SAP SE (SAP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 營收與獲利均優於預期,全年營收達約 EUR37B,年增 11%;非 IFRS EPS 年增 36% 至 EUR6.15。
    • 2026 年展望:預期 CCB(Current Cloud Backlog)增速將較 2025 年略為放緩,但低於 2025 年的減速幅度;預計 2026 年自由現金流將創新高達 EUR10B。
    • Q4 大型雲端訂單創新高,AI 與 Business Data Cloud 成為主要成長動能,盤後市場反應未明確揭露。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 與 Business Data Cloud(BDC)滲透率提升,Q4 超過 2/3 雲端訂單包含 AI,90% 的 50 大交易涉及 AI 或 BDC。
      • 大型企業與公部門客戶持續導入 RISE with SAP,帶動雲端訂單與長期合約金額(TCB)成長。
      • 中型市場(mid-market)透過夥伴優先策略快速擴張,間接通路成長速度為直營的 1.5 倍以上。
      • 雲端 ERP 套件年增 32%,成為雲端營收的主要引擎,佔比達 86%。
      • AI 內部應用帶來營運效率,預計 2028 年底可實現 EUR2B 成本效益,等同 15-20% 可控成本。
    • 風險:
      • 大型合約導致雲端收入認列遞延,短期 CCB 增速受壓,部分收入遞延至 2027 年以後。
      • 地緣政治與主權雲需求導致交易週期拉長,特別是在公部門與敏感產業,影響短期雲端訂單認列。
      • AI 產業競爭激烈,客戶對於自建或採用其他 LLM 工具的風險需持續關注。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Current Cloud Backlog(CCB):Q4 年增 25%,低於預期(原預期 26%),主因大型合約與公部門合約認列遞延。
    • Total Cloud Backlog(TCB):全年年增 30% 至 EUR77B,創新高,合約期間穩定。
    • Cloud ERP Suite:2025 年年增 32%,以固定匯率計算,若以美元計算則高 2 個百分點。
    • 雲端營收:2025 年年增 26%,主要由雲端 ERP 帶動。
    • 軟體授權收入:年減 27%。
    • 非 IFRS 雲端毛利率:全年提升 1.6 個百分點至 75%。
    • 自由現金流:2025 年達 EUR8.2B,處於上修後區間高端。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收預計加速成長,受益於高 TCB 與大型合約後續認列。
    • 2026 年自由現金流預估約 EUR10B,創歷史新高。
    • 2026 年非 IFRS 有效稅率預期落在 28-30% 區間,低於先前溝通的 28-32%。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q4 CCB 低於預期,主要原因為何?2026 年 CCB 增速會有多大幅度的放緩?
      A: 主要因大型合約佔比提升,這些合約前 12 個月對 CCB 貢獻有限,收入認列遞延至未來數年;另有部分公部門合約因法律終止條款未計入 CCB。2026 年 CCB 增速僅會小幅放緩,不會像 2025 年有 4 個百分點的明顯減速。
    • Q: AI 對內部營運的影響與 EUR2B 成本效益如何實現?是否需進一步重組?R&D 投入 AI 的比重如何?
      A: EUR2B 成本效益將透過業務成長下成本與人力規模不同比例成長實現,無需額外重組。R&D 已有 35% 代碼自動化,AI 人才已轉移至 AI 基礎建設與代理人開發,未來會持續提升 AI 相關產出。
    • Q: AI 滲透率與現有雲端客戶採用情況?AI 是否帶來營收提升?有無客戶因 AI 轉向其他工具?
      A: AI 工具(Joule)用戶數年增九倍,約 60% 雲端客戶已積極使用 AI,20% 正在導入。AI 成為贏得大型合約的關鍵,未見客戶因 AI 轉向他牌,反而因 SAP 能結合業務數據與 AI 提供高價值解決方案而提升競爭力。
    • Q: 大型合約與長期合約對雲端收入成長的影響?2027 年以後雲端收入成長趨勢如何?
      A: 大型合約帶來短期 CCB 認列遞延,但有助於未來數年雲端收入加速成長。2026 年起雲端收入可望穩定成長,2027 年後受益於高 TCB 與續約基礎,成長動能可望延續。
    • Q: 主權雲(sovereign cloud)合約對營收、毛利率有何影響?
      A: 主權雲合約毛利率與一般合約相當,但因合約談判與認證流程較長,導致交易週期拉長。SAP 在全球合規與本地化具競爭優勢,能滿足不同國家法規需求。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome and thank you for joining the SAP Q4 and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Throughout today's recorded presentation.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎並感謝您參加 SAP 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。在今天錄製的示範中。

  • (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Alexandra Steiger, Global Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    (操作員指示)現在我將把會議交給全球投資者關係主管亞歷山德拉·施泰格。請繼續。

  • Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

    Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Thank you for joining us. With me today are CEO, Christian Klein; and CFO, Dominik Asam. On this call, we will discuss SAP's fourth quarter and full year results for 2025. You can find the deck supplementing this call, as well as our quarterly statement on our Investor Relations website.

    各位早安,歡迎各位。感謝您的參與。今天陪同我的是執行長克里斯蒂安·克萊因和首席財務長多米尼克·阿薩姆。在本次電話會議上,我們將討論 SAP 2025 年第四季和全年業績。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到本次電話會議的補充資料以及我們的季度報告。

  • During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcome to differ materially.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將發表前瞻性聲明,即對未來事件的預測、展望或其他聲明。這些聲明是基於目前的預期和假設,但存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。

  • Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties may be found in our filings with the SEC, including, but not limited to, the risk factor section of our annual report on Form 20-F for 2024. Unless otherwise stated, all numbers on this call are non-IFRS, and growth rates and percentage point changes are non-IFRS, year-on-year on consensus currencies. The non-IFRS financial measures we provide should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

    有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括但不限於我們 2024 年 20-F 表格年度報告中的風險因素部分。除非另有說明,本次電話會議中的所有數字均為非國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 數據,增長率和百分點變化均為非國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 數據,按共識貨幣同比計算。我們提供的非 IFRS 財務指標不應被視為替代或優於依照 IFRS 編製的財務績效指標。

  • And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Christian.

    接下來,我會把電話交給克里斯蒂安。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Thank you, Alexandra, and a warm welcome to everyone joining this call. In countless conversations with business leaders in Q4 and at the World Economic Forum, it became clear. Customers are facing geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility, and they would like to leverage AI to make their companies more resilient and more productive, driving growth as well as cost efficiencies.

    謝謝亞歷珊卓,也熱烈歡迎各位參加本次電話會議。在第四季和世界經濟論壇上與商界領袖的無數次對話中,這一點變得非常明確。客戶面臨地緣政治不確定性、宏觀經濟波動,他們希望利用人工智慧使公司更具韌性和生產力,從而推動成長並提高成本效益。

  • At the same time, it is very encouraging that more and more customers and partners are turning to SAP to gain real business value from AI. Why? Because they realize that they don't gain value by developing a number of custom AI agents or by applying commodity large language models on top of transactional business applications.

    同時,令人鼓舞的是,越來越多的客戶和合作夥伴正在轉向 SAP,以從人工智慧中獲得真正的商業價值。為什麼?因為他們意識到,開發大量客製化的 AI 代理或在事務性商業應用程式之上應用通用的大型語言模型並不能帶來價值。

  • The formula for gaining real value from AI as an enterprise is becoming clear. It's important to reimagine first how AI will change existing business models and mission-critical business processes. And to boost process automation and efficiency, AI agents must be embedded in business processes and trained with context-rich business data that is not available to large language model providers.

    企業如何從人工智慧中獲得真正價值的模式正變得越來越清晰。首先,我們需要重新構想人工智慧將如何改變現有的商業模式和關鍵業務流程。為了提高流程自動化和效率,人工智慧代理必須嵌入到業務流程中,並使用大型語言模型提供者無法獲得的、包含豐富上下文的業務資料進行訓練。

  • This is a unique combination only SAP can deliver because our business suite provides us with access to the world's largest volume of business data. And we directly infuse our agentic AI layer in the most mission-critical business processes of a company. This momentum of SAP Business AI is also clearly visible in our Q4 numbers. More than two-thirds of our Q4 cloud order entry includes business AI, increasing by more than 20 percentage points compared with Q3. Looking at the 50 largest deals in Q4, 90% of them included AI or SAP Business Data Cloud. We also saw the number of customers using our AI co-pilot tool growing ninefold over the course of the year.

    這是只有 SAP 才能提供的獨特組合,因為我們的業務套件使我們能夠存取全球最大的商業資料量。我們將自主研發的人工智慧層直接融入公司最關鍵的業務流程。SAP Business AI 的這一發展勢頭在我們的第四季度業績中也得到了充分體現。第四季度,我們超過三分之二的雲端訂單包含商業人工智慧,比第三季度成長了 20 多個百分點。縱觀第四季最大的 50 筆交易,其中 90% 都涉及人工智慧或 SAP 商業資料雲。我們也看到,使用我們人工智慧輔助駕駛工具的客戶數量在一年內增加了九倍。

  • Now, let's have a broader look at our financial performance. Q4 was the best booking quarter of 2025 ahead of our expectations. This resulted in a total cloud backlog of EUR77 billion up 30%. This also clearly shows the underlying momentum of our business, as well as our potential in the future. In addition, we achieved our 2025 financial outlook for cloud revenue, as well as cloud and software revenue. A great performance considering the macroeconomic challenges we faced in half a year one.

    現在,讓我們更全面地看一下我們的財務表現。2025 年第四季是預訂量最高的季度,超出我們的預期。這導致雲端業務積壓總額達到 770 億歐元,成長了 30%。這也清楚地表明了我們業務的潛在發展勢頭,以及我們未來的潛力。此外,我們實現了 2025 年雲端收入以及雲端和軟體收入的財務預期。考慮到我們上半年面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰,這是一個非常出色的成績。

  • The ongoing transformation of SAP's operating module combined with applying AI across the company allowed us to even beat our operating profit and free cash flow outlook in 2025. Some of you might remember back in 2020, we started our disruptive cloud transformation with very ambitious targets for 2025. And today, I'm happy to say we have delivered what we promised and even outperformed this ambition.

    SAP 營運模組的持續轉型,加上人工智慧在全公司範圍內的應用,使我們甚至在 2025 年超額完成了營業利潤和自由現金流的預期目標。你們當中有些可能還記得,在 2020 年,我們啟動了顛覆性的雲端轉型,並制定了雄心勃勃的 2025 年目標。今天,我很高興地宣布,我們不僅兌現了承諾,而且超額完成了目標。

  • But more importantly, the great technological achievements of our cloud transformation are now giving SAP the right to win with business AI. It is the time to thank our customers, partners, and more than 100,000 colleagues worldwide for the trust in our strategy and for making the transformation happen. For sure, the biggest in SAP's history.

    但更重要的是,我們在雲端轉型方面取得的巨大技術成就,現在使 SAP 能夠在商業人工智慧領域贏得勝利。現在是時候感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴以及全球超過 10 萬名同事,感謝他們對我們策略的信任,並感謝他們促成了這項轉型。這無疑是SAP史上規模最大的一次。

  • Let me directly turn to Q4 number where I expect some questions. Our global cloud backlog. In Q4, it grew 25%. Back in Q3, we expected to reach 26%. Before I explain the deviation, let me outline that in Q4, new bookings came in clearly ahead of plan. And we saw strong customer retention, low churn, and stable discount rates. This resulted in a 30% increase to EUR77 billion total cloud backlog, an impressive growth on an already large base.

    讓我直接進入第四季度的問題,我預計會有一些問題。我們的全球雲積壓訂單。第四季成長了25%。早在第三季度,我們就預期能達到 26%。在解釋偏差之前,我想先說明一下,第四季度的新訂單明顯超過了計劃。我們看到客戶留存率高、客戶流失率低、折扣率穩定。這使得雲端業務積壓訂單總額成長了 30%,達到 770 億歐元,在原本就龐大的基數上實現了令人矚目的成長。

  • Despite the strong Q4 performance, two factors led to the deviation. First, we closed a higher share of significantly large deals in Q4 compared to our forecast in October, which is great for the total cloud backlog. But large customers often don't move their mission-critical ERP in the first year. These deals always have more backend-loaded RAMs and as a consequence, a limited impact on current cloud backlog in the first 12 months. The good news, the average contract duration remains stable, so we expect higher revenue contributions from these deals over the next few years.

    儘管第四季度業績強勁,但有兩個因素導致了偏差。首先,與 10 月的預測相比,我們在第四季度完成了更高比例的重大交易,這對整個雲端業務積壓訂單來說是個好消息。但大型客戶通常不會在第一年遷移其關鍵業務 ERP 系統。這些交易通常擁有更多的後端加載內存,因此,在前 12 個月內對當前的雲積壓訂單的影響有限。好消息是,平均合約期限保持穩定,因此我們預計未來幾年這些交易將帶來更高的收入貢獻。

  • Second, we closed a higher share of government deals in Q4 that included a termination for convenience by law. Such deals are not reflected in the CCB. So while we even overperformed on bookings and are very satisfied with the outcome of Q4, the combination of both effects resulted in a 1 percentage point difference to what we expected in October.

    第二,我們在第四季達成的政府交易中,有相當一部分交易因法律規定而終止。此類交易並未反映在建行帳簿中。因此,儘管我們在預訂方面甚至超出了預期,並且對第四季度的結果非常滿意,但兩種因素的綜合作用導致我們在 10 月份的預期結果與實際結果相差 1 個百分點。

  • And consequently, a slight shift of cloud revenue from 2026 to 2027 and beyond. Now the great wins performance included some impressive wins in Q4. Adidas, L'Oréal and H&M Corp are embarking on the RISE with SAP journey, Deloitte, Pirelli, RTX, Nokia, Jabil and the US Navy chose RISE too.

    因此,2026 年至 2027 年及以後,雲端運算收入可能會略有變化。這次大獲全勝的戰績包括第四季度的一些令人印象深刻的勝利。阿迪達斯、歐萊雅和 H&M 公司正在與 SAP 攜手開啟 RISE 之旅,德勤、倍耐力、RTX、諾基亞、捷普和美國海軍也選擇了 RISE。

  • While Toyota and Daimler Truck are even expanding their ongoing RISE journey. Lockheed Martin went live on RISE with one of their business areas, a further step in our multiyear partnership. It will continue in 2026 with our human capital management solutions as they keep transforming their workforce. Across all sectors, companies selected SAP growth to transform their business. KPMG, Snowflake and Muller, a large German retailer, just to name a few.

    豐田和戴姆勒卡車甚至還在擴大他們正在進行的 RISE 計畫。洛克希德馬丁公司已將其一個業務領域正式上線 RISE 系統,這是我們多年合作關係的另一個重要進展。2026年,我們將持續提供人力資本管理解決方案,協助他們持續轉型員工隊伍。各行各業的公司都選擇 SAP Growth 來轉型業務。舉幾例,KPMG、Snowflake 和德國大型零售商 Muller 就是其中之一。

  • On business AI, new customers included names such as Tech Mahindra, Mondelez, Kirin and Sun Chemical. In health care, Fresenius selected SAP Business AI to sustainably improve patient care. We also saw the Bosch Group select SAP Business AI in Q4 to help boost innovation across all four of its business sectors. This momentum is translating into business AI adoption.

    在商業人工智慧領域,新客戶包括 Tech Mahindra、Mondelez、麒麟和 Sun Chemical 等公司。在醫療保健領域,費森尤斯選擇 SAP Business AI 來永續改善病患照護。我們也看到博世集團在第四季度選擇了 SAP Business AI,以協助提升其所有四個業務領域的創新能力。這種勢頭正在轉化為企業對人工智慧的採用。

  • Our customers are already achieving impressive outcomes. Just one example. Siemens Consultants can reinvest 25% of their weekly working time into higher-value activities, thanks to tool for consultants. These impressive wins are on just a list of logos. They are the result of our focused strategy execution throughout the year.

    我們的客戶已經取得了令人矚目的成果。舉個例子。透過一款針對顧問顧問的工具,西門子諮詢顧問可以將每週 25% 的工作時間重新投入到更高價值的活動中。這些令人矚目的勝利僅僅體現在一系列標誌設計中。這是我們全年專注執行策略的成果。

  • Looking back at 2025, we made huge focus. Let me name a few highlights. First, our cloud transformation is in full swing. Customers, representing 40% of our support revenue base have now initiated a move to cloud ERP using device and go with SAP offerings. On the go-to-market side, we established a partner-first approach for the mid-market. And our focus on public cloud pays off with order entry growing more than 5 times faster than private cloud in 2025.

    展望 2025 年,我們重點關注了以下方面。讓我列舉幾個亮點。首先,我們的雲端轉型正在全面展開。占我們支援收入基礎 40% 的客戶現在已經開始使用設備和 SAP 產品遷移到雲端 ERP 。在市場推廣方面,我們為中端市場制定了以合作夥伴為先的策略。我們對公有雲的重視獲得了回報,到 2025 年,訂單輸入速度將比私有雲快 5 倍以上。

  • Now almost half of our order entry. We have also expanded our software and cloud capabilities and continue to see high demand for our offerings in the public sector. In Q4, for example, we closed a new one GAF agreement with the US General World Services Administration and with the HMRC in the UK.

    現在幾乎一半的訂單都來自這裡。我們還擴展了軟體和雲端功能,並持續看到公共部門對我們的產品和服務有很高的需求。例如,在第四季度,我們與美國通用世界服務管理局和英國稅務海關總署分別簽署了一份新的 GAF 協議。

  • Finally, our innovations in SAP Business Data Cloud and Business AI are seeing strong traction. SAP Business Data Cloud secured around EUR2 billion in total contract value in less than a year since its launch. And as I mentioned earlier, more than two-third of our Q4 cloud order entry included AI.

    最後,我們在 SAP 商業數據雲和商業人工智慧領域的創新正在取得強勁進展。SAP Business Data Cloud 自推出以來不到一年,就獲得了總價值約 20 億歐元的合約。正如我之前提到的,我們第四季超過三分之二的雲端訂單都包含人工智慧。

  • Now let's turn to our growth ambition for the year 2026 and beyond. Over the last years, we have built a solid foundation for future growth, thanks to the successful execution of our transformation. Building on this momentum, we are confident that we will further expand our market share for cloud revenue and accelerate total revenue growth through 2027.

    現在讓我們來看看我們2026年及以後的成長目標。過去幾年,由於我們成功實施轉型,我們為未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。憑藉這一勢頭,我們有信心進一步擴大我們在雲端收入方面的市場份額,並在 2027 年之前加速總收入成長。

  • This confidence is based on several key growth drivers. First, coming back to our total cloud backlog of EUR77 billion. This grew by 30%. It outperformed our current Cloud backlog growth by 5 percentage points. In short, we have a significant amount of our future cloud revenue in the books. And given the ramps of the large deals over the next four years, we are increasingly building a strong foundation for total revenue acceleration through 2027.

    這種信心源自於幾個關鍵的成長驅動因素。首先,讓我們回到我們高達 770 億歐元的雲端業務積壓訂單。這一數字增加了30%。它比我們目前的雲積壓訂單成長高出 5 個百分點。簡而言之,我們未來相當一部分雲端收入已經確定。鑑於未來四年大型交易的逐步推進,我們正在為 2027 年實現總收入加速成長奠定堅實的基礎。

  • Second, we will continue converting our installed base to the cloud with a multiplier of 2 times to 3 times, considering our support revenue base of EUR10.5 billion, this represents a multibillion euro cloud revenue opportunity for us.

    其次,我們將繼續把已安裝的用戶群遷移到雲端,遷移倍數為 2 到 3 倍。考慮到我們 105 億歐元的支援收入基礎,這代表著數十億歐元的雲端收入機會。

  • Third, the vast majority of our cloud customers are expanding their SAP footprint across the SAP business suite. They now clearly see the value of best of suite over best of fleet, especially in the age of AI. So they leverage the best of set of suite not only to run their business processes end to end, but they also seek a harmonized data platform that provides the foundation for high-value business AI.

    第三,我們絕大多數的雲端客戶正在擴大其 SAP 業務套件的覆蓋範圍。他們現在清楚地認識到,最好的套房比最好的機隊更有價值,尤其是在人工智慧時代。因此,他們不僅利用這套最佳套件來端到端地運行業務流程,而且還尋求一個統一的數據平台,為高價值的商業人工智慧奠定基礎。

  • As a result, in Q4 alone, almost two-third of our deals exceeding EUR1 million involved four or more lines of business, a remarkable increase of 25 percentage points, but we see this not only in increased up in cross-selling numbers, but also in market share gains. Overall, we outperformed the cloud market by 10 percentage points in 2025.

    因此,僅在第四季度,超過 100 萬歐元的交易中,近三分之二涉及四個或更多業務線,增幅高達 25 個百分點,這不僅體現在交叉銷售數量的增加,也體現在市場份額的成長上。整體而言,到 2025 年,我們的表現將比雲端運算市場高出 10 個百分點。

  • Fourth, it is just the world's largest enterprises that rely on SAP. With our business suite in the public cloud, SAP's mid-market business is growing too. We expand in the mid-market, and we are winning new customers through our partner-first strategy and the significant expansion of our reseller ecosystem. This channel is already growing more than 1.5 times faster than our direct business. And we will substantially increase the contribution from our ecosystem.

    第四,只有全球最大的企業才依賴 SAP。憑藉我們在公有雲上的業務套件,SAP 的中階市場業務也在不斷成長。我們在中端市場不斷擴張,透過合作夥伴優先策略和經銷商生態系統的顯著擴展,我們贏得了新客戶。該通路的成長速度已經比我們的直接業務快1.5倍以上。我們將大幅增加生態系的貢獻。

  • Finally, let me conclude with the growth driver that has the highest potential. And this, of course, to create a strategic relevance by far, our Business AI and Business Data Cloud. The traction from 2025 is just the beginning. Many customers have seen that an LLM alone is not enough. They need modules, business data and context to build high-value AI use cases and derive business value.

    最後,讓我總結一下最具潛力的成長驅動因素。當然,這一切都是為了創造遠超以往的策略相關性,我們的商業人工智慧和商業數據雲端。2025 年的成長只是個開始。許多客戶已經意識到,僅僅擁有法學碩士學位是不夠的。他們需要模組、業務數據和背景資訊來建立高價值的 AI 用例並從中獲得業務價值。

  • So let me explain to you how we drive growth with SAP's unique combination of apps, data and AI. First, Joule, we are reinventing the user experience and the way people work across all our apps with our Copilot tool. Unlike other digital coworkers, Joule doesn't just access the world's leading LLMs, it also has part access to business data. No matter the task. Joule is setting new standards for user experience, simplicity, productivity and we'll just redefine the future of work.

    那麼,讓我來解釋一下我們如何利用 SAP 獨特的應用程式、數據和人工智慧組合來推動成長。首先,Joule,我們正在透過我們的 Copilot 工具,重新定義使用者體驗以及人們在我們所有應用程式中的工作方式。與其他數位同事不同,Joule 不僅可以存取世界領先的 LLM,還可以部分存取業務資料。無論是什麼任務。Joule 正在為使用者體驗、簡潔性和生產力樹立新標準,我們將重新定義未來的工作方式。

  • Second, embedded and extensible AI agents. We are embedding AI agents across the main business processes of every company. Doing so, we are helping our customers to realize efficiency through automation, make better decisions and gain agility across the value chain with connected agents.

    其次,嵌入式和可擴展的人工智慧代理。我們正在將人工智慧代理嵌入到每家公司的主要業務流程中。透過這種方式,我們正在幫助客戶透過自動化實現效率提升,做出更好的決策,並透過互聯代理在整個價值鏈中獲得敏捷性。

  • To extent where differentiation is needed, we provide a powerful agent builder with capabilities that are unique to SAP such as the access to a semantical BDC data product and the ability to benchmark and infuse agents directly into the business process layer within our apps. Our offering serves the needs of our developers while our business users can use the agent builder in a local mode to easily build, deploy and manage AI agents.

    在需要差異化的地方,我們提供了一個強大的代理構建器,其功能是 SAP 獨有的,例如訪問語義 BDC 數據產品,以及能夠直接在我們的應用程式的業務流程層中對代理進行基準測試和注入。我們的產品既滿足了開發人員的需求,也滿足了業務用戶的需求,他們可以在本地模式下使用代理建構器輕鬆建置、部署和管理 AI 代理程式。

  • Third, we have always differentiated ourselves by our deep industry and business process knowledge and coded high-value industry-specific applications. Now we are reimagining these strategic industry capabilities with AI. Together with some industry-leading customers, we are already redefining mission-critical parts of an industry value chain by developing the next-generation AI solutions like redefining patient care and health care, delivering higher predictability and supply chain resilience in manufacturing. And to smarter trade promotions and personalize the shopping experience in retail. Some of these industry AI use cases were already crucial to the success of our Q4 deals.

    第三,我們始終憑藉著深厚的行業和業務流程知識脫穎而出,並編寫了高價值的行業特定應用程式。現在,我們正在利用人工智慧重新構想這些策略性產業能力。我們正與一些領先業界的客戶一起,透過開發下一代人工智慧解決方案,重新定義產業價值鏈中的關鍵環節,例如重新定義病患照護和醫療保健,提高製造業的可預測性和供應鏈彈性。並實現更聰明的貿易促銷和個人化的零售購物體驗。其中一些行業人工智慧應用案例對於我們第四季度交易的成功至關重要。

  • Fourth, BDC addresses one of the biggest all blocks for AI adoption that our customers face today, data silos. BDC brings together SAP and non-SAP data, providing our customers with the harmonized data they need to enable their Agentic AI vision. In 2026, we will heavily accelerate the development of data products to enrich the semantic layer for all of our customers.

    第四,BDC 解決了我們的客戶目前在採用 AI 時面臨的最大障礙之一,即資料孤島。BDC 將 SAP 和非 SAP 資料整合在一起,為我們的客戶提供他們實現其智慧人工智慧願景所需的統一資料。2026年,我們將大幅加快資料產品的開發,以豐富我們所有客戶的語意層。

  • And fifth, accelerated ERP migration. In customer spend 10 times more on their ERP migration compared to what they spend on their ERP software. With our integrated AI-powered migration tool chain in the RISE journey, we are shrinking this ratio by cutting the migration cost and making it faster and easier for customers to realize value from their transformation.

    第五,加速ERP遷移。客戶在 ERP 遷移上的花費是其在 ERP 軟體上的花費的 10 倍。在 RISE 轉型過程中,我們透過整合 AI 驅動的遷移工具鏈,降低了遷移成本,使客戶能夠更快、更輕鬆地從轉型中獲得價值,從而縮小了這一比例。

  • Net-net, in all of the focus areas, SAP has a clear why to win. Together, they'll secure SAP's position as the leading business AI company. Finally, to be credible in the AI market, we have all modeled the use of business AI and kicked off an extensive AI transformation program internally. We are using AI across all functions to unlock significant long-term operating profit potential.

    總而言之,在所有重點領域,SAP 都有明確的勝利理由。他們將攜手鞏固 SAP 作為領先的商業人工智慧公司的地位。最後,為了在人工智慧市場中獲得信譽,我們都對商業人工智慧的使用進行了建模,並在內部啟動了一項廣泛的人工智慧轉型計畫。我們正在所有職能部門應用人工智慧,以釋放巨大的長期營運利潤潛力。

  • In R&D, we see huge efficiency gains as the role of a developer is shifting from traditional code writing toward designing, guiding and validating AI-generated solutions. In sales, Business AI will help us to better grow price, identify opportunities. In HR, Business AI will help us better plan and transform our workforce.

    在研發領域,我們看到效率大幅提升,因為開發人員的角色正在從傳統的程式碼編寫轉向設計、指導和驗證人工智慧產生的解決方案。在銷售方面,商業人工智慧將幫助我們更好地提高價格,並發現商機。在人力資源領域,商業人工智慧將幫助我們更好地規劃和轉型我們的員工。

  • Every SAP leader across every function is infusing AI into their business and the reskilling of our workforce, because AI isn't just about technology, it first needs to be enabled by our people. Altogether, our goal is to achieve a run rate of around EUR2 billion in real cost efficiencies by the end of 2028, thanks to the internal usage of AI.

    SAP 各個職能部門的每位領導者都在將人工智慧融入他們的業務和員工技能提升中,因為人工智慧不僅僅是技術,它首先需要由我們的人來實現。總而言之,我們的目標是到 2028 年底,透過內部使用人工智慧,實現約 20 億歐元的實際成本效益。

  • This equates to efficiency gains of 15% to 20% of addressable costs, which also helps us to reinvest into our AI road map. So to sum it all up, we 2025 with strong momentum. Our strategy is validated by our customers. And we have all the ingredients to win in the age of AI. The groundwork is done, and 2026 will be the year AI delivers enterprise scale return on investment.

    這相當於可控成本提高了 15% 到 20%,這也有助於我們重新投資人工智慧路線圖。總而言之,我們以強勁的勢頭邁向2025年。我們的策略得到了客戶的認可。我們具備在人工智慧時代取得成功的全部要素。前期準備工作已經完成,2026 年將是人工智慧為企業帶來規模化投資回報的一年。

  • And with that, I'll hand over to Dominik.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給多明尼克。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you very much, Christian, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I'd also like to wish you all a happy and healthy year 2026. SAP's strong close to the year reflects steady execution against our priorities. As we navigated a rapidly shifting macroeconomic backdrop at the beginning of the year, remain focused on operational discipline and driving value for our customers in times of unprecedented technological change.

    非常感謝你,克里斯蒂安,也感謝各位今天早上收看我們的節目。我也想祝大家2026年幸福安康。SAP 年底的強勁表現反映了我們各項優先事項的穩定執行。今年年初,我們面臨著瞬息萬變的宏觀經濟環境,在史無前例的技術變革時期,我們始終專注於營運紀律,為客戶創造價值。

  • Our ability to drive top line growth while consistently exceeding our profitability and free cash flow expectations reflects the consistent execution against the outlook we provided at the beginning of the year. While the challenges persisted, we took deliberate steps to reinforce our foundation and align the business for durable, sustainable performance.

    我們能夠在持續超越獲利能力和自由現金流預期的同時,實現營收成長,這反映了我們年初所作展望的持續有效執行。儘管挑戰依然存在,但我們採取了審慎的措施來鞏固基礎,並調整業務以實現持久、可持續的業績。

  • As a result, we closed the year in a position of strength and the progress we've made has set the stage for continued advancement towards our financial and strategic priorities in the years ahead. Verizon growth with SAP both remain core pillars of our transformation strategy, serving as a go-to solution for large-scale enterprises and high-growth mid-sized companies undergoing complex end-to-end modernization efforts.

    因此,我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年,我們取得的進展為未來幾年繼續朝著我們的財務和戰略重點邁進奠定了基礎。Verizon 與 SAP 的合作發展仍然是我們轉型策略的核心支柱,為正在進行複雜的端到端現代化工作的大型企業和高成長中型企業提供首選解決方案。

  • And as highlighted by Christian and AI and the Business Data Cloud are beginning to show real commercial impact emerging as a meaningful contributor to customer decision and deal activity. This combined momentum continues to materialize in large cloud transactions with deal volumes greater than EUR5 million, contributing a record 71% to our total cloud order entry in the fourth quarter. These results validate our role as a partner of choice, trusted by world-class organizations navigating high stakes transformation at speed and scale.

    正如 Christian 所強調的那樣,人工智慧和商業數據雲正開始展現出真正的商業影響,成為客戶決策和交易活動的重要貢獻者。這種綜合勢頭繼續體現在交易額超過 500 萬歐元的大型雲端交易中,在第四季度為我們的總雲端訂單量貢獻了創紀錄的 71%。這些結果證實了我們作為首選合作夥伴的地位,我們受到世界一流組織的信賴,幫助他們快速、大規模地應對高風險的轉型。

  • Now let me provide more details around our financial highlights. Current cloud backlog reached EUR21 million, up 25%. This is a more pronounced slowdown than what we had anticipated and more than the slight deceleration we guided to at the beginning of last year. Echo on Christian's remarks, this outcome reflects a deal mix weighted towards larger transformations, many of which include longer ramp periods or flexible structuring, reducing their near-term CCB contribution.

    現在讓我詳細介紹一下我們的財務亮點。目前雲端業務積壓訂單達 2,100 萬歐元,成長 25%。這比我們預期的放緩幅度更大,也比我們去年年初預測的輕微放緩幅度更大。正如克里斯蒂安所說,這一結果反映出交易組合傾向於規模較大的轉型,其中許多轉型包括更長的過渡期或靈活的結構,從而減少了它們在短期內對建設銀行的貢獻。

  • Also, further mounting geopolitical tensions have led to many customers putting even more emphasis on exploring sovereign SaaS options. While SAP is extremely well positioned in this segment, and we have a significant pipeline of opportunities due to the trust Germany and SAP continue to enjoy on a global scale. It takes longer to negotiate these more complex transactions and also longer to deploy and ramp as compared with plain vanilla offerings of US infrastructure as a service vendors.

    此外,日益加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢也促使許多客戶更加重視探索自主 SaaS 方案。雖然 SAP 在該領域擁有非常有利的地位,並且由於德國和 SAP 在全球範圍內持續享有的信任,我們擁有大量的機會儲備。與美國基礎設施即服務供應商提供的普通產品相比,協商這些更複雜的交易需要更長時間,部署和啟動也需要更長時間。

  • This is particularly true for any state-owned and related entities as well as defense, but starts to also affect commercial customers in certain particularly sensitive geographies and industries. Total cloud backlog for the year grew 30% to a record EUR77 billion, again significantly exceeding our current cloud backlog and cloud revenue growth. Cloud Ad revenue actually grew 26% year-on-year in 2025, again, primarily driven by the strong performance of cloud ERP suite.

    對於任何國有及相關實體以及國防領域來說,情況尤其如此,但在某些特別敏感的地區和產業,商業客戶也開始受到影響。今年雲端業務積壓訂單總額成長 30%,達到創紀錄的 770 億歐元,再次大幅超過我們目前的雲端業務積壓訂單和雲端收入成長。2025 年雲端廣告收入實際上比去年同期成長了 26%,這主要得益於雲端 ERP 套件的強勁表現。

  • Cloud ERP suite is another notable year, reinforcing its position as a key engine of growth with an increase of 32% in 2025. And I want to make the remark is as a constant currency number in US number -- US dollar, the number would be 2 percentage points higher if you want to compare to competition. This performance is especially meaningful given the expansion of its revenue base over time, highlighting its ability to scale in a sustainable growth rate, now accounting for 86% of total cloud revenue for the year.

    雲端 ERP 套件是另一個值得關注的年份,鞏固了其作為關鍵成長引擎的地位,預計到 2025 年將成長 32%。我想指出的是,如果以美元計價,與競爭對手相比,這個數字將高出 2 個百分點。考慮到其收入基礎隨著時間的推移而不斷擴大,這一業績尤其意義重大,凸顯了其以可持續增長率擴展規模的能力,目前已佔全年雲端收入總額的 86%。

  • Software licenses revenue decreased by 27%. Finally, total revenue for the full year approached EUR37 billion, up 11%. Now let's take a brief look at our regional performance. For the full year, Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, South Korean and Spain all had outstanding performances in cloud revenue, but China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom as well as the US were particularly strong.

    軟體授權收入下降了27%。最終,全年總收入接近 370 億歐元,成長 11%。現在讓我們簡要地看一下我們區域的表現。全年來看,巴西、法國、德國、印度、義大利、韓國和西班牙在雲端運算收入方面均表現出色,但中國、日本、沙烏地阿拉伯、英國以及美國表現尤為強勁。

  • Now down in the income statement. Our non-IFRS cloud gross margin for the full year continued its upward trend from last year and expanded by 1.6 percentage points to 75%, driving cloud gross profit up by 29%. In the fourth quarter, IFRS operating profit increased 27% to EUR2.6 billion. Non-IFRS operating profit was up 21%. Both IFRS and non-IFRS operating profit growth were negatively impacted by approximately EUR100 million related to a 2025 workforce transformation.

    現在來看損益表。我們全年的非 IFRS 雲端業務毛利率延續了去年的上升趨勢,成長了 1.6 個百分點,達到 75%,推動雲端業務毛利成長了 29%。第四季度,以國際財務報告準則(IFRS)計算的營業利潤成長27%,達到26億歐元。非國際財務報告準則(Non-IFRS)營業利潤成長了21%。2025 年勞動力轉型計畫導致約 1 億歐元的支出,對 IFRS 和非 IFRS 營業利潤成長均產生了負面影響。

  • In addition, IFRS operating profit growth was negatively impacted by USD200 million related to Teradata litigation expenses. For the full year, IFRS operating profit increased to EUR9.8 billion and non-IFRS operating profit to EUR10.4 billion. The IFRS effective tax rate for the full year was 28.5%. The non-IFRS tax rate was 30.4%, which is below the outlook for approximately 32%, mainly resulting from an increasing ability to offset foreign withholding taxes in Germany.

    此外,由於 Teradata 訴訟費用產生的 2 億美元,IFRS 營業利潤成長受到負面影響。全年來看,以國際財務報告準則計算的營業利潤增加至98億歐元,以非國際財務報告準則計算的營業利潤增加至104億歐元。全年的 IFRS 有效稅率為 28.5%。非 IFRS 稅率為 30.4%,低於預期的約 32%,這主要是由於德國抵扣外國預提稅的能力不斷增強所致。

  • Looking forward, we expect the midterm non-IFRS effective tax rate to be in the range of 28% to 30%, which is slightly lower than half lower -- which is in the lower half of the previously communicated range of 28% to 32%. Free cash flow for the full year was around down EUR8.2 billion, i.e., at the very high end of our revised outlook range of EUR8 billion to EUR8.2 billion.

    展望未來,我們預計中期非 IFRS 實際稅率將在 28% 至 30% 之間,略低於先前公佈的 28% 至 32% 區間的一半。全年自由現金流約為 82 億歐元,即處於我們修訂後的預期範圍 80 億歐元至 82 億歐元的高端。

  • This increase was mainly attributable to higher profitability and to lower payments for restructuring and share-based compensation. This result reflects our continued emphasis on disciplined cash management and operating efficiency building on the progress we've made in strengthening quality and consistency of our cash flow over time.

    這一增長主要歸因於更高的盈利能力以及重組和股權激勵支出的減少。這一結果反映了我們對嚴格的現金管理和營運效率的持續重視,以及我們在不斷提高現金流品質和穩定性方面所取得的進展。

  • We are very proud of the progress we've made this year and the business momentum that contributed to our strong net cash position. As a result, SAP has decided to further step up its capital returns with a new two-year share repurchase program of up to EUR10 billion scheduled to start in February. This decision reflects our confidence in the sustainable strength of the business and our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders in a disciplined and balanced way.

    我們為今年的進展以及促成我們強勁淨現金狀況的業務發展勢頭感到非常自豪。因此,SAP 決定進一步提高資本回報,並計劃於 2 月啟動一項新的為期兩年、規模高達 100 億歐元的股票回購計畫。這項決定體現了我們對公司永續發展實力的信心,以及我們持續以嚴謹平衡的方式向股東返還資本的承諾。

  • Finally, non-IFRS basic earnings per share in fiscal year 2025 increased by 36% to EUR6.15. Now let's move on to our outlook. As you've probably seen in the quarterly statement published earlier today, we have provided this year's outlook by now, we expect CCB growth to moderate to moderate slightly over the course of 2026, while some deceleration is anticipated, it is expected to be meaningfully less than what we saw in 2025 in terms of deceleration.

    最後,2025財年非國際財務報告準則基本每股收益成長36%至6.15歐元。現在讓我們來看看展望。正如您可能在今天早些時候發布的季度報告中看到的那樣,我們已經提供了今年的展望,我們預計建行2026年的增長將有所放緩,雖然預計會出現一些放緩,但預計放緩的幅度將遠小於2025年的放緩幅度。

  • At the same time, we see a path for total revenue growth to accelerate supported by the foundation we've built and the continued strength of our business. And our operating profit outlook reflects a sustained operating discipline, driving our expense to revenue growth ratio towards the lower end of our long-term operating leverage objective of 80% to 90%, giving us the opportunity to continue to drive non-IFRS operating profit growth significantly above growth.

    同時,我們看到,在已建立的基礎和業務持續強勁的支撐下,總收入成長將加速。我們的營業利潤前景反映了持續的經營紀律,使我們的費用與收入成長比率接近我們長期經營槓桿目標 80% 至 90% 的下限,使我們有機會繼續推動非 IFRS 營業利潤增長顯著高於其他指標。

  • In addition, in 2026, we expect to generate a record free cash flow of approximately EUR10 billion, supported by continued efficiency improvements and operational rigor. Overall, our guidance reflects a balanced view of the opportunity ahead grounded in disciplined execution and an ongoing commitment to long-term value creation.

    此外,我們預計在 2026 年將產生約 100 億歐元的創紀錄自由現金流,這得益於持續的效率提升和嚴格的營運。整體而言,我們的指導意見體現了對未來機會的平衡看法,這種看法建立在嚴謹的執行和對長期價值創造的持續承諾之上。

  • With 2025 now behind us, we move into 2026 focused on consistency, clarity and execution. The groundwork we have laid across both transformation initiatives and commercial performance puts us in a strong position to deliver against the guidance we outlined today. While geopolitical and trade tensions have taken a certain toll on our top line performance in 2025, the growing need for sovereignty and resilience also offers unique opportunities for those vendors that can offer technologies and tools to reduce dependencies from dominant offerings.

    2025 年已經過去,我們邁入 2026 年,將重點放在一致性、清晰度和執行力上。我們在轉型計劃和商業績效方面奠定的基礎,使我們有能力實現今天提出的目標。儘管地緣政治和貿易緊張局勢對我們 2025 年的營收業績造成了一定影響,但對主權和韌性的日益增長的需求也為那些能夠提供技術和工具以減少對主導產品依賴的供應商提供了獨特的機會。

  • As the largest non-US software, SaaS and PaaS vendor, there's no company better positioned than SAP to satisfy this rapidly growing demand. Our strategy to design a stack, which is not locked into any particular is particularly valuable in that respect. And our decision to keep developing our powerful SAP converged cloud infrastructure, the sovereign infrastructure, thereby preserving capability to run infrastructure service efficiently in our own data centers, provides us with another now even more valuable option to deploy our SaaS and PaaS offers.

    作為美國以外最大的軟體、SaaS 和 PaaS 供應商,沒有任何一家公司比 SAP 更有能力滿足這種快速成長的需求。從這個角度來看,我們設計一個不限於任何特定技術的堆疊的策略特別有價值。我們決定繼續開發我們強大的 SAP 融合雲端基礎設施(即主權基礎設施),從而保留在我們自己的資料中心高效運行基礎設施服務的能力,這為我們部署 SaaS 和 PaaS 產品提供了另一個更有價值的選擇。

  • Despite an unpredictable macro and geopolitical environment, our strategy remains clear and our execution is already driving meaningful progress across the business. Customers are choosing us as their north star to lead mission-critical change, and we remain committed to helping them move faster, scale smarter, become more sovereign, more resilient and modernized with confidence.

    儘管宏觀和地緣政治環境難以預測,但我們的策略依然清晰,我們的執行已經推動了業務的實質進展。客戶選擇我們作為引領關鍵變革的指路明燈,我們將繼續致力於幫助他們更快地發展、更聰明地擴展規模、變得更加自主、更具韌性並充滿信心地現代化。

  • Thank you, and we will now be happy to take your questions.

    謝謝,現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

    Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Dominik. With that, we'll now take your questions. (Ewent Instructions) Operator, please open the line.

    謝謝你,多米尼克。接下來,我們將回答各位的問題。(Ewent 指示)接線員,請開通線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Adam Wood, Morgan Stanley.

    亞當伍德,摩根士丹利。

  • Adam Wood - Equity Analyst

    Adam Wood - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, Christian; morning, Dominik, thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe if we go to, I guess, the main focus for investors on the CCB at the end of the year. You spoke obviously the end of the year of 25% being disappointed -- been disappointing, which is unfortunately where we ended up.

    嘿,克里斯蒂安,早安;多明尼克,早安,非常感謝你們回答這個問題。或許我們可以看看,我想,投資人在年底主要關注的焦點是建行。你顯然提到了年底有 25% 的人感到失望——確實令人失望,不幸的是,這就是我們最終的結果。

  • Can you maybe talk us a little bit through the end of the fourth quarter close? Was it entirely that you had these large deals with later ramps and deals with cancellations in the or did you also see some slippage? And maybe if that was also the case, could you help us with what the pipeline looks like going into Q1? Obviously, there was slippage out of a very big Q4, that could be a very good pipeline for the first quarter.

    您能否為我們簡要介紹一下第四季末的收官情況?是只有那些後期坡道的大宗交易和取消交易才會導致延誤,還是也出現了一些延誤?如果情況確實如此,您能否幫我們分析一下第一季的生產線狀況?顯然,第四季業績大幅下滑,這可能會為第一季帶來非常好的業績成長。

  • And then I appreciate you only give these numbers to the big figure and not to the decimal point. But unfortunately, I think for everybody, the kind of rounding up and rounding down would help. Could you give us any insight into whether 25% and then 26% adjusted for those effects, has been rounded down or rounded up.

    而且我很欣賞你只給整數部分,而不是小數部分。但遺憾的是,我認為對所有人來說,這種向上或向下取整的做法都會有所幫助。您能否告知我們,經調整後的 25% 和 26% 是向下取整還是向上取整?

  • And then maybe just finally, you talked about slight deceleration. I guess everybody is going to say, well, slight deceleration last year was 4 points, I guess, we could say 3 points organic. Is that the same type of range that people should be thinking about? Because I think that's an issue where people would go to?

    最後,你或許也談到了輕微減速。我想大家都會說,去年略微放緩了 4 個百分點,我想,我們可以說 3 個百分點是自然發生的。這是人們應該考慮的那種範圍嗎?因為我覺得這是人們會去討論的問題?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Yeah, thanks a lot, Adam. So look, let me start with the CCB of 25%. Yes, we said in October, 26% would be the target. I mean, first, let me reiterate again. Compared to October, we even had overachieved our bookings plan. And also, the churn came out lower than expected, and we also, very importantly, had stable discount rates.

    是啊,非常感謝你,亞當。好的,我先從 25% 的 CCB 開始說起。是的,我們在十月就說過,目標比例將是26%。我的意思是,首先,讓我再重申一次。與十月相比,我們的預訂量甚至超額完成了計劃。此外,客戶流失率低於預期,非常重要的是,我們的折扣率也保持穩定。

  • Now why did we end up at 25%? What we have seen is that during the course of actually, the deal mix has changed. We closed larger deals. And I mean, it's quite standard in -- for a larger customer, oftentimes in the first year, they are shifting some smaller solutions to the cloud because the larger ERPs that needs time.

    那麼,為什麼最終結果會是25%呢?我們看到,在此過程中,交易組合實際上發生了變化。我們達成了更大的交易。我的意思是,這很常見——對於較大的客戶來說,通常在第一年,他們會將一些較小的解決方案遷移到雲端,因為較大的 ERP 系統需要時間。

  • First, to figure out how they would love to processes. We talk about clean core. But of course, there are also a lot of technical things to be figured out before you really lift and shift your most mission-critical system to cloud. So that was clearly, I would say, the largest factor.

    首先,要弄清楚他們會喜歡怎樣的流程。我們來談談清潔核心。當然,在真正將最關鍵的業務系統遷移到雲端之前,還有很多技術面的問題需要解決。所以很明顯,我認為這是最大的因素。

  • And the second one is actually that we have seen that actually, we performed much better in the public sector. And in some deals, you have a termination for convenience by law. So per se, we are not including this in CCB. And that was the only mix effect, I would say, we had compared to October.

    第二點是,我們已經看到,我們在公共部門的表現實際上要好得多。在某些交易中,法律允許為方便起見而終止交易。所以,就其本身而言,我們並未將其納入CCB。我想說,這是我們與十月相比唯一出現的混雜現象。

  • Again, bookings performance was ahead of plan. Now for some of the larger deals, where the slippages, I mean, in every quarter, you have slippages. But I would say the execution, the sales execution was actually -- was really good. I mean some of these larger megadeals what I was mentioning is actually that some of them close, some of them not.

    預訂量再次超出預期。現在對於一些較大的交易,我的意思是,每個季度都會出現延誤。但我認為執行力,銷售執行力,實際上——真的很好。我的意思是,我剛才提到的這些大型交易,其實有些會達成,有些則不會。

  • So clearly, also for 2026, we see actually a better pipeline coverage. Then when we compare the pipeline now compared to where we were at in 2025. Also, of course, one thing to consider what Dominik also mentioned is sovereignty. I mean in some countries of the world, in some industries, obviously, also deal cycles took a little bit longer. I mean with the geopolitical tensions, customers have more around sovereignty and actually, that also then reflects a longer negotiation cycles.

    所以很明顯,對於 2026 年,我們也看到了更好的管道覆蓋率。然後,我們將現在的管道狀況與 2025 年的管道狀況進行比較。當然,還有一點要考慮,那就是多明尼克提到的主權問題。我的意思是,在世界上的一些國家,在某些產業,交易週期顯然也需要更長的時間。我的意思是,在地緣政治緊張局勢下,客戶更加關注主權問題,而這實際上也反映出更長的談判週期。

  • Now for 2026, what means marginal decline or slight decline over the year, definitely not a 4 percentage decline. That is not what we are seeking for. It will be not such a decline like what you have seen in 2025. Also, again, given the strong pipeline, what we have now at the beginning of the year, also mentioning, I mentioned the 90% of deals, which included AI. I mean we see an even better trend for 2026.

    至於 2026 年,這意味著一年內略有下降或輕微下降,絕對不會下降 4%。那不是我們所追求的。2025年不會出現像現在這樣嚴重的下滑。此外,鑑於我們年初以來強勁的業務儲備,正如我之前提到的,90% 的交易都涉及人工智慧。我的意思是,我們看到2026年的發展趨勢會更好。

  • So you clearly see with BDC and AI, customers are now not only doing RISE to just reimaging their business model and try to a clean core. We see now in more or deals that also, of course, AI and BDC is kicking in as another growth driver, also helping, of course, the multiples of these deals.

    因此,您可以清楚地看到,借助 BDC 和 AI,客戶現在不僅在進行 RISE,而且還在重新構想他們的商業模式並嘗試一個乾淨的核心。我們現在看到,在越來越多的交易中,人工智慧和商業發展公司(BDC)當然也發揮了作用,成為另一個成長驅動力,當然也有助於提高這些交易的倍數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charlie Brennan, Jefferies.

    查理布倫南,傑富瑞集團。

  • Charles Brennan - Equity Analyst

    Charles Brennan - Equity Analyst

  • Great, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'll do two, if I can. Firstly, everyone is preoccupied with AI at the moment. I think you referred to a EUR2 billion saving at SAP over the next couple of years. Can you talk to how that's going to flow through the business? Are you going to extract that through natural churn in the organization?

    太好了,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話,我會做兩個。首先,目前大家都在關注人工智慧。我想你指的是SAP在未來幾年內省下20億歐元。你能談談這將如何在公司內部運作嗎?你打算透過組織內部的自然人員流動來提取這些資金嗎?

  • Or do we have to think more about other restructuring program? And then as you rewire the business towards a sort of AI age, how much of your R&D today do you think is based on AI-driven tools? And how much of your output today is focused on AI as opposed to some of the core products?

    或者我們是否應該更多地考慮其他重組方案?然後,隨著您將業務轉型為人工智慧時代,您認為您目前有多少研發工作是基於人工智慧驅動的工具?如今,你們的產出中有多少是集中在人工智慧領域,又有多少是集中在一些核心產品上?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Yeah. Talking about our internal transformation. Obviously, it's for us super important to also be credible to our customers. And indeed, I mean, all our business leaders already working with actually our product management teams on implementing certain AI use cases. For the EUR2 billion, that will be reached, obviously, by -- first, we will have a heavily growing business. And with that, we will just under proportionally grow our cost and head count base. And you will see the efficiencies.

    是的。談談我們的內部轉型。顯然,對我們來說,贏得客戶的信任也至關重要。事實上,我的意思是,我們所有的業務領導者都已經與我們的產品管理團隊合作,共同實施某些人工智慧用例。顯然,要實現這 20 億歐元的目標,首先,我們的業務將快速成長。因此,我們的成本和員工人數將按比例略微增長。你會看到效率的提升。

  • Obviously, in R&D. I mean, this is where the LLM modules alone can do magic on -- especially on the code generation side. But in other areas, obviously, our own AI foundation is kicking in where heavily also you need business data to build those smart agents, who can take over a lot of the work, what people are doing today. So today -- as of today, there is no restructuring blend. Obviously, can you hold this out forever? No. But today, I can tell you we're going to achieve that by just scaling our business way more than in the past with AI.

    顯然,在研發領域。我的意思是,LLM 模組在這方面可以發揮神奇的作用——尤其是在程式碼生成方面。但在其他領域,顯然,我們自己的 AI 基礎架構正在發揮作用,在這些領域,也需要大量的業務資料來建立智慧代理,這些智慧代理可以接管人們今天所做的許多工作。所以今天——截至今天,還沒有重組方案。顯然,你能一直堅持下去嗎?不。但今天,我可以告訴大家,我們將透過人工智慧將業務規模擴大到比以往更大的程度來實現這一目標。

  • Now on the R&D side, I mean, first, what we did is, I mean, we have great talent in the organization. But obviously, these talents are oftentimes spurred in development backlog. So already last year, we lifted and shifted a lot of our AI talents into the work to build the AI foundation to train our foundational module to build those AI agents. So a lift and shift has already happened. And for example, the things which are, of course, are becoming less and less generation, so we already automated 35% of the code.

    現在說說研發方面,我的意思是,首先,我們公司擁有非常優秀的人才。但很顯然,這些才能往往是在開發積壓項目時被激發出來的。因此,早在去年,我們就將許多人工智慧人才轉移到建構人工智慧基礎架構的工作中,以訓練我們的基礎模組來建立這些人工智慧代理。所以,一次升降和轉移已經發生了。例如,有些東西當然越來越少需要人工生成,所以我們已經實現了 35% 的程式碼自動化。

  • And then obviously, that will increase now also again significantly this year. So actually, the profile of a software developer is already changing quite significantly within SAP. Also again, investing and it's not a size of quantity of people. It's really about getting the best people, the best data scientists, the best AI developers on board, to actually build what I just lined out with the five growth drivers within AI.

    很顯然,今年這個數字還會再次大幅成長。所以實際上,SAP內部軟體開發人員的形像已經發生了相當大的變化。再次強調,投資與人數規模無關。關鍵在於找到最優秀的人才,最優秀的資料科學家,最優秀的 AI 開發人員,來建構我剛才提到的 AI 五大成長驅動因素。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • And maybe on the R&D side, let's not forget that I think one of the challenges we used to face very heavily is the enormous rigorous prioritization of what we are actually developing because there's such a scarcity of topics we can go after versus the -- in terms of opportunities they are. So, let's not forget that there is ample of wood to chop, so speak, on R&D to do things that previously we couldn't do using the modern technologies.

    或許在研發方面,我們不要忘記,我認為我們過去面臨的一大挑戰是,我們需要對我們實際開發的內容進行嚴格的優先排序,因為我們可以研究的課題非常稀少,而機會卻非常多。所以,我們不要忘記,研發方面還有很多資源可以利用,可以做一些以前我們無法利用現代科技做的事情。

  • And this is also why in terms of financial model, we stick to our 80% to 90% operating leverage. Yes, we're going to be at the lower end of that in 2026. But the last thing we want to have is putting mortgages on the top line. We really want to push the top line very hard aggressively investing and so we use these tools to really push the envelope and secure innovation and top line and to the head of the pack.

    這也是為什麼在財務模型方面,我們堅持 80% 到 90% 的營運槓桿率。是的,到 2026 年,我們的數值將會處於較低水準。但我們最不希望看到的就是把房貸列入財務報表的首筆支出。我們真的想大力提升營收,積極投資,所以我們利用這些工具來真正突破極限,確保創新和營收成長,並達到業界領先地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Frederic Boulan, Bank of America.

    弗雷德里克·布蘭,美國銀行。

  • Frederic Boulan - Analyst

    Frederic Boulan - Analyst

  • Good morning, Christian and Dominik. If I can follow up on the AI side. We've seen growing concerns about risks from AI impact in the SaaS. You made a strong picture around the kind of software dating ecosystem. It would be good to share in terms of AI traction, what percentage of existing cloud customers currently using your AI offering?

    早上好,克里斯蒂安和多明尼克。如果我能跟進人工智慧方面的工作就好了。我們已經看到,人們越來越擔心人工智慧對 SaaS 產業的影響所帶來的風險。你對軟體約會生態系統進行了清晰的描繪。就人工智慧應用而言,最好能分享一下,目前有多少百分比的現有雲端客戶正在使用貴公司的人工智慧產品?

  • I mean, it's good to have the kind of 90% of bookings now, including that, but it would be good to see existing customers using the product and give us a range of revenue uplift you're seeing in particular with some of the customers where you've seen earlier adoption?

    我的意思是,目前能達到 90% 的預訂率固然很好,但如果能看到現有客戶使用該產品,並向我們提供一些收入增長數據,特別是那些您之前已經看到採用該產品的客戶的收入增長數據,那就更好了?

  • From a risk standpoint, I mean, a huge amount of concern in the industry about new tools out there. You made a pitch about the relevance of your own models versus commoditized LLMs. But would -- do you see any of your customers starting to use different tools to respond to needs that they were previously addressed by SAP, either in core ERP or across HCM, et cetera.

    從風險角度來看,業內人士對市面上出現的新工具感到非常擔憂。你闡述了你自己的模型相對於商品化LLM模型的相關性。但是,您是否看到您的客戶開始使用不同的工具來滿足他們以前由 SAP 在核心 ERP 或 HCM 等方面滿足的需求?

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • I can start, Dominik, and please also comment. I mean, first on number of customer, customer adoption. As I already said, customer adoption of tool increased by ninefold, which is really significant. Starting when I compare this back to 2025 January. And then second, obviously, what we are seeing is, of course, now that we are developing deals more users are jumping on it. Customer is the one thing, number of users. And what we see is actually in the cloud based, a healthy penetration of our AI, around about 60% of our customers are already using our AI actively, 20% are on the way to it.

    我可以先開始,多明尼克,也請你發表一下意見。我的意思是,首先要看客戶數量和客戶接受度。正如我之前所說,客戶對該工具的採用率提高了九倍,這非常顯著。從我將2025年1月與2025年1月進行比較開始。其次,很顯然,我們現在看到的是,隨著我們推出優惠活動,越來越多的用戶開始參與其中。客戶是唯一因素,使用者數量也很重要。我們看到,在雲端,我們的人工智慧已經取得了不錯的滲透率,大約 60% 的客戶已經在積極使用我們的人工智慧,20% 的客戶正在朝著這個方向發展。

  • But also, please not forget and I know what the market is fearing right now. To give you one practical example, what in the business world, in order to deliver high-value AI, I mean, let's take code generation. Yes, of course. The LLMs can understand code, can find the patterns, understand how people use the code and actually are super powerful on that.

    但是,請不要忘記,我知道市場現在擔心的是什麼。舉個實際的例子,在商業領域,為了交付高價值的人工智慧,我的意思是,我們以程式碼生成為例。是的當然。法學碩士能夠理解程式碼,能夠發現模式,了解人們如何使用程式碼,並且在這方面確實非常強大。

  • There is no business data involved. Let's use a German customer. Actually, it started with an LLM to build a cash flow agent. No value because why, the LLM put, of course, on e-mail, support tickets and try to figure out why is this customer not paying. But what was completely missing is all the business data, the inventory data, the financial bank statements, the other data on the customer side is there's still a deal ongoing. Maybe that's blocking actually the payment of this customer.

    不涉及任何商業數據。我們以一位德國客戶為例。實際上,這一切都始於一個旨在建立現金流代理的LLM專案。當然,LLM 會透過電子郵件、支援工單等方式來找出原因,試圖弄清楚為什麼這位客戶不付款。但完全缺少的是所有業務數據、庫存數據、財務銀行對帳單,以及客戶方面的其他數據,因為交易仍在進行中。也許正是這個問題阻礙了這位客戶的付款。

  • So actually, what we did is we used this LLM. We brought it together with our AI station and our knowledge. And actually, what the customer did, they removed actually over 200 predictive, which they build on their own using our AI foundation. And in that example, you can actually replicate to every AI agent in the business world.

    所以實際上,我們使用的是LLM。我們結合了人工智慧工作站和我們的知識,將其整合在一起。實際上,客戶移除了 200 多個預測模型,這些模型是他們使用我們的 AI 基礎架構自行建立的。在這個例子中,你實際上可以將其複製到商業世界中的每一個人工智慧代理。

  • Second, we won a large deal with H&M. We actually build a prototype for them. I mean -- and that's what they are now going to implement on AI. We show them the personalized shopping experience in commerce, obviously, also using LLMS. But we combine it again with our AI foundation to better understand what did the consumer buy in the past to understand better patterns about what he clicked on the web page, et cetera.

    其次,我們與 H&M 達成了一筆大額交易。我們實際上為他們製作了一個原型。我的意思是——而這正是他們現在要在人工智慧領域實施的。我們向他們展示了個人化的電商購物體驗,當然,也使用了 LLMS。但我們再次將其與我們的人工智慧基礎結合,以便更好地了解消費者過去購買了什麼,從而更好地了解他在網頁上點擊的內容模式等等。

  • Then we went into returns claims management. Also that, we had this industry capability always in our portfolio. Now we are actually reimagining this industry capability with AI, making it smarter, making it more efficient when it comes to returns claims management. So -- and that is a very good example. We closed 1 of these mega deals. I personally was involved in. We didn't win it actually, again, only because, hey, cloud, core, that was the thing what we did a year ago. Now we are winning it because last mile delivery.

    然後我們進入了退貨索賠管理領域。此外,我們一直都具備這項產業能力。現在,我們正在利用人工智慧重新構想這一行業能力,使其更聰明、更有效率,尤其是在退貨索賠管理方面。所以——這是一個很好的例子。我們成功完成了一筆這樣的大單交易。我自己也參與其中。我們其實又沒贏,只是因為,嘿,雲端運算,核心技術,那是我們一年前做的事情。現在我們之所以能贏,是因為最後一公里配送。

  • Again, this customer, why to reinvent large mile delivery with an LLM? Again, they were missing business data. We pulled together. We showed them what we can build together with our AI foundation, and there were totally convinced. So to make this very clear, we are winning deals because of AI. We are not losing deals because of AI. And definitely, these deals are actually now leveraging AI to increase the win rate in Q4.

    再說一遍,這位客戶,為什麼要用LLM重新發明大哩程配送呢?他們再次缺少業務數據。我們齊心協力。我們向他們展示了我們利用人工智慧基金會能夠共同打造的產品,他們完全信服了。所以說清楚點,我們之所以能贏得交易,是因為人工智慧。我們並沒有因為人工智慧而失去交易。而且可以肯定的是,這些交易現在確實正在利用人工智慧來提高第四季的成交率。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • Maybe give a little bit of financial color around that kind of winning deals. I'm always a little bit nervous about how people compare our numbers to the industry. We have a constant currency closure, but don't forget, we had a massive devaluation of the US dollar. I think over the year, it was about 13% appreciation of the euro.

    或許可以稍微介紹一下這類成功交易的財務細節。我總是有點擔心人們會如何將我們的數據與行業平均值進行比較。我們一直處於貨幣封鎖狀態,但別忘了,美元曾大幅貶值。我認為過去一年歐元升值了約13%。

  • So our constant currency performance in SaaS, PaaS and there's also a different strategy. I mean, we are not investing massively in infrastructure. Actually, we have seen our infrastructure business decline. Frankly, that decline might slow as the sovereign solutions become more prevalent. But still, it will -- we will largely leverage third-party infrastructure. And this is pre of investment appetite right now in this frothy business. So we're very concerned about lack of opportunities to leverage that infrastructure.

    因此,我們在 SaaS 和 PaaS 領域的固定匯率表現也存在差異,並且還有不同的策略。我的意思是,我們並沒有在基礎設施方面進行大規模投資。事實上,我們的基礎設施業務已經出現下滑。坦白說,隨著主權解決方案的日益普及,這種下降趨勢可能會放緩。但即便如此,我們仍將主要利用第三方基礎設施。這就是目前這個泡沫化產業中投資意願的體現。因此,我們非常擔心缺乏利用該基礎設施的機會。

  • Now what we focus on is SaaS and PaaS, and we have delivered in Q4, a whopping 27% constant currency growth for that. if you transform that into comparable US dollar numbers, that's above 30%. Now you have seen some of our competitors, Dynamics and ServiceNow report numbers in Q4, which are hovering around the 20s. I think 19% to 20%, you've seen our largest competitors, some of them not in reaching 10%. And so I'd say that is the evidence that we are actually winning in AI as opposed to losing.

    現在我們專注於SaaS和PaaS,第四季度我們取得了令人矚目的成績,以固定匯率計算,這兩項業務成長了27%。如果換算成美元,成長率超過30%。現在你們已經看到我們的一些競爭對手 Dynamics 和 ServiceNow 公佈了第四季度的業績,這些業績都在 20 左右徘徊。我認為是 19% 到 20%,你已經看到了我們最大的競爭對手,其中一些甚至達不到 10%。所以我認為這證明我們在人工智慧領域實際上是在取得勝利,而不是在失敗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Castillo, BNP Paribas.

    本‧卡斯蒂略,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Ben Castillo-Bernaus - Analyst

    Ben Castillo-Bernaus - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Yeah, thanks for having me on. There's lots of positives in here, lots of large deals in the mix, either solving cloud opportunity, the high volume of AI and the backlog, record TCB. So that all sounds optically very encouraging, and we would that again, we ultimately still have CCB of some 25% in Q4 and still indicating the cloud revenues decelerate this year to come.

    您好,早安。謝謝邀請。這裡面有很多正面的因素,有很多大額交易,無論是解決雲端電腦遇、大量人工智慧和積壓訂單,還是創紀錄的TCB。所以這一切聽起來都非常令人鼓舞,我們再次強調,我們最終在第四季度仍然保持著約 25% 的 CCB,並且仍然表明今年雲端收入成長將放緩。

  • I guess could you help us just think about the changing landscape here, that growing mix of large deals in the pipeline that are converting the longer deal ramps. How should we think about that maybe term trajectory of total cloud revenue growth into '27 and perhaps beyond. Just help us with how you think about that pace of cloud revenue growth, either deceleration or scope for stabilization?

    我想您能否幫我們思考這裡不斷變化的形勢,即正在籌備中的大型交易越來越多,這些交易正在改變較長的交易週期。我們該如何看待2027年及以後雲端運算總收入成長的可能趨勢?請您談談對雲端運算收入成長速度的看法,您認為成長速度會放緩還是會趨於穩定?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Yes. I mean, good question. And for sure. When I'm looking back to October, there is definitely, I mean, honestly, also lessons learned at Q4, and we didn't see this in the forecast. But obviously, when you are then going into Q4, it's not unnatural actually that you have large deals, but you see it in the order entry.

    是的。我的意思是,問得好。當然。回顧十月份,確實有一些經驗教訓,我的意思是,老實說,第四季度也吸取了一些教訓,而這些經驗教訓我們在預測中並沒有看到。但很顯然,到了第四季度,出現大額交易其實並不奇怪,這一點可以從訂單輸入中看出。

  • I mean, we are this time really closed many more large deals. And again, what should you do? I mean, we saw this in the -- during the course of -- actually in December, where customers then said, okay, deal done, and now we are doing the phasing. And the phasing actually, I mean, should we now incentivize our people to keep the first 12 months up, that would be the wrong thing to do.

    我的意思是,這次我們確實達成了很多大單。那麼,你該怎麼做呢?我的意思是,我們在——實際上是在 12 月——看到了這種情況,當時客戶說,好的,交易完成了,現在我們正在分階段進行。至於分階段實施的問題,我的意思是,如果我們現在激勵員工堅持前 12 個月,那將是一個錯誤的做法。

  • Because, again, it's against the nature of how these transformations work. And also, I don't want to discount the renewal base. At the end, what matters for the company on the mid and the long term is the renewal base because that is what is driving the cloud revenue and the profits actually on the long term.

    因為,再說一遍,這就違背了這些轉變的本質。而且,我也不想忽略續訂用戶群。歸根究底,對公司而言,中長期來看最重要的是續約基礎,因為這才是真正推動雲端收入和長期利潤成長的因素。

  • And so when you look into 2026, I mean, Q1, Q2, Q3, actually, we are not having this larger share of large deals. And that's why we actually see -- we will see a similar pattern and about Q4. I mean, definitely, when you look into our support revenue base there are still some larger customers, and we need to make sure that, especially when it comes to the phasing of a deal, et cetera, that we have that wide. And -- but again, I would say there is definitely -- you can expect a similar pattern to what we have seen in in 2025, I mean, given what is left in the installed base?

    因此,展望 2026 年,我的意思是,第一季、第二季、第三季度,實際上,我們並沒有看到大宗交易佔比大幅上升。所以,我們實際上會看到——我們會看到類似的模式,大約在第四季度。我的意思是,當然,當你查看我們的支援收入基礎時,你會發現仍然有一些較大的客戶,我們需要確保這一點,尤其是在交易的分階段進行等方面,我們能夠涵蓋如此廣泛的客戶群。而且——但我再次強調,可以肯定的是——你可以預期 2025 年會出現與我們目前所見類似的模式,我的意思是,考慮到剩餘的安裝基數?

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • Maybe on the cloud revenue in terms of what we see going forward. First of all, we guided cloud revenues now for '26. And maybe just looking back at '25, I venture to say that the accuracy of forecasts on cloud revenues is actually by now extremely high. This is also due to the extremely high share of recurring more predictable revenues.

    或許從我們未來看到的雲端收入來看是這樣。首先,我們預測了 2026 年的雲端收入。回顧 2025 年,我認為,目前對雲端運算收入的預測準確率實際上已經非常高了。這也歸因於經常性、可預測性收入佔比極高。

  • And yes, because all the macro must being tariff disputes or the kind of sovereign debate we just mentioned, we were kind of many EUR75 million away from the midpoint of the guidance at the end of '25. Again, such a massive macro backdrop, I feel a 0.5 percentage point variance to the midpoint on growth is almost like forward accounting. So -- so rest assured that our revenue guidance also for '26 is of a similar kind of confidence level.

    是的,因為所有宏觀因素都必須是關稅爭端或我們剛才提到的那種主權爭論,到 2025 年底,我們距離指導中點還有大約 7500 萬歐元。再次強調,在如此巨大的宏觀背景下,我認為成長率中點0.5個百分點的波動幾乎就像是提前計算一樣。所以——所以請放心,我們對 2026 年的營收預期也同樣充滿信心。

  • TCB forecast is always a little bit more difficult because as we just learned, the granularity of what's exactly coming in the crystal ball is a little bit tickled. But I also want to highlight how we think about the bridge from CCB growth and cloud revenues.

    TCB 預測總是有點困難,因為正如我們剛才所了解的,水晶球中究竟會發生什麼,其細節有點難以捉摸。但我還想重點強調我們是如何看待 CCB 成長和雲端收入之間的橋樑的。

  • And if you, again, do the math for last year to calibrate your model, so to speak. It will be obvious once we publish our results, you will see the Executive Board compensation that we were thinking more a couple of percentage points decline as opposed to something bigger.

    如果你再計算去年的數據來校準你的模型,那就更好了。一旦我們公佈業績,結果就會很明顯,您會看到執行董事會的薪酬比我們預想的下降幾個百分點,而不是更大幅度的下降。

  • And then the two factors that weighed on us was first in the first half, it was a tariff debate where the bookings were lower and then the effect Christian mentioned as a surprise towards the year-end. So also there, I would argue that we do have our checks under control, how it kind of translates.

    然後,有兩個因素對我們造成了影響,首先是上半年的關稅辯論,導致預訂量下降;其次是克里斯蒂安提到的年底出現的意外影響。所以,我也認為,我們已經控制住了局面,情況就是這樣。

  • And when you translate the CCB of 2025 into 2026, please remember that the transactional dilutive effect is becoming smaller. It used to be close to 1.5 percentage point last year and it will be diluted to less than a percentage point. So I think the nice thing is about also when you look at the fill rate, I mean, what percent of the cloud revenue is adjusted for currency year. There's always a problem with CCB is at point value, which was an extremely high dollar change the other values are constant currency, if you really deeper that, you see the coverage with CCB for next year is actually quite good.

    將 2025 年的建交所指數轉換成 2026 年的指數時,請記住,交易稀釋效應正在減少。去年這一比例接近 1.5 個百分點,而現在將被稀釋到不到 1 個百分點。所以我覺得有趣的是,當你查看填充率時,我的意思是,雲端收入的百分比是根據貨幣年份進行調整的。CCB 的一個問題是其點值,這是一個非常高的美元變動,而其他數值是固定匯率。如果你深入了解一下,你會發現 CCB 對明年的覆蓋範圍實際上相當不錯。

  • So that also should give you some confidence about '26. And now going beyond that, I already mentioned what slide kind of reasonably means. You can then work from there and assume further dilution of the transactional part. So this is how I would think about it. It's actually stabilizing in some way.

    所以這也應該讓你對2026年充滿信心。現在,更進一步來說,我已經提到了「滑動」這個概念的合理含義。然後你可以以此為基礎,假設交易部分進一步稀釋。我是這樣考慮的。實際上,情況在某種程度上趨於穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mohammed Moawalla, Goldman Sachs.

    穆罕默德·莫瓦拉,高盛集團。

  • Mohammed Moawalla - Analyst

    Mohammed Moawalla - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. Morning, Christian, morning, Dominic. My question was really on the TCB. You talked a lot about sort of delays in recognizing some of this business into the CCB. We saw quite a steep decel in the sort of CCB growth versus a year ago, almost sort of 9 points to 10 points. Is there -- I know there's kind of a law of large numbers here but is there anything you can sort of comment on that's kind of going on here because you obviously talked about record number of larger deals. So I just want to better understand that dynamic.

    太好了,謝謝。早安,克里斯蒂安;早安,多明尼克。我的問題其實是關於TCB的。你多次提到在確認部分業務進入建交所方面存在一些延誤。與一年前相比,CCB 的成長出現了相當大的放緩,幾乎放緩了 9 到 10 個百分點。我知道這裡存在某種大數定律,但您能否就此發表一些評論,因為您顯然提到了創紀錄的大額交易數量。所以我想更好地理解這種動態。

  • And as a follow-up, could you update us perhaps on BDC and the momentum you're saying you've signed up a flurry of many partners. How is that sort of pipeline shifting? And what sort of do you expect in terms of contribution in 2026?

    作為後續問題,您能否向我們介紹 BDC 的最新情況,以及您所說的已經迅速簽下眾多合作夥伴的良好勢頭?這種類型的管道是如何轉變的?那麼,您預計到 2026 年會做出怎樣的貢獻呢?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Yes. I can start with the total cloud backlog. I mean actually, you said it really well. I mean at the end, the number is getting, of course, much bigger. When you look at the absolute growth we put on top to Dominik's point, I don't see any other competitor producing similar kind of numbers when it comes to the total cloud backlog, not even close.

    是的。我可以從雲端服務積壓問題著手。我的意思是,你其實說得很好。我的意思是,到最後,這個數字當然會變得越來越大。當你看到我們在 Dominik 的觀點基礎上實現的絕對增長時,我認為沒有其他競爭對手能在雲端訂單總量方面取得類似的成績,甚至遠不及我們。

  • And this year, yes, there were larger customers coming. But when you look at the RISE journey when we started this four years back, actually, of course, we started with smaller customers, midsized customers. And now there are these mega deals. And that will also continue, and they will just take a higher fair in the overall order of what we are converting to the cloud with RISE.

    今年確實有大客戶光顧。但回顧 RISE 的發展歷程,當我們四年前開始這個專案時,實際上,我們最初是從小型客戶和中型客戶開始的。現在又出現了這些超級大宗交易。這種情況還會持續,而且在我們透過 RISE 將業務遷移到雲端的整體流程中,他們將佔據更高的比例。

  • So I'm actually super proud also given that, I mean, the TCB is always then also, of course, depending on the contract duration. And that actually was stable. So we are not actually increasing TCB with longer on-track duration. We are actually increasing it by putting real business on top. And that combined also with a lower churn as we are closing more and more healthy business is actually, for me, a super positive sign also when it comes to the cloud revenue development, not only in 2026, but then also for many, many years to come.

    所以,考慮到這一點,我真的非常自豪,我的意思是,TCB 當然也總是取決於合約期限。而且它確實很穩定。所以,我們實際上並沒有因為賽道上行駛時間的延長而增加 TCB。我們實際上是透過將真正的業務放在首位來提高它的。而隨著我們關閉越來越多的健康企業,客戶流失率也隨之降低,這對我來說實際上是一個非常積極的信號,不僅對 2026 年的雲端收入發展而言如此,而且對未來很多年也是如此。

  • And then finally, when you look into grow, I mean, still, it's a smaller business than compared to our installed base business. But just last year, I mean, overall, we won over 3,000 net new customers. And that is, of course, midsized customers, but they will grow over time. The up and the cross-sell I mentioned of the business suite. So while the share of midsized SME business became smaller because some of the larger transactions happened and will happen, still, this business is going really well, and we are adding a lot of new logos to SAP.

    最後,當你深入了解成長情況時,我的意思是,即便如此,它仍然比我們現有的業務規模要小。但就在去年,我的意思是,總體而言,我們淨增了 3000 多名客戶。當然,這些客戶目前是中型企業,但隨著時間的推移,他們的規模會不斷擴大。我之前提到的商務套件的向上銷售和交叉銷售。因此,儘管由於一些較大的交易發生和將會發生,中型中小企業業務的份額有所減少,但這項業務仍然進展順利,我們正在為 SAP 添加許多新客戶。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • And maybe it's also worthwhile mentioning, if you look at the TCB, a CCB, which is basically the backlog year two and the following years is actually that ratio increased. So it gives you also more visibility in the other years.

    或許值得一提的是,如果你看一下 TCB,CCB,它基本上是第二年的積壓訂單,而接下來的幾年裡,這個比例實際上有所增加。這樣也能讓你在其他年份獲得更高的曝光率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Moerdler, Bernstein.

    馬克‧莫德勒,伯恩斯坦。

  • Mark Moerdler - Analyst

    Mark Moerdler - Analyst

  • Sorry, I had my mic off. I didn't want to quite an issue. So I'd like to make sure that we're really clear on the CCB and I know it's been a lot of the questions put on it. Can you give some order in to what you think was the most impactful for why the number was than -- the Street might have expected?

    抱歉,我的麥克風關著。我不想把事情鬧大。所以我想確保我們對 CCB 有非常清晰的了解,我知道很多人對它提出了很多問題。您能否分析一下,您認為導致該數字低於華爾街預期的最主要原因是什麼?

  • And can you also give us any sense on the economic impact of these sovereign cloud deals. Does it impact revenue lift to multiple or margin in any way, shape or other that it may take longer for the deals to close? Thank you.

    您能否也談談這些主權雲端交易的經濟影響?交易完成時間延長是否會對營收成長、倍數或利潤率產生任何影響?謝謝。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Yes. I mean the one factor, Mark, clearly, which changed over the course of the quarter. And again, it's absolutely positive for the years 2027 last. I mean we closed more larger deals. And then when you think about the phasing of such a deal I mean, first of all, you negotiate on the business case on AI, the AI use cases.

    是的。我的意思是,馬克,很明顯,有一個因素在本季發生了變化。而且,對於2027年來說,情況絕對是正面的。我的意思是,我們達成了更多更大的交易。然後,當你考慮這類交易的分階段實施時,我的意思是,首先,你要就人工智慧的商業案例、人工智慧的應用案例進行談判。

  • You think about, okay, what are the pillars, which are really important. You think about, okay, do we go supply chain first, finance, first, logistics, et cetera. And then during the course of the quarter, obviously, you start also then facing those deals. And as you then have many larger deals, and this was actually a quite significant shift. We actually saw that a lot of the revenue moved out from the first 12 months to year two, three and four. That was by far the highest impact we have seen compared to October.

    你要思考,好吧,哪些才是真正重要的支柱。你會想,好吧,我們是先從供應鏈入手,還是先從財務入手,還是先從物流入手等等。然後,很明顯,在這個季度中,你也會開始面臨這些交易。隨著交易量的增加,交易量也隨之增大,這其實是一個相當大的轉變。我們發現,許多收入實際上從前 12 個月轉移到了第二年、第三年和第四年。與十月份相比,這是我們迄今為止看到的最大影響。

  • On sovereign cloud, actually, no. I mean the deal margins are almost the same, but what Dominik already alluded to I mean the deal negotiation per se. I mean we are running not only where we mission-critical ERP systems, we are also wanting customers in regulated industries. And they have questions. You say, -- hey, what is happening if sanctions are coming? What is happening if there's an export coming, what is happening? It is AI data protection regulation is now redefined, et cetera.

    事實上,在主權雲上,並非如此。我的意思是,交易利潤率幾乎相同,但多明尼克已經提到的,我指的是交易談判本身。我的意思是,我們不僅在關鍵任務型 ERP 系統領域運營,我們也希望在受監管行業中獲得客戶。他們還有一些疑問。你說,--嘿,如果制裁要來了,那會發生什麼事?如果有出口貨物即將到貨,會發生什麼事?人工智慧資料保護法規現已重新定義,等等。

  • So, these discussions take just longer than they have been a year ago, and it's a reflection of what is happening in the world. This is not a reflection of a demand issue. Actually, it's good. Look, I mean, I always also start these conversations with when it comes to regulation, cost on one thing, SAP has your back. I mean we are spending over EUR1 billion on localization and regulations, et cetera. We are running these businesses in over 120 countries.

    所以,這些討論所需的時間比一年前要長一些,這反映了世界正在發生的事情。這並非需求問題。實際上,這很好。你看,我的意思是,在談到監管、成本等問題時,我總是會先提到 SAP 會為你提供支援。我的意思是,我們在本地化和監管等方面花費了超過 10 億歐元。我們在超過120個國家開展這些業務。

  • So we know how to adhere to all of these also new regulations. And I see discard as a competitive advantage that we can clearly say, hey, look, no matter where you want to do business or where you want to expand your business, SAP will have a software and cloud solution for you in the different parts of the world.

    所以我們也知道如何遵守所有這些新規定。我認為丟棄資料是一種競爭優勢,我們可以清楚地說,嘿,瞧,無論你想在哪裡開展業務或在哪裡擴展業務,SAP 都會在世界各地為你提供軟體和雲端解決方案。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • And also add is the certification step, which is required in many countries. So we see new offerings on the Infrastructure as a Service for sovereign in various countries, almost much roaming up, I can say. And there are certain requirements in different countries, and we now really see the first country certifying these products.

    此外,還需要進行認證步驟,這是許多國家所要求的。因此,我們看到各國為主權基礎設施推出了新的服務,可以說,這幾乎是一種普遍的漫遊。不同國家有不同的要求,現在我們終於看到第一個國家對這些產品進行認證。

  • So we are really at the in an embryonic phase of what could become something really big, but it's really happening because the capital is flowing there. the certification agencies getting their arms around it, but it takes some time to groom and mature these projects.

    所以我們現在真的還處於一個萌芽階段,但它有可能發展成一件非常了不起的事情,而這一切的發生是因為資金正在流入,認證機構也開始關注它,但這些項目需要一些時間來培育和成熟。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toby Ogg, JP Morgan.

    托比‧奧格,摩根大通。

  • Toby Ogg - Analyst

    Toby Ogg - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, Christian, Dominik, thanks for the question. Just on the free cash flow guidance, Dominik of EUR10 billion, clearly well ahead of expectations and looks to imply up in cash conversion. I know we talked through the year about cash tax, FX and the migration credit headwinds.

    嗨,克里斯蒂安、多明尼克,謝謝你們的提問。單就自由現金流指引而言,Dominik 給出的 100 億歐元顯然遠超預期,似乎意味著現金轉換率上升。我知道我們今年一直在討論現金稅、外匯和移民抵免的不利因素。

  • Could you just help us reconcile these headwinds with the better free cash flow outlook and improved cash conversion you're now expecting? Thank you.

    您能否幫我們解釋一下,這些不利因素與您目前預期的更好的自由現金流前景和更高的現金轉換率之間是如何協調的?謝謝。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • Sure. I would say the upside is from two sources, partially from operational further improvements, which we have matured to a point that we feel comfortable guiding it now, but also from the fact that the delta on stock-based concession between the P&L and cash is increasing. You've seen it already now in the numbers. You will see that in '25.

    當然。我認為利好因素有兩個方面,一部分來自營運的進一步改進,我們已經將其發展到一定程度,現在我們有信心對其進行指導;另一部分來自損益表和現金之間基於股票的讓步的差額正在增加。你現在已經從數字中看到了這一點。你會在2025年看到這一點。

  • So it's a little bit higher. We've always said take the effective tax rate of the non-IFRS operating profit add back around about EUR1 billion. So now I'd say around about EUR1 billion plus. So that gives us a part of the upside. And the good news is that sustainable.

    所以它稍微高一點。我們一直說,將非 IFRS 營業利潤的有效稅率加上約 10 億歐元。所以現在我估計大概在10億歐元以上。這樣我們就能獲得一部分收益。好消息是,這是可持續的。

  • So that's the new base basically to ramp off. Now on the transformation credits, it's always the game of the overall working capital. It's not the only item there. And from that perspective, for 2026, this is the best estimate we can give today. And yes, we also make sure that we have no mortgages in the future and can stick to that very simplistic formula with the noise that always will be there around the phasing of certain payments, but that's the trend.

    所以,這基本上就是新的起飛基地了。現在,在轉型信貸方面,關鍵始終在於整體營運資本。那裡不只這一件物品。從這個角度來看,對於 2026 年,這是我們目前能給出的最佳估計。是的,我們還要確保未來沒有抵押貸款,並堅持使用這個非常簡單的公式,儘管在某些付款階段總是會有一些幹擾因素,但這才是趨勢。

  • Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

    Alexandra Steiger - Global Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, Dominik, and this concludes our call for today. Thank you all for joining.

    偉大的。謝謝多米尼克,今天的通話到此結束。感謝各位的參與。

  • Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

    Christian Klein - Chief Executive Officer, Chairperson of the Executive Board

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

    Dominik Asam - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and ladies and gentlemen. The conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

    謝謝各位女士、先生們。會議現已結束,您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與,祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。