使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon.
下午好。
My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today.
我叫 Rob,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Starbucks Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call.
在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加星巴克咖啡公司 2017 年第四季度和財年的收益電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Tom Shaw, Vice President, Investor Relations.
(操作員說明)我現在將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁湯姆肖。
Mr. Shaw, you may now begin your conference.
肖先生,您現在可以開始您的會議了。
Thomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results for fiscal 2017.
大家下午好,感謝今天加入我們討論我們 2017 財年第四季度和全年業績。
Today's discussion will be led by Kevin Johnson, President and CEO; and Scott Maw, CFO.
今天的討論將由總裁兼首席執行官 Kevin Johnson 主持;和首席財務官 Scott Maw。
For Q&A, we'll be joined by Ross Brewer, Group President Americas, and Chief Operating Officer; John Culver, Group President, International and Channels; Matt Ryan, Global Chief Strategy Officer; and dialing in from New York, Howard Schultz, Executive Chairman.
對於問答環節,美洲集團總裁兼首席運營官 Ross Brewer 將加入我們的行列;國際和渠道集團總裁 John Culver;全球首席戰略官 Matt Ryan;從紐約撥入執行主席霍華德舒爾茨。
This conference call will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements.
本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受各種風險和不確定因素的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異。
Any such statements should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements in our earnings release and risk factors discussions in our filings with the SEC, including our last annual report on Form 10-K.
任何此類聲明都應與我們的收益發布中的警示聲明和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險因素討論一起考慮,包括我們上一份 10-K 表格年度報告。
Starbucks assumes no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements or information.
星巴克不承擔更新任何這些前瞻性陳述或信息的義務。
Before handing the call over to Kevin, I'll take a moment to clarify that all references on today's call will be on a non-GAAP basis.
在將電話轉交給凱文之前,我會花點時間澄清一下,今天電話會議的所有參考資料都將基於非 GAAP 標準。
GAAP results in fiscal 2017 includes several items related to strategic actions the company is taking as it focuses on accelerating growth in high-returning businesses and streamlining its operations.
2017 財年的 GAAP 業績包括與公司正在採取的戰略行動相關的幾個項目,因為它專注於加速高回報業務的增長並簡化其運營。
These items include restructuring and impairment charges, transaction and integration costs, gains related to changes in ownership of international markets and other items.
這些項目包括重組和減值費用、交易和整合成本、與國際市場所有權變化相關的收益和其他項目。
These items are excluded from our non-GAAP results.
這些項目被排除在我們的非 GAAP 結果之外。
Additionally, please note that fiscal 2016 contained an extra week in the fourth quarter, which resulted in incremental revenue and income for both Q4 of fiscal 2016 and full year fiscal 2016.
此外,請注意,2016 財年第四季度多了一周,這導致 2016 財年第四季度和 2016 財年全年的收入和收入增加。
Our comparisons to fiscal 2016 results exclude the effect of this extra week.
我們與 2016 財年業績的比較排除了這額外一周的影響。
Please refer to our website at investor.starbucks.com to find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referenced in today's call with their corresponding GAAP measures.
請訪問我們的網站 investor.starbucks.com 以查找今天電話會議中引用的非 GAAP 財務指標與其相應的 GAAP 指標的對賬。
This conference call is being webcast, and an archive of the webcast will be available on our website as well.
本次電話會議正在進行網絡直播,網絡直播的存檔也將在我們的網站上提供。
I will now turn the call over to Kevin.
我現在將把電話轉給凱文。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Well, thank you, Tom, and welcome, everyone.
嗯,謝謝你,湯姆,歡迎大家。
Today, Starbucks Coffee Company reported another quarter and year of strong performance, with each of our business segments around the world contributing to record results.
今天,星巴克咖啡公司報告了又一個季度和年度的強勁表現,我們在全球的每個業務部門都創造了創紀錄的業績。
On today's call, I will provide highlights of Q4 and fiscal '17 and share our view of Starbucks' longer-term growth opportunity.
在今天的電話會議上,我將提供第四季度和 17 財年的亮點,並分享我們對星巴克長期增長機會的看法。
Scott will then take you through details of our operating and financial performance and updated guidance.
然後,斯科特將帶您了解我們的運營和財務業績的詳細信息以及更新的指南。
In fiscal '17, Starbucks delivered record revenues of $22.4 billion, a record 19.7% non-GAAP operating income margin and non-GAAP earnings per share growth of 11% over prior year.
在 17 財年,星巴克實現了創紀錄的 224 億美元收入,非 GAAP 營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 19.7%,非 GAAP 每股收益比上年增長 11%。
At the same time, we made significant investments to support the growth of our business and added over 2,200 net new stores to a total of now over 27,000 stores globally.
與此同時,我們進行了大量投資以支持我們的業務增長,淨增了 2,200 多家新店,目前全球門店總數超過 27,000 家。
China was a standout in fiscal '17, posting 7% comp growth, strong revenue growth and another year of record AUVs and strong profitability.
中國在 17 財年表現突出,實現了 7% 的複合增長率、強勁的收入增長以及又一年創紀錄的 AUV 和強勁的盈利能力。
We added over 550 net new stores in China in fiscal '17 and now have nearly 3,000 stores in 135 cities.
我們在 17 財年在中國淨增了 550 多家新店,目前在 135 個城市擁有近 3,000 家門店。
We capped fiscal '17 with a solid Q4, delivering 3% comp growth in the Americas and 3% globally and in the U.S. after adjusting for nearly 1 point of impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
我們以穩健的第四季度結束了 17 財年,在調整了颶風哈維和厄瑪的近 1 點影響後,美洲實現了 3% 的複合增長率,全球和美國實現了 3% 的複合增長率。
Millions of people, hundreds of communities and thousands of our Starbucks partners were impacted or displaced by devastating storms in Q4.
第四季度的毀滅性風暴影響了數百萬人、數百個社區和數千名星巴克合作夥伴或使他們流離失所。
Over 1,100 Starbucks stores were closed for extended periods.
超過 1,100 家星巴克門店長期關閉。
But the hurricane story is a human story, and I'm proud and appreciative of how our Starbucks partners responded to our customers and communities in distress.
但颶風的故事是一個人類的故事,我為我們的星巴克合作夥伴如何應對處於困境中的客戶和社區而感到自豪和感激。
Starbucks posted record, in many cases, industry-leading financial and operating results in both fiscal '16 and '17.
在許多情況下,星巴克在 16 財年和 17 財年都發布了創紀錄的行業領先財務和運營業績。
But balanced conversation of our performance over the past 2 years acknowledges that we have not consistently delivered against our long-term financial targets, prompting a review to ensure that our targets are aligned with our strategic plan and the current operating environment.
但是,對我們過去 2 年業績的平衡討論表明,我們並沒有始終如一地實現長期財務目標,這促使我們進行審查,以確保我們的目標與我們的戰略計劃和當前的運營環境保持一致。
By way of background, we last revised our long-term targets in 2010, and we are very proud of our performance since then, more than doubling revenues, tripling earnings, quadrupling market cap and increasing store count by over 10,000 locations globally.
作為背景,我們上一次修訂我們的長期目標是在 2010 年,我們對自那時以來的表現感到非常自豪,收入翻了一番多,收益翻了三倍,市值翻了兩番,全球門店數量增加了 10,000 多家。
Our strategic planning process serves as the basis of our long-term financial outlook and is informed by 3 guiding principles.
我們的戰略規劃流程是我們長期財務展望的基礎,並遵循 3 項指導原則。
First, Starbucks is committed to remaining a growth company and delivering well above industry average comp, revenue and profit growth.
首先,星巴克致力於保持一家成長型公司的地位,並實現遠高於行業平均水平的薪酬、收入和利潤增長。
Second, Starbucks is committed to streamlining our business, sharpening our focus and making thoughtful investments that position us to play the long game.
其次,星巴克致力於精簡我們的業務,突出我們的重點,並進行深思熟慮的投資,使我們能夠打持久戰。
And third, Starbucks is committed to a value-creation strategy that includes both consistent long-term profitable growth and rewards shareholders by returning cash in the form of dividend increases and share buybacks.
第三,星巴克致力於價值創造戰略,包括持續的長期盈利增長和通過以增加股息和股票回購的形式返還現金來回報股東。
With those principles in sharp focus, we challenged ourselves to balance the growth opportunity ahead with the headwinds confronting all retailers, particularly brick-and-mortar and restaurant retailers, our results over the past 2 years and the need to continue investing for growth.
在密切關注這些原則的情況下,我們挑戰自己,以平衡未來的增長機會與所有零售商(尤其是實體店和餐廳零售商)面臨的不利因素、我們過去 2 年的業績以及繼續投資以實現增長的需要。
Taking each of these factors into consideration, today, we introduced new long-term financial targets, comp growth of 3% to 5%; revenue growth in the high single digits, and EPS growth of 12% or better.
考慮到所有這些因素,今天,我們引入了新的長期財務目標,複合增長率為 3% 至 5%;收入以高個位數增長,每股收益增長 12% 或更高。
Now Scott will provide additional details, but we believe that these new targets represent performance that we can meet or beat in the years ahead, while continuing to deliver best-in-class growth for a global business of our scope and scale.
現在斯科特將提供更多細節,但我們相信這些新目標代表了我們在未來幾年可以達到或超越的業績,同時繼續為我們範圍和規模的全球業務提供一流的增長。
We are driving 3 important actions in support of our long-term guidance.
我們正在推動 3 項重要行動來支持我們的長期指導方針。
First, we are committed to investing in our future, specifically as it relates to partners, food and beverage innovation, digital innovation and Starbucks Reserve.
首先,我們致力於投資於我們的未來,特別是與合作夥伴、食品和飲料創新、數字創新和 Starbucks Reserve 相關的未來。
Second, we are adapting our cost structure to align with this new long-term guidance with focus on G&A and the middle of the P&L.
其次,我們正在調整我們的成本結構以符合這一新的長期指導方針,重點放在 G&A 和 P&L 的中間部分。
Third, we are streamlining our business and directing our investments toward businesses and operations where our growth prospects and returns are the greatest.
第三,我們正在精簡我們的業務,並將我們的投資引導到我們增長前景和回報最大的業務和運營中。
While transitioning, whether by licensing, divestiture or otherwise, businesses and operations where returns and long-term growth prospects are less attractive.
在轉型時,無論是通過許可、資產剝離還是其他方式,企業和運營的回報和長期增長前景都不那麼有吸引力。
Examples of recent streamlining activity include almost doubling our company-owned operations in Mainland China through the pending purchase of the remaining 50% of our East China operations, moving our businesses in Singapore, Germany and Taiwan, approximately 700 stores in aggregate, to a 100% licensed market model; initiating the closure of all Teavana retail stores; selling TAZO in order to focus on Teavana as our premium tea brand; and eliminating our Starbucks e-commerce operation in order to better leverage our channel partners.
近期精簡活動的例子包括:通過即將購買華東業務剩餘 50% 的股份,將我們在中國大陸的自有業務幾乎翻番;將我們在新加坡、德國和台灣的業務(總共約 700 家門店)轉移到 100 家% 許可市場模型;開始關閉所有 Teavana 零售店;出售 TAZO 以專注於將 Teavana 作為我們的優質茶葉品牌;取消我們的星巴克電子商務業務,以更好地利用我們的渠道合作夥伴。
Starbucks' future returns will increasingly benefit from our ongoing initiatives to further streamline our business.
星巴克未來的回報將越來越多地受益於我們為進一步簡化業務而採取的持續舉措。
In addition to our streamlining activities, we remain focused on executing against our 6 operational priorities.
除了我們的精簡活動,我們仍然專注於執行我們的 6 個運營優先事項。
Progress against our priorities form the foundation and will be the proof points of our new guidance.
我們優先事項的進展構成了基礎,並將成為我們新指南的證明點。
And in Q4, we made significant progress against each priority.
在第四季度,我們在每個優先事項上都取得了重大進展。
Scott will walk you through the details, but here are a few highlights.
Scott 將向您介紹詳細信息,但這裡有一些亮點。
Let me start with our efforts to accelerate U.S. comp.
讓我從我們加速美國競爭的努力開始。
Increased customer adoption of Mobile Order and Pay has resulted in a sustained increase in demand, particularly in our highest-volume stores at peak.
越來越多的客戶採用 Mobile Order and Pay 導致需求持續增長,特別是在我們高峰期銷量最高的商店。
We continue to leverage lean principles to further improve our in-store production engine, further increase throughput and deliver an improved customer experience.
我們繼續利用精益原則來進一步改進我們的店內生產引擎,進一步提高吞吐量並提供更好的客戶體驗。
This work, combined with labor deployment, digital order management and channel-focused production have enabled us to unlock capacity, particularly in our busiest mobile order stores at peak.
這項工作與勞動力部署、數字訂單管理和以渠道為中心的生產相結合,使我們能夠釋放產能,尤其是在高峰期最繁忙的移動訂單商店。
In fact, transaction cost in the U.S., net of hurricane-related impact, was the strongest performance in 6 quarters.
事實上,扣除颶風相關影響後,美國的交易成本是 6 個季度以來最強勁的表現。
At the same time, customer experience scores for both Mobile Order and Pay and non-Mobile Order and Pay customers reached record levels in Q4.
與此同時,移動訂單和支付以及非移動訂單和支付客戶的客戶體驗得分在第四季度達到了創紀錄的水平。
Our next operational priority is driving innovation in food and beverage and naturally links to our efforts to accelerate U.S. comp.
我們的下一個運營重點是推動食品和飲料領域的創新,這自然與我們加速美國競爭的努力有關。
Innovation across our coffee and tea beverage platforms with emphasis on cold, including our Cold Brew platform, Iced Espresso beverages and Teavana infusion Shaken Iced Teas all contributed to our growth in Q4.
我們以冷飲為重點的咖啡和茶飲料平台的創新,包括我們的冷萃咖啡平台、冰鎮濃縮咖啡飲料和 Teavana 沖泡奶昔冰茶,都為我們在第四季度的增長做出了貢獻。
In addition, we are leaning into our fast-growing categories around Cold Brew, draft Nitro beverages and plant-based modifiers, including almond, coconut and soymilk alternatives.
此外,我們正傾向於圍繞冷萃、生硝基飲料和植物性改良劑(包括杏仁、椰子和豆奶替代品)快速增長的品類。
Not only are these fast-growing platforms highly relevant to our customers, our research demonstrates that they also provide a significant opportunity to drive food attach outside of our core morning daypart.
這些快速增長的平台不僅與我們的客戶高度相關,我們的研究表明,它們還提供了一個重要的機會,可以在我們的核心早晨時段之外推動食物附加。
Our food program continues to grow and expand, with food mix now over 21% for the first time ever in Q4, giving us confidence that we will reach our target of 25% food mix by 2021.
我們的食品計劃繼續增長和擴大,食品組合在第四季度首次超過 21%,這讓我們有信心到 2021 年達到 25% 的食品組合目標。
Our priority to accelerate the power and momentum of our Digital Flywheel reflects the fact that digital relationships are among our most powerful demand-generation levers.
我們優先考慮加速數字飛輪的力量和勢頭,這反映出數字關係是我們最強大的需求生成槓桿之一。
In fiscal '17, Starbucks Rewards membership in the U.S. rose 11% year-over-year.
在 17 財年,美國的星巴克獎勵會員人數同比增長 11%。
Per member spend increased 8% in Q4 alone.
僅在第四季度,每位會員的支出就增長了 8%。
The cumulative effect is that, today, 36% of tender comes from Starbucks Rewards.
累積效應是,今天 36% 的投標來自星巴克獎勵。
The vast majority via our mobile app.
絕大多數通過我們的移動應用程序。
Having made measurable progress increasing throughput and customer experience at peak, we can soon begin offering Mobile Order and Pay capabilities and features to all customers, Starbucks Rewards member or not.
在提高吞吐量和峰值客戶體驗方面取得了可衡量的進展後,我們很快就可以開始向所有客戶提供移動訂單和支付功能和特性,無論是否是星巴克會員。
In quarters ahead, all customers will be able to download our app, set up a digital relationship with Starbucks, select a payment vehicle of their choice and use Mobile Order and Pay.
在未來幾個季度,所有客戶都可以下載我們的應用程序,與星巴克建立數字關係,選擇自己喜歡的支付方式,並使用移動訂單和支付。
This is the first of many initiatives that will combine direct digital relationships with new value propositions in order to expand the total universe of customers with whom we engage and communicate.
這是將直接數字關係與新價值主張相結合的眾多舉措中的第一個,以擴大我們與之互動和溝通的客戶總數。
The Digital Flywheel platform continues to evolve with new features and support new geographies.
Digital Flywheel 平台不斷發展,具有新功能並支持新的地理區域。
We recently launched Starbucks Rewards in Japan on the Digital Flywheel platform and already have nearly 2 million members, well ahead of our most optimistic projections, with store value as a percent of tender doubling in just a few store weeks.
我們最近在日本的 Digital Flywheel 平台上推出了 Starbucks Rewards,已經擁有近 200 萬會員,遠遠超出了我們最樂觀的預測,店面價值佔投標的百分比在短短幾週內翻了一番。
Japan also represents the first instance of our new global, cloud-based customer digital technology platform that will enable new capabilities and features in markets around the world, including North America.
日本也是我們新的基於雲的全球客戶數字技術平台的第一個實例,該平台將在包括北美在內的全球市場實現新的功能和特性。
The platform launched with near-perfect performance.
該平台以近乎完美的性能推出。
The next major application of this new technology platform will enable the launch of financial services products in the U.S. in conjunction with Chase.
這一新技術平台的下一個主要應用將與大通銀行一起在美國推出金融服務產品。
We are pleased to announce that our first product with Chase to be launched this winter will be a co-branded Visa credit card, enabling customers to receive Starbucks Rewards with their purchases, both in and out of Starbucks stores.
我們很高興地宣布,我們與大通將於今年冬天推出的第一款產品將是一張聯名 Visa 信用卡,讓顧客在星巴克門店內外的消費都能獲得星巴克禮賞。
The second product, the prepaid Visa card we have discussed on prior earnings calls, will be introduced shortly thereafter.
第二個產品,我們在之前的財報電話會議上討論過的預付 Visa 卡,將在不久後推出。
Both products will have forward options, a very rich rewards proposition for people who spend on credit and a unique store value product offering rewards for customers who prefer debit.
這兩種產品都將有遠期選擇權,為信用卡消費的人提供非常豐厚的獎勵,而獨特的儲值產品則為喜歡借記卡的客戶提供獎勵。
Our fourth operational priority is enabling long-term growth in China.
我們的第四個運營重點是在中國實現長期增長。
Our China growth strategy will be amplified as we transition our East China JV to a company-operated market and begin leveraging our local leadership teams and economies of scale to maximize the growth and profit opportunity ahead.
隨著我們將華東合資企業轉變為公司運營的市場,並開始利用我們當地的領導團隊和規模經濟來最大化未來的增長和利潤機會,我們的中國增長戰略將得到加強。
The opening of the Shanghai Roastery next month will further elevate the Starbucks brand in China while, at the same time, adding to our momentum across the business and market, underscoring, once again, the significant growth opportunity that China represents for Starbucks.
下個月上海烘焙工坊的開業將進一步提升星巴克品牌在中國的地位,同時增強我們在整個業務和市場的勢頭,再次凸顯中國對星巴克而言的巨大增長機遇。
Our fifth operational initiative is elevating the Starbucks experience through Roasteries and Reserve.
我們的第五項運營計劃是通過 Roasteries 和 Reserve 提升星巴克體驗。
Since 1971, the Starbucks brand has been built through leadership around all things coffee and tea and through the consistent delivery of a premium retail customer experience, the Starbucks Experience.
自 1971 年以來,星巴克品牌一直是通過圍繞咖啡和茶的領導地位以及通過始終如一地提供優質零售客戶體驗“星巴克體驗”而建立起來的。
Our Starbucks Roasteries and our Starbucks Reserve brand built on that long heritage and are central to our innovation strategy around branded, experiential retail customer destinations.
我們的 Starbucks Roasteries 和我們的 Starbucks Reserve 品牌建立在悠久的傳統之上,是我們圍繞品牌化、體驗式零售客戶目的地的創新戰略的核心。
Our Starbucks Roastery continues to attract and delight local customers and visitors from around the world while delivering double-digit comp growth and an average ticket approaching 4x that of a typical Starbucks store.
我們的星巴克烘焙工坊繼續吸引並取悅當地顧客和來自世界各地的遊客,同時實現兩位數的收入增長,平均票價接近典型星巴克門店的 4 倍。
And our Seattle Roastery will further benefit when our first Princi store opens inside it next week.
當我們的第一家 Princi 商店下週在西雅圖烘焙工坊內開業時,我們的西雅圖烘焙工坊將進一步受益。
We have great plans for the high-end, artisanal Italian bakery, Princi.
我們為高端手工意大利麵包店 Princi 制定了宏偉的計劃。
Princi will be embedded in every Starbucks Reserve Roastery, including our extraordinary 30,000 square-foot Shanghai Roastery opening next month, further elevating the culinary experience we offer customers.
Princi 將嵌入每家星巴克臻選烘焙工坊,包括我們將於下月開業的佔地 30,000 平方英尺的非凡上海烘焙工坊,進一步提升我們為客戶提供的烹飪體驗。
We also plan to add a number of stand-alone Princi stores featuring Starbucks Reserve coffees in the years ahead.
我們還計劃在未來幾年增加一些以星巴克珍藏咖啡為特色的獨立 Princi 商店。
Our Roasteries and Reserve brand continues Starbucks' tradition of delivering premium quality and groundbreaking innovation and both reaffirm our coffee and tea leadership and create further separation from the industry.
我們的 Roasteries 和 Reserve 品牌延續了星巴克提供優質品質和突破性創新的傳統,既重申了我們在咖啡和茶方面的領導地位,又與行業進一步脫節。
With Roasteries in New York, Tokyo, Milan and Chicago under construction or development, fiscal '18 will be a year of significant investment.
隨著紐約、東京、米蘭和芝加哥的 Roasteries 正在建設或開發中,18 財年將是重大投資的一年。
I invite you to join us on December 6 for opening day of our Shanghai Roastery.
我邀請您參加 12 月 6 日我們上海烘焙工坊的開幕日。
Our sixth operational priority is gaining share of at-home coffee.
我們的第六個運營重點是獲得家庭咖啡的份額。
Scott will take you through the details in a moment, but let me just say that we continue to innovate and win channel share in premium coffee, recording a very strong quarter of 8% revenue growth.
Scott 稍後將帶您了解詳細信息,但我只想說,我們繼續創新並贏得優質咖啡的渠道份額,記錄了 8% 收入增長的強勁季度。
As you can see, we remain laser-focused on successful execution against our 6 operational priorities.
如您所見,我們仍然專注於成功執行我們的 6 個運營重點。
Now Starbucks has always sought to be a different kind of company, a company that consistently delivers industry-leading financial performance, while, at the same time, using our scale for good.
現在,星巴克一直致力於成為一家與眾不同的公司,一家始終如一地提供行業領先財務業績的公司,同時利用我們的規模永遠做好事。
In addition to delivering record results in fiscal '17 against a difficult industry backdrop, we're proud of the many important social impact initiatives we advanced, all of which support our brand.
除了在困難的行業背景下在 17 財年取得創紀錄的業績外,我們還為我們推進的許多重要的社會影響舉措感到自豪,所有這些舉措都支持我們的品牌。
We have created opportunities for many.
我們為許多人創造了機會。
In the past year alone, we hired more than 40,000 opportunity youth and aspire to hire 100,000 by 2020.
僅在過去一年,我們就僱傭了 40,000 多名有機會的年輕人,併計劃到 2020 年僱傭 100,000 名。
Earlier this year, we surpassed our goal of hiring 10,000 veterans and military spouses and have now increased our goal to hiring 25,000 by 2025.
今年早些時候,我們超額完成了僱用 10,000 名退伍軍人和軍人配偶的目標,現在我們的目標增加到到 2025 年僱用 25,000 人。
In addition, we now have over 8,000 Starbucks partners enrolled in the Starbucks College Achievement Plan in partnership with ASU.
此外,我們現在有超過 8,000 名星巴克合作夥伴與亞利桑那州立大學合作參加了星巴克大學成就計劃。
I'm particularly proud of how our partners responded to the powerful hurricanes that devastated South Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico.
我對我們的合作夥伴如何應對摧毀南德克薩斯、佛羅里達和波多黎各的強大颶風感到特別自豪。
They responded with resilience, compassion, strength and unity, supporting their partners, customers and communities.
他們以韌性、同情心、力量和團結回應,支持他們的合作夥伴、客戶和社區。
Before handing the call over to Scott, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge our Starbucks leadership team, a talented, experienced, committed and diverse group of servant leaders.
在將電話交給 Scott 之前,我想花點時間感謝我們的星巴克領導團隊,他們是一群才華橫溢、經驗豐富、忠誠且多元化的僕人式領導者。
We are a team committed to Starbucks' future, and I'm honored to officially introduce Ross Brewer, our newly appointed Group President Americas and Chief Operating Officer.
我們是一個致力於星巴克未來的團隊,我很榮幸地正式介紹我們新任命的美洲區集團總裁兼首席運營官 Ross Brewer。
With John Culver as Group President International and Channels, Cliff Burrows as Group President of Siren Retail.
John Culver 擔任國際和渠道集團總裁,Cliff Burrows 擔任 Siren Retail 集團總裁。
And Ross, in her new role, we have 3 very strong and seasoned operators leading these businesses.
羅斯,在她的新角色中,我們有 3 位非常強大且經驗豐富的運營商領導這些業務。
Our entire leadership team is aligned around the strategies I've outlined for you today, and I have the utmost confidence in our future.
我們的整個領導團隊都圍繞我今天為您概述的戰略保持一致,我對我們的未來充滿信心。
With that, I'd like to hand the call over to Scott.
有了這個,我想把電話交給斯科特。
Scott?
斯科特?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝你,凱文,大家下午好。
As Kevin shared, fiscal 2017 was another year of strong performance for Starbucks.
正如凱文所說,2017 財年是星巴克業績強勁的又一年。
We reported solid top and bottom line growth, and in Q4, our best increase in U.S. traffic since early calendar 2016, despite a challenging retail operating environment overall.
儘管整體零售運營環境充滿挑戰,但我們報告了穩健的收入和利潤增長,並且在第四季度,美國客流量是自 2016 年初以來的最佳增幅。
On today's call, I will provide an overview of our Q4 and 2017 results, expand on Kevin's comments regarding our long-term financial targets and introduce guidance for fiscal 2018.
在今天的電話會議上,我將概述我們第四季度和 2017 年的業績,詳細闡述凱文關於我們長期財務目標的評論,並介紹 2018 財年的指導意見。
Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.55 was up 10% over last year and includes a $0.01 benefit from higher income on unredeemed Starbucks cards, offset by an estimated $0.01 of negative impact resulting from the hurricanes, primarily from lost sales.
第 4 季度非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 0.55 美元,比去年增長 10%,其中包括未兌換的星巴克卡收入增加帶來的 0.01 美元收益,抵消了颶風造成的估計 0.01 美元的負面影響,主要是銷售損失。
Our Q4 non-GAAP operating margin came in at 20%, down 90 basis points from last year, the result of 130 basis point increase in partner and digital investments; 70 basis points for mix shift; principally increased food sales in the U.S.; and an estimated 40 basis points of hurricane-related impact, partially offset by strong sales leverage, particularly in CAP.
我們第四季度的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 20%,比去年下降 90 個基點,這是合作夥伴和數字投資增加 130 個基點的結果;混合轉移70個基點;主要是增加了美國的食品銷量;颶風相關影響估計有 40 個基點,部分被強大的銷售槓桿所抵消,尤其是在 CAP 中。
I'll now take you through our Q4 operating performance by segments.
我現在將帶您了解我們第四季度的經營業績。
Americas revenues grew 7% in Q4 to nearly $4 billion, primarily driven by 952 net new store openings over the past 12 months and 3% comp growth.
美洲第四季度收入增長 7% 至近 40 億美元,這主要是由於過去 12 個月新開的 952 家新店和 3% 的收入增長。
Americas' 23% Q4 non-GAAP operating margin was down 390 basis points from last year, the result of 180 basis points of incremental U.S. store partner investment, 90 basis point from food sale-driven mix shift and 40 basis points attributable to the hurricanes.
美洲第四季度非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 23%,較去年下降 390 個基點,這是美國門店合作夥伴投資增量 180 個基點、食品銷售驅動的組合轉變下降 90 個基點以及颶風造成的 40 個基點的結果.
For the year, Americas grew revenues by 8% and delivered an operating margin of 23.4% compared to 25% in 2016, primarily due to increased partner investments.
與 2016 年的 25% 相比,今年美洲地區的收入增長了 8%,營業利潤率為 23.4%,這主要歸功於合作夥伴投資的增加。
In Q4, our core espresso, tea and refreshment beverage platforms delivered a combined 2 points of U.S. comp growth, partially offset by blended Frappuccino beverages, primarily in the afternoon daypart.
在第 4 季度,我們的核心濃縮咖啡、茶和提神飲料平台在美國實現了 2 個百分點的綜合增長,部分被混合星冰樂飲料抵消,主要是在下午時段。
Food also contributed 2 points of comp now for the third consecutive quarter, driven principally by increased attach.
食品現在也連續第三個季度貢獻了 2 個百分點,主要是受附加值增加的推動。
Ricotta continues to perform very well in both Seattle and Chicago with a fresh food focus that is driving customer delight and incrementality.
意大利乳清乾酪在西雅圖和芝加哥繼續表現出色,以新鮮食品為重點,推動客戶的滿意度和增量。
Also, disciplined price adjustments continue to help us offset rising labor and other input costs.
此外,有紀律的價格調整繼續幫助我們抵消不斷上升的勞動力和其他投入成本。
As holiday approaches, we have a full pipeline of innovative food and beverage offerings and returning seasonal favorites to surprise and delight our customers, and we're fully prepared for increased holiday traffic in our stores with the throughput initiatives Kevin discussed, positioning us to continue delivering improved transaction comps at peak.
隨著假期的臨近,我們擁有完整的創新食品和飲料產品線,並回歸時令最愛,讓我們的顧客驚喜和愉悅,我們已經做好充分準備,通過凱文討論的吞吐量計劃來增加我們商店的假期客流量,使我們能夠繼續在高峰期提供改進的交易補償。
Moving on to China/Asia Pacific.
轉到中國/亞太地區。
CAP once again delivered company-leading growth in Q4, with revenues increasing to $860 million, up 14% after adjusting for 4 points of FX.
CAP 在第四季度再次實現了公司領先的增長,收入增至 8.6 億美元,按 4 個外匯點調整後增長 14%。
CAP's growth was largely driven by the over 1,000 net new stores opened during the past 12 months and 2% comp growth.
CAP 的增長主要得益於過去 12 個月新開的 1,000 多家淨門店和 2% 的複合增長率。
China continued its outperformance with 8% comp growth, its strongest in 9 quarters, driven by food and core beverage performance, momentum in Starbucks Rewards and increasing sales of Teavana-branded handcrafted tea beverages.
在食品和核心飲料業績、星巴克獎勵的勢頭以及 Teavana 品牌手工茶飲料銷量增加的推動下,中國繼續以 8% 的複合增長率表現出色,這是 9 個季度中最強勁的。
Teavana has now contributed 2 points or more to China comp every quarter since we introduced the brand into the China market last year.
自去年我們將該品牌引入中國市場以來,Teavana 現在每個季度都為中國市場貢獻了 2 個百分點或更多。
Comp growth in Japan improved sequentially from Q3.
日本的 comp 增長從第三季度開始連續改善。
Overall store and market profitability in Japan remain very strong with comp growth in core food, tea and espresso categories offset by negative comp in blended.
日本的整體商店和市場盈利能力仍然非常強勁,核心食品、茶和濃縮咖啡類別的利潤增長被混合業務的負利潤所抵消。
For perspective, sale for blended beverages in Japan represented over 40% of sales mix in the spring and summer months compared to less than 15% in the U.S. Thus shifts in blended sales in Japan have a disproportionate impact on both Japan and CAP comps overall.
從長遠來看,日本混合飲料的銷售額占春季和夏季銷售組合的 40% 以上,而美國則不到 15%。因此,日本混合飲料銷售額的變化對日本和 CAP 整體的影響不成比例。
For that reason, it is important not to over index on Japan comps as we shift away from blended towards a broader mix of core products.
出於這個原因,在我們從混合轉向更廣泛的核心產品組合時,重要的是不要過度指數化日本產品。
CAP operating income increased 16% to $219 million in Q4, while operating margin expanded 140 basis points, driven by strong performance from both our company-owned stores in China and our JV partnerships in East China and South Korea.
CAP 營業收入在第四季度增長 16% 至 2.19 億美元,而營業利潤率增長 140 個基點,這得益於我們在中國的自有門店以及我們在華東和韓國的合資夥伴關係的強勁表現。
South Korea, now our fifth largest global market with system sales exceeding $1 billion, deserves special mention, posting double-digit comp growth in fiscal 2017 and further underscoring the broad success we're having across CAP.
韓國現在是我們的第五大全球市場,系統銷售額超過 10 億美元,值得特別提及,它在 2017 財年實現了兩位數的收入增長,進一步凸顯了我們在 CAP 取得的廣泛成功。
For the year, CAP revenues grew 14%, excluding 2 points of negative FX, and operating income, a stunning 24%, driven by strong operating performance across the segment and the benefit of value-added tax changes in China.
全年,CAP 收入增長 14%,不包括 2 個百分點的負外彙和營業收入,驚人的 24%,這得益於整個部門強勁的經營業績和中國增值稅變化的好處。
I'd like to take a moment to highlight the significant profit growth engine we have built in CAP where, together, our CAP markets delivered nearly 50% of Starbucks total non-GAAP operating income growth in 2017.
我想花點時間強調一下我們在 CAP 中建立的顯著利潤增長引擎,我們的 CAP 市場共同貢獻了 2017 年星巴克非 GAAP 營業收入增長總額的近 50%。
We see another year of strong operating income growth in 2018, with CAP once again contributing a material portion of our absolute growth.
我們看到 2018 年又是營業收入強勁增長的一年,CAP 再次貢獻了我們絕對增長的重要部分。
And the acquisition of our East China business will be further accretive to our CAP growth rate, particularly as we move through this year and into 2019.
收購我們的華東業務將進一步提高我們的 CAP 增長率,尤其是在我們進入今年和 2019 年的時候。
Starbucks now has 2 significant profit engines driving our global returns, our North America business and the broader CAP market.
星巴克現在有兩個重要的利潤引擎來推動我們的全球回報,我們的北美業務和更廣泛的 CAP 市場。
Going forward, we will be allocating more time to CAP in our prepared remarks, given the increasing importance of the segment.
展望未來,鑑於該細分市場的重要性與日俱增,我們將在準備好的評論中為 CAP 分配更多時間。
Turning to EMEA.
轉向 EMEA。
In Q4, EMEA delivered revenue growth of 7% to $270 million, the segment's strongest quarterly revenue growth in 3 years.
第四季度,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入增長了 7%,達到 2.7 億美元,這是該部門 3 年來最強勁的季度收入增長。
Company-operated store comp was 1% in the quarter, while system-wide comps increased a strong 5%.
本季度公司經營的商店收入為 1%,而全系統收入強勁增長 5%。
EMEA margin in Q4 was 12.9% compared to 16.2% last year, reflecting softer performance in our company-owned markets and a 210 basis point impact from a tax settlement in Q4 2017, offset by the benefit of store mix shift towards the license model.
歐洲、中東和非洲第四季度的利潤率為 12.9%,而去年為 16.2%,這反映出我們公司自有市場的表現疲軟以及 2017 年第四季度稅收結算帶來的 210 個基點的影響,但被商店組合轉向許可模式的好處所抵消。
For the year, EMEA revenue declined 8% relative to 2016.
今年,EMEA 收入較 2016 年下降了 8%。
However, adjusting for FX and the impact of mix shift to licensed stores, EMEA revenue grew 7%, a strong result given the challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop.
然而,在調整匯率和混合轉向特許商店的影響後,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入增長了 7%,鑑於充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治背景,這是一個強勁的結果。
Non-GAAP operating margin of 13.2% was roughly flat to 2016 that included 140 basis points of negative FX impact.
非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 13.2%,與 2016 年大致持平,其中包括 140 個基點的負面外匯影響。
Today, of EMEA's nearly 3,000 stores, 83% are licensed.
如今,在 EMEA 的近 3,000 家商店中,83% 已獲得許可。
Our continued focus on improving operations and shifting the mix to more licensed stores has resulted in consistent, mid-single-digit system-wide comp growth in EMEA and 13 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating margin.
我們繼續專注於改善運營並將業務組合轉移到更多特許商店,這導致歐洲、中東和非洲地區的全系統薪酬持續保持中等個位數增長,並連續 13 個季度實現兩位數的營業利潤率。
In Q4, our Channel Development segment grew revenues by 8% to $515 million and operating income by 7% to $247 million.
第四季度,我們的渠道開發部門收入增長 8% 至 5.15 億美元,營業收入增長 7% 至 2.47 億美元。
We gained share in both K-Cup and roasting ground categories and increased our share of total coffee by twice the category growth overall, performance that is particularly noteworthy given increased competition and discounting in the face of slowing category growth.
我們在 K-Cup 和烘焙磨碎類別中的份額都增加了,我們在咖啡總量中的份額增加了整體類別增長的兩倍,鑑於類別增長放緩導致競爭加劇和折扣,這一表現尤其值得注意。
Growing Teavana in CPG channels is a major opportunity for us.
在 CPG 渠道中發展 Teavana 對我們來說是一個重大機遇。
In our pilot markets, Teavana ready-to-drink tea captured the leading position in the super premium tea category during the quarter.
在我們的試點市場中,Teavana 即飲茶在本季度佔據了超優質茶品類的領先地位。
And given the enthusiastic response to date, we have accelerated our national rollout to this coming January.
鑑於迄今為止的熱烈反響,我們已加快在今年 1 月在全國推出的速度。
We also remain on track to launch Teavana-based packaged teas in grocery channels by the end of fiscal 2018.
我們還有望在 2018 財年末之前在食品雜貨渠道推出基於 Teavana 的包裝茶。
Channel Development operating margin was roughly flat at 47.9%, the net of improved sales leverage offset by promotional activities.
渠道開發營業利潤率大致持平,為 47.9%,已扣除促銷活動所抵消的提高的銷售槓桿。
For the year, Channel's revenues exceeded $2 billion for the first time ever, up 6% year-over-year, increasing to 8% year-over-year, after adjusting for the 2-point impact of revenue adjustments in Q2.
全年,渠道收入首次突破 20 億美元,同比增長 6%,在調整了 Q2 收入調整的 2 點影響後,同比增長 8%。
Starbucks total coffee share grew by 1 point compared to an essentially flat market, and our dollar share expanded by over 5%.
與基本持平的市場相比,星巴克的咖啡總份額增長了 1 個百分點,而我們的美元份額增長了 5% 以上。
Operating income grew 13% and margin expanded by 260 basis points, driven by COGS, including coffee favorability, strong performance from our North American coffee partnership and sales leverage.
在 COGS 的推動下,營業收入增長了 13%,利潤率增長了 260 個基點,包括咖啡的受歡迎程度、我們北美咖啡合作夥伴關係的強勁表現和銷售槓桿。
Let's now shift to our consolidated full fiscal year 2017 results.
現在讓我們轉向我們合併的 2017 財年完整業績。
For the full fiscal year 2017, Starbucks posted consolidated revenue of $22.4 billion, representing 7% growth year-over-year, driven by new stores and 3% comp growth.
在整個 2017 財年,星巴克公佈的綜合收入為 224 億美元,同比增長 7%,這主要得益於新店和 3% 的複合增長率。
Non-GAAP operating income increased by 8% to $4.4 billion, and operating margin increased by 10 basis points to 19.7% as strong sales leverage was offset by 110 basis points of increased partner investments.
非 GAAP 營業收入增長 8% 至 44 億美元,營業利潤率增長 10 個基點至 19.7%,這是因為強大的銷售槓桿被合作夥伴投資增加的 110 個基點所抵消。
Growth rates in both operating income and non-GAAP EPS were impacted by 1 point of negative FX.
營業收入和非 GAAP 每股收益的增長率均受到 1 個負匯率的影響。
In addition, investments in Reserve, Roastery and Princi brands, operations that we collectively refer to as Siren Retail, were up significantly from 2016, and higher than we expected at the outset of 2017, as we shared during our Q3 call.
此外,我們統稱為 Siren Retail 的 Reserve、Roastery 和 Princi 品牌的投資較 2016 年大幅增加,高於我們在 2017 年初的預期,正如我們在第三季度電話會議中分享的那樣。
We expect the impact of these investments to increase at a similar rate in fiscal 2018, and at a reduced rate as we move into fiscal 2019.
我們預計這些投資的影響將在 2018 財年以類似的速度增長,並在我們進入 2019 財年時以較低的速度增長。
Finally, we returned a record $3.5 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2017 through dividends and share repurchases.
最後,我們在 2017 財年通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了創紀錄的 35 億美元。
Let's now spend a few minutes on our revised long-term guidance.
現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間討論一下我們修訂後的長期指導方針。
Going forward, we see revenue growth in the high single digits and comp growth in the 3% to 5% range.
展望未來,我們預計收入將以高個位數增長,複合增長率將在 3% 至 5% 之間。
Performance that should enable us to deliver non-GAAP EPS growth of 12% or greater and ROIC of 25% or greater.
業績應該使我們能夠實現 12% 或更高的非 GAAP 每股收益增長和 25% 或更高的 ROIC。
As discussed at Investor Day, we see ongoing opportunities in COGS savings and core G&A growing at half the rate of revenue growth.
正如在投資者日討論的那樣,我們看到 COGS 節省和核心 G&A 的持續機會以收入增長率的一半增長。
This change in our growth targets requires us to look at all financial aspects of our business, including capital returned to shareholders.
我們增長目標的這種變化要求我們審視我們業務的所有財務方面,包括返還給股東的資本。
For perspective, in the 3 years ending in 2014, we returned $3.8 billion in capital to shareholders, a figure that more than doubled to $9.1 billion in the 3 fiscal years ending in 2017, as prudent leveraging of our balance sheet, combined with strong operating performance, enabled us to significantly increase dividends and share repurchases.
從長遠來看,在截至 2014 年的 3 年裡,我們向股東返還了 38 億美元的資本,這一數字在截至 2017 年的三個財政年度翻了一番多,達到 91 億美元,這是因為我們審慎地利用了我們的資產負債表,加上強勁的運營業績,使我們能夠顯著增加股息和股票回購。
Dividends over the 6-year period increased in average of 24% annually, and our earnings payout ratio is now nearly 50%.
6 年期間的股息平均每年增長 24%,我們的收益支付率現在接近 50%。
Today, we announced another 20% increase in our quarterly cash dividend to $0.30 per share, and we also announced a new commitment to returning $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over the next 3 years.
今天,我們宣布將季度現金股息再增加 20% 至每股 0.30 美元,我們還宣布了一項新承諾,即在未來 3 年內通過股息和股票回購向股東返還 150 億美元。
As part of this action, we will increase our leverage to support debt ratings that are 1 notch lower than our current rating agency results.
作為此行動的一部分,我們將提高槓桿率以支持比我們目前的評級機構結果低 1 個等級的債務評級。
This reflects our confidence in the strength of the business and our commitment to increasing cash returned to shareholders.
這反映了我們對業務實力的信心以及我們對增加向股東返還現金的承諾。
Let's now turn our attention to our financial targets for fiscal 2018.
現在讓我們將注意力轉向 2018 財年的財務目標。
We expect global comp growth in fiscal 2018 to be in the 3% to 5% range.
我們預計 2018 財年的全球薪酬增長率將在 3% 至 5% 之間。
Complementing this comp growth will be the addition of approximately 2,300 net new stores globally.
與這一增長相輔相成的是,全球將新增約 2,300 家淨新店。
Our China/Asia Pacific segment will drive roughly half of our global store growth in fiscal 2018 with 1,100 net new stores, nearly 600 in China.
我們的中國/亞太地區將在 2018 財年推動約一半的全球門店增長,新增門店數量為 1,100 家,其中近 600 家在中國。
Our Americas segment plans to add 900 net new stores, split roughly evenly between company-owned and licensed, and EMEA is targeting approximately 300 net new stores, virtually all licensed.
我們的美洲分部計劃淨增 900 家新店,在公司自有店和特許店之間大致平均分配,而 EMEA 的目標是淨增約 300 家新店,幾乎都是特許店。
While on the topic of store growth, I'd like to take a moment to specifically address questions concerning whether our U.S. sales are simply being transferred from existing stores to new stores as we grow our U.S. store portfolio, and let me be clear, the effects of sales transfer on our U.S. store comp is small and stable, and the overall effect of new stores on comp and profit growth remains very positive.
在談到商店增長的話題時,我想花點時間專門解決有關我們的美國銷售額是否只是隨著我們在美國商店組合的增長而從現有商店轉移到新商店的問題,讓我明確一點,銷售轉移對我們美國商店收入的影響小而穩定,新店對收入和利潤增長的整體影響仍然非常積極。
Net new store portfolio growth rates in the U.S. have been roughly 5% for the past few years, and company-owned portfolio growth rates have been even lower at 4%.
過去幾年,美國的淨新店組合增長率約為 5%,而公司擁有的組合增長率甚至更低,為 4%。
Our new store formats, including a strong mix of drive-through locations, improved real estate analytics and the ability to use new stores to drive improved throughput in existing stores are all important factors in keeping the net impact on our financial returns from new stores in the U.S. a strong positive.
我們的新商店形式,包括駕車通過地點的強大組合、改進的房地產分析以及使用新商店來提高現有商店吞吐量的能力,都是保持新商店對我們財務回報淨影響的重要因素美國強勢利好。
The topic of new store sales transfer remains a nonissue for Starbucks.
新店銷售轉移的話題對星巴克來說仍然不是問題。
It is important to note that our effects to streamline our business will have an impact on reported 2018 revenue growth.
重要的是要注意,我們精簡業務的效果將對報告的 2018 年收入增長產生影響。
Specifically, revenue will be impacted by the recent shifts in our retail store portfolio, including the pending acquisition of East China and licensing of Taiwan and Singapore; and the strategic actions we are taking to exit our non-core activities, including closing Teavana stores and the Starbucks e-commerce platform; selling TAZO and aggressively rationalizing merchandise available for sale in our U.S. retail stores.
具體而言,收入將受到我們零售店組合近期變化的影響,包括即將收購的華東地區以及台灣和新加坡的許可;以及我們為退出非核心業務而採取的戰略行動,包括關閉 Teavana 門店和星巴克電子商務平台;銷售 TAZO 並積極合理化我們美國零售店出售的商品。
We estimate these changes will add 2 to 3 points to targeted revenue growth in the high single digits.
我們估計這些變化將使高個位數的目標收入增長增加 2 到 3 個百分點。
As it relates to GAAP EPS, the impact of these actions will be very positive given the large expected gains on East China and on TAZO.
由於它與 GAAP EPS 相關,鑑於華東和 TAZO 的巨大預期收益,這些行動的影響將非常積極。
For non-GAAP EPS, the net impact will be relatively modest in 2018, flat to slightly accretive as the benefit from closing the Teavana mall stores and adding the East China business are offset by the Taiwan, TAZO and Singapore transactions.
對於非 GAAP 每股收益,2018 年的淨影響將相對溫和,持平或略有增加,因為關閉 Teavana 購物中心商店和增加華東業務帶來的好處被台灣、TAZO 和新加坡交易所抵消。
Again, the cumulative impact of these moves will begin to become more meaningfully accretive to earnings growth as we move into the back half of fiscal 2018 and into 2019.
同樣,隨著我們進入 2018 財年下半年和 2019 年,這些舉措的累積影響將開始對收益增長產生更有意義的增長。
As a reminder, we will hold a detailed modeling call in January to take you through the specific impacts of the East China acquisition on CAP and total company results.
提醒一下,我們將在 1 月份舉行詳細的建模電話會議,帶您了解華東收購對 CAP 和公司總體業績的具體影響。
Also, we recognize that the cumulative effect of these strategic transaction and activities will have a meaningful impact on reported results, and we'll be sure you have a full reconciliation and a clearer view on core revenue and earnings growth rates as we move through 2018.
此外,我們認識到這些戰略交易和活動的累積效應將對報告的結果產生有意義的影響,我們將確保您對 2018 年的核心收入和盈利增長率有全面的核對和更清晰的認識.
Finally, it's important to note that both the East China and the TAZO transactions require regulatory approval prior to closing.
最後,值得注意的是,華東和 TAZO 交易在交割前都需要獲得監管部門的批准。
Fiscal 2018 consolidated operating margin is expected to be up slightly relative to fiscal 2017, excluding the impact that the change in ownership structure in East China has on operating margin.
預計 2018 財年綜合營業利潤率相對於 2017 財年略有上升,不包括華東地區所有權結構變化對營業利潤率的影響。
We expect leverage on cost of goods sold as we continue to make progress against our savings target through 2021.
我們預計,隨著我們在 2021 年之前的節約目標方面繼續取得進展,我們將對銷售商品成本產生影響。
We will grow core G&A at half the rate of revenue growth, a goal we met in 2017 after adjusting both 2016 and 2017 for items affecting comparability.
我們將以收入增長率的一半增長核心 G&A,這是我們在調整 2016 年和 2017 年影響可比性的項目後於 2017 年實現的目標。
Notably, the incremental dollar impact from partner and digital investments is expected to be lower in 2018.
值得注意的是,預計 2018 年合作夥伴和數字投資對美元的增量影響將會降低。
Looking at our segments.
看看我們的細分市場。
We expect our operating margin in the Americas to be up slightly relative to 2017, reflecting sales leverage, optimized labor deployment and COGS and waste efficiencies.
我們預計我們在美洲的營業利潤率將比 2017 年略有上升,這反映了銷售槓桿、優化的勞動力部署以及銷貨成本和廢物利用效率。
We expect moderate margin expansion from our CAP segment in 2018, excluding the impact from the change in the ownership structure for East China, driven by strong operating results throughout the region.
我們預計 2018 年我們的 CAP 部門的利潤率將適度增長,不包括華東地區強勁經營業績推動的所有權結構變化的影響。
We expect solid margin expansion from our EMEA segment in fiscal 2018.
我們預計 2018 財年我們的 EMEA 部門的利潤率將穩步增長。
Channel Development will continue to grow share and deliver best-in-class performance in fiscal 2018, with slight margin expansion over the prior year.
Channel Development 將在 2018 財年繼續擴大份額並提供一流的業績,利潤率比上一年略有增長。
As mentioned earlier, a significant portion of the 2017 favorability in channels was driven by commodities and COGS favorability that we don't see continuing at the same levels in 2018.
如前所述,2017 年渠道青睞度的很大一部分是由商品和 COGS 青睞度推動的,我們認為 2018 年不會繼續保持在同一水平。
Also, we expect to see margin improvement from our NACP partnership, but again, at lower levels than 2017.
此外,我們預計我們的 NACP 合作夥伴關係將提高利潤率,但同樣低於 2017 年的水平。
With competitive pressures on the rise, we remain laser-focused on driving profitable share growth as we head into calendar 2018.
隨著競爭壓力的增加,在進入 2018 年之際,我們仍然專注於推動盈利份額的增長。
Neither FX nor commodities are expected to have a major impact on year-over-year profit growth, and our coffee needs are roughly 75% price locked for fiscal 2018.
預計外彙和大宗商品都不會對同比利潤增長產生重大影響,我們的咖啡需求在 2018 財年鎖定了大約 75% 的價格。
We expect our effective tax rate for 2018 to be approximately 27%, including approximately 6 points of favorable impact from the planned acquisition of East China.
我們預計 2018 年的實際稅率約為 27%,其中包括計劃收購華東地區的約 6 個有利影響點。
Capital expenditures in fiscal 2018 are expected to total roughly $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in 2017.
2018 財年的資本支出預計總額約為 20 億美元,高於 2017 年的 15 億美元。
The increase is split evenly among investments in Siren Retail, store-related capital and our supply chain and corporate facilities.
增長平均分配給對 Siren Retail 的投資、與商店相關的資本以及我們的供應鍊和企業設施。
This last category includes the addition of roasting capacity to handle increased demand globally for Starbucks coffee.
最後一類包括增加烘焙能力以滿足全球對星巴克咖啡不斷增長的需求。
Our GAAP EPS growth rate in fiscal 2018 is likely to be above 40% given the large gains likely contributing over $0.50 of incremental EPS we expect from the East China and TAZO transaction.
我們 2018 財年的 GAAP 每股收益增長率可能會超過 40%,因為我們預計華東和 TAZO 交易的巨大收益可能會貢獻超過 0.50 美元的增量每股收益。
Given these inputs, we expect non-GAAP EPS growth of 12% to 13%, or $2.30 to $2.33 per share in fiscal 2018, with growth in the front half of the year likely a bit below the full year average and growth in the back half somewhat above it.
鑑於這些投入,我們預計 2018 財年非 GAAP 每股收益增長 12% 至 13%,或每股 2.30 美元至 2.33 美元,上半年的增長可能略低於全年平均水平,而後半年的增長一半略高於它。
Three factors will drive this improved profitability over the course of 2018: The timing impact of the strategic actions we discussed earlier, with the impact increasing as we move into the back half of the year; operational savings in the U.S. business will ramp up over the course of the year; and buybacks will be more accretive to EPS each quarter in 2018.
三個因素將推動 2018 年盈利能力的提高:我們之前討論的戰略行動的時間影響,隨著我們進入下半年,影響會增加;美國業務的運營節省將在這一年中增加;回購將在 2018 年每個季度增加每股收益。
As we entered fiscal 2017, the company was shaped to support a 5% or greater comp profile.
當我們進入 2017 財年時,公司已調整為支持 5% 或更高的薪酬組合。
Our investments, G&A expense and overall shape in the middle of the P&L required that level of growth to deliver on our 2017 commitments.
我們的投資、G&A 費用和 P&L 中間的整體形狀需要這種增長水平來實現我們 2017 年的承諾。
Going forward, we will complement our laser focus on delivering profitable growth with a renewed focus on driving operational efficiency and to streamlining and reshaping the company in order to deliver or exceed the new financial targets we introduced today, while funding our investments, increasing our operating margins, driving further returns on invested capital and providing outsized returns to our shareholders.
展望未來,我們將通過重新關注提高運營效率以及精簡和重塑公司來補充我們對實現盈利增長的激光關注,以實現或超過我們今天推出的新財務目標,同時為我們的投資提供資金,增加我們的運營利潤率,推動投資資本的進一步回報,並為我們的股東提供超額回報。
As always, credit for our ability to deliver another year and quarter of record performance belongs to our store partners who proudly wear the green apron and deliver an elevated Starbucks Experience to our customers all around the world every day.
一如既往,我們能夠再創一年和一個季度的創紀錄業績,這要歸功於我們的門店合作夥伴,他們自豪地身披綠色圍裙,每天為世界各地的顧客提供更優質的星巴克體驗。
With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.
有了這個,我會把電話轉回給接線員。
Operator?
操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of John Ivankoe, JPMorgan.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。
John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst
John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst
Obviously, a lot to get through on this call, but I'll limit my question to the cost side of the equation.
顯然,在這次電話會議上有很多事情要做,但我會把我的問題限制在等式的成本方面。
Kevin, in your prepared remarks, it seems like you're opening the door to what may actually be a significant kind of rethink or redo from the cost structure of the business.
凱文,在你準備好的發言中,你似乎打開了大門,實際上可能是對企業成本結構進行重大的重新思考或重做。
I think you mentioned both G&A and the middle of the P&L, but in Scott's remarks, we're still talking about G&A growing at half the amount of revenue.
我認為你同時提到了 G&A 和 P&L 的中間部分,但在 Scott 的評論中,我們仍在談論 G&A 以收入的一半增長。
And at least I didn't pick up anything discrete that was happening at the store level from a cost perspective.
至少我沒有從成本的角度來看商店層面發生的任何離散事件。
So I just wanted to kind of juxtapose those 2 different themes of conversation because I heard different things.
所以我只是想把這兩個不同的談話主題並列起來,因為我聽到了不同的東西。
And to the extent that revenue isn't quite what we want, how much of an opportunity is there at the store level P&L and the G&A relative to the initial guidance that you've given for fiscal '18?
就收入不是我們想要的程度而言,相對於您為 18 財年給出的初步指導,商店層面的 P&L 和 G&A 有多少機會?
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
I'll start and then I'll turn it over to John Culver.
我會開始,然後我會把它交給 John Culver。
The first thing I would say is, in the core G&A of the business, there's still significant opportunity to drive leverage.
我要說的第一件事是,在業務的核心 G&A 中,仍然存在推動槓桿作用的重要機會。
We have a target of growing core G&A at half the rate of leverage, but that's -- or half the rate of revenue, but that's just the target.
我們的目標是以一半的槓桿率增長核心 G&A,但那是 - 或者收入率的一半,但這只是目標。
We will try to beat that.
我們將努力擊敗它。
And what's important, as we move through these streamlining opportunities, selling TAZO, licensing more markets, we'll be able to lean in on corporate and business unit G&A further because the simplified operations give us that opportunity.
重要的是,隨著我們通過這些精簡機會、銷售 TAZO、獲得更多市場的許可,我們將能夠進一步依靠公司和業務部門 G&A,因為簡化的運營為我們提供了機會。
And then, what is a little bit new this time and where we're really digging in is really around labor and waste, in particular, in the U.S. business.
然後,這次有一點點新意,我們真正深入研究的地方實際上是圍繞勞動力和浪費,特別是在美國業務中。
And there's significant opportunity there.
那裡有很大的機會。
And I think, we should give you some specific's on that, and I'll have John do that.
我認為,我們應該就此向您提供一些具體信息,我會讓 John 這樣做。
John Culver - President of International & Channels
John Culver - President of International & Channels
Yes, John.
是的,約翰。
Just real quick, clearly, the biggest driver of the growth is going to be transaction growth and how do we continue to accelerate transactions, both in terms of driving more product innovation in the stores, driving more throughput through our existing stores and then continuing to enhance in these digital relationships.
很快,很明顯,增長的最大驅動力將是交易增長,以及我們如何繼續加速交易,無論是在商店中推動更多的產品創新,通過我們現有的商店推動更多的吞吐量,然後繼續增強這些數字關係。
That will allow us to drive leverage into the P&L.
這將使我們能夠在損益表中發揮槓桿作用。
Last quarter was our best growth quarter in terms of transactions in 6 quarters, so we're starting to get traction there.
就 6 個季度的交易而言,上個季度是我們增長最快的季度,因此我們開始在那裡獲得牽引力。
Secondly, this work around labor and deployment is critical.
其次,這項圍繞勞動力和部署的工作至關重要。
And we're doing a lot of work around how we are deploying labor in our stores, looking at both ends in terms of where we want to invest to drive more throughput and productivity as well as where we need to pull back if we need to.
我們正在圍繞如何在我們的商店部署勞動力做很多工作,從我們想要投資的地方來推動更多的吞吐量和生產力,以及如果我們需要的話我們需要撤回的地方。 .
We are looking at this through the lens of what labor investments are going to be revenue and margin accretive.
我們正在從哪些勞動力投資將增加收入和利潤率的角度來看待這個問題。
And really, given the work that Matt and his team have done with the analytics they now provide us on a per-store basis, we're able to go in and look at it on a per-store basis in a much more detailed view in terms of sales mix, in terms of the channels that are operating in those stores, and then also, just the overall format of the store.
實際上,考慮到 Matt 和他的團隊所做的工作,他們現在為我們提供的是基於每家商店的分析,我們能夠以更詳細的視圖在每家商店的基礎上進行查看在銷售組合方面,在這些商店中運營的渠道方面,以及商店的整體形式。
And then, the other piece that we're looking at and doing a lot of work on beyond the labor and deployment is around COGS and the COGS savings.
然後,除了勞動力和部署之外,我們正在研究並做大量工作的另一部分是圍繞 COGS 和 COGS 節省。
And last, at the analyst conference, we made a big commitment in terms of COGS savings over the course of now between '20 and '21.
最後,在分析師會議上,我們在 20 世紀到 21 年間的 COGS 節省方面做出了重大承諾。
And we're committed to delivering those savings, and we're on track to do so.
我們致力於實現這些節省,而且我們正在按計劃這樣做。
That will continue to drive more leverage in the P&L.
這將繼續推動損益表中的更多槓桿作用。
And then, the last piece is around waste in the stores and how do we manage more effectively waste and then while at the same time, increasing overall availability of our products in our stores so that we can sell more products.
然後,最後一部分是關於商店中的廢物以及我們如何更有效地管理廢物,然後同時增加我們商店中產品的整體可用性,以便我們可以銷售更多產品。
So that's another big piece.
所以這是另一個大塊。
And then, this last area, I would just say, is around how do we continue to rationalize SKUs and look at the number of SKUs that we have in our stores.
然後,最後一個領域,我想說的是,我們如何繼續合理化 SKU 並查看我們商店中的 SKU 數量。
We feel that this is an area of a big opportunity for us.
我們認為這對我們來說是一個巨大機遇的領域。
It creates a big unlock for our stores and our partners, and this falls into the work that we're doing around the streamlined activity in the stores.
它為我們的商店和我們的合作夥伴創造了一個很大的解鎖,這屬於我們圍繞商店中簡化的活動所做的工作。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia from William Blair.
你的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Sharon Zackfia。
Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer
Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer
I guess, a question on the kind of the algorithm going forward.
我想,這是一個關於未來算法類型的問題。
Scott, I appreciate the guidance, specifically for 2018.
斯科特,我感謝您的指導,特別是針對 2018 年的指導。
I guess, longer term with that comp range being 3% to 5%, could you give us an idea of what that 5% what it equates to for earnings growth?
我想,從長期來看,這個補償範圍是 3% 到 5%,你能告訴我們這 5% 對收益增長來說意味著什麼嗎?
And I'm assuming all of these investments or things that are going on in 2018 make that relationship not hold?
我假設所有這些投資或 2018 年發生的事情都會讓這種關係不成立?
And if I'm wrong, if you could correct me.
如果我錯了,如果你能糾正我的話。
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Yes.
是的。
Thanks, Sharon.
謝謝,莎倫。
What I would say is as we exit 2018, we'll be growing earnings per share higher than the range that we gave for 2018.
我要說的是,隨著我們 2018 年的結束,我們的每股收益增長將高於我們為 2018 年設定的範圍。
So we gave 12% to 13%.
所以我們給了12%到13%。
We'll have accelerating profitability as we move throughout the year, and there's 2 big drivers of that.
隨著我們全年的發展,我們的盈利能力將加速增長,這有兩大驅動因素。
The first is the things that John talks about around store operation.
首先是約翰談到的關於商店運營的事情。
That will layer in over time.
隨著時間的推移,這將層層疊加。
And the second big driver is all the things that we're doing around Project Streamline -- what we call Project Streamline, the streamlining and focus of the operations.
第二大驅動因素是我們圍繞 Project Streamline 所做的所有事情——我們稱之為 Project Streamline,即運營的精簡和重點。
The big increment in those activities is around East China and the exit of our Teavana stores, which, as you know, are a drag on earnings.
這些活動的大幅增加是在華東地區和我們的 Teavana 商店的退出,如你所知,這拖累了收入。
And so all of that will help shape our profile.
因此,所有這些都將有助於塑造我們的形象。
To get to your specific question and the way I think about the upper end of the EPS algorithm, if you want to call it that, is if you look at what we did with revenue guidance and comp guidance, is we brought it down a bit and we brought the lower end of our EPS guidance down to 12%.
為了解決您的具體問題以及我對 EPS 算法高端的看法,如果您想這樣稱呼它,那麼如果您看看我們在收入指導和薪酬指導方面所做的工作,我們是否將其降低了一點我們將 EPS 指引的下限降至 12%。
Our old guidance was 15% to 20%.
我們之前的指導是 15% 到 20%。
I would say a similar move down at the high end is probably the way to think about the upper end of that guidance.
我想說的是,在高端進行類似的下調可能是考慮該指導高端的方式。
So as we accelerate all the savings we'll get through streamlining our operations.
因此,隨著我們加速所有的節省,我們將通過簡化我們的運營來獲得。
We bring in East China.
我們把華東引進來。
And if we get additional comp growth, then that would be upside even for the guidance we gave this year.
如果我們獲得額外的補償增長,那麼即使對於我們今年給出的指導,這也將是有利的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from David Tarantino, Robert W. Baird.
你的下一個問題來自 David Tarantino 和 Robert W. Baird。
David E. Tarantino - Associate Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst
David E. Tarantino - Associate Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst
My question is on the comp trends.
我的問題是關於競爭趨勢的。
And first, just a clarification.
首先,澄清一下。
As the check trends or the ticket contribution this quarter was less than what it has been in the past, so could you talk about the factors that drove that, I guess, smaller benefit from the ticket?
由於本季度的支票趨勢或門票貢獻低於過去,所以您能否談談導致門票收益減少的因素?
And then secondly, as you think about the outlook for this year and the 3% to 5% range you provided, I guess, what are the factors that are giving you the most confidence in being able to guide that way, given the most recent quarter was at the low end of that?
其次,當你考慮今年的前景和你提供的 3% 到 5% 的範圍時,我想,鑑於最近的情況,哪些因素讓你最有信心能夠以這種方式進行指導季度處於低端?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Okay.
好的。
David, I'll start and then I'll hand it over to Kevin for the second part.
大衛,我會開始,然後我會把第二部分交給凱文。
So some of the mechanics on ticket, it's important to remember that the order consolidation impact of the change that we had in the Starbucks Rewards program had 2 equal and offsetting impacts you'll recall.
因此,票務上的一些機制,重要的是要記住,我們在星巴克獎勵計劃中所做的更改對訂單合併的影響有 2 個相等且相互抵消的影響,您會記得。
It brought transactions down, but it also brought tickets up as the sort of incentive to split orders went away.
它降低了交易量,但隨著拆分訂單的動機消失,它也帶來了訂單。
And so transactions, as you know, have been depressed over the last 5 quarters because of that and ticket has been higher over the last 5 quarters because of that.
因此,如您所知,過去 5 個季度的交易量因此而低迷,因此過去 5 個季度的票價一直較高。
And this is the first quarter that we fully lapped that impact.
這是我們完全覆蓋這種影響的第一季度。
So that's the first thing.
所以這是第一件事。
The second thing is we've had, for the last few years, 1 to 2 points of pricing that we've taken pretty much every quarter.
第二件事是,在過去的幾年裡,我們幾乎每個季度都有 1 到 2 個定價點。
We were on the lower end of that range this quarter.
本季度我們處於該範圍的低端。
That's pretty much related to timing.
這與時間有很大關係。
There's nothing that we're signaling there.
我們在那裡沒有發出任何信號。
Pricing moves are still taking hold the way that we expect, and we'll continue to lean in where we see opportunities there.
定價走勢仍像我們預期的那樣佔據主導地位,我們將繼續在我們看到機會的地方傾斜。
And then the third thing that we talked about a little bit in prepared remarks is the afternoon daypart.
然後我們在準備好的發言中談到的第三件事是下午的時段。
And what's important to understand about the afternoon daypart is it does have a higher ticket.
關於下午的時段,重要的是要了解它確實有更高的票價。
You get more attach, more multiple beverage ticket.
你得到更多的附加,更多的飲料票。
And obviously, Frappuccino has a little bit higher ticket.
顯然,星冰樂的票價要高一些。
So those are the 3 big pieces.
所以這些是 3 個大塊。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Yes, David.
是的,大衛。
This is Kevin.
這是凱文。
I would just add confidence in terms of that guide for the 3% to 5% comp in FY '18.
我只想增加對 18 財年 3% 至 5% 補償的指南的信心。
I think, first of all, as we look at data and have analyzed the overall U.S. retail restaurant industry, certainly, that has shown very flat comparables, even a little bit negative traffic.
我認為,首先,當我們查看數據並分析整個美國零售餐飲業時,當然,它顯示出非常平坦的可比性,甚至有一點負流量。
And we've consistently outperformed that.
而且我們一直表現出色。
Over the last 2 years, we've consistently sort of been in that range of 3% to 5%.
在過去的兩年裡,我們一直處於 3% 到 5% 的範圍內。
But then I would just comment, as we go into Q1, we have a very solid holiday plan in place.
但我只想評論,當我們進入第一季度時,我們有一個非常可靠的假期計劃。
And the start to this quarter gives me added confidence that the guidance we've given you for FY '18 is not only achievable, but we feel like we've got line of sight to what we've got to execute against, and we're executing against the right priorities and see evidence in every one of those areas that our work is paying off.
本季度的開始讓我更有信心,我們為您提供的 18 財年指導不僅是可以實現的,而且我們覺得我們已經看到了我們必須執行的目標,而且我們' 執行正確的優先事項,並在我們的工作正在取得回報的每個領域中看到證據。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from John Glass, Morgan Stanley.
你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約翰格拉斯。
John Stephenson Glass - MD
John Stephenson Glass - MD
Regarding the investments you're making, you have made over time, we've talked about investment, but it's never been clear.
關於你在做的投資,隨著時間的推移,你已經做了,我們談過投資,但從來沒有說清楚。
Are these just required increases in compensation, for example, at the partner level?
這些是否只是需要增加薪酬,例如,在合作夥伴級別?
How much of this is sort of related to growth?
其中有多少與增長有關?
So Scott, can you just talk about what that investment however you want to break it down was in 2017 and maybe how you can relate that to what the incremental is it going to be in '18 just so we can sort of frame that.
所以斯科特,你能不能談談你想在 2017 年將其分解的投資是什麼,也許你如何將其與 18 年的增量聯繫起來,這樣我們就可以對其進行構建。
And I think you talked about your cost structure was built historically on a 5% comp.
我想你談到過你的成本結構在歷史上是建立在 5% 的基礎上的。
And obviously, that made this year more challenging.
顯然,這讓今年更具挑戰性。
What comp did you build your cost structure off of in 2018?
您在 2018 年建立成本結構的依據是什麼?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Good question.
好問題。
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
In the first part of your question, what I would say is you'll recall that we had $250 million of partner and digital investments in 2017.
在你問題的第一部分,我想說的是你會記得我們在 2017 年有 2.5 億美元的合作夥伴和數字投資。
That's right where we landed.
這就是我們著陸的地方。
The biggest portion of that was related to partner investments, and the biggest portion of that is wage.
其中最大的部分與合作夥伴投資有關,其中最大的部分是工資。
But the vast majority of that wage investment we're making is not mandated.
但我們正在進行的絕大多數工資投資都不是強制性的。
It's not minimum wage driven or mandated by cities or states.
這不是由城市或州推動或強制規定的最低工資。
It's really what we're trying to do to make sure we're investing in our partners in the right way.
這確實是我們正在嘗試做的事情,以確保我們以正確的方式投資於我們的合作夥伴。
And as you know, we have turnover rates that are significantly below everyone else in the industry.
如您所知,我們的離職率明顯低於業內其他公司。
We've seen turnover in the last year come down across every category within our stores, so we know when we get that part right.
我們看到去年我們店內每個品類的營業額都下降了,所以我們知道什麼時候該做對了。
We've seen customer service scores at the highest they've ever been.
我們已經看到客戶服務得分達到了前所未有的最高水平。
Partner experience scores at the highest that they've ever been.
合作夥伴體驗得分達到歷史最高水平。
So we know when we get that right, it pays off for us.
所以我們知道當我們做對時,它會為我們帶來回報。
So the biggest piece is voluntary wage investments, and that will continue.
因此,最大的部分是自願工資投資,而且這種情況將繼續下去。
As we roll into '18, what I will tell you is there'll be a little bit lower dollar amount investment in wage.
當我們進入 18 年時,我要告訴你的是,對工資的美元投資會略有下降。
It's still significant, but it's a little bit lower.
它仍然很重要,但它有點低。
So there's a bit more flow through in the U.S. P&L as a result of a little bit lower wage investment.
因此,由於較低的工資投資,美國損益表的流量有所增加。
And then to your specific question, we built that 12% to 13% EPS growth assuming the lower end of the range.
然後針對您的具體問題,我們假設該範圍的下限為 12% 至 13% 的每股收益增長。
And so we should be able to deliver that at a 3%-plus comp, and that's the way we want it to be shaped.
因此,我們應該能夠以超過 3% 的價格提供它,這就是我們希望塑造它的方式。
And the goal is obviously, with all the things that Kevin talked about on the top line, is to try to beat that.
目標顯然是,凱文在頂線談到的所有事情,就是試圖擊敗它。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays.
你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的杰弗裡伯恩斯坦。
Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director and Senior Research Analyst
Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director and Senior Research Analyst
Just following up on that kind of comp and earnings-type question.
只是跟進那種補償和收益類型的問題。
As I look at the fiscal '18 and the long-term global comp guidance, you're talking about 3% to 5%, and you're talking about EPS long term of 12% plus.
當我看 18 財年和長期全球 comp 指南時,你說的是 3% 到 5%,你說的是 EPS 長期增長 12% 以上。
I just wanted to kind of get the full process around how you arrived at those specifically, especially from a comp perspective, you just did a 3% in fiscal '17.
我只是想了解一下你是如何達到這些目標的完整過程,特別是從補償的角度來看,你在 17 財年只做了 3%。
It seems like it was a 3% in the fiscal fourth quarter, and it's down from kind of mid- to high single digits over the past 5-plus years.
第四財季似乎是 3%,在過去 5 年多的時間裡,它從中高個位數下降。
So just wondering what gives you the confidence to do that as a conservative bar rather than having to deal with kind of questioning at every quarter because you're running on the lower end of that.
所以只是想知道是什麼讓你有信心作為一個保守的酒吧來做這件事,而不是因為你在低端運行而不得不在每個季度處理各種問題。
And I guess, it'd be the same thing for earnings because what you got into 12-plus, but the year just ended, you did 11%.
我想,這對收入來說也是一樣的,因為你進入 12 歲以上,但剛剛結束的一年,你做了 11%。
So it just doesn't seem as if those are necessarily conservative targets.
因此,這些似乎不一定是保守的目標。
So I'm just kind of wondering kind of bigger-picture thought process how you arrived at that versus perhaps setting the bar lower and therefore, making it easier to exceed.
所以我只是有點想知道你是如何達到這個目標的那種更大的思考過程,而不是可能將標准設置得更低,因此更容易超越。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Well, let me start, Jeffrey, the question.
好吧,讓我開始,杰弗裡,這個問題。
First of all, thanks for that.
首先,謝謝你。
I think we go through an entire process.
我認為我們經歷了一個完整的過程。
We build a 5-year strategic plan, and we build a bottoms-up 5-year financial plan from that strategic plan, looking at every geography and understanding the dynamics in each of those markets.
我們制定了一個 5 年戰略計劃,並根據該戰略計劃制定了自下而上的 5 年財務計劃,著眼於每個地區並了解每個市場的動態。
And it's that financial plan that informs us on the growth in terms of new stores.
正是這個財務計劃讓我們了解了新店的增長情況。
It informs us on the same-store comparable growth that we expect in these markets.
它告訴我們我們在這些市場中預期的同店可比增長。
And I think that's, coming out of that strap plan is what drove many of the streamlining activities that you're seeing, where certainly where we look at markets that are slower growth or don't have the opportunity for as much new store growth, clearly, those are markets that are better transitioned to licensed markets, and that's why we've been executing down that path.
而且我認為,從錶帶計劃中脫穎而出是推動您看到的許多精簡活動的原因,當然,在這些活動中,我們著眼於增長放緩或沒有機會獲得盡可能多的新店增長的市場,顯然,這些市場可以更好地過渡到許可市場,這就是我們一直沿著這條路走下去的原因。
The contrast to that then is China, where we see a growth opportunity that we have ahead in China.
與此形成鮮明對比的是中國,我們在中國看到了增長機會。
And we've been in China now 17 or 18 years.
我們現在已經在中國 17 或 18 年了。
And I think if you look at sort of what we've been posting on same-store comparables there, I think China is the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Starbucks.
而且我認為,如果你看一下我們在那裡發布的關於同店比較的內容,我認為中國是星巴克的第二大和增長最快的市場。
It is the second-largest economy in the world.
它是世界第二大經濟體。
It is an economy that will have a growing middle class, doubling from roughly 300 million people to 600 million people.
這是一個將擁有不斷壯大的中產階級的經濟體,從大約 3 億人增加一倍至 6 億人。
And so when we look at the global comp numbers, we look at the balance of the opportunities we have and certainly, 2 powerful growth engines, being the U.S. and China.
因此,當我們查看全球 comp 數字時,我們會查看我們所擁有的機會的平衡,當然還有兩個強大的增長引擎,即美國和中國。
And so I'll start there.
所以我將從那裡開始。
And so if you look then at the U.S., I think if we look at our U.S. data, it shows us that there is overall retail industry disruption that is changing consumer behavior and traffic.
所以如果你再看看美國,我想如果我們看看我們的美國數據,它會告訴我們零售業的整體中斷正在改變消費者的行為和流量。
Data would show that it has had some impact on the overall U.S. retail restaurant sector, which has shown negative traffic here over the last year where we have been showing positive comps, and the traffic that we posted has been above that.
數據將顯示它對整個美國零售餐飲業產生了一些影響,在過去的一年裡,我們一直在顯示積極的競爭,而我們發布的流量高於此。
Now at some point, that turns.
現在在某個時候,情況發生了轉變。
So you'd say, okay, in addition to looking for that number to turn, the initiatives that we've been driving, specifically throughput at peak.
所以你會說,好吧,除了尋找要轉變的數字之外,我們一直在推動的舉措,特別是高峰期的吞吐量。
Now the morning peak is the most important daypart at Starbucks, certainly in the U.S. If you look at the volume that we do.
現在,早高峰是星巴克最重要的一天,當然在美國也是如此。如果你看看我們的工作量。
All the actions that John took you through and the team has been driving have generated demonstrable, measurable progress at peak in this every quarter since we started those initiatives, and it just keeps getting stronger.
自從我們啟動這些計劃以來,John 帶領您完成的所有行動以及團隊一直在推動的所有行動都在每個季度的高峰期產生了可證明的、可衡量的進展,而且它只會變得越來越強大。
We've got a continuous improvement plan there that shows us we are growing throughput at peak and at the same time, we're improving the customer experience.
我們在那裡有一個持續改進計劃,向我們展示了我們正在增加峰值吞吐量,同時,我們正在改善客戶體驗。
So I think that gives us evidence that certainly, we have line of sight to what we need to deliver to be in that comp range in the U.S., and we doubled down in China.
因此,我認為這給了我們證據,可以肯定的是,我們對要在美國的競爭範圍內需要提供的東西有一定的了解,而且我們在中國加倍努力。
And I think the combination of those 2 things give us the confidence that a 3% to 5% comp growth for the next -- for the long -- those long-term guidance is the appropriate number to set it out.
而且我認為這兩件事的結合讓我們相信下一個 - 長期 - 3% 到 5% 的複合增長率 - 這些長期指導是設定它的適當數字。
And from there, I think then the rest of the numbers fall into place.
從那裡開始,我認為其餘的數字就會到位。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Sara Senatore from Bernstein.
你的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Sara Senatore。
Sara Harkavy Senatore - Senior Research Analyst
Sara Harkavy Senatore - Senior Research Analyst
Having some technical difficulties.
有一些技術上的困難。
I'm going to let my associate ask the question and Steph, can you ask?
我要讓我的同事提問,斯蒂芬,你能問嗎?
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Okay.
好的。
So you seemed very positive on the rollout in -- or actually in Mobile Order and Pay in Japan.
所以你似乎對在日本推出移動訂購和支付非常積極。
And yet based off the CAP comp it remains kind of a drag on CAP comps.
然而,基於 CAP comp,它仍然是 CAP comp 的拖累。
now that you've taken the business and turnaround, does it make sense to think about licensing it again?
既然你已經接管了業務並扭虧為盈,考慮再次授權它是否有意義?
John Culver - President of International & Channels
John Culver - President of International & Channels
This is John.
這是約翰。
We have no intention of licensing the Japan business.
我們無意授權日本業務。
We made a significant investment to buy that business back because we believe in the long-term growth opportunity in that market.
我們進行了大量投資以回購該業務,因為我們相信該市場的長期增長機會。
We now operate 1,300 stores there across all prefectures.
我們現在在所有縣都經營著 1,300 家商店。
We opened a record number of 90 stores this year, and the new store performance continues to be very strong.
我們今年新開了 90 家門店,新店業績繼續保持強勁勢頭。
And when you dig up underneath Japan and really the numbers around Japan, Scott talked about the afternoon softness that we saw.
當你深入挖掘日本下方以及日本各地的實際數字時,斯科特談到了我們看到的下午的柔軟度。
That was particularly related to our blended beverage LTOs that account for about -- over 40% of sales during the summer period.
這與我們的混合飲料 LTO 尤其相關,後者約佔夏季銷售額的 40% 以上。
But when you go beyond that and look at our core business of Espresso, very strong performance.
但當你超越這一點,看看我們的 Espresso 核心業務時,就會發現非常強勁的表現。
Tea, very strong performance.
茶,表現力很強。
Food, strong growth there.
食品,那裡增長強勁。
And we saw momentum in the quarter, particularly in September, build.
我們看到了本季度的勢頭,尤其是在 9 月份。
We launched MSR in Japan in the middle of September.
我們於 9 月中旬在日本推出了 MSR。
We now have nearly 2 million members on the rewards program, and we're excited with the opportunity that the Digital Flywheel presents for us there.
我們現在有近 200 萬會員參加獎勵計劃,我們很高興 Digital Flywheel 為我們提供了機會。
And then when you look at in terms of are we growing our share in Japan given our store growth, given our overall organic growth, we are outpacing the competition and actually taking share in that market.
然後當你看看我們在日本的份額是否隨著我們的商店增長而增長,考慮到我們的整體有機增長,我們正在超越競爭對手並實際上在該市場佔據份額。
So we are bullish on Japan, and we have a long-term commitment to that market.
所以我們看好日本,我們對該市場有長期承諾。
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
And I would just add a couple of financial points to that.
我只想添加幾個財務點。
If you go back to the deal model that we put together for Japan a few years ago, we're actually ahead of that deal model on every measure, except for comps.
如果你回到幾年前我們為日本製定的交易模式,我們實際上在每一項措施上都領先於該交易模式,除了補償。
So revenue is ahead.
所以收入是領先的。
Profitability is ahead.
盈利能力領先。
Profit margin is ahead, and that's because of the performance of new stores and the overall performance and strength of the market since we purchased.
利潤率領先,這是因為新店的表現以及自我們購買以來市場的整體表現和實力。
So we're trying to make sure we don't overfocus on comps.
所以我們正在努力確保我們不會過分關注伴奏。
We understand it's a challenge in Japan.
我們知道這在日本是一個挑戰。
But once we work our way through this blended mix issue, then you're going to see that profitability come through much more clearly.
但是,一旦我們解決了這個混合問題,您就會更清楚地看到盈利能力。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from David Palmer from RBC Capital Markets.
您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 David Palmer。
David Sterling Palmer - MD of Food and Restaurants and Consumer Analysts
David Sterling Palmer - MD of Food and Restaurants and Consumer Analysts
And just a quick clarification.
并快速澄清一下。
I think there's some confusion in this, but could you just touch on, Scott, the profit growth and tax assumptions embedded in your fiscal '18 guidance?
我認為這有些混亂,但斯科特,你能否談談你的 18 財年指南中嵌入的利潤增長和稅收假設?
And then just separately, a follow-up on initiatives that give you the most confidence that 3% would be the low point for comps.
然後單獨跟進一些舉措,讓您最有信心 3% 將是 comp 的低點。
You talked about throughput and then you touched on a variety of other things, including things that were touched on, the big 3 digital, food and beverage.
你談到了吞吐量,然後談到了其他各種事情,包括提到的事情,三大數字、食品和飲料。
If you had a sort of rank order of the things that give you the most confidence or you think will be the most meaningful beyond the throughput initiatives, what do you think those would be?
如果您對最有信心的事情進行排序,或者您認為除了吞吐量計劃之外最有意義的事情,您認為這些事情會是什麼?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Sure, David.
當然,大衛。
So the overall profit growth, EPS growth on a non-GAAP basis will be 12% to 13%.
因此,整體利潤增長,非公認會計原則基礎上的每股收益增長將為 12% 至 13%。
I did say the tax rate will be 27%, but that's really impacted by the transaction in East China, assuming it closes.
我確實說過稅率將是 27%,但這確實受到華東交易的影響,假設它關閉。
So we don't have any assumption of any change in the actual tax regulation in any of our major economies, particularly in the U.S. It pretty much assumes a status quo, but it's lower next year, specifically because of that transaction in East China, assuming it closes.
因此,我們沒有任何假設我們任何主要經濟體的實際稅收法規會發生任何變化,特別是在美國。它幾乎假設現狀,但明年會更低,特別是因為華東的那筆交易,假設它關閉。
And I think on the strength in COGS, I'll hand it over to Kevin.
而且我認為在 COGS 方面的實力,我會把它交給凱文。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Yes, David.
是的,大衛。
In terms of the things that I would stack rank around the initiatives that have, I think, the most impact on comp to those comps, number one would be throughput at peak.
就我認為對 comp 影響最大的舉措而言,我認為排名第一的是峰值吞吐量。
That is the most important daypart.
那是最重要的一天。
And with the work that's been done and the road map continues to improvement ahead, we have never been stronger.
隨著已經完成的工作和未來路線圖的不斷改進,我們從未如此強大。
And so we grow at peak, we grow comps.
所以我們在高峰期成長,我們成長。
Number two, digital.
第二,數字。
It's predictable.
這是可以預見的。
It's powerful, and we are widening the aperture of it by opening up Mobile Order and Pay to more customers.
它功能強大,我們正在通過向更多客戶開放移動訂單和支付來擴大它的應用範圍。
That will be another powerful driver confidence.
那將是另一個強大的驅動信心。
And the third is food.
第三是食物。
And with food, we continue to make very good progress.
在食物方面,我們繼續取得很好的進展。
It contributes to that.
它為此做出了貢獻。
We're now over 21% of the mix and good reception on what we're getting with the lunch daypart, good performance in the morning.
我們現在已經完成了超過 21% 的組合,並且我們在午餐時段獲得了很好的接待,早上的表現也很好。
And on the continued innovation around beverage.
以及圍繞飲料的持續創新。
So I think food and beverage innovation pipeline we have is just going to continue to crank.
所以我認為我們擁有的食品和飲料創新渠道將繼續發展。
But I think added to that, the throughput at peak and the digital are going to be key drivers.
但我認為除此之外,峰值吞吐量和數字化將成為關鍵驅動因素。
And all those give us confidence.
所有這些都給了我們信心。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Matthew DiFrisco, Guggenheim Securities.
您的下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Matthew DiFrisco。
Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst
Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst
One clarification and then a question.
一個澄清,然後一個問題。
The GAAP tax rate is 27%, and you're not implying that 27% is part of the 12% to 13% algorithm for operating income or EPS growth?
GAAP 稅率是 27%,你不是在暗示 27% 是營業收入或 EPS 增長 12% 到 13% 算法的一部分嗎?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
That is correct.
那是對的。
Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst
Matthew James DiFrisco - Director and Senior Equity Analyst
Okay.
好的。
So it's more comparable, the tax rate.
所以它更具可比性,稅率。
Understood.
明白了。
And then was share repurchases included in that?
然後股票回購包括在其中嗎?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Share repurchases is included in that.
其中包括股票回購。
And in fact, one of the reasons we have accelerating profitability as we move through the year is share repurchases will help earnings per share a little bit more each quarter.
事實上,我們在這一年中加速盈利的原因之一是股票回購將有助於每個季度的每股收益增加一點。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Karen Holthouse from Goldman Sachs.
你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Karen Holthouse。
Karen Holthouse - VP
Karen Holthouse - VP
Quick housekeeping and then an actual question.
快速整理,然後是實際問題。
Looking at the unit growth guidance in CAP, can you give a sense of how we should think about the breakdown between company and licensed maybe this year and then longer term, when you're thinking about the post acquiring or your post the business mix changes there?
查看 CAP 中的單位增長指南,當您考慮收購後或業務組合變化時,您能否了解我們應該如何考慮公司和許可公司之間的細分,也許是今年,然後是更長期那裡?
And then thinking about the time line of some of the things you mentioned as a driver of excitement, my understanding was that a broader expansion of the accessibility to Mobile Order and Pay or this digital relationship was going to be more of a 2019 initiative.
然後想想你提到的一些令人興奮的事情的時間線,我的理解是,更廣泛地擴展移動訂單和支付的可訪問性或這種數字關係將更像是 2019 年的一項舉措。
Is that something that could actually start to benefit in fiscal '18?
這真的可以在 18 財年開始受益嗎?
And are you seeing any earlier benefits from just the more streamlined sign-up process within the existing stored value platform?
您是否看到了現有儲值平台中更簡化的註冊流程帶來的任何早期好處?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Yes.
是的。
Thanks, Karen.
謝謝,凱倫。
We didn't give the ownership split in CAP on purpose because of the pending acquisition.
由於懸而未決的收購,我們沒有故意在 CAP 中進行所有權分割。
It was really hard to memo we [don't have regulatory approval] exactly how the stores are going to open in 100% when we were going to close.
真的很難記住我們 [沒有監管部門的批准] 商店將如何在我們要關閉時 100% 開張。
But I'll answer the second part of your question because I think it was really around what's it going to be going forward.
但我會回答你問題的第二部分,因為我認為這真的是圍繞著未來會發生什麼。
So I think we said 100 stores in CAP, 600 stores in China.
所以我想我們說 CAP 有 100 家門店,中國有 600 家門店。
If the deal closes, those 600 stores would obviously be all company-owned.
如果交易完成,那 600 家商店顯然將全部歸公司所有。
So you're looking at about 50-50 company-owned and licensed as we move through time.
所以隨著時間的推移,你會看到大約 50-50 家公司擁有和獲得許可。
And I think I'll kick the second question over to Matt.
我想我會把第二個問題交給馬特。
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
Sure.
當然。
Thanks for the question there.
感謝那裡的問題。
With regard to Mobile Order and Pay, we have found a way to accelerate versus our original intentions.
關於 Mobile Order and Pay,我們已經找到了一種方法來加速我們的初衷。
Now I want to point out that it's not a [goal to] immediately.
現在我想指出,這不是立即的[目標]。
We'll be ramping into it across the year, so it's one of the reasons why we have additional confidence that our business will be gaining momentum throughout the year, number one.
我們將在這一年中逐步推進,所以這是我們更有信心我們的業務將在全年獲得增長勢頭的原因之一,排名第一。
And with regard to the sign-up, we have, in fact, started to see ourselves beat the typical seasonality with regard to customer acquisition.
關於註冊,事實上,我們已經開始發現自己在客戶獲取方面已經超過了典型的季節性。
We've been talking about the fact that we'll be leaning in there, and that is precisely what we are doing.
我們一直在談論我們將靠在那裡的事實,而這正是我們正在做的。
So if you've signed up for Mobile Order and Pay recently, you've noticed that the process has gotten better.
因此,如果您最近註冊了 Mobile Order and Pay,您會注意到流程變得更好了。
And we are, in recent weeks and months, starting to see that in our business.
最近幾周和幾個月,我們開始在我們的業務中看到這一點。
You are going to continue to see us lean in across this year on acquiring digital relationships, first of all, within Starbucks Rewards, but then via other means, including Mobile Order and Pay that doesn't require a store value card.
你將在今年繼續看到我們傾向於獲取數字關係,首先是在星巴克獎勵中,然後通過其他方式,包括不需要儲值卡的移動訂單和支付。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Brett Levy, Deutsche Bank.
你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brett Levy。
Brett Saul Levy - VP
Brett Saul Levy - VP
I was just curious, you were -- with respect to the Mobile Order and Pay, you had mentioned...
我只是好奇,你是——關於移動訂單和支付,你提到過……
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
I think we lost Brett.
我想我們失去了布雷特。
Operator
Operator
Yes, your next question comes from Gregory Badishkanian Citigroup.
是的,你的下一個問題來自 Gregory Badishkanian Citigroup。
Gregory R Badishkanian - MD and Senior Analyst
Gregory R Badishkanian - MD and Senior Analyst
So it sounds like the U.S. same-store sales should be around 3% to 5% from your comments.
所以從你的評論來看,美國同店銷售額應該在 3% 到 5% 左右。
So I just want to make sure that, that I kind of read into that correctly.
所以我只想確保我正確地理解了這一點。
And then what are you assuming the competitive environment as well as the macro environment and the headwinds mentioned in your prepared remarks, do you assume that some of those (inaudible) over the coming year or even for your longer term to achieve that long-term target?
然後你假設競爭環境以及宏觀環境和你準備好的發言中提到的逆風,你是否假設其中一些(聽不清)在未來一年甚至更長期實現長期目標目標?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
I would say if you do the math on our total company comps, they tend to follow very, very closely with the U.S. business just given the size.
我想說的是,如果你對我們公司的總薪酬進行數學計算,他們往往會非常非常密切地關注美國企業的規模。
And on the second part, maybe I'll turn it over to Kevin.
在第二部分,也許我會把它交給凱文。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Yes.
是的。
I think on the second part, when we look at the data that we study, we look at a lot of different sources of data, and I'm sure many of them are sources that you use as well.
我認為在第二部分,當我們查看我們研究的數據時,我們會查看很多不同的數據來源,我相信其中很多也是您使用的來源。
A variety of industry studies, credit card data and other research to track comps and the away-from-home restaurant industry.
各種行業研究、信用卡數據和其他研究,以跟踪 comps 和離家餐飲業。
I think what is shown is over the last year, it's been relatively flat with slightly negative transactions.
我認為所顯示的是去年,它相對平穩,交易略有負數。
And we know that over time, that number continues to grow.
我們知道,隨著時間的推移,這個數字會繼續增長。
And so at some point, that turns.
所以在某個時候,情況發生了轉變。
But I think we see some evidence near term that that's beginning to happen, but it's premature to call that.
但我認為我們近期會看到一些證據表明這種情況正在開始發生,但現在就這麼說還為時過早。
I don't know, Matt, if you want to add anywhere in terms of the analysis on this.
我不知道,馬特,你是否想在分析方面添加任何內容。
But I think the long-term prospect of -- or assumption we made when we looked at the 3% to 5% comps that we set in the U.S. was that, that number was going to stay at that point.
但我認為,當我們查看我們在美國設定的 3% 至 5% 的補償時,我們的長期前景或假設是,這個數字將保持在那個點上。
And that gave us the confidence that this guide gave us upside in the U.S. performance.
這讓我們相信,這份指南讓我們在美國的表現上有優勢。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Dennis Geiger, UBS.
你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Dennis Geiger。
Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants
Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants
I just wanted to circle back on that loyalty program.
我只是想回到那個忠誠度計劃。
Just any thoughts how relevant that still will be to grow that program, particularly if Mobile Order and Pay doesn't require it?
只是想一想這對發展該程序仍然有多大意義,特別是如果移動訂單和支付不需要它?
I guess, just building on that, do you have good data or a sense for how big the pool of potential customers can be for that program, given we've kind of been in this range for a few quarters now?
我想,僅在此基礎上,鑑於我們已經在這個範圍內停留了幾個季度,您是否有良好的數據或對該計劃的潛在客戶群有多大的感覺?
And just anything you could add on this leaning in, certainly linking the card directly, your expectations for that.
您可以在此基礎上添加任何內容,當然可以直接鏈接卡片,您對此的期望。
Just any more detail on growing that base given how strong the performance of that member program is.
鑑於該會員計劃的表現有多強勁,請提供更多有關擴大該基礎的詳細信息。
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
Matt Ryan here again on that one.
Matt Ryan 又來了。
We are extremely optimistic about the program as well as growing digital relationships outside of the program.
我們對該計劃以及該計劃之外不斷發展的數字關係非常樂觀。
And we have opened up the aperture, if you will, to explore additional ways of acquiring digital relationships.
如果您願意,我們已經打開了大門,探索獲得數字關係的其他方式。
I think a couple things that are really important to look at.
我認為有幾件事非常重要。
We have seen 11% year on growth in our membership.
我們的會員數量每年增長 11%。
And recently, we started to see an uptick because of the improvements to sign on that we put into place.
最近,由於我們對簽署進行了改進,我們開始看到增長。
But the even more impressive metric is we have seen from members 8% year-on-year growth.
但更令人印象深刻的指標是我們從會員那裡看到了 8% 的同比增長。
That is a function of a couple of things.
這是幾件事的函數。
It is a function of Mobile Order and Pay.
它是移動訂單和支付的功能。
But even more important has been the use of personalization, the customized offers and communications we put in people's hands.
但更重要的是個性化的使用,即我們提供給人們的定制產品和通訊。
We know that when we can talk to our customers through our own channels like our app, like e-mail, we can get a terrific response out of our customers.
我們知道,當我們可以通過我們自己的渠道(例如我們的應用程序,例如電子郵件)與客戶交談時,我們可以從客戶那裡得到很好的回應。
That's -- if you want to think about it, 8% comp from our members this year.
那就是——如果你想考慮的話,今年我們的會員有 8% 的報酬。
And as we expand the number of people we bring into our digital fold, both inside the program and outside of the program, we see a great deal of upside.
隨著我們將更多人帶入我們的數字領域,無論是在計劃內還是計劃外,我們都看到了很大的好處。
Just as a reminder, we have 75 million unique customers coming through our store.
提醒一下,我們有 7500 萬獨特的顧客光顧我們的商店。
And right now, we're counting 13.3 million of them signed up for Starbucks Rewards.
而現在,我們統計其中有 1330 萬人註冊了星巴克獎勵計劃。
There is a lot of upside there.
那裡有很多好處。
And even when you sign up people who are further down the food chain who are not as engaged with Starbucks, we see tremendous incrementality when they do become directly engaged with us.
甚至當你簽下食物鏈下游的人時,他們與星巴克的互動程度不高,當他們直接與我們互動時,我們也會看到巨大的增量。
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
And I would just add, Dennis, to Matt's comments on in the U.S, specifically around Mobile Order and Pay the impact that's having, we ended the quarter at 10% of transactions were Mobile Order and Pay.
丹尼斯,我想補充一下馬特在美國的評論,特別是圍繞移動訂單和支付所產生的影響,我們在本季度結束時有 10% 的交易是移動訂單和支付。
And actually accelerated through the quarter where we exited the quarter at 11%.
實際上在我們以 11% 的速度退出本季度的那個季度加速了。
So these digital relationships and the ability to continue to bring customers into the fold is critical.
因此,這些數字關係以及繼續吸引客戶的能力至關重要。
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
Matthew Ryan - Global Chief Strategy Officer and EVP
And just to pile on there, please bear with me, I think it's important to recognize that we had turned off marketing for Mobile Order and Pay for a good while because we were focused on getting the operations right.
只是繼續努力,請耐心等待,我認為重要的是要認識到我們已經關閉了移動訂單和支付的營銷很長一段時間,因為我們專注於使運營正確。
It was just toward the end of the quarter that we were able to turn it back on, hence the acceleration up to 11% that John just mentioned.
就在本季度末,我們才能夠重新啟動它,因此約翰剛才提到的加速度高達 11%。
So we're very optimistic about Mobile Order and Pay.
所以我們非常看好Mobile Order and Pay。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brett Levy from Deutsche Bank.
你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brett Levy。
Brett Saul Levy - VP
Brett Saul Levy - VP
At least we'll try this time.
至少這次我們會努力。
I'm not quite as good as you guys are.
我沒有你們那麼好。
If you could share a little bit more color on what you're looking at in terms of the capital plans and leverage, how you're thinking about the buybacks, should we assume that this will just be open market opportunistic?
如果你能在資本計劃和槓桿方面分享更多關於你正在看的東西的顏色,你是如何考慮回購的,我們是否應該假設這只是公開市場機會主義?
Will you consider things like ASRs out there?
你會考慮像 ASR 這樣的東西嗎?
And should we think about this as a constant steady-state, pretty seasonal on a quarterly basis?
我們是否應該將其視為一個恆定的穩定狀態,每個季度都具有相當的季節性?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的問題。
It will be front-end loaded a bit in 2018 and within 2018 in the first quarter.
2018 年和 2018 年第一季度會前端加載一點。
So if you look at that $15 billion, it's definitely ratably over the 3 years, but a little bit more in 2018 and a little bit more early in the quarter.
因此,如果你看一下這 150 億美元,它肯定是 3 年內的比例,但在 2018 年會多一點,在本季度初會多一點。
We don't plan to use an ASR right now, but that's a tool that we will use if we want to access the market and take the shares out in a large chunk.
我們現在不打算使用 ASR,但如果我們想要進入市場並大量取出股票,我們將使用該工具。
But right now, it'll be opportunistic open market.
但現在,這將是機會主義的公開市場。
And we've done some back testing, and we actually performed a better than ASR using that.
我們已經進行了一些回溯測試,實際上我們的表現比使用它的 ASR 更好。
The other thing I would just make sure you understand is the vast majority of that $15 billion will actually come from cash flow in the business.
我想確保你明白的另一件事是,這 150 億美元中的絕大部分實際上將來自企業的現金流。
So we will increase that.
所以我們會增加它。
We will increase leverage, but the biggest source of that over 3 years is just the strong operating cash flow within the business.
我們將提高槓桿率,但 3 年來最大的來源只是企業內部強勁的經營現金流。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Nicole Miller, Piper Jaffray.
您的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Nicole Miller。
Nicole Miller Regan - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Nicole Miller Regan - MD and Senior Research Analyst
I want to ask about Channel Development.
我想問一下渠道開發。
And I was wondering if I was calculating this correctly, I think the operating margin is a significant CAP region.
我想知道我是否計算正確,我認為營業利潤率是一個重要的 CAP 區域。
So do you see that as a powerful growth engine as well?
那麼您是否也將其視為強大的增長引擎?
And related to that, could COGS inflation positively impact the top line next year?
與此相關的是,COGS 通脹能否對明年的收入產生積極影響?
And then just a very loose follow-on, if I may.
然後只是一個非常鬆散的後續行動,如果可以的話。
You give some modeling suggestions around removing TAZO and what's the plan for those proceeds?
你給出了一些關於移除 TAZO 的建模建議,這些收益的計劃是什麼?
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
I'll take the first part, and I'll turn the second piece over to Scott to answer it.
我將負責第一部分,我將把第二部分交給 Scott 來回答。
We remain very bullish on the opportunity that Channel Development presents for us and see it as a continued growth engine.
我們仍然非常看好渠道開發為我們帶來的機會,並將其視為持續增長的引擎。
It is a $2 billion business this past year and the margins up near 48% overall.
去年這是一項價值 20 億美元的業務,整體利潤率增長了近 48%。
In the quarter, we grew top line 8%, which is great, but more importantly is the share gains that we're seeing, both across K-Cup as well as packaged coffee.
在本季度,我們的收入增長了 8%,這很好,但更重要的是我們看到的份額增長,包括 K-Cup 和包裝咖啡。
And when you look at our share growth, it's 2x as fast as the overall category growth.
當您查看我們的份額增長時,它是整體類別增長速度的 2 倍。
So if you remember back to Investor Day, we shared that we felt that the overall grocery category for coffee would decelerate.
因此,如果您還記得回到投資者日,我們分享了我們認為咖啡的整體雜貨類別將會減速。
We've seen that, but we continue to capture more than our fair share of the share growth in premium coffee and packaged coffee overall.
我們已經看到了這一點,但我們繼續在優質咖啡和整體包裝咖啡的份額增長中獲得超過我們公平份額的份額。
K-Cups, we're the #1 brand with a 16 -- over 16 share.
K-Cups,我們是排名第一的品牌,擁有 16 - 超過 16 的份額。
Our brand, Starbucks, grew 16x the rate of the category and 2x our nearest competitor in the quarter.
我們的品牌星巴克在本季度的增長率是該類別的 16 倍,是我們最接近的競爭對手的 2 倍。
In total, Starbucks, including SPC, grew 50% faster than any branded coffee company.
總的來說,包括 SPC 在內的星巴克的增長速度比任何品牌咖啡公司都快 50%。
So clearly, Channel Development is a growth engine.
很明顯,渠道開發是一個增長引擎。
We are very optimistic about the future not only in the U.S., but then also when you look at international.
我們不僅對美國的未來非常樂觀,而且對國際市場的未來也非常樂觀。
We've got the Anheuser-Busch relationship with Teavana.
我們與 Teavana 建立了 Anheuser-Busch 關係。
We're going to double down on Teavana now in channels and launch RTD nationally.
我們現在將在渠道中加大對 Teavana 的投入,並在全國推出 RTD。
And then also, we'll be launching Teavana sachets down the aisle later this year, and so we're excited about that.
然後,我們將在今年晚些時候在過道上推出 Teavana 小袋,因此我們對此感到很興奮。
So feel very good about the business.
所以對業務感覺非常好。
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
And on the question on proceeds, Nicole, I think what I would say is if you look at the broad set of activities that Kevin talked about around streamlining our operations, it includes selling our Taiwan market, licensing our Singapore market, licensing our Germany market a little over a year ago, selling TAZO and exiting a couple other pieces of our business.
關於收益的問題,妮可,我想我要說的是,如果你看看凱文談到的圍繞精簡我們的運營的廣泛活動,它包括出售我們的台灣市場,許可我們的新加坡市場,許可我們的德國市場一年多以前,我們出售了 TAZO 並退出了我們的其他幾項業務。
All of those businesses had lower levels of returns and lower profit and revenue growth rates than the businesses we're investing in, and the biggest one talk about is obviously East China.
所有這些業務的回報水平、利潤和收入增長率都低於我們正在投資的業務,而最受關注的顯然是華東地區。
So if you add up the proceeds in all 4 of those transactions, it paid for a material portion of East China.
因此,如果將所有 4 筆交易的收益加起來,它就支付了華東地區的重要部分。
And the returns and growth rate, obviously, for us in China, if you look at the numbers, we just posted this quarter, are significantly higher.
顯然,對於我們在中國的回報率和增長率,如果你看一下我們本季度剛剛公佈的數字,要高得多。
So that's how we're thinking about it.
這就是我們考慮的方式。
We'll continue to evaluate that as we move forward.
我們將在前進的過程中繼續對其進行評估。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Andrew Charles, Cowen and Company.
您的下一個問題來自 Andrew Charles, Cowen and Company。
Andrew Michael Charles - VP
Andrew Michael Charles - VP
Just to play devil's advocate, why not accelerate the U.S. store model, since this is the biggest piece to improving throughput, accelerating the role of Nitro Cold Brew.
唱反調,為什麼不加速美國商店模式,因為這是提高吞吐量的最大部分,加速 Nitro Cold Brew 的作用。
I realize this is going to be capital-intensive, but provided you expect the ROIC was greater than the 25%-plus target and give greater visibility on U.S. comps, why not?
我意識到這將是資本密集型的,但如果您預計 ROIC 高於 25% 以上的目標,並提高美國公司的知名度,為什麼不呢?
And also just one clarification, were beverage comps in the quarter, were they 1% or flat in 4Q when you include the drag from Frappuccino and hurricanes?
還有一個澄清,當你包括星冰樂和颶風的拖累時,本季度的飲料價格是 1% 還是持平?
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
Kevin R. Johnson - CEO, President & Director
John, you want to start with the renovation?
約翰,你想從裝修開始嗎?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes, I think for us, we continue to focus on our new stores and obviously, existing stores in terms of the renovations.
是的,我認為對我們來說,我們繼續專注於我們的新店,顯然,在翻新方面,現有商店。
And as we have innovation to bring into those stores, we are planning the capital in order to go in and renovate stores.
由於我們有創新可以帶入這些商店,我們正在規劃資金以進入和翻新商店。
So Nitro Cold Brew is a great example.
所以 Nitro Cold Brew 就是一個很好的例子。
We have it right now in approximately 500 stores across the U.S., and we're seeing good growth from that.
我們現在在美國大約 500 家商店都有它,我們看到了良好的增長。
We have plans to continue to monitor that and continue to grow it.
我們計劃繼續監控並繼續發展它。
In addition, we are also looking at other innovation that we're going to be bringing into the stores to drive the same-store sales.
此外,我們還在研究將要引入商店以推動同店銷售的其他創新。
Kevin talked about plant-based beverages and alternatives.
凱文談到了植物性飲料和替代品。
That is a big area of opportunity for us, and our customers are asking for it.
這對我們來說是一個很大的機會領域,我們的客戶正在要求它。
We're also seeing very strong growth as it relates to iced and refreshments.
我們也看到了非常強勁的增長,因為它與冰鎮和茶點有關。
Iced and refreshments in the quarter, Iced Espresso grew 15% and refreshment grew 24%.
本季度的冰鎮和茶點,冰濃縮咖啡增長 15%,茶點增長 24%。
So iced in that area of the business presents a big opportunity.
因此,冰在該業務領域提供了一個巨大的機會。
And then the last area is how do we continue to capture this opportunity that we're seeing on food and the attach rate that we're seeing.
然後最後一個領域是我們如何繼續抓住我們在食品和我們看到的附加率上看到的這個機會。
In the quarter, we grew food 15% year-over-year, and food now is 21% of the overall mix of what we're selling through our U.S. stores.
在本季度,我們的食品產量同比增長 15%,食品現在占我們通過美國商店銷售的整體產品組合的 21%。
We're seeing good strong growth on breakfast sandwiches.
我們看到早餐三明治的強勁增長。
We're seeing good strong growth on Sous Vide Egg Bites.
我們看到 Sous Vide Egg Bites 的強勁增長。
We now have that available in all our stores across the U.S. And then the last areas in the protein bistro boxes and the impact that those are having.
我們現在在全美所有商店都提供這種產品,然後是蛋白質小酒館盒中的最后區域以及這些區域所產生的影響。
So we remain bullish on the existing stores and continue to drive more innovation into it, whether that is related to coffee, whether that's related to food or whether that's related to the digital experience.
因此,我們仍然看好現有商店,並繼續推動更多創新,無論是與咖啡有關,與食品有關,還是與數字體驗有關。
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
And just to get to the last part of your question, yes, we had a point of beverage comp, 2 points of food comp.
只是為了回答你問題的最後一部分,是的,我們有一個飲料補償點,2 個食物補償點。
And I talked a little bit about the mix challenge.
我談到了一些關於混合挑戰的問題。
It's really an opportunity for us on beverage.
這對我們飲料來說真的是一個機會。
John talked a lot about the things of that we see to drive additional beverage at comps, but the mix impact on COGS was really not food cost issue but really an opportunity around additional beverage comps.
John 談了很多關於我們看到的在 comps 中推動額外飲料的事情,但對 COGS 的混合影響實際上不是食品成本問題,而是圍繞額外飲料 comps 的真正機會。
And as we move into the new year, we've got lots of plans to try to accelerate that.
隨著我們進入新的一年,我們有很多計劃來加速這一進程。
Operator
Operator
The last question comes from the line of Jason West from Credit Suisse.
最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jason West。
Jason Taylor West - Senior Analyst
Jason Taylor West - Senior Analyst
Just a couple clarifications and a question.
只是一些澄清和一個問題。
First, where was the $50 million donation in the P&L?
首先,損益表中的 5000 萬美元捐贈在哪裡?
And then Scott, I think you said you expect high single-digit revenue growth this year including the China deal.
然後斯科特,我想你說過你預計今年包括中國交易在內的高個位數收入增長。
I just want to confirm that.
我只是想確認一下。
And then the bigger question was the margins in the Americas segment were down several hundred basis points in the quarter.
然後更大的問題是美洲部分的利潤率在本季度下降了數百個基點。
Just the guidance of up margins in that segment this coming year, can you talk about what's going to change there versus what we just saw in the last few quarters really?
只是來年該細分市場利潤率上升的指導,你能談談那裡會發生什麼變化與我們在過去幾個季度看到的情況相比嗎?
Scott Maw
Scott Maw
Yes.
是的。
So the foundation donation was in G&A expense.
所以基金會捐贈是在 G&A 費用中。
The impact of East China is not in that high single-digit number.
華東地區的影響並不在那個高個位數。
It's really in that 2 to 3 additional points that I talked about, which is the net of selling TAZO, licensing Taiwan and buying East China, all of those puts and takes we think add 2 to 3 points on top of that.
這真的是我談到的 2 到 3 個額外點,即銷售 TAZO、授權台灣和購買華東地區的淨額,我們認為所有這些看跌期權和收購點在此基礎上增加 2 到 3 個點。
And then the acceleration in the U.S. business.
然後是美國業務的加速發展。
John really talked about it, but it's important.
John 確實談到了它,但這很重要。
So in this quarter, we had -- it was among the highest quarters we've had since we started the significant U.S. partner investments, the impact on margin this quarter.
因此,在本季度,我們擁有 - 這是自我們開始對美國合作夥伴進行重大投資以來我們擁有的最高季度之一,本季度對利潤率的影響。
I think we called it out as 130 basis points.
我認為我們將其稱為 130 個基點。
There was also about 40 basis points of impact from the storm and then 90 basis points of mix.
風暴還有大約 40 個基點的影響,然後是 90 個基點的混合影響。
And again, I talked about the opportunity we have in beverage.
再一次,我談到了我們在飲料方面的機會。
As we look forward and we look at a slight margin expansion, frankly, as early as Q1, it's really those things that John talked about that will drive that.
當我們展望未來時,我們看到利潤率略有擴張,坦率地說,早在第一季度,約翰談到的那些事情確實會推動這一點。
Yes, some opportunity on the top line, but really going after waste in the middle of the P&L, going after optimized labor.
是的,頂線有一些機會,但真正追求的是損益中間的浪費,追求優化的勞動力。
When we say optimized labor, those stores that need more labor to drive additional revenue and those stores that might have a little bit too much labor, there might be an opportunity to redeploy.
當我們說優化勞動力時,那些需要更多勞動力來推動額外收入的商店以及那些勞動力可能有點過多的商店,可能會有重新部署的機會。
So all of those things are focused at driving additional margin.
因此,所有這些事情都集中在推動額外的利潤率上。
A little bit lower partner investments help year-over-year, but it's really about getting after the middle of the P&L.
略低一點的合作夥伴投資同比有所幫助,但這實際上是為了追求損益的中間部分。
Operator
Operator
I will now turn the call over to Mr. Shaw for his closing remarks.
我現在將把電話轉給肖先生作結束語。
Thomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
Yes.
是的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Before closing today's call, we want to give you visibility our investor outreach calendar for 2018, specifically related to 2 events that we have tentatively planned.
在結束今天的電話會議之前,我們想讓您了解一下我們 2018 年的投資者外展日曆,特別是與我們暫定計劃的 2 項活動相關的活動。
During the week of May 14, we will be in Shanghai for our China investor tour, which will include an experience at our Shanghai Roastery, presentations from our local leadership team and tours of several of our stores in the city.
在 5 月 14 日這一周,我們將在上海進行中國投資者之旅,其中包括參觀我們的上海烘焙工坊、聽取我們當地領導團隊的介紹以及參觀我們在該市的幾家門店。
We'll provide more details as dates are finalized over the next couple of months.
隨著日期在接下來的幾個月內最終確定,我們將提供更多詳細信息。
Then concluding the year, we'll once again have our biannual Investor Day in December to provide a deeper understanding of our global strategy and financials.
然後結束這一年,我們將在 12 月再次舉辦一年兩次的投資者日,以更深入地了解我們的全球戰略和財務狀況。
In the meantime, we look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter 2018 results conference call, which has been tentatively scheduled for Thursday, January 25.
與此同時,我們期待在暫定於 1 月 25 日星期四舉行的 2018 年第一季度業績電話會議上再次與您交談。
Thanks again, and have a great evening.
再次感謝,祝您度過一個愉快的夜晚。
Operator
Operator
This concludes Starbucks Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call.
星巴克咖啡公司 2017 財年第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連接。