segment, was fiscal '20 in line with relative to what you originally thought? And if not, why? And then I'll have a couple follow-ups.

    首先,我其實打算繼續留在全球咖啡聯盟。我認為你所說的沒錯,與 2019 年發生的一些事情相比,收入下降了 7% 到 8%。我只是希望你能談談這件事。而關於回購後增值的評論本身就很有意思,這些評論竟然真的出現了。從整體獲利能力的角度來看,2020財年該業務部門的表現是否符合您最初的預期?如果不是,為什麼?然後我也會提出幾個後續問題。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Pat, why don't you take that if you could?

    帕特,如果你能的話,為什麼不拿走它呢?

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • Certainly. So John, what I'd like to highlight is what is driving the difference between our total revenue growth guidance for fiscal '20 and our long-term growth model. So we've guided to a range of 6% to 8%. Our long-term growth model is 7% to 9%. That 1 percentage point difference is attributable to 2 things: one is the sale of our ownership interest in Thailand in fiscal '19 and how that extends then with its impact into fiscal '20. But then the second is, and I think this is more directly to your question, what we're expecting by way of a revenue decline in Channel Development from fiscal '19 into fiscal '20 even though we had lapped the onset of the Global Coffee Alliance. There were some temporary business transition activities in fiscal '19 that are nonrecurring, and they tend to mask the growth profile of our Channel Development business for fiscal '20. And they relate primarily to lapping some elevated inventory sales to Nestlé in preparation for their direct fulfillment of customer orders in addition to what were some final sales of Tazo-branded products that fell into fiscal '19.

    當然。約翰,我想重點說明的是,是什麼導致了我們對 2020 財年總收入成長的預期與我們的長期成長模型之間的差異。因此,我們給出的指導範圍是 6% 到 8%。我們的長期成長模式是7%到9%。這 1 個百分點的差異可歸因於兩件事:一是我們在 2019 財年出售了在泰國的股權,以及這如何延續到 2020 財年並產生影響。但第二個問題是,我認為這更直接地回答了你的問題,那就是我們預計從 2019 財年到 2020 財年,通路開發收入將出現下降,儘管我們已經錯過了全球咖啡聯盟成立的時機。2019 財年有一些臨時性的業務轉型活動,這些活動不屬於經常性活動,而且往往會掩蓋我們 2020 財年通路開發業務的成長情況。這些銷售主要與向雀巢公司出售一些高額庫存有關,以便他們直接履行客戶訂單,此外還包括一些計入 2019 財年的 Tazo 品牌產品的最終銷售。

  • So when you normalize for these temporary transition items in Channel Development as well as for the ownership change in Thailand, we get back to a normalized total revenue growth rate of 7% to 9%. What I would like to highlight specifically in relation to Channel Development, given that we are guiding to an adjusted revenue growth rate of 4%, which is at the bottom end of our ongoing range of 4% to 6%, is that we would expect it to be 4% to 5% in the near term and then 5% to 6% longer term with what we expect by way of an accelerated pace of international market expansion. So really, what you see happening is a combination of things: number one, it's overlapping some unusual benefits that we realized in fiscal '19. But it's also the fact that the international market acceleration and how that impacts the shape of our revenue growth for the Channel Development segment particularly, we see happening further out into the future.

    因此,當我們對這些通路發展中的臨時過渡項目以及泰國的所有權變更進行調整後,我們得到的總收入成長率恢復到 7% 至 9%。關於通路發展,我想特別強調的是,鑑於我們預計調整後的收入增長率為 4%,處於我們持續預測範圍 4% 至 6% 的下限,我們預計短期內增長率將達到 4% 至 5%,長期來看將達到 5% 至 6%,這得益於我們預期國際市場擴張速度的加快。所以實際上,你看到的是多種因素的綜合作用:第一,它與我們在 2019 財年實現的一些不尋常的收益重疊了。但國際市場加速發展及其對我們通路開發部門收入成長格局的影響,我們認為還需要更長時間才能顯現。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • John, you want to just comment on the international market expansion on Global Coffee Alliance, kind of what we achieved in fiscal '19 and the outlook for fiscal '20?

    約翰,你想談談全球咖啡聯盟的國際市場擴張嗎?例如我們在 2019 財年所取得的成就以及 2020 財年的展望?

  • John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

    John Culver - Group President of International, Channel Development and Global Coffee & Tea

  • Yes. So we've had some great work that's happened between us and Nestlé as we rolled out this -- the Global Coffee Alliance. Clearly, the U.S. market is the most established business. We had a smaller business in Europe, but then the rest of the world was greenfield as it relates to CPG and foodservice channels. We now have products available in over 30 markets around the world. And as Kevin highlighted, we're on our way to having 50 markets up and running by the spring of 2020. We've got 28 SKUs that we've launched across 4 different platforms. Particularly the work that we've done with Nespresso is paying dividends. We're seeing very good strong growth and uptick for the Nespresso Starbucks-branded capsules. We're also seeing very good strong uptick with Dolce Gusto in the Dolce Gusto platform. So we're very optimistic about the single-serve opportunity that exists around the world, not just in the U.S.

    是的。因此,在我們與雀巢共同推出全球咖啡聯盟的過程中,我們取得了一些非常棒的成果。顯然,美國市場是最成熟的市場。我們在歐洲的業務規模較小,但就消費品和餐飲服務通路而言,世界其他地區都是一片空白。我們的產品目前已銷往全球30多個市場。正如凱文所強調的,我們正朝著2020年春季之前建成並經營50個市場的目標邁進。我們已在 4 個不同的平台上推出了 28 個 SKU。尤其是我們與Nespresso的合作,已經取得了豐碩的成果。我們看到Nespresso星巴克品牌膠囊咖啡的銷售出現了非常強勁的成長和上升。我們也看到 Dolce Gusto 平台上的 Dolce Gusto 產品銷售出現了非常強勁的成長。因此,我們對全球範圍內(不僅是美國)存在的單份包裝市場機會非常樂觀。

  • We did have a meaningful launch of creamers in the U.S., and we anticipate that -- taking that to other markets. We launched 4 flavors in August, and we earned about 10.4 billion impressions as we made that announcement. So there is a lot of consumer excitement about this and a lot of market excitement. And then we're going to continue to drive meaningful innovation within the Global Coffee Alliance. I think at the speed at which we've been able to create the product platforms, the speed at which we've been able to bring those into the markets, that is going to continue. And that's been a big piece of the discussions that we've been having here over the last 2.5 days with the Nestlé team, and we're both very optimistic about the opportunity going forward.

    我們在美國成功推出了奶精產品,我們預期——將這種模式推廣到其他市場。我們在 8 月推出了 4 種口味,發佈公告時獲得了約 104 億次曝光。因此,消費者對此感到非常興奮,市場也對此感到非常興奮。然後,我們將繼續在全球咖啡聯盟內推動有意義的創新。我認為,我們創建產品平台的速度,以及我們把這些平台推向市場的速度,將會持續下去。這也是過去兩天半我們與雀巢團隊討論的重點之一,我們雙方都對未來的機會感到非常樂觀。

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • And John, there was a second part to your question in relation, I believe, to the EPS accretion from the Global Coffee Alliance. So just to reaffirm that Global Coffee Alliance became EPS accretive in fiscal '19, which is faster than we had originally expected when we completed the transaction. And we continue to expect -- even with that revenue decline that I mentioned, we continue to expect that it will remain EPS accretive on a cumulative basis. And that includes the beneficial impact of the share repurchases that were funded with the after-tax upfront cash payment from Nestlé.

    約翰,你的問題還有第二部分,我認為是關於全球咖啡聯盟帶來的每股盈餘成長。因此,再次確認一下,Global Coffee Alliance 在 2019 財年實現了每股收益成長,這比我們完成交易時最初預期的速度還要快。我們仍然預期——即使出現了我提到的收入下降,我們仍然預期它將繼續累積提升每股收益。這其中包括用雀巢公司稅後預付現金支付的資金進行股票回購所帶來的正面影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

    你的下一個問題來自莎朗·扎克菲亞和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

    Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

  • I actually had 2 questions, but one's pretty quick. I know in the past you've talked about the digital information you have now on people who are not yet rewards members, and I think you've given that number in the past. I'm just curious if that continues to grow in the U.S. And then secondarily, on the margin outlook, I guess I'm a little confused on the Americas particularly. I know the margin there has stabilized. So you had some benefit from the change in the gift card breakage. So I'm just wondering whether or not we should expect Americas margins to stabilize or not in 2020, as well?

    我其實有兩個問題,但其中一個很容易問。我知道您過去曾談到您現在掌握的關於尚未成為獎勵會員的人的數字信息,而且我認為您過去也給出過這個數字。我只是好奇這種情況在美國是否會持續成長。其次,關於邊際前景,我對美洲的情況尤其感到有些困惑。我知道那裡的利潤率已經穩定下來了。所以,禮品卡破損率的改變為你帶來了一些好處。所以我想知道,我們是否應該預期美洲的利潤率在2020年也會趨於穩定?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Sharon. Roz, why don't you take the first question on the digitally registered customers that Sharon asked. And then Pat, why don't you take the margin question, if you could? So Roz?

    謝謝你,莎倫。Roz,你先來回答Sharon提出的第一個關於數位註冊客戶的問題吧。那麼,帕特,如果你可以的話,為什麼不回答一下利潤率問題呢?所以,羅茲?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Thank you. Just on those digitally registered customers that we've seen in this recent quarters, first of all, we've seen the redemption shifted to new tiers, and that's not impacting our overall Starbucks Rewards growth. The customers we've seen, they've embraced the choices provided by these multiple redemption tiers. The 150-Star tier continues to see the majority of the redemption volume. And we've also seen that our low-frequency members that you've heard us referred to as our occasional customers, they're driving a more significant portion of the active members.

    謝謝。就我們最近幾季看到的那些數位化註冊的顧客而言,首先,我們看到積分兌換轉移到了新的等級,但這並沒有影響我們整體的星巴克獎勵成長。我們看到的客戶都欣然接受了這些多級兌換所提供的選擇。150 星等級的兌換量仍佔絕大多數。我們也發現,我們那些不常光顧的會員(你們可能聽說過我們稱他們為偶爾光顧的客戶)正在為活躍會員貢獻更大比例的份額。

  • So right now, we're seeing good movement in that space. And again, our Starbucks Rewards customers, we've seen acceleration there in that member growth of about 15% to roughly 18 million members. Actually, that number is 17.6 million. The other thing I'll mention is that we continue to grow at peak, in our morning peak time frame, and we're seeing actually growth across all dayparts. That occasional customer that we're introducing to Starbucks Rewards is coming in, in the afternoons. And so we probably are seeing a lift through all the dayparts. And so that is the work that's happening by adding the new multitiers to the program.

    所以目前我們看到該領域出現了良好的發展動能。此外,我們的星巴克獎勵計畫會員數量也出現了加速成長,成長了約 15%,達到約 1,800 萬會員。實際上,這個數字是1760萬。我還要提一下,我們在早高峰時段的客流量持續增長,而且我們看到全天各個時段的客流量都在增長。我們正在向一些偶爾光顧星巴克獎勵計劃的顧客介紹,這些顧客通常在下午來。因此,我們可能會看到全天各時段的房價都有上漲。因此,透過在程式中添加新的多層級結構,我們正在進行這項工作。

  • Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

    Patrick J. Grismer - CFO & Executive VP

  • And then Sharon, with respect to your question on margin, what I first want to clarify is that we are expecting modest margin improvement across each one of our segments in fiscal '20. Specifically on the Americas, you asked about breakage and then just Americas margin generally. So I first want to clarify what's happening with breakage. As a reminder, we adopted this new revenue recognition accounting standard starting in first quarter fiscal 2019. And one that impact of that was to reclassify stored value card breakage from the interest in other line below operating income and outside of segment results to the revenue line at the segment level. It's mostly a matter of P&L geography that does not have an impact on EPS.

    Sharon,關於你提出的利潤率問題,我首先要澄清的是,我們預計在 2020 財年,我們各個業務部門的利潤率都會有小幅改善。具體來說,關於美洲地區,您詢問了破損率以及美洲地區的整體利潤率。首先,我想澄清一下破損到底是怎麼回事。再次提醒,我們從 2019 財年第一季開始採用這項新的收入確認會計準則。其中一個影響是將儲值卡損壞從營業收入下的其他專案利息和分部績效之外重新歸類到分部層級的收入項目。這主要是損益表地域性問題,對每股盈餘沒有影響。

  • On a full year basis, the change in accounting did have a beneficial impact to non-GAAP operating margin of about 40 basis points in fiscal '19, and the greatest impact was in Q2 due to seasonality. But I also want to clarify that breakage is not accounted for in comp sales. It's just another revenue driver after new stores and comp sales. We will lap this impact in the first quarter of fiscal 2020, at which point the benefit to our revenue and operating margin will already be embedded in our base. So breakage will not be a driver of margin performance in fiscal 2020.

    從全年來看,會計準則的改變確實對 2019 財年的非 GAAP 營業利潤率產生了約 40 個基點的有利影響,其中第二季受季節性因素影響最大。但我還想澄清一下,同店銷售額中並未考慮破損狀況。這只是繼新店開張和同店銷售之後的另一個收入驅動因素。我們將在 2020 財年第一季消除這種影響,屆時,營收和營業利潤率的提升將反映在我們的基數中。因此,破損率不會成為 2020 財年利潤率表現的驅動因素。

  • We do expect in the Americas, like the other segments, that there will be a modest margin expansion in fiscal '20. And that's a function of the sales leverage that we expect from the comp growth that we're guiding in the range of 3% to 4% as well as the significant cost savings that we're expecting, particularly in our supply chain. And that, that will be sufficient to offset the investments that we're looking to make in fiscal '20 to continue to drive the top line. I will also say that the Americas margin will benefit in '20 -- fiscal '20 from the lap of the leadership conference in the fourth quarter. So as you think about the shape of our margin performance across the year, what that means is it will probably be flattish in Q1. We'll see that modest improvement in Q2 and Q3, and then we will see a very robust margin improvement in the fourth quarter.

    我們預計,與其它地區一樣,美洲地區的利潤率在 2020 財年將出現小幅成長。這取決於我們預期同店銷售額成長帶來的銷售槓桿效應(我們預期同店銷售額成長幅度在 3% 到 4% 之間),以及我們預期的顯著成本節約,尤其是在供應鏈方面。而這足以抵銷我們在 2020 財年為持續推動營收成長而計劃進行的投資。我還要說,由於第四季度領導層會議的召開,美洲地區的利潤率將在 2020 財年受益。因此,在考慮我們全年的利潤率表現時,這意味著第一季的利潤率可能會比較穩定。我們將在第二季和第三季看到這種小幅改善,然後在第四季看到利潤率的大幅提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Matthew DiFrisco with Guggenheim Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自古根漢證券的馬修·迪弗里斯科。

  • Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst

    Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst

  • I just have a follow-up a little bit there on Sharon's also. With respect to the incremental of that 17.6 million and the 15% growth, can you dig into that and see sort of, are you seeing a little bit of a broader demographic may be coming on board than you had in the past? I know there were some theories out there in the last couple of years when it did decelerate that perhaps the brand was hitting its max as a premium position brand. I'm curious as far as just your overall value perception. I know you may be seeing also the tier -- the change to a tiered rewards program, has it opened you up maybe to a broader demographic that maybe you're resonating better as a value and you're expanding the tent to include more people above maybe lower incomes than you had in the past?

    我這裡還有一些關於莎倫的事情需要補充說明。關於新增的 1,760 萬用戶和 15% 的成長,您能否深入分析一下,看看是否與過去相比,使用者群體更加多元化?我知道在過去幾年裡,當該品牌的成長速度放緩時,曾有一些理論認為,該品牌作為高端品牌可能已經達到了其發展極限。我很好奇你對整體價值的看法。我知道您可能也注意到了分級制度——也就是分級獎勵計劃的改變。這種改變是否讓您接觸到了更廣泛的人群,讓您能夠更好地表達自己的價值,並擴大了服務範圍,納入了更多收入水平高於或低於以往的人群?

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Roz, why don't you go ahead and take that for us?

    羅茲,為什麼不替我們去拿呢?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Okay. Great. Thanks, Kevin. So what we are seeing is that we are seeing a broader array of customers that are attracted to Starbucks at the moment. In terms of qualifying their demographic to understand if they're value or non-value, we don't have the kind of data at this point. But I will tell you that we know that they are attracted in the -- to the beverage program, less attracted to the food program. At this time, we are encouraged by the ticket that we're seeing with this customer and their attraction to things like Happy Hour and also to the time of day. And so as we learn more, we'll share that with you. But right now, we're encouraged that we are moving these customers to the Starbucks Rewards level. And we're pleased that we did add the other layers of redemption just so that we can expand the excitement of the Starbucks brand to a broader customer. So we'll come back to you with more information on that, but right now, we don't have the demographics on those customers.

    好的。偉大的。謝謝你,凱文。所以我們看到的是,目前星巴克吸引了更廣大的顧客群。就目前而言,我們還沒有能夠確定其人口統計特徵以了解其是否具有價值或不具有價值的數據。但我可以告訴你,我們知道他們更喜歡飲料項目,對食品項目的興趣則相對較小。目前,我們對這位顧客的購物體驗以及他們對歡樂時光和特定時段的熱愛感到鼓舞。因此,當我們了解更多資訊時,我們會與您分享。但目前,我們感到鼓舞的是,我們正在將這些顧客提升到星巴克獎勵計畫等級。我們很高興增加了其他層次的兌換方式,這樣我們就可以將星巴克品牌的魅力擴展到更廣泛的客戶群。所以我們會盡快向您提供更多相關信息,但目前我們還沒有這些客戶的人口統計。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Let me just add a comment on the strength of the Starbucks brand. Growth at Scale has really enabled us to really sharpen our focus on those things that we believe differentiate Starbucks from all other opportunities and all other experiences. So the focus that we've put on the customer experience in our stores, the focus we've put on beverage innovation, the focus we've put on digital customer relationships and the fact that we have executed against this with discipline has driven our customer connection scores to an all-time high. The brand is healthy and strong and growing. And so in many ways, our Growth at Scale agenda has really enabled us to put our energy behind the things that matter most and the things candidly that differentiate us from all others in the marketplace. And I think that is the significant reason why we're seeing transaction traffic growth, we're seeing comp growth and we're seeing momentum across all aspects of Starbucks. And that is helping us in many ways, both digitally. But it's also, more importantly, really amplified by the experience that our Starbucks partners who proudly wear the green apron create for our customers each and every day.

    我只想補充一點關於星巴克品牌實力的看法。規模化成長確實使我們能夠更加專注於那些我們認為能夠使星巴克區別於所有其他機會和體驗的因素。因此,我們重視門市的客戶體驗、重視飲料創新、重視數位化客戶關係,並且我們嚴格執行這些措施,這使得我們的客戶聯繫得分達到了歷史新高。該品牌發展勢頭良好,實力雄厚,並且正在不斷壯大。因此,從許多方面來看,我們的規模成長計畫確實使我們能夠將精力投入到最重要的事情上,以及坦白說,那些使我們與市場上所有其他公司區分開來的事情上。我認為這正是我們看到交易量成長、同店銷售成長以及星巴克各方面都呈現成長動能的重要原因。這在很多方面都對我們有幫助,包括數位化方面。但更重要的是,我們星巴克夥伴們每天自豪地穿著綠色圍裙,為顧客創造的體驗,也大大提升了這種體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The last question today comes from Dennis Geiger with UBS.

    今天最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的丹尼斯蓋格。

  • Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

    Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

  • Just wanted to quickly touch a bit more on some of those key drivers that you talked about in the U.S. And I guess specifically, as you kind of think about beverage, the in-store experience as well as digital looking ahead, just anything incremental you could say about that leverage pipeline. Obviously, Nitro is relatively new across the system, but about how you feel about that beverage pipeline looking ahead? How much incremental opportunity there is on the in-store experience? And I guess similarly with digital, a lot of commentary there. But just where you go from here, if you'd characterize winning and just the opportunity, that'd be great.

    我想快速地再談談您在美國提到的一些關鍵驅動因素。我想具體來說,當您考慮飲料、店內體驗以及展望未來時,您能否談談關於這個槓桿管道的任何增量資訊。顯然,Nitro在整個系統中還是相對較新的產品,但您對未來該飲料產品線有何看法?店內體驗還有多少提升空間?我想數字領域的情況也類似,有很多評論。但如果你用勝利和機會來形容你未來的發展方向,那就太好了。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • That's great. Roz, why don't you take that for us?

    那太棒了。羅茲,你為什麼不幫我們拿?

  • Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

    Rosalind Gates Brewer - COO, Group President of Americas & Director

  • Sure. There's a couple reasons why we feel confident about our future in what we've been doing with the beverage innovation, the work we've been doing with in-store experience and our digital engagement. First of all, behind these things, a lot of the work that we've done in-store is around the work that we did with the team works rollout in third quarter fiscal year '19. And so we'll benefit a lot from that in fiscal year '20. Then there is a significant work in progress around inventory routines and automation, the food prep test that we do, backroom optimization. And all of those items are fueling the work, as Kevin mentioned, around machine learning and our applications to fuel Deep Brew. So we feel confident about that work that's ongoing and that is already in process.

    當然。我們之所以對未來充滿信心,主要有兩個原因:一是我們在飲料創新方面所做的工作;二是我們在店內體驗方面所做的工作;三是我們在數位互動方面所做的工作。首先,在這些事情的背後,我們在店內所做的工作很多都是圍繞著我們在 2019 財年第三季團隊合作推廣工作的。因此,我們將在 2020 財年從中受益匪淺。此外,庫存管理流程和自動化、食品準備測試、後台優化等方面也正在進行大量工作。正如凱文所提到的那樣,所有這些因素都在推動機器學習以及我們為 Deep Brew 提供應用方面的工作。因此,我們對正在進行和已經開展的工作充滿信心。

  • In terms of beverage innovation, because we have been looking at not only beverage innovation but equipment, having Mastrena there is an opportunity, having Nitro there. We introduced Cold Foam last year. It's allowing us to create new beverage combinations that our customers are really responding to in addition to the growth in cold. So if you look at our sales in detail, cold, which is our Refreshers, our iced teas, our cold coffee and our Nitro Cold Brew, are all doing extremely well for us. And so that innovation will be ongoing.

    就飲料創新而言,因為我們不僅專注於飲料創新,還專注於設備創新,所以擁有 Mastrena 和 Nitro 是一個機會。我們去年推出了冷泡噴劑。這使我們能夠創造出新的飲料組合,我們的顧客對此反應熱烈,同時冷飲市場也在成長。所以,如果你仔細查看我們的銷售情況,你會發現冷飲,也就是我們的清爽飲品、冰茶、冷咖啡和氮冷萃咖啡,都賣得非常好。因此,創新將會持續下去。

  • And then from the point of the digital relationships, the more we learn about our customer base, the better we had been marketing to them. And so you will see our marketing become more personalized, and that will help with retention and driving frequency in our stores. So we feel like there is more to come in those 3 areas, so we'll continue on the pathway we those 3 important initiatives for us because there's still more to be done in those areas.

    從數位關係的角度來看,我們對客戶群了解越多,就越能更好地向他們進行行銷。因此,您會看到我們的行銷變得更加個人化,這將有助於提高客戶留存率並增加顧客到店消費的頻率。因此,我們覺得這三個領域還有更多發展空間,所以我們將繼續推動這三個對我們來說重要的舉措,因為這些領域還有更多工作要做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That was our last question today. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Johnson for closing remarks.

    這是我們今天最後一個問題。現在我將把電話交給凱文·約翰遜,請他作總結發言。

  • Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

    Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Hector. As we close today's call, I want you all to know how much we appreciate the support and the encouragement we've received from the investment community over this past year as we've undertaken significant efforts to streamline the company, sharpen our focus and drive improvements in operating performance. This would not be possible without the 400,000 talented Starbucks partners that I have the privilege to serve each and every day. Together, we look forward to a great year ahead and to sharing our results and our progress in future quarters. Thank you.

    謝謝你,赫克托。在今天的電話會議即將結束之際,我想讓大家知道,在過去一年裡,我們為精簡公司、明確重點、提高營運績效做出了巨大努力,感謝投資界給予我們的支持和鼓勵。如果沒有我每天有幸服務的 40 萬名才華橫溢的星巴克夥伴,這一切都不可能實現。我們共同期待未來一年取得輝煌成就,並將在未來幾季與大家分享我們的成果和進展。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes Starbucks Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

    星巴克咖啡公司2019財年第四季及全年電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。