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Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us for Q1 2026 results presentation. Today's presentation will follow the usual structure. First Hector will talk about our results with a special focus on the performance of our global businesses in the context of our new strategic cycle. Then Jose will give a deep dive on our financials and then Hector will close the presentation with his final remarks before opening up for Q&A.
各位早安,感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第一季業績發表會。今天的簡報將依循一貫的架構。首先,Hector 將介紹我們的業績,並特別聚焦在新策略週期背景下,我們全球業務的表現。接著,Jose 將深入說明我們的財務狀況,然後 Hector 會在開放問答前以總結致詞結束簡報。
Before we start, let me remind you that this is the first quarter that we are presenting our results after the disposal of Santander Polska and using the new group reporting structure we announced in February. As a result, all underlying metrics exclude impacts from Poland, both in 2025 and 2026, to make the accounts compatible.
在開始之前,先提醒各位,這是我們處分 Santander Polska 後首次公布業績,並採用我們於二月宣布的新集團報導架構的第一個季度。因此,為了使帳務具可比性,2025 年與 2026 年的所有基礎指標均排除波蘭的影響。
Now Hector, the floor is yours.
現在,Hector,交給你了。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Raul. And good morning, everyone. Q1 was another excellent quarter for Santander, demonstrating the strength of our strategy and the resilience of our business model. Profits reached a new record of EUR3.6 billion, up 12% versus Q1 '25, supported by all of our global businesses, even after a EUR210 million modern finance provision in UK.
謝謝你,Raul。各位早安。第一季對 Santander 而言又是一個非常出色的季度,展現了我們策略的強勁力道以及商業模式的韌性。即使英國因汽車金融提列 2.10 億歐元的現代金融(modern finance)準備金,我們的獲利仍創下 36 億歐元新高,較 2025 年第一季成長 12%,並由我們所有全球業務共同支撐。
On the back of our solid franchise with a growing customer base, as we continue to enhance customer experience, leveraging on our global platforms. We achieved this as we continue to execute one transformation, making excellent progress towards a simpler and more integrated model. This is translating into tangible results, with our efficiency improving by 3 percentage points and underlying RoTE increasing to 15.2%.
憑藉我們穩固的特許經營基礎與持續成長的客戶群,我們持續運用全球平台提升客戶體驗。同時,我們持續推進「One Transformation」,朝向更簡化、更整合的模式邁進並取得卓越進展。這些正轉化為具體成果:我們的效率提升了 3 個百分點,基礎 RoTE 提升至 15.2%。
Our balance sheet remains very solid, with robust credit quality and a strong CET1 capital ratio, which reached another all-time high of 14.4%. In this concept of high capital levels, our underlying RoTE adjusted for excess capital would be around 16.5%. All this contributed to strong shareholder value creation, with TNAVps plus dividend per share growing at 19%.
我們的資產負債表依然非常穩健,信用品質強韌,且 CET1 資本比率再創歷史新高,達到 14.4%。在此高資本水準下,若將超額資本調整後,我們的基礎 RoTE 約為 16.5%。以上皆促成強勁的股東價值創造,TNAVps 加上每股股利成長 19%。
Going into more detail into our income statement, our P&L was very strong from top to bottom, with underlying profit growing double digits year on year. We delivered strong top-line growth, with revenue up 6% in constant euros, supported by all global businesses. NII and fees up 5% and 7% respectively, accounted for around 95% of total income, supported by a significant increase of 8 million customers and the network benefits we are capturing through our global businesses.
更深入看損益表,我們的損益自上而下都非常強勁,基礎獲利年增達雙位數。我們實現了強勁的營收成長,以固定匯率(以歐元計)計算,營收成長 6%,並由所有全球業務支撐。淨利息收入(NII)與手續費收入分別成長 5% 與 7%,合計約占總收入的 95%;這得益於客戶數增加 800 萬,以及我們透過全球業務所取得的網路效益。
Revenue grew while expenses fell, showcasing the positive effects of our transformation. LLPs were affected by Argentina, reflecting sector-wide trends in the country. Excluding Argentina, provisions declined 2% year on year. Finally, as I have just mentioned, we have the impact of the EUR210 million related to motor finance in the UK. All in all, as we have shown over time, our results are sustainable and less volatile than peers, even in the current uncertain geopolitical environment.
營收成長的同時,費用下降,展現我們轉型帶來的正面效果。貸款損失準備(LLPs)受到阿根廷影響,反映該國全產業的趨勢。若排除阿根廷,準備金年減 2%。最後,如我剛才提到的,我們也受到英國汽車金融相關 2.10 億歐元影響。總體而言,正如我們長期以來所展現的,我們的業績具可持續性,且相較同業波動更低,即使在當前不確定的地緣政治環境下亦然。
What we are seeing in our results clearly reflects the strategy we outlined at the investor day. Our business model is unique, as it combines global and in-market scale with customer focus and diversification across Europe and the Americas. This, together with our three-pillar core and supported by disciplined capital allocation and investment in data and AI, is delivering consistent results. This is not just a framework. It is a model that is already delivering higher revenue, lower cost, improved profitability and strong value creation.
我們的業績表現清楚反映了我們在投資人日所闡述的策略。我們的商業模式獨具特色,結合全球與在地市場的規模優勢、以客戶為中心的經營,以及橫跨歐洲與美洲的多元化布局。再加上我們以三大支柱為核心,並以嚴謹的資本配置及對數據與 AI 的投資作為支撐,正帶來一致且穩健的成果。這不僅是一個框架。這是一個已經在帶來更高收入、更低成本、獲利能力提升與強勁價值創造的模式。
Let me start with our customers. We are adding 8 million new customers year on year, making good progress towards our target of reaching 210 million customers by 2028, including the expected contribution of 8 million customers from TSB and Webster. At the same time, we are improving the economics per active customer, with revenue growing 3% and costs increasing 4%, driven by One Transformation. So, we are not only adding customers, but also increasing their value, exactly as we set out our investor day.
我先從客戶談起。我們的新增客戶年增 800 萬,朝 2028 年達到 2.10 億客戶的目標穩步前進,其中包含 TSB 與 Webster 預期貢獻的 800 萬名客戶。同時,我們也在提升每位活躍客戶的經濟效益:在 One Transformation 推動下,營收成長 3%,成本增加 4%。因此,我們不僅增加客戶數,也提升客戶價值,完全符合我們在投資人日所設定的方向。
We continue to deliver on One Transformation, driving operational leverage. At the investor day, we introduced a more granular cost-to-income framework with clear levels to track efficiency across the group. Simplification and automation have already delivered 1 percentage point of efficiencies. Our network businesses are also contributing 1 percentage point by driving customer primacy and capturing scale benefits.
我們持續落實 One Transformation,帶動營運槓桿。在投資人日,我們提出更細緻的成本收入比(cost-to-income)架構,並設定清楚的層級,以追蹤集團各單位的效率。簡化與自動化已帶來 1 個百分點的效率提升。我們的網路型業務也透過提升客戶主關係(primacy)並掌握規模效益,貢獻另外 1 個百分點。
Our global approach to technology is enhancing productivity by building once and deploying across the group, while we start to capture the benefits from AI even in an initial investment phase. And all of this is something that is entirely under our control. All of our global businesses contributed to group growth as we continue to improve profitability.
我們以全球化的科技策略提升生產力:一次建置、在全集團部署;同時,即使仍處於初期投資階段,我們也開始掌握 AI 帶來的效益。而且這一切完全在我們的掌控之中。隨著我們持續提升獲利能力,所有全球業務都對集團成長有所貢獻。
Customer activity and diversification drive revenue growth. Our customer focus and active balance sheet management continue to support our solid performance in retail. Openbank keeps delivering strong revenue growth, backed by an improved funding mix. Our network businesses are also performing strongly, especially CIB and payments, with double-digit revenue growth.
客戶活動與多元化推動營收成長。我們以客戶為中心的策略與主動的資產負債表管理,持續支撐零售業務的穩健表現。Openbank 在更佳的資金來源組合支持下,持續帶來強勁的營收成長。我們的網路型業務同樣表現強勁,尤其是 CIB 與支付業務,營收呈雙位數成長。
At the same time, we are extracting the full potential from our scale. We are improving efficiency across the group, delivering positive operational leverage. This, combined with our focus on profitability and disciplined capital allocation, is driving higher returns. The combination of global businesses and our geographical diversification puts us in a unique position to navigate the challenges for '26. For example, higher interest rates benefit some parts of our business, while other franchises and developed economies, such as Openbank or Brazil, perform better with lower rates.
同時,我們正充分釋放規模的全部潛力。我們提升全集團效率,帶來正向的營運槓桿。這再加上我們對獲利能力的聚焦與嚴謹的資本配置,正推動更高的報酬。全球業務與地理多元化的結合,使我們在因應 2026 年的挑戰上具備獨特優勢。例如,較高利率有利於我們業務的部分領域;而其他特許經營與已開發經濟體(如 Openbank 或巴西)則在較低利率環境下表現更佳。
In retail, we continue to transform our model to become a digital bank with branches, combining cutting-edge technology with the expertise and proximity of our teams. We are making strong progress in the rollout of our global platforms. Gravity is now fully implemented in Spain, Mexico, and Chile, and is ready to be deployed in Brazil during the year.
在零售業務方面,我們持續轉型,朝「有分行的數位銀行」模式邁進,結合尖端科技與團隊的專業與在地貼近性。我們在全球平台的推廣上取得強勁進展。Gravity 目前已在西班牙、墨西哥與智利全面導入,並已準備在今年於巴西部署。
At the same time, we are scaling our customer interaction platform, enabling greater personalization and increasing customer engagement and primacy. This is translating into tangible results. Fees grew 7%, cost per active customer declined 7%, and productivity keeps improving. As a result, retail's underlying profit grew 9% year-on-year, driven by strong operational leverage with good revenue growth, both NII and fees, and costs down 5%.
同時,我們也在擴大客戶互動平台的規模,以實現更高程度的個人化,並提升客戶參與度與主關係(primacy)。這正轉化為具體成果。手續費成長 7%,每位活躍客戶成本下降 7%,生產力持續提升。因此,零售業務的基礎獲利年增 9%,主要由強勁的營運槓桿所帶動:營收(NII 與手續費)良好成長,且成本下降 5%。
At the same time, asset quality trends remain robust, in line with our expectations, with cost of risk improving year-on-year to 1.07%, excluding Argentina. Looking ahead, we expect further profitable growth as we continue to scale our platforms, deepen customer relationships, and capture additional efficiencies from TSB and Webster.
同時,資產品質趨勢依然穩健,符合我們的預期;若排除阿根廷,風險成本年對年改善至 1.07%。展望未來,隨著我們持續擴大平台規模、深化客戶關係,並自 TSB 與 Webster 取得更多效率,我們預期獲利性成長將進一步提升。
With Openbank, we are building a more integrated, scalable, and efficient business supported by our global digital platform. We are transferring the business by simplifying the model, with a single legal entity in Europe accelerating cross-selling and AI deployment and the integration of our US businesses. Our focus on deposit gathering is improving our funding mix and supporting profitability.
透過 Openbank,我們在全球數位平台的支持下,打造更整合、更具擴展性且更高效率的業務。我們正透過簡化模式來移轉業務:在歐洲採單一法人實體,加速交叉銷售與 AI 部署,並推進我們美國業務的整合。我們聚焦於吸收存款,正改善資金來源組合並支撐獲利能力。
As a result, we are already seeing strong benefits, particularly in the US, where the digital bank has gathered $11 billion in deposits since launch, delivering around $150 million net funding cost savings annually. We are also strengthening our position in mobility finance, expanding beyond traditional auto lending.
因此,我們已看到顯著效益,尤其在美國:該數位銀行自推出以來已吸收 110 億美元存款,每年帶來約 1.5 億美元的淨資金成本節省。我們也在強化移動金融(mobility finance)領域的布局,擴展至傳統汽車貸款以外的業務。
In parallel, we are scaling our embedded finance capabilities through Openbank Pay and new partnerships. This is translating into progress on our performance operating targets and into a solid underlying financial performance, driven by strong revenue growth, continued efficiency gains, and credit quality under control, resulting in a 15% PVT growth, excluding motor finance. As anticipated, profit growth was impacted by the end of electric vehicle tax incentives in the US, with the tax rate now expected to remain stable. Looking ahead, we expect profit and RoTE to improve as we continue to scale the business, optimize funding, and deliver more efficiencies.
同時,我們正透過 Openbank Pay 與新的合作夥伴關係,擴大我們的嵌入式金融能力。這正轉化為我們在營運績效目標上的進展,以及穩健的基本面財務表現;在強勁營收成長、效率持續提升與信用品質受控的帶動下,剔除汽車金融後,PVT 成長 15%。如預期,獲利成長受到美國電動車稅收優惠到期的影響,目前預期稅率將維持穩定。展望未來,隨著我們持續擴大業務規模、優化資金來源並交付更多效率提升,我們預期獲利與 RoTE 將進一步改善。
In CIB, we continue to build a world-class business for our corporate and institutional clients, leveraging our global network and diversified model. We are deepening client relationships and strengthening our advisory capabilities, taking more relevant roles in complex and cross-border transactions supported by our integrated coverage model. At the same time, we are improving connectivity across markets and products, enabling us to serve clients more seamlessly and operate more efficiently.
在 CIB,我們持續為企業與機構客戶打造世界級業務,善用我們的全球網絡與多元化模式。我們正深化客戶關係並強化顧問能力,透過整合式覆蓋模式的支持,在複雜與跨境交易中扮演更關鍵的角色。同時,我們也在提升跨市場與跨產品的連結性,使我們能更無縫地服務客戶並更有效率地營運。
Collaboration across global banking, global markets, GTB, and commercial remains a key driver of our value creation and is increasingly extending across the group. A clear example of this is that GTB solutions are now embedded in more than half of our leveraged buyout and M&A mandates. Even in a more challenging context, CIB continues to deliver strong results with a profit of 16% year-on-year. At the same time, CIB continues to deliver one of the best efficiency ratios in the sector and an RoTE of 21%, reflecting our focus on profitability and capital discipline.
全球銀行、全球市場、GTB 與商業銀行之間的協作,仍是我們價值創造的關鍵驅動力,且正日益延伸至整個集團。一個明確例子是,GTB 解決方案如今已嵌入我們超過一半的槓桿收購與併購(M&A)委任案中。即使在更具挑戰的環境下,CIB 仍持續交出強勁成果,獲利年增 16%。同時,CIB 仍維持同業中最佳之一的效率比率,RoTE 達 21%,反映我們對獲利能力與資本紀律的聚焦。
In wealth, we continue to build the best wealth and insurance manager in Europe and the Americas, leveraging our global scale and capabilities. We have simplified the model into two clear verticals, enabling us to capture synergies and strengthen collaboration across the value chain. In private banking, we are reinforcing our global positioning, particularly in the ultra-high net worth segment supported by more specialized coverage. As a result, customer assets and liabilities grew 11% year-on-year.
在財富管理方面,我們持續打造歐洲與美洲最佳的財富與保險管理機構,善用我們的全球規模與能力。我們已將模式簡化為兩個清晰的垂直領域,使我們能捕捉協同效益並強化價值鏈各環節的協作。在私人銀行方面,我們正強化全球定位,特別是在超高淨值客群,並以更專業的覆蓋支持。因此,客戶資產與負債年增 11%。
In parallel, we are consolidating our insurance and asset management solutions, bringing together liquid, illiquid, and insurance products. We are building an integrated insurance platform across life, pensions, and protection, and could become one of the biggest deltas in the future. Collaboration across global businesses remains a key driver of growth, with distribution fees up 7% year-on-year.
同時,我們正整合保險與資產管理解決方案,將流動性、非流動性與保險產品整合在一起。我們正在打造涵蓋壽險、退休金與保障的整合式保險平台,未來可能成為最大的增量來源之一。全球業務之間的協作仍是成長的關鍵驅動力,分銷費用年增 7%。
In summary, this is supporting strong growth. Profit rose 11%, driven by solid revenue performance across business lines, on the back of strong commercial activity. Finally, payments are a high-growth platform business. We continue to scale our global platforms and strengthen our position across acquiring, processing, and cross-border payments.
總結而言,這正支撐強勁成長。在強勁商業活動帶動下,各業務線營收表現穩健,推動獲利成長 11%。最後,支付是一個高成長的平台型業務。我們持續擴大全球平台規模,並在收單、處理與跨境支付領域強化我們的地位。
In Getnet, we are expanding internationally and simplifying integration through a single API, enabling companies to easily scale across markets. Our platforms continue to enhance capabilities, supporting multiple payment methods and improving efficiency, while Ebury keeps expanding customer base and geographical footprint.
在 Getnet,我們正加速國際擴張,並透過單一 API 簡化整合,使企業能輕鬆在各市場擴大規模。我們的平台持續強化能力,支援多種支付方式並提升效率;同時,Ebury 也持續擴大客戶基礎與地理版圖。
This is translating into strong results, with revenue up 20%, a higher EBITDA margin, and a lower cost per transaction, with profit up fourfold year-on-year. Overall, the business is building strong momentum with clear upside as we continue to scale.
這正轉化為強勁成果:營收成長 20%、EBITDA 利潤率提高、單筆交易成本下降,獲利年增四倍。整體而言,隨著我們持續擴大規模,業務動能強勁且上行空間明確。
Our strong operational and financial performance is driving higher profitability and double-digit value creation for the 12th consecutive quarter. Underlying RoTE improved to 15.2%, reflecting our disciplined capital allocation strategy. At current capital levels, this is even more compelling, as it would be around 16.5% at normalized CET1, with further upside from M&A and One Transformation.
我們強勁的營運與財務表現,推動更高的獲利能力,並連續第 12 個季度實現雙位數價值創造。基本面 RoTE 提升至 15.2%,反映我們嚴謹的資本配置策略。在目前資本水準下,這更具吸引力;若以常態化 CET1 計算,約可達 16.5%,且併購(M&A)與 One Transformation 仍可帶來進一步上行空間。
Underlying earnings per share grew 17% as a result of TNAV plus cash dividend per share increased 19%, reflecting strong profit generation and the impact of buybacks. Including the full buyback currently underway, we have already returned EUR7 billion to our shareholders out of our commitment to distribute at least EUR10 billion for 2025 and 2026.
基本面每股盈餘成長 17%;TNAV 加上每股現金股利成長 19%,反映強勁的獲利創造能力以及庫藏股回購的影響。包含目前正在進行的完整回購計畫在內,基於我們承諾於 2025 與 2026 年至少分配 100 億歐元的目標,我們已向股東返還 70 億歐元。
I will now hand over to Jose, who will go through the financials in more detail.
接下來我將交棒給 Jose,由他更詳細說明財務表現。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Hector, and good morning, everyone. I will take you through the group's P&L and capital performance in more detail. But first, let me remind you, as Raul explained in his introduction, that this is the first quarter we are reporting after the disposal of Poland and under the new cost structure that we announced in February.
謝謝你,Hector,各位早安。我將更詳細帶各位看一下集團的損益表(P&L)與資本表現。但首先,讓我提醒各位,如 Raul 在開場時所說,這是我們在處分波蘭業務之後、以及在我們於二月宣布的新成本結構下所報告的第一個季度。
As a result, the impact of Poland is reported in the nonrecurring items line in both 2025 and 2026. We will also book in this line, the M&A-related charges from TSB Webster that will arise in the coming quarters. As usual, we present growth rates in both current and constant euros. The difference this quarter was around 2 percentage points, mainly due to the depreciation of the US dollar.
因此,波蘭的影響在 2025 與 2026 年均列示於非經常性項目一欄。我們也將在此欄位入帳未來幾個季度將產生的、與 TSB Webster 相關的併購(M&A)費用。如往常一樣,我們同時以當期歐元與固定匯率歐元呈現成長率。本季度兩者差異約為 2 個百分點,主要由於美元貶值。
Turning to performance. As Hector mentioned, we are yet again delivering record results for the eighth consecutive quarter with our transformation driving strong operational leverage and profitable growth. Revenue grew 6%, supported by solid business activity, while cost declined both in line with our public targets for 2026.
接著看績效表現。如 Hector 所提,我們再次連續第八個季度交出創紀錄的成果;我們的轉型推動了強勁的營運槓桿與獲利性成長。在穩健業務活動支持下,營收成長 6%;同時,成本下降,符合我們對外公布的 2026 年目標。
Loan loss provisions were impacted by portfolio deterioration in Argentina, reflecting sector trends in the country. In the rest of the group, provisions declined 2% year-on-year. The other results line includes a motor finance provision in Openbank Europe of EUR210 million. As a result, profit continued its upward trend growing 14% year-on-year in constant euros.
貸款損失準備金受到阿根廷投資組合惡化的影響,反映該國的產業趨勢。在集團其他地區,準備金年減 2%。其他損益項目包含 Openbank Europe 的一筆 2.10 億歐元汽車金融準備金。因此,獲利延續上升趨勢,以固定匯率歐元計算年增 14%。
Total revenue increased 6% year-on-year to EUR15 billion, in line with the target we set for 2026. This growth was underpinned by customer activity and 8 million new customers we gained in the last 12 months. All global businesses contributed to revenue growth, which was mainly supported by another record quarter in CIB, up 15% driven by strong client activity, especially in global markets.
總營收年增 6% 至 150 億歐元,符合我們為 2026 年設定的目標。此成長由客戶活動所支撐,且我們在過去 12 個月新增了 800 萬名新客戶。所有全球業務均對營收成長有所貢獻;其中主要動能來自 CIB 再創紀錄的一季,年增 15%,由強勁客戶活動帶動,尤其是在全球市場業務。
Openbank, which also performed well due to a strong net interest income growth, especially in Europe. And retail on the back of solid NII performance and our increased focus on fees. Payments and wealth also showed very good figures, with payments up 20%, driven by higher activity across business lines and wealth growing, supported by higher assets under management and focus on value-added products and services.
Openbank 也表現良好,主要受惠於淨利息收入(NII)強勁成長,尤其在歐洲。以及零售業務,在穩健 NII 表現與我們更聚焦手續費收入的帶動下成長。支付與財富管理也呈現非常亮眼的數字:支付年增 20%,由各業務線活動提升所驅動;財富管理亦成長,受惠於管理資產增加,以及聚焦高附加價值產品與服務。
The group's net interest income increased 5% year-on-year. The vast majority of this improvement comes from retail and consumer, but corporate investment banking also contributed to the overall growth this quarter. Additionally, NII was resilient in retail across most countries, even with less favorable interest rates in general, supported by higher volumes. Openbank delivered solid NII growth, driven by higher volumes in Europe and South America and an improved funding mix.
集團淨利息收入(NII)年增 5%。這項改善的絕大部分來自零售與消費金融,但本季度企業與投資銀行也對整體成長有所貢獻。此外,即使整體利率環境較不有利,在較高業務量的支撐下,多數國家的零售 NII 仍具韌性。Openbank 交出穩健的 NII 成長,受惠於歐洲與南美的較高業務量,以及更佳的資金來源組合。
In wealth, NII was impacted by deposit costs, reflecting the nature of the business in a lower rate environment, while in the Corporate Center, we see the expected sensitivity to lower rates. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, net interest income was slightly up for similar reasons, despite the usual seasonality in South America and a lower day count. Overall, this performance is ahead of our Investor Day guidance for NII.
在財富管理方面,NII 受到存款成本影響,反映在較低利率環境下該業務的特性;而在企業中心(Corporate Center),我們看到對較低利率的預期敏感度。以季對季來看,基於類似原因,淨利息收入小幅上升,儘管南美存在一貫的季節性因素且本季天數較少。整體而言,這項表現優於我們在投資人日對 NII 的指引。
We had another strong quarter in fees, up 7% year-on-year, supported by customer growth, increased activity and a better mix towards higher value-added products, driven by our network businesses and One Transformation. Growth was well diversified across our businesses. In wealth, fees grew double digits, supported by a strong commercial activity across business lines and favorable market performance.
我們的手續費再度繳出強勁的一季表現,年增7%,受惠於客戶成長、活動量提升,以及產品組合朝向更高附加價值產品改善,這主要由我們的網路型業務與 One Transformation 所帶動。成長在各項業務間分布相當均衡。在財富管理方面,手續費呈現雙位數成長,受惠於各業務線強勁的商業活動以及有利的市場表現。
Retail delivered solid numbers across our footprint, supported by customer growth. Openbank fees increased across our core markets as well, mainly Brazil, driven by portfolio expansion and higher insurance activity. And we saw double-digit growth also in payments supported by high activity levels with Getnet's total payment volumes increasing 11%.
零售業務在我們的整體版圖中交出穩健數字,受惠於客戶成長。Openbank 的手續費在我們的核心市場也有所增加,主要是巴西,受投資組合擴張與保險業務活動提升所帶動。我們也看到支付業務同樣出現雙位數成長,受惠於高活動水準,Getnet 的總支付交易量成長11%。
In CIB, fees were impacted by a softer performance in European countries after a record first quarter 2025, although the pipeline remains solid and supports trends going forward. One Transformation remains a key driver of our profitability improvement, leveraging our global platforms and connectivity to deliver operational leverage. This is reflected in our efficiency ratio, which improved further to 42.8% this quarter, supported by strong underlying business dynamics with revenue increasing and cost declining 1% year-on-year in constant euros or 4% down in real terms.
在 CIB 方面,手續費在2025年第一季創下紀錄後,歐洲國家的表現較為疲弱而受到影響;不過,案源(pipeline)仍然穩健,並支撐未來趨勢。One Transformation 仍是我們獲利能力改善的關鍵驅動因素,透過運用我們的全球平台與連結性來帶來營運槓桿。這反映在我們的效率比率上,本季進一步改善至42.8%,受惠於強勁的基本業務動能:收入增加,而成本以固定匯率(歐元)計年減1%,以實質計則下降4%。
In Retail and Openbank, which are leading our transformation and represents 75% of our cost base, costs declined by 3%, even in the context of the ongoing rollout of our global platforms and revenue grew 3%, resulted -- resulting in very positive operational jaws. In our network businesses, CIB, Wealth & Payments costs grew below total revenue and broadly in line with fee income, reflecting targeted investments in capabilities to drive low capital-intensive growth maintaining high recurrency levels. This excellent performance resulted in an 11% rise in net operating income from already very high levels last year.
在引領我們轉型、且占我們成本基礎75%的零售與 Openbank,成本下降3%,即使在我們持續推動全球平台上線的背景下亦然;同時收入成長3%,帶來非常正面的營運剪刀差(operational jaws)。在我們的網路型業務中,CIB、Wealth & Payments 的成本增幅低於總收入,且大致與手續費收入增幅一致,反映我們針對能力建置進行的精準投資,以推動低資本密集型成長並維持高經常性水準。這項優異表現使淨營業收入在去年已處於很高水準的基礎上再成長11%。
Looking ahead, even in a scenario of higher inflation, we expect to deliver cost reductions supported by the tangible benefits of One Transformation and additional mitigating actions both firmly under our control. Our balance sheet's risk profile remains low with solid credit quality across our footprint even in a more challenging environment, supported by prudent risk management and resilient labor markets in general.
展望未來,即使在通膨較高的情境下,我們預期仍能實現成本下降,受惠於 One Transformation 的具體效益,以及其他同樣完全在我們掌控之下的額外緩解措施。我們資產負債表的風險輪廓仍然偏低,在更具挑戰的環境下,我們各市場的信用品質依然穩健,這得益於審慎的風險管理以及整體而言具韌性的勞動市場。
Having said that, some of the reported metrics this quarter are imported -- are impacted by Argentina, reflecting sector-wide trends in the country in a less favorable context and should improve gradually as the effect of lower originations comes through. Excluding Argentina, credit quality remained very solid. Loan loss provisions were 2% down year-on-year, with resilient performance across the group in general.
話雖如此,本季部分已揭露的指標受到阿根廷影響,反映該國在較不利環境下的全產業趨勢;隨著較低放款承作量的影響逐步反映,相關指標應會逐漸改善。若排除阿根廷,信用品質仍然非常穩健。呆帳提存(loan loss provisions)年減2%,整體集團普遍呈現具韌性的表現。
Cost of risk improved 2 basis points and the NPL, the NPL ratio of 5 basis points to 2.94% with a stable coverage ratio. In addition, our NPL portfolio has collateral guarantees and provisions that account for almost 90% of its total exposure. Stages grew in line with our portfolio with a stable distribution across buckets. Retail and consumer represent 90% of the group's loan loss provisions.
風險成本改善2個基點,不良放款(NPL)比率下降5個基點至2.94%,覆蓋率維持穩定。此外,我們的 NPL 組合具有擔保品保證與提存,合計約占其總曝險的近90%。各分期(stages)隨投資組合成長而增加,且在各分桶(buckets)間的分布維持穩定。零售與消費金融占集團呆帳提存的90%。
In retail, we saw a strong cost of risk improvement, excluding Argentina, with solid underlying trends in key markets such as Spain and Brazil. In Openbank, cost of risk also improved supported by a strong performance in the US and resilient trends in Europe, even with the impact of Argentina. In Corporate Investment Banking, provisions were affected by some single names in Brazil and in Europe. As of today, we are not seeing significant deterioration in employment and credit quality remains stable. Moreover, it is in periods of higher instability when diversification -- diversification becomes more relevant.
在零售方面,若排除阿根廷,我們看到風險成本顯著改善,西班牙與巴西等主要市場的基本趨勢穩健。在 Openbank,風險成本也有所改善,受惠於美國的強勁表現以及歐洲具韌性的趨勢,即使仍有阿根廷的影響。在企業與投資銀行(Corporate Investment Banking),提存受到巴西與歐洲部分單一個案(single names)的影響。截至目前,我們尚未看到就業出現顯著惡化,信用品質仍維持穩定。此外,正是在不穩定性較高的時期,多元化——多元化的重要性會更加凸顯。
Looking ahead, it is still too early to draw conclusions on the geopolitical environment, given the level of uncertainty at the moment. However, as long as labor markets are not significantly affected, we would not expect material impacts on our credit quality targets.
展望未來,鑑於目前不確定性程度,現在仍言之過早,難以就地緣政治環境下定論。然而,只要勞動市場未受到顯著影響,我們不預期會對我們的信用品質目標造成重大影響。
Moving on to capital. We continue to generate capital at a strong pace, while growing the business. In the quarter, our CET1 ratio increased by 90 basis points to 14.4%. We generated 29 basis points of net organic capital. This was mainly driven by disciplined capital allocation to high return new opportunities with a new business return on tangible equity of around 21% and strong contribution from our risk transfer initiatives, which offset 20 basis points of risk-weighted asset growth.
接著談資本。我們在擴張業務的同時,仍持續以強勁速度產生資本。本季,我們的 CET1 比率上升90個基點至14.4%。我們產生了29個基點的淨有機資本。這主要由以下因素帶動:將資本紀律性配置至高報酬的新機會,新業務有形股東權益報酬率(RoTE)約21%;以及我們風險移轉措施的強勁貢獻,抵銷了風險加權資產成長的20個基點。
The disposal of Poland added 39 basis points to CET1, net of the EUR3.2 billion additional share buyback corresponding to around half of the capital generated from the transaction. In addition, regulatory and model updates contributed 20 basis points. Overall, the strong capital generation in the quarter puts us on track to end the year above 12.8% in line with our target. The impact from TSB and Webster, which we now estimate at around 210 basis points will be phased across the second and the third quarter.
出售波蘭業務使 CET1 增加39個基點(已扣除額外30億歐元的庫藏股回購;該回購約相當於本次交易所產生資本的一半)。此外,監理與模型更新貢獻了20個基點。整體而言,本季強勁的資本生成使我們有望在年底達到高於12.8%,符合我們的目標。TSB 與 Webster 的影響(我們目前估計約210個基點)將分階段在第二季與第三季反映。
Importantly, our performance in these countries is not dependent on integration execution alone. Our transformation plans are already delivering tangible improvements. For instance, in the US, return on tangible equity has reached around 12%, one of the highest levels in recent years. While in the UK, we are also seeing improving trends in both efficiency and profitability. All in all, our capital position remains very strong, supported by sustainable capital generation and profitable growth, with TSB and Webster strengthening our capital generation capability capacity going forward.
重要的是,我們在這些國家的表現並不僅取決於整合執行。我們的轉型計畫已在帶來具體改善。例如,在美國,有形股東權益報酬率已達約12%,為近年來較高水準之一。而在英國,我們也看到效率與獲利能力雙雙呈現改善趨勢。總體而言,在可持續的資本生成與獲利性成長支撐下,我們的資本部位仍非常強勁;TSB 與 Webster 也將在未來強化我們的資本生成能力。
Hector, back to you.
Hector,交回給你。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jose. As you can see, this is a great start of the year, and we are well positioned to deliver our '26 targets. Our businesses continue to show solid momentum with revenue growth, cost discipline and strong operational leverage supported by ONE Transformation. This is translating into record underlying profit, a stronger capital position and double-digit value creation.
謝謝,Jose。如各位所見,這是一個非常好的年度開局,我們也已做好準備以達成我們2026年的目標。我們各項業務持續展現穩健動能:收入成長、成本紀律,以及在 ONE Transformation 支持下的強勁營運槓桿。這正轉化為創紀錄的基本獲利、更強的資本部位,以及雙位數的價值創造。
In summary, we are delivering consistent and predictable results with very positive trends that we expect to consolidate in the coming quarters. On the back of this strong start, we reiterate our guidance for the year supported by the strength of our diversification, which, as Jose has mentioned, becomes even more valuable in periods of higher macro uncertainty and mitigating actions, particularly in cost which ONE Transformation enables us to deliver on our target even in a more challenging environment.
總結來說,我們正交付一致且可預期的成果,並呈現非常正面的趨勢;我們預期這些趨勢將在接下來幾季進一步鞏固。在這個強勁開局的基礎上,我們重申全年指引,並受惠於我們多元化布局的優勢;正如 Jose 所提到的,在總體不確定性較高的時期,多元化的價值更為凸顯。同時,緩解措施——尤其是成本方面——在 ONE Transformation 的支持下,使我們即使在更具挑戰的環境中也能達成目標。
Overall, we remain confident in our ability to deliver sustainable and profitable growth and to continue creating value for our shareholders. Our financial north star is clear, to deliver a RoTE above 20% by '28. This is about execution, disciplined capital allocation, ONE Transformation and scaling our global businesses to accelerate value creation, and that's exactly what we are delivering.
整體而言,我們仍對自身交付可持續且具獲利性的成長、並持續為股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。我們清楚的財務北極星是:在2028年前將 RoTE 提升至20%以上。這關乎執行力、紀律性的資本配置、ONE Transformation,以及擴大全球業務規模以加速價值創造——而這正是我們正在交付的成果。
And now we are happy to take your questions.
現在我們很樂意回答各位的問題。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks, Héctor. Let's move to the Q&A.
謝謝,Héctor。我們進入問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.
Ignacio Ulargui,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Ignacio Ulargui - Analyst
Ignacio Ulargui - Analyst
Thanks very much for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have two questions, if I may. One on capital. I mean after the good performance in the quarter that we have seen, how should we think about the buildup going forward in coming quarters? And if you could give us a bit of a sense of what has been the 20 basis points improvement in the later turns in the quarter. And Jose, whether we are still factoring the negative of 20 basis points per quarter headwind for the year that you flagged initially for 2026.
非常感謝簡報並回答我的問題。如果可以的話,我有兩個問題。第一個關於資本。我是說,在我們看到本季良好表現之後,我們應該如何看待未來幾季的資本累積?另外,能否請你們稍微說明一下,本季後段所提到的20個基點改善是什麼所致?以及 Jose,我們是否仍將你先前針對2026年所提示的「全年每季負面20個基點逆風」納入考量?
The second question is on Brazil. and the performance of NII has been very strong, but we have seen an increase in the NPL ratio. If you could give us a bit of some sense about what has been the driver of deterioration, how should we think about credit quality in Brazil and provisioning NII evolving from here? And I mean just -- you have probably confirmed that with extra comments that should we stick to the 100 basis points to 110 basis points guidance for cost of risk in the period '26-'28? Thank you.
第二個問題是關於巴西,以及淨利息收入(NII)的表現一直非常強勁,但我們看到不良貸款(NPL)比率有所上升。您能否稍微說明一下惡化的驅動因素是什麼?我們應該如何看待巴西的資產品質,以及從現在開始備抵提存與NII的演變?我的意思是——您可能也會用額外的評論來確認:我們是否應該維持在'26-'28期間成本風險(cost of risk)100個基點到110個基點的指引?謝謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Ignacio. So I will take first question on Brazil, and then Jose will talk to you about capital if it's okay for you. Okay. So it is important to understand, and let's put things into perspective, okay? So our loan book in Brazil only represents 10% of the total growth. That's basically great about what we have and the diversification that we have.
謝謝你,Ignacio。那我先回答第一個關於巴西的問題,接著如果你方便的話,Jose會跟你談資本。好的。所以重要的是要理解,讓我們把事情放在脈絡中來看,好嗎?我們在巴西的貸款組合只占總成長的10%。這基本上反映了我們所擁有的優勢以及我們的多元化。
So let's talk a little bit about the conditions we see in the country. GDP, we believe, is expected to grow around 1.5% in '26, even with this geopolitical situation. We see a resilient labor market, okay, despite, I mean, the rates that we still have in Brazil. It's important to say that Brazil is a [NATO] oil exporter, okay. I believe that's why we believe that GDP should benefit. But the problem is also gas and fertilizer prices could see inflation in the short term. Remember that Brazil is a very important food producer. And in that sense, basically, they get hit by that.
那我們來談談我們在該國看到的狀況。我們認為,即使在目前的地緣政治情勢下,'26年的GDP預期仍將成長約1.5%。我們看到勞動市場具韌性,好嗎,儘管——我的意思是——巴西目前仍維持在這樣的利率水準。重要的是要說,巴西是[NATO]的石油出口國,好嗎。我認為這也是為什麼我們相信GDP應該會受惠。但問題也在於天然氣與肥料價格可能在短期內推升通膨。請記得巴西是非常重要的糧食生產國。因此在這個意義上,他們基本上會受到衝擊。
The Central Bank began the easing cycle. In March '26, they got 25 basis points. They're down to 1,475. And we assume that SELIC is going to end up by 13% by the end of '26 and hopefully, 12% by the end of '27, in line with the forward curves that we have seen. Remember that every 100 basis points in SELIC improves NII by EUR60 million, okay? That basically tells you a little bit of the sensitivity that we have there.
央行已開始降息循環。在'26年3月,他們降了25個基點。目前降到1,475。我們假設SELIC到'26年底會落在13%,並希望到'27年底降至12%,與我們看到的遠期曲線一致。請記得,SELIC每下降100個基點,NII就會改善6,000萬歐元,好嗎?這基本上可以讓你稍微了解我們在那邊的敏感度。
Just to talk about, I mean, as you said, I mean, a strong -- very strong start of the year, Q1 '26 profit grew 6%, okay. Loan growth and market interest income is underpinning a 2% year-on-year increase in NII. Interest on capital is growing the tax effective rate overall, is setting a 2% year-on-year increase in cost that is quite good given the particular situation of inflation in the country. So and also, it's very important to tell you how we're managing the mix, okay? We're basically moving towards higher clarity business, maintaining a cautious approach to underwriting, particularly in the corporate portfolio.
再談一下——如你所說——今年開局非常強勁,'26年第一季獲利成長6%,好嗎。貸款成長與市場利息收入支撐了NII年增2%。資本利息正在成長,整體有效稅率帶動成本年增2%,考量該國通膨的特殊情況,這表現相當不錯。另外,也非常重要的是要告訴你我們如何管理組合結構,好嗎?我們基本上正轉向更高明確性的業務,同時維持審慎的承作(underwriting)方式,特別是在企業投資組合。
And these factors will support our path to 20% RoTE in the medium term, which is basically what we're aiming for, okay? It is important to say the cost of risk is around 4.1%, all right? It went up a little bit because of some single names that we were expecting because of the credit conditions and the interest rates in the countries. But nonetheless, we'll see it stable for the rest of the year. We have a couple of situations that we're monitoring very closely, but we don't see that we will affect the number anymore.
而這些因素將支持我們在中期達到20% RoTE的路徑,這基本上就是我們的目標,好嗎?重要的是要說,成本風險大約在4.1%,好嗎?它略有上升,是因為一些我們原本就預期會發生的單一客戶(single names),反映該國的信用環境與利率水準。但即便如此,我們預期今年剩餘時間會保持穩定。我們有幾個情況正在非常密切地監控,但我們不認為會再影響這個數字。
The outlook, as I told you, NII will be solid, and it's current, I mean, with the guidance that we have. In terms of the guidance on the total -- on the cost of risk, I think it's going to be around where we are. It is important to acknowledge the ones we get also and Webster that basically will decrease the overall cost of risk of the whole group. So we believe that we're going to be perfectly around the numbers that we told you in terms of guidance.
如我所說,展望方面,NII將會穩健,並且——我的意思是——符合我們目前的指引。至於整體——成本風險的指引,我認為大致會維持在我們目前的水準附近。重要的是要認知到我們也會獲得一些以及Webster,這基本上會降低整個集團的整體成本風險。因此我們相信,就指引而言,我們會完全落在先前告訴你的數字附近。
And with that, Jose, could you go into the capital please?
那麼,Jose,你可以談一下資本嗎?
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Hector. Good morning, Ignacio. The 20 basis points regulatory tailwind in the quarter comes from an updated model for what we call Carteritados, small SMEs in Spain. This is a new model. So it's structural. It's not a benefit that it's temporary.
謝謝你,Hector。早安,Ignacio。本季20個基點的監管順風,來自於我們所稱的Carteritados(西班牙的小型中小企業)之更新模型。這是一個新模型。所以它是結構性的。這不是暫時性的利益。
So it's here to stay. For the next three quarters, we would expect still some headwinds from updated models, inspections, et cetera, which, again, will be probably less than 20 basis points, somewhere between 10 basis points to 20 basis points in the next three quarters. So we feel comfortable and very confident that we will be above 12.8% by the end of the year, which was our target communicated at Investor Day. Thank you.
所以它會持續存在。接下來三個季度,我們仍預期會有一些來自更新模型、檢查等因素的逆風;同樣地,可能會少於20個基點,大約介於10個基點到20個基點之間,在接下來三個季度。因此我們感到安心且非常有信心,年底會高於12.8%,這是我們在投資人日所溝通的目標。謝謝。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks, Jose. Can we get the next question, please?
謝謝,Jose。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley的Alvaro Serrano。
Alvaro Serrano - Analyst
Alvaro Serrano - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Just a follow-up on capital. Because if I look at, I think, it's slide 25 on the capital bridge, it does look like you're going to be above that 12.8% to 13% -- even above the 13% range based on what you've produced in Q1. So can I -- can you sort of walk us through the rest of the year in terms of organic? I know you've touched on the capital headwinds. And if you are above 13%, should we -- extra distributions on the cards potentially, if you end up above 13% this year?
謝謝讓我提問。只是追問一下資本。因為如果我看——我想是資本橋的第25頁投影片——看起來根據你們第一季的表現,你們將會高於12.8%到13%——甚至高於13%的區間。所以我能否——你能否帶我們走一遍今年剩餘時間在有機(organic)方面的情況?我知道你已經提到資本逆風。如果你們高於13%,那麼——如果今年最後高於13%,是否可能會有額外的分配(distributions)?
And the second question is on cost. Obviously, a very good performance on costs. I've -- in particular, what stood out to me was UK, very large step down. Can you sort of maybe talk to that step down in cost in the UK? And is that sustainable? Can we see more even ahead of TSB? Thanks.
第二個問題是關於成本。顯然成本表現非常好。我——特別注意到的是英國,成本大幅下降。你能否談談英國成本下降的原因?而這是否可持續?在TSB之前,我們是否還能看到更多的下降?謝謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Alvaro. Okay. So on capital, it's very important to acknowledge that we have expressed you or we have told you about really exact capital here that we have, okay? So it's very important to understand that, I mean, if we continue and we're able to deploy capital at the levels we deploy in it above 20% in our organic business, we will continue to do so because I believe it's in the best interest of our shareholders to reinvest capital at those levels. And we see that opportunity, we will take it. If not, I mean, you have the whole capital hurricane, which you know exactly what we're going to do. If we don't have that capital to be deployed, then as can explain to you what we can do about that.
謝謝你,Alvaro。好的。關於資本,非常重要的是要認知到,我們已向你表達或我們已告訴你我們目前真正精確的資本狀況,好嗎?因此非常重要的是要理解,我的意思是,如果我們持續並且能夠以我們在有機業務中超過20%的水準來部署資本,我們就會繼續這麼做,因為我相信以這樣的水準再投資資本符合股東的最佳利益。而我們看到這個機會,就會把握。如果沒有——我的意思是——你有整套資本「hurricane」,你也很清楚我們會怎麼做。如果我們沒有可部署的資本,那麼我可以向你說明我們可以怎麼處理。
In terms of cost, yes, we have a pretty good numbers on cost. The reason is perfectly explainable, it's ONE Transformation. Remember, ONE Transformation is we're simplifying as much as we can. We are automatizing all processes. We are eliminating a whole bunch of people that we have in operations, we're sending that people basically to concentrate on the front line in order to be serving customers and trying to transform completely the way service within the bank.
就成本而言,是的,我們在成本方面有相當不錯的數字。原因完全可以解釋:這是「ONE Transformation」。請記住,ONE Transformation 就是我們盡可能地簡化。我們正在將所有流程自動化。我們正在精簡一大批在營運端的人力,基本上把這些人調往前線,以便服務客戶,並試圖徹底改變銀行內部的服務方式。
And that's basically what's going on. And that's why you see the operating leverage you saw in the UK with revenues basically going up and cost coming down. And you will see continue -- I mean that trend will continue even without TSB because we believe that we can run that bank in a much leaner way. We had a lot of finality. We had a lot of complications. We're simplifying in a very important way.
這基本上就是正在發生的事情。這也是為什麼你會看到英國的營運槓桿:收入基本上上升、成本下降。而且你會看到這個趨勢會持續——我的意思是,即使沒有 TSB,這個趨勢也會延續,因為我們相信我們可以用更精實的方式來經營那家銀行。我們過去有很多終局性安排。我們有很多複雜性。我們正在以非常重要的方式進行簡化。
So yes, you will see costs coming down in the UK towards the end of the year. And then we would do actually much better once combined with CSG with the synergies that we will get there, okay? I don't know, Jose, if you want to complement on capital.
所以是的,你會看到英國的成本在今年年底前下降。然後一旦與 CSG 合併,透過我們將取得的協同效益,我們實際上會做得更好,好嗎?Jose,我不知道你是否想補充一下資本方面。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Morning, Alvaro. In the first quarter, we generated 29 basis points of organic capital because risk-weighted asset growth was zero. So we were able to mobilize assets more or less in the same amount of growth. That's a condition that obviously has two components. One is the growth. The other one is the capacity to mobilize assets in the next three quarters.
早安,Alvaro。第一季我們產生了 29 個基點的有機資本,因為風險加權資產成長為零。因此我們能夠動員資產,成長量大致相同。這個條件顯然有兩個組成部分。一個是成長。另一個是在接下來三個季度動員資產的能力。
So we obviously depend on the markets and demand for private credit in the next three quarters to be able to meet that condition. So as long as the conditions remain, that part will continue to perform as it performed in the first quarter, but it is not entirely under our control.
因此,我們顯然取決於市場以及未來三個季度私人信貸的需求,才能滿足該條件。所以只要條件維持,這部分就會像第一季那樣持續表現,但並非完全在我們控制之下。
Second, we had a good performance in deductions in the first quarter, which, obviously, we're working very, very hard to continue delivering good numbers in terms of deductions, but again, these depend factors that do not entirely depend on us. for instance, the valuation of pensions, the valuation of the available-for-sale portfolio, et cetera, et cetera.
第二,第一季我們在扣減項(deductions)方面表現良好;當然,我們非常、非常努力要持續交出扣減項的好數字,但同樣地,這些取決於一些並非完全由我們決定的因素,例如退休金估值、可供出售投資組合的估值,等等。
And then we have the up to 20 basis points regulatory headwinds that I mentioned. So in a perfect scenario where everything behaves well, et cetera, come, we have three quarters more or less in line with the first quarter. It may be. But again, that I don't think should be our central scenario.
然後還有我提到的最高 20 個基點的監管逆風。所以在一個完美情境下,若一切表現良好等等,我們接下來三個季度大致可能與第一季相當。有可能。但同樣地,我不認為那應該是我們的核心情境。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much. Could we have the next question, please?
非常感謝。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.
Andrea Filtri,Mediobanca。
Andrea Filtri - Analyst
Andrea Filtri - Analyst
Thank you for my question. I wanted to insist on the capital side, you're only 60 basis points away from your 13% target for year-end, so only 40 to your 12.8% you have just said that it's not impossible you could repeat, could we then expect an acceleration in growth? And where would you see the businesses within the group that can absorb more growth?
謝謝你的提問。我想再追問資本面:你們距離年底 13% 的目標只差 60 個基點,所以距離你剛剛說不排除可以重複的 12.8% 只差 40 個基點;那我們是否可以預期成長會加速?而在集團內,你認為哪些業務可以吸收更多成長?
And secondly, I don't know if you could comment a little bit about the UK our financing charges and if you consider it done for the current level? Thank you.
第二,我不知道你是否可以稍微評論一下英國的融資費用(financing charges),以及你是否認為在目前水準已經告一段落?謝謝。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
I think I explained the quarter. I'm not saying that we -- obviously, could we have three quarters aligned with first quarter? Yes. That I don't think is a central scenario, basically because, one, we should be able to mobilize assets at the same rate we did in the first quarter, which is EUR10 billion. Well, hopefully, we will. But obviously, it's not 100% certain.
我想我已經解釋了這一季的情況。我不是說我們——當然,我們能否有三個季度與第一季一致?可以。但我不認為那是核心情境,主要因為第一,我們必須能以第一季同樣的速度動員資產,也就是 100 億歐元。嗯,希望我們可以。但顯然並非 100% 確定。
Second, we grew assets in the first quarter at a relatively healthy pace because we were able to deploy that capital at over 20% return on tangible equity. As long as we can find opportunities to invest at that level will continue to invest at that level. And if we have more opportunities, obviously, we will invest more. But that's something, again, that depends on the opportunity to grow. So 60 basis points to 13%, 40 basis points to 12.8%. I think, again, is, as I said at the beginning, we feel confident that we will be above 12.8% at year-end.
第二,第一季我們以相對健康的速度增加資產,因為我們能以超過 20% 的有形股東權益報酬率(RoTE)部署那部分資本。只要我們能找到以該水準投資的機會,我們就會持續以該水準投資。如果有更多機會,顯然我們會投資更多。但這同樣取決於成長機會。所以距離 13% 還差 60 個基點、距離 12.8% 還差 40 個基點。我想,如同我一開始所說,我們有信心年底會高於 12.8%。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrea, this is Hector. Just basically, I mean, to complement a little bit, and what you have asked is you said, I mean, what businesses can we have more growth. I think we have a great opportunity. It meets at corporates and SMEs. So if we see an opportunity to reinvest and we see that the market is strong, we could be looking at basically growing that and using capital because the returns are pretty good.
Andrea,我是 Hector。基本上,我補充一下你問的:哪些業務可以有更多成長。我認為我們有很好的機會。主要在企業客戶與中小企業(SMEs)。所以如果我們看到再投資的機會,並且市場強勁,我們可能會考慮擴大那部分並運用資本,因為回報相當不錯。
And you have markets such as Mexico, A little bit on Brazil, if the situation basically goes better, in the US as well. We've also been seeing an opportunity in the UK We grew the portfolio on CCB in the UK, EUR1.6 billion this quarter because we saw the opportunity and the spreads are there, because some of the players have gone out of market.
而且你有像墨西哥這樣的市場;巴西也有一些,如果情勢好轉的話;美國也是。我們也在英國看到機會:本季我們在英國的 CCB 投資組合增加了 16 億歐元,因為我們看到了機會、利差也在,因為有些參與者已退出市場。
So we see an opportunity in some places. But we always will be very, I would say, focused on profitability and very disciplined in the way we deploy that capital, okay? And this is what we have. In the UK Motor Finance, it's important to say, okay, we booked an additional EUR207 million pretax provision this quarter.
所以我們在一些地方看到機會。但我們一向會非常——我會說——以獲利能力為重,並且在資本配置上非常自律,好嗎?這就是我們的做法。至於英國汽車融資(Motor Finance),重要的是要說:本季我們額外提列了 2.07 億歐元的稅前準備金。
Current stock provision on this matter is at -- sorry, EUR725 million, that's GBP633 million. And I do believe that we're very well covered on our expectations. You know that this is always a moving target, given that some of the customers basically can go on to directly, et cetera, but we don't expect that to be much more than we have already have done. So we believe we're done on that. Thank you.
目前針對此事項的準備金存量為——抱歉——7.25 億歐元,也就是 6.33 億英鎊。我相信就我們的預期而言,覆蓋相當充足。你知道這總是一個移動目標,因為部分客戶基本上可能會直接採取行動等等,但我們不預期會比我們已經做的更多太多。所以我們認為這部分已經處理完畢。謝謝。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much, Hector and Jose. Could we have the next question, please?
非常感謝,Hector 和 Jose。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Cecilia Romero, Barclays.
Cecilia Romero,Barclays。
Cecilia Romero Reyes - Equity Analyst
Cecilia Romero Reyes - Equity Analyst
Thank you very much for taking my question. My first question is on asset qualities. With recent market volatility, are there any areas or geographies of cushion emerging, and specifically on Argentina and Mexico, where cost of risk has a step-up quarter-on-quarter. Can you walk us through the key drivers of how do we think about the run rate for the rest of the year?
非常感謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題是關於資產品質。在近期市場波動下,是否有任何領域或地理區域開始出現緩衝(cushion),特別是阿根廷與墨西哥,其風險成本(cost of risk)較上一季有所上升。你能否帶我們了解一下主要驅動因素,以及我們該如何看待今年剩餘時間的常態化水準(run rate)?
And also following stress cases in private credit, how should we think about Santander's poster and risk controls in this area? And finally, could you provide an update on the process and regulatory time lines for the TSB and Webster acquisitions?
另外,鑑於私人信貸的壓力情境,我們應如何看待 Santander 在此領域的部位(exposure)與風險控管?最後,你能否更新一下 TSB 與 Webster 收購案的流程與監管時程?
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Cecilia. Okay, very quickly, okay. By geographies, our diversification is actually quite good in this particular case because we're exactly in the part of the world that I believe that the geopolitical situation is which we are more -- much more defensive and we see countries that could benefit such as I was explaining Brazil and Mexico that could benefit for the whole thing. So -- and also we see the US basically coming very strong. So in that sense, I do believe that we are located in the best places right now as of this situation.
謝謝你,Cecilia。好,非常快地說一下,好。就地理分布而言,我們在這個特定情況下的多元化其實相當不錯,因為我們正好位於我認為地緣政治局勢所處的那一部分世界——我們更具防禦性,而且我們看到一些可能受益的國家,例如我先前解釋過的巴西與墨西哥,可能會從整體情勢中受益。所以——另外我們也看到美國基本上表現得非常強勁。因此,就這個意義而言,我確實相信,以目前這個情況來看,我們所在的位置是最好的。
Situation in Argentina to be very happy. I mean, and I was actually in Argentina, not lost so long ago. It is important to acknowledge what's been going on in Argentina. The government is basically -- main goal is to decrease inflation. By decreasing inflation, they basically actually, there is no pesos in the market. They are basically drawing off the market in terms of pesos. So the spreads have grown up tremendously, so that you basically have a real rate that goes almost to 40%.
阿根廷的情況讓人非常高興。我的意思是,我其實不久前才在阿根廷。重要的是要認知阿根廷正在發生的事情。政府基本上——主要目標是降低通膨。透過降低通膨,他們基本上其實讓市場上沒有披索。他們基本上是在披索面向把流動性從市場抽走。因此利差大幅擴大,結果你會看到實質利率幾乎接近40%。
Inflation, we believe in Argentina, last time we checked, was around 2% per month, that basically, we believe inflation in Argentina would be around 24% to 30%, let's say that. And rates are at around 60%. So with rates at that level, it's impossible to the consumer market. We started to lend a little bit to give a live of credit cards and to start creating a real bank in the country.
我們認為阿根廷的通膨,上次我們查看時,大約是每月2%,也就是說,我們認為阿根廷通膨大約會在24%到30%之間,就這麼說吧。而利率大約在60%。在這樣的利率水準下,消費者市場是不可能運作的。我們開始小幅放款,讓信用卡業務有一些生機,並開始在該國打造一個真正的銀行。
Unfortunately, with those real rates that hasn't come down as fast as we thought that we're going to be. I mean, customers started basically to get into delinquency because they couldn't afford the real rates as much.
不幸的是,在這些實質利率之下,利率下降的速度沒有我們原先想的那麼快。我的意思是,客戶基本上開始出現逾期,因為他們無法負擔這麼高的實質利率。
So we basically closed on completely, and we are just doing loans to the corporates that basically have dollars and with the dollars that we have, we're lending to them. Cost of risk went all the way to 9% to 7% Okay. We believe that it should normalize at around 7%. That's what we expect, and we are under control completely because we're not lending to consumer anymore, okay?
所以我們基本上完全停止了(對消費者)放款,我們現在只對企業放款——也就是那些基本上持有美元的企業;我們用我們持有的美元資金借給他們。風險成本一路升到9%到7%,好。我們認為它應該會在大約7%附近正常化。這是我們的預期,而且我們完全在掌控之中,因為我們已經不再對消費者放款了,好嗎?
And we believe that if the government continues the way it goes, real rates should come down towards the end of the year, and we could come back to the market to start lending again. But at this point, that's not the case, and we will be monitoring the situation very closely.
我們認為,如果政府持續目前的路線,實質利率應該會在年底前後下降,屆時我們可以回到市場重新開始放款。但就目前而言,情況並非如此,我們會非常密切地監控局勢。
In terms of Mexico, look, I mean, cost of risk is around 2.7%. We have been taking measures into that. We changed the mix, and I explained to you last quarter that we were much concentrated in CIB, in lending to the midsized corporates and SMEs, and we stopped basically -- you see our credit card portfolio went down 7% year-on-year. That's what we believe that Mexico was going to suffer always, I mean, when there is inflation and this turnabout Mexico softens a little bit. We believe that is under control, and it's going to be below 3% for the end of the year. So no worries on that.
至於墨西哥,你看,我的意思是,風險成本大約在2.7%。我們一直在採取措施因應。我們調整了組合,我在上一季也向你解釋過,我們更集中在CIB,也就是對中型企業與中小企業放款,而我們基本上停止了——你可以看到我們的信用卡投資組合年減7%。我們一直認為墨西哥在通膨與這種轉折時期總是會受到影響,經濟會稍微放緩。我們認為這在掌控之中,年底前會低於3%。所以不用擔心。
In terms of private credit, look, this is not a core business for us, as you know. It's less than 1% of the total portfolio of the bank. We are very much concentrated in the very good names in the market. 70% of what we have outstanding there is subscription lines to the best names in the industry. So we don't foresee any problems on that.
至於私募信貸,你看,這不是我們的核心業務,如你所知。它占銀行總投資組合不到1%。我們非常集中在市場上非常優質的標的;我們在那裡的未償部位有70%是提供給業界最佳機構的認購額度(subscription lines)。因此我們不預期會有任何問題。
And the other risk that we have is very much concentrated in what we know best, which is project finance, which is energy. So nothing really in our views to worry about. But it's important to acknowledge that we have put a lot of controls in place, that we have a lot of governance, and we are tightening up a little bit just to be completely sure that we are on the right side on the things.
而我們的其他風險也非常集中在我們最熟悉的領域,也就是專案融資,亦即能源。所以就我們的觀點而言,沒有什麼真正需要擔心的。但重要的是要認知,我們已經建立了很多控管措施,有很多治理機制,而且我們也稍微收緊了一些,只是為了完全確保我們站在正確的一邊。
And in terms of TSB, we believe that the transaction, as you know, was just authorized. We're going to enter into the part 7 situation. Numbers shall come in, in the second quarter of the year. And on the other side, the situation with Webster is going a little better than we expected in timing, but it's going to be for sure in the second half of the year. Okay. Thank you, Cecilia.
至於TSB,我們認為這筆交易,如你所知,剛剛已獲核准。我們將進入第7部分(part 7)的程序。相關數字會在今年第二季進來。另一方面,與Webster的情況在時程上比我們預期的稍微好一些,但可以確定會落在今年下半年。好。謝謝你,Cecilia。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much, Hector. We get the next question, please.
非常感謝你,Hector。請接下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Francisco Riquel, Alantra.
Francisco Riquel,Alantra。
Francisco Riquel - Analyst
Francisco Riquel - Analyst
Yes, thank you for taking my questions. My first one is, in the US, Cost of risk is better than what I expecting trending down. So if you can update on your guidance for the year on cost of risk in the US and comment on asset quality particularly in auto lending in the US, I see the loan book here is shrinking. And on CIB, the loan book here is growing strongly, what you can comment on risk taking here in this book?
是的,謝謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題是,在美國,風險成本比我預期的更好,且呈下降趨勢。所以能否更新一下你們對今年美國風險成本的指引,並評論一下資產品質,特別是美國汽車貸款;我看到這裡的貸款餘額正在縮小。另外在CIB方面,這裡的貸款餘額強勁成長,你們能否評論一下在這個組合中的風險承擔情況?
And then also, my second question is on Brazil. I wonder, NII has come a bit better than I was expecting. So what is driving the rise in NIM in Q1, I see a 30 bps decline the retail NIM, as you report, but then the total NIM in the country is up 15 basis points in the quarter. So what trends shall we expect for the rest of the year?
然後,我的第二個問題是關於巴西。我想,淨利息收入(NII)比我預期的好一些。那麼,第一季淨利差(NIM)上升的驅動因素是什麼?我看到如你們所報告,零售NIM下降了30個基點,但該國整體NIM在本季卻上升了15個基點。所以今年剩餘時間我們應該預期什麼趨勢?
And lastly, a follow-up question on asset quality in Brazil. I understand the government is preparing a new decent rollout plan to help individuals renegotiate debts? What impact if any shall we expect? Thank you.
最後,追問一個關於巴西資產品質的問題。我理解政府正在準備推出一個新的債務展期/推動計畫,協助個人重新協商債務?我們應該預期會有什麼影響(如果有的話)?謝謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Francisco. Okay. In the US, look, I mean, yes, you're right. Provisions are better than we expected. And that's because even though the cost of risk has normalized, we continue to see a trend after 90 days delinquency, which I have always -- every single quarter, I explained this, but we're still surprised that it's still around 60% or a little less than 60%.
謝謝你,Francisco。好。在美國,你看,我的意思是,是的,你說得對。提存(provisions)比我們預期的更好。這是因為即使風險成本已經正常化,我們仍然看到逾期90天之後的趨勢——我一直以來每一季都解釋這點——但我們仍然驚訝它仍然在60%左右或略低於60%。
So what's been going on is customers are coming back to us. And after 90 days delinquency, they try to get regular. They pay us a little bit. They try to maintain it, and that's what has helped us to sustain that. Also, it's very important that -- and I also explained the trend that we were coming down a little bit, if you saw, in terms of origination in Prime.
所以目前發生的是,客戶正在回到我們這邊。在逾期90天之後,他們會嘗試恢復正常。他們會先付一點給我們。他們嘗試維持住,而這正是幫助我們得以維持這種狀況的原因。另外,非常重要的是——我也解釋過我們在承作趨勢上稍微下降了一點,如果你有看到的話——就Prime(優質客群)放款的承作而言。
In Prime, we have stabilized that. It's at 38%, and it continues to grow because we have new contracts with some of the OEMs that are basically helping us out to sustain the Prime. What is important also to see that is that after the March 1, all of our outer portfolio is being financed by our own deposits. Given that Openbank help us with EUR11 billion of now new deposits, all of our portfolio is now not dependent on wholesale funding. That has basically given us an extra margin. And that basically will help us to get to the RoTE that we promised you in the US towards 18% when we have Webster, et cetera, towards the end of '28.
在 Prime 方面,我們已經把它穩定下來了。目前是 38%,而且仍在持續成長,因為我們與部分 OEM 簽了新合約,基本上有助於我們維持 Prime 的表現。另外也很重要的是要看到,3 月 1 日之後,我們所有的外部投資組合都由我們自有存款來融資。鑑於 Openbank 為我們帶來目前新增的 110 億歐元存款,我們整個投資組合現在不再依賴批發融資。這基本上為我們帶來了額外的利差空間。而這也將幫助我們在美國達到先前向各位承諾的 RoTE,當我們完成 Webster 等事項後,於 2028 年底左右朝 18% 邁進。
So the US, all in all, basically is going well. The cost of risk, low employment is of the essence in order to sustain that cost of risk and we believe is going well. In terms of risk-taking, what you have seen is that, yes, we have increased a little bit because we are lending to midsize corporates. We believe the market is basically helping us a little bit. We see better margins. And also, we see some opportunities in CIB in the sectors that we know very well, basically energy, there is a huge opportunity there. We see some projects in project finance that are being pretty good. And also the market has been very strong surprisingly in the US.
所以整體而言,美國業務基本上進展良好。風險成本方面,低失業率是維持風險成本的關鍵,我們認為目前情況良好。就承擔風險而言,各位看到的是:是的,我們略有增加,因為我們在對中型企業放款。我們認為市場基本上也在一定程度上支持我們。我們看到更好的利差。此外,我們也在 CIB、也就是我們非常熟悉的產業領域看到一些機會,基本上是能源,那裡有很大的機會。我們看到一些專案融資的案子表現相當不錯。而且美國市場的強勁程度也出乎意料。
So all in all, that's what we -- but we are very much under control, very disciplined in the sectors we're investing. So we basically don't foresee any situation. NII in Brazil is basically because of the auto business. Openbank is actually doing very well, okay? We have increased a little bit the portfolio in that year. If you remember that I explained to you that we changed the mix, and that is giving us the extra margin and the extra NIM that you'll see in Brazil.
所以整體而言,這就是我們的情況——但我們的控管非常到位,且在投資的產業上非常自律。因此我們基本上不預見會出現任何狀況。巴西的 NII 主要是因為汽車業務。Openbank 的表現其實非常好,好嗎?我們在那一年把投資組合小幅擴大。如果你還記得我跟你解釋過,我們調整了組合配置,而這正帶來你在巴西會看到的額外利差與額外 NIM。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
No, if I may complement Brazil because I think the mix here is important. We are growing deposits year-on-year by 6% relative to loans, customer loans up 2%. So this is one of the objectives that we had for Brazil, which is improve the funding structure and the quality of our funding structure. Actually, yield on assets, it's up 68 basis points. Also cost of deposits, as we improve the quality of deposits, it's up 58 basis points.
不,如果我可以補充一下巴西,因為我認為這裡的組合配置很重要。我們的存款年增 6%,相較之下放款、也就是客戶貸款年增 2%。因此這是我們對巴西設定的目標之一,也就是改善資金來源結構以及資金來源結構的品質。事實上,資產收益率上升了 68 個基點。同時,隨著我們提升存款品質,存款成本也上升了 58 個基點。
So when we look at the margins, yes, they are slightly down, but what explains the customer NII performance is the fact that we are growing deposits more than loans. And again, this is one of the key strategic objectives in Brazil like it is in Mexico, which is improving our funding more customer deposits, less market dependence.
所以當我們看利差時,是的,它們略有下降,但客戶 NII 表現的原因在於我們的存款成長快於放款。再一次,這是巴西的關鍵策略目標之一,就像墨西哥一樣:改善我們的資金來源——更多客戶存款、更少對市場的依賴。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sorry, sorry, sorry. I forgot about the plan in Brazil. Yes. So look, we're working really close -- we're one of the banks that are working with the government in this plan for the credit cardholders that are basically trying to restructure the loans. So far in our negotiations with the government, I believe that the plan would be positive, okay, to help some of the people that are over indebted in Brazil.
抱歉、抱歉、抱歉。我忘了提巴西的那個計畫。是的。所以你看,我們與政府在這個計畫上合作得非常緊密——我們是與政府一起推動該計畫的銀行之一,這個計畫是針對信用卡持卡人,基本上是想要重整貸款。到目前為止,在我們與政府的協商中,我相信這個計畫會是正面的,好嗎?用來幫助巴西一些負債過重的人。
So in that regard, we will have a little bit more view on how the plan basically evolves towards the end of the week. But all in all, what we have seen is that the plan is going to be positive and it's going to help our people in order to be able to pay the debt in the credit card, and it's going to help us overall for what we have seen, but we still not have the final plans as of yet.
因此在這方面,我們會在本週末前對該計畫的進展有更清楚的掌握。但整體而言,我們看到這個計畫將是正面的,會幫助我們的民眾能夠償還信用卡債務;就我們目前所見,也會對我們整體有幫助,但我們目前仍尚未拿到最終方案。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much, Hector. We have the next question, please.
非常感謝你,Hector。我們請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Miruna Chirea, Jefferies.
Miruna Chirea,Jefferies。
Miruna Chirea - Analyst
Miruna Chirea - Analyst
Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my questions. Firstly, I wanted to ask on your expectations for the efficiency ratio for the first of 2026. If I take your revenue and cost guidance for 2026, it points to a cost-to-income ratio below 43% for the full year. And in Q1, you are at 42.8%. So how should we think about the efficiency ratio from here? Should we expect it to be broadly flat for the rest of the quarters? Or are there any ups or downs along the way that you would flag?
早安,非常感謝讓我提問。首先,我想問你們對 2026 年第一季效率比率的預期。如果我採用你們對 2026 年的收入與成本指引,推算全年成本收入比會低於 43%。而在第一季,你們是 42.8%。那麼接下來我們應該如何看待效率比率?我們是否應預期接下來幾季大致持平?或者在過程中是否有任何你們會提醒的上升或下降?
And then secondly, I just wanted to ask if you could let us know if you've made any changes to your ECL macro scenario this quarter? Or any changes to the weightings of the scenarios of any overlays for economic uncertainty? Thank you very much.
第二,我也想請問你們能否說明本季是否對 ECL 的宏觀情境做了任何調整?或者是否對情境權重、或針對經濟不確定性的任何額外調整(overlay)做了變更?非常感謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. In terms of efficiency, okay, you have seen that basically in the first quarter, '26, we have minus 1% in constant euros, that's minus 4% in real terms. Revenue grew around 6%. So you see an efficiency improvement of 3 percentage points to 42.8%, okay? And this is supported by the execution of ONE Transformation.
好的。就效率而言,你已經看到基本上在 2026 年第一季,我們以固定匯率歐元計成本下降 1%,以實質計下降 4%。收入成長約 6%。因此你看到效率提升了 3 個百分點,來到 42.8%,好嗎?而這是由 ONE Transformation 的執行所支撐的。
What we're doing here on basically concentrating on what I said. I mean, a lot of simplification, a lot of automation. Also, the global platforms are starting to be in some of the countries that is helping us out basically to spend a lot less money in terms of what we used to do in IT, instead of doing things 10 times, we do it in once and deploy it to all the countries.
我們在這裡做的,基本上就是聚焦在我所說的。也就是大量簡化、大量自動化。此外,全球平台也開始在部分國家落地,基本上幫助我們在 IT 方面花更少的錢;以前同樣的事情要做 10 次,現在做一次,然後部署到所有國家。
So we see that trend will continue to be, okay, are going to be in line with our goal of reducing cost in constant euros on '26, okay? So it's important. We aim to deliver an absolute cost down in cost and us every year assuming the impact of M&A. It's important to acknowledge that.
所以我們看到這個趨勢會持續,好嗎?並且會符合我們在 2026 年以固定匯率歐元降低成本的目標,好嗎?這很重要。我們的目標是在每一年都實現絕對成本下降,並且在假設併購(M&A)影響的情況下也能做到。這點需要特別說明。
And as we grow the customer base, we will execute next stage of ONE Transformation, as I explained to you, that's going to improve our efficiency from 45% in '25 to around 36% in '28. That would basically lower the cost base below EUR 27 billion in constant, which is basically what we're expecting to -- in terms of the macro.
而隨著我們擴大客戶基礎,我們將執行 ONE Transformation 的下一階段,正如我向你解釋的,這將把我們的效率從 2025 年的 45% 改善到 2028 年約 36%。這基本上會把成本基礎在固定匯率下壓到 270 億歐元以下,這也是我們對——就宏觀方面——的預期。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we are obviously monitoring very closely what's going on in the market. We have updated our macro scenarios. Relative to what we had three months ago when we did the budget, we now have a slightly lower GDP growth in Europe, maybe 0.2%, 0.3%. And with a likely increase in rates to 2.5% at some point next year. No longer we are looking for lower rates in the US in the near term, but there will be countries that might benefit from the current situation, like Brazil or Mexico, net exporters of oil products.
是的,我們當然非常密切地監控市場正在發生的事情。我們已更新了宏觀情境。相較於三個月前我們做預算時的假設,我們現在對歐洲 GDP 成長的預期略低,可能低 0.2%、0.3%。並且預期明年某個時點利率可能上升到 2.5%。我們不再預期美國短期內會降息,但也會有一些國家可能從目前情勢中受益,例如巴西或墨西哥,作為油品的淨出口國。
So net-net, these are small changes that do not change fundamentally the outlook for our business in terms of growth in revenues, customers, profitability. So yes, we've updated the models -- but given our diversification, and as I mentioned in my presentation, it is in these times where the value of diversification is more evident. And in this case, we don't think we need to change our outlook.
因此總體來看,這些都是小幅變動,並不會從根本上改變我們在收入成長、客戶成長、獲利能力等方面的業務展望。所以是的,我們更新了模型——但鑑於我們的多元化,且如我在簡報中提到的,正是在這種時期,多元化的價值更為明顯。在這個情況下,我們認為不需要改變我們的展望。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much. Can we get the next question, please?
非常感謝。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.
Carlos Peixoto,CaixaBank。
Carlos Peixoto - Analyst
Carlos Peixoto - Analyst
Yes, hi, good morning. So a couple of questions from my side as well. So basically, on the capital front, just a quick one in terms of regulatory impacts, how much you expect until year-end?
是的,您好,早安。我這邊也有幾個問題。基本上先從資本面來看,關於監管影響,請問你們預期到年底大概會有多少?
Then on the Corporate Center, if you could give us some visibility on what's under the other income caption on the revenue side and also the rationale behind the tax rate this quarter, which was -- well, the tax yield this quarter, which was more meaningful than usual in this one.
接著關於企業中心(Corporate Center),能否請你們多提供一些能見度:在收入端「其他收入」這個科目底下包含哪些內容?另外,本季的稅率背後的原因也想請教一下——也就是本季的有效稅負(tax yield),在這一季比平常更顯著。
And then just finally, if I may, on Spain, if you could share some guidance on your view on the outlook for NII and also for cost of risk. Thank you very much.
最後,如果可以的話,關於西班牙,能否分享一下你們對淨利息收入(NII)以及風險成本(cost of risk)前景的看法與指引?非常感謝。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Morning, Carlos. Capital, we expect regulatory charges probably between 10 basis points to 20 basis points from here till year-end, the next three quarters, less than 20 basis points. The corporate center. In the other income line, we have the evaluation of the impact of the updated valuation of Marlin and some equity stakes.
早安,Carlos。資本方面,我們預期從現在到年底,監管資本扣減(regulatory charges)大概會在10個基點到20個基點之間;也就是接下來三個季度,少於20個基點。至於企業中心。在其他收入這一行,我們包含了對Marlin最新估值更新所帶來影響的評估,以及部分股權投資(equity stakes)的估值影響。
And finally, on Spain, I will comment quickly on NII, and I will let Hector comment on the general outlook. We've had a very good performance in NII in Spain in the first quarter. Basically, the ALCO strategy, the hedging that we've been conducting on the asset side, the forward starts from mortgages, floating liabilities, all of that strategy that we started a couple of years ago, it's actually contributing a lot.
最後談西班牙,我先簡單評論一下淨利息收入(NII),再請Hector補充整體展望。我們在第一季西班牙的NII表現非常好。基本上,ALCO策略、我們在資產端所做的避險、房貸的遠期起息(forward starts)、浮動負債等——這些我們幾年前開始推動的策略,確實貢獻很大。
But the most important factor is the extremely good management of our deposits. The cost of deposits in Spain is being kept under control, while we are growing volumes. We are actually growing asset market share in deposits substantially basically because we are growing payroll. We are adding hundreds of thousands of payrolls every year, and this is bringing very good quality deposits. This is sustainable. This is structural from our outlook for NII in Spain is up year-on-year, mid -- low to mid-single digits increase in NII in Spain in 2026.
但最重要的因素,是我們對存款的管理非常到位。在西班牙,存款成本被控制住,同時我們的量還在成長。我們的存款資產市占率其實在大幅提升,主要是因為我們的薪轉(payroll)在成長。我們每年新增數十萬筆薪轉,這帶來非常高品質的存款。這是可持續的。這是結構性的;因此我們對西班牙NII的展望是年增,2026年西班牙NII預期將有中個位數偏低到中段的成長。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Jose. I think it's important to tell you, Carlos, that I mean, Spain is the one that is much more advanced in terms of ONE Transformation, okay? These guys are doing a really good job in terms of a lot of simplification, automation in everything that we're doing. And also concentrated in the most important part of ONE Transformation, which is customer experience and primacy on the accounts, okay?
謝謝你,Jose。我想很重要的是要跟你說,Carlos,西班牙在ONE Transformation方面是進度最超前的,好的?他們在我們所做的各項工作上,包含大量的簡化與自動化,都做得非常好。而且也聚焦在ONE Transformation最重要的部分,也就是客戶體驗,以及帳戶的主辦行地位(primacy on the accounts),好的?
As Jose was explaining to you, we get a lot of payrolls right now, and we're growing really the number of customers in a substantial way. But the most important thing is that we're getting the transactional deposits. Deposits in Spain grew 6% year-on-year. And this is key to the business and for the ONE Transformation that we're executing in the country, okay? So retail is doing a pretty good job in that sense, and we'll continue to do so. As you know, also, we have a very good franchise on the corporate side. We continue to concentrate on that one to compete really hard because the market is very competitive in Spain.
如同Jose跟你解釋的,我們現在取得很多薪轉,客戶數也在顯著成長。但最重要的是,我們拿到的是交易性存款(transactional deposits)。西班牙的存款年增6%。這對業務以及我們在該國推動的ONE Transformation都非常關鍵,好的?因此零售端在這方面做得相當好,而且我們會持續下去。另外你也知道,我們在企業端也有非常好的特許經營優勢(franchise)。我們會持續聚焦並全力競爭,因為西班牙市場競爭非常激烈。
But not the lens, we believe there is an opportunity with everything that we're doing. And we have another important thing, CIB, even though it's a little less of what we were having in the first quarter of last year, it's performing really well with everything that is going on.
但儘管如此,我們相信透過我們正在做的一切,仍然存在機會。另外還有一個重要因素是CIB;即使相較去年第一季略少一些,但在目前的環境下仍然表現非常好。
So the combination of basically the corporate segment or the midsize corporates together with the products that we sell them in CIB, which is network benefits, it's helping us quite a lot to take Spain to the next level. So all in all, even though that you're going to see an increase in revenues, of course, was telling you also a decrease in cost, which will help us to get much better margins, okay?
因此,企業客群(包含中型企業)與我們在CIB提供給他們的產品結合起來——也就是網絡效益(network benefits)——正大幅協助我們把西班牙業務推向下一個層級。總體而言,即便你會看到收入增加,同時也會看到成本下降,這將幫助我們取得更好的利潤率,好的?
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Okay, the next question, please.
好的,請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.
Ignacio Cerezo,UBS。
Ignacio Cerezo - Analyst
Ignacio Cerezo - Analyst
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple of them. First one is on the CIB revenue sustainability into the rest of the year. If you can give us a little bit of color basically of potential risks. I mean, we're seeing lending growth, I think, is still in the 18% annual growth. I think in Spain, as we mentioned, actually stepping up the pace there.
您好,早安,謝謝讓我提問。我有幾個問題。第一個是關於CIB收入在今年剩餘期間的可持續性。能否請你們提供一些補充說明,特別是潛在風險。我的理解是放款成長仍約為年增18%。而且我想在西班牙,如我們提到的,成長速度其實正在加快。
I think we've seen a very strong performance of global markets. So just trying to understand actually to what extent the meetings are with revenue growth you're seeing -- sorry, earnings growth actually you're seeing in CIB is completely sustainable into the rest of the year?
我也看到全球市場(global markets)表現非常強勁。所以我想了解的是,你們在CIB看到的收入成長——抱歉,是獲利成長——在今年剩餘期間到底有多大程度是完全可持續的?
And then the second question is on headcount. We've seen, I think, 2,500 reduction in the quarter, around 11,000 in the year. So if you can give us some color basically about how to expect head count levels to evolve in the next nine months?
第二個問題是關於人力(headcount)。我們看到本季大概減少2,500人,全年約減少11,000人。能否請你們說明一下,未來九個月人力規模大概會如何演變?
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. First of all, I mean, CIB, we have really strong revenue performance, as you have seen. Basically, loan growth is 18%, as you said, is boosted NII across global markets, global bank in GTV, okay? So -- as we enter the '26, '27 M&A cycles, we are very well positioned to capitalize on an integrating anticipated upstream activity that we set. We are basically very much concentrated in industry coverage and in high advisory capabilities, mainly that, as you know, that we have hired in the US is helping us.
好的。首先,CIB的收入表現非常強勁,如你所見。基本上,放款成長如你所說是18%,這也推升了全球市場、全球銀行以及GTV的淨利息收入(NII),好的?因此,隨著我們進入2026、2027年的併購(M&A)循環,我們的定位非常好,可以把握我們所預期的上行活動增加。我們基本上非常聚焦於產業覆蓋(industry coverage)以及高階顧問能力(high advisory capabilities);如你所知,我們在美國所做的人才招募也正在提供很大幫助。
What's going on is a lot of business that used to go away from us when some of our customers in Spain, Portugal and so part of our used to do in the US. Now the hiring was basically because we have the capabilities. The same thing is in Latin America, okay? So that's why you see the fees basically so strong in the US because it's doing customer, I mean, business to our customers, and this exactly what we're doing.
目前發生的情況是:過去有不少業務會流失,因為我們在西班牙、葡萄牙等地的一些客戶,部分業務會在美國由其他機構承作。而我們之所以招募人才,主要是因為現在我們具備了相應能力。拉丁美洲也是同樣的情況,好的?所以你會看到美國的費用收入(fees)非常強,因為這是在為我們的客戶做業務,而這正是我們在做的事情。
Why are we growing a little bit in terms of the loans because we see an opportunity there with big customers, okay? So for example, in the oil industry, we decided to expand a little bit the credit lines. Why? Because the sector is strong, prices are going up, so let's take advantage of that. So those are the type of examples that we're doing. -- we are very much under control and monitoring every single part of the business and really following up first of all, profitability, control and everything monitoring the sectors in which we basically deploy capital. So it's very important to understand that.
至於為什麼我們在放款上會有一些成長,是因為我們看到大型客戶那邊有機會,好的?例如在石油產業,我們決定稍微擴大授信額度。為什麼?因為該產業景氣強、價格上升,所以我們要把握機會。這就是我們在做的例子類型。我們對業務的每一個部分都在嚴格控管與監測,首先是緊盯獲利性、風控,以及我們部署資本的各個產業部位的監控。因此理解這一點非常重要。
Global markets yes, you see a spike because usually, when there is volatility, you have opportunities, but it's mainly client visions that we do in global markets, okay? So you'll see that in trading, we have done pretty well, but this basically businesses with our customers, a lot of FX, a lot of hedging, as you can imagine, hedging interest rates. So explain (inaudible) derivatives we're selling to our customers. So we believe it's sustainable -- but let's see what happens.
全球市場,是的,你會看到一個高峰,因為通常在波動時會有機會,但我們在全球市場主要做的是客戶需求與觀點,好嗎?所以你會看到在交易方面,我們表現相當不錯,但這基本上是與客戶一起做的業務,很多外匯、很多避險,如你所想像的,利率避險。所以解釋一下(聽不清)我們賣給客戶的衍生性商品。所以我們相信這是可持續的——但讓我們看看接下來會發生什麼。
I mean, if the geopolitical situation complicates much we come in a reason, let's see what's going on. But so far, so good. I mean, it's doing well. And we will continue to basically be doing it in a very cautious way, but in the right way, okay?
我的意思是,如果地緣政治情勢變得更複雜,我們就有理由介入,看看情況如何。但到目前為止,一切都很好。我的意思是,表現不錯。而我們將繼續以非常謹慎、但正確的方式來做,好嗎?
And in terms of head count, yes, you're going to see -- I mean, head count is going to grow because of the acquisitions that we just and Western towards the end of the year. But nonetheless, we see opportunities in terms of what we're doing, again, ONE Transformation, okay? When you simplify, you automate processes, et cetera, you require less people than you do normally.
至於人員數量,是的,你會看到——我的意思是,人員數量會增加,因為我們剛完成的收購,以及在年底前完成的 Western(收購)。但即便如此,就我們正在做的事情而言,我們仍看到機會,再次強調 ONE Transformation(轉型),好嗎?當你簡化、把流程自動化等等,你所需要的人力會比平常更少。
And that's exactly what's going on. And that's why you see basically the decrease on some of the teams that we used to basically handle a lot of people and they're very good examples of that where we are automating a lot of processes that is helping us out to do it in a much better way.
這正是正在發生的事情。這也是為什麼你會看到某些團隊的人數下降;過去我們需要很多人來處理,而現在有非常好的例子顯示,我們正在把許多流程自動化,這幫助我們以更好的方式來完成。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much, Hector. Could we get the next question, please?
非常感謝你,Hector。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Sofie Peterzens, Goldman Sachs.
Sofie Peterzens,高盛。
Sofie Peterzens - Analyst
Sofie Peterzens - Analyst
Yeah, hi. Is Sofie from Goldman. So my first question is just on the asset rotation and -- you have done quite a lot on this front in recent years. I think back in 2024, you did around EUR60 billion last year, I think, EUR40 billion in this quarter, EUR10 billion. So if I do like back of the annual calculation, I get quite meaningful capital impact. What is the regulator saying about all this asset rotation? And how confident are you that you can roll it over, especially if we have a kind of deterioration in the macro environment?
是的,你好。我是高盛的 Sofie。我的第一個問題是關於資產輪換——你們近年在這方面做了很多。我記得在 2024 年,你們做了大約 600 億歐元;去年我想是 400 億歐元;而這一季是 100 億歐元。所以如果我用年度化方式回推計算,得到的資本影響相當可觀。監管機構對這些資產輪換怎麼看?以及你們有多大信心可以持續滾動操作,特別是如果宏觀環境出現某種惡化?
And then my second question would be on the outlook for Mexico. How do you see Mexico evolving? It was a little bit weaker this quarter. Would you consider any inorganic growth opportunities in Mexico in the next two to five years. So if you could comment on this. Thank you.
然後我的第二個問題是關於墨西哥的展望。你們怎麼看墨西哥的發展?這一季稍微弱一些。你們是否會在未來兩到五年考慮在墨西哥進行任何非有機成長的機會?所以如果你們可以評論一下。謝謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay, Sofie, so Jose will give you an overview of what we're doing in terms of rotating the balance sheet, et cetera, and I will give you an overview of Mexico. If you see Mexico had a really strong first quarter, okay? Let's see how our peers do, but I think that we're doing quite well vis-a-vis the market. We did the right things. We took the right decisions. We have the right mix. And we're pretty happy with the way the business is basically evolving.
好的,Sofie,Jose 會先就我們在資產負債表輪換等方面正在做的事情給你一個概述,而我會就墨西哥給你一個概述。如果你看墨西哥,第一季其實非常強勁,好嗎?我們看看同業表現如何,但我認為相較於市場,我們做得相當好。我們做了正確的事情。我們做了正確的決策。我們有正確的組合。而我們對業務目前的發展方式基本上相當滿意。
At this point, we don't believe that we need to do an inorganic transaction in Mexico to continue thriving. I think that the size that we have in the market almost 15% of the market basically give us enough space to do and to grow the business in a substantial way and in a very secure way, first of all. But also important that we told the market that we are now very concentrated on the TSB and Webster. So we told the market that we're not going to do any significant inorganic transaction for the next two years, and we will continue to do that.
就目前而言,我們不認為需要在墨西哥做一筆非有機交易來持續茁壯。我認為我們在市場上的規模——接近 15% 的市占——基本上給了我們足夠的空間,以相當可觀且首先非常穩健的方式來經營並成長。但同樣重要的是,我們也已告訴市場,我們現在非常專注於 TSB 和 Webster。所以我們告訴市場,未來兩年我們不會進行任何重大的非有機交易,而我們也會持續如此。
We need to concentrate on integrating those two. And so far, that's exactly what we're doing. And we see Mexico -- I mean, just to finish that evolving pretty well during the year. As you know, there is a negotiation of the TEMEC, that's the new NAFTA. If parties don't come to an agreement is automatically renew for one more year. But hopefully, we'll come to a thing. But I think it's both in the interest of all the parties basically to come to an agreement, given that Mexico is a very important component of what the US requires in order to be competitive, okay? So we are optimistic about it.
我們需要專注於整合這兩個項目。到目前為止,這正是我們在做的。而我們也看到墨西哥——我的意思是,最後補充一下——在今年內的發展相當不錯。如你所知,TEMEC(即新的 NAFTA)正在談判中。如果各方無法達成協議,將會自動再延長一年。但希望我們能達成某種結果。不過我認為,鑑於墨西哥是美國為了保持競爭力所需要的一個非常重要的組成部分,基本上各方都有達成協議的利益,好嗎?所以我們對此持樂觀態度。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, Sofie, you're right. We had a good quarter. We mobilized EUR10 billion in risk-weighted assets equivalent. So time is 40%, more or less at the same rate we did last year. One could have expected that with the current market conditions, the demand for these assets would have been less.
早安,Sofie,你說得對。我們這一季表現不錯。我們動員了相當於 100 億歐元的風險加權資產。所以按時間進度大約是 40%,大致與去年相同的節奏。在目前的市場條件下,人們原本可能預期對這些資產的需求會更低。
Well, probably because we've been doing this for a long time. Investors know our systems and the quality of the assets that we sell. I think we have a competitive advantage relative to other market participants. And we have actually seen an increase in the interest to participate in our transactions. And we have been selling credit in the first quarter at levels similar or even lower that we had last year for similar transactions.
嗯,可能是因為我們做這件事已經很久了。投資人了解我們的系統以及我們所出售資產的品質。我認為相較於其他市場參與者,我們有競爭優勢。而且我們確實看到參與我們交易的興趣增加。我們在第一季出售信貸的價格水準,與去年類似交易相當,甚至更低。
And again, we've seen an elevated interest in participating in our transactions, probably again, because we've been in the market for longer than others, we have a trusted and proven technology and the quality of what we sell is actually better.
再一次,我們看到參與我們交易的興趣升高,可能同樣是因為我們在市場上的時間比其他人更久,我們有值得信賴且經過驗證的技術,而我們所出售的資產品質其實更好。
Having said that, obviously, the market will dictate if the strong demand we saw in the first quarter will stay -- will remain for the rest of the year in the coming years. As we have discussed, we are obviously in a position to readjust our capital hierarchy immediately, if that was the case. But again, so far, the demand is actually very strong. And we think, looking at the people or the investors that are participating in our transactions that we are attracting a lot more interest because, again, we are a trusted party in these transactions.
話雖如此,顯然市場將決定我們在第一季看到的強勁需求,是否會在今年剩餘時間以及未來幾年持續——是否會維持。如我們所討論的,如果真是那樣,我們顯然可以立即重新調整我們的資本配置優先順序。但再次強調,到目前為止,需求其實非常強。而且從參與我們交易的人或投資人的角度來看,我們吸引到更多興趣,因為再次強調,我們在這些交易中是一個值得信賴的對手方。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much. Could we have the next question, please?
非常感謝。請問可以進行下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Britta Schmidt, Autonomous.
Britta Schmidt,Autonomous。
Britta Schmidt - Analyst
Britta Schmidt - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. I would be interested in your view on the outlook for longwall, specifically in Spain, Brazil and Mexico. In Spain, we had a negative bank lending service outcome, which is probably not a surprise, but how do you think this will impact loan growth going forward? And also in Brazil and Mexico, your GDP revisions, has there been any sort of adjustment that you're making for your projections?
是的,謝謝回答我的問題。我想了解你們對貸款成長(loan growth)展望的看法,特別是在西班牙、巴西和墨西哥。在西班牙,我們看到銀行放款服務(bank lending service)的結果為負,這可能不令人意外,但你們認為這將如何影響未來的放款成長?另外在巴西和墨西哥,你們對 GDP 的修正,是否有對你們的預測做出任何調整?
The second one will be on the wealth management fees. A very good quarter this quarter in the quarterly time line. Maybe you can comment on what's been driving that and to what level that is sustainable? And then just lastly, on the tax rate, which was, I guess, lower than expected this quarter, you're doing more interest on capital in Brazil, I guess, should we expect the tax rate to be hovering around the 25% for a while? Or what would be your expectation for the full year?
第二個問題是關於財富管理費用。這一季在季度時間序列上表現非常好。也許你們可以評論一下是什麼在驅動,以及這樣的水準可持續到什麼程度?最後,關於稅率——我想這一季低於預期——你們在巴西做了更多的資本利息(interest on capital),我想問我們是否應該預期稅率會在一段時間內徘徊在 25% 左右?或者你們對全年會有什麼預期?
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Britta. In terms of, I mean, loan growth basically in Spain, Mexico and Brazil, what we're doing is being, first of all, focused on profitability. It's very important that you know that. Also profitability, but we also take into account what we see and the trends of what's going on in terms of the cost of risk and what the difference in every single part of -- in every single country, okay? So for example, in Spain, we see an opportunity that right now, corporates and SMEs are basically in a good time. So we are trying to slow that and also a little bit of growth in CIB.
謝謝你,Britta。就貸款成長而言,基本上在西班牙、墨西哥與巴西,我們所做的是,首先聚焦於獲利能力。這點非常重要,請你了解。同樣是獲利能力,但我們也會把我們所觀察到的情況與趨勢納入考量,特別是風險成本的走勢,以及每一個環節——在每一個國家——之間的差異,好嗎?例如在西班牙,我們看到一個機會:目前企業與中小企業基本上處於相當好的時期。因此我們正嘗試放慢那一塊,同時在CIB也有一些小幅成長。
In Mexico, the same, the portfolio is very much concentrated on that side. We believe on the personal loans and credit cards, we need to be a little cautious given what's the dynamics in the market. But we'll see and we continue to see an opportunity of growth, and we will present the loan portfolio in Mexico this quarter because we saw an opportunity, mainly in CIB and midsize corporates. And we will continue that trend if we see market opportunities, okay?
在墨西哥也是一樣,投資組合非常集中在那一側。我們認為在個人貸款與信用卡方面,考量到市場動態,我們需要稍微謹慎一些。但我們會觀察,而且我們仍持續看到成長機會;本季我們會在墨西哥擴張貸款組合,因為我們看到了機會,主要在CIB與中型企業。如果我們看到市場機會,我們也會延續這個趨勢,好嗎?
In terms of Brazil, again, it's all about the mix. As Jose explained to you in detail, it's all about the mix and basically continue growing the deposit base to become much more competitive in that market and have much better margins. So in Brazil, we will continue basically to focus on that. Midsize again, one part that we're growing. And we are being very cautious. It's interesting, but you see the mix in Brazil in credit cards basically getting more complicated, but on personal loans, it's actually doing quite well.
至於巴西,同樣一切都取決於組合。如Jose已向你詳細說明,關鍵在於組合,並且基本上持續擴大存款基礎,以在該市場更具競爭力並取得更好的利差。因此在巴西,我們基本上會持續聚焦於此。中型企業同樣是我們正在成長的一個部分。而且我們非常謹慎。很有意思的是,你會看到巴西的信用卡組合基本上變得更複雜,但在個人貸款方面,實際上表現相當不錯。
And that's why because we are concentrated on the affluent segment of the population. So in Brazil, we are very keen on looking at the different segments of the market, and we are focused right now in the affluent given the current market circumstances and the way we see rates basically evolving. If we see that rates basically come down a little faster than we believe at this point, then we'll see if we access mass markets again, but we will be doing it in a very cautious way. What we're doing right now in Mexico and Brazil mostly, we're not on the open market on credit cards and personal loans. We're only lending to our customers.
這也是因為我們集中在較富裕族群。因此在巴西,我們非常重視觀察市場的不同客群區隔;在目前的市場情勢下,以及我們對利率演變的看法,我們現在聚焦於較富裕客群。如果我們看到利率下降的速度比我們目前所預期的更快一些,那我們會再評估是否重新切入大眾市場,但我們會以非常謹慎的方式進行。我們目前在墨西哥與巴西主要的作法是:在信用卡與個人貸款方面,我們不在公開市場放貸。我們只對自家客戶放貸。
So we're running the customer base, as Jose explained you, very much concentrated on payrolls because when you have the payrolls, you have all the information, you see what the customer does, you see the trends on how they consume and then we'll give them credit, okay? So we're only giving credit to our customers, not open market in those countries because we believe it's the right way to go. And it's exactly what's been working in order to sustain and to maintain the cost of risk at the levels that we would like, all right?
因此我們在經營客戶基礎時,如Jose向你解釋的,非常集中在薪轉客戶,因為當你掌握薪轉,你就掌握所有資訊:你看得到客戶在做什麼、看得到他們的消費趨勢,然後我們才會給他們授信,好嗎?所以在那些國家我們只對自家客戶授信,不做公開市場,因為我們相信這是正確的做法。而這也正是一直有效的方法,讓我們能把風險成本維持在我們希望的水準,對吧?
In terms of wealth management, fees will continue to go up. That trend will help us because we believe that the biggest delta that the group has is insurance. If you see how we play in insurance in every single country, if you see those in Brazil, in Spain, in Mexico, in Chile, in every single place we punch our weight. There is always another bank that basically has a large or have the lion's share of the market in that sense. So we believe it's a competitive edge that we need to slow, and we're very much concentrated on that. So you're going to see that as one of our main focus.
至於財富管理,手續費將會持續上升。這個趨勢會幫助我們,因為我們認為集團最大的差距(delta)在保險。如果你看我們在每個國家的保險布局——巴西、西班牙、墨西哥、智利,任何地方——我們都做到與自身規模相稱的表現。但在那個意義上,總是有另一家銀行規模更大或占有市場最大份額。因此我們認為這是一個我們需要縮小的競爭差距,而我們非常專注在這一點。所以你會看到這成為我們的主要重點之一。
We're basically hiring the best people that we have in the bank insurance market. We're putting them in the places that we believe we have the most opportunities. And even though in Private Banking and Wealth Management, we'll continue to do well. Insurance is the one that you should focus on because insurance is the biggest delta in the future, okay?
我們基本上正在聘用銀行保險市場中最優秀的人才。我們把他們配置到我們認為機會最大的地方。即使在私人銀行與財富管理方面,我們會持續表現良好,你應該關注的是保險,因為保險是未來最大的差距(delta),好嗎?
Then on the target, Jose?
那麼關於目標,Jose?
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
In the first quarter, taxes eased basically because of Brazil and Argentina, despite the end of the auto EV tax incentives in the US. As long as rates remain high in Brazil, we will continue to have a lower tax rate in Brazil. But again, the tax incentives in the US means that we will have higher taxes. So it's difficult to forecast, but I would presume that we are going to see a slight increase, gradual slight increase in the tax rate towards the end of the year. But again, it very much depends on the level of rates interest.
第一季稅負基本上有所緩解,主要因為巴西與阿根廷,儘管美國汽車電動車(EV)稅收優惠已結束。只要巴西利率維持高檔,我們在巴西就會持續有較低的稅率。但同樣地,美國的稅收優惠意味著我們的稅負會更高。因此很難預測,但我推測我們會在年底前看到稅率略為上升、逐步小幅上升。不過這仍很大程度取決於利率水準。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much. Very I think the next one is the last question. Could we get that, please?
非常感謝。我想下一位是最後一個問題。可以請他發問嗎?
Operator
Operator
Borja Ramirez, Citi.
Borja Ramirez,花旗。
Borja Ramirez Segura - Analyst
Borja Ramirez Segura - Analyst
Hello. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two quick questions, if I may. So firstly is on the I saw that your loan portfolio increased by around EUR6 billion in the quarter, excluding Poland, I think mainly in Spain. And I think that there may be upside related to your guidance for NII in Spain, particularly we have a higher interest rates. So that would be my first question.
你好。早安。非常感謝讓我提問。如果可以的話,我有兩個簡短問題。第一個是:我看到你們本季貸款組合增加了約60億歐元(不含波蘭),我想主要是在西班牙。而且我認為,特別是在利率較高的情況下,你們對西班牙淨利息收入(NII)的指引可能有上行空間。這是我的第一個問題。
And then my second question would be -- it's great to see the deposit trends in Spain and a higher share in the payrolls and lower cost of deposits. I would like to ask how -- how are you combining this with your Openbank platform? Is this also related to your digital capabilities from Openbank? And also, if you could remind me of your total deposits at Openbank at good level, how much are you catering in data? Thank you.
第二個問題是——很高興看到西班牙的存款趨勢、薪轉占比提高以及存款成本下降。我想請問你們如何——如何把這與你們的Openbank平台結合?這是否也與Openbank的數位能力有關?另外,如果你能提醒我Openbank的存款總額在一個不錯的水準,大概是多少?你們在數據方面提供了多少服務?謝謝。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Borja. Okay. On NII, Q1, we grew around 5% year-on-year. that's around 1% quarter-on-quarter in constant euros. This is basically supported that Jose was explaining by active margin management and the growing balances that we have, increase on deposits. Okay? What we believe is we're going to grow around low to mid-single digits, in compound average growth over '25 to '28 in constant euros.
謝謝你,Borja。好的。關於淨利息收入(NII),第一季我們年增約5%,以固定匯率歐元計算,季增約1%。這基本上如Jose所解釋,是由主動利差管理以及我們的餘額成長所支撐,並且存款增加。好嗎?我們認為,在固定匯率歐元計算下,從2025到2028年,我們的複合平均成長率將約為低到中個位數。
The macro assumptions include, as we already explained, the rate in Brazil continued to ease, okay, which is very important, okay, 13% over an of 26%, so we're not being that aggressive. Rates in the developed markets at Roseland is around 2% in Europe, 3.25% in the UK and 2.5% in the US. So no much more than that.
宏觀假設包括,如我們已經解釋過的,巴西利率持續下調,好嗎?這非常重要;從26%的高點降到13%,因此我們並沒有那麼激進。已開發市場的利率假設大致為:歐洲約2%、英國3.25%、美國2.5%。所以不會高出太多。
In 2026, for the two largest global businesses that we drive NII, we expect, first of all, in retail, low single-digit NII growth, very disciplined in deposit pricing, as you heard, modest volume growth and the contribution of the hedging strategy is supporting margins. And in Brazil, specifically, we see monetary easing as a tailwind of NII, but it's very important that you understand that the key central part of our strategy is primacy and primacy is transactional deposits. And ONE Transformation is all about this, and we will continue to focus on that, and that will help us, okay?
在2026年,對於我們推動淨利息收入(NII)的兩大全球業務,我們預期:首先在零售業務方面,NII將呈現低個位數成長;在存款定價上非常自律,如你所聽到的;溫和的量能成長,以及避險策略的貢獻將支撐利差。而在巴西方面,具體而言,我們看到貨幣寬鬆將成為NII的順風,但非常重要的是你要理解,我們策略的核心關鍵是「主往來(primacy)」,而主往來就是交易型存款。而ONE Transformation就是圍繞這一點,我們會持續聚焦於此,這將會幫助我們,好嗎?
In the other business is the outlook on Openbank. We expect mid-single-digit NII growth in Europe, where we have hedged our exposure to higher rates and NII will be supported by margin management. In the US, we will benefit from the lower funding cost and higher yields on loans that we remain focused on profitability.
在其他業務方面,是對 Openbank 的展望。我們預期歐洲的淨利息收入(NII)將呈現中個位數成長;我們已對較高利率的曝險進行避險,而 NII 也將受惠於利差管理的支撐。在美國,我們將受惠於較低的資金成本,以及我們持續聚焦獲利能力之放款所帶來的較高收益率。
It's very important to understand what I said when I was talking about the US business that now after March 1 is fully funded by our deposits. That will enable us to have much better margins for all the year and on. And we'll continue and Openbank has been an important part of that because, for example, open back deposits in the US is around EUR11 billion already. So that basically tells you exactly what our strategy is focused on and focusing again deposits and much more than that in transactional deposits.
非常重要的是要理解我在談到美國業務時所說的:現在在 3 月 1 日之後,我們的美國業務已完全由我們的存款提供資金。這將使我們在全年及往後都能擁有更好的利差。我們也會持續推進,而 Openbank 一直是其中的重要一環,因為例如 Openbank 在美國的存款目前已約 110 億歐元。因此,這基本上清楚地告訴各位我們的策略重點是什麼:再次聚焦於存款,且更進一步聚焦於交易型存款。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
If I may complement, Borja. As you know, we merged Santander Consumer Finance with Openbank. So now Openbank includes all our consumer business. Openbank Europe has EUR82 billion in deposits. And the US Consumer US, which is Openbank US has EUR50 billion -- EUR51 billion in deposits in total. So that's the right way to look at this because again, we've merged the consumer business with Openbank and then both business operate together. So EUR51 billion -- dollar, not euros in this case, in the US, EUR82 billion in Europe.
如果我可以補充一下,Borja。如各位所知,我們已將 Santander Consumer Finance 與 Openbank 合併。因此現在 Openbank 已涵蓋我們所有的消費金融業務。Openbank 歐洲的存款為 820 億歐元。而美國的消費金融業務,也就是 Openbank US,存款總額為 500 億歐元——510 億的存款總額。所以這才是正確的看法,因為我們再次強調:我們已將消費金融業務與 Openbank 合併,兩項業務現在是一起運作。因此在美國是 510 億——這裡是美元,不是歐元;在歐洲是 820 億歐元。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
I think we might have one more question on the line. Can we please check if we have another question?
我想線上可能還有一個問題。我們可以請確認是否還有下一個提問嗎?
Operator
Operator
Pablo de la Torre, RBC Capital.
RBC Capital 的 Pablo de la Torre。
Pablo De la Torre Cuevas - Equity Analyst
Pablo De la Torre Cuevas - Equity Analyst
Thank you for taking my question. I just had one on your UK trends, if I may. So I know your comments regarding the efficiency improvements in the country, but trends for retail volumes, especially in deposits seem to lag a bit the domestic banks. So cost of deposits were up in the quarter, NIM was down quarter-on-quarter. You also seem to be pricing rather competitively your front book deposits at the moment.
謝謝讓我提問。如果可以的話,我想問一個關於英國趨勢的問題。我知道你們對於該國效率改善的評論,但零售量的趨勢,特別是存款方面,似乎稍微落後於本土銀行。因此本季存款成本上升,淨利差(NIM)較上季下滑。你們目前對於新增(front book)存款的定價看起來也相當具有競爭性。
I just wanted to know when you expect to see the NIM in the UK to inflecting the key moving parts there for the rest of the year, including any expected changes in trends post the TSB integration? And if I may, just if you can give us an update on your UK structural hedge.
我想了解你們預期英國的淨利差何時會出現拐點,以及今年剩餘期間的關鍵驅動因素,包括 TSB 整合後趨勢可能出現的任何變化?另外,如果可以的話,也請更新一下你們英國的結構性避險(structural hedge)狀況。
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Let me give you a little bit a brief idea on what the trends are. First of all, the UK market and actually was the last week is very competitive on deposits. I mean we're killing each other for deposits. Why? Because, I mean, you know that people believe that rates are going to go up and it's very competitive in that sense. And we believe that it's much better to cover ourselves and capture a little bit more of deposits given the trends that we see on the market.
好的。我先簡要說明一下目前的趨勢。首先,英國市場——其實就在上週——在存款方面競爭非常激烈。我的意思是,我們彼此都在為了存款而激烈競爭。為什麼?因為你知道,大家都認為利率還會上升,所以在這方面競爭非常激烈。而我們認為,鑑於我們看到的市場趨勢,最好是先做好防護並多吸收一些存款。
Nonetheless, and I don't want to talk openly have different strategies of what we're going to do in that market, okay? We're doing exactly the same as seen the rest of the other markets. We're increasing -- there are two ways of basically getting the deposits in every single market. One is paying for them, but the most important one is customer experience, and we're working really on that. So we're going to be able to deploy or one app towards the second half of the year. We're working really hard on that.
儘管如此,我也不想公開談論我們在該市場將採取的不同策略,好嗎?我們做法其實與其他市場看到的完全一致。基本上在每個市場取得存款有兩種方式。一種是付出更高的價格,但更重要的是客戶體驗,而我們正在這方面下很大功夫。因此我們將能在今年下半年推出(部署)一個 App。我們正在非常努力地推進。
That basically would enable us to have a much better customer experience, and we'll focus our customers to basically become their primary bank -- and that's basically when you get the transactional deposits into account and you get better structure of deposits in there, and we're working towards that, okay? We're going to be very much concentrated on that.
這基本上將使我們能提供更好的客戶體驗,而我們會引導客戶把我們作為主要往來銀行——也就是在那時,你會把交易型存款帶進來,存款結構也會更好;我們正朝這個方向努力,好嗎?我們會非常專注在這一點上。
Second, the TSB mixture is going to help us quite a lot. One of the good things that TSB has is very sticky deposit base and actually much more deposit on loans, and that basically helps us to have a much better structures in terms of deposits. Now with TSB, we're going to be the third largest bank in the UK with current accounts. So that basically is going to help us a lot in terms of managing in a much better way what we have and manage our deposit base in a much profitable way, if I may say.
第二,TSB 的組合將對我們有很大幫助。TSB 的優點之一是其存款基礎非常黏著(穩定),而且存款相對於放款更多,這基本上有助於我們在存款結構方面做得更好。在納入 TSB 之後,我們將成為英國以活期帳戶(current accounts)計的第三大銀行。因此,這將在管理方面對我們幫助很大,使我們能以更好的方式管理現有資源,並以更有利可圖的方式管理我們的存款基礎,如果我可以這麼說的話。
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Jose Antonio Garcia Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer
Good morning Pablo, let me give you some numbers because I'm not sure I understand your comments. Year-on-year, our total deposits are up average balances first quarter of this quarter relative to first quarter of last year is up 4%.
Pablo,早安。我提供一些數字,因為我不確定我是否理解你的評論。以年增來看,我們的總存款上升;本季第一季的平均餘額相較去年第一季增加了 4%。
So it's a very good performance, actually with a lower average cost. So the average cost of deposits is down quarter -- year-on-year in the first quarter of this year relative to the last quarter -- to the first quarter of last year despite that volumes are up 4%. Again, on the asset side, yield on assets goes down from 4 basis points or 5 basis points year-on-year. So the NII is affected by the higher volume -- higher growth in deposits than in loans.
所以這其實是非常好的表現,而且平均成本更低。因此,今年第一季相較去年第一季,存款平均成本年對年下降,儘管存款量增加了 4%。同樣地,在資產端,資產收益率年對年下降 4 個基點或 5 個基點。因此,NII 受到影響,是因為存款的成長幅度高於放款。
But again, this is part of the strategy that Héctor was just explaining. We are -- we believe that we are doing well in deposit gathering in the UK. For the overall NII in the UK we have to take into account that the lengthening of the duration of the structural hedge has had a very limited impact in the first quarter. and this should kick in more in more size in the next couple of quarters. As the yield of the investments is around 4%. -- currently 3.8% in the first quarter.
但再次強調,這是 Héctor 剛才所說策略的一部分。我們——我們認為我們在英國的存款吸收表現良好。至於英國整體 NII,我們必須考量結構性避險久期拉長在第一季的影響非常有限,而這在接下來一兩季應會以更大的幅度開始反映。因為投資的收益率約為 4%——第一季目前為 3.8%。
So we would expect the NII in the UK to actually improve in the next few quarters as again, we continue to improve the funding mix and the quality of our funding in the UK, growing deposits, we think at least in line, if not more than the market.
因此我們預期英國的 NII 在接下來幾季實際上會改善;同時,我們也會持續改善英國的資金來源組合與資金品質、擴大存款,我們認為至少會與市場同步成長,甚至可能高於市場。
The structural hedge, well, we have more or less flat in the quarter at around GBP101 billion. The duration 2.5 years, the yield is 3.0%. And the loans that we are buying. As you know, we are lengthening the structural hedge buying between 5- to 10-year bonds more or less the interest rate curve is pretty flat at around 4%. So we would expect this strategy to actually add to NII in the UK in the coming quarters.
至於結構性避險,本季大致持平,約為 1,010 億英鎊。久期為 2.5 年,收益率為 3.0%。以及我們正在買入的貸款。如各位所知,我們正在拉長結構性避險,買入約 5 到 10 年期的債券;利率曲線大致相當平坦,約在 4% 左右。因此我們預期這項策略在未來幾季將為英國的 NII 帶來增益。
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Raul Sinha - Global Head - Shareholder and Investor Relations
Thanks very much, Héctor and Jose. This concludes our Q1 conference call. Thanks very much for your participation. And if you've got any further follow-ups, the Investor Relations team is available at your disposal.
非常感謝,Héctor 與 Jose。我們第一季電話會議到此結束。非常感謝各位的參與。若各位還有任何後續問題,投資人關係團隊隨時為各位服務。